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Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that while financial markets are quiet due to the US Labor Day holiday, the data being reported in the rest of the world is actually very encouraging, especially for the factory sectors.In China, the private Caixin PMI has a new sponsor - RatingDog. It is still produced by S&P Global. That August factory PMI showed manufacturing output returned to growth in August. Total new business expanded at quickest pace since March. But it also reported the fastest rise in average input prices in nine months. As has become the norm in 2025, this private PMI series is more bullish than the official PMI.While we are noting improved factory PMIs in Australia and China, we should also note that they improved in Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia as well. The Trump tariff-taxes aren't killing these countries. In fact, because it is the American importers who are paying these taxes (and ultimately the American consumer), the whole tariff journey just shows the American's are prepared to pay a lot more for what they import, and demand isn't flagging. Yet, anyway.Of special note is the regaining of momentum in India where their factory PMI turned notably higher on new orders and new-found momentum. This is now their fastest improvement in operating conditions in seventeen and a half years, with production growth accelerating to a nearly five-year high, supported by strong demand and better alignment of supply with orders. New orders rose at the fastest pace in nearly five years, and given they have been strong in the lead-up, this is really saying something.Even European factories are on the move up, returning to expansion with the sharpest rise in factory output since March 2022. Their factory PMI is now at its highest in 41 months.Australia's factory sector expansion accelerated again in August. Higher new order levels, supported by a rise in exports, led to a solid rise in production. Confidence rose to its highest level since February 2022. The survey showed that manufacturers hired more staff and raised their purchasing and inventory levels. Meanwhile price pressures remained little problem.And staying in Australia, their residential building consents fell -8.2% in July from June, almost double the market expectations of a -4.8% fall. This sharply ate into the upwardly revised +12.2% increase in June. The decline was largely due to a sharp fall in approvals for dwellings that weren't houses (apartments and townhouses). By state, approvals fell sharpest in New South Wales (-25%), while rising in Tasmania (+12%), Western Australia (+12%), in Queensland (+5.9%).Lower new homebuilding is juicing up their existing-home real estate markets. Cotality reported strong August gains from July, up +0.7% for the month nationally. It's back as a strong sellers market. The rises in Brisbane and Perth are notable, but the gains in Adelaide and Sydney were not far behind them in August. The consequences for affordability for most aspiring buyers look awful.We should probably also note that the forecast for Australia's wheat crop was raised sharply in an overnight update. Good rains recently is behind the revision.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time. The key 2-10 yield curve is up at +62 bps. The last time it was this steep was in February 2022. Long dated yields are on the move higher. The UST 30 year yield is actually closing in on 2007 levels. The price of gold will start today at US$3,477/oz, up +US$30 from yesterday and a new record high. Silver topped US$40/oz for the first time since 2011, also near a record high.American oil prices are +50 USc firmer at just over US$64.50/bbl with the international Brent price holding just over US$68/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 59 USc and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps 90 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps as well at 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 66.4, down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,918 and little-changed (down -0.1%) from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news there was an unexpected turn in the US tariff situation late last week.In a dramatic ruling, most of Trump's global tariffs were declared illegal by a US appeals court that found he exceeded his authority in imposing them. He will almost certainly appeal to his Supreme Court.Then, over the weekend we got the official Chinese PMIs for August and they extended the sluggish environment their manufacturing sector finds itself in. Despite the 90 'extension' before punitive tariffs kick in with the US, orders contracted for a fifth consecutive month. On the services side however, they maintained their small expansion in August, albeit marginally better.But early data suggests their housing slump is not ending, maybe even getting worse. Sale volumes in August are likely to be more than -17% lower than a year ago.Although it is a shortened week in the US, it ends with the August jobs data. Markets expect another weak result (just +78,000). You will recall the weak data last month saw Trump fire the agency head who compiled it. So there will be special attention this time on its believability under the BLS agency's deputy. Before that we will get lead-up jobs data, the ISM PMIs for the US.Canada will also release labour market data. The EU inflation data, and others will release GDP data for Q2-2025, including from Australia on Wednesday.At the end of last week, July data out in the US shows that disposable personal income was up +2.0% from a year ago, personal consumption expenditure was up +2.1% on the same basis. On a month-on-month basis, the income was up +0.4% and expenditure up +0.5%. These elements are not major but they do indicate a tightening in household financial budgets.Nested deep within this release was that core PCE index rose 2.9% year-on-year in July, its largest rise since February and above the Fed's target and comfort zone. Tariff costs are getting the blame. Financial markets noticed.And that is the same sort of tightening indicated by the widely-watched University of Michigan sentiment survey. Its final August version fell back markedly from its initial readings, a clear indication households are finding it tougher. It is now -14% lower than a year ago. The Biden boom is now just a memory.On the factory floor, the latest indicators are shifting down too. The August Chicago PMI headed south quite sharply to be -10% below year-ago levels.And the US seems to be losing the tariff war it started - and Americans are paying the tariff-taxes. The latest trade data for July shows that the US merchandise trade deficit jumped to -US$104 billion in the month, exactly the same as July a year ago, and far above expectations of -US$90 bln deficit. It is their largest in four months. Imports jumped +7.1% from a month earlier, led by industrial supplies, capital goods, food, and consumer goods. Meanwhile, exports slipped -0.1%.Certainly, American farmers are not happy. And they have a President who probably doesn't even know where Pakistan is, let alone most other simple facts.In Canada, they got a sharp dose of shock in their Q2-2025 GDP result from the sharp turn on them from their southern neighbour. Their GDP fell -0.4% in the quarter and cancelling out the +0.5% gain in their first quarter. Year-on-year their GDP is still up +0.9% however.Across the Pacific the economic data is generally much more positive. South Korea's retail sales surged +2.5% in July from June, a big jump from a revised +0.7% increase in June and marking the fastest growth in over two years. From a year ago it is up +2.4% and that too is the most since January 2022.South Korean industrial production grew solidly in July as well, up +5.0% from a year ago.After a good gain in June, Japan's industrial production fell -1.6% in July, reversing a +2.1% June gain and much more than the -1.0% decline anticipated.Japanese retail sales only rose by +0.3% in July from a year ago, slowing sharply from a downwardly revised +1.9% gain in June and falling well short of market expectations for a +1.8% increase.But Japanese consumer confidence actually rose in August to its best level of the year with gains across all surveyed questions.We should also note that protests in Jakarta on Friday that turned deadly have put Indonesia on edge. They have spread over the weekend. Canberra will be watching nervously.In Europe, the ECB's survey found that consumer inflation expectations were stable ("well anchored") in July at 2.6% for the year ahead.Globally, air passenger demand was up +4.0% in July, driven by the Asia/Pacific +5.7% rise and held back by the North American +1.9% rise. Most of this is due to international travel. Meanwhile, air cargo traffic was even stronger in July, up +5.5% from a year ago, up +6.0% for international trade. Asia/Pacific was the strongest region here too, up +11.0% for international cargoes. But North American international cargo volumes only rose +1.5%, the weakest global region.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.23%, unchanged from Saturday, but down -3 bps from a week ago. The price of gold will start today at US$3,447/oz, up another +US$5 from Saturday, and close to a new record high, but basically a measure of the USD markdown. A week ago it was at US$3,371/oz so a net +US$76 gainAmerican oil prices are again little-changed at US$64/bbl with the international Brent price holding just under US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 59 USc and unchanged from Saturday at this time, up +30 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are holding at 90.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged as well at 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66.5, and unchanged from Saturday, up +20 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$109,022 and up +0.5% from this time Saturday. But is down -6.7% for the week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

In this bonus episode of Lean Blog Interviews, Mark Graban is joined by William Harvey, AME 2025 Workshop Chair (and 2026 Conference Chair), to preview the AME Annual Conference coming up in St. Louis, October 6–9, 2025. Topics We Discuss ✅ Why AME is for all continuous improvement leaders—not just manufacturing ✅ The 2025 conference theme: Gateway to the Future – AI and Beyond ✅ How AME is blending AI and people integration into learning and networking ✅ Four key workshop tracks, including coaching, TWI, AI, and process excellence ✅ Mark's own Deming Red Bead Game & Process Behavior Charts workshop Whether you're in healthcare, services, or manufacturing, AME offers a unique chance to learn from practitioners, connect with peers, and gain new insights into operational and leadership excellence.

This week's guest is Don Kieffer. Ron and Don discussed the concept of dynamic work design, their individual takes on AI, Don's book, and more. An MP3 audio version of this episode is available for download here. In this episode you'll learn:  Don's quotes (2:13) His background (5:23) Why Don wrote his book (9:35) What a dynamic work design is (13:46) Don's process (16:34) Some example situations (18:45) What has surprised Don (22:10) Don's take on AI (24:59) Achieving the right balance using dynamic work design (30:02) How it compares to TWI (32:46) Don's final words of wisdom (34:22) Podcast Resources Right Click to Download this Podcast as an MP3 There's Got to Be a Better Way The Most Underrated Skill in Management Get All the Latest News from Gemba Academy Our newsletter is a great way to receive updates on new courses, blog posts, and more. Sign up here. What Do You Think? Have you used dynamic work design before?

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news markets have brushed off the Nvidia result and chosen to extend their risk appetite. The S&P500 is at another new record high. But bond markets aren't so sure this is justified.In the real world, US initial jobless claims were little-changed last week from the prior week, both in actual terms and from what seasonal factors would have suggested. There are now 1,945,000 people on these benefits, +101,500 more than at the same time last year.The American GDP Q2-2025 GDP was revised slightly higher in its second estimate than the first mainly due to a slightly smaller decline in investment.Pending home sales fell -0.4% in July from June, extending the -0.8% drop in the prior month to mark the first back-to-back contraction since January. They were down -0.7% from a year ago as the American housing market seems in a long-term slow decline having never really recovering from the pandemic period.The Kansas City Fed factory survey was stable overall but that was despite a fall in export orders and elevated cost pressures. survey. There was a modest rise in August from July, but most metrics are still lower than a year ago.Earlier today there was a much less supported US Treasury seven year bond auction (-11% less bid value) but the median yield fell to 3.87% from 4.06% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In Canada they reported that average weekly earnings were up +3.7% to C$1,302 in June, following a +3.3% increase in May.In India, industrial production rose in July and the pace picked up by more than expected. The expansion was +3.5% when +2.1% was anticipated, and more than double the pace of June's +1.5%.In Europe, despite their inflation pressures being modest and on target, settling it at 2.0%, the overnight release of the ECB minutes revealed a split among policy makers on how to assess future risk. They left their policy rate unchanged despite some thinking rates need to go lower to support growth and counter US tariffs, while others thinking the risk of future inflation is rising. Despite that split review, in the end the decision to hold rates unchanged was unanimous.Global container shipping freight rates fell -6% last week from the week before to be -60% lower than year-ago levels, although that year-ago base reflected unusual stress in the Red Sea shipping lanes. Once again, the recent falls are all to do with outbound trade from China. Interestingly, Chinese shippers are now targeting Australia and New Zealand, along with the Middle East because of the higher rates they can get in these alternative trades. Bulk cargo rates are little changed week-on-week but are up nearly +20% from a year ago.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.21%, down -3 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,415/oz, up +US$20 from yesterday.American oil prices are little-changed at US$64/bbl with the international Brent price is still just under US$68/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.9 USc and up +30 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 90.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 66.4, and up a net +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$112,596 and up +0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we need to brace for an end to the US Fed's independence. It may not be at risk right now, but the signs aren't promising. And politicians everywhere will seize on the mood to pull that level, to ease their own policies that don't deliver. The juice of monetary stimulus is just too enticing, the risks be damned.First in the US, investors are expecting Nvidia's earnings to be reported after the NYSE closing at 8am NZT, seen as a key test for the AI boom driving markets. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are marginally higher in advance of that, while Nvidia shares are little-changed. But the derivatives market in the stock is set for a -6% swing and if that happens, that will be a -NZ$500 bln fall - probably the biggest movement of any economic metric today anywhere in the world. We will know soon enough.Some think we should also watch the share price in Costco and Walmart. They both have lofty valuations that raise the risk of serious correction. These three are all enormous companies - Nvidia has a market cap of an eye-watering US$4.4 tln, Costco US$420 bln, and Walmart is US$770 bln. In each case that is way more than New Zealand's GDP. Walmart plus Costco is approaching Australia's GDP.Staying in the US there was little data out overnight. The volume of mortgage applications softened by -0.5% last week from the previous week, extending the -1.4% trim from the prior month. Applications to refinance an existing mortgage fell by -3.5% offsetting the +2.2% increase in applications for a mortgage to buy a new home.Separately, American officials are decrying the intelligence efforts by the Chinese Ministry of State Security and their 'Salt Typhoon' operation. But they have been caught running covert operations in Greenland. The Dames are unimpressed. Trump's America is no-one's friend. Even at home, his militarisation of local policing, grabbing shares in companies without paying, are worrying developments. His efforts to subvert the Fed are just part of an effective quiet rolling coup with a much broader agenda. These are stand-over tactics that will undermine the US reputation for generations.In Taiwan, their industry may be going at full tilt, but consumer sentiment is actually weakening. An August survey there shows it at its weakest level since April 2023, as five of six key indicators deteriorated.Chinese industrial profits fell again in July, down -1.7% from a year ago in July. They fell -7.5% for SOE's but were up +1.8% for private businesses.Yesterday, there was a big surprise in data released today in Australia on inflation. Their monthly indicator had fallen consistently to 1.9% in June. The RBA was relieved. But the July level came in at 2.8%, an unexpectedly large jump. There will be head-scratching. Higher electricity prices (+13.1%) are getting the blame.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.24%, down -1 bp from yesterday at this time. Long bond yields, especially the 30 year, are rising more quickly now. The price of gold will start today at US$3,395/oz, up +US$14 from yesterday.American oil prices have risen +50 USc to US$64/bbl with the international Brent price now just under US$68/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.6 USc and little-changed from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66.3, and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$112,400 and up +2.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of mixed and confusing economic signals from the world's largest economy where scoring own-goals is becoming an embedded feature of their economic management.But first, there was an overnight Pulse dairy auction for both SMP and WMP and that delivered lower prices with the SMP price dropping -2.0% from the prior week's full dairy auction, and the WMP price down -1.1%In the US, financial markets are quite hesitant because Trump is attempting to fire a non-loyal Fed governor for made-up 'integrity' reasons (pot-kettle-black). Because she in Black, and a woman, Trump's vengeance is particularly pointed.in this case and contrasts starkly with how he treats Powell (which is also personal and isn't good either.) She hasn't been charged with anything let alone convicted, and legal action over the Presidential 'letter' will now follow. She is resisting the bullying. The USD slipped and long dated UST bonds posted losses as market unease spread.Overnight releases of American economic data was quite mixed. First, durable goods orders fell in July from June, down -2.8% and on top of the -9.4% fall in the June result. That takes the year-on-year July result to just a +3.5% rise, about what current inflation can account for. Non-defense, non-aircraft capital goods orders rose a little more than that, up +4.5% from a year ago, so that was positive. But they fell -8.0% in July from June.The Richmond Fed factory survey in the mid-Atlantic states remained negative in August, although not as much as the outsized July retreat. Factories in this region have been doing it tough since March 2025. Cost inflation is hitting them hard as a result of having to pay the tariff taxes. The average growth rate of prices paid increased notably, while growth in prices received was nearly unchanged in August.Yesterday we noted the negative Dallas Fed factory survey for Texas. Today the services survey for the same region was released and it reported a better expansion. But they reported the improvement as 'slight'.There was also only a slight change in consumer sentiment reported by the Conference Board for August. Rising worries about jobs and income were offset by more optimistic views of current and future business conditions, they said. Overall, consumer confidence dipped slightly in August but remained at a level similar to those of the past three months. Tariff-taxes are a key reason there is no improvement in this survey. Consumers' average 12-month inflation expectations picked up after three consecutive months of easing and reached 6.2% in August, up from 5.7% in July.Once rare seven-year car loans are fast becoming the norm in the US. They're often the only way buyers can afford new vehicles, with the average vehicle sale prices surging +28% in five years to approach NZ$85,000. And tariffs will make than much worse. Bloomberg is reporting that in Q2-2025, seven-year vehicle loans represented 21% of all new-vehicle financing. Six-year loans, at one time considered the upper end of the range, are now the most common, accounting for 36%. Some buyers are even now going for eight-year loans.There was a large and well supported two year US Treasury bond auction overnight, resulting in a median yield of 3.60%, down from 3.87% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.North of the border, Canada released some business activity data for July, and both metrics rose and by more than expected. Their wholesale trade was up +1.3% from +0.7% in June, driven by stronger vehicle sales. They manufacturing sales rose +1.8% in July, an improvement from +0.3% in June. Transportation equipment, and the energy sector, provided the key boosts.Across the Pacific in South Korea, you may recall the huge jump in consumer sentiment in July after the peaceful resolution of the attempted executive coup there earlier in the year. The rule of law won. In August, that confidence level dropped sharply as things returned to normal. But to be fair is is still far higher than at any time in the past ten years - despite their ugly treatment by the Trump Administration.In Australia, Australia Post has temporarily partially suspended postal services to the US. All such deliveries now require full customs duties and declarations making the trade impractical for small value items and substantial jeopardy for the shipper. The disruption to such courier services is spreading to most Asian countries now.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, down -3 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3,381/oz, up +US$10 from yesterday.American oil prices have fallen -US$1.50 to US$63.50/bbl with the international Brent price now just under US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.6 USc and little-changed from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 66.3, and also little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$109,747 and down another -2.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that while much of the northern hemisphere is enjoying the last of their summer holidays, Chinese investors have returned in a bullish mood, and in contrast to the now-jaded US equity markets.But first in the US, consumer credit bureau VantageScore is reporting that consumers with the best credit scores (superprime) are showing meaningful signs of credit stress. Among this group late payments have more than doubled in a year. For the group below that ('prime') this metric of delinquency rose almost +50%. (VantageScore is a partnership of Equifax, Experian and TransUnion, and competes with the dominant FICO.)Meanwhile, the widely followed Chicago Fed National Activity Index retreated. This tracking suggested overall American economic growth decreased in July.The Dalla Fed said that in its region factory activity is still expanding but at a slower pace. Although new orders rose (and for the first time in 2025), production activity eased back noticeably. Price and wage pressures rose faster.New house sales in the US stayed at an essentially unchanged pace in July, although marginally softer than in June. Prices dipped, likely because they have a continuing glut of new homes for sale, exceeding nine months' worth at the current sales rate.The latest estimate from the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow live tracking is due tomorrow and is likely to reflect the overall slowdown reported in these other indicators.Across the Pacific, Singapore said it basically doesn't have any inflation. Its July survey came in even lower than was anticipated - even food inflation there is very low.Yesterday, we noticed that the Chinese central bank set its Yuan exchange rate with an outsized shift, now at 7.116 to the USD, a 160 bps strengthening from the prior fix. That makes it its strongest against the greenback since October 2024. It is unclear why this happened because the US dollar index was little-changed in this period. Maybe some of this is related to the recent equities euphoria in the Shanghai stock market - its starting to show the frothy signs that Hong Kong has long displayed.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.28%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time. Wall Street has started its week hesitantly, with the S&P500 down -0.3% in Monday trade. Overnight, European markets opened their week mixed with London up +0.1% but Paris down -1.6%. Yesterday Tokyo started its week up +0.4%. Hong King rose a strong +1.9% and Shanghai mirrored that, up +1.5%. Singapore was up a minor +0.1%. That was matched by the ASX200. The NZX50 rose +0.3% in its Monday trade.The price of gold will start today at US$3,371/oz, little-changed (+US$1) from yesterday.American oil prices have risen +US$1 to US$65/bbl with the international Brent price now just under US$69/bbl. And we should also note that China has imported no natural gas from the US since March and no crude oil since June. But the US keeps importing from China, despite the border tariff taxes, which the US importers seem to be paying.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.6 USc and down -10 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 90.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66.3, little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$112,427 and down -1.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest also at just on +/- 1.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Fed boss Powell gave a hint at Jackson Hole that weaker American labour market conditions may trump inflation risks when they next meet in three weeks - and a rate cut is a live possibility.Before that, Thursday NZT, the market darling Nvidia is set to report its results, and any variation from what is expected to be a stellar result, or any slackening of their outlook indications, could very well have ripple impacts on how investors judge their overall current sky-high valuations across the whole equities landscape. It's a huge immediate risk-point.But this coming week, we will be focusing on the New Zealand employment indicators for July to be released later in the week. And later today, the RBNZ will updated it Dashboard to June, so we can see the market winners (and losers) in the banking sector.Across the ditch, all eyes will be on July's monthly CPI data to be released on Wednesday.China will be releasing its August PMIs this week. India will updated its Q2-GDP, and its July industrial production data. And Canada will also have a Q2-GDP update too.But we shouldn't forget that the northern hemisphere has been getting in the last of its summer vacations recently. This is the final week before the US Labor Day national holiday on September 1, 2025, the traditional end of their summer holiday period and when their financial markets build back up to full strength.They will be coming back after digesting the Fed's latest indicators from Powell's Jackson Hole speech. He noted the core US economy has weathered the "sweeping changes in [US] economic policy" well, but now says "the balance of risks appears to be shifting" - to the negative side. Markets have taken this as a hint a rate cut could come as early as their mid September meeting.The US equity markets roared back to post a record high in Friday. The USD fell. Benchmark bond yields retreated.However, in the euphoria of the possibility of a rate cut markets seem to be ignoring this part: "inflation expectations could move up, dragging actual inflation with them. Inflation has been above our target for more than four years and remains a prominent concern for households and businesses". But they are betting on the 'transitory' inflation story again. Inflation embedded for four years, and juiced by tariffs, will be ignored at their peril.Across the border, Canadian retail sales in June were +6.5% higher than a year ago, the best rise since the pandemic recovery period in 2022. But some of this is just higher prices flowing through from their tariff dispute with the US, and a small correction dip is expected in the July data. And the Canadians are not ignoring the inflation risks of tariffs. To keep a lid on these inflationary effects of that dispute, Canada said it will roll back some of its retaliatory tariffs on the US. The US isn't doing the same, so their consumers will still pay the extra on imports.Across the Pacific, China reported more ugly foreign direct investment data over the weekend. While it didn't actually shrink like it did in April and June, it is running -13.4% below year ago levels, and it is still less than half the July ytd levels of 2022 or 2023, and down -7.3% from last year. The June to July gain this year, while welcome, isn't anything more than a statistical blip in the context of the fall away over the last four years.So it is no surprise that Beijing is reorienting to a focus on internal consumption - something they have a chance of still controlling. The international trade environment isn't moving in their favour and even where they do still get gains, they are not enough to move their needle.There was a surprising dip in Japanese inflation in July. It eased to 3.1% from 3.3% in the previous month, the lowest reading since November 2024. Helping was that electricity prices fell for the first time since April 2024. But food prices jumped +7.6%, the most since February. Again, rice was the big culprit.New data out from the Australian statistics bureau shows their R&D investment grew by +18% to AU$24 bln in 2023-24. The strongest growth was in IT including spending on Artificial Intelligence, which grew by +142% since 2021-2022.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.26%, essentially unchanged from Saturday at this time, down -6 bps for the week.Wall Street roared back in Friday trade with the S&P500 up +1.5% after the Powell hint of a rate cut next month. That means it is able to claim a +0.4% advance for the week which pushed it to a new record high.The price of gold will start today at US$3,370/oz, down -US$1 from Saturday, up +US$36 for the week.American oil prices have held at just under US$64/bbl with the international Brent price now just under US$68/bbl. These levels are more than +US$1 higher than a week agoThe Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.7 USc and unchanged from Saturday at this time. Against the Aussie we also holding at 90.4 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged too at 50.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66.3, little-changed from Saturday but down -60 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$114,366 and down -2.2% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very low at just under +/- 0.6%.And finally, in Australia, AML regulator Austrac has directed Binance to appoint an external auditor after identifying serious concerns with the crypto exchange's anti-money laundering and counter terrorism financing controls.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the financial world is waiting for Fed boss Powell's Jackson Hole scene setting speech.In the meantime, US initial jobless claims held steady last week from the prior week at +195,000. But in fact seasonal factors should have produced a good fall. So seasonally adjusted, they are reporting an unexpected rise. The number of people on these benefits held at 1.97 mln when they usually retreat at this time of year. Analysts are flagging concerns about the lack of progress. A year ago they fell to 1.86 mln, so they are +110,000 higher now than then.US existing home sales rose, and by more than expected in July and only the second month-on-month gain of 2025. They ran at the rate of 4 mln per year, the best level since February. However, the stock of unsold homes swelled (to 19 weeks of supply), and the latest sales came with the average selling price dropping, now at US$422,400.More generally, around their overnight earnings release, the Walmart CEO noted that tariff-tax price pressure is driving up prices on a weekly basis now. However, they reckon they will get a net benefit as shoppers turn to them from others forced into even higher increases.And the Conference Board's index of leading indicators fell in July, extending its 2025 retreat and at a faster pace in the past six months than the prior six months. Keeping the pressure on this index are the retreats in new orders, and weak consumer sentiment.The Philly Fed's factory survey certainly shows the new order problem which turned negative in August. And firms report that inflation is embedding at higher levels for their input costs. There is a sense that this heartland manufacturing region is starting to go backwards again. Those in this survey 'expect growth' in the future, but they have been signaling that for all of 2025 and if that aspect turns, things will possibly feel a bit grim there.But the early August S&P Global/Markit PMIs for the US are not downbeat. On the factory side, they report a good recovery from July. On the services side a slip from a still-expanding base. They also report faster input inflation as they paid the tariff-taxes.The Canadians also reported rising input costs in their PPI release overnight.Japanese business is on the rise. Business activity across Japan's private sector expanded at the fastest rate since February midway through the third quarter, according to the August PMI survey data. The upturn was supported by a fresh increase in factory production alongside a further solid rise in activity at service providers. Total new business also expanded at the quickest rate in six months, though this was driven solely by the service sector. New export business fell at a steeper rate, however.In China, it is becoming clearer that officials are increasingly worried about strained finances at central and local government agencies, and that both firms and employees are suffering from delayed payments. Apparently, the pressures are severe, warranting President's Xi's attention. Special bond issues are underway to juice up the necessary funding.In Europe, the flash PMI reports indicate an improving situation for both manufacturers, and in the service sector. New orders increased for first time in 15 months in August. The factory PMI rose to expansion and its best in more than three years. Its services sector expanded faster, although like everything in Europe the benchmarks are not high compared to the rest of the world.Overall EU consumer sentiment held at modest levels in August, although to be direct, they are still substantially negative and remain lower than their long-run average.In Australia, the S&P Global/Markit August PMIs are quite upbeat. They said Australia's business activity growth accelerated midway through the third quarter, with faster expansions across both the manufacturing and service sectors. This was supported by higher new work inflows, including a renewed expansion in exports. In turn, Australian private sector firms raised their staffing levels at a faster rate to cope with additional workloads. Business sentiment also improved slightly from July.Australian consumer inflation expectations fell to 3.9% in August from 4.7% in July, easing for the second straight month and marking the lowest level since March.And energy regulator AEMO says more wind, solar and storage capacity was added over the past year to the electricity grid in Queensland, NSW and Victoria than in any year before. The risk of blackouts and service disruptions is fading, they say.Globally, container shipping freight rates fell -4% last week from the prior week to be -60% lower than year-ago levels, although year-ago there was extensive stress from tensions in the Red Sea. All the weakness currently is in outbound cargoes from China. Bulk cargo freight rates fell -5% over the past week, but they are still +10% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.33%, up +4 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,337/oz, down -US$10 from yesterday.American oil prices have risen +US$1 to just under US$63.50/bbl with the international Brent price up +US$1 to just over US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.2 USc and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we have held at 90.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 66.2, and up +10 bps helped by a gain against the yen.The bitcoin price starts today at US$114,270 and essentially unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/-1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US Fed thinks inflation risks outweigh concerns about their labour market.But first. in its familiar yoyo pattern, US mortgage applications fell last week by -1.4% from the prior week, but that makes then +10% higher than the same week a year ago. The softness over the past week is all related to softer refinance activity, even though benchmark 30 year mortgage rates changed little.The US Fed released the minutes of its July meeting and that revealed the stances of the two Trump supporters on th nine-member voting panel. "Almost all" officials supported keeping rates unchanged at 4.25%, with those two dissenting in favour of a quarter-point cut to protect a weakening job market. It seems ironic that they should use that reason, because Trump fired the BLS chief for producing results that showed the American labour market weakening. One of the two, Christopher Waller, is considered the front-runner to replace Powell when his term ends. The two dissenters seem isolated in the group at this time.But that has not stopped Trump supporters making up 'fraud' claims against sitting Fed members in an effort to twist the voting panel.These minutes had no impact on financial markets.There was a well-supported US Treasury 20 year bond tender earlier today that delivered a median yield of 4.82%. That was lower than the 4.89% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In Canada, a survey of small business owners turned more positive in July - even though their trade association claimed that 38% of them won't last a year without tariff changes.Across the Pacific, Taiwan turned in another very strong rise in export orders, up +15% in July from a year ago. After the +25% rise in June, this remains impressive but is what analysts have now come to expect.In Indonesia, they had a central bank review of their 5.25% policy interest rate yesterday and no change was anticipated. But in fact they cut by -25 bps to 5.00%, the fifth cut over the past year. They are confident inflation will remain contained and are moving to support "the need to stimulate economic growth in line with the economy's capacity".In the UK, their CPI inflation rate rose to 3.8% in July, its highest since January 2024. Driving the rise were cost increases from transport, holidays, food and fuel. These were offset by slower increases in rents (even if they are still rising fast). They have their own twist on the CPI called the CPIH which they emphasise, which adds in owner-occupier housing costs, and that rose 4.2%. That draws in imputed rents, stamp duties, and the cost of maintenance improvements. Either way, they have a sharpish inflation problem.In Australia, AUSTRAC said real estate agents are one of the key to tackling scams, drug trafficking and organised crime. Along with banks and lawyers, real estate agents are going to get more focus on fighting money laundering.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.29%, down -1 bp from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,347/oz, up +US$31 from yesterday.American oil prices have stabilised at just over US$62.50/bbl with the international Brent price up +US$1 to just over US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.3 USc and down -70 bps from yesterday following the dovish RBNZ MPS. Against the Aussie we have fallen -80 bps to 90.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -60 bps at 50 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66.1, and down -80 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$114,270 and up +0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-0.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

