Podcasts about UST

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news benchmark bond rates are on the move higher as the bond market passes its judgment on the geopolitical trade situation and the US Fed's signals.Basically they are pricing in risks where American inflation risks are not contained, and there is no real resolution to the trade tensions triggered by Trump.The Trump/Xi meeting ended with Trump claiming it was "an amazing meeting" with "all issues resolved". Markets discounted the hubris seeing the outcome actually making little practical progress. But at least it seems to be a truce. If there is any progress, it will come after further negotiations. Basically it was a photo op resulting in an invitation for Trump to visit Beijing where his ego can be stroked.The meeting brought China more time to finesse its position with the US, and more broadly, it made clear just how much stronger China has become since Xi and Trump last met. And interestingly, neither country has yet bothered to release a readout of the leaders meeting.In Japan, their central bank kept its benchmark short-term rate unchanged at 0.5% in October 2025 and extending a pause since the last hike in January. It was the market-expected decision, bit it was a split 7-2 result, with two members pushing for a rise to 0.75%, as they had at the prior meeting.Japanese share erased losses after the central bank boss gave his press conference review, but the yen dipped.In Europe, with inflation under control and its economy humming along at a modest level, but near potential, the ECB left all their settings unchanged, both interest rates (at 2.15%) and their balance sheet run-down pace. It has been a long time since they can claim their objectives are running as they would like.Meanwhile, overall economic sentiment is picking up in the EU, consistent with the improving economic data. Both industry and consumer sentiment are up in October and expectations are back to long-term averages, a position they haven't been in since early 2022.So it will be no surprise to know the Q3-2025 EU GDP rose from Q2 to be +1.5% higher than a year agoIn Germany, their October inflation rate inched lower to 2.3% from 2.4% in the prior month. But this wasn't quite as bigger move as the 2.2% rate expected. Energy costs there are falling and food prices are up only a modest +1.4% within the overall result.Globally, passenger air travel rose +3.6% in September from a year ago, with international travel up +5.1%. This was led by Asia/Pacific's +7.4% increase and trailed by North America's +2.5% rise. US domestic travel stood out with its -1.7% fall, the only region to record a shrinkage.Container freight rates rose another +4% last week, as China-USWC, and China-EU rates picked up notably. Overall they are now -41% lower than year-ago levels.Bulk freight rates fell -4.9% last week to now be +42% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.10%, up +7 bps from yesterday after the Fed announcement and after the US-China talks. The price of gold will start today at US$3999/oz, up +US$6 from this time yesterday.American oil prices are unchanged from yesterday at just on US$60.50/bbl, with the international Brent price just on US$65/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 57.5 USc, and down -30 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 87.7 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.1 and down -30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,076 and down another -2.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just on +/- 1.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

In this episode we chat with Bec from the UK who has recently achieved her dream of becoming a mortician to help families of the deceased. And with her sights firmly set on becoming an embalmer, Bec has some fantastic insights on the challenges and triumphs of working in the mortuary, and some helpful advice for anyone who may be keen to get into this type of role.In you're interested in knowing more on what it's like to actually work with the deceased, check out our YouTube channel where we publish two videos a week on what goes on behind the mortuary doors.Thanks for joining usT&T xxWatch us:YouTube: (48) Are you dying to know? - YouTubeContact us:insta: @are_you_dying_to_knowemail: areyoudyingtoknow@gmail.comWARNING:This video contains graphic material that may disturb some viewers. It is not suitable for children. Viewer discretion is advised.The views, thoughts, explanations and opinions expressed in this video belong solely to the presenters Tracy & Trish and not necessarily to their employers, organisation, or other groups or individuals.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the two big policy set pieces today have been underwhelming.First up today, the US Fed trimmed its policy rate by -25% as expected, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%. It issued a timid wait-and-see review which would be consistent with growing divisions within the policymaking committee, and growing worries that inflation is returning even as their labour markets weaken fast. Policy during stagflation requires a choice. One group wants the low-interest rate juice now, the other takes its inflation fighting mandate seriously.Immediately after the announcement, the S&P500 dipped slightly, the UST 10 year yield rose a few basis points, and the USD changed little. The announcement had no impact on the gold price - nor the bitcoin price.Earlier is was reported that mortgage applications rose +7.1% last week from the weak prior week, mainly on the back of pent-up refinance activity. Mortgage interest rates dipped but only minorly and were probably not the reason for the jump, which came after four consecutive weeks of decline. But having noted that, the small rate dip did taken them to their lowest level in more than a year.September pending