Podcasts about noahpinion

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureThe WSJ is predicting higher electricity costs in 2026. Trump is bringing down the cost of energy and implementing new energy sources. Electricity increased because of the the green new scam. Trump is now going after the Federal Reserve for gross incompetence, this will lead to exposing the Fed’s criminal activity. The [DS] infiltrated Congress going all the way back to 1929, the continued to present day. They made it so they have the ability to control those people they install. There are no term limits, this allows these people to stay in their positions for a very longtime. Trump is now setting the stage to return the power back to the people. This is much bigger than a few arrests. Economy Average Electricity Rates by State, What Do You Pay?  Hawaii and California have the highest rates. Idaho the lowest. Average Residential Electricity Rates by State   Electricity Cost 10 Lowest States Be Prepared to Keep Paying More for Electricity The Wall Street Journal says Be Prepared to Keep Paying More for Electricity Source:  mishtalk.com  (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); https://twitter.com/ElectionWiz/status/2005964583727780156?s=20 https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/2005751158149615698?s=20  Trump claims the project has overrun by $4 billion (he mentions $4.1 billion total for “a few small buildings”), calling it the “highest price in the history of construction.” He contrasts this with his own White House ballroom project, which he says is under budget and ahead of schedule despite its cost doubling to $400 million from an earlier $200 million estimate.  Yes, discovery could occur—if the case advances past initial hurdles. This would allow Trump’s side to subpoena Fed documents, emails, financial records, and testimony related to the renovations. This could effectively let them “look into” specific aspects of what the Fed has been doing, such as budgeting, contracting, and project management for the HQ overhaul. Discovery rules under the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure are broad, potentially uncovering internal Fed communications or decisions tied to the alleged incompetence.    Trump could request a GAO investigation into the HQ project overruns. Political/Rights Longtime Democrat George Clooney and His Family Ditch America, Move to France, and Secure French Citizenship Hollywood elitist and longtime Democrat activist George Clooney has officially joined the growing list of wealthy, left-wing celebrities who preach “American values” while quietly distancing themselves from the United States. Clooney, along with his wife, Amal Alamuddin Clooney, and their two children, has reportedly obtained French citizenship through a naturalization decree. The couple's 8-year-old twins, Ella and Alexander, were included in the process.  Clooney went on to explain that he feared raising his children in Los Angeles. “I was worried about raising our kids in L. A., in the culture of Hollywood. I felt like they were never going to get a fair shake at life. France—they kind of don't give a shit about fame. I don't want them to be walking around worried about paparazzi. I don't want them being compared to somebody else's famous kids.” Source: thegatewaypundit.com https://twitter.com/RichardGrenell/status/2005844962769064196?s=20 beliefs. Boycotting the Arts to show you support the Arts is a form of derangement syndrome. The arts are for everyone and the left is mad about it. https://twitter.com/Oilfield_Rando/status/2005834821503705445?s=20 DOGE Geopolitical New Report Appears to Confirm Covenant School Shooter Audrey Hale Bought Guns With Student Loan Money The FBI has just released more pages from the manifesto of Covenant School shooter Audrey Hale, which suggest that she bought the guns used in the 2023 shooting with money she had from a Pell Grant. Hale's parents suggested this two years ago and this report appears to confirm that. The Tennessee Star reports: Latest FBI Release of Covenant School Manifesto Files Appears to Confirm Trans-Identified Killer Bought Guns with Pell Grant Money The FBI on Monday released another 230 manifesto pages written by Audrey Elizabeth Hale, the biological female who identified as a transgender man on March 27, 2023, when the 28-year-old killed six at the Covenant School in Nashville, the Christian elementary school she once attended. This latest journal appears to have been written sometime in late 2021, and includes lengthy sections about the weapons the killer planned to use to commit a mass shooting at a school sometime that year. Following multiple pages full of weapons to purchase, the journal includes a page labeled “Account Savings Record,” which appears to reference the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA). It also records multiple payments received from Nossi during the period when Hale attended the Nossi College of Art and Design in Nashville. “FASFA [sic] grant checks started at $2,050.86,” wrote Hale at the top of the entry. The page then lists a series of apparent ledger entries, starting with, “$2,656.87 (x3 checks from Nossi).” The next ledger entry states, “+$530.00 (x1 check Nossi) ($3,186.87).” This reference to Hale's federal student aid, located in the writings next to her entries about guns she considered buying, appears to corroborate the claims made by her parents to Metro Nashville Police Department (MNPD) detectives in 2023, when they told law enforcement their child purchased the firearms using federal Pell Grant money.  Source: thegatewaypundit.com https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/2005425950306263265?s=20 War/Peace https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/2005747398614847766?s=20 https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/2005757621278761205?s=20 Trump clarifies that if Hamas do not disarm like they promised, that any number of the 59 countries who signed onto the peace deal, will completely wipe out Hamas.  Protests Erupt Across Iran As Angry People Flood Streets  The mullahs have ruled in Iran since 1979. So you had millions that went to helping to prop up the terrorist state. But the Iranians are a persistent people, it would appear, especially when you hurt them in their wallets and make it challenging to survive. We’re at another one of those moments in history where hope has sparked again in the country, and people are in the streets, calling for change. Nationwide strikes and protests by merchants continued across Iran, with shops shuttered in major commercial hubs including Tehran's Grand Bazaar, Lalehzar Street, Naser Khosrow and Istanbul Square. Demonstrators chanted anti-government slogans calling for the downfall of the ruling clerics and demanding the leadership step aside. Video circulating online showed protesters inside a major shopping complex in Tehran's Grand Bazaar chanting, “Have no fear, we are all together,” while hurling insults at security forces and calling them shameless. Source: redstate.com Crushed by inflation, soaring living costs, and a future stolen by the regime, Iranians are back in the streets to protest. In a chilling echo of Tiananmen's Tank Man, one man defiantly sits down before the riot police. Desperation has met courage. Funds have been cutoff to the Mullahs/DS. They will lose control in the end and the people will rise up and take back their country. Cyber attacks ‘tipping point' warning issued after Harrods and M&S targeted Cyber attacks surged into prominence in 2025, inflicting significant financial damage on major British businesses and exposing widespread vulnerabilities across the economy. High-profile targets included automotive giant Jaguar Land Rover, retail stalwart Marks & Spencer, and luxury department store Harrods, underscoring how firms of all sizes are susceptible to sophisticated digital threats. Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, articulated his belief that cyber attacks represent one of the most substantial threats to UK financial stability, stressing the “critically important” need for collaborative defence. He stated: “Cyber attacks are far from new, but 2025 has shown just how deeply cyber risk is intertwined with economic stability and business continuity.” Source:  uk.news.yahoo.com  President Trump Responds to the 91-Drone Attack on Putin's Residence in Novgorod region During an impromptu press availability beside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Trump responded to a question about a drone attack against the personal residence of Russian President Vladimir Putin. President Trump noted that he was informed of the attack by President Putin during an early Monday phone call between the two leaders. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has denied the accusation that Ukraine carried out this particular attack.  The attack took place while Zelenskyy was in Florida meeting with President Trump. U.S. media have said the attack on Putin may be a lie; however, with physical evidence from the defense operation, it is less likely Russia just made up the attack.  At this moment in the conflict, Putin doesn't need domestic propaganda. CONTEXT: British intelligence previously confirmed their participation in the successful Ukraine drone attack against long-range Russian bombers.  That operation, highly controversial at the time, was previously confirmed by President Trump saying the U.S. was not informed in advance. The “coalition of the willing” has also expanded.  Outside the Ukraine regime, the current group making up the “coalition of the willing” includes: the U.K, France, Germany, Canada and Australia.  It is worth noting the additions are all part of the British commonwealth (U.K, Canada, Australia).   I suspect the British did it Source: theconservativetreehouse.com https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2005810672672624746?s=20   and utilities have materially underperformed the broader market over the last few years. This has been fueled by the outsized gains in the US technology sector. A similar pattern occurred during the 1990s, while the opposite took place during the 2008 Financial Crisis, when global defensive stocks outperformed. Defensive sectors are lagging. Medical/False Flags [DS] Agenda Soros family reportedly donated more than $71,000 to Letitia James campaigns Leftist billionaire George Soros and members of his family have donated more than $71,000 to political campaigns supporting New York Democratic Attorney General Letitia James since 2019, according to a report published Sunday by the New York Post. The report, citing campaign finance records, said the total includes $31,000 contributed toward James' 2026 reelection bid. Soros personally donated $18,000 in July 2024, while his daughter-in-law, Jennifer Soros, contributed $13,000 in May. With earlier donations included, Soros and his family have provided James with roughly $40,000 more since 2019, the Post reported. The figure does not include the indirect support James has received through left-leaning organizations backed by Soros. The report said Soros' Open Society Foundations have given more than $865,000 to the New York branch of the Working Families Party since 2018. Source:  rsbnetwork.com  https://twitter.com/SteveRob/status/2005683753432351171?s=20 https://twitter.com/mazemoore/status/2005361462580011272?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2005361462580011272%7Ctwgr%5E084f3c4b7bd7fa1059f91dab99d5e9dce1ab3cec%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fredstate.com%2Fnick-arama%2F2025%2F12%2F29%2Fthis-didnt-age-well-what-tim-walz-said-about-child-care-providers-during-2024-debate-n2197568 in Minnesota.” Yes Tim, you sure did make it easy for people to open childcare businesses. They don’t even need to provide childcare to get paid. https://twitter.com/amuse/status/2005702559239946273?s=20  admitted to the scheme and was sentenced to 10 years in prison for his role in the underlying fraud, with nearly $48 million ordered in restitution. Separate sentencing remains pending for the bribery conviction. https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/2005794263091798284?s=20   in there until today. That parking lot is empty all the time, and I was under the impression that place is permanently closed,” a local said. About 20 kids were seen “streaming in and out” of the center, according to the Post. “You do realize there's supposed to be 99 children here in this building, and there's no one here?” Shirley said in his viral video. The owner’s son, Ali Ibrahim, claims Shirley came before they opened and is blaming their graphic designer for messing up the sign. “What I understand is [the owners] dealt with a graphic designer. He did it incorrectly. I guess they didn't think it was a big issue,” Ibrahim said https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/2005812805786607882?s=20   children for the cameras. https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/2005766571487289395?s=20   citizens.” – MN AG Keith Ellison https://twitter.com/amuse/status/2005871452562555304?s=20  shootings the morning of Saturday June 13th at approximately 2:30am and 3:30am, in around [unclear] that I will probably be dead by the time you read this letter. I wanted to share some info with you that you might find interesting. I was trained by U.S. Military people off the books starting in college. I have been on projects since that time in Eastern Europe, North America, the Middle East, and Africa. All in the line of duty what I thought was right and in the best interest of the United States. Recently I was approached about a project that Tim Walz wanted done, and Keith [unclear] was also aware of the project. Tim wanted me to kill Amy Klobuchar and Tina [unclear]. Tim wants to be a senator and he doesn't trust [unclear] to retire as planned and this is meant to stay in the last mile with Amy & [unclear] gone. Tim would get one of the open senate seats, and [unclear] was to be VP, and Keith Ellison would be rewarded with a lucrative governing position. I told Tim I wanted nothing to do with it and that I didn't call off that plan I would go public. He said he would call it off himself if I didn't play ball. Then he set up a meeting with me and [unclear] and [unclear] to take care of me when I refused. They had some people waiting to kill me. I was able to get away by God's mercy. So I went back a short time later and shot back at [unclear]. You should notice how I didn't fire me rounds at any police officers and by God I have plenty of opportunity. Ask for the report on how many weapons and ammunition I had with me. Cops were pulling up right next to me in unmarked vehicles and I had an AK pistol across my lap. And I could have left a pile of cops dead but I did not. Short burst towards law enforcement. You can ask them. Because I snapped the police and chose not to see them hurt. But it may end up my wife and kids next time. I won't give them a pass. If you think I'm making this up just get on the phone and tell Tim you have a few questions for him. Then ask Tim Walz if he knows me and see what he says? If he says he doesn't know me, or never met me, look in the files and you will see that Tim personally approved me to be on his Governor's workforce. Bridges are the business representatives. He is probably trying to destroy that note but it is public record. Then ask Tim Walz why they kept the shots silent from the media when they first happened. Not a word in the press and I. Why? They needed to get their stories figured out. So everyone was on the same page about what happened. Tim is probably crapping bricks right now because I'm still at large and he knows what I can disclose and that I know about all the buried skeletons are. So I will be shot on sight you can bet on that. If you want me to turn myself in it need to be directly to you and then I need to be held at a military prison or in the Middle East, or at least on a ship. These guys have military backgrounds and can get to anybody. I am willing to spill all the beans. I just want my family safe. They had nothing to do with this and are totally innocent. This was a lone person https://twitter.com/RapidResponse47/status/2005811252409344411?s=20 Tim Walz is trying to bury the evidence of Somalian money laundering. His government website showing all the daycare licenses is having a mysterious “outage”. They are freaking out. https://twitter.com/feelsdesperate/status/2005736682100777121?s=20 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/2005699538808697062?s=20 Trump fires 17 government watchdogs at various federal agencies President Donald Trump fired 17 independent watchdogs at various federal agencies late Friday, a Trump administration official confirmed to Fox News, as he continues to reshape the government at a blistering pace. Trump dismissed inspectors general at agencies within the Defense Department, State Department, Energy Department, Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Department of Veterans Affairs and more, notifying them by email from the White House Presidential Personnel Office, the Washington Post first reported. “It's a widespread massacre,” one of the terminated inspectors general told the Post. “Whoever Trump puts in now will be viewed as loyalists, and that undermines the entire system.” Source: foxnews.com Trump has been in office for 11 months. The Trump US Attorney has been in control of the Minneapolis Office less than that. These are programs the Biden DOJ did not investigate — they investigated “Feeding our Future” only. So the investigations of 13 other federally funded welfare programs started from scratch.   https://twitter.com/AGPamBondi/status/2005764911427731459?s=20 THREAD https://twitter.com/Geiger_Capital/status/2005688449026908544?s=20 https://twitter.com/politico/status/2005765912167911931?s=20 https://twitter.com/StephenM/status/2005851479425310785?s=20  https://twitter.com/C_3C_3/status/2005864187575128397?s=20 President Trump's Plan https://twitter.com/WarClandestine/status/2005816218226233847?s=20 The National Guard is building a “quick reaction force” (QRF) of some 23,500 troops trained in crowd control and civil disturbance that can be ready to deploy to U.S. cities by early next year, according to a leaked memo reported by multiple outlets Wednesday.  The Oct. 8 memo, signed by National Guard Bureau Director of Operations Maj. Gen. Ronald Burkett, orders the Guard from nearly every U.S. state, Puerto Rico and Guam to train 500 service members. States with smaller populations such as Delaware will have 250 troops in its force, while Alaska will have 350 and Guam will have 100, Task & Purpose reported. Attorney General Pam Bondi Directs DOJ to Investigate Obama-Biden Era ‘Lawfare' as Ongoing Criminal Conspiracy Attorney General Pam Bondi has confirmed that the Department of Justice is actively probing what she describes as a decade-long pattern of government weaponization and “lawfare” under the Obama and Biden administrations. Bondi has directed U.S. Attorneys and federal agents to treat these actions as an “ongoing criminal conspiracy,” potentially allowing prosecutors to bypass statutes of limitations and hold high-ranking officials accountable for alleged election interference and civil rights violations. Source: thegatewaypundit.com  child-like illogic. And if you want to jump in and comment on whatever your particular axe to grind is and how disappointed you are that axe did not get ground in 11 months, please refer to the preposterous, child-like illogic mentioned above. https://twitter.com/TonySeruga/status/2005766903579701465?s=20 Look at the structure itself. 435 representatives for more than 300 million citizens. One voice per 700,000 people. The founders envisioned one per 30,000. That ratio was frozen in 1929, locked by the Permanent Apportionment Act, ensuring the number would remain manageable. Manageable for whom? One hundred senators. 535 total legislators controlling the direction of the largest economy in human history. You do not need to purchase a nation. You purchase 535 people. Or fewer. Buy the committee chairs. Fewer still. Buy the leadership. A few dozen individuals, properly leveraged through money or blackmail (it's actually both), steer everything. The bottleneck is artificial. Engineered for efficient capture. The Federal Reserve arrived in 1913, transferring monetary sovereignty from the people to a private banking cartel. That same year, the 17th Amendment removed state legislatures from Senate appointments, severing the balance between federal and state power. The intelligence apparatus emerged after World War II as a parallel government operating beyond electoral accountability. The administrative state metastasized into an unelected fourth branch writing rules with the force of law. Layer upon layer. Each generation inherits chains from contracts they never signed, bound by compromises made long before their birth. Yes, the Founding Fathers intended for the House of Representatives to expand as the population grew. The U.S. Constitution’s Article I, Section 2 established an initial apportionment ratio of no more than one representative per 30,000 inhabitants (with each state guaranteed at least one), implying that the total number would increase based on census results every ten years. the framers expected regular adjustments to maintain proportional representation as the nation expanded.  James Madison, in Federalist No. 58, directly addressed concerns that the House might not grow, arguing that the Constitution’s mechanisms—such as decennial reapportionments—would “augment the number of representatives” over time, and that political incentives (e.g., larger states pushing for increases) would ensure it happened.  This intent is further supported by the proposed (but unratified) Congressional Apportionment Amendment from the original Bill of Rights, which aimed to set a formula preventing the House from becoming too small relative to the population.  However, the House was permanently capped at 435 members by the Apportionment Act of 1929, diverging from this original vision. https://twitter.com/CynicalPublius/status/2005740095979069669?s=20   attempt instead chase smaller game, run interference, attack each other, send you down rabbit holes, and offer limited hangouts that lead nowhere. The silence is bipartisan. The silence is the tell. If your enemy acts and your ally does nothing despite holding every lever of power, you do not have two sides. WAIT… THERE'S MORE… https://twitter.com/WarClandestine/status/2005729994782466232?s=20   our walls, with Antifa and radical Islamic terrorist groups still at large, without Trump's people in position, without the public being informed of the treasonous conspiracy, without the wars around the globe being settled, without rogue Deep State elements like Iran's nuclear capabilities being shut down, all while the public are extremely emotionally charged after the election cycle and have been repeatedly brainwashed to believe that Trump is Hitler about to unleash a military dictatorship… There's levels to this shit. Many variables must be accounted for and many pieces must be in place before we can do something of this magnitude. But if you've been paying attention, you'd see that much of these things have already been taken care of over Trump's first year. I'm more optimistic than I've ever been, and frankly I don't understand how people don't see what Trump is doing. The price to pay for striking early, could result in mass civilian casualties, the entire operation will be ruined, the Republic will fall to the Deep State, and all of us will be tax/labor slaves forever. We can't afford to miss. Everything must be perfect, and Trump is putting the pieces into place to make it happen. (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");

