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Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with the good bits of news which seem to dominate today are in fact masking some less-than-good trends nested within them.First up, US ADP employment report on private payrolls for October reported a +42,000 rise in filled jobs, much better than the -29,000 shedding in September and also better than the expected +25,000 gain observers had thought. They also reported that pay growth has been largely flat for more than a year. However the October jobs gains are all concentrated in California and the other two Pacific states. Without their +37,000 gain, things would look rather somber - which is what the rest of the country faces. This survey does not cover public sector employees and of course that is currently very negative given Trump's shutdown.And we should note that this Federal government shutdown is now the longest in US history, and now longer than his first 2018-19 one.And we should also note that oral arguments are being heard in the US Supreme Court's review of the legality of the Trump tariffs. Given the stacked nature of the court, no-one really expects them to rule the Trump actions as 'illegal', but there was a surprising amount of sceptical questioning around the legal basis earlier today.US mortgage applications fell -1.9% last week from the prior week, the fifth decrease in the past six weeks.In a notable contrast to the weak factory sector, the giant American services sector expanded faster in October according to the ISM services PMI. It rose more than expected to its best level since February, putting its September stall behind it. But forward looking sentiment isn't strong, with these firms still contracting workforce levels, and frustration at the level of tariff-taxes they have to bear.Meanwhile, American household debt rose by +US$197 bln in Q3-2025 from the prior quarter to a new record high of almost US$$18.6 tln and up +4.4% from a year earlier. Mortgage balances grew by +US$137 bln and credit card balances rose by US$$24 bln in the quarter. These shifts are being considered 'steady' rather than indicating added riskAcross the Pacific in China, the private S&P Global services PMI has remained modestly expansionary in October, and still better than the official version. The sector continues supported by a faster rise in overall new business, although export sales fell modestly. Meanwhile, 'efficiency' drives led to staffing levels reducing in part due to cost concerns. Despite higher input prices, output charges fell fractionally, while business confidence regarding the year ahead softened.In Europe, Germany reported a rise in factory orders in September from the prior month, however that still leaves than -4.4% lower than year-ago levels. They will be encouraged by the recent uptick, which was better than expected. The new order uptick in the car, electrical and transportation sectors were particularly encouraging.Sweden's central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% at its October meeting, as widely anticipated. Tonight the Norwegians will review their 4% rate too, and they aren't expected to make any changes either.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.15%, up +7 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3982/oz, up +US$14 from this time yesterday.American oil prices are -50 USc lower from yesterday at just under US$60/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$64/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just under 56.6 USc, and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 87 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.3 and only marginally softer from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$103,811 and recovering +1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with of leaking economic signals everywhere we look today. And the NZD is in retreat as the mood sours on commodity currencies, and Wall Street follows.First, the overnight full dairy auction brought lower prices yet again, down -2.4% in USD terms this time, down -1.0% in NZD terms. Butter (-4.3%) and cheddar cheese (-6.6%) were the big deliners this time, but the key WMP also fell -2.7%. If it wasn't for China buying, the situation could have been worse as a bearish tone was very evident and markets for milk fats (butter, cheese) are now oversupplied. This was the sixth consecutive drop, taking the fall since early August to more than -10%. So the softness is mounting up now and analysts will be dusting off their new season $10/kgMS forecasts for a serious review.In the US there was a large retreat in optimism as reported by the RCM/TIPP sentiment survey. It fell a sharp -9.1%in November to it the lowest since June 2024, a shift that was not expected and certainly the size of the shift wasn't anticipated. Confidence among investors slipped -3.1% but for non-investors it plunged -10.4%.The US Logistics Managers Index shows that freight costs are rising and at an increasing rate, but that inventory levels are contracting. This monitoring also reports that warehousing costs and utilisation are now rising at a much softer pace.. This metric seems to suggest more momentum is leaking from the heart of the giant US economy, but it isn't in retreat yet.And staying in the US, the Americans has said China would return as a big buyer of their soybean crop after the Trump/Xi meeting. But as we noted at the time, the Chinese were silent on that commitment. And so far they have not placed any orders in the US (while continuing to buy in Brazil). It makes sense - why would you buy from a supplier who uses trade as a pawn? The uncertainty and unreliability would make anyone shy away from such commitments.All this American negativity is seeing Wall Street in retreat today. At the same time, there are some signature elections being held in parts of the US today and all eyes are on the retribution the US president may apply if results don't go his way. Withholding food aid to the poor is already underway. More will surely follow.In Australia, their central bank held its cash rate target at 3.6% again in yesterday's review but it is admitting to worries about inflation pressures. However, they are hoping those pressure are transitory. Still, remarks yesterday will have financial markets removing any chance of any rate cuts in the foreseeable future.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.08%, down -3 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3968/oz, down -US$39 from this time yesterday.American oil prices are -US$1 lower from yesterday at just over US$60.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$64.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just under 56.7 USc, and down -40 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down than -10 bps at 87.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.3 and down -40 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$102,729 and down another -3.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.3%.Join us at 1pm this afternoon for the live press conference presenting the latest RBNZ update of their Financial Stability Report.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with mixed news about how the world's factories are faring.First up today we need to report that the closely watched US ISM factory PMI undershot expectations, and those expectations were for a contraction anyway. Weak new order flows and production levels were behind the dour result. They say almost every component is contracting, and that customers are letting their inventories shrink. Costs and prices are rising however, although at a slower pace. They are being held up by own-goal tariff-taxes.It was a data report that took the wind right out of Wall Street's Monday session.But that is just one view. The alternate S&P Global factory PMI records an expansion in the sector, although it agrees that costs and prices are rising faster than normal. Both surveys noted that employment in the sector has stopped expanding.The Canadian factory PMI, which has been negative all year, seems to have stabilised. To be accurate, it is still contracting, but is back on the cusp of stabilisation, which they haven't had in 2025 so far.Likewise, the overall EU factory PMI is 'stable', neither expanding nor contracting overall. Germany and France are recording small contractions but less than previously, while there are expansions in Spain and the Netherlands. Greece again recorded the strongest expansion among EU members.In China, their factory sector is still expanding, although at a slower pace, according to the S&P Global (RatingDog) private factory PMI. New orders from domestic customers rose, but new export orders fell at their fastest pace since May. The similar official survey had this sector contracting.And the same S&P Global factory PMIs for Taiwan, Korea and Malaysia all contracted, even if only slightly. But this measure for Indonesia turned more positive. In Vietnam the upturn was sharp, hitting a 15 month high.But the S&P Global factory PMI for Australia is sounding a bit more of a warning for October. It recorded its first fall in manufacturing output in four months driven by the fastest retreat in new orders since December 2024. Employment headcounts declined for the first time since February.Staying in Australia, there was more evidence of higher & rising inflation, although this data isn't really sounding warning bells. The Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge recorded an increase in monthly inflation for October, primarily influenced by higher recreation and housing related prices. The monthly cost of living also rose. Annual headline inflation as recorded by the Inflation Gauge is slightly above the top-end of the RBA's 2-3% target band.Australia also released September residential building consent data today and it jumped +12% from August, up +15% from September a year ago. This activity has been particularly volatile over the past few months, so the September surge is actually more just a recovery rather than a serious push higher. Much of their recent gains are for townhouses and apartments. The most impressive gains are in Victoria where a real resurgence seems to be underway (despite the ugly union-mafia (CFMEU) control of their building trades).Job ads fell -2.2% in October from September in the ANZ-Indeed tracking, following a revised -3.5% drop in the previous month. This marked the fourth straight monthly decline, reinforcing signs of a loosening labour market despite elevated inflation.So it will be no surprise to know that household spending in Australia is rising only at about the rate of [household] inflation.And it will be inflation's rise that will be at the heart of what analysts will be looking at in this afternoon's RBA rate review. Markets don't expect any change in the 3.6% cash rate target, but they do want to see how the central bank plans to tackle the resurgent inflation threat.Globally, we should note that the twelve member CPTPP is about to grow again. Costa Rica is in the final stages of joining. And now the Philippines and the UAE have applied, which will take this group up to fifteen members. It seems multilateralism is far from dead, even a group like this with relatively high labour and environmental standards. In the background there are always rumours that China wishes to join too, although that never materialises. They prefer their own captive 15-country RCEP and its lower standards. Seven countries are members of both, including Australia and New ZealandThe UST 10yr yield is now at 4.11%, up +1 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$4007/oz, up +US$6 from this time yesterday.American oil prices are +50 USc firmer from yesterday at just under US$61.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$65/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just under 57.1 USc, and down almost -20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down more than -10 bps at 87.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -20 bps at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.7 and down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$106,767 and down a full -3.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news rising inflation pressures are now appearing everywhere in the West, underpinned by poor economic judgements.This week will be a busy one on the economic data front, even with the US federal agencies shut down.Locally, all eyes will be on the Q3 labour market data and most observers expect it to show our jobless rate rise to 5.3%.In Australia, the key economic event will be the RBA's rate review late on Tuesday and there will be heightened interest on how they view their rising inflation. That will drive a reassessment by financial markets about where their interest rates are heading. Australia's September trade balance is due and a big surplus is anticipated.Other central banks will chime in this week with rate reviews of their own, including Sweden, Norway and England, among others.In the US while they won't have any official data, focus will turn to the ADP Employment Report, ISM PMIs, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Canada will release its labour market data too.In China, the October trade surplus is expected to widen to around US$100 bln, although the latest official NBS manufacturing PMI showed a decline in new export orders for October. The broader RatingDog (Caixin) Manufacturing PMI is also expected to signal a further slowdown in factory activity, and its services counterpart will also be closely watched.China's official October PMIs came in over the weekend without any significant improvements from September. They say their factory PMI is now contracting marginally more and a noticeable step lower than last month, and their services PMI is barely expanding, when a small improvement was expected.Japanese industrial production rose +3.4% in September from a year ago, a much better surge in the month than the +0.5% rise that was anticipated.In the US, the Chicago PMI rose in October from its worryingly low August and September levels, but it is still contracting and it has done so for 23 consecutive months now. This month's slight improvement is on the back of a rise in new orders, modest as it may be. Basically this metric is just contracting slower now.But some companies are doing well there. An example is Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway which reported profits of US$48 bln in its latest nine month result, US$31 bln in Q3 alone. They now have cash holdings of US$382 bln. Buffett himself is fading from view now and it will be a challenge for his replacement to maintain the charisma.The EU said its October inflation level is down to 2.1%, the expected dip from September's 2.2%.In Australia, there is more evidence inflation is embedding at levels well above 3%. On Friday they released their Q3 PPI and that came in at 3.5%, unchanged from Q2, and up +1.0% for the latest quarter. Analysts had expected it to reduce.in Q3, but that isn't happening. The RBA will be as unhappy with this as it was with the equally high CPI result. Only recently a rate cut tomorrow was a sure bet, but no longer.And staying in Australia, bank lending grew +7.3% in September, up +6.3% for housing but up +9.5% for business from the same month a year ago. But there is a noticeable dip in business lending in September from August which surprised some. Going the other way, observers were equally surprised by the monthly surge in housing loans.The surge is worrying APRA. The combination of demand from the FHB guarantee scheme, and exuberance by investors is joining to create the rush. And it is only expected to increase. So the regulator is stepping in with warnings to banks to reign in the party. High DTI lending is their special focus.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.10%, unchanged from Saturday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$4001/oz, down -US$5 from this time Saturday. That is down -US$107 from this time last week. But it is up +US$141 or +3.6% for the month.American oil prices are+50 USc firmer from Saturday at just on US$61/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$64.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 57.2 USc, and down unchanged from Saturday. It is down -20 bps for the week, and down -70 bps or -1.2% for the month. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 87.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.8 and down -30 bps from yesterday, down -20 bps for the week, down -40 bps for the month.The bitcoin price starts today at US$110,113 and up +0.8% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

MUSICINTHEAIR @Villahangar #PodcastShow THIS WEEK presents >> @ovrgvls [EPISODE 400-45] TRACKLIST: 01. Canto das tres Racas - Diogo Strausz [Razor N Tape] 02. Bongolie - Darco, Dvirnuns [melody lab] 03. Sign O the Times - Prince (Moontalk edit) 04. Flashdance - Shai T remix [Armada music] 05. Amazon - Genaro Nvilla [North Drum] 06. Vini Ouais - Art of tones remix [Heavenly Sweetness] 07. Call of the wild - Dam Swindle [Heist Recordings] 08. The Request - Alex Twin, Christian Lepah [Villahangar] 09. More with less - Malive remix [Madorasindahouse] 10. Disco Copa - Pablo Fierro [were here] 11. Randoree - Cheza Sasa [were here] 12. Come around - black circle, reezna remix [Hive audio] 13. Above the clouds - the organism [organic tunes] 14. Surrender - Super Flu (Monaberry) 15. Please - Frankey & Sandrino [rekids] 16. Twi;ight Sparksong - Sentrica  Site -> www.villahangar.com FB -> www.facebook.com/villahangar TT -> www.twitter.com/Villahangar

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news benchmark bond rates are on the move higher as the bond market passes its judgment on the geopolitical trade situation and the US Fed's signals.Basically they are pricing in risks where American inflation risks are not contained, and there is no real resolution to the trade tensions triggered by Trump.The Trump/Xi meeting ended with Trump claiming it was "an amazing meeting" with "all issues resolved". Markets discounted the hubris seeing the outcome actually making little practical progress. But at least it seems to be a truce. If there is any progress, it will come after further negotiations. Basically it was a photo op resulting in an invitation for Trump to visit Beijing where his ego can be stroked.The meeting brought China more time to finesse its position with the US, and more broadly, it made clear just how much stronger China has become since Xi and Trump last met. And interestingly, neither country has yet bothered to release a readout of the leaders meeting.In Japan, their central bank kept its benchmark short-term rate unchanged at 0.5% in October 2025 and extending a pause since the last hike in January. It was the market-expected decision, bit it was a split 7-2 result, with two members pushing for a rise to 0.75%, as they had at the prior meeting.Japanese share erased losses after the central bank boss gave his press conference review, but the yen dipped.In Europe, with inflation under control and its economy humming along at a modest level, but near potential, the ECB left all their settings unchanged, both interest rates (at 2.15%) and their balance sheet run-down pace. It has been a long time since they can claim their objectives are running as they would like.Meanwhile, overall economic sentiment is picking up in the EU, consistent with the improving economic data. Both industry and consumer sentiment are up in October and expectations are back to long-term averages, a position they haven't been in since early 2022.So it will be no surprise to know the Q3-2025 EU GDP rose from Q2 to be +1.5% higher than a year agoIn Germany, their October inflation rate inched lower to 2.3% from 2.4% in the prior month. But this wasn't quite as bigger move as the 2.2% rate expected. Energy costs there are falling and food prices are up only a modest +1.4% within the overall result.Globally, passenger air travel rose +3.6% in September from a year ago, with international travel up +5.1%. This was led by Asia/Pacific's +7.4% increase and trailed by North America's +2.5% rise. US domestic travel stood out with its -1.7% fall, the only region to record a shrinkage.Container freight rates rose another +4% last week, as China-USWC, and China-EU rates picked up notably. Overall they are now -41% lower than year-ago levels.Bulk freight rates fell -4.9% last week to now be +42% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.10%, up +7 bps from yesterday after the Fed announcement and after the US-China talks. The price of gold will start today at US$3999/oz, up +US$6 from this time yesterday.American oil prices are unchanged from yesterday at just on US$60.50/bbl, with the international Brent price just on US$65/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 57.5 USc, and down -30 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 87.7 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.1 and down -30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,076 and down another -2.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just on +/- 1.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the two big policy set pieces today have been underwhelming.First up today, the US Fed trimmed its policy rate by -25% as expected, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%. It issued a timid wait-and-see review which would be consistent with growing divisions within the policymaking committee, and growing worries that inflation is returning even as their labour markets weaken fast. Policy during stagflation requires a choice. One group wants the low-interest rate juice now, the other takes its inflation fighting mandate seriously.Immediately after the announcement, the S&P500 dipped slightly, the UST 10 year yield rose a few basis points, and the USD changed little. The announcement had no impact on the gold price - nor the bitcoin price.Earlier is was reported that mortgage applications rose +7.1% last week from the weak prior week, mainly on the back of pent-up refinance activity. Mortgage interest rates dipped but only minorly and were probably not the reason for the jump, which came after four consecutive weeks of decline. But having noted that, the small rate dip did taken them to their lowest level in more than a year.September pending home sales were soft, dipping -0.9% from the same month a year ago. This followed a +3.8% rise in August.As expected, the Bank of Canada trimmed its policy rate by -25 bps to % in its overnight decision. It said that the Canadian economy is adjusting to tariffs and the sharp drop in demand for exports. The reconfiguration of global trade and domestic production is leading to higher costs. Total inflation there has been around 2%, while underlying inflation remains about 2½%. Following the decision, their central bank boss suggested their easing cycle may be over as they expect cost pressure to rise as their economy goes through this adjustment phase.Malaysia's producer prices dipped slightly in September, down -0.8% from a year ago, but this was the least in six months as deflationary pressures seem to be past them now.Meanwhile Singapore's producer prices are on the upswing now. They rose +3.7% in September from a year ago, the most in six months. It was more for factory products with those surging about double that rate on the year-ago basis.In Australia, inflation is rising, and by more than expected. Their monthly indicator reported it rose +3.5% from the same month in 2024. The RBA meets next Tuesday to decide on its cash rate, and this seems to put the kibosh on the chance of any cut. In fact, a rate hike might get some airtime in their review.At the APEC meeting in South Korea, all eyes are on the Xi-Trump meeting results - and how far Trump has backed down. (TACO) Of course, both sides will talk up the outcome, but early signs are that things like China's resumption of soybean imports from the US will be nominal at best. Trump's deals with both Korea and Japan have long-tail implications that may not work out for the US. But the short-term optics are all that matters at present.Demand for air cargo transport rose for its seventh straight month, up +2.8% in September globally from a year ago, up +3.2% for international air shipments. This was led by the +6.9% rise in the Asia/Pacific region, and lagged by the -1.4% retreat in North America,The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.00%, after the Fed announcement. The price of gold will start today at US$3993/oz, up +US$38 overnight and making back yesterday's drop.American oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday at just on US$60.50/bbl, with the international Brent price just on US$65/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 57.8 USc, and unchanged from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 87.7 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.4 and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$111,195 and down -3.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at just on +/- 2.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US Fed is meeting but flying blind on both inflation and jobs data. But other indications suggests the US economy is fading faster than previously assumed.In the US oil patch, the Dallas Fed said service sector activity contracted further in October with the revenue index, a key measure of service sector conditions, falling to its lowest reading since July 2020. Employers are shedding jobs, they notedThings weren't great in the mid-Atlantic states region but not as tough as in Texas. The Richmond Fed's factory survey contracted less in October than September, but they also reported employers shedding jobs.Despite those two reports, the ADP Employment Report indicated that private payrolls rose an average of +14,000 jobs per week in the four weeks ending on October 11, as they move to fill the labour market data void because of the BLS shutdown. If that pace holds for October, US jobs growth in the month will be about +57,000 and better than the -32,000 in September decline. Both are unusually low levels. (In October 2023, the US reported +186,000 job gains, so they have fallen a long way since then.)Also not as negative as expected is US consumer sentiment as measured by the Conference Board. It did ease lower in October, but not as low as some had feared although it is now at a six month low. Those on low incomes (under US$75,000/year) or over 55 years were more negative than those 35-55 and on higher incomes.But overnight a range of large employers announced job cuts. UPS said it has shed -48,000 jobs, Amazon -14,000. They aren't the only ones. On top of the US Federal Government furloughs, they are facing some significant labour market strainThe Fed will likely deliver a -25 bps rate cut tomorrow.Across the Pacific, South Korea said its economy grew +1.7% real in Q3-2025 from the same quarter in 2024, building on a widening expansion. Over the past year, all of their growth has come in Q2 and Q3-2025.Chinese president Xi and US president Trump are due to meet to try and work out a trade accommodation. It will be ironic that Trump can compromise with another dictator, but not with elected representatives in his own country.In India, they reported that their expansion of industrial production held up better than expected. It rose +4.1% in August and that was expected to ease to +2.6% in September. Burt in fact their fast expansion rolled on with a +4.0% gain last month. Their factory sector rose +4.8% on the same basis. This is a very good result for them.In Europe, inflation expectations dipped slightly to 2.7% in OctoberLater today, Australia will report its September inflation results, both their quarterly CPI and their monthly inflation indicator. Both are expected to rise to the 3% level. Recent comments by the RBA governor suggest they are in no hurry to cut their policy rate, given inflation remains high and their labour market is still expanding. They next review their cash rate target on Tuesday, November 4, 2025.The UST 10yr yield is now at 3.99%, dipping another -1 bp from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3956/oz, down another -US$37 overnight.American oil prices are down -US$1.50 from yesterday at just on US$60/bbl, with the international Brent price just under US$64.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 57.8 USc, and up +10 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 87.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3 and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$115,406 and down a minor -0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just on +/- 1.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news expectations are gyrating around the upcoming US-China leaders meeting. Markets have high expectations and are pricing in a positive outcome. For US markets, this is relatively modest and a 'relief'. For Chinese markets, and Asian markets more generally, it is very positive.A surge in market euphoria could well bring a surge in commodity prices, and in turn, inflation. This will complicate the US Fed's Thursday decision - but they won't know the final outcome of the Xi-Trump meeting when they make their decision later this week and that is awkward for them.Even before the results of the key meeting are known, Chinese industrial firms' profits rose more than +20% in September from the same month a year ago amid ongoing policy measures to revive business and consumer sentiment. Private-sector earnings strengthened markedly, while losses among state-owned enterprises narrowed quickly.Meanwhile, the stutter China had in foreign direct investment in the April to June period also seems to be over. In September, they attracted +¥68 bln in FDI, more than the +¥61 bln in the same month of 2024. But that earlier hesitation still means they are running more than -10% lower than last year, and 2024 was the weakest year they had for foreign direct investment in more than a decade. It may be improving slightly, but they are still in a serious shadow.And we should probably note that the hesitation about relationships with the US are expanding. Countries may 'engage' with the US transactionally to hold on to trade links, but China is winning. This is clear from Indonesia ordering Chinese fighter jets for its air force, and other naval equipment.In the US the data isn't quite so positive, although you wouldn't know it from the Wall Street signals today. Despite 'improving', the Dallas Fed factory survey is still reporting negative overall conditions. New orders shrank less, and manufacturing conditions remained below average. Perceptions of broader business conditions worsened somewhat in October and optimism about the next six months waned. But prices and wage pressures eased, the survey showed.Over the weekend, the US released its September CPI inflation data and it rose to 3.0%, up from 2.9% in August. This was slightly less than the expected 3.1% but it is still its highest level since June 2024. Energy costs, food and rents came in higher than that but petrol prices were lower.One factor to watch is that the rate of increase in the past two months is closer to +4% on an annualised basis. The number reported today relies on the low increases they had in 2024 and February to May. When those months work their way out of the annual calculation, the higher pressure outside those periods will come into play.Meanwhile, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey reported that Americans feel inflation is running at 4.6% and they downgraded their earlier confidence reading to now be -24% lower than year-ago levels.The internationally benchmarked PMI report for the US for October reported a strong start to the fourth quarter, with expansions in both the services (55.2) and factory sectors (52.2).If there is a relaxation of trade tensions after the China-US meeting, Australia could be a big beneficiary. And markets are starting to price that in.We should also probably note that the price of aluminium (or aluminum if you prefer) is rising fast again, back up to levels first reached in the pandemic spike. Causing this current surge is the price the Americans are prepared to pay because of their self-imposed tariffs, as producers avoid that market. Those American buyers are being hit twice.Also worth noting is a sudden rise in the price of sulfur (or sulphur if you prefer). Causing this spike is a fall in supply from some key oil producers (sulfur is a bi-product), when demand is rising for fertilisers.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.00%, dipping -1 bp from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3993/oz, down -US$118 overnight.American oil prices are -holding from yesterday at just over US$61.50/bbl, with the international Brent price still just on US$66/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 57.7 USc, and up +20 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 87.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.2 and up +20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at USD$115,614 and up +1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just on +/- 1.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of a sudden jump in international crude oil prices as the US sanctioned the main Russian oil companies.In the US, existing home sales in September rose to just over a 4 mln annual pace, slightly more than in August and +3.3% better than year-ago levels. But it was to levels less than markets expected (4.1 mln pace). The weakest regions were the South and the Midwest. But both coasts got good increases, especially in California.Because the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index collates a range of data that includes from US Federal government sources, and those are shutdown, the NAI is not published this month.However the October Kansas City Fed factory survey reported a strong rise in activity. But new export orders fell, and the average workweek shrank which was unexpected. Apparently some facilities are "doing more production with less people". There is a general worry about where new orders will come from.In Canada, they said their September retail activity retreated in the month and only held up by car-buying activity. Canadians aren't travelling either, and in an unusual twist the tourism flow into Canada from the US is now greater than the other way. But their factory activity rose by a good amount in the month.We should probably note that China is putting the final touches to its latest Five-Year Plan. These have been the catalyst for the country's economic rise, despite their dismissal in the West. Their state planning has brought them up to be the alternate world superpower. And China and the US will be meeting in Malaysia in a few days to see if they can iron out some knotty disagreements and pave the way for a Xi-Trump summit. It will likely happen because the Americans seem on the back-foot now, but startlingly blind to their growing weakness. And TACO.Singapore reported September inflation of just +0.7% from a year ago, a pick-up from August's four year low.Taiwan said its retail sales fell -2.2% in September from a year ago, reversing August's rise. They said public uncertainty levels are high and spending plans are conservative. But the same view isn't shared in their factory sector where industrial production was up +15% from a year ago, consistent to order information we reported yesterday and which is likely to drive output even higher in coming months.The EU reported its September consumer sentiment survey results and this was little-changed, remaining quite negative although a bit less so than in prior months. In fact, it is now its least-negative since February.Container freight rates rose +3% last week, largely on the China-to-EU trade. Overall they are now -45% lower than year-ago levels. Bulk cargo rates rose +8.5% over the past week and are now +40% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 3.99% and up +4 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today back up sharply at US$4129/oz, a gain of US$81 from yesterday, a +2.0% firming. Silver has risen less, now at US$49/oz.American oil prices are +US$3.50 higher at just under US$62/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$66/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.5 USc, and again little-changed from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 88.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.1 and essentially unchanged.The bitcoin price starts today at US$110,047 and up +1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.6%. (Trump has pardoned a major crypto fraudster.)You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US federal Government shutdown is now the second longest in their history having just overtaken the 1995-96 one where Republicans were trying to prevent a Clinton budget being passed. The longest was the 2018-19 one induced by Trump. The current one has seen about 1 mln federal workers stood down, and that is the largest of this type of impact. If this one runs another two weeks it will then become their longest.Separately, US mortgage applications inched lower last week although it was their fourth consecutive weekly decline. The weakest part of these mortgage applications are those to buy a new home. This came despite benchmark 30 year mortgage interest rates falling again and back near their one-year lows.There was another US Treasury bond auction overnight, this one for their 20 year Note. It drew is normal modest support, and delivered a median yield of 4.46%, down from the 4.56% at the prior equivalent event a bit more than a month ago.Ratings agency Moody's is pointing out that the rise of non-bank debt providers are building stress into the global financial system. Loans to non-depository financial institutions (NDFIs) are now 10.4% of total bank loans, nearly three times the 3.6% exposure a decade ago they said. It is aggressive growth that has outpaced all other lending activities since 2016.Japanese exports rose in September from August, but their imports jumped more than expected and catching analysts a bit by surprise. Basically they are now at the same level, oscillating around balance, as was expected. But some observers cheered that this result indicated Japanese consumer demand was improving.The Indonesian central bank reviewed its policy rate overnight and left it unchanged at 4.75%, surprising observers who had expected and priced in a -25 bps rate cut. But to be fair, it had lowered rates at the three previous reviews.In China, we should note that Shanghai's recent change in their house-buying restrictions has brought a spectacular surge in transactions - September home sales in this key city rose by more than +70% (they measure sales activity by m2).We should also probably note that the aluminium price rose again overnight as it has done since early April and is now at its highest level since May 2022 when it was in the pandemic bubble. Other than that, it is now at a record high.The UST 10yr yield is now at 3.95% and down -1 bp from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today sharply lower again at US$4048/oz, down -US$74 from yesterday, another -1.8% correction. Silver has fallen less.American oil prices are +US$1 firmer at just over US$58.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$62.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.5 USc, and little-changed from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 88.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.1 and up less than +10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,105 and down a rather sharpish -4.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the market assumption that Trump's upcoming meeting with Chinese president Xi would calm trade matters seems up in the air again, with that meeting now suddenly less certain. And a Trump-Putin meeting chance is fading. As well as the Gaza truce holding. Markets are in a wait-and-see mode today. But precious metals prices are giving back some of their recent gains in sharp moves lower.But first, today's full dairy auction delivered an average price of US$3881/tonne, down -1.0% from the prior full event two weeks ago. But the key WMP price fell a sharp -4.6% as the derivatives market had signaled, while the SMP price fell -2.1%, only half the derivatives market signal. Butter and the cheeses fell, but there was a big gain for AMF. Apparently. The auction system suffered glitches so these details are interim and are subject to change.In the US, their Federal Government shutdown is getting ever more toxic, now in its third week. A key White House economic advisor said yesterday the shutdown is “likely to end sometime this week,” though warned that if it doesn't, the Trump administration may resort to “stronger measures” to pressure Democrats. There seems no resolution in sight amid the partisan standoff. Republicans are pushing for a short-term funding bill to maintain current spending levels (something they railed against when Biden was President), while Democrats insist any deal must include expanded health-care provisions, specifically an extension of Obamacare tax credits set to expire at the end of 2025. Curiously, Obamacare has its deepest hold in Republican states.In American private sector data released overnight, there was quite a dive in the Redbook retail sales data tracking for last week. As its a one-off, it is not possible to say whether this is an anomaly or an indication of some sharp retail cooling. But it is worth watching. It could well be that tariff-tax price hikes are sapping retail demand.In Canada, they got an inflation surprise. Their CPI inflation rose to 2.4% in September from 1.9% in the previous month, and higher than analyst expectations of 2.3% and the highest inflation rate since February. It was the first time inflation crossed the Bank of Canada's 2% threshold in six months. Even their core inflation rate rose more than expected. But some of this jump can be explained by base effects related to their petrol price. The Bank of Canada next reviews their policy rate next week and more than a 50/50 chance of a -25 bps cut is priced in by financial markets. That would take their policy rate to 2.25%.Across the Pacific in Taiwan, their export prowess actually gained momentum in a spectacular fashion in September. Orders for Taiwanese exports surged by more than +30% year-on-year to an all-time high exceeding US$70 bln in the month, accelerating from a 19.5% increase in the previous month and far surpassing market expectations of a +18% gain. Demand for AI products surged.In Japan, Sanae Takaichi has won the prime ministership, building a coalition with the Japan Innovation Party, and will now chase spending reforms and expansionary fiscal policies, in the style of ex-PM Shinzo Abe. The Yen weakened sharply as a result.In Argentina, despite more overt US support, the peso has fallen sharply again.In Australia, they are glowing after successful Albanese deals with the US. But now delivering meaningful rare earth production become the priority. It will likely reinvigorate an already successful mining sector. If demand from China slows, as some expect, this could keep their mining sector party going for a while longer.The UST 10yr yield is now at 3.96% and down -3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today very sharply lower at US$4121/oz, down a massive -US$225 from yesterday, a -5.2% correction. Silver has fallen proportionately more, down to US$48.50/oz.American oil prices are +50 USc firmer at just under US$57.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$61.50/bbl. But even American plans to refill its strategic reserves with more than 1 mln barrels hasn't shifted the price.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 57.5 USc, and little-changed from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 88.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +20 bps at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62 and little-changed.The bitcoin price starts today at US$113,511 and up +2.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Australia seems to have avoided American ire when Prime Minister Albanese visited Washington overnight. They ended with a rare earths agreement, confirmation of the AUKUS submarine deal, and unchanged 10% tariff rates into the US.Albanese also seems to have avoided being forced into an overt anti-China position, and has resisted committing to defence spending above 2% of GDP. Trump wanted 3.5% but that seems sidelined.It is also pretty clear that having US support can be a toxic advantage - for the US. Despite the US committing more than US$20 bln of US taxpayer funding to bolster its currency, Trump support of Argentina is leaking those funds fast with traders taking the support funds as fast as they can (the peso is still weakening fast), and Argentina rushing to sell China soybeans to replace American farmers. You couldn't make this stuff up.In Canada, producer prices rose 4.0% in September from a year ago, the most since January, and prior to that the most since January 2023. But this strong rise was mostly caused by the rise in precious metals, especially gold.Meanwhile, the latest Business Outlook Survey for Canadian businesses undertaken for their central bank shows a modest recovery in sentiment, but conditions remain quite subdued.In China, their central bank kept their key lending rates at record lows for a fifth consecutive month in October, as was expected.The rate of fall in China's new house prices mellowed in September according to official data. They were down overall by -2.3%. Shanghai remained the outlier with a +5.6% rise, slightly below August's +5.9% increase for that city. But for resales, it is still tough, with none of their 70 largest urban areas reporting a gain, either month-on-month or year-on-year, not even Shanghai. If you buy new, you can only still sell into a falling market.In a surprise to no-one, China said its Q3-2025 GDP was up +4.8% from a year ago. But that showed weaker than expected consumer demand. They also reported that retail sales were up only +3.0% in September (and a one year low, compared with +3.4% in August) whereas industrial production was up +6.5% in September (+5.2% in August. Regular readers will know that we also track electricity production as a hard check against these other top-line claims. That only showed a +1.5% rise from a year ago. It regularly trails claims of big industrial output and is a core reason we are sceptical of those outsized official claims.The latest trade and tariff threats from the US is causing trans-Pacific freight rates to spike again as goods are rushed to beat the threatened imposition. But this spike is much more muted this time as most Chinese firms have transitioned away from US supply in a significant way.On the import front, some decoupling by China is stark. China's monthly soybean imports from the US have fallen to zero for the first time in seven years. They were replaced by mostly South American sources. China is also strangling rare earth magnet exports to the US, which could be serious for some American companies, including defence contractors.In France, after a tense political week, S&P downgraded France's credit rating in a rare, unscheduled adjustment, citing political instability that threatens the government's efforts to repair its finances. Basically their public purse can't afford their generous retirement benefits, but the population insist they be kept irrespective of the damage to the State.In Germany, producer price deflation stayed well embedded, with prices falling -1.7% in September from a year ago, although this was less than the -2.2% retreat in August.The UST 10yr yield is now at 3.99% and down -2 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4346/oz, up +US$95 from yesterday, a +2.2% surge to start the week. Silver hasn't had the same surge.American oil prices are -50 USc lower at just on US$57/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$60.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.5 USc, and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 88.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62, up +10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$110,505 and up +1.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Australia is facing some hard choices in their relationships with China and the US. Can you have security without economic stability? Can you have stability with a disrespectful and unreliable partner?But first, this coming week will be dominated by today's New Zealand CPI release later this morning. And a full dairy auction on Wednesday.In the US, there is some expectation that they will get their September CPI data at the end of the week (expect higher than 3%) despite the shutdown. But most focus there will be on the Q3 earnings season announcements. CPI data will also come from Japan, Singapore and Malaysia. But there will be PMIs from all over this week and well as interest rate decisions from Indonesia and Korea. And the Chinese will review their Loan Prime rates although no change is expected.From China, they will release Q3 GDP data, which is expected to show a small sag (to 4.8%?), along with a range of other core economic metrics which should give a broader fix on how they are trackingOver the weekend in India, bank loan growth accelerated to its fastest pace of expansion in September, for all of 2025, up +11.4% from year-ago levels to US$2.3 bln.After two months of declines, Singapore's exports rose almost +7% in September from a year ago, largely on the back of recovering exports of electronic goods.In Malaysia, their Q3 GDP result shows them expanding +5.2% from a year ago, accelerating from +4.4% growth in Q2. It is their fastest expansion in a yearIn Australia, there is growing concern about the building of uneven wealth distribution and how inheritances embed both inequality and entitlement. A failed attempt to address it through their superannuation system reforms has just raised the pressure to 'do something'.A more immediate stress is also building in Australia; American pressure to de-couple from China. This seems quite unlikely given the local wealth-weight dependent on the China trade. But it will make for 'interesting times' in the AU-US relationship.In the US over the weekend President Trump seemed to back off his sharp rhetoric against China in another TACO moment. Markets went into temporary relief mode on Friday. There was more TACO for Ukraine, even Gaza but both of them just added to the mess he made.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.01% and unchanged from Saturday but down -4 bps for the week.The price of gold will start today at US$4251/oz, up +US$30 from Saturday. Over the past week, gold is up a net +5.8%, silver is up a net +3.3% and platinum is now marginally lower.American oil prices are holding lower at just on US$57.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$61/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.4 USc, and up +10 bps from Saturday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 88.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.9, up +10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,732 and up +2.4% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that while the 'real economy' is barely able to expand - but is in fact doing so modestly - there are two extreme bubbles brewing - in AI firm valuations, and in precious metals valuations. One or both will end sometime, and the losses will be extraordinary when they do, likely hurting the 'real economy' when it happens. But who knows when? Financial market risk aversion is in evidence today in the bond markets.There are other stresses of course (geopolitical, retribution stupidity, commodity distortions, climate, etc.) and they have to play out at the same time.But first in the US, their economic data is dominated today by the October version of the Philadelphia Fed factory survey for the important Pennsylvania rust belt region. That reported an unexpected sharp slowdown in activity and a six month low in this index. If there is a silver lining however, it is that new order levels picked up from what were very low levels. Not helping however is that firms are again reporting higher than average cost increases. Most firms reported struggles passing on those higher costs in higher prices.American house-building activity has been struggling for the past five months but sentiment in the industry picked up in October somewhat, mainly on the expectation that lower interest rates would help. It's a sentiment improvement,not an activity improvement however.Yesterday we noted slightly improved factory sentiment in the New York state area. But today we can report that their services sector is in a tough spot, in fact its lowest since the pandemic-affected January 2021. It is glum there and firms are not expecting much improvement.In Canada, their small business sentiment has turned negative too.But Canada's housebuilding sector is on a roll, reporting strong housing starts again in September and well above what analysts were expecting. That is now five of the past six months with elevated housing start data.Across the Pacific in Japan, core machinery orders, excluding the large volatile sectors, fell -0.9% in August from July to ¥8.9 tln but it was much less than the sharp -4.6% drop in July. Analysts had expected a small gain however.And staying in Japan, it now looks like Sanae Takaichi will in fact become prime minister after more coalition talks.In France, the Macron-allied new prime minister has survived a no-confidence vote (on the second attempt) bringing some stability to their political mess.In Australia, their September jobless rate ticked higher to 4.5% and their jobs growth, especially full-time jobs growth, came in lower than expected.For the first time since June when rates started falling fast, global container freight rates rose last week, overall by +2%. In the meantime they had fallen -52%, so that suggests these costs may be bottoming out. They are now -50% lower than year-ago levels. There were modest rises everywhere, even in outbound China rates. There will be activity trying to front-run potentially new tariffs by the US, and there is Christmas-goods flows starting too.Bulk cargo rates rose a net +2% last week too, but in between it was unusually volatile. These latest levels are now +12% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 3.97% and down -8 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4273/oz, up +US$77 from yesterday and far away a new ATH. Silver is up to just under US$54/oz and an ATH. Platinum is roaring too, now at US$1732/oz and up +71% from the start of the year and approaching its 2011 highs.American oil prices are down -US$1 at just on US$57.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$61/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.3 USc, and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +60 bps at 88.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.8, up +10 bps from yesterday. Also, see this.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,652 and down another -2.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news inflation is getting entrenched in the US and policymakers are starting to look away from the threat under political pressure.But first, US mortgage applications fell for a third consecutive week with both refinance and new home applications decreasing. This came even though benchmark 30 year mortgage rates fell too. But the overall activity level is significantly higher than at this time last year.In New York state, factories there reported that their new order levels stopped falling. And they shipped more in the past month. That brought a good rebound in the New York Fed's Empire factory survey in October, making back September's drop and almost back to the August levels. One of the reasons respondents feel better about the situation is that their price increases are sticking and they are absorbing less of their tariff-tax cost increases.Supporting that are two private CPI tracking services who say that consumer prices picked up even more in September, one even suggesting CPI inflation ran at over +6% in September.And that inflation is rising is confirmed in the October Beige Book release today by the Fed. They noted tariff-induced costs were reported in all districts, as input costs increased at a faster pace due to both these higher import costs and the higher cost of services. Overall, they say American economic activity changed little on balance since the previous report, with three Districts reporting slight to modest growth in activity, five reporting no change, and four noting a slight softening. Consumer spending, particularly on retail goods, inched down in recent weeks.Across the Pacific, China said its consumer prices stayed in mild deflation, now running -0.3% lower in September from a year ago. Beef and lamb prices are rising now, but milk prices are still falling.Meanwhile Chinese producer prices, already in moderate deflation, eased back to a -2.3% decrease, from August's -2.9%.China also released its monthly new yuan loan data overnight. They came in at almost ¥1.3 tln, double the unusually low August level but still short of the almost ¥1.5 tln expected. September's get a seasonal boost normally and those factors were evident this year too. But still, the latest level was lower than the ¥1.6 tln in September 2024. Credit demand remains slightly subdued.India said its September exports rose +6.1% to US$36.4 bln, building on the August increase. Their exports to the US are only 20% of all their exports and less than half of those are caught up in punitive tariff-taxes. And even among those, it is the Americans paying, it seems.The EU said their industrial production rose again August from a year ago. Although the rise was a modest +1.1% from a year ago, that is an inflation-adjusted 'real' gain. In fact, their have reported gains on that basis for the past seven consecutive months which is unusual for them. For the prior 38 months they consistently reported year-on-year decreases. It's a turn up they will take.In Australia, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index for Q3-2025 suggests that the Australian economy is only expanding at the long term trend pace, but the pace is picking up marginally. They expect 2025 to come in below trend, but 2026 to edge up to trend levels.And Australia fell almost -66,000 homes short in the year to June of the aspirational +240,000 new homes built needed to the Government's target of 1.2 million new homes in the five years to 2029. That's a -27% shortfall in year one, not a great start because it is actually the weakest annual rise in three years. A shortfall like this will underpin prices for existing houses and make housing sharply less affordable.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.05% and up +2 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$4196/oz, up +US$52 from yesterday.American oil prices are little-changed at just under US$58.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$62/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.2 USc, essentially unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -320 bps at 87.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.7, down -10 bps from yesterday. Also, see this.The bitcoin price starts today at US$110.890 and down another -1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news both Fed boss Powell, and the IMF are increasingly concerned about financial stability.But first up today, there was a dairy Pulse auction overnight for milk powders. Prices for both SMP and WMP dipped -0.5% in USD terms, extending the easing we have noted recently. But the exchange rate fell faster, so in NZD both commodities were up about +1%.But the key economic influence today is the overnight speech from US Fed boss Powell. He (politely) bemoaned the lack of key current data, but is clearly worried about what is happening in the giant US labour market. He sees payroll about to shrink, not only because of the immigration crackdown, but softening economic activity and business hesitation due to tariff costs and uncertainty. He also said the Fed will likely end its reductions in its balance sheet because liquidity conditions are tightening. His speech sets the Fed up for defensive actions ahead of what they expect are growing economic risks. Basically, they are ready to cut rates.Financial markets noted his caution, and while they didn't retreat, they aren't as gung-ho as yesterday or last week either, despite the rate-cut implication.“My antenna goes up when things like that happen,” Jamie Dimon, said on a call with analysts about stresses like the First Brands debacle. “I probably shouldn't say this, but when you see one cockroach, there are probably more. Everyone should be forewarned on this one.”In the absence of official data while their shutdown extends, trade data is filling the gap. Today the NFIB Optimism survey came in mich lower than expected, and a fall was expected. Small business owners are increasingly frustrated with supply chain disruptions and are seeing inflation emerging in what they are paying, and having a struggle passing on those costs as sales levels turn soft.Across the Pacific, China has set an ambitious new vehicles sales target for 2025 of 32.3 mln units, far and away the world's largest market (The US is second at about 18 mln vehicles.) They will likely hit that target. In September, sales were the strongest of the year at over 3.2 mln in the month, almost +15% higher than the same month in 2024. NEVs accounted for 1.6 mln, up be almost +25% from a year ago. This is now a globally significant sector driving both the Chinese and global economy.Singapore was bracing for a +2.0% year-on-year Q3-2025 GDP expansion, down from the +4.5% expansion they had in Q2-2025. But they actually got a +2.9% expansion in the September quarter. Services and construction did more heavy lifting there than was assumed when all the focus was on the troubles their factory sector was having.In Australia, the NAB Business Confidence Index rose tin September from August's three-month low, staying above the long-run average. Business conditions were unchanged, as stronger sales and profits were offset by weaker employment. However, forward orders slipped into contraction indicating softer demand ahead.Through all these global changes, the IMF is trying to make sense of how this is affecting the world's economy. They are somewhat confused by "complex forces". Their World Economic Outlook update projects overall economic growth to slow to +3.2% in 2025 and +3.1% in 2026, down from 3.3% in 2024. They see the world adjusting to rising protectionism and fragmentation and we are now below pre-policy-shift levels. American growth is now expected lower at +2.0% in 2025 and similar in 2026, while China's economy is projected to slow to +4.8% and +4.2% in 2026. Europe is forecast to expand +1.2% in 2025 and +1.1% in 2026, Japan by +1.1% and +0.6%, Australia by +1.8% and +2.1%. Meanwhile, global inflation is expected to continue easing, though trends will vary across countries, above target in the US, with risks tilted to the upside, while staying subdued elsewhere.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.03% and down -4 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$4145/oz, up +US$35 from yesterday.American oil prices are -US$1 lower at just over US$58.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$62.50/bbl. That is changed by lower demand and higher supply expectations.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.2 USc, down -20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 88.1 AUc. Against the euro we are dow -30 bps at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.8, do2n -10 bps from yesterday. Also, see this.The bitcoin price starts today at US$112,593 and down -1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Trump (and Vance) are attempting to roll-back their aggression in the face of ugly financial market reactions and firm Chinese pushbacks. That cheered Wall Street and American investors, but others are watching the risks mount and have pushed precious metals prices up sharply.Meanwhile, China said their exports rose +8.3% in September from a year ago. This is faster expansion that the +4.4% August growth, and took the monthly level to US$329 bln the most in seven months. And this was despite a -27% slump in exports to the US. The exports grew modestly to Japan and Korea, but to some key markets they rose more than +10%, like to Taiwan (+11%), ASEAN countries (+14%), the EU (+14%), and Australia (+11%). They raised their exports to New Zealand by more than +17% - and bought +2.6% more from us. It is a pretty impressive performance, it has to be said.Of course, we don't have any American data to compare it with, the their last data for August showed their exports fell -1.4% from a year ago. American disengagement is a unique opportunity for China who so far are a net winner.And it may get worse for the US. Their farm products are being substituted by other markets (Australia is a winner), and China's rare-earth export restrictions will put a growing share of American technology in a tough spot. Of course, it may also drive innovation to other components but so far there is little evidence of that happening at the scale needed. American companies seem to just be waiting for another TACO moment.It is not all good in China. A new survey of local economists points out a clear slowing.In India, their CPI inflation fell to 1.5% in September, down from 2.1% in August and below the expected 1.7%. This is their lowest inflation rate since June 2017. It is also below their central bank's 2% lower tolerance limit under its inflation-targeting framework. Leading the rate lower were food prices that fell -2.3%, the largest decline since a record -2.7% fall in December 2018.This year's Nobel Prize in Economics has been awarded to three economists (Israeli, French, Canadian) whose investigations showed that sustained economic growth does in fact come from innovation and 'creative destruction'.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.07% and up +2 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$4110/oz, up +US$94 from yesterday. (Silver is now just under US$52/oz, up proportionately more, but that may have more to do with a short squeeze in the London market.)American oil prices are up +50 USc at just on US$59.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$63.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 57.4 USc, up a bit more than +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 87.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 49.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.9, up +10 bps from yesterday. Also, see this.The bitcoin price starts today at US$114,683 and up +0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news markets will be on edge this week after a sharp -2.7% retreat on Wall Street on Friday and the largest one-day drop since early April. Bonds twisted into defensive mode. Commodities fell, especially oil. Bitcoin retreated sharply. And the USD shifted into its traditional risk-averse mode but not by as much as you might have expected. Many traders seem to want to shift away from the traditional US-is-safe investment thinking. Not helping is that the US has started supporting the Argentine peso to prop up its Trump-friendly president.Although this coming week is the start of the US Q3 earnings season reports, the jolt at the end of last week might make these usually-important signals somewhat less relevant.Normally we would get US inflation data this coming week but it will undoubtedly not come. So we will have to rely on other US data, mainly from the Fed, but also trade sources.Developments in Japan's political transition will be important this coming week. And the IMF will release its World Economic Outlook update.China will release CPI and other September banking data this week. India will also released inflation data. For us, it will be the September REINZ results sometime this week. And Australia will release details about its September labour market.Over the weekend in Canada, they reported a surprisingly strong jobs report there for September with a gain of more than +60,000 jobs in the month, embellished because full-time job gains exceeded +106,000. This is far better than the overall +5000 gain expected. Of course, we didn't get an American jobs report for September because of the shutdown that affects their statistics system, but if the ADP Employment Report is any guide, Canada likely grew its workforce more than the US, which is a rare occurrence given that the US workforce is more than eight times larger than Canada's.On Saturday (NZT) in a bewildering social media post, Trump threatened to hike tariffs on Chinese exports - again - and cancel a meeting with Chinese President Xi in South Korea later this month. The broadside sent markets into the sharp retreat. He was reacting to the Chinese expanding its rare-earth export controls. He said "no way that China should be allowed to hold the world ‘captive'", blind to what he is trying to do with his own unilateral tariffs.Just when market optimists thought that the US and China had a chance of making up, Trump has exposed his weakness - his lack of self-awareness and childish inability to understand the double standards he seeks.Markets have reacted badly to the tiff, seeing it as a flare-up in trade wars that will hurt the global economy. Equities fell sharply, bond yields went into risk-aversion mode, and the USD became less competitive. Commodity prices fell.The US Federal Government September deficit result due out over the weekend has been delayed, another data victim of their shutdown. It might be a while - mass firings of federal workers has begun.In Japan, the elevation of "Iron Lady" Sanae Takaichi to lead the LDP seems to have stumbled at the first hurdle. The LDP's main coalition partner has refused to work with her. Japanese politics could be extending its revolving door government style.In Australia, business is in a hesitant spot too. Data out on Friday for August showed monthly business turnover fell -2.2% (seasonally adjusted) and this fall was the largest since April 2023 with drops across nine industries. Manufacturing was down -5.8%, tech was down -3.7%, and mining was down -1.9%.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.05% and unchanged from Saturday but down -9 bps for the week.The price of gold will start today at US$4016/oz, up +US$28 from Saturday and up +US$128 from a week ago. Silver is now just on US$50/oz, a weekly gain of +US$2.American oil prices are holding lower at just on US$59/bbl and a five month low, down -US$2 from a week ago, with the international Brent price now just under US$63.The Kiwi dollar is at just over 57.2 USc, unchanged from Saturday and down -110 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 88.3 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.8, unchanged from Saturday but down -80 bps for the week. Also, see this.The bitcoin price starts today at US$114,215 and down -3.0% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news China's economic activity over their holiday period will be impressing investors, while the US worries about weakening labour markets.But first, the ongoing US Federal Government shutdown means there is no USDA WASDE report for September that was due today. That will delay scrutiny of "farmageddon" especially for soybean farmers. Bailouts are on the way (in a way Trump hates in other countries) but they won't be large enough to hold off existential issues for many farmers.But despite the shutdown, there was a long-dated bond auction overnight for their 30 year Treasury bond, and it attracted normal levels of support. It resulted in a median yield of 4.67%, up from 4.58% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.Across the Pacific, Japanese machine tool orders for September rose almost +10% from a year earlier to its best September level since the record high in 2022. Driving the increase was export orders, although domestic orders gained too. It is an impressive result for them.Taiwanese exports in September continue to astound. The surged almost +34% from a year ago to more than US$54 bln in the month, their third-highest month ever. Only the prior July and August were larger, so they are on a real roll. This latest data was driven by strong demand for their electronics products, up more than +86% on the same basis. Other machinery exports were good too. You can see why mainland politicians covet their neighbour and want to claim it.In the Philippines, their central bank cut its policy rate unexpectedly by -25 bps to 4.75%.Chian is back from holiday. According to official reports, they estimated the Golden Week holiday generated 888 mln separate travel trips with total overall spending at ¥809 bln (NZ$200 bln). These are record highs with hospitality up +2.7% and tourist spending up +6%. Their overall GST data shows retail activity up +4.5% from year-ago levels for this holiday period. By any measures these are good levels and indicate China's economy is more than holding its own at present. It also indicates that domestic demand can be a sustainable driver for them, much as Beijing has wanted.Supporting this conclusion has been the positive financial market reactions post-holiday from the equity, bond and currency markets.Indonesia reported August retail sales overnight and they expanded at a good pace, up +3.5% from a year ago, and while this wasn't as fast as for July, it does indicate that recent government measures to dig them out of a languid period are working. This is important because social unrest spilled into the streets a few months ago.In Europe, Germany reported August export levels overnight and they came in almost the same as they reported a year ago (€130 bln)In Australia, their October survey of inflation expectations again shows pressure at the top of the recent range. Those expectations edged up to 4.8% from 4.7% in September, continuing high results since June. This is building concerns that Q3 inflation may exceed the forecasts of 3% when it is released on Wednesday, October 29. This latest uptick reflects the impact of unwinding temporary energy subsidies, and elevated labour costs driven by weak productivity.Global container freight rates were little-changed last week, down just -1% from the prior week to be under half year-ago levels. Bulk freight rates were also unchanged for the week to be +5% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.15% and up +1 bp from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3980/oz, down -US$73 from yesterday and now well off its high. Volatility is setting in. Silver is down too but not by as much, now just under US$49/oz. Earlier in the day it hit a new ATH before the pullback.American oil prices are down -US$1 at just on US$61.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$65.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.4 USc, down another -40 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we softened -10 bps at 87.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 65.2, down -20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$120,690 and down -2.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news it seems the absence of official US economic data isn't holding back financial market risk takers, and even the data that is available, none of it very positive, isn't restraining them either.First in the US, consumer debt growth seems to have evaporated in August. They were expecting a 'normal' +US$12 bln expansion, better than last year's +US$9 bln rise. But they only got +US$0.3 bln and far below anticipations. It rose at the slowest pace in six months, held back by a decline in credit card balances. Even car loan growth slowed to a crawl. It is a notable cooling in household borrowing, consistent with the expectation survey we noted yesterday that reported worries about jobs and interest rates are on the rise.US mortgage applications fell again last week, extending the big fall the previous week. This came even though mortgage interest rates also fell.A host of alternative jobs data from Wall Street are pointing in the same direction: the American labour market is losing steam. Many of these reports and surveys are private, for subscribers only, and so give a new advantage to a few. But even this data is still ignored by frothy markets.There was a less-well supported US Treasury auction overnight for their ten year Note, and that delivered a median yield of 4.06% which was up from the 3.99% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.Meanwhile the release of the minutes from the last Fed meeting saw benchmark rate rise slightly, the US dollar halt its rise, and the S&P500 yawn.In Japan, the Reuters Tankan business confidence survey came in quite positive again in September, although lower than for August which was unusually buoyant. Since April this survey has been quite positive.In Taiwan, their September inflation rate fell to 1.25%, their lowest since March 2021 and down from 1.6% in August. It is also now well below their central bank's target of 2%.In China, they return from holiday today and businesses and financial markets will re-open. By official accounts, the level of economic activity during this break was high.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.14% and up +2 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$4053/oz, up +US$80 from yesterday and a new high. Silver is taking off again, now at US$49.50. (By the way its record high was just under US$51 in March 2011.)American oil prices are up +US$1 at just on US$62.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.8 USc, down another -30 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we softened -30 bps at 88.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 65.4, down -20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$123,124 and up +1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news most of the latest economic data seems to be on a downslide.The overnight dairy auction brought slightly easing prices, although not be as much as the derivatives market had signaled. In the end prices fell -1.6% in USD terms, but in NZD terms they were actually up +1.5% as the value of our currency is weaker.Elsewhere, the American logistics sector is starting to show the building uncertainty in their economy. Their September LMI came in at near its weakest of 2025 with costs and inventory levels up and warehouse utilisation down.The same pullback is showing in consumer sentiment too. It softened in October as reported by the RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index.And the same wavering sentiment has been picked up in the New York Fed's national survey of consumer expectations. Inflation expectations ticked up to 3.4%, expected income growth fell, and the expectations of losing a job rose.And for the record, the US Federal government shutdown drags on.In Canada, in August, merchandise exports fell -3.0%, while imports were up +0.9%. As a result, Canada's merchandise trade deficit with the world widened from -$3.8 bln in July to -$6.3 bln in August. Exports featured their first decrease since April and the US tariff moves. Their imports featured a rush to import gold.However it may not all be gloom in Canada. Their internal economy may be on a roll. Their closely-watch local PMI surged in September to a 16-month high and smashing market expectations of only a minor improvement.Across the Pacific, we should note that today is the final day of their week-long national holiday in China.Meanwhile, Japanese household spending rose +2.3% in August from a year ago and far better than expected. In fact, it was the fourth straight monthly rise and the strongest pace since May. Helping were government support measures at tackling cost pressures (including the big rice price jump) and the new American tariffs.In Australia, consumer sentiment is receding. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell in October from September to its lowest reading in six months. Optimism about where family finances are headed is fading. Uncertainty about future interest rate cuts is rising. And pessimism about housing affordability is rising as house price expectations hit new 15-year high. These are retrograde moves.And that is showing up in job ads. The ANZ-Indeed measure of job ads fell -3.3% in September, one of the largest monthly drops in the past 18 months. The latest data was the third consecutive monthly fall and the sixth monthly drop this year so far.And globally, it is probably worth noting that the Boeing 737 has been dethroned as history's most popular jet aircraft. It has now been overtaken by Airbus's A320 which has now produced and delivered 12,260 of this model.Also globally, the World Bank came up with gloomy world trade forecasts for 2026.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.12% and down -4 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3973/oz, up +US$21 from yesterday and a new high and edging toward US$4000. In fact it hit that level, briefly, about four hours ago. Silver is taking a breather however and is lower todayAmerican oil prices are down -50 USc at just under US$61.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$65/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.1 USc, down -30 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we soft -10 bps at 88.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 65.6, down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$121,767 and down -2.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.0%.And join us at 2pm later today for the results of the RBNZ's Monetary Policy Review. Financial markets are still split on whether it will be a -25 bps or -50 bps cut, but yesterday's weak QSBO might have tipped it to the larger one.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news financial markets are running positively, but without the guardrails of American economic data, while the US Federal shutdown extends. In their absence, consumer and tech speculations are generating considerable froth.But first in China, their Mid-Autumn festival holiday spending should tell us a lot about their economic activity, and the initial signs are promising for them; unprecedented travel levels, active holiday destinations. But we will have to wait for the overall outcomes. The final day of this holiday period is tomorrow.In Japan, their stock market took off in a wave of euphoria following the vote to make Sanae Takaichi the leader of the LDP and PM in waiting. But the yen fell, probably a boon for Japanese exporters.In Europe, August retail sales volumes were mixed. They were up only +1.0% from the same month a year ago, the least in more than a year. But the change from July were slightly more encouraging driven by food purchases, especially in France and Spain. Germany and Italy were laggards however. Easing fuel consumption was part of the reason for the retail growth restraint which they will take as a 'good thing'.In France, a newly appointed Prime Minister resigned when his new cabinet could not survive its first parliamentary vote.In Australia, the Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge recorded a +0.4% increase in monthly inflation for September from August, primarily influenced by higher recreation and transport related prices. The monthly cost of living also rose. Annual headline inflation now lies at the top-end of the 2-3% target band at just on +3.0%. This is the same as the last ABS Inflation Indicator for August. At this rate, it seems unlikely that the RBA will be looking at any rate cut at their November 4, 2025 review. But not everyone links like that. The central bank is still expected to slash the cash rate despite these sticky prices, according to the latest quarterly survey of economists by The Australian Financial Review.In the US, no progress at all on their Federal government shutdown. And to distract attention, as autocrats always do, Trump is moving to impose National Guard military presence in major cities, even when the evidence is clear there are no crime waves, as he claims. But the distraction is the point.And we should note that aluminium prices are rising significantly again, up at US$2720/tonne. They are now near their highest ever, (apart from the unusual 2021-22 bubble in the pandemic recovery). Tin, Zinc and even copper are also on the rise. The main metal price not changing much is nickel. Iron ore is also flat-lining, as it has done since early 2024. But precious metals, the ones much more subject to consumer speculation, are surging. The most spectacular is platinum which is up +60% since May. (In the same time, gold has risen +22% and silver +47%).The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.16% and up +4 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3952/oz, up +US$67 from yesterday and a new high and powering toward US$4000. Silver is up too, but less, now at US$48.50/oz.American oil prices are up +US$1 at just under US$62/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$65.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.4 USc, up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we soft -10 bps at 88.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 65.7, up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$125,294 and up +2.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest however at just on +/- 1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that while much of the financial world seems disconnected from economic reality, we are about to reminded of our local realities this week.This week will be all about the RBNZ OCR review on Wednesday. Will it be a -25 bps cut or a -50 bps cut? Financial markets do not know, but then again neither do analysts. Banks have been assuming -25 bps at least and have trimmed their one year fixed home loan rates by this much. But since the last OCR review one year swap rates have fallen -31 bps, so if there is a -50 bps cut on Wednesday, expect those swap rates to fall almost immediately, and banks to follow that up with more fixed rate mortgage reductions. Savers will be looking on nervously because the rates offered to them in term deposits also face the same downward pressures.In Australia, it will be all about the Westpac consumer confidence survey, the NAB business confidence survey, and consumer inflation expectations. And of course, parts of the eastern states are now on Daylight Saving Time, so basically back to 2 hours behind New Zealand (except Brisbane, which stays 3 hours behind).The US government shutdown will remain the focus this week in the world's major financial markets as the extended impasse between members of Congress showed little signs of improvement. The shutdown jeopardises releases from US Federal agencies including the trade balance, jobless claims, and the budget statement after the September jobs report and other key data has already been delayed. Still, the minutes from the FOMC's last meeting is still expected.Among non-US governmental releases, October's Michigan Consumer Sentiment surveyed will be eyed.Over the weekend the ruling LDP party in Japan selected a new prime minister, notable because it is Japan's first female prime minister, Sanae Takaichi. Takaichi, 64, was known to be close to the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, another prominent right-wing leader of the LDP. She has publicly stated that she sees former UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher as her role model. She has been called a "China hawk". Some locally fear they may be getting a Liz Truss.In China, the massive Mid-Autumn Festival holiday travel is underway. China's railways handled an all-time record 23.1 million passenger trips last Wednesday, the first day of the eight-day holiday.Across the Pacific in the US over the weekend, the ISM released its services PMI for September and that showed a sector no longer expanding. New orders did though, barely, but a sharp slowdown from August's rise. Business activity actually contracted, down near the brief dip in mid-2024, and apart from that its lowest level since the pandemic in 2020. Analysts were not expecting this widely-watched metric to be so downbeat.Price rise impulses were restrained. Businesses are not able to pass on the tariff taxes in full, and that makes them feel quite constrained.In Canada, five provinces raised their minimum wages last week, following five who did it earlier in the year. As a result, British Columbia is now at C$17.85/hr (NZ$21.95), Ontario is at C$17.60/hr. Quebec at C$16.10/hr and Alberta is the lowest at C$15/hr (NZ$18.45).Canadian housing markets are operating on a two-track basis now; rising sales volumes and falling sales prices. In Toronto, sales volumes rose +8.5% in September from a year ago to 5592 homes sold, but average prices fell -4.7% on the same basis. And that was despite a central bank rate cut in the month.More globally, the FAO global food price index fell in September and in part that was due to retreating dairy prices. But they are still +9% higher than year-ago levels. On the other hand, meat prices rose again to be +6.6% higher than year-ago levels. Sheepmeat surged on limited supply and good demand. Beef prices rose sharply to all-time high levels.And we should probably note that after rising to €84/tonne in 2024 to start this year, EU carbon prices then fell to about €60/tonne at the end of March. But since then they have risen back to almost €80/tonne now and putting on a bit of a spurt in early October. While local carbon markets are struggling, the same is not true elsewhere.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.12% and unchanged from Saturday but down -6 bps for the week.The price of gold will start today at US$3885/oz, up +US$3 from Saturday and a new high. That is up +US$113 or +2.9% from a week ago. Silver had another big spurt this week, now just under US$48/oz, a weekly gain of +3.8%.American oil prices are softish at just under US$61/bbl, but down -US$4 from a week ago, with the international Brent price now just on US$64.5 and down -$5.50 from a week ago.The Kiwi dollar is at just over 58.3 USc, little-changed from Saturday but up +50 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we holding at 88.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 65.6, up +10 bps from Saturday and up +40 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$122,805 and virtually unchanged from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US is throwing out its existing economic playbooks and replacing it with personal revenge and retribution.First, there is no progress on the US federal government shutdown, other than Trump declaring it an 'unprecedented opportunity' to defund his opponents. The childishness of the approach by a world power is something to behold.Almost certainly, there will be no US non-farm payrolls report tomorrow due to the Federal government shutdown. That will save the Administration from what would likely be an embarrassing result of job atrophy.US-based employers announced 54,064 job cuts in September, the least in three months, compared to 85,979 in August. But of course, October is off to a very rocky start. So far this year, companies have announced 946,426 job cuts, the highest such level in five year when 2,082,262 were announced. It is up +55% from the 609,242 job cuts announced through the first three quarters of last year and is up +24% from the 2024 full year total of 761,358.In Japan, it may have been only a small improvement from August, but Japan's consumer confidence index rose in September, reaching its highest level since December 2024. Most components improved, including overall livelihood, employment outlook, and willingness to buy durable goods.In Australia, household spending inched higher by just +0.1% in August to be +5.0% than year-ago levels. It was held back by lower spending on booze and recreation, lifted by higher spending on transport.Aussie exports were weak in August, mainly because of lower gold exports. This means August goods exports were -3.5% lower than year ago levels. Imports were +4.5% higher on the same basis.And the Australian First Home Buyer scheme is open and accepting applications. The word is that demand is strong. The scheme allows buyers to buy with extreme leverage - as little as a 2% deposit - all backed up by the taxpayer. The extra demand will come at a time of low listing availability, low new build activity, and already high prices. Analysts expect to be watching future house prices zooming higher because of these new incentives and the existing pressures.Global container freight rates were down another -5% last week from the prior week, and it was the same story; the decline was led by outbound rates from China. Bulk cargo rates fell -11% in the past week to be very similar to year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is still at 4.09%, down another -2 bps from yesterday on risk aversion.The price of gold will start today at US$3841/oz, down -US$29 from yesterday.American oil prices are down another -US$1.50 at just on US$60.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$64/bbl. In the US, these much lower prices are not really flowing through to pump prices with current prices little-different to year-ago levels even though US crude prices are -18% lower than then.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.2 USc and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are up +30 bps at 88.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 65.4, and up +10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$119,725 and up +1.7% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news markets are maintaining a wilful blindness in the face of the arrival of some major threats and poor data.Firstly we should note that the US Federal Government is shutting down having reached its debt limit, and in the absence of a compromise reached between Congress (the Senate in this case) and White House. There is no sign that this issue will be resolved soon. The President is using the event to blame everyone else but himself - and the truth is he probably doesn't care what damage he is doing; he's likely relishing it.But it will likely have significant financial market impacts, although today Wall Street is acting like it will be resolved quickly as usual, holding their breath.However, this shutdown could delay the September jobs report due at the weekend. Some are even saying the shutdown could stretch all the way to the Fed's next meeting on October 29. (The US Supreme Court has knocked back Trump's attempt to oust Fed Governor Cook, at least until the new year.) Gold posted another all-time high and is on track for an annual rise +50%, while the US dollar is under pressure.Meanwhile, data out overnight shows there was a huge drop in US mortgage applications last week, the largest in nearly a year. Refinance activity dropped the most, but finance for new home purchases dropped notably too. Benchmark mortgage interest rates didn't move much, up just +12 bps and still on a declining trend.News on their labour market front wasn't good for September either. In advance of this weekend's non-farm payrolls report, the ADP Employment Report was expected to reveal a low +50,000 jobs gain. But in fact it came in with a -32,000 jobs loss for the month. It isn't clear yet whether the non-farm payrolls report will be released given the shutdown. The ADP version may be all the markets get on how the giant US labour market is tracking.And it really isn't any better on the factory floor. The latest ISM factory PMIfor September is still in contraction (49.1) with the new order component retreating from August. (But the S&P Global factory PMI which we reported last week is a bit more upbeat. Even so it reports slowing demand.)All this will depress American economic growth. But it may also raise inflation. The frequent shocks to global supply chains from factors such as the American tariffs leave central banks with limited tools to combat rising risks of inflation, according to the Governor of the Canadian central bank in a recent interview.Canada's factories are slowing too.Across the Pacific, similar factory PMIs show Japan contracting, Korea moving back into expansion on strong new orders, Taiwan going backwards, and Indonesia in a minor expansion again on the back of better new orders.So it won't be a surprise to lean that September exports from Korea rose sharply to their best level since mid-2024.In China, their Golden Week national holiday is underway, starting an enormous surge in travel by vacationers. International markets will notice the surge.In Australia, Cotality is reporting a surge in house prices driven by a worrying combination of low new supply, very low listing levels, and new low-deposit arrangements bringing in more demand. House prices jumped in all capital cities in September, led by Perth and Brisbane, but the most notable change is the rise in Sydney.The UST 10yr yield is still at 4.11%, down -3 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3870/oz, up +US$23 from yesterday and a new all-time high. Silver is back up to US$47.50/oz.American oil prices are down another -50 USc at just under US$62/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$65.50/bbl and down -US$1.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.1 USc and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are up +40 bps at 88 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 49.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 65.3, and also up +20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,765 and up +4.3% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US faces a federal government shutdown as markets start to realise Trump has no problem being reckless and has no problem hurting his 'friends'..But first, there was another Pulse dairy auction overnight. And that brought marginally weaker prices for both SMP and WMP, down a bit less than -0.5% in USD terms. In fact these prices are now at their lowest level of 2025. But because the NZD is falling, the prices achieved actually rose about the same amount in local currency.In the US, the number of job openings in August were virtually unchanged from July at 7.2 mln as was expected.But the Chicago PMI fell again in September, well below market expectations that it would improve. And the dip was sharp, the most in three months.Also weaker was the Dallas Fed services sector with their retail sector retreating rather fast in an unusual move lower.Adding to the downbeat sentiment was the September report from the Conference Board showing consumers are glummer than at any time since the start of the year. A common theme in the survey responses is the impact of rising inflation.And the downbeat sentiment may well get worse, and quickly. The White House seems to relish a full government shutdown to start their fiscal year tomorrow with mass firings rather than furloughs. And Trump says some American cities he considers dangerous should become training grounds for American troops, proposing 'his' troops be used to fight other Americans in their home cities. It is getting toxic very fast there.For their economy, there is a real possibility now that this weekend's non-farm payrolls release will be cancelled because the department releasing it will be closed. If that turns out to be the case, it could mask some quite weak results. Analysts now expect less than a +50,000 gain.Financial markets are downplaying the risks of all this, mainly because there have been many 'shutdown' crises over the decades. But at least the earlier ones involved parties prepared to reach a deal. Maybe not this time.Across the Pacific in China, their official factory PMI contracted again. But even though it is the sixth straight monthly contraction, the pace of decline was the least in that time. (Their factory PMI rose in February and March, but only by marginal levels.) Their official services PMI for September is no longer expanding. These official PMIs have been more conservative than the private surveys (RatingDog, ex Caixin) probably because they have a heavier weighting to Chinese SOEs. The private ones are more attuned to private and foreign enterprises, surveyed by S&P Global, and they report a faster expanding factory sector, and solidly expanding services sector.Meanwhile, China has frozen imports of BHP iron ore in a pricing dispute. BHP is their third largest supplier after Rio Tinto and Brazil's Vale.Taiwanese consumer sentiment rose in September, but to be fair the bar is low because it has been stunted since May.In Europe, Germany said their CPI inflation edged up to 2.4% in September, marginally above the August level. But ist was a rise that was slightly more than expected.In Australia, there were no surprises from their central bank which held its cash rate target at 3.6%. But even though this hold was all priced in, there was some surprising reaction in financial markets. Somehow the decision was regarded as 'hawkish' and the AUD rose and benchmark bond interest rates fell on the news. The strong currency remained although the bond move was later reversed. Air cargo volumes in August grew +4.1% globally, driven by a near +10% rise from a year ago in the Asia/Pacific region. But notably, North American air cargo volumes fell -2.1% on the same basis in August, the weakest global region. And the pattern was similar for passenger travel. Asia/Pacific and Latin America brought strong growth, underpinning a +4.6% expansion, but North America lagged here too, only up +0.5% from a year ago.The UST 10yr yield is still at 4.14%, unchanged from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3846/oz, up +US$16 from yesterday and a new all-time high. Silver is -50 USc softer however.American oil prices are down another -50 USc at just over US$62.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$66.50/bbl and down more than -US$1.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58 USc and up +20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are down -30 bps at 87.6 AUc and a new three year low. Against the euro we are little-changed at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 65.1, and unchanged.The bitcoin price starts today at US$112,876 and down -0.8% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news gold is soaring on US missteps, and oil is falling as demand falters while supply is rising fast.Overnight US data was mixed. August pending home sales came in a little better than expected, up +4.0% from July, but only up +3.8% from year ago levels which themselves were relatively stunted. Less than 20% of American realtors expect the next three months to improve.But the Dallas Fed factory survey reported a sharpish turn lower, a second consecutive monthly contraction in manufacturing activity and the steepest since June. But they still have growth, just far less. New orders dipped again. Costs continue to rise faster than selling prices.The chances of a US federal government shutdown are rising with compromise no longer in anyone's vocabulary. Trump thinks no-one will blame him for his intransigence.And apparently, the next US tariff target is movie production - something both Australian and New Zealand creative industries will look at with trepidation.Singapore reported their producer prices rose. They grew by +1.1% in August from a year ago, after a -2.4% drop in the previous month. And this was their first producer price inflation since March 2025.Later today, China will release its August PMI data, the key releases before their Golden Week holiday break that starts tomorrow.In India, industrial production rose +4.0% in August from a year ago, slowing slightly from the upwardly revised 4.3% growth rate in July, but less than the expected +5% increase. Still, the result continued a reasonable first half of the year, showing that initial tariffs by the Americans did not have a significant immediate impact on their industrial activity.But today's big news will be the RBA's upcoming rate review. Analysts expect no change at 3.6%. Financial markets are of the same view with nothing priced in to secondary market wholesale rates. But the RBA will be weighing the impact of relatively strong labour markets, good economic growth, low budget deficits and a strong fiscal impulse, along with rising CPI inflation touching 3.0% in August. Waiting could leave them with a harder-to-control inflation problem, although to be fair, no-one expects a rise today even if many think it would be warranted and wise.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.14%, down -5 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3830/oz, up +US$72 from yesterday and a new all-time high. Silver had yet another big spurt, now almost at US$47/oz. This latest surge puts the US gold stockpile at Fort Knox and the NY Fed now worth more than US$1 tln.American oil prices are down a sharpish -US$2 at just over US$63/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$67.50/bbl. With global demand wavering, the planned OPEC increase, plus the resumption of Iraqi oil from their Kurdistan region has traders talking about a glut.The Kiwi dollar is at just over 57.8 USc and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are down -25 bps at 87.9 AUc and that is the lowest in three years. Against the euro we are little-changed at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 65.1, down -10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$113,795 and up +3.2% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at under +/- 1.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news even the giant American economy can't seem to maintain its momentum, with Trump grabbing at all the levers of government. He is even taking government domain names and inserting is personal interests. It will become increasingly hard to separate real American economic data from that skewed by his army of MAGA blackshirts who have been inserted into these agencies.The week ahead will be busy, with major economic releases that will culminate with the US September non-farm payrolls report and related labour market data. Ordinarily they impact the policy path for the Fed this year. Markets currently expect jobs growth of less than +50,000 and settling in to a low trajectory. Before that we will get the ADP private employment report (expect even less), results from the JOLTS report, and Challenger job cuts (a big jump is expected by analysts).Besides labour updates, investors will also be on alert for the risk of a US government shutdown at the start of the new fiscal year on October 1The September update of the ISM PMI is due (analysts think it will be more contractionary than in August), and we will also get PMI releases from China, Canada, Brazil, South Korea, and ASEAN countries.Regionally, the RBA will be reviewing its monetary policy settings on Tuesday, and now no rate cut is expected due to rising inflation pressures, so markets expect it to stay at 3.6%. India will also be reviewing its monetary policy position late Wednesday, and no change is expected there either, keeping their rate at 5.5%.Daylight savings time has started in New Zealand of course, but not yet in Australia. So we will be 3 hours ahead of eastern Australia. But Queensland, the Northern Territory, and Western Australia do not observe daylight saving time, making it a patchwork system across their country.Over the weekend, China released August industrial profits data. After struggling all year to July to show any improvement on the equivalent month a year ago, August industrial profits rose at a good clip, up by more than +20% on the prior August's lame result. There was faster growth in the private sector while state-owned enterprises recorded a much smaller decline.And we should note that China is about to go on its 2025 national Golden Week holiday which will run from Wednesday, October 1st to Wednesday, October 8th, an extended eight-day holiday that combines National Day with the Mid-Autumn Festival. This is a major time for domestic and international travel, resulting in busy transportation and tourist activity. Businesses largely suspend their operations in this time but key government departments do operate.Over the weekend, Singapore released industrial production data delivering a large negative surprise. This activity was down a massive -7.8% in August from a year ago. The month-on-month data was sharply negative too. It was largely driven by very big drops in the electronics and biomedical sectors and caught analysts very much by surprise.And over the weekend in the world's largest economy, they released personal income and spending data for August which came in pretty much as anticipated. Personal disposable income rose +0.4% in the month and personal consumption expenditure rose +0.6% on the same basis - all from the prior month. But if you think about it, these are actually fast annualised rises, with costs rising much faster than incomes.This same data shows incomes were up +1.9% from a year ago, consumption up 2.7% on that year-ago basis. And as we noted, recent changes are rising faster than these annual shifts. The Fed will have noticed, as PCE inflation is now running well over 3% and its fastest since February. Goods inflation is 4.2% with durable goods up +5.2% in a year in this data. Clearly the tariff-tax effect is not transitory.The updated September University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for the US was revised slightly lower to be -21% lower than a year ago. Consumers surveyed continue to express frustration over persistently high prices, with 44% spontaneously mentioning to surveyors that high prices are eroding their personal finances. And they say they expect inflation to be +4.7% higher in a year's time - interestingly similar to the current goods inflation data.Markets are going to have to accept that inflation is being structurally embedded at above target levels and that the prospect of more rate cuts is receding if the Fed is to have any credibility with an inflation-fighting mandate. Financial markets have priced in one -25 bps rate cut this year, two by the end of January 2026. Politics may deliver them but it will be at the expense of inflation - which is clearly rising again and quite fast.And the US has also arbitrarily decided to impose new tariffs on pharmaceutical imports, adding to the costs their consumers will have to pay, either via import duties or from new facilities to be built locally. If it goes as Trump plans, the excess capacity internationally (after removing production for the US) will cause international prices to fall as US prices rise. Lose-lose for Americans, win-win for international consumers.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.19%, little-changed from Saturday to be up +5 bps from a week ago.The price of gold will start today at US$3759/oz, down -US$14 from Saturday. That is up +US$78 from a week ago. Silver had another big spurt over the weekend, now up over US$46/oz, a weekly gain of +US$3.American oil prices are down -50 USc at just over US$65/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$69.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 57.7 USc and down -10 bps from Saturday, and down -80 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 88.2 AUc but down -60 bps for the week. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 65.2, similar to Saturday at this time.The bitcoin price starts today at US$110,271 and up +0.6% from Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very low at under +/- 0.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that currency markets, bond markets and equity markets all react to unexpectedly 'strong' US data releases overnight, much of it sceptical. In fact we are getting rising risk aversion questioning its believability.US initial jobless claims came in last week at just over 180,000, and less than expected, and less than seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.728 mln people on these benefits, but still +100,000 more than at the same time last year.And new orders for manufactured durable goods rose marginally in August from July, following two consecutive monthly decreases. That puts them a good +5.4% higher than year-ago levels. But non-defence, non-aircraft capital goods orders were low in the month, up just +1.6% from a year ago and it seems clear boardrooms are not enthusiastic investors at this point.This data is far more positive than the regional Fed factory survey are picking up, so we will need to wait before we conclude reshoring is actually happening.The September factory survey from the Kansas City Fed described only very modest changes in factories in their region. Order backlogs reduced as did new orders for export.In fact, US exports fell -1.4% in August in updated trade data, while imports fell -5.6%. That narrowed their trade deficit but only to the level it was in June, and not materially different to August a year ago. So it is hard to see much 'progress' here in shrinking this.But, the final US GDP result for the June quarter came in with a huge revision higher, up +3.8% from a year ago. This was apparently driven by a decrease in imports, and an increase in consumer spending, offset by decreases in investment and exports. There was a one-off revision to the consumer spending data in this release which twisted things somewhat. Again, this data is hard to reconcile with the real-time high-frequency data that we saw in the second quarter, but this is what they are reporting.If the Fed accepts this GDP data, rate cuts there are likely pushed further away.Meanwhile, August data on existing home sales dipped in August.In Canada, they reported average weekly earnings for July and they were up +3.3% to C$1,308 from a year ago, following a +3.6% increase in June.And staying in Canada, their federal government has instructed Canada Post to end door-to-door postal delivery.In China, the yuan has appreciated to the highest level in nearly 10 months against the American dollar as concerns over frictions between the world's two largest economies subside and China's economic growth prospects remain steady.In Taiwan, after four consecutive months of decreases, their reported retail sales that rose in August from a year ago. This data is modest compared to their booming industrial sector as we noted yesterday.And perhaps we should note that the Swiss central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 0% in an overnight review. Switzerland has inflation running at just +0.2% pa.Container freight rates fell faster last week, down -8% for the week to be a massive -55% lower than year-ago levels. And it was again outbound rates from China that is driving this retreat. But bulk freight rates actually rose again last week by +2.9% to be +10.5% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.17%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3739/oz, up just +US$6 from yesterday. Silver is on the mover however, up approaching US$45/oz.American oil prices are little-changed at just under US$65/bbl, with the international Brent price still just over US$69/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.6 USc and down another -50 bps from yesterday and that is its lowest level since mid-April. Against the Aussie we are down just -10 bps at 88.2 AUc and near a three-year low. Against the euro we are actually unchanged at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 65.2, and down another -30 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,928 and down -4.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at just over +/- 2.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are less than a week away from another potential US federal government funding shutdown.But first up today, we can report American August data for new home sales has surprised everyone and jumped a very sharp +20% from July to an annualised rate of 800,000. Few saw this coming. Analysts say sharp discounting and widespread promotional offers are behind the twist because the unsold inventories were mounting. But the gains were widespread especially in the Northeast (+72%). Or it could just be rogue data.And that is because we had not seen any recent trend in rising mortgage application levels to support such a big August jump. In fact last week's application levels were dominated by refinance activity, not new home purchase applications. The discrepancy between the two data releases is a curiosity.There was another well-supported US Treasury bond auction earlier today, this one for their 5-year Note. The median yield came in at 3.65%, little-changed from the 3.67% at the prior equivalent event.Taiwanese industrial production rose in August by +14.4% from a year ago, slowing from an upwardly revised +18.7% gain in the previous month. Taiwan seems to deliver a never-ending stream of double-digit economic advances. It has to be the world's most impressive economy at present.Hong Kong has now shifted to clean-up mode now that Super-Typhoon Ragasa has moved on. There is a lot to restore. It has made landfall in southern China now, where 2 mln people have been evacuated. Ragasa is 2025's largest storm globally and is the largest since the all-time records set by Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, the most powerful tropical cyclones ever recorded. (Hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones are all the same, just named differently based on where they develop from.)Moving on, yesterday's release of the August monthly CPI indicator series in Australia shows that inflations pressures are still alive - and rising. They came in at 3.0%, the most in more than a year. But they have a 1-3% target range so it is technically within that range. The trajectory will worry the RBA all the same. And financial markets have pushed back their expectations of when the RBA will cut rates next.In Indonesia, the combination of an accident at a major copper mine that has closed it completely, and in Peru, a closure over a tough political dispute, has seen copper prices jump overnight.In Russia, that are raising their GST to 22% to pay for their war on Ukraine.In the US, attention is twisting back to lending, liquidity and credit-rating standards as two major financials collapse in a reprise of the GFC sub-prime mistakes. Both Tricolor (a Texas car loan lender) and First Brands (a car parts maker) recently had good credit ratings confirmed.And tariffs, rising joblessness, and weird public policy make the globally important US economy unusually vulnerable at present. So we should note that a US Federal Government shutdown seems on the cards as Trump seems not to care. One of these types of events could trigger something to seriously unnerve financial markets - the US not paying its bills could be it (and is unlikely to be seen as "just another Trump bankruptcy".)The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.15%, up +3 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3733/oz, down -US$48 from yesterday. Silver was lower too and now under US$44/oz.American oil prices are up +US$1.50 at just under US$65/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$69/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.1 USc and down -50 bps from yesterday and that is its lowest level since mid-April. Against the Aussie we are also down -50 bps at 88.3 AUc and near a three-year low. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 65.5, and down another -30 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$113.858 and up +1.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just over +/- 1.1%.Today, all eyes will be on the big Fonterra announcements, which are expected to be very positive. Join us for our coverage that will start with their NZX market releases soon.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Review and analysis of pertinent national issues in Twi

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the latest data shows American business activity slowing further.But first up this morning we should note that the overnight dairy Pulse event brought little-change to either the ASMP or WMP prices. This is as expected for SMP but 'better' than expected for WMP. In NZD however there was a rise because the Kiwi dollar fell. All eyes are now on tomorrows Fonterra annual report.There were also no surprises in the S&P Global/Markit PMIs for the US for September. Both their flash factory and services PMI reading eased slightly, but are not contracting. Growth may be slowing, but selling price inflation is cooling too. The report noted weak new order growth and tariff-taxes were widely cited as the main cause of sharply higher costs, but the weaker demand and stiff competition reportedly limited the scope to raise selling prices,And that is confirmed in the Richmond Fed factory survey which turned down sharply in September. New order levels were weak, cost pressures strong. Services in the same mid-Atlantic area were not very positive either.There was another very large US Treasury 2yr Note auction today, one that saw another pull-back in overall support although the coverage remains strong. The median yield dipped to 3.52% from 3.60% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In China, Nikkei has found that retail consumer loans are going bad faster, the latest headache for Chinese lenders already plagued by the country's real estate problems. And it comes just when the government aims to stimulate consumption through increased consumer debt backed up by more public borrowings. Nikkei Asia combed through the latest interim disclosures by mainland banks listed in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong and found that nonperforming personal loans rose at a faster pace than those in the real estate sector during the first half of the year.Overnight, Taiwan reported yet another outstandingly good export orders data, again exceeding the expected very good expansion.Super Typhoon Ragasa is expected to hit Hong Kong today, and they are still expecting up to a 5m storm surge (above chart datum). But the eye of the storm is passing slightly south, so it will affect large parts of southern China.India's PMI's were again very expansionary in September for both their services and factory sectors. No signs of cooling in this market.In Europe, their PMIs continue with a modest expansion, even if it is their best in 16 months. But new order levels are only holding, not growing. And the factory sector is now not expanding.And the Swedes delivered a surprise cut to their policy rate, down -25 bps to 1.75%. They cited geopolitical tensions and uncertain US trade policy as the reasons for the move now even though they are experiencing good current growth with inflation up at 3.2% when 2% is their target.In Australia, their PMI's reveal a pullback in September but both sectors are still expanding.Globally, the OECD reported that the global economy was more resilient than anticipated in the first half of 2025, but downside risks loom large as higher barriers to trade and geopolitical and policy uncertainty continue to weigh on activity in many economies. New Zealand doesn't feature in this report, but is sees Australian growth rising, Chinese growth holding at a reasonably good level, and US growth halving to a weak level by 2026.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.12%, down -2 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3781/oz, up another +US$45 from yesterday and a new ATH. Silver was little-changed but still up over US$44/oz.American oil prices are up +US$1 at just under US$63.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 58.6 USc and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are also down -10 bps at 88.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 65.7, down -20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$111,974 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Super Typhoon Ragasa aims for a direct hit on southern China.But first up, we can report that the US National Activity Index as collated by the Chicago Fed, was less negative in August, extending the negative trend to five consecutive months. But the July data was revised lower.There were Fed speakers out overnight. Miran made the lone case in favour of Trump's big slash, whereas Hammack, Barkin, Williams, Musalem, and earlier Daly, all made the case for eyeing inflation risks as well as jobs risks.In Canada, their producer prices rose faster, now up +4.0% from a year ago, largely on the impacts of the US tariff-taxes where Canadian substituted other components than American ones. But beef prices are a notable riser in this latest data.The People's Bank of China kept its key lending rates unchanged at record lows for the fourth straight month yesterday, as expected. The 1-year loan prime rate remained at 3.0%, while the 5-year benchmark stayed at 3.5%.In China, they said they will limit the steel industry's growth to 4% over the next two years to deal with their severe over-capacity problem and force companies to invest in quality rather than volume gains.And the fast growing rail land-bridge from China to Europe is closing, essentially because the Poland-Belarus border is being sealed to guard against Russian infiltration. It is hard to see Beijing being happy about that.Hong Kong authorities are bracing for “serious threats” posed by the looming Super Typhoon Ragasa, which is expected to bring hurricane-force winds with speeds of up to 220 km/h over the next few days, potentially breaking a record set during Saola in 2023. Their airport is likely to close, along with much else including their stock market. And mass evacuations have started in neighbouring Shenzhen.This is what the Hong Kong official met service warned late last night. "Under the influence of significant storm surge, there will be a rise in water level of about 2 metres over coastal areas of Hong Kong in the morning of Wednesday. The maximum water level can generally reach around 3.5 to 4 metres above chart datum, and the water level at Tolo Harbour may even reach 4 to 5 metres above chart datum. Members of the public should take appropriate precautions." A 5 metre storm surge seems pretty significant.In Europe, and despite political and tariff uncertainties, consumer sentiment 'rose' (that is, got less bad) in September, probably because both inflation and borrowing costs eased in the past month.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.14%, unchanged from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3736/oz, up +US$52 from yesterday and a new ATH. Silver had another +US$1 spurt overnight, now up over US$44/oz to a 14 year high.American oil prices are little-changed at just under US$62.50/bbl, with the international Brent price still just over US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 58.7 USc and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are still just under 88.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 65.9, uo +10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$112,448 and down -2.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are likely to get a lesson this week reconfirming that equity markets all look for short-term profit hits and are now setting prices on these short-term factors. But bond markets are much more focused on risks 10-30 years ahead and their signals are diverging markedly.This coming week however will largely feature reactions to last week's big events - the US Fed positioning and rate cut, and the awful NZ Q2-2025 GDP data.Here we will be watching for more fallout from that, after the NZD got marked down sharply. Will markets assess that the June result will be repeated in Q3? After all we are now only nine days from the end of Q3 and the appearance of 'better data' has been sparse and perhaps only in the last week or so. And on Thursday we will get an update of household net worth, but it will be year-old data. Much more current will be Thursday's results announcement from Fonterra.In Australia, they will also release household net worth data, on Friday, but for March this year. They will get PMI updates as well.Globally, the focus will briefly turn to New York for what is expected to be a turbulent moment for the UN with the US already barring some leaders from attending. New York time as the home of the General Assembly may be coming to an end.But economically, there will be many PMI updates out this week. The US will release its PCE data and another Q2-GDP update. And Fed speakers will all be out giving context to last week's rate cut decision. Switzerland and Sweden will be among those reviewing their policy interest rates. And later today, China will review its Loan Prime rates, although no change is expected.China released its August year-to-date foreign direct investment data over the weekend. They said they only attracted ¥507 bln in net foreign investment in those eight months. They said they attracted ¥467 bln in the seven months to July. So that means they gained a net +¥39 bln in August alone and that is a very low +US$5.5 bln and that is only one third of the August 2024 gain. Basically foreign direct investment into China from all sources is close to dead in the water.This doesn't mean that China's economic expansion won't be good in 2025 (over +5%). But it does point out how the two big powers are isolating themselves, with cross-border investment and economic connections all retreating.A recent example is that China's new iron ore buying monopoly has moved to shut out a key Australian blend from BHP. They have other options and are using their heft to try and bring BHP and Australia into line.Separately, Japan's inflation eased to 2.7% in August from 3.1% in July, the level since October 2024. There was a notable slowing in the rise in rice prices, enabling food price inflation to ease to 'only' 7.2% in August from a year ago. Overall prices were up +0.8% in the month with food prices up just +0.3% for the month.Japan's central bank announced the results of its policy rate review late on Friday and as expected left it unchanged at 0.5% at Friday's. This came amid the political uncertainty around the resignation of Prime Minister Ishiba. They also said that it will sell its holdings of exchange-traded funds and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) to the market. Here is their decision.Germany said its producer prices fell an outsized -2.2% in August from a year ago, a deflation sign they will not welcome and extends their deflationary pressure that started in July 2023. But most of that is coming from the lower cost of imported energy with local producer prices basically unchanged.Canada said its August retail sales rose +1%, more than offsetting its July dip. But it isn't clear how much of that is inflation related. But financial markets reacted positively, seeing consumer 'resilience' in the data. (One more -25 bps rate cut is expected in Canada before the end of the year.)The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.14%, up +1 bp from Saturday to be up +7 bps from a week ago. The price of gold will start today at US$3684/oz, up +US$3 from Saturday. That is up +US$36 from a week ago. Silver had another spurt over the weekend, now up over US$43/oz, a weekly gain of +US$1.American oil prices are little-changed at just over US$62.50/bbl and back to where they were a week ago, with the international Brent price still just over US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 58.6 USc and unchanged from Saturday although down a full -1c from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are just under 88.9 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 65.8, unchanged from Saturday but down -100 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$115,509 and very little-changed from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very low at just under +/- 0.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the New Zealand dollar has been re-rated sharply lower overnight, although to be fair only back to levels it was at in April. US benchmark interest rates are rising but the new weaker New Zealand economy is expected to drive the OCR lower than earlier expected.But first in the US, initial jobless claims came in lower than expected at +194,500, a decrease of 10,400 from the prior week when an increase of about that was indicated by seasonal factors. There are now 1.75 mln people on these benefits, +81,000 more than at this time last year.Meanwhile, the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) retreated in August. A retreat was expected but it came in more than twice the expected decline. That means the LEI fell by -2.8% over the six months between February and August, a faster rate of decline than its -0.9% contraction over the previous six-month period. They noted persistently weak manufacturing new order levels and consumer expectations, and warn of increased headwinds ahead.But it is not weak everywhere. The Philly Fed factory survey for September picked up a modest rise in new orders. But firms in the region remain under sharp price pressure unable to pass on the higher prices they are paying.On the farm, the giant American soybean crop is about ready for harvest, and farmers are glum. The Chinese aren't buying and the Washington isn't coming to the rescue with subsidy support. Prices are back to 2016-2018 levels and the rural concern is palpable.In Financial markets, there was a notable less well-supported US Treasury inflation protected (TIPS) bond tender today that resulted in a median yield of 1.65% plus CPI inflation, compared to 1.93% plus CPI at the prior equivalent event three months ago.There were more central bank rate reviews overnight. Taiwan kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.0%. They have an inflation target of 2.0% and their CPI is currently running at 1.6%. Norway cut theirs by -25 bps to 4.0% in what has been called a "hawkish cut". They have inflation at 3.0% with their target at 2.0%. And the Bank of England held theirs at 4% as expected. They have inflation at inflation at 3.8% when their target is 2%. South Africa held at 7%. Inflation there is 3.3% with a preferred rate of 3.0%.China announced that its Boeing and Airbus-competing C919 aircraft has now received more than 1000 orders, mostly domestic but some international orders as well.Australian labour markets stumbled somewhat in August, falling -5,400 when a small +22,000 rise was expected. And the detail is even less positive because full-time employment fell by -40,900 to 10,077,300 people while part-time employment rose by +35,500 to 4,549,200 people. None of these changes were enough to materially change their 4.2% unemployment rate.Container freight rates fell -6% last week from the prior week with all the weakness coming from outbound rates from China. But bulk freight rates rose +3.4% last week to be +14.6% higher than year ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.11%, up +4 bps from yesterday at this time in a steady rise. The price of gold will start today at US$3,643/oz, down -US$15 from yesterday's post Fed dip.American oil prices are down -US$1 at just under US$63.50/bbl, with the international Brent price firmish just under US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.8 USc and down -90 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -70 bps at 88.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -50 bps at 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66, down -50 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,553 and up +1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news financial markets are struggling to make sense of the US Fed's latest rate cut rationale, one that looks infused with new White House politics.First up this morning, the US central bank cut its policy rate by -25 bps to 4.25% as expected, despite noting that American inflation is "somewhat elevated". It is their first reduction in borrowing costs since December 2024.They said they saw economic activity moderating in the first half of the year with job gains slowing and the unemployment rate edging up. But they still called their jobless rate 'low'. At the same time they noted inflation has moved up. But their economic projections showed they expect inflation over the next year to average 3.4%, higher than the latest CPI level of 2.9%.For some reason, this rising inflation, and 'low' unemployment was the basis for cutting their policy rate. Like many core US institutions, partisan politics is now infecting the Fed. Keeping the pressures under cover, the Fed's press release was unusually short this time, likely papering over the pressures being brought to bear. It looks like the only dissenter was the recent White House injected member.Financial markets have reacted however. After being lower ahead of the decisions, the S&P500 went volatile and is back, tracking slightly lower. The bond market also went volatile, and changed its course to push yields higher. The USD fell and the dollar index (DXY) is now at its lowest level since February 2022. Gold pushed up to a new record high - and then fell back. None of these reactions show confidence in the Trump pressures on the Fed.Meanwhile, US mortgage applications jumped sharply last week, a week that included the US Labor Day holiday. Mortgage interest rates dipped -10 bps in the week and borrowers who need to refinance rushed the opportunity. But new borrowing not so much.However, American housing starts tumbled uncomfortably in August, down far more than was anticipated to be -8.5% below July levels, and -6.0% lower than year-ago levels. New house building consents came in -11.1% below year ago levels, so it is unlikely their housebuilding industry will recover any time soon.Overnight, Canada also reviewed its policy interest rate overnight and cut them too, largely as expected. That takes their key rate to 2.5%. They see a weakening in the resilience first shown by Canadian reactions to their bullying from their southern neighbour. They are watching Canadian consumers and businesses becoming more 'cautious'.In Australia later today, we will get the August labour market report where another small gain in jobs is anticipated (+22,000) and their jobless rate is expected to hold at 4.2%.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.07%, up +4 bps from yesterday at this time after some bumpy volatility.The price of gold will start today at US$3,658/oz, down -US$29 from yesterday post the Fed.American oil prices are little-changed at just under US$64.50/bbl, with the international Brent price firmish just under US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 59.7 USc and down -25 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 89.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -5 bps at 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 66.5, down -20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$115,997 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been low at just under +/- 0.8%.Join us at 10:45am this morning for full coverage of the New Zealand Q2-2025 GDP result. Financial markets are expecting a -0.3% dip from Q1 and no year-on-year economic expansion.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news markets now universally expect the American central bank to cut rates tomorrow by -25 bps.But today, the overnight dairy auction brought a much better result than expected with the declines for both WMP and SMP nowhere near as sharp as indicated by the earlier derivatives pricing. That will very much ease the pressure on any farm gate payout forecasts. The detail is interesting. There was notably softer demand from China for WMP, but that was countered by stronger SE Asian demand. Cheddar cheese prices rose because of some unexpected demand from North America, But mozzarella prices dived -9.6% on weak Chinese demand. Overall prices slipped just -0.8% in USD, but there were down a sharpish -2.9% in NZD as the greenback took a tumble overnight.Meanwhile, US retail sales rose in August and by a little more than expected. They were up +5.0% after a +4.1% rise in July. But this data is not inflation-adjusted in the way that other countries report. We will have to wait for sales volume data later in the month.And US industrial production rose in August too, but only up +0.1% from the prior month and only after a -0.4% revised fall in July. Year-on-year it is up +0.9%, about average for 2025, but hardly evidence of manufacturing reshoring.Homebuilder sentiment was flat in August as reported by the NAHB survey. It is remaining at the very low levels we have seen since May, and very much lower than this time last year. They are pinning their hopes on Fed rate cut(s) delivering a changed outlook.And staying in the US, crypto giant Binance looks like its lobbying and support of Trump will see the US Justice Department drop a key oversight requirement in its US$4.3 bln settlement of allegations that it didn't do enough to prevent money laundering. So, pay the money, get no oversight, and go back to enabling money laundering. A real Trump-type deal.Meanwhile, Canadian CPI inflation rose from 1.7% in July to 1.9% in August, a lesser rise than was anticipated. Meanwhile there was a rather sharp fall in housing starts there in August, down -16% from July to 245,791 units from a revised 293,537 in July and well below market expectations of 277,500. But they were still +10% higher than year-ago levels. A rate cut is coming in Canada tomorrow too.In China, there are some signs that Beijing's stimulus could be working. Steel output not only stopped falling, it actually picked up in the first two weeks of September, defying downbeat expectations. And iron ore prices rose too recently.In the EU, industrial production rose more than anticipated in July, although the expectations aren't high.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.03%, down -1 bp from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3,686/oz, up +US$7 from yesterday.American oil prices are up +US$1 at just over US$64.50/bbl, with the international Brent price firmish just over US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 59.9 USc and up +20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 89.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 66.7, little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$116,480 and up +1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been low at just under +/- 0.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news both the US and China are eyeing rate cuts to bolster wavering economies.While all financial market attention is on the US Fed and its Thursday rate review - and market positioning is underway relative to the expected -25 bps cut - there is other economic news being released.The New York Empire factory survey delivered a negative surprise with new order levels falling sharply when they were expected to rise. That drove their overall survey negative when an expansion was anticipated.Across the Pacific, and in an unexpected result, China's retail sales data was released and were expected to have grown faster in August by +3.8%, up from +3.7% in July. Some anticipated a +5% rise. But in the end the rise was only +3.4%, and that was an eight month low.China's August industrial production was up +5.2%, a one year low, good but less than the +5.7% in July and also less than the expected +5.8%. All this was done with only a +1.6% rise in electricity production, and -3.2% fall in the production of fossil fuels, according to these official stats.China's house prices were generally stable in August. There were a few more signs of marginally higher prices in a few more cities for new developments. But the sales prices of pre-owned housing continues its slow droop and the trend is becoming ever more embedded as pressures mount.But probably worse from China was that fixed asset investment hardly rose, up just +0.5% for the eight months from the same period a year ago. It was expected to have risen +1.4% on this ytd basis. August 2025 alone actually came in lower than August 2024, a worrying sign.It is possible that the upcoming review on China's Loan Prime Rates may be cut to bolster their wobbly economic position. These are due for official review at the weekend.In Indonesia, they launched a new US$1 bln economic stimulus package to boost economic growth as a way of stabilising widespread unease about the country's direction.Indian exports softened in August, and their imports did too and by a bit more. That meant the expected -US$30 bln trade deficit for the month was lower than in July and lower than expected.India also had good labour market news with their jobless rate falling to a record low of 5.2% when a small rise was anticipated.In Australia, their National Climate Risk Assessment was released yesterday. They are trying to prioritise and plan how they will adapt and respond. The report says that while the world is already 1.2ºC hotter than during pre-industrial times, because of its sheer land size Australia is warming faster and is 1.5ºC hotter. Australia is experiencing more intense heatwaves on land and sea, rising seas and more frequent coastal flooding. Although the usual suspects remain in denial, a surprising number are now accepting it has become an urgent issue. Insurance premiums, even availability, will be how it will affect most people in Australia.But back with the headline financial market news. Ahead of the US Fed decision, equity markets are buoyant and all-in on optimism, but bond markets are wary, the USD is wavering, and commodity prices are little changed except for precious metals.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.04%, down -2 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,679/oz, up +US$38 from yesterday.American oil prices are up +US$1 at just under US$63.50/bbl, with the international Brent price firmish just on US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 59.7 USc and up +10 b ps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 89.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -10 bps at 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 66.7, little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$114,938 and down -0.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

In this bonus episode of Lean Blog Interviews, Mark Graban is joined by William Harvey, AME 2025 Workshop Chair (and 2026 Conference Chair), to preview the AME Annual Conference coming up in St. Louis, October 6–9, 2025. Topics We Discuss ✅ Why AME is for all continuous improvement leaders—not just manufacturing ✅ The 2025 conference theme: Gateway to the Future – AI and Beyond ✅ How AME is blending AI and people integration into learning and networking ✅ Four key workshop tracks, including coaching, TWI, AI, and process excellence ✅ Mark's own Deming Red Bead Game & Process Behavior Charts workshop Whether you're in healthcare, services, or manufacturing, AME offers a unique chance to learn from practitioners, connect with peers, and gain new insights into operational and leadership excellence.

This week's guest is Don Kieffer. Ron and Don discussed the concept of dynamic work design, their individual takes on AI, Don's book, and more. An MP3 audio version of this episode is available for download here. In this episode you'll learn:  Don's quotes (2:13) His background (5:23) Why Don wrote his book (9:35) What a dynamic work design is (13:46) Don's process (16:34) Some example situations (18:45) What has surprised Don (22:10) Don's take on AI (24:59) Achieving the right balance using dynamic work design (30:02) How it compares to TWI (32:46) Don's final words of wisdom (34:22) Podcast Resources Right Click to Download this Podcast as an MP3 There's Got to Be a Better Way The Most Underrated Skill in Management Get All the Latest News from Gemba Academy Our newsletter is a great way to receive updates on new courses, blog posts, and more. Sign up here. What Do You Think? Have you used dynamic work design before?

What happens when two accomplished psychotherapists discover, well into adulthood, that they have ADHD? In this thought-provoking episode, host Diann Wingert welcomes Lisa Lackey, a licensed therapist, coach, speaker, and community builder, to candidly explore their parallel journeys of late diagnosis, high achievement, and the transformative power of midlife self-discovery.Together, they unpack what it means to awaken to neurodivergence after decades of "successful" living, the intersection of menopause and mental health, and the unique journey women take as they move from striving and struggle toward authenticity and fulfillment in their second act.Guest Bio: Lisa Lackey (she/her)Lisa Lackey is a licensed psychotherapist, coach, and speaker with decades of experience supporting high-achieving individuals facing addiction, anxiety, depression, and now, navigating the complexities of neurodiversity and midlife transitions. After being diagnosed with ADHD later in life, Lisa transformed her approach—creating supportive spaces for women, particularly Black women, to rediscover their authentic selves, reclaim joy, and build community in the second half of life. Lisa is passionate about spiritual growth, legacy work, and helping others write their own rules for fulfillment.Episode Highlights – What You'll LearnWhy ADHD is often missed in high-achieving women, and how self-awareness—and even reading the “right” book—can be a game changer.How hyper-competence, overachievement, and the ability to "make it work" can hide ADHD symptoms for decades.Understanding how hormonal changes bring ADHD and identity struggles front and center for so many women in midlife.Lisa's concept of the “second knowing”- waking up in midlife, letting go of societal shoulds, and connecting to your true purpose and inner wisdom.How women—especially women of color—can build new definitions of success, heal generational burdens, and lift each other up.Connect with Lisa LackeyWebsite: Inside Out RecoveryLinkedIn: Lisa Lackey on LinkedInMentioned by our guest:Driven to Distraction by Ned Hallowell, MD - the book Lisa read in 2 hours & recognized her own ADHD Bell Hooks - Black author, best known for her work on race, feminism & social class Sankofa - a word in the Twi language of Ghana, meaning “to retrieve” If something in this episode struck a chord, share it with a friend, leave us a review, or drop a comment on Spotify about your own late diagnosis and mid life awakening. © 2025 ADHD-ish Podcast. Intro music by Ishan Dincer / Melody Loops / Outro music by Vladimir / Bobi Music / All rights reserved.

What happens when two accomplished psychotherapists discover, well into adulthood, that they have ADHD? In this thought-provoking episode, host Diann Wingert welcomes Lisa Lackey, a licensed therapist, coach, speaker, and community builder, to candidly explore their parallel journeys of late diagnosis, high achievement, and the transformative power of midlife self-discovery.Together, they unpack what it means to awaken to neurodivergence after decades of "successful" living, the intersection of menopause and mental health, and the unique journey women take as they move from striving and struggle toward authenticity and fulfillment in their second act.Guest Bio: Lisa Lackey (she/her)Lisa Lackey is a licensed psychotherapist, coach, and speaker with decades of experience supporting high-achieving individuals facing addiction, anxiety, depression, and now, navigating the complexities of neurodiversity and midlife transitions. After being diagnosed with ADHD later in life, Lisa transformed her approach—creating supportive spaces for women, particularly Black women, to rediscover their authentic selves, reclaim joy, and build community in the second half of life. Lisa is passionate about spiritual growth, legacy work, and helping others write their own rules for fulfillment.Episode Highlights – What You'll LearnWhy ADHD is often missed in high-achieving women, and how self-awareness—and even reading the “right” book—can be a game changer.How hyper-competence, overachievement, and the ability to "make it work" can hide ADHD symptoms for decades.Understanding how hormonal changes bring ADHD and identity struggles front and center for so many women in midlife.Lisa's concept of the “second knowing”- waking up in midlife, letting go of societal shoulds, and connecting to your true purpose and inner wisdom.How women—especially women of color—can build new definitions of success, heal generational burdens, and lift each other up.Connect with Lisa LackeyWebsite: Inside Out RecoveryLinkedIn: Lisa Lackey on LinkedInMentioned by our guest:Driven to Distraction by Ned Hallowell, MD - the book Lisa read in 2 hours & recognized her own ADHD Bell Hooks - Black author, best known for her work on race, feminism & social class Sankofa - a word in the Twi language of Ghana, meaning “to retrieve” If something in this episode struck a chord, share it with a friend, leave us a review, or drop a comment on Spotify about your own late diagnosis and mid life awakening. © 2025 ADHD-ish Podcast. Intro music by Ishan Dincer / Melody Loops / Outro music by Vladimir / Bobi Music / All rights reserved.

Voxify: AI Voice Assistant for Small Business w/ David Duguan   - AZ TRT S06 EP14 (276) 8-3-2025       What We Learned This Week AI Assistant software Aurora for phones Small Business are overwhelmed with many aspects of business from sales to customer service Bad Customer Service costs $ in lost revenue AI Adoption by business is growing as they go from not knowing, to known David is from Ghana in Africa, & tried Soccer, then a DR, to finally land a Tech career       Guest: David Duguan, CEO of  Voxify, https://hellovoxify.com/   About David Duguan David Duguan is a Ghanaian born and raised entrepreneur, founder and CEO of Voxify.  A human innovation company focused on automating and increasing business performance serving the 16 trillion dollar small to medium business market.  He was formerly the CTO of a seven-figure tech startup, Visual Solution Nexus. With experience spanning technical leadership, product management, and team-building, he balances big-picture strategy with focused execution.    He attended Ball State University and Indiana University Purdue University Indianapolis and studied science.  He is also highly skilled in building scalable and efficient technology infrastructure and is a Certified AWS Cloud Architect.  He is multilingual with fluency in English, Twi, Fanti and conversational in French, and has a passion for music, good African food, cars, golf, design, art, and cigars.         Voxify focused on empowering small business to accelerate growth with an AI Powered phone assistant, Aurora. The platform has proven to fuel new revenue streams for business. In fact, one of Voxify's customers, a small window cleaning company recovered $90,000 in previously lost revenue within a few months.   The AI-powered voice automation company transforms how small and mid-sized businesses stay competitive in a fast-moving world. Ultimately the company is redefining business communications for small to medium business which is an addressable US$130billion dollar market opportunity.   Aurora Hub ensures businesses never miss a call, automatically handles customer inquiries, and helps owners focus on what matters most—growing their business. Whether it's capturing leads after hours, streamlining   Respond to Customer Instantly: Keeps businesses connected 24/7 so every call, lead, or inquiry is captured—no more lost business. Boosts Revenue and ROI: Converts missed calls into booked jobs, helping businesses grow without increasing overhead.  Personalized and Customizable AI: Aurora adapts to each business, acting as a seamless extension of staff—not just a tool, but a trusted liaison with real sentiment supporting 29 languages. Delivers Confidence and Control: Owners gain peace of mind knowing communications are handled professionally, even outside of business hours with phone, SMS, web and email. Data at your fingertips: Aurora real-time actionable insights to better understand your business opportunities. Save Time and Money: By handling routine tasks and follow-ups automatically, Aurora reduces the need for extra staff, minimizes scheduling mistakes, and frees up owners to focus on what matters most Keep your customers happy: Aurora ensures prompt, friendly, and accurate responses every time—no hold music, no missed calls. With human-like sentiment and multilingual support, customers feel heard and valued, increasing satisfaction and loyalty across every channel   Aurora AI Assistant - has proven to fuel new revenue streams for business and for one small window cleaning company         Notes:     Voxify       Segment 1   Sam Walton, who started Walmart, said the business has only one boss, the customer.   Every business needs good customer support, but it rarely gets the attention it needs. Many small businesses are overwhelmed, and allways need to make more revenue.   Solution to this problem, introduce Voxify, the AI assistant, that can also help with your internal data. In 2025, data is crucial to a business and helps keep you organized.   There is an adoption level in AI that Voxify needs to get their clients to. Part of the problem is just education and awareness. It's not the fault of the business market. They're overwhelmed and unaware of what solutions are out there.   Voxify product Aurora is easy to use, and gets over the gap of education.   Average business with a solo operator loses calls. They also do not have enough customer insight which creates gaps in their business. Voxify tool solves this. You get the best customer support and you eliminate things customers hate like back-and-forth or voicemail tag.   Clients see the outcome fast, and so to their customers. Voxify's real customers, are actually the customers of their customers.   Company size of a typical client could be an HVAC, home, plumbing or some type of consultant company.   Outcome from their service is an average ROI of 430%, you make more money and stem lost revenue.   Services is like a virtual employee that answers the phones and can book a meeting.   Educate businesses on the use of AI, need for better customer support and how not having this technology means lost revenue.         Segment 2   How Voxify got started: David was working in an architecture startup firm on visuals. The firm had bad customer support. The way their projects worked for payment is half upfront and half at the end. Many payments were late and it was causing internal issues.   They had an assistant and a VA answering the phones. This particular architecture firm was a niche market, hard to train on the phones.   David had a thesis you could use AI and ChatGPT to build the technology for what they needed.   He did this and then validated it with a 200 customers pre-launch. They did lots of research to improve the product.   Voxify is a three-year-old company, and they created their main software Aurora in the spring of 2024.   David is an immigrant, originally from Ghana, West Africa. Had no formal training in technology or business and had to learn of money as he went. Originally thought about playing soccer, then started to train to be a heart surgeon. Neither of these happened so he went into business.     Segment 3   David joked that to succeed in life he was taught you had to be one of three careers, engineer, doctor, or attorney.   He spent time working in biotech, and there learned his love to work on things and do research.   Then he got the job as the CTO at the architecture visual startup, as a cloud architect.   Cloud Architects design technology architecture for virtual machines or databases or software.   “Invent our way out of the box, outside the box, outside the status quo.'   Ask questions based on intention.   Testing Software - Check the text spelling vs the Voice or phonetics.   Had to handle customer complaints, check in 24 hours, and provide good customer service. The data portion is very important.   Example: window cleaning company. AI assistant has to collect info and see what the customer wants. It's hard for these companies to do a customer baseline price. But customers want an estimated service price, and also what expedient fees would cost to do it fast faster. AI service can help with all of this.   Voxify is chasing impact and change to bring down tech barriers. Solve problems with small to medium business and service based companies. Small business is 50% of the GDP in the US.   Bring education on AI to the business community.   Adoption needs two things: Going from you don't know, to you know. Once they know, and have been educated, easier to adopt the technology.   Voxify AI software is $99 a month to start.   Software can be trained very fast within a few minutes, just by scraping a client's website and learning the business. Then over time you talk to the AI and you make changes to the info and answers said on the phone.   Create an SOP doc / standard operating procedure, outline the process of how the assistant needs to talk to your customers         Biotech Shows: https://brt-show.libsyn.com/category/Biotech-Life+Sciences-Science   AZ Tech Council Shows:  https://brt-show.libsyn.com/size/5/?search=az+tech+council *Includes Best of AZ Tech Council show from 2/12/2023   Tech Topic: https://brt-show.libsyn.com/category/Tech-Startup-VC-Cybersecurity-Energy-Science  Best of Tech: https://brt-show.libsyn.com/size/5/?search=best+of+tech   ‘Best Of' Topic: https://brt-show.libsyn.com/category/Best+of+BRT      Thanks for Listening. Please Subscribe to the AZ TRT Podcast.     AZ Tech Roundtable 2.0 with Matt Battaglia The show where Entrepreneurs, Top Executives, Founders, and Investors come to share insights about the future of business.  AZ TRT 2.0 looks at the new trends in business, & how classic industries are evolving.  Common Topics Discussed: Startups, Founders, Funds & Venture Capital, Business, Entrepreneurship, Biotech, Blockchain / Crypto, Executive Comp, Investing, Stocks, Real Estate + Alternative Investments, and more…    AZ TRT Podcast Home Page: http://aztrtshow.com/ ‘Best Of' AZ TRT Podcast: Click Here Podcast on Google: Click Here Podcast on Spotify: Click Here                    More Info: https://www.economicknight.com/azpodcast/ KFNX Info: https://1100kfnx.com/weekend-featured-shows/     Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the Hosts, Guests and Speakers, and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of any entities they represent (or affiliates, members, managers, employees or partners), or any Station, Podcast Platform, Website or Social Media that this show may air on. All information provided is for educational and entertainment purposes. Nothing said on this program should be considered advice or recommendations in: business, legal, real estate, crypto, tax accounting, investment, etc. Always seek the advice of a professional in all business ventures, including but not limited to: investments, tax, loans, legal, accounting, real estate, crypto, contracts, sales, marketing, other business arrangements, etc.  

The Brothers Krynn return to share their fan fiction, The Kenobi Timeline. Inspired by the Legends novel, Secrets of the Jedi, the story follows the what-if scenario of Obi-Wan and Obi-Wan's lover, Siri secretly having a child. From there events unfold unexpectedly, especially with lesser-known companions of Anakin and Obi-Wan who are the focus of the narrative. Each of these characters has a fully fleshed-out backstory with motivations that weave into but never contradict the events of the Prequels. As you listen along, you can refer to the character glossary provided by the Brothers Krynn: Tahlon Kenobi: son of Obi-Wan Kenobi and Siri Tachi (Kenobi), Wields a double-sided Blue lightsaber, his style is Form IV (Ataru variant) Talanis Salazzar: Mandalorian warrior woman, 5 years older than Tahlon. Number one Mandalorian bounty-hunter after Jango Fett Darael Feran: Trandoshan Jedi Master, Wields double-sided Green lightsaber, his style is Form III (Soresu variant), Melirah Stardust's master before leaving the order to join the Jedi, who chose to leave to work with Dooku in the CIS Melirah Stardust: A young Jedi, same age as Anakini with Red hair, born on Tattooine to a Moisture Farmer, she is hot-headed, yet dreams of being a healer. She was Darael Feran's padawan. She is the most gifted seer of her generation. Her style is Form VI (Jar'Kai) (Form IV Ataru Variant) Her right-handed lightsaber is yellow, her left-handed one is blue Mi'kraan Darklighter: A young Jedi, born on the same day, same hour as Melirah, though the two are not related, they share a bond with each other. She is tall and blonde haired, statuesque, the more beautiful of the two. A gentle soul who specializes in diplomacy and teaching younglings. She dislikes violence in all its forms, and has requested to resign her military position, but has been refused. A favourite of Yoda. Her style is Form VI (Jar'Kai) (Form III Soresu variant) Her right-hand lightsaber is Green, her left-hand is Yellow Fergus Feld: One year older than Anakin, a personality like Sturm Brightblade (Dragonlance), is fanatically loyal to the order, and a good friend of Tahlon. He does not trust Anakin and thinks he will turn to the darkside, and in extension dislikes Obi-Wan, a favourite of Yoda, who was abused by his master, Yaduu. His lightsaber style is Form V, and Form VII (Shien/Djem-So and Juyo) his lightsaber colour is blue Grrwyan: A wookie Jedi Tahlon grew up with. He dislikes Tahlon. His style is Form V (Shien/Djem-So) His lightsaber colour is Blue Ivec'leba: A twi'lek initiate Tahlon grew up with, she was sold into slavery, and liberated by Millennia Far'lin. She dies in Tahlon's arms when he is an initiate Jedi Master Chirus: A half-Blind Solustan jedi, who exposed his previous padawan's affair with another jedi, which led her to commit suicide, which traumatized. He later becomes Tahlon's master, and is three years older than Dooku. He dies on Geonosis. His apprentice was a young woman by the name of Yasmina Shen. Her former lover fled with her child to the outer rim, and founded a Jedi cult which her widow and son will end up fighting in the clone wars on the side of the Republic, as Chirus made peace with him three years before he died. Chirus' style is Form VI (Niiman) His colour is Green. Millennia Farland: The daughter of a deceased freedom fighter of Ryloth, Millennia picked up his torch and his movement to liberate all the Twi'leks from the Hutts and the Exchange, she has since become the Senator of Renkloth. (We set the planet in the neighbouring star system next to Ryloth.) She is a firebrand, who is friends of Tahlon, hates the Hutts and consistently pushes for Republican interference in twi'lek affairs, and has become disillusioned with the Senate. She is also given a military commission for the Grand Army of the Republic. Alpha Squad: Tahlon's personal Commando unit. They consist of RC-1515 “Quinze” (Leader), RC-9888 “Zuko” (Demolitions), RC-0109 “Nate” (Weapons) and RC-2898 “Wyatt” (Tech Specialist) RC-1515 “Quinze”: The leader of Alpha Squad, he has a sardonic sense of humour, similar to that of Qui-Gon Jinn. He is also strict, and at times inflexible, and is very shy around beautiful women. He is force sensitive. RC-9888 “Zuko”: The Demolitions expert of Alpha Squad, he is argumentative, severe, who complains a lot, and has a bit of a temper. He is always arguing and fighting with Nate, and yet the two consider each other almost twins. RC-0109 “Nate”: The weapons expert: He is chatty, gabby, cheerful and friendly. Nate loves heavy-grade weaponry. He considers his voice a gift from the force. He also loves show tunes and pretty women. RC-2898 “Wyatt”: The Tech specialist, he is sarcastic, a little vain about his appearance, he has a superiority complex in regards to his IQ, and is the quiet member of the team, even as he considers himself a connoisseur of fine arts and pop stars. ARC-Commander 1139 “Hale”: Commander of the 339th Legion, he serves as Mi'kraan's clone commander. Where she dislikes violence, he revels in it. He is cold and calculating, and a General of the highest quality. He was one of the top graduates from Kamino in strategy and tactics. ARC-Commander 3615 “Boom”: Commander of the 431th Legion. Tahlon's clone commander, his solution to every problem is explosives, bombardment, and even more explosives. He is very good friends with Nate and Zuko. He is fairly cheerful by nature. ARC-Commander 1238 “Krath”: Commander of the 436th Legion. One of the most bloodthirsty clone commanders, and is absolutely ruthless. He believes in no mercy, and has a belief system akin to Canderous Ordo, except he scorns the disloyal and self-serving Mandalorians, and thinks that Clones are superior to them, as he does the Jedi, whom he holds in high regard. He is Melirah's clone commander. ARC-Commander 1138 “Crusher”: Commander of the 189th Legion. Another ruthless clone commander with a cold and impatient side, who believes people have to win his respect, as he hates incompetence, and has no patience for fools. He is the finest clone commander in the galaxy. He serves under Fergus, and has been lauded by Mace Windu. CT-1159 Sergeant “Muln”: A rambunctious, duty-obsessed starfighter pilot in the Republic Navy, he serves under Melirah, and is a quick shot, and impulsive pilot. He is named after Garen Muln, the finest pilot in the galaxy. Darin Pol: A Kel-Dor Martial Artist and security officer who volunteers for the navy, and is put in Melirah's Legion. will continuously reference Justice. He is wise, and the sworn brother of Sergeant Muln Darth Malignus: A Sith Knight trained by a Sith cult that swears itself to Count Dooku and the CIS, he is the top warrior of the cult, and is from the planet Sorrus. His lightsaber is the sith variant of Form VI (Jar'Kai, Form V Shien/Djem-So variant,) He is very much inspired by Dinobot from Beast Wars.

Devori does a war crime against Jeff and makes him watch what surely is the worst film ever watched on this pod.Host segments: existential dread not found; Taylor Lautner is wasted in this one; dying by misadventure vs. murder-bear; it's just shirts and skins; the Twilight to T. Swizzle pipeline.

While Obi-Wan Kenobi desperately pursues General Grievous, Captain Rex recovers from an injury and discovers a deserter from the clone army in this episode of The Clone Wars.   In this fully armed and operational episode of Podcast Stardust, we discuss: Obi-Wan Kenobi's desperate pursuit of General Grievous, Suu, the Twi'lek wife to the deserter clone, Cut Lawquane, the clone that deserted from the Grand Army of the Republic to pursue a life his own choosing, Captain Rex's perception of Cut and their discussions, The attack of the Commando Droids, and  The legacy of this episode of The Clone Wars. For more discussion of The Clone Wars, check out episode 903.   Thanks for joining us for another episode! Subscribe to Podcast Stardust for all your Star Wars news, reviews, and discussion wherever you get your podcasts. And please leave us a five star review on Apple Podcasts.   Find Jay and her cosplay adventures on J.Snips Cosplay on Instagram.   Join us for real time discussion on the RetroZap Discord Server here: RetroZap Discord. Follow us on social media: Twitter | Facebook | Instagram | Pinterest | YouTube. T-shirts, hoodies, stickers, masks, and posters are available on TeePublic. Find all episodes on RetroZap.com.

Nintendo owns CES, The future belongs to the internet & EA disses Sega These stories and many more on this episode of the VGNRTM! This episode we will look back at the biggest stories in and around the video game industry in September 1994.  As always, we'll mostly be using magazine cover dates, and those are of course always a bit behind the actual events. Alex Smith of They Create Worlds is our cohost.  Check out his podcast here: https://www.theycreateworlds.com/ and order his book here: https://www.theycreateworlds.com/book Get us on your mobile device: Android:  https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly92aWRlb2dhbWVuZXdzcm9vbXRpbWVtYWNoaW5lLmxpYnN5bi5jb20vcnNz iOS:      https://podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/video-game-newsroom-time-machine And if you like what we are doing here at the podcast, don't forget to like us on your podcasting app of choice, YouTube, and/or support us on patreon! https://www.patreon.com/VGNRTM Send comments on Mastodon @videogamenewsroomtimemachine@oldbytes.space Or twitter @videogamenewsr2 Or Instagram https://www.instagram.com/vgnrtm Or videogamenewsroomtimemachine@gmail.com Links: If you don't see all the links, find them here:     https://www.patreon.com/posts/131691264 7 Minutes in Heaven: Zero Tolerance Video Version: https://www.patreon.com/posts/131666929     https://www.mobygames.com/game/10115/zero-tolerance/ Corrections: August 1994 Ep - https://www.patreon.com/posts/august-1994-123352781 Ethan's fine site The History of How We Play: https://thehistoryofhowweplay.wordpress.com/     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic:_The_Gathering     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sega     https://www.retroreversing.com/super-famicom-snes-sdk/     https://archive.org/details/st-report             https://patentarcade.com/tag/alpex-computer-v-nintendo 1994: Street Fighter loses its luster     A Warrior of Video Games, The New York Times, September 6, 1994, Tuesday, Late Edition - Final, Distribution: Financial Desk, Section: Section D; ; Section D; Page 1; Column 6; Financial Desk ; Column 6; Byline: By ANDREW POLLACK,     Capcom's video game superhero, Mega Man, debuts this week in nationally syndicated cartoon series; Interactive software giant embraces Hollywood to create precedent-setting entertainment, Business Wire, September 7, 1994, Wednesday     https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0111301/?ref_=fn_all_ttl_2         https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0219458/?ref_=fn_all_ttl_14         https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0115421/?ref_=fn_all_ttl_1         https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USA_Action_Extreme_Team     https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0165046/?ref_=fn_all_ttl_1         Joe Morici - Capcom - https://www.patreon.com/posts/37289815 CD duplicators expand their offerings     "Keeping Track Of All Trades; Replicators Go Beyond The Basics, Branching Out Into Packaging,Distribution And More, Billboard, September 3, 1994, Section: CD REPLICATION; Spotlight; Pg. 86, Byline: BY PAUL VERNA           The Expanding Universe Of Replication; Companies Roll Out The Format Welcome Mat, Opening The Door To CDROM And Others, Billboard, September 3, 1994, Section: CD REPLICATION; Spotlight; Pg. 84, Byline: BY STEVE TRAIMAN" CD piracy explodes in Hong Kong     Software pirates strike gold, South China Morning Post (Hong Kong), September 15, 1994, Section: FEATURE; Pg. 25          https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=eEUNtQprsc0 Best Buy expands     Best Buy Plans Southern Calif. Invasion; Discounter Promises 'New Shopping Experience', Billboard, September 10, 1994, Section: Pg. 5, Byline: BY EILEEN FITZPATRICK Woolworth UK hit hard by drop  in computer software sales     Kingfisher offshoots turn in mixed performance, Financial Times (London,England), September 14, 1994, Wednesday, London, Section: UK Company News; Pg. 25,  Rhino sees slowdown     Rhino runs deeper into red at midway, Financial Times (London,England), September 20, 1994, Tuesday, Section: UK Company News; Pg. 26, Byline: By GARY EVANS Video game slump hits Wong         Video-game slump hits firm, South China Morning Post (Hong Kong), September 30, 1994, Section: BUSINESS; Pg. 18     Raymond Yap - Wong's International, Mondex - https://www.patreon.com/posts/108390526 Playmates shifts to games     Post-TMNT Playmates Goes Vid, Ad Day, September 19, 1994, Section: NEW PRODUCTS; Pg. 17 Software Toolworks becomes Mindscape     THE SOFTWARE TOOLWORKS, INC. BECOMES MINDSCAP , INC., PR Newswire, September 30, 1994, Friday - 19:34 Eastern Time Strauss Zelnick to head BMG     "Ex-IBM chief to head Canadian films group, Financial Times (London,England), September 15, 1994, Thursday, London; Section: International Company News; Pg. 27, Byline: By LOUISE KEHOE and REUTER          Ex-Film Executive Chosen To Head Bertelsmann Unit, The New York Times, September 14, 1994, Wednesday, Late Edition - Final, Distribution: Financial Desk, Section: Section D; ; Section D; Page 8; Column 5; Financial Desk ; Column 5; Byline: By SALLIE HOFMEISTER,            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss_Zelnick Katzenberg out at Disney     Now Playing: Disney in Turmoil, The New York Times, September 23, 1994, Friday, Late Edition - Final, Distribution: Financial Desk, Section: Section D; ; Section D; Page 1; Column 3; Financial Desk ; Column 3; Byline: By BERNARD WEINRAUB with GERALDINE FABRIKANT,     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DisneyWar     https://www.amazon.com/Men-Who-Would-King-DreamWorks/dp/0547520271 Battletech Centers go online     L.A.-Vegas link makes virtual a new reality, The Hollywood Reporter, September 2, 1994, Friday            DISNEY'S GAME LINK, Variety, September 12, 1994 - September 18, 1994, Section: SPECIAL REPORT: INTERTAINMENT; Update; Pg. 33 Nicastro's to co-CEO WMS     Neil D. Nicastro appointed co-chief executive officer of WMS Industries, Business Wire, September 12, 1994, Monday Arnie's Place closes down     Scrappy Arcade Owner Gives Up the Fight, The New York Times, September 20, 1994, Tuesday, Late Edition - Final, Distribution: Metropolitan Desk, Section: Section B; ; Section B; Page 4; Column 1; Metropolitan Desk ; Column 1; ; Biography, Byline: Arnie Kaye, Special to The New York Times, Dateline: WESTPORT, Conn., Sept. 19           https://www.nytimes.com/1994/09/20/nyregion/scrappy-arcade-owner-gives-up-the-fight.html?searchResultPosition=1          http://arniesplacearcade.com/pictures.html Nintendo owns CES     https://archive.org/details/edge-012-september-1994/page/10/mode/2up?view=theater     https://archive.org/details/edge-012-september-1994/page/44/mode/1up?view=theater RPGs, adventures and doom clones abound on pc at ces     https://archive.org/details/computer-gaming-world-issue-122-september-1994/page/22/mode/1up?view=theater      Sega bypasses Japanese distributors     SEGA DECIDES TO SELL DIRECT TO RETAILERS, Computergram International, September 13, 1994 EA disses Saturn     No Headline In Original, Consumer Electronics, September 19, 1994, Section: NOTEBOOK, Vol. 34, No. 38 3DO's next gen system is a dog...     https://archive.org/details/edge-012-september-1994/page/6/mode/2up     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panasonic_M2 ESRB rates its first game     No Headline In Original, Consumer Electronics, September 12, 1994, Section: NOTEBOOK, Vol. 34, No. 37 Mortal Kombat II breaks records     Acclaim's 'Mortal Kombat II' breaks video game and film industry records with $50 million opening week, Business Wire, September 22, 1994, Thursday Sega and Nintendo plan big Xmas ad spends     Sega and Nintendo Prepare to Do Battle Over Holiday Season Sales, Wall Street Journal (3 Star, Eastern (Princeton, NJ), Edition), , September 21, 1994, Business and Industry, Section: Pg. B10; Vol. CCXXIV; No. 57; ISSN: 0099-9660 EA sees CD future     Electronic Arts Shifts Focus to CD-ROM Video Games, Wall Street Journal (3 Star, Eastern (Princeton, NJ) Edition), September 7, 1994, Business and Industry, Section: Pg. B4; Vol. CCXXIV; No. 47; ISSN: 0099-9660 CDi gets new slogan     A NEW STRATEGY FOR CD-I PHILIPS LOWERS PRICE, CHANGES SLOGAN  TO DRIVE SALES, Advertising Age, September 26, 1994, Section: Pg. 14         https://youtu.be/TgtBDVRwKCQ?si=77kblLoNQUYxSl16 China seen as growth market by Nintendo     Nintendo to launch game software production in China, Japan Economic Newswire, SEPTEMBER 6, 1994, TUESDAY, Dateline: TOKYO, Sept. 6 Kyodo     Taiwan firm to compensate Nintendo, Singapore Business Times, September 18, 1994 Sanyo avoids face off with Matsushita         Sanyo to market 32-bit computer game, Report From Japan, September 1, 1994     https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7327486440387289088/ Konix lives     Aiming to succeed where others have failed - MSU's CD systems look set to find their way into homes world-wide / Growth from Technology, Financial Times (London,England), September 8, 1994, Thursday, London, Section: UK Company News; Pg. 30, Byline: By ALAN CANE     https://www.konixmultisystem.co.uk/index.php?id=interviews&content=wyn Myst coming to laseractive     https://segaretro.org/Myst_(Mega_LD)         Pioneer gets LaserActive with 'Myst' software hit; Redford eco entertainment also set for format, The Hollywood Reporter, September 6, 1994, Tuesday, Byline: Scott Hettrick       https://segaretro.org/Legacy Time Warner picks up Rise of the Robots     Time Warner Interactive to release "Rise of the Robots" on CD-ROM and Floppy in United States; TWi also to release "Rise" on 10 interactive platforms in Europe, Business Wire, September 6, 1994, Tuesday, Dateline: MILPITAS, Calif.      Sega bets on Cornhuskers     "Sega Sports opens college football season by predicting this weekend's winners on the new ""College Football National Championship"" video game;Nebraska Cornhuskers take national championship on Sega Sports field, Business Wire, September 2, 1994, Friday" Shaq goes multiple media     ive, EA Hope Shaq Game/CD Promo Hits Nothing But Net, Billboard, September 24, 1994, Section: ARTISTS & MUSIC; Pg. 10, Byline: BY MARILYN A. GILLEN Chaos Studios renamed     Gamepro September 1994 pg. 161      Tensions between Intel and Compaq heat up     Compaq-Intel spat is fascinated dread, Financial Times (London,England), September 20, 1994, Tuesday, Section: Pg. 21, Byline: By LOUISE KEHOE and ALAN CANE PowerPC alliance unravels     BUSINESS TECHNOLOGY; Computing's Bold Alliance Falters, The New York Times, September 14, 1994, Wednesday, Late Edition - Final, Distribution: Financial Desk, Section: Section D; ; Section D; Page 1; Column 3; Financial Desk ; Column 3; Target moving out of PC business     No Headline In Original, Consumer Electronics, September 12, 1994, Section: NOTEBOOK, Vol. 34, No. 37 MOS technology sold         STARTING FROM ASHES OF OLD FIRM COMMODORE'S NORRISTOWN PLANT CAN BE SOLD TO A START-UP COMPANY, U.S. BANKRUPTCY COURT SAID., The Philadelphia Inquirer, September 24, 1994 Saturday FINAL EDITION, Section: BUSINESS; Pg. D01     CONTENDER FOR FIRM ADVERTISES FOR HELP ONE BIDDER FOR COMMODORE IS ALREADY SEEKING WORKERS. THE OTHER BIDDER SAYS IT WANTS THE RESUMES, TOO., The Philadelphia Inquirer, September 22, 1994 Thursday FINAL EDITION, Section: BUSINESS; Pg. C01     Der PC-Pionier stellte Antrag auf Konkurs,  Handelsblatt, September 13, 1994, Business and Industry, Section: Pg. 11; ISSN: 0017-7296 Wing Commander budget to break records     Computer Gaming World, September 1994 pg. 12     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transmetropolitan Activision brings back 2600 classics     ACTIVISION'S NEW ATARI 2600(TM) ANTHOLOGY - A REAL BLAST FROM THE PAST; ORIGINAL BEST-SELLING HITS TO BE AVAILABLE FOR WINDOWS EARLY '95, PR Newswire, September 20, 1994, Tuesday - 15:02 Eastern Time, Section: Financial News Monty Python comes to CDRom     COMPUTER GAMES: THE CIRCUS COMES TO TOWN; Jack Schofield on something very silly a CD-ROM celebration of Monty Python, The Guardian (London), September 22, 1994, Section: THE GUARDIAN ONLINE PAGE; Pg. T7      The Information Super Highway is destined to fail     "The information highway heads for the exit lane, The Age (Melbourne, Australia), September 13, 1994 Tuesday Late Edition, Section: NEWS; Features; Pg. 15" Ads will make the interactive world go round.     into the ring, ADWEEK, September 5, 1994, All Southeast EditionSouthwest EditionWestern Advertising News Edition, Section: SPECIAL REPORT, Byline: By Michael Schrage      The future belongs to content     "start your content engines, ADWEEK, September 5, 1994, All Southeast EditionSouthwest EditionWestern Advertising News Edition, Section: SPECIAL REPORT, byline: By Michael Krantz"      FCC to investigate interactive TV bidders     FCC probing interactive video bidders, The Hollywood Reporter, September 1, 1994, Thursday AT&T pushes The Edge over a ledge     AT&T Scraps Plan to Sell Gear For Video Game, Wall Street Journal (3 Star, Eastern (Princeton, NJ) Edition), September 1, 1994          AT&T PULLS PLUG ON EDGE 16, Consumer Electronics, September 5, 1994, Section: THIS WEEK'S NEWS, Vol. 34, No. 36; Pg. 15          WHEN IT COMES TO NEW MEDIA, AT&T'S NOT PLAYING GAMES; AT THE MOVIES: TWO-WAY TV; RETAILERS SIGN ON TO INTERACTIVE TV; COMPUSERVE TO BE INTERNET PROVIDER; OTHER NEWS: , Advertising Age, September 05, 1994, Section: Pg. 13      BellAtlantic, Time Warner and Viacom face delays     Discord and Delay for Bell Atlantic Network, The New York Times, September 9, 1994, Friday, Late Edition - Final, Section: Section D; ; Section D; Page 1; Column 3; Financial Desk ; Column 3; Byline: By EDMUND L. ANDREWS, Compuserve moves to the internet     WHEN IT COMES TO NEW MEDIA, AT&T'S NOT PLAYING GAMES; AT THE MOVIES: TWO-WAY TV; RETAILERS SIGN ON TO INTERACTIVE TV; COMPUSERVE TO BE INTERNET PROVIDER; OTHER NEWS: , Advertising Age, September 05, 1994, Section: Pg. 13# Online services days numbered     The Executive Computer; In the On-Line Market, the Name of the Game Is Internet, The New York Times, September 25, 1994, Sunday, Late Edition - Final, Distribution: Financial Desk, Section: Section 3; ; Section 3; Page 7; Column 1; Financial Desk ; Column 1; XBAND to launch as Genesis exclusive     Sega and Catapult sign agreement to support XBAND game modem and network service, Business Wire, September 6, 1994, Tuesday,                   Catapult Video-Game Modem Gets a Boost From Sega, Nintendo, Wall Street Journal (3 Star, Eastern (Princeton, NJ) Edition), September 7, 1994, Section: Pg. B8; Vol. CCXXIV; No. 47; ISSN: 0099-9660     T-HQ announces debt and equity financings, Business Wire, September 19, 1994, Monday Playstation to go online... in France     Sony, France Telecom link in video game business, Japan Economic Newswire, SEPTEMBER 16, 1994, FRIDAY CDRom gets online updates     RealTime Moving Quickly Into Sports Arena; BMG, Nederlander Behind New CD-ROM Supplier, Billboard, September 17, 1994, Section: THE ENTER*ACTIVE FILE; Pg. 68, Byline: MARILYN A. GILLEN Mondex aims to revolutionize payments     A Visionary Pushes Toward the Cashless Revolution, American Banker, September 15, 1994, Business and Industry, Section: Pg. 12; Vol. 159; No. 178; ISSN: 0002-7561        https://www.patreon.com/posts/108390526?collection=481857 Futurist sees internet as savior of democracy     Books and Authors, The Associated Press, September 2, 1994, Friday, BC cycle, Section: Entertainment News, Byline: By ELIZABETH WEISE, Associated Press Writer           https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318765343_The_Virtual_Community_Homesteading_on_the_Electronic_Frontier UK magazine market collapses     GAMES MAGAZINES: A MILLION CRUEL CUTS, The Guardian (London), September 22, 1994, Section: THE GUARDIAN ONLINE PAGE; Pg. T3      Atari and Sega bury the hatchet     Sega and Atari Announce Longterm Licensing Agreements, Equity, Investment, and Resolution of Disputes, Business Wire, September 28, 1994, Wednesday Nintendo sues TSMC         NINTENDO FI ES SUIT AGAINST TAIWAN COMPANY TO STOP COUNTERFEITING OF VIDEO GAME SEMICONDUCTOR CHIPS, PR Newswire, September 13, 1994, Tuesday - 16:47 Eastern Time     919  921     COUNTERFEIT CHIP SUIT, Consumer Electronics, September 19, 1994, Section: THIS WEEK'S NEWS, Vol. 34, No. 38     https://archive.org/details/AtariCorporationAnnualReport1994 Nintendo wins in Taiwan Court     Taiwan firm to compensate Nintendo, Singapore Business Times, September 18, 1994 9th Circuit rebukes Apple     Apple's Copyright Suit Against Rivals Rejected, The Associated Press, September 19, 1994, Monday, AM cycle, Section: Business News, Byline: By BOB EGELKO, Associated Press Writer      George Forman KOs Power Punch II in court     No Headline In Original, Consumer Electronics, September 5, 1994, Section: NOTEBOOK, Vol. 34, No. 36; Pg. 12      Acclaim mocap comes to the big screen     Acclaim Motion Capture Technology Tapped For Warner Bros. 'Batman Forever'; Special Effects to Employ Motion Capture, Business Wire, September 1, 1994, Thursday        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZrZK9-stCM Watch the future of computing on your TV     https://archive.org/details/jcnhomecomputing/Home.Computing.1.XviD-VHSRip.avi          PCTV, INC. ANNOUNCES NEW @OME O FICE COMPUTER SHOWS AS PART OF FALL LINEUP OF TV PROGRAMS, PR Newswire, September 13, 1994, Tuesday - 06:57 Eastern Time Photoshop gets layered     Byte September 1994 pg. 30 Pulp Fiction wins Palm D'Or     THE MOVIE JUNKIE; The critics hated it, the audience hurled abuse: stand by for Quentin Tarantino's Pulp Fiction, The Guardian (London), September 19, 1994, Section: THE GUARDIAN FEATURES PAGE; Pg. T8 Recommended Links: The History of How We Play: https://thehistoryofhowweplay.wordpress.com/ Gaming Alexandria: https://www.gamingalexandria.com/wp/ They Create Worlds: https://tcwpodcast.podbean.com/ Digital Antiquarian: https://www.filfre.net/ The Arcade Blogger: https://arcadeblogger.com/ Retro Asylum: http://retroasylum.com/category/all-posts/ Retro Game Squad: http://retrogamesquad.libsyn.com/ Playthrough Podcast: https://playthroughpod.com/ Retromags.com: https://www.retromags.com/ Games That Weren't - https://www.gamesthatwerent.com/ Sound Effects by Ethan Johnson of History of How We Play. Copyright Karl Kuras

The Brothers Krynn return to share their fan fiction idea, The Kenobi Timeline. Inspired by the Legends novel, Secrets of the Jedi, the story follows the what-if scenario of Obi-Wan and Obi-Wan's lover, Siri secretly having a child. From there events unfold unexpectedly, especially with lesser-known companions of Anakin and Obi-Wan who are the focus of the narrative. Each of these characters has a fully fleshed-out backstory with motivations that weave into but never contradict the events of the Prequels. Want more energy and essential vitamins for your day but want to limit your caffeine intake? Visit https://www.magicmind.com/swlc to get up to 48% off with my code: SWLC20 As you listen along, you can refer to the character glossary provided by the Brothers Krynn: Tahlon Kenobi: son of Obi-Wan Kenobi and Siri Tachi (Kenobi), Wields a double-sided Blue lightsaber, his style is Form IV (Ataru variant) Talanis Salazzar: Mandalorian warrior woman, 5 years older than Tahlon. Number one Mandalorian bounty-hunter after Jango Fett Darael Feran: Trandoshan Jedi Master, Wields double-sided Green lightsaber, his style is Form III (Soresu variant), Melirah Stardust's master before leaving the order to join the Jedi, who chose to leave to work with Dooku in the CIS Melirah Stardust: A young Jedi, same age as Anakini with Red hair, born on Tattooine to a Moisture Farmer, she is hot-headed, yet dreams of being a healer. She was Darael Feran's padawan. She is the most gifted seer of her generation. Her style is Form VI (Jar'Kai) (Form IV Ataru Variant) Her right-handed lightsaber is yellow, her left-handed one is blue Mi'kraan Darklighter: A young Jedi, born on the same day, same hour as Melirah, though the two are not related, they share a bond with each other. She is tall and blonde haired, statuesque, the more beautiful of the two. A gentle soul who specializes in diplomacy and teaching younglings. She dislikes violence in all its forms, and has requested to resign her military position, but has been refused. A favourite of Yoda. Her style is Form VI (Jar'Kai) (Form III Soresu variant) Her right-hand lightsaber is Green, her left-hand is Yellow Fergus Feld: One year older than Anakin, a personality like Sturm Brightblade (Dragonlance), is fanatically loyal to the order, and a good friend of Tahlon. He does not trust Anakin and thinks he will turn to the darkside, and in extension dislikes Obi-Wan, a favourite of Yoda, who was abused by his master, Yaduu. His lightsaber style is Form V, and Form VII (Shien/Djem-So and Juyo) his lightsaber colour is blue Grrwyan: A wookie Jedi Tahlon grew up with. He dislikes Tahlon. His style is Form V (Shien/Djem-So) His lightsaber colour is Blue Ivec'leba: A twi'lek initiate Tahlon grew up with, she was sold into slavery, and liberated by Millennia Far'lin. She dies in Tahlon's arms when he is an initiate Jedi Master Chirus: A half-Blind Solustan jedi, who exposed his previous padawan's affair with another jedi, which led her to commit suicide, which traumatized. He later becomes Tahlon's master, and is three years older than Dooku. He dies on Geonosis. His apprentice was a young woman by the name of Yasmina Shen. Her former lover fled with her child to the outer rim, and founded a Jedi cult which her widow and son will end up fighting in the clone wars on the side of the Republic, as Chirus made peace with him three years before he died. Chirus' style is Form VI (Niiman) His colour is Green. Millennia Farland: The daughter of a deceased freedom fighter of Ryloth, Millennia picked up his torch and his movement to liberate all the Twi'leks from the Hutts and the Exchange, she has since become the Senator of Renkloth. (We set the planet in the neighbouring star system next to Ryloth.) She is a firebrand, who is friends of Tahlon, hates the Hutts and consistently pushes for Republican interference in twi'lek affairs, and has become disillusioned with the Senate. She is also given a military commission for the Grand Army of the Republic. Alpha Squad: Tahlon's personal Commando unit. They consist of RC-1515 “Quinze” (Leader), RC-9888 “Zuko” (Demolitions), RC-0109 “Nate” (Weapons) and RC-2898 “Wyatt” (Tech Specialist) RC-1515 “Quinze”: The leader of Alpha Squad, he has a sardonic sense of humour, similar to that of Qui-Gon Jinn. He is also strict, and at times inflexible, and is very shy around beautiful women. He is force sensitive. RC-9888 “Zuko”: The Demolitions expert of Alpha Squad, he is argumentative, severe, who complains a lot, and has a bit of a temper. He is always arguing and fighting with Nate, and yet the two consider each other almost twins. RC-0109 “Nate”: The weapons expert: He is chatty, gabby, cheerful and friendly. Nate loves heavy-grade weaponry. He considers his voice a gift from the force. He also loves show tunes and pretty women. RC-2898 “Wyatt”: The Tech specialist, he is sarcastic, a little vain about his appearance, he has a superiority complex in regards to his IQ, and is the quiet member of the team, even as he considers himself a connoisseur of fine arts and pop stars. ARC-Commander 1139 “Hale”: Commander of the 339th Legion, he serves as Mi'kraan's clone commander. Where she dislikes violence, he revels in it. He is cold and calculating, and a General of the highest quality. He was one of the top graduates from Kamino in strategy and tactics. ARC-Commander 3615 “Boom”: Commander of the 431th Legion. Tahlon's clone commander, his solution to every problem is explosives, bombardment, and even more explosives. He is very good friends with Nate and Zuko. He is fairly cheerful by nature. ARC-Commander 1238 “Krath”: Commander of the 436th Legion. One of the most bloodthirsty clone commanders, and is absolutely ruthless. He believes in no mercy, and has a belief system akin to Canderous Ordo, except he scorns the disloyal and self-serving Mandalorians, and thinks that Clones are superior to them, as he does the Jedi, whom he holds in high regard. He is Melirah's clone commander. ARC-Commander 1138 “Crusher”: Commander of the 189th Legion. Another ruthless clone commander with a cold and impatient side, who believes people have to win his respect, as he hates incompetence, and has no patience for fools. He is the finest clone commander in the galaxy. He serves under Fergus, and has been lauded by Mace Windu. CT-1159 Sergeant “Muln”: A rambunctious, duty-obsessed starfighter pilot in the Republic Navy, he serves under Melirah, and is a quick shot, and impulsive pilot. He is named after Garen Muln, the finest pilot in the galaxy. Darin Pol: A Kel-Dor Martial Artist and security officer who volunteers for the navy, and is put in Melirah's Legion. will continuously reference Justice. He is wise, and the sworn brother of Sergeant Muln Darth Malignus: A Sith Knight trained by a Sith cult that swears itself to Count Dooku and the CIS, he is the top warrior of the cult, and is from the planet Sorrus. His lightsaber is the sith variant of Form VI (Jar'Kai, Form V Shien/Djem-So variant,) He is very much inspired by Dinobot from Beast Wars.

Many thanks to listener Joshua for this brilliant episode idea - what was the Halcyon like for non-humans? We immediately thought of Twi'leks, thanks to our own Captain Ma'Li Ficent. As one of Star Wars' most beloved alien species, Twi'leks brought unique magic to the Galactic Starcruiser experience. We tracked down three renowned Twi'lek cosplayers who sailed the Halcyon in full cosplay, and their stories are extraordinary. From surprising cast member interactions to behind-the-scenes moments you won't believe, discover how becoming a Twi'lek transformed their voyage into something truly special. Heroes of the Halcyon on InstagramTheme Music ("Digital Discourse") by Yellow BarrelSend your email to heroesofthehalcyon@gmail.com - we'd love to hear from you about your journeys, episode suggestions, or just to say hi!