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This week, we cover the historic end of U.S. penny production resulting from high manufacturing costs and obsolescence. Market updates focused on lingering uncertainty due to delayed economic data from the recent government shutdown, while Federal Reserve policy remains unclear, with rate cuts seen as a toss up ahead of December's meeting. With holiday shopping well underway, we discuss consumer trends, noting resilience despite crosscurrents like tariffs and inflation, with strong performance from major retailers and signs of a “K-shaped” economy. Overall, our current outlook suggests cautious optimism for 2026, supported by fiscal and monetary tailwinds.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy, Key Wealth,George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer, Key WealthRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income, Key WealthBradley Thomas, Managing Director of Equity Research, KeyBanc Capital Markets 00:23 –The U.S. Mint has stopped producing pennies after 232 years due to high manufacturing costs, sparking discussion on its economic implications and impact on transactions.02:03 –The recent and historic 43-day government shutdown has finally ended. We discuss its impact, and the resulting delays in critical economic reports like unemployment claims, CPI, and retail sales, and its role in creating uncertainty across markets.06:18 – We highlight uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy and changes, potential December rate cuts, the lack of clarity due to missing data, and upcoming leadership turnover, including the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael Bostic's planned retirement in February and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair ending in 2026.11:20 – Special guest Brad Thomas, Managing Director of Equity Research with KeyBanc Capital Markets, joins the podcast this week to discuss consumer resilience amid crosscurrents such as tariffs and inflation, noting strong performance from major retailers, bifurcation between affluent and lower-income consumers, and shifts in spending patterns toward home-related goods.16:09 –Our experts examine how tariff increases could affect holiday shopping, with potential price pressures in categories like toys, and how retailers are managing these challenges.19:02 –Rising delinquencies in credit cards and loans are rising concerns for lower-income consumers, while overall outlook remains cautiously optimistic thanks to anticipated fiscal and monetary stimulus supporting spending and investment opportunities.  Additional ResourcesRead: Higher Education Changes in Recent YearsPrepare: Top 10 2025 Year-End Planning Strategies for Business Owners Key QuestionsSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

This week, we explore the economic impact of the ongoing government shutdown, now in its 38th day, and its effect on labor market data and investor sentiment. Our experts discuss alternative employment indicators, strong Q3 earnings, and the influence of AI on market performance. They also examine the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on inflation and interest rate cuts amid data uncertainty. Finally, the conversation touches on the Supreme Court's review of Trump-era tariffs and its potential implications for market volatility. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyCynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio ManagementRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 02:09 – We analyze available data to fill in the gaps left by unpublished reports due to the ongoing government shutdown. We discuss labor statistics around unemployment, layoffs and job growth and vacancies.04:55 – The prolonged shutdown is dampening sentiment and creating uncertainty due to missing federal economic data.07:47 – In equities, we highlight upward momentum in the stock market amid strong earnings reports, while cautioning about speculative froth and a market pullback.11:45 – We explain the Fed's dual mandate, inflation concerns, and how mixed signals are affecting bond yields and rate cut expectations.16:31 – We consider the legal review of Trump-era tariffs and how a ruling could impact Treasury issuance and market volatility.  Additional ResourcesKey QuestionsSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

Cynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management, joins the podcast to deliver a report on this week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting; be sure to read her companion piece, “The Gentle Cut: Easing Without Euphoria” on our Weekly Investment Brief feed. Our discussion tracks how the equity and bond markets behaved leading up to, and following, the meeting, and what to expect going forward. We also touch on this week's earnings reports from several big tech companies, and what positive trade talks between the United States and China might mean for the future. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyCynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio ManagementRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 01:30 – Expected reports on initial unemployment claims, GDP, and inflation were not published this week due to the ongoing government shutdown, which is on track to be the longest in history once it surpasses the 2018 record of 34 days.03:20 – Coverage of this week's FOMC meeting, including the 25 basis point cut to the federal funds rate, two diametric dissents, the themes and opinions driving that decision, and Chair Powell's warning that another rate cut in December is far from guaranteed as we see signs of a weakening labor market, elevated inflation, and a lack of data to make informed decisions due to the government shutdown.05:43 – In reaction to the FOMC meeting and Powell's assertion that a December rate cut is less likely than previously expected, the markets experienced a bit of a reversal of recent gains that were driven by that expectation.07:43 – We discuss the five candidates that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent revealed this week. They include three current and former Fed Governors, the current Director of the National Economic Council, and a BlackRock executive.10:03 – Q3 earnings reports continue to send the stock market higher. The reports from this week's big companies were Amazon and Alphabet, which were both positive, Apple, which underwhelming but not bad, and Meta and Microsoft, which were both somewhat negative. 12:25 – Positive news from trade talks between the United States and China might reduce the elevated sentiment of geopolitical risk that hit the markets in the first few months of the year on tariff threats, and which has been a question mark ever since.14:58 – The fixed income market has seen some widening in credit spreads following the FOMC meeting, but generally positive credit conditions and future corporate bond issuance herald a robust November. Additional ResourcesRead: The Gentle Cut: Easing Without Euphoria – 10/29/2025 FOMC UpdateAsk: Key Questions: Active ETFs or Mutual Funds: Which Belongs in Your Portfolio?  Key QuestionsSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

Amid the ongoing government shutdown, we look at alternate sources of data to draw a picture of what's happening with inflation, the labor market, and home sales. Our experts provide insights on the market's reaction to these reports, the anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week, and the performance of different sectors and asset classes. We also touch on some unusual market dynamics, with low-quality and high-beta stocks outperforming higher-quality companies. Finally, we talk sandwiches in celebration of National Bologna Day. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerStephen Hoedt, Head of EquitiesRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income 02:06 – We highlight three key reports from the week: state-level initial weekly unemployment claims suggest no cause for concern, existing home sales are up slightly, and—despite the government shutdown—the Bureau of Labor Statistics was allowed to compile and release a mixed but overall favorable Consumer Price Index report.06:00 – Corporations seem to be navigating increased costs due to tariffs by cutting their labor force.08:50 – The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at next week's FOMC meeting, with many expecting another 25 basis point cut in December, and several more next year. 10:44 – October continues to be a rally month for the bond market thanks to low market volatility, tight credit spreads, and abundant liquidity.12:59 – Equities continued to climb and set all-time highs as third quarter earnings season continues, with a spotlight on reports from Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta next week.15:53 – We discuss differences in quality within the equities and bond markets, and posit an apparent shift in principles and heuristics in equities between the pre- and post-pandemic periods. Additional ResourcesRead: Key Questions: Should Investors Get on Board With the Reshoring of American Manufacturing? Weekly Investment BriefKey QuestionsSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterFollow us on LinkedIn

The ongoing government shutdown delayed updates of the Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, weekly unemployment claims, and retail sales. Still, there was plenty to cover from this week, including the potential impact on the banking sector amid emerging credit concerns, the strength and state of the consumer, recent earnings reports, a dip in oil prices, and the outlook for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy for the remainder of the year and in 2026 once a new Chair is selected. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerStephen Hoedt, Head of EquitiesRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income 01:35 – The National Federation of Independent Business' Small Business Optimism Index for the month of September fell two points to 98.8, but remains above the historical average. Conversely, the Uncertainty Index rose to 100 – the fourth highest level in 51 years.02:21 – The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report showed little change in overall economic activity, with some districts reporting slight to modest growth and others noting slight softening.04:20 – The earnings reports that have been released thus far for the third quarter paint a favorable picture of a robust stock market, despite signs of softening consumer spending and an uptick in volatility and uncertainty.11:57 – Investors moved toward safe haven assets amid some overall economic softening and news of emerging credit risk.12:38 – Fed Chair Powell's recent comments point towards a move away from quantitative tightening, an end to the balance sheet runoff in the next few months, and likely two more rate cuts in 2025.15:31 – As the government shutdown continues to fuel confusion, volatility, and uncertainty, our advice to investors is to maintain a long-term perspective with a diversified portfolio and avoiding rash decisions based on dramatic news and short-term fluctuations. Additional ResourcesRead: Key Questions: What Does MAHA Mean for Healthcare and Consumer Staples Companies? Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

