Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

Every year, the International Rescue Committee publishes an emergency watchlist, an assessment of the 20 countries at greatest risk of humanitarian emergency. According to the IRC's report for 2024, the scope of this year's challenges is broad: Gaza and the West Bank rank only second on the watchlist, behind Sudan. And Ukraine, Syria, Yemen, and Afghanistan don't even make the top ten. In this week's podcast, recorded at the World Economic Forum in snowy Davos, Mark Leonard welcomes David Miliband, former British foreign secretary, now president and CEO of the IRC and an ECFR council member, to discuss the organisation's priorities for 2024. How can Europe address this year's crises? What will happen if we do not act? This podcast was recorded on 18 January 2024. Bookshelf: Hidden Potential: The Science of Achieving Greater Things | Adam Grant Wavewalker: Breaking Free | Suzanne Heywood

Change is inevitable, and so is our beloved predictions episode. As always, Mark Leonard and ECFR's research director Jeremy Shapiro start the year off by revisiting the ten predictions they made last year and then look into their crystal ball at the forces that will shape the upcoming one. Their predictions for 2023 left them with a score of 7/10. Will they do better this year? Let us know if you think they missed something! You can write your own predictions to mark.leonard@ecfr.eu. This podcast was recorded on 9 January 2024

This month, ECFR's Africa Forum brought together African and European policymakers and thinkers for discussions on the two continents' strategic partnerships in the changing global order. In this new episode, Jeremy Shapiro welcomes the head of ECFR's Africa programme, Theo Murphy. They are joined by ECFR visiting fellow, Adebayo Olukoshi, who is a distinguished research professor at the Witts School of Governance in South Africa; and Brian Kagoro, managing director of programmes at the Open Society Foundations. How do Africans view Europe and the EU's role in the world? What steps can Europeans take to improve their relationships in Africa? Which powers are competing with Europeans for attention in Africa? And what is the EU's unique selling proposition? This episode was recorded on 12 December, 2023. Bookshelf: Keepers of the Flame: Understanding Amnesty International The First Black Slave Society: Britain's “Barbarity Time” in Barbados, 1636-1876 | Hilary McD. Beckles

Going into the holiday season, the mood among Ukraine's supporters far from festive. It is difficult to escape a sense that general war fatigue is kicking in, as Europeans bicker over military aid, dysfunction paralyses the US Congress, and the war in Gaza continues to hog the world's attention. What is more, the frontiers of the Ukraine war have barely budged since last year. In this week's episode, Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Michael Kofman, senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment's Russia and Eurasia programme, and Gustav Gressel, senior policy fellow at ECFR. What is the current state of the war? Whatever happened to Ukraine's much-heralded counteroffensive? And what steps can the West take to help Ukraine prepare for what 2024 might have in store? This episode was recorded on 4 December, 2023 Bookshelf: The Seven Moons of Maali Almeida by Shehan Karunatilaka Before the West. The Rise and Fall of Eastern World Orders by Ayşe Zarakol

Second only to the United States, the Gulf countries have emerged as key players in the Israel-Hamas war. Qatar has been a crucial go-between in negotiating the recent hostage return and seven-day ceasefire, but has also come under fire for its chummy relationship with Hamas. The United Arab Emirates, for its part, has maintained a studious neutrality and appears more keen on preserving economic ties with Israel than getting pulled into the conflict. And as the region's biggest player, Saudi Arabia could still play a decisive role in bringing Israelis and Palestinians to the negotiating table after the war ends (at least the Biden administration hopes so). What is at stake for the Gulf? And is there a constructive role for the region's countries to play as Israel continues its fight against Hamas amid mounting international criticism? In this week's episode, Jeremy Shapiro welcomes ECFR visiting fellow, Cinzia Bianco, and senior policy fellow, Hugh Lovatt to discuss the role of the Persian Gulf in the ongoing conflict in Gaza. This podcast was recorded during the Doha Forum on 8 December 2023. Bookshelf: Emperor of Rome: Ruling the Ancient Roman World | Mary Beard Seeking Stability Amidst Disorder: The Foreign Policies of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, 2010-20 | Tobias Borck

“Digital empires” – the geopolitical entities that wield their influence and control in the digital landscape – shape much of how we interact with the online world. Currently, the United States, China, and the European Union are taking the lead, with their substantial investments in technology, innovation, and digital infrastructure, and their efforts to shape and regulate the digital economy. In this week's episode, Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Anu Bradford, author and Henry L. Moses professor of law and international organization at Columbia University, to discuss her new book “Digital Empires: The Global Battle to Regulate Technology”. In it, she argues that the global regulatory battle between the US, China, and the EU is intensifying, as they try to rein in powerful tech companies while attempting to expand their influence in the digital world. What role do the companies being regulated have to play? Do they have any agency in this great regulatory game? What about the rest of the world's digital influence? Bookshelf: Digital Empires: The Global Battle to Regulate Technology | Anu Bradford Slow horses - Apple TV

The West perceives Russians as either indifferent or supportive of the war being waged on their doorstep. But a sharp decrease in on-the-ground reporting since February 2022 means that the country has become poorly understood. In this week's episode, Jeremy Shapiro welcomes senior policy fellow Kadri Liik and Valerie Hopkins, an international correspondent for The New York Times covering the war in Ukraine as well as Russia and the countries of the former Soviet Union. Together, they discuss how Russian society really sees the war in Ukraine. How long will Putin be able to sustain the war effort while keeping public dissent to a minimum? And three months after disposing of Prigozhin, how solid is Putin's grip on power? Bookshelf: War and Punishment | Mikhail Zygar In Different Years | Anatoly Adamishin

