Podcast appearances and mentions of Mark Zandi

The Inside Economics team records a rare Saturday podcast. They consider the fallout from the just-ended government shutdown on the broader economy and the economic data.  It's not good, but it ended just before it did serious damage. The team also takes up the Trump administration's pivot to addressing affordability, including scaling back tariffs, most important for the group, those on pasta and bananas.  And they introduce a new regular segment of the podcast – listener questions.  So, keep them coming.Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mark, Cris and Marisa discuss the trajectory of the alternative labor market data on what is yet another “jobs” Friday with no official labor market data release. They discuss various outcomes around the federal government shutdown, how and when it may end, and what that means for the backlog of economic data releases. The trio concludes by answering several thought-provoking listener questions.  Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's Analytics Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Fellow Moody's colleague Chris Lafakis joins Mark, Marisa, and Cris as they discuss current economic trends and Chris's recent study on the macroeconomic consequences of hurricanes. Mark starts the conversation by sharing his questions about the latest data on layoffs and how AI is influencing the economy. The team members share their different perspectives before shifting the discussion to the economic toll of Hurricane Melissa and how storms can affect regional economies.Guest: Chris Lafakis – Director of Economic Research, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The U.S. economy is headed for financial collapse. Repo market stress. Private credit market liquidity crunch. Subprime lending crisis. Spiraling deficits. Basis trade exposure. Dollar debasement. U.S. states in recession. Oil market contango. Tariff and trade wars. Each of these are like explosive devices hiding in the corners of the economic edifice that is the U.S. economy. And the Federal Reserve just released a shocking paper that exposes the biggest potential threat of all. Explosive devices have been set all around the economy and a new bomb was just uncovered in the most unlikely of places. Chapters Intro: 00:05:21 Chapter One: The Road to Economic Hegemony. 00:06:24 Chapter Two: Collision Course. 00:30:55 Chapter Three: Hidden Bomb. 00:35:50 Chapter Four: Bring It Home, Max. 00:44:50 Resources The Lead Left: Middle Market & Private Credit – 2/10/2025 Mark Zandi on X Axios: 22 states are in a recession or close to it, new analysis finds The Fed: The Cross-Border Trail of the Treasury Basis Trade FSB: Leverage in Nonbank Financial Intermediation: Final report Morningstar: Official data dramatically underestimates hedge funds' involvement in the Treasury market, Fed paper finds Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Repo Operations Fidelity: Investor behind Zions, Western Alliance bad loans is tied to $270 million in troubled debt Car Dealership Guy: Tricolor: The messy collapse of a subprime auto lender explained Investopedia: Basis Trading: Definition, How It Works, Example The Guardian: What is private credit, and should we be worried by the collapse of US firms? OilPrice.com: Oil Market Braces for Contango and Shale Slowdown -- If you like #UNFTR, please leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify: unftr.com/rate and follow us on Facebook, Bluesky, TikTok and Instagram at @UNFTRpod. Visit us online at unftr.com. Join our Discord at unftr.com/discord. Become a member at unftr.com/memberships. Buy yourself some Unf*cking Coffee at shop.unftr.com. Visit our bookshop.org page at bookshop.org/shop/UNFTRpod to find the full UNFTR book list, and find book recommendations from our Unf*ckers at bookshop.org/lists/unf-cker-book-recommendations. Access the UNFTR Musicless feed by following the instructions at unftr.com/accessibility. Unf*cking the Republic is produced by 99 and engineered by Manny Faces Media (mannyfacesmedia.com). Original music is by Tom McGovern (tommcgovern.com). The show is hosted by Max and distributed by 99.Support the show: https://www.unftr.com/membershipsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, joins Inside Economics to discuss a bevy of topics, including today's belated Consumer Price Index release, the lack of other government data, AI and the labor market, stock market valuations, and the risks to the economy that are top of mind for her. Mark teases a new esoteric vocabulary word but fails to reveal it…stay tuned.Guest: Claudia Sahm – Chief Economist, New Century AdvisorsFor more from Claudia Sahm, check out her Substack here: https://substack.com/@stayathomemacroGuest: Matt Colyar – Assistant Director, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Colleague Matt Colyar joins Cris and Mark on the podcast to discuss the prospects for inflation and the threat posed by subprime consumer credit problems to the banking system and broader economy. They discuss all of this through the prism of concerns raised by clients in their travels this past week: Mark was out West, Matt in Texas, and Cris in Bermuda. Guest: Matt Colyar - Assistan Director, Economist, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn  Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi joins Chuck Todd to assess an economy that looks strong on paper—but feels weak for most Americans. While the top third of earners are doing well, lower-income households are tightening their belts as consumer spending slows and job creation stagnates. Zandi warns of a 30–40% chance of a recession by 2026, citing the drag from federal job cuts, the drying up of COVID relief funds, and the destabilizing effects of rising tariffs and electricity costs. They also dig into the booming—but risky—AI sector, where soaring valuations and limited job growth may be setting up the next market correction. Gold prices are surging, commercial real estate is slumping, and housing shortages are widening for middle-class renters. With Americans increasingly unable to move for better opportunities and faith in Washington deteriorating, Zandi and Todd explore whether the U.S. economy can remain the world’s “safe haven” — or if 2026 could be the year that confidence finally cracks. Got injured in an accident? You could be one click away from a claim worth millions. Just visit https://www.forthepeople.com/TODDCAST to start your claim now with Morgan & Morgan without leaving your couch. Remember, it's free unless you win! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Mark Zandi joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:00 The economy is only good for the top 1/3rd of earners 02:00 Lower income earners are struggling 03:30 Signs of a consumer pullback are starting to show up 05:00 The economy isn’t creating many jobs 05:30 Chance of a recession is forecast at 30-40% in 2026 07:15 The economic impact of the cuts to federal workforce 09:00 Loss of 100k+ federal jobs will be a drag on the economy 10:00 Covid money is drying up in state and local government budgets 10:30 AI is starting to have impact on the job force 13:00 Data center investment creates wealth but not jobs 14:30 Are the AI stocks creating a bubble? 15:30 Investors may be a bit over their skis with AI 16:45 Stock market could be headed for a massive correction 18:00 Stock price to earnings ratios are at historic high 19:30 Tariff impacts starting to show up, AI providing a tailwind for economy 21:00 Economy is very vulnerable to unforeseen shocks 21:45 Price of gold at all time high, a warning sign? 23:30 Uncertainty around American economy driving up gold price 24:45 Risk of American economy not being considered a “Safe Haven” 26:00 Loss of safe haven status means higher interest rates 26:30 Impact of rising electricity prices on the economy 28:30 Oil and gas prices have stayed relatively low 29:30 Why haven’t investors flocked to real estate as an investment? 30:30 The price of commercial real estate is down substantially 31:45 High interest rates have cooled demand for residential real estate 33:15 The high end rental market is oversupplied 34:00 Workforce/middle income housing is in short supply 35:30 Housing issues vary by city and region, hard to address nationally 36:45 How much would the economy benefit from domestic migration? 38:30 Aging population a big factor in lack of domestic migration 39:00 Most Americans can’t afford to move 40:15 Impact of America’s broken politics on the economy 42:00 Will issues with China’s economy affect the globe? 43:00 Level of risk going into 2026?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd breaks down the latest political and global chaos as the government shutdown drags on with no resolution in sight—because, as he puts it, “nothing moves without Trump.” From Trump’s trade threats against China and his transactional diplomacy in the Middle East to Netanyahu’s political freefall in Israel, the episode examines how American and global politics are increasingly driven by short-term leverage over long-term stability. Todd also exposes how Trump’s team has weaponized government institutions—from Russ Vought’s reckless layoffs to Pam Bondi’s politicized DOJ—and how Trump’s online behavior, including an embarrassing Truth Social blunder, raises national security concerns. With the rule of law eroding and America’s moral authority slipping away, Chuck warns that the U.S. may be entering an era where power, not principle, defines governance. Then, Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi joins Chuck to assess an economy that looks strong on paper—but feels weak for most Americans. While the top third of earners are doing well, lower-income households are tightening their belts as consumer spending slows and job creation stagnates. Zandi warns of a 30–40% chance of a recession by 2026, citing the drag from federal job cuts, the drying up of COVID relief funds, and the destabilizing effects of rising tariffs and electricity costs. They also dig into the booming—but risky—AI sector, where soaring valuations and limited job growth may be setting up the next market correction. Gold prices are surging, commercial real estate is slumping, and housing shortages are widening for middle-class renters. With Americans increasingly unable to move for better opportunities and faith in Washington deteriorating, Zandi and Todd explore whether the U.S. economy can remain the world’s “safe haven” — or if 2026 could be the year that confidence finally cracks. Finally, Chuck goes back to the 1987 market crash in the ToddCast Time Machine to compare the conditions then to current market conditions, answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment, and gives his college football update. Got injured in an accident? You could be one click away from a claim worth millions. Just visit https://www.forthepeople.com/TODDCAST to start your claim now with Morgan & Morgan without leaving your couch. Remember, it's free unless you win! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction - New addition to the Todd household 03:45 Trump/China threaten trade retaliation, just posturing? 04:45 Government remains shutdown, no resolution without Trump 06:00 Trump sensitive to tariff price hikes on pharmaceuticals 07:00 Trump’s transactional diplomacy works well in the middle east 09:15 Can Netanyahu survive politically without an active war? 10:15 2/3rds of Israeli voters want Netanyahu to resign 11:15 Many of Israel’s threats are gone, but is now very isolated 12:45 Trump’s government has weaponized/politicized everything 14:00 Russ Vought’s mass layoffs were sloppy, overfired at CDC 16:00 Pam Bondi has overtly weaponized the Justice Department 18:15 DOJ indicting Trump enemies he named in social media post 19:45 Trump was DMing Bondi on Truth Social, mistakenly posted publicly 21:30 Trump’s communications far more insecure than Hilary’s emails 24:15 The current Republican congress just rolls over for Trump 25:15 Trump is destroying the rule of law & reputation of the GOP 26:30 If roles were reversed Republicans would be apoplectic 27:45 US has lost moral authority & credibility on the world stage 29:15 Most military leaders would resign quietly if given illegal orders 30:45 Presidents used to respect their predecessors… not Trump 31:45 Trump’s supposed to govern for the entire country, refuses to 34:15 Trump believes two wrongs make a right 35:15 Trump started a trade war with China, and nobody wins a trade war 36:45 United States is far too reliant on China for rare earth metals 40:00 Mark Zandi joins the Chuck ToddCast 41:00 The economy is only good for the top 1/3rd of earners 42:00 Lower income earners are struggling 43:30 Signs of a consumer pullback are starting to show up 45:00 The economy isn't creating many jobs 45:30 Chance of a recession is forecast at 30-40% in 2026 47:15 The economic impact of the cuts to federal workforce 49:00 Loss of 100k+ federal jobs will be a drag on the economy 50:00 Covid money is drying up in state and local government budgets 50:30 AI is starting to have impact on the job force 53:00 Data center investment creates wealth but not jobs 54:30 Are the AI stocks creating a bubble? 55:30 Investors may be a bit over their skis with AI 56:45 Stock market could be headed for a massive correction 58:00 Stock price to earnings ratios are at historic high 59:30 Tariff impacts starting to show up, AI providing a tailwind for economy 1:01:00 Economy is very vulnerable to unforeseen shocks 1:01:45 Price of gold at all time high, a warning sign? 1:03:30 Uncertainty around American economy driving up gold price 1:04:45 Risk of American economy not being considered a "Safe Haven" 1:06:00 Loss of safe haven status means higher interest rates 1:06:30 Impact of rising electricity prices on the economy 1:08:30 Oil and gas prices have stayed relatively low 1:09:30 Why haven't investors flocked to real estate as an investment? 1:10:30 The price of commercial real estate is down substantially 1:11:45 High interest rates have cooled demand for residential real estate 1:13:15 The high end rental market is oversupplied 1:14:00 Workforce/middle income housing is in short supply 1:15:30 Housing issues vary by city and region, hard to address nationally 1:16:45 How much would the economy benefit from domestic migration? 1:18:30 Aging population a big factor in lack of domestic migration 1:19:00 Most Americans can't afford to move 1:20:15 Impact of America's broken politics on the economy 1:22:00 Will issues with China's economy affect the globe? 1:23:00 Level of risk going into 2026? 1:24:30 ToddCast Time Machine 1:25:15 October 19th, 1987 - U.S. stock market crash 1:26:00 Crash resulted in added financial regulation and safeguards 1:27:45 In week leading up to crash, markets had seen sharp declines 1:28:15 Computerized trades contributed to crashed 1:29:45 Crash wasn't rooted in one singular event/issue 1:30:45 Crash didn't result in wider problems like banking crisis 1:31:30 Lesson learned was "Don't Panic", market came back 1:32:45 Current market is dominated by algorithmic trading, creates risks 1:33:45 Market is highly concentrated in tech 1:34:45 Why 1987 isn't a corollary for 2025 1:36:45 Market will always have volatility 1:37:15 Ask Chuck 1:37:30 Should more candidates not run under the D or R label? 1:42:00 What practices would you suggest to reform ballot access? 1:45:30 Is the risk of China owning Tiktok any worse than Trump allies? 1:49:45 Were Biden's infrastructure projects halted by Big Beautiful Bill? 1:52:45 College football updateSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

William Glasgall, Penn IUR Fellow and Volcker Alliance Public Finance Adviser, Susan Wachter, Co-Director of Penn IUR and Wharton professor, and our expert panel address the record-shattering boom in state and local borrowing even in the face of federal spending cuts and pressure on budgets. How long the boom will continue in the face of conflicting federal, state, and local priorities will be the big question for investors and governments over the coming year. Panelists include: • Matt Fabian, President, Municipal Market Analytics • Fitzroy Lee, Deputy Chief Financial Officer and Chief Economist, Office of the Chief Financial Officer (OCFO) • Vikram Rai, Portfolio Manager and Macro Trader, First New York and former Head of Municipal Markets Strategy at Wells Fargo • Sheila Weinberg, Founder and CEO, Truth in Accounting and • Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics. NOTABLE QUOTES Notable Quotes -Mark Zandi: “This is the first time I can recall where all those indicators are screaming, we've got a problem.” -Matt Fabian: “The Muni market has a chance to be part of the solution to make it not as bad as it might otherwise be.” -Sheila Weinberg: “The strength in the bond market is impressive but potentially misleading…this heightens the risk to investors and to taxpayers.” -Vikram Rai: “I never really believed the Fed was independent. I think there is an element of politics that goes on there… Once the President has control of the Fed, they can maneuver the yield curve.” -Fitzroy Lee: “The downsizing would cost the District about $300 million in revenue losses per year, about 3% of our own source revenue.” -Mark Zandi: “For every percentage point increase in the effective tariff rate, it adds about 10 basis points to inflation…and reduces GDP by 7-8 basis points.” -Matt Fabian: “On the demand side, the Muni market has been functioning fantastically…So long as nominal yields are high enough, individuals will continue to buy the bond.”

It's Monday, October 6, A.D. 2025. This is The Worldview in 5 Minutes heard on 140 radio stations and at www.TheWorldview.com.  I'm Adam McManus. (Adam@TheWorldview.com) By Adam McManus Muslims decapitated or shot 30 Christians in Mozambique, Africa Over 30 Christians were beheaded in a series of recent attacks in northern Mozambique, Africa by Islamic State-affiliated terrorists who also released graphic photographs showing the executions, shootings, and widespread arson, reports The Christian Post. The group targeted multiple villages across Cabo Delgado and Nampula provinces, setting fire to churches and homes in a campaign of violence against civilians. According to The Middle East Media Research Institute, the Islamic State Mozambique group released a 20-image photoset this week, documenting its operatives executing civilians by beheading and close-range gunfire, and burning down homes and churches. The Mozambican insurgency, active since 2017, has led to the deaths of at least 6,200 people. In Deuteronomy 32:35, God says, “It is mine to avenge; I will repay. In due time, their foot will slip; their day of disaster is near, and their doom rushes upon them.” The United Nations estimates that more than 1 million people in northern Mozambique have been displaced since the conflict began, due to a combination of militant violence, prolonged drought and extreme weather events. Open Doors ranks Mozambique, Africa as the 37th most dangerous country worldwide for Christians. Nigerian Muslims killed kidnapped pastor after receiving ransom Armed Muslim groups in Kwara State, Nigeria killed a local pastor after abducting him and receiving ransom payments from his community, reports International Christian Concern. Rev. James Issa, a pastor with the Evangelical Church Winning All, was taken from Ekati village on August 28.  His abductors initially demanded $67,000. Weeks of negotiations followed, with family members, church leaders, and villagers contributing funds to secure his release.  The community raised $3,300, a sum far beyond the means of the rural community. The money was delivered to the kidnappers, but instead of releasing the pastor, the armed group demanded an additional $30,000. Before any further talks could take place, they killed Rev. Issa.  Netanyahu demands release of all 48 hostages in order to end war On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that no part of U.S. President Donald Trump's peace plan will be enacted until all 48 hostages, alive and dead, are returned to Israeli territory, reports The Jerusalem Post. Additionally, Netanyahu stated that if the hostages are not released by Trump's deadline, "Israel will resume fighting with full backing from all involved countries." However, speaking to Israeli journalist Barak Ravid, President Trump told Netanyahu, “Bibi, this is your chance for victory.”  Currently, there is no set deadline for the hostage release, although negotiations to finalize the plan are set to begin in Cairo, Egypt today. An anonymous source told the Jerusalem Post that (a) Hamas, the Muslim terrorist group, is committed to reaching an agreement to end the war in the Gaza Strip and (b) the release of the hostages will be carried out gradually over several days through the International Red Cross. Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared on NBC's “Meet the Press” with Kristen Welker. WELKER: “I want to start with these peace negotiations in the Middle East. Is this now the end of the war in Gaza?” RUBIO: “Well, not yet. There's some work remains to be done, and I would view it in two phases, in terms of understanding how to break this out. “The first piece of it, which is very clear from the letter in Hamas' response, is they have agreed to the President's hostage release framework. And what needs to happen now, and they acknowledge in the letter in their response, is there now needs to be meetings which are occurring, even as I speak to you now, and hopefully will be finalized very quickly on the logistics of that. “What that means is, who goes in to get them? Is it the Red Cross? You know, when do they show up? What place are they going to be? And the conditions have to be created for that to happen. You can't have bombs going off and fighting going on in the middle of this exchange. So, that's piece one. And we want to see that happen as soon as possible, all 48 hostages, both living and deceased. “The second part of it, it's even harder, and that is the long term piece. What happens after Israel pulls back to the yellow line, and potentially beyond that, as this thing develops? How do you create this Palestinian technocratic leadership that's not Hamas, that's not terrorists, and with the help of the international community? “How do you disarm any sort of terrorist groups that are going to be building tunnels and conducting attacks against Israel? How do you get them to demobilize? All that work -- that's going to be hard. But that's critical, because without that, you're not going to have lasting peace. You may get the hostages back, you may get a cessation of hostilities, but in the long term, it's going to happen all over again.” Hero Ukrainian soldier kills 27 Russian troops A heroic Ukrainian warrior killed 27 Russian soldiers singlehandedly while defending two bridges surrounded by enemy forces, reports The U.S. Sun. Rus spent over seven weeks crouched in a putrid-smelling basement protecting the crossings -- armed with nothing more than a firearm and pure grit. The valiant soldier has been recommended for the Hero of Ukraine medal, the country's highest military honor, for his brave work. He personally killed 27 Kremlin forces - steadfast in his defense of the crossings in Dopropilia, in Ukraine's Donetsk region. Speaking to The Times, he recalled the grim reality of spending almost two months taking cover in a gloomy basement as Russian drones buzzed overhead.  He could only use the toilet "at dusk or at dawn" over fears of being struck and for seven weeks only washed with baby wipes. First-ever woman becomes Archbishop of Canterbury Sarah Mullally has been chosen as the new Anglican archbishop of Canterbury, marking the first time a woman has been named to the highest ecclesiastical position in the Anglican Church, reports LifeSiteNews.com. In 1 Timothy 2:12, the Apostle Paul wrote, "I do not permit a woman to teach or to assume authority over a man; she must be quiet.” The seat of the archbishop of Canterbury had been vacant since January 7, 2025, when Archbishop Justin Welby resigned due to allegations of mishandling an abuse case involving John Smyth who beat Winchester Boarding School students until they bled, leaving permanent scars. MarketWatch: 22 states already in recession And finally, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, the U.S. economy is very close to falling into a damaging contraction. Many states are already experiencing a recession. Zandi estimates that 22 states, plus the District of Columbia, are now experiencing persistent economic weakness and job losses that are likely to continue. Another 13 states are treading water. The overall picture is one of a weak U.S. economy that is vulnerable to being pushed into a ditch by a strong wind. The economist added, “The economy is still not in recession, but the risks are very high. We're on the precipice.” Close And that's The Worldview on this Monday, October 6th, in the year of our Lord 2025. Follow us on X or subscribe for free by Spotify, Amazon Music, or by iTunes or email to our unique Christian newscast at www.TheWorldview.com.  I'm Adam McManus (Adam@TheWorldview.com). Seize the day for Jesus Christ.

The Inside Economics team welcomes Lisa Simon, Chief Economist at Revelio Labs, for an unusual jobs Friday podcast as the ongoing government shutdown prevented the release of the September employment report. Lisa details the new public labor statistics data that Revelio Labs began publishing recently in the wake of turmoil at the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The team discusses how private data sources can help fill in the gaps left by the temporary absence of government data and also dissects the current state of the labor market.Guest: Lisa Simon – Chief Economics, Revelio LabsFor more about Lisa Simon, click here: https://www.reveliolabs.com/author/lisa-k-simon/Explore the risks and realities shaping the economy in our new webinar, now streaming for free.U.S. Economic Outlook: Under Unprecedented UncertaintyWatch here: https://events.moodys.com/mc68453-wbn-2025-mau25777-us-macro-outlook-precipice-recession?mkt_tok=OT…Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's Analytics Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Links & ResourcesFollow us on social media for updates: ⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠YouTube⁠⁠Check out our recommended tool: ⁠⁠Prop Stream⁠⁠Thank you for listening!

The Fed finally pulled the trigger on its first rate cut of the year, but before you pop champagne, let's ask the real question: who actually benefits? Wall Street's partying like it's 1999, the top 10% are still swiping cards like money grows on trees, and Jerome Powell is out here trying to convince everyone the house isn't on fire. Meanwhile, middle-class families are staring down credit card bills, mortgages, and a job market that feels more like musical chairs with fewer chairs every month.➡️ We're breaking down the “two-tier economy” McDonald's CEO warned about, why mortgage refis just spiked harder than a college frat party, and how side hustles have gone from optional to survival gear for millions of Americans. This isn't CNBC soundbites or sugar-coated headlines — it's The Higher Standard, where we strip the spin, call out the nonsense, and give you the real story behind the Fed's move.

Heather Long, Chief Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, joins the Inside Economics team to discuss what she dubbed the K-Shaped Economy. She describes the reasons why the well-to-do are thriving and the bottom 80% of the income distribution is struggling to make ends meet. The team discusses the origins of this skewing in the income distribution and why we should care about it. Explore the risks and realities shaping the economy in our new webinar, now streaming for free.U.S. Economic Outlook: Under Unprecedented UncertaintyWatch here: https://events.moodys.com/mc68453-wbn-2025-mau25777-us-macro-outlook-precipice-recession?mkt_tok=OT…Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Ralph interviews New York Times reporter, David Gelles, about his new book, “Dirtbag Billionaire: How Yvon Chouinard Built Patagonia, Made a Fortune, and Gave It All Away.” Then, we welcome back former IRS commissioner, John Koskinen, to update us on how the Trump Administration is dismantling the IRS and stealing your personal information.David Gelles is a reporter on the New York Times climate team and he leads the Times's “Climate Forward” newsletter and events series. He is the author of The Man Who Broke Capitalism: How Jack Welch Gutted the Heartland and Crushed the Soul of Corporate America—and How to Undo His Legacy, and his new book is Dirtbag Billionaire: How Yvon Chouinard Built Patagonia, Made a Fortune, and Gave It All Away.He [Yvon Chouinard] saw Patagonia as a role model for other corporations and believed that by running Patagonia in a different way, he could show that capitalism just didn't have to suck so much.David GellesThere's a paradox that runs through the pages of Dirtbag Billionaire and it's never fully resolved…It's the fact that Chouinard is an environmentalist who wants to reduce the impact of mankind on planet earth, and yet he runs a big, complicated clothing company that is taking a toll on the environment that he's trying to protect. He runs a company that in theory, he says, and in practice is largely doing, the work of funding grassroots activists and environmental conservation. But he's doing it by participating in the very capitalist system that is responsible for so much of the damage to our natural world. And the list goes on. These contradictions are what really has animated Chouinard and his executive team for all these years. They understand their own perfections. But unlike most, they are willing to really examine their own failings, to look it square in the eye, straight in the mirror, and try to figure out how to make things better.David GellesChouinard being a “dirtbag” is something he always identified as and he still does at a certain level. The great insult in his mind is being called a “billionaire.”David GellesJohn Koskinen served as the IRS Commissioner from 2013 to 2017.Lobbyists and corporations are very good at making sure that [tax advantages] always stayed. You never hear too often of tax advantages taken out of the code, what everybody argues about as new ones being put into the code.John KoskinenThese (IRS workers) are very skilled people who in fact have given up the opportunity to make two or three times more money in the private sector because they believe in public service.John KoskinenNews 9/19/25* Just weeks after David Ellison's Skydance Media completed their $8 billion takeover of Paramount Global, Ellison is setting his sights even higher – a proposed $70 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, Variety reports. If this deal proceeds, it would mean that Ellison would control CNN in addition to CBS news, the latter of which he seemingly plans to place under the supervision of “anti-woke” arch-zionist media personality Bari Weiss. While true that cable news does not possess nearly as much clout as it did just a few years ago, this would represent a nearly unprecedented consolidation in that sector. Ellison and his lieutenants would wield a tremendous amount of influence in the media, which would translate to real impacts on the political process. It remains to be seen whether the Trump administration media regulators will take any action to block this deal. Based on their actions so far, it seems unlikely.* In more media news, ABC has indefinitely suspended Jimmy Kimmel Live!, which the comedian has hosted since 2003, after he criticized Trump and his allies for “capitaliz[ing]” on the murder of Charlie Kirk to score political points, CNN reports. Federal Communications Commission Chairman Brendan Carr threatened action up to and including revoking the broadcast license for ABC, which airs the program, or possibly blocking their merger with Nexstar. While Rolling Stone reports multiple executives at ABC and its parent company Disney, felt that Kimmel “had not actually said anything over the line,” they folded immediately under the threat of retaliation by the administration. This move represents a major contradiction of Carr's previously stated belief that “[the FCC] must dismantle the censorship cartel and restore free speech rights for everyday Americans.” Democrats are incensed at this attack on free speech, Congressman Ro Khanna is seeking to subpoena Carr to testify to the House Oversight Committee. Trump, feeling confident after claiming the scalp of both Kimmel and Colbert – two outspoken critics – is now calling for NBC to remove Jimmy Fallon and Seth Meyers, via Truth Social. Variety reports conservative media conglomerate Sinclair will “replace the Friday timeslot of ‘Jimmy Kimmel Live!' with a Charlie Kirk tribute special on its ABC affiliate stations — and is offering the special to all other ABC stations across the country.”* Regarding social media, the Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. and China are nearing a deal on control of TikTok, under a framework in which “an investor consortium including Oracle... Silver Lake and Andreessen Horowitz” would acquire an 80% stake. Oracle is of course run by David Ellison's father, Larry Ellison, one of the richest men in the world, while Andreessen Horowitz is the venture capital firm of Trump ally Marc Andreessen. Silver Lake is another Silicon Valley private equity firm. This deal would finally put an end to the nebulous legal limbo created by Congress passing the TikTok ban and Trump refusing to enforce it. According to this report, the new company that would be created to run TikTok in America, “would also have an American-dominated board with one member designated by the U.S. government.”* The administration is seeking to shore up support in corporate America in other ways too. Trump has renewed his 2018 push to eliminate the reports businesses are mandated to issue on a quarterly basis, moving to a biannual reporting system. Trump argues that this shift would “cut costs and discourage shortsightedness on the part of publicly traded companies.” Others however believe that this change could be harmful to the economy, making companies less transparent and therefore increasing potential investor risk. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) said it is “making Trump's proposal a priority.” This from Reuters.* More troubling signs are emerging in the U.S economy. Per Bloomberg, “Consumers in the top 10% of the income distribution accounted for 49.2% of total spending,” in the second quarter of 2025. This is the highest percentage of consumer spending accounted for by that demographic going back to 1989, according to an analysis of the Federal Reserve's Financial Accounts and Survey of Consumer Finance data conducted by Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's. Chandan Economics reports a spike in late rent payments in August, suggesting stress in the “financial health of renter households,” while for homeowners, Polymarket reports that even more people are searching "help with mortgage" on Google than during the 2008 housing crisis. This comes as only 1.3 million home building permits were issued in August, the lowest level since the Spring of 2020, according to economist and Washington Post columnist Heather Long. Taken together, this data paints a picture of an economy flailing, and kept afloat only by the very rich.* Speaking of the very rich, the first American Pope, Leo the XIV, condemned the precipitous rise in CEO pay compared to their employees. Leo remarked that CEOs now make “600 times more than what average workers are receiving," adding "What does that mean…If [money] is the only thing that has value anymore, then we're in big trouble." Specifically, Leo was referring to the proposed new compensation package for Tesla CEO Elon Musk, which could turn the billionaire into a trillionaire. This from Yahoo! Finance. Senator Bernie Sanders echoed this sentiment, writing “The Pope is exactly right. No society can survive when one man becomes a trillionaire while the vast majority struggle to just survive — trying to put food on the table, pay rent and afford health care. We can and must do better.”* Turning to Israel and Gaza, AP reports Jerry Greenfield of Ben & Jerry's is resigning from the company after 47 years. In a letter, Jerry explains that he could not “in good conscience” remain at Ben & Jerry's because their parent company – the British conglomerate Unilever – has been constraining his ability to advocate against the genocide in Gaza. Jerry writes “For more than 20 years under their ownership, Ben & Jerry's stood up and spoke out in support of peace, justice and human rights, not as abstract concepts, but in relation to real events happening in our world…It's profoundly disappointing to come to the conclusion that that independence, the very basis of our sale to Unilever, is gone.” This is the largest, but by no means only, rupture between Ben & Jerry's and Unilever; this report notes “In March Ben & Jerry's said that its CEO was unlawfully removed by Unilever in retaliation for the ice cream maker's social and political activism.” However, as Greenfield's departure illustrates, the founders have little recourse besides their public platform and resignation.* In a sign of Israel's waning influence in the Democratic Party, POLITICO reports Democratic public affairs “megafirm” SKDK has ended their $600,000 contract with the state of Israel which was supposed to run from April 2025 through March 2026. The firm's recent focus had been “pitching guests for news shows to hear Israel's side of the war in Gaza.” The firm has been tight-lipped on this decision, saying only the work “had run its course.” Yet, this decision comes directly on the heels of reporting that Stagwell, the parent company of SKDK, was involved in “setting up a bot program ‘to amplify pro-Israel narratives on Instagram, TikTok, LinkedIn, YouTube, and other platforms,'” as revealed in a Foreign Agents Registration Act filing.* On Wednesday, Senator Bernie Sanders crossed a major rhetorical rubicon, labeling Israel's actions in Gaza a “genocide.” In an op-ed appropriate titled “It Is Genocide,” Sanders cites the casualty totals – noting that “The full toll is likely much higher, with many thousands of bodies buried under the rubble” – along with the Israeli blockade on the enclave and their systematic destruction of Gaza's infrastructure, including hospitals, water and sanitation facilities and schools. Sanders also cites the genocidal intent expressed by Israeli leaders, through quotes like “the Gaza Strip should be flattened, and there should be one sentence for everyone there — death. We have to wipe the Gaza Strip off the map. There are no innocents there.” Sanders concludes this piece by warning that if the world fails to act, as during the Holocaust, Netanyahu and other “demagogues” will feel emboldened. History, Sanders writes “demands that the world act with one voice to say: enough is enough. No more genocide.” After Sanders' announcement, Vermont Congresswoman Becca Balint came out with her own statement accepting the genocide label. Zeteo reports a total of 20 members of Congress now say Israel is committing genocide.* Finally, to end on a positive note, on Monday the House passed the bipartisan Mental Health in Aviation Act, which seeks to “break down…barriers and support the mental health of our aviation workforce by changing the current rules which prevent aviation professionals from seeking mental health care by imposing unfair penalties on those who do,” according to a press release by the bill's Republican sponsor Pete Stauber. A press release from the Democratic sponsor, Sean Casten, reads “Aviators should not be unfairly penalized for seeking mental health care…The current system perpetuates a culture of silence, and it's past time that changes.” Some observers have attributed some credit for the passage of this bill to the comedian Nathan Fielder's series The Rehearsal, the latest season of which dealt extensively with the issue of aviators' mental health. While congressional staff have downplayed the show's influence, it seems hard to deny that at the very least it raised the profile of this pressing issue. Either way, hopefully this bill will make it safer to fly by removing the stigma from pilots seeking mental healthcare. Get full access to Ralph Nader Radio Hour at www.ralphnaderradiohour.com/subscribe

The Inside Economics team gets together in person at All Hands Day. It is a short podcast, with more than the typical amount of chit-chat (as we are in person). But it is an action-packed conversation on the Fed's rate decision (see if we got it right), our proposal to unlock the housing market, and, of course, the statistics game!Explore the risks and realities shaping the economy in our new webinar, now streaming for free: U.S. Economic Outlook: Under Unprecedented UncertaintyWatch here: https://events.moodys.com/mc68453-wbn-2025-mau25777-us-macro-outlook-precipice-recession?mkt_tok=OT…Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedInQuestions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mark Zandi calls a 50 basis point cut “premature” given “uncomfortably high” inflation. He's concerned about the job numbers as well, saying that if anything else “goes off script, we'll be right into recession.” He argues that we are “very, very close” to recession, and layoffs could upend the apple cart. He discusses the dangers of stagflation and the numbers he's looking for in jobs reports that would signal the tide has turned.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Mark and Cris are joined by Matt Colyar to break down the latest CPI inflation report, while Jared Franz from the Capital Group explores how artificial intelligence is reshaping the American economy and labor market. We examine the opportunities and challenges of the AI revolution and what it means for workers, businesses, and investors in this rapidly changing economic landscape.Jared Franz is an economist at Capital Group, responsible for covering the United States. He has 19 years of investment industry experience and has been with Capital Group for 10 years. Prior to joining Capital, Jared was head of international macroeconomic research at Hartford Investment Management Company. Before that, he was an international and U.S. economist at T. Rowe Price. He holds a PhD in economics from the University of Illinois at Chicago, a bachelor's degree in mathematics from Northwestern University and attended the U.S. Naval Academy. He is also a member of the Forecasters Club of New York, an elected member of the Conference of Business Economists and a member of the Pacific Council. Jared is based in Los Angeles.Explore more insights from Capital Group's Jared Franz in the articles below:4 charts on why the U.S. economy could stay resilient | Capital GroupBenjamin Button's clues for the US economy Explore the risks and realities shaping the economy in our new webinar, now streaming for free.U.S. Economic Outlook: Under Unprecedented UncertaintyWatch here: https://events.moodys.com/mc68453-wbn-2025-mau25777-us-macro-outlook-precipice-recession?mkt_tok=OT…Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Record highs and beyond as stock futures rise ahead of today's critical inflation report. We speak with Moody's Analytics' Mark Zandi for a preview. Plus, Oracle posts its best day since 1993, with comparisons to Nvidia's breakout. And later, Gemini prices its IPO, a big test for crypto appetite after a year of peaks and valleys.

Less than a year after The Economist labeled the U.S. economy the 'envy of the world,' concerns are arising from disappointing jobs reports, slowing GDP growth, and rising prices. In this EconoFact Chats episode, Mark Zandi notes that tariffs and a restrictive immigration policy are contributing to the likelihood of recession and inflation, although he discounts the possibility of a return to the severe stagflation of the 1970s. He also highlights the risks posed by a ballooning national debt. On a positive note, Mark notes the contributions of the AI boom to the economy. Mark is the Chief Economist of Moody's Analytics. He serves on the board of directors of MGIC, the nation's largest private mortgage insurance company, and is the lead director of Reinvestment Fund, one of the nation's largest community development financial institutions.

Dante joins the Inside Economics team to talk about the August employment report. After another set of weak numbers, Mark declares that the economy has entered a jobs recession. Cris and Marisa agree, but Dante would like to see more evidence. They also discuss how the lack of hiring is disproportionately impacting young workers. They wrap up by considering what it all means for the Fed, in light of a big jump in market expectations for more drastic rate cuts by the end of the year. Guest: Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

This hour: Fed Governor Lisa Cook's case heads to court.  A hearing to temporarily block President Trump from removing her from office kicking off at the top of the hour – Carl Quintanilla, David Faber, and Contessa Brewer got the latest from outside the courtroom, along with analysis on what could come next with a former general counsel for the Fed – now Georgetown law professor. Also top of 10: disappointing consumer sentiment data… The team broke down the numbers with Northern Trust Asset Management's top strategist - and Moody's Mark Zandi. Plus: the view from the C-suite… Affirm CEO Max Levchin joined the broadcast to break down the numbers and how the consumer is holding up – along with the Chairman and CEO of Celsius, later on… Talking Pepsi's decision to raise their stake in the name and what it means for strategy.   

Links & ResourcesFollow us on social media for updates: ⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠YouTube⁠⁠Check out our recommended tool: ⁠⁠Prop Stream⁠⁠Thank you for listening!

From Fed Chair Powell's confirmation of coming interest rate cuts to digital wallets, this episode dives deep into the evolving world of digital currencies with guest Ananya Kumar from the Atlantic Council. Whether you're managing your portfolio like co-host Crypto Cris or just trying to keep up with changing technologies, we've got you covered.Guest: Ananya Kumar, Deputy Director of Future of Money, Atlantic CouncilHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Chuck Todd opens with critical media industry news as Nexstar's acquisition of Tegna threatens to devastate local TV journalism through consolidation that will create duopolies and slash newsroom jobs while fundamentally altering how Americans receive local information at the worst possible moment for democratic accountability. He shifts to Trump's complex role as a self-perceived "mediator" rather than Western ally in Ukraine negotiations where his deliberate inaction has inadvertently forced Europe to take security more seriously while Putin's biggest strategic miscalculation remains never giving Trump a political win that could justify backing off. Then, he offers an analysis of how American political strategy has become deliberately divisive through sophisticated microtargeting technologies. He explains that Obama's 2012 victory was misinterpreted and incorrectly assumed identity politics would define future elections when class divisions have actually become the primary fault line in American life.  He argues that the American public still responds positively to authentic unity messaging—suggesting the current toxic political environment is more a product of deliberate strategic choices than inevitable differences and could be reversed by leaders willing to reject a divisive playbook.Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi joins Chuck with a stark warning: the U.S. economy is heading toward a recession largely of its own making, driven by Trump's tariff policies, immigration crackdowns, and federal spending cuts that are creating a perfect storm of economic headwinds. Zandi explains that while tariff impacts are just beginning to surface as companies burn through pre-tariff inventory, the real damage will come from unfilled jobs due to deportations, AI displacing professional services workers, and federal layoffs hitting employment just as troubling indicators emerge—from empty Vegas casinos reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis to homebuilder sentiment at its lowest levels since COVID. The economist argues that Trump's potential corruption of Bureau of Labor Statistics data makes forecasting nearly impossible at the exact moment when reliable economic intelligence is most crucial for navigating mounting risks.The conversation reveals how global economic interconnectedness makes America's policy mistakes everyone's problem, with Zandi warning that U.S. recession would likely trigger worldwide downturn while protectionist policies reverse decades of beneficial globalization—pointing to Brexit's GDP damage as a cautionary tale. He explains why the Federal Reserve faces impossible choices between supporting growth and fighting inflation, while businesses turn to shrinkflation rather than price increases and courts may ultimately strip Trump of tariff powers. Looking ahead to spring 2026, Zandi sees persistent inflation, unfilled jobs, and productivity gains from AI investment that won't materialize quickly enough to offset immediate economic damage, all while massive national debt creates long-term fiscal pressures that could force a reckoning sooner than anticipated—making this recession uniquely self-inflicted through deliberate policy choices rather than external shocks.Finally, he answers listeners' questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Timeline:(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)00:00 Introduction01:00 Housekeeping note - Will release 3 different versions of audio pod03:00 Nexstar buys Tegna, will consolidate and devastate local TV news 05:15 Merger will create local duopolies for TV affiliates, fewer journalists07:30 Merger will have drastic effects on how people get local information08:30 Trump holds court with Zelenskyy and European leaders09:45 Trump sees himself as a mediator rather than ally of the west11:00 Trump's inaction has forced Europe to take security more seriously12:45 Can't sell American public on putting U.S. troops in Ukraine15:30 Putin's miscalculation is never giving Trump a win18:15 If Trump exerted leverage, Putin would back off21:15 Putin has united Europe22:15 American political strategy is deliberately divisive & polarizing23:15 Campaigns used to treat undecideds as moderates24:30 Campaigns discovered independents had a wide range of views25:15 Digital tools allowed for microtargeting of voters26:45 Obama's reelection win was misinterpreted29:00 Both parties thought identity would define politics when it was class30:15 Class is the dividing line in American life32:00 The public does respond to authentic unity messaging34:45 Mark Zandi joins the Chuck ToddCast 35:30 Tariff impacts starting to show up in the economy 37:15 Surprising the impacts haven't been more stark? 38:30 Companies haven't gone through all pre-tariff inventory 39:15 Are there conditions for an interest rate cut? 40:30 Fed will weigh growth over inflation 42:30 Federal layoffs and funding cuts impact on employment 44:00 Major trouble for the jobs market on the horizon 45:15 Immigration policy will leave jobs unfilled 46:15 AI is impacting professional service jobs 48:45 Vegas is empty, similar to before the financial crisis 49:45 Indicators of brewing economic trouble? 51:45 Homebuilder sentiment the lowest since Covid 52:30 If we don't dip into recession, what prevents it? 54:30 What will the economy look like in the spring of 2026? 57:15 Will tariff increases lead to persistently high inflation? 58:45 Businesses are choosing shrinkflation over price increases 1:01:15 Courts could take tariff power away from Trump 1:02:45 Is there hidden productivity in the data due to AI? 1:05:15 AI will boost productivity in the future, just not yet 1:06:00 Will huge investment in AI create jobs/growth? 1:07:30 How can we forecast economics if BLS data is corrupted? 1:11:30 The BLS needs more resources to produce better data 1:12:00 If government data isn't reliable, what's the alternative? 1:15:15 The economic impacts of unreliable government data 1:17:15 If U.S. goes into recession, the world likely does too 1:18:45 The long term effects of a global race toward protectionism 1:21:00 US benefitted from globalization, reversing it is a negative 1:22:00 Brexit the perfect example of protectionism hurting GDP 1:23:45 U.S. economy bounced back best from Covid 1:25:00 When will the massive national debt catch up with us? 1:26:45 Trend lines show a day of reckoning over debt is coming 1:28:00 U.S. policy will be directly responsible for a recession1:30:15 Chuck thoughts on interview with Mark Zandi 1:31:00 Ask Chuck 1:31:15 Have the Reagan Republicans given up? 1:35:45 Are the modern American oligarchs similar to those of the 1860s? 1:39:30 Is Trump taking over DC to dictate the results of elections?

Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi joins Chuck with a stark warning: the U.S. economy is heading toward a recession largely of its own making, driven by Trump's tariff policies, immigration crackdowns, and federal spending cuts that are creating a perfect storm of economic headwinds. Zandi explains that while tariff impacts are just beginning to surface as companies burn through pre-tariff inventory, the real damage will come from unfilled jobs due to deportations, AI displacing professional services workers, and federal layoffs hitting employment just as troubling indicators emerge—from empty Vegas casinos reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis to homebuilder sentiment at its lowest levels since COVID. The economist argues that Trump's potential corruption of Bureau of Labor Statistics data makes forecasting nearly impossible at the exact moment when reliable economic intelligence is most crucial for navigating mounting risks.The conversation reveals how global economic interconnectedness makes America's policy mistakes everyone's problem, with Zandi warning that U.S. recession would likely trigger worldwide downturn while protectionist policies reverse decades of beneficial globalization—pointing to Brexit's GDP damage as a cautionary tale. He explains why the Federal Reserve faces impossible choices between supporting growth and fighting inflation, while businesses turn to shrinkflation rather than price increases and courts may ultimately strip Trump of tariff powers. Looking ahead to spring 2026, Zandi sees persistent inflation, unfilled jobs, and productivity gains from AI investment that won't materialize quickly enough to offset immediate economic damage, all while massive national debt creates long-term fiscal pressures that could force a reckoning sooner than anticipated—making this recession uniquely self-inflicted through deliberate policy choices rather than external shocks.Timeline:(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)00:00 Introduction01:00 Housekeeping note - Will release 3 different versions of audio pod02:45 Mark Zandi joins the Chuck ToddCast 03:30 Tariff impacts starting to show up in the economy 05:15 Surprising the impacts haven't been more stark? 06:30 Companies haven't gone through all pre-tariff inventory 07:15 Are there conditions for an interest rate cut? 08:30 Fed will weigh growth over inflation 10:30 Federal layoffs and funding cuts impact on employment 12:00 Major trouble for the jobs market on the horizon 13:15 Immigration policy will leave jobs unfilled 14:15 AI is impacting professional service jobs 16:45 Vegas is empty, similar to before the financial crisis 17:45 Indicators of brewing economic trouble? 19:45 Homebuilder sentiment the lowest since Covid 20:30 If we don't dip into recession, what prevents it? 22:30 What will the economy look like in the spring of 2026? 25:15 Will tariff increases lead to persistently high inflation? 26:45 Businesses are choosing shrinkflation over price increases 29:15 Courts could take tariff power away from Trump 30:45 Is there hidden productivity in the data due to AI? 33:15 AI will boost productivity in the future, just not yet 34:00 Will huge investment in AI create jobs/growth? 35:30 How can we forecast economics if BLS data is corrupted? 39:30 The BLS needs more resources to produce better data 40:00 If government data isn't reliable, what's the alternative? 43:15 The economic impacts of unreliable government data 45:15 If U.S. goes into recession, the world likely does too 46:45 The long term effects of a global race toward protectionism 49:00 US benefitted from globalization, reversing it is a negative 50:00 Brexit the perfect example of protectionism hurting GDP 51:45 U.S. economy bounced back best from Covid 53:00 When will the massive national debt catch up with us? 54:45 Trend lines show a day of reckoning over debt is coming 56:00 U.S. policy will be directly responsible for a recession

It was a week headlined by crucial inflation data. The Inside Economics crew is joined by colleague Matt Colyar to dig into July's consumer price index. July's CPI was unsurprising, but that doesn't mean it was good. The group discusses why markets might have been too cheery about it and what they think inflation looks like in the coming months (see July's producer price index). Finally, some loquacious responses to a handful of listener questions. Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Trump's economic plans of tariffs for the sake of tariffs ain't working well. We speak to Mark Zandi, from Moody's Analytics, to find out why it's all going so wrong.   Back us on Patreon – we need your help to keep going. Get ad free episodes, extra bits and merch: https://www.patreon.com/c/americanfriction  We're now on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@AmericanFrictionPod  Follow us on social media:  BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/americanfric.bsky.social  Instagram  TikTok Advertisers! Want to reach smart, engaged, influential people with money to spend? (Yes, they do exist). Some 3.5 MILLION people download and watch our podcasts every month – and they love our shows. Why not get YOUR brand in front of our influential listeners with podcast advertising? Contact ads@podmasters.co.uk to find out more Written and presented by Nikki McCanmn Ramirez, Chris Jones and Jacob Jarvis Video and audio editor: Simon Williams. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. Managing Editor: Jacob Jarvis Executive producer: Martin Bojtos. Artwork by James Parrett. Music: Orange Factory Music. AMERICAN FRICTION is a Podmasters Production. www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Former Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erica Groshen joins Mark, Cris, and Dante to cover a wide range of topics, including a somber discussion about the recent firing of the current BLS commissioner. Erica provides key insights into the role that BLS commissioners play in the day-to-day publication of economic data, as well as the longer-term challenges facing BLS and other federal statistical agencies. She also weighs in on the recent revisions to employment data that have garnered much attention and provides a thorough explanation of why revisions happen and the tradeoff between timeliness and accuracy. Guests : Dr. Erica Groshen, Senior Economic Advisor at Cornell University—ILR and Research Fellow at the Upjohn Institute for Employment Research and Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

This week on Facing the Future, Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, explained why he believes the U. S. economy is edging closer to a recession, led by the negative impacts of higher tariffs and restrictive immigration policies. He also weighed-in on the dangers of runaway debt.

Donald moved convicted sex trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell to a minimum security prison in Texas. There's a tape of Todd Blanche's meetings with Maxwell. Allison Gill is suing the DOJ to release the training video. House Oversight Committee issued a bunch of Epstein-related subpoenas. Everyone agrees about releasing the Epstein Files. Donald fires the commissioner of BLS after dismal jobs report. CNBC's Joe Kernan takes on Donald's lies. Hassett says revisions are evidence of rigged numbers, then contradicts himself a day later. Mark Zandi says we're on the precipice of recession. Retribution: the case against Barack Obama goes to a grand jury. With Jody Hamilton, David Ferguson, music by Lucid Soule, Antiquity, and more!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

***Please subscribe to Matt's ⁠Substack⁠ at https://worthknowing.substack.com/*** It's been a rough week for US economic news: weak growth figures, rising new inflation numbers, and a cratering job market. So how bad is all of this? There are few people in America who are more trusted on questions like this than my returning livestream guest, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, Mark Zandi. I asked him about jobs, tariffs, inflation, the Republican budget, stagflation, BLS numbers, and of course, to make the case for his tweet yesterday that the “economy is on the precipice of recession.” 02:38 The Real Story Behind Economic Struggles05:58 Impact of Tariffs and Immigration Policies14:38 Inflation Concerns and Federal Reserve's Role20:13 Long-term Fiscal Impact and Interest Rates25:12 Bond Market Risks and Tariff Policies29:58 Bureau of Labor Statistics and Political Interference35:59 The Role of Psychology and Technology in Economics37:25 Current Economic Uncertainties and Policy Decisions48:18 Trump's Desperation and the Russia Investigation52:51 The Impact of Gerrymandering on American Politics59:22 Worth Knowing: Key Insights and News01:05:18 Conclusion and Upcoming Events

The Inside Economics team turned lugubrious in this week's episode. Given this week's data dump showing that inflation is uncomfortably high and accelerating, and the job market and broader economy are struggling, it's hard not to be. They also consider what it all means for the Fed, which is in an increasingly difficult position, and prospects that the economy will fall off the narrow tight rope it is on, into recession. Guest: Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedInQuestions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

The 2025 U.S. economy leaves no shortage of topics to explore. This week, the Inside Economics crew tries to touch them all. Mark and Cris, joined by Matt Colyar, discuss growing challenges to Fed independence, recent tariff agreements, financial market exuberance, and a U.S. housing market under significant stress. Finally, the team answers several listener questions and offers their latest recession probabilities and expectations for next week's slew of important data. Read the full housing research paper here: https://www.economy.com/bringing-the-housing-shortage-into-sharper-focusHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Automotive economists Jonathan Smoke (Cox Automotive) and Michael Brisson (Moody's Analytics) join Mark and Cris to discuss industry conditions, tariff impacts on production and pricing, and their divergent views on auto credit's future. Inside Economics producer, Sara Rodriguez, makes a special guest appearance to settle the podcast's ongoing chit-chat debate.Read more articles by Jonathan Smoke hereRelated Research on today's topic: Click here and hereGuests: Mike Brisson - director - Economic Research, Jonathan Smoke - Chief Economist & Economic Advisor for Cox AutomotiveHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedInQuestions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.   Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Moody's Analytics Mark Zandi and Cris deRitis are joined by Ira Goldstein from The Reinvestment Fund, Maggie McCullough from PolicyMap, and Jim Parrott from the Urban Institute to discuss their new study that takes a deep dive into understanding the nature of the decade-long housing shortfall. This housing crisis has driven up house prices and rents, and undermined housing affordability. But despite the heightened political attention on the problem, there remains confusion over its true scale and scope. This team of self-avowed housers dissect the shortage down to the census tract and come to some surprising conclusions.To learn more and access the full research paper: https://www.economy.com/bringing-the-housing-shortage-into-sharper-focusGuest: Ira Goldstein, Senior Advisor at The Reinvestment FundGuest: Maggie McCullough, CEO and Founder of PolicyMapGuest: Jim Parrott, Nonresident Fellow at the Urban InstituteHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Links & ResourcesFollow us on social media for updates: ⁠Instagram⁠ | ⁠YouTube⁠Check out our recommended tool: ⁠Prop Stream⁠Thank you for tuning in! If you enjoyed this episode, please rate, follow, and review our podcast. Don't forget to share it with friends who might find it valuable. Stay connected for more insights in our next episode!

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee joins Mark and Cris to talk about the economy and monetary policy. He explains that the up and down tariffs and other economic policies have thrown lots of dirt in the air, so to speak, complicating things for the Fed and thus delaying the normalization of interest rates. He also weighs in on the policy response to the financial crisis and the economic repercussions of artificial intelligence. And tune in to hear why he wants to be 80% Paul Volker and 20% Muhammad Ali. Guest: Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of ChicagoHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Dante joins the Inside Economics crew for an unusual jobs Thursday podcast. The team discusses the disconnect between the positive headlines and market reaction to the June employment report and the weakening undercurrent in the labor market. They also debate whether higher inflation is still looming despite not showing up in the data yet. Marisa steals the show in the stats game with three figures that stump Mark, Cris, and Dante.Guest: Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Mark, Marisa, and colleague Adam Kamins are joined by Ivy Zelman to discuss the housing market outlook. Ivy sheds light on a wide variety of topics, including disappointing demand, the persistent drag from mortgage rate lock, and a lack of listings, adding up to a bearish outlook for prices and sales. The group also touches on regional differences, why builders are pulling back, and the effect of policy changes around tariffs and immigration. Along the way, Marisa and Adam learn the answers to a few existential questions, including “Why am I here?”Guest: Ivy Zelman, Executive Vice President of Zelman & Associates, a Walker & Dunlop CompanyHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn   Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Colleagues Chris Lafakis and Steve Cochrane join Inside Economics to discuss how geopolitics is shaping the outlook and the risks to the U.S. and global economies. But first, the team reminisces about Steve's 32 years as “employee 007” at the company and his upcoming retirement. Steve reveals his secrets for “managing up,” and Mark finds out he's been managed all these years. The conversation then turns to U.S.-China relations and the risk of an oil price shock stemming from Israel's attack on Iran last week.  Guest: Chris Lafakis, Director of Climate and Energy Economics, Moody's Analytics, Steve Cochrane, Director, Chief APAC EconomistHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Samim Ghamami, Senior Economist at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, joins Mark, Cris, and Marisa to explore the rapid rise of the private credit market. With global assets surpassing $2 trillion, Samim breaks down the systemic risks posed by this opaque yet fast-growing asset class. The discussion delves into private credit's role in middle-market lending, private equity, and new markets like infrastructure and real estate, as well as its implications for financial stability and regulation.Access the full paper, Private Credit & Systemic Risk here: https://www.economy.com/getfile?q=2107637A-C535-4AFF-83BC-6CBA1AD1FAB9&app=downloadGuest: Samim Ghamami, Senior Economist at the Securities and Exchange CommissionHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

The specter of stagflation is on the rise.  While the higher tariffs have yet to translate into higher prices, the Inside Economics team and their colleague, inflation-maven Matt Colyar, argue they soon will. And weaker growth isn't too far behind – the team's recession probabilities are increasing again. Mass immigrant deportations, and Israel's bombing of Iran and the resulting spike in oil prices, also point to higher inflation and weaker growth. Just how serious a threat stagflation poses depends on many factors, the least of which is whether the Fed is willing and able to stick to its inflation mandate.Guest: Matt Colyar – Assistant Director, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Sharon Parrott, President of CBPP joins the Inside Economics team to consider the big package of tax and government spending provisions making its way through the legislative process. She explains why she's not a fan, from its implications for the nation's already dire fiscal situation to its hit to programs benefitting lower-income Americans, such as Medicaid and food assistance.Guests: Sharon Parrot - President of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and Justin Begley - Economist and U.S. fiscal policy SME, Moody's Analytics  Additional resources from Center on Budget and Policy PrioritiesBy the Numbers: House Bill Takes Health Coverage Away From Millions of People and Raises Families' Health Care Costs2025 Budget Impacts: House Bill Would Cut Assistance for Children, Raise Costs for FamiliesHouse Republican Reconciliation Bill Would Hard Rural Households, Communities, and Economies Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Dante joins Mark and Marisa for a rare Cris-free Saturday morning podcast to discuss the May jobs report. Given the report's weakness, the team is equally baffled by the positive news headlines and surging stock market on Friday. The team dissects the large downward revisions to the payroll numbers in recent months and whether this signals a recession ahead. They also debate whether the low unemployment rate is giving a false signal about underlying weakness in the labor market.  Guest: Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

The Inside Economics crew talks about the latest tariff news, as well as the reconciliation bill making its way through Congress and the long-term macroeconomic consequences of the bill. Mark gives some rules of thumb about the tariff impact on inflation, as well as the debt-to-GDP ratio and long-term bond yields. Finally, the team answers several listener questions and plays the stats game.Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Cliff Rossi, Professor of the Practice and Director of the Smith Enterprise Risk Consortium at the University of Maryland, joins the podcast to discuss the future of housing finance and the potential release of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from government conservatorship. The team also delves into Dr. Rossi's proposal for fixing the homeowners insurance market and explores concerns surrounding private credit.Guest: Clifford Rossi, Professor of the Practice, Director, Smith Enterprise Risk Consortium Executive-in-Residence PhD, Cornell UniversityHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedInQuestions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

The Inside Economics team is joined by our colleagues Adam Kamins and Justin Begley to play the statistics game for nearly the entire podcast. There are lots of good stats, and it's a nice respite from all the economic drama for the long Memorial Day weekend.Guests: Justin Begley - Economist, Moody's Analytics, Adam Kamins - Senior Director and Head of Regional Economics, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

President Trump setting up for a showdown with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, saying his "termination cannot come fast enough." Then, a first glimpse at Kilmar Abrego Garcia after he was deported to an El Salvador prison. Plus, Health and Human Secretary RFK Jr. contradicts the CDC as he makes comments on autism rates. Peter Baker, Brooke Masters, Mark Zandi, Dr. Vin Gupta, and Matthew Dowd join The 11th Hour this Thursday. 

Tom Emmer's hilarious Trump gaffe. Donald rescinds tariffs for 90 days, sparking new speculation that he's deliberately manipulating the stock market. The Dow gained 2,600 points on his tariff announcement. Adam Schiff is demanding an investigation. NASDAQ call volume spiked just before the announcement. AOC calls for members of Congress to disclose their stock purchases. NYT covers the possibility of insider trading. Mark Zandi confirms there's a 60% chance of recession this year. The House passed the SAVE Act. Donald's poll numbers on the economy and immigration. There's an executive order on shower water pressure. With Jody Hamilton, David Ferguson, music by Freekbass, Worry Beads, and more!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.