Issues, interviews, and insights into the U.S. housing market. Twice monthly takes on what’s happening in the housing market today, and what might be happening tomorrow. From the John Burns Real Estate Consulting team. John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC provides independent research and consu…
John Burns Real Estate Consulting
Placemaking is the art hiding within the banalities of residential development. It is the color on canvas that transforms square footage and dwelling units per acre into homes, and homes into communities. DMB Development has been making great places since 1984, and the company's President and CEO, Brent Herrington, has been helping them do that for almost 40 years. Brent provides his take on the key ingredients in the best recipes for great placemaking, highlights some of the best of those places, and, as a bonus, chats about DMB's partnership with Disney and the new Storyliving communities that are beginning to take shape.
Spring is a critical time of year for the housing market. The weather warms, foot traffic surges, and builders can bank sales. It is historically the height of the market, particularly in cooler climes. At JBREC, we constantly interact with new homebuilders, resale brokers, land brokers, building products folks, and other actors in the housing space to keep thumb and forefinger on the carotid artery of the housing market. Survey leaders Dillan Krieg, Cara Lavender, and Jody Kahn walk us through sales, incentives, buyers, strategies and tactics, what's working and what's not, and what headwinds have been heaviest in these unsettled times. And, as a special treat, we spend a little time with the legendary Jody Kahn, who shares some lessons learned from a storied career spanning almost forty years and still counting.
From Gas Stations to Gross Margins: Ryan Marshall Runs PulteGroup Like a Well-Oiled Team by John Burns Research and Consulting
The best ideas are the ones that seem obvious—“Why didn't I think of that?” Sean Dobson saw the pile-up coming before the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) crashed the housing market. Sean and his company, Amherst, built a model to assess the true value of every home in America and bet right on what followed the GFC. Sean then had another great idea. Families who were foreclosed on were pushed out of the for-sale market but still needed a suitable place to live. So Sean pivoted to single-family rental (SFR) in the early days when there was still plenty of doubt from investors and market watchers. Today, Amherst is a diverse financial services company for some of the largest investor entities in the world; think pension funds, major endowments, foundations, and sovereign wealth funds. SFR remains a key focus. Sean shares his insights on the SFR market, housing supply and NIMBYism, housing affordability, off-site construction, and more. Here are some highlights from the latest New Home Insights podcast episode.
Most of us, even the CEO of a major homebuilder, don't have a master plan for our lives. Sometimes, fate takes us to a place we never thought we would be. Sheryl Palmer's journey started as a young advertising expert at McDonald's, wound through homebuilder Del Webb, and eventually put her at Morrison Homes when it merged with Taylor Woodrow. Thirty days after that marriage in 2007, new builder Taylor Morrison asked her to take the reins. She hasn't checked her rearview mirror since. Sheryl Palmer, Chairman and CEO of the sixth-largest homebuilder in the country by volume, joins us for this episode of New Home Insights.
Zillow is the unquestioned king of the existing home space, but it is not just about matching buyers with a resale. Zillow is big in the new home world as well. The company is partnering with homebuilders to empower them to reach potential buyers better, joining the melee for a buyer segment that often doesn't realize they have other options. Qadra Evans is the Director of Industry Relations and Sales for New Construction at Zillow. Qadra helms Zillow's efforts to help homebuilders use Zillow to expand their reach and put them on the radar of homebuyers who are not always reachable. Plus, we have some bold predictions for the 2025 housing market! Let's review some highlights from my chat with Qadra on the latest episode of the New Home Insights podcast.
In April, the New Home Insights podcast looked at how the spring selling season was shaping up with some of our resident market experts, and you loved it. It was one of our most listened-to episodes. So, in this episode, we are joined by the JBREC survey team—Jody Kahn, Cara Lavender, and Dillan Krieg—to review 2024 and look forward to how the housing market is shaping up. They dig into a wide range of results from our monthly surveys of new homebuilders nationwide and distill that into an array of trends and insights.
With an election days away, politics is top of mind for almost everyone. So, now seemed like a good time for the podcast to delve into the politics and policies that impact housing. David Howard is the CEO of the National Rental Home Council (NRHC), which advocates mainly for the single-family rental (SFR) sector. David walks us through the ins and outs of national, state, and local housing policies. We had a wide-ranging conversation primarily focused on the rental market, but we also touched on the for-sale world.
To celebrate the 100th episode of the New Home Insights podcast, John Burns, founder and CEO of John Burns Research and Consulting, joins us. But it is not just John and me sipping a delicious IPA and commiserating. There is that, but this episode takes a 30,000-foot view of the long cycles of the housing market before delving into some current hot buttons—mortgage rates, affordability, public and private builders, and more.
Diverse, tech-savvy, innovative—all fair when describing Pretium, one of the biggest real estate investment firms you may have heard of. Pretium has helped change how we invest in real estate. Pretium is impacting single-family rental (SFR), build-to-rent (BTR), fix and flip, mortgage originations, and even homebuilding through a menu of investment choices. Pretium Founder and CEO Don Mullen has been the primary driver behind Pretium's rapid growth. Don recently joined our CEO, John Burns, at our Rental Communities Summit, and our latest New Home Insights Podcast episode is the result.
Big builders seem to be getting bigger every year. Growth might have some drawbacks, but for the most part, it makes a builder strong. Think operational efficiency, expanding your pipeline, access to capital, depth of skills, and expertise. You can grow organically, but you can grow faster through a smart merger or acquisition. That's where Rich Moriarty comes in. Rich has been in investment banking for 35 years, much of that at financial behemoth Citibank. He co-founded Vestra Advisors last year and hasn't skipped a beat, quickly becoming a key player in the homebuilder public finance and mergers-and-acquisitions (M&A) space. Join us for the latest episode of the New Home Insights podcast, where Rich walks us through the nuts and bolts of M&A, the strategy, the market conditions, the outlook, and more.
What will your kitchen and bathroom look like a year from now, two years from now, five years from now? That's what Bill Darcy, Global President and CEO of the National Kitchen and Bath Association (NKBA), thinks about every day. This perspective provides Bill with a look under the hood of this sector, and he shares what he sees on this episode of The New Home Insights podcast. Please note that we recorded this podcast prior to the recently released 2Q24 KBMI report, in which K&B industry pros were slightly less bullish on 2024 growth. In the second quarter, the KBMI Index shifted down to 54 as firms lowered their expectations for near-term revenue growth.
One of the hardest things for a successful company is to stop doing what made it successful and start doing something that will stretch its success into the future. It is a risk and a cost, but it can be an investment if done right. So when Fortune Brands Innovations shed an iconic cabinetry brand, CEO Nick Fink had some anxious moments. But that decision and the ensuing journey have allowed Fortune Brands to expand their product offerings, providing a more diversified imprint on our homes. They made a strategic decision to focus on what they did best and play in the parts of the home market that they believed had the best prospects. In this episode of The New Home Insights podcast, Nick joined me to talk about that evolution and his journey and share insights about Fortune Brands' strategies, goals, values, and core commitment to technology and data.
To grow or not to grow is often the question for a homebuilder. For Doug Bauer, CEO and co-founder of Tri Pointe Homes, the answer has always been “grow.” In 2009, when Doug Bauer and his partners started Tri Pointe, growth was a huge risk. But they pulled it off, and now Tri Pointe Homes is one of the top public homebuilders in the nation with a footprint across the southern third of the country. On this episode of the New Home Insights podcast, Doug Bauer shares some highlights of Tri Pointe's growth over the years.
If you have anything to do with the housing market in Texas, you have heard of Hillwood Communities. If you are from elsewhere in the country and have not heard of Hillwood, here's your chance. All across the great state of Texas, Hillwood is building some of the best-designed and most successful master-planned communities in the US. They have achieved this with expert placemaking, which Hillwood defines this way: "We create places where relationships with neighbors evolve into friendships and those friendships begin to feel like family." On this episode of the New Home Insights podcast, our guest is Fred Balda, the president of Hillwood Communities. Fred has guided Hillwood Communities for over three decades and he shares his approach, outlook, and take on all things master plan. He and Hillwood have a track record that says you should listen.
Demographics impact housing in a few massive foundational ways and a thousand small ways. Price, product, place—demographics help define them. On this episode of the New Home Insights Podcast, our guests are Chris Porter and Eric Finnigan, two leaders at John Burns Research and Consulting who live and breathe demographics and what they mean for housing.
This episode of the New Home Insights Podcast delves into the intricacies of land banking, a crucial component of the real estate industry, with insights from Kate Kaminski, the COO of Walton Global. Kate shares her journey from the home building industry to her pivotal role at Walton, a company that has significantly influenced land banking in North America since its shift from Canada to the US in 2006. Walton Global, a family-owned enterprise for over 45 years, specializes in land asset and investment management, focusing on raising capital globally to invest in various land assets, primarily in the southern United States.
Every year, the housing sector eagerly awaits the spring selling season. With the holidays in the rearview and the weather warming, it's time to buy. If you are a purist about seasonal starting dates, it is not technically spring yet, but don't be that way. Jody Kahn and Dillan Krieg are surveying homebuilders every month for John Burns Research and Consulting. They keep tabs on the housing market nationwide and at a granular level. We chatted with both of them on the latest episode of the New Home Insights podcast, so tune in for some spring selling season insights.
Dive into the heart of a private home builder's innovative approach to sales and marketing with Caroline Simmel, SVP of Sales and Marketing at Empire Communities. Learn about the unique synergy between sales and marketing at the company, and how they're tackling market volatility with data-driven insights. We discuss "Homebase," Empire Communities' unique model for enhancing the home buying journey, and the role of technology in shaping the future of real estate. Lastly, Caroline offers some insights into creating communities that resonate with diverse buyer segments, all driven by lifestyle preferences.
Dean Wehrli interviews Stephanie McCarty, CMO of Taylor Morrison, exploring their innovative approach to sales and marketing in home building. Learn about their journey through mergers, the fusion of traditional and modern marketing, and the importance of understanding evolving consumer preferences. Gain insights into how Taylor Morrison is reshaping the industry by prioritizing brand identity, customer engagement, and digital transformation.
Scott Laurie and Olson Homes know that you have to be smart when you are one of the smaller fish swimming in the sea of big fish. You have to be nimble. You have to play the long game. You have to be omnivorous. You have to seek opportunity where others may not see it. Olson Homes is a Southern California builder with a laser focus on what they build best and where they will sell best. However, the lessons learned from Scott's experience as a small builder are universal.
The pandemic taught many lessons. In housing, one was that disruptions in the things we build homes with can, unsurprisingly, bring the industry to its knees. As 2023 draws to a close, we ask: Are we finally past all of that—the rising prices, broken supply chains, and interminable waits for everything from a garage door to window latches that forced builders to wait weeks to sell a home that was otherwise ready to go? Can we finally stop using the phrase “post-pandemic” and just move on? Matt Saunders, JBREC's Senior Vice President of Building Products, lives, eats, and breathes this world. On the latest episode of the New Home Insights podcast, he joins me to walk us through the latest in building products and trends in remodeling and discuss the future of these spaces.
The real estate broker is the conduit between most people and the biggest purchase of their life—a home. Mark McLaughlin started Pacific Union International, one of the best upmarket brokerages in California, and now is the Chief Real Estate Strategist for Compass, one of the best and biggest brokerages in the nation. He is not just a broker; as the title implies, he is a strategic and visionary thinker who views the brokerage world from far above. On this episode of the New Home Insights podcast, Mark takes us through some key questions facing the brokerage community now and in the future.
Do not call Kyla Scanlon a social media influencer. She is a social media educator. Through a swelling number of followers on YouTube, Instagram, and TikTok, Kyla has built a reputation as someone who can accessibly explain complex economic and financial concepts to a primarily Gen Z audience hungry to better understand the complex world around them. That sounds like the kind of person we want on the New Home Insights podcast. Kyla thought so too, so tune into this episode.
Call us obsessed with the 55+ housing space, but we do follow the demographics. The 55+ space enjoys a population bulge that has at least another decade run to it. This has enticed many folks to dip a toe in the water, but fewer have taken the full-body plunge. Though it is fueled by the demographics, the 55+ space is filled with savvy buyers and ever-changing wants and needs. This is definitely one of those “you need to do it right or don't do it at all” things. It's the definition of high risk but high reward. Deborah Blake, Founder and Principal of The Ipsum Group, has been doing it right for a long time. From Sun City to Solera and beyond, Deborah has been in the trenches of age-qualified communities. She joins the podcast to discuss the kinds of homes you should build, what you should include in them, the amenities, the marketing, and the consumer. If you want to learn the tricks of the trade in this tricky housing space, spend the next hour with Deborah Blake.
When Meritage Homes CEO Phillippe Lord took over the helm of one of the biggest home builders in America, he was almost immediately faced with an existential crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic was unlike anything in living memory. After ensuring everyone in the Meritage family was safe and stayed that way, Phillippe realized they would have to change to navigate this new world. Not only would they need to change due to the current crisis, but they would need to embrace permanent change and ingrained flexibility as the surest way to manage long-term success. Phillippe joins New Home Insights podcast host Dean Wehrli on the latest episode.
With those low mortgage rate golden handcuffs keeping a huge chunk of the existing home market in cryogenic stasis, the new home sector has thrived. There is even a case to be made for continued good times even if resale listings begin to rise and mortgage rates remain elevated. There are certainly hurdles ahead, but our Director of Research and Managing Principal, Rick Palacios Jr., makes the case for continued new home resilience on the latest episode of the New Home Insights podcast.
Stephanie Casper, the Chief Revenue Officer of Kiavi, joins our podcast to discuss how Kiavi is leveraging proprietary technology, in-house data models, machine learning models, and AI to make the process of borrowing money for the purposes of investing in residential real estate easier for their customers. Join us as Dean and Stephanie unpack the current dynamics of the 'fix and flip' market and the single-family rental sector. This is a must-listen for anyone interested in the intersection of technology and real estate investment.
Planning officials fear them. Housing developers and builders loathe them. Ever present and hard to appease, they are the NIMBY—the “not in my backyard” anti-housing advocate. The stereotype of an angry, finger-wagging busybody always saying "no" to new housing may be an unfair stereotype, but their impact is real. Increasingly, though, there is an alternative seeking to move the needle in the opposite direction. Counter to the NIMBY crowd is the “yes in my backyard” crowd, better known as the YIMBYs. On this episode of the New Home Insights podcast, we meet one. Laura Foote is the Executive Director of YIMBY Action. With her help, we explore this movement and its strategies, failures, and successes.
Could your home survive a spin on the surface of the sun? No? A NileBuilt home could (probably). That's over 2,000 degrees Fahrenheit. That's ghost pepper hot. That's middle of a microwaved Hot Pocket hot. NileBuilt is a materials company taking a step into the production home world. The critical difference is NileBuilt uses a concrete material with a hyper-insulating core to build its homes. This makes their homes fire resistant, efficient, quiet, and cool. We thought that sounded interesting, so we talked with Scott Long, the cofounder and CEO of NileBuilt, on this episode of the New Home Insights podcast.
When homeowners are surveyed about which rooms are most critical to get right, the kitchen and the primary bath typically top the list. But that doesn't make it easy. There is an ongoing battle between functionality and aesthetics, and the struggle to stay on top of trends is constant. Brian Juedes, National Vice President of Product Design at Taylor Morrison, fights this battle every day. If there are trade-offs to be made that impact the desirability of your home, you had better make the right ones. Brian has done the hard work so now, after listening to this New Home Insights podcast episode, you won't have to.
Sean Roberts, CEO of Villa, joins our podcast to discuss what he's seeing in the ADU market and how his company is providing solutions for the current housing market shortage and affordability issue.
iBuying exploded onto the housing scene a few years ago with the potential to change how we buy and sell our homes. After Zillow and Redfin exited the sector, Opendoor now controls the lion's share of the iBuyer market. As higher mortgage rates and the threat of economic slowdown have slowed housing in general, where do Opendoor and iBuying go from here? How will Opendoor adapt to changing market forces? Will they try new tactics and develop new strategies? What will they do more of or less of? And how will Opendoor interact with other major market players, such as new home builders? On this episode of New Home Insights, Dean Wehrli talks with Alex Toth and Derek Schairer, who manage Opendoor's home builder program, about how Opendoor plans not only to survive but thrive as they evolve. Note: This episode was recorded on February 16, 2023
Chris Porter, JBREC's own Chief Demographer and co-author of "Big Shifts Ahead", joins the podcast to discuss how long-term demographic trends are ultimately going to shape the demand for housing. Chris shares some insights and findings from our latest white paper, which is a deep-dive on how much the US housing market is undersupplied and what would be a reasonable amount of construction to bring the US into balance.
The New Home Insights podcast is always trying to define the future of housing. Market trends, design trends, economic trends. But what about how we actually build our homes? What once seemed like something for the far-off future is here now—3D-printed homes. Century Communities is a trailblazer in the emerging world of 3D-printed homes. Genji Nakata, Executive Vice President of National Operations at Century Communities, helped us explore this world in the latest episode of New Home Insights.
Kris Maher, Senior Vice President of Design at Rancho Mission Viejo, heads up a “creative collective” that guides their master plan placemaking. Join us for some of the lessons Kris has taken to heart, and her thoughts on placemaking—not just next year, but ten years from now.
Eric Finnigan of John Burns Real Estate Consulting is a thought leader in the remodeling space. Let Eric walk you through the basics, the nuances, the future, the economics, and even the demographics, of the remodeling world.
Dean is joined by Ryan Frazier, co-founder and CEO of Arrived Homes, a company who is taking a unique angle in the world of single-family housing investments. Arrived Homes is focused on providing a seamless experience for small time investors who want to invest in real estate, but don't want all the operational hassle that may come along with it.
You may not know what ESG is but you should. ESG is an investment strategy. It stands for Environmental, Social, and Governance. DuPont is one of the biggest companies in the world and they take ESG very seriously. To help us understand why and what that means, we have on the podcast two key people at DuPont, a bigger part of the housing sector than you might think. Alan Hubbell leads DuPont's Performance Building Solutions residential marketing team, and Shawn Hunter is DuPont's leader of sustainable solutions for their building and construction business unit.
Dr. Michael Roizen joins our podcast to discuss some concepts from his new book, The Great Age Reboot: Cracking the Longevity Code for a Younger Tomorrow. Dr. Roizen presents his thesis around the human lifespan increasing, and what it means for the future of housing.
This episode features Fred Pierce, President and CEO of Pierce Education Properties (PEP), who discusses how his business helped pioneer the student housing sector. With an acquisition history of more than 27,000 acquired beds, PEP is a national leader in the business of student housing, ownership, operation, and development.
For this episode of The New Home Insights podcast we talked to not one but two experts. Greg Brooks with the Executive Council on Construction Supply and our own Chris Beard at John Burns Real Estate Consulting both closely monitor the building products space. Greg and Chris joined us to share their insights on housing supply chain disruptions, what's happening right now, and what might the future hold.
Transparency is one of the key value-adds Renters Warehouse offers its investors. In this week's podcast Kevin Ortner, President and CEO of Renters Warehouse, shares how his company not only increases transparency to residential real estate investors but also increases efficiency in an industry that has historically lagged in technological advancements.
Matt Damon was onto something in the movie Downsizing. Housing shortages, sky high prices—what's someone without Matt Damon's crypto money to do? Maybe you go small. Before we resort to shrinking people and entire cities in order to save on costs, let us have a listen to this week's episode with Sheri Koones. Sheri is a journalist and author of numerous books related to smaller living. In this podcast episode, she explains what accessory dwelling units (ADUs) are and why they have increased in popularity in tandem with the small home movement.
The residential real estate market has been speeding uphill since mid 2019, with a speed bump in the Spring of 2020. As we near the peak, anticipation of what is on the other side anxiously awaits. When will we pass the peak? How steep is the grade going downhill? Are there guardrails? On this week's podcast episode, John Burns, Founder and CEO of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, gives us his take on today's housing market and what our team believes is the most likely scenario going forward. Note: Recorded on May 31, 2022
Jay Parsons, Vice President of RealPage, joins our podcast and shares his insights on the roaring apartment market.
In our last of three BFR-related episodes, we are joined by Joel Kirstein who shares insights on Berkadia's role as a conduit for investment and capital in the build-for-rent space.
In our second of three BFR-related episodes, we are joined by Branden Lombardi, President of BB Living, who shares his inspiring life story and his insight on build-for-rent as an asset class.
Successful restaurants have great service, the right menu, and a long-term outlook. A good location also doesn't hurt. Mark Wolf, CEO and founder of AHV Communities, has a similar mindset when executing successful build-for-rent (BFR) communities. Mark joins our podcast to discuss what it takes to execute a successful BFR community.
As the old adage goes, you can't make more land. For home builders, anything that helps facilitate land deals is huge. That's where Steve Benson and his team come in—they provide land banking services for builders. Steve is the CEO of Essential Housing, and on this podcast he walks us through the nuances of land banking, a booming method to get deals done.
You would not go to a second website to pay for your Amazon order, so why should you have to deal with multiple groups when purchasing a home? That is what inspired Court Cunningham to start Orchard. Orchard is providing next-level service by integrating almost the entire home buying process onto one platform. Learn how Orchard is innovating as an “iBroker” (a term cleverly coined by our host Dean Wehrli) by checking out this episode.