Since the war in Gaza, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has raised eyebrows among his Western allies for his strident criticism of Israel and refusal to condemn Hamas. Likewise, the atmosphere in Turkey has been heated, with attempts to storm an airbase hosting US troops as well as the Israeli consulate in Istanbul. In this week's episode, Jeremy Shapiro welcomes senior policy fellow Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institute, and Dimitar Bechev, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and the director of the European Policy Institute in Sofia. Together, they look beyond the heated rhetoric and street politics and discuss what the war means for Turkey's foreign policy. Where do Israel-Turkey relations stand now? Could Turkey play a role similar to Qatar's? How are US officials reacting to Turkey's response? This podcast was recorded on 21 November 2023. Bookshelf: Odessa: Genius and Death in a City of Dreams | Charles King American Prometheus: The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer | Kai Bird, Martin J. Sherwin Virtual Politics: Faking Democracy in the Post-Soviet World | Andrew Wilson

ECFR's new global opinion poll reveals that many people outside the West want Europe and the US in their lives for all they have to offer – but that does not translate into full political alignment. In this week's episode, ECFR's research director Jeremy Shapiro welcomes council member Timothy Garton Ash, who is a bestselling author and professor of European studies at Oxford University; Ivan Krastev, who is a founding board member of ECFR and chairman of the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia; and ECFR's director Mark Leonard to discuss how public sentiment can guide Europe in building partnerships for the world of tomorrow. What is the basis for the West's soft power? What sort of offer is China making the world? And whom do countries in the ‘global south' prefer when faced with a choice between the West and China? This podcast was recorded on 7 November 2023. Bookshelf: Places of Mind: A Life of Edward Said | Timothy Brennan Environmental Political Theory | Steve Vanderheiden Les Aveuglés, comment Berlin et Paris ont laissé la voie libre à la Russie | Sylvie Kauffmann Liberalism against Itself: Cold War Intellectuals and the Making of Our Times | Samuel Moyn You Report to Me: Accountability for the Failing Administrative State | David Bernhardt

For Kyiv, the war in Gaza couldn't have come at a worse time. It has taken the global spotlight just as the fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces has reached a stalemate (as top Ukrainian general Valery Zaluzhny wrote in The Economist last week) and division in the US Congress threatens to sever its military aid lifeline. In this week's episode, Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR's research director, seizing control from Mark Leonard over the next few weeks, welcomes Gustav Gressel, senior policy fellow with the Wider Europe Programme focusing on Russia, and Kirill Shamiev, visiting fellow and expert in Russia's civil-military relations, domestic politics, and policymaking. Together, they discuss the consequences of the war in Gaza for the war effort in Ukraine. How has the Ukrainian government responded to this new crisis? What consequences will it have for the Ukraine war? And what can Europe do to manage an ever-growing list of crises in its neighbourhood? This podcast was recorded on 6 November 2023.

On 5 November 2024, America will elect its next president. As of now, the race for the White House is shaping up to be a replay of the 2020 presidential election – with Joe Biden and Donald Trump standing out as the likely candidates for their opposing parties. This time around, however, the United States' engagement in the Middle East and in Ukraine, coupled with its global competition with China, could play a significant role in defining the outcome of the election. In this week's episode, Mark Leonard welcomes ECFR's research director Jeremy Shapiro, who is also the director of ECFR's brand new US programme, and senior policy fellow Majda Ruge, who has worked extensively on US politics. Together, they discuss what America's foreign policy could look like after the 2024 election and how Europe could engage proactively with the next US president. What should we expect from a second Biden presidency? Or from a second Trump presidency? What should Europeans do to plan ahead? And how can ECFR's new US programme help them do so? This podcast was recorded on 1 November 2023. Bookshelf: The Wizard of the Kremlin: A Novel | Giuliano da Empoli

On 24 February 2022, Russia blindsided most of Europe with its all-out invasion of Ukraine. This forced an overdue reckoning for Europeans on the failures of their Russia policy and the realities of Vladimir Putin's agenda. In particular, France and Germany had been hoodwinked by promises of cheap Russian energy supplies, as well as the pipe dream of a common European security architecture with Moscow. In this week's episode, Mark Leonard welcomes ECFR board and council member, Sylvie Kauffmann, who is editorial director, lead writer, and columnist at Le Monde; and ECFR council member, Timothy Garton Ash, who is a bestselling author and professor of European studies at Oxford University, to discuss Kauffmann's new book “Les Aveuglés, comment Berlin et Paris ont laissé la voie libre à la Russie” (“The Blindsided: How Berlin and Paris Cleared the Way for Russia”). How and when could France and Germany have acted differently and changed the path of history? At what point was it clear that Putin was heading down this path? And why did Europeans, again and again, ignore the warning signs? Bookshelf: Les Aveuglés, comment Berlin et Paris ont laissé la voie libre à la Russie | Sylvie Kauffmann Homelands: A Personal History of Europe | Timothy Garton Ash

Poland is returning to European politics as a constructive player. The country's National Electoral Commission confirmed on Tuesday morning that the Polish opposition has gathered enough votes to form a government and end the Law and Justice party's eight-year rule of illiberalism and Eurosceptism. The results also hold two key lessons for Europe: a country's illiberal turn can be reversed, and polarisation is an insufficient tool to mobilise progressive voters. In this week's episode, Mark Leonard welcomes senior policy fellows Piotr Buras, head of ECFR Warsaw, and Jana Puglierin, head of ECFR Berlin, to understand what we can expect from Poland's new government and what Poland's return to the EU's centrist fold means for its neighbours and for Brussels. What options do Law and Justice have in opposition? What immediate consequences will the election results have for how Poland relates to the EU, to Germany, and to Ukraine? What effect will they have on the enlargement debate and on European elections next year? This podcast was recorded on 17 October 2023. Bookshelf: A Tale of Love and Darkness by Amos Oz Die Möglichkeit von Glück by Anne Rabe