home sales were soft, dipping -0.9% from the same month a year ago. This followed a +3.8% rise in August.As expected, the Bank of Canada trimmed its policy rate by -25 bps to % in its overnight decision. It said that the Canadian economy is adjusting to tariffs and the sharp drop in demand for exports. The reconfiguration of global trade and domestic production is leading to higher costs. Total inflation there has been around 2%, while underlying inflation remains about 2½%. Following the decision, their central bank boss suggested their easing cycle may be over as they expect cost pressure to rise as their economy goes through this adjustment phase.Malaysia's producer prices dipped slightly in September, down -0.8% from a year ago, but this was the least in six months as deflationary pressures seem to be past them now.Meanwhile Singapore's producer prices are on the upswing now. They rose +3.7% in September from a year ago, the most in six months. It was more for factory products with those surging about double that rate on the year-ago basis.In Australia, inflation is rising, and by more than expected. Their monthly indicator reported it rose +3.5% from the same month in 2024. The RBA meets next Tuesday to decide on its cash rate, and this seems to put the kibosh on the chance of any cut. In fact, a rate hike might get some airtime in their review.At the APEC meeting in South Korea, all eyes are on the Xi-Trump meeting results - and how far Trump has backed down. (TACO) Of course, both sides will talk up the outcome, but early signs are that things like China's resumption of soybean imports from the US will be nominal at best. Trump's deals with both Korea and Japan have long-tail implications that may not work out for the US. But the short-term optics are all that matters at present.Demand for air cargo transport rose for its seventh straight month, up +2.8% in September globally from a year ago, up +3.2% for international air shipments. This was led by the +6.9% rise in the Asia/Pacific region, and lagged by the -1.4% retreat in North America,The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.00%, after the Fed announcement. The price of gold will start today at US$3993/oz, up +US$38 overnight and making back yesterday's drop.American oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday at just on US$60.50/bbl, with the international Brent price just on US$65/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 57.8 USc, and unchanged from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 87.7 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.4 and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$111,195 and down -3.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at just on +/- 2.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US Fed is meeting but flying blind on both inflation and jobs data. But other indications suggests the US economy is fading faster than previously assumed.In the US oil patch, the Dallas Fed said service sector activity contracted further in October with the revenue index, a key measure of service sector conditions, falling to its lowest reading since July 2020. Employers are shedding jobs, they notedThings weren't great in the mid-Atlantic states region but not as tough as in Texas. The Richmond Fed's factory survey contracted less in October than September, but they also reported employers shedding jobs.Despite those two reports, the ADP Employment Report indicated that private payrolls rose an average of +14,000 jobs per week in the four weeks ending on October 11, as they move to fill the labour market data void because of the BLS shutdown. If that pace holds for October, US jobs growth in the month will be about +57,000 and better than the -32,000 in September decline. Both are unusually low levels. (In October 2023, the US reported +186,000 job gains, so they have fallen a long way since then.)Also not as negative as expected is US consumer sentiment as measured by the Conference Board. It did ease lower in October, but not as low as some had feared although it is now at a six month low. Those on low incomes (under US$75,000/year) or over 55 years were more negative than those 35-55 and on higher incomes.But overnight a range of large employers announced job cuts. UPS said it has shed -48,000 jobs, Amazon -14,000. They aren't the only ones. On top of the US Federal Government furloughs, they are facing some significant labour market strainThe Fed will likely deliver a -25 bps rate cut tomorrow.Across the Pacific, South Korea said its economy grew +1.7% real in Q3-2025 from the same quarter in 2024, building on a widening expansion. Over the past year, all of their growth has come in Q2 and Q3-2025.Chinese president Xi and US president Trump are due to meet to try and work out a trade accommodation. It will be ironic that Trump can compromise with another dictator, but not with elected representatives in his own country.In India, they reported that their expansion of industrial production held up better than expected. It rose +4.1% in August and that was expected to ease to +2.6% in September. Burt in fact their fast expansion rolled on with a +4.0% gain last month. Their factory sector rose +4.8% on the same basis. This is a very good result for them.In Europe, inflation expectations dipped slightly to 2.7% in OctoberLater today, Australia will report its September inflation results, both their quarterly CPI and their monthly inflation indicator. Both are expected to rise to the 3% level. Recent comments by the RBA governor suggest they are in no hurry to cut their policy rate, given inflation remains high and their labour market is still expanding. They next review their cash rate target on Tuesday, November 4, 2025.The UST 10yr yield is now at 3.99%, dipping another -1 bp from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3956/oz, down another -US$37 overnight.American oil prices are down -US$1.50 from yesterday at just on US$60/bbl, with the international Brent price just under US$64.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 57.8 USc, and up +10 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 87.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3 and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$115,406 and down a minor -0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just on +/- 1.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

