Podcast appearances and mentions of chris whalen

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog and author of "Inflated: Money, Debt and the American Dream," returns to the show with a monthly update on markets and the economy.Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/juliaIn this episode, Whalen argues the Fed's easy money era is over, with no rate cuts coming this year and traditional monetary policy failing to help Main Street. He warns of a "silent subprime crisis" brewing in multifamily real estate and sees stagflation ahead - low growth with persistent inflation eating away at real purchasing power. Whalen advocates for gold as protection against currency debasement and explains why recession odds have dropped to 27% despite structural economic challenges from commercial real estate to student loan repayments as pandemic-era programs wind down.Links:    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Timestamps:00:10 - Introduction of Chris Whalen 02:11 - Big picture market outlook and elevated interest rates 04:30 - No rate cuts coming this year discussion 05:38 - Trump's "big beautiful bill" and Senate dynamics 06:17 - Fed balance sheet reduction and inflation persistence 08:02 - Silent subprime crisis in multifamily real estate 09:13 - Mixed bag stock market outlook explanation 10:42 - Recession probability13:20 - Real estate opportunities and putting deals together 14:04 - Jay Gould and Jim Fisk arbitrage between gold and paper 16:57 - Fed's 2% inflation policy and its impact on savers 18:20 - Gold as anti-dollar hedge discussion 19:38 - Fall of fiat and return to sound money debate 21:00 - Why dropping rates no longer stimulates Main Street 22:13 - Chris's proposal to freeze government spending 24:11 - Banking system fluff and lack of credit demand 25:46 - Real vs nominal growth and stagflation 27:43 - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac conservatorship discussion 30:00 - Closing thoughts and where to find Chris's work