On Saturday morning, Hamas carried out an unprecedented attack on Israel, firing thousands of rockets, but also infiltrating cities, towns, and kibbutzim in the south of the country. It is the first time a hostile power has taken Israeli territory since the Yom Kippur war in 1973. This surprise offensive – which has already killed more than 800 Israelis and left over 400 Palestinians dead in Gaza after initial Israeli military reprisals – marks a significant turning point in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In this special episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Israeli diplomat and strategist, Eran Etzion, who is a former head of policy planning at Israel's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and former deputy head of the country's National Security Council. They are joined by Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of ECFR's Middle East and North Africa programme, and ECFR senior policy fellow Hugh Lovatt to discuss what is behind Israel's intelligence failure and consider possible future scenarios. How did Hamas militants manage to infiltrate Israeli territory? What does this mean for the future of Abraham accords as well as prospects for Saudi-Israel normalisation? And for Netanyahu, and his hold on power? Finally, is there any role at all that Europeans can play in preventing a regional conflagration? This podcast was recorded on 9 October 2023. Bookshelf: How Europeans should respond to the Hamas offensive against Israel | Julien Barnes-Dacey, Hugh Lovatt

Last week, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, leader of Spain's People's Party, lost his second bid at leading the country's government. All eyes are now on Pedro Sánchez, acting prime minister and leader of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, as he tries to gather enough support to hold his office for another term. Across the continent, Poland is preparing for the next parliamentary election on 15 October – and the rising far-right party Confederation is set to swing the balance between right-wing incumbents Law and Justice, and the liberal opposition. In this week's episode, Mark Leonard welcomes senior policy fellows José Ignacio Torreblanca, head of ECFR Madrid, and Piotr Buras, head of ECFR Warsaw, to discuss how Spanish and Polish politics will affect Europe's political map, the bloc's support for Ukraine, the growing debate on enlargement, and next summer's European elections. Are mainstream parties in Poland willing to form a government with Confederation? Whose support will Pedro Sánchez need to form a new government, and what happens if he too fails? What is causing voters to flock to right-wing parties in Poland but punish them in Spain? How are Poland's pre-election debates on refugees and grain affecting European support for Ukraine? This podcast was recorded on 29 September 2023. Bookshelf: Free: Coming of Age at the End of History | Lea Ypi Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology | Chris Miller Społeczeństwo populistów | Przemysław Sadura, Sławomir Sierakowski

For the past few months, the United States has been trying to broker a groundbreaking bilateral deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Iran, meanwhile, is forging an ever closer and ever more dangerous partnership with Russia. Finally, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt were invited to join the BRICS this summer – and are turning more and more towards the east. In short, the Middle Eastern order has shifted towards multipolarity. In this week's episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh, senior policy fellow and deputy director of ECFR's Middle East and North Africa programme, and Alistair Burt, pro-chancellor of Lancaster University and former UK minister of state for the Middle East and North Africa. Together, they discuss the power dynamics that are shaping the Middle East's embrace of multipolarity. Who are the winners and losers in these power shifts? How are China and Russia exploiting them? And what can Europe do to pursue its own interests in a region that has become much more comfortable with hedging? This podcast was recorded on 12 September 2023. Bookshelf: A Year on from the Mahsa Amini Protests: Where Iran is headed and the Implications for Western Policy | Ellie Geranmayeh And then what?: inside stories of 21st-century diplomacy | Catherine Ashton Assad | Con Coughlin 1923 | Ned Boulting

In her state of the union address, European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, announced an anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese electric cars. This summer, the German government released its first comprehensive China strategy, noting that “China has changed, and therefore we must change our approach.” These events mark a turning point in EU-China relations. In this week's episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Janka Oertel, director of ECFR's Asia programme, to discuss her new book “End of the China illusion: How we must deal with Beijing's claim to power”, published by Piper Verlag (in German). What threats do today's China pose to Europe and to Germany? What are the West's biggest misconceptions about China? And what, really, does China want? This podcast was recorded on 20 September 2023. Bookshelf: Ende der China-Illusion: Wie wir mit Pekings Machtanspruch umgehen müssen | Janka Oertel Five Times Faster: Rethinking the Science, Economics, and Diplomacy of Climate Change | Simon Sharpe Lenin: The Man, the Dictator, and the Master of Terror | Victor Sebestyen

Global freedom has been declining for 17 years. Authoritarian turns are increasing, and current events – such as the rise of populism and Russia's war on Ukraine – are shaping the future of democracy across the globe. In this week's episode, Mark Leonard welcomes the president of the Open Society Foundations (OSF), Mark Malloch-Brown – who previously served as UN deputy secretary-general under Kofi Annan – to discuss open societies and OSF's role in promoting justice, democratic governance, and human rights worldwide. What are OSF's next steps in the new global reality? How could changes in the organisation's presence in Europe affect civil society on the continent, especially in places like Poland, Hungary, and Ukraine? And how crucial is 2024, a year of big elections in Europe and the United States, for defending the open society model? This podcast was recorded on 13 September 2023. Bookshelf: Open Society Barometer The Wide World | Pierre Lemaitre

War has returned to the European continent, putting many previous divisions into perspective. This has caused European leaders to think afresh about their politics – and raised the question of the United Kingdom's role in European foreign policy. Seven years after the Brexit referendum, the EU and the UK have finally resolved some of their differences through the Windsor Framework. The possibility of a reset between the UK and the EU on foreign policy could be on the horizon. In this year's mini-series, Mark Leonard and Susi Dennison examine what a reimagined EU-UK relationship might look like. In this seventh episode, Mark and Susi welcome ECFR senior policy fellow, Nick Witney, who previously served as the first chief executive of the European Defence Agency, and ECFR distinguished policy fellow, Camille Grand, who is a former NATO assistant secretary general. How have Brexit and then the war in Ukraine affected UK-EU defence cooperation? What potential is there for future collaboration in defence, especially in the areas of industry, technology, and energy? And could NATO act as a vehicle for a different kind of defence relationship between the UK and EU member state s? This podcast was recorded on 20 July 2023. Bookshelf: What Just Happened?! by Marina Hyde LeMay: The Life and Wars of General Curtis LeMay, by Warren Kozak The Bomber Mafia, by Malcolm Gladwell (Podcast)

