Podcasts about evidence communication

This is a preview of The Huddle Breakdown Interview available at www.huddlebreakdown.comWe are thrilled to welcome Sir David Spiegelhalter to The Huddle Breakdown in the second installment of ‘The Huddle Breakdown Interview'. He talks to Alan and James in a wide ranging conversation including the role of luck in football.Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter FRS OBE is the closest thing the world of statistics has to a national treasure. His new book, The Art of Uncertainty: Living with Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck is an engaging and informative guide to living with uncertainty in a world that makes it inevitable. He is Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication in the Centre for Mathematical Sciences at the University of Cambridge. His bestselling book, The Art of Statistics, has been published in 11 languages. His current roles are as Non-Executive Director, UK Statistics Authority; Mathematical Futures expert board of the Royal Society; Member of the Statistics Expert Group for the Infected Blood Inquiry, 2019 – 2024; and Advisor; NHS Maternity and Neonatal Outcomes Group. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Often, we'll hear it said that we live in an uncertain world. Upon hearing this, most of us respond, well of course we do. But what does the term uncertainty actually mean when analysed under a scientific lens and how can we think about it more rationally. In this episode, we catch up with Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication in the Centre for Mathematical Sciences at the University of Cambridge, to talk about his new book, The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck. He tells us how uncertainty essentially comes from our personal relationships with the outside world, how to analyse and express probability more effectively and why philosophers argue that there are several different types of luck. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Do Doctors know best? How do you explain the risks and benefits of a medicine when you yourself don't really know? We chat to Maricarmen Climént, Research and Editorial Officer at Sense about Science about risk communication and how we best help patients to make better choices in the face of uncertainty?Maricarmen has a diverse background in science journalism and risk communication and holds a degree in Veterinary Medicine and an MSc in Science Communication. She also worked for four years at the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge, which we discuss. Do clinicians, deep down, think they know best? How can you teach risk to those whose career is predicated on supposedly knowing everything? How do you explain complexity in a simple way when the reality is rarely simple?Things are never certain and we discuss how clinicians can best navigate this difficult terrain and the importance of training in understanding and explaining risk. Dr Julian Treadwell's research we mention - " GPs' knowledge of the absolute benefits and harms of treatments is poor, with inaccuracies of a magnitude likely to meaningfully affect clinical decision-making and impede conversations with patients regarding treatment choices" https://bjgpopen.org/content/4/1/bjgpopen20X101016In our micro-discussion we delve into the paper “Bad news: how the media reported on an observational study about cardiovascular outcomes of COVID-19”. Are the media deliberately biased - or just incompetent - in how they report on scientific research? And how much are the papers' authors themselves to blame? https://ebm.bmj.com/content/early/2024/04/17/bmjebm-2023-112814. As with all of our guests, Maricarmen shares with us a Memory Evoking Medicine, a career anthem and book that has influenced her career or life.Sense about Science: https://senseaboutscience.org/. Spurious Correlations: http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations. Our new website is now live https://www.theauralapothecary.com/ and as well as being a searchable database of all episodes, we will be uploading transcripts and extra content for your enjoyment and education. Have a look and let us know what you think! Our latest blog posts talks about our first live public show - ‘Music, Memories and Medicines' - have a read here; https://www.theauralapothecary.com/blog/the-three-apothecaries-music-medicines-and-memories/. To get in touch follow us on Twitter and Instagram @auralapothecary or email us at auralapothecarypod@gmail.com . Don't forget to rate us and comment wherever you have got this podcast from. You can listen to the Aural Apothecary playlist here; https://open.spotify.com/playlist/3OsWj4w8sxsvuwR9zMXgn5?si=tiHXrQI7QsGtSQwPyz1KBg You can view the Aural Apothecary Library here;  https://litalist.com/shelf/view-bookcase?publicId=KN6E3O

Ty Tashiro (@tytashiro) is an author and relationship expert. He wrote Awkward: The Science of Why We're Socially Awkward and Why That's Awesome and The Science of Happily Ever After . His work has been featured at the New York Times, Time.com, TheAtlantic.com, NPR, Sirius XM Stars radio, and VICE. He received his Ph.D. in Psychology from the University of Minnesota, has been an award-winning professor at the University of Maryland and University of Colorado, and has addressed TED@NYC, Harvard Business School, MIT's Media Lab, and the American Psychological Association. Sir David Spiegelhalter (@d_spiegel) is the Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication and has dedicated his work to improving the way that quantitative evidence is used in society. He is the former President of the Royal Statistical Society as well as a three-time former guest on Stats and Stories.

How can we make sense of what we're told about risk? We're bombarded with messages on subjects ranging from COVID to the economy from people that range from genuine experts to those with no expertise but strong opinions. On this episode, I'm speaking to Professor David Spiegelhalter.David is Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication within the Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics at Cambridge University. The Centre is dedicated to improving the way that quantitative evidence is used in society. Listeners in the UK will almost certainly have seen or heard David. Since the start of the pandemic he's been a regular fixture on TV and radio, helping to make sense of the things we're being told about the virus. In a world of self-appointed experts whose only qualification is from the University of YouTube and untrustworthy politicians telling us they're "following the science", he's been a voice of clarity and common sense. In our discussion, we explore what drives David's interest in statistics, why we like to see connections between things that might not actually be there, why the mantra of “following the science” is nonsensical and whether there is such a thing as coincidence. David also provides plenty of practical tips for communicating and interpreting messages about risk. As you might expect for someone who specialises in risk communication, David is really good at getting his message across in ways we can all understand. My huge thanks to long-time friend of the show Roger Miles, who helped to make this conversation possible.To find out more about David, visit his academic website: https://wintoncentre.maths.cam.ac.uk/about/people/professor-sir-david-spiegelhalter/or his personal website: https://www.statslab.cam.ac.uk/~david/You'll find his books in all good bookstores. For more information, visit:The Art of Statistics — https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/294857/the-art-of-statistics-by-spiegelhalter-david/9780241258767COVID by Numbers — https://www.penguin.co.uk/authors/126755/david-spiegelhalterFor video content, I recommend:Communicating statistics in the time of COVID — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JW9plVfanjoFalse Positives — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmiEzi54lBIBe Prepared To Show Your Working — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E12_F4xeOHwIn our discussion, we also refer to the episode featuring Tim Harford on using Data to Make Smarter Decisions. You can hear that here: https://www.humanriskpodcast.com/tim-harford-on-using-data/