What happens when two accomplished psychotherapists discover, well into adulthood, that they have ADHD? In this thought-provoking episode, host Diann Wingert welcomes Lisa Lackey, a licensed therapist, coach, speaker, and community builder, to candidly explore their parallel journeys of late diagnosis, high achievement, and the transformative power of midlife self-discovery.Together, they unpack what it means to awaken to neurodivergence after decades of "successful" living, the intersection of menopause and mental health, and the unique journey women take as they move from striving and struggle toward authenticity and fulfillment in their second act.Guest Bio: Lisa Lackey (she/her)Lisa Lackey is a licensed psychotherapist, coach, and speaker with decades of experience supporting high-achieving individuals facing addiction, anxiety, depression, and now, navigating the complexities of neurodiversity and midlife transitions. After being diagnosed with ADHD later in life, Lisa transformed her approach—creating supportive spaces for women, particularly Black women, to rediscover their authentic selves, reclaim joy, and build community in the second half of life. Lisa is passionate about spiritual growth, legacy work, and helping others write their own rules for fulfillment.Episode Highlights – What You'll LearnWhy ADHD is often missed in high-achieving women, and how self-awareness—and even reading the “right” book—can be a game changer.How hyper-competence, overachievement, and the ability to "make it work" can hide ADHD symptoms for decades.Understanding how hormonal changes bring ADHD and identity struggles front and center for so many women in midlife.Lisa's concept of the “second knowing”- waking up in midlife, letting go of societal shoulds, and connecting to your true purpose and inner wisdom.How women—especially women of color—can build new definitions of success, heal generational burdens, and lift each other up.Connect with Lisa LackeyWebsite: Inside Out RecoveryLinkedIn: Lisa Lackey on LinkedInMentioned by our guest:Driven to Distraction by Ned Hallowell, MD - the book Lisa read in 2 hours & recognized her own ADHD Bell Hooks - Black author, best known for her work on race, feminism & social class Sankofa - a word in the Twi language of Ghana, meaning “to retrieve” If something in this episode struck a chord, share it with a friend, leave us a review, or drop a comment on Spotify about your own late diagnosis and mid life awakening. © 2025 ADHD-ish Podcast. Intro music by Ishan Dincer / Melody Loops / Outro music by Vladimir / Bobi Music / All rights reserved.

What happens when two accomplished psychotherapists discover, well into adulthood, that they have ADHD? In this thought-provoking episode, host Diann Wingert welcomes Lisa Lackey, a licensed therapist, coach, speaker, and community builder, to candidly explore their parallel journeys of late diagnosis, high achievement, and the transformative power of midlife self-discovery.Together, they unpack what it means to awaken to neurodivergence after decades of "successful" living, the intersection of menopause and mental health, and the unique journey women take as they move from striving and struggle toward authenticity and fulfillment in their second act.Guest Bio: Lisa Lackey (she/her)Lisa Lackey is a licensed psychotherapist, coach, and speaker with decades of experience supporting high-achieving individuals facing addiction, anxiety, depression, and now, navigating the complexities of neurodiversity and midlife transitions. After being diagnosed with ADHD later in life, Lisa transformed her approach—creating supportive spaces for women, particularly Black women, to rediscover their authentic selves, reclaim joy, and build community in the second half of life. Lisa is passionate about spiritual growth, legacy work, and helping others write their own rules for fulfillment.Episode Highlights – What You'll LearnWhy ADHD is often missed in high-achieving women, and how self-awareness—and even reading the “right” book—can be a game changer.How hyper-competence, overachievement, and the ability to "make it work" can hide ADHD symptoms for decades.Understanding how hormonal changes bring ADHD and identity struggles front and center for so many women in midlife.Lisa's concept of the “second knowing”- waking up in midlife, letting go of societal shoulds, and connecting to your true purpose and inner wisdom.How women—especially women of color—can build new definitions of success, heal generational burdens, and lift each other up.Connect with Lisa LackeyWebsite: Inside Out RecoveryLinkedIn: Lisa Lackey on LinkedInMentioned by our guest:Driven to Distraction by Ned Hallowell, MD - the book Lisa read in 2 hours & recognized her own ADHD Bell Hooks - Black author, best known for her work on race, feminism & social class Sankofa - a word in the Twi language of Ghana, meaning “to retrieve” If something in this episode struck a chord, share it with a friend, leave us a review, or drop a comment on Spotify about your own late diagnosis and mid life awakening. © 2025 ADHD-ish Podcast. Intro music by Ishan Dincer / Melody Loops / Outro music by Vladimir / Bobi Music / All rights reserved.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news commodity prices are taking a hit in global markets today as overall economic prospects are under scrutiny in both the US and China. And Wall Street is following them down, in their case led by tech firms.Prices for both hard and soft commodities are in retreat today, including oil, natural gas, steel, copper, aluminium, wheat, and soybeans. Even bitcoin is falling, down -8.5% over the past week when it hit a recent high note. But not everything.Today's full dairy auction revealed better demand from a wider range of markets than was expected so the declines anticipated were much less, in fact just -0.3% overall. Good buying of WMP and not only from China saw this rise slightly and that limited any overall downside. But there were lower prices for cheese, butter and SMP - lower, but about what was expected for these categories.In the US, housing starts rose a bit more than expected. But the gain was accentuated because July 2024 was unusually weak and that was because for some reason the 2024 bump came in August. Still it was encouraging because analysts had expected a small retreat in July. Still, the general level remains well below the general levels over the prior years. And new building permits were unusually low in July and are now running at their lowest level since June 2020. So the future isn't that bright in this sector.In the rural sector, American farmers are particularly worried about how the Trump Administration is upending their industry, and questions about survivability are arising. Many apparently face bankruptcy.Canadian CPI inflation fell, and by a bit more than expected. It came in at 1.9% in June in a small blip up. It was expected to slip back to a 1.8% rate but in fact came in at 1.7%, the same level it was in April and May. Fuel prices led the decline, but rents rose +3.0% and grocery prices were up +3.4% This will make it tricky for their central bank when they next meet on September 17.Across the Pacific, the top leaders in China have been on vacation and are now starting to return to active front-line duty.Meanwhile, Malaysian exports turned out to be much stronger in July than anticipated. They rose +6.8% in July from the same month a year ago, defying market expectations of a -5% drop. They also revised their June result to be a smaller dip than first reported. Malaysia imports were expected to fall sharply, but in fact held their own.In Australia, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index surged 5.7% in August to its highest since February 2022, after a small rise in July. All components rose: family finances compared to a year ago rose +6.2%, while expectations for the next 12 months climbed +5.4%. Views on the economy improved, with the 12-month outlook up +7.6% and the 5-year outlook rose +5.4%, both above historical norms. The time to buy a major household item index gained +4.2%, while unemployment expectations fell -2.4%, still below the long-run level of 129. Their long spell of consumer pessimism may be ending, though sustaining momentum could require more easing. This survey underscores why the second-term Albanese government is riding ever higher in their polls, and the right-wing opposition parties are in disarray.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.30%, down -4 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,316/oz, down -US$17 from yesterday.American oil prices have fallen -US$1 to be just under US$62.50/bbl with the international Brent price over US$65.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 59 USc and down -20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we have firmed +20 bps to 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 50.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66.9, and down -10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$113,512 and down -2.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/-1.5%.Join us from 2pm NZT this afternoon for full overage of the RBNZ OCR decision and the following press conference.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that attention will now turn to the annual Fed meeting in Jackson Hole, WO. This year Fed boss Powell is not only trying to balance US monetary policy settings between rising inflation pressures and a basically stable (and good) labour market, he also has to contend with a unstable fiscal policies and political pressure, with two and soon to be three voting members who want to appease the "low rate" President. He is earning his keep at present, and this summer forum will be a way for him to make his case.Special attention will be on his comments about rate cut prospects, something markets have mostly priced in for the September 18 meetings. Currently, analysts expect Powell to be coy about his signals for a rate cut.But on the current data front in the US, their housebuilding industry remains quite glum. The NAHB index of sentiment in the sector is near a record low, only worse during one month in the pandemic. And the July retreat was not expected. Builder sentiment has now been in negative territory for 16 consecutive months and their key problem is costs, induced recently by tariff taxes, and keeping new housing basically unaffordable for new buyers.But north of the border, its quite a different situation. Canadian housing starts hit a three year high in July, up +3.7% from June which was also a very strong month. The Canadians are tackling their housing affordability issue with a strong push for more supply. The key gains are with multi-unit housing in Montreal and the Prairie Provinces.It is not something we have reported on before, but India is now releasing monthly unemployment data. Previously it was quarterly and the latest release shows this key metric at 4.2% in July, which is a record low since records started in 1995. Nothing like an expanding economy to pull down the jobless rates.Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) fell -4.6% year-on-year in July, reversing a downwardly revised +12.9% surge in June and establishing a yoyo pattern. This marked the third decline so far this year and the steepest contraction since October 2024, due to a fall in non-electronic exports, especially to the US (-48%) but also China -12%). Perhaps more worrying, near neighbours Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia all bought significantly less in July.In China, the $2 bln trade in dairy products from the EU to China is under investigation by political authorities as part of pressures China is exerting as countermeasures for EU restrictions on China. Now the Chinese are drawing out the pressure with another extension to the probe, due to "complexity" in the case.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.34%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,333/oz, essentially unchanged from yesterday.American oil prices have firmed slightly to be just under US$63.50/bbl with the international Brent price under US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 59.2 USc and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we have firmed +20 bps to 91.2 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +20 bps at 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67, and up +20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$116,576 and down -1.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/-1.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news consumer hesitations are showing up the world's largest economies.But first, our week ahead will be dominated by Wednesday's RBNZ OCR rate review, one that is widely expected, by both analysts and financial markets, to deliver a -25 bps cut. That will flow though to floating mortgage and savings rates, but it is far less clear it will affect fixed home loan rates given we have had a full range of cuts last week.In Australia this week it will be all about consumer inflation expectations and consumer sentiment.Elsewhere, in the shadow of northern hemisphere vacations, Canada and Japan will release updated CPI data, and there will be a focus on the US Fed, who with guests, will be huddling in Jackson Hole, WY, again. This time the comments from the two Trump-aligned board members will no doubt hog the limelight.All the while, PMI releases will ground us in the real economy.And in the real economy, Chinese retail sales rose +3.7% in July from a year ago, slowing from a +4.8% expansion in June. Markets were expecting a +4.6% gain in July, so this is a disappointment. This latest result is their weakest growth since December 2024.Meanwhile, China's industrial production expanded by +5.7% in July from a year ago, slowing from June's three-month high of +6.8%. Expectations were for a 5.9% gain so this miss is small. But it is the softest increase in industrial production since last November. That comes after capacity curbs caused by unusually high temperatures and heavy rainfall in some regions.The more important metric of Chinese electricity production saw it rise +3.1% in July from a year ago, a faster expansion than in June. Hydro power was down -9.8% on the same basis, coal power up +4.3%, and nuclear power up +8.3%. The smaller renewals sector's rise was much faster than all of these.And China's new home prices in the 70 major reference cities dropped by -2.8% in July from a year ago, easing from a -3.2% decline in the previous month. It was the 25th consecutive month of contraction, the softest pace since March 2024. Only five of those 70 cities had any increase, and those were all marginal at best. But then again, so were the dips. For resales, there were no cities showing any year-on-year gains and only one (Taiyuan, in Shanxi province) with a monthly gain.Overall, it's a picture of a slightly slowing Chinese economy across all sectors and that will tell Beijing that its stimulus efforts so far are insufficient to keep up with the forces that are dragging it slower. But Beijing is calling the economy 'steady'.And staying in Asia, Malaysia's economy expanded by +4.4% year-on-year in the June quarter, matching the pace in Q1 and slightly below the initial estimate of +4.5%.In the US economy, retail sales rose +0.5% in July from June, as expected and following an upwardly revised 0.9% rise in June. This was largely due to car buying. They are up +3.9% from a year ago but that gain has been falling from the recent +5.1% peak in March. Although tariff-taxes account for most of the gain, overall there is a small real gain here. However without cars, this would look quite negative.In the New York region, they saw a modest rise in business activity in their factories in July based on rising new orders.And that is supported by national industrial output data. While American industrial production edged down -0.1% in July, missing forecasts of a flat reading and following an upwardly revised +0.4% rise in June, the decline was only because the mining sector was weak. Factory output, which makes up about 78% of total industrial production, edged up +0.1% in July, after increasing +0.3% in June. From year-ago levels it is up +1.4%, similar to most of 2025.Not so positive is American consumer sentiment and they don't like what they see ahead. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment August survey fell sharply from July and well below what was expected. It was the first fall in four months, mainly due to growing inflation concerns and sharply worse buying conditions for durable goods. Those surveyed anticipate worsening inflation and unemployment ahead. Overall this survey is more than -13% worse than year ago levels.And in Europe, data released over the weekend shows that Ireland's exports to the US dropped by almost a quarter in June compared to a year ago. Tariffs got the blame. (But they were able to reorient about half of that drop to the UK.)More globally, we should note that international shipping costs are starting to be roiled by the new Trump rule of tariff-extras/extra port fees for Chinese-made ships that dock there that comes into effect in five weeks. That will raise freight costs for Americans, and with extra capacity in other trades, probably bringing lower costs elsewhere.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.33%, up +1 bp from Saturday at this time, up +4 bps for the week.The price of gold will start today at US$3,334/oz, unchanged from Saturday, but down -US$61 for the week.American oil prices have firmed slightly to be just over US$63/bbl with the international Brent price over US$66/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just over 59.2 USc and unchanged from Saturday. But it is down -40 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we have dipped -10 bps to 91 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 50.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 66.8, down -10 bps from Saturday and down -½c for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,422 and down -0.3% from this time yesterday. But up +0.5% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-1.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news tariff-costs seem to be having much more impact on US prices than on global trade.But first, US initial jobless claims rose slightly last week to 199,000 but that was slightly lower than seasonal factors would have accounted for. There are now just over 2 mln people on these benefits, +100,000 more than at the same time last year.However, rising much more were producer prices. They are up +3.3% in July from a year ago, a jump from June's +2.4% and much higher than the expected +2.5%. This ends a period where these costs eased since February with a notable reversal. The month-on-month rise was outsized and we make that the largest non-pandemic jump since 2012. This data is having traders re-think their bets on the September 18 US Fed rate review. Currently they expect a -25 bps cut, despite White House pressures. They have two more -25 bps cuts priced in through to january 2026, so maybe some of those could get reassessed. Today's PPI data may signal the tariff-induced inflation is only just starting.In China, they are wrestling - endlessly it seems - with how to staunch the property development sector's bleeding. The latest idea is that Beijing's SOEs but up the unsold housing overhang.India's exports rose in July, but their imports jumped much more so their trade deficit worsened and is much more negative than it was a year ago for the same month.Meanwhile, S&P have upgraded the Indian sovereign credit rating to 'BBB' from 'BBB-' and changed the outlook to stable from positive. It said the upgrade was based on economic resilience and sustained fiscal consolidation. They noted the strong growth momentum, said monetary policy was credible, and added that the impact of Trump's tariffs should be manageableIn Australia, one of their largest superannuation funds failed to tell regulator ASIC about investigations into serious member services issues, including incorrect insurance premium refunds for dead members. This is part of what ASIC is alleging in an Australian Federal Court suit launched yesterday.And staying in Australia, their jobless rate eased to 4.2% in July, down from the four year high of 4.3% in June. The decline was driven by a drop of 10,200 in the number of unemployed, bringing the total to 649,600. Meanwhile, employment rose by +24,500 to a record high of 14.6 mln following a downwardly revised gain of +1,000 in June. Full-time employment rose by +60,500 while part-time positions fell by -35,900. Female participation hit a record high of 63.5%.Global container freight rates fell in a broad shift lower to be down -3% last week from the prior week and down -59% from year ago levels. Those year ago levels were an unusually high benchmark due to Red Sea security factors back then. Bulk freight rates were little-changed over the past week, but are +20% above year ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.28%, up +5 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3,335/oz, down -US$17 from yesterday.American oil prices have risen +US$1.50 to be just under US$64/bbl with the international Brent price up a bit less at US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 59.1 USc and down -60 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 66.9, down -40 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,741 and down -3.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/-2.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of a rare drop in bank lending in China from weak demand.But first up today, we need to report that "due to a technical issue", yesterday's GDT Pulse Auction was cancelled prior to its completion.Meanwhile in the US, and boosted by a very sharp surge in refinance activity, mortgage applications were up more than +10% last week from the week earlier. Refi clients too advantage of a small -10 bps dip in the benchmark interest rate. But applications to finance a new home purchase actually fell last week from the prior week. Still, that is +16% higher than year-ago levels.The Trump Administration is increasingly worried about the outlook for their economy. Tariff costs are choking off expansion. We will get a GDPNow update of economic activity later this week, but it is likely to be quite soft. Now Treasury Secretary Bessent is calling for a -150 bps rate cut by the Fed to counter the expected decline, and telling them to ignore the building inflation.In Japan, machine tool orders rose +3.6% in July driven by stronger export orders.In China, there has been an unexpected surprise in the release of their bank lending data for July released overnight. It actually fell for the first time in more than twenty years. It fell -¥50 bln in July from the prior month. A +¥300 bln increase was expected. July is often a shadow month after the quarter end, but actual declines are almost unheard of in the modern era. Overall social funding rose, but that is bolstered ny economic support measures. That commercial firms are borrowing less is undoubtedly not a trend Beijing wants to see.The slowdown domestically, and severe overcapacity has seen Chinese steel products dumped in international markets. More countries like Japan and South Korea are considering anti-dumping actions against Chinese steel, while India has several probes underway. Chile has imposed temporary anti-dumping tariffs to protect its steel industry. These moves come after the US and Canada imposed their restrictions. These actions against Chinese steel will no doubt get more strident unless China removes a meaningful proportion of its overcapacity.That makes Australia vulnerable.Australia imports a significant amount of steel from China (more than AU$4 bln/year), with structural steel being a major category. And this is rising and a threat to local steel mills. Australia is in a tough spot dealing with China on the issue because their iron ore exports are the main Australian advantage (about AU$100 bls/year). And quality is another advantage of local steel products. There are rising concerns about the quality and compliance with Australian standards of some imported Chinese steel products.New owner-occupier loan values in Australia were up +7.2% in June from the same quarter in 2024. But the number of new loans was up only +0.2% on the same basis. This reflects the frothy housing markets in many state capital cities. The biggest value increases were for owner-occupiers who weren't first home buyers with these loan values up +9.8%. Volumes for that group were up+1.0%. First home buyers in Australia are the weakest borrowers, largely shut out of their housing markets.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.24%, down -5 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,353/oz, up +US$6 from yesterday.American oil prices have fallen another -US$1 to be just under US$62.50/bbl with the international Brent price now at US$65.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 59.7 USc and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are also up +10 bps at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.3, up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price started today at US$121,559 and up +1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/-1.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news inflation is staying high in the US but retreating in India and Australia.The US CPI inflation rate remained at 2.7% in July, the same as in June and below forecasts of 2.8%. Still it is worth noting that June's level caused Trump to fire the bearer of that news. But the level has been held anyway. Food prices also were steady at +2.9%. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, accelerated to a five-month high of 3.1%, compared to 2.9% in June and above forecasts of 3%. The monthly core CPI went up +0.3% as expected, its sharpest rise in six months.Apparently, importers were still absorbing most of the border tariff taxes.The new head of the agency responsible for this data (a Heritage Foundation official) has suggested they stop publishing monthly jobs data, especially for jobs, until "errors can be corrected". (Code for, what the White House wants.)What today's inflation data means for a Fed rate cut is still uncertain - for some. Equity markets are betting this "as expected" result will allow one and their bets are now 90% certain a cut will come on September 18 (NZT). Bond markets are a bit more sceptical. Currency markets remain bearish on the USD.Record expected corn production in the US, and closing international appetites for politicised trade uncertainties brought a swift fall in corn prices. The same USDA WASDE report says beef prices are rising in lower tariff-induced imports from Brazil and lower domestic production. US milk prices are little-changed but they expect to import more SMP.The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose in July from June but it still not back to levels of earlier in the year. This latest rise is all about current outcomes rather than future conditions. The uncertainty subcategory was still high and rising.The US government posted a -US$291 bln budget deficit in July, despite a +US$21 bln boost in border tariff collections from importers, as spending outpaced revenues. The shortfall was US$47 bln larger than a year earlier, with receipts rising +2% to US$338 bln but outlays jumping +10% to a record US$630 bln for the month. The unexpected worsening seems to have been ignored by equity markets who 'liked' the inflation result.But the bond market is bracing for the impact of an additional US$500 bln in Treasury Bond issuance over the next six months. Benchmark yields rose.In Canada, a sharper than expected fall in Vancouver multi-unit house building permits, along with a sharper than expected fall in Toronto commercial building, has seen the Canadian building permit levels in June retreat much more sharply than expected. This retreat comes after an unusually strong gain in May however.In India, CPI inflation is retreating rapidly now, coming in in July at only 1.6% fron a year ago. In June it rose 2.1%. The July level is almost as low as the all-time low of 1.5% in June eight years ago. In the latest data, food prices deflated -1.8% and this was by far the major reason for the overall easing. The result is now well below the RBI inflation tolerance band of 2-6% so official rate cutting may come into play. But arguing against that is the record weakness on the Indian rupee.In Germany, ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment fell back for the first time in four months, mainly on the disappointing outcomes in the EU-US tariff 'negotiations'. But overall sentiment remain relatively high there in a long term perspective.In Australia, and in a unanimous decision, the nine member Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board has cut its cash rate target by -25 bps to 3.60%, saying a further easing of monetary policy is appropriate after a pause at its last review in July. Most banks announced they would pass it on in full to home loan borrowers. Lower inflation tracks are behind the official rate cut.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.29%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3,347/oz, down -US$7 from yesterday.American oil prices have softened -50 USc to be just under US$63.50/bbl with the international Brent price now at US$66/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 59.6 USc and up +20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 91.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.2, unchanged from yesterday.The bitcoin price started today at US$119*,329 and down -0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/-0.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US is deploying new shakedown tactics on its exporters to give some favoured tech companies tariff and national security export relief - if they pay.However first, China's vehicle sales were up almost 15% in July from a year ago, following a nearly +14% rise in June. That means they sold 2.6 mln units in July. The sales pace is running far higher in 2025 than the record pace in 2024, but the really large sales months don't come until late in the second half of the year. Sales of new energy vehicles surged 27% year-on-year to more than 1.25 mln units in July, accounting for nearly half of all new car sales and marking the fifth consecutive monthly increase.Hong Kong listed Chinese property developer, China South City Holdings, has been suspended after a Hong Kong court ordered its winding up. That ends a years-long process of attempting to survive through reorganisation and emphasises how tough the Chinese property development market is still.In India, there are reports their central bank is in the markets supporting the falling rupee. So far they have spent US$5 bln on the operation to no obvious impact, although it may have helped slow the devaluation.In the US, the Federal Government is finding new ways to tax. First it was tariffs (import taxes), now it is export taxes. It is extracting 15% from chip sales, starting with exports to China. These shakedown of corporate America come with waiving tariffs or national security export restrictions, giving the company advantages over its rivals. Very Soprano. It is a habit sure to spread, ushering in a period of hyper crony-capitalism - one that may be indistinguishable from capitalism-with-Chinese-characteristics. The Chinese at least are trying to wean themselves off the habit, because it led them nowhere.Tomorrow, the US will release its CPI data. And after the firing of its agency head last month because Trump didn't like the result, this will draw special scrutiny, especially as tariff costs are increasingly being passed on. The key reaction to watch will be how TIPS bonds are prices (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities). The CPI rate is the basis for these yields and it they are going to be artificially interfered with, investors may sell down this US$2.1 tln bond market corner. If that happens, we will all notice. Markets expect the 2.7% CPI rate in June (the one Trump didn't like) to rise to 2.8%, and the core rate to hit 3% - for the first time in five months and calling an end to the disinflation cycle and the start of re-inflation.Later today we get the RBA's latest rate decision. It almost certainly will announce a cut of -25 bps to 3.60%. And before that the wide-watched NAB business sentiment survey will be released. It isn't expected to show much change from the modestly positive readings.And as important as today's announcements will be, don't forget tomorrow CBA will release its annual 2025 results to June. And they are widely expected to be a record exceeding AU$10 bln. It is ranked in the mid 40s on an assets basis, but it is one of the worlds most profitable.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.26%, down -2 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3,354/oz, down -US$44 from yesterday.American oil prices have firmed +50 USc to be just under US$64/bbl with the international Brent price now at US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at 59.3 USc and down -20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are also down -20 bps at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.2, down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price started today at US$119,552 and up +0.8% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/-1.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news geopolitics will suck up all the headlines this week, but we will focus on how the world's economies are faring.This coming week will have a focus on Australia, and the RBA's Tuesday cash rate target review. "Everyone" expects them to cut by -25 bps to 3.60% - the more so because they skipped the expected cut at their July 9 review. There will be interest in the NAB business sentiment report this week tooIn the US, the economic focus will be on CPI, PPI, retail sales and industrial production data. Market analysts aren't expecting to see much expansion and are expecting to see higher inflation. There will also be another consumer sentiment survey released this week too.In Europe it will be all about GDP and sentiment updates. In Japan, we get to learn their Q2 GDP result. In India the focus will be on inflation updates.In China there will be some big data released including for industrial production, retail sales, and new bank lending.Over the weekend China released its July CPI data. It rose +0.4% from June, to be unchanged from a year ago. They are being suppressed by Beijing's subsidy programs. Food prices fell marginally in the month to be -1.0% lower than a year ago. Beef prices however rose +3.6% on that annual basis, sheepmeat prices fell -1.4%, and milk was down -1.3%.Meanwhile overall producer prices deflated quicker, down -3.6% from a year ago. Producer purchase prices were down -4.5%, taking it to almost three years of continuous monthly declines. That's serious deflation.More globally, the July world food price index inched higher, but that masks record higher prices for meat proteins. And those were driven by beef and sheep prices. Dairy prices eased back from June but only slightly and they remain very near record levels.Canada released its July labour market report over the weekend showing 1.6 mln people unemployed for a jobless rate of 6.9%. That's high even if it is stable, and the number of people employed fell by -40,800, with a drop of -51,000 in full-time jobs and a rise of +10,000 in part-time jobs. The decline was mostly among 15-24 year olds. Markets had expected overall employment to rise by +13,000.In Japan, June data for household spending rose +1.3% from the same month a year ago, down sharply from a +4.7% increase in May. Forecasts were for a +2.6% rise. Households were worried about the impact of US tariffs and persistent inflation on consumer activity. On a monthly basis, spending plunged -5.2% in June from May, reversing May's +4.6% rise and undershooting expectations of a -3% correction.And staying with Japan, they agreed with the US on a 15% "reciprocal" tariff. But Trump issued an executive order to charge 25% in a pique of retribution for slights no-one can quite understand. The Japanese have called them out on it, insisting they honour the negotiated deal. Now Bessent and Lutnick have agreed to not only correct the "administrative mistake" but refund the capricious tariff charges. The Japanese are back with the same deal as the EU has.Taiwan's export performance continues to astound. Exports from the island nation surged +42% in July from a year ago to a record US$56.7 bln, following the +34% increase in June. They were expecting 'only' a +29% rise on this basis. by any measure this strength is quite remarkable. It is all built on electronics. Taiwanese imports were up +21% on the same basis.In the US the appointment of Stephen Miran to fill a temporary vacancy as a board member of the US Federal Reserve adds in a protectionist sceptic to the voting mix. He is no fan of central bank independence. But oddly he has railed against the 'revolving door' of its members moving between Whitehouse/Treasury positions and the Fed governorships. He has now become exhibit A.An global reinsurer SwissRe says 2025 is shaping up to incur weather and climate losses exceeding US$150 bln, after a record $80 bln in the first half. That would make it its costliest year since 2011 (when the NZ and Japanese earthquakes occurred), but by far the costliest for just climate impacts.We should also note an AFR report that French dairy giant Lactalis, is the leading bidder for Fonterra's Mainland business after being granted exclusivity to negotiate for a buyout. They got the nod with a price rumoured to be something less than $4 bln.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.28%, down -1 bp from Saturday and up +6 bps for the week.The price of gold will start today at US$3,398/oz, up US$3 from Saturday. But that has built to a +US$51 gain for the week, or up +1.5%. The uncertainties swirling around the new US tariff ruling are flowing through the New York gold price. Meanwhile the White House called the news 'misinformation' even though their agency had published to tariff ruling.American oil prices have slipped back again, down -50 USc to be just under US$63.50/bbl with the international Brent price down at just over US$66/bbl. These are more than -US$3.50 lower than week-ago levels.The Kiwi dollar is at 59.5 USc and down -10 bps from Saturday, up +½c from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.3, unchanged from Saturday and up +20 bps from this time last week.The bitcoin price started today at US$118,561 and up +1.5% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with we are ending the week with Wall Street not finding much to like about future trade prospects, especially as policy shifts seem to be highly chaotic and involve personal retributions.US initial jobless claims rose last week to +195,000 when seasonal factors indicated it would fall. There are now just over 2 mln people claiming these benefits. This time last year there was just over 1.9 mln, a rise of +99,000.American consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 3.1% in July from 3% in June. This was held back only because of the widespread perception that petrol prices would fall. The median year-ahead expected change in food prices remained unchanged at 5.5%. Looking further ahead inflation expectations in fives rose to 2.9% from 2.6%.Meanwhile Q2 American labour productivity improved in data released today. It rose by 2.4% in the quarter following a revised -1.8% drop in the prior period. Analysts expected a +2% increase. Output increased by 3.7% (vs -0.6% in Q1) and hours worked increased by 1.3% (vs 1.2%).The US agricultural sector used to be a powerhouse export driver. But no more. Data released yesterday shows it has turned into a net importer, a trend that started in 2018 in the first Trump presidency. The first half of 2025 has now recorded its largest deficit on record, mainly on stuttering exports.Meanwhile, American consumer credit rose in June but only modestly. Total consumer credit rose by just +US$7.4 bln in the month, up from a +US$5.1 bln in May. These are minor changes and don't indicate any impending credit stress.Across the Atlantic in a tighter than expected vote, the Bank of England cut its policy rate by -25 bps to 4.0%. They have inflation running at 3.6% with a target of 2%. Five of the nine voting members voted for the cut, four wanted no-change. This was much closer than the 7:2 vote expected.In China, they are not only subsidising trade-in programs to help juice their domestic economy, now they are subsidising interest rates on personal loans. Consumer credit has not been traditionally popular in China, but young people are signing up much more freely. It is a sector that may grow to hold financial stability risks.Standard & Poor's have affirmed China's sovereign credit rating at A+ Stable. China's government gets a AAA rating from its own domestic ratings agencies, but Beijing was pleased anyway with the S&P result.Container freight rates fell -3% last week from the week before to be -58% lower than year-ago levels, although to be fair those were an unusual peak. Outbound from China was again the main weakness although outbound from the US is now showing up as a weakening trade too - and that starts with very low rates anyway. Bulk cargo rates were essentially unchanged over the past week and are now +18% higher than a year ago.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, up +3 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,391/oz, up US$17 from yesterday.American oil prices have slipped back again, down another -US$1 to just on US$64/bbl with the international Brent price down at just over US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at 59.5 USc and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 91.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.3, up +20 bps.The bitcoin price started today at US$116,442 and up +0.