Deconstruct

President-elect Donald Trump's campaign promises look to be a mixed bag for commercial real estate. Extended tax cuts would be a boon for dealmaking; tariffs could spark inflation and push the Federal Reserve to throw the cutting cycle in reverse. Deconstruct sits down with NYU Schack Institute of Real Estate Associate Dean Marc Norman and partners at Holland & Knight Joe Guay and Joel Roberson to parse the impact on investors and developers in 2025. Do you have guests you want to hear from? Topics you want explored? Questions, feedback, critiques? Write to us with "Deconstruct" in the subject line @ suzannah.cavanaugh@therealdeal.com. _

Matthew Mannion is auctioneer to the stars of New York City real estate. He handled the Flatiron Building's two-parter, the Times Square Margaritaville's flameout and most recently the UCC auction of Cohen Realty Enterprises' interest in a potpourri of assets. As foreclosure filings keep ticking up, Mannion shares stories from the courthouse steps and the inside scoop on how auctions get done.

Arnaud Karsenti, the head of Miami-based 13th Floor Investments, has a whopping dozen multifamily projects underway in a city set to break another record for deliveries in 2024. Does Miami have the tenants to meet that supply? Karsenti talks in-migration, demand for housing near public transit and the pros and cons of public-private partnerships at The Real Deal's South Florida Real Estate Forum.

Ranches have long been at the beating heart of Texas — first, as working plots; then, as legacy land. During the pandemic, the properties acquired a new sheen, attracting city-weary Texans and would-be cowboys willing to spend tens of millions of dollars for some peace and quiet and peace of mind. Four years later, demand has come roaring back. TRD's Joe Lovinger talks with one of the state's prolific ranch brokers to find out what's drawing all of that dollar volume to the desert.

Election 2024 has been a wild ride for real estate. Housing stole the spotlight as an unlikely bipartisan issue, and the industry's top donors are allotting dollars based on more than the business. As the nation readies for Tuesday's vote, TRD Senior Reporter Kathryn Brenzel explains why an “unsexy” voter issue will drive votes, and who big names are backing.

In the latest episode of Deconstruct, TRD's Suzannah Cavanaugh finds out how loan specialists fix bad debt – or at least try to – by talking with loan workout specialists Rob Verrone and Job Warshaw of Iron Hound. Verrone works with sponsors to hash out modifications for distressed CMBS debt, and Warshaw brings perspective from the other side of the table — he spent three decades heading up negotiations for special servicer LNR Partners.

This month, two major hurricanes pummeled the southeastern U.S. As locals face the damage, the industry may be having its own reckoning with the existential threat severe weather poses to real estate. Or not. As developers respond to continued demand for high-risk real estate, and insurance premiums crush disaster-prone areas, Suzannah and Joe talk with South Florida reporters Katherine Kallergis and Kate Hinsche about the tension between the industry and Mother Nature.

In less than one cycle, New Jersey-based investor Shaya Prager went from total unknown to the owner of millions of square feet in suburban office properties across the country. Now, as the market turns, he's mixed up with allegations of fraud and at risk of losing much of his fast-grown portfolio. On the latest episode of Deconstruct, TRD's Suzannah Cavanaugh and Joe Lovinger talk with fellow reporters Jess Hardin and Sam Lounsberry to break down the curious case of Shaya Prager.

In the latest episode of Deconstruct... The Federal Reserve slashed interest rates 50 basis points last month to the euphoria of commercial real estate borrowers. One cut does little to move the needle. But the Fed is projecting more cuts to come. Deconstruct breaks down how three different scenarios could affect refinancings.

In the first episode of Deconstruct's fourth season, host Suzannah Cavanaugh and new co-host Joe Lovinger dive into the swelling concerns and a potential turning point for multifamily owners and operators. Listen for their analysis and Suzannah's conversation with Sean Kia and Ryan Andrade, principals of the fast-growing and oft-criticized Tides Equities.

WeWork emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy last month after a herculean effort to cut costs. The task demanded the cooperation of hundreds of landlords and their lenders. Peter Greenspan, the coworking firm's Global Head of Real Estate, brings Deconstruct to those negotiating tables for a look at how WeWork addressed 500 leases worldwide, and offers listeners a preview of the firm's next chapter.

Don't expect interest rates to drop back to zero. But your floating-rate loan may be a bit less painful by year's end. The Real Deal's Deconstruct chatted with BGO's Chief Economist Ryan Severino about when rate cuts will come, the data that shows a cooling economy and what risks the Federal Reserve runs if it cuts too little, too late.

Last week, The Real Deal broke the news that top broker Oren Alexander and his twin brother, Alon, had been accused of rape and sexual assault by at least two women. The complaints detail events that allegedly took place more than a decade ago. But the lawsuits and the nearly 30 people who came forward alleging similar incidents after the story published, according to an attorney representing the two women, speak to a pattern of alleged gender-based violence. Deconstruct speaks with South Florida Bureau Chief Katherine Kallergis, Reporter Sheridan Wall and Senior Editor Ellen Cranley about what we know so far. _Warning: This episode includes descriptions of alleged sexual assault. _This episode was recorded Friday, June 14; this is a developing story. Katherine Kallergis can be reached at kk@therealdeal.com. Sheridan Wall can be reached at sheridan.wall@therealdeal.com. Editor Ellen Cranley can be reached at ellen.cranley@therealdeal.com. _ __

Real estate attorney Isaac Kodsi nabbed Arbor Residences out of foreclosure in late 2023 with two goals: revive the dead condo project and return deposits to former buyers. Not a year later, Kodsi says he nailed the latter goal and is on track to wrap construction by the end of 2024. South Florida Bureau Chief Katherine Kallergis interviewed Kodsi on how he paid back buyers and where sales, led by Sandra Masis of Cervera Real Estate, now stand.

Last month, Goldman Sachs announced it closed a new real estate credit fund, capable of handing out more than $1.7 billion. And with regional banks and other financial institutions reeling back their exposure to commercial real estate, Goldman Sachs sees this as the perfect time to get in on the action. Deconstruct chatted with Goldman Sachs' co-head of alternative capital formation, Jeff Fine, what asset classes it's excited about and the opportunity for private credit in real estate.

Aleksey Chernobelskiy has many pieces of advice for retail investors writing checks for syndicated real estate deals. But, one of the most important: you could lose it all. As many syndicators — firms that pool equity to buy property — grapple with distress, thanks to rising interes rates, investors have been stuck in the crosshairs trying to determine whether to pump more money into a struggling deal, or walk away. Deconstruct chatted with Chernobelskiy about syndicator best practices, what retail investors should know about real estate investing, feeder funds tapping wealth for these deals and what LPs can do if everything goes wrong.

Last month, Gov. Kathy Hochul passed a bombshell housing deal that extended the 421a tax abatement and introduced a new tax break for apartment projects: 485x. Developer Sam Charney of Charney Companies talks the profit potential of 485x compared to 421a, demand for sites eligible for the extension and when rental construction will ramp back up.

It's Deconstruct Live! at The Real Deal's New York Forum. Fortress' Steve Stuart, Benefit Street Partners' Mike Comparato and Urban Standard Capital's Seth Weissman talk bank failures, distressed note buying and lending demand in a live taping of Deconstruct.

Last week, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration said it would move toward reclassifying marijuana as a less dangerous drug — Schedule III instead of Schedule I. The move has big implications for the intersection of cannabis and real estate. Founder and CEO of cannabis REIT NewLake Capital Partners Anthony Coniglio talks tax relief and opportunity for state-licensed operators and capital providers like NewLake.

It's not just tax credits. It's not just zoning by right. To make office-to-residential conversion projects work, developers need all of the above, says Bobby Fijan of Philadelphia-based Form Developers. TRD's Deconstruct chatted with Fijan about some of the legislation, policies, subsidies and programs across the country that have helped push these conversions forward.

Note: This episode was recorded before the state finalized a housing deal. For a detailed break down of what passed check out Senior Reporter Kathryn Brenzel's story here (https://therealdeal.com/new-york/2024/04/20/housing-deal-finally-passes-here-are-the-key-details/): After years of negotiations, Albany has finally fleshed out the framework for a housing deal. Tenants call it a give away to developers. Landlords have their own gripes with an intended boon for rent-stabilized owners. Deconstruct sits down with The Real Deal's Kathryn Brenzel to talk Gov. Kathy Hochul's “parameters of a conceptual agreement.”

Lew Horne thought he was going to run a pet store business. Then, he thought he'd sell computerized systems to wholesale grocers. Neither panned out. Instead, Horne runs CBRE's operations across Los Angeles, Orange County and the Inland Empire, leading advisory services, property and project management and capital markets teams. And in L.A., developers, brokers and brokerage heads have no shortage of hurdles — a stagnant office market, new transfer taxes on sales over $5 million, homelessness and bureaucratic permitting processes. Horne chatted about it all. “Let's get some of these barriers out of the way,” Horne said. “Let's start taking a look at what we need to do to regain the trust of the development community. Let's not restrict them on what to build.” The Real Deal sat down with Horne for The Closing, The Real Deal's signature monthly magazine interview series. Deconstruct is airing an extended version of this interview. To read it, head to TheRealDeal.com.

The foretold wall of CMBS maturities has hit and early data on office loans signals the fears around repayments — that troubled owners won't be able to swing it — are being realized. Deconstruct talks with Moody's Analytics Senior Director and Head of CRE Economic Analysis Kevin Fagan and Director of CRE Economics Matt Reidy.

For the most part, construction lending has dried up across the country, with more and more regional banks pulling back from financing ground-up real estate projects. But Kennedy Wilson, a lender based out of Los Angeles, sees opportunity in that. With more lenders on the sidelines, Kennedy Wilson can take advantage of lending to what it determines are the best borrowers and the best projects. And by being active, it can help take some construction loans off regional banks' balance sheets. The Real Deal's Deconstruct chatted with Thomas Whitesell, Kennedy Wilson's head of debt originations, about how the firm is choosing what to lend on, its optimism for multifamily and the difficulties with office-to-resi conversions.

When the National Association of Realtors announced it had proposed to settle a landmark antitrust suit over real estate agent commissions for $418 million, everyone had questions. The Real Deal's Deconstruct breaks down what is changing — and what is not. TRD reporters Sheridan Wall and Harrison Connery discuss NAR's new rule prohibiting broker compensation offers on the MLS, or multiple listing service, and what this means for agents and homebuyers going forward. Deconstruct also chatted with Michael Nourmand, who runs Los Angeles-based brokerage Nourmand & Associates, about how he thinks not much is set to change — and noted that commissions have always been negotiable.

In December, Democrats in Congress introduced a bill that would put an end to hedge fund ownership of single-family homes. As demand for single-family rentals continues to grow, developers specializing in build-to-rent claim they'll get burnt. Deconstruct breaks down who's in the crosshairs and the likelihood that legislation can rein in the investment giants.

From Chicago to San Francisco, office buildings continue to trade at astonishing discounts and reappraisals show value declines as high as 80 percent. But is there further left to fall? The Real Deal's Chicago Bureau Chief Sam Lounsberry and West Coast Bureau Chief Isabella Farr weigh in.

Gil Dezer knows how to build branded condos. From the Porsche Design Tower to the Armani Residences in South Florida, Dezer is now focused on building the Bentley Residences. Despite growing up in New York City, Dezer is now Miami through and through and remains bullish about the city and South Florida in general — and believes people will keep shelling out big bucks to live there. Deconstruct chatted with Dezer about pre-sales at the Bentley Residences, how he's thinking about a construction loan and why he still thinks he has the best land in the country. (Plus, some of the cars he's recently added to his collection).

If you're on RETwit (now Real Estate X), you've probably read Don Tepman's posts. You just didn't know it. Tepman, who heads University Avenue Partners, is StripMallGuy, the once anonymous X account that amassed over 200k followers since 2021. Tepman, now unmasked, sits down with Deconstruct to talk why he went public and of course, what's next for strip malls.

For the last six months, Arbor Realty Trust has been the target of a prominent short seller, Viceroy Research, which claims that a huge chunk of its collateralized loan obligation, or CLO, portfolio is in trouble. Arbor, though it denies the short seller's numbers, said it is experiencing challenges and delinquencies are set to rise. And the company is not afraid to go after non-performing borrowers. Deconstruct sat down with Gabriel Bernarde, one of the individuals behind Viceroy, to chat about the reports, and then dug into Arbor's fourth-quarter earnings.

After the 2008 financial crisis, investment managers came up with a new securitized product: the collateralized loan obligation, or CLO, for commercial real estate. It was designed to correct some of the risks that came with its predecessor, the collateralized debt obligation. But what exactly is the CRE CLO and how does it work? Deconstruct enlisted attorney and CLO expert Stewart McQueen at Dechert to break down the product.

New York Community Bank reported a surprise loss in the fourth quarter, took an axe to its dividend and socked away over $500 million for commercial real estate losses. The bank's stock sunk to a 23-year low and other regional lenders fell in response. Is NYCB a red flag or a one-off for CRE distress in the banking space? Deconstruct digs in.

Not many commercial brokers branch out to start their own brokerages. But in 2015, Kyle Matthews did. Today, his Nashville-based firm Matthews Real Estate has done more than $50 billion in deals and about 650 agents. Most of what Matthews is focused on is advising clients — helping buyers and sellers sort out investments and identify pockets of opportunity. At a time when some asset classes (hint: multifamily and office) are struggling across the Sun Belt, Matthews thinks there's never been a better time for brokers to take on this role. The Real Deal's Deconstruct chatted with Matthews about how values dropping presents an opportunity for buyers and what he's predicting across the Sun Belt in 2024.

Heading into 2024, rate cuts are the silver lining on everyone's mind. Still, Ron Dickerman, founder and president of private equity firm Madison International Realty, sees 2024 as a “transitional year.” As capital cautiously comes off the sidelines, Dickerman talks opportunity in the wall of maturities and which asset classes he's eyeing. Hint: Cold storage is on the come-up

Pull back the cover of The Real Deal's January issue and you'll find NIMBY vs. YIMBY battles unfolding across the country. Deconstruct talks with TRD senior reporters and bureau chiefs to unpack what's driving development and blocking construction in New York, South Florida, Los Angeles, Austin and Chicago.

Imagine a scenario where you, a developer, could pick a site on a map and discover exactly what you could build there. No more hiring experts, contacting the city, finding ways to match zoning requirements. Deepblocks, run by Olivia Ramos, is trying to do exactly that and more, using artificial intelligence. Deconstruct sat down with Ramos at The Real Deal's annual Miami Forum last November to chat about the firm, concerns around AI and how its applications are spreading across the real estate industry.

The Real Deal dubbed New York's last legislative session the “housing session that wasn't.” Developers desperate for a 421a tax abatement replacement went home empty handed. Tenant advocates saw no movement on the renter protection good cause eviction. Could 2024 be different? Alicia Glen, housing expert and deputy mayor for housing and economic development under the De Blasio Administration, thinks so. “I do feel there is a path forward,” Glen said. “We just need leadership to drive the deal.”

In early November, the Deconstruct team flew to Miami for The Real Deal's annual showcase and forum. We're bringing you an interview we did live with the founders of Kaizen AI, Jay Shah and Anuj Shah. Kaizen uses artificial intelligence to analyze building designs, then retrofits them to be the most profitable project for any given space, taking developer wants into account.

You know the story: interest rates rose and deal flow slowed. After a year and half of sluggish trading, what's next for NYC's investment sales market? Avison Young's Head of Tri-State Investment Sales James Nelson lays out the market dynamics set to drive office and multifamily deals. Ariel Property Advisors' Founder Shimon Shkury gets granular on the distress affecting the rent-stabilized market.

"It's the case of the haves and the have nots." Real estate investment firm Ivanhoé Cambridge is facing the same issues as every other investment firm: how do you correctly manage an office portfolio right now? For the firm's head of office and life sciences investments, Jonathan Pearce, it's all about separating assets into buckets: the good ones worth throwing new cash on, and the ones underperforming. Deconstruct chatted with Pearce about how he's thinking about investing in office right now, opportunities for preferred and mezzanine financing and how it helps to have the support of a hundred-billion-dollar-plus parent company.

In early November, the Deconstruct team flew to Miami for The Real Deal's annual showcase and forum. We're bringing you two interviews we recorded on site at the event. First, you'll hear from Miami star broker Dora Puig about the state of the residential market. After that, Edgardo Defortuna and Ana Christina Defortuna at Fortune International Group talk about the hotel-branded residence market, new development in South Florida and why there are so many New York restaurants in Miami.

On the last day of October, a jury found the National Association of Realtors and two brokerages — HomeServices of America and Keller Williams Realty — guilty of conspiring to artificially inflate broker commissions. The verdict immediately spurred a copycat suit and could inspire dozens more. The Department of Justice is eyeing its own case and policy changes could be on the table. The Real Deal's Sheridan Wall and Harrison Connery break down the case and its aftermath.

Fredrik Eklund is now actually on 24/7. The "Million Dollar Listing" star broker and his partner John Gomes have launched a new AI tool called Maya, which allows buyers and agents to dig through listings and ask the bot general real estate questions. The Real Deal's Deconstruct sat down with Eklund to chat about his new AI venture and took Maya for a test drive.

Two years back, when money was still cheap, a new crop of investors was getting in on the red-hot multifamily market. Syndicators — investors who pool money to buy properties — turned to floating-rate debt to quickly close on deals when demand was at its peak. After a year and a half of rate hikes, many of those fledgling investors are now grappling with distress. Nuvo Capital Partners' Brian Underdahl discusses the catalysts behind that boom and how his firm is working with borrowers to save troubled deals.

"A slow-moving train wreck." That's what Daniel McNamara, the founder of Polpo Capital, calls the upcoming wall of maturities — the massive amount of commercial mortgage-backed securities coming due in the next year or two. Many, especially those who used floating-rate debt are facing a triple threat: the triple whammy of higher interest rates, lower valuations and more conservative lending. All of that is making it difficult for commercial landlords to refinance and leaving CMBS investors at risk.

In the early '90s, Ethan Penner pioneered the commercial mortgage-backed security. Thirty years later, the father of CMBS breaks down the investment product's origin story, the writing on the wall before the Great Recession and the CRE downturn of today.

Tighter lending conditions have proved a thorn in the side of many Miami developers. But not Swire Properties. Henry Bott, the new president of the firm's American arm, discusses development plans for the last piece of land on Brickell Key, plus the mainland office supertall it's building with Related.

As the market for traditional lending, through regional banks or commercial mortgage-backed securities, has dried up, more private credit lenders and financiers have hopped into the real estate space. And Arkhouse, a private equity firm focused on deals to privatize public real estate investment trusts, sees opportunity in that. The Real Deal's Deconstruct chats with Arkhouse managing partners Gavriel Kahane and Jon Blackwell about why they think the public markets undervalue real estate and why this boom in private credit is good for their business.

Mauricio Umansky is a busy guy. His brokerage The Agency opened a New York office last year, then a Hamptons outpost early this summer. His firm and family star in the Netflix series Buying Beverly Hills. Season 2 wrapped filming in July. And this spring the broker released his first book — The Dealmaker. It's a guide to success in business and in life. In Fresh Air's 'How Parking Explains The World' host Terry Gross interviews author Henry Grabar on how parking codes, lots and garages limit the creation of affordable housing. Listen here (https://www.npr.org/2023/05/08/1174771693/how-parking-explains-the-world).

Related Companies is building offices in Chicago, Austin and West Palm Beach. That's right — offices. At a time when so many firms are pausing office development, citing a lack of tenant demand and the shift towards remote work, Related is plowing ahead with developments. The Real Deal's Deconstruct chatted with Related's head of office development, Philippe Visser, about why the firm is still building new office stock, despite market headwinds.

In June, a group of investors who invested in a Nightingale Properties-sponsored deal on crowdfunding platform CrowdStreet found out their money was missing. The Real Deal's podcast Deconstruct looks at what happened, the risks with crowdfunding and FundRebel, a new platform that is trying to differentiate itself. Guests: Ian Ippolito, founder of Private Investor Club and the Real Estate Crowdfunding Review Mark Drachman, FundRebel CEO Credits: CrowdStreet, WFAA