Podcasts about interest rate observer

The risk to bondholders is that the 2% inflation target becomes unbearable for the Fed, says Jim Grant, founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer. Grant is joined by Bloomberg Intelligence's chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey and senior US and Canada rates-strategy associate, Will Hoffman to discuss the outlook for US financial markets following a sweeping US tariff announcement. The trio discuss the rise of economic uncertainty and the extent to which recession risk may be priced in markets. They also unpack the role of US exceptionalism and persistent goods disinflation in the context of long-term market trends and how it may shift in a world leaning away from free trade. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.

When today's guest was last on this program back in June, he predicted that interest rates would remain "higher for longer".And the ensuing seven months proved him correct.With inflation remaining stubbornly sticky, new tariffs and other disruptive policies announced by Trump administration, $trillions in US Treasury debt to mature this year, and the return of the bond vigilantes....where are interest rates most likely headed from here?To find out, we have the great fortune of speaking today with perhaps the world's foremost living expert on interest rates, James Grant, founder and editor of the highly-respected market journal Grant's Interest Rate Observer.GET JIM'S FREE ARTICLE ON TIPS at https://thoughtfulmoney.substack.com/

Keith answers listener questions about getting started in real estate investing with limited funds and how to determine the true appreciation of a property against inflation. He also discusses: The impact of the LA wildfires on housing needs and some landlords raising rents excessively. Economic and housing challenges facing Canada, including high inflation and unaffordable home prices. And highlights the views of likely future Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Poilievre on addressing these issues. GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/538 Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, I answer three of your listener questions, then learn why LA area landlords got a bad name during this month's awful Southern California wildfires. Finally, why Canadians cannot buy houses anymore, and what lessons you can learn from Canada's real estate mistakes and the abject lunacy there today on get rich education.   Unknown Speaker  0:30   Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being the flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Unknown Speaker  1:16   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:32   Welcome to GRE from Gatlinburg, Tennessee to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are inside this week's installment of the program known as get rich education, I'm grateful that you're here, but you're not here for me. You are here for you. So let's talk about you and some of the listener questions that you wrote into the show about and as usual, whenever I have a batch of listener questions, I answer the beginner level questions first and then move on to more advanced questions. The first one comes from Jeanette in Seaford, Delaware. Jeanette asks, I only have a little money to invest in real estate. How do I get started with just a small amount of money. All right, Jeanette, well, first I would talk to a lender. You have to talk to a mortgage specialist or a loan officer to find out what you qualify for. You're basically getting them to punch holes into your financial picture. And then that way, Jeanette, you will know what holes to go, mend, so your loan officer is essentially giving you a free troubleshooting session. Now, our investment coaches here at GRE help you with some of that, but GRE doesn't originate loans, so you want to get with someone like a ridge lending group for help. And now, what are some of the holes that a mortgage lender might poke into your finances? Jeanette, well, getting your credit score up and they'll help you with that strategy. Or you simply need more dollars in savings, in what your mortgage loan underwriter calls reserves, or you might need to establish a two year job history, or you have to say, Pay off your car loan in order to get your debt to income ratio lower, or whatever it is. And since at GRE marketplace, the least expensive income property is probably about $120,000right now, a number that keeps going up with inflation. But what you would need is 23 to 25% of that between your down payment and closing costs, all right? Jeanette, so then about 28 to 30k that is the minimum lump of cash that you'll need to buy a property that is already fixed up and ready for a tenant, and that is a great way to start in real estate investing if you want to maintain your standard of living, okay, that is therefore the lowest entry point that you can do that. But if you're temporarily willing to let your quality of life slide for a couple years and maybe live communally. You can put as little as 3% down on a primary residence and then rent out the other rooms. Okay, that's the house hacking model, but depending on your setup, you know, maybe you're sharing a kitchen with roommates or suitemates, and therefore that temporary loss in quality of life. Maybe you can even Airbnb at a short term rental, in which case you will be buying the furniture. However, now with a 3% down payment on an owner occupied house, hack like that, you're probably going to have to pay a PMI premium, a private mortgage insurance premium of a few $100 per month. But still, this does get you in with very little money, since that's what you're asking about Jeanette. And finally, the third thing I'll bring up here is that you can get a combination of maintaining your standard of living and putting a small down payment on a property by using an FHA loan and three and a half percent down. And you can do that with a single family home, duplex, triplex or four Plex, living in one unit and renting out the others. So yes, you get both this way, but I will not go into the details on the FHA, because I have described that in detail on other episodes since it's how I started out myself. But there are a number of options right there for you to inquire about Jeanette, all starting with an investment centric mortgage lender like Ridgelendinggroup.com.     The next question comes from Jared in Pocatello, Idaho. Jared asks Keith, in the past year, my duplex in Pocatello went up in value 5% from 400k to 420k. How do I know how much of that 5% is true appreciation, and what portion of the 5% is from inflation? Oh, that is such a devastatingly cool question Jared, and that's exactly what I thought when I saw that question come in. Okay, so basically, Jared is asking, say, in this 5% price increase is 3% from inflation and 2% from appreciation, for example, or like, what is the breakout of those two components of the price change? And a lot of people don't understand the difference, and even know enough to ask a question this good. So props to you there. Jared. One thing you cannot do is just look at CPI inflation over the last year for the US, which is 2.9% and then say, Oh, well, then I guess the other 2.1% must be appreciation. Therefore, no, you can't really do that. There's more to it than that, for a lot of reasons. I mean consumer price inflation, like on a pound of ground beef at the supermarket, that is different from asset price inflation, and there are a lot of other reasons too. Appreciation is distinctly different from inflation, because the value of your property increasing 5% that has to do with the attractiveness of your property to the marketplace. Now there are attributes with appreciation, like proximity to high paying jobs, proximity to highways and shopping in desirable schools, which are basically those axiomatic Location, location, location qualities. Now I'm going to assume that you did not make an improvement or a renovation to the property Jared, because obviously that would hike up the value. Now other appreciation attributes that are distinctly different from inflation are things like population growth and wage growth in your area, what can really pump up appreciation is if the remaining availability of developable land starts shrinking and shriveling up in a desirable location. Contrary to popular belief, mortgage rates have little to do with appreciation. We can leave that out of this discussion. Now, how this is different from inflation is that inflation is not about the intrinsic value. Rather, inflation is the price of the home increasing because the currency is worth less. Now I hope that you find that explanation satisfying Jared, but what is dissatisfying is that it's actually hard to pin down a number and say, was this two and a half percent appreciation and two and a half percent inflation, or any other combination? And that's because inflation itself is practically impossible to accurately measure, and a lot of that has to do with an inflationary basket of goods that is just exceedingly difficult to adjust for attributes like quality and utility and substitution So Jerry did is likely that your duplexes 5% value increase is an amalgamation of both appreciation and inflation, that part I can confirm, but the exact breakdown for each is virtually incalculable, super insightful question there Jared.     The third and final of our three listener questions to get the show started today, and then I'll get into landlords in the LA wildfires and Canada versus us real estate. The final question today is from Jeter in Roseville, California. I know where Roseville is. It's just northeast of Sacramento, and I'm not sure if Jeter j, e t, e r is your first name or your last name, like former Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter, but only one name came in here. Jeter asks, Keith, I am a true believer in GRE principles. I'm looking to pounce on some property this year and get leverage and other people's money working for me, instead of only getting my money to work for me in my company's 401 k. Let me just interject here. You really get it. You really get it. Jeter, um, continuing on with your question, with mortgage rates around 7% I'd love to know where you think interest rates are headed next, and what is going to make rates move. Thanks, Jeter. Well, I've got to tell you, Jeter, not only do I avoid predicting future interest rates, but I don't know of anyone in the world that can predict interest rates with high reliability, especially over the medium to long term. James Grant, He's based in New York City. He puts out a publication called Grant's Interest Rate Observer that might just give you a better than 5050, shot of where they're headed next. He's a well regarded source. In fact, I saw James Grant speak in person a couple months ago, but I wouldn't put too much credence in any interest rate predictor out there. Now, just 11 days ago, I sent our newsletter subscribers a graphic of just how bad. I mean, really awful that recent interest rate predictions have been. I've never seen a chart like this. This chart looked like a centipede. Okay, the Bold Line was the actual federal funds rate that was like the centipedes body and all the hundreds of legs coming off this line were predictions that others had made, all deviating from the true line, the centipede body, which is what the rate really was. I mean, prominent experts rate predictions have a track record that's more abysmal than everyone saying we'd surely have a man on Mars, by now, terrible. Jeter. When you look at interest rate predictions, you're looking at a waste of your time. They're about as reliable as a weather app in a tornado a year ago, the collective brain trusts of all the economic wizards believed with devotion and alacrity that mortgage rates would be sub six now, instead, they are still about seven, which might correspond to a three or three and a half percent federal funds rate. They all thought the federal funds rate would be near three by now, but it's more like four and a half today. And what's hilarious is that, in more recent years, the Fed even tells us what they plan to do next. They even tell us it's little like having the answers to the test, and yet you still fail the test. You've got the cheat sheet and you still aren't doing any better? How can this possibly be? Well, the reason that I don't make interest rate predictions is because it is a surefire way to look foolish. Jeter, to answer the second part of your question, what moves interest rates around? The answer is, well, it's really broad economic forces and political forces, that is why it's tough, and this includes jobs reports, supply and demand of credit, inflation, a pandemic, a surprise new war in the Middle East, tariffs, GDP reports, surprise election outcomes, a massive change in tax policy and more. I mean, it is total entropy. Now, one thing we know is that persistently higher inflation will soon result in higher rates, just like we saw in 2022 I mean, rates rise in a bullish, robust and optimistic economy. And another thing that we do know is that sustained fear causes rates to fall. That's why, when you look at a chart, you see interest rates of all kinds plunge like a cliff diver during the 2001 dot com recession, the 2008 GFC and the 2020 COVID pandemic. The reason that rates fall during fearful times just like those, is because the economy needs the help and a little pro tip for you here, Jeter, when a recession begins, it's more likely than not that rates will fall. But see, it can be hard to predict a recession, as we've all found out recently, we just came off three fed interest rate cuts late last year, and that was a little weird, because the economy does not need the help that is sort of like offering Gatorade to someone that's not even sweating. Okay, and when rates scrape the ocean bottom floor at zero, from 2009 to 2016 and then again from 2020, to 2022,that's unhealthy. Natural market forces would mean that there's a cost to receive a service like borrowing money. Well, with zero rates, it feels like no one wants to save and everyone wants to borrow and spend. Zero rates, it is time to all out. Ball out. My two time GRE podcast guest here on the show, and super smart guy, Dr Chris Martinson, he thinks that rates are generally going to go higher from here. But you don't have to look far. You can find other wise guys that say they're going lower. At the last Fed meeting last year, they disappointed markets by signaling plans to only cut rates twice this year, instead of the four cuts that were previously expected. And now that's even changed since then, a lot of people question if those two cuts are even going to happen this year, given things like a hot jobs report that came flying in and still too high inflation. So this is kind of like expecting a decadent dessert of rate cuts, and instead you get, like, one Biscoff cookie, like they give you an economy on the plane. So Jeter, that's why I don't forecast rates. I don't think anyone can, but now, at least you have a couple resources, and you also know what factors move rates around.    Now if you want a fun, real time pulse on the market. Check out poly market. You might have heard of it by now. It's a site where you can place bets on various outcomes, a lot of non sports bets. You can see people put their money where their mouth is. You don't have to make a wager yourself. You can just see what people are wagering on. There are wagers on fed interest rate decisions. There at Poly market, you can even place a bet on if Jerome Powell says Good afternoon at his next press conference over there on Poly market, I'm not kidding right now, the odds of him saying Good afternoon at his next press conference are 96% so remember this, the market has always felt confident about where rates are headed, and the market has always been wrong. Interest rates don't drive property values. Their intrinsic worth is based on the timeless stuff, location, amenities, income, occupancy, size, density, business case, exit options and operating costs. Those are the things that drive property values. The bottom line with interest rates is that nobody knows the future interest rates direction is a pinball game of black swans and policy pivots. So instead, focus on the big things that you can control, like how many dollars you have, leveraging properties and keeping your operations on those properties efficient. So Jeter waiting to buy property generally harms an investor more than it helps them, because it's dollars on the sidelines that are paying the opportunity cost of not leveraging other people's money. Of course, if you buy your property at whatever interest rate today, and rates soon fall like a knife, well, then you can refinance at the lower rate, all while leverage keeps compounding and building your wealth. Thanks for the question,  Jeter.    If you have a listener question or comment or feedback of any type for us, as always, you can visit us at get rich education.com/contactfor either written or voice communication there, like I said earlier, that amazingly interesting centipede like chart of just how dreadful interest rate predictions have really been that was in our recent newsletter. Now it's too late for you to get that issue, but to get more like them, you can get our don't Quit your Daydream. Newsletter, completely free, just text GRE to 66866 that's text GRE to 66866.   now, when it comes to this month's historically bad, devastating LA area wildfires, I heard from a friend in that area last week. She lives just south of LA and her house was spared, fortunately, but she's been busy helping friends in the LA area who have lost their homes and businesses. It is truly tragic. And you know, what she told me, is the biggest, most compelling need right now, and I put some credence in this, since it's an independent on the ground report. This is outside of major media, displaced residents. Number one need is not food, it's not water, it's not clothing, it's not heat, it's not even community with 1000s of families without homes, the urgent need is for housing. You might not find that surprising. That's what she shared with me. I mean, it is a need so dire that even a family of six would consider a small mobile home or an RV rental to help with temporary housing. And a lot of these displaced families were you know, you got to consider the fact that before the fire, they were living in above average homes, even luxury homes. Now, as far as LA area, landlords that have housing to rent out, a lot of those landlords have jacked up the rent price. California's anti price gouging. Laws make it illegal for landlords to raise rent by more than 10% in the first month to six months after a disaster is declared. Now the BBC reported that one resident who lost their home in the historic California wildfires found a rental property that was previously priced at $13,000 per month, they offered $20,000 per month, and the landlord countered with 23k that is a 75% price hike. And it's not the only example. A Bel Air home located in an evacuation warning zone was listed on Zillow recently at 29,500bucks a month. That is an 86% hike from its September of last year price. That's according to the outlet called La est, another realtor raised in Encino, California, listing from 9k per month at the beginning of this month to 11 and a half K after the fires started. That's according to the LA Times. The realtor then backpedaled to abide by the 10% rule, which she said that she did not know about. And for a little context there, yes, those rent prices sound high, and La rent was already high. It averaged $2,820 a month. That's compared to $1,983a month nationally. Those figures are per Zillow. Now I don't know what percentage of La landlords are engaging in. I guess what I'll call extortionate behavior, but even if it's the vast minority of landlords you know that gives them a bad name, to have the word landlord in headlines like this. And is this behavior extortionate? In some cases, it probably is, I suspect, just a guess here that some landlords might think they have a chance of insurance paying some or all of the higher rent for their tenant that was displaced from their original home. But let's keep things in perspective here. What this does to good landlords reputations. You know, that's not the story here. The story and the effort should be in helping the displaced people. And of course, there are so many angles to the devastating la wildfires. One of them is that many believe zoning laws pushed homes out into fire prone areas. I recently shared that reason.com article with you in our free newsletter. So again, to get our Don't quit your Daydream newsletter, completely free, which I write every word of myself. Text GRE to 6866 you can do it now, while it's on your mind, hit pause and text GRE to 66866 the abject lunacy in Canada's real estate market, in what US residents and others can learn from all this, that's next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.   Hey, you. Can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com That's ridgelendinggroup.com.   Oh geez, the national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings, so your bank is getting rich off of you. You've got to earn way more, or else you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to a 10% return and compounds year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And you know how I know, because I'm an investor in this myself, earn 10% like me and GRE listeners are text family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866   Naresh Vissa  26:41   this is GRE real estate investment coach. Naresh Vissa don't live below your means, grow your needs. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold.   Keith Weinhold  26:57   Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, let's discuss the Canadian economy and Canadian real estate. Because even if you live in the US or Central America or Europe or one of the other 187 nations that were heard in outside the US, you know there are lessons here for you, and there are lessons here for me as well. There is some just jaw dropping material that I'm about to share with you, and I won't discuss the politics of it, because that's not GRE 's lane. Instead, it is the policy. Earlier this month, Canada's equivalent of the President, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that he will be resigning soon. And Trudeau has been under a lot of criticism. At last check, his approval rating was a miserable 22% now, most people think that the next and future Prime Minister of Canada will be a man named Pierre Poilievre. In fact, the wagering site poly market has polyev with an over 80% chance of being Canada's next prime minister, and you will hear him speak shortly here. And yes, that is how an Anglophone pronounces his last name, polyev In a recent interview with Dr Jordan Peterson. You'll listen into here shortly. Polyev, Canada's likely next leader here, first, he describes some of the problems with Canada's economy, and then he'll get into their real estate market. Right now, the median home price in the United States is about 450k you might think that Canada's should be lower, because Canada has more land in the US and Canada has just about 1/9 of the US population. So a low population density. I mean, the US is population density is more than 10 times Canada's. But no, due to some of these policies, it's just the opposite, because Canada's average home is over 725k. yeah, that's just for a basic home. I've got to admit, I did not know who polyev was until just a couple months ago. I'm starting to like him the more that I listen to him. He's a clear thinker and a clear speaker. Here is a clip of Canada's likely next leader talking about Canada's problems. This is 10 and a half minutes long. I'm going to listen to this again with you right now, and then I will come back along with you to comment. This is why you can't buy a house in Trudeau, Canada.    Unknown Speaker  29:41   Our productivity is another major problem right now, and that's productivity. Sounds complicated. It's actually extremely simple. You just take the GDP and you divide it by the hours worked in the country. So American GDP is $80 so for every hour an American worker works, on average. He or she produces $80 of GDP in Canada, it 50. So that's every hour. So that means we have to work 60% more just to make the same amount and have the same level of income to buy food and housing. And so that's the Now that sounds like a bunch of wonk speak that should might seem like it only matters to someone staring at a spreadsheet or a graph or a chart, but in fact, that's reflected in the fact that our 2 million people are lined up at food banks because they can't afford food, and 80% of youth can't afford homes, and our quality of life is and the things we can afford to provide our kids have fallen back so much there's a real, real life, Stark and easily comprehensible statistic. And if you work and you produce $80 worth of goods and services in an hour, yeah, compared to working and producing 50, obviously, that's a substantial shortfall. Yeah. So, and is that, is there a starker indicator of the economic disparity between the US and Canada than that? Or do you think that's the primary statistic? I mean, I think housing costs are another one. I mean, right. There was a study out just 10 days ago that has Toronto and Vancouver now by far the most unaffordable housing markets in North America. And so you know, housing costs are 50% higher in Toronto than they are in Chicago, even though Chicago workers make 50% more money. The same is true between Vancouver and Seattle. Seattle workers make way more than Vancouver workers, but housing is 60 or 70% more expensive in Vancouver. So on, all the measures by a lot. Yes, a lot by a lot. Yeah, and we're and we're paying more, more by a lot, right? And most of that's transpired the last 10 years. Yes, and we're paying the difference by accumulating enormous quantities of debt. Our households are by far the most indebted in the g7. when you take you divide total household debt by GDP, we now have a bigger stock of household debt than our entire economy. We are more indebted as households than the Americans were right before the oh eight financial crisis. And so what we have as a model in Canada is we have artificial scarcity imposed by very heavy and restrictive state, confiscatory state, so that suppresses production. But in order to allow for consumption, we print money and borrow money and then flood the economy with that money. Okay, so that's another problem. So that's the inflationary problem. Yes. Now the problem with inflation just many problems with inflation, but one of them is that it particularly punishes people who are thrifty and who save? Yes, right, right? So inflation punishes the people who forego gratification to invest in the future. That's right, right? So that's a very bad idea. It's our inflation is the single most immoral tax for so many reasons. One, it takes from savers and people who are trying to be responsible, thus making it impossible to be responsible, because you will, if you, if you refuse to play the inflation game of borrowing money to buy things you can't afford, someone else inevitably will, and you won't be able to afford anything. So you ultimately have to actor responsibly. It's like Milton Friedman was asked, What would you do with your money in times of inflation? He said, spend it right like the first thing you want to do when inflation is out of control is to make sure you get rid of this thing that's losing its value. The second reason it's immoral is it takes from the poor, because the poorest people cannot put they do not have the ability to buy inflation proof assets like gold and real estate and fancy watches and art collections and wine fancy wines and things that go up with or even exceed inflation. So it's a very big wealth transfer from the have to the from the from the poor and the working class to the very, very wealthy, a very small group of people actually get richer. So the socialist policies that provide goods and services to Canadians, let's say, or denizens of other countries by printing money, actually punish the poor brutally. Oh, absolutely, and consequence of the inflation that they generate. Yes, I mean all the socialist policies in practice take redistribute from the working class to the super wealthy in practice, and I can prove that again and again and again in practice, yeah, in practice. In practice they with the all the redistribution that happens in the so called socialist countries ultimately goes from the working class to the super wealthy. That is the reality. Okay, so, but just one last thing on inflation. The final reason why it's so immoral is nobody votes on it. The basic principle of our parliamentary system is the government can't tax what parliament has not voted the people must no taxation without representation, right? But no one ever votes to have the money printing happen. And so the inflation is adopted secretly, and you blame the grocer because groceries are more expensive, or your local gas station because gas is more or your realtor because house, in fact, it was actually the government that bid up all of those things with money printing, and you didn't even know about it. So it is silent. It's a silent thief that takes from the poor and gives to the richest people and destroys the working class. And that's why I am I want to crush inflation. We need a policy that seeks to just to stop inflation at all, at all costs. Okay, so what would you do to to stop inflation? Well, we stopped the money printing. You know, we need a we need. And the money printing is just a means to fund deficit spending. Governments borrow to define the deficit, yeah, for people. So basically, the deficit is the difference between what the government spends and what it brings in. It's usually calculated on a yearly basis, that's right, yeah, and the debt, but the debt is just the accumulation of the deficits, right? So the deficit right now is $62 billion and I thought it had a ceiling of 41 billion. Yeah, right. Isn't that a ceiling? Yes, not a I guess not. And look, there are very real present day consequences for that. Deficits increase the money supply. Central banks effectively facilitate that increase in the money supply, and that causes inflation. And, you know, it's, it's why our, you know, I have a buddy who's whose family moved here from Italy back in 1973 His father worked paving roads and his mother made sandwiches in a senior's home, they were able to pay off their home 10 minutes from Parliament Hill in seven years. Right, their grandchildren wouldn't be able to save up a down payment for that home in 15 years, and they will be university educated with all the advantages of having been here two decades. That is the consequence of the money supply growing vastly quicker than the stuff that money buys. So we have to do is stop growing the money supply and start growing the stuff money buys. Right? Produce more energy, grow more food, build more homes. We have to unleash the free enterprise system to produce more stuff of value, and this is where we have to remove the artificial scarcity that the government is imposing on the population. Let's incentivize our municipalities to grant the fastest building permits in the world to build homes. You have a plan for that in principle, yes, I mean, I'm going to say to the municipal governments, they either, they either speed up permits, cut Development Charges and free up land, or they will lose their federal infrastructure money, so they will have a powerful carrot and stick incentive to speed up home building and the percentage of a new house price. That's a consequence of government, taxation and regulation. Well, in Vancouver, it's 60% 66 does that include the land and the house? Yes, that includes everything. So I'll tell you how they calculate it, CD, how took the cost of building a compare the cost of building a home to the cost of buying a home, yeah. And he said, what's the gap between those two things? So they added up land, labor, profit for the developer, materials, and they compared that to the sale price, and they found the gap was $1.2 million so that's $1.2 million of extra cost, above and beyond the materials, the labor, the land and the profit for the developer. So where's that going? Well? The answer is, development charges,sales taxes, land transfer taxes, the delays in getting the permit. Time is money, the consultants, lawyers, accountants, lobbyists that the developer has to hire in order to get the approval that so in other words, we're spending twice in Vancouver. We spend twice as much on bureaucrats than we do on all other things combined. To build a home, more money goes to bureaucrats than goes to the carpenters, electricians and plumbers who build the place. And to add insult to injury, those trades people who build homes can't afford to live in them, right? I mean, it is. So what we need to do is slash the bureaucracy. And I'm going to I'm going to say to the mayors, you're not getting federal infrastructure money until you slash your development charges, speed up your permits. I'm going to take. The Federal GST off new homes under a certain limit, and encourage the provinces to do the same. But we've got so much land. We should have the most affordable housing in the world. We have. It should be dirt cheap because we have the most dirt we just need to get the government out of the way.    Keith Weinhold  40:20   Yeah, again, that was Dr Jordan Peterson interviewing Canada's likely next leader, Pierre poilievre, just a few weeks ago now. Polyev, when discussing inflation and investing, you know, he also brought up points that I've surfaced here on the show over the past few years. He even articulates a few things the way I've described them. It's almost weird, like inflation means that it actually makes sense to strategically borrow and spend and not to save. It's almost like polyev is a GRE listener. I love how he said, stop growing the money supply and start growing the things that money buys. We're talking about things like homes and energy and food. That was eloquent. I mean, in Vancouver, the percentage of a new house cost for taxation and regulation is 60% of the cost of the home, fully 60 and then, if that's not surprising enough, due to all these layers of regulation, the cost of building a new home is $1.2 million more than the cost of buying an existing home. Just astounding. This might have even left you either flabbergasted or gobsmacked, which one?So some parallels to the US there in Canada, but back here in the US, the housing market is clearly more affordable and healthier. Polyev really pointed out a direction that the US does not want to fall into. In fact, we've got a pretty good Canadian listening contingent. So let me ask, Do you have a connection to Pierre poilievre, if you do, we would probably like to invite him here on to the show with us. If you do, or you even know someone that knows someone, let us know right into get rich education.com/contact or email us directly at info@get rich education.com and we'll make that happen now. What is happening at GRE marketplace right now is that our listeners are getting brand new build investment property in Florida and some other places at competitive prices and a fixed interest rate of just four and three quarters percent. So yes, that is sub Canadian prices, by far below Canadian prices, and a four and three quarter percent rate. And then on top of that, you get to pay an affordable insurance premium in Florida because it's new build, or similarly, it's that way in other states if you buy new build, but builders overbuilt in some pockets of Florida, like I've mentioned to you before. So at this time, on top of all that, they're offering a free full year of property management. And because when you own a new build property, it's not occupied with tenants on day one, and this means that you don't inherit unknown tenants. And builders are also offering you up to three months in a rent guarantee in case your single family home or duplex or four Plex is not occupied yet, the builder would pay the rent for you. Really amazing incentives, but probably none better than that four and three quarter percent mortgage rate. I mean, it's like you get to roll the clock back to when rates were artificially low, back in 2021, and 2022, and lock it in. Now, our GRE investment coaches connect you with the investment property that's right for you based on your needs and your goals, including those four and three quarter percent rates, if you so choose, it is all free at GRE marketplace. From GRE marketplace.com just click on the coaching area and you can book a time right there until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.    Unknown Speaker  44:23   nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively   Unknown Speaker  44:51   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building get rich education.com you.  

In episode 185 of the Payne Points of Wealth, we sit down with James “Jim” Grant, the esteemed American writer and publisher behind Grant's Interest Rate Observer. Since 1983, Jim has been providing keen insights into the financial markets through his twice-monthly journal. With several books on finance and history to his name, Jim brings a wealth of knowledge to our discussion.   Join us as we delve into the potential bubbles and euphoria in today's market, explore the rich history of financial markets, and discuss the past and future of interest rates. Discover how these factors might impact your portfolio and gain valuable perspectives from one of the industry's most respected voices.

Stocks pared losses into the close, but the Nasdaq was lower for the second-straight day as the slide in chips continued. C3 AI CEO Tom Siebel discusses the latest quarter in first comments before the analyst call while ZScaler CEO Jay Chaudhry breaks down the weak billings guidance that scared investors. Palo Alto Networks CEO Nikesh Arora on closing its IBM deal and the impact of Crowdstrike. Plus, Grant's Interest Rate Observer founder Jim Grant on what's next for inflation and the Fed. 

In Episode 373 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Jim Grant, the founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, about the "America First" economic agenda and how investors should think about changes to U.S. economic policy when forecasting interest rates, growth, and inflation. Jim Grant compares contemporary American politics to other periods in U.S. history, including electoral comparisons to the 2024 U.S. elections, and describes why the risks associated with two open-ended wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East and a third potential conflict in the Pacific are not being prudently considered by policymakers and market participants alike. Demetri and Jim also devote considerable time to analyzing Trump's “America First” economic agenda, including his spending proposals, tariffs, tax cuts, and import duties, as well as what an America First energy policy would look like under a Trump administration if he were to retake the White House in 2025. Subscribe to our premium content to access this episode, along with our entire content library at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. This will give you access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 07/24/2024

Between February 2022 and August 2023, in order to combat hot inflation, the Federal Reserve rocketed its discount rate from near 0% to 5.25% -- the most aggressive interest rate schedule in living memory. Since then, the Fed has kept the rate at 5.25% -- the 'higher for longer' era But despite this, even when paired with Quantitative Tightening, economic growth remains robust, inflation is lower but is proving sticky, unemployment remains under 4%, and the stock market is at all time highs. In short, the Fed's aggressively restrictive policies haven't cooled things down much. They've been so ineffective that even the Wall Street Journal is asking "Do interest rates really matter anymore?" To find out, we have the great fortune of speaking today with perhaps the world's foremost living expert on interest rates, James Grant, founder and editor of the highly-respected market journal Grant's Interest Rate Observer. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #interestrates #inflation #recession

The meteoric rise of private credit over the last decade has raised concerns among banks about unfair competition and among regulators about risks to financial stability. Historically, regulated banks have provided most of the credit that finances businesses in the United States. However, since the 2008 financial crisis, banks have restricted their credit lines in response to new regulations. In their place has arisen private credit, which comprises direct (and mostly unregulated) lending, primarily from institutional investors. Estimates peg the current size of outstanding private credit loans in the U.S. at $1.7 trillion.Private credit loans aren't traceable, and there are incentives to lend to riskier borrowers in the absence of regulation. This could lead to catastrophic spillover effects in the event of a financial shock. This week, Bethany and Luigi sit down with Jim Grant, a longtime market and banking industry analyst, writer, and publisher of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, a twice-monthly journal of financial markets published since 1983. Together, they try to answer if private credit is in the public interest.

Industry legend, Jim Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, joins Mike and Harley to discuss the soft landing, the Fed pivot, and other stories you might have been tempted to believe! For more information, visit ⁠⁠http://www.simplify.us⁠⁠. Simplify Asset Management Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Simplify Asset Management Inc. and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission, nor does it indicate that the advisor has attained a particular level of skill or ability. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy. This content is not intended to provide investment, tax, or legal advice. This content is solely for informational purposes and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. These materials are made available on an “as is” basis, without representation or warranty. The information contained in these materials has been obtained from sources that Simplify Asset Management Inc. believes to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. This information is only current as of the date indicated and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Neither the author nor Simplify Asset Management Inc. undertakes to advise you of any changes in the views expressed herein.

Uncertainty over the direction of inflation and monetary policy is buffeting markets. In this Exchange podcast Jim Grant, founder of ‘Grant's Interest Rate Observer', discusses his gloomy outlook for US bonds and sounds a warning about the risks of shadow banking. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt-out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Part 2 of 2 Financial thought leader and historian James Grant is marking the 40th anniversary of his influential Grant's Interest Rate Observer, a twice-monthly, self-described “independent, value-oriented and contrary-minded journal of the financial markets.” Grant shares his insights on a wide range of financial topics, including booms and busts, corporate finance, inflation, and the evolution of central banking. Grant also discusses his prescient analyses of the 2007-2009 credit crisis and offers warnings about the perils of cryptocurrencies and low-interest rates. He also unveils the one trait shared by successful investors, providing valuable insights for navigating the ever-changing financial landscape. WEALTHTRACK episode 2021 was originally broadcast on November 17, 2023, More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/financial-thought-leader-james-grant-shares-four-decades-of-investment-wisdom-and-insights/ Grant's Interest Rate Observer: https://www.grantspub.com/ Bookshelf: The Forgotten Depression: 1921: The Crash That Cured Itself https://amzn.to/3QTCsh9 Money of the Mind: How the 1980s Got That Way https://amzn.to/47tIeev The Trouble With Prosperity: The Loss of Fear, the Rise of Speculation, and the Risk to American Savings https://amzn.to/3ugSwjR Bagehot: The Life and Times of the Greatest Victorian https://amzn.to/47cX49S Inside the Yield Book: The Classic That Created the Science of Bond Analysis https://amzn.to/47lO3KY A History of Interest Rates, Fourth Edition https://amzn.to/3FR38J1 --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/wealthtrack/support

James Grant, Founder and Editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, joins us to discuss the history of bond market cycles and why the dramatic rise in interest rates that began in March of last year might have ushered in a prolonged bear market in bonds. Grant argues that bond yields have trended in generation-length periods, with each cycle lasting at least 20 years. He believes that the bull market in bonds that began in the early 1980s has now come to an end, and that we are now embarking on a long-term period of rising interest rates. Grant's perspective is important because he has been warning of a bond bear market for many years. He has argued that the central banks' aggressive monetary stimulus policies have created a bubble in the bond market and that this bubble is now bursting. WEALTHTRACK episode 2020 originally broadcast on November 10, 2023 More info:https://wealthtrack.com/financial-thought-leader-james-grant-on-the-investment-ramifications-of-the-new-era-of-higher-interest-rates/ Bookshelf: The Forgotten Depression: 1921: The Crash That Cured Itself https://amzn.to/3QTCsh9 Money of the Mind: How the 1980s Got That Way https://amzn.to/47tIeev The Trouble With Prosperity: The Loss of Fear, the Rise of Speculation, and the Risk to American Savings https://amzn.to/3ugSwjR Bagehot: The Life and Times of the Greatest Victorian https://amzn.to/47cX49S Inside the Yield Book: The Classic That Created the Science of Bond Analysis https://amzn.to/47lO3KY A History of Interest Rates, Fourth Edition https://amzn.to/3FR38J1 --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/wealthtrack/support

How many bears does it take to change a lightbulb? None, it will never happen. Join us today as we debrief reporter Jenn Hughes, recently back from a conference hosted by the biggest bear of them all, Jim Grant, longtime editor-in-chief of Grant's Interest Rate Observer. The cautious conferees had one thing on their minds: the explosion in government debt. One solution: yield curve control. Also, we go long cats, and short chewing tape. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedofferFollow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jason discusses the state of the housing market from a scenic location in Medellin, Colombia. He highlights the remarkably low mortgage delinquency rates, the lowest since 1979, debunking predictions of market collapse. He contrasts today's median mortgage payments, even with rising interest rates, to those in 2011-2013 when prices were significantly lower. Hartman dismisses concerns about unemployment impacting the housing market, arguing that unemployment benefits can comfortably cover these low mortgage payments. And in part 2 of Dean Rogers' interview, Jason discusses the current state of the real estate market, focusing on the reasons why a housing crash is unlikely. He emphasizes that the market is not currently in a bubble, attributing this to factors such as solid lending practices, high-quality borrowers, low inventory levels, and strong demand for housing. He also points out that the shortage of entry-level homes, combined with the lack of distressed sellers and the equity that homeowners hold, makes a crash less probable. Furthermore, he discusses the multi-dimensional returns of income properties and predicts that mortgage rates may settle around 5% in the future. Overall, he suggests that the real estate market is stable and poised for continued appreciation.   Key Takeaways: Jason's editorial 1:27 Welcome from Medellin, Colombia 1:58 Lowest mortgage delinquency rates since 1979 3:41 Chart: Median monthly mortgage payment | Median home sale price 6:37 The wild card Dean Rogers interviews Jason Part 2 8:18 Rents for Single Family Homes are going up a lot more 9:02 There is no such thing as a "national housing market" 9:38 10 to 12 year cycle market crash 11:32 Chart: Percent of closed-end, first lien mortgages outstanding by interest rate 12:42 Chart: Percent of closed-end, first lien mortgages byd current loan to value 14:46 Chart: mortgage originations by credit score 15:45 US population growth 1990-2020 & the most important charts 16:07 Inflation adjusted house prices 3.6% below peak 16:26 Single Family housing units completed 17:38 PropertyTracker.com 19:32 There is very low inventory 20:01 Interest rates  26:01 The property has to make sense from the day you buy it   Mentioned: Debt: The First 5000 Years by David Graeber Grant's Interest Rate Observer https://www.grantspub.com/   Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com  

My guests are: Daniel Pecaut - Chairman | Chief Investment Officer | Author & Corey Wrenn - President | CEO | Author Chairman and President of Pecaut & Company. If you are a Berkshire and Buffett fan, this episode is for you. We'll go on a trip back in time to the early days of Buffett's Berkshire. Both my guests have been going to Berkshire's Annual Meetings since the 1980s, and one of my guests actually worked for Buffett, and was checking tickets, and letting attendees in at the annual meetings. They have some incredible stories to share. Daniel Pecaut is a Harvard graduate whose insights have been featured in the New York Times, Money Magazine, Grant's Interest Rate Observer, Outstanding Investor Digest, and the Omaha-World Herald. He has worked in investing for 30+ years and is Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of a successful investment firm, Pecaut & Company. For 9 years (1983-1992), Corey Wrenn was an internal auditor at Berkshire Hathaway. Wrenn is now the President and CEO of the investment firm, Pecaut & Company. Wrenn received his M.B.A from University of Nebraska at Omaha. Today – we talked about everything from Dan's grandfather's tales of the 1920s bull market, and the 1929 market crash, Corey's years at Berkshire to lessons from almost 4 decades of Berkshire's annual meetings, and more. 1. Dan shared his family history with stock market investing, while Corey discussed his involvement with Berkshire Hathaway. 2. My guests shared their memories of early Berkshire meetings and described what it was like to be a part of them. 3. We delved into the peculiar nature of an insurance company. 5. The history of Buffett's thoughts on inflation was discussed, considering its implications as a looming threat over the years. 6. Buffett and Munger's perspectives on making predictions. 7. The guests mentioned the valuable advice Buffett has for those starting out in life and investing, particularly addressing younger members of the audience at the annual meeting. 8. The guests discussed Buffett's stance on taxes, noting his commitment to paying what he owes while utilizing available tax benefits for Berkshire, such as deferred taxation and strategic sales triggering immediate tax consequences. 9. The guests highlighted the ethical standards upheld by Buffett, Munger, and Berkshire, which go beyond legal requirements and regulations, emphasizing their commitment to ethical behavior. 10. We concluded the conversation by discussing how my guests define success in their own lives, providing personal insights on the topic. https://www.danielpecaut.com/university-of-berkshire-hathaway/ ---- ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Crisis Investing: 100 Essays⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - My new book. To get regular updates and bonus content, please sign-up for my substack: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bogumilbaranowski.substack.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow me on Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/bogumil_nyc⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Learn more about ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Bogumil Baranowski⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Learn more about ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sicart Associates, LLC⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. NEVER INVESTMENT ADVICE. IMPORTANT: As a reminder, the remarks in this interview represent the views, opinions, and experiences of the participants and are based upon information they believe to be reliable; however, Sicart Associates nor I have independently verified all such remarks. The content of this podcast is for general, informational purposes, and so are the opinions of members of Sicart Associates, a registered investment adviser, and guests of the show. This podcast does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security or financial instruments or provide investment advice or service. Past performance is not indicative of future results. More information on Sicart Associates is available via its Form ADV disclosure documents available ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠adviserinfo.sec.gov⁠⁠ --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/talking-billions/message

If you think interest rates seem high right now, you might be operating with too short of a perspective. For a longer-term perspective, you'd want to talk to someone like Jim Grant. On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, the founder and editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer and a long-time financial commentator talks to us about why we're at the beginning of a longer-term trend of higher rates that could last decades. He argues that investors will struggle to shake off years of "buy the dip" behavior, a ZIRP mentality, and a misplaced faith in the Federal Reserve. We also discuss what it means for market behavior today.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

James Grant (@grantspub), founder and editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, a leading journal on financial markets since 1983, joins Julia La Roche on episode 55. Jim Grant is also the author of multiple financial history and biography books. His journalism has been featured in Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, and Foreign Affairs. He has appeared on 60 Minutes, Jim Lehrer's News Hour, and CBS Evening News. In this episode, Jim and Julia covered the monetary realm, the U.S. dollar, the U.S. indebtedness, gold, the Federal Reserve, inflation, bonds, and more. According to Jim, the theme in the short run is disinflation, but inflation is for the long term. "We've boiled this down to a couple of headlines: We think that inflation is for the long term. We think that this is inherently inflationary setup we have with runaway public borrowing and with an unchecked and undisciplined engine of credit creation —the Fed — so inflation for the long run. But for the short term, we think it's things rather disinflationary, meaning the rate of rise and inflation is going to subside. And conditions will tighten for the financial markets,” Jim tells Julia, adding that, "Inflation is never transitory, at least not in the modern era, because prices never come down again, when they go up, they stay up." 0:00 Intro 0:38 How we got here 1:30 Monetary realm as an area of concern 2:29 Defining the dollar 2:57 Biggest change in sweep of financial history 4:30 Gold standard 5:50 Defining the dollar? How has it evolved 6:50 Weaknesses of the dollar 9:47 Lockdowns wouldn't have been feasible 10:30 Origins of the great bulge in public debt 13:55 Fed actions during pandemic 16:43 Excesses in our financial and fiscal lives haven't been fully felt yet 17:37 Rate of growth in debt far outstripping means to service it 20:30 Fed is going to carry us all into the poorhouse 22:00 Worrying about the debt 26:59 Outlook on the U.S. dollar 28:30 A poisoned chalice 30:00 Better if we lost the world reserve currency franchise 32:57 Gold 36:06 Central bank gold buying 38:20 Higher for longer? 41:00 Why the Fed might retreat? 45:00 Inverted yield curve 49:00 Does the yield curve predict a recession? 51:30 Bond market and interest conundrum 58:00 The Forgotten Depression 1:01:00 Setting up Grant's Interest Rate Observer

In the wake of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, central banks drove interest rates down to unprecedented lows and kept them there for the better part of a decade. The world economy then became addicted, some would say dependent, upon a zero-cost capital world. But now inflation is forcing interest rates to rise sharply around the globe, at the fastest pace on record. This sea change in rates is depressing economic growth, shocking the financial system, and resulting in one of the worst years in history for stocks and bonds. To find out where things are likely headed from here, we sit down with the world's top expert on interest rates, James Grant, esteemed publisher of Grant's Interest Rate Observer. https://youtu.be/7aNsPpN1dt4

How times have changed. It wasn't many months ago that the entire financial world was singing the praises of inflation. The greatest fear among Wall Streeters and other financial lights was lower prices that might actually decline more and turn into that monster known as deflation. The thought conjured up nightmarish scenes of bread lines and bank runs. Ever since the global financial crisis of 2008 and especially since the Covid pandemic, central banks and governments around the world have pulled out all stops to prevent such an occurrence. And guess what? It finally worked. After declining since the early 1980s, inflation has roared back to life, recently hitting 40-year highs. But no one is celebrating. In fact, now central banks around the world have declared war on inflation, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is leading the charge. The Fed has dramatically raised the federal funds rate several times this year, with more action to come. This week's guest has long been an avowed enemy of inflation and an outspoken critic of the Fed's inflation-boosting policies. How is he feeling now? He is financial thought leader James Grant, the Founder, and Editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer. Grant is also the author of 9 books. Several are financial histories, including the prize-winning The Forgotten Depression: 1921: The Crash That Cured Itself. Grant will discuss the Fed's about-face on inflation, the battle it faces to bring it under control, the implications for financial markets, and two investment ideas for this new investment era. WEALTHTRACK #1912 broadcast on September 16, 2022 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/inflations-damage-financial-consequences-investment-strategies-with-historian-james-grant/ In his WealthTrack interview and a recent issue of Grant's Interest Rate Observer Jim Grant highlighted the small-cap equity fund Palm Valley Capital Fund (PVCMX) which holds mainly cash “awaiting the return of valuations at which an unbending, unconventional, uncompromising, value-seeking investor can put other people's money to work”. Grant also recommended reading the firm's quarterly letters to shareholders, “some of the best and wittiest financial-markets commentary on the web.” Here is a link to the firm's most recent missive. https://www.palmvalleycapital.com/fundletter Bookshelf: The Trouble With Prosperity: The Loss of Fear, the Rise of Speculation, and the Risk to American Savings: https://amzn.to/3ds0azQ Money of the Mind: Borrowing and Lending in America from the Civil War to Michael Milken: https://amzn.to/3qGuSIK The Forgotten Depression: 1921: The Crash that Cured Itself: https://amzn.to/3RQixO9 --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/wealthtrack/support

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU'LL LEARN:18:35 - How the Great Inflation of 1965-81 shaped Jim Grant's views on our current predicament.25:31 - How history shows us that human behavior around money has never really changed. 30:50 - Why it's futile to forecast interest rates, but wise to know what's happened in the past.42:53 - How the Federal Reserve sparked rampant inflation, why it's scary, & how to deal with it.55:16 - How central bankers illustrate the perils of overconfidence & the need for humility.1:03:20 - How the Fed could wreck the U.S. economy while attempting to tame inflation. 1:07:01 - What investment opportunities Jim sees in this high-risk economic environment.1:10:43 - Why he's bearish on bonds as a 40-year cycle of falling interest rates comes to an end.1:19:40 - Why Jim likes gold, not Bitcoin, as a protection against financial chaos & monetary folly.1:35:07 - Why he adamantly refuses to invest in China.1:28:47 - What Jim thinks of great investors like Seth Klarman, Paul Tudor Jones, & Bill Miller.1:36:14 - How to handle the emotional challenge of investing when the stock market is tumbling.1:40:57 - What we can learn from Bernard Baruch, one of the best investors of the 20th century.1:44:22 - What you can learn from a classic investment book about the secret of “dying rich.”1:53:10 - What Jim regards as “the most precious commodity” in life.*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.BOOKS AND RESOURCESJim Grant's website for Grant's Interest Rate Observer.Subscribe to Almost Daily Grant's, a free (almost) daily commentary on financial markets.Grant's Current Yield Podcast, which is co-hosted by Jim & his colleague Evan Lorenz.Jim's annual investment conference in New York City.Jim's book Bernard M. Baruch: The Adventures of a Wall Street Legend.Jim's book Bagehot: The Life and Times of the Greatest Victorian.Jim's investment recommendation, Palm Valley Capital Value Fund.William Green interviews Bill Miller about Bitcoin on the “Richer, Wiser, Happier” podcast.William Green's book, “Richer, Wiser, Happier” – read the reviews of this book.William Green's Twitter.NEW TO THE SHOW?Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs.Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool.Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.P.S The Investor's Podcast Network is excited to launch a subreddit devoted to our fans in discussing financial markets, stock picks, questions for our hosts, and much more! Join our subreddit r/TheInvestorsPodcast today!SPONSORSHelp empower girls to break free through education, healthcare, child protection, and other wonderful benefits by being a World Vision child sponsor today.Make summer dinners stress-free with Freshly. Get $125 off your first five orders today!Take the next step in your working life or get ready for a change, by being a Snooze franchise partner.Enjoy 50% off Remote's full suite of global employment solutions for your first employee for three months when you use promo code WSB.Invest in high-quality, cash-flowing real estate without all of the hassle with Passive Investing.Confidently take control of your online world without worrying about viruses, phishing attacks, ransomware, hacking attempts, and other cybercrimes with Avast One.Send, spend, and receive money around the world easily with Wise.Book your next simple tour or extreme adventure through Viator, the world's leading travel experience marketplace. Use code VIATOR10 for 10% off your first booking.Get up to 3% Daily Cashback on everything you buy with Apple Card. Apply now in the Wallet app on iPhone and start using it right away. Subject to credit approval. Daily cash is available via an Apple Cash card or as a statement credit. See Apple Card customer agreement for terms and conditions. Apple Cash card is issued by Green Dot Bank, Member FDIC. Variable APRs range from 13.24% to 24.24% based on creditworthiness. Rates as of August 1, 2022.Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors.HELP US OUT!Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Our guest this week is Jim Grant. Jim is the founder and editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, a twice-monthly newsletter on financial markets with a focus on bonds. He is the author of numerous books and has made frequent appearances in the financial press where his views on markets and the macroeconomy are much sought after. Before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer, Jim did stints as a journalist, first as a reporter at The Baltimore Sun, and later at Barron's. He received his bachelor's degree from Indiana University and his master's in international relations from Columbia University.Background BioGrant's Interest Rate ObserverThe Forgotten Depression: 1921: The Crash That Cured ItselfMr. Market Miscalculates: The Bubble Years and BeyondMoney of the MindBagehot: The Life and Times of the Greatest VictorianInflation and Interest Rates“Jim Grant: The Fed Cannot Control Inflation,” by Robert Huebscher, advisorperspectives.com, May 4, 2021.“Jim Grant: The Trouble With Treasuries,” by James Grant, barrons.com, Oct. 11, 2019.“The High Cost of Low Interest Rates,” by James Grant, wsj.com, April 1, 2020.“Happy Birthday, Federal Reserve! Have Some Punch (Before the Bowl Gets Taken Away),” by Paul Vigna, wsj.com, Dec. 23, 2013.“The Inflation Headshake,” by Eric Cinnamond, palmvalleycapital.com, March 9, 2022.Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETFMurray Stahl bio“Jim Grant: The Endgame for the Bull Market in Bonds,” by James Grant, barrons.com, Sept. 13, 2019.“Jim Grant: Low Interest Rates Forever? Don't Get Used to That Idea,” by James Grant, barrons.com, June 7, 2019.“James Grant: Bitcoin and Other Bubbles,” Wealthtrack podcast, youtube.com, Feb. 26, 2021.Policymaking“Jim Grant: The Big Flaw in Ph.D-conomics,” by James Grant, barrons.com, July 19, 2019.What Is the Taylor Rule?A History of Interest Rates, by Sidney HomerRecession and Macroeconomic Forecast“The Difficult Art of Conjuring Up Yield From Mortgage-Backed Securities,” by James Grant, barrons.com, March 15, 2019.“The Fed Is Well Behind the Curve: Jim Grant,” cnbc.com interview, youtube.com, Feb. 25, 2022.

In Episode 221 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Jim Grant, the founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer: a legend in the business of investor education and financial media. What separates Jim from millions of his fellow financial journalists, commentators, and authors is the historical perspective that he brings, informed not just by the immense volume of books and periodicals that he's consumed over the course of his lifetime, but primarily by the wisdom of his own lived experiences and lessons learned from the experiences of others that he's had the privilege to know and interview over the course his life. Given the ongoing controversy around inflation—its causes and consequences—we couldn't think of anyone better to talk to than Jim Grant. Jim has been warning his readers about the unintended consequences of overly-accommodative Fed policy and dollar debasement for as long as we have known him and he is uniquely positioned to provide us with the historical context to understand where we find ourselves in the present cycle. What we came to this conversation wanting to know from Jim, as someone who has lived through at least 3 major credit cycles, is if in fact he feels that this inflation is not transitory. If in fact, he thinks that we are in the process of up-anchoring inflation expectations and what this means for the Fed's policy options, with important implications for assets like stocks, bonds, cryptocurrency, etc., whose prices have depended on the free-flow of credit that becomes less readily available in an environment of rising consumer and producer prices. This is a phenomenal conversation that will help you integrate the history of inflation and what we know about its causes into the unique circumstances of our modern political-economy, which is characterized by historically high debt levels, aging demographics, and technology-driven deflation, in a way that can make you a better, more thoughtful investor.  Topics discussed during the Overtime include precious metals, cryptocurrency, meme stocks, ethics in journalism, and more. You can access that part of the conversation, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts Subscribe to our mailing list through the Hidden Forces Website Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://patreon.com/hiddenforces Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 11/18/2021

It can take a long time for a bubble to burst. Four years ago, in 2017, Grant's Interest Rate Observer, a highly regarded financial newsletter, wrote an article about the now infamous China Evergrande group. Back then, it was anything but a familiar name except in China and among some institutional investors. The article was titled “Ever Higher” as Grant published a chart showing the extraordinary rise in China Evergrande's stock price on the Hong Kong exchange that spring. Fast forward to 2021, and indeed, Evergrande, once the world's most valuable property stock, has become famous as the world's most heavily indebted property company. With an estimated $300 billion in debt, it also could become Asia's largest bankruptcy as China's government seems less and less likely to come to the rescue. Why should the U.S. investors care? What if any significance does it have outside of China? That is where financial thought leader, journalist/sleuth, and historian James Grant comes in. Grant is the Founder and Editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, a twice-monthly journal about all interest-sensitive investments which pretty much covers the waterfront. It is considered a must-read by professional investors, including at leading hedge funds, private equity, and investment firms. I started the discussion with Evergrande: why it warranted Grant's readers' attention back in 2017 and what it represents now. WEALTHTRACK #1814 broadcast on October 01, 2021 More Info: http://wealthtrack.com/beyond-evergrandes-fall-its-far-reaching-impact-with-influential-journalist-historian-james-grant/ Bookshelf: Money of the Mind: Borrowing and Lending in America from the Civil War to Michael Milken https://amzn.to/3AZV2th John Adams: Party of One https://amzn.to/3ip3hb9 Bagehot: The Life and Times of the Greatest Victorian https://amzn.to/3ASPReN --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/wealthtrack/support

On August 15, 1971, President Richard Nixon suspended the convertibility of the US Dollar into gold, effectively ending the Bretton Woods Agreement that had been put in place after WW2 to stabilize the postwar economy. Host Ed Coyne is joined by Jim Grant, founder and editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer to look back at this significant event in monetary history. In this lively conversation Jim and Ed dig into how it came about, Nixon's motivations and where we are today fifty years into the fiat currency era. 

Industry legend and economic guru James Grant, long-time publisher of the highly regarded Grant's Interest Rate Observer, joins David on Capital Record this week for a lengthy chat about economic history. They go through the highs and lows of the Fed and the growing social discord Grant expects from current monetary policy. James Grant is an academic, a student, a teacher, a writer, a reader, and this week, he is the very special guest of Capital Record. P.S. Listen through to the end for a fun anecdote about the first time David met James Grant!

Real Vision Live Replays. It isn't hard to find data indicative of the madness that pervades the current market environment, but to Jim Grant, founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, no data point encapsulates this quite as clearly as the staggering $17 trillion of negative-yielding debt outstanding in the world. As an avid historian of interest rates, Grant argues that the only certainty is that this will end and most likely it will end badly. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Grant explores why he is so certain that this monetary experiment will end badly, the unintended negative consequences that can be seen in credit markets as yield starved investors grope for any yield they can find no matter the risk, and the opportunities this presents for investors willing to bet that a guaranteed loss on your investment will eventually fall out of fashion. As well the pair will discuss the implications of Biden's selection of Janet Yellen as his Treasury Secretary and potential for a return to an inflationary environment.  Recorded on Dec 3, 2020. For Jim's charts, click here: https://rvtv.io/3lBES10 For Listeners: Checkout skillshare.com and learn a new skill. You can use a unique promo link skillshare.com/realvision Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

William White, former central banker at the BoE, BoC, and BIS and senior fellow at the CD Howe Institute, has been a thorn in the side of his central banking colleagues for decades, questioning their hubris and pushing hard for a paradigm shift from within. Together with legendary financial commentator Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, White explores the difficulty of paradigm shifts within central banking and the overwhelming historical evidence that this easy money experiment will end badly. White also expresses what he believes to be the core problem with central bankers' analytical framework — namely, that it assumes that the global economic system is "comprehensible, understandable, and controllable" rather than a complex, adaptive system with characteristics that are not present in the models that attempt to decipher it. As well, Grant questions White on his views on Bitcoin, how he personally invests, what he would do if he were running the Federal Reserve, and if there is any possible way out of our current predicament. . Key Learnings: Central Bankers' neglect for history will be their ultimate undoing, and although new, previously unthinkable policies have been enacted recently, it can hardly be considered a paradigm shift but merely a more extreme implementation of the same flawed analytical framework. The outcome of the deflation vs. inflation debate is not cut and dry even to someone as learned as William White, and he himself has for decades implemented a barbell strategy of cash and property as a way to position for this uncertainty. Recorded on November 16, 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jim Grant is the founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, a twice-monthly journal of financial markets popular among some of the most famous investors. Over past 35+ years of the publication, Grant developed a cult following on Wall Street.   In this interview we discussed Modern Monetary Theory and its limitations, Keynesian and Austrian Schools of Economics, recent government actions in response to COVID, Jim's life, career, and founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer. 

Today is another AMA episode (Ask Me Anything). Ryan in Los Angeles asks: “I'm astounded by your prolific podcasting and breadth of knowledge. You seem to be inside my head in that whenever I think of a question to ask, I usually find the answer by listening to earlier episodes of your podcast. Please keep up the amazing work. Where do you go to or what do you use to curate your summary of daily or weekly news sources you read to stay abreast of your real estate and related economic news? I find myself being overwhelmed by having to pick certain sites (e.g., REIS, NMHC, John Burns Consulting, Marcus & Millichap, etc.) to read each week.” This is a great question. Developing content for the show is an intentional process that consists of a balance of topics of different types. As much as possible, I would like the content to be evergreen, that is to say, timeless. Some episodes are precisely that, a timeless piece of content on a particular topic. For example, if you search back through the archives. There is an episode on water rights. That’s an example of evergreen content. Some topics are tie into something that is trending in the news. For example, there will usually be an updated economic outlook once a quarter, or an interest rate adjustment. But this year, things have been changing so rapidly, that once a quarter isn’t enough. The impacts are being felt fast and furious. I try to cycle through the major segments in the industry including residential, multi-family apartments, retail, hospitality, office and industrial. To answer your question specifically, I have a number of sources that I refer to regularly to when I’m researching topics. The major brokerage houses have research departments. I read those reports and often use them as a launch pad for deeper research. I also look at the reports from the research wings of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The folks at Fannie Mae under chief economist Dr. Doug Duncan do some of the best research in the business. I pay attention to what some of the most tenant friendly politicians are saying. For example I regularly receive press releases from certain elected officials at the Federal and State level. They often put out a press release when they table draft legislation. I follow the work of Dr. Chris Martenson, Dr. John Campbell, Simon Black, David Stockman, Jim Grant the author of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. I follow John Mauldin. He’s an economist who is one of the best connected guys in the business. He has central bankers on speed dial on his phone. I speak with other investors. I speak with Robert Kiyosaki, Russell Gray, Robert Helms, Brien Lundin, folks who are specialists in their specific area. I also mine Business Insider, the Wall Street Journal, Apartments.com, the Financial Times, the Globe and Mail, the National Association of Realtors. What I’ve shared is a subset of a long list of regular sources. But when I find a story that I think will be interesting, I’m not merely retelling the story from a newspaper. I will go to the original sources and construct a completely new perspective on the story based on my own observation. For example, the story on yesterday’s show was about a landlord defending a discrimination complaint in New Jersey. It was reported in a local Northern New Jersey publication. I went to the 10 page transcript of the settlement ruling from the New Jersey Attorney General’s office in order to make sense of the story. If the source of the story is in a fringe publication, I will look and see if the story has made it into some of the more mainstream publications. I don’t want to be seen as part of the lunatic fringe. There are some days when I’ve completed the research and the summary for an episode and I decide against publication. Those are difficult decisions. Thank you Ryan for a great question.

James Grant, founder of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer and author of the biography “Bagehot,” the life of times of the muse of modern central banking (published in 2019), returns to “The Sherman Show” to discuss, among other topics, paradoxical market ... Read More

Bill and Grant welcome the legendary Jim Grant, founder and editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, and author of a number of stupendous chronicles of both financial history and those who helped shape it. The three discuss the importance of historical parallels to today's somewhat bemusing coin shortage before digging deeper into the past to examine previous inflationary episodes and discuss what lessons they might offer for our immediate future as we move towards The End Game. As always, Jim brings an encyclopaedic knowledge wrapped in an eloquence and humour sadly lacking in today's financial commentary. Don't forget to visit www.grant-williams.com to find out more about how to access future episodes of The Grant Williams Podcast after February 1st.

In this podcast episode, I share the audio portion of my May 15th webinar interview with James Grant, editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer.  Jim is the author of numerous books and brings an encyclopedic history of financial markets to his analysis of current developments. To learn more about the THINK FOR YOURSELF webinar series, please visit www.mansharamani.com. 

Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com

Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com

Ronald Stoeferle, managing partner at Incrementum AG, calls in to discuss pressing monetary matters and to review the investment merits of the Money of Kings. 4:22 Institutional distrust means opportunity 11:34 Deflation and the U.S. dollar 18:14 The miners: a dismal past but a better future? 25:09 Gold and crypto, monetary cousins Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com

Investor and writer Tim Bergin calls in to discuss the risks and opportunities associated with our warming planet. 2:33 Climate primer and the risks of rising C02 7:17 What’s different this time?11:50 Assessing potential remedies 18:30 A cook’s tour of NIO, Inc. 24:13 Making sense of high short interest Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com

In Episode 118 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Jim Grant, founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, a twice-monthly journal of the financial markets.  Born in New York City and raised on Long Island, Jim had thoughts, first, of a career in music, not interest rates—french horn was his love. But he threw it over to enter the Navy. Following his stint in the Navy, Jim enrolled Indiana University where he studied economics under Scott Gordon and Elmus Wicker and diplomatic history under Robert H. Ferrell, and later, obtained a master’s degree in international affairs under the guiding tutelage of cultural historian, critic and public intellectual Jacques Barzun.  In 1972, at the age of 26, Grant began working as a cub reporter at the Baltimore Sun, moving to Barron’s in 1975. The late 1970s were years of inflation, monetary disorder and upheaval in the interest-rate markets—as Jim Grant says, “of journalistic opportunity.” Barron's editor Robert M. Bleiberg, tapped Grant to originate a column devoted to interest rates. This weekly department, called “Current Yield,” he wrote until the time he left to found the eponymous “Interest Rate Observer” in the summer of 1983.   During his long career, Jim Grant has written a series of books including three financial histories, a pair of collections of Grant’s articles and four biographies, the most recent of which is about the life and times of Walter Bagehot, whose ideas about central banking informed the U.S. Federal Reserve's response to the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-09. This conversation is unusually convivial, even by the normal standards. Demetri and Jim discuss actions by the Federal Reserve in the repo market (including official and unofficial explanations for the turmoil seen in mid-September 2019), the recent WeWork and SoftBank debacle, a possible bubble in the leveraged loan market, and much more.  During the overtime to this week’s episode, Jim shares information about how he invests his own money (and who he invests it with), delves into some of Grant’s value analysis research and provides insights into his own work process as an editor and interviewer. If you want access to the overtime or to the transcript and rundown for this conversation, you can do so through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. Subscribers also gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily be added to your favorite podcast application.  Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Jim Grant delivers a holiday message and review of 2019 financial events.   1:15 The state of the world as 2020 looms.   7:45 All things cyclical   11:30 The repo hiccup and unscripted events.   17:15 UST margin demand: a product of unnaturally-low rates?   Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com

@AmitySchlaes, author of “Great Society: A New History,” stops by the office to discuss her new book. http://www.amityshlaes.com 2:24 #BrettonWoods and the “bonanza” 8:50 Michael Harrington goes to Washington  13:10 Arthur Burns: A Greek tragedy 19:45 Presidential pressure on the Fed, then and now Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com  

Each analyst identifies a notable recent event. Jim provides a winter reading recommendation.   1:40 Dazed and confused 4:18 Crude oil and the VC market 10:24 Jim reviews “#1931” by #TobiasStraumann (shorturl.at/ioJS0)   Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com.    

Don Coxe, chairman at Coxe Advisors LLP and commodity investor par excellence, calls in to discuss the latest in agriculture and its implications. www.coxeadvisors.net/ 1:31 A contrarian look at the climate 8:38 An opportunity in natural gas? 14:07 The Maunder Minimum 17:20 A new commodity boom:  Wither inflation? Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com

Leigh Goehring and Adam Rozencwajg stop by the office to discuss opportunities in natural resources. www.gorozen.com   1:10 #Apple worth more than the entire energy sector   4:19 What’s happening with shale?   12:21 Tier-one wells on the wane   18:43 Bargains abound in energy   Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com

Extreme Value Editor Dan Ferris shares the latest gems in famed investor Warren Buffett's annual letter, including a prospect that's making his heart beat faster. Dan's joined by James Grant, editor and founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer who shares a warning about a day of reckoning for the Federal Reserve's era of easy credit.  

Last week I recorded the most memorable podcast I've hosted in some time. Jim Grant, editor of the famed Grant's Interest Rate Observer, joined us for a discussion. Grant's, in my opinion, is one of the finest financial publications out there. And it's a treat to have a guy like Jim on the podcast. He's written Grant's for 35 years. And in that time, he's made some incredible calls (including first writing about the excesses in housing in 2001) and some not so incredible ones… But, most importantly, he's amassed a cult following of the best and brightest in business and finance. Central bankers, Wall Street CEOs, hedge fund billionaires… they all read Jim. In other words, his opinions count. So I hope you'll tune in to hear what he has to say… In our discussion, Jim and I talk about the current state of the economy, the latest Fed announcement and some of the insane excesses in the market today. And Jim sums of the absurdity of today's market in one, important paradox. Finally, we share a few ideas on how to protect yourself and maybe even profit from these excesses. Also, at the end of our discussion, Jim shares a very special offer for Sovereign Man readers. To learn more about the exclusive deal we've arranged, just click here… And, you can listen to the podcast here.

Investment Counselor and Local Market Specialist Liaison, Carrie joins Jason Hartman to see if he can correctly predict the effect the rise in interest rates will have on the US economy. Jason reminds us the Feds don't directly impact mortgage rates but by directly impacting short-term rates all rates will be affected. For those of you who have income properties, the higher interest rates will put upward pressure on rents. Key Takeaways: [3:41] What does the spike in interest rates mean for investors? [9:55] Higher interest rates will put upward pressure on rents and lessen the concentration of wealth. [14:05] Local Market Specialists and Investment Counselors are always working in the client's best interest. [23:29] It's important to get pre-approved for financing in today's seller's market. [24:58] Jason hints about the location for the next Venture Alliance Mastermind. Website: www.JasonHartman.com/Properties Grant's Interest Rate Observer www.VentureAllianceMastermind.com ***The Property Tour Referenced in This Episode Has Passed*** "The Fed has weapons it can use to fix the economy and interest rates are one of those weapons."

Investment Counselor and Local Market Specialist Liaison, Carrie joins Jason Hartman to see if he can correctly predict the effect the rise in interest rates will have on the US economy. Jason reminds us the Feds don't directly impact mortgage rates but by directly impacting short-term rates all rates will be affected. For those of you who have income properties, the higher interest rates will put upward pressure on rents. And if you are looking for additional properties, be sure to get pre-approved for financing before the Oklahoma Property Tour and JHU Live event. Key Takeaways: [03:56] What does the spike in interest rates mean for investors? [10:10] Higher interest rates will put upward pressure on rents and lessen the concentration of wealth. [14:20] Local Market Specialists and Investment Counselors are always working in the client's best interest. [23:44] It's important to get pre-approved for financing in today's seller's market. [25:13] Jason hints about the location for the next Venture Alliance Mastermind. Website: www.JasonHartman.com/Properties Grant's Interest Rate Observer www.VentureAllianceMastermind.com "The Fed has weapons it can use to fix the economy and interest rates are one of those weapons."

Investment Counselor and Local Market Specialist Liaison, Carrie joins Jason Hartman to see if he can correctly predict the effect the rise in interest rates will have on the US economy. Jason reminds us the Feds don't directly impact mortgage rates but by directly impacting short-term rates all rates will be affected. For those of you who have income properties, the higher interest rates will put upward pressure on rents. And if you are looking for additional properties, be sure to get pre-approved for financing before the Oklahoma Property Tour and JHU Live event. Key Takeaways: [03:53] What does the spike in interest rates mean for investors? [10:07] Higher interest rates will put upward pressure on rents and lessen the concentration of wealth. [14:17] Local Market Specialists and Investment Counselors are always working in the client's best interest. [23:41] It's important to get pre-approved for financing in today's seller's market. [25:10] Jason hints about the location for the next Venture Alliance Mastermind. Website: www.JasonHartman.com/Properties Grant's Interest Rate Observer www.VentureAllianceMastermind.com "The Fed has weapons it can use to fix the economy and interest rates are one of those weapons."

Janus Capital Management's Bill Gross says he's skeptical that real GDP growth can rise to 3 to 4 percent. Prior to that, Alan Krueger, a professor at Princeton University, says NAFTA has been positive for the U.S. Bob Doll, Nuveen's chief equity strategist, says the more restrictions enacted, the less efficient the economy will be. Jim Grant, editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, says he expects the U.S. to revert back to the 1970s' weak dollar policy. Finally, PIMCO's Scott Mather says investors are underpricing central bank action. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citigroup, says the Fed is excessively sensitive to what it thinks the markets might do and how markets react. Jim Grant, editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, says Janet Yellen and central banks ought to be nearly invisible. Ken Doctor, author and columnist of Newsonomics, says we have half the number of journalists in local newsrooms than we had in 1990. Anne-Marie Slaughter, New America CEO & Princeton professor, says part of the problem of globalization is that it has left so many people who aren't part of a global network behind. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

McAlvany Weekly Commentary About this week's show: Government inaction shortened the Depression of 1920 Government action extended the Depression of 1930's When left alone the business cycle self corrects Be sure to order James Grant’s latest book: The Forgotten Depression: 1921: The Crash That Cured Itself About the guest: James Grant founded Grant’s Interest Rate Observer in 1983 following […] The post James Grant: The Forgotten Depression appeared first on McAlvany Weekly Commentary.