Podcast appearances and mentions of erik townsend

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr. Anas Alhajji to the show to discuss OPEC+ production increase & market reactions, Trump's visit and oil politics, and the long-term outlook for oil and LNG  & much more. https://bit.ly/43ldvBg What Do Saudi Arabia & Allies in OPEC+ Want from Accelerating the Unwinding of Voluntary Cuts? - Anas Alhajji   

MacroVoices hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome, Copenhagen Atomics Founder, Thomas Jam Pedersen. This episode is the first of two special holiday editions featuring extended double-length interviews. In this in-depth discussion, we explore Advanced Nuclear Energy Technologies and their critical role in driving the emerging Nuclear Renaissance. https://bit.ly/3ZKN9FI   ⚫ Check out Copenhagen Atomics: https://www.copenhagenatomics.com/   ✅Sign up for a FREE 14-day trial at Big Picture Trading: https://bit.ly/4cMmu0d  

MacroVoices hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome, Robert Kahn. They'll dive into four key geopolitical issues currently shaping the global investment landscape: Trump 2.0, China, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the Israel-Gaza-Iran nexus. Robert will share expert insights on how these major events are influencing financial markets and what investors should watch for in the months ahead. https://bit.ly/3DxYd1s   ⚫ Check out Eurasia Group: https://www.eurasiagroup.net/

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jim Bianco to MacroVoices. Erik and Jim discuss: • Interest, Inflation Rates & Bond Yields • Fed Rate Hikes and The Economy's Strength • Economic Crisis & Budget Deficits • Oil Demand & Supply, With Focus on China • Gold Prices & Asian Markets • US Election & The Stock Market

MacroVoices hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Thomas Jam Pedersen, founder of Copenhagen Atomics. They will discuss the role thorium fission will play in the energy transition and the benefits of molten salt-cooled and liquid-fuelled thorium-burning nuclear reactors over conventional light water reactors fuelled by uranium. https://bit.ly/3QzHtuu   ⚫ Find out More: https://www.copenhagenatomics.com/   ✅Sign up for a FREE 14-day trial at Big Picture Trading: https://bit.ly/46Ul2FD  

MacroVoice's Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome Mark Nelson as the special holiday guest for the New Year. Erik and Mark will delve into the intricate world of nuclear reactors, exploring potential fuels like Thorium, and shedding light on the contemporary challenges entwined with nuclear regulations. https://bit.ly/3H52Kan   Follow Mark Nelson on X: https://twitter.com/energybants Check Out: https://www.radiantenergygroup.com/   Check out Energy Transition Crisis on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EnergyTransitionCrisis1 Nuclear SMRs VS Renewables: https://energytransitioncrisis.org/smr Download This Episode's Chartbook:

MacroVoice's Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome back Lyn Alden as this years special holiday guest. Erik & Lyn will discuss the alternative energy sources needed for energy transition, including Nuclear, Hydro, Wind and Solar and some of the complications that may arise with each. https://bit.ly/3RAdIJW   Check out Energy Transition Crisis on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EnergyTransitionCrisis1 Nuclear SMRs VS Renewables: https://energytransitioncrisis.org/smr Download Lyn Alden's: Broken Energy Chart Book

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jim Bianco to MacroVoices. Erik and Jim discuss: • FED's Inconsistencies • FED Politics and Election-Year Pressure • US Economy, Inflation, and Interest Rates • FED's Future Rate Cuts • Interest Rate Impacts on The General Population • Yield Curve Inversion and Its Implications • Potential Impact of Bitcoin ETF Approval • Government Regulation of Cryptocurrency

MacroVoice's Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome back Jim Bianco. Erik & Jim will discuss the FOMC's about face on monetary policy, why it happened, and what comes next. Jim says peak yields are NOT yet behind us... https://bit.ly/3RQyciC   Check out Energy Transition Crisis on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EnergyTransitionCrisis1 Download Big Picture Trading Chartbook

Good news! Erik Townsend explains that the energy we get from fossil fuels can be completely delivered by small modular nuclear reactors, for about the cost of all the green energy projects to date. But will we? Can we rally in time to get this vital project for humanity done before energy scarcity makes it all but impossible? Our prosperity hangs in the balance.Click Here for Part 2

Macrovoice's Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome Freelancer Founder, Matt Barrie. Erik and Matt have an interesting discussion about the potential human prosperity and existential threat, AI may give us in a future not too far away. https://bit.ly/476Sauc   Read Matt's ‘AI-pocalypse' Article Here: https://bit.ly/3RIfJor   Check out Energy Transition Crisis on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EnergyTransitionCrisis1 Download Big Picture Trading Chartbook

MacroVoice's Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome, Clocktower Group Chief Strategist, Marko Papic. Erik and Marko will discuss all of the geopolitical developments around the globe and their impact on financial markets. https://bit.ly/3NiHzoR   ✅SPECIAL WEBINAR  "Discover Your New Favourite Hedging Strategy" Monday, December 11th, 1pm ET Register For FREE!: https://www.bigpicturetrading.com   Check out Energy Transition Crisis on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EnergyTransitionCrisis1 Download Big Picture Trading Chartbook

Erik Townsend of MacroVoices lays out the case for an energy revolution NOW. For more information, visit simplify.us. Simplify Asset Management Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Simplify Asset Management Inc. and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission, nor does it indicate that the advisor has attained a particular level of skill or ability. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy. This content is not intended to provide investment, tax, or legal advice. This content is solely for informational purposes and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. These materials are made available on an “as is” basis, without representation or warranty. The information contained in these materials has been obtained from sources that Simplify Asset Management Inc. believes to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. This information is only current as of the date indicated and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Neither the author nor Simplify Asset Management Inc. undertakes to advise you of any changes in the views expressed herein.

MacroVoice's Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome Ole S Hansen as this week's guest. Ole says the bull market has paused in some commodities, but is set to continue. They also talk about crude oil and the debate over how big the Iran escalation risk is in the Israel conflict. https://bit.ly/46HF07i Ole's Charts: https://bit.ly/3MdGBtm Check out Energy Transition Crisis on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EnergyTransitionCrisis1 Download Big Picture Trading Chartbook

Everyone, check out the documentary at energytransitioncrisis.orgCheck out my private, online investment community (Rebel Capitalist Pro) with Chris MacIntosh, Lyn Alden and many more for $1!! click here https://georgegammon.com/proRebel capitalist merchandise https://www.rebelcapitaliststore.com

Our September Sessions roll on this week with Erik Townsend, Host of Macro Voices. SmarterMarkets™ host David Greely sits down with Erik to discuss his new eight-part documentary series Energy Transition Crisis.

CPI Hot – PPI Hot – but markets shrug it off. ECB raised rates 0.25% in a semi-surprising move. Blackout period continues for the Fed ahead of next week's rate meeting – what a relief. And our guest this week – Eric Townsend, Host of the MacroVoices podcast Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager. Throughout his career, Erik has capitalized on his ability to understand complex systems and anticipate paradigm shifts far in advance of the mainstream. A teenage computer protégé, he spent most of his high school years at MIT's Artificial Intelligence laboratory, where he taught himself several computer programming languages. Erik became an independent software development and design consultant to Digital Corporation's manufacturing systems technology group at age 17. By age 20 he owned his first private aircraft, after earning his private and commercial pilot's licenses. From his experience at MIT, Erik recognized that the IT industry's failure to embrace distributed computing translated to an exceptional entrepreneurial opportunity. At age 21, Erik committed himself to developing and commercializing distributed application software technologies he was first exposed to at MIT in the late '70s. By the mid-1980s, Erik had invented an approach to distributed system design that is now widely known as Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA). After applying SOA concepts initially at Digital Equipment Corp (where he consulted for nearly 10 years), in 1992 Erik founded the Cushing Group, a boutique consultancy focused exclusively on bringing advanced distributed application computing technologies to market. The Cushing Group's work with Wells Fargo Bank in the early 1990s paved the way for Wells Fargo to become the world's first Internet Bank by early 1995. Erik has become a passionate world traveler. He moved to Hong Kong in 2009 to get a better perspective on changing global economics. While living in Hong Kong, several hedge fund professionals he met there observed that through his own passionate trading activities, Erik was “already doing all the work of running a hedge fund except for picking up the phone and calling a lawyer and turning it into a fund”. Erik was flattered by the advice of his peers in Hong Kong to launch his own hedge fund, but wanted to finish his boots-on-ground evaluation of the global economy first. He spent just over sixteen month in 2011 and 2012 exploring the world, living in 28 cities in 18 countries during that period. Erik continues to live a very international lifestyle, and presently has homes in Hong Kong, Mexico and the United States. Erik eventually took his Hong Kong friends' advice to heart, and founded Fourth Turning Capital Management, LLC in 2013. Through that asset management company, he launched a Global Macro-strategy hedge fund in July 2013. In February 2016, in a joint effort with Nathan Egger, Erik launched Macro Voices, a new weekly financial podcast program which will target professional finance, high net worth, and other “sophisticated” investors who desire financial content at a level of sophistication and complexity above what the retail investment-focused podcasts on the Internet presently offer. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/   Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (Oil), (SPY), (QQQ), (RWN), (URA), (URNM)

In this summer special episode, Erik Townsend welcomes Freelancer.com CEO Matt Barrie to the show for an extra long interview to discuss the macro impacts and knock-on effects of Artificial Intelligence. Market wrap and postgame segment will resume next week. https://bit.ly/3OMuWlW AI know what you did last summer. - Matt Barrie   Please visit our website https://www.macrovoices.com to register your free account to gain access to supporting materials

#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #jobs #employment #unemployment #supplyshockPeople hate the word "transitory" because they naturally believe a couple years wouldn't qualify under it. Yet, supply shocks historically take that much time and the current one we are experiencing is following that pattern very closely. What matters now, however, is what comes next. The data not only confirms the supply shock, it also holds a serious warning as to that next step.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisJeff's Interview w/Erik Townsend on MacroVoiceshttps://youtu.be/Zr578T08l7chttps://t.co/ZGaW1CSQ0MTime: Ketchup Shortagehttps://time.com/6072227/miguel-patricio-ceo-kraft-heinz-ketchup-shortage/Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityhttps://www.marketsinsiderpro.comhttps://www.PortfolioShield.netRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7Epoch Times Columns: https://bit.ly/39ESkRfTHE EPISODESYouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLVurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MReason: https://bit.ly/3lt5NiHSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39XjrPodcastRepublic:https://bit.ly/3LH8JlVDISCLOSURESJeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Variant Perception CEO Tian Yang to the show to discuss the long-awaited U.S. recession, and the final flush in U.S. equity markets, which Tian says is still to come. Tian will also share a non-concensus view on Gold and much more. https://bit.ly/424aoKl Download Tian's charts here: https://bit.ly/3Oo0AaO Download Big Picture Trading chartbook

Sneak preview of Erik Townsend's upcoming docuseries about the coming global energy crisis.   This is a new version of this episode re-written based on listener feedback.   3rd of 5 special episodes. Download associated .PDF https://bit.ly/3IgepVg   #OOTT

Sneak preview of Erik Townsend's upcoming docuseries about the coming global energy crisis.   This is a new version of this episode re-written based on listener feedback.   2nd of 5 special episodes. Download associated .PDF https://bit.ly/3IgepVg   #OOTT

Sneak preview of Erik Townsend's upcoming docuseries about the coming global energy crisis.   This is a new version of this episode re-written based on listener feedback.   1st of 5 special episodes. Download associated .PDF https://bit.ly/3IgepVg   #OOTT

Sneak preview of Erik Townsend's upcoming docuseries about the coming global energy crisis. Why it can't be avoided, what caused it, and what it will take to solve it. Last of 5 special episodes airing Sundays. Download associated PDF https://bit.ly/3jx8zFm   #OOTT

Lousy earnings, stocks go higher. Fed stays somewhat hawkish, stocks go higher. Blowout jobs report, stocks go higher. Short squeeze games anyone? This week's guest - Erik Townsend with MacroVoices Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager. Throughout his career, Erik has capitalized on his ability to understand complex systems and anticipate paradigm shifts far in advance of the mainstream. A teenage computer protégé, he spent most of his high school years at MIT's Artificial Intelligence laboratory, where he taught himself several computer programming languages. Erik became an independent software development and design consultant to Digital Corporation's manufacturing systems technology group at age 17. By age 20 he owned his first private aircraft, after earning his private and commercial pilot's licenses. From his experience at MIT, Erik recognized that the IT industry's failure to embrace distributed computing translated to an exceptional entrepreneurial opportunity. At age 21, Erik committed himself to developing and commercializing distributed application software technologies he was first exposed to at MIT in the late '70s. By the mid-1980s, Erik had invented an approach to distributed system design that is now widely known as Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA). After applying SOA concepts initially at Digital Equipment Corp (where he consulted for nearly 10 years), in 1992 Erik founded the Cushing Group, a boutique consultancy focused exclusively on bringing advanced distributed application computing technologies to market. The Cushing Group's work with Wells Fargo Bank in the early 1990s paved the way for Wells Fargo to become the world's first Internet Bank by early 1995. Erik has become a passionate world traveler. He moved to Hong Kong in 2009 to get a better perspective on changing global economics. While living in Hong Kong, several hedge fund professionals he met there observed that through his own passionate trading activities, Erik was “already doing all the work of running a hedge fund except for picking up the phone and calling a lawyer and turning it into a fund”. Erik was flattered by the advice of his peers in Hong Kong to launch his own hedge fund, but wanted to finish his boots-on-ground evaluation of the global economy first. He spent just over sixteen month in 2011 and 2012 exploring the world, living in 28 cities in 18 countries during that period. Erik continues to live a very international lifestyle, and presently has homes in Hong Kong, Mexico and the United States. Erik eventually took his Hong Kong friends' advice to heart, and founded Fourth Turning Capital Management, LLC in 2013. Through that asset management company, he launched a Global Macro-strategy hedge fund in July 2013. In February 2016, in a joint effort with Nathan Egger, Erik launched Macro Voices, a new weekly financial podcast program which will target professional finance, high net worth, and other “sophisticated” investors who desire financial content at a level of sophistication and complexity above what the retail investment-focused podcasts on the Internet presently offer. Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (AAPL), (AMZN), (META), (MSFT)

Sneak preview of Erik Townsend's upcoming docuseries about the coming global energy crisis.   Why it can't be avoided, what caused it, and what it will take to solve it.   3rd of 5 special episodes airing Sundays in January. Download associated .PDF  here: https://bit.ly/3ZQ1kIR #OOTT

Sneak preview of Erik Townsend's upcoming docuseries about the coming global energy crisis. Why it can't be avoided, what caused it, and what it will take to solve it. 2nd of 5 special episodes airing Sundays in January. Download associated .PDF  here: https://bit.ly/3H5iY40 #OOTT

Sneak preview of Erik Townsend's upcoming docuseries about the coming global energy crisis. Why it can't be avoided, what caused it, and what it will take to solve it. 1st of 5 special episodes airing Sundays in January. https://bit.ly/3GOtE72 #OOTT  Download PDF here: https://bit.ly/3Qlw40b

In this special edition of the Leaked Lunch podcast series we substitute a face-to-face lunch for a cross-continent Zoom call with Erik Townsend, the host of the Macro Voices financial podcast. Erik joins us to discuss the important topic of media trustworthiness and how independent voices like his can bring balance back to publishing. We dicuss the media's treatment of the Wuhan lab leak theory, the pluses and minuses of independent media and whether censorship can ever be justified. The conversation was recorded on Tuesday, November 22, 2022.

This week the European energy crisis took center stage on Finance Twitter. Is this right and truly checkmate for Europe? With Vladimir Putin throttling natural gas, and no longer under the pretense of scheduled maintenance, what does the winter hold for, say, German Industry?  The Germans might have enough in storage to weather the cold, but what will prices look like for European citizens and businesses?All of this has led to massively negative sentiment. Erik Townsend of Macro Voices ended his podcast this week with a prediction that the world might be ending. Well, at the very least he said the Halcyon days of cheap energy and easy living for the West are done and that World War III is at hand. Which was also his way of saying that commodities will become exorbitantly expensive over the next decade. Back in North America, we revisit the topic of Fed Policy. Sure enough, inflation and unemployment are the watchwords. But what about credit market liquidity? If that seizes up, they might be forced to waffle earlier than inflation would otherwise allow. So we turn to credit spreads. 

India Policy Watch #1: To Catch A Falling Rupee Insights on burning policy issues in India— RSJThe Indian rupee this week declined to an all-time low as it went beyond 80 per dollar. For reasons that aren’t always clear to me, this kind of thing makes a lot of news in India. I mean, it was 79.9 the week before. There isn’t a yawning gap between that and 80. Yet opinion pieces are written, cartoons sketched, and old tweets of macroeconomic theorists like Akshay Kumar, Juhi Chawla and Sri Sri (Sri?) Ravishankar are dug out to contrast their current reactions to this phenomenon with their past asides. The WhatsApp factory also rolls out their new models that suggest how a strong dollar is bad for the US economy and how this is some kind of a switch and bait move that we are making on them. Somewhere in many of our heads, the strength of the Indian rupee is no longer subject to the dynamics of the currency market. Like many things these days, it too is anchored to our self-respect. And since our national clarion call is desh nahin jhukne doonga (won’t let the country down), we then start working on the narrative that shows all of this in a warm, positive glow. All in a day in the life of India.Anyway, I thought it would be useful to take this moment to appreciate the winds that are buffeting it, the long-term view of what will actually strengthen the rupee and then zoom out a bit to appreciate what’s happening to the US economy and what it could mean for India. The Safety Of Dollar We will start with why has the rupee gone to 80 a dollar? The simple answer is the US dollar has been more in demand since the start of the Ukraine war than before. This is true for all currencies, not just the rupee, as the chart below shows.There are reasons for this. The 40-year high inflation print that the US is witnessing month over month has turned the Fed hawkish. It is likely to raise rates by another 75 bps in its meeting next week, and the consensus suggests the benchmark rates will be around 3.4 per cent by the end of the year. These rate hikes make storing money in dollars more attractive. This potent cocktail of uncertainty around the Ukraine war, the high oil and commodity prices that make emerging markets more vulnerable and the prospect of a global recession is starting to give global fund managers a massive hangover. Their most obvious response: flight to the safety of the US dollar. The dollar demand has gone up as foreign portfolio investors have checked out of domestic equities across the world. In India, we have had over ₹2.3 trillion of outflow from the equity market so far this year. Things would have been worse had it not been for the domestic investors (mutual funds and insurers) who invested about ₹1.4 trillion during this period. The price of oil—averaging over US$ 120 or so during this year—has made things worse because we import over 90 per cent of our requirements. The across-the-board rise in commodity prices has further increased our import bill. Almost simultaneously, the high rate of inflation, the rise in interest rates and a prospect of a recession have meant our exports are beginning to soften. The commentary from our software services giants suggests the demand pipeline isn’t what it used to be. This might also show up in other export-dominated sectors as the steep rise in interest rates starts to kill off growth in developed markets. This has meant the consensus forecast among analysts for the current account deficit has inched up to 3 per cent for the year-end. We will need more dollars to support that kind of deficit. That apart, our own inflation numbers have remained high, and we are running a negative real interest rate (the difference between interest rate and rate of inflation). This will continue to support riskier assets and reward consumption that will feed back into inflation. So, expect further interest rate hikes, and that will impact growth. All of this indicates the dollar strengthening against the rupee is here to stay.Propping Up The RupeeWhat can be done to address this? This is market dynamics at play. There are too many interlinked factors here. Beyond a point, there are only tweaks that you can do in the short term to support the currency. The RBI has tried to ensure that the depreciation is orderly and gradual, which is the best it can do now. It has increased dollar inflows by loosening norms in multiple areas, helping curb volatility. The raft of measures taken here shows how many short term levers are available with a central bank to manage currency volatility. These included removing the interest rate restrictions on banks for foreign currency and non-resident deposits. Such deposits have also been exempted from the statutory liquidity requirements that Banks need to carry for their deposits. This has allowed banks to hike their savings rates for such deposits by almost 75 bps. This will attract dollar deposits from non-resident Indians. The RBI has also relaxed foreign investments in debt instruments and allowed the use of overseas foreign currency borrowing for lending domestically in foreign currency. Even the amount of external commercial borrowing businesses can do through the automatic route has been doubled to US$ 1.5 billion. These immediate measures will smoothen the flow and increase the supply of dollars. The idea here is to weather through the Fed interest rate hike storm for the next two quarters and then take stock. The RBI also made an interesting move last week that was reported as the ‘internationalisation’ of the rupee. It allowed special accounts (rupee Vostro accounts) to pay and settle exports and imports in rupees. Further, the surplus in these accounts could be invested in government T-bills and securities. What does this mean? Simply put, if Indian firms can find counterparties who are willing to trade with them in rupees, they can do so more easily than before. On the face of it, this means very little. Because there aren’t many global firms who would want to settle their trade in a currency like the rupee that will depreciate in the long-term and which isn’t useful for trade with non-Indian partners. But it allows us to trade with Russia without getting the dollar involved. In fact, it is both an economic move and a geopolitical one. We run a trade deficit with Russia. We can now pay for Russian oil in rupees. Russia can use those rupees to buy our exports. The surplus in these accounts can be used to buy government bonds. So we save on buying more dollars to settle this trade, and we create demand for government bonds because the surplus in this account will be invested there. Seems like a neat solution, and I guess the US and the west won’t mind because we have pointed out their hypocrisy on Russian gas and Saudi oil more than a few times now. Apart from this, the government has done its usual quota of excise duty tweaks to manage the situation. We have increased duties on the export of petroleum products and limited sugar and wheat exports. And we have cut import duties on key raw materials and on cooking oils to manage inflation. These won’t add to much, but it gives an impression that something’s been done to address inflation. When inflation stabilises, we will take ages to dismantle these duties. That is an old and different story. That takes care of the short term. In the long run, the rupee's strength depends on the fundamentals of our economy. We must run a current account shortfall below 2 per cent, bring down the fiscal deficit and debt to GDP ratio that have gone up significantly in the past two years and keep inflation in the four per cent range, which was the RBI mandate. All of this is hard work and will need the government to translate its words into action. Structural reforms in labour and capital have been pending for ages, the infrastructure push promised in the last budget is still in the works, and fiscal discipline is a tad out of fashion. If we continue to insist on pegging our self-respect to the rupee, then we must know what to demand from the government. Where Next?Lastly, where does the global economy go from here? Well, it is clear that the Fed and other central banks were wrong in their assessment in 2021 that the inflation was transitory. They could have raised rates then, and we wouldn’t have seen the serious inflationary pressure we have now seen for the last six months. This isn’t hindsight. There were more than a handful of sceptics about the notion of transitory inflation. So, the question is, now that the Fed has gone into the territory of whatever it takes to control inflation, what kind of a landing will we have? Will it be a short and mildly painful recession, or are we going to be in for a hard landing? As some are saying, it is possible that we will see the peak of inflation in the next few months, and then the rate hike impact will start to bring it down quickly to more comfortable levels within a year. We could then have a rate reversion cycle begin as early as the end of 2023. That is what the optimists are seeing today. However, it is possible that there’s a hard landing. That is not just inflation taking longer to tame, but the sustained high-interest environment kills growth and puts the financial system under enormous stress. There’s a possibility that a perfect storm of decline in investment, reduction in consumption and a recession could hurt incomes around the world. The pandemic saw a significant rise in debt levels for both firms and households. A scenario where interest rates stay high and incomes start coming under stress would spell bad news for the ability of these entities to service their debt. A cycle of default could then start and put the entire financial system under stress. We might not have a GFC (2008) like moment, but we could be in that vicinity in future. We have been so used to quantitative easing, low inflation and low-interest rate scenario in the last decade that it is difficult to envisage an alternative where things are radically different. Yet, as history has shown, you ignore long-tail risks at your own peril. As a parting shot, the then finance minister Manmohan Singh’s response in the Rajya Sabha addressing the fears of devaluation of the rupee needs a revisit:Let me say that in this country there seems to be a strange conspiracy between the extreme left and extreme right that there is something immoral or dishonourable about changing the exchange rate. But that is not the tradition. If you look at the whole history of India’s independence struggle before 1947 all our national leaders were fighting against the British against keeping the exchange rate of the Rupee unduly high. Why did the British keep the exchange rate of the Rupee unduly high? It was because they wanted this country to remain backward and they did not want this country to industrialise. They wanted the country to be an exporter of primary products against which all Indian economists protested. If you look at Indian history right from 1900 onwards to 1947, this was a recurrent plea of all Indian economists—not to have an exchange rate which is so high that Indian cannot export, that India cannot industrialise. But I am really surprised that something which is meant to increase the country’s exports and encourage its industrialisation is now considered as something anti-national.India Policy Watch #2: Q.E.D.Insights on burning policy issues in India— Pranay KotasthaneNowadays, it seems like just one government agency is burning the midnight oil: the Enforcement Directorate (ED). It’s never out of the headlines.There’s data to back this claim too. Responding to a Lok Sabha question earlier this year, the Minister of State (Finance) revealed that while during 2004-14, 112 searches were carried out by the ED, this number stands at 2974 in the eight years since 2014, a twenty-six-fold increase! Forget for a moment that the conviction rate of ED in raids conducted under the Foreign Exchange Management Act is merely 0.5 per cent.Whether it is political parties in the opposition, Chinese companies, fugitive economic offenders, or non-profits, the ED has become the de-facto brahmastra.Structurally, ED is a law enforcement body deriving powers from a wide range of laws. It was constituted as the “Enforcement Unit” way back in 1956. And since foreign exchange control was a big obsession back then, it primarily investigated cases arising from the Foreign Exchange Regulation Act (FERA), 1947. Then came the Foreign Exchange Management Act in 1999, the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA) in 2005, and the Fugitive Economic Offenders Act in 2018. A wide remit backed by labyrinthine economic laws made it easily weaponisable. Now, it is well-known that many law enforcement agencies in India are politicised. Neither is ED the first one nor the last. In the naughties, the “CBI raids” served the same purpose. Exploring the pervasive politicisation of the ED, Pratap Bhanu Mehta writes:The use of the ED has three purposes. The first is intimidation. The second is to keep the narrative of the old corrupt regime boiling. This is not a difficult proposition to sell to the public. But the third is to reveal the sheer self-absorption of the Opposition. “For my friends, everything; for my enemies, the law.” said a former Peruvian Field Marshal Óscar Benavides. That is precisely what seems to be happening here.Domestic politics aside, two Chinese mobile phone companies have recently come under ED investigation. In response, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson had this to say:The frequent investigations by the Indian side into Chinese enterprises not only disrupt the enterprises’ normal business activities and damage the goodwill of the enterprises, but also impedes the improvement of business environment in India and chills the confidence and willingness of market entities from other countries, including Chinese enterprises to invest and operate in India.Keeping aside the hypocrisy of China’s moralising, the spokesperson makes an important point. If the narrative goes out that economic crime investigations are being used for political purposes, India will pay a big price. Retrospective taxation was the poster child for India’s economic mismanagement last decade. We don’t need another deterrent puncturing investment dreams this decade.What could bring law enforcement agencies under control? Are there structural checks and balances that prevent political misuse? I don’t know. But an essential component of strengthening India’s Republic has to be to make investigative agencies truly autonomous from executive control. Not(PolicyWTF): The Question of ChoiceThis section looks at egregious public policies. Policies that make you go: WTF, Did that really happen? - Pranay Kotasthane"Life is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get." This Forrest Gump quote is equally applicable to the Indian judiciary. On most days, it comes out with verdicts that just follow the prevailing social trend. But, there are also those rare moments when the judiciary stands up to defend the Republic from the Democracy. Take what happened last week. In 2019, the Central Consumer Protection Authority (CCPA) —a new regulatory body—was formed to protect consumer rights. Earlier this month, the CCPA, in its infinite wisdom, issued guidelines that prevent hotels and restaurants from levying service charges. The guidelines thundered:No collection of service charge shall be done by any other name. No hotel or restaurant shall force a consumer to pay service charge and shall clearly inform the consumer that service charge is voluntary, optional and at consumer’s discretion… No restriction on entry or provision of services based on collection of service charge shall be imposed on consumers. Service charge shall not be collected by adding it along with the food bill and levying GST on the total amount.Why would the Indian State want to invest resources and time in changing these small matters is an always-relevant confounding question. But this time, the courts came to a partial rescue. The Delhi High Court stayed the guidelines. The judge even had a libertarian statement to go with the ruling. He said:If you don't want to pay, don't enter the restaurant. It is ultimately a question of choice.Music to my ears. Information asymmetry is not a problem as long as the service charges are known to the consumer beforehand. There is no market failure. The State can move on. How I wish the courts applied this new-found virtue of choice to other areas such as:If you don't want to get offended, don't read the book. It is ultimately a question of choice. No need to ban the book. If you don't want to pay, don't enter the movie theatre. It is ultimately a question of choice. No need to cap movie tickets.If you don’t like what others say about you, don’t talk to them. It is ultimately a question of choice. No need for defamation laws.You get the drift. Don’t make the State a tool to address your pet grievance. It has bigger fish to fry. (And let it apply service charges for the fried fish.)Global Policy Watch: The Three InternetsInsights on policy issues making news around the world— Pranay KotasthaneMany editions ago, I linked to one of Yiqin Fu’s articles on the Chinese internet. There’s so much about it that’s different beyond the fact that the State tightly controls the information flow there. For instance, Fu explains that the Chinese internet is different from the Western internet in these respects:One, search engines (and not just Google) are hardly used. People read primarily through social media feeds. And two, the complete dominance of super-apps:Take WeChat as an example. It is home to the vast majority of China’s original writing, and yet: 1. It doesn’t allow any external links; 2. Its posts are not indexed by search engines such as Google or Baidu, and its own search engine is practically useless; 3. You can’t check the author’s other posts if you open the page outside of the WeChat app. In other words, each WeChat article is an orphan, not linked to anything else on the Internet, not even the author’s previous work.The result of a lack of rediscovery means that knowledge creation, reflection, and historical context-setting are disincentivised. This resembles some parts of the Indian internet but is not quite the same. This architecture also means that people are pushed towards tracking the latest social media trend, with little or no incentive to create and read time-invariant content, such as blogs, articles, and papers without news pegs.So, there are three broad internet prototypes:The Western one: primary access is through desktop/laptop, not super-app based, search-engine driven, high discoverability of older articles, and email-based.The Chinese one: primary access is through the mobile phone, super-app driven, low discoverability, and instant-messaging based.The Indian one: The elites see an internet that’s a mix of the Western one and the Chinese one minus the censorship, while the non-elites are experiencing something much closer to the Chinese one. Forget geopolitics for a moment. And consider the impact of these three internet prototypes on their respective users. Will their cognitive effects be different? If yes, in what way? This is a fascinating question to which I have no good answers yet. What do you think? Another downside to skipping desktop is that weak ties built around emails are never formed. I don’t have data on Chinese employees’ modes of communication, but I wouldn’t be surprised if 90% of work communication is done over instant messaging. Multinational firms still use email, although when I asked on Chinese social media, my readers complained that emails often went unread. It seems like in the Chinese workplace, instant messaging still reigns supreme.Fu argues that the result is that weak ties through cold emails are seldom formed. Again, not very different from the case in India where we need to have a phone number in order to form a weak link now. What is the social consequence of this phenomenon?HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters[Podcast] MacroVoices #333: Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna in conversation with Harley Bassman on Inflation, Bond Yields, VIX vs MOVE, Demographics & More.[Blog] Pakistan is in big trouble: Noah Smith covers the subcontinent for the second week in a row.[Article] The functioning of the Enforcement Directorate, by Sonam Saigal.[Paper] How to reform high-stakes exam systems? is an important question in the Indian context. A new NBER paper titled Pareto Improvements in the Contest for College Admissions has some clues. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com

✅ Check out Rebel Capitalist Pro with Chris MacIntosh, Lyn Alden and many more for $1 click here!! https://georgegammon.com/pro

Today, you're in for another great episode as Tim and Greg share their incredible real estate journey, how they started using the top five favorite learning materials, and some pro tips for real estate starters. Listen in to effectively educate yourself and the next step to achieve your financial freedom!WHAT TO LISTEN FORTop 5 podcast shows for real estate beginners5 great real estate books to start your investing careerTop 5 book recommendations for mindset settingThe next step to take after getting yourself educatedTips for maximizing conferences, meetups, and masterminds in real estateRESOURCES/LINKS MENTIONEDGet Rich Education by Keith WeinholdBiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast | David Green and Rob Abasolo Financial Freedom with Real Estate Investing | Michael Blank and Garrett Lynch The Real Estate Guys Radio Show | Robert Helms and Russell GrayThe Real Estate CPA Podcast (Tax Smart Real Estate Investors Podcast) | Brandon Hall and Thomas CastelliRich Dad Poor Dad Robert Kiyosaki Mass MarketRich Dad's Cashflow Quadrant by Robert Kiyosaki Tax-Free Wealth by Tom WheelwrightOwn Your Freedom: Sustainable Wealth for a Volatile WorldPassive Investing Made Simple by Anthony Vicino The Wealthy Gardener by John Soforic The Miracle Morning by Hal Elrod Can't Hurt Me by David GogginsThink and Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill The 10X Rule by Grant Cardone Macro Voices by Erik Townsend and Patrick CeresnaEntrepreneurs On Fire by John Lee Dnumas The Ed Mylett Show by Ed MylettThe Creating Wealth Show by Jason HartmanCONNECT WITH USTo learn more about investment opportunities, join the Cityside Capital Investor Club https://citysidecap.com/Follow us on Facebook: https://web.facebook.com/Citysidecap/Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/citysidecapital_tim_lyons/Connect with us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tim-lyons-cityside-capital/

In this third episode of our three-part series, host Grant Williams speaks with the original host of Smarter Markets, Erik Townsend.  Erik and Grant discuss the concept of Smarter Markets, through the lens of financial systems, digital currencies, and NFT's, and how technological advancements will champion these new currency systems.

For the opening episode of our new series, legendary podcast host Grant Williams welcomes back Jeff Currie, Global Head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, to examine the question “What are Smarter Markets?” What are SmarterMarkets? SmarterMarkets is our vision for using technology to redesign and improve markets to meet society's biggest challenges, including climate change and the energy transition. SmarterMarkets is also our weekly podcast, bringing you the entrepreneurs, icons and executives of commodities, capital markets and technology to rant on the inadequacies of our systems and riff on ideas for how to improve them. Our three-part series “What are SmarterMarkets?” will include Jeff Currie, Head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, Josh Crumb, CEO and Founder of Abaxx Technologies, and Erik Townsend, host of MACROVoices.

EDIT: Here's the link to part 1 of the Erik Townsend interview mentioned by Jason in this episode: https://www.macrovoices.com/1001-macrovoices-285-summer-special-digital-currencies-decentralized-finance-revolution-part-1******Throughout the development process for our Nomad Network community app, we've spent a lot of time thinking about what the future of the economy will look like.As we pass through this Great Transition, advances in digital technology are turning into advances in social technology at an accelerating pace. In order to stay ahead of the curve, we've been reimagining some of our most basic assumptions about things like "property" and "ownership."We want you guys to join us on a journey as we explore this new world.But first, you need to familiarize yourself with two terms in particular: DeFi (short for "decentralized finance" and DAOs, or "decentralized autonomous organizations".*******If you're ready to take control of your life, income, and future, go to http://controlthesource.com and join the Nomad Network to get started. Brand new app in app stores now!Give your business an unfair advantage in less than 3 minutes a day. Get the daily newsletter that delivers the most actionable and tactical growth strategies available today, straight from the mind of a marketing genius: http://dailyalchemy.me.Learn the blueprint for generating predictable and sustainable income from anywhere on earth: http://www.nomadicwealthoffer.com.Jason on Twitter: https://twitter.com/jason_stapletonJason on IG: https://www.instagram.com/thejasonstapletonJason's website: https://jasonstapleton.comMatt on Twitter: https://twitter.com/realkingpilledDon't forget to like and subscribe, and please share the show!

✅ LYN ALDEN and I discuss portfolio that will HELP YOU profit from DOLLAR losing reserve currency status, click this link to check it out!!

Erik Townsend returns to SmarterMarkets™ this week to introduce Michelle Dennedy’s co-host this season; Todd Buchholz, former Whitehouse Director of Economic Policy and Managing Director of the Acclaimed $15 Billion Tiger Hedge Fund.  

Erik Townsend interviews new Smarter Markets host Michelle Dennedy on her own background as a digital privacy activist. This episode is designed to introduce the audience to Michelle herself, and then in coming weeks Michelle will introduce listeners to a side of Silicon Valley most have never seen.

Tom Raftery is the Global VP, Futurist, and Innovation Evangelist for SAP, an inspirational keynote speaker and global influencer on how digitization and innovation are creatively disrupting our world.I first heard Tom feature on Smarter Markets with Erik Townsend and was blown away by his optimistic worldview. True to his Irish roots, he communicated a narrative with charisma that is so often bumbled and fluffed around by his scientific comrades.Renewable energy has a lot of bad PR working against it. There is certainly merit to being sceptical in the face of change, but since we know that our current energy consumption is destroying the planet why is the green message so hard to swallow?Jump In On My Newsletter

Recently one of my favourite podcasts, MacroVoices, had a discussion between the host Erik Townsend and Mike Green about Bitcoin's role in the Future of Digital Currency. I have huge respect for both Erik and Mike, and so I immediately listened! If you have not listened to it then I really recommend that you do, BEFORE listening to my reaction to it. Unfortunately, I found the episode to be biased, misleading, and 5 years out of date. I woke up the next morning and had about 100 people asking me to do a reaction pod to it. So here is that reaction pod. It's a monologue, it's totally different to normal, and people may love or hate it (as always please send any feedback to me @Darky999) I am candid, civil, and I think it's abundantly clear that this reaction is not in any way a personal attack on either Erik or Mike, quite the opposite, this is to add to the discussion about the financial system of the world, and how we can hopefully build a brighter future based on new technologies.

Listen to this episode on iTunes What was your biggest insight from this week's episode? Let Jay know in the […]

At this point no one knows when COVID will abate. However, it is undeniable that this health crisis has negatively impacted the economy. What does it mean to return to normal? Is that even possible? And will the divide between the rich and the poor continue to grow? CrossTalking with Peter Earle, Ahmed Riesgo, and Erik Townsend.

In episode #107, Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir welcome back Andreas Steno Larsen from Nordea to the show to discuss … Continue ReadingThe Ketchup Effect (guests: Andreas Steno Larsen, Erik Townsend)

Topics: Defining Your Edge Erik’s Edge in Trading Crude Oil Trading Crude Oil Spreads What’s Next for the Price of Crude Oil ?Download my Trading Instincts e-book!  Erik TownsendTrader & Host of MacroVoices Podcast Erik’s Resources Twitter MacroVoices Podcast If you enjoyed this interview be sure to check out these other episodes: Failure Can Be […]

Topics: Defining Your Edge Erik’s Edge in Trading Crude Oil Trading Crude Oil Spreads What’s Next for the Price of Crude Oil

Topics: Defining Your Edge Erik’s Edge in Trading Crude Oil Trading Crude Oil Spreads What’s Next for the Price of Crude Oil ?Download my Trading Instincts e-book!  Erik TownsendTrader & Host of MacroVoices Podcast Erik’s Resources Twitter MacroVoices Podcast If you enjoyed this interview be sure to check out these other episodes: Failure Can Be […]

Summary:Introduction Summary of Erik's book about digital currencies Why Bitcoin is the likely winner Bitcoin as a bearer asset Silicon Valley coin Why people will choose Bitcoin Central Bankers knowledge and goals Capital controls by governments Geopolitical control of currency Governments will force their citizens onto "The Orwell" currency. Black market currencies Bitcoin's proof of work and difficulty adjustment Bitcoin's layers and distributed architecture Building a decentralized financial system Ethereum doesn't scale. Why Erik doesn't talk about Bitcoin on his podcast. Wrap up Erik on TwitterYan on TwitterSwan Bitcoin: The best way to buy bitcoin from your back account with automatic recurring buys 

In this episode of the Big Question Podcast I speak to Erik Townsend, entrepreneur, hedge fund manager, and co-founder of Macro Voices. We discuss the global commodity cycle, China and Hong Kong real estate market, sovereign bond markets, coming US election, and global geopolitical situation where Erik believes we're potentially headed for an outright war. If you enjoyed this podcast, make sure to receive future Big Question conversations right in your inbox: capitalistexploits.at/signup/