Podcasts about cam harvey

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG,. __ So many market participants now regard an inverted yield curve as a harbinger of a recession, due to the indicator's perfect track record of preceding an economic slowdown. Today, Jack interviews the founder of this economic indicator, Campbell R. Harvey. Harvey shares how he discovered this signal in the bond market in the 1980s, and how it has an 8 out 8 track record in preceding recessions (with zero false signal). An inverted yield curve is when short-term interest rates exceed long-term interest rates. Harvey's specific signal on which he wrote his dissertation in 1986 (his thesis advisor was Eugene Fama, Nobel Prize-winning economist) was the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 3-month Treasury yield. It is this indicator which has an 8/8 perfect track record, not the 2s10s (10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year Treasury yield), which as Harvey notes gave a false signal in 1998. Harvey argues that since his 10-year / 3-month signal inverted in the fall of 2022, the first and second quarter of 2024 is when a potential economic slowdown would occur (the average lag between the inversion of the 10-year / 3-month spread is 12 months, but the longest lag is 22 months). However, Harvey notes that there are several positive forces supporting the U.S. economy, such as fiscal stimulus and a strong labor market, as seen by job vacancies in excess of unemployment. While Harvey hopes that these forces can induce a “soft landing,” it is his base case that the 10-year / 3-month inversion will go 9 for 9 in forecasting an economic slowdown. Harvey is Professor of Finance at Duke University's Fuqua School of Business, Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Director of Research and Partner at Research Affiliates, and author of the book “DeFi and the Future of Finance.” Filmed on January 16, 2024. __ Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. Visit VanEck.com or call 800-826-2333 to carefully read a prospectus before investing. The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) is distributed by VanEck Securities Corporation, a wholly-owned subsidiary of VanEck Associates Corporation __ Follow Cam Harvey on Twitter https://twitter.com/camharvey?lang=en Cam Harvey on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/camharvey/ Cam Harvey's website https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/ Cam Harvey's Original 1986 Dissertation on Inverted Yield Curve: https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/Research/Thesis/Thesis.pdf Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks' Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (12:07) Early 2023 Harvey Raised Possibility That "This Might Be A False Signal" (18:39) VanEck Ad (19:18) Inverted Curves Go From Predicting Recessions To... Causing Them? (21:04) The Theoretical Support For Why Inverted Yield Curves Precede Recessions (25:18) The Impact Of Expectations of Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy On The Yield Curve (30:52) Factors That Support A Soft Landing: Tight Labor Market and Strong Housing Market (36:44) What About The Chance That There Was Already A Recession In 2022? (42:41) Worries About The Banking System And "A Future Credit Squeeze" (46:05) Fed Should Cut Rates Right Now, Since Shelter Inflation Data Is Extremely Lagging (55:04) Closing Thoughts On Yield Curve __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice.

