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Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the imminent deal Trump talked up on Saturday seems to have faded, mainly because Israeli attacks on Beirut have undermined the situation. But if there was to be a deal, it is sure to dominate financial markets. In the meantime, war is the standard situation. These same markets are also contending the implications of the wildly successful SpaceX float. It was full of animal spirits, FOMO, and gambling fever, and more than a few observers are seeing this as evidence of a gigantic bubble. After all it values SpaceX at 100 times its current revenues, and the business operates at a loss. At a US$2 tln 'value', to be sustainable it would need to generate after-tax profits of at least 10% or US$200 bln per year. And that is about double what Aramco-plus-Google do now, #1 and #2 combined. In the real world, Thursday will bring the next US Fed policy meeting result, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, Trump's replacement of Jerome Powell. Powell will still have a vote however. Most observers see them holding their key rate at 3.75%. The Fed has an inflation target of 2% for the PCE measure of inflation which is currently running at 3.8% with the CPI running at 4.2%, a three year high, with both rising sharply last time they were released. There will need to be some policy gymnastics to ignore those signals, but they may hope the fuel component reverses soon to save them. That is probably why markets think there will be no change on Thursday. The US Fed won't be the only central bank on action this week. We will get reviews from the Bank of Japan (+25 bps to 1.00% expected), Sweden's Riskbank, Norway's Norges Bank, the Swiss National Bank, the English central bank, even in Brazil. More importantly for us is that we will get the RBA's latest update on Tuesday, where no change from the current 4.35% is expected. And the New Zealand Q1-2026 GDP result will drop this week and it will be a surprise it it isn't a year-on-year growth rate of +1.1%. Of course, this will be very dated data. In fact the RBNZ's own Nowcast suggests GDP will drop -0.2% in Q2-2026 from the prior quarter after rising +0.6% in the March quarter. Markets see a March quarterly rise of +0.9%. In Japan, attention will focus on the Bank of Japan's policy meeting, where it is widely expected to raise the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1% amid persistent inflation and yen weakness. If delivered, it would mark the first rate increase since December last year and the highest policy rate since 1995. The country is also set to publish trade, inflation, and machinery orders data. In India, producer inflation is projected to rise to 9.1% in May from 8.3% in April, driven by rising energy costs. Other major releases include trade, unemployment, and passenger vehicle sales figures. In China, investors will monitor a series of key economic releases next week, including house prices, industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment, and their jobless data. After April's surprise decline, China's May new yuan loans resumed their growth in data out over the weekend, up +5.5% from a year ago with a modest +¥520 bln rise, about what was expected (+¥550 bln). Still, at that level it is the weakest May increase in eighteen years, as the usual suspect - the property market - continues to drag on bank lending. Across the Pacific, American consumers felt the cost of living pressure ease slightly in June as petrol prices came back off their recent war highs. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index rose in early June, up from May's all-time low and a better than expected recovery. It was a modest recovery all the same with improvements seen across all age, education, and political groups. Lower-income consumers, for whom fuel represents a larger share of budgets, showed a particularly strong rebound even if it is still deeply negative and its second lowest of all time. And in Europe, Switzerland had another set of national referendums. One proposal, to cap its population at 10 mln, has been voted down. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.49%, up +1 bps from Saturday, down -5 bps for the week. The price of gold has recovered a very minor +US$4 from Saturday to US$4222/oz but down -US$102 for the week. Silver is little-changed US$67.50/oz and the same as last week at this time. Oil prices are up +50 USc from Saturday at just under US$85/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$87.50/bbl. A week ago these two prices were US$90.50 and US$93/bbl respectively. Hormuz transits have dried up again. And global oil reserves are draining into uncharted territory. The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time Saturday at just on 58.3 USc, up +30 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62 which is unchanged from Saturday, up +30 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,655 and down a minor -0.3% from this time Saturday. That is a +5.8% rise from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/- 0.8%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorriow. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news Trump cancelled his latest planned military strikes claiming negotiating progress. That has been enough to settle financial markets today. But first in the US, producer prices jumped +1.1% in May from April to be +6.5% higher than a year ago and to their highest since November 2022. And before the pandemic, their highest since this series began in 2009. Core PPI was up +5.1% and a similar high. These rises were more than expected. US initial jobless claims also rose more than expected last week.to 228,400 and more than seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.69 mln people on these benefits, less than a year ago and marginally less than two years ago. In Canada, building consents were expected to fall back in April after the spurt in March, but they fell more than expected. Residential consents fell -5.5% and commercial consents fell an outsized -10.5%, both from the prior month. From a year ago, these consent levels were +2.5% high, but that is on a value basis and construction PPI rose +2.8% in that same time. In Europe, the ECB raised its policy interest rate by +25 bps to 2.4% as widely expected, it first increase since 2023. It also raised its inflation expectation to 3% in 2026 and cut its growth forecast slightly to +0.8% this year and to 1.2% in 2027. In Indonesia, their financial crisis is intensifying with their currency in freefall and their stock market too. The worry is it may drive a social crisis at our backdoor. In Australia, the Melbourne Institutes survey of inflation expectations dipped in June to 5.5% following a dip in May after they peaked at 5.9% in April. The June result was well below the 6.5% jump some expected. But remember, their fuel tax concession (50%) is expected to end at the end of this month. If it does, it could put upward pressure on consumer inflation. (April actual CPI came in at 4.2% and the May result will be released on June 24.) In contrast wage expectations have remained unchanged for the past seven months. The World Bank said overnight that global growth is leaking away due solely to the Middle East handbrake. It now sees 2026 expanding at 2.5%, and 2027 at 2.8%. These are slowdowns from 2025's +2.9% expansion and the prospect is slowest growth since the pandemic. Meanwhile OPEC bravely says that world oil demand will recover quickly after the current Persian Gulf issues are resolved. Global container freight rates rose another +3% last week to be level with the elevated rates of a year ago, when the Houthis were threatening the Red Sea access. It is all about outbound rates from China to Europe. In fact, China to the USWC rates are holding, but much lower on a year-ago basis. Bulk cargo rates fell -12% in the past week to be +68% higher than year-ago levels. And official forecasters are now certain enough to warn of a severe El Niño climate event starting soon. The US issued its official warning after Australia said the chances are rising. We are being warned to expect 2026-27 to bring global risks of intense heat waves, sharp drops in rainfall in some key areas but deluges in other parts. India is expected to get a weak monsoon. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.45%, down -9 bps for the day. The price of gold has recovered +US$54 from yesterday at US$4152/oz. Silver is up US$1.50 at US$66/oz. Oil prices are down -US$5 from yesterday at just under US$86.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$89.50/bbl. Hormuz transits are resuming today with 69 in the past 24 hours as owners rush to get their ships out. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just under 58.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 82.7 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.8 which is also little-changed from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,223 and up +2.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.0%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.  Today we lead with news the US is frustrated with Iran and is promising even more military strikes. The deal Trump thought was close, isn't. The escalation threat has oil and financial markets reacting badly. But first today, American CPI inflation jumped from 3.8% in April to 4.2% in May, largely as expected and largely based on higher fuel costs. This is its highest since April 2023. Today's geopolitical events and markets reactions probably mean it isn't finished with the current trajectory. Actually, for March, April and now May, their CPI index rose +2.0% in just those months, so the rate being experienced by consumers (annualised +8%?) is very much higher than the annual one reported. The White House reaction was very unexpected: Trump said, "You know, I love the inflation." Certainly, financial markets were unimpressed. There was a large jump in American mortgage applications last week even though benchmark home loan interest rates stayed elevated at about 6.6%. After six weeks of holding back, it seems borrowers are coming to accept that they have to pay these higher rates. Remember pre-war, these rates were under 6.1%. The jump in applications this week were from both new borrowers and those needing refinance. For a seventh straight week, and including stocks in their strategic reserve, American crude oil stocks dropped in the latest update, and by almost double the rate expected. Today's US Treasury 10yr bond auction was well supported and yield's rose only modestly for this one, coming in at 4.48% median (4.54% high bid), up from 4.41% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. In Canada, their central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% as expected, and for the fifth consecutive time. They had inflation at 2.8% in April so, so far, there is little evidence higher energy prices are being passed on or embedded in their consumer cost base. Data out in Japan yesterday shows their May producer prices rose +6.3% from a year ago, up from 5.3% in April and the fastest rise since the end of the pandemic in March 2023. After the April spurt, they rose another +0.9% in May alone. China's CPI inflation level was low and stable in May, coming in at 1.2% from a year ago, unchanged from April. Beef prices were up +4.2% however and lamb prices up +6.2%. Egg prices are up +6.6% on the same basis and a five year high. These were more than offset by a -16% drop in Chinese pork prices though. And dairy prices fell -1.2% on the same year-ago basis. But China's producer prices are not so calm. In fact they rose an outsized +5.8% in May from a year ago for industrial products, up 3.9% overall when you broaden the categories to include food, clothing and other goods produced for consumers. Apart from the pandemic, the headline 3.9% is the highest they have had since August 2018. In Australia, we should note that their emergency petrol tax concession will end at the end of June. That will juice up their inflation if it isn't extended. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.54%, up +1 bp for the day.  The price of gold will start today down another -US$160 from yesterday at US$4098/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at US$64.50/oz. Oil prices are up +US$3 from yesterday at just under US$91.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$94.50/bbl. Hormuz transits are almost non-existent today, only 2 in the past 24 hours.. The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.8 which is down -10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$61,781 and little-changed (up +0.3%) from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.7%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news uncertainty swirls in the Middle East as Iran has shot down an American Apache helicopter (and Trump is looking more like Jimmy Carter by the day). But more ships are transiting (paying Iran's toll), and that extra oil is easing the global price. But first locally, the overnight dairy Pulse auction delivered lower prices for the four products offered. AMF was down -4.6% from last week's full auction. Butter was down -0.6%. SMP was down -5.5% and WMP was down -3.5%. But an intervening -2% fall in the NZD took some of the sting out of these retreats. In the US, NFIB Business Optimism Index fell again and to its lowest since October 2024.. These businesses are struggling with "significant and unpredictable hikes in fuel prices", which they find harder to pass on to their customers compared to their larger corporate competitors. The weekly ADP jobs report said new private sector jobs created were lower last week at +29,000, in fact their lowest since the end of March. American existing home sales actually rose in May to an annualised rate of 4.17 mln, its highest of the year. This was impressive because mortgage interest rates rose in the period and seems not to have been the handbrake sometimes assumed. All the same, unsold inventory rose. There was a small but notable increase in demand for the overnight and popular US Treasury 3 year bond which delivered a median yield of 4.15% (high of 4.19%), sharply up on the 3.92% median at the prior equivalent event a month ago. In April, US exports of goods and services rose +2.6% from March +12.5% from a year ago, helped by better exports of crude oil, AI computer gear and aircraft, but most offset by a quite sharp fall in tourism receipts. Imports were up +1.9% from March, up +9.1% from a year ago, dominated by capital goods and rising transport and travel cost by Americans. Their trade deficit narrowed slightly, but big trade deficits remained with Taiwan (-$19.3 nln), Vietnam (-$19.3 bln), Mexico (-$14.8 bln), China (-$12.0 bln), the EU (-$7.2 bln), and Canada (-$6.2 bln). The Texas screwworm outbreak is spreading which will affect their beef trade. The outbreak now includes for a dog. Meanwhile, Canadian exports rose +1.6% from the previous month to C$75.2 bln in April, the highest on record and up +24.7% from the same month a year ago. Imports rose too, but they still managed to report their best monthly trade surplus since January 2025 and their best April since 2008. Across the Pacific, China's exports surged +19.4% in May from a year ago to a record high of US$377 bln, far exceeding forecasts of +15% and accelerating sharply from April's 14.1% rise. It was the fastest increase since February and gave them a trade surplus of +US$105.4 bln. However, Chinese oil imports hit an eight year low in May. Across the strait, Taiwan said its exports rose even more impressively, up +52% from a year ago. Their imports were up +55%. That means a trade surplus for them of +US$17.9 bln, middle-range for what they have had since October 2025 and wildly higher than in any prior period Japanese machine tool orders fell in May from April after falling in April too. But they remain up +37% from a year ago. The monthly easing was for orders from both domestic and foreign customers. Staying in Japan, reports are growing that their central bank will raise its policy rate by +25 bps to 1.0% when they meet on Friday week. And they are likely to pause their JGB bond sell-down program that is underway. And in Indonesia, their central bank held an emergency meeting to assess the economic crisis growing in their financial and fx markets. At that meeting they hikes their policy rate to 5.50%, a hike of +25 bps. They last met only three weeks ago when they raised their rate by +25 bps at that time too. They started 2026 with a 4.75% rate. Their actions are required to stop the Indonesian currency falling sharply, down -7.8% in 2026. In Europe, the Netherlands blocked an American company from buying a local firm that handles its national ID system, saying it would create a “threat to the public interest.” The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.53%, down -2 bps for the day. The price of gold will start today down -US$75 from yesterday at US$4258/oz. Silver is down a sharp -US$3.50 at just under US$65/oz. Oil prices are down -US$2.50 from yesterday at just under US$88.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$91.50/bbl. Hormuz transits are still very low despite the pricing optimism. China's crude imports dropped to around 7.8 million barrels per day last month, the lowest level in more than eight years and nearly 4 million barrels per day below the 2025 average. Weaker shipments to from the world's largest oil importer even if caused by Hormuz, combined with record US exports and emergency reserve releases, has limited the price impact of the Middle East conflict. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 58.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.9 which is up +10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$61,545 and down -2.95% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.6%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

The Mandalorian works with a nefarious crew in The Mandalorian Chapter 6 - The Prisoner. We are revisiting this episode from season one in this episode of Podcast Stardust.    On this episode, we discuss: The Mandalorian's history with Ranzar and his crew, Why didn't the Mandalorian ask who they were going after, Our reaction to Mayfeld the gunman, Jay's initial and subsequent response to Xi'an the Twi'lek, and The cameos featured in this episode. Thanks for joining us for another episode! Subscribe to Podcast Stardust for all your Star Wars news, reviews, and discussion wherever you get your podcasts. And please leave us a five star review on Apple Podcasts.   Find Jay and her cosplay adventures on J.Snips Cosplay on Instagram. Follow us on social media: Twitter | Facebook | Instagram | Pinterest | YouTube. T-shirts, hoodies, stickers, masks, and posters are available on TeePublic. Find all episodes on RetroZap.com.

[15x6] We finish another franchise, as we're back with a double-whammy episode! Yes, it's The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, and we're covering both parts together. Here, Bella (Kristen Stewart) finally marries Edward (Robert Pattison) and is transformed into a vampire during a difficult pregnancy, which has.... interesting repercussions for her friend Jacob (Taylor Lautner)... And making another return to the show is Twi-hard, horror fan, and copywriter Kim Morrison...

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that yesterday's renewed hostilities between Israel and Iran seem to have been paused. And financial markets are reacting as though this is something permanent, a deluded reading of even recent history. It is more an excuse to bet on higher equity prices again. Away from these irrational markets and after hitting a two and a half year high in April at 3.5%, American inflation expectations for one year ahead slipped back to 3.2% in May, according to the latest national New York Fed survey update. Given that April's actual inflation was recorded at 3.8%, this represents a sanguine view of what lies ahead. More broadly, the same survey shows that households expect their financial situation to deteriorate. It is not only households. In a focus on the SME sector, another national review found them deeply pessimistic about 2026 prospects. Across the Pacific in Japan, some top-line data out yesterday for the March quarter points to improving metrics. GDP came in with a +1.8% growth rate and better than expected (+1.3%). And bank lending data shot up in May, up +5.7% and easily exceeding the expansion of +5.4% in April from a year ago. In China, construction machinery sales were strong in May with excavator sales up +36% from year-ago levels as infrastructure projects gain momentum. Things are not so bright for car sales in China. Sales ‌dropped -22% from a year earlier to 1.53 million vehicles in May, the eighth consecutive monthly fall. Even EV sales fell (-5%). In Germany, they posted some negative factory order data for April. They were down -3.8% on an inflation adjusted basis from the previous month, but that came after a +4.5% rise on the same basis for March. From a year ago, also in real terms, German factory orders were up +1.6% in April. And factory sales didn't decline in April either. In the Persian Gulf, to cross the Strait of Hormuz, the transit trickle is still low but not zero. Only ten ships crossed in the past 24 hours. It has now been 100 days since the crisis began and it seems Iran is successfully tolling the Strait, according to maritime sources. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.55%, up just +1 bp for the day.  The price of gold will start today up +US$5 from yesterday at US$4333/oz. Silver is up +US$1 at just under US$68.50/oz. Oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday at just on US$91/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$94/bbl and up +US$1. Hormuz transits are still very low despite the pricing optimism. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at this time at just over 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 82.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.8 which is up +20 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$63,416 and up +1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news US benchmark interest rates rose notably after their apparently strong labour market report. But first, locally this week it will be about migration and travel data for April, possibly plus the May PMIs. In Australia, we will be watching for the April building permit data, along with updates for May for their consumer and business confidence surveys. In the US, they will release its consumer and producer inflation figures, the final price gauges before this month's Federal Reserve decision at the end of next week, in addition to existing home sales and their trade balance. Likewise, trade data and inflation data is coming from China as well as new yuan lending data. Trade data from Taiwan will drop this week too. And at the end of the week we will get central bank decisions from Canada and the ECB. On the corporate front, SpaceX will release what is likely to be the largest IPO on record. Over the weekend, China said its foreign exchange reserves swelled again and are now at US$3.44 tln and their highest since October 2015. They added a bit more gold but its value eased in the past month, so this wasn't a factor in the expanding reserves. Also, there was data out for Taiwanese inflation (firmish but low at 2.2%), Singapore retail (doing better with a +5.4% rise from a year ago), and an Indian central bank policy rate review (holding at 5.25%). None of these moved markets. Meanwhile, India said its Q1-2026 economic expansion rolled on with a better growth rate (+7.8%) than markets were expecting (+7.2%). In the US, the anticipated non-farm payrolls report delivered a strong result over the weekend, with a +172,000 jobs gain at the headline level and more than double the expected +82,000 gain. From a year ago, that is a rise of +503,000. But this data is the seasonally adjusted result from payroll employment. Looking more broadly, US civilian employment rose +149,000 in May from April but is -504,000 lower than year-ago levels. It is clearly very tough indeed for the unincorporated self employed. Of the headline jobs gain, +70,000 were in their hospitality sector (expecting a soccer World Cup boost?), local government added +55,000 jobs, healthcare +35,000, social assistance +17,000. There we no changes or declines in the manufacturing, IT and administration sectors, and little in the construction sector. Basically, lower paid jobs rose, higher paid ones shrank. The US no longer releases details of full-time, part-time job changes or detail. Total American consumer debt rose by +US$21 in May, following a downwardly revised +US$22 bln gain in April. This was slightly more than expected. Revolving credit, which includes credit card debt, rose +US$14 bln while nonrevolving credit, which includes vehicle and student loans, rose +US$8 bln in the month. This data shows sustained consumer demand for debt despite elevated borrowing costs and the rising interest-rate environment. And that, along with the gritty labour market questions, has driven a pullback in attitudes, to a more risk-off, defensive posture at the end of last week. More investors see the US Fed pushing ahead with rate hikes earlier than anticipated to try and not be blindsided from rising inflation getting embedded. After all, the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, and oil prices have ended the week higher than where they started. In turn that risk-off has driven US benchmark interest rates up, equity markets lower, and the US currency very much higher, Canada also released its May jobs data over the weekend and that was better than expected too. They added +88,000 jobs when a gain of only +10,000 was anticipated. Better, their full-time jobs grew +154,000 in the month, as part-time jobs shrank. Their jobless rates fell notably to 6.6%, from 6.9% in April and continuing the downward trend that started in October 2025. A stronger jobs market may also give the Bank of Canada cover to raise rates to get ahead of their inflation threats, too. In the EU, Ireland has had a stunning reversal of fortune, with their economy contracting more than -12% in Q1-2026. It alone was enough to twist the overall EU GDP lower. Ireland's multinational-dominated sectors contracted by -27% in Q1-2026 with their domestic sectors expanding by +0.4% and more in line with the other EU countries. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.54%, unchanged from this time Saturday but up +11 bps for the week.  The price of gold will start today up +US$4 from Saturday at US$4328/oz. That is down -US$227/oz (or -5.1%) from this time last week and about its lowest level of the year. Silver is down -50 USc at just under US$67.50/oz, down -10% for the week. Oil prices are little-changed from Saturday just on US$90.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$93/bbl. Hormuz transits are still very low despite the pricing optimism. A week ago these prices were US$87.50/bbl and US$91.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar has stayed down from Saturday at this time at just under 58 USc. From a week ago it is down -190 bps. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.6 which is down -10 bps from Saturday, down -170 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$62,246 and recovering +3.4% from this time Saturday and still falling. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.1%.  You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with Hezbollah has rejected being part of a US-Iran accommodation, and Israel is continuing to attack it in Beirut and southern Lebanon. Despite this, markets still hope that a ceasefire can be agreed and the Strait of Hormuz opened. They are pricing it will, but it is shut still today. Elsewhere and in the US, there were 97,000 announced job cuts in May, the most since January and the highest May since 2020 and the pandemic effect - and prior to that the highest since this tracking began in 1999. Most of the current layoffs are in the tech industry, and due to AI displacement. Markets await the May non-farm payrolls report tomorrow and the expectation is for a modest +85,000 net jobs gain. This is despite the private ADP report indicating a higher level. US initial jobless claims were little-changed last week at 188,000 although seasonal factors would have expected a solid -10,000 fall from that level. There are now 1.64 mln people on these benefits. lower than year ago levels. And staying in the US, they have found the flesh-eating screwworm in their Texas cattle herd, another reason their beef industry is unlikely to be able to sustain its output. The EU said its retail sales volume growth was weak in April, up +0.9%, up +1.0% in the euro area from a year ago. From the prior month, these volumes dipped. But this dip actually doesn't interrupt the rising trend in place since late 2023 We are ending the week with the price of some key commodities like copper, tin and aluminium hold just off their recent peaks. China is facing broad pushback at the level of subsidising it gives its steel industry. The OECD singled them out for criticism urging coordinated action against them to save capability around the world. A new round of defensive trade barriers will likely follow. Chinese over-capacity is enabled by these subsidies and it drives down prices everywhere as Chinese companies rush to quit stocks they can't sell at home. The geopolitical toll on the logistics industry is starting to bite. Global container freight rates surged +23% this week from the prior week to be up basically level with year-ago levels (which were unusually high due to the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea). Most of this is due to the hikes in rates for the outbound China trade routes. Meanwhile bulk cargo freight rates eased back a minor -3% after their recent peak last week. In Australia, AI is being put to use driving legal claims by amateurs. Courts are being flooded with AI written plaintiff claims, especially for personal injury, unfair dismissal, rent disputes, and 'pain & suffering' claims. New powers are being rushed through the Canberra parliament to try and stem the flood. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.47%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$41 at US$4478/oz. Silver is up +50 USc at just under US$74/oz. Oil prices are down -US$4 just over US$92/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$94.50/bbl and down -US$3.50. Hormuz remains shut however despite the pricing optimism. The Kiwi dollar is firmer from yesterday at this time at 58.8 USc, up +20 bps. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just under 50.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3 which is up +10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$63,013 and down another -4.3% from this time yesterday and still falling. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just under +/- 3.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news intensified clashes in the Persian Gulf has oil prices rising, little transit activity in the Strait of Hormuz, and significant disconnect from Trump's claim that both sides are still negotiating. Clearly they aren't, In the world economy, and first in the US, mortgage applications fell again last week, a third consecutive weekly easing mostly driven by lower refinance activity. Mortgage interest rates eased back however even if they remain at close to one year highs. Ahead of this weekend's US non-farm payrolls report (expect +85,000), private businesses added +122,000 jobs in May according to the ADP survey, a new high since January 2025, compared to a downwardly revised +105,000 in April and above forecasts of +117,000. Hiring was broad-based they report and say it augers well going into the summer hiring season. But this isn't backed up by the US services PMIs for the US. The May ISM services PMI reported a good expansion, about the average it has been in 2026 and slightly higher than expected. Good new order flows are behind the result. But the same firms reported contracting staffing levels and faster input cost pressures. The parallel S&P Global services PMI was less upbeat, noting a muted increase in business activity, optimism faltering and employment falling solidly. Overall, it is a jobless expansion, these PMIs both say. US factory orders are reflecting some of the stockpiling effects we have noted earlier. In April these orders rose +13.0% in nominal dollar terms above year-ago levels. But without aircraft and defense orders, they were up +5.8% - still a good result but mostly accounted for by inflation. And remember PPI rose +6.0% in the same twelve month period. American crude oil stocks fell again, for the sixth consecutive week and the largest fall in this period. Over the past year, it has fallen more only in three specific weeks but each of those were not in a continuing series. Their strategic oil stocks are now at their lowest in 22 years. The US Fed's Beige Book surveys for May reported most of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts had slight-to-modest increases in growth, though a handful experienced flat or slightly declining activity. Labour markets remained tight but were cooling. Business respondents said rising input costs for nonlabour inputs were largely able to be passed on to consumers. Consumer spending was described as mixed, heavily influenced by affordability concerns and shifts in discretionary income. In Canada key housing markets in Ontario, new listings have fallen, as have prices, and more homes are selling but also, more are selling at a loss. In Japan, their central bank will meet next in a bit over a week and their Governor has indicated that rate hikes will be discussed to weigh against rising inflation, even that pushed by higher energy costs. According to the private S&P Global (RatingDog) services PMI for China, that sector is expanding on a faster basis, much stronger than as reported by their official data. New business is expanding and they are hiring faster. But they also face their highest cost pressure since October 2023. Meanwhile, Australia released its Q1-2026 GDP data today, saying their economy expanded +2.5% in real terms over the past year. But the growth rate slowed in the March quarter from the December 2025 quarter. Rising interest rates and significantly higher fuel costs in the March month likely created an environment for more cautious consumer behaviour. This resulted in reduced spending across a range of household expenditure categories. And exports fell. The unders and overs likely balanced out but the level of spending on equipment for new data centers was so large it might have accounted for all the Q1 gain. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.49%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today down -US$45 at US$4437/oz. Silver is down -US$1.50 at just under US$73.50/oz. Oil prices are up another +US$2.50 just over US$96/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$98/bbl and up +US$2. Hormuz remains shut. The Kiwi dollar is lower from yesterday at this time at 58.6 USc, down -60 bps. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -40 bps at just under 50.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.2 which is down -50 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$65,847 and down another -2.4% from this time yesterday and still falling. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest however at just under +/- 1.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of a changing of the guard. Countries are moving away from US Treasuries as a core reserve asset, replacing it with gold. At the same time, crypto values including for bitcoin, seem to be fading fast. But first up today, there was a full dairy auction overnight, one that brought slightly lower overall prices, with the USD index falling -0.6% mainly on -3% lower SMP prices. Milk fat products like AMF. Butter and Cheddar all rose, offsetting the fall in powder prices. But the NZD has also strengthened, so the result in NZD terms was a -2.0% fall. A pull-back in demand from China is part of this story too. In the US, they reported a surge in April job openings, their most in 18 months, notably in California and other western states. It is a services related thing, with manufacturing jobs not really participating. Meanwhile, the US RCM/TIPP economic sentiment survey fell slightly in June from may, but to its lowest in two years. And the US Logistics Managers Index is showing the full impacts of the current supply-chain disruptions and stockpiling. It held in May at its highest since the pandemic stress period. It is increasing at an increasing rate for inventory costs, warehousing capacity, and freight prices. In China, we should note that it is wheat harvest season and that they expect a bumper result. At the same time, both Australian and US farmers are hesitating in their plans for wheat as high fertiliser and fuel costs threaten to make the prospects very uncertain. In the EU and as expected, CPI inflation firmed up to 3.2% in May from 3.0% in April. Their core inflation rose as well. It seems to be only about rising fuel costs at present with the spread wider quite limited. Will the ECB hike its policy rate on June 11? Markets are betting 100% it will. In Australia, they have slipped into their first trade deficit since 2017 in the March 2026 quarter. Exports of minerals fell (except for gold) while imports of data center equipment surged. Globally, it is worth noting again that aluminium, zinc, copper and tin are all now either at record highs or at post-pandemic highs. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.46%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today down -US$9 at US$4482/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at just over US$75/oz. Interestingly, an ECB analysis released overnight has highlighted that after the run-up in the gold price, at the same time as the value of US Treasuries fell, gold was the largest single asset held for 'foreign reserves'. (see Chart 7) Oil prices are up another +US$2 just under US$93.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now on US$96/bbl and up +US$1.50. Hormuz remains shut. The Kiwi dollar is lower from yesterday at this time at 59.2 USc, down -30 bps. Against the Aussie we are also down -40 bps at 82.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just under 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62.7 which is down -20 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$67,464 and down a sharp -5.9% from this time yesterday and falling. Crypto funds are getting excess redemptions at present. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just under +/- 3.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the scale of Trump's strategic failure with Iran is becoming clearer. Iran holds the key cards, it seems, and there is little but bluster and renewing its military flailing he can do about it. Even Israel seem to be ignoring Trump's potency, which is another signal of regional chaos. Iranian media reported that Tehran had suspended communications with Washington, following the attacks in Lebanon, and will move to fully close the Strait of Hormuz - and open new fronts in their war pushback. We are just going to have to live with the resulting chronic mess. And that probably means elevated inflation for much longer and all that brings with it - like supply chain disruptions and logistic twists. Stockpiling, itself an indication of economic inefficiency, is the current way the global economy is reacting, in turn an inflation enhancer. First today in the US, that stockpiling is showing up in their two May factory PMI reports. The S&P Global version recorded output growth rose to its strongest level since April 2022 as buyers scramble to beat price rises and supply delays. Input costs rose at their fastest rate since mid-2022. Meanwhile the ISM version reported very similar conditions, even if at a slightly lesser level. In Canada, their factory PMI version reported that growth was sustained in May as output, new orders and employment all rose. But like in the US, this is all trying to beat the cost pressures and supply chain challenges that are intensifying. In Japan, their May factory PMI remained unusually strong. But firms there signaled further strong increases in production with sales Input costs and selling prices rising at some of the steepest rates on record. Stock building efforts are still very much in evidence amid the ongoing and substantial supply chain disruptions. In South Korea, their factory upturn, already strong, gathered more pace amid stockpiling efforts. Output rises are their strongest in five years. Price pressures persist and remain near record highs. Meanwhile jobs growth is now at its highest since March 2013 as the outlook improves. Meanwhile Korean exports surged +53% from a year ago to a record US$88 bln for the month. (For perspective, New Zealand exports run at about US$6 bln per month average. Australia is about US$32 bln/mth.) Their biggest increases were to China, although there were outsized export gains to the US. Their explosive growth is largely around their IT sector. In Taiwan, their factory output expanded at quickest rate since July 2021 in May. New orders continue to rise sharply. Firms report intense cost pressures here too, amid severe supply chain disruption. Stockpiling efforts are driving a quicker upturn in purchasing activity, they say. In China, their non-official S&P Global factory PMI was good, but nothing like their smaller neighbours. Growth rates for new orders and output remain good, although export orders fell. Input price inflation eased for first time in six months. They also have stockpiling effects as factories raised input stocks because supplier delivery times stretched out again. Indian industrial production stayed expanding in April and at a good rate, similar to what they have had since July 2025, and showing none of the slowdown analysts had been expecting to see in their data. EU inflation expectations as tracked by the broad ECB survey shows them unchanged at 4.0% in April. Analysts had expected them to rise to 4.3% but that didn't eventuate. The EU factory PMI is still expanding but at quite a modest rate even as they have the same cost pressures everyone else is reporting. In Australia, and in something of a surprise, the Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge recorded a -0.3% fall in May from April, after consecutive rises in the previous two months. The fall was primarily influenced by lower transport-related prices, attributable largely to fuel and the excise tax rollback. For the year to May this gauge reports inflation at 4.4%. The monthly cost of living also declined in May from April, particularly for self-funded retirees. The updated Australian PMI shows little real expansion with the steepest fall in new orders since last October being recorded for May. But prices are being pushed up all the same with selling price inflation at a 45-month high as sharp rises in input costs keep coming. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.47%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday.  Wall Street has started its week ignoring the Middle East situation with the S&P500 up +0.4% and enough to claim another new record high. The Nasdaq is up +0.7%. Both markets consumed by the big tech IPOs underway.  The price of gold will start today down -US$48 at US$4491/oz. Silver is up +50 USc at just under US$75.50/oz. Oil prices are up +US$4 just under US$91.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now on US$94.50/bbl and up +US$3.50. Oil had been starting to trade like Hormuz was open, but no more. The Kiwi dollar is lower from yesterday at this time at 59.5 USc, down -50 bps. Against the Aussie we are also down -50 bps at 82.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at just under 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62.9 which is down -40 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$71.684 and down -2.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Review and analysis of pertinent national issues in Twi

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the US and Iran have apparently agreed a 60 day truce, pending Trump's signoff. All the while, both sides traded attacks in the region. The small number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz has virtually dried up. Meanwhile, US jobless claims slipped last week to 185,600 and by about what seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.68 mln people on these benefits, less than one and two years ago. There was a sharp drop in new home sales reported for April, and they were -11.3% lower than year ago levels. Rising mortgage rates is weighing heavily on this sector. But they reported a sharp increase in durable goods orders in April, up +19% from a year ago, up notably from March. This is where we see the full effect of stockpiling as buyers try to get ahead of rising inflation. One reason was a +41% jump in capital goods on the same basis. But excluding defense and aircraft orders, the increase was modest. The second estimate of GDP growth for Q1-2026 is out and it was revised lower, mainly on lower consumer spending and investment levels than in the initial estimate. They now say the US economy expanded +1.6% in the period. They also released the April data for US personal income and personal spending. This showed that personal disposable income fell from March, up +2.5% from a year ago, while personal consumption expenditures rose, up +5.9% from a year ago. In fact, their April PCE inflation measure rose to 3.8%, its highest since May 2023 and the end of the pandemic effect, and prior to that the highest since this data was collated in 2017. Undoubtedly, this has the Fed's attention, especially the accelerating nature of it. US crude oil and petrol stocks fell again last week, but 'only' by about the levels expected. that extends the fall to five consecutive weeks, all substantial, and coming after three prior weeks of modest or no-change outcomes. Retail pump prices for petrol are still +48% higher than at the start of the Iran-US conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz. There was a US Treasury 7yr note auction overnight and the yield increase was not as fierce as yesterday's event. This one delivered a median yield of 4.24% (high 4.29%), up from the 4.12% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. In Canada, their central bank has released and updated Financial Stability Report which found that Canada's financial system has functioned well through a challenging year. Households and businesses remain in stable financial condition, and banks have strengthened their capacity to absorb shocks. Meanwhile they reported that average weekly earnings rose +3.5% in March from a year ago, a faster pace of increase. They have CPI inflation of +2.8% at the same time so Canadian employees are generally staying ahead of the cost pressures. The Korean central bank kept its official rate unchanged yesterday at 2.5%, as expected. Updated Australian household spending data for April shows it fell -1.1% month-on-month (on a current price, seasonally adjusted basis) to be +4.9% higher than in April 2025. In the same period CPI inflation rose 4.2%. The weak outcome is being attributed to the sharp hike in fuel costs, and compensating pullbacks elsewhere. It is their first fall in household spending in four months. And staying in Australia, they said private new capital expenditure rose +6.5% in the March quarter to be +14.6% higher than the March 2025 quarter. This strong growth is largely on the back of significant investment in data centers, up +96% and a new record high. Investment in mining was flat. The Middle East war lead to a -3.4% fall in air passenger demand in April. But Asia/Pacific international demand rose +3.0% from a year ago. For air cargo, demand was up +4.0% despite the turmoil, up +11.3% in the Asia/Pacific region. Global container shipping freight rates rose +3.2% last week from the prior week to be +12% higher than year-ago levels. This is largely driven by rates from China to the EU. Transpacific rates from China to the US West Coast actually fell last week. As did trade volumes. Meanwhile bulk cargo rates rose +4.4% last week, to be a massive +140% higher than a year ago. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.45%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$57 at US$4506/oz. Silver is back up +US$1.50 at just under US$76/oz. Oil prices have fallen -50 USc to just on US$89/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now at US$93.50/bbl and down -US$1.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from yesterday at this time at 59.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +20 bps at just under 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.8 which is up +40 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$73,455 and down -1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.0%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and because Monday is a New Zealand holiday, we'll do this again on Tuesday.

Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news commodity markets are betting all-in that a deal between the US and Iran will unlock the Strait of Hormuz soon. An Iranian State TV report has triggered the optimism. (And even though the US has denied it.) More ships are transiting, but it is still only a fraction of 'normal'. However it is enough to drive the price of crude oil lower. But despite all that, financial markets seem to remain unconvinced, or at least they have turned defensive due to what lies ahead of a resolution. How well any deal will stick between the two parties who have become quite transactional remains to be seen. Certainly the US is unlikely to be trusted to maintain the deal by both Iran, and even its own traditional allies. Iran will be Iran, agreeing but preparing for another attack/fight. The one thing the US/Israeli thing has done is solidify the Iranian regime's position at home. It no longer has internal dissent or street challenges, and it will thank Trump for that. In the US, mortgage applications fell sharply last week, as US 30 year mortgage rates rose. Most of the fall is from the outsized retreat in refinance activity (-18%), although new purchase activity did dip as well. Those mortgage rates rose to their highest level since August 2025. Meanwhile, the ADP tracking of private payrolls showed the good levels continued last week, even if there was a small dip posted. And that is supported by factory survey data out from the Richmond Fed for the mid-Atlantic states area. New order levels rose notable. And firms expected growth in prices paid to moderate slightly over the next 12 months. But there was no improvement in the forward expectations, despite these improvements. Meanwhile the Dallas Fed services sector survey remained quite negative, even if less so in May than in April. But their uncertainty metric is notably less. There was a US Treasury 5yr Note auction overnight and that delivered a yield of 4.13% (4.18% high), up sharply from the 3.90% yield at the prior equivalent event a month ago. In Australia, consumer price inflation came in lower than most analysts were expecting for Aril. It rose 4.2% from a year ago, lower than the March 4.6%, and lower than the expected 4.4%. From March, CPI prices rose +0.4%, also lower in the same way. A key reason is that fuel prices fell -7.0% from March to April, after rising 33% in the previous month. The fall this month includes the halving of the fuel excise on 1 April. Fuel prices are still +23.5% higher than in February and before the impact of the Middle East conflict. Apart from fuel, outsized rises were recorded for 'housing' (+6.3%) and 'clothing' (+5.9%). The main contributors to the annual housing rise were Electricity (+22.5%), New dwellings (+4.7%) and Rents (+3.5%). And staying in Australia, Westpac has been hit with a AU$26 mln civil penalty for not dealing with clients who were struggling financially in a proper way. Remediation of all costs to those clients was AU$1.7 mln. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.48%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today down another -US$49 at US$4450/oz. Silver is down -US$1.50 at just under US$74.50/oz. Oil prices have fallen -US$4.50 to just on US$89.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now at US$95/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is up +60 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +110 bps at 82.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +50 bps at just under 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.4 which is up +60 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$74,765 and down -1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.0%. Join us later today for full coverage of the 2026 Budget release, an election budget of course. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news  traders who claimed to foresee a Trump 'victory' over Iran are getting a lesson in their susceptibility to propaganda. In the Middle East, US and Israeli struck a number of Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, hours after President Donald Trump had suggested negotiations with Tehran over an interim deal were progressing. Renewed aggression there and in Lebanon hardly seems to indicate talks are "going nicely". Both sides are in a chronic violent embrace, despite what they say. Oil prices are rising again; prospects for normalisation have faded significantly. First we should note there was another dairy Pulse auction overnight. This on saw the butter price recover notably, up +2% from the prior week's full auction, and the SMP price fall back notably, down -5% on that same basis. The WMP price dipped -1%. In the US, the Conference Board said its survey of consumer confidence edged down in May. But this dip wasn't quite as much as analysts had expected. Meanwhile the May Dallas Fed factory survey edged up slightly from its languid ("stable") state, a bit less than other similar surveys and less than expected. And the National Activity Index tracked by the Chicago Fed rose in April to its best reading since March 2025. The US Treasury's popular 2 year bond auction today brought sharply higher yields. The median yield today was 4.02% (high was 4.07%), a big shift up from the median 3.75% at the equivalent event a month ago. Across the Pacific, Singapore said its industrial production was up a very healthy +17.6% in April from a year ago, a rising trend and an expansion that is starting to rival Taiwan. And in Taiwan industrial production rose at a +15% rate in April from the same month a year ago, less than in March but still the third-best month ever. The base has been rising spectacularly for more than a year now so the outsized yeay-on-year growth will ease back from here. Their retail sales were up +5.2% in April, extending the outsized improvements to three consecutive months now. In Malaysia, it appears that they have instituted a 10% tariff on imported gold bars, surprising dealers and buyers alike. We should note that the aluminium price pushed up yet again, now very close to the brief pandemic-induced peak. Also tin prices are also near record highs, but this is nothing to do with the Middle East. Rather it relates to an Indonesian crackdown on illegal tin mining there, which has been extensive. They are going after the palm oil industry too, but over financial issues. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.49%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today down -US$64 at US$4499/oz. Silver is down -US$2at just under US$76/oz. Oil prices have risen +US$3.50 to just under US$94/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is up +US$3 to just on US$99.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -40 bps at 81.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at just under 50.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.8 which is down -30 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$75,906 and down -2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news oil prices have slid on hopes of a US-Iran deal. But despite US statements saying talks are "going nicely", Iran seems to be saying otherwise even if they are engaged in talks. But they seem to be talks-about-talks. Supposed insider information says the Strait of Hormuz will still be closed for another 60 days "for mine-clearing" (some say 30 days). And the US is adding new conditions each time the sides meet. Meanwhile, two LNG tankers have passed through the Strait in the past 24 hours. Just a reminder that the US is on a long weekend holiday and we won't be getting data updates from there until tomorrow morning from there. Pre-market activity (futures) is still active however. So first, like Japan, Singapore reported that their April CPI inflation pressure stayed very low and contained, up just +1.8% from a year ago, down -0.3% from March. Fuel costs are a small part of their index. The big mover was for clothing and that fell sharply. Singapore also said its Q1-2026 expansion was +6.0% from the same quarter a year ago, bettering the +5.7% expansion in the previous quarter, and better than forecast (+5.1%). But they are much less bullish on how the year will turn out, revising that to "2%-4%" as Trump's Gulf War takes its toll. But in Malaysia they reported a sharp jump in producer costs. Their producer prices rose +5.4% in April from a year ago, picking up from just a +1.1% rise in March. Prior to that, their PPI had fallen consistently since March 2025. This latest increase was also the most since August 2022, all driven by the mounting disruptions from the war in Iran. In China, they said foreign direct investment fell -10.3% in the first four months of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025. Things got off to a negative start, but regained some initiative in April. (April 2025 was a particularly weak base.) And global demand for yuan-denominated financing is rising, with panda and dim sum bond issuance climbing sharply in early 2026 as borrowers look to diversify away from costly US dollar funding. Panda bond issuance - yuan debt sold on the Chinese mainland by overseas institutions - topped US$13 bln in the first quarter, nearly half of last year's total. Dim sum bonds are those issued outside China, in yuan. They hit US$45 bln in the quarter, also on track to beat the 2025 level. Yuan funding comes with much lower interest rates than US dollar funding. We should probably also note that the Pope has issued an encyclical on how AI should be managed, by politicians and company managers. Like many previous Papal encyclicals, if is likely to be influential in debates about AI. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.47%, down -10 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today up +US$55 at US$4563/oz. Silver is up +US$2.50at just over US$78/oz. Oil prices have fallen -US$6.50 to just on US$90.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is down -US$7.50 to just on US$96.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 81.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just under 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62.1 which is up +10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,502 and up +1.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.2%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of an apparent agreement to wind back the crisis levels in the Persian Gulf. But details are not available. One thing is clear however, the US will be in a significantly worse position than if the Obama deal with Iran had not been torn up by Trump. Follow up statements by Trump that "It isn't even fully negotiated yet" suggest things aren't quite as close as he earlier suggested. And the headline news that one "Supertanker With Iraq Crude Exits Persian Gulf as Talks Continue" highlights how little progress has actually been made. But locally this week will be dominated by two big set piece announcements. First, the RBNZ will review its monetary policy settings and while no-one expects them to change, all eyes will on how they view the current inflation pressures. Markets have a +25 bps hike priced in for July 8. Following that, the Government will deliver its election Budget. It will likely be all "jam today" but couched as 'responsible restraint'. Credit rating agencies will be interested readers, especially around the credibility of the forecasting. And on Friday, there will be the usual month-end data released for April, plus a mountain of March quarter data released. And the RBNZ's Dashboard will also drop on Friday. In Australia, we will get the April CPI data on Wednesday, and the household spending update on Thursday, both expected to be elevated. It will be a busy week in Japan where we will get industrial production, retail sales, consumer confidence, and the unemployment rate. Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea will also decide on monetary policy. Data from China will be relatively light, but we will be interested in their FDI update. We should note that this will be a long weekend holiday in the US, Memorial Day, and their unofficial start of 'summer'. For the record, tradition states that investors should "sell in May and go away" until the end of this period on their Labor Day (September 7). This 'rule' is a warning that their summer financial markets can be volatile. Wall Street will re-open on Wednesday, NZT. Data from the US this week will limited, although PCE data, and the weekly ADP Employment update will be watched closely. As will the durable goods order data. Over the weekend the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to a record low in May, revised down sharply from the earlier and preliminary report. This is the third straight monthly decline. Petrol prices are getting the blame and it's cause, the chaotic Middle East adventure. The cost of living remained the top concern in this survey, with 57% of consumers spontaneously citing high prices as eroding their personal finances. Lower-income consumers and those without college degrees posted the steepest declines, as these groups are more sensitive to rising gas and essentials costs. Critically, consumers grew increasingly worried that inflation would spread beyond fuel prices in the long term. Year-ahead inflation expectations edged up to 4.8% from 4.7%, while long-run expectations climbed to 3.9% from 3.5%. Things may not get easier, even with slightly lower oil prices. Fed governor Waller said he supports removing the "easing bias" language from the Fed's outlook, and the next change could be a hike, even if it is some way off. He followed that up with remarks that it would be "crazy" to lower rates at this time. investors are bullish that the Iran-US war will end soon, but consumers are very negative about how all this is hurting them. Profits are remaining high, insulated from the rising costs, but household living costs are making consumers very grumpy. In Canada, and for a fourth month in a row, retail sales rose in April, but largely because petrol prices are higher. And that is even after the volume of petrol sales fell. In fact, overall sales volumes are trending lower. Canadian producer prices rose a sharp +2.0% in April from March, to be an uncomfortable +11.4% higher than year-ago levels. These changes are worse than expected. Despite all the global pressure their business are under, Japanese consumers avoided the impacts in April. Their inflation edged down to 1.4% from 1.5% in March. Food prices rose the least in 18 months amid a further slowdown in rice costs. After falling sharply in April, South Korean consumer sentiment rebounded in May, although not quite back to levels it was between June 2025 and March 2026. Still, this new level is above every month from December 2021 to May 2025 and was a much stronger bounce-back than was anticipated. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.57%, up +2 bps from this time Saturday. The price of gold will start today down -US$6 at US$4509/oz to be down -US$42 for the week. Silver is down -50 USc at just under US$75.50/oz. Oil prices have firmed +50 USc to just on US$97/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is up at just on US$104/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from Saturday at this time at 58.5 USc and up +10 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are holding at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62 which is down -10 bps from Saturday, up +10 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$76,601 and very little-changed, down just -0.1% from this time Saturday, but down -3.2% from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.4%. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news no-one knows what is going on in the Iran-US 'negotiations' - least of all Trump. Ships are transiting at trickle-pace, but they tend to be large Chinese tankers. The bottom line is essentially 'no progress'. And although the benchmark 10 year bond yields are basically holding, yields for shorter terms are catching up, so a rate flattening is underway. US jobless claims dipped last week, and by marginally more than seasonal factors would have expected. Precautionary stockpiling by manufacturers is currently driving the US factory sector. New order growth slowed slightly but is still higher than normal in May, according to the latest S&P Global PMI for the US. But factory activity has taken a step up so output is rising at its fastest pace in four years. Driving all this is the need to get ahead of surging input costs, which are spiking in dramatic fashion. But the activity surge isn't everywhere. The Philly Fed's factory survey unexpectedly contracted in May. The Kansas City Fed's survey was little-changed from a modest expansion. Both saw very little respite from elevated input costs. US housing starts dipped in April from the good March levels. They are being held up on the same drive to get ahead of expected large cost increases. Across the Pacific in Korea, they are feeling producer price inflation at disarmingly high levels. They rose +2.5% in April to be 6.9% higher than year ago levels. But factory input costs rose an average of +11.3% mainly for fuel and other oil-based inputs. And this is very interesting. After a strong rise in February, Japanese machinery orders were expected to ease back in March, and they did, and by about the expected level. However, export orders remained very strong. They are expecting the April-June quarter to just be level-pegging with the same period a year ago. But this whole machinery manufacturing sector is in an upswing phase that started in 2023 and one that gathered some real impetus from mid-2025. That Japanese factory order data is confirmed in April export data out yesterday. Japan's exports jumped almost +15% to a near-record high of ¥10.5 tln in April, accelerating from an +11.5% gain in March, the fastest pace in three months and topping market forecasts. Exports grew to China (+15.5%), the US (+9.5%), ASEAN (+19.9%), the EU (+26.9%), and India (+8.9%). The May Japanese factory PMI is still expanding quite quickly but cost pressures are surging. In India, their PMI is little changed at a healthy expansion, but they report that further expansion is being capped by this rising cost pressure. EU consumer sentiment has stayed very low in May, even if it did bounce back from the ugly April level. The EU economy is being forecasted to slow down amid rising inflation following the energy shock. The Eurozone factory PMI is still expanding, but less so, and under heavy input cost pressure too. The Australian labour market is weakening with a turn lower in April. The number of employed people fell by -19,000 in April, while the number of unemployed people rose by +33,000. Markets had expected employment to rise by +10,000. Their jobless rate is now 4.5%, the highest in seven months. (The New Zealand jobless rate was 5.3% in March 2026.) The April PMIs are out for Australia, and they show weakening business conditions. The S&P Global factory PMI slowed to a stall with the private sector getting its steepest fall in new business in over four-and-a-half years. The service sector is now in contraction after March's stall. And staying in Australia, there has been an outpouring of voices, a veritable cacophony, claiming the loss of low tax capital gains is an affront, "punishing aspiration". "stifling innovation". Since when did 'aspiration' and 'innovation' rely so heavily on discounted taxes on the gains made from this activity? Inequitable taxes on this activity is just distorting behaviour and it helps misrepresent what is being achieved. It also loads more tax on those that can't avail themselves of these distortions. They all want a "level playing field" - unless the playing field is unlevel in their favour. What we are seeing is a classic lesson for anyone designing a tax system. Make it neutral and fair to start with. Global container freight rates rose +6% last week to be +10% above year-ago levels, driven largely by outbound rates from China to the EU. Bulk freight rates fell -5.7% in the past week, easing after the prior six week run-up reaction to Trump's Gulf War. But that still leaves them +125% higher than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.58%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today up +US$20 at US$4553/oz. Silver is up +US$1 at just under US$77/oz. Oil prices have dipped -50 USc to just over US$97/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now at just on US$103.50/bbl The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 50.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3 which is up +10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,759 and up +0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 1%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news there is optimism the Persian Gulf oil supply may be easing as satellite data showed three supertankers crossing the Strait. Most were Chinese. But there is still 160 tankers trapped in the Gulf as Iran now effectively controls the passage. US moves now depend on Trump's latest mood change. The latest update of US crude oil stocks showed another outsized reduction last week (-7.9 mlb barrels), and again far more than expected (-2.9 mln bbl). Petrol stocks fell too, but more modestly although that extends this decline to 14 straight weeks. US strategic reserves were reduced almost -10 mln barrels last week. And staying in the US, mortgage applications fell last week, all on new purchase applications because home loan interest rate benchmarks jumped. Refinance activity was stable however. Those rising interest rates are a market response to rising inflation. And the latest Fed minutes reveal that most Fed governors are worried too. A majority warned they would likely need to consider raising interest rates if inflation continued to run persistently above their 2% target. They wanted to drop its easing bias and signal its next move could be an interest-rate increase. This puts incoming Fed chairman Warsh in a tough spot because he was appointed to do the opposite. It looks like he won't have the votes. There was a US Treasury 20 year bond auction overnight and that brought slightly higher demand, no doubt in part because the median yield rose to 5.07% with a high of 5.12%. That is up sharply from 4.84% (4.88%) at the prior equivalent event a month ago. Across the Pacific, analysts and cottoning on to how strong Taiwan's export orders are flowing. For April they forecast a +52% rise, but it 'only' came in at +48% from year ago levels. Still these orders ran at their second highest level on record. Meanwhile, China reviewed its loan prime rates& yesterday and kept them both unchanged at record low levels. That means they actually haven't changed in a year now. In Malaysia, their exports surged on manufactured orders. They rose almost +37% to a record high, accelerating sharply from March's upwardly revised +8.4% increase and far exceeding forecasts of +9% for April. This was their best export growth result since August 2022. In Indonesia, their central bank delivered something of a surprise, hiking their policy rate +50 bps when a +25 bps rise was expected. That takes it to 5.25% and back to August 2025 levels. Driving the change was a need to strengthen the rupiah, curb imported inflation risks, and keep domestic inflation within the government's mid-point target of 2.5% (±1%). In Australia, a new labour market data series from employer tax filings shows there were 15.5 mln employee jobs in March, up +1.0% from a year ago, or +147,000 more. They were paid +6.0% more than a year ago. Obviously some of this is for the growth in the paid workforce, and that extra pay is before accounting for inflation. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.57%, down -10 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today up +US$33 at US$4533/oz. Silver is up +US$1.50 at just over US$76/oz. American oil prices have fallen -US$6 to just on US$97.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just over US$104.50/bbl, down -US$5.50. The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62.2 which is up +30 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,559 and up +1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the bond market is dominating the news today with sharply rising long term yields as investors see no end in sight top the war inflation upon us now. The benchmark US Treasury 10 year yield is now up to its highest since the brief October 2025 spike, and before that, it highest since 2023. In those earlier peaks, there was nothing like the fundamental inflationary pressure building now. And the US Treasury 30 bond yield is now at its highest since 2007. And if it lasts, yield asset valuations are at risk, especially real estate. There is already severe valuation pressure in the commercial office market from low demand. A higher cost of money could do widespread damage to these market valuations, globally. But first today, the overnight full Global Dairy Trade auction saw prices rise +0.6% in USD terms, rise +1.55% in NZD terms. This is a stable commodity in a sea of instability elsewhere. The outcome may have been helped by the low volumes on offer, down -15% from the same auction a year ago. In the US, private employers added an average of 42,250 jobs per week in the four weeks to May 2, up from 33,000 in the prior period, according to the ADP Research. Strong hiring in healthcare is a key feature. US pending home sales rose +1.4% in April from March to be +3.2% higher than year-ago levels. But the recent modest rises are not yet enough to make back the big falls in December and the small fall in January. The sharply rising 30 year bond rates will likely affect this market going forward. In Canada and as expected, their headline CPI inflation rose 2.8% in April from 2.4% in March and the highest in two years, But this is notably lower than the expected 3.1% rate and probably takes the pressure off their central bank to raise rates. In Japan, they said their GDP came in with a +2.1% (real) annual expansion are in Q1-2026, up from the +0.8% in Q4-2025. A rise was anticipated but only to +1.7%. In China, the always excellent Bill Bishop has used AI (Claude) to compare what the Chinese think was accomplished, with what the US think. It is here. There is some overlap. But there is clearly much confusion on what was actually agreed. Basically we should expect both sides to accuse the other of reneging - and in turn, the great rivalry will just fester on. In Malaysia, their inflation came in at 1.9% in April , at the low end of their expected level and only a modest rise from March. It was their most however since July 2024. In Europe, they posted a smaller trade surplus than expected as exports underwhelmed in March and imports rose. It was a much lower surplus that they recorded a year earlier. In Australia, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment survey is picking up a range of recent trends. Sentiment improved marginally despite the fuel shock, but within that more people are downbeat on their economy. The Canberra Budget didn't have a big impact though. Job loss fears are still elevated even if slightly less so. But homebuyer sentiment is down sharply to deeply pessimistic levels. And consumer house price expectations have softened even if they are still positive. A key thing to watch across the ditch is the widening sentiment gap between young and old. The ‘baby boomer' and ‘Generation X' cohorts are extremely weak (angry). Sentiment amongst ‘Millennials' is only modestly pessimistic. But ‘Generation Z' is outright positive they note. Rich people whingeing over losing their tax advantages in the latest Australian Federal Budget is becoming a feature of public discourse there, especially in the real estate sector. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.67%, up +8 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today down -US$47 at US$4500/oz. Silver is down -US$2 at just over US$74.50/oz. American oil prices have fallen -US$3.50 to just on US$103.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just over US$110/bbl, down only -50 USc. The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are also up +10 bps at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.9 which is down -30 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$76,771 and up just +0.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news there has been no improvement in the backdrop to the global economy. To open the new week, oil prices have risen after Trump warned that Tehran is running out of time to reach a deal he likes, while Iranian media reports indicated the two sides remain far apart in negotiations. Shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, keeping supplies tight. In the US, the NY Fed's regional Business Leaders Survey shows that the service sector there is continuing to contract, but now at a lesser pace. Activity has been contracting there since late 2024. Inflationary pressures remained persistent, with firms reporting steep increases in input costs and still-elevated selling prices. Staying tin the US, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which measures builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes, rose in May from April (which was its lowest level since September 2025). They too complain about sharply elevated input costs. And we should probably note that Elon Musk has lost his case against Sam Altman and OpenAI to claim the company. The jury quickly decided Must had no case. In China, new home prices across the 70 cities they reference shrank -3.5% in April from a year earlier, following a -3.4% decline in the previous month. This is the 34th consecutive month of contraction. It is also the sharpest contraction pace since May 2025. The weakness in their property sector goes on and on. The pace of decline in their existing home market is even faster. Four a fourth month, China's electricity production fell from the previous month. But it was +2.6% higher than the same month a year ago. This is a good reference point to assess their industrial production, which they said rose +4.1% in April from a year ago. But that was the slowest they have reported for an April since 2022. Fixed asset investment fell -1.8% in April on that same basis. At the same time, they said retail sales fell -0.5% in April after a -0.1% decline in March. Chinese banks now have an average net interest margin of 1.4%, according to the latest data as at March 2026. That is news because it is a record low. (For perspective, the New Zealand industry NIM is 2.3%.) Singapore said its non-oil exports rose a fast +24.5% in April from a year ago, up sharply from the +15.3% pace in March. This was the eighth consecutive month of growth and the fastest pace in fourteen years, with electronics the growth leader. In Australia, Cotality reported that 1,939 capital city homes went to auction last week, an -11% drop from the previous week, but still tracking higher than a year ago (+8.7%) when 1,784 home auctions were held. The preliminary clearance rate rose 1.1 percentage points to 57.5%, still a soft result but with highly mixed outcomes across different cities. This was the fifth time in the past seven weeks that the early clearance rate had held below the 60% mark and the third lowest result for the year-to-date. The Aussie Budget signals may have contributed to the mood.  The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.59%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$8 at US$4547/oz. Silver is up +US$1 at just over US$76.50/oz. American oil prices have risen +US$1.50 to just over US$107/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just over US$110.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are also up +30 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.2 which is up +30 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$76,661 and down -1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.6%. It turns out Trump's investment partners are enabling Iran to access the global financial system and evade US sanctions. Iran's Nobitex has processed at least US$2.3 billion through Tron and BNB Chain, blockchain ledgers started by backers of the Trump family's World Liberty Financial. Of course there will be no Justice Department investigation. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news financial market sentiment deteriorated sharply at the end of trading last week as war-driven inflation is being priced in more aggressively, because it will persist longer than earlier assumptions. Markets are shifting to a much more sceptical position on Trump policies & actions given the extended track record of failures. Higher long rates tend to feed on themselves when stress (like the Iran War) is elevated. And the US Fed is in no position to cut rates; in fact markets are guessing the chances of a hike are rising. These two pressures are pushing rates up. But first in the week ahead, locally we will be following updated population data this week, producer prices, credit card data, household and business expectations survey results, and retail sales, all for March. In Australia, the key data coming is for their April labour market, along with a key consumer sentiment survey and a key inflation expectations survey. Globally, apart from watching what is or isn't going on in the Persian Gulf, we will be tracking how bond markets are reacting to the Trump turmoil, US regional surveys and PMIs, and the UofM sentiment survey update. From China, there will be a raft of key data updates this coming week. There will be key industrial data out in Japan. And there will be PMI data out for India too. Indonesia's central bank will announce its latest monetary policy decision late Wednesday night. Over the weekend, analysts have been able to assess the results from the China-US summit. Those haven't been very positive. And it says a lot that Russian president Putin is in Beijing this week. Essentially the takeaways from the Beijing summit meetings between Xi and Trump have been underwhelming. It is notable that the Chinese have made no mention of the trade claims by the US, although there will be some. And they will be hoping Trump throws Taiwan under the bus after they stroked his ego. Meanwhile, the 'negotiations' between the US and Iran seem to have stalled completely. So no resolution to the Strait of Hormuz blockades. Oil prices are settling in, even rising, on fears of a much broader energy crisis. It has now been two months since Trump said the US would provide transit insurance for the Strait of Hormuz crossing. So far it has done no deals; zero. In the US, April industrial production jumped +0.7% from March to be +1.4% higher than year ago levels, and much more than expected. But it is all "business equipment" (read: AI data centers). This will be 'good' if it generates lasting increased productivity, but the rest of their factory sector is going backwards, even with 'tariff protections'. Consumer goods manufacturing shrank in April (-0.2%) from a year ago, construction stalled in April. In the New York region, there is a scramble to stockpile ahead for fast-rising cost increases. Business activity grew strongly there in May. US stockpiling may end up giving their Q2-2025 economic activity data an unexpected boost for the quarter. In Canada, housing starts jumped an impressive +17% in April from March to an annualised 279,300 units in April from the previous month, well above market forecasts of 240,000 units. But it is just back to year-ago levels (281,800). In Japan, machine tool orders surged +45% in April from a year ago, far exceeding market expectations. It maintains the much higher level it reached in March which was an all-time record, and by quite a margin. Both domestic and foreign orders leapt the at the same pace. Japan's producer prices rose +4.9% in April from a year ago, a surge from an upwardly revised +2.9% increase in March. That is an all-time high in a record that stretches back to 1960. Markets had expected a +3% rise. The usual suspects were the cause. Indian exports rose sharply in April, and were near their record high levels in March 2022. They had very good increases in both goods and service exports. Imports rose fast too, probably related to the rising cost of oil. Overall, their trade deficit shrank slightly in the month. The Russian economy is contracting, again. It is giving all the signs it is exhausted by its war on Ukraine, and this is despite its higher oil revenues. Manpower is a serious and probably unsolvable issue now that they have suffered excessive battlefield deaths. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.60%, unchanged from this time Saturday. For the week this is a +24 bps jump, one of the largest one-day jumps for quite some time. The price of gold will start today down -US$15 at US$4539/oz and down -US$184 for the week. Silver is down -US$1.50 at just over US$75.50/oz, down -US$5 for the week. American oil prices have stayed up at just over US$105.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -50 USc at just over US$109/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$99.50/bbl and US$101/bbl respectively. The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from Saturday at this time at 58.4 USc, down -120 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 81.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just under 50.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under  61.9 which is unchanged from yesterday, down -90 bps for the week to its lowest since early April.. The bitcoin price starts today at US$78,024 and down -1.5% from this time Saturday, down -4.2% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.6%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Star Wars: Maul – Shadow Lord Star Wars has become an increasingly Televisual universe and who would have thought so many years ago, that animation would actually give us some of the most epic and anticipated match-ups the fandom has ever wanted. Maul: Shadow Lord is the latest animated offering from Lucasfilm this time exploring a part of the history we know very little about. And the machinations of one of the coolest and most intimidating villains: Dryden Vos. Also Maul is in there too jumping around and being all mopey and shit. Will this show align into a unified Solo inclusive Timeline? will anyone care? GONK! Synopsis Set shortly after the Clone Wars, we follow the former Sith Lord as he rebuilds his criminal syndicate, Crimson Dawn, during the early reign of the Empire. Based on a Force vision, Maul targets the underworld, confronts Inquisitors, and seeks to corrupt a disillusioned Twi’lek Jedi Padawan, Devon Izara, to be his new apprentice. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zjw8vciJgKY A huge shout-out to the Sith lords and ladies who join in with our moderated live-chat during the Twitch stream, each Tuesday night at 7:30pm AEST. And especially to those who have decided to stop their search for errant Jedi and other dangerous insurgents to be super lovely, generous humans! Thanks for supporting us directly via our Ko-Fi jar and now also by subscribing on Twitch! You ALL are amazing, whether you’re working for the Empire, or just some other massive criminal organizations. like the U.S. Government… If you like what we do, drop us a sub!  Every bit of your support helps us to (hopefully) keep entertaining you!  Don’t fret if you can’t be there for the recording though as you can catch them on Youtube usually later that very night. Make sure to subscribe so you don’t miss them! https://youtu.be/DkVepshZhGc?si=cW9EosO8bLd1gd0v WE WANT YOUR FEEDBACK! Send in voicemails or emails with your opinions on this show (or any others) to info@theperiodictableofawesome.com Please make sure to join our social networks too!  We’re on: Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TPToA/ Twitter: www.twitter.com/TPToA Facebook: www.facebook.com/PeriodicTableOfAwesome Instagram: www.instagram.com/theperiodictableofawesome/

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the US-China summit in Beijing is underway and so far, the results have been underwhelming. Xi warned Trump about US support for Taiwan, and a big jet order for Boeing wasn't quite what was expected, causing Boeing's share price to fall today (-3.6%). The travelling CEO's seem to be impressed with China's opportunities, rather than Trump getting China to invest in the US. But it is only day one, so more may come of this visit. In the US data out overnight shows there were 190,600 initial jobless claims last week, less than seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.7 mln people on these benefits, less than a year ago and about the same as two years ago. Given how this is tracking so different to the US household labour force survey, part of the jobless claims easing can be attributed to tougher qualification standards. US retail sales rose marginally in April from March to be +4.5% higher than year ago levels. Higher dollar sales at petrol stations were a key factor. The timing of one-off tax refunds probably played a part too. This is a gain that is higher than the 3.8% US CPI. Business inventories rose as well (the data is for March). Retail inventories did too. But both are up less than the sales gains, so the inventory to sales ratio is improving. In China, banks haven't been lending at the rate expected. New yuan loans by Chinese banks fell by a net -¥10 bln in April, and much less than the expected +¥300 bln, and less than the +¥285 bln in April 2025. This is quite an unexpectedly variation and turn down in momentum, and only the third time on record this has happened. One reason is that there is a shift to corporate bond financing, away from bank financing. In Australia, their competition regulator has prevailed in a case it brough against supermarket giant Coles claiming its discount claims were a sham. This judgement is sure to echo in New Zealand. The ACCC has a parallel case pending judgement against Woolworths. Meanwhile the peak Australian labour union, the ACTU, has amended its claim for a minimum wage rise to +6% before the Fair Work Commission, taking the claimed rate to AU$26.45/hour (NZ$32.25). Obviously, the change is in response to rising inflation. Global container freight rates were up +12% last week to be +14% higher than year-ago levels. Surcharging for fuel is the key reason for the rises although this is also the time the northern hemisphere "peak season surcharges (PSS) start to be applied. Bulk cargo rates shifted higher again last week as well, up +5.4% and are now at levels we had during the pandemic stresses The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.46%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today down -US$12 at US$4678/oz. Silver is down -US$3 at just under US$85/oz. American oil prices are holding up at just over US$101.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$106/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday at this time at 59.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 81.9 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just under 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62.5 which is down -10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$81,564 and up +2.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.1%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news commodity markets are signaling more intense stress with copper and sulphur jumping to new all-time highs and aluminium jumping to near its brief pandemic spike. Tightening supply from the Middle-East standoff is driving the cost of these fundamentals up. Today, Trump is in Beijing where heavily choreographed set pieces are play out ahead of the formal discussions. Trump got welcomed by a non-Politburo member, the first time China has done that. So far he is being treated just like any other visiting head of state, rather than the special senior welcomes by his predecessors. And China is organising one of its tankers to exit the Strait of Hormuz in defiance of the US blockade, right at the time these meetings take place. US mortgage applications were little-changed last week, but with this week's push higher in benchmark interest rates, they are likely to fall when reported next week. American producer prices were up +6.0% in April from a year ago, getting a +1.4% shove in April from March. Distorted input costs from Trumps Gulf War are embedding uncompetitive pricing in American-made goods. Only the pandemic surge has been greater (also on Trump's watch.) It isn't clear right now why American producer prices are rising faster than just about everywhere else, but history will eventually explain that. US crude oil stocks took another outsized tumble last week according to official EIA monitoring. Petrol stocks there fell sharply too. (These sharp drops are confirmed by industry data too.) The industry is raking in record profits on these lower volumes. Why the US, a net petroleum producer, is feeling the brunt of these price hikes is a classic study in oligopoly power. (And see this investigation.) Meanwhile, UST 30yr bond yields have risen above 5% on secondary markets. Apart from the pandemic spike, this is the first time they have done so since 2007, so a two decade high. The overnight US Treasury 30 year bond auction delivered a medium yield of 4.99% (top bid 5.05%), up from 4.82% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. And we should note that Kevin Warsh is now the Fed Chairman. But ex-boss Powell is still there. Given the Trump-induced inflation surge, he is unlikely to be able to deliver on Trump's demand for lower US interest rates. In Canada, their central bank says they see no evidence that AI is having a material impact on their jobs market - yet, anyway. For them, the benefits are outweighing the costs. EU industrial production rose in March from February, but that wasn't enough to counter the outlier faster rise a year ago, so it ended down -1.0% year-on-year. An outsized fall in Germany twisted these results. In its May monthly report, OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, joining other forecasters such as the IEA in cutting expectations due to the Iran war. In Australia, the wealthy are reeling after their latest Budget signaled a levelling of the tax playing field and the wind-down of concessions for wealth. To be fair, these are to be unwound over many years, but the big end of town is furious they are losing their perks. Certainly, those dependent on the property market can see an end to the gravy train. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.47%, unchanged from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$12 at US$4690/oz. Silver is up +US$3 at just over US$88/oz. American oil prices are holding up at just over US$101.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is at just over US$106/bbl, which is down -US$1.50. The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday at this time at 59.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -60 bps at 81.7 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just under 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62.6 which is down -10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$79,447 and down -1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.7%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news oil prices are still rising as the two sides dig in in the Persian Gulf with no obvious off-ramp for this toxic situation. And hot on the heels of what is being seen as this humiliation of the US in the Middle East, Trump is heading to Beijing where the Chinese are waiting to attempt to get the US separated from Taiwan. Their chances seem better because China seems much less reliant on the inward-looking US. But first, the overnight dairy Pulse auction brought little-change in prices from last week's full auction event. In the US, their April CPI inflation rose slightly more than expected, coming in 3.8% higher than year-ago levels and a three year high. Trump's war pushed fuel costs up (+17.9%). But it is pushing non-fuel costs up too with core inflation its highest in 7 months. Electricity prices are up +6.1%. (Remember, this data is from the Trump-friendly 'new management', so we should remain sceptical.) The weekly ADP Pulse monitoring reports that the private sector added +33,000 jobs in the last week of April, keeping up the page it has reported for the prior five weeks. An new monitoring shows it is not a good time to be young in the US. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was little-changed in April and near its 11-month low of 95.8. Analysts had expected a small improvement, but it was not to be with survey respondents concerned about rising inflation, and affordability stress on their customers. Overall US household debt was basically steady in Q1-2026 according to the latest update. But their Federal Government debt is increasing in cost and at a faster face. The overnight auction for their ten-year bonds came in at 4.41% median yield, up from 4.23% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. The May USDA WASDE report exposes the risks to American agriculture from creeping changes to their climate. They now concede that the US wheat crop will be sharply lower this coming season. Reductions from the EU, Argentina, and Australia are being forecast too. Corn production is likely to be lower too, although that is off this year's record harvests. All this pressure probably means there will be no US Fed rate cuts for the foreseeable future. If there are any movements, rises are the more likely. Across the Pacific, Japanese household spending turned worryingly lower in March as inflation started to bite and their households turned risk-averse. They are saving more. Household spending there fell -2.9% in March, much more than the -1.8% drop in February and below the expected -1.3% retreat. This is the fourth straight decrease and the largest. India's CPI inflation rate inched up to 3.5% in April from March's 3.4%, not the big rise (to 3.8%) that was anticipated by market watchers. In Germany, their ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment was expected to get more negative in May that in April, but in fact it got less negative, which was a market surprise. Economic expectations are brightening, they say. In Australia, they released a fairly ambitious Budget overnight, doing more needed reform than anticipated. But it is still a budget in deficit, even if less so. With some unusual bravery, they are tackling stubborn policy areas and will no doubt have to use some political capital to do so. Redistribution pain will bring howls from the usual suspects at the top end of the wealth spectrum. They have been aided by stronger than expected starting point from tax flows from commodities and corporate good health. Here is one less-partisan analysis. But accelerating cost pressures are squeezing margins and demand is cooling, with the latest NAB Monthly Business Survey signaling a tougher operating environment for Australian businesses. This April survey shows purchase cost growth lifted sharply to +4.5% in April, outpacing product price growth at +1.8%. Business conditions fell while confidence marginally but it is still deeply negative (in fact, its worst since the pandemic). Those surveyed reported that forward orders fell further in April to be down sharply since February and giving up all the gradual gains achieved over the past year. Only mining orders rose and to be fair these were outsized gains in that sector. (Later today, we expect to get the Westpac consumer sentiment survey results.) The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.47%, up another +6 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today down -US$44 at US$4678/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at just under US$85/oz. American oil prices are up another +US$3 at just over US$101.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is at just over US$107.50/bbl, also up +US$3. The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from yesterday at this time at 59.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just under 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62.7 which is down -20 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$80,465 and down -1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the Iranians seem to be sucking Trump into a place he can't extract himself from, far from his earlier claims of 'total victory'. First up today, US existing come sales came in at a modest level again in April, and undershot what analysts were expecting. High mortgage interest rates are probably the reason for the soft demand. Still, they did sell at an annualised rate of just on 4 mln dwellings which is enough to sustain the sector. Unsold inventory is rising however, now at 16 weeks sales, and has been rising for all of 2026 and is now at 1.35 mln units. There was another US Treasury bond auction earlier today, and it was notable that demand is flagging, down -5% from the prior event. This time this 3 year bond achieved a median yield of 3.92%, up from 3.85% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. Inflation's impact in the US has officials scrambling. US petrol taxes are said to be on the radar for cutbacks. And the high cost of beef is pushing the US to sharply cut tariffs and quotas on imported beef. Both are effective acknowledgements that tariffs are hurting Americans more than their trading partners. However, given current demand and supply situations, it seems neither move will likely result in lower prices for US consumers. In Canada, their central bank runs a 'market participants survey' quarterly, and in the latest of these professionals now see geopolitical tensions more of a threat to their economy that the trade tensions with the US. They also saw only a modest +1.6% economic expansion this year. China's inflation is rising, noticeably now. Today they said their April CPI came in up +1.2% from a year ago, with fuel costs up +4.6% on that year-ago basis. But in April from March, fuel costs rose +3.5% in just one month. Things are hotter for producer costs which were up +3.5% year-on-year, and up +2.1% month-on-month. These are big sifts because it has been negative since October 2022. China's vehicle sales came in a 2.525 mln in April, about average aver the past three years, but marginally lower than year-ago levels which was an outsized period. On the commodities front, copper shot up to a record high today, and aluminium, nickel and zinc are also rising at the same time. Sulphur, a key ingredient for all mining and processing activity has shot up to a record high again, and approaching three times its cost of a year ago, up double from the start of Trump's Gulf War. Urea, which also spiked to mid April, has come back quite a bit since then. Trump is on his way to Beijing for a summit with Xi, but he is going is quite a weakened state - but he probably doesn't realise it. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.41%, up +5 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$8 at US$4722/oz. Silver is up +US$5 at just under US$85.50/oz. American oil prices are up +US$3 at just under US$98.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is holding at just over US$104.50/bbl, up +US$3.50. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday, at this time at 59.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 82.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.9 which is little-changed from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$81,983 and up +0.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.4%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that the Strait of Hormuz is still essentially shut with Trump's war on Iran far from resolved. The claims of 'ceasefires' merely propaganda exercises. Rolling skirmishes mean no shipping can get insurance, despite offers of safe passage. No-one respects anyone in a region where trust has evaporated. Locally this week, the big data insights will come from the RBNZ's survey of inflation expectations on Wednesday, migration and travel activity data on Thursday, and a first look at inflation on Friday via Stats NZ's selected price tracking. We will also get the factory PMI on Friday. In Australia, the key events will be the Federal Budget on Tuesday preceded by the Commbank profit result. There will also be consumer and business sentiment surveys out this week. In the US, it will be all about their April CPI and PPI, along with updates for retail sales and industrial production In India, they will also release CPI data. From Japan look out for household spending and PPI data too, and machine tool order updates. In China, we are expecting April updates for CPI, PPI and new yuan loan data. Over the weekend, China released its April export data and it was strong. While the US is turning inward, China is seizing the opportunities of their mistake. China's exports rose +14% in April to a record high, picking up from March's +2.5% growth despite the disruptions from the Trump Gulf War. And China's imports surged +25% on the same year-on-year basis, a second straight monthly record and confirming resilient domestic demand. It is all very impressive. China's exports to us were up only +3.8% from a year ago, but their imports from us were up +14.5. China's exports to Australia were up +36% and their imports were up +20%, but that still left Australia with a very large surplus with China. China's exports to the US were down -10.4%, and their imports down a similar -10.2%. They seem to have reduced their reliance on goods from the US to now just 9.8% of their total imports. No wonder US exports are faltering. Over the weekend, the official data from the US showed they added +115,000 payroll jobs in April at the headline level, above expectations of a +62,000 gain and following a +185,000 increase in March. It was the first back-to-back monthly gain in nearly a year, and on an 'actual' payroll basis it was stronger again. Their jobless rate was stable at 4.3%. But we should remember that all this data comes from an agency where Trump fired its head because he didn't like the results and this latest data is under the 'new management'. An independent professional review has confirmed there are distortions growing from this agency. Employment rose in health care, logistics, and in the retail trade while it fell in the manufacturing and government sectors. But if you include those not in payroll employment (self-employed etc.) there was no change on an 'actual' basis, a fall of -226,000 on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Their underclass is really struggling. And you can see that in the latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for May which fell again and to a record low. The fall from April wasn't large, coming in a scant 1.6 index points below April's reading but it was comparable to the pandemic trough reached in June 2022. Year-ahead inflation expectations are for 4.5%, a touch less than in April. In Canada, their employment fell -18,000 in April, but more people entered their job market, raising their jobless rate to 6.9%. In India, banks are lending freely, with loan growth up +16% from a year ago. For all its growth narrative, India's stock exchanges are reporting serious 2026 declines, unlike most other global markets. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.36%, unchanged from this time Saturday, down -2 bps for the week.  The price of gold will start today down -US$9 at US$4714/oz, up +US$114 for the week. Silver is little-changed at just under US$80.50/oz, up +US$4.50 for the week. American oil prices are little-changed at just under US$95.50/bbl, down -US$7 for the week, while the international Brent price is holding at just over US$101/bbl, down -US$7.50 for the week. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from Saturday, at this time at 59.7 USc, up +70 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at just on 50.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.9 which is up +10 bps from Saturday but up +40 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$81,392 and up +1.6% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low however at just under +/- 0.6%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news American households are struggling as inflation pressures consume their reserves. In the US there were 181,000 new initial jobless claims last week, about what seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.735 mln people on these benefits, lower than at this time last year, but still above two year-ago levels. And there were 83,000 reported job cuts in April, a bit above the average over the past year. For a second month in a row, AI is the key reason for shedding jobs now. Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations in the US rose in April and for a second month to 3.6% in April which is their highest since October 2023. Inflation uncertainty also increased at the one-year-ahead horizon. Income expectations are up less than 3%, so on average most people there expect inflation will set them back from where they are. US consumer debt jumped in March by much more than expected, driven by a +9.1% surge in credit card debt. The big end of town is noticing. Executives across retail, restaurants and packaged goods are increasingly worried about American shoppers with tighter budgets amid surging fuel prices caused by Trump's Gulf War. “They're literally running out of money at the end of the month,” one said. Across the Pacific, China's FX reserves jumped in April to just over US$3.4 tin after the unexpected March dip, and back up in its rising trend. This is their largest gain in 28 months. But it is still off its US$4 tln level in mid 2014. Gold holdings increased again by another +8 tonnes. The central bank of Malaysia reviewed its monetary policy late yesterday and kept its official rate unchanged at 2.75%. And Malaysian discount airline AirAsia said it has ordered 150 Airbus aircraft worth US$19 bln, and said it has an option to order another 150 from Airbus. Orders like this are being driven by the need for fuel efficiency. The central bank of Norway unexpectedly raised its policy rate by +25 bps to 4.25% at its overnight meeting, defying market expectations for no change. They said inflation remains too high at 3.6% and is likely to stay elevated and action is needed now to keep it closer to its 2% target. In the EU, the volume of retail sales fell in March from February to be up just 1.9% from year ago levels. The lower volume of fuel sales was the key reason driving the recent reversal. Non-food, non-fuel activity was actually up an impressive +3.0% for the year. In Germany they posted an impressive factory order intake for March, up +6.3% from the same month a year ago and resuming the upward trend they have had since August 2025. Australia said its exports fell -2.7% in March from February as rural exports plunged -11.6%. Also, non-monetary gold exports dropped -6.1%. That makes its March merchandise exports -2.2% lower than year-ago levels. Meanwhile, imports rose +14%. That means they recorded a -AU$1.8 bln trade deficit for the month, far larger than the expected +$4.2 bln surplus and the first monthly deficit since 2017. The import surge of "ADP equipment" totaling $4.8 bln in March (likely for data centers), is a key reason. Meanwhile, the Aussie government has imposed punitive tariffs of up to 82% on Chinese coil steel exports in a major effort to shield local manufacturers from low-cost competition from China that receive 'unfair' Chinese government subsidies. Global container freight rates rose +3% last week to be +10% higher than year-ago levels. Outbound China rates are rising again. Bulk cargo rates were up +11.5% over the past week to be +112% higher than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.40%, up +5 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$17 at US$4697/oz. Silver is up +US$2.50 at just over US$79.50/oz. American oil prices are up +50 USc at just on US$96/bbl, while the international Brent price is little-changed at US$101.50/bbl. Oil company Shell announced quarterly earnings overnight, more than doubling them to US$6.9 bln in the three months to March, from Q4-2025's US$3.2 bln. Clearly more than 'cost increases' are being passed on at the pump. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday at this time at 59.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at just on 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.8 which is unchanged from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$79,843 and down -1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.4%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Review and analysis of pertinent national issues in Twi

Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news oil prices have tumbled as the US seems to give up on most of its stated objectives, including the promise of safe-passage for shipping, in a u-turn to extract itself from a losing hand. Crude oil prices are down more than -10% on the news, although it needs to be noted that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. It is just market euphoria. We now need to start worrying about a permanent Iranian transit tax after the US walks away. The Gulf States who supported the US are about to be thrown under the bus. Financial markets don't care of course and like the end of the adventure. US mortgage applications fell again last week as interest rates rise, both for refinance activity and new home purchases. This takes this activity back to September 2024 levels. The US ADP employment report said their private labour market added +109,000 jobs in April, marginally more than the +99,000 expected. This sets the official non-farm payrolls report up for an expected +60,000 rise, with upside. Most of the new jobs are coming from aggressive hiring in their healthcare sector. After the prior week's outsized fall, this week the EIA reports another notable fall in US crude oil stocks. In fact, every metric fell other than US crude oil imports. There is certainly no relief at US petrol pumps yet, with prices now up more than +50% from their pre-Trump Gulf War levels. We have earlier noted the politicalisation of US official data, especially of the Bureau of Labor Statistics who produce CPI, PPI and labour market data. We weren't the only ones. A new analytical report has been looking at how this has affected the quality of their data and concluded there is a worrying impact from this trend. So we need to be sceptical, and the next of their big set piece reports is the April non-farm payrolls. This means we will need to rely more on other non-Trump Administration high frequency market data. In Canada, their widely-watched Ivey PMI surged into a strong expansion in April and by more than expected. In China, new analysis shows Chinese companies are reporting lackluster earnings, with overall net profit declining in 2025 for the third consecutive year as the property slump dragged on and more retailers posted losses, hurting employment and the economy as a whole. Meanwhile, China's Golden Week holiday has just ended, and reports are that there was less air travel this year - but very much more high-speed rail travel. Overall domestic holiday activity was up +3.5% with air travel falling -5.7% year-on-year to 10.5 million passengers between May 1 and May 5, railway journeys up +4.6% to 1.06 billion. And staying in China, their non-official S&P Global services PMI reports that their services sector expanded faster as new business picked up in April and the year-ahead outlook improved. Cost pressures remained modest from this giant sector. In India, their services sector saw new orders and output expand at a quicker pace supporting hiring activity. They also reported a mild reduction in inflationary pressures. (Things aren't so good in the Russian services sector.) In the EU, they report rising cost pressure for producers, all related to higher fuel prices. Overall they are up +2.0% in April from a year ago, but up +3.2% from March. There is quite a wide range of impacts depending on the country. Internationally, a new report tallying global debt found it at US$353 tln, and a strong shift away from US treasuries and toward big new demand for Japanese and European government bonds. They also found the overall debt:GDP ratio remained stable. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.35%, down -7 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$121 at US$4680/oz. Silver is up +US$4 at just over US$77/oz. American oil prices are down -US$6.50 at just on US$95.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$8.50 and now at US$101.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is up +60 bps from yesterday at this time at 59.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at just on 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.8 which is up +50 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$81,399 and up +0.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.3%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that although the US claims the ceasefire with Iran is holding and "ships are lining up to transit", in fact, very little is moving in the area between Iran's red lines. And the most high profile transit in the past 24 hours was an Iranian tanker. Still, the US claims resonated on Wall Street, and stocks rose, benchmark rates fell. But first today, there was another full dairy auction earlier today, a small one where volumes offered and sold were the least in fifteen years, since mid 2011. But prices were up +1.5% in USD, up +1.6% in NZD. Butter prices continued to slide, but there were good gains for SMP, WMP and mozzarella. These gains end two consecutive full events where prices fell. US job openings fell, although to be fair, but less than expected. But even then, they are back at levels they had in April 2018, which is less than it seems because their labour force is so much larger now. There were two services PMI reports out for the US overnight (ISM and S&P Global) and both showed that new business intakes fell for first time in two years as war in the Middle East and inflation hit demand. But both were positive even if less so that in the prior two months The reason for the retreat cam be found in the latest April logistics managers report, where freight costs leapt, taking this index back to pandemic-stress levels. The US RCM/TIPP economic optimism index fell yet again, down to levels last seen in early 2024. It has retreated steadily since December 2024. It's sponsor's report called it 'steady' but that is gilding it somewhat. US exports and imports were little-changed in April, but both are in rising trends even if imports rose slightly more than exports (which rose largely on petroleum exports). Their trade deficit was widened. Canada also reported export data and that came in at a one year high, and unexpectedly good result, largely on the back of high exports of petroleum and gold. Imports fell back in April but from an unusually high March level. The result was a good trade surplus, their first since September 2025. Singapore reported March retail sales late yesterday and they were better than expected with a good +4.8% rise from a year ago. That represents a real gain because their CPI inflation was 1.8% in March. As widely anticipated, the RBA raised its cash rate target by +25 bps to 4.35% late yesterday. It was a split decision with one voting member wanting to hold the rate unchanged. But they face sharply higher inflation threats that seem to be growing and prior rate hikes have done little to quell those. However they have restrained their housing market enthusiasm and this latest hike is expected to put the brakes on that further. Traders still believe there is at least one more rate increase this year despite the RBA saying their policy was still only mildly restrictive. This comes after the March CPI rose +4.6%, and yesterday they reported that household spending remained high over the year in nominal terms, up +6.3% compared to March 2025 (and the highest since January 2023). Most of this is 'price' and much of it relates to a +32.8% increase in monthly fuel prices. But in volume terms, they say fuel purchases are lower, down -1.3% in March from February. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.42%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today up +US$37 at US$4559/oz. Silver is unchanged at just over US$73/oz. American oil prices are down -US$3 at just on US$102/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$3.50 and now at US$110/bbl. It is hard to see these prices easing further given the sharp fall in global oil reserves recently. Even the future process of building them back will add to demand and prices. The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3 which is up +20 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$81,300 and up +0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.3%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news conflict in the Persian Gulf has erupted again with attacks on US naval forces trying to open the waterway for US flagged vessels. Iran also hit the UAE. Iran also warned that it will tighten its control over the Strait. So far there have been 28 attacks and 6 near-misses. The oil price has risen, equities have fallen, and benchmark interest rates rose. How China reacts will be important now. So far they are bolstering their support of Tehran via trade and payments support, and banning their companies from respecting the US sanctions threats. In the US, factory orders rose in March and by more than expected as the stockpiling trend got started. They are now almost +3.7% higher on a nominal basis than a year ago. This data matches the recent factory PMI data we have reported earlier. US April vehicle sales came it at an annualised 15.9 mln rate, slightly less than for March and less than expected. This was down -7.2% from April 2025, but holding at about the post-pandemic average which in turn is about -10% lower than pre-pandemic levels. The US Fed loan officers survey may have disappointed some observers. Earlier in the year, indications were for rising demand. But the results of the April survey found little-change. At least it didn't find softer demand. In Canada, they have announced a $C1 bln support program for manufacturers hit by the swinging Trump tariffs on their steel products, a sector hit particularly hard. Another C$500 mln in regional support was announced at the same time. In South Korea, we got another very good factory PMI for April. The S&P Global version rose to 53.6 in April from 52.6 in March, the strongest expansion since February 2022. But the scramble for more orders, and production is to get ahead of incoming inflation pressure. In fact, input costs and output price inflation surged to its highest in the 22-year history of this monitoring. In Taiwan, the same scramble is underway, with production and sales rising sharply as firms look to stockpile. That drove their factory PMI to new momentum and a five year high. In Europe, the ECB also released a survey of bank forecasters. They found there were expectations for higher inflation in the near term, but unchanged further out. These analysts have downgraded their 2026 and 2027 growth expectations, but left longer forecasts unchanged. In Australia, the Melbourne Institute's Inflation Gauge tracking reported a +0.6% rise from March to be 4.3% higher than a year ago. The April result was lower than the record high monthly increase at +1.3% in March, and compares with the official March monthly annual rise of 4.6%. Despite the easing, this rate remains very high and likely well above what the RBA will be comfortable with. The RBA is widely expected to raise its policy rate +25 bps to 4.35% later today, although in the past 24 hours, the market conviction has wavered. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.44%, up +6 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today down -US$92 at US$4522/oz. Silver is down -US$2 at just under US$73/oz.. American oil prices are up +US$3 at just on US$105/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$5.50 and now at US$113.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are holding at 81.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.1 which is down -20 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$80,587 and up +2.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.6%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news it has now been 66 days since the Strait of Hormuz has been largely shut and the two combatants seem to have descended into stalemate (although the Iranian's seem to have attacked one cargo ship overnight, let others through). The result has been much higher fuel prices, fertiliser prices, and a settling in of inflationary pressure everywhere. These pressures are intense. This week will start out locally with the Barfoot results for April (today), followed by the March quarter jobs report (on Wednesday). The RBNZ will be reviewing financial stability on Wednesday as well. In Australia, it will be all about the Tuesday afternoon decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia, where a +25 bps hike seems likely (but is not certain). But inflation risks tied to the Iran conflict are building and they risk getting embedded. Also due out this week is data for building consents, job ads, household spending, and trade data. Trade data is also due from Taiwan and PMIs will come for many countries. Sweden and Norway will be reviewing their monetary policy settings this week too. American financial markets will be eyeing their labour market data, with their non-farm, payrolls report coming at the end of the week. There will also be important updates for their services sector, plus the preliminary May sentiment survey from the University of Michigan, also at the end of the week. At the end of last week, there were two factory PMI surveys out for the US and both were positive. The ISM reported a modest expansion, unchanged from a month ago. But they also reported a rise in new orders even though export orders fell. And employment fell, and rather sharply. Prices rose sharply and at their fastest pace since the pandemic. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was even more positive, but they said it was driven by stockpiling amid rising prices and supply disruptions. New orders increased at the fastest pace in four years, despite an eleventh consecutive monthly decline in exports. On the price front, input cost inflation reached a ten-month high. If stockpiling and inventory builds are behind this American rise, while they lose global market share, this is not very sustainable. Stock building seems to be behind a sharp rise in Canadian factory activity too. Their PMI showed production, employment and purchasing all increased in April. But theirs also featured new export orders which rose solidly and at the fastest rate since the start of 2022. Across the Pacific, Japanese factories are reporting their fastest expansion in twelve years. It is no doubt welcome, but they are now having capacity problems affecting supply-chain performance. This April production data supports earlier official industrial production reports for March. And the Japanese yen strengthened suddenly and sharply on Friday, ending a long period of devaluation against the USD. The shift is likely due to Bank of Japan intervention which seems to have cost the US$35 bln to pull off. In China, China Southern Airlines has ordered 137 aircraft from Airbus said to be worth US$28 bln. This comes after China Eastern Airlines ordered 101 Airbus aircraft worth US$16 bln a month ago. It appears that China won't be offering Trump aircraft orders when Xi and he meets on May 14 in Beijing. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.38%, unchanged from this time Friday but up +7 bps for the week.  The price of gold will start today down -US$7 at US$4613/oz and down -US$103/oz for the week. Silver is down -US$1 at just on US$75/oz. American oil prices are down -50 USc at just on US$102/bbl, while the international Brent price is also down -50 USc, and now at US$108/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$94/bbl and US$105/bbl so the really big move up was in the US. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Saturday at this time at 59 USc, up +20 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are holding at 81.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3 which is essentially unchanged from Saturday and up +10 bps from this time last week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$78,723 and up +0.3% from this time Saturday. It is up only +1.1% from a week ago however. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.7%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news investors are ignoring big (geopolitical) risks by taking even bigger new tech risks. On Wall Street, tech firms are reporting a profit gusher. Google (+81% rise in profits), Amazon (+56%) and Microsoft (+24%) delivered bonanza profit results yesterday, crediting AI for these outsized results. Meta was up too (+61%), but held back by a misfiring AI strategy that will require huge new investment. The positive results will likely boost valuations ever higher. In fact, Big Tech has committed to US$750 bln in new spending in the sector. And this impulse is a big part of driving US economic activity which expanded +2% in Q1-2026 in their initial estimate, up from a modest +0.5% gain in Q4-2025 (which was revised lower at each subsequent update). However the current result was below market expectations of +2.3% growth. The outcome was driven primarily by AI investment, but also exports, and both consumer and government spending. But their PCE inflation was reported for March at its highest in more than two years at 3.5%, with +0.7% of that coming in March alone, the steepest monthly increase since the pandemic distortions. Almost certainly April will have been higher, and probably by some margin. Personal income, before adjusting for inflation, rose +4.2% while personal spending rose +5.4%. No wonder most Americans don't feel like they are making economic progress - although Big Tech won't feel the same way. US initial jobless claims came in at 180,000 last week, a decrease and by more than seasonal factors would have indicated. But although it was expected to continue to expand, in fact the Chicago PMI slipped into contraction in April. This unexpected shift was driven by a drop in new orders and a sharper than expected rise in input costs. In Japan, retail sales (+1.7% vs expectations of +0.8% year-on-year) and industrial production data (+2.3% vs +0.4% in February) out yesterday for March were much stronger than any analyst was expecting. But it was only for March, and questions linger about their April data. Still it is better to lead into that with a good prior month. There were two factory PMI surveys out for China yesterday. The official one has it expanding marginally slower and at a quite modest rate. The unofficial S&P Global version reported a slightly stronger expansion. The official services PMI showed a slightly larger contraction after the surprise tiny March expansion. In Taiwan, they also reported GDP and it will be no surprise that it was a strong +13.7% growth, well exceeding the expected +11.3% expansion. The EU said they expect April CPI inflation to come in at 3.0%, up from +2.6% in March and all driven my higher energy costs. The ECB reviewed its monetary policy settings overnight and left its policy rate unchanged, as expected. (The English central bank did the same.) In Australia, CoreLogic said its Home Value Index rose by +0.3% in April, slowing from a +0.6% increase in March and this latest level is the weakest growth in nearly a year. But values are now falling in the nation's two largest property markets and they are easing in every other capital city. The prospect of another rate hike next Tuesday isn't helping. Global container freight rates were little-changed last week from the prior one, and are now +6% higher than year-ago levels. There were few notable regional route changes. And bulk freight rates also held unchanged over the past week although at a high level. From a year ago these rates are up +90% however. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.39%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today up +US$72 at US$4616/oz. Silver is up +US$3 at just under US$74/oz. American oil prices are down -US$3 at just on US$103.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$9.50, and now at US$109/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is back up +50 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.2 which is up +30 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$76,167 and up +0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.2%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Review and analysis of pertinent national issues in Twi

Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news financial markets are starting to see the international geopolitical risks as something that can undermine their bull run. The oil price rises caused by Trump's Gulf War are messing with the outlook in a much more visible way today. But first, in the widely expected result, the US Federal Reserve held its benchmark policy rates unchanged at 3.75%, in a 8-1 vote with only Trump's insert wanting a lower rate. Three other members abstained, not supporting language that wanted to lower the easing bias included in the Statement. This is likely the last meeting Powell will lead, although he said he will stay on as a Governor "for a period of time". His term officially ends in January 2028. Benchmark yields rose, the USD rose, and stocks fell on the news. US mortgage applications fell -1.6% last week even though benchmark interest rates hardly shifted. The fall affected both refi activity and new home purchases. US durable goods orders rose +0.8% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, to be +2.8% ahead of year ago levels. But with US producer prices up +4.0% in the same period, this isn't a 'real' increase. But there was a big jump in US housing starts in March, up to just over a 1.5 mln annual rate and up more than +10% from February -  and to its highest level since December 2024. The US trade deficit rose +5.3% in March from February to -US$88 bln for the month, about the level expected. And US authorities reported that their crude oil stocks dived -6.3 mln bbls last week, and their petrol inventories fell by a similar very large amount. This had a dramatic impact on the WTI crude prices, which jumped In Canada, their central bank also held its policy rate at 2.25%, also as expected. Some observers saw the review as hawkish, with rate hikes coming sooner than previously expected. In Singapore, they reported a sudden and very dramatic jump in producer prices for March, up +21.6% from the same month a year ago, with oil-related prices up more that +60% in March from February. Germany said its April CPI inflation will be +2.9%, all due to higher energy costs. Global data out for March air travel revealed an overall +2.1% rise, but international travel dropped -0.6% while domestic air travel rose +6.5%. A large part of the reason was the sudden sharp drop in the Middle East (down -60%). Asia Pacific travel rose +11.5% in the month. Australian domestic travel was up +8.8%. Meanwhile air cargo activity was severely disrupted by the Middle East conflict and Trump's Gulf War in March. It fell -4.8% overall, with international cargo demand down -5.5%. Asia Pacific demand was up a modest +5.5%, but North American air cargoes fell -1.5% and Middle East cargoes fell -55%. April is likely to be much worse. Most airlines are cutting flight capacity as the fuel price and availability situation worsens sharply. April data will be bad. May likely even worse. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.41%, up +6 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today down -US$56 at US$4543/oz. Silver is down -US$2.50 at just over US$71/oz. American oil prices are up +US$6.50 at just on US$106.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$7.50, and now at US$118.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is down -50 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 81.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.9 which is down -40 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$75,931 and down -0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of fractures emerging in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and of OPEC itself. But first up today there was a dairy Pulse auction, but this one bringing few changes from the prior week's full event. Prices for butter, SMP and WMP were little-changed. But the AMF price did fall -4.4% to its lowest of the year so far. In Australia, it is worth noting that bond markets are in full bear more. They have driven their AGB benchmark 10 year bond yield to a 15 year high (price to a 15 year low), and these movements are replicated across the whole maturity curve. Expectations are high that the RBA is about to tackle inflation head-on with purposeful monetary policy actions starting next week. And there is spillover to New Zealand benchmark rates too. In the US, their weekly ADP employment report signaled a third week of good payroll gains in the private sector. And the Conference Board's survey of consumer sentiment was marginally better than expected in April. Most aspects deteriorated in this latest survey, except the labour market conditions that the ADP signals have licked up. It was similar for the Richmond Fed's factory survey which was little-changed but with a hint of positiveness. And the Dallas Fed services survey was marginally less negative. Across the Pacific, the Bank of Japan kept its short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at its April meeting overnight, leaving borrowing costs at their highest level since September 1995. The widely expected decision passed by a 6–3 vote, amid uncertainty over the Iran conflict and surging energy prices. The three dissenters wanted a hike to 1.0%. In its quarterly outlook, the central bank raised its FY2026 core inflation outlook to 2.8% from 1.9%, citing higher crude oil prices that likely push up energy and goods costs. Overall, this review was more hawksih than expected. Korean manufacturing business sentiment rose in April to its highest since June 2024, with improvements across the board. India's industrial production is settling in with a growth rate of about 4%, the March level which it has been at (or above) for eight of the past nine months. In Europe, their has been a very big jump in inflation expectations. Eurozone median inflation expectations for the next 12 months jumped to 4.0% in March in the latest ECB survey, the highest level since October 2023 and up sharply from 2.5% in February. This was the largest monthly increase since early 2022, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted energy markets. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.35%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today down -US$83 at US$4599/oz. Silver is down -US$2 at just under US$73.50/oz. American oil prices are up +US$3 at just on US$100/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$2, and now at US$111/bbl. And the UAE announced overnight that it is quitting OPEC, chafing at the export restrictions the cartel uses to manipulate prices. Some wee this as the beginning of the end of OPEC. We should also probably note that a Japanese supertanker has transited the Strait of Hormuz - with Iran's permission and in defiance of the US blockade. The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3 which is down -20 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$76,178 and down -0.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.2%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news oil prices are rising as 'peace talks' stall. And the German Chancellor has said the US is being 'humiliated' by Iran. In the US, the Dallas Fed factory survey shows activity continued to rise in April but that their new orders index plummeted sharply into contraction territory. Their shipments index fell into negative territory for the first time this year, while perceptions of broader business conditions continued to worsen notably in April. There were two large US Treasury bond auctions earlier today and while the yields achieved were little different to those at the prior equivalent events a month ago, there was a notable riser in demand. The 2 year bond brought +8.7% more bid value, and the five year +1.8% more. Together that was +US$18 bln more. Canada has launched a new sovereign wealth fund, seeding it with an initial C$25 bln funding. We should note that Moody's has upgraded China's A1 credit rating outlook to 'Stable' from 'Negative' from its last change in December 2023. Despite the Middle East headwinds, China's industrial profits were +15.5% in Q1-2026 than in the same period in 2025. This maintained the good expansion in January and February. SOE profits rose +10%, local private forms were up +25%, but foreign firms in China hardly managed any increase. A large part of the result has been the huge profits their metals industry is winning, especially for rare earth minerals. Taiwanese consumer sentiment edged up in April, but only marginally from its very low level. It is still basically at its lowest since January 2023. In Malaysia, a sharp rise in oil prices in March turned their overall producer price deflation into inflation. It is sure to get sharper in subsequent months. Meanwhile in Singapore industrial production rose sharply in March, up +10% from the same month a year ago after the very lackluster February result. In Germany, the GfK Consumer Climate Indicator dropped in May more than expected and to its weakest level since February 2023. Mounting pressure on households from rising energy prices has pushed inflation higher and sentiment lower. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.33%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today down -US$28 at US$4681/oz. (If you buy gold, it might just be supporting a criminal supply chain.) Silver is little-changed at just under US$75.50/oz. American oil prices are up +US$2.50 at just under US$97/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$3.50, and now at US$109/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$84.50/bbl and US$91/bbl respectively, so a big net rise. And we should note that the Russian benchmark (Urals) oil price has eased by -US$1.50 to US$106/bbl The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from yesterday at this time at 59.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62.5 which is up +30 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$76,753 and down -1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

From losing over a million dollars in a rice business gone wrong to understanding the brutal reality of predatory pricing and foreign dominance in Ghana's food import sector, and why the harsh truth about entering the rice business is that you can't just walk in with a hundred thousand dollars thinking it's easy money because the moment you show up with your shipment the established players who own 12 brands each will scrub their prices down to cost price and even below just to frustrate you out of the market selling rice at 200 cedis when it's impossible unless they didn't pay duty or got the rice for free, the entrepreneur who faces predatory pricing where competitors intentionally lose money just to keep new players out of the market cutting prices so low that first time importers are forced to sell below cost and lose their capital before eventually quitting the business allowing the big players to raise prices again and recover everything they lost kicking you out, the business owner who warns that 80% of rice importers in Ghana are foreigners from the Middle East India and Lebanon creating a serious concern about food security when the country's food supply of rice sugar and other imports are mainly in the hands of foreigners not because they're not helping the economy or providing jobs but because no Ghanaian businessmen can survive in an environment where the people in the companies are robbing Ghanaians themselves, the realization that these foreign business owners have been here for generations and actually have Ghanaian passports and speak Twi so fluently that if you don't see them and only hear them on the microphone you might think it's a Ghanaian speaking proving how deeply rooted they are in the system, the imported rice versus locally produced rice debate where imported rice is cheaper than locally produced rice because the cost of production in Ghana is so high and all borne by the farmer while in other countries the government provides machinery fertilizers tractors and combined harvesters for free as grants supporting their agribusiness, the farmer in Ghana who has to pay for the tractor buy gasoline rent the combined harvester plow the floor and bear all those costs alone ending up with a product that's not even as fine but still highly priced compared to imported rice making it impossible for any rational Ghanaian consumer to choose local when there's Ghanaian rice at an exhibition selling for 450 cedis while imported rice is way less, the thought of growing rice in Ghana that died after research showed it would result in losses because government promises to help the agri sector never come and friends who own farms in Volta region get no help and have to call for assistance just to sell their rice, the shocking data that the entire rice harvested in Ghana is not enough to feed the people of Greater Accra for two weeks yet people still complain about not having buyers because it's not about demand it's about pricing since farmers spent a lot of money to produce and are suffering, the solution that would affect a lot of importers but could work if the government pushes an agenda for 70% consumption of local produce and 30% importation but only if the government also supports the farmers because otherwise importers would just quit and switch to farming to gain from government support, the threat to the economy when the people who control how much food comes into Ghana are foreigners who are helping the economy yes but building theirs even better sending all the money back to their homes creating a situation where if they decide they're done and leave Ghana will go hungry. Host: Derrick Abaitey

In this powerful and deeply moving episode of Autism for Badass Moms, host Rashidah sits down with Jennifer Amoako, a devoted mother, autism advocate, and a true example of resilience in the face of life's toughest challenges.Jennifer is raising her 4-year-old daughter, Saiylor, who was diagnosed with autism at just two years old. But her journey didn't begin — or end — there. In the same year as her daughter's diagnosis, Jennifer endured the heartbreaking loss of one of her twins during pregnancy, all while navigating the emotional weight of a divorce. Layers of grief, change, and uncertainty collided — yet she found a way to keep going.Through honesty, strength, and unconditional love, Jennifer turned her pain into purpose. Today, she uses her platform to document her family's autism journey, offering a real, unfiltered look into everyday life — the highs, the challenges, and everything in between.In this episode, we discuss: 00:00 Podcast Welcome00:58 Episode Stakes02:10 Meet Jennifer04:20 Early Signs Noticed07:02 Diagnosis Push08:35 Reframing Autism10:11 Hospital Wake Up11:35 Faith and Support15:35 Finding Advocacy Voice20:00 Sharing Online25:54 Bright Family Content28:55 Media and Mission31:59 Raising Self Advocates32:36 Adult Services Reality Check33:29 Workplace Inclusion Goals35:46 AAC Breakthroughs37:33 Build Your Support Tribe39:39 Therapy Team Routine41:03 Let Kids Lead Socially44:35 Safety Versus Independence45:04 Find Jen Online48:14 Advice After Diagnosis51:09 The Work Behind Progress55:03 Unapologetically Me56:26 Final Thanks and Call to Share57:32 Apply to Be a GuestConnect with Jennifer AmoakoInternational Panel Contributor ~ Speaker ~ Parent AdvocateJennifer's impact doesn't stop at her personal story.She has taken her advocacy to a global level, serving as a Panel Contributor for the international session, “Let's Learn About Autism,” where she represented the United States as a parent advocate. Alongside African doctors in the diaspora across the UK, Germany, Spain, and the U.S., Jennifer shared her lived experience — from diagnosis to early intervention and advocacy — while also speaking on emotional resilience as a mother navigating autism. She contributed to a global Q&A discussion for a diverse Twi and English-speaking audience during this internationally hosted Zoom event.Jennifer has also been featured across multiple media platforms, amplifying awareness and education around autism:• Frederick Lifestyle Magazine — where she shared her powerful story, “Learning to Hear My Daughter” • WTOP News — interviewed as a parent advocate discussing early diagnosis and family support • Good Morning Frederick Podcast — where she spoke on autism awareness and community advocacy Her voice has also reached academic spaces. As a guest speaker at Frederick Community College, Jennifer has educated future professionals by sharing what it truly means to raise a child with autism — offering real-life insight into therapies, diagnosis, and advocacy from a parent's perspective.Jennifer's advocacy focuses on:• Early autism identification • Parent empowerment and advocacy • Navigating therapies (OT, Speech, ABA) • Neurodiversity education • Cultural conversations around autism • Building community awareness and supportInstagram: www.instagram.com/saiylor_roseIf this episode resonated with you:• Follow the Autism for Badass Moms Podcast on your favorite platform• Leave a review to help other autism moms find this community• Share this episode with a parent who may feel unseen or misunderstoodInstagram: www.instagram.com/theabmpodcastFacebook: www.facebook.com/theabmpodcastYouTube: autismforbadassmomsJoin us every Tuesday for more inspiring stories and insightful discussions that empower and uplift.

Last time on RPGBOT.Podcast: we attempted a stealth infiltration of a pirate space station and immediately turned it into a full-blown crisis involving the Empire. This time? It gets worse. Show Notes In Part 2 of this Star Wars Edge of the Empire actual play, the RPGBOT crew continues their mission to infiltrate a hidden pirate station and hack its central maintenance terminal—but things escalate in the most RPGBOT way possible. After escaping the chaos of the cantina and evading Imperial forces, the crew descends into the station's maintenance tunnels. What should have been a straightforward Star Wars RPG dungeon crawl equivalent quickly turns bizarre when they encounter a massive group of identical individuals—revealed to be a strange population of clone-like workers living in isolation. These clones appear confused, unhealthy, and deeply devoted to a mysterious figure known as Astromach—a partially dismantled astromech droid elevated to god-like status. This encounter becomes a perfect showcase of narrative roleplaying in the Fantasy Flight Games Star Wars system, where player improvisation drives the story far more than mechanics. While Fricata (the Wookiee slicer) attempts to complete the objective using computers checks and slicing mechanics, Nelbren (the Twi'lek smuggler) distracts the crowd using deception, persuasion, and sheer confidence. The session highlights how advantage, threat, and triumph results shape outcomes in unexpected ways—including triggering panic, suspicion, and near-disaster. Meanwhile, the slicing operation becomes a race against time, demonstrating how GMs can structure skill challenges in the Genesys / Edge of the Empire system. Just as the crew completes their objective and retrieves the data, they decide—naturally—to kidnap the clone cult's robotic deity and escape. Unfortunately, their exit is interrupted by the arrival of Imperial forces… including a familiar enemy from Nelbren's past. The episode ends with a dramatic cliffhanger as tensions explode into combat, showcasing initiative mechanics (Cool vs Vigilance) and setting the stage for a high-stakes confrontation. Key Takeaways Actual play sessions highlight the strength of narrative dice systems, especially how Advantage and Threat shape scenes beyond success/failure. Improvisation is core to Star Wars RPG gameplay—players turned a random encounter into a full cult infiltration scenario. Skill challenges (like slicing a terminal) can be structured as multi-roll objectives to build tension. Social encounters can be as complex as combat, especially when dealing with unstable NPC groups. Creative roleplay can bypass traditional obstacles, including turning enemies into allies (or followers). Force powers and talents add narrative depth, even when they don't fully succeed. Destiny Points and narrative control mechanics reinforce the push-and-pull between players and GM. Edge of the Empire thrives on chaos, especially in morally gray Outer Rim scenarios. Recurring character backstories (like Nel's Imperial ties) are powerful tools for introducing conflict. No plan survives contact with the players. Ever. Welcome to the RPGBOT Podcast. If you love Dungeons & Dragons, Pathfinder, and tabletop RPGs, this is the podcast for you. Support the show for free: Rate and review us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any podcast app. It helps new listeners find the best RPG podcast for D&D and Pathfinder players. Level up your experience: Join us on Patreon to unlock ad-free access to RPGBOT.net and the RPGBOT Podcast, chat with us and the community on the RPGBOT Discord, and jump into live-streamed RPG podcast recordings. Support while you shop: Use our Amazon affiliate link at https://amzn.to/3NwElxQ and help us keep building tools and guides for the RPG community. Meet the Hosts Tyler Kamstra – Master of mechanics, seeing the Pathfinder action economy like Neo in the Matrix. Randall James – Lore buff and technologist, always ready to debate which Lord of the Rings edition reigns supreme. Ash Ely – Resident cynic, chaos agent, and AI's worst nightmare, bringing pure table-flipping RPG podcast energy. Join the RPGBOT team where fantasy roleplaying meets real strategy, sarcasm, and community chaos. How to Find Us: In-depth articles, guides, handbooks, reviews, news on Tabletop Role Playing at RPGBOT.net Tyler Kamstra BlueSky: @rpgbot.net TikTok: @RPGBOTDOTNET Ash Ely Professional Game Master on StartPlaying.Games BlueSky: @GravenAshes YouTube: @ashravenmedia Randall James BlueSky: @GrimoireRPG Amateurjack.com Read Melancon: A Grimoire Tale (affiliate link) Producer Dan @Lzr_illuminati

Last time on RPGBOT.Podcast: we attempted a stealth infiltration of a pirate space station and immediately turned it into a full-blown crisis involving the Empire. This time? It gets worse. Show Notes In Part 2 of this Star Wars Edge of the Empire actual play, the RPGBOT crew continues their mission to infiltrate a hidden pirate station and hack its central maintenance terminal, but things escalate in the most RPGBOT way possible. After escaping the chaos of an iconic Star Wars-style cantina and evading Imperial forces, the crew descends into the station's maintenance tunnels. What should have been a straightforward infiltration quickly turns bizarre when they encounter a massive group of inexplicable clones. While Fricata (the Wookiee slicer) attempts to complete the objective using computers checks and slicing mechanics, Nehl Bren (the Twi'lek smuggler) distracts the crowd using deception, persuasion, and sheer confidence. The slicing operation becomes a race against time, demonstrating how GMs can structure skill challenges in the Genesys / Edge of the Empire system. Just as the crew completes their objective and retrieves the data, they decide to liberate (maybe kidnap?) the clone cult's robotic deity and escape. Unfortunately, their exit is interrupted by the arrival of Imperial forces… including a familiar enemy from Nehl's past. The episode ends with a bang. Key Takeaways Actual play sessions highlight the strength of narrative dice systems, especially how Advantage and Threat shape scenes beyond success/failure. Improvisation is core to Star Wars RPG gameplay—players turned a random encounter into a full cult infiltration scenario. Skill challenges (like slicing a terminal) can be structured as multi-roll objectives to build tension. Social encounters can be as complex as combat, especially when dealing with unstable NPC groups. Creative roleplay can bypass traditional obstacles, including turning enemies into allies (or followers). Force powers and talents add narrative depth, even when they don't fully succeed. Destiny Points and narrative control mechanics reinforce the push-and-pull between players and GM. Edge of the Empire thrives on chaos, especially in morally gray Outer Rim scenarios. Recurring character backstories (like Nel's Imperial ties) are powerful tools for introducing conflict. No plan survives contact with the players. Ever. Welcome to the RPGBOT Podcast. If you love Dungeons & Dragons, Pathfinder, and tabletop RPGs, this is the podcast for you. Support the show for free: Rate and review us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any podcast app. It helps new listeners find the best RPG podcast for D&D and Pathfinder players. Level up your experience: Join us on Patreon to unlock ad-free access to RPGBOT.net and the RPGBOT Podcast, chat with us and the community on the RPGBOT Discord, and jump into live-streamed RPG podcast recordings. Support while you shop: Use our Amazon affiliate link at https://amzn.to/3NwElxQ and help us keep building tools and guides for the RPG community. Meet the Hosts Tyler Kamstra – Master of mechanics, seeing the Pathfinder action economy like Neo in the Matrix. Randall James – Lore buff and technologist, always ready to debate which Lord of the Rings edition reigns supreme. Ash Ely – Resident cynic, chaos agent, and AI's worst nightmare, bringing pure table-flipping RPG podcast energy. Join the RPGBOT team where fantasy roleplaying meets real strategy, sarcasm, and community chaos. How to Find Us: In-depth articles, guides, handbooks, reviews, news on Tabletop Role Playing at RPGBOT.net Tyler Kamstra BlueSky: @rpgbot.net TikTok: @RPGBOTDOTNET Ash Ely Professional Game Master on StartPlaying.Games BlueSky: @GravenAshes YouTube: @ashravenmedia Randall James BlueSky: @GrimoireRPG Amateurjack.com Read Melancon: A Grimoire Tale (affiliate link) Producer Dan @Lzr_illuminati

Welcome back to the RPGBOT.Podcast, where we're teaching you how to play the Star Wars tabletop RPG the best possible way: by immediately committing crimes in space. In this episode, Randall introduces a Wookie slicer with Force powers on the run from the law, while Ash debuts a former Imperial smuggler who solves problems the traditional way: shooting first and then leaving without askin questions. Tyler GMs a Star Wars RPG actual play session which quickly becomes a chaotic adventure featuring pirate stations, suspicious hookahs, questionable dice math, and a cantina band legally required to play the same song forever. A mysterious employer named Fulcrum sends our heroes to a lawless Outer Rim space station to hack a maintenance terminal. Everything is going well until an Imperial Star Destroyer arrives and Ash's obligations immeditaly become a problem. Buckle up for an Edge of the Empire actual play. The dice are weird, the space criminals are weirder, and "failing forward" may be the players' only hope for success. Show Notes In this Star Wars TTRPG actual play episode, the RPGBOT crew dives into the Fantasy Flight Games Star Wars roleplaying system (Edge of the Empire) to demonstrate how the game works in practice. Through a chaotic but hilarious adventure, listeners get a hands-on look at the mechanics of the narrative dice, Destiny Points, and a small taste of combat. Randall plays Fricata, a Wookiee slicer with Force abilities and a confusing criminal history. Ash plays Nehlbren, a Twi'lek smuggler pilot who once served the Galactic Empire but is now carving out her own path in the galaxy's criminal underworld. A mysterious contact known only as "Fulcrum" hires them to infiltrate a hidden pirate station called Comfort Station. Access the station's central maintenance terminal, upload a program via a code cylinder (basically a Star Wars USB drive), retrieve encrypted data, destroy the evidence, and don't let anyone else get the data. Of course, nothing is ever simple in the Outer Rim. The players interact with shady NPCs, explore the environment, and begin scheming their way toward the maintenance systems. The episode also provides practical demonstrations of skill checks and how narrative dice results influence storytelling. If you've ever wondered how Edge of the Empire actually plays at the table, this episode is a perfect example. Key Takeaways Fantasy Flight's Star Wars RPG uses narrative dice, meaning results generate story outcomes beyond simple success or failure. Actual play sessions are one of the best ways to learn the system, showing how mechanics like Advantage and Threat influence the narrative. Character backgrounds drive story complications, such as Nelbren's Imperial past creating immediate conflict when the Empire appears. Social checks (Charm, Negotiation, Deception) can dramatically change encounters—even avoiding docking fees on a pirate station. Knowledge and perception checks help players navigate complex environments, especially when searching for hidden objectives. Slicing (hacking) is a core gameplay element in Edge of the Empire and often requires creative thinking. Force tokens create a dynamic resource pool shared between players and the GM, constantly shifting the narrative balance. The Cool vs Vigilance initiative system determines combat order depending on whether characters were prepared for the fight. Edge of the Empire emphasizes storytelling over rigid mechanics, encouraging improvisation and player creativity. Sometimes the best plan in a Star Wars RPG is still just shooting first. Welcome to the RPGBOT Podcast. If you love Dungeons & Dragons, Pathfinder, and tabletop RPGs, this is the podcast for you. Support the show for free: Rate and review us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any podcast app. It helps new listeners find the best RPG podcast for D&D and Pathfinder players. Level up your experience: Join us on Patreon to unlock ad-free access to RPGBOT.net and the RPGBOT Podcast, chat with us and the community on the RPGBOT Discord, and jump into live-streamed RPG podcast recordings. Support while you shop: Use our Amazon affiliate link at https://amzn.to/3NwElxQ and help us keep building tools and guides for the RPG community. Meet the Hosts Tyler Kamstra – Master of mechanics, seeing the Pathfinder action economy like Neo in the Matrix. Randall James – Lore buff and technologist, always ready to debate which Lord of the Rings edition reigns supreme. Ash Ely – Resident cynic, chaos agent, and AI's worst nightmare, bringing pure table-flipping RPG podcast energy. Join the RPGBOT team where fantasy roleplaying meets real strategy, sarcasm, and community chaos. How to Find Us: In-depth articles, guides, handbooks, reviews, news on Tabletop Role Playing at RPGBOT.net Tyler Kamstra BlueSky: @rpgbot.net TikTok: @RPGBOTDOTNET Ash Ely Professional Game Master on StartPlaying.Games BlueSky: @GravenAshes YouTube: @ashravenmedia Randall James BlueSky: @GrimoireRPG Amateurjack.com Read Melancon: A Grimoire Tale (affiliate link) Producer Dan @Lzr_illuminati

Welcome back to the RPGBOT.Podcast, where we're teaching you how to play the Star Wars tabletop RPG the best possible way: by immediately committing crimes in space. In this episode, Randall introduces a Wookie slicer with Force powers on the run from the law, while Ash debuts a former Imperial smuggler who solves problems the traditional way: shooting first and then leaving without askin questions. Tyler GMs a Star Wars RPG actual play session which quickly becomes a chaotic adventure featuring pirate stations, suspicious hookahs, questionable dice math, and a cantina band legally required to play the same song forever. A mysterious employer named Fulcrum sends our heroes to a lawless Outer Rim space station to hack a maintenance terminal. Everything is going well until an Imperial Star Destroyer arrives and Ash's obligations immeditaly become a problem. Buckle up for an Edge of the Empire actual play. The dice are weird, the space criminals are weirder, and "failing forward" may be the players' only hope for success. Show Notes In this Star Wars TTRPG actual play episode, the RPGBOT crew dives into the Fantasy Flight Games Star Wars roleplaying system (Edge of the Empire) to demonstrate how the game works in practice. Through a chaotic but hilarious adventure, listeners get a hands-on look at the mechanics of the narrative dice, Destiny Points, and a small taste of combat. Randall plays Fricata, a Wookiee slicer with Force abilities and a confusing criminal history. Ash plays Nehlbren, a Twi'lek smuggler pilot who once served the Galactic Empire but is now carving out her own path in the galaxy's criminal underworld. A mysterious contact known only as "Fulcrum" hires them to infiltrate a hidden pirate station called Comfort Station. Access the station's central maintenance terminal, upload a program via a code cylinder (basically a Star Wars USB drive), retrieve encrypted data, destroy the evidence, and don't let anyone else get the data. Of course, nothing is ever simple in the Outer Rim. The players interact with shady NPCs, explore the environment, and begin scheming their way toward the maintenance systems. The episode also provides practical demonstrations of skill checks and how narrative dice results influence storytelling. If you've ever wondered how Edge of the Empire actually plays at the table, this episode is a perfect example. Key Takeaways Fantasy Flight's Star Wars RPG uses narrative dice, meaning results generate story outcomes beyond simple success or failure. Actual play sessions are one of the best ways to learn the system, showing how mechanics like Advantage and Threat influence the narrative. Character backgrounds drive story complications, such as Nelbren's Imperial past creating immediate conflict when the Empire appears. Social checks (Charm, Negotiation, Deception) can dramatically change encounters—even avoiding docking fees on a pirate station. Knowledge and perception checks help players navigate complex environments, especially when searching for hidden objectives. Slicing (hacking) is a core gameplay element in Edge of the Empire and often requires creative thinking. Force tokens create a dynamic resource pool shared between players and the GM, constantly shifting the narrative balance. The Cool vs Vigilance initiative system determines combat order depending on whether characters were prepared for the fight. Edge of the Empire emphasizes storytelling over rigid mechanics, encouraging improvisation and player creativity. Sometimes the best plan in a Star Wars RPG is still just shooting first. Welcome to the RPGBOT Podcast. If you love Dungeons & Dragons, Pathfinder, and tabletop RPGs, this is the podcast for you. Support the show for free: Rate and review us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any podcast app. It helps new listeners find the best RPG podcast for D&D and Pathfinder players. Level up your experience: Join us on Patreon to unlock ad-free access to RPGBOT.net and the RPGBOT Podcast, chat with us and the community on the RPGBOT Discord, and jump into live-streamed RPG podcast recordings. Support while you shop: Use our Amazon affiliate link at https://amzn.to/3NwElxQ and help us keep building tools and guides for the RPG community. Meet the Hosts Tyler Kamstra – Master of mechanics, seeing the Pathfinder action economy like Neo in the Matrix. Randall James – Lore buff and technologist, always ready to debate which Lord of the Rings edition reigns supreme. Ash Ely – Resident cynic, chaos agent, and AI's worst nightmare, bringing pure table-flipping RPG podcast energy. Join the RPGBOT team where fantasy roleplaying meets real strategy, sarcasm, and community chaos. How to Find Us: In-depth articles, guides, handbooks, reviews, news on Tabletop Role Playing at RPGBOT.net Tyler Kamstra BlueSky: @rpgbot.net TikTok: @RPGBOTDOTNET Ash Ely Professional Game Master on StartPlaying.Games BlueSky: @GravenAshes YouTube: @ashravenmedia Randall James BlueSky: @GrimoireRPG Amateurjack.com Read Melancon: A Grimoire Tale (affiliate link) Producer Dan @Lzr_illuminati

Every RPG player knows the real game doesn't start when the dice hit the table. No, the real adventure begins when some nerds open a rulebook, stare at a character sheet, and argue about whether a Wookiee hacker with a moral crusade for droid rights is mechanically viable. In this episode of the RPGBOT.Quickstart series, the crew tackles FFG Star Wars RPG character creation in Fantasy Flight's Edge of the Empire. Randall decides the galaxy clearly needs a Force-sensitive Wookie slicer, Ash plans to become the smooth-talking Twi'lek pilot with questionable ethics, and Tyler guides them through the rules like Han Solo navigating an astroid field. Fewer explosions, though. The crew debates Wookie vocal acting, and give a lot of attention to character backgrounds, motivations, and that fancy "obligation" mechanic that Tyler has been gushing about for the past 5 seasons. Show Notes In Part 2 of the RPGBOT Quickstart guide to the Fantasy Flight Star Wars RPG, the hosts dive deep into character creation for Edge of the Empire, walking listeners step-by-step through how to build a playable character from concept to crunch. The episode begins with a quick refresher on the core elements that define a character in the FFG Star Wars: Unlike traditional D&D-style builds focused on race and class alone, Star Wars characters are shaped by several narrative and mechanical layers: species, career, specialization trees, obligation, motivations, skills, and equipment. Understanding the Core Pieces of a Star Wars Character Characters start from their background and motiviation, which are mostly narrative, but your motivation can provide a recurring source of bonus experience points used to advance your character. Ash selects "Freedom," while Randall chooses "Droid Rights." Next is choosing a species, which determines starting attributes, wound thresholds, strain thresholds, and sometimes special abilities. The group reviews options like humans, droids, wookiees, and other iconic Star Wars species, each bringing unique mechanical strengths. From there, players select a career, the Star Wars equivalent of a class. Careers such as Smuggler, Technician, Bounty Hunter, Colonist, Explorer, and Hired Gun are available in Edge of the Empire, with other careers available in other core books. Each career also includes specialization trees: talent grids that players spend XP on to get exciting new talents. The Obligation Mechanic One of the defining mechanics of Edge of the Empire is the Obligation system. Each character begins with one or more "obligations": debts, blackmail, criminal records, or personal responsibilities that can become recurring problems during play. Players can choose from a table of suggestions or work with the GM to create their own. We like a d100 table, so we rolled. Ash rolls Blackmail, suggesting their former Imperial ties might come back to haunt them, while Randall rolls Criminal, representing legal trouble tied to a mysterious identity issue in which he's wanted for his own murder. The hosts discuss how obligation works at the table, and also how you can get some extra goodies at character creation for taking on extra Obligation. Spending Experience Points The group also covers starting XP allocation during character creation. Players spend XP to increase attributes, train skills, and unlock talents from specialization trees. Tyler explains the economic balance behind XP spending: Improving characteristics is expensive but powerful, while skills can offer cheaper and more focused improvements. Talents are similarly powerful, but often more complex than straight numerical improvements. Players can also spend XP to unclock new specializations, including from different careers. Tyler, who is in fact a generous GM, gives Ash and Randall a big pile of extra starting XP so that Randall can get force powers without cutting into his slicing skills. Equipment and Starting Gear Finally, character spend starting credits on equipment. Ash and Randall spend some time eyeballing armor, weapons, and other goodies. Even simple purchases like blaster pistols can dramatically shape a character's early playstyle, and the meager starting credits (500 by default) don't go very far. By the end of the episode, the party has assembled a crew: A Twi'lek smuggler pilot with secrets and imperial entanglements A Wookie slicer fighting for droid rights and running from the law A ship, an NPC astromech droid, and a galaxy full of problems The perfect setup for Star Wars. Welcome to the RPGBOT Podcast. If you love Dungeons & Dragons, Pathfinder, and tabletop RPGs, this is the podcast for you. Support the show for free: Rate and review us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any podcast app. It helps new listeners find the best RPG podcast for D&D and Pathfinder players. Level up your experience: Join us on Patreon to unlock ad-free access to RPGBOT.net and the RPGBOT Podcast, chat with us and the community on the RPGBOT Discord, and jump into live-streamed RPG podcast recordings. Support while you shop: Use our Amazon affiliate link at https://amzn.to/3NwElxQ and help us keep building tools and guides for the RPG community. Meet the Hosts Tyler Kamstra – Master of mechanics, seeing the Pathfinder action economy like Neo in the Matrix. Randall James – Lore buff and technologist, always ready to debate which Lord of the Rings edition reigns supreme. Ash Ely – Resident cynic, chaos agent, and AI's worst nightmare, bringing pure table-flipping RPG podcast energy. Join the RPGBOT team where fantasy roleplaying meets real strategy, sarcasm, and community chaos. How to Find Us: In-depth articles, guides, handbooks, reviews, news on Tabletop Role Playing at RPGBOT.net Tyler Kamstra BlueSky: @rpgbot.net TikTok: @RPGBOTDOTNET Ash Ely Professional Game Master on StartPlaying.Games BlueSky: @GravenAshes YouTube: @ashravenmedia Randall James BlueSky: @GrimoireRPG Amateurjack.com Read Melancon: A Grimoire Tale (affiliate link) Producer Dan @Lzr_illuminati

Every RPG player knows the real game doesn't start when the dice hit the table. No, the real adventure begins when some nerds open a rulebook, stare at a character sheet, and argue about whether a Wookiee hacker with a moral crusade for droid rights is mechanically viable. In this episode of the RPGBOT.Quickstart series, the crew tackles FFG Star Wars RPG character creation in Fantasy Flight's Edge of the Empire. Randall decides the galaxy clearly needs a Force-sensitive Wookie slicer, Ash plans to become the smooth-talking Twi'lek pilot with questionable ethics, and Tyler guides them through the rules like Han Solo navigating an astroid field. Fewer explosions, though. The crew debates Wookie vocal acting, and give a lot of attention to character backgrounds, motivations, and that fancy "obligation" mechanic that Tyler has been gushing about for the past 5 seasons. Show Notes In Part 2 of the RPGBOT Quickstart guide to the Fantasy Flight Star Wars RPG, the hosts dive deep into character creation for Edge of the Empire, walking listeners step-by-step through how to build a playable character from concept to crunch. The episode begins with a quick refresher on the core elements that define a character in the FFG Star Wars: Unlike traditional D&D-style builds focused on race and class alone, Star Wars characters are shaped by several narrative and mechanical layers: species, career, specialization trees, obligation, motivations, skills, and equipment. Understanding the Core Pieces of a Star Wars Character Characters start from their background and motiviation, which are mostly narrative, but your motivation can provide a recurring source of bonus experience points used to advance your character. Ash selects "Freedom," while Randall chooses "Droid Rights." Next is choosing a species, which determines starting attributes, wound thresholds, strain thresholds, and sometimes special abilities. The group reviews options like humans, droids, wookiees, and other iconic Star Wars species, each bringing unique mechanical strengths. From there, players select a career, the Star Wars equivalent of a class. Careers such as Smuggler, Technician, Bounty Hunter, Colonist, Explorer, and Hired Gun are available in Edge of the Empire, with other careers available in other core books. Each career also includes specialization trees: talent grids that players spend XP on to get exciting new talents. The Obligation Mechanic One of the defining mechanics of Edge of the Empire is the Obligation system. Each character begins with one or more "obligations": debts, blackmail, criminal records, or personal responsibilities that can become recurring problems during play. Players can choose from a table of suggestions or work with the GM to create their own. We like a d100 table, so we rolled. Ash rolls Blackmail, suggesting their former Imperial ties might come back to haunt them, while Randall rolls Criminal, representing legal trouble tied to a mysterious identity issue in which he's wanted for his own murder. The hosts discuss how obligation works at the table, and also how you can get some extra goodies at character creation for taking on extra Obligation. Spending Experience Points The group also covers starting XP allocation during character creation. Players spend XP to increase attributes, train skills, and unlock talents from specialization trees. Tyler explains the economic balance behind XP spending: Improving characteristics is expensive but powerful, while skills can offer cheaper and more focused improvements. Talents are similarly powerful, but often more complex than straight numerical improvements. Players can also spend XP to unclock new specializations, including from different careers. Tyler, who is in fact a generous GM, gives Ash and Randall a big pile of extra starting XP so that Randall can get force powers without cutting into his slicing skills. Equipment and Starting Gear Finally, character spend starting credits on equipment. Ash and Randall spend some time eyeballing armor, weapons, and other goodies. Even simple purchases like blaster pistols can dramatically shape a character's early playstyle, and the meager starting credits (500 by default) don't go very far. By the end of the episode, the party has assembled a crew: A Twi'lek smuggler pilot with secrets and imperial entanglements A Wookie slicer fighting for droid rights and running from the law A ship, an NPC astromech droid, and a galaxy full of problems The perfect setup for Star Wars. Welcome to the RPGBOT Podcast. If you love Dungeons & Dragons, Pathfinder, and tabletop RPGs, this is the podcast for you. Support the show for free: Rate and review us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any podcast app. It helps new listeners find the best RPG podcast for D&D and Pathfinder players. Level up your experience: Join us on Patreon to unlock ad-free access to RPGBOT.net and the RPGBOT Podcast, chat with us and the community on the RPGBOT Discord, and jump into live-streamed RPG podcast recordings. Support while you shop: Use our Amazon affiliate link at https://amzn.to/3NwElxQ and help us keep building tools and guides for the RPG community. Meet the Hosts Tyler Kamstra – Master of mechanics, seeing the Pathfinder action economy like Neo in the Matrix. Randall James – Lore buff and technologist, always ready to debate which Lord of the Rings edition reigns supreme. Ash Ely – Resident cynic, chaos agent, and AI's worst nightmare, bringing pure table-flipping RPG podcast energy. Join the RPGBOT team where fantasy roleplaying meets real strategy, sarcasm, and community chaos. How to Find Us: In-depth articles, guides, handbooks, reviews, news on Tabletop Role Playing at RPGBOT.net Tyler Kamstra BlueSky: @rpgbot.net TikTok: @RPGBOTDOTNET Ash Ely Professional Game Master on StartPlaying.Games BlueSky: @GravenAshes YouTube: @ashravenmedia Randall James BlueSky: @GrimoireRPG Amateurjack.com Read Melancon: A Grimoire Tale (affiliate link) Producer Dan @Lzr_illuminati

After yesterday's episode about the unchosen 450 actors & actresses who were in fact nominated for the AFI's Top 100 Stars list, now it's time to begin a quest. I will review the films of MANY of the 180-ish folks who this podcast has never discussed. And since Eddie Cantor, Ann Sothern, George Murphy & the Nicholas Brothers are in Kid Millions and the Three Stooges are in Soup To Nuts, I'm knocking 5 names off the "must-cover" list in 1 double episode! This 715th show on Have You Ever Seen digs into the musical-comedy adventure about Cantor inheriting a lot of money (Kid), then it's time for a zany goof about romance & chowderhead firefighters (Nuts). So strap in to hear about these two B&W romps from the '30s as my quest to talk about the previously-unreviewed AFI acting nominees takes flight. Well, Actually: at around the 16-minute mark, the line should have been "these are white actors playing Muslim Africans", not "Muslim Americans". Subscribe! Then you can't miss out when I post shows like this on days other than Monday. Rate and review Have You Ever Seen as well. And I finally posted some new reviews on Letterboxd not long ago! Look for "RyanHYES". Contact me with your OWN thoughts about the films I discuss: "ryan-ellis" on Bluesky, "@moviefiend51" on Twi-x and you can email me at "haveyoueverseenpodcast@gmail.com".

Somehow, MAUL returned! After an announcement at Star Wars Celebration Japan (which featured a trailer), Lucasfilm has finally released the first Teaser Trailer for MAUL – SHADOW LORD! This is a surprise to be sure, but a welcome one, especially after the news of Kathleen Kennedy stepping down, and Dave and Lynwen's ascension.Today we discuss this trailer, speculate on what might happen (and who might show up), and gush about the absolutely gorgeous art (Star Wars animation always knocks it out of the park!). This show features a new Twi'lek Jedi Padawan character called Devon Izara, who has had the whole fandom wondering if this is a canon iteration of the Sith Lady from the Expanded Universe, Darth Talon.Set in the planet Janix, and starring Sam Witwer as Maul, Shadow Lord was created by Dave Filoni and developed by Dave and Matt Michnovetz with Brad Rau is supervising director. Star Wars: Maul – Shadow Lord premieres on Disney+ April 6, 2026.• • •TRIAD Of The FORCE is a STAR WARS+ podcast hosted by Gus, Nani, & Chase—Puerto Rican and queer creators sharing deep dives, and heartfelt conversations from a galaxy far, far away. Featured on the STAR WARS CELEBRATION Podcast Stage (2022 & 2023), we explore STAR WARS, fantasy, comic books, and other POP-culture media honestly. We engage in inclusive commentary across film, TV, books, comics, and beyond with humor, critical analysis, and cultural perspective (without the toxicity).Follow TRIAD Of The FORCE at:BlueSky: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bsky.app/profile/triadoftheforce.bsky.social⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/triadoftheforce/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠YouTube: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/c/TriadoftheForce/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠If you like us, get some merch and help the channel:TeePublic: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.teepublic.com/user/triad-of-the-force⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠• • •Acknowledgement: The Intro and Outro music is the Triad of the Force Theme, composed and performed by Grushkov with full permission for use by Grushkov (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://linktr.ee/Grushkov⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠).• • •This channel is not affiliated in any way with Lucasfilm Ltd. LLC, The Walt Disney Company, or any of their affiliates or subsidiaries.