Podcasts about your portfolio

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Best podcasts about your portfolio

Latest podcast episodes about your portfolio

Top Traders Unplugged
IL46: The Business Model Trap: Why Short Ideas Start in the Real World ft. Mark Roberts

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 25, 2026 62:25 Transcription Available


In today's episode we talk to Mark Roberts, founder of Off Wall Street, a legendary provider of short selling research to hedge funds. Seven months before Enron became the biggest bankruptcy in US corporate history, Off Wall Street published a report recommending the shares be sold. The success of this call made Mark and Off Wall Street synonymous with original and rigorous research. We talk to Mark about his unusual personal background, how being a hippie in Berkeley in the 1960s prepared him for identifying overvalued companies two decades later. He explains why questionable accounting and high valuations are the “symptoms, not the disease” and compares today's markets with those of the Dotcom era. His new book, Off Wall Street How To Win At Short Selling By Betting Against The Crowd was just released in February 2026.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Mark on LinkedIn and read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 01:41 - Introducing Mark Roberts, Off Wall Street, Enron, and the book03:35 - An unconventional path: French literature, skepticism, and early life choices07:40 - The first “short sale”: selling a failing steel business and learning risk firsthand11:10...

InvestTalk
Behavioral Finance: Your Brain vs. Your Portfolio

InvestTalk

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 21, 2026 45:00 Transcription Available


Markets are driven by math, but investors are driven by emotion. We will explore the most common psychological biases—like loss aversion and herd mentality—that destroy wealth and how to automate your strategy to avoid them.Today's Stocks & Topics: Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), Market Wrap, American Electric Power Company, Inc. (AEP), The Southern Company (SO), KPP Newsletter, Behavioral Finance: Your Brain vs. Your Portfolio, Devon Energy Corporation (DVN), Principal SAM Conservative Growth A (SAGPX), Key Benchmark Numbers: Treasury Yields, Gold, Silver, Oil and Gasoline, Meta Platforms, Inc. (META), Copper, Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY), Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI).Our Sponsors:* Check out Anthropic: https://claude.ai/invest* Check out Pebl: https://hipebl.ai* Check out Quince: https://quince.com/INVESTAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

Top Traders Unplugged
SI388: Peak Bubble? Why Markets Feel Different in 2026 ft. Mark Rzepczynski & Alan Dunne

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 21, 2026 63:22 Transcription Available


Today Alan and Mark step back from the noise to examine a market environment that feels subtly but meaningfully different. From AI euphoria giving way to harder questions, to gold's steady rise and a surprising divergence between US and emerging market inflation, the conversation centers on rotation, uncertainty, and shifting assumptions about safety. They explore whether Treasuries still anchor portfolios the way they once did, how fiscal pressures could reshape monetary policy, and why regime thinking matters for systematic investors. Beneath it all is a reminder that correlations change, narratives evolve, and adaptability remains the most durable edge in uncertain markets.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Mark on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Introduction & market check-in02:52 – February performance: CTAs, trend following & commodities04:53 – Peak bubble? AI, metals & speculative excess07:10 – Gold demand, central banks & safe-haven flows10:40 – The AI narrative shift & tech repricing13:22 – Global rotation: US vs Europe & emerging markets15:22 – EM inflation now lower than US — why it matters21:48 – Why macro still matters (regime thinking vs stock picking)31:49 – Fiscal vs monetary dominance explained41:59 – $700B in Treasury issuance — scale of the debt...

Clearly Connected
Spending Without Shame - When Being “Good” With Money Backfires

Clearly Connected

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 19, 2026 21:20


Have you ever felt guilty for spending money on something small — like a coffee — even when you could afford it?You're not bad with money. You've just been taught that restriction equals responsibility.In this episode of Dare to Be Free, we explore why spending shame runs so deep, how restriction quietly becomes part of your identity, and why denying yourself pleasure actually slows your path to wealth and freedom. I share my own journey from hyper-restriction to pleasure-based wealth — and how learning to spend without shame became a turning point that accelerated everything.✨ Want to go deeper?Watch my talk “Why Pleasure Should Be in Your Portfolio” for a deeper dive into how pleasure accelerates wealth and financial freedom.And for weekly insights on wealth, pleasure, and freedom, join my newsletter at carriebradley.com.

Top Traders Unplugged
GM97: Why Isn't Anything Breaking? ft. Steen Jakobsen

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 18, 2026 53:09 Transcription Available


The global order is shifting in plain sight. In this Global Macro conversation, Steen Jakobsen, inventor of the Outrages Predictions, joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne to examine the slow grind reshaping productivity, debt, currencies, and political stability. From dollar regime risk to state capitalism, from market concentration to commodity repricing, the discussion moves beyond headlines to structural fault lines. Is gold signaling debasement? Can the U.S. sustain its debt path? Does AI lift productivity or hollow it out? Rather than predict collapse, Jakobsen outlines a drawn-out transition where capital reallocates, volatility hides beneath the surface, and political systems are tested long before markets finally react.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.Follow Alan on LinkedIn.Follow Steen on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 01:38 - Introducing Steen Jakobsen03:45 - From trading floors to outrageous predictions06:32 - Dollar hedging and regime shift signals08:06 - Davos as a macro...

Top Traders Unplugged
SI387: The Cost-Benefit of Being Trendy ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 14, 2026 73:41 Transcription Available


Today, we examine a year that looked chaotic but felt familiar to trend followers. Gold surged, equities rotated globally, and non-US markets quietly gained momentum. Yet beneath strong returns lies a deeper debate about model design, short versus long horizon signals, and whether innovation in liquid alternatives serves investors or sales desks. From AI disruption to product engineering and allocator behavior, this episode explores where systematic strategies truly create value and where structural incentives distort outcomes. In a changing macro regime, clarity of purpose may matter more than ever.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introducing the Systematic Investor series01:17 - AI disruption and systematic investing06:52 - The shifting perception of US risk09:21 - Winter Olympics and market metaphors12:59 - Hedge funds versus private equity19:23 - 2025 review and the importance of risk allocation22:17 - Why CTAs did not fully capture gold29:48 - Short term versus long term trend models35:27 - Letting risk run versus investor palatability44:43 - The problem with liquid alternatives51:21 - Product design versus fiduciary duty59:06 - QIS, innovation and investor sophistication01:04:41 - Model risk and the myth of risk premia01:10:51 - Hopes for a trending year aheadCopyright © 2025 – CMC

Top Traders Unplugged
GM96: The End of the Hedge: When Bonds Stop Protecting Portfolios

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 11, 2026 61:06 Transcription Available


A familiar portfolio map is being redrawn. Ian Harnett traces the regime shift from disinflation and reliable bond hedges to a world where inflation pressures linger, supply chains shorten, and capital becomes a policy tool. The conversation moves from China's exported deflation to Europe's structural constraints, then into America's strategy of attracting investment with tariff leverage. Beneath it all sits a political question: what happens if the governing coalition fractures ahead of the midterms. Harnett argues that is the moment the dollar turns from anchor to risk.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on LinkedIn.Follow Ian on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - The gray swan: political fracture and the point to sell the dollar00:37 - Show intro and risk disclaimer01:33 - Setting the frame: global macro, geopolitics, and regime change04:34 - The new regime: inflation risk and the stock-bond relationship breaking06:39 - Structural inflation drivers: deglobalization, trade weaponization, China's deflation export09:14 - Capital as a battleground: surcharges, controls, and Europe's capital markets problem12:02 - Europe's catalyst problem: why it may take a crisis to build a true safe asset14:44 - America's playbook: inbound capital, tariff bargaining, and “neo-royalism”18:32...

Top Traders Unplugged
SI386: When Position Sizing Saves You ft. Rob Carver

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 7, 2026 68:50 Transcription Available


Today, we are joined by Rob Carver to unpack one of the most volatile weeks seen in commodity markets in years. The conversation centers on silver's sharp rise and sudden collapse, using it as a case study in volatility targeting, liquidity risk, and disciplined position sizing. From Freaky Friday to broader dislocations across assets, they examine why systematic risk management matters when markets move faster than narratives. The discussion expands into diversification, correlation assumptions, alternative markets, and new research on trend portfolio construction, offering a grounded reminder that survival often matters more than precision.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series03:56 - Freaky Friday in precious metals04:29 - How Rob trades silver in a volatility adjusted framework10:25 - When volatility forces position reduction12:38 - Liquidity myths in hot commodity markets16:25 - Risk management lessons from silver's collapse22:28 - Dislocations across assets beyond metals24:54 - Fed chair speculation and muted market reactions31:33 - Discretionary versus systematic decision making34:03 - Trend barometer and market breadth update37:34 - Estimating portfolio correlation from PnL41:18 - Correlation versus volatility predictability45:13 - MAN Group paper...

Top Traders Unplugged
UGO09: Playing the Players in a Narrative Market ft. Ben Hunt

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 4, 2026 61:00 Transcription Available


Cem Karsan sits down with Ben Hunt, founder of Epsilon Theory, to explore how narratives shape markets, politics, and decision making itself. Drawing on decades of experience across academia, hedge funds, and applied AI, Ben explains why stories, not data, increasingly drive outcomes in modern markets. The conversation spans unstructured data, inference, common knowledge, and the mechanics of narrative momentum. Together, they examine consumer expectations, inflation silence, geopolitical signaling, and the slow shift away from US dominance. What emerges is a framework for understanding markets as reflexive systems, where perception often matters more than reality.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to U Got Options and the trading floor setting02:18 - Ben Hunt's background and Epsilon Theory origins04:11 - Markets as the ultimate multiplayer game06:15 - Inference, unstructured data, and narrative analysis08:18 - Why sentiment and word counts miss the real signal11:16 - Mapping meaning and truthy stories15:00 - LLMs as operating systems, not oracles18:01 - Giving money back and when models stop working21:16 - Applying narrative tools beyond markets24:10 - Consumer weakness versus bullish expectations30:43 - Inflation, recession, and why markets do not care33:29 - Dormant stories and volatility discovery34:26 -

Top Traders Unplugged
SI385: When Volatility Becomes the Signal ft. Katy Kaminski

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 31, 2026 64:55 Transcription Available


Katy Kaminski joins us to assess the early signals shaping markets in 2026. The conversation explores the resurgence of commodity trends, the role of volatility estimation, and why diversification across markets and speeds matters more than ever. Drawing on new research, they examine dispersion within the CTA universe, the limits of replication, and how volatility targeting quietly determines outcomes. From precious metals to currencies, from crisis alpha to geopolitical risk, this episode offers a grounded look at why trend following thrives during disruption and why regime change remains its natural habitat.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series00:39 - Weather disruptions and market perspective02:31 - Precious metals and extreme commodity moves04:28 - Gold, central banks, and monetary regime shifts07:43 - Replication versus full CTA diversification09:47 - Liquidity differences across metals12:03 - Metals leading trend performance in 202615:01 - Multi-sector trends and diversification benefits20:13 - Media attention and the return of trend following23:29 - Research insights on speed and dispersion31:44 - Trend speed and timing tradeoffs40:59 - Market concentration and narrow universes43:19 - Volatility estimation as a hidden...

Wealthion
Cullen Roche: The Market Divide Leaving Investors Behind | The Hidden Risks in Your Portfolio

Wealthion

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 29, 2026 53:06


Top Traders Unplugged
GM95: When Consensus Gets the Cycle Wrong ft. Dario Perkins

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 28, 2026 63:46 Transcription Available


In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Dario Perkins to examine why the global macro consensus may be fundamentally misreading the current cycle. The conversation moves from US fiscal stimulus and Federal Reserve credibility to the limits of the K-shaped economy narrative. Perkins challenges prevailing assumptions around AI-driven productivity, labor market weakness, and falling inflation, arguing that policy choices are pushing economies toward overheating rather than stagnation. The discussion extends to bond markets, term premia, Japan's normalization, Europe's fiscal pivot, and China's rebalancing dilemma. What emerges is a picture of renewed growth, rising risks, and a cycle whose ending is now becoming visible.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on LinkedIn.Follow Dario on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening remarks and context02:25 - Global uncertainty and growth expectations05:00 - The K-shaped economy under scrutiny08:12 - Fiscal stimulus, tariffs, and timing effects11:07 - Fed independence and political pressure17:06 - The race to appoint the next Fed chair26:35 - Productivity data and the AI narrative35:51 - Labor market stall speed debate39:56 - Bond markets, term premia, and inflation risk46:03 - Japan's normalization and demographic...

Top Traders Unplugged
SI384: Building an Inflation-Proof Portfolio ft. Yoav Git

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 24, 2026 61:18 Transcription Available


In this episode, Niels hosts Yoav Git to explore inflation risk, bond fragility, and the changing role of trend following in a world defined by supply shocks and declining trust. Drawing on recent research and market behavior, the conversation examines why traditional bond allocations struggle during inflationary regimes and how commodity trend strategies may offer structural resilience. The discussion spans geopolitics, deglobalization, energy markets, fixed income autocorrelation, and the limits of forecasting macro outcomes. Rather than predicting inflation's path, the episode focuses on portfolio construction that can endure multiple regimes. What emerges is a disciplined argument for robustness over precision in an increasingly unstable global system.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction and series context01:08 - Inflation back on the radar02:38 - Recent podcast influences and inflation narratives06:56 - Geopolitics, trust, and market fragmentation08:52 - Commodities, volatility, and supply driven moves10:48 - Trend performance and early 2026 conditions11:30 - Fixed income, FX, and emerging market trends17:26 - The all weather portfolio problem18:18 - Bonds, inflation regimes, and correlation breakdowns22:39 - Commodity trend as a defensive building block27:01 - Are markets signaling higher inflation ahead30:04 - What...

Ethical & Sustainable Investing News to Profit By!
January 2026 Sustainable Stock and ETF Picks

Ethical & Sustainable Investing News to Profit By!

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 22, 2026 24:59


January 2026 Sustainable Stock and ETF Picks… Covers the world's most sustainable companies, cleantech and renewable energy stocks, and more. By Ron Robins, MBA Transcript & Links, Episode 163, January 23, 2026 Hello, Ron Robins here. Welcome to my podcast episode 163, published on January 23, 2025, titled "January 2026 Sustainable Stock and ETF Picks." This podcast is presented by Investing for the Soul. Investingforthesoul.com is your go-to site for vital global, ethical, and sustainable investing mentoring, news, commentary, information, and resources. Remember that you can find a full transcript and links to content, including stock symbols and bonus material, on this episode's podcast page at investingforthesoul.com/podcasts. Also, a reminder. I do not evaluate any of the stocks or funds mentioned in these podcasts, and I don't receive any compensation from anyone covered in these podcasts. Furthermore, I will reveal any investments I have in the investments mentioned herein. I have a huge crop of 24 articles for you in this podcast! Note: Some companies are covered more than once. Now with so many articles to potentially cover, I've chosen 6 to quote from. The other 18 can be found with their titles and links on the webpage for this podcast edition. ------------------------------------------------------------- The 2026 Global 100 list puts speed in the spotlight The first article I'm quoting from is hot off the press and is about one of my favourite company rankings! It's titled The 2026 Global 100 list puts speed in the spotlight on corporateknights.com. The introduction is by Tristan Bronca. Here's some of what he says. "As the global economic transition accelerates, more companies are recognizing that sustainability isn't just good marketing – it's good for business, too… This was the animating spirit of the new methodology behind the Corporate Knights Global 100 ranking. The revised methodology introduces 'sustainable revenue momentum' to measure how fast companies are growing their sustainable revenues. A change of method Last year, sustainable revenues and investments together accounted for 50% of the score, and the other 50% was scored across 22 common environmental, governance and social performance indicators (KPIs) such as water use, emissions, workplace fatalities, and diversity on the board and among executives. The change has reordered the deck in a big way… A dramatic departure? 'In terms of performance, the G100 companies are back in top form, beating the benchmark MSCI AWCI index over the past year,' Toby Heaps says, referring to a stock market index of 85% of global investable equities across almost 50 countries." End quotes. Incidentally, the top five companies are ERG SpA (ERG.MI), Pandora A/S (PNDORA.CO), EDP Renováveis SA (EDP.LS), Fluence Energy, Inc. (FLNC), and Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp. (2633.TW). ------------------------------------------------------------ Top 4 Clean Tech Companies to Watch in 2026 This next article brings us back to highly familiar territory. It's titled Top 4 Clean Tech Companies to Watch in 2026 on carboncredits.com and is by Jennifer L. Here are some brief quotes. "1. NextEra Energy (NEE) is the largest clean energy company in the world. It owns and operates wind farms, solar fields, and battery storage systems across the United States… NextEra has also increased its dividend for more than 26 years in a row. 2. First Solar (FSLR) is one of the top makers of solar panels worldwide. It uses a technology called thin‑film photovoltaic modules. These panels are lighter, use fewer raw materials, and often perform better in hot climates compared to traditional silicon panels. The company builds large solar power plants that send power to utilities and corporate customers… Financially, First Solar is a strong player. Its market cap was around $24 billion in 2025, and it has shown double‑digit revenue growth. 3. Bloom Energy (BE) makes a special type of power generator called a solid‑oxide fuel cell. These units produce electricity efficiently and with low emissions. Customers include data centers, large buildings, and industrial sites that need reliable power without high carbon output. Bloom's fuel cells can run on hydrogen or biogas, which makes them flexible for future clean energy systems… Premium financial news reported that its stock jumped more than 410 % in 2025 after strong earnings results. 4. Plug Power (PLUG) focuses on hydrogen fuel cell systems. Its products are designed to replace traditional batteries and fossil fuels in heavy equipment, forklifts, and industrial vehicles. The company is also building hydrogen production and fueling infrastructure across North America and Europe. This supports a broader 'green hydrogen' economy… Plug Power has faced financial challenges, including consistent net losses and stock price volatility… Its long‑term growth story depends on hydrogen demand and policy support worldwide." End quotes. ------------------------------------------------------------- 3 ESG Stocks to Add to Your Portfolio for Sustainable Returns in 2026 - December 30, 2025 The third article I've chosen to quote from is titled 3 ESG Stocks to Add to Your Portfolio for Sustainable Returns in 2026 - December 30, 2025 on zacks.com. It's By Aniruddha Ganguly. Now, some quotes from the article. "1. NVIDIA (NVDA) achieved 100% renewable electricity for all its global offices and controlled data centers in fiscal 2025. This Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) company targets to reduce direct emissions by 50% for operations (Scope 1) and electricity consumption (Scope 2) by 2030… The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 increased a couple of cents to $4.66 per share, indicating 55.9% growth from the figure reported in fiscal 2025. (NVDA - Free Report). 2. IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX) is a developer, manufacturer and distributor of products and services primarily for the companion animal veterinary, livestock and poultry, water testing and dairy markets. IDEXX has set goals to reduce Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions and aims to source 100% renewable electricity by 2030… This Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) company plans to improve diversity and representation of underrepresented groups… IDEXX shares have surged 66% in the trailing 12-month period. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings has been steady at $14.42 per share, indicating 11.7% growth from the 2025 consensus estimate figure of $12.93 per share. (IDXX - Free Report). 3. Microsoft (MSFT) targets to become carbon negative, water positive, and generate zero waste by 2030… This Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company is leveraging AI for Good Lab and tools like the Microsoft Planetary Computer to drive biodiversity conservation… Microsoft shares have returned 14.7% in a year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 increased a couple of cents to $15.61 per share, indicating 14.4% growth from the figure reported in fiscal 2025. (MSFT - Free Report)." End quotes ------------------------------------------------------------- Top Renewable Energy Stocks To Watch Today This next article picks a few lesser-known, and for some sustainable investors, a few controversial companies for review. It's titled Top Renewable Energy Stocks To Watch Today on marketbeat.com and is by MarketBeat. Here are several brief quotes from the article. "1. Quanta Services (PWR) provides infrastructure solutions for the electric and gas utility, renewable energy, communications, and pipeline and energy industries in the United States, Canada, Australia, and internationally. Read Our Latest Research Report on PWR. 2. WEC Energy Group (WEC) through its subsidiaries, provides regulated natural gas and electricity, and renewable and nonregulated renewable energy services in the United States. It operates through Wisconsin, Illinois, Other States, Electric Transmission, and Non-Utility Energy Infrastructure segments. Read Our Latest Research Report on WEC. 3. NOV (NOV) designs, constructs, manufactures, and sells systems, components, and products for oil and gas drilling and production, and industrial and renewable energy sectors in the United States and internationally. Read Our Latest Research Report on NOV. 4. Clearway Energy (CWEN) operates in the renewable energy business in the United States. The company operates through Conventional and Renewables segments. Read Our Latest Research Report on CWEN. 5. HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital (HASI) through its subsidiaries, engages in the investment of energy efficiency, renewable energy, and sustainable infrastructure markets in the United States. Read Our Latest Research Report on HASI. 6. Ameresco (AMRC) a clean technology integrator, provides a portfolio of energy efficiency and renewable energy supply solutions in the United States, Canada, Europe, and internationally. Read Our Latest Research Report on AMRC. 7. Gibraltar Industries (ROCK) manufactures and provides products and services for the renewable energy, residential, agtech, and infrastructure markets in the United States and internationally. Read Our Latest Research Report on ROCK." End quotes. ------------------------------------------------------------- Top Wind Energy Stocks Poised to Benefit From Clean Energy Transition My fifth article is titled Top Wind Energy Stocks Poised to Benefit From Clean Energy Transition on finance.yahoo.com. It's by Avisekh Bhattacharjee and originally published on zacks.com. In the US, the wind industry could be gaining ground despite President Trump's protestations. Here are some quotes from the article. "1. NextEra Energy (NEE) is a public utility holding company engaged in the generation, transmission, distribution and sale of electric energy. The Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) company's competitive energy business, NextEra Energy Resources LLC (NEER), is the leading generator of wind energy globally. NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE): Free Stock Analysis Report. 2. PG&E (PCG) operates as the parent holding company of California's largest regulated electric and gas utility, Pacific Gas and Electric Company.  The Zacks Rank #2 company's exposure in wind energy stems from the procurement of power from several renewable resources. Pacific Gas & Electric Co. (PCG): Free Stock Analysis Report. 3. Arcosa (ACA) is a leading manufacturer of infrastructure-related products and services that serve the energy, construction and transportation markets. This Zacks Rank #2 company's Engineered Structures business continues to benefit from strong demand for its wind towers and engineered structures. Arcosa, Inc. (ACA): Free Stock Analysis Report. 4. Constellation Energy (CEG) is a well-recognised provider of electric power, natural gas and energy management services to 2 million customers across the continental United States. Constellation Energy operates 27 wind projects across 10 states… This Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company is launching a $350 million initiative to increase the output and lifespan of its portfolio of renewable energy sources. Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG): Free Stock Analysis Report." End quotes. ------------------------------------------------------------- AI infrastructure stocks Lumentum, Celestica, Seagate beat Nvidia 2025 My final review article covers some old favourites. Its title is AI infrastructure stocks Lumentum, Celestica, Seagate beat Nvidia 2025 on cnbc.com. It's by Kif Leswing. Here are some brief quotes. 1. Nvidia has been the biggest infrastructure winner in the artificial intelligence boom, soaring in value by almost thirteenfold since the end of 2022 to a market cap of $4.6 trillion. 2. Lumentum based in San Jose, California, makes switches, transceivers and other optical laser-based parts that are needed for fiber-optic cables. Customers have typically been telecommunications carriers and device makers like Apple, which previously used Lumentum parts in its FaceID sensor… Lumentum's stock price has jumped 372% this year… lifting the company's market cap past $28 billion. Sales surged 58% in the most recent quarter from a year earlier to $533 million.  3. Western Digital is one of three major hard drive manufacturers, along with Seagate and Toshiba. Shares of the 55-year-old company are up almost 300% this year… 'Data is the fuel that powers AI, and it is HDDs that provide the most reliable, scalable and cost-effective data storage solution,' CEO Irving Tan said in October on an earnings call… Revenue is expected to increase about 23% in fiscal 2026, with growth slowing to 13% in 2027. 4. Micron is one of three major memory producers, alongside Samsung and SK Hynix, but the only one based in the U.S… Analysts from Morgan Stanley said in a December note that Micron's results showed the best revenue and profit upside in the 'history of the U.S. semis industry' — aside from Nvidia. Revenue is expected to almost double in the year ending in August, before dramatically slowing to 24% in fiscal 2027 and less than 1% in 2028, according to LSEG. 5. Seagate is also benefiting from booming demand for storage. The stock is up 231% this year. Sales rose 21% to $2.63 billion in the company's fiscal third quarter, which ended Oct. 3. The company said at the time that 80% of its sales go to the data center market. 'There is no question that AI is reshaping hard drive demand by elevating the economic value of data and data storage,' CEO Dave Mosley said on a call with analysts… Analysts expect 21% revenue growth this fiscal year, followed by increases of about 15% and 6% in the next two years, according to LSEG. 6. Celestica founded in 1994 as an IBM subsidiary, makes switches that connect networks together and manage the data and traffic flowing through them. The stock is up more than 230% this year… Analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote in a note Friday that Celestica supplies parts for Google's ASIC. 'The company should benefit in 2026 from being the leading provider of Google TPU rack level solutions,' the analysts wrote." End quotes. ------------------------------------------------------------- More articles from around the world with Sustainable Investment Picks for January 2026. 1. Title: These Infrastructure Stocks Could Quietly Power the AI Revolution on fool.com. By Matt DiLallo. 2. Title: Top Beaten-Down Data Center Infrastructure Stocks on seekingalpha.com. By Steven Cress. 3. Title: Meet the four most sustainable funds on the market for 2025 corporateknights.com. By CK Staff. 4. Title: 3 Green Energy Stocks to Watch for a Cleaner, More Sustainable 2026 on finance.yahoo.com. By Pulkit Chamria. 5. Title: Analysts See Triple-Digit Revenue Growth in 2026 for These 3 AI Infrastructure Stocks on wallst.com. By Rich Duprey. 6. Title: The Top Clean-Energy Stocks for 2026, According to an Investment Advisor on businessinsider.com. By Samuel O'Brient. 7. Title: Top 10 Companies for CSR and Sustainability in 2025 on thecsrjournal.in. By Hency Thacker. 8. Title: This Underrated Industrial Stock Could Be the Purest Play on AI Infrastructure on fool.com. By John Bromels. 9. Title: Sustainable Investing Trends to Watch in 2026 on sustainalytics.com. By Morningstar Sustainalytics. 10. Title: The most sustainable equity funds in 2026 on corporateknights.com. Introduction by Saint Ekpali. 11. Title: Top 10: Renewable Energy Companies on energydigital.com. By Charlie King. 12. Title: The Grid Gap Gamble: Why Bloom Energy is Defying the Clean Tech Downturn in 2026 on markets.financialcontent.com. By MarketMinute. 13. Title: Some of the Best Sustainable Companies Call This ETF Home on etftrends.com. By Todd Shriber. 14. Title: Cisco Systems a Top Socially Responsible Dividend Stock With 2.2% Yield (CSCO) on nasdaa.com. By BNK Invest. 15. Title: Top 10: Sustainable Investments 2026 on sustainabilitymag.com. By Charlie King. 16. Title: Why Bloom Energy (BE) Stock Is Trading Up Today on finance.yahoo.com. By Petr Huřťák. 17. Title: Barclays Calls This 1 AI Server Stock 'Best in Class' Amid Upgrade to 'Overweight' Rating on finance.yahoo.com. By Aditya Raghunath. 18. Title: A clean technology company on the verge of transformational growth on stockhouse.com. By Trevor Abes. ------------------------------------------------------------- Ending Comment These are my top news stories with their stock and fund tips for this podcast, "January 2026 Sustainable Stock and ETF Picks." Please click the like and subscribe buttons wherever you download or listen to this podcast. That helps bring these podcasts to others like you. And please click the share buttons to share this podcast with your friends and family. Let's promote ethical and sustainable investing as a force for hope and prosperity in these tumultuous times! Contact me if you have any questions. Thank you for listening. My next podcast will be on February 27th. See you then. Bye for now.   © 2026 Ron Robins, Investing for the Soul

Top Traders Unplugged
IL45: Where Markets Reveal Human Error ft. Alex Imas

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 21, 2026 54:27 Transcription Available


Today we discuss one of the most popular and influential economic books of the last few decades - The Winner's Curse. Originally published in 1994, a new version has just been released and we are joined by co-author Alex Imas who wrote the new edition alongside Nobel Prize winner Richard Thaler. When are we likely to spend a windfall and when are we likely to save it? When is it most dangerous to bid for business against competitors? And are ‘arbitrage' opportunities in markets really a free lunch?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Alex on X.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening remarks and framing the law of one price01:42 - Introducing the Ideas Lab series and Alex Imas03:44 - From pre med to behavioral economics08:15 - Mental accounting and how people really treat money10:45 - Housing wealth, illiquidity, and self control15:39 - Savings behavior, capital gains, and inequality17:11 - Attention, salience, and why nudges work or fail22:07 - Nudges versus incentives and policy confusion25:18 - The winner's curse and common value auctions30:01 - Auctions, IPOs, and competitive overbidding33:44 - The law of one price and market mispricing36:50...

Top Traders Unplugged
SI383: When Signals Matter More Than Stories ft. Nick Baltas

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 17, 2026 59:59 Transcription Available


Today, we are joined by Nick Baltas to examine how narratives, signals, and structural design are reshaping trend following at the start of 2026. The conversation moves from investor storytelling and information digestion to a sober review of what truly drove dispersion in 2025. We explore why speed and universe choice mattered more than expected, why recent outcomes may be misleading, and why reacting to performance is often a mistake. The discussion then turns technical, unpacking new academic research on nonlinear momentum, signal construction, and the deeper mechanics behind trend following's defensive behavior during stress. The episode closes with a reminder that discipline, not prediction, remains the strategy's core advantage.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction and welcome01:05 - A disrupted start to 202603:10 - Narratives, information, and price formation07:06 - Why stories often fail to move markets09:31 - Recurring themes and market attention10:59 - Strong early conditions for trend following12:01 - Dispersion across strategies in 202515:06 - Familiar patterns in an unfamiliar year18:42 - Speed versus universe in trend design23:17 - Why recent outperformance can mislead31:08 - Institutional views on trend following40:21 - Nonlinear time series momentum research50:30 - Autonomy of trend and crisis...

Top Traders Unplugged
GM94: When Capitalism Reboots and Crashes Again ft. Mark Blyth

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 14, 2026 67:40 Transcription Available


As the long era of neoliberal certainty frays, Mark Blyth argues that we are drifting back toward a 19th century world of rival blocs, imperial habits and dangerous illusions. In this conversation, he traces how repeated “software crashes” of capitalism produced inflation, austerity, populism and now a return to industrial policy and great power confrontation. He connects deficits, demographics, migration, and housing with the lived reality of stagnant wages and rising prices. Along the way, he questions central bank mythology, challenges deficit obsession, and asks whether politics can adapt before events force a far harsher reset.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on LinkedIn.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Cold open and warning on a return to 19th century style imperialism00:23 - Niels and Alan introduce Mark Blyth and set the macro context02:24 - From Scottish childhood to monetarism and the politics of macro ideas08:33 - Capitalism as hardware and software and the recurring crashes of each regime15:32 - The slow death of neoliberalism and the rise of populist reactions18:57 - Deficits, austerity, bond vigilantes and why the house is on fire anyway23:49 - Affordability, grocery prices, housing and the disconnect in elite dashboards29:02 - Generational conflict, asset concentration and the missing left...

Top Traders Unplugged
SI382: The End of Globalization, the Rise of Trends ft. Richard Brennan

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 10, 2026 68:10 Transcription Available


The new year opens with a shift hiding in plain sight. As globalization recedes and the world fractures into spheres of influence, Rich argues this isn't just a political story - it's a structural shift that favors trend following. In this episode, he challenges the illusion of control baked into most trading systems: why backtests offer comfort, not readiness; why precision breeds fragility; and why the future isn't something to predict, but something being built in real time. This is a conversation about trading with humility, designing for persistence, and letting go of the need to know. The signal is now.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Opening and the start of 202603:21 - A fragmented global order and what it means for trend following08:55 - Why coordination fades and imbalances persist12:41 - Early market signals and unusual positioning14:34 - 2025 in review, concentration and recovery17:36 - Familiar pain and familiar payoffs in trend following23:00 - Timeframes, diversification, and ensemble thinking28:37 - Brakes and acceleration, trading the now40:58 - The future as unfinished, not hidden49:54 - Prediction versus participation53:53 - Optimization, comfort, and hidden fragility01:02:49 - Predetermined response and process control01:05:30 - Closing reflections and looking aheadCopyright © 2025

Top Traders Unplugged
GM93: The Calm Before a Systemic Reckoning ft. William White

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 7, 2026 65:12 Transcription Available


William White returns to assess a world edging closer to systemic stress. Drawing on decades advising central banks, he describes a macro regime defined not by temporary shocks, but by a deep reversal of the forces that once kept inflation low and debt manageable. From de-globalization and demographic decline to energy constraints and fragile supply chains, the conversation traces how rising costs collide with record public and private leverage. White warns that policy makers are trapped between inflationary pressures and debt sustainability, with no clean exit in sight. The discussion closes on AI, currency fragmentation, and the uncomfortable possibility that today's stability masks a far more dangerous future.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow William on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why unchecked booms become more dangerous over time01:37 - Setting the stage for a new global macro regime03:53 - From disinflation to persistent inflation pressure07:10 - Supply side forces reversing after decades of support12:07 - Debt accumulation and unintended policy consequences13:03 - Why higher rates did not trigger an immediate crisis18:53 - Debt dynamics and the problem of sustainability19:57 - Tipping points and the psychology of market breaks26:40 - What happens when...

The Long View
Cullen Roche: What Is Your Perfect Portfolio?

The Long View

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 6, 2026 59:08


Today on the podcast we welcome back Cullen Roche. He has a new book out called Your Perfect Portfolio: The Ultimate Guide to Using the World's Most Powerful Investment Strategies. Cullen is also the founder and chief investment officer of Discipline Funds, and he heads up Orcam Group, a registered investment advisory firm he established in 2012. Cullen started his career as an advisor at Merrill Lynch and worked at an event-driven hedge fund before starting his RIA firm. He received his bachelor's degree in finance from Georgetown University's McDonough School of Business. Cullen, welcome back to The Long View.BackgroundBioDiscipline FundsYour Perfect Portfolio: The Ultimate Guide to Using the World's Most Powerful Investment StrategiesPragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Money and FinanceArtificial Intelligence, Bubbles, Bonds, and Rate Cuts“Three Things—Weekend Reading,” by Cullen Roche, disciplinefunds.com, Oct. 11, 2025.“Three Things—Bubbles, Paradoxes & QE,” by Cullen Roche, disciplinefunds.com, Dec. 12, 2025.“Three Things—Gold, Cuts and Divorces,” by Cullen Roche, disciplinefunds.com, Sept. 19, 2025.“Three Things—Where Did the Integrity Go?” by Cullen Roche, disciplinefunds.com, Aug. 21, 2025.“Bonds: It's Still Time to Chill (For a Little Longer Though),” by Cullen Roche, disciplinefunds.com, May 22, 2025.OtherDiscipline Funds' Tariff Tracker“Cullen Roche: What Tariffs Mean for Your Portfolio,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, April 22, 2025.Bill BernsteinTaylor Larimore“The Case for a ‘Good Enough' Portfolio,” by Christine Benz, Morningstar.com, Oct. 27, 2025. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Top Traders Unplugged
SI381: Process Over Pain: Trend Following in an Unforgiving Market (Group Conversation Part 2)

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 3, 2026 63:39 Transcription Available