Author and financial expert, Chris Whelan, joins Keith as they explore the intricacies of the housing market's potential future. Chris drops an intriguing prediction of a possible 20% price correction. They dive deep into the complex world of real estate, examining the pandemic's significant impact on mortgages and economic trends. The conversation reveals the behind-the-scenes challenges of the housing market, from government interventions to the nuanced effects of interest rates and forbearance programs. They unpack the struggles in commercial real estate, particularly highlighting the unique challenges in markets like New York's rent-controlled properties. Chris's new book "Inflated: Money, Debt, and the American Dream" promises an insightful journey through America's economic transformation, tracing how the nation evolved from an agrarian society to a global economic powerhouse. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/556 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, what's the state of the housing market for the next five years, and could what's happening in the foreclosure market affect it? I see relative housing market price stability. My guest sees cracks. This could be somewhat of a debate today, then two great new cash flow and real estate markets in the same state that we're helping your portfolio with on get rich education, mid south home buyers, I mean, they're total pros, with over two decades as the nation's highest rated turnkey provider. Their empathetic property managers use your ROI as their North Star. So it's no wonder that smart investors just keep lining up to get their completely renovated income properties like it's the newest iPhone. They're headquartered in Memphis and have globally attractive cash flows and A plus rating with the Better Business Bureau and now over 5000 houses renovated. There's zero markup on maintenance. Let that sink in, and they average a 98.9% occupancy rate, while their average renter stays more than three and a half years. Every home they offer has brand new components, a bumper to bumper, one year warranty, new 30 year roofs. And wait for it, a high quality renter, remember that part and in an astounding price range, 100 to 180k I've personally toured their office and their properties in person in Memphis, get to know Mid South. Enjoy cash flow from day one. Start yourself right now at mid southhomebuyers.com that's mid south homebuyers.com.   Corey Coates  1:56   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  2:12   Welcome to GRE from Edison, New Jersey to Edinburgh, Scotland, where I am today, and across 188 nations worldwide, I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are back for another wealth building week on get rich education. Today's guest came to me recommended. It came from a guest that we've had on the show here before, Jim Rickards and his daughter Ally Rickards. His name is Christopher Whelan. He has a distinguished background. Comes from a prominent family, and he's the author of a new book that just published a few weeks ago. His father, Richard Whelan, was the biographer of Joe Kennedy, and was advisor to presidents and Fed chairman and today's guest, his son there, Chris. He has done a lot of work in DC. He lives just north of New York City today. So I guess coming recommended from Jim Rickards and learning a few things about today's guest helped me want to host him on the show. So though I'm just meeting him for the first time right here on the show, as it turns out, I learned that he has mentioned on other channels that real estate prices could correct down 20% and fall back to 2020 levels. I absolutely don't see how that's possible in any way. I'm going to bring that up with him, so we'll see. This could turn into somewhat of a debate. Like I said last week, I believe that significantly falling housing prices. That's about as likely as grocery store prices falling back to 2020 levels. Yes, I am in Edinburgh, Scotland today. It's my first time here. My mom, dad and also my brother's entire family came over from the US to meet up. It's been great. We're taking in all the best sites, Edinburgh Castle, other castles, the Scottish Highlands, Loch Ness, though I don't believe in any Loch Ness monster at all. I mean, come on, what a hoax. And we're seeing some other sites, though it didn't really interest the others, which I could understand. I visited the home where Adam Smith once resided, and I might put my video about that on our get rich education YouTube channel, so you could check that out over there. Of course, Adam Smith is considered the father of modern day economics for his work on supply versus demand and the GDP concept, the invisible hand, concept, much of that work conveyed in his magnum opus, The Wealth of Nations, published in 1776 as for the present day, let's meet this week's guest, including me, meeting him for the first time.     I'd like to welcome in a first time guest. He's the author of a widely acclaimed new book. It's named inflated money, debt and the American dream. It just released, and the book couldn't be more timely with the multitude of challenges related to inflation, many involving the housing market in his earlier books, he's been known, frankly, for just telling his readers the truth. He's worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in politics and as an investment banker for more than 30 years. Today, he runs Whalen Global Advisors. You've seen him on CNBC in the Wall Street Journal, and now you're hearing him on GRE Welcome to the show. Chris Whalen.   Chris Whalen  5:43   Thank you, Keith, appreciate your invitation.    Keith Weinhold  5:45   Whalen is spelled W, H, A, l, e, n, if you're listening in the audio only, Hey, Chris, we're in a really interesting time in the economic cycle. We all know the Fed has a dual mandate, high employment and stable prices. What's interesting to me is, late last year, they cut rates by a full 1% and this is despite inflation being above target. Makes me wonder if they care more about high employment and they're rather willing to let inflation float higher. What are your thoughts?    Chris Whalen  6:18   I think historically, that's been the case. You know, the dual mandate Humphrey Hawkins, that drives the Fed's actions today was a largely socialist compromise between the Republicans and the Democrats. The Democrats wanted to guarantee everybody a job after World War Two, the legislation was really about soldiers and people who had served their country in many, you know, places around the world, for a long time, and then you would have the depression. So you had a whole generation or more of people that were looking for help when they came home. And that's what this was. But today, you know, there's another mandate, which is called keeping the treasury bond market open. We saw it was during COVID in 2020 President Trump got up, declared that people didn't have to pay their rent or their mortgages, and then didn't do anything. There was no follow up. At the time, folks in mortgage industry kind of looked at each other funny for about 60 days and said, What's going to happen? Because they have to advance principal, interest, taxes and insurance to protect the house. The first rule in mortgage finances protect the asset. But it all worked because the Fed dropped interest rates to zero and we had a boom. We refinanced two thirds of every mortgage in the United States, and that cash flow allowed the finance forbearance for millions of Americans. Now the unfortunate part, of course, was home prices went up double digits for six years. So why we had no affordability today? So, you know, it helped, but it certainly didn't help in some ways,   Keith Weinhold  7:48   mortgage loan forbearance back in the COVID era about five years ago, where you could basically just skip your mortgage payment and then they increase the overall duration of your loan period.   Chris Whalen  8:00   That's right. So you know, your government market, your conforming market, were falling. They also had various schemes, state forbearance for non agency loans. Nobody thought at all about the multifamily sector and the developers that didn't get paid for two years. And we're feeling the impact of that. Of course, today, that's probably the biggest pain point in US economy today is commercial real estate and multi family real estate, and neither one of them involves a consumer. So it gets no attention at all. You read about it in the specialty press, but that's about it.    Keith Weinhold  8:34   And by talking about multi family not affecting the consumer, you're just talking about who's on the owner side there?   Chris Whalen  8:40   precisely if all of the consumers have problems, you'd hear about it, and you do, especially in some of the blue states. I live in New York, so we have some of the more aggressive rent stabilization, rent control laws in the country. And they go back to World War Two. They go back almost a century,   Keith Weinhold  8:58   right? It's those people in the one to four unit space in residential real estate investing that really got the help there.    Chris Whalen  9:06   Well, at least, you know, the world didn't end. Imagine if all of those people had gone to foreclosure. The industry wouldn't have done that. Of course, they would have thrown up their hands and cried for help. But the point is, they made it work. But the cost of making it work that zero interest rate regime that the Fed put in place is still being felt today. If you look at banks which typically have prime large mortgages on their books, the loss given default is zero. Home prices are so high that if somebody actually goes to foreclosure, they sell the house, they pay off the loan easily, and there's usually a large residual left, which would go to the homeowner. So today, you know, if somebody gets in trouble, we do a short sale, we do a deed in lieu, and off they go. And that's why the stats don't show you the pain that many American families are feeling today, because about 60% of all payoffs of one to four family mortgages are people who. Are exiting the market, they're not going to buy another house. So what that means is that the cost of home ownership, or whatever other factors are involved, has made them make the decision not to go to another home mortgage.    Keith Weinhold  10:13   Yes, we have this historically low affordability that's beginning to be reflected in the home ownership rate. It's trended down from about 66 to 65% recently, we continue to be in this environment here, Chris in the one to four unit space, where those existing homeowners are in really good shape. They have record high equity levels of over 300k A lot of them have their home paid off. About 40% of American homeowners own their home free and clear, and of the remainder, those borrowers, 82% still have a mortgage rate of under 5% and of course, that principal and interest payment stays fixed. So even if there's economic hardship, it's pretty easy for people to make their payments and stay in their homes.   Chris Whalen  11:02   Well, it certainly is for most of the marketplace. If you look at the bottom 20% the FHA market, also the VA market, there's a little more stress there. There's still an awful lot of people who are in various types of forbearance in that market. That's going to end in October. So the Trump administration is pushing most of the rules back to pre COVID approaches for delinquency, for example, what we call the waterfall. And what that basically means is that if an FHA borrower gets in trouble, they'll have one shot at a modification where they lower the loan cost and stick part of the loan out the back to be paid off when the house is sold. If that doesn't take, if they don't re perform, then they're going to go to a foreclosure. We just ended another program for veterans. You know, they had three weeks notice, so now you're going to see a lot of veterans going to foreclosure. Unfortunately.   Keith Weinhold  11:56   yes, this administration is basically making sure that people are responsible or resume their payments. We've seen that student loan repayments needing to resume as well. Most foreclosure rate types are still pretty low, but yes, FHA foreclosure rates are higher than those for conventional loans.    Chris Whalen  12:15   Yeah, the interesting thing is, the veterans delinquency rate is half of the FHA rate, and even though people in uniform don't make a lot of money, they pay their bills. Yeah, it's quite striking.   Keith Weinhold  12:25   Why don't you talk to us more about areas where you see distress in the housing market before we talk about more inflation? Chris, the   Chris Whalen  12:34   key areas of housing stress at the moment are commercial real estate that has become underutilized. COVID drove a lot of this, but also the fact that industries could change their work practices. It could have people work from home. Look at housing. We sent everybody home in 2020 while we increased headcount by a third to address a surge in lending volume. It was insane. I gotta tell you, we were hiring people that we didn't see for months that changed the business model assumptions for a lot of industries. A lot of them moved out of blue states and went down to Florida and Texas. In the mortgage industry particularly, and so we have a lot of older real estate particularly, that is suffering. It has dropped in terms of appraised values. You also have higher interest rates and higher cap rates, that is to say the assumption of returns on the part of investors. So that hurdle has made a lot of these properties impaired, essentially. And then the other subclass is older multifamily properties. Think about those beautiful old apartments in the middle block up on the east side or the west side of Manhattan. They're not big enough to be viable, and so they have become this kind of subprime asset class, much in the way if you recall the signature bank failure, they typically bank these sorts of real estate properties, and now there's nobody that wants them. I think you're going to see some very specific pain coming out of HUD, and also Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac because they bank some of these smaller properties that really aren't bankable by commercial banks. That's what it comes down to. If you're going to read about this and hear about it a lot in the commercial market over next several years. And again, you know, the losses on bank owned multifamily properties today are averaging 100% so that means that there are a lot that have more expenses than simply losing the full loan amount. And you know, if you want to have a bank loan, they're not taking these properties. They don't want them, right? So the bank, REO rate, if you look at the data from the FDIC, is zero. And what that tells you is that they can't sell the properties they don't want them, because if they take ownership, the city's not going to let them abandon the property. They'll have to keep it and maintain it. It's a tough situation. This is. Has evolved over the last 20 years or so, because consumer incomes have been kind of stagnant in real terms. But the cost of operating a property in New York City is not going down. It's going up quite a lot, and the legislation we've seen from Albany doesn't allow owners to recapture expenses, doesn't allow them to renovate apartments. So if I have a rent stabilized apartment, I'll use a real example, in a beautiful building on Central Park South right, to renovate a unit that's been occupied for 20 years, new kitchen, new bathroom, sir, everything services. That's $150,000 so if I'm the owner and I can't recapture that cost. What do I do? I lock the door, I gut the apartment, and I lock the door, and I hope that the laws will change in the future, because I can't rent it, my insurance underwriter will not allow me to rent out an apartment that's not brought up to code. That's New York law, but the folks in Albany don't care about that. We have some really unreasonable people in positions of authority, unfortunately, in some of these states, and you talk to them about these issues, and they don't care. They just pander to consumers, regardless of whether or not it makes sense or not. And that's just the way it is.   Keith Weinhold  16:15   Those evil landlords, quote, unquote, most right evil. They're just mom and pop investors that are trying to beat inflation with real assets, and they have real expenses. Rent Stabilization basically just being a genteel term for rent control, which gives no one an incentive to improve a property for sure   Chris Whalen  16:35   and it reduces the availability of housing ultimately, because nobody builds. You see that in New York right now the home market is pretty tight, up to the conforming limit for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac so you figure a million, 1,000,002 here in New York. But above that, it's quieted down quite a lot. There's compression in some of the higher end homes. And you know, if you go down south, you see a different problem, which is over building. They didn't want to build here, so they went down to the Carolinas and Texas and Florida. There's a huge amount of both multi family condo type developments and single family homes too. But above that average price level way above half a million dollars.   Keith Weinhold  17:15   Sure, it's made this dynamic where things have been flip flopped in the Northeast and Midwest, where the populations aren't growing very fast, those markets have been appreciating more than those in the high growth southeast, all coming back to supply. They're not bringing on enough new supply in the Northeast and Midwest, Chris has just laid out a few reasons for that, due to this high regulation. And then in the southeast, a high growth area, even though that's where people are moving, we're not getting much appreciation there, because you're able to build and that supply is able to keep up with demand. Well, Chris and I are going to talk more about the housing market and about inflation. When we come back, you're listening to get rich education. Our guest is Chris Whelan, the author of a great new book. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.   the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your pre qual and even chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. While it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com. That's Ridge lendinggroup.com.    You know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family to 66866.   Kathy Fettke  19:45   this is the real wealth network's Kathy Fettke, and you are listening to the always valuable get rich education with Keith Weinhold.    Keith Weinhold  20:00   You welcome back to get rich education. We're talking with the author of a great new book, Chris Whelan, it's called inflated money, debt and the American dream. Chris, I see the residential housing market and their price points as being resilient. I'm kind of looking around and seeing if you have any places where you think that there are any cracks in that? I've heard you talk elsewhere about a housing price correction. Were you talking in the one to four unit space? And how do you think that could happen?   