Podcast appearances and mentions of chris whalen

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down the week across mortgages, rates, and precious metals. He opens with United Wholesale Mortgage, explaining why he believes Matt Ishbia should resign after the company hedged the balance sheet of an acquisition target it didn't own and never won — a misstep that produced a six hundred million dollar loss and forced a rescue from Oak Tree on onerous terms that leave common shareholders at the back of the line. Chris contrasts that with Rocket's standout quarter and lays out his broader housing view: investment banks hold this market together until the IPO fees are booked, then step back, setting up a potential correction next year and a general decline in home prices of ten to twenty percent by 2028. From there the conversation turns to the return of financial repression — short-end yields pushed down while the long end reacts to deficits and inflation — and why, with debt approaching forty trillion, he considers Fed independence a fiction and the Treasury the dog to the Fed's tail. Chris also unpacks the Bank of Japan's thirty-day repo with the Fed, why it lit a fire under gold and silver, and David Kotok's idea of using euro-denominated US credit default swaps to benchmark gold. He closes on taxing wealth over income, the erosion of fiscal credibility, and his gold book research into thirteen hundred years of Byzantine monetary stability.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcoverUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 — Intro1:08 — Why Matt Ishbia should resign from UWM2:30 — The Oak Tree rescue and what it means for shareholders3:31 — Mortgage earnings: PennyMac, loanDepot, Rocket4:23 — Is UWM going to be sold?5:43 — Health of the broader mortgage industry6:50 — Seven percent rates and where volume is coming from7:30 — What the Fed does next, and the long end8:20 — "Misery on the eights" — is the timeline accelerating?9:20 — Housing correction: 10–20% by 202810:40 — The return of financial repression12:00 — Why the Treasury benefits, and the shift to T-bills13:06 — "The Treasury is the dog, the Fed is the tail"13:40 — The dollar, foreign central banks, and gold reserves14:20 — The Bank of Japan repo transaction explained15:14 — What Warsh does if the FOMC wants a hike16:30 — Inflation, diesel exports, and the energy squeeze17:34 — David Kotok on benchmarking gold with credit default swaps18:40 — Why fiscal fear flows into gold19:30 — How far away is a US debt restructuring?21:04 — Taxing wealth instead of income22:42 — What cutting the deficit would actually do to rates25:15 — Back to the BOJ: why it forced gold and silver higher28:00 — What if Japan doesn't take the bonds back?28:48 — Foreign central banks are selling Treasuries29:47 — Does the US care about gold the way the rest of the world does?32:10 — Bessent and the K-shaped economy33:12 — Housekeeping: viewer question episode33:50 — Parting thoughts

Chris Whalen breaks down why the bond market may matter more than the Federal Reserve, why investors are underestimating the U.S. debt problem, and why he's increasing exposure to silver over gold. We also discuss Japan's currency intervention, rising Treasury yields, inflation, and what these shifts could mean for investors.#Gold #silver #Investing---------------------

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris joins Julia La Roche to argue that Kevin Warsh has a credibility problem: he's holding rates, avoiding confrontation with a divided board, and saying almost nothing, while the bond market does the tightening for him with the ten-year near 4.7% and mortgages headed toward seven-plus. Whalen's prescription is blunt — take back last year's cuts with two quarter-point hikes, consider a surprise August move, raise margin requirements, and keep shrinking the balance sheet, because Treasury is the dog and the Fed is barely the tail. From there the conversation ranges across a coming diesel and fertilizer shortage nobody in Washington will discuss, gold's role as real money in Asia versus a paper price in the West, and Whalen's own portfolio, from Annaly and Rhythm Capital to Flagstar and roughly a fifth in precious metals. The back half turns spicy with Tom Gober's new guest post on life insurers: private-credit-controlled annuity writers reinsuring liabilities offshore without posting enough assets behind them, hidden by state secrecy laws and rubber-stamped by ratings agencies that were never working for you. Plus PennyMac's bad quarter, George Gleason's construction-lending model at Bank OZK, and mailbag questions on SpaceX and mining stocks.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Thomas Gober guest article: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira874Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcoverUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 — Intro: no, the show isn't being cancelled1:52 — Warsh's first pressers: three dissenters and a chairman who says nothing5:42 — How Warsh gets credibility: take back last year's cuts7:20 — Trump stays quiet on Warsh — plus a coming diesel and fertilizer squeeze8:46 — Is the economy finally slowing? The fading power of deficits10:22 — "Treasury is the dog, the Fed is the tail"11:30 — The case for a surprise August hike and less forward guidance12:56 — Gold, Keith Weiner, and the permanent backwardation thesis15:38 — Gold as bank capital: pledging metal as repo collateral16:37 — Whalen's book: Annaly, Rhythm, miners, energy, Schwab, Flagstar19:41 — PennyMac's ugly quarter and why it drags the whole mortgage group down21:23 — Bank OZK vs. the big banks on commercial real estate23:19 — Tom Gober's guest post: is your life insurer actually solvent?27:00 — Offshore reinsurance, secrecy states, and why ratings won't save you29:36 — Mailbag: SpaceX below IPO price — buy more or bail?31:53 — Mailbag: miners vs. metal, GLD/GDX vs. SLV/SIL35:13 — What's next: mortgage earnings, the bank 50, and the gold book

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down why the stablecoin boom may be running out of road — giving the Clarity Act less than 50/50 odds and arguing it could strip the yield out of coins, force issuers offshore, and turn the survivors into banks. He makes the case that stablecoins are little more than "prepaid gift cards," lays out why he's bullish on gold and silver as central banks and China chase physical metal, and warns that real inflation — measured by commodity inputs like energy and sulfur (up 150% since the Iran war), not the CPI — is closing in on double digits. Whalen also sees the 10-year Treasury pushing past 5% and mortgages settling into a "higher for longer" 6.5–7%, flags the mortgage sector as the earnings story to watch, takes aim at Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy, points to safer places to find yield, and keeps circling back to one unsettling parallel: today looks a lot like the 1920s, right before the party ended.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcoverUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 – Intro 0:45 – The Clarity Act: will it kill stablecoins? 3:34 – Do stablecoins have any real use case? 5:17 – Why we may need fewer banks — and more insurers 8:22 – Do stablecoins actually create Treasury demand? 10:16 – Chris's next book: gold 12:20 – Gold's pullback and the bull case for silver 16:37 – Goldman's $4,900 target & John Paulson on gold 17:53 – The BLS quietly redefines inflation 19:40 – A 2% target, a 6% deficit, and 5% yields 22:07 – Why mortgage earnings are the story to watch 24:29 – Affordability, home prices & the blue-state squeeze 26:42 – Why it all rhymes with the 1920s 28:44 – Viewer Q&A: the real double-digit inflation 32:12 – MSTR yields, Saylor & where to find safe income 36:28 – Closing thoughts: the mortgage shakeout ahead

“We have zombie private credit funds, private equity funds today."Investment banker Chris Whalen warns of a "slow motion train wreck" in private credit and a brewing housing crisis.

Just how much input lenders have into Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae's activities is how today's podcast kicks off. Robbie then interviews the Institutional Risk Analyst's Chris Whalen on the fallout from the Two Harbors servicing deal, further consolidation in the mortgage industry, and dominos to fall as companies race to grab market share. And the episode closes with a look ahead to this week's economic calendar. Thank you to JazzX, the first true end-to-end AI platform built for mortgage. From application to underwriting, JazzX is a new operating model that helps you scale growth, boost productivity, and transform how your team performs.The Chrisman Commentary is your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down a blockbuster week of bank earnings — and why the record numbers mask a growing problem. Wall Street trading and investment banking revenues are exploding, but banks aren't making money on money, as asset yields fall for a sixth straight quarter and private credit giants like Apollo poach deals. Whalen flags roughly $4 trillion in bank exposure to non-depository financial institutions, warns "there are no regulators in Washington" watching the risks, and says the housing market's business-purpose loan boom "feels like 2005." He sticks with his double-digit inflation call, arguing diesel — not oil — is the real story, and predicts fuel shortages, maybe even rationing, before the midterm elections. Plus: Kevin Warsh's Greenspan-style Fed debut, gold's selloff as a buying opportunity, viewer questions on Annaly, and a World Cup prediction.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira869Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcoverUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 — Intro and welcome 00:55 Bank earnings and oil prices soar as Middle East war reignites2:36 — Bank earnings disconnect: Wall Street booms, lending shrinks3:55 — Why big deals keep going to private credit (Apollo, Blackstone)5:59 — The hidden risk: banks lending directly to private credit funds9:06 — The $4 trillion exposure — "no regulators watching the hen house"10:07 — The "Everything Bubble": rising rates, falling yields, record home prices12:06 — Kevin Warsh's Greenspan-style Fed: "inflation is a choice"14:40 — Rate hike odds cool — will the Fed wait until after midterms?15:42 — Energy shortages building: why the Trump administration stays quiet16:45 — Double-digit inflation call stands; possible rationing by Election Day17:53 — Iran destroyed Gulf refining capacity — years to rebuild21:52 — Housing: sales fall 2.4%, median price hits record high23:14 — "It feels like 2005" — DSCR and non-QM loans flash warning signs27:19 — Gold selloff: why Chris is buying more (especially silver)29:37 — Viewer Q: How rates affect Annaly (NLY) — it's all about the spread31:03 — Viewer Q: Warsh's 2% target vs. $80 oil — a double whammy?32:27 — Chris's World Cup prediction: Argentina