In part two of our year-end roundtable, the Systematic Investor team goes beyond performance to ask harder questions about the path forward. Are today's drawdowns a signal of structural change? - or just the cost of staying disciplined in a low-volatility regime? As allocators repackage old ideas under new acronyms and model drift tempts even seasoned managers, the conversation turns to what still holds. From AI and capital efficiency to the quiet value of doing less, this is about defending process when the payoff isn't obvious - and knowing what not to change when pressure mounts. We close off with our 2026 Outrages Predictions... don't miss them!-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on LinkedIn.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn.Follow Richard on Twitter.Follow Mark on

Top Traders Unplugged
IL44: From AI Hype to Transformative AGI ft. Aubrie Pagano

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 31, 2025 62:41 Transcription Available


In this Ideas Lab episode, Kevin Coldiron speaks with venture capitalist and former founder Aubrie Pagano about what stands between today's AI hype and a truly transformative AGI economy. Rather than treating AI as destiny, Aubrie maps the frictions that hold it back: hard power limits, fragile industrial data, and agents that still cannot coordinate with humans or each other. She explains why we may be a full capital cycle or two away from real AGI and why that delay is precisely where the best opportunities lie. The conversation then widens into the “Aquarius Economy,” a possible future in which human agency, not algorithms, becomes the scarcest and most valuable asset.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Aubrie on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why agent coordination is still clunky and unreliable00:38 - Intro to Top Traders Unplugged and performance risk framing01:34 - Kevin sets up the Ideas Lab and today's focus on AGI02:59 - Aubrie's background as founder, researcher and VC shaping her lens06:04 - Why she wrote about AGI and the Aquarius Economy07:21 - AGI as the last cycle built on labor scarcity10:41 - The blockers framework and why AGI may be a cycle or two away12:58 - Blocker...

Top Traders Unplugged
SI380: Dispersion Is the Story This Year (Group Conversation Part 1)

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 27, 2025 72:54 Transcription Available


Niels is joined by all 9 amazing co-hosts, to discuss a year that refused to behave. In part one of the annual "roundtable", Niels and the group map why 2025 produced such striking dispersion across trend followers. They revisit the Liberation Day shock and the uncomfortable truth it exposed: results often came down to unglamorous choices like market selection, time horizon, and how quickly risk is resized after clustered volatility and sharp reversals. The conversation then widens to a structural theme: the rapid growth of strategies investors hope will sit outside stocks and bonds, from managed futures and multi strats to structured products, gold, and crypto, plus the liquidity, reflexivity, and selection challenges that follow when everyone reaches for the same diversifier.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on LinkedIn.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn.Follow Richard on

Top Traders Unplugged
OI20: Why Commodities Refuse to Trend Forever ft. Doug King

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 24, 2025 47:48 Transcription Available


Moritz Siebert speaks with Doug King about what it really means to trade commodities through cycles, distortions, and stress. Drawing on decades at Cargill and more than twenty years running a commodities hedge fund, Doug explains why innovation keeps scarcity narratives in check, why commodities resist buy and hold logic, and how real edge comes from cash markets rather than futures screens. He reflects on defining trades in oil, nickel, and agriculture, the limits of volatility targeting, and the discipline required to survive violent squeezes. The result is a grounded account of conviction, risk control, and why commodities reward patience more than prediction.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Doug on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Opening remarks and introduction to Top Traders Unplugged01:24 - Introducing Doug King and his background04:49 - From Cargill to hedge funds and the pull of commodities07:05 - Why the fund is purely discretionary and fundamentals driven09:50 - Team size, selectivity, and waiting for the right trades10:45 - Why commodities are cyclical and innovation breaks scarcity13:46 - Electrification and where long term excitement may lie15:37 - Defining edge in commodities trading18:12 - Physical delivery, convergence, and real market signals20:23

Top Traders Unplugged
SI379: The Illusion of Safety in a Fully Invested Market ft. Cem Karsan

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 20, 2025 70:35 Transcription Available


Niels and Cem reflect on a year marked by concentration, confidence, and growing structural fragility beneath calm markets. They examine extreme positioning, record low cash levels, and the quiet dominance of reflexive flows over fundamentals. Cem challenges common readings of volatility, explains where real fear hides in options markets, and outlines why tail exposure becomes critical late in cycles. The discussion broadens into portfolio construction, questioning the legacy of 60/40 investing and the illusion of diversification built during falling-rate decades. Grounded in history, market structure, and political cycles, this conversation offers a disciplined framework for navigating regimes where leverage, policy, and inequality quietly redefine risk.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series00:49 - Geopolitical tensions beneath the surface of markets02:07 - Extreme bullish sentiment and record low cash levels04:12 - Margin use, positioning, and why this setup is fragile06:07 - Why the VIX fails as a true fear indicator11:48 - Buffett's concentration and risk management through quality16:27 - Leverage, Sharpe ratios, and misunderstood diversification21:02 - Trend following performance and late year positioning23:48 - Positioning, reflexivity, and market microstructure28:25 - Volatility traps and convexity before stress events31:06...

Top Traders Unplugged
GM92: Politics in an Age of Hard Borders and Rising Hegemons ft. Gary Gerstle

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 17, 2025 70:02 Transcription Available


In this conversation, the veneer of political continuity is stripped back to reveal a world drifting toward harder borders, sharper identities and a reshaping of power once thought unthinkable. Gary Gerstle traces the erosion of the neoliberal order and the rise of a political logic that places national strength above universal norms. He examines how affordability stress, authoritarian impulses and fragmented parties are redrawing economic life and democratic expectations. The discussion widens into a global map of competing hegemons and the uneasy choices facing Europe and the United States. What emerges is a portrait of a century unsettled, yet not without agency.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on LinkedIn.Follow Gary on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening remarks on a shifting world and national security visions00:44 - Introduction to Top Traders Unplugged and context for the discussion01:40 - Framing the global macro environment and the need for deeper perspectives02:24 - Introducing Gary Gerstle and his work on political and economic orders04:00 - Defining the end of the neoliberal era and what has replaced it07:02 - The tension between authoritarian forces and liberal democratic hopes08:17 - Democracy under strain and the implications of Trump's second term10:06 - Shock, discipline and the early strategic force of Trump...

Top Traders Unplugged
SI378: When Prices Stop Making Sense ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 13, 2025 62:35 Transcription Available


This episode examines markets through the lens of uncertainty rather than prediction. As the Federal Reserve delivers a rate cut amid dissent and conflicting signals, Alan and Mark explore what it means for systematic investors navigating noisy data, fragile liquidity and shifting regimes. The conversation moves from Fed credibility and term premia to bubbles, leverage and the limits of valuation in an environment shaped by narratives as much as fundamentals. Along the way, they return to a core question at the heart of systematic investing: when uncertainty rises and explanations multiply, should prices remain the final arbiter of risk, signal and portfolio design?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor series00:23 - Market context and recent CTA performance02:41 - Initial reactions to the Fed decision and rate cut03:12 - A messy Fed and the problem of dissenting signals06:48 - Inflation, growth projections and policy uncertainty08:31 - Signal versus noise in systematic trading models11:22 - Employment data revisions and confidence in fundamentals13:10 - Bond valuation, term premia and the question of safe assets16:30 - Fiscal dominance, inflation risk and portfolio fragility19:29 - Prices versus value and the limits of interpretation22:47 - Narratives, reflexivity and momentum in markets28:07...

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour
12-11-25 Bifurcated Fed Cuts Rates - What's Next

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 11, 2025 46:43


The Federal Reserve cut rates by a quarter point Wednesday, but the real story is the division behind the decision. For the first time since 2021, three Fed governors dissented--an uncommon break in policy unity that raises new questions about inflation progress, economic risk, and the path of monetary policy into 2026. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explain why the Fed cut now, what the dissent signals, and how a split vote may affect market volatility, yields, and expectations for future rate moves. We also look at how past dissent has aligned with turning points in policy cycles and what this could mean for portfolios as financial conditions continue to ease. Use the chapter markers below to jump to any topic. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - The Fed Giveth, Oracle Taketh Away 6:53 - Volatility on the Rise 11:25 - Adding Ultra for Mrs. Roberts 14:16 - Surprises from the Fed? 18:15 - Fed Statement Analysis (chart) 20:12 - Betting on Kevin Hassett 22:08 - QE or Not QE? 26:30 - Valuations are a Function of Sentiment 29:48 - When Will Markets Crash? 32:32 - The Break Between Value & Growth 35:32 - ETF Issueance & High Risk Offerings 38:52 - What Happens When Gold and Stocks Rise 41:12 - What is Your Goal for Your Portfolio? 42:52 - Coming Attractions Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bT1azosP1yk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Volatility After the Fed," is here: https://youtu.be/gnorFZc1qM8 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Bullish Case Or Bearish Backdrop" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bullish-case-or-bearish-backdrop/ -------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Live-chat Q&A Show" here: https://bit.ly/3KQlkIK -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MarketVolatility #NASDAQ #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FOMC #MarketOutlook #InvestingStrategy

The Real Investment Show Podcast
12-11-25 Bifurcated Fed Cuts Rates: What's Next?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 11, 2025 46:44


The Federal Reserve cut rates by a quarter point Wednesday, but the real story is the division behind the decision. For the first time since 2021, three Fed governors dissented--an uncommon break in policy unity that raises new questions about inflation progress, economic risk, and the path of monetary policy into 2026. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explain why the Fed cut now, what the dissent signals, and how a split vote may affect market volatility, yields, and expectations for future rate moves. We also look at how past dissent has aligned with turning points in policy cycles and what this could mean for portfolios as financial conditions continue to ease. Use the chapter markers below to jump to any topic. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - The Fed Giveth, Oracle Taketh Away 6:53 - Volatility on the Rise 11:25 - Adding Ultra for Mrs. Roberts 14:16 - Surprises from the Fed? 18:15 - Fed Statement Analysis (chart) 20:12 - Betting on Kevin Hassett 22:08 - QE or Not QE? 26:30 - Valuations are a Function of Sentiment 29:48 - When Will Markets Crash? 32:32 - The Break Between Value & Growth 35:32 - ETF Issueance & High Risk Offerings 38:52 - What Happens When Gold and Stocks Rise 41:12 - What is Your Goal for Your Portfolio? 42:52 - Coming Attractions Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bT1azosP1yk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Volatility After the Fed," is here: https://youtu.be/gnorFZc1qM8 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Bullish Case Or Bearish Backdrop" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bullish-case-or-bearish-backdrop/ -------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Live-chat Q&A Show" here: https://bit.ly/3KQlkIK -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MarketVolatility #NASDAQ #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FOMC #MarketOutlook #InvestingStrategy

Top Traders Unplugged
TTU151: What Comes After 60/40? Systematic Thinking, BlackRock Style ft. Jeff Rosenberg

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 10, 2025 73:38 Transcription Available


Niels and Alan sit down with BlackRock's Jeff Rosenberg to examine how the post Covid shift from too little to too much inflation is reshaping portfolios. Jeff explains why bond and equity correlations have changed, why fixed income is drifting back toward income rather than pure diversification, and how fiscal pressure and soft financial repression may influence rates. They explore what systematic really means at BlackRock, from trend ETFs and defensive alpha to market breadth and execution. The conversation ends with the rise of liquid alternatives, whole portfolio thinking and growing equity concentration risk.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Jeff on LinkedIn.Find out more about DUNN CapitalEpisode Timestamps:00:00 - Introduction, Jeff's role at BlackRock Systematic and setting the agenda04:09 - From too little to too much inflation and the end of divine coincidence09:32 - Wage dynamics, “prices are too high” and persistent, not resurgent, inflation14:48 - Bond equity correlation, the changing role of fixed income and income versus diversification19:55 - Fiscal dominance, debt loads and the risk of soft financial repression25:21 - What “systematic” means at BlackRock across beta, factors and pure alpha30:44 - Trend as a systematic return stream and why...

Crypto Talk Radio: Basic Cryptonomics
US Government Plays Favorites, Skips XRP and Solana For Leverage Trading

Crypto Talk Radio: Basic Cryptonomics

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 10, 2025 35:46


US Government Plays Favorites, Skips XRP and Solana For Leverage Trading #Crypto #Cryptocurrency #podcast #BasicCryptonomics #XRP #Solana #Bitcoin #Ethereum Website: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://CryptoTalk.FM Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠⁠@ThisIsCTR⁠⁠⁠⁠ Discord:⁠⁠⁠⁠ @CryptoTalkRadio⁠⁠⁠⁠ Chapters (00:00:01) - Crypto Talk Radio(00:01:36) - Bitcoin Prices Pump, Mortgage Rates(00:07:37) - Binance vs XRP: Who Should Be Suited?(00:11:29) - The US government has been sitting on privacy-based cryptocurrencies(00:14:28) - Bitcoin's Too Centrally Controlled(00:20:55) - Bitcoin Bubble: Diversity in Your Portfolio(00:25:14) - Block Dag on the Chaos Notice(00:30:09) - Something's WRONG With DaVinci Germany(00:30:48) - Consider Precious Metals

Top Traders Unplugged
SI377: What's New in SG Indices in 2026? + The Regime-Adaptive Portfolio ft. Alan Dunne

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 6, 2025 68:54 Transcription Available


Niels and Alan explore how a fragile macro regime reshapes systematic investing, from a politicised Fed succession to widening cracks in a debt-laden, equity-dependent economy. A shifting bond landscape, rising capital demands from AI and renewed tariff risks challenge the old 60/40 orthodoxy. Listener questions on US policy shocks and the Yen carry trade open a deeper look at when trend helps and when it hurts. The episode culminates in a world exclusive of SocGen's 2026 index changes and the first public reveal of Alan's new paper: The Regime-Adaptive Portfolio, for genuinely resilient, opportunity-aware global wealth compounding intelligently, prudently over the decade ahead.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Voiceover and introduction to the Systematic Investor Series00:23 - Niels and Alan open, what is on their radar this week01:27 - Fed succession as a political risk factor and betting markets03:33 - Crypto moves, Vanguard's platform shift and MicroStrategy index pressure05:53 - Listener questions: can constant US policy shocks break trend?06:33 - Trouble for trend or just another regime to endure and adapt to08:55 - Short-term CTAs, Liberation Day and when speed becomes a handicap11:11 - How CTAs are positioned for a yen carry unwind and JGB nuances12:16 - November trend update, five straight positive months and short-term pain13:35 - World exclusive: new SocGen CTA and...

Top Traders Unplugged
ALO32: AI Booms, Fiscal Strains and the New Macro Regime ft. Joe Little

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 3, 2025 65:16 Transcription Available


Alan Dunne speaks with HSBC Asset Management's Global Chief Strategist, Joe Little, about what happens when the old macro rules stop working. Joe traces the shift from a demand led, low inflation world to a supply constrained regime of sticky and spiky prices, where 2 percent becomes a floor rather than a target. He explains the “reverse bond conundrum,” rising term premia and the quiet return of fiscal dominance. The conversation explores AI as investment boom, not yet productivity cure, the maturing of emerging markets, the fate of the dollar and how to build truly multipolar portfolios.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Joe on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening clip, long bonds misbehaving and the “reverse bond yield conundrum”00:55 - Introduction and risk disclosure for Top Traders Unplugged listeners01:50 - Joe's path from economist to global chief strategist and house view author05:16 - From post crisis disinflation to a supply constrained, sticky inflation regime10:32 - Why 2 percent looks like a floor, tariffs, profits and delayed inflation effects13:34 - 2026 baseline: muddle through growth, positive policy impulse and inflation nuance16:42 - AI as capital expenditure boom, echoes of the 1990s and the missing productivity surge20:40 - China and Asia: regionalisation, industrial policy and an exit from...

Top Traders Unplugged
SI376: What They're Only Now Starting to See ft. Andrew Beer

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 29, 2025 66:10 Transcription Available


In this week's Systematic Investor episode, Niels and Andrew Beer explore how a broken 60/40 paradigm is forcing wealth managers into a new world of “other” diversifiers. Andrew reflects on the Goldman Sachs report about private wealth flows, the rise of liquid alts and why big houses are suddenly launching trend ETFs. The conversation dives into replication versus traditional CTAs, the true cost of complexity, and Simplify's new index-based product built on Andrew's strategy. Along the way they debate pods, Bitcoin, and Andrew's evolving metaphor of managed futures as a cloudy, but occasionally crystal-clear, macro crystal ball.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro and Thanksgiving reflections, gratitude and mood after the holiday01:14 - Goldman report: trillions from wealthy investors and a seismic shift away from 60/4003:38 - Why bonds stopped diversifying and the growth of the “other” bucket in portfolios05:44 - Liquid alts vs illiquid alts and the timing of big firms launching trend ETFs08:25 - Odd Lots, pods and Dalio's skepticism on multi-strats' future09:22 - Bitcoin's volatile run and rumors of a manipulated pullback10:59 - November performance: zigzags in trend indices and short-term traders' struggles12:55 - How DBMF positioned: concentration, short yen, euro pain and being contrarian post “Liberation Day”16:05 - Are we still “replication”? Alternative data beta, tracking error and what's really...

Top Traders Unplugged
IL43: The Land Trap: How Property Shapes Power ft. Mike Bird

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 26, 2025 60:14 Transcription Available


In today's episode we talk about the world's oldest, and still most important asset: land. Our guest is the Economist's Wall Street Editor Mike Bird. Mike is the author of a newly released book The Land Trap: A New History of the World's Oldest Asset. We discuss the properties that make land unique as an asset and why it serves as collateral for almost two-thirds of all bank loans, making it the backbone of the world's money supply. Mike explains what the “land trap” means and why China is caught in its grip like no other country. We also discuss the one country in the world that seems to have escaped the trap and whether their lessons can be applied elsewhere. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Mike on X and read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening and setup00:00:49 - Disclaimer and show introduction00:01:45 - The premise: land as humanity's oldest asset00:04:18 - Defining the “land trap” through Hong Kong's model00:09:01 - Three defining traits: scarcity, immovability, endurance00:18:17 - Why technology can't replace geography00:23:29 - Land as collateral and the rise of...

Top Traders Unplugged
SI375: CTAs After the Walls Come Down ft. Rob Carver

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 22, 2025 77:14 Transcription Available


Rob Carver returns for a conversation that quietly questions the foundations. Is trend following an edge - or just a reward for holding discomfort others can't? From the role of skew in shaping outcomes to the blind spots in most robustness frameworks, Rob and Niels takes you through the mechanics with uncommon clarity. Listener questions open up the deeper layers: when volatility targeting helps, when it hurts, and why Sharpe Ratios can mislead. They end with a shift that may matter more than it seems: CalPERS moving to a Total Portfolio Approach. Not just a new framework - potentially a new lane for CTAs.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro and welcome to the Systematic Investor Series00:23 - Catching up with Rob and a cold, sunny UK01:35 - Is trend following an edge or a risk premium?03:38 - Overcomplicating edges and the Cliff Asness perspective04:30 - Renaissance's bad month and how even legends struggle09:25 - Managed futures ETFs, performance narratives, and media framing11:22 - AI, Nvidia and what an “AI bubble” might mean for trends13:10 - Trend barometer, current positioning and where returns come from18:35 - George's question: robustness testing, overfitting and multiple testing25:45 - How often to re-fit models and when to leave parameters alone27:44 - Frederik's question: intraday versus end of day for medium term...

Top Traders Unplugged
UGO08: The Coming Hunger Games for Global Savings ft. David Dredge

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 19, 2025 64:05 Transcription Available


Recorded live from the Cboe RMC floor in Munich, Cem Karsan sits down with volatility veteran David Dredge for a deep exploration of what truly drives risk. From the crash of 1987 to today's era of correlation, Dredge reframes volatility not as fear, but freedom. Through his F1 “brakes” analogy, he reveals why protection enables performance, and how convexity builds resilience in an uncertain world. Together, they trace the arc from structured-product flows to demographics, fiscal repression, and the coming global “Hunger Games” for savings. A masterclass in compounding through uncertainty.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow David on X.Episode TimeStamps: 00:01:29 – Cem introduces David Dredge live from Munich.00:03:28 – Dredge recalls arriving in Asia before the 1987 crash.00:05:06 – The F1 brakes analogy—why protection enables speed.00:07:45 – The “preserve and enhance” portfolio that defied 65/35.00:10:57 – Rethinking 60/40 and the illusion of diversification.00:14:33 – Cem on $500 trillion of correlated assets.00:17:22 – Why covered calls lose to convexity over time.00:19:14 – Misreading 2022: correlation, not equities, was the risk.00:21:20 – When diversification fails, only convexity endures.00:27:13 – Value investing in volatility—buying what others suppress.00:37:48 – Euro...

Top Traders Unplugged
SI374: When the Data Goes Dark: Trend Following, Turbulence & Total Portfolios ft. Katy Kaminski

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 15, 2025 59:25 Transcription Available


What happens when the data goes dark, yet markets barely flinch? In this episode, Niels and Katy unpack the month of October defined by missing economic releases, relentless equity strength and three extraordinary days of Liberation Day turbulence. They explore why price often tells the truest story, how total portfolio thinking could rewrite the role of trend, and why short term strategies faltered while precious metals surged. The conversation then shifts to the coming wave of alternatives in private wealth and the silent risk inside target date funds, asking how managed futures can reshape retirement outcomes when timing paths go wrong.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction and catching up from Boston02:00 - Life without economic data and what markets really need04:20 - Price as the only truth and the limits of official data05:45 - CalPERS, total portfolio thinking and what it means for trend08:20 - AI, data centers and the inflation story hiding in electricity10:30 - Inflation regimes, unstable prices and why trend cares about change12:40 - Year to date trend review across equities, metals, FX and bonds15:10 - Why short term traders struggled in a headline driven year20:00 - Picking “the best strategy” and why robustness matters more than Sharpe24:10 - Parameters, speed of response and treating markets differently26:20

Top Traders Unplugged
GM91: Inside China's Growth Dilemma ft. George Magnus

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 12, 2025 60:32 Transcription Available


China's ascent tells two stories. One of power, precision, and industrial brilliance - the other of imbalance, aging, and constraint. In this episode, Alan Dunne and George Magnus trace the hidden geometry of that divide. They explore how a nation that builds for the future struggles to sustain its present: an economy split between advanced manufacturing and fading momentum, between the Party's control and the market's gravity. From local debt and demographic drag to rare-earth diplomacy and the politics of currency, Magnus sketches China not as a riddle to be solved, but as a system nearing the limits of its own design.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on LinkedIn.Follow George on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Opening and disclaimer02:23 – George Magnus on career path and China focus06:56 – Data, distortions, and how to analyze China credibly11:37 – Two-track reality: advanced industry vs. a strained macro base16:56 – Why consumption rebalancing keeps failing22:29 – Stock-market boosts vs. household wealth effects25:45 – China's “QE by other means”: credit, banks, LGFVs27:40 – Who's levered? Local governments and off–balance sheet debt29:51 – Japan echoes and key differences33:23 – Trade frictions, rare-earth leverage, and U.S.–China...

Top Traders Unplugged
SI373: Why Trend Thrives When Inflation Returns ft. Yoav Git

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 8, 2025 62:57 Transcription Available


What if markets move not by logic, but by pressure? In this conversation, Alan Dunne and Yoav Git trace the invisible currents behind price formation, namely how a single dollar of inflow can lift valuations fivefold, and why that distortion challenges everything the efficient market promised. From the slow mechanics of supply and demand to the moral hazards of policy and liquidity, the discussion follows money as it reshapes narrative. They revisit research that foresaw inflation's return, and question why QIS indices so often fade in practice. Beneath it all lies a quiet question: what truly drives the modern market?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00:23 – Opening and agenda for the discussion00:01:05 – Math education in the UK and XTX's push to fund young talent00:03:39 – Market performance recap for early November00:04:49 – Reflections on volatility and fixed income trading conditions00:05:13 – Introduction to the “Inelastic Markets Hypothesis”00:05:53 – Supply, demand, and elasticity explained in market terms00:10:30 – Instrumental variables and how economists measure elasticity00:14:51 – The debate: if markets clear, how can flows move prices?00:15:44 – Why equities are more inelastic than bonds00:21:04 – Questioning the 5x effect and how...

Top Traders Unplugged
GM90: The Quiet Repricing of Reality ft. Adam Rozencwajg & Cem Karsan

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 5, 2025 71:17 Transcription Available


Power shifts quietly, until it doesn't. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan are joined by Adam Rozencwajg to trace the slow fracture of a system built on leverage, politics, and belief. From the echo of LBJ's confrontation with the Fed to today's invisible coercions, they explore how monetary regimes die, not in crisis, but in exhaustion. Inflation returns as behavior, debt becomes geometry, and commodities reclaim their voice. Through the lenses of shale decline, Venezuela's unrealized oil, and the steady ascent of gold, this conversation reveals a cycle completing itself. The story isn't new. Only the setting has changed.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Adam on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction03:12 - The rise of carry trades and the rhythm of global financial cycles08:44 - Political pressure, Fed history, and lessons from past monetary regimes13:47 - The end of carry, the dawn of stagflation, and the return of real assets20:47 - Inflation's return, debt dynamics, and the coming shift in the monetary system27:33 - Gold, negative real rates, and the psychology of inflation34:57 - The debt spiral, liquidity traps, and the quiet monetization of risk41:40 - Energy policy, shale decline, and the politics of “Drill Baby Drill”49:10 - Venezuela's oil chessboard and the geopolitical struggle...

Top Traders Unplugged
OI19 BONUS: Living With Ed Seykota ft. David Druz

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 2, 2025 42:34 Transcription Available


Dave Druz spent six months living with Ed Seykota - not shadowing a trading system, but watching a way of being. In this bonus episode, he shares what that experience revealed: a style built on instinct, pattern, and total psychological clarity. No screens. No signals. Just presence. Dave tried to trade that way himself - made 300%, unraveled, and walked away. What emerges is less a portrait of Seykota than a meditation on the limits of imitation, the pressure of performance, and the discipline it takes to trade like yourself - especially after witnessing someone who doesn't.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:02:21 - Introduction to part 202:57 - Anecdotes from Druz' time working with Ed Seykota06:46 - The best trader the world has ever seen17:13 - The optimal bet size21:24 - What Druz learned from working with Seykota25:45 - Key lessons for managing drawdowns27:57 - How does one gets to become an apprentice of Ed Seykota33:00 - Living with Ed Seykota35:19 - Seykota's 10.000 dollar cookie maniaCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following...

Top Traders Unplugged
SI372: QIS Unboxed: Rules, Wrappers, and Reality ft. Nick Baltas

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 1, 2025 58:44 Transcription Available


As equity markets grind higher and trend strategies navigate sharp reversals, Moritz Siebert welcomes Nick Baltas of Goldman Sachs for a conversation that moves beyond performance to examine structure. Together they unpack the machinery of the $1.3 trillion QIS industry - from index design and client behavior to the subtle forces shaping capacity and crowding. They discuss how trading speed has become a key axis of dispersion, why volatility remains the hidden cost in systematic portfolios, and what resilience in markets might really be masking. This is not just about strategy. It's about how products scale, and how ideas hold.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Follow Moritz on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps:00:23 - Moritz opens the show and introduces Nick01:16 - Nick's quick life update and setting the tone02:45 - Market resilience vs. fragility in 202504:18 - Performance rundown: CTAs, trend, equities, bonds06:10 - October reversals: metals and livestock giveback07:32 - What's working: equities, gold, copper; sugar shorts08:58 - Trend speed, April V-shape, and dispersion10:40 - Position exits, re-entries, and neutral zones11:55 - How QIS differs and why it's opaque from the outside14:40 - How big is QIS? Asset class split and caveats18:05 - Who uses QIS: from asset owners to hedge

Top Traders Unplugged
OI19: The Trader Who Never Spoke...Until Now ft. David Druz

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 29, 2025 96:43 Transcription Available


Dave Druz has never told his story... not like this, not anywhere. For over 40 years, he traded quietly, systematically, and on his own terms. No marketing, no headlines, no need to explain. Until now. In this unique conversation with Moritz Seibert, Dave - Ed Seykota's first apprentice - shares how he built his approach, why he never identified as a trend follower, and what matters when your edge comes from standing opposite commercial hedgers. He explains why portfolio construction outranks entries, why volatility is the price of real risk, and why staying small was a choice, not a limitation. From medicine to markets, from apprenticeship to independence, this isn't just how he traded - it's why he stayed silent, and why he's speaking now.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Read more about David.Episode TimeStamps:02:11 - Introduction to Dave Druz13:50 - Druz' time in the Commodities Corporation19:14 - How did Druz discover trend following?23:57 - The core philosophy behind Druz' trend following strategy28:08 - Who wins and loses in the markets?37:37 - Determining hedging flows in commodity markets41:03 - Managing money in trend following43:40 - How does Druz size a position and get out of it?45:16 - Coping with a high level of volatility50:23 - Mitigate drawdown or take the...

Top Traders Unplugged
SI371: Trends Don't Form Randomly. They Form Reflexively ft. Richard Brennan

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 25, 2025 77:28 Transcription Available


Richard Brennan returns this week to explore how markets truly move - not through randomness or rationality, but through impact, feedback, and memory. What begins with a single trade builds into structure, not pattern; alignment, not noise. Drawing from neuroscience and fractal geometry, Rich challenges the idea that markets can be understood without understanding interaction. The episode builds toward a pointed exchange on position sizing - closed equity versus dynamic exposure - not as a technical footnote, but as a reflection of first principles. In a system where the path shapes the outcome, how you define risk... often reveals how you think the world works.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00:00 – Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series00:00:23 – Niels' intro, show setup, and warm welcome to Rich00:00:57 – Heatwave down under: context and small talk00:02:10 – Rich: divided brain, AI vs embodiment, and markets needing rules00:07:50 – AI's edge shrinks prediction windows; why that helps trend following00:10:35 – Gold's violent selloff; electricity vs oil as the new macro lens00:14:51 – “Trend heaven”: why the backdrop now looks robust00:18:12 – Post-GFC compression vs today's decoupling and trends00:22:43 – Impact and reflexivity: trades reshape the next trade00:28:23 – Non-ergodic markets: path dependence beats Gaussian assumptions00:35:48 – Volatility ≠...

Top Traders Unplugged
UGO07: The Illusion of Safety: How Markets Became the Economy ft. Keith DeCarlucci, Patrick Kazley & Hari Krishnan

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 22, 2025 67:19 Transcription Available


Recorded amid the noise and pulse of the RMC conference in Munich, this episode of U Got Options follows a market learning to see itself anew. Cem Karsan speaks with Keith DeCarlucci on the return of macro discipline through EM carry and the quiet yield of volatility. Patrick Kazley traces the fault lines of diversification, where beta, convexity, and policy now intersect. And Hari Krishnan confronts the uneasy coexistence of human intuition and machine logic in risk. Together, they chart the tension between structure and surprise - a world still trading on old instincts, but guided by new intelligence.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening and introductions01:29 - Overview of guests and themes: EM, volatility, and AI03:10 - Keith DeCarlucci on EM FX, commodities, and volatility trades14:13 - Relative value in equity vol and tail-hedging strategies21:20 - Patrick Casley on portfolio construction and convexity32:24 - Reassessing 60/40, nominal illusion, and macro correlations39:44 - The new regime: long assets vs limited diversifiers44:39 - Hari Krishnan on AI, options, and the future of volatility56:06 - Upside skew, real assets, and structural market shifts01:05:21 - Closing remarks and disclaimersCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...

Top Traders Unplugged
SI370: Sharpe Ratios, Tail Risks, and the Cost of Comfort ft. Nigol Koulajian & Alan Dunne

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 18, 2025 61:45 Transcription Available


Nigol Koulajian, founder of AlphaQuest rejoins Niels and Alan for a conversation about markets shaped less by fundamentals than by perception. As political influence deepens and volatility is managed rather than discovered, traditional risk signals lose meaning. Sharpe ratios climb not through edge, but through exposure to hidden fragilities. Diversification is narrowing. And while systematic strategies continue to hold their line, the forces around them are shifting - slowly, structurally, and with consequences. This episode is about recognizing imbalance in real time, resisting the comfort of consensus, and asking whether today's apparent stability is masking tomorrow's risk.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:32 - Introduction to our special guest01:57 - How did the economy end up the way it is today?09:15 - Is it just a cycle?19:46 - What is the end game?23:47 - A short masterclass on skew and convexity31:45 - How trend following has changed over time39:18 - Should you optimize your portfolio from a short or long term perspective?45:19 - How Nigol navigates the strong headwinds for CTAs53:04 - Turning the risk of pod shops into opportunities56:06 - When will we revert to a more "normal" environment?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...

Top Traders Unplugged
GM89: When Credibility Becomes the Risk Premium ft. Maurice Obstfeld

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 15, 2025 61:15 Transcription Available


Maurice Obstfeld joins Alan Dunne for a clear-eyed look at how the foundations of the global monetary system are shifting - and why much of the world is quietly preparing for a future without a stable dollar anchor. Drawing on decades in policy and research, Obstfeld explains how tariffs, fiscal dominance, and political interference are eroding the norms that once held the system together. They discuss the risk of fragmentation, the creeping politicization of the Fed, and why trust - not theory - is the real currency at stake. This is a conversation about power, credibility, and what happens when both start to slip.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Read more about Maurice here.Episode TimeStamps: 02:18 - Introduction to Maurice Obstfeld05:26 - The role and evolution of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)08:14 - What has been the rationale for tariffs, and how has it impacted the economy?11:13 - Has the viewpoint on tariffs shifted?18:42 - How the changing monetary policy could undermine the dollar27:19 - Does an alternative to the dollar even exist?29:50 - What are the implications of moving away from the dollar?34:20 - A possible financial repression incoming?36:25 - The impact of an unusual approach to policy making domestically39:16 - A fork in the road for the...

Top Traders Unplugged
SI369: Liquidity, Leverage, and the End of Safety ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 11, 2025 76:08 Transcription Available


Gold is ripping, but it's not about inflation. It's about trust - or the slow erosion of it. Mark Rzepczynski returns to map out the shifting terrain as central banks quietly step away from sovereign debt and build reserves in metal, not paper. Niels presses on what this says about safe assets, liquidity, and the narratives we've long taken for granted. They unpack the rise of short-term options, the distortive power of retail flow, and the fragility buried inside modern plumbing. And as trend followers chase edge in crowded markets, Mark offers a glimpse into what comes next: networks, feedback loops, and systems that learn - until they break.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:01:34 - What has been on our radar recently?05:43 - Is this time different for gold?14:13 - Just a gold story?16:38 - Should we redefine the definition of safe assets?19:45 - The Fed has to change26:08 - An overbearing uncertainty30:25 - Our thoughts on meme stocks35:30 - Not every innovations are good39:02 - How narratives impact how products are sold46:21 - Industry performance update49:39 - Alternative vs traditional assets01:00:43 - Every CTA is a short term trader01:05:59 - The power of seeing the connection between markets01:14:32 - What is up for next week?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...

Top Traders Unplugged
GM88: Cycles of Promise and Pain: Argentina's Unfinished Lesson ft. Nicolas Dujovne

Top Traders Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 8, 2025 58:46 Transcription Available


Argentina's history is one of recurring promises and painful resets. Nicolas Dujovne has lived that cycle from the inside, serving as Finance Minister during a rare attempt at fiscal repair before markets and politics turned against it. Now, as CIO of Tenac Asset Management, he reflects with Alan Dunne on why economic reform so often falters, how short-term pain fuels long-term instability, and what it would take to finally break the trap. Beyond Argentina, the discussion widens to emerging markets at large - their hard-won stability, the new risks born of geopolitics and demographics, and the shifting fault lines of globalization.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Read more about Nicolas.Episode TimeStamps: 02:24 - Introduction to Nicolas Dujovne05:32 - Key reflections from Dujovne's former role as ministry of Treasury in Argentina11:43 - How dollarization could change the overall dynamic of the economy14:52 - How Dujovne's role as minister has shaped his investment process16:56 - The state and outlook of emerging markets21:13 - The relationship between central banks and emerging markets23:33 - How the current globalization impact the investing landscape27:43 - Evaluating the U.S from the lens of an emerging market investor33:25 - How markets respond to fiscal...