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In this week's Systematic Investor episode, Niels and Andrew Beer explore how a broken 60/40 paradigm is forcing wealth managers into a new world of “other” diversifiers. Andrew reflects on the Goldman Sachs report about private wealth flows, the rise of liquid alts and why big houses are suddenly launching trend ETFs. The conversation dives into replication versus traditional CTAs, the true cost of complexity, and Simplify's new index-based product built on Andrew's strategy. Along the way they debate pods, Bitcoin, and Andrew's evolving metaphor of managed futures as a cloudy, but occasionally crystal-clear, macro crystal ball.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro and Thanksgiving reflections, gratitude and mood after the holiday01:14 - Goldman report: trillions from wealthy investors and a seismic shift away from 60/4003:38 - Why bonds stopped diversifying and the growth of the “other” bucket in portfolios05:44 - Liquid alts vs illiquid alts and the timing of big firms launching trend ETFs08:25 - Odd Lots, pods and Dalio's skepticism on multi-strats' future09:22 - Bitcoin's volatile run and rumors of a manipulated pullback10:59 - November performance: zigzags in trend indices and short-term traders' struggles12:55 - How DBMF positioned: concentration, short yen, euro pain and being contrarian post “Liberation Day”16:05 - Are we still “replication”? Alternative data beta, tracking error and what's really...
In today's episode we talk about the world's oldest, and still most important asset: land. Our guest is the Economist's Wall Street Editor Mike Bird. Mike is the author of a newly released book The Land Trap: A New History of the World's Oldest Asset. We discuss the properties that make land unique as an asset and why it serves as collateral for almost two-thirds of all bank loans, making it the backbone of the world's money supply. Mike explains what the “land trap” means and why China is caught in its grip like no other country. We also discuss the one country in the world that seems to have escaped the trap and whether their lessons can be applied elsewhere. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Mike on X and read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening and setup00:00:49 - Disclaimer and show introduction00:01:45 - The premise: land as humanity's oldest asset00:04:18 - Defining the “land trap” through Hong Kong's model00:09:01 - Three defining traits: scarcity, immovability, endurance00:18:17 - Why technology can't replace geography00:23:29 - Land as collateral and the rise of...
Rob Carver returns for a conversation that quietly questions the foundations. Is trend following an edge - or just a reward for holding discomfort others can't? From the role of skew in shaping outcomes to the blind spots in most robustness frameworks, Rob and Niels takes you through the mechanics with uncommon clarity. Listener questions open up the deeper layers: when volatility targeting helps, when it hurts, and why Sharpe Ratios can mislead. They end with a shift that may matter more than it seems: CalPERS moving to a Total Portfolio Approach. Not just a new framework - potentially a new lane for CTAs.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro and welcome to the Systematic Investor Series00:23 - Catching up with Rob and a cold, sunny UK01:35 - Is trend following an edge or a risk premium?03:38 - Overcomplicating edges and the Cliff Asness perspective04:30 - Renaissance's bad month and how even legends struggle09:25 - Managed futures ETFs, performance narratives, and media framing11:22 - AI, Nvidia and what an “AI bubble” might mean for trends13:10 - Trend barometer, current positioning and where returns come from18:35 - George's question: robustness testing, overfitting and multiple testing25:45 - How often to re-fit models and when to leave parameters alone27:44 - Frederik's question: intraday versus end of day for medium term...
November 2025 Sustainable Stock and ETF Picks… Includes stocks in the following sectors: hydrogen, AI infrastructure, wind, and climate transition. By Ron Robins, MBA Transcript & Links, Episode 161, November 21, 2025 Hello, Ron Robins here. Welcome to my podcast episode 161, published on November 21, 2025, titled "November 2025 Sustainable Stock and ETF Picks." This podcast is presented by Investing for the Soul. Investingforthesoul.com is your go-to site for vital global, ethical, and sustainable investing mentoring, news, commentary, information, and resources. Remember that you can find a full transcript and links to content, including stock symbols and bonus material, on this episode's podcast page at investingforthesoul.com/podcasts. Also, a reminder. I do not evaluate any of the stocks or funds mentioned in these podcasts, and I don't receive any compensation from anyone covered in these podcasts. Furthermore, I will reveal any investments I have in the investments mentioned herein. I have a great crop of 17 articles for you in this podcast! Note: Some companies are covered more than once. ------------------------------------------------------------- (1) A Look at 7 Hydrogen Energy Stocks: Trillion-Dollar Market Ignites Green Investment Boom I'm starting this podcast with an article on an energy segment that not many ethical and sustainable investors have much exposure to. Yet, it could be of interest to many. The article is titled A Look at 7 Hydrogen Energy Stocks: Trillion-Dollar Market Ignites Green Investment Boom. It's by Caroline Kong and on nai500.com. Here are some quotes. "With technological advancements and policy support, this vast market, with a potential scale of $11 trillion, is maturing at an accelerated pace. 1. Linde (LIN) has not only mastered efficient hydrogen compression and safe refueling technologies but also reduces the carbon footprint of hydrogen through carbon capture. The company's recent 100-megawatt renewable hydrogen plant project in partnership with Shell, expected to be operational by 2027, demonstrates its commitment to industrial layout. 2. Air Products (APD) is even more aggressive, currently operating over 100 hydrogen production plants worldwide with a daily capacity of 7 million kilograms. Its NEOM green hydrogen project in Saudi Arabia is 80% complete and expected to commence operation in 2027. The company is also advancing an $8 billion blue hydrogen project in Louisiana, a $3.3 billion blue hydrogen project in Canada, and a $360 million green hydrogen project in Arizona set to come online in 2026. 3. BP (BP) has positioned hydrogen energy as a key pillar of its strategy to achieve net-zero by 2050. The company plans to invest in 5-7 hydrogen and carbon capture projects globally. Its Lingen project in Germany, expected to be operational by 2027, aims to produce up to 11,000 tons of green hydrogen annually. However, BP recently canceled its HyGreen Teesside project, the UK's first planned green hydrogen project, and exited a planned project in Australia, reflecting the challenges the industry still faces on the path to commercialization. 4. Plug Power (PLUG) has deployed 72,000 fuel cell systems and operates 275 refueling stations in North America. The company is building an end-to-end green hydrogen ecosystem, with multiple green hydrogen production facilities expected to be operational before 2028. In October 2025, the company delivered its first 100-megawatt electrolyzer to Galp's refinery in Europe, signifying international recognition of its technology. 5. Bloom Energy (BE) stands out with its revolutionary solid oxide technology. The company's Bloom Electrolyzer is 15% to 45% more efficient than comparable products on the market, making it particularly suitable for decarbonizing energy-intensive industries like steel and chemicals. A recent collaboration with Oracle on powering data centers for AI workloads has opened up new growth avenues. The company has reported record revenue and profits for three consecutive quarters, demonstrating strong growth momentum. 6. Cummins (CMI) is deeply engaged in the hydrogen sector through its zero-emissions technology business unit, Accelera. In October 2025, the company successfully tested a prototype hydrogen-powered internal combustion engine in an intercity bus made by a Turkish-Japanese automotive joint venture, performing as well as a natural gas engine with significantly lower emissions. Simultaneously, it is supplying a 100-megawatt PEM electrolyzer for BP's project in Germany, showcasing its strength in hydrogen equipment manufacturing. 7. FuelCell Energy (FCEL) focuses on distributed baseload energy solutions, with its proprietary carbonate fuel cell and solid oxide electrolyzer technologies drawing attention. The company is developing large-scale hydrogen production systems based on solid oxide electrolyzers, targeting large manufacturing plants and data centers." End quotes. ------------------------------------------------------------- (2) 3 AI Infrastructure Stocks Solving the Power Crisis The second article features three stocks in an industry undergoing massive investment. The article is titled 3 AI Infrastructure Stocks Solving the Power Crisis. It's by George Budwell and found on fool.com. Here are some quotes from this article. "Artificial intelligence (AI) Hyperscalers are choosing data center locations based on power grid capacity rather than tax breaks or fiber access, and utility companies are scrambling to upgrade transmission infrastructure that wasn't designed for industrial computing loads… These three AI infrastructure plays capture unavoidable costs that scale with every new AI cluster, regardless of which chip architecture ultimately dominates. 1. Vertiv (NYSE: VRT) designs and manufactures thermal management systems, power distribution units, and turnkey modular data center halls for AI deployments… 2. Eaton (NYSE: ETN) manufactures electrical power distribution equipment, backup power systems, and control software for commercial and industrial customers, including data centers. The company's data center portfolio includes uninterruptible power supplies, power distribution units, switchgear, and busway systems that manage electricity from the utility connection down to individual server racks. 3. Quanta Services (NYSE: PWR) provides specialty contracting services for electric power, pipeline, and communications infrastructure, including the design and construction of transmission lines and substations… Recent revenue growth and a raised 2025 outlook reflect contracts tied to grid modernization projects that utility companies must complete before data centers can break ground. Quanta captures infrastructure spending that happens months or years before the first GPU gets racked, with multiyear project timelines providing visibility into revenue beyond 2026." End quotes. ------------------------------------------------------------- (3) Top Wind Energy Stocks to Add to Your Portfolio for Long-Term Growth Many analysts believe that, in addition to being negatively targeted by the Trump administration, this renewable energy sector has tremendous long-term potential. The article is titled Top Wind Energy Stocks to Add to Your Portfolio for Long-Term Growth. It's by Avisekh Bhattacharjee and found on finance.yahoo.com, though originally on zacks.com. The following are some quotes from the article. "The wind energy sector continues to gain traction with greater flexibility and scalability, despite a shift in the U.S. federal policy regarding offshore wind development projects. 1. Duke Energy (DUK) (DUK-PA) is a premier utility service provider offering efficient power and energy services. The Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) company is currently focused on expanding its scale of operations, implementing modern technologies at its facilities as well as enhancing its renewable generation portfolio by investing heavily in infrastructure and expansion projects… The company is investing heavily in constructing generation facilities that produce reduced CO2 emissions per unit of electricity generated compared with coal. Duke Energy Corporation (DUK): Free Stock Analysis Report. 2. Dominion Energy (D) is a major energy company engaged in regulated and non-regulated electricity distribution, generation and transmission businesses… Its long-term objective is to operate more battery storage, solar, hydro and wind (offshore as well as onshore) projects by 2036 and increase the renewable energy capacity by more than 15% per year, on average, over the next 15 years. Dominion Energy Inc. (D): Free Stock Analysis Report. By 2035, the Zacks Rank #2 company is working on offshore wind projects and battery storage projects to lower emissions. 3. PG&E (PCG) operates as the parent holding company of California's largest regulated electric and gas utility, Pacific Gas and Electric Company. The Zacks Rank #2 company's exposure in wind energy stems from the procurement of power from several renewable resources, including wind, and developing its wind farms… In the quarters ahead, PG&E's bottom line is expected to be driven by favorable decisions from the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), long-term supply agreements, diversification into alternative power sources and infrastructure improvement programs, resulting in rate base growth. Pacific Gas & Electric Co. (PCG) : Free Stock Analysis Report. 4. Portland General Electric (POR) generates power primarily from wind, solar and hydropower… The Zacks Rank #2 company is poised to benefit from strong industrial load growth… To further expand its renewable portfolio, Portland General Electric plans to add a significant clean power generation asset over the long term. Portland General Electric Company (POR): Free Stock Analysis Report." End quotes. ------------------------------------------------------------- (4) 5 Undervalued Stocks That Are Climate Transition Leaders For investors interested in climate transition-related stocks, this article could be of interest to you. It's titled 5 Undervalued Stocks That Are Climate Transition Leaders. It's by Stephen Ellis and found on morningstar.com. Here are some quotes on each of the stocks. "Our climate transition leaders' research from Morningstar Sustainalytics aims to identify front-runners in this space… Our inaugural list of 21 climate transition leaders looks at a wide spectrum of sectors… Below, we've also identified which ones look undervalued. 1. Clorox (★★★★★) (CLX) Since its beginning more than 100 years ago, Clorox has expanded to operate in a variety of consumer products categories, including cleaning supplies, laundry care, trash bags, cat litter, charcoal, food dressings, water-filtration products, and natural personal-care products. 2. Air Liquide (★★★★) (Liquide) The company generated approximately EUR 27.1 billion of revenue in 2024, serving a wide range of industries, including chemicals, energy, healthcare, food and beverage, and electronics. 3. Sanofi (★★★★) (SAN) Sanofi develops and markets drugs with a concentration in immunology, vaccines, and rare diseases… About 45% of total revenue comes from the United States, 20% from Europe, and 6% from China. 4. Henkel AG & Co (★★★★) (HEN) Two distinct customer groups constitute Henkel. The consumer segment (around 50% of consolidated 2024 sales) is laundry and home care, including the Persil and Purex laundry detergent brands, and beauty care, including the Schwarzkopf brand in haircare and the Dial brand in hand soap. The adhesives technologies segment makes up the remaining 50% of sales. 5. Pernod Ricard SA (★★★★) (RI) Through acquisitions, the firm has grown to become the world's second-largest distiller by volume, behind Diageo. Pernod Ricard possesses the most comprehensive spirits portfolio globally, distributing over 240 brands across 160 countries. To see the full list of Sustainalytics' Climate Transition Leaders, read this." End quotes. ------------------------------------------------------------- (5) America's Most Ethical Companies: 2025 Survey Results This next article features another company ranking. The cover article is titled America's Most Ethical Companies: 2025 Survey Results on marketbeat.com. It's also by MarketBeat Staff. Here are some quotes. "In a time when trust in big business can feel like a rare commodity, our survey shows that Americans still believe there are companies guided by conscience. More than 3,000 people across the country weighed in on which brands in their state they feel actually share their values." End quotes The top five ranked companies are Hershey Company (HSY), The Campbell's Company (CPB), Burt's Bees (owned by Clorex, CLX), Ocean Spray (is a co-op), and CVS Health (CVS). ------------------------------------------------------------- More articles from around the world with Sustainable Investment Picks for November 2025. 1. Title: Up 145% in 2025, This AI Infrastructure Stock Is Still Deeply Discounted on finance.yahoo.com. By Rich Duprey. 2. Title: Accenture a Top Socially Responsible Dividend Stock With 2.6% Yield (ACN) on nasdaq.com. By BNK Invest. 3. Title: Clean Energy's Rally Is Outpacing AI's in 2025. Here Are 3 Renewable Energy Stocks to Buy Now on fool.com. By William Dahl. 4. Title: Top 3 Stocks Powering the 6-Month 100% Gain in Clean Energy on fool.com. By Matthew Nesto. 5. Title: 3 Solar Stocks Our Top Chart Strategist is Watching as Energy Demand Surges on finance.yahoo.com. By Elizabeth H. Volk. 6. Title: Best Renewable Energy Stocks To Watch Now on marketbeat.com. By MarketBeat. 7. Title: Top 5 Greentech Stocks to Watch as Sustainable Investments Gain Momentum on and by Investing.com. 8. Title: URA, NLR, HYDR Stocks: Top Clean Energy ETFs for 2026 on marketbeat.com. By Nathan Reiff. 9. Title: 3 Alternative Energy ETFs That Are Crushing the Market This Year on investing.com. By MarketBeat.com. 10. Title: Investing in India's Green Future: Top ESG Stocks to Watch in 2026 on isfm.co.in. By Mr. Sushil Alewa. 11. Title: Clean Energy's Rally Is Outpacing AI's in 2025. Here Are 3 Renewable Energy Stocks to Buy Now on finance.yahoo.com. By William Dahl. 12. Title: 3 Alternative Energy Stocks to Watch Amid Near-Term Challenges on nasdaq.com. By Tanvi Sarawagi. ------------------------------------------------------------- Ending Comment These are my top news stories with their stock and fund tips for this podcast, "November 2025 Sustainable Stock and ETF Picks." Please click the like and subscribe buttons wherever you download or listen to this podcast. That helps bring these podcasts to others like you. And please click the share buttons to share this podcast with your friends and family. Let's promote ethical and sustainable investing as a force for hope and prosperity in these tumultuous and troubled times! Contact me if you have any questions. Thank you for listening. My next podcast will be on December 19th. See you then. Bye for now. © 2025 Ron Robins, Investing for the Soul
Recorded live from the Cboe RMC floor in Munich, Cem Karsan sits down with volatility veteran David Dredge for a deep exploration of what truly drives risk. From the crash of 1987 to today's era of correlation, Dredge reframes volatility not as fear, but freedom. Through his F1 “brakes” analogy, he reveals why protection enables performance, and how convexity builds resilience in an uncertain world. Together, they trace the arc from structured-product flows to demographics, fiscal repression, and the coming global “Hunger Games” for savings. A masterclass in compounding through uncertainty.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow David on X.Episode TimeStamps: 00:01:29 – Cem introduces David Dredge live from Munich.00:03:28 – Dredge recalls arriving in Asia before the 1987 crash.00:05:06 – The F1 brakes analogy—why protection enables speed.00:07:45 – The “preserve and enhance” portfolio that defied 65/35.00:10:57 – Rethinking 60/40 and the illusion of diversification.00:14:33 – Cem on $500 trillion of correlated assets.00:17:22 – Why covered calls lose to convexity over time.00:19:14 – Misreading 2022: correlation, not equities, was the risk.00:21:20 – When diversification fails, only convexity endures.00:27:13 – Value investing in volatility—buying what others suppress.00:37:48 – Euro...
Bull Markets, Investor Hubris, and the Hidden Risks of Annuities Are you feeling smarter about your investments after years of strong market returns? In this episode of The Financial Hour of The Tom Dupree Show, Tom Dupree and Mike Johnson explore a critical truth that even legendary investors like Benjamin Graham learned the hard way: bull markets can create dangerous overconfidence. For those thinking about retirement or already in retirement in Kentucky, this discussion reveals why understanding what you own—and maintaining investment humility—matters more than chasing the latest “simple solution.” Unlike mass-market advisory firms that promote one-size-fits-all products, Dupree Financial Group emphasizes personalized investment management and portfolio transparency. This episode examines the psychology of market success, the realities of annuity contracts, and why direct access to portfolio managers who show you exactly what you own provides than opaque insurance products. Key Takeaways: Investment Lessons from Market History Bull Markets Create False Confidence: Even Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett’s mentor, nearly lost everything after early success made him believe he “had Wall Street by the tail”—a lesson for today’s investors experiencing strong returns Market Success Often Includes Luck: Quick wins can lead to psychological distortions, especially when you’ve “unknowingly broken the rules of the game but won anyway” The Dangers of Autopilot Investing: Index funds and passive strategies mean following a “prescribed path that lots of other people are going,” with little thought given to how portfolios are composed Annuities Are Complex Insurance Products: Despite being marketed as simple solutions, annuities involve counterparty risk, surrender penalties, and fine print that rarely delivers promised returns Portfolio Transparency Is Powerful: Understanding exactly what you own—seeing individual stocks and bonds rather than packaged products—provides genuine comfort during market volatility Fear-Based Investing Creates Poor Outcomes: Investment decisions driven solely by fear (whether fear of loss or fear of missing out) typically underperform thoughtful, process-driven strategies The Benjamin Graham Story: When Success Breeds Dangerous Confidence Mike Johnson shares a compelling historical example that resonates powerfully with today’s investment environment. Benjamin Graham—the father of value investing and Warren Buffett’s teacher—started his investment firm in the Roaring Twenties with $400,000. Within just three years, he turned that into $2.5 million. As Mike explains: “Because of the great success over that short period of time, he knew that he knew it all, had Wall Street by the tail. He was thinking about owning a large yacht, a villa in Newport, race horses. And he said, ‘I was too young to realize that I’d caught a bad case of hubris.'” The consequences? When Graham thought the worst of the 1930 market crash was over, he went all in—and even used leverage. The result nearly wiped him out personally, and his firm had to be bailed out by a partner. By 1932, his portfolio had lost over 50%, dropping from $2.5 million back to just $375,000. Tom Dupree emphasizes the universal lesson: “The market can humble you real quick. You always have to view past successes in the lens of ‘okay, you may have had a good run, a good success, and some of that could be luck.'” Why This Matters for Kentucky Retirement Planning Today For those thinking about retirement who have benefited from recent market strength, this story serves as a critical reminder. Mike notes: “In the environment we’ve been in for the last several years in the market, some people have made life-changing money. Some people have made good returns and they got to their goal quicker than they thought they would.” The question becomes: How do you respect the gift the market has given you? Through careful analysis with a local financial advisor who can provide personalized portfolio analysis rather than assuming past success will automatically continue. The Problem with “Autopilot” Investing: Index Funds and Groupthink Tom Dupree delivers a powerful critique of passive index investing that challenges conventional wisdom. When Mike mentions autopilot investing, Tom responds: “Autopilot isn’t ever autopilot. It’s a path that someone else has selected that you’re going on and you’re going on it because everybody else is.” He continues with a critical observation: “In the case of an index, it’s an arbitrarily picked index of, say, 500 stocks that meet a certain size criteria, certain management criteria. What you don’t understand frequently is that by going on autopilot, you’re actually being told what to do. You’re not just going with the flow—there’s almost no thought going into it. There’s no real investing.” Mike adds: “That’s the definition of mediocrity. Even if the return is good and everybody’s getting a good return because the market’s doing well, it’s still mediocrity because you’re not spending any time thinking about what you’re doing or how you’re doing it.” The Windfall Effect: Why Unearned Money Often Gets Lost Mike shares another psychological insight relevant to both inheritance and market windfalls: “We’ve seen it when someone inherits a windfall unexpectedly. A lot of times you see bad decisions with that money. Not all the time, but a lot of times. They’ve never had that kind of money before. They didn’t earn it. How can you respect it that way? How can you fear it?” This applies directly to portfolios that have grown significantly without the owner fully understanding why or how. As Mike notes: “You don’t have the respect that also goes along with having made it. That’s why you see somebody that’s gradually built something over a long period of time—you don’t have that dopamine hit.” For Kentucky retirement planning, this suggests the importance of understanding your investment philosophy and how each holding contributes to your goals, rather than simply celebrating portfolio growth without comprehension. Annuities: The “Simple Solution” That Rarely Delivers The second half of the episode tackles annuities—insurance products increasingly marketed to those in or approaching retirement. Mike presents sobering statistics: “In 2025, more Americans than ever are going to be turning 65—about 4.2 million US citizens will be turning 65 this year.” He connects this demographic trend with research from Allianz: “64% of those surveyed were more worried about running out of money than death.” Tom responds: “That’s a really frightening comment on where a lot of people are.” This fear creates demand for products marketed as “easy solutions”—but the reality is far more complex. Types of Annuities and Their Real-World Performance Mike breaks down the main annuity categories: Index Annuities (Currently Most Popular): These promise you can earn up to a certain percentage annually without losing principal if markets decline. However, Mike explains the reality: “What you generally see is the rate of return on an index annuity averages pretty close to what the going CD rate is. That’s just the math of it.” The problem lies in the fine print. Mike offers a detailed example: “Let’s say it’s a one-year point-to-point, and they say over the year you can make up to 6%. If you take that on a monthly basis, that’s half a percent a month. If in January the market goes up 1%, they credit you half a percent. But then come December, the market goes down 7%. It’s still up for the year, but December wiped out your credit. Even though the market is up for the year, you’re credited with zero.” Immediate Annuities: The “purest form” where you give an insurance company principal in exchange for monthly income. Mike notes: “In those scenarios, you’re essentially getting your own money back for 15, 18 years, and then you start coming out ahead—not even taking into account time value of money.” Fixed Annuities: Similar to CDs inside a tax-deferred wrapper. The primary risk? “The insurance company is able to use the money to earn a return, and in exchange for what they’re paying you. The risk that you’re agreeing to take on is inflation risk.” Variable Annuities: Once popular in the 1990s and early 2000s but less common now due to previous issues at major insurers. The Hidden Risks Nobody Tells You About Annuities Beyond the obvious issues like surrender penalties (typically 7 years, but Mike has seen contracts as long as 14 years), several critical risks receive little attention: Counterparty Risk: Who’s Really Backing Your Annuity? Tom explains: “You have the insurance company as the counterparty, and the insurance company is investing its own money in corporate bonds, and some of those are going into these AI data centers.” Mike expands on this: “Most people think when they have an annuity from an insurance company that it’s similar to something AAA because it’s insured. But what’s it insured by? It’s insured by securities that are backing it that could have trouble.” Tom recalls historical examples: “I’ve seen it happen before. AIG, Executive Life before that—lots of it during my career. Hartford got in trouble with writing variable annuities.” The Insurance Company Squeeze: When Spreads Get Tight Mike reveals a current market concern: “There’s huge demand for bonds, and at the same time, the hyperscalers financing data centers are looking for buyers. The marginal buyer, the largest buyer, has been insurance companies of the data center debt.” The consequence? “Spreads are the tightest they’ve been since the nineties. They’re being priced for perfection, priced almost like a Treasury. But we’re talking about bonds that are backed by a data center with a revenue stream that’s not yet to be determined.” Tom summarizes: “When the spreads aren’t attractive, they’ll go out on the risk spectrum and take more risks to try to get a little more spread there. It’s a vicious cycle.” The Commission Structure Nobody Mentions Tom notes: “We didn’t even talk about the commission part of the annuity structure—the fact that it’s a very, very heavily commission-structured product.” This contrasts sharply with Dupree Financial Group’s approach: “We are fee-based, and it takes all incentive to not—well, we’re fiduciaries also, so we must by law do what’s best for the client. That aligns our interest with the clients as well, which gives you a different product.” The Power of Portfolio Transparency: Seeing What You Actually Own Throughout the episode, Tom and Mike return to a core principle that distinguishes personalized investment management from packaged products. Tom explains: “Our style of investing is that when you get your statement, you are looking under the hood because it’s right there. You’re seeing what your money’s invested in. You’re not looking at an investment that’s invested your money in something else that you can’t see.” Mike emphasizes why this matters over time: “You gain an understanding and a comfort level that’s not just taking somebody’s word for it. You’re seeing it with your own eyes over a long period of time. You see the income, you see price movement. You see these different aspects, and really, it makes the thing come to life.” This transparency provides advantages that no annuity contract or index fund can match: You know exactly which companies you own shares in You understand why each holding is in your portfolio You can see income generation in real-time, not theoretical returns You develop genuine comfort during market volatility because you know what you own You avoid the “black box” problem of packaged products Tom adds: “We’ve always invested with people typically where we show them what is under the hood, what they own. It’s not a package product. It’s not an ETF, it’s not a mutual fund, it isn’t an annuity. It’s not some structured note. It’s bonds and stocks for the most part.” Learning from Mistakes: The Value of Experience Tom shares an honest perspective on how Dupree Financial Group has developed its approach: “There’s nothing like mistakes to help you with financial stuff. Mistakes are valuable if you can limit them to a certain amount to where it doesn’t knock you out of the box. But one of the best investing tools is making mistakes.” He continues: “We’ve learned a lot in our firm with companies that we invested in that were just mistakes. We didn’t think they were mistakes at the time, but over time, you know, it was. And what we began to learn is: Don’t go there again. Let’s not do that one again.” This experiential learning creates pattern recognition: “When you see something again, you see similarities and differences and you’re like, ‘Okay, that’s an opportunity.’ You just learn.” This accumulated wisdom—built over 47 years in Tom’s case—represents a significant advantage of working with experienced local financial advisors rather than being assigned an investment counselor at a large national firm who may lack this depth of historical perspective. The Critical Questions to Ask About Your Retirement Portfolio Mike provides a framework for evaluating your current situation: “You have to pause and view it in the context of you, specifically your situation. There’s always going to be people richer than you. There’s always going to be people that have more of something than you have, and you have to be careful of viewing your situation through their context.” He offers specific questions: “Do the numbers work for you at where they are?” “Do a critical analysis of what the investments are” “Is there an investment plan?” “Or is it—has it just been on autopilot and the autopilot’s taking you where you wanted to go?” “You need to reevaluate where things are today” Mike emphasizes the market context: “This market—people who have had assets invested in the stock market for the last several years—you’ve been given a gift. Generally speaking, a gift in terms of the returns. And you need to respect the gift.” How do you respect it? “By analyzing what it is that you have and thinking critically about how can this be used. Is it being utilized properly in terms of an investment mix, in terms of just an investment approach?” Fear vs. Process: Making Better Investment Decisions A recurring theme throughout the episode is the danger of emotion-driven investing. Mike warns: “You have to be very concerned about allowing your investment decision to be driven only by fear. Yes. And to the point we were making in the first half, having a process—an investment process, an investment plan—that is dynamic enough to change when things need to change.” He identifies two common fear patterns: Fear of Loss: “Think about what fear drives you to do generally. You can look at fear in a situation like an annuity where you leave potential earnings on the table out of fear.” Fear of Missing Out: “And then sometimes there’s fear of missing out in an up market and you can jump in when you shouldn’t.” Tom adds: “Fear is a good thing to have in relation to investing.” Mike clarifies: “Respect. I would call it respect. A respect that things can happen.” This balanced perspective—maintaining respect for market risks while following a thoughtful process—characterizes the approach at Dupree Financial Group. Review their market commentary archive to see how this philosophy has been applied across various market cycles. When Annuities Actually Make Sense (It’s Rare, But It Happens) Despite the episode’s critical examination of annuities, Tom shares an important caveat: “I have seen annuities where they actually make sense for the person. And in those instances, keep it.” He shares a specific example: “I had a client one time that did buy an annuity. It grew in value. He passed away and his wife received a significantly higher payout than what would have happened if we had just invested in investments because the market had gone down, but the value of the annuity had gone up.” Tom reflects on the outcome: “That was a case where I feel like that lady was blessed. I’ve seen it happen too where there have been clients that I feel like—and the only way I can put it is—it’s like God touched them in ways that I can’t explain. Just in ways that it’s just a blessing.” The key takeaway? “You need to have an unbiased analysis of the contract. What are the terms? Does it actually accomplish your goals?” If you currently own an annuity, Mike encourages: “You can give us a call and we can talk with you about the specifics of your contract.” Why “Simple Solutions” Rarely Work for Retirement Mike concludes with a fundamental truth about retirement investing: “Investing’s never just a simple one decision solution. It’s a process. It has to be because things change. Markets change, people’s lives change, and there has to be a process behind what you’re doing.” Tom reinforces the warning: “Whenever they tell you you don’t have to look under the hood with this investment, you better look under the hood.” This principle applies equally to: Index funds marketed as “set it and forget it” solutions Annuities sold as eliminating all market risk Any investment product that promises complexity has been eliminated Mass-market approaches that treat all investors identically For those thinking about retirement or already in retirement in Kentucky, the alternative is working with advisors who provide direct access to portfolio managers, show you exactly what you own, and maintain a process-driven approach that adapts to changing circumstances while remaining grounded in time-tested principles. Ready to See What’s Really Under the Hood of Your Portfolio? If you’re concerned that recent market success may have created blind spots in your retirement planning—or if you’re evaluating whether an annuity truly serves your interests—Dupree Financial Group offers complimentary portfolio reviews for Kentucky residents thinking about retirement or already in retirement. During your consultation, you’ll receive: Honest assessment of your current portfolio’s strengths and vulnerabilities Analysis of whether you’re taking appropriate risks given your life stage Evaluation of any annuity contracts you currently own (unbiased review of actual terms) Direct conversation with experienced portfolio managers who personally manage client assets Clear explanation of what you own and why—no black boxes or packaged products Discussion of how to respect and protect the gains the market has provided Don’t let bull market confidence create blind spots in your retirement plan. Schedule your complimentary portfolio review today. Call Dupree Financial Group at (859) 233-0400 or visit www.dupreefinancial.com to schedule directly from our homepage. Experience the difference that personalized investment management, portfolio transparency, and direct access to portfolio managers makes in your Kentucky retirement planning journey. Frequently Asked Questions About Bull Markets, Annuities, and Retirement Investing What does it mean that “bull markets make you feel smarter than you really are”? This phrase captures how extended periods of market gains can create false confidence in investment abilities. As the Benjamin Graham story illustrates, even legendary investors can mistake favorable market conditions for personal genius. For those in or approaching retirement in Kentucky, this means strong recent returns shouldn’t lead to overconfidence or excessive risk-taking. Working with a local financial advisor who provides objective perspective helps distinguish between skill and fortunate timing. Why did Benjamin Graham nearly lose everything despite being Warren Buffett’s teacher? After turning $400,000 into $2.5 million in just three years during the 1920s, Graham developed what he called “hubris”—thinking he “had Wall Street by the tail.” When he believed the 1930 crash was over, he went all in using leverage. The market continued falling, and his portfolio dropped back to just $375,000. The lesson: even brilliant investors can be humbled by markets when success breeds overconfidence. His partner had to bail out the firm, and Graham didn’t take a salary for years while making clients whole. What’s wrong with index fund investing for retirement? While index funds work for some investors, Tom Dupree notes they represent “a path that someone else has selected that you’re going on because everybody else is.” There’s “no real investing” happening—just following an arbitrary selection of stocks based on size criteria. Mike Johnson adds this is “the definition of mediocrity” because “you’re not spending any time thinking about what you’re doing.” For Kentucky retirement planning, personalized investment management provides understanding of actual holdings rather than passive acceptance of whatever an index contains. How do index annuities actually work, and why do they underperform? Index annuities promise upside participation (often “up to 6% annually”) with downside protection. However, the mechanics rarely deliver. In a typical point-to-point structure, if the market gains 1% monthly for 11 months (crediting you 0.5% monthly due to caps), you’d have 5.5% credited. But if December sees a 7% decline, your entire credit gets wiped out even though the market is up for the year. The result: returns typically match CD rates despite the complex structure. The fine print and monthly/quarterly calculations favor the insurance company. What is counterparty risk with annuities? Counterparty risk refers to the possibility that the insurance company backing your annuity could face financial trouble. Insurance companies invest your principal in corporate bonds and other securities to earn returns higher than what they promise to pay you. Currently, many insurers are heavily invested in AI data center debt with unproven revenue streams. Historical examples like AIG, Executive Life, and Hartford show this isn’t theoretical—insurance companies can and do get into trouble, potentially affecting annuity values. Are there situations where annuities make sense? Yes, though they’re rare. Tom Dupree shares an example where a client’s widow received significantly more from an annuity than she would have from traditional investments because her husband passed away after the annuity grew but when markets had declined. However, these favorable outcomes are exceptions. The key is having an unbiased analysis of your specific contract terms and whether they truly accomplish your goals. If you own an annuity, Dupree Financial Group can review whether keeping it makes sense for your situation. What does it mean to “look under the hood” of your portfolio? Looking under the hood means seeing exactly what individual stocks and bonds you own rather than just seeing a packaged product name and account value. Tom Dupree explains: “When you get your statement, you are looking under the hood because it’s right there. You’re seeing what your money’s invested in, not what packaged product your money is in.” This transparency allows you to understand what companies you own, why you own them, and how they generate income—creating genuine comfort during market volatility. Why is “autopilot” investing dangerous for those approaching retirement? Autopilot investing—whether through target-date funds, robo-advisors, or simple index strategies—means following a prescribed path with little thought given to your specific situation. Tom notes you’re “actually being told what to do” rather than having a strategy tailored to your goals, timeline, and risk tolerance. As retirement nears, one-size-fits-all approaches can leave you overexposed to market declines or invested in ways that don’t generate needed income. Personalized investment management adapts to your changing life circumstances. What should I do if I’ve benefited from recent strong market returns? Mike Johnson advises: “You’ve been given a gift. Generally speaking, a gift in terms of the returns. And you need to respect the gift.” Respecting it means analyzing what you have, ensuring your investment mix still makes sense, and not assuming past success will automatically continue. Ask: “Do the numbers work for you at where they are?” and “Is there an investment plan, or has it just been on autopilot?” A complimentary portfolio review with Kentucky retirement planning specialists can provide this objective assessment. How do I know if fear is driving my investment decisions? Fear-driven investing shows up in two ways: fear of loss (leading to overly conservative choices like annuities that sacrifice potential growth) and fear of missing out (jumping into hot investments at precisely the wrong time). Both create poor outcomes. The alternative is what Tom calls “respect” for markets—acknowledging risks while following a thoughtful process. Mike emphasizes having “an investment plan that is dynamic enough to change when things need to change” rather than reacting emotionally to short-term events. What’s the difference between fee-based advisors and commission-based annuity sales? Annuities typically involve substantial commissions paid to the salesperson, creating incentives that may not align with your interests. Tom Dupree explains: “We are fee-based, and it takes all incentive to not—well, we’re fiduciaries also, so we must by law do what’s best for the client. That aligns our interest with the clients.” Fee-based structures mean advisors earn based on portfolio performance and client retention, not product sales. This fundamental difference affects which solutions get recommended. About The Financial Hour of The Tom Dupree Show The Financial Hour provides practical investment wisdom and retirement planning guidance for Kentucky residents approaching or living in retirement. Hosted by Tom Dupree, founder of Dupree Financial Group, with insights from portfolio manager Mike Johnson, each episode delivers actionable strategies based on decades of experience in personalized investment management and portfolio transparency. Listen to more episodes and read additional market commentary at www.dupreefinancial.com/podcast. The post Bull Markets, Investor Hubris, and the Hidden Risks of Annuities appeared first on Dupree Financial.
What happens when the data goes dark, yet markets barely flinch? In this episode, Niels and Katy unpack the month of October defined by missing economic releases, relentless equity strength and three extraordinary days of Liberation Day turbulence. They explore why price often tells the truest story, how total portfolio thinking could rewrite the role of trend, and why short term strategies faltered while precious metals surged. The conversation then shifts to the coming wave of alternatives in private wealth and the silent risk inside target date funds, asking how managed futures can reshape retirement outcomes when timing paths go wrong.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction and catching up from Boston02:00 - Life without economic data and what markets really need04:20 - Price as the only truth and the limits of official data05:45 - CalPERS, total portfolio thinking and what it means for trend08:20 - AI, data centers and the inflation story hiding in electricity10:30 - Inflation regimes, unstable prices and why trend cares about change12:40 - Year to date trend review across equities, metals, FX and bonds15:10 - Why short term traders struggled in a headline driven year20:00 - Picking “the best strategy” and why robustness matters more than Sharpe24:10 - Parameters, speed of response and treating markets differently26:20
China's ascent tells two stories. One of power, precision, and industrial brilliance - the other of imbalance, aging, and constraint. In this episode, Alan Dunne and George Magnus trace the hidden geometry of that divide. They explore how a nation that builds for the future struggles to sustain its present: an economy split between advanced manufacturing and fading momentum, between the Party's control and the market's gravity. From local debt and demographic drag to rare-earth diplomacy and the politics of currency, Magnus sketches China not as a riddle to be solved, but as a system nearing the limits of its own design.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on LinkedIn.Follow George on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Opening and disclaimer02:23 – George Magnus on career path and China focus06:56 – Data, distortions, and how to analyze China credibly11:37 – Two-track reality: advanced industry vs. a strained macro base16:56 – Why consumption rebalancing keeps failing22:29 – Stock-market boosts vs. household wealth effects25:45 – China's “QE by other means”: credit, banks, LGFVs27:40 – Who's levered? Local governments and off–balance sheet debt29:51 – Japan echoes and key differences33:23 – Trade frictions, rare-earth leverage, and U.S.–China...
What if markets move not by logic, but by pressure? In this conversation, Alan Dunne and Yoav Git trace the invisible currents behind price formation, namely how a single dollar of inflow can lift valuations fivefold, and why that distortion challenges everything the efficient market promised. From the slow mechanics of supply and demand to the moral hazards of policy and liquidity, the discussion follows money as it reshapes narrative. They revisit research that foresaw inflation's return, and question why QIS indices so often fade in practice. Beneath it all lies a quiet question: what truly drives the modern market?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00:23 – Opening and agenda for the discussion00:01:05 – Math education in the UK and XTX's push to fund young talent00:03:39 – Market performance recap for early November00:04:49 – Reflections on volatility and fixed income trading conditions00:05:13 – Introduction to the “Inelastic Markets Hypothesis”00:05:53 – Supply, demand, and elasticity explained in market terms00:10:30 – Instrumental variables and how economists measure elasticity00:14:51 – The debate: if markets clear, how can flows move prices?00:15:44 – Why equities are more inelastic than bonds00:21:04 – Questioning the 5x effect and how...
Power shifts quietly, until it doesn't. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan are joined by Adam Rozencwajg to trace the slow fracture of a system built on leverage, politics, and belief. From the echo of LBJ's confrontation with the Fed to today's invisible coercions, they explore how monetary regimes die, not in crisis, but in exhaustion. Inflation returns as behavior, debt becomes geometry, and commodities reclaim their voice. Through the lenses of shale decline, Venezuela's unrealized oil, and the steady ascent of gold, this conversation reveals a cycle completing itself. The story isn't new. Only the setting has changed.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Adam on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction03:12 - The rise of carry trades and the rhythm of global financial cycles08:44 - Political pressure, Fed history, and lessons from past monetary regimes13:47 - The end of carry, the dawn of stagflation, and the return of real assets20:47 - Inflation's return, debt dynamics, and the coming shift in the monetary system27:33 - Gold, negative real rates, and the psychology of inflation34:57 - The debt spiral, liquidity traps, and the quiet monetization of risk41:40 - Energy policy, shale decline, and the politics of “Drill Baby Drill”49:10 - Venezuela's oil chessboard and the geopolitical struggle...
Cynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management, joins the podcast to deliver a report on this week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting; be sure to read her companion piece, “The Gentle Cut: Easing Without Euphoria” on our Weekly Investment Brief feed. Our discussion tracks how the equity and bond markets behaved leading up to, and following, the meeting, and what to expect going forward. We also touch on this week's earnings reports from several big tech companies, and what positive trade talks between the United States and China might mean for the future. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyCynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio ManagementRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 01:30 – Expected reports on initial unemployment claims, GDP, and inflation were not published this week due to the ongoing government shutdown, which is on track to be the longest in history once it surpasses the 2018 record of 34 days.03:20 – Coverage of this week's FOMC meeting, including the 25 basis point cut to the federal funds rate, two diametric dissents, the themes and opinions driving that decision, and Chair Powell's warning that another rate cut in December is far from guaranteed as we see signs of a weakening labor market, elevated inflation, and a lack of data to make informed decisions due to the government shutdown.05:43 – In reaction to the FOMC meeting and Powell's assertion that a December rate cut is less likely than previously expected, the markets experienced a bit of a reversal of recent gains that were driven by that expectation.07:43 – We discuss the five candidates that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent revealed this week. They include three current and former Fed Governors, the current Director of the National Economic Council, and a BlackRock executive.10:03 – Q3 earnings reports continue to send the stock market higher. The reports from this week's big companies were Amazon and Alphabet, which were both positive, Apple, which underwhelming but not bad, and Meta and Microsoft, which were both somewhat negative. 12:25 – Positive news from trade talks between the United States and China might reduce the elevated sentiment of geopolitical risk that hit the markets in the first few months of the year on tariff threats, and which has been a question mark ever since.14:58 – The fixed income market has seen some widening in credit spreads following the FOMC meeting, but generally positive credit conditions and future corporate bond issuance herald a robust November. Additional ResourcesRead: The Gentle Cut: Easing Without Euphoria – 10/29/2025 FOMC UpdateAsk: Key Questions: Active ETFs or Mutual Funds: Which Belongs in Your Portfolio? Key QuestionsSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn
Dave Druz spent six months living with Ed Seykota - not shadowing a trading system, but watching a way of being. In this bonus episode, he shares what that experience revealed: a style built on instinct, pattern, and total psychological clarity. No screens. No signals. Just presence. Dave tried to trade that way himself - made 300%, unraveled, and walked away. What emerges is less a portrait of Seykota than a meditation on the limits of imitation, the pressure of performance, and the discipline it takes to trade like yourself - especially after witnessing someone who doesn't.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:02:21 - Introduction to part 202:57 - Anecdotes from Druz' time working with Ed Seykota06:46 - The best trader the world has ever seen17:13 - The optimal bet size21:24 - What Druz learned from working with Seykota25:45 - Key lessons for managing drawdowns27:57 - How does one gets to become an apprentice of Ed Seykota33:00 - Living with Ed Seykota35:19 - Seykota's 10.000 dollar cookie maniaCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following...
As equity markets grind higher and trend strategies navigate sharp reversals, Moritz Siebert welcomes Nick Baltas of Goldman Sachs for a conversation that moves beyond performance to examine structure. Together they unpack the machinery of the $1.3 trillion QIS industry - from index design and client behavior to the subtle forces shaping capacity and crowding. They discuss how trading speed has become a key axis of dispersion, why volatility remains the hidden cost in systematic portfolios, and what resilience in markets might really be masking. This is not just about strategy. It's about how products scale, and how ideas hold.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Follow Moritz on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps:00:23 - Moritz opens the show and introduces Nick01:16 - Nick's quick life update and setting the tone02:45 - Market resilience vs. fragility in 202504:18 - Performance rundown: CTAs, trend, equities, bonds06:10 - October reversals: metals and livestock giveback07:32 - What's working: equities, gold, copper; sugar shorts08:58 - Trend speed, April V-shape, and dispersion10:40 - Position exits, re-entries, and neutral zones11:55 - How QIS differs and why it's opaque from the outside14:40 - How big is QIS? Asset class split and caveats18:05 - Who uses QIS: from asset owners to hedge
Dave Druz has never told his story... not like this, not anywhere. For over 40 years, he traded quietly, systematically, and on his own terms. No marketing, no headlines, no need to explain. Until now. In this unique conversation with Moritz Seibert, Dave - Ed Seykota's first apprentice - shares how he built his approach, why he never identified as a trend follower, and what matters when your edge comes from standing opposite commercial hedgers. He explains why portfolio construction outranks entries, why volatility is the price of real risk, and why staying small was a choice, not a limitation. From medicine to markets, from apprenticeship to independence, this isn't just how he traded - it's why he stayed silent, and why he's speaking now.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Read more about David.Episode TimeStamps:02:11 - Introduction to Dave Druz13:50 - Druz' time in the Commodities Corporation19:14 - How did Druz discover trend following?23:57 - The core philosophy behind Druz' trend following strategy28:08 - Who wins and loses in the markets?37:37 - Determining hedging flows in commodity markets41:03 - Managing money in trend following43:40 - How does Druz size a position and get out of it?45:16 - Coping with a high level of volatility50:23 - Mitigate drawdown or take the...
Richard Brennan returns this week to explore how markets truly move - not through randomness or rationality, but through impact, feedback, and memory. What begins with a single trade builds into structure, not pattern; alignment, not noise. Drawing from neuroscience and fractal geometry, Rich challenges the idea that markets can be understood without understanding interaction. The episode builds toward a pointed exchange on position sizing - closed equity versus dynamic exposure - not as a technical footnote, but as a reflection of first principles. In a system where the path shapes the outcome, how you define risk... often reveals how you think the world works.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00:00 – Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series00:00:23 – Niels' intro, show setup, and warm welcome to Rich00:00:57 – Heatwave down under: context and small talk00:02:10 – Rich: divided brain, AI vs embodiment, and markets needing rules00:07:50 – AI's edge shrinks prediction windows; why that helps trend following00:10:35 – Gold's violent selloff; electricity vs oil as the new macro lens00:14:51 – “Trend heaven”: why the backdrop now looks robust00:18:12 – Post-GFC compression vs today's decoupling and trends00:22:43 – Impact and reflexivity: trades reshape the next trade00:28:23 – Non-ergodic markets: path dependence beats Gaussian assumptions00:35:48 – Volatility ≠...
Recorded amid the noise and pulse of the RMC conference in Munich, this episode of U Got Options follows a market learning to see itself anew. Cem Karsan speaks with Keith DeCarlucci on the return of macro discipline through EM carry and the quiet yield of volatility. Patrick Kazley traces the fault lines of diversification, where beta, convexity, and policy now intersect. And Hari Krishnan confronts the uneasy coexistence of human intuition and machine logic in risk. Together, they chart the tension between structure and surprise - a world still trading on old instincts, but guided by new intelligence.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening and introductions01:29 - Overview of guests and themes: EM, volatility, and AI03:10 - Keith DeCarlucci on EM FX, commodities, and volatility trades14:13 - Relative value in equity vol and tail-hedging strategies21:20 - Patrick Casley on portfolio construction and convexity32:24 - Reassessing 60/40, nominal illusion, and macro correlations39:44 - The new regime: long assets vs limited diversifiers44:39 - Hari Krishnan on AI, options, and the future of volatility56:06 - Upside skew, real assets, and structural market shifts01:05:21 - Closing remarks and disclaimersCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...
Nigol Koulajian, founder of AlphaQuest rejoins Niels and Alan for a conversation about markets shaped less by fundamentals than by perception. As political influence deepens and volatility is managed rather than discovered, traditional risk signals lose meaning. Sharpe ratios climb not through edge, but through exposure to hidden fragilities. Diversification is narrowing. And while systematic strategies continue to hold their line, the forces around them are shifting - slowly, structurally, and with consequences. This episode is about recognizing imbalance in real time, resisting the comfort of consensus, and asking whether today's apparent stability is masking tomorrow's risk.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:32 - Introduction to our special guest01:57 - How did the economy end up the way it is today?09:15 - Is it just a cycle?19:46 - What is the end game?23:47 - A short masterclass on skew and convexity31:45 - How trend following has changed over time39:18 - Should you optimize your portfolio from a short or long term perspective?45:19 - How Nigol navigates the strong headwinds for CTAs53:04 - Turning the risk of pod shops into opportunities56:06 - When will we revert to a more "normal" environment?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...
Maurice Obstfeld joins Alan Dunne for a clear-eyed look at how the foundations of the global monetary system are shifting - and why much of the world is quietly preparing for a future without a stable dollar anchor. Drawing on decades in policy and research, Obstfeld explains how tariffs, fiscal dominance, and political interference are eroding the norms that once held the system together. They discuss the risk of fragmentation, the creeping politicization of the Fed, and why trust - not theory - is the real currency at stake. This is a conversation about power, credibility, and what happens when both start to slip.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Read more about Maurice here.Episode TimeStamps: 02:18 - Introduction to Maurice Obstfeld05:26 - The role and evolution of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)08:14 - What has been the rationale for tariffs, and how has it impacted the economy?11:13 - Has the viewpoint on tariffs shifted?18:42 - How the changing monetary policy could undermine the dollar27:19 - Does an alternative to the dollar even exist?29:50 - What are the implications of moving away from the dollar?34:20 - A possible financial repression incoming?36:25 - The impact of an unusual approach to policy making domestically39:16 - A fork in the road for the...
Gold is ripping, but it's not about inflation. It's about trust - or the slow erosion of it. Mark Rzepczynski returns to map out the shifting terrain as central banks quietly step away from sovereign debt and build reserves in metal, not paper. Niels presses on what this says about safe assets, liquidity, and the narratives we've long taken for granted. They unpack the rise of short-term options, the distortive power of retail flow, and the fragility buried inside modern plumbing. And as trend followers chase edge in crowded markets, Mark offers a glimpse into what comes next: networks, feedback loops, and systems that learn - until they break.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:34 - What has been on our radar recently?05:43 - Is this time different for gold?14:13 - Just a gold story?16:38 - Should we redefine the definition of safe assets?19:45 - The Fed has to change26:08 - An overbearing uncertainty30:25 - Our thoughts on meme stocks35:30 - Not every innovations are good39:02 - How narratives impact how products are sold46:21 - Industry performance update49:39 - Alternative vs traditional assets01:00:43 - Every CTA is a short term trader01:05:59 - The power of seeing the connection between markets01:14:32 - What is up for next week?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...
Argentina's history is one of recurring promises and painful resets. Nicolas Dujovne has lived that cycle from the inside, serving as Finance Minister during a rare attempt at fiscal repair before markets and politics turned against it. Now, as CIO of Tenac Asset Management, he reflects with Alan Dunne on why economic reform so often falters, how short-term pain fuels long-term instability, and what it would take to finally break the trap. Beyond Argentina, the discussion widens to emerging markets at large - their hard-won stability, the new risks born of geopolitics and demographics, and the shifting fault lines of globalization.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Read more about Nicolas.Episode TimeStamps: 02:24 - Introduction to Nicolas Dujovne05:32 - Key reflections from Dujovne's former role as ministry of Treasury in Argentina11:43 - How dollarization could change the overall dynamic of the economy14:52 - How Dujovne's role as minister has shaped his investment process16:56 - The state and outlook of emerging markets21:13 - The relationship between central banks and emerging markets23:33 - How the current globalization impact the investing landscape27:43 - Evaluating the U.S from the lens of an emerging market investor33:25 - How markets respond to fiscal...
Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne to chart a market running on more than just momentum. Beneath the surface: a structural liquidity engine, political incentives aligned with asset reflation, and a surge in non-correlated flows reshaping risk itself. As institutions scramble to catch up and volatility begins to rise with price, Cem draws on lessons from the late 90s to explain why the real story is not about valuation - but positioning. From AI's misunderstood impact to the growing role of options, gold, and crypto, this is a portrait of a regime defined not by fundamentals, but by reflex and constraint.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Alan on XEpisode TimeStamps: 00:23 - What has been on our radar recently?02:00 - Industry performance update03:07 - Are current valuations a sign of a bubble?12:13 - The importance of reflexivity18:59 - The move towards non correlation is upon us22:55 - What is driving up asset prices?26:34 - When will the supply/demand imbalance normalize?31:56 - Reaching an uncontrollable situation35:47 - What are markets showing us about options?39:38 - Precious metals is the place to be42:26 - Is AI actually the game changer that we all expect it to be?52:07 - Will better technology = better performance?56:03 - A timeline for possible
China's trade surplus with the US remains stubbornly large, but its appetite for Treasuries is fading. So where are the dollars going, and what does that say about the country's evolving financial strategy? Kevin Coldiron welcomes back Dr. Zoe Liu for a nuanced look at how Beijing is managing external pressure, internal control, and the creeping disruption of dollar-backed stablecoins. Behind the headlines is a deeper story about surveillance, capital flight, and the boundaries of monetary sovereignty. As China builds shadow reserves and experiments with programmable money, the question isn't just what it fears it's what kind of system it's trying to build instead.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Zoe on Twitter and read her book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:11 - Introduction to Zoe Liu04:15 - How U.S tariffs impact shipping costs and the deficit with China17:27 - What is China actually doing with their earned dollars?27:52 - Are FX entrusted loans reinforcing the dollar based trading system?36:07 - What are stable coins and why are China worried about them?42:31 - The second level of...
Equities are up more than 50% since the April lows, yet the world feels anything but stable. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Andrew Beer examine the widening disconnect between market behavior and the backdrop it's unfolding against. From drone incursions over Denmark to political fragmentation and a rising tolerance for systemic risk, they explore why nothing seems to break - and what that complacency might be masking. Along the way, they unpack Bouchard's inelastic market hypothesis, CalPERS' pivot toward Total Portfolio thinking, and the structural trade-offs inside multi-strat hedge funds. It's a conversation about signals in the noise - and the quiet shifts that could reshape the landscape.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:04 - What has caught our attention recently?05:38 - The tension between talents11:08 - Is the popularity of certain alternative strategies just a sign of the times?22:07 - Industry performance update27:46 - Q1, Michael: Why shouldn't I sell Andrew's product when it's outperforming single managers and vise versa?30:15 - The evolution of replication strategy performance37:44 - The storytelling behind hedge fund losses41:04 - Do all markets have the ability to trend?48:57 - The rise of multi strategy hedge funds57:47 - It shouldn't work but it does, so why?01:04:27 - A reminder for Andrew's generous book offerCopyright © 2025 – CMC...
Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robinhood joins Cem Karsan at the Hood Summit in Las Vegas, for a timely conversation about the shifting edge in markets. From memories of hyperinflation in Bulgaria to unlocking tools once reserved for institutions, Vlad outlines how Robinhood is positioning retail for a different kind of market regime. Futures, short selling, 24-hour options, AI-driven trade simulation, and embedded social features aren't just upgrades - they're signals. With market structure evolving and a historic wealth transfer underway, this episode captures a platform staking its claim on the next generation of capital allocators - and the volatility they'll inherit.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:27 - Introduction to Vlad Tenev05:11 - Big announcements from Robinhood09:15 - Tenev's favorite commodities12:13 - Lets talk about options!18:20 - How AI can benefit options trading21:56 - Short selling is coming to Robinhood25:44 - The path to making Robinhood more resilient28:02 - The great transfer of wealth31:17 - How Robinhood differentiates themselves from other platforms33:35 - Creating a broader army37:23 - What is Robinhood most excited for going forward?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics
Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American, says rate cuts are not a panacea for the housing market, especially because Americans got used to nearly 50 years of declining mortgage rates until they moved from the 3% level up to their 6% range over the last few years. Now — with consumers feeling like they have golden handcuffs in older, low-rate mortgages — Fleming says gains will be slow, because improved affordability will need to be driven by income growth among consumers, and paychecks will have to increase at a rate faster than home-price appreciation to overcome rate concerns. Dan Wiener, former chairman and chief executive at Adviser Investments (now RWA Wealth Partners) — the long-time editor of The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors — discusses the piece he wrote for Barron's this week, "I Learned the Hard Way: Private Investments Probably Don't Belong in Your Portfolio," and discusses why he thinks that recent law changes that make alternatives more accessible in retirement plans are good for financial companies but bad for consumers. Research analyst Matt Zajechowski discusses a recent study showing that consumers recognize that it is their spending habits, more than inflation and market conditions, that is behind financial woes. Nearly three-quarters of Americans blame themselves for credit card debt.
Rob Carver is back from summer break for a conversation that moves between past and present through the lens of lived experience. Starting with the anniversary of Lehman's collapse, Rob and Niels unpack why strong performance often coexists with poor investor outcomes - and how timing, not strategy, remains the silent killer. They question the recent push into trend by asset management giants, weigh whether CTA underperformance marks a structural shift or a familiar cycle, and examine what the data can and can't tell us when conviction fades. If there's a theme this week, it's simple: knowing what works is not the same as using it well.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:14 - What has been on our radar recently?12:09 - Industry performance update19:23 - Q1, John: What are your recommendations for adapting a continuous forecast-based position sizing for a cash-only portfolio?23:15 - Q2, Absolute: Is short/long symmetry optimal for a strategy in which the price of the traded instruments is measured in units (fiat currencies) that are inflated (devalued)?30:19 - Q3, Lin: Got any ideas for trading a crypto portfolio?32:04 - Why investors are losing money on 42% gain ETFs39:50 - The difference between percentage return and cash return43:24 - Debunking the persistent score card46:19 - How the world has changed for CTAsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...
Richard Tomlinson joins Alan Dunne for a conversation shaped by experience, not theory. As CIO of LPPI, Richard is responsible for £27 billion in pension assets - but what stands out here is the clarity with which he navigates complexity. From the fading utility of labels like “illiquidity premium” and “hedge fund” to the trade-offs between cost, alignment, and control, this episode is about building portfolios that work in the real world - not just in a model. They explore inflation's structural drivers, the quiet rise of fiscal dominance, and why some of the industry's most comfortable assumptions no longer hold. It's not about being contrarian - it's about being clear-eyed.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Richard on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:14 - Introduction to Richard Tomlinson07:07 - What makes Tomlinson and LPPI stand out from their peers?11:52 - Who are LPPI's clients?13:26 - The investment philosophy behind LPPI's work18:06 - How LPPI's allocators work together19:05 - Getting the allocation right21:29 - Are they worried about the decline of equities?23:37 - Tomlinson perspective on global macro26:55 - Public vs private markets29:05 - Their approach to allocating domestically31:15 - How their allocation is...
Katy Kaminski returns to explore why results in trend following rarely look alike, even when the rules sound the same. Using fresh research from Man Group and Quantica, she and Niels trace the fingerprints of design choices: the pace of signals, how portfolios tilt, whether to add carry, and the impact of alternative markets. Along the way they connect these differences to today's landscape, from the Fed's looming decision to Europe's bond jitters, from gas and power's outsized role in recent Alternative CTA returns to the risks of crowding. It's a clear-eyed discussion about how systematic strategies evolve - and why dispersion matters.Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:01:12 - What has caught our attention recently?06:44 - Industry performance update12:01 - How different can managers really be in the trend following space?22:30 - Is Andrew Beer onto something about the sharpe ratio of trend indices?24:26 - Why Katy and Alex are obsessed with return dispersion30:34 - What drives dispersion the most?32:41 - Designing a trend following benchmark35:46 - Quantifying turbulence in CTAs39:46 - The importance of simplicity as a CTA42:30...
Anna Wong, Chief U.S. Economist at Bloomberg, joins Alan Dunne with a clear-eyed assessment of where policy and politics are headed. As markets bet on cuts and the Fed talks balance, she sees a different risk: a slow-burning inflation that's quietly taking hold. Anna breaks down why tariffs haven't hit as expected, how AI is already reshaping the labor force, and what's really driving service-sector price pressures. Beyond the data, the conversation turns to Fed culture, the limits of independence, and what a Trump-aligned central bank might mean in practice. Less about what's forecast - more about what's misunderstood.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Anna on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:18 - Introduction to Anna Wong03:57 - The current state of Fed06:35 - A potential flare up in inflation16:19 - Wong's read on the labour market22:50 - Fed's inflation argument makes no sense28:59 - The outlook of the housing market31:15 - Is AI destroying the labour market?34:20 - The future direction of the Fed and the potential candidates40:10 - The Fed is losing its balance48:43 - How increasing Trump representatives could impact the Fed51:58 - How monetary policy will unfold going forward54:43 - How we achieve a healthy level...
What makes an alternative investment truly valuable? In this episode, Moritz Siebert joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation that moves past market moves and into the core design of systematic strategies. They explore what diversification really means, why manager size shapes more than just capacity, and how incentives - both fees and institutional expectations - quietly reshape the industry. From carbon markets and copper dislocations to volatility suppression and position sizing, this is an episode about alignment: between strategy and structure, manager and mandate, risk and resilience. At a time when most portfolios still rely on the familiar, this is a case for what's missing.And you can get your free copy of the recent paper from DUNN Capital here!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:01:34 - What has caught our attention recently?06:26 - Industry performance update13:20 - Building the perfect portfolio composition17:18 - Insights on carbon markets21:39 - Should we start to rethink how we approach markets?28:54 - Removing complexities from a trend system34:02 - The key aspects of designing a trend system47:27 - More diversified = more risk?49:00 - What is the most Valuable Alternative Investment?57:50 - Is trend...
What if knowing you isn't the end goal...bbut shaping you is? In this episode, Kevin Coldiron speaks with Columbia professor Sandra Matz about how algorithms trained on our clicks, searches, and faces don't just predict our behavior - they influence it. They unpack how personalization narrows possibility, why convenience can come at the cost of resilience, and what happens when machines learn to mirror us better than we mirror each other. From the false promise of data consent to the quiet collapse of complexity, this is a conversation about power, psychology, and the systems quietly remaking the human experience.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Sandra on LinkedIn and read her book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:13 - Introduction to Sandra Matz08:22 - How data is a window into our psychology12:13 - What is the "right" benchmark?14:12 - How algorithms learn to understand who you are19:11 - Do algorithms care about your feelings?22:16 - The "basic bitch" effect25:10 - Computers can learn your personality from a picture of your...
As trend following begins to reassert itself, Niels and Nick Baltas dig beneath the surface of recent CTA performance - where the signals are working, why fixed income remains unresolved, and how speed is revealing deeper structural divides. But this episode goes beyond attribution. What if the industry has mistaken correlation shifts for changes in signal speed? What if the very idea of a “trend beta” is flawed? And what if compounding durable returns isn't about chasing performance, but protecting against path? This is a conversation about design over style, clarity over convention, and the quiet decisions that shape real outcomes.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:50 - Catching up05:02 - Industry performance update13:18 - How the speed of trend following strategies is changing24:13 - Is there a way to define speed differently?32:19 - Do we have the right definition of a trend index?38:20 - Brainstorming ideas on how to improve trend following benchmarks43:50 - The best car needs the best brakes49:26 - Baltas framework for enhancing trend following performanceCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the...
Mike Azlen joins Moritz Seibert for a frank look at carbon markets, and why much of what passes for climate action may be making things worse. While offsets dominate headlines, it's the regulated markets that deliver real emissions cuts by design, not intention. They unpack how cap-and-trade channels profit into abatement, why moral hazard plagues the voluntary space, and where long-only investors can find a real risk premium. From structural inefficiencies to measurable impact, this is a conversation about aligning incentives with outcomes - in a market where price isn't just a signal, but a lever.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:02:14 - Introduction to Mike Azlen04:00 - What are Carbon Markets and how do they function?13:32 - How Carbon Markets work in different countries16:35 - The complexities of carbon offsets - viable or just a scam?21:58 - Is Carbon Capture a viable solution to the climate crisis?25:44 - Why is there a risk premium in compliance carbon markets?29:31 - The difference between spot and physical permits32:35 - Why is the funding premium so large in California?33:49 - The investment philosophy behind Carbon Cap Management36:56 - It's all in the EUAs40:50 - The positive impact of Carbon Cap Management45:39 - Wrapping upCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS:...
Yoav Git and Alan Dunne sits down for a conversation that challenges familiar assumptions about curve trading, market structure, and the role of CTAs. They explore why dislocations across time horizons create pockets of alpha most models miss, and how breakout behavior in commodity spreads signals more than noise. Drawing on a recent Bank of England study, Yoav explains how different participants leave distinct footprints on the FX curve, and why CTAs, far from being passive allocators, can act as dynamic responders to changing regimes. This is systematic trading, without the shorthand.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:01:32 - What has caught our attention recently?07:10 - Industry performance update09:20 - Dont just trend it, curve it16:33 - The drivers of spread23:26 - Breaking markets into factors26:37 - Mastering speed in spread trades31:39 - Is there too much money in trend?36:47 - Key insights into FX trading44:23 - How dealers and market makers approach risk differently47:28 - The thought provoking fact about the top 5% dealers and market makers50:23 - The real process of an allocator56:39 - Using trend as part of a long term strategy01:01:35 - You should just go play...
Louis-Vincent Gave returns with a blunt assessment of a global order fraying at key seams. Construction is stalling. Trade policy is adrift. Capital is retreating from the U.S. And yet, markets hum along... propped up by AI euphoria and the illusion of fiscal permanence. In this conversation with Alan Dunne, Louis questions whether investors grasp the shifting ground beneath their feet: from rising tariff walls to energy fragility, from the quiet restructuring of China's financial system to the early signals of capital rotation into emerging markets. If this is a transition phase, most portfolios aren't built for what comes next.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Louis on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:20 - (Re)Introduction to Louis Gave03:45 - Gave's analysis of the current economic data09:45 - What causes the weakening of the economy?11:54 - The outlook for tariffs - will they eventually become stable?16:16 - The future for inflation - will it become more persistent over time?20:43 - The risk factors of energy markets25:51 - Will we see a Fed cut in September?26:58 - Powell - in or out?31:13 - We are seeing a paradigm shift in the US Dollar38:26 - The outcome of the AI revolution43:03 - Deficits are like tequila shots46:55 -...
Richard Brennan joins Niels for a conversation that redefines how trend following is understood. Behind the shared language lie four distinct archetypes - each built around a different purpose. Richard walks through them with clarity, then unpacks the trade-offs: static sizing vs. vol targeting, symmetry vs. asymmetry, speed vs. patience. A real-world portfolio test drives the point home... some strategies don't just prefer diversification, they depend on it. This episode is about design, but more than that, it's about alignment. Because in a field crowded with performance metrics, the most important question often goes unasked: what exactly is this built to do?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:58 - ChatGPT5 is on fire06:04 - The AI revolution could be the end of humanity14:23 - Industry performance update19:19 - An overview of what topics this episode will cover21:23 - The decisions that really matter in trend following27:10 - The 4 archetypes of trend following34:05 - Its not about facts, its about objectives40:09 - 1st debate: Diversification vs. concentration48:52 - 2nd debate: Absolute momentum vs. cross-sectional momentum50:21 - 3rd debate: Volatility targeting vs static small bits54:02 - What trend followers sometimes get wrong about volatility and position sizing57:48 - 4th debate: Symmetry vs asymmetry01:02:00 -...
From the first futures in 1848 to today's zero-day options, Cem Karsan, Mandy Xu, and Ed Tom chart how derivatives have moved from the market's periphery to its center of gravity. At the core is Cboe's new VIX decomposition tool, which disentangles moves driven by downside hedging, upside speculation, and shifts in the volatility surface. Through episodes like the yuan shock, Volmageddon, and 2024's “Liberation Day,” they show how positioning can amplify or mute risk, and why vol sometimes rises into rallies. This is a guided tour of volatility's inner workings, and how reading its structure can reveal the market's next move before price does.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 59:42 - Introduction to the series02:21 - Where did options come from and where are we going?10:20 - The purpose and mechanisms of the VIX decomposition tool18:55 - The history of the VIX index23:20 - The beginning of a volmageddon26:24 - A comparison between 2 recent volatility events (August 2024 and April 2025)35:03 - Key indicators for understanding risk in markets42:23 - The current state of 0DTE options50:29 - The optimal way of using VIX and hedge optionsCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put...
When official data starts serving politics, markets lose their anchor. Alan Dunne and Niels examine the quiet shift unfolding as the U.S. edges closer to emerging market behavior - firing statisticians, sidelining inconvenient numbers, and pressuring the Fed ahead of a consequential leadership reshuffle. With labor supply falling, growth stalling, and tariffs acting as stealth taxes, the Fed's playbook no longer fits the moment. Behind the scenes, hedge fund power brokers position themselves to shape what comes next. Plus, an unvarnished look at trend following's drawdown, the lazy critiques making the rounds, and why so many allocators still miss the point.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:32 - What has caught our attention recently?08:53 - Dunne's global macro overview13:31 - Is our understanding of growth and GDP outdated?17:52 - The Fed is under threat from multiple angles21:38 - Dunne's impression of Kevin Warsh as a candidate for Fed chairman26:43 - An odd juxtaposition with hedge fund titans' influences on the Fed32:35 - Industry performance update37:30 - Our takeaways from The Wall Street Journal's article on Trend Following43:35 - Why should investors even consider managed futures in the first place?45:40 - Has Dunne ever been on the verge of cutting trend?52:08 - Do long term investors really need diversifiers?Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All...
What if our most trusted economic statistic is pointing us in the wrong direction? Diane Coyle joins Kevin Coldiron to explore why GDP - long treated as a proxy for progress - now obscures more than it reveals. As economies shift toward services, intangibles, and unpaid digital labor, much of today's value creation falls outside the frame. Drawing on her new book, The Measure of Progress, Coyle makes the case for a new way of seeing - one that captures time, trust, and the real foundations of growth. The question isn't how fast we're moving. It's whether we're measuring the right road.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Diane on X and read her book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:19 - Introduction to Diane Coyle03:55 - How did the current systems of national accounts came to be?06:55 - Why the national statistics doesn't add up11:22 - The underlying problems of GDP18:42 - How software pose a problem for measuring GDP and economic activity23:25 - The challenges of cloud computing26:39 - What is disintermediation and why is it a problem for economic...
Mark Rzepczynski joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation shaped by tension between surface calm and deeper dislocation. From copper's sudden collapse to signs of stress in liquidity and leverage, they explore how market behavior is increasingly defined by fragility, not fundamentals. With Fed policy boxed in, equity optimism rising, and stablecoins quietly redrawing the contours of the monetary system, the challenge for investors isn't prediction - it's positioning. They also confront the limits of complexity in models and why, in uncertain regimes, the discipline of doing less may offer the most resilience. This is trend following in context.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:15 - What has caught our attention recently?09:08 - The tough situation of Fed independence10:43 - Industry performance update14:27 - Mark's analysis of the current trend following performance21:01 - Are we picking up long term inflation trends?23:04 - 2025 has given us something rare26:05 - The core problem that trend followers face today36:42 - The evolution of stablecoins43:52 - The definition of financial bubbles is becoming diluted53:11 - Risk - a feeling or a factor?58:42 - The seductiveness of complexity01:01:10 - Key observations from our conversation01:07:17 - What is up for next week?Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All
Steven Bell has seen the macro machine from every angle - Treasury insider, hedge fund manager, and chief economist. In this wide-ranging conversation with Alan Dunne, he traces the quiet erosion of economic orthodoxy and why AI, not tariffs, may prove the more destabilizing force. Bell explains how Fed independence is fraying, why wage dynamics matter more than headline inflation, and what investors miss when they over-index on models. With stories from trading floors and policy rooms alike, this episode captures a rare perspective: someone who's watched markets evolve, not just from charts, but from inside the decisions that moved them.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Steven on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:20 - Introduction to Steven Bell05:37 - Has the challenge of forecasting economics changed?10:27 - Was it easier to be a money manager back in the days?13:11 - Is emotion and hysteria taking over markets?16:48 - Tariffs disappearing? Forget it21:41 - The economic impact of the recent CPI data24:38 - How tariffs will impact workers and productivity28:54 - Bell's outlook for inflation32:15 - Do deficits even matter?36:51 - How messy will the Fed's handling of inflation be?44:16 - Who is a likely replacement for Powell?45:11 -
Andrew Beer and Tom Wroble return to join Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a timely examination of how trend following is adapting, and why some say it may be losing its edge. Tom unpacks new research showing a quiet drift toward slower models, raising the question of whether CTAs are evolving or converging. Andrew pushes back on the prevailing wisdom around diversification, suggesting that complexity often obscures cost rather than delivering true value. From shifting model speeds to the incentives shaping manager behavior, this is a conversation about what trend following is becoming... and what investors risk overlooking as some strategies grow more complex in pursuit of outperformance.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Follow Tom on LinkedIn,Episode TimeStamps: 01:52 - What has caught our attention recently?06:11 - Industry performance update07:44 - Wrobel's perspective on the current CTA environment09:32 - Key findings from Wrobel's recent paper14:51 - The shape is key for managing risk17:26 - How changes in the underlying managers affect replication strategies22:10 - Is there such a thing as a happy "medium" in trading speed?28:09 - Are replication strategies less challenged when selecting markets?33:35 - The structure of an allocator36:12 - How much tracking error is acceptable in replication?42:14...
What happens when an overlooked asset becomes essential? Artem Milinchuk returns to share how farmland, long seen as niche... is quietly stepping into the center of long-term portfolios. He and Niels discuss what's changed since 2020: rising inflation, tighter capital, a demographic handoff reshaping land ownership, and how tech is altering both the economics and culture of agriculture. This isn't about chasing yield. It's about owning what endures. From almonds to avocados, tariffs to treasuries, and legacy to liquidity, this episode offers a clear-eyed look at an asset class rooted in necessity, and poised for relevance.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Artem on X.Check out these resources about farmland investingEpisode Timestamps:02:24 - A recap on our previous conversation06:22 - What has changed about their strategy since our last conversation (in 2020)?10:28 - How does farmland investing actually generate income?12:32 - How does farmland investing work and operate?15:28 - Geopolitical volatility - How FarmTogether deals with tariffs19:00 - How different types of crops carries different types of risk23:22 - A deep dive into the volatility behind farmland investing27:40 - What is a fair level of volatility to expect from farmland investing?30:49 - The tech side of agriculture - where are we heading?33:58 - Major changes in...
As summer sets in, Cem Karsan joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to trace the contours of a market that feels calm but isn't. What looks like low vol masks a crowded hedge fund ecosystem and a structural vol compression regime few understand. From a VIX spike driven by unexpected Call activity to the slow-motion political pressure on Powell, the signals are subtle but mounting. They cover China's resource diplomacy, AI's quiet dislocation of white-collar work, and the rising fragility from concentration across assets, brokers, and narratives. This is a conversation about setup, not outcome... and the traps hiding in plain sight.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:19 - What has been on our radar recently?03:30 - Stay tuned for the latest UGO episode!05:04 - China is taking the long view - and succeeding with it07:04 - Tech companies are starting to buy into rare earth08:30 - The risk of high stock trading firm concentration11:01 - Industry performance update13:33 - Q1, Rick: What other asset class volatilites besides gold are mispriced at the moment?24:59 - Karsan's thoughts on the current macro environment30:33 - What could trigger a deleveraging/degrossing event?32:28 - The impact of tariffs - what do the numbers tell us?41:21 - Is a firing on the horizon for Powell?46:53 - Inflation is becoming hard to hedge56:15 - The Emperor's New
Rick Santelli joins Cem Karsan for a conversation that cuts through the noise. From the floor of the Cboe to the era of central bank primacy, Santelli reflects on how markets have been reshaped... not just by technology or policy, but by the loss of honest signals. They cover the Fed's shift from restraint to control, the unintended consequences of zero rates, and why housing, credit, and the long bond may be nearing a breaking point. This isn't a retrospective. It's a clear warning from someone who's seen what happens when incentives go unchecked.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Rick on X.Episode TimeStamps: 00:02 - Introduction to the UGO series01:26 - Introduction to Rick Santelli05:16 - The first trade Santelli ever made06:32 - The historical performance of gold08:39 - Why did Santelli move to interest rates?10:28 - How technology impacts the way we invest13:30 - A shadow Fed president14:46 - How Alan Greenspan changed everything18:47 - We are starting to pay the price of overspending22:04 - Money printing - a daisy chain of a closed circuit23:50 - How do we get out of debt and how does it end?29:06 - How do you invest wisely in today's economy?36:48 - Cost of credit: The lurking financial threat39:03 - How
Katy Kaminski returns to examine a moment in trend following that feels familiar... but isn't. Drawing on new research, she and Niels explore how drawdowns resolve, why recovery is faster when markets break, and slower when they don't, and what that asymmetry reveals about the current cycle. They unpack copper's historic 1-day move, the role of China in CTA return dispersion, and what slower, replication-based strategies might be capturing that others aren't. This episode isn't about defending trend - it's about understanding what environments it needs, and what signals suggest we're getting closer.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:48 - What has been on our radar recently?07:43 - Crazy moves in US copper09:45 - Industry performance update14:31 - How should we approach the current drawdowns in managed futures?23:01 - Why trend following is struggling at the moment31:22 - Rebalancing in trend following is key33:57 - A better alternative trend following?37:32 - The different types of impact to markets and how it reflects on the CTA industry44:41 - The key variables for understanding regimes53:21 - Replication is beating the benchmarks that they are trying to replicate58:16 - Mechanical vs. regression based replication59:33 - Defining tracking errorCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights...
Cian Walsh, Head of Hedge Funds and Private Debt at Formue, joins Alan Dunne to explore what it means to allocate capital when the macro regime, client expectations, and the structure of markets are all in flux. He explains why the 60/40 model obscures more than it reveals, how he is adapting institutional frameworks for thousands of private clients, and what changes when you view hedge funds not as a bucket, but as a function. From the discipline of sizing trend in a sideways regime to the slow shift from vintage private credit to evergreen, this is a conversation about building portfolios that can hold together when the ground moves.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Cian on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:12 - Introduction to Cian Walsh05:30 - How does institutional asset allocation stand out?06:39 - Asset allocation in a shifting regime09:33 - A move towards mass customization10:26 - The 60/40 portfolio is dying - what is next?13:28 - The challenges of implementing a total portfolio approach17:16 - Dealing with underperforming strategies20:09 - More growth or more all-weather?23:30 - Why Walsh believes in systematic trading28:51 - Do Walsh hold any long volatility strategies?30:04 - Walsh's process for selecting managers36:55...
Markets have recovered fast - maybe too fast. Alan and Niels unpack what sits beneath the surface: a bond market brushing off record deficits, volatility draining from asset prices, and trend followers caught between sharp reversals and shrinking conviction. They explore how sentiment, structure, and speed are shaping today's trading environment, and what most investors still underestimate about liquidity, macro policy, and risk. With fresh research in hand, they ask whether drawdowns are misunderstood, if diversification has become an illusion, and why clarity often emerges only after the pain. We do recognize that we had some technical issues with this recording and appreciate you for sticking with us.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:57 - What has caught our attention recently?04:38 - Industry performance update07:38 - Is trend thriving?09:57 - Dunne's global macro overview16:33 - A catastrophic year for the dollar18:12 - Is this time different for trend following drawdowns?27:26 - The value of long term track records34:30 - Is trend following flawed?37:48 - What are investors actually interested in?44:32 - What is up for next week?Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
To make informed decisions about adding crypto ETFs to their portfolios, investors should weigh various factors including diversification and volatility. Today's Stocks & Topics: PBF - PBF Energy Inc., Market Wrap, 4 Key Questions to Consider Before Allocating Crypto in Your Portfolio, CXDO - Crexendo Inc., TGT - Target Corp., Labor Market, Reverse Split, BSRTF - BSR Real Estate Investment Trust, PANW - Palo Alto Networks Inc.Our Sponsors:* Check out Avocado Green Mattress: https://avocadogreenmattress.com* Check out Ka'Chava and use my code INVEST for a great deal: https://www.kachava.com* Check out Progressive: https://www.progressive.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands
In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Asim Ghaffar, the founder and CIO of AG Capital, a Boston-based macro hedge fund. Asim explains why he believes insourcing rather than outsourcing the organizational processes of running a hedge fund business is critical and how it can add long-term value to the business. He also describes why sales and branding are key components to a successful investment management business, and how AG Capital connects with clients and prospective investors. In the second part of the conversation, Asam and Moritz speak about AG Capital's style of trading, how they position size, why they take concentrated positions, how their methods differ from those of systematic trend following funds, and what their current long-term and short-term investment themes are, touching on gold, Bitcoin, copper, natural gas, and some other markets.-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:02:13 - Introduction to Asim Ghaffar and AG Capital06:48 - What defines a great hedge fund?12:13 - How do you find clients as a hedge fund?18:32 - Creating world class in-house operations25:32 - Ghaffar's framework for building portfolios35:05 - How Ghaffar differs from a classical trend follower39:16 - Why Ghaffar enforces a fixed number of positions41:40 - What is so cool about stocks?46:16 - Why Ghaffar sometimes decreases an exposure51:36 - How Ghaffar approaches gold54:05 - Why AG Capital stays away from Bitcoin01:01:54 - Is China actually more democratic than the US?Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can
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