Podcasts about Twi

Dialect of the Akan language

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Best podcasts about Twi

Latest podcast episodes about Twi

HodderPod - Hodder books podcast
MAAME by Jessica George, read by Heather Agyepong - audiobook extract

HodderPod - Hodder books podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 15, 2022 4:46


A blisteringly funny, heartbreaking novel about 20-something British Ghanaian Maddie as she grapples with identity, love, loss and becoming the woman she wants to be—for fans of Chewing Gum, Such a Fun Age and Queenie. Mum calls me Maame. It has many meanings in Twi, but in my case, it means woman. Meet Maddie. To her mostly absent mum, she's Maame, the woman of the family. To her dad, she's his carer—even if he hardly recognises her. To her friends, she's the one who still lives at home, who never puts herself first. It's time to become the woman she wants to be. The kind who wears a bright yellow suit, says yes to after-work drinks and flirts with a 30-something banker. Who doesn't have to Google all her life choices. Who demands a seat at the table. But to put ourselves together, sometimes we have to fall apart.... Heartbreaking, sharply funny and achingly relatable, Maame is an irresistibly fresh coming-of-age story with a heroine you'll never forget.

Running Trizz
EP. 155 - WAVES AT THE PROM (Pac Div's version)

Running Trizz

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 26, 2022 228:53


No Chaperones - - in this episode of the podcast, we discuss the chaos surrounding our high school prom nights full of lies, cheating and manipulation. other topics include how Lo Noel became Prom King, how Twi is transphobic, Freddie Gibbs & Ari Lennox new albums, what Tay-K could have been, how tiktok is cooking our brains (part one), Mary J Blige's debut album, catching deadbeat fathers at barbershops, Druski vs NBA YoungBoy, 5th anniversary of Tyler The Creator's "Flower Boy", how Cuttino Mobley got his groove back, what we did in our 2 month haitus and why you should never take yourself too serious... PROTECT YA NECK - - Text The "Bird Talk" Hotline at (404) 445-4645 to submit a topic Email: RunningTrizz@gmail.comInstagram: @RunningTrizzSupport the show

The Contrarians
166 - Pt. 1 - Breaking Dawn (CC)

The Contrarians

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 22, 2022 60:56


The Twilight Saga comes to an end and, unlike those greedy studio-heads, The Contrarians will cover the wedding, honeymoon, pregnancy, birth, recruitment of other vampires and final battle against The Volturi all in one sitting! Listen as Alex & Julio geek out over every single development and cameo in BREAKING DAWN, a movie that may be rotten on the Tomatometer, but will forever be fresh in every Twi-hard's heart.TIMELINE00:01:16 Breaking Dawn00:09:25 Contrarians Corner- Interested In more Contrarians goodness? Join THE CONTRARIANS SUPPLEMENTS on our Patreon Page! Deleted clips, extended plugs, bonus episodes free from the Tomatometer shackles… It's everything a Contrarians devotee would want!- Contrarians Merch is finally here! Check out our RED BUBBLE MERCH PAGE and buy yourself something nice that's emblazoned with one of our four different designs!- THE FESTIVE YEARS have been letting us use their music for years now and they are amazing. You can check out their work on Spotify, on Facebook or on their very own website.- Hans Rothgiesser, the man behind our logo, can be reached at @mildemonios on Twitter or you can email him at mildemonios@hotmail.com in case you ever need a logo (or comics) produced. And you can listen to him talk about Peruvian politics on his own podcast, NACION COMBI and Peruvian economics on his other podcast, MARGINAL! Aaaaand you can also check out all the stuff he's written on his own website. He has a new book: a fake Peruvian History Textbook called HIZTORIA DEL PERÚ. Ask him about it!

Twisted Listers
Murder Houses Part 2

Twisted Listers

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 14, 2022 51:44


Hey Twisted Listers! This week, join us as we keep soaking up the vibes of this spooky season with a tour of four of the most terrifying and notorious murder houses in the country! Featuring the site of a family's gruesome murder turned into a tourist attraction, a hauntingly hoarded house of vintage housewares left behind after a murder, and a murder-filled mansion in the Hollywood Hills. This Halloween, go visit your local murder house, twisted listeners, but be safe and steer clear of spooky ghosts so you can stay off our lists!!Check out our website! www.twistedlisterspod.comBrought to you by Podmoth Media Network podmoth.networkJoin us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/twistedlistersFollow us on Instagram: @twistedlisterspcastTiktok: @twistedlistersCases Covered:1. The Taliesin House2. The Greystone MansionSources:https://www.greystonemansion.orghttps://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-doheny-murder-20190216-story.htmlhttps://www.history.com/news/the-massacre-at-frank-lloyd-wrights-love-cottagehttps://www.crimemuseum.org/crime-library/famous-murders/taliesin-massacre-frank-lloyd-wright/Support the show

Economy Watch
Inflation impulse grips the US tightly

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 13, 2022 6:32


Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the fight against inflation is making little progress in the US.First up, the American inflation rate fell less than expected in September although the shifts were minor. It came in at 8.3% in August and was expected to fall to 8.1% last month. But in the end it came in at 8.2%. The key takeaway is that they aren't making any progress yet getting it down. Their 'core' rate was unchanged at 6.2% from a year ago. Month-on-month, the rate actually rose.Clearly the Fed has more work to do to change the trajectory, and markets are assuming it will continue to fight inflation as its #1 threat. The next Fed hike is now expected to be another +75 bps. The US Treasury 10yr bond yield roared above 4% on the news, but it has settled back under since.Their benchmark 30 year fixed rate mortgage rose to 6.92% pa, plus points of +0.8%, hitting the 7% mark for the first time in more than 20 years.New US jobless claims rose last week to just under +200,000, a six week high even if historically still very low. But the number of people on these benefits fell to just on 1.2 mln, a new records low. Their insured unemployment rate is now down to under 0.8% of their 155 mln employed workforce, the lowest ever in a record that goes back more than 50 years.The US Congressional Budget Office says the American federal budget deficit was -US$1.377 tln in fiscal year 2022, about half of prior year's deficit of -US$2.776 tln. They say tax revenues were +21% higher and outlays were -8% lower than they were in the 2021 fiscal year. That means the 2022 deficit came in at -5.6% of US GDP, far lower than the prior two disastrous Trump years of -14.9% and -11.9% of GDP. They expect the much better economic management will continue. One direct echo of the high US CPI data was heard in Japan. Their currency fell to a 32 year low, and markets are assuming their central bank will act again to restrict the devaluation.In Japan, producer prices rose to a five month high, rising +9.7% in September from a year ago, and blowing past the market consensus of +8.8%. This was the 19th straight month of producer inflation and the highest since April. Elevated commodity prices made worse by the yen's rapid decline drove the rise. Given that Japan is the world's third largest economy, on a global scale this data is pretty significant.Later today we are expecting both consumer and producer price data from China. There the changes are expected to be modest and low, primarily because their economy is in a stall, held back by pandemic lockdowns that seem to be spreading.Just how hard the domestic economy is suffering can be seen from Chinese excavator sales data for September. They were down almost -25% from a year ago, but export sales rose almost +75% over the same period.China's lockdowns, as grim as they are, might have more public-health sense than we give them credit for. Bloomberg is pointing out that since emerging in late 2021, the highly transmissible Omicron strain of SARS-CoV-2 has splintered into a dazzling array of subvariants that are now driving fresh waves of cases around the world. The proliferation of such a diversity of variants is unprecedented, and pits numerous hyper-mutated iterations against each other in a race for global dominance. That's turbo-charged Covid, making it one of the fastest-spreading diseases known to humanity, and further challenging pandemic-mitigation efforts in a global population already weary of frequent booster shots, testing and masking. An un-locked-down China would face an enormous public health threat.In Australia, their October inflation expectation rate came in at 5.4%, unchanged from September. It been moderating since June, so "consumer expectations therefore appear to be responding to significantly tighter monetary policy", they say.One place you can see a sharp response is in the sales of new homes. They home building lobby group says new home sales declined by 15.7% in the three months to September, compared to the previous quarter. That is quite a pullback.Globally, freight rates for containerised cargoes are still falling fast, especially in the China trade (Shanghai to Los Angeles was down -13% in a week). They were down another -6% last week alone and are now much lower than five-year average rates. Bulk cargo rates slipped as well.And we should note that in Victoria, people in several towns have been told to leave immediately as swollen rivers threaten communities in what authorities have called a “significant flood emergency”.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.94% and up +4 bps since this time yesterday. (At one brief point earlier it hit 4.06%). The price of gold will open today at US$1665/oz. This is down another -US$6 from this time yesterday.And oil prices start today +US$1.50 firmer than this time yesterday at just on US$88/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$93.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar will open today at 56.3 USc and a +¼c higher than this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are firmer too at 89.5 AUc. Against the euro we are a little softer at 57.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 66.9 and unchanged.The bitcoin price is now at US$19,149 and a mere +0.3% firmer than this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has however been moderate at just +/- 2.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Economy Watch
UK financial markets suffer strange own-goal

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 12, 2022 4:42


Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news markets remain glued to the car-crash that is happening in UK financial markets, even if the global implications are limited.Separately, US mortgage applications fell -2.1% last week in an extended downward trend. They are a massive -40% lower than the same week a year ago. That is largely because mortgage interest rates keep on rising, topping 6.8% last week and the highest since 2006.The American producer price index went up +0.4%in September from August, the first increase in three months. Year-on-year it is up +8.5% which is a lesser rise than for August.The release of the US Fed minutes, always keenly awaited, has brought no ructions in financial markets today, so far at least. The document itself reveals that their policy makers have judged that the cost of too little action outweighs costs of too much - the American version of a 'least regrets' policy.Japan's machinery orders had their biggest single-month fall in six months in August, falling almost -10% from July even though they are up almost +3% from the same month in 2021. The global economic slowdown and a weaker yen both are weighing on local corporate spending now.Japanese machine tool orders rose again in September however, up +4.3% from a year ago and up +8.2% from August. Export demand remains quite positive for this leading sector.The Korean central bank raised its base rate by +50 bps to 3.0% yesterday, matching market estimates. High inflation and a weakening currency are burdening their economy. This was the 8th increase in borrowing costs since the Bank of Korea lifted the base rate for the first time in August 2021.China is solely fixated on their Party Congress this week. One good thing is that air quality has improved in Beijing as steelmakers shut down to ensure blue skies for the event.In Hong Kong, they are straining to maintain its local currency peg to the US dollar. The city's de facto central bank has intervened dozens of times since May as the Hong Kong dollar hit the weak end of its HK$7.75 to HK$7.85 trading band on an increasingly hawkish US Fed..In India, August industrial production data delivered an unwelcome surprise. It fell -0.8% when a +1.7% rise was expected. This is a very large miss.Indian CPI inflation rates rose in September, according to official data, and are now running at 7.4%. It is the third month where it has risen and is back to levels they had in 2020.In the UK, turmoil in their financial markets has intensified after the Bank of England insisted its emergency bond-buying scheme would come to an end this week. The cost of their government borrowing over 10 years briefly surged to its highest level since 2008, as investors demanded enhanced returns to lend to a country now in a bad financial and trust crisis.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.90% and up +1 bp since this time yesterday. The price of gold will open today at US$1671/oz. This is down -US$10 from this time yesterday.And oil prices start today down another -US$2.50 from this time yesterday at just under US$86.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price has fallen a bit more to be just over US$91/bbl.The Kiwi dollar will open today at 56 USc and -½c lower than this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are another +¼c higher at 89.3 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 57.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 66.9 and down about -20 bps.The bitcoin price is now at US$19,099 and only -0.4% lower than this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just +/- 0.7%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Economy Watch
IMF warns global economy will get much tougher

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 11, 2022 4:38


Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the IMF is warning the worst of the current economic turmoil is yet to come.However first in the US, retail sales last week on a same store basis fell away noticeably from the same week a year ago. Inflation can barely explain the 'growth' in this latest survey.But American consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead moderated again for a third consecutive month, now at 5.4% in September, the lowest in a year, and down from 5.7% in August. The long-run average inflation expectation is 3% so there is still a long way to go to get these down from elevated levels, but five-year-ahead expectations are only 2.2% pa. Their median home price growth expectations declined marginally to just 2%, its lowest reading since June 2020. And expectations for the cost of medical care is also seen slowing but to a still-high 9.2%. On the other hand, consumers expect prices to rise faster for petrol.US central bank policies do seem to be working on getting these expectations reset. But consumers remain unhappy with them (which is par for the course). Nobody likes their medicine, even when it seems to be working.In China, their September data shows they pumped out a lot of bank debt to support their economy, in fact twice as much as analysts were expecting and a new record high. This comes as authorities are supporting a slowing economy that is being hit by a property crisis and an unfortunate resurgence of pandemic cases.In the UK they too are pumping out vast additions of central bank support as their financial crisis extends.In Australia, business sentiment fell in September even as business conditions improved. The NAB business confidence index fall was the lowest reading since June, amid concerns over rising interest rates and a gloomy global outlook. Sentiment fell in retail, wholesale, transport, recreation & personal services, and finance, business & property sectors. Meantime, business conditions rose, being above their pre-COVID peak, with sales surging while both profitability and employment were unchanged but stayed elevated.The IMF says the world's economy is seen expanding +3.2% (real) this year, in line with its July forecast, but expects it to grow at a slower +2.7% in 2023, down from 2.9% earlier predicted, according to their latest update of their World Economic Outlook. All this while global inflation is expected to run at a massive +8.8% this year. The 2022 forecast is actually a brave position to take given what others are suggesting. But even they say, "In short, the worst is yet to come, and for many people 2023 will feel like a recession." China's stumbles are a key headwind for the global economy, they say.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.89% and unchanged again. The price of gold will open today at US$1681/oz. This is up +US$13 from this time yesterday.And oil prices start today down -US$2.50 from this time yesterday at just under US$88.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price has fallen a bit more to be just over US$93.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar will open today at 56.5USc and a full +1c higher than this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are +¼c higher at 89.1 AUc. Against the euro we are +½c higher at 57.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 67.1 and up about +90 bps.The bitcoin price is now at US$19,169 and a mere -0.1% lower than this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.3%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Economy Watch
OECD warns against bracket creep

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 10, 2022 4:27


Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news wars and holidays are the features of today's roundup.First up today, it is a Federal holiday in the US, Columbus Day (which is morphing into Indigenous Peoples' Day in a growing number of States and communities). But many businesses there don't treat it as a day-off - and that includes the stock exchanges.Nor the currency markets of course, and the US Dollar is rising again and at a 20 year high. It is now +20% higher than a year ago. This is a sharp headwind against the on-shoring movement which is happening due to logistics pressures. It is also a sharp headwind against profits of American companies that have substantial international operations. It will only help countries hurt by a rising greenback if the domestic US economy stays healthy and imports more. So far, that has been the case. The domestic US economy remains the engine of the global economy.In Canada, it is their Thanksgiving Day holiday.In Ukraine, Russia is lashing out with indiscriminate bombing of population centers, using terror tactics in reaction for its invasion failures. This angry change is driving up the cost of wheat, with worries that that Russia could suspend the safe grain trade corridor from Ukrainian Black Sea ports that was agreed to in an UN-brokered deal. Prices have risen +15% in a month.In England, their central bank expanded its support of pension funds at the heart of their bond-market crisis even as borrowing costs jumped. It is a clear sign that stress in the British financial system isn't going away.In Sweden, they handed out the Nobel Prize in Economics to, among others, Ben Bernanke, the former US Fed boss. It is for research he did in helping build policy responses that protect jobs in economic crises. They were used widely in the 2020 pandemic emergency.In Australia, the AiGroup services PMI fell rather sharply, from a moderate expansion (53.3) to a contraction (48). The increasingly uncertain economic environment is dragging on their service industries. All services activity indicators have worsened in the last month. Lower consumer and business confidence following repeated interest rate rises and persistent inflation were major factors in the fall-off. The indicators for sales, new orders, and selling prices all fell, while input prices continued their upward march adding to inflationary pressures which is boosting nominal turnover levels.And staying in Australia, the OECD's chief economist has come out in favour of their Stage 3 tax cuts going ahead, on the basis that they will tackle the issue of bracket creep. He told the ABC. “This is important. High inflation means that people are getting pushed to high-income brackets even when the real income does not warrant that,” he said.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.89% and unchanged.The price of gold will open today at US$1668/oz. This is down -US$27 from this time yesterday.And oil prices start today down -US$1.50 from this time yesterday at just on US$91/bbl in the US while the international Brent price has risen to be just under US$96.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar will open today at 55.6 USc and a -½c lower from this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are marginally firmer at 88.3 AUc. Against the euro we are -¼c softer at 57.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 66.2 and down about -30 bps.The bitcoin price is now at US$19,154 and -1.8% lower than this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.0%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Economy Watch
China now a global handbrake

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 9, 2022 7:10


Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news China has become the handbrake on the global economy now, delivering a string of weak economic data.And, first up there has been something of a surprise from the Middle Kingdom. The Caixin China General Services PMI plunged to a minor contraction in September after a solid-to-good expansion in August. This was the first contraction in services activity since May, and came as the amid the severity of the COVID outbreaks in many areas across the mainland built. It was however a faster retreat than was expected. New orders shrank for the first time in four months; while employment dropped for the ninth month running, with the rate of job shedding the steepest pace since May and backlogs grew for the second month in a row. Export orders expanded slightly, however, following an improvement in some foreign markets.The private Caixin result comes after the official services PMI also fell but was recording a small expansion still in September. It has been a while since the Caixin results have reported worse levels of activity than the official surveys.China's week-long holiday is ending and it is clear many people were staying at home this year. Travel data reflects that with activity down -36% compared to last year - which itself wasn't a strong event either.And residential real estate sales have often been strong in this period too, but early reports suggest they could be -38% lower this year than the same period a year ago.China's foreign exchange reserves were expected to fall to US$3 tln in September, a -US$55 bln retreat. But they didn't actually fall that hard, only declining -US$26 bln to US$3.029 tln.Taiwanese exports dived in September, down -5.3% when a +1.5% rise was expected. This is a big and maybe important miss.The giant US economy added more jobs than expected in September even if the gain was the lowest in 18 months. The headline gain was +263,000 when a +250,000 gain was expected. Holding it back was a -41,000 fall in Government workers. Apparently schools are finding it very difficult to recruit teachers in the charged political environments in many communities. But as regular readers will know, we also look at the raw data that is not seasonally adjusted. That shows overall payrolls rose +431,000 in September and taking the paid workforce to 153 mln.The jobless rate fell to 3.5%. Their participation rate rose to 62.3%. Average weekly earnings rose +4.8% pa but at a +7.8% pace in September from August.By any measure this represents a tight American jobs market. And the US central bank will know it can keep targeting inflation on the back of a resilient labour market that shows no sign of being hurt by that press. In fact the 'real' +431,000 rise in employment will bring even more spending impetus to the American economy. Rising wages do to. So the Fed isn't easing up on the rate rises any time soon.The prospect of another +75 bps hike has equity and bond markets retreating as they revalue their asset holding to reflect the lower P/E ratios this implies.Data out on American consumer debt shows that it grew by +US$32 bln in August from July, a much faster +8.3% pa rate than was expected. American now owe US$4.7 tln in this type of debt, or 21% of their annual economic activity (GDP).This coming week will start the Q3 earnings season reports. It is expected to be a pretty lackluster affair, with expected earnings gains to be only +2.2% overall, down from the Q2 +9.9% reported. Tech sector earnings are expected to be even lower at under +1%. That means equity market news is expected to be dominated by as many underachievers as overachievers and that will depress market enthusiasm and momentum over the coming three weeks.In Canada, they also delivered a positive employment report, a bounce-back in September from their August slip. They added both full- and part-time jobs with their participation rate rising to 64.7%, wages rising +5.2% pa, and their jobless rate falling to 5.2% which is 'average' for them, but it is below pre-pandemic levels.German retail sales fell -4.3% in 'real' terms in August, the retreat they were expecting. In nominal terms, like every other country reports, they rose +5.4% due to the effects of inflation.In Switzerland, Credit Suisse has come under scrutiny in recent weeks as investors speculate over its financial health. But it has initiated an almost US$5 bln share buy-back to bolster its claim that fears are overblown. From this and other actions, the markets have responded with a sharp +23% rise in its share price recently. In CHF its a +16% rise.The crisis of high and rising food prices seems to have passed - well, passed its extreme levels anyway. Overall prices are almost back to year-ago levels now with another but smaller retreat in September. However, year-ago levels were high on an historic basis, but the trend is now lower. Dairy and meat prices are generally holding. It is a sharp retreat in vegetable oil prices that is driving overall prices lower. Bothe Canada and Australia are having outsized production years, helping the situation significantly.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.89% and up another +1 bps from this time Saturday. The price of gold will open today at US$1695/oz. This is down -US$5 from this time Saturday.And oil prices start today up +US$1 from this time Saturday at just under US$92.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price has risen to be just under US$98/bbl.The Kiwi dollar will open today at 56.1 USc and a bit softer from this time Saturday. Against the Australian dollar we are little-changed at 88.1 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 57.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 66.6 and little-changed.The bitcoin price is now at US$19,508 and a very marginal +0.3% above this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/- 0.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Economy Watch
Market gloomy ahead of US jobs report