Chris Whalen  20:31   I didn't come up with that idea. I did a biography of my good friend Stan middleman, who's the founder of freedom mortgage. It's a real rags to riches story of a successful entrepreneur, a great guy, by the way, is a beloved man in the mortgage industry. And so what he believes is that cycles are about a decade in terms of human behavior. And he says misery on the eights, which is kind of a cute way of saying it. And what Stan is basically saying is you eventually see so much price appreciation that affordability goes to zero. You run out of buyers, is another way to put it. And then once the Fed gooses it, he thinks we see an interest rate decline this year next year, perhaps you get rates to run a little bit. You get volumes to jump the way they did last summer. You remember, in the third quarter, we had great volumes in the mortgage industry, carried everybody through to the end of the year, and then after that, he says, we get a price correction, maybe back down to 2020 21 levels. So we're talking about a 20% price correction, and we're talking about the loans that have been made in the last few years being underwater. That's something we haven't talked about in a long time. We haven't talked about that since 2008 so I think that Americans inevitably have to see some kind of a correction. What the Fed did was wrong, what they did was excessive. I write about that in the end of my book, but unfortunately, the result is home prices that have galloped along, and eventually you got to reset it. Part of its supply coming online. Part of it is simply, like, I say, you run out of buyers, and when it's simply that purchase buyer who is either all cash or happens to have the deposit, and that's all you have. And there's no flexibility for people that want to get into the market. You know, that's tough. I could recall Paul Volcker years ago, we were talking about that in the book too. He ratcheted down home prices. He raised interest rates so much that home prices went down, and a lot of builders went out of business who had had a lot of snls go out of business, and, you know, the previous decade. So that was a tough time. We didn't even start to do that this time around, because they were afraid to the Fed is worried about keeping the Treasury market open, so they are afraid of deflation, which unfortunately means you don't get those opportunities to get into the market. I remember my parents, when I was very young, they would buy busted homes in Washington, DC. It was a great way to make a lot of money, and in five years, the House would double. That's the kind of market Washington was   Keith Weinhold  23:05   in my opinion, I don't see how there could be any substantial residential home price correction. Historically that happens when there's a wide swath of homeowners that get into financial trouble, like I was talking about earlier, the homeowner is in great financial shape today. In fact, since World War Two, we've only seen home prices drop substantially during one period. That was that period around 2008 and that's when we had conditions that are opposite of what they are today. We had loans underwritten with liar loans. We had an over supply of homes, like I was saying earlier, inflation can't touch one's principal and interest payment. We're still under supplied with homes. Most experts don't think we'll get that into balance for at least five years. I really don't see how home prices could fall substantially. I also don't see how they could rise substantially, like, say, 10% due to that low affordability, but I expect continued stability in prices?    Chris Whalen  24:02   Well, we'll see. I'm not as sanguine about that, because a lot of people feel house rich on paper, but when the bottom of the stack is really hurting as it is now, FHA delinquency rates really are in probably the mid teens. You don't see that yet in the middle with the 727, 40 FICO type borrowers. But I think over time you could, and if, again, it depends on the economy and some other factors, but I'll tell you right now, you're already seeing a correction in the hyad the bottom half, no. And there's a supply problem here, which I agree with you on. It's going to keep those home price is pretty firm. And even where I am in New York, for God's sake, Keith, there's no construction here. So we just had a house across the street from me go from million one. I live in Sleepy, hollow New York, and you know, this is typically around the conforming limit for prices for most of these homes, and it went for 150 $1,000 over the ask, it was crazy. Went in two weeks now, during COVID, we saw this sort of behavior, and we thought, Well, okay, you had zero interest rates. I got a 3% mortgage, by the way, awesome. But here we have a situation when markets cooled down a lot, and yet the lack of availability is really the driver. So in that sense, I agree with you, but I do think the high end could correct rather substantially.   Keith Weinhold  25:24    And of course, in multi family apartments, that's different. That's where values in a lot of markets have been depressed by more than 30% they were subject to those interest rates being jacked up, and we're still going to see balloon loans mature and people default on those in apartments. The pain is not over with air, but at some point that's going to bottom out, and that'll be a buyer opportunity in apartments.   Chris Whalen  25:47    Well, the thing is, new stuff is going fine. It's what happens is when the new gets built, the older assets down the road get discounted. That's really what's going on. People love new as you know, these kids love a new house, as opposed to an older house.   Keith Weinhold  26:02   Yes, that'll help reset the prices in the new market when you can compare those to what existing values are. Well, Chris, talk to us more about your new book and what the overall thesis of the book is in these critical times.    Chris Whalen  26:16   Inflated is meant to help people understand how our country went from agrarian, sleepy, isolationist America in the 1900s to being the dominant economy in the world and the provider of global money. We talk about how we got here. We talk about Abraham Lincoln and Franklin Roosevelt and many other characters. Obviously, we had to talk about Andrew Jackson, who is now embodied in our president, Donald Trump. We try and frame how this is all going to evolve in the future. And my thesis is basically the global currency role is something you get during or after a war. We took the baton from Great Britain after the First World War, and then by the end of World War Two, everybody in the world was broke, except for us. It was last man standing. And so rebuilt the world. We let everybody take advantage of us, and now President, who's saying, Nope, we got to change this. I think if it wasn't Trump, it would be somebody else. To be honest with you, Americans are tired of high inflation. They're tired of some of the other costs that come along with being the global reserve currency, so we try and frame all of this in an understandable way. And I particularly talk about housing during COVID and how that all really, I think, changed things for many Americans. Home ownership has been one of the basic ways we create wealth in this country, and the fact that we didn't have an opportunity for people to get in cheap with a fixer upper or a house that was foreclosed. You know, I think it's unfortunate, but the system just can't tolerate it. We've gone in 2008 and then in 2020 through two very significant crises when the government bond market stopped working. So we talk about that as well.   Keith Weinhold  28:03   I don't predict interest rates. I think it is really difficult to do you mentioned earlier about the prospect for lower interest rates coming. Everyone wants to know about coming. What's your outlook for the future of interest rates and inflation for just say the next five years? Chris,    Chris Whalen  28:19   I think interest rates will drop. That is to say what the Fed controls, which is short term interest rates. In the next year or so, we'll have a little bit of a boom as a result. But I think the concern about the federal deficit and US debt, the volatility caused by President Trump's trade strategy, and just general I think a sense of uncertainty among investors is going to keep long term interest rates higher than we saw during COVID And really the whole period since 2008 the Fed bought a lot of duration and took it out of the market, so they kept rates low. They're not going to do that as much in the future. I don't think they'll buy mortgage securities again, they are very chastened by that experience. So if they don't buy mortgage backed securities, and if the banks don't become more aggressive buyers, and I don't think they will, then you know, the marginal demand that would drive mortgage rates down is just not going to be there. Banks have been holding fewer and fewer mortgages and mortgage backed securities on their books for 35 years. If you look at the growth in the industry, the dollar amount of one to four family mortgages hasn't changed very much. So when you look at it that way, it's like, you know what's wrong? Two things. They want to only make mortgages to affluent households. They want to avoid headline risk and litigation and fines and all of that. And I think also, too some of the Basel capital rules for banks discourage them from holding mortgages and mortgage servicing rights, which is an area I work in quite a lot.   Keith Weinhold  29:55   It seems to me, like increasingly, the powers. It be the United States government just won't let the homeowner fail. They want to do so much to promote home ownership over the long term, we see relative ease with getting a mortgage. We've seen lower down payment requirements during other times, including COVID. We see the government jump in with things like mortgage loan forbearance and an eviction moratorium for renters. They just don't want to let people lose their homes. It just seems like there's more propensity to give homeowners a greater safety net than ever. Well,   Chris Whalen  30:29   we've turned it into an entitlement. Yeah, and Trump is changing that at the federal level. The states, the blue states, are going to continue to play that game at the state level, and they can even have state moratoria. But what's going to happen, and I think sooner rather than later, is you may see the federal agencies start to tier the states in terms of servicing fees, simply to reflect the cost. It takes over 1400 days to do a foreclosure in New York. Gosh, that is a big problem. You can lose the lien in New York now, it takes so long. So I think that, you know, from an investor perspective, from a developer perspective, it's not an attractive venue. That's just the reality. Then you even California is as progressive and as activists as it is, you can still get a foreclosure done very quickly using the trustees. It's just a totally different situation. If there are complications, you can get into a judicial foreclosure, which will take longer. But still, California works. New York is deliberately dysfunctional. We have people in the state legislature who are in foreclosure themselves, and they keep passing these laws. So, you know, I think at the federal level, you're going to see it roll back to pre COVID, but I will say that forbearance, both with respect to the agency and conventional market and private loans, is kind of the rule. Now we work with the borrower much more than we would in the past. It's it is really night and day.   Keith Weinhold  32:00   Chris, your new book has gotten a lot of acclaim. Let us know anything else that we should know about this book, and then if we can get it in all the usual places   Chris Whalen  32:10   you can buy it at Barnes and Noble Amazon. I have a page on my website, RC, waylon.com, with all the relevant links. But the online is the best way to get it. Most of the sales are on Kindle anyway, but well over 90% are online, so we don't have to worry about physical books. I think we'll be doing some book signings in the New York area. So we'll definitely let you know about that.   Keith Weinhold  32:33   One last thought is that the rate of inflation means more to a real estate investor than it does to a layperson, maybe five times as much or more, because when we borrow for an income property, our asset floats up with inflation. That part's really just a hedge on inflation. Our debt gets debased by inflation, which is really a mechanism for profiting from inflation over time. And then, thirdly, our cash flow tends to go up even faster than the rate of inflation, since our principal and interest stays fixed, so real estate investors can often be the beneficiary of inflation. It's sort of strange to go root for a force like inflation that can impoverish so many people. But what are your thoughts with respect to real estate investors and inflation?   Chris Whalen  33:19   Well, you know, it's funny when Jerome Powell at the Fed says that they have a 2% inflation target, my response is, well, we better have at least 2% inflation if we're going to make commercial real estate work. Commercial real estate went up for 75 years after World War Two. I can remember when I was in the rating business at Crowell bond ratings going to see some of the banks here in New York, their multifamily books had only seen the equity underneath the asset go up and up and up. In other words, the land ended up being 90% of the value, you know, 1520, years after the purchase and the improvements were almost worthless simply because the land appreciated so much. Now that has changed since COVID. A lot of commercial real estate, particularly has gotten under a bit of a cloud. You've seen falling prices. However, in parts of the country that are growing where you have a positive political environment, positive economic environment, you're still seeing fantastic growth in both commercial and multifamily markets. So I think being very careful and patient in doing your homework in terms of picking venues is more important now than ever before. You know, I'll give you an example. Down in Florida, we're building new malls every day. The mall down the road that's 15 years old. There's nothing wrong with it, but it's 15 years old. And so the price discounts that you're seeing for existing assets are rather striking. Same thing down in the Carolinas, down in, you know, Atlanta, and going down to the Texas growth spectacle, I'm always astounded by what's going on in Texas. They built so much in that whole area around South Lake, out by the airport. It, they're going to basically subsume used it. So, you know, in those markets, you have great opportunities, but you also have over building. And so we're going to see some cycles where they're going to be deals out there for projects that maybe were a little too ambitious have to get restructured, and astute investors can come in and do very well on that   Keith Weinhold  35:20   like we often say around here, in real estate investing, the market is typically even more important than the property itself. The name of Chris's new book, again, is inflated money, debt and the American dream. It has an awful lot of intersections with real estate investors and how they can play inflation. Uh, Chris has been a terrific conversation about the real estate market and larger market forces. It's been great having you here on the show.   Chris Whalen  35:47   Thank you, Keith. Let's do it again.   Keith Weinhold  35:49   Yeah, some good insights from Chris, a smart guy. And gosh, what a really sad state for rent stabilized apartments in New York City, where landlords of some of those properties, they would have to spend sometimes hundreds of 1000s of dollars in order to bring them up to code, but then they couldn't charge enough rent to offset those expenses due to government intervention and price fixing, so landlords just lock up the property vacant. And this sort of harkens back to when we were talking about some of this last year, when we had documentary film maker jen siderova on the show with her film called shopification, and it was about how rent control slowly makes neighborhoods fall into disrepair. All right, Chris and I had some difference of opinion there on the prospects for a home price correction. I think I made most of my points. He did, though, talk about running out of home buyers. If I have him back, maybe I'll pick up right there. More buyers are baked into the demographics, like I think I shared with you one time the US had its highest ever birth rate years between 1990 and 2010 more than 4 million births per year for a lot of those years. Just to review this with you, you might remember that 2007 was the US is peak birth year. Add 38 years to that for the average first time homebuyer age, and that housing demand won't even peak until 2045 and it will continue to stay high for a few years after that. So that's where the demand is just going to keep coming from, just piling on. And when I say that loan conditions have eased for American homeowners, like I did there during the interview, of course, what I'm talking about is the long term. I mean, lending conditions got more rigid after 2008 and with the adoption of Dodd Frank. What I'm talking about is, before the Great Depression, it was most common to have to make 50% to 60% down payments on property, and you had to repay the entire note in five to 10 years. I mean, can you imagine how that would hurt affordability today and then later, by 1950, 15, year loans were the common one. I mean, even that would impair affordability today. Today, 30 year loans are the common one, and you can put as little as 3% down on a primary residence. A lot of people don't know that either. It does not take 20% on a primary residence. So that's what I mean about the relative ease of credit flow today. Now, Chris has knowledge about other parts of the real estate market that I don't for his work inside DC and in other places like the foreclosure market. We talked about some of that right after the interview. For example, He was letting acronyms like NPL roll off his tongue, and I had to ask him what that meant. That's a non performing loan. Check out Chris's new book. Again, it's called inflated money debt in the American dream. And again, his website is RCwhalen.com and Chris also has a great sense of history, which we didn't get into, longtime real estate guys radio show co host Russell gray and I will discuss monetary history here on the show soon. Like I said, I'm coming to you from Edinburgh, Scotland this week, even if you don't see great sites, you know, it's interesting just walking the historic streets here, if you're an American that's visited here before, you surely know what I mean. And I told you that I'd let you know, the current real estate transaction I'm involved in is paying $650 a night for the hotel here in Edinburgh. Yes, that's a lot. I've actually paid less for fancier places in Dubai, but this hotel here is on the Royal Mile. Of course, I could have found less expensive accommodations elsewhere.    Speaking of less expensive, here's an announcement. And we have new investment property providers at GRE marketplace, two of them, the markets are both in Oklahoma, and they are Oklahoma City and Tulsa, Oklahoma as a state, is known for landlord friendly eviction processes and legal systems, kind of the opposite of New York. So this makes your property management more predictable. Now, when we look at this city, OKC has the lowest priced new single family rentals. I can think of it under 160k Yes, that really puts the exclamation point on inexpensive and favorable rent to price ratios often exceeding 1% which is obviously attractive for cash flow, meaning a 150k single family rental could yield over $1,500 in rent. There's high rental demand in certain sub markets. We have scouted out those exact places for you in the OKC metro, like Edmond Moore spelled M, O, O, R, E, and Midwest City, all supporting consistent rent income, though it was once really oil dependent, OKC has diversified economically, reducing your risk tied to commodity cycles and ok sees local economy that's supported by industries including aerospace, energy, health care and logistics. Then there's Tulsa. Tulsa has the highest cash flowing new build duplexes, perhaps anywhere in the US that I know about. On the single family rental side, a lot of Tulsa investors can find properties under 150k with monthly rents again exceeding 1% of the purchase price, clearly ideal. So yes, both Oklahoma City and Tulsa are now on GRE marketplace. You can either visit the pages and see them there, or one of our qualified, experienced GRE investment coaches. Meet with them. They can help guide you to the very best deals and show you the specific property addresses available right at this time for whatever best meets your needs. If you're looking to either start or expand to another market and you seek cash flow, you really need to consider Oklahoma. Yes, it is free to have a strategy session with an investment coach, whether that's for Oklahoma or other investor advantage regions. I often like to leave you with something actionable. You can start at GREinvestment coach.com start book a meeting for a free strategy session remotely. That's at GREinvestment coach.com, until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Dolf Deroos  42:51   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Advice, opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  43:14   You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access and it's got pay walls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text gre to 66866. While it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, gre to 66866.   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.

Chris Whalen breaks down Trump's “Big Beautiful Bill,” rising tensions over tariffs, the growing debate between gold and Bitcoin, and why America's exploding debt could trigger major consequences. We also explore inflation, reserve currency status, the Fed's future, and what investors should be watching in 2025. Buy Chris' New Book: https://a.co/d/bY08A6d ______________________________________________ Learn More About BetterWealth: https://betterwealth.com ==================== DISCLAIMER: https://bttr.ly/aapolicy*This video is for entertainment purposes only and is not financial or legal advice. Financial Advice Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for education, discussion, and illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice or recommendation. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of the information on this channel. Neither host nor guests can be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered.

Tom Bodrovics introduces Chris Whalen, author of Inflated: Money, Debt, and the American Dream, which has been re-released in a second edition with significant updates. The conversation focuses on the current state of markets, the impact of President Trump's tariff policies, and the challenges posed by the federal debt and inflation. Chris explains that he removed 20,000 words from his original book to make space for a new chapter analyzing the Federal Reserve's management of the money supply under Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, and Jerome Powell. He highlights how the U.S. housing market has become heavily government-supported, leading to increased volatility and rising costs for consumers. Discussing inflation, Chris notes that it is driven by the inability of governments to generate sufficient income to meet their people's needs, as seen in countries like Argentina. He argues that borrowing from future income through debt creates distortions, particularly in housing markets, where prices have surged due to low interest rates and government intervention. He also critiques the dysfunctionality of Congress, which he believes is unable to pass budgets or manage spending effectively. Chris emphasizes the importance of gold as a hedge against inflation and expresses skepticism about stablecoins and cryptocurrencies, calling them speculative vehicles rather than reliable alternatives to fiat currency. He suggests that the U.S. dollar's dominance in global markets contributes to inflationary pressures, as other countries benefit from using dollars without bearing the associated costs. The discussion concludes with Chris offering an optimistic outlook, noting that while challenges remain, opportunities exist for investors to navigate inflation through real estate and gold. He encourages listeners to manage investments with a long-term perspective, considering the erosive effects of even low levels of inflation over time. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:02 - His Revised Book3:08 - Tariffs & Debt Distortions7:12 - Reserve Currency & Inflation11:03 - Debt Markets & Fed/Banks17:32 - National Debt & Spending21:18 - DOGE Cuts & Old Systems30:17 - Trump's Strategy?34:04 - Gold During Nixon Era39:08 - Book & US Administrations44:13 - MMT Era & Cryptocurrency?50:21 - Silver Supply & 1800s52:06 - Stablecoin Backing55:02 - Concluding Thoughts56:33 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/X: https://x.com/rcwhalenBooks (Amazon): https://tinyurl.com/mv3wctcrLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rcwhalen/ Richard Christopher Whalen is an investment banker and author based in New York. He serves as Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors LLC, focusing on banking, mortgage finance, and fintech sectors. Christopher is a contributing editor at National Mortgage News and a general securities principal and member of FINRA. From 2014 to 2017, he was the Senior Managing Director and Head of Research at Kroll Bond Rating Agency, leading the Financial Institutions and Corporate Ratings Groups. Previously, he was a principal at Institutional Risk Analytics from 2003 to 2013. Over three decades, Chris has worked as an author, financial professional, and journalist in Washington, New York, and London. After graduating, he served under Rep. Jack Kemp (R-NY) at the House Republican Conference Committee. In 1993, he was the first journalist to report on secret FOMC minutes concealed by Alan Greenspan. His career included roles at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bear Stearns & Co., Prudential Securities, Tangent Capital, and Carrington Mortgage Holdings. Christopher holds a B.A. in History from Villanova University. He is the author of three books: "Ford Men: From Inspiration to Enterprise" (2017), published by Laissez Faire Books; "Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the American Dream" (2010) by John Wiley & Sons; and co-author of "Financial Stability: Fraud, Confidence & the Wealth of Nations,

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show to discuss his newly released book "Inflated: Money, Debt and the American Dream." Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: kalshi.com/julia In this episode, Whalen offers a contrarian perspective on current markets, dismissing recession fears while highlighting a "silent recession" in commercial real estate. He draws parallels between Trump and Andrew Jackson, explains why the Treasury-Fed relationship is America's most important economic factor, and predicts zero rate cuts this year despite market expectations. Whalen argues that America's addiction to inflation has benefited asset holders while hurting average citizens, creating a housing affordability crisis and warning of an impending commercial real estate collapse that could become "the new subprime."Links:    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Timestamps:0:00 - Introduction and welcome back Chris Whalen 0:31 - Discussion about Chris's new book release 2:04 - Current market analysis and tariff situation 2:35 - Trump's fiscal plans and Congressional challenges 3:58 - Credit to Chris for predicting tariffs as "distraction" 4:21 - Chris's investment positions 5:09 - America's addiction to debt 7:35 - Treasury market and Fed priorities analysis 9:02 - Banks' lack of credit demand issue 11:22 - Inflation misconceptions 13:43 - Trump/Jackson parallel 15:33 - Fed/Treasury relationship change post-2008 17:09 - Trump's vision for economic role of government 18:06 - Solutions for national debt 19:37 - Inflation impact across economic classes 21:33 - Housing market issues and starter home costs 24:56 - 2% inflation compounding effects 26:08 - Inflation's role in addressing national debt 28:49 - Recession outlook discussion 30:36 - "Silent recession" in commercial real estate 31:55 - Why rate cuts aren't needed 33:37 - Commercial real estate as "the new subprime" 35:29 - Government as housing lender of last resort problems 37:06 - Closing remarks

In this explosive episode, Chris Whalen, Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and Wall Street veteran, delivers an unfiltered breakdown of what's next for the U.S. economy. From the Fed's policy blunders to a looming 20% housing market correction, Chris lays out what most analysts refuse to say. We cover the fintech credit crisis, inflation's true cause, commercial real estate's silent implosion, and why gold is set to become a central bank favourite again. Buckle up — this one's packed.#Gold #housingcrash #inflation ---------------------

Apr 25, 2025 – In this compelling interview, Jim Puplava sits down with Chris Whalen, financial expert and author of Inflated: Money, Debt and the American Dream, to explore our nation's fascinating and turbulent relationship with money...

Apr 25, 2025 – In this compelling interview, Jim Puplava sits down with Chris Whalen, financial expert and author of Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the American Dream, to explore our nation's fascinating and turbulent relationship with money...

Despite the best efforts of Elon Musk and the DOGE team, the US fiscal deficit for 2025 is $1.3 trillion so far, the second highest six-month level on record.And while the US at least is giving lip service to its plans to reduce its deficit over coming years, much of the rest of the world's largest economies -- like the EU and China -- are actively ramping up their fiscal spending. All of which makes today's guest's perspective incredibly timely. He's just released a new second edition to his book "Inflated: How Money & Debt Built The American Dream"Is there a way we can stop, and perhaps even reverse the loss of purchasing power our fiat currencies are suffering from all this wanton spending?Or, it is only going to get worse from here?To find out, we'll ask the author himself, Chris Whalen, Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors LLC and expert on the banking, mortgage finance and fintech sectors.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#inflation #goldprice #marketcorrection _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

Chris Whalen says JPMorgan Chase (JPM) has a “mind-boggling” advantage in its efficiencies, but notes recurring revenue was basically flat. However, he notes that as GDP estimates tick down, delinquencies will likely rise, which the banks need to prepare for. “Tariffs are a distraction,” he adds, “credit is the headline this year.” He looks at struggling real estate markets to back his point.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 247 to discuss tariffs, markets, and the economy. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. ⁠https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠ Chris Whalen explains why the tariff debate is largely a distraction - part of Trump's "shock and awe" strategy to force trading partners to negotiate fairer terms as America attempts to end the Bretton Woods system after 75 years. He sees credit deterioration emerging in auto loans and credit cards while warning about multi-family housing defaults, particularly in smaller urban properties where market indicators show values 50% below their last sale. Despite market fears, Whalen believes the bond market is already cutting rates regardless of Fed action, with the 10-year yield dropping to 3.94% due to strong demand for risk-free collateral and Treasury's efforts to reduce auction sizes. He predicts financial consolidation will continue, pointing to the mortgage industry shrinking to just five major lender/servicer groups, while suggesting investors should look for stock opportunities despite current volatility.Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571XStanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/ 0:00 Introduction1:27 Tariffs 3:03 Market reaction assessment5:11 Investment strategy amid volatility7:40 Historical context of tariffs10:37 Main Street vs Wall Street priorities11:17 Impact and distribution of tariff costs13:30 Consumer credit and lending trends15:34 Multi-family housing defaults17:36 Real estate overbuilding concerns18:17 Consumer recession outlook20:46 Job market and recession dynamics22:57 Fed outlook and rate environment24:52 Balance sheet impact discussion26:56 Treasury market outlook29:36 Client questions about market positioning30:57 Closing remarks and contact information

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 240 to discuss markets and the state of the economy. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Whalen explains why market euphoria has faded under Trump's "shock and awe" strategy. Banks face a $3 trillion mortgage securities problem yielding under 3% against 3% funding costs. He notes the FDIC has stopped reporting troubled bank asset totals after 35 years, suggesting numerous insolvent institutions need resolution. Despite these issues, Whalen doesn't forecast a recession, seeing continued growth with isolated credit problems. In commercial real estate, he describes a "silent recession" where banks avoid taking properties, while for residential real estate he predicts price softening, then a rate-cut mini-boom before a major 2028 correction. Whalen also calls Fannie & Freddie stocks a "pump and dump" trade, states gold is "the only form of money that's not debt," and dismisses crypto as "nothing."Links:    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571XStanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/  0:00 Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen 1:06 Big picture market overview and Trump policy impact 2:49 Stock market as political proxy and market conditions 4:46 Fed policy outlook and potential rate cuts 6:09 Banking sector challenges and mark-to-market issues 8:07 Silicon Valley Bank anniversary and bank issues 11:10 Economic assessment and credit conditions 13:52 Commercial real estate challenges 16:11 Discussion of tariffs and Trump's structural changes 20:13 Debt, government spending, and economic growth 22:18 Investment approach and AI skepticism 24:36 Gold vs cryptocurrency perspective 25:58 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac 27:29 Housing market conditions and affordability 29:50 Closing thoughts and where to find his work

0:00 - DOGE 11:54 - Polling BLM Brandon 30:04 - Any 85 Bears left that can run for governor or mayor? 50:22 - Jasmine Crockett on The Breakfast Club: not that much waste, fraud, abuse 01:02:11 - In-depth History with Frank from Arlington Heights 01:05:05 - British journalist, former bureau chief for Daily Telegraph’s Moscow office, Julius Strauss: What Putin Wants. And what America will do. For more from Julius backtothefront.substack.com 01:26:56 - Ted Dabrowksi, president at Wirepoints, is green with envy as Ron DeSantis ponders scrapping property taxes. Get Ted’s latest wirepoints.org 01:42:06 - Investment banker, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors LLC and editor for The Institutional Risk Analyst, Chris Whalen, discusses DC, DOGE, and the dollar. Chris has a book coming out this May! Inflated: Money, Debt and the American Dream – 2nd Edition 02:00:58 - Thomas Baker, retired FBI special agent and legal attaché: FBI Reforms for Kash Patel. Check out Thomas’ book The Fall of the FBI: How a Once Great Agency Became a Threat to DemocracySee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins Julia La Roche for episode 231 where he shares his perspective on the economic and market implications of President Trump's pivot back to 19th century-style tariffs. Whalen argues that while tariffs are unlikely to significantly slow the US economy, the Fed is "playing chicken" with liquidity levels as it unwinds its balance sheet amid soaring deficits. He warns of structural issues in the mortgage market stemming from pandemic-era policies, and expects a major housing reset in 2027-28. Whalen also discusses the Treasury's funding challenges, the Trump administration's likely tax policy priorities, risks lurking beneath buoyant markets, and the limits of mixed economic data for asset allocators. Tune in for an incisive discussion on navigating an increasingly uncertain investing landscape. Links:     Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/    Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/   Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:06 Trump taking us back to the 19th century with tariffs 03:14 Tariffs unlikely to slow down the US economy much 04:57 Fed erring on side of liquidity due to federal deficit, hasn't reduced reserves 06:27 Fed playing "chicken" with liquidity levels in the economy 08:03 Politics making Fed governors protective and reluctant to cut rates 09:45 Treasury's ebb and flow of cash and Fed's balance sheet runoff impacting liquidity 12:36 Fed's difficulty in determining minimum liquidity levels 13:43 Treasury Secretary Bessent inheriting Yellen's reliance on short-term T-bills 15:42 Appetite for longer-dated Treasuries depends on the coupon 17:49 Structural impediments in the mortgage market from QE during COVID 18:19 Taxes to be a big focus for Trump administration 19:51 Danger of relying on long-dated Treasury issuance to finance deficits 21:11 Strong liquidity masking underlying economic issues 22:44 Inflation likely here to stay given high debt levels 24:14 Expecting Fed rate cuts, mini boom, then major housing reset in 2027-28 25:55 Treasury Secretary Bessent named acting head of CFPB after firing Chopra 27:13 Stock market valuations stretched, risks from passive strategies selling 29:54 Trump likened to a disruptive Andrew Jackson, investors may seek safety 31:48 Mixed economic data making asset allocation challenging

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, joins Episode 223 of the Julia La Roche Show for his first outlook of 2025. Whalen explains why he believes long-term interest rates could rise unless Trump makes "real progress" on the federal deficit, warns a "kamikaze release" of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from conservatorship without legislation would be highly disruptive, and shares why focusing on Treasury policy rather than the Federal Reserve is "all that matters." He also discusses why stocks could be "ready for a downward adjustment" after outperforming in 2023-2024, and offers a surprisingly optimistic longer-term view if Washington can demonstrate "real leadership." Links:     Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/    Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/   Timestamps: 00:00 Welcome back to Chris Whalen 01:12 2024 retrospective and consumer spending 02:42 Housing affordability and discretionary spending 04:49 Inflation outlook and Fed policy 06:31 Fed's focus on market stability over inflation 08:16 Fed rate cuts projection for 2025 10:52 Trump administration 2.0 outlook 11:42 Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac conservatorship discussion 13:21 Recession probability assessment 15:25 GSE release implications 19:45 Best approach to GSE reform 21:47 Federal deficit challenges 23:38 US debt situation and spending freeze 25:49 Treasury debt issuance strategy 27:42 Shifting narrative from Fed to Treasury 28:36 Market outlook for 2025 30:50 Closing thoughts on leadership and demographics

On today's episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with investment banker and author Chris Whalen about the possibilities and challenges of bringing the GSEs — Fannie and Freddie — out of conservatorship. Whalen edits The Institutional Risk Analyst newsletter and has held positions in organizations such as the House Republican Conference Committee, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bear, Stearns & Co., Prudential Securities, and Carrington Mortgage Holdings. Related to this episode: Broeksmit: MBA ready to work on GSEs' exit from conservatorship | HousingWire Chris Whalen | LinkedIn HousingWire | YouTube More info about HousingWire   Enjoy the episode! The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate stories. Hosted and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To stay competitive in this market, lenders need to find efficiencies and understand their operations in a much deeper way. Richey May's consulting, cybersecurity, business intelligence, and automation services are designed by mortgage experts to help you continue to drive growth and increase profitability. Visit https://richeymay.com to learn more.

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, joined the Julia La Roche Show (Ep. 216) to share his outlook on markets amid the transition to a new Trump administration. Whalen explains why the markets want to see seriousness about deficit reduction from the incoming administration, discusses his views on Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary pick, and outlines why showing progress on the deficit could drive rates lower without Fed intervention. He also delves into the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the return of bond vigilantes, and why Bitcoin's rise is his favorite inflation indicator. Links:     Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/    Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/   Timestamps: **Timestamps:** 00:01 Introduction to Chris Whalen 00:54 Post-election cabinet picks and macro overview 03:16 Analysis of Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent 05:04 Discussion of Treasury debt and market implications 06:14 Treasury priorities and impact on rates 07:31 Federal Reserve policy and market normalization 09:25 Long-term vs short-term rates outlook 11:25 Housing market forecast 13:22 Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac conservatorship discussion 17:16 GSE stock trading outlook 19:11 Fed rate cut implications for market narrative 21:49 Recession and credit market concerns 23:17 Inflation discussion and Bitcoin indicator 25:49 Gold policy recommendations 27:07 Tariffs and trade policy analysis 29:28 Department of Government Efficiency outlook 31:35 Government headcount reduction impact 34:44 Closing thoughts on Treasury markets

Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to the show for episode 208 to discuss the economy, markets, and the 2024 presidential election. ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only.   *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond's yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond's YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account. Links:     Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/    Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/   Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen 00:56 Big picture, overview of interest rates and Fed policy 02:57 Analysis of Treasury bond market dynamics 04:11 Long-term outlook for bonds and market structure 06:01 Discussion of fiscal policy and government spending 09:00 Critique of government spending efficiency 11:24 Commentary on government sector competency 13:21 Election outlook and demographic shifts 16:56 Analysis of Bank of America and banking sector 19:16 Discussion of stock selection in current market 22:42 Investment strategy in uncertain times 24:59 Analysis of hydrogen and energy sector outlook 26:02 Key market risk: potential for higher long-term rates 28:05 Closing thoughts and upcoming conference call

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com Banking expert Chris Whalen fears the Federal Reserve cut interest rates too soon. As a result inflation will remain sticky, the Fed will likely be forced to start expanding its balance sheet soon, and that mortgage rates will rise back above 7% #mortgagerates #interestrates #federalreserve --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns for episode 200 to discuss the economy, the Fed, upcoming bank earnings, the 2024 election, and more. ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond's yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond's YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account. Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/ 00:00 Introduction and welcome Chris Whalen 01:10 Macro view and Federal Reserve actions 02:56 Fed's rate cut mistake and implications 05:14 Fed's credibility and narrative challenges 07:12 Global economic outlook and banking sector issues 09:13 Inflation and its impact on different economic segments 12:09 Analysis of proposed first-time homebuyer policy 15:01 Discussion on oil markets and OPEC 16:48 US 10-year yields and mortgage rates 19:46 Outlook for upcoming bank earnings 22:19 Basel Accord and banking regulation issues 26:25 Market risks and bank solvency concerns 28:16 Implications of rising 10-year Treasury yields 30:36 2024 US election outlook and key issues 33:00 Closing thoughts and upcoming book releases

Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to the show for episode 195 to discuss the current state of the economy. ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.9% yield: https://public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only.   *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.9% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 8/23/2024. A bond's yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond's YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at https://public.com/disclosures/bond-account. Links:     Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/    Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/   Chapters 00:00 Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen 01:04 Big picture view — is there a recession or not? 02:24 Labor market 03:44 Home prices 07:53 Recession   10:40 Rate policy 12:54 Fed is afraid to really fight inflation 14:00 Liquidity explained 17:00 Americans are looking to be bailed out 21:30 Intervention 23:05 Fed 24:50 Deficit 28:40 Election 32:36 Parting thoughts

Thanks to today's podcast sponsor, PHH Mortgage. For over 35 years, PHH Mortgage has provided industry-leading mortgage services. They are one of the largest servicers of residential mortgages in the United States and offer a variety of solutions for the entire mortgage lifecycle. If you are looking for a Correspondent Lending partner or an experienced, award-winning Subservicer who can manage your forward and reverse, residential and commercial, and performing and non-performing loans look no further than PHH. Learn more at business.phhmortgage.com.

Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 188 to discuss the economy. This episode was recorded on Friday, Aug. 2. Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/ Timestamps: 00:00 Welcome back Chris Whalen 01:00 Big picture view and the troublesome rate of change 2:30 10-year yield 04:15 An inflection point 06:15 Risks in corporate credit and commercial real estate 09:15 A difficult economic environment ahead 12:50 Upcoming election 15:00 Why the Fed won't cut before the election 16:40 Opportunities 18:40 Fannie and Freddie 23:08 Velocity of the change 24:00 Consumers 26:16 Opportunities for Lenders 28:00 Inflation problem

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://x.com/rcwhalen Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:44) Overview of Chris' Banking Outlook (04:59) Bank of America (12:54) VanEck Ad (15:39) Charles Schwab (20:27) Credit Cards and Auto (27:21) Permissionless Ad (28:24) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (35:51) Smaller Banks Are Leading The Larger Banks (40:34) Capital Markets Activity Is Picking Back Up (44:43) Private Credit & Private Equity (47:21) Synthetic Risk Transfers (56:42) Basel III Endgame Might Be Shelved If Trump Gets Re-Elected (01:18:58) What About The Chinese Shadow Banking System? (01:21:13) How Pettis Sees This All Playing Out (01:25:09) How Falling Real Estate Prices (And Stock Markets) Impact Sentiment In China __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 181 to discuss the economy, why he thinks the Federal Reserve is worried about a recession next year, and his take on the upcoming election. Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/ Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen 01:00 Macro view 03:00 Stress tests 05:50 The Consumer 07:30 Silent crisis in commercial 11:24 Election 14:45 Trump win good for the economy 17:30 Inflation 21:20 Rate policy 25:30 Trump 29:00 Parting thoughts

Today's guest wrote the book "Inflated: How Money & Debt Built The American Dream" In it, he wrote: "The first rule of any fiat system is no fiscal deficit" Well, the US -- and virtually every other G7 country -- is breaking that rule six ways to Sunday given the unprecedented record levels of deficit spending currently underway. Does that mean we're headed for trouble? To find out, we'll ask the author himself, Chris Whalen, Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors LLC and expert on the banking, mortgage finance and fintech sectors. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #inflation #debt #bankingsystem --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Could the #commercialrealestate market be the ticking time bomb that triggers the next #economicrecession? Non-performing loans, steeply discounted commercial assets, and high deficits hiding deeper economic woes - my guest and I tackle these pressing issues head-on.From our June 12, 2024 Win-Win Webinar, I bring together three eminent voices in banking and real estate finance - William Erbey, President, Salt Pond Holdings, LLC, Bill Moreland, Partner, BankRegData.com and Chris Whalen, Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors LLC.In a riveting discussion, we unveil the hidden dangers of non-performing loans #npl that federal spending might be masking, unpack the inflationary threats posed by ballooning deficits, despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to control the situation, highlight the staggering debt and dwindling demand leading to deep discounts on asset sales, and take a deeper look into the escalating issues within the commercial loan sector of the #bankingindustry.From the challenges of repurposing commercial buildings to the factors reshaping the market to the opportunities and risks for investors, this episode promises a thought-provoking exploration of the intricate dynamics at play in today's economic and real estate landscapes.William Erbey on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/william-erbey-/Bill Moreland on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bill-moreland-097586/Chris Whalen on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rcwhalen/If your intention is to securely invest with a partner that cares about your investment priorities and provides low risk with maximized returns, please consider joining our successful investing family and let us create a legacy of financial and community impact together. Please email bill@firstliencapital.com or go to https://www.firstliencapital.com and press the INVEST button to be contacted by our team.    Stay connected with Bill Bymel and First Lien Capital:Linktree: https://linktr.ee/billbymelTo learn more, visit:https://billbymel.com/Listen to more episodes on Mission Matters:https://missionmatters.com/author/bill-bymel/

Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 175 to discuss the economy, the risk in commercial real estate, the upcoming presidential election, and the status of the American dream.   Links:  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen  Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/  The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/ Timestamps:  0:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen  1:55 Macro view today, an indication that the tide is going back out 4:40 Residential housing will be the last headwind  5:50 Health of the economy? ‘We're hiding a lot'  7:10 Commercial could be the source of the next financial crisis  11:50 Presidential election  14:00 What a Trump victory would mean  16:00 Our debt and deficit — We're headed toward a crisis 18:40 The Fed  21:40 Fed's focus on language and turning markets into a Kindergarten exercise  23:30 We've turned the Fed into a corporate earnings exercise  26:00 Inflation  28:31 The American Dream  31:00 Parting thoughts 

Sponsor Link: Profit Specialist Groupvideo:    • Cash Discount Program Explained  https://www.cashisking.cc/Low Birth Rates Could Doom Retirement   • Interview – Alison Morrow Interviews ...  Mystery Link:    • "Elon And I Agree, This Is A Serious ...  Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-2039428Odysee.TV: https://odysee.com/@SandmanMGTOW:cBitchute Link: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/YIxe...Sandman 2:    / @sandman2317  Twitter:   / sandmanmgtow  SubscribeStar.com: https://www.subscribestar.com/sandmanPaypal / Email: Sandmanmgtow @ Gmail.comBitcoin Address: bc1qtkeru8ygglfq36eu544hxw6n9hsh22l7fkf8uvHi Everyone Sandman Here,This video isn't brought to you by any donations. So I decided to discuss a video I put a link in the description called Low Birth Rates Could Doom Retirement by one of my long-time sponsor Chris Whalen. I'm just doing it as a thank you and he says that today those over the age of 60 in the United States makeup 23% of the population. But in another thirty years they will make up 29.5% percent of the population. Almost 1 in 3. The population will continue to grow overall but the tax base per old person will go down and social security and medicaid are already technically bankrupt. The fertility rate is 1.78 and falling. That's assuming the tax base will be there. But men that aren't getting married aren't working as hard killing themselves at jobs for their families and to pay government taxes. He says they can't increase taxes on younger people. But taxes will have to go up. This destroys his idea that immigration will continue into America. If young people from outside are just working to pay for food, shelter and taxes to keep the old people in depends then odd are they won't come to a place like America or Canada. There was a Russian living in Vancouver talking about this six months ago and he was struggling to make ends meet as a software engineer. This situation isn't going to be pretty but he does mention that for many the solution will be medical tourism in South America or Eastern Europe. As a guy going his own way going into his 60s, 70s and 80s in 2050 you're going to want to plan now for what comes next. Remember there's already a shortage of specialist doctors in the west. Nursing homes are closing in some cases and assisted living will cost you 8-10k a month right now. Even if you're doing ok financially that might deplete all of your assets in only five to ten years. I'd suggest guys start doing preventative medicine right now. Which means get the three most important things under control. Those being diet, exercise and stress. Lose weight and cut out the sugars and corn starch. Exercise by at least walking half an hour to an hour each day. I do those but stress is also extremely important. Living a low stress lifestyle versus a high stress one is the difference between dying in your early sixties of heart disease versus living into your mid 80s with no issues. Stress also elevates cortisol and blood sugar levels. If I want to have a decent retirement I'm going to have lower my stress to keep health issues at bay. I think it's every man for themselves at this point. I'll discuss more in a moment but let me first tell everyone about today's sponsor Profit Specialist Group:Support this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/mgtow/donationsAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Due to the situation of the economy today… Everyone is talking about the interest rates and when we might see some cuts coming… I've also been doing my research and picking the brains of some real estate experts on my podcast. Previously, I talked with Logan Mohtashami about when the Fed might be planning to reduce rates… Today, I've invited another expert: Chris Whalen from Whalen Global Advisors… …who shares an interesting point of view of where we are, how we got here, and what to expect with the interest rates in the next 5 to 10 years. Chris is an institutional risk analyst and a specialist in economics, looking at rates and recessions. He believes that interest rates are a function of demographics…and that being an open state is actually our strength. The U.S. population continues to grow because we still have positive immigration… …unlike many countries, like China and Japan, that are experiencing traumatic population shrinkage. Our positive growth is improving the demographics and the real estate supply and demand curve. We also talk about… - the boom of the southern states like Carolinas, Texas, and Florida and why you should care - how China is a ‘weak' state and their Belt & Road initiative is a desperate move to keep up with the Western world - the role of politics and how that's going to shape the real estate market in the coming years. You CANNOT miss this podcast… Take Control, Hunter Thompson Resources mentioned in the episode: Chris Whalen Institutional Risk Analysis Website RC Whalen Website Interested in investing with Asym Capital? Check out our webinar.   Please note that investing in private placement securities entails a high degree of risk, including illiquidity of the investment and loss of principal. Please refer to the subscription agreement for a discussion of risk factors. Tired of scrambling for capital?  Check out our new FREE webinar -  How to Ensure You Never Scramble for Capital Again (The 3 Capital-Raising Secrets). Click Here to register.   CFC Podcast Facebook Group

Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss the big picture of the economy and markets. He highlights the dichotomy between the consumer side, which is doing relatively well, and the commercial side, which is suffering due to low interest rates and illiquidity. Whalen predicts that interest rates will rise, leading to a preference for income-focused investments and a shift away from speculative pricing.  He also emphasizes the need for reimagining and redeveloping cities to address the challenges in the commercial real estate sector. Overall, Whalen believes that the economy is producing nominal growth but that people are struggling due to rising costs. Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ The Death of Leverage; What's the WAC of Bank America? https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/the-death-of-leverage-what-s-the-wac-of-bank-america Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen  0:55 Macro view, we're in a weird dichotomy   2:55 Higher interest rates  4:03 Rate outlook  7:13 5 handle on 10-year treasury  10:18 The death of leverage  12:00 Confidence  16:43 Silent crisis in commercial real estate  20:25 A qualitative recession  25:15 Election year  27:23 Higher rates and impact on investor behavior  32:30 Goodbye 

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (00:37) Banking Net Interest Income Is "Flat To Down" (04:26) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (13:26) VanEck Ad (14:26) (17:31) Consumer Deposits Have Become "Toxic" (20:07) Schwab (22:15) Chris Expects Mid-Size Banks To "Do Better Than The Big Guys" Next Year (24:43) If There's No Recession, Are Bank Stocks Still Cheap? (27:41) Higher For Longer Will Continue To Be Bad For Banks' Core Business of Taking Deposits And Making Loans (30:19) Bank of America Should Be "Spanked" (32:59) Only A Few Fed Cuts Are Needed To Improve Banks' Position (35:13) Consumer Credit Continues To Be Fine ("Not Even At 2019 Levels") (37:10) Credit Risk Issues For Banks Are Primarily In CRE (38:12) New York Community Bank

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio. In this episode, we feature conversations with Chris Whalen and Chuck Clough. Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACFSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.  In this episode, we feature conversations with Chris Whalen and Wendy Schiller Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACFSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. __ Chris Whalen of Whalen Global Advisors returns to Forward Guidance to share his outlook on the U.S. banking sector for 2024. Whalen argues that consumer and business credit is faring fine, as delinquencies are rising but from ultra-low levels. He does worry that commercial real estate (CRE) loans will continue to suffer impairment as losses are realized in 2024. Whalen notes that while the decline in long-term bond yields since early November 2023 has improved banks' unrealized losses on held-to-maturity (HTM) securities, and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will not help banks that much as their deposit costs will be slow to fall. Filmed on January 24, 2024. __ Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks' Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Troubles In Commercial Real Estate (07:28) This Will Be A Slow-Motion Train Wreck (11:01) Consumer Credit Is Normalizing (Delinquencies Are Rising From Very Low Levels) (16:13) VanEck Ad (16:57) Updated Views On Banks' Interest Rate Exposure (24:52) The Fed Is Unlikely To Cut Interest Rates 6 Times This Year, Argues Whalen (30:13) Fed Will Stop Quantitative Tightening Sooner Than Market Expects (32:32) Lowest Comfortable Level of Reserves (LCLoR) (33:49) Discount Window, Standing Repo Facility, and Reverse Repo Facility (39:00) Medium Term, Short-Term Rates Will Fall and Yield Curve Will Normalize (41:24) Basel III Endgame (45:32) Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSRs) and Gain On Sale (51:42) Net Income Will Likely Fall At Banks - "Don't Look For Roses And Sunshine" (01:01:04) Private Credit And CLOs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Angela Harrell, Chief Diversity and Corporate Impact Officer at Voya Financial, joins to talk about corporate diversity initiatives and challenges to goals in recent years. Chris Whalen, Chairman at Whalen Global Advisors, discusses bank health in the US amid earnings season. Brad Bernstein, Managing Director at UBS Private Wealth Management, joins to give his market outlook and the view of inflation in 2024. Mike Mullaney, Director of Global Markets Research for Boston Partners, joins to give his outlook on markets and the Fed.  Hosts: John Tucker and Jennifer RyanSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss the big picture of the economy and markets, including an impending maxi reset in home prices and the potential for more bank failures.  He also highlights the “silent crisis” in commercial real estate and the potential increase in bank failures. Whalen shares his insights on the earnings of big banks and media coverage. He provides an outlook on the Federal Reserve and discusses the debt situation in the US. Lastly, he addresses the possibility of releasing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from conservatorship and shares his work and parting thoughts. Takeaways The commercial side of the economy is experiencing pain, particularly in commercial real estate and corporate defaults. The housing market is expected to undergo a reset in the future, leading to a decrease in home prices and potential challenges for developers. There is a silent crisis in commercial real estate, with legacy properties becoming toxic and banks being urged to sell assets. The Federal Reserve may need to drop rates, start buying bonds, and increase reserves to address the challenges in the economy and banking sector. The US debt situation is a significant concern, and long-term rates may rise, impacting various sectors of the economy. The release of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from conservatorship is unlikely due to their credit ratings and challenges in functioning as private entities. Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Comments most recent Fed proposal in Basel III Endgame: https://www.regulations.gov/comment/OCC-2023-0008-0052 Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:08 Big picture view of the economy and markets 3:29 Impact of Basel III endgame  4:50 A maxi reset in housing 06:20 Silent Crisis in commercial real estate 09:28 Potential increase in bank failures 13:00 Big bank earnings and media coverage 15:30 Grim economic picture for commercial  21:15 Outlook on the Federal Reserve 24:55 Fed could cause a bank crisis  26:15 Debt situation in the US 31:30 Release of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from Conservatorship?  35:15 Parting Thoughts

Chris Whalen brings his banking expertise to Keeping it Simple. For more information, visit simplify.us. Simplify Asset Management Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Simplify Asset Management Inc. and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission, nor does it indicate that the advisor has attained a particular level of skill or ability. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy. This content is not intended to provide investment, tax, or legal advice. This content is solely for informational purposes and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. These materials are made available on an “as is” basis, without representation or warranty. The information contained in these materials has been obtained from sources that Simplify Asset Management Inc. believes to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. This information is only current as of the date indicated and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Neither the author nor Simplify Asset Management Inc. undertakes to advise you of any changes in the views expressed herein.

Mick Mulroy, co-founder of the Lobo Institute, and Joe Mathieu, host of Bloomberg's “Balance of Power” and “Sound On,” join to discuss Kevin McCarthy leaving Congress, Ukraine, and foreign aid. Chris Whalen, at Whalen Global Advisers, joins to discuss testimony from big bank CEOs on Capitol Hill today and capital requirements. Quincy Krosby, Chief Market Strategist with LPL Financial, joins to discuss the global economic impact and risks amid the war in Israel and other geopolitical factors. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Simone Foxman.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ed Ludlow, host of Bloomberg Technology, joins to discuss SpaceX potentially spinning off Starlink. Jay Hatfield, CEO at Infrastructure Capital Management, joins to discuss his inflation call in the US, as well as potential recession in Europe. Chris Whalen, Chairman at Whalen Global Advisors, joins to discuss the outlook for Fed rate cuts, inflation in the US, deflation concerns, and concerns of the Fed breaking something. Tina Marriott Larson, COO and President at Recursion Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: RXRX), joins to discuss her company's recent performance, outlook for the biopharma space and its new notable investor, Cathie Wood. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Cam Harvey, Professor at Duke University Faqua School of Business, joins to discuss the FOMC meeting, the Treasury auction, and outlook for a hard landing. Jen Rie, Senior Antitrust Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, and George Ferguson, Senior Defense/Aerospace Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, discuss the Spirit-JetBlue trial, what it means for the industry, and airline earnings and industry outlook. Tim Duy, Chief US Economist at SGH Macro Advisors, joins to discuss the Fed and outlook for rates in 2024. Chris Whalen, founder at Whalen Global Advisors, joins to discuss bank liquidity, the Fed, and outlook for a hard landing. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Galit Altstein, Israel economy and government reporter for Bloomberg News, joins to discuss President Biden's speech in Israel. Chris Whalen, Chairman at Whalen Global Advisors, joins to wrap bank earnings and Fed speak and offers his outlook for the banks, US consumers, and US economy. Pat Pacious, CEO at Choice Hotels (NYSE: CHH), joins to discuss growth for his company a day after their bid for Wyndham was rejected. Amit Kumar, CIO at Param Hansa Values, joins to offer single stock analysis and discusses market risks. Bobby Ghosh, editor with Bloomberg Opinion, joins to discuss the broader impact of the tragic hospital explosion in Gaza and how it impacts President Biden's visit. Mick Mulroy, co-founder of the Lobo Institute and former CIA paramilitary officer, joins to provide his analysis of the explosion at the hospital in Gaza. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Banker and author Chris Whalen (@rcwhalen), chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, joins Julia La Roche on episode 108. In this episode, Whalen delves into what he terms a ‘Silent Crisis' lurking within the commercial real estate sector and its ripple effects on regional banking and the broader economy. Whalen highlights the intricacies of the Federal Reserve's policy shifts and how the central bank is slowly killing the world of credit and putting banks in a tough spot. Links: Chris on Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 0:00 Welcome Chris Whalen to the show  1:14 Big picture is the Fed is slowly killing the world of credit  2:13 Bond market is signaling the Fed is going to stop soon 3:34 Commercial real estate risk  4:18 Banks are looking at another down quarter for net income  5:30 Commercial, not consumer  6:18 New York State Assembly killed multi-family housing  9:26 A typical recession was led by consumers, but this recession is being caused by the Fed  11:24 Landlords are a small business  13:00 Silent crisis 14:50 Impact on banks  16:00 Politics need to change if NYC is going to survive  17:30 A strange economic cycle  19:22 Half the banks in the country are insolvent on mark-to-market  20:24 Banks are a fixed income trade that masquerades as an equity trade 21:30 Fed will drop rates by end of the year because of banks 22:14 Should we have mark-to-market accounting?  23:50 Housing outlook, tips for homebuyers  27:00 Parting thoughts 

Despite the light week of economic data, there was lots going in in the economy to discuss for the Inside Economics team, including the runup in 10-year Treasury yields and fixed mortgage rates. Noted investment banker Chris Whalen then joins the conversation to talk about the banking system, its' under significant pressure, the independent mortgage banks, a shakeout is underway, and the Fed and other regulators, he's not a fan.For more on Chris Whalen, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

Nancy Curtin, Partner and Global CIO/Head of Investment Advisory at AlTi, joins to discuss markets, the Fed, and outlook for China and Japan as emerging markets. Lee Klaskow, Senior Analyst of Freight Transportation and Logistics with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins us to talk UPS earnings. Chris Whalen, Chairman at Whalen Global Advisors, discusses the Moody's credit downgrade for US banks and outlook for the sector. Nancy Tengler, CEO and CIO at Laffer Tengler Investments, joins to talk markets and investing and the launch of her new ETF today. Margie Patel, Senior Portfolio Manager at Allspring Global Investments, joins to discuss how the markets are pricing in the Fed's possible last rate hike of its aggressive tightening campaign. Michael Shah, Senior Industry Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses Danish company Novo Nordisk A/S after its obesity drug cut heart risks in a major trial, as well as other biotech news. Ryan Lockwood, CFO of CarParts.com (NASDAQ: PRTS), joins to discuss earnings and outlook for consumers and his company. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Thanks to today's sponsor, ReadyPrice. For years, mortgage brokers have been logging into ReadyPrice's product and pricing engine to shop for the best loans across multiple lenders. Today, ReadyPrice offers the industry's most powerful independent universal delivery portal where brokers can shop, lock and deliver the best loans, all on one platform—for free! It's a new industry utility that gives brokers more time to focus on building their business. Check them out at ReadyPrice.com.

Alison Williams, Senior Global Banks & Asset Managers Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, and Herman Chan, Senior Regional Banks Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins the program to discuss the Fed Bank Stress Tests. Jackie Bowie, Managing Partner and Head of EMEA for Chatham Financial, joins the program to discuss inflation in the UK and across Europe. Chris Whalen, at Whalen Global Advisors, joins to discuss Jay Powell's comments from this week and the Banks' Fed Stress Test and outlook for the big banks and regionals. Robert Teeter, Head of Investment Policy & Strategy Group at Silvercrest Asset Management, joins in studio to discuss sectors and stocks on the move and what could outperform the market amid various economic headwinds. Jonathan Levin, Opinion Columnist with Bloomberg News, discusses his article on Carnival cruises and what he thinks it portends about 2Q earnings. Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Gaming and Lodging Analyst Brian Egger also joins, discussing Carnival and outlook for the industry. Nancy Curtin, Partner and Global CIO/Head of Investment Advisory at AlTi, joins to discuss markets, the Fed, and outlook for China and Japan as emerging markets. Stacey Stevenson, CEO at Family Equality, discusses diversity hiring efforts and how they've been prioritized as businesses tighten spending and face challenging legislation from lawmakers. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Jess Menton.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ira Jersey, Chief US interest rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses the Fed, rates, and Treasuries. Wendy Schiller, Brown University professor of, joins to preview the indictment of former President Trump and its political implications. Bloomberg TV anchor Kailey Leinz also joins us from Miami. Chris Whalen, founder at Whalen Global Advisors, discusses CPI and a potential pause from the Fed, its impact on the banking industry, and shares his thoughts on AI and Nvidia. Lydia Boussour, EY Parthenon Chief Economist, joins us in studio for a discussion on CPI and outlook for the US economy and inflation in the US. Tim Pagliara, CIO at CapWealth, joins to give his stock picks and discusses his outlook for markets. Jennifer Lee, Managing Director and Senior Economist at BMO Capital Markets, joins the program to discuss inflation in the US and globally as well as her notes on central bank activity around the globe. Scott Baxter, CEO at Kontoor Brands (NYSE: KBT), joins to discuss his company and outlook for performance and consumer trends. Sean Kerins, CEO at Arrow Electronics (NYSE: ARW), joins to discuss his company and tech outlook. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Jess Menton.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

MacroVoices Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Whalen Global Advisors founder Chris Whalen to the show to discuss the formative banking crisis, what's driving it, and what comes next. They also touch on the outlooks for stocks and precious metals. https://bit.ly/414Qj5S The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Download Big Picture Trading chartbook