Podcasts about AUC

Découvrez l'abonnement "Au Coeur de l'Histoire +" et accédez à des heures de programmes, des archives inédites, des épisodes en avant-première et une sélection d'épisodes sur des grandes thématiques. Profitez de cette offre sur Apple Podcasts dès aujourd'hui ! Écoutez la suite de la vie de Maria Callas, racontée par Virginie Girod qui mêle sa voix aux archives Europe 1. La chanteuse a décroché un contrat à la prestigieuse Scala de Milan, mais souffre de la concurrence d'une rivale : Renata Tebaldi. Lorsque cette dernière tombe malade, Maria Callas la remplace au pied levé. Elle tient sa chance de se distinguer, mais les critiques du lendemain sont assez mauvaises. Malgré ce début mitigé à la Scala, Maria ne se décourage pas. Elle sait qu'elle est née pour être une prima donna. Pour mieux séduire le public, Maria a une obsession : maigrir. Elle commence un régime drastique et perd 35 kg en deux ans. Avec son physique longiligne, Maria Callas devient une icône. Au sommet de son art, elle fait de nombreuses Unes à travers la planète. Elle se produit dans les plus grandes salles du monde entier et enregistre de nombreux disques permettant ainsi au public qui ne va pas à l'opéra de l'écouter malgré tout. Avec le succès, les critiques se font aussi plus acerbes. Au début de l'année 1958, elle quitte une représentation de la Norma à Rome parce qu'un coup de froid enroue ses cordes vocales. On l'accuse d'être une diva insupportable. En 1971, elle divorce et devient l'amante d'Aristote Onassis, un riche armateur. Auprès de lui, elle délaisse sa carrière et décline lentement. Maria perd ses aigus et la richesse de sa voix est dilapidée. Au début des années 1970, la plus grande diva du XXe siècle transmet son art à des élèves de la prestigieuse Julliard School de New York. En 1973, elle fait une tournée de récitals qui est en réalité une tournée d'adieux, et en 1977, Maria Callas décède peu après un malaise. Les raisons de sa mort sont assez mystérieuses, certains évoquent un suicide. Mais peut-on vraiment mourir quand on est la plus mythique des chanteuses lyriques de tous les temps ? Retrouvez Virginie Girod dans Madame Figaro en kiosques le 1er décembre avec un récit inédit. https://madame.lefigaro.fr “Au Cœur de l'Histoire” est un podcast Europe 1 Studio. Thèmes abordés : opéra, Maria Callas, New York, XXe, Pasolini 'Au cœur de l'histoire' est un podcast Europe 1 Studio- Présentation : Virginie Girod - Production : Camille Bichler- Réalisation : Pierre Cazalot- Composition de la musique originale : Julien Tharaud- Rédaction et diffusion : Nathan Laporte- Communication : Kelly Decroix - Visuel : Sidonie Mangin

Vous aimez l'Histoire et les récits de Virginie Girod ? Soutenez-nous en laissant étoiles et commentaires sur votre plateforme d'écoute préférée !

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news central bank bosses have been out warning of inflation and economic stress.But first in the US, their Thanksgiving holiday has brought forward some key data releases. First up, the headline jobless claims numbers came in sharply lower than expected, indicating the American labour market isn't done yet showing its resilience. However we should note that the actual claim levels were higher than the seasonally adjusted levels even if not as high as was expected. There are now 1.65 mln people on these benefits, also quite a jump. But this is only back to September levels.Second, mortgage applications rose marginally last week, but again only with the benefit of seasonal adjustment. Benchmark mortgage interest rates continued to move lower, now to 7.29% plus points, the lowest rate in two months. That is down -15 bps in just one week.Also falling were new durable goods orders in October. After rising a good +4.0% in September, they fell a sharpish -5.4% on October so a net loss overall. Year-on-year they are only up +0.9%. Capital goods orders were up +1.6% however on that basis.Going the other way, a current survey of year-ahead inflation expectations rose to a 7-month high of 4.5% in November, up from the preliminary estimate of 4.4% and above 4.2% in the prior month. That is according to a final reading of the University of Michigan survey. The last actual US CPI reading was at 3.2% in October and the November report is due on December 13 NZT.In Canada, their central bank boss has signaled an end to rate hikes, saying "interest rates may now be restrictive enough to get us back to price stability".But in Australia, their new central bank governor is singing a different tune. She is warning that the inflation challenge they face is increasingly homegrown and demand driven.In China, one of their largest shadow banks warned it's “severely insolvent,” with a debt pile more than two times higher than assets, according to a letter seen by Bloomberg. Liquidity has dried up and the recoverable amount from asset disposals is expected to be low, the company said. China's retail-dominated equity markets are vulnerable to fake news and rumour and authorities are on edge. It never helps when there are also major real stresses.China isn't the only region of financial industry stress. In its Financial Stability Report, the ECB is warning that they too see "early signs of stress".And from left-field, perhaps should note that the price of uranium is soaring again as global demand spikes for clean energy projects. We haven't seen these price levels since 2008. Thermal coal on the other hand is retreating.The UST 10yr yield is little-changed from yesterday, now at 4.43%. The price of gold will start today just on US$1990/oz and down -US$10/oz from this time yesterday.Oil prices have fallen a sharpish -US$2.50 to be just under US$7/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now at US$79.50/bbl. And this is happening after pricing in the OPEC+ production cut extensions expected to come in the weekend, although it now seems to have been delayed a day or so.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 60.7 USc and marginally firmer from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 92.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 55.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just under 69.6.The bitcoin price starts today at US$36,389 and down -2.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been moderate however at just on +/- 2.6%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news China's rapidly changing demographics are weighing heavily on the country.But first, and maybe related, today's dairy auction was a weak one. Prices were only very marginally lower in USD terms, but they fell -2.2% in NZD terms as our currency rose overnight. The key WMP price was up +1.9% in USD terms, but SMP fell a sharpish -3.8% and cheddar cheese fell a whopping -9.7% from the same event two weeks ago. That speaks to extended weakness in foodservice markets, probably in China. That leaves prices -10% lower than last year's level which themselves were -18% lower than the year prior. The long slide continues, hurt by both China's continuing weakness, and the USD's new0-found weakness.Meanwhile, American retail sales are managing to rise at inflation's level however. They were up +3.4% in the latest Redbook survey of bricks & mortar stores on a same-store basis.But things remain weak in America's real estate market with existing home sales down -4.1% in October from September to be -15% lower than year-ago levels. Average prices are inching up however, even if the inventory of unsold properties is growing..The American National Activity Index monitored by the Chicago Fed fell in October to its lowest in seven months. All four major categories they monitor retreated.The AtlantaFed's GDP Now monitor is suggesting American Q4-2023 economic activity is expanding at a +2% rate. It is worth keeping an eye on this indicator; it was one of the few that correctly predicted the strong Q3 gains. It turned out far more positive than most private sector forecasts.In Canada, CPI inflation is easing back now. It came in at 3.1% in October, down from 3.8% in September. It was a larger fall than expected. That means they are getting close to their central bank's target range of 1%-3%.In Hong Kong, the weak Chinese housing market is affecting them too, with a new development offering new homes at prices that are a six year low.As anticipated, China's birth rate reached a new low last year, with the number of newborns falling to 9.6 mln, the first reading below 10 mln since 1950.We should note that EV battery manufacturers are buying much less lithium carbonate, and the price of that raw material continues its sharp retreat. Much like the nickel price we noted earlier in the week. Lithium is down -75% in a year, which was when it peaked. Nickel is down more than -50% in 2023.The UST 10yr yield is little-changed from yesterday, now at 4.43%. The price of gold will start today just on US$2000/oz and up +US$26/oz from this time yesterday. It was last at this level in late October.Oil prices have slipped -50 USc to be just over US$77.50/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now at US$82/bbl. It is probably a weaker mover than it seems given the falling USD.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 60.6 USc and up another +¼c from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +½c at 92.4 AUc. Against the euro we are up +½c too at 55.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 69.6 and a +40 bps rise.The bitcoin price starts today at US$37,286 and virtually unchanged (up +US$17) from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been moderate however at just on +/- 2.0%.The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Binance and its CEO Changpeng Zhao have agreed to plead guilty to criminal and civil charges under a deal worked out with the Justice Department. A fine of more than US$4 bln has also been accepted.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Salvatore Mancuso fue un temido y sangriento líder paramilitar que lleva años extraditado a Estados Unidos. El viernes se convirtió en el primer exjefe de las autodefensas en ser aceptado ante la Jurisdicción Especial de Paz (JEP) que investiga a los militares y exguerrilleros de las Farc. Que llegara a esa instancia tiene que ver con que fue una bisagra entre los paramilitares y la Fuerza Pública en la guerra contra las guerrillas. Y que sus testimonios han salpicado desde expresidentes hasta militares y policías. En el episodio de hoy hablamos de las verdades que le faltan por decir a Mancuso, de quiénes se verían afectados y cuáles otros exparamilitares le piden pista a la JEP para contar su verdad.Para saber más puede leer y oír:Mancuso entra a la JEP por su verdad sobre militares, políticos y empresarios.Mancuso pone la lupa en la impunidad para aliados del paramilitarismo. Las 10 acusaciones más impactantes de Mancuso ante la JEP.La relación con el paramilitarismo: el fantasma que persigue a UribeHuevos Revueltos: el reto de tener a Mancuso como gestor de pazHuevos Revueltos con la herida paramilitar que reabre MancusoSi anda interesado en el Curso de Inmersión de 2024 de La Silla, acá encuentra toda la información.Elija ser Súperamigo. Puede ser parte de nuestra comunidad acá.Un espacio de cuña en Huevos Revueltos puede ser suyo, excepto para contenido político y electoral. Si tiene interés, escriba a socampo@lasillavacia.com. Chequeo de datos: Santiago Rodríguez, periodista de La Silla Vacía. Producción: Sergio García y Fernando Cruz, periodistas de La Silla Vacía.Foto de portada: JEP

