Podcasts about btig

NYC Athletes Help BTIG Have One Leg Up On This Special Giving Tuesday 5-20-25More on BTIG as referenced on One Leg Up With Alex Garrett - https://www.btig.com/

Jim and Jeff discuss Alibaba's warning of a potential AI bubble in the U.S. and BTIG upgrading Capital One on Discover Financial deal prospects. Become a CNBC Investing Club member to go behind the scenes with Jim Cramer and Jeff Marks as they talk candidly about the market's biggest headlines. Signup here: cnbc.com/morningtake CNBC Investing Club Disclaimer

Carvana (CVNA) gets an upgrade from Morgan Stanley, BTIG gives Crowdstrike (CRWD) a bullish price target, and KB Home (KBH) is set to open at a new 52-week low after earnings.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Kevin Green examines an upside and downside mover ahead of Tuesday's open. CrowdStrike (CRWD) shares are popping after an upgrade at BTIG, as the firm sees the cybersecurity company's issues in the "rearview mirror." Meanwhile, KB Home (KBH) falls after an earnings miss and cutting guidance in its 1Q report. For the S&P 500 (SPX), Kevin says to watch $5800 to the upside and $5705 to the downside.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Crowdstrike (CRWD) rallied this morning after BTIG upgraded the stock to buy from neutral. Jeff Pierce takes a deeper look into the report and explains why it's the latest sign cybersecurity isn't fading anytime soon. Tim Biggam offers an example options trade in expectations of a temporary pullback on the horizon.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Danny Moses hosts Isaac Boltansky, Director of Policy Research at BTIG, to discuss the latest developments in Washington, D.C., under the new Trump administration. Key topics include potential government shutdowns, implications for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, regulatory changes for banks, and the role of various federal agencies. They also delve into the effects of fiscal policies on mortgage rates, the economic landscape, and market responses to policy decisions. The discussion offers insights into sectors like banking, sin stocks, and the gambling industry, while emphasizing the importance of IRS and SEC enforcement in maintaining financial order. -- ABOUT THE SHOW For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

MRKT Matrix - Friday, February 14th Stocks are little changed as Wall Street takes a pause after a strong week (CNBC) US Retail Sales Drop by Most in Two Years Amid Fires, Storms (Bloomberg) Corporate America is complaining about ‘currency headwinds.' What it means for investors (CNBC) Tech stocks return to December ‘scene of the crime', raising concern of another pullback, BTIG warns (CNBC) Tesla Dip Buyers Face a Treacherous Path Amid Bearish Signals (Bloomberg) TSMC Considers Running Intel's US Factories After Trump Team Request (Bloomberg) Apple, Google Restore TikTok App After Assurance From Trump (Bloomberg) Google Gemini now brings receipts to your AI Chats (TechCrunch) DeepSeek Sparks Investor Pessimism on SoftBank's $500 Billion Stargate Push (Bloomberg) Trump Says New Tariffs on Autos Coming Around April 2 (Bloomberg) Vance Wields Threat of Sanctions, Military Action to Push Putin Into Ukraine Deal (WSJ) --- Subscribe to our newsletter: https://riskreversalmedia.beehiiv.com/subscribe MRKT Matrix by RiskReversal Media is a daily AI powered podcast bringing you the top stories moving financial markets Story curation by RiskReversal, scripts by Perplexity Pro, voice by ElevenLabs

Two veteran Capitol Hill analysts return to the Arch MI PolicyCast to discuss the second Trump administration's impact on housing. Kirk Willison's guests are Cowen Washington Research Group's Jaret Seiberg and BTIG's Isaac Boltansky.

- BTIG Technical Strategist Sees Apple Shares Slumping - Trump Asks SCOTUS for Time to Work TikTok Deal - Zagg Warns of Data Breach - Sponsored by 1Password Extended Access Management - your solution for IAM and MDM. Learn more at 1Password.com/macosken - We're looking at three of our favorites A.I. films on Checklist 405 - Neo-el: Hacky Holidays Reloaded - online at checklist.libsyn.com - Catch Ken on Mastodon - @macosken@mastodon.social - Chat with us in Patreon for as little as $1 a month. Support the show at Patreon.com/macosken - Send me an email: info@macosken.com or call (716)780-4080!

Willy was joined by Isaac Boltansky, Director of Policy Research at BTIG, on the Walker Webcast. Isaac is responsible for coordinating his firm's Washington policy analysis and forecasting how potential policy shifts could impact investors, corporations, and other market participants. So, what is he predicting? He and Willy covered a range of topics shaping the political and economic landscape, including the privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, border security and immigration enforcement, regulatory consumer finance, the U.S.' investment in defense, energy policy, tariff proposals, geopolitical relations, his outlook on Fed cuts, new administration Cabinet picks, and so much more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Where are these markets likely to head over the next few months? Courtney Garcia of Payne Capital, HSBC's Max Kettner and Capital Area Planning Group's Malcolm Ethridge debate where they see stocks headed. Plus, top technician Jonathan Krinsky from BTIG says U.S. stocks seem to be the only game in town right now. He explains why. And we explain why Jetblue shares soared in today's session. 

The U.S. election could change the legislative, supervisory and regulatory framework for the banking industry. In the episode, we discuss what different election outcomes could mean for banks with three guests focused on policy, regulation and rulemaking: Paul Merski, executive vice president, congressional relations and strategy at the Independent Community Bankers of America; Naomi Camper, chief policy officer at the American Bankers Association; and Isaac Boltansky, managing director and director of policy research at BTIG. The group outlined the current regulatory framework under the Biden administration and how it has differed from the Trump administration. The panelists agreed that a Harris presidency could be seen as a continuation of the existing regulatory framework and noted that a Trump victory could lead to significant regulatory shifts, particularly around consumer issues, fintech and bank M&A activity. But, they also noted that both candidates have shared populist views, creating a horseshoe effect of the ideological specturm.

Episode Notes Marriott has reached an agreement with 49 states and Washington, D.C., to pay $52 million to settle charges related to data security, writes Senior Hospitality Editor Sean O'Neill.  O'Neill notes the settlement with the states relates to a database security incident in 2018 in the guest reservations system of Starwood, a hotel group Marriott had just acquired.  And the Federal Trade Commission is requiring Marriott to put in place a new data security program following three breaches from 2014 to 2020 that affected over 300 million people worldwide. Next, 2025 might not be full of blockbuster activity for online travel agencies. The sector is projected to see more stock buybacks but not a lot of mergers and acquisitions, writes Executive Editor Dennis Schaal. A BTIG research report revealed that Airbnb, Booking Holdings and Expedia Group will likely generate between $15 billion and $16 billion in free cash flow next year. Those companies are expected to allot $13 billion of that amount to stock buybacks.  However, the report said the online travel agency industry probably won't see large-scale consolidation in the near future, with Schaal noting the regulatory environment in the U.S. and Europe isn't particularly friendly to big-time mergers.  Finally, Hyatt and American Airlines will make significant changes to the collaboration between their loyalty programs, writes Senior Hospitality Editor Sean O'Neill.  Both companies will offer more redemption options to their most loyal customers. Starting next year, members who link their programs can earn rewards from the partner program at various loyalty tiers. However, the ability for members to earn miles and points at the same time on stays and flights will end on December 31.   For more travel stories and deep dives into the latest trends, head to skift.com.  Connect with Skift LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/skift/ X: https://twitter.com/skift Facebook: https://facebook.com/skiftnews Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/skiftnews/ WhatsApp: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaAL375LikgIXmNPYQ0L/ Subscribe to @SkiftNews and never miss an update from the travel industry.

PepsiCo (PEP) trading is mixed Tuesday morning after the company lowered its full-year revenue guidance. Qualcomm (QCOM) slipped after getting a downgrade, as did American Express (AXP) following downgrades from BTIG and HSBC. The credit card company's stock reached all time highs earlier this month. Caroline Woods breaks down the morning's top stories. ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

This week, SPACInsider founder Kristi Marvin speaks with a panel spanning the banking, investing and advisory sides of SPAC transactions. She is joined by Ed Kovary, Head of SPAC Capital Markets at BTIG, Nick Skibo, Managing Partner at Gritstone Asset Management, and Dimitre Genov, a Managing Director at Brookline Capital Markets advising SPAC sponsors on IPOs and de-SPAC transactions. Kristi checks in on how recent trends like the resurgence of anchor investors is perceived by the various participants in a SPAC transaction through to close, and what the SPAC landscape looks like now with the previous cycle winding to a close and a new one beginning.  

With deep roots on the sell-side, serving in strategist roles at both Miller Tabak and BTIG, Dan Greenhaus is now Chief Strategist at Solus Asset Managment, a multi-billion dollar AuM firm with expertise in distressed and high yield investing.  Our conversation considers economics in theory and practice, differentiating classic academic training from the role someone like Dan plays on a trading desk supporting clients, portfolio managers and an investment process.Here, Dan shares the importance of understanding what's in the price and details his efforts to evaluate consensus by talking to other strategists around the Street to understand baseline expectation. This is some part of what he describes as his role as blindside tackle at Solus, working to identify areas of macro uncertainty that may be under-appreciated.We talk about the current state of the economy and the stance of Fed policy. On the latter, Dan argues that while the impact of tighter policy on slowing has been much less rapid than anticipated, it has worked. And while he's successfully faded the repeated calls that the consumer was going to crack over the past two years, he now sees signs worth paying close attention to. He points to simple measures like weekly jobless claims and also puts stock in Visa's recent earnings call in which weakness was cited across multiple spending categories.Dan's study of prior Fed easing cycles suggests that rate cuts have typically come too late to offset broad-based economic weakness. Will this time be different?  Perhaps, given the strength of both household balance sheets and fiscal spending. But, as with everything in the realm of markets and investing, Dan properly asserts that we must approach forecasts with humility.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Dan Greenhaus.

Shoot us a Text.Its the last day of the month, and we're wishing all of you a successful day! Today, we're flashing back to the very first automotive ad, then bringing it back to the present state of Carvana's continued rise, an awkward recall involving Tesla hoods and Mazda's new logo.Show Notes with linksOn July 30th in 1898, the weekly journal Scientific American introduced the world's first car ad, courtesy of Cleveland's Winton Motor Carriage Company. The ad boldly proclaimed, “Dispense with a horse and save the expense, care, and anxiety of keeping it. To run a motor carriage costs about ½ cent a mile.”This pitch marked a shift from horse-drawn carriages to the dawn of automotive travel. Alexander Winton's brainchild promised a future of motoring convenience and ignited public curiosity, leading to a surge in orders and ultimately reshaping transportation history.Online used-vehicle retailer Carvana is expected to report a significant year-over-year increase in sales for the second quarter, with results anticipated post-market close on July 31.Carvana sold 91,878 used vehicles in Q1 2024, up 16% year-over-year.Analysts predict Q2 sales will surpass last year's 76,530 vehicles, with a potential 3% quarter-over-quarter growth, with William Blair analyst Sharon Zackfia adjusting her Q2 sales estimate to 98,900 vehicles.Increased inventory (+15%) and site traffic (+16%) are positive indicators.BTIG analyst Marvin Fong praises Carvana's business model, setting a share price target at $155.“While there's no way around the fact Carvana trades at a premium to most e-commerce and auto-related stocks, we believe [Carvana's] vertically integrated and in-sourced business model is simply a better mousetrap in an enormous automotive retail market that shouldn't be overlooked,” Fong noted.Tesla is recalling approximately 1,849,638 vehicles due to a software glitch affecting the hood latch assembly, impacting the 2021-2024 Model 3, Model S, Model X, and 2020-2024 Model Y.NHTSA warns the software may fail to detect an unlatched hood, potentially causing it to open and obstruct the driver's view, increasing crash risk.Tesla has issued a free OTA software update to fix the issue without requiring physical visits to service centers.Mazda appears to be the latest brand to flatten its logo, removing its previous texture and identity, as indicated by a recent trademark filing in Japan, which shows a new, streamlined design.The new logo retains the familiar shape and downward "M" within a circular emblem, used since 1997.The simplified logo was previously seen on the Arata SUV concept at Auto China 2024, and its uncertain if the new logo will appear on future Mazda models in the US.Hosts: Paul J Daly and Kyle MountsierGet the Daily Push Back email at https://www.asotu.com/ JOIN the conversation on LinkedIn at: https://www.linkedin.com/company/asotu/ Read our most recent email at: https://www.asotu.com/media/push-back-email

Die Blicke richten sich auf den heutigen Rechenschaftsbericht von FED-Chef Jerome Powell vor dem Senat. Seine Aussagen sollten signalisieren, dass eine Zinswende zunehmend wahrscheinlich wird. Ansonsten mahnt Morgan Stanley und BTIG vor dem Beginn einer Korrektur. Die Citigroup betont, dass Anleger Gewinne bei den Aktien der KI-Überflieger sichern sollten. Trotzdem haben wir heute gerade in diesem Sektor erneut viele Empfehlungen und steigende Kursziele. Die Bank of America empfiehlt Apple mit einem Ziel von $230 zum Kauf. Bei der Keybank wird das Ziel für Marvell auf $95 angehoben. Die Bank hebt das Ziel für NVIDIA von $130 auf $190 an. Die Marke für Qualcomm steigt von $205 auf $225. Abonniere den Podcast, um keine Folge zu verpassen! ____ Folge uns, um auf dem Laufenden zu bleiben: • Facebook: http://fal.cn/SQfacebook • Twitter: http://fal.cn/SQtwitter • LinkedIn: http://fal.cn/SQlinkedin • Instagram: http://fal.cn/SQInstagram

Exklusiver CLARK Deal ➡️ https://www.clark.de/landing/social/wallstreet74/ Lade zwei bestehende Versicherungen hoch und erhalte einen 30€ Gutschein! +++ Alle Rabattcodes und Infos zu unseren Werbepartnern findet ihr hier: https://linktr.ee/wallstreet_podcast +++ Ein Podcast - featured by Handelsblatt. Die Blicke richten sich auf den heutigen Rechenschaftsbericht von FED-Chef Jerome Powell vor dem Senat. Seine Aussagen sollten signalisieren, dass eine Zinswende zunehmend wahrscheinlich wird. Ansonsten mahnt Morgan Stanley und BTIG vor dem Beginn einer Korrektur. Die Citigroup betont, dass Anleger Gewinne bei den Aktien der KI-Überflieger sichern sollten. Trotzdem haben wir heute gerade in diesem Sektor erneut viele Empfehlungen und steigende Kursziele. Die Bank of America empfiehlt Apple mit einem Ziel von $230 zum Kauf. Bei der Keybank wird das Ziel für Marvell auf $95 angehoben. Die Bank hebt das Ziel für NVIDIA von $130 auf $190 an. Die Marke für Qualcomm steigt von $205 auf $225. *Werbung

Immer mehr Brokerhäuser warnen vor dem Beginn einer Korrektur. BTIG und Stifel gehen davon aus, dass die Wall Street kurzfristig weiterhin unter Druck stehen wird. Beide raten Anlegern eine defensive Haltung einzunehmen. Wir sehen seit einigen Tagen, dass sinkende Renditen bei Staatsanleihen der Aktienseite nicht mehr helfen. Ein Signal, dass die Sorge vor nachlassendem Wachstum in den Fokus rückt. Die Wirtschaftsdaten der nächsten Tage werden somit um so wichtiger sein. Der April-JOLTS lag mit 8,06 Millionen offenen Stellen deutlich unter den erwarteten 8,35 Millionen. Die Daten vom März wurden außerdem nach unten revidiert. Abonniere den Podcast, um keine Folge zu verpassen! ____ Folge uns, um auf dem Laufenden zu bleiben: • Facebook: http://fal.cn/SQfacebook • Twitter: http://fal.cn/SQtwitter • LinkedIn: http://fal.cn/SQlinkedin • Instagram: http://fal.cn/SQInstagram

Exklusiver NordVPN Deal ➡️ https://www.nordvpn.com/Wallstreet Mit der 30-Tage-Geld-zurück-Garantie von NordVPN gibt es kein Risiko! +++ Alle Rabattcodes und Infos zu unseren Werbepartnern findet ihr hier: https://linktr.ee/wallstreet_podcast +++ Ein Podcast - featured by Handelsblatt. Immer mehr Brokerhäuser warnen vor dem Beginn einer Korrektur. BTIG und Stifel gehen davon aus, dass die Wall Street kurzfristig weiterhin unter Druck stehen wird. Beide raten Anlegern eine defensive Haltung einzunehmen. Wir sehen seit einigen Tagen, dass sinkende Renditen bei Staatsanleihen der Aktienseite nicht mehr helfen. Ein Signal, dass die Sorge vor nachlassendem Wachstum in den Fokus rückt. Die Wirtschaftsdaten der nächsten Tage werden somit um so wichtiger sein. Um 16h MEZ wird der April-JOLTS gemeldet. Die Wall Street rechnet mit 8,35 Millionen offenen Stellen. *Werbung

Matt Bisanz interviews Isaac Boltansky, Director of Policy Research at BTIG, about the risks and regulatory trends for the rest of the year.

Almost a year ago, New York Community Bank (NYSE: NYCB) acquired Signature Bank's assets as a fresh banking crisis had emerged almost overnight. The fallout from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank wreaked havoc on financial markets and raised fears of a 2008 scenario.Over the past week, those fears have again come to life. NYCB issued a dismal earnings report, followed by a set of questionable disclosures. The stock tumbled, and commercial real estate values are again in question.With more write-offs and loan losses surely to come, why are many of the S&P Real Estate Sector fund components showing signs of life and stock price momentum? We pose this question to our guest, Katie Stockton, of Fairlead Funds.Fairlead recently added The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE) to their portfolio based on proprietary research utilizing technical analysis. Mortgage rates, which were in the 2-3% range during Covid, have recently retreated from the eight percent level and are bouncing between 6.5 and 7%.The stock market has reached new highs, unemployment is low, and job creation is strong. What comes next?What would John Bogle, founder of Vanguard Funds, comment if he were alive today? Would he continue to advocate for long-term investing in low-cost index-related funds? Yes.What does our guest, Katie Stockton, a Chartered Market Technician, have to say about current market conditions? Let's find out. Technical analysis is a methodology using charts and trends for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. Additionally, momentum and relative strength.1Fundamental analysis, in accounting and finance, is the analysis of a business's financial statements (usually to analyze the business's assets, liabilities and earnings); health; and competitors and markets.2GuestKatie Stockton, CMT is Founder and Managing Partner of Fairlead Strategies, LLC, an independent research firm and investment advisor focused on technical analysis. Prior to forming Fairlead Strategies, Katie spent more than 20 years on Wall Street providing technical research and advice to institutional investors. Most recently, she served as Chief Technical Strategist for BTIG and Chief Market Technician at MKM Partners. She also worked for technical strategy teams at Morgan Stanley and Wit Soundview.CNBC Fast Money, January 24, 2024With help from the Fairlead Strategies team, Katie provides research and consulting services to institutions and individuals, and she is the portfolio manager for the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (TACK). Katie received her Chartered Market Technician (CMT®) designation in 2001, and later served as Vice President of the CMT Association from 2012 to 2016. For several years, she has been honored by The Technical Analyst, a U.K. based publication, including an award in 2022 for Best Cryptocurrency Research.Katie graduated with honors from the University of Richmond with a BSBA, and she now serves on the business school's Executive Advisory Council. She is a member of the Endowment Investment Committee for her church. Katie frequently shares her views on CNBC and other financial news networks.Jack BogleCNBC, Cramer, Obit, Jack Bogle was despised and he loved itJack Bogle Shares the Investment Lessons of a LifetimeJohn Bogle wikipediaJohn Bogle remarks to CFA Institute, May 23, 2017John Bogle advice About The Author And Podcast Host Tom LevineTom Levine is a Native Angelino and graduate of USC Marshall School of Business, the Claremont Colleges, and spent a term at the London School of Economics. Following a 25 year career in capital markets, Tom Levine founded Zero Hour Group in 2014. The Los Angeles, California-based firm provides consulting, strategic analysis, valuation and real estate services. Serving individuals, family offices, institutions and professional investors.Native Angelino Real Estate, established 2017, for residential, commercial and investment related transactions. Additionally, he is a broker and certified Short Sale and Forclosure specialist under the National Association of Realtors. (CADRE #2052698)The Native Angelino Podcast is underwritten and produced in conjunction with the Zero Hour Group, 1929 and Native Angelino Real Estate, and associated real estate assets.Native Angelino description found on iTunes:“From a vantage point within sight of the Hollywood Sign, seated beneath a palm tree, Tom Levine takes you on a twisted, exploratory tour of popular thought, the upside-down theories of classical economics, politics, and other strange things.Tom talks all things Los Angeles, bright new ideas, and complex topics of interest to creative thinkers and discerning skeptics.L.A. locals state with pride, "You can surf in the morning and ski in the afternoon." Well, if you get a really early start, it's true. Sometimes.Los Angeles is the City of the Angels, and Tom Levine is a Native Angelino.Neither the author, nor Native Angelino/1929, is a registered investment, legal or tax advisor or a broker / dealer. All investment/ financial opinions expressed here are from the personal research, experience, and opinions of the owner of the site and are intended as educational material. Although best efforts are made to ensure that all information is accurate, occasionally unintended errors and misprints may occur. Do your Own Research please. Our content is for informational purposes only. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live/subscribe

Helane Becker, TD Cowen Sr. Research Analyst, remains confident in the airline industry despite the recent Boeing in-flight safety incident. Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, says sentiments around the equity market got carried away at the end of 2023. Claudia Sahm, Sahm Consulting Founder & Bloomberg Opinion Writer, says December's jobs data points to a healthy labor market. Isaac Boltansky, BTIG Director of Policy Research, discusses Congress' agreement on a spending-cap deal as well as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's unannounced stay in the hospital. Barton Crockett, Rosenblatt Securities Managing Director, details the reasons behind his firm's neutral outlook on Apple this year. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance  Full Transcript:This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best an economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Helene Becker joins now senior research analyst at TD Cowen, and we're thrilled that she could be with us today. Helene, January twenty second. I guess we get an earnings report from United, the others will lined up. What is their urgency to act, not so much off the Boeing accident, but their urgency to act because of the topsy turvy markets they're in now. I think that we have a situation where we're expecting, or we saw fourth quarter traffic was pretty good. The further we get away from twenty twenty, the more we'll see managed corporate travel come back. I think the trip where you have maybe a one day trip isn't coming back anytime soon. I feel like it's a lot like after nine to eleven tom when the really short haul trips went away, and we expect that to continue really now. But the longer haul trips. People need to get out, they need to see their clients. We've been talking about this for about a year now and we're seeing that. We're seeing that increase in managed travel, and we think that we'll continue into the rest of this year. With the Boeing accident, with the rivets, the fasteners, whatever, we're going to see in the coming weeks of that analysis, even months, I should say, of that analysis, what does it mean for the dynamic of refleeting A word I discovered last week. I think Helene Becker, you know, refleeting is going out and buying the bright, shiny new thing accelerated. Yeah, well yes, and no American did their refleeting in the last decade, so they're on the downside of that. United is doing it now and into twenty thirty two. Delta is in the middle of it. But Delta has a different and Southwest actually have different viewpoints on the way they refleet. They kind of spend about ten percent revenue on capex, somewhere between eight and ten percent every year, so they're continually refleeting, so we view that fairly favorably. I don't think anything changes. There's a lot of pressure on the industry to lower their carbon footprint. I know aviation only makes up two percent of total transportation carbon, but others are doing the whole reduction carbon faster, so aviation over time will become a bigger percentage of it. So there's a lot of pressure to fly young are more fully efficient aircraft oleane. I can't get past this comment from George ferguson words you never want to hear, when he basically came out and said it's not as safe as it was before the pandemic, talking about the safety of flying at a time when we did just have this incident with Alaska Airlines, also the incident that we saw in Japan, Questions around the competency and staffing levels at some of the agencies. Are you concerned? Do you feel like that is an accurate statement that it is not as safe to fly today as pre pandemic. No, no, no, I disagree with that completely. The fact that there were no casualties on the japan Air A three thirty is hugely significant. They were able to evacuate that entire aircraft without any incident, with half the doors being half the emergency doors being unusable because of fire. So I think that's one thing to consider. I think from an aviation perspective and a safety perspect that every time there's an incident, there's an investigation. There is no cover up. You never see that as you would in some as you may in some other industries. There have it. I mean, not to cha the industry, but there really haven't been any major accidents. The fact that Alaska air pilots were able to declare any emergency turnaround land safely with no injuries is hugely significant. And I think aviation is still the sepest form of transportation. No other industry does the deep dive into accidents that aviation does, and then aviation trains for every accident, and I think I think it's I think aviation is still very safe. I think that a lot of people will point to what happened in Japan and point out that that plane that everyone did manage to get out of I believe was an air bus and not a poet. But nevertheless, Yeah, So going forward, though, I'm curious what about some of the air traffic control issues and some of these other things. How important is it for airlines to do some sort of pr job, if nothing else, to assuage some of the concerns of neurotic people like myself. Where you're looking at this and thinking like, I don't know, well, I think you have to think aviation is safe number one. Number two, Yes, we do need to address the air traffic control situation, and the fact that we now have a permanent administrator is hugely important. That's another, you know, another thing that we view favorably. The FAA is certified to March eighth, so the government needs to really step up its efforts and get it certified permanently. My views are different than some of my peer group. I personally think the government should be responsible for safety and security, and I think your traffic control should be a separate corporation that's public that's paid for everybody. Right now, General Aviation, TOLUM and least in John don't pay for using air traffic control system. Helen, this is I wish we had another hour to cover this because I think each and every listener and viewer want to know about Back to the Reagan uproar and unions of years ago. How different is our transportation safety structure versus other major developing countries. Yeah, so euro Control runs Europe and that's a public company and Canada's public company and Canada it's just run differently. And I'm not saying it's better. I'm not saying it's worse. I'm just saying it's different, and you don't have the puts and starts that you have here. I've been talking about next gen since I started covering the industry four decades ago, and we're still talking about it. It's years behind schedule, it's over budget. Air traffic control, to your point, Tom, the Reagan administration fired all the air traffic controllers. They retrained them NAT because the union that represents them. They're they're well trained, but they're overworked, they're fatigued. We don't have enough of them to handle what we're doing right now, and so the aviation system will slow down. You won't be able to We'll see growth through replacing smaller aircraft with larger aircraft. We don't think we'll see the same level of pilot hiring in twenty four and twenty five that we saw in twenty one, two and three. That from that perspective. As we move further into the decade and people have more experience, that will be beneficial. But we're not going to grow as fast as we grow in prior decades because we just don't have the experience, and we can push the air traffic controllers to too much over time because it's a very taxing job to begin with, and we don't want any accidents to occur in the US because we want to continue to be able to say it's the safest form of transportation. Helen, I've got sixty seconds left on a clock top pic if ivor trade this year? What is it? Oh? Yeah, our favorite trade this year is Delta after United was our face for trade for the past two years. Why the change? The difference in capex, frankly is the biggest difference. I think United will continue to do well, but they're going to borrow a lot of money, sick. They have a sixty billion dollar capex program between now and twenty thirty two, and Deltas is not nearly as big, so you won't see the stress and the balance sheet that you may see at United. Interesting, Helene, thank you, thanks for the up date and lane backing there of td count, Thank you very much. Starting in the conversation this morning with Lori Cavassino, the head of US screty strategy at RBC Capital Markets, Loury, Good morning to you. This line jumped down from your most recent note, the week's start in January is just the beginning of a phase of turbulence. How concerned are you about that? Well, well, Johnny, I was talking to one of my traders last week and we were discussing the CFTC data. We're starting to see it's really just looking very very stretched, and I said, this looks scary, and I think we need to keep in mind that sentiment has been oscillating very very quickly over the last six months, so this isn't necessarily something that has to derail a call for the year. Maybe damp an enthusiasm just a little bit, but really what we've started to see the CFTC data on institutional investor positioning line up with what we're seeing on the retail survey for aaii, and both are looking very very stretched right now. I think there are a number of things that could come in and trip this market up a bit, but usually it's something the market doesn't see coming, So I think we need to focus here on the idea that sentiment itself just got carried away at the end of last year. Laurie Mike Wilson has been cautious on the markets. Over at Morgan Stanley has a brilliant paragraph parketing to nominal growth could be the surprise this year. It's one of his more optimistic constructions of where we're heading in the mystery of twenty twenty four, what do mid caps and small caps do? If we get legitimate animal spirit, we get legitimate nominal GDP. So what we've done typically seen is that when GDP and we tend to look at it in real terms as opposed to nominal terms. But if you're looking at real GDP above two point six percent, and two point six percent has been the long term average since the late seventies, we typically see that small caps and value stocks outperform in that environment. When GDP is running cool below trend, that's when large caps and growth tend to outperform. So it goes back to this question of leadership and rotation in the market. We've got GDP forecasts sitting at about one point three percent this year. That's up from about one percent back in November, so they're moving in the right direction. But if we really want to get a lasting, sustainable, durable leadership rotation away from the megacap growth stocks and into basically everything else in the market, you need to see GDP expectations move up quite a bit more from where they are right now. I mean, okay, well, the GDP's got to come up. I get that, But what do we do right now? I mean, you're deploying cash to small you know they've pulled back. You deploying cash this morning to small caps and mid caps. So I still like them, I don't like them quite as much as I did, you know, say four or five weeks ago when we last spoke. One of the things we've seen is that, in addition to sentiment getting a little frothy at the broader market, if you look at small cap positioning on the CFTC data, we're at important crossroads. We're basically at the three year highs, but we're not at all time highs. So we're going to know pretty soon whether or not small caps are really able to power through and take things up another leg of we's also still seeing that small caps look very cheap relative to large But if you look at a Russell two thousand and forward pe, it's back to average. Now that's not usually where things top out at, but it is telling us that maybe we have made a lot of the easy money in small caps already. So do I like them? Yes? Do I like them as much as I did a month ago? Not quite? This sounds all kind of negative, and yet you just upgraded your forecast for year end twenty twenty four to a fifty one fifty. That's a ten percent upside from here. If it's not small caps what leads. So I think that the value stocks in particular are something to keep an eye on. From here. We've seen the financials act quite well now I'm actually a little bit nervous about that heading into reporting season, but we've started to see some more favorable views emerge on the industrials as well. So I think we're going to get some interesting clues in this reporting season. But I do think sector composition is very, very tough right now. I do think, Lisa, if you kind of go back to our target, we were anticipating about a ten percent return, and we put that target out in early our mid November we were on sort of the earlier side of putting targets out. We trued up all of our you know, sort of models for year end. We did have this big, ferocious run in December, and now where we're sitting today, even with this upgrade on the fifty one to fifty, it's only about an eight percent return on the year, So it's not necessarily getting more bullish. It's just kind of truing up our model for the year ahead based on the moves that we had in December. You mentioned banks, and I find this interesting. How important is Friday going to be as JP Morgan kicks off earnings to give a sense of what the landscape is for banks? Or is it just JP Morgan's world and everybody else is living in it? So I think they all matter, Lisa. You know, I don't think it's just any one particular bank. I know some get more attention than others, especially the one that come at the beginning. But I tell you what I think is important for the banks is one, are those sort of strong numbers that we've seen in terms of performance going to hold up. Sometimes we do see, you know, sort of the banks give back when they've had a strong lead into reporting season, So are the numbers going to be good enough to really justify sustaining some of the better trends we've seen recently. I think that's one thing. But also I think for someone like me who's not a specialist in the financials, we really go in and look at the financials for clues on the plumbing of the economy, on the health of the consumer. And I think that's probably going to be the most important thing coming out of the next kind of week or so with those banks earnings, the real headline over the weekend coming into this morning a positive surprise in Washington, d C. Laurie this story congressional leaders announcing a deal on top line spending for the current fiscal year. Laurie, I was speaking to Wemy with Silverman in the last week and we talked about your line that talking about politics the election this year specifically is like staring at the sun. Is it that bad this year for you and the team? Yeah, it's pretty awful, John. I mean it's interesting that line comes from my conversations with US based investors who are like, Okay, it's time to write our outlooks. You know, this is kind of thinking back the last month or so, you know, what do we say about this? And we kind of walk people through data, We get through it quickly, and then we move on European and Canadian investors. I mean, you could easily spend a whole meeting on this. It's like it's like a spectator sport for them at this point. But I do think it's a major source of uncertainty. And I'll tell you what it was interesting to me last week when I was working through some of the data we saw at the end of the year in the beginning of this year, is that you are starting to see money flows improve or turn positive to Japan, to emerging markets, to China, and to Europe. US flows are still holding up, but we are starting to see non US geographies really attract, you know, some better flows. And I think part of that has to do with the election. Based on what I'm hearing from the non US investors, Laurie answer a question for OURBC clients watching listening, which is, jeez, we started the year week and that signals a terrible year ahead. Is there any valid to that emotion? So I tend to be very skeptical of you know, these seasonal, you know kind of studies. Whenever we do this on this day, we do this for the rest of the week. I think that those kinds of studies can be massaged frankly, you know, change your starting point to show whatever you want to show. I've been actually looking at seasonality over the last ten years. We've had some good ones, we've had some stinkers, but we have seen that January has been pretty much a mixed bag. There have been some difficult ones if you especially look over the last five years. So it would be sort of keeping with a recent seasonality to have a rough start to the year. Does that necessarily tell you that you have to run away for the rest of the year. I don't think so. And I go back to what we talked about at the top of the show. Sentiment has been oscillating so quickly. We were basically overbought in August, oversold in November, overbought in December again, and that all round tripped off of oversold conditions last October and post SVB. So I think that sentiment helps you tactically. I don't think you can use it that much to make a really kind of longer term view. At this point, Laurie. Wonderful to get your views this morning. Thanks Obama. This lor Convasaye of the vampy seat capital market. Claudia sam will be up all night watching a football game as well. Claudia for the Department of Economics at Michigan, all that heritage. What does blue football actually mean? Do you completely ignore it? Or are you at the fifty yard line for every game? Well, they don't. Let the grad students have very good seats. But we went. You know, it's it's Michigan, Go Blue, Go Blue. We'll see tonight. Thank you so much for joining Claudia. Barry rid Oldson. You had a great idea out there that in our hysteria right now of single statistics, we have denominator blindness. Let's take the national debt the interest expense of that, and we forget how large our economy is or how large our labor force is. How is hysterical are we right now? And do we need to calm down? Well, we've needed to calm down for decades. This is not a new conversation. The debt has to be put in context, not just of our GDP. That's a flow that we get that every year. We need to think about in terms of their wealth, which is multiples of what that debt is. And I also a firm believer, and we need to look under the hood and what are we spending our money on. There's good ways to do it investment R and D, and there's ways that aren't as good, maybe really high income tax cuts. So that's where we need to have a conversation, not just throwing around big numbers. Is the FED throwing around big numbers? Are they having a conversation as they move out into twenty twenty four that you would consider appropriate and rational in terms of the debt or in terms of what they're doing in terms of what they're going to do with their monetary policy? Excuse me? Yeah, no, I mean the FED is trying to do the impossible. Well, right now, my heart goes out to them, and we will play a parlor game for the next year or two and what their next move is. And yeah, they've got the eye on the prize, right. They work through financial markets, but they really don't care about financial markets. It's about getting inflation down, it's about keeping people with jobs. And we're well on our way, but it's going to be tough. To know when they're there and can say, okay, we can back off. Let's do an anatomy of what happened on Friday, because it was some confusing data that I tried to parse through and continue to and read more reports, and I'm just as confused. Which data screams the truest to you at a time where we got stronger than expected headline number, some real shows of strength, and then real signs of weakness, particularly in services. Employment. Big picture of Friday's payrolls was a good day. We had unemployments staying at three point seven percent. We're averaging a little under two hundred thousand jobs in recent months. If you think about what the labor market is buffering, we have a five percentage point more than that increase in the federal funds rate. This is a labor market. Now. You can go under the hood. You can do this in almost any month and say, ugh, that doesn't look so good now. Granted, there were some real science things to keep an eye on, you know, and we always need to, but this was not a flashing red We're going over the cliff. I mean, come on, we've been under the one employer it's been under four percent for the longest stretch since the nineteen sixties. Well, it's good. What about the services ISM data. That's fact that hiring fell the most, the sort of sub index for that particular data point came in the most going back to twenty twenty at the height of the pandemic. Does this make you feel like we're at a tipping point? Even if no, we're not heading into the abyss that we are cooling off in a much more material way. It's been like case last year. We needed to rebounce. We needed to get to a place that was expansionary but not red hot. I mean, we were coming out of a really bad labor market with COVID. So we do need to see things normalizing slowing, not just this pace that's been so strong, because we want to get to a sustainable place and there are going to be all signs. Frankly, I take a lot more out of the payrolls data than I do the ISM and we need to look at everything. And yet we've gotten a lot of mixed signals from the data you know so far. So we adres a Samrell for us right now? How many states are in a miserable situation, doctor Son? So I haven't looked at every state recently. One that has stood out, and I imagine is still in the same place as California. That's a really good example of how you can have an industry that's having a tough time. I mean, tech in the Bay Area is legitimately having some tough times, and yet we have seen no signs of its spreading because it's an industry issue, it's not like a broad based contraction. And I will say at the national level, the samrull went back down to two tenths of a percentage point, So looking good so far. Coldly, I just want to weigh in on some of the politics, and I don't want to beg you too much, but whenever I listen to you talk about the labor market, you offer clarity where clarity can be found, and why there isn't any It leaves the question open. It's ready digestible, very very intuitive. Why do you think this administration is struggling with the messaging so much around what's happening with this economy? For a long time, Democrats have really put an emphasis on being the adult in the room. When I saw the jobs number, I had a gift that I use as like boom. You know, it's like, come on, let's get excited about this. Yes, there's more to do, and yet when I look at all it has been accomplished in the last four years and even during the Trump administration, the big push with CARES Act we really help people. Is not perfect, but like, don't hide behind what you've done, like go out and say we did agree. Job Okay, Then why can't they do that? I mean, John brings up an incredibly important point. Claudie sim You've been in the trenches. Why can't somebody just come out not say, you know, Rosie Morning in America and all that, but say, look, we understand the agonies out there, but boy has this worked out from COVID versus many other countries and continents. I really don't know. I mean, I have come across the fact that across the democratic spectrum there's just so much anger at each other. I mean, I've gotten the worst feedback from far left, and you know center isn't exactly happy with me either. So it's just it's so strange, right, But you know, I don't know. I hate politics. I really don't understand it. I just keep doing my work and trying to explain and trying to learn from what people are going through, and we value your work. Clodia, thank you as always, just fantastic to hear from you. Todi Samda of some consulting right now on your Washington. Isaac Multanski joints Director of Policy Research at BTIG. Isaac, I got to go with the lead a headline, which is, I guess all clear in Congress we've actually passed a budget. Is that true? Absolutely not. That couldn't be farther from the truth. We now have top line agreement on what we can spend for the fiscal year. That's great, it's wonderful, and that just means that the hard work gets to begin now. You know, I think you're two points to highlight. Number one is you've got to notice how angry the far right flank of the House GOP is this morning. We need to understand that the speaker, Speaker Johnson is operating with no room for error and he will almost certainly need democratic support to pass his bill. That's something that former Speaker McCarthy didn't want to do, ended up doing and then got thrown out from the speakership. And the number two is there are so many points of departure between Democrats and Republicans when it comes to the specifics of the spending agreement. There are upwards of forty different poison pills some groups have counted that could shut down the talks around this. So look, I think the temperature has been taken down. The risk of a shutdown is slightly lower this morning. But there's still a lot of work that needs to be done over the next eleven days. So what's the primary to do list arking over the next eleven days. Yeah, So what I'm looking looking at is I can get movement on the other issues around the spending bill. So it's good that we've got this, and now I think the appropriators will slink back into their offices and you'll see some backroom negotiation and maybe not much on that. I'm interested in the border deal, Tom, because we've got to keep in mind, the spending agreement is just part of this three D chess game that we have going on. The other part is the supplemental spending measures, and here I'm talking about border security, and then of course funding for Taiwan, Ukraine and Israel. That's the other part of it. And we'll Lynch. All of that is the border security deal that we're now expecting to come later this week. You mentioned the international security concerns, big foreign policy issues. We've got to talk about the curious case of the missing Defense Secretary now Isaac. First of all, we wish him all a speedy recovery from what none of us sink to know the detail. According to our reporting, Lloyd Austin underwent an elective procedure in late December, didn't tell his staff they should notify others when he was admitted to Walter Reed Medical Center on New Year's Day after experiencing severe pain at the same time as chief of staff was ill with the flu, and failed to notify anyone, the person said that we've been speaking to. According to our source, that Austin's military aid quickly put Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks in charge of running the Pentagon, although she wasn't informed of the reason for this decision, and the President seemingly for days didn't have a clue. I say, what was going on? What is going on? This is one of the weirder stories you're going to come across in the Biden administration, which by and large has been pretty tame when it comes to these personnel stories, especially compared to the previous four years. But it's deeply unsettling, right, I know that the secretary is an incredibly personal excuse me, an incredibly private person, and that this is something that all the staff have highlighted about him. Don't get to be this private when you're sixth in line in the presidential line of succession, and so, Look, this is deeply unsettling, especially given that transparency is one of the pillars of our political system. But ultimately, this too shall pass, and I think it just reminds you of some of the stories of personnel volatility that we saw during the Trump administration, which is going to be one of the campaign trail considerations as well. You said volatility. Do you expect him to step down? No, Look, I think that, depending on health, of course, that he is going to be fine. I mean, the President has not made any comment that suggests that the Defense Secretary won't will leave here, so I think he will stay. I wouldn't be surprised if he's replaced if the President Biden does win reelection, though, I think this is the type of thing that doesn't get you reappointed. Well, this raises a question though, in general about foreign policy and also the platform for President Biden going forward. There were a list of asks that people are talking about his new platform, all of which you're going to get red and are dead in the water. Is he going to basically be running on the anti Trump candidacy once again at a time when Trump is consolidating a lot of popular support. Yeah. Look, I mean there's obviously you've heard that line a thousand times that you campaign in poetry, but you govern in pros I don't think anyone's going to like the poetry we see from a campaign trail this time around. It is truly going to be a fear driven campaign. It is fear of the other side. It is fear of reversal, is fear of retribution. I don't seem to think that we're going to see much hope and excitement coming from the campaign trail over the next few months. Isaac, you know the polarity of the states with Ohio and Ohio Wesleyan, I'm absolutely fascinating of the polarity in the Iowa caucuses. What is the distinctive tension as we begin the political season in Iowa. I mean, looking, presidential primaries are about retail politics, and they're about and they're about personal preference more so than any national old pole could ever understand. And then when we think about Iowa, we've got to think about President Trump having a thirty two point leaked and we've got to think about also, and I think this is important. Tom DeSantis went all in on Iowa. This is it for him. And if he comes in second and loses by thirty points, which the polls are suggesting, pretty hard to imagine him being considered a serious contender going to New Hampshire where he's clearly third at far behind Haley. And so really this is to me, Iowa is a little assess for the DeSantis campaign. If he loses as badly as it looks, I think that his campaign, which already been floundering, will effectively be over. And it's really a question then of how strongly Nikki Haley can look in New Hampshire a week later. But to that point, Isaac, if he loses and he has to drop out, who does he back? Where do those votes go? Look? I think it will be incredibly difficult for him to back anyone. I think that he will remain in the background. My bet though, is that those bets, those vote's actually split somewhat to Haley and the rest stay home from the primary. But my point to clients say is Trump is going to be the nominee. That is very clear right now. He is the likely nominee. Those votes weren't trying to figure out where they're going. They're going to him in the general election. And so that's the important point here. There's still so many clients and so many people in DC who don't want it to be Trump v. Biden, and I understand that. But all indications are it's Trump vi Bide, and that's what the market and DC folks need to start wrapping their heads around when we think about the politics and the policy of it all. Isaac, thank you, sir, isa Boltanski then of b tch bot, a Crockett senior research analyst that rusn't black securities join just not for more. But and let's talk about that the prospective. Say I was picking up for the iPhone and what's been holding them back over the last year. Well, look, I think that you know, we downgraded Apple in August early August. We currently have one hundred and eighty nine dollars price target neutral rating, And you know, our concern at that time is that you had a combination of a muted growth trajectory really across much of the company, including the iPhone, certainly factoring prominently into that, and a high valuation. So that combination, in our mind was not compelling, not something you needed to be overweight on. I think the issue with the iPhone is the feature set, innovation and the consumer pocketbook and some question about China, and I think all of those things have you know, given us data points that are very supportive of the notion that you're in a very muted place right now for iPhone. And I think given that that's something like fifty percent of sales, very difficult for that stock to have a lot of excitement. I think if there's not a lot of excitement in the iPhone marton, the basic idea here I guess for the bulls is they're running it for profit. If you look at the Evada margin from COVID twenty nineteen, they've moved from twenty nine cents on the dollar up to thirty three cents in the dollar. Even if they get a Barton krack at sales lassitude. Can they maintain margins? You know? The company I think can maintain margins, you know, but I don't know that that's type of story, you know, nickel and diming margins, muted growth is something that's going to be really compelling at currently about twenty ape thirty PE when we downgrade it, I think the certainly, it's a great company. It's a good company that you could want to own at the appropriate price. But I think you've got to be price sensitive. I think it's a maturing company, and you can't buy it at any multiple, and you can't sit back and predict blue sky multiple expansion and perpetuity with this type of business as we see it right now. I look at the center tendency of a long term chart when you say a pullback, how much would that be if you do get some negative news out of China, et cetera. Is this from one to eighty down to one sixty, which is a center distribution? You know, certainly we would feel more comfortable with a healthy double digit return to our price target. You know, I do have some comfort with our estimates and with the street consensus. I do believe that you know, people have baked in the idea of a very muted iPhone. You know, this is a company you can own at the right price, but it's a mature company price. It's not a growth multiple. I think, Martin, is this an Apple problem or is this a big tech problem? More broadly, you know, I think this is much more Apple. I mean, we look at some other big tech companies in our coverage and we see a really great confluence of things developing lower interest rates, certainly supporting multiples, expansion, certainly favoring scarce growth, which you don't have it Apple, but you do have it things like Amazon, And I think there's been a reset in the Internet model. People have understood that you can run these businesses with much better margins, much more efficiently. You know. So while you're nickel and diming some mar improvement at Apple, you're seeing explosive margin improvement at Amazon, at Meta, Pinterest, at Spotify. You know, those that I think are much more interesting opportunities in this environment. I've never thought that people would say Pinterest in Spotify would trump Apple when it came to potential opportunities. Is it negative enough in your view for them to really drop out of the mag seven for this to be defined by a very different narrative that Apple is just not included in in twenty twenty four. Well, you know, I mean max seven certainly, that's kind of, you know, a term of art. I guess the thing with Apple is, I think it's a CpG company. I think that, you know, it's a company that you'd like to own at the right price, you know, in a certain macro environment where perhaps it's defensive, if the economy is slowing, maybe it's more interesting. But you don't need to be overweight Apple in every environment. You should pick and choose your places. I always wonder what the appropriate multiple on that name actually is. You've got the core good, the iPhone going ex grow, You've got a multiple that still looks pretty growthy as the revenue mix starts to shift towards services. I'm ordering from your perspective, what most part did you put on that business? Well, look, I mean I think that it's trading at about one point four times or so the market multiple. You know, I think a lesser premium is appropriate. You know, you can give it some premium given the strength of its franchise, the strength of its brand, the durability you know, the iPhone's not going away, and they've got good cash flow and good share repurchase. So to think that this could be a load image twenties multiple makes more sense to me than a thirty multiple. Bana, Thank you, sir for your insight. The update to a new year. Bona Crockett there of Rosenblat Securities. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern. Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app you can watch us live. I'm Bloomberg Television and always I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen and this is BloombergSee 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The word unprecedented became commonplace in banking circles in 2023. The Federal Reserve's rate hike campaign pushed bank balance sheets deeply underwater, spurred deposit outflows and exposed asset/liability mismatches at some institutions that culminated in record-breaking bank runs that led to the second, third and fourth largest bank failures in US history. Those closures and the liquidity crunch, regulatory response, market selloff and eventual recovery that followed changed the competitive landscape and the way bank observers view the industry. This episode features commentary from experts at BTIG, Davis Polk, Janney Montgomery Scott, KBW, Luse Gorman, Piper Sandler and others on the lessons learned from the liquidity crunch, the fallout afterward and the potential opportunities that lie ahead. 

Good morning from Pharma and Biotech Daily: the podcast that gives you only what's important to hear in the Pharma and Biotech world. Today, we have several developments in the industry to discuss.First, Structure, a biotech company focused on obesity treatments, experienced a setback. The results from a phase 2 trial of their obesity pill fell short of expectations, causing the company's shares to plummet. Similarly, Radiopharma's drug for prostate cancer did not meet analysts' predictions for its benefit, which could accelerate a planned takeover by Eli Lilly.In other news, Illumina has decided to part ways with Grail, ending their battle with regulators. Activist investor Carl Icahn, who is suing Illumina over its acquisition of Grail, continues to push for the removal of several board members. Additionally, Pivotal Life Sciences has reloaded with $389 million and is now hunting for deals in a downturn, tracking startups in the biotechnology sector that need fresh funds to move their programs forward.Moving on, Zimvie is selling its spine business to H.I.G. Capital for $375 million. This strategic move allows Zimvie to focus on its dental business and reduce its debt. BTIG analysts are optimistic that the medtech industry will rebound in 2024 after a "string of rough years," despite rising interest rates and concerns about the impact of GLP-1 drugs and supply chain issues.Glaukos has received FDA approval for its drug-releasing eye implant to treat glaucoma. This product has the potential to revolutionize glaucoma treatment by addressing noncompliance with eye drops. Freenome has also started a 20,000-subject study of its lung cancer blood test, which could provide an alternative to CT imaging and reduce radiation exposure.Moving on to the healthcare industry, Elevance and Blue Cross Blue Shield of Louisiana (BCBSLA) are reviving their proposed $2.5 billion merger after addressing regulatory concerns. The No Surprises Act's dispute portal has reopened as the CMS faces challenges in rolling out the policy. A lawsuit has been filed in New Jersey alleging that the state's telehealth licensure rules hinder access to care, especially for patients with rare conditions.Cybersecurity concerns remain as connected devices used in telemedicine enable real-time patient monitoring and advanced care. CMS has sent a letter urging health plans and PBMs to ease up on independent pharmacies before a new policy goes into effect.In the biopharmaceutical sector, Roivant has faced setbacks but remains focused on expanding its pipeline. Babson Diagnostics has received FDA clearance for its blood testing technology, bringing us closer to Theranos-like blood testing.Overall, these developments highlight the challenges and strategic decisions made by companies in the Pharma and Biotech industry. Stay tuned for more updates in our next episode. Thank you for listening to Pharma and Biotech Daily.

After the best month for stocks in nearly a year and a half, is there now enough reasons to get more bullish? Trivariate's Adam Parker and Hightower's Stephanie Link weigh in. Plus, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky is “betting on the losers” this month. He explains why. And, Paramount shares popped today. We tell you why Apple is responsible for that jump… and what it could mean for the rest of the media stocks. 

Major averages ended the week higher for their second straight positive week and the Nasdaq had its best day since May. Gentrust's Mimi Duff helps break down the market action while 3Fourteen's Warren Pies talks the move in oil. Council on Foreign Relations President Michael Froman on next week's APEC meeting and what could come out of sideline talks between President Biden and China's Xi Jinping. FICO CEO Will Lansing on the America consumer and spending levels heading into the holiday season. Matt Desch, Iridium CEO, on what's next for the company after Qualcomm ended its 10-month partnership. BTIG's Marie Thibault on the major moves in weight-loss drug companies. Plus, our Kate Rooney on the hottest new trend in investing: T-Bill & Chill.

Can seasonality spur stocks higher into year's end? Sofi's Liz Young and Veritas' Greg Branch give their expert forecasts. Plus, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky is charting out the key levels to watch in Nvidia. And, top chip analyst Stacy Rasgon breaks down what he is watching ahead of AMD results after the bell.

Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief US Economist, breaks down today's core PCE price index which showed that both inflation and consumer spending rose in September. Isaac Boltansky, BTIG Policy Research Director, predicts that the chaos in the House will lead to a shutdown later this year. Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Chief Investment Officer of Wealth Management, says that we've entered within 50 basis points of a peak in rates. Poonam Goyal & Anurag Rana, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analysts, discuss a big week in Big Tech earnings. Chris Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott Analyst, expects banks to set aside reserves to build confidence going into 2024. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance      FULL TRANSCRIPT:     This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Lisa A. Bromoids, along with Tom Keen and Jonathan Ferrell. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. We're waiting for the PC data. We're joined by Mike Nicky Aron the Deak. So we're waiting for the personal spending, the deflator. Mike, will it be disinflationary? Roll of the dice, that's the question. We're waiting for the numbers to come down on the Bloomberg Terminal. Well, I got about four seconds until that happens. But the ideas we may get a little more disinflation. Let's find out from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and here come the numbers. And we'll start with the inflation numbers. They come in hotter than anticipated, up four tenths of a percent. I don't know month over a month basis. For the headline, the core comes in up a three tenths which is about what was expected, although there was some leaning towards maybe a little lower number year over year. Now we see the PCE headline number at three point four percent, that's down from three to five, and the core comes in at three seven, down from three to nine. Both of those expected. All the people who like to dive into all those numbers and figure out what actually changed will be with us in a few seconds. Personal income up three tenths. That's lower than the prior month of four tenths gain, but also lower than what was anticipated a four tenths gain. Spending up seven tenths, I mean not strong. On the back of that, on the back of that GDP and the connginut well, this number is in the GDP because this is a September number. It was the third month of the quarter, so he kind of sort of backed out the numbers and anticipated that this would be fairly strong. We were up four tenths the prior month. The question is now do we continue to see that spending happen, Because if incomes are falling behind and they have been the spending levels over the last couple of months, that would suggest that maybe there's a pullback ahead. Now I'm not the expert here. There's one more there is, indeed, La Rain chief economists out with us this morning. First take, I think that we continue to see inflation coming down, but it's still uncomfortably It's still unacceptably high from the point of view of the Fed, and I think the conversation as we go into next year continues to the options for the Fed continue to narrow because if inflation stays about where it is and it's going to take a long time for it to get closer to too, their room to maneuver should the economy slow at all, is going to be very narrow. And look by these numbers, it looks like the economy is just still incredibly strong. We know that from the GDP numbers that we already got, but I mean the spending has just by the households that has defied every expectation of it to slow, and it's accelerated so much in the third quarter. That's what's extraordinary. I think savings rate comes in a three point four percent. People have been watching that for some indication of whether or not they're going to run out of money in the American consumer. It's down from four percent and it's been a steady decline. But historically, before the pandemic, we used to say people spend what they make. They don't dip into savings the way people tend to think they do. And so if that's the case, then there's more of a case now for maybe a slow down. People don't have as much to dip into if they wanted to, but they're also not making as much as they were. Well, I had johnat Henry with me this morning from HSBC and she said, actually Americans are more likely to dip into their savings and spend, spend, spend right to the very end. But I want to bring you an idea from UBS, which is Paul Donovan, where he said, you know, when we go to write the history of twenty twenties, do not bet against the headonism of the US consumer. It's very rich. I love it. I mean, there's a there's a brilliant wine place in London called Hedonism Wines. Whole other story the hedonism. You can tell us that later. I could tell you that later, but I want to understand from you laya the hedonism of the US consumer. Is that real or do you think that runs out of mileage as well. Next sure, listen, he's got a point. That's a really colorful way to put it. But that's what the third quarter felt like. Between the headlines about the concerts, Yeah, all of that, and then and all everyone who followed. I think, you know, people seem to be looking for that next experience and looking to pay whatever is required to get it. You know, this issue of savings has gotten so complicated because we of course have the excess savings that accumulated during the shutdown. Is that more you know, bucketed with these you know sort of now the highest quintile of quartile of household that sort of maybe aren't going to spend them as much. We know that that access savings is run out for a lot of the lower you know sort of strata. The other seventy five percent of us, we're not in that upper quintal. I think as we think about it, people, the normal people, I think, and yet you know, we just see the strong job growth I think reinforces the foundation of the household, and we just see this reacceleration is really unexpected in terms of your hedonism. Example, here services spending went up eight tenths whereas goods spending went up seven tents. There was always a story about people switching away from goods, but they still seem to be spending a lot on goods. Services don't go into the retail sales numbers that we got earlier this month, except for bars and drinking places fitting your theme, but eight tenths of a percent to gain for services pretty strong. So it looks like people were spending money during the third quarter on all sorts of things. I do think there's an interesting dynamic here, which is that if you look at consumer confidence, it's still well below where it was before the pandemic, and that's, you know, despite strong growth. So can you tie those two together. You know that the consumer confidence is being a little bit battered, but the spending it remains unabated. To me, it really, I think inflation is something that is still really casting a long shadow over the household, because you know, when I'm not here, I'm the mom at the grocery store and I've got one bag of groceries and it still cost me ninety five dollars and I can't figure out what's in it, you know, So I think you know this idea that your over year inflation is coming down, but the sticker shock is still a very real and present pain point to household budgets. And Coca Cola are raising prices, and Netflix are raising prices, and there are a Whole and Apple TV they're raising prices as well, and we are moderately immune to those. Do you know that you'll still order a Coca Cola? You'll still order You'll still order your Netflix movie. Mike Well, I was looking here to see if we get super Core. I haven't got that number pulled out yet, but that's the one that the Chairman of the Fed says he likes the most. See if we have that number calculated yet, because you got to take out and then the CPI number that had risen the most since you know, about a year, so it had. I think that's going to be a key piece of today's report too. Well, just looking at the bond market, it's virtually flat. I mean four eighty five is where we are on tenure government bonds. So there's a sort of a flat, sort of unknown entity within the bond market. Let's just check in on equities up for tenenths of one percent again, you've got an Amazon recovery and nice kicker there. It was up six percent at one juncture, giving a little bit back. You're looking at ten year years, just still incrementally rising. This morning at four eighty five, we just had Bmo in Lingen here with us saying look, the next three weeks will define where the endpoint is for the bond spike. Use oil is up one point ninety three percent this morning. Again there's more geopolitical anks with military action in Syria from the US side, and that has brought again a geopolitical bid back to the oil markets. But personal income rises zero point three percent. The estimate was for plus point four percent, So Mike this the takeaway from this is the core price index rises to three point seven percent, pretty much in line with the estimates. We're seeing disinflation, I mean O creative inflation is slowing down. It's not slowing down as perhaps fast as people would like. And to Lar's point, especially about the being the moment at the grocery store, prices go up at a slower rate, but they don't come down. So you're paying more for a lot of staples and they're going to just stay at that price. And so people look at that and they're still experiencing inflation, even if inflation is not as bad as it was before. What what happens then to this view in the market that we're going to get right cuts into twenty twenty four does not debate change. It's got to continue. The FED, I think now has to just continue to ring rate cut expectations out of that future's curve. I feel like this is the deal with the devil right now, because if you had told me that we were going to have GDP growth of almost five percent and the FED was not going to cut rates again, I would have just not believed that was a possible outcome. But FED future's markets are not pricing in another rate cut. Markets seem very convinced the Fed is done. And I think the only way that works is if we continue to get this drift higher in long term yields. And there's a room for that because today markets have seventy five basis points of rate cuts priced in for next year, So if the FED is going to kind of stay on hold, there's room for that to continue to come out, for long term rates to continue to move higher. How do you think they look at this in the Fed? In the Fed might give you look at this the top line is pce is it a four month high consumer spending picks up. It doesn't leave them that huge optionality to be very very dubbish, does it. They can just sit on this at the moment because they forecast in September, the last time they did forecast that we would see PCEE core at three point seven percent at the end of the year. Well, I'm with there bang on where we are. So most economists think with a couple of months to go, we're going to come in below that. So the Fed could argue its targets are being hit. And you mentioned Ian Ling, and he had a great note this morning about how we're starting to see more impacts from higher FED rates and that is slowly getting into the economy and we should see more. So the Fed is probably going to sit there and say what we're doing is working. We're at a level where inflation is still coming down. We don't have to go up more right now with all this uncertainty out there about what's going to happen. Well, and unless inflation is a nine percent there really is no emergency reason to raise rates. That's usually you know, not a thing. So they you know, to your point, they have the time and yet. To me, this increase in long term interest rates is the reason that they can be patient, and that is going to continue to sort of pump the brakes on activity. You know, when I look ahead at next year, my forecast is for slower growth. I think these higher interest rates have actually increased the chance of a recession, not decreased. Is that slower growth? No landing, soft landing, not hard landing. I think it has to be as soft landing. I still feel like there is very real risk of recession next year, and we cannot discount that. But all the reasons why we've been saying it might be a mild recession could also mean that you just end up with some sluggish growth. So, Mike, as we go to the close of the year, what's the next piece that you're going to hang your hat on in terms of dead We've got Michigan at University of Michigan. Yeah, I don't think that's going to move the needle a whole lot. But I think what we are going to focus on is all the data next week, particularly the ISM numbers and then jobs at the end of the week. The Fed meets on Wednesday, so they won't have the jobs figures, but at this point to get an idea of where they're going to go, and nobody is less than a two percent chance they do anything on Wednesday, but nobody expects that. But the question is then what happens January December, January, and the jobs report will contribute to that. That's what will be joining us is Isaac Boltanski, director of policy research at BTIG. Can you give us a sense, to Isaac, of just what kind of leader Mike Johnson is going to be? Can he find some sort of consensus within a very fractured party. I think the simple answer to that is now. I think I think that there are lots of folks who are breathing this deep sigh of relief because now there's someone with a gavel and we can begin handling the people's business again. But when you take a step back, you've got to see that the House Republican caucus is still deeply fractured. It's not clear how well they're going to be able to govern going forward. There's no semblance of bipartisanship anywhere on Capitol Hill, and frankly, Lisa I think that people are downplaying the risk associated with a prolonged government shutdown. I still think that is distinctly possible because we are nowhere, and I mean this nowhere when it comes to figuring out a way to fund the government and deal with all the supplemental funding requests that have been sent from the White House. There's a lot to impact there, and a lot of people have pushed backed against that and said that actually, the fact that we have a speaker makes it less likely that we will have a government shutdown. Are you disagreeing with that? Are you saying that basically this is just a window dressing over a pretty big fracture fissure in the Congress. In Congress, though, the unknown right now is how much of a honeymoon speaker the new speaker is going to get. But my sense when you start to look at some of the specific issues here and really hone in on things like Ukraine funded, or you take a step back and you look at the fact that we haven't even agreed on overall spending levels, I think it's incredibly difficult to believe that that this group is going to be able to easily avert a shutdown. My base case is that we are going to see a shutdown later this year. I don't think that's going to be a massive market moving event, but I do think that the getting the gabble to Speaker Johnson has lessened fears in the market, and that that's unfounded at this point. So the President wants a total of what one hundred and sixty two billion dollars from Congress across Ukraine, Israel, supplemental spending, et cetera. How contentious is this going to be? How much of a flashpoint is this going to be? Will it all be cojoin? Will it just be a great dissipation of this request. So first and foremost, they haven't even agreed on basic funding levels yet, right, so we're not even at a point of agreement over the normal funding levels, and that's going to be the fight for the next few weeks when we then dig into the supplementals, where you do have over one hundred billion in different ass I think that there is clearly political support for things like funding Israel and supporting Israel and it's battle with Hamas. I think that fourteen billion dollars is very likely to get done. There's clearly support for more money at the US southern border. I think that that's bipartisan and by Camel on Ukraine, it's going to be a little bit tougher. And note that this is something that the News Speaker has actually fought against in the past. Last night he did suggest that there is a way to move forward on Ukraine funding, but that they're going to have to be conditions attached to that. No one knows what those conditions are yet. Put it all together, and I think that there is a way forward on this spending package. I just think that we're going to have to go through the same type of pain that we were seeing before when Speaker McCarthy lost the gap. How long do you think this speaker lasts or do you think he is there for the duration? So what of the first things he's going to have to do is try to get rid of that motion to vacate which pulled Kevin McCarthy out of the chair. I think that this speaker has a decent runway to get into first quarter of next year at a minimum. My conversation suggests that there's a real focus on at least getting to April of next year. As a reminder, that's when the one percent across the board. Budget cuts will go into effect if Congress does not pass the twelve appropriation spills. So I think that that's the date that a lot of people have circled on their calendar just trying to make it to that point. So, Isaac, how do you deal with the fact that you are in a situation where the interest that the government has to pay continues to go up? Where does that fall in these budgetary arguments? No one seems to talk about it, but it's on the rise. So if we can't cut the budget at all to do what we want to do, how are we dealing with spending that we now are compelled to do. That's one of the most frustrating parts of the past three weeks is that we weren't talking about the real issues. We weren't talking about the thirty three trillion in debt, we weren't talking about the two trillion deficit we're running this year. We weren't talking about the seven hundred billion dollars it costs US just this year to fund our deficits. And so I think that I remain deeply disheartened because we're not having those conversations, and more broadly, no one, no one, No one cares about the deficit when they're in the majority. They only care about the deficit when they're in the minority. And so until we see something that shocks DC tou to the point where it's forced to think about the debts and deficit differently, it's going to be status quo business as usual. How do you force someone to take a look at their own balance sheet and say, your payment next year is going to be double what your payment was this year, and you couldn't afford your payment this year. Why do we not? Why is that not part of the conversation. I know nobody wants to have it when they're in the majority. Nobody wants to not spend because everybody wants they get there, has a million things they want to spend on. But it's sort of like no one is dealing with the elephant in the room, no pun intended, which is the fact that we've got all this spending that still has to come through on this And I find that particularly frustrating in general. So I just how do we get to that conversation? You should run for office, come on down here and try to try to figure it out. But look, We're going to have a real, real fight over this with the Trump tax cuts expiring. You've got trillions of dollars in tax cuts that are coming due in twenty twenty five from the expiration of the Trump tax cuts, and I think that that could be a forcing mechanism for a broader conversation, but it's going to depend who's in power, right and sot. The next hurdle is to understand who's ahead in the elections. How much is Jennet Yellen's idea the mainstream that yields are going to go back down once we get past this blip, and that higher yields in the US is not a reflection of deficits but really just a reflection of how strong the US economy is. Is that the main idea and belief in Washington, DC. It's the hope of many on Capitol Hill. I don't think that there is anyone who has a firm feel for where yields are going, surely not on Capitol Hill. But it is definitely the hope at this point that everything will fix itself. Because our politics are so broken, they're unable to fix the problems, and so there is a hope that that's the direction that's going, Lisa. But I don't think anyone has a firm feeling one way or the other. Hope is not a strategy. I just keep thinking about that. Isaac Boltanski of BTIG, thank you so much for being with us. Joining us now is Lisa Shallatt CIO at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, And Lisa, I just want to start with have we sold off enough? Because I know you've been bearished, particularly on tech. Has this been a big enough sell off for you? Look, we're not interested in getting in here unless you're a trader. What we, you know, tend to point our clients to is being investors, being long term investors. And you know, our perspective is going has been that we're going to continue to trade in this bear market range, which is where we've been for two years. I mean, people have to pull out their telescope and look at where we've been. You look at the s and P five hundred. We were here in the summer spring of twenty twenty one, and so you know, this is a trader's market right now. We don't think we break out of this range of somewhere around forty two forty five hundred really until the middle of next year, and that's when the fog clears on whether or not we're really going to see growth reaccelerate or we're going to see us you know, probabilities of recession increase. And we've been in the camp that we're going to be in that second scenario where next year economic growth, particularly in the second half, disappoints. I mean, look at the third quarter GDP, we're doing nominal eight percent. What kind of a cop year over year is that going to be in the second half next year. It's a great point. You said that this is a trader's market when it comes to equities. Is it also a trader's market when it comes to bonds. You've been bullish on longer term bonds at a time where there's a feeling that maybe this selloff has legs and actually is fundamentally driven, including by how much the US has to finance. Yeah. I mean, look, our perspective is that we are probably within fifty basis points of a peak in rates, and that having clients begin to embrace this market lock in some of these coupons with the potential for rates on a cyclical basis to reset, creates a double digit return with a third of the volatility. So again, as as as UH you know investors, we think that that the buy and hold on some of these bonds UH is a good value proposition. But I think here too, there's a lot of volatility, and that means you've got to be a trader if you're going to be uh, you know, in this market looking for returns on the month or on the quarter. Lisa, good morning, it's manas. I think that's one of the most honest interpretations. You're not prepared to step and buy into this market in a trading market that we've heard in quite a while. But there is the other side, which is you either view that you've got to build some kind of defense, and I'm drawn to your view that you want real assets and you want gold. Gold is nearly a two thousand dollars and so are you actively adding more real assets than if you're not convinced on pure equity. We are adding and encouraging folks to add some real assets here. I mean, one of our themes has been that, you know, the equity markets in particular are just not pricing real risk premiums. And you know, one of the things that has, you know, given us has been heartening to us is the fact not only are we getting higher real rates in the bond market, but that there's a term premium that suddenly people realize that in a new inflation and in a new interest rate regime where the FED is going to be data dependent, there is lumpiness and there is uncertainty over time about how that data is going to come out. Add in all the geopolitical dimensions to what's going on right now, the dimensions of dysfunction in Washington, d C. The fact we're rolling into an election year in the US where I think that the headlines and the developments are going to be extraordinarily volatile. Our view is that real assets, things like commodities, things like real estates, things like energy, infrastructure assets could really, you know, be a source of protection here in stability in portfolios. We just had in Lincoln here from BMO. We talked about a number of different things that could drive the bond market, term premium being one, fiscal deficit's being another. He thinks that the peak, the peak spike in rates could be over the next couple of weeks. Would you agree with that, and if so, what part of the bond market. Would you like to take a portion off or add to if you're adding real commodities, what would you add in duration? Yeah, we're we're looking at Our perspective is that the best value right now is really intermediate, somewhere between four to six. We're finding some value in sevens in the treasury market in fact, but we're looking at investment and great corporate, so you know, we're taking the treasury yield and taking some of that spread. We do believe that there are quality balance sheets out there that can service you know, these coupons. So we're we're enthusiastic that the middle of the curve could produce double digit returns over the next you know, twelve to eighteen months. Lisa, I'm curious about this really different reaction when it's come to this geopolitical these devastating geopolitical events. Normally we would see US yields plunge in the face of this, and we had that reaction. But you know, you blinked and you missed it. We're right back up again. Does that represent a more fundamental reassessment of treasuries as a risk free asset? You know, you were going into this government shutdown again, an episode which historically has given us lower yields, and we sort of shrug it off. Is this time going to be different because people are fundamentally reassessing the dollar as a flight to quality and the result treasures. Yeah, I mean, I love that you're bringing up this issue. I mean, this is one of the issues that we talk about with our clients all the time because it is our sense that something fundamental is going on and that the appetite for US treasury debt is different this time. Clearly, you know, the market is readjusting to not having the FED as a price and sensitive buyer, right, we know that, and and QT is certainly a weight here. But you know, you look at what's going on among Japanese investors. They're facing the realities of a tough currency compare and really tough hedging costs in terms of their ability to buy treasuries in the size that they have been buying really over the last decade. The geopolitical dimensions of this, you know, historically, we know China has has been a big buyer given their you know, trade balances and foreign currency reserves and US dollars. Uh, there's a lot of complexity UH, and a lot I believe to question about why we haven't seen that flight to safety UH manifest as it historically has in US treasuries. I do think that this is something we need to watch and study and really think hard about about whether or not something is changing and whether the US treasury market is vulnerable to geopolitics for the first time, maybe since World War Two. Lisa Chalatte Morgan Stanley Wealth mentioned it is clear cut that when people are spending on clothes, Amazon does well. But that seems to be what we experienced yesterday in the Earth, straining us now to really pass through it. Anor A Karana and Punam Goyle of Bloomberg Intelligence covering the tech and the retail side of things. Anag, I want to start with you, are we basically just learning that Microsoft is taking the lead when it comes to cloud computing and Amazon and Google are falling behind. See I'm a big fan about Microsoft's down over the years, but I would not say that they are leading here. I would just say that in the Genai, you know, Frenzy, they just have a leg up because of their relationship with open Ai. But Amazon is still the biggest cloud out there. They have more, yeah, I would say revenue than anybody else. That's partially the reason why their relative growth rates are not as strong. But last night's comments on the conference call were so positive and I think that's what's driving the stock up here. Before that, the stock was flat, and you know, it was just the positive I would say body language of the management team that you know, the cloud bottom may be here for them. Okay, who's got the strongest who has the strongest cloud offering, and who will win the most market share? Well, Amazon's far bigger in terms of you know, revenue, the revenue boundard is closer to ninety billion dollars compared to Microsoft, which is closer to sixty billion, and with Google somewhere around twenty four to twenty five billion. So Amazon's clearly the leader with the biggest network and biggest footprint. But let's bring you into the conversation here. This has been a brutal week. At one junction, we lost two hundred billion dollars in market cap of some of these biggest and most loved, most owned stocks in the US. As you go to the close of the week, there was a brutalization of stocks that disappointed on Clyde, But the one thing that stood out to me is that there are these tech companies and they are raising prices. How does that play into your thinking? Yeah, I think on the retail side, Amazon actually has done a great job in maintaining its share and even growing it. You know, when you talk about raising crisis, do then in flee. I think it's quite the opposite at Amazon. You're actually seeing them push forward low crisis, especially on those deal days that they have, like Prime Days, and that's driving the consumer spend. We're expecting Amazon to use it scale and speed to really push the pedal on prices even more as we go through the holiday season, and that's going to drive consumers to their platform, allowing them to go gain share over competitors. Plunum advertising revenue has been growing at a double digit clip based on what two hundred million global Prime subscribers were able to get an early WED on that Prime Video ads edition. I think the ad edition is going to take time to build right now. The bulk of that advertising revenue is driven from the retail side, and I think that's really key here that's going to continue to climb. And remember that advertising is a much more profitable business than the retail business and even the cloud business. So as that business scales beyond fifty billion, which it's trending to right now, it's going to drive the bottom line for Amazon. And that edition of the ads that you're talking about, I think that's just icing on the cake. I mean, that's really going to also help build revenues for Amazon and allow customers to choose do they want the ads or do they want the content without the ads where they would have to pay attlefore that. And you're right, we've now digested earnings from Alphabet, Meta, Intel, IBM, you name it. You know, what are the primary takeaways from you from three third quarter performance? I think if we are not very close to the bottom, you know, we have probably a quarter or two away, and I think that really sets up well for a big rebound in twenty twenty four. And I think this was the biggest fear that we have that what's going to happen beginning of next year with geopolitical conditions getting worse. And I think last night's results and even Microsoft's comments give us some hope that things are not as bad as you know, you know, people are making out to be. It does raise a question though, about the differentiation on rog within the cloud space, within the AI space, and whether companies are being reward for investing in some of the AI intelligence AI programming that could make a lot of money. Did you get the sense that Amazon was rewarded more on that front than Google. See. One of the biggest thing I think it's the scale matters now, And you have to remember most enterprises around the world fortune two thousand companies are going to experiment with this technology over the next twelve to twenty four months. Who are they going to go to. All these companies have the building blocks for people to experiment, So I'm not saying one's going to win over the other. All three of them are going to get their fair share of revenue from the clients. The problem is on the other side, they actually don't have enough GPU capacity to go out and build some of that AI workloads or training models and other things. But I'm fairly confident that over the next twelve for twenty four months, all three of them are going to see some benefit from Jenai. Who's got the ability to deliver the best margins. You note that revenue grew by twelve percent of aws, but the margin jump by third thirty percent. Who else is at thirty percent or beating that? Or is that where the aspiration is to deliver stronger margins? Is that part of the buy thesis. So one of the things we have talked about, think about all the three companies in the long run. Now the long run could be five years or ten years. These businesses have potential to grow operating margins north of forty percent. Now that's the reason why we say that is if you look at you know, processing companies and other things, when they reach maturity stage, these are highly scalable business Once you you know, go through the cycle of capax, you don't really require that much money to maintain them. We are confident in the the long run all three of them will have great margins. The other two companies don't really disclose it at the cloud level, at that infrastructure level, but to that extent, I mean, I mean, frankly, alphabet is still losing money in their cloud portfolio. But there is a lot of different things that go into that. Put on what's the takeaway that we've gotten in terms of these earnings about how much retailers in the US continue their hedonistic tendencies. Yeah, I thank you for the retailers. It's going to be mixed. As we moved through holiday, there is going to be clear winners and losers. And we do think that the consumer is really focused on value and that trend isn't going away for the holiday season, so they're going to have to suction the pedal on price and inventories aren't as high as they were last year, so it's really going to depend on their ability to bring product in to drive demand and really keep prices well the holiday season. Un I'm Gail on our grounda both of you. Thank you so much for being with us. One aspect of the market that's kind of flown under the radar is the regional banks in particular, especially as we talk about the big banks and the successors and all of that, and we could see that so far you're to date the BKX, the KBX KBW index is down twenty five percent, close to the lows that we saw during the crisis back in March. Now is Chris Marinac, director of research at Jenny Montgomery Scott. And I know Chris that you've been really bullish on the banking sector and I want to get your take on what you make of the selloff that has persisted. Well. I think, Lisa, there's been some continued struggles about the fears of credit quality getting worse in twenty twenty four. I think that there's been some passive flows against the banks. I've heard of a lot of folks shorting the KRX and the KRE and then going along in the Nasdaq one hundred, So that has been a challenge in terms of incremental selling. I think to some extent, the banks are not sexy here and they're not doing anything from a growth perspective that causes investors to dive in. And I think most of the fun flows has been to other growth areas and other areas that are kind of avoiding anything that's economically sensitive and perhaps recession recession proNT So have you gotten less bullish on this area because we have seen a bit of underperformance versus expectations, particularly in the regional space, and there isn't a clear pathway to growth. Well, the stocks have an opportunity to trade back to forty five to forty seven on the KRE. I think the question is can we get investors to pay attention to what really matters, which is cash flow. The operating cash flow for most banks is only down about ten percent from the August estimate's pre third quarter earnings, and so I think the other ninety percent of PP and R is actually very strong to allow banks to earn through the cycle on credit issues and anything that comes their way. I think their capacity to absorb losses is extremely good, and that's one of the reasons I've thought the stocks have opportunities to do better. I don't think we'll go back to where we would have been on the KRE pre Silicon valley, but I do think we can be better than we are, and I think we have to get through this recession discounting that the market is doing at the moment. Yeah, we are pretty obsessed with the recession dis kind in it just hasn't come home Durus yet, Chris good Morning. Provisioning was something that stood out for me as being on the low side in this reporting season. Of course, if there is no dramatic slow dying and there is no hard landing, then that's all justified that The acinting reason, do you think twenty twenty four is going to be madred by an increase a material increase in provisioning, and if so, word does it hurt the most. So I think that the provisions will rise in twenty four primarily because I think charge offs will go up. We have a lot of companies who are writing off fifteen to twenty basis points of charge offs, which is very very low. So going back to thirty or forty basis points for most mid sized banks is normal. I think your large national companies probably right off between forty five and fifty, so that's a little higher than the forty range that they are today, So that will cause provision to rise. I think generally most banks are going to set aside reserves to kind of build confidence with themselves. Clearly, the accounting on SECOIL has led banks to actually limit their reserve growth this quarter, less than I would have fought. I think to some extent it is driven by unlimited balance sheet growth and also the Moody's forecast that a lot of banks use has actually pushed out the recession, and that is also tamped down the reserve calculations. I mean, you think the consensus is obviously JP Morgan just keeps getting bigger. It's just like this juggernaut that just swallows everything and moves everything out of its way. You've listened to the conference calls, You've listened to a couple of these CEOs. Who's under most pressure in the banking sphere? I know I have my target list, But who do you think is under the most pressure as the CEO at the moment? Well, I think there are regional banks who have capital ratios that are depressed when you take the mark to market for all securities, both for the available for sale and held the maturity, So that issue has to be resolved. I think to some extent, banks will work out of their issues on their own because securities are going to start maturing in four and twenty five and to some extent these marks start to flatten out. We don't have to see FED policy chains for the marks to get better. I think somebody think that some of the payoffs of securities coming due at maturity will help. I think the pressure is on the regional banks who are going to have these new FED accounting rules, which basically means who ratios are lower than they're reported, And even though it's phased in over a three year period, the market just perceives that they have to adopt those capital rules today, so to some extent, I think we have to fight through that. The good news is the banks are profitable, they can pay dividends. There's no changes happening on some of those major items like common and preferred dividends. So I think the attitude for the investors should be better than it is. But I think the pressure is really on the regional banks where the definition is changing on capital. I do think will work through it, but that continues to be the pressure point at the moment. So does that mean that we have to extend the BTFP and do you believe that they will extend that we don't have to extend it. It It would be nice to extend because it simply takes one issue off the table. The use of BTFP has been very limited. It's hovering around one hundred and nine billion for weeks and weeks, and so the banks who have used it have used it. Some may renew if given the opportunity, but if they don't, I don't think it's a big problem. It would be nice to do that. It would be nice to have some FDIC deposit insurance reform to be able to buy insurance on uninsured depositors. I'm not sure the FDIC is going to go there, so that would be my thought on that. So it sounds like the regional banks have a maturity profile that's not as dire as I think some of us were worried about. But I think about some of the assets that are sitting there. Are the regional banks kind of stuck like utilities where I'm in a flat yield curve, so I don't have a lot going on there. I have some things I may have to write off, but I just don't see a lot of growth ahead of me. And they don't have the diversification of some of the money center banks. Well, I actually think the diverse location is actually very good. I mean, you have office real estates very limited, even commercial real estates very limited. Within the C and I space, there's a lot of different mid size and small businesses that regional banks and even community banks do and provide a great service for that. The economy is healthier than I think folks realize. But even if it changes, the ability for companies to earn through is very good. What we see happening is actually less balance sheet growth but more turnover old loans that are at low yields, renewing at high yields. A new loan today is going on the books at eight percent, and that actually is very attractive, and it's going to cosset the mix to shift on netatrist margin. We think margins may actually bottom in the first quarter, if not sooner, and that will help the stocks. I think catch a little bit of a bid. Chris, just real quick here, final word on Ted Pick the idea of some of the succession at Morgan Stanley. Is it significant in terms of the direction of that bank or do you think that it's basically going to be a continuing of the guard. Well, the investment banking business is the highest margin business of these large international firms, so it didn't surprise me at all that he was the choice. I think that his leadership inside the company has been very well thought of for a long time, so it seemed to make sense. I think to some extent they want to put the best foot forward, not to be negative on the wealth management space, because it's certainly a huge driver. They picked up a lot of new customers from the First Republic failure in April and May, so there's a lot happening there. But it seemed to be kind of continuing on the investment banking Angela Chris Marrinac of Jenny Montgomery Scott. Thank you so much. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Lisa Abramowitz, and this is BloombergSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jonathan Krinsky, who holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation,  is a Managing Director and Chief Market Technician at BTIG. Before joining BTIG, Mr. Krinsky was the Chief Market Technician at Bay Crest Partners, MKM Partners and Miller Tabak & Company. Earlier in his career, he held a role within the Equity and Derivatives Sales & Trading Group at Miller Tabak & Company.Jonathan provides clients with actionable technical commentary on U.S. and global equities, commodities, interest rates and currencies. Jonathan looks at the market on a global basis, taking into account inter-market relationships, sentiment and seasonality, in addition to traditional technical indicators based on price. Jonathan is a regular contributor on Financial Sense, Bloomberg, CNBC, Seeking Alpha, and MarketWatch. He graduated from Penn State University. Fill the Gap, hosted by David Lundgren, CMT, CFA and Tyler Wood, CMT brings veteran market analysts and money managers onto a monthly podcast. For complete show notes of every episode, visit: https://cmtassociation.org/development/podcasts/ Give us a shout:@dlundgren3333 or https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-lundgren-cmt-cfa-63b73b/@_TBone_Pickens or https://www.linkedin.com/in/tyler-wood-cmt-b8b0902/@CMTAssociation orhttps://www.linkedin.com/company/cmtassociationCMT Association is the global credentialing authority committed to advancing the discipline of technical analysis in the financial services industry. We serve members in over 137 countries. Our mission is to elevate investors mastery and skill in mitigating market risk and maximizing return in capital markets through a rigorous credentialing process, professional ethics, and continuous education. CMT Association formed in the late 1960s with headquarters in lower Manhattan, NY and Mumbai, India.Learn more at: www.cmtassociation.org

Is this month going to live up to its billing and will mega caps like Apple might be more vulnerable than you think? Trivariate's Adam Parker, Hightower's Stephanie Link and CNBC's Steve Kovach give their expert takes. Plus, we drill down on the beige book, ISM data and all of today's Fed speak with CNBC's Steve Liesman and Mike Santoli. And, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky is taking a look at restaurant performance as we start September. 

What does today's report from Nvidia really mean for your money in the weeks ahead? Adam Parker from Trivariate, Bryn Talkington from Requisite Capital and Stephanie Link of Hightower break down their expert forecasts. Plus, Morgan Stanley's Erik Woodring says Apple is now the most under-owned large cap tech stock by institutional investors. And, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky breaks down the key levels he is watching and what he's forecasting for stocks for the rest of the year. 

Episode Notes The U.S. expects visitor numbers from some major markets such as Canada and India to exceed pre-Covid levels this year. However, Brand USA CEO Chris Thompson says that progress won't be enough to make up for the large-scale absence of Chinese visitors, writes Global Tourism Reporter Dawit Habtemariam.  Thompson said in an interview with Skift that the U.S. won't experience a full tourism recovery unless it attracts more Chinese tourists. China represented the U.S.' largest tourism market prior to the pandemic. Thompson said Beijing's refusal to lift the ban on overseas group travel for its citizens has impacted visitor numbers to the U.S. He added that West Coast destinations such as Los Angeles have been hit hard by the absence of Chinese travelers.  Thompson also touched on what Brand USA is doing with the $250 million it received in federal funds to help boost international tourism. The organization used the funding to launch “This Is Where It's At,” its largest ever single consumer campaign. It's running in 10 out of Brand USA's 11 markets, with the exception of China.   Next, a newly published financial report said that the Expedia Group may be showing resilience against rival Booking.com in the U.S., reports Executive Editor Dennis Schaal.   An analysis from global financial services firm BTIG listed reasons why Expedia Group may have blunted Booking.com's market share gains. Schaal writes Expedia likely saw a faster increase in room nights than Booking.com. He adds that signs suggest that Expedia outperformed Booking.com in the U.S. He notes that's important because Booking Holdings sees the U.S. as a relatively untapped market where it has ample room to grow.  BTIG estimated that 60% of the Expedia Group presence is centered in the U.S.  Finally, artificial intelligence has fundamentally altered the travel industry in recent years. Associate Editor Rashaad Jorden explains how, using answers provided by Ask Skift, our artificial intelligence chatbot.  Ask Skift listed four areas where AI has significantly impacted travel, including predicting travel demand and providing personalized customer service. One travel executive said AI will likely uncover signals about travel demand from unlikely sources of information.  In addition, Jorden reports travel brands are using AI to customize travel itineraries, enabling them to increase customer loyalty. Amazon Web has already used AI to make personalized recommendations for travelers, including suggesting hotels that matched their interests. 

Can a stealth pullback centered on select mega-caps be enough to refresh the summer rally? Or is a tougher gut check is due as August unfolds? Trivariate's Adam Parker and Citi's Kristen Bitterly give their take. Plus, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky is getting bullish on energy. He explains why. And, Gabriela Santos of JP Morgan's gives her forecast for the fed. 

Will tomorrow's jobs report seal the fate for more Fed hikes this year? And what might that mean for markets? Tony Pasquariello of Goldman Sachs gives his take. Plus, Big Technology's Alex Kantrowitz breaks down what's at stake as Meta's threads launches to take on Twitter. And, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky is flagging one sector that has underperformed this year that he says could bounce back in a big way. 

While many banks are being unfairly painted with a broad brush, institutions will face tougher regulatory examinations and pressure on probability and that should ultimately lead to a strong rebound in bank M&A activity. Those views were delivered by members of the investment and advisory community during two panel discussions focused on bank liquidity that S&P Global Market Intelligence hosted on May 18. The panels featured Ben Azoff, partner at Luse Gorman; Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at BTIG; Bill Burgess, co-head of financial services investment banking at Piper Sandler; Greg Hertrich, head of U.S. depository strategies at Nomura; Jonah Marcus, partner and portfolio manager at Endeavour Capital; and Chris McGratty, head of US bank research at KBW. In the episode, we discuss the highlights of the panels with fellow moderator, Joe Mantone, the head of S&P Global Market Intelligence's US FIG News team and the host of The Pipeline: M&A and IPO Insights. The panelists offered their view of bank valuations, whether institutions should consider repositioning bond portfolios, takeaways from recent regulatory examinations and the outlook for M&A activity. Click below to access The Pipeline. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pipeline-m-a-and-ipo-insights/id1670488947

Home Depot kicks off a busy week for retail earnings. BofA Securities' Liz Suzuki breaks down her expectations for the report. Plus, President Biden meets face-to-face with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy today in order to craft a spending deal that would avoid a U.S. debt default. BTIG's Isaac Boltansky discusses the latest. And, several company executives will testify before Congress today on the regulation of artificial intelligence. CDO Today's Salema Rice weighs in on the outlook.

We break down the earnings call. Post-Class recommendations are rolling out on iOS.  The Tread celebrates its 5th anniversary. Peloton is hosting a Mother's Day event.   Peloton Apparel had a Mother's Day Post.  Peloton is looking for mother/child stories.   Dr. JumpRope looks to set a world record on a Peloton.   Judge shuts down class action suit over past purges.   Dr. Jenn -  Striking a balance between “have-to” and “want to.”  Mariana Fernandez is coming to the Tread.   Emma Lovewell was on CBS This Morning.  Emma was also featured in Elle Magazine.   Emma also has partnered with Michiru.   Becs came in 2nd at the NYRR Shape + Health Women's Half Marathon.   Susie Chan was on the Runners World UK Podcast.   Susie not only FINISHED bad water but came in in the top 10.   Cody Rigsby is participating in PopSugar's Play/Ground event.   Bradley Rose was on the Marketing Unfiltered.   Christine was keynote speaker at United Way luncheon.   Robin attended BTIG commission for charity day and met Bill Clinton.   Robin also explained Swagger Points…kinda.   Robin was on CNBC.   Jenn Sherman posted a flashback to her first Peloton photo shoot.   Jeffery McEchern ran a half marathon.   Angelo - What's the best way to eat post-workout? Amazon has ended Halo.   This Week At Peloton.   Sam Yo is teasing something unique for his Star Wars ride.   Jess King has release part one of her EDMEDU series.   Marcel Maurer posted fun balance challenge . Birthdays - Susie Chan (May 10).                                                           All this plus our interview with Dr. Mark Shapiro!    Love the show? Subscribe, rate, review, and share! https://www.theclipout.com/   Copyright 2023 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What is the right call right now – to be bullish or bearish? Trivariate's Adam Parker and Citi's Kristen Bitterly break down their takes. Plus, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky is tracking trouble in the charts. He explains the key levels every investor needs to be watching. And, Bank of America's Jill Carey Hall is changing her tune on small caps in a big way.

Investors are struggling to sort of the likely economic toll of the banking crisis – are Yellen and Powell sending mixed messages to the market? Our all-star panel of Joe Terranova of Virtus, BNY Mellon Wealth Management's Alicia Levine and Greg Branch of Veritas Financial Group break down their forecast for the market. Plus, Jefferies analyst Trevor Williams explains what's at stake for Block after Hindenburg Research announced it was adding the company to its short list. And, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky drills down on the key levels to watch – and why investors may not want to trust the bounce in stocks. 

Can Apple's breakout continue and is it a sign that the rally can too? BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky gives his take. Plus, shares of Snap surged in today's session as lawmakers are preparing legislation to ban TikTok here in the U.S. Akex Kantrowitz of Big Technology and Casey Newton of Platformer weigh in on what could be at stake. And money manager Emily Roland of John Hancock is raising the red flag on what she is calling the biggest mistake being made on Wall Street.

Stocks had an ugly day – with investors weighing some serious money risks. Trivariate's Adam Parker gives his forecast for stocks. Plus, star investor Keith Meister breaks down his market strategy – and where he's making some big bets. And, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky is drilling down on the key levels every investor needs to be watching.

Sofi's Liz Young reacts to all of the late-day selling in today's session. Plus, this morning BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky put out a note saying stocks could be at a turning point. He explains why and what it could mean for investors. And, B is for “bottom?” – Hightower's Stephanie Link debates if the lows are in for Alphabet. 

How bad could it get for your money at a time when many investors were planning for a year-end rally? Cantor Fitzgerald's Eric Johnston gives his forecast. Plus, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky charts today's sell-off. And, EMJ's Eric Jackson breaks down the tech trade after the Nasdaq fell 3%.

In a decision with enormous potential implications, a unanimous three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit has ruled that the manner in which the CFPB is funded violates the Appropriations Clause of the U.S. Constitution. After reviewing the decision, we discuss: the CFPB's strategic options for next litigation steps; the decision's potential impact on existing regulations and ongoing rulemakings, ongoing and future enforcement litigation and investigations, and consent orders; and possible legislative fixes and the likelihood of bipartisan support. Alan Kaplinsky, Senior Counsel in Ballard Spahr's Consumer Financial Service Group, leads the discussion, joined by John Culhane, Richard Andreano, and Michael Gordon, partners in the Group.

The most valuable crypto stories for Friday, Sept. 23, 2022."The Hash" hosts discuss the bankrupt crypto lender Celsius Network as it appears to be considering a plan to turn its debt into crypto “IOU” (“I Owe You”) tokens. Plus, what Compute North's bankruptcy filing means for giants like Marathon Digital, as a BTIG analyst downgrades the stock from buy to neutral.See also: Celsius Network Might Be Planning to Turn Its Debt Into Crypto ‘IOU' TokensCelsius Shareholders File to Stake Their Claim for Bankruptcy PayoutsCompute North Files for Bankruptcy as Crypto-Mining Data Center Owes up to $500MUtah Man Charged With 7 Felonies in Connection to Alleged $1.7M Crypto Mining Scam-This episode has been edited by Michele Musso. Our executive producer is Jared Schwartz. Our theme song is “Neon Beach.”-I.D.E.A.S. 2022 by CoinDesk facilitates capital flow and market growth by connecting the digital economy with traditional finance through the presenter's mainstage, capital allocation meeting rooms and sponsor expo floor. Use code HASH20 for 20% off the General Pass. Register now: coindesk.com/ideasSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Frank Holland and the Investment Committee debate whether this market rally is a sign of a new bull market or just a bear market rally. Plus, we discuss the historic inflation reduction bill just pass in the Senate, what will it mean for buybacks and shareholders? And later, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky joins us to discuss some key levels for the S&P you should watch out for.

Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee discuss the huge comeback from Mega Cap stocks and whether it can keep going. Plus, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky joins us to discuss Apple's relative strength vs the S&P. The Committee weigh in. And later, Paramount beats earnings, Jim Lebenthal is a believer in the stock, the Committee debate what to do from here.

Melissa Lee and the Investment Committee debate whether the recent run is a bear market rally or something more meaningful. BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky joins us to explain why he thinks the market is setup to go lower this Summer. Plus, BMO's Brian Belski says why communication stocks are due for a rebound. And later, the Investment Committee weighs in on some big earnings after the bell.