In this episode, Mark and Georgia spoke to Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, who is currently Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, based within the Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics at the University of Cambridge. Prior to this, he was the Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk in the Statistical Laboratory within the same department. He completed his undergraduate degree in statistics at the University of Oxford, later moving to University College London to complete his MSc and PhD in mathematical statistics under the supervision of Sir Adrian Smith. His research interests include use of Bayesian methods in medical statistics, and the monitoring and comparing of clinical and public-health outcomes and their associated publication as performance indicators. Currently, he is working on improving the way in which risk and statistical evidence is taught and discussed in society. He has hosted and appeared on various TV and radio shows such as BBC Horizon and Desert Island Discs, and has also published several books. You can find Professor Spiegelhalter on Twitter @d_spiegel, or his personal home page: https://www.statslab.cam.ac.uk/~david/ (where you can find the video of him on Winter Wipeout!). The BlueSci Podcast is run by the Cambridge University Science Magazine. This episode was hosted by Georgia Nixon and Mark Grimes. Visit www.bluesci.co.uk to access our free magazine, and find out how to get involved. If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe and leave a review or rating! we welcome your feedback and suggestions via email: podcast(at)bluesci.co.uk. You can also follow us on Twitter on @bluescipod or Instagram @bluescicam.

What does the future hold for statistics education? How can we improve public data literacy? Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, PhD is Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at University of Cambridge, dedicated to improving the way that quantitative evidence is used in society. He has been an applied statistician for over 40 decades and has been involved in several projects with important implications. His academic work has focused in Bayesian statistics, including being co-developer of BUGS and winBUGS, biomedical applications and science communication. He has won numerous awards for his work including being knighted in 2014. He is the author of a very popular book The Art of Statistics, Learning from Data. Our Data Science Zoominars feature interactive conversation with data science experts and a Q+A session moderated by Rafael A. Irizarry, PhD, Chair, Department of Data Science at Dana-Farber Cancer Institute.

Today, 23 March 2022, marks two years since the UK locked down for the first time in the COVID-19 pandemic.  We relaunch the Plus podcast by looking back to where our pandemic coverage all began, by revisiting our podcast from April 2020. Back in March and April 2020 one thing was on everybody's mind: the novel coronavirus - now better known as COVID-19. In this podcast we spoke to two people who have become very familiar to many of us over the last two years.  We reported on our first COVID-19 conversation with Julia Gog, an epidemiologist who has been informing the Science Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).  Julia is now a close collaborator with us here at Plus as part of the JUNIPER modelling consortium (as we'll find out in the next podcast).  We also spoke with David Spiegelhalter, Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, who is now a familiar figure through his frequent appearance on radio, TV and in print giving clear and calm explanations about the numbers behind the pandemic.  David told us about how to communicate science during a crisis.  And, at the end of the podcast, we had a go at explaining the maths of herd immunity in one minute. To find out more about the topics covered in this podcast see: Communicating the coronavirus crisis How can maths fight a pandemic? A call to action on COVID-19 Taking the pandemic temperature And you can find out much more in all our other coverage of the COVID-19 pandemic The music in this podcast comes from the band eusa. The track is called Now we are all SoB's.

People's perception of risk can vary greatly from person to person, making it challenging for healthcare professionals to communicate benefits and harms of medicines in a balanced fashion. Alexandra Freeman from the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication discusses how to give patients the information they need to decide what's best for them.Tune in to find out:Why people perceive risks so differentlyWhy medical communicators should strive to inform rather than persuadeHow to communicate in a trustworthy fashionWant to know more?There is no right way to communicate evidence to patients, but there are a few things you can do to avoid getting it wrong.Conventional communication techniques are good for persuading people – but when the aim is to inform, the principles of evidence communication should be applied instead.Graphics can help people translate abstract numbers into contextualised risks they can relate to, like these visuals that illustrate the risk of blood clots with the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine.These evidence-based guidelines can help professional communicators illustrate the personalised risk of dying from COVID-19.The Winton Centre offers plenty of resources on risk and evidence communication, including free e-learning courses for healthcare professionals, the Risky Talk podcast with statistician David Spiegelhalter, and the RealRisk tool to help healthcare professionals and communicators extract the right statistics from academic papers.For more on communicating benefits and harms in pharmacovigilance, revisit this Drug Safety Matters episode on vaccine safety communication.Join the conversation on social mediaFollow us on Twitter, Facebook or LinkedIn and share your thoughts about the show with the hashtag #DrugSafetyMatters.Got a story to share?We're always looking for new content and interesting people to interview. If you have a great idea for a show, get in touch!About UMCRead more about Uppsala Monitoring Centre and how we work to advance medicines safety.

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter specialises in medical statistics. He is the Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at Cambridge University, and one of the most frequently cited experts in his field. During the Covid 19 pandemic, he has made regular appearances as a broadcaster and newspaper commentator, analysing and explaining complex data for a general audience. David was born in Barnstable, the youngest of three children. After studying maths at Oxford University and University College London, he spent a year teaching at the University of Berkeley, California before returning to the UK. He has also worked in the field of computer-aided diagnosis. His expertise was called upon in the Bristol Royal Infirmary Inquiry and the Harold Shipman Inquiry. He was knighted in 2014 for his services to medical statistics. Presenter Lauren Laverne Producer Sarah Taylor

From anti-vaxx propaganda to partisan political news and wild covid conspiracies, social media is awash with dodgy, even dangerous (mis)information. Who is pushing this content online, what are they trying to achieve and how can we stop it - without censoring free speech? David is joined by a panel of info-warriors fighting for a less toxic and more truthful online ecosystem: Chloe Colliver is a specialist in disinformation and extremism online. She's the Head of Digital Policy and Strategy at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue. Laura Edelson co-leads the Cybersecurity for Democracy project at New York University which tracks the spread of misinformation via paid advertising and partisan news sources on platforms like Facebook.  Will Moy is the CEO of FullFact, the UK's premier fact-checking charity. They call out politicians, journalists and misinformation going viral online, as well as working with Facebook as an independent fact checker.  Sander van der Linden is professor of Social Psychology at the University of Cambridge, and author of a forthcoming book on the psychology of misinformation, The Truth Vaccine. They discuss; 3:50 Who is responsible for creating and promoting misinformation on social media? 10:55 What are the incentives driving social media platforms - and why do they often lead to algorithms which amplify misinformation? 18:49 How does FullFact's partnership with with Facebook work?  25:19 Why is misinformation often so compelling and persuasive? 30:20 How can we distinguish trustworthy from untrustworthy communications?  36:42 How should fact checking articles be constructed? Should they be boring? 41:05 What kind of regulation could help fix the situation? Should we ban certain kinds of content - or enshrine broad principles in law? How good is forthcoming UK and EU legislation?  *** Views to share? Get in touch on Twitter @RiskyTalkPod Risky Talk is produced by Ilan Goodman for the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge.

