Podcast appearances and mentions of robin harding

Robin Harding, Asia Editor of the Financial Times joins the program to discuss how the ongoing trade war is playing out in China.

This week on Taking Stock Emmet Oliver chats to Joe Miller, who is Washington Correspondent with the Financial Times, about how the relationship between Elon Musk and Trump is faring since the tariff wars started.Emmet also talks to Gustav Agneman, Associate Professor of Economics at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, about what the people of Greenland really feel about America.Plus, there is a deep dive into 'sovereign wealth funds' and what they really mean for a country with Robin Harding who is Asia Editor with the FT.

Disclosure: We are part of the Amazon Affiliate/LTK Creator programs. We will receive a small commission at no cost if you purchase a book. This post may contain links to purchase books.In this episode, I sit down with Rachel Koller Croft, the author of Stone Cold Fox (https://amzn.to/4duIVYp) and the highly anticipated novel We Love the Nightlife (https://amzn.to/3XcveYA). Rachel shares her fascinating journey from screenwriting in Hollywood to becoming a novelist. We delve into her inspirations, her love for vampires, and how her experiences in Los Angeles and London have shaped her writing. Plus, we chat about her book club, favorite reads, and what makes her novels so irresistibly fun. If you love thrillers and literary fiction or need book recommendations, this episode is a must-listen!In This Episode, We Discuss:Rachel's transition from screenwriting to novel writingThe inspiration behind Stone Cold Fox (https://amzn.to/4duIVYp) and We Love the Nightlife (https://amzn.to/3XcveYA)The allure of vampires and why they're Rachel's favorite spooky creaturesThe importance of having fun while writing and how it translates into her workHow Rachel started and maintains a long-running book clubRachel's favorite book recommendations and what she's currently readingBooks Mentioned:Stone Cold Fox by Rachel Koller Croft https://amzn.to/4duIVYpWe Love the Nightlife by Rachel Koller Croft (upcoming) https://amzn.to/3XcveYAThe Last Mrs. Parrish by Liv Constantine https://amzn.to/3WUhbWbThe Drowning Woman by Robin Harding https://amzn.to/3Mlfz2JThe Haters by Robin Harding https://amzn.to/3YRL6RqThe Hollywood Assistant by May Cobb https://amzn.to/3yL1TLwSo Thirsty by Rachel Harrison https://amzn.to/3yDIP1MThe Rachel Incident by Caroline O'Donoghue https://amzn.to/3XbvAOZGood Material by Dolly Alderton https://amzn.to/4cFwY0NReally Good, Actually by Monica Heisey https://amzn.to/4cxNdNxThe Frozen River by Ariel Lawhon https://amzn.to/4dSRk7QOpen Book by Jessica Simpson https://amzn.to/4dQqflTThe Woman in Me by Britney Spears

Barbara Peters in conversation with Samantha Downing and Robin Harding

Robin Harding, Asia Editor of the Financial Times, is back in this annual podcast on what's shaping business news. We look at the impact of US-China relations, a new trajectory for Asian growth, how electric vehicles may reshape industry… and more.See www.mckinsey.com/privacy-policy for privacy information

