Podcasts about macro risk advisors

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. Dean Curnutt, founder and CEO of Macro Risk Advisors, joins Forward Guidance to share how the ongoing bull market has led to a bear market in volatility. Realized and implied vol has fallen sharply as the market has grinded higher, which has created some interesting opportunities to hedge risk. Curnutt notes that the correlation between stocks and bonds remains positive, which is worrisome for diversified investors. Curnutt is also the host of Alpha Exchange podcast. Filmed on January 25, 2024. __ Follow Dean Curnutt on Twitter https://twitter.com/Alpha_Ex_LLC Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks' Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:36) Preparing For Risk Off Events (16:13) VanEck Ad (20:09) Fed Rate Cuts In 2024 (25:49) Volatility (33:16) How Low Can The VIX Go? (42:27) Volatility Risk Premium (46:53) Credit Volatility (54:02) U.S Elections & Volatility Risk (01:03:43) What Is The Vol Structure Pricing In? (01:13:09) When To Buy Cheap Volatility? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode I speak with Dean Curnutt, founder of Macro Risk Advisors and host of the Alpha Exchange podcast.This episode is all about the nature of risk. More specifically, the endogenous risk that can manifest in markets. We discuss the crash of 1987, Long-Term Capital Management, the Financial Crisis of 2008, the XIV implosion of February 2018, and the 2020 COVID crisis.With these crises in mind, we touches upon topics such as reflexivity, crowding, risk recycling, and the evolving role of the Fed. Dean also shares his thoughts about the nature of risk, how it is woven into the fabric of markets, and why it seems like there's a crisis every 11 years.For those who love to think about risk and the nature of markets, this episode is for you.So sit back, relax, and enjoy this episode of Flirting with Models with Dean Curnutt.

The scenario of an extreme market impact from zero days to expiration options may be overstated and Commodity Trading Advisors' positive beta to equity may be a near-term headwind for SPX. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast on volatility, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dean Curnutt, the CEO of Macro Risk Advisors. Points covered include key themes from the volatility markets year-to-date, 0DTE options, CTAs and VIX optionality.

This week we welcome to the show, Dean Curnutt. Dean is the founder of Macro Risk Advisors and the host of the wonderful podcast, the Alpha Exchange. We talk about his career on Wall Street, the risks facing the market today, and Dean shares with us an unexpected out-of-the-box Byron Wien surprise. ⭐️Visit our merch store!!! 👉https://www.markethuddlemerch.com/ ⭐️ *Got questions for Kevin and Patrick? Submit your questions to: 📩nostupidquestions@markethuddle.com To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/

Today’s audio recap focuses on our December 4 note, 2022 Outlook: Inflation Policy & PoliticsHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.I was interviewed Friday for the Market Huddle PodcastTo read the note referenced in our weekly podcast, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year. If you are already a subscriber, thank you.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

On this special 3 year anniversary episode of the Alpha Exchange, we turn the tables and your host Dean Curnutt is the guest. In conversation with dear friend Arthur Kaz, Dean shares perspectives developed over 30 years in financial markets. Through the discussion we learn of a risk framework focused on understanding the why of volatility events and how this study led to Dean's founding of Macro Risk Advisors in 2008.  Asked by Arthur to share a few war stories, Dean tells us of how a surge in implied volatility during the financial crisis caused certain call options to actually rise in value even as the stock plunged.  With regard to market risk today, Dean has strong views on the risks of an unfriendly Fed, especially given the many signs of valuation froth that are easy to see. Lastly, Arthur and Dean talk about MacroMinds, a charitable organization Dean created in 2019 to support causes that expand educational opportunities for students. With a very successful launch event in 2021, Dean is looking forward to hosting the 2022 symposium in person, bringing the investment community together to learn and make an impact. We hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, a conversation with Dean Curnutt.

Special guest Dean Curnutt, founder and CEO of Macro Risk Advisors, joins this week's episode. 

Today’s audio recap focuses on our November 26 note, Endemic or Return to the Pandemic?Here is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.To read the note referenced in our weekly podcast, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year. If you are already a subscriber, thank you.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s audio recap focuses on our November 19 note, Dropping Dynamite in the OceanHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.To read the note referenced in our weekly podcast, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year. If you are already a subscriber, thank you.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s audio recap focuses on our November 12 note, Straight to the '70s?Here is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.To read the note referenced in our weekly podcast, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year. If you are already a subscriber, thank you.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s audio recap focuses on our November 5 note, CredibilityHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.To read the note referenced in our weekly podcast, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year. If you are already a subscriber, thank you.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

I will be on Fox Business, Morning’s With Maria, at 8am Eastern Monday November 1Today’s audio recap focuses on our October 30 note, The Ironic Word of the YearHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.To read the note referenced in our weekly podcast, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year. If you are already a subscriber, thank you.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s audio recap focuses on our October 23 note, HandcuffedHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.To read the note referenced in our weekly podcast, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year. If you are already a subscriber, thank you.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s audio recap focuses on our October 16 note, Power to the PeopleHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.To read the note referenced in our weekly podcast, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year. If you are already a subscriber, thank you.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s audio recap focuses on our October 9 note, Nothing is Resolved or Fully PricedHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.To read the note referenced in our weekly podcast, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year. If you are already a subscriber, thank you.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s audio recap focuses on our October 2 note, Risk OffHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.To read the note referenced in our weekly podcast, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year. If you are already a subscriber, thank you.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s audio recap focuses on our September 25 note, InflectionsHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.To read the note referenced in our weekly podcast, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s audio recap focuses on our Sep 18 note, The Bill Comes DueHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.To read the note referenced in our weekly podcast, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Note: The transition to charging for these podcasts will extend into autumnToday’s audio recap focuses on our Sep 11 note, Policy TighteningHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.I released an essay on Friday, Reflections on 9/11To read the note referenced in our weekly podcast, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.Subscribe nowFor additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Note: The transition to charging for these podcasts will probably extend into autumnToday’s audio recap focuses on our Sep 4 note, Mostly Charts & Labor BottlenecksHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.To read the note referenced in our weekly podcast, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.Subscribe nowFor additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Note: The transition to charging for these podcasts will probably extend into autumnToday’s audio recap focuses on our August 28 note, QE Not 4everHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.To read the note referenced in our weekly podcast, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s audio recap focuses on our August 21, Long and Variable LagsHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.To read the note referenced in our weekly podcast, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s audio recap focuses on our August 14, The Upside DownHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.Figure 6: We have never found consumer sentiment surveys to be useful in forecasting consumption. They are very useful in forecasting elections. The party that is most angry gets the highest turnout and wins elections. Right now the energy is on the Republican side.To read the note referenced in our weekly podcast, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s audio recap focuses on our August 7, An Update from the RoadHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.Figure 1: Our of our globalization impaired sectors (1st and 2nd order impacted) improved in July. Whole trade nonsupervisory average hourly earnings increased 5.98% over the prior two years annualized (this is how we smoothed the data) from 4.60% pre-pandemic. Manufacturing earnings rose 5.13% from 3.59% in February ‘20, services were 4.40% from 3.63% and total private sector 3.70% from 2.99%. This is likely more than just a level shift given the restructuring of global supply chains, consequently, this will impact the Fed’s ‘inflation process’.To read the note referenced in our weekly podcast, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Note: We had an editing issue with our full note Friday, one paragraph was omitted and another was duplicated, please use this link and reread the note if you are a full subscriber.ProgressToday’s audio recap focuses on our July 31st note, ProgressHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.Figure 4: We moved unit labor costs for the nonfinancial corporate sector 3 quarters forward relative to CPI. Unit labor costs and labor share of income were increasing late last cycle, we expect that pattern to resume as labor market bottlenecks clear.To read the note referenced in our weekly podcast, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://ironsidesmacro.substack.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Important Note: Our Monday verbal summaries of our weekly notes are going behind the subscriber paywall later this summer. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber (details below).Today’s verbal recap focuses on our July 24th note, The Liquidity TsunamiHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.Figure 2: The US Treasury’s General Account contracted rapidly during 1H21, this injected $1 trillion into the banking system. Direct checks to individuals from the American Recovery Plan ($1.9 trillion of deficit spending) and reduced Treasury Bill issuance were the conduits. The process is nearly complete.To read the note referenced in our weekly podcast, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://ironsidesmacro.substack.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Inflation Shock, 2H policy, economic and markets outlookImportant Note: Our Monday verbal summaries of our weekly notes are going behind the subscriber paywall later this summer. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber (details below).Today’s verbal recap focuses on our July 17th note, 2H21 Outlook: Transition to Mid-CycleHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.Figure 6: Prior spikes in inflation expectations were driven by oil price spikes, while energy prices have increased dismissing the recent increase on that basis strains credibility. The survey implies demand destruction in autos and housing from inflation and appears to be the primary explanation for the sharp drop in both current conditions and expectations.To read the note referenced in our weekly podcast, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://ironsidesmacro.substack.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Important Note: Our Monday verbal summaries of our weekly notes are going behind the subscriber paywall later this summer. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber (details below).Today’s verbal recap focuses on our July 10th note, Command and ControlHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.Figure 7: The 30-Year real rate (TIPS yield) has retraced all of the bull wave rally. We expect it to resume this summer as the Democrats renew their push for additional mandatory deficit spending.To read the note referenced in our weekly podcast, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://ironsidesmacro.substack.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Important Note: Our Monday verbal summaries of our weekly notes are going behind the subscriber paywall later this summer. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber (details below).Today’s verbal recap focuses on our July 3rd note, The Global Labor Supply Shock is OverHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.Figure 3: We think these sectors best reflect the impact of China on US manufacturing employment.To read the note referenced in our weekly podcast, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://ironsidesmacro.substack.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s podcast focuses on our June 25th note, Better Left Unsaid.Here is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.Figure 1: Monetary policy normalization risk-off episodes are larger since the QE era began following the financial crisis. The largest came when the Fed reduced their holdings of mortgage-backed securities. These measures are standard deviations from their long-run median. The equity measure includes the VIX, VVIX, term structure, skew and implied correlation. It is elevated primarily due to the skew index (see figure 9). The MOVE Index includes implied volatility across the yield curve.To read the note referenced in our weekly podcast, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://ironsidesmacro.substack.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s podcast focuses on our June 18th note, Bullard Knows SomethingHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.Figure 4: Most Fed officials believe demographics played a major role in the multi-decade downtrend in the natural rate. We agree but also believe both domestic and global demographic trends are reversing.To read the note referenced in our weekly podcast, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://ironsidesmacro.substack.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Now the Global Head of Macro at Schonfeld Strategic Advisors, Colin Lancaster has always found top-down investing a fascinating discipline.  Trained as a lawyer but finding his way to the buy-side in the 1990's, Colin has spent the last 25 years in markets, allocating capital and building teams focused on macro.  Over his long career, he's traded through his share of vol events, each a challenging experience but also formative from a risk philosophy standpoint. Our conversation is a retrospective on the nature of risks that investors are forced to confront, how discontinuities in asset prices materialize and that ever elusive search for the positive carry hedge. Exploring seismic episodes of risk-off, we also spend time on the need to anticipate the inevitable and typically overwhelming response from the Central Bank and how, post both the GFC and now Pandemic, the Fed's interventions have increasingly crowded out the integrity of market price signals.  Lastly, we spend time on Colin's fast paced and insightful book, “FED UP!”, a project he undertook in 2020.  In it, Colin brings to life the frenetic, all-consuming world of global macro investing in which an unwelcome portfolio move is always a bad tweet away and decisions must be made quickly and based on a vastly incomplete information set.  Weaved into “FED UP!” is a statement of concern about the widening gap of wealth inequality in the US.  In a world in which asset prices are increasingly the outcome of Central Banks who mean well but whose actions vastly benefit some versus others, a certain rethink may be in order.  I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Colin Lancaster.DISCLAIMER: This e-mail and any attachments are for the confidential use of the intended recipient. If you are not the intended recipient of this message you are hereby notified that any review, dissemination, distribution or copying of this message is strictly prohibited. This communication is for information purposes only and should not be regarded as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy any investment product, an official confirmation of any transaction or an official statement of Macro Risk Advisors, LLC. E-mail transmissions cannot be guaranteed to be secure or error-free. Therefore, we do not represent that this information is complete or accurate and it should not be relied upon as such. All information is subject to change without notice.Macro Risk Advisors may, at its discretion, monitor and review the content of all e-mail communications.

Today’s podcast focuses on our June 12th note, Borrow Now or Borrow LaterHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.Figure 2: The most intractable contributors to inflation, and biggest productivity drags, are negatively impacted the inflation aggregates. That will not last long.To read the note referenced in our weekly podcast, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://ironsidesmacro.substack.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s podcast focuses on our June 5th note, Future ShockHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.Figure 6: The NFIB May Survey indicates the labor market has never been tighter for small businesses.To read the note referenced in our weekly podcast, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://ironsidesmacro.substack.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s podcast focuses on our May 29th note, Accelerating Capital InvestmentHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.Figure 6: This was the only cycle when investment did not contract much more than consumption. The contractions during the weak capital formation of the ‘50s were followed by a decade of exceptionally strong capex.To read the full note, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://ironsidesmacro.substack.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s podcast focuses on our May 22nd note, Follow the MoneyHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.Figure 2: Total revisions are increases in analyst estimates less decreases, 4th quarter revisions is a measure of forward guidance.To read the full note, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://ironsidesmacro.substack.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s podcast focuses on our May 15th note, Inflation: Making Sure "It" Does Happen HereHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.Figure 2: There are no base effects in quarter-on-quarter numbers.To read the full note, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://ironsidesmacro.substack.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s podcast focuses on our May 8th note, Partial Yield Curve ControlHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday morning following the release of this podcast.Figure 6: Fixed volatility and the option-adjusted spread are directly impacted by Fed mortgage purchases. The spread and implied volatility are exceptionally low at present, with the housing market white hot the Fed should consider removing support.To read the full note, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://ironsidesmacro.substack.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

After a 6 week hiatus during which I was recovering from a serious jet ski accident, I am excited to bring you a fresh episode of the Alpha Exchange.  And it was wonderful to spend time with Andrew Scott, a Partner and Head of Client Solutions at Bach Option.  Our conversation is an exploration into the complex factors that drive the clearing price for volatility in equity markets.  In this context, we spend no time on the economic cycle or corporate profits or the latest missive from the Fed.  Instead, Andrew explains how the vast industry of Asian structured products leaves banks with complex exposures to optionality, correlation and dividends.  These trades, designed to create income in countries like South Korean that have seen interest rates in secular decline, leave banks with substantial long vol positions.   Through our conversation, we learn of the concept of “peak vega”, an industry estimate for the level of the underlying index where bank’s are most long vega.  Andrew also lays out in great detail the risk recycling that has long operated alongside the structured products universe.  Here, depressed levels of index vol and skew in Asia encouraged hedge funds and asset managers to implement volatility relative value trades versus the S&P 500.  Lastly, we touch on Andrew’s new position at Bach Option, joining founder Miao-Dan Wu in building out a firm dedicated to understanding and trading volatility at a time of great change in markets and plenty of catalysts for the next volatility event.  I hope you enjoy my discussion with Andrew Scott.DISCLAIMER: This e-mail and any attachments are for the confidential use of the intended recipient. If you are not the intended recipient of this message you are hereby notified that any review, dissemination, distribution or copying of this message is strictly prohibited. This communication is for information purposes only and should not be regarded as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy any investment product, an official confirmation of any transaction or an official statement of Macro Risk Advisors, LLC. E-mail transmissions cannot be guaranteed to be secure or error-free. Therefore, we do not represent that this information is complete or accurate and it should not be relied upon as such. All information is subject to change without notice.Macro Risk Advisors may, at its discretion, monitor and review the content of all e-mail communications.

Today’s podcast focuses on our May 1st note, Substantial Further ProgressHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday morning following the release of this podcast.Figure 2: There have been three major supply-side tax cuts in the last 50-years, tax receipts did not fall as a percent of GDP following any of the tax regime changes. Capital investment strengthened.To read the full note, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://ironsidesmacro.substack.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s podcast focuses on our April 24th note, Das KapitalHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday morning following the release of this podcast.Figure 7: Free cash flow is leading the recovery in corporate fundamentals. This is good news for capital investment, R&D and buybacks.To read the full note, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://ironsidesmacro.substack.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s podcast focuses on our April 17th note, Ready to RipHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday morning following the release of this podcast.Figure 9: This chart explains a decent part of our reluctance to recommend European or Japanese equities. Monetary and regulatory policy has crippled their banking systems.To read the full note, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.Barry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://ironsidesmacro.substack.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s podcast focuses on our April 10th note, Inflation, Margins, Earnings & Business Cycles.Here is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday morning following the release of this podcast.Figure 8: We turned the S&P PE into an earnings yield to make this chart easier to interpret. Omitted from this chart was Treasury yields, they rose consistently through the ‘60s. In other words, they were a poor risk diversifier.To read the full note, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.Barry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://ironsidesmacro.substack.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

CFA Society Chicago member Rich Excell, CFA, talks with Dean Curnutt, CEO of Macro Risk Advisors on what we learned from the GameStop saga, on the retail options trading phenomenon and on options market innovations over the last 25 years. Connect with Rich on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/richexcellcfa/ and Twitter @ExcellRichard  Connect with Dean on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/dean-curnutt-4060157/ MacroMinds Virtual Symposium https://macrominds.org/the-symposium/ Alpha Exchange Podcast https://alphaexchange.simplecast.com/ For more episodes go to www.cfachicago.org/podcasts    

Today’s podcast focuses on our April 3rd note, A Good Friday for Jobs, not for Bonds.Here is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday morning following the release of this podcast.Figure 6: This should now be on your watch list. Given the shift in the Fed’s mandate towards employment, the monthly employment report will be key to the timing of removal of policy accommodation.To read the full note, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.Barry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://ironsidesmacro.substack.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s podcast focuses on our March 27th note, Pandemic Effects.Here is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday morning following the release of this podcast.Figure 3: The pandemic caused a very transitory hit to technology sector earnings despite the cyclicality of semiconductor and software investment. As capital investment plans recover from the pandemic and the trade war and global supply chains are restructured (Intel for example) these estimates are likely to go higher and the benefits of technology innovation adoption will spread to other sectors including industrials, healthcare, and financials.To read the full note, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.Barry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://ironsidesmacro.substack.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

We did not release a note this week, you will hear from us shortly in written form. In the interim, here are some updated thoughts.Here is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday morning following the release of this podcast.Figure 1: Treasury demand at large banks has been falling, most have room to add within the supplementary leverage ratio framework. The larger issue is whether risk-based capital requirements will crowd out the private sector.Figure 2: The only private sector lending during the pandemic is small business corporate lending, which was facilitated by the PPP program. There has been no real estate lending despite the housing boom underscoring how post-GFC policies effectively nationalized mortgage lending.Figure 3: The financial crisis was a deflationary shock, subsequently they resumed their disinflationary impulse through the cycle. The pandemic was an inflationary shock, prices paid, delivery times, orders and production are surging. We do not expect the effect to be transitory.Figure 4: The recent volatility, softness in November, December and February and an incredibly strong January increase that was revised sharply higher, appears to be attributable to problems with seasonal adjustment factors. Nevertheless, the annualized level has been increasing fairly steadily even before the easy comparisons begin in March. To read the full note, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.Barry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://ironsidesmacro.substack.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s podcast focuses on our March 12th note, 2Q21 Outlook: Room to Run. Here is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday morning following the release of this podcast.Figure 1: The mix matters; unlike 2018 when the Fed had their balance contraction on auto-pilot, both inflation breakevens and real rates are rising underscoring the market’s expectation that $5.3 trillion of deficit financed government spending will increase the government’s debt service costs and increase inflation.To read the full note, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.Barry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://ironsidesmacro.substack.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2021 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Fed resistance to repurposing taxpayer funds, Gig workers go back to work and cyclicals continue to outperformFigure 3: Credit to Dean Curnutt from Macro Risk Advisors who shared a chart of the VIX with CDX. Using our equity measures of risk (Figure 7) and the Barclays IG option-adjusted-spread (OAS), credit looks exceptionally cheap (or equity volatility rich). There is no justification for the Fed Corporate Credit Facilities to be utilizing taxpayer funds that could be more efficaciously deployed directly to those in need due to NPIs.Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, or if you are an institutional client, on boarding us to your research platform to read our full note and gain access to our client presentation, measures of risk and valuation, recommended reading list and additional products. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year.Barry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://ironsidesmacro.substack.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2020 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Risk off sell everything, payrolls preview, equity volatility is the only escape valve and fasten your seat beltThis week’s report Be Greedy When Others are FearfulFigure 1: SPX risk is the S&P 500 Volatility, the Volatility of Volatility, correlation and skew indices as well as the term structure of VIX futures (6 month less 1 month) in a z-score format. Wednesday it expanded to 2.43 standard deviations, it remained above 2 on Thursday and Friday. We consider these readings high relative to underlying economic conditions. The election and latest surge in Covid-19 cases appear reasonably discounted.Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, or if you are an institutional client, on boarding us to your research platform to read our full note and gain access to our client presentation, measures of risk and valuation, recommended reading list and additional products. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month.Lehman Veterans Knapp, Curnutt Reunite at Macro Risk Advisors2020-10-30 16:14:49.326 GMTBy Sonali Basak(Bloomberg) -- Barry Knapp is reuniting with former LehmanBrothers Holdings Inc. colleague Dean Curnutt as the duo seek toexpand their work advising large investors.Knapp, who previously worked at Guggenheim Securities andBlackRock Inc., is keeping his own research firm, IronsidesMacroeconomics, while also working as a senior adviser toCurnutt’s Macro Risk Advisors. The two worked together in the1990s at Lehman during what Knapp calls the “glory days ofequity derivatives.”“We were doing ETF-like transactions with macro hedge fundsbefore there were ETFs,” Knapp said in a phone interview,referring to exchange-traded funds. “I did a Russell 2000 swapbefore there were Russell 2000 futures.”Curnutt founded his company in 2008 to advise institutionalinvestors on market risks. He previously was head of equitysales and trading at Bank of America Corp. and, before that,worked in the equity derivatives unit at Lehman in the fouryears through 1999, according to his LinkedIn profile.Knapp joined BlackRock’s fixed-income investment-managementdivision in 2014, after almost two decades at Lehman and thenfive years at Barclays Plc. He joined Guggenheim in 2017 andleft about a year later.Knapp’s “macro expertise will be a welcome addition to theset of tools we bring to clients to help navigate markets andrisk at a time of great uncertainty,” Curnutt said by phone.“Having known Barry for 25 years and worked with him before, Ihave a strong appreciation for his talents and expertise.”If there are any questions about the above Bloomberg story please contact meBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://ironsidesmacro.substack.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappReading ListLatest Book: “A History of the Federal Reserve, Volume 2, Book 1, 1951-1969”, Allan H. MeltzerNext Book: “Human Action, The Scholar’s Edition”, Ludwig von Mises“Trade Wars Are Class Wars”, Matthew C. Klein & Michael Pettis“Showdown at Gucci Gulch, Lawmakers, Lobbyists, and the Unlikely Triumph of Tax Reform”, Jeffrey H. Birnbaum and Alan S. Murray“A Great Leap Forward, 1930s Depression and US Economic Growth”, Alexander J. Field“1493, Uncovering the New World Columbus Created”, Charles C. Mann“Great Society, A New History”, Amity Shlaes“The Second Machine Age”, Erik Brynjolofsson, Andrew McAfee“Grand Pursuit, the Story of Economic Genius”, Sylvia Nasar“The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers”, Paul Kennedy“Capitalism in America, A History”, Alan Greenspan & Adrian Woolridge“Diversity Explosion, How New Racial Demographics are Remaking America”, William H. Frey“Clashing Over Commerce, A History of US Trade Policy”, Douglas A. Irwin“Destined for War, Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap”, Graham Allison“The Constitution of Liberty”, F.A. Hayek“Judgement in Moscow, Soviet Crimes and Western Complicity”, Vladimir Bukovsky“1931, Debt, Crisis and the Rise of Hitler”, Tobias StraumannThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2020 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

Dean Curnutt, founder and chief executive officer of Macro Risk Advisors, joins Grant’s to talk markets, volatility and anticipating the future. @Dcurnutt 1:42 Today and 2017, have things changed? 5:52 #Gold, the anti-S&P 11:23 Risk parity and trend followers: The next step 19:50 Opportunities in cyclical #stocks Subscribe to the Grant's Current  Yield Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio, Google Play Music or listen from our website, www.grantspub.com

In recent years, one of the easiest ways to make money in this market has been to bet on low volatility. Up until recently, markets have been exceptionally tranquil, and trades predicated on that tranquility continuing have made a fortune. But two of the most popular vehicles for making that trade, XIV and SVXY got obliterated in one day in early February. On this week's episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we speak to Pravit Chintawongvanich, the head of Derivatives Strategy at Macro Risk Advisors about the episode. He explains what the short volatility trade was, how specifically these funds operated, and how they ultimately became victims of their own success. 

Jared interviews Dean Curnutt, CEO of Macro Risk Advisors. Dean talks about what it was like opening an agency broker-dealer (during the financial crisis), the ups and downs and everything in between. Jared and Dean also discuss the current state of equity volatility, the prevalence of short volatility trades, and the fragility of the vol ecosystem.

For the past few years, everyone in markets has been talking about nothing. Market moves have been subdued and the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index, better known as the VIX, recently sank to its lowest in about three decades. We speak with Pravit Chintawongvanich, head of derivatives strategy at Macro Risk Advisors and an expert in volatility. He explains what the VIX actually measures, why it's so low, and how betting against sharp moves in the market became one of the hottest and most lucrative trades around. We also talk about "50 Cent." That's not the rapper, but the mystery buyer who's been bucking wider trend and buying volatility protection at a consistent clip.

Austan Goolsbee, former chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, says the TPP was a renegotiation of NAFTA and that trade wars would be a "disaster." Prior to that, Dean Curnett, CEO of Macro Risk Advisors, says volatility due to politics has been increasing and it's challenging to know how and when some of these risks will make their way into markets. Former HHS Secretary Mike Leavitt says President Trump and the GOP will focus on Medicaid. Finally, David Herro, CIO of Harris Associates, says non-U.S. stocks are more attractive than U.S. in valuation. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Austan Goolsbee, former chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, says the TPP was a renegotiation of NAFTA and that trade wars would be a "disaster." Prior to that, Dean Curnett, CEO of Macro Risk Advisors, says volatility due to politics has been increasing and it's challenging to know how and when some of these risks will make their way into markets. Former HHS Secretary Mike Leavitt says President Trump and the GOP will focus on Medicaid. Finally, David Herro, CIO of Harris Associates, says non-U.S. stocks are more attractive than U.S. in valuation.

Tom Keene and Michael McKee bring you the best in economics, finance, investment and international relations. Today in Surveillance, they discuss the state of the market with Macro Risk Advisors' Dean Curnutt; the Yen with Rabobank's Jane Foley; housing with Fannie Mae's Doug Duncan; and economic data with BlackRock's Martin Hegarty. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Macro Risk Advisors' Dean Curnutt speaks about how central banks are causing volatility. "Indentured" authors Joe Nocera and Ben Strauss sit down to discuss the rebellion against the NCAA. WPP's Martin Sorrell weighs in on the Brexit debate and the future of the advertising industry. All this and more on Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene and Michael McKee. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com