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 6, 2022 5:40


Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news we are ending the week waiting in a risk-off mood where commodity currencies like the NZD are being hit ahead of the key US jobs report and inflation-averse central bank officials.Last week there were +167,000 new jobless claims in the US, a small rise, leaving 1.229 mln people on these benefits, and remaining near an all-time low level.Separately, almost -30,000 job cuts were reported for September, and even though it is a three month high it is only a very small rise in the context of the size of their labour force (153 mln).Labour market data is front-of-mind in markets today because we are awaiting the September non-farm payrolls report which will be released this time tomorrow. It is expected to report an expansion of +250,000 new jobs, and more for private-sector payrolls.China may be on holiday, but they remain active in international bodies. They have successfully convinced the UN Human Rights Council ((UNHCR) to not debate (even talk about) Xinjiang abuses, and it is not the first time their views have prevailed. It reinforces the fact that most UN countries are not democracies, and are increasingly siding with anti-democratic forces. As the lender of choice for many countries over the past decade, Beijing now has the power to cut them off, lend more or forgive some of their debts. Debt is a powerful weapon.It can cut both ways. Overseas money continues to flow out of Chinese stocks and bonds as a rapidly cooling economy and interest rate shifts drive investment to other destinations. Foreign investors' holdings of Chinese bonds fell for a seventh straight month in August, dropping by -US$150 bln to NZ$870 bln. This bond market outflow, the biggest in data going back to 2015, comes as the world's second-largest economy suffers a dramatic loss of momentum.EU retail sales came in weak. These are reported on a volume basis, ignoring the effect of inflation, and they were down -1.3% from the same month a year ago. Germany led the fall; they held little-changed in many other larger countries in the blocGerman factory orders fell sharply in August in new data out overnight. They were down a troubling -2.4% from July, down -4.1% from the same month a year ago.But neither data stopped Germans buying new cars. They rose +14% in September, driven by a rush to buy EVs. The move away from ICE to EV cars is a very fast-developing worldwide trend, a transition happening very much faster than anyone predicted.Overall, the IMF is gloomy about the global economy's prospects in their October assessment.Global passenger air travel seems to be recovering very strongly. August international travel volumes are more than double the level of a year ago and are now at 80% of their pre-pandemic levels. Asia-Pacific levels are lagging however because of Chinese restrictions. Elsewhere, it is in full recovery mode.Global air cargo volumes dipped in August, but are being called 'resilient' because they are only -3% lower than pre-pandemic levels. Cargo volumes in Europe are the laggard here. In the circumstances, this is actually a positive report; trade is holding up.There were more big falls in shipping freight rates for containers by sea last week, down another -8% in the week alone and putting the spotlight firmly on the struggling trade to and from China. Overall, these freight rates are now lower than the five-year average pre-pandemic. That is a very fast retreat, down -68% in a year.Meanwhile freight rates for bulk cargoes are rising and at two month highs, and while they are far lower than year ago levels, they are running at about pre-pandemic levels.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.81% and up another +5 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will open today at US$1712/oz. This is down -US$3 from this time yesterday.And oil prices start today unchanged from yesterday at just under US$87.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price has risen to be just on US$93.50/bbl. The OPEC announcement of a sharp supply cut seems to have had little price impact so far - which is somewhat surprising. Analysts are still expecting that to happen, but it is interesting that markets aren't pricing it in.The Kiwi dollar will open today at 56.6 USc and another -½c lower than this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are unchanged at 88.2 AUc. Against the euro we are a tad softer at 57.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 66.9, and -30 bps lower than this time yesterday.The bitcoin price is now at US$20,087 and down -0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest again at just under +/- 1.4%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Economy Watch
OPEC slashes output to bid up prices - version 2

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 5, 2022 4:50


This is a second version of this podcast correcting a bad upload earlier.--------------------Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news OPEC has sided with Russia and approved an outsized production cut of 2 mln bbd in a bid to raise oil prices sharply.But first, the US services sector continues to expand at a healthy clip, according to the widely-watched ISM survey for September. New order flows remain strong. This was enough to cause bond yields to rise. However the ISM survey was a much more positive survey than the internationally-benchmarked Markit one which says the sector is improving but not really expanding.We get a US non-farm payrolls report on Saturday and the expectation is that another +250,000 new jobs will have been created in September. Today the ADP Employment Report said their survey points to +208,000 new private sector jobs. They see the US services sector expanding at a moderate pace, but the manufacturing sector shedding jobs at a minor pace.Last week, American mortgage applications resumed their downward track, mainly because mortgage interest rates continue to push higher. Their benchmark 30 year fixed rate is now up to 6.75% plus points, its highest level in sixteen years.The US trade deficit is also on a lower track. It came in at -US$67.4 bln in August in data out today, and its lowest since May 2021. Exports are holding but imports are falling.Interestingly, the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now real time monitoring suggests that American economic activity has been picking up to a healthy +3% pa rate over the past few weeks.Canada reported a smaller trade surplus for August, at about half its expected level. In their case, exports fell more than imports.But Canada also reported building permit levels for August and they were very much higher than expected, driven by multi-family unitsJapan reported its September service sector activity and that improved to a good expansion after a brief dip in August.Australia reported a small rise in retail sales in August from July, but not by enough to be more than inflation. However, year-on-year it is, with this retail activity up more than +19% on that basis. The August result would have been better if sales in Victoria and Queensland had been better, and if clothing and cars had been better. Outside of those, the August expansion was pretty good, especially for household goods and department store retailing.And Australian regulator ASIC is suing Harvey Norman and Latitude Finance for promoting “no deposit” and “interest-free” payment methods that saddled some customers with an extra $537 in fees.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.76% and up +13 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will open today at US$1715/oz. This is down -US$7 from this time yesterday.And oil prices start today up +US$1.50 from yesterday at just under US$87.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price has risen to be just over US$93/bbl.OPEC+ (which includes Russia) made deep cuts to its oil output targets, double what was expected, curbing supply in an already tight market despite pressure from the United States and others to pump more. The US is especially unhappy with the size of the cut. This cut is spurring a rise in oil prices that have dropped from US$120 three months ago.The Kiwi dollar will open today at 57.1 USc and nearly -½c lower than where we that this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are soft at 88.2 AUc. Against the euro we are firm at 57.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 67.2, and little-changed since this time yesterday.The bitcoin price is now at US$20,274 and up another +1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

BURNING ISSUES
Burning Issues

BURNING ISSUES

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 5, 2022 110:06


Review and analysis of pertinent national issues in Twi

Economy Watch
OPEC slashes output to bid up prices

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 5, 2022 4:50


Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news OPEC has sided with Russia and approved an outsized production cut of 2 mln bbd in a bid to raise oil prices sharply.But first, the US services sector continues to expand at a healthy clip, according to the widely-watched ISM survey for September. New order flows remain strong. This was enough to cause bond yields to rise. However the ISM survey was a much more positive survey than the internationally-benchmarked Markit one which says the sector is improving but not really expanding.We get a US non-farm payrolls report on Saturday and the expectation is that another +250,000 new jobs will have been created in September. Today the ADP Employment Report said their survey points to +208,000 new private sector jobs. They see the US services sector expanding at a moderate pace, but the manufacturing sector shedding jobs at a minor pace.Last week, American mortgage applications resumed their downward track, mainly because mortgage interest rates continue to push higher. Their benchmark 30 year fixed rate is now up to 6.75% plus points, its highest level in sixteen years.The US trade deficit is also on a lower track. It came in at -US$67.4 bln in August in data out today, and its lowest since May 2021. Exports are holding but imports are falling.Interestingly, the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now real time monitoring suggests that American economic activity has been picking up to a healthy +3% pa rate over the past few weeks.Canada reported a smaller trade surplus for August, at about half its expected level. In their case, exports fell more than imports.But Canada also reported building permit levels for August and they were very much higher than expected, driven by multi-family unitsJapan reported its September service sector activity and that improved to a good expansion after a brief dip in August.Australia reported a small rise in retail sales in August from July, but not by enough to be more than inflation. However, year-on-year it is, with this retail activity up more than +19% on that basis. The August result would have been better if sales in Victoria and Queensland had been better, and if clothing and cars had been better. Outside of those, the August expansion was pretty good, especially for household goods and department store retailing.And Australian regulator ASIC is suing Harvey Norman and Latitude Finance for promoting “no deposit” and “interest-free” payment methods that saddled some customers with an extra $537 in fees.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.76% and up +13 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will open today at US$1715/oz. This is down -US$7 from this time yesterday.And oil prices start today up +US$1.50 from yesterday at just under US$87.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price has risen to be just over US$93/bbl.OPEC+ (which includes Russia) made deep cuts to its oil output targets, double what was expected, curbing supply in an already tight market despite pressure from the United States and others to pump more. The US is especially unhappy with the size of the cut. This cut is spurring a rise in oil prices that have dropped from US$120 three months ago.The Kiwi dollar will open today at 57.1 USc and nearly -½c lower than where we that this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are soft at 88.2 AUc. Against the euro we are firm at 57.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 67.2, and little-changed since this time yesterday.The bitcoin price is now at US$20,274 and up another +1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Economy Watch
Markets like tamer data

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 4, 2022 5:20


Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the heat is going out of some of the global pressure points - and equity markets like that.But first there was a dairy auction overnight, and not an especially good one. Overall prices were down -3.5% in USD terms and down -1.2% in NZD terms. Leading the fall was WMP with a -4.0% fall. We are lucky we have a depreciating currency because that has limited the retreat. There was also a large retreat in the butter price (-7.0%), but every component fell. This was a surprise in terms of the signals from the derivatives market, but the intervening Pulse events have signalled that WMP might be soft, and it was. This events decline ended the prior two price rises. Overall prices are back to where they were in August.American retail sales last week rose to be +12.3% higher than the same week a year ago. This data is on a same-store basis and is the strongest result since the end of August. Some of this increase will be inflation of course, but not all of it.Meanwhile, pressure on the US job market seems to be easing. The number of job openings there dropped to 10.1 million in August, the lowest since June 2021. That is down from a downwardly revised 11.2 million in July. The all-time record level of 11.9 million was in March 2022.As expected, new orders for US manufactured goods were flat in August from the prior month following a -1.0% fall in July on that basis. Excluding aircraft orders, there was a small rise, but it was orders for consumables that were the strongest. Year-on-year these overall orders are up +12.8%.The American logistics LMI rose in September, but that isn't necessarily a positive signal. It was fueled by high levels of inventory and the associated levels of cost and utilisation holding them. On the other hand, transportation metrics continue their slowed pace.In Europe, new September data out overnight shows that pressure on producer prices there isn't letting up, rising an extreme +5% in the month to be +43% higher than a year ago. These are higher level than they recorded in August.Late yesterday, the Aussie central bank turned dovish, raising their policy rate by only +25 bps when markets expected a full +50 bps rise. Only +25 bps is priced in at present for their November review. But markets now expect them to keep raising their rate well into 2023. Their new current policy rate is 2.60%. Markets now expect that to top out at 3.50% in the middle of next year. That is now a much longer hiking cycle that previously expected.Aussie building consents raced higher in August on the back of a strong recovery in consents for rental apartment buildings. It was a much more aggressive rise than anyone expected.Meanwhile, housing finance fell in August. Mortgage approvals are now almost -20% below their peak at the start of the year. This latest data on turnover and prices, available up to September, points to more weakening to come. Later this morning, we will report on the Barfoot's September sales results. These come after CoreLogic pointed out the fall in prices nationwide is gathering steam. And this afternoon, the RBNZ will announce its decision on the OCR level. It is widely expected to rise +50 bps to 3.50%.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.63% and down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will open today at US$1722/oz. This is up another +US$30 from this time yesterday to a three week high.And oil prices start today up +US$3 from yesterday at just under US$86/bbl in the US while the international Brent price has risen to be just under US$91.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar will open today at 57.5 USc and nearly +½c higher than where we that this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are up +¾c at 88.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -¾c at 57.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 67.2, and little-changed since this time yesterday morning.The bitcoin price is now at US$19,998 and up +2.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Economy Watch
Markets try to look forward positively

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 3, 2022 4:12


Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news markets are looking forward positively today, putting behind it a Q3 that had its issues.First however, later today the RBA will advise its latest rate review and tomorrow the RBNZ will do the same. That means there is a pre-release shadow over local interest rate markets ahead of those announcements. Both central banks are expected to add +50 bps to their policy rates although that is less certain for Australia.Meanwhile, markets are more chipper today with the end of the quarter behind it. Equity markets have opened Q4 in a positive mood. Perhaps strong progress by Ukraine in defending itself is helping. However the data coming through for Q3 isn't so bullish.In the US, the widely-watched ISM factory PMI sagged much more than expected to be barely expanding. New orders, including new export orders were the weak spot. Labour is still tight however, although price pressures are easing quickly.There was also the internationally-benchmarked Markit PMI for the US out as well, the final September version, and that was more upbeat recording a stable expansion. In this one, production and new orders rose, albeit only marginally, input cost inflation eased further as some inputs fell in price, and employment growth was the fastest since March.This one ties into a global set which is much less impressive with business optimism sinking to a 28-month low.In Japan, they are still expanding but the trend is down with new orders and output falling.We already reported that China's factory sector was shrinking in September. And now we can add that Taiwan is going backwards too with output and sales falling at their quickest rates since May 2020.In India, their expansion continues at a good, healthy pace.In Europe, their manufacturing sector downturn accelerated in September as demand tumbled further and price pressures intensified.Social media is making a mess of globally systemic banking giant Credit Suisse's reputation, suggesting it is about to be the 2022 equivalent of Lehman Bros. The real fear is that rumours might become self-fulfilling. Those fears were given credence by their CEO who wrote a staff memo saying the bank was at a "critical moment" which fed the rumour mill. But it appears he was 'only' referring to a major organisational shakeup within the bank.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.65% and down -18 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will open today at US$1692/oz. This is up +US$31 from this time yesterday.And oil prices start today up +US$3.50 from yesterday at just under US$83/bbl in the US while the international Brent price has risen to be just over US$88.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar will open today at 57.1 USc more than +1c higher than where we that this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are little-changed at 87.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +¾c at 58.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 67.3, and up +100 bps since this time yesterday morning.The bitcoin price is now at US$19,470 and up +1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Economy Watch
Instability builds

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 2, 2022 7:07


Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the string of losses and instability is building - just at the RBA and RBNZ meet to to review their OCR settings.As something of a canary, private equity deals are failing to get funded now. You can't do a leveraged buyout without the debt, and financing markets are seizing up. Certainly banks are much less willing to do the debt part of these deals. More than US$1 tln in these deals were done in 2021, and 2022 started strong. But now markets are repricing valuations and that undercuts deals in process. Investors no longer agree the price-to-earnings ratios that private equity is pitching. Some icon deals being promoted are failing. Further, many private equity portfolio companies will be facing cost pressures they can't pass on to customers. High-cost leverage can push weak businesses into a critical condition. Expect to see some big-time collapses and value-destruction. Some will be very public. Failures will raise the price of debt for others in similar situations.However first in Japan, new official data shows that last week, their government spent about NZ$34 bln intervening in the foreign exchange market to prop up the yen. It worked but it drained nearly 15% of funds it has readily available for these types of interventions (meaning they have about NZ$225 bln left in these reserves which doesn't seem a lot for the world's third largest economy).Japanese industrial production surged unexpectedly in August to be +5.1% higher than a year ago, its best non-pandemic result since 2014.Meanwhile Japanese retail sales rose by +4.1% in August from a year ago, exceeding market consensus of +2.8% and following a +2.4% gain a month earlier.In China, there were PMIs released late yesterday. The official factory PMI reports a very slight improvement to a steady state (neither expanding not contracting). But the private Caixin version has it going the other way, a growing contraction.The official release also included data on their services sector and that was negative, falling from a modest expansion in July to no expansion in August. That is the third straight month of a decrease in their services expansion.This coming "Golden Week" isn't going to generate any travel-induced activity. Authorities are warning everyone to stay put during the week. Some cities are even putting their whole community into a lockdown again.And in an ominous sign, ocean carriers are cancelling dozens of sailings on the world's busiest routes including Chine to the US West Coast during what is normally their peak season, the latest sign of the economic weakness hitting companies as inflation weighs on global trade and consumer spending.Hong Kong retail sales were reported for August, and they weren't flash, falling -2.9% year-on-year.And staying in Hong Kong, Bloomberg is reporting that the value of Chinese firms listed there has sunk -14% to their lowest valuation on record. They are now trading at just 60% of their book value, the cheapest ever.Investors may shifting funds back to the US in a risk-off flow, but not all funds are flowing that way. The rush out of China also is seeing investment move to Vietnam - and India.India reviewed its policy interest rate late on Friday and as expected it raised it by +50 bps to 4.9%.In the US, the inflation measure the Federal Reserve takes note of, the PCE, slipped in August from July to be +6.2% higher than a year ago. But the "core" result rose slightly to 4.9% and "stubbornly high". Personal income rose again at the expected rate, but personal spending rose faster than expected.US petrol prices have stopped falling, still at about US$3.80/gallon as a national average and stable for the past month - and still +20% higher than a year ago.The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey has stayed very low, even if it did rise marginally from July.In Europe, German reported that its labour force didn't grow in August, the first time in 18 months that this has happened. They also said the numbers out of work fell by -125,000 and their jobless rate stayed at just 3.0% of their 44 mln labour force.Meanwhile the EU said its overall inflation rate rose to +10.0% in September. German inflation was higher at +10.9% whereas French inflation was at 6.2% which was about the lowest of the larger countries in the block.European Union countries agreed to impose emergency taxes on energy firms' windfall profits, and began talks on their next move to tackle Europe's energy crunch - possibly a bloc-wide oil and gas price cap.In Australia, their Productivity Commission is reminding policymakers that first home buyer subsidies push up housing values is counter-productive and doesn't make home ownership more affordable. "This money would be better spent preventing homelessness", they say.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.83% and unchanged from this time Saturday. A week ago it was at 3.70%. The price of gold will open today at US$1661/oz. This is down -US$1 from this time Saturday but up +US$20 from this time last week.And oil prices start today unchanged from Saturday at just over US$79.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price has risen to be just under US$85.50/bbl. These levels are similar to where we were at last week and eight month lows. Natural gas prices are still falling. OPEC is reported to be considering a big production cut in an attempt to prop up prices.The Kiwi dollar will open today at just under 56 USc more than -1c lower than where we ended on Friday and back to a 13 year low (pandemic excepted). Against the Australian dollar we are unchanged at 87.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down at 57.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just 66.3, and down -160 bps in a week. That is an 11 year low (also pandemic excepted).The bitcoin price is now at US$19,197 and down -3.0% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.9%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Economy Watch
Global economy working through some huge shifts

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 29, 2022 5:37


Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the momentum building to avoid Russian oil and gas supplies is now starting to be quite impressive.But first, American jobless claims last week were a very low +156,000 taking the total number of people on these benefit to just 1.225 mln and the lowest level ever recorded and half what it was this time last year (which was also historically low). Labour market pressure in the US remains very high.Going the other way, American mortgage interest rates are rising fast. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed to 6.7% this week, the highest since July 2007, up from 6.29% last week and 3.01% a year ago. That's according to a survey of lenders by mortgage giant Freddie Mac. Their 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.96%, up from 5.44% last week and 2.28% a year ago.South Korean business confidence fell sharply in August and back to pre-pandemic levels. But to be fair it has been the elevated prior two years that have been unusually positive. The current confidence level is what they were used to from 2004 to 2020.Singapore reported its producer prices rose +17.3% in the year to August, although they slipped slightly from July, so the heat is starting to go out of this surge.In China, they are about to start another Golden Week holiday so data and activity there will be a bit more restrained next week. Their news will tend to be political as the Communist Party holds it two big meetings.But stresses can't be avoided. Investors dumped shares and bonds of Chinese property developers yesterday after a media report that CIFI Holdings had defaulted, adding to worries over the crisis-stricken real estate sector. Their Hong Kong-listed shares plunged 32% to a record low as of the market close yesterday, after credit intelligence provider Reorg reported that the Chinese developer had missed payment on certain non-standard debt. The company itself is remaining staunch.The movement of business out of China is on full display in Vietnam. In the July-September quarter they say their GDP was almost +14% higher than the same quarter a year ago. And that was on top of an almost +8% surge in Q2. Exports to the US are a key driver. But a sharp rise in personal consumption also contributed materially.Germany reported that its September consumer inflation rate touched +10% and is up matching the UK now (on the same basis).And the German government has announced a major energy cost relief plan that could cost up to €200 bln. They are terming it a 'defensive shield' including a petrol price brake and a cut in VAT on the fuel.Meanwhile, Norwegian exports of oil and gas are running at record levels. And China is diverting more fuel to Europe too. Heat pump sales are booming in Europe too, many sourced from China.And Japan and Malaysia have reached a deal for natural gas that would lessen Japan's reliance on Russia.In Australia their Federal Government reported a sharply improved fiscal performance in the year to June 2022. It was a significant positive surprise. And electricity major AGL has sharply brought forward is decommissioning of coal-fired electricity generation. It is a major move there, pressed by activist shareholders.There was another -10% fall in the cost of shipping containers internationally last week. This dive is fast, and takes prices back to just +8% above the porior 5-year average.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.77% and +4 bps firmer than this time yesterday. Wall Street is down sharply today in its Thursday session, with the S&P500 down -2.9% in late trade and slipping into a loss for the week so far. The price of gold will open today at US$1659/oz. This is down a mere -US$1 from this time yesterday.And oil prices start today +50 USc firmer at just over US$82/bbl in the US while the international Brent price has risen to be just on US$88/bbl. The price of natural gas is falling, now at a two month low, as the Europeans make steady progress in building reserves and alternate sources from Russia.The Kiwi dollar will open today at just over 57.1 USc and marginally firmer than this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are firmer at 87.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -½c 58.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just 67.4, and down -20 bps in a day.The bitcoin price is now at US$19,473 and virtually unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.4%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Economy Watch
The UK's "whatever it takes" moment

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 28, 2022 5:01


Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news markets are a lot calmer today and more willing to invest in 'risk'.First, the Bank of England has rushed in a £65 bln bond buying surge to be concentrated over the next two weeks to steady a British economy that has been lashed by some very bad recent policy moves. "The purchases will be carried out on whatever scale is necessary to effect this outcome," they said. It is a move that seems to have calmed markets globally.It comes after both the US authorities and the IMF urged their central bank to act decisively to halt the meltdown that those policy moves had initiated.In the US, mortgage applications resumed their decreasing trend last week after the unusual prior week interruption. And American mortgage interest rates rose above 6.5% for the main 30-year benchmark rate, and that is about as high as it got in the real estate frenzy in the 2006-2008 period before the GFC.American pending home sales fell in August, falling -2% from July to be down a whopping -24% from August a year ago. This fall was the third in a row and rising mortgage rates are getting the blame.The US trade deficit rose in August in its usual seasonal pattern even it the rise wasn't as much as expected. Exports rose more than +21% above the same month a year ago, and imports rose +16% on the same basis. Month-on-month the rises were +2.3% and +4.5% respectively as holiday season goods started their seasonal inflows.Those seasonal flows are making their inventory overhang worse. Wholesale inventories were up another +0.8% in August from July to be more than +25% higher than a year ago. Retail inventories were up +1.9% from July to be almost +22% higher than a year ago. Some of this will be inflation, but despite that, this inventory build is a serious overhang problem that would make any correction worse.In China, their central bank has set the official yuan exchange rate noticeably lower again today, now down to 7.11 to the US dollar. That is a one day devaluation of -0.5% and a devaluation since the start of the month of -3.2%. Half of that has happened over the past four trading days. The central bank has warned against "forex gambling".And staying in China, despite their weather and pandemic challenges, it looks like they will deliver record grain harvest volumes this year. Some southern regions struggled, but others in the north had particularly good results.In Germany, their GfK Consumer Climate Indicator fell sharply again heading into October, hitting a new record low for the fourth straight month and worse than market forecasts. The latest reading highlighted mounting concerns over surging inflation and high energy prices as well as persistent recession fears, with income expectations plummeting to a new record low.Aussie retail sales held up better than expected in August, rising +0.6% from July at an annualised rate of +7.2%. Year on year it was up more than +19% but a weak base affects that comparison. The August rise was also more than markets were expecting (+0.4%).The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.73% and -24 bps lower than this time yesterday in a sharp reversal of recent trends. The price of gold will open today at US$1660/oz. This is up +US$30 from this time yesterday.And oil prices start today +US$3.50 firmer at just under US$81.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price has risen to be just over US$87.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar will open today at just over 57 USc and recovering almost +¾c than this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are little-changed 87.6 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged 58.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just 67.6, and up +40 bps in a day.The bitcoin price is now at US$19,522 and up +1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high again at just on +/- 3.1%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Economy Watch
Fear grows despite positive data

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 27, 2022 5:23


Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news of further chunky benchmark interest rate rises and growing market fear despite much economic data released being generally positive.American durable goods orders slipped in August from July, but less than was anticipated by analysts (-0.4%) and the dip was very minor (-0.2%). They remain +11.2% higher than a year ago. Non-defence capital goods orders were up +6.3% on that same basis.US retail sales as measured on a same store basis rose last week to be +11% higher than a year ago.After declining all year, there was an unexpectedly large surge in sales of new homes in August, rising to an annual rate of 685,000 and far above the +500,000 rate expected. It was particularly notable in the South and West.There was also a better-than-expected improvement in consumer sentiment in September, according to the widely-watched Conference Board survey.Adding to the upbeat data, the Richmond Fed's factory survey in the Mid-Atlantic states came in better than expected too, but it really only recovered the unexpected July drop and new orders are not growing.The US Treasury auctioned a 5 year bond today and that repeated yesterday's outsized rise in yields demanded by bidders. This one was just as large. The tender was very well supported by the median yield was 4.13% and up from 3.15% at the same event a month ago. At some point these much higher interest rates paid will weigh on the US federal deficit, but recall it has been falling at an amazing pace, down from disastrous levels in a very rapid repair.There were a series of other consumer confidence surveys out yesterday. These have increasing importance given the background economic data is wobbling. If consumer sentiment wobbles too, a downbeat future is all-but-certain. In Australia, consumer sentiment is rising in this ANZ-Roy Morgan survey and is now at a four month high. But in the longer-term perspective 'high' might be stretching it. In Taiwan, their consumer sentiment survey slipped slightly in September. In South Korea their consumer sentiment rose and is now well off its July drop.In China, industrial profits were unchanged in August, embedding in a small fall for the first eight months of 2022. Given the sluggish Chinese economy, a fall is consistent with other data. But that they have limited the slippage to just -2.1% is impressive, if true.Meanwhile, the yuan is falling faster against the US dollar. An aggressive pushback by the Chinese central bank is now expected.In The UK, there is a growing and significant trend of mortgage lenders withdrawing loan offers as their real estate market faces a sharp and sudden retreat. Lenders fear borrowers will go underwater quickly in this market leaving them with losses. Major lenders are among those pulling back.And just one day after indicating it wasn't about to move its policy to protect the British Pound, an official at the Bank of England said "significant" policy moves are coming. Markets will remain sceptical until they see action.In Australia, the Optus breach scandal is spreading. It is one that may affect over half their adult population and cause AMT/CFT issues for millions.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.97% and another +8 bps higher than this time yesterday in a continuing push up. It's a new 14 year high again. The price of gold will open today at US$1630/oz. This is up +US$2 from this time yesterday.And oil prices start today +US$1 firmer at just under US$78/bbl in the US while the international Brent price has risen about +US$1.50 to be just under US$84.50/bbl. A Russian gas pipeline to Europe appears to have been sabotaged overnight. Its supply disruption won't have a meaningful impact on their energy crisis however. No word yet who may be responsible, but it wasn't entirely unexpected.The Kiwi dollar will open today at just on 56.3 USc and marginally softer than this time yesterday and still close to the pandemic low and the rate that applied in April 2009. Against the Australian dollar we are firmer at just on 87.7 AUc. Against the euro we are also slightly firmer 58.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just 67.2, and little-changed in a day.The bitcoin price is now at US$19,160 and again up a mere +0.4% from this time yesterday. But in between it did pop up over US$20,000 but could not hold it. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just on +/- 3.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Economy Watch
Global markets under extreme pressure

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 26, 2022 5:28


Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news international bond yields are still rising sharply and the momentum is rising. It is trashing our currency - and although most other currencies are struggling to stay with the greenback, we are doing relatively worse.First today, the global economy has lost momentum in the wake of Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine, which is dragging down growth and putting additional upward pressure on inflation worldwide, according to the OECD's latest Interim Economic Outlook. They now say global economic growth will be a modest +3% this year before slowing further to just +2.2% in 2023. This is well below the pace of economic growth projected prior to the war and represents around -US$2.8 tln of lost economic activity in 2023. Meanwhile in the US, the Chicago Fed's national activity index was unchanged in August, but its July reading was revised higher.But the Dallas Fed factory survey, which was already struggling, fell further in September. Incoming new orders are slowing now. This survey is more heavily weighted to the US oil patch than most other regional surveys there.The Chinese central bank made a surprise announcement yesterday, saying it would raise their required foreign exchange risk reserves to 20% from the current zero. The reserve ratio has been zero since 2020. This announcement marks the latest policy measure to stem the faltering yuan which officially fell below 7 to the US dollar yesterday, following the offshore trading pattern late last week.Japan's factory sector contracted in September according to the latest Markit PMI reading. But their services sector is expanding again in a shift that wasn't expected.Singapore's industrial production rose in August in an improvement that also wasn't expected. The rise wasn't a lot, but signs of improvement are hard to find these days.The mood in the German economy has deteriorated significantly. The ifo business climate index fell to 84.3 points in September, and down sharply from 88.6 points in August. This is the lowest reading since May 2020 and the decline runs through all four sectors of the economy.In Italy, the results of their national elections are still uncertain, but it does look like the far-right Brothers of Italy party will be forming a new government. A real feature of these elections has been a record low 64% voter turnout, allowing an extreme party into power there.A new Eurozone debt crisis is entirely possible.And England's economy seems to be going from bad to worse. Investors have panned their recent policy moves as deeply unstable, and now an attempt by the Bank of England to reassure markets are fallen well short, compounding pressures on them. A US Fed official has weigh in about how bad policy in the UK has some wider implications.In fact, it will probably not only be the UK that starts to raise rates out-of-cycle to contain their problems, this trend might spread. And even if the out-of-cycle trend doesn't spread widely, future benchmark rate hikes could well be super-sized.The RBA and the RBNZ are two central banks making policy decisions over the next week, the RBA on October 4 and the RBNZ on October 5. They will be facing fierce scrutiny this time.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.89% and +20 bps higher than this time yesterday in a new aggressive push up, almost as much in one day as we had all last week (and that was a lot). It's a 12 year high. The price of gold will open today at US$1628/oz. This is down -US$17 from this time yesterday.And oil prices start today -US$1.50 lower at just under US$77/bbl in the US while the international Brent price has fallen about -US$3 to be just over US$83/bbl. These are new eight month lows.The Kiwi dollar will open today at just on 56.4 USc and another full -1c drop since this time yesterday and now close to the pandemic low and the rate that applied in April 2009. Against the Australian dollar we are -½c softer at just on 87.4 AUc and a new nine year low. Against the euro we are -½c lower 58.6 euro cents. Against the yuan we are now under ¥4 and its lowest since 2015 (except the pandemic) .That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just 67.1, and down -80 bps to an eleven year low (also pandemic-excepted).The bitcoin price is now at US$19,076 a mere +0.5% higher from this time yesterday. It has been under US$20,000 for nine straight days now. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Economy Watch
Asian economies buckle on strong greenback

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 25, 2022 6:29


Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.First we should note that it is a public holiday in New Zealand and markets are closed here today.Today we lead with news the US dollar has hit a 20 year high on global recession fears, and that is causing issues around the world, including for New Zealand.It won't make getting our inflation back under control any easier given how much is cause by the tradeables sector.In the wider Asian region the strong US dollar will hurt. The yuan makes up more than a quarter of the weighting of Asian currency indexes. And the Japanese yen is the third-most-traded global currency, so its weakness has had an outsized impact on its Asian counterparts. At the same time the Chinese economy is shrinking. And it will soon take further steps to bolster consumption.In China, home loan interest rates have dropped to record-low levels in at least 80 major Chinese cities, as financial regulators endeavour to keep the property market afloat. In September, over 80% of 103 key cities surveyed show first home loan rates have fallen to 4.1%, while second home loan rates have fallen to 4.9%.Singapore's annual inflation rose to 7.5% in August which was above the 7.2% expected by analysts, and above the 7.0% they had in July. Generally ASEAN inflation is something to keep an eye on, and the surging US dollar won't be helping. Malaysia's inflation is rising and is at 4.7%. Indonesia is also at 4.7%. Thailand is at 7.9%.Taiwan's inflation rate is low (like China's) and currently running at 2.8%. But their retail sales activity expanded +12% from a year ago, and their industrial production is up at record levels.In Italy, they are voting, deciding whether to choose their most right-wing government since WWII. It's an election being followed in Europe. Giorgia Meloni leads the far-right Brothers of Italy party and is aiming to become the country's first female prime minister, allied with two other parties on the right. We will know exit poll indications tomorrow.Staying with parties of the Right, new tax cuts and outsized public spending and subsidies in the UK seem to have crashed the British currency. What they will do for their economy is uncertain, but it is a huge 'experiment' that markets are judging will have an unhappy ending. Nouriel Roubini says this will end in an IMF bailout of the country.There were a couple of early PMIs out over the weekend. The American one reported that private sector output fell at softer pace as new orders returned to growth in September. Their factory sector expanded in September, but their services sector didn't even if the contraction was very minor. The American economy may be doing better than the financial markets because higher interest rates cause a revaluation down of financial instruments (and cause losses) whereas the real economy responds to consumer signals, not Wall Street signals.Canada reported retail sales activity for July overnight and it wasn't positive with both month-on-month declines (their first in seven months) and year-on-year retreats.The early Eurozone PMI for September reported a steeper downturn as price pressures intensified. Both their factory and service sectors are contracting this month, but the quantum is quite small at this stage. The negative impacts are strongest in Germany. The French activity is positive and helping to hold up the overall results.Early Australian PMI indexes show their factory sector expanding at a good pace in September and faster than in August. But their services sector is not mirroring that, more or less marking time.But much of Australia is exposed to mining, and commodity prices are retreating. Now credit rating firm Moody's has changed its outlook for the global metals and mining Industry from stable to negative as a global economic slowdown continues to soften demand.Over the past week, the price of copper has fallen -2.8%. Over the past month it is down -8.4%. For aluminium it is -5.6% and -10.1% respectively. For iron ore it is-2.0% and -8.2% respectively. But there are others still rising, like nickel which is down -5.5% in a week but up +8.9% in a month. Then there is coal, up marginally this past week and up +4.5% in a month. Wheat is up a sharpish +6.7% over the past week and up +12.1% over the past month.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.69% and marginally lower than this time Saturday but it has still been a +23 bps gain in a week. The price of gold will open today at US$1645/oz. This is up +US$3 from this time Saturday.And oil prices start today still much lower at just under US79.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price has risen about +US$1 to be just under US$86/bbl. These are still about eight month lows.The Kiwi dollar will open today at just on 57.4 USc. This is its lowest since briefly in the first few days of the first pandemic lockdown, and prior to that 13 years ago. Against the Australian dollar we softer at just under 88 AUc and still near its lowest in seven years. Against the euro we are little-changed at just under 59.3 euro cents. Against the yuan we are down under ¥4.1 and its lowest since 2015 (except the pandemic) .That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 67.9, and down -50 bps to a seven year low (also pandemic-excepted).The bitcoin price is now at US$18,981 and up +1.2% from this time Saturday. It has been under US$20,000 for eight straight days now. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.9%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Economy Watch
Global rush to raise policy rates, following US Fed

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 22, 2022 5:34


Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news central banks around the world are racing to raise rates in a concerted effort to squash inflation. The cost may be growth and jobs, but there seems universal agreement rampant inflation is a bigger long term risk.But first, US jobless claims rose last week to +178,000 but this level is still very low by historic standards. It is no indication their tight labour market is easing. There are now still less than 1.3 mln people on these benefits and the insured jobless rate is a tiny 0.9%.The US current account for Q2-2022 came in pretty much as expected, with a -US$251 bln deficit. It isn't good, and these huge quarterly deficits started in 2020 and haven't let up. Disastrous policy making is behind the ugly trend and although Q2-2022 was an improvement on Q1, it still came in at -4% of GDP. Recovery from mad policy isn't easy as they are finding out. (New Zealand's current account deficit is -2.7% and that isn't good either.)The latest regional factory survey, this one from the Kansas City Fed, reported a sluggish expansion, but firms continued to add workers and were moderately optimistic about growth in future months.But with mortgage rates hitting 6.29%, the American housing market is wavering and ready to a substantial drop, it seems. The chance to reset to improve affordability is ahead of them. Rents may have peaked too.The Bank of Japan met yesterday and held its ultra loose monetary policies. But the Japanese government had to intervene to support the yen for the first time since 1998 after the currency extended losses to fresh 24-year lows. The divergence between monetary policy in Japan and the United States has widened further adding to policy stress. The Bank of Japan maintained its key short-term interest rate at -0.1% with governor Kuroda saying the central bank won't be raising interest rates any time soon.The Taiwanese central bank also met and raised its policy rate to 1.625% from 1.5%. It was a modest rise in the face of a slowing economic expansion.Hong Kong had no inflation in August from July and very weak local economic activity, and the annual rate remained at 1.9% - almost all of which happened in October 2021 so is about to leave the index.Indonesia raised its policy rate by +0.5% yesterday as they are starting to experience inflation at too-high levels for them and now running at +6%. That took their policy rate up to 4.25%.Norway also raised its policy rate by +50 bps to 2.25%. They have an inflation rate running at 6.5%. Switzerland raised theirs by +75 bps to 0.50% and taking them out of a negative policy rate for the first time since 2015 and their highest rate since 2009. Swiss inflation is now running at 3.5%.The Bank of England joined the queue unanimously raising their rate by +50 bps too, to 2.25%. Their inflation rate is currently 9.9%. They also said the UK may already be in recession.EU consumer confidence confidence dropped further in August to a new all-time low since this series began in 2007. Container shipping costs dived -10% in the past week alone as demand in the sector deflates very quickly now. But the same is not true for oil tankers; the cost for them has doubled in the past month. And dry bulk cargo rates are inching higher again.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.70% and up a huge +19 bps from this time yesterday. This now its highest since 2010. The price of gold will open today at US$1672/oz. This is down -US$12 from this time yesterday.And oil prices start today up +50 USc from yesterday at just under US$83.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just over US$89.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar will open today at just on 58.5 USc and more than -½ lower than this time yesterday, as the Fed signals settle in. Against the Australian dollar we are slightly softer at just 88 AUc and its lowest in seven years. Against the euro we are little-changed at 59.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68.4, and down -40 bps.The bitcoin price is now at US$19,071 and down -1.8% than this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very high at just on +/- 4.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

The Voices of Manufacturing
How To Accelerate Frontline Learning With TWI

The Voices of Manufacturing

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 22, 2022 35:58


1:40 - How Patrick became a world-renowned authority on TWI3:30 - Why today's economic climate resembles wartime shifts6:20 - The mutual admiration society of Japanese and American management practices10:00 - Does training success come from the trainer, the methodology, or the author?13:30 - The magic of the TWI methodology from a time reduction perspective21:00 - Tactical elements of the TWI approach to job instruction23:20 — Why “starting with why” might not be the best approach for manufacturing workersFollow us on LinkedIn to continue this conversation, join us for some AMAs, and keep in the loop: linkedin.com/company/dozukiInterested in learning more about Dozuki? Visit us at dozuki.comFollow Patrick Graupp on LinkedInFollow Brian Sallee on LinkedInFollow Michael Muilenburg on LinkedIn

Economy Watch
Fed pushes a hawkish message

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 21, 2022 4:56


Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news that's all about the Fed who not only raised rates today, they also see more big rises before the end of the year.As expected, the US central bank has raised its policy rate by +75 bps to 3.25%. Interestingly, that is now above the RBNZ policy rate (of 3%) for the first time since March 2020, and outside the pandemic period and the period immediately before it, the first time in more than 20 years. It is also their highest since early 2008.The US Fed has also significantly raised its sights on where its policy rate is headed in its battle against inflation. By the end of 2022 they expect this rate to rise to 4%. Markets have priced in more with a year-end rate of 4.25%. A year out they now see a 4.6% Fed Funds rate, up sharply from 3.8%. And their view of how that comes down from there is now much more restrained.This is a slightly more hawkish view than they had at previous reviews.Markets initially responded by bidding up the value of the US dollar. Our currency fell -40 bps on the news but is now back up. The UST 10 year benchmark bond rate rose to a new high since 2010 on the news but then sunk to below its pre-announcement level. The S&P500 which was up +0.8% just before the news turned down by -0.6% and is now back up. Oil prices fell.In other data released overnight, US mortgage applications actually rose last week from the week before, a rare rise in a declining trend and is down about -30% from the same week a year ago. A large part is due to fast rising interest rates, with the benchmark 30-yr rate at 6.25%, and up +25 bps in just one week.American existing home sales slipped in August, although not be as much as they did in July. But it does extend the streak of declines to seven straight months. Rising mortgage rates got the blame here, and of course it won't get any easier after today's Fed moves.The Asian Development Bank has downgraded its forecast for China's 2022 growth to +3.3% from +5.0% in April. The bank also cut its projection for next year to 4.5% from 4.8%. At the same time, it said, the emerging Asian region is forecast to grow at a +4.9% rate, instead of its earlier April +5.3% forecast. It has been rare for China's expansion to be significantly less than its much smaller neighbours. In fact the last time that happened was 30 years ago as Deng Xiaoping was working to recover from the disastrous Mao Tse-tung years. It was a foundation that served them well - until Xi Jinping, it seems.China is cutting the regulated price of petrol again, its seventh reduction so far in 2022.In Australia, their central bank says it will not pay a dividend to their government “for a number of years” as it nurses balance sheet losses relating to its bond purchase program that could top AU$58 bln.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.51% and despite some sharp initial reactions higher has now fallen to a lower level than this time yesterday. The price of gold will open today at US$1684/oz. This is up +US$18 from this time yesterday, moved only after the Fed news..And oil prices start today down -US$1 from yesterday at just under US$83/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just on US$89/bbl.The Kiwi dollar will open today at just on 59.1 USc and +20 bps higher than this time yesterday, following the US Fed signals. Against the Australian dollar we are slightly firmer at 88.3 AUc. Against the euro we are actually up almost +½c to 59.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68.8, and up +20 bps.The bitcoin price is now at US$19,422 and firmer than this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Economy Watch
Nerves rise ahead of Fed

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 20, 2022 5:51


Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news markets only have eyes for the Fed, even as geopolitical tensions rise further in Ukraine.But first up today, there was another positive dairy auction this morning and overall prices rose a tad less than +2.0% which was probably a bit less than expected and which was no doubt due to the -0.7% slip in the SMP price when a good rise was anticipated. However the WMP price did rise +3.7%. Coming to the rescue has been the falling NZD however. Recall prices rose +10% at the prior event in NZD and this time the rise in local currency has been +4.6%. Fonterra's upcoming annual meeting will be full of satisfaction from their shareholders, even if this auction on its own probably won't change any farm gate payout forecast.We are now less than 24 hours from the US Fed meeting results and markets are bracing for some pain. The current view is that the Fed will stay tackling inflation strenuously (with another +75 bps hike) and be prepared to inflict painful growth-reducing consequences to achieve their goal. They need markets to 'know' they are serious about beating inflation no matter what the cost. Those may be costs others will pay, but this is probably their last chance to get on top of the inflation thief. Blinking now will damage their cred for a generation.In the US they reported that new housing starts rose in August while permits for residential housing slipped slightly. Completions dipped as usual during the August holiday period. Given the softness of their housing markets at present, this data is actually pretty good.US retail sales growth softened last week on a same-store basis, but they were still more than +10% ahead of year-ago levels.There was a UST 20yr bond auction earlier today where the yield rose sharply from the prior event. The well-supported tender drew US$32 bln in bids for the US$12 bln on offer and the median yield achieved was 3.75% which was almost +50 bps higher than the prior event a month ago.Canada reported its inflation rate at 7.0% in August, down from 7.6% in July and lower than the expected 7.3%. Month-on-month prices fell, and by more than expected.Japan also reported its August consumer price inflation but it rose to 3.0% from 2.6% in July. This was the 12th straight month of increase in consumer prices and the fastest pace since September 2014, amid surging food and fuel costs accentuated by a slump in the Yen. Core inflation also rose above analyst's estimates to 2.8%. Without food or fuel the rate was +1.6%. Now all eyes will turn to the Bank of Japan to see how they react. But while core consumer inflation exceeded the central bank's 2% target for five straight months, the central bank seems unlikely to raise interest rates anytime soon as wage and consumption growth remain weak, analysts say.China reviewed its loan prime rates today but made no changes to either the 1-year (used as a base for personal lending) or the 5-year (used as a base for institutional lending).Taiwanese export orders recovered in August which was impressive given the geopolitical pressures swirling around it then. They were up +2.0% in August when a -2% fall was expected after a -2% dip in July.Far more worrying however was producer price data out of Germany. These are now rising rampantly, up +7.9% in August from July when only a +1.6% rise was anticipated. That pushes their year-on-year PPI rise to a dangerous +45%. These are the largest changes ever recorded there. German industry is in a dark place at present.The race is on to insulate Germany from Russian risks. Newly released data shows that in the first seven months of 2022, China shipped photovoltaic (PV) modules with a combined capacity of 51.5 gigawatts to Europe, +25.9% more than the whole of last year.We should also probably note that in Australia, their officials face an improving Budget situation, one that could be +AU$50 bln better over the next few years.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.57% and up another +3 bps from this time yesterday. That is another new 11-year high.The price of gold will open today at US$1666/oz. This is another -US$5 below where it was this time yesterday.And oil prices start today down -US$1 from yesterday at just under US$84/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just under US$90/bbl.The Kiwi dollar will open today at just on 58.9 USc and more than -½c lower than this time yesterday, again. Against the Australian dollar we are also more than another -½c lower at 88.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down likewise to 59.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68.6, down another -60 bps and a new two year low.The bitcoin price is now at US$18,816 and -0.9% lower than this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.3%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Economy Watch
It's all about the Fed

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 19, 2022 4:33


Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news all laser-focused on the US Fed today.In the waiting period before the US Fed policy announcement on Thursday (NZT), the US dollar is edging higher, and hovering at a 20-year high. This is a distortion that is having global impacts. The UST bond yield benchmarks are also pushing higher, at 11 year highs. But equities are little-changed, waiting nervously to see if they have priced in the Fed's expected rise properly. At this point, the expectation is for a +75 bps hike taking the US Fed funds rate up to 3.25%. Markets have priced in +80 bps now, and expect their benchmark rate to max out at 4.5% in mid-2023. That means they expect another +125 bps over the next nine months, indicating they think most of the work has been done and after this week's rise it will be mopping up operations from the Fed. Still, the last time the US Fed funds rate was at 4.5% was in 2008.There was a small fall in homebuilder sentiment in the US in September, but it is the ninth in a row for this sector. This is a sector on the front lines of any looming recession.Canada has reported that its August producer prices fell, making it three consecutive month-on-month falls in a row and taking the annual rise back to +10.6%. Recall the annual rise was over +18% in March so the recent declines are gathering pace. The falling cost of raw materials is a feature of this reversal.But from the Fed's point of view, inflation is still stalking their economy. US retail petrol prices might be -6.2% lower now than a month ago, but they are still +15% higher than year-ago levels. That's a big improvement, but probably not enough.Of more concern for policymakers is that inflation is embedding itself in wider sections of their economy, and the risk of wage-push inflation remains high.China has reported a good inflow of foreign direct investment in August, +US$14.5 bln and +11% more than the same month a year ago. In a longer perspective however, this level is only equivalent to a +5% rise pa from 2018. Good but not special.It has now been two months since many Chinese homebuyers stopped repaying mortgages to protest stalled construction on their properties. A lack of progress at more sites now threatens to intensify the boycott, despite assurances from authorities.Later today Japan will reveal its August CPI rate. It was 2.6% in July, 2.4% for its 'core rate'. Markets expect that core rate to rise to 2.7% in August. The Bank of Japan has maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy for a very long time now, and eyes are on whether these sort of rates will be enough to induce any sort of change.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.49% and up +3 bps from this time yesterday. That is touching an 11-year high. The price of gold will open today at US$1671/oz. This is -US$5 below where it was this time yesterday.And oil prices start today little-changed from yesterday at just over US$85/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is still just under US$91/bbl.The Kiwi dollar will open today at just on 59.6 USc and almost -½c lower than this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are also -½c lower at 88.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down likewise to 59.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 69.2, down -40 bps and a two year low.The bitcoin price is now at US$18,987 and -3.5% lower than this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very high at just on +/- 4.0%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Economy Watch
Risk at a crossroad

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 18, 2022 6:26


Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news that the coming week will be dominated by interest rates decisions by the major central banks including US Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and the Bank of England. Also in focus will be August inflation rates reported for both Japan and Canada.All this will come following the global recession warning from the World Bank that is focusing minds.Most equity market indexes ended last week sharply lower as investor fears grew. And the S&P500 futures suggest that Wall Street will open tomorrow down another -0.8%. From its peak in January this year, the S&P500 has now retrenched by -19.3%. The cacophony of news when it hits -20% and a bear market just might drive it to a new low. Certainly p/e ratios need correcting in this new environment of much higher benchmark interest rates.But consumers seem to have had enough of the 'fear' mood - they already did that. Now they seem to be feeling better about life.In the US the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey rose to a five-month high, driven by a sharp, recent fall in petrol price inflation. Will it last? Who knows? Will the investor fear mood last? That seems equally uncertain but they are having to swallow increasing losses. Along with their bond investor brothers, equity market losses are piling up and portfolios are shrinking in value now. The negative mood might become a self-fulfilling trend in the back half of 2022.More positively we should note that the "interim settlement" of the US rail dispute is a significant risk removed from the immediate future. Given where the parties were, it is quite an achievement, under pressure. Ratification seems likely.China reported some key data late on Friday, and some of it was unexpectedly positive. Retail sales were up +5.4% in August from a year ago, an expansion at twice the July rate. Industrial production was up +4.2% on the same basis, also beating expectations. In fact, electricity production surged in August, up almost +10% from year-ago levels. But this is still a bit of a puzzle because these 'power' rises recently are far more than can be explained by industrial activity, or consumer behaviour.The Chinese central bank fixed the value of the yuan (CNY) at 6.93 to the US dollar on Friday. But in freely-traded offshore markets, the CNH is trading over 7. If you can get CNYs out of China, there is a good arbitrage trade available now with an "easy" 1% gain on each transaction.Chinese citizens are as heavily 'invested' in residential real estate as Kiwis, maybe even more so. But data out on Friday shows that in 50 or their 70 largest cities the prices of new housing fell in August from July. That is the most in more than seven years. More broadly, for housing resales, 56 of these 70 cities posted price retreats. The 'wealth effect' impact on vast numbers of Chinese households will be negative, and for many, disturbingly so. There may be building social disquiet.Meanwhile in Germany, they have seized control of some Russian-owned energy assets in the country to shore up its energy security concerns. Russia has turned off its gas and oil taps and Germany needs the local infrastructure to operate on alternate supplies, which are starting to flow in volume, including from the US. The price of oil and gas is not rising, nor is futures pricing.Elsewhere in Europe, Hungary is becoming the cheerleader for Russia at a time inflation is soaring. It has placed caps on mortgage rates, food prices and fuel costs. It is also cracking down of dissent, and the EU is worried for democracy in Hungary and is withholding US$7.5 bln in aid while those anti-democratic measures are in place. Hungary has inflation at 15.6% pa and a benchmark interest rate of 11.75%.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.46% and unchanged from this time Saturday. We should also note the sharp rises in wholesale swap rates in New Zealand on Friday, pushing up again. Our one year swap rate is now it's highest since 2008. Bond investors may be taking losses, equity investors joining them, but data out on Saturday (for July) shows an international rush to shift money to the US. In the month, they reported the sum total of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term US securities, and banking flows was an inflow of US$153.5 bln. While these flows are quite variable, there has been an upward trend in them since 2019.The price of gold will open today at US$1676/oz. This is -US$41 or -2.4% below where it was this time last week.And oil prices start today little-changed from Saturday at just on US$85/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is still just on US$90.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar will open today at just on 59.9 USc and marginally firmer than this time Saturday. For the week it has been a -1.2% devaluation. Since the start of the month a -2½% devaluation. And since the start of 2022 the devaluation has been -12½%. Against the Australian dollar we are unchanged at 89.2 AUc. Against the euro we are still just under 59.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 69.6, marginally firmer but still very close to a two year low.The bitcoin price is now at US$19,674 and virtually unchanged from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.3%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Economy Watch
Is the world in transition towards a 2023 recession?

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 15, 2022 5:19


Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news of China stumbling and central banks fiercely focused on controlling high inflation, the chances of a global recession in 2023 seem to be building.But last week only +156,000 Americans made jobless claims, taking the total number on these benefits to just 1.275 mln, an historic low. Whatever else might be going on, the Americans have a very tight labour market still.And American retail sales rose more than expected in August from July, and bouncing back from the disappointing prior month. These sales are now +10.4% higher than year-ago levels, so more than keeping up with inflation.However there were two regional Fed surveys out overnight and neither were especially positive. The Philly Fed one for September was the weakest, with new order levels no longer driving an expansion. The New York Empire State one came back from a deep August retreat with a small rise in new orders. Neither noted that businesses see a positive outlook.In fact the Fed's national monitoring of industrial production reported a small retreat in August, one that wasn't expected. This activity is up +3.7% for the year, but to be fair the main weakness is in mining activity. Consumer goods production is lackluster. But production of business goods remains quite strong, except perhaps for construction activity.It looks like a deal has been reached in the nationwide rail labour dispute, one that should avoid strike action. That has been a big threat hovering over near-term economic activity.In China, their seven largest banks dropped term deposit rates in coordination. It was their first decrease in seven years and strongly hints at fast-weakening loan demand, probably led by mortgage demand. But with many economists now forecasting 2022 Chinese growth to be only about +3%, business loan demand is likely much lower too.And China has again deferred tax payments for SMEs, the third time in 12 months they have taken this emergency action.Japan ran its biggest single-month trade deficit on record in August as imports surged on high energy costs and a slump in the yen, exposing the economy's vulnerability to external price pressures. Imports rose +50% in a year driven almost exclusively by energy imports. Their cost in yen ballooned because the value of the yen fell. Exports rose +22%.In Australia, the Melbourne Institute survey of year-ahead consumer inflation expectations fell to 5.4% in August from 5.9% in July.Australia reported its August labour market data yesterday and that showed a good +59,000 expansion in full-time jobs, and a fall in part-time jobs. The AUD firmed. It also showed a small rise in their jobless rate to 3.5%. A new study by the World Bank says a recession is possible next year if monetary tightening and the focus on beating inflation remains the goal of central banks.Container shipping costs are falling even faster now, down -8% from last week alone to be now -50% lower than year-ago levels, which were admittedly high. The key Shanghai-Los Angeles rates are collapsing, down -11% last week alone and are down by two thirds from year-ago levels. Against the grain, shipping rates for bulk cargoes are rising recently, although they are only back to pre-pandemic levels.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.46% and up +5 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will open today at US$1665/oz and dropping -US$32 from this time yesterday. That is a 2 year low.And oil prices start today -US$4 lower at just on US$85/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just on US$90.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar will open today at just on 59.8 USc and nearly -½c lower than this time yesterday. For the week it has been a -1.2% devaluation. Since the start of the month a -2½% devaluation. And since the start of 2022 the devaluation has been -12½%. Against the Australian dollar we are marginally lower than yesterday at 89 AUc. Against the euro we are lower at 59.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 69.5 and a new two year low.The bitcoin price is now at US$19,833 and another -1.4% fall from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.