Global Policy Watch #1: The Road Not Taken Insights on policy issues making news around the world— Pranay KotasthaneEast Asian economic success is one of India’s favourite public policy discussion themes. Regardless of the facts, we have strengthened our own beliefs based on that transformation. For instance, many Indians are convinced that South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan became powerhouses through well-executed industrial policies in which governments threw their full weight behind specific domestic sectors and companies. East Asian examples are often used to justify India’s protectionist trade measures, a business environment that places higher compliance requirements on foreign companies, and generous pro-business subsidies. In this debate, we forget the role of two other crucial factors. One, the role of geopolitics. As Arthur Kroeber’s notes in China’s Economy, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan were part of the US alliance structure and benefited immensely from programs of technical assistance, educational exchanges, and access to the American market.Two, what’s more significant is that South Korea’s transformation as an export powerhouse predates industrial policy measures. Like India, South Korea too had a scarce foreign exchange reserves problem. Like India, it too opted initially for trade and monetary policies ostensibly aimed at preserving these reserves. But starting 1964-65, South Korean leaders—nudged by the US—were able to reimagine a future in which their foreign exchange problem was to be ameliorated not by import controls but by increasing exports.To explain the freakish similarities and differences between the paths India and South Korea chose, read these excerpts from an excellent NBER paper From Hermit Kingdom to Miracle on the Han: Policy Decisions that Transformed South Korea into an Export Powerhouse by Douglas A. Irwin. The economic problems of the 1950s South Korea were uncannily similar to India:Korea’s economic policy in the 1950s was built around “the three lows”—low grain prices, low interest rates, and a low price of foreign exchange—and the controls needed to maintain them. Although the controls led to perpetual shortages of grain, capital, and foreign currency, each had a rationale. The government sought low grain prices to keep the cost of living down, relying on grain imports from the United States made available through PL 480 (food assistance) grants. The government maintained interest rate ceilings, ostensibly to help borrowers and promote investment, but negative real interest rates meant there was little incentive to save, diminishing investment and financial development. The government kept the price of foreign exchange artificially low to make imported goods, particularly capital goods, cheaper than they otherwise would have been.The shortage of foreign exchange led the government to introduce import controls to conserve foreign exchange reserves. Import licensing was introduced in 1946 to impede the purchase of nonessential foreign goods. In 1949, the Ministry of Finance began preparing a quarterly foreign exchange budget to determine how export earnings and aid inflows should be allocated in purchasing imports.The overvalued currency had a devastating effect on the country’s merchandise exports, which declined from $40 million in 1953 to just $16 million in 1958, a year in which imports were $370 million.South Korea too had an aborted devaluation attempt in the 1960s. The government devalued the won in two steps… The February 1961 devaluation was made in conjunction with a major reform of the foreign exchange system. The government rationalized the complicated multiple exchange rate system and began to relax import controls, paving the way for a fully unified exchange rate in June of that year.The devaluation increased exports significantly, but caused pain in the short term.In the first two months of 1961, prices rose 15 percent, and industrial production, which depended on cheap imported intermediate goods, fell.21 The devaluation hurt the political fortunes of the deeply divided government, which went through several major cabinet reshuffles during its short period in power and never enjoyed strong public support. The government was widely seen as inept, and public dissatisfaction with the country’s situation led to protests. After renewed political unrest and street demonstrations by students, a military coup overthrew the nine-month-old government on May 16, 1961.Changing tack, the incoming military rulers opted for atmanirbharta:The government envisioned state investment to build up heavy and chemical industries to increase national security and end the country’s dependence on US aid and foreign sources of supply. Given Korea’s enormous trade deficit and tiny export base, the government thought it easier to replace imports by expanding domestic production of those goods rather than to try to make up the gap by exporting more. The plan was to make the country self-reliant in its ability to pay for its imports, but the plans were formulated “without due consideration of Korea’s short supply of capital and technology,”This plan failed as each of these required more foreign exchange, which was the limiting condition. Then came a food crisis.The US also withheld economic aid from Korea, including PL480 food assistance at a time when food was in desperately short supply. In April 1963, Korea agreed to a new stabilization program to reduce the budget deficit, in the hope of bringing inflation under control. The government also agreed to dismantle trade controls and eventually adopt a floating exchange rate. Aid was released, but by July it was clear the government was not living up to the agreement.Things begin to change after elections in 1963. Eventually, the government went ahead with another devaluation, and a slew of decisive policy reforms in 1964-65.In essence, Kim believed that the government would have to get rid of “the three lows”—the low exchange rate, the low-interest rate, and low grain prices—as well as reform the foreign exchange system. The devaluation had already raised the exchange rate; getting rid of low interest rates and low grain prices would be deeply unpopular. Said one leader: "“Eventually, the entire business world will protest the policies. Plus, the National Assemblymen will join them and intelligent media editorialists will criticize the policies . . . it will be very difficult.”The government began promoting slogans such as “exports alone promise a way to economic self-reliance” and “exports as the yardstick to measure the sum of our national strength”The economy started reaping the rewards even before the industrial policy kicked in:“The export success of the 1960s and 1970s was basically due to the removal of impediments to trade, namely, the complicated foreign exchange system and the negative effects on export of the protectionist import policy,” “Once the impediments were removed, the economy began realizing its huge export potential, which had been left unexploited until then."So next time someone sings paeans about South Korea’s industrial policy success, do tell them aap chronology samajhiye.Thank you for reading Anticipating the Unintended. This post is public so feel free to share it.The global outpouring of respect and admiration for Shinzō Abe is proof of his outsized impact on Japan and the world. To put his economic contributions in perspective, here’s an edited version of RSJ’s essay on Abenomics from edition #69.Global Policy Watch #2: Abe Yaar! Lessons From 'Japanification' (From our Archives) Insights on policy issues making news around the world—RSJShinzō Abe, the longest-serving Japanese PM ever, stepped down from office last week. His second term which began in late 2012 was marked by his prescription for reviving the Japanese economy. The world called it Abenomics.Through a mix of unconventional monetary policy, robust fiscal stimulus, and structural reforms to boost growth, Abenomics was seen as a marked departure from the timid response that characterised the previous regimes. Abe was determined to jolt Japan out of the economic morass it had dug itself in for over a quarter-century since 1990. We will discuss Abenomics and what lessons it holds for us in more detail later. But let’s go back to the lost decades of Japan that gave us the pejorative term ‘Japanification’ and understand what happened during that time.Bubble, Bust And No RecoveryJapan was the miracle economy following WW2, benefitting from U.S. largesse in infrastructure spending, government investments in technology and research, a rise in entrepreneurship and an increase in factor productivity for over three decades. Low-interest rates and all-round prosperity in the 80s led to an asset bubble. The stock market and real estate valuations went through the roof on the back of speculations and easy credit policy. There’s an urban legend (or truth?) of three sq. mts. of land near the royal palace being sold at US$ 60,000. That meant the appraisal value of the palace was more than the state of California then. In little over 25 years from 1960, the land value went up by 5000 per cent in Tokyo and other major cities. By the end of 1989, the Nikkei index was at its historic high of 39,000. This was a bubble and like all bubbles, it popped in 1990.Japan hasn’t recovered since. The obvious reasons were discerned immediately. The policy response to the bubble was to increase interest rates and quell speculation. But as the equity market and real estate prices crashed, borrowers who had overleveraged themselves were trapped. A debt crisis soon followed with widespread loan defaults. The contagion now engulfed Japanese banks which were staring at a huge pile of NPAs. The credit dried up, investments fell, and the growth slowed dramatically. The sentiment turned negative and the consumers cut down on spending. This began a deflationary cycle.The Bank of Japan (BoJ) was slow to respond and the deflation spiral set in. Why would you spend today when you