Podcasts about john burns real estate consulting

 Before you listen to this article, please check out my Carfagno Cleaning article, "Home Trends that Intersect with Cleaning". I credit my friend Mary Ann Alig of Fox & Roach Berkshire Hathaway Realtors for the content that drove this article and this podcast episode. Mary Ann shared 8 home trends that realtors are seeing for this new decade. Trends like these tend to change every decade and currently include barn vs pocket doors, white interiors, shiplap, matching furniture, accent walls, rose gold, open concept, and multigenerational homes. In my article, I showed how these trends affect cleaning professionals. I also hint to all business owners how important it is to know your industry trends so you can stay ahead of them.There is one trend that I'd like to dig into on this podcast. It's the rise of the multigenerational home. Fast Company in a 2019 article states, But for complex reasons that still puzzle researchers, multigenerational households are now on the rise once more. As many as 41% of Americans buying a home are considering accommodating an elderly parent or an adult child, according to a survey conducted by John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Living with your parents (or your adult children) has plenty of potential benefits–everyone tends to save money, it can potentially benefit health outcomes, and you get to spend more time together." Did you hear me? 41% of Americans are considering this in the 2020's. That's more than a trend. It's a paradigm shift. I want all cleaners out there, regardless of your business model to hear me. If you don't get in front of this shift and ensure your company is a leader in multigenerational house cleaning, you could be out of business in 10 years! It's crazy! Now, I'd like to talk to the solo cleaners that are actually doing the sales and cleaning. How do you position yourself to acquire clients like this? It's simple really. When you clean for one generation like a millennial couple or retirees, you must earn their trust to stay there long term. When you clean for two generations like a family with kids, you need an even greater trust factor. And if you follow where I'm going here, you need even more trust to clean for 3 generations under the same roof. The answer is trust building. The better you are at trust building, the more completely you can serve 3 generations under the same roof. This leads to more money per client and referrals to others just like them. Imagine this. You have a client like I do. Andy is the dad. His adult children live with him and his father Don lives with him. I have invested time during cleaning visits to get to know all 3 generations. Don has even become a friend and mentor to me locally. I do a great job at their home and have earned a lot of trust. Do you think Andy will refer me? And by the way, he owns a local restaurant and knows a lot of people. Yes, he will. I am positioned nicely to reap a harvest with multigenerational homes because I clean them now with good reputation. I can share that on my website and with new prospective clients. I urge you to do the same.Read the rest of this article at the Smart Cleaning School website 

“We're really working toward this end-to-end solution where a contractor can start with their estimate, get to a budget, and then push all that information that they're gathering during pre-construction out to the field to be able to manage projects more efficiently. So, a holistic sort of solution for our contractor.”Aaron Henderson, Strategic Sales & Product Marketing at STACK Construction TechnologiesWe've spoken about the delicate relationship between construction and technology with several of our guests, and STACK Construction Technologies has a vision in the same vein. Technological advances have propelled rapid growth in many areas of life and industry and hold tremendous promise for construction.Aaron Henderson of STACK shares methods for tailoring tech to each customer's needs and the power of cloud-based software for take-offs and estimating. For many contractors, estimating relies on an old-fashioned approach, with paper forms and "that's how we've always done it."Transforming the approach to construction starts with estimating for STACK, but they have plans to affect every stage of a project. Tune in for a look at the bright future.Topics discussed in this interview:- Remodeling forecast from a Qualified Remodeler webinar- What does STACK do?- How did Aaron end up in construction technology?- Who is the typical user?- How long does it take to get started?- How does STACK make technology understandable and usable?- How does STACK alleviate supply chain issues?- The advantages of cloud-based services- How does STACK help with the skilled labor shortage?- What steps can we take to make construction a desirable career?- A.I. and future implications for construction- Embracing change- Rapid fire questionsResources Mentioned:Qualified Remodeler Webinar with Eric Finnegan of John Burns Real Estate Consulting: https://lnkd.in/gtMjhpNwTo get in touch with Aaron, email him at ahenderson@stackct.com or visit stackct.com to learn how to streamline your processes.For more Construction Disruption, listen on Apple Podcasts or YouTubeConnect with us on Facebook, Instagram, or LinkedInThis episode was produced by Isaiah Industries, Inc.This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrpChartable - https://chartable.com/privacy

US Federal Reserve officials struck a hawkish tone in their first comments since the central bank held the policy interest rate steady at its meeting this week but signaled that rate hikes will likely resume. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that changes in US credit conditions since the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in early March were 'in line' with financial tightening that was already underway due to Federal Reserve interest rate increases - comments that downplayed the idea a worse-than-anticipated contraction in credit might make further Fed rate increases less necessary.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss a report by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, indicating that the monthly premium on home ownership is up to $1,030 per month — up 17 percent from this month last year, when the difference favored renters by $884 per month.Chris and Saied look at the staggering $1.3 billion every day the government pays in interest on its debt. This means that a substantial portion of taxpayer money is being allocated solely to cover the interest costs of the national debt.They also offer some thoughts on Economist Nouriel Roubini's doubling down on dire warnings about the US, saying the nation is headed for a recession as a combo of higher interest rates, sticky inflation, and a credit squeeze barrel the economy.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You'll Learn in this Show:Nouriel Roubini's assertion that recession is now 'certain.'Why economists are saying say it's a near-certainty that housing inflation will fall.Why the hiring boom is hiding the fact that employees are working fewer hours.And so much more...Resources:"...there will 'certainly' be a recession: Nouriel Roubini" (Yahoo! Finance via YouTube)"Fed policymakers deliver hawkish vibe after pause decision" (Reuters)"Why economists say it's a near certainty that housing inflation will soon fall" (CNBC)"The government is paying $1.3 billion in interest on its debt every day" (Wealth via Instagram)"Tech-Stock Boom Pits AI Against the Fed" (The Wall Street Journal)"Lots of Hiring, but Not So Much Working" (The Wall Street Journal)"Biden Touts Job Growth in First Re-Election Campaign Rally" (The Wall Street Journal)"A recession is ‘at our doorstep,' but investors are falling for a goldilocks scenario, Wells Fargo says. It ‘isn't going to end all that well'" (Yahoo! Finance)

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending April 15th, 2023… we have two inflation reports, the minutes of the last Fed meeting, and the results of a survey on an acceptable mortgage rate.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week. The government released two reports on inflation that show prices are rising more slowly, but that inflation is still too high. The Consumer Price Index or CPI shows a small .1% increase in March, mostly due to lower food and gas prices. Energy prices were down 3.5% while groceries fell .3% including an 11% tumble for egg prices. Grocery prices are still 8.4% higher year-over-year, but those declines helped slow the yearly rate from 6% to 5%, which is the lowest we've seen since May of 2021. (1)   The news isn't quite as good for the core rate, which strips out food and gas. That was up .4% and “raised” the annual rate from 5.5% to 5.6%. The increase was partly caused by a 2.7% increase in shelter prices, although rents and home price growth are slowing.    The Producer Price Index or PPI for March was also released, and shows a big drop in wholesale prices. That typically means we'll see retail prices coming down in the coming months. The data shows a .5% monthly decline which brings the yearly rate down from 4.9% to 2.7%. That's the lowest it's been since January of 2021. The core rate shows a slight increase of .1%. That also reduced the annual rate from 4.5% to 3.6%. (2)   Meantime, the Federal Reserve released minutes from the meeting in February which resulted in a quarter-point rate hike. The notes show that Fed officials are very concerned about rate hike stress on the banking system, and are now admitting that we'll likely see at least a “mild” recession later this year. They raised the Federal Funds rate nine times in a row to a range of 4.75% to 5% at the last meeting. They believe that inflation is still much too high and that further rate hikes may be needed, but they will be looking closely at the incoming economic data ahead of their meeting in May. (3)   U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spoke out at the end of the week, saying that banks are being more cautious, and that if they tighten their lending standards further, there may be no need for further rate hikes. She said that would serve as a “substitute for further interest rate hikes that the Fed needs to make.” (4)   Consumers are spending less, which is another sign that the economy is softening. Retail sales have declined four out of the last five months, and were down 1% in March. As reported by MarketWatch: “Retail sales haven't fallen off a cliff, but they also aren't rising rapidly like they did in 2021 and early 2022.” (5)   Jobless applications are slowly rising. There were 239,000 initial claims for the previous week, which is an increase of 11,000. That's not much of a blow to the job market, but it does show that layoffs are slowly rising. Most of the unemployment applications were filed in California where big tech companies are handing out pink slips. Continuing claims are still very low at 1.81 million. (6)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates held steady for the most part. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was down just one basis point to 6.27%. The 15-year was also down one point to 5.54%. (7)   In other news making headlines...   Mortgage Rate “Tipping Point”   The National Association of Realtors is predicting they will fall below 6% by the end of the year. NAR economist Nadia Evangelou says: “If rates drop to 6%, 3.1 million more households will be able to afford to buy the median-priced home compared to the beginning of the year.”   A survey by John Burns Real Estate Consulting shows the “sweet spot” for most homebuyers is lower than 6%. 71% of the participants taking that survey said they won't accept anything higher than 5.5%. (8)   Sharp Drop in Single-Family Permits   There's been a steep drop in the number of building permits pulled for single-family homes. The National Association of Home Buliders says the they are down more than 34% year-over-year with the sharpest decrease in the West followed by the South and the Midwest. They are down about 44%, 33%, and 31% respectively. The Northeast had the smallest drop of 23%. (9)   Multifamily permits are up slightly for the nation with a year-over-year rate of just over 8%. There's been a steep drop in the Northeast for apartments while they have surged to almost 32% in the South.   Texas had the highest number of single-family permits, but those have dropped more than 40% in the last 12 months. Florida and North Carolina have also experienced big declines of just over 31% and 22% respectively.   That's it for today. You'll find more on all these topics by following links in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. You can also learn more about how demand is growing for single-family rentals at our website and where it makes sense to buy them. Hit the “Join for Free” button to become a member with access to all parts of our website. And  please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-prices-rise-more-slowly-cpi-shows-but-inflation-still-stubbornly-high-74611cd9   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wholesale-inflation-posts-biggest-drop-in-3-years-ppi-shows-3fc04750?mod=economy-politics   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-officials-at-march-meeting-were-keenly-worried-about-impact-of-bank-stress-on-economy-26f2d36d?mod=mw_latestnews   4 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/15/yellen-says-us-banks-may-tighten-lending-and-negate-need-for-more-fed-rate-hikes.html   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/retail-sales-tumble-in-march-in-a-sign-of-softening-u-s-economy-b9d35c44?mod=economy-politics   6 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-climb-to-239-000-and-point-to-rising-layoffs-5f07ceb5?mod=economy-politics   ​​7 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   8 - https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/mortgage-rates-move-closer-to-sweet-spot-for-buyers   9 - https://eyeonhousing.org/2023/04/steep-year-over-year-decline-for-single-family-permits-in-february-2023/

In episode 317, Bradley is joined by Matt Saunders, Senior Vice President of Building Products at John Burns Real Estate Consulting.  They discuss the current state of the real estate market and where it's going in the near future.  Matt shares insights as to how the Fed's rate hikes have impacted the housing market and reveals the sectors most affected. This episode is brought to you by The Simple Sales Pipeline® which will organize and value any construction sales rep's roster of customers and prospects in under 30 minutes.   *** If you enjoyed this podcast, we'd sincerely appreciate it if you left a review on Apple Podcasts. The feedback helps improve the show and helps with our visibility as well. The more people listen to the podcast, the more we can invest into it to make it even better.   Since we're asking for things . . . we'd also love it if you recommended this show to your friends and colleagues. Your network looks to people like you to learn where to invest their time and attention. We'd love the opportunity to add value to more people in our community. For more info: constructionleadershippodcast.com Follow us on Instagram: instagram.com/bradleyhartmannandco/ Subscribe to our YouTube Channel: Bradley Hartmann & Co.

The Fed's relentless effort to stomp out inflation is having a huge impact on one of the nation's biggest builders. KB Homes reported a homebuyer cancellation rate of 68% in December. And the “housing market reset” isn't over yet. Although the latest inflation reports show that inflation is subsiding, the cost of a home is still too high for many buyers.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Inflation is Slowly Decreasing   A report on the Consumer Price Index shows a decline of .1% in December with an annual rate of 6.5%. (1) It's the lowest rate of inflation we've seen in more than a year, and a big drop from a peak of 9.1% last summer. Lower oil prices accounted for most of the latest decline.   When you remove prices for fuel and food, the monthly core rate of inflation was .3% with an annual rate of 5.7%. According to MarketWatch, there were few negatives in the CPI report, although the cost of housing is still rising. The report shows the annual cost of shelter at a 40-year high of 7.5%. And those high prices are scaring a lot of potential buyers.   Surge in Contract Cancellation Rates   For KB Home, the Q4 cancellation rate of 68% was almost double what it was in the third quarter. And much more than that compared to a year earlier when it was just 13%.   The last time the cancellation rate was anywhere near that level was at the beginning of the pandemic, but even then it was around 40%. A Fortune article says that, historically, the cancellation rate for builders has only gone as high as 47%. (2)   The data varies from builder to builder and metro to metro. According to John Burns Real Estate Consulting, the Southwest and Texas experienced high cancellation rates of 45% and 39% respectively. Zonda's chief economist Ali Wolf tweeted recently that the cancellation rate in Phoenix hit 70%.   Based on data from John Burns, the nationwide contract cancellation rate was 25.6% in October. That's up from 7.9% in October of last year.    “Conditions Remain Challenging”   KB Home said in a statement: “Current conditions remain challenging. High mortgage rates and persistent inflation, together with an uncertain economy, have made homebuyers more cautious since the middle of last year.” That's putting affordability out of reach for many people. Others may be hoping that home prices will go lower in the months to come.    For many buyers, it's not a choice to cancel. They may have signed a contract and paid their deposit before the home was built, and then with construction delays, and a steady increase in mortgage rates, are finding out they no longer qualify for a loan.  Unfortunately, for some, that means the loss of an earnest money deposit, although a survey of 100 builders by John Burns indicates that most builders will return that deposit.   For buyers who don't get their money back, there's not much they can do about it. Florida attorney Craig Rothburd says: “Everything in these agreements is drafted in favor of the developer.” That includes a warning that they could lose their deposit if they back out.   Housing Market “Reset” Continues   The situation has left home builders with a lot of inventory, and a lot of strategizing to reduce that inventory. Many are helping buyers by offering mortgage rate buydowns instead of price cuts. KB Home says it is very cautious about price cuts because it doesn't want to spook buyers who are already under contract. If they think there's a cheaper option, it could lead to more cancellations.    The Federal Reserve sees the current housing market situation as a “reset” to bring demand in line with supply, along with lower home prices. Higher mortgage rates typically push home prices lower, which has started to happen, but home prices are still too high for many homebuyers. And lower-priced homes are in short supply.   A return to lower mortgage rates could help but with the current fight against inflation, they are expected to remain in the 6% range for this year. The increase has added about a $1,000 to a typical monthly mortgage payment. According to The National Association of Homebuilders, the monthly payment on a $450,000 new home rose from $1,925 at the beginning of 2022 to $2,923 for the same home by the end of the year. (4)    New Home Affordability Weakens   That has substantially reduced the number of households that can afford to buy a median-priced new home. NAHB drew a comparison. It says that a mortgage rate of 3.22% is affordable for 34% of U.S. households. When that rate goes up to 6.42%, which is about where it is now, just 22.3% of households can afford that home. And, when the mortgage rate goes above 7% like it did in October, only 20.3% of households earn enough to qualify for a loan. At that level, you'd need an income of almost $150,000.    Always keep in mind that reports like these are averaging the results for the nation as a whole. Sub-markets will vary, and many of them are still affordable. If you want to learn more about some of those more affordable markets, please visit newsforinvestors.com. You'll find data on some of the strongest rental and growth markets across the nation. You'll also have access to experienced brokers and property managers in those markets. It's free to join and free to access all that information.   Thanks for listening!   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inflation-softens-at-the-end-of-2022-and-clears-path-for-slower-fed-rate-hikes-11673530439?mod=newsviewer_click   2 - https://fortune.com/2023/01/12/fed-housing-market-reset-homebuilder-cancellation-rate-spike-kb-home/   3 - https://www.businessinsider.com/homebuyer-lose-cash-and-homes-as-mortgage-rates-soar-2022-12   4 - https://eyeonhousing.org/2023/01/how-many-households-are-priced-out-by-higher-mortgage-rates-in-2022/

Today we have the pleasure of bringing you a crossover episode from our recently acquired Altos Research's Top of Mind Podcast. On the show, Mike Simonsen, Altos President, interviews experts from across the real estate ecosystem on housing data trends and other happenings in the industry. For this episode, Mike interviews Rick Palacios, the Director of Research and a Managing Principal at John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Rick was an incredible Housing News guest this past spring, so we are really excited to bring you this episode from the Top of Mind podcast. Mike and Rick talk about trends from the latest builder survey by John Burns, what surprised Rick in 2022, home price projections for 2023, what headlines are getting wrong, and much more!Enjoy the episode!The Housing News podcast explores the most important topics happening in mortgage, real estate, and fintech. Each week a new mortgage or real estate executive joins the show to add perspective to the top stories crossing HousingWire's news desk. Hosted by Clayton Collins and produced by the HW Media team. 

Eric Finnigan of John Burns Real Estate Consulting is a thought leader in the remodeling space. Let Eric walk you through the basics, the nuances, the future, the economics, and even the demographics, of the remodeling world.

In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Rick Palacios Jr., Director of Research and a Managing Principal at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, to talk about what to expect in the real estate market in 2023. Rick discusses the company's latest research on homebuilder sentiment, shares their latest forecast for home prices and the economy, and talks about some secret signals to watch for changes in the market. About Rick Palacios Jr. Rick Palacios Jr. is the Director of Research and a Managing Principal at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, where he oversees all research pertaining to the US economy, for-sale housing, and rental markets. Rick has 15 years of experience in residential real estate and economic research, originally joining John Burns Real Estate Consulting in 2006 and then rejoining the company in 2014 after working as a home builder Equity Research Associate at Morgan Stanley in New York. He has also worked as an Analyst at the Milken Institute, an economic think tank. Rick holds a BA from the University of California, Irvine, and an MS in real estate economics and finance from the London School of Economics. Here's a glimpse of what you'll learn:  Why new home construction might accelerate the housing market slump How much home prices are likely to decline in the next two years The leading indicators (and secret signals!) to watch for changes in the market What's happening with the second home market now The surprising impact of ARMs in this cycle Featuring Mike Simonsen, CEO of Altos Research A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets. Resources mentioned in this episode: Rick Palacios Jr. on LinkedIn Rick Palacios Jr. on Twitter John Burns Real Estate Consulting John Burns Real Estate Consulting on Twitter Odd Lots Podcast Mike Simonsen on LinkedIn Altos Research Follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights: https://twitter.com/altosresearch https://twitter.com/mikesimonsen See you next week!

In episode 294, Bradley introduces an all star panel at the West Coast Lumber and Building Materials Association (WCLBMA) Annual Convention that was held October 19-21 in San Diego, CA. The panel included Moderator, Matt Saunders of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, George Emmerson of Sierra Pacific Industries, Steve Patterson of Central Valley. Steve Swanson of The Swanson Group, and Victor Fresca of Dixieline Lumber. This episode is brought to you by Capital One Trade Credit *** If you enjoyed this podcast, we'd sincerely appreciate it if you left a review on Apple Podcasts. The feedback helps improve the show and helps with our visibility as well. The more people listen to the podcast, the more we can invest into it to make it even better.   Since we're asking for things . . . we'd also love it if you recommended this show to your friends and colleagues. Your network looks to people like you to learn where to invest their time and attention. We'd love the opportunity to add value to more people in our community. For more info: constructionleadershippodcast.com Follow us on Instagram: instagram.com/bradleyhartmannandco/ Subscribe to our YouTube Channel: Bradley Hartmann & Co. Capital One Trade Credit: capitalone.com/trade-credit

The immigration deficit. The coveted Latino voter. The reddening of Florida. These and other jump balls for guests Chris Porter, chief demographer with John Burns Real Estate Consulting; and Miami-based public opinion research strategist Fernand Amandi.

We've been seeing signs of a housing market pullback, but it's now official that home price growth is slamming on the brakes. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price data is considered the gold standard for home prices, and the July numbers are now showing the first month-over-month decline since 2012.Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. National Home Price IndexThe report, released on September 27th, shows that national home prices were down .2%, for an annual rate of 15.8%. In June, the annual rate was 18.1%. CoreLogic says the difference between those two months is the steepest decline in the history of the index. (1)Managing Director at the S&P Dow Jones Indices, Craig Lazarra, says the slide in pricing “reflects a forceful deceleration.” He says: “As the Federal Reserve continues to move interest rates upward, mortgage financing has become more expensive, a process that continues to this day. Given the prospects for a more challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to decelerate.” (2)20-City Home Price IndexThe 20-City Home Price Index shows a bigger slowdown in price growth. The month-over-month reading was down .4% for an annual rate of 16.1% in July. It was 18.7% in June.Annual price growth is still quite high in some metros. Tampa is at the top of that list with the largest year-over-year gains of 31.8% in July. Miami was second with 31.7%. Dallas follows with 24.7%.Home Prices Decline as Mortgage Rates RiseHome prices have been declining as mortgage rates rise. Home loans are currently around the 7% level, after a long period of very low rates. That's happening in conjunction with the Federal Reserve's effort to bring inflation back down to 2%. Although the Fed's actions are not directly connected to mortgage rates, they do influence them.Many homebuyers can't afford to pay the high cost of a mortgage along with a high-priced home, so that's taking some of the sizzle out of home sales, and home price growth. A lack of inventory is still putting pressure on home prices however, but the momentum of that upward trajectory is slowing down.Other Home Price ReportsA separate report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency also shows a similar drop in home prices. It says that prices were down .6% in July compared to June, and that June only produced a .1% gain in home prices. Year-over-year, the FHFA index was up 13.9%.John Burns Real Estate Consulting also tracks home prices in 148 markets. According to that data, 98 of those markets have seen a drop in home values from a peak earlier this year. Eleven of the markets show a decline of more than 5%. (3)Zillow also reports that home values have fallen in 89 of the 150 largest U.S. markets. And in ten of those markets, values have fallen more than 5%.Metros seeing the biggest price declines are the high-cost tech hubs and frothy work-from-home destinations. Among the high-cost tech hubs with the biggest price declines are San Jose, San Francisco, and Seattle. The work-from-home metros with the biggest price declines include Austin, Boise, and Phoenix.Real estate analysts say the new data is showing them that the expected home price correction is more pronounced and more widespread than they previously expected.If you want to keep up with real estate news, please subscribe to this podcast. You can also find out more about how to succeed as a real estate investor at our website (newsforinvestors.com). Just hit the “Join for Free” button at the top of the page, for access to our Learning Center and our Investor Portal.And please remember to leave a review!Thank you! And thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.Links:1 - https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/reports/us-corelogic-sp-case-shiller-index-takes-another-step-back-in-july-up-15-8-versus-18-1-in-june/2 - https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/27/homes/case-shiller-july-20223 - https://fortune.com/2022/09/28/housing-market-home-price-correction-2022/

The world of real estate and remodeling is a complex one. As the economy fluctuates, supply chains struggle, and outcomes are uncertain, how can we understand the market?    John Burns Real Estate Consulting and Qualified Remodeler strive to clear things up with their US Remodeler Index. Created by polling a massive group of contractors, the Index gives an unprecedented look under the hood of the industry. This quarter only, the Index is being offered for free at https://tinyurl.com/remodeler-survey (tinyurl.com/remodeler-survey).    Eric Finnigan, VP of Research and Demographics for John Burns, manages several industry reports including the Index. In this interview, he sheds some light on the remodeling industry's prospects, give advice for differentiating your contracting business, and shares his unique perspective.   Follow Eric on Twitter, https://twitter.com/EricFinnigan?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor (@EricFinnigan), https://www.linkedin.com/in/ericfinnigan1/ (connect with him on LinkedIn), or shoot him an email at efinnigan@realestateconsulting.com. This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacy

On this episode of the Growing with Purpose podcast, host Paul Spiegelman speaks with Devyn Bachman, Vice President of Research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting.  Devyn grew up surrounded by the entrepreneurial spirit. While her parents ran a 20-seat hair salon in Colorado, Devyn grew to love the idea of creating something on your own, but also to respect the relentless hard work that it takes to make a business a success.    Devyn was the first in her family to attend college, and, for the majority of her academic career, was also a dancer on the Denver Nuggets dance team. This terrific opportunity allowed to travel the world, all while pursuing her passion for dance.   And she didn't stop traveling after that. When Devyn's now-husband proposed to her during their senior year of college, he was also just about to begin his career in the NHL. This meant moving houses, cities, and even states, at an alarming rate for over a decade.   “You wouldn't believe the people I have met along the way. It's absolutely been a thrilling adventure at every turn.”   Now, Devyn has been a part of the JBREC team for seven years, and she credits the company's founder, John Burns, with his innovative approach to remote work - or rather, what they call connected work - in part for her ability to remain at one company and develop her leadership skills over those years.    Tune in for this episode as Devyn and Paul discuss her experience on student council in high school, the ups and downs of constantly being on the move, and the merits of working at a company that values leadership in a variety of ways. 

In this week's episode of the Multi-Family Method our host Mike Mosher, CEO of Capstone Companies, interviews John Burns. John is the CEO of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, a company founded to help business executives make informed housing industry investment decisions. John co-authored Big Shifts Ahead: Demographic Clarity for Businesses, a book written to help make demographic trends easier to understand. John has an avid LinkedIn following and a company newsletter frequently cited by the media. Before founding his company, John worked for KPMG in their real estate consulting practice. John joins us to discuss the current state of the multi-family market and his forecast for the future of multi-family investing and development. We hope you enjoy this insightful episode geared towards the state of the multi-family market. Resources John Burns Real Estate Consulting: John Burns Real Estate Consulting | Trusted Analysis for Executive Decisions Jay Parsons Social Media Handles LinkedIn: John Burns | LinkedIn Twitter: (1) John Burns (@johnburnsjbrec) / Twitter Capstone Companies: Capstone Companies | Multi-Housing Investment Properties | Real Estate (capstone-companies.com) Capstone Social Media Handles  Mike Mosher on LinkedIn: (2) Michael Mosher | LinkedIn Capstone Companies: (2) Capstone Companies: My Company | LinkedIn

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending August 20th, 2022... a big plunge in home sales, rent increase impact on tenants, and Airbnb's new anti-party technology.Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/real-estate-news-real-estate-investing-podcast/id1079952715Economic NewsWe begin with economic news from this past week, and a big drop in residential construction activity. The Commerce Department says that housing starts were down 9.6% year-over-year in July to their lowest level since early last year. Building permits also fell in July. They were down 1.3% compared to June. (1) HousingWire Data Analyst, Logan Mohtashami, says that homebuilders are pulling back until mortgage rates fall and home-buying activity picks up again. (2)One reason that home builders are pulling back is the cancellation rate among buyers. A survey by John Burns Real Estate Consulting shows that the cancellation rate has more than doubled since April to 17.6% in July. The firm's data also shows a 16% cancellation rate for existing home sales or about 63,000 deals that fell through. (3) Some of the highest cancellation rates are in Florida along with Las Vegas and San Antonio.Why the high cancellation rate? As CNBC reports, there are two main reasons. One is that some buyers no longer qualify for a loan with a higher interest rate. The second is that homebuyers are worried about inflation and the possibility that home values might drop so they are simply walking away from their deals. The situation has rattled home builder confidence. The National Association of Homebuilders monthly confidence index dropped below 50 in August, which is the midpoint between negative and positive sentiment. The last time it fell below 50 was at the beginning of the pandemic. One year ago, it was 75. (4) Homebuilders are describing the situation as a “housing recession.” Existing home sales were also down again, for a sixth straight month. The National Association of Realtors says that sales fell 5.9% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.81 million. If you exclude the pandemic, that's the weakest sales activity since November 2015. Although inventory was up 4.8%, there's still just a 3.3 month supply of homes, and with an average 14 days on the market. (5)The job market remains stable. Initial jobless claims were down a few thousand to a total of 250,000. Economists say the economy has slowed down because of rising interest rates, but there's no surge in lay-offs because the economy is still growing, and companies want to hold on to their employees.. (6) Mortgage RatesMortgage rates dipped a little. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down nine basis points to 5.13% The 15-year was down 4 points to 4.55%. (7)In other news making headlines...Building Material Prices Move HigherThe cost of building materials moved higher in July led by a surge in concrete prices. The National Association of Home Builders says that building materials were up .4%, while concrete prices shot up 2.5%. (8)The NAHB says that ready-mix concrete prices have gone up in 17 of the last 18 months and now costs about 35% more than it did before the pandemic. That's similar to the total price increase for all building materials combined during the same time period.Rent Increase Impact on TenantsInflation is making it difficult for tenants to keep up with their rent payments. Freddie Mac conducted a survey that shows almost all of them have been impacted by higher prices, and that 60% of them have experienced a rent increase in the past year. 40% of those tenants say they are somewhat likely to miss a rent payment while 20% say they are extremely likely to miss a payment. (9)The survey also asked about the size of the rent increases. About a quarter of the survey participants said that rent went up 10% or less. 15% said it went up 10% or more. 11% said rents were more than 20% higher. 6% said the increase was more than 30%.Airbnb's New U.S. Anti-Party TechnologyAirbnb has launched new anti-party tools in the U.S. and Canada. The tools will help identify users who appear to be organizing a party. The technology will look for red flags including any negative reviews on Airbnb, whether the user is local, the length of the reservation, and whether it's a weekend or a weekday. (10)Airbnb has been testing these tools in Australia since October of last year, and has found that they are very effective. The company says there was a 35% drop in unauthorized parties while the pilot program was in effect. The company says this new system is more robust than the “under-25 system” that is currently in place in the U.S. That program is mostly focused on people under the age of 25 without any positive reviews and are booking an Airbnb locally, indicating a possible desire to hold a party with their friends. That's it for today. If you'd like to read more about any of these topics, check the show notes (below) for links at newsforinvestors.com. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!If you haven't yet joined RealWealth, please sign up. It's free and will give you access to our members-only Investor Portal where you'll find data on specific markets, the property teams that we work with, and other resources. Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.Links:1 -https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf2 -https://www.housingwire.com/articles/homebuilders-are-done-until-mortgage-rates-fall/3 -https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/16/homebuyers-are-backing-out-of-more-deals-as-recession-fears-linger.html4 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-builders-see-housing-recession-as-builder-sentiment-index-drops-further-in-august-11660572142?mod=economic-report5 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/july-existing-home-sales-fall-for-the-sixth-straight-month-realtors-see-housing-recession-11660831837?mod=economic-report6 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-fall-to-250-000-and-signal-labor-market-is-still-strong-11660826638?mod=economic-report7 -https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms8 -https://eyeonhousing.org/2022/08/building-materials-prices-increase-in-june-as-concrete-surges/9 -https://www.multihousingnews.com/60-of-residents-saw-rent-increases-freddie-mac/10 -https://news.airbnb.com/airbnb-introduces-new-anti-party-technology-in-us-and-canada/

For this episode of The New Home Insights podcast we talked to not one but two experts. Greg Brooks with the Executive Council on Construction Supply and our own Chris Beard at John Burns Real Estate Consulting both closely monitor the building products space. Greg and Chris joined us to share their insights on housing supply chain disruptions, what's happening right now, and what might the future hold.

Mark, Ryan, and Cris kick off this episode by discussing inflation and the latest CPI Report. For the second part, they welcome John Burns, CEO of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, to give a detailed U.S. housing market outlook, that includes the topics of mortgage rates, the potential threat of a housing crash, and the affordable housing shortage.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ and Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon for additional insight.

Welcome back to the She's Wild the Podcast. Today's guest is Lesley Deutch. Lesley is a Managing Principal based in Florida for John Burns Real Estate Consulting. She has more than 25 years of experience consulting with executives in the finance and real estate industries throughout North America. She works on a wide spectrum of development projects, including apartments, for-sale housing, high-rise, urban projects, single-family rental, and commercial developments.Throughout her career, Lesley has always been drawn to data. As a result, she's made a name for herself as a trusted consultant to major land developers and for leading all custom consulting projects in the Southeast. In today's episode of She's Wild, Lesley and I discuss her career journey and how her team collects data to provide valuable insights to their clients. We also talk about the unique ways in which they use data to help their clients make better decisions. Throughout the conversation, it's clear that Lesley is passionate about her work and truly believes in the power of data. As a result, she is an inspiration to all women who are looking to make a difference in their careers.Thank you, Lesley, for sharing your story with us!Memorable Moments:6:30- My favorite type of project would be to take a large piece of land and say, what should go here? What's the path of growth? Where do we see the world in 10 years? And what kind of real estate do we need?10:30- We have a whole building products division that's still forecasting double-digit increases in construction costs over the next year, and that's going to be very difficult for builders to push that through. So I think that's a very big concern. We're watching it closely.12:34- My job right now is probably the hardest it's ever been to really understand what the market is because it's all over the place.17:58- I think being able to learn from other people, whether they're just out of college, or the most experienced people, 30 years in the business, everybody has something to teach you.22:07- Every young person wants to get to be a developer, and that's really exciting, right? That's a really great job. And it's, you know, super high end, but I think learning how to do a deal, learning how to research a deal, and all the pros and cons behind it really helps you understand.23:05- Really the key to staying employed, to getting a job, is showing someone what you can do for them, and what your worth is.Connect with Nancy:Instagram: https://instagram.com/nancysurakLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nancysurak/Website: www.nancysurak.comConnect with LesleyLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lesleydeutch/John Burns Real Estate Consulting LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/john-burns-real-estate-consulting/John Burns Real Estate Consulting Website: https://www.realestateconsulting.com/Lesley's Podcast Recommendation:The Big Man Can't Shoothttps://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-big-man-cant-shoot/id1119389968?i=1000371650194Sound production by:Luke Surak, Surak Productions: surakproductions@gmail.com

In this episode, we unpack current market conditions with a leading housing and real estate expert John Burns, CEO of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.  ⁠Questions we address: ⁠ How's housing and construction doing across the board?⁠ Which types of projects are being most effected? ⁠ What impact are we seeing on consumer trends and products?⁠ And a lot more. Tune in to hear what the leading builders and experts have to say about the market and what's changing. Liking the podcast?Subscribe & write an awesome review. We wouldn't be here without your support!Follow us on Social & Give us a Shout!  Our Podcast on Instagram @bredtobuildpodcast Hammr's Instagram @wearehammr   Podcast Powered by Hammr - The app build for the trades. Download on iPhone or Android

For this week's episode, Clayton is joined in the studio with industry veteran John Burns, the CEO of John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Before founding John Burns Real Estate Consulting back in 2001, John worked for several years at a national consulting firm and several more at KPMG. During the episode, two dive into how his consulting business got started, the types of clients being served, and some of the research and consulting work that's driving change in the housing ecosystem. They also go into some of the economic insights that John and his team are advising people on to prepare their businesses to excel through the upcoming cycle.Enjoy the episode!Join us for HousingWire Annual October 3rd - 5th, 2022 in beautiful Scottsdale, Arizona. Register here!The Housing News podcast explores the most important topics happening in mortgage, real estate, and fintech. Each week a new mortgage or real estate executive joins the show to add perspective to the top stories crossing HousingWire's news desk. Hosted by Clayton Collins and produced by Elissa Branch and Dalton Johnson.

Home buyers are getting cold feet because of high home prices and mortgage rates. A new report from Redfin shows the number of buyers canceling deals is now the highest it's been since the beginning of the pandemic. The pullback is also impacting builders. A report by John Burns Real Estate Consulting says they are lowering prices as they try to offload inventory. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.The Redfin report shows that homebuyers canceled 15% of the deals that went under contract in June. That's about 60,000 deals and the highest percentage of cancellations since the early days of the pandemic. About a month ago, in May, 12.7% of the deals were canceled. And about a year ago, that figure was 11.2%. (1)More Homebuyers Canceling DealsAnalysts say buyers may have different motives for canceling their purchases including the possibility that home prices might go lower in the coming months, and they might get a better deal if they wait. For those who don't want to wait, there's less competition and that's giving them more negotiating power. Redfin's deputy chief economist, Taylor Marr, says there are fewer buyers willing to waive inspections and appraisals, for example. By doing that, they have more time to weigh the pros and cons of a deal and get out if something turns up during the inspection, or the home doesn't appraise.The Redfin report also says that some homebuyers simply don't qualify with the higher mortgage payments. Marr says: “If rates were 5% when you made the offer, but hit 5.8% by the time the deal was set to close, you may no longer be able to afford that home or you may no longer qualify for the loan.”Redfin says that Las Vegas has the highest percentage of cancellations in June at 27.2%. Several Florida cities that have seen strong home price growth are high on the list along with New Orleans, Phoenix, and Houston. It's a long list that ranges from the Las Vegas high to a low of about 2.6% in Newark, New Jersey. Metros that had at least 1,000 pending home sales in June were included in this analysis.Home Builders Lowering PricesHome builders are also seeing higher cancellation rates. A report from John Burns Real Estate Consulting says 9.3% of new home deals were canceled in May. That's almost three percent higher than May of last year. (2)John Burns' senior vice president, Jody Kahn, says: “Buyer's remorse and cancellations shortly after contract are increasing. Builders say that buyers are nervous about a potential recession, struggling to get comfortable with higher payments, or expecting home prices to decline.”The cancellation rate for homebuilders varied from region to region within each state. The John Burns research shows the highest cancellation rate at 27% in parts of Texas, and the lowest in some parts of the Southeast at 8%. That research shows that a quarter of the home builders are lowering their prices. A builder in Austin, Texas, told Realtor.com: “Sales have fallen off a cliff. We're selling ⅓ of what we sold in March and April.”Housing Inventory Turn-AroundOne positive impact of this high-price environment is an increase in inventory. A TV station in Texas reports that: “Major housing markets in Texas are finally seeing the beginning of a housing inventory rebound.” (3) As you may know, six months of inventory is considered normal for a balanced housing market. We're not seeing that yet, but this report says the numbers are rising in Houston, San Antonio, Dallas Fort Worth, and Austin.Many homebuyers are getting priced out of the market, but the need for housing will not go away. That creates an opportunity for investors, despite the high prices. A recent guest our other podcast, The Real Wealth Show, isn't discouraged by the high prices. His strategy: “You don't wait to buy real estate. You buy real estate and wait.” In other words, cash flow will come to those who wait for properties and rents to appreciate. The episode is called: “Invest Now or Wait?” with Jimmy Vreeland. You'll find it under the “Learn” tab and “The Real Wealth Show.”And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.Links:1 -https://www.redfin.com/news/home-purchases-fall-through-2022/2 -https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/scary-times-builders-are-slashing-home-prices-and-slowing-construction-as-buyers-pull-back-survey-shows/3 -https://www.wfaa.com/article/money/business/right-on-the-money/major-housing-markets-finally-seeing-the-beginning-of-a-housing-inventory-rebound/287-346525d9-e3f1-4806-a2a9-121940badc45

Home builders are feeling jittery! That's according to a June survey of home builder sentiment by John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Demand for new homes is cooling as buyers cancel orders, and builders are slashing prices to offload homes, the survey found. “Scary times,” a home builder in Nashville, Tenn. told the company. “Hoard cash and hang on for the ride!” Sales of new homes fell 31% this June as compared to last year. Cancellation rates jumped in June to 14.5% nationally, up from 6.5% a year ago.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's a lot of uncertainty in the economy right now as inflation pushes higher. The housing market is contributing to inflation with higher home prices, and now we're seeing higher mortgage rates. As potential homebuyers get priced out of the market, real estate investors see the need for housing as a big opportunity for single-family rentals.Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.Institutional investors have been very busy this year expanding their portfolios of single-family rental homes. As reported by HousingWire, they've sponsored at least 10 SFR securitization deals worth almost $8 billion. (1) ATTOM Data Solutions' Rick Sharga says: The historically low inventory of homes to buy coupled with (rental) vacancy rates hovering around 2.5%, have positioned SFR owners for success in today's housing market.”Strength of the Single-Family Rental MarketThe institutional deals highlight the strength of the single-family rental market, but it's the “mom and pop” investors who are the biggest beneficiaries because the single-family rental market is dominated by small investors. According to rentalhomecouncil.org, 99% of single-family rentals are owned by smaller investors and 90 percent of them own fewer than ten units. (2)But the Wall Street landlords are showing a lot of interest, and their share is growing. This trend is gaining momentum as potential homebuyers lose the battle against inflation, and the Fed tightens the belt on the money supply.The Fed's recent decision to increase short-term lending rates by a whopping 75 basis points is the Fed's latest attempt to slow a hot economy. It's the biggest rate hike we've seen since 1994 and will raise borrowing costs for adjustable rate mortgages and other short-term loans.Rising Mortgage RatesIt's not directly tied to the popular fixed-rate mortgage, but will impact mortgages through a complex set of economic relationships. That includes nervousness among investors, bond yields and the 10-year Treasury. After more than a decade of low mortgage rates, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage topped 6% last week. According to ATTOM, mortgage originations were down 18% from the Q4 of last year to Q1 of this year. Year-over-year, they were down 32%. The biggest reason for the mortgage downturn is a decrease in refinancing. ATTOM says just 1.45 million home loans were rolled into new mortgages during the first quarter. That's 22% lower than the end of last year and 46% lower than a year ago.According to Sharga: “The drop-ff in Q1 refinancing activity is no surprise with mortgage rates rising as rapidly as they have.”Renting Cheaper than BuyingHome prices are also keeping homebuyers at bay. According to John Burns Real Estate Consulting, it's now more costly to own a home than it is to rent one since the year 2000. The consulting group says it costs about $839 per month more to buy than to rent. (3)John Burns senior research manager, Danielle Nguyen, says: “With demand now shifting toward renting, home builders who were once reluctant to sell to rental home investors are now soliciting offers from investors.” She says: “Strong demand from investors will provide additional support to today's home prices.”SFR Opportunities for InvestorsAs dire as it may sound to hear about higher mortgage rates and expensive homes, demand for single-family rentals remains strong, and that's attracting more institutional investors. MetLife Investment Management told HousingWire that: “MIM believes that institutional SFR ownership is likely to grow significantly over the next decade.” It expects that share to grow from 2% where it is today to around 10% in the future. Much of that growth will come from the new build-to-rent trend that's taking shape.It isn't just the big landlords who are doing the build-to-rent thing. Although it's great that institutional investors might prefer to leave the existing home inventory to small investors and homebuyers, there are opportunities for small investors to own newly-built rentals. If you're a member of RealWealth, then you probably know that we work with with property teams who can provide that kind of rental unit to our members. If you'd like to know more about that, please go to newsforinvestors.com and sign up. It's free, and will give you access to our resources, including investment counselors and property teams. While you are there, you can also check for links on this topic in the show notes for this episode.Also, please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.Links:1 -https://www.housingwire.com/articles/as-rates-skyrocket-wall-street-single-family-rental-investors-see-opportunity/?utm_campaign=Newsletter%20-%20HousingWire%20Daily&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=216674568&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9kKz4UtawEjJ2FBXak6h5mP0nz8HU01QcfNmJN26CMLgu3kR8V-0LQbz_pxwqztwv6NKfgARrR6Fz2zghXhhq6CKy2Gg&utm_content=216674568&utm_source=hs_email2 -https://www.rentalhomecouncil.org/3 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-now-more-expensive-to-own-a-home-than-to-rent-one-than-at-any-time-since-2000-heres-what-that-means-for-house-prices-11655213808

Today is a very special edition of the Housing News podcast as we gathered people from all across the HW Media team to bring you a mid-year update on different sectors in the housing industry.Clayton first sits down with HousingWire Managing Editor James Kleimann to talk about inventory and loan originator sentiment. Then, HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami joins to talk mortgage rates and application trends. Reporter Connie Kim brings a look at consumer sentiment and RealTrends Editorial Director Tracey Velt follows with real estate broker and agent sentiment from RealTrends' BrokerPulse survey. Finally, we wrap with HousingWire Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler as she talks builder sentiment courtesy of data from John Burns Real Estate Consulting and the National Association of Home Builders.  Hope you enjoy the episode!

The residential real estate market has been speeding uphill since mid 2019, with a speed bump in the Spring of 2020. As we near the peak, anticipation of what is on the other side anxiously awaits. When will we pass the peak? How steep is the grade going downhill? Are there guardrails? On this week's podcast episode, John Burns, Founder and CEO of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, gives us his take on today's housing market and what our team believes is the most likely scenario going forward. Note: Recorded on May 31, 2022

Jenni Nichols is a Director at DesignLens ( part of the New Home Trends Institute) and ProBuilder's Forty Under 40 Class of 2022.Backed by the deep-dive research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting and supported by the experts across the nation, the New Home Trends Institute pairs design inspiration with exclusive insights into the “why” behind consumers' housing choices.We're discussing consumer trends on today's episode of Anewgo of New Home Sales. For full show notes please visit https://anewgosell.com/show24

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending May 14th, 2022… why lumber prices are falling, what the FHA is doing to discourage investors, and the new Google mapping tool that could help house hunters.Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.Economic NewsWe begin with economic news from this past week. Inflation appeared to slow down a bit last month. The government reported a slight decline in the Consumer Price Index from an annual rate of 8.5% in March to 8.3% in April. But that's coming off a 40-year high, so we haven't come down much. Plus, the so-called “core rate of inflation” - which omits prices for food and gas - was .6% higher. That was a disappointment on Wall Street because analysts had forecast a lower .4% increase. (1)As reported by MarketWatch, many economists expect inflation to slow down, but they say it will probably take a while for that to happen. Supply chain issues and the labor shortage are two big reasons that prices keep rising.The decline was also not enough to put consumer minds at ease. The University of Michigan says its consumer sentiment index fell to a ten-year low as of this month. It went from a reading of 65.2 in April to 59.1. A survey shows that most Americans expect overall inflation to remain at the 5.4% level for the next year and at 3% for the next five years. (2)Mortgage RatesMortgage rates also crept a little higher last week. Freddie Mac says the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 3 basis points to an average of 5.3%. The 15-year was down 4 points to 4.48%. (3) The mortgage company says that many homebuyers are continuing with their plans but are paying about one third more per month than they would have a year ago.In other news making headlines…Builders Getting a Break on Lumber PricesLumber prices are headed lower. They fell below $800 per thousand board feet last week. That's about 30% lower than they were at the beginning of the year, but they are still much higher than they have been historically. The National Home Builders Association says they've been so high that homes were $18,000 more expensive than they were in previous years, just because of high lumber prices. (4)A recent survey by John Burns Real Estate Consulting shows that prices may be coming down a little because of softening demand for entry-level homes. And, the COO of Sherwood Lumber, Kyle Little, told Insider: “We expect prices in the long term to be challenged with the affordability and rising interest rate headwinds.”Landlords Lose in Appeal to CA Supreme CourtThe California Supreme Court rejected a request by landlords to review a lower court ruling that impacts the Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act. If you haven't heard of Costa-Hawkins, it's legislation enacted in 1995 that prevents California cities from imposing rent control on single-family homes, condominiums, and residential properties built after 1995. (5)There was concern that San Francisco landlords were circumventing eviction laws by raising rents so high that tenants would move out. The city called them “bad faith” rent increases that were used to evict tenants. The city then passed an ordinance in 2019 to prevent that from happening. It included a way to compare rent increases to market rates, and to check if there had been a recent eviction attempt. Landlords sued, but lost their case in lower courts. In 2020, a Superior Court judge said: “Costa-Hawkins does not protect a landlord's right to use a pretextual rent increase to avoid lawfully imposed local eviction restrictions.” The high court's decision last week, allows the lower court ruling to stand.FHA Gives Owner-Occupants First Dibs on ForeclosuresThe Federal Housing Administration will make investors wait their turn, for a look at foreclosed properties. The FHA announced that owner occupant buyers, government entities, and HUD-approved nonprofits will get first dibs during a 30-day exclusive time period. It will also provide time for buyers to get a loan if they need one. (6)The FHA says it's doing this to support a goal to reduce the number of homes that investors are buying and turning into rentals, and to help people who want to become homeowners. Buyers must provide a signed statement saying they intend to live in the home. They also have 15 days to back out of a deal if they get “buyer's remorse.”Google Street View Get “Immersive”Google is adding a new feature to its mapping software that will help house hunters. It combines satellite and street view images so that users can fly over an area and then drop down to street level to take a closer look. Some people say the aerial view looks like you're flying over a property with a drone. Google calls it an “immersive view.” (7) It's being introduced in New York and Los Angeles. Google plans to expand soon to new areas.That's it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!You can also join RealWealth for free at newsforinvestors.com. As a member, you have access to the Investor Portal where you can view sample property pro-formas and connect with our network of resources, including experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more.Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.Links:1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-inflation-rate-slows-to-8-3-cpi-finds-after-hitting-40-year-high-11652272713?mod=home-page2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-sentiment-hits-ten-year-low-amid-high-prices-umich-survey-finds-11652451173?mod=economic-report3 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms4 - https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/2022/05/11/lumber-prices-tumble-to-lowest-level-of-20225 - https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/State-Supreme-Court-rejects-a-challenge-by-17166499.php6 - https://caanet.org/calif-supreme-court-snubs-appeal-of-costa-hawkins-case/?mkt_tok=NTU5LVRFTi05NDgAAAGEXbZRUIFaYfDr8n_JnaducPEN7VatF5PpAR34RTKWv7UiK3Y8lW_ce1Ko7WQ8Ot94wKy1cFzjQ3HgtJy6wLdJXjpjwPON50XI1dFc5Q7 - https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/2022/05/11/fha-gives-buyers-exclusive-sneak-peek-at-foreclosures8 - https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/2022/05/11/fha-gives-buyers-exclusive-sneak-peek-at-foreclosures9 - https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/2022/05/12/new-google-map-feature-offers-immersive-view-of-streets

In this week's episode, HW Media CEO Clayton Collins is joined by the Director of Research, Managing Principal at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, Rick Palacios to discuss the findings of their most recent Home Builder Survey.The pair walk through some of the economic headwinds that prospective buyers are facing amid the lack of inventory, rising rates, and inflation. They also dive into how the market is faring on the construction side, with high material costs still impacting building prices.

John Burns co-authored Big Shifts Ahead: Demographic Clarity for Businesses, a book written to help make demographic trends easier to understand, quantify, and anticipate. Before founding John Burns Real Estate Consulting in 2001, John worked for 10 years at KPMG Peat Marwick—2 as a CPA and 8 in their Real Estate Consulting practice. John Burns founded the company to help business executives make informed housing industry investment decisions. The company's research subscribers receive the most accurate analysis possible to inform their macro investment decisions, the company's consulting clients receive specific property and portfolio investment advice designed to maximize profits. Gary Beasley is CEO and Co-Founder of Roofstock, the leading online marketplace for buying, selling and owning single-family rental investment homes. Recognized as a leader in the future of real estate, Roofstock was featured on Forbes' 2019 Fintech 50 list. Gary has spent most of his career building businesses in the real estate, hospitality and tech sectors. After earning his BA in economics from Northwestern, Gary ventured west to earn his MBA from Stanford, where he caught the entrepreneurial bug and still serves as a regular guest lecturer. Immediately before starting Roofstock, Gary led one of the largest single-family rental platforms in the U.S. through its IPO as co-CEO of Starwood Waypoint Residential Trust, now part of Colony Starwood Homes. In this episode, we discuss the current state of the real estate market and the economy more broadly. Gary and John share their thoughts on what has been happening year over year in the housing market; what 40-year highs of inflation, rising interest rates, and geopolitical unrest mean for real estate investors; and highlight some of the risks that investors are faced with today.    Episode Links: https://www.realestateconsulting.com/ https://www.linkedin.com/company/john-burns-real-estate-consulting/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/gary-beasley-956647/ https://www.roofstock.com/ --- Transcript Before we jump into the episode, here's a quick disclaimer about our content. The Remote Real Estate Investor podcast is for informational purposes only, and is not intended as investment advice. The views, opinions and strategies of both the hosts and the guests are their own and should not be considered as guidance from Roofstock. Make sure to always run your own numbers, make your own independent decisions and seek investment advice from licensed professionals.   Michael: Hey, everyone, welcome to another episode of the Remote Real Estate Investor. I'm Michael Albaum and today with me I have two very heavy hitters in the real estate space. John Burns, CEO of John Burn's real estate consulting, and Gary Beasley, co-founder and CEO of Roofstock. So without further ado, let's jump into hearing their thoughts and opinions around what's been going on in today's real estate market.   John Burns and Gary Beasley so happy and excited to have you both back on the podcast. Thank you for taking the time to hang out with me today.   John: You bet.   Gary: Hey, Michael, great to see you.   Michael: So I of course, know a little bit about both of your backgrounds and who you are. But for those of our listeners that might not be familiar with who you both are, if you could give us a quick two minute, two second intro of who you are, where you come from, and what it is you're doing in real estate and John, if you want to go ahead and start, that'd be great.   John: Okay, I'm the CEO of John Burn's real estate consulting, I founded it back in 2001, to figure out what's going on the housing market for a lot of people, mostly big companies and that's what we do.   Michael: Love it and Gary?   Gary: Sure, I am Gary Beasley, I'm the co-founder and CEO of Roofstock and we've been at this for about six and a half years now. Building out really the complete ecosystem for single family rental investors and I've known John now, I think, John, since about when you started the company, it feels like we've known each other for a while we when we I think when we met we we both had dark hair. Remember that?   John: It's been a very long time.   Michael: That's great. Well, I wanted to chat with you both around a lot of things that I've been getting questions about, and I'm sure that the two of you have as well and that's just kind of what's been going on with the housing, market and economy over the last couple years since the pandemic started. So I would love to just jump into things get into the meat and potatoes and get both of your thoughts on really year over year, what's been going on at the macro level in the housing market.   John: Well, I guess I go first, if you let me go back maybe three years, so but pre the pandemic because I think it's relevant. The housing market was extremely hot. We have a different view than a lot of people on on how undersupplied the market was, we don't think it was I just applied at all actually until about 2019, then it started to be under supplied and with interest rates. So damn low everywhere in the world, people had figured out that single family rental housing was a great investment just to get some yield and we were seeing a lot of investors come in to the market, then COVID hit so you know investors are very volatile. They stopped for a few months, and then they came back very strong and probably the biggest difference in the last year is the fear of inflation has piled in on top of the need for yield and it's double the reason to invest in rental homes. So we're seeing money from all over the world focused on housing in America.   Gary: I would agree that clearly the residential market has been booming and I would say despite a number of factors that you would have thought might have slowed it down. We went through a global pandemic, and housing chugged right on through and we could talk later perhaps about why some of those things happen. But the reality is really kind of across price points and geographies. You've seen robust demand for housing and if you look at price increases year over year, John, I know you track the SFR space really closely and it kind of mirrors what's been going on even if you look at owner occupied sales, but home prices have been going up call it 15 plus percent, year over year, pretty consistently. That's a big number, when you think about historically, it's been about 4%. If you go back 40 years on a compounded basis. That's how it had been up until fairly recently.   So a lot of you know in rents have lagged that a bit but you've seen high single digit to low double digit rent increases as well in a lot of these markets and so in oftentimes, I feel rents are a little bit of a lagging metric because especially a lot of the mom and pop owners don't raise rents every year don't raise them, really even to market so we're seeing a lot of homes come to market today that have rents that are 10 or 20%, below where the markets are today. So, so you've got just a lot of demand for the product and, you know, we're at an interesting time now, and I'm sure we'll talk about, you know, some of the current dynamics in the market, interest rates have moved up quite a bit in the last, you know, month to six weeks, we've got a lot of interesting things going on geopolitically, we're not yet seeing that impact, demand or pricing. One would think that those factors should that have an impact over time. But for now, I think just the supply demand dynamics very, very much in the favor of demand over supply.   Michael: Okay. Interesting and I'm curious to get both of your opinions on this, I mean, we are at such a unique time, kind of in history and curious to know your guys's thoughts on do you think that real estate investing fundamentals have it all shifted because of where we find ourselves today? John, I'll let you go first on this one.   John: I don't know if the fundamentals have shifted, because I've seen this game before. But what is different is that by investing in rental homes has become a very easy thing to do, thanks to Roofstock and others. I mean, prior to 2012, you couldn't get on your computer and figure out exactly how much a home was worth and how much it could rent it for in about five minutes, you can now there's all sorts of vehicles where you can invest in funds and completely passively invest in housing and I think it's become an asset class that really was very illiquid, and pretty lumpy before that now has become more liquid and I think that is a permanent change in the market, doesn't mean things can't go down. But I think it's actually had a permanent positive increase permanently on home prices.   Gary: I would agree with John, I don't think the fundamentals, I don't think the fundamentals of real estate investing have changed. But I would say perhaps some of our maybe preconceptions or assumptions about how it would perform is I kind of mentioned earlier, or maybe a little bit challenged, and that there's just so much demand for the product and in the pandemic. You know, it was almost counterintuitive that home prices would go up and rents would go up. But when you think about the fact that people really demanded shelter, safe shelter, and there was an exodus of from a lot of the coastal cities to secondary and tertiary markets drove a lot of that demand. So but I think still, the fundamentals of real estate are very much about location and supply and demand. Those things, those fundamentals I think are true. I think one of the things we're seeing though is perhaps there are different things get that can drive, demand and pricing for different types of real estate assets. So if you look at for example, housing, and industrial, which have done quite well, throughout the throughout the pandemic and the aftermath, and then you had some real estate asset classes that really suffered, because you look at office and retail and and REIT in hotels, things like that. So it's it. I think real estate broadly can be influenced by different things. The fundamentals of each have to be examined, but certainly for housing. It's been it's been very strong, despite what might you might have considered some some headwinds.   Michael: Okay, interesting and you both touched on inflation in the conversation thus far and so I'm curious to know, how much of the demand do you think is being really driven by inflation? And do you think that folks are right or wrong to be considering real estate investing as a hedge or as a defense against inflation?   John: People's expenses are going up and your investments should beat inflation and nothing in the treasury market does it in fact, nothing in the high yield bond market pretty much does it now too, I don't know how you earn returns. But this was going on pre COVID and that's why I mean that there was a surge of money coming into the market pre COVID. We at our conference at the end of 2019, we had Bruce flat, the CEO of Brookfield asset management, who at the time manage more than $500 billion was fundraising all over the world and he literally said that this is the most significant thing he seen in the last 15 years, is everything that produces cash is gonna go up in value, and that was pre COVID and so that this this has just got even more accelerated because inflation wasn't even part of the equation. Now if you're now if you need to beat inflation in your return and inflation is right now the latest print is seven 8% where you're going to get seven or 8%? And so housing, if wages go up which they are, you can raise rents, if the cost of the structure going up is going up, which it definitely is, every single component in the house has gone up, their cost of construction has gone up at least 10% in the last year. That's an inflation hedge too, because nobody's gonna replicate what you own for the same amount of money. It's very much an inflation hedge.   Gary: Everything points toward continued inflation, in my view in the housing market. Now, that being said, interest rates going up, you would think should moderate that. That's an offsetting influence, but the cost of the inputs, the labor and the materials, clearly upward pressure, everything that's going on in the world, disrupting the global supply chain, and the cost of transport and all that putting upward pressure, Pete wage inflation to keep people in their seats, and to hire people. That's allowing people to have more and more money to spend on housing that's also pulling pricing up. It's hard to see how much that's going to, in an absolute basis reduce the price of housing, I do think that we will see some moderating of the rate of inflation of homes over the upcoming quarters and years, I think that 15% is gonna come down naturally. But I don't see, I don't see it coming down to the point where it actually reverses and you see absolute price declines, like we saw in that really unusual time in the Great Recession, which was, arguably a once in a generation adjustment to housing prices there. I think, a lot of fundamental differences between what we're seeing today and and what we saw back then this is not a credit bubble.   John: So I agree with everything you said until this is not a credit bubble. I mean, maybe you meant a credit bubble on housing, because I agree with you.   Gary: That's what I mean, I mean that there's a lot of embedded equity, as opposed to people, you know, having 3% or less equity in their homes, they've got 20 plus percent equity. Now, you can talk about the I wasn't speaking to the global kind of free money, credit bubble, but…   John: Well, that's a I think there's a credit bubble going on in the world on pretty much everything else. I mean, Dodd Frank, made it impossible to do it on a mortgage going through a bank. But people are lending against crypto, it's the highest borrowing and stock prices ever. We're seeing deals even in single family rental that well, I would say are being done with pretty much no due diligence, because it's a mess piece. So there's a little bit of equity in front of me and what I worry about is a recession caused by a credit bubble outside of the housing market, which impacts housing demand and you know, that's when housing was struggle, but I think everything else in the world would struggle at the same time, maybe even more, so. So I'm not, I'm not saying get into stocks or bonds, because it's just that, that that's what caused the great financial crisis, and it was housing last time. I think it's other stuff this time. We were seeing flip flipper loans are being securitized on Wall Street. I mean, there's, you know, I see that in my business, one of my clients is lending against crypto balances. You know, I think another famous person just came out and said, if you've got if you can put up crypto, I'll give you the value of your crypto to make a down payment for a house, that there's some different stuff going on. That concerns me but not on buying rental homes or Roofstock more concerning on the economy.   Michael: Okay and so curious, John, just, you know, personal thoughts. What's a good defense?   John: You know, normally it would be cash, but holding on to cash it goes down 7% in a year. So I think Howard Marks who's a famous investors calls this an everything bubble. We're in an everything bubble right now and how do you invest in an everything bubble? I have no idea. That's why I run it…   Gary: Maybe maybe negative interest rate German bonds don't seem so crazy.   Michael: Yeah.   John: Well, no, exactly. So, so if you're, if you know, in the coming world, losing 3% is probably a good deal relative to everybody else if that's if that's how that plays out.   Michael: All right, well, keep both you keeping your eyes and ears peeled and let me know if you hear something great for hedge against the everything bubble, I'd appreciate it.   John: Well, it's it's still specific. I mean, that that's what the smart people aren't doing. They're just, they aren't going to do just a sector. They're looking at everything carefully and in this industry, if you don't have a lot of competition going around where you're making investments, that's a far safer place to be if there's some great job growth in your conference. In a job growth because those employers are profitable and making money and going to be there all the time, that's a different story than the job growth being in a sector that's currently losing money, for example.   Michael: That makes total sense, that makes total sense. I'm curious if we could take a step back and understanding that neither of you work for the Federal Reserve, but I'm curious to know your thoughts and kind of get some insight into? I mean, you talked about the wage growth going up, and then the cost of goods and services going up? How do we not get into this upward death spiral? And I know, Gary, you mentioned, you know, raising interest rates could curtail that, but it seems like there's just so much money out there how to, how do we kind of ease down from this?   Gary: Yeah, well, I think there's it I don't know, if there's been a tougher, it's never easy being involved with setting Fed policy, but you have a lot of things to balance here. This is a tightrope act. So you want to slow the economy here, enough to curtail inflation, yet, not necessarily throw it into a big recession, you've got a lot of things going on overseas, that should you could argue are already going to cause things maybe to slow a bit because of what's going on over there. So do they need to pump the brakes as much here. So maybe that means that the Fed doesn't raise as aggressively here and what that may mean is, you know, rates grow a little bit more slowly and maybe the economy tends to overheat despite the global weakness. So it's a really, really challenging balancing act, I think that the Fed is under enormous pressure to curtail inflation and so I think, despite that, we'll probably err on the side of pumping the brakes a little bit heavier, even though that may mean we're risking recession. That would be I'd be curious, John, if you have a view. But if I had to, like on the continuum of what they're more worried about right now, normally, they're, you know, I would say that they've been historically more worried about not wanting to put us in the recession. But we've never, in a long time had these sort of inflationary pressures and in particular, where I think people feel it, it seems to be at the gas pump, right? We're always talking about fuel prices people feel that very deeply and there's a lot of political pressure, even though the feds, in theory, a political, political pressures tend to work their way into those decisions.   John: Yeah and my 30 plus years of paying attention to this, I've never seen the Fed more politically tied than they are right now. They frankly, they seem to me to be puppets of elected officials. I mean, the fact that Powell had to announce for months and months and months, they were going to raise rates, but never raised them once until he got reappointed will tell you something. So I mean, I always honestly think it seems to me like elected officials are calling the shots right now and I think the ultimate fear is a recession or we want to get inflation down, because inflation isn't good either and then, you know, the way I think about this, too, is there's, if you really talk about people's true costs, there's a huge variation in inflation. So if you're a homeowner who owns your car, you know, your your housing costs haven't gone up at all, maybe you got a little bit of a property tax reassessment, you haven't had to go back and purchase a car or release a car and if you are close to work or working from home, frankly, your cost of living might be down over the last year or two.   If you're somebody who's commuting to work, Rance had to you know, really your lease was up had to get another car. I mean, your cost of living can be up to 15 to 20% and the Fed seems to be focused on those people, rightly or wrongly. But that that's how I'm thinking about this is it's a huge difference in what's actually happening depending on what you are, and then the wage growth. You know, if you're in the hospitality sector, you haven't seen anything. But if you're a construction worker or a truck driver, your wages are up dramatically. So and those are the ones I that we're seeing that are buying homes, renting homes, people that are affluent, able to work from home, hey, I can I can now go out to the suburbs and rent a really nice house and my housing costs are gonna go down, not up because my boss says I only need to come into work twice a week. So it's it's very complicated story on picture painting here, but that's exactly I think how the Fed is looking at it.   Gary: Yeah. And then you also have, obviously those who own assets versus not I mean, this is similar to what John was talking about, but not only can you have the cost of living impacted a lot, a lot less if you own your assets. But in fact, John, you may know this figure I read it, I think last week, some fairly sizable percentage of the US population made more off of their homes this year than they did from their jobs. The power, the power in an inflationary environment of owning assets, it's kind of hard to overstate it. That I think one of the reasons, I think we're seeing more and more kind of first timers wanting to own their first investment property, even if they aren't in a position to own the home they're living in right now. Going to some of these lower price markets, and getting on the ownership bandwagon and just writing that asset appreciation. It's, you know, it's a powerful force.   Michael: Yeah, absolutely.   John: I think you were going to say, it's a powerful drug.   Gary: Well, some people do become addicted to it…   John: We're starting to see that. So people are taking the $200,000 in price appreciation of their house with a refi out of their investment, and then using it to buy three or four more homes, right, that that's what's going on right now. So it is it is addictive.   Michael: Yeah. That makes total sense.   Gary: Yeah. Well, it's been it's been a, a tried and true, a tried and true way for real estate investors to make money, right is to buy that first property, refinance it, take that money, buy more properties and build. But I think, John, to your point, what's happening is, a lot of people are doing that with their primary home equity to get started, as opposed to being more of the intentional investor who just started to do that, I think more and more people are doing it with, you know, equity in their homes, which I think in many ways makes a lot of sense from a diversification standpoint, rather than having so much of your wealth, personally tied up in a single property address, where you happen to live, where you're really subject to the vagaries of your local real estate market, local job market, all that kind of stuff, because that's where you tend to work to diversify into other markets and other assets, I think does make a lot of sense.   Michael: John, would you agree?   John: Yeah, no, diversification makes a lot of sense. I just, I also think it makes a lot of sense to watch how much leverage you've got and to make sure you've got the cash flow, you know, just in case something bad goes wrong. And I think people that are investing like that, and doing exactly what you're saying, are going to be great. But last time, what we saw was, people just were ignoring that and then you lose your job, and then you lose your tenant, and you're your host. So you got you got to be careful here and I think the more I'm a generalized a little bit here, but the more mature people that have seen this before doing that, and I'm sensing the younger people only think home prices only go up and I are more willing to take more risk than I would recommend.   Michael: John, kind of to that point. I'm curious to get both your guys' thoughts if someone is taking out equity their home, because interest rates are so low, and they've seen the value go through the roof and they're going to go buy investment properties. What's the harm? What's the risk there? I mean, and how does someone know if they are over leveraged? If their cash flow is covering their mortgage payments? I mean, if the value dips, nothing really changes for them from a payment standpoint. So how should people think be thinking about being over leveraged or how much risk is too much?   John: I mean, that's a very personal decision for folks. You know, confidence in your employment situation is probably the most important thing and depends on what you do.   Gary: Yeah, I think, Michael, I mean, to your point, as long as they think it is an important point, in a rental home portfolio. Yeah, even if prices drop of that home and you've got a fixed mortgage, your payments don't change, right and unless rents come down, which they traditionally have not, they tend to be more sticky in single family rentals than say in apartments. We followed a lot of that data over time. So you should be okay. Even if on paper, the value of your home, your rental home has gone down. But I think in the primary residence, which is where John I think was going is if you let's say you have you know, 60% equity in your home and you lever it up to 90 through various means, then all of a sudden, you may be at a point where if you lose your job, and you don't have the reserves, you may be in a little bit of a tougher spot because you don't have that home equity to tap, which historically has just been a really nice thing to have as as a safety net and so when that if that were to happen you might have to sell some of your other properties or you have your equity elsewhere and it's not like you can't necessarily get at it.   But I do think in times where you do have some uncertainty, some global uncertainty and some things like that, having some reserves, make sense, not being over levered, make sense, play the long game, I think that's one of the things that we talk to people a lot about is, this is not a, you know, get rich, quick fix and flip, you know, strategy when you're buying investment properties?   Michael: Are you serious?     Gary: So over the long run, Michael, you're going to do just fine. But you have to be patient. So no, but there's plenty of there's plenty of ways you could make bats to win quickly win or lose quickly. But that's generally not what people are doing with us and I think there's times when people are more risk on is a lot of confidence to maybe lever up and things like that, I think this is a time to be more a little bit more thoughtful about all about leverage ratios and so yes, you give up some levered return, potentially. But if you're in a, I would argue if you're in a place where home prices are going up at such an extraordinary rate, you don't need as much leverage to get a phenomenal return. Even if you're only 50% levered, and your home's going up seven or 8% a year, that asset level, you know, obviously, you're doing much better than that, and the return on equity level, so I would say just don't get greedy. It's a long game and you know, make sure you're, you're around to, you know, fight another day, in case there's any sort of corrections.   Michael: To play the end of the game.   John: I mean, that that's the perfect, that's how I see it, too, is cut the long game. And that's how everybody who's been doing this for decades will all tell you that that's exactly the way to play it. I am I am seeing and hearing and running into 20 somethings who aren't listening to Gary's advice and I have no idea if that's 1% of the market or 40. But they're out there and fortunately, they're not getting loans from banks that 90% LTV, at least that I can find, so that's, that's good.   Gary: I mean, Michael, you talk to a lot of people all the time, what is what is your assessment are people do you think people are thoughtful about this? Do you think that is? Do you agree with John, that people who might not have seen a down cycle might be overly optimistic or do you think that they're better informed?   Michael: Yeah, you know, I think it's really a mix of the two, I think that there are two big camps. One camp says this is going to go on forever and that tends to be the folks that haven't seen a recession before and then there's the folks that say, you know, we're it's got to come down at some point and so let's just kind of see what happens and those tend to be the more seasoned folks. So I'm curious, I'm curious to get your guys's thoughts on for those two camps and someone who's just trying to get started trying to get their foot in the door? How should they be thinking about that, is this something that they can kind of catch on the upswing or is do they really need to be a bit more timid and reserved and say things are maybe a little bit too hot right, now let me let me just take a seat on the sidelines and see how this all plays out?   John: So we've been calling this the high risk high reward the part of the cycle now for 13 months. So I would have told you 13 months ago to be cautious and the person who would have taken a lot of risk what I made far more money than the person who listened to me so but that's how these things play out at the end at the end of the cycle. When you take a lot of risk you should make a lot of reward right? But you know, you also need to know when to take some chips off the table you know, unless you believe we're never going to have a recession again which I don't believe that and then also what Gary said has been very true for single family rental rents. The rents have been very stable over time compared to apartments because there's basically been very little construction of rental homes forever and there's always been a ton of construction in apartments and that's when you get hurt killed is when you know three huge apartment complexes open up down the store down the street totally empty and have to lease up 500 units you're done that even though billed for rent is growing pretty significantly in Phoenix right now it's still a lot smaller level of supply than apartments. So this is a more stable investment than comparative some other rental classes for sure.   Gary: Yeah, it's it's really we like to say it's a lot easier to go up then sideways because if you could you go vertical with apartments and it takes a lot more land and it's typically much more difficult to add the single family rental supply and then over time, you also have more than one on exit on the on the rental homes because you could you could exit to a yield investor or ultimately, an owner occupant. So that's I think one of the things that I've always liked about single family rentals is you've got built in optionality. It's very rare in a real estate investment, to have two very distinct buyer sets on the back end, right. You have an office building, you're going to sell it to an office investor. Same with a hotel, they would, but so this is, you know, I think a unique aspect of single family rentals, which gives, you know, it kind of gives investors a bit of a of a hedge.   Michael: Yeah, that makes total sense. Curious, what do you tell investors who come to you and say, John, Gary, you know, I can't seem to break in, all my offers are getting outbid by all cash offers that are 10 to 15% above asking, I can't go that hi, how can I get my foot in the door? What should I be doing? What tactics should I be using?   John: I mean, I might be the wrong person to ask because my clients tend to be very large companies, and this is for their capital partners, this is less than 10%, or maybe of what they're investing in the spectrum of certainly less than 20%. So they may be all in in this industry. But it's it's not, what you're alluding to, is maybe somebody with 100% of their net worth or 80% of their net worth getting in. That's, I don't advise on that, I mean, people are building rental homes, with the appropriate amount of leverage in good locations. That's where we're coaching people to go, there's also people building rental homes, with a lot of leverage in tertiary locations, right, where there's a lot of other construction going on and that that would be to me a higher risk scenario. I think I think there's room for 100 unit rental community, brand new built in every city in America of size, because you can pull it there's 1000s of people that rent ratty old homes with lousy landlords, and there's a percentage of them that would really love to rent something new. Well, and what's your biggest fear is the tenant that said, they're going to sell the house you live in it, you're gonna have to move out? Well, you know, if you're in a rental community that's owned by a public REIT, they're not selling the house, you know that that fear is gone. They may charge you a little more, because it comes with better service and other things. But I think that's a tremendous long term opportunities to build rental homes.   Michael: Interesting perspective, Gary?   Gary: Yeah, well, I would say, people should do their research, and be patient, be opportunistic, but but not be afraid to act with conviction when they find things that make sense for them and so I think, what we find is, on Roofstock, a lot of times people will come and they will look at properties for months and months and months and talk to people and kind of develop their strategy and eventually, something is going to hit your radar, that's going to check most of the boxes and in this market when that happens, as long as you've done enough work to kind of know this, then be ready to act, you know, I wouldn't recommend somebody come and buy the first home they see because then you're not you just don't have enough data. But when you see where these things are trading and all that, and so that's why I say you know, be disciplined, but also act with conviction, when you find something that does work if you do want to get exposure.   Otherwise, you could sit back and just sort of watch things. But you can also wait a lot of times with stock market, also people want to buy on a dip and just wait, maybe there is a little bit of a correction and that could be a time for people to want to wade back in. The challenge with waiting for a dip is, as John pointed out, there just hasn't been even throughout COVID there's been no dip, it's just, you know, been up into the right and, and so, you know, I don't recommend people just, you just buy because of the momentum, right? You want to, again, you want to feel good about the markets you're buying in and the home that you're buying. But also, it's really hard to time a market. It's just it's almost impossible. So heard that that's why overtime, we recommend people not, you know, even if you're only in a position to buy a home now once but, you know, have a design to own a portfolio of them over time and buy them at different points in the cycle and over time you get that market exposure. It's just, it's hard to time your ins and outs perfectly.   Michael: Yeah, yeah. Okay, cool. Well, I'm curious now to get your guys' thoughts and opinions looking forward, which I know is always a dangerous thing to do, but I'm going to ask you both take out your crystal ball and in talking, John, you mentioned about new newly built homes built to rent communities and so I'm curious to hear your opinions around, if the housing starts that we're seeing, since COVID, are going to have an impact, you know, several years down the road 8-10, you know, 5-10, eight years down the road, kind of like we're seeing now, as a result from the 2008, lack of home starts.   John: Yeah, we've done more research on that than anybody else. There's a couple people with some very simple analysis that says we're short, about five to 6 million homes. I think we're short about 1,000,007, which is still a lot of homes and that's not the same shortage in Buffalo as it is in Dallas. So you know, this is we've got the numbers by market. But at a high level, if we're short, 1,000,007 homes, there's 1,000,007 homes that have brand new homes that have paid for our permit that haven't been finished yet. So we've got all of that under construction and it's taking about nine weeks longer to build a house for the best production builders in the country. So this is taking a very long time, so it's going to be at least a year before we satisfy that, because there will be some growth along the way, too. So I'm not what is different about this cycle is the lack of construction. But what I want to point out is there's this notion that the low level of supply just means that this is almost a sure thing and I think the most important thing for housing has always been job growth always, even rates can go up dramatically. But if everybody's got their job, okay, we're, you know, maybe prices will be flat for a while, but we'll be fine. It's when you see massive job losses that we cycle down hard.   So that's why I was I was bringing up earlier the whole credit cycle issues. You know, know, if we if we knew exactly how much debt every company had in every industry had and how much they could cover their cash flow, I think I'd have more certainty. Some analysis I've seen is there's quite a few publicly traded companies that aren't currently generating enough cash to pay their debt service. That makes me concern they're not in the housing industry. In fact, the homebuilders have never been better capitalized like, they're amazing. They have the lowest debt levels ever and the bonds that oh, yeah, and the bonds they borrowed, they don't mature for like four or five or six years. So I mean, the homebuilt talk about a safe play, in terms of going through the cycle, I think it's the builders. I'm not recommending stocks, because I don't do that for a living, because I think all of this is priced in. But I'm telling you, publicly traded home builders are very, very strong, right now.   Gary: Yeah. You know, it's interesting, because John does such good research. So I have no reason to doubt the million seven. But I have seen, you know, estimates between four and 6 million homes deficit in in. So I don't know what the right number is and I'm sure that the method, there's methodologies that but but it's still, it's a couple of at least a couple million homes. The question is what, you know, what does that mean, going forward? Do we catch up as quickly? Can we catch up in a year or two?   That's, I think, optimistic. I think it'll be interesting to see if we do. One of the things that John mentioned was job growth, and that historically has been a real driver. What I think is so interesting now is jobs are so distributed and because companies are adding jobs doesn't mean the jobs are going to be where the companies are located and that kind of makes everyone's head explode. If you're trying to forecast, what's the impact of job growth, it really comes down, arguably, more to population growth. So local jobs are one thing and some things have to be localized, right? If you're going to work at a hotel, the hotel is in a particular place, if you're going to be a software engineer, working for Apple, you know, maybe you could be anywhere or any of these other places and so it's a it's a different calculus than I think it was 10 years ago of treatment, trying to forecast job growth from companies and then okay, well, people are going to need to live within a 30 minute commute or 45 minute commute it that's all upside down. So I think it does bode well for some of these secondary and tertiary places that have seen disproportionate growth. But then you also have these places like in Austin that continue to explode and arguably housings no longer very affordable but they keep building more houses and people keep buying them and keep renting them and there's plenty of land in a place like Austin and so I think almost looking at where taxes are low, and people can still get relatively affordable housing almost seems to be more powerful than local job growth. But I'd be curious about, you know, John's view of that.     John: No, he's right. There's a there's a large sector of the economy where you can live wherever you want and I mean, we, we've been doing this since before COVID, as I was never, never believed that all the best people to hire on the world, we're always within commuting distance in my office. So we've been hiring in good locations, and but you got to get the right person who can do that and companies have figured that out now. So your it is about a great location, it is about where I can get a lot of house for my money if I'm a tenant, or if I'm a homebuyer or I can pay lower income taxes, or I can have better weather. So it's really the same place as people were moving pre COVID. It's just more people have been given the permission to move. So you're right, the job growth. It's pretty correlated to the metro area. But I would say the more outlying areas should see more price appreciation, and they are seeing more price appreciation right now, because more people are being allowed to go there.   Michael: Okay.   Gary: Yeah and it's almost interesting. It's a little bit like the job, the jobs are almost coming with the people. So you think of a place like Boise, Idaho, where people move there not for jobs, necessarily, but because they could bring their jobs with them and they all had all this embedded equity in their homes for more expensive markets. So now you have all these people moving into a market like Boise, and you get incredible growth in the prices of homes in Boise. But now people are working from Boise. So are those jobs created in Boise are there jobs that now exist in Boise because it was inexpensive, and it's a nice place to live?   Michael: Yeah, I was gonna ask John, does that make it kind of squirrely to nail down that job growth metric because of this new phenomenon?   John: Yes and no, so there's two jobs surveys, there's one where they call the employer and said, how many people did you hire this month? That's based on where the employer is located. But the one where they call people and say, are you looking for work or not, that comes up with the unemployment number, that's where you live. So actually, we always triangulate the two. So I'll use my example. So we perfect example, I'm in Orange County, California, we hired somebody in Boise, but she could live anywhere. She's showing up on my here in Orange County on one survey, and she's showing up in Boise and the other, so you just you need to look at both the sample size on where the company's located is higher and better and the unemployment number at the Metro levels more volatile. So you got to look at a trend over time and not just overreact to a month or two.   Michael: That's super interesting. Okay, and great to know, too. So, the last question I have for you both, and I think I already know the answer. But for everyone listening, I'm gonna ask on their behalf and your guys' opinions, have there been asset classes that have become more valuable and less valuable as a result of the pandemic and if so, what, in your opinion, are they?   John: You can handle crypto, Gary. I am not going to touch that one.   Gary: Why don't you start then?   John: As I as I said earlier, I think new technology which was not around prior to 2012, has allowed the single family rental business to just blossom permanently And it's, it's now gonna be a permanent part of people's portfolio passively investing in real estate And that has already pushed up prices more than it would have been going forward. Whatever price appreciation would have been otherwise, it'll probably push it up a little bit more. The only thing you have to concern to certain yourself where there is, you know, the government doesn't like that And they tend to be pro homeownership. So you gotta watch regulation. I am seeing a lot of our clients tend to avoid California because they're afraid of rent control. So and there was just a Bloomberg article that 12 Different states have had rent control proposed because of all of this. So you just got to keep your antenna up on on that side. But the rent control is being proposed seems to be more reasonable. It's at the rate of inflation or maybe 1% higher than that, that you can raise rents. It's not, you know, zero or something ridiculous.   Michael: Okay and what in your opinion has been devalued or become less valuable, if anything?   John: Um, I can't think of anything that's become a …Cash!   Gary: It's it makes sense, right? I mean, you're you're losing. I mean, John, John mentioned, if you're literally if you have money sitting in your checking account, right now it's point 001% and we've got 678 percent inflation, that's how much you're losing by sitting in cash and so that does create a risk incentive to put it somewhere. And you know, I would say, Michael, I mentioned this earlier, but I think housing and industrial, which is driven a lot by distribution for E commerce, a lot of those have been really darlings of, of, for investors, they've become very much in favor and I do think you're still seeing some challenges with in some questions about office space demand and you know, not that there aren't always office investors, and there are always going to be people in offices, but there's probably structurally some percentage of less space that companies are going to utilize and so that puts maybe some uncertainty into the minds of investors, if there's another I think, I think a lens people investors are looking at today is okay, there's going to be another pandemic someday, what are the likely implications of this and, you know, office, retail, traditional retail was hurt by the pandemic, but it was also being crushed just by Amazon, right, and so you, so that's, I think, got its own challenges. And then hospitalities is very cyclical anyway, if people stopped traveling, you know, they didn't travel for a while.   So those those I think are, you know, maybe a little slightly more challenged than housing, which is, which has proven to be much more resilient than, than I think most people thought and, as a consequence, you have a lot of a lot of investors, not just, you know, traditional or not just individual investors or institutions from here. But yet people from all over the world saying, well, US housing looks pretty interesting, relative to other places that they could invest.   Michael: Yeah.   John: There's something we take for granted here called Title laws that don't exist in other countries. I mean, people in other countries don't want to buy real estate there, because the government could take it away from them. You know, and I hear that from foreign investors. That's one of the things that they love about investing in America.   Michael: Pretty scary notion if you had to be overseas   John: …Or get I should have mentioned everything that Gary said to I mean, there's a lot of huge funds, pension funds, who like to put a percentage of their assets a 10% in real estate all the time, and it would traditionally go into retail and office and hotel. Do you think they're ever going to go back to the same percentage of retail hotel and office? Probably not, it's going to be far more in this business. Because retail is now industrial. I mean, it's a warehouse and in line, you know, the best retail centers are all going to be fine in the best locations, but they're in line space is dead. So, so you're right, that's gonna push more money into our business.   Michael: Okay, well, guys, this was super informative. I know I had a lot of fun. Hopefully our listeners did, too. If people want to learn a little bit more about each of you, where's the best place for them to do that?   John: Oh, we've got a website https://www.realestateconsulting.com/ I post pretty regularly on LinkedIn. So you can look up John Burns on LinkedIn and get some free stuff every day.   Gary: I love the free hoodie that you got right there, Michael. John, I know you've got a Roofstock hoodie as well. I don't know if you ever wear it.   John: I do, I should have bought it today, I'm sorry about that I should.       Gary: So yeah, I think I would just encourage people, if they want to learn more about what we're doing at Roofstock just come to https://www.roofstock.com/ you could also follow me or hit me up on LinkedIn, I post pretty regularly there as well. But yeah, and keep checking out the podcast I know Michael's been doing a great job along with Pierre and the rest of the team here trying to get they couldn't get any interesting guests this this time so they got John and me but I know they've been otherwise doing getting some pretty interesting folks and doing a great job.   John: Well I saw that you're then the one of the top 1% of podcasters in the world. Hopefully we didn't push it down to 2%.   Michael: A filler episode though this this was great you guys. Thank you so much for taking the time and I very much looking forward to chatting again as we continue along this crazy trajectory that we're on.   Alright, everyone that was our episode, a big thank you to John and Gary for taking the time out of their extremely busy schedules to hang out with me and chat about what's been going on in the real estate market and where we might be headed going forward. As always, if you liked the episode, feel free to leave us a rating or review wherever it is you get your podcast, and we look forward to seeing on the next one. Happy investing…

Home builders are facing all sorts of supply chain issues that are contributing to higher prices and construction delays. Some are hoarding supplies in rented warehouses while others are putting in ghost orders for projects that don't exist yet. Whatever magic tricks they have to perform, they are running into problems right up to the finish line, including the almost impossible task of finding a garage door.Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.No Garage DoorThe dilemma facing builders prompted a recent headline in the New York Times that reads: “4 Bed, 3 Bath, No Garage Door: The Unlikely Woes Holding Up Home Building.” (1) Rick Palacios, Jr. of John Burns Real Estate Consulting told the Times: “Garage doors are a nightmare.”The article says that almost everyone is having a difficult time getting garage doors right now, and that prices have doubled or tripled for those doors. Plus, it could take several weeks to get one. Builders who used to order them a few weeks before a home is finished are now ordering them before they break ground.It's crucial to get that garage door in place. In many places, a new home won't pass inspection if it isn't completely finished. And that brings the project to a grinding halt including buyers who can't move in, and builders who don't get paid.A developer working on one of our RealWealth syndications in Reno says he had to buy a truck specifically to pick up materials wherever they can find them, even if it meant driving to Denver. He says the company he was working with locally hasn't been able to get any garage doors for months now and had to lay off their entire work force. That company is now filing for bankruptcy.In one of our residential developments, our team was able to negotiate with the city to close on the home without a garage door, so that families could move into their home.Garage As a NecessityThe garage is seen as a necessary part of a home in most parts of the country. And with many people moving farther away from cities because they can work remotely, the car becomes even more important, along with a garage to house the car and the garage door. Many people use the garage as their main entry into the home. The Times says that 9 out of 10 new single-family homes had one in 2020. The article had photos of homes that were otherwise done except for the garage door, which is covered with plywood. Some builders are installing cheap, temporary doors until the better ones arrive. But it's not what new homeowners want to see as they do a walk-through.The difficulty getting a garage door is a final gotcha moment for builders who've already been doing a tap dance to get the materials they need. Along with a materials shortage, prices have gone up by at least 50% for most things. Erin Roberts of Ernst Young told Construction Dive: “It's as bad as any time during COVID.” (2)Skyrocketing Prices, DelaysThe Associated General Contractors of America says prices for steel mill products have gone up the most in the last year. They're up 112%. Prices for steel pipe and tubing are up 78%. Plastic construction products are up 35%. Lumber and plywood are up 21%. The list goes on.And then there are the delays in getting those more expensive supplies. Roofing materials, steel bar joists and metal decking are all taking 8 to 10 months. Aluminum windows, structural steel, and metal studs are taking almost as long. Construction Dive says that roofing materials are “as scarce as hen's teeth.”Peter Guffo of Boston-based Suffolk Construction's South Region told Construction Dive: “We're at the point now where we're warehousing materials, and getting them wherever we can. If you have to move it twice, you move it twice.” He says the cost of moving supplies twice is much less than not having those supplies and halting construction.The New Supply Chain SetbackNow, the Russian invasion of the Ukraine is throwing another monkey wrench into supply chain slowdowns. As the U.S. and other NATO countries impose economic sanctions, and global companies cut off trade with Russia, there are new supply chain issues to deal with. (3)One of the big ones is oil. Russia is the world's third-largest oil producer, and supplies about one of every ten barrels of oil used by the global economy. Losing that oil supply is raising the price of oil elsewhere and that's increasing costs for production and transportation. Russia also provides about one fifth of the world's supply of natural gas. Both Russia and Ukraine are major players in the export of wheat, corn, barley, and fertilizer. Some materials and metals used by the semiconductor industry also come from Russia. Flight diversions and cancellations have put pressure on cargo space which is causing new supply chain delays. Those issues may not directly impact U.S. homebuilding, but they add to the increasing complexity of getting supplies produced and delivered from point A to point B at a reasonable price. As Construction Dive points out, “it's anyone's guess” as to when the supply chain snarls will end.ABC's chief economist Anirban Basu says: “It may seem naive given current data readings, but the expectation remains that, at some point later this year, construction materials prices will moderate.” Other industry insiders are not so optimistic. They say they don't see any relief until the end of this year or longer. If you'd like to read more about this topic, you'll find links in the show notes for this episode at newsforinvestors.com.Also, please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!You can also join our real estate investor network for free at newsforinvestors.com. That gives you access to the Investor Portal where you'll find information on rental markets and sample property pro-formas. You can also connect with our experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more. Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.Links:1 -https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/15/upshot/homes-garage-door-shortage.html2 -https://www.constructiondive.com/news/hoarding-ghost-orders-and-pop-up-warehouses-constructions-new-supply-cha/619131/3 -https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/01/business/economy/ukraine-russia-supply-chains.html

There are experts in the building materials industry who are certain that we're about to see a huge growth trend in offsite and modular construction — the kind of growth that can truly disrupt the industry and how we build its future. This week, Zach talks to Tim Seims, from John Burns Real Estate Consulting, about modular and offsite construction and the impact that we expect it to have on the building materials market.

Earlier this month, Zillow quit the iBuying business. The firm would no longer buy and sell homes. TRD reporter Erin Hudson discusses what happened and why Zillow's exit from the iBuying industry is so significant. You'll hear from Trulia co-founder Sean Black, who sold his firm to Zillow in 2015, as well as Rick Palacios Jr., who leads research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting.

Chris Dorociak, Senior Vice President at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, has joined us to discuss the reactions to today's housing challenges, how they differ from market to market and what insights we can apply to our sales strategies. With supply chains remaining tight and our customers continuing to reflect a growing number of millennial buyers, what are the benefits, risks, and possibilities we can plan for in 2022?

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending November 20th, 2021... home price forecasts for next year, single-family rent growth, and a new record for build-to-rent home starts.Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.Economic NewsWe begin with economic news from this past week. The number of people applying for unemployment keeps dropping. Last week, just 268,000 people applied for state benefits. That's getting close to pre-pandemic levels which were in the low 200,000's. The number of people already getting state unemployment benefits is also lower. That number dropped to a total of 2.08 million. (1)Home starts were down slightly in October as builders struggled with supply chain issues and a labor shortage. They were down .7% from the previous month, but compared with October of last year, they were up slightly. Single-family starts were down the most, with a 3.9% decline. But there's a strong demand for housing, and builders are preparing for a much faster pace of construction. Permits rose for all types of buildings, with a 2.7% increase for single-families, an 8.2% increase for buildings with two to four units, and a 6.5% increase for larger multi-families. (2)Although builders are dealing with a lot of challenges, they are feeling confident about the market because there's such a huge demand. According to the National Association of Homebuilders, the level of confidence among builders is the highest it's been since last May. It's up three points for November to a reading of 83. (3) Mortgage RatesMortgage rates rose back above the 3% mark. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is up 12 points to 3.1%. The 15-year is also up 12 points to 2.39%. (4) Economists are blaming the increase on inflation, and are forecasting higher rates over the next few months. The National Association of Realtors senior economist, Nadia Evangelou, expects the housing market to slow down next year as more homes hit the market at higher prices with higher mortgage rates. (5)In other news making headlines…Where Are Home Prices Going?Zillow just published a new forecast for 2022 home prices. It is predicting that prices will rise 13.6% between October of this year and October of next year. In September, Zillow had predicted a 11.7% increase. Both those figures are lower than the rate of price growth for this year. They were up a record 19.9% between August of 2020 and August of this year. (6)Zillow researchers say: “The strong long-term outlook is driven by our expectations for tight market conditions to persist, with demand for housing exceeding the supply of available homes.”As Fortune reports, not everyone agrees with Zillow's forecast. Goldman Sachs expects 2022 prices to rise another 16%, while Fannie Mae is expecting a lower 7.9% growth rate. CoreLogic is only expecting a 1.9% overall increase in prices, and the Mortgage Banks Association says it'll be more like 2.5%. Single-Family Rents Move HigherAs you can see, home price forecasts are all over the map, but they all expect strong demand for housing to continue. And that's pushing rents higher for single-family homes.CoreLogic's single-family rental index for September shows that national rents are 10.2% higher year-over-year. Miami rents have gone up the most. Those rents are up 25.7% with rents for high-end homes rising the most. Phoenix is second on that list, followed by Las Vegas, Austin, San Diego, and Dallas. (7)John Burns Real Estate Consulting also tracks single-family rent growth. It shows that new lease effective rents were up 6% year-over-year in September. Phoenix was at the top of that list, at 14%. (8)Single-Family Build-to-Rent StartsThe housing shortage is motivating a lot of developers and investors to bring more build-to-rent homes to the market. According to the National Association of Homebuilders, housing starts for those homes hit the highest level ever in the third quarter. Construction has been ramping up, with 47,000 build-to-rent starts over the last year. (9)Builder.com says that's a 17.5% increase over the previous four quarters. It says: “With the onset of the Great Recession and declines in the homeownership rate, the share of build-to-rent homes increased in the years after the recession. And while the market share… is small, it has been trending higher.”That's it for today. Check the show notes for links and more info on these topics. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!You can also join RealWealth for free at newsforinvestors.com. As a member, you have access to the Investor Portal where you can view sample property pro-formas and connect with our network of resources, including experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more. Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.Links:1 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-drop-to-pandemic-low-of-268-000-as-labor-shortage-forces-businesses-to-avert-layoffs-11637242500?mod=economic-report2 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-home-construction-slows-as-builders-grapple-with-supply-chain-headaches-11637157193?mod=economic-report3 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-builders-are-growing-more-confident-as-americans-demand-more-housing-11637075714?mod=economic-report4 -http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/5 -https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/2021/11/19/inflation-drives-mortgage-rates-over-36 -https://fortune.com/2021/11/18/zillow-changes-2022-real-estate-outlook-what-to-expect-from-home-prices-next-year/7 -https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/2021/11/17/property-owners-see-big-opportunities-in-single-family-rentals8 -https://www.realestateconsulting.com/the-light-bsfri-new-lease-effective-rents-up/9 -https://www.builderonline.com/data-analysis/single-family-build-to-rent-starts-reach-highest-quarterly-volume_c

The weakest projection comes from real estate research firm CoreLogic, which is forecasting just a 2.7% appreciation in the coming 12 months. Meanwhile, John Burns Real Estate Consulting and Freddie Mac—which do calendar year forecasts—project home price growth of 4% and 5.3%, respectively, in 2022.

In this panel interview of three building products trends experts from John Burns Real Estate Consulting, you'll hear more on the consumer trends and investor trends that are impacting the construction industry now and into the future.Topics:The Importance of Talking to People Outside of the IndustryCurrent Trends in Architecture and Design: The Rise of "Sink Mania" & Changing Exterior Elevation DesignConsiderations for Manufacturers Given the Acceleration of Home Improvement and Flex SpacesTrade-Offs in Home Trends to Improve Working From HomeThe Impact of Sister Cities on Building Materials DistributionDesigning for The Rise of Build To Rent & Connected HomesConsiderations for Adoption of Connected Homes and Connected CommunitiesThe Difference Between True Innovation and Step Changes in Building MaterialsHow to Feed Your Content With the Voice of the CustomerThe State of Building Products WebsitesBest Pieces of Advice That the Panel Has Ever ReceivedView the LIVE episode here.

This week, Binance.US CEO Brian Brooks joined along with Bloomberg Wall Street correspondent Sonali Basak to talk about hiring ex-regulator Manuel Alvarez and why regulation does not have to be a bad thing for the crypto space. Alyse Killeen, the founding managing partner at StillMark, the first Bitcoin-specific venture capital firm, discussed investing in bitcoin. Rick Palacios, principal and director of research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, came on to talk about the housing market and why it's still so difficult to find building materials. Then Octahedron Capital Management founder Ram Parameswaran, who has been a very consistent bull on the Chinese tech sector, discussed whether Beijing's crackdown has made him rethink that stance. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

In this episode, I spoke with David Jarvis, Senior Vice President at John Burns Real Estate Consulting. David has more than 25 years of real estate and home building experience in a variety of concentrations including land acquisition and development, land planning, home building, commercial real estate and residential sales. To learn more about John Burns Real Estate Consulting, feel free to check out their website at realestateconsulting.com Follow us on: LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/minjayan/ Substack: https://substack.com/minjayan Instagram: @cre_mediagroup Twitter: @minja_yan Clubhouse: @cre_min Please contact us here: https://www.cre-media.com/contact Disclaimer: This commercial real estate podcast is intended for commercial real estate professionals, institutions, and investors only. The presenter(s) is(are) expressing his/her (their) view(s) and opinion(s) regarding economic conditions, financing programs and features. The views expressed in this show are for informational and educational purposes only, and do not imply suitability. Each situation is unique, and prior to investing, all programs should be reviewed independently for suitability. Views and opinions expressed are those of the presenters only and do not reflect the views of their employers, institutions, and associations. The information is not intended as investment advice, is not a recommendation about investing, and the presenters and their companies are not acting as your fiduciary.

Mr. John Burns with John Burns Real Estate Consulting, with over 40 years of real estate research gives his take on the housing market. Where is the ceiling? What markets are stronger or weaker than others? We all want to know! See more at his site www.realestateconsulting.com.

This week, Rick Palacios, principal and director of Research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, went through the latest in the lumber market frenzy and the impact on the U.S. housing market. Bloomberg Opinion columnist Conor Sen and Neil Dutta, the head of U.S. economics at Renaissance Macro Research, debated whether the economic cycle has peaked. Mike Pyle. chief economic advisor to Vice President Kamala Harris and former chief investment strategist at BlackRock, came on to react to the April CPI data and discuss whether those inflationary pressures will make passing the Biden Administration's spending plans more difficult. Then Nic Carter, the founding partner at Castle Island Ventures, went through the wild week in crypto and Elon Musk's bitcoin reversal.

Adam Sachs, CEO and co-Founder of Vicarious Surgical, a robotic surgical company backed by Bill Gates, on using robotics technology and virtual reality to perform surgical procedures. Rick Palacios, Principal, Director of Research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, on the investment outlook for real estate. Lauren Sauer, Johns Hopkins University Associate Professor of Emergency Medicine, on the latest news surrounding the coronavirus treatments, vaccines and spread. Bloomberg's Renita Young, in collaboration with Bloomberg Quicktake, explores how marketers are underpaying Black influencers while pushing Black Lives Matter. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller (Kailey Leinz filling in for Paul Sweeney.)

Before you listen to this article, please check out my Carfagno Cleaning article, "Home Trends that Intersect with Cleaning". I credit my friend Mary Ann Alig of Fox & Roach Berkshire Hathaway Realtors for the content that drove this article and this podcast episode. Mary Ann shared 8 home trends that realtors are seeing for this new decade. Trends like these tend to change every decade and currently include barn vs pocket doors, white interiors, shiplap, matching furniture, accent walls, rose gold, open concept, and multigenerational homes. In my article, I showed how these trends affect cleaning professionals. I also hint to all business owners how important it is to know your industry trends so you can stay ahead of them.There is one trend that I'd like to dig into on this podcast. It's the rise of the multigenerational home. Fast Company in a 2019 article states, But for complex reasons that still puzzle researchers, multigenerational households are now on the rise once more. As many as 41% of Americans buying a home are considering accommodating an elderly parent or an adult child, according to a survey conducted by John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Living with your parents (or your adult children) has plenty of potential benefits–everyone tends to save money, it can potentially benefit health outcomes, and you get to spend more time together." Did you hear me? 41% of Americans are considering this in the 2020's. That's more than a trend. It's a paradigm shift. I want all cleaners out there, regardless of your business model to hear me. If you don't get in front of this shift and ensure your company is a leader in multigenerational house cleaning, you could be out of business in 10 years! It's crazy! Now, I'd like to talk to the solo cleaners that are actually doing the sales and cleaning. How do you position yourself to acquire clients like this? It's simple really. When you clean for one generation like a millennial couple or retirees, you must earn their trust to stay there long term. When you clean for two generations like a family with kids, you need an even greater trust factor. And if you follow where I'm going here, you need even more trust to clean for 3 generations under the same roof. The answer is trust building. The better you are at trust building, the more completely you can serve 3 generations under the same roof. This leads to more money per client and referrals to others just like them. Imagine this. You have a client like I do. Andy is the dad. His adult children live with him and his father Don lives with him. I have invested time during cleaning visits to get to know all 3 generations. Don has even become a friend and mentor to me locally. I do a great job at their home and have earned a lot of trust. Do you think Andy will refer me? And by the way, he owns a local restaurant and knows a lot of people. Yes, he will. I am positioned nicely to reap a harvest with multigenerational homes because I clean them now with good reputation. I can share that on my website and with new prospective clients. I urge you to do the same.Read the rest of this article at the Solo Cleaning School website

As Chief Demographer at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, Chris helps clients understand the role demographics play in shaping the demand for their business. Chris and I discuss the big shifts ahead. For more information or to get started in multifamily investing, please visit: https://www.multifamilyinvestingacademy.com/. 

John founded the John Burns Real Estate Consulting to help business executives make informed housing industry investment decisions. The company's research subscribers receive the most accurate analysis possible to inform their macro investment decisions, and the company's consulting clients receive specific property and portfolio investment advice designed to maximize profits. The team takes great pride in enabling the profitable development of the best places to live in the world.John co-authored Big Shifts Ahead: Demographic Clarity for Businesses, a book written to help make demographic trends easier to understand, quantify, and anticipate. Before founding John Burns Real Estate Consulting in 2001, John worked at a national consulting firm for 4 years and for 10 years at KPMG Peat Marwick—2 as a CPA and 8 in their Real Estate Consulting practice.John has a B.A. in Economics from Stanford University and an MBA from UCLA, and works in our Irvine, California office.  He has attended home games for all 30 major league baseball teams, and regularly runs the hills in Southern California.The Norris Group originates and services loans in California and Florida under California DRE License 01219911, Florida Mortgage Lender License 1577, and NMLS License 1623669.  For more information on hard money lending, go www.thenorrisgroup.com and click the Hard Money tab.Video LinkRadio Show

John founded the John Burns Real Estate Consulting to help business executives make informed housing industry investment decisions. The company's research subscribers receive the most accurate analysis possible to inform their macro investment decisions, and the company's consulting clients receive specific property and portfolio investment advice designed to maximize profits. The team takes great pride in enabling the profitable development of the best places to live in the world.John co-authored Big Shifts Ahead: Demographic Clarity for Businesses, a book written to help make demographic trends easier to understand, quantify, and anticipate. Before founding John Burns Real Estate Consulting in 2001, John worked at a national consulting firm for 4 years and for 10 years at KPMG Peat Marwick—2 as a CPA and 8 in their Real Estate Consulting practice.John has a B.A. in Economics from Stanford University and an MBA from UCLA, and works in our Irvine, California office.  He has attended home games for all 30 major league baseball teams, and regularly runs the hills in Southern California.The Norris Group originates and services loans in California and Florida under California DRE License 01219911, Florida Mortgage Lender License 1577, and NMLS License 1623669.  For more information on hard money lending, go www.thenorrisgroup.com and click the Hard Money tab.Video LinkRadio Show

John Burns and his company (John Burns Real Estate Consulting) have a total of 70 people trying to figure out what is going on in the housing market. John gives us his take on what the housing market will look like as a result of billions of dollars in stimulus checks and PPP loans. Check out John's company at https://www.realestateconsulting.com/. If you want to participate in one of their surveys, email dbachman@realestateconsulting.com or jburns@realestateconsulting.com to help generate accurate data from real individual investors.

John Burns and his company (John Burns Real Estate Consulting) have a total of 70 people trying to figure out what is going on in the housing market. John gives us his take on what the housing market will look like as a result of billions of dollars in stimulus checks and PPP loans. Check out John's company at https://www.realestateconsulting.com/. If you want to participate in a survey, email dbachman@realestateconsulting.com or jburns@realestateconsulting.com to help generate accurate data from real individual investors.Start learning about real estate investing - SimplePassiveCashflow.com/startSubscribe to the Top-50 Investing Free Podcast - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/simple-passive-cashflow/id1118795347_________________________Top SimplePassiveCashflow Posts:This website has been going through daily improvements everyday since 2016. I admit things are a bit all over the place as I learn about these investments and wealth tactics.Events – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/eventsPast Projects - crowdfundaloha.com/past-projects/Simple Passive Cashflow’s Investor Friend Finder!!! –SimplePassiveCashflow.com/friendsMenu of Investing Options – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/menuLaneHack – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/lanehackPassive Investor Accelerator eCourse - SimplePassiveCashflow.com/ecoursePassive Investor Accelerator eCourse & Mastermind - SimplePassiveCashflow.com/journeyCoaching – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/coachingJoin our Private Investor Club – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/clubJoin our Team – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/jointeamOur Mission – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/missionPartner Opportunity – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/partnerProducts I support – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/productsAbout Lane Kawaoka – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/about-meQuarterly Investor Updates – http://simplepassivecashflow.com/investorletterSPC YouTube Channel – https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3cIIsGKx3osVU5rt2P0HfQReal Estate Book Recommendations – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/booksBackwards Engineering Happiness – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/happyRental Property Analyser – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/analyserVisit Lane in Hawaii – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/retreatStart Here – http://simplepassivecashflow.com/startUltimate Simple Passive Cashflow Guide to…1031 Exchanges – Simplepassivecashflow.com/1031guideNewbies – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/noobInfinite Banking – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/bankingYour Opportunity fund – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/ofundTaxes – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/taxTradelines – Simplepassivecashflow.com/tradelinesTurnkey Rental Guide: simplepassivecashflow.com/turnkeySyndication Guide – simplepassivecashflow.com/syndicationCrowdfunding – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/crowdfundingNetworking – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/peoplePrivate Money Lending – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/lendInvesting in Coffee/Cocoa – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/coffeeInvesting in Non-Preforming Notes – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/ahpRent don’t buy – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/homeInvestor Fallacy: Return of Equity – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/roeHow to Calculate Investment Returns – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/returnsWhy you should break up with your Financial Planner – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/fpQuitting your job – SimplePassiveCashflow.com/quit See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

John Burns Real Estate Consulting's own Senior Vice President, Jody Kahn, and Senior Manager, Devyn Bachman, take us on a quick history trip from the pre-COVID past to the up-to-the-minute present. They trace a market that went from boom to bust to a bigger boom.

Today's guest is Chris Porter. Chris Porter is Chief Demographer at John Burns Real Estate Consulting. He helps his clients understand the role demographics plays in shaping the demand for housing in the short and long term. He co-authored Big Shifts Ahead: Demographic Clarity for Businesses, which is now available for purchase. Chris was instrumental in developing their Housing Demand by Price Point and LifeStage model.  The research he leads informs many real estate professional's in their forecasting and market research. Before joining John Burns Real Estate Consulting in 2005, Chris worked for Reed Business Information's HousingZone.com web site, and was also Director of Electronic Media for Reed's Building and Construction Group. Before that he was an analyst at Rogerscasey, an investment consulting firm. Chris has a B.A. in Economics from Princeton University and a M.S. from Northwestern University's Medill School of Journalism and works in Irvine. Chris was involved with Toastmasters International for more than seven years, working to enhance his public speaking skills and helping others do the same. On today's episode we talk to Chris about major changes happening in home ownership, renting, migration within the U.S., job growth, and so much more. If you have interest in where growth will be in the years to come, then this is a must listen! Connect with Chris: Email: chris@jbrc.com Website: www.bigshiftsahead.com  Connect with Us: Website: www.themultifamilytakeoff.com Instagram: http://instagram.com/themultifamilytakeoff Email: Mike: Mike@themultifamilytakeoff.com Shawn: shawn@themultifamilytakeoff.com Rich: rich@themultifamilytakeoff.com DON'T FORGET TO SUBSCRIBE, RATE, REVIEW, AND SHARE

There's only a handful of real estate forecasters that I've followed over the years, and today's guest is one of them. I'm very excited to hear what John Burns has to say about today's real estate market and where it might be headed over the coming years.  John Burns founded John Burns Real Estate Consulting in 2001 to help understand shifts in housing demand, supply, and affordability. John has a Bachelors in Economics from Stanford University and an MBA from UCLA, and works in Irvine, California. And he's here with us today. www.RealWealthShow.com  

Chris Porter is a Senior Vice President and Chief Demographer at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, a boutique firm that helps executives make more informed residential real estate decisions. Chris helps the firm's clients understand the role demographics play in shaping the demand for housing in the short and long term, as well as demographics' impact on the overall economy. Along with CEO John Burns, Chris co-authored Big Shifts Ahead: Demographic Clarity for Businesses, written to help executives make sense of the seemingly confusing topic of demographics, which is such a big driver of demand. Chris is based in Orange County, California, where he lives with his wife and three young daughters.In this episode, Tyler and Chris’ discussion focused on how understanding often unclear demographic trends can lead to better predictions about the future. They went in-depth on the affect that COVID-19 has had on numerous demographic trends, including different life stages and generations, retail consumption, interpersonal relationships, immigration, migration and technological advancements.They also talked about the four biggest influencers of demographic trends, Big Shifts Ahead’s concept of Surban™ areas, the government stimulus, redefining prime real estate, Chris’ take on the current and future housing market, how society adapts to challenging circumstances and more. Elevate Nation can expect an informative show that clarifies confusing and conflicting demographics! Connect with Chris:Big Shifts Ahead Website: https://www.bigshiftsahead.com/John Burns Real Estate Consulting Website: https://www.realestateconsulting.com/ The following books were mentioned in the show:Big Shifts Ahead, by John Burns and Chris PorterThe BiblePredictably Irrational, by Dan ArielyNever Split the Difference, by Chris VossGetting to Yes, by Roger Fisher and William Ury Apply for coaching with Tyler! The world's top performers in any field have a coach to help them achieve drastically greater results and in less time. The most successful real estate investors are no different. To apply for a results coaching session with Tyler, visit coachwithtyler.com.This episode of Elevate is brought to you by CF Capital LLC, a national real estate investment firm that focuses on acquiring and operating multifamily assets that provide stable cash flow, capital appreciation, and a margin of safety. CF Capital leverages its expertise in acquisitions and management to provide investors with superior risk-adjusted returns while placing a premium on preserving capital. Learn more at cfcapllc.com.

John Burns with John Burns Real Estate Consulting (JBREC) joins us this week. For years, the JBREC team has consulted with builders, institutional funds, built-to-rent firms, and Wall Street landlords, offering in-depth market analysis and demographic insights to help businesses make better-informed investment decisions. This week, we take a deep dive into the data that matters, the data doesn't, and how Covid-19 has impacted builders and commercial real estate. Some insights will certainly surprise you. Residential and commercial real estate may not have the same two-year journey ahead. Commercial investors won't want to listen to this show!

In this episode of The Evergreen Experience™, recorded on June 19, 2020, Dave is joined by John Burns, CEO, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, and Todd Govig, President and CEO, Govig Executive Search. John and Todd share their experiences leading and adapting their Evergreen® consulting and professional services companies through the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, John share his current view on prospects for different real estate industry sectors and Todd shares his insights on executive hiring across industries.

SPECIAL EPISODE: NKBA Live: Brave New Business: Where Are We Today? The Latest Market Outlook Market conditions are changing rapidly. On this Brave New Business forum our host Bill Darcy, NKBA CEO, welcomed back experts from John Burns Real Estate Consulting for an update on the housing market and impacts to the Kitchen + Bath industry. Listen now to learn the latest market outlook from Todd Tomalak, principal & SVP, Steve Basten, senior manager, and Elizabeth La Jeunesse, manager at JBREC. Brought to you by the NKBA, KBIS and Kitchen & Bath Business Brave New Business: Where Are We Today? The Latest Market Outlook by KBTalks - Powered by The NKBA is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

The Tampa housing market could be among the first to come roaring back to life after the economy opens back up, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Dallas was named  as a potential post-pandemic boom market as well, along with a few other areas.   John Burns Real Estate Consulting is well-respected for doing in-depth research on the real estate industry, and specifically for national builders. This latest report looks at geographic opportunities for real estate investors within three categories.   www.NewsForInvestors.com  

Quarantine learning updates, marketplace updates and a deep dive into a Fireside Chat with Tim Seims and Dean Wehrli of John Burns Real Estate Consulting at the Design Lens Summit 2020. Check out the show notes on www.buildperspectives.com  

In today’s episode we speak with Todd Tamalak, senior vice president at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, who shares relevant data on COVID’s impact on new construction and remodeling jobs, including numbers specific to doors and windows.

SPECIAL EPISODE: NKBA Live: Brave New Business - What We Know So Far: The Impact to Housing, Remodeling, and Supply Chains Listen now as Bill Darcy, NKBA CEO and market expert John Burns, CEO of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, and his colleagues Todd Tomalak and Steve Basten discuss the current housing market conditions and the impact on the Kitchen and Bath industry. Brought to you by the NKBA, KBIS and Kitchen & Bath Business

In this episode, Zach talks to John Burns, CEO at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, about how COVID has changed the outlook for homebuilders in America and what building materials manufacturers can do to pivot their sales and marketing strategies and thrive in uncertain times.  

What will the new year bring for the housing market and real estate investors? Who will be buying and who will be renting? What changes will we see for single-family rentals and the build-to-rent market? What can investors expect from the economy in the coming year?   Today’s guest is real estate consultant John Burns. John and his team offer research and market analysis for building industry executives and their investors. They help clients make informed decisions based on homebuyer and renter demands. John is the co-founder and CEO of John Burns Real Estate Consulting and co-author of “Big Shifts Ahead: Demographic Clarity for Businesses.” He has a B.A. in economics from Stanford University and an MBA from UCLA. 

Jason Hartman talks with Chris Porter, Senior Vice President & Chief Demographer at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, about what trends their company has been seeing. There have been some profound shifts in the way that Americans want their communities, what they're looking for in a house, and whether they even WANT to own a house. Key Takeaways: [2:28] The labor shortage in construction right now is a great opportunity for new technology to come into the market [7:48] Some developer trends going on right now [11:47] The current housing trends of Millennials and Baby Boomers [15:14] Are the insititutional investors here to stay? [19:48] Chris' prediction on home ownership rates has been somewhat right. Why he thinks it wasn't completely acurate [24:41] Why the way generations are widely defined make no sense Website: www.RealEstateConsulting.com

In this episode, Zach and Beth talk to Todd Tomalak, Senior Vice President at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, about why he’s optimistic for the future of home construction, the one thing he wishes home builders would do more of, and why the next big construction hot spot may not be where you think.

Jason Hartman talks with Chris Porter, Senior Vice President & Chief Demographer at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, about what trends their company has been seeing. There have been some profound shifts in the way that Americans want their communities, what they're looking for in a house, and whether they even WANT to own a house. Key Takeaways: [2:30] The labor shortage in construction right now is a great opportunity for new technology to come into the market [7:50] Some developer trends going on right now [11:49] The current housing trends of Millennials and Baby Boomers [15:16] Are the insititutional investors here to stay? [19:50] Chris' prediction on home ownership rates has been somewhat right. Why he thinks it wasn't completely acurate [24:43] Why the way generations are widely defined make no sense Website: www.RealEstateConsulting.com www.BigShiftsAhead.com

Innovation has long been thought of as crucial to an organization's success. But, too often, there seems to be little innovation (and diversity) within the organization's board.   On this episode of The Corporate Director podcast, Margaret Whelan shares how boards can rethink value, innovation, growth, and diversity. Margaret is the CEO of Whelan Advisory, and also serves on the boards of the Housing Innovation Alliance, Mattamy Homes, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, and various other non profit boards.   What we talked about: Rethinking a firm's value An ROI-only approach is no longer the only measure of value You have to balance innovation with core business investment Value creation requires creative thinking Innovation is at the core of a company's performance DNA of the board itself affects a firm's innovative approach Suggestions for the future of boards in America:   Resources we mentioned during the podcast: A joint report by EY and Corporate Board Member on governing disruptive technology ISS report on 2019 U.S. Board Diversity Trends   You can find more interviews like this on our Corporate Director Podcast, hosted by Dottie Schindlinger and Meghan Day.   To hear this episode, and many more like it, you can subscribe to the podcast on our website, or on Apple Podcasts, or on Spotify.

Chris Porter is the Chief Demographer at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, which provides independent research and consulting services related to the US housing industry. Along with John Burns, Chris co-authored the book Big Shifts Ahead: Demographic Clarity for Businesses to help make demographic trends easier for executives to understand, quantify and anticipate. The book, which was a #1 best seller in several categories on Amazon, offers new frameworks executives can use to view big demographic shifts and to adjust their strategies when needed. In his role as Chief Demographer, Chris leads a research team aimed at helping executives make more informed decisions about the future of real estate on both the single-family and multifamily sides of the business. Chris is based in Orange County, California, where he lives with his wife and three young daughters. He speaks with us about the rental market, recession trends and the 456 rule. bigshiftsahead.com The Rundown Journalism Chicago Publishing Consulting Demographics Millennials Analyzing Data Informed Predictions Surprising Results Generations Recessions Telling A Story Research Personalization Family Formation Decades Boomers Immigrants Savers Achievers Innovators Equalers Balancers Sharers Connectors The 456 Rule Government Policy Economic Conditions Technology Societal Shifts Tax Codes Education Investment Driverless Car Rental Rates Rental Trends Property Management Economy Of Scale Surban Communities Habits for Success Missed Opportunity Book Recommendations Upcoming Speeches Subscribe to our Youtube Channel for lots of great content! Get tickets to our next Multifamily Mastery Event in Orlando!

In this episode, Mike O’Brien talks with John Burns of John Burns Real Estate Consulting about his market outlook and his firm’s “window and door hotness index.” The WDMA’s Kevin McKenney and Steve Orlowski discuss the potential implications of proposed Canadian formaldehyde regulations on U.S. manufacturers.

How are you feeling about the economy? Text thenorrisgroup to 22333 and then text in your one-word answer. We're preparing for I Survived Real Estate 2019, and this will launch our conversation tonight with Jim Park with The Mortgage Collaborative, John Burns with John Burns Real Estate Consulting, and Doug Duncan with Fannie Mae. Details on alll the speakers at www.isurvivedrealestate.com. Video Link

Jason Hartman talks with Chris Porter, Senior Vice President & Chief Demographer at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, about what trends their company has been seeing. There have been some profound shifts in the way that Americans want their communities, what they're looking for in a house, and whether they even WANT to own a house. Key Takeaways: [4:01] There's an amazing amount of infrastructure in our world that has been thought out to keep us safe [6:30] The history of labor day and why being an income property investor is a way to let yourself CHOOSE to labor Chris Porter Interview [10:08] The labor shortage in construction right now is a great opportunity for new technology to come into the market [15:28] Some developer trends going on right now [19:27] The current housing trends of Millennials and Baby Boomers [22:54] Are the insititutional investors here to stay? [27:28] Chris' prediction on home ownership rates has been somewhat right. Why he thinks it wasn't completely acurate [32:21] Why the way generations are widely defined make no sense Website: www.JasonHartman.com/Cruise www.RealEstateConsulting.com www.BigShiftsAhead.com

Jason Hartman talks with Chris Porter, Senior Vice President & Chief Demographer at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, about what trends their company has been seeing. There have been some profound shifts in the way that Americans want their communities, what they're looking for in a house, and whether they even WANT to own a house. Key Takeaways: [4:01] There's an amazing amount of infrastructure in our world that has been thought out to keep us safe [6:30] The history of labor day and why being an income property investor is a way to let yourself CHOOSE to labor Chris Porter Interview [10:08] The labor shortage in construction right now is a great opportunity for new technology to come into the market [15:28] Some developer trends going on right now [19:27] The current housing trends of Millennials and Baby Boomers [22:54] Are the insititutional investors here to stay? [27:28] Chris' prediction on home ownership rates has been somewhat right. Why he thinks it wasn't completely acurate [32:21] Why the way generations are widely defined make no sense Website: www.JasonHartman.com/Cruise www.RealEstateConsulting.com www.BigShiftsAhead.com

Rand Partners Podcast - Demographic Shifts with Chris Porter Chris Porter is the Chief Demographer at John Burns Real Estate Consulting and author of Big Shifts Ahead. Key Information: • 2 major shifts in demographics ◦ Increase in retirees will grow 38% from 2015-2025 ◦ Younger adults buying their first home later in life • More Renters Now than Ever ◦ Shift to low maintenance lifestyle ◦ • 4-5-6 Rule ◦ 4 Big Influencers ▪ Government Policy ▪ Economic Conditions ▪ Technological Advances ▪ Societal Shifts ◦ 5 Stages of LIfe ▪ Young Adults ▪ People Forming Families ▪ People Early in Careers ▪ People Later in Careers ▪ Retiring   ◦ 6 Questions the Demographics will Decide to Live ▪ Who ▪ Age Group ▪ What ▪ Buying or Renting ▪ Where ▪ Suburb vs city ▪ Rural vs city ▪ When ▪ Urgency to move ▪ How ▪ Affordability ▪ Why ▪ Moving because of weather ▪ Affordability ▪ Pro business environment • Surban community on the rise ◦ Surban is a mini downtown in the suburbs ◦ Want more conveniences of downtown without the expenses Contact Information: https://www.bigshiftsahead.com/ www.realestateconsulting.com

Kick off the second quarter of 2019 informed and prepared for the housing market ups and downs with this month's Lumber Talks episode. Tune in for insight on the housing market from industry expert, John Burns of John Burns Real Estate Consulting. NLBMDA CEO & President, Jonathan Paine sits down with Burns to discuss his observations so far this year around the latest economic trends in the new construction and remodeling sectors.

This episode we speak with Ali Wolf, Director of Economic Research for Meyers Research LLC. As head of the Economics Department, Ali manages and analyzes the content for Zonda, provides data analytics, runs special research projects, and does presentations across the country on topics spanning both the housing market and the wider economy. Ali’s specialty is understanding millennials and their impact on the market. Prior to joining the Meyers team, Ali headed macro, regional, and metro-level monthly economic reports at John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Ali was also a researcher for both the Canadian and UK Parliaments. Hear Ali's data-driven analysis and indicators she uses to determine the current state of the housing market.

In this episode we talk macro-level trends in the industry with Margaret Whelan, CEO of Whelan Advisory, LLC since 2014, where she provides strategic and financial counsel to leaders of both public and private companies in the U.S. and Canada. She is a seasoned executive and industry expert with a deep knowledge of industry drivers, players, valuation and financing alternatives. Margaret also serves on the boards of three companies: TopBuild, privately held Mattamy Homes, and John Burns Real Estate Consulting. She started her career in the equity research department at Merrill Lynch. Hear Margaret's take on demographic trends influencing home buying and homebuilding, her outlook on modular homes, and why there will likely continue to be a rise in demand for single-family rentals. You can find Margaret on LinkedIn or at www.whelanadvisoryllc.com.   

In episode 9 of our podcast, Dean discusses the state of smart home technology with Todd Tomalak, Senior Vice President at John Burns Real Estate Consulting.

For episode 3 of our New Home Insights Podcast, Dean talks with three millennials from John Burns Real Estate Consulting on their generation’s perception of the housing market.

Jason Hartman talks to Meet the Masters of Income Property keynote speaker John Burns, CEO of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, about how the autonomous car is going to change the look of cities, what a "surban" is, and why the 1980s is "the sharer" generation. The two also go into a more in-depth look about what kind of markets there are in the United States, and which hybrid markets may be on their way down. Key Takeaways: [1:53] Amazon's search for a second headquarter location, and where John thinks it will be [4:35] How John classifies markets [7:04] Hybrid markets like Austin and Dallas are seeing way more growth than they normally do in cycles, and why Austin's best days may be behind it [8:33] The world is shifting more toward suburban apartments, being driven by local money [11:09] The definition of "surban" [16:16] The nickname for those born in the 1980s is "the sharers" [19:17] The impact of autonomous cars Websites: www.RealEstateConsulting.com

Jason Hartman talks to Meet the Masters of Income Property keynote speaker John Burns, CEO of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, about how the autonomous car is going to change the look of cities, what a "surban" is, and why the 1980s is "the sharer" generation. The two also go into a more in-depth look about what kind of markets there are in the United States, and which hybrid markets may be on their way down. Key Takeaways: [1:53] Amazon's search for a second headquarter location, and where John thinks it will be [4:35] How John classifies markets [7:04] Hybrid markets like Austin and Dallas are seeing way more growth than they normally do in cycles, and why Austin's best days may be behind it [8:33] The world is shifting more toward suburban apartments, being driven by local money [11:09] The definition of "surban" [16:16] The nickname for those born in the 1980s is "the sharers" [19:17] The impact of autonomous cars Websites: www.JasonHartman.com/Masters www.RealEstateConsulting.com

Jason kicks off the show with a reminder for Meet the Masters, along with some quick tips for property owners about pet rent, your property manager, and running the numbers before purchasing your property. Then Jason Hartman talks to Meet the Masters of Income Property keynote speaker John Burns, CEO of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, about how the autonomous car is going to change the look of cities, what a "surban" is, and why the 1980s is "the sharer" generation. The two also go into a more in-depth look about what kind of markets there are in the United States, and which hybrid markets may be on their way down. Key Takeaways: Jason Intro: [5:05] A quick tip on pet rent [7:58] Pay attention to your property managers [9:37] Look beyond cash flow when evaluating properties to purchase [11:37] Returns shrink as markets become more sophisticated [13:28] Get some good photos of your home right when you purchase John Burns Interview: [17:36] Amazon's search for a second headquarter location, and where John thinks it will be [20:19] How John classifies markets [22:48] Hybrid markets like Austin and Dallas are seeing way more growth than they normally do in cycles, and why Austin's best days may be behind it [24:17] The world is shifting more toward suburban apartments, being driven by local money [26:53] The definition of "surban" [32:00] The nickname for those born in the 1980s is "the sharers" [35:01] The impact of autonomous cars Websites: www.JasonHartman.com/Masters www.JasonHartman.com/Contest www.RealEstateConsulting.com "The more perfect the marketplace, the less opportunity is available"

Sales of new single family homes surged in September, hitting new highs as the fastest sales pace in the past 10 years, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. In fact, sales are up 17% from last year in September, which was a big surprise to many economists, after August's low sales numbers.    Some say this sudden surge in new homes sales is related to the storms in Florida and Texas that had people from all over the world jumping in to buy much needed housing. But another expert suggested the increase was due to the low number of sales from the previous three months.   The median sales price of new homes sold in September increased to $319,700, up from $300,200 in August.    But despite the price increase, the gap between new and existing home sale prices is narrowing, making newly constructed homes more desirable.   With me today to help explain some of this is Mollie Carmichael from Meyer's Research. Prior to joining Meyers Research, Mollie was a Principal with John Burns Real Estate Consulting for almost 10 years. Additionally, Mollie served as Vice President of Strategic Marketing for Lennar and Kovach Marketing, Regional Vice President of Strategic Marketing for Pulte Homes/Del Webb for the California Region, and Vice President of Residential Product Planning for The Irvine Company.   She is dedicated to tracking homebuyer activity with nationwide surveys and market studies to help her clients maximize their financial results.    I am thrilled to welcome Mollie Carmichael to the Real Wealth Show… and to hear more about what our next waves of homebuyers are planning to do…   What do you make of this most recent new homes sales report?   Are we anywhere close to past sales peaks?   With prices up again, are we reaching a new high for new homes?   Where are builders having a tougher time selling?   What could tip the scales from lack of inventory to too much supply? What do builders and investors need to know?   www.RealWealthShow.com  

Chris Porter is coauthor of the new book Big Shifts Ahead, and VP and Chief Demographer at John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Jason Hartman talks with Chris about how demographic issues can impact the real estate market, the economy, and business cycles. Key Takeaways: [2:15] Exploring Chris' new book: Big Shifts Ahead: Demographic Clarity for Businesses. [4:47] Generational nicknames given to generations based on the shifts they ushered in. [13:20] The new generation is probably going to behave like their grandparents rather than their parents [14:16] The housing market is about to experience shadow demand [16:35] A third of all population growth in the US can be attributed to immigration [18:51] John Burns Real Estate consulting believes home ownership, over the next decade, will fall below 61% [22:17] Business relocation incentives in the south are enticing [23:52] Differentiating between urban, suburban, and rural communities. [28:26] How to bring the best of the urban settings to stereotypically suburban environments. Websites: https://www.realestateconsulting.com https://www.bigshiftsahead.com

Jason kicks off this episode with a reminder about the support he and his team gives their clients and his thoughts about the Trump administration and the forthcoming inflation. Guest Chris Porter is the coauthor of Big Shifts Ahead and the Vice President and Chief Demographer at John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Chris explains how demographic issues affect the real estate market, the economy and business cycles. Key Takeaways: [1:42] Advocating for clients is what sets Jason and his team apart from other real estate groups. [7:03] Jason only does business with top-shelf vendors. [9:14] An upcoming Memphis property tour? [11:53] The inflationary economy and the real estate market should do well under the Trump administration. [17:35] Income property is a multi-dimensional asset.   Chris Porter Guest Interview: [24:05] Chris dives into the new book Big Shifts Ahead: Demographic Clarity for Businesses. [26:37] Chris lists the nicknames given to generations which were based on the shifts they ushered. [35:10] A generation is more likely to act like their grandparents than their parents. [36:06] The impending shadow demand on the housing market. [38:25] Immigration has fueled one-third of the population growth in the U.S. [40:41] John Burns Real Estate consulting estimated home ownership will fall below 61% over the next 10 years. [44:07] Southern markets are offering incentives to businesses for relocation. [45:42] Defining urban, suburban and rural communities. [50:16] Surban - Bringing the best urban qualities to a traditional suburban environment. Mentioned in This Episode: Jason Hartman John Burns Real Estate Consulting Big Shifts Ahead

Steve Rattner, Willett Advisors' chairman, says Donald Trump's policies can transform the U.S. economy. Prior to that, John Burns of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, says the housing market is recovering and new home buyers are slowly entering the market. And Harris Associates' David Herro says that Trump was able to convince Americans that he understands them. Narayana Kocherlakota, a Bloomberg View contributor and former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, says the central bank has tools to dampen inflationary risk. Finally, Rhode Island Governor Gina Raimondo says the federal government needs to step up with infrastructure spending because states can't afford to bear the entire burden. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Steve Rattner, Willett Advisors' chairman, says Donald Trump's policies can transform the U.S. economy. Prior to that, John Burns of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, says the housing market is recovering and new home buyers are slowly entering the market. And Harris Associates' David Herro says that Trump was able to convince Americans that he understands them. Narayana Kocherlakota, a Bloomberg View contributor and former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, says the central bank has tools to dampen inflationary risk. Finally, Rhode Island Governor Gina Raimondo says the federal government needs to step up with infrastructure spending because states can't afford to bear the entire burden.