War has returned to the European continent, putting many previous divisions into perspective. This has caused European leaders to think afresh about their politics – and raised the question of the United Kingdom's role in European foreign policy. Seven years after the Brexit referendum, the EU and the UK have finally resolved some of their differences through the Windsor Framework. The possibility of a reset between the UK and the EU on foreign policy could be on the horizon. In this year's mini-series, Mark Leonard and Susi Dennison examine what a reimagined EU-UK relationship might look like. In this sixth episode, Mark and Susi welcome former permanent secretary in the UK's Department for Exiting the European Union, Philip Rycroft, who prior to that held several roles in Westminster and Brussels, including in Leon Brittan's cabinet. How is post-Brexit Britan approaching trade deals and regulatory alignment with third countries? How has Brexit affected the movement of people and labour across borders? What are the implications of the Northern Ireland Protocol for the UK's relationship with the EU? And what challenges and opportunities does the UK face in the evolving global economy, particularly considering China's influence? This podcast was recorded on 20 June 2023. Bookshelf: North and South, by Elizabeth Gaskell

On 23 August, Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin's private jet crashed, leading Russian state media to declare his death. The enigmatic circumstances surrounding the event raise crucial questions about the incident itself, but also about its potential ramifications, which could extend well beyond Russia. In this special episode, Mark Leonard welcomes the head of ECFR's Africa programme, Theodore Murphy, senior policy fellow, Kadri Liik, and visiting fellows Pavel Slunkin and Kirill Shamiev to dissect the aftermath of the development. To what extent will the Wagner group be able to maintain its autonomy from the Kremlin following Prigozhin's death? How might Prigozhin's death affect the power dynamics within Russia's security apparatus and intelligence agencies? And what could the implications be for the future of Wagner, both in Ukraine and in Africa? The podcast was recorded on Thursday 24 August 2023. Bookshelf: The Redline podcast – episode 95: The Death of the US Dollar? Russian archive about the Revolution and the Civil War

War has returned to the European continent, putting many previous divisions into perspective. This has caused European leaders to think afresh about their politics – and raised the question of the United Kingdom's role in European foreign policy. Seven years after the Brexit referendum, the EU and the UK have finally resolved some of their differences through the Windsor Framework. The possibility of a reset between the UK and the EU on foreign policy could be on the horizon. In this year's mini-series, Mark Leonard and Susi Dennison examine what a reimagined EU-UK relationship might look like. In this fifth episode, Mark and Susi welcome Britain's former permanent representative to the EU, Ivan Rogers, who also served as David Cameron's advisor for Europe and as principal private secretary to Tony Blair. How could the evolving geopolitical landscape, particularly the US-China relationship, influence security dynamics in the EU and the UK? What challenges and opportunities might a new UK government face when rethinking the country's economic and financial relationship with the EU? In what areas is the UK and the EU's cooperation on rule-making asymmetrical, and how does that affect their ability to collaborate on various policy matters? This podcast was recorded on 19 July 2023. Bookshelf: Revolutionary Spring: Fighting for a New World 1848-1849, by Christopher Clark The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914, by Christopher Clark

War has returned to the European continent, putting many previous divisions into perspective. This has caused European leaders to think afresh about their politics – and raised the question of the United Kingdom's role in European foreign policy. Seven years after the Brexit referendum, the EU and the UK have finally resolved some of their differences through the Windsor Framework. The possibility of a reset between the UK and the EU on foreign policy could be on the horizon. In this year's mini-series, Mark Leonard and Susi Dennison examine what a reimagined EU-UK relationship might look like. In this fifth episode, Mark and Susi welcome Britain's former permanent representative to the EU, Ivan Rogers, who also served as David Cameron's advisor for Europe and as principal private secretary to Tony Blair. How could the evolving geopolitical landscape, particularly the US-China relationship, influence security dynamics in the EU and the UK? What challenges and opportunities might a new UK government face when rethinking the country's economic and financial relationship with the EU? In what areas is the UK and the EU's cooperation on rule-making asymmetrical, and how does that affect their ability to collaborate on various policy matters? This podcast was recorded on 19 July 2023. Bookshelf: Revolutionary Spring: Fighting for a New World 1848-1849, by Christopher Clark The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914, by Christopher Clark

War has returned to the European continent, putting many previous divisions into perspective. This has caused European leaders to think afresh about their politics – and raised the question of the United Kingdom's role in European foreign policy. Seven years after the Brexit referendum, the EU and the UK have finally resolved some of their differences through the Windsor Framework. The possibility of a reset between the UK and the EU on foreign policy could be on the horizon. In this year's mini-series, Mark Leonard and Susi Dennison examine what a reimagined EU-UK relationship might look like. In this fourth episode, Mark and Susi welcome Nick Butler, energy policy adviser at the Cavendish Laboratory, University of Cambridge, and the Faraday Institution, and previously senior policy advisor to former prime minister Gordon Brown and co-founder of the Centre for European Reform think tank. How does the EU-UK relationship sit in the context of global energy challenges and climate change? What areas of common interest exist between the UK and the EU in terms of energy storage, renewable energy development, and technological advancements? How can cooperation be strengthened on creating a more integrated and resilient energy market? This podcast was recorded on 19 July 2023. Bookshelf: The Long Journey of English: A Geographical History of the Language, Peter Trudgill

War has returned to the European continent, putting many previous divisions into perspective. This has caused European leaders to think afresh about their politics – and raised the question of the United Kingdom's role in European foreign policy. Seven years after the Brexit referendum, the EU and the UK have finally resolved some of their differences through the Windsor Framework. The possibility of a reset between the UK and the EU on foreign policy could be on the horizon. In this year's mini-series, Mark Leonard and Susi Dennison examine what a reimagined EU-UK relationship might look like. In this third episode, Mark and Susi welcome the Eurasia Group's managing director for Europe, Mujtaba Rahman, who previously served at the UK Treasury and the European Commission's directorate general for economic and financial affairs, to discuss what this renewal of relations might look like. How has Brexit affected the UK's economy? How can the UK negotiate a new agreement with the EU that avoids political difficulties around freedom of movement while still being attractive to the bloc? What areas of cooperation could the UK and the EU explore beyond the existing trade agreement? This podcast was recorded on 12 July 2023. Bookshelf: Johnson at 10: The Inside Story, by Anthony Seldon and Raymond Newell This is Europe: The Way We Live Now, by Ben Judah

War has returned to the European continent, putting many previous divisions into perspective. This has caused European leaders to think afresh about their politics – and raised the question of the United Kingdom's role in European foreign policy. Seven years after the Brexit referendum, the EU and the UK have finally resolved some of their differences through the Windsor Framework. The possibility of a reset between the UK and the EU on foreign policy could be on the horizon. In this year's mini-series, Mark Leonard and Susi Dennison examine what a reimagined EU-UK relationship might look like. In this second episode, Mark and Susi welcome David Lidington, who was the United Kingdom's longest serving minister for European affairs between 2010 and 2016, to discuss what this renewal of relations might look like. How can the Conservative and Labour parties ensure a constructive and forward-looking approach to the UK's relationship with the EU? Can bilateral relationships complement engagement with Brussels in navigating the UK's position in Europe? This podcast was recorded on 23 June 2023. Bookshelf: The Conservative Party After Brexit: Turmoil and Transformation, by Tim Bale What went wrong with Brexit: and what we can do about it, by Peter Foster Aubrey & Maturin series, by Patrick O'Brian

July has seen extreme weather events ravage all of the world's continents, reinforcing – yet again – the urgency of collective action on climate change. In this week's episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Kate Hampton, CEO of the Children's Investment Fund Foundation and former head of policy at Climate Change Capital to delve into the complexities of that action within a competitive global landscape – marked by inequalities between the global north and south. Together, they consider possible pathways towards compromises and how to empower sustainable transitions on the way to a resilient future. How can civil society and NGOs drive global climate action? What strategies can Europeans employ to navigate a fractured multilateral landscape in the face of climate change? And how can the West and the global south work together towards sustainable energy solutions? This podcast was recorded on 14 June 2023. Bookshelf: The Big Con: How the Consulting Industry Weakens Our Businesses, Infantilizes Our Governments, and Warps Our Economies, by Mariana Mazzucato How Big Things Get Done: The Surprising Factors That Determine the Fate of Every Project, from Home Renovations to Space Exploration and Everything In Between, by Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner

This week, the leaders of NATO member countries gathered in Vilnius for the organisation's annual summit. The summit addressed crucial issues and implications for international security. From Sweden's accession to NATO and Ukraine's aspirations for membership to new defence plans and security guarantees, this week's episode explores the summit's highlights and potential impact on the global security landscape. Mark Leonard welcomes Alex Stubb, former prime minister of Finland, Lykke Friis, former Danish climate minister and ECFR co-chair – all on ECFR's board of trustees – and Camille Grand, former assistant secretary general for defense investment at NATO and distinguished policy fellow at ECFR, to discuss the outcomes of the NATO summit in Vilnius. What were the main takeaways from the summit? What led to Erdogan's decision to greenlight Sweden's accession to NATO? What did the alliance offer Ukraine? And what are the key points of NATO's new defence plans? This podcast was recorded on 13 June 2023. Bookshelf: The Russo-Ukrainian War: The Return of History, by Serhii Plokhy The Unbearable Lightness of Being by Milan Kundera Guerre en Ukraine et nouvel ordre du monde by Michel Duclos

What does it mean to be patriotic in 2023? Following the significant population movements of recent years, leaders in European states are increasingly trying to foster a sense of identity that can hold together their diverse societies. In his recent book, “How to be a patriot: Why love of country can end our very British culture war”, Sunder Katwala draws on many years of research and scholarship in the UK to consider what collective identity without division, fear of immigration, and racism might look like. In this episode, he joins Mark Leonard to explore some identity-related dilemmas in post-Brexit Britain. How did immigration and European interact in the run-up to the 2016 referendum? And can the rest of Europe draw any lessons from the UK's experience? This podcast was recorded on 19 June 2023. Bookshelf: How to Be a Patriot: Why love of country can end our very British culture war? by Sunder Katwala Windrush: 75 Years of Modern Britain, by Trevor Phillips and Mike Phillips Black and British: a forgotten History, by David Olusoga

The past two days will surely go down in Russian history. What started on Saturday as an armed rebellion within Russia by Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner mercenaries ended in something of a whimper, with Vladimir Putin's former caterer-turned-warlord agreeing to leave for Belarus in exchange for some ambiguous concessions from the Kremlin. Was this a coup, a mutiny, a rebellion, or something else? What were Prigozhin's goals? What does this mean for Putin's domestic reputation and his political survival ? How will it affect Ukraine's ongoing counteroffensive? And how have Europeans responded? In this special episode, Mark Leonard welcomes head of ECFR's Wider Europe programme and senior policy fellow, Marie Dumoulin, senior policy fellow, Kadri Liik, and visiting fellows Pavel Slunkin and Kirill Shamiev to shed light on the weekend's events and discuss the new reality that has opened up in Russia.

War has returned to the European continent, putting many previous divisions into perspective. This has caused European leaders to think afresh about their politics – and raised the question of the UK's role in European foreign policy. Seven years after the Brexit referendum, the EU and the UK have finally resolved some of their differences through the Windsor Framework. The possibility of a reset between the UK and the EU on foreign policy could be on the horizon. In this year's mini-series, Mark Leonard and Susi Dennison examine what a reimagined EU-UK relationship might look like.   In this first episode, Mark and Susi welcome Anand Menon, professor of European politics and foreign affairs at King's College London and director of the UK in a Changing Europe initiative to discuss what this renewal of relations might look like. Which areas offer the most potential for fruitful collaboration? What challenges and opportunities might the reset bring for energy security, trade, and freedom of movement? Can bilateral relationships, like that between the UK and France, play a role in the reset?  This podcast was recorded on 9  June 2023.     Bookshelf :  Brexit Land by Maria Sobolewska and Robert Ford  Brexit and British Politics by Anand Menon and Geoffrey Evans  Where next? The future of the UK-EU relationship by Anand Menon

European citizens are adapting slowly to the new geopolitical landscape. But leaders have an opportunity to build public consensus on the EU's approach to China, the US, and Russia. ECFR's latest polling report – based on data from 11 EU member states – analyses what European citizens think about Europe's place in the world and its relationship to these other powers. In this week's episode, Mark Leonard welcomes the two authors of the report: Jana Puglierin, senior policy fellow and head of ECFR's Berlin office, and Pawel Zerka, senior policy fellow at ECFR, to discuss and analyse their results. What kind of relationship do Europeans want with Russia? How do they understand China's growing influence? And what do they expect from the future of transatlantic relations? This podcast was recorded on 14 June 2023.    Bookshelf: - Andrew Small, No Limits: The Inside Story of China´s War with the West - Timothy Garton Ash, Homelands: A Personal History of Europe -Georgi Gospodinov, Time Shelter

This week, European decision-makers and opinion-shapers gathered in Stockholm for ECFR´s annual council meeting. There, they discussed how democracy might survive the complex interaction of multiple overlapping crises: from covid-19 to climate change and Russia´s war on Ukraine. In this week´s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes ECFR trustee and director of the European Institute and professor of history at Columbia University, Adam Tooze, to examine the notion of polycrisis. What exactly does the term polycrisis mean, and what does it tell us about the present realities affecting Europe? Can we talk about “an age of polycrisis”? And how will the polycrisis shape global dynamics and the future of the European continent? This podcast was recorded on 8 June 2023. Bookshelf : • Phenomenal World, a blog by Kate Mackenzie and Tim Sahay https://www.phenomenalworld.org/series/the-polycrisis/ • Leçons d'un siècle de vie, Edgar Morin

Earlier this month, Israel marked its 75th birthday amid one of the biggest crises of democracy the country has ever experienced. Since returning to power in December last year, prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has introduced a set of controversial judicial reforms, resulting in mass protests on the streets of Tel Aviv and beyond.This week, Mark Leonard welcomes member of the Knesset and leader of the Israeli Labor Party, Merav Michaeli, to discuss what is at stake with these reforms and how they could affect the country's global standing. What is behind the waning influence of the left in Israel over the past 20 years? What can be done to reinvigorate the peace process with the Palestinians? And what might the next 75 years have in store for the Israel? This podcast was recorded on 23 May 2023. Bookshelf: The Age of Innocence by Edith Wharton

The crisis in Sudan is now in its sixth week, with no end in sight. Neither the Sudanese Armed Forces nor the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces have been able to gain decisive victories in the capital, Khartoum. On 22 May, the two sides signed a seven-day ceasefire, sponsored by the United States and Saudi Arabia. So, what are the current scenarios for negotiation, and what role should the West play in this process? This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Theodore Murphy, Julien Barnes-Dacey, and Marie Dumoulin, the heads of ECFR's Africa, Middle East and North Africa, and Wider Europe programmes. They discuss why stability in Sudan is critical to the Middle East and North Africa, and what is at stake for other politically unsteady countries, such as South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Chad. Is there a risk of regional spillover, and where are the Sudanese refugees going? This podcast was recorded on 22 May 2023. Bookshelf: Putin's Wars: From Chechnya to Ukraine by Mark Galeotti A Stranger in your own City: Travels in the Middle East's Long War by Ghaid Abdul-Ahad The Nonaligned World by Foreign Affairs A conversation with Henry Kissinger in The Economist

Even if China's priorities might be different from those of the West, it embraces many of the ontological assumptions of the current world order. In her recent book “Before the West: The Rise and Fall of Eastern World Order”, Ayse Zarakol conceptualises world order as a non-Western concept and puts forward an alternative model of sovereignty. In this week's episode of the World in 30 Minutes, Mark Leonard is joined by Ayse Zarakol, author and professor of international relations at the University of Cambridge. They talk about how to define world order, what sort of order we are in today, and what factors eventually cause orders to decline. What could be done to strengthen our current world order? And can we even imagine what would replace it? This podcast was recorded on 16 May 2023. Bookshelf: Before the West: The Rise and Fall of Eastern World Order by Ayse Zarakol Sacred Kingship in World History: Between Immanence and Transcendence by A. Azfar Moin and Alan Strathern

A year ahead of the EU elections, commentators are already feverishly speculating about whether Ursula von der Leyen will stay on as president of the European Commission. Meanwhile, others lament the ongoing lethargy of the Franco-German motor. But focusing too much on these questions risks ignoring key players outside the traditional halls of European power, some of whom have been growing in influence. What can these countries and their domestic politics tell us about the future of the EU? In this episode – live from ECFR's staff retreat in Porto – Mark Leonard welcomes the heads of ECFR's national offices: Nacho Torreblanca, Arturo Varvelli, Vessela Tcherneva, and Piotr Buras. Has it become harder for the Polish government to attack the EU, given its pro-Ukraine policies? What is the status of coalition talks in Bulgaria? And how will Spain's EU presidency shape the political agenda from July to December? This podcast was recorded on 10 May 2023. Bookshelf: And then what?: Inside Stories of 21st Century Diplomacy by Catherine Ashton Turkey: The Insane and the Melancholy by Ece Temelkuran Putin's People: How the KGB took back Russia and then took on the West by Catherine Belton I am Giorgia Meloni: my rules, my ideas by Giorgia Meloni

In recent weeks, the conversation on military aid for Ukraine has shifted from battle tanks to fighter jets. Poland and Slovakia have already delivered Soviet-era MiG-29s, and Ukraine's leaders have repeately called for the West also to supply modern jets. As with tanks, a decision from the US to supply its own fighters to Kyiv could be highly influential for European governments. This week, Mark Leonard welcomes ECFR senior policy fellow, Gustav Gressel, whose recent commentary argues that Ukraine's allies should supply fighter jets to Ukraine as quickly as possible. But would they arrive in time for the anticipated Ukrainian counter-offensive? How would Putin respond? And what are the risks of escalation? This podcast was recorded on 3 May 2023. Bookshelf: Faustian Bargain. The Soviet-German Partnership and the Origins of the Second World War by Ian Ona Johnson The case for sending fighter jets to Ukraine by Gustav Gressel

Despite being a NATO member, Turkey has stayed neutral in the war in Ukraine and continues to block Sweden's accession to the alliance. Yet, Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is better known domestically for his economic mismanagement and shoddy response to the earthquake that killed 60,000 people in February than his government's increasingly aggressive international strategy. Presidential and parliamentary elections on 14 May could even raise the prospect of a Turkey without Erdogan. In this episode, Mark Leonard welcomes ECFR's research director Jeremy Shapiro and associate senior policy fellow Asli Aydintasbas who have just published a commentary on how the West should prepare for the Turkish elections. Can the opposition unity candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu pull off a victory? What would a post-Erdogan EU-Turkey relationship look like? And could Turkey's EU accession negotiations restart? This podcast was recorded on 27 April 2023. Bookshelf: The Keys to Democracy: Sortition as a New Model for Citizen Power by Maurice Pope Memoirs, 1925-1950 by George F. Kennan The Diplomat – A Netflix Series

Last week, France's president Emmanuel Macron threw the EU bubble into turmoil by suggesting that Europe should not become the United States' “vassal” over Taiwan. But is the controversy overshadowing the possibility that he could be right? This week, Mark Leonard welcomes two ECFR colleagues: director of the Wider Europe programme and former French diplomat, Marie Dumoulin, and head of the Paris office and expert in French and US foreign policy, Célia Belin. . What explains Macron's way of thinking and is there a domestic context to his comments? And what do the strong reactions say about how Europeans view strategic autonomy in the context of the war in Ukraine? This podcast was recorded on 17 April 2023. Bookshelf: The Cat and the General by Nino Haratischwili Living with our Dead by Delphine Horvilleur

Although European leaders have stepped up in many ways to support Ukraine, the war has also laid bare Europe's profound dependence on the United States. This reality was at the heart of French president Emmanuel Macron's recent call for more “strategic autonomy”, which stirred a new debate over the transatlantic power imbalance. It was also the topic of a new publication, “The Art of Vassalisation”, from ECFR's research director, Jeremy Shapiro, and senior policy fellow and head of the Berlin office, Jana Puglierin, who join week Mark Leonard for this week's episode. What factors influence “vassalisation”, and is it really more beneficial for the Americans? And how seriously are Europeans taking the risk of a Republican victory in 2024? This podcast was recorded on 3 April 2023. Please note that we adapted the introduction to Macron's interview on 9 April, but some views of our experts might be outdated. An in-depth analysis of the current events will soon follow in an extra episode. Bookshelf: - Revanche: Wie Putin das bedrohlichste Regime der Welt geschaffen hat by Michael Thumann - Smart Brevity: The Power of Saying More with Less by Jim VandeHei, Mike Allen & Roy Schwartz - Slow Horses with Jack Lowden, Kristin Scott Thomas & Gary Oldman

From the rise of China and Russia's invasion of Ukraine to more independent middle and regional powers – our global political order is rapidly changing. But what is Hungary's position in this increasingly multipolar world? In this week's episode, Mark Leonard is joined by Balazs Orban, the political director of Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban. (They are not related.) Balazs is also the chair of the board at the Mathias Corvinus Collegium and in 2021 wrote a book called “The Hungarian Way of Strategy”, in which he describes the country's “strategy of connectivity”. How does the European Union fit into this vision? And what kind of relationship does Hungary expect to have with Russia when the war eventuallycomes to an end? This podcast was recorded on 20 March 2023. Bookshelf: The Hungarian Way of Strategy by Balázs Orbán Leadership: Six Studies in World Strategy by Henry Kissinger Nationale Interessen: Orientierung für deutsche und europäische Politik in Zeiten globaler Umbrüche by Klaus von Dohnanyi

Last week, the Chinese leader Xi Jinping completed a three-day visit to Moscow, his first since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Before the war, Xi and Vladimir Putin had famously announced a “friendship without limits”. But it is unclear whether that relationship is purely transactional, a marriage of convenience, or based on more fundamental, ideological factors. In this week's episode, Mark Leonard is joined by the director of ECFR's Asia programme, Janka Oertel, and ECFR policy fellow, Alicja Bachulska, to discuss China-Russia relations. How best to explain the “friendship without limits”? What are the key takeaways from Xi's Russia trip? And how has Xi's embrace of Putin been perceived in central and eastern Europe? This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2023. Bookshelf: Our Share of Night: a novel by Mariana Enriquez Economists at War: how a handful of Economists helped win and lose the World Wars by Allan Bollard

Last week, China helped broker an agreement between long-feuding Saudi Arabia and Iran to begin the process of normalising their relations. Both the deal and China's role surprised many observers – especially in the West. So, how significant is the agreement, and what consequences will it have for the Middle East? To address this and other questions, Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of ECFR's Middle East and North Africa programme; Cinzia Bianco, ECFR visiting fellow and Gulf expert; and Andrew Small, China expert and senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund. Does this deal mean Beijing could play a constructive role in ending the war in Ukraine? Or should the United States be alarmed that China is encroaching on its traditional sphere of influence? This podcast was recorded on 22 March 2023. Bookshelf: Aftermath: Life in the Fallout of the Third Reich, 1945-1955 by Harald Jähner Berlin: The Story of a City by Barney White-Spunner Economists at War: How a Handful of Economists Helped Win and Lose the World Wars by Allan Bollard

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Christoph Heusgen, longstanding foreign policy chief during the Merkel years and now chair of the Munich Security Conference. They discuss Western and non-Western reactions to the war in Ukraine – and, in particular, the role of Germany. Should Berlin have taken a harder line against Russia after 2014? How can Scholz realise his vision for the Zeitenwende? And what is stopping Germany from engaging more in developing countries? This podcast was recorded on 13 March 2023. Bookshelf: The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity Causes Conflict by Mark Leonard Führung und Verantwortung: Angela Merkels Außenpolitik und Deutschlands künftige Rolle in der Welt by Christoph Heusgen

A year into the war in Ukraine, economic sanctions remain the West's strongest instrument against Russia. But the Russian economy has proven surprisingly resilient: Russia still sells oil to Turkey and China, and – according to a recent investigation by The Economist and SourceMaterial – the Kremlin's sanctions-dodging is becoming increasingly advanced. This week, Mark Leonard is joined by James O'Brien, head of the office of sanctions coordination at the US State Department, to discuss the efficacy of economic sanctions. What ripple effects have sanctions had for Western and third countries? Is the United States currently mulling sanctions against China? And what alternatives are there, if sanctions no longer work as intended? This podcast was recorded on 6 March 2023. Bookshelf - Backfire by Agathe Demarais - Russia's sanctions-dodging is getting ever more sophisticated by The Economist and SourceMaterial - Talking to Terrorists by Jonathan Powell - We Don't Know Ourselves by Fintan O'Toole - The Baseball 100 by Joe Posnanski Picture (c) picture alliance / Consolidated News Photos | Rod Lamkey - CNP

Some analysts argue that capitalism would work better without democracy, while others believe that democracy would be better off without capitalism – so what's the solution? In his new book “The crisis of democratic capitalism”, Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator at the Financial Times, sets out how they actually need one another if either is to thrive. In this week's episode, host Mark Leonard welcomes Wolf to discuss what democratic capitalism is all about and how it is threatened by two distinct authoritarian versions of capitalism. What does all this mean for the development of democracy and capitalism in developing and emerging economies? And what are the chances that democratic capitalism will remain the model to which countries around the world aspire? This podcast was recorded on 10 February 2023. Bookshelf - The crisis of democratic capitalism by Martin Wolf - Slouching towards utopia by J. Bradford DeLong

A major new public opinion poll from ECFR indicates that, a year into Russia's war on Ukraine, the Western alliance is consolidating – but that there are divisions between the West and other global powers. These divergences range from their views of the conflict to their interpretations of democracy and their ambitions on the world stage. In this week's episode, the authors of the research – Mark Leonard, Timothy Garton Ash, and Ivan Krastev – discuss its main findings and the future of the world order. Does Europe have a strong role to play in a multipolar world, or will it forever live in the United States' shadow? How can the West use the desire in emerging powers to act on their own terms to its advantage? And what principles should drive Europe's engagement with those countries? This podcast was recorded on 18 February 2023. Further reading - United West, divided from the rest: Global public opinion one year into Russia's war on Ukraine by Timothy Garton Ash, Ivan Krastev & Mark Leonard https://ecfr.eu/publication/united-west-divided-from-the-rest-global-public-opinion-one-year-into-russias-war-on-ukraine/ Bookshelf - Homelands: A Personal History of Europe by Timothy Garton Ash - The Frontline by Serhii Plokhy - The Shape of the Ruins by Juan Gabriel Vásquez

Russia's invasion of Ukraine upended many Western leaders' previous assumptions about security policy, warfare, and the international order. Mark Leonard and his ECFR colleagues Camille Grand, Jana Puglierin, and Ulrike Franke got together at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) last weekend to discuss the dramatic changes – such as Germany's Zeitenwende – that have taken place as a result of these revisions. They analyse MSC speeches from Volodymir Zelensky, Olaf Scholz, and Emmanuel Macron, as well as the announcement of a plan for peace talks by China's top diplomat Wang Yi. What is on the transatlantic to-do list? And how can the West forge more and better alliances with countries in the global south? This podcast was recorded on 17 February 2023. Further reading: - The Munich Security Report 2023 Bookshelf: - Au café de la ville perdue [FR] by Anaïs Llobet - Les Loups [FR] by Benoît Vitkine

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Michael Thumann, foreign affairs correspondent for the German weekly newspaper Die ZEIT, longtime expert on Russia, and one of the only German correspondents still reporting from Moscow. Following the publication of Thumann's new book, “Revanche. Wie Putin das bedrohlichste Regime der Welt geschaffen hat” (“Revenge: How Putin created the most threatening regime in the world”, currently only available in German), he and Leonard discuss the roots of the Russian regime's imperialistic behaviour. What is the relevance of Vladimir Putin's interpretation of Russian history? Could Russia become a ‘normal country' in the future? And how have Germans' views of Russia changed since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine? This podcast was recorded on 1 February 2023. Further reading: - Revanche by Michael Thumann [available only in GER]: https://buff.ly/3lppnPn - The old is dying and the new cannot be born: A power audit of EU-Russia relations by Kadri Liik: https://t.co/W42ylXEfDp Bookshelf: - Geschichten aus der Heimat by Dmitry Glukhovsky [available only in GER] - Day of the Oprichnik by Vladimir Sorokin - The Frontline Essays on Ukraine's Past and Present by Serhii Plokhy

Over the last decades, sanctions have become the West's diplomatic tool par excellence. Faced with wars, humanitarian crises, and human rights violations, the West's response has often been to impose sanctions to avoid resorting to military force. This week, Mark Leonard invited Agathe Demarais, global forecasting director of the Economist Intelligence Unit and author of “Backfire - How Sanctions Reshape the World Against US Interests”, to talk about how sanctions work and how they can be truly effective. Have the sanctions on Russia been successful? Is there a danger of the West becoming over-reliant on them? And will they eventually be replaced by other economic weapons? This podcast was recorded on 24 January 2023. Further reading -ECFR's work on geo-economics: https://ecfr.eu/category/europeanpower/economic-sovereignty/ - Backfire: How Sanctions Reshape the World Against U.S. Interests by Agathe Demarais - The global race for semiconductor hegemony with Janka Oertel, Chris Miller and Andrew Small Bookshelf - What You Have Heard Is True: A Memoir of Witness and Resistance by Carolyn Forché - Kochland by Christopher Leonard - Say Nothing by Patrick Radden Keefe Picture © Agathe Demarais