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris expects the Federal Reserve will deliver one rate hike before Labor Day despite Warsh's preference to delay—the White House has greenlit it to maintain Warsh's credibility as chairman, and this one hike will likely lead to more because incremental Fed policy changes don't stop at one when fighting inflation. The Iran ceasefire has shattered and won't be fixed: Iran has zero incentive to reach peace with the U.S., wants to tax Strait of Hormuz traffic, and will force Gulf states to build pipelines and avoid the strait entirely—oil refineries won't be rebuilt while shooting continues, causing permanent structural supply damage. U.S. oil stocks are at their lowest level in 20 years, diesel is up 30% this year and ripples through every part of the economy, and California is facing potential rationing after it runs down reserves and stops getting refined products from Asia. Whalen stands firm on his double-digit inflation call despite prediction markets showing lower odds, arguing the real economy—not market probabilities—determines consumer and producer behavior, and rising consumer inflation expectations (3.7% one-year) are changing psychology and forcing real estate hedging. Bank earnings next week will reveal whether credit costs continue rising as spreads widen between Treasuries and corporate bonds, signaling medium-term economic slowdown ahead as speculative companies lose financing access.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira866Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    The Entropy Trap: https://www.amazon.com/Entropy-Trap-Physics-Knows-Markets/dp/B0H1ZP7NZX/ref=sr_1_1Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Warsh slow walking rate cut, White House greenlit one hike1:32 FOMC divided, one rate hike likely before Labor Day2:35 White House supporting Warsh to maintain credibility3:39 One hike doesn't typically happen alone4:42 Warsh reducing Fed presence, pulling back on forward guidance5:10 Fed's 2% target won't change consumer behavior on inflation7:29 Oil stocks at 20-year low, diesel shortage critical11:40 Iran ceasefire fragile, no incentive for lasting peace13:41 U.S. must build pipelines, avoid Strait of Hormuz14:08 Physical oil stocks depleted, refined products in short supply15:26 Diesel is political issue - impacts economy, employment16:06 California facing potential rationing without supplies16:36 Diesel up 30% this year, ripples through entire economy17:32 Double-digit inflation thesis still stands despite market skeptics18:46 Prediction markets vs real economy - spreads tell story20:06 Consumer inflation expectations hit 3.7% one-year (3-year high)20:27 Psychology of inflation changes spending and investment behavior21:34 Real estate traditional hedge, prices skyrocketing22:20 Spreads widening, economy slowing medium-term23:35 Earnings season next week - credit costs key indicator24:19 Midterms - Democrats take House, Trump faces impeachment25:32 Politics won't change, nothing gets done26:41 Pfizer building conversion collapsing, structural problems29:17 Bunker Hill Mining penny stock opportunity, silver revival31:28 Banks earnings - watch credit costs, mortgage issuers follow

Chris Whalen kicks off the July 4th episode of The Wrap by diving into private credit implosion with BDCs turning unprofitable, using the acronym POOP (Principal on Outstanding Principal) to illustrate how debt is being converted to equity because companies can't pay—essentially turning investors into equity holders in insolvent companies. The June jobs report shocked with only 57K payrolls added (far below expectations) while household employment actually fell by 500K, making the data contradictory and unreliable despite the overall labor market still showing relative steadiness in many markets. Housing shows sharp bifurcation: sales above $1 million hit a record high while overall volume is down, revealing that only luxury properties are moving as the broader market softens. Goldman Sachs projects gold could hit $4,900, and Whalen is holding silver as a hedge against dollar debasement and inflation, noting the Chinese are aggressively buying silver in both futures and spot markets. Trump has profited handsomely from his various crypto ventures while most investors in those same ventures have lost significant money—a familiar pattern from Trump's business history. With the US national debt now at $39.35 trillion on America's 250th birthday, Whalen warns the Democratic Party will split between socialists and Republicans, with policies like New York's rent freezing turning cities into slums while hurting mom-and-pop landlords. He recommends watching interest rates, the Fed under Kevin Warsh, and expects another uptick in gold and silver prices after recent selloffs, while cautioning on BDCs and private credit exposure as the distress signals mount.Thank you to today's episode sponsor, The Entropy Trap by Mickey Maini. Order your copy: https://www.amazon.com/Entropy-Trap-Physics-Knows-Markets/dp/B0H1ZP7NZX/ref=sr_1_1 Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira864Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:00:00 — Intro and World Cup chat1:09 Gold rebounds, AI stocks slump1:38 Private credit - BDCs turning unprofitable2:40 POOP acronym - Principal on Outstanding Principal, crap debt4:07 POOP emoji Bloomberg article, Victor Hong invented term5:54 AI stocks slumping, pressure on private credit portfolios6:00 Market doesn't like it right now11:23 June non-farm payrolls - 57K added, much worse than expected11:44 May/June comparisons all over place, household employment down 500K12:21 Can't take a lot out of these numbers13:33 Labor market steady to extent we can rely on statistics14:12 Housing costs up, Americans work harder to compensate14:12 Goldman Sachs says gold could hit $4,90015:31 Chinese aggressive buyers of silver, not changing view16:06 Gold/silver hedge against dollar and inflation17:40 US national debt at $39.35 trillion on country's birthday18:12 Democratic Party gonna get torn in half18:50 Rise of democratic socialist candidates19:49 Rent freezing turning NYC into slum, mom and pop landlords hurt20:17 How much money to live in NYC reasonably? Way more than poverty level21:45 Trump crypto - Done well, investors lost a lot23:32 Book - Entropy Trap by Mickey Maini29:33 90% of mortgage market government insured, no systemic bailout needed32:43 Silver good play medium to long term as hedge34:13 Back half of year focused on interest rates35:13 Watching Fed, Kevin Warsh, uptick in gold/silver coming

Chris Whalen joins Julia La Roche on this week's episode of "The Wrap with Chris Whalen" to break down what he calls a "slow motion train wreck" in private credit, where public and private funds alike are getting hammered with redemption requests just as the firms behind them sit on impaired assets like DSCR business-purpose loans. Whalen argues we're living through a replay of 2005 — high tide before the crack — and predicts a housing reset by 2027-2028 ("misery on the eights"), with home prices falling 10-20% and recent borrowers landing underwater. Along the way he covers double-digit inflation driven by energy supply shocks from the Strait of Hormuz, why Chair Warsh can't slow-walk rate hikes, the volatility added by agentic AI trading and ETFs, his long-term bull case for gold and silver, the unwinding of Wall Street's crypto trade, the futility of Mamdani's NYC rent freeze, and viewer questions on inflation measurement and Annaly's common vs. preferred shares. Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira861Fred Ramberg interview: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira860 Signed copy of Seeing Around Corners: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/shopTwitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:00:00 — Intro01:09 — Private credit: the "slow motion train wreck" and redemptions02:24 — Rates higher-for-longer, double-digit inflation & the Strait of Hormuz04:02 — The hidden cost of war and inflation as a tax05:33 — Private credit shops buying insurers & DSCR loans06:46 — "It's 2005 again" and the road to misery on the eights07:46 — Signposts: institutional fraud in business-purpose loans08:45 — What a DSCR loan is vs. a residential mortgage11:55 — The private credit gates connection12:32 — Predicting the 2028 housing reset & price declines14:52 — How rising prices have masked defaults15:27 — A 10-20% home price reset explained15:46 — Which markets crack first (Florida, Miami, blue-state Northeast)17:10 — Mom-and-pop investors and fix-and-flips17:49 — Advice for homebuyers: stay below the conforming limit18:42 — AI & semiconductor stock volatility19:15 — Agentic trading bots and market manipulation20:35 — Precious metals: gold below 4,000, silver near 5722:37 — PCE data, sticky inflation & the gold-silver case23:13 — Crypto falling apart, MicroStrategy & BlackRock selling24:33 — CME suing over perps (perpetual futures)25:34 — The NYC rent freeze / Mamdani hot take26:49 — Viewer mail: changing the definition of inflation28:20 — Viewer mail: is the debasement trade over?29:08 — Viewer mail: Annaly common vs. preferred31:03 — What's ahead next week (plus World Cup talk)32:46 — Wrap-up

Chris Whalen is back for The Wrap after his fishing trip in Maine, where he caught a 21-inch smallmouth bass! He's very positive on Kevin Warsh's "less is more" approach at the Fed—no forward guidance, likely removing the dot plot, and refocusing on letting the numbers speak for themselves rather than trying to control expectations through communication. Whalen argues the bond market has already delivered a rate hike on its own, and if he were Warsh, he'd wait and see how the Iran peace deal holds before making more moves, given that war inflation is transitory and external to Fed policy. He reveals the definition of inflation will likely be narrowed to minimize rate hikes and avoid tanking the economy, and he's watching a massive rebalancing from equities to bonds at record allocation levels. Whalen sold most of his AI stocks and locked in serious gains, but he's holding SpaceX as a long-term play given Elon's monopolies on space launch and global internet. He warns the AI bubble is going south with Mike Saylor and Bitcoin spiraling, sees gold and silver as a great entry point after being beaten down, and is adding to positions. He explains silver's manufacturing and technology demand while copper faces supply constraints. On Iran, Whalen argues the MOU doesn't solve underlying inflation drivers—diesel, fertilizer, energy ripple through the economy—so double-digit inflation is locked in with no Fed rate cuts coming. He's concerned about private credit festering with two-and-twenty fees still common, distressed debt exchanges now over 70% of defaults since 2022, and he likes Annaly as a mortgage REIT with government-insured assets and mortgage servicing rights providing protection. Whalen notes precious metals could still rise despite rate hikes because central banks will keep accumulating gold as reserve assets. Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira858Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen1:47 Warsh sets different tone - No forward guidance, likely no dot plots3:33 Less is more approach - Fed was communicating too much5:43 Bond market has already done the rate hike6:50 War inflation is transitory - External factor Fed can't control7:19 Definition of inflation will be adjusted/narrowed9:10 Bond market doing tightening, not Fed funds rate10:34 Rebalancing from equities to bonds at record levels11:50 Sold most AI stocks, took profits, holding SpaceX12:07 SpaceX monopoly on space/internet - Long term play13:57 AI trade, Bitcoin15:57 Gold/silver beaten up but good entry, adding positions17:02 Silver manufacturing and technology demand17:49 Copper supply/demand - Not enough copper globally19:32 Iran MOU doesn't solve underlying issues21:45 Double-digit inflation locked in - Diesel, fertilizer ripple22:34 Fed can't fix war-driven inflation23:52 No rate cuts coming - Business banking on cuts won't get them24:48 Private credit festering problem - Two and twenty fees26:16 Distressed debt exchanges over 70% of defaults29:27 Annaly - Mortgage REIT with government insured assets30:00 Precious metals could rise despite rate hikes - Central banks buying31:43 Precious metals dollar strength question32:07 Next week