Ilana Weinstein, IDW Group CEO and founder, joins to discuss hedge funds and investing. Sonali Basak joins. Cam Harvey, Professor at Duke Business School, joins to give his economic outlook and potential for a hard landing in the US. Anton Posner, CEO at Mercury Resources, joins to discuss supply chain risks amid uncertainty in the Middle East. Jake Saper, General Partner at Emergence Capital, joins to discuss the outlook for artificial intelligence in 2024. Hosted by Paul Sweeney, Kailey Leinz, and Caroline Hyde.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Cam Harvey, Professor at Duke University Faqua School of Business, joins to discuss the FOMC meeting, the Treasury auction, and outlook for a hard landing. Jen Rie, Senior Antitrust Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, and George Ferguson, Senior Defense/Aerospace Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, discuss the Spirit-JetBlue trial, what it means for the industry, and airline earnings and industry outlook. Tim Duy, Chief US Economist at SGH Macro Advisors, joins to discuss the Fed and outlook for rates in 2024. Chris Whalen, founder at Whalen Global Advisors, joins to discuss bank liquidity, the Fed, and outlook for a hard landing. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, observe the destruction in long term treasury bonds due to the reflation of the yield curve. How does the market do with higher rates? What does a flattening yield curve mean for the economy? Bond and Stock correlations mean bonds not protecting portfolios? The Hussman 12-year forward return gauge. Strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) now only has 17 days of supply left. And by the way, there is still a lot of good news like improving mortality rates around the world. That and more including some recommendations.   How much long-term US Treasury Bonds have dropped from the high The yield curve is getting flatter meaning long rates are rising Cam Harvey's 10/3 yield curve inversion is on the path the un-inverting? How the yield curve un-inverts before recessions Examining a 100-year Austrian bond and how it once was up 250% and now down 40% Stock and bond correlations going closer to 100% Starting interest rates vs. the stock market since 1926 Starting inflation rates vs. the stock market since 1926 Comparing the yield curve today vs. early September John Hussman estimated 12-year annual nominal total returns SPR Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the days left of inventory (it is getting lower) Infant mortality rates continue falling and are at lowest levels back to 400 BC   Mentioned in this Episode:   Government Shutdowns & Markets | Short ITM Puts Alternative to Covered Calls | Why Hedging Works https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/government-shutdowns-markets-short-itm-puts-alternative/id1432836154?i=1000629813419   John Hussman 12-year forward nominal return estimates chart https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc230724/     Cheap vs Expensive Options | Warren Buffett on Options | Fed Powell Presser https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cheap-vs-expensive-options-warren-buffett-on-options/id1432836154?i=1000629058900   0DTE Options Analysis| Inflation Coming Back? | Strong US Dollar Impact https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/0dte-options-analysis-inflation-coming-back-strong/id1432836154?i=1000628157831   Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger Berkshire Hathaway meeting discuss using and pricing options https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMkpou-YBGw   Implied Volatility Deep Dive | Real Interest Rate Yields | The Big Short | Tesla vs Nvidia https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/implied-volatility-deep-dive-real-interest-rate-yields/id1432836154?i=1000627400400   GameStop Short Squeeze by the Reddit Wall Street Bets Traders Explained https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/broken-pie-chart/id1432836154?i=1000507187446 The Big Short Movie and Credit Default Swaps Explained https://open.spotify.com/episode/6FG0xHkxfhSXEtbJbFbDF6 Margin Call Movie and Understanding Value at Risk https://open.spotify.com/episode/2XJ58KAoQKw2sdC48KHyPp Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   www.zegafinancial.com

Monica Raymunt, Autos Industry Disruption reporter with Bloomberg News, joins us to talk earnings from Volkswagen and outlook for other Euro automakers. She can also discuss the EV race and the cars aboard a burning ship off the Dutch coast. Aneeka Gupta, Director of Macroeconomic Research at WisdomTree, joins to discuss the ECB decision and recent inflation moves across Europe, as well as the outlook for European economies. Kailey Leinz and Dani Burger interview SEC Chair Gary Gensler. Rania Sedhom, Managing Partner at Sedhom Law Group, joins to discuss the WGA strike, legal analysis, and how it all ties in to AI and work. Cam Harvey, Finance Professor at Duke University at co-author of DeFi & the Future of Finance,” joins the show to discuss the Fed and terminating rate hikes, yield curve inversions, and why he believes any recession will be “100% the Fed's fault.” Meta CFO Susan Li joins Bloomberg Technology for a post-earnings discussion with Ed Ludlow and Caroline Hyde. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Audrey Childe-Freeman, Chief G10 FX Strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to discuss the FX and dollar implications of a debt ceiling default, and also discusses her note on the strength of the Swiss Franc. Duane Wright, Senior Government Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, also discusses the debt ceiling. Diana Rosero-Pena, Equity Research Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, and Brendan Case, Bloomberg News retail reporter, join to discuss the slew of recent retail news and Petco earnings today. Linda Anegawa, Chief of Medicine at Noom, joins the program to discuss the company's new health developments. Sam Fazeli, Senior Pharma Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins the discussion to offer some questions and analysis. Morgan Paxhia, co-founder of Poseidon Investment Management, joins the program in studio to talk about investing and the cannabis market. Geetha Ranganathan, Analyst of US Media with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins the program to discuss Netflix password sharing and outlook for the company's financials. Cam Harvey, Finance Professor at Duke University at co-author of DeFi & the Future of Finance,” joins the show to discuss the yield curve and the outlook for a hard landing and a recession. Hosted by Kriti Gupta and Simone Foxman.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle and Jake Taylor. See our latest episodes at https://acquirersmultiple.com/  Campbell R. Harvey is Professor of Finance at the Fuqua School of Business, Duke University and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts Twitter: @camharvey About Jake: Journalytic Jake is a partner at Farnam Street: http://farnam-street.com/vah Jake's podcast: https://twitter.com/5_GQs Jake's Twitter: https://twitter.com/farnamjake1 Jake's book: The Rebel Allocator https://amzn.to/2sgip3l About Bill: Bill runs Sullimar Capital Group, a family investment firm. Bill's website: https://sullimarcapital.group/ Bill's Twitter: @BillBrewsterSCG ABOUT THE PODCAST Hi, I'm Tobias Carlisle. I launched The Acquirers Podcast to discuss the process of finding undervalued stocks, deep value investing, hedge funds, activism, buyouts, and special situations. We uncover the tactics and strategies for finding good investments, managing risk, dealing with bad luck, and maximizing success. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://acquirersmultiple.com/podcast/ SEE OUR FREE DEEP VALUE STOCK SCREENER https://acquirersmultiple.com/screener/ FOLLOW TOBIAS Website: https://acquirersmultiple.com/ Firm: https://acquirersfunds.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Greenbackd LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tobycarlisle Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/tobiascarlisle Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tobias_carlisle ABOUT TOBIAS CARLISLE Tobias Carlisle is the founder of The Acquirer's Multiple®, and Acquirers Funds®. He is best known as the author of the #1 new release in Amazon's Business and Finance The Acquirer's Multiple: How the Billionaire Contrarians of Deep Value Beat the Market, the Amazon best-sellers Deep Value: Why Activists Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (2014) (https://amzn.to/2VwvAGF), Quantitative Value: A Practitioner's Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors (2012) (https://amzn.to/2SDDxrN), and Concentrated Investing: Strategies of the World's Greatest Concentrated Value Investors (2016) (https://amzn.to/2SEEjVn). He has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public company corporate governance, and corporate law. Prior to founding the forerunner to Acquirers Funds in 2010, Tobias was an analyst at an activist hedge fund, general counsel of a company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange, and a corporate advisory lawyer. As a lawyer specializing in mergers and acquisitions he has advised on transactions across a variety of industries in the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Australia, Singapore, Bermuda, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand, and Guam.

Derek Moore and ZEGA CEO Jay Pestrichelli are back again to discuss Cam Harvey's 10/3 Yield Curve Inversion and its track record. What it has meant and can mean going forward. Looking at the Real Retail Sales importance for predicting recessions. What various Fed members and Jamie Dimon say about where interest rates are going. Plus, what is going on with wages and how real wage growth may or may not give the Fed cover to raise more. Then, they discuss banks going to the discount window and the new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) to borrow money. Finally, what do credit card interest rates and increased usage tell us about the health of the consumer, and why is no one talking about the upcoming debt ceiling deadline?   What is the 10-year 3-month yield curve inversion? Cam Harvey and the inception of the 10/3 yield curve as a predictor How often has the 10/3 yield curve inversion predicted recessions? Does the steepness of the yield curve say anything about the depth of recessions? Debating whether the 10/3 inversion in 2019 predicted the 2020 recession? Average time from yield curve inversion to the declaration of recessions Cam Harvey interview saying this time might be different. How real retail sales peaked back in March of 2021 Nominal retail sales disappointed while year over year hit lowest level in a while. What is the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP)? Banks accessing the Fed's discount window plus the BTFP Consumer credit usage makes a new high while credit card interest rates reach new high Jamie Dimon comments on higher rates for longer and implications Real wage growth has been negative for the last 2 years What is the debt ceiling and what does it mean for the US Treasury US Treasury keeps a “checking” account at the Fed   Mentioned in this Episode:     Atlantic article from 2011 explaining potential option to get around debt ceiling by US Treasury getting overdraft protection from the Fed https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/07/the-us-government-cannot-ever-run-out-of-money/242622/   Can the Fed Fail? Q1 Winners Surprise the Crowd podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/can-the-fed-fail-q1-winners-surprise-the-crowd/id1432836154?i=1000608060319   One Thing No One Ever Talks About within the S&P 500 Index | FANG Stocks 1 Rest of Market 0  https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/one-thing-no-one-ever-talks-about-within-the-s-p-500/id1432836154?i=1000607742682   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com

Alison Williams, Senior Global Banks & Asset Managers Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, and Ira Jersey, Chief US Interest Rates Strategist with BI, join for a roundtable on Fed day to discuss interest rates and bank instability in the US. Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist of Quill Intelligence, joins the program to discuss Jay Powell and the Fed's rate hike path. Joanna Gallegos, co-founder of BondBloxx, talks about ETF investment strategies and her ETF management amid recent turmoil. Bloomberg cross asset reporter Katie Greifeld also joins. Mike McGlone, Senior Macro Strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to discuss the latest moves in Bitcoin and crypto amid bank instability, discusses whether the gains will last, and gives his outlook for oil and commodities. Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, joins the show to discuss how markets and traders are pricing in a Fed rate hike and bank turmoil. Cam Harvey, Finance Professor at Duke University at co-author of DeFi & the Future of Finance,” joins the show to discuss the yield curve and outlook for a recession amid financial instability. Paul Sweeney, Kriti Gupta, and Jess Menton host.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Duke finance professor Cam Harvey, the father of the yield curve as a prescient predictor of future recession, weighs in on what the curve is saying about recession in the coming year.  You will be surprised.  Mark and Cris were.For more on Cam Harvey, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight

Cam Harvey, Finance Professor at Duke University at co-author of DeFi & the Future of Finance,” joins the show to discuss why his legendary yield curve model may be flashing a false signal. T Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Autos Analyst Kevin Tynan joins the program to discuss Carvana's stock volatility and everything he reported on from CES. Alison Williams, Senior Global Banks and Asset Managers Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to break down bank earnings. Francis Oh, CEO of Qraft Technologies, and Sean O'Hara, president of Pacer ETFs, join for an in-studio roundtable to discuss value investing and why it could succeed in a potential down market in 2023. David Schassler, Portfolio Manager and Head of Quantitative Investment Solutions at VanEck, discusses inflation and his Inflation Allocation ETF (RAAX). He can also discuss broad markets, real assets, asset allocation, rates, and yields. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Will crypto have a place in a multi-asset trend-following strategy? What's the academic foundation for why trend-following works when so many other strategies have been proven wrong? And what can investors do to protect their portfolios from the ‘Achilles Heel' of trend? Campbell Harvey, Professor of Finance at Duke University, joins the podcast to discuss his ground-breaking research into trend-following and his latest books including Strategic Risk Management and DeFi and the Future of Finance. 

"When the market turns and goes negative, strategies like Trend Following tend to do really well. They provide that hedge. So it's completely inappropriate to compare Trend Following to a long equity portfolio, because Trend Following has different properties - it has hedging properties." - Cam HarveyHow should you protect your portfolio against large losses, but without giving up its upside potential? To answer this question, and many more, I invited back professor of finance at Duke University, Campbell Harvey to the show. I also thought it would be fitting if Rob Carver, could also join us, considering Rob and Cam used to work together at Man AHL. Enjoy the show as we discuss how to navigate a crisis in the markets, and what to expect in terms of the global outlook for investing. Thank you for listening and please welcome to the show, our guest, Campbell Harvey. In This Episode, You'll Learn: How to manage a portfolio through a crisis The motivation behind writing his new book Various methods of portfolio protection Diversification within Trend Following systems Volatility targeting and why it can be a powerful tool “When you have a portfolio of different assets, the noise cancels out, you reduce the volatility, and that's good for you.” - Cam HarveyThe journey of volatility going from a measure to an input Drawdowns as an important metric to monitor Timing portfolio rebalances effectively The 60 / 40 portfolio, diversification, and inflation Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Cam on https://twitter.com/camharvey (Twitter) and Rob on Twitter. IT's TRUE

Richard Brennan returns today to discuss the misconception of volatility as risk, thoughts on the various measures of risk, drawdowns as an opportunity ‘buy the dip' in the Trend Following strategies, how Richard thinks about risk, the relationship between volatility and risk, and the differences between convergent and divergent traders. In this episode, we discuss: Why volatility might not always mean that a model is risky The best way to measure true risk How to 'buy the dip' What Richard thinks about risk The relationship between volatility and risk Convergent versus divergent trading Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). Follow Richard on https://twitter.com/@RichB118 (Twitter). IT's TRUE