Speakers: Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities01:58 – Our team of experts discusses the impact of the government shutdown on economic data releases, inflation concerns, and labor market trends.04:35 –  Analysis of bond market movements, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and insights from recent FOMC minutes.08:24 – The panel examines high market valuations, the impact of “hopes and dreams,” and the effects of vendor financing and developments in the AI sector.13:34 –  Insights into gold's record highs, central bank buying, treasury market trends, and expectations for Q3 earnings season.Additional ResourcesRead: Key Questions: What Does MAHA Mean for Healthcare and Consumer Staples Companies? | Key Private BankRead: Key Questions: How Does AI Impact Corporate Companies and Fixed-Income Investors?New White Paper: An Introduction to Direct Indexing | Key Private Bank Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn251002-3563428

Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income 00:54 – We review the key economic data and market activity from the past week, including the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, the September ADP National Employment Report showing a significant decline in private sector employment, and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing and services PMI reports.02:45 – The current government shutdown prevented the release of data on weekly initial unemployment claims as well as reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics around new nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.03:23 – One side effect of the shutdown is that the integrity of the data that we did receive may be less reliable. However, the overall labor market is in a "low firing, low hiring" environment, with pockets of strength in consumer spending and AI infrastructure investment.05:36 – We discuss the history of government shutdowns and how the lengthier examples in recent years may be due to increasing partisanship, and what short- and long-term effects a shutdown may have on the labor force, the markets and the economy.09:39 – Treasuries rallied as investors sought safe-haven assets after the shutdown took effect. Attention then turned to the Fed to see whether their recently begun rate-cutting campaign will continue, as is expected at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting later this month.14:43 – Despite a year of atypical trends and behavior, this shutdown is expected to go as most past shutdowns have: volatility might jostle the equities and bond markets in the short term, but after the shutdown ends and the temperature goes back down, the markets tend to rebound and resolve at higher levels than prior to the shutdown. Additional ResourcesRead: Key Questions: How Does AI Impact Corporate Companies and Fixed-Income Investors? Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

Joel Redmond, Managing Director of Business Advisory Services at Key Private Bank, joins the podcast this week to provide some insights and advice for business owners. He also addresses recent legislation changes that might affect capital gains tax exclusions for certain C corporations. Brian and George break down the news and numbers of the week and discuss the overarching risk appetite of the economy, as evidenced by pockets of concentrated investment in certain sectors like AI. We also touch on the Federal Reserve, equities and fixed income, and the importance of a diversified portfolio. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerJoel Redmond, Managing Director of Business Advisory Services 02:10 – The initial unemployment claims, GDP, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data all showed the economy remains in a relatively strong position, with consumer spending being a key driver.06:00 –the concentration of growth in certain areas, such as AI, raises concerns about the economy's risk profile.09:16 – The economic data suggests the Federal Reserve may only implement one more interest rate cut this year, rather than the multiple cuts some had expected.11:27 – For business owners, especially in the lower middle-market range, the podcast highlights the importance of knowing the value of their business, having proper legal and organizational documentation in order, and having access to expert legal counsel when preparing for a business transition or sale.18:15 – The podcast also discusses a tax provision, Section 1202 of the tax code, that provides significant capital gains tax exclusions for owners of qualified small business stock, which was expanded under the recent "One Big Beautiful Bill" legislation. Additional ResourcesRead: Key Questions: How Does the Push to Digitize All Federal Payments To and From the Federal Government Impact You? Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn 

Cynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management, joins the podcast to deliver a report on this week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting; be sure to read her companion piece, “The Fed Cut Rates, But Didn't Cut Loose” on our Weekly Investment Brief feed. Our discussion tracks how the equity and bond markets behaved leading up to, and following, the meeting, and what we might expect in the future. We also step back in time to the mid-1990s to draw parallels to two things we're seeing today: a rate-cutting Fed amid a tech-driven bull market, and comparing Microsoft's investment in Apple back then to Nvidia's potential investment in Intel today. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyCynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio ManagementGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 01:51 – We report on the generally positive numbers across retail sales, industrial production, and weekly initial unemployment claims.03:47 – Coverage of this week's FOMC meeting, including the 25 basis point cut to the federal funds rate, the themes and opinions driving that decision, Chair Powell's press briefing, and the likelihood of further cuts this year.09:25 – Both the 2-year and the 10-year Treasury yields climbed steadily leading up to, and after, the FOMC meeting, signaling that buyers have not stepped in yet.12:42 – A historical lookback at the mid-1990s, when the Fed was cutting rates amid a stock market boom fueled by the emergent tech sector, in a parallel fashion to today's market and economic activity.14:59 – We discuss Nvidia's potential investment in Intel, and what this means for domestic and overseas investment and manufacturing. Additional ResourcesRead: The Fed Cuts Rates, But Didn't Cut Loose – 9/17/2025 FOMC UpdateAsk: What Are Nine Things to Watch as We Begin the Ninth Month of the Year? Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

In this week's episode, we break down the factors and trends shaping the economy, including new reports that shed some light on labor and inflation. Expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve at next week's Federal Open Market Committee Meeting (FOMC) appear to be the main driving force behind movements in fixed income and equities. Please join us on Thursday, September 18, where we'll sit down with experts in Artificial Intelligence during our National Call: AI: Everything You Are Afraid to Ask but Need to Know. And be sure to tune in again next week, where we'll recap the news from this highly-anticipated FOMC meeting, and anything else impacting the markets. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities02:16 – We consider a softening labor market as evidenced by an increase in weekly initial unemployment claims and the semi-annual update from the Bureau of Labor Statistics detailing a correction of over 900,000 fewer jobs in the 12-month period ending in March 2025 than was initially reported.03:42 – The Producer Price Index (PPI) data showed a slight decline, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicated higher-than-expected month-over-month and year-over-year inflation, driven mainly by food and shelter costs.04:48 – The Fed seems poised to resume interest rate cuts with next week's FOMC meeting, as fears of making a policy error dissipate as rising (but not accelerating) inflation and a cooling jobs market create an opportunistic environment for rate cutting.06:40 – Treasuries show demand and momentum ahead of the FOMC meeting, with the 2-Year Treasury yield hitting 3.55% and the 10-Year around 4.06%.11:04 – Equities buck the historical norm of taking a downturn this time of year, buoyed by expectations of rate cuts and record investments in tentpole industries like Artificial Intelligence in an apparently non-recessionary climate.14:08 – A brief look into what's happening with resilient crude oil prices and early stimulation in the housing market.16:11 – We revisit our predictions for 2025 that were made late last year, and gauge how accurate they have been thus far. Additional Resources9/18 Webinar: Key Wealth's National Call - AI: Everything You Are Afraid to Ask but Need to KnowKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

In this week's episode, we discuss the Beige Book Report, and three employment reports including fresh numbers from a weaker-than-expected report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). We also touch on the policies and politics bedeviling the Federal Reserve, and the likelihood of rate cuts later this month. As always, we analyze how all of these factors affect the equity and bond markets. Finally, happy National 401(k) Day! See today's resources below to help you educate and celebrate. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities01:45 – The four reports driving economic activity this week: the Beige Book report, initial unemployment claims, the Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, and the eagerly-expected BLS Employment Situation report. 05:21 – The weak BLS report further fuels expectations for a September rate cut, with the odds of bigger or more frequent cuts increasing.07:28 – A look into the economy's impact on the stock market, and vice versa, and the k-shaped economy of 401(k) haves and have-nots.09:19– Treasuries have rallied on the jobs report, with some calling it a “jobs recession.”11:20 – We discuss the goings-on at the Federal Reserve, including Stephen Miran's confirmation hearing for Fed Governor and Scott Bessent's alleged interviews for the next Fed Chair.14:11 – In the world of equities, cyclicals and small cap stocks are ascending as mega-cap tech stocks had a slower week.18:45 – Concluding thoughts on the still-present threat of tariffs impacting the economy, and what to do with your portfolio now.  National 401(k) Day ResourcesRetirement AdviceShould I Still Worry About Inflation's Impact on My Retirement Plan?The Key 401(k) Pooled Employer Plan Additional Resources9/18 Webinar: Key Wealth's National Call - AI: Everything You Are Afraid to Ask but Need to KnowKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn 

In this week's episode, we discuss the latest economic and market news, including updates on unemployment claims, GDP growth, and inflation data. Our experts provide their insights and analysis on the implications of these and other economic developments, particularly the potential impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. We also touch on the potential political challenges facing the Fed and questions about its independence and how that could affect the equity and bond markets. 01:59 – The three reports this week on initial unemployment claims, GDP, and consumer spending, are painting a mixed picture of the economy.04:49 – Nvidia's earnings report feels representative of the broader market; equities continued to climb this week, despite a sell off Friday morning and the potential for seasonal plateaus.06:15 – Turmoil at the Fed having minimal impact on equities, but the bond market appears much more susceptible as the yield curve steepens.08:29 – We ruminate on the implications for Fed independence, the rate environment, and overall economic and social implications of a change in the composition of the Fed Board of Governors.10:28 – Parallels may be seen between the current economic climate and the bubble of the late 1990s to mid 2000s.13:28 – Rate cuts are still likely at September's Federal Open Market Committee meeting.14:31 – Some advice on how to approach your portfolio in the midst of an uncertain economic and political climate.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities Additional ResourcesAttend: AI: Everything You Are Afraid to Ask but Need to Know.Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

In this week's episode, our experts review the now-stale minutes from July's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's new dovishness from the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, and what to look out for in the coming weeks as we near the end of a notable summer. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 02:30 – We highlight this week's economic releases: the Labor Department reports that weekly unemployment claims rose slightly but remained stable over the past 18 months, and the National Association of Realtors reports that existing home sales rose by 2% in July.03:43 – The July FOMC minutes were hawkish, and show Committee member concerns over tariff-driven inflation, elevated asset valuations, and that the current fed funds rate may not be far above neutral. The meeting pre-dated the weaker July employment report and subsequent shift in focus from inflation to the cooling jobs market.04:52 – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell appears to pivot towards a dovish stance and emphasizing the downside risks to the labor market at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium; expectations of a rate-cutting cycle beginning in September shot up and Treasury yields dropped sharply in response.07:47 – Political turmoil continues to put pressure on the Federal Reserve on allegations of mortgage fraud against Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who has been pressured to resign or face removal by President Trump. 12:45 – We discuss the apparent bifurcation in the economy, with weakness in consumer spending offset by strength in business investment, particularly in data centers and artificial intelligence.16:46 – We anticipate how the market might react to an upcoming earnings report from Nvidia and news that the federal government is considering taking ownership positions in tech stocks. Additional ResourcesRead: Key Questions: How Does Key Wealth Define Quality Within Our Internally Managed Equity Strategies?Watch: Planning Implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) ActKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

This week was lighter on economic news and reporting—certainly when compared to the previous two action-packed weeks—so we're shaking things up for this episode. Each expert brings to the table a news item that caught his eye this week, and one topic that might not be receiving enough attention. Topics include skyrocketing investment into artificial intelligence, the fractures at the Federal Reserve (see Additional Resources below for a link to past guest Cynthia Honcharenko's take on the interesting dynamics taking place at the Fed), turmoil in the gold market, the changing demographics of the labor market amid evolving ways and means of working, and more. Wishing a happy International Beer Day and National Pickleball Day to those who celebrate; maybe not at the same time. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities02:23 – The ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index—a measure of the health of the U.S. services sector—dipped to 50.1 in July, down from June's 50.8. 02:42 – Initial unemployment claims for the week ending August 2 were up 7,000 claims from the previous week, for a total of 226,000 initial claims.03:32 – Investment in AI technologies exceeded $150 billion in the first half of the year, which may contribute to the increasing productivity in the workforce as measured by recent average revenue per employee figures.05:52 – The Fed continues to fracture amid a surprise appointment of a temporary Fed governor to fill a recently-vacated seat. 07:28 – The ups and downs of Trump's order to allow private equity investment in 401 (k) retirement plans.08:40 – China is mentioned less in the news these days, but that doesn't mean nothing newsworthy is happening there. Portfolio diversification through international markets is a good idea, and there's some potential in the Chinese markets.10:17 – A discussion on the turmoil in the gold markets on news of a 39% import tax on some gold coming into the U.S.13:45 – With an outsized population of retirees on the horizon, and a new generation coming into the workforce with a very different jobs landscape, what's the future of productivity?15:02 – Diversification is the sound investment strategy for the day. We're seeing some softness in the labor market, but most economic indicators are favorable. Still, things can be unpredictable, and a diversified portfolio can shield you from some targeted disruptions.  Additional ResourcesRead: Key Questions: Cracks in the Foundation: Symbolic or Systemic? Fed Unity Frays as Policy Dissonance Grows.Attend: August 19: Key Wealth's National Call: Planning Implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) ActKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

In this week's episode, we discuss eight reports and news items that are impacting the economy today, and which will likely have lingering effects into the future; these touch on the labor market in regard to unemployment and payrolls, housing, inflation, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), earnings season, and – the big news of the week – what came out of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the lower than expected new non-farm payroll report. As always, we analyze these items and how they're affecting the equity and bond markets, and what moves investors may consider making.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerStephen Hoedt, Head of EquitiesRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeCynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management 01:47 – We introduce the eight topics and reports that lay the groundwork for our discussion: weekly initial unemployment claims, job openings, existing home sales, GDP for Q2:2025, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation figures, the jobs report showing underwhelming numbers for new nonfarm payrolls, a negative revision for the May and June figures, and a slight bump in overall unemployment, the FOMC meeting, and news from the midst of earning season.06:30 – The big items from the FOMC: rates remain unchanged, two governors voice dissent, and no firm commitment on a September rate cut. The reasoning behind the continued fed funds rate is that inflation is still elevated, the labor market is robust, unemployment remains low, and inflationary pressures persist due to trade uncertainties.07:42 – Fed Chair Jerome Powell touched on 7 themes during the post-meeting press conference: no rate cuts, monetary policy is restrictive, pressure from tariffs, conflicting pressures between inflation and the labor market, market pricing recalibration, Fed independence in rate setting in light of government borrowing costs, and acknowledging the notable dual dissents within the FOMC meeting.09:35 – The likelihood of a September rate cut dropped to 39% at the time of the FOMC meeting, with a fourth quarter cut more likely. The dissent from governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman seems less politically motivated than borne out of genuine care for the labor market.12:38 – The labor market is stable but might be starting to show some cracks signaling a potential slowdown as layoffs are low but so is hiring.17:01 – The 2-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to Fed policy, rose slightly following the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, then dropped significantly today in reaction to this morning's jobs report – the biggest such reaction since 2004. Given this volatility, expectations of a September rate cut are now increasing.20:07 – Shifting tariffs and trade policy seem to be hitting the stock market this week, with falling copper futures as a notable example. 21:16 – The Trump administration's recent pushback against Powell's wait-and-see approach to rate cuts appears prescient given the market reaction to today's lukewarm jobs report. There's now a higher chance of a Powell resignation as a Fed governor rather than finishing out his full term, after a potential replacement as the sitting Fed Chair.24:14 – As earnings season continues, major tech companies are showing mixed results, with Microsoft and Meta reporting favorably in contrast to lackluster reports from Amazon and Apple.Additional ResourcesRead: What Are the Top 10 Provisions in the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” That Will Impact Businesses?Attend: August 19: Key Wealth's National Call: Planning Implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) ActKey Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

In this week's episode, we review the unemployment and home sales figures that were released this week, as well as the ongoing trade tensions and tariff negotiations between the United States and its trading partners. We also touch on the Federal Reserve's policy decisions and President Trump's visit to tour the renovations to the Federal Reserve headquarters in Washington, D.C. Lastly, we look into the performance of the stock market, including the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs, a new round of corporate earnings, and the resurgence of "meme stocks."Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities01:47 – The initial unemployment claims report showed a decline, indicating a robust employment market. However, existing home sales fell due to higher mortgage rates.02:35 – The European Central Bank paused its rate-cutting cycle, which could be an indirect factor in the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision. President Trump also visited the Federal Reserve and spoke with Chair Jerome Powell.03:52 – Regarding tariffs, the U.S. reached a tentative agreement with Japan to lower tariff rates, which was seen as positive news. However, the overall tariff rate remains elevated compared to the beginning of the year.07:58 – A discussion on the resilience of the economy, with corporate earnings exceeding expectations and the labor market remaining healthy. They also noted some potential headwinds, such as policy uncertainty and the potential for market volatility as we head into autumn. Additional ResourcesKey Questions: What Are the Top 10 Provisions in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' that Will Impact Individuals?Key Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

In this week's episode, we cover a wide range of reports that touch on inflation, consumer spending, manufacturing activity, and what might come out of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 30. We also analyze the moves in both the bond markets and equities caused by the rumors of President Trump's desire to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Lastly, we discuss the potential for antitrust activity among the most influential companies in the technology sector, colloquially known as the Magnificent 7.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 00:57 – The Consumer Price Index – a measure of inflation – increased in both overall and core (which excludes food and energy prices) figures in June, both month over month and year over year. The next release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) – another measure of inflation – is expected on July 31.02:03 – The U.S. Census Bureau released its monthly report on advance monthly retail sales, which was positive for the economy and showed an 0.6% increase in consumer spending for June.02:46 – The Federal Reserve's latest Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report showed a 0.3% uptick in manufacturing in June, which was a very welcome sign because April and May figures were relatively flat, and March was negative.03:27 – The Fed released its Beige Book report, which comes out in advance of the upcoming FOMC meeting. Overall, it shows cautiously positive signs across the twelve districts, with five reporting slight or modest gains, five with flat activity, and modest declines for the remaining two.04:12 – We note three themes to pay attention to over the next few weeks in addition to the upcoming FOMC meeting: President Trump's ongoing or extended pause on tariffs, the PCE inflation report, and updated figures on the labor market.05:08 – Because the CPI data was higher than expected, market expectations of the Fed issuing a July rate cut are down to under 5%, while expectations of a September rate cut are around 60%. Still, a growing contingency is betting on the next rates cuts coming as late as the fourth quarter of this year or not at all until 2026.06:27 – The bond market reacts to this week's economic news with front-end yields, which are more sensitive to Fed policy, moving lower more rapidly than longer-ended yields, which are more sensitive to the economy and inflation.07:56 – The Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (“the MOVE Index”,) – which tracks volatility in the bond market – spiked on reports that Trump was thinking of removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, but quickly came back down and remains stable, signaling a resilient bond market.09:56 – An overall analysis of the economy and markets considering this week's rumors of Powell's potential ouster, the more likely potential of his serving out his full term, and conversations of who might come next. We look to historical precedent during Richard Nixon's presidency for what might happen in the future.13:29 – The equities market continues to see all-time highs and will likely remain high in August before anticipated cooling beginning in September. Technology sector stocks lead the market rally, with some lagging in healthcare and consumer staples.17:36 – Stocks of the Magnificent 7 are buoying the markets partly because of their high trading volume and concentration. More singularly focused companies like Microsoft and NVIDIA seem immune from government interference, but more-diversified companies like Meta and Alphabet might be more susceptible to anti-trust efforts.20:19 – The overall economic outlook is positive for now. Recession fears and tariff-related volatility are coming down, but can come back at any moment. The implications for your portfolio are to balance risk and remain diversified to offset potential future fluctuations.Additional ResourcesKey Questions: What Is in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and How Does It Compare to Current Law?Key Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

In this week's episode, our experts discuss the state of the economy, markets, and investment outlook for the second half of 2025. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities01:36 - Recap of employment data which shows stability with positive revisions and declining unemployment claims. 03:54 - Discussion about renewed tariff threats (up to 200%) and their potential to slow growth and raise inflation. The team highlights the impact of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” on deficits and long-term interest rates.08:48 - Reflection on a volatile first half of 2025 and anticipates modest gains through August. Forecast of potential market “indigestion” in September–October due to valuation concerns14:33 - Prediction of two rate cuts in 2025, likely starting in September. The team emphasizes uncertainty around tariffs and inflation, and recommends high-quality corporate bonds over Treasuries.Additional ResourcesKey Questions: What Is in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and How Does It Compare to Current Law? | Key Private BankBooks and Podcasts for Your 2025 Summer Reading and ListeningKey Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

In this episode, our experts opine on the economy, considering three key indicators making a splash this week: unemployment claims are down, but so was the first quarter estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while inflation stayed stickier than hoped for in May. Meanwhile, bond yields moved higher, and the stock market is having a heyday, despite the dollar hitting a three-year low. We will be off next week for the July 4th holiday, and look forward to bringing you fresh insights the following week.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 02:16 – Initial unemployment claims for the week ending June 21 came in at 236,000 – 10,000 lower than the prior week – which was a welcome sign given this figure's recent upward trajectory.02:43 – The final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate for the first quarter of 2025 showed a 0.5% contraction, caused by an increase in imports ahead of President Trump's insistence on widespread tariffs.03:37 – Inflation – excluding food and energy – remained sticky in May, as the core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) ticked up to 0.2% month-over-month, and 2.7% year-over-year.05:01 – Following a run of resiliency, key economic indicators appear to be following suit with the negative sentiment that has been pervasive in the first half of 2025.09:47 – Fed Funds futures are pricing in a modest 20% chance of a rate cut in July, but expectations of the first rate cut in September appear more solid at 90% odds.10:22 – Bond yields moved higher in reaction to the PCE inflation data, while the U.S. dollar dipped to its lowest level in three years.11:58 – Investment grade credit spreads remain unchanged for the week and continue to trade at a very tight range.13:39 – The stock market is enjoying all-time highs that will likely continue into next month, furthering the trend of July being the best-performing month of the year, based on historical data.17:56 – The 90-day pause on tariffs announced in April is set to expire on July 9, though recent news suggests this is more of a soft target than a hard deadline. Additional ResourcesWhat Happens If the TCJA Expires? Why It Matters Now for Your Taxes and Your LegacyBooks and Podcasts for Your 2025 Summer Reading and ListeningKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week to report on dampened economic projections, forecast two potential rate cuts in the remainder of the year, and reaffirm the wait-and-see approach that has been a hallmark of Fed policy thus far in 2025. Our experts analyze what came out of the meeting, how investors should respond, and what the future may hold. We also break down the key provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act as passed by the U.S. House of Representatives, what comes next in the Senate, and highlight four provisions that may impact you.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerCynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio ManagementJoe Velkos, National Tax Director, Key Wealth02:12 – The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report showed a 0.9% month-over-month dip in May, and April figures were revised to a 0.1% decline.03:12 – U.S. industrial production fell by 0.2% in May, according to the Federal Reserve. 03:54 – At this week's FOMC meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%.04:07 – We look at key economic projections, including a lowered GDP growth median, higher inflation projections, and increased unemployment forecasts. 05:03 – The median FOMC forecast sees two 25 basis points cuts in 2025, though there appears to be disagreement among members with some expecting no rate cuts in 2025, while others expect only a single 25 basis points cut this year.06:10 – The markets and analysts weigh in on the probability of rate cuts this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains cautious and confirmed the Fed is positioned to respond as needed, especially considering uncertainty around the impact of upcoming tariffs on inflation.10:45 – A discussion on who might succeed Jerome Powell as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve.12:54 – Uncertainty across several fronts signals a wide range of possible outcomes in international and domestic markets and politics. For investors' portfolios, diversification will be as important as it's ever been.15:14 – Joe Velkos, National Tax Director for Key Wealth, joins us to walk through the “One Big Beautiful Bill” passed by the House of Representatives on May 22.19:07 – The bill faces opposition in the Senate, including among Republicans, making it unlikely that the bill will remain unchanged or that it will be passed before July 4th, as is President Trump's goal.20:18 – We highlight four key provisions of the bill: an increase to the maximum state local tax deduction, an increase to the lifetime gift and estate tax exemption, restoring the bonus depreciation for business owners, and the new proposed elimination of tax on tips and overtime pay. Additional ResourcesWatch the replay of our June 11 National CallKey Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

In this week's episode, Ather Bajwa, Managing Director of Multi-Strategy Research, joins us to deliver a masterclass in private credit – what it is, why it's important, and what to consider before investing. We also unpack new surveys and reports across a variety of topics including unemployment, inflation, and volatility. As usual, we look at where the markets are in light of the global and national news of the day, such as increasing conflict in the Middle East and the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyStephen Hoedt, Head of EquitiesAther Bajwa, Managing Director of Multi-Strategy Research 00:23 – The PGA U.S. Open tries to provide a bright spot during a week of somber news from around the globe, including the passing of Beach Boys' keyboardist Brian Wilson.01:50 – Initial weekly unemployment claims remain stable from the previous week.02:18 – The Consumer Price Index shows mixed stories amid persistent inflation; the Federal Reserve's target of 2% stays elusive.03:23 – The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates at next week's FOMC meeting.05:06 – Escalating tensions in the Middle East have a negligible downside effect on a stock marketing experiencing all-time highs.07:33 – A University of Michigan survey of consumers and an American Association of Individual Investors survey indicate an overall improving attitude toward the economy, despite an uptick in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX).10:59 – An introductory overview of the trending private credit market.15:02 – Why private credit is becoming increasingly popular, and what changes we're seeing in the quality of participants.17:35 – The advantages and considerations of private credit, and what to consider before making this investment.  Additional ResourcesKey Questions: What Tax Proposals Are in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' That All Taxpayers Should Be Aware Of? Key Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

In this week's episode we unpack three reports about the labor market; the mixed results show an uptick in new job openings amid increasing initial weekly unemployment claims, though the unemployment rate remains steady at 4.2%. We also discuss the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report, which shows elevated levels of consumer and commercial uncertainty ahead of the June 18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. As always, we analyze how this news is affecting the equity and fixed income markets. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 02:07 – The Fed's Beige Book shows mixed growth across districts, and an increasing degree of policy and economic uncertainty.02:59 – We introduce two reports about jobs and payrolls from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and another report from the Department of Labor on unemployment.06:20 – Putting the news of the week in context of the overall uncertainty caused by the question of tariffs and trade policy.07:24 – Equities appear to be on an upward trajectory calling the old “Sell in May and go away” adage into question.10:05 – The Magnificent 7 companies' stocks take diverging paths resulting from tariffs or noise from the Beltway.12:10 – The bond market reacts to the nonfarm payroll news, while traders ease their expectations of future rate cuts.13:27 – Treasury yields moved higher, though buyers remain standoffish amid the continuing debate on the U.S. fiscal deficit and tax policy.15:27 – Credit spreads show an optimistic outlook, especially on corporate issuances.16:31 – In a reversal of the historic norm, global central banks made moves to cut rates rather than following the U.S. Fed's example.Additional ResourcesJoin our June 11 National CallKey Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

In this week's episode, we delve into the big economic news shaping our world and portfolios. We provide updates on the job market, modest gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index and an uptick in inflation, new tax policies and the National Deficit, and what the Federal Reserve might be thinking for the rest of this year and beyond (notably, the long-lasting implications of the potential loss of safe haven status in U.S. Treasury bonds). Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeSean Poe, Director of Multi-Strategy Research 01:50 – Weekly unemployment claims were 240,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's claims 02:22 – The second estimate for first quarter of 2025 GDP came in at -0.2%, a minor improvement from the advance estimate of -0.3%. Contributing factors were reduced consumer spending offset by investment increases. 02:55 – In inflation news, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (Core PCE) came in at a 2.5% increase year-over-year; this was the second month of slower results but still above the Fed's goal of 2.0%. Goods inflation continues to be deflationary, while Services inflation remains higher than desired. 05:19 – The trade war is not over as talks continue to evolve in unpredictable ways, exacerbating some of the swing we've seen in market behavior. Legal challenges to the imposition of President Trump's tariffs further complicate global trade deals, suggesting that a measured and diversified approach to portfolio management is a sound course of action. 08:00 – The U.S. annual deficit sits at $1.9 trillion. Proposed tax cuts from the House of Representative would add as much as $2.6 trillion in borrowing, making a potential recession more challenging to manage. This, in addition to the recent downgrades of the U.S. Sovereign debt, may have negative effects on U.S. Treasuries. 09:38 – Minutes from the Fed's May Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting were released this week. Compounding uncertainties have immobilized the Fed from making clear decisions on monetary policy. Two rate cuts are expected for the remainder of 2025, with the first cut potentially at the September FOMC meeting. 12:00 – The 10-year Treasury bond note yield is below 4.5%, which is well below this year's previous peak, though the bond market is still less volatile than equities in times of economic and earnings uncertainty. Long-term investors are seeking to lock in yields of 5% or more and are considering padding their portfolios with high-quality corporate credit to mitigate future economic fluctuations. 14:40 – A primer on private equity: What it is, and what it looks like today. How might it fit into your investment strategy? We also provide an explanation of private equity secondaries investments and how they can be used. 17:09 – The private equity secondary market is projected to experience a 20%-25% increase in the market from 2024 and would then account for about a third of all private equity transaction value. Newsworthy recent examples of Harvard University and Yale University selling a portion of their private equity holdings to secondaries funds to free up liquidity in anticipation of an increased tax burden and future legal challenges. Additional ResourcesJoin us on June 11 for our Midyear Investment UpdateKey Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

In this week's episode, our experts unpack the past few days following positive news on tariff discussions between the United States and China. We also provide observations on the final earnings calls of the first quarter of 2025, changes in consumer sentiment, ongoing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve, what happened in the Treasury Bond market, and how proposed tax and spending plans from Congress will impact the federal deficit. Please note that we will not release a new episode next week in observance of the Memorial Day holiday weekend; we encourage you to take a moment to reflect on the history and meaning of the holiday as we begin the summer season.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 00:21 – A reflection on Memorial Day.03:05 – A review of this week's Consumer Price Index measure of inflation.03:56 – The Consumer Price Index report showed month-over-month retail sales rose by 0.1% in April, while industrial production remained flat at a 0.0% change from March.05:18 – Equity markets rose on news of a coordinated effort between the U.S. and China to rein in tariffs.11:09 – A look into corporate news of the week in relation to mergers and acquisitions, earnings calls, and a surge in corporate debt issuance.12:52 – The 10-year Treasury note yield rose to above 4.5% before coming back down towards the end of the week.15:51 – Priorities seem to shift for Fed Chair Jerome Powell towards addressing employment shortfalls, while still maintaining an inflation target of 2%.16:52 – A discussion about the potential impacts on the federal deficit and general investment strategy of the proposed tax reforms making their way through Congress.Additional ResourcesKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

In this week's episode, we review the news from Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, highlighting four themes: a slower path to rate cuts; rising risk of policy dilemma and potential stagflation; decisions will be made based on data, not any pre-committed timelines; a policy bias towards easing but with less conviction. Overall economic indicators remain stable, setting us up for a peaceful weekend to celebrate the mothers in our lives this Mother's Day.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyCynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio ManagementGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 01:57 – Weekly initial unemployment claims ending May 3 came in at 228,000, leveling out last week's larger than average increase, signaling that unemployment remains stable. 02:25 – The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Report showed a tenth consecutive month of expansion in April, and effectively for the past five years. This further contrasts with the weak manufacturing economy. 03:17 – News from Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee, during which the Fed maintained its current target rate of 4.25% to 4.50%, citing ongoing economic uncertainties especially from recent trade policies. We explore four key themes to level set future expectations. 10:18 – Due to the Fed's cautious wait-and-see approach, and given the Trump administration's 90-day pause on tariffs, the Fed will likely not make any significant decisions prior to its July 30 meeting. 11:04 – A potential trade deal between the United States and the United Kingdom may inform what we can expect on overall trade policy going forward.  13:19 – Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100 are hovering around or above their respective 200-day averages, signaling continuing improvement after the Liberation Day fallout. 16:40 – News from Apple and Google appear to validate the idea that Artificial Intelligence is disrupting industry writ large, and a future with a new list of “Magnificent Seven” stocks may come sooner than later. Additional ResourcesKey Questions: Is Jay Powell's Job at Risk, and What Are the Risks for Investors? | Key Private BankKey Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn 

In this week's episode, our investment experts explore three major themes from the week: negative real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation, and the labor market. We discuss how these factors affect equity and bond markets, and overall sentiment regarding the economy. We also consider if the relatively positive news from this week continues into the weeks and months ahead, or if the full negative impact of tariffs will make for a sobering summer. 01:51 – The advance estimate for the first quarter of 2025 real gross domestic product showed a 0.3% decrease, signaling the first negative quarter since early 2022. 03:02 – The Bureau of Economic Analysis released favorable data on PCE inflation, which was relatively flat month-over-month, and showed year-over-year growth of 2.3%, which was lower than both January and February. 03:57 – The labor market has a cautiously optimistic outlook based on this week's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, weekly unemployment claims, and better-than-expected growth in new nonfarm payrolls, which gave the markets a bump this morning. 09:13 – Expectations of an early rate cut in June from the Federal Reserve are falling as a result of the positive jobs report. Bond investors feel that future employment reports will be less optimistic, and are thus buying on the dip. 11:36 – Changing tax policy will likely be making news soon, especially on the question of tax-exempt status for universities, though existing bonds are unlikely to be affected. 14:09 – Equity markets hit a 20-day high following a handful of better-than-expected earnings reports this week, mostly from the technology sector.  15:34 – Volatility continues to decline from recent highs, and credit markets appear healthy as evidenced by tightening BBB versus BB credit spreads. Additional ResourcesKey Questions: What Is the Mar-a-Lago Accord and Why Should Investors Care? | Key Private BankKey Questions: Do Cracks in the Credit Markets Mean US Corporates' Financial Health Has Cracked? | Key Private BankKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel delves into the ongoing volatility from President Trump's on-again/off-again tariffs, the public tensions between Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the question of a Fed free of political influence, and what happened with earnings in the first quarter of 2025.  01:52 – Both new unemployment claims and continuing unemployment claims remained stable, despite recent and ongoing market volatility.  02:20 – Existing home sales fell in March by 5.9%, the biggest month-over-month decline since November 2022.    02:57 – The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report came out on Wednesday, showing that economic activity changed very little since the previous report.  03:06 – Comments on shifting U.S. tariff policy, including American and Chinese leadership's concession that things might have gotten out of hand, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's hints at lower tariffs in the future.  07:18 – Discussion on President Trump's public battle with Fed Chair Powell on interest rates, questions around the Powell's job security and the notion of an independent Federal Reserve, and how this all impacts the bond market.  12:08 – Analyzing the relatively small 6% dip to the equity markets year-to-date amid ongoing volatility, and how negative sentiment and positive momentum can work together to push the market higher.  17:35 – Looking ahead to next week's earnings reports and indicators to watch out for, chiefly Friday's employment report.  Additional ResourcesKey Questions: What Is the Mar-a-Lago Accord and Why Should Investors Care? | Key Private BankKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn250425-3182628

In this week's jam-packed Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of experts as they share their perspectives on the latest economic reports. Our panel shares detailed insights into CPI inflation, initial unemployment claims, tariffs, the equities and bond market, and rate cuts.  Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities03:48 – The Bureau of Labor Statistics released a favorable Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report showing inflation for March, month-over-month, declined for the first time since May 2020, at -0.1%04:47 – Initial unemployment claims for the week ending April 5 were reported at 223,000, remaining stable05:41 – Comments on the considerable market volatility, within the equities market, brought on by recent U.S. tariff policies 11:41 – Mentions of ‘Prospect Theory', and a reminder of its principles, as the equities market, more specifically the Volatility Index (VIX), looks to be in crisis mode 14:20 – Remarks on bond market volatility and its effect on credit spreads, investment grades and yields19:08 – While a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs has been announced by the President, the Federal Reserve (Fed) may follow suit with a pause on cutting rates at the next two upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings20:10 – Final comments on what U.S. companies are doing to prepare earnings guidance for the second quarter (Q2:2025) after the uncertainty regarding tariffsAdditional ResourcesKey Questions: Do Cracks in the Credit Markets Mean US Corporates' Financial Health Has Cracked? | Key Private BankKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

In this week's jam-packed Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of experts as they share their perspectives on the latest economic reports. Our panel shares detailed insights into the ISM Report on Business, new non-farm payroll data, tariffs, the equities market, and rate cuts. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities01:13 – The ISM Report on Business was released and indicators showed Manufacturing has continued to remain in a contractionary phase, while Services continues to be in an expansionary phase for the fifth year01:49 – The Bureau of Labor Statistics New Non-Farm Payroll was reported above expectations for March at 228,000 02:32 – Reactions on the recent White House press conference surrounding U.S. President Trump's executive order on tariffs03:06 – Comments on the new U.S. tariff policy, soon to be established, and what can U.S. and global markets expect from both universal and reciprocal tariffs08:38 – Remarks on the equities market and its volatility after the new tariff policy was signed into order; experts are seeing possible trends in the markets with the current U.S. economy, similar to the initial shock in the economy during the COVID-19 Pandemic12:59 – Based on recent ISM Report on Business and the new U.S. tariff policy, the bond market is predicting a higher chance of the U.S. economy heading into a recession, calling for the Federal Reserve to implement rate cuts, more than initially expected, in 202517:12 – Final comments on remaining invested in high-quality, diversified portfolios Additional ResourcesKey Questions: How Much Tech Do You Really Own? | Key Private BankKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

In this week's jam-packed Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of experts as they share their perspectives on the latest economic reports. Our panel shares detailed insights into the U.S. Consumer Confidence report, GDP, PCE inflation, equities, the credit market, and municipal bonds. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of EquitiesTim McDonough, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management03:20 – The Conference Board's U.S. Consumer Confidence report was released and showed a decline in overall consumer confidence due to factors such as the stock market, inflation, and others03:58 – The final estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter 2024 was reported at 2.4%, slightly revised up from prior estimates 04:41 – The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Core PCE inflation at 0.4% month-over-month in February, as well as 2.8% year-over-year, both unfavorable06:11 – Comments on the equities market and how the market's volatility is influencing investors' thinking surrounding trades11:31 – Though the recent PCE inflation report was less than favorable, the credit markets, investment grade and high yield bond spreads don't seem to be adversely affected by the reading, as of now15:22 – Remarks on the municipal bond market and changing dynamics of yield opportunities for investorsAdditional ResourcesKey Questions: How Much Tech Do You Really Own? | Key Private BankKey Questions: How Do We Invest in Tech? | Key Private BankKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

In this week's jam-packed Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of experts as they share their perspectives on the latest economic reports. Our panel shares detailed insights into the recent FOMC meeting, credit markets, and the yield curve Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyCindy Honcharenko, Director of Portfolio ManagementGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeKey points include:01:34 - This Week's Market and Economic Updates: February 2025 saw a 0.2% increase in retail sales, a 0.7% increase in industrial production, and a 4.2% increase in existing home sales04:19 - FOMC Meeting: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%, with projections for 2025 including 1.7% real GDP growth, 2.8% core PCE inflation, and 4.4% unemployment09:52 - Credit Markets: Credit spreads remain resilient despite market volatility, with high demand for corporate bonds13:44 - Yield Curve: The yield curve steepened after the Fed meeting, with front-end yields moving lower faster than longer-term yields14:43 - Sentiment and Volatility: Equity market sentiment is bearish, similar to levels seen in 2009The episode concludes with the panelists sharing their basketball predictions for the NCAA tournament.Additional Resources3/19 FOMC RecapKey Questions: How Much Tech Do You Really Own? | Key Private BankKey Questions: How Do We Invest in Tech? | Key Private BankKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into the JOLTS report, CPI and PPI data, the equities market, tariffs, foreign government spending, the credit market, and the upcoming FOMC meeting.  Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyDonald Saverno, Director of Investment ResearchRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities01:46 – The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report was outlined 7.7 million job openings for January 01:58 – Both Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports were released with CPI inflation down 0.2% from January, reporting at 2.8% for February02:56 – Comments on the recent equities market volatility after this week's 10% drop09:48 – Comments on tariffs and government spending among other foreign markets such as Europe and China; While the U.S. equities market seems to be in a down trend, other nations don't seem to share the same trend15:59 – Comments on the admirable resilience of the credit market, investment grades, and high yield bond spreads due to an abundance of liquidity 18:18 – Expectations for the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting  and how recent economic data such as CPI, PPI, and PCE inflation rates and reports may affect the conversationAdditional ResourcesKey Wealth National Call Replay Key Questions: How Much Tech Do You Really Own? | Key Private Bank Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedInKBCM Disclosure

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into PMI data, the Fed's Beige Book, the Employment Situation Report, the credit market, the U.S. dollar, and the upcoming Key Wealth National Call.  Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities01:28 – The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) revealed the overall manufacturing data dropped from January to February still proving manufacturing is in a contractionary state longer-term 02:27 – The Federal Reserve (Fed) released their Beige Book of economic data 03:15 – The Employment Situation Report showed the nonfarm payroll data at 151,000, with modest revisions for December and January   07:57 – Comments on the credit market, investment grade and high yield bond spreads  15:44 – Comments on the U.S. dollar and how it's being impacted by trade policies and implementation of tariffs 19:05 - Reminder for the upcoming Key Wealth National Call Wednesday, March 12th at 1:00pm EST/10:00am PST Additional ResourcesKey Questions: How Do We Invest in Tech? | Key Private Bank Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedInKBCM Disclosure

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into initial unemployment claims, PCE inflation, equities, treasuries, consumer spending, and the upcoming Key Wealth National Call.    Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities02:51 - Initial unemployment claims for week ending February 22 were reported at 242,000 03:51 – Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation month-over-over was reported at 0.3% for both the overall and core inflation. In addition, year-over-year for January was reported at 2.5% overall and 2.6% for core inflation05:02 – Comments on equities and volatility that was seen from specific stocks like NVIDIA this week, but was overshadowed by fears of a recession07:47 – Comments on treasuries, specifically the 10-year Treasury yield as it fell 30 basis points after peaking less than 20 days prior 12:39 – Remarks on the overall consumer and how the threat of tariffs may soon be affecting consumer spending14:56 – We hear how customer-centric companies such as Home Depot, Lowes, and Walmart are reacting to overall consumer spending, and the effect it's having on their earnings 21:24 – Reminder for the upcoming Key Wealth National Call Wednesday, March 12th at 1:00pm EST/10:00am PSTAdditional ResourcesKey Questions: Q4 Earnings Recap "What Did We Learn From Fourth Quarter Earnings?" | Key Private Bank Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedInKBCM Disclosure

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into initial unemployment claims, the concept of a “Mar-A-Lago Accord”, the credit market, the FOMC meeting minutes, and the upcoming Key Wealth National Call.   Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities01:40 – Initial unemployment claims for week ending February 15 were reported at 219,000 02:21 – Remarks on recent economic activity and what can be expected 03:41 – Comments on a new proposed concept, potentially called the “Mar-A-Lago Accord” and what it means for the dollar, the markets and the economy11:31 – Comments on the credit market and its performance, tying into the Federal Reserve's stance and independence 14:13 – Takeaways from the recently released January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes 16:29 – Final comments about remaining invested and diversified within your portfolio 17:24 – Reminder for the upcoming Key Wealth National Call Wednesday, March 12th at 1:00pm EST/10:00am PSTAdditional ResourcesKey Questions: Q4 Earnings Recap "What Did We Learn From Fourth Quarter Earnings?" | Key Private Bank Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into CPI inflation data, retail sales, corporate earnings, the credit market, and commodity trends.   Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities02:00 – The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported an increase of 3.0% for all items year-over-year for January, higher than the prior month02:43 – Retail sales declined 0.9% month-over-month in January 03:39 – Comments on recent economic data and how it seems inflation is still running hotter than expected07:04 – While fourth quarter 2024 earnings have performed above expectations, it is expected the overall growth for 2025 will be less than 15% 11:27 – Remarks on the credit market as they continue to not show volatility due to the increased demand 15:51 – Comments on trends in commodities, such as copper and gold 18:16 – Final comments about remaining invested and diversified within your portfolio Additional ResourcesKey Questions: Do the California Wildfires Put Any Investment at Risk? | Key Private Bank Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into PMI data, the JOLTS report, Nonfarm Payrolls, potential rate cuts, the yield curve, fourth quarter earnings, recent tariff policies, and Super Bowl LIX predictions.   Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyConnor Cloetingh, Director of Investment Research Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities01:20 – ISM Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) registered at 50.9% in January for manufacturing, representing expansion taking place after 26 months of contraction02:02 – The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported a decrease in job openings for January at 7.6 million 02:26 – The Employment Situation Summary reported new nonfarm payrolls for January at 143,000. Furthermore, both reports from November and December were revised upward03:43 – Based on the recent economic data, we hear comments on what we can anticipate the data-dependent Federal Reserve (Fed) will do next regarding 2025 rate cuts06:03 – Remarks on the yield curve, and U.S. Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent's support on issuing treasury debt in the form of bills instead of treasury bonds 07:13 – Comments on the earnings market and recent tariff policies put into place on Canada and Mexico14:52 – The team gives their predictions on who will win Super Bowl LIXAdditional ResourcesKey Questions: Does the Social Security Fairness Act Affect Me? | Key Private Bank Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into fourth quarter GDP, PCE inflation, the FOMC meeting, the equities market, and artificial intelligence (AI).  Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyCindy Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management George Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities02:01 – Gross Domestic Product for the U.S. fourth quarter 2024 advance estimate, at an annualized rate, was 2.3%. 02:42 – The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index was released and measured inflation at 2.8% year-over-year for December, excluding food and energy 03:20 – A recap of this week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting11:12 – Comments on the DeepSeek panic earlier this week in the tech industry, and how it's been affecting the equities market16:39 – Remarks on the AI ‘killer app' and its benefits to the economy. Additional ResourcesKey Questions: Will AI Live Up to The Hype? | Key Private Bank Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into the initial unemployment claims, the equities market, interest rates, and the upcoming FOMC meeting.  Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities01:18  – Initial unemployment claims for the week ending January 18th came in at 223,00002:05 – Remarks on the unexpected surge in stock market participation (breadth) amid the inauguration of a new presidential administration  08:31 – As Trump 2.0 takes shape, we hear how the president will potentially attempt to influence the Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower interest rates13:33 – Final comments on this week's data trends, the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, and recent presidential orders enacted this week Additional ResourcesKey Questions: Will AI Live Up to The Hype? | Key Private Bank Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into the Beige Book, CPI data, the stock and bond markets, tariffs, the debt ceiling, and Key Wealth's 2025 Outlook.  Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities02:07 – The Federal Reserve released its Beige Book in advance of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on January 29th03:21 – The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reported at 0.4% on all items for the month of December, and excluding food and energy, the CPI was reported at 0.2%06:48 – As we ease into 2025, we hear about the equities market and the CPI data's effect on it10:07 – Amid Treasury Secretary Designate, Scott Bessent's confirmation, and the plan to gradually increase tariffs, we hear comments on how it may affect the bond market and inflation15:05 – Remarks on Bessent's recent comments on the concept of potentially removing the US debt ceiling and the bond market's skepticism that it could be accomplished 16:10 – Final comments highlighting the recent release of Key Wealth's 2025 OutlookAdditional ResourcesKey Questions: Are Financial Stocks More Attractive Under a Second Trump Administration? | Key Private Bank Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into the JOLTS report, the Employment Situation, treasury yields, the Fed, and tariff policies. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities01:28 – A recap of important economic news reported in December you may have missed03:23 – The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report at 8.1 million in November, supporting strength in the employment market04:00 – The Employment Situation Summary reported total nonfarm payroll employment at 256,000 05:00 – Based on recent economic data, the U.S. economy continues to prevail  06:51 – The release of the nonfarm payroll report continues to put pressure on treasury yields as the 10-year treasury yield increased nearly 20 basis points in less than two weeks 11:29 – As the new U.S. presidential administration prepares to enter office, the Federal Reserve (Fed) may have to shift its stance on not just being data dependent, but also fiscal policy dependent 13:07 – Though the new U.S. presidential administration hasn't taken office yet, the impact of the tariff conversation seems to have already taken afoot. Canada's Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, has announced his resignation and the country may be headed toward a ‘right-side' political environment Additional ResourcesKey Questions: Are Financial Stocks More Attractive Under a Second Trump Administration? | Key Private Bank Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

In this week's jam-packed Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of experts as they share their perspectives on the latest economic reports. Our panel shares detailed insights into the FOMC meeting, GDP, and predictions for 2025.  Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyCindy Honcharenko, Director of Portfolio Management George Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities01:31 – The Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates by 25 basis points at the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting01:56 – The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the third quarter GDP analysis, showing an increase at an annual rate of 3.1%03:34 – A recap from this week's FOMC meeting06:42 – Comments on the sharp reaction from the markets after the confusion surrounding the FOMC meeting and Fed Chair Powell's press conference08:30 – Comments on the hawkish rate cut, and what we can expect from the Fed going into 202511:33 – The team gives their perspectives on what surprised them in the economy this past year in 202414:36 – The team gives their predictions on what economic activity can be expected in 2025Additional ResourcesKey Questions: Investment Manager Outperformance: Skill vs. Luck | Key Private BankKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

In this week's jam-packed Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of experts as they share their perspectives on the latest economic reports. Our panel shares detailed insights into the initial unemployment claims, CPI data, next week's FOMC meeting, the bond and equities markets. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities02:21 – Initial unemployment claims for the week ending December 7 were reported at 242,00002:51 – The Consumer Price Index was released and is higher than expected; CPI data for November shows a 0.1% increase from October reported at 2.7% year-over-year04:02 – Comments on this week's economic data and how the Federal Reserve (Fed) may decide on interest rates during the next week's FOMC meeting following the data releases07:31 – Based on the CPI data, the bond market is anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting. We can also expect a summary of the Fed members' 2025 economic projections 11:20 – Remarks on what is forecasted next year in the equities market based on the Fed and this year's economic data pattern; equities such as cyclicals and other sectors that may benefit from less regulation amid the new U.S. presidential administration taking office16:10 – Final comments on additional investment content available on www.key.com/wealthinsights.Additional ResourcesKey Questions: Investment Manager Outperformance: Skill vs. Luck | Key Private BankKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

In this week's jam-packed Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of experts as they share their perspectives on the latest economic reports. Our panel shares detailed insights into the PMI reports, initial unemployment claims, the Employment Situation report, the Beige Book, our 2025 investment and economic outlook, and the upcoming FOMC meeting .Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities01:23 – The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reported Manufacturing higher in November, while Services came in lower in November02:36 – Initial unemployment claims for the week ending November 30 were reported at 224,00002:56 – The Employment Situation reported new non-farm payrolls at 227,000 in November; The unemployment rate remained relatively the same at 4.2% in November 04:21 – Comments on our Key Wealth 2025 investment and economic outlook, and a recap of the recent Key Wealth National Call09:48 – Remarks on the new presidential administration, and what it may do for economic growth10:53 – Comments on if the US dollar will be ‘dethroned' as the world's reserve currency13:00 – Expectations for the upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC meeting and how the Employment Situation data may affect a December rate cut18:44 – Remarks on if the new presidential administration will affect the equities market, specifically the Magnificent 7, and thoughts for the new yearAdditional ResourcesKey Questions: Should Investors Consider Dividend Stocks in a Falling-Rate Environment? | Key Private BankKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

In this week's jam-packed Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of experts as they share their perspectives on the latest economic reports. Our panel shares detailed insights into the US Leading Economic Indicator, existing home sales, the equities market, SEC chairperson resignation, the bond market, and rate cuts.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities01:11 – The Conference Board's US Leading Economic Indicator showed the indicator declined by 0.4% for October 02:08 – The National Association of Realtors reported a 3.4% increase in existing home sales for October03:17 – Comments on the equities market and the uptick we saw this week for S&P 500 earnings07:20 – Remarks on Gary Gensler – the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's chairperson – and his recent resignation announcement amid the new U.S. presidential administration change09:22 – Comments on the bond market and the pace of rate cuts we can expect in 202511:47 – Thoughts on recent comments made by Federal Reserve presidents, like Susan Collins, and their stance on rate cuts12:40 – Final thoughts on the team's favorite Thanksgiving dishesAdditional ResourcesKey Questions: Behind the Commercial Break: What Does Ad Spending Tell Us About the US Consumer? | Key Private Bank Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

The Key Wealth Matters weekly podcast covers important topics including the markets, the economy, and investing. This week's episode features discussions on:Market updates, with the S&P 500 down slightly this week despite being up 25% year-to-date. Rising Treasury yields are making further gains difficult.Tax policy under the reelected President Trump, including plans to make his 2017 tax cuts permanent and possibly lower the corporate tax rate further.Implications for the municipal bond market, with concerns about potential changes to tax-exempt status for private activity bonds and the alternative minimum tax.The Federal Reserve's path forward on interest rates, with Powell signaling a slower pace of rate cuts.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyStephen Hoedt, Head of EquitiesJoe Velkos, National Tax DirectorPaul Toft, Senior Fixed Income Portfolio ManagerAdditional ResourcesKey Questions: What Do the Election Results Mean for the Economy, the Markets, and Your Portfolio? | Key WealthKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market Research Weekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

In this week's jam-packed Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of experts as they share their perspectives on the latest economic reports. Our panel shares detailed insights into the Purchasing Manager's Index, the recent U.S. presidential election, the equities and bond markets, and the recent FOMC meeting. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyCindy Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management George Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities02:33 – The Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) was released for both manufacturing, showing a continuous decline, and for services, showing a continuous expansion reporting the highest read since July 202204:17 – Comments on the recent U.S. presidential election and the outcome of the president elect07:45 – Comments on how the recent U.S. presidential election may affect the equities market and the performance we might expect to see for the next 4 years11:57 – Despite the equities market cheers regarding the U.S. presidential election results, the bond market is preparing for the new administration's fiscal policy that may lead to higher debt and deficits with a risk of a rise in inflation14:43 – A recap of Thursday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and their decision to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, making the new target rate the range of 4.50% – 4.75%18:20 – Final thoughts on Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell's statement: “with reference to interest rates cuts, we are on the right path, but we don't yet know the right pace” as well as the Federal Reserve's independenceAdditional ResourcesKey Questions: The Yield Curve Has Un-inverted. Now What? | Key Private BankKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

In this week's jam-packed Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of experts as they share their perspectives on the latest economic reports. Our panel shares detailed insights into the bond and equities markets' reactions to the latest reports and looks ahead to next week's US presidential election and FOMC meeting. This week's episode also features special guest, Joe Velkos, who overviews the proposed tax policies of both presidential candidates.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of EquitiesJoe Velkos, National Director of Tax Policy03:53 – Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings Report and Employment Cost Index Report update 04:57 – Dept. of Labor weekly initial unemployment claims update05:36 – Advanced estimate for 3rd Quarter Real GDP for the US Economy06:21 – Update on PCE, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation 07:23 – The latest employment numbers09:06 – Comments on the bond market reaction to the latest economic updates and anticipation of the Fed's rate decision next week.14:53 – Remarks on a busy week in the equities market and looking ahead to the conclusion of the election season 18:45 – Perspectives on how legislative tax policy works overall as well as an overview on the proposed tax policies of both Harris and Trump

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into the Beige Book, initial unemployment claims, existing home sales, the S&P 500, the bond market, the MOVE Index, and upcoming economic news. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities01:54 – The Federal Reserve released the October Beige Book, highlighting the economic activity to be discussed at the upcoming FOMC meeting 02:50 – The initial unemployment claims for the week ending October 19 were reported at 227,000 03:17 – The National Association of Realtors reported a decline in existing home sales for the month of September, as well as reporting a decline of 3.5% in year-over-year existing home sales for September   04:25 – Comments on earnings; the S&P 500 reporting season has been ‘tricky' so far, with more than 12% of the stocks moving at least 10% on earnings day 07:28 – Based on the Beige Book release, we hear remarks on what we can expect to hear during the upcoming FOMC meeting 10:31 – Comments on the bond market being ‘spooked', as we anticipate a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, yet preparing for the 2025 rate cut projections11:25 – Unusual forecasting from the MOVE Index as option prices show treasury yields for all maturities are projected to increase about 18 basis points higher following the presidential election14:15 – Final thoughts and assumptions on next week's economic news such as the Employment Situation, Consumer Spending, PCE Inflation, etc. Additional ResourcesKey Questions: The Yield Curve Has Un-inverted. Now What? | Key Private BankKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into the initial unemployment claims, rate cuts, the upcoming November FOMC meeting, the earnings market, and the bond market. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities01:34 – The initial unemployment claims for the week ending October 12 were reported at 241,00003:45 – Predictions on if The Federal Reserve will issue another rate cut before the end of 2025 06:02 – Attention and anticipation are increasing for the November FOMC; Based on recent economic reports the market does not have high hopes for a rate cut of more than 25 basis point cut11:07 – Remarks on the earnings market and its continued success 15:11 – Comments on how this election season is affecting the bond market16:21 – Final thoughts sharing where you should be investing Additional ResourcesKey Questions: The Yield Curve Has Un-inverted. Now What? | Key Private BankKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on recent market and economic data, including an analysis of the September employment report, the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes and the latest inflation and unemployment claims data. The discussion covers the potential impact of these developments on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, as well as the outlook for the equity and fixed income markets. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeSteve Hoedt, Head of Equities01:52 – Remarks on the labor market, FOMC meeting minutes, and inflation 06:57 – Comments on the Fed meeting minutes and its impact on the bond market 10:13 – Comments on the equities market and predictions for volatility and earnings seasonAdditional ResourcesKey Questions: The Yield Curve Has Un-inverted. Now What? | Key WealthKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn