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Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with we are ending the week with Wall Street not finding much to like about future trade prospects, especially as policy shifts seem to be highly chaotic and involve personal retributions.US initial jobless claims rose last week to +195,000 when seasonal factors indicated it would fall. There are now just over 2 mln people claiming these benefits. This time last year there was just over 1.9 mln, a rise of +99,000.American consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 3.1% in July from 3% in June. This was held back only because of the widespread perception that petrol prices would fall. The median year-ahead expected change in food prices remained unchanged at 5.5%. Looking further ahead inflation expectations in fives rose to 2.9% from 2.6%.Meanwhile Q2 American labour productivity improved in data released today. It rose by 2.4% in the quarter following a revised -1.8% drop in the prior period. Analysts expected a +2% increase. Output increased by 3.7% (vs -0.6% in Q1) and hours worked increased by 1.3% (vs 1.2%).The US agricultural sector used to be a powerhouse export driver. But no more. Data released yesterday shows it has turned into a net importer, a trend that started in 2018 in the first Trump presidency. The first half of 2025 has now recorded its largest deficit on record, mainly on stuttering exports.Meanwhile, American consumer credit rose in June but only modestly. Total consumer credit rose by just +US$7.4 bln in the month, up from a +US$5.1 bln in May. These are minor changes and don't indicate any impending credit stress.Across the Atlantic in a tighter than expected vote, the Bank of England cut its policy rate by -25 bps to 4.0%. They have inflation running at 3.6% with a target of 2%. Five of the nine voting members voted for the cut, four wanted no-change. This was much closer than the 7:2 vote expected.In China, they are not only subsidising trade-in programs to help juice their domestic economy, now they are subsidising interest rates on personal loans. Consumer credit has not been traditionally popular in China, but young people are signing up much more freely. It is a sector that may grow to hold financial stability risks.Standard & Poor's have affirmed China's sovereign credit rating at A+ Stable. China's government gets a AAA rating from its own domestic ratings agencies, but Beijing was pleased anyway with the S&P result.Container freight rates fell -3% last week from the week before to be -58% lower than year-ago levels, although to be fair those were an unusual peak. Outbound from China was again the main weakness although outbound from the US is now showing up as a weakening trade too - and that starts with very low rates anyway. Bulk cargo rates were essentially unchanged over the past week and are now +18% higher than a year ago.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, up +3 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,391/oz, up US$17 from yesterday.American oil prices have slipped back again, down another -US$1 to just on US$64/bbl with the international Brent price down at just over US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at 59.5 USc and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 91.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.3, up +20 bps.The bitcoin price started today at US$116,442 and up +0.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/-1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news in search of short-term riches, the Cook Islands is establishing itself as a haven base for deep sea mining, it be used by both great powers.But first, American mortgage applications rose last week with a modest +3.1% gain from the prior week attributed to a small fall in benchmark mortgage interest rates. It was the stronger +5% refinance activity that drove the modest gain rather than new home purchases.Those benchmark rates may keep falling. There was slightly softer demand for the latest overnight US Treasury 10yr Note auction, but the resulting median yield came in at 4.20%, down from 4.31% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. However the yield is up on more recent levels.Separately, the NY Fed monitoring of global supply chain pressure eased again in July.In Canada, they are seeing residential real estate markets operating like we see here. For example Toronto sales transactions are rising (+13% in July from a year ago), but prices falling (-5.4% on the same basis).The Reserve Bank of India kept its key policy rate at 5.50% during its August meeting, now holding a neutral stance, following a larger-than-expected -50 bps decrease in June. There were no surprises here and the rate remains at its lowest level since August 2022. Easing inflation and the recent US tariff challenges were key considerations.Meanwhile, the US has doubled its tariffs on India to 50% as 'punishment' for buying Russian oil. Interestingly it has boosted Modi's standing at home in India and brought bi-partisan support for him in resisting the US.In China, they have brought in a ¥3,600 yuan (NZ$845) per year child care subsidy for under threes, designed to boost household consumption and ease pressure on family budgets. Encouraging childbirth is probably the core motivation for this subsidy. It is just another is a broadening range of consumer subsidies China is rolling out to support its economy and build domestic demand.EU retail sales volumes impressed in an overnight data release for June. They were up +3.1% on a volume basis, the best increase since September 2024. German gains were particularly strong, up +4.8% on the same volume basis.But new German factory orders again disappointed in June, down -1.0% in volume terms. Although this was twisted by some lumpy 'large' orders. Excluding those, the change is a gain of +0.5% in volume terms. (Large-scale items include aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles).Australia said living costs rose for all type of households in June. Over the past year, all LCIs rose between +1.7% and +3.1%, slowing from annual rises of between +2.4% and +3.5% to the March 2025 quarter. In the South Pacific, the Cook Islands is becoming a renegade state. Its deal with China allows the Chinese to use it as a base for deep sea mining. Now the US is keen to use it in the same way. These great powers see “one of the most promising regions for deep-sea mineral deposits.” These nations are keen to plunder as far away from themselves as possible.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.22%, up +2 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,374/oz, down -US$5 from yesterday.American oil prices have slipped back again, down another -50 USc to just under US$65/bbl with the international Brent price holding at just over US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at 59.4 USc and up +40 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.1, up +20 bps.The bitcoin price started today at US$115,465 and up +1.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the equity markets and the bond markets are flashing quite different signals, and equity markets seem quite out of step with the operating economic data. When these vary, there is usually a reckoning, and that usually (but not always) results in an equity correction.But first up today, the overnight dairy auction brought results similar to what the derivatives market expected, maybe slightly better because of show early season strength in WMP demand and prices. Volumes sold were the highest since October 2024. And helping the tone was the fall in the NZD which boosted the rise in local currency. Overall the event ended up +0.7% in USD and up +1.5% in NZD. The industry will be satisfied the new season is off to a good start.On the butter demand front, there was a noted fall off in demand at these prices - except frim China and Middle East buyers. There is enough there to keep prices elevated, although to be fair the butter price did ease +3.8% at this event.Meanwhile, the widely watched American ISM services PMI unexpectedly fell in July 2025 from June, and the result was lower than expected. The services sector is now nearly stagnant, with seasonal and weather factors having a negative impact on business. A slowdown was most evident in the fall in new orders - activity is still operating faster than new orders are arriving so that is not great for the future. Not slowing are price increases, so all the signs of stagflation here. However, the internationally-benchmarked S&P Global/Markit version told a more upbeat story.US exports fell in June from May but the fall was only minor, and from a year ago there were up +3.3%. US imports fell more sharply in the month to be -1.4% below year-ago levels. But that only results in their trade deficit being back to mif 2024 levels. Or 2023 levels. The needle has moved very little.But the RCM/TIPP sentiment survey rose in July although the move was minor. It mirrored the month's equity markets and this index also hit a 4 year high.American household debt rose by +US$185 bln in the June quarter to a new record high of US$18.4 tln. That is now 60.6% of GDP. The flow of household debt into serious delinquency was mixed across debt types, with credit card and car loans holding steady, student loans continuing to rise, and mortgages edging up slightly.In India, their services PMI tells a booming story. International orders and overall sales rose sharply from the fastest increase in business activity for 11 months. However, price pressures re-accelerated, so this boom comes with inflation consequences. It's a report in sharp contrast to the lackluster American equivalents. "Someone" is quite envious of their success and is threatening sharply higher tariffs.Meanwhile Trump is signaling that their endless 'truce' with China will get another extension.And China delivered a positive data surprise yesterday, with the private Caixin services PMI rising and by more than expected. (Remember the official NBS services PMI eased lower.) The Caixin China General Services PMI rose in July from June's nine-month low with the fastest expansion in the services sector since May 2024, and with new business growing at the strongest pace in a year.That is in contrast to the EU services PMI which remains weak, although it is still expanding.Quarterly June data out today in Australia shows household spending rose at a good rate, up +5.1% from the same month a year ago - and the rate it rose from March was good too. Discretionary spending was strong. Western Australia was the only jurisdiction where spending fell. On a volume basis (after inflation's impact), it is up +0.7%.Join us at 10:45am for the New Zealand labour market report for June, although it might just confirm the tough operating environment we are in.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.20%, up +1 bp from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,379/oz, up +US$7 from yesterday.American oil prices have slipped back again, down another -US$1 to just under US$65.50/bbl with the international Brent price just over US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at 59 USc and little-changed from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 66.9, down -10 bps.The bitcoin price started today at US$113,625 and down -1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/-1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news tough economic news keeps coming, even during this lazy August vacation period in the northern hemisphere.First, in the US factory orders were expected to retreat in June, consistent with the labour market and PMI signals - and they did. They were down -4.8% from May, although they are still up +6.6% from a year ago. The June falls were largely driven by a -22% plunge in transportation equipment orders. This same data confirmed the earlier durable goods order decrease in June of -9.4%.We are awaiting important services PMIs for July and they are expected to be much better than those for their factory sector.American economic uncertainty is now well embedded in consumer behaviour. Some brands are really suffering, and causing large writedowns.Meanwhile, American vehicle sales rose in July to an annualised rate of 16.4 mln, slightly more than expected because they got a boost ahead of expected price increases from the August 1 tariff-taxes. But the boost was relatively minor, just +3.6% ahead of the same level in July 2024.In China, parts of the country are battling heavier-than-usual rainfall. And that includes Beijing itself, a city of 22 mln. Dozens of people have died in flooding already. They are expecting 200 mm of rain to fall over the next 24 hours, on top of what they have had which created their emergency. Beijing's normal annual rainfall is 600 mm.In Australia, the Melbourne Institute's inflation gauge survey result brought an unwelcome surprise. It surged +0.9% in July, the steepest rise since December 2023 and a sharp rebound from June's modest +0.1% increase. The RBA is unlikely to be impressed because even if inflation is within range it seems to be testing the upper end of that range and a rate cut could well push it up out-of-range. Still, financial markets are pricing in a full -25 bps cut for Tuesday, August 12 when the RBA next meets. And they have priced in two more by the end of 2025. At this time, given inflation is proving harder to lick, that seems unlikely. And in turn there could be many disappointed market traders - and mortgage holders - as the year unfolds.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.19%, down -3 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,372/oz, up +US$10 from yesterday.American oil prices have slipped back again, down -US$1 to just under US$66.50/bbl with the international Brent price just over US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at 59 USc and down -20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -10 bps at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67, down -10 bps as well.The bitcoin price started today at US$115,217 and up +0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low again at just under +/-0.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news US President Trump is "making progress" is bending independent agencies (BLS, the US Fed) to respond to what is best for him, rather than the US economy.But the week ahead will all be focused locally on Wednesdays Household Labour Force survey results for July. Our jobless rate is expected to rise to 5.3% from 5.1% in June (and May). That would make it its highest since 2016 and exceeding anything we had in the pandemic period.Elsewhere the week will feature a raft of PMI and factory order releases. Plus, China will release key trade and inflation data.But the big economic driver for the week will be market reactions to Trump's tariff-war moves and his drive to bend both the Fed and the economic data agencies in the US to show fealty to him and avoid any negative reports. On Friday they sensed all this isn't good for the US economy and turned sharply risk averse even though corporate earnings reports have stayed positive.And that was because of Trump's response to official data he didn't like. He moved to fire the head of the data agency who reported it.Then a voting Fed official resigned, giving him a chance to twist more independence out of this crucial institution.The release of the July US labour market report showed the headline jobs gain was only +73,000 when +110,000 was expected. But worse, the June data was revised sharply lower to just +14,000 from the original +147,000. Their jobless rate edged higher to 4.2%. The number of people unemployed for at least 27 weeks has topped 1.8 mln now, the highest since the pandemic. Wage growth for the low-paid was unusually weak. This is a huge miss and there were sharp financial market reactions.Those are the seasonally adjusted numbers. The actual numbers are much worse, down -1,066,000 in July from June. To be fair much of that actual shrinkage is seasonal, but at 159.3 mln people employed, that is lower than in November 2024 when Trump won office.But with this July stumble in their labour market, it will be no surprise to know that the ISM factory PMI shows the same sharp retreat. In June this PMI was contracting with a 49.0 index level. It was expected to improve to a smaller contraction of 49.5. (An index level of 50 is the fulcrum between expansion and contraction.) But it went the other way, deepening its contraction to 48.0. Driving the retreat were new orders and order backlogs contracting, along with input costs increasing and exports falling. Overall, this is reporting their factory sector is contracting faster. (The internationally benchmarked S&P Global/Markit factory PMI version also reported a sharp drop info contraction in July, also largely on stagnating new order levels.)In China, like the official China factory PMIs had signaled, the independent Caixin PMI also signaled that their factory sector went backwards in July too. The Caixin survey isn't as negative as the official survey, but it now shows the overall sector in contraction. The Caixin survey tends to account better for mid-sized private manufacturers whereas the official survey includes the very large state-owned enterprises.China recognises the need to do more to stimulate internal consumption, and they are now committed to using subsidies as a key tool. Essentially they are subsidising trade-in prices to generate sales of new items. The target is to raise this subsidy level to ¥300 bln in 2025. On Friday they announced another ¥69 bln in ultra-long special treasury bonds will be issued for this purpose, the fourth tranche in the program.Another policy action announced on Friday involves their war on "involution", which they take to mean excessive or irresponsible competition involving a general race to the bottom. It was a feature of their housing crisis, and is a big worry for their car manufacturing industry. Top-down pressure to rein in this sort of behaviour is intense now. In fact, BYD is now indicating their production levels will be lower in future.However in Japan, Toyota has told suppliers that it aims to boost 2025 global production to about 10 million vehicles, underpinned by strong sales of hybrids despite concerns over the impact of American tariffs. (In the US, carmaker Ford is noting that tariffs are not helping them.)In Singapore, the latest PMI readings painted a mixed manufacturing outlook with the electronics sector in continued expansion whereas the overall manufacturing sector reverted to a marginal contraction. Declining now order levels caused the shift.In India, the growth of factory orders and production strengthened in July, driving their factory PMI up to an impressive 59.1, although that was a touch less than the result expected. Indian factories are easily the star of the show on a global basis.The EU released its July inflation data on Friday, and there were no surprises there with inflation stable at 2.0% in the Euro area. The overall level is still being restrained by falls in energy costs.Australian producer prices rose 3.4% over the past year to June, down from a 3.7% rate in the year to March, and down from a 4.8% rate in the year to June 2024. Cost pressures are still high, but they are easing, even if slowly.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.22%, up +1 bps from Saturday, down -18 bps for the week.The price of gold will start today at US$3,362/oz, up +US$14 from Saturday.American oil prices have slipped back again, now just over US$67/bbl with the international Brent price holding at US$69.50/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$65 and US$68.50/bbl. OPEC has agreed a big increase in oil production. And we should probably note another fall in North American oil rigs in action, now down to their lowest level since September 2021.The Kiwi dollar is at 59.2 USc and up +20 bps from Saturday but down nearly -1c from a week ago. Over all of July the fall was -180 bps. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -40 bps at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.1, unchanged from Saturday, down -60 bps for the weekThe bitcoin price started today at US$114,109 and up +0.8% from this time Saturday, but down -2.0% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news today is the day the US has promised to levy arbitrary tariffs but still no word about how Australia and New Zealand will fare. It's not the end of August 1 until later tomorrow in the US. In the meantime, Mexico has been the latest country to be granted a 90 day extension.Meanwhile, initial US jobless claims fell to 193,100 in the fourth week of July, just marginally more than seasonal factors would have accounted for. There are now 2.016 mln people on these benefits, +82,000 more than the 1.934 mln in the same week a year ago.US-based employers announced 62,075 job cuts in July, up +29% from June's 47,999 and up +140% from 25,885 announced in the same month last year. July's job cuts were also well above average for a July month since the pandemic.The US PCE price index rose +0.3% in June from May, the largest increase in four months, following an upwardly revised +0.2% gain in May. Prices for goods were up +0.4%, and prices for services rose +0.2%. The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy, also went up +0.3%, also its strongest monthly gain in four months. Year on year, the PCE was up +2.6%, the core PCE up +2.8%. With more broad tariffs ahead, plus firms now far less willing to absorb these burdens, the future track of US inflation looks like it has only upside.Personal disposable incomes rose +1.7% from June a year ago in the US, personal spending was up +2.1%.In the industrial heartland, the Chicago PMI contracted much less in July, after a good rise in new order levels. But it is still contracting, only slower.Canada may be being disrespected by its bully southern neighbour via tariff threats and economic pressure, but its economy is showing remarkable resilience. In May, their GDP eased just -0.1% while in June it rose +0.1%. This is a far better result for them than they may have expected given the taunts and penalties they have had to absorb. Unlike Mexico, they aren't getting any delay in US tariff changes.As expected, the Bank of Japan held its policy rate unchanged yesterday at 0.5%. The decision was unanimous, reflecting the central bank's cautious approach to policy normalisation.Japanese industrial production surged in June, and in a quite unexpected way. Year-on-year it was up +4.0%, month-on-month up +1.7%. A small retreat was expected.The official July PMIs for China were released yesterday, showing their factory sector contracting at a faster rate and their service sector expansion all but evaporating. These results are not disastrous, but they will worry Beijing all the same. The vibrancy they recently re-found isn't lasting.There were some very positive Australian retail trade data released yesterday. And oddly, this is the final data released for retail sales as they shift to their "Monthly household spending indicator" series. The final data for retail trade brought a +4.9% year-on-year burst in value terms, +1.5% in volume terms. These levels were far better than any analyst was expecting. The contrast with New Zealand is rather stark.There was a marked slowing in the growth of air travel in June, up +2.6% in June and half the +5.1% rise in the same month a year ago. The North American market was flat, but the Asia Pacific international market rose +7.2% and an outsized gain.The June air cargo market expanded little overall, up +0.8% from a year ago. But that was because of a sharp retreat in cargo volumes in North America (down -8.3% for domestic cargoes, down -6.1% in international cargoes). Elsewhere international cargo volumes rose +1.6% and Asia Pacific volumes were up +8.3%.Container freight rates were little changed last week (-1%) with outbound rates from China the weakest segment. From a year ago these rates are now -56% lower although to be fair they were unusually high a year ago on Red Sea security problems. Bulk freight rates fell -5.3% over past week from the prior week to be +13% higher than year-ago levels.It's probably worth noting that after the large fall in the copper price we noted yesterday, there has been no bounce - it is still falling.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.36%, down -1 bp from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,294/oz, up +US$17 from yesterday.American oil prices have slipped back -US$1.50 at just on US$69/bbl with the international Brent price is now at just on US$71.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar was at 58.9 USc and and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 91.7 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.4, up +20 bps from yesterday helped by a rise against the yen which fell back after their central bank meeting.The bitcoin price started today at US$117,775 and essentially unchanged again (+US$9) from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/-1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news a no-change Fed has brought sharp market reactions, bolstered by an odd tariff twist.As expected, the US central bank left its key policy rates unchanged at the 4.25%–4.50% target range for a fifth consecutive meeting. They see the data pointing to 'a moderation in economic activity' during the first half of the year, contrasting with earlier assessments that growth was proceeding 'at a solid pace'. They noted that the unemployment rate remains low while inflation remains elevated, and uncertainty about the economic outlook persists. The vote was 9-2 with both dissenters wanting a lower rate and both wanting to be chosen by Trump to replace Powell.Markets are still digesting the Fed signals, but immediately after the US dollar rose although not significantly, the UST 10yr yield was little-changed initially then rose but only slightly, and the S&P500 rose but then equally quickly gave that bump up to now be lower. Gold kept falling. Bitcoin yawned, holding in the unchanged level it has had for the past three weeks. But then it woke up and fell out of that range, down -1.3%.Although US home loan interest rates were unchanged last week, mortgage applications fell, both for refinancing and for new purchases. And the June pending home sales report also out today paints a worrying picture for their housing sector with sales -2.8% lower from a year ago. Eight of the last twelve months have recorded year-on-year decreases.The July labour market report will be released on Saturday (NZT) and is expected to record a modest +110,000 jobs growth. Today the precursor ADP Employment Report was released suggesting private payrolls grew +104,000. (This ADP report is a good tracker of the non-farm payrolls report over the longer term, but not so reliable for any current month.)The first look at the Q2-2025 US GDP growth rate is out, showing a +3.0% rise, and better than the expected +2.4% result. But almost all of this is due to rising imports (+5%). Consumer spending contributed less than +1%. Investment activity was -3% negative in this result. Public spending and exports both made almost zero contribution. Although +3% is 'good' it is an unhealthy twist although that may not last. Of more concern is the dive in investment.North of the border, the Canadian central bank also reviewed its monetary policy position overnight, and it too held its rate unchanged at 2.75%.In the EU, the July sentiment surveys were out for the bloc and while they 'improved' in fact they remain in their long term range. So essentially, no change.In Singapore, their central bank equivalent, the Monetary Authority of Singapore kept its policy stance unchanged in yesterday's update.In Australia, and led by a fall in services inflation, overall CPI inflation dropped to 2.1% in Q2 2025 from 2.4% in the prior two periods, marking its lowest figure since Q1 2021 and below forecasts of 2.2%. June inflation alone was only +1.9% above year ago levels. Today's data removes any awkwardness posed by inflation remaining too high for the RBA and they are now very much more likely to cut by -25 bps on August 12 to 3.60%.On the tariff-war front, the US has imposed a 50% tariff on copper imported into the US - but then made a bewildering exception, for refined copper. Traders had been stockpiling copper ahead of this decision but weren't expecting the exception. So there is far more refined copper in the US than they need at a cost they don't need. It has caused havoc in the copper price overnight with an immediate -20% drop.The US imposed a 25% tariff on imports from India.Talks with China have been inconclusive in Stockholm and will no doubt drag on unresolved over the '90 day extension' period. China will count that as a win.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.37%, up +4 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,277/oz, down -US$50 from yesterday with most of it after the US Fed decision.American oil prices have risen another +US$1.50 at just under US$70.50/bbl with the international Brent price is now at just on US$73.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar was at 59.2 USc and down -30 bps from yesterday pre the Fed. Then it fell another -30 bps to 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.2, down another -30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price started today at US$117,766 and essentially unchanged again (+US$51) from this time yesterday. But after the US Fed decision, it took a -1.3% tumble. Volatility over the past 24 hours rose to +/-1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the IMF says global growth is projected at 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, an upward revision from the April 2025 World Economic Outlook. This reflects front-loading ahead of tariffs, lower effective tariff rates, better financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in some major jurisdictions.But first, the overnight GDT Pulse dairy prices came in without the signaled drop in WMP prices by the derivatives market. In fact it rose +1% from the prior event. The SMP price however fell -1%. So in fact little net movement.And the Stockholm US-China tariff negotiations are to be extended, essentially ignoring the US imposed August 1 deadline. And the US-EU 'deal' wasn't 'done' as the Whitehouse claimed. More 'horse-trading' is being scheduled.The growth steam is slowly leaking from the Redbook retail index, up +4.9% last week from this time last year. Most of this will be goods inflation.US exports rose +3.4% in June from a year ago whereas US imports were up +0.3% on the same basis. That reduced their merchandise trade deficit to -US$87 bln and back to about where it was at the start of 2024. Without the +11% rise in aircraft exports there would have been little improvement.The number of job openings in the US fell by -275,000 from May to 7.4 mln in June, below market expectations of 7.55 mln. Their quit rate fell to a six month low. Expectations for the July non-farm payrolls are pretty modest at +110,000, taking them back to early 2025 levels.The latest Conference Board survey of consumer sentiment, for July, was little changed. But almost 19% of those surveyed indicated that jobs were hard to get in July, up from 14.5% in January. This group thought inflation was running at 5.8% currently, and is likely to go higher.There was a very well supported US Treasury bond auction overnight, for their seven year Note. But investors still wanted higher yields with the median coming in at 4.06%, up from 3.96% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.But expect rising pressure from the demand side. The US Treasury said during the July - September 2025 quarter, they expect to borrow US$1.007 tln in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of US$850 bln - which may be optimistic. This new borrowing estimate is +US$453 bln higher than they announced in April so it is rising faster than even they expected, primarily due to the lower beginning-of-quarter cash balance and projected lower net cash flows.In Europe, the latest ECB survey of inflation expectations has them well contained, coming in at 2.6% for the year ahead, the lowest in four months. Policymakers there are not battling high inflation expectations.Later today, Australia will release its Q2 CPI inflation rate, expected to be 2.2% and down from the 2.4% in Q1-2025.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.33%, down -9 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,327/oz, up +US$18 from yesterday.American oil prices have risen +US$2.50 at just under US$69/bbl with the international Brent price is now at just over US$72/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.6 USc and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 51.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.5, down another -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,725 and essentially unchanged (+US$61) from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained low at just on +/-0.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with talks are underway in Stockholm between the US and China over a trade/tariff deal. Prospects are not high.And the recent EU-US deal has the makings of unravelling. Both France and Germany are unhappy about the outcome, made worse by the US claiming verbally pharmaceuticals have been excluded when the EU negotiators said they were not excluded from the 15% written deal.The big casualty in all of these deals, including the Japanese one, is trust in the US. Smartarse public commenting by the US president - even some of his advisers - means the deals struck are unlikely to be respected by the US or trusted by the others. The result isn't "a deal", it is a fluid mess.New Zealand's situation in all this will be a footnote, probably sometime on Saturday.In the US, the Dallas Fed's factory survey improved sharply in July, but this was all about higher production. New orders are still contracting, even if at a slower rate. Elevated input price pressures continued in July. Improved sentiment is driving the raised output even in the absence of a pickup in new orders.Financial market eyes are now turning to Thursday's (NZT) US Federal Reserve meeting and decisions. Despite the overt Whitehouse pressure, financial market pricing shows virtually no-one is pricing in a rate cut.In Canada, wholesale sales came in better than expected, up +0.7% in June from May when a -0.2% retreat was anticipated. But despite that good recent gain, they will still be lower than in June 2024.Across the Pacific, from 2022 to 2024, Taiwanese consumer confidence rose. But since October 2024 it has been falling. However the July survey rose, the first break in the recent down-trend. It wasn't a big move from June, but they will take it.In China, they are taking something they don't want. Foreign direct investment recorded another net outflow in June, and a worse one than the highly unusual April net outflow. The reasonable start to 2025 is being undone faster now. In the six months to June they have had a net inflow of US$42.3 bln. In 2024 they had more than that in just the first three months and even that was much weaker than in 2023 (US$98 bln) or 2022 (US$112 bln). Fleeing investors isn't a good look for China.Indian industrial production expanded a rather weak +1.5% in June from a year ago, held back by surprisingly weak mining (coal) production.. In their factories however, the story is much better with manufacturing production us +3.9% from a year ago, a better rise than in May although less than the +4.5% expected.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.42%, up +3 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,309/oz, down -US$27 from yesterday.American oil prices have risen +US$1.50 at just on US$66.50/bbl with the international Brent price is now at just under US$70/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.7 USc and down -½c from yesterday and back to where it was a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 51.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.6, down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,664 and down -1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained low at just on +/-0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news - despite the US tariff news flooding the zone - the rest of the world economy is find a way to carry on.But first we should note that a 15% tariff deal seems to have been concluded between the EU and the US but one that excludes drugs and aluminium. It looks very like the Japanese deal. And the tariff tussle between China and the US looks like it has been extended another 90 days. The pressure will be on European and Japanese companies to become 15% more efficient, but US companies will relax, allowed to be 15% less efficient in their home markets. In the intermediate term this won't be good for global US competitiveness.In a look ahead this coming week, we will get our usual New Zealand monthly business and consumer sentiment survey updates. And our big end-of-month data dump from the RBNZ accentuated because it is end of quarter data. In Australia, it will be all about retail trade and inflation metrics.And Wall Street will be very busy with many more large companies releasing earnings.But the big interest rate influence will be from the central bank decisions from the US (no change expected), Japan (no change), and Canada (also no change). In all three cases the real interest will be on their commentary.Underlying all this will be July PMIs from most major economies, plus more Q2 GDP data, and many inflation updates.Over the weekend China released industrial profits data to June. They reported another slide, down -4.3% from June a year ago, the second straight monthly decline, amid persistent deflation pressures and growing trade uncertainty. State-owned enterprises experienced steeper losses while profit growth in the private sector slowed markedly. Profit gains were recorded in many sectors but one interesting one was in agriculture where profits were up more than +20%.In Russia, and as expected, they cut their policy rate by -200 bps to 18%. They signaled another cut is likely in 2025. They see disinflation on the rise, and household consumption lower. Part of that is due to the size of the diaspora of working aged men trying to avoid the death trap of the attempted invasion of Ukraine.In Europe, the ECB's survey of professional forecasters shows they don't expect much change in the coming year with things constrained by trade questions. They see inflation easing slightly, mainly due to the tariff effects, but GDP growth slightly stronger in the short term.The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany edged up in July from June, to the highest level since May 2024. But the report was still full of cautious sentiment.In the US and as expected durable goods orders fell back in June after the May spike. Apart from the aircraft and defense sectors, it remained pretty ho-hum. New orders rose just +0.1%. Non-defense non-aircraft orders for capital goods fell when a rise was anticipated.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.39%, unchanged from Saturday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,336/oz, down -US$2 from Saturday.American oil prices have stayed softish at just on US$65/bbl with the international Brent price is still at just under US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60.2 USc and up +10 bps from Saturday and up almost +½c from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are stable at 51.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.7, unchanged from Saturday but up +20 bps from a week ago.The bitcoin price starts today at US$119,210 and up +2.4% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news there are more tariff-deals being done, of the free trade type, but just not with the US and their mutually punitive style.In the US, jobless claims dipped last week, mainly on seasonal factors. There are now 2,016,000 people on these benefits, +5.3% more than the 1,914,000 on them this time last year.Sales of new single-family homes rose marginally in June from May's seven-month low to be well below what market expected. The number of unsold homes on the market rose to 511,000, the highest since October 2007 and now almost ten months of supply at the current sales pace.The July US S&P Markit factory PMI fell back into contraction which was very unexpected because a rise in the expansion was expected. However, this was masked by a strong rise in their service economy in July.The Kansas City Fed factory survey slipped back into contraction in July after its rare expansion in June. They reported increased factory activity but new order growth was weak and order backlogs fell sharply.In Canada, their advance estimate of retail sales suggests that sales increased +1.6% in June. That more than makes up for the -1.1% fall in May and is much better than the -0.3% fall expected.Meanwhile in Japan, the same S&P Global/Markit factory PMI unexpectedly contracted in July from June's 13-month high but minimal expansion. A small rise was expected.In India, they are starting to see rising international demand in their factory sector, and this pushed up their July factory PMI to a strong expansion.And India has signed a free trade deal with the UK, one touted to bring NZ$10 bln in mutual benefits.Also expected soon is a China-EU trade deal.In Europe, the eurozone PMI for July reported a further increase in business activity during the month, with the pace of expansion quickening to the fastest for almost a year amid a stabilisation of new orders. Output growth was at an 11 month high for them. Cost inflation is easing.Meanwhile, as expected the ECB rate review decision delivered no change. This effectively marks the end of its current easing cycle after eight cuts over the past year that brought borrowing costs to their lowest levels since November 2022. And don't forget, they remain in a tightening phase because they no longer reinvest maturing bonds issued during the pandemic emergency.In Australia, the S&P Global/Markit factory PMI expanded slightly faster in July, on the back of the sharpest overall rise in new business in over three years. This was despite export orders still contracting. The same report shows price pressures intensified, hinting at higher inflation in Australia in the coming months.And staying in Australia, research by the RBA shows that international students play a significant role in the Australian economy. They contribute to demand through their spending on goods and services and are an important source of labour for some Australian businesses. When there are large swings in international student numbers or when the economy has little spare capacity, this means that changing international student numbers can affect macroeconomic outcomes, particularly in sectors of the economy where supply cannot respond quickly. The rapid growth in international student numbers post-pandemic likely contributed to high inflation over this period, but was not a major driver. But they do push up rents.Container freight rates dropped another -3% last week to be -57% lower than year-ago levels, although to be fair the year-ago levels were unusually high. Outbound rates from China to the US are the weakest routes at present. But bulk cargo rates rose another +11% over the past week to be +13% higher than year-ago levelsThe UST 10yr yield is now at 4.41%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,369/oz, down -US$18 from yesterday.American oil prices are marginally firmer at just under US$65.50/bbl but the international Brent price is still at just on US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60.4 USc and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we have dipped -10 bps to 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 51.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.8, up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,232 and up +1.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

The Brothers Krynn return to share their fan fiction, The Kenobi Timeline. Inspired by the Legends novel, Secrets of the Jedi, the story follows the what-if scenario of Obi-Wan and Obi-Wan's lover, Siri secretly having a child. From there events unfold unexpectedly, especially with lesser-known companions of Anakin and Obi-Wan who are the focus of the narrative. Each of these characters has a fully fleshed-out backstory with motivations that weave into but never contradict the events of the Prequels. As you listen along, you can refer to the character glossary provided by the Brothers Krynn: Tahlon Kenobi: son of Obi-Wan Kenobi and Siri Tachi (Kenobi), Wields a double-sided Blue lightsaber, his style is Form IV (Ataru variant) Talanis Salazzar: Mandalorian warrior woman, 5 years older than Tahlon. Number one Mandalorian bounty-hunter after Jango Fett Darael Feran: Trandoshan Jedi Master, Wields double-sided Green lightsaber, his style is Form III (Soresu variant), Melirah Stardust's master before leaving the order to join the Jedi, who chose to leave to work with Dooku in the CIS Melirah Stardust: A young Jedi, same age as Anakini with Red hair, born on Tattooine to a Moisture Farmer, she is hot-headed, yet dreams of being a healer. She was Darael Feran's padawan. She is the most gifted seer of her generation. Her style is Form VI (Jar'Kai) (Form IV Ataru Variant) Her right-handed lightsaber is yellow, her left-handed one is blue Mi'kraan Darklighter: A young Jedi, born on the same day, same hour as Melirah, though the two are not related, they share a bond with each other. She is tall and blonde haired, statuesque, the more beautiful of the two. A gentle soul who specializes in diplomacy and teaching younglings. She dislikes violence in all its forms, and has requested to resign her military position, but has been refused. A favourite of Yoda. Her style is Form VI (Jar'Kai) (Form III Soresu variant) Her right-hand lightsaber is Green, her left-hand is Yellow Fergus Feld: One year older than Anakin, a personality like Sturm Brightblade (Dragonlance), is fanatically loyal to the order, and a good friend of Tahlon. He does not trust Anakin and thinks he will turn to the darkside, and in extension dislikes Obi-Wan, a favourite of Yoda, who was abused by his master, Yaduu. His lightsaber style is Form V, and Form VII (Shien/Djem-So and Juyo) his lightsaber colour is blue Grrwyan: A wookie Jedi Tahlon grew up with. He dislikes Tahlon. His style is Form V (Shien/Djem-So) His lightsaber colour is Blue Ivec'leba: A twi'lek initiate Tahlon grew up with, she was sold into slavery, and liberated by Millennia Far'lin. She dies in Tahlon's arms when he is an initiate Jedi Master Chirus: A half-Blind Solustan jedi, who exposed his previous padawan's affair with another jedi, which led her to commit suicide, which traumatized. He later becomes Tahlon's master, and is three years older than Dooku. He dies on Geonosis. His apprentice was a young woman by the name of Yasmina Shen. Her former lover fled with her child to the outer rim, and founded a Jedi cult which her widow and son will end up fighting in the clone wars on the side of the Republic, as Chirus made peace with him three years before he died. Chirus' style is Form VI (Niiman) His colour is Green. Millennia Farland: The daughter of a deceased freedom fighter of Ryloth, Millennia picked up his torch and his movement to liberate all the Twi'leks from the Hutts and the Exchange, she has since become the Senator of Renkloth. (We set the planet in the neighbouring star system next to Ryloth.) She is a firebrand, who is friends of Tahlon, hates the Hutts and consistently pushes for Republican interference in twi'lek affairs, and has become disillusioned with the Senate. She is also given a military commission for the Grand Army of the Republic. Alpha Squad: Tahlon's personal Commando unit. They consist of RC-1515 “Quinze” (Leader), RC-9888 “Zuko” (Demolitions), RC-0109 “Nate” (Weapons) and RC-2898 “Wyatt” (Tech Specialist) RC-1515 “Quinze”: The leader of Alpha Squad, he has a sardonic sense of humour, similar to that of Qui-Gon Jinn. He is also strict, and at times inflexible, and is very shy around beautiful women. He is force sensitive. RC-9888 “Zuko”: The Demolitions expert of Alpha Squad, he is argumentative, severe, who complains a lot, and has a bit of a temper. He is always arguing and fighting with Nate, and yet the two consider each other almost twins. RC-0109 “Nate”: The weapons expert: He is chatty, gabby, cheerful and friendly. Nate loves heavy-grade weaponry. He considers his voice a gift from the force. He also loves show tunes and pretty women. RC-2898 “Wyatt”: The Tech specialist, he is sarcastic, a little vain about his appearance, he has a superiority complex in regards to his IQ, and is the quiet member of the team, even as he considers himself a connoisseur of fine arts and pop stars. ARC-Commander 1139 “Hale”: Commander of the 339th Legion, he serves as Mi'kraan's clone commander. Where she dislikes violence, he revels in it. He is cold and calculating, and a General of the highest quality. He was one of the top graduates from Kamino in strategy and tactics. ARC-Commander 3615 “Boom”: Commander of the 431th Legion. Tahlon's clone commander, his solution to every problem is explosives, bombardment, and even more explosives. He is very good friends with Nate and Zuko. He is fairly cheerful by nature. ARC-Commander 1238 “Krath”: Commander of the 436th Legion. One of the most bloodthirsty clone commanders, and is absolutely ruthless. He believes in no mercy, and has a belief system akin to Canderous Ordo, except he scorns the disloyal and self-serving Mandalorians, and thinks that Clones are superior to them, as he does the Jedi, whom he holds in high regard. He is Melirah's clone commander. ARC-Commander 1138 “Crusher”: Commander of the 189th Legion. Another ruthless clone commander with a cold and impatient side, who believes people have to win his respect, as he hates incompetence, and has no patience for fools. He is the finest clone commander in the galaxy. He serves under Fergus, and has been lauded by Mace Windu. CT-1159 Sergeant “Muln”: A rambunctious, duty-obsessed starfighter pilot in the Republic Navy, he serves under Melirah, and is a quick shot, and impulsive pilot. He is named after Garen Muln, the finest pilot in the galaxy. Darin Pol: A Kel-Dor Martial Artist and security officer who volunteers for the navy, and is put in Melirah's Legion. will continuously reference Justice. He is wise, and the sworn brother of Sergeant Muln Darth Malignus: A Sith Knight trained by a Sith cult that swears itself to Count Dooku and the CIS, he is the top warrior of the cult, and is from the planet Sorrus. His lightsaber is the sith variant of Form VI (Jar'Kai, Form V Shien/Djem-So variant,) He is very much inspired by Dinobot from Beast Wars.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of more big-country tariff negotiation updates.But first, US mortgage applications were little-changed last week as their benchmark 30 year mortgage rate rose.Meanwhile, American home resales fell in June from May to an annualised rate of under 4 mln and down -4.4% from June 2024. This was largely driven by declining sales of single family homes. But median prices inched up, now at US$435,300 (NZ$720,000). High mortgage rates are getting the blame.There was another US Treasury bond auction overnight, this one for their 20 year maturity. It was well supported with a median yield of 4.89%. That was little different to the 4.88% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.The US has said it has agreed a 15% tariff deal with Japan (a notable level lower than the arbitrary 25% previously imposed). The main thing Japan had to do was agree to buy things (like aircraft) that would probably have bought from the US anyway. But it also supposedly requires Japan to water down its standards for rice imports and open their markets to US cars. Both of those requirements show a distinctly naive understanding of Japan. Very likely they will drive an anti-US sentiment by consumers there, mirroring what is happening in Canada. Japanese investors loved the deal - for Japan. boosting the Nikkei225 +2.2% at its market opening yesterday and ending the day up +3.5%.The Japanese bond market - an enormous beast - reacted with Japan's 10-year government bond yield surging nearly +10 bp to around 1.60% approaching its highest level since 2008.In South Korea, the glow after resolving its presidential issues has seen its Consumer Sentiment Index rise in July from June, the fourth consecutive monthly gain and the highest reading since January 2018. The improvement reflects growing optimism fueled by the newly elected government and expectations for economic stimulus.Taiwanese industrial production continues to expand aggressively, up another +18% in June from a year ago, no surprise given the strong order inflows we reported earlier this week. But Taiwanese retail sales are nowhere near as positive, actually.In Europe, there is growing optimism some sort of tariff deal with the US is imminent. The US-Japan deal is being seen as a benchmark, and the optimism is fuel by the early judgement that Japan will come out on top in that one.In Australia, economic growth momentum is leaking away. At least, that is what the Westpac-Melbourne Institute leading indicator data shows. For them, the main drag coming from commodity prices, consumer and business sentiment, and total hours worked.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.39%, up +5 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3,387/oz, down -US$40 from yesterday.American oil prices are holding at just over US$65/bbl but the international Brent price is still at just under US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60.4 USc and up +40 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +25 bps at 51.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.7, up +20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,867 and down -1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest, at just under +/-1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Devori does a war crime against Jeff and makes him watch what surely is the worst film ever watched on this pod.Host segments: existential dread not found; Taylor Lautner is wasted in this one; dying by misadventure vs. murder-bear; it's just shirts and skins; the Twilight to T. Swizzle pipeline.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news precious metals prices are having a moment - in US dollars at least, largely because the US dollar is extending its retreat. The same impact is affecting commodities like copper. Prices are rising in the US as a consequence of tariff-taxes which are pushing down the value of the greenback.But first, the dairy Pulse auction for SMP and WMP brought better results than the futures markets expected. SMP was up +1.7% and slightly better than the +1.5% expected. But the big mover was WMP which rose +1.5% when a -4% retreat was expected. The continuation of better prices will be something of a quiet relief in this industry.In the US. the retail impulse continued to expand last week, up +5.1% from a year ago. But the suspicion lingers that much of this is the inclusion of tariff taxes, despite what the CPI indicates.And those tariff taxes hurt the results in the latest Richmond Fed factory survey. This was their worst result in ten months and was led by a sharp retreat in new orders. Input cost growth stayed up.The cost of those tariff-taxes on US companies was on full display in US earnings reports. For Stellantis (Chrysler) it was US$300 mln, for GM US$1 bln. Both ate away at reported profits significantly. It is hard to see these type of companies absorbing costs like this for much longer.Across the Pacific, Taiwanese export orders continued their outstanding growth, up almost another +-25% in June from the same month in 2024 which itself led year-ago levels. It is hugely impressive and continues a very strong 2025 monthly set. It is their electronics industry leading the way.Sentiment in Japan bounced back yesterday as it became a clearer bet that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is expected to remain in office despite the embarrassing performance of his party at the recent upper house elections. But holding on, he will be a damaged leader. The upstart ‘Japanese First' Sanseito party has emerged as powerful force after these elections, and that was despite a 'secret' Russian campaign to support them (and destabilise Japan) that was exposed before voting.In the Europe, the ECB's latest credit survey fund a twist towards housing lending there. While credit standards for company loans remained broadly unchanged, credit standards tightened slightly for housing loans and more markedly for consumer credit. But this was because housing loan demand continued to increase strongly, while demand for company loans remained weak.In Australia, the vultures are out targeting vulnerable borrowers who are debt stressed. It has ASIC worried and they have launched a review into the debt management and credit repair sector in an effort to protect those experiencing financial hardship. Expect the Commerce Commission here to assess whether it needs to do similar work.Staying in Australia, the RBA released the minutes of its July 8 meeting and they revealed little new. They left its cash rate steady at 3.85% at this meeting, defying market forecasts for a -25 bps cut. The move was passed by majority vote, six in favour and three against. These minutes were full of "wait and see" sentiment, "data dependent" notes. Part of the waiting-to-see is because they doubt Trump will actually do what he threatens. They buy the TACO view apparently.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.34%, down -3 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3,427/oz, up another +US$34 from yesterday. And that almost matched its record high on April 21.And the silver price has pushed on up over US$39/oz It isn't yet threatening its 2011 peaks (US$48) but the recent climb has some people quite excited.American oil prices are -US$2 softer at just on US$65/bbl but the international Brent price is only down -50 USc at just under US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60 USc and up +25 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.5, up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$119,198 and up +1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest, at just under +/-1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news China is having second thoughts about how some industries are operating with their super-competitive impulses.But first, a widely followed American leading index tracker weakened in June. The US Conference Board's LEIcontinued its fall which started in mid 2022 and has picked up its pace of decline somewhat. The LEI fell by -2.8% over the first half of 2025, a substantially faster rate of decline than the -1.3% contraction over the second half of 2024. For a second month in a row, the stock price rally was the main support of the LEI. But this was not enough to offset still very low consumer expectations, weak new orders in manufacturing, and a third consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance.And a new attack vector on the US Fed by their Treasury Secretary probably won't help.But investors are happy, pushing the S&P500 up to a new record high, emboldened by tariff protections that will bring short-term gains.North of the border. Canadian producer prices were expected to fall in June continuing an easing that started in February. However they rose moderately to be +1.7% higher than a year ago. But the rise seemed to be caused by a jump in the precious metals corner of this index rather than more generally. So the impact isn't significant.More generally in Canada's economy, a central bank survey shows that tariffs and related uncertainty, along with spillover effects on the Canadian and global economies, continue to have major impacts on businesses' outlooks. However, the worst-case scenarios that firms envisioned last quarter are now seen as less likely to occur.A parallel survey of Canadian consumers revealed a concerned public, one that saw a tough future. But the US copped almost all the blame, and Canadians said they are prioritising local purchases now at the expense of US sourced goods and services. Travel to the US is off their agenda.Across the Pacific, the People's Bank of China kept key Loan Prime Rates (LPR) at record lows during the July fixing yesterday, as was expected. The economic resilience in the Chinese economy means they are keeping their powder dry, even though American tariffs and threats remain a concern. But those resonate less at present.China seems to be taking quite broad central policy actions to transform its industrial policies. Using the excuse of the "trade-war crisis" as motivation, it has released a digital transformation plan for their auto industry alongside similar initiatives for machinery and power equipment. Within those they are moving to promote the "orderly exit of outdated production capacity" as part of its broader industrial strategy.Part of the motivation is to rein in the ultra-competitive nature of Chinese commerce at present, a nationwide race to the bottom in terms of pricing while satisfying rising consumer standards. The big fear is that, uncurbed, it will bankrupt whole industries. They already have enough problems with their property sector. They think they don't need the same in the automotive, and machinery manufacturing sectors as well.In Australia, forecasting conducted for car dealerships suggest vehicles manufactured in China will make up almost half of sales within a decade in a major market shift.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.37%, down -6 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,393/oz, up +US$45 from yesterday.American oil prices are softer at just over US$67/bbl while the international Brent price is now just on US$69/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.8 USc and up +15 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.4, down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,913 and down a minor -0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just on +/-1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with US tariff news probably dominating this week as many countries get letters from Trump. That will likely include Australia and New Zealand.While the direct effect on us will probably be as expected, we will be more vulnerable to secondary impacts - although Canada, Japan, China and the EU all seem to be taking things in their stride, better than anticipated. It seems clear and confirmed tariff taxes are paid by the importing country companies, and the lasting damage will be to US companies and their competitiveness. The forced reassessments elsewhere may prove galvanising for resilience.But first, this week will be all about the New Zealand June quarter CPI result which will be released today at 10:45am. We will have full coverage. It is widely expected to come in higher at 2.8% and the RBNZ too has said it will be higher than what they expected in their May MPS review (2.4%).China will also review its Loan Prime rates today, but those are not expected to change from their record low levels.The ECB, Russia and Turkey will review policy rates this week and there will be a range of early July PMI data out for a number of countries. But nothing really major.But crucial will be the results of the Sunday Japanese upper house election. Those results are coming in now and it seems clear the current coalition government has lost significant support - and with it they are in for a period of less stable fiscal policy until things settle down.In the US, eyes will be on more corporate earnings, with more tech and industrial majors reporting this week including Google and Tesla.Eyes will also be on the will-he-won't-he question of whether Trump will try to fire Powell. (One irony in this saga is that Trump accuses Powell of overspending on a Fed building refurbishment - one initiated by Trump in his first term with the exhortation to 'don't be cheap' and to 'use more marble'.)Staying in the US, a surge in multi-unit house building in the Northeast propelled its overall June housing starts to a good rebound after the very weak May result. But starts for single family homes fell -4.6%, and the starts in the South fell -0.7%, in the West they fell -1.4% and in the Midwest the dropped -5.3%. It clearly remains a fragile sector.Stabilising was the sentiment survey from the University of Michigan for July. It ticked up slightly from June but is still almost -7% lower than year-ago levels. But it is off the canvas because it is now higher than any month since February. Inflation expectations eased back a bit too in July from June.Across the Pacific, Japan's annual inflation rate eased to 3.3% in June 2025 from 3.5% in the previous month, marking the lowest reading since last November. Most components eased, but not food, which rose 7.2%, the most since March, a surge due to the doubling of rice prices over the fast year.In Malaysia, their economy expanded by +4.5% year-on-year in Q2-2025, slightly up from +4.4% growth in the previous period. For them domestic demand was robust, but exports were a bit weaker than anticipated.In Australia, it will be a quiet week of economic data releases and there isn't much chance the release of the RBA minutes on Tuesday (tomorrow) will bring any surprises or special insights.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.43%, up +1 bp from Saturday at this time and back where it was a week ago. The price of gold will start today at US$3,348/oz, down -US$3 from Saturday.American oil prices are unchanged at just under US$67.50/bbl while the international Brent price is now just over US$69/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is still at 59.6 USc and unchanged from Saturday - but down -50 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 51.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.5, unchanged from Saturday as well.The bitcoin price starts today at US$118,085 and up +0.3% from this time Saturday but essentially unchanged from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low, at just over +/-0.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Canada has conceded it has lost its dairy dispute with New Zealand.But first in the US, actual initial jobless claims in the US rose sharply to 261,000 from the previous week but that was less than seasonal factors would have suggested. There are now 2,017,000 people on these benefits, +4% more than year ago levels and the most in four months.After three down months, the Philly Fed factory survey recovered in July. New order intakes rose. But also rising was the prices firms paid for their inputs and what they charged their customers. 'Safe' behind a tariff wall, these firms are showing the expected reactions, ones that will make them internationally uncompetitive.Also rising were US retail sales in June. This also came after two retreating months, and was not expected. Year on year these sales are up +3.7% of which car sales rose +5.3%. Other than vehicles, the rise was +3.3% and still quite positive. However 2.7% of that can be accounted for by CPI inflation.US factory activity and retail sales may be rising but business inventories are not. And that is a resilient sign.One sector not showing any resilience is their house-building sector. The NAHB sentiment survey shows it remains at a low ebb, down near its 2022 lows. Affordability issues remain at the heart of the sector's woes, and they are hardly likely to improve as tariff-taxes flow through.In Canada, they have quietly conceded they have lost their dairy access dispute with New Zealand and will now honour the CPTPP treaty agreements. Although the US is not party to this dispute, the MFN clauses in its USMCA Agreement probably mean wider access for others to the Canadian dairy market.Across the Pacific and continuing its yoyo pattern, Singapore's June exports jumped. In fact they rose +14.3% from May to be +13% higher than year-ago levels.In Australia, their June labour market softened. They were expecting a jobs gain of +20,000 but only got +2,000. Their jobless rate ticked up to 4.3%. As a result, financial market pricing for an RBA rate cut on August 12 have risen.And inflation expectations in Australia are staying stubbornly high - although not as high in July as they were in June. The Melbourne Institute's Survey of Consumer Inflationary and Wage Expectations came in with inflation expectations at 4.7% which was down from June's 5.0% but apart from that still its highest since mid 2023. Expected wage growth fell slightly in July and remains relatively weak.A softening labour market but very high inflation expectations (and a frothy real estate market), will all make the RBA's assessments very difficult.More globally, container freight rates fell -2.6% last week from the prior week to be -55% lower than year-ago levels. But those year-ago levels were unusually boosted by Red Sea tensions. Currently, outbound rates from China are the weak spots in this market. Bulk cargo rates rose a sharp +34% last week to be back to year-ago levels. To be fair these current overall levels are basically 'average' over the past 35 years (so in inflation-adjusted terms they are very low).The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.47%, little-changed from yesterday at this time. Wall Street is firmer today with the S&P500 up +0.6%, enough to claim a new record high. Good corporate earnings are driving the mood.The price of gold will start today at US$3,336/oz, down -US$18 from yesterday at this time.American oil prices are up +US$1 at US$67.50/bbl while the international Brent price is now just under US$69.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.3 USc and down -25 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at 51.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.2, and unchanged.The bitcoin price starts today at US$119,100 and essentially unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest, at just on +/-1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US yield curve has steepened overnight on messy talk about the US Fed's independence, and arbitrary US tariff statements.In more direct economic news, US mortgage applications fell sharply last week, even after adjusting for the holiday weekend. There were -10% lower than the prior week. But they are still +18% higher than a year ago. To be fair, year-ago levels were unusually low. Rising interest rates are getting the blame for the recent fall-off in activityAmerican producer prices rose +2.3% in June which was much less than the May +2.7% rise and less than the expected +2.5%. A rather large and unusual monthly drop in logistics costs kept the overall index restrained.Meanwhile US industrial production inched higher, up +0.7% in June from a year ago. It was driven by a good rise in businesses equipment and mining but that masked a fall in the much larger sector manufacturing consumer goods. But to give better context, neither of those year-on-year gains showed up in June.And that flat recent trend is showing up in the Fed's July Beige Book surveys. Economic activity increased slightly from late May through early July. Five Districts reported slight or modest gains, five had flat activity, and the remaining two Districts noted modest declines in activity. There was nothing here indicating rising business or consumer sentiment and impending investment - pointedly, quite the opposite.Across the border, Canadian housing starts in June stayed high, and certainly higher than expected. They were expected to retreat somewhat after a strong May, but remained at those elevated levels.And staying in Canada, they have released data that shows the gap between the top earners and the bottom earners has reached a record divide. The bottom 40% of households now have less than 3% of all household wealth. The top 10% have almost half. It is a twist that foreshadows future social stresses.Later today we will get Japanese trade data for June, and that is expected to be positive.And as expected. the Indonesian central bank cut its policy rate late yesterday by-25 bps to 5.25%. They said the tariff-rate 'deal' with the US will be positive for them.Also later today we will be watching the June labour market report for Australia. Another good jobs gain is expected (+20,000), skewed sharply towards full-time positions. And we will get an update in Australian inflation expectations.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.46%, down -3 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3,354/oz, up +US$27 from yesterday at this time.American oil prices are little-changed at US$66.50/bbl while the international Brent price is still just over US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.5 USc and up +10 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -20 bps at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.2, and down -20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$119,039 and up +1.4% from this time yesterday. And that takes it back to NZ$200,000. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just on +/-1.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news US inflation is rising and tariffs are getting the blame.But first, the overnight dairy auction brought prices +1.1% higher in USD terms, +3.6% higher in NZD terms. It was the first rise we have had in these full auctions since yearly May. This time, the expected +2.5% rise in SMP was matched by an unexpected rise of +1.7% in WMP prices. Butter prices were unchanged but cheddar cheese prices fell a sharpish -5.6%.In the US they got the expected rise in CPI inflation for June, up 2.7% when it was rising 2.4% in May. The Fed will have noticed that "core inflation" rose 2.9%. Food prices rose 3.0% and rents up 3.8%. The overall level was restrained by an -8.3% drop in petrol prices. As those year-ago petrol prices normalise in future months, they won't be restraining anything. Just in time for the pass-through of the tariff-taxes. An independent Fed will be concerned about the upwad trajectory.A Fed factory survey in the New York state recorded a rise in July, their first since February. But they are seeing input cost pressure picking up. However they also report it is easier to pass on those costs and seemed relieved about that.Canada also reported its June CPI inflation rate, coming in at 1.9%, up from 1.7% in May.India reported declining merchandise exports in June, in fact their lowest level of the year and almost -8% lower than year-ago levels. Imports fell too. But strong services exports (outsourcing services) balanced things out. In contrast to China, India's rise is domestically-driven, not foreign trade driven, making them somewhat insulated from the tariff-wars.China reported that its Q2-2025 economy expanded +5.2% in inflation-adjusted terms from Q2-2024. This was bang on what Beijing had set as a target, and what observers were expecting them to announce. Strong exports and consumer subsidies helped a lot.China said its retail sales were up +4.8% in June from a year ago, its industrial production up +6.8%. So that suggests they had the best of both worlds - rising industry and rising internal consumption. That they seem to have done this all with only a modest rise in electricity production (+1.7%) would be impressive if it was believable. They are almost certainly making big strides in energy efficiency but it is unlikely as reported. Despite these cred issues however, it is clear that the Chinese economy is not going backward.But even if they aren't as steep as they have been over any of the past 15 months, new house prices in China are still falling. Only 12 of the 70 largest cities had prices that held basically unchanged however. But for resales, none were in that category. The lure of housing speculation in China is but a distant memory. For most developers that is trouble. But pockets like in Shenzhen may be seeing a bit of a shine.In the EU, industrial production surprised with a good +3.4% gain in May, far better than expected and continuing the 2025 expansion. The gains were even stronger in the euro areaSo it will be no surprise to learn that German ZEW sentiment seems to be in full recovery mode; this data for July, so those industrial production gains have likely continued.In Australia, the Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment survey showed a third consecutive rise in July, although a small one. Despite the surprise no-cut by the RBA recently, most consumers still expect interest rates to move lower from here. But they remain uncertain about the outlook for the overall economy and jobs. Housing-related sentiment dipped slightly but price expectations remained high.And staying in Australia, the RBA has reached the preliminary view that it would be in the public interest to remove surcharging on eftpos, Mastercard and Visa cards. They also want to lower the cap on interchange fees paid by businesses, and require card networks and large acquirers to publish the fees they charge. They are now in the 'consultation' phase, which will no doubt involve fierce pushback. Here the Commerce Commission has been looking at the same issues, and will report on the New Zealand changes they want to see, very soon.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.49%, up +6 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,327/oz, down -US$22 from yesterday at this time.American oil prices are down -50 USc to US$66.50/bbl while the international Brent price is just over US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.4 USc and down -30 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 51.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 67.4, and down -10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,421 and down -2.0% from this time yesterday. And that takes it back below NZ$200,000. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, still just on +/-1.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news there may be trade policy chaos, and it may get worse, but you wouldn't know it from today's data, especially June data from China.But first, India said its CPI inflation is falling, and quite quickly now, taken lower by falling food prices. Their CPI fell for the eighth straight month, down to 2.1% in June, the lowest level since January 2019, down from 2.8% in May. Analysts had expected it to fall to 2.5% in June, so this is quite a sharper move lower. You may recall the recent 7.4% peak in October 2024, then also driven by food prices.The question now is, will the RBI cut its 5.5% policy rate. Many analysts don't think the Indian central bank is ready yet to do that. They next meet on August 7.In Singapore they said their economy was 4.3% higher in Q2-2025 than Q2-2024. Their GDP rose +1.4% s.a. in the three months through June. Analysts had expected the rise to be only +0.8% increase. Construction helped drive the June result, surging 4.4%. The Q1-2025 contract was revised to -0.5%. Apart from that Q1-2025 stumble, their expansion has been rising since early 2023.In Japan, machinery orders didn't fall as much in May as anticipated (after a big dip in April), so they ended +6.6% higher than year ago levels.In China, so far, the Trump tariffs or the uncertainty surrounding them have had no noticeable negative impact on their exports. They came in at US$325 bln in June, up +5.8% from a year ago and up +$9 bln from May. This was better than expected. Imports were also little-changed, up +1.1% from a year ago, slightly softer than expected. The main impact of the US tariff war against everyone is that China is benefiting as the US makes enemies everywhere. The details by country are here.China's trade surplus widened significantly to +US$115 bln in June, up from +US$99 bln in June 2024. China's trade surplus with the US widened to US$26.5 bln in June, up +47% from May.Meanwhile, new yuan loans rose in June, and by more than expected. Typically, we see a June rise as banks push to achieve quarterly targets. But this rise is far better than even for that, and better than the rise a year ago. Helping was a Beijing push to front-load bond sales being rolled out to support their economy during the tariff trade war. In the end they issued ¥2.24 tln in new loans in June, well above the expected ¥1.8 tln. (This data never shows how much is directed to SOE borrowing.)We should not forget the impact of the consumer subsidies being deployed to keep China's retail demand elevated. They seem quite effective, but clearly they cannot continue indefinitely. Some regions are already starting to turn them off due to cost reasons, so we won't have long to find the reaction to that.In the US all eyes are on what the June CPI inflation will come in at. It was 2.4% in May, and is widely expected to come in at 2.7% in June when it is reported tomorrow. Markets price no chance of a rate cut by the Fed at their next review at the end of the month.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.43%, little-changed from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3,349/oz, down -US$6 from yesterday at this time.American oil prices are down -US$1.50 just on US$67/bbl while the international Brent price is just over US$69/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.7 USc and down -40 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 51.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.4, and down -20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$119,767 and up +0.8% from this time yesterday. And that takes it just on NZ$200,000. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news August 1 is the new deadline for tariff negotiations with the US. It's an endlessly moving 'deadline' bourne out of frustration at being unable to make any meaningful deals.This week will feature a first peek at June inflation components with the selected price data due out on Thursday. Maybe before that we will get the June REINZ data. In Australia, all eyes will be on their June labour market data due on Thursday too.Later today we will get China's June export and import data to be followed later in the week with China's big monthly data dump which will include their Q2-2025 GDP result. It will be a surprise if they have to admit a variance to their official target (5.2%?).In the US it will be all about tariff-setting, interspersed with June CPI data (also likely to match what their government wants - 2.5%). Canada will also release their June inflation result, with a more credible process, and markets expect (3.0%). Japan chimes in with its version, expected to be 3.3%.In the background there will be the start of Q2 earnings results from Wall Street majors, including some big banks.Over the weekend, Canada reported something of a surprise, because their labour market strengthened in June. Not only did they generate +83,000 new jobs in the month when no gains were expected, their jobless rate dipped when it was expected to rise. Even though +70,000 of those new jobs were part-time, the +13,000 new full-time jobs was much better than the -1,000 full-time job losses expected. Even wages rose +3.2% from a year ago, although they did slip slightly from May and have remained flat since January. Given the forces being applied by their bully neighbour, it is hard to know whether this overall June result is just an anomaly or an indication of resilience. Only time will tell.Canada also released May building consent data overnight and it was also unusually strong, up at a +12% pa rate from April. From a year ago the June consent values were up +5.1% on an inflation-adjusted basis. By any standard this is very good too.In the US, the level of tariff-taxes being imposed on Americans is becoming clearer. The latest US Government accounts show them hitting US$27 bln in June, US$113 bln for the nine months to June. Tariffs are paid by the importer and become a cost that will be embedded into how those products are sold. Treasury officials anticipate further growth in tariffs collected, expecting them to reach US$300 bln in the 2025 calendar year.Those added taxes allowed the US Federal Government to report a +US$27 bln surplus in June. In June 2024 they reported a -US$71 bln deficit. In the twelve months to June, they have accumulated a -US$1.9 tln deficit, more than the -US$1.8 tln in the 2024 fiscal year.The tariff boost for June got the benefit of some seasonal shifts, Treasury officials noted. Adjusting for those, June would have shown a -US$70 bln deficit instead of the +US$27 bln surplus actually reported, they said.The weekend brought new tariff threats to Mexico and the EU of 35%. They are moving to unilateral positions because they seem hopeless at negotiating, completely misunderstanding the process.Perhaps we should note that the US dollar has fallen -11% from the Trump II January inauguration to now. In the whole of the Trump I presidency it fell a net -10%. So the decline in the value of the greenback is just getting started this time, it seems. Holding American assets by foreigners is going to involve sinking currency pressures. And it will become much more costly for American investors to buy foreign assets for the same reason. With fiscal mismanagement rife, it is hard to see this 'improving' in the next few years.And some of that uncertainty is leaking into company balance sheets. Credit rating downgrades now exceed upgrade in the listed US corporate scene, the first time that has happened since 2021. Company cash balances are shrinking - not fast yet, but that is a turn. More companies are losing investment grade status. All this goes to the heart of company valuation levels. The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 22.3, far higher than historic benchmarks.And in Japan, we should keep an eye on parliamentary elections that will be held on Sunday, July 20 for their upper house. Given the the national government of conservative Shigeru Ishiba relies on a tenuous coalition with a small religious party, this has become a referendum on Ishiba's stewardship.And China announced a +2% increase in their national state pension starting January 2025. Because we are more than six months into this year, presumably back-pay will be involved. This year's increase, the 21st in a row, comes as studies project the system is on track to run out of money in about a decade. Until 2015, the annual increases were +10% but have shrunk away sharply since as the demographic forces have turned tougher. Their pension system is expected to run out of funds in about 10 years.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.42%, unchanged from Saturday, up +10 bps for the week.The price of gold will start today at US$3,355/oz, little-changed from Saturday, but up a net +US$18/oz from a week ago.American oil prices are still just over US$68.50/bbl while the international Brent price is just over US$70.50/bbl. That is up a net +US$2 in a week.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60.1 USc, unchanged from Saturday, but down -½c from this time last week. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 51.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still at just on 67.6, but down -30 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$118,763, a new record high and up +1.1% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news commodity currencies are in favour at the end of the week as global commodity prices get a halo boost from the taxes Americans are prepared to pay for commodities. Risk is in favour; 'greed is good' and blindness to the downside possibilities seems wilful. It helps that heavyweight investors have gone on their summer vacations.But first, US initial jobless claims came in at 240,800 last week, an increase and a bit more than seasonal factors would have expected. There are now 1.91 mln people on these benefits, +111,000 or +6.2% or more than at this time last year. That is their highest level since 2021.There was a smaller US Treasury 30yr bond auction earlier today and if it wasn't for the SOMA activity from the New York Fed, demand would have been lighter than at the prior event. In the end, it delivered a median yield of 4.84%, little-changed from the 4.80% at the prior equivalent event.In Japan, their June producer prices were up +2.9% from a year ago, a notable easing from the +4.3% rise in March. In fact, from May, Japanese producer prices slipped marginally. From early 2022, there has been an overall trend of these price increases easing and they may be now heading into a bit of a deflationary period.China's vehicle sales grew by almost +14% in June from the same month a year ago following an +11% rise in May. Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) surged more than +26% in June, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase. In the first half of 2025, total vehicle sales climbed +11%, while NEV sales jumped more than +40%. They are on target for NEV sales to exceed 16 mln units - which is more than all vehicle sales in the US. China is on track for sales of 33 mln for the full year, easily the world's largest vehicle market.The Korean central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% as expected. It last cut its rate in May.Australian business turnover data has revealed that May activity was softish, recording a small slip from April. May was held back by a fall in their mining sector. But from a year ago, May 2025 was overall +5.9% higher on a current price basis.Container freight rates fell -5% last week from the prior week, almost all on outbound cargoes from China. Overall rates are now half year-ago levels, although to be fair those year-ago levels were juiced up by the Red Sea crisis. Bulk cargo rates were little changed this week but are -25% lower than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.35%, and up +1 bp from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,317/oz, and up +US$9 from yesterday.American oil prices are down -US$2 at US$66.50/bbl while the international Brent price is now just over US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60.3 USc, up +25 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 51.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.7 and +20 bps firmer than yesterday at this time.The bitcoin price starts today at US$113,549, a record high and up +4.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/-2.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of more tariff threats, but markets are over that drama, shoving its impact to the background. If there is news on a US-EU deal, then that will likely change.First in the US, even though the benchmark 30 year home loan interest rate was little-changed, mortgage applications rose a sharpish +9.3% from the prior week, and that was a rise for a third week in a row, a relatively unusual streak. Both refinance and new home purchases had good gains this week.One reason they may be more active is that Americans are shunning international travel, kind of like in the pandemic emergency, perhaps fearful of the reception they will get in both Europe, South America and Asia. And the feeling is mutual. EU-US airfares are diving and services are being cut back. But Canada is now a hit, with other-than-the-US destinations much more popular, and Toronto especially is getting a surge. In the world of travel, the US is the only major market suffering declines in visitors.The US Federal reserve released the minutes of its June 19 (NZT) meeting. And that hinted at a developing divide among members between those who support the Trump view that the tariff-tax impact on inflation will be transitory, and those that think it will be 'persistent' and do long-term and lasting damage to American cost competitiveness. And that divergence affected their view of when to next cut rates. At this meeting at least those with the fear of embedded inflation won out and rates were left unchanged. But financial markets have priced in two more -25 bps rate cuts later this year.At least one of their number are in a broader Apprentice-style competition for Powell's job - Christopher Waller.There was another US Treasury bond auction overnight, for their 10 year maturity, and it was normally supported. It delivered an median yield of 4.31% compared to the 4.38% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.Across the Pacific, Japanese machine tool orders rose in June from May, maintaining their better level in a trend that started in March. And it was demand from domestic manufacturers that were especially strong. Even though in total they were just marginally less than a year ago, that year ago benchmark was unusually strong for a 2024 month.The heart of the northern hemisphere holiday season is underway and financial market activity is lighter than usual. This period will likely last until the end of August, culminating at the American Labor Day long weekend.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.34%, and down -8 bps from yesterday.And we should note that Nvidia has become the first company to command an equity valuation of US$4 tln.The price of gold will start today at US$3,308/oz, and up a mere +US$2 from yesterday.American oil prices are unchanged at US$68.50/bbl while the international Brent price is still just under US$70.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is still just on 60 USc, essentially unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 91.7 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 51.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.5 and -10 bps lower from yesterday at this time.The bitcoin price starts today at US$109,140 and virtually unchanged (+0.1%) from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news US tariff threats are shifting from being aimed at trading 'partners' to a focus on commodities, today especially copper. Protection of favoured US business interests is the goal, cloaked in the labels of 'national security'.But first up today, the overnight dairy Pulse auction delivered less change than expected, essentially holding on to the SMP and WMP prices at the prior week's full auction. But in the meantime the NZD has retreated so both delivered good gains in NZD, up +1.1% for SMP and up +3.1% for WMP.The US retail impulse as measured by the Redbook survey delivered a very good +5.9% gain over the same week a year ago, but it should be noted that earlier base week was an unusual down one.And the New York Fed's national survey of consumer inflation expectations returned to a 'normal' 3% in June, and a five month low. But some components remain a worry. Those surveyed thing food prices will rise 5.5%, rents will rise +9.1% and medical care by +9.3%Meanwhile the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June was little changed at it long run levelThe popular US Treasury three year bond auction delivered unchanged demand and little-change on the median yields achieved. Today that came in at 3.84%, whereas the equivalent event a month ago was at 3.92%.US consumer debt grew a very modest +US$5 bln in May, half the expansion in April and well below the average for the past year. The slowdown was very acute for revolving debt, like credit cards.In Canada, the widely-watched local PMI turned positive in June following two toughish months.In Germany, both exports and imports were expected to decline in May from April, and they did, but by slightly more than was expected. But both remain higher than year ago levels.In Australia, the widely watched NAB business sentiment survey picked up and that was a much better outcome than the contraction expected. In fact this June result for business conditions broke the mould of the long-running decline that started in June 2022.That survey didn't point to anything special in terms of cost pressures. But those cost pressures clearly worried the RBA when it surprised financial markets with its no-change decision yesterday. The widely-expected rate cut didn't happen and so household budgets will have to wait for more relief. The RBA did pick up the resilience in the overall economy, but judged it too early to respond to perceptions of economic weaknesses. In fact they saw the balance of risks from trade and labour market cost activity not requiring a boost from a cut in interest rates.We should note that US tariff uncertainty is screwing around with some key commodity prices, especially copper, which has soared over the past day or so to over US$12,000/tonne and easily a new record high. Some US futures contracts are now up over US$13,000/tonne. US products that use copper are going to get a cost jolt. Because it is a jolt directly related to a new US tariff-tax, it won't affect products made outside the US.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.42%, and up another +3 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,306/oz, and down -US$25 from yesterday.American oil prices are up another +US$1 at just under US$68.50/bbl while the international Brent price is now just under US$70.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60 USc, little-changed from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -50 bps at 91.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 51.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.6 and -10 bps lower from yesterday at this time.The bitcoin price starts today at US$109,015 and up +1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/-2.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news financial markets have turned cautious, unsure of what to make of the set of 'tariff letters'.In Washington, because they couldn't complete tariff deals in the "90 deals in 90 days" to July 9, they have moved the 'deadline' to August 1. The shambles extends. And the capricious tariff letters are starting to be issued, first to Japan and South Korea at 25%, and then a bunch of developing countries including Malaysia (25%) and South Africa (30%).Essentially, the US is pushing countries into China's orbit, and creating conditions where many will shy away from buying US goods due to the bald insult. US businesses are likely to suffer, not only from financial market reactions, but also on the demand front. Other governments' trust in the US is in free-fall.Separately, we can also report that the NY Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure index was neutral in June, back to its long run 'normal level'. That amounts to an easing of the May pressure as the rush to beat the tariff-taxes faded.Across the Pacific, China said its foreign exchange reserves rose by +US$32 bln to US$3.317 tln in June and that is the highest level they have had in nearly ten years (December 2015).Singapore's foreign exchange reserves stayed very high in June, even if they did dip marginally from their record high level in May.In the EU, they report retail sales by volume (inflation adjusted) and it slipped in May from April. But it stayed higher than year-ago levels although by less than +1%.Meanwhile, Germany reported its May industrial production turned up and by much more than expected. Although to be fair, it is in a bit of an overall yoyo pattern. Still, on a volume basis it too is +1.0% higher than year ago levels.So overall, even though some of it is over a month old, this set of second tier data, from the US, to Asia, to Europe isn't painting a picture of special stress.How the Australian central bank see it will be revealed later today when the RBA issues its decision on its cash rate target. Market pricing has only two-thirds of a -25 bps cut priced in although most economists think it will happen, and take their policy rate down from 3.85% to 3.60%. That will flow through to homeowner's household budgets quickly because most have variable rate deals.However it its far from certain this will give the Aussie domestic economy the boost a rate cut should deliver. It almost certainly will juice up house prices, which are already rising in anticipation. But existing borrowers seem to have decided en masse that the cash gains from lower rates will be used to pay down debt rather than be spent in generating more economic activity, which is why the RBA is cutting. To get that effect, the central bank may have to cut again later in the year. There are reviews in August, September, November and December yet to come, so plenty of opportunities for more cuts.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.39%, and up +6 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,332/oz, and down -US$4 from yesterday.American oil prices are up +US$1 at just under US$67.50/bbl while the international Brent price is now just over US$69/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60 USc, down an outsized -60 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 92.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 51.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 67.7 and -30 bps lower from yesterday at this time.The bitcoin price starts today at US$107,923 and down -0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained low at just on +/-0.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world is working out how live with a capricious America.First though, the week ahead will feature Wednesday afternoon's OCR review from the RBNZ, preceded Tuesday by the RBA's cash rate review. The Aussies are expected to cut their rate by -25 bps to 3.60% but the RBNZ is expected to hold at 3.25%. We will be covering the outcomes and implications of both reviews.Both Malaysia and South Korea will also be reviewing their official rates. The Malaysian will likely leave their rate unchanged at 3.00%, and the South Koreans are expected to cut theirs by -25 bps to 2.25%.In the US, apparently negotiating trade deals is complicated (who knew?) so Trump is dispensing with all that and just "sending letters" unilaterally. "90 deals in 90 days" is too hard for him. He might have got one over the line with Vietnam (he claims but the Vietnamese haven't confirmed). He sort of got one with the UK but before the 90 day clock started. And the China one he claims leaves the US in a worse position. His Treasury Secretary is promising "a few more" over the next few days and weeks. "Best deal maker of all time".And we should probably note that the integrity of official US data, from the Census Bureau, the BLS and the BEA, all now under Trump control (in the Lutnick Commerce Department), is getting increasingly questioned. Sharp budget cutbacks is resulting in fewer actual surveys, more 'estimates by officials'. Even Fed boss Powell expressed concern over the issue in questioning at the recent Congressional testimony. The data reporters are moving to a "Make Trump Look Good" approach.Suspicion is rising because there are widespread indications tariff-tax price increases are being pushed through but the BLS data isn't reflecting that.In China we will get CPI and PPI updates for June later this week. It would be supremely ironic if users came to view Chinese economic data was more trustworthy than American. It no longer seems far-fetched.Across the Pacific in Japan, household spending jumped +4.7% in May from a year ago, reversing a -0.1% fall in April and far exceeding an expected +1.2% rise. It was their fastest growth since August 2022, and that August 2022 was only good because it was off the very weak pandemic-affected base a year earlier.Singaporean retail sales rose by +1.4% in May from a year ago, accelerating from a downwardly revised +0.2% rise in April. This was the third straight month of growth and the fastest annual increase since January. But to be fair, most of the increase was driven by car sales, a very expensive and exclusive corner of their retail sector.Next, halfway around the world, EU producer prices eased again in May so that it is only +0.4% higher than year ago levels, less in the euro area. The past three months have delivered producer prices lower than in each of the prior months.German factory orders dropped by -1.4% in May from April and that was weaker than expected, but the April gain was revised higher. The May weakness however came after some very large-scale computer, electronic and optical orders in April. From a year ago, these factory orders were up +5.3%.And we should probably note that EU house prices are rising, up +5.7% from a year ago led by 10%-plus gains in Portugal (+16%), Bulgaria (+15%), Croatia (+13%), Slovakia (+12%), Hungary (+12%), and Spain (+12%).In Australia, household spending rose in May and by more than expected with a good recovery from a weak month in April. This spending was up +4.2% from May a year ago. It was their best gain in 7 months.The FAO food price index was little-changed in June from May, holding its gains from a year ago. Within that, both meat and dairy prices rose.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.33%, and unchanged from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,336/oz, and unchanged from Saturday.American oil prices are unchanged at just under US$66.50/bbl while the international Brent price is also little-changed at just under US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60.6 USc, unchanged from Saturday. For the week it is up +20 bps. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 92.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 51.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 68 and up +10 bps from yesterday, and unchanged for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,921 and up +1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US budget bill has now been approved by Congress setting up a big shift in fortunes for big business at the expense of those on low incomes - and handing their future generations a substantially larger deficit headache. In fact, one so large, it will impact the global economy.In the US, they are about to have another national public holiday, Independence Day, so there has been an early data dump there in advance.US non-farm payrolls expanded +147,000 in June, very similar to the May expansion and better than the expected +110,000. The variance from yesterday's ADP Employment Report will raise a few questions. Average weekly earnings went down in June from May, but were up +3.4% from a year ago. In May that annual gain was +3.8% so this metric is tightening. Month on month decreases have happened before but they are relatively infrequent and usually indicate overtime earnings are drying up.US initial jobless claims came in a 231,500 has week and similar to what was expected, taking the continuing claims level to 1.91 mln, +90,000 higher than year ago levels.These two labour market reports probably take pressure off the Fed to cut their policy rate at their next review at the very end of this month.US exports fell -4.0% in May whereas imports dipped a minor -0.1%. That saw their trade deficit rise from the prior month but stay considerably lower than the same month a year ago.US services exports dipped in the month. But locally the June ISM service sector PMI improved from its tiny May decline to a small June expansion. The S&P Global/Markit services PMI told a similar story. But both noted the rising cost worries.May American factory order levels were up sharply in May from April, to be +3.2% higher than year-ago levels. But aircraft orders drove the rise and without that the year-on-year gain was just +0.2% and far less than can be accounted for by inflation. Even the month-on-month gain without aircraft wasn't significant, but at least it was a gain.And Trump's boast he will do "90 deals in 90 days" resulting from his tariff pressure looks like it will fall completely flat. The US has announced one, with Vietnam, but the Vietnamese will only say they are still working through the details. The talks on all the others are dragging on inconclusively.In Canada, their export and import data for May was little-changed overall. But in fact that hides some pretty significant shifts. Their trade with the US fell a lot, and they how have the smallest share going to the US since 1997, twenty eight years ago. In short order, Canadians have managed to reorient their trade to others successfully.Across the Pacific, analysts had expected the Caixin services PMI for China to maintain its small but steady expansion. But it weakened. Not a lot, and it is still expanding, but it will be disconcerting all the same. And it is now at a nine month low.Surprising analysts who expected a +AU$5 bln monthly trade surplus, the actual Australian trade surplus for May came in at half that level, to its lowest level in five years. May exports fell faster, down -2.7% from April while May imports rose faster, up +3.8% from April. Interestingly, exports of gold are down -3.4% in May from a year ago - and that is in AU$ terms, not volume.Container freight rates fell -5.7% last week from the prior week to be -45% lower than year ago levels. Trans-Pacific rates fell -15% as the trade war crimps these supply chains. Bulk freight rates fell -13% in the past week and are now -33% lower than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.34%, and up +5 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,326/oz, and down -US$20 from yesterday.American oil prices are little-changed at just under US$67/bbl while the international Brent price is down -50 USc at just over US$68.50/bbl. Last week's North American rig counts took an unusually sharp dip. There is certainly no evidence yet that investors are piling in to drill more aggressively.The Kiwi dollar is now just under 60.7 USc, down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 92.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 68 and down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$109,173 and up +0.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/-0.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the financial markets are awaiting the reconciliation of the US budget bill between the Senate and House versions. And they are waiting for news of "the countries lining up to make a [tariff] deal". There only seems to be one, Vietnam, and the details of that 'deal' remain murky.Meanwhile, American home loan interest rates fell last week to a three month low and that brought a surge in refinancing, although applications for a new mortgage were basically unchanged at a low level. That resulted in the total volume of mortgage applications rising by +2.7% last week from the prior week.Monitored job cuts in June shows it a relatively quiet month with 47,000 layoffs recorded. So far in 2025, the retail sector has cut the most private-sector jobs this year with 80,000 lost, hit by tariffs, inflation, and uncertainty. The expected DOGE cuts aren't as prominent yet due to the ongoing legal action uncertainty.But in contract, the US ADP Employment Report recorded a shrinkage in private payrolls in June by -33,000 when a +95,000 gain was expected. That's a big miss. This is a precursor for tomorrow's non-farm payrolls report for June which is expected to show a low +110,000 jobs gain. And while the ADP Report has a spotty track record matching the official data, you would have to suspect there are downside risks to the non-farm payroll estimates.Whatever the actual data shows, it seems pretty clear the stuffing is being knocked out of the once-strong engine of the US economy. 2025 is shaping up to be their weakest jobs growth since at least 2015 (pandemic excepted).US vehicle sales are also easing, down to a 15.3 mln annual rate and well below the March rate of 17.8 mln. The pre-tariff surge has created a shadow. But few analysts think it will rise much, mainly because of the tariff taxes.We don't have the equivalent China vehicle sales data yet but it will be very much higher (32.7 mln in the year to May), However they have their own problems of very rapid innovation and obsolescence, and worrying viability of large parts of their industry. Xiaomi's sudden entry into this sector is causing an existential shock for its rivals.Singapore's manufacturing PMI inched up out of contraction in June from May, snapping a two-month retreat as firms likely front-loaded orders ahead of looming American tariff deadlines. The recovery was primarily driven by faster expansion in new orders, new exports, and input purchases.In Australia, retail sales rose marginally in May to be +3.3% higher than year-ago levels. For context, Australian CPI was up +2.4% in the year to March, up +2.1% in their monthly inflation indicator for the year to May. So they have been getting 'real' volume increases although that may have faded recently. And this recent fade may bolster the case for a July 8 RBA rate cut.Meanwhile Australian building consents stopped falling in May as they had done in April, and are now +6.5% higher than May 2024. Multi-unit buildings are back driving the increase. The RBA's May 21 rate cut is getting the credit.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.29%, and up +4 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,347/oz, and up +US$10 from yesterday.American oil prices are much firmer from yesterday, up +US$1.50 at just over US$67/bbl while the international Brent price is up the same at just under US$69/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60.8 USc, down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 92.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down the same at 51.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68.1 and also down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$109,025 and up +2.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/-1.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US Senate has agreed the Trump budget, but only after the Vice President broke a deadlock with a casting vote. Financial markets are wondering about the wisdom in all this with equities hesitating, bond yields turning up, and the USD drifting lower. To be fair, none of these movements are large today. But the implications of massively higher US debt levels are as is the opening of the magic-money accounting they have adopted. It will be the bond market that makes the practical judgement.First however, the overnight dairy auction came in as weak as the futures market suggested it might. The SMP price fell -1.7%, but only to match the prior week's Pulse event. However the more important WMP price fell -5.1% and back to levels last seen at the beginning of the year. One local reason may have been the sharp increase in volumes offered, +10,000 tonnes more than at the prior event two weeks ago, and +6.7% more than the event in the same week a year ago. This volume offer jump came as milk production rose in all key producing regions (except Australia).Overall, prices were down -4.1% in USD terms at this even, down -5.2% in NZD as the greenback weakens further.The price downshift will have analysts reaching for their pencils although it might be too soon for them to backtrack on their 2025/26 payout forecasts. Fonterra's current season results are pretty much locked in and will be reported in late September. But their new year may be off to a soft start.Last week, the US Redbook index was +4.9% higher than year ago levels but still in the easing trend that started in early April.The May level of job openings rose unexpectedly to more than 7.7 mln largely on a surge for foodservice jobs. Analysts didn't see this coming but perhaps they should have given the sharp ICE immigration crackdowns underway. These roles at these volumes will be hard to fill.The latest factory PMI report from the ISM shows a sector still in contraction, being led by weak new order inflows. The internationally benchmarked S&P Global/Markit version reported an expansion and a moderate one at that, But both noted rising inflation pressures.It appears that the expected rise in June car sales didn't occur, dipping to its slowest pace of the year.Apparently its a good time to be in the logistics sector in the US with inventory levels rising and supply chains being stressed. The Logistics Managers Index is running at an unusually high level.The Dallas Fed regional services survey reported a continuing contraction, although not as steep in June as May.And the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index was expected to bounce back in July but in fact it resumed the decline in a trend that started in December 2024.After falling to a recent low in April, Japanese consumer sentiment is on the rise again, back to where it was at the start of the year, but not yet back to 2024 levels. But at least it is rising.Yesterday we noted that the official factory PMI for China "improved" but was still showing a contraction. Today, the alternative Caixin factory PMI came in a little better than that, rising from May's tiney contraction to June's small expansion. These shifts don't mean a lot, but at least they are going in an improved direction. The Caixin survey noted "Higher new order inflows supported a renewed rise in production. That said, the rate at which new orders expanded was only marginal amid subdued exports." Trump's trade war may have kneecapped Chinese growth but it hasn't knocked them over.Overnight the ECB released the results of its May survey of consumer inflation expectations and they dipped to 2.8% when a small rise was expected. Consumers apparently thought inflation was running at 3.1% over the past 12 months. Separately the EU released its June CPI data and that shows it running at 2.0%, up from 1.9% in May.In Australia, large parts of the east cost is hunkering down for a lashing of strong winds and heavy rain. And that will include Sydney.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, and up +2 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,337/oz, and up +US$45 from yesterday.American oil prices are marginally firmer from yesterday, up +50 USc at just on US$65.50/bbl while the international Brent price is up the same at just over US$67/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60.9 USc, unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 92.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down the same at 51.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68.2 and unchanged from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$106,292 and down -1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has stayed low at just over +/-0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

While Obi-Wan Kenobi desperately pursues General Grievous, Captain Rex recovers from an injury and discovers a deserter from the clone army in this episode of The Clone Wars.   In this fully armed and operational episode of Podcast Stardust, we discuss: Obi-Wan Kenobi's desperate pursuit of General Grievous, Suu, the Twi'lek wife to the deserter clone, Cut Lawquane, the clone that deserted from the Grand Army of the Republic to pursue a life his own choosing, Captain Rex's perception of Cut and their discussions, The attack of the Commando Droids, and  The legacy of this episode of The Clone Wars. For more discussion of The Clone Wars, check out episode 903.   Thanks for joining us for another episode! Subscribe to Podcast Stardust for all your Star Wars news, reviews, and discussion wherever you get your podcasts. And please leave us a five star review on Apple Podcasts.   Find Jay and her cosplay adventures on J.Snips Cosplay on Instagram.   Join us for real time discussion on the RetroZap Discord Server here: RetroZap Discord. Follow us on social media: Twitter | Facebook | Instagram | Pinterest | YouTube. T-shirts, hoodies, stickers, masks, and posters are available on TeePublic. Find all episodes on RetroZap.com.

Republic Day Greetings Glocal Citizens! This week's guest is another Glocal Citizens connection. In spring 2024, Amma Gyampo (https://glocalcitizens.fireside.fm/guests/amma-gyampo) reached out to me me about connecting me with a like mind in education. That was the beginning of ongoing conversations with Laureen “Laury” Adams. With over 20 years of experience spanning both international and U.S. contexts as a classroom teacher, school leader, coach, designer, and professor, Dr. Laury possesses a unique skill set. This includes shaping innovative curricula, effectively supporting learning communities of all sizes, and coaching leaders to drive impactful change. Her design background informs her expertise in project-based learning approaches, performance assessment, and liberatory praxis. She collaborates with schools and education organizations to design critical, responsive, and loving curricula, assessments, and professional learning opportunities. Laureen is the founder and Executive Director of the Tutu Institute of Education for Liberation. As well as Senior Director of Professional Learning at ASCD Ghana (https://ghascd.org). Among her other roles on boards and consulting she is a Research Fellow and Adjunct Professor at Claremont Graduate University. She recently co-authored This Teachable Moment: Engaging Our Kids in the Joy of Learning (https://www.pblworks.org/for-families) to support parents and caregivers with providing project-based learning experiences at home. Download your free copy and #listenandlearn more about Laury's work in session at SXSW EDU 2025 (https://schedule.sxswedu.com/2025/speakers/286691). Today, July 1st, Ghana marks its 65th Republic Day (https://nationaltoday.com/ghana-republic-day/). Our conversation speaks to many of the themes we continue to work to realize as the country sheds its colonial character as a sovereign, free republic with Ghanaians leading and steering our social and economic destiny. Where to find Laury? https://www.liberatorylove.com/ On LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/in/laureen-adams-tutu-phd/) On Instagram (https://www.instagram.com/laureenadamsphd/) On Facebook (https://web.facebook.com/laureenadamsphd) What's Laury reading? One Day, Everyone Will Have Been Against This (https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/777485/one-day-everyone-will-have-always-been-against-this-by-omar-el-akkad/) by Omar El Akkad Finding Your Leadership Soul (https://www.ascd.org/books/finding-your-leadership-soul?variant=123025) by Carlos R. Moreno What's Laury watching? Forever, a new series (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forever_(2025_TV_series)) Other topics of interest: About Long Beach, California (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Beach,_California) NYC Teaching Fellows Program (https://nycteachingfellows.org) Envsion Academy Charter School (https://envisionschools.org/our-schools/envision-academy/#:~:text=Envision%20Academy%20of%20Arts%20and,in%20college%20and%20in%20life.) Teach for America (https://www.teachforamerica.org) Sponsors for Educational Opportunities (https://www.seo-usa.org) 'Love” in Twi (https://learnakandictionary.com/english-twi/love/) Special Guest: Laureen Adams.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US budget debate has financial markets on edge.But first up today, the Chicago PMI did not report the expected modest bounceback in June from the very weak May result. In fact is stayed in a severe contraction, disappointing everyone involved. It's been nearly three years since they have had any regular expansion and 2025 looks like it is shaping up the be the worst of the three.The Dallas Fed's factory survey for June was weak as well featuring shrinking new order levels. At least it was little-changed from May.As you read this, the US Senate is debating, and about to vote, on the big Trump budget bill. After years of complaining about US deficit spending and refusing to move the debt ceiling law, they are weighing whether to accede to Trump's demand to give him a free pass on both, including 'hiding' US$3.8 tln of tax cut costs. If they pass the budget, it is likely the bond market will deliver a thumbs down response, one that will affect global financial markets.On the US tariff trade bullying, there are few negotiations going well at present, for any of the parties involved.In Canada, they seem to have conceded the digital services tax issue to try and make progress on bigger issues. But the DST is still a live issue in the UK-US talks.Meanwhile, things are softening in India too. Their industrial production was up +1.2% in May from the same month in 2024, their weakest expansion in nine months and well weaker than expected.In China, there were no surprises and little movement in their official PMIs for June. Their factory sector contracted very marginally - again - and the services sector expanded marginally, also again. Basically they describe an economy marking time. But also one resilient to the trade shocks thrown at it which were designed to throw it off balance. That just hasn't happened, yet anyway.German inflation came in at 2.0% in June, a touch less than anticipated and little-different from April and May's 2.1% level. As small as it was, they weren't expecting a dip. Food prices there rose a modest +2.0% but keeping a lid on other rises was the -3.5% drop in energy prices.In Australia, Cotality/CoreLogic said its Home Value Index rose +0.6% in June from May, up marginally from the prior month but it is the strongest monthly gain since June 2024. Improved market sentiment in most major cities was behind the firming and active first home buyers are behind that. On a yearly basis, national home values climbed 2.7%. Meanwhile, rental growth continued to ease, with national rents up +3.4% over the past 12 months, the slowest annual increase since early 2021.Global air cargo demand rose +2.2% in May from a year ago, up +3.0% for international airfreight. The Asia/Pacific volumes were up a very healthy +8.2% on the same basis, no doubt related to the rush to beat US tariff deadlines. These overall volumes would have been better if the North American components hadn't been so weak (+-5.8%).Meanwhile, May air passenger travel rose +5.0%, up +6.7% for international travel and up +13.3% in the Asia/Pacific region. The only region to decline was North America (-0.5%) and mostly because of weak domestic travel.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.23%, and down -4 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,2952/oz, and up +US$19 from yesterday.American oil prices are marginally softer from yesterday at just under US$65/bbl while the international Brent price is down -US$1, now just over US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60.9 USc, up +30 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 51.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68.2 and +10 bps firmer than yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$107,683 and up +0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has stayed low at just on +/-0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are now halfway through 2025, closer to the next summer holiday break than the last one. We may need it more this time because economic 'progress' is hard to find.Looking ahead this week, the big end of month data dumps for May from the RBNZ will give us an updated look at mortgage and term deposit activity. The ANZ will also update us on their business sentiment survey for June. Then later in the week the June updates from the real estate industry will be released.In Australia it will also be about retail and trade updates for May.The week end with the US on another summer holiday break, this one for their Independence Day. Their June labour market report will come a day earlier this week (another low +129,000 is expected), preceded by PMI updates from all over. Markets also expect the US to announce tariff actions after the so-called 90 day pause. But Trump deadlines mean little in war and other diplomatic areas so don't be surprised if they mean little here too. He will go head if they don't hurt his own businesses, pull back if they do.Of more importance to us will be the results of both Chinese and Japanese data and surveys.In China, deflationary pressures not helped by the tariff war are keeping China's industrial profits in a low zone. They barely hit ¥600 bln in May and that was their lowest level for a May month since 2019 and -9.1% lower than May 2024. For the five months they were down -1.1% so the pace of decline is unfortunately building.Across the Pacific in the US, the squeeze on American household incomes shows up in the latest data for personal incomes and spending, this data for May. Incomes were only +1.7% higher than a year ago. Decreases in income support for struggling households is showing up in this data. And after inflation, they will be going backwards on the income front. On the consumption front, spending was up +2.2% from a year ago, also lower than the May 2.4% CPI inflation.This is a sure sign of rising economic stress that is spreading.The final reading of the University of Michigan survey of June consumer sentiment was out overnight and it confirmed the spreading household stress. This survey has been stuck at one of its worst readings on record for two months after plunging almost -30% in the first four months of 2025. Over the 80 years of the survey, a drop this large this fast has almost always predicted a recession. Sentiment readings improved slightly at the start of June but were -18% lower than at the start of the year to indicate Americans expect much higher prices and a much slower economy in the coming year. It should be no surprise this is the outcome of the changed US public policy direction - but the financial markets are ignoring this signal; willfully it seems.They seem to be overlooking these same survey results that show sentiment has fallen fastest this year for the most well-off consumers, whose post-pandemic spending spree helped insulate the American economy from recession then. They aren't there to do it this time, according to the UofM survey data.In Canada, they got weekend news that Trump is going to use tariffs to punish them for trying to tax US Big Tech companies via its Digital Services Tax initiative. The US wants free access to Canada and tax-free. Earlier the Canadians had confirmed the DST, which had been passed by their Parliament, would go into effect on June 30.Separately, Canada has ordered one of the world's largest video surveillance equipment manufacturers, State-owned Hikvision, to cease operations there on national security grounds. The order bars Hikvision from conducting business in Canada and prohibits government departments and agencies from purchasing its products. Existing installations of Hikvision equipment across government properties are under review to ensure their eventual removal. Hikvision cameras and monitoring systems are widely available in Australia and New Zealand.Economic sabotage may be spreading, but so are climate risks. It is early in the northern hemisphere summer season still, but both the US and Europe are struggling with dangerous heat dome conditions. China is not immune. These are sure to have economic implications if they extend through to September as expected.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.27%, and unchanged from Saturday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,273/oz, and little-changed from Saturday. A week ago it was at US$3365/oz so a -2.8% fall from then.American oil prices are +50c softer from Saturday at just on US$65/bbl while the international Brent price is now just on US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60.6 USc, up +20 bps from Saturday. A week ago it was at 59.7 USc so a net +1.5% appreciation. Against the Aussie we are -10 bps softer at 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68.1 and +10 bps firmer than Saturday. A week ago it was at 67.7 so a net +40 bps gain.The bitcoin price starts today at US$107,509 and up +0.6% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has stayed low at just on +/-0.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news its all about the US and the sharp weakening of the greenback. It is now at its lowest level since early 2022. And a key part of the reason is worries about the Trump attack on the Fed's independence.Meanwhile, US initial jobless claims have stayed elevated although they fell from the prior week to +227,000 which is marginally above the same week a year ago. There are now 1.87 mln people on these benefits, +124,000 more than the 1.75 mln a year ago.US Q1-2025 PCE inflation was revised higher overnight to 3.7% in updated data - and that is up from 2.4% on Q4-2025. Early impacts of tariff-taxes are starting to show through here. Real consumer spending was revised down to just +0.5% growth from the initial estimate of +1.2% and well below the Q4-2024 rise of +4.0%. These revisions don't paint a very good picture about how American consumers fared in early 2025. Final GDP 'growth' fell -0.5% in the quarter, the first decline in three years.But there was a good rise in durable goods orders in May, up +17.5% from the same month a year ago. But non-defense capital goods orders rose only +2.4% suggesting board rooms remain hesitant, and see the tariff-related order rush as nothing more than temporary.Certainly the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index doesn't point to any upturn. Nor does the latest regional Fed survey, this one from the Kansas City Fed.The May US trade balance wasn't great either, coming in with a worse deficit than expected at -US$93.7 bln with exports dipping and imports rising from April. From a year ago the result was little-different.Globally, policy imbalances cause distortions as you would expect, and in the short term at least, they can juice up trade activity despite their intentions.Elsewhere in Singapore, industrial production slipped in May to be 'only' +3.9% higher than year-ago levels. In April the gain was +5.6% so a clear easing, even if it wasn't as much as was anticipated.More generally, we will need to be careful talking about commodity prices when the US dollar is on a downslide. Almost everything is quoted in USD so rising prices now largely reflect that depreciation.Freight rates are falling after the relatively brief 'Iran crisis' hot war. And they too are quoted in USD so the falls will be magnified in other currencies. Container freight rates were down -9% last week from the week before to be -38% lower than year-ago levels - but a year-ago they were in their own Suez crisis stress. Bulk cargo rates are falling too.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, and down -4 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,334/oz, and up +US$12 from yesterday.American oil prices are unchanged from yesterday at just on US$65.50/bbl while the international Brent price is still just on US$68/bbl. Meanwhile Shell confirmed it isn't currently bidding for the underperforming BP, and that it is required to wait six month under UK law to take another look.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60.7 USc, up +40 bps from yesterday and that's an eight-month high. However, against the Aussie we are -20 bps softer at 92.5 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68.1 and +10 bps firmer than yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$107,338 and up +0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news tariff-tax cost threats to inflation are being joined by seasonal climate threats in the US.First, it is hot in large parts of the US, including the heavily populated North-East. Air-conditioners are working overtime. And that means electricity grids are overloaded. Retail electricity prices have spiked to nearly US$2,400/MWhr (NZ$4000/MWhr) during peak evening demand last night. Wholesale prices on Long Island topped US$7,000/MWh. Just for context, New Zealand prices this morning are about $60/MWhr. It's a crisis here they reach NZ$1000/MWhr.Meanwhile, US mortgage applications rose last week slightly from the week before, but only because refinance activity rose. Applications to buy a new home were down sharply from the prior week although up from the same week a year ago. Interest rates were little changed.But May sales of new single-family homes dropped sharply by almost -14% from the prior month to an annualised rate of 623,000 units and far below the expected 700,000 units rate and the sharpest decline since mid 2022. May 2025 was -6.3% below year ago levels. Getting the blame was uncertain economic conditions that is causing potential buyers to wait before committing to a purchase. And things could get worse - there are now 10 month's supply of built but unsold homes at the current sales rate. We may start to see some aggressive discounting ahead - or more builders going bust.The big US Treasury 5yr bond tender earlier today was well supported even if not quite at the level of the last event. This event delivered a median yield of 3.82%, a bit less than the 4.01% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.And in Senate testimony, Fed boss Powell acknowledged that tariff-taxes could be a one-off threat to inflation, but he said that is not a law of nature, and they are worried they could also drive persistent rises in costs. He said they will stay on guard until they know the actual effect.In China, their central bank injected ¥300 bln into financial institutions through a one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) into the country's banking system. This is what was expected.And in a first, President Xi will not attend the Brazilian-hosted BRICS meeting this year, the first time he has skipped that. The reasons why aren't clear, and that is fueling speculation.In Australia, their monthly inflation indicator fell to 2.1% in May, down from 2.4% in both March and April. That is a seven month low, and lower than the 2.3% rate expected. The main influence for the reduction were fruit & vegetable prices (from +6.1% to +2.8%), and travel & accommodation (from +5.3% to +0.6%).The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.29%, and down -1 bp from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,322/oz, and up an insignificant US$2 from yesterday.American oil prices are up +US$1 from yesterday at just on US$65.50/bbl while the international Brent price is now just over US$68/bbl.And we should probably note that the Wall Street Journal is reporting that Dutch oil company Shell is in talks to buy British rival BP. Currently, Shell is denying the report.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60.3 USc, up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are +10 bps firmer at 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68 and +10 bps firmer than yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$107,062 and up +0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US dollar is falling, and the benchmark US 10 year treasury yield is down also, near a seven week low. These are the key reactions to the easing of Middle East hostilities.But first up today, we should note that the weekly Pulse dairy auction for the two main powder products brought lower prices yer again. The SMP price fell -2.6% from last week's full auction to US$2704/tonne, which the WMP price fell -1.9% tp US$4006/tonne. The represent yet another retreat which essentially cancel the April to May price gains.In the US, Fed boss Powell was at Congress today giving his semiannual Monetary Policy Report. He is back again tomorrow. He repeated that they are in no rush to cut rates, certainly not in July, and that their scenario of two more -25 bps reductions in 2025 remains their current outlook. Their focus is on inflation risks which they still have worries about, not economic growth, and that is helped by a stable labour market.Meanwhile, the weekly Redbook survey of the US retail impulse showed sales volume growth easing lower, the lowest since the April tariff-tax induced price spike in early April. And if you exclude the seasonal dips at the end of 2024/25, this growth is the lowest since March 2024 even with the tariff-tax push effect on retail pricing.The US Conference Board's survey of consumer sentiment weakened in June. And this time the weakness spread to 'present conditions'. They report consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months, and optimism about future income prospects eroded. It is a trend they have been noting since the start of 2025.Also fading was the Richmond Fed's latest factory survey for June. Although new order intakes declined more slowly, it still declined and the order backlogs in the region are now falling faster. Unless they get an improvement in new orders, production cutbacks are looking. And the service sector survey in the same mid-Atlantic states region is no better. In this district too, reshoring is not in evidence.We should also note that credit stress for US commercial real estate is staying unusually high. This extended trouble will force an increasing number of lenders there to book losses, and because the worst losses are coming from the largest buildings, it could be destabilising for some mid-sized banks. There was a large well supported US Treasury bond auction earlier today for their 2 year Note. This delivered a median yield of 3.73%, down from the 3.90% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In Canada, their May inflation rate was reported overnight, unchanged at 1.7%, which was the expected result.Taiwanese retail sales were weaker in May, down -1.6% from the same month a year ago and extending a weaker trend. They were expected to rise marginally. However Taiwanese industrial production was outstandingly strong, up more than +20% from the same month a year ago and extending the April surge.In South Korea, consumer sentiment has improved sharply since the election of a reform-minded new president. Apart from a brief post-pandemic spike, they haven't been this optimistic there since 2017.And in case we don't miss it, the German economy is rising again, gaining in confidence and extending the gains that started in mid 2024. The turnaround hasn't been dramatic, but it has built more than you might have thought.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.30%, and down -3 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,320/oz, and down -US$61 from yesterday.American oil prices are down another -US$4.50 from yesterday at just over US$64.50/bbl while the international Brent price is now just under US$67.50/bbl as Middle East security concerns seem to fade.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60.2 USc, back up +½c from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are +10 bps firmer at 92.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 51.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at under 67.9 and +20 bps firmer than yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$106,141 and up +3.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +1.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news markets seemed relieved that the Iranians responded in a localised and 'measured' way to the US attack. They took this as a sign the conflict will stay regional. Even the oil price eased back. To financial markets, 'normal' doesn't look like it is being threatened.But that is not to say 'normal' is great. And it looks like markets are stubbornly refusing to price in geopolitical risks, even when they are obviously high. If they have this collective judgement wrong, then the correction could be sharp.Meanwhile, the S&P Global/Markit PMIs for the US report that the factory sector held at a small expansion, one underpinned by a small rise in new orders, even if new export orders fell rather notably. More notable was the sharpish rise in costs and prices. This sector is losing its international competitiveness. Their service sector is expanding but the modest pace slowed in June.US existing home sales however brought a surprise surge in May from April to a sales rate exceeding 4 mln/year. However that is still lower than year-ago levels, and listings surged even more. Still, the average price rose to US$422,800, although to be fair that is only back to about the level it first achieved in June 2022.The US heatwave, which we noted yesterday may affect 200 mln people there, is worrying their electricity grid operators. They anticipate a 14 year high for electricity demand in the US north east. So it will be no surprise to know that they have issued warnings about supply interruptions.In China, Bloomberg is reporting that Beijing regulators are instructing state-owned developers to avoid defaulting on publicly issued debt. It is the latest attempt by authorities to keep a lid on their property crisis that just won't end or get properly resolved. There are about 20 SOE developers, all large, and all troubled. Clearly credit risk is still worryingly high.In Japan, although new order growth wasn't flash, their manufacturing sector expanded on a stock-build. And that was their first expansion in over a year. Meanwhile their services expansion extended, now for more than 12 months consecutively, and that was driven by new orders. These conclusions come from the early June PMI released by S&P Global/Markit.In India, their advance June PMIs show gains in both their factory and service sectors from already very good levels of expansion.In Europe, the same June PMIs show new order declines have basically ended, and in Germany in particular they rose for the first time in more than three years. Cost inflation is down, and now no longer an issue. Business sentiment rose. Their factory sector is expanding while their services sector stopped contracting in June. While none of this is vigorous, if it is a turning point, it is turning in the right way for themMeanwhile the modest expansion the S&P Global/Markit PMIs report in Australia extends this modesty to six straight months there. They haven't had a run like this since late 2022. While an expansion will be hard to notice on the ground, it is encouraging that both the factory sector and the service sector are moving in the same upward direction.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.33%, and down -5 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,381/oz, and up +US$14 from yesterday.American oil prices are down -US$4 from yesterday at just under US$74/bbl while the international Brent price is now just over US$72.50/bbl and down a bit more.The Kiwi dollar is still just on 59.7 USc, little-changed from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are holding at 92.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 51.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at under 67.7 and just marginally softer than yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$102,349 and back up 2.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/-2.0%. There was a general recovery yesterday across most cryptos, but they are still down sharply from a week ago.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world's two largest economies are showing outsized vulnerabilities - geopolitical, economic, and environmental.First in China, the eye-catching retreat of foreign direct investment in April (a net outflow -US$4.8 bln) was arrested in May, positive by +US$17.8 bln for the month even if it was off the unusually declining base in April. Still, year to date, foreign direct investment into China remains unusually low, barely +US$50 bln in those five months and well below the almost US$70 bln in the same five months of 2024. For either year, these are not large amounts for a country the size of China. In 2023 the five month inflow was +US$84 bln, in 2022 it was +US$88 bln. It is a negative track that is sensitive for them.Separately, excessively hot weather and unusually heavy rain are affecting large parts of central and southern China.In Japan, May CPI inflation edged lower to 3.5%, the lowest annual rate of the year. Energy costs remained elevated, but dipped in the month. Also elevated and also dipping were food prices, now running at a +6.5% rate. However within that rice prices are almost double year ago levels, a very high profile marker that worries everyone.In the US, weekend data shows the Philly Fed's factory index booked another retreat, the third in a row although only a small one. They aren't yet benefiting from reshoring. New order levels fell. And price increases reported continued at a high level although the pace eased somewhat in this latest update.That data was just a part of the Conference Board's leading economic indicator series. And this slipped yet again in May, with the April index being revised sharply lower. They say this is "triggering the recession signal." Industrial production was the weakest contributor to the index in May. Readers may not be surprised that a Trump tariff-tax recession is on the way for the US, but we probably should brace for global consequences in 2025. It could be tougher than anticipated.At least one influential Fed governor thinks the FOMC will have to start cutting interest rates soon to lean against the recession threat. A July cut is what he suggested, saying “I think we've got room to bring it down, and then we can kind of see what happens with inflation.” Recession threats trump inflation threats for him.But inflation threats may just be starting. Until now, importers have been paying some of the tariff-taxes. But that can't last.And inflation isn't the only thing heating up in the US. Forecasters warn that dangerously hot and humid weather will blanket nearly 200 million people this coming week as a phenomenon known as a heat dome trap builds.Elsewhere, the weekend brought a raft of other central bank rate review decisions. In Turkey, their central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 46%, as expected. You may recall they raised it +350 bps at their May review.Meanwhile, at the Bank of England their governors voted 6-3 to keep their policy rate steady at 4.25% at its June meeting. Although this was the result expected, the three dissenters wanted a -25 bps cut and that was one more dissenter than was expected.In Norway however, they cut their policy rate by -25 bps to 4.25%. That was their first cut in five years.Taiwan held its official rate steady at 2%.The Philippines cut theirs by -25 bps to 5.25%.In China, their central bank left its Loan Prime Rates unchanged at their record low levels after the -10 bps dip last month.Meanwhile, Aussie miners are looking at some surprisingly weak May data for steel production in China. May and June are usually their peak months for production, but not this year. The May data shows it -6.9% lower than the same month in 2024, at 86.5 mln tonnes. That represents a very large fall away in looming iron ore requirements if it holds in June, a more than -6 mln tonne shortfall per month. (Steel production data can be seen here.)In the week ahead, we are watching for what a raft of early June PMIs tell us about the global economy. In Australia, the focus will be on the monthly CPI Indicator on Wednesday although little change at 2.4% is anticipated. Here, there will be key updates for the mortgage market activity on Friday. And in the US, Fed boss Powell will be testifying before Congress, and Trump is sure to have his attack dogs primed for that. Data on American durable goods orders are due (recovering from the sharp April drop expected), along with the May trade deficit update (no improvement expected).The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.38%, and unchanged from Saturday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,367/oz, and up +US$2 from Saturday.American oil prices are little-changed from Saturday at just on US$74/bbl while the international Brent price is now just over US$77/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 59.7 USc, little-changed from Saturday. Against the Aussie we are holding at 92.5 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 51.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at on 67.7 and unchanged from Saturday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$99,713 down -3.5% from Saturday, its lowest since early May. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/-2.2%. The fall in the bitcoin price is the least of what other crypto prices are shifting. Generally stablecoins are holding with only very minor losses, but Binance is down -5.8% from a week ago, Bitcoin Cash is down -1.8% on the same basis, the official Trump coin is down -14.8%, and Ether is down -14.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Nintendo owns CES, The future belongs to the internet & EA disses Sega These stories and many more on this episode of the VGNRTM! This episode we will look back at the biggest stories in and around the video game industry in September 1994.  As always, we'll mostly be using magazine cover dates, and those are of course always a bit behind the actual events. Alex Smith of They Create Worlds is our cohost.  Check out his podcast here: https://www.theycreateworlds.com/ and order his book here: https://www.theycreateworlds.com/book Get us on your mobile device: Android:  https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly92aWRlb2dhbWVuZXdzcm9vbXRpbWVtYWNoaW5lLmxpYnN5bi5jb20vcnNz iOS:      https://podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/video-game-newsroom-time-machine And if you like what we are doing here at the podcast, don't forget to like us on your podcasting app of choice, YouTube, and/or support us on patreon! https://www.patreon.com/VGNRTM Send comments on Mastodon @videogamenewsroomtimemachine@oldbytes.space Or twitter @videogamenewsr2 Or Instagram https://www.instagram.com/vgnrtm Or videogamenewsroomtimemachine@gmail.com Links: If you don't see all the links, find them here:     https://www.patreon.com/posts/131691264 7 Minutes in Heaven: Zero Tolerance Video Version: https://www.patreon.com/posts/131666929     https://www.mobygames.com/game/10115/zero-tolerance/ Corrections: August 1994 Ep - https://www.patreon.com/posts/august-1994-123352781 Ethan's fine site The History of How We Play: https://thehistoryofhowweplay.wordpress.com/     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic:_The_Gathering     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sega     https://www.retroreversing.com/super-famicom-snes-sdk/     https://archive.org/details/st-report             https://patentarcade.com/tag/alpex-computer-v-nintendo 1994: Street Fighter loses its luster     A Warrior of Video Games, The New York Times, September 6, 1994, Tuesday, Late Edition - Final, Distribution: Financial Desk, Section: Section D; ; Section D; Page 1; Column 6; Financial Desk ; Column 6; Byline: By ANDREW POLLACK,     Capcom's video game superhero, Mega Man, debuts this week in nationally syndicated cartoon series; Interactive software giant embraces Hollywood to create precedent-setting entertainment, Business Wire, September 7, 1994, Wednesday     https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0111301/?ref_=fn_all_ttl_2         https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0219458/?ref_=fn_all_ttl_14         https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0115421/?ref_=fn_all_ttl_1         https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USA_Action_Extreme_Team     https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0165046/?ref_=fn_all_ttl_1         Joe Morici - Capcom - https://www.patreon.com/posts/37289815 CD duplicators expand their offerings     "Keeping Track Of All Trades; Replicators Go Beyond The Basics, Branching Out Into Packaging,Distribution And More, Billboard, September 3, 1994, Section: CD REPLICATION; Spotlight; Pg. 86, Byline: BY PAUL VERNA           The Expanding Universe Of Replication; Companies Roll Out The Format Welcome Mat, Opening The Door To CDROM And Others, Billboard, September 3, 1994, Section: CD REPLICATION; Spotlight; Pg. 84, Byline: BY STEVE TRAIMAN" CD piracy explodes in Hong Kong     Software pirates strike gold, South China Morning Post (Hong Kong), September 15, 1994, Section: FEATURE; Pg. 25          https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=eEUNtQprsc0 Best Buy expands     Best Buy Plans Southern Calif. Invasion; Discounter Promises 'New Shopping Experience', Billboard, September 10, 1994, Section: Pg. 5, Byline: BY EILEEN FITZPATRICK Woolworth UK hit hard by drop  in computer software sales     Kingfisher offshoots turn in mixed performance, Financial Times (London,England), September 14, 1994, Wednesday, London, Section: UK Company News; Pg. 25,  Rhino sees slowdown     Rhino runs deeper into red at midway, Financial Times (London,England), September 20, 1994, Tuesday, Section: UK Company News; Pg. 26, Byline: By GARY EVANS Video game slump hits Wong         Video-game slump hits firm, South China Morning Post (Hong Kong), September 30, 1994, Section: BUSINESS; Pg. 18     Raymond Yap - Wong's International, Mondex - https://www.patreon.com/posts/108390526 Playmates shifts to games     Post-TMNT Playmates Goes Vid, Ad Day, September 19, 1994, Section: NEW PRODUCTS; Pg. 17 Software Toolworks becomes Mindscape     THE SOFTWARE TOOLWORKS, INC. BECOMES MINDSCAP , INC., PR Newswire, September 30, 1994, Friday - 19:34 Eastern Time Strauss Zelnick to head BMG     "Ex-IBM chief to head Canadian films group, Financial Times (London,England), September 15, 1994, Thursday, London; Section: International Company News; Pg. 27, Byline: By LOUISE KEHOE and REUTER          Ex-Film Executive Chosen To Head Bertelsmann Unit, The New York Times, September 14, 1994, Wednesday, Late Edition - Final, Distribution: Financial Desk, Section: Section D; ; Section D; Page 8; Column 5; Financial Desk ; Column 5; Byline: By SALLIE HOFMEISTER,            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss_Zelnick Katzenberg out at Disney     Now Playing: Disney in Turmoil, The New York Times, September 23, 1994, Friday, Late Edition - Final, Distribution: Financial Desk, Section: Section D; ; Section D; Page 1; Column 3; Financial Desk ; Column 3; Byline: By BERNARD WEINRAUB with GERALDINE FABRIKANT,     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DisneyWar     https://www.amazon.com/Men-Who-Would-King-DreamWorks/dp/0547520271 Battletech Centers go online     L.A.-Vegas link makes virtual a new reality, The Hollywood Reporter, September 2, 1994, Friday            DISNEY'S GAME LINK, Variety, September 12, 1994 - September 18, 1994, Section: SPECIAL REPORT: INTERTAINMENT; Update; Pg. 33 Nicastro's to co-CEO WMS     Neil D. Nicastro appointed co-chief executive officer of WMS Industries, Business Wire, September 12, 1994, Monday Arnie's Place closes down     Scrappy Arcade Owner Gives Up the Fight, The New York Times, September 20, 1994, Tuesday, Late Edition - Final, Distribution: Metropolitan Desk, Section: Section B; ; Section B; Page 4; Column 1; Metropolitan Desk ; Column 1; ; Biography, Byline: Arnie Kaye, Special to The New York Times, Dateline: WESTPORT, Conn., Sept. 19           https://www.nytimes.com/1994/09/20/nyregion/scrappy-arcade-owner-gives-up-the-fight.html?searchResultPosition=1          http://arniesplacearcade.com/pictures.html Nintendo owns CES     https://archive.org/details/edge-012-september-1994/page/10/mode/2up?view=theater     https://archive.org/details/edge-012-september-1994/page/44/mode/1up?view=theater RPGs, adventures and doom clones abound on pc at ces     https://archive.org/details/computer-gaming-world-issue-122-september-1994/page/22/mode/1up?view=theater      Sega bypasses Japanese distributors     SEGA DECIDES TO SELL DIRECT TO RETAILERS, Computergram International, September 13, 1994 EA disses Saturn     No Headline In Original, Consumer Electronics, September 19, 1994, Section: NOTEBOOK, Vol. 34, No. 38 3DO's next gen system is a dog...     https://archive.org/details/edge-012-september-1994/page/6/mode/2up     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panasonic_M2 ESRB rates its first game     No Headline In Original, Consumer Electronics, September 12, 1994, Section: NOTEBOOK, Vol. 34, No. 37 Mortal Kombat II breaks records     Acclaim's 'Mortal Kombat II' breaks video game and film industry records with $50 million opening week, Business Wire, September 22, 1994, Thursday Sega and Nintendo plan big Xmas ad spends     Sega and Nintendo Prepare to Do Battle Over Holiday Season Sales, Wall Street Journal (3 Star, Eastern (Princeton, NJ), Edition), , September 21, 1994, Business and Industry, Section: Pg. B10; Vol. CCXXIV; No. 57; ISSN: 0099-9660 EA sees CD future     Electronic Arts Shifts Focus to CD-ROM Video Games, Wall Street Journal (3 Star, Eastern (Princeton, NJ) Edition), September 7, 1994, Business and Industry, Section: Pg. B4; Vol. CCXXIV; No. 47; ISSN: 0099-9660 CDi gets new slogan     A NEW STRATEGY FOR CD-I PHILIPS LOWERS PRICE, CHANGES SLOGAN  TO DRIVE SALES, Advertising Age, September 26, 1994, Section: Pg. 14         https://youtu.be/TgtBDVRwKCQ?si=77kblLoNQUYxSl16 China seen as growth market by Nintendo     Nintendo to launch game software production in China, Japan Economic Newswire, SEPTEMBER 6, 1994, TUESDAY, Dateline: TOKYO, Sept. 6 Kyodo     Taiwan firm to compensate Nintendo, Singapore Business Times, September 18, 1994 Sanyo avoids face off with Matsushita         Sanyo to market 32-bit computer game, Report From Japan, September 1, 1994     https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7327486440387289088/ Konix lives     Aiming to succeed where others have failed - MSU's CD systems look set to find their way into homes world-wide / Growth from Technology, Financial Times (London,England), September 8, 1994, Thursday, London, Section: UK Company News; Pg. 30, Byline: By ALAN CANE     https://www.konixmultisystem.co.uk/index.php?id=interviews&content=wyn Myst coming to laseractive     https://segaretro.org/Myst_(Mega_LD)         Pioneer gets LaserActive with 'Myst' software hit; Redford eco entertainment also set for format, The Hollywood Reporter, September 6, 1994, Tuesday, Byline: Scott Hettrick       https://segaretro.org/Legacy Time Warner picks up Rise of the Robots     Time Warner Interactive to release "Rise of the Robots" on CD-ROM and Floppy in United States; TWi also to release "Rise" on 10 interactive platforms in Europe, Business Wire, September 6, 1994, Tuesday, Dateline: MILPITAS, Calif.      Sega bets on Cornhuskers     "Sega Sports opens college football season by predicting this weekend's winners on the new ""College Football National Championship"" video game;Nebraska Cornhuskers take national championship on Sega Sports field, Business Wire, September 2, 1994, Friday" Shaq goes multiple media     ive, EA Hope Shaq Game/CD Promo Hits Nothing But Net, Billboard, September 24, 1994, Section: ARTISTS & MUSIC; Pg. 10, Byline: BY MARILYN A. GILLEN Chaos Studios renamed     Gamepro September 1994 pg. 161      Tensions between Intel and Compaq heat up     Compaq-Intel spat is fascinated dread, Financial Times (London,England), September 20, 1994, Tuesday, Section: Pg. 21, Byline: By LOUISE KEHOE and ALAN CANE PowerPC alliance unravels     BUSINESS TECHNOLOGY; Computing's Bold Alliance Falters, The New York Times, September 14, 1994, Wednesday, Late Edition - Final, Distribution: Financial Desk, Section: Section D; ; Section D; Page 1; Column 3; Financial Desk ; Column 3; Target moving out of PC business     No Headline In Original, Consumer Electronics, September 12, 1994, Section: NOTEBOOK, Vol. 34, No. 37 MOS technology sold         STARTING FROM ASHES OF OLD FIRM COMMODORE'S NORRISTOWN PLANT CAN BE SOLD TO A START-UP COMPANY, U.S. BANKRUPTCY COURT SAID., The Philadelphia Inquirer, September 24, 1994 Saturday FINAL EDITION, Section: BUSINESS; Pg. D01     CONTENDER FOR FIRM ADVERTISES FOR HELP ONE BIDDER FOR COMMODORE IS ALREADY SEEKING WORKERS. THE OTHER BIDDER SAYS IT WANTS THE RESUMES, TOO., The Philadelphia Inquirer, September 22, 1994 Thursday FINAL EDITION, Section: BUSINESS; Pg. C01     Der PC-Pionier stellte Antrag auf Konkurs,  Handelsblatt, September 13, 1994, Business and Industry, Section: Pg. 11; ISSN: 0017-7296 Wing Commander budget to break records     Computer Gaming World, September 1994 pg. 12     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transmetropolitan Activision brings back 2600 classics     ACTIVISION'S NEW ATARI 2600(TM) ANTHOLOGY - A REAL BLAST FROM THE PAST; ORIGINAL BEST-SELLING HITS TO BE AVAILABLE FOR WINDOWS EARLY '95, PR Newswire, September 20, 1994, Tuesday - 15:02 Eastern Time, Section: Financial News Monty Python comes to CDRom     COMPUTER GAMES: THE CIRCUS COMES TO TOWN; Jack Schofield on something very silly a CD-ROM celebration of Monty Python, The Guardian (London), September 22, 1994, Section: THE GUARDIAN ONLINE PAGE; Pg. T7      The Information Super Highway is destined to fail     "The information highway heads for the exit lane, The Age (Melbourne, Australia), September 13, 1994 Tuesday Late Edition, Section: NEWS; Features; Pg. 15" Ads will make the interactive world go round.     into the ring, ADWEEK, September 5, 1994, All Southeast EditionSouthwest EditionWestern Advertising News Edition, Section: SPECIAL REPORT, Byline: By Michael Schrage      The future belongs to content     "start your content engines, ADWEEK, September 5, 1994, All Southeast EditionSouthwest EditionWestern Advertising News Edition, Section: SPECIAL REPORT, byline: By Michael Krantz"      FCC to investigate interactive TV bidders     FCC probing interactive video bidders, The Hollywood Reporter, September 1, 1994, Thursday AT&T pushes The Edge over a ledge     AT&T Scraps Plan to Sell Gear For Video Game, Wall Street Journal (3 Star, Eastern (Princeton, NJ) Edition), September 1, 1994          AT&T PULLS PLUG ON EDGE 16, Consumer Electronics, September 5, 1994, Section: THIS WEEK'S NEWS, Vol. 34, No. 36; Pg. 15          WHEN IT COMES TO NEW MEDIA, AT&T'S NOT PLAYING GAMES; AT THE MOVIES: TWO-WAY TV; RETAILERS SIGN ON TO INTERACTIVE TV; COMPUSERVE TO BE INTERNET PROVIDER; OTHER NEWS: , Advertising Age, September 05, 1994, Section: Pg. 13      BellAtlantic, Time Warner and Viacom face delays     Discord and Delay for Bell Atlantic Network, The New York Times, September 9, 1994, Friday, Late Edition - Final, Section: Section D; ; Section D; Page 1; Column 3; Financial Desk ; Column 3; Byline: By EDMUND L. ANDREWS, Compuserve moves to the internet     WHEN IT COMES TO NEW MEDIA, AT&T'S NOT PLAYING GAMES; AT THE MOVIES: TWO-WAY TV; RETAILERS SIGN ON TO INTERACTIVE TV; COMPUSERVE TO BE INTERNET PROVIDER; OTHER NEWS: , Advertising Age, September 05, 1994, Section: Pg. 13# Online services days numbered     The Executive Computer; In the On-Line Market, the Name of the Game Is Internet, The New York Times, September 25, 1994, Sunday, Late Edition - Final, Distribution: Financial Desk, Section: Section 3; ; Section 3; Page 7; Column 1; Financial Desk ; Column 1; XBAND to launch as Genesis exclusive     Sega and Catapult sign agreement to support XBAND game modem and network service, Business Wire, September 6, 1994, Tuesday,                   Catapult Video-Game Modem Gets a Boost From Sega, Nintendo, Wall Street Journal (3 Star, Eastern (Princeton, NJ) Edition), September 7, 1994, Section: Pg. B8; Vol. CCXXIV; No. 47; ISSN: 0099-9660     T-HQ announces debt and equity financings, Business Wire, September 19, 1994, Monday Playstation to go online... in France     Sony, France Telecom link in video game business, Japan Economic Newswire, SEPTEMBER 16, 1994, FRIDAY CDRom gets online updates     RealTime Moving Quickly Into Sports Arena; BMG, Nederlander Behind New CD-ROM Supplier, Billboard, September 17, 1994, Section: THE ENTER*ACTIVE FILE; Pg. 68, Byline: MARILYN A. GILLEN Mondex aims to revolutionize payments     A Visionary Pushes Toward the Cashless Revolution, American Banker, September 15, 1994, Business and Industry, Section: Pg. 12; Vol. 159; No. 178; ISSN: 0002-7561        https://www.patreon.com/posts/108390526?collection=481857 Futurist sees internet as savior of democracy     Books and Authors, The Associated Press, September 2, 1994, Friday, BC cycle, Section: Entertainment News, Byline: By ELIZABETH WEISE, Associated Press Writer           https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318765343_The_Virtual_Community_Homesteading_on_the_Electronic_Frontier UK magazine market collapses     GAMES MAGAZINES: A MILLION CRUEL CUTS, The Guardian (London), September 22, 1994, Section: THE GUARDIAN ONLINE PAGE; Pg. T3      Atari and Sega bury the hatchet     Sega and Atari Announce Longterm Licensing Agreements, Equity, Investment, and Resolution of Disputes, Business Wire, September 28, 1994, Wednesday Nintendo sues TSMC         NINTENDO FI ES SUIT AGAINST TAIWAN COMPANY TO STOP COUNTERFEITING OF VIDEO GAME SEMICONDUCTOR CHIPS, PR Newswire, September 13, 1994, Tuesday - 16:47 Eastern Time     919  921     COUNTERFEIT CHIP SUIT, Consumer Electronics, September 19, 1994, Section: THIS WEEK'S NEWS, Vol. 34, No. 38     https://archive.org/details/AtariCorporationAnnualReport1994 Nintendo wins in Taiwan Court     Taiwan firm to compensate Nintendo, Singapore Business Times, September 18, 1994 9th Circuit rebukes Apple     Apple's Copyright Suit Against Rivals Rejected, The Associated Press, September 19, 1994, Monday, AM cycle, Section: Business News, Byline: By BOB EGELKO, Associated Press Writer      George Forman KOs Power Punch II in court     No Headline In Original, Consumer Electronics, September 5, 1994, Section: NOTEBOOK, Vol. 34, No. 36; Pg. 12      Acclaim mocap comes to the big screen     Acclaim Motion Capture Technology Tapped For Warner Bros. 'Batman Forever'; Special Effects to Employ Motion Capture, Business Wire, September 1, 1994, Thursday        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZrZK9-stCM Watch the future of computing on your TV     https://archive.org/details/jcnhomecomputing/Home.Computing.1.XviD-VHSRip.avi          PCTV, INC. ANNOUNCES NEW @OME O FICE COMPUTER SHOWS AS PART OF FALL LINEUP OF TV PROGRAMS, PR Newswire, September 13, 1994, Tuesday - 06:57 Eastern Time Photoshop gets layered     Byte September 1994 pg. 30 Pulp Fiction wins Palm D'Or     THE MOVIE JUNKIE; The critics hated it, the audience hurled abuse: stand by for Quentin Tarantino's Pulp Fiction, The Guardian (London), September 19, 1994, Section: THE GUARDIAN FEATURES PAGE; Pg. T8 Recommended Links: The History of How We Play: https://thehistoryofhowweplay.wordpress.com/ Gaming Alexandria: https://www.gamingalexandria.com/wp/ They Create Worlds: https://tcwpodcast.podbean.com/ Digital Antiquarian: https://www.filfre.net/ The Arcade Blogger: https://arcadeblogger.com/ Retro Asylum: http://retroasylum.com/category/all-posts/ Retro Game Squad: http://retrogamesquad.libsyn.com/ Playthrough Podcast: https://playthroughpod.com/ Retromags.com: https://www.retromags.com/ Games That Weren't - https://www.gamesthatwerent.com/ Sound Effects by Ethan Johnson of History of How We Play. Copyright Karl Kuras

The Brothers Krynn return to share their fan fiction idea, The Kenobi Timeline. Inspired by the Legends novel, Secrets of the Jedi, the story follows the what-if scenario of Obi-Wan and Obi-Wan's lover, Siri secretly having a child. From there events unfold unexpectedly, especially with lesser-known companions of Anakin and Obi-Wan who are the focus of the narrative. Each of these characters has a fully fleshed-out backstory with motivations that weave into but never contradict the events of the Prequels. Want more energy and essential vitamins for your day but want to limit your caffeine intake? Visit https://www.magicmind.com/swlc to get up to 48% off with my code: SWLC20 As you listen along, you can refer to the character glossary provided by the Brothers Krynn: Tahlon Kenobi: son of Obi-Wan Kenobi and Siri Tachi (Kenobi), Wields a double-sided Blue lightsaber, his style is Form IV (Ataru variant) Talanis Salazzar: Mandalorian warrior woman, 5 years older than Tahlon. Number one Mandalorian bounty-hunter after Jango Fett Darael Feran: Trandoshan Jedi Master, Wields double-sided Green lightsaber, his style is Form III (Soresu variant), Melirah Stardust's master before leaving the order to join the Jedi, who chose to leave to work with Dooku in the CIS Melirah Stardust: A young Jedi, same age as Anakini with Red hair, born on Tattooine to a Moisture Farmer, she is hot-headed, yet dreams of being a healer. She was Darael Feran's padawan. She is the most gifted seer of her generation. Her style is Form VI (Jar'Kai) (Form IV Ataru Variant) Her right-handed lightsaber is yellow, her left-handed one is blue Mi'kraan Darklighter: A young Jedi, born on the same day, same hour as Melirah, though the two are not related, they share a bond with each other. She is tall and blonde haired, statuesque, the more beautiful of the two. A gentle soul who specializes in diplomacy and teaching younglings. She dislikes violence in all its forms, and has requested to resign her military position, but has been refused. A favourite of Yoda. Her style is Form VI (Jar'Kai) (Form III Soresu variant) Her right-hand lightsaber is Green, her left-hand is Yellow Fergus Feld: One year older than Anakin, a personality like Sturm Brightblade (Dragonlance), is fanatically loyal to the order, and a good friend of Tahlon. He does not trust Anakin and thinks he will turn to the darkside, and in extension dislikes Obi-Wan, a favourite of Yoda, who was abused by his master, Yaduu. His lightsaber style is Form V, and Form VII (Shien/Djem-So and Juyo) his lightsaber colour is blue Grrwyan: A wookie Jedi Tahlon grew up with. He dislikes Tahlon. His style is Form V (Shien/Djem-So) His lightsaber colour is Blue Ivec'leba: A twi'lek initiate Tahlon grew up with, she was sold into slavery, and liberated by Millennia Far'lin. She dies in Tahlon's arms when he is an initiate Jedi Master Chirus: A half-Blind Solustan jedi, who exposed his previous padawan's affair with another jedi, which led her to commit suicide, which traumatized. He later becomes Tahlon's master, and is three years older than Dooku. He dies on Geonosis. His apprentice was a young woman by the name of Yasmina Shen. Her former lover fled with her child to the outer rim, and founded a Jedi cult which her widow and son will end up fighting in the clone wars on the side of the Republic, as Chirus made peace with him three years before he died. Chirus' style is Form VI (Niiman) His colour is Green. Millennia Farland: The daughter of a deceased freedom fighter of Ryloth, Millennia picked up his torch and his movement to liberate all the Twi'leks from the Hutts and the Exchange, she has since become the Senator of Renkloth. (We set the planet in the neighbouring star system next to Ryloth.) She is a firebrand, who is friends of Tahlon, hates the Hutts and consistently pushes for Republican interference in twi'lek affairs, and has become disillusioned with the Senate. She is also given a military commission for the Grand Army of the Republic. Alpha Squad: Tahlon's personal Commando unit. They consist of RC-1515 “Quinze” (Leader), RC-9888 “Zuko” (Demolitions), RC-0109 “Nate” (Weapons) and RC-2898 “Wyatt” (Tech Specialist) RC-1515 “Quinze”: The leader of Alpha Squad, he has a sardonic sense of humour, similar to that of Qui-Gon Jinn. He is also strict, and at times inflexible, and is very shy around beautiful women. He is force sensitive. RC-9888 “Zuko”: The Demolitions expert of Alpha Squad, he is argumentative, severe, who complains a lot, and has a bit of a temper. He is always arguing and fighting with Nate, and yet the two consider each other almost twins. RC-0109 “Nate”: The weapons expert: He is chatty, gabby, cheerful and friendly. Nate loves heavy-grade weaponry. He considers his voice a gift from the force. He also loves show tunes and pretty women. RC-2898 “Wyatt”: The Tech specialist, he is sarcastic, a little vain about his appearance, he has a superiority complex in regards to his IQ, and is the quiet member of the team, even as he considers himself a connoisseur of fine arts and pop stars. ARC-Commander 1139 “Hale”: Commander of the 339th Legion, he serves as Mi'kraan's clone commander. Where she dislikes violence, he revels in it. He is cold and calculating, and a General of the highest quality. He was one of the top graduates from Kamino in strategy and tactics. ARC-Commander 3615 “Boom”: Commander of the 431th Legion. Tahlon's clone commander, his solution to every problem is explosives, bombardment, and even more explosives. He is very good friends with Nate and Zuko. He is fairly cheerful by nature. ARC-Commander 1238 “Krath”: Commander of the 436th Legion. One of the most bloodthirsty clone commanders, and is absolutely ruthless. He believes in no mercy, and has a belief system akin to Canderous Ordo, except he scorns the disloyal and self-serving Mandalorians, and thinks that Clones are superior to them, as he does the Jedi, whom he holds in high regard. He is Melirah's clone commander. ARC-Commander 1138 “Crusher”: Commander of the 189th Legion. Another ruthless clone commander with a cold and impatient side, who believes people have to win his respect, as he hates incompetence, and has no patience for fools. He is the finest clone commander in the galaxy. He serves under Fergus, and has been lauded by Mace Windu. CT-1159 Sergeant “Muln”: A rambunctious, duty-obsessed starfighter pilot in the Republic Navy, he serves under Melirah, and is a quick shot, and impulsive pilot. He is named after Garen Muln, the finest pilot in the galaxy. Darin Pol: A Kel-Dor Martial Artist and security officer who volunteers for the navy, and is put in Melirah's Legion. will continuously reference Justice. He is wise, and the sworn brother of Sergeant Muln Darth Malignus: A Sith Knight trained by a Sith cult that swears itself to Count Dooku and the CIS, he is the top warrior of the cult, and is from the planet Sorrus. His lightsaber is the sith variant of Form VI (Jar'Kai, Form V Shien/Djem-So variant,) He is very much inspired by Dinobot from Beast Wars.

Many thanks to listener Joshua for this brilliant episode idea - what was the Halcyon like for non-humans? We immediately thought of Twi'leks, thanks to our own Captain Ma'Li Ficent. As one of Star Wars' most beloved alien species, Twi'leks brought unique magic to the Galactic Starcruiser experience. We tracked down three renowned Twi'lek cosplayers who sailed the Halcyon in full cosplay, and their stories are extraordinary. From surprising cast member interactions to behind-the-scenes moments you won't believe, discover how becoming a Twi'lek transformed their voyage into something truly special. Heroes of the Halcyon on InstagramTheme Music ("Digital Discourse") by Yellow BarrelSend your email to heroesofthehalcyon@gmail.com - we'd love to hear from you about your journeys, episode suggestions, or just to say hi!

Although the jetlag has left him scarred and deformed, Freddy C is BACK from Star Wars Celebration in Tokyo, Japan. He's here to tell us all about his experience and be our tour guide to all the Legends-related info that came out of the convention. We'll speculate about Starfighter, the Legends references in Andor Season 2, and of course Maul: Shadow Lord and the mysterious red-skinned Twi'lek—could it be Darth Talon? Listen to find out what we think.

One of the most menacing and magnetic figures in the Star Wars universe is back. At Star Wars Celebration 2025 in Tokyo, Lucasfilm revealed Star Wars: Maul – Shadow Lord, an all-new animated series heading to Disney+ in 2026. The show will bring back Sam Witwer as the voice of Darth Maul, marking another chapter in the character's legacy that stretches from The Phantom Menace to Clone Wars, Rebels, and even Solo: A Star Wars Story.A Darker Chapter in Maul's SagaShadow Lord picks up after the events of The Clone Wars, exploring Maul's return to the shadows as he rebuilds his criminal empire on a remote planet still untouched by the Empire's grip. According to footage shown at the Lucasfilm Animation panel, this is not a redemption arc. This is Maul at his most cunning and brutal—still burning with rage and ambition.The clip shown in Tokyo sets the tone clearly: gritty and intense. We see Maul leading a prison break to rescue a Force-sensitive Twi'lek, whom he offers to train. The scene closes with a flurry of lightsaber combat as Maul cuts down multiple enemies with ruthless efficiency. The animation leans darker in tone and palette, clearly setting this series apart from previous entries.The Return of Sam WitwerFans of Clone Wars and Rebels will be thrilled to see Sam Witwer return as Maul. His voice performance has been integral to the character's transformation from silent assassin to tragic antihero. Witwer's ability to convey Maul's internal torment and calculating menace has made the character one of the most layered villains in Star Wars canon.A New Era for Star Wars AnimationShadow Lord arrives at a time when Lucasfilm Animation is doubling down on character-driven stories. This series promises to delve into Maul's psychology, power struggles, and his role in the criminal underworld. It's not about galactic conquest. It's about survival, manipulation, and control.With Star Wars: Maul – Shadow Lord set to launch in 2026, fans can expect a thrilling, emotionally charged series that finally gives Maul the center stage he deserves.

The Brothers Krynn come back on the pod to share their fan fiction idea, The Kenobi Timeline. Inspired by the Legends novel, Secrets of the Jedi, the story follows the what-if scenario of Obi-Wan and Obi-Wan's lover, Siri secretly having a child. From there events unfold unexpectedly, especially with lesser-known companions of Anakin and Obi-Wan who are the focus of the narrative. Each of these characters has a fully fleshed-out backstory with motivations that weave into but never contradict the events of the Prequels.  Want more energy and essential vitamins for your day but want to limit your caffeine intake? Visit https://www.magicmind.com/swlc to get up to 48% off with my code:  SWLC20 As you listen along, you can refer to the character glossary provided by the Brothers Krynn:  Tahlon Kenobi: son of Obi-Wan Kenobi and Siri Tachi (Kenobi), Wields a double-sided Blue lightsaber, his style is Form IV (Ataru variant) Talanis Salazzar: Mandalorian warrior woman, 5 years older than Tahlon. Number one Mandalorian bounty-hunter after Jango Fett Darael Feran: Trandoshan Jedi Master, Wields double-sided Green lightsaber, his style is Form III (Soresu variant), Melirah Stardust's master before leaving the order to join the Jedi, who chose to leave to work with Dooku in the CIS Melirah Stardust: A young Jedi, same age as Anakini with Red hair, born on Tattooine to a Moisture Farmer, she is hot-headed, yet dreams of being a healer. She was Darael Feran's padawan. She is the most gifted seer of her generation. Her style is Form VI (Jar'Kai) (Form IV Ataru Variant) Her right-handed lightsaber is yellow, her left-handed one is blue Mi'kraan Darklighter: A young Jedi, born on the same day, same hour as Melirah, though the two are not related, they share a bond with each other. She is tall and blonde haired, statuesque, the more beautiful of the two. A gentle soul who specializes in diplomacy and teaching younglings. She dislikes violence in all its forms, and has requested to resign her military position, but has been refused. A favourite of Yoda. Her style is Form VI (Jar'Kai) (Form III Soresu variant) Her right-hand lightsaber is Green, her left-hand is Yellow Fergus Feld: One year older than Anakin, a personality like Sturm Brightblade (Dragonlance), is fanatically loyal to the order, and a good friend of Tahlon. He does not trust Anakin and thinks he will turn to the darkside, and in extension dislikes Obi-Wan, a favourite of Yoda, who was abused by his master, Yaduu. His lightsaber style is Form V, and Form VII (Shien/Djem-So and Juyo) his lightsaber colour is blue Grrwyan: A wookie Jedi Tahlon grew up with. He dislikes Tahlon. His style is Form V (Shien/Djem-So) His lightsaber colour is Blue Ivec'leba: A twi'lek initiate Tahlon grew up with, she was sold into slavery, and liberated by Millennia Far'lin. She dies in Tahlon's arms when he is an initiate Jedi Master Chirus: A half-Blind Solustan jedi, who exposed his previous padawan's affair with another jedi, which led her to commit suicide, which traumatized. He later becomes Tahlon's master, and is three years older than Dooku. He dies on Geonosis. His apprentice was a young woman by the name of Yasmina Shen. Her former lover fled with her child to the outer rim, and founded a Jedi cult which her widow and son will end up fighting in the clone wars on the side of the Republic, as Chirus made peace with him three years before he died. Chirus' style is Form VI (Niiman) His colour is Green. Millennia Farland: The daughter of a deceased freedom fighter of Ryloth, Millennia picked up his torch and his movement to liberate all the Twi'leks from the Hutts and the Exchange, she has since become the Senator of Renkloth. (We set the planet in the neighbouring star system next to Ryloth.) She is a firebrand, who is friends of Tahlon, hates the Hutts and consistently pushes for Republican interference in twi'lek affairs, and has become disillusioned with the Senate. She is also given a military commission for the Grand Army of the Republic. Alpha Squad: Tahlon's personal Commando unit. They consist of RC-1515 “Quinze” (Leader), RC-9888 “Zuko” (Demolitions), RC-0109 “Nate” (Weapons) and RC-2898 “Wyatt” (Tech Specialist) RC-1515 “Quinze”: The leader of Alpha Squad, he has a sardonic sense of humour, similar to that of Qui-Gon Jinn. He is also strict, and at times inflexible, and is very shy around beautiful women. He is force sensitive. RC-9888 “Zuko”: The Demolitions expert of Alpha Squad, he is argumentative, severe, who complains a lot, and has a bit of a temper. He is always arguing and fighting with Nate, and yet the two consider each other almost twins. RC-0109 “Nate”: The weapons expert: He is chatty, gabby, cheerful and friendly. Nate loves heavy-grade weaponry. He considers his voice a gift from the force. He also loves show tunes and pretty women. RC-2898 “Wyatt”: The Tech specialist, he is sarcastic, a little vain about his appearance, he has a superiority complex in regards to his IQ, and is the quiet member of the team, even as he considers himself a connoisseur of fine arts and pop stars. ARC-Commander 1139 “Hale”: Commander of the 339th Legion, he serves as Mi'kraan's clone commander. Where she dislikes violence, he revels in it. He is cold and calculating, and a General of the highest quality. He was one of the top graduates from Kamino in strategy and tactics. ARC-Commander 3615 “Boom”: Commander of the 431th Legion. Tahlon's clone commander, his solution to every problem is explosives, bombardment, and even more explosives. He is very good friends with Nate and Zuko. He is fairly cheerful by nature. ARC-Commander 1238 “Krath”: Commander of the 436th Legion. One of the most bloodthirsty clone commanders, and is absolutely ruthless. He believes in no mercy, and has a belief system akin to Canderous Ordo, except he scorns the disloyal and self-serving Mandalorians, and thinks that Clones are superior to them, as he does the Jedi, whom he holds in high regard. He is Melirah's clone commander. ARC-Commander 1138 “Crusher”: Commander of the 189th Legion. Another ruthless clone commander with a cold and impatient side, who believes people have to win his respect, as he hates incompetence, and has no patience for fools. He is the finest clone commander in the galaxy. He serves under Fergus, and has been lauded by Mace Windu. CT-1159 Sergeant “Muln”: A rambunctious, duty-obsessed starfighter pilot in the Republic Navy, he serves under Melirah, and is a quick shot, and impulsive pilot. He is named after Garen Muln, the finest pilot in the galaxy.  Darin Pol: A Kel-Dor Martial Artist and security officer who volunteers for the navy, and is put in Melirah's Legion. will continuously reference Justice. He is wise, and the sworn brother of Sergeant Muln Darth Malignus: A Sith Knight trained by a Sith cult that swears itself to Count Dooku and the CIS, he is the top warrior of the cult, and is from the planet Sorrus. His lightsaber is the sith variant of Form VI (Jar'Kai, Form V Shien/Djem-So variant,) He is very much inspired by Dinobot from Beast Wars.

Cindy Mills did not grow up in a generational RA family. She was accessed through a babysitter at the tender age of 4. In what was probably a Santeria group, Cindy silently endured two years of terrifying abuse. Hear her story and how it set her up to join The Way International at age 18. She felt it was safer than being in the Catholic Church with the iconography of her abuse. TWI became another group to escape. Finally, she found the true Lord Jesus Christ and He set her free. Follow her incredible story in today's podcast. Only God Rescued Me: Website: www.onlygodrescuedme.com Contact Lisa:lisa@onlygodrescuedme.comTo help support this podcast: https://buymeacoffee.com/onlygodrescuedme.com

Star Wars Generations: Revisiting The Clone Wars Season 1 Ryloth ArcIn this episode of Star Wars Generations, hosts Matthew and Erin dive into the Ryloth arc (episodes "Storm Over Ryloth," "Innocents of Ryloth," and "Liberty on Ryloth") from the first season of Star Wars: The Clone Wars. Rather than doing a complete rewatch, they're focusing on their favorite episodes from each season, sharing perspectives across different generations of Star Wars fans.Erin chose the Ryloth arc, which focuses on the Republic's attempt to liberate the Twi'lek homeworld from Separatist occupation. The hosts break down the three-episode storyline, examining how each episode builds upon different aspects of war – from space battles to ground assaults to the civilian impact.What lessons does Ahsoka learn about command?The hosts discuss how "Storm Over Ryloth" shows Ahsoka Tano's early leadership struggles when she disobeys orders during a space battle, resulting in lost clone trooper lives. Matthew and Erin analyze how this mirrors Anakin Skywalker's own leadership style and foreshadows later character development. They debate whether the Jedi's approach to military command shows their fundamental unsuitability for wartime leadership.How does "Innocents of Ryloth" show the human side of clone troopers?Erin explains why "Innocents of Ryloth" resonates so deeply with her. The story follows clone troopers Waxer and Boil as they encounter a young Twi'lek girl named Numa. The episode showcases the clones' humanity beyond their military purpose, with Waxer's immediate compassion contrasting with Boil's initial reluctance. This connection becomes even more poignant when listeners learn that Waxer appears later in the series during the Battle of Umbara.What political themes emerge in the Ryloth liberation storyline?Matthew highlights how the Ryloth arc explores the complex political reality of war, where planets and their people become caught between opposing forces. The hosts discuss the conflict between Twi'lek freedom fighter Cham Syndulla (father of Rebels character Hera Syndulla) and Senator Orn Free Taa, examining how this storyline shows that not all Republic-aligned characters have the best interests of their people at heart.Other topics discussed include:Rose Tico's famous quote from The Last Jedi ("We don't win by fighting what we hate, we win by saving what we love") and how it connects to the clone troopers' mission on RylothSeparatist leader Wat Tambor's portrayal as a calculating villain focused on stealing Ryloth's resourcesHow the storyline foreshadows events in later Star Wars series like Rebels and The Bad BatchThe Clone Wars' consistent examination of how wars impact civilian populations caught in the crossfireNuma's character and her later appearances in Star Wars RebelsClone trooper individuality and personality development through visual and character choicesThe hosts wrap up by teasing next week's episode featuring Alex's picks: "Rookies," "Lair of Grievous," and "Trespass," which will explore a newly knighted Jedi, the Kaleesh cyborg general, and more Clone Wars adventures. **************************************************************************This episode is a production of Star Wars Generations, a The Ethical Panda Podcast and part of the TruStory FM Entertainment Podcast Network. Check our our website to find out more about this and our sister podcast Superhero Ethics.We want to hear from you! You can keep up with our latest news, and send us feedback, questions, or comments via social media or email.Email: Matthew@TheEthicalPanda.comFacebook: TheEthicalPandaInstagram: TheEthicalPandaPodcastsTwitter: EthicalPanda77Or you can join jump into the Star Wars Generations and Superhero Ethics channels on the TruStory FM Discord.To learn more about co-host Erin and her incredible cosplay check out her Instagram, LadyTanoCreates.Want to get access to even more content while supporting the podcast? Become a member! For $5 a month, or $55 a year you get access to bonus episodes and bonus content at the end of most episodes. Sign up on the podcast's main page you can even give membership as a gift!You can also support our podcasts through our sponsors:Purchase a lightsaber from Level Up Sabers run by friend of the podcast Neighborhood Master AlanUse Audible for audiobooks. Sign up for a one year membership or gift one through this link.Purchase any media discussed this week through our sponsored links.

The Brothers Krynn come back on the pod to share their fan fiction idea, The Kenobi Timeline. Inspired by the Legends novel, Secrets of the Jedi, the story follows the what-if scenario of Obi-Wan and Obi-Wan's lover, Siri secretly having a child. From there events unfold unexpectedly, especially with lesser-known companions of Anakin and Obi-Wan who are the focus of the narrative. Each of these characters has a fully fleshed-out backstory with motivations that weave into but never contradict the events of the Prequels.  Want more energy and essential vitamins for your day but want to limit your caffeine intake? Visit https://www.magicmind.com/swlc to get up to 48% off with my code:  SWLC20   As you listen along, you can refer to the character glossary provided by the Brothers Krynn:  Tahlon Kenobi: son of Obi-Wan Kenobi and Siri Tachi (Kenobi), Wields a double-sided Blue lightsaber, his style is Form IV (Ataru variant) Talanis Salazzar: Mandalorian warrior woman, 5 years older than Tahlon. Number one Mandalorian bounty-hunter after Jango Fett Darael Feran: Trandoshan Jedi Master, Wields double-sided Green lightsaber, his style is Form III (Soresu variant), Melirah Stardust's master before leaving the order to join the Jedi, who chose to leave to work with Dooku in the CIS Melirah Stardust: A young Jedi, same age as Anakini with Red hair, born on Tattooine to a Moisture Farmer, she is hot-headed, yet dreams of being a healer. She was Darael Feran's padawan. She is the most gifted seer of her generation. Her style is Form VI (Jar'Kai) (Form IV Ataru Variant) Her right-handed lightsaber is yellow, her left-handed one is blue Mi'kraan Darklighter: A young Jedi, born on the same day, same hour as Melirah, though the two are not related, they share a bond with each other. She is tall and blonde haired, statuesque, the more beautiful of the two. A gentle soul who specializes in diplomacy and teaching younglings. She dislikes violence in all its forms, and has requested to resign her military position, but has been refused. A favourite of Yoda. Her style is Form VI (Jar'Kai) (Form III Soresu variant) Her right-hand lightsaber is Green, her left-hand is Yellow Fergus Feld: One year older than Anakin, a personality like Sturm Brightblade (Dragonlance), is fanatically loyal to the order, and a good friend of Tahlon. He does not trust Anakin and thinks he will turn to the darkside, and in extension dislikes Obi-Wan, a favourite of Yoda, who was abused by his master, Yaduu. His lightsaber style is Form V, and Form VII (Shien/Djem-So and Juyo) his lightsaber colour is blue Grrwyan: A wookie Jedi Tahlon grew up with. He dislikes Tahlon. His style is Form V (Shien/Djem-So) His lightsaber colour is Blue Ivec'leba: A twi'lek initiate Tahlon grew up with, she was sold into slavery, and liberated by Millennia Far'lin. She dies in Tahlon's arms when he is an initiate Jedi Master Chirus: A half-Blind Solustan jedi, who exposed his previous padawan's affair with another jedi, which led her to commit suicide, which traumatized. He later becomes Tahlon's master, and is three years older than Dooku. He dies on Geonosis. His apprentice was a young woman by the name of Yasmina Shen. Her former lover fled with her child to the outer rim, and founded a Jedi cult which her widow and son will end up fighting in the clone wars on the side of the Republic, as Chirus made peace with him three years before he died. Chirus' style is Form VI (Niiman) His colour is Green. Millennia Farland: The daughter of a deceased freedom fighter of Ryloth, Millennia picked up his torch and his movement to liberate all the Twi'leks from the Hutts and the Exchange, she has since become the Senator of Renkloth. (We set the planet in the neighbouring star system next to Ryloth.) She is a firebrand, who is friends of Tahlon, hates the Hutts and consistently pushes for Republican interference in twi'lek affairs, and has become disillusioned with the Senate. She is also given a military commission for the Grand Army of the Republic. Alpha Squad: Tahlon's personal Commando unit. They consist of RC-1515 “Quinze” (Leader), RC-9888 “Zuko” (Demolitions), RC-0109 “Nate” (Weapons) and RC-2898 “Wyatt” (Tech Specialist) RC-1515 “Quinze”: The leader of Alpha Squad, he has a sardonic sense of humour, similar to that of Qui-Gon Jinn. He is also strict, and at times inflexible, and is very shy around beautiful women. He is force sensitive. RC-9888 “Zuko”: The Demolitions expert of Alpha Squad, he is argumentative, severe, who complains a lot, and has a bit of a temper. He is always arguing and fighting with Nate, and yet the two consider each other almost twins. RC-0109 “Nate”: The weapons expert: He is chatty, gabby, cheerful and friendly. Nate loves heavy-grade weaponry. He considers his voice a gift from the force. He also loves show tunes and pretty women. RC-2898 “Wyatt”: The Tech specialist, he is sarcastic, a little vain about his appearance, he has a superiority complex in regards to his IQ, and is the quiet member of the team, even as he considers himself a connoisseur of fine arts and pop stars. ARC-Commander 1139 “Hale”: Commander of the 339th Legion, he serves as Mi'kraan's clone commander. Where she dislikes violence, he revels in it. He is cold and calculating, and a General of the highest quality. He was one of the top graduates from Kamino in strategy and tactics. ARC-Commander 3615 “Boom”: Commander of the 431th Legion. Tahlon's clone commander, his solution to every problem is explosives, bombardment, and even more explosives. He is very good friends with Nate and Zuko. He is fairly cheerful by nature. ARC-Commander 1238 “Krath”: Commander of the 436th Legion. One of the most bloodthirsty clone commanders, and is absolutely ruthless. He believes in no mercy, and has a belief system akin to Canderous Ordo, except he scorns the disloyal and self-serving Mandalorians, and thinks that Clones are superior to them, as he does the Jedi, whom he holds in high regard. He is Melirah's clone commander. ARC-Commander 1138 “Crusher”: Commander of the 189th Legion. Another ruthless clone commander with a cold and impatient side, who believes people have to win his respect, as he hates incompetence, and has no patience for fools. He is the finest clone commander in the galaxy. He serves under Fergus, and has been lauded by Mace Windu. CT-1159 Sergeant “Muln”: A rambunctious, duty-obsessed starfighter pilot in the Republic Navy, he serves under Melirah, and is a quick shot, and impulsive pilot. He is named after Garen Muln, the finest pilot in the galaxy.  Darin Pol: A Kel-Dor Martial Artist and security officer who volunteers for the navy, and is put in Melirah's Legion. will continuously reference Justice. He is wise, and the sworn brother of Sergeant Muln Darth Malignus: A Sith Knight trained by a Sith cult that swears itself to Count Dooku and the CIS, he is the top warrior of the cult, and is from the planet Sorrus. His lightsaber is the sith variant of Form VI (Jar'Kai, Form V Shien/Djem-So variant,) He is very much inspired by Dinobot from Beast Wars.

Mace Windu leads the Republic's final push for victory on Ryloth, but he has to recruit some help from the local Twi'lek resistance fighters to make it happen first.   In this fully armed and operational episode of Podcast Stardust, we discuss: Our overall thoughts on this episode, Mace Windu's feature role and portrayal, The introduction of Cham Syndulla, the resistance leader on Ryloth, Cham Syndulla's reluctance to accept Jedi and Republic assistance, The appearance of the blurrg, their origins, and where they appeared in later Star Wars stories, Wat Tambor, the leader of the Separatists, and his greed, and Some Easter eggs appearing in this episode, and more. For more The Clone Wars discussion, check out episode 846.   Thanks for joining us for another episode! Subscribe to Podcast Stardust for all your Star Wars news, reviews, and discussion wherever you get your podcasts. And please leave us a five star review on Apple Podcasts.   Find Jay and her cosplay adventures on J.Snips Cosplay on Instagram.   Join us for real time discussion on the RetroZap Discord Server here: RetroZap Discord. Follow us on social media: Twitter | Facebook | Instagram | Pinterest | YouTube. T-shirts, hoodies, stickers, masks, and posters are available on TeePublic. Find all episodes on RetroZap.com.

The Twi'leks—graceful, and resilient—were a humanoid species hailing from the sun-scorched, twilight-shadowed world of Ryloth. Known for their striking appearance, they were often the subject of fascination and exploitation in equal measure across the galaxy. Become a patron to get access to the bonus episodes or support the show through Paypal and bitcoin! You can also check out our merch on Redbubble. Don't forget to also connect with us on Facebook, Instagram, X.com and Discord! https://doras.to/starlores