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After yesterday's episode about the unchosen 450 actors & actresses who were in fact nominated for the AFI's Top 100 Stars list, now it's time to begin a quest. I will review the films of MANY of the 180-ish folks who this podcast has never discussed. And since Eddie Cantor, Ann Sothern, George Murphy & the Nicholas Brothers are in Kid Millions and the Three Stooges are in Soup To Nuts, I'm knocking 5 names off the "must-cover" list in 1 double episode! This 715th show on Have You Ever Seen digs into the musical-comedy adventure about Cantor inheriting a lot of money (Kid), then it's time for a zany goof about romance & chowderhead firefighters (Nuts). So strap in to hear about these two B&W romps from the '30s as my quest to talk about the previously-unreviewed AFI acting nominees takes flight. Well, Actually: at around the 16-minute mark, the line should have been "these are white actors playing Muslim Africans", not "Muslim Americans". Subscribe! Then you can't miss out when I post shows like this on days other than Monday. Rate and review Have You Ever Seen as well. And I finally posted some new reviews on Letterboxd not long ago! Look for "RyanHYES". Contact me with your OWN thoughts about the films I discuss: "ryan-ellis" on Bluesky, "@moviefiend51" on Twi-x and you can email me at "haveyoueverseenpodcast@gmail.com".
Somehow, MAUL returned! After an announcement at Star Wars Celebration Japan (which featured a trailer), Lucasfilm has finally released the first Teaser Trailer for MAUL – SHADOW LORD! This is a surprise to be sure, but a welcome one, especially after the news of Kathleen Kennedy stepping down, and Dave and Lynwen's ascension.Today we discuss this trailer, speculate on what might happen (and who might show up), and gush about the absolutely gorgeous art (Star Wars animation always knocks it out of the park!). This show features a new Twi'lek Jedi Padawan character called Devon Izara, who has had the whole fandom wondering if this is a canon iteration of the Sith Lady from the Expanded Universe, Darth Talon.Set in the planet Janix, and starring Sam Witwer as Maul, Shadow Lord was created by Dave Filoni and developed by Dave and Matt Michnovetz with Brad Rau is supervising director. Star Wars: Maul – Shadow Lord premieres on Disney+ April 6, 2026.• • •TRIAD Of The FORCE is a STAR WARS+ podcast hosted by Gus, Nani, & Chase—Puerto Rican and queer creators sharing deep dives, and heartfelt conversations from a galaxy far, far away. Featured on the STAR WARS CELEBRATION Podcast Stage (2022 & 2023), we explore STAR WARS, fantasy, comic books, and other POP-culture media honestly. We engage in inclusive commentary across film, TV, books, comics, and beyond with humor, critical analysis, and cultural perspective (without the toxicity).Follow TRIAD Of The FORCE at:BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/triadoftheforce.bsky.socialInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/triadoftheforce/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/TriadoftheForce/If you like us, get some merch and help the channel:TeePublic: https://www.teepublic.com/user/triad-of-the-force• • •Acknowledgement: The Intro and Outro music is the Triad of the Force Theme, composed and performed by Grushkov with full permission for use by Grushkov (https://linktr.ee/Grushkov).• • •This channel is not affiliated in any way with Lucasfilm Ltd. LLC, The Walt Disney Company, or any of their affiliates or subsidiaries.
That's a Wrap! In a quick ice breaker, Dan, Peter and Stu excitedly sell their ideas of the perfect Star Wars New Year's Eve Party to Jez. One of them harps on about Twi'leks, one needs some naughty chemicals to assist with a rave at Mon Mothma's and Dan wants to spend New Year's at Canto Bight from the Last Jedi! Then in this end of year special the lads take a look back at the Star Wars highlights of 2025, covering events, Disney+ shows, some collecting high points and their favourite podcast episodes of the 35 that have been produced! This section is a cracking taster menu of the best of 2025. They'll also be briefly looking towards 2026 and making a few podcast promises. Peter promises a new series of shows, Jez promises a new series of shows, Dan promises to continue with the awesome Those Old Fossils and Stu briefly quits, then promises a new series of shows! You won't want to miss this light hearted reflection of 365 days worth of Star Wars fandom. The boys have been busy!!
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Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news precious metals prices are zooming higher today, most to new all-time heights.But first in the US, the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is back being tracked following the shutdown and it shows activity still notably lower than its long run trend, even if it did improve in September from August. It is barely back to the same drag level it was a year ago.American holiday retail sales for November and December are projected to grow between +3.7% and +4.2% over the same months last year, a weaker gain than last year's +4.3% increase. Revenue growth in November was about +1% compared to November 2024, with flat unit demand. Consumers are reportedly cautious, focusing spending on necessities, and higher-income consumers are driving most of the spending, while lower-income consumers remain constrained. Inflation-adjusted sales volumes are probably not growing. Ecommerce is a bright spot, with Deloitte forecasting a +7% to +9% growth for the season.In Canada, their November PPI came in +6.1% higher than a year ago. But this result was twisted by the very sharp run-up in the costs of precious metals, and diesel (after US sanctions on Russian diesel twisted their demand for Canadian product). But even without those, they would have had more than a +4% rise.In Japan at one point yesterday, their 10 year government bond hit 2.10% and its highest level since 1999. It has eased slightly since, but this has had a depressive impact on the Yen, and there is market talk of intervention now.In China, their central bank held key lending rates at record lows for a seventh consecutive month in December, as expected. Earlier they had left their seven-day reverse repo rate unchanged at 1.4% and this is now their main policy rate. They seem to have less intentions for more monetary stimulus as the economy looks like it is on track to meet this year's growth target of "around 5%".And staying in China, they have slapped some substantial duty penalties on certain EU dairy products. The claim is that the French and Dutch subsidise their production. Although these new duties are relatively narrowly targeted, it will be a major trade escalation in the eye of the EU.And we should also note that India and New Zealand have agreed a new substantial free trade deal. Almost all New Zealand business groups have welcomed the breakthrough, which the Indians are using as a benchmark for deep agreements with other countries. But 2026 is election year and one party, NZ First, is using the deal to promote its anti-immigration credentials.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.17%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4437/oz, and up +US$99 from yesterday and easily a new record high. Silver has surged to, up +US$2 to just under US$69/oz, and also a new record high. Platinum hit US$2115/oz earlier today, and approaching it 2008 record highs.American oil prices are up almost +US$1.50 from yesterday at just under US$58/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just under US$62/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from yesterday, now at just under 58 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 87.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 62.1, and up +30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,163 and up +0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just under +/- 1.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. We are taking a short break and we will be back on Monday, December 29 with another update.
Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news we are ending 2025 with more signs of the consequences of the Trump twist and the fading of American economic dominance. But it may not be to China where the economic power flows.This short week is critical worldwide for retail sales, but discounting early is well set in most markets so there are fears the post-holiday 'sales' could bring anticlimactic results. And it hasn't been helped by a rambling and vengeful performance by Trump in a speech pre-billed as an indicator of economic 'progress'. Markets cast a sceptical eye on it on Friday (US time) with US bond yields rising after it.This week will bring US durable goods order updates and industrial production updates in the US, more regional Fed factory surveys, and the Conference Board's survey of sentiment. None are expected to be very strong. But the 'official' update for Q3 GDP for the US is expected to show the result Trump is looking for.China will be closeted in another national party conference with economic topics high on their agenda. Japan will release a range of data expected to be mixed. There will be more data from Malaysia, Singapore and Taiwan. Australia has concluded its 2025 economic releases, but New Zealand will have its lending and funding data releases for November on Tuesday.Over the weekend, China released its foreign direct investment data and it turned higher in October, up a net +US$6.6 bln from September and higher than the year-ago gain of +US$6.2 bln, although that still leaves the year-to-date level -7.5% lower and extending the streak of contractions that began in May 2023. The current gains are actually tiny for a country the size of China. Later today they will review their official loan prime rates, but no changes is expected from the current record low levels.In Japan, and as clearly signaled, their central bank moved their policy rate up by +25 bps to 0.75% late on Friday. It was their second hike this year after their similar January move. Policymakers there see extended wage inflation and rising company profits. But it did point out that real interest rates remain significantly negative and that overall financial conditions are 'broadly accommodative'. Markets took these signals to be slightly more hawkish than expected and pushed the Japanese 10 year bond yield higher, to a twenty year high.Malaysia's booming economy is now drawing in imports faster than the rise in their exports, and it was barely able to post a trade surplus in November. Exports were up +7.0% from a year ago, but imports jumped at more than twice that rate, up +15.8%.In the US, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey was revised lower in December although up marginally from November's unusual low. It is however -28% lower than year-ago levels. Both measures for current conditions and expectations were revised down. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the year-ahead were revised up to 4.2% from 4.1% in the November survey. Perceived 'affordability' issues are building.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.15%, unchanged from this time Saturday but down -5 bps from this time last week.The price of gold will start today at US$4338/oz, and down -US$13 from Saturday, but up +US$44/oz from a week ago.American oil prices are little-changed from Saturday at just on US$56.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just on US$60.50/bbl and up +50 USc. From a week ago these prices are down -US$1/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Saturday, now at just on 57.6 USc which is down -40 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 87.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 61.8, little-changed from Saturday, down -30 bps from a week ago.The bitcoin price starts today at US$88,354 and up +1.2% from this time Saturday. It is down -2.1% from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low, at just under +/- 0.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news there were many central banks reviewing their settings overnight and most stayed unchanged.But first up today we can report a considerable surprise in the November CPI result. Markets had expected a 3.1% rate. But there was no October reading due to shutdown problems and this may have affected the collecting of November data. In any case the official November result was published as a rise of 2.7%, a sharply lower level no analyst saw coming. Apparently, falling rents were a big part of the retreat. (And don't forget, the last US BLS boss who delivered unwelcome results was fired by the Administration.). In any event, financial markets have taken it at face value, accepting there is no affordability problem, Just as the President has claimed.And official US initial jobless claims came in at the expected +255,000, so there are now 1.882 mln people on these benefits, fractionally more than the 1.864 mln in the same week a year ago.In non-Administration controlled data, the news isn't so bright. The Philly Fed's December factory survey fell sharply again, retreating as it has done in the past two months. And this came as new orders actually rose, although from a low level. It is a survey that has reported 'future conditions' very positive for more than a year now, but also reporting 'current conditions languishing.The similar Kansas City Fed factory survey fell into a mild contraction in December, a sharpish fall from November. Again, those surveyed were still upbeat probably because new orders ticked higher. But more companies are reporting higher prices paid for supplies.In Canada, they are reporting rising SME business optimism, and the highest since May 2022.The Taiwan central bank held its policy rate unchanged at 2% overnight. The ECB held their unchanged too at 2.15%.Sweden held their 1.75% rate unchanged as well at their overnight meeting. Norway held their at 4.0%. But the English central bank had a need to cut theirs, by -25 bps to 3.75%, in a split 5-4 decision (the four dissenters wanted no cut.) Japan will review its policy rate later today and is widely expected to raise it by +25 bps.In Australia, inflation expectations rose to 4.7% in December from 4.5% in November, and have now been at or above 4.5% for six of the past seven months.Global freight rates for containerised cargoes rose +12% last week to be -43% lower than year-ago levels. The latest rise was driven by very much stronger demand in the outbound China to the US rates. Separately, bulk cargo freight rates fell -13% last week but are now +50% higher than year ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.13%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4367/oz, and up another +US$35 from yesterday, and which we make as a new record high. Silver is at US$65/oz and sharply back off its record high.American oil prices are slightly firmish from yesterday at just under US$56.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is still just under US$60/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday, still at just on 57.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are -20 bps softer at 87.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 62, and again little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$88,092 and up +1.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate, at just on +/- 2.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.
Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news we are entering the end of year shadow of economic releases, but there are still some important things to come. And the upcoming sentiment signals as the holidays approach are not overly optimistic. Today tech industry concerns are weighing on equity markets.Elsewhere, US mortgage applications fell -3.8% last week, the biggest dip in a month. Applications to purchase a home declined -2.8% while home loan refinance fell -3.6%. Benchmark mortgage interest rates were little-changed.More Fed speakers were out overnight, with a Trump favourite (Christopher Waller) saying US rates can be cut by -1%. Waller is a candidate for a Trump nomination to replace Powell. But Atlanta Fed boss Bostic says any rate cuts now will just fuel inflation which he sees as already too high.In Canada, foreign investment in Canadian securities in October rose to their highest level since March 2022, a sharp rise from the high September level and far above what analysts were expecting.And we should note that the Bank of Canada is moving ahead with its plan to support an official stablecoin.Also in Canada, we should note they had their biggest dip in population in Q3-2025 as they effectively shut their doors to immigrants. It was their first-ever drop (outside the pandemic)In Japan, machinery orders, (but excluding volatile sectors such like ships and electric power systems), jumped +7.0% in October from September's good 4.2% gain. This is even better than expected, because a -2.3% decline was anticipated. The October level was also the highest since March.So it won't be a surprise to know that Japan's exports rose +6.1% in November from a year ago, the third consecutive monthly gain and better than the expected rise. In fact, it was the fastest pace in export shipments since February, and was driven by demand from the US who have just accepted that they have to pay their tariff-taxes. This gain pushed Japan back into a trade surplus.In Indonesia, their central bank left its policy rate unchanged in its meeting yesterday at 4.75%, as expected. They see inflation holding in its +/-1% target around 2.5%. In Europe there will be monetary policy decisions tonight, with the ECB expected to hold and the Bank of England to cut.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.16%, little-changed from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4332/oz, and up +US$35 from yesterday, and touching its record highs. Silver is at US$66.50/oz and a new record high. We should also keep an eye on platinum too, also near its recent record highs. 2026 could be "interesting" for precious metals.American oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday at just over US$56/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$1 at just on US$60/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday, at just on 57.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are +20 bps firmer at 87.5 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 49.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just on 62, and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$86,671 and down -1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate, at just on +/- 2.1%.Join us at 10:45am this morning when we will be reporting the Q3-2025 change in economic activity (GDP). Markets are expecting a +1.3% rise from a year ago, a +0.9% from Q2. And they are expecting Q2 to be revised up. Material variations from that will have financial market implications.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news of some messy US data which Wall Street is nervous about, but elsewhere most other countries are on the improve (China excepted).But first up today, the overnight dairy auction was another bad one with prices down -4.4% in USD terms and down -5.4% in NZD terms. The key WMP price fell -5.7% in USD terms. This is now serious. The recent downgrades to current season milk payout forecasts are going to get looked at again by the analysts. Since the peak in May, theses prices have dropped -25% and are down -17% from this time last year. We are in a full bear market for dairy prices. Making it worse is that we are now just past the seasonal peak of the milk curve, which will take the top off the country's export earnings. Yesterday's MPI SOPI is already out of date, and even that wasn't very positive about earnings from dairy exports.The catch up update of the US labour market didn't really reveal much or surprise many. It reported a steep drop in October and a half-bounce-back in November. The net result is a loss of -41,000 jobs over the period of the US Government shutdown. Not seasonally adjusted, there was a good +920,000 rise in employment from September to November, but this is far less than the +1,355 mln in the same 2024 period. Despite their unemployment rate rising to 4.6% and a four year high, their labour market isn't a net drag yet, but it is now getting close.The more current weekly jobs report from ADP recorded a small gain last week, but the prior week's gain was revised sharply lower.But overall, this latest jobs data is messy, and probably no help to the Fed when setting monetary policyMeanwhile US retail sales in October showed no gain from September to maintain their year-on-year +3.8% gain, just marginally ahead of current US inflation. These latest results have been dragged lower by declining car sales.The flash American December factory PMI came in positive, but only just and a six month low.Across the Pacific in Japan, their flash December PMI reported an increase in new orders supporting a rise in business activity. But their factory PMI isn't quite yet at expansion despite the improvement.In India, their factory PMI shows output rising strongly, but the momentum is showing signs of slowing. Most countries would love PMI's like they have however.In the Eurozone, business activity rose again in December to complete full calendar year of expansion. But their factory PMI dipped slightly to take the top off the result. Hurting was the re-emergence of inflationary pressure.The latest S&P Global PMI for Australia for December finds the factory sector expanding in a minor way and a little faster than in November helped by expanding new order levels. But the service sector is now expanding slower, in fact barely expanding.Staying in Australia, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey of consumer confidence retreated in December and by more than expected and into net negative territory. In fact, no change was expected. The survey found a sharp change in what is expected for mortgage rates, going from a expecting a fall, to now expecting them to rise. Views on the economic outlook and household finances have deteriorated, but those surveyed are still confident about the Australian labour market. Views on homebuying and house prices have been pared back.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.16%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is still at +67 bps. The price of gold will start today at US$4297/oz, and up +US$2 from yesterday.American oil prices are down another -US$1 at just under US$55.50/bbl and a new five year low, while the international Brent price is now just on US$59/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday, at just on 57.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are +10 bps firmer at 87.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62, and littel-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,541 and up +1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just on +/- 1.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news the US Fed is struggling with its diverging views ahead of tomorrow's catch up non-farm payrolls report. Wall Street is dipping in anticipation. The oil price is falling on concerns demand is weakening.Overnight, two Fed speakers were out delivering different views. Trump insert Stephen Miran essentially called affordability concerns overblown and reckoned the data doesn't show an affordability problem. Whereas NY Fed boss John Williams sees 'resilience' and on-going price pressures.Meanwhile, the latest regional Fed factory survey is from the New York region and it turned into a contraction in December after two months of expansion. It was an unexpected turn lower. New orders held steady, and inflation pressures eased, but activity declined noticeably.On the home building front, the widely watched national survey of home builders remained glum, even if it did improve marginally. This measure stayed in contraction for the 20th consecutive month. Builders are contending with higher construction costs, economic and tariff risks, and muted demand from buyers who cite affordability concerns.In Canada, their CPI inflation came in at 2.2% in the year to November, unchanged from October. However, food prices rose 4.2%. Meanwhile, Canadian housing starts rose in November, consistent with the building permit trend we have noted before. But there are questions about whether that will last because November real estate sales were lower on volume and lower in price.In Japan, a series of Q4-2025 business sentiment surveys show good or rising confidence levels, now up to a four year high. This is true for large firms (recall our reports of how they are winning against the Trump tariff-taxes), the local services sector, and now a good jump for small businesses.In China, new home prices across their 70 major cities dropped -2.4% in November from a year ago, deepening from a 2.2% decline in the previous two months. The latest results are the 29th consecutive month of price drops and the steepest pace since August. Beijing is involved in a long struggle to overcome the seemingly endless weakness in their property sector. The price declines for housing resales are deeper, but not more sharp, even if they are just relentless.China's retail sales were notably weak in November, rising just +1.3% from a year ago and far below the expected +2.9% (with some expecting a +3.3% gain). This is a real cold-water moment for the Chinese economy and will undoubtedly bring emergency actions from Beijing. One reason for the weakness may have been the end of consumer goods subsidies, and the widespread expectation that they would be reinstated. Such subsidies are a trap on public finances.Chinese industrial production rose +4.8% in November, below the expected +5.0% rise and near the lowest growth level since late 2023. Despite its lowish level, there are reasons to be sceptical of even this level. (See next item.)But November electricity production in China was up only +2.7% from the same month a year ago, showing up the October year-on-year surge as an outlier.In India, their November exports rose while their imports fell, delivering a much smaller trade deficit for the month than was expected; in fact their lowest since June. And the November shifts were true for both goods and services.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.18%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4295/oz, and down -US$4 from yesterday. And we should note that silver is up +US$1 at just over US$62/oz.American oil prices are down another -US$1 at just on US$56.50/bbl and a five year low, while the international Brent price is now just over US$60/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is -10 bps softer from yesterday, now at just over 57.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 87.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62, and down -20 bps from yesterday, shifted by a fall against the Japanese yen.The bitcoin price starts today at US$86,357 and down -2.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate, at just on +/- 2.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news today dominated by the vile attack in Sydney, extremism begetting extremism all permitted by unfiltered hatreds flowing out from its center. Financial news seems trivial in light of this. Of course we won't be covering this Australian tragedy. But it is likely to harden attitudes just when they need to soften.In the meantime, we are noting tech weakness dominating equity markets, and Fed speaker comments (here and here) pushing long benchmark bond yields higher. The USD is soft and down nearly -1% for the week. But first, the week ahead will locally feature Wednesday's current account data, and more so by Thursday's GDP tracking of Q3-2025 economic activity. The final consumer and business confidence survey results will likely come this week too.In Australia on the economic front, it will be about tracking household wealth, also out on Thursday.In the US, they will release catch-up data for non-farm payrolls on Wednesday for both October (??) and November. (+35,000 expected) That will be followed by November CPI data (3.2% expected). A slew of other US activity data will hit the news as well.In Japan, financial markets will be glued to their central bank meeting results (expect a +25 bps rise to 0.75%) along with a 3%+ CPI reading. From China, they will have their big monthly data dump of retail and industrial activity. In India they will release a lot of data too, including PMIs, but then, we will also get PMIs from many other countries, including our own PSI as well.Over the weekend, China said its new loan demand remains unusually weak, and in November came in even lower than the weak forecasts by observers. Chinese banks extended ¥390 bln in new yuan loans, up from the unusually low October level but still below both last year's weak ¥580 bln and market expectations of ¥500 bln. Soft household demand continues to weigh on stimulus efforts. Remember, over the past five years, this loan demand has averaged ¥830 bln in a November month so the current drag is notable.And it is looking increasingly like investors, including boardroom directors in charge of making capital expenditure decisions, have goner on a quiet strike in China.And staying in China, things just got worse for wavering China Vanke on Friday, once one of China's largest property developers. The Shenzhen-city controlled business was unable to get bondholder support for its latest financial restructuring. So current lenders took more of its assets as security.India's CPI inflation remains very low at +0.7% in November from a year ago, up from its record low level in October. This was driven by an almost -4% fall in food prices.India's bank loan growth is back up +11.5% from a year ago and its fastest expansion this year.In Malaysia, both their retail sales (+7.2% year-on-year) and their industrial production (+6.0%) expanded at an accelerating pace in October data released overnight.In Japan, it is becoming clear (from company financial reporting) that the Trump tariffs on Japanese exports have backfired. Japanese companies raised their prices after the initial tariff hit, the Americans paid the higher prices, and when Washington backed away from some of the more extreme levels after negotiation, and those hiked prices didn't retreat. They stayed up and boosted Japanese company profits. The picture was probably similar elsewhere. The ultimate losers have been the American buyers. American reshoring has been weak, so much so that one Fed member is now more worried about jobs than inflation.Canadian building consents surprised analysts with quite a surge in October, especially residential consents for multi-unit buildings in Toronto. That drove an outsized +15% national gain from September to be +19% higher than a year ago. On an annual basis, residential consents are also up +19% with Ontario up more than +28%.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.20%, unchanged from this time Saturday, up +6 bps from this time last week. The price of gold will start today at US$4299/oz, and up +US$5 from Saturday, up +US$84 from a week ago and back near its mid-October peak. And we should note that silver unchanged at US$62/oz.American oil prices are holding at just on US$57.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -50 USc at just over US$61/bbl. Both are -US$2.50 lower than a week ago. Separately, it is very noticeable that the North American rig counts are still languishing near their four year lows. No-one is rushing to invest as prices and demand stay very low.The Kiwi dollar is -10 bps softer from Saturday, now at just over 58 USc. But it is up +430 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 87.2 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged too at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.2, and up +10 bps from Saturday, up +20 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$88,831 and down -1.6% from this time Saturday, and and essentially unchanged from last week at this time. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low, at just on +/- 0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world's economy is handling the US tariff-tax buffeting quite well.Financial market reactions to the US Fed rate cut yesterday, and the nature of its split decision, has seen the USD fall, bonds shift to a risk averse tone, and Wall Street retreat, although it has recovered to break-even in the past hour. The oil price has fallen as demand estimates in the US fade.Today, in a very big shift, there were 313,100 actual initial jobless claims last week in the US which is the largest weekly rise since early in 2020. There are now 1.965 mln people on these benefits, +2% more than at this time last year.We should also note that the US home ownership rate in Q3-2025 was 65.3%. A year ago it was 65.6%. (In New Zealand it is 66.0%.) Their rental vacancy rate is now 7.1%, up from 6.9% a year ago.US wholesale inventories are rising according to late-released September data, now up +4.8% from a year ago. But their inventory-to-sales ratio isn't anywhere near concerning levels yet.US exports rose marginally in September, largely driven by the export of gold which accounted for 70% of the monthly rise. Computer exports fell, and travel receipts by visitors also retreated notably. Meanwhile imports into the US were little-changed. The shift of gold out enabled them to record their lowest trade deficit since 2020.In Canada however, their export growth was much stronger, and also featuring gold. Their exports jumped +6.3%, while imports were down -4.1%. That turned a trade deficit of -C$6.4 bln in August to a small trade surplus of +C$153 mln surplus in September and ending the 2025 negative monthly outcomes. Canada's exports of aircraft, and energy products (oil and electricity) rose significantly in September.Across the Pacific, Japan's Business Survey Index for large manufacturers rose to +4.7% in Q4-2025, up from 3.8% in the prior quarter and the strongest reading this year. This was better than expected, underscoring continued resilience despite trade frictions, growth concerns and their mounting fiscal risks.China has signaled that 2026 economic support from Beijing will be more modest than many had thought it would be.Switzerland reviewed its interest rate overnight and left it at 0%. They have inflation at +0.2%.We can also note the Central Bank of Turkey cut its policy rate by -150 bps to 38% overnight, a fourth consecutive reduction, and by more than markets expected. They claim inflation is starting to ease, especially food inflation. Overall inflation is still running over 30% pa, although that is half the rate of a year ago.In Australia, their November labour market report showed employment fell -21,300 (s.a.) from October, an unexpected result, but remained +182,400 higher than a year ago. Full-time employment fell -56,500 but part-time employment rose +35,200. Their jobless rate was stable at 4.3%. Underemployment rose to 6.2%.Container freight rates rose +2% last week from the prior week, largely on the back of rising rates from China to the EU. Rates from China to the US are falling as trade volumes ease. These container rates are now -45% lower than year-ago levels. Meanwhile bild cargo rates are +111% higher than year-ago levels, after last week's -14.8% fall off the recent peak.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.12%, down -4 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4273/oz, and up +US$70 from yesterday and back near its peak. And we should note again that silver has set a new record high, just under US$64/oz with another big move.American oil prices are down almost -US$1 at just over US$57/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$61/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is +30 bps firmer from yesterday, now at just on 58.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 87.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3, and up +30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,977 and down another -2.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate, at just over +/- 2.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.
It's a busy week for Star Wars comics, as 3 issues drop. Han and Chewie work to escape from Unkar Plutt in their quest for the Falcon. Finn, Rey, and Leia make their way to a Twi'lek colony and encounter the grave Nightlander. Plus, Poe Dameron concludes his epic fight with the Baron of Bestine, as he attempts to rescue the highly sought after codebreaker.Covers: Han Solo: Hunt for the Falcon #4, Tales from the Nightlands #3, and Poe Dameron: Codebreaker #4
Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news markets have essentially been on hold overnight awaiting the US Fed's decision.In the end, the Fed's FOMC trimmed its key rate by -25 bps to 3.75% as markets had guessed it would do. But it was not unanimous. The Trump stooge on the committee wanted a far larger cut. But the professional members fear inflation still and the small trim was the uneasy compromise. The voting was 9 members to cut by -25 bps, two to hold unchanged, and Miran wanting a big cut.Immediately after, the UST 10yr benchmark was active with a softish tone but really little-changed. the S&P500 rose, and the USD fell slightly. More reaction will come after Chairman Powell's press conference which is about to start soon.Earlier, the report on US mortgage applications was quite positive, up 4.8% last week from the week before which you may recall brought a small but unexpected retreat. The latest week however was all about refinance applications which were up +15% on that same prior week basis.An Q3-2025 data for US payroll compensation costs (pay plus payroll taxes plus benefits) were up +3.5% from a year ago, rising at about that rate in the latest quarter too. So American inflation isn't getting any respite from this direction.Quite how odd the US public policy has become is revealed in a current court case. US Federal prosecutors spent over a year extraditing a Belarusian woman to the US to face charges she illegally smuggled US tech to Russia for its war on Ukraine. Then ICE stepped in accusing her of being in the country illegally, and deported her, collapsing the case. Moscow smirked in satisfaction.In Canada, their central bank stood pat, holding their policy rate unchanged at 2.25% as widely expected. The say this is about the right level in the current uncertain environment. But they were surprised by the upside growth of GDP at +2.6% in the third quarter, found the labour market improvement better than anticipated as their unemployment rate fell. CPI inflation slowed to 2.2% in October and they see core inflation remaining in the 2.5% to 3% range.Across the Pacific in China, there was a slight rise in CPI inflation, enhance because the previous inflation was so low. Their inflation rose 0.7% in November from a year ago, as expected and accelerating from a +0.2% increase in October. This time, food price inflation was very low. It was the second consecutive month of consumer inflation and the fastest pace since February 2024.Meanwhile China's producer prices fell into a steeper deflation, down -2.2% in November from a year ago.And the IMF has raised its forecast for growth of the Chinese economy for 2025 and 2026, now expecting to see an expansion of +5.0% this year.And some influential analysts are saying the Chinese yuan is 25% undervalued and will appreciate more than forwards contracts are pricing for 2026.And in the EU, the ECB boss Christine Lagarde says they will likely raise their forecast for EU growth as well.In Australia, if you are retired and have assets, you need to pay a tax on a deemed rate of interest on your assets (irrespective of what they actually earn, if anything). That rate depends on how many assets you have. They raised it in September 2025 and have now signaled they will raise it again in March.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.16%, dipping -0.1 bp from this time yesterday and holding that after the Fed decision.The price of gold will start today at US$4204/oz, and down -US$17 from yesterday. And we should note again that silver has set a new record high, just under US$61/oz.American oil prices are little-changed at just om US$58/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$62/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is +10 bps firmer from yesterday, now at just under 57.9 USc. Against the Aussie though we are again essentially unchanged at 87.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62, and down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$92,274 and down -2.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just over +/- 1.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world is awash in better economic news today in many of the world's largest economies.First, the overnight dairy Pulse auction of the two key milk powders brought more weakness. The SMP price fell another -0.5% from last week's full auction, but as the NZD is rising, it was actually down -1.6% in NZD terms. The WMP fared worse, down -3.6% on the same basis in USD, down -4.2% in NZD. It is not a good trajectory.In the US there were some key labour market reports out today. First the weekly ADP private payrolls update for last week recorded a small +5000 gain which follows five consecutive weeks where they recorded more than a -27,000 loss of jobs (which was consistent with what they reported for the November month).And the catch-up JOLTS report for October showed little-change from September, but job openings were a little higher than anticipated for both months.And the widely watched SME sentiment survey from the NFIB was marginally better than expected, up slightly from October, but just back to the levels it has been at since May although that still leaves it at a slight net negative. Interestingly, the retail Redbook survey eased back a bit last week to the average rise it has recorded since later 2023, which mirrors retail inflation that is juiced by tariff-taxes. It is perhaps an indicator that the Thanksgiving seasonal retail was not as strong as hoped.There is more evidence that Trump is just plain dumb. After his failure to get the Chinese to buy US soybeans at scale, he is rolling out US$16 mln in taxpayer support for some farmers which will actually be very little for most. Now he is threatening swingeing tariffs on Canadian fertilizer imports of potash, oblivious that even if that blocks cheap Canadian imports, it will leave high-priced local product, with a net loss for farmers, probably exceeding US$15 bln. Even a high school economics student can see the flaws in his approach, which embeds higher costs on Americans.Trump has also handed China a huge AI chip win, agreeing to let Nvidia sell its best stuff to China. This will allow China to close the gap on the US AI advantages much faster now. The US security community is gobsmacked. China may not buy a lot, but it doers give them access to the technology.In Japan, machine tool orders were strong in November, up +14.2% from a year ago continuing expanded growth over the past seven months. But domestic demand actually fell. It was foreign orders that were the star here, up by +23%.Next week, there will be an important central bank meeting in Tokyo. Overnight remarks by the Bank of Japan governor seemed to set the groundworks for another rate rise on the basis that inflation is embedding, especially wage inflation, and that the risks of deflation there are receding on a permanent basis. Japanese long term interest rates are now approaching 2% and a twenty year high..Taiwanese exports were exceptionally strong again, as we have come to expect. They surged +56% in November from a year ago to a record US$64 bln, up from a 49% gain in October and again better that market expectations for a 41% rise. It is strong global demand for their chips and AI technology that is powering these amazing results.German exports also rose in October, a surprise because that had risen strongly in September and a small correction was expected.We get US export data on Friday, and in contrast to Japan, Germany, Taiwan and China, they are currently expected to show a retreat.In Australia, the RBA kept the cash rate on hold at Tuesday's review as expected. Their review was slightly more hawkish, firmly focused on the upside risks to inflation. And that is what financial markets reacted to with bond yields rising as a result.And staying in Australia, the NAB Business Confidence Index slipped in November from October, but stayed just positive, although the weakest reading since April. The survey showed business conditions softened after declines in sales and profitability.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.17%, unchanged from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4217/oz, and up +US$26 from yesterday. And we should note that silver has set a new record high, over US$60/oz.American oil prices are down -US$1 again at just over US$58/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$62/bbl. Analysts are sow saying a 'super glut' of oil is on the way, and downward price pressures will rise from here.The Kiwi dollar is +10 bps firmer from yesterday, now at just on 57.8 USc. Against the Aussie though we are essentially unchanged at 87.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.1, and also up +20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$94,444 and up +5.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate, at just over +/- 2.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news long term bond yields are on the move higher again with the UST 10yr at a 4 month high, but the Japanese yen is now at a 27 year high. The Australian equivalent is at a 2 year high and threatening a 14 year benchmark, while the NZGB 10 year is at a 5 month high.In the US, the top-line survey of inflation expectations seems stable at a highish 3.2% for the year ahead, 3.0% for 5 years ahead. But within that are some signals that have garnered attention. Expectations for food rose to 5.9%, petrol climbed to 4.1%, medical care surged to 10.1% (the highest since January 2014), college education increased to 8.4%, and rent jumped to 8.3%. The main reason the overall lid remained is that house price expectations fell. The survey indicated that consumers expect a worsening financial situation.The failure of the Trump Administration to get a deal out of China for agricultural exports is seeing them scrambling to support their farmers with direct subsidies.There was another US Treasury auction today, the ever-popular 3 year Note. But offer volumes fell more than -7% for this event. It delivered a median yield of 3.57%, little-changed from the 3.54% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In Japan, a powerful earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 7.5 struck northeastern Japan late Monday night, with aaa a tsunami warning for coastal areas of Hokkaido issued.Japan's GDP contracted -0.6% in Q3 2025 from Q2, a larger fall than the flash estimate of a -0.4% decline and market forecasts for a -0.5% drop. The latest figure followed a downwardly revised -0.5% growth in Q2 and marked the first quarterly contraction since Q1 2024, with business spending slipping for the first time in three quarters.In China, they released November trade data overnight and their exports rose by +5.9% from a year ago to an eleven-month high, much better than the expected +3.8% rise and recovering from the -1.1% fall in October. There was a notable surge in exports to non-US markets. A lower than expected rise in imports delivered at trade balance exceeding +US$110 for the month and extending their rise that started with the Trump challenge in late 2024. Separation from the US has delivered a rising export dividend for China. For the eleven months of 2025 so far, the Chinese trade surplus has now exceeded US$1 tln.Over all of 2025 to the US, their exports fell -18% and their imports fell -13%. To Australia, China's exports are up +8% while imports are down -8%. To New Zealand, China's exports are up +4% while their imports are up +10%.As good as these export numbers are for China, they are also going into debt at an equally impressive rates. China's central government will likely issue more than CNY12 tln (US$1.7 tln) of new debt in 2026, with a fiscal deficit ratio of at least 4%. There is alarm in some quarters as the expansionist policies get the official tick..In Europe, German industrial production rose +1.8% in October from September, sharply outperforming market expectations for a -0.4% decline. It was the strongest monthly gain since March. Year on year it is up +0.8%. The Germans measure this metric in real, inflation-adjusted terms.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.17%, up another +3 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$4191/oz, and down -US$6 from yesterday.American oil prices are down -US$1 at just over US$59/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$63/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is marginally softer from yesterday, now at just under 57.7 USc, down -10 bps. Against the Aussie though we are up +10 bps at just on 87.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 49.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.9, and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,846 and up +0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just over +/- 1.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news long term global bond yields are rising.The coming week will be one dominated by the final central bank monetary policy decisions of the year. The big one, the one that will likely move markets, is the US one on Thursday NZT. Markets expect a -25 bps cut to 3.75%. There will also be central bank decisions from Canada (Thursday, no change expected), Switzerland (Friday, no change), Australia (Tuesday, no change), Brazil (Thursday, no change), and Turkey (Friday, -100 bps).This week will also feature China releasing a series of key November economic data including for exports (expected to be strong), CPI inflation (expected to rise marginally but stay very low), PPI (still in deflation). Monetary and debt data will also be closely watched. In Japan, it will be all about their Q3 GDP, PPI, and machine tool orders.In India, markets will focus on November inflation data.In Australia, apart from the expected no-change RBA decision, labour market data will likely show their jobless rate edging up, and business confidence surveys are expected to be broadly stable.At the end of last week bond markets kept pushing up long term yields. The rise of Japanese long bond yields has this market concerned. But that just comes on top of where US fiscal stability is heading.In the US, personal income data is in catch-up mode with September details released over the weekend. Income was up +1.9% from a year ago while personal expenditures were up +2.1% on the same basis. Their PCE version of inflation was +2.8% and rising. There are no real surprises in this now-old data.Meanwhile US consumer debt rose +2.2% or +US$9.2 bln in October, less than expected and less than the September rise. Revolving debt (like credit cards) rose at an annual rate of +4.9%. Non-revolving debt which includes car and student loans was up +1.2%.Earlier, the University of Michigan December consumer sentiment survey reported it didn't fall from November, posting a small, probably insignificant gain. That leaves it -28% lower than a year ago. Year-ahead inflation expectations decreased from 4.5% last month to 4.1% this month. Despite the nominal improvements, the overall levels across the board remain quite dismal for most consumers there.Canada reported payroll data for November over the weekend and rather than the expected -5000 dip, they got a +53,600 gain in overall employment. But unfortunately for them, all the gains were in part-time employment (+63,000) with full time jobs shrinking -9,400.This extended better-than-expected labour market report is one of the reasons the IMF's latest review of Canada was quite positive. They are impressed by how Canada is handling the attempted-trashing it has been getting from the US.In China, their foreign exchange reserves, already very large, climbed to US$3.346 tln in November and fractionally less than expected. It was the fourth straight month of increases, to the highest level since November 2015 and it happened even though the US dollar weakened. Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China continued to add to its gold holdings for the thirteenth consecutive month, with reserves edging up to 74.1 mln troy ounces in November and their value rose +4.5% in a month (in USD).In India, and as expected, their central bank cut its key repo rate by -25 bps to 5.25% at its Friday meeting. They claim confidence in a softer inflation outlook. The RBI has now cut rates by a total of -125 bps since the beginning of the year, bringing the repo rate to its lowest level since July 2022.In Japan, household personal spending fell unexpectedly in October, and quite hard. It was down -2.9% from a year ago, way different to the market expectations of a +1.0% rise, and reversing a +1.8% gain in September. It was the first decline since April. From September, personal spending fell -3.5%, and starkly different from the expected +0.7% rise.In Germany, factory orders rose +1.5% in October from September, better than the expected +0.5% gain but slowing from an upwardly revised 2.0% gain in the previous month. From a year ago, their factory orders are down -0.7% however. The latest data was boosted by a very large (+87%) jump in orders for large equipment like aircraft, ships, and trains. There was also a +12% rise in metal production and processing. In contrast, demand for electrical equipment fell -16%. These are all quite big moves with the overall change.Globally, the FAO says its Food Price Index declined for the third consecutive month in November, with all indices but cereals down. Dairy prices were down -1.6% from a year ago, down -11.5% from their June peak. Meat prices were up +5.0% from a year ago but down -2.7% from their recent September peak.It is probably worth noting that the Argentine wheat crop is going to be huge this year, one that will have global impacts. In Australia, the winter wheat crop will be the second largest ever too.Also worth noting is that Trump's boast to farmers that the Chinese will be back buying American soybeans in a major way was just fantasy. They have bought only minor volumes. Administration officials are now admitting there never was any agreement.And we should also probably note that the copper price is moving up sharply again, back toward its US-tariff-induced July heights.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.14%, unchanged from this time Saturday, up +12 bps for the week. The price of gold will start today at US$4197/oz, and down -US$18 from Saturday, down -US$13 for the week. Silver is moving higher again, back at over US$58.50/oz and near its record high.American oil prices are holding at just over US$60/bbl, while the international Brent price is still at just under US$64/bbl, and up about +US$1 for the week.The Kiwi dollar is marginally higher from Saturday, now at just under 57.8 USc, up +50 bps for the week. Against the Aussie though we are unchanged at just on 87 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 49.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.9, and little-changed from yesterday and from a week ago.The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,503 and up +0.7% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just on +/- 1.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of some notable and sudden rises in freight rates.But first, US jobless claims came in lower last week than expected at 197,200 in a holiday-affected period. Seasonal factors has expected a lesser decrease. There are now 1.7 mln people on these benefits nationally. A year ago, there were 1.66 mln on them.The November job cut tracking shows it was less than in October, coming in for the latest month at 77,000. That ends a strong of outsized monthly cutbacks although it is +24% higher than year-ago levels. In fact for only the sixth time since 1993 has the year-to-date level been higher than 1.1 mln and the 2025 level is now the highest since the pandemic.There was also catchup data out overnight for US factory orders for September. They were little-changed from August but were +5.3% higher than year-ago levels. They are still struggling to recover official stats and no revised dates are available for their October or November updates.Meanwhile the NY Feds tracking of global supply chain pressure shows it is easing. Their index eased to -0.16 in November, weakening from -0.09 in October. The index reflects deviations in global supply chain conditions relative to its historical average, with negative values indicating below-average pressure.EU retail sales were up +1.6% from a year ago in volume terms in October, better than the expected +1.2% gain. But that was a slowing in their retail expansion from what they have had for most of 2025.In Australia, household spending rose +5.6% in October from the same month a year ago, and that was its fastest rise since November 2023. It was up +1.3% from September alone, its fastest pace since January 2024 on that basis. Spending on all categories except fuel and health costs rose notably in the month. This data adds to the chance the RBA will be raising rates in 2026.Global container freight rates rose +7% last week from the prior week, ending the recent three-week retreats. Outbound rates from China to the US and to Europe rose while trans-Atlantic rates dipped. Overall container freight rates are now -45% lower than year-ago levels. Also rising, and even more sharply were bulk cargo rates, up +18% from a week ago and these rates are now +132% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.10%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4209/oz, and down -US$9 from yesterday.American oil prices are +50 USc firmer at just over US$59.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just under US$63.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from yesterday, now at just over 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie though we are down -10 bps at just under 87.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.2, and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$92,607 and virtually unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just over +/- 1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.
Jar Jar Binks and Senator Bail Organa lobby the Toydarians for support of the Twi'leks on Ryloth while the Trade Federation interferes in their efforts in this episode of The Clone Wars. In this fully armed and operational episode of Podcast Stardust, we discuss: Where this episode falls in the chronology of The Clone Wars, Our overall thoughts on this episode, The complicated politics of the Trade Federation, Neimoidians, Viceroy Nute Gunray, and others that can be complicated, Jar Jar Binks's role in the negotiations with the Toydarians, Jedi Master Ima-Gun Di and the play on words with his name, and more. For more discussion of The Clone Wars, check out episode 960. Thanks for joining us for another episode! Subscribe to Podcast Stardust for all your Star Wars news, reviews, and discussion wherever you get your podcasts. And please leave us a five star review on Apple Podcasts. Find Jay and her cosplay adventures on J.Snips Cosplay on Instagram. Follow us on social media: Twitter | Facebook | Instagram | Pinterest | YouTube. T-shirts, hoodies, stickers, masks, and posters are available on TeePublic. Find all episodes on RetroZap.com.
Jar Jar Binks and Senator Bail Organa lobby the Toydarians for support of the Twi'leks on Ryloth while the Trade Federation interferes in their efforts in this episode of The Clone Wars.
Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news financial markets are absorbing some conflicting American data, and moving sideways today, with the USD easing.There were two services PMIs for the giant US economy out today. The ISM version edged up slightly for November, notable because it was expected to edge down. And the result is the best in nine months for this metric. The continued expansion in both business activity and new orders drove this outcome. Similarly, the S&P Global version for the US service sector reported an expansion although less than in October. Both surveys noted high embedded inflation however.US industrial production rose +0.1% in September from August, following a downwardly revised -0.3% drop in August. This means from a year ago, American industrial production is up +1.6%. Better than a decline but nothing like how the tariff-effects were sold. This activity was far better in the Obama years.But the ADP private sector payrolls report for November brought tough news. Businesses cut -32,000 jobs in November, following an upwardly revised +47,000 gain in October. Analysts were expecting this report to show a +10,000 rise based on ADP's weekly reporting. It is the biggest decline in payrolls since March 2023, led by a -120,000 drop at small businesses. We won't get the official non-farm payrolls report for November until December 17 (NZT), in its delayed restart.And the volume of mortgage applications in the US fell by -1.4% from the previous week in the last week of November to the lowest level in nearly three months. And that happened even though the key mortgage rates fell to a four week low.US vehicle sales were modest in November. They rose from October to 15.6 mln units but that is a long way down from the 16.7 mln in November 2024.Across the Pacific in China, their services sector continues to expand, driven by a sustained increase in new business, though the expansion slowed since October.China's local government debt continues to balloon as the lingering real estate slump has led to decreased income from property sales, pushing local government bond issuance for the year to a record high. The total owed by local governments and the local government financing vehicles that fund their projects now sits at a remarkable ¥134 tln (NZ$33 tln).In the EU, producer prices were little changed in October from September, but from a year ago they have dipped -0.2%. So no inflation pressures from this direction.In Australia, their economy grew less than expected in Q3-2025. Economic activity expanded +0.4% from the June quarter. Markets had expected a +0.7% expansion as it had in Q2-2025. Still, it was the 16th straight quarter of expansion. On a yearly basis, their GDP rose +2.1%, less than forecasts of +2.2% and after a +2.0% growth in Q2.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.07%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4218/oz, and up +US$32 from yesterday.American oil prices are +50 USc firmer at just over US$59/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just under US$663/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from yesterday, still at just under 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie though we are unchanged at just on 87.4 AUc. Against the euro we have also held at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.1, and up +20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$92,535 and up +1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just on +/- 1.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world is in a slowdown period as the globally large economies show signs of culminating.But we start today with some tough news. The overnight dairy auction saw prices fall to a two year low, the eight consecutive drop in these auctions. Apart from cheddar cheese which made an unexpected large recovery, everything else fell, especially butter which fell to a two year low in NZD and a three year low in USD. Overall, prices retreated +4.3% in USD and -5.4% in NZD. Falls this large have happened before since mid-July 2024. Analysts had already trimmed their current season payout forecasts, and today's event may have them thinking about revisiting them again. Certainly, the trend isn't positive.The OECD says global economic growth to ease to +2.9% in 2026 from +3.2% in 2025 as tariffs, weak trade and geopolitical uncertainty weigh on activity. In the US, growth is projected to slow to +2.0% in 2025 and +1.7% in 2026. For China, they see economic growth of +5% in 2025 and weaken to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027. Consumption will be dampened by high precautionary savings and the payback effect of the now winding down trade-in program.For New Zealand they said after contracting in 2024, the economy is projected to expand by +0.7% in 2025, +1.8% in 2026 and +2.8% in 2027. Growth will be supported by lower interest rates, improving household real incomes, buoyant tourism, and firm commodity export earnings. However, weak confidence, high energy costs, easing net immigration, and elevated uncertainty surrounding trade restrictions are expected to remain headwinds to the near-term recovery. Inflation is projected to remain within the central bank's target band, easing towards 2%. The unemployment rate is projected to decline from its peak in 2025.For Australia, they said economic growth is now strengthening and becoming more private-sector-driven. GDP growth is projected to quicken to +2.3% in 2026 and 2027, up from 1.8% in 2025. This is consistent with a gradual closing of the small negative output gap, keeping unemployment low while allowing inflation to remain close to target. Risks are balanced, with downside risks from a greater-than-expected softening of labour market conditions while, on the upside, strengthening disposable incomes could bring a faster acceleration of private consumption.The signals in the US were not as negative today. The RCM/TIPP economic optimism Index recovered in December from is sharp November dip. But to be fair, this only returns it to the below-average levels it reported from March to October.But that rebound was not seen in their logistics sector. The Logistics Manager's Index eased back to its slowest growth in the sector since June 2024. The slowdown is driven by a continued softening of inventory and warehousing metrics but tempered by some expansion in transportation. Warehousing utilisation contracted for the first time in the 9-year history of the index.However, by some accounts the US holiday retail activity was strong, especially for online trade. Shoppers there spent US$14 bln online on Cyber Monday, pushing total online sales over the Thanksgiving weekend to US$44 bln. Spending rose +7.7% during the so-called Cyber Week - the five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday - compared with an +8.2% increase to $41 bln last year and above its prior expectations of $43.7 bln.Across the Pacific, Japanese consumer confidence rose sharply in November from October to its best level since April 2024, with all components improving:In the EU, inflation is running in their sweet spot. Euro area consumer price inflation rose to +2.2% in November, up from 2.1% in October and slightly above market expectations of 2.1%. Services inflation accelerated to +3.5% however (from 3.4%) and its highest level since April, while energy prices declined at a slower pace.In Australia, and after a big September surge, October's residential building permit levels were expected to be tame by comparison. But in the event it was negative and the September rise was revised lower. And that meant the annual level of consents to October were lower than a year ago and its first year-on-year retreat since June 2024.The UST 10yr yield is now just under 4.10%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4186/oz, and down -US$47 from yesterday. Silver has held up at US$58/oz.American oil prices are -50 USc softer at just under US$59/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just over US$62.50/bbl. And we should note that natural gas prices dropped back yesterday after the prior day surge.The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday, still at just under 57.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -10 bps at under 87.4 AUc. Against the euro we have held at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.9, and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$90,852 and recovering +6.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high, at just on +/- 3.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the global economic expansion is tailing off as we come to the end of 2025.First in the US, we can report that new orders in their factory sector are falling. That is a key factor that has driven the closely-watched ISM manufacturing PMI lower, for a ninth consecutive month, and falling at a faster pace. Survey respondents cite problems with the tariff-taxes, and "trade confusion". And they report high price pressure, and rising The November result is below the deterioration expected. It's a result that has cast a pall over Wall Street today.But the ISM report is only one perspective. The rival S&PGlobal factory PMI reported a November expansion, even a modest rise in new orders. But it also noted that a lot of this 'positive activity' is related to inventory building which won't be sustainable without final customer demand. Financial markets seemed to ignore this alternate PMI.The Canadian factory PMi wasn't positive either for November which reported a marginal contraction. Interestingly, it also reported lower inflation pressures.These two North American factory PMIs feed into a global report that has overall output and new orders rising at slower rates but business optimism rising to a five-month high.In India, their October report for industrial production brought an unexpectedly sharp slowdown, hardly above year-ago levels when +4% year-on-year gains had become the norm for the past two years. We will need to wait for their November result to see if October was just an aberration. They will be hoping so.In Japan, their central bank governor has been speaking and has hinted that a rate hike at their next meeting on December 19 is a live possibility. (see pages 6 & 7.)In China, the alternative PMI to the official version has also slipped in a similar way. The S&PGlobal manufacturing sector PMI shows that conditions deteriorated in November, not by a lot, but certainly going the wrong way. There was no growth in new orders.In Australia, the Melbourne Institute inflation gauge for November rose again and is now further above the RBA's 2-3% inflation target range. Interestingly, while this result is higher, it is lower than the official October CPI rate of 3.8%.After a -2.6% quarter-on-quarter fall in Australian company profits in Q2-2025, they were expected to bounce back in Q3-2025. But in the event they stalled, unchanged, in a disappointing outcome and only +1.1% higher than year-ago levels.And staying in Australia, the Cotality house price tracking rose +1.0% in November, a slight softening from the +1.1% gain in October. Annual growth lifted to +7.1%, with quarterly gains tracking a +13.2% annualised pace. Sydney and Melbourne are the laggards, indicating that affordability has reached its serviceability limits.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.09%, up +7 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4233/oz, and up just +US$15 from yesterday. But silver has surged again to a new record high of US$58.50/oz, up +US$2 from yesterday.American oil prices are -50 USc softer at just over US$59/bbl, while the international Brent price is unchanged at just on US$63/bbl. And we should probably also note that natural gas prices are rising and are now at their highest except for the pandemic period.The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday, still at just under 57.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at just on 87.5 AUc. Against the euro we have held at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.9, and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$85,426 and down -7.0%% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very high, at just on +/- 4.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are waiting for the first indications of retail sales, as the US and EU economies make their run to the end-of-year holiday season. It is this retail impulse that powers much of the global economy.Also, in the week ahead we will get local and Australian building consent data, and the Aussies will release the Q3-2025 GDP growth rate, expected to be +2.2% from a year agoIn the US, there will be more catch-up official data releases but their non-farm payroll data for November has been delayed until mid-December now. However ADP will release its new weekly update and the Challenger job cut report will still come out on time. There will be PMIs for the US and no-one expects much change in any of this. Of special interest will be the end-of-week release of the UofM sentiment survey. Few see any improvement there either with it hovering around record lows.Elsewhere there will be a raft of PMI and trade and inflation releases from many countries. And the Indian central bank meets and is widely expected to cut its policy rate by -25 bps to 4.25% despite the surging growth. Fast-falling food prices means inflation is seen as under control there.Over the weekend India said their economy expanded by +8.2% in September from the previous year from the previous year and well above the expected +7.3% Q3-2025 rise and above the +7.8% growth rate from Q2-2025. It was the sharpest annual growth rate rise since March 2024. India trimmed its GST rates and increased government spending when they were faced with swingeing US tariffs, and that, along with re-orienting trade has supported consumer confidence and private investment. In late September, they simplified their multi-slab GST system with the rates for most goods falling from 12% or 28%, to 5% and 18%. This change has been a big part of their boost, giving more of an effect than anticipated.China said its official November PMIs were weaker and their tepid expansion has turned into a general but small contraction. The main change was for their services sector, shrinking for the first time in three years and joining the ongoing small contraction in their factory sector. That factory sector has now contracted for eight straight months. Both measures would be a lot worse if they didn't have deflation in their input costs. The private S&PGlobal version isn't expected to vary much from that when it is released later today, although it may be on the more positive side. Either way, these indicators are not pointing to an economy expanding like their GDP claims.Japan said retail sales were +1.7% higher in October than a year ago (real) and that was very much better than the +0.8% expected and the +0.2% in September. And Japanese industrial production rose +1.5% in the year to October, an unexpected second consecutive month of expansion and the October month also came in much better than expected.In South Korea there was a big separation between the two sectors. Industrial production declined, and quite sharply in October, although this largely reverses the big surge in September. And their retail sales took an unexpected surge, up +3.5% from September to be +2.2% higher than a year ago.In Canada, they released their September GDP growth outcome over the weekend and their forecast for October. The picture was mixed and they seem to be settling into a bit of a yo-yo pattern. July was up +0.3% for the month, August down -0.3%, September up +0.2% and October's 'flash' result down -0.3%. There is a tendency for the 'flash' results to be revised higher. Generally their goods-producing sector is marginally weaker while their services sector is mixed. From a year ago, Canada's economic activity is up +1.4%.Early reports of US retail trade over the weekend seem positive, but heavily focused online.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.02%, unchanged from Saturday but down -5 bps from a week ago.The price of gold will start today at US$4218/oz, and up +US$7 from Saturday. And that is a +US$134/oz rise for the week, or +3.2%.Silver surged in Friday US trade to a record high US$56.50/oz. Chinese inventories have dropped to their lowest level in a decade following heavy shipments to London triggered by a supply squeeze. A Comex outage in the US didn't help either.American oil prices are unchanged from Saturday to be just on US$59.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is little-changed at just over US$63/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$58/bbl and US$62.50/bbl, so a +US$1.50 rise in the US but far less internationally.The Kiwi dollar is up another +10 bps from Saturday, now at just under 57.4 USc. A week ago it was at 56.1 USc so a +120 bps rise since then or a +2.1% appreciation. Against the Aussie we are little-changed overnight at just on 87.6 AUc. Against the euro we have held at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62, and essentially unchanged from Saturday, up +110 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$91,838 and up +1.5% from Saturday. And it is up +6.9% from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low however, at just on +/- 0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the global economy has one month to go to bolster its 2025 economic performance, all down to retail sales now.First, of course, the US is now in its Thanksgiving holiday weekend, the start of their big retail period until Christmas. A lot rides on the consumer spending activity in this period. It is an impulse with global impact. But the lead-in has not been helpful about giving clues on how it will turn out.Meanwhile, Canadian average weekly earnings came in stronger than expected, up +3.1% in September from a year ago and a touch higher than the August +2.7% rise on the same basis. It was a broad-based rise. It is not a bad result for them given their CPI rise was +2.4% in September, and fell to +2.2% in October, so their earnings are recording real gains.The 'Buy Canadian' movement will be getting the ultimate test this weekend during the 'Black Friday' sales period.In China, industrial profits dropped -5.5% in October from a year ago, taking the top off the +22% jump in September. and the +13% rise in August, and being the first slowdown in growth in three months. A quarter of all companies are now posting losses, a record high. The cost of debt is also a reason some are noting that profits are under pressure. And that may loom larger, because Beijing as told their SOE banks to lend more to other SOEs to prop up consumption demand.We can also see office rents in major cities falling, vacancy rates rising, as pain spreads in the commercial property sector. Vanke is wobbling more now. And separately, despite high sales and rapid growth, Chinese car manufacturers are suffering record low margins. Their industry is very vulnerable to a demand slowdown.In Taiwan, consumer sentiment edged up in October from September, but it is still quite low and far lower than year-ago levels. They haven't got back anywhere near the level they started the year with. Relentless mainland pressure to 'unify' and kill their independence isn't helping.The Bank of Korea held its base policy rate at 2.5% at today's meeting, the final policy session of the year. It did this despite concerns over the broader Korean economic outlook, including a persistent property market slump and a volatile currency.In Malaysia, producer prices were little-changed in October, essentially ending the deflation they had in the prior seven months.In the EU, overall economic sentiment held as did consumer inflation expectations. They are modest and back to pre-pandemic levels in a stable mode and putting behind them the rather strong deflationary expectations over the past two years. That sanguine view was reinforced by the release overnight of the ECB meeting minutes. They seem happy with where they are at and no rate changes seem imminent.In Australia, prudential regulator APRA has said it will limit high debt-to-income home loans to constrain riskier lending that is starting to show up in that market. Some of it has been induced by the Canberra government's taxpayer-subsidised 5% deposit guarantee scheme.And staying in Australia, new private capital spending is rising and more quickly than expected. The rise was largely driven by non-mining industries, which recorded a +13.0% jump, while spending on mining equipment and machinery grew just +4.5%.Global container freight rates dipped -2% last week to be -47% lower than year-ago levels. Outbound China rates are a touch weaker while trans-Atlantic rates a touch stronger. However, bulk freight rates have risen +6.0% over the past week and are now sitting a touch over +50% higher than year ago levels and are back to levels we last saw briefly in November 2023, and prior to that during the pandemic.The UST 10yr yield is still just on 4.00% with US markets closed.The price of gold will start today at US$4156/oz, and down -US$10 from yesterday.American oil prices have risen almost +US$1 from yesterday to be just under US$59/bbl, while the international Brent price is also up, but less, now just over US$63/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up another +30 bps from yesterday, now at just over 57.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at just over 87.6 AUc. Against the euro we have risen +30 bps to 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.9, and up +30 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$91,468 and up +4.5% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.
Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news notable data in both Australia and New Zealand yesterday has reset our currencies and our benchmark interest rates.In New Zealand of course it was the market reaction to the RBNZ OCR cut, in Australia it was the unexpected rise in their CPI inflation. Both had a cumulative impact in both countries.But first. American mortgage applications has week were little-changed, but refinance activity softened noticeably while new purchase activity was firm, despite mortgage interest rates creeping up.Actual US initial jobless claims rose to 244,000 last week from the prior week's 218,300, but that puts them almost identical to year-ago levels. Continuing claims are now 1,796,000, +4.3% higher than year-ago levels.Catch-up data for US durable goods orders for September was mildly positive from August but were a good +9.6% higher than year-ago levels. Excluding aircraft and defence orders, capital goods orders were little-changed from a year ago.More current, the Chicago PMI came in much more negative in November than the weak October level with weakness building in new order levels, production, and employment. It is now down approaching ten-year lows.We get the Fed's Beige Book later this morning and it too is expected to report weaker conditions. Of special interest will be what they found in these surveys on inflation pressures.Across the Pacific, Singapore reported strong rises in industrial production, rising +29% from a year ago an that was their largest gain in over ten years.In Hong Kong we should note a tragedy. A massive fire has engulfed multiple high-rise residential blocks in Hong Kong's northern Tai Po district overnight, killing at least 36 people with hundreds still missing They struggled to bring the blaze under control.In Australia, CPI inflation accelerated to 3.8% in October, up from 3.6% in September and above expectations of a 3.6% increase. It is well above the RBA's 2-3% target range. This is the highest inflation reading since the monthly data series began in April 2025. They are likely to get rate hikes in 2026 now.And staying in Australia, total construction work fell -0.7% in Q3-2025 from the prior quarter, missing expectations for a +0.4% rise. But it held its year-on-year +2.9% growth in Q3. The quarterly downturn was driven primarily by a sharp drop in engineering work based around infrastructure projects.Here in New Zealand, yesterday's Monetary Policy Statement brought a more hawkish tone than financial markets were expecting and that caused a rethink in how interest rate pricing was set, resulting in a rise across the board in rates.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.00%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4166/oz, and up +US$29 from yesterday.American oil prices have risen +50 USc from yesterday to be just on US$58/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just on US$62.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up a sharpish +80 bps from yesterday, now at just over 56.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at just under 87.4 AUc. Against the euro we have risen +60 bps to 49.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.6, and up a significant +80 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,560 and up +0.6% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.0%.In the US, S&P Ratings has downgraded its stability rating of stablecoin Tether to 'Weak", concerned it is undercollateralised - that is, it no longer has the backing to maintain is USD peg.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news bond markets are ramping up their defensive posture, especially in the US, as American economic data fades further.But first up today, there was a GlobalDairyTrade Pulse powder auction today and prices slipped again. They were down -1% from the prior full event a week ago for SMP and dived a rather sharp -4% for WMP. This will keep downward pressure on pay-out forecasts for the current season, especially the WMP result.In the US, the ADP weekly employment report said a net -13,500 US jobs were lost last week, the largest weekly drop since ADP started releasing their weekly data. The pace of payroll shrinkage seems to be rising in the US.American retail sales growth slowed to +4.3% in September from the + 5.0% rise in August. On a monthly basis, retail sales rose +0.2%, half the expected +0.4% increase and suggesting the weakness is concentrated recently. Observers will be watching the weak car sales component, especially.Producer prices rose +2.7% in September from a year earlier, exactly as expected.Pending home sales fell -0.4% in October from year-ago levels, the second consecutive monthly dip, and the eighth of 2025. However they did record a seasonal rise from September.The latest factory survey from the Richmond Fed covering the mid-Atlantic states was quite negative.And the Dallas Fed services survey was downbeat too, although the contraction there was at a slower pace than in October.So it will be no surprise to learn that the Conference Board's consumer sentiment survey was also quite negative, falling sharply and mirroring the similar University of Michigan survey. Perceptions of inflation rose, to 4.8%.And traditional Thanksgiving travel plans are being scaled back. They were expecting a rise this year, but the economic situation and uncertainties about disruptions are seeing an unexpected rise in cancellations, so a decline is now anticipated.Across the Pacific in South Korea, consumer sentiment is rising. Their central bank's survey revealed a Composite Consumer Sentiment Index at the highest reading since November 2017. Their renewed confidence follows a major trade agreement with the US and stronger-than-expected economic growth.In Taiwan, retail sales rose +1.9% in October from the same month a year ago, a bounce-back from the -1.6% dip in September. Meanwhile their industrial production expanded sharply again, up another +14.5% on that same year-on-year basis, although the pace of expansion seems to be slowing a bit even if it is strong.The UST 10yr yield is now under 4.00%, down -5 bps from this time yesterday to 3.99% as a defensive mood takes hold.The price of gold will start today at US$4138/oz, and up +US$42 from yesterday.American oil prices have fallen -US$1 from yesterday to be just on US$57.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$62/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is holding at just under 56.1 USc, and little-changed from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at just under 87 AUc. Against the euro we have dropped -20 bps to 48.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 60.8, and little-changed if soft.The bitcoin price starts today at US$86,996 and down -0.3% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.Today, the RBNZ will review the OCR and issue its final Monetary Policy Statement of the year. Join us from 2pm when we will start our full coverage.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news holiday season retail cheerleaders may have to work harder this year to induce spending.First, Americans are expected to be out retail shopping this week in record numbers, up almost +2% this year than last year. But doubts are also rising about how much they will spend. Research shows shoppers are wary of high prices driven by tariff-taxes, and are hitting the streets mainly in search of bargains and with stricter budgets. The recoil that "everything is more expensive" comes as other surveys show Americans refuse to dip into savings to pay for holiday shopping. That is leaving many observers suspecting this year's holiday sales volumes may be stunted.And local manufacturers are finding that retailers are not ordering like they used to.The Dallas Fed's Texas factory survey retreated in November (to -10.4, from -5 in October), a fourth consecutive monthly contraction in manufacturing activity and the steepest since June. Interestingly, outlook views worsened even though they reported a modest rise in new orders. Cost pressures rose.Meanwhile, Canada's manufacturing sales data for October turned negative, although not as negative as expected. This comes after an unexpectedly upbeat September, so more of a settling than a decline.Across the Pacific in Singapore, they are getting another whiff of CPI inflation. Their rate climbed to 1.2% in October from a year ago, from 0.7% in September and the highest level since January. Food prices rose the most in six months.And new information from China's recently adopted 5-Year Plan, is helpful in put Beijing's influence on the giant Chinese economy in perspective. There are calls for more central control of the economy by Beijing, because they provide only about 15% of all budgeted public expenditure, the rest from provincial and local government. Some want that to rise to 40%. For perspective, the OECD average is 60% from central government.In Australia, they will implement age-restrictions for social media platforms on December 10, almost all of them American-owned and all enabling unrestricted criminal communications that also enable users to bully and exploit minors (Americans regards that as 'free speech'). It is a move that is being watched by many countries, the latest being Malaysia. So far, no American operator has said it will obey Australian law in Australia.On the geopolitical trade front, China has made some more soybean purchases, but relatively minor ones. It does keep the Americans interested, but so far in the 2025/26 season they have bought about 12% of their trade-deal agreement level.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.04%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4096/oz, and up +US$32 from yesterday.American oil prices have largely held from yesterday to be just under US$58.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$62.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is holding at just on 56.1 USc, and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are also holding at just under 86.9 AUc. Against the euro we have dipped -10 bps to 48.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 60.8, and down a bit less than -10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,268 and up +0.8% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Q3 is developing better than expected in most parts of the world.But first, this week will be all about Wednesday's RBNZ OCR review, where a-25 bps rate cut is widely expected. That will probably push term deposit rates down, and floating mortgage rates down too. But it is still unclear how it will affect fixed home loan rates. After that, we will get the local consumer and business sentiment updates.In Australia, the key data release this week will be Wednesday's monthly CPI data for October, expected to dip from 3.5% to 3.3%.Elsewhere there will be a lot of data from the US early in the week as they clear the decks with shutdown-delayed data before they go on their four-day Thanksgiving weekend break. Other countries will be releasing GDP and inflation data too.In China, attention will turn to October industrial profits and the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI readings for November. In Japan, markets will focus on October labour and industrial production data. In India, GDP figures are expected to show that the economy grew at a slightly slower pace in July to September 2025, though most analysts still anticipate growth above 7%. The Bank of Korea will review its policy rate too but no change is expected.Over the weekend, China reported that its foreign direct investment inflows were still struggling in October, but they were at least positive in the month. They rose marginally more in the October 2025 month than in the weak October 2024 month. For all of 2025 so far, these flows are still -10% lower that the same period last year.In India, their very strong economic activity expansion eased in November, but only slightly and is still rocketing along at a very fast pace in both their services and factory sectors. But of note here is that price pressures are easing.Japanese exports came in stronger in October than expected, up +3.6% from a year ago when a +1% rise was anticipated. That dovetails into a better than expected 'flash' November factory PMI for Japan - but it isn't yet quite at the expansion level. But their 'flash' services PMI certainly is and it expanded faster in October than expected.And the Bank of Japan is close to raising their policy interest rate above the current 0.5% when they next meet on December 18, 2025. If not then, then in the January meeting.In Europe, ratings agency Moody's has upgraded Italy's sovereign rating one notch to “Baa2” (ie BBB) and revised its outlook from positive to stable. They said Italy's consistent track record of political and policy stability has allowed their first upgrade in 23 yearsIn the US, the S&P Global factory PMI dipped but is still reporting an expansion (51.9). Their services sector expanded faster to a moderate level (55.0), and this was better than expected. Of concern however is that these surveys report input cost inflation accelerated sharply in November, hitting its fastest rate for three years. Of course, tariff-taxes were the predominant reason cited. It may seem unlikely there would be a rate cut on December 11 (NZT) when the Fed next meets, but one important Fed member does still see a cut possibility.Business activity might be expanding, but American consumer sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan survey confirms it is now at record lows. The final November survey reports consumers are very frustrated about the persistence of high prices and weakening incomes. The spoils of expansion and success are accruing to a very few which is building a toxic divide there. Holiday weekend retail sales data will tell us a lot about how most American consumers are feeling about the lead-in to 2026.On the trade front, it appears the much-heralded resumption of soybean purchases by China from the US, isn't happening apart from token trades.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.06%, down -1 bp from this time Saturday, down -8 bps for the week.The price of gold will start today at US$4064/oz, and down -US$20 from Saturday. But down -US$34 for the week.American oil prices have largely held from Saturday to be just on US$58/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$62.50/bbl. These are both down -US$2 for the week.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56.1 USc, and unchanged from Saturday but down -70 bps for the week. So far in November it has devalued by -2.3%. Against the Aussie we are holding at 86.9 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 48.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 60.9, little-changed from Saturday, but down -50 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$86,576 and up +2.3% from Saturday. A week ago it was at US$95,780 so it is down -9.9% since then.. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with markets investors are looking sceptically at restarted US data and the outstanding Nvidia result.First, the American initial jobless claims reporting has restarted, and they say 216,700 new people filed for these benefits last week, up from 214,000 in the same week a year ago. There are now 1.727 mln people on these benefits, up from 1.66 mln a year ago and the highest since 2021.And for the record, they released their September non-farm payrolls report overnight too, claiming +119,000 new jobs created in the month. The non-seasonally adjusted data records a rise from the same month a year earlier of +1.2 mln, the least year-on-year rise since the pandemic. The related wage growth data was weak. And they also announced that they will not be releasing an October report.Meanwhile, the Philly Fed factory survey for October weakened again, including for factory orders. Inflation pressures were reported as higher. Despite all this extended depressed state, these firms say they are optimistic about the future.It was the inverse story for the same report from the Kansas City Fed. Current conditions were mildly positive and stable, cost pressures eased, but future prospects are less enthusiastic. New order levels dipped here too, but only slightly.In Canada, their October PPI came in +6.0% higher than year-ago levels, a rise. They may be surviving the trade war punishment from the US, but it is coming with higher costs.In Taiwan, their October export orders rose +25% from the same month a year ago. As high as that is, it just continues the stellar expansion they have reported all year.In China, they say they are going to extend their trade-in subsidy program, to keep their modest consumer spending levels underpinned.And as widely anticipated, the People's Bank of China kept its key lending rates at record lows for a sixth consecutive month in November. But there is increasing talk that they will be [pressured into reducing them at some stage to weigh against below-target growth.In Europe, German producer prices fell in October, down -1.8% from the same month a year ago.In Australia, the IMF told them that they should hike their GST, abandon their tax cuts, and spend more carefully if it wants to keep a fiscally sustainable economy.And Australia released its GDP by State (they call it GSP). On a real basis for the year to June 2025, NSW expanded +0.9%, Victoria by +1.1%, Queensland by +2.2%, South Australia by +1.0% and Western Australia by +1.3% from the equivalent 2023/24 year. The national rise was +1.4%. But on a per capita basis, only Queensland and Tasmania recorded gains. Nationally it was a -0.3% decline per capita.Global freight rates for container cargoes were unchanged over the past week, to sit -46% lower than year ago levels. But the weekly change masks rising outbound China to Europe rates, while outbound China to the US rates are falling. Meanwhile, bulk cargo freight rates rose +11% over the past week and are now +39% higher than a year ago.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.11%, unchanged from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4055/oz, and down -US$16 from this time yesterday.American oil prices have softened another -50 USc from yesterday to be just under US$59/bbl, with the international Brent price little-changed and still under US$63.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56 USc, and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 86.8 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 48.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 60.7, and little-changed from yesterday, and still its lowest since July 2009.The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,411 and down another -2.4% from yesterday and -11% below year-ago levels. In fact, it is falling as we publish. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.
Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with markets are even more skittish today, with key activity moving into bond markets even at higher yields.First, American mortgage applications fell back last week and by their most since late September. Fears about rising interest rates are getting the blame as it sinks in that highish inflation isn't going away. Refinance activity was the hardest hit. Still, it and purchase application levels remain well above year-ago levels.There was also official data released overnight, old catchup data for the US trade balance for both goods and services. That came in at the expected -US$50 bln deficit for August, exports flat, imports also flat. That was slightly better than August 2024 but almost identical to August 2023.And there will be no October jobs report from the US. It has been cancelled, officially because they "couldn't collect some data", but more likely because it would have delivered news the White House didn't want.Meanwhile reports circulate that the US is not only rolling back tariff-taxes on food imports, it is also close to rolling them back on steel and aluminium, maybe like the food rollback, somewhat selectively.The latest US Treasury 20 year bond auction raised US$17.8 bln at a median yield of 4.65%, up from 4.46% at the prior equivalent auction a month ago.The US Fed minutes of their last meeting on October 30 are due to be released at 8AM NZT. There is intense interest in these, more so because Trump as one acolyte in on the meetings pushing for [dangerous] rate cuts. If there is important stuff that emerges, we will update this item here.In Japan, September machinery orders rose a better-than-expected +11.6% from the same month a year earlier, up an impressive +4.2% from August. (This result is not twisted by large, volatile items like for ships or major infrastructure machinery such as electric power plants. That would have pushed the rise even higher.) Export orders were particularly notable.And Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose above 1.77% on Wednesday, a 17-year high. A year ago it was at 1.06%. The recent climb comes ahead of a crucial ¥800 bln debt auction (US$5.1 bln) that could indicate investor appetite signals. That is important because the new Takaichi government plans major debt-financed stimulus which is raising fiscal concerns.Meanwhile, China has raised US$8.6 bln in USD and EUR bonds. While that is a lot for them, it pales compared to the US$234 bln that was bidIn Malaysia, they are still an export powerhouse with October exports up +15.7% from a year ago and to a record high, imports up +11.2%, also a record high, resulting in a larger positive trade balance than expected. In fact, they haven't run a trade deficit in any month since the pandemic.As expected, the Indonesian central bank left its policy rate unchanged yesterday at 4.75%.In Australia, payroll costs rose pretty much as expected in the September quarter. They were up +3.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, unchanged from the previous quarter. Public sector wages increased +3.8%, slightly above the +3.7% rise in Q2, while private sector wages grew by +3.2%, easing from +3.4% previously. (Overall, total wages and salaries for all employees rose +5.3% for the year to September, boosted by an expanding workforce.)The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.11%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4071/oz, and up +US$10 from this time yesterday.American oil prices have softened -50 USc from yesterday to be just under US$59.50/bbl, with the international Brent price down to under US$63.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56 USc, and down -60 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 86.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -40 bps at 48.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 60.7, and down -50 bps from yesterday, to its lowest since July 2009.And we probably should note that the NZD has now fallen below 4 Chinese renminbi for the first time in three years.The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,524 and down a sharp -4.2% from yesterday and well lower than year-ago levels. In fact, it is falling as we publish. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news risk aversion is the theme of the day for investors who seem particularly jittery about AI valuations, crypto prices, and the prospects for the US economy.But first, we start today with the results of another full dairy auction, and they aren't good. Not so much because the overall result was down -3.0% in USD terms, more because that makes it seven declines in a row from early August, taking the cumulative drop to -13%. And the recent retreats seem to be getting more intense. We now have prices lower than year-ago levels. And the decline in USD is being matched by the decline in NZD now, down -2.9% in this latest event.Clearly analysts will be dusting off their current season payout forecasts because they are risk of being downgraded. Behind the softness is a faster-than-expected rise in dairy production levels due to good weather conditions globally. That is as true for New Zealand as anywhere, where milk production is rising. The pointy end of this pressure is the butter price, and that dropped -7.6% at this latest auction. WMP was down a lesser -1.9%, SMP down only -0.6%.In the US, the ADP weekly payrolls report delivered another drop, the one for the week to November 1 not as sharp as the prior week however. This data suggests the US labour market lost momentum in late October, with a number of large companies announcing job cuts during the month, including Amazon and Target.Official data releases are being restarted in the US, but the data is old now. Overnight they said August factory orders rose to be +2.0% higher than year-ago levels. But because this is not inflation-adjusted and the past US PPI rise was +2.6%, it probably means shrinkage in real terms. There has been no indication this things have improved from August.And restarted official jobless claims data is only for October 18, but it rose then to +232,000 and above the expected level of +223,000. Continuing claims were a touch under 2 mln (1.96 mln) and notably above the 1.85 mln in the same week in 2024.The US NAHB housing market index came in essentially unchanged for October from September and -17% lower than year-ago levels. But they will be pleased it didn't drop back.Yesterday we reported a good improvement for factories in the New York region. But today the report for the very much bigger services sector in the same region has remained very negative.We could perhaps note that the Atlanta Fed monitors home loan affordability for the US is a similar way we do for New Zealand. They say that in September 2025, 43% of take-home pay was required to service an American mortgage and that is 'unaffordable'. They say affordability starts when it is 30% or less. (Our New Zealand September HLA was 33.0%.)In Canada, housing starts dropped sharply in October to their lowest in six month and to levels lower than the same month a year agoThe Australian central bank released the minutes of its last meeting on November 4 yesterday, closely-watched because they have rising inflation and a relatively strong labour market. But they downplayed both aspects, calling them 'slight' and expecting them to be transitory. Policy was still viewed as slightly restrictive, and the board saw “no need to adjust” the cash rate. They said patience was deemed appropriate while assessing spare capacity, labour trends, and policy stance. Scenarios supporting a hold included stronger demand, lower supply capacity, or a view that policy was no longer restrictive. Conversely, further easing could be warranted if labour conditions weaken or growth disappoints. Basically, you don't learn anything by reading these minutes.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.14%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4061/oz, and down -US$6 from this time yesterday.American oil prices have softened very slightly from yesterday to be just under US$60/bbl, with the international Brent price down -50 USc to US$64/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56.6 USc, and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 87 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 48.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.2, and down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$93,460 and down -0.4% from yesterday and it is still lower than year-ago levels. At one point in the past 24 hours it dipped below US$90,000. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news there are more twists and turns in international trade to report today.But first in the US, the NY Empire factory survey came in positively in November, on the back of a good rise in new orders. But they got a similar jump in November 2024, and this latest 2025 result is -7.5% lower than that.In Canada their inflation rate dipped slightly in October to 2.2% from 2.4% in September, and far less than the 3.0% and rising inflation rate last reported in their southern neighbour. Canadian petrol prices fell sharply, and the steam seems to have gone out of their grocery prices.Meanwhile, foreign investors are finding Canadian securities attractive, raising theri holdings sharply. They increased them by +C$31.3 bln in September, an unusual spike for a month that usually attracts only modest levels. Canadians themselves are choosing local securities increasingly too, in a substantial out-of-cycle rise of their own.In China, there is increasing talk that the weekend's very soft economic data will bring rate cuts to their loan prime rates when they are next reviewed on Thursday, even a cut in their reserve ratio requirement of banks. Both are currently at record low levels already.In something of a big positive surprise, Singapore's October non-oil exports rose sharply to S$17.2 bln, up more than +23% from year-ago levels up +15% from September. That is up from the +7% rise in September. Their non-oil exports to Thailand rose a massive +91%, to Taiwan a massive +61%, to South Korea by +38%. Going the other way, their exports to the US dropped -12%, and to both China and Japan were virtually unchanged.India exports fell almost -12% in October from a year ago, but Indian imports surged more than +16% in the same month. Indian exports to the US fell notably. That has resulted in a huge merchandise trade deficit blowout of -US$41.7 bln and by far and away their largest trade deficit. Fortunately they run trade surpluses for services, but even after than it was still a record -US$22 bln deficit and more than double year-ago levels.And we should note that aluminium prices, which are already very high, are likely to rise further on tight supply. Rio Tinto is adding surcharges on shipments to the US, where prices are globally elevated anyway due to tariffs, due to the supply shortage and the need for American to have to pay to get the product. That cascades through to consumer prices and inflation. These cost increases will be particularly troublesome for US-made cars.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.13%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4067/oz, and down -US$14 from this time yesterday.American oil prices have held from yesterday to be just over US$60/bbl, with the international Brent price still just under US$64.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56.7 USc, and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 87.1 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 48.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.3, and also little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$93,687 and down -0.5% from yesterday and it is now lower than year-ago levels. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news inflation is rising more quickly in one large economy, the US, and policymakers and financial markets are getting skittish.Firstly, this week will be dominated by the Reserve Bank of Australia's release of the minutes of its November 5 meeting. There will be intense interest on their views of inflation risks. Then the US Fed will release the minutes of its October 30 meeting and observers will be looking for similar clues.Locally we will get another full dairy auction, and trade data this week, preceded this morning by the REINZ October results at 9am.Trade, inflation and PMI data will be coming from a range of countries. From the US, we await how they will be catching up with their official data releases. There will be the usual prosaic private sector data releases but the new weekly ADP employment data will bring intense interest, as will some earnings reports, especially from Nvidia.There will be little major data this coming week from China, because they released most of it this past weekend. And that was headlined by an big unexpected negative surprise from their fixed asset investment data. They said it fell -1.7% for the year to October. But that belies a huge -11% drop in the month from the same month a year earlier. For a country as large as China, that is a mammoth and sudden shift. The really large decrease was in the industrial northeast region. And it is puzzling analysts, especially in the light of the electricity data surge. Perhaps a clue is in this factoid in their data release: "fixed asset investment by foreign-invested enterprises decreased by 12.1%". The slump raises important questions about the health of their domestic demand which is still over-reliant on exporting. The internal economy still hasn't gotten over the real estate slump and the resulting defensive change in attitudes by their consumers.China's new home prices in October across their 70 major cities were unchanged from September, officially, but dropped -2.2% from the same month a year ago. This was the same year-on-year decline they had in September. Most analysts expected a lesser decline of -2.0%. Seven of the 70 cities posited modest year-on-year price gains. None posted any gains for resales.Meanwhile, China's retail sales held up better than expected, up +2.9% from a year ago with better holiday spending. Their official industrial production was up +4.9% from a year ago in October, a rather large easing in their 6.0% September growth rate.China's electricity production fell in October, but that was less than expected and less that the usual seasonal pattern so it was up an unusually large +7.9% from a year ago. That may have something to do with the electricity appetite by AI infrastructure.In India, bank loan growth stayed very high in October to easily a new record, even if the percentage rise wasn't as high as September. That is now three consecutive months where new debt has risen by more than +11% from the same month a year ago.In Canada, they released some September data over the weekend and it was quite positive. Their manufacturing sales rose +2.7% real, and their wholesale trade rose +0.6% real, both from August. Year-on-year it isn't so positive although manufacturing sales are almost back to those levels (-0.8%) after being down -4.1% in May. Both data sets indicate remarkable resilience, and their fast transition even after being dumped-on capriciously by the US.And there was some interesting data out over the weekend from the EU, where their trade surplus rose to +€19 bln in September. That was its best in five months and +50% better that year ago results. Driving the gains were exports to the US and the UK, offset somewhat by imports from India and Mexico. Imports from the US rose too but at a slower pace than the export activity. Imports from South Korea fell sharply. Trade activity with China was little-changed although it remains deeply negative (that is, more imports from China than exports to China).In the US there are clear signs investors are getting quite skittish about the risks of bonds tied to AI companies. Don't forget bonds have priority over equities, so the dive for insurance on bonds isn't a great sign. Bloomberg is reporting the demand for credit default swaps is surging for these bonds and they cite what is happening in Oracle's case. A surge in debt is expected to flood debt markets soon as these AI companies ramp up funding of their plans.And there is the news that Trump is now rolling back some of his tariff-taxes, because even he can see they have caused household inflation and the 'affordability crisis' he is being blamed for. US inflation pressure is moving the dial in money markets. The chance of a Fed rate cut on December 11 (NZT) is fading, and quite quickly, as professional traders scale back the bets on a cut rather sharply.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.15%, up another +1 bp from Saturday at this time up +7 bps for the week.The price of gold will start today at US$4081/oz, and down -US$17 from this time yesterday. That is up +US$17 for the week.American oil prices have held from Saturday to be just over US$60/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$64.50/bbl, up less than +US$1 from a week ago.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56.8 USc, and unchanged from Saturday, up +60 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 86.9 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 48.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.3, little-changed from yesterday, up +60 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$94,374 and down another -1.5% from yesterday. That is its lowest since May 2025 and down -8.9% for the week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that we have unexpectedly weak data from China and unexpectedly strong data from Australia.But first in the US, it is back to work for their Federal government after the record 43 day shutdown impasse ends - at least until January 30 when the current deal needs renewal again. Missed official data releases there may in fact be skipped, so there may not be a catch-up until the next scheduled releases.Meanwhile, American companies continue with their big job cuts.Across the Pacific in China, their new yuan loan levels for October came in unexpectedly weak. They dropped sharply to just ¥220 bln, down from ¥1.3 tln in September and ¥500 bln in October last year. Markets had expected ¥500 bln, so the actual data underscores the continued weakness in credit demand. To put it in perspective, apart from July's unusual dip, this October result is their weakest of any month in at least ten years.After a disappointing retreat in August, EU industrial production bounced back far less in September than expected. It is now only +1.2% higher (real) than a year ago, less than the expected +2.1% rise most analysts had anticipated. They will be disappointed, but for them at least it is still growing in real terms.In Australia, they delivered another very strong set of employment data with jobs expanding by +42,200 and full time jobs expanding by +55,300. Their jobless rate fell more than expected to 4.2% (NZ is 5.3%.) This, along with inflation above target, will have the RBA thinking hard about their December 9 cash rate target which is currently 3.6%. Aussie bond yields spiked higher on the news, taking the NZGB yields up with them.Australian consumer inflation expectations slipped slightly to 4.5% in November from 4.8% in October, the lowest reading since August. Actual CPI inflation in September came in at 3.5%.Also in Australia, the opposition Liberal Party has dumped its commitment to net zero policies, a capitulation that will likely isolate it further from the electorate. It will now really struggle to hold its big city electorates from spirited challenges by teal candidates. In an odd 'compromise' they committed to staying in the Paris Agreement, but without Net Zero that is just greenwashing which will fool no-one. We are probably witnessing the demise of a political party that once was their 'natural' governing political force. Australia will now need a proper liberal opposition to Labor, maybe one born out of the teals.Just as the Aussie Liberals were making that Trumpish decision, the IEA released its 2025 World Energy Outlook. It concluded that technology has moved so far so fast that "options to reduce emissions substantially are well understood and, in many cases, cost effective." From here, staying with fossil fuels will come with cost penalties.Globally, freight rates for containerised cargoes dipped -5% this past week mainly on China-US rates, although China-EU rates rose marginally. Overall that makes them -46% lower than year-ago levels. Bulk freight rates are little-changed this week, to be +25% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.10%, up +4 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$4198/oz, up another +US$8 from this time yesterday. It is rising again but it is still below its record US$4350 on October 21, 2025. Silver is moving up too, now at US$53/oz but again still lower than its its recent peak of US$54.50 on October 17, 2025American oil prices have recovered +50 USc from yesterday to be just on US$59/bbl, with the international Brent price now over US$63/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56.7 USc, and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we have held at 86.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 48.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.2 and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$101,032 and down another -0.6% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.
Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that with the Indian subcontinent on the edge of armed conflict and tit-for-tat terrorist moves and retaliation, the world's economy is ignoring these new risks.First up today, the US House of Representatives is set to vote to end their latest and record-long shutdown, and by the time you read this, have probably approved the compromise. This has seen Wall Street react with a split personality. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen to a new record high. But the broader S&P500 is becalmed, and the Nasdaq is lower. The bond market is more risk-averse. The USD is weakening. Just guessing here, but it seems markets think the shutdown pain was a wasted exercise and the result will be negative for the giant US economy. Rebooting their economy won't be easy.Meanwhile, US mortgage applications were little-changed last week, with the refinance market dipping slightly and the smaller new purchase market rising, actually with a notable increase. This came despite mortgage rates rising in the week.And more Americans than ever are falling behind on their car payments. According to Fitch Ratings, the share of subprime borrowers at least 60 days past due on their car loans rose to 6.65% in October, the highest in data tracking that started in 1994. And selling a used car to pay off the debt won't help. Record numbers of people doing that still owe loan balances after these sales.A well-supported US Treasury 10yr bond auction today brought a median yield of 4.02%, down from 4.06% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In Canada, there were more positive economic signals. Building consents rose in September from August more than expected, led by multi-family projects in Alberta and Quebec and single-family homes in Ontario. But overall, they were still -8% lower than year-ago levels.In Japan, machine tool orders rose in October by more than +17% from the same month in 2024, driven by a +21% rise in export orders. They would have been happy about the +6% rise in orders from local manufacturers too.In China, residential real estate developers are under pressure to generate cash - again. Meeting year-end sales targets is crucial to hold on to their finance lifelines. So there are not only steep discounts on offer, but other creative incentives, such as "move in, buy later". One Guangzhou developer as a scheme where buyers front with a ¥100,000 deposit (NZ$25,000), move in for one month, and if they are not happy can move out with the only cost being one month's rent.In Malaysia, they have a buoyant retail sector with retail sales rising +7% in September from a year ago, accelerating from the +5% gain in the previous month. It was up +4.3% in volume terms and was their largest increase since January.In India, CPI inflation there has fallen to a record low +0.3% pa, down from +1.4% in September. Driving this is -5% deflation for food. In turn, that was caused by very good food growing conditions and heavy haervests.The RBI has an inflation target range of 2%-6% and this was the third consecutive month it has been below the bottom of that target. They will likely now move to cut their 5.5% policy rate soon, maybe at their next meeting on December 5, 2025.In Australia, the value of new owner-occupier home loan commitments rose +9.8% in September from a year ago. Investment lending for housing soared +18.7% on the same basis to a record high. The housing surge is in full flight of unbridled enthusiasm.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.06%, down -1 bp from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$4190/oz, up another +US$77 from this time yesterday.American oil prices have dropped hard by -US$2.50 higher from yesterday to just on US$58.50/bbl, with the international Brent price just over US$62.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56.6 USc, and little-changed from yesterday. Against the Aussie we have dipped -10 bps to 86.6 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 48.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.2 and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$101,589 and down another -1.9% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
The Ronin returns to hunt more Sith while a former Jedi Grandmaster seeks him out for revenge in the first installment of Star Wars: Visions Volume 3. In this fully armed and operational episode of Podcast Stardust, we discuss: Our overall thoughts on this episode, Our fondness for the character of the Ronin, The music behind this anime short, The introduction of the Twi-lek Sith Aneé-San, The aesthetic of the environment and the classic Star Wars details incorporated therein, The former Jedi Grandmaster and his quest for revenge against the Ronin, and more. For our discussion of "The Duel" from volume one of Visions, check out episode 317. Thanks for joining us for another episode! Subscribe to Podcast Stardust for all your Star Wars news, reviews, and discussion wherever you get your podcasts. And please leave us a five star review on Apple Podcasts. Find Jay and her cosplay adventures on J.Snips Cosplay on Instagram. Follow us on social media: Twitter | Facebook | Instagram | Pinterest | YouTube. T-shirts, hoodies, stickers, masks, and posters are available on TeePublic. Find all episodes on RetroZap.com.
MUSICINTHEAIR @Villahangar #PodcastShow THIS WEEK presents >> @ovrgvls [EPISODE 400-45] TRACKLIST: 01. Canto das tres Racas - Diogo Strausz [Razor N Tape] 02. Bongolie - Darco, Dvirnuns [melody lab] 03. Sign O the Times - Prince (Moontalk edit) 04. Flashdance - Shai T remix [Armada music] 05. Amazon - Genaro Nvilla [North Drum] 06. Vini Ouais - Art of tones remix [Heavenly Sweetness] 07. Call of the wild - Dam Swindle [Heist Recordings] 08. The Request - Alex Twin, Christian Lepah [Villahangar] 09. More with less - Malive remix [Madorasindahouse] 10. Disco Copa - Pablo Fierro [were here] 11. Randoree - Cheza Sasa [were here] 12. Come around - black circle, reezna remix [Hive audio] 13. Above the clouds - the organism [organic tunes] 14. Surrender - Super Flu (Monaberry) 15. Please - Frankey & Sandrino [rekids] 16. Twi;ight Sparksong - Sentrica Site -> www.villahangar.com FB -> www.facebook.com/villahangar TT -> www.twitter.com/Villahangar
In this bonus episode of Lean Blog Interviews, Mark Graban is joined by William Harvey, AME 2025 Workshop Chair (and 2026 Conference Chair), to preview the AME Annual Conference coming up in St. Louis, October 6–9, 2025. Topics We Discuss ✅ Why AME is for all continuous improvement leaders—not just manufacturing ✅ The 2025 conference theme: Gateway to the Future – AI and Beyond ✅ How AME is blending AI and people integration into learning and networking ✅ Four key workshop tracks, including coaching, TWI, AI, and process excellence ✅ Mark's own Deming Red Bead Game & Process Behavior Charts workshop Whether you're in healthcare, services, or manufacturing, AME offers a unique chance to learn from practitioners, connect with peers, and gain new insights into operational and leadership excellence.
This week's guest is Don Kieffer. Ron and Don discussed the concept of dynamic work design, their individual takes on AI, Don's book, and more. An MP3 audio version of this episode is available for download here. In this episode you'll learn: Don's quotes (2:13) His background (5:23) Why Don wrote his book (9:35) What a dynamic work design is (13:46) Don's process (16:34) Some example situations (18:45) What has surprised Don (22:10) Don's take on AI (24:59) Achieving the right balance using dynamic work design (30:02) How it compares to TWI (32:46) Don's final words of wisdom (34:22) Podcast Resources Right Click to Download this Podcast as an MP3 There's Got to Be a Better Way The Most Underrated Skill in Management Get All the Latest News from Gemba Academy Our newsletter is a great way to receive updates on new courses, blog posts, and more. Sign up here. What Do You Think? Have you used dynamic work design before?
What happens when two accomplished psychotherapists discover, well into adulthood, that they have ADHD? In this thought-provoking episode, host Diann Wingert welcomes Lisa Lackey, a licensed therapist, coach, speaker, and community builder, to candidly explore their parallel journeys of late diagnosis, high achievement, and the transformative power of midlife self-discovery.Together, they unpack what it means to awaken to neurodivergence after decades of "successful" living, the intersection of menopause and mental health, and the unique journey women take as they move from striving and struggle toward authenticity and fulfillment in their second act.Guest Bio: Lisa Lackey (she/her)Lisa Lackey is a licensed psychotherapist, coach, and speaker with decades of experience supporting high-achieving individuals facing addiction, anxiety, depression, and now, navigating the complexities of neurodiversity and midlife transitions. After being diagnosed with ADHD later in life, Lisa transformed her approach—creating supportive spaces for women, particularly Black women, to rediscover their authentic selves, reclaim joy, and build community in the second half of life. Lisa is passionate about spiritual growth, legacy work, and helping others write their own rules for fulfillment.Episode Highlights – What You'll LearnWhy ADHD is often missed in high-achieving women, and how self-awareness—and even reading the “right” book—can be a game changer.How hyper-competence, overachievement, and the ability to "make it work" can hide ADHD symptoms for decades.Understanding how hormonal changes bring ADHD and identity struggles front and center for so many women in midlife.Lisa's concept of the “second knowing”- waking up in midlife, letting go of societal shoulds, and connecting to your true purpose and inner wisdom.How women—especially women of color—can build new definitions of success, heal generational burdens, and lift each other up.Connect with Lisa LackeyWebsite: Inside Out RecoveryLinkedIn: Lisa Lackey on LinkedInMentioned by our guest:Driven to Distraction by Ned Hallowell, MD - the book Lisa read in 2 hours & recognized her own ADHD Bell Hooks - Black author, best known for her work on race, feminism & social class Sankofa - a word in the Twi language of Ghana, meaning “to retrieve” If something in this episode struck a chord, share it with a friend, leave us a review, or drop a comment on Spotify about your own late diagnosis and mid life awakening. © 2025 ADHD-ish Podcast. Intro music by Ishan Dincer / Melody Loops / Outro music by Vladimir / Bobi Music / All rights reserved.
What happens when two accomplished psychotherapists discover, well into adulthood, that they have ADHD? In this thought-provoking episode, host Diann Wingert welcomes Lisa Lackey, a licensed therapist, coach, speaker, and community builder, to candidly explore their parallel journeys of late diagnosis, high achievement, and the transformative power of midlife self-discovery.Together, they unpack what it means to awaken to neurodivergence after decades of "successful" living, the intersection of menopause and mental health, and the unique journey women take as they move from striving and struggle toward authenticity and fulfillment in their second act.Guest Bio: Lisa Lackey (she/her)Lisa Lackey is a licensed psychotherapist, coach, and speaker with decades of experience supporting high-achieving individuals facing addiction, anxiety, depression, and now, navigating the complexities of neurodiversity and midlife transitions. After being diagnosed with ADHD later in life, Lisa transformed her approach—creating supportive spaces for women, particularly Black women, to rediscover their authentic selves, reclaim joy, and build community in the second half of life. Lisa is passionate about spiritual growth, legacy work, and helping others write their own rules for fulfillment.Episode Highlights – What You'll LearnWhy ADHD is often missed in high-achieving women, and how self-awareness—and even reading the “right” book—can be a game changer.How hyper-competence, overachievement, and the ability to "make it work" can hide ADHD symptoms for decades.Understanding how hormonal changes bring ADHD and identity struggles front and center for so many women in midlife.Lisa's concept of the “second knowing”- waking up in midlife, letting go of societal shoulds, and connecting to your true purpose and inner wisdom.How women—especially women of color—can build new definitions of success, heal generational burdens, and lift each other up.Connect with Lisa LackeyWebsite: Inside Out RecoveryLinkedIn: Lisa Lackey on LinkedInMentioned by our guest:Driven to Distraction by Ned Hallowell, MD - the book Lisa read in 2 hours & recognized her own ADHD Bell Hooks - Black author, best known for her work on race, feminism & social class Sankofa - a word in the Twi language of Ghana, meaning “to retrieve” If something in this episode struck a chord, share it with a friend, leave us a review, or drop a comment on Spotify about your own late diagnosis and mid life awakening. © 2025 ADHD-ish Podcast. Intro music by Ishan Dincer / Melody Loops / Outro music by Vladimir / Bobi Music / All rights reserved.
Voxify: AI Voice Assistant for Small Business w/ David Duguan - AZ TRT S06 EP14 (276) 8-3-2025 What We Learned This Week AI Assistant software Aurora for phones Small Business are overwhelmed with many aspects of business from sales to customer service Bad Customer Service costs $ in lost revenue AI Adoption by business is growing as they go from not knowing, to known David is from Ghana in Africa, & tried Soccer, then a DR, to finally land a Tech career Guest: David Duguan, CEO of Voxify, https://hellovoxify.com/ About David Duguan David Duguan is a Ghanaian born and raised entrepreneur, founder and CEO of Voxify. A human innovation company focused on automating and increasing business performance serving the 16 trillion dollar small to medium business market. He was formerly the CTO of a seven-figure tech startup, Visual Solution Nexus. With experience spanning technical leadership, product management, and team-building, he balances big-picture strategy with focused execution. He attended Ball State University and Indiana University Purdue University Indianapolis and studied science. He is also highly skilled in building scalable and efficient technology infrastructure and is a Certified AWS Cloud Architect. He is multilingual with fluency in English, Twi, Fanti and conversational in French, and has a passion for music, good African food, cars, golf, design, art, and cigars. Voxify focused on empowering small business to accelerate growth with an AI Powered phone assistant, Aurora. The platform has proven to fuel new revenue streams for business. In fact, one of Voxify's customers, a small window cleaning company recovered $90,000 in previously lost revenue within a few months. The AI-powered voice automation company transforms how small and mid-sized businesses stay competitive in a fast-moving world. Ultimately the company is redefining business communications for small to medium business which is an addressable US$130billion dollar market opportunity. Aurora Hub ensures businesses never miss a call, automatically handles customer inquiries, and helps owners focus on what matters most—growing their business. Whether it's capturing leads after hours, streamlining Respond to Customer Instantly: Keeps businesses connected 24/7 so every call, lead, or inquiry is captured—no more lost business. Boosts Revenue and ROI: Converts missed calls into booked jobs, helping businesses grow without increasing overhead. Personalized and Customizable AI: Aurora adapts to each business, acting as a seamless extension of staff—not just a tool, but a trusted liaison with real sentiment supporting 29 languages. Delivers Confidence and Control: Owners gain peace of mind knowing communications are handled professionally, even outside of business hours with phone, SMS, web and email. Data at your fingertips: Aurora real-time actionable insights to better understand your business opportunities. Save Time and Money: By handling routine tasks and follow-ups automatically, Aurora reduces the need for extra staff, minimizes scheduling mistakes, and frees up owners to focus on what matters most Keep your customers happy: Aurora ensures prompt, friendly, and accurate responses every time—no hold music, no missed calls. With human-like sentiment and multilingual support, customers feel heard and valued, increasing satisfaction and loyalty across every channel Aurora AI Assistant - has proven to fuel new revenue streams for business and for one small window cleaning company Notes: Voxify Segment 1 Sam Walton, who started Walmart, said the business has only one boss, the customer. Every business needs good customer support, but it rarely gets the attention it needs. Many small businesses are overwhelmed, and allways need to make more revenue. Solution to this problem, introduce Voxify, the AI assistant, that can also help with your internal data. In 2025, data is crucial to a business and helps keep you organized. There is an adoption level in AI that Voxify needs to get their clients to. Part of the problem is just education and awareness. It's not the fault of the business market. They're overwhelmed and unaware of what solutions are out there. Voxify product Aurora is easy to use, and gets over the gap of education. Average business with a solo operator loses calls. They also do not have enough customer insight which creates gaps in their business. Voxify tool solves this. You get the best customer support and you eliminate things customers hate like back-and-forth or voicemail tag. Clients see the outcome fast, and so to their customers. Voxify's real customers, are actually the customers of their customers. Company size of a typical client could be an HVAC, home, plumbing or some type of consultant company. Outcome from their service is an average ROI of 430%, you make more money and stem lost revenue. Services is like a virtual employee that answers the phones and can book a meeting. Educate businesses on the use of AI, need for better customer support and how not having this technology means lost revenue. Segment 2 How Voxify got started: David was working in an architecture startup firm on visuals. The firm had bad customer support. The way their projects worked for payment is half upfront and half at the end. Many payments were late and it was causing internal issues. They had an assistant and a VA answering the phones. This particular architecture firm was a niche market, hard to train on the phones. David had a thesis you could use AI and ChatGPT to build the technology for what they needed. He did this and then validated it with a 200 customers pre-launch. They did lots of research to improve the product. Voxify is a three-year-old company, and they created their main software Aurora in the spring of 2024. David is an immigrant, originally from Ghana, West Africa. Had no formal training in technology or business and had to learn of money as he went. Originally thought about playing soccer, then started to train to be a heart surgeon. Neither of these happened so he went into business. Segment 3 David joked that to succeed in life he was taught you had to be one of three careers, engineer, doctor, or attorney. He spent time working in biotech, and there learned his love to work on things and do research. Then he got the job as the CTO at the architecture visual startup, as a cloud architect. Cloud Architects design technology architecture for virtual machines or databases or software. “Invent our way out of the box, outside the box, outside the status quo.' Ask questions based on intention. Testing Software - Check the text spelling vs the Voice or phonetics. Had to handle customer complaints, check in 24 hours, and provide good customer service. The data portion is very important. Example: window cleaning company. AI assistant has to collect info and see what the customer wants. It's hard for these companies to do a customer baseline price. But customers want an estimated service price, and also what expedient fees would cost to do it fast faster. AI service can help with all of this. Voxify is chasing impact and change to bring down tech barriers. Solve problems with small to medium business and service based companies. Small business is 50% of the GDP in the US. Bring education on AI to the business community. Adoption needs two things: Going from you don't know, to you know. Once they know, and have been educated, easier to adopt the technology. Voxify AI software is $99 a month to start. Software can be trained very fast within a few minutes, just by scraping a client's website and learning the business. Then over time you talk to the AI and you make changes to the info and answers said on the phone. Create an SOP doc / standard operating procedure, outline the process of how the assistant needs to talk to your customers Biotech Shows: https://brt-show.libsyn.com/category/Biotech-Life+Sciences-Science AZ Tech Council Shows: https://brt-show.libsyn.com/size/5/?search=az+tech+council *Includes Best of AZ Tech Council show from 2/12/2023 Tech Topic: https://brt-show.libsyn.com/category/Tech-Startup-VC-Cybersecurity-Energy-Science Best of Tech: https://brt-show.libsyn.com/size/5/?search=best+of+tech ‘Best Of' Topic: https://brt-show.libsyn.com/category/Best+of+BRT Thanks for Listening. Please Subscribe to the AZ TRT Podcast. AZ Tech Roundtable 2.0 with Matt Battaglia The show where Entrepreneurs, Top Executives, Founders, and Investors come to share insights about the future of business. AZ TRT 2.0 looks at the new trends in business, & how classic industries are evolving. Common Topics Discussed: Startups, Founders, Funds & Venture Capital, Business, Entrepreneurship, Biotech, Blockchain / Crypto, Executive Comp, Investing, Stocks, Real Estate + Alternative Investments, and more… AZ TRT Podcast Home Page: http://aztrtshow.com/ ‘Best Of' AZ TRT Podcast: Click Here Podcast on Google: Click Here Podcast on Spotify: Click Here More Info: https://www.economicknight.com/azpodcast/ KFNX Info: https://1100kfnx.com/weekend-featured-shows/ Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the Hosts, Guests and Speakers, and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of any entities they represent (or affiliates, members, managers, employees or partners), or any Station, Podcast Platform, Website or Social Media that this show may air on. All information provided is for educational and entertainment purposes. Nothing said on this program should be considered advice or recommendations in: business, legal, real estate, crypto, tax accounting, investment, etc. Always seek the advice of a professional in all business ventures, including but not limited to: investments, tax, loans, legal, accounting, real estate, crypto, contracts, sales, marketing, other business arrangements, etc.
The Brothers Krynn return to share their fan fiction, The Kenobi Timeline. Inspired by the Legends novel, Secrets of the Jedi, the story follows the what-if scenario of Obi-Wan and Obi-Wan's lover, Siri secretly having a child. From there events unfold unexpectedly, especially with lesser-known companions of Anakin and Obi-Wan who are the focus of the narrative. Each of these characters has a fully fleshed-out backstory with motivations that weave into but never contradict the events of the Prequels. As you listen along, you can refer to the character glossary provided by the Brothers Krynn: Tahlon Kenobi: son of Obi-Wan Kenobi and Siri Tachi (Kenobi), Wields a double-sided Blue lightsaber, his style is Form IV (Ataru variant) Talanis Salazzar: Mandalorian warrior woman, 5 years older than Tahlon. Number one Mandalorian bounty-hunter after Jango Fett Darael Feran: Trandoshan Jedi Master, Wields double-sided Green lightsaber, his style is Form III (Soresu variant), Melirah Stardust's master before leaving the order to join the Jedi, who chose to leave to work with Dooku in the CIS Melirah Stardust: A young Jedi, same age as Anakini with Red hair, born on Tattooine to a Moisture Farmer, she is hot-headed, yet dreams of being a healer. She was Darael Feran's padawan. She is the most gifted seer of her generation. Her style is Form VI (Jar'Kai) (Form IV Ataru Variant) Her right-handed lightsaber is yellow, her left-handed one is blue Mi'kraan Darklighter: A young Jedi, born on the same day, same hour as Melirah, though the two are not related, they share a bond with each other. She is tall and blonde haired, statuesque, the more beautiful of the two. A gentle soul who specializes in diplomacy and teaching younglings. She dislikes violence in all its forms, and has requested to resign her military position, but has been refused. A favourite of Yoda. Her style is Form VI (Jar'Kai) (Form III Soresu variant) Her right-hand lightsaber is Green, her left-hand is Yellow Fergus Feld: One year older than Anakin, a personality like Sturm Brightblade (Dragonlance), is fanatically loyal to the order, and a good friend of Tahlon. He does not trust Anakin and thinks he will turn to the darkside, and in extension dislikes Obi-Wan, a favourite of Yoda, who was abused by his master, Yaduu. His lightsaber style is Form V, and Form VII (Shien/Djem-So and Juyo) his lightsaber colour is blue Grrwyan: A wookie Jedi Tahlon grew up with. He dislikes Tahlon. His style is Form V (Shien/Djem-So) His lightsaber colour is Blue Ivec'leba: A twi'lek initiate Tahlon grew up with, she was sold into slavery, and liberated by Millennia Far'lin. She dies in Tahlon's arms when he is an initiate Jedi Master Chirus: A half-Blind Solustan jedi, who exposed his previous padawan's affair with another jedi, which led her to commit suicide, which traumatized. He later becomes Tahlon's master, and is three years older than Dooku. He dies on Geonosis. His apprentice was a young woman by the name of Yasmina Shen. Her former lover fled with her child to the outer rim, and founded a Jedi cult which her widow and son will end up fighting in the clone wars on the side of the Republic, as Chirus made peace with him three years before he died. Chirus' style is Form VI (Niiman) His colour is Green. Millennia Farland: The daughter of a deceased freedom fighter of Ryloth, Millennia picked up his torch and his movement to liberate all the Twi'leks from the Hutts and the Exchange, she has since become the Senator of Renkloth. (We set the planet in the neighbouring star system next to Ryloth.) She is a firebrand, who is friends of Tahlon, hates the Hutts and consistently pushes for Republican interference in twi'lek affairs, and has become disillusioned with the Senate. She is also given a military commission for the Grand Army of the Republic. Alpha Squad: Tahlon's personal Commando unit. They consist of RC-1515 “Quinze” (Leader), RC-9888 “Zuko” (Demolitions), RC-0109 “Nate” (Weapons) and RC-2898 “Wyatt” (Tech Specialist) RC-1515 “Quinze”: The leader of Alpha Squad, he has a sardonic sense of humour, similar to that of Qui-Gon Jinn. He is also strict, and at times inflexible, and is very shy around beautiful women. He is force sensitive. RC-9888 “Zuko”: The Demolitions expert of Alpha Squad, he is argumentative, severe, who complains a lot, and has a bit of a temper. He is always arguing and fighting with Nate, and yet the two consider each other almost twins. RC-0109 “Nate”: The weapons expert: He is chatty, gabby, cheerful and friendly. Nate loves heavy-grade weaponry. He considers his voice a gift from the force. He also loves show tunes and pretty women. RC-2898 “Wyatt”: The Tech specialist, he is sarcastic, a little vain about his appearance, he has a superiority complex in regards to his IQ, and is the quiet member of the team, even as he considers himself a connoisseur of fine arts and pop stars. ARC-Commander 1139 “Hale”: Commander of the 339th Legion, he serves as Mi'kraan's clone commander. Where she dislikes violence, he revels in it. He is cold and calculating, and a General of the highest quality. He was one of the top graduates from Kamino in strategy and tactics. ARC-Commander 3615 “Boom”: Commander of the 431th Legion. Tahlon's clone commander, his solution to every problem is explosives, bombardment, and even more explosives. He is very good friends with Nate and Zuko. He is fairly cheerful by nature. ARC-Commander 1238 “Krath”: Commander of the 436th Legion. One of the most bloodthirsty clone commanders, and is absolutely ruthless. He believes in no mercy, and has a belief system akin to Canderous Ordo, except he scorns the disloyal and self-serving Mandalorians, and thinks that Clones are superior to them, as he does the Jedi, whom he holds in high regard. He is Melirah's clone commander. ARC-Commander 1138 “Crusher”: Commander of the 189th Legion. Another ruthless clone commander with a cold and impatient side, who believes people have to win his respect, as he hates incompetence, and has no patience for fools. He is the finest clone commander in the galaxy. He serves under Fergus, and has been lauded by Mace Windu. CT-1159 Sergeant “Muln”: A rambunctious, duty-obsessed starfighter pilot in the Republic Navy, he serves under Melirah, and is a quick shot, and impulsive pilot. He is named after Garen Muln, the finest pilot in the galaxy. Darin Pol: A Kel-Dor Martial Artist and security officer who volunteers for the navy, and is put in Melirah's Legion. will continuously reference Justice. He is wise, and the sworn brother of Sergeant Muln Darth Malignus: A Sith Knight trained by a Sith cult that swears itself to Count Dooku and the CIS, he is the top warrior of the cult, and is from the planet Sorrus. His lightsaber is the sith variant of Form VI (Jar'Kai, Form V Shien/Djem-So variant,) He is very much inspired by Dinobot from Beast Wars.
Devori does a war crime against Jeff and makes him watch what surely is the worst film ever watched on this pod.Host segments: existential dread not found; Taylor Lautner is wasted in this one; dying by misadventure vs. murder-bear; it's just shirts and skins; the Twilight to T. Swizzle pipeline.
While Obi-Wan Kenobi desperately pursues General Grievous, Captain Rex recovers from an injury and discovers a deserter from the clone army in this episode of The Clone Wars. In this fully armed and operational episode of Podcast Stardust, we discuss: Obi-Wan Kenobi's desperate pursuit of General Grievous, Suu, the Twi'lek wife to the deserter clone, Cut Lawquane, the clone that deserted from the Grand Army of the Republic to pursue a life his own choosing, Captain Rex's perception of Cut and their discussions, The attack of the Commando Droids, and The legacy of this episode of The Clone Wars. For more discussion of The Clone Wars, check out episode 903. Thanks for joining us for another episode! Subscribe to Podcast Stardust for all your Star Wars news, reviews, and discussion wherever you get your podcasts. And please leave us a five star review on Apple Podcasts. Find Jay and her cosplay adventures on J.Snips Cosplay on Instagram. Join us for real time discussion on the RetroZap Discord Server here: RetroZap Discord. Follow us on social media: Twitter | Facebook | Instagram | Pinterest | YouTube. T-shirts, hoodies, stickers, masks, and posters are available on TeePublic. Find all episodes on RetroZap.com.
The Brothers Krynn return to share their fan fiction idea, The Kenobi Timeline. Inspired by the Legends novel, Secrets of the Jedi, the story follows the what-if scenario of Obi-Wan and Obi-Wan's lover, Siri secretly having a child. From there events unfold unexpectedly, especially with lesser-known companions of Anakin and Obi-Wan who are the focus of the narrative. Each of these characters has a fully fleshed-out backstory with motivations that weave into but never contradict the events of the Prequels. Want more energy and essential vitamins for your day but want to limit your caffeine intake? Visit https://www.magicmind.com/swlc to get up to 48% off with my code: SWLC20 As you listen along, you can refer to the character glossary provided by the Brothers Krynn: Tahlon Kenobi: son of Obi-Wan Kenobi and Siri Tachi (Kenobi), Wields a double-sided Blue lightsaber, his style is Form IV (Ataru variant) Talanis Salazzar: Mandalorian warrior woman, 5 years older than Tahlon. Number one Mandalorian bounty-hunter after Jango Fett Darael Feran: Trandoshan Jedi Master, Wields double-sided Green lightsaber, his style is Form III (Soresu variant), Melirah Stardust's master before leaving the order to join the Jedi, who chose to leave to work with Dooku in the CIS Melirah Stardust: A young Jedi, same age as Anakini with Red hair, born on Tattooine to a Moisture Farmer, she is hot-headed, yet dreams of being a healer. She was Darael Feran's padawan. She is the most gifted seer of her generation. Her style is Form VI (Jar'Kai) (Form IV Ataru Variant) Her right-handed lightsaber is yellow, her left-handed one is blue Mi'kraan Darklighter: A young Jedi, born on the same day, same hour as Melirah, though the two are not related, they share a bond with each other. She is tall and blonde haired, statuesque, the more beautiful of the two. A gentle soul who specializes in diplomacy and teaching younglings. She dislikes violence in all its forms, and has requested to resign her military position, but has been refused. A favourite of Yoda. Her style is Form VI (Jar'Kai) (Form III Soresu variant) Her right-hand lightsaber is Green, her left-hand is Yellow Fergus Feld: One year older than Anakin, a personality like Sturm Brightblade (Dragonlance), is fanatically loyal to the order, and a good friend of Tahlon. He does not trust Anakin and thinks he will turn to the darkside, and in extension dislikes Obi-Wan, a favourite of Yoda, who was abused by his master, Yaduu. His lightsaber style is Form V, and Form VII (Shien/Djem-So and Juyo) his lightsaber colour is blue Grrwyan: A wookie Jedi Tahlon grew up with. He dislikes Tahlon. His style is Form V (Shien/Djem-So) His lightsaber colour is Blue Ivec'leba: A twi'lek initiate Tahlon grew up with, she was sold into slavery, and liberated by Millennia Far'lin. She dies in Tahlon's arms when he is an initiate Jedi Master Chirus: A half-Blind Solustan jedi, who exposed his previous padawan's affair with another jedi, which led her to commit suicide, which traumatized. He later becomes Tahlon's master, and is three years older than Dooku. He dies on Geonosis. His apprentice was a young woman by the name of Yasmina Shen. Her former lover fled with her child to the outer rim, and founded a Jedi cult which her widow and son will end up fighting in the clone wars on the side of the Republic, as Chirus made peace with him three years before he died. Chirus' style is Form VI (Niiman) His colour is Green. Millennia Farland: The daughter of a deceased freedom fighter of Ryloth, Millennia picked up his torch and his movement to liberate all the Twi'leks from the Hutts and the Exchange, she has since become the Senator of Renkloth. (We set the planet in the neighbouring star system next to Ryloth.) She is a firebrand, who is friends of Tahlon, hates the Hutts and consistently pushes for Republican interference in twi'lek affairs, and has become disillusioned with the Senate. She is also given a military commission for the Grand Army of the Republic. Alpha Squad: Tahlon's personal Commando unit. They consist of RC-1515 “Quinze” (Leader), RC-9888 “Zuko” (Demolitions), RC-0109 “Nate” (Weapons) and RC-2898 “Wyatt” (Tech Specialist) RC-1515 “Quinze”: The leader of Alpha Squad, he has a sardonic sense of humour, similar to that of Qui-Gon Jinn. He is also strict, and at times inflexible, and is very shy around beautiful women. He is force sensitive. RC-9888 “Zuko”: The Demolitions expert of Alpha Squad, he is argumentative, severe, who complains a lot, and has a bit of a temper. He is always arguing and fighting with Nate, and yet the two consider each other almost twins. RC-0109 “Nate”: The weapons expert: He is chatty, gabby, cheerful and friendly. Nate loves heavy-grade weaponry. He considers his voice a gift from the force. He also loves show tunes and pretty women. RC-2898 “Wyatt”: The Tech specialist, he is sarcastic, a little vain about his appearance, he has a superiority complex in regards to his IQ, and is the quiet member of the team, even as he considers himself a connoisseur of fine arts and pop stars. ARC-Commander 1139 “Hale”: Commander of the 339th Legion, he serves as Mi'kraan's clone commander. Where she dislikes violence, he revels in it. He is cold and calculating, and a General of the highest quality. He was one of the top graduates from Kamino in strategy and tactics. ARC-Commander 3615 “Boom”: Commander of the 431th Legion. Tahlon's clone commander, his solution to every problem is explosives, bombardment, and even more explosives. He is very good friends with Nate and Zuko. He is fairly cheerful by nature. ARC-Commander 1238 “Krath”: Commander of the 436th Legion. One of the most bloodthirsty clone commanders, and is absolutely ruthless. He believes in no mercy, and has a belief system akin to Canderous Ordo, except he scorns the disloyal and self-serving Mandalorians, and thinks that Clones are superior to them, as he does the Jedi, whom he holds in high regard. He is Melirah's clone commander. ARC-Commander 1138 “Crusher”: Commander of the 189th Legion. Another ruthless clone commander with a cold and impatient side, who believes people have to win his respect, as he hates incompetence, and has no patience for fools. He is the finest clone commander in the galaxy. He serves under Fergus, and has been lauded by Mace Windu. CT-1159 Sergeant “Muln”: A rambunctious, duty-obsessed starfighter pilot in the Republic Navy, he serves under Melirah, and is a quick shot, and impulsive pilot. He is named after Garen Muln, the finest pilot in the galaxy. Darin Pol: A Kel-Dor Martial Artist and security officer who volunteers for the navy, and is put in Melirah's Legion. will continuously reference Justice. He is wise, and the sworn brother of Sergeant Muln Darth Malignus: A Sith Knight trained by a Sith cult that swears itself to Count Dooku and the CIS, he is the top warrior of the cult, and is from the planet Sorrus. His lightsaber is the sith variant of Form VI (Jar'Kai, Form V Shien/Djem-So variant,) He is very much inspired by Dinobot from Beast Wars.
Many thanks to listener Joshua for this brilliant episode idea - what was the Halcyon like for non-humans? We immediately thought of Twi'leks, thanks to our own Captain Ma'Li Ficent. As one of Star Wars' most beloved alien species, Twi'leks brought unique magic to the Galactic Starcruiser experience. We tracked down three renowned Twi'lek cosplayers who sailed the Halcyon in full cosplay, and their stories are extraordinary. From surprising cast member interactions to behind-the-scenes moments you won't believe, discover how becoming a Twi'lek transformed their voyage into something truly special. Heroes of the Halcyon on InstagramTheme Music ("Digital Discourse") by Yellow BarrelSend your email to heroesofthehalcyon@gmail.com - we'd love to hear from you about your journeys, episode suggestions, or just to say hi!
Although the jetlag has left him scarred and deformed, Freddy C is BACK from Star Wars Celebration in Tokyo, Japan. He's here to tell us all about his experience and be our tour guide to all the Legends-related info that came out of the convention. We'll speculate about Starfighter, the Legends references in Andor Season 2, and of course Maul: Shadow Lord and the mysterious red-skinned Twi'lek—could it be Darth Talon? Listen to find out what we think.
Star Wars Generations: Revisiting The Clone Wars Season 1 Ryloth ArcIn this episode of Star Wars Generations, hosts Matthew and Erin dive into the Ryloth arc (episodes "Storm Over Ryloth," "Innocents of Ryloth," and "Liberty on Ryloth") from the first season of Star Wars: The Clone Wars. Rather than doing a complete rewatch, they're focusing on their favorite episodes from each season, sharing perspectives across different generations of Star Wars fans.Erin chose the Ryloth arc, which focuses on the Republic's attempt to liberate the Twi'lek homeworld from Separatist occupation. The hosts break down the three-episode storyline, examining how each episode builds upon different aspects of war – from space battles to ground assaults to the civilian impact.What lessons does Ahsoka learn about command?The hosts discuss how "Storm Over Ryloth" shows Ahsoka Tano's early leadership struggles when she disobeys orders during a space battle, resulting in lost clone trooper lives. Matthew and Erin analyze how this mirrors Anakin Skywalker's own leadership style and foreshadows later character development. They debate whether the Jedi's approach to military command shows their fundamental unsuitability for wartime leadership.How does "Innocents of Ryloth" show the human side of clone troopers?Erin explains why "Innocents of Ryloth" resonates so deeply with her. The story follows clone troopers Waxer and Boil as they encounter a young Twi'lek girl named Numa. The episode showcases the clones' humanity beyond their military purpose, with Waxer's immediate compassion contrasting with Boil's initial reluctance. This connection becomes even more poignant when listeners learn that Waxer appears later in the series during the Battle of Umbara.What political themes emerge in the Ryloth liberation storyline?Matthew highlights how the Ryloth arc explores the complex political reality of war, where planets and their people become caught between opposing forces. The hosts discuss the conflict between Twi'lek freedom fighter Cham Syndulla (father of Rebels character Hera Syndulla) and Senator Orn Free Taa, examining how this storyline shows that not all Republic-aligned characters have the best interests of their people at heart.Other topics discussed include:Rose Tico's famous quote from The Last Jedi ("We don't win by fighting what we hate, we win by saving what we love") and how it connects to the clone troopers' mission on RylothSeparatist leader Wat Tambor's portrayal as a calculating villain focused on stealing Ryloth's resourcesHow the storyline foreshadows events in later Star Wars series like Rebels and The Bad BatchThe Clone Wars' consistent examination of how wars impact civilian populations caught in the crossfireNuma's character and her later appearances in Star Wars RebelsClone trooper individuality and personality development through visual and character choicesThe hosts wrap up by teasing next week's episode featuring Alex's picks: "Rookies," "Lair of Grievous," and "Trespass," which will explore a newly knighted Jedi, the Kaleesh cyborg general, and more Clone Wars adventures. **************************************************************************This episode is a production of Star Wars Generations, a The Ethical Panda Podcast and part of the TruStory FM Entertainment Podcast Network. Check our our website to find out more about this and our sister podcast Superhero Ethics.We want to hear from you! You can keep up with our latest news, and send us feedback, questions, or comments via social media or email.Email: Matthew@TheEthicalPanda.comFacebook: TheEthicalPandaInstagram: TheEthicalPandaPodcastsTwitter: EthicalPanda77Or you can join jump into the Star Wars Generations and Superhero Ethics channels on the TruStory FM Discord.To learn more about co-host Erin and her incredible cosplay check out her Instagram, LadyTanoCreates.Want to get access to even more content while supporting the podcast? Become a member! For $5 a month, or $55 a year you get access to bonus episodes and bonus content at the end of most episodes. Sign up on the podcast's main page you can even give membership as a gift!You can also support our podcasts through our sponsors:Purchase a lightsaber from Level Up Sabers run by friend of the podcast Neighborhood Master AlanUse Audible for audiobooks. Sign up for a one year membership or gift one through this link.Purchase any media discussed this week through our sponsored links.