Today Razib talks to Noah Smith, an American economist-turned-blogger known for his commentary on economics and public policy. His blog, Noahpinion, is one of the most popular on Substack. He earned a PhD in economics at University of Michigan and served as an assistant professor of finance at Stony Brook  University before leaving academia to become a full-time writer. He wrote a column for Bloomberg until 2021, when he turned his focus entirely to independent writing and his Substack newsletter. Smith is based out of San Francisco but spends part of the year in Japan. An enthusiast for Japanese culture, he is also one of the central nodes in English-speaking rabbit-twitter. First, Razib and Smith talk about the current cultural and political situation in Japan. In particular, how did Japan transform itself from a country with non immigration to one with a non-trivial number of migrants? Additionally, Razib asks Smith about the new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, the first woman in that role. Smith elucidates her relationship to the politics of two of her most prominent predecessors, Shinzo Abe and Junichiro Koizumi. Razib also asks, is she as far right as some people are saying? Then Smith and Razib discuss the "vibe shift" in American culture over the last five years, from the peak period of wokeness around 2020, to the current political ascendancy of MAGA and how Democrats are reconfiguring their politics.

In this episode of Econ 102, we're republishing a conversation between Noah Smith and Derek Thompson. They explore Derek's shift from The Atlantic to Substack and unpack the “abundance agenda” — a vision for revitalizing American politics through better housing, energy, and innovation policy. Their wide-ranging conversation touches on economic reform, trendspotting, and the evolving media landscape. – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Shopify Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠⁠⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠⁠⁠. AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://adquick.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @DKThomp @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Derek Thompson Substack: https://www.derekthompson.org/ Abundance: https://www.amazon.com/Abundance-Progress-Takes-Ezra-Klein/dp/1668023482 Paul Krugman: https://paulkrugman.substack.com/ Noahpinion: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.noahpinion.blog/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ – TAKEAWAYS: Derek's Move to Substack: Derek left The Atlantic after 17 years to join Substack, driven by "party wanderlust" - seeing the vibrant community of writers like Noah, Matt Yglesias, and others. Art of Trend Spotting: Noah praises Derek's unique ability to identify major trends before others, noting he's "earlier to spot new and important trends than any other blogger or writer." Derek reveals his method involves paying attention to that inner voice asking "what the fuck is that?" about everyday observations - essentially being like "observational humor but not necessarily humorous." Abundance Agenda's Impact: The conversation reveals how the abundance movement has gained significant traction, with Derek noting that partnering with Ezra Klein was strategic since Klein has unique influence within Democratic circles. They discuss "Ezra Klein Derangement Syndrome" - how Klein's prominence makes him both influential and a target. Need to attack MAGA degrowth ideology: Abundance advocates should more aggressively counter Trump's "scarcity mindset" that responds to every shortage with deprivation rather than increased production. Federal housing incentives: Race-to-the-top style funding to reward localities for pro-housing policies.

Noah Smith is a star economics writer behind the “Noahpinion” blog and co-host of the Econ 102 podcast. Smith joins Big Technology to discuss whether generative AI is actually boosting productivity or still waiting for its “electricity moment.” Tune in to hear his contrarian take on the so-called AI jobs apocalypse and how businesses will need to reorganize before the gains show up in earnings. We also cover immigration crackdowns, tariff uncertainty, wage-inequality myths, and how China's military buildup reshapes economic strategy. Hit play for a sharp, no-hype dive into AI, economics, and geopolitics.

Despite global chaos, America's economy shows puzzling resilience in the face of emerging capital flight, dangerous policy uncertainty, and spiraling debt.As global chaos erupts — from Iran to immigration raids in Big Box parking lots — James Carville's famous dictum echoes louder than ever: “It's the economy, stupid.”On this week's WhoWhatWhy podcast I talk with Noah Smith, author of the widely read substack Noahpinion. While consumer spending down, housing starts are declining, unemployment is creeping upward, and CNBC reveals more about global stability than CNN, understanding economic fundamentals becomes survival knowledge.Smith argues that US resilience so far reflects deep institutional strength built over generations — great businesses and economic frameworks that won't crumble overnight from policy shocks.More alarming is emerging capital flight — foreign investors questioning US economic seriousness for the first time since the 1970s. The traditional dollar-treasury bond relationship has decoupled, signaling unprecedented loss of confidence in American economic management.Smith traces much of this dysfunction to social media's destruction of American solidarity, creating tribal fear that technology will empower “enemy” groups rather than benefit all Americans.The conversation includes Smith's stark warning: Without immediate fiscal austerity, spiraling debt could trigger sovereign default — an economic catastrophe that would require generational recovery. Get full access to Talk Cocktail Podcast at jeffschechtman.substack.com/subscribe

