Conditionals that discuss what would have been if things were otherwise
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229 episodes with counterfactuals
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Today we discuss one of the most powerful earthquakes to strike Europe in recorded history, an earthquake which knocked down Lisbon in a single, violent day in 1755. The aftershocks would be felt throughout history, however, as a shocked Europe came to terms with the power of nature. What might have happened if it went a little differently?
On today's episode, we tackle a forgotten empire that once ruled the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa, and that once ranked with the likes of Persia, China, and Rome. The mighty Aksum declined before 1000 AD - but what might have happened if it all went a bit differently?
Matt Slick Live (Live Broadcast of 04-29-2025) is a production of the Christian Apologetics Research Ministry (CARM). Matt answers questions on topics such as: The Bible, Apologetics, Theology, World Religions, Atheism, and other issues! You can also email questions to Matt using: info@carm.org, Put "Radio Show Question" in the Subject line! Answers will be discussed in a future show. Topics Include:Biblical Marriage Situation/ Email Question from The Book of Revelation/ A Recent False Prophet Claiming to Be Christ/What About Bible Codes?/ Why Did Jesus Curse The Fig Tree?/What are Counterfactuals?/ Clean and Unclean Principles of The Old Testament, How Does this Relate to Us?/ April 29, 2025
Matt Slick Live (Live Broadcast of 04-29-2025) is a production of the Christian Apologetics Research Ministry (CARM). Matt answers questions on topics such as: The Bible, Apologetics, Theology, World Religions, Atheism, and other issues! You can also email questions to Matt using: info@carm.org, Put "Radio Show Question" in the Subject line! Answers will be discussed in a future show. Topics Include:Biblical Marriage Situation/ Email Question from The Book of Revelation/ A Recent False Prophet Claiming to Be Christ/What About Bible Codes?/ Why Did Jesus Curse The Fig Tree?/What are Counterfactuals?/ Clean and Unclean Principles of The Old Testament, How Does this Relate to Us?/ April 29, 2025
Matt Slick Live (Live Broadcast of 04-29-2025) is a production of the Christian Apologetics Research Ministry (CARM). Matt answers questions on topics such as: The Bible, Apologetics, Theology, World Religions, Atheism, and other issues! You can also email questions to Matt using: info@carm.org, Put "Radio Show Question" in the Subject line! Answers will be discussed in a future show. Topics Include:Biblical Marriage Situation/ Email Question from The Book of Revelation/ A Recent False Prophet Claiming to Be Christ/What About Bible Codes?/ Why Did Jesus Curse The Fig Tree?/What are Counterfactuals?/ Clean and Unclean Principles of The Old Testament, How Does this Relate to Us?/ April 29, 2025
On today's episode we talk about one of the most important naval events in modern history: the pivotal battle of Tsushima, fought during the Russo-Japanese war. The battle was crucial in the rise of Japan as a military and imperial power, setting the stage for huge parts of the 20th century. But what might have happened if it all went different?
On today's episode, we talk about Calendars - specificall the Gregorian Calendar, and how and why it became the calendar we all use today. What does the calendar mean to us, and what might it mean if we used a different one?
On today's episode, we visit one of the most significant maritime accidents of the middle ages, when William Adelin, grandson of William the Conqueror and the only legitimate male heir to the throne of England, was killed with the sinking of the White Ship in 1120. His death would have dramatic consequences for the European continent and English history. But what if it had all gone differently?
Are you interested in what is possible based on physics? Summary of the book titled The Science of Can and Can't – A physicist's journey through the land of counterfactuals from 2021, by Chiara Marletto, published by Penguin.This is a great preparation to our next interview with Chiara Marletto in episode 308 talking about the connection of physics and the future of cities, as part of the Podcasthon 2025 global event.Since we are investigating the future of cities, I thought it would be interesting to see what possibilities are present according to physics. This book introduces constructor theory, a shift in physics from describing what does happen to what can or can't happen.Find the book through this link.Book description: A luminous guide to how the radical new science of counterfactuals can reveal the full scope of our universe. There is a vast class of properties, which science has so far neglected, that relate not only to what is true – the actual – but to what could be true: the counterfactual. This is the science of can and can't. A pioneer in the field, Chiara Marletto explores the extraordinary promise that this revolutionary approach holds for confronting existing technological challenges, from delivering next-generation processors to designing AI. But by contemplating the possible as well as the actual, Marletto goes deeper still, showing how counterfactuals can break down barriers to knowledge and form a more complete, abundant and rewarding picture of the universe itself.Connecting episodes you might be interested in: No.180 - Interview with Ben Vass about the opportunities with physics No.222 - Interview with Adam Dorr about knowledge being applied knowledgeYou can find the transcript through this link.What was the most interesting part for you? What questions did arise for you? Let me know on Twitter @WTF4Cities or on the wtf4cities.com website where the shownotes are also available.I hope this was an interesting episode for you and thanks for tuning in.Episode generated with Descript assistance (affiliate link).Music by Lesfm from Pixabay
On today's episode, we travel to 1943, and one of the earliest battles American soldiers fought with Nazi Germany, in the mountainous regions of Tunisia. There, the fortuitous arrival of artillery stemmed the tide after German forces broke through American defenses at Kasserine pass. But what might have happened if it all went differently?
A casino offers you a game. A coin will be tossed. If it comes up heads on the first flip you win $2. If it comes up on the second flip you win $4. If it comes up on the third you win $8, the fourth you win $16, and so on. How much should you be willing to pay to play?The standard way of analysing gambling problems, ‘expected value' — in which you multiply probabilities by the value of each outcome and then sum them up — says your expected earnings are infinite. You have a 50% chance of winning $2, for '0.5 * $2 = $1' in expected earnings. A 25% chance of winning $4, for '0.25 * $4 = $1' in expected earnings, and on and on. A never-ending series of $1s added together comes to infinity. And that's despite the fact that you know with certainty you can only ever win a finite amount!Today's guest — philosopher Alan Hájek of the Australian National University — thinks of much of philosophy as “the demolition of common sense followed by damage control” and is an expert on paradoxes related to probability and decision-making rules like “maximise expected value.”Rebroadcast: this episode was originally released in October 2022.Links to learn more, highlights, and full transcript.The problem described above, known as the St. Petersburg paradox, has been a staple of the field since the 18th century, with many proposed solutions. In the interview, Alan explains how very natural attempts to resolve the paradox — such as factoring in the low likelihood that the casino can pay out very large sums, or the fact that money becomes less and less valuable the more of it you already have — fail to work as hoped.We might reject the setup as a hypothetical that could never exist in the real world, and therefore of mere intellectual curiosity. But Alan doesn't find that objection persuasive. If expected value fails in extreme cases, that should make us worry that something could be rotten at the heart of the standard procedure we use to make decisions in government, business, and nonprofits.These issues regularly show up in 80,000 Hours' efforts to try to find the best ways to improve the world, as the best approach will arguably involve long-shot attempts to do very large amounts of good.Consider which is better: saving one life for sure, or three lives with 50% probability? Expected value says the second, which will probably strike you as reasonable enough. But what if we repeat this process and evaluate the chance to save nine lives with 25% probability, or 27 lives with 12.5% probability, or after 17 more iterations, 3,486,784,401 lives with a 0.00000009% chance. Expected value says this final offer is better than the others — 1,000 times better, in fact.Ultimately Alan leans towards the view that our best choice is to “bite the bullet” and stick with expected value, even with its sometimes counterintuitive implications. Where we want to do damage control, we're better off looking for ways our probability estimates might be wrong.In this conversation, originally released in October 2022, Alan and Rob explore these issues and many others:Simple rules of thumb for having philosophical insightsA key flaw that hid in Pascal's wager from the very beginningWhether we have to simply ignore infinities because they mess everything upWhat fundamentally is 'probability'?Some of the many reasons 'frequentism' doesn't work as an account of probabilityWhy the standard account of counterfactuals in philosophy is deeply flawedAnd why counterfactuals present a fatal problem for one sort of consequentialismChapters:Cold open (00:00:00)Rob's intro (00:01:05)The interview begins (00:05:28)Philosophical methodology (00:06:35)Theories of probability (00:40:58)Everyday Bayesianism (00:49:42)Frequentism (01:08:37)Ranges of probabilities (01:20:05)Implications for how to live (01:25:05)Expected value (01:30:39)The St. Petersburg paradox (01:35:21)Pascal's wager (01:53:25)Using expected value in everyday life (02:07:34)Counterfactuals (02:20:19)Most counterfactuals are false (02:56:06)Relevance to objective consequentialism (03:13:28)Alan's best conference story (03:37:18)Rob's outro (03:40:22)Producer: Keiran HarrisAudio mastering: Ben Cordell and Ryan KesslerTranscriptions: Katy Moore
On today's episode of the History Guy Podcast, we talk about one of the most important parts of the Columbian exchange, and possibly the reason that Europe was able to colonize and dominate much of the world in the early modern period: The Potato.
On today's episode we tackle the counterfactuals of some of the most popular peoples in history: The Vikings. In the tenth century norse colonists began settling in Greenland, where they found surprising success in some far-northern reaches, before making landfall in North America. The settlements had all faded away by the 1400s, but what might have happened if it had all gone differently?
On this special, 100th episode of The History Guy Podcast, we head back to the 1800s and the beginning of America's expansion into the Rocky Mountains by taking a look at Ashley's 100, a group of trappers, mountain men, and explorers who ventured into the West, helping to define an era and open up the land for settlement. How might things be different if they didn't?
This is the second episode in the trilogy of a lectures by Professor Sarah Paine of the Naval War College.In this second episode, Prof Paine dissects the ideas and economics behind Japanese imperialism before and during WWII. We get into the oil shortage which caused the war; the unique culture of honor and death; the surprisingly chaotic chain of command. This is followed by a Q&A with me.Huge thanks to Substack for hosting this event!Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.SponsorToday's episode is brought to you by Scale AI. Scale partners with the U.S. government to fuel America's AI advantage through their data foundry. Scale recently introduced Defense Llama, Scale's latest solution available for military personnel. With Defense Llama, military personnel can harness the power of AI to plan military or intelligence operations and understand adversary vulnerabilities.If you're interested in learning more on how Scale powers frontier AI capabilities, go to scale.com/dwarkesh.Buy Sarah's Books!I highly, highly recommend both "The Wars for Asia, 1911–1949" and "The Japanese Empire: Grand Strategy from the Meiji Restoration to the Pacific War".Timestamps(0:00:00) - Lecture begins(0:06:58) - The code of the samurai(0:10:45) - Buddhism, Shinto, Confucianism(0:16:52) - Bushido as bad strategy(0:23:34) - Military theorists(0:33:42) - Strategic sins of omission(0:38:10) - Crippled logistics(0:40:58) - the Kwantung Army(0:43:31) - Inter-service communication(0:51:15) - Shattering Japanese morale(0:57:35) - Q&A begins(01:05:02) - Unusual brutality of WWII(01:11:30) - Embargo caused the war(01:16:48) - The liberation of China(01:22:02) - Could US have prevented war?(01:25:30) - Counterfactuals in history(01:27:46) - Japanese optimism(01:30:46) - Tech change and social change(01:38:22) - Hamming questions(01:44:31) - Do sanctions work?(01:50:07) - Backloaded mass death(01:54:09) - demilitarizing Japan(01:57:30) - Post-war alliances(02:03:46) - Inter-service rivalry Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe
On today's episode, we talk about the development of one of some of teh most important communication technologies in history, from the telegraph to the transistor, and what the world might be like if we went without them.
Ivan the Terrible transformed Russia during his rule, but in a fit of insanity, he seems to have killed his eldest son and heir, leaving the future of the realm uncertain. His youngest, Dmitry, died years later under suspicious circumstances. When Ivan's second son, the Tsar Feodor, died without heir, the tsardom faced catstrophe. And into the choas came not one, not two, but at least three people claiming to be Dmitry, who had miraculousy escaped death. The Time of Troubles, as the Russians called it, was defined in part by a series of wars called the "Dmitriads". But what might have happened if it had gone differently?
On today's episode, we talk about one of the most talked about battles in European History: The 732 battle of Tours. Variously called one of the most important battles in European history or a minor skirmish, the battle had a large impact on the minds of Medieval Europeans. But what might have happened if it had gone different?
On today's episode, we talk about cats. While today they are usually just pets, they played a vital role in the history of civilization. So what might have happened if cats were never domesticated?
Matt Slick Live (Live Broadcast of 12-3-2024) is a production of the Christian Apologetics Research Ministry (CARM). Matt answers questions on topics such as: The Bible, Apologetics, Theology, World Religions, Atheism, and other issues! You can also email questions to Matt using: info@carm.org, Put "Radio Show Question" in the Subject line! Answers will be discussed in a future show. Topics Include:Caller Comments on Matt's Recent Debate on Unconditional Election/ If Christ Lives In Us--Why Do We Have to Watch and Be Ready?/We Have a World Wide Knowledge Increase-But Are We Coming Closer to The Truth?/Traveling and Learning/Do Any Jews Believe in Jesus?/ Caller Says a Unitarian Claimed That Matthew 28:19 was Added by The Catholic Church/ Priscilla and Aquilla Had a Church at Their Home—Was Priscilla Therefore a Pastor?/ Matt Discusses—What is a Counterfactual?/What Kind of Bible Does The Roman Catholic Church Use?/Critique of The Apocrypha/ Matt Discusses How Authority is Used in Exorcisms/ December 3, 2024
Matt Slick Live (Live Broadcast of 12-3-2024) is a production of the Christian Apologetics Research Ministry (CARM). Matt answers questions on topics such as: The Bible, Apologetics, Theology, World Religions, Atheism, and other issues! You can also email questions to Matt using: info@carm.org, Put "Radio Show Question" in the Subject line! Answers will be discussed in a future show. Topics Include:Caller Comments on Matt's Recent Debate on Unconditional Election/ If Christ Lives In Us--Why Do We Have to Watch and Be Ready?/We Have a World Wide Knowledge Increase-But Are We Coming Closer to The Truth?/Traveling and Learning/Do Any Jews Believe in Jesus?/ Caller Says a Unitarian Claimed That Matthew 28:19 was Added by The Catholic Church/ Priscilla and Aquilla Had a Church at Their Home—Was Priscilla Therefore a Pastor?/ Matt Discusses—What is a Counterfactual?/ What Kind of Bible Does The Roman Catholic Church Use?/Critique of The Apocrypha/ Matt Discusses How Authority is Used in Exorcisms/ December 3, 2024
Matt Slick Live (Live Broadcast of 12-3-2024) is a production of the Christian Apologetics Research Ministry (CARM). Matt answers questions on topics such as: The Bible, Apologetics, Theology, World Religions, Atheism, and other issues! You can also email questions to Matt using: info@carm.org, Put "Radio Show Question" in the Subject line! Answers will be discussed in a future show. Topics Include:Caller Comments on Matt's Recent Debate on Unconditional Election/ If Christ Lives In Us--Why Do We Have to Watch and Be Ready?/We Have a World Wide Knowledge Increase-But Are We Coming Closer to The Truth?/Traveling and Learning/Do Any Jews Believe in Jesus?/ Caller Says a Unitarian Claimed That Matthew 28:19 was Added by The Catholic Church/ Priscilla and Aquilla Had a Church at Their Home—Was Priscilla Therefore a Pastor?/ Matt Discusses—What is a Counterfactual?/What Kind of Bible Does The Roman Catholic Church Use?/Critique of The Apocrypha/ Matt Discusses How Authority is Used in Exorcisms/ December 3, 2024
On today's episode, we travel to the lofty heights of the Andes, where in the early 1500s Spanish under Francisco Pizarro came across the Inca Empire. The Spanish found the Inca at an opportune time, immediately following the end of a civil war, while wounds were still fresh and tensions ran high, soon culminating in the destruction of the empire. But it was a near thing: and the world could have turned out a lot different if events had gone differently.
Stephen Maitzen argues that the world is deterministic. But if all of our choices are determined, how should we understand free will, the meaning of life, and regret? Read Maitzen's Book here: https://www.routledge.com/Determinism-Death-and-Meaning/Maitzen/p/book/9781032134185 [00:00] Introduction to Determinism and Thought Experiment [00:15] Clark Griswold's Christmas Lights: A Lesson in Determinism [04:01] Probabilistic Explanations vs. Deterministic Explanations [05:06] The Limits of Probabilistic Explanations [12:47] Human Behavior and Determinism [17:26] Infinite Regress and Brute Facts [20:31 ] Time Travel and Determinism [28:20] The Role of Deliberation in Determinism [29:24] Forward-Looking Rationality and Regret [30:50] Libertarian vs. Determinist Deliberation [32:00] Compatibilism and the Illusion of Free Will [33:53] The Rationality of Regret in Determinism [37:41] Counterfactuals and Deterministic Implications [44:40] Determinism and the Meaning of Life [47:56] Libertarianism and Disrupting the Causal Chain [55:13] Compatibilist Responses to Libertarian Objections [59:22] Final Thoughts
Gwern is a pseudonymous researcher and writer. He was one of the first people to see LLM scaling coming. If you've read his blog, you know he's one of the most interesting polymathic thinkers alive.In order to protect Gwern's anonymity, I proposed interviewing him in person, and having my friend Chris Painter voice over his words after. This amused him enough that he agreed.After the episode, I convinced Gwern to create a donation page where people can help sustain what he's up to. Please go here to contribute.Read the full transcript here.Sponsors:* Jane Street is looking to hire their next generation of leaders. Their deep learning team is looking for ML researchers, FPGA programmers, and CUDA programmers. Summer internships are open - if you want to stand out, take a crack at their new Kaggle competition. To learn more, go here: https://jane-st.co/dwarkesh* Turing provides complete post-training services for leading AI labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, and Gemini. They specialize in model evaluation, SFT, RLHF, and DPO to enhance models' reasoning, coding, and multimodal capabilities. Learn more at turing.com/dwarkesh.* This episode is brought to you by Stripe, financial infrastructure for the internet. Millions of companies from Anthropic to Amazon use Stripe to accept payments, automate financial processes and grow their revenue.If you're interested in advertising on the podcast, check out this page.Timestamps00:00:00 - Anonymity00:01:09 - Automating Steve Jobs00:04:38 - Isaac Newton's theory of progress00:06:36 - Grand theory of intelligence00:10:39 - Seeing scaling early00:21:04 - AGI Timelines00:22:54 - What to do in remaining 3 years until AGI00:26:29 - Influencing the shoggoth with writing00:30:50 - Human vs artificial intelligence00:33:52 - Rabbit holes00:38:48 - Hearing impairment00:43:00 - Wikipedia editing00:47:43 - Gwern.net00:50:20 - Counterfactual careers00:54:30 - Borges & literature01:01:32 - Gwern's intelligence and process01:11:03 - A day in the life of Gwern01:19:16 - Gwern's finances01:25:05 - The diversity of AI minds01:27:24 - GLP drugs and obesity01:31:08 - Drug experimentation01:33:40 - Parasocial relationships01:35:23 - Open rabbit holes Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe
On today's episode, we journey back to the fourth century BC on the shores of an Indian river, where an army that had set out from Macedon, more than 3000 miles away had a choice: cross and battle a new Empire and a new army, or turn back home. The ramifications of that decision would be massive. It is history that deserves to be remembered.
Imagine an alternate universe in which the American Revolution fails or where Russia rejects Leninism in its infant stage. Live from the Hoover Institution's Fall Retreat, Lord Andrew Roberts, renowned historian and the Hoover Institution's Bonnie and Tom McCloskey Distinguished Visiting Fellow, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss various historical counterfactuals, including British forces winning the pivotal Battle of Saratoga in 1777; Vladimir Lenin being assassinated before Communism takes root in Russia; John F. Kennedy surviving his motorcade through Dallas; plus China rejecting economic reforms and instead refashioning itself as a second North Korea. Recorded on October 17, 2024.
On today's episode, we discuss the impacts of the largest volcanic eruption in human history - the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora, which would impact the entire world and bring on a volcanic winter: the so called “year without a summer”.
Send a Message to the TeamThe team further extends the alternate timeline following a November 1996 assassination of President Clinton.Panel:Don, Chris, Dylan, EricLinks to previous episodes in this arc.Episode 205 Clinton Cut DownEpisode 212: Gore Steps InEpisode 213: Gore Steps In (continued)You can follow and interact with A Fork In Time on….Discord: https://discord.com/invite/xhZEmZMKFSFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/aforkintimeTwitter: @AFITPodcastOur YouTube ChannelIf you enjoy the podcast and want to support it financially, you can help by:Supporting us monthly via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/aforkintime....or, make a one-time donation via Podfan to A Fork In TimeWebsite: www.aforkintimepodcast.comE-Mail: aforkintimepodcast@gmail.comTheme Music: Conquer by Shane Ivers - https://www.silvermansound.comSupport the show
On today's episode, we talk about the series of events that connect several duels in the life of Alexander Hamilton, and about how the history of the early American republic could have hinged on the choices of a series of prominent men who couldn't keep their guns in their pockets.
Send a Message to the TeamThe team tackles a suggestion from a listener (dezel1963 on Discord) where credit cards and virtual payments are adopted earlier. Panel:Don, Chris, Dylan, EricYou can follow and interact with A Fork In Time on….Discord: https://discord.com/invite/xhZEmZMKFSFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/aforkintimeTwitter: @AFITPodcastOur YouTube ChannelIf you enjoy the podcast and want to support it financially, you can help by:Supporting us monthly via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/aforkintime....or, make a one-time donation via Podfan to A Fork In TimeWebsite: www.aforkintimepodcast.comE-Mail: aforkintimepodcast@gmail.comTheme Music: Conquer by Shane Ivers - https://www.silvermansound.comSupport the show
Send a Message to the TeamIn the second of our Listener Feedback episodes, the team takes on comments from our Discord server on Episodes 207-213.Panel:Don, Chris, Dylan, RobertYou can follow and interact with A Fork In Time on….Discord: https://discord.com/invite/xhZEmZMKFSFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/aforkintimeTwitter: @AFITPodcastOur YouTube ChannelIf you enjoy the podcast and want to support it financially, you can help by:Supporting us monthly via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/aforkintime....or, make a one-time donation via Podfan to A Fork In TimeWebsite: www.aforkintimepodcast.comE-Mail: aforkintimepodcast@gmail.comTheme Music: Conquer by Shane Ivers - https://www.silvermansound.comSupport the show
Counterfactuals strike again! The fora have their own official audio channels now, so The Nonlinear Library will no longer publish new episodes since it won't have any counterfactual impact. It's been a good run. We published thousands of episodes and generated a ton of passive impact. But we're not here for the views. We're here for the counterfactual impact. INSTRUCTIONS TO KEEP LISTENING TO THE FORA 1. Search "EA Forum" or "LessWrong" on your podcast player 2. Subscribe to the official channels 3. Go forth. Seek impact. Seek truth.
Welcome to the second episode of our new take on the podcast: Counterfactuals. This is part 2 of our season opener, talking about what might have happened if a significant president died at a moment where in real life he narrowly escaped death. After talking about Franklin Pierce and Teddy Roosevelt, we turn to the only president who was elected to four terms, who might have been killed before he was inauguarated to his first.
Send a Message to the TeamThe team tackles listener Evan Buck's suggestion about a timeline where Sony and Nintendo continue with their announced May 1991 partnership.Panel:Don, Chris, Dylan, RobertYou can follow and interact with A Fork In Time on….Discord: https://discord.com/invite/xhZEmZMKFSFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/aforkintimeTwitter: @AFITPodcastOur YouTube ChannelIf you enjoy the podcast and want to support it financially, you can help by:Supporting us monthly via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/aforkintime....or, make a one-time donation via Podfan to A Fork In TimeWebsite: www.aforkintimepodcast.comE-Mail: aforkintimepodcast@gmail.comTheme Music: Conquer by Shane Ivers - https://www.silvermansound.comSupport the show
Send a Message to the TeamListener Evan Buck joins as a guest to explore an alternative Maryland during the American Civil War with the team.Panel:Don, Chris, Dylan, Robert, and Evan Buck (guest).Links to Referenced EpisodesEpisode 0076—Imagine A CrossoverEpisode 0131—Little MAC (Move After Christmas)You can follow and interact with A Fork In Time on….Discord: https://discord.com/invite/xhZEmZMKFSFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/aforkintimeTwitter: @AFITPodcastOur YouTube ChannelIf you enjoy the podcast and want to support it financially, you can help by:Supporting us monthly via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/aforkintime....or, make a one-time donation via Podfan to A Fork In TimeWebsite: www.aforkintimepodcast.comE-Mail: aforkintimepodcast@gmail.comTheme Music: Conquer by Shane Ivers - https://www.silvermansound.comSupport the show
In 1902, Teddy Roosevelt was involved in a carriage accident which nearly killed him. In 1853, President-Elect Franklin Pierce watched hs son die in a train accident mere weeks before his inauguration. But what if those events went differently, and those presidents were killed?What is a counterfactual? In the context of studying history, it is a kind of analysis where we examine what might have happened had historical events gone differently. As a thought experiment, the goal is too learn and understand history as it is by talking about what it could have been.
Send a Message to the TeamDon and Chris explore what would have happened if one of the most famous incorrect newspaper headlines had actually been true, and Thomas Dewey had won the 1948 US presidential election.Panel:Don, ChrisYou can follow and interact with A Fork In Time on….Discord: https://discord.com/invite/xhZEmZMKFSFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/aforkintimeTwitter: @AFITPodcastOur YouTube ChannelIf you enjoy the podcast and want to support it financially, you can help by:Supporting us monthly via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/aforkintime....or, make a one-time donation via Podfan to A Fork In TimeWebsite: www.aforkintimepodcast.comE-Mail: aforkintimepodcast@gmail.comTheme Music: Conquer by Shane Ivers - https://www.silvermansound.comSupport the show
Even when a decision is clear, and things turn out badly, the lack of a counterfactual allows endless second guessing. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.sensible-med.com/subscribe
Send a Message to the TeamDon looks at the implications of no P-51 Mustang to escort bombers during the World War II bombing campaigns.Panel:DonLinks to Videos on the P51 MustangThe P-51 Mustang: The Fighter that Won World War IIHow the P-51 Mustang Won the WarYou can follow and interact with A Fork In Time on….Discord: https://discord.com/invite/xhZEmZMKFSFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/aforkintimeTwitter: @AFITPodcastOur YouTube ChannelIf you enjoy the podcast and want to support it financially, you can help by:Supporting us monthly via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/aforkintime....or, make a one-time donation via Podfan to A Fork In TimeWebsite: www.aforkintimepodcast.comE-Mail: aforkintimepodcast@gmail.comTheme Music: Conquer by Shane Ivers - https://www.silvermansound.comSupport the Show.
Send a Message to the TeamThe team continues the discussion a fork where President Clinton was assassinated in November 1996, and Al Gore assumes the presidency.Panel:Don, Chris, Eric, RobertYou can follow and interact with A Fork In Time on….Discord: https://discord.com/invite/xhZEmZMKFSFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/aforkintimeTwitter: @AFITPodcastOur YouTube ChannelIf you enjoy the podcast and want to support it financially, you can help by:Supporting us monthly via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/aforkintime....or, make a one-time donation via Podfan to A Fork In TimeWebsite: www.aforkintimepodcast.comE-Mail: aforkintimepodcast@gmail.comTheme Music: Conquer by Shane Ivers - https://www.silvermansound.comSupport the Show.
To kick off our new series on counterfactual histories David talks to the geneticist and science writer Adam Rutherford about whether ‘What Ifs' make sense in science. If one person doesn't make the big discovery, will someone else do it? Are scientific breakthroughs the product of genius or of wealth and power? And how might the world have been a completely different place if the Haber-Bosch process had not been developed in Germany in 1913?Sign up now to PPF+ to get ad-free listening and all our bonus episodes: 24 bonuses per year for just £5 a month or a £50 annual subscription www.ppfideas.com Next time: What if… the French Revolution had happened in China? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Send a Message to the TeamIn the first of our Listener Feedback episodes, the team takes on comments from our Discord server on Episodes 201-206.Panel:Don, Chris, Dylan, Robert, EricYou can follow and interact with A Fork In Time on….Discord: https://discord.com/invite/xhZEmZMKFSFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/aforkintimeTwitter: @AFITPodcastOur YouTube ChannelIf you enjoy the podcast and want to support it financially, you can help by:Supporting us monthly via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/aforkintime....or, make a one-time donation via Podfan to A Fork In TimeWebsite: www.aforkintimepodcast.comE-Mail: aforkintimepodcast@gmail.comTheme Music: Conquer by Shane Ivers - https://www.silvermansound.comSupport the Show.
Send a Message to the TeamThe team explores the impact of the loss of several key figures in American military history prior to the seizing of Veracruz in the Mexican-American War.Panel:Don, Chris, Dylan, Robert, EricYou can follow and interact with A Fork In Time on….Discord: https://discord.com/invite/xhZEmZMKFSFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/aforkintimeTwitter: @AFITPodcastOur YouTube ChannelIf you enjoy the podcast and want to support it financially, you can help by:Supporting us monthly via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/aforkintime....or, make a one-time donation via Podfan to A Fork In TimeWebsite: www.aforkintimepodcast.comE-Mail: aforkintimepodcast@gmail.comTheme Music: Conquer by Shane Ivers - https://www.silvermansound.comSupport the Show.
Send a Message to the TeamLooking at the baseball "what if" of the late Willie Mays surpassing Babe Ruth as the all-time leader in home runs.Panel:Don and Ryan Cole (Guest)Baseball Reference Page for Willie MaysPast Episodes with Ryan as a GuestEpisode 7: 42 RevisitedEpisode 15: Lose The ForceEpisode 130: ExpodusYou can follow and interact with A Fork In Time on….Discord: https://discord.com/invite/xhZEmZMKFSFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/aforkintimeTwitter: @AFITPodcastOur YouTube ChannelIf you enjoy the podcast and want to support it financially, you can help by:Supporting us monthly via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/aforkintime....or, make a one-time donation via Podfan to A Fork In TimeWebsite: www.aforkintimepodcast.comE-Mail: aforkintimepodcast@gmail.comTheme Music: Conquer by Shane Ivers - https://www.silvermansound.comSupport the Show.
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Send a Message to the TeamA statement from Don on behalf of the A Fork In Time team regarding political discourse.You can follow and interact with A Fork In Time on….Discord: https://discord.com/invite/xhZEmZMKFSFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/aforkintimeTwitter: @AFITPodcastOur YouTube ChannelIf you enjoy the podcast and want to support it financially, you can help by:Supporting us monthly via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/aforkintime....or, make a one-time donation via Podfan to A Fork In TimeWebsite: www.aforkintimepodcast.comE-Mail: aforkintimepodcast@gmail.comTheme Music: Conquer by Shane Ivers - https://www.silvermansound.comSupport the Show.
Send a Message to the TeamListener Marcos Belen joins Chris Coppola to explore an alternative where the White Army prevails in revolutionary Russia.Panel:Chris and listener/guest Marcos BelenYou can follow and interact with A Fork In Time on….Discord: https://discord.com/invite/xhZEmZMKFSFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/aforkintimeTwitter: @AFITPodcastOur YouTube ChannelIf you enjoy the podcast and want to support it financially, you can help by:Supporting us monthly via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/aforkintime....or, make a one-time donation via Podfan to A Fork In TimeWebsite: www.aforkintimepodcast.comE-Mail: aforkintimepodcast@gmail.comTheme Music: Conquer by Shane Ivers - https://www.silvermansound.comSupport the Show.
Send a Message to the TeamThe team looks at an earlier timing and route for the US Transcontinental Railroad.Panel: Don, Chris, Dylan, and RobertYou can follow and interact with A Fork In Time on….Discord: https://discord.com/invite/xhZEmZMKFSFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/aforkintimeTwitter: @AFITPodcastOur YouTube ChannelIf you enjoy the podcast and want to support it financially, you can help by:Supporting us monthly via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/aforkintime....or, make a one-time donation via Podfan to A Fork In TimeWebsite: www.aforkintimepodcast.comE-Mail: aforkintimepodcast@gmail.comTheme Music: Conquer by Shane Ivers - https://www.silvermansound.comSupport the Show.
Historians differ over the need to explore “counterfactuals”—the study of scenarios that never happened—and what they can tell us about historical causation. Stephen Kotkin, the Hoover Institution's Kleinheinz Senior Fellow and noted historian of Russia, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to discuss alternative historical outcomes: Stalin not surviving a two-front invasion in World War II and Churchill dying well beforehand; the American Revolution failing; the Beatles never spearheading pop music's British Invasion; a Trump victory in 2020 and its potential effect on the current state of affairs in Ukraine and the Middle East; plus a world in which COVID never happened (spoiler alert: it might have impacted John and Niall's book sales).
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