Lagniappe

This week, we look back on an interesting/memorable month as the market experiences a wall of worry, reflecting optimism despite economic disruptions. We look at historical data showing that investing at market tops can still yield positive returns over time. We also advise on why maintaining cash reserves and fixed income is crucial for navigating market volatility, especially for retirees. We'll then examine the rumors about the dollar, showing why it remains strong and is unlikely to lose its reserve currency status in the near term, and we look at international markets' performance, highlighting the importance of diversification in investment portfolios. Finally, we discuss the correlation between stocks and bonds and why investors should focus on long-term growth rather than short-term market fluctuations.  Key Takeaways [0:19] - Climbing the wall of worry [06:12] - What if the market is wrong? [09:43] - The Dollar's reserve status and global implications [17:31] - Individual stocks & a historical perspective on stock and bond correlation View Transcript Links Empty shelves are coming, Apollo economist says — and so is a 'voluntary' recession What if you only invested at market tops? The Dollar Endures: Strength, Stability, and Global Trust Warren Buffett's net worth grows by $24B in 2025 while $5T vanishes from US markets Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

We're back from Spring Break, and…there's a lot to catch up on! We dive right into the market volatility driven by tariff-related news and its implications for the economy. We'll discuss the overwhelming need for certainty, the issues that come with a lack of trade with China, how paring back tariffs would be a business tailwind, and the Fed's plan to get back to business as usual. We'll also examine the decoupling of Bitcoin and gold from traditional asset classes and draw parallels to similar, past economic events. Key Takeaways [0:17] - Logistics and economic consequences of tariffs [07:05] - The need for certainty [14:59] - Dollar value, bond yields, bitcoin, and gold [21:02] - Historical parallels View Transcript Links Ryan Peterson: Ocean container bookings from China to the United States are down over 60% industry-wide The Long View: Cullen Roche - What Tariffs Mean for Your Portfolio WSJ: Wealthy buyers are backing out of multimillion-dollar home deals Election betting odds Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

There's only one thing to talk about this week. We discuss the recent volatility surrounding tariffs and the implications for investors. We explore historical trends during periods of uncertainty, the opportunities that arise in fixed income investments, and the potential impact of economic uncertainty on consumer behavior. Weeks like this emphasize the importance of financial planning and present the opportunity to reassess investment strategies. Key Takeaways [0:17] - Recapping the last few days post-Liberation Day [04:20] - This has allowed time to assess your current portfolio allocation [07:35] - Fixed income offered a gift [10:20] - What will the ramifications be from the past week? [14:33] - Financial planning in times of stress View Transcript Links Detrick: Adding Liberation Day to a chart of Dow Jones + geopolitical events since 1900 doesn't look so bad Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

In the aftermath of “Liberation Day”, we discuss the market reactions to the tariffs announced by the Trump administration, the implications for economic growth, and the importance of diversification in investment strategies. They analyze the current state of the markets, the fear index, and the potential effects of interest rate changes. The discussion emphasizes the need for investors to navigate volatility and maintain a disciplined approach to investing. Key Takeaways [0:17] - Post Liberation Day fallout [04:17] - Understanding trade deficits, reciprocity, and tariff implications [06:23] - Can the yet-to-be announced tax and interest rate policy balance the risk? [08:34] - Will there be a walk-back? [09:39] - Looking at the Trump admin's goal of pushing down interest rates [11:52] - Reviewing Q1 and continuing to push for diversification View Transcript Links CNN Fear and Greed Index Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Greg and Doug Stokes discuss a first quarter filled with volatility, focusing on the performance of the Magnificent 7 companies and how market corrections are normal and often lead to better valuations. We'll analyze consumer sentiment and reflect on historical comparisons to previous market corrections. We'll also discuss why we welcome periodic volatility, allowing investors time to assess their risk and diversification levels.  Key Takeaways [0:17] - Wrapping up a choppy Q1 [02:52] - The Mag 7 is down 15% so far this year [06:23] - Is this reminiscent of the Vibecession? [09:17] - Or does it feel like Q4 2018? [14:50] - The hype and demand bubbles of AI [18:37] - Why we welcome periods of volatility View Transcript Links CNN Fear and Greed Index Allianz Life Study Finds Inflation and Tariffs Increasingly Worrying Americans University of Michigan's closely watched Survey of Consumers Microsoft abandons data center projects Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Coming off of Fed Day, we'll talk about market reactions and the implications for inflation and interest rates. We also explore bond market dynamics, shifts in global market trends, and the resurgence of European markets. We then delve into the housing market insights, from what's happening here locally in New Orleans to migration trends across various states, highlighting the unique challenges and opportunities in the current economic environment. Key Takeaways [0:17] - Fed Day reactions and why we're not seeing stagflation  [04:20] - Interest rates and bond market dynamics [8:06] - Shifts in global market trends [09:17] - What spot shipping rates mean for inflation [13:33] - The Mag 7 & why diversification is working [16:41] - Housing market and U.S. migration trends View Transcript Links Truflation MSCI Index performance Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF Zillow downgrades its 2025 home price forecast Time Out ranks New Orleans as World's Best Food City Uhaul growth states Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

In a week of sharp decline, we'll discuss why market corrections are not unusual, volatility is expected, and diversified long-term strategies are key to managing risk. We'll also talk about the recession narrative, analyze inflation/rate trends, and look at what levers the Fed can pull. We wrap up with a conversation on government efficiency initiatives and what they mean for the job market and the private sector. Key Takeaways [01:10] - Understanding market corrections [05:47] - Recession narratives and what the Fed can do [10:16] - Diversification works [11:52] - Updated outlook on inflation and rates [16:00] - Eliminating gov't spending + reallocating to the private sector [21:06] - Musk, Tesla, and Magnificent 7 performance View Transcript Links JP Morgan: Average intra-year decline = ~14% Historic S&P 500 corrections since 1965 Fastest market corrections since 1950 Market-implied US recession probability in the next year.. 20% 25% of jobs added in the US economy over the past two years were government jobs, up from 5% in 2021 and 7% in 2022 Unemployment filings up 15% in DMV Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

With the news swirling about S&P 500 declines, we dig into why market corrections are a normal part of financial cycles and why diversification is proving effective in the current environment. We'll also dig into the performance of international markets, interest rate predictions, inflation vs. stagnation arguments, tariffs, jobs, and more. Key Takeaways [00:17] - What's going on with the market correction and are we concerned? [04:51] - Corrections happen as part of a normal functioning market [08:40] - A narrative change on the rate-cutting equation [10:16] - Inflation and stagflation [12:35] - Jobs report, tariffs, and market predictors View Transcript Links Average S&P 500 declines per year About ⅓ of the 5%+ selloffs are blips on the radar Tom Lee: buy now, huge rally coming 2025 returns by country 59% of investors expect stagflation. But stagflation is avoided 95% of the time. Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Although we're only 3-4% off market highs, investor sentiment has recently turned quite bearish, especially given a turbulent macro environment. We'll look back on the first two months of the year, analyzing the fluctuations in the S&P 500, crypto, global tensions, and the reversal of inflation narratives. We'll also examine why it feels like everything you thought you'd be bullish about under a Trump presidency, you should have been bearish about, and vice versa. Before we head out to more parades, we'll finish by talking about the unknowns in the market and why it's important to maintain a sound strategy that's relative to your particular situation and your goals Key Takeaways [00:17] - Why we're seeing/hearing so much negative market sentiment [06:42] - China, Crypto, Trump & the financial theme for the first two months of 2025 [10:20] - Ukraine, Russia, & how the market is reacting to geopolitical tensions [15:05] - The unknown is the major risk to the market  View Transcript Links CNN Fear & Greed Index Roche: Trump policies are disinflationary Strazza: I'm Bearish Crypto Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Throw me something, mister! It's Mardi Gras time in New Orleans, and we'll talk about what that means for the city's culture and what a great family-friendly time it is. We then transition to a broader discussion on the surprising resilience of the Chinese economy and why a positive January and February often predict a strong year ahead. The conversation shifts to the cryptocurrency market, particularly meme coins, and the potential risks involved. We also hit on the demographic challenges in Europe and how these affect economic growth. Finally, we delve into the AI boom and who benefits from overhyped markets. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Excitement for Mardi Gras here in New Orleans [04:00] - Stock market highs + the Chinese economy's unexpected resilience [07:23] - Are we looking at back-to-back-to-back 20%+ years? [10:00] - The riskiness of Crypto and Meme Coins [14:40] - Demographic challenges in Europe may hinder economic growth [20:05] - AI, cannabis, and who benefits from overhyped markets View Transcript Links Faber: Think differently about global diversification Morgan Stanley Drops Bearish China Stocks Call, Lifts Target 22% Detrick: A Higher January & February Could Mean the Bull Continues Mapped: Europe's Population Crash Legalized pot turned out to be a stunningly horrible investment Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

We begin this week by discussing the two biggest stories: inflation and tariffs. We'll also delve into the performance of retail stocks, the influence of GLP-1 medications on fast food sales, and the performance of small caps and international markets. We'll then dive into how shelter continues to drive CPI numbers and the contrasting dynamics of commercial and residential real estate markets. Key Takeaways [02:25] - Tariff rates on other countries vs. those on the U.S. [04:00] - The CPI story remains *mostly* about shelter [07:23] - Counter-narratives to what's going to happen with a Trump presidency [08:43] - The impact of GLP-1 medications on fast food [12:58] - Small caps and International market performance [12:08] - Current and future outlook on real estate markets View Transcript Links Weighted average effective tariff rates  Roche: CPI in 60 seconds No more cuts.. barring a recession Small Caps are undervalued relative to the S&P 500 As buyers fail to show up, more homes are being pulled from sale Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Our daily commutes include celebrity sightings these days which means it's Super Bowl time in New Orleans. We'll discuss the big game and why the Big Easy is such a great host. We'll also give our analysis of market volatility given the recent jobs report, political movement, and AI developments. We'll finish with the importance of long-term investment strategies, and the psychological factors such as recency bias that influence investor behavior. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Celebrity sightings in New Orleans [04:06] - Nola is great at hosting Super Bowls + bad things happen in the markets when the Eagles win [06:46] - Inflationary concerns, truflation and the impact of housing [10:26] - Chinese stocks + American AI spend [14:47] - The short-termism of social media and market prognosticators [18:25] - Why we believe in long-term strategies with a diversified portfolio View Transcript Links January Jobs Report Sean Payton loves the Superdome and New Orleans as a host A market-related reason to root for the Chiefs Goldman's Core Inflation Tracker is smack-dab at the Fed's 2% target Truflation New Tenant Rents declined on a YoY basis for the first time since 2Q10 From 1900-2020, in how many decades did US stocks outperform a global equal weight? Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Episode 150! As we look out our window watching New Orleans prepare and improve before the Super Bowl, we delve into the recent turmoil in the AI market, particularly the impact of a Chinese company's AI announcement on major tech stocks like Nvidia and Broadcom. Our discussion emphasizes the importance of market expectations and the potential for volatility in tech stocks, drawing parallels to past large shifts like the beginning of the Internet age. Key Takeaways [00:17] - New Orleans prepares for the Super Bowl [05:10] - Empathizing with Bills fans over NFL referees [08:07] - AI market volatility due to new competitors [10:18] - Replication vs. innovation, China/DeepSeek's AI Models [17:07] - Market breadth after tech's Black Monday [18:50] - Expectations vs. reality for tech stocks View Transcript Links Nvidia just had the largest single-day market cap decrease in stock market history AI disruption from DeepSeek How far tech stocks are away from all-time highs European banks have outperformed the Mag 7 over the past two years Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

We're snowed in! We'll discuss our experiences during a once-in-a-lifetime snow in New Orleans, analyze market reactions to Trump's presidency, and give prudent investment approaches as experts try to “predict corrections”. Plus NFL Championship weekend predictions. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Making memories during a rare snow in New Orleans [05:35] - Market reactions to Trump's inauguration [08:00] - Expectations as we transition from Biden to Trump terms [11:40] - Can we take anything from Trump's first term as we head into his second? [17:40] - NFL Playoff predictions View Transcript Links Satellite images of snow in the Deep South Baton Rouge, LA has received 2x snowfall as Anchorage, AK Peter Lynch on anticipating corrections Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Greg and Doug continue last week's conversation on bond market intrigue so far in 2025. They explore the implications of rising interest rates on bonds and the attractiveness of fixed-income investments compared to equities. The conversation also touches on changing consumer behaviors, particularly with alcohol consumption, and how these trends may affect related markets/investments. Key Takeaways [00:17] - The bond market continues to interest us most in 2025 [07:23] - How bonds are affecting asset and pension managers [13:19] - Stocks vs. bonds long-term [15:02] - Trends in alcohol consumption + social behaviors and market implications View Transcript Links 20-year investment grade corporate bonds are yielding 6.22% Goldman's call is 3% annualized over the next decade Valuation is not a timing tool, but it is an expectation tool Harry Caray's drinking diary Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Doug and Greg begin with reflections on recent tragedies, including a terrorist attack in New Orleans and the devastating wildfires in California. They discuss the significant movements in the bond market, the ongoing housing affordability crisis, and the implications of rising interest rates and inflation. The conversation also touches on the performance of international markets and the resilience of the American economy, highlighting the importance of innovation and risk-taking in driving economic growth.

Greg and Doug welcome back Santiago Solanet to discuss the current economic landscape of Argentina following the election of Javier Milei, nicknamed the Chainsaw President. They explore the historical context of Argentina's financial struggles, the impact of Milei's presidency, and the potential for investment opportunities. Santiago provides insights into the shift from socialist policies to economic reform, the challenges ahead for Milei's administration, and how he's potentially providing a playbook for the Trump administration. Santiago compares Argentina to the rest of Latin America and speaks on the local hope and optimism surrounding Argentina's future as it navigates its complex political and economic landscape. Key Takeaways [00:17] - The impact of Javier Milei's presidency [05:08] - Historical context of Argentina's economic struggles [12:51] - The shift from socialism to economic reform [17:00] - The upside of Argentine investment opportunities [23:23] - Incredible oil production + the quest for fiscal surplus [27:06] - Why an angry electorate chose a chainsaw president [31:15] - Upcoming challenges and plans for Milei's administration [32:47] - Are Trump/Musk following Milei's playbook? [37:10] - Comparing Argentina to the rest of Latin America View Transcript Links Understanding Argentinian Markets with Santiago Solanet Argentina's economy exits recession in milestone for Javier Milei Argentina's Vaca Muerta could pump 1 million barrels per day of crude by 2030 Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

After a brief chat about Elf on the Shelf and TV recommendations, we dive into the current state of the markets to find pockets of value when valuations can feel stretched. We'll also discuss the concentration of returns in the S&P 500 and the continuing bullish sentiment among investors. With Elon Musk at the forefront, we highlight America's tech dominance, particularly in data centers and innovation, and share our excitement for the future of technology and investment opportunities. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Elf on the Shelf + TV recs [01:53] - Finding pockets of market value [05:34] - The concentration of S&P 500 returns [08:38] - The market effect of quantum computing [11:03] - Bullish signals + market corrections [15:48] - Elon's wealth + tech initiatives  [21:22] - Excitement for the future View Transcript Links Vanguard: Risk Asset valuations are stretched, but opportunities exist. Nomura: Why the S&P is up past two weeks Super bullish Bank of America Fund Manager survey BofA: Just 31% of stocks in the S&P 500 are outperforming the index in 2024 Elon Musk is now Warren Buffet Richer than Jeff Bezos Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

This week, we'll begin our year-in-review as the analyst forecasts for 2025 start rolling in. We'll balance those predictions by examining the volatility of the S&P 500 and the market's historical performance. We'll also continue our cryptocurrency conversation by considering it a speculative asset similar to gold while so much of it has no utility. We end with a historical look at markets in year 1 of presidential terms and how that data, coupled with the earnings variable, may predict a slight pullback. Key Takeaways [00:17] - It's analysts' prediction season [02:56] - Earnings are the big variable in forecasting [10:48] - Treating Bitcoin as a speculative asset similar to gold [13:19] - Many new cryptocurrencies are scammy and lack utility [19:08] - Why history tells us there could be a pullback in 2025  View Transcript Links Roche: The average gain in an up year for the stock market since 1928 is +21%. The average loss in a down year in that same timeframe was -13%. Ro: 22 eye-catching charts as we consider what's next for the stock market Factset Earnings Insight Hedgeye: Fartcoin's market cap is now greater than 38% of all American publicly-traded companies. Tulipmania: About the Dutch Tulip Bulb Market Bubble Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

We're bouncing around this week, starting with the recent surge in Bitcoin and market enthusiasm, although maybe not market-wide. We'll analyze valuations and dig into why the S&P 500's growth is largely driven by earnings and dividends. The conversation shifts to the comparison between US and international markets, highlighting the challenges faced by European economies and the growing wealth disparity between the US and Europe. We'll conclude with a historic market run and what history says that could mean for the future. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Enthusiasm is evident, but it's not market-wide [06:30] - Why this isn't a bubble [09:16] - U.S. business environment allows our markets to outperform international [16:28] - Wealth disparity between the US and Europe is widening [21:15] - S&P 500 is poised for its second positive 20% year in a row View Transcript Links Detrick: S&P 500 up 98% since the end of 2019, but many think we are in a bubble. Republicans and Democrats have starkly different inflation expectations Russell 2000 is up 10% in the last month France is up 9% in the last 24 years The S&P 500 being up >20% for two consecutive years has only happened four times in the past 150 years. Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Doug and Greg Stokes begin this week's discussion with NVIDIA's recent earnings report, the ongoing AI race, and the implications of new data centers. They explore the characteristics of market bubbles, particularly in the context of AI and cryptocurrency, and analyze the performance of small-cap stocks versus large-cap tech. The conversation also touches on interest rates, economic policies, tariffs, and international markets. Key Takeaways [00:17] - NVIDIA Earnings + data center construction [04:07] - Talking AI and bubbles [10:30] - Crypto remains volatile [16:49] - Small-caps and International Markets [21:30] - Inflation, tariffs, and the market's aftermath election reaction View Transcript Links Which asset has the best bubble potential? AI Investments Are Booming, but Venture-Firm Profits Are at a Historic Low Crypto Entrepreneur Bought a Duct-Tape Banana for $6.2 Million. He Plans to Eat It—and Also Send It to Space. Detrick: Most might not realize that over the past year small caps have done better than the QQQ. Roche: Could Trump be Deflationary? Truflation The Great Transformation: China's Road from Revolution to Reform Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

This week, Doug and Greg Stokes—Stokes Family Office Managing Partners—discuss market enthusiasm following the election, focusing on the rise of speculative assets like cryptocurrency and Tesla. They'll delve into inflation picking back up and how it has influenced market performance recently and over the last four years. The conversation also looks back at historical market performance during political shifts and the implications for future valuations and market predictions. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Post-election market enthusiasm [04:07] - Speculative assets and cryptocurrency trends [08:38] - Inflation impact both recently and over the last 4 years [13:41] - Historical market performance across the last 22 Presidents [19:40] - Valuations and market enthusiasm View Transcript Links Scottie Pippen's bitcoin prediction dream WSJ: Bitcoin's Future Depends on a Handful of Mysterious Coders U.S Truflation Price Increases over the last 4 years Main Street vs Wall Street inflation Stock performance when Republicans sweep the Senate, House, and White House How stocks have done under the past 22 Presidents Warren Buffett's Apple share sales and cash pile spark intrigue over motives Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Greg and Doug Stokes chat about the surprising results of the 2024 election, where Trump emerged victorious, and the implications of this outcome on the market and economic policies. They analyze polling accuracy, market reactions, and the potential for changes in tax policies and regulations. The discussion this week also covers the movements in various financial markets, including treasuries, stocks, gold, and crypto, and wraps with thoughts on future economic growth and inflation. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Election Day aftermath: surprising results  [04:07] - Markets are forward-looking [09:05] - Movement in rates, long-term rates, and 10-year treasury [12:33] - Gold down, small-caps up [15:30] - Bitcoin, oil, and tax implications View Transcript Links Polymarket 2024 Betting Markets / Election Forecast How the Trump Whale Correctly Called the Election Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Less than a week from voting day, we'll analyze the tight race and the historical context of market performance/reactions. We'll also talk about the evolving role of AI in corporate America and how we can place value on it from an investment perspective. We'll finish with a conversation on market seasonality and historical trends during election years. Key Takeaways [00:17] - New earnings/jobs report + the markets being agnostic to politics [05:13] - Super Micro Computer's stock volatility/reporting [08:33] - Is AI following the broadband playbook? [11:56] - What is the future of AI's actual value? [18:03] - The IPO window is still effectively closed [21:02] - Market seasonality View Transcript Links Polymarket 2024 Betting Markets / Election Forecast More than 25% of all new code at Google is now generated by AI AI's $600B Question What does Upstart do? - video Detrick: Seven Reasons This Bull Market Is Alive and Well Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

This week, we'll discuss the rapidly changing political landscape as the election approaches, focusing on how market predictions and betting trends reflect potential outcomes. We'll analyze the implications of different presidential policies on market sectors, the relationship between economic growth and interest rates, and the long-term perspectives on investment strategies. We'll finish by taking a step back to look at positive global trends and the overall wealth of humanity, encouraging a broader view of current events. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Election dynamics and market reactions/predictions [07:10] - A long-term look at interest rates [10:41] - What really matters to the economy?  [12:25] - A positive, 40,000-foot view on investments and humanity View Transcript Links Wolfe: Election Outcome Scenarios: What to Buy and Sell - Wolfe Bilello: The only S&P 500 sector that's down since July 10? Technology: -3% Steno/Bloomberg: The move in bond yields after the 50bp cut is very out of the ordinary Apollo: Low Returns Expected in the S&P 500 Over the Coming Years 10 Global Trends That Every Smart Person Should Know Super Abundance Ben Carlson: A Staggering Amount of Wealth Creation Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Greg and Doug look at polling data and betting markets marking a shift that could be happening in the race. They'll also examine historical data that shows the party in power does not significantly impact market performance. The conversation then shifts to economic trends, highlighting the recent performance of small and mid-cap stocks and the resurgence of gold as a viable investment. Finally, they delve into technological innovations, including autonomous vehicles and energy efficiency advancements, and what that means for an exciting future. Key Takeaways [00:16] - Polling data and betting markets - is the race shifting? [04:44] - How the market's fared historically depending on who's in office [09:00] - Markets continue to expand [11:55] - The resurgence of gold and diversification strategies [15:26] - The explosion of techno-capitalism View Transcript Links Nate Silver - Silver Bulletin - 2024 presidential election forecast Polymarket 2024 Betting Markets / Election Forecast RealClear Polling betting odds Timmer: Data on Presidential Election Cycles Subscribe to our weekly email list Lawrence Hamtil's diversification strategies Waymo has doubled its weekly paid robotaxi trips to 100,000 since May Blas: Old king coal remains omnipotent and omnipresent Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

With updated CPI data in hand, Greg and Doug discuss the juxtaposition of market highs and inflationary effects on consumer behavior and sentiment. They'll also analyze the current bull market and its future projections, interest rates, the evolving office market post-COVID, and of course, a weekly election update. Key Takeaways [01:04] - Strong economic growth vs. rising prices [04:41] - Election predictions: polls vs. betting markets [09:32] - Bull market analysis and future projections [11:47] - Interest rates and the re-inverted yield curve [16:24] - The future of the office market post-COVID View Transcript Links Bilello: Prices increases over the past 4 years Nate Silver's election forecast Polymarket election forecast The bull market turns 2. Detrick & Varghese explain why history suggests the rally isn't done. BofA: Both Mag. 7 and Other 493's earnings are expected to slow in 3Q Morning Brew: Despite expectations, more employees are returning to the office. Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

A lot is certainly happening all over the world. This week, we discuss the current geopolitical tensions, particularly focusing on the Israeli attacks on Hezbollah and the subsequent reactions from Iran. We analyze the impact of these events on global oil prices and the stock market, highlighting the surprising resilience of the markets despite these tensions.  The conversation then shifts to the domestic economic landscape, including the performance of the Chinese market and the implications of the upcoming US elections. We also address the ongoing dock workers' strike and its economic ramifications, as well as the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene in the southeastern US. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Geopolitical tensions and market reactions [05:15] - Investing at all-time highs  [07:39] - A host of issues leading up to the election [10:39] - Natural disasters, insurance, & potential long-lasting economic effects [15:35] - Ramifications of the dock workers' strike  View Transcript Links JP Morgan: Average cumulative returns: investing on any day vs new high Detrick: S&P 500 is currently up five months in a row. The previous 29 times, stocks were higher a year later 28 times Polymarket: 2024 Election Forecast Apollo: Where is the slowdown? U.S. companies with largest imports to East and Gulf Coast ports over past year Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Doug and Greg discuss the recent 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, analyzing its implications on the economy and the labor and real estate markets. They explore market reactions, economic indicators, and the bullish/bearish conversations around a soft or hard landing. They also touch on the ongoing hurricane season and its economic impact, as well as a weekly update on the upcoming election and its significance. Key Takeaways [00:57] - The Fed's rate cut: implications and analysis [05:25] - Market reactions and economic indicators [08:59] - The ping-pong effect and consumer sentiment  [18:19] - Hurricane season and its economic impact  [22:23] - Election updates and predictions View Transcript Links Zaccardi: Anybody suggesting a recession is imminent is ignoring reality. Detrick: The Fed has cut rates with stocks near all-time highs 20 times. The S&P 500 was higher a year later 20 times. BoA: Despite new highs in global equity markets, sentiment is significantly lower than the extreme euphoria seen in July. Carlson: Rate Cuts & Historical Market Analogues Many home insurers rallying as the hurricane season has failed to bite...so far. Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

This week, Doug and Greg Stokes interview Kyle Bass, Founder & Chief Investment Officer of Hayman Capital Management, and a prominent macro strategist. They discuss the current economic landscape, the implications of Federal Reserve policies, the real estate market, and the geopolitical tensions surrounding China and Taiwan.  Bass provides insights into the economic challenges facing the U.S. and China, the importance of tariffs, the financial/defense ramifications of the election, and America's exceptionalism in the global economy. Key Takeaways [00:16] - Introduction to Kyle Bass and the current macro landscape [08:56] - The real estate market and economic implications [17:22] - Tariffs, trade, and economic strategy [24:47] - China's economic crisis and its global impact [33:06] - Geopolitical tensions: Taiwan and the West [42:50] - How do we become more self-reliant in defense tech? [46:53] - America's economic exceptionalism, growth in Southern states, & future outlook View Transcript Links J. Kyle Bass, Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Hayman Capital Management Ben Bernanke's helicopter speech Samsung's $17B investment in Taylor, TX Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

As we brace for the first hurricane of the season, we hope everyone in the storm's path stays safe.  This week, Greg & Doug Stokes discuss what a soft landing for the market means and the challenges faced by urban areas and the commercial real estate industry. They also touch on the yield curve, Fed cuts, and the upcoming U.S. presidential election as we continue to emphasize the importance of not letting political ideologies drive investment strategies.  Key Takeaways [00:17] - Hurricane update from New Orleans [01:14] - Navigating market volatility in September and October [04:53] - This is what a soft landing looks like [08:25] - The impact of Fed cuts and the upcoming election [13:06] - The un-inversion of the yield curve  [16:51] - Challenges in and predictions for the commercial real estate industry [23:21] - Urban cores are struggling [27:00] - European men are dominating tennis View Transcript Links Sløk: This is a Soft Landing Nate Silver's election prediction More Businesses = More Bankruptcies The ‘Yield Curve' Briefly Turned Normal. What It Means for Stocks. Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

This week, we welcome on special guest Walker Moody, President of Pickering Energy Partners based out of Houston. He'll educate us on the geopolitical ramifications on the energy sector, from wars to our elections. Walker also tells where he sees the future of energy transition heading—in terms of investment—and why Pickering is focused on upstream investments and looking toward longer time horizons. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Introducing Walker Moody, President of Pickering Partners [04:28] - Geopolitical ramifications on energy, from war to our elections [15:39] - When will a lack of investment lead to higher prices? [22:48] - In the last 20 years, who won with the advent of capital into shale? [29:36] - Why Walker will never say “This time is different” [35:00] - Why the road is long and the returns are low for alternative/green energy View Transcript Links Walker Moody Pickering Energy Partners Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

With the news out of Jackson Hole signaling that the Fed is ready to make cuts, what happens now that we're heading into a rate-cutting cycle outside of the realm of emergency cuts in a recession? We'll dive into how that affects real estate and the economy as a whole, and we'll discuss the seemingly closed IPO window and a revised jobs report. Key Takeaways [00:18] - An aura of “mission accomplished” from the Fed [05:14] - What happens to real estate prices post-rate cuts? [11:30] - What to make of the revised jobs report [15:24] - Why has the IPO window closed? [22:01] - Our Saints predictions [24:22] - How AI and nuclear fusion can shape the future of energy View Transcript Links Ritholtz: Edge of Rate Cuts: How We Got Here Roche: There's now a clear change in policy directionality The Most Unaffordable Housing Market in History Grannis: Rate Relief is Coming U.S. added 818,000 fewer jobs than thought, adding to concerns about the economy WSJ: The IPO Market Gets Cold Feet Jason And Travis Kelce Sign Reported $100M Podcast Deal With Amazon's Wondery Forbes: Do You Know What ‘Fusion Power' Is? If Not, That's the Beautiful Point Dennis Whyte: Nuclear Fusion and the Future of Energy | Lex Fridman Podcast Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

This week we had a fascinating chat with Evan Loomis, General Partner at Overmatch and Founder of ICON.  We discuss investing in our defense and how the U.S. strategy is moving from big to small and from expensive to cheap. He'll also educate us on our weak spots, how we compare to Russia and China, and how autonomous weapons and surveillance vehicles keep our brightest servicemen and women out of harm's way. We'll then shift gears away from Earth and talk about the commercialization of space and how Evan's revolutionary company is trying to solve the housing crisis and will one day build the first human habitat on the moon. We finish with Evan's thoughts on the incredible power, opportunity, and fear that AI is creating. Key Takeaways [00:16] - Introducing Evan Loomis and Overmatch Ventures [04:57] - How tech is shifting the U.S. defense strategy [09:35] - What does the defense tech investment landscape look like?  [15:33] - Comparing the U.S. to China and Russia [20:39] - Economic and tech needs to help keep the U.S. out of a conflict [27:55] - The commercialization and defense of space [33:48] - How Icon is trying to solve the housing crisis…and how it involves the moon [40:41] - Where we're headed in an AI-fueled world View Transcript Links Evan Loomis Overmatch Ventures Defense Innovation Unit Critical Technology Tracker Starlink Icon 3D printing homes on Earth, someday the moon | 60 Minutes Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

After seeing a 10% correction, the markets are knocking on the door again near record levels. It's never boring, and that's why we love these weekly dialogues with you. We'll also chat about what Chevron's new drilling tech, the Super Bowl, and hurricanes mean for our local economy, and we'll end —as we seemingly always do—with where we think rates are going.  Key Takeaways [00:18] - Walmart, Amazon, AI + what the data is saying about a recession [06:24] - Chevron rolls out new drilling tech + what it means for our region [11:28] - The impact of the Super Bowl + local real estate issues [16:40] - Societal changes from drinking less to not wanting a driver's license [21:11] - Where are rates going? View Transcript Links Recession or no recession? Carlson: How to predict a recession New drilling technology to put billions of barrels of oil in reach New Orleans Super Bowl to-do list: potholes, parking, security, millions in fundraising Binge drinking just ain't cool anymore Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

What a week! Morgan Housel called this the biggest market decline since the last one you don't remember or care about. With talk of a flash crash happening and a recession looming, we'll look at how Warren Buffet, Apple, and Japanese Yen played into a crazy ride over the past few days. We'll also discuss historical market corrections and how the labor market has constantly evolved throughout history. Key Takeaways [00:18] - Let's recap a crazy week [08:03] - What history says about market corrections [11:28] - Doug was right in his early-year forecast on the correlation of stocks and bonds  [14:50] - AI + how the labor market is constantly changing View Transcript Links How Warren Buffet's Apple selloff may have cost shareholders billions Carlson: 3 thoughts on the stock market correction 60% of today's workers are employed in occupations that didn't exist in 1940 Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

There is a lot happening! Doug and Greg are back solo this week to talk about the markets. We'll examine the affordability and performance of stocks outside of the Magnificent Seven. We'll also look at AI and ask if the bubble has peaked and when can we expect to see a return on the massive investment. We'll finish with a future-facing eye on a potential Kamala Harris tax agenda and why you should not let political beliefs/changes influence your long-term investment strategy. Key Takeaways [00:17] - A reversal in the stock market? [08:48] - Is AI properly or over-rated as a game-changer? [13:32] - Speaking of game-changers, Waymo is expanding in San Fran [18:07] - How would the markets react to a Harris tax agenda?  [29:48] - There's also political drama in Venezuela View Transcript Links Carlson: The Biggest Winners in the Stock Market Sequoia: AI's $600B Question Alphabet to invest $5 billion in self-driving car unit Waymo Nate Silver's latest predictions The Kamala Harris tax proposal Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

We're pleased to welcome Jordan Strebeck, Co-Founder and Managing Partner of Fortress Energy, to the Lagniappe Podcast. Jordan walks us through his background, from New Mexico to Harvard to Midland, and why he chose to focus on minerals. We'll talk about how technology and technique have changed the Permian Basin and the energy sector as a whole and discuss ESG, a narrative shift in the oil and gas industry, and what the U.S. needs to do to keep progressing as a global energy leader. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Introducing Jordan Strebeck, Managing Partner of Fortress Energy [06:31] - Why did he choose the minerals space? [13:32] - How technology and technique changed the Permian Basin [18:10] - Less rigs, more efficiency [23:05] - Fracking and going horizontal [30:34] - ESG, COVID, and capital  [37:09] - A narrative shift for the oil & gas industry  [45:06] - What Jordan thinks we can do better as a country in terms of energy View Transcript Links Fortress Energy Jordan Strebeck Oil-Field Service Companies Ask: Where Did All the Wildcatters Go? Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

We sat down for a fascinating conversation with Permanent Equity Founder and CEO, Brent Beshore. Brent is a pioneer in the micro private equity space so we loved picking his brain on how/why he created PE's unique model, their risks/competition, how he finds businesses, and where he sees the private equity industry heading over the next 10 years. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Getting to know Brent Beshore  [05:10] - Who is Permanent Equity and why is their model so unique? [10:23] - What's the one flaw in their model and how do they use leverage? [15:57] - PE's product lines and value-add pitch to business [20:27] - What does competition look like today? [26:02] - What types of businesses are searching to sell to private equity? [31:24] - The risks that come with transactions/transitions [39:15] - What happens after the 30-year time horizon? [46:39] - How Brent sees the next 10 years  View Transcript Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Happy Independence Day to you and your family. To commemorate the holiday, we'll share what America means to us and reflect on how good we've got it. On the flip side, we'll look at the aftermath of last week's debate and the odds on what happens next. We'll also discuss our expectations for rate cuts and the economic impact of Ozempic-like drugs. Key Takeaways [03:17] - Fallout from the disaster of last week's debate [09:04] - How fixed income relates to inflation [11:42] - Our logical expectations on rate cuts this year [18:25] - The real-life impact of chief market strategists' prognostications [22:50] - Can Ozempic-like drugs have a positive economic impact? View Transcript Links Election betting odds Real Clear polling data How U.S. airlines are hoping Ozempic can save them money CDC: Health and economic costs of chronic conditions Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

It's debate day in America! We'll mark the occasion by examining election predictions and what either result could mean for the economy. We'll also discuss American strength/resilience and why the data says we're not in a debt doom spiral. We'll finish with a Roger Federer mindset as we look under the financial hood and find long-term optimism. Key Takeaways [00:17] - On debate day, we look at what the election could mean financially [09:50] - America and American families keep prevailing/thriving [16:19] - American tourists are driving European economies [19:22] - Federer wisdom + optimism  View Transcript Links Nate Silver's first 2024 election model prediction: not a toss-up Silver: Who is favored to win the 2024 election? Odd Lots: Why Tom Lee Thinks We Could See S&P 15,000 by 2030 Slok: Household net worth is almost 8x higher than disposable income WSJ: Europe has a new economic engine - American tourists The American consumer is Europe's stimulus package Outside of the top 10 stocks, the market is reasonably priced June-August are historically the best 3 months of an election year Roger Federer's Dartmouth commencement speech Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

This episode is all about where we are vs. where we thought we'd be as we near halftime of 2024. Are we surprised by no rate cuts? Could a bullish real estate environment be on the horizon? Why isn't there more news/outcry over the bond markets? We'll look back to answer these questions and look ahead to the buzz of big sporting events and elections coming soon.  Key Takeaways [00:17] - Looking back at the first half of 2024 [07:04] - They will they/won't they rate cut convo [12:50] - The real estate sector needs rate cuts [15:49] - Why hasn't there been more outcry over bonds? [19:24] - An update on private equity and venture capitalism [24:40] - Summer heats up with sporting events and elections on the horizon [29:00] - Projecting where we finish the year View Transcript Links Detrick: Could the Fed really cut with stocks at all-time highs? Yes is the answer. Roche: It's time to cut rates CME FedWatch Tool iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Pensions piled into private equity. Now they can't get out. Election betting odds Breaking spaghetti and record fast goals at the Euros Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

As volatility returns to regional banking, we'll look at what the markets are telling us about the probability of a soft landing. We then say goodbye to Siri and hello to Apple's new AI features and discuss the ins and outs of NVIDIA's stock split.  Key Takeaways [00:18] - PIMCO says more regional bank failures on property are expected [04:51] - Banking strategy and economic growth post-Financial Crisis [12:37] - What is the market saying about the chances of a soft landing? [17:34] - Apple introduces new AI features for iPhone [19:32] - Is the NVIDIA stock split a bullish indicator? View Transcript Links PIMCO warns of more regional bank failures on property pain BoA: Market-implied likelihood of a hard or soft landing CNN Fear & Greed Index iOS 18 AI features will change the game for iPhone users Stocks usually do better after splits Historically you get a better return over time by investing in the S&P at all-time highs compared to any other day Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

As economic data continues to show softness, we predict what that means for rate cuts potentially coming this summer. We'll look at oil prices and discuss why whether you're making business or vacation plans, the stability of prices is so important across the economy. Plus, airline travel and car sales are back! Key Takeaways [00:18] - Is the economy telling us that rate cuts are coming?  [05:01] - The tailwinds from dropping oil prices  [11:26] - Do higher rates add to inflation? [17:50] - Travel is back! [22:58] - Cars are back, too? View Transcript Links Rieder: Very positive data for the Fed's mandate Berger: "The Great Stay" continued in April Grannis: Tight money hasn't hurt corporate profits Grannis: Charts with a message Zaccardi: Corporate bankruptcies in the US are tapering off Roche: Higher rates do not add to inflation Memorial Day travel: flying like it's going out of style Auto sales in May highest since April 2023. Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

NVIDIA is officially the financial story of the year so far, and we'll look at what it means for the economy as a whole and the future of AI. And with advancements in tech, we'll examine how that affects data usage and why commodities, not technology, might be the discussion point for the next decade. Key Takeaways [00:17] - NVIDIA is the story of the year [05:12] - Is NVIDIA the Cisco of today? [10:50] - The trial and error of AI [15:42] - Energy usage today + a commodity supercyle incoming? [24:41] - What are Americans' true sentiments on the economy? View Transcript Links Nvidia now worth more than all German stocks put together Nvidia's share of data center compute market has grown from about 15% five years ago to circa 80% today Goldman: Peak oil demand is still a decade away Oddlots - Goldman's Jeff Currie: it's a commodities supercycle Majority of Americans wrongly believe US is in recession – and most blame Biden Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

As we head into Memorial Day Weekend, we'll touch on some of the biggest headlines including Trump's Media company woes and an endless shrimp promotion leading to bankruptcy for Red Lobster. And with the bears dropping out of the conversation, we'll look at forecast grades for industry experts and how long-term optimism plays into the equation.  Key Takeaways [03:25] - Trump Media hardships [06:37] - Red Lobster and the Endless Shrimp Investigation [09:52] - The business of weight loss [12:45] - Grading gurus and optimists over the long term [19:33] - Inflation update: rent + auto prices  Links Trump Media, valued at $7 billion, booked less than $1 million in first-quarter sales Red Lobster: The endless shrimp investigation WSJ: Red Lobster gets stung by endless shrimp Hims & Hers rallies after launching affordable Wegovy alternatives Nestlé launches frozen food brand aimed at weight-loss drug users JP Morgan's Kolanovic is the last prominent bear as Mike Wilson folds CXO Advisory's guru grades Detrick: Why is better inflation data coming? Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

As markets hit all-time highs again, we'll look at shelter being the key driver of inflation. We'll also touch on Roaring Kitty, meme stocks, and why you can't gamble on the markets. We'll finish with the Scottie Scheffler story and take a look at the future of EVs and fossil fuel consumption. Key Takeaways [02:41] - Shelter continues to be the main inflation driver  [08:05] - Who is Roaring Kitty + gambling on the markets [12:48] - Scottie Scheffler arrest story [15:27] - The decline of Bird Scooters + Apple Vision Pros [18:18] - Electric vehicles & improving tech/techniques for fossil fuels Links Zandi: harmonized core CPI inflation (from the BLS) and harmonized core PCE inflation Roche: Shelter will continue to be the main driver of inflation in the coming year. Davey Day Trader Scottie Scheffler arrested before PGA Championship Round 2 Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

We jump into a conversation we recently had about the inverted yield curve and what it means as a recessionary signal plus, why the charlatans and doom-and-gloomers continue to pop up. We'll then take a trip down memory lane, via stats and stories, about what investing was like in the early 2000s and what it's like at all-time highs. We'll finish with a reminder that although the short term can feel long, it's important to contextualize and focus on the long term.  Key Takeaways [00:18] - The inverted yield curve + bank deposit rates [05:07] - Recession charlatans + are there any reliable market signals? [11:27] - Investing at all-time highs and in the early 2000s [18:37] - Focusing on the macro/long-term Links Timmer: Maybe the 0.5% bank deposit rate has something to do with the lack of economic response At JPMorgan, the nation's largest bank, net interest income dropped 4% from the previous quarter, falling for the first time in 11 quarters Don't take investment advice from Robert Kiyosaki Cardone: WARNING: Stock Market is due for 50% correction taking S&P below 2674 Zaccardi: Investing at all-time highs isn't so bad Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

As earnings and economic growth deliver above expectations, the market is digesting new information from Jerome Powell and the Fed that rate cuts aren't coming soon. We'll look back at the last 30 years of returns and ahead to the next 10 years of prices, discuss offshoring jobs, and give bond market and inflation updates. Key Takeaways [00:19] - Fed Day breakdown [05:07] - April brought a much-needed market reset [09:16] - Looking back at the last 30 years' returns + what to expect over the next 10 [16:50] - The efficiency of offshoring jobs [24:51] - Bond market + inflation updates Links YTD we see 10 of 11 sectors are higher, with cyclical areas like energy, industrials and financials leading the way So far, in Q1, the #EPS surprises have been the highest since 2021 with the dispersion of results elevated Did you know the S&P 500 was up 9 of the past 10 years in May? 30 Years of financial market returns Prices 10 years from now Faber: I'm so bullish on US stocks I think you should invest most of your money here The lagging components of the inflation basket Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

It's peak season in Nola with Jazz Fest, the Zurich Classic, the Pels in the Playoffs, and town is buzzing. We'll zoom out to examine what all that spending means for the national economy. We'll also look at wide-breadth market participation and why despite a sell-off in tech, the rest of the market is holding up well. We finish with a rearview mirror view of COVID-era oil prices, how we missed a recession, and what we're expecting for the rest of this year.  Key Takeaways [00:20] - Fun times in Nola and what that means for the national economy [03:00] - Mixed signals from the country's biggest economists  [06:38] - Things look good with the rest of the 495 S&P stocks [12:18] - The COVID oil crash and why you stick with a game plan [18:20] - Looking back at how we missed a recession & ahead to the rest of 2024 Links S&P 500 Is Ripe for Further Gains, JPMorgan's Trading Desk Says Morgan Stanley's Wilson Is Steering Clear of Bold S&P 500 Calls Meta tumbles 12% after a disappointing second-quarter revenue forecast S&P 1500 Value P/E How rare was Friday? 300+ S&P 500 stocks were green, yet the index was down 0.9% which has only happened once since 1998 Four years ago, oil prices went negative How rising interest rates change the relationship between stocks and bonds Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

While the debt doomers circle, we'll examine why no one is good at forecasting and why widely acceptable notions of cross-asset correlations are wrong. We'll also focus on the market's strengths and discuss the incredible power of America's dollar, wages, and efficient energy output. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Inflation Update + shelter's outsized effect [06:33] - Disinflation + the debt-doom loop [09:40] - The power of the US: the Dollar, our wages, energy production [13:36] - The incredible efficiency of modern oil/energy markets [15:09] - What's happened recently when the SP has broken a positive trend line [16:16] - The surprising market reaction to Iran's missile attack Links Bilello: The Start of a Correction (March CPI Data) Apartment List National Rent Report (April) Grannis: Moderate growth and disinflation still alive and well Weniger: A massive wage arbitrage has opened between the US and its competitors USA has switched from large importer of oil & gas to a significant exporter Carmel: We're not in a 1970s-style oil-inflation spiral Detrick: S&P 500 broke the trend line from late October. What's next? Carmel: We are objectively terrible at forecasting rates Roche: Why savers are in hog heaven Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.