Podcasts about AUC

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news Trump cancelled his latest planned military strikes claiming negotiating progress. That has been enough to settle financial markets today. But first in the US, producer prices jumped +1.1% in May from April to be +6.5% higher than a year ago and to their highest since November 2022. And before the pandemic, their highest since this series began in 2009. Core PPI was up +5.1% and a similar high. These rises were more than expected. US initial jobless claims also rose more than expected last week.to 228,400 and more than seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.69 mln people on these benefits, less than a year ago and marginally less than two years ago. In Canada, building consents were expected to fall back in April after the spurt in March, but they fell more than expected. Residential consents fell -5.5% and commercial consents fell an outsized -10.5%, both from the prior month. From a year ago, these consent levels were +2.5% high, but that is on a value basis and construction PPI rose +2.8% in that same time. In Europe, the ECB raised its policy interest rate by +25 bps to 2.4% as widely expected, it first increase since 2023. It also raised its inflation expectation to 3% in 2026 and cut its growth forecast slightly to +0.8% this year and to 1.2% in 2027. In Indonesia, their financial crisis is intensifying with their currency in freefall and their stock market too. The worry is it may drive a social crisis at our backdoor. In Australia, the Melbourne Institutes survey of inflation expectations dipped in June to 5.5% following a dip in May after they peaked at 5.9% in April. The June result was well below the 6.5% jump some expected. But remember, their fuel tax concession (50%) is expected to end at the end of this month. If it does, it could put upward pressure on consumer inflation. (April actual CPI came in at 4.2% and the May result will be released on June 24.) In contrast wage expectations have remained unchanged for the past seven months. The World Bank said overnight that global growth is leaking away due solely to the Middle East handbrake. It now sees 2026 expanding at 2.5%, and 2027 at 2.8%. These are slowdowns from 2025's +2.9% expansion and the prospect is slowest growth since the pandemic. Meanwhile OPEC bravely says that world oil demand will recover quickly after the current Persian Gulf issues are resolved. Global container freight rates rose another +3% last week to be level with the elevated rates of a year ago, when the Houthis were threatening the Red Sea access. It is all about outbound rates from China to Europe. In fact, China to the USWC rates are holding, but much lower on a year-ago basis. Bulk cargo rates fell -12% in the past week to be +68% higher than year-ago levels. And official forecasters are now certain enough to warn of a severe El Niño climate event starting soon. The US issued its official warning after Australia said the chances are rising. We are being warned to expect 2026-27 to bring global risks of intense heat waves, sharp drops in rainfall in some key areas but deluges in other parts. India is expected to get a weak monsoon. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.45%, down -9 bps for the day. The price of gold has recovered +US$54 from yesterday at US$4152/oz. Silver is up US$1.50 at US$66/oz. Oil prices are down -US$5 from yesterday at just under US$86.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$89.50/bbl. Hormuz transits are resuming today with 69 in the past 24 hours as owners rush to get their ships out. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just under 58.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 82.7 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.8 which is also little-changed from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,223 and up +2.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.0%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.  Today we lead with news the US is frustrated with Iran and is promising even more military strikes. The deal Trump thought was close, isn't. The escalation threat has oil and financial markets reacting badly. But first today, American CPI inflation jumped from 3.8% in April to 4.2% in May, largely as expected and largely based on higher fuel costs. This is its highest since April 2023. Today's geopolitical events and markets reactions probably mean it isn't finished with the current trajectory. Actually, for March, April and now May, their CPI index rose +2.0% in just those months, so the rate being experienced by consumers (annualised +8%?) is very much higher than the annual one reported. The White House reaction was very unexpected: Trump said, "You know, I love the inflation." Certainly, financial markets were unimpressed. There was a large jump in American mortgage applications last week even though benchmark home loan interest rates stayed elevated at about 6.6%. After six weeks of holding back, it seems borrowers are coming to accept that they have to pay these higher rates. Remember pre-war, these rates were under 6.1%. The jump in applications this week were from both new borrowers and those needing refinance. For a seventh straight week, and including stocks in their strategic reserve, American crude oil stocks dropped in the latest update, and by almost double the rate expected. Today's US Treasury 10yr bond auction was well supported and yield's rose only modestly for this one, coming in at 4.48% median (4.54% high bid), up from 4.41% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. In Canada, their central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% as expected, and for the fifth consecutive time. They had inflation at 2.8% in April so, so far, there is little evidence higher energy prices are being passed on or embedded in their consumer cost base. Data out in Japan yesterday shows their May producer prices rose +6.3% from a year ago, up from 5.3% in April and the fastest rise since the end of the pandemic in March 2023. After the April spurt, they rose another +0.9% in May alone. China's CPI inflation level was low and stable in May, coming in at 1.2% from a year ago, unchanged from April. Beef prices were up +4.2% however and lamb prices up +6.2%. Egg prices are up +6.6% on the same basis and a five year high. These were more than offset by a -16% drop in Chinese pork prices though. And dairy prices fell -1.2% on the same year-ago basis. But China's producer prices are not so calm. In fact they rose an outsized +5.8% in May from a year ago for industrial products, up 3.9% overall when you broaden the categories to include food, clothing and other goods produced for consumers. Apart from the pandemic, the headline 3.9% is the highest they have had since August 2018. In Australia, we should note that their emergency petrol tax concession will end at the end of June. That will juice up their inflation if it isn't extended. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.54%, up +1 bp for the day.  The price of gold will start today down another -US$160 from yesterday at US$4098/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at US$64.50/oz. Oil prices are up +US$3 from yesterday at just under US$91.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$94.50/bbl. Hormuz transits are almost non-existent today, only 2 in the past 24 hours.. The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.8 which is down -10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$61,781 and little-changed (up +0.3%) from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.7%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news uncertainty swirls in the Middle East as Iran has shot down an American Apache helicopter (and Trump is looking more like Jimmy Carter by the day). But more ships are transiting (paying Iran's toll), and that extra oil is easing the global price. But first locally, the overnight dairy Pulse auction delivered lower prices for the four products offered. AMF was down -4.6% from last week's full auction. Butter was down -0.6%. SMP was down -5.5% and WMP was down -3.5%. But an intervening -2% fall in the NZD took some of the sting out of these retreats. In the US, NFIB Business Optimism Index fell again and to its lowest since October 2024.. These businesses are struggling with "significant and unpredictable hikes in fuel prices", which they find harder to pass on to their customers compared to their larger corporate competitors. The weekly ADP jobs report said new private sector jobs created were lower last week at +29,000, in fact their lowest since the end of March. American existing home sales actually rose in May to an annualised rate of 4.17 mln, its highest of the year. This was impressive because mortgage interest rates rose in the period and seems not to have been the handbrake sometimes assumed. All the same, unsold inventory rose. There was a small but notable increase in demand for the overnight and popular US Treasury 3 year bond which delivered a median yield of 4.15% (high of 4.19%), sharply up on the 3.92% median at the prior equivalent event a month ago. In April, US exports of goods and services rose +2.6% from March +12.5% from a year ago, helped by better exports of crude oil, AI computer gear and aircraft, but most offset by a quite sharp fall in tourism receipts. Imports were up +1.9% from March, up +9.1% from a year ago, dominated by capital goods and rising transport and travel cost by Americans. Their trade deficit narrowed slightly, but big trade deficits remained with Taiwan (-$19.3 nln), Vietnam (-$19.3 bln), Mexico (-$14.8 bln), China (-$12.0 bln), the EU (-$7.2 bln), and Canada (-$6.2 bln). The Texas screwworm outbreak is spreading which will affect their beef trade. The outbreak now includes for a dog. Meanwhile, Canadian exports rose +1.6% from the previous month to C$75.2 bln in April, the highest on record and up +24.7% from the same month a year ago. Imports rose too, but they still managed to report their best monthly trade surplus since January 2025 and their best April since 2008. Across the Pacific, China's exports surged +19.4% in May from a year ago to a record high of US$377 bln, far exceeding forecasts of +15% and accelerating sharply from April's 14.1% rise. It was the fastest increase since February and gave them a trade surplus of +US$105.4 bln. However, Chinese oil imports hit an eight year low in May. Across the strait, Taiwan said its exports rose even more impressively, up +52% from a year ago. Their imports were up +55%. That means a trade surplus for them of +US$17.9 bln, middle-range for what they have had since October 2025 and wildly higher than in any prior period Japanese machine tool orders fell in May from April after falling in April too. But they remain up +37% from a year ago. The monthly easing was for orders from both domestic and foreign customers. Staying in Japan, reports are growing that their central bank will raise its policy rate by +25 bps to 1.0% when they meet on Friday week. And they are likely to pause their JGB bond sell-down program that is underway. And in Indonesia, their central bank held an emergency meeting to assess the economic crisis growing in their financial and fx markets. At that meeting they hikes their policy rate to 5.50%, a hike of +25 bps. They last met only three weeks ago when they raised their rate by +25 bps at that time too. They started 2026 with a 4.75% rate. Their actions are required to stop the Indonesian currency falling sharply, down -7.8% in 2026. In Europe, the Netherlands blocked an American company from buying a local firm that handles its national ID system, saying it would create a “threat to the public interest.” The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.53%, down -2 bps for the day. The price of gold will start today down -US$75 from yesterday at US$4258/oz. Silver is down a sharp -US$3.50 at just under US$65/oz. Oil prices are down -US$2.50 from yesterday at just under US$88.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$91.50/bbl. Hormuz transits are still very low despite the pricing optimism. China's crude imports dropped to around 7.8 million barrels per day last month, the lowest level in more than eight years and nearly 4 million barrels per day below the 2025 average. Weaker shipments to from the world's largest oil importer even if caused by Hormuz, combined with record US exports and emergency reserve releases, has limited the price impact of the Middle East conflict. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 58.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.9 which is up +10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$61,545 and down -2.95% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.6%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that yesterday's renewed hostilities between Israel and Iran seem to have been paused. And financial markets are reacting as though this is something permanent, a deluded reading of even recent history. It is more an excuse to bet on higher equity prices again. Away from these irrational markets and after hitting a two and a half year high in April at 3.5%, American inflation expectations for one year ahead slipped back to 3.2% in May, according to the latest national New York Fed survey update. Given that April's actual inflation was recorded at 3.8%, this represents a sanguine view of what lies ahead. More broadly, the same survey shows that households expect their financial situation to deteriorate. It is not only households. In a focus on the SME sector, another national review found them deeply pessimistic about 2026 prospects. Across the Pacific in Japan, some top-line data out yesterday for the March quarter points to improving metrics. GDP came in with a +1.8% growth rate and better than expected (+1.3%). And bank lending data shot up in May, up +5.7% and easily exceeding the expansion of +5.4% in April from a year ago. In China, construction machinery sales were strong in May with excavator sales up +36% from year-ago levels as infrastructure projects gain momentum. Things are not so bright for car sales in China. Sales ‌dropped -22% from a year earlier to 1.53 million vehicles in May, the eighth consecutive monthly fall. Even EV sales fell (-5%). In Germany, they posted some negative factory order data for April. They were down -3.8% on an inflation adjusted basis from the previous month, but that came after a +4.5% rise on the same basis for March. From a year ago, also in real terms, German factory orders were up +1.6% in April. And factory sales didn't decline in April either. In the Persian Gulf, to cross the Strait of Hormuz, the transit trickle is still low but not zero. Only ten ships crossed in the past 24 hours. It has now been 100 days since the crisis began and it seems Iran is successfully tolling the Strait, according to maritime sources. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.55%, up just +1 bp for the day.  The price of gold will start today up +US$5 from yesterday at US$4333/oz. Silver is up +US$1 at just under US$68.50/oz. Oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday at just on US$91/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$94/bbl and up +US$1. Hormuz transits are still very low despite the pricing optimism. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at this time at just over 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 82.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.8 which is up +20 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$63,416 and up +1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news US benchmark interest rates rose notably after their apparently strong labour market report. But first, locally this week it will be about migration and travel data for April, possibly plus the May PMIs. In Australia, we will be watching for the April building permit data, along with updates for May for their consumer and business confidence surveys. In the US, they will release its consumer and producer inflation figures, the final price gauges before this month's Federal Reserve decision at the end of next week, in addition to existing home sales and their trade balance. Likewise, trade data and inflation data is coming from China as well as new yuan lending data. Trade data from Taiwan will drop this week too. And at the end of the week we will get central bank decisions from Canada and the ECB. On the corporate front, SpaceX will release what is likely to be the largest IPO on record. Over the weekend, China said its foreign exchange reserves swelled again and are now at US$3.44 tln and their highest since October 2015. They added a bit more gold but its value eased in the past month, so this wasn't a factor in the expanding reserves. Also, there was data out for Taiwanese inflation (firmish but low at 2.2%), Singapore retail (doing better with a +5.4% rise from a year ago), and an Indian central bank policy rate review (holding at 5.25%). None of these moved markets. Meanwhile, India said its Q1-2026 economic expansion rolled on with a better growth rate (+7.8%) than markets were expecting (+7.2%). In the US, the anticipated non-farm payrolls report delivered a strong result over the weekend, with a +172,000 jobs gain at the headline level and more than double the expected +82,000 gain. From a year ago, that is a rise of +503,000. But this data is the seasonally adjusted result from payroll employment. Looking more broadly, US civilian employment rose +149,000 in May from April but is -504,000 lower than year-ago levels. It is clearly very tough indeed for the unincorporated self employed. Of the headline jobs gain, +70,000 were in their hospitality sector (expecting a soccer World Cup boost?), local government added +55,000 jobs, healthcare +35,000, social assistance +17,000. There we no changes or declines in the manufacturing, IT and administration sectors, and little in the construction sector. Basically, lower paid jobs rose, higher paid ones shrank. The US no longer releases details of full-time, part-time job changes or detail. Total American consumer debt rose by +US$21 in May, following a downwardly revised +US$22 bln gain in April. This was slightly more than expected. Revolving credit, which includes credit card debt, rose +US$14 bln while nonrevolving credit, which includes vehicle and student loans, rose +US$8 bln in the month. This data shows sustained consumer demand for debt despite elevated borrowing costs and the rising interest-rate environment. And that, along with the gritty labour market questions, has driven a pullback in attitudes, to a more risk-off, defensive posture at the end of last week. More investors see the US Fed pushing ahead with rate hikes earlier than anticipated to try and not be blindsided from rising inflation getting embedded. After all, the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, and oil prices have ended the week higher than where they started. In turn that risk-off has driven US benchmark interest rates up, equity markets lower, and the US currency very much higher, Canada also released its May jobs data over the weekend and that was better than expected too. They added +88,000 jobs when a gain of only +10,000 was anticipated. Better, their full-time jobs grew +154,000 in the month, as part-time jobs shrank. Their jobless rates fell notably to 6.6%, from 6.9% in April and continuing the downward trend that started in October 2025. A stronger jobs market may also give the Bank of Canada cover to raise rates to get ahead of their inflation threats, too. In the EU, Ireland has had a stunning reversal of fortune, with their economy contracting more than -12% in Q1-2026. It alone was enough to twist the overall EU GDP lower. Ireland's multinational-dominated sectors contracted by -27% in Q1-2026 with their domestic sectors expanding by +0.4% and more in line with the other EU countries. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.54%, unchanged from this time Saturday but up +11 bps for the week.  The price of gold will start today up +US$4 from Saturday at US$4328/oz. That is down -US$227/oz (or -5.1%) from this time last week and about its lowest level of the year. Silver is down -50 USc at just under US$67.50/oz, down -10% for the week. Oil prices are little-changed from Saturday just on US$90.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$93/bbl. Hormuz transits are still very low despite the pricing optimism. A week ago these prices were US$87.50/bbl and US$91.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar has stayed down from Saturday at this time at just under 58 USc. From a week ago it is down -190 bps. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.6 which is down -10 bps from Saturday, down -170 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$62,246 and recovering +3.4% from this time Saturday and still falling. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.1%.  You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

This episode examines the first round of Colombia's presidential election, which took place on May 31, 2026, and previews the June 21st runoff between two starkly different candidates. Gimena Sánchez-Garzoli, WOLA's director for Colombia and the Andes, provides deep insight into the candidates, voter concerns, and the election's implications for U.S.-Colombia relations.  The first round produced some surprises. While human rights activist and senator Iván Cepeda advanced as expected with 40.9% of the vote, the first-place finisher was criminal defense lawyer and political outsider Abelardo de la Espriella with 43.7%. Taken together, right-of-center candidates already exceed 50%, suggesting challenging math for Cepeda in the runoff.  Sánchez-Garzoli notes that despite fears of political violence—given the assassination of candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay in the past year and Colombia's deteriorating security situation—election day proceeded peacefully.  The candidates represent fundamentally different visions for Colombia. De la Espriella, a wealthy lawyer who once advised the AUC paramilitary group during peace talks and has represented controversial figures, proposes an "iron fist" security approach. His platform includes ending peace negotiations, building ten mega-prisons, mass detentions, aggressive coca eradication, and legalizing firearms ownership. Economically, he embraces Argentina's Milei-style deregulation and reviving the fossil fuel sector. He has also proposed withdrawing Colombia from the Inter-American Court of Human Rights and United Nations human rights bodies.  Cepeda, by contrast, is a philosopher and longtime human rights advocate whose father, a Communist Party senator, was assassinated during the systematic elimination of the Patriotic Union party. Known for his measured, intellectual style, Cepeda was instrumental in Colombia's 2016 Peace Accord and would continue President Gustavo Petro's approach—advancing agrarian reform, pursuing negotiations with armed groups through "total peace," and transitioning away from extractive economic models.  Voter concerns centered overwhelmingly on security and the economy. Sánchez-Garzoli explains that while Petro's ambitions of addressing centuries of inequality in just a few years proved unrealistic, the security situation has genuinely deteriorated.  U.S.-Colombia relations under either candidate promise turbulence, though of different kinds. President Trump publicly endorsed de la Espriella while labeling Cepeda a "radical leftist Marxist." De la Espriella has expressed interest in joining Trump's "Shield of the Americas" security initiative and implementing a "Plan Colombia 2.0," while Cepeda has condemned the U.S. "boat strikes" and other military interventions as violations of Latin American sovereignty and international law.  Looking toward the June 21 runoff, Sánchez-Garzoli warns that Colombia remains fragile and at risk of violence, particularly given President Petro's claims of fraud and the close expected margin. The choices of centrist voters remain uncertain, and it is hard to predict an outcome. 

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with Hezbollah has rejected being part of a US-Iran accommodation, and Israel is continuing to attack it in Beirut and southern Lebanon. Despite this, markets still hope that a ceasefire can be agreed and the Strait of Hormuz opened. They are pricing it will, but it is shut still today. Elsewhere and in the US, there were 97,000 announced job cuts in May, the most since January and the highest May since 2020 and the pandemic effect - and prior to that the highest since this tracking began in 1999. Most of the current layoffs are in the tech industry, and due to AI displacement. Markets await the May non-farm payrolls report tomorrow and the expectation is for a modest +85,000 net jobs gain. This is despite the private ADP report indicating a higher level. US initial jobless claims were little-changed last week at 188,000 although seasonal factors would have expected a solid -10,000 fall from that level. There are now 1.64 mln people on these benefits. lower than year ago levels. And staying in the US, they have found the flesh-eating screwworm in their Texas cattle herd, another reason their beef industry is unlikely to be able to sustain its output. The EU said its retail sales volume growth was weak in April, up +0.9%, up +1.0% in the euro area from a year ago. From the prior month, these volumes dipped. But this dip actually doesn't interrupt the rising trend in place since late 2023 We are ending the week with the price of some key commodities like copper, tin and aluminium hold just off their recent peaks. China is facing broad pushback at the level of subsidising it gives its steel industry. The OECD singled them out for criticism urging coordinated action against them to save capability around the world. A new round of defensive trade barriers will likely follow. Chinese over-capacity is enabled by these subsidies and it drives down prices everywhere as Chinese companies rush to quit stocks they can't sell at home. The geopolitical toll on the logistics industry is starting to bite. Global container freight rates surged +23% this week from the prior week to be up basically level with year-ago levels (which were unusually high due to the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea). Most of this is due to the hikes in rates for the outbound China trade routes. Meanwhile bulk cargo freight rates eased back a minor -3% after their recent peak last week. In Australia, AI is being put to use driving legal claims by amateurs. Courts are being flooded with AI written plaintiff claims, especially for personal injury, unfair dismissal, rent disputes, and 'pain & suffering' claims. New powers are being rushed through the Canberra parliament to try and stem the flood. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.47%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$41 at US$4478/oz. Silver is up +50 USc at just under US$74/oz. Oil prices are down -US$4 just over US$92/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$94.50/bbl and down -US$3.50. Hormuz remains shut however despite the pricing optimism. The Kiwi dollar is firmer from yesterday at this time at 58.8 USc, up +20 bps. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just under 50.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3 which is up +10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$63,013 and down another -4.3% from this time yesterday and still falling. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just under +/- 3.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news intensified clashes in the Persian Gulf has oil prices rising, little transit activity in the Strait of Hormuz, and significant disconnect from Trump's claim that both sides are still negotiating. Clearly they aren't, In the world economy, and first in the US, mortgage applications fell again last week, a third consecutive weekly easing mostly driven by lower refinance activity. Mortgage interest rates eased back however even if they remain at close to one year highs. Ahead of this weekend's US non-farm payrolls report (expect +85,000), private businesses added +122,000 jobs in May according to the ADP survey, a new high since January 2025, compared to a downwardly revised +105,000 in April and above forecasts of +117,000. Hiring was broad-based they report and say it augers well going into the summer hiring season. But this isn't backed up by the US services PMIs for the US. The May ISM services PMI reported a good expansion, about the average it has been in 2026 and slightly higher than expected. Good new order flows are behind the result. But the same firms reported contracting staffing levels and faster input cost pressures. The parallel S&P Global services PMI was less upbeat, noting a muted increase in business activity, optimism faltering and employment falling solidly. Overall, it is a jobless expansion, these PMIs both say. US factory orders are reflecting some of the stockpiling effects we have noted earlier. In April these orders rose +13.0% in nominal dollar terms above year-ago levels. But without aircraft and defense orders, they were up +5.8% - still a good result but mostly accounted for by inflation. And remember PPI rose +6.0% in the same twelve month period. American crude oil stocks fell again, for the sixth consecutive week and the largest fall in this period. Over the past year, it has fallen more only in three specific weeks but each of those were not in a continuing series. Their strategic oil stocks are now at their lowest in 22 years. The US Fed's Beige Book surveys for May reported most of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts had slight-to-modest increases in growth, though a handful experienced flat or slightly declining activity. Labour markets remained tight but were cooling. Business respondents said rising input costs for nonlabour inputs were largely able to be passed on to consumers. Consumer spending was described as mixed, heavily influenced by affordability concerns and shifts in discretionary income. In Canada key housing markets in Ontario, new listings have fallen, as have prices, and more homes are selling but also, more are selling at a loss. In Japan, their central bank will meet next in a bit over a week and their Governor has indicated that rate hikes will be discussed to weigh against rising inflation, even that pushed by higher energy costs. According to the private S&P Global (RatingDog) services PMI for China, that sector is expanding on a faster basis, much stronger than as reported by their official data. New business is expanding and they are hiring faster. But they also face their highest cost pressure since October 2023. Meanwhile, Australia released its Q1-2026 GDP data today, saying their economy expanded +2.5% in real terms over the past year. But the growth rate slowed in the March quarter from the December 2025 quarter. Rising interest rates and significantly higher fuel costs in the March month likely created an environment for more cautious consumer behaviour. This resulted in reduced spending across a range of household expenditure categories. And exports fell. The unders and overs likely balanced out but the level of spending on equipment for new data centers was so large it might have accounted for all the Q1 gain. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.49%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today down -US$45 at US$4437/oz. Silver is down -US$1.50 at just under US$73.50/oz. Oil prices are up another +US$2.50 just over US$96/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$98/bbl and up +US$2. Hormuz remains shut. The Kiwi dollar is lower from yesterday at this time at 58.6 USc, down -60 bps. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -40 bps at just under 50.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.2 which is down -50 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$65,847 and down another -2.4% from this time yesterday and still falling. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest however at just under +/- 1.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of a changing of the guard. Countries are moving away from US Treasuries as a core reserve asset, replacing it with gold. At the same time, crypto values including for bitcoin, seem to be fading fast. But first up today, there was a full dairy auction overnight, one that brought slightly lower overall prices, with the USD index falling -0.6% mainly on -3% lower SMP prices. Milk fat products like AMF. Butter and Cheddar all rose, offsetting the fall in powder prices. But the NZD has also strengthened, so the result in NZD terms was a -2.0% fall. A pull-back in demand from China is part of this story too. In the US, they reported a surge in April job openings, their most in 18 months, notably in California and other western states. It is a services related thing, with manufacturing jobs not really participating. Meanwhile, the US RCM/TIPP economic sentiment survey fell slightly in June from may, but to its lowest in two years. And the US Logistics Managers Index is showing the full impacts of the current supply-chain disruptions and stockpiling. It held in May at its highest since the pandemic stress period. It is increasing at an increasing rate for inventory costs, warehousing capacity, and freight prices. In China, we should note that it is wheat harvest season and that they expect a bumper result. At the same time, both Australian and US farmers are hesitating in their plans for wheat as high fertiliser and fuel costs threaten to make the prospects very uncertain. In the EU and as expected, CPI inflation firmed up to 3.2% in May from 3.0% in April. Their core inflation rose as well. It seems to be only about rising fuel costs at present with the spread wider quite limited. Will the ECB hike its policy rate on June 11? Markets are betting 100% it will. In Australia, they have slipped into their first trade deficit since 2017 in the March 2026 quarter. Exports of minerals fell (except for gold) while imports of data center equipment surged. Globally, it is worth noting again that aluminium, zinc, copper and tin are all now either at record highs or at post-pandemic highs. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.46%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today down -US$9 at US$4482/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at just over US$75/oz. Interestingly, an ECB analysis released overnight has highlighted that after the run-up in the gold price, at the same time as the value of US Treasuries fell, gold was the largest single asset held for 'foreign reserves'. (see Chart 7) Oil prices are up another +US$2 just under US$93.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now on US$96/bbl and up +US$1.50. Hormuz remains shut. The Kiwi dollar is lower from yesterday at this time at 59.2 USc, down -30 bps. Against the Aussie we are also down -40 bps at 82.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just under 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62.7 which is down -20 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$67,464 and down a sharp -5.9% from this time yesterday and falling. Crypto funds are getting excess redemptions at present. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just under +/- 3.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the scale of Trump's strategic failure with Iran is becoming clearer. Iran holds the key cards, it seems, and there is little but bluster and renewing its military flailing he can do about it. Even Israel seem to be ignoring Trump's potency, which is another signal of regional chaos. Iranian media reported that Tehran had suspended communications with Washington, following the attacks in Lebanon, and will move to fully close the Strait of Hormuz - and open new fronts in their war pushback. We are just going to have to live with the resulting chronic mess. And that probably means elevated inflation for much longer and all that brings with it - like supply chain disruptions and logistic twists. Stockpiling, itself an indication of economic inefficiency, is the current way the global economy is reacting, in turn an inflation enhancer. First today in the US, that stockpiling is showing up in their two May factory PMI reports. The S&P Global version recorded output growth rose to its strongest level since April 2022 as buyers scramble to beat price rises and supply delays. Input costs rose at their fastest rate since mid-2022. Meanwhile the ISM version reported very similar conditions, even if at a slightly lesser level. In Canada, their factory PMI version reported that growth was sustained in May as output, new orders and employment all rose. But like in the US, this is all trying to beat the cost pressures and supply chain challenges that are intensifying. In Japan, their May factory PMI remained unusually strong. But firms there signaled further strong increases in production with sales Input costs and selling prices rising at some of the steepest rates on record. Stock building efforts are still very much in evidence amid the ongoing and substantial supply chain disruptions. In South Korea, their factory upturn, already strong, gathered more pace amid stockpiling efforts. Output rises are their strongest in five years. Price pressures persist and remain near record highs. Meanwhile jobs growth is now at its highest since March 2013 as the outlook improves. Meanwhile Korean exports surged +53% from a year ago to a record US$88 bln for the month. (For perspective, New Zealand exports run at about US$6 bln per month average. Australia is about US$32 bln/mth.) Their biggest increases were to China, although there were outsized export gains to the US. Their explosive growth is largely around their IT sector. In Taiwan, their factory output expanded at quickest rate since July 2021 in May. New orders continue to rise sharply. Firms report intense cost pressures here too, amid severe supply chain disruption. Stockpiling efforts are driving a quicker upturn in purchasing activity, they say. In China, their non-official S&P Global factory PMI was good, but nothing like their smaller neighbours. Growth rates for new orders and output remain good, although export orders fell. Input price inflation eased for first time in six months. They also have stockpiling effects as factories raised input stocks because supplier delivery times stretched out again. Indian industrial production stayed expanding in April and at a good rate, similar to what they have had since July 2025, and showing none of the slowdown analysts had been expecting to see in their data. EU inflation expectations as tracked by the broad ECB survey shows them unchanged at 4.0% in April. Analysts had expected them to rise to 4.3% but that didn't eventuate. The EU factory PMI is still expanding but at quite a modest rate even as they have the same cost pressures everyone else is reporting. In Australia, and in something of a surprise, the Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge recorded a -0.3% fall in May from April, after consecutive rises in the previous two months. The fall was primarily influenced by lower transport-related prices, attributable largely to fuel and the excise tax rollback. For the year to May this gauge reports inflation at 4.4%. The monthly cost of living also declined in May from April, particularly for self-funded retirees. The updated Australian PMI shows little real expansion with the steepest fall in new orders since last October being recorded for May. But prices are being pushed up all the same with selling price inflation at a 45-month high as sharp rises in input costs keep coming. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.47%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday.  Wall Street has started its week ignoring the Middle East situation with the S&P500 up +0.4% and enough to claim another new record high. The Nasdaq is up +0.7%. Both markets consumed by the big tech IPOs underway.  The price of gold will start today down -US$48 at US$4491/oz. Silver is up +50 USc at just under US$75.50/oz. Oil prices are up +US$4 just under US$91.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now on US$94.50/bbl and up +US$3.50. Oil had been starting to trade like Hormuz was open, but no more. The Kiwi dollar is lower from yesterday at this time at 59.5 USc, down -50 bps. Against the Aussie we are also down -50 bps at 82.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at just under 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62.9 which is down -40 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$71.684 and down -2.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the US and Iran have apparently agreed a 60 day truce, pending Trump's signoff. All the while, both sides traded attacks in the region. The small number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz has virtually dried up. Meanwhile, US jobless claims slipped last week to 185,600 and by about what seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.68 mln people on these benefits, less than one and two years ago. There was a sharp drop in new home sales reported for April, and they were -11.3% lower than year ago levels. Rising mortgage rates is weighing heavily on this sector. But they reported a sharp increase in durable goods orders in April, up +19% from a year ago, up notably from March. This is where we see the full effect of stockpiling as buyers try to get ahead of rising inflation. One reason was a +41% jump in capital goods on the same basis. But excluding defense and aircraft orders, the increase was modest. The second estimate of GDP growth for Q1-2026 is out and it was revised lower, mainly on lower consumer spending and investment levels than in the initial estimate. They now say the US economy expanded +1.6% in the period. They also released the April data for US personal income and personal spending. This showed that personal disposable income fell from March, up +2.5% from a year ago, while personal consumption expenditures rose, up +5.9% from a year ago. In fact, their April PCE inflation measure rose to 3.8%, its highest since May 2023 and the end of the pandemic effect, and prior to that the highest since this data was collated in 2017. Undoubtedly, this has the Fed's attention, especially the accelerating nature of it. US crude oil and petrol stocks fell again last week, but 'only' by about the levels expected. that extends the fall to five consecutive weeks, all substantial, and coming after three prior weeks of modest or no-change outcomes. Retail pump prices for petrol are still +48% higher than at the start of the Iran-US conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz. There was a US Treasury 7yr note auction overnight and the yield increase was not as fierce as yesterday's event. This one delivered a median yield of 4.24% (high 4.29%), up from the 4.12% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. In Canada, their central bank has released and updated Financial Stability Report which found that Canada's financial system has functioned well through a challenging year. Households and businesses remain in stable financial condition, and banks have strengthened their capacity to absorb shocks. Meanwhile they reported that average weekly earnings rose +3.5% in March from a year ago, a faster pace of increase. They have CPI inflation of +2.8% at the same time so Canadian employees are generally staying ahead of the cost pressures. The Korean central bank kept its official rate unchanged yesterday at 2.5%, as expected. Updated Australian household spending data for April shows it fell -1.1% month-on-month (on a current price, seasonally adjusted basis) to be +4.9% higher than in April 2025. In the same period CPI inflation rose 4.2%. The weak outcome is being attributed to the sharp hike in fuel costs, and compensating pullbacks elsewhere. It is their first fall in household spending in four months. And staying in Australia, they said private new capital expenditure rose +6.5% in the March quarter to be +14.6% higher than the March 2025 quarter. This strong growth is largely on the back of significant investment in data centers, up +96% and a new record high. Investment in mining was flat. The Middle East war lead to a -3.4% fall in air passenger demand in April. But Asia/Pacific international demand rose +3.0% from a year ago. For air cargo, demand was up +4.0% despite the turmoil, up +11.3% in the Asia/Pacific region. Global container shipping freight rates rose +3.2% last week from the prior week to be +12% higher than year-ago levels. This is largely driven by rates from China to the EU. Transpacific rates from China to the US West Coast actually fell last week. As did trade volumes. Meanwhile bulk cargo rates rose +4.4% last week, to be a massive +140% higher than a year ago. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.45%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$57 at US$4506/oz. Silver is back up +US$1.50 at just under US$76/oz. Oil prices have fallen -50 USc to just on US$89/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now at US$93.50/bbl and down -US$1.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from yesterday at this time at 59.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +20 bps at just under 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.8 which is up +40 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$73,455 and down -1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.0%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and because Monday is a New Zealand holiday, we'll do this again on Tuesday.

Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news commodity markets are betting all-in that a deal between the US and Iran will unlock the Strait of Hormuz soon. An Iranian State TV report has triggered the optimism. (And even though the US has denied it.) More ships are transiting, but it is still only a fraction of 'normal'. However it is enough to drive the price of crude oil lower. But despite all that, financial markets seem to remain unconvinced, or at least they have turned defensive due to what lies ahead of a resolution. How well any deal will stick between the two parties who have become quite transactional remains to be seen. Certainly the US is unlikely to be trusted to maintain the deal by both Iran, and even its own traditional allies. Iran will be Iran, agreeing but preparing for another attack/fight. The one thing the US/Israeli thing has done is solidify the Iranian regime's position at home. It no longer has internal dissent or street challenges, and it will thank Trump for that. In the US, mortgage applications fell sharply last week, as US 30 year mortgage rates rose. Most of the fall is from the outsized retreat in refinance activity (-18%), although new purchase activity did dip as well. Those mortgage rates rose to their highest level since August 2025. Meanwhile, the ADP tracking of private payrolls showed the good levels continued last week, even if there was a small dip posted. And that is supported by factory survey data out from the Richmond Fed for the mid-Atlantic states area. New order levels rose notable. And firms expected growth in prices paid to moderate slightly over the next 12 months. But there was no improvement in the forward expectations, despite these improvements. Meanwhile the Dallas Fed services sector survey remained quite negative, even if less so in May than in April. But their uncertainty metric is notably less. There was a US Treasury 5yr Note auction overnight and that delivered a yield of 4.13% (4.18% high), up sharply from the 3.90% yield at the prior equivalent event a month ago. In Australia, consumer price inflation came in lower than most analysts were expecting for Aril. It rose 4.2% from a year ago, lower than the March 4.6%, and lower than the expected 4.4%. From March, CPI prices rose +0.4%, also lower in the same way. A key reason is that fuel prices fell -7.0% from March to April, after rising 33% in the previous month. The fall this month includes the halving of the fuel excise on 1 April. Fuel prices are still +23.5% higher than in February and before the impact of the Middle East conflict. Apart from fuel, outsized rises were recorded for 'housing' (+6.3%) and 'clothing' (+5.9%). The main contributors to the annual housing rise were Electricity (+22.5%), New dwellings (+4.7%) and Rents (+3.5%). And staying in Australia, Westpac has been hit with a AU$26 mln civil penalty for not dealing with clients who were struggling financially in a proper way. Remediation of all costs to those clients was AU$1.7 mln. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.48%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today down another -US$49 at US$4450/oz. Silver is down -US$1.50 at just under US$74.50/oz. Oil prices have fallen -US$4.50 to just on US$89.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now at US$95/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is up +60 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +110 bps at 82.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +50 bps at just under 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.4 which is up +60 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$74,765 and down -1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.0%. Join us later today for full coverage of the 2026 Budget release, an election budget of course. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news  traders who claimed to foresee a Trump 'victory' over Iran are getting a lesson in their susceptibility to propaganda. In the Middle East, US and Israeli struck a number of Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, hours after President Donald Trump had suggested negotiations with Tehran over an interim deal were progressing. Renewed aggression there and in Lebanon hardly seems to indicate talks are "going nicely". Both sides are in a chronic violent embrace, despite what they say. Oil prices are rising again; prospects for normalisation have faded significantly. First we should note there was another dairy Pulse auction overnight. This on saw the butter price recover notably, up +2% from the prior week's full auction, and the SMP price fall back notably, down -5% on that same basis. The WMP price dipped -1%. In the US, the Conference Board said its survey of consumer confidence edged down in May. But this dip wasn't quite as much as analysts had expected. Meanwhile the May Dallas Fed factory survey edged up slightly from its languid ("stable") state, a bit less than other similar surveys and less than expected. And the National Activity Index tracked by the Chicago Fed rose in April to its best reading since March 2025. The US Treasury's popular 2 year bond auction today brought sharply higher yields. The median yield today was 4.02% (high was 4.07%), a big shift up from the median 3.75% at the equivalent event a month ago. Across the Pacific, Singapore said its industrial production was up a very healthy +17.6% in April from a year ago, a rising trend and an expansion that is starting to rival Taiwan. And in Taiwan industrial production rose at a +15% rate in April from the same month a year ago, less than in March but still the third-best month ever. The base has been rising spectacularly for more than a year now so the outsized yeay-on-year growth will ease back from here. Their retail sales were up +5.2% in April, extending the outsized improvements to three consecutive months now. In Malaysia, it appears that they have instituted a 10% tariff on imported gold bars, surprising dealers and buyers alike. We should note that the aluminium price pushed up yet again, now very close to the brief pandemic-induced peak. Also tin prices are also near record highs, but this is nothing to do with the Middle East. Rather it relates to an Indonesian crackdown on illegal tin mining there, which has been extensive. They are going after the palm oil industry too, but over financial issues. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.49%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today down -US$64 at US$4499/oz. Silver is down -US$2at just under US$76/oz. Oil prices have risen +US$3.50 to just under US$94/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is up +US$3 to just on US$99.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -40 bps at 81.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at just under 50.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.8 which is down -30 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$75,906 and down -2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news oil prices have slid on hopes of a US-Iran deal. But despite US statements saying talks are "going nicely", Iran seems to be saying otherwise even if they are engaged in talks. But they seem to be talks-about-talks. Supposed insider information says the Strait of Hormuz will still be closed for another 60 days "for mine-clearing" (some say 30 days). And the US is adding new conditions each time the sides meet. Meanwhile, two LNG tankers have passed through the Strait in the past 24 hours. Just a reminder that the US is on a long weekend holiday and we won't be getting data updates from there until tomorrow morning from there. Pre-market activity (futures) is still active however. So first, like Japan, Singapore reported that their April CPI inflation pressure stayed very low and contained, up just +1.8% from a year ago, down -0.3% from March. Fuel costs are a small part of their index. The big mover was for clothing and that fell sharply. Singapore also said its Q1-2026 expansion was +6.0% from the same quarter a year ago, bettering the +5.7% expansion in the previous quarter, and better than forecast (+5.1%). But they are much less bullish on how the year will turn out, revising that to "2%-4%" as Trump's Gulf War takes its toll. But in Malaysia they reported a sharp jump in producer costs. Their producer prices rose +5.4% in April from a year ago, picking up from just a +1.1% rise in March. Prior to that, their PPI had fallen consistently since March 2025. This latest increase was also the most since August 2022, all driven by the mounting disruptions from the war in Iran. In China, they said foreign direct investment fell -10.3% in the first four months of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025. Things got off to a negative start, but regained some initiative in April. (April 2025 was a particularly weak base.) And global demand for yuan-denominated financing is rising, with panda and dim sum bond issuance climbing sharply in early 2026 as borrowers look to diversify away from costly US dollar funding. Panda bond issuance - yuan debt sold on the Chinese mainland by overseas institutions - topped US$13 bln in the first quarter, nearly half of last year's total. Dim sum bonds are those issued outside China, in yuan. They hit US$45 bln in the quarter, also on track to beat the 2025 level. Yuan funding comes with much lower interest rates than US dollar funding. We should probably also note that the Pope has issued an encyclical on how AI should be managed, by politicians and company managers. Like many previous Papal encyclicals, if is likely to be influential in debates about AI. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.47%, down -10 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today up +US$55 at US$4563/oz. Silver is up +US$2.50at just over US$78/oz. Oil prices have fallen -US$6.50 to just on US$90.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is down -US$7.50 to just on US$96.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 81.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just under 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62.1 which is up +10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,502 and up +1.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.2%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of an apparent agreement to wind back the crisis levels in the Persian Gulf. But details are not available. One thing is clear however, the US will be in a significantly worse position than if the Obama deal with Iran had not been torn up by Trump. Follow up statements by Trump that "It isn't even fully negotiated yet" suggest things aren't quite as close as he earlier suggested. And the headline news that one "Supertanker With Iraq Crude Exits Persian Gulf as Talks Continue" highlights how little progress has actually been made. But locally this week will be dominated by two big set piece announcements. First, the RBNZ will review its monetary policy settings and while no-one expects them to change, all eyes will on how they view the current inflation pressures. Markets have a +25 bps hike priced in for July 8. Following that, the Government will deliver its election Budget. It will likely be all "jam today" but couched as 'responsible restraint'. Credit rating agencies will be interested readers, especially around the credibility of the forecasting. And on Friday, there will be the usual month-end data released for April, plus a mountain of March quarter data released. And the RBNZ's Dashboard will also drop on Friday. In Australia, we will get the April CPI data on Wednesday, and the household spending update on Thursday, both expected to be elevated. It will be a busy week in Japan where we will get industrial production, retail sales, consumer confidence, and the unemployment rate. Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea will also decide on monetary policy. Data from China will be relatively light, but we will be interested in their FDI update. We should note that this will be a long weekend holiday in the US, Memorial Day, and their unofficial start of 'summer'. For the record, tradition states that investors should "sell in May and go away" until the end of this period on their Labor Day (September 7). This 'rule' is a warning that their summer financial markets can be volatile. Wall Street will re-open on Wednesday, NZT. Data from the US this week will limited, although PCE data, and the weekly ADP Employment update will be watched closely. As will the durable goods order data. Over the weekend the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to a record low in May, revised down sharply from the earlier and preliminary report. This is the third straight monthly decline. Petrol prices are getting the blame and it's cause, the chaotic Middle East adventure. The cost of living remained the top concern in this survey, with 57% of consumers spontaneously citing high prices as eroding their personal finances. Lower-income consumers and those without college degrees posted the steepest declines, as these groups are more sensitive to rising gas and essentials costs. Critically, consumers grew increasingly worried that inflation would spread beyond fuel prices in the long term. Year-ahead inflation expectations edged up to 4.8% from 4.7%, while long-run expectations climbed to 3.9% from 3.5%. Things may not get easier, even with slightly lower oil prices. Fed governor Waller said he supports removing the "easing bias" language from the Fed's outlook, and the next change could be a hike, even if it is some way off. He followed that up with remarks that it would be "crazy" to lower rates at this time. investors are bullish that the Iran-US war will end soon, but consumers are very negative about how all this is hurting them. Profits are remaining high, insulated from the rising costs, but household living costs are making consumers very grumpy. In Canada, and for a fourth month in a row, retail sales rose in April, but largely because petrol prices are higher. And that is even after the volume of petrol sales fell. In fact, overall sales volumes are trending lower. Canadian producer prices rose a sharp +2.0% in April from March, to be an uncomfortable +11.4% higher than year-ago levels. These changes are worse than expected. Despite all the global pressure their business are under, Japanese consumers avoided the impacts in April. Their inflation edged down to 1.4% from 1.5% in March. Food prices rose the least in 18 months amid a further slowdown in rice costs. After falling sharply in April, South Korean consumer sentiment rebounded in May, although not quite back to levels it was between June 2025 and March 2026. Still, this new level is above every month from December 2021 to May 2025 and was a much stronger bounce-back than was anticipated. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.57%, up +2 bps from this time Saturday. The price of gold will start today down -US$6 at US$4509/oz to be down -US$42 for the week. Silver is down -50 USc at just under US$75.50/oz. Oil prices have firmed +50 USc to just on US$97/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is up at just on US$104/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from Saturday at this time at 58.5 USc and up +10 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are holding at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62 which is down -10 bps from Saturday, up +10 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$76,601 and very little-changed, down just -0.1% from this time Saturday, but down -3.2% from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.4%. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

This talk examines how artworks operate across different contexts, from museums and galleries to public space and digital circulation. Drawing on over fifteen years of practice, artist Bahia Shehab reflects on how audience engagement shifts when art is encountered within institutional settings versus when it is publicly displayed and exposed to everyday life. Through examples from projects realized in cities such as New York, Istanbul, Marrakesh, and Hawaii, the talk considers how artworks travel, remain relevant across geographies, and are shaped by social media—particularly in regions where cultural infrastructure is limited. Speaker Bahia Shehab, Professor of Practice, Arts, Founding Director, TypeLab@AUC, AUC

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news no-one knows what is going on in the Iran-US 'negotiations' - least of all Trump. Ships are transiting at trickle-pace, but they tend to be large Chinese tankers. The bottom line is essentially 'no progress'. And although the benchmark 10 year bond yields are basically holding, yields for shorter terms are catching up, so a rate flattening is underway. US jobless claims dipped last week, and by marginally more than seasonal factors would have expected. Precautionary stockpiling by manufacturers is currently driving the US factory sector. New order growth slowed slightly but is still higher than normal in May, according to the latest S&P Global PMI for the US. But factory activity has taken a step up so output is rising at its fastest pace in four years. Driving all this is the need to get ahead of surging input costs, which are spiking in dramatic fashion. But the activity surge isn't everywhere. The Philly Fed's factory survey unexpectedly contracted in May. The Kansas City Fed's survey was little-changed from a modest expansion. Both saw very little respite from elevated input costs. US housing starts dipped in April from the good March levels. They are being held up on the same drive to get ahead of expected large cost increases. Across the Pacific in Korea, they are feeling producer price inflation at disarmingly high levels. They rose +2.5% in April to be 6.9% higher than year ago levels. But factory input costs rose an average of +11.3% mainly for fuel and other oil-based inputs. And this is very interesting. After a strong rise in February, Japanese machinery orders were expected to ease back in March, and they did, and by about the expected level. However, export orders remained very strong. They are expecting the April-June quarter to just be level-pegging with the same period a year ago. But this whole machinery manufacturing sector is in an upswing phase that started in 2023 and one that gathered some real impetus from mid-2025. That Japanese factory order data is confirmed in April export data out yesterday. Japan's exports jumped almost +15% to a near-record high of ¥10.5 tln in April, accelerating from an +11.5% gain in March, the fastest pace in three months and topping market forecasts. Exports grew to China (+15.5%), the US (+9.5%), ASEAN (+19.9%), the EU (+26.9%), and India (+8.9%). The May Japanese factory PMI is still expanding quite quickly but cost pressures are surging. In India, their PMI is little changed at a healthy expansion, but they report that further expansion is being capped by this rising cost pressure. EU consumer sentiment has stayed very low in May, even if it did bounce back from the ugly April level. The EU economy is being forecasted to slow down amid rising inflation following the energy shock. The Eurozone factory PMI is still expanding, but less so, and under heavy input cost pressure too. The Australian labour market is weakening with a turn lower in April. The number of employed people fell by -19,000 in April, while the number of unemployed people rose by +33,000. Markets had expected employment to rise by +10,000. Their jobless rate is now 4.5%, the highest in seven months. (The New Zealand jobless rate was 5.3% in March 2026.) The April PMIs are out for Australia, and they show weakening business conditions. The S&P Global factory PMI slowed to a stall with the private sector getting its steepest fall in new business in over four-and-a-half years. The service sector is now in contraction after March's stall. And staying in Australia, there has been an outpouring of voices, a veritable cacophony, claiming the loss of low tax capital gains is an affront, "punishing aspiration". "stifling innovation". Since when did 'aspiration' and 'innovation' rely so heavily on discounted taxes on the gains made from this activity? Inequitable taxes on this activity is just distorting behaviour and it helps misrepresent what is being achieved. It also loads more tax on those that can't avail themselves of these distortions. They all want a "level playing field" - unless the playing field is unlevel in their favour. What we are seeing is a classic lesson for anyone designing a tax system. Make it neutral and fair to start with. Global container freight rates rose +6% last week to be +10% above year-ago levels, driven largely by outbound rates from China to the EU. Bulk freight rates fell -5.7% in the past week, easing after the prior six week run-up reaction to Trump's Gulf War. But that still leaves them +125% higher than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.58%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today up +US$20 at US$4553/oz. Silver is up +US$1 at just under US$77/oz. Oil prices have dipped -50 USc to just over US$97/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now at just on US$103.50/bbl The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 50.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3 which is up +10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,759 and up +0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 1%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news there is optimism the Persian Gulf oil supply may be easing as satellite data showed three supertankers crossing the Strait. Most were Chinese. But there is still 160 tankers trapped in the Gulf as Iran now effectively controls the passage. US moves now depend on Trump's latest mood change. The latest update of US crude oil stocks showed another outsized reduction last week (-7.9 mlb barrels), and again far more than expected (-2.9 mln bbl). Petrol stocks fell too, but more modestly although that extends this decline to 14 straight weeks. US strategic reserves were reduced almost -10 mln barrels last week. And staying in the US, mortgage applications fell last week, all on new purchase applications because home loan interest rate benchmarks jumped. Refinance activity was stable however. Those rising interest rates are a market response to rising inflation. And the latest Fed minutes reveal that most Fed governors are worried too. A majority warned they would likely need to consider raising interest rates if inflation continued to run persistently above their 2% target. They wanted to drop its easing bias and signal its next move could be an interest-rate increase. This puts incoming Fed chairman Warsh in a tough spot because he was appointed to do the opposite. It looks like he won't have the votes. There was a US Treasury 20 year bond auction overnight and that brought slightly higher demand, no doubt in part because the median yield rose to 5.07% with a high of 5.12%. That is up sharply from 4.84% (4.88%) at the prior equivalent event a month ago. Across the Pacific, analysts and cottoning on to how strong Taiwan's export orders are flowing. For April they forecast a +52% rise, but it 'only' came in at +48% from year ago levels. Still these orders ran at their second highest level on record. Meanwhile, China reviewed its loan prime rates& yesterday and kept them both unchanged at record low levels. That means they actually haven't changed in a year now. In Malaysia, their exports surged on manufactured orders. They rose almost +37% to a record high, accelerating sharply from March's upwardly revised +8.4% increase and far exceeding forecasts of +9% for April. This was their best export growth result since August 2022. In Indonesia, their central bank delivered something of a surprise, hiking their policy rate +50 bps when a +25 bps rise was expected. That takes it to 5.25% and back to August 2025 levels. Driving the change was a need to strengthen the rupiah, curb imported inflation risks, and keep domestic inflation within the government's mid-point target of 2.5% (±1%). In Australia, a new labour market data series from employer tax filings shows there were 15.5 mln employee jobs in March, up +1.0% from a year ago, or +147,000 more. They were paid +6.0% more than a year ago. Obviously some of this is for the growth in the paid workforce, and that extra pay is before accounting for inflation. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.57%, down -10 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today up +US$33 at US$4533/oz. Silver is up +US$1.50 at just over US$76/oz. American oil prices have fallen -US$6 to just on US$97.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just over US$104.50/bbl, down -US$5.50. The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62.2 which is up +30 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,559 and up +1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the bond market is dominating the news today with sharply rising long term yields as investors see no end in sight top the war inflation upon us now. The benchmark US Treasury 10 year yield is now up to its highest since the brief October 2025 spike, and before that, it highest since 2023. In those earlier peaks, there was nothing like the fundamental inflationary pressure building now. And the US Treasury 30 bond yield is now at its highest since 2007. And if it lasts, yield asset valuations are at risk, especially real estate. There is already severe valuation pressure in the commercial office market from low demand. A higher cost of money could do widespread damage to these market valuations, globally. But first today, the overnight full Global Dairy Trade auction saw prices rise +0.6% in USD terms, rise +1.55% in NZD terms. This is a stable commodity in a sea of instability elsewhere. The outcome may have been helped by the low volumes on offer, down -15% from the same auction a year ago. In the US, private employers added an average of 42,250 jobs per week in the four weeks to May 2, up from 33,000 in the prior period, according to the ADP Research. Strong hiring in healthcare is a key feature. US pending home sales rose +1.4% in April from March to be +3.2% higher than year-ago levels. But the recent modest rises are not yet enough to make back the big falls in December and the small fall in January. The sharply rising 30 year bond rates will likely affect this market going forward. In Canada and as expected, their headline CPI inflation rose 2.8% in April from 2.4% in March and the highest in two years, But this is notably lower than the expected 3.1% rate and probably takes the pressure off their central bank to raise rates. In Japan, they said their GDP came in with a +2.1% (real) annual expansion are in Q1-2026, up from the +0.8% in Q4-2025. A rise was anticipated but only to +1.7%. In China, the always excellent Bill Bishop has used AI (Claude) to compare what the Chinese think was accomplished, with what the US think. It is here. There is some overlap. But there is clearly much confusion on what was actually agreed. Basically we should expect both sides to accuse the other of reneging - and in turn, the great rivalry will just fester on. In Malaysia, their inflation came in at 1.9% in April , at the low end of their expected level and only a modest rise from March. It was their most however since July 2024. In Europe, they posted a smaller trade surplus than expected as exports underwhelmed in March and imports rose. It was a much lower surplus that they recorded a year earlier. In Australia, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment survey is picking up a range of recent trends. Sentiment improved marginally despite the fuel shock, but within that more people are downbeat on their economy. The Canberra Budget didn't have a big impact though. Job loss fears are still elevated even if slightly less so. But homebuyer sentiment is down sharply to deeply pessimistic levels. And consumer house price expectations have softened even if they are still positive. A key thing to watch across the ditch is the widening sentiment gap between young and old. The ‘baby boomer' and ‘Generation X' cohorts are extremely weak (angry). Sentiment amongst ‘Millennials' is only modestly pessimistic. But ‘Generation Z' is outright positive they note. Rich people whingeing over losing their tax advantages in the latest Australian Federal Budget is becoming a feature of public discourse there, especially in the real estate sector. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.67%, up +8 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today down -US$47 at US$4500/oz. Silver is down -US$2 at just over US$74.50/oz. American oil prices have fallen -US$3.50 to just on US$103.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just over US$110/bbl, down only -50 USc. The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are also up +10 bps at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.9 which is down -30 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$76,771 and up just +0.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news there has been no improvement in the backdrop to the global economy. To open the new week, oil prices have risen after Trump warned that Tehran is running out of time to reach a deal he likes, while Iranian media reports indicated the two sides remain far apart in negotiations. Shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, keeping supplies tight. In the US, the NY Fed's regional Business Leaders Survey shows that the service sector there is continuing to contract, but now at a lesser pace. Activity has been contracting there since late 2024. Inflationary pressures remained persistent, with firms reporting steep increases in input costs and still-elevated selling prices. Staying tin the US, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which measures builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes, rose in May from April (which was its lowest level since September 2025). They too complain about sharply elevated input costs. And we should probably note that Elon Musk has lost his case against Sam Altman and OpenAI to claim the company. The jury quickly decided Must had no case. In China, new home prices across the 70 cities they reference shrank -3.5% in April from a year earlier, following a -3.4% decline in the previous month. This is the 34th consecutive month of contraction. It is also the sharpest contraction pace since May 2025. The weakness in their property sector goes on and on. The pace of decline in their existing home market is even faster. Four a fourth month, China's electricity production fell from the previous month. But it was +2.6% higher than the same month a year ago. This is a good reference point to assess their industrial production, which they said rose +4.1% in April from a year ago. But that was the slowest they have reported for an April since 2022. Fixed asset investment fell -1.8% in April on that same basis. At the same time, they said retail sales fell -0.5% in April after a -0.1% decline in March. Chinese banks now have an average net interest margin of 1.4%, according to the latest data as at March 2026. That is news because it is a record low. (For perspective, the New Zealand industry NIM is 2.3%.) Singapore said its non-oil exports rose a fast +24.5% in April from a year ago, up sharply from the +15.3% pace in March. This was the eighth consecutive month of growth and the fastest pace in fourteen years, with electronics the growth leader. In Australia, Cotality reported that 1,939 capital city homes went to auction last week, an -11% drop from the previous week, but still tracking higher than a year ago (+8.7%) when 1,784 home auctions were held. The preliminary clearance rate rose 1.1 percentage points to 57.5%, still a soft result but with highly mixed outcomes across different cities. This was the fifth time in the past seven weeks that the early clearance rate had held below the 60% mark and the third lowest result for the year-to-date. The Aussie Budget signals may have contributed to the mood.  The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.59%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$8 at US$4547/oz. Silver is up +US$1 at just over US$76.50/oz. American oil prices have risen +US$1.50 to just over US$107/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just over US$110.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are also up +30 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.2 which is up +30 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$76,661 and down -1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.6%. It turns out Trump's investment partners are enabling Iran to access the global financial system and evade US sanctions. Iran's Nobitex has processed at least US$2.3 billion through Tron and BNB Chain, blockchain ledgers started by backers of the Trump family's World Liberty Financial. Of course there will be no Justice Department investigation. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news financial market sentiment deteriorated sharply at the end of trading last week as war-driven inflation is being priced in more aggressively, because it will persist longer than earlier assumptions. Markets are shifting to a much more sceptical position on Trump policies & actions given the extended track record of failures. Higher long rates tend to feed on themselves when stress (like the Iran War) is elevated. And the US Fed is in no position to cut rates; in fact markets are guessing the chances of a hike are rising. These two pressures are pushing rates up. But first in the week ahead, locally we will be following updated population data this week, producer prices, credit card data, household and business expectations survey results, and retail sales, all for March. In Australia, the key data coming is for their April labour market, along with a key consumer sentiment survey and a key inflation expectations survey. Globally, apart from watching what is or isn't going on in the Persian Gulf, we will be tracking how bond markets are reacting to the Trump turmoil, US regional surveys and PMIs, and the UofM sentiment survey update. From China, there will be a raft of key data updates this coming week. There will be key industrial data out in Japan. And there will be PMI data out for India too. Indonesia's central bank will announce its latest monetary policy decision late Wednesday night. Over the weekend, analysts have been able to assess the results from the China-US summit. Those haven't been very positive. And it says a lot that Russian president Putin is in Beijing this week. Essentially the takeaways from the Beijing summit meetings between Xi and Trump have been underwhelming. It is notable that the Chinese have made no mention of the trade claims by the US, although there will be some. And they will be hoping Trump throws Taiwan under the bus after they stroked his ego. Meanwhile, the 'negotiations' between the US and Iran seem to have stalled completely. So no resolution to the Strait of Hormuz blockades. Oil prices are settling in, even rising, on fears of a much broader energy crisis. It has now been two months since Trump said the US would provide transit insurance for the Strait of Hormuz crossing. So far it has done no deals; zero. In the US, April industrial production jumped +0.7% from March to be +1.4% higher than year ago levels, and much more than expected. But it is all "business equipment" (read: AI data centers). This will be 'good' if it generates lasting increased productivity, but the rest of their factory sector is going backwards, even with 'tariff protections'. Consumer goods manufacturing shrank in April (-0.2%) from a year ago, construction stalled in April. In the New York region, there is a scramble to stockpile ahead for fast-rising cost increases. Business activity grew strongly there in May. US stockpiling may end up giving their Q2-2025 economic activity data an unexpected boost for the quarter. In Canada, housing starts jumped an impressive +17% in April from March to an annualised 279,300 units in April from the previous month, well above market forecasts of 240,000 units. But it is just back to year-ago levels (281,800). In Japan, machine tool orders surged +45% in April from a year ago, far exceeding market expectations. It maintains the much higher level it reached in March which was an all-time record, and by quite a margin. Both domestic and foreign orders leapt the at the same pace. Japan's producer prices rose +4.9% in April from a year ago, a surge from an upwardly revised +2.9% increase in March. That is an all-time high in a record that stretches back to 1960. Markets had expected a +3% rise. The usual suspects were the cause. Indian exports rose sharply in April, and were near their record high levels in March 2022. They had very good increases in both goods and service exports. Imports rose fast too, probably related to the rising cost of oil. Overall, their trade deficit shrank slightly in the month. The Russian economy is contracting, again. It is giving all the signs it is exhausted by its war on Ukraine, and this is despite its higher oil revenues. Manpower is a serious and probably unsolvable issue now that they have suffered excessive battlefield deaths. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.60%, unchanged from this time Saturday. For the week this is a +24 bps jump, one of the largest one-day jumps for quite some time. The price of gold will start today down -US$15 at US$4539/oz and down -US$184 for the week. Silver is down -US$1.50 at just over US$75.50/oz, down -US$5 for the week. American oil prices have stayed up at just over US$105.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -50 USc at just over US$109/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$99.50/bbl and US$101/bbl respectively. The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from Saturday at this time at 58.4 USc, down -120 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 81.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just under 50.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under  61.9 which is unchanged from yesterday, down -90 bps for the week to its lowest since early April.. The bitcoin price starts today at US$78,024 and down -1.5% from this time Saturday, down -4.2% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.6%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Bonjour, nous sommes Thomas, Pierre et Arnaud.Avec Axel Lattuada, à qui on doit la fameuse chaîne YouTube "Et tout le monde s'en fout…", prépare son prochain spectacle avec rigueur. Avec lui, parce qu'il a été creusé à fond le sujet des traumas, on s'est demandé la place du trauma dans le couple. On s'est dit qu'on va partager avec toi des tas de choses, mais ça ne remplace pas forcément une thérapie efficace (oui, oui, les 78% de mecs, on vous voit…Si tu es à Nantes, tu peux déjà aller le voir sur le site de la Compagnie du Café Théâtre.Axel nous raconte comment on fait pour aller chercher les partenaires qui nous appuient là où ça fait mal« Au Cœur des Hommes », ce sont 3 amis (Thomas, Pierre et Arnaud) qui avons décidé de poser à des copains des questions concernant les rapports amoureux.À chaque épisode, nous recevons un nouvel invité et nous abordons un nouveau thème avec bienveillance.Avertissement : Il se peut qu'on dise des choses qui ne plairont pas à tout le monde… mais on va les dire quand-même.Un jeudi sur deux, écoutez nous sur Apple Podcasts - Spotify - Deezer - Podcast addict - Amazon - Google podcasts - YouTube (sur le compte de Compagnie Club) - AcastTous les liens sont ici : https://linktr.ee/aucoeurdeshommespodcastMerci de nous écouter, abonnez-vous, commentez-nous et partagez-nous !Vous pouvez nous rejoindre sur instagram : @aucoeurdeshommespodcastou par mail : aucoeurdeshommespodcast@gmail.comLe compte instagram d'Axel Lattuada est disponible en cliquant ici et tu peux aussi suivre Et tout le monde s'en fout. Tu peux aussi retrouver ses prochains spectacles sur Billet Réduc.« Au Cœur des Hommes » est un podcast de Compagnie Club. Cet épisode a été enregistré dans les studios de rstlss.com. Merci à cette super radio rock pour son accueil depuis le début de cette belle aventure.♡Question subsidiaire : Et toi, il te reste combien de points dans ton Permis Elémentaire de Relations Amoureuses ?Livres évoqués dans cet épisode :"Changer le monde, ça tient qu'à nous... ET TOUT LE MONDE S'EN FOUT“ de Lexa, Fabrice de Boni, Marc de Boni et Axel Lattuada "Le Mythe de la normalité - Le traumatisme, la maladie et la guérison dans une culture" de Gabor Maté - Éditions Tredaniel La Maisnie"Les cinq blessures qui empêchent d'être soi-même" de Lise Bourbeau"Les quatre accords toltèques" de Don Miguel RuizAxel a aussi parlé de ce concept :Théorie de l'attachement de Bowlby♡Voir Acast.com/privacy pour les informations sur la vie privée et l'opt-out.Au Coeur des Hommes est un podcast Compagnie Club. Enregistré à Rstlss studio.Hébergé par Acast. Visitez acast.com/privacy pour plus d'informations. Hébergé par Acast. Visitez acast.com/privacy pour plus d'informations.

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the US-China summit in Beijing is underway and so far, the results have been underwhelming. Xi warned Trump about US support for Taiwan, and a big jet order for Boeing wasn't quite what was expected, causing Boeing's share price to fall today (-3.6%). The travelling CEO's seem to be impressed with China's opportunities, rather than Trump getting China to invest in the US. But it is only day one, so more may come of this visit. In the US data out overnight shows there were 190,600 initial jobless claims last week, less than seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.7 mln people on these benefits, less than a year ago and about the same as two years ago. Given how this is tracking so different to the US household labour force survey, part of the jobless claims easing can be attributed to tougher qualification standards. US retail sales rose marginally in April from March to be +4.5% higher than year ago levels. Higher dollar sales at petrol stations were a key factor. The timing of one-off tax refunds probably played a part too. This is a gain that is higher than the 3.8% US CPI. Business inventories rose as well (the data is for March). Retail inventories did too. But both are up less than the sales gains, so the inventory to sales ratio is improving. In China, banks haven't been lending at the rate expected. New yuan loans by Chinese banks fell by a net -¥10 bln in April, and much less than the expected +¥300 bln, and less than the +¥285 bln in April 2025. This is quite an unexpectedly variation and turn down in momentum, and only the third time on record this has happened. One reason is that there is a shift to corporate bond financing, away from bank financing. In Australia, their competition regulator has prevailed in a case it brough against supermarket giant Coles claiming its discount claims were a sham. This judgement is sure to echo in New Zealand. The ACCC has a parallel case pending judgement against Woolworths. Meanwhile the peak Australian labour union, the ACTU, has amended its claim for a minimum wage rise to +6% before the Fair Work Commission, taking the claimed rate to AU$26.45/hour (NZ$32.25). Obviously, the change is in response to rising inflation. Global container freight rates were up +12% last week to be +14% higher than year-ago levels. Surcharging for fuel is the key reason for the rises although this is also the time the northern hemisphere "peak season surcharges (PSS) start to be applied. Bulk cargo rates shifted higher again last week as well, up +5.4% and are now at levels we had during the pandemic stresses The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.46%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today down -US$12 at US$4678/oz. Silver is down -US$3 at just under US$85/oz. American oil prices are holding up at just over US$101.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$106/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday at this time at 59.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 81.9 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just under 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62.5 which is down -10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$81,564 and up +2.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.1%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news commodity markets are signaling more intense stress with copper and sulphur jumping to new all-time highs and aluminium jumping to near its brief pandemic spike. Tightening supply from the Middle-East standoff is driving the cost of these fundamentals up. Today, Trump is in Beijing where heavily choreographed set pieces are play out ahead of the formal discussions. Trump got welcomed by a non-Politburo member, the first time China has done that. So far he is being treated just like any other visiting head of state, rather than the special senior welcomes by his predecessors. And China is organising one of its tankers to exit the Strait of Hormuz in defiance of the US blockade, right at the time these meetings take place. US mortgage applications were little-changed last week, but with this week's push higher in benchmark interest rates, they are likely to fall when reported next week. American producer prices were up +6.0% in April from a year ago, getting a +1.4% shove in April from March. Distorted input costs from Trumps Gulf War are embedding uncompetitive pricing in American-made goods. Only the pandemic surge has been greater (also on Trump's watch.) It isn't clear right now why American producer prices are rising faster than just about everywhere else, but history will eventually explain that. US crude oil stocks took another outsized tumble last week according to official EIA monitoring. Petrol stocks there fell sharply too. (These sharp drops are confirmed by industry data too.) The industry is raking in record profits on these lower volumes. Why the US, a net petroleum producer, is feeling the brunt of these price hikes is a classic study in oligopoly power. (And see this investigation.) Meanwhile, UST 30yr bond yields have risen above 5% on secondary markets. Apart from the pandemic spike, this is the first time they have done so since 2007, so a two decade high. The overnight US Treasury 30 year bond auction delivered a medium yield of 4.99% (top bid 5.05%), up from 4.82% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. And we should note that Kevin Warsh is now the Fed Chairman. But ex-boss Powell is still there. Given the Trump-induced inflation surge, he is unlikely to be able to deliver on Trump's demand for lower US interest rates. In Canada, their central bank says they see no evidence that AI is having a material impact on their jobs market - yet, anyway. For them, the benefits are outweighing the costs. EU industrial production rose in March from February, but that wasn't enough to counter the outlier faster rise a year ago, so it ended down -1.0% year-on-year. An outsized fall in Germany twisted these results. In its May monthly report, OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, joining other forecasters such as the IEA in cutting expectations due to the Iran war. In Australia, the wealthy are reeling after their latest Budget signaled a levelling of the tax playing field and the wind-down of concessions for wealth. To be fair, these are to be unwound over many years, but the big end of town is furious they are losing their perks. Certainly, those dependent on the property market can see an end to the gravy train. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.47%, unchanged from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$12 at US$4690/oz. Silver is up +US$3 at just over US$88/oz. American oil prices are holding up at just over US$101.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is at just over US$106/bbl, which is down -US$1.50. The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday at this time at 59.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -60 bps at 81.7 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just under 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62.6 which is down -10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$79,447 and down -1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.7%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news oil prices are still rising as the two sides dig in in the Persian Gulf with no obvious off-ramp for this toxic situation. And hot on the heels of what is being seen as this humiliation of the US in the Middle East, Trump is heading to Beijing where the Chinese are waiting to attempt to get the US separated from Taiwan. Their chances seem better because China seems much less reliant on the inward-looking US. But first, the overnight dairy Pulse auction brought little-change in prices from last week's full auction event. In the US, their April CPI inflation rose slightly more than expected, coming in 3.8% higher than year-ago levels and a three year high. Trump's war pushed fuel costs up (+17.9%). But it is pushing non-fuel costs up too with core inflation its highest in 7 months. Electricity prices are up +6.1%. (Remember, this data is from the Trump-friendly 'new management', so we should remain sceptical.) The weekly ADP Pulse monitoring reports that the private sector added +33,000 jobs in the last week of April, keeping up the page it has reported for the prior five weeks. An new monitoring shows it is not a good time to be young in the US. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was little-changed in April and near its 11-month low of 95.8. Analysts had expected a small improvement, but it was not to be with survey respondents concerned about rising inflation, and affordability stress on their customers. Overall US household debt was basically steady in Q1-2026 according to the latest update. But their Federal Government debt is increasing in cost and at a faster face. The overnight auction for their ten-year bonds came in at 4.41% median yield, up from 4.23% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. The May USDA WASDE report exposes the risks to American agriculture from creeping changes to their climate. They now concede that the US wheat crop will be sharply lower this coming season. Reductions from the EU, Argentina, and Australia are being forecast too. Corn production is likely to be lower too, although that is off this year's record harvests. All this pressure probably means there will be no US Fed rate cuts for the foreseeable future. If there are any movements, rises are the more likely. Across the Pacific, Japanese household spending turned worryingly lower in March as inflation started to bite and their households turned risk-averse. They are saving more. Household spending there fell -2.9% in March, much more than the -1.8% drop in February and below the expected -1.3% retreat. This is the fourth straight decrease and the largest. India's CPI inflation rate inched up to 3.5% in April from March's 3.4%, not the big rise (to 3.8%) that was anticipated by market watchers. In Germany, their ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment was expected to get more negative in May that in April, but in fact it got less negative, which was a market surprise. Economic expectations are brightening, they say. In Australia, they released a fairly ambitious Budget overnight, doing more needed reform than anticipated. But it is still a budget in deficit, even if less so. With some unusual bravery, they are tackling stubborn policy areas and will no doubt have to use some political capital to do so. Redistribution pain will bring howls from the usual suspects at the top end of the wealth spectrum. They have been aided by stronger than expected starting point from tax flows from commodities and corporate good health. Here is one less-partisan analysis. But accelerating cost pressures are squeezing margins and demand is cooling, with the latest NAB Monthly Business Survey signaling a tougher operating environment for Australian businesses. This April survey shows purchase cost growth lifted sharply to +4.5% in April, outpacing product price growth at +1.8%. Business conditions fell while confidence marginally but it is still deeply negative (in fact, its worst since the pandemic). Those surveyed reported that forward orders fell further in April to be down sharply since February and giving up all the gradual gains achieved over the past year. Only mining orders rose and to be fair these were outsized gains in that sector. (Later today, we expect to get the Westpac consumer sentiment survey results.) The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.47%, up another +6 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today down -US$44 at US$4678/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at just under US$85/oz. American oil prices are up another +US$3 at just over US$101.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is at just over US$107.50/bbl, also up +US$3. The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from yesterday at this time at 59.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just under 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62.7 which is down -20 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$80,465 and down -1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the Iranians seem to be sucking Trump into a place he can't extract himself from, far from his earlier claims of 'total victory'. First up today, US existing come sales came in at a modest level again in April, and undershot what analysts were expecting. High mortgage interest rates are probably the reason for the soft demand. Still, they did sell at an annualised rate of just on 4 mln dwellings which is enough to sustain the sector. Unsold inventory is rising however, now at 16 weeks sales, and has been rising for all of 2026 and is now at 1.35 mln units. There was another US Treasury bond auction earlier today, and it was notable that demand is flagging, down -5% from the prior event. This time this 3 year bond achieved a median yield of 3.92%, up from 3.85% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. Inflation's impact in the US has officials scrambling. US petrol taxes are said to be on the radar for cutbacks. And the high cost of beef is pushing the US to sharply cut tariffs and quotas on imported beef. Both are effective acknowledgements that tariffs are hurting Americans more than their trading partners. However, given current demand and supply situations, it seems neither move will likely result in lower prices for US consumers. In Canada, their central bank runs a 'market participants survey' quarterly, and in the latest of these professionals now see geopolitical tensions more of a threat to their economy that the trade tensions with the US. They also saw only a modest +1.6% economic expansion this year. China's inflation is rising, noticeably now. Today they said their April CPI came in up +1.2% from a year ago, with fuel costs up +4.6% on that year-ago basis. But in April from March, fuel costs rose +3.5% in just one month. Things are hotter for producer costs which were up +3.5% year-on-year, and up +2.1% month-on-month. These are big sifts because it has been negative since October 2022. China's vehicle sales came in a 2.525 mln in April, about average aver the past three years, but marginally lower than year-ago levels which was an outsized period. On the commodities front, copper shot up to a record high today, and aluminium, nickel and zinc are also rising at the same time. Sulphur, a key ingredient for all mining and processing activity has shot up to a record high again, and approaching three times its cost of a year ago, up double from the start of Trump's Gulf War. Urea, which also spiked to mid April, has come back quite a bit since then. Trump is on his way to Beijing for a summit with Xi, but he is going is quite a weakened state - but he probably doesn't realise it. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.41%, up +5 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$8 at US$4722/oz. Silver is up +US$5 at just under US$85.50/oz. American oil prices are up +US$3 at just under US$98.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is holding at just over US$104.50/bbl, up +US$3.50. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday, at this time at 59.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 82.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.9 which is little-changed from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$81,983 and up +0.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.4%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that the Strait of Hormuz is still essentially shut with Trump's war on Iran far from resolved. The claims of 'ceasefires' merely propaganda exercises. Rolling skirmishes mean no shipping can get insurance, despite offers of safe passage. No-one respects anyone in a region where trust has evaporated. Locally this week, the big data insights will come from the RBNZ's survey of inflation expectations on Wednesday, migration and travel activity data on Thursday, and a first look at inflation on Friday via Stats NZ's selected price tracking. We will also get the factory PMI on Friday. In Australia, the key events will be the Federal Budget on Tuesday preceded by the Commbank profit result. There will also be consumer and business sentiment surveys out this week. In the US, it will be all about their April CPI and PPI, along with updates for retail sales and industrial production In India, they will also release CPI data. From Japan look out for household spending and PPI data too, and machine tool order updates. In China, we are expecting April updates for CPI, PPI and new yuan loan data. Over the weekend, China released its April export data and it was strong. While the US is turning inward, China is seizing the opportunities of their mistake. China's exports rose +14% in April to a record high, picking up from March's +2.5% growth despite the disruptions from the Trump Gulf War. And China's imports surged +25% on the same year-on-year basis, a second straight monthly record and confirming resilient domestic demand. It is all very impressive. China's exports to us were up only +3.8% from a year ago, but their imports from us were up +14.5. China's exports to Australia were up +36% and their imports were up +20%, but that still left Australia with a very large surplus with China. China's exports to the US were down -10.4%, and their imports down a similar -10.2%. They seem to have reduced their reliance on goods from the US to now just 9.8% of their total imports. No wonder US exports are faltering. Over the weekend, the official data from the US showed they added +115,000 payroll jobs in April at the headline level, above expectations of a +62,000 gain and following a +185,000 increase in March. It was the first back-to-back monthly gain in nearly a year, and on an 'actual' payroll basis it was stronger again. Their jobless rate was stable at 4.3%. But we should remember that all this data comes from an agency where Trump fired its head because he didn't like the results and this latest data is under the 'new management'. An independent professional review has confirmed there are distortions growing from this agency. Employment rose in health care, logistics, and in the retail trade while it fell in the manufacturing and government sectors. But if you include those not in payroll employment (self-employed etc.) there was no change on an 'actual' basis, a fall of -226,000 on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Their underclass is really struggling. And you can see that in the latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for May which fell again and to a record low. The fall from April wasn't large, coming in a scant 1.6 index points below April's reading but it was comparable to the pandemic trough reached in June 2022. Year-ahead inflation expectations are for 4.5%, a touch less than in April. In Canada, their employment fell -18,000 in April, but more people entered their job market, raising their jobless rate to 6.9%. In India, banks are lending freely, with loan growth up +16% from a year ago. For all its growth narrative, India's stock exchanges are reporting serious 2026 declines, unlike most other global markets. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.36%, unchanged from this time Saturday, down -2 bps for the week.  The price of gold will start today down -US$9 at US$4714/oz, up +US$114 for the week. Silver is little-changed at just under US$80.50/oz, up +US$4.50 for the week. American oil prices are little-changed at just under US$95.50/bbl, down -US$7 for the week, while the international Brent price is holding at just over US$101/bbl, down -US$7.50 for the week. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from Saturday, at this time at 59.7 USc, up +70 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at just on 50.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.9 which is up +10 bps from Saturday but up +40 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$81,392 and up +1.6% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low however at just under +/- 0.6%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news American households are struggling as inflation pressures consume their reserves. In the US there were 181,000 new initial jobless claims last week, about what seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.735 mln people on these benefits, lower than at this time last year, but still above two year-ago levels. And there were 83,000 reported job cuts in April, a bit above the average over the past year. For a second month in a row, AI is the key reason for shedding jobs now. Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations in the US rose in April and for a second month to 3.6% in April which is their highest since October 2023. Inflation uncertainty also increased at the one-year-ahead horizon. Income expectations are up less than 3%, so on average most people there expect inflation will set them back from where they are. US consumer debt jumped in March by much more than expected, driven by a +9.1% surge in credit card debt. The big end of town is noticing. Executives across retail, restaurants and packaged goods are increasingly worried about American shoppers with tighter budgets amid surging fuel prices caused by Trump's Gulf War. “They're literally running out of money at the end of the month,” one said. Across the Pacific, China's FX reserves jumped in April to just over US$3.4 tin after the unexpected March dip, and back up in its rising trend. This is their largest gain in 28 months. But it is still off its US$4 tln level in mid 2014. Gold holdings increased again by another +8 tonnes. The central bank of Malaysia reviewed its monetary policy late yesterday and kept its official rate unchanged at 2.75%. And Malaysian discount airline AirAsia said it has ordered 150 Airbus aircraft worth US$19 bln, and said it has an option to order another 150 from Airbus. Orders like this are being driven by the need for fuel efficiency. The central bank of Norway unexpectedly raised its policy rate by +25 bps to 4.25% at its overnight meeting, defying market expectations for no change. They said inflation remains too high at 3.6% and is likely to stay elevated and action is needed now to keep it closer to its 2% target. In the EU, the volume of retail sales fell in March from February to be up just 1.9% from year ago levels. The lower volume of fuel sales was the key reason driving the recent reversal. Non-food, non-fuel activity was actually up an impressive +3.0% for the year. In Germany they posted an impressive factory order intake for March, up +6.3% from the same month a year ago and resuming the upward trend they have had since August 2025. Australia said its exports fell -2.7% in March from February as rural exports plunged -11.6%. Also, non-monetary gold exports dropped -6.1%. That makes its March merchandise exports -2.2% lower than year-ago levels. Meanwhile, imports rose +14%. That means they recorded a -AU$1.8 bln trade deficit for the month, far larger than the expected +$4.2 bln surplus and the first monthly deficit since 2017. The import surge of "ADP equipment" totaling $4.8 bln in March (likely for data centers), is a key reason. Meanwhile, the Aussie government has imposed punitive tariffs of up to 82% on Chinese coil steel exports in a major effort to shield local manufacturers from low-cost competition from China that receive 'unfair' Chinese government subsidies. Global container freight rates rose +3% last week to be +10% higher than year-ago levels. Outbound China rates are rising again. Bulk cargo rates were up +11.5% over the past week to be +112% higher than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.40%, up +5 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$17 at US$4697/oz. Silver is up +US$2.50 at just over US$79.50/oz. American oil prices are up +50 USc at just on US$96/bbl, while the international Brent price is little-changed at US$101.50/bbl. Oil company Shell announced quarterly earnings overnight, more than doubling them to US$6.9 bln in the three months to March, from Q4-2025's US$3.2 bln. Clearly more than 'cost increases' are being passed on at the pump. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday at this time at 59.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at just on 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.8 which is unchanged from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$79,843 and down -1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.4%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news oil prices have tumbled as the US seems to give up on most of its stated objectives, including the promise of safe-passage for shipping, in a u-turn to extract itself from a losing hand. Crude oil prices are down more than -10% on the news, although it needs to be noted that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. It is just market euphoria. We now need to start worrying about a permanent Iranian transit tax after the US walks away. The Gulf States who supported the US are about to be thrown under the bus. Financial markets don't care of course and like the end of the adventure. US mortgage applications fell again last week as interest rates rise, both for refinance activity and new home purchases. This takes this activity back to September 2024 levels. The US ADP employment report said their private labour market added +109,000 jobs in April, marginally more than the +99,000 expected. This sets the official non-farm payrolls report up for an expected +60,000 rise, with upside. Most of the new jobs are coming from aggressive hiring in their healthcare sector. After the prior week's outsized fall, this week the EIA reports another notable fall in US crude oil stocks. In fact, every metric fell other than US crude oil imports. There is certainly no relief at US petrol pumps yet, with prices now up more than +50% from their pre-Trump Gulf War levels. We have earlier noted the politicalisation of US official data, especially of the Bureau of Labor Statistics who produce CPI, PPI and labour market data. We weren't the only ones. A new analytical report has been looking at how this has affected the quality of their data and concluded there is a worrying impact from this trend. So we need to be sceptical, and the next of their big set piece reports is the April non-farm payrolls. This means we will need to rely more on other non-Trump Administration high frequency market data. In Canada, their widely-watched Ivey PMI surged into a strong expansion in April and by more than expected. In China, new analysis shows Chinese companies are reporting lackluster earnings, with overall net profit declining in 2025 for the third consecutive year as the property slump dragged on and more retailers posted losses, hurting employment and the economy as a whole. Meanwhile, China's Golden Week holiday has just ended, and reports are that there was less air travel this year - but very much more high-speed rail travel. Overall domestic holiday activity was up +3.5% with air travel falling -5.7% year-on-year to 10.5 million passengers between May 1 and May 5, railway journeys up +4.6% to 1.06 billion. And staying in China, their non-official S&P Global services PMI reports that their services sector expanded faster as new business picked up in April and the year-ahead outlook improved. Cost pressures remained modest from this giant sector. In India, their services sector saw new orders and output expand at a quicker pace supporting hiring activity. They also reported a mild reduction in inflationary pressures. (Things aren't so good in the Russian services sector.) In the EU, they report rising cost pressure for producers, all related to higher fuel prices. Overall they are up +2.0% in April from a year ago, but up +3.2% from March. There is quite a wide range of impacts depending on the country. Internationally, a new report tallying global debt found it at US$353 tln, and a strong shift away from US treasuries and toward big new demand for Japanese and European government bonds. They also found the overall debt:GDP ratio remained stable. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.35%, down -7 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$121 at US$4680/oz. Silver is up +US$4 at just over US$77/oz. American oil prices are down -US$6.50 at just on US$95.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$8.50 and now at US$101.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is up +60 bps from yesterday at this time at 59.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at just on 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.8 which is up +50 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$81,399 and up +0.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.3%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that although the US claims the ceasefire with Iran is holding and "ships are lining up to transit", in fact, very little is moving in the area between Iran's red lines. And the most high profile transit in the past 24 hours was an Iranian tanker. Still, the US claims resonated on Wall Street, and stocks rose, benchmark rates fell. But first today, there was another full dairy auction earlier today, a small one where volumes offered and sold were the least in fifteen years, since mid 2011. But prices were up +1.5% in USD, up +1.6% in NZD. Butter prices continued to slide, but there were good gains for SMP, WMP and mozzarella. These gains end two consecutive full events where prices fell. US job openings fell, although to be fair, but less than expected. But even then, they are back at levels they had in April 2018, which is less than it seems because their labour force is so much larger now. There were two services PMI reports out for the US overnight (ISM and S&P Global) and both showed that new business intakes fell for first time in two years as war in the Middle East and inflation hit demand. But both were positive even if less so that in the prior two months The reason for the retreat cam be found in the latest April logistics managers report, where freight costs leapt, taking this index back to pandemic-stress levels. The US RCM/TIPP economic optimism index fell yet again, down to levels last seen in early 2024. It has retreated steadily since December 2024. It's sponsor's report called it 'steady' but that is gilding it somewhat. US exports and imports were little-changed in April, but both are in rising trends even if imports rose slightly more than exports (which rose largely on petroleum exports). Their trade deficit was widened. Canada also reported export data and that came in at a one year high, and unexpectedly good result, largely on the back of high exports of petroleum and gold. Imports fell back in April but from an unusually high March level. The result was a good trade surplus, their first since September 2025. Singapore reported March retail sales late yesterday and they were better than expected with a good +4.8% rise from a year ago. That represents a real gain because their CPI inflation was 1.8% in March. As widely anticipated, the RBA raised its cash rate target by +25 bps to 4.35% late yesterday. It was a split decision with one voting member wanting to hold the rate unchanged. But they face sharply higher inflation threats that seem to be growing and prior rate hikes have done little to quell those. However they have restrained their housing market enthusiasm and this latest hike is expected to put the brakes on that further. Traders still believe there is at least one more rate increase this year despite the RBA saying their policy was still only mildly restrictive. This comes after the March CPI rose +4.6%, and yesterday they reported that household spending remained high over the year in nominal terms, up +6.3% compared to March 2025 (and the highest since January 2023). Most of this is 'price' and much of it relates to a +32.8% increase in monthly fuel prices. But in volume terms, they say fuel purchases are lower, down -1.3% in March from February. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.42%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today up +US$37 at US$4559/oz. Silver is unchanged at just over US$73/oz. American oil prices are down -US$3 at just on US$102/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$3.50 and now at US$110/bbl. It is hard to see these prices easing further given the sharp fall in global oil reserves recently. Even the future process of building them back will add to demand and prices. The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3 which is up +20 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$81,300 and up +0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.3%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news conflict in the Persian Gulf has erupted again with attacks on US naval forces trying to open the waterway for US flagged vessels. Iran also hit the UAE. Iran also warned that it will tighten its control over the Strait. So far there have been 28 attacks and 6 near-misses. The oil price has risen, equities have fallen, and benchmark interest rates rose. How China reacts will be important now. So far they are bolstering their support of Tehran via trade and payments support, and banning their companies from respecting the US sanctions threats. In the US, factory orders rose in March and by more than expected as the stockpiling trend got started. They are now almost +3.7% higher on a nominal basis than a year ago. This data matches the recent factory PMI data we have reported earlier. US April vehicle sales came it at an annualised 15.9 mln rate, slightly less than for March and less than expected. This was down -7.2% from April 2025, but holding at about the post-pandemic average which in turn is about -10% lower than pre-pandemic levels. The US Fed loan officers survey may have disappointed some observers. Earlier in the year, indications were for rising demand. But the results of the April survey found little-change. At least it didn't find softer demand. In Canada, they have announced a $C1 bln support program for manufacturers hit by the swinging Trump tariffs on their steel products, a sector hit particularly hard. Another C$500 mln in regional support was announced at the same time. In South Korea, we got another very good factory PMI for April. The S&P Global version rose to 53.6 in April from 52.6 in March, the strongest expansion since February 2022. But the scramble for more orders, and production is to get ahead of incoming inflation pressure. In fact, input costs and output price inflation surged to its highest in the 22-year history of this monitoring. In Taiwan, the same scramble is underway, with production and sales rising sharply as firms look to stockpile. That drove their factory PMI to new momentum and a five year high. In Europe, the ECB also released a survey of bank forecasters. They found there were expectations for higher inflation in the near term, but unchanged further out. These analysts have downgraded their 2026 and 2027 growth expectations, but left longer forecasts unchanged. In Australia, the Melbourne Institute's Inflation Gauge tracking reported a +0.6% rise from March to be 4.3% higher than a year ago. The April result was lower than the record high monthly increase at +1.3% in March, and compares with the official March monthly annual rise of 4.6%. Despite the easing, this rate remains very high and likely well above what the RBA will be comfortable with. The RBA is widely expected to raise its policy rate +25 bps to 4.35% later today, although in the past 24 hours, the market conviction has wavered. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.44%, up +6 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today down -US$92 at US$4522/oz. Silver is down -US$2 at just under US$73/oz.. American oil prices are up +US$3 at just on US$105/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$5.50 and now at US$113.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are holding at 81.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.1 which is down -20 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$80,587 and up +2.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.6%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Bonjour, nous sommes Pierre, Thomas et ArnaudAvec Paul, qui était déjà venu participer à notre podcast pour nous parler des coups d'un soir, nous avons parlé de la confiance. Dans la digitalisation des beaucoup d'outils de communication, il semble que Paul ait révisé sa recette du bonheur. Depuis le dernier épisode que Paul, l'un de nos auditeurs, est venu enregistrer au studio RSTLSS (merci à eux pour leur accueil de fou), il a revu sa copie et nous en parle à cœur ouvert.« Au Cœur des Hommes », ce sont 3 amis (Thomas, Pierre et Arnaud) qui ont décidé de poser à des copains des questions concernant les rapports amoureux.À chaque épisode, nous recevons un nouvel invité et nous abordons un nouveau thème avec bienveillance.Avertissement : Il se peut qu'on dise des choses qui ne plairont pas à tout le monde… mais on va les dire quand-même.Un jeudi sur deux, écoutez nous sur Apple Podcasts - Spotify - Deezer - Podcast addict - Amazon - Google podcasts - YouTube (sur le compte de Compagnie Club) - AcastTous les liens sont ici : https://linktr.ee/aucoeurdeshommespodcastMerci de nous écouter, abonnez-vous, commentez-nous et partagez-nous !Vous pouvez nous rejoindre sur instagram : @aucoeurdeshommespodcastou par mail : aucoeurdeshommespodcast@gmail.com« Au Cœur des Hommes » est un podcast de Compagnie Club.Enregistré au studio RSTLSS Hébergé par Acast. Visitez acast.com/privacy pour plus d'informations.

In this episode, host Alyssa Watson, DVM, welcomes Jennifer L. Davis, DVM, PhD, DACVIM (LA), DACVCP, to discuss her recent Clinician's Brief article, “Pharmacokinetics 101 for Veterinarians.” Dr. Davis' practical explanations will give you the right understanding about what happens to drugs once they're given to patients—and what you should do about it. This is like your conceptual intro class about all the stuff you skip over in drug monographs: Cmax, AUC, volume of distribution, etc. Resource: https://www.cliniciansbrief.com/article/veterinary-pharmacokinetics-guide Contact: podcast@instinct.vet Where To Find Us: Website: CliniciansBrief.com/Podcasts YouTube: Youtube.com/@clinicians_brief Facebook: Facebook.com/CliniciansBrief LinkedIn: LinkedIn.com/showcase/CliniciansBrief/ Instagram: @Clinicians.Brief X: @CliniciansBrief The Team: Alyssa Watson, DVM - Host Alexis Ussery - Producer & Multimedia Specialist

Bonjour, nous sommes Thomas, Pierre et ArnaudAvec Boris, nous avons parlé du contrat. Nous abordons ce qui se pose dès le début dans l'équation du couple, les attentes implicites, les règles qu'on ne formule pas toujours, les projections, les compromis et la manière dont chacun arrive avec sa propre vision de la relation.On parle de ce qui se décide parfois sans se dire, de ce qu'on croit évident alors que ça ne l'est pas, de la place de la liberté, de l'engagement, des malentendus du départ… et de la façon dont ce “contrat” invisible peut autant structurer le couple que le fragiliser.« Au Cœur des Hommes », ce sont 3 amis (Thomas, Pierre et Arnaud) qui ont décidé de poser à des copains des questions concernant les rapports amoureux.À chaque épisode, nous recevons un nouvel invité et nous abordons un nouveau thème avec bienveillance.Avertissement : Il se peut qu'on dise des choses qui ne plairont pas à tout le monde… mais on va les dire quand-même.Un jeudi sur deux, écoutez nous sur Apple Podcasts - Spotify - Deezer - Podcast addict - Amazon - Google podcasts - YouTube (sur le compte de Compagnie Club) - AcastTous les liens sont ici : https://linktr.ee/aucoeurdeshommespodcastMerci de nous écouter, abonnez-vous, commentez-nous et partagez-nous !Vous pouvez nous rejoindre sur instagram : @aucoeurdeshommespodcastou par mail : aucoeurdeshommespodcast@gmail.com« Au Cœur des Hommes » est un podcast de Compagnie Club.Enregistré au studio RSTLSS Hébergé par Acast. Visitez acast.com/privacy pour plus d'informations.

Bonjour, nous sommes Thomas, Pierre et Arnaud.Avec Tyhem, on s'est demandé ce qui se passe quand on tombe amoureux d'un scénario plutôt que d'une personne en chair et en os. On parle de ces histoires d'amour construites sur les comédies romantiques, les boys bands et les chansons d'amour, de l'idée qu'« une personne nous est destinée » et des coups de foudre qu'on attend dans les aéroports…« Au Cœur des Hommes », ce sont 3 amis (Arnaud, Pierre et Pascal) qui ont décidé de poser à des copains des questions concernant les rapports amoureux.À chaque épisode, nous recevons un nouvel invité et nous abordons un nouveau thème avec bienveillance.Avertissement : Il se peut qu'on dise des choses qui ne plairont pas à tout le monde… mais on va les dire quand-même.Un jeudi sur deux, écoutez nous sur Apple Podcasts - Spotify - Deezer - Podcast addict - Amazon - Google podcasts - YouTube (sur le compte de Compagnie Club) - AcastTous les liens sont ici : https://linktr.ee/aucoeurdeshommespodcastMerci de nous écouter, abonnez-vous, commentez-nous et partagez-nous !Vous pouvez nous rejoindre sur instagram : @aucoeurdeshommespodcastou par mail : aucoeurdeshommespodcast@gmail.comLe compte instagram de Tyhem est disponible en cliquant ici. Tu peux aussi retrouver ses spectacles sur Billet Réduc.Pour voir le spectacle de Daniel Sloss "Jigsaw", tu peux le retrouver en France sur Netflix, ainsi que le spectacle "Have it all" de Taylor Tomlinson. « Au Cœur des Hommes » est un podcast de Compagnie Club. Cet épisode a été enregistré dans les studios de rstlss.com. Merci à cette super radio rock pour son accueil depuis le début de cette belle aventure.♡Question subsidiaire : tu te reconnais dans ce truc de te faire des films hyper vite (un eye contact, un message, et tu imagines déjà toute l'histoire) ? Est-ce que ça te nourrit… ou est-ce que ça te fout surtout la pression et te fait passer à côté de ce qui se passe vraiment sous tes yeux ?Ce podcast n'est PAS sponsorisé par une marque de puzzle de 1000 places.♡Voir Acast.com/privacy pour les informations sur la vie privée et l'opt-out.Au Coeur des Hommes est un podcast Compagnie Club. Enregistré à Rstlss studio.Hébergé par Acast. Visitez acast.com/privacy pour plus d'informations. Hébergé par Acast. Visitez acast.com/privacy pour plus d'informations.

Send us Fan MailDeep Learning Can Predict the Overall Survival of Cervical Cancer Based on Histopathological Image, Gene Mutation and Clinical Information. Shen J, Miao Z, Wang L, et al. IET Systems Biology 2026.Episode Summary: In this deep dive, we explore a groundbreaking 2026 study that uses multimodal deep learning to act as a "master diagnostician" for cervical cancer. We examine what happens when an AI is fed a combination of standard clinical data, cutting-edge genetic sequencing, and century-old H&E tissue slides. The results force us to rethink how cancer operates: what happens when the genetic "blueprint" of a tumor lies to us, and the real biological truth is hiding in the seemingly chaotic pink and purple pixels of the connective tissue?In This Episode, We Cover:The Murky Diagnostics of Oncology: Understanding why predicting an individual patient's overall survival (OS) in cervical cancer is profoundly difficult. Getting this prediction wrong means risking either lethal undertreatment (distant metastasis) or subjecting stable patients to devastating overtreatment toxicities.The Three Modalities (The Suspect, The DNA, and The Security Footage):Clinical Data: The "suspect's description," utilizing standard patient metrics like age and tumor stage.Molecular Data: The genetic "blueprint" and somatic gene mutations. The AI isolated major red flags like RGR, DBN1, and CALCR mutations, which drive metastasis and signal poor prognosis.Histopathological Images (H&E): The "security footage" showing the physical tissue battlefield via whole slide images.The Model Showdown: Researchers trained a deep learning model (ResNet18) and fused these modalities using Multimodal Compact Bilinear (MCB) fusion. The AI was tasked with classifying patients into short-term (under 3 years) or long-term (over 3 years) survival, and it was rigorously validated on a completely independent dataset (PUMCH) to ensure generalizability.Round 1 - The Genetic Curveball: Despite being the cell's source code, genetic mutation data was the absolute worst predictor of survival, achieving an AUC of just 0.559. Adding it to the AI actually caused the "curse of dimensionality," making the model worse by overwhelming it with mathematical noise.Round 2 - The AI's "Aha!" Moment: The tissue phenotype dictates what actually happens. Fusing simple clinical data (age) with H&E images achieved a highly accurate 0.783 AUC. Even more shockingly, for aggressive short-term survival cases, the AI didn't focus heavily on the tumor itself. It looked at the stroma (connective tissue), deducing on its own that the host's inflammatory battleground dictates the lethality of the disease.The Future of the Lab: How automated quality control (HistoQC) and mathematical techniques (Macenko color normalization) strip away lab technician error and chemical dye variations. We also look ahead to how hyperspectral imaging might soon reveal the foundational chemical signatures of living cells.Key Takeaway: Throwing more data at an algorithm isn't always better. By successfully extracting profound biological truths from routine, inexpensive H&E slides, the AI proved that we don't necessarily need $1,000 genomic sequencing panels to accurately predict prognosis. The physical manifestation of the tumor microenvironment tells us exactly who is winning the battle, paving the way for accessible precision medicineSupport the showGet the "Digital Pathology 101" FREE E-book and join us!

Deb (00:03.606)Within the next seven months, up to 1.5 million Americans could lose access to a medication that they’ve relied on for decades. Not because it’s dangerous, but because a pharmaceutical giant may have lobbied the FDA to eliminate their competition. And if you’re one of them, your doctor may already have told you about this issue and stopped prescribing it.This isn’t a conspiracy theory. This is documented in federal court filings. This is happening right now. And the company that stands to profit, well, they’re the same ones manufacturing the only product that might survive.Today on Let’s Talk Wellness Now, we’re exposing the desiccated thyroid extract crisis, the corporate manipulation behind it, and what you need to do right now to protect your health. Stay with me because I’m about to share what could save your access to the medication keeping you alive.Welcome back to Let’s Talk Wellness Now, the show where we uncover the root causes of chronic illness, expose regulatory capture in healthcare, and empower you with the tools to advocate for yourself. I’m Dr. Deb, naturopathic doctor, your medical detective, and today we’re diving into one of the most consequential and corrupt healthcare decisions affecting patients right now. If you or someone you love takes Armour thyroid, NP thyroid, or any desiccated thyroid extract,for hypothyroidism or if you’ve struggled to find a thyroid medication that actually works for your body, this episode is absolutely critical. And if you have celiac disease, gluten sensitivity or corn allergies, what I’m about to reveal will make your blood boil. Now grab your cup of coffee, don’t forget your notebook and settle in because what’s happening to this medication right now is a masterclass in how pharmaceutical companies use regular Deb (02:06.544)agencies to eliminate competition, control markets, and price gouge patients. And I have all the receipts. Deb (02:20.982)Let me start with what might surprise you. Desiccated thyroid extract, or DTE as we call it, is actually one of the most oldest thyroid medications in the world. And I mean old. From the 1890s through 1970, this was the standard treatment for hypothyroidism.Now let’s really dive into that. From the 1890s to the 1970s, this was standard hypothyroidism treatment.In 1965 alone, and this is documented in peer-reviewed literature published in the Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism, approximately four out of every five prescriptions for thyroid hormone in the United States were of natural desiccated thyroid preparations.The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism is a very high-end journal. Now think about that. This wasn’t some fringe therapy. This was mainstream medicine. Armour Thyroid, the most recognizable brand name, has been manufactured since the early 1900s, well over a century ago.and this is cited again in NIH bookshelf. When the FDA was officially established in 1938, Arbor thyroid was already on the market. And this is important and I want you to understand why. Under the federal Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act, any drug that was already being marketed before 1938 was automatically grandfathered into the system. That means it didn’t have to Deb (04:08.112)go through the formal FDA approval process. And this again is cited under the Federal Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act, grandfathered drugs and exemptions. And this is crucial to understanding what happens next. By the 1970s, synthetic levothyroxine, brand name Synthroid and generics became the preferred treatment. Hmm, wonder why?It was easier to standardize, came into consistent doses, and worked well for most patients, and could be mass manufactured. By the 1980s, levothyroxine had largely replaced desiccated thyroid in clinical practice, according to the American Thyroid Association 2014 guidelines for the treatment of hypothyroidism. But here’s what matters. Some patients…a very significant minority of them, never felt right on levothyroxine alone. Despite their lab work looking normal, they still had fatigue, brain fog, weight gain, cold intolerance, and depression.These patients often found relief when they switched back to their desiccated thyroid, which contains both T4 and T3 hormones, the way human thyroid naturally produces them. And this is not anecdotal. This is documented in randomized double-blind crossover studies published in Endocrine Practice.For decades, that was fine. Their doctors prescribed it, insurance sometimes covered it, patients were getting better, and the system worked really well. Until August 6th of 2025, just a short time ago, everything changed. On that date, the FDA sent letters to manufacturers, importers, and distributors of desiccated thyroid extract products stating that these medications would need an approval. Deb (06:04.654)a biologics licensed application, a BLA, to remain legally on the market. And this is cited in the FDA’s official statement, FDA’s actions to address unapproved thyroid medications. understand it says unapproved thyroid medications. However, desiccated thyroid, specifically Armour, has been approved since 1938. And this was dated August 6th through 7th, 2025.This wasn’t a guideline. This wasn’t a suggestion. It was an endorsement of action. And the timeline they gave them? Well, just 12 months to transition patients to another medication before enforcement action could begin.This was also cited by an FDA notice to the industry, animal derived thyroid products notice to industry, August 6th, 2025. Now do the math, that means August 2026, seven months from now, 1.5 million Americans currently taking this medication. And this number comes from the FDA official statement, citing that it’s an estimation of 1.5 million patients receiving prescriptions for these medications.could potentially lose their thyroid access. Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The FDA didn’t wake up in August of 2025 and decide to regulate desiccated thyroid after a century. This decision has a much longer backstory. And understanding that backstory is critical to understanding what’s really happening in this industry.The shift started in 2022. Back in September of 2022, over three years ago, an FDA branch chief sent a letter to the National Associations of Boards of Pharmacy noting that the agency had decided to designate DTE as a biological product, which would affect its eligibility for compounding. Deb (08:13.972)This also is cited in an FDA letter to the National Association of Boards of Pharmacy September 2022.Then two months later, in November of 2022, the FDA’s Office of Compounding Quality and Compliance sent a softer letter acknowledging that many Americans take medication to treat hypothyroidism and some choose to take DTE products. The letter stated that the FDA would focus enforcement on cases that pose the greatest public health risks, such as serious adverse offense or serious product quality or adulteration.also is cited by an FDA letter from Francis G. Bromel, the director, Office of Compounding Quality and Compliance, November of 2022. Now, let me just think about this for a second. If this drug has been on the market since the 1800s, been FDA approved since 1938, would we not have seen a health crisis long before 2022?I honestly don’t know of any other drug that’s been around this long that’s used by this many people. Now granted, I haven’t done the research on it either, which I can do for you guys, but I’m just thinking if a drug is on the market today and it causes harm, it doesn’t make it three years, five years before you see lawsuits everywhere. Why are there no lawsuits on this drug? Why are there no major reactions that people are seen having?Hmm, just thought. But here’s the pattern. The FDA was already laying the groundwork back in 2022, testing the waters, signaling where this was headed. The August 2025 action. Then this came down. Deb (10:09.806)August 6, 2025, the FDA announced its position publicly and sent formal letters to all DTE manufacturers, importers, and distributors. This was cited by the FDA Enforcement Action August 6, 2025, letters to manufacturers, importers, distributions of DTE products. The agency stated several concerns. First, DTE products have experienced quality and dosing issues.The FDA cited, and I’m quoting directly from their statement, over 500 adverse events reported associated with DTE products from 1968 to 2025. From 1968 to 2025, we had 500 adverse reactions? What is that math equate to?A couple a year? Come on guys, this is insane! With a substantial increase, you, between 2019 and 2020 that the agency suggested was related to voluntary recalls of sub-potent or super-potent products.This was cited in the FDA statement, over 500 adverse events reported associated with ADT products from 1968 through 2025.Second, the agency expressed concern about batch inconsistency. According to the FDA’s official statements, tablets made from the same manufacturing batches may not always provide the same thyroid hormone levels. Okay, this was cited in the FDA statement, tablets made from the same manufacturing batches may not always provide the same thyroid hormone levels. Thirdly, and I want to actually let’s back up. I want you to remember I said that Deb (12:11.216)because further down in this podcast, we’re going to talk about this. This is an important point to remember. Thirdly, the agency raised concerns about potential impurities from animal source material, including potential for viral contamination due to the animal source and supraphysiological levels of T3.the FDA statement on impurities, viral contamination and super physiological T3 levels. Now I will tell you, I’ve been prescribing armarithograde for 20 years. I’ve rarely seen a super physiological dose given of T3 in lab results, unless the patient takes their medication like four or five hours before you do the blood test, then you’ll see a false rise because you’re actually seeing the medication. You’re not seeing people walking aroundsuperphysiological T3 levels. Nobody would like that feeling. So anyway, I digress. Now let me pause here because this is where I need to give you some context that the FDA hasn’t quite emphasized yet. Of course, we have another connection and it is the China connection.So the FDA’s concerns about contaminated drugs and quality issues don’t exist in a vacuum. In 2024, the U.S. over 828,000 metric tons of pharmaceuticals, seven times the level from 2000. And here’s the kicker. China and India supply the majority of active pharmaceutical ingredients. APIs for U.S. generics accounting for 70 to 80 % of the total genericdrug supply. According to Reuters industry report in 2024, they state that China supplies 82 % of the APIs for critical drugs. Deb (14:08.204)Got to question that, right? Why are we giving all of our drug formulas to China and allowing them to import them into our country? In fact, roughly 20 % of the critical drugs have APIs exclusively sourced from China. And China controls 80 to 90 % of the global production for antibiotics and other key compounds. This was also cited by Reuters industry data thatcontrols 80 to 90 percent of the global production for antibiotics and other key compounds. Now just think about this. They control 80 to 90 percent of our medication. They control 20 percent of our critical drugs and we just put what kind of tariff on them? Hmm.In 2025 alone, the FDA issued multiple warning letters to foreign manufacturers for contamination issues and failure to follow good manufacturing practices. This is also cited by the FDA warning letters 2024 through 2025 and multiple citations to foreign manufacturing facilities. This is a systematic problem affecting the entire US drug supply, not just desiccated thyroid.So when the FDA suddenly became concerned about DTE quality and contamination, part of that concern was legitimate. But this is crucial. The same inconsistencies and contamination issues exist across the entire generic drug supply. And the FDA has not taken the same enforcement action against them. Let that sink in.They have not taken the same enforcement action against the other drug companies. So what’s behind all of this? Where is this all coming from? Hmm. Let’s address something directly, because you deserve to know it. And I’m going to cite my sources precisely so that when the medical boards have something to say about this, and they might, I have a documentation for every single word that I am about to speak. Deb (16:24.878)According to the court documents filed in October 2025, in the case ofa urine, a urine. I’m going to say that wrong. Pharmaceuticals versus Dr. George Tidmarsh from ABBV, the multinational pharmaceutical company that manufactures armor thyroid, reportedly petitioned the FDA in 2024, asking the agency to reclassify DTE as a biologic and to prohibit other manufacturers from selling unlicensed DTE products unless they havehad an investigational new drug application, we call this an IND, and a clinical development program aimed at eventual approval. This is cited in the court filing a Urena pharmaceuticals lawsuit versus Dr. George Tidmarsh, October 2025, reported by Fierce Pharma. Now let me explain why this matters and why this is one of the most brazen examples of regulatory capture I’ve ever seen in my career.AbbeVee is one of the world’s largest pharmaceutical companies. In 2024, they reported over $54 billion in revenue. Drop the mic on that one.They have the resources, the regulatory expertise, the legal teams, and the financial capacity to navigate a biologics license application process that costs between $500 million and $1 billion. Let that sink in. Deb (18:07.882)A drug that’s been on the market since the 1800s that was grandfathered in 1938 that’s making plenty of money right now. They’re going to spend 500 million to $1 billion to get a biologics license application. Why would they do that? Well, we’re about to find out. Most otherDTE manufacturers, smaller companies like Acela Pharmaceuticals, which makes NP-thyroid, and RLC Labs, which made WP-thyroid, do not have those same resources. And this is cited in Pharma Voice in 2025. Why a treatment older than the FDA is getting new regulatory scrutiny. So when you petition the FDA to reclassify a drug in a way that requires this type of expensivetime-consuming biological approval, you’re not just asking for safety. You’re asking to eliminate your competitors from the marketplace. Now, I want to be very precise here. These allegations are documented in federal court filings, and it hasn’t been approved in court. It’s also been reported by multiple industry sources, including Fierce Pharma. But I’m telling you,what has been reported in legal proceedings, not stating it as an absolute fact because you deserve to know the difference and because I have to protect my license. Now, what do we know for certain?AbbeVee is working on a biologics license application for Armour thyroid through clinical trials called Avantia. This is cited by the AbbeVee corporate statement 2025 Avantia clinical trial for Armour thyroid. A cell of pharmaceuticals has been pursuing BLA approval for NP thyroid for seven years since 2017 and it completed its phase two trials successfully in 2025. They’re now moving Deb (20:15.448)into Phase 3 trials. This is also cited by the Acela Pharmaceuticals CEO statement 2025 seven-year pursuit for BLA approval completed Phase 2 trials moving to Phase 3.RLC Labs, which manufactured WP thyroid, has made no public announcement about pursuing BLA approval and really probably don’t have a plan to do this since they’ve been off the market for some time now. About five years, I think maybe a little longer. Here’s the market manipulation.If only ABBV is successful and obtains a BLA approval for Armour thyroid, that company would effectively have a monopoly on the DDT market. And in pharmaceutical markets, monopolies historically lead to price increases.We’ve seen this pattern over and over again when turning pharmaceuticals acquired Daraprim and raised their price from $13.50 to $750 per tablet overnight. When Myelin raised EpiPen increased prices by 400 % when insulin manufacturers colluded to raise prices in lockstep. This is the playbook.use regulatory barriers to eliminate your competition and then exploit pricing power. For a drug that’s been on the market since the 1800s, guess corporate greed is everywhere. They’re not making enough money on this product already and they’re taking advantage of the rules that they can manipulate their competition by. And here’s what really makes me furious. The American Thyroid Association, the professional organization Deb (22:06.672)representing endocrinologists sent letters to the FDA commissioner on October 8th of 2025 and September 18th of 2025.advocating for continued patient access to DTEs. This is cited in the American Thyroid Association statement and letter to the FDA commissioner dated October 8th, 2025 and September 18th, 2025. The American Association of Clinical Endocrinologists issued a statement on September 9th of 2025 supporting equitable access and personalized medicine for DTE. This was also cited in the American AssociationAssociation of Clinical Endocrinologists, AACE, statement dated September 9th, 2025. Even the medical establishment, which has historically favored levothyroxine, is saying, wait, this is going too far. Patients need access to this medication. But the FDA is moving forward anyway. Why? Well, where does it always lead us? Follow the money trail.Okay, so I need to explain what a biologics license application actually is because this is where the rubber meets the road for what’s going to happen to pricing and availability. What is a BLA?A BLA is a biologics license application. It’s a formal request submitted to the FDA to market a biologic product in the United States. A biologic is defined under the Public Health Service Act section 351 as a product derived from or made using living material, in this case, animal thyroid glands. And this is cited in the FDA definition for biologic products. So they’re putting armor thyroid right Deb (23:57.377)right up with stem cells and exosomes. Think about that. Stem cells and exosomes cost thousands of dollars per application because of how they have to be harvested, stored, freezed, all of that. But we’re talking about a thyroid gland. Good Lord, people.Unlike regular drug applications for synthetic medications which follow a simpler pathway, the BLA process is designed for complex biological products like monoclonal antibodies, vaccines, and gene therapy products. It’s a much more expensive, much more time-consuming process. The BLA processis what manufacturers have to do. And we’re going to talk about that. So according to Reprocell and Forge Biologics analysis of the FDA’s BLA process, here’s what companies need to submit. First, they need to complete a clinical trial data, phase one, two, and three trials, proving safety and efficacy for desiccated thyroid. Haven’t we done that since it’s been on the market since the 1800s? Just saying.This means they have to conduct large randomized controlled trials comparing it to levothyroxine, measuring safety outcomes, efficacy outcomes, and quality of life metrics. Second,Chemistry, Manufacturing and Controls, CMC’s data. Detailed information about how the product is manufactured, quality control measures, stability testing and specifications that must be met for every batch. Third, preclinical and animal safety data. Fourth, labeling and product information. Now, I think we have labeling and product information. Deb (25:53.717)since the 1800s? But just saying. Fifth, they need Pharma Covigilance Plan, a detailed plan for monitoring safety after the product is on the market. Haven’t they had to do that since the 1800s? And they have to have a timeline. And this is the critical part. The FDA’s standard review time for a BLA is 10 months.That’s after the application is deemed complete and accepted for filing. So this is cited by the FDA standard review timeline, BLA submission, and FDA review.Now, before you even get to filing, you need to conduct the clinical trials and compile all the data that’s typically several years of work. How are you going to prove safety and effectiveness in a large clinical trial long term? What do they consider? What do they deem long term? Three months, six months, a year, two years. These companies had 10 months.Well, maybe 12. They did it a year in advance. But unless you knew this was coming, how are you going to put together a trial, enroll the people, have all the trial components set up and ready to go in less than 12 months unless you knew it was coming beforehand? Even ifhad started all their clinical trials in 2024, completing them, compiling the data, and getting a complete application ready for submission, this would likely take you through mid-2026, then add another 10 months for FDA review. We’re looking at 2027 at the earliest for most of these companies to receive a BLA application. Deb (27:54.319)But the FDA gave the manufacturers until August of 2026. That’s approximately 19 months from when the August 2025 letters were sent. Most companies cannot reasonably complete the BLA approval in that timeframe. And when I’m talking about the 19 months, I’m talking about the information they would have had earlier. Now the cost.This gets me even more frustrated. Why are we spending this kind of money? The BLL process is extraordinarily expensive. The current FDA user fee for a BLA submission is approximately $483,560 just for the filing fee. And this is cited at the FDA user fees prescription drug user fee rates for 2025.The full cost of conducting clinical trials, CMC studies, and all the supporting documentation typically ranges from $500 million to over $1 billion, depending on the scope of the trials and the complexity. And this is cited in JAMA’s network, Open2023. A cell of pharmaceuticals has been pursuing the BLA approval since 2017. That’s eight years. And it’s just now.moving into phase three trials with a planned enrollment of approximately 300 patients. This is cited by the Acela Pharmacies CEO statement of 2025. Now that’s unusual. That’s typical for this process. This is not unusual. This is typical for this process to take seven, 10 years to get approval for this. So if Abby’s the one that requested this,Abby V. And Acela started this in 2017. Was Abby V threatened by Acela that Acela might get this approval and it would be quietly done without anybody seeing it? And maybe Abby V would be left out of the market after a century? Who knows? It’s possible. Deb (30:13.112)But for smaller manufacturers without billions in revenue, this cost is completely prohibitive. And this is why this matters. When you push an old established medication through an extraordinary, expensive approval process with a compromised timeline, one of three things happen. First, only the largest companies can afford it, creating a monopoly. And when that happens, the company that holds the only approved product can set pricing withminimal competitive pressures. Two, smaller manufacturers can’t afford it and their products disappear and the market shrinks and access decreases. Three, we see a combination of both and who pays the price? Literally, patients do. Now here’s whereThere’s something I want you to really think about because this is where the regulatory argument falls apart when you look at it carefully. The FDA’s concern about DTE is that, and I’m quoting their official statement, tablets from the same manufacturing batches may not always provide the same thyroid hormone levels. This is from their FDA statement.And that’s a legitimate quality concern, right? It is. Thyroid medications have a narrow therapeutic window like any other hormone, meaning the difference between an effective dose and the dose that causes problems can be quite small. But here’s what the FDA doesn’t emphasize. Generic drugs have the exact same dosing inconsistency issue, and it’s considered acceptable and has been since we allowed generics on the market.So how does a generic drug dose work anyway? Well, for generic drugs to be approved as bioequivalent to a brand name medication, the FDA requires that the generic drugs bioavailability fall within 80 to 125 % of the brand name product. Isn’t that a dose inconsistency? Deb (32:22.894)from the brand name medication? 800 or sorry, 80 to 125%. According to the pharmacy times analysis of the FDA’s bioequivalent standards, the 80 to 125 % bioequivalence rule means that a generic drug can have 20 to 45 % variability compared to the original brand product.Now, most generics are much closer than that. The FDA study data shows that the mean difference for an AUC value between generic and reference products is about three and a half percent in the two year post-Waxman hatch period, and 80 % of the generics fall within a five percent range. But the FDA’s regulations allow for that much higher variability. And this is cited in an FDA study data mean difference for AUC.Now, let me put this in plain language. A patient could take a generic levothyroxine tablet where one batch provides, say, 75 micrograms of an active thyroid hormone. And the next batch from a different manufacturer, a different generic manufacturer, could provide up to 93.75 micrograms, 125 % of that 75. That’s an 18 microgram difference.in the same prescribed dose. Now, this is considered acceptable and patients tolerate it and this system works.Yet the FDA’s argument against DTE is that batch-to-batch inconsistency is unacceptable and requires this expensive biologic approval? That’s a double standard. So why is batch inconsistency acceptable for generic levothyroxine, but supposedly unacceptable for desiccated thyroid? I’ll give you the regulatory answer. Deb (34:29.366)because DDT is a biological product derived from an animal tissue and the FDA considers biological products to require more rigorous control. That’s the regulatory answer, but I’ll give you the real answer.because there’s no billion dollar pharmaceutical company with a patent pending on generic levothyroxine who petitioned the FDA to regulate their competitors more strictly. The inconsistency argument is legitimate, but it’s selectively applied. And that matters when you’re trying to understand whether this is really about patient safety or whether it’s about market control.Now I want to talk about something that hasn’t gotten nearly enough attention in this discussion and it’s something that makes me absolutely furious. What is Armour Thyroid? According to the official prescribing information published by AbbeV and available through rxabbev.com and the FDA’s daily med database, Armour Thyroid contains the following inactive ingredients. Calcium steroid,dextrose derived from corn, mycocrystalline cellulose,sodium starch glycolate and a opadri white coating. Now let’s talk about dextrose. Dextrose is a sugar derived from corn and while manufacturers claim that the corn derived dextrose in armor thyroid is gluten free, here’s the problem. Cross contamination during corn processing can introduce gluten proteins especially if the corn is processed in facilities that also handle Deb (36:18.808)wheat, barley, or rye. Corn sensitivity is extremely common in patients with celiac disease and non-celiac gluten sensitivity, and studies show that up to 50 % of the celiac patients react to corn proteins due to molecular mimicry, and the corn proteins look similar enough to gluten that the immune system attacks them. And this is cited by RestartMD.com.And here’s what’s documented in peer-reviewed medical literature in a 2023 case report published in Case Reports in Endocrinology. These researchers documented five patients with gluten intolerance or celiac who were taking natural desiccated thyroid. Three of those patients also reported lactose intolerance. Now these patients had to switch from DTE to liquid levothyroxine formulations to avoid the inactiveSo here’s my question. If AbbeV becomes the only manufacturer with an approved DTE product and their formulations contain corn-derived dextrose that triggers reactions in celiac patients, what are those patients supposed to do? They can’t take armor because of the corn. They can’t take compounded DTE because the FDA is banning compounding of these biologics. They can’t take NPKsor WP thyroid because those companies may not survive the BLA process. So they’re left with a synthetic version of levothyroxine which may not work for them.Now the NP thyroid and WP thyroid difference. Now here’s what’s interesting according to drugs.com comparison of inactive ingredients and P thyroid and P thyroid has calcium steroid dextrose also derived from corn, mineral oil, multi-crystalline cellulose. Deb (38:19.31)cross carmelicin sodium and a opadri to white. So NP thyroid also has corn-derived dextrose. WP thyroid on the other hand was specifically formulated to be hypoallergenic according to ROC labs, but it’s no longer available and its ingredients were inulin from chicory root and medium chain triglycerides. No corn, no gluten, no common allergies. So todayWe do not have a glandular thyroid, a DTE, that is not potentially contaminated with gluten. Yet, patients with autoimmune thyroid disease are supposed to avoid gluten.Now, some of these people can handle a DTE and many cannot, so that argument could be a mute point. But at the end of the day, the one product that we had that was designated for patients with multiple chemical sensitivities, celiac disease and coron allergies, has been off the market for a long time already.We have a monopoly problem. So if ABBV becomes the only approved manufacturer, patients with these celiac diseases and corn allergies will either be forced to take a medicine that makes them sick and triggers their immune reaction or switch to a synthetic that doesn’t adequately treat their hypothyroidism or choose to go without treatment. This is not hypothetical. This is real patients with real medical needs who are about to lose accessto the only formulation that works for their body. And the FDA’s response is silence. Deb (40:07.69)Now I want to highlight something that hasn’t gotten nearly enough attention in this discussion. Compounding pharmacies. What is a compounding pharmacy? Compounded medications are custom made by licensed pharmacists to meet a patient’s specific needs. Maybe you need a different strength that was commercially available, but you have an allergy to a filler or a dye in the commercial product. Maybe you need a liquid formulation or instead of a tablet or you need a capsule. That’s when compoundingin. And the FDA’s, this is the FDA’s definition of compounding. And for decades, compounding pharmacies have been making desiccated thyroid extract for patients who needed customization. Some patients couldn’t take the commercial products because of the dyes and the fillers, and some needed strengths that were not available. And these compounding pharmacies filled the gap.But reclassification changes everything. When the FDA reclassified DTE as a biologic in 2022 and reinforced that decision in August of 2025, explicitly stated, and I’m quoting directly from the FDA’s official statement, these unapproved animal-derived thyroid medications are not eligible for compounding because these products are regulated as biologic products under the Public Health Service Act.How can that be? These products have been approved since 1938 and the Biologics Act didn’t go into effect or doesn’t go into effect until August of 2026.So how in 2022 were they able to say that the compounding pharmacies could not make these products? Anyway, what this means is after August 2026, compounding pharmacies will no longer be permitted to compound a desiccated thyroid extract, even for patients with specific medical needs. Now, compounding pharmacies can still compound T4 and T3 separately, synthetic versions of levothyroxine and liothyronine, according to Deb (42:12.728)healing dose compounding pharmacy. These pharmacists can create custom ratios of these two synthetic hormones to approximate what a patient was receiving from a DTE. But that’s not the same thing. Some patients respond better to the whole DTE preparation than to a compounded synthetic combination. And for patients with specific allergies to standard fillers like your celiac patients that I just talked about, losing the ability to get a compounded DTE alternative isreal hardship. This is going to be a ripple effect. For a subset of patients, maybe 5 to 10 percent of those on DTE compounding was their lifeline and it was their way to get a medication formulation that worked for their unique body. When compounding goes away, these patients lose that option as well and for some it will be a significant problem. Now let’s talk about what this likely means for your wallet.The current pricing right now, according to SingleCare and GoodRx, Armour Thyroid costs approximately $150 to $157 for a 90-day supply of 60-milligram tablets, about $1.67 per tablet. With discount cards, some patients can get it down to $101 to $152 for a 90-day supply.Generic levon thyroxine costs about $70 for a 90 day supply, less than half that price. And p-thyroid costs approximately $133 for a 90 day supply of 60 milligrams with a discount card about $83 to $101.What happens after we get BLA approval? Well, here’s the pharmaceuticals pricing model. When a company spends 500 million to $1 billion to bring a product to market, including conducting massive clinical trials, the cost tens of millions of dollars they recoup in that investment through pricing power. And this is cited in the pharmaceutical pricing models. If ABBIEV is the only company with an approved BLA of DTE, Deb (44:18.248)They have pricing power. They don’t have competitors. They can set their price, whatever they want. And historically, when drugs transition from grandfather status, which is basically unregulated to formal formally approved status, prices often increase significantly, not always, but often. And typically they have to get re-approval for insurance. SoTouring Pharmaceuticals acquired DARPM and raised the price again from $1,350 to $750 overnight, a 5,000 % increase. This is the playbook.Let’s talk about insurance coverage. This is the other consideration. Insurance companies sometimes have different coverage policies for approved versions versus unapproved drugs. And right now, many insurance plans cover armor thyroid or NP thyroid, even though they’re technically unapproved because they’ve been on the market for decades and patients are on them. Once a drug becomes formally approved, insurance companies may have new contractual relationships, prior authorization requirements, or preferred drugs.list that could affect your coverage. If 1.5 million people have to get a prior auth for their insurance to cover this new medication, this is going to drive the doctor’s offices crazy. We do not have the staff to man this. We do not have the manpower. We do not have the time. This is going to interrupt people’s ability to get their medications. This is going to create chaos within the system. And some patients might see better coverage, but manymost likely are going to see worse coverage and some might find themselves in a situation where they need to try to get the drug approved first or get an approval for something else like levothyroxine and they’re going to have to document that it didn’t work and the documentation that they had from 20 years ago is probably not going to be enough because it’s not documented anywhere. It’s lost in the system after 10 years. So for patients the practical takeaway is expect Deb (46:25.774)a price increase. I would say possible, but I don’t think that’s true. think you’re going to see a price increase if they get approved. Expect possible insurance complexities, budget accordingly, talk to your insurance company now about what your coverage is going to look like in 2027 if they even know. And if you want my honest assessment of what is likely to happen,I’ll give you a scenario, 30 % likelihood. The FDA enforces the August 26 deadline and DTE products not approved by then are pulled from the market. Patients will have 30 to 90 days to transition to other medications. Some patients suffer significant symptom relapse. Compounding for DTE becomes illegal and this disruptiveness of the system creates a real hardship. Scenario two.which is 50 % likely. This is actually what the FDA commissioner, Marty McCreary suggested on August 13th of 2025 when he posted on social media. The FDA is committed to pursuing the first ever approval of desiccated thyroid access pending results of the ongoing clinical trials. In the meantime, we’ll ensure access for all Americans. Hopefully that continues. What this likely means is the FDA uses enforcement discretion to allow continuedsales while approvals are being pursued and the deadline gets extended. Maybe patients get access for another two to three years while companies work on a BLA approval. This would be the least disruptive scenario, but it’s also legally uncertain because the enforcement letters have been formally rescinded. And scenario three, which is 20 % likelihood, one or two companies get BLA approval. Those products stay on the market at higher product prices and companies, products, other companiescompanies, products are pulled, the market shrinks, availability is limited, prices are higher, but patients can still get something. This is likely if a seller successfully completes phase three trials for NP-thyroid. And my assessment is based on the regulatory language and the enforcement letters that have not been rescinded yet, that the pattern of FDA enforcement, I believe scenario two enforcement discretion with an extended time frame is most likely what we’re going to see. Deb (48:49.488)doesn’t mean patients should sit back and do nothing. It means you should be prepared for change while advocating for access. If you want to keep Arm or Thigh Right on the market, 1.5 million people need to start talking about this publicly and flooding our Congress people, Bobby Kennedy, the FDA, with what you want to see happen. We have the ability to shape this and to change this with our voice. But if we sit back on our laurels and we do absolutelynothing. What is going to happen is what the FDA wants to have happen and ABV wants to have happen because they’re going to simply think people don’t give a shit. And if the American people are going to be lazy and not want to step forward and actually start using their voice for some good and instead of just going to social media and bitching and hoping something is going to happen, well, then we’re going to get what we deserve. But if you start taking someaction and you start advocating for the things that you want. Contacting your representatives, contacting your U.S. tell them the FDA has done this. Many of them may not know this, may not be on their radar. Tell them what you want. Start going after this. Start writing to the FDA Commissioner’s Office. They have a website. They have a Commissioner’s Office at fda.hhs.gov. Be responsible.respectful, but be firm. Explain your scenario. How long you’ve been on DTE. Why levothyroxine doesn’t work. What symptoms you experience when not adequately treated. How this decision will affect your quality of life and your pocketbook. Let’s do something proactive. So let’s consider this. Moving forward, work with your provider who understands the regulatory landscape around DTE. You can discuss the evidence for and against combination therapy.You can monitor for thyroid function with free T3 and free T4 testing, not just TSH. If you’re willing to try individualized approaches, you can do that. If you need help finding a functional medicine provider who understands this issue, come to serenityhealthcarecenter.com or explorethevanari.com. It’s a self-directed functional medicine support group. And right now what is happening is going to shape how history Deb (51:19.024)is made with not just armor thyroid, but many drugs to come. And it is important for you to take action. So I want to thank you for joining me today on Let’s Talk Wellness Now. This episode is about far more than thyroid medication. It’s about your right to personalized medical treatment. It’s about your regulatory capture and corporate influence. And it’s about what happens when billion dollar companies shape healthcare policy in ways that reduce patient choice and increase their profits.this episode resonates with you or you know somebody who’s going to be affected by desiccated thyroid, please share it. Post it on social media, send it to your doctor, email it to your representatives, tag AbbeVee, tag FDA. Make noise because the only way we stop this is if we make it too politically costly for them to continue. Your voice truly matters. Your health truly matters and you deserve access to treatments that work best for your unique body.If you’re ready to explore comprehensive personalized health care that puts you in control, visit us at SerenityHealthCareCenter.com. Learn more about functional medicine approaches to thyroid and beyond and explore my new platform, Venari.com, which is a self-directed functional medicine tool. Thank you for joining me today. Until next time, I’m Dr. Deb reminding you, your health is your responsibility, your choice, and your right. Be well, stay informed, fight back.and I’ll see you in the next episode. And if you’re looking for a full citation list of this episode, you can head over to letstalkwellnessnow.com and I will post all the citations for you so you have them in your arsenal as well. Thank you again.The post Episode 259 – The Desiccated Thyroid Crisis: FDA's Unseen Impact & Corporate Manipulation first appeared on Let's Talk Wellness Now.

In this episode, we are going to take a closer look at Vancomycin, one of the most widely used antibiotics in the hospital setting and a medication that pharmacists frequently monitor. Vancomycin is a glycopeptide antibiotic primarily used to treat serious gram-positive infections, including those caused by Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). Its mechanism of action involves inhibiting bacterial cell wall synthesis by binding to the D-alanine–D-alanine portion of peptidoglycan precursors, which ultimately prevents the bacteria from forming a stable cell wall. Clinically, vancomycin is commonly used for infections such as bacteremia, endocarditis, osteomyelitis, and severe skin and soft tissue infections when resistant gram-positive organisms are suspected. One of the most important aspects of vancomycin therapy is therapeutic drug monitoring, as maintaining appropriate exposure is critical for both efficacy and safety. Current practice often focuses on achieving target AUC-to-MIC ratios rather than relying solely on trough levels. Pharmacists also play an important role in adjusting doses based on renal function and monitoring for adverse effects. Two key safety concerns with vancomycin are nephrotoxicity and vancomycin infusion-related reactions such as “red man syndrome,” which is characterized by flushing, rash, and hypotension if the medication is infused too rapidly. Throughout this episode, we will review the pharmacology, monitoring parameters, and clinical pearls that healthcare professionals should understand when managing patients receiving vancomycin therapy. Be sure to check out our free Top 200 study guide – a 31 page PDF that is yours for FREE! Support The Podcast and Check Out These Amazing Resources! NAPLEX Study Materials BCPS Study Materials BCACP Study Materials BCGP Study Materials BCMTMS Study Materials Meded101 Guide to Nursing Pharmacology (Amazon Highly Rated) Guide to Drug Food Interactions (Amazon Best Seller) Pharmacy Technician Study Guide by Meded101

Bonjour, nous sommes Thomas, Pierre et Arnaud.Avec Marc, on s'est demandé ce qui se passe quand on a en tête un « schéma idéal » de couple… et que la réalité ne suit pas. On parle de ces modèles familiaux qu'on voudrait reproduire (mariage, maison, enfants), de la pression de l'âge qui avance et de ce que ça fait quand on a l'impression d'être toujours celui qui reste sur le quai.« Au Cœur des Hommes », ce sont 3 amis (Arnaud, Pierre et Pascal) qui ont décidé de poser à des copains des questions concernant les rapports amoureux.À chaque épisode, nous recevons un nouvel invité et nous abordons un nouveau thème avec bienveillance.Avertissement : Il se peut qu'on dise des choses qui ne plairont pas à tout le monde… mais on va les dire quand-même.Un jeudi sur deux, écoutez nous sur Apple Podcasts - Spotify - Deezer - Podcast addict - Amazon - Google podcasts - YouTube (sur le compte de Compagnie Club) - AcastTous les liens sont ici : https://linktr.ee/aucoeurdeshommespodcastMerci de nous écouter, abonnez-vous, commentez-nous et partagez-nous !« Au Cœur des Hommes » est un podcast de Compagnie Club. Cet épisode a été enregistré dans les studios de rstlss.com. Merci à cette super radio rock pour son accueil depuis le début de cette belle aventure.♡Vous pouvez nous rejoindre sur Instagram : @aucoeurdeshommespodcastou par mail : aucoeurdeshommespodcast@gmail.com♡Question subsidiaire : tu te reconnais dans ce truc de vouloir que ta vie ressemble à un « schéma idéal » (couple, enfants, maison…) ? Est-ce que ça t'aide à avancer… ou est-ce que ça te met surtout une énorme pression ?—Voir Acast.com/privacy pour les informations sur la vie privée et l'opt-out.Au Coeur des Hommes est un podcast Compagnie Club. Enregistré à Rstlss studio.Hébergé par Acast. Visitez acast.com/privacy pour plus d'informations. Hébergé par Acast. Visitez acast.com/privacy pour plus d'informations.

Bonjour, nous sommes Thomas, Pierre et Arnaud.Avec Ilya, grimpeur urbain et passionné de sensations fortes, on s'est demandé jusqu'où on est prêt à aller pour impressionner la personne qu'on aime. On parle d'exploits étonnants, de points de vue uniques sur la ville, d'adrénaline, de vertige… mais aussi de validation, d'ego, de peur de regretter sa vie, et de la manière dont une passion très intense vient bousculer un couple. On évoque la famille inquiète, les proches qui ne comprennent pas toujours, la frontière entre courage et inconscience… et ce que ces expériences au bord du risque lui apprennent sur l'amour, le lien et la valeur du temps partagé.Toutes les pratiques évoquées sont potentiellement dangereuses : ne les reproduisez pas.« Au Coeur des Hommes », ce sont 3 "êtres humaaaaaains" (Thomas, Pierre et Arnaud) qui ont décidé de poser à des copains des questions concernant les rapports amoureux.À chaque épisode, nous recevons un nouvel invité et nous abordons un nouveau thème avec bienveillance.Avertissement : Il se peut qu'on dise des choses qui ne plairont pas à tout le monde… mais on va les dire quand-même.Un jeudi sur deux, écoutez nous sur Apple Podcasts - Spotify - Deezer - Podcast addict - Amazon - Google podcasts - YouTube (sur le compte de Compagnie Club) - AcastTous les liens sont ici : https://linktr.ee/aucoeurdeshommespodcastMerci de nous écouter, abonnez-vous, commentez-nous et partagez-nous !Vous pouvez nous rejoindre sur instagram : @aucoeurdeshommespodcastou par mail : aucoeurdeshommespodcast@gmail.com« Au Cœur des Hommes » est un podcast de Compagnie Club. Cet épisode a été enregistré dans les studios de rstlss.com. Merci à cette super radio rock pour son accueil depuis le début de cette belle aventure.♡Question subsidiaire : c'est quoi, pour toi, le geste le plus marquant que tu as fait pour impressionner quelqu'un… et aujourd'hui, tu le vois comme un bel élan, une folie douce, ou un truc un peu trop borderline ?♡Voir Acast.com/privacy pour les informations sur la vie privée et l'opt-out.Au Coeur des Hommes est un podcast Compagnie ClubHébergé par Acast. Visitez acast.com/privacy pour plus d'informations. Hébergé par Acast. Visitez acast.com/privacy pour plus d'informations.

I Can Imagine It for Us: A Palestinian Daughter's Memoir (American University in Cairo Press, 2025) is a young woman's search for connection with her estranged father, her family's past, and the Palestinian homeland she can never visit Mai Serhan lives in Cairo and has never been to Palestine, the country from which her family was expelled in 1948. She is twenty-four years old when one morning she receives a phone call from her estranged father. His health is failing and he might not have long to live, so he asks her to join him in China where he runs a business empire about which Mai knows nothing. Mai agrees to go in the hopes that they will become close, but this strange new country is as unknowable to her as her father. There, the ghosts of the Nakba come to haunt them both. With this grief comes violence, and a tragic death brings a whole new meaning to the word erasure. In a narrative made rich by its layers of fragmentation, as befitting the splintered and disordered existence of exile over generations, this courageous memoir spans Egypt, Lebanon, Dubai, China and, of course, Palestine. It is filled with bitter tragedy and loss and woven through with an understated humor and much grace. Mai Serhan is a Palestinian writer who grew up in Egypt. She is the author of CAIRO: the undelivered letters, winner of the 2022 Center for Book Arts Poetry Award, and I Have Never Been to the Place Where I am From, But I Will Imagine It For Us, a finalist for the 2022 Narratively Memoir Prize. She holds an MSt in creative writing from Oxford University, and has studied at NYU and AUC. She lives in Cairo. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

I Can Imagine It for Us: A Palestinian Daughter's Memoir (American University in Cairo Press, 2025) is a young woman's search for connection with her estranged father, her family's past, and the Palestinian homeland she can never visit Mai Serhan lives in Cairo and has never been to Palestine, the country from which her family was expelled in 1948. She is twenty-four years old when one morning she receives a phone call from her estranged father. His health is failing and he might not have long to live, so he asks her to join him in China where he runs a business empire about which Mai knows nothing. Mai agrees to go in the hopes that they will become close, but this strange new country is as unknowable to her as her father. There, the ghosts of the Nakba come to haunt them both. With this grief comes violence, and a tragic death brings a whole new meaning to the word erasure. In a narrative made rich by its layers of fragmentation, as befitting the splintered and disordered existence of exile over generations, this courageous memoir spans Egypt, Lebanon, Dubai, China and, of course, Palestine. It is filled with bitter tragedy and loss and woven through with an understated humor and much grace. Mai Serhan is a Palestinian writer who grew up in Egypt. She is the author of CAIRO: the undelivered letters, winner of the 2022 Center for Book Arts Poetry Award, and I Have Never Been to the Place Where I am From, But I Will Imagine It For Us, a finalist for the 2022 Narratively Memoir Prize. She holds an MSt in creative writing from Oxford University, and has studied at NYU and AUC. She lives in Cairo. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/middle-eastern-studies

I Can Imagine It for Us: A Palestinian Daughter's Memoir (American University in Cairo Press, 2025) is a young woman's search for connection with her estranged father, her family's past, and the Palestinian homeland she can never visit Mai Serhan lives in Cairo and has never been to Palestine, the country from which her family was expelled in 1948. She is twenty-four years old when one morning she receives a phone call from her estranged father. His health is failing and he might not have long to live, so he asks her to join him in China where he runs a business empire about which Mai knows nothing. Mai agrees to go in the hopes that they will become close, but this strange new country is as unknowable to her as her father. There, the ghosts of the Nakba come to haunt them both. With this grief comes violence, and a tragic death brings a whole new meaning to the word erasure. In a narrative made rich by its layers of fragmentation, as befitting the splintered and disordered existence of exile over generations, this courageous memoir spans Egypt, Lebanon, Dubai, China and, of course, Palestine. It is filled with bitter tragedy and loss and woven through with an understated humor and much grace. Mai Serhan is a Palestinian writer who grew up in Egypt. She is the author of CAIRO: the undelivered letters, winner of the 2022 Center for Book Arts Poetry Award, and I Have Never Been to the Place Where I am From, But I Will Imagine It For Us, a finalist for the 2022 Narratively Memoir Prize. She holds an MSt in creative writing from Oxford University, and has studied at NYU and AUC. She lives in Cairo. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/biography

Plongez dans l'histoire de Marguerite d'Angoulême, sœur du roi François Ier, racontée par l'historienne Virginie Girod dans un récit inédit en deux parties.Marguerite d'Angoulême est élevée avec son frère, le futur François Ier.À 17 ans, brillante, elle croule sous les demandes en mariage. Elle épouse Charles d'Alençon, mais cette union la rend malheureuse.En janvier 1515, François Ier, devient roi en succédant à Louis XII. Cet événement est crucial pour la jeune femme.La reine officielle, Claude de France, est effacée au sein de la cour. En parallèle, Marguerite d'Angoulême s'impose comme la partenaire du roi.Alors que François Ier se lance à la conquête de l'Europe, il est fait prisonnier en Espagne en 1525. Sa sœur prend part à la délégation envoyée pour négocier sa libération. Dans sa cellule, François Ier est en mauvaise santé. Mais alors que Marguerite est auprès de lui, une sorte de miracle se produit. Sa liberté négociée, François Ier retrouve sa cour en 1526.De son côté, Marguerite d'Angoulême épouse Henri d'Albret, roi de Navarre. Désormais connue sous le nom de Marguerite de Navarre, la sœur du roi développe peu à peu sa fibre littéraire. (rediffusion)Au Cœur de l'Histoire est un podcast Europe 1. - Ecriture et présentation : Virginie Girod - Production : Camille Bichler (avec Florine Silvant)- Direction artistique : Adèle Humbert et Julien Tharaud - Réalisation : Clément Ibrahim - Musique originale : Julien Tharaud - Musiques additionnelles : Julien Tharaud et Sébastien Guidis - Visuel : Sidonie ManginHébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Au Cœur de l'Histoire est un podcast Europe 1.- Ecriture et présentation : Olivier de Lagarde - Production : Clara Leger- Réalisation : Christophe Daviaud et Nicolas Beaudin- Musique originale : Julien Tharaud  - Visuel : Luowen Wang- Diffusion : Clara Ménard Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Au Cœur de l'Histoire est un podcast Europe 1.- Présentation et écriture : Virginie Girod- Production : Armelle Thiberge- Réalisation : Nicolas Gaspard- Composition du générique : Julien Tharaud- Visuel : Sidonie Mangin Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Au Cœur de l'Histoire est un podcast Europe 1.- Ecriture et présentation : Jean des Cars- Production : Timothée Magot- Réalisation : Jean-François Bussière Bibliographie : - Philippe Delorme, Les princes du malheur (Perrin, 2008)- Philippe Delorme, Le retour du dauphin perdu, dans Les énigmes de l'Histoire de France, sous la direction de Jean-Christian Petitfils (Perrin/Le Figaro Histoire, 2018) Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Au Cœur de l'Histoire est un podcast Europe 1. - Ecriture et présentation : Jean des Cars- Production : Timothée Magot- Réalisation : Jean-François Bussière Bibliographie : - Philippe Delorme, Les princes du malheur (Perrin, 2008)- Philippe Delorme, Le retour du dauphin perdu, dans Les énigmes de l'Histoire de France, sous la direction de Jean-Christian Petitfils (Perrin/Le Figaro Histoire, 2018) Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.