Podcasts about financial stability review

We live in an increasingly uncertain world. But what are the economic and financial implications of such turbulent times? What does it mean for Europe's banking and non-bank sectors, companies, households, and government finances? And how can Europe navigate such volatility? Our host Paul Gordon discusses these questions and more with expert John Fell in the latest episode of The ECB Podcast. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 22 May 2025 and recorded on 16 May 2025. In this episode: 01:50 Geopolitical developments and global financial imbalances How did markets react to the high level of uncertainty? 05:10 Safe havens What are safe havens? What happened to US government bonds? 09:08 Europe's reaction Can Europe afford the increased spending in security and defense? What happens to other structural challenges? 13:18 Potential unexpected consequences What positive benefits can defence spending bring? Can it boost growth? What are the solutions to instabilities that might bring? 16:33 Our guest's hot tip John shares his hot tip with our listeners. Further readings: Financial Stability Review, May 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/index.en.html Our guest's hot tip: When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management by Roger Lowenstein https://www.amazon.de/-/en/When-Genius-Failed-Long-Term-Management/dp/0375758259 European Central Bank www.ecb.europa.eu

How worried should Europe be about financial stability at a time of geopolitical and policy uncertainty and rising global trade tensions? As we mark the 20th anniversary of our Financial Stability Review, our host Paul Gordon discusses the risks with expert John Fell in the latest episode of The ECB Podcast. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 25 November 2024 and recorded on 18 November 2024. In this episode: 01:08: How worried about financial stability should we be in Europe? 03:37: The risk profile shift from inflation to growth: can it expose us to other kinds of risk? 06:50: Europe's growth and productivity concerns: what role does finance play? 11:19: What are the risk findings related to the rise of passive investing in equity markets? 16:23: Twenty years of the ECB's Financial Stability Review – how effective has it been? 19:47: Guest's hot tip Financial stability expert John Fell shares his hot tip with our listeners. Further reading: Financial Stability Review, November 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/index.en.html The future of European competitiveness: Report by Mario Draghi https://commission.europa.eu/topics/strengthening-european-competitiveness/eu-competitiveness-looking-ahead_en Ray Dalio's “Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order” https://www.amazon.de/-/en/Principles-Dealing-Changing-World-Order/dp/1982160276 European Central Bank www.ecb.europa.eu

De Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) waarschuwt voor de mogelijkheid dat we in een 'AI-bubbel' zitten. Volgens de ECB kan die bubbel knappen zodra AI-bedrijven zoals Nvidia en Microsoft niet meer aan de verwachtingen van beleggers voldoen. Niels Kooloos vertelt erover in deze Tech Update.  In de Financial Stability Review van de ECB, die twee keer per jaar verschijnt, wordt er vooral gewezen naar de enorme koersstijgingen van AI-bedrijven. Aandelen-indexen zoals de S&P500 bereiken daardoor steeds nieuwe recordhoogten. Doordat die stijging voornamelijk door een klein aantal bedrijven wordt veroorzaakt, is het risico op grote indexdalingen groter. Daarnaast kunnen hoge koersen volgens de ECB ook wijzen op te veel optimisme onder beleggers. Zodra bedrijven op een gegeven moment niet meer aan de verwachtingen voldoen, kan de bubbel knappen. Verder in deze Tech Update: Het Britse Lagerhuis wil Elon Musk op het matje roepen over de rol van X tijdens de rellen in het Verenigd Koninkrijk van afgelopen zomer See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What does the rapid advance of AI mean for our financial system? And how is financial stability affected by geopolitical risk? Our host Stefania Secola puts these questions to expert John Fell in The ECB Podcast's regular look at financial stability in the euro area. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 17 May 2024 and recorded on 10 May 2024. In this episode: 01:01 – How stable is our financial system right now? Our latest financial stability assessment is more positive, but just how resilient is our financial system to shocks? 04:56 – What concerns does geopolitical risk raise? How can geopolitical risk affect markets, banks and non-banks like investment funds, and what can financial institutions do to manage it? 09:55 – How can AI help the financial system? Artificial intelligence offers promising ways to improve efficiency, customer service and risk management. 13:32 – Can AI be a source of systemic risk? Widespread use of AI tools and reliance on a small number of suppliers could lead to financial stability risks. 19:13 – Our guest's hot tip Financial stability expert John Fell shares his hot tip with our listeners. Further reading: Financial Stability Review, May 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/index.en.html Turbulent times: geopolitical risk and its impact on euro area financial stability (special feature A) https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/ecb.fsr202405~7f212449c8.en.html#toc33 The rise of artificial intelligence: benefits and risks for financial stability (special feature B) https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/ecb.fsr202405~7f212449c8.en.html#toc34 The ECB Podcast: When the yin meets the yang: resilience in gloomy times, December 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod231202_episode74.en.html European Central Bank www.ecb.europa.eu