know the prices would be lower in future? BoJ began cutting interest rates and brought it below 1 per cent by the mid-90s to spur investment. But these actions weren’t coordinated with a fiscal response. The hike in consumption tax in 1996 meant the further dampening of consumption sentiments. The loan default crisis led to the collapse of three banks in the mid-90s. By 1997, as BoJ and the government were getting their act together, the Asian financial crisis dealt a crippling blow to the economy. This set it back for another three years.What Went Wrong?Krugman in 1998 argued the lost decade of the 90s was because of monetary policy failure. His view was the BoJ should have publicly taken a high inflation target that would have avoided deflation and prevented interest rates from going down to zero. Of course, this is supported by theory. A higher inflation target anchors inflation expectation at a higher number and this increased expectation, in turn, leads to higher inflation because of the forward-looking aspect of the aggregate supply equation. Further, the increase in inflation expectation would reduce the real interest rate because it takes time for the nominal interest rate to reach its long-term level. In the short term, this reduced real interest rate stimulates growth which in turn increases inflation. A kind of a virtuous cycle sets in.Anyway, this wasn’t done by BoJ. The other option was to reduce the interest rate to zero quickly and provide substantial monetary stimulus quickly to check loss in output. A combination of a high inflation target (as suggested by Krugman) and monetary easing policy could have possibly worked.Between 2001-06, the BoJ went on a quantitative easing overdrive purchasing long-term Japanese government bonds. After the global financial crisis of 2008-09, the BoJ extended this programme to purchase private-sector financial assets including corporate bonds, ETFs (therefore equity in private companies), CPs and invest in real estate investment trusts (REITs). This had an impact on financial markets with stock markets rising, a fall in bond yields and an increase in corporate bond issuances. But this expansionary policy came at a cost. The debt to GDP ratio which was around 60 per cent in the 90s went up to 240 per cent by 2012. However, all of these measures didn’t move the needle on inflation. It is possible a higher purchase of private risky assets like corporate bonds and commercial paper instead of government bond would have spurred growth and raised inflation expectations. But that was not to be.Separately, the lack of coordination between monetary and fiscal policies hurt the economy. There were multiple increases in taxes to balance the budget while the monetary policy was working to increase consumption sentiments. Lastly, there was a lack of clear communication to manage expectations among the public about long-term inflation, interest rates or growth. Forward-looking guidance by the central bank on these parameters provides assurance to market participants more so when the financial system is weakened by high NPAs and general risk aversion. A recent example of this was seen when the US Fed indicated it will purchase corporate bonds as part of its stimulus during the pandemic. The planned purchase announcement itself did the trick in raising bond prices before the Fed actually bought a single one of them.Abenomics In PlayShinzo Abe and BoJ Chairman Haruhiko Kuroda assimilated the learnings from the lost quarter-century to formulate the ‘three arrows’ of Abenomics in 2013. The three arrows were:A monetary policy based on a qualitative and quantitative easing (QQE) framework with a 2 per cent inflation target, significant purchase of long-duration government securities and private risky assets, expansion of BoJ balance sheet and upfront guidance on these numbers. BoJ promised to double its monetary base to 54 per cent of the GDP by 2014.  A robust fiscal policy that increases absolute government spending on areas like public infrastructure, welfare for its ageing population and servicing the debt. This was to be done in close coordination with the monetary policy actions.Structural reforms to spur growth and private investment. This includes lower corporate tax, increase in participation of women in the labour force, more immigration and acceptance of high-skilled foreign workers, more inbound tourism to Japan and championing of free trade (TTP), lower FDI barriers and global liberal order to counter China.You couldn’t fault their prescription based on what they learned from their past. Abenomics wasn’t a radically new construct but bringing the three arrows together, setting targets for them and then communicating it clearly, indicated Abe meant business. Japan needed to be jolted into a path of recovery and this was the way to do it. The salience of Abenomics grew as more economies, including US and EU, followed the path of QE to stimulate growth and manage financial stability.Did It work?Well, it is a mixed bag. The primary objective of the 3 arrows was to ‘warm up’ the economy to an extent that spurs demand and get the investment cycle going. On that count, it is a mixed bag. It has seen limited success in increasing women's labour force participation, more immigration and in keeping debt to GDP at a near-constant level of 240 per cent (pre-Covid) despite the increase in the monetary base. It’s not an unqualified success. The counterfactual, of course, can be asked. Could Japan be worse off today if not for Abenomics?I think it would.Lessons From AbenomicsSo, what are the lessons learnt from 7 years of Abenomics in Japan? Robin Harding writing for the Financial Times has six lessons from Abenomics for the world struggling with ‘Japanification’. I am paraphrasing below:   Monetary policy through the massive purchase of government securities and private assets works. The ‘bazooka’ of 2013 had a positive impact on the Japanese economy – stock markets boomed, credit uptake went up and unemployment fell.Despite the promise of coordinated monetary and fiscal actions, Abe couldn’t keep fiscal hawks down. The rise in consumption tax from 5 to 8 per cent in 2014 worked counter to the efforts in increasing consumption. The economy went into a recession. Another increase last year to 10 per cent had the same impact.         Communication and future guidance on targets didn’t materialise. The promised inflation target of 2 per cent was never met and the consumption tax hikes meant the premise of raising expectations and letting it do the heavy lifting in raising inflation didn’t work.Expectations management works if you meet the expectations. Beyond a point, you need to intervene directly to meet your targets. The key commitments of Abenomics were never kept and soon the market stopped responding to the BoJ plans of further easing.Stimulus doesn’t cause an increase in public debt to GDP ratio going up. We have discussed this already. It remained range-bound at 240 per cent.Structural reforms didn’t cut to the key issues confronting Japanese society – an ageing population leading to a fall in total factor productivity, a disappointed younger generation carrying the burden through levies and taxes on income, a strong hierarchical working style stymieing innovation and a reluctance to embrace large scale immigration to get out of this rut (an advantage so far for the US).Course Advertisement: Admissions for the Sept 2022 cohort of Takshashila’s Graduate Certificate in Public Policy programme are now open! Apply by 23rd July for a 10% early bird scholarship. Visit this link to apply.Global Policy Watch #3: How Social Media Expands our Reference Networks Global policy issues relevant to India— Pranay KotasthaneIn edition #173, I argued there are three meta-mechanisms that make social media a powerful instrument: reference network expansion, Overton Window Expansion, and disproportional rewards for extreme content due to information overload.This article generated an interesting conversation on social media (where else!). One of the discussion points was: what are the precise ways through which reference networks expand? Here’s an initial answer.To rewind a bit, our reference network comprises “people whose beliefs and behaviour matter for our behaviour”. Social media expands our reference networks as people worldwide can now instantly and repeatedly influence our perceptions. It’s common to misinterpret reference network expansion as echo chamber-isation. However, there’s something much deeper going on.A reference network expands when an individual associates herself with a new set of individuals. This association could be of two types: comparative and preferential. In the first type, we compare ourselves with others who we imagine to be similar to us. Social media expands the number of people who we can compare ourselves with. In the second, the focal point is our preferences. Our behaviour is determined by the likes and dislikes of others we encounter on social media.In the framework above, I have mapped these associations with likely impacts on our behaviours. It explains to a large extent how even domestic issues have global resonance, and why people are willing to support or hate people they’ve never met outside their social media apps.From this perspective, echo chambers span two kinds of preferential associations (“others like what I like”, and “others hate what I hate”). There are four other mechanisms through which reference network expansion takes place.Are there other ways you have seen reference network expansions happening on social media? Do leave a comment.HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters[Report] State of Discrimination Report by Bhuvana Anand and Sarvnipun Kaur analyses all the state-level legal barriers to women's employment in India. [Book] For those interested in community building, Peter Block’s Community: The Structure of Belonging has excellent insights. The portal abundantcommunity.com too has some handy resources. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com

More than a dozen pupils have been killed in a shooting at a school in Texas. It happened at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde. The 18-year-old suspect is dead, believed to have been killed by police officers. US President Joe Biden has ordered the US flag to be flown at half-mast until sunset on Saturday 28th May following the mass shooting. Elsewhere, the commodities giant Glencore has agreed to plead guilty to corruption charges in the United States and the UK. It will pay more than $1 billion to end a five-year investigation into corporate malpractice. It was accused of directing traders to fix the oil market as well as using bribes to secure business in half a dozen countries, mostly in Africa. Rahul Tandon is joined by Lori Ann LaRocco, who's Senior Editor at CNBC Business News and author of “Trade War- Containers Don't Lie, Navigating the Bluster”. He also speaks with the Financial Times Tokyo Bureau Chief, Robin Harding about the big business issues of the day.

Oil giant BP booked bumper underlying profits despite a big loss on its exit from Russia. We explore whether oil firms are likely to face windfall taxes on their profits, after Italy increased such a tax, with Dr Sandy Hager, a political economist at City, University of London. Leaked documents in the US have suggested the Supreme Court could be heading towards revoking the historic Roe vs Wade judgement from the 1970s that legalised abortion in the country. Just prior to that news and the political outcry that's followed, Amazon has more quietly told staff it would contribute up to $4,000 in travel expenses for employees seeking to get abortions, as well as certain other treatments. The move will help workers in states like Texas where most abortions have now been illegalised. We hear from Anthony Johndrow, who advises businesses, including tech firms, on their social issue positioning. Also in the programme, the BBC's Mike Johnson examines why Turkey is seeking to rebrand itself with its Turkish name, Türkiye. Ed Butler is joined throughout the programme by Sarah Birke, The Economist's Bureau Chief in Mexico and Robin Harding, Tokyo bureau chief for the Financial Times. Picture: General view of a BP gas station. Credit: Oleg Nikishin/Getty Images

Read more > Listen to the podcast (duration: 38:31) > What are the business stories Asian executives should pay attention to in the year ahead? In this episode, leading editors from the Financial Times and Reuters discuss the issues in Asia likely to dominate headlines. Join the conversation with Robin Harding, Asia Editor at the Financial Times; Kevin Krolicki, Asia Regional Editor at Reuters; and host, Jonathan Woetzel, Senior Partner, McKinsey & Company.See www.mckinsey.com/privacy-policy for privacy information

What are the business stories Asian executives should pay attention to in the year ahead? In this episode, leading editors from the Financial Times and Reuters discuss the issues in Asia likely to dominate headlines. Join the conversation with Robin Harding, Asia Editor at the Financial Times; Kevin Krolicki, Asia Regional Editor at Reuters; and host, Jonathan Woetzel, Senior Partner, McKinsey & Company. Read more > Listen to the podcast (duration: 38:31) >

The embattled Chinese real estate firm Evergrande reaches the deadline for interest payments on its bonds – will Beijing step in to shore up the company? We speak to Sara Hsu, Associate Professor of Economics at the State University of New York. Erin Delmore is in Berlin to take us through the last days of campaigning in Germany's general election, the vote will decide who replaces Angela Merkel after 16 years as Chancellor. Speakers at the UN General Assembly address the inequalities of Covid vaccine distribution around the world, America's FDA withdraws nearly a million e-cigarettes from the market, and the European Commission wants all smart phones to have the same type of charging socket to cut down on waste, but will manufacturers go for it? Throughout the programme we're joined by Robin Harding of the Financial Times and Hayley Woodin, editor of Business in Vancouver.

Several popular websites were sent offline due to a problem connecting users, or a DNS error. Companies affected included AirBnB, McDonald's, HSBC and British Airways. We speak to Jason Crabtree, founder and CEO of cybersecurity company Qomplex, who explains what happened. More and more people in the UK are being notified - or 'pinged' - by a Covid tracing app that they should self-isolate, causing labour shortages for many industries and food shortages in supermarkets. The BBC's technology reporter Rory Cellan-Jones explains the technology behind the app. Also in the programme; a day before the opening ceremony of the Tokyo Olympics, the BBC's Sasha Twining reports on what the event has cost Japan, and how much of that money it is likely to recoup. Plus, we hear from Caroline Casey, who has successfully persuaded the chief executives of 500 major corporations to commit their boards to disability inclusion, and is discussing the achievement at this year's One Young World Summit. Sasha Twining is joined throughout the programme by Andy Uhler, reporter for our sister programme Marketplace on American public radio in Austin, Texas, and by Robin Harding, Tokyo bureau chief for the FT. (Picture: A computer keyboard. Picture credit: Getty)

Korea24 – 2021.06.23. (Wednesday) - News Briefing: After a year-long delay, Tokyo is gearing up to launch the Olympic Games in exactly 30 days from Wednesday as countries around the globe continue to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. (Eunice Kim) - In-Depth News Analysis Part 1: With just a month away, Robin Harding, Tokyo Bureau Chief for the Financial Times, gives a preview of the upcoming Games with organizers pushing ahead as concerns still linger over the pandemic. - In-Depth News Analysis Part 2: Heather Barr, interim Co-Director of the Women’s Rights Division at the Human Rights Watch, talks about her report that was published by the Human Rights Watch that addressed digital sex crimes in South Korea. She discusses the report’s key findings and what needs to be done to tackle the issue. Korea Trending with Walter Lee: Some have been using a computer program to gain a major advantage when reserving their COVID-19 vaccinations(잔여백신 예약에 ‘매크로’까지 동원…‘백신 불평등’ 논란), police reveal the identity of a man accused of multiple sex-related crimes(미성년자 성착취물 6천954개 보관•유포 26세 최찬욱 신상 공개), and South Korean UFC fighter Jung Chan-sung, aka the Korean Zombie, is handed a medical suspension due to injuries sustained from his latest bout(정찬성, 최대 6개월 UFC 출전 정지). - Korea Book Club: Barry Welsh shares Hwang Biori’s(황벼리) “The Weight of a Picture(사진 한 장의무게),” an experimental indie comic book that tackles loneliness, friendship, and the difficulty of making connections with others through the interconnecting stories of a girl and a boy. - Morning Edition Preview: Mark shares a piece from the Korea Times that delves into the long-standing generational conflict over free subway rides for senior citizens. He then shares a Korea Herald story on a sound immersion play being held at the Sejong Center for the Performing Arts.

An official report says having no spectators at the games is the 'least risky' option. Robin Harding, Tokyo bureau chief of the Financial Times, talks us through the arguments on both sides. Also in the programme, ByteDance, the parent company of social media app TikTok, has seen its earnings more than double in 2020. Chris Stokel-Walker is a journalist and author of TikTok Boom, and explains its success. We have an in-depth report on reductions to government international aid budgets in some parts of the world. Chiku Lweno works in Tanzania for the charity Children in Crossfire and tells us about the impact on her organisation of a cut in support from UK aid. Susanna Moorehead of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development makes the case for boosting aid spending. And Ben Harris-Quinney of the UK conservative think tank the Bow Group argues that the British government should spend its money closer to home. Plus, we meet a doggy day care specialist who has seen a surge in interest for her services, as people who bought dogs during lockdown start returning to work.

Misha and John are joined by Robin Harding, Tokyo bureau chief for the Financial Times. They discuss the summit between President Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Suga, their plans to deepen the US-Japan alliance, the threat from China, cooperation on 5G, and the future of Japanese politics.

Misha and John are joined by Robin Harding, Tokyo bureau chief for the Financial Times. They discuss the summit between President Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Suga, their plans to deepen the US-Japan alliance, the threat from China, cooperation on 5G, and the future of Japanese politics.

Korea24 – 2021.01.27. (Wednesday) - News Briefing: The South Korean government ensured both Washington and Beijing are on the same page when it comes to North Korea's denuclearization. President Moon Jae-in held telephone talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping while the outgoing and incoming top diplomats from Seoul and Washington held their first phone talks on the matter as well. (Eunice Kim) - In-Depth News Analysis Part 1: Dr. Simon Clarke, associate professor in cellular microbiology at the University of Reading, delves into the various types of COVID-19 strains, their threat, and the vaccine's effectiveness against them. He also gives his thoughts on the possibility of the variants prolonging the world's battle against the pandemic. - In-Depth News Analysis Part 2: Robin Harding, Tokyo Bureau Chief of the Financial Times, shares his thoughts on the ongoing doubt surrounding the Tokyo Olympics on if they're being held after being delayed a year. He also discusses possible scenarios Japan and the International Olympic Committee(IOC) could take. - Korea Trending with Alex Sigrist: KDCA Chief Jeong Eun-kyeong tests negative for COVID-19(정은경 질병관리청장 코로나19 음성), ruling Democratic Party Chairman Lee Nak-yon apologizes to the victim of the late Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon(이낙연, 박원순 피해자에 사과), and the Korea Music Copyright Association(KOMCA) reveals 25 new artists to be added as full-time members(한국음악저작권협회 정회원 승격 명단). - Korea Book Club: Literary Translator Anton Hur shares four poetry books that were reissued by the book publisher Moonji(문학과 지성사). Anton talks about the works by four beloved female poets from the ‘80s to now: "Love in Our Time(이 시대의 사랑)" by Choi Seung-ja(최승자), "A Faraway House Where I Go Alone(혼자 가는 먼 집)," by Huh Sukyung(허수경), "Written in Cursive(그리하여 흘려 쓴 것들)" by Lee Jenny(이제니), and "I Put the Evening in a Drawer(서랍에 저녁을 넣어 두었다)" by Han Kang(한강). - Morning Edition Preview: Mark shares a story from the Korea Times that covers special markets in Yeongdeungpo District aimed to help those feeling financial strain due to the pandemic, and a Korea Herald piece that talks about an English edition of a book by the National Museum of Modern and Contemporary Art(MMCA).

The US state of Georgia is going to the polls for a second-round vote and at stake is whether President-elect Joe Biden's Democrats control the Senate. In an extended report, the BBC's Fergus Nicoll looks at the forces in play behind the electioneering. Also in the programme, the World Bank has said that any recovery in the global economy is dependent on the roll out of successful vaccines and has predicted 4% growth in the coming year - we hear from the BBC's Andrew Walker. Plus, Singapore has confirmed its law enforcers will be able to access the country's coronavirus contact tracing data to help criminal investigations. And in Russia women are driving the metro trains - after a 40 year ban - although there's still a list of jobs women are not advised to do; we hear from Olga Ivshina from the BBC's Russian Service. Plus, this summer, festival goers around the world stayed at home due to coronavirus restrictions so what will happen this year? We hear from Chief Executive of UK Music, Jamie Njoku-Goodwin, who's been giving evidence to members of the British Parliament on the state of the music industry. And we're joined throughout the programme by two guests on opposite sides of the world; Erin Delmore, political correspondent in New York and Robin Harding, the Financial Times' correspondent in Tokyo. (Picture of stickers for voters in Atlanta, Georgia by Megan Varner via Getty Images).

US stocks surged to new highs on Tuesday, alongside global equities, as the path for a smooth transition of power in the US cleared, French tax authorities have begun demanding millions of euros in extra tax from US tech giants, and an ECB executive says that eurozone banks could be allowed to pay dividends again if their balance sheets are in order. Plus, the FT’s Robin Harding explains why Japanese stamps are getting in the way of the country’s digitisation efforts. US stocks set record high as investors look to new administrationhttps://www.ft.com/content/433048a5-c489-4ddd-aebd-d56fb8f3edfcUS tech companies get digital tax demands from French authoritiesft.com/content/2cfe3d07-7e69-4f57-b634-8b6002f967cb ECB to lift ban on bank dividends next year if balance sheets strong enoughft.com/content/62c9e91e-ce88-41cb-aa23-de67687cdeef?edit=trueJapan to ditch ‘hanko’ seal in drive to digitise bureaucracyhttps://www.ft.com/content/e05b0e61-1aa6-4e96-822b-538f1a33d806 See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

A report backed by US Democratic lawmakers has urged changes that could lead to the break-up of some of America's biggest tech companies. The recommendation follows a 16-month congressional investigation into Google, Amazon, Facebook and Apple. The BBC's James Clayton explains what's behind the report. Also in the programme, US President Donald Trump has said he is ending negotiations over a Covid-19 relief bill, and will only resume talks after the election. A significant number of bars in Paris have been forced to close for the next two weeks, as journalist Sophie Pedder explains. We take a look at how the Coronavirus pandemic is hitting low-income students, and might provoke long-term changes in the education system overall, with Eloy Ortiz Oakley of California Community Colleges. And a 400-strong ensemble of freelance musicians has played outside the UK Parliament to highlight the plight of the music industry during the current pandemic. Violinist Nicola Benedetti attended to support to the performers, and explains what they are trying to achieve. All through the programme we'll be joined by political reporter Erin Delmore in New York and the Financial Times' Robin Harding in Tokyo. (Picture: Amazon's Jeff Bezos, Apple's Tim Cook, Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg and Google's Sundar Pichai. Picture credit: Getty Images/EPA/Reuters.)

This newsletter is really a public policy thought-letter. While excellent newsletters on specific themes within public policy already exist, this thought-letter is about frameworks, mental models, and key ideas that will hopefully help you think about any public policy problem in imaginative ways. It seeks to answer just one question: how do I think about a particular public policy problem/solution?Welcome to the mid-week edition in which we write essays on a public policy theme. The usual public policy review comes out on weekends.PS: If you enjoy listening instead of reading, we have this edition available as an audio narration courtesy the good folks at Ad-Auris. If you have any feedback, please send it to us. Listen in podcast appShinzō Abe, the longest-serving Japanese PM ever, stepped down from office last week. His second term that began in late 2012 was marked by his prescription for reviving Japanese economy. The world called it Abenomics. Through a mix of unconventional monetary policy, robust fiscal stimulus, and structural reforms to boost growth, Abenomics was seen as a marked departure from the timid response that characterised the previous regimes. Abe was determined to jolt Japan out of the economic morass it had dug itself in for over a quarter-century since 1990. We will discuss Abenomics and what lessons it holds for us in more detail later. But let’s go back to the lost decades of Japan that gave us the pejorative term ‘Japanification’ and understand what happened during that time.Bubble, Bust And No RecoveryJapan was the miracle economy following WW2, benefitting from U.S. largesse in infrastructure spending, government investments in technology and research, rise in entrepreneurship and increase in factor productivity for over three decades. Low-interest rates and all-round prosperity in the 80s led to an asset bubble. The stock market and real estate valuations went through the roof on the back of speculations and easy credit policy. There’s an urban legend (or truth?) of three sq.mts. of land near the royal palace being sold at US$ 60,000. That meant the appraisal value of the palace was more than the state of California then. In little over 25 years from 1960, the land value went up by 5000 per cent in Tokyo and other major cities. By the end of 1989, the Nikkei index was at its historic high of 39,000. This was a bubble and like all bubbles, it popped in 1990.Japan hasn’t recovered since. The obvious reasons were discerned immediately. The policy response to the bubble was to increase interest rates and quell speculation. But as the equity market and real estate prices crashed, borrowers who had overleveraged themselves were trapped. A debt crisis soon followed with widespread loan defaults. The contagion now engulfed Japanese banks who were staring at a huge pile of NPAs. The credit dried up, investments fell, and the growth slowed dramatically. The sentiment turned negative and the consumers cut down on spending. This began a deflationary cycle. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) was slow to respond and the deflation spiral set in. Why would you spend today when you know the prices would be lower in future? BoJ began cutting interest rates and brought it below 1 per cent by mid-90s to spur investment. But these actions weren’t coordinated with a fiscal response. The hike in consumption tax in 1996 meant the further dampening of consumption sentiments. The loan default crisis led to the collapse of three banks in mid-90s. By 1997, as BoJ and the government were getting their act together, the Asian financial crisis dealt a crippling blow to the economy. This set it back for another three years. What Went Wrong?Krugman in 1998 argued the lost decade of the 90s was because of monetary policy failure. His view was the BoJ should have publicly taken a high inflation target that would have avoided a deflation and prevented interest rates from going down to zero. Of course, this is supported by theory. A higher inflation target anchors inflation expectation at a higher number and this increased expectation in turn leads to higher inflation because of the forward-looking aspect of the aggregate supply equation. Further, the increase in inflation expectation would reduce the real interest rate because it takes time for nominal interest rate to reach its long-term level. In the short-term, this reduced real interest rate stimulates growth which in turn increases inflation. A kind of a virtuous cycle sets in. Anyway, this wasn’t done by BoJ. The other option was to reduce the interest rate to zero quickly and provide substantial monetary stimulus quickly to check loss in output. A combination of a high inflation target (as suggested by Krugman) and monetary easing policy could have possibly worked.Between 2001-06, the BoJ went on a quantitative easing overdrive purchasing long-term Japanese government bonds. After the global financial crisis of 2008-09, the BoJ extended this programme to purchase private sector financial assets including corporate bonds, ETFs (therefore equity in private companies), CPs and invest in real estate investment trusts (REITs). This had an impact on financial markets with stock markets rising, fall in bond yields and increase in corporate bond issuances. But this expansionary policy came at a cost. The debt to GDP ratio which was around 60 per cent in the 90s went up to 240 per cent by 2012. However, all of these measures didn’t move the needle on inflation. It is possible a higher purchase of private risky assets like corporate bonds and commercial paper instead of government bond would have spurred growth and raised inflation expectations. But that was not to be. Separately, the lack of coordination between monetary and fiscal policies hurt the economy. There were multiple increases in taxes to balance the budget while the monetary policy was working to increase consumption sentiments. Lastly, there was a lack of clear communication to manage expectations among the public about long-term inflation, interest rates or growth. A forward-looking guidance by the central bank on these parameters provides assurance to market participants more so when the financial system is weakened by high NPAs and general risk aversion. A recent example of this was seen when the US Fed indicated it will purchase corporate bonds as part of its stimulus during the pandemic. The planned purchase announcement itself did the trick in raising bond prices before Fed actually bought a single one of them. Abenomics In PlayShinzo Abe and BoJ Chairman Haruhiko Kuroda assimilated the learnings from the lost quarter-century to formulate the ‘three arrows’ of the Abenomics in 2013. The three arrows were:A monetary policy based on qualitative and quantitative easing (QQE) framework with a 2 per cent inflation target, significant purchase of long-duration government securities and private risky assets, expansion of BoJ balance sheet and upfront guidance on these numbers. BoJ promised to double its monetary base to 54 per cent of the GDP by 2014.  A robust fiscal policy that increases absolute government spending on areas like public infrastructure, welfare for its ageing population and servicing the debt. This was to be done in close coordination with the monetary policy actions.Structural reforms to spur growth and private investment. This includes lower corporate tax, increase in participation of women in the labour force, more immigration and acceptance of high-skilled foreign workers, more inbound tourism to Japan and championing free trade (TTP), lower FDI barriers and global liberal order to counter China.You couldn’t fault their prescription based on what they learnt from their past. Abenomics wasn’t a radically new construct but in bringing the three arrows together, setting targets for them and then communicating it clearly indicated Abe meant business. Japan needed to be jolted into a path of recovery and this was the way to do it. The salience of Abenomics grew as more economies, including US and EU, followed the path of QE to stimulate growth and manage financial stability. Did It work? Well, it is a mixed bag. The inflation in Japan remained persistently below 1 per cent. The primary objective of the 3 arrows was to ‘warm up’ the economy to an extent that spurs demand and gets the investment cycle going. On that count, it failed. It has seen limited success in increasing women labour force participation, more immigration and in keeping debt to GDP at a near-constant level of 240 per cent (pre-Covid) despite the increase in monetary base. It’s not an unqualified success. The counterfactual, of course, can be asked. Could Japan be worse off today if not for Abenomics? I think it would. Lessons From AbenomicsSo, what are the lessons learnt from 7 years of Abenomics in Japan? Robin Harding writing for the Financial Times has six lessons from Abenomics for the world struggling with ‘Japanification’. I am paraphrasing below:   Monetary policy through massive purchase of government securities and private assets work. The ‘bazooka’ of 2013 had a positive impact on the Japanese economy – stock markets boomed, credit uptake went up and unemployment fell.Despite the promise of coordinated monetary and fiscal actions, Abe couldn’t keep fiscal hawks down. The rise in consumption tax from 5 to 8 per cent in 2014 worked counter to the efforts in increasing consumption. The economy went into a recession. Another increase last year to 10 per cent had the same impact.          Communication and future guidance on targets didn’t materialise. The promised inflation target of 2 per cent was never met and the consumption tax hikes meant the premise of raising expectations and letting it do the heavy lifting in raising inflation didn’t work. Expectations management works if you meet the expectations. Beyond a point, you need to intervene directly to meet your targets. The key commitments of Abenomics were never kept and soon the market stopped responding to the BoJ plans of further easing. Stimulus doesn’t cause an increase in public debt to GDP ratio going up. We have discussed this already. It remained range-bound at 240 per cent.Structural reforms didn’t cut to the key issues confronting Japanese society – an ageing population leading to a fall in total factor productivity, a disappointed younger generation carrying the burden through levies and taxes on income, strong hierarchical working style stymieing innovation and a reluctance to embrace large scale immigration to get out of this rut (an advantage so far for the US).Our LessonsThese are important lessons for India as we consider the options to revive growth after the pandemic. The fears of an increase in fiscal deficit and a rise in debt, lack of coordination between fiscal and monetary actions and poor communication or guidance to the public about the road ahead should look familiar to all of us. We can avoid these pitfalls and yet bank on the demographic dividend that’s still available to us to have a version of Abenomics work for us. The Abe playbook didn’t work for him, but it could work for his friend, PM Modi.HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters[Paper] Paul Krugman’s famous paper in six parts on Japan’s liquidity trap written in 1998 that explains the reasons for the lost decade.[Paper] Yoshino and Taghizadeh-Hesary in their ADB paper blame structural reasons of Japan for the lost decades. The paper counters the arguments of Paul Krugman that the Japanese economy is in a liquidity trap. For them Japan’s economic stagnation stems from a vertical IS curve rather than a liquidity trap. Get on the email list at publicpolicy.substack.com

Robin Harding is the Tokyo Bureau chief for the Financial Times. Until 2015, he was based in Washington D.C., covering the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Treasury, and the IMF for the Financial Times. Robin Macro Musings to talk about the Japanese economy, Abenomics, and the evolution of monetary policy in advanced economies over the past decade. Specifically, Robin and David discuss what the Bank of Japan’s point inflation target has in common with the Fed’s average inflation target, how the Bank of Japan found itself on the frontlines of innovation in monetary policy, and what the legacy of Abenomics portends for the future of monetary policy.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Robin’s Twitter: @RobinBHarding Robin’s Financial Times profile: https://www.ft.com/robin-harding   Related Links:   *Six Abenomics Lessons for a World Struggling with ‘Japanification’* by Robin Harding https://www.ft.com/content/9f4b1656-95a2-41e0-9c86-70f5b063796d   *Abe’s Tenure Marked by Trade Successes and Thwarted Ambitions* by Robin Harding https://www.ft.com/content/125378c8-073c-41b6-9aef-42b985c24784   *Leave Public Debt Worries for Another Day* by Robin Harding https://www.ft.com/content/691cb9f4-b53d-4429-bba4-03ca623c0077   *Methods of Policy Accommodation at the Interest-Rate Lower Bound* by Michael Woodford https://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/sympos/2012/mw.pdf?sm=jh083112-4   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

Brussels has threatened legal action over the UK Brexit treaty breach, and Citigroup will become the first big Wall Street Bank to be run by a female chief executive after appointing Jane Fraser as Mike Corbat’s successor. Plus, the FT’s Tokyo Bureau chief, Robin Harding, will give us a glimpse of what Japan might look like under prime ministerial frontrunner Yoshihide Suga. Citi becomes first big Wall Street bank to be run by female CEO https://www.ft.com/content/029264f1-f9a6-44c4-aa3e-86c7d50e3b55Suganomics’ from A to Z: policies of Japan’s PM frontrunnerhttps://www.ft.com/content/4741f081-cc97-4a46-bdcf-50cdb6336808Russian hackers are targeting both US parties, Microsoft sayshttps://www.ft.com/content/29476d87-0eab-4d2b-b3a6-58e3536807ef See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Robin Harding, Tokyo Bureau Chief, Financial Times, speaks to Mary about the Japanese response to the pandemic.

The coronavirus’ place of origin, Wuhan, has emerged from the world’s largest mass quarantine. Meanwhile, Japan is gambling that it can control the spread of coronavirus without a full lockdown. The FT’s correspondents on the ground in China and Japan, Don Weinland and Robin Harding, look at the differing stages these two places are at when it comes to the pandemic and the road ahead. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Patrick Jenkins and guests discuss the pressure Barclays has come under to curb fossil fuel financing, a radical plan to overhaul regional banking in Japan, and the latest US bank results. With special guest Christian Wilson from ShareAction. Contributors: Patrick Jenkins, financial editor, David Crow, banking editor, Robin Harding, Tokyo bureau chief, and Laura Noonan, US banking editor. Producer: Fiona Symon. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Lebanon pressed for Carlos Ghosn’s return one week before the former Nissan chairman escaped from Tokyo and Google Health has created a system that can identify breast cancer more accurately than radiologists. Plus, the FT’s Robin Harding explains why employees are gaining more power in Japan’s changing labour market. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Over the weekend, at the age of 92, one of the giants of American economic policy and former head of the US central bank Paul Volcker, died at his home in New York. He was perhaps best known for his dramatic hiking of interest rates in the early eighties to fight inflation. We explore his enduring legacy. Meanwhile, shares in Tullow Oil fell as much as 70% after the company announced a boardroom shake-up, scrapped its dividend and cut its production forecasts. Chief executive Paul McDade and exploration director Angus McCoss are stepping down immediately. We talk to Eklavya Gupte, senior editor of Europe and Africa News S&P Global Platts. Robin Harding, Tokyo Bureau Chief or Financial Times and Alexis Goldstein, an activist and financial reform advocate in Washington join the discussion. (Picture Credit: Getty Images)

Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe has called an early vote, but finds himself in a tougher fight than he bargained for after the emergence of a new opposition party led by the charismatic Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike. Gideon Rachman discusses this radical change in Japan's political landscape with Robin Harding and Roger Blitz See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Abe and Putin seek to end the 70-year-old territorial dispute over the Kuril archipelago, report Robin Harding and Kathrin Hille See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Tom Mitchell, Robin Harding and Simon Munday find the differing interpretations of events shown in textbooks and patriotic memorials are central to a new battle between nationalisms in China, Japan and Korea amid rising tensions in the region See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Students who fail in the first round of recruitment after leaving education in Japan are excluded from the country's lifetime employment system and condemned to a precarious life of temporary contracts and part time work. Robin Harding, FT Tokyo correspondent, talks to one of them See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Mitt Romney’s decision to choose Paul Ryan as his running mate has energised the race for the White House. Is it a masterstroke or a terrible mistake? Gideon Rachman is joined by Washington bureau chief Richard McGregor and US economics editor Robin Harding to discuss where the truth lies and what Mr Ryan really stands for. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.