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen reveals an "explosive" John Dizard interview dropping next week on rationing of synthetic lubricants for turbines and hybrid cars before the midterms, while the Trump administration stays blind to the supply crisis from destroyed Persian Gulf refineries. Markets are already processing the damage, but the Trump admin lacks the organization to prepare Americans for coming energy rationing and diesel shortages. Whalen argues the Fed is "powerless" against external war-driven shocks, yet double-digit inflation is "locked in" for certain categories. He's taking profits on AI stocks (AMD, ARM) after 150-200% gains, bought back into Chevron, and declares Bitcoin "toast" as the crypto bubble bursts. He warns communities blocking data center projects will become "very significant negatives" for AI, and describes the current market as "manic"—driven purely by Fed Covid cash into AI stocks as people chase shiny objects rather than value. Monetary-Metals.com/julia Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira852Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Intro and welcome 01:00 Markets this week - Tech hit hard, gold erased gains, Bitcoin crushed4:02 John Dizard interview - Rationing synthetic lubricants before midterms5:30 Trump admin blind to crisis, needs WWII-level mobilization7:58 Suppliers already rationing, July/August shortages pronounced10:41 Double-digit inflation locked in, Fed powerless against external shocks11:58 Taking profits on AI - Sold AMD, ARM, back into Chevron13:19 Fed doesn't understand financial markets or mortgage servicing14:40 Bond spreads tight - Scarcity of quality assets17:28 Bill Pulte as Acting Director of National Intelligence - Political payback20:20 Trump shoots from hip, alienating Republicans, can't get anything done21:02 Kevin Warsh quote - 3% inflation destroys economies22:10 Gold erased 2026 gains - Higher rates, Bitcoin collapse23:48 Bitcoin toast - BlackRock selling, crypto bubble burst25:19 Manic market not driven by value, chasing AI26:00 Communities blocking data center projects - Politics killing AI27:07 Bubble driven by Fed Covid cash flood28:43 Parting thoughts - Fishing in Maine, Dizard interview next week

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen reveals bank incomes are up but the real story is the trading side of the house driving earnings, not lending, as deposits grow faster than assets forcing banks into trading operations. He warns private credit default rates have hit a record 6%, nearly 10 times worse than bank default rates, signaling the end of the credit cycle as non-banks now lead lending. Whalen predicts double-digit inflation remains likely, expects QE5 to come despite Warsh's denials since the Fed balance sheet must grow proportionally with federal debt, and argues Fed policy is losing efficacy against external war-driven inflation that raising rates won't fix. He discusses massive housing consolidation and M&A deals coming as mortgage lenders face crushing higher rates, details how private equity is rolling up every service provider imaginable (plumbers, electricians, dentists, oncologists) and "screwing them up terribly," warns TIPS aren't reflecting true inflation, and predicts major housing lender mergers between now and year end. Whalen maintains his thesis that the Fed doesn't control long-term rates and that shrinking the balance sheet would be more effective than raising the Fed funds rate, argues the AI momentum trade is crowded and silly, and expects no action from the Fed in June but potential rate hike language removal from statements. Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira847Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Introduction - Bank Income Up, Stocks Sideways01:00 Banks recap5:06 Private credit default rate record 6% - 10x worse than banks6:14 Who's most exposed to private credit losses?7:36 Reversal in low rate environment impact9:39 Kevin Warsh and Fed balance sheet strategy10:01 Double-digit inflation still likely?10:40 What were worst impacts of QE?11:00 Housing was the headline impact of QE12:43 Fed housing subsidy went outside their mandate12:51 Fed is progressive institution out of control13:49 We may be closer to QE5 than Bessent knows15:05 Fed balance sheet must grow with federal debt16:04 New leadership - what about Fed funds rate?16:18 Potential for cut or hike?18:06 Base case still stagflation?20:12 Private equity excess cash looking for yield22:10 Politics of housing affordability daunting23:35 Viewer questions - TIPS24:26 Municipal bond default risk 26:24 Why higher inflation won't drive down gold28:42 AI craziness - momentum market29:31 Trump wanted cuts but prospects disappearing29:54 June FOMC - don't expect action31:20 Fed balance sheet more important than Fed funds rate33:11 Next week - bank report Monday

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down how the Iran war situation is sinking GOP hopes for the midterms as he predicts double-digit inflation by year end driven by critical petroleum product shortages, with John Dizard warning rationing is coming to the United States for intensive products like gas turbine lubricants. Whalen explains the Fed will be forced to hike rates as early as July according to Diane Swonk, representing a dramatic shift from rate cut expectations just weeks ago, though raising rates won't help with external war-driven inflation and politics will eventually force cuts if the economy slows. He reveals real gas prices are actually low when adjusted for 15 years of dollar purchasing power loss, discusses how the politics of affordability will reshape the landscape with Republicans at risk of losing both House and Senate, and maintains his long gold position as inflation hedge while viewing silver as a commercial play on technology demand. Whalen details Kevin Warsh's strategy to shrink the Fed balance sheet while credibly cutting short-term rates by forcing markets to absorb more duration, explains why the 1970s stock market stagnation differs from today due to demographics and higher stock ownership, predicts Social Security will eventually be means-tested as the math has reversed from 10 workers per retiree to the opposite, and argues passive investment mechanisms killed crypto with Wall Street ETFs now controlling price action. Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira847Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Introduction - Inflation sinks GOP, private credit drama0:37 Fed will have to get in front of inflation now1:35 Iran situation sinking GOP hopes for midterms2:21 Rationing coming to the United States - John Dizard prediction3:21 Could hit double-digit inflation by year end3:51 Walk through the double-digit inflation thesis5:58 Real gas prices are actually low when adjusted for inflation7:00 Knock-on effects of double-digit inflation7:23 Politics of affordability will reshape US landscape8:01 Republicans in danger of losing House and Senate8:45 Diane Swonk thinks rate hike as early as July9:01 How big of a shift is this in Fed's thinking?9:53 Last time asset holders benefited - Will it be different this time?11:49 Gold and silver behaving differently lately13:09 Long gold as inflation hedge, silver as commercial play14:01 Kevin Warsh could shrink Fed balance sheet while cutting short rates17:39 Viewer mail - Inflation scenario with liquidity trap20:11 Viewer question on Annaly dividend22:11 1970s inflation vs today - Why stocks didn't make new highs then24:05 Blue state housing policies debate27:06 Social Security funding crisis - Means testing coming?28:36 Third rail of American politics28:49 Stablecoin reserve status question31:02 Chris's parting thoughts - Significant change in narratives33:03 Closing thoughts

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed chair and explains why this represents a dramatic shift from the progressive, statist Fed created by Mariner Eccles in the 1930s to a supply-side approach. Whalen reveals that Fed chairs have enormous unilateral power and predicts Warsh will reduce the balance sheet and reserves while trading off lower short-term rates, ending the regime where "every time the market hiccupped, the Fed ran in and dumped more reserves." He warns the 30-year bond topping 5% is just the beginning, with the long end potentially hitting 6% as Iran war impacts drive inflation to double digits by year end, possibly requiring rationing of key petroleum byproducts before the midterms. Whalen explains why silver is surging (Chinese tech demand, solid-state batteries, reduced mining) while discussing non-bank mortgage drama with United Wholesale Mortgage potentially becoming "the next Countrywide." He argues stocks will continue rising as inflation hedges, dismisses apocalyptic debt scenarios since the world needs dollars for trade, and predicts we'll need to get used to mortgages in the 6-7% range instead of 4-5% under higher-for-longer.Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira845Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Introduction - Silver soars, Warsh confirmed, 30-year bond tops 5%0:32 Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed chair - What changes now?6:14 Market7:29 Banks bought back more stock than they made money9:00 30-year bond hits 5% for first time since 20089:56 Planning rationing strategies for key materials from petroleum11:04 Could get to double-digit inflation by end of year12:28 Long end of curve could get closer to 6% than 5%12:56 Trump meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing - How big of a deal?14:25 Dow hitting 50,000 - Blow off top or still runway?19:02 Silver surging - What's going on?21:03 The next Countrywide?24:29 End game with higher for longer under Warsh27:09 Viewer mail - National debt and market impact29:19 Will Warsh treat Iran war inflation as self-correcting?30:33 What Chris is watching next week/closing thoughts

Warsh's arrival at the Fed actually means in practice — significant personnel changes, new models, and what Chris calls nothing short of an "earthquake at the central bank." Chris explains why there will be no rate cuts for a while, why the Fed balance sheet is growing again despite Warsh wanting to shrink it, and the one-to-one relationship between the balance sheet and public debt that most people aren't talking about. Plus: silver is in physical shortage and can't be delivered in parts of Asia, private credit is getting quiet as the bad headlines pile up, AMD is Chris's AI play of choice, and why the Iran war means "traumatic shortages by June" even if a deal were struck tomorrow. Chris also answers viewer questions on Warsh shrinking the balance sheet, gold under a tightening regime, the PennyMac LIBOR lawsuit, and Annaly Capital earnings. And Julia closes on her first house. Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira842Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Welcome & intro 0:49 Fed balance sheet growing again even though Warsh wants to shrink it 1:08 The one-to-one relationship between the Fed balance sheet and public debt 3:28 Will we continue to see a more inflationary environment? 3:37 Silver on a tear — physical shortage, can't deliver the metal 4:41 Still money pouring into private credit 8:32 Too many dollars chasing too few returns — what this means for markets 11:10 Are we setting up for a longer term risk? 12:13 GameStop CEO's bid for eBay — what does Chris make of it? 14:08 Changing the models, retiring staff — "an earthquake at the central bank" 16:32 "No rate cuts for a while" — Warsh has to establish rapport first 19:25 Iran hostilities dragging on — how much longer is this a major risk?the year 23:02 Adding to gold positions — "the selloff was a gift" 25:36 Mortgage sector — rates up, companies waiting for cuts that aren't coming 26:16 Banks not attractive right now — what would make them more attractive? 27:30 Viewer Q — How could Warsh shrink the Fed balance sheet? 27:56 Scarce reserve regime — T-bills, discount window, can he get it done?29:02 Viewer Q — Is gold a good investment under a tightening regime? 29:52 Viewer Q — PennyMac lawsuit over LIBOR/SOFR transition 31:31 Viewer Q — Annaly Capital earnings — "good earnings, beat expectations" 32:13 What is Chris watching next week? 33:17 GoldCo sponsor — goldco.com/thewrap — 855-573-0817

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down what he calls one of the most significant weeks in Fed history — Powell's final press conference as chairman, his decision to stay on as a Fed governor to block Trump from a second appointment, and what it means for Kevin Warsh walking into a hostile committee with the most dissenting votes since 1992. Chris explains why the Fed has been "the key engine of progressive socialism in Washington" since 1935, what a Warsh-led Fed actually looks like in practice, and why the Trump White House missed a political layup by not hanging "the burning tire of home price affordability" around Powell's neck. Plus: why sulfur — not oil — is the one word that sums up the biggest threat to the global economy right now, what China's sulfuric acid export ban means for copper, silver, and inflation, and why distressed real estate is "the next trade."Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira840Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Welcome & intro — what a week it was 2:05 Powell staying as fed governor 5:08 Warsh — "a hawk on inflation but a supply sider" 7:15 Powell's warning about regional Fed presidents8:10 What can we expect from a Warsh-led Fed?11:30 "The burning tire they should have hung around Powell's neck" 12:25 "What would be the message?" — Chris on political messaging and affordability14:44 What change is Chris most looking forward to at the Fed?16:41 Inflation is accelerating17:28 Sulfur — the one word that sums up the global economic threat20:17 What is Chris doing with his precious metals right now?21:17 US equity markets hitting record highs — what does Chris make of it? 24:30 Distressed real estate is "the next trade" 29:40 One year anniversary of Inflated — reflection and what's come to fruition 34:32 What is Chris watching next week?

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down what's really driving the rally, why the inflationary impact of the Iran war will stay with us through the end of 2026, and why the Fed's hands are essentially tied regardless of who sits in the chair. Chris also digs into Q1 bank earnings — what the numbers are really saying about credit risk, why most banks are still refusing to disclose their private credit exposures, and why he believes the debt in these deals will ultimately be converted to equity — with retail and institutional investors left holding the bag. Plus: commercial real estate as a long-term drag on cities, the New York pied-à-terre tax as political theater, gold and silver ETF picks, and why Chris says the U.S. equity market would be "comfortable with the devil by lunchtime." Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira837Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    "Homework" from Chris :) https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/the-reserve-barbellUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Intro 0:27 Breaking news — DOJ drops Powell probe, Chris reacts 2:03 Chris's assessment of Powell — "Mediocre" 2:18 "The burning tire of home price affordability" 3:58 "He could be attacking Warsh by Thanksgiving"5:49 Does Warsh come in as a hawk? 9:45 Main episode begins 10:15 Middle East/Iran update 12:56 Stagflation is the base case 15:00 Truflation viewer question 16:50 Spirit Airlines bailout 20:32 Kevin Warsh hearing circus 23:29 VantageScore — "election year press release" 27:15 D. Ricardo's letter on private credit 29:00 NVIDIA — "I would not be a buyer" 30:54 The generational experience gap 31:49 "You think we may get a crisis this year?" 32:45 Share repurchases — "funded with debt" 34:06 Gold homework — Reserve Barbell 37:07 The passive bid 38:00 Viewer Q — community banks 40:11 Viewer Q — Did Chris lock in his mortgage? 42:11 FOMC next week 42:30 "Distressed real estate is the next trade"

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down what's really driving the rally, why the inflationary impact of the Iran war will stay with us through the end of 2026, and why the Fed's hands are essentially tied regardless of who sits in the chair. Chris also digs into Q1 bank earnings — what the numbers are really saying about credit risk, why most banks are still refusing to disclose their private credit exposures, and why he believes the debt in these deals will ultimately be converted to equity — with retail and institutional investors left holding the bag. Plus: commercial real estate as a long-term drag on cities, the New York pied-à-terre tax as political theater, gold and silver ETF picks, and why Chris says the U.S. equity market would be "comfortable with the devil by lunchtime." Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrapLinks:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira826Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:00:00 - Introduction & kicking off with this week's Wrap 00:52 Markets surging on Iran/Strait of Hormuz news — Chris's initial take02:30 — Why inflation won't go away even if a deal is struck today 04:41 — FOMC outlook — no cuts expected, Fed on hold 05:21 — Trump's threat to fire Powell — why it won't happen and why the approach is backfiring 10:40 — War Powers Act and the 60-day congressional clock — what happens next 11:49 — Q1 Bank Earnings overview — revenue up, credit costs falling, but private credit disclosure disappoints 14:29 — Commercial real estate 16:30 — Housing market 17:24 — New York pied-à-terre tax — politics or policy? 20:16 — CRE as a long-term drag on city tax revenues, not an acute crisis 21:44 — Private credit disclosure — what questions remain after earnings 22:49 — "Private credit will become equity" — Chris explains the mechanics 24:49 — Red Lobster as the perfect example of debt-to-equity conversion 25:08 — Who are the losers? Retail, institutional investors — and some regional banks 25:29 — John Ray III's warning: regional banks are holding the bag on private credit 26:25 — Viewer Q: Trapped Fed — rate cuts, QE, or yield curve control in a stagflation scenario? 28:06 — Viewer Q: Which gold ETFs is Chris buying right now? 29:15 — Viewer Q: Why does the market keep taking Trump's word on Iran? 31:05 — Stocks vs. bonds in inflationary periods — why income assets are the play 32:22 — Is Chris more optimistic than usual? His take on doom and gloom narratives 33:27 — Closing thoughts, where to find Chris, and GoldCo sponsor message

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen says the US has no vision of victory in Iran — like Afghanistan and Vietnam, we went in without knowing what winning looks like and are now backing down without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump administration went from threatening to destroy Iranian civilization to total capitulation in weeks, leaving the Saudis and Israelis furious. Meanwhile Iran is extorting $1 per barrel in yuan or bitcoin to let ships through, China is standing behind the curtain in Pakistan pulling the strings, and even if the ceasefire holds it could take a year before energy and byproduct flows normalize. On housing, Whalen calls the peak — Q1 2026 was probably it — and says the answer to what happens to home prices is "nada to lower," with Houston and Clearwater already seeing serious erosion and the broader market heading for years of sideways action. Rising energy prices mean the Fed is forced to wait on cuts, making 2026 a very different year than 2025. His portfolio is defensive — income assets, Annaly, and gold is his only high-conviction trade. He bought more gold the morning of the recording and says both gold and silver remain asymmetric bull trades given supply constraints and Asia's dominance as the new price setter for precious metals.Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrapLinks:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira832Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 - Introduction & kicking off with this week's Wrap 0:52 - Trump's "total capitulation" on Iran — from threatening to destroy Iranian civilization to ceasefire 2:10 - The winners & losers5:00 - The China-US story — why should Beijing help Trump? 6:20 - The dollar narrative — why Whalen is skeptical of the "end of the dollar" story 7:40 - Gold still outperforming US stocks over the past 12 months8:10 - Whalen bought gold this morning — still his only high conviction trade 10:18 - China's Treasury holdings — trading securities for cash deposits, not dumping dollars 11:20 - Yuan and Bitcoin 14:38 - Inflation and no rate cut at the April FOMC 15:32 - 2026 is going to be a very different year than 2025 16:10 - Whalen's portfolio right now — risk off, income generating, precious metals 16:45 - Liquidated Chevron and Williams 17:48 - Gold and silver as asymmetrical bull trades — monetary vs commercial case 19:31 - The mortgage roundtable in Washington — volumes are going to fall 20:00 - MBA projects 0.6% home price growth — flat to slightly down 23:39 - "Do you think we've seen a peak in home prices?" — "Yes" 24:43 - Misery on the eights — prolonged period of low or no price appreciation 26:18 - Why Whalen changed his view — supply still hasn't caught up 28:00 - Viewer Mail: Oil producer stocks — should you take profits? 29:20 - Viewer Mail: Tokenization of stocks and ETFs 32:05 - What Whalen is watching next week

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen says this selloff is worse than Liberation Day because it's real economic dislocation — not just a market surprise — driven by the Iran war's devastating knock-on effects on energy, chemicals and global supply chains. He says the Fed should do nothing, because this inflation is caused by war not monetary policy and central banks can't fix a sulfur shortage. But he warns QE is coming anyway — "the question is not if, but when" — because Congress refuses to deal with the deficit and the Fed will eventually be forced to monetize the debt. He's been cutting market exposure, raising cash, and buying physical metals on the dip. On private credit he sees a slow-motion trainwreck with a Lehman moment still possible, and says Washington is going to make it worse by ignoring it.Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrapLinks:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira826Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 - Intro and welcome Chris 01:00 - The Fed should do nothing — you can't fight war inflation with rate hikes 2:39 - Why this inflation is fundamentally different from 2021 3:03 - Powell got it wrong on QE — and Trump totally mishandled the situation 4:12 - The rationale for doing nothing — the dual mandate is the problem 5:12 - Jobs report — 178,000 jobs added, unemployment at 4.3% 8:02 - M2 is expanding — this economy keeps going regardless of policymakers 9:01 - Are we headed for a recession? 10:06 - The John Dizard interview — diesel is the real key to the global economy 12:54 - Even if the war ends tomorrow — damage will take months or years to fix 20:00 - Whalen has been cutting market exposure and raising cash 20:28 - Is this worse than Liberation Day? "I think it is — much more significant" 21:29 - Why gold and silver sold off — Gulf states raising cash 22:41 - What's behind the dollar rebound23:28 - QE is coming — "not if, but when" 25:09 - Viewer Mail: Second and third order impacts of the oil surge on liquidity 26:47 - Viewer Mail: Can private credit break all at once? 28:16 - Viewer Mail: Should I lock my mortgage rate now? 29:05 - Viewer Mail: Rising long-term rates and Annaly — what am I missing? 30:31 - Viewer Mail: What can Treasury do to help private credit? 32:06 - Is it too late to do anything about private credit? 34:07 - What Whalen is watching next week — credit, Treasury market, mortgage rates

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen says stagflation is now the base case — the Iran war has already cost American investors trillions in reduced investment value, Treasury auctions are weak, and mortgage rates are heading toward 7% if the 10-year hits 5%. Despite all of this, he still calls for a Fed cut in April, arguing the inflation is caused by war not monetary policy, and the Fed's real mandate is employment. He says we're heading toward a medium to long-term reset in risk premia, equities are out and debt is in, and that a recession by 2028 — "misery on the eights" — is becoming a near certainty. He's adding to gold and silver on the dip and if Annaly goes down he's buying more.Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrapLinks:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira826Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 - Intro and welcome Chris 0:47 - The Iran war and long-term damage to the global economy 2:18 - Are we headed toward more inflation? 2:41 - The term structure of interest rates is blowing out — here's why4:02 - Making the case for a Fed cut despite $100 oil 4:26 - Stagflation is ahead5:30 - The Fed's real mandate is employment — that's what forces the cut6:40 - Whalen calls for a rate cut in April 7:51 - What difference would a cut actually make? 8:19 - Bonds are behaving like equities 9:08 - The $5.12 trillion cost of the Iran war to American investors 11:11 - Where Whalen is putting his own money right now 13:03 - Why the market has stayed resilient despite all the headlines 13:53 - Private credit - Is Apollo facing a Lehman moment? 18:53 - Weak Treasury auctions — what that means for mortgage rates20:06 - People don't want to understand what the war is doing to the economy 21:03 - This year is the opposite of last year — no easy trades 21:58 - Bob Elliott's world where long rates are closer to 4% than 2% — is that the new normal? 23:11 - If the 10-year hits 5% has the bond market lost trust in the Fed?24:16 - Gold at $4,500 today — volatile but Whalen is staying long 25:26 - Viewer question: crypto-backed mortgages with Fannie and Freddie? 27:20 - Is recession now a near certainty?28:07 - Viewer Mail: What are the downside risks to Annaly? 30:00 - Viewer Mail: Should you invest in Canadian banks? 31:49 - What Whalen is watching next week

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen says the private credit unwind is now spreading to consumer credit funds and warns that retirees and pension funds will feel the pain most — while the firms that sold these products face devastating reputational damage. On the Fed, he calls Trump's handling of Powell "truly incredible, almost like he wants to screw it up" and warns Powell could remain Fed Chair for three more years if Trump doesn't back down. He says the Fed is late, oil above $100 is not a monetary problem but a political one, and that if Trump puts Marines in the Persian Gulf it could effectively end his presidency. He's buying gold and silver on the dip and watching the K-shaped economy crack wider.Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrapLinks:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Introduction and welcome 0:52 - Consumer credit 3:16 - Big banks now offering ways to short private credit4:53 - How private equity evolved into private credit — and why quality collapsed 7:25 - "Risk Concealed" — SPE loans, PIK structures and hidden bank exposure 9:26 - How do you know if YOU are exposed? You don't. 11:29 - "We're all exposed" — what bank disclosure actually tells you 13:12 - The opacity problem — loan by loan, you can't see it 13:58 - Will everyday investors feel this? Retirees and pension funds will15:25 - The Fed — rates unchanged, Powell is staying 16:11 - Trump "almost like he wants to screw it up" — the Powell/Warsh debacle 19:06 - Powell could be Fed Chair for three more years — here's why 20:47 - Could Trump have gotten the rate cuts he wanted if he'd handled this differently? 21:50 - If Trump puts Marines in the Persian Gulf "that's the end of his presidency" 23:18 - All roads lead to inflation — and it's not monetary 25:19 - Is the Fed late? "Chronically late for the past 10 years" 26:27 - The K-shaped economy — the bottom half is already in recession27:38 - Luxury hotels booming, economy hotels empty — the data tells the story 29:58 - Inflation and affordability will decide the midterms 30:29 - FHFA rolls back climate insurance rules — mostly a press release31:13 - UWMC/TWO — a cash offer emerged, Whalen says Two Harbors goes to auction 33:43 - Viewer Mail: AGNC and mortgage REITs — what to own for income35:41 - Viewer Mail: Why is gold dropping? Whalen is buying the dip 37:15 - What Whalen is watching next week

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen warns that private credit could become one of the biggest busts in U.S. financial history — not a systemic crisis, but a slow, painful unwind that will take years and leave many investors with no legal rights. He alleges that BDC accounting fraud is already systemic and the SEC isn't paying attention. On the macro, he says the Fed should still cut rates one to two times this year despite oil near $100 because war is not a monetary event — and that raising into an oil shock, as some central banks did before 2008, would be a mistake. He predicts a significant housing price correction by 2028, calls Trump's economic agenda incoherent, and warns that $100 oil by election day could cost Republicans the midterms. His highest conviction position right now: preserving capital.Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrapLinks:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 - Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen 0:31 JPMorgan pulling back from private credit 4:32 - The $4.2 trillion exposure number most investors don't know about7:05 - Where Whalen is personally invested right now 8:02 - Is private credit systemic or not? 8:43 - "Risk is never contained" — what to think when you hear that language 11:42 - Will the Trump administration end in a financial crisis? 13:50 - Rate cuts — will the Fed move despite $100 oil? 16:16 - Base case: one to two cuts, oil at $100 most of the year 17:51 - Housing off the radar in Washington? 19:22 - Midterms — is Trump cooked? 20:30 - Trump's economic endgame  23:05 - Gold and silver — breakout or going sideways? 25:57 - Banks28:12 - Viewer mail35:43 - What Whalen is watching next week

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen warns the Trump administration is heading toward a financial crisis, driven by private credit contagion, hidden leverage, and a Washington that isn't paying attention. He breaks down the BlackRock blowup, the PIK loan problem, Iran's market impact, and explains why he's buying gold and staying out of financials.Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrapLinks:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Intro and welcome to The Wrap with Chris Whalen00:36 - Classic risk-off period we'll remember for years 02:42 - Lloyd Blankfein says private credit "smells like 2008" — is he right? 05:00 - BlackRock marks $25M loan from 100 cents to zero in 3 months06:50 - Apollo CEO calls this a "shake out" 09:08 -Goldco 10:08 - PIK loans & "POOP" structures — is this the beginning of a default wave? 13:26 - Where Whalen is putting his own money right now 16:03 - "Every asset class is short interest rate volatility" — what that means for you 18:05 - Will the Fed cut rates? Whalen says yes — possibly as soon as March 19:46 - Nobody in Washington is talking about financial contagion — who should be? 22:22 - Tariffs: why Whalen calls the $175B refund story a "huge nothing"23:04 - Gold & silver: why Whalen is more confident than ever on precious metals 26:07 - Iran escalates: what it means for markets & why there's no endgame 27:08 - Teapot Dome, Warren Harding & the Trump parallel 30:37 - Viewer Mail: Is your annuity at risk if private credit blows up?31:49 - Viewer Mail: Is there an MBS story to the private credit unraveling?33:00 - Viewer Mail: The Fed's balance sheet surge — should you be worried? 35:00 - Viewer Mail: Are we heading back to a gold-based monetary system? 36:30 - Final thoughts: what Whalen is watching next week

"This could be one of the biggest busts we've ever seen on Wall Street," warns Chris Whalen, Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors. In this interview with Daniela Cambone, Whalen unravels how the private credit market has become a ticking time bomb for the financial system. He explains how private equity firms are purchasing insurance companies and, instead of taking a conservative approach to investing, are using cheaper Federal Home Loan Bank advances to make riskier investments, putting retirees' money in harm's way. Citing recent defaults in the sector, including issues at Blue Owl, he warns that it will be "quite a mess when it really unfolds." Whalen also offers a solution for investors, stating, "That's why metals are so important, Daniela. Metals are an act of refusal. If you invest in gold and silver or even other metals, what you're saying is you're choosing not to follow the crowd." Chapters: 00:00 The private credit is cracking06:50 Is this the end of bitcoin?08:29 Will the Fed save the market?10:04 Financial market correction12:42 Kevin Warsh is a gold guy15:32 Silver and gold growth trajectory17:52 Tariffs: what happens next? ✅ FREE RESOURCESDownload The Private Wealth Playbook — a data-backed guide to strategically acquiring gold and silver for maximum protection, privacy, and performance. Plus, get Daniela Cambone's Top 10 Lessons to safeguard your wealth (FREE)

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down the unraveling of private credit and why retail investors were never suitable for these investments in the first place. He explains how private credit shops have quietly gained access to Federal Home Loan Bank funding through insurance company acquisitions — a taxpayer-subsidized arrangement he finds extraordinary and plans to investigate further. On markets, Chris argues liquidity will be the defining theme of 2026, with money rotating out of speculative and private assets back into public markets. He also flags early warning signs in consumer credit, names the specific companies to watch for deterioration, and explains why the mortgage market needs rates to fall further before any real pickup in activity. On precious metals, Chris details a seismic secular shift underway as India joins China in moving away from COMEX pricing toward Asian markets — and warns that if COMEX cannot deliver physical metal against futures contracts, it could be forced out of the business entirely.Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingLinks:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Intro and welcome to The Wrap with Chris Whalen0:49 Private credit is unraveling — are retail investors about to run like Silicon Valley Bank3:51 The insurance company play5:20 Does the insurance and private credit connection create contagion risk6:05 Nvidia beats but the market sells it — is the AI trade structurally broken8:07 Why has the broader market held up despite the tech and SaaS selloff9:00 Liquidity is the theme of 2026 10:12 Banks discussion 14:49 Mortgage market — 30 year rates dip below 6%, does it last16:42 Will we see more rate cuts — Chris's expectations for Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair18:37 What it would take to unlock the housing market20:34 Tariffs21:50 The most important things for markets to focus on right now22:36 Silver — COMEX and London are losing their role as price setters26:36 Chris's portfolio — gold, silver, junior miners and why productive capacity matters27:18 Viewer question — Basel III, central banks, and gold as a tier one asset29:44 What Chris is watching and writing about next week31:12 Where to find Chris and The Institutional Risk Analyst — 25% off for viewers

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen analyzes the Blue Owl situation as part of a broader pattern in private credit. He argues that private credit firms purchasing insurance companies is "the fox getting into the hen house" since insurance assets are held at book value rather than marked to market, beyond easy regulator reach. Chris makes the case that public markets are superior due to transparency and liquidity, while private markets mainly benefit Wall Street through higher fees, and predicts roughly half of private equity managers will struggle to raise capital due to poor performance. From his Washington visit, Chris notes redistricting has left few genuinely competitive House seats, discusses a Supreme Court case on Voting Rights Act enforcement, and predicts 2028 will be Rahm Emanuel versus Marco Rubio. He explains Vice Chair Michelle Bowman's proposal to roll back Basel III mortgage restrictions that have discouraged bank housing finance for 15 years. On silver, Chris describes Chinese exchanges imposing trading limits due to supply constraints, commercial buyers sourcing from artisanal mines, and potential COMEX cash settlement, noting he continues adding to gold and silver positions despite volatility.Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingLinks:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Preview: The fox getting into the hen house 0:38 Welcome back — Blue Owl and the private credit blowup 1:23 Chris's reaction to Blue Owl restricting redemptions 3:19 Why this matters for retail investors and retirees 4:21 Two reasons this matters — volatility and annuity risk 5:59 How many people truly understand this risk? 6:47 It's not a headline issue until it becomes one 9:22 The Modigliani-Miller Theorem explained 11:12 Do you dabble in private markets at all? 12:18 How do you see this ultimately playing out? 13:05 Half of all PE managers will go out of business 15:12 Do you get pushback from the industry? 16:06 Moving to DC — upcoming midterms 16:45 The disconnect between media narrative and reality 18:22 Supreme Court case on Voting Rights Act 20:33 Base case for midterms — who takes the House? 22:42 Trump administration's communication problems 23:30 Bold call: Rahm Emanuel for Democratic nomination 2028 24:56 The case for Rahm Emanuel 27:09 Marco Rubio vs Rahm Emanuel prediction 28:23 Michelle Bowman's significant speech on Basel III 30:07 How Basel III distorted the mortgage market for 15 years 32:15 What's going on in silver specifically? 34:55 The silver squeeze — producers going to artisanal mines 36:01 Still long gold and silver, adding positions 37:01 What Chris is watching next week

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen argues that the AI narrative is stalling and we're witnessing a sustained rotation from tech, AI, and crypto into safer, income-generating stocks. Chris points out that JPMorgan — arguably the best-run bank in America — has fallen from the top of his rankings to 87th place in just six months, a dramatic shift showing managers are rotating into smaller cap names. He describes this as a "manic, momentum-driven market" where the extraordinary gains of 2025 are now being given back. Chris is skeptical of both the AI and crypto narratives, calling them "driven by Wall Street hype," and notes that crypto is suffering specifically because the AI story has broken down. For 2026, he advises looking for safety and income rather than growth, remains long gold and silver despite volatility, and cautions that "this year is going to be a much more difficult year" for most sectors. On housing and the Fed, Chris lays out what Kevin Warsh and Scott Besant must do: swap the Fed's $2 trillion MBS portfolio to Treasury, restructure low-coupon securities into CMOs, and bury them in insurance company balance sheets to unlock the housing market.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Welcome and intro 01:00 AI narrative stalling, tech's worst week since November 1:59 Is this a healthy correction or something bigger? 4:58 JPMorgan now ranks 87th — what does that tell you? 6:36 Small caps rule right now — managers rotating to safety 7:30 What does it mean if managers won't own the best bank in America?8:30 The link between crypto and AI 11:32 Chris is skeptical of both AI and crypto narratives 11:57 What's the next legitimate growth story for the US? 13:15 All that trapped private equity capital in tech 14:55 Fannie and Freddie earnings — but where's the growth? 17:00 What Warsh and Bessent need to do to fix housing 19:00 Should the Fed engage in fiscal issues? 21:54 The Fed's real mandate — keeping the Treasury market open 23:00 What should Warsh do with the MBS on the balance sheet? 24:58 Why we haven't seen a typical crash cycle 26:17 What's the trade for 2026? Safety and income 28:08 PennyMac's mistake — buying Cenlar 31:58 Viewer mail34:39 Gold and silver portfolio — lots of opportunity despite volatility35:00 Closing

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen discusses the structural conflict between President Trump and incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh: Trump wants home prices to stay high, while Warsh wants to shrink the Fed's balance sheet — and "someone's going to be disappointed." Chris warns that resuming quantitative tightening could repeat the 2018 repo crisis, especially concerning given Morgan Stanley paid 45% for repo funding in Q4 2025. He breaks down the Penny Mac disaster, where Bill Pulte's $200 billion MBS buyback plan caused the stock to crash from $150 to $90 in a day, explaining why "when politicians play with markets, bad things happen." On housing, Chris argues there's no easy policy fix for affordability — prices simply need to fall 10-20% to normalize. He declares last year's speculation wave over, noting "we just ran out of runway," and advises investors to shift toward defensive positioning and stocks with cash flows. Chris remains bullish on gold and silver long-term despite recent pullbacks, urging viewers to buy the dips.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Welcome 1:13 Last year was a year of aspiration — reality is setting in 2:30 Gold and silver pullback — Chris is buying the dips 4:19 Speculative money rotating from crypto to metals (Hyperliquid) 5:00 Still bullish on gold and silver long-term 7:11 Kevin Warsh and the yield curve problem 8:20 Politicians can't control long-term rates — but they keep trying 9:43 Can Warsh shrink the balance sheet without breaking something?11:46 Trump vs. Warsh: Someone's going to be disappointed 13:23 Significant number of realtors didn't do deals last year 14:38 Housing consolidation and overcapacity 15:26 Is housing a leading or lagging indicator? 17:04 The only fix: Home prices need to fall 10-20% 19:36 The Penny Mac bombshell explained 21:40 "Our leaders are not serious people" 22:53 What would smart housing policy actually look like? 24:35 Theme for 2026: Risk off and defensive positioning 25:00 Preserving capital over speculation 26:21 "We just ran out of runway" — the end of the speculation wave  28:11 Viewer mail: Congress stuck between a rock and a hard place29:12 The two bad choices: Hyperinflation or less growth 31:14 Americans hate paying taxes — and seeing money wasted 32:20 Closing thoughts

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, calling him "the only choice" and a "classic hawk" who won't be afraid to lecture Congress on the link between deficits and inflation — something no Fed chair has done in 30 years. Chris explains why Warsh will likely shrink the balance sheet while giving Trump one or two rate cuts, and predicts the nomination may actually keep Powell on the board through 2028 just to deprive Trump of another conservative seat. On markets, Chris sees a more boring year ahead after 2025's extraordinary run, with gold and silver due for a 10-15% correction — though the bull market isn't over. He notes that crypto platforms like Hyperliquid are now trading precious metals, signaling money flowing from crypto into the "shiny object that's moving most." Chris also warns that private equity is becoming a major risk, with one in five firms now illiquid or in default, representing hundreds of billions in potential bank losses.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Welcome 1:09 Kevin Warsh nominated as Fed Chair — Chris's reaction 2:15 Warsh will have to build consensus on the FOMC 3:01 Warsh won't be afraid to link deficits and inflation 3:15 Will Warsh be more hawkish? 4:26 Warsh during the financial crisis — what to expect 5:25 The martyrdom of Jerome Powell: Yellen and Powell did too much6:04 Hard decisions the market won't like 6:15 A conservative Fed puts pressure back on Congress 7:21 Will Trump like Warsh lecturing on deficits? 7:49 Powell refusing to say if he'll stay as governor 9:32 Is staying on the board political? 10:32 What will Powell's legacy be? 12:09 The state of the Fed's balance sheet: Poor 13:21 Central banks should keep assets short — the Fed didn't 14:15 Powell's comments on the deficit being "unsustainable" 16:08 Markets: S&P briefly hit 7000 17:47 Credit-sensitive stocks under pressure, metals outperforming 18:41 Labor market and layoffs: Amazon, UPS, FedEx 19:19 Personnel costs and inflation 19:42 Gold to $5,600, silver to $110 — correction coming? 20:50 Crypto platforms now trading gold and silver 22:21 Central bank gold holdings now exceed foreign Treasury holdings24:26 Where Chris is putting his money 24:43 WGA 50 bank rankings preview 26:57 Private equity risk: 1 in 5 firms illiquid or in default 28:29 AI companies leveraged to their eyebrows 28:50 Viewer mail: Taking profits on Annaly?32:29 Parting thoughts: Earnings, Warsh, and what's ahead 34:47 Closing

0:30 - Subham Patil, Indian student, attacked on Red Line 15:47 - Homan presser 37:58 - Pro troller Josh Seiter, representing the FARTs, bamboozles AWFL 57:06 - Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, Chris Whalen, on new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh: He was the only choice and he understands how this "temple" works. Chris is also editor for The Institutional Risk Analyst theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com 01:12:24 - Paul Vallas, former CEO of CPS and former candidate for mayor, on the new federal scholarship program and CTU's War on Chicago’s Children. Follow Paul on X @PaulVallas 01:31:22 - Kevin Coyne, chairman of the DuPage GOP: JB Pritzker is every IL republicans opponent. Join the DuPage GOP for their Lincoln Day Dinner - Friday February 27 - for more details dupagegop.com/2026-lincoln-day-dinner 01:51:01 - Senior writer for the Washington Examiner & cohost of the “You’re Wrong” podcast, David Harsanyi: Protest Culture Is Annoying and Un-American. Check out David’s most recent book The Rise of BlueAnon: How the Democrats Became a Party of Conspiracy Theorists 02:06:36 - Open Mic Friday!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down President Trump's Davos speech, noting that despite promises on housing affordability, the administration has no real plan to lower prices — and Trump explicitly said he doesn't want home prices to fall. Chris explains why that won't matter: hot markets like San Diego and Florida are already cooling, and he predicts a significant correction by 2028 that could push prices back to 2020-21 levels, leaving every mortgage made since COVID underwater. He warns that Trump will "run the economy hot" to win the midterms, with consequences to pay afterward. On rates, Chris explains why long-term yields keep rising despite Fed cuts and what happens if a new Fed chairman loses an FOMC vote. He also discusses gold's march toward $5,000, calling it "the return of gold" as central banks worldwide reverse 70 years of policy, and weighs in on the FDIC's approval of Ford and GM to establish deposit-taking banks.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira802Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Welcome and intro 0:50 Trump at Davos: Greenland walkback and housing 2:55 The two sides of housing: Owners vs. buyers 4:00 401(k) withdrawals for down payments — does it help? 5:00 Why stoking demand pushes prices higher 6:17 Hot markets cool first: San Diego, Florida, Carolinas 7:58 Demographics and housing: Boomers vs. millennials 8:37 Rate cuts coming and the 2028 correction 9:35 What happens if prices fall 20%? Every post-COVID loan underwater10:10 Signs to watch for a broader market shift in 2026 12:36 Why long-term rates rise when the Fed cuts 14:15 How lenders are feeling right now 15:14 Gold closing in on $5,000 16:28 Trump will run the economy hot for the midterms 18:05 You pay for it after the election 18:51 What if the new Fed chair loses an FOMC vote? 21:00 What should the Fed actually be doing? 22:45 The asymmetry of gold and silver investments 26:32 The return of gold: Central banks reverse 70 years of policy 27:06 Peter Schiff's crisis call — does Chris buy it? 28:36 FDIC approves Ford and GM banks — what it means 32:46 Viewer mail: Gold as a hedge for real estate 33:45 Viewer mail: Stable coins debate 35:30 Closing

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." In this episode of The Wrap, Whalen breaks down why GSE release is officially off the table after Trump ordered them to buy back their own debt—a move Whalen calls "politics" driven by midterm election fears. He shares his take on crypto as "a polite form of gambling," explains why he prefers gold over silver despite silver's recent run, and dives deep into the housing market's affordability crisis. Whalen reveals his biggest concern for 2026: the hidden risks in private equity and credit, calling them "rancid pools of illiquid, opaque assets" that could cause major bank losses. He also weighs in on the DOJ's subpoena of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, predicting Kevin Warsh will likely be the next Fed chair, and closes with his outlook on markets, the dollar, and bank stocks.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Welcome back to the Wrap with Chris Whalen0:30 GSE release officially off the table?2:32 The $200 billion announcement is politics 4:08 Political landscape and midterm elections 4:49 Crypto legislation falls apart 5:14 Crypto as speculation vs. gold & silver 6:40 Silver's short squeeze and volatility 8:30 Gold vs. silver as long-term trades 9:07 Copper and Dr. Copper as economic indicator 10:10 Housing policy and affordability crisis 12:10 Will the Fed allow home prices to fall? 14:30 Bank earnings season takeaways 16:50 Consumer delinquencies and economic warning signs 18:12 The hidden risk in private equity and credit 19:48 The "POOP" problem in private lending 21:42 Private credit as a ticking time bomb 22:58 Jerome Powell's DOJ subpoena 24:21 Kevin Warsh and the future of the Fed 27:05 Could the Fed resume MBS purchases? 28:56 Viewer question: NLY/Annaly REIT 30:52 Parting thoughts and 2026 outlook 31:46 Closing

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." In this episode, Whalen calls Trump's $200 billion mortgage bond buyback idea "idiotic" and says institutional investors aren't the problem with housing - the Fed buying 30-year mortgages and driving up home prices 50% in five years was the real culprit. He explains the Fed has been "operating like a hedge fund" with dangerous variable duration securities that won't pay off for over 10 years. On Venezuela, Whalen says it should have happened long ago - the Iranians had offensive missiles there that could strike the US, and he's astounded previous administrations tolerated it. He warns AI hype is now a systemic risk to tech valuations, with Oracle's Larry Ellison risking his company to chase the crowd, and predicts 2025's "magical year with no apparent cost for risk" is ending as banks prepare for consumer credit deterioration in 2026-27.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira796Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:00:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen00:48 Non-farm payrolls report - weakness supports those saying economy is weak01:46 Rate cuts likely this year on short end, but long-term rates not coming down02:45 Trump's $200 billion mortgage bond idea - Chris calls it "idiotic"07:25 Housing correction already building in weaker markets08:24 Institutional investors not the problem - Fed buying 30-year mortgages was the problem12:04 What would actually help housing? Build more houses, change zoning13:04 NYC 18:16 Venezuela should have happened long ago24:49 AI hype now a systemic risk to tech valuations?27:06 Buying cheap financials - Flagstar below book, knows the team28:39 2025 magical year with no apparent cost for risk - that's changing30:05 Bank earnings next week30:35 Viewer question: Deregulation impact on banks and real estate32:53 Viewer question: If correction coming, wouldn't metals also fall?34:52 Wrap up and parting thoughts

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen" for his 2026 outlook.In this episode, Whalen warns of a market correction comparable to 2008, driven by carnage in private equity where hundreds of companies cannot be sold and sponsors are selling companies to themselves. After a decade-and-a-half Fed liquidity party, he predicts corporate credit will worsen in 2026, setting the stage for a housing market decline in 2027-28. Whalen reveals fraud has become epidemic in housing thanks to AI-altered bank statements, discusses the global power shift as Shanghai now sets gold prices (not Chicago or London), and explains why Powell will likely stay on the Fed board through 2028 to protect the institution - betraying Trump just like every Fed chair before him.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira794Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Intro and welcome back to The Wrap with Chris Whalen01:25 2025 retrospective3:35 Big stories of 2026 05:30 Midterms 08:21 Maxi market correction coming alongside 2008 in textbooks15:09 Will Powell retire or remain on the board?16:45 Will we see a more hawkish Fed in 2026?17:50 Default rates21:25 What happens with housing in 202622:42 Drawing parallels to the Gilded Age26:29 Gold and silver - another good year ahead32:41 Viewer question: Annaly mortgage REIT common vs preferred36:48 What's on the radar next week: Big investment banks piece38:18 Wrap up and where to find Chris Whalen

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." In this episode, Chris Whalen breaks down why Kevin Hassett may have blown his chances for Fed Chair by walking back Trump's views, discusses Kevin Warsh as the emerging frontrunner, and explains his reform proposal to return to a decentralized Fed with 15 district banks focused solely on sound money. He reveals why Trump's rhetoric about interest rates is backfiring (pushing the 10-year UP instead of down), predicts a home price correction in 2027-28, and explains why 3% inflation is now the new target. Whalen also discusses why gold and silver are still in early innings, how commercial real estate pain is being quietly resolved in the background, why good bank numbers mask concerning private credit risks, and answers a viewer question about BOJ rate hikes potentially triggering a broader correction.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira785Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   https://international-economy.com/TIE_Su25_Whalen.pdfTimestamps:00:00 Welcome Chris Whalen01:10 Kevin Hassett: Did he blow his chances for Fed Chair?03:38 Reforming the Fed: Decentralized model vs FDR's changes04:11 How decentralization would change Fed policy06:08 Fed must be independent of President, not Congress07:44 Post-1935 power concentration with Fed Chair08:11 How centralization distorted monetary policy09:17 Has the Fed been acting like its own hedge fund?10:30 Home price correction coming in 2027-2811:14 Subscribe reminder11:52 Trump's rate talk pushing yields UP not down12:56 Advice to Trump: Talk about growth and jobs, not rates14:09 Kevin Warsh as emerging frontrunner for Fed Chair15:17 Scrap the dual mandate, focus on sound currency16:41 CPI print this week: 3% is the new target17:23 Raising conforming limits encourages more inflation18:42 Gold, sound money, and what Treasury should do20:14 Is sound money viable?21:33 Roosevelt's New Deal legacy and today's problems22:53 Silver all-time high, gold north of $4,300 - still early innings24:22 Commercial real estate pain and which banks are exposed27:10 Private credit, NDFIs and why good bank numbers are concerning29:37 Inflation driving everything in New York and beyond30:22 Viewer question: BOJ rate hikes and impact on risk assets31:44 Wrap up, year-end predictions preview and where to find Chris

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Whalen breaks down the latest FOMC meeting, revealing a divided Fed with no clear consensus on future rate cuts. He predicts a home price correction coming and also warns of a brewing crisis in private equity, where 15-20% of companies are insolvent and relying on payment-in-kind structures. Whalen also discusses JPMorgan's surprise expense guidance this week, the Fed's Reserve Management Purchases (and whether it's QE by another name), and explains why the commercial real estate market remains a major risk. He expects higher bank earnings next year despite hidden dangers in lending to non-depository financial institutions, and shares his skeptical view on stablecoins and AI infrastructure spending.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira785Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:00:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen00:49 FOMC meeting recap04:03 Inflation as the #1 issue for Americans05:13 Home price correction coming06:03 Commercial real estate crisis deepening07:25 Fed's Reserve Management Purchases explained09:22 Fed managing liquidity into year-end11:35 JPMorgan's surprise expense guidance14:33 NDFIs: Lending reminiscent of 1920s practices15:45 Private equity insolvency crisis? (15-20% insolvent)16:51 Deflationary risk from forced asset sales22:45 Private credit hidden risk23:53 2026 outlook24:24 Ginnie Mae vs Fannie/Freddie liquidity problem26:28 Do stablecoins make sense?27:56 Oracle CDS spiking and AI infrastructure spending30:27 Viewer question: Fed control over mortgage rates33:33 Viewer question: Manufacturing renaissance under Trump?34:57 Viewer question: Are 10-year treasuries a good investment now?36:16 Wrap up and where to find Chris Whalen

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Whalen breaks down what's ahead for the Federal Reserve and financial markets as we head into 2026. He discusses Kevin Hassett as the likely next Fed Chair, explaining why Fed independence is more myth than reality and how political pressures will influence rate decisions ahead of the midterm elections. Whalen analyzes the upcoming FOMC meeting, commercial real estate risks, and why he's not concerned about an imminent market crisis despite ongoing concerns about the Treasury market and credit conditions. He also tackles why the Fed's 2% inflation target may be outdated and explains the K-shaped economy that has consumers and investors feeling divided about the recovery. Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira785Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:00:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen01:07 Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair pick?03:10 Fed independence and political dynamics05:00 Midterm elections and rate cut pressure09:28 FOMC meeting preview, Fed worried about being "late to the party"11:27 Importance of mortgage rates over fed funds15:18 State of the economy, no crisis coming 16:56 Bitcoin and crypto market discussion19:33 Commercial real estate reality check23:29 Private credit myths and reality25:00 Viewer question: Bank preferred stocks 26:50 Viewer question: Why the 2% inflation target?28:14 Inflation vs deflation in asset markets30:00 Biggest risks entering 202630:27 Surprise events and systemic risk31:21 K-shaped economy and recovery paths33:00 Wrap up and where to find Chris Whalen

0:30 - BLM on shootings by Chicago Theater Friday night 16:40 - How a City Dies 38:47 - MTG fare the well 01:02:39 - Trump/Mamdani meeting 01:22:40 - Visiting fellow at The Heritage Foundation, Steven Bucci, on the proposed Russia-Ukraine peace plan: “It smells like capitulation.” 01:44:42 - Chris Whalen, Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and editor of The Institutional Risk Analyst, on the affordability crisis and where Bitcoin is headed. Check out Chris’ most recent book Inflated: Money, Debt and the American Dream – 2nd Edition 02:03:07 - Former Chicago Police Lt. John Garrido on the weekend Loop shootings: the missing resource was the snap curfew ordinance the mayor vetoed. John is also President of the Garrido Stray Rescue Foundation – garridostrayrescue.org 02:21:29 - Joseph Bottum, visiting chair in conservative thought and policy at University of Colorado's Benson Center for the Study of Western Civilization, on his look to see if college kids can read - “I want to weep for academia”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Whalen breaks down why markets are heading into a turbulent year-end. With the Treasury pulling $1 trillion out of the banking system and the Fed holding emergency meetings with dealers, a liquidity crunch is brewing just as big banks close their books after Thanksgiving. Chris explains why there won't be a December rate cut despite Fed happy talk, why the "silent crisis" in commercial real estate and private credit is spreading to insurance companies holding retail investors' annuities, and why public companies with Bitcoin exposure are about to report massive losses at year-end. Plus: the housing correction has officially begun as home price appreciation goes flat and GSEs start marking down property values. Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: Is it November 2018 All Over Again?: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira778Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Intro: Welcome back to The Wrap with Chris Whalen 0:41 No consensus for Fed cut in December2:22 Why John Williams' "happy talk" doesn't matter 4:35 Treasury is the gorilla: $1 trillion drained from markets4:58 Year-end liquidity crisis brewing 6:24 What that emergency Fed meeting was really all about8:40 Bitcoin's ugly fall14:45 Housing correction ahead? 27:04 What Chris Is Watching: Money markets and bank earnings 28:47 Commercial real estate & private credit pain 30:29 Where to find Chris and final thoughts

To understand market weakness, Chris Whalen says investors need to be paying attention to the Fed's balance sheet and U.S. Treasury moves. He notes that the Treasury has been “sucking cash” out of the market. Combining that with a shrinking Fed balance sheet has “contributed to what we're seeing in stocks.” He touches on difficulties in private credit and thinks investors should be wary of leveraged companies. Chris also looks at mortgages and the banking sector, highlighting SoFi (SOFI) and Fiserv (FI).======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for the debut of his weekly segment "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Markets hit all-time highs this week before pulling back sharply as the Fed ended quantitative tightening amid growing liquidity stress in money markets—echoing the dangerous conditions of November 2018 when Chairman Powell nearly crashed the system. Whalen warns we're seeing the same warning signs: tightening liquidity, basis trades breaking down, and a Fed flying blind without proper tools to measure reserve availability. Meanwhile, cracks are appearing across markets—from Bitcoin's retreat below $100k to BlackRock's stunning 100% writedown on private debt it valued at par just weeks ago.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: Is it November 2018 All Over Again?: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira778Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 - Introduction: New weekly segment "The Wrap with Chris Whalen" 0:42 - Markets this week: biggest decline since April 2:34 - Treasury General Account and bank reserves 6:50 - December rate cut now 50-50 toss up 8:14 - Economy still bubbling along robustly 8:39 - If big sell-off, Fed will start QE again 10:40 - Is it November 2018 all over again? 14:38 - Are we setting up for another repo crisis? 17:27 - Bitcoin fell below $95,000 - what's it signaling? 20:50 - Gold discussion: most investors under-invested 24:44 - Private credit concerns 25:48 - Government shutdown resolution 28:29 - Mortgage markets and housing policy 30:00 - Closing remarks and what to watch next week

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns for an in-person conversation for episode 303. Whalen warns that stocks and crypto are slowing down as they run out of buyers, while real estate pain continues with older assets selling at discounts and more trouble ahead for private equity and private credit. He attributes Zohran Mamdani's NYC mayoral victory to inflation-driven affordability concerns, predicts a home price correction by 2027-28, and expects continued corporate exodus from New York City as long-term leases roll off. Whalen criticizes the Fed for pushing home prices up 50% since COVID and failing their mandate on price stability, discusses widespread fraud in private credit markets, and highlights Bank of America's duration risk mistakes compared to JPMorgan and Citi. He's currently focused on gold and junior mining stocks, explaining the "debasement trade" as central banks worldwide shift to gold as their primary reserve asset, while predicting crypto will "go bye-bye" and calling stablecoins a dead end.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaThis episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links:    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Timestamps:0:00 - Welcome and introduction1:02 - Reaction to Mamdani election2:03 - Is this the product of inflation?2:10 - Inflation driving affordability issues, Fed's failure2:54 - Heading into correction in home prices by 2027-285:26 - How mortgage lenders set rates vs. bond market6:33 - Will we see a housing emergency declared?12:08 - Outlook for New York for next four years14:59 - Big picture view: stocks and crypto slowing down15:30 - Pain in real estate, private equity, and private credit20:37 - Duration risk story at banks27:47 - Will we get December rate cut?29:17 - Fed funds rate targeting piece32:49 - Chris's portfolio: taking acorns off the table35:59 - The debasement trade39:36 - Crypto going bye-bye, stable coins a dead end42:05 - Closing remarks

Chris Whalen, founder at Whalen Global Advisors, speaks on the latest concerns in the market and in private credit with Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Paul SweeneySee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

0:30 - NJ, VA 16:47 - ICE incident on SE side 37:47 - Tom Homan on the Open Borders Crowd's "end game" 01:00:35 - National political reporter Salena Zito says to keep an eye on New Jersey - Republicans are paying attention this time. For Salena’s latest SalenaZito.com and check out her newest book Butler: The Untold Story of the Near Assassination of Donald Trump and the Fight for America’s Heartland 01:19:47 - Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and editor of The Institutional Risk Analyst, analyzes the shifting dynamics of America’s financial relationships with China, the EU, and Argentina. Check out Chris’ most recent book Inflated: Money, Debt and the American Dream – 2nd Edition 01:39:03 - Why Dan Proft is Single 01:56:50 - Keira Knightley asked about fans boycotting JK Rowling over trans 02:12:56 - Senior Counsel at America First Legal Foundation, James Rogers, separates fact from political theater in Gov. Pritzker’s threats to prosecute ICE agents. For more on America First Legal Foundation aflegal.orgSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this week's episode of WSJ's Take On the Week, co-hosts Telis Demos is joined by Miriam Gottfried to tackle gold's continued rally. They discuss the debate over whether its surge is a bet against the U.S. dollar or simply "catastrophe insurance" against a faltering AI-led stock market. Plus, with the U.S. government shutdown delaying key economic reports, investors are turning to Bank of America, Carlyle Group and likely this week's bank earnings for clues on the economy's health. After the break, Telis is joined by Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, and they get into this week's coming earnings from JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and more. Whalen explains why real trouble is brewing for banks in commercial real estate and private equity. And he shares what indicators he is looking out for in their earnings this coming week. This is WSJ's Take On the Week where co-hosts Gunjan Banerji, lead writer for Live Markets, and Telis Demos, Heard on the Street's banking and money columnist, cut through the noise and dive into markets, the economy and finance—the big trades, key players and business news ahead. Have an idea for a future guest or episode? How can we better help you take on the week? We'd love to hear from you. Email the show at takeontheweek@wsj.com. To watch the video version of this episode, visit our WSJ Podcasts YouTube channel or the video page of WSJ.com Further Reading: Gold Prices Top $4,000 for First Time Gold Screams ‘Debasement Trade.' Bonds Say Otherwise. Stocks Fall After Report Raises Concerns About AI Profitability A New Wall Street Trade Is Powering Gold and Hitting Currencies The Unofficial Jobs Numbers Are In and It's Rough Out There Big Banks Are Spinning Market Chaos Into Gold Credit-Card Users Are Cautious Now. Rate Cuts Could Open the Floodgates. Want to Know Where the Economy Is Headed? Look at These Banks For more coverage of the markets and your investments, head to WSJ.com, WSJ's Heard on The Street Column, and WSJ's Live Markets blog. Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter.  Follow Gunjan Banerji here and Telis Demos here.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, explains why Americans remain uncomfortable with gold despite it hitting new highs - it implies dollar weakness after 150 years of reserve currency dominance. He reveals FDR seized the Federal Reserve's gold in 1933 with little compensation, while today US gold allocation sits under 1% of portfolios versus growing central bank accumulation. Whalen defends his call for earlier Fed cuts. He sees gold reaching $5,000+ by end of 2026 as US allocations shift from under 1% toward 2%, while warning the average person without assets continues getting screwed as the Fed will eventually monetize Treasury issuance through financial repression.Sponsor: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links:    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Timestamps:0:00 Welcome and introduction - Chris Whalen's first in-studio appearance0:24 Julia's introduction highlighting Chris's credentials and analysis1:16 Fed takeaway - Steve Miran only governor wanting 50bp cut2:19 Housing emergency coming - Fed drove prices up, Trump faces constraint2:31 Housing scenarios - mortgage rates retreating after quarter point4:17 Monetary Metals ad read5:34 Housing psychology - homeowners trying to sell at the top6:53 Office space comparison - no longer premium asset class7:38 Fed rate cut outlook - may not see more cuts for months9:58 Bank balance sheet problems - mortgage securities underwater10:54 Politics of inflation - housing affordability crisis13:10 Viewer housing question response - Florida 1924 parallels15:32 DC trip on GSEs - still no roadmap from Treasury18:43 Fannie/Freddie trade - made 30% then got out19:54 Taking profits22:36 Watching the herd mentality25:20 Dollar/deficit thesis - weaker dollar, Treasury pressure ahead27:47 Fed restructuring vision - eliminate Board of Governors31:09 Housing emergency declaration - resuming MBS purchases discussion33:51 Mixed economy - wealthy vs bottom quartile struggling34:34 Debt myths - Americans love inflation, debt is currency36:18 Highest conviction trade - gold and strategic silver

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show for an in-person episode to recap the FOMC, discuss the state of the economy, housing, and his highest conviction ideas.Sponsor: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links:    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Timestamps:0:00 Welcome and introduction - Chris Whalen's first in-studio appearance0:24 Julia's introduction highlighting Chris's credentials and analysis1:16 Fed takeaway - Steve Miran only governor wanting 50bp cut2:19 Housing emergency coming - Fed drove prices up, Trump faces constraint2:31 Housing scenarios - mortgage rates retreating after quarter point4:17 Monetary Metals ad read5:34 Housing psychology - homeowners trying to sell at the top6:53 Office space comparison - no longer premium asset class7:38 Fed rate cut outlook - may not see more cuts for months9:58 Bank balance sheet problems - mortgage securities underwater10:54 Politics of inflation - housing affordability crisis13:10 Viewer housing question response - Florida 1924 parallels15:32 DC trip on GSEs - still no roadmap from Treasury18:43 Fannie/Freddie trade - made 30% then got out19:54 Taking profits22:36 Watching the herd mentality25:20 Dollar/deficit thesis - weaker dollar, Treasury pressure ahead27:47 Fed restructuring vision - eliminate Board of Governors31:09 Housing emergency declaration - resuming MBS purchases discussion33:51 Mixed economy - wealthy vs bottom quartile struggling34:34 Debt myths - Americans love inflation, debt is currency36:18 Highest conviction trade - gold and strategic silver

"The Fed playing God with the US economy and trying things they weren't sure would work," says Chris Whalen, chairman of Whelan Global Advisors. In today's interview with Daniela Cambone, Whalen criticizes the Fed's unconventional monetary policies—particularly the low interest rates and quantitative easing implemented during COVID. Now, the Fed is reversing some of that policy, shrinking its balance sheet and reducing liquidity in the system. Chris warns that the Fed is again experimenting with high-stakes economic levers, creating uncertainty in money markets and increasing the potential for stress in banks and the financial system."We're seeing 100% loss on those [commercial real estate (CRE) and apartment building] loans when they default," he adds.As for protecting investors, he stresses caution and opportunism: "Look for stability and income—treasuries, preferred stocks, reliable dividend payers. Gold must be a core part of your holdings."✅ FREE RESOURCESDownload The Private Wealth Playbook — a data-backed guide to strategically acquiring gold and silver for maximum protection, privacy, and performance. Plus, get Daniela Cambone's Top 10 Lessons to safeguard your wealth (FREE)