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/-1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news in search of short-term riches, the Cook Islands is establishing itself as a haven base for deep sea mining, it be used by both great powers.But first, American mortgage applications rose last week with a modest +3.1% gain from the prior week attributed to a small fall in benchmark mortgage interest rates. It was the stronger +5% refinance activity that drove the modest gain rather than new home purchases.Those benchmark rates may keep falling. There was slightly softer demand for the latest overnight US Treasury 10yr Note auction, but the resulting median yield came in at 4.20%, down from 4.31% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. However the yield is up on more recent levels.Separately, the NY Fed monitoring of global supply chain pressure eased again in July.In Canada, they are seeing residential real estate markets operating like we see here. For example Toronto sales transactions are rising (+13% in July from a year ago), but prices falling (-5.4% on the same basis).The Reserve Bank of India kept its key policy rate at 5.50% during its August meeting, now holding a neutral stance, following a larger-than-expected -50 bps decrease in June. There were no surprises here and the rate remains at its lowest level since August 2022. Easing inflation and the recent US tariff challenges were key considerations.Meanwhile, the US has doubled its tariffs on India to 50% as 'punishment' for buying Russian oil. Interestingly it has boosted Modi's standing at home in India and brought bi-partisan support for him in resisting the US.In China, they have brought in a ¥3,600 yuan (NZ$845) per year child care subsidy for under threes, designed to boost household consumption and ease pressure on family budgets. Encouraging childbirth is probably the core motivation for this subsidy. It is just another is a broadening range of consumer subsidies China is rolling out to support its economy and build domestic demand.EU retail sales volumes impressed in an overnight data release for June. They were up +3.1% on a volume basis, the best increase since September 2024. German gains were particularly strong, up +4.8% on the same volume basis.But new German factory orders again disappointed in June, down -1.0% in volume terms. Although this was twisted by some lumpy 'large' orders. Excluding those, the change is a gain of +0.5% in volume terms. (Large-scale items include aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles).Australia said living costs rose for all type of households in June. Over the past year, all LCIs rose between +1.7% and +3.1%, slowing from annual rises of between +2.4% and +3.5% to the March 2025 quarter. In the South Pacific, the Cook Islands is becoming a renegade state. Its deal with China allows the Chinese to use it as a base for deep sea mining. Now the US is keen to use it in the same way. These great powers see “one of the most promising regions for deep-sea mineral deposits.” These nations are keen to plunder as far away from themselves as possible.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.22%, up +2 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,374/oz, down -US$5 from yesterday.American oil prices have slipped back again, down another -50 USc to just under US$65/bbl with the international Brent price holding at just over US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at 59.4 USc and up +40 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.1, up +20 bps.The bitcoin price started today at US$115,465 and up +1.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the equity markets and the bond markets are flashing quite different signals, and equity markets seem quite out of step with the operating economic data. When these vary, there is usually a reckoning, and that usually (but not always) results in an equity correction.But first up today, the overnight dairy auction brought results similar to what the derivatives market expected, maybe slightly better because of show early season strength in WMP demand and prices. Volumes sold were the highest since October 2024. And helping the tone was the fall in the NZD which boosted the rise in local currency. Overall the event ended up +0.7% in USD and up +1.5% in NZD. The industry will be satisfied the new season is off to a good start.On the butter demand front, there was a noted fall off in demand at these prices - except frim China and Middle East buyers. There is enough there to keep prices elevated, although to be fair the butter price did ease +3.8% at this event.Meanwhile, the widely watched American ISM services PMI unexpectedly fell in July 2025 from June, and the result was lower than expected. The services sector is now nearly stagnant, with seasonal and weather factors having a negative impact on business. A slowdown was most evident in the fall in new orders - activity is still operating faster than new orders are arriving so that is not great for the future. Not slowing are price increases, so all the signs of stagflation here. However, the internationally-benchmarked S&P Global/Markit version told a more upbeat story.US exports fell in June from May but the fall was only minor, and from a year ago there were up +3.3%. US imports fell more sharply in the month to be -1.4% below year-ago levels. But that only results in their trade deficit being back to mif 2024 levels. Or 2023 levels. The needle has moved very little.But the RCM/TIPP sentiment survey rose in July although the move was minor. It mirrored the month's equity markets and this index also hit a 4 year high.American household debt rose by +US$185 bln in the June quarter to a new record high of US$18.4 tln. That is now 60.6% of GDP. The flow of household debt into serious delinquency was mixed across debt types, with credit card and car loans holding steady, student loans continuing to rise, and mortgages edging up slightly.In India, their services PMI tells a booming story. International orders and overall sales rose sharply from the fastest increase in business activity for 11 months. However, price pressures re-accelerated, so this boom comes with inflation consequences. It's a report in sharp contrast to the lackluster American equivalents. "Someone" is quite envious of their success and is threatening sharply higher tariffs.Meanwhile Trump is signaling that their endless 'truce' with China will get another extension.And China delivered a positive data surprise yesterday, with the private Caixin services PMI rising and by more than expected. (Remember the official NBS services PMI eased lower.) The Caixin China General Services PMI rose in July from June's nine-month low with the fastest expansion in the services sector since May 2024, and with new business growing at the strongest pace in a year.That is in contrast to the EU services PMI which remains weak, although it is still expanding.Quarterly June data out today in Australia shows household spending rose at a good rate, up +5.1% from the same month a year ago - and the rate it rose from March was good too. Discretionary spending was strong. Western Australia was the only jurisdiction where spending fell. On a volume basis (after inflation's impact), it is up +0.7%.Join us at 10:45am for the New Zealand labour market report for June, although it might just confirm the tough operating environment we are in.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.20%, up +1 bp from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,379/oz, up +US$7 from yesterday.American oil prices have slipped back again, down another -US$1 to just under US$65.50/bbl with the international Brent price just over US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at 59 USc and little-changed from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 66.9, down -10 bps.The bitcoin price started today at US$113,625 and down -1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/-1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news tough economic news keeps coming, even during this lazy August vacation period in the northern hemisphere.First, in the US factory orders were expected to retreat in June, consistent with the labour market and PMI signals - and they did. They were down -4.8% from May, although they are still up +6.6% from a year ago. The June falls were largely driven by a -22% plunge in transportation equipment orders. This same data confirmed the earlier durable goods order decrease in June of -9.4%.We are awaiting important services PMIs for July and they are expected to be much better than those for their factory sector.American economic uncertainty is now well embedded in consumer behaviour. Some brands are really suffering, and causing large writedowns.Meanwhile, American vehicle sales rose in July to an annualised rate of 16.4 mln, slightly more than expected because they got a boost ahead of expected price increases from the August 1 tariff-taxes. But the boost was relatively minor, just +3.6% ahead of the same level in July 2024.In China, parts of the country are battling heavier-than-usual rainfall. And that includes Beijing itself, a city of 22 mln. Dozens of people have died in flooding already. They are expecting 200 mm of rain to fall over the next 24 hours, on top of what they have had which created their emergency. Beijing's normal annual rainfall is 600 mm.In Australia, the Melbourne Institute's inflation gauge survey result brought an unwelcome surprise. It surged +0.9% in July, the steepest rise since December 2023 and a sharp rebound from June's modest +0.1% increase. The RBA is unlikely to be impressed because even if inflation is within range it seems to be testing the upper end of that range and a rate cut could well push it up out-of-range. Still, financial markets are pricing in a full -25 bps cut for Tuesday, August 12 when the RBA next meets. And they have priced in two more by the end of 2025. At this time, given inflation is proving harder to lick, that seems unlikely. And in turn there could be many disappointed market traders - and mortgage holders - as the year unfolds.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.19%, down -3 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,372/oz, up +US$10 from yesterday.American oil prices have slipped back again, down -US$1 to just under US$66.50/bbl with the international Brent price just over US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at 59 USc and down -20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -10 bps at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67, down -10 bps as well.The bitcoin price started today at US$115,217 and up +0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low again at just under +/-0.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news US President Trump is "making progress" is bending independent agencies (BLS, the US Fed) to respond to what is best for him, rather than the US economy.But the week ahead will all be focused locally on Wednesdays Household Labour Force survey results for July. Our jobless rate is expected to rise to 5.3% from 5.1% in June (and May). That would make it its highest since 2016 and exceeding anything we had in the pandemic period.Elsewhere the week will feature a raft of PMI and factory order releases. Plus, China will release key trade and inflation data.But the big economic driver for the week will be market reactions to Trump's tariff-war moves and his drive to bend both the Fed and the economic data agencies in the US to show fealty to him and avoid any negative reports. On Friday they sensed all this isn't good for the US economy and turned sharply risk averse even though corporate earnings reports have stayed positive.And that was because of Trump's response to official data he didn't like. He moved to fire the head of the data agency who reported it.Then a voting Fed official resigned, giving him a chance to twist more independence out of this crucial institution.The release of the July US labour market report showed the headline jobs gain was only +73,000 when +110,000 was expected. But worse, the June data was revised sharply lower to just +14,000 from the original +147,000. Their jobless rate edged higher to 4.2%. The number of people unemployed for at least 27 weeks has topped 1.8 mln now, the highest since the pandemic. Wage growth for the low-paid was unusually weak. This is a huge miss and there were sharp financial market reactions.Those are the seasonally adjusted numbers. The actual numbers are much worse, down -1,066,000 in July from June. To be fair much of that actual shrinkage is seasonal, but at 159.3 mln people employed, that is lower than in November 2024 when Trump won office.But with this July stumble in their labour market, it will be no surprise to know that the ISM factory PMI shows the same sharp retreat. In June this PMI was contracting with a 49.0 index level. It was expected to improve to a smaller contraction of 49.5. (An index level of 50 is the fulcrum between expansion and contraction.) But it went the other way, deepening its contraction to 48.0. Driving the retreat were new orders and order backlogs contracting, along with input costs increasing and exports falling. Overall, this is reporting their factory sector is contracting faster. (The internationally benchmarked S&P Global/Markit factory PMI version also reported a sharp drop info contraction in July, also largely on stagnating new order levels.)In China, like the official China factory PMIs had signaled, the independent Caixin PMI also signaled that their factory sector went backwards in July too. The Caixin survey isn't as negative as the official survey, but it now shows the overall sector in contraction. The Caixin survey tends to account better for mid-sized private manufacturers whereas the official survey includes the very large state-owned enterprises.China recognises the need to do more to stimulate internal consumption, and they are now committed to using subsidies as a key tool. Essentially they are subsidising trade-in prices to generate sales of new items. The target is to raise this subsidy level to ¥300 bln in 2025. On Friday they announced another ¥69 bln in ultra-long special treasury bonds will be issued for this purpose, the fourth tranche in the program.Another policy action announced on Friday involves their war on "involution", which they take to mean excessive or irresponsible competition involving a general race to the bottom. It was a feature of their housing crisis, and is a big worry for their car manufacturing industry. Top-down pressure to rein in this sort of behaviour is intense now. In fact, BYD is now indicating their production levels will be lower in future.However in Japan, Toyota has told suppliers that it aims to boost 2025 global production to about 10 million vehicles, underpinned by strong sales of hybrids despite concerns over the impact of American tariffs. (In the US, carmaker Ford is noting that tariffs are not helping them.)In Singapore, the latest PMI readings painted a mixed manufacturing outlook with the electronics sector in continued expansion whereas the overall manufacturing sector reverted to a marginal contraction. Declining now order levels caused the shift.In India, the growth of factory orders and production strengthened in July, driving their factory PMI up to an impressive 59.1, although that was a touch less than the result expected. Indian factories are easily the star of the show on a global basis.The EU released its July inflation data on Friday, and there were no surprises there with inflation stable at 2.0% in the Euro area. The overall level is still being restrained by falls in energy costs.Australian producer prices rose 3.4% over the past year to June, down from a 3.7% rate in the year to March, and down from a 4.8% rate in the year to June 2024. Cost pressures are still high, but they are easing, even if slowly.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.22%, up +1 bps from Saturday, down -18 bps for the week.The price of gold will start today at US$3,362/oz, up +US$14 from Saturday.American oil prices have slipped back again, now just over US$67/bbl with the international Brent price holding at US$69.50/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$65 and US$68.50/bbl. OPEC has agreed a big increase in oil production. And we should probably note another fall in North American oil rigs in action, now down to their lowest level since September 2021.The Kiwi dollar is at 59.2 USc and up +20 bps from Saturday but down nearly -1c from a week ago. Over all of July the fall was -180 bps. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -40 bps at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.1, unchanged from Saturday, down -60 bps for the weekThe bitcoin price started today at US$114,109 and up +0.8% from this time Saturday, but down -2.0% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news today is the day the US has promised to levy arbitrary tariffs but still no word about how Australia and New Zealand will fare. It's not the end of August 1 until later tomorrow in the US. In the meantime, Mexico has been the latest country to be granted a 90 day extension.Meanwhile, initial US jobless claims fell to 193,100 in the fourth week of July, just marginally more than seasonal factors would have accounted for. There are now 2.016 mln people on these benefits, +82,000 more than the 1.934 mln in the same week a year ago.US-based employers announced 62,075 job cuts in July, up +29% from June's 47,999 and up +140% from 25,885 announced in the same month last year. July's job cuts were also well above average for a July month since the pandemic.The US PCE price index rose +0.3% in June from May, the largest increase in four months, following an upwardly revised +0.2% gain in May. Prices for goods were up +0.4%, and prices for services rose +0.2%. The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy, also went up +0.3%, also its strongest monthly gain in four months. Year on year, the PCE was up +2.6%, the core PCE up +2.8%. With more broad tariffs ahead, plus firms now far less willing to absorb these burdens, the future track of US inflation looks like it has only upside.Personal disposable incomes rose +1.7% from June a year ago in the US, personal spending was up +2.1%.In the industrial heartland, the Chicago PMI contracted much less in July, after a good rise in new order levels. But it is still contracting, only slower.Canada may be being disrespected by its bully southern neighbour via tariff threats and economic pressure, but its economy is showing remarkable resilience. In May, their GDP eased just -0.1% while in June it rose +0.1%. This is a far better result for them than they may have expected given the taunts and penalties they have had to absorb. Unlike Mexico, they aren't getting any delay in US tariff changes.As expected, the Bank of Japan held its policy rate unchanged yesterday at 0.5%. The decision was unanimous, reflecting the central bank's cautious approach to policy normalisation.Japanese industrial production surged in June, and in a quite unexpected way. Year-on-year it was up +4.0%, month-on-month up +1.7%. A small retreat was expected.The official July PMIs for China were released yesterday, showing their factory sector contracting at a faster rate and their service sector expansion all but evaporating. These results are not disastrous, but they will worry Beijing all the same. The vibrancy they recently re-found isn't lasting.There were some very positive Australian retail trade data released yesterday. And oddly, this is the final data released for retail sales as they shift to their "Monthly household spending indicator" series. The final data for retail trade brought a +4.9% year-on-year burst in value terms, +1.5% in volume terms. These levels were far better than any analyst was expecting. The contrast with New Zealand is rather stark.There was a marked slowing in the growth of air travel in June, up +2.6% in June and half the +5.1% rise in the same month a year ago. The North American market was flat, but the Asia Pacific international market rose +7.2% and an outsized gain.The June air cargo market expanded little overall, up +0.8% from a year ago. But that was because of a sharp retreat in cargo volumes in North America (down -8.3% for domestic cargoes, down -6.1% in international cargoes). Elsewhere international cargo volumes rose +1.6% and Asia Pacific volumes were up +8.3%.Container freight rates were little changed last week (-1%) with outbound rates from China the weakest segment. From a year ago these rates are now -56% lower although to be fair they were unusually high a year ago on Red Sea security problems. Bulk freight rates fell -5.3% over past week from the prior week to be +13% higher than year-ago levels.It's probably worth noting that after the large fall in the copper price we noted yesterday, there has been no bounce - it is still falling.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.36%, down -1 bp from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,294/oz, up +US$17 from yesterday.American oil prices have slipped back -US$1.50 at just on US$69/bbl with the international Brent price is now at just on US$71.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar was at 58.9 USc and and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 91.7 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.4, up +20 bps from yesterday helped by a rise against the yen which fell back after their central bank meeting.The bitcoin price started today at US$117,775 and essentially unchanged again (+US$9) from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/-1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news a no-change Fed has brought sharp market reactions, bolstered by an odd tariff twist.As expected, the US central bank left its key policy rates unchanged at the 4.25%–4.50% target range for a fifth consecutive meeting. They see the data pointing to 'a moderation in economic activity' during the first half of the year, contrasting with earlier assessments that growth was proceeding 'at a solid pace'. They noted that the unemployment rate remains low while inflation remains elevated, and uncertainty about the economic outlook persists. The vote was 9-2 with both dissenters wanting a lower rate and both wanting to be chosen by Trump to replace Powell.Markets are still digesting the Fed signals, but immediately after the US dollar rose although not significantly, the UST 10yr yield was little-changed initially then rose but only slightly, and the S&P500 rose but then equally quickly gave that bump up to now be lower. Gold kept falling. Bitcoin yawned, holding in the unchanged level it has had for the past three weeks. But then it woke up and fell out of that range, down -1.3%.Although US home loan interest rates were unchanged last week, mortgage applications fell, both for refinancing and for new purchases. And the June pending home sales report also out today paints a worrying picture for their housing sector with sales -2.8% lower from a year ago. Eight of the last twelve months have recorded year-on-year decreases.The July labour market report will be released on Saturday (NZT) and is expected to record a modest +110,000 jobs growth. Today the precursor ADP Employment Report was released suggesting private payrolls grew +104,000. (This ADP report is a good tracker of the non-farm payrolls report over the longer term, but not so reliable for any current month.)The first look at the Q2-2025 US GDP growth rate is out, showing a +3.0% rise, and better than the expected +2.4% result. But almost all of this is due to rising imports (+5%). Consumer spending contributed less than +1%. Investment activity was -3% negative in this result. Public spending and exports both made almost zero contribution. Although +3% is 'good' it is an unhealthy twist although that may not last. Of more concern is the dive in investment.North of the border, the Canadian central bank also reviewed its monetary policy position overnight, and it too held its rate unchanged at 2.75%.In the EU, the July sentiment surveys were out for the bloc and while they 'improved' in fact they remain in their long term range. So essentially, no change.In Singapore, their central bank equivalent, the Monetary Authority of Singapore kept its policy stance unchanged in yesterday's update.In Australia, and led by a fall in services inflation, overall CPI inflation dropped to 2.1% in Q2 2025 from 2.4% in the prior two periods, marking its lowest figure since Q1 2021 and below forecasts of 2.2%. June inflation alone was only +1.9% above year ago levels. Today's data removes any awkwardness posed by inflation remaining too high for the RBA and they are now very much more likely to cut by -25 bps on August 12 to 3.60%.On the tariff-war front, the US has imposed a 50% tariff on copper imported into the US - but then made a bewildering exception, for refined copper. Traders had been stockpiling copper ahead of this decision but weren't expecting the exception. So there is far more refined copper in the US than they need at a cost they don't need. It has caused havoc in the copper price overnight with an immediate -20% drop.The US imposed a 25% tariff on imports from India.Talks with China have been inconclusive in Stockholm and will no doubt drag on unresolved over the '90 day extension' period. China will count that as a win.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.37%, up +4 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,277/oz, down -US$50 from yesterday with most of it after the US Fed decision.American oil prices have risen another +US$1.50 at just under US$70.50/bbl with the international Brent price is now at just on US$73.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar was at 59.2 USc and down -30 bps from yesterday pre the Fed. Then it fell another -30 bps to 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.2, down another -30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price started today at US$117,766 and essentially unchanged again (+US$51) from this time yesterday. But after the US Fed decision, it took a -1.3% tumble. Volatility over the past 24 hours rose to +/-1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the IMF says global growth is projected at 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, an upward revision from the April 2025 World Economic Outlook. This reflects front-loading ahead of tariffs, lower effective tariff rates, better financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in some major jurisdictions.But first, the overnight GDT Pulse dairy prices came in without the signaled drop in WMP prices by the derivatives market. In fact it rose +1% from the prior event. The SMP price however fell -1%. So in fact little net movement.And the Stockholm US-China tariff negotiations are to be extended, essentially ignoring the US imposed August 1 deadline. And the US-EU 'deal' wasn't 'done' as the Whitehouse claimed. More 'horse-trading' is being scheduled.The growth steam is slowly leaking from the Redbook retail index, up +4.9% last week from this time last year. Most of this will be goods inflation.US exports rose +3.4% in June from a year ago whereas US imports were up +0.3% on the same basis. That reduced their merchandise trade deficit to -US$87 bln and back to about where it was at the start of 2024. Without the +11% rise in aircraft exports there would have been little improvement.The number of job openings in the US fell by -275,000 from May to 7.4 mln in June, below market expectations of 7.55 mln. Their quit rate fell to a six month low. Expectations for the July non-farm payrolls are pretty modest at +110,000, taking them back to early 2025 levels.The latest Conference Board survey of consumer sentiment, for July, was little changed. But almost 19% of those surveyed indicated that jobs were hard to get in July, up from 14.5% in January. This group thought inflation was running at 5.8% currently, and is likely to go higher.There was a very well supported US Treasury bond auction overnight, for their seven year Note. But investors still wanted higher yields with the median coming in at 4.06%, up from 3.96% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.But expect rising pressure from the demand side. The US Treasury said during the July - September 2025 quarter, they expect to borrow US$1.007 tln in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of US$850 bln - which may be optimistic. This new borrowing estimate is +US$453 bln higher than they announced in April so it is rising faster than even they expected, primarily due to the lower beginning-of-quarter cash balance and projected lower net cash flows.In Europe, the latest ECB survey of inflation expectations has them well contained, coming in at 2.6% for the year ahead, the lowest in four months. Policymakers there are not battling high inflation expectations.Later today, Australia will release its Q2 CPI inflation rate, expected to be 2.2% and down from the 2.4% in Q1-2025.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.33%, down -9 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,327/oz, up +US$18 from yesterday.American oil prices have risen +US$2.50 at just under US$69/bbl with the international Brent price is now at just over US$72/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.6 USc and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 51.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.5, down another -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,725 and essentially unchanged (+US$61) from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained low at just on +/-0.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with talks are underway in Stockholm between the US and China over a trade/tariff deal. Prospects are not high.And the recent EU-US deal has the makings of unravelling. Both France and Germany are unhappy about the outcome, made worse by the US claiming verbally pharmaceuticals have been excluded when the EU negotiators said they were not excluded from the 15% written deal.The big casualty in all of these deals, including the Japanese one, is trust in the US. Smartarse public commenting by the US president - even some of his advisers - means the deals struck are unlikely to be respected by the US or trusted by the others. The result isn't "a deal", it is a fluid mess.New Zealand's situation in all this will be a footnote, probably sometime on Saturday.In the US, the Dallas Fed's factory survey improved sharply in July, but this was all about higher production. New orders are still contracting, even if at a slower rate. Elevated input price pressures continued in July. Improved sentiment is driving the raised output even in the absence of a pickup in new orders.Financial market eyes are now turning to Thursday's (NZT) US Federal Reserve meeting and decisions. Despite the overt Whitehouse pressure, financial market pricing shows virtually no-one is pricing in a rate cut.In Canada, wholesale sales came in better than expected, up +0.7% in June from May when a -0.2% retreat was anticipated. But despite that good recent gain, they will still be lower than in June 2024.Across the Pacific, from 2022 to 2024, Taiwanese consumer confidence rose. But since October 2024 it has been falling. However the July survey rose, the first break in the recent down-trend. It wasn't a big move from June, but they will take it.In China, they are taking something they don't want. Foreign direct investment recorded another net outflow in June, and a worse one than the highly unusual April net outflow. The reasonable start to 2025 is being undone faster now. In the six months to June they have had a net inflow of US$42.3 bln. In 2024 they had more than that in just the first three months and even that was much weaker than in 2023 (US$98 bln) or 2022 (US$112 bln). Fleeing investors isn't a good look for China.Indian industrial production expanded a rather weak +1.5% in June from a year ago, held back by surprisingly weak mining (coal) production.. In their factories however, the story is much better with manufacturing production us +3.9% from a year ago, a better rise than in May although less than the +4.5% expected.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.42%, up +3 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,309/oz, down -US$27 from yesterday.American oil prices have risen +US$1.50 at just on US$66.50/bbl with the international Brent price is now at just under US$70/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.7 USc and down -½c from yesterday and back to where it was a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 51.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.6, down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,664 and down -1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained low at just on +/-0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news - despite the US tariff news flooding the zone - the rest of the world economy is find a way to carry on.But first we should note that a 15% tariff deal seems to have been concluded between the EU and the US but one that excludes drugs and aluminium. It looks very like the Japanese deal. And the tariff tussle between China and the US looks like it has been extended another 90 days. The pressure will be on European and Japanese companies to become 15% more efficient, but US companies will relax, allowed to be 15% less efficient in their home markets. In the intermediate term this won't be good for global US competitiveness.In a look ahead this coming week, we will get our usual New Zealand monthly business and consumer sentiment survey updates. And our big end-of-month data dump from the RBNZ accentuated because it is end of quarter data. In Australia, it will be all about retail trade and inflation metrics.And Wall Street will be very busy with many more large companies releasing earnings.But the big interest rate influence will be from the central bank decisions from the US (no change expected), Japan (no change), and Canada (also no change). In all three cases the real interest will be on their commentary.Underlying all this will be July PMIs from most major economies, plus more Q2 GDP data, and many inflation updates.Over the weekend China released industrial profits data to June. They reported another slide, down -4.3% from June a year ago, the second straight monthly decline, amid persistent deflation pressures and growing trade uncertainty. State-owned enterprises experienced steeper losses while profit growth in the private sector slowed markedly. Profit gains were recorded in many sectors but one interesting one was in agriculture where profits were up more than +20%.In Russia, and as expected, they cut their policy rate by -200 bps to 18%. They signaled another cut is likely in 2025. They see disinflation on the rise, and household consumption lower. Part of that is due to the size of the diaspora of working aged men trying to avoid the death trap of the attempted invasion of Ukraine.In Europe, the ECB's survey of professional forecasters shows they don't expect much change in the coming year with things constrained by trade questions. They see inflation easing slightly, mainly due to the tariff effects, but GDP growth slightly stronger in the short term.The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany edged up in July from June, to the highest level since May 2024. But the report was still full of cautious sentiment.In the US and as expected durable goods orders fell back in June after the May spike. Apart from the aircraft and defense sectors, it remained pretty ho-hum. New orders rose just +0.1%. Non-defense non-aircraft orders for capital goods fell when a rise was anticipated.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.39%, unchanged from Saturday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,336/oz, down -US$2 from Saturday.American oil prices have stayed softish at just on US$65/bbl with the international Brent price is still at just under US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60.2 USc and up +10 bps from Saturday and up almost +½c from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are stable at 51.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.7, unchanged from Saturday but up +20 bps from a week ago.The bitcoin price starts today at US$119,210 and up +2.4% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news there are more tariff-deals being done, of the free trade type, but just not with the US and their mutually punitive style.In the US, jobless claims dipped last week, mainly on seasonal factors. There are now 2,016,000 people on these benefits, +5.3% more than the 1,914,000 on them this time last year.Sales of new single-family homes rose marginally in June from May's seven-month low to be well below what market expected. The number of unsold homes on the market rose to 511,000, the highest since October 2007 and now almost ten months of supply at the current sales pace.The July US S&P Markit factory PMI fell back into contraction which was very unexpected because a rise in the expansion was expected. However, this was masked by a strong rise in their service economy in July.The Kansas City Fed factory survey slipped back into contraction in July after its rare expansion in June. They reported increased factory activity but new order growth was weak and order backlogs fell sharply.In Canada, their advance estimate of retail sales suggests that sales increased +1.6% in June. That more than makes up for the -1.1% fall in May and is much better than the -0.3% fall expected.Meanwhile in Japan, the same S&P Global/Markit factory PMI unexpectedly contracted in July from June's 13-month high but minimal expansion. A small rise was expected.In India, they are starting to see rising international demand in their factory sector, and this pushed up their July factory PMI to a strong expansion.And India has signed a free trade deal with the UK, one touted to bring NZ$10 bln in mutual benefits.Also expected soon is a China-EU trade deal.In Europe, the eurozone PMI for July reported a further increase in business activity during the month, with the pace of expansion quickening to the fastest for almost a year amid a stabilisation of new orders. Output growth was at an 11 month high for them. Cost inflation is easing.Meanwhile, as expected the ECB rate review decision delivered no change. This effectively marks the end of its current easing cycle after eight cuts over the past year that brought borrowing costs to their lowest levels since November 2022. And don't forget, they remain in a tightening phase because they no longer reinvest maturing bonds issued during the pandemic emergency.In Australia, the S&P Global/Markit factory PMI expanded slightly faster in July, on the back of the sharpest overall rise in new business in over three years. This was despite export orders still contracting. The same report shows price pressures intensified, hinting at higher inflation in Australia in the coming months.And staying in Australia, research by the RBA shows that international students play a significant role in the Australian economy. They contribute to demand through their spending on goods and services and are an important source of labour for some Australian businesses. When there are large swings in international student numbers or when the economy has little spare capacity, this means that changing international student numbers can affect macroeconomic outcomes, particularly in sectors of the economy where supply cannot respond quickly. The rapid growth in international student numbers post-pandemic likely contributed to high inflation over this period, but was not a major driver. But they do push up rents.Container freight rates dropped another -3% last week to be -57% lower than year-ago levels, although to be fair the year-ago levels were unusually high. Outbound rates from China to the US are the weakest routes at present. But bulk cargo rates rose another +11% over the past week to be +13% higher than year-ago levelsThe UST 10yr yield is now at 4.41%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,369/oz, down -US$18 from yesterday.American oil prices are marginally firmer at just under US$65.50/bbl but the international Brent price is still at just on US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60.4 USc and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we have dipped -10 bps to 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 51.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.8, up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,232 and up +1.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

The Brothers Krynn return to share their fan fiction, The Kenobi Timeline. Inspired by the Legends novel, Secrets of the Jedi, the story follows the what-if scenario of Obi-Wan and Obi-Wan's lover, Siri secretly having a child. From there events unfold unexpectedly, especially with lesser-known companions of Anakin and Obi-Wan who are the focus of the narrative. Each of these characters has a fully fleshed-out backstory with motivations that weave into but never contradict the events of the Prequels. As you listen along, you can refer to the character glossary provided by the Brothers Krynn: Tahlon Kenobi: son of Obi-Wan Kenobi and Siri Tachi (Kenobi), Wields a double-sided Blue lightsaber, his style is Form IV (Ataru variant) Talanis Salazzar: Mandalorian warrior woman, 5 years older than Tahlon. Number one Mandalorian bounty-hunter after Jango Fett Darael Feran: Trandoshan Jedi Master, Wields double-sided Green lightsaber, his style is Form III (Soresu variant), Melirah Stardust's master before leaving the order to join the Jedi, who chose to leave to work with Dooku in the CIS Melirah Stardust: A young Jedi, same age as Anakini with Red hair, born on Tattooine to a Moisture Farmer, she is hot-headed, yet dreams of being a healer. She was Darael Feran's padawan. She is the most gifted seer of her generation. Her style is Form VI (Jar'Kai) (Form IV Ataru Variant) Her right-handed lightsaber is yellow, her left-handed one is blue Mi'kraan Darklighter: A young Jedi, born on the same day, same hour as Melirah, though the two are not related, they share a bond with each other. She is tall and blonde haired, statuesque, the more beautiful of the two. A gentle soul who specializes in diplomacy and teaching younglings. She dislikes violence in all its forms, and has requested to resign her military position, but has been refused. A favourite of Yoda. Her style is Form VI (Jar'Kai) (Form III Soresu variant) Her right-hand lightsaber is Green, her left-hand is Yellow Fergus Feld: One year older than Anakin, a personality like Sturm Brightblade (Dragonlance), is fanatically loyal to the order, and a good friend of Tahlon. He does not trust Anakin and thinks he will turn to the darkside, and in extension dislikes Obi-Wan, a favourite of Yoda, who was abused by his master, Yaduu. His lightsaber style is Form V, and Form VII (Shien/Djem-So and Juyo) his lightsaber colour is blue Grrwyan: A wookie Jedi Tahlon grew up with. He dislikes Tahlon. His style is Form V (Shien/Djem-So) His lightsaber colour is Blue Ivec'leba: A twi'lek initiate Tahlon grew up with, she was sold into slavery, and liberated by Millennia Far'lin. She dies in Tahlon's arms when he is an initiate Jedi Master Chirus: A half-Blind Solustan jedi, who exposed his previous padawan's affair with another jedi, which led her to commit suicide, which traumatized. He later becomes Tahlon's master, and is three years older than Dooku. He dies on Geonosis. His apprentice was a young woman by the name of Yasmina Shen. Her former lover fled with her child to the outer rim, and founded a Jedi cult which her widow and son will end up fighting in the clone wars on the side of the Republic, as Chirus made peace with him three years before he died. Chirus' style is Form VI (Niiman) His colour is Green. Millennia Farland: The daughter of a deceased freedom fighter of Ryloth, Millennia picked up his torch and his movement to liberate all the Twi'leks from the Hutts and the Exchange, she has since become the Senator of Renkloth. (We set the planet in the neighbouring star system next to Ryloth.) She is a firebrand, who is friends of Tahlon, hates the Hutts and consistently pushes for Republican interference in twi'lek affairs, and has become disillusioned with the Senate. She is also given a military commission for the Grand Army of the Republic. Alpha Squad: Tahlon's personal Commando unit. They consist of RC-1515 “Quinze” (Leader), RC-9888 “Zuko” (Demolitions), RC-0109 “Nate” (Weapons) and RC-2898 “Wyatt” (Tech Specialist) RC-1515 “Quinze”: The leader of Alpha Squad, he has a sardonic sense of humour, similar to that of Qui-Gon Jinn. He is also strict, and at times inflexible, and is very shy around beautiful women. He is force sensitive. RC-9888 “Zuko”: The Demolitions expert of Alpha Squad, he is argumentative, severe, who complains a lot, and has a bit of a temper. He is always arguing and fighting with Nate, and yet the two consider each other almost twins. RC-0109 “Nate”: The weapons expert: He is chatty, gabby, cheerful and friendly. Nate loves heavy-grade weaponry. He considers his voice a gift from the force. He also loves show tunes and pretty women. RC-2898 “Wyatt”: The Tech specialist, he is sarcastic, a little vain about his appearance, he has a superiority complex in regards to his IQ, and is the quiet member of the team, even as he considers himself a connoisseur of fine arts and pop stars. ARC-Commander 1139 “Hale”: Commander of the 339th Legion, he serves as Mi'kraan's clone commander. Where she dislikes violence, he revels in it. He is cold and calculating, and a General of the highest quality. He was one of the top graduates from Kamino in strategy and tactics. ARC-Commander 3615 “Boom”: Commander of the 431th Legion. Tahlon's clone commander, his solution to every problem is explosives, bombardment, and even more explosives. He is very good friends with Nate and Zuko. He is fairly cheerful by nature. ARC-Commander 1238 “Krath”: Commander of the 436th Legion. One of the most bloodthirsty clone commanders, and is absolutely ruthless. He believes in no mercy, and has a belief system akin to Canderous Ordo, except he scorns the disloyal and self-serving Mandalorians, and thinks that Clones are superior to them, as he does the Jedi, whom he holds in high regard. He is Melirah's clone commander. ARC-Commander 1138 “Crusher”: Commander of the 189th Legion. Another ruthless clone commander with a cold and impatient side, who believes people have to win his respect, as he hates incompetence, and has no patience for fools. He is the finest clone commander in the galaxy. He serves under Fergus, and has been lauded by Mace Windu. CT-1159 Sergeant “Muln”: A rambunctious, duty-obsessed starfighter pilot in the Republic Navy, he serves under Melirah, and is a quick shot, and impulsive pilot. He is named after Garen Muln, the finest pilot in the galaxy. Darin Pol: A Kel-Dor Martial Artist and security officer who volunteers for the navy, and is put in Melirah's Legion. will continuously reference Justice. He is wise, and the sworn brother of Sergeant Muln Darth Malignus: A Sith Knight trained by a Sith cult that swears itself to Count Dooku and the CIS, he is the top warrior of the cult, and is from the planet Sorrus. His lightsaber is the sith variant of Form VI (Jar'Kai, Form V Shien/Djem-So variant,) He is very much inspired by Dinobot from Beast Wars.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of more big-country tariff negotiation updates.But first, US mortgage applications were little-changed last week as their benchmark 30 year mortgage rate rose.Meanwhile, American home resales fell in June from May to an annualised rate of under 4 mln and down -4.4% from June 2024. This was largely driven by declining sales of single family homes. But median prices inched up, now at US$435,300 (NZ$720,000). High mortgage rates are getting the blame.There was another US Treasury bond auction overnight, this one for their 20 year maturity. It was well supported with a median yield of 4.89%. That was little different to the 4.88% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.The US has said it has agreed a 15% tariff deal with Japan (a notable level lower than the arbitrary 25% previously imposed). The main thing Japan had to do was agree to buy things (like aircraft) that would probably have bought from the US anyway. But it also supposedly requires Japan to water down its standards for rice imports and open their markets to US cars. Both of those requirements show a distinctly naive understanding of Japan. Very likely they will drive an anti-US sentiment by consumers there, mirroring what is happening in Canada. Japanese investors loved the deal - for Japan. boosting the Nikkei225 +2.2% at its market opening yesterday and ending the day up +3.5%.The Japanese bond market - an enormous beast - reacted with Japan's 10-year government bond yield surging nearly +10 bp to around 1.60% approaching its highest level since 2008.In South Korea, the glow after resolving its presidential issues has seen its Consumer Sentiment Index rise in July from June, the fourth consecutive monthly gain and the highest reading since January 2018. The improvement reflects growing optimism fueled by the newly elected government and expectations for economic stimulus.Taiwanese industrial production continues to expand aggressively, up another +18% in June from a year ago, no surprise given the strong order inflows we reported earlier this week. But Taiwanese retail sales are nowhere near as positive, actually.In Europe, there is growing optimism some sort of tariff deal with the US is imminent. The US-Japan deal is being seen as a benchmark, and the optimism is fuel by the early judgement that Japan will come out on top in that one.In Australia, economic growth momentum is leaking away. At least, that is what the Westpac-Melbourne Institute leading indicator data shows. For them, the main drag coming from commodity prices, consumer and business sentiment, and total hours worked.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.39%, up +5 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3,387/oz, down -US$40 from yesterday.American oil prices are holding at just over US$65/bbl but the international Brent price is still at just under US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60.4 USc and up +40 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +25 bps at 51.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.7, up +20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,867 and down -1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest, at just under +/-1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Devori does a war crime against Jeff and makes him watch what surely is the worst film ever watched on this pod.Host segments: existential dread not found; Taylor Lautner is wasted in this one; dying by misadventure vs. murder-bear; it's just shirts and skins; the Twilight to T. Swizzle pipeline.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news precious metals prices are having a moment - in US dollars at least, largely because the US dollar is extending its retreat. The same impact is affecting commodities like copper. Prices are rising in the US as a consequence of tariff-taxes which are pushing down the value of the greenback.But first, the dairy Pulse auction for SMP and WMP brought better results than the futures markets expected. SMP was up +1.7% and slightly better than the +1.5% expected. But the big mover was WMP which rose +1.5% when a -4% retreat was expected. The continuation of better prices will be something of a quiet relief in this industry.In the US. the retail impulse continued to expand last week, up +5.1% from a year ago. But the suspicion lingers that much of this is the inclusion of tariff taxes, despite what the CPI indicates.And those tariff taxes hurt the results in the latest Richmond Fed factory survey. This was their worst result in ten months and was led by a sharp retreat in new orders. Input cost growth stayed up.The cost of those tariff-taxes on US companies was on full display in US earnings reports. For Stellantis (Chrysler) it was US$300 mln, for GM US$1 bln. Both ate away at reported profits significantly. It is hard to see these type of companies absorbing costs like this for much longer.Across the Pacific, Taiwanese export orders continued their outstanding growth, up almost another +-25% in June from the same month in 2024 which itself led year-ago levels. It is hugely impressive and continues a very strong 2025 monthly set. It is their electronics industry leading the way.Sentiment in Japan bounced back yesterday as it became a clearer bet that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is expected to remain in office despite the embarrassing performance of his party at the recent upper house elections. But holding on, he will be a damaged leader. The upstart ‘Japanese First' Sanseito party has emerged as powerful force after these elections, and that was despite a 'secret' Russian campaign to support them (and destabilise Japan) that was exposed before voting.In the Europe, the ECB's latest credit survey fund a twist towards housing lending there. While credit standards for company loans remained broadly unchanged, credit standards tightened slightly for housing loans and more markedly for consumer credit. But this was because housing loan demand continued to increase strongly, while demand for company loans remained weak.In Australia, the vultures are out targeting vulnerable borrowers who are debt stressed. It has ASIC worried and they have launched a review into the debt management and credit repair sector in an effort to protect those experiencing financial hardship. Expect the Commerce Commission here to assess whether it needs to do similar work.Staying in Australia, the RBA released the minutes of its July 8 meeting and they revealed little new. They left its cash rate steady at 3.85% at this meeting, defying market forecasts for a -25 bps cut. The move was passed by majority vote, six in favour and three against. These minutes were full of "wait and see" sentiment, "data dependent" notes. Part of the waiting-to-see is because they doubt Trump will actually do what he threatens. They buy the TACO view apparently.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.34%, down -3 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3,427/oz, up another +US$34 from yesterday. And that almost matched its record high on April 21.And the silver price has pushed on up over US$39/oz It isn't yet threatening its 2011 peaks (US$48) but the recent climb has some people quite excited.American oil prices are -US$2 softer at just on US$65/bbl but the international Brent price is only down -50 USc at just under US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60 USc and up +25 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.5, up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$119,198 and up +1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest, at just under +/-1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news China is having second thoughts about how some industries are operating with their super-competitive impulses.But first, a widely followed American leading index tracker weakened in June. The US Conference Board's LEIcontinued its fall which started in mid 2022 and has picked up its pace of decline somewhat. The LEI fell by -2.8% over the first half of 2025, a substantially faster rate of decline than the -1.3% contraction over the second half of 2024. For a second month in a row, the stock price rally was the main support of the LEI. But this was not enough to offset still very low consumer expectations, weak new orders in manufacturing, and a third consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance.And a new attack vector on the US Fed by their Treasury Secretary probably won't help.But investors are happy, pushing the S&P500 up to a new record high, emboldened by tariff protections that will bring short-term gains.North of the border. Canadian producer prices were expected to fall in June continuing an easing that started in February. However they rose moderately to be +1.7% higher than a year ago. But the rise seemed to be caused by a jump in the precious metals corner of this index rather than more generally. So the impact isn't significant.More generally in Canada's economy, a central bank survey shows that tariffs and related uncertainty, along with spillover effects on the Canadian and global economies, continue to have major impacts on businesses' outlooks. However, the worst-case scenarios that firms envisioned last quarter are now seen as less likely to occur.A parallel survey of Canadian consumers revealed a concerned public, one that saw a tough future. But the US copped almost all the blame, and Canadians said they are prioritising local purchases now at the expense of US sourced goods and services. Travel to the US is off their agenda.Across the Pacific, the People's Bank of China kept key Loan Prime Rates (LPR) at record lows during the July fixing yesterday, as was expected. The economic resilience in the Chinese economy means they are keeping their powder dry, even though American tariffs and threats remain a concern. But those resonate less at present.China seems to be taking quite broad central policy actions to transform its industrial policies. Using the excuse of the "trade-war crisis" as motivation, it has released a digital transformation plan for their auto industry alongside similar initiatives for machinery and power equipment. Within those they are moving to promote the "orderly exit of outdated production capacity" as part of its broader industrial strategy.Part of the motivation is to rein in the ultra-competitive nature of Chinese commerce at present, a nationwide race to the bottom in terms of pricing while satisfying rising consumer standards. The big fear is that, uncurbed, it will bankrupt whole industries. They already have enough problems with their property sector. They think they don't need the same in the automotive, and machinery manufacturing sectors as well.In Australia, forecasting conducted for car dealerships suggest vehicles manufactured in China will make up almost half of sales within a decade in a major market shift.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.37%, down -6 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,393/oz, up +US$45 from yesterday.American oil prices are softer at just over US$67/bbl while the international Brent price is now just on US$69/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.8 USc and up +15 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.4, down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,913 and down a minor -0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just on +/-1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with US tariff news probably dominating this week as many countries get letters from Trump. That will likely include Australia and New Zealand.While the direct effect on us will probably be as expected, we will be more vulnerable to secondary impacts - although Canada, Japan, China and the EU all seem to be taking things in their stride, better than anticipated. It seems clear and confirmed tariff taxes are paid by the importing country companies, and the lasting damage will be to US companies and their competitiveness. The forced reassessments elsewhere may prove galvanising for resilience.But first, this week will be all about the New Zealand June quarter CPI result which will be released today at 10:45am. We will have full coverage. It is widely expected to come in higher at 2.8% and the RBNZ too has said it will be higher than what they expected in their May MPS review (2.4%).China will also review its Loan Prime rates today, but those are not expected to change from their record low levels.The ECB, Russia and Turkey will review policy rates this week and there will be a range of early July PMI data out for a number of countries. But nothing really major.But crucial will be the results of the Sunday Japanese upper house election. Those results are coming in now and it seems clear the current coalition government has lost significant support - and with it they are in for a period of less stable fiscal policy until things settle down.In the US, eyes will be on more corporate earnings, with more tech and industrial majors reporting this week including Google and Tesla.Eyes will also be on the will-he-won't-he question of whether Trump will try to fire Powell. (One irony in this saga is that Trump accuses Powell of overspending on a Fed building refurbishment - one initiated by Trump in his first term with the exhortation to 'don't be cheap' and to 'use more marble'.)Staying in the US, a surge in multi-unit house building in the Northeast propelled its overall June housing starts to a good rebound after the very weak May result. But starts for single family homes fell -4.6%, and the starts in the South fell -0.7%, in the West they fell -1.4% and in the Midwest the dropped -5.3%. It clearly remains a fragile sector.Stabilising was the sentiment survey from the University of Michigan for July. It ticked up slightly from June but is still almost -7% lower than year-ago levels. But it is off the canvas because it is now higher than any month since February. Inflation expectations eased back a bit too in July from June.Across the Pacific, Japan's annual inflation rate eased to 3.3% in June 2025 from 3.5% in the previous month, marking the lowest reading since last November. Most components eased, but not food, which rose 7.2%, the most since March, a surge due to the doubling of rice prices over the fast year.In Malaysia, their economy expanded by +4.5% year-on-year in Q2-2025, slightly up from +4.4% growth in the previous period. For them domestic demand was robust, but exports were a bit weaker than anticipated.In Australia, it will be a quiet week of economic data releases and there isn't much chance the release of the RBA minutes on Tuesday (tomorrow) will bring any surprises or special insights.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.43%, up +1 bp from Saturday at this time and back where it was a week ago. The price of gold will start today at US$3,348/oz, down -US$3 from Saturday.American oil prices are unchanged at just under US$67.50/bbl while the international Brent price is now just over US$69/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is still at 59.6 USc and unchanged from Saturday - but down -50 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 51.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.5, unchanged from Saturday as well.The bitcoin price starts today at US$118,085 and up +0.3% from this time Saturday but essentially unchanged from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low, at just over +/-0.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Canada has conceded it has lost its dairy dispute with New Zealand.But first in the US, actual initial jobless claims in the US rose sharply to 261,000 from the previous week but that was less than seasonal factors would have suggested. There are now 2,017,000 people on these benefits, +4% more than year ago levels and the most in four months.After three down months, the Philly Fed factory survey recovered in July. New order intakes rose. But also rising was the prices firms paid for their inputs and what they charged their customers. 'Safe' behind a tariff wall, these firms are showing the expected reactions, ones that will make them internationally uncompetitive.Also rising were US retail sales in June. This also came after two retreating months, and was not expected. Year on year these sales are up +3.7% of which car sales rose +5.3%. Other than vehicles, the rise was +3.3% and still quite positive. However 2.7% of that can be accounted for by CPI inflation.US factory activity and retail sales may be rising but business inventories are not. And that is a resilient sign.One sector not showing any resilience is their house-building sector. The NAHB sentiment survey shows it remains at a low ebb, down near its 2022 lows. Affordability issues remain at the heart of the sector's woes, and they are hardly likely to improve as tariff-taxes flow through.In Canada, they have quietly conceded they have lost their dairy access dispute with New Zealand and will now honour the CPTPP treaty agreements. Although the US is not party to this dispute, the MFN clauses in its USMCA Agreement probably mean wider access for others to the Canadian dairy market.Across the Pacific and continuing its yoyo pattern, Singapore's June exports jumped. In fact they rose +14.3% from May to be +13% higher than year-ago levels.In Australia, their June labour market softened. They were expecting a jobs gain of +20,000 but only got +2,000. Their jobless rate ticked up to 4.3%. As a result, financial market pricing for an RBA rate cut on August 12 have risen.And inflation expectations in Australia are staying stubbornly high - although not as high in July as they were in June. The Melbourne Institute's Survey of Consumer Inflationary and Wage Expectations came in with inflation expectations at 4.7% which was down from June's 5.0% but apart from that still its highest since mid 2023. Expected wage growth fell slightly in July and remains relatively weak.A softening labour market but very high inflation expectations (and a frothy real estate market), will all make the RBA's assessments very difficult.More globally, container freight rates fell -2.6% last week from the prior week to be -55% lower than year-ago levels. But those year-ago levels were unusually boosted by Red Sea tensions. Currently, outbound rates from China are the weak spots in this market. Bulk cargo rates rose a sharp +34% last week to be back to year-ago levels. To be fair these current overall levels are basically 'average' over the past 35 years (so in inflation-adjusted terms they are very low).The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.47%, little-changed from yesterday at this time. Wall Street is firmer today with the S&P500 up +0.6%, enough to claim a new record high. Good corporate earnings are driving the mood.The price of gold will start today at US$3,336/oz, down -US$18 from yesterday at this time.American oil prices are up +US$1 at US$67.50/bbl while the international Brent price is now just under US$69.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.3 USc and down -25 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at 51.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.2, and unchanged.The bitcoin price starts today at US$119,100 and essentially unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest, at just on +/-1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US yield curve has steepened overnight on messy talk about the US Fed's independence, and arbitrary US tariff statements.In more direct economic news, US mortgage applications fell sharply last week, even after adjusting for the holiday weekend. There were -10% lower than the prior week. But they are still +18% higher than a year ago. To be fair, year-ago levels were unusually low. Rising interest rates are getting the blame for the recent fall-off in activityAmerican producer prices rose +2.3% in June which was much less than the May +2.7% rise and less than the expected +2.5%. A rather large and unusual monthly drop in logistics costs kept the overall index restrained.Meanwhile US industrial production inched higher, up +0.7% in June from a year ago. It was driven by a good rise in businesses equipment and mining but that masked a fall in the much larger sector manufacturing consumer goods. But to give better context, neither of those year-on-year gains showed up in June.And that flat recent trend is showing up in the Fed's July Beige Book surveys. Economic activity increased slightly from late May through early July. Five Districts reported slight or modest gains, five had flat activity, and the remaining two Districts noted modest declines in activity. There was nothing here indicating rising business or consumer sentiment and impending investment - pointedly, quite the opposite.Across the border, Canadian housing starts in June stayed high, and certainly higher than expected. They were expected to retreat somewhat after a strong May, but remained at those elevated levels.And staying in Canada, they have released data that shows the gap between the top earners and the bottom earners has reached a record divide. The bottom 40% of households now have less than 3% of all household wealth. The top 10% have almost half. It is a twist that foreshadows future social stresses.Later today we will get Japanese trade data for June, and that is expected to be positive.And as expected. the Indonesian central bank cut its policy rate late yesterday by-25 bps to 5.25%. They said the tariff-rate 'deal' with the US will be positive for them.Also later today we will be watching the June labour market report for Australia. Another good jobs gain is expected (+20,000), skewed sharply towards full-time positions. And we will get an update in Australian inflation expectations.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.46%, down -3 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3,354/oz, up +US$27 from yesterday at this time.American oil prices are little-changed at US$66.50/bbl while the international Brent price is still just over US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.5 USc and up +10 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -20 bps at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.2, and down -20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$119,039 and up +1.4% from this time yesterday. And that takes it back to NZ$200,000. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just on +/-1.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news US inflation is rising and tariffs are getting the blame.But first, the overnight dairy auction brought prices +1.1% higher in USD terms, +3.6% higher in NZD terms. It was the first rise we have had in these full auctions since yearly May. This time, the expected +2.5% rise in SMP was matched by an unexpected rise of +1.7% in WMP prices. Butter prices were unchanged but cheddar cheese prices fell a sharpish -5.6%.In the US they got the expected rise in CPI inflation for June, up 2.7% when it was rising 2.4% in May. The Fed will have noticed that "core inflation" rose 2.9%. Food prices rose 3.0% and rents up 3.8%. The overall level was restrained by an -8.3% drop in petrol prices. As those year-ago petrol prices normalise in future months, they won't be restraining anything. Just in time for the pass-through of the tariff-taxes. An independent Fed will be concerned about the upwad trajectory.A Fed factory survey in the New York state recorded a rise in July, their first since February. But they are seeing input cost pressure picking up. However they also report it is easier to pass on those costs and seemed relieved about that.Canada also reported its June CPI inflation rate, coming in at 1.9%, up from 1.7% in May.India reported declining merchandise exports in June, in fact their lowest level of the year and almost -8% lower than year-ago levels. Imports fell too. But strong services exports (outsourcing services) balanced things out. In contrast to China, India's rise is domestically-driven, not foreign trade driven, making them somewhat insulated from the tariff-wars.China reported that its Q2-2025 economy expanded +5.2% in inflation-adjusted terms from Q2-2024. This was bang on what Beijing had set as a target, and what observers were expecting them to announce. Strong exports and consumer subsidies helped a lot.China said its retail sales were up +4.8% in June from a year ago, its industrial production up +6.8%. So that suggests they had the best of both worlds - rising industry and rising internal consumption. That they seem to have done this all with only a modest rise in electricity production (+1.7%) would be impressive if it was believable. They are almost certainly making big strides in energy efficiency but it is unlikely as reported. Despite these cred issues however, it is clear that the Chinese economy is not going backward.But even if they aren't as steep as they have been over any of the past 15 months, new house prices in China are still falling. Only 12 of the 70 largest cities had prices that held basically unchanged however. But for resales, none were in that category. The lure of housing speculation in China is but a distant memory. For most developers that is trouble. But pockets like in Shenzhen may be seeing a bit of a shine.In the EU, industrial production surprised with a good +3.4% gain in May, far better than expected and continuing the 2025 expansion. The gains were even stronger in the euro areaSo it will be no surprise to learn that German ZEW sentiment seems to be in full recovery mode; this data for July, so those industrial production gains have likely continued.In Australia, the Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment survey showed a third consecutive rise in July, although a small one. Despite the surprise no-cut by the RBA recently, most consumers still expect interest rates to move lower from here. But they remain uncertain about the outlook for the overall economy and jobs. Housing-related sentiment dipped slightly but price expectations remained high.And staying in Australia, the RBA has reached the preliminary view that it would be in the public interest to remove surcharging on eftpos, Mastercard and Visa cards. They also want to lower the cap on interchange fees paid by businesses, and require card networks and large acquirers to publish the fees they charge. They are now in the 'consultation' phase, which will no doubt involve fierce pushback. Here the Commerce Commission has been looking at the same issues, and will report on the New Zealand changes they want to see, very soon.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.49%, up +6 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,327/oz, down -US$22 from yesterday at this time.American oil prices are down -50 USc to US$66.50/bbl while the international Brent price is just over US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.4 USc and down -30 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 51.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 67.4, and down -10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,421 and down -2.0% from this time yesterday. And that takes it back below NZ$200,000. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, still just on +/-1.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

While Obi-Wan Kenobi desperately pursues General Grievous, Captain Rex recovers from an injury and discovers a deserter from the clone army in this episode of The Clone Wars.   In this fully armed and operational episode of Podcast Stardust, we discuss: Obi-Wan Kenobi's desperate pursuit of General Grievous, Suu, the Twi'lek wife to the deserter clone, Cut Lawquane, the clone that deserted from the Grand Army of the Republic to pursue a life his own choosing, Captain Rex's perception of Cut and their discussions, The attack of the Commando Droids, and  The legacy of this episode of The Clone Wars. For more discussion of The Clone Wars, check out episode 903.   Thanks for joining us for another episode! Subscribe to Podcast Stardust for all your Star Wars news, reviews, and discussion wherever you get your podcasts. And please leave us a five star review on Apple Podcasts.   Find Jay and her cosplay adventures on J.Snips Cosplay on Instagram.   Join us for real time discussion on the RetroZap Discord Server here: RetroZap Discord. Follow us on social media: Twitter | Facebook | Instagram | Pinterest | YouTube. T-shirts, hoodies, stickers, masks, and posters are available on TeePublic. Find all episodes on RetroZap.com.

Republic Day Greetings Glocal Citizens! This week's guest is another Glocal Citizens connection. In spring 2024, Amma Gyampo (https://glocalcitizens.fireside.fm/guests/amma-gyampo) reached out to me me about connecting me with a like mind in education. That was the beginning of ongoing conversations with Laureen “Laury” Adams. With over 20 years of experience spanning both international and U.S. contexts as a classroom teacher, school leader, coach, designer, and professor, Dr. Laury possesses a unique skill set. This includes shaping innovative curricula, effectively supporting learning communities of all sizes, and coaching leaders to drive impactful change. Her design background informs her expertise in project-based learning approaches, performance assessment, and liberatory praxis. She collaborates with schools and education organizations to design critical, responsive, and loving curricula, assessments, and professional learning opportunities. Laureen is the founder and Executive Director of the Tutu Institute of Education for Liberation. As well as Senior Director of Professional Learning at ASCD Ghana (https://ghascd.org). Among her other roles on boards and consulting she is a Research Fellow and Adjunct Professor at Claremont Graduate University. She recently co-authored This Teachable Moment: Engaging Our Kids in the Joy of Learning (https://www.pblworks.org/for-families) to support parents and caregivers with providing project-based learning experiences at home. Download your free copy and #listenandlearn more about Laury's work in session at SXSW EDU 2025 (https://schedule.sxswedu.com/2025/speakers/286691). Today, July 1st, Ghana marks its 65th Republic Day (https://nationaltoday.com/ghana-republic-day/). Our conversation speaks to many of the themes we continue to work to realize as the country sheds its colonial character as a sovereign, free republic with Ghanaians leading and steering our social and economic destiny. Where to find Laury? https://www.liberatorylove.com/ On LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/in/laureen-adams-tutu-phd/) On Instagram (https://www.instagram.com/laureenadamsphd/) On Facebook (https://web.facebook.com/laureenadamsphd) What's Laury reading? One Day, Everyone Will Have Been Against This (https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/777485/one-day-everyone-will-have-always-been-against-this-by-omar-el-akkad/) by Omar El Akkad Finding Your Leadership Soul (https://www.ascd.org/books/finding-your-leadership-soul?variant=123025) by Carlos R. Moreno What's Laury watching? Forever, a new series (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forever_(2025_TV_series)) Other topics of interest: About Long Beach, California (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Beach,_California) NYC Teaching Fellows Program (https://nycteachingfellows.org) Envsion Academy Charter School (https://envisionschools.org/our-schools/envision-academy/#:~:text=Envision%20Academy%20of%20Arts%20and,in%20college%20and%20in%20life.) Teach for America (https://www.teachforamerica.org) Sponsors for Educational Opportunities (https://www.seo-usa.org) 'Love” in Twi (https://learnakandictionary.com/english-twi/love/) Special Guest: Laureen Adams.

Nintendo owns CES, The future belongs to the internet & EA disses Sega These stories and many more on this episode of the VGNRTM! This episode we will look back at the biggest stories in and around the video game industry in September 1994.  As always, we'll mostly be using magazine cover dates, and those are of course always a bit behind the actual events. Alex Smith of They Create Worlds is our cohost.  Check out his podcast here: https://www.theycreateworlds.com/ and order his book here: https://www.theycreateworlds.com/book Get us on your mobile device: Android:  https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly92aWRlb2dhbWVuZXdzcm9vbXRpbWVtYWNoaW5lLmxpYnN5bi5jb20vcnNz iOS:      https://podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/video-game-newsroom-time-machine And if you like what we are doing here at the podcast, don't forget to like us on your podcasting app of choice, YouTube, and/or support us on patreon! https://www.patreon.com/VGNRTM Send comments on Mastodon @videogamenewsroomtimemachine@oldbytes.space Or twitter @videogamenewsr2 Or Instagram https://www.instagram.com/vgnrtm Or videogamenewsroomtimemachine@gmail.com Links: If you don't see all the links, find them here:     https://www.patreon.com/posts/131691264 7 Minutes in Heaven: Zero Tolerance Video Version: https://www.patreon.com/posts/131666929     https://www.mobygames.com/game/10115/zero-tolerance/ Corrections: August 1994 Ep - https://www.patreon.com/posts/august-1994-123352781 Ethan's fine site The History of How We Play: https://thehistoryofhowweplay.wordpress.com/     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic:_The_Gathering     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sega     https://www.retroreversing.com/super-famicom-snes-sdk/     https://archive.org/details/st-report             https://patentarcade.com/tag/alpex-computer-v-nintendo 1994: Street Fighter loses its luster     A Warrior of Video Games, The New York Times, September 6, 1994, Tuesday, Late Edition - Final, Distribution: Financial Desk, Section: Section D; ; Section D; Page 1; Column 6; Financial Desk ; Column 6; Byline: By ANDREW POLLACK,     Capcom's video game superhero, Mega Man, debuts this week in nationally syndicated cartoon series; Interactive software giant embraces Hollywood to create precedent-setting entertainment, Business Wire, September 7, 1994, Wednesday     https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0111301/?ref_=fn_all_ttl_2         https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0219458/?ref_=fn_all_ttl_14         https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0115421/?ref_=fn_all_ttl_1         https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USA_Action_Extreme_Team     https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0165046/?ref_=fn_all_ttl_1         Joe Morici - Capcom - https://www.patreon.com/posts/37289815 CD duplicators expand their offerings     "Keeping Track Of All Trades; Replicators Go Beyond The Basics, Branching Out Into Packaging,Distribution And More, Billboard, September 3, 1994, Section: CD REPLICATION; Spotlight; Pg. 86, Byline: BY PAUL VERNA           The Expanding Universe Of Replication; Companies Roll Out The Format Welcome Mat, Opening The Door To CDROM And Others, Billboard, September 3, 1994, Section: CD REPLICATION; Spotlight; Pg. 84, Byline: BY STEVE TRAIMAN" CD piracy explodes in Hong Kong     Software pirates strike gold, South China Morning Post (Hong Kong), September 15, 1994, Section: FEATURE; Pg. 25          https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=eEUNtQprsc0 Best Buy expands     Best Buy Plans Southern Calif. Invasion; Discounter Promises 'New Shopping Experience', Billboard, September 10, 1994, Section: Pg. 5, Byline: BY EILEEN FITZPATRICK Woolworth UK hit hard by drop  in computer software sales     Kingfisher offshoots turn in mixed performance, Financial Times (London,England), September 14, 1994, Wednesday, London, Section: UK Company News; Pg. 25,  Rhino sees slowdown     Rhino runs deeper into red at midway, Financial Times (London,England), September 20, 1994, Tuesday, Section: UK Company News; Pg. 26, Byline: By GARY EVANS Video game slump hits Wong         Video-game slump hits firm, South China Morning Post (Hong Kong), September 30, 1994, Section: BUSINESS; Pg. 18     Raymond Yap - Wong's International, Mondex - https://www.patreon.com/posts/108390526 Playmates shifts to games     Post-TMNT Playmates Goes Vid, Ad Day, September 19, 1994, Section: NEW PRODUCTS; Pg. 17 Software Toolworks becomes Mindscape     THE SOFTWARE TOOLWORKS, INC. BECOMES MINDSCAP , INC., PR Newswire, September 30, 1994, Friday - 19:34 Eastern Time Strauss Zelnick to head BMG     "Ex-IBM chief to head Canadian films group, Financial Times (London,England), September 15, 1994, Thursday, London; Section: International Company News; Pg. 27, Byline: By LOUISE KEHOE and REUTER          Ex-Film Executive Chosen To Head Bertelsmann Unit, The New York Times, September 14, 1994, Wednesday, Late Edition - Final, Distribution: Financial Desk, Section: Section D; ; Section D; Page 8; Column 5; Financial Desk ; Column 5; Byline: By SALLIE HOFMEISTER,            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss_Zelnick Katzenberg out at Disney     Now Playing: Disney in Turmoil, The New York Times, September 23, 1994, Friday, Late Edition - Final, Distribution: Financial Desk, Section: Section D; ; Section D; Page 1; Column 3; Financial Desk ; Column 3; Byline: By BERNARD WEINRAUB with GERALDINE FABRIKANT,     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DisneyWar     https://www.amazon.com/Men-Who-Would-King-DreamWorks/dp/0547520271 Battletech Centers go online     L.A.-Vegas link makes virtual a new reality, The Hollywood Reporter, September 2, 1994, Friday            DISNEY'S GAME LINK, Variety, September 12, 1994 - September 18, 1994, Section: SPECIAL REPORT: INTERTAINMENT; Update; Pg. 33 Nicastro's to co-CEO WMS     Neil D. Nicastro appointed co-chief executive officer of WMS Industries, Business Wire, September 12, 1994, Monday Arnie's Place closes down     Scrappy Arcade Owner Gives Up the Fight, The New York Times, September 20, 1994, Tuesday, Late Edition - Final, Distribution: Metropolitan Desk, Section: Section B; ; Section B; Page 4; Column 1; Metropolitan Desk ; Column 1; ; Biography, Byline: Arnie Kaye, Special to The New York Times, Dateline: WESTPORT, Conn., Sept. 19           https://www.nytimes.com/1994/09/20/nyregion/scrappy-arcade-owner-gives-up-the-fight.html?searchResultPosition=1          http://arniesplacearcade.com/pictures.html Nintendo owns CES     https://archive.org/details/edge-012-september-1994/page/10/mode/2up?view=theater     https://archive.org/details/edge-012-september-1994/page/44/mode/1up?view=theater RPGs, adventures and doom clones abound on pc at ces     https://archive.org/details/computer-gaming-world-issue-122-september-1994/page/22/mode/1up?view=theater      Sega bypasses Japanese distributors     SEGA DECIDES TO SELL DIRECT TO RETAILERS, Computergram International, September 13, 1994 EA disses Saturn     No Headline In Original, Consumer Electronics, September 19, 1994, Section: NOTEBOOK, Vol. 34, No. 38 3DO's next gen system is a dog...     https://archive.org/details/edge-012-september-1994/page/6/mode/2up     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panasonic_M2 ESRB rates its first game     No Headline In Original, Consumer Electronics, September 12, 1994, Section: NOTEBOOK, Vol. 34, No. 37 Mortal Kombat II breaks records     Acclaim's 'Mortal Kombat II' breaks video game and film industry records with $50 million opening week, Business Wire, September 22, 1994, Thursday Sega and Nintendo plan big Xmas ad spends     Sega and Nintendo Prepare to Do Battle Over Holiday Season Sales, Wall Street Journal (3 Star, Eastern (Princeton, NJ), Edition), , September 21, 1994, Business and Industry, Section: Pg. B10; Vol. CCXXIV; No. 57; ISSN: 0099-9660 EA sees CD future     Electronic Arts Shifts Focus to CD-ROM Video Games, Wall Street Journal (3 Star, Eastern (Princeton, NJ) Edition), September 7, 1994, Business and Industry, Section: Pg. B4; Vol. CCXXIV; No. 47; ISSN: 0099-9660 CDi gets new slogan     A NEW STRATEGY FOR CD-I PHILIPS LOWERS PRICE, CHANGES SLOGAN  TO DRIVE SALES, Advertising Age, September 26, 1994, Section: Pg. 14         https://youtu.be/TgtBDVRwKCQ?si=77kblLoNQUYxSl16 China seen as growth market by Nintendo     Nintendo to launch game software production in China, Japan Economic Newswire, SEPTEMBER 6, 1994, TUESDAY, Dateline: TOKYO, Sept. 6 Kyodo     Taiwan firm to compensate Nintendo, Singapore Business Times, September 18, 1994 Sanyo avoids face off with Matsushita         Sanyo to market 32-bit computer game, Report From Japan, September 1, 1994     https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7327486440387289088/ Konix lives     Aiming to succeed where others have failed - MSU's CD systems look set to find their way into homes world-wide / Growth from Technology, Financial Times (London,England), September 8, 1994, Thursday, London, Section: UK Company News; Pg. 30, Byline: By ALAN CANE     https://www.konixmultisystem.co.uk/index.php?id=interviews&content=wyn Myst coming to laseractive     https://segaretro.org/Myst_(Mega_LD)         Pioneer gets LaserActive with 'Myst' software hit; Redford eco entertainment also set for format, The Hollywood Reporter, September 6, 1994, Tuesday, Byline: Scott Hettrick       https://segaretro.org/Legacy Time Warner picks up Rise of the Robots     Time Warner Interactive to release "Rise of the Robots" on CD-ROM and Floppy in United States; TWi also to release "Rise" on 10 interactive platforms in Europe, Business Wire, September 6, 1994, Tuesday, Dateline: MILPITAS, Calif.      Sega bets on Cornhuskers     "Sega Sports opens college football season by predicting this weekend's winners on the new ""College Football National Championship"" video game;Nebraska Cornhuskers take national championship on Sega Sports field, Business Wire, September 2, 1994, Friday" Shaq goes multiple media     ive, EA Hope Shaq Game/CD Promo Hits Nothing But Net, Billboard, September 24, 1994, Section: ARTISTS & MUSIC; Pg. 10, Byline: BY MARILYN A. GILLEN Chaos Studios renamed     Gamepro September 1994 pg. 161      Tensions between Intel and Compaq heat up     Compaq-Intel spat is fascinated dread, Financial Times (London,England), September 20, 1994, Tuesday, Section: Pg. 21, Byline: By LOUISE KEHOE and ALAN CANE PowerPC alliance unravels     BUSINESS TECHNOLOGY; Computing's Bold Alliance Falters, The New York Times, September 14, 1994, Wednesday, Late Edition - Final, Distribution: Financial Desk, Section: Section D; ; Section D; Page 1; Column 3; Financial Desk ; Column 3; Target moving out of PC business     No Headline In Original, Consumer Electronics, September 12, 1994, Section: NOTEBOOK, Vol. 34, No. 37 MOS technology sold         STARTING FROM ASHES OF OLD FIRM COMMODORE'S NORRISTOWN PLANT CAN BE SOLD TO A START-UP COMPANY, U.S. BANKRUPTCY COURT SAID., The Philadelphia Inquirer, September 24, 1994 Saturday FINAL EDITION, Section: BUSINESS; Pg. D01     CONTENDER FOR FIRM ADVERTISES FOR HELP ONE BIDDER FOR COMMODORE IS ALREADY SEEKING WORKERS. THE OTHER BIDDER SAYS IT WANTS THE RESUMES, TOO., The Philadelphia Inquirer, September 22, 1994 Thursday FINAL EDITION, Section: BUSINESS; Pg. C01     Der PC-Pionier stellte Antrag auf Konkurs,  Handelsblatt, September 13, 1994, Business and Industry, Section: Pg. 11; ISSN: 0017-7296 Wing Commander budget to break records     Computer Gaming World, September 1994 pg. 12     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transmetropolitan Activision brings back 2600 classics     ACTIVISION'S NEW ATARI 2600(TM) ANTHOLOGY - A REAL BLAST FROM THE PAST; ORIGINAL BEST-SELLING HITS TO BE AVAILABLE FOR WINDOWS EARLY '95, PR Newswire, September 20, 1994, Tuesday - 15:02 Eastern Time, Section: Financial News Monty Python comes to CDRom     COMPUTER GAMES: THE CIRCUS COMES TO TOWN; Jack Schofield on something very silly a CD-ROM celebration of Monty Python, The Guardian (London), September 22, 1994, Section: THE GUARDIAN ONLINE PAGE; Pg. T7      The Information Super Highway is destined to fail     "The information highway heads for the exit lane, The Age (Melbourne, Australia), September 13, 1994 Tuesday Late Edition, Section: NEWS; Features; Pg. 15" Ads will make the interactive world go round.     into the ring, ADWEEK, September 5, 1994, All Southeast EditionSouthwest EditionWestern Advertising News Edition, Section: SPECIAL REPORT, Byline: By Michael Schrage      The future belongs to content     "start your content engines, ADWEEK, September 5, 1994, All Southeast EditionSouthwest EditionWestern Advertising News Edition, Section: SPECIAL REPORT, byline: By Michael Krantz"      FCC to investigate interactive TV bidders     FCC probing interactive video bidders, The Hollywood Reporter, September 1, 1994, Thursday AT&T pushes The Edge over a ledge     AT&T Scraps Plan to Sell Gear For Video Game, Wall Street Journal (3 Star, Eastern (Princeton, NJ) Edition), September 1, 1994          AT&T PULLS PLUG ON EDGE 16, Consumer Electronics, September 5, 1994, Section: THIS WEEK'S NEWS, Vol. 34, No. 36; Pg. 15          WHEN IT COMES TO NEW MEDIA, AT&T'S NOT PLAYING GAMES; AT THE MOVIES: TWO-WAY TV; RETAILERS SIGN ON TO INTERACTIVE TV; COMPUSERVE TO BE INTERNET PROVIDER; OTHER NEWS: , Advertising Age, September 05, 1994, Section: Pg. 13      BellAtlantic, Time Warner and Viacom face delays     Discord and Delay for Bell Atlantic Network, The New York Times, September 9, 1994, Friday, Late Edition - Final, Section: Section D; ; Section D; Page 1; Column 3; Financial Desk ; Column 3; Byline: By EDMUND L. ANDREWS, Compuserve moves to the internet     WHEN IT COMES TO NEW MEDIA, AT&T'S NOT PLAYING GAMES; AT THE MOVIES: TWO-WAY TV; RETAILERS SIGN ON TO INTERACTIVE TV; COMPUSERVE TO BE INTERNET PROVIDER; OTHER NEWS: , Advertising Age, September 05, 1994, Section: Pg. 13# Online services days numbered     The Executive Computer; In the On-Line Market, the Name of the Game Is Internet, The New York Times, September 25, 1994, Sunday, Late Edition - Final, Distribution: Financial Desk, Section: Section 3; ; Section 3; Page 7; Column 1; Financial Desk ; Column 1; XBAND to launch as Genesis exclusive     Sega and Catapult sign agreement to support XBAND game modem and network service, Business Wire, September 6, 1994, Tuesday,                   Catapult Video-Game Modem Gets a Boost From Sega, Nintendo, Wall Street Journal (3 Star, Eastern (Princeton, NJ) Edition), September 7, 1994, Section: Pg. B8; Vol. CCXXIV; No. 47; ISSN: 0099-9660     T-HQ announces debt and equity financings, Business Wire, September 19, 1994, Monday Playstation to go online... in France     Sony, France Telecom link in video game business, Japan Economic Newswire, SEPTEMBER 16, 1994, FRIDAY CDRom gets online updates     RealTime Moving Quickly Into Sports Arena; BMG, Nederlander Behind New CD-ROM Supplier, Billboard, September 17, 1994, Section: THE ENTER*ACTIVE FILE; Pg. 68, Byline: MARILYN A. GILLEN Mondex aims to revolutionize payments     A Visionary Pushes Toward the Cashless Revolution, American Banker, September 15, 1994, Business and Industry, Section: Pg. 12; Vol. 159; No. 178; ISSN: 0002-7561        https://www.patreon.com/posts/108390526?collection=481857 Futurist sees internet as savior of democracy     Books and Authors, The Associated Press, September 2, 1994, Friday, BC cycle, Section: Entertainment News, Byline: By ELIZABETH WEISE, Associated Press Writer           https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318765343_The_Virtual_Community_Homesteading_on_the_Electronic_Frontier UK magazine market collapses     GAMES MAGAZINES: A MILLION CRUEL CUTS, The Guardian (London), September 22, 1994, Section: THE GUARDIAN ONLINE PAGE; Pg. T3      Atari and Sega bury the hatchet     Sega and Atari Announce Longterm Licensing Agreements, Equity, Investment, and Resolution of Disputes, Business Wire, September 28, 1994, Wednesday Nintendo sues TSMC         NINTENDO FI ES SUIT AGAINST TAIWAN COMPANY TO STOP COUNTERFEITING OF VIDEO GAME SEMICONDUCTOR CHIPS, PR Newswire, September 13, 1994, Tuesday - 16:47 Eastern Time     919  921     COUNTERFEIT CHIP SUIT, Consumer Electronics, September 19, 1994, Section: THIS WEEK'S NEWS, Vol. 34, No. 38     https://archive.org/details/AtariCorporationAnnualReport1994 Nintendo wins in Taiwan Court     Taiwan firm to compensate Nintendo, Singapore Business Times, September 18, 1994 9th Circuit rebukes Apple     Apple's Copyright Suit Against Rivals Rejected, The Associated Press, September 19, 1994, Monday, AM cycle, Section: Business News, Byline: By BOB EGELKO, Associated Press Writer      George Forman KOs Power Punch II in court     No Headline In Original, Consumer Electronics, September 5, 1994, Section: NOTEBOOK, Vol. 34, No. 36; Pg. 12      Acclaim mocap comes to the big screen     Acclaim Motion Capture Technology Tapped For Warner Bros. 'Batman Forever'; Special Effects to Employ Motion Capture, Business Wire, September 1, 1994, Thursday        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZrZK9-stCM Watch the future of computing on your TV     https://archive.org/details/jcnhomecomputing/Home.Computing.1.XviD-VHSRip.avi          PCTV, INC. ANNOUNCES NEW @OME O FICE COMPUTER SHOWS AS PART OF FALL LINEUP OF TV PROGRAMS, PR Newswire, September 13, 1994, Tuesday - 06:57 Eastern Time Photoshop gets layered     Byte September 1994 pg. 30 Pulp Fiction wins Palm D'Or     THE MOVIE JUNKIE; The critics hated it, the audience hurled abuse: stand by for Quentin Tarantino's Pulp Fiction, The Guardian (London), September 19, 1994, Section: THE GUARDIAN FEATURES PAGE; Pg. T8 Recommended Links: The History of How We Play: https://thehistoryofhowweplay.wordpress.com/ Gaming Alexandria: https://www.gamingalexandria.com/wp/ They Create Worlds: https://tcwpodcast.podbean.com/ Digital Antiquarian: https://www.filfre.net/ The Arcade Blogger: https://arcadeblogger.com/ Retro Asylum: http://retroasylum.com/category/all-posts/ Retro Game Squad: http://retrogamesquad.libsyn.com/ Playthrough Podcast: https://playthroughpod.com/ Retromags.com: https://www.retromags.com/ Games That Weren't - https://www.gamesthatwerent.com/ Sound Effects by Ethan Johnson of History of How We Play. Copyright Karl Kuras

The Brothers Krynn return to share their fan fiction idea, The Kenobi Timeline. Inspired by the Legends novel, Secrets of the Jedi, the story follows the what-if scenario of Obi-Wan and Obi-Wan's lover, Siri secretly having a child. From there events unfold unexpectedly, especially with lesser-known companions of Anakin and Obi-Wan who are the focus of the narrative. Each of these characters has a fully fleshed-out backstory with motivations that weave into but never contradict the events of the Prequels. Want more energy and essential vitamins for your day but want to limit your caffeine intake? Visit https://www.magicmind.com/swlc to get up to 48% off with my code: SWLC20 As you listen along, you can refer to the character glossary provided by the Brothers Krynn: Tahlon Kenobi: son of Obi-Wan Kenobi and Siri Tachi (Kenobi), Wields a double-sided Blue lightsaber, his style is Form IV (Ataru variant) Talanis Salazzar: Mandalorian warrior woman, 5 years older than Tahlon. Number one Mandalorian bounty-hunter after Jango Fett Darael Feran: Trandoshan Jedi Master, Wields double-sided Green lightsaber, his style is Form III (Soresu variant), Melirah Stardust's master before leaving the order to join the Jedi, who chose to leave to work with Dooku in the CIS Melirah Stardust: A young Jedi, same age as Anakini with Red hair, born on Tattooine to a Moisture Farmer, she is hot-headed, yet dreams of being a healer. She was Darael Feran's padawan. She is the most gifted seer of her generation. Her style is Form VI (Jar'Kai) (Form IV Ataru Variant) Her right-handed lightsaber is yellow, her left-handed one is blue Mi'kraan Darklighter: A young Jedi, born on the same day, same hour as Melirah, though the two are not related, they share a bond with each other. She is tall and blonde haired, statuesque, the more beautiful of the two. A gentle soul who specializes in diplomacy and teaching younglings. She dislikes violence in all its forms, and has requested to resign her military position, but has been refused. A favourite of Yoda. Her style is Form VI (Jar'Kai) (Form III Soresu variant) Her right-hand lightsaber is Green, her left-hand is Yellow Fergus Feld: One year older than Anakin, a personality like Sturm Brightblade (Dragonlance), is fanatically loyal to the order, and a good friend of Tahlon. He does not trust Anakin and thinks he will turn to the darkside, and in extension dislikes Obi-Wan, a favourite of Yoda, who was abused by his master, Yaduu. His lightsaber style is Form V, and Form VII (Shien/Djem-So and Juyo) his lightsaber colour is blue Grrwyan: A wookie Jedi Tahlon grew up with. He dislikes Tahlon. His style is Form V (Shien/Djem-So) His lightsaber colour is Blue Ivec'leba: A twi'lek initiate Tahlon grew up with, she was sold into slavery, and liberated by Millennia Far'lin. She dies in Tahlon's arms when he is an initiate Jedi Master Chirus: A half-Blind Solustan jedi, who exposed his previous padawan's affair with another jedi, which led her to commit suicide, which traumatized. He later becomes Tahlon's master, and is three years older than Dooku. He dies on Geonosis. His apprentice was a young woman by the name of Yasmina Shen. Her former lover fled with her child to the outer rim, and founded a Jedi cult which her widow and son will end up fighting in the clone wars on the side of the Republic, as Chirus made peace with him three years before he died. Chirus' style is Form VI (Niiman) His colour is Green. Millennia Farland: The daughter of a deceased freedom fighter of Ryloth, Millennia picked up his torch and his movement to liberate all the Twi'leks from the Hutts and the Exchange, she has since become the Senator of Renkloth. (We set the planet in the neighbouring star system next to Ryloth.) She is a firebrand, who is friends of Tahlon, hates the Hutts and consistently pushes for Republican interference in twi'lek affairs, and has become disillusioned with the Senate. She is also given a military commission for the Grand Army of the Republic. Alpha Squad: Tahlon's personal Commando unit. They consist of RC-1515 “Quinze” (Leader), RC-9888 “Zuko” (Demolitions), RC-0109 “Nate” (Weapons) and RC-2898 “Wyatt” (Tech Specialist) RC-1515 “Quinze”: The leader of Alpha Squad, he has a sardonic sense of humour, similar to that of Qui-Gon Jinn. He is also strict, and at times inflexible, and is very shy around beautiful women. He is force sensitive. RC-9888 “Zuko”: The Demolitions expert of Alpha Squad, he is argumentative, severe, who complains a lot, and has a bit of a temper. He is always arguing and fighting with Nate, and yet the two consider each other almost twins. RC-0109 “Nate”: The weapons expert: He is chatty, gabby, cheerful and friendly. Nate loves heavy-grade weaponry. He considers his voice a gift from the force. He also loves show tunes and pretty women. RC-2898 “Wyatt”: The Tech specialist, he is sarcastic, a little vain about his appearance, he has a superiority complex in regards to his IQ, and is the quiet member of the team, even as he considers himself a connoisseur of fine arts and pop stars. ARC-Commander 1139 “Hale”: Commander of the 339th Legion, he serves as Mi'kraan's clone commander. Where she dislikes violence, he revels in it. He is cold and calculating, and a General of the highest quality. He was one of the top graduates from Kamino in strategy and tactics. ARC-Commander 3615 “Boom”: Commander of the 431th Legion. Tahlon's clone commander, his solution to every problem is explosives, bombardment, and even more explosives. He is very good friends with Nate and Zuko. He is fairly cheerful by nature. ARC-Commander 1238 “Krath”: Commander of the 436th Legion. One of the most bloodthirsty clone commanders, and is absolutely ruthless. He believes in no mercy, and has a belief system akin to Canderous Ordo, except he scorns the disloyal and self-serving Mandalorians, and thinks that Clones are superior to them, as he does the Jedi, whom he holds in high regard. He is Melirah's clone commander. ARC-Commander 1138 “Crusher”: Commander of the 189th Legion. Another ruthless clone commander with a cold and impatient side, who believes people have to win his respect, as he hates incompetence, and has no patience for fools. He is the finest clone commander in the galaxy. He serves under Fergus, and has been lauded by Mace Windu. CT-1159 Sergeant “Muln”: A rambunctious, duty-obsessed starfighter pilot in the Republic Navy, he serves under Melirah, and is a quick shot, and impulsive pilot. He is named after Garen Muln, the finest pilot in the galaxy. Darin Pol: A Kel-Dor Martial Artist and security officer who volunteers for the navy, and is put in Melirah's Legion. will continuously reference Justice. He is wise, and the sworn brother of Sergeant Muln Darth Malignus: A Sith Knight trained by a Sith cult that swears itself to Count Dooku and the CIS, he is the top warrior of the cult, and is from the planet Sorrus. His lightsaber is the sith variant of Form VI (Jar'Kai, Form V Shien/Djem-So variant,) He is very much inspired by Dinobot from Beast Wars.

Many thanks to listener Joshua for this brilliant episode idea - what was the Halcyon like for non-humans? We immediately thought of Twi'leks, thanks to our own Captain Ma'Li Ficent. As one of Star Wars' most beloved alien species, Twi'leks brought unique magic to the Galactic Starcruiser experience. We tracked down three renowned Twi'lek cosplayers who sailed the Halcyon in full cosplay, and their stories are extraordinary. From surprising cast member interactions to behind-the-scenes moments you won't believe, discover how becoming a Twi'lek transformed their voyage into something truly special. Heroes of the Halcyon on InstagramTheme Music ("Digital Discourse") by Yellow BarrelSend your email to heroesofthehalcyon@gmail.com - we'd love to hear from you about your journeys, episode suggestions, or just to say hi!

Although the jetlag has left him scarred and deformed, Freddy C is BACK from Star Wars Celebration in Tokyo, Japan. He's here to tell us all about his experience and be our tour guide to all the Legends-related info that came out of the convention. We'll speculate about Starfighter, the Legends references in Andor Season 2, and of course Maul: Shadow Lord and the mysterious red-skinned Twi'lek—could it be Darth Talon? Listen to find out what we think.

The Brothers Krynn come back on the pod to share their fan fiction idea, The Kenobi Timeline. Inspired by the Legends novel, Secrets of the Jedi, the story follows the what-if scenario of Obi-Wan and Obi-Wan's lover, Siri secretly having a child. From there events unfold unexpectedly, especially with lesser-known companions of Anakin and Obi-Wan who are the focus of the narrative. Each of these characters has a fully fleshed-out backstory with motivations that weave into but never contradict the events of the Prequels.  Want more energy and essential vitamins for your day but want to limit your caffeine intake? Visit https://www.magicmind.com/swlc to get up to 48% off with my code:  SWLC20 As you listen along, you can refer to the character glossary provided by the Brothers Krynn:  Tahlon Kenobi: son of Obi-Wan Kenobi and Siri Tachi (Kenobi), Wields a double-sided Blue lightsaber, his style is Form IV (Ataru variant) Talanis Salazzar: Mandalorian warrior woman, 5 years older than Tahlon. Number one Mandalorian bounty-hunter after Jango Fett Darael Feran: Trandoshan Jedi Master, Wields double-sided Green lightsaber, his style is Form III (Soresu variant), Melirah Stardust's master before leaving the order to join the Jedi, who chose to leave to work with Dooku in the CIS Melirah Stardust: A young Jedi, same age as Anakini with Red hair, born on Tattooine to a Moisture Farmer, she is hot-headed, yet dreams of being a healer. She was Darael Feran's padawan. She is the most gifted seer of her generation. Her style is Form VI (Jar'Kai) (Form IV Ataru Variant) Her right-handed lightsaber is yellow, her left-handed one is blue Mi'kraan Darklighter: A young Jedi, born on the same day, same hour as Melirah, though the two are not related, they share a bond with each other. She is tall and blonde haired, statuesque, the more beautiful of the two. A gentle soul who specializes in diplomacy and teaching younglings. She dislikes violence in all its forms, and has requested to resign her military position, but has been refused. A favourite of Yoda. Her style is Form VI (Jar'Kai) (Form III Soresu variant) Her right-hand lightsaber is Green, her left-hand is Yellow Fergus Feld: One year older than Anakin, a personality like Sturm Brightblade (Dragonlance), is fanatically loyal to the order, and a good friend of Tahlon. He does not trust Anakin and thinks he will turn to the darkside, and in extension dislikes Obi-Wan, a favourite of Yoda, who was abused by his master, Yaduu. His lightsaber style is Form V, and Form VII (Shien/Djem-So and Juyo) his lightsaber colour is blue Grrwyan: A wookie Jedi Tahlon grew up with. He dislikes Tahlon. His style is Form V (Shien/Djem-So) His lightsaber colour is Blue Ivec'leba: A twi'lek initiate Tahlon grew up with, she was sold into slavery, and liberated by Millennia Far'lin. She dies in Tahlon's arms when he is an initiate Jedi Master Chirus: A half-Blind Solustan jedi, who exposed his previous padawan's affair with another jedi, which led her to commit suicide, which traumatized. He later becomes Tahlon's master, and is three years older than Dooku. He dies on Geonosis. His apprentice was a young woman by the name of Yasmina Shen. Her former lover fled with her child to the outer rim, and founded a Jedi cult which her widow and son will end up fighting in the clone wars on the side of the Republic, as Chirus made peace with him three years before he died. Chirus' style is Form VI (Niiman) His colour is Green. Millennia Farland: The daughter of a deceased freedom fighter of Ryloth, Millennia picked up his torch and his movement to liberate all the Twi'leks from the Hutts and the Exchange, she has since become the Senator of Renkloth. (We set the planet in the neighbouring star system next to Ryloth.) She is a firebrand, who is friends of Tahlon, hates the Hutts and consistently pushes for Republican interference in twi'lek affairs, and has become disillusioned with the Senate. She is also given a military commission for the Grand Army of the Republic. Alpha Squad: Tahlon's personal Commando unit. They consist of RC-1515 “Quinze” (Leader), RC-9888 “Zuko” (Demolitions), RC-0109 “Nate” (Weapons) and RC-2898 “Wyatt” (Tech Specialist) RC-1515 “Quinze”: The leader of Alpha Squad, he has a sardonic sense of humour, similar to that of Qui-Gon Jinn. He is also strict, and at times inflexible, and is very shy around beautiful women. He is force sensitive. RC-9888 “Zuko”: The Demolitions expert of Alpha Squad, he is argumentative, severe, who complains a lot, and has a bit of a temper. He is always arguing and fighting with Nate, and yet the two consider each other almost twins. RC-0109 “Nate”: The weapons expert: He is chatty, gabby, cheerful and friendly. Nate loves heavy-grade weaponry. He considers his voice a gift from the force. He also loves show tunes and pretty women. RC-2898 “Wyatt”: The Tech specialist, he is sarcastic, a little vain about his appearance, he has a superiority complex in regards to his IQ, and is the quiet member of the team, even as he considers himself a connoisseur of fine arts and pop stars. ARC-Commander 1139 “Hale”: Commander of the 339th Legion, he serves as Mi'kraan's clone commander. Where she dislikes violence, he revels in it. He is cold and calculating, and a General of the highest quality. He was one of the top graduates from Kamino in strategy and tactics. ARC-Commander 3615 “Boom”: Commander of the 431th Legion. Tahlon's clone commander, his solution to every problem is explosives, bombardment, and even more explosives. He is very good friends with Nate and Zuko. He is fairly cheerful by nature. ARC-Commander 1238 “Krath”: Commander of the 436th Legion. One of the most bloodthirsty clone commanders, and is absolutely ruthless. He believes in no mercy, and has a belief system akin to Canderous Ordo, except he scorns the disloyal and self-serving Mandalorians, and thinks that Clones are superior to them, as he does the Jedi, whom he holds in high regard. He is Melirah's clone commander. ARC-Commander 1138 “Crusher”: Commander of the 189th Legion. Another ruthless clone commander with a cold and impatient side, who believes people have to win his respect, as he hates incompetence, and has no patience for fools. He is the finest clone commander in the galaxy. He serves under Fergus, and has been lauded by Mace Windu. CT-1159 Sergeant “Muln”: A rambunctious, duty-obsessed starfighter pilot in the Republic Navy, he serves under Melirah, and is a quick shot, and impulsive pilot. He is named after Garen Muln, the finest pilot in the galaxy.  Darin Pol: A Kel-Dor Martial Artist and security officer who volunteers for the navy, and is put in Melirah's Legion. will continuously reference Justice. He is wise, and the sworn brother of Sergeant Muln Darth Malignus: A Sith Knight trained by a Sith cult that swears itself to Count Dooku and the CIS, he is the top warrior of the cult, and is from the planet Sorrus. His lightsaber is the sith variant of Form VI (Jar'Kai, Form V Shien/Djem-So variant,) He is very much inspired by Dinobot from Beast Wars.

Cindy Mills did not grow up in a generational RA family. She was accessed through a babysitter at the tender age of 4. In what was probably a Santeria group, Cindy silently endured two years of terrifying abuse. Hear her story and how it set her up to join The Way International at age 18. She felt it was safer than being in the Catholic Church with the iconography of her abuse. TWI became another group to escape. Finally, she found the true Lord Jesus Christ and He set her free. Follow her incredible story in today's podcast. Only God Rescued Me: Website: www.onlygodrescuedme.com Contact Lisa:lisa@onlygodrescuedme.comTo help support this podcast: https://buymeacoffee.com/onlygodrescuedme.com

Star Wars Generations: Revisiting The Clone Wars Season 1 Ryloth ArcIn this episode of Star Wars Generations, hosts Matthew and Erin dive into the Ryloth arc (episodes "Storm Over Ryloth," "Innocents of Ryloth," and "Liberty on Ryloth") from the first season of Star Wars: The Clone Wars. Rather than doing a complete rewatch, they're focusing on their favorite episodes from each season, sharing perspectives across different generations of Star Wars fans.Erin chose the Ryloth arc, which focuses on the Republic's attempt to liberate the Twi'lek homeworld from Separatist occupation. The hosts break down the three-episode storyline, examining how each episode builds upon different aspects of war – from space battles to ground assaults to the civilian impact.What lessons does Ahsoka learn about command?The hosts discuss how "Storm Over Ryloth" shows Ahsoka Tano's early leadership struggles when she disobeys orders during a space battle, resulting in lost clone trooper lives. Matthew and Erin analyze how this mirrors Anakin Skywalker's own leadership style and foreshadows later character development. They debate whether the Jedi's approach to military command shows their fundamental unsuitability for wartime leadership.How does "Innocents of Ryloth" show the human side of clone troopers?Erin explains why "Innocents of Ryloth" resonates so deeply with her. The story follows clone troopers Waxer and Boil as they encounter a young Twi'lek girl named Numa. The episode showcases the clones' humanity beyond their military purpose, with Waxer's immediate compassion contrasting with Boil's initial reluctance. This connection becomes even more poignant when listeners learn that Waxer appears later in the series during the Battle of Umbara.What political themes emerge in the Ryloth liberation storyline?Matthew highlights how the Ryloth arc explores the complex political reality of war, where planets and their people become caught between opposing forces. The hosts discuss the conflict between Twi'lek freedom fighter Cham Syndulla (father of Rebels character Hera Syndulla) and Senator Orn Free Taa, examining how this storyline shows that not all Republic-aligned characters have the best interests of their people at heart.Other topics discussed include:Rose Tico's famous quote from The Last Jedi ("We don't win by fighting what we hate, we win by saving what we love") and how it connects to the clone troopers' mission on RylothSeparatist leader Wat Tambor's portrayal as a calculating villain focused on stealing Ryloth's resourcesHow the storyline foreshadows events in later Star Wars series like Rebels and The Bad BatchThe Clone Wars' consistent examination of how wars impact civilian populations caught in the crossfireNuma's character and her later appearances in Star Wars RebelsClone trooper individuality and personality development through visual and character choicesThe hosts wrap up by teasing next week's episode featuring Alex's picks: "Rookies," "Lair of Grievous," and "Trespass," which will explore a newly knighted Jedi, the Kaleesh cyborg general, and more Clone Wars adventures. **************************************************************************This episode is a production of Star Wars Generations, a The Ethical Panda Podcast and part of the TruStory FM Entertainment Podcast Network. Check our our website to find out more about this and our sister podcast Superhero Ethics.We want to hear from you! You can keep up with our latest news, and send us feedback, questions, or comments via social media or email.Email: Matthew@TheEthicalPanda.comFacebook: TheEthicalPandaInstagram: TheEthicalPandaPodcastsTwitter: EthicalPanda77Or you can join jump into the Star Wars Generations and Superhero Ethics channels on the TruStory FM Discord.To learn more about co-host Erin and her incredible cosplay check out her Instagram, LadyTanoCreates.Want to get access to even more content while supporting the podcast? Become a member! For $5 a month, or $55 a year you get access to bonus episodes and bonus content at the end of most episodes. Sign up on the podcast's main page you can even give membership as a gift!You can also support our podcasts through our sponsors:Purchase a lightsaber from Level Up Sabers run by friend of the podcast Neighborhood Master AlanUse Audible for audiobooks. Sign up for a one year membership or gift one through this link.Purchase any media discussed this week through our sponsored links.