Back after a year on hiatus! Noah Smith & Brad DeLong Record the Podcast They, at Least, Would Like to Listen to!; Aspirationally Bi-Weekly (Meaning Every Other Week); Aspirationally an hour...Sokrates: The people find some protector, whom they nurse into greatness… but then changes, as indicated in the old fable of the Temple of Zeus of the Wolf, of how he who tastes human flesh mixed up with the flesh of other sacrificial victims will turn into a wolf. Even so, the protector, once metaphorically tasting human blood, slaying some and exiling others, within or without the law, hinting at the cancellation of debts and the fair redistribution of lands, must then either perish or become a werewolf—that is, a tyrant…Key Insights:* We are back! After a year-long hiatus.* Hexapodia is a metaphor: a small, strange insight (like alien shrubs riding on six-wheeled carts as involuntary agents of the Great Evil) can provide key insight into useful and valuable Truth.* The Democratic Party is run by 27-year-old staffers, not geriatric figurehead politicians–this shapes messaging and internal dynamics.* The American progressive movement did not possess enough assibayah to keep from fracturing over Gaza War, especially among younger Democratic staffers influenced by social media discourse.* The left's adoption of “indigeneity” rhetoric undermined its ability to be a coalition in the face of tensions generated by the Hamas-Israel terrorism campaigns.* Trump's election with more popular votes than Harris destroyed Democratic belief that they had a right to oppose root-and-branch.* The belief that Democrats are the “natural majority” of the U.S. electorate is now false: nonvoters lean Trump, not so much Republican, and definitely not Democratic.* Trump's populism is not economic redistribution, but a claim to provide a redistribution of status and respect to those who feel culturally disrespected.* The Supreme Court's response to Trumpian overreach is likely to be very cautious—Barrett and Roberts are desperately eager to avoid any confrontation with Trump they might wind up losing, and Alito, Kavanaugh, Gorsuch, and Thomas will go the extra mile—they are Republicans who are judges, not judges who are Republicans, except in some extremis that may not even exist.* Trump's administration pursues selective repression through the state, rather than stochastic terrorism.* The economic consequence of the second Trump presidency look akin to another Brexit costing the U.S. ~10% of its prosperity, or more.* Social media, especially Twitter a status warfare machine–amplifying trolls and extremists, suppressing nuance.* People addicted to toxic media diets but lack the tools or education to curate better information environments.* SubStack and newsletters may become part of a healthier information ecosystem, a partial antidote to the toxic amplification of the Shouting Class on social media.* Human history is marked by information revolutions (e.g., printing press), each producing destructive upheaval before stabilization: destruction, that may or may not be creative.* As in the 1930s, we are entering a period where institutions–not mobs–become the threat, even as social unrest diminishes.* The dangers are real,and recognizing and adapting to new communication realities is key to preserving democracy.* Plato's Republic warned of democracy decaying into tyranny, especially when mob-like populism finds a strongman champion who then, having (metaphorically) fed on human flesh, becomes a (metaphorical) werewolf.* Enlightenment values relied more than we knew on print-based gatekeeping and slow communication; digital communication bypasses these safeguards.* The cycle of crisis and recovery is consistent through history: societies fall into holes they later dig out of, usually at great cost—or they don't.* &, as always, HEXAPODIA!References:* Brown, Chad P. 2025. “Trump's trade war timeline 2.0: An up-to-date guide”. PIIE. .* Center for Humane Technology. 2020. “The Social Dilemma”. .* Hamilton, Alexander, James Madison, & John Jay. 1788. The Federalist Papers. .* Nowinski, Wally. 2024. “Democrats benefit from low turnout now”. Noahpinion. July 20. .* Platon of the Athenai. -375 [1871]. Politeia. .* Rorty, Richard. 1998. Achieving Our Country. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. * Rothpletz, Peter. 2024. “Economics 101 tells us there's no going back from Trumpism”. The Hill. September 24. .* Smith, Noah. 2021. “Wokeness as Respect Redistribution”. Noahpinion..* Smith, Noah. 2016. “How to actually redistribute respect”. Noahpinion. March 23. .* Smith, Noah. 2013. “Redistribute wealth? No, redistribute respect”. Noahpinion. December 27. .* SubStack. 2025. “Building a New Economic Engine for Culture”. .&* Vinge, Vernor. 1999. A Deepness in the Sky. New York: Tor Books. .If reading this gets you Value Above Replacement, then become a free subscriber to this newsletter. And forward it! And if your VAR from this newsletter is in the three digits or more each year, please become a paid subscriber! I am trying to make you readers—and myself—smarter. Please tell me if I succeed, or how I fail… Get full access to Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality at braddelong.substack.com/subscribe

Andrew and economist Noah Smith explore the lasting damage caused by Trump's tariffs, warning of broken global alliances, economic instability, and potential stagflation. They delve into how these policies could lead to inflation, capital flight, and poor fiscal decisions with far-reaching consequences. Could these reckless policies trigger the next major economic crisis? Watch the episode on YouTube Got questions? Andrew has answers. Share with us at mailbag@andrewyang.com! Follow Andrew Yang: https://andrewyang.com | https://x.com/andrewyang Follow Noah Smith: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ | https://x.com/Noahpinion | https://www.linkedin.com/in/noah-smith-099122145/ ---- Get 50% off Factor at https://factormeals.com/yang50 Get an extra 3 months free at https://expressvpn.com/yang Get 20% off + 2 free pillows at https://helixsleep.com/yang code helixpartner20 ---- Subscribe to the Andrew Yang Podcast: Apple | Spotify To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today on Upstream, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith discuss the Abundance Agenda by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, the impact of the 2008 recession, Obama's presidency, and shifts in political ideology, focusing on the 'New Right' and its cultural and economic implications, while also touching upon the economic recovery strategies post-2008. This episode originally aired on Econ102 (April 1, 2025) —

This week, we're sharing Richard Hanania and Noah Smith's live conversation from Feb 6th,  recorded for their Substack audiences. This is the first time the two writers have met, and in this conversation they covered fundamental differences between the American right and left movements. They also discuss Elon Musk's positioning as the future Republican kingmaker and Noah's theory that Musk envisions coordinating a global "anti-woke alliance" with Putin and Xi. – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Found  Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102 AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Incogni Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/econ102 – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @RichardHanania @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Richard Hanania's Newsletter: https://www.richardhanania.com/  Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/  Too many Americans still fear the future: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/too-many-americans-still-fear-the  The chaos has arrived: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-chaos-has-arrived  Trump's Executive Branch Revolution: https://www.richardhanania.com/p/trumps-executive-branch-revolution  Trump impose large tariffs in first year?: https://manifold.markets/RichardHanania/trump-impose-large-tariffs-in-first?play=false  – TAKEAWAYS: Richard notes Trump's first administration achieved success with Middle East normalization agreements. Noah compares Ukraine war to Finland's Winter War - Ukraine may lose territory but maintain independence. Richard questions whether taking NATO membership off the table could have prevented the Ukraine conflict. Right-wing politics revolves around personal loyalty while left-wing politics centers on ideological purity. Elon Musk is positioning himself as the kingmaker for the post-Trump Republican party. Richard supports technological progress, believing future generations should benefit from AI and genetic engineering. Noah argues societies that resist technological progress inevitably get left behind in global competition. Richard expresses skepticism about Democrats' ability to reform, citing Obama's failed education reform efforts. Noah predicts Democrats won't move away from "institutional wokeness" until the 2030s.

This week, Noah Smith and Stripe CEO Patrick Collison recorded a live conversation on Substack covering topics such as American technological leadership, global competition, industrial policy, foreign direct investment, post-financial crisis productivity trends, US financial system advantages, progressive policies, the middle class, tariffs, immigration, technological advancements like humanoid robots, Gen Z's well-being, and key policy recommendations for economic and social progress. This conversation first aired in Noah's substack Noahpinion, so be sure to subscribe if you aren't already. --

This week Noah Smith and economist Paul Krugman hopped on a call to discuss Paul's departure from the New York Times, the benefits of independent writing, U.S. manufacturing and industrial policy, geopolitics, Trump 2.0, and the impact of public opinion on economic and political discourse. This conversation first aired in Noah's substack Noahpinion, so be sure to subscribe if you aren't already. --

​​Our guest today is economist Noah Smith, who made time for an in-person interview during his recent trip to Taiwan. He runs the Noahpinion substack and is the author of an upcoming book on the revival of the Japanese economy.  We discuss… The goals of Silicon Valley's pro-Trump constituency, from deregulation, to tariffs, to China policy, Whether Elon is standing up for Taiwan behind closed doors, Whether Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and Poland need their own nuclear weapons, How Taiwan could bargain for independence with China's leaders post-Xi, National health insurance as a potential solution to China's aggregate demand problem, A Georgist perspective on China's real estate problem, Why China's demographic issues are overstated,  Recommendations for Taiwan's economic development. To hear more of Noah's musings, check out Econ 102, a podcast by Turpentine. Outtro music: Wifey by Dizzy Dizzo 蔡詩芸 (Youtube Link) Cover art: 清 冷枚 梧桐双兔图 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

​​Our guest today is economist Noah Smith, who made time for an in-person interview during his recent trip to Taiwan. He runs the Noahpinion substack and is the author of an upcoming book on the revival of the Japanese economy.  We discuss… The goals of Silicon Valley's pro-Trump constituency, from deregulation, to tariffs, to China policy, Whether Elon is standing up for Taiwan behind closed doors, Whether Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and Poland need their own nuclear weapons, How Taiwan could bargain for independence with China's leaders post-Xi, National health insurance as a potential solution to China's aggregate demand problem, A Georgist perspective on China's real estate problem, Why China's demographic issues are overstated,  Recommendations for Taiwan's economic development. To hear more of Noah's musings, check out Econ 102, a podcast by Turpentine. Outtro music: Wifey by Dizzy Dizzo 蔡詩芸 (Youtube Link) Cover art: 清 冷枚 梧桐双兔图 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week on Upstream, we're releasing an episode of Econ102. Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith talk with Katherine Dee (@default_friend) about dating in the 21st century, differences in dating markets, the impact of feminism, technology's influence on cultural creativity, societal shifts, and the state of online subcultures. —

This week, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith discuss modern dating dynamics, cultural shifts, and the impact of technology and social media on relationships with author and former dating advice columnist Katherine Dee, exploring generational differences contributing to the gender war and the broader societal implications. --

In today's special episode, we're sharing a conversation between Noah Smith and Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin recorded back in June for the Bankless podcast. They discuss whether authoritarian regimes could outcompete liberal democracies in the 21st century, exploring the impact of technological advancements, the internet, and decentralized technologies like crypto on information dynamics and the preservation of liberal values. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/e7dc596f-bc8e-4574-aebd-c6f579a76175 --

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg tackle the shift in economic research from empirical studies to "big think" theories, critically examine Acemoglu's work on institutions and AI's impact on jobs, and debate the future of economics as a science. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/d1548747-43db-4b71-b0a8-af285d3deafd  —

Noah Smith, who writes the Noahpinion Substack blog, joined the America's Work Force Union Podcast to discuss his article, “Let us pause to appreciate the remarkable U.S. economy.” Jody Calemine, AFL-CIO Director of Advocacy, appeared on the America's Work Force Union Podcast and spoke about the effort by Congress to pass a Continuing Resolution to fund the government through the end of the year.

In this episode of Turpentine VC, we're releasing one of our most popular interviews with Roger Ehrenberg, owner of IA Capital Partners and the Managing Partner of Eberg Capital. Roger discusses his contrarian strategy to seed investing that has allowed him to generate 10x fund returns, and emphasizes the importance of focusing on concentrated portfolios to achieve outsized success. They talk about the impact of interest rates, macroeconomic factors, and the potential of sports investments. —

Anish Acharya, General Partner at Andreessen Horowitz, dives deep into the transformative potential of AI in the consumer technology sector. Anish discusses a16z's "Abundance Agenda," detailing how AI is set to revolutionize personal finance, education, wellness, and social interactions. From the concept of "self-driving money" to AI-powered companions and personalized learning, Anish paints a vivid picture of the future while shedding light on the firms decision making and focus areas. He also discusses the challenges and opportunities for startups, offering valuable insights for entrepreneurs and investors alike. —

In today's episode, Noah Smith and Brad DeLong tackle pressing topics such as the potential for a 'China Shock 2', the effectiveness of missile defense systems, and the shifting role of economists since the Great Recession. They also explore the nuances of economic theory, policy implementation, and real-world outcomes, particularly in a fast-paced information age.  --

Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith are joined by Dario Amodei, CEO and Co-founder of Anthropic. Dario talks about the economics of AI development, the comparative advantage of AI companies like Anthropic, AI safety, and his stance on California's SB 1047 bill. They also discuss the impacts of AI on global power dynamics, competition between the US and China, and inequality in an AI-powered world. This episode was recorded this week on Turpentine's show Econ 102. Check it out for more like this: https://open.spotify.com/show/6q7Gn5lP8TTtBPuV1NJSGs?si=8fab4d65ddf5422a —

In this episode of Turpentine VC, we revisit one of our most referenced interviews with Trae Stephens, General Partner at Founders Fund and co-founder of Anduril. Trae discusses the unique DNA of Founders Fund, emphasizing the firm's culture of open debate and high conviction in investments. He highlights the importance of concentrated portfolios, and how Founders Fund's no-process approach differentiates them from other VC firms. They also discuss Founders Fund decision-making, governance, and incubation practices.

Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith are joined by Dario Amodei, CEO and Co-founder of Anthropic. Dario talks about the economics of AI development, the comparative advantage of AI companies like Anthropic, AI safety, and his stance on California's SB 1047 bill. They also discuss the impacts of AI on global power dynamics, competition between the US and China, and inequality in an AI-powered world. This episode was recorded this week on Turpentine's show Econ 102. Check it out for more like this: https://open.spotify.com/show/6q7Gn5lP8TTtBPuV1NJSGs?si=8fab4d65ddf5422a —

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg are joined by Dario Amodei, CEO and Co-founder of Anthropic. Dario talks about the economics of AI development, the comparative advantage of AI companies like Anthropic, AI safety, and his stance on California's SB 1047 bill. They also discuss the impacts of AI on global power dynamics, competition between the US and China, and inequality in an AI-powered world. --

In this episode of Turpentine VC, Erik Torenberg welcomes back Tomasz Tunguz, GP of Theory Ventures. They dissect the investment landscape of data businesses through the lens of Databricks. They analyze the company's growth trajectory, competition with Snowflake, and its potential in the AI era. Tom presents bull and bear investment cases, discusses valuation metrics, and explores the strategic importance of data catalogs. They also cover the emerging trends in the modern data stack, potential market consolidation, and the impact of AI on investment opportunities.

This week on Turpentine VC, we're releasing a conversation between Erik Torenberg, Laura Deming of The Longevity Fund and Will Eden of Sylvan Consulting (prior to that, with Thiel capital) focused on the past, present and future of biotech. Recorded in 2019, they discuss platform companies and the evolving biotech investment landscape, examining segments like therapeutics, cell and gene therapies. Will and Laura share insights on the historical waves of biotech, the FDA's role, and the intersections of biotech and tech investment strategies. They address challenges in evaluating biotech startups, the growth in longevity research since 2011, and the potential for extending life spans through various scientific advancements.

Erik Torenberg sat down with Seth Bannon, co-founder and general partner at Fifty Years, a pre-seed and seed focused VC firm. They discuss the challenges of commercializing academic research, the differences between biotech and tech bio companies, exploring recent advancements in bioengineering, genetic engineering, synthetic biology, and the significance of the "bio moment." They also cover the impact of AI and machine learning on biological research and examine alternative funding models transforming the scientific startup landscape. Control your company's spending and close your books 3x faster: visit rippling.com/spend for a free demo and one month free trial.

Greg Raiten, a former lawyer and a co-founder at The Suite, a curated community-based platform for C-suite executives, joins Erik Torenberg to share the evolution of The Suite, from a side project that grew into a revenue-generating model through membership and sponsorships. They also discuss the process of building and scaling community-based businesses, effectiveness of paid memberships, and exploring future community expansion into other C-suite roles.

In this episode, Sasha sits down with Jody Padar, the Radical CPA, 3x author, to discuss the incentive misalignment in accounting firms, and how radical pricing can solve it. Jody shares her insights on the evolving landscape of accounting, discussing the need for firms to adapt to new technologies, embrace value-based pricing, and shift from traditional hourly billing models. She emphasizes the importance of redefining the accountant-client relationship in the digital age, advocating for a more advisory-focused approach. Jody also addresses the challenges facing the accounting profession, including talent shortages and the impact of automation, while offering her vision for the future of accounting firms. --

This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg are joined by Omar Shams, the founder of Mutable AI, for a deep dive into Omar's great piece, The AI Organization. In this conversation, they explore the potential of AI to transform organizational productivity, the limitations of financial metrics in GDP, and AI's role in political processes and societal structures.

What if the information anarchy of the internet spells the downfall of liberalism? Economist Noah Smith and Ethereum Founder Vitalik Buterin join us for a fascinating discussion on why Authoritarianism might be the answer to the current information warfare. Yes, you heard that right. We start the episode by defining liberalism, how it has brought excessive polarization and why totalitarianism might be the only solution left. We then steelman the case against this same argument and how blockchains and crypto could play a role in all this. ------ ✨ Mint the episode on Zora ✨ https://zora.co/collect/zora:0x0c294913a7596b427add7dcbd6d7bbfc7338d53f/20?referrer=0x077Fe9e96Aa9b20Bd36F1C6290f54F8717C5674E  ------

Noah Smith & Brad DeLong Record the Podcast We, at Least, Would Like to Listen to!; Aspirationally Bi-Weekly (Meaning Every Other Week); Aspirationally an hour...Key Insights:* Brad DeLong says: You say economics and economists in decline—I see bad economists in decline.* Brad DeLong says: You see missile defense as remarkably effective—I see it as marginally effective, at best.* Brad DeLong says: You say China Shock II—I say China Shock I required the GWB administration as witting and unwitting co-conspirator.* Noah Smith says: These are self-refuting prophecies: my defense of missile defense was to say that it can be remarkably effective in a few possible instances, but those plausible ones for the next two decades; my title “the decade of the second China shock” and my subhead “brace yourselves” were intended to spur action to keep there from being a second China shock.* Noah Smith says: Economists advising badly had a lot of influence in 2008 and after, and still have a substantial amount today—so the total influence of economists has decreased since 2008, and this is not necessarily a bad thing.* The only real way to get nuance is to write a whole book and then have people deeply engage with it, which requires that they be on a trans-oceanic flight with dodgy Wi-Fi, and be otherwise bored.* The internet makes us less nuanced than we should be.* &, as always, HEXAPODIA!References:* Smith, Noah. 2024. “Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense”. Noahpinion. April 15. . * Smith, Noah. 2024. “Twilight of the economists?” Noahpinion. April 12. .* Smith, Noah. 2024. “The decade of the Second China Shock”. March 23. .&* Vinge, Vernor. 1999. A Deepness in the Sky. New York: Tor Books. . Get full access to Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality at braddelong.substack.com/subscribe

How effective has America's new industrial policy been to date? How seriously should western countries take the threat of a wave of cheap Chinese goods flooding the global marketplace? Is the end of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency in sight? What lessons can be drawn from Japan's 20-year history of unconventional monetary policy? And how is American public opinion shifting on issues ranging from domestic political polarization to the role of the US in the world? In the next edition of IIEA Insights, polymath analyst Noah Smith will answer these question and others about which he has written recently. Noah Smith is an American blogger, journalist, and commentator on economics and current events. A former assistant professor of Behavioral Finance at Stony Brook University, Smith writes for his own Substack blog, Noahpinion, and posts prolifically to his more than 300,000 followers on X. He has also written for publications including Bloomberg, Quartz, Associated Press, Business Insider, and The Atlantic.

In this episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg are joined by Kyla Scanlon, creator, writer, analyst, and author of new book “In this Economy?" They discuss the vibecession, the housing crisis, leader fatigue, and the impact of the economy on political polarization and the age of austerity. The conversation also covers the impact of Trump's economic policies, the risk of hyperinflation, and the potential for war with China. Crush your 2024 goals and learn a new language with Babbel - get 60% off at Babbel.com/econ102 - Recommended Podcast: The Riff with Byrne Hobart Byrne Hobart, the writer of The Diff, is revered in Silicon Valley. You can get an hour with him each week. See for yourself how his thinking can upgrade yours. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6rANlV54GCARLgMOtpkzKt Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-riff-with-byrne-hobart-and-erik-torenberg/id1716646486 -- SPONSORS: BABBEL | BEEHIIV

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit andrewsullivan.substack.comNoah is a journalist who covers economics and geopolitics. A former assistant professor of Behavioral Finance at Stony Brook University and an early blogger, he became an opinion columnist at Bloomberg in 2014. He left after seven years to focus on his own substack, Noahpinion, which you should definitely check out.For two clips of our convo — on why we should fear a military strike from China, and the good news about tech and the economy we don't pay enough attention to — pop over to our YouTube page. Other topics: the amazing story of Fawlty Towers triggering Noah's birth in Oklahoma; raised in Aggie country; his father the psych professor; Noah's clinical depression after his mom died young; trolling X File fans on the early web; the internet as an escape back then, before social media ruined it; joining the early blogs; Jonah Goldberg and Liberal Fascism; Noah living in Japan after Battle Royale gripped him; Yakuza burning down his apartment; the MAX show Tokyo Vice; debunking stereotypes about Japan (e.g. xenophobia); his tech optimism; Ozempic and HIV drugs; wages and wealth growing in the US; tuition falling; inflation leveling; the YIMBY movement; how AI will empower the normies; the collapse of global poverty; the China threat; EVs and tariffs; industrial policy as means for national security; risking global war over Taiwan; Noah downplaying the chips factor; the chance of another Pearl Harbor — from China; TikTok and controlling US media; the woke wars as a distraction; “information tournaments”; debating mass immigration; agreeing about the asylum clusterfucker; questioning whether the US was ever a melting pot; Biden catching up on the border and inflation; how he's more likely to tighten the budget than Trump; debating which nominee is losing his marbles more; and why Ukraine and Gaza are diversions from China.Browse the Dishcast archive for an episode you might enjoy (the first 102 are free in their entirety — subscribe to get everything else). Coming up: Nellie Bowles on the woke revolution, George Will on Trump and conservatism, Lionel Shriver on her new novel, Elizabeth Corey on Oakeshott, Tim Shipman on the UK elections, Erick Erickson on the left's spiritual crisis, Bill Wasik and Monica Murphy on animal cruelty, and the great Van Jones! Send any guest recs, dissents, and other comments to dish@andrewsullivan.com.

Todays episode features a conversation between Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discussing the recent angry posts on X from David Austin Walsh, a history postdoc at Yale, and what this controversy says about elite overproduction in the US. They also cover the the rise of right-wing muckrakers, discuss what the conservative movement needs now, and who they consider the smartest thinkers today are — on the left and the right. -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Econ 102 with Noah Smith Every week, Noah Smith, economist and Noahpinion writer break down current events through the lens of economics — while keeping econ entertaining. Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6q7Gn5lP8TTtBPuV1NJSGs Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/econ-102-with-noah-smith-and-erik-torenberg/id1696419056 -- SPONSORS: BEEHIIV | SQUAD

Protests over Israel’s war in Gaza have erupted at universities across the United States. We’ll discuss what the sweeping protests and other high-profile political battles at colleges could mean for the economics of higher education. And, what the Federal Reserve might look like under a second Donald Trump presidency. Plus, we’ll play a round of Half Full / Half Empty! Here’s everything we talked about today: “Protests Threaten College Graduations, Denying Seniors Second Chance at Normalcy” from The New York Times “What students say about the protests rocking their campuses” from The Washington Post “Americans are falling out of love with the idea of college” from Noahpinion “Americans Are Losing Faith in College Education, WSJ-NORC Poll Finds” from The Wall Street Journal “Trump Allies Draw Up Plans to Blunt Fed's Independence” from The Wall Street Journal “Job trend ‘resenteeism’ has employees coasting through workdays and hanging on, rather than quitting” from Fox Business “How science could disrupt the gin industry” from Marketplace “Celebs head to DC for correspondents' dinner: Here's who's coming” from The Hill “California lawmakers are tired of Clear’s airport line-cutters — but airlines are not” from Fast Company “Christopher Bess, 5-year-old basketball coach, goes viral” from Marketplace Want more Make Me Smart in your life? Sign up for our newsletter at marketplace.org/smarter.

Protests over Israel’s war in Gaza have erupted at universities across the United States. We’ll discuss what the sweeping protests and other high-profile political battles at colleges could mean for the economics of higher education. And, what the Federal Reserve might look like under a second Donald Trump presidency. Plus, we’ll play a round of Half Full / Half Empty! Here’s everything we talked about today: “Protests Threaten College Graduations, Denying Seniors Second Chance at Normalcy” from The New York Times “What students say about the protests rocking their campuses” from The Washington Post “Americans are falling out of love with the idea of college” from Noahpinion “Americans Are Losing Faith in College Education, WSJ-NORC Poll Finds” from The Wall Street Journal “Trump Allies Draw Up Plans to Blunt Fed's Independence” from The Wall Street Journal “Job trend ‘resenteeism’ has employees coasting through workdays and hanging on, rather than quitting” from Fox Business “How science could disrupt the gin industry” from Marketplace “Celebs head to DC for correspondents' dinner: Here's who's coming” from The Hill “California lawmakers are tired of Clear’s airport line-cutters — but airlines are not” from Fast Company “Christopher Bess, 5-year-old basketball coach, goes viral” from Marketplace Want more Make Me Smart in your life? Sign up for our newsletter at marketplace.org/smarter.

Protests over Israel’s war in Gaza have erupted at universities across the United States. We’ll discuss what the sweeping protests and other high-profile political battles at colleges could mean for the economics of higher education. And, what the Federal Reserve might look like under a second Donald Trump presidency. Plus, we’ll play a round of Half Full / Half Empty! Here’s everything we talked about today: “Protests Threaten College Graduations, Denying Seniors Second Chance at Normalcy” from The New York Times “What students say about the protests rocking their campuses” from The Washington Post “Americans are falling out of love with the idea of college” from Noahpinion “Americans Are Losing Faith in College Education, WSJ-NORC Poll Finds” from The Wall Street Journal “Trump Allies Draw Up Plans to Blunt Fed's Independence” from The Wall Street Journal “Job trend ‘resenteeism’ has employees coasting through workdays and hanging on, rather than quitting” from Fox Business “How science could disrupt the gin industry” from Marketplace “Celebs head to DC for correspondents' dinner: Here's who's coming” from The Hill “California lawmakers are tired of Clear’s airport line-cutters — but airlines are not” from Fast Company “Christopher Bess, 5-year-old basketball coach, goes viral” from Marketplace Want more Make Me Smart in your life? Sign up for our newsletter at marketplace.org/smarter.

In this week's episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg dive into various econ topics and tackle listener questions! They cover: government spending and the national debt, discussion on taxation, wealth taxes and economic outcome of the next U.S. election, as well as differences in respect and status in the United States and Japan, and lessons learned from deficit spending. This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We're launching new shows every week, and we're looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co. _ SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co _ RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Turpentine Finance Host Sasha Orloff (3x Founder & CEO) is joined by top founders and finance leaders at high growth tech companies who share how they navigated huge make-or-break decisions, rode inflection points, and architected success. If you want to learn the mental models and tactics top business leaders and CFOs, subscribe below. Debut episode features Casey Woo unpacking his wild ride managing billions in budgets at WeWork – arguably one of the craziest capital stories ever. Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5BflNhFxxLjqT2RA47352G Listen on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1704418764 _ Links: Noah Smith's Noahpinion https://www.noahpinion.blog _  X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik) @TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) _ Timestamps: (00:00) Episode Preview (01:02) Noah's Japan trip (02:33) Why is the U.S. doing so much deficit spending? (08:04) Post-COVID economic response (14:52) Levers of dealing with the National debt (21:27) 2024 Election Speculations: Economic outcomes of Trump vs. Biden (25:26) Pros and cons of a Wealth tax (30:35) Sponsor: Turpentine (32:34) Impact of Funding the IRS and repealing Trump's tax cuts (33:01) Reducing government spending (41:11) Addressing economic inequality in the U.S. (51:26) Wrap

In this episode, Ravi welcomes Noah Smith from Noahpinion. They kick off the show by discussing the economic, political, and cultural challenges of today's immigration realities, covering topics from how immigrants impact U.S. wages to whether there are ties between immigration and rising crime rates. Will AI save us? Noah and Ravi debate the potential effects of AI on the workforce and discuss the role of comparative advantage in determining AI's ultimate impact on the world. Finally, they tackle the importance of math education in narrowing educational gaps and promoting equity, particularly for disadvantaged students, and how the continued devaluation of the teaching profession has affected education as a whole. Timestamps: Economics of Immigration - 0:01 AI Jobs - 32:45 Bring Back Math - 41:23 Leave us a voicemail with your thoughts on the show! 321-200-0570 Subscribe to our feed on Spotify: http://bitly.ws/zC9K Subscribe to our Substack: https://thelostdebate.substack.com/ Follow The Branch on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thebranchmedia/ Follow The Branch on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebranchmedia Follow The Branch on Twitter: https://twitter.com/thebranchmedia The Branch website: http://thebranchmedia.org/ Lost Debate is also available on the following platforms:  Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-lost-debate/id1591300785 Google: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vTERJNTc1ODE3Mzk3Nw  iHeart: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/269-the-lost-debate-88330217/ Amazon Music: https://music.amazon.co.uk/podcasts/752ca262-2801-466d-9654-2024de72bd1f/the-lost-debate

This episode is a continuation of analyzing the economies around the world, with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg focusing on the Middle East, Africa, South America, and North America. They discuss the economic challenges and solutions in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, as well as Latin America's drug problem and Canada's economic stagnation. This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We're launching new shows every week, and we're looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co. _ SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co _ RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Autopilot explores the adoption and rollout of AI in the industries that drive the economy and the dynamic founders bringing rapid change to slow-moving industries. From law, to hardware, to aviation, Will Summerlin interviews founders backed by Benchmark, Greylock, and more to learn how they're automating at the frontiers in entrenched industries. Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6YQZkKHN7EP2yWedAvSxBC?si=18377c69a2804333 Listen on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/autopilot-with-will-summerlin/id1738163836. _ Links: Noah Smith's Noahpinion https://www.noahpinion.blog _  X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik) @TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) _ TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:32) Egypt's economic challenges (05:25) How rich is Saudi Arabia (13:57) Sponsor: Turpentine (15:13) Africa's population growth and demographic dynamics (32:49) Africa's economic potential (38:58) Mexico's manufacturing and security woes (43:48) Brazil's potential in South American manufacturing (48:01) Latin America's fight against inequality (55:12) Dominican Republic's economic success (01:00:51) Canada's economic stagnation (01:05:33) Wrap  

In our second installment of Analyzing the Economies Around the World, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg cover Europe and Turkey. They discuss the UK's productivity issues, France's nuclear energy investments, Germany's weaknesses, Poland's economic success, Turkey's economic policies, and immigration challenges across the EU and Europe. This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We're launching new shows every week, and we're looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co. _ SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co _ RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Autopilot explores the adoption and rollout of AI in the industries that drive the economy and the dynamic founders bringing rapid change to slow-moving industries. From law, to hardware, to aviation, Will Summerlin interviews founders backed by Benchmark, Greylock, and more to learn how they're automating at the frontiers in entrenched industries. Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6YQZkKHN7EP2yWedAvSxBC?si=18377c69a2804333 Listen on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/autopilot-with-will-summerlin/id1738163836. _ Links: Noah Smith's Noahpinion https://www.noahpinion.blog _  X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik) @TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) _ TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (00:30) UK's economic challenges (07:25) France's nuclear power success (12:02) Germany's trust problem (24:28) Sponsor: Turpentine (25:36) Italy's stagnant and declining economy (26:33) Poland's economic rise (31:24) Poland responding to external threats (32:25) Europe's immigration challenges (45:13) EU's future despite economic and regulatory obstacles. (52:34) Turkey's economic landscape and prospects (58:17) Wrap

In this special roundtable episode, Erik Torenberg is joined by Brad Hargreaves (the founder of Common, co-founder of General Assembly, and writer of Thesis Driven) and Noah Smith (podcast host, economist and writer of Noahpinion). They discuss the future of real estate and housing in America, the impact of regulations, and the potential of new cities.

In this episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg talk about the world's biggest economies including US, China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Russia, Australia, and more, looking at things like inflation, debt, industrial policy, and population challenges. They talk about what each country does well and where they might struggle, and offer ideas about what could happen next. This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We're launching new shows every week, and we're looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co. - SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co - SPONSOR: BRAVE Get first-party targeting with Brave's private ad platform: cookieless and future proof ad formats for all your business needs. Performance meets privacy. Head to https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “MoZ” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign. - Links: Noah Smith's Noahpinion https://www.noahpinion.blog -  X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik) @TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) - TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (01:03) U.S. Economy: Trends and Concerns (08:01) Transition to China's Economy: Massive Property Bust (15:28) Sponsor: Brave | Turpentine (21:36) Segue to Japan's Economy: Key Hub of the Electronics Manufacturing (30:11) Korean Economic Struggles (33:05) South Korea's Technological Capabilities and International Relations (34:14) Exploring Taiwan's Economy and Challenges (36:22) Indonesia's Manufacturing Shift (37:55) Vietnam's Economic Strategy and Development Needs (40:31) India's Poverty Reduction and Infrastructure Investments (44:26) Pakistan Economic Mismanagement (48:38) Philippines: Underrated Investment Destination (49:33) Transition to Australia: The Progressive Utopia (52:02) Russia Economy at War (59:59) Wrap Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In which Noah Smith & Brad DeLong wish Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson had written a very different book than their "Power & Progress" is...Key Insights:* Acemoglu & Johnson should have written a very different book—one about how some technologies complement and others substitute for labor, and it is very important to maximize the first.* Neither Noah Smith nor Brad DeLong is at all comfortable with “power” as a category in economics other than as the ability to credibly threaten to commit violence or theft.* Acemoglu & Robinson's Why Nations Fail is a truly great book. Power & Progress is not.* We should not confuse James Robinson with Simon Johnson* Billionaires running oligopolistic tech firms are not trustworthy stewards of the future of our economy.* The IBM 701 Defense Calculator of 1953 is rather cool. * The lurkers agree with Noah Smith in the DMs.* The power loom caused technological unemployment because the rest of the value chain—cotton growing, spinning, and garment-making—was rigid, hence the elasticity of demand for the transformation thread → cloth was low.* We need more examples of bad technologies than the cotton gin and the Roman Empire.References: * Acemoglu, Daron, & Simon Johnson. 2023. Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity. New York; Hachette Book Group. * Acemoglu, Daron, & James A. Robinson. 2012. Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty. New York: Crown Publishers. * Besi. 2023. “Join us Tues. Oct. 10 at 4pm Pacific for a talk by @MITSloan's Simon Johnson…” Twitter. October 9. .* DeLong, J. Bradford. 2024. “What To Do About the Dependence of the Form Progress Takes on Power?: Quick Takes on Acemoglu & Johnson's "Power & Progress”. Grasping Reality. February 29.* DeLong, J. Bradford; & Noah Smith. 2023. “We Cannot Tell in Advance Which Technologies Are Labor-Augmenting & Which Are Labor-Replacing”. Hexapodia. XLIX, July 7. * Gruber, Jonathan, & Simon Johnson. 2019. Jump-Starting America: How Breakthrough Science Can Revive Economic Growth and the American Dream.The book is available on the Internet Archive: .* Johnson, Simon, & James Kwak. 2011. 13 Bankers: The Wall Street Takeover and the Next Financial Meltdown. New York: Vintage Books. .* Smith, Noah. 2024. “Book Review: Power & Progress”. Noahpinion. February 21. * Walton, Jo. 1998. “The Lurkers Support Me in Email”. May 16. .+, of course:* Vinge, Vernor. 1992. A Fire Upon the Deep. New York: TOR. . Get full access to Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality at braddelong.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg are joined by Nathan Labenz, co-host of The Cognitive Revolution Podcast, to deep dive into AI's impact on our economy and society. They discuss how AI might affect the job market and society, drawing comparisons to past economic changes. If you're looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We're launching new shows every week, and we're looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co. - RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Sourcery by Molly O'Shea Sourcery by Molly O'Shea brings the conversations founders and investors have behind closed doors into the light. Subscribe for upcoming episodes with: Delian Asparouhov of Founders Fund and Varda Space, and Chris Power of Hadrian. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2Ni3Tese9CtZa3oxpCjgTg YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SourceryVC/ - SPONSOR: NETSUITE NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you're looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. – Links: Noah Smith's Noahpinion https://www.noahpinion.blog The Cognitive Revolution podcast Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6yHyok3M3BjqzR0VB5MSyk Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1669813431 –  X / TWITTER: @labenz (Nathan) @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik) @TurpentineMedia (Turpentine) –   TIMESTAMPS (00:00) Intro (00:39) AI and the Future of Employment (03:48) The Intersection of AI, Robotics, and Biotech (04:53) Economic Disruption (06:33) Future of Jobs in an AI-Dominated World (08:22) AI's Impact on Economy (10:36) Pessimism Surrounding AI's Economic Impact (12:21) Comparative Advantage in the AI Era (14:02) AI Replacing Human Jobs (19:19) Sponsor: Netsuite (19:30) New Social Contract in the AI Era (34:21) Human Wages in an AI-Dominated Economy (39:31) Impact of AI on Job Market (41:40) Fear of AI Taking Over Human Jobs (47:47) Role of Government in AI Development (50:06) Potential Risks and Benefits of AI (53:14) Future of AI and Its Social Impact (58:45) Fear of Totalitarian States and AI (01:05:35) The Need for a Positive Vision for AI (01:11:18) Wrap

In today's episode, join us in a riveting conversation with Taiwan's Digital Minister Audrey Tang and acclaimed opinion writer Noah Smith. Together, they delve into the world of techno-optimism and discuss the potential for explosive economic growth with AI, as well as the critical considerations for its regulation. Additionally, they share their insights into the role of Large Language Models in combating disinformation and shaping a tech-driven future. Host ⎸ Arnaud Campagne (TaiwanPlus) Guests ⎸ Noah Smith and Audrey Tang Season 2 of Innovative Minds deep-dives into artificial intelligence, digital democracy, and freedom of expression with leading tech figures. This podcast is released under a CC BY 4.0. Creative Commons licence.

For this episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg are joined by Sebastian Bensusan, an Argentinian engineer, to discuss Argentina's unique inflation problem, its agricultural and mining sectors, dollarization, voting patterns, and more. Match a donation up to $100 for your favorite charity with GiveWell by going to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. -- Sponsors: GIVEWELL | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they've found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you've never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you're looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. -- Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co – LINKS: - Sebastian Bensusan's blog: https://blog.sbensu.com/ - Noahpinion on Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ - Noah Smith, "Argentina's macroeconomic situation is even worse up close" on Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/argentinas-macroeconomic-situation – X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @sebasbensu (Sebastian) @eriktorenberg (Erik) – TIMESTAMPS: (00:55) Episode Preview (03:25) Argentina's Economy & Industries (09:00) Lack of Development State (14:19) Argentina's Welfare State (15:45) SPONSOR: GIVEWELL (17:41) Fiscal Dominance & Monetary Financing (28:20) Hyperinflation & Dollarization (30:46) SPONSOR: NETSUITE (43:27) Inflation & Threshold Effects (48:39) Impact of Inflation on Bonds & Borrowers (52:55) The Vicious Cycle of Inflation in Argentina (55:10) Effects on Savings (57:36) Need for Development State (01:00:01) Replacing Welfare State with Growth (01:08:14) Privatization & Corruption in Argentina (01:10:40) The Essence of a Development State (01:13:04) Refocusing Argentina on Real Economy (01:14:03) Process-Oriented vs Outcome-Oriented (01:14:59) Post-Macroeconomics Argentina

In a time when dubious media narratives about the economy often overshadow hard data, the latest episode of the WhoWhatWhy podcast features Noah Smith, the thought-provoking economist behind Noahpinion substack. Smith's analysis of “vibes vs. data” sheds light on the interplay between public sentiment and tangible economic metrics in the US. Get full access to Talk Cocktail Podcast at jeffschechtman.substack.com/subscribe

In this house episode, we speak with Concept Bureau strategist Rebecca Johnson about the concept of "weirdness" and brands. All humans are weird, and brands that are willing to venture into strange and bizarre territories have a chance to connect with their audiences in a deeply emotional way. From Puppy Monkey Baby to the Pet Rock, we analyze brand weirdness's impact on consumer engagement and differentiation. Weird is risky, but it's also highly relatable when it's done right. It can engender a form of trust that brands don't usually experience with their users, while also signaling a brand's values and vision. It's also a strong force of creativity. Everything new feels weird at first. Instead of shying away, Rebecca talks about how to lean into the odd side of human nature and create something novel.Links to interesting things mentioned in this episode and further reading:Drawing Wisdom from the Weird: Understanding the Influence of Weird on Brands and the Future (Concept Bureau): https://conceptbureau.com/drawing-wisdom-from-the-weird/Goodbye Relevance, Hello Relatability: The New Industry of Brand Connection (Concept Bureau): https://conceptbureau.com/goodbye-relevance-hello-relatability-the-new-industry-of-brand-connection/Interview: Kevin Kelly, editor, author, and futurist (Noahpinion): https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/interview-kevin-kelly-editor-authorPrivate Dinner Party: Clothing Not Allowed (The New York Times): https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/28/style/fude-dinner-experience-nude.html?partner=slack&smid=sl-shareThe Tube Girl is selling confidence — and her audience is lining up (The Washington Post): https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/09/19/tube-girl-sabrina-bahsoon/This Man Married a Fictional Character. He'd Like You to Hear Him Out. (The New York Times): https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/24/business/akihiko-kondo-fictional-character-relationships.htmlFor more brand strategy thinking: https://www.theconceptbureau.com/

Noah Smith is a renaissance man, blogger, and commentator. Noah's popular blog, Noahpinion, focuses on economics, technology, and current events. […] The post Noah Smith on digital technology adoption, energy, and economic progress appeared first on Luminary.fm.

Noah Smith is an economist, former Bloomberg columnist and the writer of the Noahpinion newsletter.Find Noah:https://twitter.com/NoahpinionMentioned in the episode:https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/02/opinion/democrats-liberalism.htmlhttps://technomancers.ai/japan-goes-all-in-copyright-doesnt-apply-to-ai-training/https://www.amazon.ca/Concrete-Economics-Hamilton-Approach-Economic/dp/1422189813https://eig.org/new-start-ups-break-record-in-2021-unpacking-the-numbers/https://twitter.com/BrandonLBradforhttps://twitter.com/wil_da_beast630 Get full access to From the New World at www.fromthenew.world/subscribe

Noah is an American economist and writer best known for his Substack, Noahpinion. He has made contributions to Bloomberg, Quartz, and The Atlantic, among other publications. Before starting his Substack, Noah wrote full-time for Bloomberg. Prior to that, he was an assistant professor of finance at Stony Brook University. Follow Noah on Twitter @Noahpinion. [0:00] - Noah's story and how his Substack got started [4:59] - The role of Substack and individual opinion writers in today's media environment [12:11] - The duality of work for college professors [20:43] - Declining trust in mainstream media institutions [29:40] - How opinion writing differs from traditional journalism [35:17] - Noah's process in researching and writing about the Silicon Valley Bank collapse [39:22] - Noah's perspective on the ongoing banking crisis [44:48] - Why Noah considers himself a techno-optimist homeofjake.com

Welcome to #103rd episode of The Startup Operator Roundup. The Roundup is our weekly views on the news from the Indian Startup Ecosystem. ------------------------------------- Connect with Us: Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/startup-operator​Twitter: https://twitter.com/OperatorStartup ------------------------------------- Talk of town tweet: https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1636773743413592065?s=20   Topics:00:00 Opening Comments 03:10 GIFT City supporting startups affected by SVB collapse 06:26 India's milestones in 75 days of 2023 09:16 PM MITRA to boost textiles 11:08 IT rules to remove bloatware on phones 13:14 Karnataka plans to incentivize startups to go beyond Bengaluru 15:30 IIT Madras - a Haven for deep tech startups 18:43 Other Fundraises 19:34 Talk of town If you liked this episode, let us know by hitting the like button and share with your friends and family. Please also remember to subscribe to our channel and switch on the notifications to never miss an episode!

Colleen, Jimbo, and Duncan are back, this time joined by Noah Smith of Noahpinion. While fellow energy nerds might know Noah for his posts Don't be a doomer, Why I'm so excited about solar and batteries, or Battery-powered appliances!, his reach goes well beyond our small corner of the world. Noah's an economist and techno-optimist who engages in a wide variety of topics, from globalization, to NIMBYism, and wokeness. We had a great time with Noah and discussed all sorts of fun stuff. The conversation also delivered gems such as “the demand for culture war is highly inelastic”, “doomerism is a function of the clout-matrix”, and “ESG was a zero-interest rate phenomenon”.We hope you enjoy the episode!Timestamps:* (4:20) Discussing the merits of domesticated rabbits and the morality of eating them.* (9:59) What type of sci-fi Noah would write, and why it would be solarpunk, and another mention of our eco-rave obsession.* (12:52) Noah's hottest energy take, why are so many libertarians nuclear-stans, is distributed solar inherently expensive? * (22:14) Renewable energy narratives and counternarratives* (28:13) Is there a path to nuclear at scale?* (33:24) Noah's take on who blew up Nord Stream.* (37:20) Energy costs' role in the great stagnation starting in 1973, how that drove energy efficiency, industrial off-shoring and focus on low-energy economic activities, expensive energy → going nimby and inequality.* (52:56) Noah's interest in battery-integrated devices, Sam D'Amico = Kaylee from Firefly, Noah gets DER-pilled.* (68:00) Gas stove debates, “the demand for culture war is highly inelastic”, when are bans appropriate, DM Colleen with gas stoves studies, Gell-Mann Amnesia* (80:23) “Doomerism is a function of the clout-matrix.”* (91:32) Noah's the Energy Czar of America for 1 day.* (93:55) Dope or Nope, “ESG is a zero-interest rate phenomenon”, Noah's coming to our eco-rave.* (98:25) Bunny mischief, big shouts, qualified shouts, medium shouts, housing is for rabbits. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit dertaskforcenews.substack.com/subscribe

The “Chinese spy balloon” has dominated news for the past few weeks and thus Allan and Darren feel compelled to open the episode with their views. FM Penny Wong's speech in the UK sparked controversy for her comments on colonial history, or did it? Meanwhile, a successful 2+2 with France highlighted how far the relationship has come since a low point in late 2020. DM Richard Marles spoke to parliament on the question of sovereignty and defence capabilities, while International Development Minister Pat Conroy wants to see more development specialists in leadership roles at DFAT. We thank Walter Colnaghi for research and audio editing and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links “Chinese balloon part of vast aerial surveillance program, U.S. says”, Washington Post, 7 February 2023: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/02/07/china-spy-balloon-intelligence/ Penny Wong, “TV interview with Michael Rowland, ABC News Breakfast”, 6 February 2023: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/transcript/tv-interview-michael-rowland-abc-news-breakfast Penny Wong, “An enduring partnership in an era of change”, Speech, Centre for Grand Strategy, King's College, London, 31 January 2023: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/speech/enduring-partnership-era-change Hans van Leeuwen, “Why Wong got a walloping in Britain this week”, Australian Financial Review, 3 February 2023: https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/why-penny-got-a-pounding-in-britain-this-week-20230203-p5chne Richard Marles, “Securing Australia's Sovereignty”, Statement to Parliament, 9 February 2023: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/statements/2023-02-09/securing-australias-sovereignty Matthew Knot, “‘AUKUS will enhance sovereignty': Marles dismisses Keating, Turnbull concerns”, Sydney Morning Herald, 8 February 2023: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/aukus-will-enhance-sovereignty-marles-dismisses-keating-turnbull-concerns-20230208-p5cj1q.html   Stephen Dziedzic, “International Development Minister Pat Conroy wants AusAID to regain prominence within DFAT”, ABC News, 9 February 2023: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-09/pat-conroy-dfat-wants-development-specialists-ausaid-/101951876 “Anthony Albanese on navigating an insecure world”, Guardian Australia, Australian Politics Podcast, 4 February 2023: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2023/feb/04/anthony-albanese-on-navigating-an-insecure-world (Podcast Transcript: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/podcast-interview-guardian-australia-politics-podcast ) Annie Ernaux, “The years” (book): https://www.penguin.com.au/books/the-years-9781609807870 Jim Chalmers, “Capitalism after the crisis”, The Monthly, February 2023: https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2023/february/jim-chalmers/capitalism-after-crises#mtr Noah Smith, “Vertical communities”, Noahpinion (substack), 27 January 2023: https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/vertical-communities

Noah Smith is a former columnist for Bloomberg and is now a popular writer at his own Noahpinion Substack. In this bonus segment from the previous conversation, Noah rejoins the podcast to talk about the nuts and bolts of macroeconomic modeling. Specifically, David and Noah discuss why macroeconomics is still in its infancy, how we can improve macro modeling moving forward, how to spot “nutty” macroeconomic theories, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Noah's Substack: Noahpinion Noah's Bloomberg archive Noah's Twitter: @Noahpinion    David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *Macroeconomics is Still in Its Infancy* by Noah Smith   *Nutty Macroeconomic Theories Will Ruin Your Country's Economy* by Noah Smith

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: How VCs can avoid being tricked by obvious frauds: Rohit Krishnan on Noahpinion (linkpost), published by HaydnBelfield on November 27, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum. Rohit Krishnan is a former hedge fund manager. Both he and Noah Smith are now mainly-economics commentators, and have been good guides to the FTX crash on Twitter. I found this short piece very helpful in getting a sense of how big the screw-up was by the investors in FTX. It opens like this: We live in the golden age of technology fraud. When Theranos exploded, there was much hemming and hawing amongst the investing circles, mostly to note that the smart money on Sand Hill Road were not amongst those who lost their shirts. When WeWork put out its absolute sham of an IPO prospectus before getting cut by 80%, most folks said hey, it's only the vision fund that was lacking vision. But now there's a third head on that mountain, and it's the biggest. Theranos only burned $700 million of investors' money. Neumann at WeWork supposedly burned around $4 Billion, but that was mostly from Softbank. FTX puts these to shame, incinerating at least $2 Billion of investors' money and another $6-8 Billion of customers' money in mere hours. Soon to be legendary, worse than Enron and faster than Lehman, there is the singular fraud of FTX and its CEO Sam Bankman-Fried. But unlike those other crashes, this seems like it might take down multiple other firms, and create a 2008 moment for crypto, which used to be a $2 Trillion asset class. More importantly, to figure out how we can stop something like this from happening. Not fraud, since that's part of the human OS, but at least having the smartest money around the table getting bamboozled by tousled hair and cargo shorts. The part that I found the most illuminating was this section on 'Dumb Enron' and some of the specific mistakes made by big investors like Temasek and Sequoia. I. The problem: this is Dumb Enron Temasek, not known to be a gunslinger in the venture world, released a statement after they lost $275 million with FTX. It's carefully written and well worded, and is rather circumspect about what actually went wrong. They mention how their exposure was tiny (0.09% of AUM) and that they did extensive due diligence which took approximately 8 months, audited financial statements, and undertook regulatory risk assessments. But the most interesting part is here: As we only had a ~1% stake in FTX, we did not have a board seat. However, we take corporate governance seriously, engage the boards and management of our investee companies regularly and hold them accountable for the activities of their companies. Sequoia, when it lost $214 million across a couple of funds, also mentioned in their letter to LPs they did “extensive research and thorough due diligence”. A week later they apologized to the LPs on a call and said they'll do better, by maybe using the Big 4 to audit all startups. I suspect this is hyperbole because otherwise this is medicine sillier than the disease. These are not isolated errors in judgement though. The list of investors in FTX is a who's who of the investing world - Sequoia, Paradigm, Thoma Bravo, Multicoin, Softbank, Temasek, Lux, Insight, Tiger Global. Doug Leone made the reasonable point that I made above, that VCs don't really do forensic accounting. They got some audited financials, and it looked good, but it's a snapshot at the end of a quarter, so why would they know shenanigans had taken place! But honestly, if VCs had been snookered by Theranos, that would make more sense. Like what do VCs know about how much blood is needed to test something? Sure it doesn't quite sound right (100s of tests from a single drop of blood!) and there were people saying this is impossible, but they say that kind of thing about everything! And Holmes' pro...

✨ DEBRIEF | Unpacking the Episode: https://shows.banklesshq.com/p/debrief-noah  ----- Noah Smith is a writer economist, with fiercely independent takes that he articulates with precision and clarity. We see him as a knowledgable crypto outsider, which is a rare trait we've seen throughout the posts on his blog, Noahpinion. In today's episode, we cover geopolitics in broad strokes—Noah thinks we're already at war in the form of an economic showdown between the New Allies and New Axis. We also turn to crypto, where Noah gives his bull case while also addressing some misconceptions he sees in the crypto community. The sum of all of this is an episode title we thought we'd never see on Bankless—The Future is Fiat. ------

Economics bloggers and founder of the Noahpinion substack, Noah Smith, joins us to discuss what the issues the progressives are right about (even if their solutions are crazy). There is also a deep discussion on pets and street-smart rats.Support the show

We speak today with Bloomberg Economics columnist Noah Smith. Are we in a recession? Are we in store for an actual shooting war with China? Is bitcoin due for one more big pump? Come for all of that, and stick around for Chris and I to hit some stories that fell through the cracks this week, like Google's ad campaign against iMessage.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

"I think there are some important economic errors in the stories I see people telling about crypto, on Twitter and elsewhere — errors that have important implications for how we should think about the value of Bitcoin and other blockchain assets." - Noahpinion Unfortunately I think there are quite the few economic errors in Noahpinion's article titled, "Economic misconceptions of the crypto world." While he may actually have some fundamental points to add around much of the "crypto" space and their failure to understand what creates value, I think it shows Noahpinion's own misconceptions when he incorrectly applies some of the common crypto fallacies to Bitcoin, without understanding the deeper arguments, behind the more popular, & simplistic taglines that make their way across the social landscape. So in the most Guy Rant filled episode I've done in ages, we dive into the Misconceptions in Noahpinion's Crypto Misconceptions. Why savers aren't rent seekers, but money printers are rent seekers of the worst magnitude. Pieces mentioned in the article for further reading or listening: The Yield From Money Held, Reconsidered: https://bitcoinaudible.com/the-yield-from-money-held-reconsidered/ The 7th Property (Eric Yakes): https://www.amazon.com/7th-Property-Bitcoin-Monetary-Revolution/dp/0578902621 First Impressions of Web3: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7D4UD3n3H2mflqkVNnVczj?si=10ccd7de3c7a4e85 Check out our amazing sponsors and the products that Guy uses most in the space: • Dive into the Bitcoin only wallet, the cypherpunk calculator, and a company that has built secure Bitcoin products for nearly a decade. Code BITCOINAUDIBLE gets 5% off everything in the store! Coinkite.com • The best place to onboard a true Bitcoiner - Stack sats automatically, withdraw automatically, and learn or get help from the best team of Bitcoiners out there with Swan Bitcoin. (swanbitcoin.com/guy) • Gets sats back every time you dump fiat at a store, to pay your bills, everything in your fiat life pays you sats with the Fold Debit Card and FoldApp. 20% OFF with code BITCOINAUDIBLE (guyswann.com/fold) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

"I think there are some important economic errors in the stories I see people telling about crypto, on Twitter and elsewhere — errors that have important implications for how we should think about the value of Bitcoin and other blockchain assets." - Noahpinion Unfortunately I think there are quite the few economic errors in Noahpinion's article titled, "Economic misconceptions of the crypto world." While he may actually have some fundamental points to add around much of the "crypto" space and their failure to understand what creates value, I think it shows Noahpinion's own misconceptions when he incorrectly applies some of the common crypto fallacies to Bitcoin, without understanding the deeper arguments, behind the more popular, & simplistic taglines that make their way across the social landscape. So in the most Guy Rant filled episode I've done in ages, we dive into the Misconceptions in Noahpinion's Crypto Misconceptions. Why savers aren't rent seekers, but money printers are rent seekers of the worst magnitude. Pieces mentioned in the article for further reading or listening: The Yield From Money Held, Reconsidered: https://bitcoinaudible.com/the-yield-from-money-held-reconsidered/ The 7th Property (Eric Yakes): https://www.amazon.com/7th-Property-Bitcoin-Monetary-Revolution/dp/0578902621 First Impressions of Web3: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7D4UD3n3H2mflqkVNnVczj?si=10ccd7de3c7a4e85 Check out our amazing sponsors and the products that Guy uses most in the space: • Dive into the Bitcoin only wallet, the cypherpunk calculator, and a company that has built secure Bitcoin products for nearly a decade. Code BITCOINAUDIBLE gets 5% off everything in the store! Coinkite.com • The best place to onboard a true Bitcoiner - Stack sats automatically, withdraw automatically, and learn or get help from the best team of Bitcoiners out there with Swan Bitcoin. (swanbitcoin.com/guy) • Gets sats back every time you dump fiat at a store, to pay your bills, everything in your fiat life pays you sats with the Fold Debit Card and FoldApp. 20% OFF with code BITCOINAUDIBLE (guyswann.com/fold) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/bitcoinaudible/message

Skippy quizzes Doogles on the most beer guzzling US states. Doogles reviews topics covered in the May 2022 Sequoia Capital deck "Adapting to Endure" on the state of things. Skippy rants about Acorns, and wonders what would happen if Powell just raised rates 3% all at once. Doogles highlights investing red flags covered in the Noahpinion piece "BS in Investing". The episode wraps with a list of countries most likely to default and a heap of listener mail on Peloton, Factfulness, Celsius and Stripe. Join the https://skippydoogles.supercast.com/ (Skippy and Doogles fan club). You can also get more details about the show at http://skippydoogles.com/ (skippydoogles.com), show notes on https://skippydoogles.substack.com/ (our Substack), and send comments or questions to skippydoogles@gmail.com.

0:00 Bestie open: Sacks' shopping spree 2:15 Macro outlook: jobs, consumer sentiment, housing, inflation, finding a bottom 39:21 Turkish government finds ~694 million mt of rare earth reserves & EU reclassifies nuclear & natural gas as "green" 48:58 Dutch farmers protests: root causes, how to move forward with smarter legislation 1:09:39 Biden's decline, Bezos responds to Biden's tweet on bringing gas prices down Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/06/jolts-job-openings-may-2022-.html https://www.bls.gov/charts/job-openings-and-labor-turnover/hire-seps-rates.htm https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-job-openings-dip-to-11-3-million-but-labor-market-still-historically-strong-11657122659 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-06/fed-sees-more-restrictive-rates-possible-if-inflation-persists https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/12/net-international-migration-at-lowest-levels-in-decades.html https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cb-consumer-confidence-48 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-confidence-conference-board-june-2022-143536146.html https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/data/existing-home-sales#chart-existing-home-sales-vs-30yr-rate https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-sentiment-drops-to-record-low-as-inflation-worries-grip-u-s-11656079725 https://www.forbes.com/sites/darreonnadavis/2022/07/05/88-of-americans-say-us-is-on-wrong-track/ https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3525909-56-percent-in-new-poll-believe-us-is-in-recession/ https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1544057786065092609 https://news.metal.com/newscontent/101881567/Turkey-Discovers-694-million-mt-of-Rare-Earth-Element-Reserves-with-Infrastructure-Construction-Starting-This-Year/ https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/eu-parliament-vote-green-gas-nuclear-rules-2022-07-06/ https://twitter.com/GretaThunberg/status/1544380486654590983 https://mobile.twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1544573867804348416 https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/eu-parliament-vote-green-gas-nuclear-rules-2022-07-06/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-01/jpmorgan-sees-stratospheric-380-oil-on-worst-case-russian-cut https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/explainer-dutch-farmers-protesting-emissions-85848026 https://www.amazon.com/The-Alchemy-of-Air-Thomas-Hager-audiobook/dp/B0046Y0BP0/ref=sr_1_1 https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_070522/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-22/eurizon-fund-holds-unloved-assets-to-beat-peers-in-esg-market https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/07/uk-boris-johnson-resignation/ https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1543263229006254080 https://twitter.com/JeffBezos/status/1543409762867494912 https://twitter.com/JeffBezos/status/1525309091970699265 https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1544370315379109888

The question everybody's asking on cable news right now is whether we're in a recession. I think there's an even more important question to ask: Are we at peak inflation? If inflation U-turns, it means the Fed won't have to keep jacking up interest rates, won't have to keep destroying demand, and won't have to indefinitely pump the U.S. economy with tranquilizing drugs to break the fever. I believe peak inflation is right here, right now. In retail, Target and Gap are slashing prices on inventory. In the car market, used car sales are falling. In electronics, the microchip shortage looks like it's easing. In international shipping, freight rates across the Pacific are declining. And most importantly, the price of oil, metals, wheat, and corn are all falling. Oil prices are falling really, really fast—and that tends to mean that gas prices will follow. Today's guest is Noah Smith, the economic writer and author of the newsletter Noahpinion. We talk about the great disinflation, where it's happening, why it's happening, what it means for the future of the U.S. economy and politics. This episode was in high demand in our mailbox. And as always, keep it coming. Send your feedback and episode ideas to PlainEnglish@Spotify.com. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Noah Smith Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This week's retirement reading is from Noahpinion titled, Where does the wealth go when asset prices go down? Listen in as Casey Weade breaks down the article and shares what he thinks! Today's episode can also be accessed by visiting RetireWithPurpose.com/301.  Show Notes: RetireWithPurpose.com/301 Rate & Review the Podcast: RetireWithPurpose.com/review Sign Up to Casey's Weekend Reading Email! Sifting through the copious amount of conflicting financial advice and retirement information can be daunting - but it doesn't have to be! Each week, Casey makes it super easy. He hand-picks 4 of the most important articles you need to read, that are beneficial to you whether you're at, near, or in retirement! If you want them sent straight to your inbox, sign up by visiting RetireWithPurpose.com/weekend-reading

This year the S&P 500 has fallen over 23%. With the benefit of hindsight, what were the clues that we had reached the top at the start of 2022? And what could indicate the market has now reached a bottom and is about to resume its upward drift? Accepted wisdom says that what matters is “time in the market, not timing the market.” Is this always true? And how does it affect how we invest? And in today's Dumb Question of the Week, we ask "When stock prices fall, where does the money go?" Selected links https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/where-does-the-wealth-go-when-asset (Where does the wealth go when asset prices go down? (Noahpinion)) https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php (The Buffett Indicator) Get in touch

Things are moving very, very fast in Vladimir Putin's war against Ukraine—and in the global response to punish Russia. The U.S. and Europe are not engaged in a literal war against Putin, and hopefully nothing like that will come to pass. But this weekend, they announced a series of unprecedented sanctions and economic penalties that could destroy the Russian economy. These policies are designed to get Putin to end the war before he conquers Ukraine. But they could crash the Russian economy and trigger more global crises. To explain the sanctions, discuss their pluses and minuses, and predict their ripple effects, Derek is joined by Noah Smith, author of the newsletter Noahpinion, and Nicolas Véron, a French economist and senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and the European think tank Bruegel. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Noah Smith and Nicolas Véron Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Allan and Darren venture far outside their comfort zones this week to give some thoughts on the escalating crisis between Russia, Ukraine and NATO. This is an interesting and important issue because it brings together so many of the central questions in international relations. These include: the use of military coercion and other forms of deterrence; the behaviour of great powers, the role of diplomacy and signalling; the links between strategic and economic interests; the politics of the transatlantic relationship; the role of alliances; and the practical meaning of norms like ‘sovereignty' and ‘self-determination'. While not all of these can be covered in depth in a single episode, they all inform Allan and Darren as they offer initial opinions of the strategic context and stakes involved. These events are important to Australia because of their potential impact on the international order and, in particular, America's role in it. Along the way, the discussion covers the specific phenomenon of “spheres of influence”, the geoeconomic dimensions, and whether there is any scope at all for for multilateral organisations to contribute. The episode finishes by looking at how the Australian government has responded and thinking about what Beijing's perspective might be.   Relevant links Adam Tooze, “Putin's challenge to western hegemony – the 2022 edition”, Chartbook newsletter #68, 12 January 2022: https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-68-putins-challenge-to Ross Douthat, “How to retreat from Ukraine”, New York Times, 22 January 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/22/opinion/russia-ukraine-us-nato.html Francis Fukuyama, “Why Ukraine matters”, American Purpose, 24 January 2022: https://www.americanpurpose.com/blog/fukuyama/why-ukraine-matters/ Rob Lee, “Moscow's compellence strategy”, Foreign Policy Research Institute, 18 January 2022: https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/01/moscows-compellence-strategy/ Greg Earl, “Bitcoin vs the IMF, and other great expectations”, Lowy Interpreter, 27 January 2022: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/bitcoin-vs-imf-and-other-great-expectations Plain English podcast, “The Biggest Losers of the Streaming Wars: ESPN, Movie Theatres, Peacock, and More”, 18 January 2022: https://www.theringer.com/2022/1/18/22888915/the-biggest-losers-of-the-streaming-wars-espn-movie-theaters-peacock-and-more   (Other interesting readings, in chronological order) Tyler Cowen, “What Will Putin Do Next? Game Theory Offers Some Clues”, Bloomberg, 19 January 2022: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-01-19/what-will-putin-do-next-time-for-some-game-theory “What would a Ukraine conflict look like” Rachman Review Podcast, 20 January 2022: https://overcast.fm/+2IlRysJbY Edward Fishman and Chris Miller, “The Russia Sanctions That Could Actually Stop Putin”, Politico, 21 January 2022: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/01/21/russia-sanctions-stop-putin-energy-markets-us-invasion-527524 Noah Smith, “Why is Ukraine such an economic failure”, Noahpinion newsletter, 23 January 2022: https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-is-ukraine-such-an-economic-failure Fiona Hill, “Putin Has the U.S. Right Where He Wants It”, New York Times, 24 January 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/24/opinion/russia-ukraine-putin-biden.html?referringSource=articleShare Michael Kofman, “Putin's wager in Russia's standoff with the west”, War on the Rocks, 24 January 2022: https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/putins-wager-in-russias-standoff-with-the-west/ Daniel Drezner, “On deterring Russia”, Washington Post, 26 January 2022: https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/01/26/deterring-russia/ Center for Defense Strategies, “How likely is large-scale war in Ukraine?”, The Kyiv Independent, 29 January 2022: https://kyivindependent.com/national/center-for-defense-strategies-how-probable-is-large-scale-war-in-ukraine-analysis/ Kyle Wilson, “Putin's NATO power play stirs disquiet among Russia's security elite”, ASPI Strategist, 29 January 2022: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/putins-nato-power-play-stirs-disquiet-among-russias-security-elite/

Is the DOJ probing Tether for bank fraud? When might FaceID come to the Mac? What do leaked photos tell us about the next Surface Duo? And I will spend the entire second half of the show trying my best to explain the seeming tech apocalypse happening in China right now.Sponsors:KiwiCo.com/ride for first month freeSetApp.comLinks:Tether Executives Said to Face Criminal Probe Into Bank Fraud (Bloomberg)Leaders in Cryptocurrency Industry Move to Curb the Highest-Risk Trades (NYTimes)Gurman: Face ID on the Mac Coming Within a 'Couple of Years' (MacRumors)Leaked Surface Duo 2 photos reveal new triple camera system (The Verge)China Bans For-Profit School Tutoring in Sweeping Overhaul (Bloomberg)China's education sector crackdown hits foreign investors (Financial Times)Why is China smashing its tech industry? (Noahpinion.substack.com)See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Today's shifting economic and political landscape is reshaping the American labor market. But amid all of the change is an opportunity to create a better workforce for the future. What are the forces at play in our current labor market? How will these changes impact employees in the long term? What role should leaders play in creating a workforce that puts its people first? This week, Host Gautam Mukunda speaks with two experts about the new administration's economic policy agenda. Noah Smith has a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Michigan, taught finance at Stony Brook University, writes a column on economics for Bloomberg, and a substack newsletter, Noahpinion. Dr. Betsey Stevenson is a Professor of Public Policy and Economics at the University of Michigan, was a member of President Obama's Economic Advisors, and hosts the think tank podcast Think Like an Economist. “Necessity is the mother of invention, to say that, you know what, we've had so many bad shocks by this point that we're just going to have to be bold and go for broke... We're going to have to go into the foreign markets and compete on the international stage. We're going to have to train people as if there's a future. We're going to have to take big risks because our backs are to the wall after these two decades of disasters.” — Noah Smith “We look for the good in everyone in our family when we pull together. We need to do the same thing in our country. We need to be loyal to everyone in our country. We need to look for the good in everyone in our country, and we need to pull together.” — Betsey Stevenson   Follow @GMukunda on Twitter or email us at WorldReimagined@nasdaq.com   Books Referenced: The Human Side of Enterprise, by Douglas McGregor The Blueprint: 6 Practical Steps to Lift Your Leadership to New Heights, by Douglas Conant   Guest Info: Noah Smith is a writer for Bloomberg Opinion and writes a Substack newsletter called Noahpinion. He did his economics Ph.D. at the University of Michigan and worked as a finance professor at SUNY Stony Brook. He has also lived in Japan for several years. He has two very chubby, fluffy rabbits.   Dr. Betsey Stevenson is a professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan. She is also a faculty research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a visiting associate professor of economics at the University of Sydney, a research fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research, a fellow of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research in Munich, and serves on the executive committee of the American Economic Association. She served as a member of the Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2015 where she advised President Obama on social policy, labor market, and trade issues. She served as the chief economist of the U.S. Department of Labor from 2010 to 2011, advising the Secretary of Labor on labor policy and participating as the secretary's deputy to the White House economic team.

Bloomberg Opinion Columnist & Creator of the Noahpinion blog/newsletter Interview starts at 11:40 and ends at 56:07 Links Note: I will be discussing my interview with Noah Smith Saturday February 20, 2021 at 4 pm ET on Clubhouse. If you are a member of Clubhouse, please click here to join me. I had originally planned the Clubhouse room for 1 p.m. but now realize that's pretty early for a Saturday morning, especially on the West Coast.  Amazon's Day 1 Editions products “What's Amazon's Secret?” by Jonathan A. Knee at The New York Times - February 13, 2021 Noah Smith's Noahpinion blog and newsletter Noah Smith on Twitter “It's not Cancel Culture, it's Cancel Technology” by Noah Smith at Noahpinion - February 16, 2021 (behind paywall) Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality blog Gamergate controversy - Wikipedia “Here's what you need to know about Clubhouse, the invite-only social app” by Tim Marcin at Mashable - January 4, 2021 “Fretting About Inflation May Be Just the Cure We Need” by Noah Smith at Bloomberg Opinion - February 18, 2021 Upcoming Guests Next week: Dean Koontz, author of The Other Emily, a novel available for pre-order with release on March 23, 021 Friday, March 3: C J Box, author of Dark Sky, Book 21 in the Joe Pickett series, available for pre-order with release March 2, 2021 Morning Journal flash briefing for Alexa If you'd like brief daily updates on technology, books, marriage, and puppies, you can follow along with my Morning Journal flash briefing. From your Echo device, just say, “Alexa, enable Morning Journal.” Then each morning say, “Alexa, what's my flash briefing?” I post a five-minute audio journal each day except Sunday, usually by 8:00 am Eastern Time.  The Kindle Chronicles is now available at Audible Podcasts. The only thing missing are ratings! If you have time, please consider leaving one in order to help others learn about the show.  Right-click here and then click "Save Link As..." to download the audio to your computer, phone, or MP3 player.

If you want the single best person in economics twitter to follow, it's Noah Smith, Bloomberg's Economics Opinion Columnist. If you want to him, its @noahpinion, by the way. If you want a great substack to sign up to, try noahpinion.substack.com… the free article this week is called Triumph of the HODler's… I hope I remember to link to it in the show notes. It's the best summation I've read of what's going on with Bitcoin at the moment. But also, as you'll hear, he has a great new podcast with another economist I respect, Brad Delong. Noah is just a smart, smart guy. If you want a smart economics angle to anything happening in the world right now, he's just the best. Noah and I have been friendly on Twitter over the years, occasionally exchanging DMs about obscure details about the Holy Roman Empire, but this is the first time I “met” him if you will. It's been a while since I was sort of starstruck to interview someone, but here you go. The great Noah Smith…Sponsors:AirMedCareNetwork.com/tech offer code TECHSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.