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the ECB is warning investors aren't taking geopolitical risks into account nearly enough.But first in China, we are getting reports that Beijing is developing a plan to save their housing markets and SOE developers by having the state buy huge numbers of unsold properties to boost demand. It is a sign of desperation. What wouldn't go wrong? Millions of properties partly occupied are surely likely to give an enhanced sense of rot in the sector, while enriching the developers. The future for such a policy looks bleak indeed.Under the proposal, local state-owned enterprises would be asked to help purchase inventory from distressed developers at steep discounts using loans provided by state banks, Bloomberg reported on yesterday. Hong Kong shares of developers who will benefit from the "market clearing" zoomed again yesterday.In the US, housing starts rose in April from March but are still lower than year-ago levels, and that year-ago standard is not high. Previously we have seen stronger residential building consent levels but they are falling on a prior month- and prior year-basis too. The new home construction sector is falling back into line with the general real estate resale market with tepid demand at best.But that weakness is not reflected in their labour market. The actual number of jobless claims fell last week to 197,000 which was a slightly smaller fall than expected. It is interesting how expectations for rising labour pressure seemed to have turned around.And the real state of retailing in the US can be tracked by the activity of their largest retailers - and the largest is Walmart. They said Q1-2024 sales levels were strong, growing far more than inflation.Most serious analysts see the US economy expanding by +2% in 2024. But the AtlantaFed's GDPNow model reckons it is expanding nearly twice as fast as that, currently running at a 3.6% expansion, real.In one region, the US Philly Fed factory survey turned from a minor positive to a minor negative in May, basically because of a pullback in new orders. But also intriguing is the holding high of survey perceptions of business conditions. They seem confident about the future, very confident.Industrial production in the US was little changed in April, taking seven of the past twelve months as expansions, five as contractions. But most of the expansions, as small as they have been, are in the more recent half. And that has eaten into the year-on-year deficit, so it is now only -0.4%.In its latest Financial Stability Review, the ECB says investors are likely to be jolted by negative election surprises in 2024 that will weigh on financial stability. They reckon investors are blind to the sudden shifts in sentiment that geopolitical tensions can drive. And the extra spending they are having to do on the security from is likely to put future strain on European public finances they noted.In Australia, the April labour force data saw the jobless rate rise to 4.1% from 3.9% in March. (NZ was 4.3% in March.) That means 593,000 of their 14.9 mln labour force are without work. Full-time employment fell by -6100, part-time employment rose by +44,600. It was tougher in NSW where full-time employment fell -16,300 and part-time employment only rose +13,100.We have previously noted that financial markets had started pricing in a chance of interest rate rises from the RBA. A lowish chance, admittedly. But now we can note that they seem to have abandoned those bets - even though the consensus seem to be that the short-term Aussie Budget won't be especially inflation-friendly.More globally, the copper price has breached US$11,000 and an all-time high and now we are into the crazy world where short sellers are being squeezed, and having to buy their way out of the frenzy which bids up the price further.You may recall we reported a sharp rise in bulk cargo freight rates last week. Well, it was temporary and they have now fallen back to the prior week's level now. But containerised cargo rates are still rising as fast as they did last week, up another +11% this week and are now double year-ago levels. All this is driven by outbound-from-China rates roiled by the persistent Canal and security problems.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.38% and up +2 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today down -US$10 from yesterday at US$2379/oz.Oil prices are up +US$1 today to just under US$79/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is up +50 USc, now just on US$83/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today with a slight easing from yesterday at just on 61.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up at 91.6 AUc and a new one month high. Against the euro we are unchanged at 56.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 70.2 and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,946 down a very minor -0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.6%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Listen to Australian and world news, and follow trending topics with SBS News Podcasts. The RBA's Financial Stability Review painted a benign picture of the economy, but with ongoing risks. Rhayna Bosch speaks with Shane Oliver from AMP for more, plus SBS Finance Editor Ricardo Gonçalves discusses the day's market action with Mahjabeen Zaman from ANZ.

Listen to Australian and world news, and follow trending topics with SBS News Podcasts. The RBA's Financial Stability Review painted a benign picture of the economy, but with ongoing risks. Rhayna Bosch speaks with Shane Oliver from AMP for more, plus SBS Finance Editor Ricardo Gonçalves discusses the day's market action with Mahjabeen Zaman from ANZ.

How are financial markets reacting to higher rates, a sluggish economy and geopolitical tensions? Should we worry about property markets? Our host Stefania Secola puts these questions to financial stability expert John Fell on The ECB Podcast. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 2 December 2023 and recorded on 27 November 2023. In this episode: 01:08 – Financial markets' optimism is put to the test How are financial markets reacting to the new environment of high interest rates, a sluggish economy and rising geopolitical tensions? 06:00 – The conundrum of banks' increasing profits and stagnant valuations Banks' profits are at multi-year highs, yet their valuations haven't changed much. What factors explain this? 10:31 – Real estate markets are a source of concern Residential and commercial property markets are feeling the impact of higher interest rates. What are the implications for banks and financial stability? 16:06 – The yin and the yang of financial stability As the credit cycle turns, and with several vulnerabilities unravelling, can resilience compensate? 18:22 – Conclusion Additional material: Financial Stability Review, November 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/html/index.en.html FSR Box 5 on Euro area bank fundamentals, valuations and cost of equity https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/html/ecb.fsr202311~bfe9d7c565.en.html#toc27 Special feature B on Real estate markets in an environment of high financing costs https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/html/ecb.fsr202311~bfe9d7c565.en.html#toc40 The ECB Podcast: Financial stability and bank runs, June 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod230607_episode60.en.html European Central Bank www.ecb.europa.eu

We talk to the Governor of the Central Bank, Gabriel Makhlouf on the publication of the bank's Financial Stability Review today.

Going over the headlines from the Reserve Bank's Financial Stability Review. DC and JB also talk about Australian house prices and interest rates across the ditch.If you have any questions or things you'd like to hear us talk about, get in touch with us at david@squirrel.co.nz or John@squirrel.co.nz. The opinions expressed in this podcast are not financial advice, or a recommendation of any financial product. Any commentary provided are personal views and are not necessarily representative of the opinions of Squirrel. As always, we recommend seeking professional investment or mortgage advice before taking any action. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the sudden Middle-East explosion is likely to put safe-haven assets back in the spotlight this week.But first, China said its giant foreign exchange reserves were little-changed in August. They don't provide transparency of which currencies they hold them in, but we do get some of that from the US data which shows Chinese holdings of US debt is about US$800 bln (25% of the Chinese holdings) and falling. That means the Chinese hold about US$2.4 tln of other country debt. Many will be rogue nations. The Chinese fx reserves now have high risk attached to them, and will become an increasing problem for them (not to mention the debtors).Hong Kong and southern China are bracing under Typhoon Koinu. Their stock market will be among many institutions not opening this morning, perhaps all day.In India, their central bank kept its key policy rate unchanged at 6.5% as expected on Friday but said it would keep liquidity tight using bond sales to bring inflation closer to its 4% target and this focus on bond selling was not expected. Indian CPI inflation is currently running at 6.8%. It didn't release details of what it expected to sell, but is was suddenly active and that drove benchmark bond yields sharply higher, up 13 bps yesterday, the most since August last year, to close at 7.34%.In Japan, household spending unexpected rose more than expected in August from July (+3.9%). It might still be lower than a year ago, but the month-on-month rise impressed financial markets.In the US, there has been a positive 'surprise' from their labour market in September. We had suggested the expected +170,000 gain might have an upside, but no-one expected gains as strong as the +336,000 (sa) delivered. Nor the big upwards revision for August (up from +187,000 to +227,000).These are the seasonally adjusted headline numbers, but as regular readers know we look at the actual unadjusted survey results. And they show actual payrolls rose +585,000 in September (+394,000 in August) to now be at 157.0 mln people on employer payrolls and a new record high. Looking deeper to include the unincorporated self-employed, there are now 161.7 mln in their employed labour force. Only +29,900 of this monthly increase was for part-time work.If there are any downsides, they include that their jobless rate was unchanged from 3.8%, their participation rate made no progress at 62.8%, and their weekly earnings were up +3.75% from a year ago, little premium to inflation's 3.65%.US vehicle sales rose to an annualised rate of 15.7 mln in September according to updated NADA data. And there seems to be "significant progress" in union negotiations with the carmakers. The carmakers seem to be caving quickly now.US consumer credit data actually fell in August when a small rise was anticipated. Overall it fell by -US$15.6 bln, driven by a sharper -US$30.3 bln fall in car and student loans, to US$3.7 tln. That was offset to some extent by a +14.6 bln rise in credit card debt (to US$1.25 tln).It now appears more likely that another US Fed rate hike will be coming soon. A hot labour market and good pay and conditions increases will be seen as fueling inflation by the regulators. They will feel they need to get ahead of these pressures. Bond yields are rising again. The global geopolitical situation will have a say too.And it wasn't only the US's labour market that turned in a much-better-than-expected result. The Canadians did too. They expected a +20,000 gain in employment in September but delivered a +64,000 gain and they also upgraded their August data sharply. But in Canada, it was part-time work that drove most of their gains.This is a holiday weekend in Canada, their Thanksgiving Day and they will be closed tomorrow (NZT). It will also be a Federal holiday in the US, Columbus Day, but that has fading recognition and is not actually a holiday in many states. The bond market may be closed tomorrow, but their stock market will be open.This coming week will bring the US CPI for September on Friday NZT. A 3.6% rate is expected, down fractionally from August's 3.7%.In Australia, the RBA has been looking at household financial stress in their latest Financial Stability Review. They say early indicators show that financial pressures have increased and the incidence of severe financial stress has increased but remains low. The group of borrowers at higher risk of falling into arrears on their mortgage remains small.Also falling are world food prices. They may not have fallen in September from August, but they are -11% lower than year ago levels. The drop would have been more if it wasn't for sharply higher sugar prices. Dairy prices are down -25% in a year (as the GDT auctions confirmed), and global meat prices are lower too. Grain prices are -15% lower than a year ago. These are the changes for producers, not consumers. Food prices should not be driving inflation.The UST 10yr yield starts today up +2 bps from yesterday at 4.80% on the implications of the strong US labour data. The new conflict between Israel and Gaza may well add to risks this week however. The price of gold will start today at just on US$1833/oz and up +US$4 from Saturday. Although that is down -US$17 from a week ago, it would not be surprising to see this price rise sharply from the Gaza conflict explosion.Oil prices have stabilised lower at just under US$82/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is just on US$84/bbl. These are five-week lows and are -US$8 lower in a week. But the new Middle-East conflict may well change these levels when trading resumes.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 59.9 USc and a very minor slip from Saturday. Against the Aussie we are marginally firmer, now at 93.9 AUc although up +½c in a week. Against the euro we are unchanged at 56.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 70 which is actually little-changed in a week.The bitcoin price starts the new week at US$27,926 which is up a very minor +0.1% from where we left it on Saturday. From a week ago it is up +4.0%. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very low at just under +/-0.7%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

How stable is our financial system? And what risks do we see for banks and property markets? Our host Katie Ranger delves into this topic with financial stability expert John Fell on The ECB Podcast. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 7 June 2023 and recorded on 2 June 2023. In this episode: 01:45 – Looking back at the last six months What is a positive thing that has happened during the last six months in the financial sector, and what events are worrying? 04:58 – How the bank failures and takeovers in the United States and Switzerland have affected euro area banks Why were some of these events a surprise, and how much impact have they had on euro area banks? 10:20 – Lessons learnt from the banking turmoil What issues has the turmoil raised, what lessons can be learnt from these events, and why did the speed and scale of bank runs stand out? 14:13 – Real estate markets Which way are housing markets going after the long boom cycle? 19:52 – Our guest's hot tip Our guest, John Fell, shares two film recommendations with our listeners. Additional material: Financial Stability Review, May 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/html/index.en.html The ECB Podcast: Hacktivists, ransoms and cyberwar – threats for the financial system? December 2022 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod221206_episode46.en.html The ECB Podcast: Is financial stability at risk in these stormy times? November 2022 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod221124_episode45.en.html European Central Bank www.ecb.europa.eu You can also listen to The ECB Podcast on SoundCloud, Spotify, Deezer, Stitcher, YouTube, Amazon Music and many more pod.link/ecbpodcast

The Reserve Bank's Financial Stability Review is a document that does not get much attention from the public because most of the time they tell us it is going well. Yet, the report published this week has important warning lights flashing. This episode is supported by Economic Research Southern Africa and the NWU Business School. Errors and omissions are my own.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news today is a holiday in many countries, including China and India, and a number of European countries.This week is set to be busy on the global economic front, with a number of key events scheduled. Locally, all eyes will be on Wednesday's labour market report for March. Analysts are expecting little-change with the jobless rate staying at 3.5%. The same day there is a dairy auction. And the same day the RBNZ releases its Financial Stability Review. Later in the week, investors will closely follow the US labour report, and before that both the US Fed and the ECB will update their monetary policy settings. The central banks in Australia, Brazil, Malaysia, and Norway will decide on interest rates, while inflation rates will be released for the Euro Area, Italy, the Philippines, Switzerland, South Korea, Indonesia, and the Netherlands. Finally, PMIs are due from the US, India, Canada, Italy, South Korea, and Russia this week.But first in the US, their central bank faulted itself over the weekend for failing to “take forceful enough action” to address growing risks at Silicon Valley Bank ahead of the lenders collapse, one which raised turmoil across the global banking industry. It is a brutal self-review, reflecting very poorly on supervision by the San Francisco Fed. But behind it all was a 2018 roll-back of post GFC rules, handicapping regulators. Another US agency also released their review as well. The Fed said it will revisit the range of rules that apply to banks with more than US$100 bln in assets, including stress testing and liquidity requirements.Confidence in American financial institutions by American is currently falling, although it isn't yet down to the 2011 or 2008/09 levels.But a lack of confidence has killed another US bank, the regional (California) First Republic Bank. The FDIC has taken it over, firing all the senior management and wiping out all its equity investors. JPMorgan Chase and PNC are among the likely bidders to take over its carcass, a valuable regional market position.Staying in the US, their PCE inflation came in with its smallest increase since July 2022 with this inflation measure up +4.2% from a year ago, and running at a rate of under +2% in March from February. This data will be influential at the Fed.Perhaps the sense of control returning to inflation is helping the mood, despite angst about banks. The widely-watched University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey improved in April with the biggest recovery in the 'current situation'.Also improving, but more sharply, the Chicago PMI jumped in April from its weak 2023 first quarter. It is still contracting, but only barely now. It wasn't an improvement that anyone expected.In China, it is Golden Week, a week-long public holiday where a lot rests on healthy retail shopping. Chinese economic data releases will be few this week.And staying in China, their steel exports are surging, up +50% from year-ago levels. But this is not a good sign. Rather it is a sign that the Chinese post-pandemic recovery is in trouble. Prices for industrial materials are plunging, with steel near a five-year low. The Chinese economy is slowing quite quickly now resulting in supply gluts. Prices had been on the rise since the end of last year in anticipation of an economic recovery after China abandoned its zero-COVID policy, but the expected growth isn't coming. Chinese producers with excess supply are ramping up exports, depressing prices globally.Confirming the post-recovery wobbles, their official factory PMI contracted in April following three months of expansion. It was an unexpected retreat. Their official services PMI is still expanding however at a healthy clip. What won't help their manufacturing sector is their tough new rules about "national security' which are being expanded to include anything Beijing doesn't like. It will be hard for foreign investors to risk getting caught up in that. Some already have and it can get ugly quickly (not unlike being invested in Russia).Late Friday the Bank of Japan issued its Monetary Policy Review and made few changes. But in a light-handed way, new Governor Ueda did signal that change is coming, now that inflation is embedding above 2%. Their very loose monetary policies are now under review even if the regulator still isn't fully convinced that a virtuous cycle of wage growth and price hikes is working.Meanwhile, Japanese retail sales came in +7.2% higher in March that year ago levels, better than the +5.8% expected and almost matching the February burst. Industrial production wasn't as strong however.In the past we have noted the Chinese concerns about food security. Well Japan is waking up to them as well, especially after seeing what is happening in Ukraine and it is increasingly concerned about Chinese expansionist activities in its own neighborhood. If New Zealand get punished by China for not toeing the Beijing line, it appears that Japan may become a more stable alternative. Apparently, Japan sources only 38% of its own food from domestic supplies, the lowest level among G7 nations.While our house prices are generally falling and becoming more affordable, in Australia they are going the other way. House prices there rose at a +10% annual rate in March and a +8.5% annualised rate in April. In Sydney, the rises were even faster. Lack of supply, the interest rate pause and booming immigration is fueling this market. They also are suffering through a very severe rental crisis as well.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.43%, and down -11 bps from this time Friday but most of that fall happened Saturday NZT. The price of gold will start the week at US$1991/oz and very little-changed from week-ago levels.But oil prices have recovered their Friday drop to be just over US$76.50/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is just on US$80/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is marginally firmer against the USD and now at 61.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are firmer too at 93.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up marginally at 56.1 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at 69.9 and actually little-changed since Saturday.The bitcoin price is still meandering today, although back up to US$29,620 and up +1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has stayed modest at +/- 1.4%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news a coming car crash may be a literal one.First up today in China, their March car sales were strong. But they may have been at the expense of future sales because car makers are offering deep discounts to buyers. The fierce price cutting is endemic, and profits will be few. Some key suppliers are now reporting that orders have just suddenly dried up. The industry body is calling for an end to discounts, but with planned production expansion, that seems unlikely. It is a manufacturing sector that might wobble soon. After all, sales are now running -15% lower than their 2017 peak.But we now have the private Caixin services PMI for China and that has confirmed the earlier reported strong rise in the official services PMI - showing a robust expansion there. It's the fastest pace of expansion in activity since November 2020, and comes with strong new services order intakes following the end of their pandemic restrictions. New orders rose at the fastest pace in 28 months, with new export business expanding at the quickest rate since the series began in September 2014. The contrast with the US is worth noting, but to be fair the US expansion has been going on for very much longer and without the volatility.In the US, there were no surprises from the March non-farm payrolls report on the giant US labour market. The headline seasonally adjusted rise was +236,000 and very similar to the +240,000 expected. But in fact, the actual (not seasonally adjusted) payrolls rose +520,000 to an employed labour force of 154.7 mln and a remarkable +4.1 more people employed that in March 2022. This data is from employer payroll records. And it we look at the household survey, one that includes self employment, +605,000 more people were in work in March than February and the total employed workforce grew to 166.8 mln (again actual, not seasonally adjusted). None of this suggests the US labour force is wobbling yet.That is not to suggest there aren't stresses; there are, especially in the tech sector. US-based employers announced 270,000 job cuts in the March quarter, the highest first quarter total since 2020. 90,000 of these were in March alone.US initial jobless claims are hard to read this week. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to 207,000 in the week ending April 1st from the prior week. However the previous week's data was revised up in their seasonally adjusted series and that got all the headlines. There are now 1.845 mln people on these benefits, a small decline, but not as low as the 1.7 mln expected.Maybe because employment is strong, one area that is doing much better is car sales. New vehicle sales volume is expected to have a +5.7% year-over-year rise for Q1 2023.  March is expected to see an +8.6% year-over-year sales volume rise. This performance has put 2023 on track to hit a 15 mln annual rate, a steep uptick from last year's 14.1 million. Units sold in March hit 1.366 million. But at these levels the US vehicle market is a lot smaller than the Chinese market. And Americans don't seem to be taking out car loans any faster, despite the uptick in sales locally.The next big piece if US data is due on Thursday this week (NZT) and that is their March CPI. It is widely expected to come in at under a 4% annualised rate in March from February, a slower pace the the prior month's 5% rate. But it is still well above the target the US Fed wants, so the actual result will be keenly watched.American consumer debt levels rose an insignificant +US$15.3 bln in February and this was less than the +US$20 bln expected, but slightly more than the seasonally low January rise. Still, on a per capita basis, Americans have US$14,000 of non-housing debt, which is high when you compare that to New Zealand's NZ$2,560 per capita. The tables are turned on housing debt of course.The US financial stress index has returned to its low pre-SVB levels. Meanwhile, an index measuring global supply chain pressure has not only eased suddenly, it has retreated to its lowest level since 2009.But all bets are off in the giant American commercial property market. Bloomberg has calculated that a wall of US$1.5 tln of commercial property debt is due to roll over in the next 20 months, just when banks have lost their appetite for funding such debt. And you can understand why; Morgan Stanley reckon office and retail property valuations could fall as much as 40% from peak to trough, increasing the risk of defaults. And it is the smaller regional banks that hold much of this debt. They are unlikely to want to keep those exposures, and the big banks are likely to eschew them too.From the US to Japan, real estate investment trusts that focus on office property have taken a hit from fears that financing will be harder to come by. The S&P 1500 Office REITs Sub-Industry Index, which tracks major office property REITs in the US, fell to 53 at one point in late March. It was down more than 20% from the end of 2022 and plumbed its lowest point since 2009. As of Thursday, the index still languished under 60. This is an international trend that is yet to arrive in New Zealand.North of the border, Canada has delivered a better-than-expected March jobs report, essentially driven by much better full-time employment data.Also much better than expected is the closely-watched Ivey factory PMI for Canada, reporting an improvement that we didn't see in the earlier Markit version. The Ivey version rise was based on expanding employment and inventory levels.In India, their central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 6.5% which was a surprise because a +25 bps rise was expected. India's consumer inflation likely eased in March to 5.8% thanks to softer food price rises, dipping below the RBI's upper tolerance limit, and this may have encouraged them to hold off.In Germany industrial production surged +2% month-on-month in February and beating market forecasts of a meagre +0.1% gain. Production in vehicle manufacturing, which is the largest one in Germany, increased sharply. Industrial output went also up for both capital goods and consumer goods.Australia posted another very large trade surplus in February for both goods and services. The surplus swelled by +AU$2.6 bln to AU$13.9 bln, the third largest surplus on record. A key reason was that imports retreated in the month, a shift which was expected, but the size of the fall was much larger than anticipated. The outsized February surplus takes their annual surplus to more than AU$145 bln, equivalent to +5.9% of their GDP.And their central bank has released its Financial Stability Review. In it they say about 15% of borrowers are forecast to have "negative spare cash flow". About 9% are expected to run out of savings buffers by the middle of the year, even if they slash spending, unless rates fall. Specifically they say (p41) "... there is a group of borrowers who, even if they cut back sharply on non-essential spending, will be at risk of exhausting their savings buffers within six months unless they can make other adjustments to their income or essential spending. ... those on lower incomes and recent first home buyers are over-represented in this group."Global food prices are still falling. The FAO March index posted the twelfth consecutive monthly decline since reaching its peak one year ago and down more than -20%. The decline in March was led by drops in cereal, vegetable oil and dairy price prices, while those of sugar and meat rose.The global economy is set to grow at roughly 3% over the next five years which would be the slowest pace since 1990, the head of the IMF has said. Her heads-up comes as they prepare to release an update to their World Economic Outlook later today.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.41%, and up +12 bps from Thursday. The price of gold is at US$2008 and unchanged from Saturday's level. It won't start trading again until Asian markets reopen later today.And oil prices are little-changed at just under US$80.50/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is still just over US$84.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is unchanged against the USD and now at 62.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are still at 93.7 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 57.3 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is at 70.4 and unchanged from Saturday.The bitcoin price is little-changed again today, now at US$27,935 and virtually unchanged from Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been virtually non-existant at less than +/-0.1%.And we should note that the American subsidiary of Binance, the firm being challenged by US Federal regulators is struggling to find a bank to handle its customers' cash after the failure of Signature Bank last month, the Wall Street Journal reported. Previously, the deposits were sent to either Signature Bank or Silvergate Capital, both seen as crypto-friendly banks. However, after both failed, Binance is struggling to find a bank willing to engage with themPlease note that New Zealand is on holiday today for the long Easter weekend.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Are cyberattacks a threat to financial stability? Why do hackers target financial institutions? Our host Katie Ranger delves into this topic with financial stability expert John Fell on The ECB Podcast. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily of the European Central Bank. Published on 6 December 2022 and recorded on 28 November 2022. In this episode: 01:24 – Are cyberattacks a threat to financial stability? What cyberattacks mean for financial stability, and why the financial sector should worry about them. 06:30 – Why are we looking at cyber risk now? Why we covered the topic of cyber risk in our Financial Stability Review, and why cyberattacks have become a source of concern to financial institutions. 09:06 – What kind of cyberattacks did we look into? Who is behind cyberattacks, and which sectors and regions are the most at risk. 12:40 – Tracking cyberattacks and shielding against them Why it's difficult to keep track of cyberattacks, and what can be done to make the financial system more resilient. 18:56 – Our guest's hot tip Our guest, John Fell, shares a film recommendation with our listeners. Additional material: Financial Stability Review, November 2022 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/html/ecb.fsr202211~6383d08c21.en.html Towards a framework for assessing systemic cyber risk, 15 November 2022 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/special/html/ecb.fsrart202211_03~9a8452e67a.en.html The ECB Podcast: Financial stability amid Russia's war in Ukraine, June 2022 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod220601_episode34.en.html The ECB Podcast: Bicycles, bitcoin and zombie firms: financial stability in the wake of the third wave, June 2021 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod210616_episode17.en.html The ECB Podcast: A cyclist's guide to financial stability amid a pandemic, November 2020 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod201125_episode12.en.html European Central Bank www.ecb.europa.eu You can also listen to The ECB Podcast on SoundCloud, Spotify, Deezer, Stitcher, YouTube, Amazon Music and many more pod.link/ecbpodcast

How is financial stability faring in today's challenging environment? What risks do we see for financial markets and real estate? Our host Katie Ranger talks to financial stability experts Tamarah Shakir and John Fell on The ECB Podcast. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 24 November 2022 and recorded on 21 November 2022. In this episode: 01:14 – What is happening in financial markets? What risks lie ahead for financial markets, and what factors are responsible for the emerging vulnerabilities in this sector. 05:21 – Governments' support measures and financial stability What impact country's support measures and rising debt levels might have on the financial system, and how targeted fiscal policies can help reduce financial stability risks. 09:46 – What's going on in the housing market? Why house prices are rising more slowly and how higher interest rates are affecting people's ability to pay their mortgages. 13:25 – Non-bank financial institutions and financial stability Why we are monitoring developments in the non-banks sector, and what risks they might pose for the financial system. 17:40 – Our guests' hot tips Our financial experts John Fell and Tamarah Shakir share their book recommendations. Additional material: Financial Stability Review, November 2022 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/html/ecb.fsr202211~6383d08c21.en.html The ECB Podcast: Financial stability amid Russia's war in Ukraine, 1 June 2022 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod220601_episode34.en.html The ECB Podcast: Bicycles, bitcoin and zombie firms: financial stability in the wake of the third wave, June 2021 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod210616_episode17.en.html The ECB Podcast: A cyclist's guide to financial stability amid a pandemic, November 2020 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod201125_episode12.en.html European Central Bank www.ecb.europa.eu You can also listen to The ECB Podcast on SoundCloud, Spotify, Deezer, Stitcher, YouTube, Amazon Music and many more https://pod.link/ecbpodcast

We talk to Central Bank Governor Gabriel Makhlouf on the publication of it's Financial Stability Review.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news still driven out of the United States.High and persistent inflation is the greatest near-term risk to the American economy and financial system, the US Federal Reserve said in its semi-annual Financial Stability Review. It also warned of rising instability in the trading of American government debt. An unexpected future shock could amplify existing vulnerabilities and shadow banks - leveraged financial firms other than regulated banks - are the main risk they see.All this comes as the American prepare to vote in the mid-term elections. All the signs are that the Democrats will lose control of both houses of Congress, and making the Biden Administration's final two years very hard to govern effectively. Fortunately, they have used the first two years to install a very effective economic repair. The new Congress will focus on its culture wars.Also over the weekend US non-farm payrolls rose more than the conservative forecasts, up +261,000 s.a. in the headline result and well above the expected +200,000.But as regular readers will recall, we prefer to watch the 'actual' numbers and those rose +1,172,000 in October from September and taking their paid workforce to a massive 154.3 mln, and easily its largest ever. That is +1 mln more than the 'seasonally adjusted' numbers report. The pay for +1 mln extra people is likely to be highly stimulating and power American consumption for some time to come. That will also be adding to inflationary pressures, bolstering demand. They have a paid workforce +3.4% larger than this time last year.By any measure these are strong numbers. Their participation rate rose to a modest 62.2%. As might be expected, less than 20% of their jobless are 'long term unemployed' which is consistent with a very strong labour market.It is now a chicken-or-egg issue going forward. Will the new expanded employment drive an economic expansion? Or will a stuttering economic expansion make the higher employment unsustainable? Seemingly endless 'warnings' that the US economy is running out of steam have so far proven unfounded. But there is one cloud in today's US jobs numbers - the vast increase in paid workers were at hourly rates that rose slightly slower than inflation.North of the border, Canada also reported a strong and strengthening jobs market. They expected a +10,000 rise in paid jobs but actually reported +108,300 new jobs - and even more for full-time positions, and a reduction in part-time jobs. Their participation rate is 64.9%.Adding to the positive vibe, Japan's services sector is well on the mend, with it expanding at a faster rate in October. They reported faster growth in activity levels and employment and optimism in that sector is now at all-time highs.In China, they said they are sticking to their zero-Covid policies, dashing hopes of some easing. China says it is still facing complex and severe pandemic outbreaks in the country and with winter approaching they are worrying about the current uptick gaining more momentum. All this is despite rising public and local government pressure to move on from the costly and disruptive policy.China's seemingly endless promises of "reform and opening up' are just pointing out how closed and controlled their economy is, even if they know they do need those economic reforms. Their Party Congress focus on control and security indicates a deep distrust of their own people and market forces. It is hard to see how international companies can have much confidence in supply chains that rely on China after these recent shifts.And in a detail confirming the sidelining and downgrading of the influence of their central bank, the Party has gone after a senior manager there, with a standardised accusation of corruption. Officials with economic experience are now suspect.Singaporean retail sales rose more than expected in September and extending a new positive trend. They are now up +3.2% from August and up more than +11% from year-ago levels.German factory orders fell in September and by more than expected. This extends a recent weakening trend. Export orders are holding these from being even worse.In Australia, their residential rental market is in crisis with vacancy rates at 1% or below in most urban areas. There are reports that some renters were making up to 100 applications for a home unsuccessfully, sometimes after receiving a no-grounds eviction with a set end date. The conditions for widespread social unrest are brewing in these circumstances.And the Australian central bank expects a couple of tough years for Australians, with real wages continuing to fall as inflation persists and unemployment starts to rise. These forecasts are part of their latest Monetary Policy Statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia. They echo their new Government's warnings. "Given the importance of avoiding a price–wage spiral, the board will continue to pay close attention to both the price-setting behaviour of firms and the evolution of labour costs in the period ahead," it warned. They are also concerned that recent jumps in rent, especially in Australia's two biggest cities, might further entrench inflation.The UST 10yr yield started today at 4.16% and unchanged from Saturday. The price of gold will open today at US$1683/oz. This is up +US$8 from this time Saturday.And oil prices start today little-changed from this time Saturday at just over US$91.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just on US$98/bbl.The Kiwi dollar will open today at 59.3 and a +¼c higher than this time Saturday. For the week it is up +1¼c and a strongish revaluation. Against the Australian dollar we have stayed firm at 91.7 AUc and near our highest since April. Against the euro we are up slightly at 59.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 69.7 and our highest since mid September.The bitcoin price is now at US$21,260 and up another +2.4% since Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low however at just on +/- 0.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Inflation is accelerating and there's a war going on in Europe for the first time in a generation.  All issues were tackled by the Central bank of Ireland in its Financial Stability Review yesterday. Director of Financial Stability Vasileios Madouros from the central Bank joined Joe on the show this morning with more details from its review.