There's so much data out there about COVID-19 it can be hard to make sense of it all. Over the last year, a couple of statisticians have been working to help the readers of the Guardian, get a handle on the numbers. Dr. Anthony Masters and Sir David John Spiegelhalter have a new book out based on their weekly blog titled COVID by the Numbers, which is the focus of this episode of Stats and Stories. Dr. Anthony Masters (@anthonybmasters) is a Chartered Statistician, a Statistical Ambassador for the Royal Statistical Society, and a frequent blogger and explainer of statistical ideas. In his voluntary role as a Statistical Ambassador, Dr. Masters has contributed to BBC and Full Fact articles, among others, and he writes about statistics, survey research, and coding in R on Medium. Sir David Spiegelhalter (@d_spiegel) is the Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication and has dedicated his work to improving the way that quantitative evidence is used in society. He is the former President of the Royal Statistical Society as well as a three-time former guest on Stats and Stories.

Folks, this is the 50th episode of LBS — 50th! I never would have thought that there were so many Bayesian nerds in the world when I first interviewed Osvaldo Martin more than 2 years ago.  To celebrate that random, crazy adventure, I wanted to do a special episode at any random point, and so it looks like it's gonna be #50! This episode is special by its guest, not its number — although my guest knows a thing or two about numbers. Most recently, he wrote the book Covid by Numbers. A mathematical statistician dedicated to helping the general public understand risk, uncertainty and decision-making, he's the author of several books on the topic actually, including The Art of Statistics. You may also know him from his podcast, Risky Talk, or his numerous appearances in newspapers, radio and TV shows. Did you guess who it is? Maybe you just know him as the reigning World Champion in Loop – a version of pool played on an elliptical table – and are just discovering now that he is a fantastic science communicator – something that turns out to be especially important for stats education in times of, let's say, global pandemic for instance. He holds a PhD in Mathematical Statistics from the University of London and has been the Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at Cambridge University since 2016. He was also the President of the famous Royal Statistical Society in 2017-2018. Most importantly, he was featured in BBC1's Winter Wipeout in 2011 – seriously, go check it out on his website; it's hilarious. So did you guess it yet? Yep, my guest for this episode is no other than Sir David Spiegelhalter — yes, there are Bayesian knights! Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work at https://bababrinkman.com/ (https://bababrinkman.com/) ! Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible! Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Brian Huey, Giuliano Cruz, Tim Gasser, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, Adam Bartonicek, William Benton, Alan O'Donnell, Mark Ormsby, Demetri Pananos, James Ahloy, Jon Berezowski, Robin Taylor, Thomas Wiecki, Chad Scherrer, Nathaniel Neitzke, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Elea McDonnell Feit, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Joshua Duncan, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, George Ho, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Raul Maldonado, Marcin Elantkowski, Tim Radtke, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Matthew McAnear, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Luis Iberico, Alejandro Morales and Tomáš Frýda. Visit https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats (https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats) to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;) Links from the show: David's website: http://www.statslab.cam.ac.uk/~david/ (http://www.statslab.cam.ac.uk/~david/) David on Twitter: https://twitter.com/d_spiegel (https://twitter.com/d_spiegel) The Art of Statistics: https://dspiegel29.github.io/ArtofStatistics/ (https://dspiegel29.github.io/ArtofStatistics/) Risky Talk podcast: https://riskytalk.libsyn.com/ (https://riskytalk.libsyn.com/) Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication: https://wintoncentre.maths.cam.ac.uk/ (https://wintoncentre.maths.cam.ac.uk/) Frank Ramsey -- A Sheer Excess of Powers: https://www.amazon.fr/Frank-Ramsey-Sheer-Excess-Powers/dp/019875535X (https://www.amazon.fr/Frank-Ramsey-Sheer-Excess-Powers/dp/019875535X) BBC Radio 4, David Spiegelhalter on Frank Ramsey: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000q8pq (https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000q8pq) De Finetti's theorem: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Finetti%27s_theorem (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Finetti%27s_theorem) Laplace's... Support this podcast

Talya Miron-Shatz, PhD, is a leader in research at the intersection of medicine and behavioral economics. She is professor and founding Director of the Center for Medical Decision Making at Ono Academic College in Israel, senior fellow at the Center for Medicine in the Public Interest in New York, and a visiting researcher at the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge. Miron-Shatz was a post-doctoral researcher at Princeton University, and a lecturer at Wharton, the University of Pennsylvania. She is the author of over 60 academic papers on medical decision making. She is CEO of CureMyWay, an international health consulting firm whose clients include Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, and Samsung.   She wrote the book Your Life Depends on It: What You Can Do to Make Better Choices About Your Health. She wrote it for patients and clinicians alike. We discuss how patients are frequently overwhelmed with the information we give them. How to give it to them in a more digestible way, while still being time efficient, how we can tell if they are understanding us and how to tell if they don't plan on following our recommendations. She also teaches us how to increase the chances that a patient will choose us as their doctor. Find her at www.talyamironshatz.com   Today's Sponsor is Locumstory. To find out more visit: doctorpodcastnetwork.com/locumstory  

With data on the Covid-19 pandemic changing shape with every new outbreak and new mutation, it's a complex task to make sense of where the story of the virus will head next. David Spiegelhalter is chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at Cambridge University and an expert on crunching figures in order to understand successes and failures. His new book Covid by Numbers, co-written with Anthony Masters, seeks to shine a spotlight on the UK's handling of the pandemic. In this episode he speaks with the virologist and host of The Naked Scientist podcast Dr Chris Smith. Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/intelligencesquared. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Excess deaths, vaccine harms and lockdowns: how should experts communicate about these complex, politically explosive issues? Michael Blastland quizzes statistical duo David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters on what they've learnt while writing a weekly column for the Observer. They explore the importance of context and comparison, the trustworthiness of sharing uncertainty and the power of a good analogy. The graphic discussed in the episode - which compares the potential harms and benefits of the AstraZeneca vaccine - can be seen here: https://wintoncentre.maths.cam.ac.uk/news/latest-data-mhra-blood-clots-associated-astra-zeneca-covid-19-vaccine/  David and Anthony's columns are collected and expanded in their new book Covid By Numbers: https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/446/446585/covid-by-numbers/9780241547731.html  *** Views to share? Get in touch on Twitter @RiskyTalkPod Risky Talk is produced by Ilan Goodman for the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge.

My guest today is Talya Miron-Shatz, PhD., a leader in research at the intersection of medicine and behavioral economics. She is professor and founding Director of the Center for Medical Decision Making at Ono Academic College in Israel, senior fellow at the Center for Medicine in the Public Interest in New York, and a visiting researcher at the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge. The topic is her book Your Life Depends on It: What You Can Do to Make Better Choices About Your Health. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Vaccination and Public Trust COVID-19 Vaccination Wearing Masks Against COVID-19 Delta Variant Treatment for Obesity Israel's COVID-19 Vaccination Coronavirus Disease Statistics Risk Factors for COVID-19 HIV and COVID-19 Medical Decision Making Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

In recent years, we have gained unprecedented control over choices about our health. But these choices are hard and often full of psychological traps. As a result, we're liable to misuse medication, fall for pseudoscientific cure-alls, and undergo needless procedures. Talya Miron-Shatz explores the preventable ways we make bad choices about everything from nutrition to medication, from pregnancy to end-of-life care. She reveals how the medical system can set us up for success or failure and maps a model for better doctor-patient relationships. Full of new insights and actionable guidance, Miron-Shatz is a guide to making good choices when you can't afford to make a bad one. Bio: Talya Miron-Shatz, PhD., is a leader in research at the intersection of medicine and behavioral economics. She is professor and founding Director of the Center for Medical Decision Making at Ono Academic College in Israel, senior fellow at the Center for Medicine in the Public Interest in New York, and a visiting researcher at the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge. In this episode of Trend Following Radio: Vaccination and Public Trust COVID-19 Vaccination Wearing Masks Against COVID-19 Delta Variant Treatment for Obesity Israel's COVID-19 Vaccination Coronavirus Disease Statistics Risk Factors for COVID-19 HIV and COVID-19 Medical Decision Making

In this episode, Geoff Allen speaks with Ilan Goodman about the intersection of philosophy and science. They discuss: Ilan's background as a philosopher, podcaster and actor; scientific philosophy versus ‘pure philosophy'; Patricia Churchland's views on philosophy and neuroscience; philosophy as a mapping exercise; scientific realism and mind-independent truths; the distinctions between philosophy and science; causality at the level of quantum particles; communicating science to the public; the motivations for podcasting; the current state of intellectual discourse; the challenges of communicating coronavirus information to the public; and other topics. Ilan Goodman is a podcaster, producer and communicator of science. He works as a producer for science-focused podcasts, including CrowdScience (BBC World Service), The Curious Cases of Rutherford and Fry (BBC R4) and Azeem Azhar's Exponential View. In a past role, he worked at the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, working as a producer for Risky Talk with David Spiegelhalter. Ilan is the host and producer of NOUS the podcast, which explores questions about the mind through philosophy, psychology and neuroscience. Ilan is also an actor, and he has appeared extensively on stage, in TV shows and in feature films. Ilan holds an MSc in History and Philosophy of Science from UCL, and this common ground formed the basis for much of our conversation. Ilan holds Bachelor degrees in Experimental Psychology & Philosophy (University of Oxford) and Acting (Royal Academy of Dramatic Art). *** Follow Extrapolator on social media for all the latest news: instagram.com/extrapolatorpod facebook.com/extrapolatorpod linkedin.com/company/extrapolator

Politicians and civil servants are hungry for data to help design effective policy. How do we best collect and communicate this evidence - to support good governance and public accountability?  Joining David to explore interactive dashboards, misinformation and what’s not in the data are:  Professor John Aston - former chief scientific adviser to the Home Office, now Harding Professor of Statistics in Public Life Dr Laura Gilbert - Chief Data Analyst at No. 10 Downing St Professor Diane Coyle CBE - Director of the Bennett Institute for Public Policy *** Views to share? Get in touch on Twitter @RiskyTalkPod or email riskytalk@maths.cam.ac.uk Risky Talk is produced by Ilan Goodman for the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge.  

All adults under 30 should be offered the Pfizer-BioNtech or Moderna coronavirus vaccine due to a potential link between the Oxford-AstraZeneca jab and extremely rare blood clots. The UK's Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) said there was no proof the Covid vaccine had caused the clots but the link was getting firmer. R4 Today programme's Mishal Husain looked at what the risks and benefits were to taking the coronavirus jab and how it will be used on the over-30s. She heard from professor Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Group; professor Sir David Spielgelhalter, chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge; and Matt Hancock MP, health secretary. Audience questions were answered by professor Anthony Harnden, deputy chair of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JVCI); and Dame Clare Gerada, former chair of the Royal College of GPs. (Image: Vials with AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine; Credit: Reuters)

Statistics need care and context - but journalists are under pressure to craft engaging stories. Is there a way of doing both?  Joining David to explore how you turn data into a clear and compelling story are: Caelainn Barr - Data Projects Editor at The Guardian Tom Chivers - Science Editor at UnHerd and the author of How To Read Numbers: A Guide to Statistics in the News (and Knowing When to Trust Them) Paul Milner - Programmes Director at National Numeracy Check out Tom’s Statistical Style Guide at howtoreadnumbers.com and sign up to the campaign! *** Views to share? Get in touch on Twitter @RiskyTalkPod or email riskytalk@maths.cam.ac.uk Risky Talk is produced by Ilan Goodman for the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge.

Scientific publications drive science, well that's stating the obvious, isn't it, but the form and way it's processed is historic. It's historic in the sense that there are journals that are gatekeepers, their editors that are sending out submissions to reviewers, who are then providing comments, and then it's almost that it's set in stone and locked in place for the future. But there are challenges to this and one of the challenges is the focus of this episode of Stats+Short Stories with guest Alexandra Freeman. Alexandra Freeman is the Executive Director of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, a role she took up in 2016. She previously spent 16 years working for the BBC, primarily a producer and director for BBC Science. Alexandra is passionate about bringing science to the widest possible audience. Along with working in television she has also helped develop content for computer games, social media and websites, as well as formal learning resources

Communicating risk is difficult at any time but during a pandemic, communicating risk well can be what keeps a disease from spreading, as one public health official has put it, like wildfire. During the COVID 19 pandemic, experts, journalists, and elected officials have all been working to find the most effective way to communicate risk to the public. Helping people understand their risks of infection – or of infecting others – can be the thing that gets them to follow mask mandates or other public health advisories. Effectively communicating risk in COVID 19 is the focus of this episode of Stats and Stories with guests Alexandra Freeman and Claudia Schneider Alexandra Freeman is the Executive Director of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, a role she took up in 2016. She previously spent 16 years working for the BBC, primarily a producer and director for BBC Science. Alexandra is passionate about bringing science to the widest possible audience. Along with working in television she has also helped develop content for computer games, social media and websites, as well as formal learning resources. Claudia Schneider is a postdoctoral research associate with the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication and the Cambridge Social Decision-Making Laboratory. At the Winton Centre she studies the communication of uncertainty about evidence to various stakeholders, particularly the unquantified ‘quality of the underlying work’. Claudia received her PhD in Psychology from Columbia University and also held a graduate research scholar position at Princeton University. Her research focus lies at the intersection of decision science and applied social psychology. Her work uses a combination of methods ranging from quantitative laboratory surveys to field studies in diverse cultural and social settings.

On November 11, Saira Shah hosted our risk webinar. In advance of this insightful event on how our human senses assess complex, modern risks, Saira spoke to a man described as ‘probably the greatest living statistical communicator’. Professor, Sir David Spiegelhalter is Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at Cambridge University. Crucially, he is also currently the Joint Chair of the Royal Statistical Society COVID-19 task force. Here, he explains the mathematical and real world underpinnings that inform his work on the pandemic and other statistical risks. He also illustrates why we need to use both our instinctive gut reactions in tandem with slow, methodical thinking to make sense of modern risks. 'I think humans are a wonderful combination between the two,” said Sir David. "People have said that you've got risks as analysis and you've got risk as feeling, and they're both terribly important. This interaction between the two - that's where I work quite a lot - is so riveting, particularly at this time of COVID.'

Communicating about vaccines has never been higher stakes. How do we do it well? Joining David to explore the importance of scientific rigour, listening and building relationships are: Professor Heidi Larson - Director of the Vaccine Confidence Project and the author of Stuck: How Vaccine Rumours Start — and Why They Don’t Go Away. Professor Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Group and creator of the Vaccine Knowledge Project. *** Views to share? Get in touch on Twitter @RiskyTalkPod or email riskytalk@maths.cam.ac.uk Risky Talk is produced by Ilan Goodman for the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge.

In this talk evidence covid-19 update, we're taking on risk - how do you figure out your individual risk of dying from the disease? Try QCovid, but remember that it's figuring out your risk back in April. When it comes to talking about risk, very few people actually engage with the number, so Alex Freeman from the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge joins us to describe their research into more effective ways of presenting it. Huseyin Naci, from the London School of Economics, returns to the podcast to talk to us about the problems of pulling all the trial data together, and where covid-19 has made people work together most effectively in tackling that issue. Reading list; Living risk prediction algorithm (QCOVID) for risk of hospital admission and mortality from coronavirus 19 in adults https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3731 Repurposed antiviral drugs for COVID-19 –interim WHO SOLIDARITY trial results https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.15.20209817v1 Producing and using timely comparative evidence on drugs: lessons from clinical trials for covid-19 https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3869.full

In this talk evidence covid-19 update, we're taking on risk - how do you figure out your individual risk of dying from the disease? Try QCovid, but remember that it's figuring out your risk back in April. When it comes to talking about risk, very few people actually engage with the number, so Alex Freeman from the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge joins us to describe their research into more effective ways of presenting it. Huseyin Naci, from the London School of Economics, returns to the podcast to talk to us about the problems of pulling all the trial data together, and where covid-19 has made people work together most effectively in tackling that issue. Reading list; Living risk prediction algorithm (QCOVID) for risk of hospital admission and mortality from coronavirus 19 in adults https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3731 Repurposed antiviral drugs for COVID-19 –interim WHO SOLIDARITY trial results https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.15.20209817v1 Producing and using timely comparative evidence on drugs: lessons from clinical trials for covid-19 https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3869.full

Chemical spills, food scares, terrorist attacks and, of course, pandemics: How can we help manage and reduce the impact of these frightening events with good communication - even while evidence is scant and uncertainty predominates? Joining David to share their experience from the frontlines are: Professor Brooke Rogers OBE - Behavioural scientist at KCL, and SAGE participant advising the UK government on the coronavirus measures and risks to national security. Professor Lord John Krebs - former head of the Food Standards Agency where he dealt with BSE in sheep, dioxins and a series of food scares. A full transcript is available here. *** Views to share? Get in touch on Twitter @RiskyTalkPod or email riskytalk@maths.cam.ac.uk Risky Talk is produced by Ilan Goodman for the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge.

The public appetite for scientific evidence during the coronavirus pandemic has been voracious. But communicating it well is a fiendish challenge. How can governments give clear advice while also acknowledging uncertainty? How can scientists debate complex evidence while supporting strong interventions? And how can the media scrutinise public health measures without undermining them? Joining David to navigate the principles and pitfalls of communicating evidence in a pandemic are: Victoria Macdonald, Health and Social Care Editor for C4 News Tracey Brown OBE, Director of Sense About Science Professor Christina Pagel, Operational Research at UCL and member of Independent SAGE Access the full transcript here. *** Views to share? Get in touch on Twitter @RiskyTalkPod or email riskytalk@maths.cam.ac.uk Risky Talk is produced by Ilan Goodman for the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge.

David Spiegelhalter is Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication in the University of Cambridge, which aims to improve the way that statistical evidence is used by health professionals, patients, lawyers, media and policy-makers. Apart from academic publications, he has written The Norm Chronicles (with Michael Blastland), Sex by Numbers, and the recently-published The Art of Statistics. He presented the BBC4 documentaries Tails you Win: the Science of Chance and the award-winning Climate Change by Numbers. He was elected Fellow of the Royal Society in 2005, knighted in 2014 for services to medical statistics, and was President of the Royal Statistical Society for 2017-2018. His greatest achievement came in 2011, when he was 7th in an episode of Winter Wipeout. 5x15 brings together outstanding individuals to tell of their lives, passions and inspirations. There are only two rules - no scripts and only 15 minutes each. Learn more about 5x15 events: 5x15stories.com Twitter: www.twitter.com/5x15stories Facebook: www.facebook.com/5x15stories Instagram: www.instagram.com/5x15stories

David Spiegelhalter discusses with Ivan six things which he thinks should be better known. Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter is Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication in the University of Cambridge, which aims to improve the way that statistical evidence is used by health professionals, patients, lawyers and judges, media and policy-makers. He advises organisations and government agencies on risk communication and is a regular media commentator on statistical issues, with a particular focus on communicating uncertainty. His background is in medical statistics, and he has over 200 refereed publications and is co-author of 6 textbooks, as well as The Norm Chronicles (with Michael Blastland), and Sex by Numbers. He works extensively with the media, and presented the BBC4 documentaries Tails you Win: the Science of Chance, the award-winning Climate Change by Numbers, and in 2011 came seventh in an episode of BBC1’s Winter Wipeout. He was elected Fellow of the Royal Society in 2005, and knighted in 2014 for services to medical statistics. He was President of the Royal Statistical Society for 2017-2018. His bestselling book, The Art of Statistics, was published in March 2019. He is @d_spiegel on Twitter, and his home page is http://www.statslab.cam.ac.uk/~david/ Alan Bennett reading Winnie the Pooh https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v08/n22/alan-bennett/diary Ilfracombe https://www.visitilfracombe.co.uk/see-do/ Whelks https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/food-and-drink/features/whelks-are-healthy-versatile-and-sustainable-so-why-did-we-stop-eating-them-in-the-uk-9598928.html Riddley Walker by Russell Hoban https://www.theguardian.com/books/2010/dec/04/riddley-walker-russell-hoban-book-club The Singing Detective https://www.npr.org/2012/02/24/147037460/25-years-later-the-singing-detective-still-shines?t=1591547850222 Poisson distribution https://understandinguncertainty.org/another-tragic-cluster-how-surprised-should-we-be This podcast is powered by ZenCast.fm

For leading climate scientist Dr Tamsin Edwards, probabilities and possible futures are part of her everyday work. She joins David to explore uncertainty in different aspects of her life: as a statistician and mathematical modeller, as a communicator about possible climate futures, but also as a cancer patient faced with a life-changing decision. Tamsin and David explore Why 'all models are wrong but some are useful' How Tamsin engages with climate change skeptics and Extinction Rebellion campaigners Communicating projections for different scenarios - with climate change and Covid-19. What she learnt as a cancer patient 'at the pointy end of probability'  Connect with Dr Tamsin Edwards on Twitter. Views to share? Get in touch via Twitter @RiskyTalkPod or email riskytalk@maths.cam.ac.uk Risky Talk is produced by Ilan Goodman for the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge. A full transcript of this episode can be found here

Nick asks Robert Buckland, Secretary of State for Justice whether the Government will reach the testing target set out by Matt Hancock earlier this month. Nick also speaks to Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter who is a Statistician and Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, University of Cambridge Plus a fascinating listen to the Professor from Imperial College London, who is leading their COVID-19 vaccine trials

This podcast is dedicated to the one thing that's been on everybody's mind for the last few weeks: the coronavirus. We report on our conversation with Julia Gog, an epidemiologist who has been informing the Science Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), talk to David Spiegelhalter, Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, about how to communicate science during a crisis, and explore the maths of herd immunity in one minute. To find out more about the topics covered in this podcast see https://plus.maths.org/content/tags/covid-19 The music in this podcast comes from the band, eusa, and the track is called "Now we are all SOB's". You can find their music on soundcloud - https://soundcloud.com/eusa

This podcast is dedicated to the one thing that's been on everybody's mind for the last few weeks: the coronavirus. We report on our conversation with Julia Gog, an epidemiologist who has been informing the Science Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), talk to David Spiegelhalter, Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, about how to communicate science during a crisis, and explore the maths of herd immunity in one minute. To find out more about the topics covered in this podcast see https://plus.maths.org/content/tags/covid-19 The music in this podcast comes from the band, eusa, and the track is called "Now we are all SOB's". You can find their music on soundcloud - https://soundcloud.com/eusa

What do we know about public trust in expert knowledge when the stakes are high and there is considerable uncertainty? This week, our host Dr Rob Doubleday sits down with Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter and Dr Alexandra Freeman of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication. In the context of the current pandemic, we discuss what research has been done on the best way to communicate evidence and uncertainty and the best way to communicate the relationship between expert advice and political decision making. CSaP's Science and Policy Podcast is a production of the Centre for Science and Policy at the University of Cambridge. This series on science, policy and pandemics is produced in partnership with Cambridge Infectious Diseases and the Cambridge Immunology Network. Our guests this week: Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter is Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge. He was Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at the University of Cambridge from 2007 to 2018. He has worked on Understanding Uncertainty, and is the acclaimed author of The Art of Statistics. He has recently been exploring the question "how much ‘normal' risk does Covid represent?", and he regularly hosts the podcast Risky Talk. Dr Alexandra Freeman is the Executive Director of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication. She previously worked for the BBC, primarily a producer and director for BBC Science. She worked on a number of popular series including "Walking with Beasts", "Trust Me I'm a Doctor" and "Climate Change by Numbers". Her work has won numerous awards, including a BAFTA and the AAAS Kavli gold award for science journalism. She has recently written about how different countries are reacting to the COVID-19 risk and their governments' responses. -- This series is hosted by CSaP Executive Director Dr Rob Doubleday, and is edited and produced by CSaP Communications Coordinator Kate McNeil. If you have feedback about this episode, or questions you'd like us to address in a future week, please email enquiries@csap.cam.ac.uk .

The unfolding coronavirus pandemic is a story driven by numbers. But how reliable are the numbers we have? What can the data really tell us – and what are the major areas of uncertainty? In this special episode, recorded on 1st April,  Michael Blastland and Professor David Spiegelhalter help us separate the signal from the noise. Why the absolute numbers of confirmed cases and deaths from Covid 19 are dodgy, but the rate at which those numbers change is still a useful indicator. Why Norway vs Sweden is an unfolding natural experiment: neighbouring countries with broadly similar populations, but Norway has gone into strict lockdown and Sweden is being relatively relaxed. There are usually around 600,000 deaths per year in the UK. When we look back, will Covid 19 have caused many excess deaths – or could the figures for 2020 end up looking similar to a bad flu season? How can we think about our personal risk of dying from Covid 19? David sets out how getting Covid 19 multiplies your existing level of risk depending your age: it provides a “pulse” of heightened risk over a short period.  Full transcript available at: https://riskytalk.libsyn.com/transcript-of-coronavirus-understanding-the-numbers *** Views to share? Get in touch on Twitter @RiskyTalkPod or email riskytalk@maths.cam.ac.uk Risky Talk is produced by Ilan Goodman for the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge.  

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, puts the risks of Covid-19 into perspective. He found that the proportion of people who get infected by coronavirus, who then go on to die increases with age, and the trend matches almost exactly how our background mortality risk also goes up. Catching the disease could be like packing a year’s worth of risk into a couple of weeks. (Mathematician and Risk guru, Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter at the University of Cambridge. Credit: In Pictures Ltd./Corbis via Getty Images)

Stats about crime, immigration, unemployment and political polls fuel political debate and drive headlines. But how are these ‘soft’ numbers really calculated? How uncertain should we be about them? And how can they be reported honestly and usefully - without losing trust? Joining David to make sense of the stats and how to communicate them are: Dr Robert Cuffe, Head of Statistics at the BBC Ed Humpherson, Director General for Regulation at the UK Statistics Authority Dr Sarah Dryhurst, a psychologist at the University of Cambridge Views to share? Get in touch on Twitter @RiskyTalkPod or email riskytalk@maths.cam.ac.uk Risky Talk is produced by Ilan Goodman for the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge.  

Personal genetic risk information is set to be become part of everyday healthcare. But is some unhelpful, even dangerous? What psychological impact does it have on patients? And do doctors know enough about genetics to effectively guide patients and inform treatment decisions? Joining David to discussing what genetic risks should be communicated and how, we have: Professor Robert Green, Director of the Genomes to People group at Harvard Medical School. Dr Gemma Chandratillake, Course director of the Genomic Medicine Programme at the University of Cambridge  Dr Saskia Sanderson, a UCL psychologist working on the impact of genetic information With a special contribution from Jillian Hastings Ward, Chair of the participant panel for the 100,000 Genomes Project. Views to share? Get in touch on Twitter @RiskyTalkPod or email riskytalk@maths.cam.ac.uk. Risky Talk is produced by Ilan Goodman for the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge.  

How can we communicate about climate change in the most engaging, informative and even persuasive ways? What are the different audiences we need to reach, and how can we craft effective communications for each of them? Joining David to guide us through the psychology, politics and science of climate change communication we have: Dr Anthony Leiserowitz, Director of the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication Dr Emily Shuckburgh OBE, Climate scientist and Director of Cambridge Zero Dr Sander van der Linden, Director of the Cambridge Social Decision-Making Laboratory Full transcript available here Views to share? Get in touch on Twitter @RiskyTalkPod or email riskytalk@maths.cam.ac.uk Risky Talk is produced by Ilan Goodman for the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge.

Risky Talk features conversations with the world’s top experts in risk and evidence communication addressing urgent, practical challenges: How can doctors communicate the risks and benefits of medical treatment? How should scientists communicate evidence about climate change? How can journalists make numbers meaningful to readers? How should government institutions convey important statistics? Hosted by David Spiegelhalter (@d_spiegel) Get in touch with us on Twitter (@RiskyTalkPod) or email (riskytalk@maths.cam.ac.uk) Produced by Ilan Goodman for the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge.

Today's guest is distinguished researcher and statistician, Sir David Spiegelhalter. A fellow of the Royal Society, he is currently Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge. He has dedicated his career, in his words to, “improving the way that quantitative evidence is used in society.” This includes (of particular interest to us) biostatistics and medical research. David is an ISI highly cited researcher who has also focused much of his time and energy to public education through numerous media appearances, documentaries such as his recent BBC series geared towards children, and books such as the one we are discussing today. That book, The Art of Statistics: How to Learn from Data, was published in the UK by Penguin in March, 2019 and recently released here in the US by Basic Books in September 2019. Colin Miller and Dr. Keith Mankin host the popular medical podcast, PeerSpectrum. Colin works in the medical device space and Keith is a retired pediatric orthopedic surgeon. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today's guest is distinguished researcher and statistician, Sir David Spiegelhalter. A fellow of the Royal Society, he is currently Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge. He has dedicated his career, in his words to, “improving the way that quantitative evidence is used in society.” This includes (of particular interest to us) biostatistics and medical research. David is an ISI highly cited researcher who has also focused much of his time and energy to public education through numerous media appearances, documentaries such as his recent BBC series geared towards children, and books such as the one we are discussing today. That book, The Art of Statistics: How to Learn from Data, was published in the UK by Penguin in March, 2019 and recently released here in the US by Basic Books in September 2019. Colin Miller and Dr. Keith Mankin host the popular medical podcast, PeerSpectrum. Colin works in the medical device space and Keith is a retired pediatric orthopedic surgeon. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/medicine

Today's guest is distinguished researcher and statistician, Sir David Spiegelhalter. A fellow of the Royal Society, he is currently Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge. He has dedicated his career, in his words to, “improving the way that quantitative evidence is used in society.” This includes (of particular interest to us) biostatistics and medical research. David is an ISI highly cited researcher who has also focused much of his time and energy to public education through numerous media appearances, documentaries such as his recent BBC series geared towards children, and books such as the one we are discussing today. That book, The Art of Statistics: How to Learn from Data, was published in the UK by Penguin in March, 2019 and recently released here in the US by Basic Books in September 2019. Colin Miller and Dr. Keith Mankin host the popular medical podcast, PeerSpectrum. Colin works in the medical device space and Keith is a retired pediatric orthopedic surgeon. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today's guest is distinguished researcher and statistician, Sir David Spiegelhalter. A fellow of the Royal Society, he is currently Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge. He has dedicated his career, in his words to, “improving the way that quantitative evidence is used in society.” This includes (of particular interest to us) biostatistics and medical research. David is an ISI highly cited researcher who has also focused much of his time and energy to public education through numerous media appearances, documentaries such as his recent BBC series geared towards children, and books such as the one we are discussing today. That book, The Art of Statistics: How to Learn from Data, was published in the UK by Penguin in March, 2019 and recently released here in the US by Basic Books in September 2019. Colin Miller and Dr. Keith Mankin host the popular medical podcast, PeerSpectrum. Colin works in the medical device space and Keith is a retired pediatric orthopedic surgeon. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter is Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication in the University of Cambridge, which aims to improve the way that statistical evidence is used by health professionals, patients, lawyers and judges, media and policy-makers. He advises organisations and government agencies on risk communication and is a regular media commentator on statistical issues, with a particular focus on communicating uncertainty.He has over 200 refereed publications and is co-author of 6 textbooks, as well as The Norm Chronicles (with Michael Blastland), Sex by Numbers, and The Art of Statistics. He works extensively with the media, and presented the BBC4 documentaries ‘Tails you Win: the Science of Chance” and the award-winning “Climate Change by Numbers”. He was elected Fellow of the Royal Society in 2005, knighted in 2014 for services to medical statistics, and was President of the Royal Statistical Society for 2017-2018.

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter is Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication in the University of Cambridge, which aims to improve the way that statistical evidence is used by health professionals, patients, lawyers and judges, media and policy-makers. He advises organisations and government agencies on risk communication and is a regular media commentator on statistical issues, with a particular focus on communicating uncertainty.He has over 200 refereed publications and is co-author of 6 textbooks, as well as The Norm Chronicles (with Michael Blastland), Sex by Numbers, and The Art of Statistics. He works extensively with the media, and presented the BBC4 documentaries ‘Tails you Win: the Science of Chance” and the award-winning “Climate Change by Numbers”. He was elected Fellow of the Royal Society in 2005, knighted in 2014 for services to medical statistics, and was President of the Royal Statistical Society for 2017-2018.

David Spiegelhalter is Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk in the Statistical Laboratory at the University of Cambridge, Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, and President of the Royal Statistical Society.

In this, the second episode of our NeurIPS series, we’re joined by David Spiegelhalter, Chair of Winton Center for Risk and Evidence Communication at Cambridge University and President of the Royal Statistical Society. David, an invited speaker at NeurIPS, presented on “Making Algorithms Trustworthy: What Can Statistical Science Contribute to Transparency, Explanation and Validation?”. In our conversation, we explore the nuanced difference between being trusted and being trustworthy, and its implications for those building AI systems. We also dig into how we can evaluate trustworthiness, which David breaks into four phases, the inspiration for which he drew from British philosopher Onora O'Neill's ideas around 'intelligent transparency’. The complete show notes for this episode can be found at twimlai.com/talk/212. For more information on the NeurIPS series, visit twimlai.com/neurips2018.

David Spiegelhalter is Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk in the Statistical Laboratory at the University of Cambridge, Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication , and President of the Royal Statistical Society . He is passionate about helping the public understand uncertainty and risk . His recent book, Sex by Numbers , describes scientific research that provides a view of the world of sex.

David Spiegelhalter is Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk in the Statistical Laboratory at the University of Cambridge, Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication , and President of the Royal Statistical Society . He is passionate about helping the public understand uncertainty and risk . His recent book, Sex by Numbers , describes scientific research that provides a view of the world of sex.

While they aren’t as unpopular as politicians or journalists, people who work with statistics come in for their share of abuse. “Figures lie and liars figure,” goes one maxim. And don’t forget, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." But some people are the good guys, doing their best to combat the flawed or dishonest use of numbers. One of those good guys is David Spiegelhalter, professor of the public understanding of risk in the Statistical Laboratory in the Centre for Mathematical Sciences at the University of Cambridge and current president of the Royal Statistical Society. Spiegelhalter, the subject of this Social Science Bites podcast, even cops to being a bit of an “evidence policeman” because on occasion even he spends some of his time “going around telling people off for bad behavior.” There is bad behavior to police. “There’s always been the use of statistics and numbers and facts as rhetorical devices to try and get people’s opinion across, and to in a sense manipulate our emotions and feelings on things,” he tells interviewer David Edmonds. “People might still think that statistics and numbers are cold, hard facts but they’re soft, fluffy things. They can be manipulated and changed, made to look big, made to look small, all depending on the story that someone wants to tell.” Asked at one point if he even accepts that there are ‘facts,’ Spiegelhalter gives a nuanced yes. “I’m not going to get into the whole discussion about ‘what is truth,’ although it’s amazing how quick you do go down that line. No, there are facts, and I really value them.” Despite that policing role, Spiegelhalter explain, his methods are less prescriptive and more educational, working to get others to ask key questions such as “What am I not being told?” and “Why I am hearing this?” The goal is less to track down every bit of fake news in the world, and more to inoculate others against its influence. One part of that, for example, is determining what communicators and organizations to trust. Spiegelhalter, acknowledging his debt to Onora O'Neill, an emeritus professor of philosophy at the University of Cambridge, argues that organizations themselves shouldn’t strive to be trusted, but to show trustworthy attributes. This goes beyond things like “fishbowl transparency,” where you lard your website with every imaginable factoid, but actively making sure people can get to your information, understand it and they can assess how reliable it is. That ‘understanding’ part of the process is what Spigelhalter pursues as part of chairing the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, which is dedicated to improving the way that quantitative evidence is used in society. In that role he’s become a public face of honest use of numbers, as evidenced by his role as presenter of the BBC4 documentaries Tails you Win: the Science of Chance and Climate Change by Numbers. His own research focuses on health-related use of statistics and statistical methods, and while that might include Bayesian inference using Gibbs samplinig, it can also encompass the focus of his 2015 book, Sex by Numbers.