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, discusses the market drop on Black Friday amid identification of a new coronavirus variant. Jim Sullivan, Managing Director and REIT Analyst for BTIG, discusses how the new COVID variant could impact real estate. Dr. April Kapu, President of the American Association of Nurse Practitioners (AANP), discusses COVID spikes in the US and the latest COVID-19 variant alarming health professionals. Cam Harvey, Professor of Finance at Duke University, talks about the new COVID-19 variant's impact on markets as well as his new book, “DeFi and the Future of Finance.” Paige Vanfossen, Vice President of eCommerce Operations, DHL Supply Chain, discusses how the new coronavirus variant could affect supply chain bottlenecks and the economy. David Dietze, Managing Principal and Senior Portfolio Strategist at Gladstone Bank, breaks down the markets after close on a tough Black Friday. Hosted by Paul Sweeney, Katie Greifeld, and Guy Johnson. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

El Salvador has officially made Bitcoin legal tender. Some in traditional finance are calling it an experiment doomed to fail... While others are calling it one of the biggest stories in the history of cryptocurrencies... One thing is for sure... This decision will likely have far-reaching effects around the world for years... Will other countries soon follow suit? Could this be the big adoption catalyst that sends Bitcoin soaring up towards $100K? Or will this experiment end disastrously and serve as a warning for other small nations thinking of doing the same thing? To help us make sense of this incredible new development, Dan invited crypto expert, Cam Harvey, onto the show... Cam is the professor of Finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University. And he's also served as editor of the Journal of Finance from 2006-2012... as well as the President of the American Finance Association in 2016. When it comes to cryptocurrencies, Cam is way ahead of the curve... When Bitcoin was trading between $200 - $400 per coin, Cam was giving lectures to his students about Bitcoin during his finance classes... During their conversation, Cam and Dan discuss at length what El Salvador's recent move could mean for the US Dollar, traditional financial institutions, and other nations that might be thinking of doing the same thing... If you've thought about investing in cryptos and don't know where to get started, Cam says we're less than 1% into this disruption, so now is the perfect time... In fact, Cam walks listeners through the first 2 steps you need to take to get started in the crypto space the right way... He says every listener should consider entering the crypto space... because in his words, "You can either join this revolution, or get swept away by it..." Listen to Dan's conversation with Cam and more on this week's episode.

El Salvador has officially made Bitcoin legal tender. Some in traditional finance are calling it an experiment doomed to fail... While others are calling it one of the biggest stories in the history of cryptocurrencies... One thing is for sure... This decision will likely have far-reaching effects around the world for years... Will other countries soon follow suit? Could this be the big adoption catalyst that sends Bitcoin soaring up towards $100K? Or will this experiment end disastrously and serve as a warning for other small nations thinking of doing the same thing? To help us make sense of this incredible new development, Dan invited crypto expert, Cam Harvey, onto the show... Cam is the professor of Finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University. And he's also served as editor of the Journal of Finance from 2006-2012... as well as the President of the American Finance Association in 2016. When it comes to cryptocurrencies, Cam is way ahead of the curve... When Bitcoin was trading between $200 - $400 per coin, Cam was giving lectures to his students about Bitcoin during his finance classes... During their conversation, Cam and Dan discuss at length what El Salvador's recent move could mean for the US Dollar, traditional financial institutions, and other nations that might be thinking of doing the same thing... If you've thought about investing in cryptos and don't know where to get started, Cam says we're less than 1% into this disruption, so now is the perfect time... In fact, Cam walks listeners through the first 2 steps you need to take to get started in the crypto space the right way... He says every listener should consider entering the crypto space... because in his words, "You can either join this revolution, or get swept away by it..." Listen to Dan's conversation with Cam and more on this week's episode.

Cam Harvey, PhD, professor of finance, Duke University, shares how his June 2019 prediction of a recession in 2020 is being further fueled by COVID-19, compares the pandemic to the likes of the Spanish Flu and SARS in terms of "systemic risk," breaks down the finances of the recently enacted CARES Act, floats the idea of a federal strategic medical equipment reserve, and more.

Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, Bill Brewster and Jake Taylor. See our latest episodes at https://greenbackd.com/ Cam Harvey's Yield Curve Inversion: https://www.fuqua.duke.edu/duke-fuqua-insights/harvey-yield-curve-2019 NY Fed Recession Model: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq.html#/interactive CAPE: https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe About Bill: Bill runs Sullimar Capital Group, a family investment firm. Bill's website: https://sullimarcapital.group/ Bill's Twitter: @BillBrewsterSCG Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment. About Jake: Jake is a partner at Farnam Street. Jake's website: http://www.farnam-street.com/ Jake's podcast: https://twitter.com/5_GQs Jake's Twitter: https://twitter.com/farnamjake1 Jake's book: The Rebel Allocator https://amzn.to/2sgip3l ABOUT THE PODCAST Hi, I'm Tobias Carlisle. I launched The Acquirers Podcast to discuss the process of finding undervalued stocks, deep value investing, hedge funds, activism, buyouts, and special situations. We uncover the tactics and strategies for finding good investments, managing risk, dealing with bad luck, and maximizing success. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://acquirersmultiple.com/podcast/ SEE OUR FREE DEEP VALUE STOCK SCREENER https://acquirersmultiple.com/screener/ FOLLOW TOBIAS Website: https://acquirersmultiple.com/ Firm: https://acquirersfunds.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Greenbackd LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tobycarlisle Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/tobiascarlisle Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tobias_carlisle ABOUT TOBIAS CARLISLE Tobias Carlisle is the founder of The Acquirer’s Multiple®, and Acquirers Funds®. He is best known as the author of the #1 new release in Amazon’s Business and Finance The Acquirer’s Multiple: How the Billionaire Contrarians of Deep Value Beat the Market, the Amazon best-sellers Deep Value: Why Activists Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (2014) (https://amzn.to/2VwvAGF), Quantitative Value: A Practitioner’s Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors (2012) (https://amzn.to/2SDDxrN), and Concentrated Investing: Strategies of the World’s Greatest Concentrated Value Investors (2016) (https://amzn.to/2SEEjVn). He has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public company corporate governance, and corporate law. Prior to founding the forerunner to Acquirers Funds in 2010, Tobias was an analyst at an activist hedge fund, general counsel of a company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange, and a corporate advisory lawyer. As a lawyer specializing in mergers and acquisitions he has advised on transactions across a variety of industries in the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Australia, Singapore, Bermuda, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand, and Guam.

Episode 195 is a replay of The Meb Faber Show’s top podcasts of 2019. Guests include Bill Smead, Cam Harvey, and Raoul Pal Hear Bill Smead discuss his firm’s value investing process, his view of the investing landscape, and his thoughts about millennials being in position to drive the economy in the future. Next, dig into Cam Harvey’s 1986 dissertation, his research on inverted yield curves and what that means for economic growth and various asset classes, and some thoughts on cryptocurrency and blockchain technology. Finally, listen to Raoul Pal and his take on global growth, where he thinks investment opportunity lies, his discussion of “The Doom Loop,” and risks to the global economy. All this and more in our replay of the top podcasts of 2019.

In episode 172, we welcome our guest, professor Cam Harvey. Meb and professor Harvey begin the conversation with professor Harvey’s 1986 dissertation on the yield curve, and his finding that when the yield curve inverts, it precedes a recession. His indicator has yet to provide a false signal. He goes on to explain the model, what it really tells us, and the implications as we move late into the summer of 2019. Professor Harvey then gets into what an inverted yield curve means for growth, and a study he did that describes the performance of various asset classes before and after yield curve inversions. He follows up with some background on the Duke CFO survey, and the predictive power it has in foreshadowing recession. As of a recent observation, 85% of respondents believe a recession will begin in 2020 or 2021. The conversation shifts, and professor Harvey gets into some thoughts on cryptocurrency, and the research that went into the creation of his course on Blockchain. Next, professor Harvey explains blunders in factor investing, from data mining, to investors not taking correlation of factors into consideration. As the conversation winds down, professor Harvey discusses what he’s thinking about in his research these days, and disruptions he sees coming in finance. All this and more in episode 172, including professor Harvey’s most memorable investment.

This week Ryan and Jack discuss two editorials on machine learning and its impact and use within Research. The first paper is an Editorial by Rob Arnott, Cam Harvey, and Harry Markowitz discussing, in their opinion, proper protocols for research (back-testing) in the era of machine learning. The Second paper, summarized by Elisabetta, is by Joseph Simonian, Marcos Lopez de Prado, and Frank Fabozzi. In their paper, they discuss, at a high-level, how data science and machine learning can help research. Paper Links: A Backtesting Protocol in the Era of Machine Learning https://alphaarchitect.com/2018/12/17/protocol-to-prevent-quants-gone-wild/ Order from Chaos: Data Science is Revolutionizing Investment Practice https://alphaarchitect.com/2018/12/18/data-science-is-revolutionizing-investment-practice/

This week Ryan and Jack discuss two editorials on machine learning and its impact and use within Research. The first paper is an Editorial by Rob Arnott, Cam Harvey, and Harry Markowitz discussing, in their opinion, proper protocols for research (back-testing) in the era of machine learning. The Second paper, summarized by Elisabetta, is by Joseph Simonian, Marcos Lopez de Prado, and Frank Fabozzi. In their paper, they discuss, at a high-level, how data science and machine learning can help research. Paper Links: A Backtesting Protocol in the Era of Machine Learning https://alphaarchitect.com/2018/12/17/protocol-to-prevent-quants-gone-wild/ Order from Chaos: Data Science is Revolutionizing Investment Practice https://alphaarchitect.com/2018/12/18/data-science-is-revolutionizing-investment-practice/

Cam Harvey, senior advisor to Research Affiliates and Duke University professor, said that the inverted yield curve model that he discovered -- and which has correctly called major recessions dating back through history -- is poised to trigger at the end of June, a sign that recession is about 12 months off. Also on the show, Chuck takes a question about insurance, Jason Hargraves of InsuranceQuotes.com discusses the value and usefulness of credit-card travel protection, and Malcolm Polley of Stewart Capital Advisors talks stocks and 'business-perspective investing' in the Market Call.

In this podcast, MarketFox columnist Daniel Grioli speaks with Research Affiliates founder and chairman Rob Arnott about his research into factors and addresses the criticism that AQR founder Cliff Asness had on his factor timing paper. He makes the case you certainly can time factors and that to sell out of value now, while it is the only factor that is cheap, seems not the best thing to do. He also believes that the industry will undergo significant change, but that machine learning is largely useless for long horizon investing. The three papers discussed in the podcast are: * How Can 'Smart Beta' Go Horribly Wrong? * Timing 'Smart Beta' Strategies? Of Course! Buy Low, Sell High! * Is Your Alpha Big Enough to Cover its Taxes? 3:00 Considering Astrophysics 4:30 Was a quantitative approach unusual in the early days? 5:45 A lot of quant go wherever the numbers lead them 8:15 Shockingly often conventional wisdom turns out not to be true when you test it 11:55 Higher dividend is higher earnings growth 17:15 Buybacks are smoke and mirrors to disguise management remuneration 18:05 What risk premium is normal? 24:15 You will never buy a bargain if you never buy what is out of favour, what is unloved. 24:45 Get people of their fixation with past returns 26:43 The spread between growth and value is wider than historic average. This means either a new normal or that value is a bargain. 31:00 The small cap effect is driven by the 2 or 3 per cent superstar winners. 31:45 Discussing the war of words with Cliff Asness 34:00 People are pouring money into multi-factor strategies, because they are tired of waiting for value to work. 36:00 Low volatility is trading at a premium, whereas historically it has traded at a discount. And people think they have less risk…? 37:45 Four of the five factors are pushing you into an anti-value direction 39:55 When momentum is chasing these bubble stocks you are slightly more likely to have a crash in momentum 42:00 If you must invest in the US, have a defensive stance 48:00 Those who say that factor timing doesn’t work, just have not done their homework 50:00 The big failing of the quant communitie is that we view everything as a signal, instead of viewing it as an asset 56:30 Talking ETFs 58:45 My next paper with Cam Harvey and Harry Markowitz looks at how you can screw yourself up with quantitative methods 59:55 Any research is data mining, but not all data mining is research 1:01:15 The quant community is engaged in performance chasing without realising it, for the most part 1:01:30 Start with a principal, start with a hypothesis, then test the hypothesis. Don’t go back to the same data again and again and tweak the process. 1:02:30 Machine learning is going to be useless for long horizon investing 1:08:10 The Future of the Financial Industry and discussing zero fees

As soon as you give, you set a principal. You have planted a seed that will grow your harvest. This giving message by Cam Harvey is such a simple message about how God wants you to be blessed, and live abundantly.

Interview with Cam Harvey, President of Shane Global Village, on how to work with agents to increase international student enrollment.