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news it seems to be the season for some "shock therapy" - from OpenAI to Argentina.Byt first in the US, this is the lead-up week to their long Thanksgiving holiday weekend, a four-day Thursday-to-Sunday work-break - for many. Wednesday is usually a travel crush day. Thursday (Friday NZT) a quiet family day, and then followed by an all-out retail shopping frenzy, shopping for Christmas gifts traditionally. Economic eyes will be on the retail impulse. Financial market activity is already thinning out in the run-up to the holiday.On Wall Street, all eyes are on the ructions at the ChatGPT firm OpenAI. Overnight, Microsoft hired its fired CEO and 500 staff said they were ready to join him. These are juicy headlines in a newly high-profile business segment, but not likely to have much lasting economic impact. The motivation for the OpenAI board, one ultimately controlled by core AI scientists, seems to be that the company's expansion was out of control, maybe even dangerous.In China, their central bank kept its key lending benchmarks unchanged in their November review - despite the obvious need for stimulus. It won't come from lower lending rates because this would expand downward pressure on the yuan and risk increasing capital and portfolio outflows. Those outflows hit -US$100 bln in both September and October. However as long as the interest rate spread to the USD remains heavily against the Chinese yuan, these outflows will likely persist. All they can do at the moment is not make matters worse which is why the one-year and five-year loan prime rates were held steady at 3.45% and 4.20%, respectively.Taiwanese export orders rose +2.9% in October from September to be -4.6% lower than year-ago levels. But they have been on a steady recovery since the low point in April, and are now back to the high levels they were in the 2020-2022 period.In Argentina, they have elected right-wing libertarian firebrand Javier Milei as its new president. He won decisively, 55:45. He is a hard-line social conservative with ties to the American right, opposes abortion rights and has called climate change a “lie of socialism.” He has promised to slash government spending by closing Argentina's ministries of culture, education, and diversity, and by eliminating public subsidies. He also wants to close their central bank and "dollarise" their economy. But their central bank has no US dollars, so the challenge will be huge. How do you "dollarise" when you have no dollars? This will be new territory: no country of Argentina's size has previously turned over the reins of its own monetary policy to American decisionmakers. The whole affair smacks of abject desperation.When he won the first round, the Argentine peso came under immense pressure and was devalued -18% to 350 to the USD. Now he is president-elect, another large devaluation is underway. The unofficial rate is now 1000 to the USD. Campaigning against his own currency has become self-fulfilling. He seems to have engineered a situation of making his own currency completely worthless while lacking the resources to dollarise. Who knows what happens from here. Those without US dollars are now destitute.Also, while we are not looking, Turkey's currency is falling further while its inflation rate hovers stubbornly above 60% and almost double what it was in June. All this is the result of another crazy "shock therapy" experiment that went badly wrong.The UST 10yr yield is little-changed from yesterday, now at 4.42% and -2 bps lower.The price of gold will start today at US$1974/oz and down -US$7/oz from this time yesterday.Oil prices have risen +US$2 to be just over US$78/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now at US$82.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 60.2 USc and up +¼c from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down marginally at 91.9 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 55 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 69.2.The bitcoin price starts today at US$37,269 and up +2.5% since this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been modest however at just on +/- 1.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news some eyes are on the cliff-hanger election is Argentina. It is turning out to be very close.But first, in the week ahead, the main focus will be on the Fed meeting minutes followed by American durable goods orders, manufacturing PMIs, and some housing market data. We will also get flash MPI manufacturing and services PMIs for Australia, the EU, the UK, and Japan. Upcoming are policy interest rate decisions for Turkey, and Sweden. And CPI inflation rates will be released Canada, and Japan.However, first up over the weekend, China released its October foreign direct investment data that was only +¥106.5 bln (+$24.5 bln), continuing the run of weak inflows. In fact these are now -9.4% below year-ago levels.In the US, housing starts rose by +1.9% in October from September, above market expectations as limited supply in the resale market has boosted new construction. Also, residential building consents, a forward-looking indicator of future construction, moved +1.1% higher. However, these might be recent trend increases but both are still lower than year-ago levels. And completions are now running higher than new housing starts.A new Boston Fed research paper released over the weekend examined how much labour market surveys undercount gig-workers. It could be by a lot, and answer the question about why the US participation rate seems so low. US employment is already at a record high. It may well be very much higher than those official levels, and that has monetary policy implications.In Canada, producer prices are falling, essentially due to the much lower fuel prices. They fell by more than -1% in October from September, the steepest decline in producer prices since August 2022. Year-on-year they are down -2.7% on the same oil-cost retreat.In Europe, the euro area recorded a current account surplus of €41 bln in September, the fourth consecutive one and the largest since July 2021. That is an improvement from a deficit of €5.40 billion in the same period of the previous year.In Argentina, final voting is underway in their presidential election, one making headlines because one of the candidates is an out-there libertarian outsider. A key driver of his appeal is that inflation has spiralled to over 140% pa, up more than 8% in October alone. Voters are frustrated.Separately, we should note that nickel prices have dived and continue to be pressured downwards. The price for this key commodity is down -44% since the start of 2023. Poor demand, especially by EV manufactures is weighing more than some short-term supply challenges by one large producer. This market is facing the largest supply-demand surplus in at least a decade. It does seem specific to nickel; zinc, tin, copper and lead are all holding their own on price at present.The UST 10yr yield is little-changed from Saturday, now at 4.44% and +1 bps firmer.The price of gold will start today at US$1981/oz and up just +US$1/oz from where we left it on Saturday. A week ago the yellow metal was at US$1936/oz so a weekly gain of +2.3%.Oil prices have held their Saturday rise to be just on US$76/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is also still at US$80.50/bbl. These are week-ago levels.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 59.9 USc and and little-changed from Saturday. But it is up almost +1c from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are up marginally at 92 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 54.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on under 69.1.The bitcoin price starts today at US$36,375 and virtually unchanged since this time Saturday. A week ago however it was at US$37,215. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been low at just on +/- 0.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of some weaker American data overnight that has brought a risk-off tone to financial markets and a pull-away from commodity currencies like the NZD.US jobless claims rose marginally last week but the weekly series of small rises are now adding up and they are now at their highest in almost 3 months. The level is still very low, even on a post-pandemic basis, but the trend is becoming noticeable. There are now however less than 1.6 mln people on these benefits so those falling off coverage is actually higher than new claimants.Overall industrial production in the US fell -0.6% in October from September, the most in 4 months and more than market expectations. It is now -0.7% lower than a year ago.Both the Kansas City Fed and Philly Fed's factory surveys came in with marginal overall improvements for November however. One reported lower new order levels, the other positive levels.Canadian housing starts were impressive in October, rising from September when a fall from that already high level was expected. These starts were especially strong in Vancouver. Year-on-year they were up +3.9%.Japanese machinery orders rose in the September data released overnight and by more than expected. But they remain -2.2% lower than year ago levels even if this is the least annual decline in 2023. Their look ahead however isn't especially positive.Official data for Chinese house prices was glum again, and given the low volumes and sensitivity of this data, maybe not really telling the full story. Anyway that official data reveals further small declines in new house prices, larger declines for used houses. Only 11 of their 70 largest cities posted rises in new prices. And in only 2 of them did used house prices rise. It seems unlikely the official price data really reflects the state of their housing markets.In Australia, their jobless rate rose to 3.72% in October and it's highest since May 2022. Employment rose by +54,900 but +37,900 of those were part-time roles. Part time workers now make up 30.7% of their employed workforce, the highest proportion since March 2022.The recent rising trend in container shipping freight rates came to an end last week with prices falling -2% from the week before. Bulk cargo freight rates are still rising however.The UST 10yr yield is back down -11 bps from yesterday, now at 4.44% in a return to levels of two days ago. The price of gold will start today at US$1982/oz and up +US$21/oz from yesterday.But oil prices have crashed -US$4.50 overnight, to be just over US$73/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now down to US$77.50/bbl. Driving this were unexpected high American oil inventories.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 59.8 USc and back down -½c from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 92.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -½c from yesterday at 55.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on at 69.2, and a net -40 bps lower.The bitcoin price starts today at US$36,570 and up a net +0.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours however has also been moderate at just on +/- 2.3%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news American data points to the soft landing the US Fed has been looking for as it seems to have successfully navigated the inflation transition.But first we should note that President Xi has arrived in San Francisco for the APEC meeting, his first visit to the US in five years. The last time he was there, China's economy was in the ascendency and Trump was the US president. This time those factors have reversed. The Biden-Xi meetings have started but there are low expectations for immediate progress on the thorny issues facing them. Progress, if it comes, will come slowly in small steps.Meanwhile, US mortgage applications had a rare rise last week, and mortgage interest rates were unchanged. But the rise was as much about the year-ago base as any strength this year.American producer prices fell in October in something of a surprise retreat. But it was driven lower fuel prices so that is a definite upside. Their PPI fell -0.5% in October from September to be +1.3% higher than a year ago. Good prices went down -1.4% in the month, the first decrease since May mainly due to a -15% drop in petrol prices. Services prices were unchanged from the prior month. It is a good result that indicates the American inflationary impulse has probably passed.Retail sales decreased by -0.1% in October from September, putting an end to a six-month streak of increases, but at least it was much less than the market expectation of a -0.3% decline, so they have held up better than analysts expected. Year-on-year they are up +2.7%.Going the other way, they was a very large, and unexpected, rise in factory activity in New York State, in the Fed survey for that region. It was most impressive, up +9.1% but it was driven by a surge in inventories, so it is unlikely to last. New order levels were little-changed, but there was a major catch-up in unfilled orders.In the US Congress, the Republicans recently installed a new leader in the House of Representatives and his first big test was shepherding a budget funding bill through that body. He succeeded, but only with overwhelming Democrat support. 93 Republicans voted against his measure! Don't bother learning his name (Mike Johnson), he may not be around long. But the net impact of yesterday's vote is that shutdown pressures have evaporated - till the next time, probably in early February 2024.In Japan, their economy shrank -0.5% in Q3-2023 from Q2, worse than market forecasts of a -0.1% decline and after a +1.1% growth in Q2, a flash figure showed. This was the first quarterly GDP contraction since Q4-2022. It was sluggish private consumption that caused the pullback and that was a surprise because intervening data didn't signal such a drop.China's October industrial production came in +4.6% higher than year ago levels. These increases have been very even each month since March, looking like they will meet national targets in a steady, planned way.China's October electricity production was up +5.2% from a year ago, but in fact down -8.6% from September and down -16.7% from August. These recent declines just points out how low the year-ago base was. Unfortunately much of the year-on-year rise was from coal-fired generation.Retail sales in China were little-changed in October from September (+0.07%), but were up an impressive +7.6% from a year ago, which says more about the weak year-ago base than anything else.In Europe, September data for industrial production looks kind of awful, no matter which way you look at it. Declines everywhere.In Argentine, we should note that they are now close to the final round of voting in their presidential election. It is a Peronist vs a libertarian contest. Hyperinflation is the key backdrop.In Australia, wages rose +4.0% in September from a year ago, the highest rate since 2008. A large part of this was because their Fair Work Commission annual wage review decision of +5.75%, rises in their aged care sector affecting about ¼ mln workers, and ratchet clauses in many wage and salary contracts. There were some chunky public wage settlements as well. In the same year, Australia had 5.4% CPI inflation. (For reference, NZ CPI was 5.6% in the same period and the QES reported weekly gross wages up +5.5% - so holding their own in New Zealand).Optus has confirmed the software upgrade that triggered its nationwide meltdown last week was from the network of its parent company, Singtel.The UST 10yr yield is up +8 bps from yesterday, now at 4.55% in a bounce of yesterday's dump. The price of gold will start today at US$1961/oz and down -US$2/oz from yesterday.Oil prices have softened about -US$1.50 overnight, to be just under US$77.50/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is down to US$81.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 60.3 USc and up almost +½c from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up to 92.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also up at 55.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on at 69.6, and a net +40 bps higher.The bitcoin price starts today at US$36,365 and down another -1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been moderate at just on +/- 2.3%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news markets sense the US Fed is about to say it is done raising ratesIn the US, their annual inflation rate slowed to 3.2% in October from 3.7% in both September and August, and below market forecasts of 3.3%. Core inflation retreated to 4.0%, also a touch less than expected. Even the month-on-month data came in lower than expected. These are all small moves, but they had a large impact on financial markets, who took them as a signal that the Fed is done raising rates in this cycle. Equities raced higher, bond yields fell sharply, and the USD weakened sharply.The American Redbook index of retail sales rose just +3.0% last week over the same week a year ago, and hardly keeping pace with inflation.Despite that, the NFIB SME optimism index came in better than expected for October, even if it did edge marginally lower than in September.In China, they are contemplating a release of ¥1 tln in low cost debt funding for urban village renovation and affordable housing programs, in its latest effort to bolster the struggling property market.Markets are sensing something bigger is coming because iron ore prices are now rising and back near Mar 2023 highs.EU GDP was unchanged in Q3-2023, but edged a touch lower (-0.1%) in the euro area from Q2. That means the annual year-on-year expansion hardly exists now. But this happened as employment rose slightly, ameliorating the impact.But in Germany there was a surprise jump in economic sentiment, as measured in the widely-watched ZEW survey. Both the business and financial sectors drove the rise. Firms are indicating the bottom has passed.In Australia, the widely watched NAB business confidence index fell to -2 in October from a downwardly revised flat reading in the prior month, pointing to the lowest level since May. However business conditions did edge up.Australia released its September short-stay visitor arrivals data yesterday and they are still not back to 2013 levels yet, struggling to get to levels that existed a decade ago. They were 584,000 in the month, and the largest source was New Zealand (22%), followed by China (10%), then the USA (6%).In a new embarrassment for PwC, the ICIJ has released a hoard of documents that shows the firm actively aided Russian oligarchs in Cyprus to avoid Western sanctions.The UST 10yr yield is down a very sharp -17 bps from yesterday, now at just 4.47%. The price of gold will start today at US$1963/oz and up +US$18/oz from yesterday, mainly on the USD change.Oil prices have firmed about +US$1 overnight, to be just under US$79/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is up a bit less to just on US$83/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 59.9 USc and up a full +1c from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 92.2 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 55.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on at 69.2, and a net +30 bps higher.The bitcoin price starts today at US$36,871 and down -0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been modest at just on +/- 1.1%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with the Americans face yet another government shutdown threat from disorganised partisans in Congress.But first today, the respected NY Fed American inflation expectations survey was actually little changed. Consumers said in October that inflation for the year ahead will be to 3.6%, down from 3.7% in September. Inflation expectations remained high but unchanged for rent (at 9.1%) and food (at 5.6%). They were much lower for many other items. Essentially, inflation expectations declined slightly at the short- and longer-term horizons while remaining unchanged at the medium-term horizon. For three years they see +3.0% inflation. Labour market expectations and household expectations of future income and spending growth were largely stable.And small businesses were much less pessimistic in October. The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose to 44.5 in November 2023, the highest in seven months.That may get challenged again soon as chaos in the US Congress (specifically by the Republicans in the House of Representatives) yet again are threatening a shutdown because they can't agree a way forward in their factions. The key date now is Saturday, November 18 (NZT). Meanwhile all eyes on on the US October CPI data due out tomorrow. Expect a 3.3% rate.Across the Pacific, Japanese producer prices rose by just +0.8% in October from a year ago, slowing from an upwardly revised +2.2% annual gain in the prior month and coming slightly less than market forecasts of +0.9%. This was the lowest producer inflation since a deflation in February 2021 and was the tenth straight month of a slowdown.And staying in Japan, October levels of machine tool orders took quite a hammering, after being quite strong in September. It was the largest fall since June and was affected by retreats from doth domestic and international buyers.Annual retail price inflation in India fell to 4.9% in October 2023, the lowest in four months, but actually little-changed from the 5.0% in September or the forecasts of 4.8%. The month-on-month change was a rise, and more than expected.In China, banks extended ¥738 bln in new loans in October, the least in three months, compared to ¥2.31 tln in September. The amount of loans usually falls in October due to seasonal factors, but this year's figures came above ¥615 bln in October 2022 and forecasts of ¥665 bln. But this is just the latest in a set of data that suggests the Chinese economy hasn't found any momentum yet.In Australia, via a speech by their acting chief economist, the RBA says "the road ahead could be bumpy" in their fight to control inflation and bring it back into target ranges. Certainly they see it now as a long struggle against domestic price pressures and higher wage expectations. No-one should expect the RBA to be cutting its policy rate any time soon. Perhaps the opposite.And we should note that the four large Australian ports are now back on line and operating again after the big cyber-attack. In the end it was only a weekend shutdown and the recovery seems to have been effective.The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp from yesterday, now at 4.64%. The price of gold will start today at US$1945/oz and up +US$6/oz from yesterday.Oil prices have firmed +50 USc overnight, to be just over US$78/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is up +US$1 to just on US$82.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.9 USc and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are a -½c weaker at 92.2 AUc. Against the euro we are a touch softer at 55.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on at 68.8, and a little lower.The bitcoin price starts today at US$36,871 and down -0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been modest at just on +/- 1.1%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that on top of the Optus screwup, now the four larges ports in Australia are effectively shut down via a cyberattack.But first up today, we should note that credit rating agency Moody's has held the US rating at Aaa, but changed the outlook to 'Negative' from 'Stable'. It has been 'Stable' since 2013. S&P has them at AA+ Stable. Fitch is also at AA+ Stable. Moody's expects federal interest payments relative to tax revenue and to GDP to rise to around 26% and 4.5% respectively by 2033, from 9.7% and 1.9% in 2022.That is one way to start the week, a week that will feature the US CPI update for October, retail sales data and a number of Fed speakers. We'll also get US PPI, industrial production data and housing start numbers.China will be in the limelight with updates on new yuan loans, industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment. The week will also unveil Q3 GDP growth rates for Japan and a number of other countries. India will release CPI data, and Australia will provide updates on both Westpac Consumer Confidence and NAB Business Confidence.Over the weekend the latest consumer sentiment survey for the US, the one by the University of Michigan, reported a sharpish retreat of sentiment in November from October. But to be fair it is still 6.5% higher than a year ago. Almost all the fall is in the 'current conditions' component. The future expectations component rose marginally. Of more concern is that the inflation expectations component rose somewhat to 4.4% for the year ahead. Long term inflation expectations in this survey hit a 12 year high of 3.2%.Still in the US we should note that they regularly adjust their tax rate bands for inflation, avoiding bracket-creep. This year they rise by 5.4%, following last year's +7% rise in the bands. The IRS released the details on Friday (NZT)Staying in the US, Fed boss Powell was speaking and said it is too early for them to definitively announce the conclusion of its interest-rate hikes. But he didn't make a case for further rate hikes either. Powell was quite cautious acknowledging the dangers overtightening, while also noting the danger of being “misled by a few good months of data.” The tone reinforced they are not ready to declare an end to their tightening campaign, even though financial markets and many economists have concluded the central bank is done raising rates. He noted the supply-side benefits that have helped slow American inflation so far may have run their course, and repeated that stronger growth could warrant further tightening.Japan and Korea are partnering up on building out hydrogen infrastructure, a major effort to decarbonise their domestic freight systems. They also signaled that they will cooperate closer on the technology around quantum technology and semiconductors. These agreements are expected to be signed on the side-lines of the San Francisco APEC meeting.Also at that meeting, China has finally confirmed a worst-kept 'secret'; that President Xi will meet with the US President at the end of the week.China's October vehicles sales rose at a faster pace of +13.8% year-on-year to 2.85 mln units, a record high for an October. But still, that level was fractionally lower than for September, despite the rising levels of discounting in the drive to meet ever higher sales targets. Production is rising faster than sales now, so the crunch is on. Electric and hybrid sales were up +33% year-on-year to 956,000 units, now representing a third of all sales.The world's biggest holiday shopping bonanza, Singles Day, or 11/11, peaked over the weekend. All indications are that gross sales might have exceeded last year's level by about +2.1% in value but volumes may have been higher and the intense, even extreme competition may in fact reinforce deflationary trends.India's industrial production was up +5.8% from a year ago in September, a sharp slowdown from the 14-month high of a +10.3% gain in August. This is also well below market expectations of +7% year-on-year gain. Most key sectors are in retreat, especially for factory production and electricity production. Overall, industrial production fell -3.5% in September from August, with factories down -2.0% and electricity production down -6.6%. They won't want this recent trend to embed.The OECD said 48 countries have signed a data sharing agreement for crypto asset reporting as part of their global tax transparency data sharing moves. The US, Canada, Japan, and the EU are core signers, as is Australia, Korea and Singapore. Tax haven like the British Channel Island and the Caymans are signed up too. But New Zealand is not on the list. Nor is China, Russia, or North Korea obviously.We should note that ratings agency Fitch has maintained Australia's AAA rating with a 'Stable' outlook.And staying in Australia, the RBA released its Monetary Policy Review with updated data and forecasts and noting there “was likely to be less progress” in bringing down inflation in the quarters ahead than it had previously thought, and that had increased the risks of inflation remaining higher for longer. They now see inflation only down to 3.5% by the end of next year, and to just 3% by the end of the following year.Four of Australia's largest port operations, those owned by Dubai's DP World, are effectively shut down due to a cyber-attack on the company. They say no ransom demand has been made yet. But the failure has prompted government crisis meetings over the weekend and is leaving more than 30,000 containers stranded ahead of the year-end holiday season.We should also note that the risk of a major volcanic eruption in the Icelandic town of Grindavik is suddenly very high and evacuations have begun.The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps from Saturday, now at 4.65%. The price of gold will start today at US$1939/oz and up +US$3/oz from this time Saturday.Oil prices have firmed +50 USc overnight, to be just on US$77.50/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now just on US$81.50/bbl. Both a much lower than a week ago however.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.9 USc and unchanged from Saturday. Against the Aussie we are a tad firmer at 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we are also a touch firmer at 55.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on at 68.9, and little-changed.The bitcoin price starts today at US$37,126 and down a mere -0.2% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been modest at just on +/- 0.6%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that Apple's tax tussle with the EU isn't going its way. And more than NZ$20 bln is at stake.But first up, US jobless claims were reported lower in the seasonally adjusted data, but actually rose in the raw data, and by quite a bit. There are now 1.608 mln people on these benefits, a +2.1% increase in a week. This may be the very first actual sign of the long-awaited American labour market weakening - although to be fair these levels are only back to August levels and still far lower than most points in 2023.The USDA WASDE update confirms earlier trends where American beef numbers are slipping and imports are rising. Prices are expected to rise well into 2024. American milk production is falling too and they raised their 2024 forecast milk price.China slipped fully into deflation in October with consumer prices -0.1% lower than in September and -0.2% lower than in October a year ago. Neither levels are in themselves important, but the trend is.Meanwhile, Chinese producer prices (PPI) remained -2.6% lower in October from a year ago, although these prices were unchanged from September. So perhaps the deflationary forces are running out of steam in China's factories. But they are not out of the woods yet. These pressures are still severe and perhaps one reason Beijing has reverted to imposing a fixed (to the USD) exchange rate. Even when goods from China are sold in CNY, they are priced first in USD, making the claims that the CNY/CNH is rising a bit hollow.Yesterday we noted that Beijing had directed Ping An to rescue Country Garden. Well, investors weren't impressed and trashed the Ping An share price, it falling -10% or more than -US$5 bln in the day's trading. Everyone outside of Beijing knows this is a bad idea.In Europe, Apple has lost the latest skirmish over the huge fine a lower court imposed for avoiding taxes using its Irish domicile. At stake is €13 bln (NZ$23 bln). Apple won its first appeal but has now lost this more senior appeal. The loss has had no impact on its share price.International air travel rose strongly in September, up +31% from a year ago with the Asia/Pacific region up +92%. Of course the base was very challenged. Compared with September 2019 however we still have some way to go to get back to those levels, but there is a recovery underway.Also rising, and more sharply than in the prior week, container freight rates were up +7% last week. Rates out of China to both the US and Europe drove the increase. Bulk cargo rates have started rising again.The UST 10yr yield is up from yesterday as bond prices rise yet again, now at 4.62% and a rise of +9 bps. The price of gold will start today at US$1963/oz and up +US$9/oz from this time yesterday.Oil prices have recovered a minor +50 USc overnight, to be just under US$76/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is up more, now just on US$80/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 59.4 USc and unchanged from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +¼c at 92.6 AUc. Against the euro we are a little firmer at 55.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on at 69.3, and up +30 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$36,490 and up a strong +3.0% from this time yesterday. That puts it over NZ$60,000 for more than one day for the first time since April 2022. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just on +/- 3.9%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

It's happening: the Danielle Smith government is completely overhauling Alberta Health Services, starting from the top all the way down. While nobody can claim the current system is working flawlessly, there are a million different concerns around how the changes may affect frontline workers and the millions of patients that rely on the system every year.  2:28 | Minister of Health Adriana LaGrange takes questions on expert policy consultation, recruiting and retaining healthcare workers, preserving system integration, service delivery beyond acute care, privatization, and political ideology influencing health policy.  19:17 | Alberta Medical Association president Dr. Paul Parks tells us how Alberta doctors feel about the UCP's plan to overhaul healthcare delivery.  CHECK OUT THE AMA ONLINE: https://www.albertadoctors.org/ 45:27 | Is Alberta's renewables landscape really as "Wild West" as the province would have us believe? Is the moratorium on new wind and solar projects defensible, or is the regulator (AUC) already doing its job? Dr. Ian Urquhart takes us into his Alberta Views feature "Where to Put a Solar Farm".  REAL TALKERS: KNOCK 50% OFF A ONE-YEAR SUBSCRIPTION TO ALBERTA VIEWS WITH THE PROMO CODE "AVRJ" -- https://albertaviews.ca/ BECOME A REAL TALK PATRON: https://www.patreon.com/ryanjespersen  EMAIL THE SHOW: talk@ryanjespersen.com  WEBSITE: https://ryanjespersen.com/ FOLLOW US ON TIKTOK, TWITTER, & INSTAGRAM: @realtalkrj  THANK YOU FOR SUPPORTING OUR SPONSORS! https://ryanjespersen.com/sponsors The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the host and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Relay Communications Group Inc. or any affiliates.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news there is little evidence the global economy is on the rise. Bond markets don't think so.But first, last week there was a rare rise in American mortgage applications, now off a lower base however, but also helped by sharply lower mortgage interest rates. Their benchmark 30 year fixed rate fell to 7.61% plus points, a retreat from 7.86% and the largest fall since July 2022. Of course, they are following the US Treasury rates lower.American consumer credit levels rose in September from August, but really only back to where they were in July. But they are up +9.0% in a year.American beef prices are rising, and sharply, as drought threatens cattle herds. Although this is not strictly 'news' - the trend has been around for a year - the drought slaughter in the southwest is ending and the overall US herd is much smaller now. Imports will be benefiting significantly now.Canadian building consents recorded a very sharp -6.5% fall in September, much more than expected. Much of that was a base effect of unusually large non-residential projects being approved a year ago. But the value of residential consents rose +4.3% from August and were +2.3% higher than a year ago. The residential consent levels are especially strong in Vancouver.In China, concern about the country's lackluster economy and troubled property market has led to rising discontent among citizens, a new study shows.And Beijing is about to make a classic mistake in its efforts to stave off a Country Garden bankruptcy. The giant real estate developer has avoided a complete collapse but is on its last legs. In desperation, Beijing as now ordered insurer Pin Ang to "invest" to save it. One huge zombie could now well infect a healthy company. This is an example of Xi's acolytes being very light on basic economic or business experience. The consequences could be wide, especially if Country Garden does linger on and avoid its 'creative destruction' - which will invite a repeat of the technique.Meanwhile, their central bank said it will provide emergency liquidity to regions with heavy debt as necessary to help local governments resolve debt risks. Again, more debt to resolve unsustainable debt issues.In the EU, retail sales volumes slipped again in September to be -2.7% lower in a year. Euro area levels were weaker than the overall EU levels.In Australia, they had their driest October since 2002 due to El Nino. Rainfall was -65% below the 1961–1990 average.And staying in Australia, the mammoth Optus outage, one made worse because networks there don't 'share' when they have major issues like this, is being forensically examined for the cause. It is likely they accidentally misconfigured its own BGP routers; whether someone else did it accidentally, or whether someone else did it deliberately, remains to be seen. It's also not yet clear whether Optus' BGP issues are the cause of its outage, or a symptom of some other problem.Globally, September air cargo traffic was up +1.6% from the same month ago, and the fastest growing region was the Asia/Pacific region (+4.2). But the overall levels arte still -1.8% lower than in September 2019, and -3.2% lower in the Asia/Pacific.The UST 10yr yield is down from yesterday as bond prices rise again, now at 4.53% and a drop of another -4 bps. The price of gold will start today at US$1954/oz and down another -US$10/oz from this time yesterday.Oil prices have fallen again overnight, down another -US$2.50 to be just over US$75.50/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is down more, now just under US$78/bbl. These are three and a half month lows.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 59.3 USc and unchanged from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 92.3 AUc. Against the euro we are a little lower at 55.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on at 69, and also little-changed.The bitcoin price starts today at US$35,427 and up +2.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.9%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Il est souvent l'oublié de la répartition de notre temps et de notre attention. Et pourtant, le couple ne se contente pas de coexister avec nos carrières, il influence profondément tous les aspects de notre existence. Vies professionnelles et personnelles sont tissées ensemble, intrinsèquement liées. Alors quand on est en couple - a fortiori quand le couple fait famille -, prendre soin de cette relation est un élément clef de notre équilibre. Pour aborder ce sujet, j'ai eu le privilège d'interviewer Soazig Castelnérac @saveyourlovedate, créatrice du concept "Save Your Love Date", animatrice du podcast "Au Cœur du Couple" et autrice des livres "Les 5 clés de l'amour durable" et "Viens on s'aime". Dans l'épisode 250 de Femme Ambitieuse, l'experte en relations amoureuses partage de précieux outils pour harmoniser amour et carrière. L'un de ces outils réside dans la préservation d'espaces de communication quotidiens, des moments propices pour se dire mutuellement "c'est important pour moi, j'ai besoin de toi". Parce que le changement est inévitable, la discussion ouvre la voie à l'évolution. Si votre carrière commence à éclipser d'autres aspects de votre vie, prendre le temps de dialoguer, de réévaluer vos priorités et de vous intéresser davantage à votre partenaire sont des petites choses simples qui auront un effet incroyable. Êtes-vous prête à entretenir la flamme de l'amour et de la réussite professionnelle ? Rejoignez notre discussion dès maintenant ! **** Retrouvez Soazig Castelnérac sur : - Son site Internet saveyourlovedate.fr - Son podcast "Au Coeur du Couple" podcast.ausha.co/au-coeur-du-couple - Linkedin linkedin.com/in/soazig-castelnerac-b12b4375 - Instagram instagram.com/saveyourlovedate *** Vous représentez une entreprise et souhaitez développer le leadership de vos talents féminins ? Cliquez ici. ** réalisé par Arnaud S. | musique-imaginaire.com

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news global trade is in the spotlight.The run of dairy price rises ended in today's Global Dairy Trade auction today. Overall prices fell -0.7% in USD terms, down -1.2% in NZD terms. The key WMP price fell -2.7% in a key shift, but one signaled by the weekly GDT Pulse events although today's price was actually higher than last week's Pulse result. Keeping the dip limited were rises for SMP, up +2.3% and for Cheddar cheese, up +4.5%. These two suggest better demand from the food service sector, especially in China.In the US their logistics managers index (LMI) rose and quite sharply, indicating rising demand for these key distribution services, although freight rates actually decreased in this survey.Meanwhile the US September trade result (for goods and services, that is, on a balance of payments basis) came in with a modest but continuing deficit. Overall exports rose +2.2% which overall imports rose +2.7%. This involved an increase in the goods deficit of $1.7 bln to -$86 bln and a decrease in the services surplus of $1.2 bn to +$25 bln. But still, this is the third lowest trade deficit since 2021.Last week, the rising retail sales gains evaporated. Their weekly Redbook index of retail sales at brick & mortar outlets on a same store basis was up only +3.1% from the same week a year ago, barely beating inflation. Although to be fair, much of this was an unusual rise in last year's base.Overnight we also got an update on US household debt levels and they actually changed very little in September from the prior quarter, mainly because housing debt rose very little. Year on year, housing debt is up +4.2% but non-housing household debt is up +6.4%, mainly credit card debt.In Canada, September exports rose +2.7% in September to the highest since June 2022 and the third consecutive monthly increase. Imports rose +1.0% to their highest since January. That meant they recorded a +C$2 bln surplus, twice what was expected.The IMF has been reviewing China's economy and now says it will expand by +5.4% in 2023, up from an earlier forecast of a +5% rise. Most of the extra is down to Beijing support initiatives, they say. For 2024 they say China will expand +4.6%.In China, exports fell -8.1% in October from September to be down -6.4% from October in 2022. Meanwhile imports fell -1.4% from the prior month even though they were up +3.0% from a year ago. As the West de-risks from China, (exports down -15% to the US, down -10.6% to the EU and down -8.6% to Japan) clearly selling more to Russia (up +52%) isn't going to save them. Only Africa (+8.0%) is the other region they made gains. China's exports to New Zealand are down -14.9% and to Australia down a much lesser -4.2%.China's foreign exchange reserves at the end of October were marginally lower at US$3.1 tln, as expected.Meanwhile Taiwanese exports fell rather sharply in October, down -4.5% from year ago levels. A small rise was expected. Imports fell very sharply, down more than -12% although this was pretty much as expected.In Europe, data for industrial production in Germany for September came in lower than expected, down -3.7% from the same month a year earlier.In Australia, and in an about-face the Reserve Bank of Australia is no longer standing on the sidelines as inflation turns back up. It has pushed through a new +25 bps rate hike to 4.35% and markets are thinking a December rise may come tooThe UST 10yr yield is down from yesterday as bond prices rise again, now at 4.57% and a drop of -8 bps. The price of gold will start today at US$1964/oz and down another -US$18/oz from this time yesterday.Oil prices have fallen overnight, down a very sharp -US$3.50 to be just under US$78/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now just over US$82/bbl. These are three and a half month lows. In fact it first reached this level 16 years ago, so after inflation it is now unusually cheap.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 59.3 USc and down -½c from this time yesterday, dragged lower by the Aussie dollar. Against the Aussie we are slightly firmer however at 92.3 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 55.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on at 69.1, down only -10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$34,665 and down -0.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low too at just on +/- 0.9%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news mostly about Australia today.The Australian prime minister is in Beijing meeting with President Xi. Trade is the main topic, and that needs improved relations after a period of bilateral tension. These latest meetings bring a notable thaw, ahead of the US-China meetings at the upcoming APEC conference. Xi said China's relationship with Australia is now on "the right path". Albanese pointed out that an improvement will be beneficial for both countries. But Australia is negotiating trade restriction rollbacks that should never have been imposed in the first place. However, Albanese invited Xi to Australia.Back in Australia, ASIC data for October shows company bankruptcies were -16% lower in October 2023 than the same month a year ago. But this is a rare bit of good news on this front because year on year these bankruptcies are running +38% higher.The Melbourne Institute's Monthly Inflation Gauge fell -0.1% in October 2023 after a flat reading in September, showing declining prices for the first time in fourteen months and clouding the outlook for the RBA monetary policy. The annual growth rate also eased to 5.1% in October from 5.7% in September.Later today the Reserve Bank of Australia delivers its monthly monetary policy review and increasing numbers of observers are expecting them to raise its policy rate from the current 4.10% to 4.35%. If they do, parts of Australia will be 'shocked' but they shouldn't be because inflation is rising and their housing markets are becoming sharply less affordable. A rise could give blowback on the NZD and our interest rates, although to be fair some of that will already be priced in. Oh, and there is a horse race in Australia today too.Germany factory orders rose unexpectedly in September. While it wasn't a large rise, a correcting fall was expected after the rather large jump in August. Foreign orders were the driver here, up +4.2%, with new orders from the EU rising +6.2% and orders from the rest of the world rising +2.9%. It is an impressive signal, especially as it is more than just for one month.Also later today, the winner of the 2023 Earthshot prize will be announced in Singapore. So far, more show than substance, but the five winners do take away more than $2 mln as seed money for a major environmental project. So far none of the ten prior winners have gone on to make a global impact, but it is early days yet. Hopefully this initiative isn't an irrelevancy, and more than just grandstanding.The UST 10yr yield is up today from yesterday in a small recovery to 4.65%, a gain of +7 bps. The price of gold will start the week at US$1982/oz and down -US$10/oz from this time yesterday.Oil prices have risen overnight, up about +US$1 to be just over US$81.50/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now just under US$86/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 59.8 USc and down almost -¼c from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are similarly softer at 92 AUc. Against the euro we are a bit more softer at 55.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on at 69.2, down about -20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$34,946 and virtually unchanged from this time yesterday, down a mere -0.1%. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US Treasury's debt issuance plan eased investors' fears of a looming deluge of long-term government debt that had triggered a bond market rout and bond markets have rallied very sharply.But first in the US initial jobless claims rose last week by a mere +2800 last week to 197,000 and there are now 1.58 mln people on these programs. But after seasonal adjustment the rises were magnified as reported elsewhere and stated to be the highest since April and an indication their labour market is turning (even if that is not what the actual data shows yet).Meanwhile, American factory orders rose a sharp +2.8% in September from August, the most since January 2021. (Year-on-year they are up +2.2%.) Durable goods orders were up a remarkable +4.7% as orders for aircraft roared back, up +65% from a year ago.October vehicle sales were expected to dip slightly from September, to an annual rate of 15.3 mln from 15.7 mln. But the actual dip was a lesser 15.5 mln annual rate. This is very much higher than the year-ago levels of about 14.5 mln rate.In American factories making all this stuff, labour productivity surged in the September quarter, up a remarkable +4.7%.In New York, authorities there have prevailed in a case that held ride sharing companies like Uber have "systematically cheated" New York drivers out of pay and benefits. They are making huge restitution.In Toronto, the gloss is coming off their housing market and sales volumes are falling. October brought the third straight monthly drop and the fastest pace of decline in 15 months. In Vancouver, things are steady.In Japan, their government has approved a program of tax cuts and other measures to help households battle inflation's pressures. The overall package is worth about NZ$190 bln.Singapore's factory PMI expanded more in October than September, a second consecutive expansion and a fifth straight rise.In Norway, their central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.25%, but signaled that a hike is likely before the end of the year, because they are not on top of inflation yet.Meanwhile the Bank of England kept is key policy rate at a 15-year high of 5.25% for a second consecutive meeting, in line with market forecasts. They are grappling with persistently high inflation and signs of an economic slowdown. Three of nine policymakers actually voted for a rate hike, but that is less than the four at their prior review.In Germany, their unemployment rate is holding. The number jobless fell by -20,000 in October from September (when a +15,000 rise was expected) and there are now just over 2.6 mln people without jobs there, an unchanged 5.7% rate. But the rise is up +165,000 from a year ago.In Australia, Westpac's new business banking boss says the fate of many struggling small firms will hinge on the December-January period. Might be so here too. The the new Westpac Australia chief economist, ex the RBA, says her old employer may be forced into more than one more rate rise because inflation isn't tamed there yet. That won't help those SMEs either.Australia's merchandise trade surplus fell to a 30-month low of +AU$6.8 bln in September from an upwardly revised AU$10.2 bln in August. The September result was well below market forecasts of an AU$9.4 bln surplus as exports fell -1.4% while imports surged +7.5% from the prior month.Housing investor demand (+2.6% from a year ago) is keeping mortgage lending up in Australia, while owner occupiers are borrowing less. Lending for new houses remained at 20 year lows. On the commercial side, construction loans rose, and rather sharply (+55%).In global container freight markets there was a surprise +5% rise in freight rates last week, driven by very sharp +11% increases on the Chine-Los Angeles route. Meanwhile, bulk cargo rates continued last week's retreat.The UST 10yr yield is down a sharpish -14 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.67% as bond markets rally after the US Treasury's debt issuance plan. It has had a global flow-through. The price of gold will start today at US$1982/oz and up +US$6/oz from this time yesterday.Oil prices have held at risen +50 USc to US$82/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now at US$86.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.8 USc and up +½c from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are firmish at 91.7 AUc. Against the euro we are marginally firmer at 55.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today +30 bps higher at just under at 68.7.The bitcoin price starts today at US$34,604 and +0.4% higher than this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.3%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

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Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US central bank still sees American inflation 'elevated' above where it needs to be.At its latest review, the US Fed has delivered the result markets expected, and one well signaled by the recent Fed speakers - a hawkish hold. They kept the federal funds rate at a 22-year high of 5.5% for the second consecutive time. Inflation is easing back and they seem aware of avoiding an overshoot in monetary tightening. But with the American economy defying repeated expectations of a slowdown, market expectations that the Fed is 'done' raising rates may be premature, and the Fed is clearly keeping its options open on that.Staying in the US, the level of mortgage applications fell -2.1% last week from the prior week. This in itself is not surprising, because it extends a long run of weakness. But it does take their current levels down to those last seen in 1995, a 28 year low. Mortgage interest rates slipped slightly in the latest week, down to 7.86% plus points for the benchmark 30 year mortgage, still close to a 23 year high.With the American working age population growing at least +70,000 per month, it is 'positive' that payrolls rose +113,000 in October from September in the pre-cursor ADP Employment Report on private sector payrolls, and well above the +89,000 gain in September. But the rise was much less than the expected +150,000. This Saturday (NZT), non-farm payrolls are expected to grow +150,000 when they are reported for October. The ADP report noted that annual pay rose +5.7%, so there is still significant strength in US labour markets - a key factor why the UAW won its dispute with carmakers.In a 'positive' surprise, job openings in September rose by 56,000 from August to 9.55 mln, the highest level in four months and exceeding the market consensus of 9.25 mln. But they are down sharply from the 10.9 mln in September a year ago. Hires were lower too on a year-on-year basis, but 'separations' fell.In the nation's factories, the internationally-benchmarked Markit PMI was revised up slightly to neither expanding nor contracting in October, a small improvement from their 'flash' report. But the widely-watched local ISM factory PMI told a different story, contracting slightly, and slightly faster in October than September. Weak new order levels were a feature of the ISM report, contrasting with rising new order levels in the Markit survey. Take your pick.In Japan, Toyota has signaled record high profits, justifying its market strategies and position. It is an interesting contrast to the recent Tesla result which is suffering from the price-slashing carnage in the EV market, especially in China.Mirroring the official version, the private Caixin PMI for China's factory sector slipped lower into contraction in October. It just reinforces earlier data that they are in a funk, one that will be hard to escape from - at least in the way they were running pre-pandemic. This Caixin report drop wasn't expected.And for the first time on record, bank lending for commercial property actually fell in September according to central bank monitoring (item 6). They claim it has stabilised. Debt growth to companies was high overall, up +10.9% from a year ago, but it seems to have 'culminated' in the commercial real estate sector.In India, their jobless rate jumped to 10.1% in October from 7.1% in September, the highest level since May 2021. The issue is especially sharp in rural India where the weakest monsoon rains in five years is weighing on farm production, especially for rice.In Australia, building consents dropped -21% in September from a year ago. They fell -4.6% from August. These were sharper retreats than expected because a rise was expected from August.And staying in Australia, mortgage stress seems to be rising. Surveys by Roy Morgan show that as at the end of September, 1,573,000 or more than 30% of mortgage holders were 'at risk' of mortgage stress, up an eye-watering +760,000 from a year ago when only 15.7% were under stress threat.The IMF is about to release an update of its review of Australia. It will be critical of policy approaches especially around 'wasteful' infrastructure spending which they say will be inflationary and require the RBA to raise official rates further. The visiting IMF economists concluded the economy was running above capacity, with low unemployment, “sticky” inflation and rising house prices.In international shipping, we should note that the drought affecting the Panama Canal is crimping international trade and the effects are likely to worsen with El Nino.The UST 10yr yield is down -5 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.81%. The price of gold will start today at US$1976/oz and down another -US$15/oz from this time yesterday.Oil prices have held at their recent lower level, still at just on US$81.50/bbl in the US. The international Brent price has risen +50 USc to be now just under US$86/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.3 USc and back up +¼c from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are softish at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are also +¼c firmer 55.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today fractionally higher at just on at 68.4.The bitcoin price starts today at US$34,464 and another tiny -US$31 or -0.1% lower from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.6%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the Chinese President is having to get involved in shoring up China's faltering economic track.In China, their official factory PMI fell unexpectedly in October back into contraction after the minor expansion in September. Markets weren't expecting that, So China's economic recovery remains fragile with more support measures from the government needed. New orders were the weak issue, returning to contraction.And it was a similar story in their services sector. It did manage to stay in expansion mode but only just after dipping from September. The October result is the weakest of 2023. New orders were particularly weak which is a worry and these are now contracting.Meanwhile, President Xi underscored his concerns about China's shrinking population in a speech calling on women to help bolster the birth rate by promoting a “culture” of childbirth. It also played to his conservative social views.He was active at the Central Financial Work Conference, trying to shore up issues related to ballooning local government debt risks. The recent ¥1 tln debt swap program allowing local governments to replace their so-called “hidden” debt for bonds carrying lower interest rates was part of this push. Also part is a new requirement for bankers to study the volumes of books with Xi's Thought.In Japan however, yield curve control policies are all the focus. Late yesterday the Bank of Japan loosened its reins, allowing their ten year government bond yield to rise to about 1%. But despite that, the yen fell.Japanese consumer confidence ticked up a little after two months of sagging, now back to May-June levels. Most components of this survey rose, except views on job security.EU inflation fell more than expected in October, down to just 2.9% and its lowest since July 2021. This is largely due to retreating energy prices. Their core rate, without food or energy, cooled to 4.2% from 4.5% in September.Meanwhile, EU GDP shrank -0.1% in the three months to September from the prior quarter, worse than market forecasts of a flat reading and following an upwardly revised +0.2% rise in the second quarter. It rose +0.1% from the same quarter a year ago. Lower inflation and lower growth comes after the ECB's steady diet of rate hikes, and all eyes are on whether that phase is done now.Meanwhile, German retail sales were expected to rise in September from August, but they fell in an unanticipated retreat.But American retail sales, as measured weekly by their Redbook index of bricks & mortar stores, rose strongly again last week, and by more than expected to be +5.3% ahead of year-ago levels on a same store basis. They are growing handily more than inflation now.But coming in better than expected but worse than the prior month was the US Conference Board survey of consumer sentiment, a widely-watched metric. A big dip from September was anticipated, but a small dip was delivered. But what these consumers are telling the survey is different to how they are acting, it must be said, with rising confidence for continued spending.And for those who follow business sentiment in the Mid-West industrial heartland, the Chicago PMI was unchanged in October, but still low. However they recorded a good uplift in new orders in the month.Caterpillar reported a double-digit rise in profit overnight, beating Wall Street estimates on solid construction equipment sales in North America, but its shares slid in trading today on signs of slowing machinery demand.In Australia, new census data for 2022 shows that there are now 29.5% of their population born outside the country, not a new high because in 2020 that level was 29.9% and then stunted by the pandemic. There were 586,000 New Zealanders, the fourth largest country of origin, topped by China's 597,000, India's 754,000 and by far the fastest growing group, with the most born in England 961,000 and a declining cohort. The UST 10yr yield is down -3 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.86%. The price of gold will start today at US$1991/oz and down another -US$7/oz from this time yesterday.Oil prices have fallen -50 USc today to be now at just on US$81.50/bbl in the US. The international Brent price has fallen a bit more now just over US$85.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.1 USc and down -¼c from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are firmish at 91.8 AUc. Against the euro we are still just on 55 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today again little-changed at just on at 68.3.The bitcoin price starts today at US$34,433 and a mere -US$40 or -0.1% lower from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

This week our guest is Jason Schneider, Director, Rural Municipalities of Alberta (RMA) and Reeve of Vulcan County in Southern Alberta. The RMA is a progressive, independent association committed to meeting the diverse and changing needs of Alberta's 69 counties and municipal districts. Since 1909, the RMA has helped rural municipalities advocate for strong, effective local government.  The RMA did not ask for a pause on new permits for renewables projects in Alberta; however, they do have concerns that they hope the inquiry will tackle, including the use of prime agricultural land for renewables projects and a lack of plans for reclamation and cleanup. Jason is also an elected official in Vulcan County. Vulcan County is conveniently located close to Calgary and Lethbridge in southwest Alberta. Including the towns and rural areas, the total population is about 7,000 people. The County covers an area of about 6.5 times larger than Calgary. Vulcan County currently has four renewable projects operating or under construction, approximately six approved projects, and about a dozen more in the pre-approval, early proposal stages.   Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Jason:  What is the scale of the renewable projects in Vulcan County? Who benefits financially from the projects? What are some of RMA's concerns with the current process for approving and permitting renewables projects?  Is the building of transmission lines also a concern? What are the requirements for reclamation of the projects? If the projects are on private land, why is reclamation a concern of the municipality? Does social media and misinformation contribute to opposition to renewable projects? If so, what is the best way to communicate accurate information to citizens?  What changes would you like to see from the Alberta Utilities Commission's (AUC) inquiry on the development of renewables projects?   Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinst LinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas Podcast Apple Podcasts Google Podcasts Amazon Music Spotify 

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news geopolitical risks remain high but they don't seem to be escalating from here, and markets are taking that as a positive signal. But benchmark interest rates are back rising again.First up today, global banking giant HSBC has announced a doubling of its profits in Q3-2023. They made NZ$13 bln in the three months to September, benefiting from higher global interest rates.Second, General Motors has apparently settled its dispute with its union who have been on strike, the last of the big three American carmakers to resolve the dispute. It appears, like the other settlements, the UAW has prevailed in all its substantive claims.In Japan, all eyes are on their central bank who later today are expected to make a significant shift in policy and let some of their interest rate targets rise.The World Bank has been assessing the prospects for commodity prices. It sees oil prices falling away - assuming we avoid a sudden supply-constrained geopolitical shock. Their base case has oil falling from here, to the low US$80/bbl range. But in their worst-case scenario they see US$150/bbl oil. They also see food prices falling as rising supply more than makes up for rising demand. An exception is for rice. But they are not seeing price being a threat to future global food security out to 2025. In the current circumstances, they have a very sanguine outlook - with the usual caveats about unexpected shocks.Meanwhile, EU sentiment continues to weaken. It recorded a slight decrease from the previous month and came in lower than expected even if the change was minor. This is the weakest it has been since November 2020. The combination of persistent inflationary pressure and the ECB's extended policy tightening has exerted a dampening effect everywhere. In a week or so we get the next ECB inflation expectations survey.And there might be some relief in store. In Germany, and with the help of easing food inflation, their October CPI inflation rate fell to 3.8%, sharply lower than the September 4.5% rate. The October rate is their lowest inflation level since August 2021.Meanwhile, the German economy was expected to shrink by -0.3% in Q3-2023 but the actual result was a -0.1% retreat - and prior quarter falls were revised into slight rises. This was a very much 'better' result than expected, despite its negativeness, and markets were 'impressed'.In Australia, September retail sales rose more than expected to be +2.0% higher than a year ago, pumped by the +0.9% rise in September from August. The year-on-year result is far less than inflation but the more recent rise is sharpish and may encourage the RBA to hike, thinking that along with earlier +5.6% monthly inflation indicator data, the risks of waiting for are not worth taking.The UST 10yr yield is up +4 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.89%. The price of gold will start today at US$1998/oz and down -US$6/oz from this time yesterday.Oil prices have fallen -US$3 today to be now at just over US$82/bbl in the US. The international Brent price has fallen a bit more now just under US$86.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.3 USc and marginally firmer from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are softish at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are still just on 55 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today again unchanged at just under at 68.2.The bitcoin price starts today at US$34,473 and up just +0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.0%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with economic news away from the global geopolitical struggles was only 'average' over the weekend.In the week ahead, the key local data is our September labour market situation which is due Wednesday. More here.Then on Thursday (NZT), the US Fed will review its monetary policy position, quickly followed on Saturday (NZT) by their non-farm payrolls report for October.There will be a raft of PMI updates this week too all for October. And a big set of CPI updates are due this week, the most interesting will be from the EU, Korea, and Turkey. Japan is also due to review its monetary policy decision this week, as well as some second-tier countries like the UK and Brazil.And we must not overlook we will be into the meat of the global earnings reporting season this week, which could also be influential.But first, following Friday's surprise surge in US economic growth, details released over the weekend confirmed the sharper than expected rise in consumer spending, up +0.7% in September from the prior month. Their core PCE is up +3.7% for the year. The appetite for both goods and services rose at about the same rate. Personal income rose at a consistent +0.3% from the prior month. Their savings rate eased back marginally.But behind the consumption rise, there are signs that Americans are avoiding big-ticket items. Firms are reporting softer demand or a preference for less expensive alternatives. It seems the more you have to think about a purchase, the less likely you will make it.So far, with nearly half of companies reporting, the Wall Street earnings season is developing into a good one, despite some high-profile misses. Of the 245 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings so far, 77% of them beat earnings expectations.In China, profits earned by their big industrial firms fell by -9.0% from a year earlier in the first nine months of 2023, amid weak demand at home and abroad and persisting margin pressures. The decrease followed a -11.7 % slump in the prior period, so the situation is easing. Things have turned up smartly in the past two months even if they still lag year-ago levels.Australia has had the same difficulty we had, getting the EU to agree to a trade deal, despite their better hand. The sticking point was access for agricultural products. The top EU officials are Eastern European, with the EU trade chief from Latvia, and their Agriculture boss from Poland, so expectations should not have been high for the weekend 'last ditch' effort at a ministers meeting at the G7. Not unexpectedly those talks collapsed. Australia wants access for its farm products, the EU wants access to Australian minerals. But domestic EU politics couldn't bridge the gap. Earlier in 2023 New Zealand took the crumbs of what the EU offered; the Aussies have not.The UST 10yr yield is little-changed from this time Saturday, still at 4.85%. A week ago it was at 4.93%. The price of gold will start today at US$2006/oz and up +US$20/oz from Saturday to start the week. A week ago we at US$1982/oz.Oil prices have risen +50 USc today to be now at just under US$85/bbl in the US. The international Brent price has risen more, up +US$1.50/bbl now just under US$90/bbl. But these latest price levels are still lower than a week ago.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.1 USc and marginally softer from Saturday. Against the Aussie we are holding at 91.8 AUc. Against the euro we are just on 55 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today unchanged at just under at 68.2. This time last week it was at 68.4, so again, little change.The bitcoin price starts today at US$34,409 and up +2.2% from this time Saturday. Last week it made a notable +14% move up. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.9%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

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Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that is impressive out of North America.First up today, the Americans have delivered a stellar Q3-2023 GDP expansion, far higher than the optimistic forecasts, and far higher than the very good Q2-2023 expansion of +2.1%. In Q3, the giant American economy grew +4.9% according to their advance estimate. Better, this was built on stronger than expected consumer spending.Their PCE price index, an inflation measure the US Fed takes note of, rose +2.9% from a year ago, with the 'core' measure up +2.4% and less than expected.That was just the start of their 'good economic news'. US durable goods orders rose a startling +6.0% in September from a year ago, up at a +4.7% rate from the prior month. No one saw this surge coming either. Capital goods orders were hit out of the park, up +16% from the same month a year ago.New initial jobless claims for last week came in at 192,000, and while still very low, it was marginally higher than a week ago. But there are now only 1.58 mln people on these benefits, also unusually low.US exports rose +2.9% in September from August, but that still leaves them -2.2% lower than the same month a year ago. Their merchandise trade deficit rose marginally.Also somewhat unexpected - and positive - was that American pending home sales rose in September from August when analysts were bracing for another fall. But even after that bump, they remain historically weak.Canada said weekly earnings there were up +4.2% from a year ago in August, an unchanged rate from July. Given inflation there is running at 3.8% pa, workers there are keeping up, even making real gains.In China, international banks are reporting sharply higher provisions and losses for their business there. Standard Chartered led these reports, Japanese banks exposed there too are reporting a similar profit hit. American banks are noting similar stress in their Chinese operations.There has been quite a turnaround in Singapore as well. Industrial production jumped more than +10% in September from August, although that was largely just making back the dire August result. But it has shrunk the year-on-year shortfall to just -2.1%, much better than the expected -4.8%.In Europe, the ECB hit the 'pause' button after a series of ten consecutive rate increases since July 2022. It claims it sees a gradual easing of price pressures. It is also looking at an impending recession. Still, this leaves their policy rate at 4.5%, its highest in 22 years. Its quantitative tightening program - selling off its bond holdings - continues unchanged.In Turkey they raised their policy interest rate by +500 bps to 35% earlier today. That's up from 8% in June. An eye-watering policy about-face. They have inflation running at over 60% pa now.Global containerised freight rates fell another -2% last week, taking them down -57% from a year ago. Rates to and from China are the weak links; rates across the Atlantic actually showed rate increases. Bulk cargo rates topped out over the past week and are now falling.The UST 10yr yield has fallen -10 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.85%. The price of gold will start today at US$1984/oz and up +US$7/oz from yesterday at this time.Oil prices have ticked back down -50 USc today to be now at just over US$83.50/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now just over US$87.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.1 USc and down -10 bps from this time yesterday after dipping sharply in between. Against the Aussie we are up marginally to 92.1 AUc. Against the euro we have risen slightly to 55.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today slightly firmer at 68.4.The bitcoin price starts today at US$33,812 and down -2.2% from this time yesterday and off its eighteen month high. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news commodity prices are trending down across the board now - but not money commodity prices.But first in the US, although mortgage applications 'only' fell -1% last week from the prior week (and to be down -22% from a year earlier), the big news was the +20 bps jump in their benchmark 30 year mortgage interest rate from a week ago, now up to 7.9% plus points, the highest since 2000. Rates have now risen seven consecutive weeks at a cumulative amount of +69 bps.While this may is keeping the existing home resale market quiet, oddly it is doesn't seem to be hurting new home sales. They rose sharply in September to an annualised rate of 759,000 and their highest since February 2022. In this corner of their housing market, FOMO seems to be active. And as we recently noted, there may be more to come because building consents and housing start data is holding up too.This housing data was noticed by financial markets, triggering a turnaround, and a new jump in bond yields.In Canada their central bank held its policy rate at 5.0% in an overnight decision. Their quantitative tightening program continues (selling down bonds they earlier bought to support markets). They noted that overall market conditions are now doing their rate job for them and the risk is that markets may overdo things while inflation falls away.In China, outflows of investment capital are growing, marking their biggest net decline in in September in nearly eight years. Driving it are a combination of foreign companies scaling back their operations in China, and wealthy Chinese shifting funds abroad. The net outflow reached almost US$54 bln in September, the most since January 2016.In Germany, a widely-watched business sentiment survey continued to turn positive and is back to year-ago levels.In Australia, inflation is rising again. Their monthly inflation indicator came in at 4.9% in July, 5.2% in August, and that rose again to 5.6% in September (5.4% was expected). This locked in the Q3-2023 CPI at 5.4% and although down from 6.0% in Q2, it is clearly on the rise again recently. Fuel, electricity, housing and insurance all are keeping the pressure on. The AUD rose on the news, in the expectation of a higher chance the RBA will raise rates there on November 7. That comes just a few hours after Westpac Australia economists set their forecast as a no change, followed by reductions from September 2024 (see page 19).Generally however, commodity prices are falling, mostly because demand out of China is weak and not expected to revive any time soon. This includes weak prices for copper and coal, nickel and zinc. Tin and lead prices are holding, but lithium carbonate prices are now back down to pre-surge levels.The UST 10yr yield has risen +11 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.95%. The price of gold will start today at US$1977/oz and up +US$3/oz from yesterday at this time.Oil prices have ticked back up +50 USc today to be now at just over US$84/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now just over US$88/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.2 USc and down -10 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up to 92 AUc. Against the euro we have slipped slightly to 55 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today unchanged at 68.3.The bitcoin price starts today at US$34,586 and up another +1.7% from this time yesterday to an eighteen month high. Over the past week, this crypto price has risen more than +NZ$10,000 and is now just a tad under NZ$60,000. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.6%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.