How is financial stability doing in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine? What risks are we keeping an eye on, for instance in the crypto-asset and housing markets? Our host Katie Ranger puts these and other questions to our financial stability experts Tamarah Shakir and John Fell on The ECB Podcast. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 1 June 2022 and recorded on 27 May 2022. In this episode: 05:55 – How is financial stability faring in the current uncertain environment? Why financial stability conditions have worsened, what the main causes of this are and how the war is affecting the financial system. 13:54 – How is high inflation affecting financial stability? What impact higher prices are having on the financial system, and how inflation affects both people's ability to repay debts and the financing role of markets. 20:10 – What's going on in the housing market? Why house prices have been rising and what risks might emerge as a result. 24:05 – Why are crypto-assets a risk to financial stability? The current state of crypto-assets, and how other developments might increase the risks they pose to the financial system. 30:02 – Our guests' hot tips Our financial experts John Fell and Tamarah Shakir share their book and podcast recommendations. Additional material: Financial Stability Review, May 2022 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/html/index.en.html The ECB Podcast: Bicycles, bitcoin and zombie firms: financial stability in the wake of the third wave, June 2021 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod210616_episode17.en.html The ECB Podcast: A cyclist's guide to financial stability amid a pandemic, November 2020 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod201125_episode12.en.html European Central Bank www.ecb.europa.eu You can also listen to The ECB Podcast on SoundCloud, Spotify, Deezer, Stitcher, YouTube, Amazon Music and many more: https://pod.link/ecbpodcast

BNM has released 3 reports yesterday namely The 2021 Annual Report, The Economic and Monetary Review 2021, and the Financial Stability Review for Second Half 2021. Economists and analyst are reviewing these reports keenly. Firdaos Rosli, Chief Economist of Malaysian Rating Corporation Berhad (MARC) unpacks the data rich report for us. Image credit: Shutterstock.com

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news China's services sector is stirring again despite some bumps in the road.But first, the OECD has achieved its big reform of how and where multinational companies will be taxed; their BEPS reform. It is an agreement between 136 countries, and brings a reluctant US on board. The deal included a 15% minimum rate for corporations and the main parameters of how much profits of multinationals would be taxed in more countries: 25% of profits over a 10% margin. The bottom line is it should see countries collect around US$ 150 bln in new revenues annually. That will be massive for many countries, and will be felt in the largest corporate boardrooms. In the US, anti-tax Republicans are already lining up to try and neuter it.And the UN-FAO released its September food price data showing another rise in overall prices globally. In nominal terms prices are approaching their highest ever levels achieved first in September 2011. In real terms, they are the highest since 1974 when droughts, an oil crisis and raging inflation all conspired to hit food at the same time.China is still getting its share of adverse weather. 1.75 mln people have been affected by days of flooding and landslides in the normally arid northern Chinese province of Shanxi and these will have a national impact. 120,000 people have been evacuated and more than 17,000 buildings had collapsed. This in turn has affected important national supplies of coal and other minerals. About 60 coal mines, 372 non-coal mines and 14 chemical factories had been forced to close.Staying in China, their services sector is expanding again, and at a moderate pace, and bouncing back from a weak August. At least, that is according to the private Caixin services PMI released over the weekend. Still, it can't hide the general softer trend evident in 2021. And their 'Golden Week' travel activity is down -40% from last year, suppressing service sector enthusiasm in October.However Taiwanese exports impressed again, rising +29% above year-ago levels when a +25% gain was expected. These are now +37% higher than for September 2019. It is a standout export success story.In the US, the expected +500,000 gain to their non-farm payrolls didn't eventuate for September. The headline number was only a +194,000 gain, the smallest rise in 2021 and a big miss.However we may be the only one noting this, but we need to be extra careful of following the herd and using these seasonally adjusted numbers, when perhaps the pandemic twists are screwing around with seasonal adjustment mechanisms.The actual data is far more positive and more consistent with the falling jobless claims data. There are now actually 147.7 mln people employed in the US as at the end of September, up +654,000 from the end of August, and up +5.7 mln from a year ago. That paints quite a different picture than the seasonally adjusted monthly +194,000 gain. The same distortion happened in August. Actual employment is what is important. By this data, US hiring is actually rising, not slowing.Markets sense the under-reporting and still think the Fed will push ahead with its tapering, undeterred.In Canada they reported very positive employment data for September, with a gain of +157,000, and topping both estimates and for August. In Australia, their central bank issued its latest update to its Financial Stability Review. One aspect stands out: it thinks it is only a matter of time before a large bank is crippled by a cyber attack and "the defences of a significant financial institution will be breached". They are also directly concerned about the "risk of excessive borrowing due to low interest rates and rising house prices".The UST 10yr yield opens today at just over 1.61% and up another +1 bps from this time Saturday and a +13 bps rise in a week taking it to its highest in 20 weeks. The price of gold will start today little-changed again at US$1757/oz. Over the past week, the gold price has also changed very little.And oil prices are up +US$1 to just over US$79/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is unchanged at US$82/bbl.The Kiwi dollar opens today unchanged at just on 69.3 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are also unchanged at 94.8 AUc. Against the euro we marginally softer at 59.9 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today unchanged and down just on 73, and right in the middle of the 72-74 range of the past eleven months. It is also unchanged over the past week.The bitcoin price is higher again than this time Saturday, up +1.7% to be now at US$55,269. A week ago it was at US$47,496 so it has risen more than +16% in the past seven days. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/-1.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Friday 8th October 2021 Two cans are being kicked. The US debt ceiling can is being kicked into December, but the issues remain. The gas can has been kicked along by a promise of more fuel from Russia, but isn't Europe's dependency on Russia part of the problem? Meanwhile, the Bank of England's new chief economist is warning of inflation for longer. Is he positioning for a rate rise? NAB's David de Garis talks through the overnight market news, as well as looking ahead to the Financial Stability Review from the RBA today, and tonight's non-farm payrolls numbers in the US. There are plenty of reasons why this should be a strong set of numbers.

Yesterday, the ASX200 gained 0.7% following a better night of trade on Wall Street, with the big banks and Woolworths notching up gains of 1%. Nearly all sectors closed in the green, with tech shares rallying. The only sector to fall was the Energy sector, as the US said it was considering selling oil from its strategic reserves and Russia said it was ready to stabilise the natural gas market. Looking to the US, lawmakers reached a deal on Thursday to increase the debt ceiling in the short-term. The compromise will avoid an unprecendented debt default for now. This helped equities rally, with the Dow rising 300 points, the S&P500 closing 0.8% higher, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq up 1.1%.  Following a positive session on Wall Street, the futures are suggesting the Aussie share market will open 0.46% higher this morning, with the market on track to finish higher for the first time in five weeks. What to watch today:Continue to keep watch of travel and tourism, as well as food and beverage stocks as from Monday the 11th of October, fully vaccinated adults in NSW will enjoy more freedoms as several restrictions are eased as part of the reopening roadmap. In economic news, yesterday, the services sector reading for September edged up 0.1 points to 45.7 from 45.6 in August, which points to the second consecutive month of contraction in the services sector. Today, investors will digest the latest building permits data for August, and the RBA will release its semi-annual Financial Stability Review, with talks that lending and housing are likely to feature prominently.  Companies that are paying their latest dividends include Healius (ASX:HLS), Reliance Worldwide Corporation (ASX:RWC), WiseTech Global (ASX:WTC) and Woolworths (ASX:WOW).The most traded stocks by Bell Direct clients yesterday included Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WTC), its shares fell 7% following the ongoing energy crisis that saw global coal futures tumble yesterday. Another most traded stock was Red 5 (ASX:RED). The gold stock charged about 18% yesterday as the business made further headway at is cornerstone King of the Hills (KOTH) project, where construction is underway on one of Australia's most well-endowed gold assets.The oil price resumed its rally, lifting 1.1% higher to US$78.84 a barrel, now trading back at 7-year high territory. This comes as the market deemed it unlikely that the US would release emergency crude reserves or ban exports to ease tight supplies. The gold price fell following a drop in US weekly initial jobless claims, which boosted treasury yields. Meanwhile, the seaborne iron ore price traded slightly higher, at $118.  Trading ideas:Bell Potter has reiterated its BUY recommendation on software company, Envirosuite (ASX:EVS) with an increased price target of $0.22 (previously $0.20). EVS closed higher yesterday, up about 16% to $0.18, which implies about 19% share price growth.Bullish charting signals have been identified in Red 5 (ASX:RED), Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) and Piedmont Lithium (ASX:PLL) according to Trading Central.

Team realiteit heeft een mol in het bestuur van de ECB, concludeert macro-econoom en BNR-economiecommentator Kees de Kort op basis van de Financial Stability Review. 'Er beginnen tekenen van realiteitsbesef door te dringen, ook in de verslaglegging. Ze spreken van een zekere stabilisatie van de economie, de grote schokken van vorig jaar zijn tot rust aan het komen.'

In its recent BNM’s Financial Stability Review for Second Half 2020 report, Bank Negara has warned that unsold properties in the country have remained at an elevated level as at end-2020. Sim Wie Boon talks to Cha-Ly Koh of Urbanmetry on the issue of overhang, pricing and just what is needed to be done to address the situation we’re in. Image credit: Shutterstock.com

What do cycling and financial stability have in common? How has the pandemic affected the financial system and the economy? What risks lie ahead? Our host Michael Steen discusses these questions and more with economists John Fell and Tamarah Shakir, who analyse financial stability at the ECB. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 25 November 2020 and recorded on 13 November 2020. In this episode: 00:46 – What is financial stability? What financial stability is, what it has in common with cycling, financial instability during the global financial crisis. 05:59 – How has the pandemic affected financial stability? How the coronavirus crisis affected financial stability in March, how the reaction by EU and national policymakers prevented a financial crisis and why financial stability could largely be preserved. 12:05 – How has the coronavirus crisis affected businesses? What the measures taken to protect businesses and households are, how the measures have worked and helped to preserve financial stability. 17:26 – What are the challenges that lie ahead? What the risks for businesses, households and the financial system are, what we need to look out for in the future and what is being done to prevent the risks from materialising. Further reading: Financial Stability Review, November 2020 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/html/ecb.fsr202011~b7be9ae1f1.en.html Special Feature by John Fell and Garry Schinasi in the Financial Stability Review, June 2005, pp. 117-125 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/fsr/financialstabilityreview200506en.pdf European Central Bank www.ecb.europa.eu You can also listen to The ECB Podcast on SoundCloud, Spotify, Deezer, Stitcher, YouTube, Amazon Music and many more: https://pod.link/ecbpodcast

In Episode 21, Nick and Kelvin cover off the latest from their early market indicators showing activity remaining strong.Nick also provides some guidance when interpreting all the different market measures out there, especially important off the back of the latest QV House Price Index data.Meanwhile Kelvin gives his own review of the RBNZ's latest Financial Stability Review, which was released last week, particularly focusing on what it tells us about the property market.And of course the CoreLogic Pain & Gain report for Q1 2020 is now out and available here https://www.corelogic.co.nz/reports/pain-and-gain.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz