Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

US White House is reportedly tempering expectations of an imminent breakthrough between US-Iran, Semafor reported, with a source suggesting that "the bar is being raised very high."The Iranian government spokesperson said Foreign Minister Araghchi presented President Pezeshkian with a US proposal following his New York trip, which included discussions on Iran's conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, IRNA reported.UKMTO said that a crude oil tanker was struck on the port side by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on September 29th.US equity futures pare back earlier gains with Micron earnings on the docket after-hours.DXY continues to fall following dovish comments by Fed's Williams; AUD underperforms following cooler-than-expected inflation.Fixed income benchmarks climb; Gilts weighed on by the upside GDP revision.Energy benchmarks rebound slightly from Tuesday's losses (Brent +1.1%).Looking ahead, highlights include German CPI (Sep), US PCE Price Index (Aug/Q2), GDP Final (Q2), Atlanta Fed GDP. Speakers include ECB's Elderson & Schnabel, Fed's Barkin, Cook, Goolsbee & Kashkari. The US Treasury buyback announcement (10-20yr; liquidity support). Earnings from Micron, Accenture & McCormick.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US-Iran talks and efforts by mediators this week yielded little progress, raising the odds of renewed combat, while Qatar will continue efforts despite growing frustrations with both sides, according to Axios.An Iranian diplomatic source said Iran will only be ready to discuss the nuclear issue after the Strait of Hormuz issue is resolved and Washington lifts the blockade.APAC stocks were ultimately mixed; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open.DXY took a breather after gaining yesterday; 10yr UST futures edged higher overnight following the prior day's steepening.Crude futures were constrained after sliding yesterday following several downside catalysts; Spot gold was little changed beneath the USD 4,200/oz level.Looking ahead, highlights include German Retail Sales (Aug), French CPI (Sep), German State/National CPI (Sep), Italian CPI (Sep), US PCE Price Index (Aug/Q2), GDP Final (Q2), Atlanta Fed GDP. Speakers include ECB's Elderson & Schnabel, Fed's Barkin, Cook, Goolsbee & Kashkari. Supply from Germany, US Treasury buyback announcement (10-20yr; liquidity support), Earnings from Micron, Accenture & McCormick.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Tehran discussed proposals with Qatari mediators to present to the US, and that a response is to be relayed to Tehran through Qatari mediators. Iranian Foreign Minister said they expect a US response today; Brent -0.2%Iran was reported to have agreed to halt enrichment in exchange for easing US sanctions, although the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson later denied these reports.US President Trump denied reports that he is prepared to ease sanctions on Iran and release its frozen assets in exchange for progress on the nuclear issue.European bourses are firmer; US equity futures trade on either side of the unchanged mark.DXY is slightly stronger, holding just shy of 101.50; Aussie lags after the RBA hiked rates by 25bps, though Governor Bullock tilted dovish.Gilts outperform ahead of UK PM Burnham; USTs await data, Fed speak and geopolitical updates.Looking ahead, highlights include US JOLTS (Aug). Speakers include ECB's Lagarde, Vujcic & Lane, Fed's Musalem, Goolsbee, Williams, Bowman, Barr & Waller, BoC's Gravelle, BoE's Taylor & Mann. Earnings from Micron.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Tehran discussed proposals with Qatari mediators to present to the US, and that a response is to be relayed to Tehran through Qatari mediators. Iranian Foreign Minister said they expect a US response today.Iran was reported to have agreed to halt enrichment in exchange for easing US sanctions, although the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson later denied these reports.US President Trump denied reports that he is prepared to ease sanctions on Iran and release its frozen assets in exchange for progress on the nuclear issue.The RBA hiked rates by 25bps to 4.60%, as expected, and noted it will raise the cash rate further if needed; Press conference at 06:30 BST.Crude futures edged higher overnight; APAC stocks were mostly subdued; European equity futures indicate a flat/positive cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include Spanish Inflation (Sep) & Retail Sales (Aug), EZ Economic Sentiment (Sep), US JOLTS (Aug). Speakers include RBA's Bullock, ECB's Cipollone, Lagarde, Vujcic & Lane, Fed's Goolsbee, Williams, Bowman, Barr & Waller, BoC's Gravelle, BoE's Taylor & Mann. Supply from the UK & Italy. Earnings from Micron.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated Iran wants to make a deal in which they open the strait immediately. He expects talks with Iran to resume this week even though he rejected Iran's latest proposal.Iran's delegation in New York has no plans for talks with the US, according to a source close to the delegation cited by IRNA; Brent +3.3%.European bourses were initially firmer but now off best levels; NQ -1% lags on elevated yields and tech underperformance.DXY is steady; JPY strengthens on further jawboning from officials.Yields reside at multi-decade highs as energy benchmarks continue to rise; US 10yr holds at 5.23%.Looking ahead, highlights include speeches from ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Ramsden, Fed's Barkin, Bowman, Cook and UK Chancellor HealeyRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated Iran wants to make a deal in which they open the strait immediately.US President Trump said he expects talks with Iran to resume this week even though he rejected Iran's latest proposal.Iran's delegation in New York has no plans for talks with the US, according to a source close to the delegation cited by IRNA.Crude futures were lifted at the open; 10yr UST futures declined with yields higher across the curve, DXY traded mildly higher amid upside in oil and yields.APAC stocks began the week mixed as higher oil prices spurred hawkish rate bets; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include speeches from ECB's Elderson & Lagarde, BoE's Ramsden, Fed's Barkin. Supply from the Eurozone.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran presented a proposal to the US through mediators this week to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart negotiations towards a final deal; Brent -1.6%.Chinese President Xi said China and the US reached a common understanding on many issues.European bourses gain as Iran offers hope of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; US equity futures follow suit, NQ +0.6%.DXY is slightly lower, whilst the JPY gains after Trump voiced concerns about a weak JPY to PM Takaichi.Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods Orders (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3). Speakers include Fed's Hammack & Schmid, ECB's Vujcic. Credit ratings, including Moody's on the EU & Italy, and Scope Ratings on the EU.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran presented a proposal to the US through mediators this week to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart negotiations towards a final deal.Chinese President Xi urged the US and Iran to return to resolving issues through negotiation as soon as possible, according to Xinhua.Chinese President Xi said China and the US reached a common understanding on many issues.Crude futures pulled back overnight after the prior day's advances, with the reversal seen following reports that the US and Iran discussed a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.APAC stocks were ultimately mixed following the inconclusive handover from the US; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include German GfK Consumer Confidence (Oct), US Durable Goods Orders (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3). Speakers include Fed's Williams, Hammack & Schmid, ECB's Vujcic, BoE Governor Bailey. Credit ratings, including Moody's on the EU & Italy, and Scope Ratings on the EU.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Senior adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Major General Safavi said the scope of the war may expand to the Indian Ocean and other regions, if the US starts a new war.US Treasury Secretary Bessent announced a two-month extension to the trade truce with China, extending to January 10th.A flurry of Central Bank announcements; SNB and Riksbank hold while the Norges Bank hiked by 25bps to 4.50%.Global equities are under pressure amid the hawkish comments by Iranian officials, which has lifted the energy complex (Brent +2.1%).DXY makes fresh WTD highs as US yields remain at elevated levels (US 10yr yield 5.15%).Looking ahead, highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims, Chinese President Xi's state visit to the US, Banxico Policy Announcement. Speakers include Fed's Barkin, Hammack & Paulson, BoE's Breeden & Lombardelli. Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US-China trade truce was extended to January 10th, while he doesn't know if a bigger trade deal can be done with China and could just roll the current deal forward.US reportedly dismissed Iran's Hormuz offer during UN talks, saying Tehran does not control the Strait, the Times of Israel reported.White House official denied Politico reports that the Trump administration is preparing a plan to ban exports of diesel for 90 days.Crude futures slightly pulled back overnight, 10yr UST futures lingered near the prior day's trough, and DXY paused overnight.APAC stocks were mostly pressured; Nikkei outperformed on return from holiday, and European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include German Ifo, US Initial Jobless Claims, Chinese President Xi's state visit to the US. Policy announcements from the Riksbank, SNB, Norges Bank, and Banxico. Speakers include ECB's Schnabel & Lane, Fed's Williams, Barkin, Hammack & Paulson, BoE's Dhingra, Breeden & Lombardelli, SNB's Schlegel, Riksbank's Thedeen, Norges Bank's Bache. Supply from Italy & the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US Envoy Witkoff said mediators will continue their work, and he hopes talks will be constructive and promising.However, US sources told Al Hadath that the chance of a deal is limited and major disputes and obstacles remain.US equity futures give back earlier gains as focus turns to the Trump-Xi meeting.DXY bids higher despite lower energy prices; EUR little moved following broadly stronger PMI metrics.Fixed income benchmarks trade rangebound, as energy lacks a clear direction (Brent +0.3%).Looking ahead, highlights include US S&P PMIs Flash (Sep), SARB Policy Announcement. UN Meetings include Trump-Sharif meeting, Senior Iranian leaders-GCC meeting, Iranian President Pezeshkian address. Speakers include ECB's Cipollone & Lane, Fed's Barr. Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he thinks a settlement will be reached with Iran, and noted that some US-Iran communication has taken place even today and that the relationship with Iran is developing.US President Trump said envoys Witkoff and Kushner met with Iran mediators and that there were lots of good thoughts. Trump later commented that he thinks Iran will do something good.Trump also warned that they may have to blow up Pickaxe Mountain and that they will attack if they see activity. He reiterated that he thinks the Iran war could end after the Midterms, maybe before.Crude futures were subdued overnight after declining yesterday amid hopes for diplomacy following US-Iran talks on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.APAC stocks were ultimately mixed following the similar handover from the US; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include Global S&P PMIs Flash (Sep) and the SARB Policy Announcement. UN Meetings include the Trump-Sharif meeting, Senior Iranian leaders-GCC meeting, and Iranian President's address. Speakers include ECB's Vujcic, Cipollone & Lane, Fed's Barr. Supply from Germany and the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Crude benchmarks have reversed earlier gains after Kyodo reported, citing an Iranian official, that Iran has suggested to the US administration that it will open the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ports and stops military operations related to Hormuz.Alongside the Kyodo report were constructive comments by the IRGC, stating that if Iran's national interests require negotiations alongside war, then it must negotiate.Brent has returned below USD 94/bbl on the above headlines.A constructive risk tone followed, with equity futures and fixed income rising while the USD weakened.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly, NBH Policy Announcement. UN Meetings: UN General Debate including Trump, Macron, Burnham; Trump-Zelensky meeting; Trump-Burnham meeting; Trump-Gulf Leaders meeting. Comments from ECB's Lagarde & Nagel, Fed's Williams, Jefferson & Barkin. Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he had meetings regarding Iran and that Iran is not doing well; the Pakistani Interior Minister held consultations in Iran on efforts to advance the peace process.US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he will present US President Trump with a US-China AI pact, while Trump is to decide on a US-China AI deal this week.APAC stocks mostly gained following the advances on Wall Street, where the Nasdaq outperformed.DXY was little changed but held on to the prior day's gains; 10yr UST futures took a breather following recent gains.European equity futures indicate a slightly positive cash market open, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2%.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Italian 2025 Deficit Update, NBH Policy Announcement. UN Meetings: UN General Debate including Trump, Macron, Burnham; Trump-Zelensky meeting; Trump-Burnham meeting; Trump-Gulf Leaders meeting. Comments from ECB's Lagarde & Nagel, Fed's Williams, Jefferson & Barkin. Supply from UK, Germany and the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump reportedly said on Sunday that he is thinking of "blowing up" all of Iran as he left the Camp David retreat a day early to return to the White House.Pakistani Interior Minister travelled to Iran to discuss bilateral relations and cooperation, but it will be unrelated to Iran-US matters.German Chancellor Merz vowed to stay on despite a ‘disaster' in regional elections, with partial results showing his CDU at just under the 5% threshold for parliamentary representation in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.US equity futures gain as "successful" US-China talks boost optimism.DXY muted despite softer energy prices; EUR unreactive following German politics.Fixed income benchmarks are firmer given the downside in the crude complex (Brent Dec'26 -1.7%).Looking ahead, highlights include comments from ECB's Lagarde, Cipollone, Fed's Goolsbee and BoC's Macklem.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump reportedly said on Sunday that he is thinking of "blowing up" all of Iran as he left the Camp David retreat a day early to return to the White House.Crude futures initially advanced at the open following reports over the weekend that Houthis targeted a Saudi oil facility in Yanbu and with air raid alerts issued in Riyadh.Crude prices then retreated throughout the session despite the lack of fresh news behind the reversal, although Trump also signalled openness to meeting Iran's President.German Chancellor Merz vowed to stay on despite a ‘disaster' in regional elections, with partial results showing his CDU at just under the 5% threshold for parliamentary representation in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.APAC stocks were ultimately mixed, but with cautious gains; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include comments from ECB's Lagarde, Cipollone, Fed's Goolsbee and BoC's Macklem.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The BoJ hiked rates by 25bps to 1.25%, as expected, with the decision made by a 7-2 vote.In the press conference, BoJ Governor Ueda said the BoJ believes the phase of policy has changed but clarified that the objective is now to stabilise underlying inflation at around 2%.US equity futures are mixed, with outperformance in tech as gains extend following Nvidia's Huang comments of doubling chip sales in 2027.DXY is slightly firmer; JPY the clear laggard as 2 dissenters give the BoJ a dovish tilt.Fixed income benchmarks are lower due to multiple factors which include elevated energy prices and hawkish ECB speak.Crude prices pare earlier downside despite a clear driver.Looking ahead, highlights include Quad witching, US Industrial/Manufacturing Production (Aug). Speakers include Fed's Bowman and Schmid. Credit Rating upgrades from Morningstar DBRS on France, Scope Ratings on France, and Moody's on Germany.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump told Axios he is at a "critical juncture" regarding the war in Iran, weighing whether to launch massive new attacks or pursue a different path to end the conflict.BoJ hiked rates by 25bps to 1.25%, as expected, with the decision made by a 7-2 vote; USD/JPY outperformed.Crude futures were lacklustre after declining yesterday alongside de-escalatory reports.APAC stocks were mostly higher as the region took impetus from the gains on Wall Street, where markets reversed the post-FOMC moves amid a Fed credibility boost and lower oil prices.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open, with Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.3% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.9% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include Quad witching, German PPI (Aug), UK Retail Sales (Aug), US Industrial/Manufacturing Production (Aug). Speakers include BoJ Governor Ueda, ECB's Lagarde, Fed's Bowman and Schmid. Credit Rating upgrades from Morningstar DBRS on France, Scope Ratings on France, and Moody's on Germany.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump threatened to impose heavy tariffs on Europe if it considers Europe's decision to grant Canada observer status a hostile act.US President Trump said they are working very hard on Russia and Ukraine, while he added that the Ukraine war is the toughest war to end and is the one driving up diesel prices. On Iran, Trump said Iran wants to make a deal and hopefully we're more at the end of the Iran war.US equity futures climb and have pared entirely the downside seen post-Fed.DXY gives back some of Wednesday's gains; NZD strengthens following a stronger growth report.US 10-year yields fall back below 5%; Gilts on watch with BoE ahead.Energy benchmarks fall amid a lack of geopolitical escalation and constructive Trump comments.Looking ahead highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims (Sep/12), Housing Starts (Aug), Building Permits Prelim. (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), New Zealand Trade Balance (Aug). BoE Policy Announcement, CNB Policy Announcement. Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The Fed hiked rates by 25bps as expected in a unanimous decision, while the median projection saw another hike by year-end before rates remain on hold throughout 2027.The statement reiterated the Fed's commitment to price stability, a message echoed by Chair Warsh in the press conference.US stocks were pressured and the major indices largely finished lower; APAC stocks traded mixed, DXY and yields held onto post-FOMC gains.US President Trump said the US may impose heavy tariffs on Europe if it considers Europe's decision to grant Canada observer status a hostile act.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.5% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.5% on Wednesday.Looking ahead highlights include EU Inflation Final (Aug), US Initial Jobless Claims (Sep/12), Housing Starts (Aug), Building Permits Prelim. (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), New Zealand Trade Balance (Aug). BoE Policy Announcement, CNB Policy Announcement. Comments from ECB's Lane. Supply from Spain, France & the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Iranian FM Araghchi said the MoU with the US is in effect and that Tehran wants to return to a peaceful solution, and added that Iran is not interested in continuing the conflict and looks forward to returning to a diplomatic solution.US equity futures gain, with the NQ outperforming following reports of a potential Intel-SK Hynix deal.DXY flat; GBP saw two-way price action as headline CPI returns above 3%.Fixed income benchmarks mixed; USTs await the FOMC policy announcement.Energy pares back the recent upside, helped by the constructive commentary from Iran.Looking ahead, highlights include US Retail Sales (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), New Zealand GDP (Q2), Fed Policy Announcement, BCB Policy Announcement, BoC Minutes. Speakers include ECB's Vujcic, Elderson & Nagel, Fed Chair Warsh.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US VP Vance told the NY Post that the conflict with Iran is expected to shift into a "much different phase" in the coming months.A US official said the military and Gulf countries have begun conducting daytime tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz, rather than only at night as in recent months, according to Axios.Crude futures pulled back after rallying again yesterday as a series of geopolitical and supply headlines lifted the benchmarks.APAC stocks were mixed in choppy trade, albeit with sentiment gradually improving; European equity futures indicate a modestly positive cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Inflation (Aug), Italian Inflation Final (Aug), ECB Wage Tracker (Aug), US Retail Sales (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), New Zealand GDP (Q2), Fed Policy Announcement, BCB Policy Announcement, BoC Minutes. Speakers include ECB's Vujcic, Elderson & Nagel, Fed Chair Warsh. Supply from Germany.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said Iranian forces have full control of the Strait of Hormuz and will prevent enemy vessels from crossing.The Bank of England has reportedly written plans with the DMO to overhaul its money-printing programme, with plans to stop selling 20- and 30-year gilts, according to the Telegraph.Global equities continue to be weighed on by higher energy prices and bond yields.DXY edges higher; GBP unreactive following a mixed jobs report.Fixed income benchmarks fall, with USTs underperforming; Gilts little moved amid the Telegraph report.Energy benchmarks remain at elevated levels as Houthis continue to strike Saudi military sites.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly. Speakers include ECB's Cipollone and US Treasury Secretary Bessent. Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Crude futures remained firmer amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East as Yemeni Houthis continued to target areas in Saudi Arabia, while Iran reiterated an unwillingness to negotiate an agreement with the US.IRGC Navy said the Strait of Hormuz is closed and remains under its control, according to Tasnim.APAC stocks traded mostly lower following the recent tech selling that was triggered by calls from industry CEOs for a slowdown in AI development; European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open.10yr UST futures declined amid gains in oil prices and after the US 10yr yield hit 5% for the first time since 2023; DXY edged higher in APAC trade.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Jobs/Wages (Jul), French/Spanish Inflation Final (Aug), German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Sep), and US ADP Employment Change Weekly. Speakers include ECB's Cipollone. Supply from the UK, Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said that Saudi Arabia insisted that the meeting between Iran and Gulf nations in Oman not to take place and it will be postponed to another date due to the Yemen situation.US President Trump said he warned Ukraine to stop targeting Russian oil refineries, as strikes have shut down diesel refining and helped lift prices of the fuel to record levels.Anthropic CEO Amodei urged a slowdown in the development of the most advanced AI systems to prevent AI from slipping beyond human control.US equity futures fall, Semis hit the hardest on worries of less capex investment.DXY firms on Fed rate hike bets and higher energy prices; JPY underperforms.Fixed income benchmarks mixed despite higher energy prices (Brent +2.7%).Looking ahead, highlights include the Canadian CPI (Aug). Speakers include ECB's Cipollone & Lagarde.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Yemeni Houthis confirm that they hit a Saudi Aramco oil refinery and targeted an air base in retaliation for recent Saudi strikes.Canada's retaliatory tariffs on US goods took effect as scheduled, while US President Trump called for a halt to US sales of Bombardier aircraft.US equity futures trade lower as participants return from holiday; Novartis suffers after key drug misses primary endpoints.USD helped by higher energy prices; JPY continues to firm, helped by strong growth and wage data.Fixed income benchmarks fall, with Gilts underperforming as Amazon (AMZN) files for GBP-denominated debt.Crude complex rises following the Saudi and Yemeni Houthi update.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly. Speakers include ECB's Elderson, BoE's Bailey, Ramsden, Greene & Taylor. Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Iran warned that economic warfare will be met with a maritime exclusion zone from the Persian Gulf to the blockade perimeter, and said it has the ability to strike ships participating in the US blockade.Yemeni forces reportedly launched ballistic missile and drone attacks on targets in Saudi Arabia, including around Khamis Mushait, Abha airport and King Khalid Airbase.Canada's retaliatory tariffs on US goods took effect as scheduled, while US President Trump called for a halt to US sales of Bombardier aircraft.USD/JPY extended declines and briefly dipped beneath the 153.00 level as the yen continues to strengthen amid BoJ rate hike expectations; Japanese GDP was revised higher and wage growth beat expectations. APAC stocks traded mixed in the absence of a lead from Wall Street; European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include German Trade Balance (Jul), US ADP Employment Change Weekly. Speakers include ECB's Elderson, BoE's Bailey, Ramsden, Greene & Taylor. Supply from the Netherlands, Germany & the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US launched strikes against three Iranian crude oil tankers on Saturday, which destroyed one. A move in retaliation for the IRGC targeting US Navy warships with ballistic missiles. Iran's navy also targeted three oil tankers that were travelling through unauthorised routes in the Strait of Hormuz.Iran's top security official Rezaei said Iran and Oman will sign agreed Strait of Hormuz passage maps in the coming days.APAC stocks traded mixed; European equity futures are indicative of a slightly weaker open.DXY trades lacklustre in holiday-thinned conditions; G10s are steady against the USD.Crude benchmarks are firmer this morning following US-Iran tit-for-tat strikes. Elsewhere, major OPEC+ countries stuck with the plan to keep oil output quotas unchanged for October.Looking ahead, highlights include, German Industrial Production (Jul), Swedish CPI (Aug), EZ GDP (Q2), EZ Employment Change (Q2).Holiday: Labor Day in the US and Canada.Desk Schedule: Desk will be open as usual on Sunday, 6th September until 18:00BST/13:00EDT on Monday, 7th September, due to the US market closure. Thereafter, the desk will resume normal service from 22:00BST/17:00EDT.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Norway's sovereign wealth fund sent a letter to the finance ministry recommending the reduction of holdings of US Treasuries from 70% to 50%, according to FT.US equity futures mixed; Volkswagen benefits after the approval of cost-cutting plan.USD slightly firmer heading into the jobs report; JPY gives back some of Thursday's gains.Fixed income benchmarks muted; USTs unfazed following the FT report that Norway may reduce holdings.Energy benchmarks softer amid light geopolitical updates.Looking ahead, highlights include US Jobs Report (Aug), Canadian Jobs Report (Aug).Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Crude futures kept afloat but with gains limited following the previous day's two-way trade and with a lack of major new geopolitical developments.USD/JPY recouped some losses after sliding as the yen recently outperformed due to intervention risks and hawkish BoJ rate hike bets.Norway's USD 2.3tln sovereign wealth fund manager has proposed an overhaul of its government bond portfolio that could see it cut its holdings of US Treasuries by about USD 80bln, as it looks to other types of debts to try to boost returns, according to FT.APAC stocks took impetus from the positive global risk sentiment and lower yield environment; European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include German Factory Orders (Jul), EZ Retail Sales (Jul), US Jobs Report (Aug), Canadian Jobs Report (Aug). Speakers include BoE Governor Bailey & ECB's Lane.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said regarding Iran that the US is winning that one very big and controls the Hormuz Strait.Russian President Putin said that Russia and Ukraine should agree first and noted that there is an opportunity to reach a peace agreement.Global equities broadly firmer; Broadcom slips after Q4 revenue and margin outlooks missed estimates.DXY lower; JPY outperforms, CHF strengthens after hotter-than-expected inflation.Fixed income benchmarks steady; however, US 10yr holds above 4.75%.Energy benchmarks reverse earlier downside following constructive Putin comments.Looking ahead, highlights include US Trade Balance (Jul), Jobless Claims, S&P Services and Composite PMI Final (Aug), ISM Services PMI (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), Canadian Trade Balance (Jul). Speakers include Fed's Waller, Hammack & Goolsbee.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said the renewed campaign against Iran would not continue for too long and that oil prices would come down; Trump added the US was prepared to conduct another attack on Iran.US President Trump said he has very productive things to talk about with China President Xi, adding it "Will be very exciting and great".Crude futures lacked firm direction after marginally gaining in two-way trade yesterday amid somewhat mixed comments from US President Trump.USD/JPY extended on the prior day's decline with the pair breaching the 158.00 level to the downside after the Japanese currency was supported on Wednesday.APAC stocks eventually traded mixed after initially posting gains; European equity futures indicate a marginally negative open.Looking ahead highlights include Swiss CPI (Aug), GDP (Aug), Global S&P Services and Composite PMI Final (Aug), EU PPI (Jul), US Challenger Layoffs (Aug), Trade Balance (Jul), Jobless Claims, ISM Services PMI (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), Canadian Trade Balance (Jul). Speakers include Fed's Waller, Hammack & Goolsbee, RBA's Jones & Hunter. Supply from Spain & France.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US Central Command said forces successfully completed a wave of strikes against Iranian military targets on September 1st.IRGC said it targeted US bases in Iraq, with missiles and drones. Iran's army also launched drone attacks on the US base in Bahrain while the IRGC added that two tankers were blown up after striking mines in the Strait.Global equities continue to pull back, with NQ futures falling below 29k.USD firms against most peers; NZD underperforms after RBNZ fails to impress hawks, JPY outperforms after BoJ hawk Takata.USTs are flat, whilst Bunds and Gilts are pressured by elevated gas prices.Crude takes a breather following another night of US-Iran hostilities; metals feel no reprieve.Looking ahead, highlights include US Factory Orders (Jul), ADP Employment Change (Aug), New Zealand Terms of Trade (Q2), BoC Announcement, Fed Beige Book. Comments from Fed's Williams, BoC's Macklem & Rogers. Earnings from Broadcom, Hewlett Packard Enterprise & Snowflake.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US Central Command said forces successfully completed a wave of strikes against Iranian military targets on September 1st.IRGC said it targeted US bases in Iraq, with missiles and drones. Iran's army also launched drone attacks on the US base in Bahrain, while Kuwaiti air defences confronted attacks by hostile drones.Crude futures continued to rally after surging by at least 5% yesterday as the US and Iran exchanged a fresh wave of strikes.NZD/USD underperformed after the RBNZ hiked the OCR by 25bps to 2.75%, which was widely expected, although the central bank refrained from any major hawkish surprises.APAC stocks were pressured as the risk-off mood persisted following a surge in oil prices and upside in yields; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include US Factory Orders (Jul), ADP Employment Change (Aug), New Zealand Terms of Trade (Q2), BoC Announcement, Fed Beige Book. Comments from ECB's Nagel, BoC's Macklem & Roger. Earnings from Broadcom, Hewlett Packard Enterprise & Snowflake.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US Treasury Secretary Bessent told Japanese officials that rate hikes are needed, according to NHK; a Japanese MoF official expects the BoJ to act on the economy and not on US influence.European and US equity futures are pressured by elevated yields; US 10yr (4.78%) holds at highs, whilst the UK 10yr (5.25%) resides at levels not seen since the GFC.USD firmer against all G10 currencies with yields rallying on continued energy upside.Crude futures continue recent strength; UKMTO received a report of an incident involving a tanker and military forces in the Indian Ocean off Oman. Marisks reported that two oil supertankers were hit by projectiles.Looking ahead, highlights include US S&P Manufacturing PMI Final (Aug), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug), JOLTS Job Openings (Jul), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), US Midterm Primary Elections in Massachusetts, Speakers include Fed's Barr & ECB's Vujcic. Earnings from Dell & Palo Alto.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US Treasury Secretary Bessent told Japanese officials that rate hikes are needed, according to NHK; a Japanese MoF official expects the BoJ to act on the economy and not on US influence.Nikkei 225 traded indecisively; USD/JPY traded rangebound, and 10yr JGB futures followed the declines in global peers.Crude futures remained underpinned after gaining yesterday; UKMTO received a report of an incident involving a tanker and military forces in the Indian Ocean off Oman.APAC stocks traded with a mild negative bias amid higher prices and yields; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include German Retail Sales (Jul), Global S&P Manufacturing PMI Final (Aug), EZ CPI Prelim (Aug), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug), JOLTS Job Openings (Jul), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), US Midterm Primary Elections in Massachusetts, Speakers include Fed's Barr & ECB's Vujcic. Supply from Germany. Earnings from Dell & Palo Alto.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The US attacked two missile launchers of the IRGC on Larak Island on Sunday, which were said to be on standby to launch missiles with sea mines toward the Strait of Hormuz.Iran's Revolutionary Guards later announced that they retaliated with missiles and drones against two US bases in Jordan and warned that any attack against them will be met with a more devastating response.US equity futures trade muted, with focus on the jobs report on Friday.DXY is weaker against all G10 peers heading into month-end.Fixed income benchmarks are contained on the UK Bank Holiday.Energy benchmarks gapped higher as the US and Iran exchange strikes.Looking ahead, highlights include German Inflation Flash (Aug) and Supply from the EU.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US attacked two missile launchers of the IRGC on Larak Island on Sunday, which were said to be on standby to launch missiles with sea mines toward the Strait of Hormuz.Iran's Revolutionary Guards later announced that they retaliated with missiles and drones against two US bases in Jordan and warned that any attack against them will be met with a more devastating response.Crude futures gapped higher at the open amid the geopolitical escalation in the Middle East; FX and Fixed Income did not react to the rise in oil.APAC stocks were mostly lower heading into month-end; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include German Inflation Flash (Aug). Supply from the EU; UK Summer Bank Holiday (desk remains open as usual).Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Two regional sources told Axios that in recent days Iran has shown renewed interest in negotiationsUS equity futures trade mixed as Nvidia pulls back from its record-setting day.DXY rangebound; G10s lack direction ahead of Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole address.Fixed income benchmarks await a busy speaker slate; OATs steady after the presidential debate.Energy benchmarks subdued amid a lack of escalation.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian GDP (Jul), US Non-Farm Payrolls Annual Revision Prelim, Fed Jackson Hole Symposium (27th-29th). Speakers include Fed Chair Warsh, Hammack, Goolsbee, BoE's Bailey, Mann, ECB's Schnabel and Kocher. Credit Ratings including Fitch on France, Moody's on Switzerland, S&P on Portugal, and Morningstar DBRS on the Netherlands.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump's administration has repeatedly told mediators it has no interest in going back to the terms of the MoU it reached with Iran in June, WSJ sources said.Any agreements concluded between Iran and Oman are of no importance to the US, and there are no ongoing or scheduled negotiations with Iran, according to a US source cited by Al Jazeera.Chinese executives may join Chinese President Xi's US trip, as a trade truce extension is almost certain, according to SCMP.APAC stocks were mostly positive but with gains capped following the varied performance stateside; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include French/Spanish Prelim CPI (Aug), German Unemployment Rate (Aug), Canadian GDP (Jul), US Non-Farm Payrolls Annual Revision Prelim, Fed Jackson Hole Symposium (27th-29th). Speakers include Fed Chair Warsh and ECB's Schnabel. Supply from Italy. Credit Ratings including Fitch on France, Moody's on Switzerland, S&P on Portugal, and Morningstar DBRS on the Netherlands.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US White House is reportedly considering a new round of tariffs on chips, Politico reports citing sources.Nvidia (NVDA) shares rise by over 7% pre-market after beating on top and bottom lines, whilst the CEO said they are seeing demand acceleration and expect revenues to grow about 70% in fiscal 2028.US equity futures firmer across the board, helped by positive Nvidia and Salesforce earnings.DXY modestly higher; JPY little moved following hawkish BoJ Himino comments.Fixed income benchmarks tentative heading into the Fed Jackson Hole Symposium.Energy benchmarks pare earlier losses following firm rhetoric from Russian officials and Iranian sources.Looking ahead, highlights include US Jobless Claims (Aug/22). Fed Jackson Hole Symposium (27th-29th), ECB Minutes (Jul). Speakers include Fed's Hammack, Schmid, Supply from the US & Earnings from Marvell.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

NVIDIA (NVDA) shares rose almost 5% after beating on top and bottom lines, whilst the CEO said they are seeing demand acceleration and expect revenues to grow about 70% in fiscal 2028.Crude futures mildly declined following recent indecisive performance amid mixed geopolitical updates.Oman reportedly stopped cooperating with the US to facilitate escorted tanker movements through southern Hormuz, according to Press TV.APAC stocks were ultimately mixed, but with most indices in the green, after the flat performance stateside, whilst US equity futures were lifted on NVDA.European equity futures indicate a higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.4%.Looking ahead, highlights include German GfK Consumer Confidence (Sep), US Jobless Claims (Aug/22). Fed Jackson Hole Symposium (27th-29th), ECB Minutes (Jul). Supply from the US, Earnings from Marvell & Pernod Ricard.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi details a temporary arrangement between Iran and Oman concerning the Strait of Hormuz while asserting that reopening of the waterway hinges on the realisation of Tehran's demands, according to Press TV.European bourses are mildly firmer; Intuit -11% after disappointing guidance.USD firms against most G10s, particularly vs. high beta, though AUD and JPY lead after data.Fixed benchmarks are mixed with USTs off by a couple of ticks, whilst Bunds and Gilts move higher.Crude futures continue to soften amid positive, unconfirmed US-Iran reports.Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods (Jul), PCE (Jul), GDP 2nd Estimate (Q2), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3). Supply from the US. Earnings from NVIDIA, Salesforce & CrowdStrike.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Crude futures extended their declines after falling around 5% yesterday as geopolitical developments appeared more constructive.Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister said US minesweepers are very good targets if they enter the region.APAC stocks were mostly in the green following the gains on Wall Street, where sentiment was underpinned amid Strait of Hormuz optimism, lower oil prices and a drop in yields.US equity futures were indecisive following recent gains and as participants brace for NVIDIA earnings; European equity futures indicate a mildly positive open.AUD/USD outperformance was seen following firmer-than-expected monthly inflation data, which remained above the RBA's 2%-3% price target.Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods (Jul), PCE (Jul), GDP 2nd (Q2), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3). Comments from ECB's Cipollone. Supply from Germany, Italy and the US. Earnings from NVIDIA, Salesforce & CrowdStrike.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Pakistani Army Chief Munir conveyed an offer to Iran, from the US, to halt the naval blockade in exchange for opening the Strait, Al Arabiya reports, citing sources. Brent Nov'26 -2.5%.Pakistan reported "significant progress" was made in high-level diplomatic talks held in Tehran.European bourses modestly gain, with strength also seen across US peers; NQ +0.6%.DXY is flat, trading around the 99.00 mark; G10s are mixed.Fixed income benchmarks are firmer, benefiting from lower energy prices; Bunds were mildly pressured on Ifo.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly, House Price Index (Jun), US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug). Fed Discount Rate Minutes (Aug)., Supply from the US. Earnings from Intuit.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US Treasury sanctioned nearly 60 Iran-linked entities, people and vessels across nuclear, missile, cyber and oil networks.US President Trump is making calls to world leaders to cut economic ties with Iran and that the US expects actions from other nations and, if others do not act, the Treasury will unilaterally act.US Treasury Secretary Bessent said there will be a wave of sanctions after this, with a major financial institution expected to be sanctioned by the end of the week.Iran's Economy Minister said the country is fully prepared for the US sanctions and that they cannot cut off Iran's financial arteries.US is said to eye 7.5% China overcapacity tariffs before the Trump-Xi talks, according to multiple reports.APAC stocks were mixed following the subdued lead from Wall Street; European equity futures indicate a marginally positive cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include German GDP Final (Q2), Ifo Expectations (Aug), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, House Price Index (Jun), US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug). Riksbank Minutes (Aug), Fed Discount Rate Minutes (Aug)., Supply from UK, Germany and US. Earnings from Intuit.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US Treasury Secretary Bessent wrote in the FT that economic D-Day is coming for Iran, and countries that calculate appeasement of the regime to be a safer choice should reconsider.Iran warned, "If the economic war continues, not a single drop of oil will be exported٫ neither through the Strait of Hormuz nor from anywhere in the Persian Gulf.”Crude is subdued amid a lack of major weekend escalations, eyes on Bessent's presser, who is set to unveil Iran sanctions.European bourses trade tentatively; US equity futures are indicative of a weaker open, with underperformance in the NQ.DXY is firmer, holding around the 99.00 mark; CAD underperforms as trade talks with the US collapsed on Friday.Looking ahead, highlights include Mexican Inflation (Aug), US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jul), and comments from US Treasury Secretary Bessent. Earnings from Xpeng & PDD.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US Treasury Secretary Bessent wrote in the FT that economic D-Day is coming for Iran, and countries that calculate appeasement of the regime to be a safer choice should reconsider.Iran warned, "If the economic war continues, not a single drop of oil will be exported٫ neither through the Strait of Hormuz nor from anywhere in the Persian Gulf.”Trade discussions between the US and Canada collapsed on Friday; Canadian PM Carney vowed to retaliate by matching tariffs dollar-for-dollar on US goods from September 8th.Crude futures pulled back after last week's advances, and with the absence of any major geopolitical developments over the weekend.APAC stocks traded mixed, albeit with a mostly negative bias; European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include Mexican Inflation (Aug), US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jul), and comments from US Treasury Secretary Bessent. Earnings from Xpeng & PDD.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US equity futures rebound heading into the final trading session of the week.DXY returns to Thursday's low; Antipodeans outperform, EUR and GBP muted following broadly strong PMIs.US 30yr yield slips below 5.25%, lifting Spot Gold and Bitcoin to key levels.Energy benchmarks lower amid light geopolitical newsflow.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales (Jun), US S&P Flash PMIs (Aug), EU Consumer Confidence Flash (Aug), BoC SLOS (Q2). Credit rating updates from Fitch on Poland, Moody's on the Netherlands and Sweden.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed as the region attempted to shrug off the broadly negative handover from Wall Street; European equity futures indicate an uneventful open.In FX, DXY marginally softened, and USD/JPY was choppy overnight following the mostly in-line Japanese inflation data for July.10yr UST futures lingered around the prior day's trough, Bund futures mildly retreated, and 10yr JGB futures tracked previous declines in global peers.Crude futures were contained overnight amid a lack of major fresh developments; spot gold resumed its recent choppy performance above the USD 4,500/oz level.Looking ahead, highlights include Global S&P Flash PMIs (Aug), UK Retail Sales (Jul), PSNB (Jul), EU Negotiated Wage Growth (Q2), Canadian Retail Sales (Jun), EU Consumer Confidence Flash (Aug), BoC SLOS (Q2). Credit rating updates from Fitch on Poland, Moody's on the Netherlands and Sweden.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump announced sweeping economic measures against Iran and threatened consequences for countries or entities supporting Tehran.US President Trump reportedly told his negotiating team that the chances of an agreement with Iran have become slim, according to Al Arabiya, citing sources.US equity futures are muted; focus to be on Walmart earnings.DXY extends on Wednesday's losses; NZD outperforms while AUD completely pares the employment report weakness.USTs give back some of the gains driven by the US Treasury announcement.Energy benchmarks higher despite contained APAC trade following Trump's economic update (Brent +2.5%).Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian PPI (Jul), US Initial Jobless Claims (Aug 15), New Zealand Trade Data (Jul). Comments from Fed's Daly and US President Trump. Earnings from Walmart.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk