Podcasts about linneman letter

In this episode, hosts Tait Duryea and Ryan Gibson talk with chief economist Dr. Peter Linneman to demystify interest rates, the national deficit, and how it all affects pilots, real estate investors, and entrepreneurs. Discover why U.S. debt may not be the threat it's made out to be, how capital flows drive values, and what most people get wrong about inflation and treasury yields. They also unpack commercial real estate's current cycle, the impact of bonus depreciation, and why now might be the smartest time to invest if you know where to look.Dr. Peter Linneman is a renowned economist, former Wharton professor, and founder of Linneman Associates. With a PhD from the University of Chicago and decades of experience advising major firms and boards, he is the author of the industry-standard textbook Real Estate Finance and Investments and publisher of the respected Linneman Letter. In this episode, he shares plainspoken economic insight tailored for high-income professionals and investors.Show notes:(0:00) Intro(03:16) Peter Linneman's background and credentials(06:45) Why the deficit fear is overblown(09:39) U.S. debt vs. national wealth explained(13:18) The real issue: inefficient spending(17:46) What pilots should focus on instead(23:12) Why U.S. wealth keeps growing(28:00) Are we headed into a recession?(34:17) Where we are in the real estate cycle(39:11) Bonus depreciation and capital flows(42:27) Why treasury and Fed rates diverged(45:53) OutroConnect with Dr. Peter Linneman:Website: https://www.linnemanassociates.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peterlinneman — You've found the number one resource for financial education for aviators! Please consider leaving a rating and sharing this podcast with your colleagues in the aviation community, as it can serve as a valuable resource for all those involved in the industry.Remember to subscribe for more insights at PassiveIncomePilots.com! https://passiveincomepilots.com/ Join our growing community on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/groups/passivepilotsCheck us out on Instagram @PassiveIncomePilots: https://www.instagram.com/passiveincomepilots/Follow us on X @IncomePilots: https://twitter.com/IncomePilotsGet our updates on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/passive-income-pilots/Do you have questions or want to discuss this episode? Contact us at ask@passiveincomepilots.com See you on the next one!*Legal Disclaimer*The content of this podcast is provided solely for educational and informational purposes. The views and opinions expressed are those of the hosts, Tait Duryea and Ryan Gibson, and do not reflect those of any organization they are associated with, including Turbine Capital or Spartan Investment Group. The opinions of our guests are their own and should not be construed as financial advice. This podcast does not offer tax, legal, or investment advice. Listeners are advised to consult with their own legal or financial counsel and to conduct their own due diligence before making any financial decisions.

I was pleased to be joined by the illustrious Dr. Peter Linneman to get his thoughts on the economy, tariffs and the industrial real estate market!In the interview Dr. Peter Linneman shares his perspective on current events in the industrial real estate market, emphasizing the importance of cutting through the noise to focus on fundamental economic indicators such as job growth, GDP trends, and capital flows. He uses an analogy of trying to predict the Super Bowl winner 10 years from now to illustrate the futility of long-term market forecasts based on short-term events. Linneman discusses the state of various real estate sectors, noting that office spaces have bottomed out and are starting to recover, while industrial warehouses, particularly big-box facilities, have experienced overbuilding but are expected to absorb excess supply due to steady demand growth. He also addresses reshoring and manufacturing, stating it will remain limited due to higher labor costs in the U.S., and emphasizes America's economic strength due to robust capital markets and innovation. Linneman remains optimistic about the resilience and long-term strength of the U.S. economy despite ongoing challenges.About Dr. Linneman: For nearly 45 years, Dr. Peter Linneman's unique blend of scholarly rigor and practical business insight has won him accolades from around the world, including PREA's prestigious Graaskamp Award for Real Estate Research, Wharton's Zell-Lurie Real Estate Center's Lifetime Achievement Award, Realty Stock Magazine's Special Achievement Award, being named "One of the 25 Most Influential People in Real Estate" by Realtor Magazine and inclusion in The New York Observer's "100 Most Powerful People in New York Real Estate".After receiving both his Masters and Doctorate in Economics under the tutelage of Nobel Prize winners Milton Friedman, Gary Becker, George Stigler, Ted Schultz and Jim Heckman, Peter had a distinguished academic career at both The University of Chicago and the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. For 35 years, he was a leading member of Wharton's faculty, serving as the Albert Sussman Professor of Real Estate, Finance and Public Policy as well as the Founding Chairman of the Real Estate Department and Director of the prestigious Zell-Lurie Real Estate Center. During this time, he was co-editor of The Wharton Real Estate Review. He has published over 100 scholarly articles, eight editions of the acclaimed book Real Estate Finance and Investments: Risks and Opportunities, and the widely read Linneman Letter quarterly report. He is also the co-creator of the popular, and highly regarded, Real Estate Finance and Investment Certification course, REFAI. Most recently, he co-authored (with Dr. Michael Roizen and Albert Ratner) the best-selling book "The Great Age Reboot: Cracking the Longevity Code for a Younger Tomorrow."Peter's long and ongoing business career is highlighted by his roles as Founding Principal of Linneman Associates, LLC, a leading real estate advisory firm, and its affiliates. For more than 40 years, he has advised leading corporations and served on over 20 public and private boards, including serving as Chairman of Rockefeller Center Properties, where he led the successful restructuring and sale of Rockefeller Center in the mid-1990s.Although retired from Wharton's faculty, Dr. Linneman continues his commitment to education through his SAM Elimu educational charity for orphans and children of extreme poverty in rural Kenya. He has been married for nearly 50 years and remains an exercise enthusiast. Connect with Dr. Linneman:Website: https://www.linnemanassociates.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peterlinneman/SAM Elimu charity: https://www.samelimucharity.org/--

Join us on this enlightening episode of "Passive Investing from Left Field" as our host Jim Peifer sits down with the renowned economist, Professor Peter Linneman. With decades of experience and wisdom, Peter shares his unique insights on the current economic climate, including the real impact of interest rates, the truths behind inflation rates, and the resilience of the U.S. economy. Whether you're an investor, an economist, or just curious about the future of the economy, this episode offers valuable perspectives on navigating economic uncertainty and seizing opportunities in the market. Don't miss Peter's expert analysis and predictions for what lies ahead. Tune in now!  About Dr. Peter Linneman Dr. Peter Linneman holds both master's and doctorate degrees in economics from the University of Chicago. He is the principal of Linneman Associates. For nearly four decades, he has provided strategic and financial advice to leading corporations through Linneman Associates. He provides M&A, analysis, market studies, feasibility analysis to many leading US international companies. In addition, he serves as an advisor to and a board member of several public and private companies. Peter was a professor of real estate at the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania, from 1979 until his retirement in 2011. He's an accomplished author having written books, articles, and of course, The Linneman Letter, a quarterly letter for commercial real estate investors.  Here are some power takeaways from today's conversation:02:27 His real estate journey06:22 Do the fed believe they need to create a recession?10:33 Why the fed looks at the CPI and PCE 17:32 What's next?19:41 The cause of inflation24:26 Are economic cycles gone?29:22 Unemployment  33:31 Is the fed trying to push for the 5% unemployment?35:11 Standard economic measures are up, but the Economy is seen as down - why?39:03 Contact Peter This show is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing said on the show should be considered financial advice. Before making any decisions, consult a professional. This show is copyrighted by Passive Investing from Left Field and Left Field Investors. Written permissions must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.       Resources Mentioned:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peterlinneman/Website: https://www.linnemanassociates.com/peter-linneman Advertising Partners:Left Field Investors:https://www.leftfieldinvestors.com/Rust Belt Capitalhttps://rustbeltcapital.com/Left Field Investors - BEChttps://www.leftfieldinvestors.com/bec/Midloch:https://midloch.com/Avoiding Rookie Errors as a Left Field Investor: 20 Lessons Learned From 14 Years of Passive Investing in Private Syndications by Steve Suhhttps://www.leftfieldinvestors.com/books/

Willy was once again joined by Dr. Peter Linneman for the Most Insightful Hour in CRE. Peter nailed his 2023 predictions – so what is he forecasting for the year ahead? Tune in for highlights from the latest Linneman Letter including Peter's outlook for 2024, the state of the economy, housing and auto supply, federal and consumer debt, property plays, and much more.  Watch or listen to the replay.    If you have any comments or questions, please reach out to your main Walker & Dunlop point of contact. We are all available to answer questions and provide assistance. Additionally, if you have topics you would like covered during one of our future webcasts, we would be happy to take your suggestions. 

Acclaimed economist Dr. Peter Linneman joined Willy once again for the Most Insightful Hour in CRE, Live from the New York Stock Exchange – and you won't want to miss his hot takes on today's most pressing issues.  They covered topics from the latest Linneman Letter including the housing market, how the major economies across the U.S. are performing, the state of the CRE asset classes, the longstanding impact of global tensions on the economy, the Fed's next move, the public vs. private markets, and much more. Watch or listen to the replay.   If you have any comments or questions, please reach out to your main Walker & Dunlop point of contact. We are all available to answer questions and provide assistance. Additionally, if you have topics you would like covered during one of our future webcasts, we would be happy to take your suggestions.   

Peter Linneman leads as Founder and CEO of American Land Fund Management, KL Realty, and Linneman Associates. He is the author of Real Estate Finance and Investments: Risks and Opportunities, the quarterly publication, The Linneman Letter, and more than 100 scholarly publications.In this episode, we talked about:Peter's Book: Real Estate Finance and Investments: Risks and OpportunitiesOffice Real Estate Market OverviewOpportunities in Real EstateUseful links:Previous episode: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/state-of-the-market-and-real-estate/id1505750263?i=1000557554818

Join us for part two of our podcast interview with renowned economist Dr. Peter Linneman, principal of Linneman Associates. Get ready for more valuable insights on topics like the under-supply of single-family housing and its impact on the market, the relationship between high prices, profits, and supply, and what the Federal Reserve is doing about inflation. If you missed part one, be sure to check it out for even more great insights from Peter. Let's dive in!About Dr. Peter Linneman Dr. Peter Linneman holds both master's and doctorate degrees in economics from the University of Chicago. He is the principal of Linneman Associates. For nearly four decades, he has provided strategic and financial advice to leading corporations through Linneman Associates. He provides M&A, analysis, market studies, feasibility analysis to many leading US international companies. In addition, he serves as an advisor to and a board member of several public and private companies. Peter was a professor of real estate at the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania, from 1979 until his retirement in 2011. He's an accomplished author having written books, articles, and of course, The Linneman Letter, a quarterly letter for commercial real estate investors.Here are some power takeaways from today's conversation:[02:52] Why the economy is not overheated[04:07] The relationship between high prices, profits, and supply[05:52] How the pandemic skewered the numbers[10:18] How much are rents going up for apartments?[15:26] What's the Fed going to do about inflation?[17:05] The importance of gradual interest rate increases[19:44] The Impact of Bank Failures[29:45] Why the market for [39:55] The importance of asking for helpEpisode Highlights:[04:07] The Relationship Between High Prices, Profits, and SupplyPeter explains that high prices encourage suppliers to increase production, which was demonstrated in 2021-2022 when record profits led to more supply and lower prices. Despite this, the Federal Reserve has chosen to suppress demand even though it is below trend, rather than allowing it to increase and spurring more supply. This decision's long-term implications remain unknown. Instead of reducing demand, the solution to an underperforming economy is to increase supply.[17:05] The Importance of Gradual Interest Rate IncreasesIn December 2020, it was clear that interest rates needed to be raised from zero, according to Peter. However, the key was to do so slowly and without rushing. Unfortunately, it took another year and a quarter for the Federal Reserve to initiate the rate increases.Peter argues that if the Fed had started raising rates gradually earlier, both the markets and the banks could have adjusted accordingly. It is comparable to adjusting to a typhoon versus the same amount of rain spread out over a two-year period. Gradual rate increases would have allowed for a smoother adjustment period instead of sudden shocks to the economic system.[31:14] The Under Supply of Single Family Housing and Its Impact on the MarketThere's a significant three and a half percent under-supply of single-family housing, which becomes significant when considering the high demand for this type of housing. The shortfall is comparable to a shortage of Toyotas in an economy where only two types of cars exist. This creates an opportunity for multifamily properties to benefit. However, due to NIMBYISM and pent-up demand, this shortfall is unlikely to disappear soon. Therefore, it's important to address the housing under-supply with innovative solutions to meet market demands.This show is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing said on the show should be considered financial advice. Before making any decisions, consult a professional. This show is copyrighted by Passive Investing from Left Field and Left Field Investors. Written permissions must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.Resources Mentioned:Linneman Associates

Let's dive into the world of economics and real estate with Dr. Peter Linneman, an accomplished economist and advisor to leading corporations. He shares his insights on finding great mentors, learning as a skill, and navigating the current state of the US economy. With years of experience in providing M&A, analysis, market studies, and feasibility analyses to various companies, Dr. Linneman is highly regarded in the industry and has been serving as an adviser and board member of several public and private companies. Get ready to learn from his wealth of knowledge and expertise in this exciting episode.About Dr. Peter Linneman Dr. Peter Linneman holds both master's and doctorate degrees in economics from the University of Chicago. He is the principal of Linneman Associates. For nearly four decades, he has provided strategic and financial advice to leading corporations through Linneman Associates. He provides M&A, analysis, market studies, feasibility analysis to many leading US international companies. In addition, he serves as an advisor to and a board member of several public and private companies. Peter was a professor of real estate at the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania, from 1979 until his retirement in 2011. He's an accomplished author having written books, articles, and of course, The Linneman Letter, a quarterly letter for commercial real estate investors.Here are some power takeaways from today's conversation:[02:17] Introduction of Peter Linneman[04:07] Early beginnings from a blue-collar background to the real estate industry[05:31] Opportunities that arose from networking and doing good work[12:13] Importance of being a good student and knowing how to learn [16:58] The current state of the economy[21:44] The worst thing facing the economy[23:50] The Fed's crazy approach to the economyEpisode Highlights:[10:07] How to Find Great MentorsStart by identifying people who have skills and experience that you can learn from. Look for individuals who are willing to share their knowledge and expertise with you. Once you've identified potential mentors, show them that you are serious and committed to learning by demonstrating your work ethic and willingness to put in the effort. Don't be afraid to ask for their guidance and advice. Remember, learning is a skill that requires curiosity and a willingness to seek out new information. Build a relationship with your mentor by communicating regularly and showing appreciation for their time and expertise. [17:48] The Current State of the EconomyCurrently, the US economy is in a state of recovery from the pandemic. Real GDP is at about 2.5% of pre-pandemic levels, indicating that we have grown over the last three years, which is a positive sign. However, employment is still below pre-pandemic levels, and the Fed's attempt to get rid of employment is misguided. On the bright side, around two-thirds of homeowners have mortgages with an interest rate that is two to three percentage points lower than the historic norm, giving them more financial freedom. The travel and tourism industry is almost back to pre-pandemic levels, but there is still room for growth in areas such as automobile consumption. Despite concerns about the amount of debt rolling over, only 25% of corporate and real estate debt rolls over in the next three years, giving businesses some cushion and margin. Overall, there are good things happening in the economy, such as the normalization of supply chains. [21:44] The Worst Thing Facing the EconomyThe biggest challenge facing the economy is the Fed's belief that their job is to create a recession. This approach is dangerous, and they tend to overreact and be late in their responses. While we have weathered the shutdown of the economy for a year and a half, the current challenge posed by the Fed is something we can overcome.This show is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing said on the show should be considered financial advice. Before making any decisions, consult a professional. This show is copyrighted by Passive Investing from Left Field and Left Field Investors. Written permissions must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.Resources Mentioned:Linneman Associates

To access a FREE collection of resources, go to www.TheMaverickVault.com   Explore the intricacies of real estate investing and delve into the current state of the economic market in this episode featuring Dr. Peter Linneman. Gain valuable insights into emerging trends, metrics, and strategies to maximize returns while mitigating risks. Unveil the opportunities that await in this ever-evolving landscape by tuning in today!   Key Takeaways From This Episode Important inflation metrics you need to know in the current economic market  The impact of Federal Reserve System policies on property investors and capital markets  A simple analysis of the economic growth of various nations  Ultimate benefits of investing in multifamily and retail properties  Qualities to look for in a real estate investment partner  Advantages of learning from seasoned investors   References/Links Mentioned Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio | Kindle and Hardcover About Dr. Peter Linneman Dr. Peter Linneman, a renowned figure in real estate, has gained global recognition for his combination of rigorous scholarship and practical business insights. With over 45 years of experience, he has received prestigious accolades, including the Graaskamp Award for Real Estate Research from PREA, the Lifetime Achievement Award from Wharton's Zell-Lurie Real Estate Center, and the Special Achievement Award from Realty Stock Magazine. He has been named one of the "25 Most Influential People in Real Estate" by Realtor Magazine and included in The New York Observer's list of the "100 Most Powerful People in New York Real Estate." Dr. Linneman earned his Master and Doctorate in Economics under the guidance of esteemed Nobel Prize winners, such as Milton Friedman, Gary Becker, George Stigler, Ted Schultz, and Jim Heckman. He was the Founding Chairman of the Real Estate Department and Director of the renowned Zell-Lurie Real Estate Center. During his tenure at Wharton, he co-edited The Wharton Real Estate Review and published over 100 scholarly articles. He authored eight editions of the acclaimed book "Real Estate Finance and Investments: Risks and Opportunities" and the widely read quarterly report, the Linneman Letter. He co-created the highly regarded Real Estate Finance and Investment Certification course, REFAI. Recently, he co-authored the best-selling book "The Great Age Reboot: Cracking the Longevity Code for a Younger Tomorrow" with Dr. Michael Roizen and Albert Ratner. Besides his academic accomplishments, Dr. Linneman has enjoyed a successful business career as the Founding Principal of Linneman Associates, LLC, a leading real estate advisory firm, and its affiliates.   Connect with Dr. Peter Website: Linneman Asscociates, LLC  Email: dlinneman@linnemanassociates.com    Are you a passive real estate investor seeking financial freedom? Almost daily, new headlines break on the latest financial market upset. Now is the time to get educated on how to strategically invest in commercial real estate for long-term financial freedom. Grab your copy of “How to Passively Invest in a Changing Economic Environment” Go to…www.MavericksInvest.com Want to keep up to date on the commercial real estate market, trends, investing tips and know what Neil is buying right now? Connect with him at Legacy Impact Investors and be sure to register for his newsletter. Connect with Neil Timmins on LinkedIn. If there is a topic you want to know more about or a guest that you would like to see on the show, shoot Neil a message on LinkedIn.   About Neil Timmins Having completed hundreds of Fix & Flips, Wholesales, Wholetails, Novations, and Owner-Financed deals, Neil longed to quit forfeiting time for dollars. After building a portfolio of single-family rentals to produce passive income, he found the strategy to be anything but passive. Neil didn't go looking for his first commercial deal—he stumbled into it. Since then, he has refined the process of analyzing and buying commercial properties that produce stellar cash flow. Neil has been involved in over $300,000,000 in real estate transactions. While his holdings in commercial assets include apartments, offices, mobile home parks, and self-storage units, his passion is industrial property. Neil now has verticals in residential real estate, multiple commercial asset classes, brokerage, publishing, and a successful podcast.   Click here to see video of the podcast. 

  Join us as we venture into a realm of knowledge with the brilliant Dr. Peter Linneman, author of the renowned Linneman Letter—an exceptional macroeconomic resource. Unveiling the US economy's resilient recovery from the 2020 pandemic, Dr. Linneman explores the intriguing concept of "economic long covid." This riveting discussion encompasses monetary policy, inflation rates, housing costs, supply chain disruptions, and more. It serves as a cautionary tale, highlighting the dangers of overcorrecting during these trying times. Together, we delve into the dynamics of the housing market, the prospects of hospitality and industrial sectors, and the significance of collaborative decision-making for investment success. Prepare to unlock a wealth of insights!   Learn more about ALTERNATIVE BUSINESS and INVESTMENT STRATEGIES through QUATTRO CAPITAL! LinkedIn: /TeamQuattroCapital Instagram: @TeamQuattroCapital Facebook: @TeamQuattroCapital Website: www.TheQuattroWay.com  TikTok:@realestaterunwaypodcast   [00:00 - 08:02] Dr. Peter Linneman welcome: Exploring Economic Long Covid and Maximizing Wealth • Dr. Peter Linman is the author of the Lineman Letter, one of the most advanced and current macroeconomic letters in the market today • Before 2020, the US economy was doing just fine with low unemployment and steady job growth • When Covid happened, governments shut down huge swaths of the economy and individuals panicked • The only two possibilities were either supply would come back before demand or demand would come back faster than supply   [08:02 - 17:25] Faster Interest Rate Hikes Lead to Systematic Inflation and Overreaction Damage • Prices went up due to systematically short supply • Profits went up a lot as supply lagged behind demand • Fed first said no to raising interest rates, but then changed its mind and raised them by 5% in a year, the fastest in history • The slower the Fed raises rates, the longer it takes for the first rate cut; the faster they raise rates   [17:25 - 26:38] Fed's Abnormal Inflation and Supply Chain Disruptions Could Lead to Another Cycle of Interest Rate Changes • Need to be cautious when making decisions as overcorrecting can cause more damage • Main driver of inflation has been housing, which lags by 6 months • Two thirds of households had no increase in costs, and one third are being counted as if it's the rental increase of 6 months ago • Supply chain disruptions were 4 standard deviations above normal in 2021 and 2022   [26:38 - 35:53] Exploring the Long-Term Supply and Demand Imbalance in Housing • Job openings have narrowed and wage growth has diminished • Real estate is a long-term game, with an imbalance in supply and demand for homes • Low interest rates, lack of down payments, and nimbyism are factors contributing to the deficit in housing • Investing during periods of capital market disarray can generate higher returns over the long term   [35:54 - 45:14] The Fundamentals of Housing and Retail • Single-family housing is underproduced, leading to a 3.5% shortfall • Low interest rates have given homeowners a 5% income subsidy not to sell their homes • Hospitality and Industrial sectors are poised for growth due to pent-up demand • Retail is always hard work and requires changing consumer demand   [45:16 - 55:31] Optimal Retail Location, Quality, Collaboration, and the Influence of Sam Zell • Retail needs to be in a good, walkable spot to attract people • Quality is more important than convenience when it comes to retail • Sam Zell was an avid reader and a great mentor who taught Dr. Linneman a lot • They stole each other's best material and made their presentations better by collaborating • Collaboration is key to success in investment management   Quotes:  "It's not about spamming people, it's about building a meaningful relationship in a systematic and engaged way." - Dr. Peter Linneman   Connect with Peter through LinkedIn, Facebook, or visit Linneman Associates   LEAVE A 5-STAR REVIEW + help someone who wants to explode their business growth by sharing this episode. Find out how Team Quattro can help you by visiting www.TheQuattroWay.com. Real Estate Runway Podcast is all about alternative business and investment strategies to help you amplify life, and maximize wealth! Click here to find out more about the host, Chad Sutton.   Quattro Capital invites you to join Agora: Don't miss out on the opportunity to experience the forefront of investment management technology with Quattro Capital. Join Agora and schedule a demo to see our all-in-one investment management tool in action. As a bonus, enjoy Quattro's Promotion 10% discount on Yearly Subscription and Onboarding Priority! Our platform includes a powerful CRM, market-leading investor portal, and a fundraising tool that makes it easier to raise capital for new offerings. With our collaborative space, you can ensure transparency with investors and make reporting more accessible than ever before. Click here to schedule your demo and claim your discount today!   Entity Keeper CTA:  Join the EntityKeeper community today to simplify the way you manage your entities and org charts while reducing manual errors. Easily organize corporate data, visualize ownership structures, store unlimited documents, and manage important filing dates with one secure solution. Click here to start simplifying your entity management with EntityKeeper now!

In today's episode, Willy welcomes Dr. Peter Linneman. He is the principal of Linneman Associates, KL, Realty, and American Land Fund. He is cited as one of the 25 Most Influential People in Real Estate by Realtor Magazine and one of the 100 Most Powerful People in New York Real estate by the New York Observer. He is a highly sought-after speaker and author with his quarterly research, The Linneman Letter. Willy begins by citing a quote from The Linneman Letter, “​​The increases in interest rates to date will enhance economic growth, not cause a recession.” Dr. Linneman says, “of course.” He mentions that valuable things shouldn't have zero price if the goal is maximizing resource efficiency. Interest rates going up to a certain point give a better signal of where money should flow. And that will enhance economic output. It is not where interest rates are; it's the journey.

Today, Peter Linneman shares how people's life expectancies limit us from embracing our full potential and capabilities. Peter has been in the business and has been giving gifts of greater quality of living standards.    Peter believes that the most unvalued skill in life is intellectual curiosity. Intellectual curiosity will make people take action, but sometimes, it leads them to be blind but smart enough to recover from that. The inspiring words from Peter are that people are just afraid of conditions, not age. Realizing you're capable will be a big help, so listen to this!   Key Points from This Episode:   How to notice cognitive bias? Peter shares how to check people's thinking Why are people constantly distracted by things that seem unimportant but are not that important? How can people be active and reactive to people from tough times? Ten years from now, Peter explains why the success and failure of people have nothing to do with what happens six months from now. How is it empowering oneself to give the most extraordinary talents? Peter shares that a lot of people settle for mediocrity. How important is it that people should be aware of how they behave and interact with the environment? Peter shares how people can do better than mediocre.  Why is it important to focus on what matters? Tweetables: “Don't get distracted by shiny objects ” - Peter Linneman  “And I could promise you, it's not, it's not easy. It's just what you do ” - Peter Linneman “There are times when you can do so much better than mediocre ” - Peter Linneman   Links Mentioned Peter Linneman's Website   About Peter Linneman For nearly 45 years, Dr. Peter Linneman's unique blend of scholarly rigor and practical business insight has won him accolades from around the world, including PREA's prestigious Graaskamp Award for Real Estate Research, Wharton's Zell-Lurie Real Estate Center's Lifetime Achievement Award, Realty Stock Magazine's Special Achievement Award, being named "One of the 25 Most Influential People in Real Estate" by Realtor Magazine and inclusion in The New York Observer's "100 Most Powerful People in New York Real Estate".   After receiving both his Masters and Doctorate in Economics under the tutelage of Nobel Prize winners Milton Friedman, Gary Becker, George Stigler, Ted Schultz and Jim Heckman, Peter had a distinguished academic career at both The University of Chicago and the  Wharton School of Business at the  University of Pennsylvania. For 35 years, he was a leading member of Wharton's faculty, serving as the Albert Sussman Professor of Real Estate, Finance and Public Policy as well as the Founding Chairman of the Real Estate Department and Director of the prestigious Zell-Lurie Real Estate Center.  During this time, he was co-editor of The Wharton Real Estate Review. He has published over 100 scholarly articles, eight editions of the acclaimed book Real Estate Finance and Investments: Risks and Opportunities, and the widely read Linneman Letter quarterly report. He is also the co-creator of the popular, and highly regarded, Real Estate Finance and Investment Certification course, REFAI.    Peter's long and ongoing business career is highlighted by his roles as Founding Principal of Linneman Associates, LLC, a leading real estate advisory firm, and its affiliates. For more than 40 years, he has advised leading corporations and served on over 20 public and private boards, including serving as Chairman of Rockefeller Center Properties, where he led the successful restructuring and sale of Rockefeller Center in the mid-1990s.   Although retired from Wharton's faculty, Dr. Linneman continues his commitment to education through his SAM Elimu educational charity for orphans and children of extreme poverty in rural Kenya. He has been married for nearly 50 years and remains an exercise enthusiast.   --------------- Are you a real estate investor looking to elevate your income, freedom & lifestyle? If so, optimize your daily performance by downloading our free guide, Raising the Bar - 5 Steps to Elevate Your Habits, at elevatepod.com. In this guide, created by your host Tyler Chesser, you'll learn why you do what you do, how to easily institute cues in your environment to trigger desired behavior, directly applicable steps to create a fulfilling future and much more. Get your free copy at elevatepod.com and kick-start your new habits today. Your future self will thank you! This episode of Elevate is brought to you by CF Capital, a national real estate investment firm. CF Capital's mission is to provide property investment and asset management solutions to help investors like you maximize their returns by investing in high-value multifamily communities. If you are looking for risk-adjusted alternative investments in quality apartment communities, and are seeking tax optimized cash flow with appreciation upside without all the hassle of management, you might benefit from learning more about investing alongside our team. You're invited to reach out and learn how you can invest with us by visiting cfcapllc.com. We're also currently offering a free ebook called The Bottom Line - 10 Ways to Increase Cash Flow in an Apartment Complex. Whether you're a new or an experienced investor, we're confident you'll find massive value in this resource. Get your free copy today at cfcapllc.com.

Willy welcomes Dr. Michael Roizen and Dr. Peter Linneman. Dr. Michael Roizen is the Chief Wellness Officer and Chair of the Wellness Institute at Cleveland Clinic. His books, RealAge and YOU: The Owner's Manual: An Insider's Guide to the Body that Will Make you Healthier and Younger, has been translated into more than 44 languages and became #1 in the NY Times Bestsellers list. Dr. Peter Linneman is the principal of Linneman Associates, KL, Realty, and American Land Fund. He is a highly sought-after speaker and author, with his quarterly research, The Linneman Letter, the most respected publication in real estate for the past 11 years. The podcast begins with Dr. Michael Roizen defining RealAge as "the actual age of your body as opposed to your calendar age." It is the most accurate predictor of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. The critical factors to maintaining one's health and lowering one's RealAge are stress management (having a purpose and a posse), food choices (portion size and timing), physical activity, unforced errors, sleep and brain health, and supplements. He adds that creatine has been proven to decrease muscle mass loss for people over 65 and improves cognitive function. Around 18 supplements or small molecules have beneficial data. Dr. Peter Linneman takes over the conversation and emphasizes how much control we have over our destinies regardless of genetics. "We control 80% of our DNA settings," he says. This can be done through self-engineering. Dr. Roizen adds that exercise improves blood flow to the brain, prevents dementia, and turns on a new protein in your body that increases your hippocampal size. Whatever exercise you enjoy, as long as you stress a muscle, produces this protein. When comparing different types of exercises, Dr. Roizen says that some people benefit from cardio more than resistance training and vice versa. He adds that we should also consider jumping because it keeps our back disks lubricated, especially if you jump at times of the day when you lose mobility. He reminds everyone to consult a professional before doing it. He says that resistance training encourages muscles to be replaced with stronger ones the next day. Jumping also increases bone accretion and bone strength in one's hips and back. Dr. Roizen lists the five foods that increase aging: simple sugars, added syrups, simple carbohydrates, processed and red meats, and egg yolks. He recommends eating earlier because we become more insulin-resistant later in the day. People who avoid these foods and practice these portions sleep better, have more energy and are not hungry at night. Dr. Linneman gave up red meat in 1983. "Not only do you feel better, but you live better," he says. He discusses "staying healthy until the cavalry gets there." He also emphasizes how we cannot afford as a society not to reboot. The more we take care of ourselves, the more years are added to our lives, and the larger the increase in productivity. "Ten years is a 25% increase in your productive output in life," he says. Dr. Roizen explains how exercise can change the bacteria inside us. Studies have also shown that living healthy lives can knock out bodily mechanisms that don't attack cancer cells. Jim Allison's extensive work has produced KEYTRUDA, the medicine we use today to combat malignant melanoma, with a 63% cure rate. Internally, we can also produce killer T cells that can fight viruses. The strongest thing that knocks out our immune system is stress, so Dr. Roizen recommends doing exercises that don't stress you out, taking multivitamins, and having a dedicated group of friends.

In this episode of Purpose-Driven Wealth, your host, Mo Bina, and Peter Linneman weigh everything about today's uncertain world economic market. During the early take-off of the real estate industry, Peter saw how things developed. With years of insight into the investing world, here, Peter answers whether or not the FED should raise interest rates, how Russia's war on Ukraine benefits the US, his perspective on today's inflation, and so much more. In this episode, Peter talks about: How real estate was back then… Keeping a balanced view of the inflation Yes—the FED should raise interest rates Higher oil prices help the US Peter Linneman's opinion on crypto and so much more! About Peter Linneman:   For nearly 45 years, Dr. Peter Linneman's unique blend of scholarly rigor and practical business insight has won him accolades from around the world, including PREA's prestigious Graaskamp Award for Real Estate Research, Wharton's Zell-Lurie Real Estate Center's Lifetime Achievement Award, Realty Stock Magazine's Special Achievement Award, being named "One of the 25 Most Influential People in Real Estate" by Realtor Magazine and inclusion in The New York Observer's "100 Most Powerful People in New York Real Estate".   After receiving both his Master's and Doctorate in Economics under the tutelage of Nobel Prize winners Milton Friedman, Gary Becker, George Stigler, Ted Schultz, and Jim Heckman, Peter had a distinguished academic career at both The University of Chicago and the  Wharton School of Business at the  University of Pennsylvania.   For 35 years, he was a leading member of Wharton's faculty, serving as the Albert Sussman Professor of Real Estate, Finance, and Public Policy as well as the Founding Chairman of the Real Estate Department and Director of the prestigious Zell-Lurie Real Estate Center. During this time, he was co-editor of The Wharton Real Estate Review.   He has published over 100 scholarly articles, eight editions of the acclaimed book Real Estate Finance and Investments: Risks and Opportunities, and the widely read Linneman Letter quarterly report. He is also the co-creator of the popular and highly regarded Real Estate Finance and Investment Certification course, REFAI.   Peter's long and ongoing business career is highlighted by his roles as Founding Principal of Linneman Associates, LLC, a leading real estate advisory firm, and its affiliates. For more than 40 years, he has advised leading corporations and served on over 20 public and private boards, including serving as Chairman of Rockefeller Center Properties, where he led the successful restructuring and sale of Rockefeller Center in the mid-1990s.   Although retired from Wharton's faculty, Dr. Linneman continues his commitment to education through his SAM Elimu educational charity for orphans and children of extreme poverty in rural Kenya. He has been married for nearly 50 years and remains an exercise enthusiast.   Follow Peter Linneman on:   Website:          https://www.linnemanassociates.com/ Email:              dlinneman@linnemanassociates.com   Connect with Mo Bina on:   Website:          https://www.high-risecapital.com/ Medium:          https://mobina.medium.com/ YouTube:        https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5ISsEKBHlkX7lk9b68SKLA/featured Instagram:       https://www.instagram.com/highrisecapital/   For more information on passive investing in commercial real estate, please check out our free eBook — More Doors, More Profits — by clicking here: https://www.high-risecapital.com/resources-index      

Willy welcomes Peter Linneman. He is the principal of Linneman Associates, KL, Realty, and American Land Fund. Having been a member of the Wharton School of Business's faculty at the University of Pennsylvania for 32 years, he is the Albert Sussman Emeritus Professor of Real Estate, Finance, and Business Public Policy and is the co-founding editor of The Wharton Real Estate Review, publishing 80 articles. He is cited as one of the 25 Most Influential People in Real Estate by Realtor Magazine and one of the 100 Most Powerful People in New York Real estate by the New York Observer. He is a highly sought-after speaker and author, with his quarterly research, The Linneman Letter, the most respected publication in real estate for the past 11 years. The Walker Webcast begins with Peter emphasizing inflation is transitory with supply lagging demand due to 23% of the workforce collecting unemployment insurance. Also, industrial output is only 3% in Q1. Expanding output would be profitable, but most companies are not following through. Oil prices would normalize when production increases. The US remains the largest producer of oil in the world, and the situation of $260 a barrel is unlikely because supply is predicted to adjust. Besides, the US exports weapons and food, which Southeast Asian countries will highly favor due to tensions with China. Peter advises giving the supply 3-4 years of adjustment. The Federal Reserve System would not have control over long-term interest rates as $5 trillion in cash is set aside. He describes how debt should not be the main concern but “getting your money's worth” and continues to say how federal debt is largely misunderstood. The higher the debt is, the bigger the political problems are because debt is owed by US citizens individually, not the state. Tune in to this new episode of the Walker Webcast — The Best Hour in CRE with Peter Linneman, Leading Economist, Former Wharton Professor. ▶️ Key Points In The Webcast: 00:35 Willy welcomes Peter Linneman 03:21 Inflation is transitory, and supply lags demand 08:02 Decrease in oil prices due to supply adjustment 10:33 The US posed to export more weapons, oil, and food 14:21 Why the Fed has no control over long-term interest rates 20:19 Peter's opinion on national debt concerns 26:13 Significant growth exists despite COVID-19 32:06 Stress tests and fear holding banks back from lending 34:33 Lowering debt to cope with interest 38:14 The strength of the US dollar 41:20 Returning to office and productivity vs. profit 45:29 Generation gap and what inflation means in real estate 49:45 The trend of moving to coastal gateway cities 52:57 The economic state under Joe Biden

Peter Linneman is an author of the Linneman Letter, the former Professor of Real Estate, Finance, and Public Policy at the Wharton School of Business. Previously listed as one of the top 25 most influential people in commercial Real Estate. In this episode we talked about: Real Estate Finance and Investments Book Valuation of Real Estate assets Inflation in Real Estate Relationship between corporates and interest rates Peter's thoughts on Real Estate Asset Classes Overview of Retail Real Estate Office Market Future of Commercial Real Estate Industry Advice to Real Estate Newcomers Resources and Lessons Learned Useful links: https://www.linnemanassociates.com Books: Factfulness : Ten Reasons We're Wrong About The World - And Why Things Are Better Than You Think by Hans Rosling Rational Optimist by Matt Ridley Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbkSRLYSojo&t=3s Transcriptions: Jesse (0s): Welcome to the working capital real estate podcast. My name is Jesper galley. And on this show, we discuss all things real estate with investors and experts in a variety of industries that impact real estate. Whether you're looking at your first investment or raising your first fund, join me and let's build that portfolio one square foot at a time. Ladies and gentlemen, my name's Jessica gal, and you're listening to working capital the real estate podcast, a special, special guests today. We just chatted about this. If you don't know him by now, I don't know if you want to know him.   And that is Dr. Peter Lindemann. He's the author of the Lindemann letter, the former professor real estate and finance and public policy at the Wharton school of business. And he was previously listed as one of the top 25, most influential people in commercial real estate. Peter, how you doing?   Peter (49s): I'm doing great. I just got back from Egypt. So my background is a long lasting quality piece of real estate. The Luxor, temple, and luck soar. So good reminder that great real estate lasts like four or 5,000 years.   Jesse (1m 6s): There's a book I'm reading right now and it's on the evolution of skyscrapers and it goes back to the pyramids. It goes back to the, the renderings and the Bible of places that may be existed. Architecturally looks sound, but that is a, it's fantastic to see how we've come from there to where we're at today. And, and, and the drive for humans to build up. Hasn't seemed to wane in any way   Peter (1m 28s): When you see this stuff from three, four or 5,000 years ago. Yo okay. They got it.   Jesse (1m 35s): Yeah. Well, thanks so much for coming on. I, I think this is a real treat for listeners, for anybody watching the video. I'm holding up my real estate and finance and investment book written by the doctor, Peter Lindemann. And I mean, if you're in the real estate industry in any capacity, you will have to have come across this book. I think this, for me, it was second year of the MBA in Toronto and it was just chock full of amazing things. This thing. How long has it been now? When, when was this first published?   Peter (2m 5s): Oh, gee probably 16 years ago or 17 years ago was the first edition it's come to be referred to as the blue Bible. I don't know if that's a good description. It came about very oddly. And then I was teaching my real estate finance investment course for a number of years and I never had a book that I could find that I really liked. So I was teaching my own stuff, but I assigned a book to students because they needed something. So we finally recorded my lectures and after a lot of work and a lot of down additions, that's what came out of it.   Jesse (2m 40s): Yeah. Well, it's great. It's funny. I'd like, you know, you go through a time period where you're like, okay, I got to get rid of these books. Usually the textbooks are the first to go, but I've hung on to this one for a long time, just because I've actually kind of gone back to it. And now that we're at the stage in the career where we're hiring younger individuals, you know, this is something where, you know, they're probably reading in school, but it's definitely something that they can use as a resource.   Peter (3m 4s): Well, and one of the other things nice, is this a nice color? So while it's on your bookshelf, it looks good.   Jesse (3m 10s): Yeah. Yeah. It's not a, it's not that old school. Just topes. Well, you know what? There was a, so we chatted a little bit earlier. You were on a podcast that I recommend a hunter Thompson cashflow connections podcast. And there was something that I was driving in the car, listening to this podcast. And I had to write down because I was just like, you know what? This is it, it was something you said, and it was just an insight. And maybe we could use it kind of as a springboard for this conversation because that conversation did talk a lot about the economics of real estate and where we find ourselves today.   And what you said was demand as loosely described as real GDP growth is up 3% and goods as loosely described by industrial output are down by 1% and services as loosely proxied by employment is 1% short. Demand is up. Supply is down prices. Go up. Can you break that down for us? What we're talking about here?   Peter (4m 7s): Yeah. I mean, I think you broke it down really well. I think this there's very real inflation. The very real inflation started to occur. Let's just do a quick review. 20, 22 years ago, things are shut down. Like a third of the economy is shut. Not just slow shut. And then another third is really slow, but not shut. And then another third is working well, when you shut things, there are ramifications of that.   So for example, two years ago, the price of oil is like five, $10 a barrel. So what do you do with the tar sands? Shut them down. What do you do with the fracking? Shut them down because they aren't even close to break. Even. I'm just taking those as dramatic examples. Then what happens is fortunately the economy I'm talking about the us, but I think the Canadian pretty similar by very late 20 and then through 21 starts growing and it grew faster in its comeback.   Then supply came back. Now that's not surprising when you think about it because things are really awful. Do you expect supply to lead demand? No. Common sense says I wait to see if things are really there before I expand and bring on capacity. So what you've got is real GDP, kind of a crude metric of us demand up 3.2% versus pre COVID not annually.   The two years since COVID began and goods, output is down 1%, as you're saying, and employment is down 1%. And as you said, you don't have to be a genius to figure out supply down 1% from where it was in 2019, demand up three and a half percent prices are up. Now, you're going to have a long discussion of which prices and how much, some more than others. It's that simple.   When will price inflation, moderate, pretty simple. When supply catches up now there's this notion that we have to cool demand. And I asked people, would we be better off if we had no inflation right now? And GDP was also down 1% over those two years, by the way, if real GDP was down 1% and industrial output was down 1% and employment was down 1%. You think we'd have much inflation right now?   No. Would we be better off? Absolutely not. We'd be four and a half percent worse off. So you go, okay. It's a good thing. In fact, no is a good thing. It's a staggeringly amazing thing that after the last two years where we shut down huge plus in the economy, political division, COVID killing millions of people, many more, getting sick absenteeism at work, social unrest, a war now, I mean, name all this stuff that's happening.   And we're three and a half percent or 3.2% larger as an economy than before. That's amazing but left to its own devices. It would have been up about five and a half percent. So demands, not overheated. If, if real GDP was up 10%, then I'd say that's overheated. We can't do that. But we can do five to five and a half percent over a two year period. We've only done three. And at 3.2% under heated, we still need demand to keep driving forward.   We don't want to slow down demand. We want to encourage supply. So if we were going to do policies, the kind of policies we need are, and I'm just giving as an example, I'm not proposing them. Gee, you drill an oil well this year, or you start pumping from a well that isn't pumping. You could write it off in a year, right? You think you get more expiration with that as an incentive, or if you hire somebody net, net, you net, net expand your employment, you get a $4,000 tax credit.   Or if you come back to work after not having work for six, six months, I'm all of these. I'm just making up. As examples, you get a $2,000 tax credit is an individual. You think we'd bring back more late. Do you think we bring back more capacity? And as we did, what would happen to prices they go down. So I don't think this is about demand. It is in some tautological sense. It's about supply has made an amazing recovery from a shutdown, but still legs.   And I don't know how a lot of Terry policy gets us to bring back capacity faster and that's a real activity, so to screen. So that's how I see it. And it has some ramifications for real estate. Your, your construction costs are really going up, right? I mean, that's not an imagination, but on the other hand, so are your rents, so are your property values and you have to take the whole menu.   It's like when you played cards and you got three ACEs and a two and a three, Hey, that's a pretty good hand. You got three ACEs, be happy. Don't don't gripe about gee. I should have forays. Right? All things considered pretty good here.   Jesse (9m 48s): So when it comes to real estate, from the point of view of a couple of variables, there's, there's inflation in the general economy that people just seem to be continuing to worry about time and time. Again, this time it's different as Howard marks will, would, you know, titles each one of his chapters in his latest book. But what I'm curious about is from a real estate perspective, we have the valuation of the real estate asset, and we have those prices in our markets and a lot of other major markets in north America going up. And the concern is that these cap rates get compressed and compressed.   How much lower can these cap rates get compressed? What I'm curious about is it the going to be the valuation that gets out of control or will it be the affordability from a rent perspective that you see as the governing the governor? So to speak on in that dynamic,   Peter (10m 36s): Ultimately it's the fundamentals. And that would go to the mortar. The rent side price is just an outcome, right? Price is a comp bow. You know, the value of a property is the combination of the supply and demand for space, right? Namely income and occupant or retina occupancy and the supply and demand for money to buy income streams, right? And they don't necessarily always align. We're in a period where list supplying demand for space.   Retina occupancy is in quite good shape unless you were in senior housing, unless you're in hospitality, still lagging, unless you're in bad retail, unless you're in office where you don't know if people are coming back to the office. But if you're in apartments and warehouse and good retail, quite good Retin-A occupancy side. Now on the capital side, what's happened is QE one, QE two QE three.   After the financial crisis put unprecedented amounts of money into the system. And you saw coming out in 2014, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, and that money searching for a home pushed down cap rates. And everybody kept saying, oh, cap rates are going to go up cap rates. But I kept saying, no, the weight of money is going to push it down. Now we've even put in a lot more money. In addition into this system, what do you think happens when that money comes out?   When that money comes out, it's got to find a home. So for example, we have record personal cash holdings. We have record corporate cash holdings. We have record dry private equity capitals. We have direct record, dry uncommitted, money, sovereign wealth and pensions vis-a-vis real estate. And we have record unused bank reserves. What do you think happens when they may still be at record levels, but a little lower record levels?   And the answer is that money's going to find a home and it's going to find it buying cash streams. Some of that is on the stock market. Some of it is real estate. Some of it is gold. And I think cap rates go down now, do they go down every day? No. And people say, well, how much lower they can? Can they go? Things can always go 2% lower. This is one of the things that you remember when you learned about penny stocks. And somebody said, how can you lose? They only cost a penny and you'd go, well, they could go to a half a penny, right?   They could go to a quarter of a penny. So how can the cap rate go lower than 3.7? Well, it can go to 3.6. It can go to 3.5. And the reason is the weight of money. So what do I mean by the weight of money? The example I use scope, the thought experiment. We've done a lot of statistical work on this that I won't go into saying, let them in, let her it's other stuff we've written, but here's the thought experiment. Very simple. Suppose I told you a year from now $4 trillion.   I don't care if it's Canadian or us $4 trillion. In addition to the amount already invested is trying to invest in apartment buildings. Okay. Well, you think will happen to cap rates. They'll go down. By the way, you didn't ask what's the economy like you didn't ask. What are interest rates get in, say, as the yield curve inverted, you simply said, well, that kind of money. It's got to find it. It's going to bid up the values bed down, cap rates.   Now flip that thought experiment. Suppose I told you that a year from now a trillion dollars is exiting apartment buildings. By the way, you could apply this to any property category. And you'd say, wow, that's going to be a problem. A trillion dollars trying to get out is going to crush values. And you go, you didn't know what interest rates were when you made that insight. You didn't know what the economy was. The point is the weight of money and we have put unprecedented amounts of money and it hasn't really come out yet to speak of.   And it will, and it will be asset price inflation, not con goes to the services.   Jesse (15m 5s): So question on that, we've had a economist on the show before of maybe on the one side, closer to the Austrian school, the other side, the modern monetary theory MMT. And for listeners, I would just look up both of those to learn a little bit more. But this idea that when the great financial crisis was happening, there was a number of economists that were saying, you're putting money into the economy, like your example, 4 trillion, 5 trillion that is going to cause inflation, no matter what, however, what was happening was it was sitting on balance sheets of banks. It wasn't getting into the economy.   And I always think about Milton Friedman's. I think it was his Nobel part of it was this velocity of money. You can't just go into the Connie. It actually has to move to create some form of inflation. So, so in this example, could you talk a little bit about when you say the 4 trillion in the market, does that mean on bank's balance sheets? Does that mean it's it's circulating, are those necessary conditions?   Peter (15m 60s): Yeah. At this moment, the same thing happened that I happened after , which is the amount of money going into the banks skyrocketed and the velocity with which they used it. So that in the beginning, there was no notable effect on the economy. It just kept the ship steady, if you will. And then the money started coming out slowly. Well actually slowly, just a little more rapidly than it did before.   And remember the modern banking system is not set up to lend you money to buy a Milky way is set up to have a, an investment firm by the company that makes Milky way, right. It's set up for that. And that's why as 2014 through 19 occurred the money chase assets rather than goods and services. Right? And so I think that's, what's going to happen again by enlarge the money, went into the system to keep it afloat in the way you described it, to make sure there was liquidity.   I think it did it well. And now what will happen over the next few years is it will come out. Will all of it come out? No, the velocity dropped, but as some of it starts coming in, when if I put a ton in beyond whatever you have, even if only a thousand pounds of it come out. So a lot of weight, right? A lot of weight, if I put a hundred tons in even of only a thousand pounds come out, it's still a lot of weight.   It's not much compared to what went into your point about velocity, but it's more than would have otherwise been there. And I think it will chase primarily assets now would include single family homes in that as an asset, right? It's a real ass.   Jesse (17m 55s): Now when it comes to the economy itself, well, you know what, let's back up for a second. I did have somebody from my office. They said, you know, you have to ask, I told them I was having you on. And he said, ask him about the relationship between cap rates and interest rates. Cause we talk a lot about that spread in our industry quite a bit basically. Is it a significant piece of what you guys look at over, over the longterm? How is it tracked? You know, and you mentioned earlier that Lindemann letter, we'll put a link up to that as well, but I'm just curious in the work that you do, how important that relationship is.   If at all,   Peter (18m 29s): If there's a relationship, it would be important. However, having studied it, we can't find a relationship other than that. So I'll give you, for example, in, I think it's the, I can't remember if it's 40 years of 45 years, basically the 10 year treasury yield has fallen by 600 basis points. And the cap rate fell by 300. That's hardly one to one. Then if you look at the micro history of that movement, it's all over the place.   That is to say the spread movements in the spread, basically swamp, the general downward decline, right? That'd be the spreads are all over the place over history. Then go one step further and I'll give another example. We looked at it very sophisticated. Statistically, can't find it. Can't find the correlation. Now, by the way, if you said the interest rate 10 year treasury went from 2.3% today to 14% tomorrow, that would probably have an impact, but that's not likely to happen.   If you said it went from 2.3 to 2.9 or 3.2 or back down to 1.6, by the way we saw it go from 1.6 to 2.3, what happened to cap rates? They went down. If anything, why? Because of the way the money, not the caused the interest rates went up and there was this not interest rates going up causing price, cap rates go down. It's just no relationship. I'll give you the other that captures it. If you look at 2007, cap rates were essentially identical to 2019, okay.   2007, 2019 and 2007, the long and the short rate were above 5%. And in 2019, the short rate, what I'm doing from memory was 2.5 or 2.6. And the long rate was 3.2. How can that be? If it's interest rates that are causing them, that interest rates are 200 basis points higher and you still have the same cap rate that should tell you something, right? And in fact, we've seen periods where there's a flight to quality.   When there's a flight to quality interest rates go down and cap rates go up well so much for the step relationship. It just doesn't exist. At least in the relevant parameters, at least that we can find, or that I've seen. One other thing I'd add about interest rates that I kind of tell friends and clients to call them down. Let's assume let's just assume that a year from now, we're sitting here and the long rates at 3.2% and the short rates at 2.5%.   Okay. A lot of interest rate movement upward. Okay. Is that a disaster? No, that's 2019. That's 2019. Those interest rates I just described we 2019, if we'd have had this conversation in 2019, you would have said, how much longer can these low interest rates last, right? You wouldn't be referring to them as high. I'm sure you had that conversation with people.   Right? So to understand that even a big interest rate movement back is simply to 2019, which by the way, most real estate people said, thank you very much. This is pretty cheap money because it is, we then had a fire sale where the government gave money away. If you were willing to borrow. And the biggest borrower of course, was the U S government biggest borrow in the world during that was the us government. They subsidized you as government and they subsidized borrowers.   Well, if they stopped subsidizing borrowers, that hurts far worse. It helps lenders. It helps savers and it hurts debtors, but it's not like one's more noble than the other, a dollar gain by one or lost by the other washes primarily. So I don't get hung up on that balance. Sheets are pretty sane. And so he just had to have a bit of context. And by the way, telling the us government that their money isn't free is not the worst thing we could do because they're like little children.   If Candy's free, the little children are given candy for free. Right. And he said, whoa, you got to slow down. You got to buy, you got to buy that. Right. Slows them down. That's Congress, if you give them or the system, if you give it free money, guess what they use it like it's free. Yeah.   Jesse (23m 27s): So when it comes to, when it comes to like speaking of washes, when it comes to the other asset classes that we deal with in commercial real estate, retail, industrial multi Rez office space, what we had in our office, which was not dissimilar. I think now we're at 85 locations, 85 major markets. And what we had in our headquarters was during COVID. We almost were revenue was down top-line was down, but it was close. And what happened was we had industrial and multi Raz really were the darlings of the industry.   And they, they kind of made up for retailer, like you said, not, you know, grocery store anchored or really good retail. And on the other side, the office, so office and retail was the drag. Those other two asset classes came up and, you know, picked up the slack. Do you see this trend? Continuing? What are your thoughts on, on the various asset class classes moving forward?   Peter (24m 24s): Okay. Real quick multifamily. In December, 2020, I wrote a piece we're entering the golden era of multifamily investing. And it was because spreads were big capital was available to borrow debt was being given away a because of the subsidy rent unoccupancy are good and going to get a lot better. Well, pro that happened in the last 15 months, it's still has legs, but some of the gold is already been harvested.   All right. So it's not like we're in a bad period for multifamily, but we're in a golden period, but a lot of the gold has already been harvested. Retinol, occupancy look good going forward, demographics. So good fundamental under supply of housing, multi, especially single. And so it has good fundamentals. It can be overbuilt, but then you go to industrial and industrial took me a while to figure out, I think I finally figured it out. Normally you would think if GDP I'm using it as a crude measure of demand, if it grew by two and a half percent, we'd need about two and a half percent more warehouse because two and a half percent of more GDP, two and a half percent more boxes, right.   Just kind of crudely. And that had kind of been a good rule of thumb. We always did more precisely, but as a rule of thumb. And then what happened is we'd see two and a half percent of growth of GDP and 4% growth in warehouse and demand. Didn't say, well, that's odd. Can't last. And then the next year you'd see the same thing, 2016, then the next thing in 70 next thing in 1819, you kept seeing, I finally figured out that if you buy that shirt in a store, it takes one third of the warehouse space that if you buy it online, because an online facility has wider aisles, more staging areas, small box handling, rather than big box handling, lot more loading in and out needed a lot more moving around than let's move a box here or there let's move a pallet.   So online sales use about three times the amount of space. Well that me and this two and a half generates four is about the right math. And given the growth of online, that's going to continue for a number of years. So when does the rent and occupancy balance, when we start building for four and a half percent and demand grows it for four and a half percent, well, that's not going to happen for another couple of years. So the rent unoccupancy fundamentals there look pretty good.   Even as we build more and more the real risks, there are two, one, a lot of online sales don't make money. And a lot of retailers realize that during the pandemic. So are they still going to be so aggressive selling online? And if not, it gets closer to the two and a half generates two and a half. And the other is everyone. Somebody wakes up whole bunch of people wake up at Amazon saying, how do we get it from three times, the amount of footage needed for an online sale to two times.   And if they do that, it changes the math. You then go to retail. I've never wanted to own bad retail. I've always wanted to own good retail. If you own good retail, you're constantly having to reinvent it through its entire history. But if it's a great location and you have a core of good retailers, it's a dynamic business. It's a hard grinded out business. I love the dynamics of great retail. And in fact, online sales have been flat for the last year high, but flat while brick retail is getting record sales and as online gets back to trend, then the trend will continue.   And, but I like good retail. Why would I like bad retail? I mean, it just, and I remember Al Talman long time, kind of one of the gods of the industry, certainly one of the gods of retail, I don't know, 30 years ago, 35 years ago said you can't buy bad retail, cheaply enough to make it work. And that's because even if you get it for almost nothing, your rent cannot be cut low enough to change the price of Cheerios.   And if you can't change the price of Cheerios people, aren't going to shop there. And if they're not going to shop there, you don't have good retail. Right. So good retail. I like the outlook for hotels making a comeback. Weakest part is if you're highly dependent on Chinese tourists, kind of a, what a two-star three-star Chinese tourists. They're not coming back for another couple of years. And if that was your sweet zone was playing to them, that that's going to still be, that's going to be the slowest recovery, but it looks like this summer pending another surge, absent another surge, going to be a great summer and into the fall.   Jesse (29m 47s): So before we get to office, I just, I just had a question, a question on retail. You know, whether it's north America in general, whether it's American or, or a Canadian, I think it's 32, 33 square foot of retail per capita. I think something like that, we're not much better in Canada than the U S obviously the European countries have not built as much. Do you see that there's this conversation or has been over the last two years that, you know, a lot of these potentially multi-family or retail, you know, lower tier areas are going to be re developed repurpose whether it's industrial or whether, you know, whether it's multi rise.   Is that something you do see, you know, developers actually looking at that   Peter (30m 28s): It's the pandemic probably sped it up because it pushed so many retailers that we're going to go out of business, out of business. The thing that kept them from shutting, I mean, we looked at doing some of those deals. The problem is you have one tenant paying $2 a foot. So even though they're only selling $114, they actually make profit in the store at, at $2 a foot rent. And that's because the lease was signed 30 years ago with auctions, right.   I'm being extreme, but you get the point and nobody else wants to be there, but I can't buy it, shut it down and build apartments. Or I can't do anything with it. That happens over time. That will happen over time. So, absolutely. And this notion that we have too much retail reminds me, remember, you're old enough. You remember how you would drive by the old industrial areas of America. And you just see these empty warehouses, these empty 1920s, 1910s, 1940s buildings that works counted as empty industrial, but they weren't empty industrial.   They were just empty space. And if you wanted to call them industrial column industrial, but it's not real. If you got rid of the space in retail, that's irrelevant. It was once retail, but it's irrelevant. Just like that old factory that shut in 1972 was irrelevant as industrial space. The amount of footage we has have goes way down. Now, that's not to say it gets to the right amount, but it goes way down in the same way the old industrial did.   That's what we ought to have. We ought to have. If people are really carefully, they've created a new class obsolete, real estate of any type, right? And then you'd see the retail stock go down. You'd see the industrial stock go down. Although the industrial has kind of run its course, those old old buildings have been dealt with over the last 20 years.   Jesse (32m 38s): So the wild card office space we've seen, we track all the, the major markets we have seen pretty much every U S market has come back from a cell phone data that we have into the major cities. We are a little bit slower just because our government policies have been, they are what they are. We'll not get into a political thing here. But what we have seen is a lot of these markets, a huge increase in the percentage of the office market being subleased space.   Now we're starting to see that trend go the other way, starting to come back down and what I, what we've seen in the markets that we are in here is that really good positioned office space in major cities continue. And it looks like the outcome look as positive, potentially not the same for the suburban area. What are your thoughts on, on the office? Just philosophically first and then maybe some of the data that you're seeing.   Peter (33m 33s): Oh, I totally agree with your view. I think people have a fall. People fell in love with this fantasy that I don't have to be work. I don't have to be at work. I don't have to be answerable. I'm self-motivated to work at home. If you're really honest, you have to be pretty highly, self-motivated pretty disciplined. Have a good work environment and be able to control your schedule pretty effectively. Well, there are people like that. Those are the people who are already working at home. Those are the people who are working from the airport.   Those were the people who were working while they were on the road, et cetera. I've well having said that, I'm always amazed that when I fly back from Europe, which I do quite a bit and I'm in business class. So these are quote, a lot of worker types. And when you're flying from Europe to the United States, it's a Workday, right? It's not night. It's not like when you go the other direction and it's night look around and see what people, these business people, these hard working disciplined people are doing as they fly from Europe to the United States about a third sleep and, and, and all of it, about 10% of the others.   Do nothing, read a book or watch a movie. Well, this is a work day for God's sake. So I'm sitting there working away, working away where Kiawah and I realized most people don't have that discipline. I'm not saying I'm great. I'm just saying they don't have that discipline. The other variant of that, that I like to point out to people is I think Ricky is a brilliant writer comedian. And he created the office in many things. We created the office, both the British and us version. And it was built around the notion that it's really hard to get people to work while they're at the office.   If you think it's really hard working while you got them at the office, what do you think Ricky do? Surveys is show working from home would look like, I mean, let's be honest, right? And people would go back now and give you the last reason. I think people go back and it's self preservation. There's tipping points here. And if nobody's at the office, what's the point of week going to the office, right? I mean, if all I'm going to do is go to the office and sit alone and not interact and be around people.   There's no advantage then is a whole lot of people get there and there's advantages. And then as more than the majority are there, I got to be there because otherwise, I don't know what they're saying about me. And I don't know who's getting the plum assignments so it can flip from if nobody's there. There's absolutely no reason to go there. But basically everybody, when I say everybody, I mean, everybody all at 2019, basically everybody's there like it or not.   I got to be there to protect myself. And self-defense is an amazing instinct of our species. And that's what ultimately is going to bring us back.   Jesse (36m 43s): I had a number of people early in the pandemic. They, you know, they knew, I worked in commercial real estate. We specialize for the most part in an office. And they were like, you know, what are your thoughts on the, on, you know, the pandemic. It turns out, you know, the zoom calls all this, you know, we, you can work from home. And my response was always, if you're in my industry and you don't know that this was a secular trend that was happening happening long before, COVID this idea of agile offices, you know, working for, and we needed kind of a kick in the butt to get the technology where we needed.   I don't think you've been kind of paying attention to the market. I think my outlook is that it's, it's a general positive thing, but you know, I'm a, I'm the perfect candidate as a commercial broker that I sh I should be able to work at home all day. No problem. And I can, but like you said, as motivated as I am being around my team, being accountable to them, physically seeing them being in the space, having just a different idea of my TVs over here, you know, versus my couches over here versus I'm in the office. And I'm in a different mode that it seemed like a insignificant thing at the beginning of COVID I've come to realize it's a, it's a crucial part of how I work.   Peter (37m 49s): So one of the things I say to people I'm old, I'm 71. One of the things I say to people is I'm not sure that this zoom wouldn't be better if you couldn't see me, because I'm not that good looking okay. And that's called a conference call now. Yes, it wasn't encrypted. And yes. So I'm not trying to say technology. Hasn't made it better, easier for you to get a lot of viewers all in, at once and so forth and so on versus a conference call.   But we were doing from 2011 to 2019, we were doing quarterly economic updates for our subscribers. That would have like 500 people on old old-fashioned phone hookup. We didn't have big problems. And I didn't get a lot of people saying, oh, I'm going to commit suicide because I didn't see your lovely face. And let's be honest. You're a good looking guy. I'm not, there are a few people we're looking at, but most of us, it doesn't add to the conversation.   Jesse (38m 57s): Yeah. I'll be happy if I look like that at 71, Peter. So don't sell yourself short. We've got about 10 minutes left here. I want to be a little mindful of your time. But before, before we wrap up, maybe you could kind of provide a little bit of insights, crystal ball for us. You know, what you think the future holds for the commercial real estate industry. And maybe you could kind of couch that with this idea of, you know, people talking about the potential next recession, interest rates going up political unrest.   W what are your thoughts?   Peter (39m 29s): Okay. If we don't have a huge re occurrence of some very bad version of COVID, right? 'cause that's, that's, we shut down to varying degrees. Okay. If we don't have NATO somehow dragged into the Ukrainian situation, which could be very violent and, and really escalate. And we don't have a political reaction like we did in 1971, when Nixon introduced wage and price controls, the U S economy is going to do terrific for the next four or 5, 6, 7 years.   Most of the excesses that existed, not saying all most got white washed out of the system in 20 20, 20, 21, it was kind of a reset, kind of a reboot. We got a new base zero, and I think we get 5, 6, 7 years of runway, unless we do something. We, as a species, do something that really is harmful and COVID would fit that the, the NATO being dragged in militarily and wage and price control.   I saw wage and price controls. When I was just out of college, destroy an economy, I mean, overnight destroy an economy, and it would do it. It could, it would do it again. That's the biggest risk I see to the economy, because I think that's more possible than the COVID being huge or the, or the NATO, but they're all possible short of that. The economy is going to do just fine. And I'll give you my reaction. And I've only started saying this.   I don't know if I set it on hunters, which is a true story, by the way, I'll tell you when I'm lying. True story is I had lunch with a friend about three, four weeks ago. And he said, you know, Peter, I follow you and smart and all this stuff. Great, wonderful. But interest rates going to go up and inflation and the divided Congress and Ukraine. And by the way, he went on to name like six sings.   Each of them, very real. It's not like these out of touch. Each of them is a very real chance that our education system is, is, you know, shambles, you know, and so forth. And he said, therefore, I don't see the U S economy has a future. I don't see how we come back from this one. I just don't see how we grow from it. And I said, Bob was named Bob. I said, Bob, anytime in my life, any intelligent person could have laid out six to seven big challenges that existed at that moment.   And the next word shouldn't be there for it should be. And yet we grew and I'll come back to what we just went through. Imagine in 2019, we had this conversation and we were completely Pressy. And you would have said, Peter, we're going to have COVID, we're going to have a shutdown of a third of the economy. We're going to have riots in our cities. We're going to have Congress, can't get along.   We're going to have a highly contentious election. They're going to be in the Capitol building. What have I missed? Right. Inflation oil prices at a hundred and whatever, a barrel, excuse me. And you would've said therefore, in 2019, if you were completely prescient, you just said, therefore, we can't grow. I'd come back to you and say, Jesse grew three and a half percent. In spite of imagine what we do when we only have a short list of those things.   So I think if I had one message, that's it. And therefore, if you're in the real estate business, you're in the business of satisfying that growth, right? That's what our business is when you come down to it, you're in the business. And so, you know, could there be a bad period, then there's been bad periods. The amazing thing is how short they are and how shallow they are. They don't seem short while they're going on. It's like when you have the flu or COVID, it doesn't seem like short when you got, but when you look back, it's a blip and it doesn't seem that minor.   But when it's done, I had two hip replacements and it was not fun as you're doing it. But, you know, in the big scheme of life, there was nothing particularly same with the economy and its downs.   Jesse (44m 22s): I like that in spite of not therefore. And the reason I was laughing is because I remember two, two and a half years ago being in an office and we were talking, it was right at the pinnacle of coworking and we work. And we just said to the other brokers were like, I don't understand how they can continue to do this. And we said, well, barring, any geopolitical event or global pandemic. I swear to God, somebody said this in the meeting, you know, then, you know, we'll see what happens. And then what happens a year later? And it turns out that, you know, we worked a little bit of a different story, but the office market looks like it's coming back.   Coworking looks like it's going through a shift. But I really liked that in spite of that is a glass half full.   Peter (45m 2s): That would be, if I had one message, I'd hope everybody would take one message. It's not, therefore it's in spite of. And by the way, think about your, I was alive when wage and price controls are going on. Nixon resigned in disgrace. This is the person who had been the speaker of the house a couple of years prior to that is suddenly the president. And by the way, you know, we had just finished Vietnam and, and, and inflation is high and taxes are high.   And we grew over, you know, when you kind of, holy cow, this is a powerful machine. It's an insight of machine. Not as therefore machine. Now, obviously if you get a, therefore, if you get a Venezuela, right. That's, that's when it becomes a, therefore we aren't a Venezuela.   Jesse (45m 55s): Yeah. Well, hopefully we're not, we're not tracking the Boulevard here in Canada or the U S but Peter, in terms of, so I want to wrap up, I want to give listeners a way to reach out. Or if, if anybody wants to connect online before we do, we typically ask our guests a couple of questions, I'm going to make these brief. So if you're okay, I'll send these off to you. They're pretty, they're pretty straight forward.   Peter (46m 18s): Okay, great.   Jesse (46m 19s): For younger individuals getting into our industry, what advice would you give to them?   Peter (46m 24s): Reed, Reed, and then whatever you do read more and then whatever you do read. And the only thing I footnote read to include real podcasts like yours, all right. Real thought podcasts, not just, not just political rant podcast, right? Real podcasts. I try to start every morning while I'm doing a little exercise, listening to a podcast outside of my expertise. And so I would include serious podcast in the read category.   You just want to attain knowledge. You want to attain judgment through others. You want to hear what people who are, they may not be smarter than you, but they've got a different set of experiences. They've got a different set of expertise. They're not necessarily right. Get as much of that as you can, and start building your own tapestry of knowledge and insight, which is all these little stuff. I mean, I really need all of these little threads coming together.   Jesse (47m 26s): So the second ties into the first what's a book. I mean, you, you are the author in our industry. What's a book you would recommend for anybody in our industry or outside in general.   Peter (47m 35s): Well, I mean, it's, self-serving that to a young person, it is self-serving, but I would say my book, real estate, finance and investments, if you were to say, this is also self-serving, but I also believe it in they're going to be dramatic changes in how long people live. So Albert Ratner and Mike Rosen, and I have a book coming out in September called degrade age reboot, and it's going to change. It's going to change. I love to come back as it comes out and talk to you with Dr.   Mike. But when it comes out, it will give you insights on what's going on in modern medicine and what it means for our society. And I give you just a snippet, right? A very tiny little snippet. Imagine genetic engineering could eliminate fat, excess fat. Okay. First of all, medical expenditures would go way down healthcare expenditures. We'd have some number like two to $3 trillion more to spend on other stuff.   What do you want to spend it on? Not to mention that. And I'm just being simple on that one. And there's hundreds of you on that one. Gee, I'd want to short WeightWatchers and go long. And Haagen-Dazs because of anything I eat doesn't cause fat because of the genetic engineering, then bring it on Haagen dies. Right? So, I mean, there's so that now, if you said to me a great book that any there's two books that I would recommend that anybody thoughtful and intelligent, I think should be aware of.   One is called fat fullness, F a C T F U L N ESS, by Hans roster. He's now deceased. That's about three years old. And it's an amazing book that talks about how our images of the world are locked in and not reflective of reality. And the reality is generally much better than we think. And the other along the similar lines, but very different is the rational optimist by Matthew Ridley.   And that's probably about eight, nine years old. But the theme of it is the typical person watching this lives massively better than the king of France, you know, in the 14 hundreds. And you go, wow. You know, I live better than the person who resided in Versailles and he gives much more coaching examples. The other thing I would do, I was a big Hans Rosling fan.   There's an amazing YouTube about four minutes long. And if you put in Han's Rosslyn, F R O S L I N G the world growth explained in four minutes or something like that, it's a four minute video that will leave you feeling good at the end.   Jesse (50m 36s): Yeah. We'll put a link up to that. I think I've seen this one before,   Peter (50m 41s): So, but those would be the two books I would kind of think everybody could read.   Jesse (50m 46s): That's great. Okay. Peter, we're at the end here. Our last quick question, I ask every guest, it's usually more interesting with the, the older guests first car make and model.   Peter (50m 55s): Well, wait, first of all, you asking me, I'm not an old guy. Car was a 19 staff and the American motors corporation, green grim.   Jesse (51m 9s): There's a cottage industry. Now of guys collecting those cars, the gremlins.   Peter (51m 13s): Yeah. Mine fell apart. At some point I got, but I got a good, I don't know, eight years out of it, or seven years out of it, something like that seven years, I guess I got out. So it works.   Jesse (51m 24s): Peter. I really will have to have you back on. I really appreciate the, the conversation today for, for any listeners, aside from the website and the Lindemann letter. Is there any other place that you would kind of point them to online?   Peter (51m 37s): That would be the main place go to Lindemann and associates. You've got links to all the stuff we do there, including our charity, our education charity in Kenya, which is a big part of my wife's denies life. And I take a look at that. It's pretty amazing what these kids do. It's hard. It lifts your spirits and keeps you positive. But yeah, that was just going to lend them and associates you'll you'll find us and feel free to get in touch. Thank you.   Jesse (52m 6s): My guest today has been Peter Lindemann, Peter, thanks for being part of working capital.   Peter (52m 9s): My pleasure.   Jesse (52m 18s): Thank you so much for listening to working capital the real estate podcast. I'm your host, Jesse for galley. If you liked the episode, head on to iTunes and leave us a five star review and share on social media, it really helps us out. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me on Instagram, Jesse for galley, F R a G a L E, have a good one. Take care.   ...      

Justin sits down with Peter Linneman of Linneman Associates to discuss how supply and demand dynamic effect industrial real estate. Peter explains how demand continues to outrun supply and how the upward trend of online sales plays a role. Peter offers a quarterly Linneman Letter that covers the current economy, real estate topics and provides insight based on data.   Quarterly Linneman Letter – 1:15 Industrial demand – 7:00 Supply and demand effecting warehouse space – 8:15 Demand is exceeding supply in industrial – 14:40 Demand factor improving by automation – 19:45 The shift of real estate professionalism – 21:00 The economy normalizing will take time – 26:00 Inflation signaling the need of supply – 30:00 2022 and 2023 are the years of normalization – 32:00     Episode Resources Connect with Peter Linneman  https://www.linnemanassociates.com/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/peterlinneman/ https://twitter.com/P_Linneman   Connect with Justin Smith https://smithcre.com/  https://www.lee-associates.com/  JBSmith@LeeIrvine.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/justinbsmith  

Economics is the foundation on which the real estate sector stands. Investors who don't understand this reality will make incorrect decisions that will either put their capital at risk or cause them to spend too much time on the sidelines. Neither of these is an option for investors who are focused on protecting and growing their wealth. Today, we are joined by Dr. Peter Linneman, the author of the Linneman Letter, and the former Professor of Real Estate, Finance, and Public Policy at the Wharton School of Business. He was previously listed as one of the 25 most influential people in commercial real estate by Realtor Magazine. In this episode, we're going to discuss… Why Peter was so bullish on multifamily during 2020-2021, and his outlook on the sector for 2022-2025 What data points Peter uses to make the case that the health of the consumer is at, or nearing, all-time highs What leading indicators he is keeping an eye on which would suggest a recession is coming, and what that might mean for real estate investors Dr. Peter Linneman has been referred to me several times by listeners of this program, so I'm sure I don't have to convince you to tune in to this special episode. Take Control, Hunter Thompson Resources mentioned in the podcast: 1. The Linneman Letter Interested in investing in ATMs? Check out our webinar.   Please note that investing in private placement securities entails a high degree of risk, including illiquidity of the investment and loss of principal. Please refer to the subscription agreement for a discussion of risk factors. Tired of scrambling for capital?  Check out our new FREE webinar -  How to Ensure You Never Scramble for Capital Again (The 3 Capital-Raising Secrets). Click Here to register.   CFC Podcast Facebook Group

On this Walker Webcast, Willy Walker is joined by Dr. Peter Linneman. For over 40 years, Dr. Linneman's unique blend of scholarly rigor and practical business insight has earned him accolades from around the world. He has studied under multiple Nobel Prize winners, holds both a Master's and Doctorate in Economics after a distinguished academic career at both The University of Chicago and the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania, and was a leading member of Wharton's faculty, serving as the Albert Sussman Professor of Real Estate, Finance, and Public Policy for 35 years. He has published over 100 scholarly articles, four editions of the acclaimed book, “Real Estate Finance and Investments: Risks and Opportunities,” and the widely-read Linneman Letter quarterly report. Dr. Linneman's long and ongoing business career is highlighted by his roles as Founding Principal of Linneman Associates, LLC, a leading real estate advisory firm; CEO of American Land Fund; and CEO of KL Realty. For more than 35 years he has advised leading corporations and has served on over 20 public and private boards, including serving as Chairman of Rockefeller Center Properties, where he led the successful restructuring and sale of Rockefeller Center in the mid-1990s. This Walker Webcast is a highly anticipated episode as we open 2022 with Dr. Peter Linneman, who shares his thoughtful insights and projections that have been amazingly prescient. In this episode, we will deep dive into the reviews he shares in The Linneman Letter quarterly report, highlighting highly-discussed economic topics you should know in 2022. Hear Dr. Linneman's breakdown of his quarterly report in this segment of the Walker Webcast — The Best Hour in CRE with Dr. Peter Linneman, Founding Principal of Linneman Associates. Key points covered in this episode: [1:57] Willy welcomes Dr. Peter Linneman. What predictions did he hit and miss from 2020 to 2021? What predictions does he have moving forward? [13:25] Dr. Linneman discusses how economic dynamism is missing in the marketplace. [18:05] Willy and Dr. Linneman talk about how to get people back to work. [19:58] Two enormous implications in real estate are mentioned: 2021 personal annual interest income and yield-starved consumers. [23:45] Willy reads the Linneman letter on how banks are awash with liquidity and discusses the effects on cap rates and bond yields. [31:29] In a rising interest rate environment with the banks fully overfunded, owning bank stocks is a good place to be. [32:37] Brick retail is not dead; it is thriving. Tune in to hear the retail numbers for November compared to E-Commerce. [36:46] The oil market and projections for the cost of crude over the next two to three years with this supply and demand imbalance coming into our economy. [45:21] Willy talks about the housing market, affordability and how it affects home builders. [50:24] What is Dr. Peter seeing in the office and retail market? Will 80% of people be back in the office by June, or is it wildly optimistic? [55:22] Where is the smart money going right now? [57:43] The current state of international travel and ideal places to visit according to Peter. Check out our previous Walker Webcasts: » Full playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL_QkMqEzOkzNmWUe9kpfRJ4213jIh6LNk

In this episode, Paul speaks to Dr. Peter Linneman about the state of the US Economy. They go in-depth about his path into economics, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in work dynamics and future opportunities in real estate.About our guest:Peter is Principal at Linneman Associates; CEO of the American Land Fund; and an Emeritus Professor and Founding Chairman of The Wharton School's Real Estate Department at the University of Pennsylvania. He is also the author of The Linneman Letter, a “one-stop-shop” quarterly publication for commercial real estate investors, as well as anybody seeking to understand today's ever-changing economic and geo-political environment.Peter's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peterlinneman/ Peter's Twitter: https://twitter.com/P_Linneman “The Linneman Letter”:https://www.linnemanassociates.com/the-linneman-letter Peter's book “Real Estate Finance and Investments: Risks and Opportunities”:https://www.linnemanassociates.com/real-estate-finance-textbook NEW Book“The Great Age Reboot” by Michael F. Roizen, M.D. with Peter Linneman & Albert Ratnerhttps://www.amazon.com/Great-Age-Reboot-Cracking-Longevity/dp/1426221517 Peter's book recommendations: "The rational optimist" by Matt Ridleyhttps://www.rationaloptimist.com/ "Free to Choose: A Personal Statement" by Milton Friedmanhttps://www.amazon.com/Free-Choose-Statement-Milton-Friedman/dp/0156334607 YouTube Series: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLXD32Z5YYifX8J3Kp-WBA9Ongy0p1C1u9 "Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters" by Steven E. Kooninhttps://www.amazon.com/Unsettled-Climate-Science-Doesnt-Matters/dp/B0948623S1 "False Alarm" by Bjørn Lomborghttps://www.amazon.com/False-Alarm-Climate-Change-Trillions/dp/1541647467 Disclaimer: This real estate podcast is for informational and educational purposes only, and does not imply suitability. The views and opinions expressed by the presenters are their own. The information is not intended as investment advice.For any inquiries or comments, you can reach us as info@indepthrealestate.com.

On this episode, Dr. Peter Linneman founding principle of Linnemann Associates and the founding chairman of The Wharton Real Estate Department discusses the health of the economy, what real estate sectors to look into, and the economic data he's tracking.For nearly four decades, Dr. Peter Linneman has been a critical influence in driving the professionalization of real estate capital markets and the commercial real estate industry. Thousands of global and regional real estate investment professionals look to Linneman Associates, LLC's insights each quarter through subscriptions to The Linneman Letter.About Linneman Associates, LLCLinneman Associates, LLC is a premier consulting and research firm, specializing in commercial real estate investment strategy. LinksReal Estate Finance Textbook, click hereTo learn more about Linneman Associates, click here

Peter Linneman is a multi-award-winning economist who combines practical business insight and academic excellence has won him accolades, such as PREA's prestigious Graaskamp Award for Real Estate Research, and Wharton's Zell-Lurie Real Estate Center's Lifetime Achievement Award. He founded Linneman Associates, a leading real estate advisory firm, and currently serves as CEO of American Land Fund and CEO of KL Realty and has advised leading corporations and sat on numerous public and private boards. Peter's academic career centered around The University of Chicago and the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania, his book Real Estate Finance and Investments: Risks and Opportunities in now on it's fourth edition, and he still distributes the Linneman Letter report.   In this episode, Realty Mogul's CEO, Jilliene Helman, and Dr. Peter Linneman compare this economic slowdown and the recession of 2008/09. Peter gives his opinion from the economist's perspective on whether the cure has proved worse than the disease and the reasoning behind his thoughts. He also shares his tips on working out when it's time to jump back into the market, how to create your own barometer, and what unusual data sets you can leverage to be successful in real estate investing.   "Treading water is very different to making progress and swimming forward. Holding a business together remotely is do-able, building a business remotely is pretty close to impossible." - Dr. Peter Linneman   This week on The Reality Mogul Podcast:  Peter's thoughts on adaptations we have to make regarding COVID-19 Peter's predictions for when we are going to come out of the recession How the virus will impact unemployment in the short and long term What the adjusted unemployment percentage is likely to look like by the end of 2021 The efficacy of models in predicting the shape of the recovery Thoughts on the stimulus and its political impact The rate of Inflation and the impact on real estate Whether this is the start of the great de-organization? What impact does the remote working trend have on the realty market   Connect with Peter Linneman: Linneman Associates website Linneman Associates on Facebook Peter Linneman on LinkedIn Peter Linneman on Twitter   Connect with Realty Mogul: Realty Mogul Website Realty Mogul on LinkedIn Realty Mogul on Instagram Realty Mogul on Facebook Realty Mogul on Twitter        

For over 40 years, Dr. Peter Linneman's unique blend of scholarly rigor and practical business insight has won him accolades from around the world, including PREA's prestigious Graaskamp Award for Real Estate Research, Wharton's Zell-Lurie Real Estate Center's Lifetime Achievement Award, Realty Stock Magazine's Special Achievement Award, being named "One of the 25 Most Influential People in Real Estate" by Realtor Magazine and inclusion in The New York Observer's "100 Most Powerful People in New York Real Estate".​After receiving both his Masters and Doctorate in Economics under the tutelage of Nobel Prize winners Milton Friedman, Gary Becker, George Stigler, Ted Schultz and Jim Heckman, Peter had a distinguished academic career at both The University of Chicago and the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. For 35 years, he was a leading member of Wharton's faculty, serving as the Albert Sussman Professor of Real Estate, Finance and Public Policy as well as the Founding Chairman of the Real Estate Department and Director of the prestigious Zell-Lurie Real Estate Center. During this time, he was co-editor of The Wharton Real Estate Review. In addition, he published over 100 scholarly articles, four editions of the acclaimed book Real Estate Finance and Investments: Risks and Opportunities, and the widely read Linneman Letter quarterly report.​Peter's long and ongoing business career is highlighted by his roles as Founding Principal of Linneman Associates, a leading real estate advisory firm; CEO of American Land Fund; and CEO of KL Realty. For more than 35 years, he has advised leading corporations and served on over 20 public and private boards, including serving as Chairman of Rockefeller Center Properties, where he led the successful restructuring and sale of Rockefeller Center in the mid-1990s.Although retired from Wharton's faculty, Dr. Linneman continues his commitment to education through his Save A Mind, Give A Choice educational charity for orphans and children of extreme poverty in rural Kenya. He has been married for over 40 years and is an exercise enthusiast.