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Join Abhishek Nagaraj and Arindam Goswami in this episode of All Things Policy, where we discuss innovation policy, private sector R&D and AI. In today's world of techno-nationalism, where technological supremacy is considered to be an indicator of a country's prowess, and in the ever-evolving landscape of technological advancement, innovation and private sector research and development have become the backbone of economic growth. And recent developments in AI have dramatically accelerated this innovation cycle. Join us as we discuss all this and much more in this fascinating podcast episode.Abhishek Nagaraj is an Associate Professor in the Management and Organizations (MORS) and the Entrepreneurship and Innovation group at Berkeley Haas. He is also a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). His research is in the area of innovation management and entrepreneurship. His research studies the power and limits of data-driven decision-making and AI on innovation and creativity in a variety of different contexts. The PGP is a comprehensive 48-week hybrid programme tailored for those aiming to delve deep into the theoretical and practical aspects of public policy. This multidisciplinary course offers a broad and in-depth range of modules, ensuring students get a well-rounded learning experience. The curriculum is delivered online, punctuated with in-person workshops across India.https://school.takshashila.org.in/pgpAll Things Policy is a daily podcast on public policy brought to you by the Takshashila Institution, Bengaluru.Find out more on our research and other work here: https://takshashila.org.in/...Check out our public policy courses here: https://school.takshashila.org.in
Alberto Galasso is a Professor of Strategic Management at the University of Toronto, where he holds the Anthony S. Fell Chair in New Technologies and Commercialization. He is Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). For more of the Shaye Ganam Show, subscribe to the podcast. https://globalnews.ca/calgary/program/shaye-ganam/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde impartió, el día 12 de diciembre de 2024, la Conferencia Magistral "España (y Europa) en apuros" en la Fundación Rafael del Pino. Jesús Fernández Villaverde esHoward Marks Presidential Professor of Economics y Director de la Penn Initiative for the Study of the Markets en la Universidad de Pensilvania, Fellow de la Econometric Society y miembro del Nacional Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), del “grupo de los cien” y del consejo editorial de relevantes publicaciones nacionales e internacionales. Es Licenciado en Derecho y Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales por ICADE y Doctor en Economía por la Universidad de Minnesota.
The Capitalism and Freedom in the Twenty-First Century Podcast
Jon Hartley and Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde discuss Jesus's career, schools of economic thought and the role of institutions in economic history, economic growth (including recent declining GDP growth rates and declining fertility), business cycles, drivers of the early 2020s inflation, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) and vector autoregressive (VAR) models, schools of economic thought and the role of institutions in economic history. Recorded on November 1, 2024. ABOUT THE SPEAKERS: Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde is a Professor of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania, director of the Penn Institute for the Study of Markets (PISM), a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER_, and Research Affiliate of the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR). He has also been a visiting Professor at Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Oxford, and Cambridge and a visiting scholar at several Federal Reserve Banks, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Spain. His research agenda focuses on economic history, macroeconomics, and econometrics, with a focus on the computation and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Jon Hartley is a Research Assistant at the Hoover Institution and an economics PhD Candidate at Stanford University, where he specializes in finance, labor economics, and macroeconomics. He is also currently a Research Fellow at the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity (FREOPP) and a Senior Fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute. Jon is also a member of the Canadian Group of Economists, and serves as chair of the Economic Club of Miami. Jon has previously worked at Goldman Sachs Asset Management as well as in various policy roles at the World Bank, IMF, Committee on Capital Markets Regulation, US Congress Joint Economic Committee, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and the Bank of Canada. Jon has also been a regular economics contributor for National Review Online, Forbes, and The Huffington Post and has contributed to The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, USA Today, Globe and Mail, National Post, and Toronto Star among other outlets. Jon has also appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, Fox News, Bloomberg, and NBC, and was named to the 2017 Forbes 30 Under 30 Law & Policy list, the 2017 Wharton 40 Under 40 list, and was previously a World Economic Forum Global Shaper. ABOUT THE SERIES: Each episode of Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century, a video podcast series and the official podcast of the Hoover Economic Policy Working Group, focuses on getting into the weeds of economics, finance, and public policy on important current topics through one-on-one interviews. Host Jon Hartley asks guests about their main ideas and contributions to academic research and policy. The podcast is titled after Milton Friedman‘s famous 1962 bestselling book Capitalism and Freedom, which after 60 years, remains prescient from its focus on various topics which are now at the forefront of economic debates, such as monetary policy and inflation, fiscal policy, occupational licensing, education vouchers, income share agreements, the distribution of income, and negative income taxes, among many other topics. For more information, visit: capitalismandfreedom.substack.com/
Melissa Kearney is the Neil Moskowitz Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland. A research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), she is also director of the Aspen Economic Strategy Group. Dr Kearney's research focuses on issues related to social policy, poverty, and inequality and she has published numerous academic studies related to the economics of families and childbearing. She is the author of, ‘The Two-Parent Privilege: How the decline in marriage has increased inequality and lowered social mobility, and what we can do about it' - available here: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0C76N6NN1/ Follow Melissa on X: https://x.com/kearney_melissa Sponsor: Start earning A Yield on Silver, Paid in Silver with Monetary Metals. Click here to find out more: https://bit.ly/3Rs8Rv2 Join our Premium Membership for early access, extended and ad-free content: https://triggernometry.supercast.com OR Support TRIGGERnometry Here: Bitcoin: bc1qm6vvhduc6s3rvy8u76sllmrfpynfv94qw8p8d5 Music by: Music by: Xentric | info@xentricapc.com | https://www.xentricapc.com/ YouTube: @xentricapc Buy Merch Here: https://www.triggerpod.co.uk/shop/ Advertise on TRIGGERnometry: marketing@triggerpod.co.uk Join the Mailing List: https://www.triggerpod.co.uk/#mailinglist Find TRIGGERnometry on Social Media: https://twitter.com/triggerpod https://www.facebook.com/triggerpod/ https://www.instagram.com/triggerpod/ About TRIGGERnometry: Stand-up comedians Konstantin Kisin (@konstantinkisin) and Francis Foster (@francisjfoster) make sense of politics, economics, free speech, AI, drug policy and WW3 with the help of presidential advisors, renowned economists, award-winning journalists, controversial writers, leading scientists and notorious comedians. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this episode, we sit down with Professor Valentin Haddad to unpack the intricacies of market elasticity, passive investing, and the dynamic nature of financial markets. Valentin is an Associate Professor of Finance at UCLA Anderson School of Management and a research fellow for the National Bureau of Economic Research's Asset Pricing Program. His research focuses on how financial institutions trade, and manage risk, and their impact on market prices and the broader economy. Notably, his work challenges traditional assumptions, such as the perceived safety of life insurance companies' investments in Treasuries. In our conversation, we delve into the impact of index funds on the market, stock market bubbles around the development of new technology, and the response of investment-grade corporate bonds to the COVID-19 crisis. Discover the definition of demand elasticity, strategic interaction, and how market elasticity has changed over time. Explore how he defines a market bubble, ways stock market bubbles are related to new technology, and how to measure the value of innovation. We also discuss the impact of COVID-19 on investment-grade corporate bonds, the Federal Reserve's response, the implications for bond safety, and much more. Tune in and join us as we uncover the mess of the market with Professor Valentin Haddad! Key Points From This Episode: (0:03:10) The impact of passive investing on financial markets, what investors' demand elasticity is, and the role of index funds. (0:06:07) Learn about strategic interactions, their influence on financial markets, and how they react to rising passive investing. (0:10:10) Why active investors' options are limited in a passive investment landscape and how demand elasticities influence asset prices. (0:13:05) How individual investor elasticities are related to aggregate market elasticity and the ways investor elasticity has changed. (0:20:54) Large and small stock elasticity trends, the implications of his research for asset prices, and the relationship between elasticity and information. (0:25:32) His opinion on a bubble in large stocks forming due to flows into index funds and how market bubbles drive innovation. (0:29:31) Potential measures to address the issues with index funds and how individual investors should be reacting to the situation. (0:34:46) Unpack how he defines a market bubble, measuring the value of innovation, and their effect on the value of technology. (0:42:29) What his research findings mean for innovation policy and what to consider before investing in innovative companies. (0:46:33) Insights from his paper examing the impact of COVID-19 on fixed-income and the different market reactions. (0:53:40) Explore the Fed's intervention during the pandemic, what effect it had, and the safety that bonds offer during a crisis. Quotes: “You choose how you trade based on how other people are trading. So, it's not really just what you like to do, but how you react to others in the market.” — Professor Valentin Haddad (0:06:40) “If nobody's acquiring information, then markets are very inefficient. Then, you should step in, in a way. So, if everybody is becoming passive, there are more gains for being not passive.” — Professor Valentin Haddad (0:22:59) “Speculation often comes with innovation.” — Professor Valentin Haddad (0:28:30) “I think these concerns with passive investing are meaningful. I don't think it's quite yet the time for a very strong regulatory call. Regulators should keep track of this evolution.” — Professor Valentin Haddad (0:31:42) “You can gain from bubbles, but at the end, the end of the bubble comes. The long-term gains of innovation are still there, but many people who partake in the bubble are going to suffer a lot.” — Professor Valentin Haddad (0:43:57) Links From Today's Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemind Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.caBenjamin Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Professor Valentin Haddad — https://sites.google.com/site/valentinhaddadresearch/ Professor Valentin Haddad on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/valentin-haddad-0056843/ Professor Valentin Haddad Email — valentin.haddad@anderson.ucla.edu UCLA Anderson School of Management — https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/ National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) — https://www.nber.org/ Episode 212: Prof. Ralph Koijen — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/212 Papers From Today's Episode: ‘How Competitive is the Stock Market? Theory, Evidence from Portfolios, and Implications for the Rise of Passive Investing' — https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3821263 ‘Concentrated Ownership and Equilibrium Asset Prices' — https://www.stern.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/assets/documents/Princeton- Haddad - Concentrated ownership.pdf ‘Bubbles and the Value of Innovation' — https://drive.google.com/file/d/1tnvZ5L_zUcehn5hR720Nl1vtsTv4VgK0/view ‘When selling becomes viral: Disruptions in debt markets in the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed's response' — https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhaa145 ‘How Speculation Affects the Market and Outcome-Based Values of Innovation' — https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedreb/94686.html
In this episode of our podcast series dedicated to the new editions of the Handbook of Labor Economics, Arindrajit Dube, Provost Professor of Economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, tackles the contentious issue of raising the minimum wage. While some advocate the minimum wage as an effective tool to combat poverty, others have argued that it could destroy jobs and increase prices. Who's right? Prof. Dube addresses this question my summarizing what economists have learned about the impacts of minimum wages in the labor market over the last 25 years. He explains how higher minimum wages do not necessarily lead to job losses, but they could instead help firms reduce turnover and retain workers, as well as increase family incomes and reduce reliance on social assistance. Arindrajit Dube is the Provost Professor of Economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), and a Research Fellow at the Institue of Labor Economics (IZA). Professor Dube is considered a world-leading expert on the economic effects of minimum wage policies. His current areas of research include wage inequality, the importance of labor market competition, the effects of minimum wages on employment and inequality, the role of fairness concerns at the workplace and the role of firm wage policies in explaining the growth in inequality. Follow us and stay informed:
Is the traditional office becoming a thing of the past? In this episode, we sit down with Nick Bloom, Stanford professor and LinkedIn's Top Voice on Remote Work, to uncover the transformative shifts in our work models that accelerated throughout the pandemic. With two decades of research behind him, Nick provides an in-depth look at how technology has revolutionized remote and hybrid work environments. We explore the rising popularity of hybrid work models, the slowdown of the return-to-office movement, and practical advice for executives and managers navigating this new terrain. Discover how different organizations are uniquely adapting to remote work, from consulting firms to call centers. Nick shares valuable insights on how to balance flexibility with performance and the profound benefits of remote work. We dive into the importance of tailored approaches based on job nature and organizational needs, offering crucial recommendations for both startups and larger companies who are embracing or considering hybrid models. Furthermore, we discuss the challenges of managing hybrid and fully remote teams, and the impact of these models on diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives. We close out the episode discussing mental health, employee retention, and the economic reshaping due to the "donut effect.” Join us for an enlightening conversation and stay ahead of the curve in the evolving landscape of the future world. What You'll Learn: - The balance between flexibility and performance - How to tailor hybrid work for various roles and organizations - The benefits of remote work that equate to an 8% pay raise - Strategies for integrating successful remote work practices into your organization - The crucial role of choice and flexibility for mental health - Solving the mystery of remote onboarding - The ongoing shifts in workforce dynamics and hiring practices Podcast Timestamps: (00:03) - Leading Remote and Hybrid Teams (10:29) - The Future of Hybrid Work Arrangements (17:04) - Remote Work Benefits and Considerations (20:28) - Strategies for Remote Work Integration (33:06) - Remote Work – Impacts on DEI and Productivity (43:40) - Mental Health and Remote Onboarding (52:00) – The Future of (Remote) Work More of Nick: Nick Bloom is a professor in the Department of Economics and, by courtesy, at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. He co-directs the Productivity, Innovation and Entrepreneurship program at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and is a fellow at both the Centre for Economic Performance and the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. Bloom's research focuses on management practices, working with McKinsey & Company and Accenture to gather extensive data and conduct management experiments, and he has extensively studied the impacts of large uncertainty shocks on the U.S. economy. He lives on the Stanford campus with his wife and three children, maintaining a multi-lingual household influenced by his London roots and his Scottish wife. LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nick-bloom-86b79510b/ Key Topics Discussed: Remote Work, Hybrid Work, Nick Bloom, Future of Work, Technology Advancements, Managing Work, Job Satisfaction, Employee Retention, Inclusion, Mental Health, Onboarding, Hiring Practices, Work Dynamics, Productivity, Flexibility, Connectivity More of Do Good to Lead Well: Website: https://craigdowden.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/craigdowden/ --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/craig-dowden/message
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG,. __ So many market participants now regard an inverted yield curve as a harbinger of a recession, due to the indicator's perfect track record of preceding an economic slowdown. Today, Jack interviews the founder of this economic indicator, Campbell R. Harvey. Harvey shares how he discovered this signal in the bond market in the 1980s, and how it has an 8 out 8 track record in preceding recessions (with zero false signal). An inverted yield curve is when short-term interest rates exceed long-term interest rates. Harvey's specific signal on which he wrote his dissertation in 1986 (his thesis advisor was Eugene Fama, Nobel Prize-winning economist) was the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 3-month Treasury yield. It is this indicator which has an 8/8 perfect track record, not the 2s10s (10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year Treasury yield), which as Harvey notes gave a false signal in 1998. Harvey argues that since his 10-year / 3-month signal inverted in the fall of 2022, the first and second quarter of 2024 is when a potential economic slowdown would occur (the average lag between the inversion of the 10-year / 3-month spread is 12 months, but the longest lag is 22 months). However, Harvey notes that there are several positive forces supporting the U.S. economy, such as fiscal stimulus and a strong labor market, as seen by job vacancies in excess of unemployment. While Harvey hopes that these forces can induce a “soft landing,” it is his base case that the 10-year / 3-month inversion will go 9 for 9 in forecasting an economic slowdown. Harvey is Professor of Finance at Duke University's Fuqua School of Business, Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Director of Research and Partner at Research Affiliates, and author of the book “DeFi and the Future of Finance.” Filmed on January 16, 2024. __ Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. Visit VanEck.com or call 800-826-2333 to carefully read a prospectus before investing. The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) is distributed by VanEck Securities Corporation, a wholly-owned subsidiary of VanEck Associates Corporation __ Follow Cam Harvey on Twitter https://twitter.com/camharvey?lang=en Cam Harvey on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/camharvey/ Cam Harvey's website https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/ Cam Harvey's Original 1986 Dissertation on Inverted Yield Curve: https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/Research/Thesis/Thesis.pdf Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks' Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (12:07) Early 2023 Harvey Raised Possibility That "This Might Be A False Signal" (18:39) VanEck Ad (19:18) Inverted Curves Go From Predicting Recessions To... Causing Them? (21:04) The Theoretical Support For Why Inverted Yield Curves Precede Recessions (25:18) The Impact Of Expectations of Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy On The Yield Curve (30:52) Factors That Support A Soft Landing: Tight Labor Market and Strong Housing Market (36:44) What About The Chance That There Was Already A Recession In 2022? (42:41) Worries About The Banking System And "A Future Credit Squeeze" (46:05) Fed Should Cut Rates Right Now, Since Shelter Inflation Data Is Extremely Lagging (55:04) Closing Thoughts On Yield Curve __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice.
In this episode, Xavier Bonilla has a dialogue with Melissa Kearney about the two-parent privilege. They define what is the two-parent privilege, the class gap in families and importance of college educated parents. They talk about conservative family values and views on two-parent households, two parents working outside of the home, working moms, stay-at-home moms, and single moms. They talk about the child tax credit, childhood poverty, birth rates, and many more topics. Melissa S. Kearney is the Neil Moskowitz Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland and Director of the Aspen Economic Strategy Group. She is a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); a non-resident Senior Fellow at Brookings; a scholar affiliate and member of the board of the Notre Dame Wilson-Sheehan Lab for Economic Opportunities (LEO); and a scholar affiliate of the MIT Abdul Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL). She is an editorial board member of the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy and Journal of Economic Literature, and a former co-editor of the Journal of Human Resources and Senior Editor of Future of Children. She holds a BA in Economics from Princeton University and a PhD in Economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. She is the author of the book, The Two-Parent Privilege: How Americans Stopped Getting Married and Started Falling Behind. Website: http://econweb.umd.edu/~kearney/melissa_website/index.htmlTwitter: @kearney_melissa Get full access to Converging Dialogues at convergingdialogues.substack.com/subscribe
Rebecca McLaughlin is joined by Mark Shepard to discuss his story of how he started following Jesus.Questions Covered in This Episode:Tell us more about your upbringing when it comes to faith.Was there a time in your life where you just didn't believe in God?Most of my Jewish friends identify with the cultural and tradition but don't believe in God. Did you identify with that?How did you first become interested in Christianity?Was there anything in particular in the Bible that grabbed you?Tell us how you responded to the idea that you are actually deeply sinful?How have you found faith in Jesus has helped you navigate success and failure?How would you say that Christians can better understand the University? And how can we help people in the University who aren't Christians understand Christianity?Guest Bio:Mark Shepard is an associate professor at Harvard Kennedy School of Government and a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). His research studies health care markets, with topics at the intersection of health, industrial organization, and public economics. Mark received a PhD in economics from Harvard University and an A.B. in applied math from Harvard. He is married to Annetta Zhou and they have two daughters. Resources Mentioned:Matthew 5-7, Mark 10:41-45, Ephesians 2:11-22, Jeremiah 29:7Sponsors:To learn more about our sponsors please visit our website.Follow Us:Instagram | TwitterOur Sister Shows:Knowing Faith | The Family Discipleship Podcast | Starting Place | Tiny TheologiansConfronting Christianity is a podcast of Training the Church. For ad-free episodes and more content check out our Patreon.
In this episode of Ventures, I (https://www.linkedin.com/in/wclittle) discuss cases for and against the skill/productivity gap widening in light of Generative AI such as ChatGPT and Midjourney. On the “for” side, I discuss a YouTube video showing how to go from MidJourney to Figma to Code, and I show how this - and tools like GitHub CoPilot - enhances the work of already-skilled programmers. On the “against” side, I show a recent study from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) that demonstrated GenAI most greatly enhancing the productivity of novice and low-skilled workers. Visit https://satchel.works/@wclittle/ventures-episode-146 for more information. You can watch this episode via video here. 0:03 - Tee-up for the episode, where to find the audio and/or video for this screencast, talking about the skill gap and GenAI0:39 - Case for the skill gap being widened: Examples from a YouTube video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_A_Jpr9HkGA&ab_channel=CJGammon) and GitHub Copilot (https://github.com/features/copilot) 3:14 - Case for the skill gap narrowing: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w31161/w31161.pdf // Study showing that the skill gap is narrowing. 14% increase in productivity for all workers, and even more for novice and low-skilled workers. 4:36 - Link to McKinsey's article: https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/mckinsey-explainers/what-is-generative-ai 4:48 - Access GPT-4 for free with Bing. Example using Bing Chat to ask about Satchel.Works
Victoria is Professor of Finance and Head of the Finance Unit at Harvard Business School. She is also the faculty chair of the Global Initiative for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. She is a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a Research Fellow at the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), a Visiting Scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, and a member of the Model Validation Council at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Victoria co-heads Harvard Business School's Private Capital Initiative and Private Equity and Venture Capital (PEVC) executive education program. She is a co-author of Patient Capital: The Challenges and Promises of Long-Term Investing and Private Equity: A Case Book. In this podcast, we discuss characteristics of long-term investing, private equity, private debt, venture capital, types of investors in these asset market, and much more.
Anyone who has invested for more than a few years has seen their share of bear markets, bull markets, down economies, and recessions. But each circumstance is different. Heraclitus said that you can't step into the same river twice: The person is different, and the river is different. When the economy turns downward, what are some strategies you should keep in mind? What's the context around the current market and macroeconomic conditions? In this episode, Mark Riepe interviews Schwab's chief investment strategist, Liz Ann Sonders.A few of the issues Mark and Liz Ann discuss include:How and why we label the economy as being in a recession;What an "earnings recession" and a "rolling recession" are;Inflation and interest rates;Unemployment, the housing market, and many other topics.Follow Financial Decoder for free on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen.Financial Decoder is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit Schwab.com/FinancialDecoder. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresInvestors should consider carefully information contained in the prospectus or, if available, the summary prospectus, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Please read it carefully before investing.The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.Investing involves risk including loss of principal.Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes please see www.schwab.com/indexdefinitions.The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is a private, nonpartisan organization that facilitates cutting-edge investigation and analysis of major economic issues.(1022-27JC)
Anyone who has invested for more than a few years has seen their share of bear markets, bull markets, down economies, and recessions. But each circumstance is different. Heraclitus said that you can't step into the same river twice: The person is different, and the river is different. When the economy turns downward, what are some strategies you should keep in mind? What's the context around the current market and macroeconomic conditions? In this episode, Mark Riepe interviews Schwab's chief investment strategist, Liz Ann Sonders.A few of the issues Mark and Liz Ann discuss include:How and why we label the economy as being in a recession;What an "earnings recession" and a "rolling recession" are;Inflation and interest rates;Unemployment, the housing market, and many other topics.Follow Financial Decoder for free on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen.Financial Decoder is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit Schwab.com/FinancialDecoder. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresInvestors should consider carefully information contained in the prospectus or, if available, the summary prospectus, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Please read it carefully before investing.The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.Investing involves risk including loss of principal.Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes please see www.schwab.com/indexdefinitions.The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is a private, nonpartisan organization that facilitates cutting-edge investigation and analysis of major economic issues.(1022-27JC)
Today's Guest: Stefan Tsvetkov Stefan is a financial engineer turned multifamily investor, analytics speaker, live webinar host, and the founder of RealtyQuant - a company that brings data-driven and quantitative techniques to the real estate industry. They utilize a data-driven approach to seek inefficiencies in the U.S. multifamily market. RealtyQuant Analytics uses a collection of state-level and county-level reports and data to assist investors in best gauging overvalued real estate markets and their appreciation potential. They have also developed statistical predictors for market appreciation and a valuation metric to gauge market downside risk. With RealtyQuant, Stefan is on a mission to add industry value through education, investment, technology, and analytics. Highlights From The Show: We begin the episode with Stefan sharing his background story and how he ended up in real estate. Stefan shares that he's from Europe. He came to the States at 22 years old to pursue his master's in financial engineering in New York City and worked in finance for about a decade. Stefan shares that for the last couple of years, he has been investing in commercial real estate in the Midwest. Stefan is also the founder of RealtyQuant, a data analytic industry in real estate, where he does different property and market analytics. He has done studies on prior market recessions and published market evaluation metrics for every single county in the country. We then discuss what is happening and Stefan's outlook on what will come in the next 18-24 months. He shares that the most distinctive thing he has seen that shows we're not yet in a recession is that inflation is high, and it goes heavily down in recessions. The second distinctive factor he shares is that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) metrics that show whether we are in a recession or not are very subjective to factors such as personal expenditure. According to Stefan, what he is interested in as a marketer and investor is the market he's investing in and understanding if he will be able to carry down the risk if it hits a recession at some point. They do studies in these areas, and they have appreciation predictors which account for population growth, income growth, and so forth to show the kind of appreciation to expect in different markets. According to Stefan, understanding market relations is key. It's not about having a doomsday perspective if you have negative exposure in a recession but more about what will be your relative performance. Next, we talk about how the politics of a state can affect the over and undervaluation of properties in real estate. Stefan shares that politics have an effect on the population, demographics, and migration shifts. Stefan also explains that being protected in a recession is not about investing in strong markets which decline at a higher rate. For instance, during the previous recession, very desired markets like California, Arizona, and Florida declined, while undesired markets like West Virginia and Mississippi had no decline in the real estate crisis. Stefan shares that strong markets are generally riskier when it comes to property depreciation during recessions because they tend to become overheated. Lastly, we talk about how states and regions are overvalued, and those that should look out for that are undervalued right now. Stefan shares that the undervalued regions tend to decline very little. Normally the drop is 10 to 12%, but in the undervalued states, the average decline was only 4%. For instance, if you had a property in North Dakota, it had 0% depreciation because it was very undervalued at the time. According to him, with evaluation, you can invest at any time in a very educated way, and the best top ten states, which are also the best markets, are the western and southern states. In terms of undervalued, he recommends you look for poorly performing states like Illinois, North Dakota, Louisiana, and Connecticut. Make sure you don't miss another amazing episode of the Just Start Real Estate Podcast with Stefan Tsvetkov and get valuable information on the most undervalued markets you should be investing in now! Notable Quotes: “We're not yet in a recession, inflation is high, and it goes down heavily in recessions.” Stefan Tsvetkov “Strong markets are generally riskier when it comes to property depreciation during recessions because they tend to become overheated.” Stefan Tsvetkov “Having comprehensive data is important when things are moving; you need to know what is happening and look ahead, but you can't just look a year behind you to know what will happen a year ahead of you.” Mike Simmons “If you stay under the same market cycle, you will continue to appreciate.“ Stefan Tsvetkov Thank You for Listening! Connect with Mike on Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, Linkedin, Facebook Help Out the Show: Leave an honest review on iTunes. Your ratings and reviews really help, and I read each one. Subscribe on iTunes. Resources and Links From Today's Show: RealtyQuant Finance Meet Real Estate Stefan on LinkedIn Stefan on Facebook More Resources From Mike: Level Jumping: How I Grew My Business to Over $1 Million in Profits in 12 Months WINNING DIRECT MAIL - How to CRUSH IT with direct mail! 7 Figure Investor Video Course - Scale your business to 7 figures. I'll show you how!
For this podcast, I typically interview founders and investors, but there are times that I like to switch things up and get a different perspective about startups and entrepreneurship. Thus, I was excited to interview Jorge, as he teaches Entrepreneurial Strategy at Columbia Business School and his research has been focused on entrepreneurship policy, regional entrepreneurship, and entrepreneurial strategy. He is also one of the creators of The Startup Cartography Project, which is an interactive map showcasing the quantity, quality, and performance of entrepreneurship across America. Jorge received his PhD from the Sloan School of Management at MIT, and was previously a postdoc at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and a lecturer at MIT Sloan. In this episode of our podcast, we cover: * Jorge's thoughts on the current economic conditions and what it means for entrepreneurs. * His background story and the path his career took to becoming a professor. * The latest in terms of the entrepreneurial culture at Columbia Business School, including the details on the school's brand new Manhattanville campus. * The expansion of entrepreneurship across lots of different regions and does it matter to be in Silicon Valley? * A discussion on his research around the gender gap in entrepreneurship. * Common mistakes that Jorge sees entrepreneurs make over and over again. * And so much more. If you like the show, please remember to subscribe and review us on iTunes, Soundcloud, Spotify, Stitcher, or Google Play.
Hour 1 * Guest: Bryan Rust – Over the past 50 years, Rust Coins has been working to educate customers about precious metals – RustCoinAndGift.com * Guest: Kelly Finnegan, Senior Chemist Joins us on air. * Honest Money Report: Gold: $1689.70 Silver: $19.63. * Biden Fires Warning Shot He's warned you that he plans to raise: Income taxes, Death taxes, Capital gains taxes, Corporate taxes – Let's not forget the massive inflation time bomb – If you don't plan for this now, You may as well kiss your retirement savings goodbye. * It's Official: The Joe Biden Recession is in full force! – No matter how much the White House or its cronies in the corrupt corporate media try to cover up the nation's economic crises, the U.S. economy is in fact in a recession. * What Is A Recession? * The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally recognized as the authority that defines the starting and ending dates of US recessions – NBER.org * NBER has its own definition of what constitutes a recession, namely “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.” * Harm Reduction: Biden Admin Is Funding Drug Supply Vending Machines In Rural Kentucky – Spending nearly $3.6 million to help fuel the drug epidemic with “harm reduction kiosks.” According to the NIH. * A vote on HR 8404, the misnamed “Respect for Marriage Act,” is coming next week – It will be very close. This bill will force same-sex, child bride, incestuous and polygamous “marriages” on the nation. Hour 2 * Guest: Dick Morris, American political consultant, author, commentator, and strategis – #1 New York Times bestselling author, who is also a true political pro. Great book, get it now!” said Pres. Trump on Truth Social – DickMorris.com * Book: The Return: Trump's Big 2024 Comeback. * FBI Paid off Russian to be a Confidential Informant Against Donald Trump! * Morris: I do not believe that President Trump sent the documents in his possession to Mar-a-Lago to hide them from the FBI and the public. I think he took them with him precisely not to hide them but to expose them – Raid Not About Trump Evading FBI, but ‘FBI Evading Him'. * Trump Indictment Unlikely. After Judge's Ruling. * Dick: Don't Believe Hillary: She's Going To Run. * Defund The New IRS Agents Next Year. * Guest: Eldon Stahl – Field Coordinator – The John Birch Society – JBS.org – TheNewAmerican.com * A Congressional Scorecard Based on the US Constitution – Freedom Index and Scorecards – TheFreedomIndex.org * California's Newsom Signs Social Media Bill to Remove “Hate Speech” and “Extremism.” Defined by Whom? – James Murphy, TheNewAmerican.com * Newsom: “California will not stand by as social media is weaponized to spread hate and disinformation that threaten our communities and foundational values as a country,” --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/loving-liberty/support
* Guest: Bryan Rust - Over the past 50 years, Rust Coins has been working to educate customers about precious metals - RustCoinAndGift.com * Guest: Kelly Finnegan, Senior Chemist Joins us on air. * Honest Money Report: Gold: $1689.70 Silver: $19.63. * Biden Fires Warning Shot He's warned you that he plans to raise: Income taxes, Death taxes, Capital gains taxes, Corporate taxes - Let's not forget the massive inflation time bomb - If you don't plan for this now, You may as well kiss your retirement savings goodbye. * It's Official: The Joe Biden Recession is in full force! - No matter how much the White House or its cronies in the corrupt corporate media try to cover up the nation's economic crises, the U.S. economy is in fact in a recession. * What Is A Recession? * The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally recognized as the authority that defines the starting and ending dates of US recessions - NBER.org * NBER has its own definition of what constitutes a recession, namely “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.” * Harm Reduction: Biden Admin Is Funding Drug Supply Vending Machines In Rural Kentucky - Spending nearly $3.6 million to help fuel the drug epidemic with "harm reduction kiosks." According to the NIH. * A vote on HR 8404, the misnamed “Respect for Marriage Act,” is coming next week - It will be very close. This bill will force same-sex, child bride, incestuous and polygamous “marriages” on the nation.
“Religion is the sigh of the oppressed creature,” wrote Karl Marx, “…the opium of the people.” Decades of often painful historical experience has proven his observation both right and wrong. Believing in God does ease pain and suffering of faithful followers, but he was wrong in thinking that religion, especially Christianity, leaves them with nowhere else to go from there. A recent article in The Economist put it this way: “Religious belief really does seem to draw the sting of poverty.” Although there is a correlation between poverty and decreased mental health, the article highlighted German sociologist Dr. Jana Berkessel's recent findings that religion significantly mitigates this effect. A variety of similar studies confirm this. Regular attendance at religious services consistently correlates with longer life spans, stronger immune systems, and lower blood pressure, as well as decreased anxiety, depression, and suicide. Kids raised in religious households have a lower incidence of drug addiction, delinquency, and incarceration. They're more likely to graduate high school. In short, the nearly unanimous scientific consensus is that religious belief is good for you. Of course, Marx's point was that these benefits only serve to keep people content in their chains and to keep them distracted so much by the next world that they do nothing to change this one. Many critics today take the critique even further. Religion, especially Christianity, has not only been used to pacify people in their oppression but is the very source of it. Of course, the charge that Christianity has been co-opted, corrupted, and weaponized to justify all kinds of abuse, conquest, and enslavement, is undeniable. At the same time, it's also undeniable that Christianity has been a global force for the kinds of goods now so pervasive, it's hard to even imagine the world without them. Many of the rights and principles we consider to be naturally occurring features of the world only came to be by the influence of Christianity. In the ancient pagan world, violence, rape, infant exposure, and prostitution were rules, not exceptions. Almost immediately, Christianity began to revolutionize pagan ethics, particularly in its view of the poor and the outcast. Roman Emperor Julian famously wrote that when the “impious Galileans support not only their poor, but ours as well, all men see that our people lack aid from us.” To a world with no reason to believe in the equality of all people, Christianity taught that “there is no Gentile or Jew, circumcised or uncircumcised, barbarian, Scythian, slave, or free, but Christ is all, and is in all.” This belief was grounded in the Christian view of the human person, which had no parallel in the ancient world and which created an explosion of literacy, social mobility, and human rights that we now take for granted in the modern world. Christianity's unique contributions in humanizing the modern world are yet another reason to not simply lump all “religious beliefs” into the one blanket category. All religions are simply not the same, not in substance nor impact. Economist Robin Grier, for example, conducted a cross-national survey of 63 formerly European colonies. She found that, across the board, Protestant Christianity, in particular, was “positively and significantly correlated with real GDP growth,” and that “the level of Protestantism is significantly related to real per capita income levels.” A National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) paper found that only certain religious beliefs—notably beliefs about heaven, hell, and an afterlife—are linked with economic growth. In other words, it's not just about having a “religion,” but about what your religion teaches. Consider Africa. A recent paper from NBER analyzed educational outcomes among religious children. Though Africa is becoming increasingly religious across the board, the paper found that in many countries, “primary school completion for Christians was more than double that of Muslims or Africans adhering to local religions.” Christian communities far outpace others when it comes to intergenerational educational growth. Writing in 1843, Karl Marx couldn't have anticipated how thoroughly science would analyze his claims about religion. He'd likely have been among the modern theorists surprised that the world is becoming more religious, not less. As one writer with The Brookings Institution put it, “While weak state structures collapse and aid agencies switch priorities, one group of actors persist against all odds: religious institutions.” Of course, this isn't why anyone should believe the truth claims of Christianity. They should be believed if they are true. At the same time, the fact that Christian belief has been an educational, social, and economic ladder for millions suggests these beliefs ought to be taken seriously.
In today's episode of The Higher Standard, Chris offers up some fresh insights and opinions on Nancy Pelosi's ill-advised trip to Taiwan and the Democrat's new stimulus package. In this episode you'll discover: - Nancy Pelosi's problematic trip to Taiwan and the diplomatic repercussions. - The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, introduced by the Democrats. - Comments made during a CNBC interview with James Poterba, President and Chief Executive Officer of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and the Mitsui Professor of Economics at MIT. This is a show you do not want to miss! Join Chris for this fascinating conversation. Enjoy! What You'll Learn in this Show: Nancy Pelosi's problematic trip to Taiwan and the diplomatic repercussions. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, introduced by the Democrats. Comments made during a CNBC interview with James Poterba, President and Chief Executive Officer of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and the Mitsui Professor of Economics at MIT. And so much more...
This is Garrison Hardie with your CrossPolitic Daily News Brief for Wednesday, August 3rd, 2022. Today we’ve got drama overseas, as Nancy Pelosi defies China’s warnings, in her visit to Taiwan… Then close to home, the DOJ sues Idaho over law imposing a ‘near total ban on abortion’... this and more on this news brief…. But first: Dropwave Do you have a podcast, or thinking about starting one? Does your church have a podcast feed for sermons? The Dropwave.io is for you. Cancel culture is like walking on a thin glass bridge over the Grand Canyon. Every step you take could get you killed, I mean canceled. Since the beginning CrossPolitic has been working on being antifragile, so no matter what happens, our content can still be delivered to your tv and to your podcast. This past year, the Waterboy and his friend Jeremi, have been working on building a podcast hosting solution for rowdy platforms like CrossPolitic, so that you can be confident your podcast will never fall through that glass bridge. Dropwave offers seamless onboarding for shows that have been around for years to easy to use solutions for starting your own podcast. Dropwave will track all your show’s downloads by city, state, and country, and it offers network and enterprise packages for solutions like the Fight Laugh Feast Network. Free to speak, Free to podcast, free to start your journey now at www.Dropwave.io. Alright, back to China… they’re not happy with Nancy Pelosi… who is though? https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-furious-pelosi-lands-taiwan-promises-all-necessary-measures-defend-itself China furious after Pelosi lands in Taiwan, promises 'all necessary measures' to defend itself The People's Republic of China released a lengthy statement Tuesday condemning the arrival of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to the island of Taiwan. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs published the statement, in which the Chinese government accuses Pelosi, D-Calif., of undermining U.S.-China relations and encouraging the "separatist forces for ‘Taiwan independence.’" Pelosi landed in Taiwan late Tuesday night local time, making her the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the island since Newt Gingrich in 1997. "This is a serious violation of the one-China principle and the provisions of the three China-U.S. joint communiqués. It has a severe impact on the political foundation of China-U.S. relations, and seriously infringes upon China's sovereignty and territorial integrity," the Ministry of Foreign Affairs wrote. "There is but one China in the world, Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's territory, and the Government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China." The People's Republic of China has long claimed sovereignty over Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait, the relatively narrow strip of ocean between the island of Taiwan and the Chinese mainland. The Chinese military has frequently sent planes into the area, testing Taiwan's air defense zone. The USS Ronald Reagan and a strike group are currently positioned near Taiwan after they left a port in Singapore on Tuesday. A Navy spokesperson confirmed the news but said it was a planned trip. Pelosi is traveling with a House delegation that includes Democratic Reps. Gregory Meeks of New York, Mark Takano of California, Suzan DelBene of Washington, Raja Krishnamoorthi of Illinois and Andy Kim of New Jersey. Here’s more from Fox News on this developing situation: China issues new threats after Pelosi lands in Taiwan-Play 0:52-2:30 The world awaits… it’s going to be interesting to see what our Lord has in store through this situation developing in Taiwan… Let’s shift our eyes back to the U.S. as Idaho is in the news… https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/justice/doj-sues-idaho-over-state-law-near-total-abortion-ban DOJ sues Idaho over law imposing 'near-total ban' on abortion The Justice Department filed a lawsuit against Idaho over the state's law banning abortion after six weeks, Attorney General Merrick Garland announced Tuesday. The legal filing marks the first time President Joe Biden's Justice Department launched a challenge against a state for abortion restrictions since the landmark June 24 Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision overturned a half-century of abortion access precedent, which the president decried as a "realization of an extreme ideology and a tragic error by the Supreme Court." The suit, filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Idaho, contends that the federal Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act preempts the state law. The federal law requires physicians to perform medically stabilizing abortions in an emergency. Garland explained there are circumstances in which abortion is "necessary" if a patient is undergoing an unstable condition during pregnancy. Associate Attorney General Vanita Gupta, who leads the reproductive rights task force, said the DOJ is seeking a declaratory judgment that Idaho's law "violates the supremacy clause of the United States Constitution and is preempted by federal law where it conflicts with EMTALA." The federal agency's lawsuit noted that the state has "passed a near-absolute ban on abortion,” which after taking effect on Aug. 25 will make it a criminal offense to perform an abortion “in all but extremely narrow circumstances.” Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra also released a statement following the DOJ's announcement, saying the department will continue to partner with the DOJ to enforce federal laws protecting healthcare "including abortions." Meanwhile, the Idaho Supreme Court is slated to hear arguments Wednesday on challenges over its near-total abortion ban, according to the Idaho Press. Attorneys for Idaho will seek to protect three separate restrictive abortion laws passed by the state. Ladies and gentleman, please keep our state in your prayers as a legal battle takes center stage. We wish to see this abomination of abortion brought down in Idaho, and this would be a huge step. https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/01/health/california-newsom-state-of-emergency-monkeypox/index.html Elsewhere in the US, California and Illinois declare states of emergency over monkeypox outbreak This is from CNN. The governors of California and Illinois declared states of emergency to bolster their monkeypox vaccination efforts as the virus spreads nationwide. Monday's declarations come as more than 5,800 probable or confirmed cases of monkeypox have been reported in the US. California had more than 800 cases Tuesday, while Illinois had more than 500, according to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. While the World Health Organization has declared the monkeypox outbreak a public health emergency of international concern, the Biden administration has not issued a nationwide public health emergency declaration. California is the third and largest state to issue a statewide declaration related to the disease. New York was the first to do so. California's move allows emergency medical services personnel throughout the state to administer FDA-approved monkeypox vaccines, expanding the pool of people able to inoculate residents against the virus even as a vaccine shortage persists. Illinois' declaration also will make more resources available to combat the virus, Gov. J.B. Pritzker said. The Chicago and state public health departments announced Illinois' first presumptive case June 2. Monkeypox is a poxvirus, related to smallpox, that usually causes pimple- or blister-like lesions, as well as flu-like symptoms such as fever, headaches, muscle aches, chills and respiratory symptoms, according to the CDC. And guys, great news, I found out a great way to avoid Monkey Pox, here it is… don’t be gay! Be heterosexual, and find a godly man or woman to marry, and you’re home free! Yes I realize it’s probably not that simple. But anyways… California has received more than 61,000 vaccine doses so far and distributed more than 25,000, according to the governor's news release. Los Angeles County has received its own vaccine allocation, and state officials said California will make additional allocations in the coming weeks. Last week, Sodom… oh wait I mean, San Francisco became the first major US city to declare a local health emergency on monkeypox. Now hidden towards the bottom of CNN’s article is this following paragraph: “A large number of cases in this outbreak have been in men who have sex with men, including gay and bisexual men, and public health officials are focusing their prevention efforts on this group. The virus is not unique to this community, but the nature of its close-contact spread has led to a disproportionate impact.” Following the emergency declaration in California, Equality California, a major LGBT rights nonprofit organization, applauded the governor's move, noting in a statement that the virus "continues to disproportionately affect gay, bisexual and queer men here in California and across the country." Hey speaking of gays, are you being discriminated against at your work place because you hold to the Bible? Then you need to talk to my friends at RedBalloon.work. Redballoon Not so long ago, the American dream was alive and well. Employees who worked hard were rewarded, and employers looked for people who could do the job, not for people who had the right political views. RedBalloon.work is a job site designed to get us back to what made American businesses successful: free speech, hard work, and having fun. If you are a free speech employer who wants to hire employees who focus on their work and not identity politics, then post a job on RedBalloon. If you are an employee who is being censored at work or is being forced to comply with the current zeitgeist, post your resume on RedBalloon and look for a new job. redballoon.work, the job site where free speech is still alive! www.redballoon.work Alright, enough of that happy stuff from our friends at reballoon, let’s get back to our corrupt society! https://dailycaller.com/2022/08/01/phillip-magness-facebook-recession-fack-check/ ‘Orwellian Hellscape’: Top Economist Says Facebook Fact-Checked Recession Claim To Cover For White House A top economist slammed Facebook’s “Orwellian” fact-checking system after he was given a “partly false” rating for stating the U.S. entered a recession. Dr. Phillip Magness, the research and education director at the American Institute for Economic Research, shared a screenshot of a recent post from July 24 that Facebook fact-checked. “Independent fact-checkers reviewed the photo and said it was partly false,” the fact-check read. “Facebook added a notice to the post.” Magness called the fact-check “Orwellian.” “We live in an Orwellian hell-scape,” Magness posted. “Facebook is now ‘fact-checking’ anyone who questions the White House’s word-games about the definition of a recession.” Magness furthered his assertion in a recent Wall Street Journal (WSJ) op-ed that the U.S. is, in fact, in a recession, and that the Biden administration is trying to cover it up by “playing word games.” Newly released data shows the real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 0.9% in the second quarter of 2022, marking the second consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth. While the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) uses several factors to determine whether the U.S. is in a recession, economist Julius Shiskin wrote in 1974 that two consecutive quarters of declining GDP is a good rule of thumb to define a recession, with that definition becoming somewhat of a standard. The White House has gone out of its way to deny that the economy is in a recession, with President Joe Biden declaring Thursday the state of the economy “doesn’t sound like a recession.” The White House also posted a blog that said the NBER indicated there is a “strong growth in the U.S. economy” and therefore the current state of things does not indicate a recession. Things have become so confusing that Wikipedia had to place a pause on editing the term “recession” after the definition was altered 41 times within roughly one week. Users repeatedly deleted the technical definition that described a recession as having two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. So, you guys know me… I love to end my segments with my favorite topic, sports! Well today I’m not going to talk about sports, I’m going to talk about NASCAR. Oh zinger! Now I know… I know… your body goes through a lot of stress in NASCAR, I get it… let’s just get into the story… Ty Dillon After Getting Run Over By Kyle Larson: “Luckily The Good Lord Was Keeping An Eye Out For Me, Keeping Me Safe” Ty Dillon thanked God for keeping him safe after Kyle Larson slammed into during the events of the NASCAR Cup Series race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Larson ran over Dillon going around 170 mph coming into the sharp right hand turn 1. As Larson attempted to make the corner with Dillon on his outside, he launched over the curb into Dillon’s door. Kyle Larson has issue, slams into Ty Dillon at Indy- Play 1:35-2:26 Well Thank God both drivers were okay. As I’ve said before you can find all of the articles and sources for our newsbriefs in the show notes, and you’ll be able to see the crash for yourselves, and it could have been a lot worse. This has been your CrossPolitic Daily News Brief… If you liked the show, hit that share button for me would ya? If you want to sign up for a club membership, sign up for our conference, or become a magazine subscriber, you could do all of that at fightlaughfeast.com, and if you want to reach out to me about corporate partnerships, our conference, or just a news story you want me to cover, email me at garrison@fightlaughfeast.com… For CrossPolitic news, I’m Garrison Hardie. Have a great day, and Lord bless.
This is Garrison Hardie with your CrossPolitic Daily News Brief for Wednesday, August 3rd, 2022. Today we’ve got drama overseas, as Nancy Pelosi defies China’s warnings, in her visit to Taiwan… Then close to home, the DOJ sues Idaho over law imposing a ‘near total ban on abortion’... this and more on this news brief…. But first: Dropwave Do you have a podcast, or thinking about starting one? Does your church have a podcast feed for sermons? The Dropwave.io is for you. Cancel culture is like walking on a thin glass bridge over the Grand Canyon. Every step you take could get you killed, I mean canceled. Since the beginning CrossPolitic has been working on being antifragile, so no matter what happens, our content can still be delivered to your tv and to your podcast. This past year, the Waterboy and his friend Jeremi, have been working on building a podcast hosting solution for rowdy platforms like CrossPolitic, so that you can be confident your podcast will never fall through that glass bridge. Dropwave offers seamless onboarding for shows that have been around for years to easy to use solutions for starting your own podcast. Dropwave will track all your show’s downloads by city, state, and country, and it offers network and enterprise packages for solutions like the Fight Laugh Feast Network. Free to speak, Free to podcast, free to start your journey now at www.Dropwave.io. Alright, back to China… they’re not happy with Nancy Pelosi… who is though? https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-furious-pelosi-lands-taiwan-promises-all-necessary-measures-defend-itself China furious after Pelosi lands in Taiwan, promises 'all necessary measures' to defend itself The People's Republic of China released a lengthy statement Tuesday condemning the arrival of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to the island of Taiwan. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs published the statement, in which the Chinese government accuses Pelosi, D-Calif., of undermining U.S.-China relations and encouraging the "separatist forces for ‘Taiwan independence.’" Pelosi landed in Taiwan late Tuesday night local time, making her the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the island since Newt Gingrich in 1997. "This is a serious violation of the one-China principle and the provisions of the three China-U.S. joint communiqués. It has a severe impact on the political foundation of China-U.S. relations, and seriously infringes upon China's sovereignty and territorial integrity," the Ministry of Foreign Affairs wrote. "There is but one China in the world, Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's territory, and the Government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China." The People's Republic of China has long claimed sovereignty over Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait, the relatively narrow strip of ocean between the island of Taiwan and the Chinese mainland. The Chinese military has frequently sent planes into the area, testing Taiwan's air defense zone. The USS Ronald Reagan and a strike group are currently positioned near Taiwan after they left a port in Singapore on Tuesday. A Navy spokesperson confirmed the news but said it was a planned trip. Pelosi is traveling with a House delegation that includes Democratic Reps. Gregory Meeks of New York, Mark Takano of California, Suzan DelBene of Washington, Raja Krishnamoorthi of Illinois and Andy Kim of New Jersey. Here’s more from Fox News on this developing situation: China issues new threats after Pelosi lands in Taiwan-Play 0:52-2:30 The world awaits… it’s going to be interesting to see what our Lord has in store through this situation developing in Taiwan… Let’s shift our eyes back to the U.S. as Idaho is in the news… https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/justice/doj-sues-idaho-over-state-law-near-total-abortion-ban DOJ sues Idaho over law imposing 'near-total ban' on abortion The Justice Department filed a lawsuit against Idaho over the state's law banning abortion after six weeks, Attorney General Merrick Garland announced Tuesday. The legal filing marks the first time President Joe Biden's Justice Department launched a challenge against a state for abortion restrictions since the landmark June 24 Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision overturned a half-century of abortion access precedent, which the president decried as a "realization of an extreme ideology and a tragic error by the Supreme Court." The suit, filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Idaho, contends that the federal Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act preempts the state law. The federal law requires physicians to perform medically stabilizing abortions in an emergency. Garland explained there are circumstances in which abortion is "necessary" if a patient is undergoing an unstable condition during pregnancy. Associate Attorney General Vanita Gupta, who leads the reproductive rights task force, said the DOJ is seeking a declaratory judgment that Idaho's law "violates the supremacy clause of the United States Constitution and is preempted by federal law where it conflicts with EMTALA." The federal agency's lawsuit noted that the state has "passed a near-absolute ban on abortion,” which after taking effect on Aug. 25 will make it a criminal offense to perform an abortion “in all but extremely narrow circumstances.” Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra also released a statement following the DOJ's announcement, saying the department will continue to partner with the DOJ to enforce federal laws protecting healthcare "including abortions." Meanwhile, the Idaho Supreme Court is slated to hear arguments Wednesday on challenges over its near-total abortion ban, according to the Idaho Press. Attorneys for Idaho will seek to protect three separate restrictive abortion laws passed by the state. Ladies and gentleman, please keep our state in your prayers as a legal battle takes center stage. We wish to see this abomination of abortion brought down in Idaho, and this would be a huge step. https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/01/health/california-newsom-state-of-emergency-monkeypox/index.html Elsewhere in the US, California and Illinois declare states of emergency over monkeypox outbreak This is from CNN. The governors of California and Illinois declared states of emergency to bolster their monkeypox vaccination efforts as the virus spreads nationwide. Monday's declarations come as more than 5,800 probable or confirmed cases of monkeypox have been reported in the US. California had more than 800 cases Tuesday, while Illinois had more than 500, according to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. While the World Health Organization has declared the monkeypox outbreak a public health emergency of international concern, the Biden administration has not issued a nationwide public health emergency declaration. California is the third and largest state to issue a statewide declaration related to the disease. New York was the first to do so. California's move allows emergency medical services personnel throughout the state to administer FDA-approved monkeypox vaccines, expanding the pool of people able to inoculate residents against the virus even as a vaccine shortage persists. Illinois' declaration also will make more resources available to combat the virus, Gov. J.B. Pritzker said. The Chicago and state public health departments announced Illinois' first presumptive case June 2. Monkeypox is a poxvirus, related to smallpox, that usually causes pimple- or blister-like lesions, as well as flu-like symptoms such as fever, headaches, muscle aches, chills and respiratory symptoms, according to the CDC. And guys, great news, I found out a great way to avoid Monkey Pox, here it is… don’t be gay! Be heterosexual, and find a godly man or woman to marry, and you’re home free! Yes I realize it’s probably not that simple. But anyways… California has received more than 61,000 vaccine doses so far and distributed more than 25,000, according to the governor's news release. Los Angeles County has received its own vaccine allocation, and state officials said California will make additional allocations in the coming weeks. Last week, Sodom… oh wait I mean, San Francisco became the first major US city to declare a local health emergency on monkeypox. Now hidden towards the bottom of CNN’s article is this following paragraph: “A large number of cases in this outbreak have been in men who have sex with men, including gay and bisexual men, and public health officials are focusing their prevention efforts on this group. The virus is not unique to this community, but the nature of its close-contact spread has led to a disproportionate impact.” Following the emergency declaration in California, Equality California, a major LGBT rights nonprofit organization, applauded the governor's move, noting in a statement that the virus "continues to disproportionately affect gay, bisexual and queer men here in California and across the country." Hey speaking of gays, are you being discriminated against at your work place because you hold to the Bible? Then you need to talk to my friends at RedBalloon.work. Redballoon Not so long ago, the American dream was alive and well. Employees who worked hard were rewarded, and employers looked for people who could do the job, not for people who had the right political views. RedBalloon.work is a job site designed to get us back to what made American businesses successful: free speech, hard work, and having fun. If you are a free speech employer who wants to hire employees who focus on their work and not identity politics, then post a job on RedBalloon. If you are an employee who is being censored at work or is being forced to comply with the current zeitgeist, post your resume on RedBalloon and look for a new job. redballoon.work, the job site where free speech is still alive! www.redballoon.work Alright, enough of that happy stuff from our friends at reballoon, let’s get back to our corrupt society! https://dailycaller.com/2022/08/01/phillip-magness-facebook-recession-fack-check/ ‘Orwellian Hellscape’: Top Economist Says Facebook Fact-Checked Recession Claim To Cover For White House A top economist slammed Facebook’s “Orwellian” fact-checking system after he was given a “partly false” rating for stating the U.S. entered a recession. Dr. Phillip Magness, the research and education director at the American Institute for Economic Research, shared a screenshot of a recent post from July 24 that Facebook fact-checked. “Independent fact-checkers reviewed the photo and said it was partly false,” the fact-check read. “Facebook added a notice to the post.” Magness called the fact-check “Orwellian.” “We live in an Orwellian hell-scape,” Magness posted. “Facebook is now ‘fact-checking’ anyone who questions the White House’s word-games about the definition of a recession.” Magness furthered his assertion in a recent Wall Street Journal (WSJ) op-ed that the U.S. is, in fact, in a recession, and that the Biden administration is trying to cover it up by “playing word games.” Newly released data shows the real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 0.9% in the second quarter of 2022, marking the second consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth. While the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) uses several factors to determine whether the U.S. is in a recession, economist Julius Shiskin wrote in 1974 that two consecutive quarters of declining GDP is a good rule of thumb to define a recession, with that definition becoming somewhat of a standard. The White House has gone out of its way to deny that the economy is in a recession, with President Joe Biden declaring Thursday the state of the economy “doesn’t sound like a recession.” The White House also posted a blog that said the NBER indicated there is a “strong growth in the U.S. economy” and therefore the current state of things does not indicate a recession. Things have become so confusing that Wikipedia had to place a pause on editing the term “recession” after the definition was altered 41 times within roughly one week. Users repeatedly deleted the technical definition that described a recession as having two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. So, you guys know me… I love to end my segments with my favorite topic, sports! Well today I’m not going to talk about sports, I’m going to talk about NASCAR. Oh zinger! Now I know… I know… your body goes through a lot of stress in NASCAR, I get it… let’s just get into the story… Ty Dillon After Getting Run Over By Kyle Larson: “Luckily The Good Lord Was Keeping An Eye Out For Me, Keeping Me Safe” Ty Dillon thanked God for keeping him safe after Kyle Larson slammed into during the events of the NASCAR Cup Series race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Larson ran over Dillon going around 170 mph coming into the sharp right hand turn 1. As Larson attempted to make the corner with Dillon on his outside, he launched over the curb into Dillon’s door. Kyle Larson has issue, slams into Ty Dillon at Indy- Play 1:35-2:26 Well Thank God both drivers were okay. As I’ve said before you can find all of the articles and sources for our newsbriefs in the show notes, and you’ll be able to see the crash for yourselves, and it could have been a lot worse. This has been your CrossPolitic Daily News Brief… If you liked the show, hit that share button for me would ya? If you want to sign up for a club membership, sign up for our conference, or become a magazine subscriber, you could do all of that at fightlaughfeast.com, and if you want to reach out to me about corporate partnerships, our conference, or just a news story you want me to cover, email me at garrison@fightlaughfeast.com… For CrossPolitic news, I’m Garrison Hardie. Have a great day, and Lord bless.
An earth-shattering report about the Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF) program came out a few weeks ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). I'm diving in and breaking it down, so you can see just how powerful the PSLF Waiver and IDR Waiver could be if more people knew about it. I'm also sitting down with Taylor, a special guest from the SLP community. As a borrower herself, Taylor's case study illustrates who may or may not benefit from the PSLF or IDR waiver. In today's episode, you'll find out: Why the PSLF report is so shocking (spoiler alert: $145 billion is eligible for immediate forgiveness, but people are missing out – especially teachers) About $8 billion in student loans has been forgiven through the PSLF Waiver The Income-Driven Repayment (IDR) Waiver will see billions more being forgiven, but borrowers are still waiting for that to process before seeing any tangible results Taylor's student loan story How Taylor accumulated her loans while pursuing her undergrad degree Taylor's mix of public and private loans from grad school What to expect from the upcoming IDR Waiver Who is eligible for the PSLF Waiver What holds so many teachers and counselors back from taking advantage of the Waiver My fear about millions missing out on this opportunity How you can do your part to spread our message to more people who need it Link mentioned: Waivers for the Public Service Loan Forgiveness Program: Who Would Benefit from Takeup? Like the show? There are several ways you can help! Follow on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or Google Podcasts Leave an honest review on Apple Podcasts Follow on Facebook, Twitter, or LinkedIn Feeling helpless when it comes to your student loans? Try our free student loan calculator Check out our refinancing bonuses we negotiated Book your custom student loan plan
Negli Stati Uniti Il Pil è diminuito nel secondo trimestre del 2022 al tasso annualizzato dello 0,9% rispetto ai tre mesi precedenti, contro stime per un dato in rialzo dello 0,3%. È quanto emerge dalla prima lettura diffusa dal dipartimento del Commercio, dopo il -1,6% della lettura finale del I trimestre. L'economia americana è quindi entrata in recessione tecnica, seppur questa condizione non è stata certificata ufficialmente. Spetta infatti al National Bureau of Economic Research (Nber), che definisce "recessione" il significativo declino dell'attività diffuso in tutte l'economia per più di qualche mese. Uno stato, quello recessivo, che Biden e i democratici cercheranno di allontanare per ovvie ragioni politiche. Per capire che posizione prenderà l'inquilino della Casa Bianca bisognerà attendere il tardo pomeriggio quando parlerà anche il segretario al Tesoro Janet Yellen. Il presidente degli Stati Uniti, intanto, ha dichiarato che il rallentamento dell'economia americana "non è una sorpresa mentre la Fed agisce per far calare l'inflazione". Ne parliamo con Franco Bruni, docente economia monetaria internazionale università Bocconi Wartsila, «fiducia incrinata verso Finlandia»Ieri durante la riunione convocata al Mise, la multinazionale Wartsila ha fatto sapere che non ha in programma una marcia indietro sulla chiusura dell attività produttiva a Trieste. Il presidente di Wartsila Corporation, Håkan Agnevall, ha ribadito che «quella presa è una decisione difficile ma la volontà è di andare avanti». Ci sarebbe comunque la volontà di mantenere a Trieste il presidio del Service della ricerca e sviluppo, formazione. Sempre eri è arrivata la presa di posizione del ministro dello Sviluppo economico, Giancarlo Giorgetti che in una nota ha scritto che la conferma della decisione di Wartsila di non ritirare la procedura di chiusura delle attività produttive del sito di Trieste «incrina la fiducia che era alla base dei rapporti tra Italia e Finlandia». La società finlandese nelle scorse settimane ha deciso di fermare la produzione di motori 4 tempi. Con questa decisione sono a rischio circa 400 lavoratori. Wartsila finora ha ricevuto 11,5 milioni di contributi pubblici in Italia. Approfondiamo il tema con Cristina Casadei de Il Sole 24 Ore. L'indice Balocco: il prossimo autunno non sarà sempliceLe aziende italiane iniziano a temere l'arrivo dell'autunno e non fanno eccezione quelle che lavorano nell'alimentare. Balocco, ad esempio, sta rivedendo i budget di continuo, risparmiando su tutto il possibile, ma "l effetto sui margini del 2022 farà sembrare una passeggiata l anno del Covid". Resta inoltre grande incertezza sulla disponibilità delle materie prime. Carenza e rincari che mettono in pericolo la produzione dei prodotti tipici del Natale come panettoni e pandori. Ne parliamo con Alberto Balocco, Presidente e AD di Balocco Spa.
On today's podcast, we have to talk about the PINO aka illegitimate administration who is about to gaslight the living daylights out of you over the upcoming National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) report that's due out on Thursday and from what I am hearing, they are gona declare that we are in a recession and the Left is gona try to gaslight you to make you hide/isolate from the truth. Source: The White House is about to go full blown gaslighting over the recession. https://bongino.com/white-house-tries-to-change-widely-used-definition-of-recession-ahead-of-economic-report Incoming recession and the outcome. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2aVxRonaKU Connect with Nicky: https://allmylinks.com/kamodo Try Amazon prime for 30 day free trial https://amzn.to/35HRpOx Try Audible Plus https://amzn.to/3qHJc3V Kindle Unlimited Membership Plans https://amzn.to/3tKgSQA Try Shibari Study. https://shibaristudy.com/?referral_code=ieeHaHHDeFgF
“Recession” is the word of the hour—no matter the hour. We are all watching and listening to find out what the Fed will do next, if it will make a difference, what's happening with jobs and wages, where interest rates and prices could be going, and when our portfolios might make a turnaround.Kevin Gordon, a senior investment researcher with the Schwab Center for Financial Research, joins Mike Townsend to discuss the nature of recessions, what measures Schwab is watching, and why they matter when assessing where we stand. Kevin also shares insights on how the economic downturn is impacting the U.S. housing market, the bottom lines of corporations, and the financial system overall. He also offers some thoughts about how nervous investors can remain grounded during this period of economic and market uncertainty.Mike also gives an update on the momentum that is building with Senate Democrats and the White House as they try to pass their long-stalled economic package, along with new developments in the tax plan they are considering to offset some of their spending priorities. He also reports on the Senate's continuing progress on retirement savings legislation.WashingtonWise is an original podcast for investors from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit Schwab.com/WashingtonWise.If you enjoy the show, please leave a ★★★★★ rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important DisclosuresInformation on this site is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered individualized recommendations or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic and political conditions.Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.Diversification, asset allocation, and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Rebalancing may cause investors to incur transaction costs and, when a nonretirement account is rebalanced, taxable events may be created that may affect your tax liability.This information does not constitute and is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax, legal, or investment planning advice. Where specific advice is necessary or appropriate, Schwab recommends consultation with a qualified tax advisor, CPA, financial planner, or investment manager.The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is a private, nonpartisan organization that facilitates cutting-edge investigation and analysis of major economic issues.0722-2P5C
War is an unrelenting undercurrent of human civilization and has always been so. Today, economist and political scientist Chris Blattman, author of Why We Fight, offers an explanation as to the psychological and strategic forces that propel nations to opt for such ruinous violence. Bio: Chris Blattman is an economist and political scientist who uses field work and statistics to study poverty, political engagement, the causes and consequences of violence, and policy in developing countries. He is a professor in the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago. Background: Most of my current research is with armed groups, gangs, organized crime, and the people who join violent organizations. This work involves a blend of qualitative interviews, large-scale surveys, statistical analysis, and field experiments. I also want to bring big ideas and research to a general audience, which is why I wrote Why We Fight: The Roots of War and the Paths to Peace. I co-lead the Crime & Violence Initiative for MIT's Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL) as well as the Peace and Recovery Program for the research NGO Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA). I'm also a Research Affiliate at UChicago's Crime and Inclusive Economy Labs. Finally, I'm a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Website/Book - https://chrisblattman.com/why-we-fight/ Artwork by Phillip Thor - https://linktr.ee/Philipthor_art To watch the visuals with the trailer go to https://www.podcasttheway.com/trailers/ The Way Podcast - www.PodcastTheWay.com - Follow at Twitter / Instagram - @podcasttheway (Subscribe/Follow on streaming platforms and social media!) Thank you Don Grant for the Intro/Outro. Check out his podcast - https://threeinterestingthings.captivate.fm Intro guitar copied from Aiden Ayers at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7UiB9FMOP5s *The views demonstrated in this show are strictly those of The Way Podcast/Radio Show*
On the 20th episode of Immigration Today! Angeline Chen welcomes Dr. Tara Watson. Tara Watson is an economist who focuses on U.S. social policy, with interests in the safety net, health, and immigration. She is a Professor of Economics at Williams College since 2004, a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), and a Co-Editor of the Journal of Human Resources. In 2015-2016, Watson served as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Microeconomic Analysis in the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Economic Policy. She was previously a Robert Wood Johnson Scholar in Health Policy Research at the University of Michigan, a visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, and a Research Associate at the Princeton Center for Research on Child Wellbeing. Dr. Watson earned her Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University in 2003. Her 2021 book, “The Border Within: The Economics of Immigration in an Age of Fear,” (University of Chicago, 2022) co-authored by journalist Kalee Thompson, provides a compelling analysis of the costs and impacts of immigration and immigration policy on every aspect of American life, from the labor force to social welfare programs to tax revenue. In this interview, Dr. Watson discusses her background as a professor, and explains her passion for researching and writing about immigration. She was approached by the University of Chicago Press in 2014 and was asked if she would be willing to write a book, so she embarked in a years-long journey to do so. One of the most important goals here is to bring more statistical and evidence driven information to the narratives of migration. Tara realized that when an audience learns about immigration its entirely focused on the humanitarian and ethical point of view which can be easy to dismiss. When economists write about immigration, they often just focus on statistics which aren't very compelling, so marrying the humanitarian and statistical point of view seemed ideal. Economist Tara Watson and Journalist Kalee Thompson pair rigorous analysis with deeply personal stories from immigrants and their families to assess immigration's effects on every aspect of American life. In this episode, Tara gives us a brief insight into her book as she discusses stereotypes about “immigrants taking American jobs” and “being criminals” and what the data really says about this. You can buy this book on Amazon and the University of Chicago website. You can also follow Dr. Watson on her Twitter account and LinkedIn to stay up to date with her findings. Immigration Today! is always releasing new content. Please subscribe to our immigration newsletter to stay up to date with any new episodes.DISCLAIMER – No information contained in this Podcast or on this Website shall constitute financial, investment, legal and/or other professional advice and that no professional relationship of any kind is created between you and podcast host, the guests or Clark Hill PLC. You are urged to speak with your financial, investment, or legal advisors before making any investment or legal decisions.
A reader posed a relevant question that is on the minds of the American people. She asked, “Are we about to have a recession?” She could not have asked a more timely question. It is extremely relevant in view of the 1.4 percent decline in GDP in the first quarter. We should begin by defining a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official arbiter of recessions and expansions, defines a recession as a “significant decline in economic activity” that is widespread and has a duration of several months. This definition includes falling GDP but also involves declining...Article Link
Inflation is at the center of almost every economic discussion these days, whether among individual investors, fund managers, or elected officials. It goes beyond just high prices on everyday goods and has the potential for long-term effects on the economy. Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab's chief investment strategist, joins Mike to discuss what we can expect as the Fed gets aggressive raising interest rates and if its efforts can bring inflation down without pushing the economy into recession. They also address the impact higher interest rates could have on the national debt and whether they will change the way policymakers think about accumulating debt. Liz Ann then shares her insights on how inflation may affect the markets, describes key trends she is watching, and offers thoughts for investors who are wrestling with current conditions.Mike also lays out the challenges Democrats face to make progress on key policy priorities before all attention turns to the midterm elections. Their tasks include another round of aid for Ukraine, an additional $10 billion of COVID relief, and a slimmed-down economic package that is likely to focus on helping families deal with inflation. He also looks at the pending confirmations of Fed nominees. WashingtonWise Investor is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit Schwab.com/WashingtonWise.If you enjoy the show, please leave a ★★★★★ rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important Disclosures:The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.This information does not constitute and is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax, legal, or investment planning advice. Where specific advice is necessary or appropriate, Schwab recommends consultation with a qualified tax advisor, CPA, financial planner, or investment manager.Diversification, asset allocation, and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Rebalancing may cause investors to incur transaction costs and, when a nonretirement account is rebalanced, taxable events may be created that may affect your tax liability.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes please see www.schwab.com/indexdefinitions.Soft landings are defined as periods when the economy stops growing but doesn't enter recession.The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is a private, nonpartisan organization that facilitates cutting-edge investigation and analysis of major economic issues.0422-2LVG
The Economic Case For Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks, COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: A SIR Model, Demand Shocks and Capital Flows, Risk-Taking and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from Loans to SMEs and Large Firms, and COVID-19 and SME Failures Prof. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan is Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland. She is also a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and a Research Fellow at the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). Her current research focuses on real and financial linkages in the global economy and the implications of such linkages on economic fluctuations and growth. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/scientificsense/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/scientificsense/support
On Spelman College Week: Do the media impact the startup economy? Angelino Viceisza, associate professor in the department of economics, looks into the shark tank to find out. Dr. Angelino Viceisza is an associate professor of economics at Spelman College, a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), and a board member […]
Host Joe Selvaggi talks with Stanford University Economics Professor Joshua Rauh about his research on the reaction of Californians to a tax increase, from his report, "The Behavioral Response to State Income Taxation of High Earners, Evidence from California." Prof. Rauh shares how his research offers tax policy makers insight into the likely effects of similar increases in their own states, including here in Massachusetts. Guest: Joshua Rauh, originally from Newton, MA., is a Professor of Finance at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, and a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Professor Rauh's research on state and local pension systems in the United States has received national media coverage in outlets such as the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, the Financial Times, and The Economist. He is an Associate Editor of the Journal of Finance and an editor of the Journal of Pension Economics and Finance and the Review of Corporate Finance Studies. He holds a BA degree in economics, magna cum laude with distinction, from Yale University and a PhD in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
The word recession gets thrown around in the news all the time, but how do we know if we are really in a recession or not? The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is who can determine whether we are in a recession. The formal label “Recession” becomes official well after the fact. Normally a recession is not declared until twelve months after it occurs. A recession typically happens every four or five years. So, what should you do as an investor to prepare for a recession? As an investor during a recession, you want to run for the hills! It can be excruciating to watch your stocks go down for twelve months straight. However, you can’t actually run for the hills. Instead, look at the sectors you are invested in because some do better than others during a recession. In other words, focus on turning lemons into lemonade.
Dalton Conley is the Henry Putnam University Professor in Sociology and a faculty affiliate at the Office of Population Research and the Center for Health and Wellbeing. He is also a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), and in a pro bono capacity he serves as Dean of Health Sciences for the University of the People, a tuition-free, accredited, online college committed to expanding access to higher education. Conley’s scholarship has primarily dealt with the intergenerational transmission of socioeconomic and health status from parents to children.He earned a M.P.A. in Public Policy and a Ph.D. in Sociology from Columbia University, and a Ph.D. in Biology from NYU.In this conversation, we discuss his book The Genome Factor: What the Social Genomics Revolution Reveals about Ourselves, Our History, and the Future. We dive deep into the nature vs. nurture debate, genetics and the role they play in the way we develop as human beings, genetic diversity, the “Gay” Gene, sperm banks and the use of genetic information, Tinder and 23 and Me, and more.---Websites: https://sociology.princeton.edu/people/dalton-conley https://scholar.princeton.edu/dconleyBook: The Genome Factor: What the Social Genomics Revolution Reveals about Ourselves, Our History, and the Future---HIGHLIGHTS(2:07) The future of Sociology. (5:00) The Genome Factor: What the Social Genomics Revolution Reveals about Ourselves, Our History, and the Future. (5:55) The nurture vs. nature debate.(13:35) The human factor, and Viktor Frankl - the choices in life, are they determined by our biology, our environment, or both?(15:50) What matters more, the environment or biology when determining one’s path in life?(18:52) The gene/environment interaction.(23:01) Does genetics determine one’s life? Is there free will?(25:00) The “Gay” Gene.(28:25) Why does the moral conversation around some issues like IQ heritability tends to be stigmatized?(29:20) Can we maximize the gene activation - good gene activation - for all the population in a single environment - i.e. USA?(32:00) Are some people predisposed to be tobacco addicts? Can genes help us to understand why some people smoke more than others? What are the policy implications of this?(34:10) Orchids vs. Dandelions and their relationship to Human diversity.(41:45) Evolutionary Pressures. (45:15) Do genes affect the economic development of a given region?(47:42) Assortative Mating - Will Tinder recommend us potential mates taking into account the human genome? Will Dating Apps associate with Biotechnology companies?(52:20) Sperm banks and the potential utility of genetic information.---Thanks for tuning in for this edition of Through Conversations Podcast!If you find this conversation interesting, subscribe to the podcast at any podcast feed you use. Also, dive deep into conversation with your loved ones by sharing this episode with them. You can use the review feature on Apple Podcasts to share with me your thoughts on the show, propose topics or guests you'd love to listen to, and help me improve the show.I am grateful for your continuous support.---Keep the conversation going:Instagram:@thruconvpodcastTwitter: @ThruConvPodcastWebsite: throughconversations.com
Politiker machen wieder Panik und rufen die 2. Coronawelle aus, wie Österreichs Kanzler Kurz oder Bayerns Ministerpräsident Söder. Aber wo stehen wir wirklich? Der Facharzt für Mikrobiologie, Virologie, Infektionsepidemiologie und Tropenmedizin, Prof. DDr. Martin Haditsch ist überzeugt: Lockdown und Maskenpflicht sind Unsinn und beruft sich u.a. auf eine Metastudie des renommierten National Bureau of Economic Research NBER. Haditsch erläutert ausführlich und differenziert, warum seiner Meinung nach die Panikmache falsch und unseriös ist, dass öffentliche Stellen Fakten falsch interpretierten und warum das Horrorbeispiel Italien in keinster Weise vergleichbar mit den Verhältnissen in Deutschland und Österreich sei. Ein Gespräch über Masken, PCR-Tests, traumatisierte Kinder.
Did fiscal austerity pave the way for the rise of the Nazis? Christopher Meissner is Professor of Economics at the University of California, Davis. His research focuses on the economic history of the international economy particularly between 1870 and 1913. He is also a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the Development of the American Economy (DAE) program. Previous to joining the faculty at Davis, Meissner was at the Faculty of Economics at Cambridge University. In Cambridge he was the Director of Studies in Economics and a Fellow of King's College. He has held Visiting Scholar positions at Harvard, INSEAD, International Monetary Fund, the Paris School of Economics, University of Barcelona, and the University of Southern Denmark. He was also a Houblon Norman fellow at the Bank of England and the Hans Christian Andersen Professor at the University of Southern Denmark in 2015. Meissner earned his PhD in Economics from Berkeley in 2001 and his AB in Economics from Washington University in 1996. WE ARE STARTING A BOOK CLUB! We are very excited to announce that the book club will be hosted by Fiori Sara Berhane. We will (Zoom) meet on October 20th at 7 pm EST and will be reading Sinews of War and Trade by Laleh Khalili. Sign Up Here A Correction Podcast Episodes RSS
Markets & COVID Cases Gain Across America as NYC Opens. Recession announced – Financial News for Monday June 8, 2020 Major indexes climbed Monday, carrying on last week's rally. The Dow Jones increased by 1.70%, the NASDAQ by 1.13%, and the S&P 500 by 1.20%. CNBC's Jim Cramer, the host of Mad Money, spoke Monday about the positive turn of the economy. He believes that the stock market is climbing too quickly as compared to the slower recovery of the economy. He said: “Where are the sellers? It's almost as if people decided Covid is over. It's a ‘V-shaped' rally, and you better get on board. The Friday rally, as sweet as it was off the employment number, has not brought out any sellers. I often think that there has to be sellers at a certain level.” The airline, travel and leisure industries continued to soar on Monday, continuing last week's streak. American Airlines rose by 6% today, which is adding to its 77% increase last week. The Federal Reserve is set to release an updated policy statement on Wednesday. They will also be showcasing its economic projections, the first since December. Interest rates are not expected to be cut, as they are already in the 0%-0.25% range. It is likely that interest rates will remain near zero for the next two years, in order to stimulate the economy back to normal levels. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) released information today showing that domestic economic activity peaked in February. This means that the expansion that started in June 2009 (at the end of the last recession) lasted until February 2020. This is the longest expansion period on record. The NBER spoke about the situation: “[…] The committee recognizes that the pandemic and the public health response have resulted in a downturn with different characteristics and dynamics than prior recessions. Nonetheless, it concluded that the unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its broad reach across the entire economy, warrants the designation of this episode as a recession, even if it turns out to be briefer than earlier contractions.” READ MORE: https://callputstrike.com/2020/06/08/markets-covid-cases-gain-across-america-as-nyc-opens-financial-news-for-monday-june-8-2020/ Beyond Pandemics & Protests: The Biggest Challenges for Financial Advisors The role of a financial advisor means many different things. Advisors take on the responsibility of guiding their clients through building an asset portfolio, helping them improve their personal financial situation, and being available as a lifeline in the event that things are crashing down in their lives. Advisors are often seen as a fix-all for every problem that clients can think of, especially in times of uncertainty like Americans are experiencing during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the ongoing Black Lives Matter protests. This is why great financial advisors can come at a cost. Here are some of the biggest challenges facing the modern-day financial advisor. READ MORE: https://callputstrike.com/2020/06/08/beyond-pandemics-protests-the-biggest-challenges-for-financial-advisors/ --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/callputstrike/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/callputstrike/support
Welcome to Finance and Fury. Can public infrastructure spending help to boost a depressed economy? In this episode we look at the theory of infrastructure spending on public goods, such as roads and bridges, versus the practical reality of this type of fiscal policy. At the moment – there are lots of Proposals for Infrastructure to boost economy – USA, Aus, EU – beyond other stimulus measures – this is one that billions of dollars can be pledged to First- what infrastructure governments spend funds on – Public infrastructure – for instance - spending on roads, bridges, train lines, sewerage systems - other such projects which are considered a public good – i.e. usable for all – This type of spending is one of the most advertised tools of anti-recessionary fiscal policy Why? When the economy struggles, politicians and public economists call for greater infrastructure spending as a form of stimulus This can be politically expedient as well - especially when the spending takes place in the politician’s state. However – how well does it provide stimulus to the economy? The theory of infrastructure stimulus – Government stimulus spending - infrastructure or other Gov consumption on goods and services – part of the Keynesian assumption where an underproductive economy can be spurred back to full output by using new public expenditures – we have gone through this theory in previous FF episodes – but the aim is to boost aggregate demand – GDP In relation to infrastructure – the theory is that involuntarily unemployed persons can be given public infrastructure jobs and receive an income This then feeds back into the economy with consumption spending – meant to promote more GDP growth John Maynard Keynes theorised that public infrastructure deficit spending could produce a multiplier effect on economic growth Especially when real interest rates are low – can borrow – create jobs while the project is under way and those incomes produce more GDP in economic spending Australian GDP composition - household consumption: 56.9%, investment: 24.1%, net exports 0.5%, government consumption: 18.5% Of gov consumption – around 4.4% is infrastructure spending – pretty high compared to a lot of other nations – China 8.3%, India 5.6%, Saudi Arabia – 5.1%, South Africa – 4.7%, 5th on the list - Australia – 4.4% Basic assumptions on this theory - Keynesian stimulus spending assumes essentially zero opportunity costs if the deficit spending occurs during a period of higher-than-normal unemployment – Those who are unemployed could not be employed anywhere else – for higher incomes – What this looks like in practice – Some assumptions I have seen – Economic policy institute - The “bang for the buck” is estimated by the one-year dollar change in gross domestic product (GDP) for a given dollar increase in spending. Multiplier indicates how much total output (GDP) changes in response to a $1 increase in deficit resulting from the fiscal policy change Outcome from increased infrastructure spending - $1.57 – could find a fair amount of papers theorising the benefits- One problem with theory of infrastructure spending - it ignores so-called "Cantillon effects" the relative change in different prices as the result of new money entering the economy new spending increases prices and demand in some areas faster and more deeply than in other areas - it has the side effect of misdirecting production away from areas where private citizens might voluntarily choose to dedicate their money – creating a misallocation of pricing Example – Massive inflows of funds into infrastructure spending pushes up the cost of infrastructure up – anyone who has had a damaged driveway gutter and requires the local council to replace this knows what I am talking about – minimum costs of $1,500 in most cases, just for a wheelbarrow of concrete Essentially, the economy trades off a short-term reduction in unemployment for a long-term misallocation resources and employment potentials that produces higher unemployment long term – as once the project is over those jobs are gone Also – employment only benefits one sector of the economy – those in public works/construction – at this stage of where the economy is at – this is not where the unemployment issues have materialised Another problem – it ignores opportunity costs – these may be very large opportunity costs and implementation costs associated with the high levels that are required for infrastructure spending I talked about the issue with not having any feedback loops in deacision making - governments do not produce anything with a calculable market value – or do they receive any feedback – it is not like their revenues, or the taxes we pay can be withheld by us if we don’t think they are doing a good job or agree with what they are spending it on – Their spending decisions are independent of consumer valuations and therefore blind to any real economic feedback There – no feedback on if infrastructure spending is the best use of resources, let alone any specific project for a road, bridge or highway – in addition, no recourse for wasted spending – i.e. the $1bn wasted on the east west link tunnel that never got built in Melbourne Good infrastructure can enhance the productive potential of the economy, but the political decision-making process often leads to bad decisions on spending, whether that is for electoral reasons or inefficiencies driven by a lack of market discipline – or having any recourse or feedback loops in helping make decisions Dig a hole and fill a hole policies can be implemented – to help boost employment and spend a budget – but it won’t provide any infrastructure benefit to our lives Based around the cantillion effect and having no opportunity costs in decision making – governments can impedes the private-sector from delivering infrastructure. If infrastructure projects are financed through taxes - the private economy shrinks by at least a corresponding amount long term If they are financed through deficit spending and the issuance of government bonds, then current capital markets experience crowding-out effects and other financial assets become more or less expensive than they otherwise should be – long term - when those government bonds are paid back through higher taxes or higher inflation (to eat away the real value of the debt) - the private economy loses again The estimate of the 1.57 multiplier doesn’t take into account these opportunity costs Practical Reality Economists do have a hard time to produce empirical results of the benefits – they can in theory and produce models about assumptions – but even models that predict things like inflation show that they are off – difficult to find solid, demonstrable evidence about how effective changes in infrastructure spending have been The IMF produced a working paper in 2014 - found little evidence that global infrastructure projects produced economic gains - when projects received debt funding for growth – no change to trends for growths Practical Challenges – paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in 2013 called - "Roads to Prosperity or Bridges to Nowhere? Theory and Evidence on the Impact of Public Infrastructure Investment." Good title – but within it the economists identified at a few major challenges to the standard theory of increasing infrastructure spending for GDP growth the endogeneity of public infrastructure spending to economic conditions - endogeneity broadly refers to situations in which an explanatory variable is correlated with the error term or your probability assumption – simple English - there are too many variable to accurately predict what is having an effect on GDP – was is Gov spending or is it just good economic conditions? the decentralized nature of implementation – there are too many departments and no communication between them – delays and costing become an issue – lags between approved spending decisions and actual project completion – money may not be there by the time the works are ready to be completed - delivery of infrastructure generally tends to be slower and more costly due to extensive government regulations, such as land use planning laws, environmental commitments, direct government monopoly decisions and restrictions on transport infrastructure funded through charging the user – such as tolls as I quickly went through earlier - government generally is not excellent at managing money or roads - Federal spending for highways is as much a political tool as an economic one – In addition - projects also tend to lose their "shovel-ready" status because of lengthy and expensive environmental and permitting reviews Approvals for public infrastructure projects can take between five and 10 years to be implemented, all the while costing taxpayers as tedious approval processes play out – then they have to buy up land and properties that lie on them – then regulations change and new approvals need to be applied for – Example - Moved to Brisbane in 2000 with my parents – were looking around and Kenmore bypass was planned – since the 1960s – have the land and in 2009 bought up the final blocks – but still have no money What good infrastructure like loads can help with – reduced connection and travel times – does this happen? A few anecdotal examples from my own life – One – spent $34m adding in a round about that added 20mins to travel Another was $60m spent adding an additional inlet to the ICB – actually made traffic congestion worse – an extra 15 mins as down the line the bottle neck still exists Despite constant policy proposals - there is little practical evidence that public infrastructure projects are a net positive to the economy, or that they even boost net employment figures - There appears to be a disconnect between the theory – the political rhetoric and economic reality – how big? Who knows The macroeconomic models are all assumption based – and only deal with a handful of variables compared to what can actually affect the economy – plus it assumes individuals behaviours are fixed – that we aren’t adaptive So whilst in theory it does sound good – the actual output is unknow and the funds may be better spent elsewhere Next week – look at Past examples of infrastructure and leading to crisis. Thanks for listening. Resources: https://resources.saylor.org/wwwresources/archived/site/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/HIST312-10.1.2-Panic-of-1893.pdf https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/banking_panics_of_the_gilded_age https://www.statista.com/statistics/566787/average-yearly-expenditure-on-economic-infrastructure-as-percent-of-gdp-worldwide-by-country/ https://www.epi.org/publication/the-potential-macroeconomic-benefits-from-increasing-infrastructure-investment/ https://www.nber.org/papers/w18042.pdf
Prof. Amanda Starc, Associate Professor of Strategy at the #Kellogg School of Management and a Faculty Research Fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research (#NBER) inaugurates the first ever IIMA-CMHS Virtual Healthcare Research Seminar Series 2020-21 with a seminar on her paper on “Mortality Effects and Choice Across Private Health Insurance Plans”. Session moderated by #IIMA #ICICIBank Chair, Chairperson of #CMHSIIMA, Prof. Chirantan Chatterjee.
Efraim Benmelech is Professor in Financial Economics and Head of the Guthrie Center for Real Estate Research at the Kellogg School of Management and affiliated with the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). In this financial panel, he will talk about new trends on lending in the global financial markets. He will also present new research on changes in the use of collateral for corporate loans and the title of his speech is: Secured Debt - the Good, the Bad and the Ugly.
David Blanchflower, Professor of Economics at Dartmouth College and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), joins host Peter Cappelli and guest host Connor Joyce to discuss his research featured in the NBR Paper "Children, Unhappiness, and Family Finances: Evidence from One Million Europeans" on in the Workplace. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
According to Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission (EACC) and National Treasury reports in 2016, it was estimated that a third of Kenya’s national budget was lost through corrupt dealings annually. That would mean that in 2018/19, we can reasonably expect to lose KES 1 trillion, if not more, to corruption. Much of this money ends up in offshore accounts in countries that are tax havens. As at 2007, economists at the American research firm National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) estimated that about 70% of Kenya’s GDP (KES 1.83 trillion in 2007) was stashed abroad, while the think-tank Global Financial Integrity (GFI) estimated in an October 2018 report that Kenya loses about 8% of government revenues annually (above USD 907 million, or KES 78.41 billion, based on the historical exchange rate) to trade misinvoicing by multinationals. We’re joined by Will Fitzgibbon, an investigative journalist at the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ), who has worked on the Panama Papers, Paradise Papers and Swiss Leaks, to talk about where our stolen money goes. Press play! Resources The Panama Papers - Exposing the Rogue Offshore Finance Industry The Panama Papers - Power Players Paradise Papers - Secrets of the Global Elite Swiss Leaks - Murky Cash Sheltered By Bank Secrecy Swiss Leaks - Kenya Country Profile Offshore Leaks Database: Kenya What are the 'Paradise Papers' and why should you care? Paradise papers: a special investigation HSBC files Kenya: Potential Revenue Losses Associated with Trade Misinvoicing Wealthy Kenyans hiding Sh5trn in foreign banks Concern as wealthy Kenyans stash their riches in tax havens Leaks reveal Kenyan judge a director of multiple offshore companies More Kenyans on Panama Papers list What leaked Paradise Papers mean for Kenya Inside the havens, where super rich people hide their billions Third of Kenyan budget lost to corruption: anti-graft chief Understanding the economic cost of corruption in Kenya Experts: Theft, waste likely to silence calls for austerity Episode 54: The Cost of Corruption Episode 62: Tax Justice in Kenya Image Credit: ICIJ
La Fundación Rafael del Pino y el Círculo de Empresarios organizó el 6 de septiembre de 2018, la Conferencia Magistral de Jesús Fernández Villaverde “Consecuencias de las políticas comercial y exterior de la Administración Trump”. Jesús Fernández Villaverde es Catedrático de Economía en la Universidad de Pensilvania desde 2007 y miembro del Nacional Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), del “grupo de los cien” y del consejo editorial de relevantes publicaciones nacionales e internacionales. Es Licenciado en Derecho y Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales por ICADE y Doctor en Economía por la Universidad de Minnesota. RESUMEN El 6 de septiembre de 2018 la Fundación Rafael del Pino y el Círculo de Empresarios organizaron la conferencia de Jesús Fernández Villaverde, catedrático de Economía de la Universidad de Pensilvania, titulada “Consecuencias de la política comercial y exterior de la Administración Trump”. Según Fernández Villaverde, esta política ha supuesto una revolución en las relaciones internacionales y comerciales de Estados Unidos con el resto del mundo. Una revolución que es tan profunda como las cuatro anteriores que experimentó esta política estadounidense: 1914, tras el inició de la Primera Guerra Mundial; 1941, a partir de la entrada de Estados Unidos en la Segunda Guerra Mundial: 1989, como consecuencia de la caída del Muro de Berlín y el final de la Guerra Fría, y 2001, después de los atentados del 11 de septiembre. La revolución actual supone una ruptura con las estructuras básicas de relaciones internacionales y comerciales que Estados Unidos había construido desde 1944 en la Conferencia de Bretton Woods. Una revolución que viene explicada por factores ideológicos, factores coyunturales y factores estructurales. En el ámbito ideológico, vuelven los fantasmas del pasado de Estados Unidos y Steve Bannon, que fue estratega jefe de la Casa Blanca durante los siete primeros meses de la presidencia de Donald Trump, es una de las personas que más ha influido en su retorno. La idea central del pensamiento de Bannon consiste en que América se construyó gracias al sistema americano de protección a la industria y al control del sistema financiero para ayudarla. Ese sistema se basa en las ideas del estadista decimonónico estadounidense Henry Clay, que se asentaban en tres pilares: un arancel protector (25%) de la industria americana, el control del sistema financiero para que financie a la industria estadounidense y un gran plan de inversión en infraestructuras. Estos son, también, los pilares fundamentales del programa de Trump. En el caso concreto de los aranceles, estos pasaron a ser muy bajos a partir de Bretton Woods. La Administración Trump está muy descontenta con esto. El entramado ideológico de Clay se completa con otras dos ideas de naturaleza política: unas fuerzas armadas muy bien preparadas y el nacionalismo interior. Esto también es lo que quiere hacer Donald Trump. En el ámbito político también predominan las ideas de James Polk, presidente de Estados Unidos entre 1845 y 1849. Sus elementos esenciales son una fuerte desconfianza hacia las élites de la costa este, una base electoral de clase trabajadora, blanca y rural y una política exterior muy agresiva. Una política nuevamente muy similar a la de la Administración Trump cuyas consecuencias fueron la guerra Estados Unidos-México. Como consecuencia de la derrota que sufrieron, los mexicanos tuvieron que ceder a los estadounidenses la mitad de su territorio, que incluía los estados de California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Nuevo México, Wyoming y Texas. Además, se agravaron las tensiones territoriales entre EEUU y sus vecinos. Lo que está haciendo Trump, en consecuencia, ya ha sucedido antes. Trump lo utiliza para construir su política exterior y comercial. Por lo que se refiere a los factores coyunturales, lo primero que hay que tener en cuenta es que Trump gana la nominación debido a los problemas internos del Partido Republicano: el hastío con la saga Bush, el hecho de que Jeb Bush no quería presentarse, Marco Rubio no estaba preparado, … En segundo término, hay que tener en cuenta que, en Estados Unidos, raramente un partido gana tres elecciones presidenciales seguidas. El único caso que se dio en el siglo XX fue la victoria de Bush padre después de los ocho años de presidencia de Ronald Reagan. La economía, además, había crecido poco en los años anteriores. Todo ello jugaba a favor de la victoria de Trump. De hecho, el modelo de predicción de Ray Fair, de la Universidad de Yale, decía que un candidato republicano, sin poner nombres, hubiera obtenido el 56% de los votos, lo que indica que el terreno estaba abonado para una victoria republicana. A pesar de ello, Trump solo obtuvo el 49% de los sufragios. Por último, Hillary Clinton era una candidata horrorosa, tanto en términos estratégicos como tácticos, y cometió errores importantes que le costaron la victoria. En cuanto a los factores estructurales, destacan en especial cuatro: el cambio demográfico, el auge de China, la revolución en el mercado energético y las heridas de la crisis financiera. El cambio demográfico supone que cada vez habrá menos estadounidenses blancos y más de otras razas, en especial latinoamericanos y asiáticos. Eso implica que Europa les importará cada vez menos. A su vez, la llegada de China al comercio internacional es mucho más grande de lo que nadie se imaginó. En tan solo una generación ha pasado de aportar el 5% del valor añadido bruto industrial del mundo a suponer el 25%. China, además, representa el 20% de las exportaciones mundiales y tiene un gran superávit corriente. Pues bien, Trump ganó las elecciones en los territorios más afectados negativamente por China. Los grandes perdedores son personas blancas no hispanas, con un nivel de formación de educación secundaria o menor, mayores de 50 años, cuyo nivel de vida es el 150% del nivel de pobreza. Eso ha tenido consecuencias electorales. En el ámbito energético, el fracking supone toda una revolución, porque ha convertido a Estados Unidos en el primer país por reservas de petróleo y gas del mundo. Esto ha provocado que pase de ser importador a exportador de productos energéticos. A su vez, la crisis financiera ha provocado un descontento generalizado con el sistema financiero. Además, hay que tener en cuenta que las crisis financieras son muy diferentes de las crisis normales en sus efectos políticos y económicos. En este caso, ha dado lugar, entre otras cosas, a la aparición del populismo y para los populistas es muy fácil convertir en enemigo al sistema de comercio internacional. En este ciclo electoral, la crisis financiera ha sido especialmente cruenta por la concentración de efectos. Con todo lo anterior, se han construido tres teorías sobre la estrategia de Trump. La primera de ellas dice que su intención es reconstruir un sistema internacional diferente al liberal. La segunda dice que todo consiste en luchar duro para obtener más beneficios. La tercera se resume en hacer cosas a medida que se avanza. Como consecuencia de ello, las instituciones del sistema internacional, como el FMI, el Banco Mundial o la Organización Mundial del Comercio, van a quedar muy afectadas porque EEUU ha pasado de ser un agente cooperador a no cooperador. Esto es peligroso cuando llegue una crisis. Además, el sistema de seguridad colectiva queda tocado, mientras se pierde la confianza en Estados Unidos. A partir de ahí, no sabemos cómo de grande va a ser esta guerra comercial. En el peor caso los aranceles subirán del 5% al 30% o al 60%. El PIB mundial bajaría un 2% o 3%, pero el bienestar caería mucho más. Además, va a haber un coste en términos de tasa de crecimiento de unas décimas al año, con efectos tremendos a largo plazo. Los riesgos de esta situación para Europa se encuentran en los ámbitos de la seguridad y la energía. En el caso energético, se debe a que Estados Unidos ya no tendrá interés en esforzarse por mantener abiertas las rutas comerciales del petróleo. En relación con ello, Oriente Medio perdería importancia para Estados Unidos. China podría tener problemas en los mercados internacionales y podría seguir con la escalada militar.
La Fundación Rafael del Pino y el Círculo de Empresarios organizó el 6 de septiembre de 2018, la Conferencia Magistral de Jesús Fernández Villaverde “Consecuencias de las políticas comercial y exterior de la Administración Trump”. Jesús Fernández Villaverde es Catedrático de Economía en la Universidad de Pensilvania desde 2007 y miembro del Nacional Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), del “grupo de los cien” y del consejo editorial de relevantes publicaciones nacionales e internacionales. Es Licenciado en Derecho y Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales por ICADE y Doctor en Economía por la Universidad de Minnesota. RESUMEN El 6 de septiembre de 2018 la Fundación Rafael del Pino y el Círculo de Empresarios organizaron la conferencia de Jesús Fernández Villaverde, catedrático de Economía de la Universidad de Pensilvania, titulada “Consecuencias de la política comercial y exterior de la Administración Trump”. Según Fernández Villaverde, esta política ha supuesto una revolución en las relaciones internacionales y comerciales de Estados Unidos con el resto del mundo. Una revolución que es tan profunda como las cuatro anteriores que experimentó esta política estadounidense: 1914, tras el inició de la Primera Guerra Mundial; 1941, a partir de la entrada de Estados Unidos en la Segunda Guerra Mundial: 1989, como consecuencia de la caída del Muro de Berlín y el final de la Guerra Fría, y 2001, después de los atentados del 11 de septiembre. La revolución actual supone una ruptura con las estructuras básicas de relaciones internacionales y comerciales que Estados Unidos había construido desde 1944 en la Conferencia de Bretton Woods. Una revolución que viene explicada por factores ideológicos, factores coyunturales y factores estructurales. En el ámbito ideológico, vuelven los fantasmas del pasado de Estados Unidos y Steve Bannon, que fue estratega jefe de la Casa Blanca durante los siete primeros meses de la presidencia de Donald Trump, es una de las personas que más ha influido en su retorno. La idea central del pensamiento de Bannon consiste en que América se construyó gracias al sistema americano de protección a la industria y al control del sistema financiero para ayudarla. Ese sistema se basa en las ideas del estadista decimonónico estadounidense Henry Clay, que se asentaban en tres pilares: un arancel protector (25%) de la industria americana, el control del sistema financiero para que financie a la industria estadounidense y un gran plan de inversión en infraestructuras. Estos son, también, los pilares fundamentales del programa de Trump. En el caso concreto de los aranceles, estos pasaron a ser muy bajos a partir de Bretton Woods. La Administración Trump está muy descontenta con esto. El entramado ideológico de Clay se completa con otras dos ideas de naturaleza política: unas fuerzas armadas muy bien preparadas y el nacionalismo interior. Esto también es lo que quiere hacer Donald Trump. En el ámbito político también predominan las ideas de James Polk, presidente de Estados Unidos entre 1845 y 1849. Sus elementos esenciales son una fuerte desconfianza hacia las élites de la costa este, una base electoral de clase trabajadora, blanca y rural y una política exterior muy agresiva. Una política nuevamente muy similar a la de la Administración Trump cuyas consecuencias fueron la guerra Estados Unidos-México. Como consecuencia de la derrota que sufrieron, los mexicanos tuvieron que ceder a los estadounidenses la mitad de su territorio, que incluía los estados de California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Nuevo México, Wyoming y Texas. Además, se agravaron las tensiones territoriales entre EEUU y sus vecinos. Lo que está haciendo Trump, en consecuencia, ya ha sucedido antes. Trump lo utiliza para construir su política exterior y comercial. Por lo que se refiere a los factores coyunturales, lo primero que hay que tener en cuenta es que Trump gana la nominación debido a los problemas internos del Partido Republicano: el hastío con la saga Bush, el hecho de que Jeb Bush no quería presentarse, Marco Rubio no estaba preparado, … En segundo término, hay que tener en cuenta que, en Estados Unidos, raramente un partido gana tres elecciones presidenciales seguidas. El único caso que se dio en el siglo XX fue la victoria de Bush padre después de los ocho años de presidencia de Ronald Reagan. La economía, además, había crecido poco en los años anteriores. Todo ello jugaba a favor de la victoria de Trump. De hecho, el modelo de predicción de Ray Fair, de la Universidad de Yale, decía que un candidato republicano, sin poner nombres, hubiera obtenido el 56% de los votos, lo que indica que el terreno estaba abonado para una victoria republicana. A pesar de ello, Trump solo obtuvo el 49% de los sufragios. Por último, Hillary Clinton era una candidata horrorosa, tanto en términos estratégicos como tácticos, y cometió errores importantes que le costaron la victoria. En cuanto a los factores estructurales, destacan en especial cuatro: el cambio demográfico, el auge de China, la revolución en el mercado energético y las heridas de la crisis financiera. El cambio demográfico supone que cada vez habrá menos estadounidenses blancos y más de otras razas, en especial latinoamericanos y asiáticos. Eso implica que Europa les importará cada vez menos. A su vez, la llegada de China al comercio internacional es mucho más grande de lo que nadie se imaginó. En tan solo una generación ha pasado de aportar el 5% del valor añadido bruto industrial del mundo a suponer el 25%. China, además, representa el 20% de las exportaciones mundiales y tiene un gran superávit corriente. Pues bien, Trump ganó las elecciones en los territorios más afectados negativamente por China. Los grandes perdedores son personas blancas no hispanas, con un nivel de formación de educación secundaria o menor, mayores de 50 años, cuyo nivel de vida es el 150% del nivel de pobreza. Eso ha tenido consecuencias electorales. En el ámbito energético, el fracking supone toda una revolución, porque ha convertido a Estados Unidos en el primer país por reservas de petróleo y gas del mundo. Esto ha provocado que pase de ser importador a exportador de productos energéticos. A su vez, la crisis financiera ha provocado un descontento generalizado con el sistema financiero. Además, hay que tener en cuenta que las crisis financieras son muy diferentes de las crisis normales en sus efectos políticos y económicos. En este caso, ha dado lugar, entre otras cosas, a la aparición del populismo y para los populistas es muy fácil convertir en enemigo al sistema de comercio internacional. En este ciclo electoral, la crisis financiera ha sido especialmente cruenta por la concentración de efectos. Con todo lo anterior, se han construido tres teorías sobre la estrategia de Trump. La primera de ellas dice que su intención es reconstruir un sistema internacional diferente al liberal. La segunda dice que todo consiste en luchar duro para obtener más beneficios. La tercera se resume en hacer cosas a medida que se avanza. Como consecuencia de ello, las instituciones del sistema internacional, como el FMI, el Banco Mundial o la Organización Mundial del Comercio, van a quedar muy afectadas porque EEUU ha pasado de ser un agente cooperador a no cooperador. Esto es peligroso cuando llegue una crisis. Además, el sistema de seguridad colectiva queda tocado, mientras se pierde la confianza en Estados Unidos. A partir de ahí, no sabemos cómo de grande va a ser esta guerra comercial. En el peor caso los aranceles subirán del 5% al 30% o al 60%. El PIB mundial bajaría un 2% o 3%, pero el bienestar caería mucho más. Además, va a haber un coste en términos de tasa de crecimiento de unas décimas al año, con efectos tremendos a largo plazo. Los riesgos de esta situación para Europa se encuentran en los ámbitos de la seguridad y la energía. En el caso energético, se debe a que Estados Unidos ya no tendrá interés en esforzarse por mantener abiertas las rutas comerciales del petróleo. En relación con ello, Oriente Medio perdería importancia para Estados Unidos. China podría tener problemas en los mercados internacionales y podría seguir con la escalada militar.
My guest in this episode, recorded November 8, 2017, is Fiona Burlig (University of Chicago). We discuss her research on energy efficiency and machine learning. I also summarize some of the recent National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) working papers. I hope you enjoy! Subscribe: Android | iTunes | RSS Paper Links: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, … Continue reading "Ep 5: Frontiers in Economic Research"
My guest in this episode, recorded November 5, 2017, is Eoin McGuirk (Yale University). We discuss his research on politics and war. I also summarize some of the recent National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) working papers. I hope you enjoy! Subscribe: Android | iTunes | RSS Paper Links: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 … Continue reading "Ep 4: Frontiers in Economic Research"
My guest in this episode, recorded October 27, 2017, is Kristopher Hult (Charles River Associates). We discuss his research on personalized medicine. I also summarize some of the recent National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) working papers. I hope you enjoy! Subscribe: Android | iTunes | RSS Paper Links: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 … Continue reading "Ep 3: Frontiers in Economic Research"
My guest in this episode, recorded October 22, 2017, is John Buckell (Yale University). We discuss his research on regulation of e-cigarettes. References to the literature on this topic are provided below. I also summarize some of the recent National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) working papers. I hope you enjoy! Subscribe: Android | iTunes | RSS Paper … Continue reading "Ep 2: Frontiers in Economic Research"
In this sixth episode, recorded October 3, 2017, I welcome my second guest, Vasil Yasenov (UC Berkeley and IZA). We discuss his research on immigration and labor markets. I also summarize some of the recent National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) working papers. Two topics are prominent: immigration and health. I hope you enjoy! Subscribe: Android | … Continue reading "Ep 1: Frontiers in Economic Research"
Jeffrey Frankel is a professor and economist at Harvard University and the director of the Program in International Finance and Macroeconomics at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). He joins the show to discuss serving on the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, which officially declares the start and end of recessions. David and Jeff also discuss the monetary history of the Plaza Accord, an international agreement in 1985 to devalue the U.S. dollar. Jeff also shares his thoughts on globalization in the past few decades and current-day challenges facing it. David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Jeff Frankel’s Harvard profile: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/about/faculty-staff-directory/jeffrey-frankel Jeff Frankel’s NBER publications: http://www.nber.org/authors/jeffrey_frankel David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Related links: “Globalization of the Economy” by Jeffrey Frankel https://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/NyeGlobWPwFigPost.pdf “Globalization and Chinese Growth: End of Trends” by Jeffrey Frankel http://scholar.harvard.edu/frankel/publications/globalization-and-chinese-growth-ends-trends “The Plaza Accord: 30 Years Later” by Jeffrey Frankel https://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/PlazaAccord-PIIE2016.pdf
On Thursday, March 24, 2011, Dr. Anil K. Kashyap gave the Fathauer Lecture in Political Economy at The University of Arizona Eller College of Management. Anil K. Kashyap is the Edward Eagle Brown Professor of Economics and Finance and Richard N. Rosett Faculty Fellow at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. His research focuses on banking, business cycles, corporate finance, price setting, and monetary policy. His research has won him numerous awards, including a Sloan Research Fellowship, the Nikkei Prize for Excellent Books in Economic Sciences, and a Senior Houblon-Norman Fellowship from the Bank of England. Prior to joining the Chicago Booth faculty in 1991, Kashyap spent three years as an economist for the Board of Governors for the Federal Reserve System. He currently works as a consultant for the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and serves as a member of the Economic Advisory Panel of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and as a Research Associate for the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). He is one of the advisors to the Cabinet Office of the Government of Japan for its research project on “The Japanese Economy and Macroeconomic Policies over Last Twenty-Five Years,” is on the Congressional Budget Office's Panel of Economic Advisers, serves on the Board of Directors of the Bank of Italy’s Einuadi Institute of Economics and Finance and is a member of the Squam Lake Group on Financial Regulation. Kashyap is also one of the academic members of the Bellagio Group (whose non-academic members consist of the Deputy Central Bank Governors and Vice Ministers of Finance of the G7 countries). Kashyap serves as co-organizer of the NBER's Working Group on the Japanese Economy and of the NBER’s Working Group on the Functioning of Financial Firms and Resolution of their Distress, is a member of both the American Economic Association and American Finance Association, and cofounded the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum. He is one of the two faculty directors of the Chicago Booth’s Initiative on Global Markets. He regularly speaks on the financial crisis, Japan, the global economy, and the direction of economic policy. He graduated from the University of California at Davis in 1982 with a bachelor's degree in economics and statistics with highest honors. In 1989, he earned a Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He enjoys rotisserie baseball, bridge, and the Indianapolis 500.
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