- UST opens new arena - Gophers Bulldogs - Elite league wraps up - Blaine scrimmage fest - Big Pumpkin 

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news expectations are gyrating around the upcoming US-China leaders meeting. Markets have high expectations and are pricing in a positive outcome. For US markets, this is relatively modest and a 'relief'. For Chinese markets, and Asian markets more generally, it is very positive.A surge in market euphoria could well bring a surge in commodity prices, and in turn, inflation. This will complicate the US Fed's Thursday decision - but they won't know the final outcome of the Xi-Trump meeting when they make their decision later this week and that is awkward for them.Even before the results of the key meeting are known, Chinese industrial firms' profits rose more than +20% in September from the same month a year ago amid ongoing policy measures to revive business and consumer sentiment. Private-sector earnings strengthened markedly, while losses among state-owned enterprises narrowed quickly.Meanwhile, the stutter China had in foreign direct investment in the April to June period also seems to be over. In September, they attracted +¥68 bln in FDI, more than the +¥61 bln in the same month of 2024. But that earlier hesitation still means they are running more than -10% lower than last year, and 2024 was the weakest year they had for foreign direct investment in more than a decade. It may be improving slightly, but they are still in a serious shadow.And we should probably note that the hesitation about relationships with the US are expanding. Countries may 'engage' with the US transactionally to hold on to trade links, but China is winning. This is clear from Indonesia ordering Chinese fighter jets for its air force, and other naval equipment.In the US the data isn't quite so positive, although you wouldn't know it from the Wall Street signals today. Despite 'improving', the Dallas Fed factory survey is still reporting negative overall conditions. New orders shrank less, and manufacturing conditions remained below average. Perceptions of broader business conditions worsened somewhat in October and optimism about the next six months waned. But prices and wage pressures eased, the survey showed.Over the weekend, the US released its September CPI inflation data and it rose to 3.0%, up from 2.9% in August. This was slightly less than the expected 3.1% but it is still its highest level since June 2024. Energy costs, food and rents came in higher than that but petrol prices were lower.One factor to watch is that the rate of increase in the past two months is closer to +4% on an annualised basis. The number reported today relies on the low increases they had in 2024 and February to May. When those months work their way out of the annual calculation, the higher pressure outside those periods will come into play.Meanwhile, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey reported that Americans feel inflation is running at 4.6% and they downgraded their earlier confidence reading to now be -24% lower than year-ago levels.The internationally benchmarked PMI report for the US for October reported a strong start to the fourth quarter, with expansions in both the services (55.2) and factory sectors (52.2).If there is a relaxation of trade tensions after the China-US meeting, Australia could be a big beneficiary. And markets are starting to price that in.We should also probably note that the price of aluminium (or aluminum if you prefer) is rising fast again, back up to levels first reached in the pandemic spike. Causing this current surge is the price the Americans are prepared to pay because of their self-imposed tariffs, as producers avoid that market. Those American buyers are being hit twice.Also worth noting is a sudden rise in the price of sulfur (or sulphur if you prefer). Causing this spike is a fall in supply from some key oil producers (sulfur is a bi-product), when demand is rising for fertilisers.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.00%, dipping -1 bp from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3993/oz, down -US$118 overnight.American oil prices are -holding from yesterday at just over US$61.50/bbl, with the international Brent price still just on US$66/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 57.7 USc, and up +20 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 87.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.2 and up +20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at USD$115,614 and up +1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just on +/- 1.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of a sudden jump in international crude oil prices as the US sanctioned the main Russian oil companies.In the US, existing home sales in September rose to just over a 4 mln annual pace, slightly more than in August and +3.3% better than year-ago levels. But it was to levels less than markets expected (4.1 mln pace). The weakest regions were the South and the Midwest. But both coasts got good increases, especially in California.Because the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index collates a range of data that includes from US Federal government sources, and those are shutdown, the NAI is not published this month.However the October Kansas City Fed factory survey reported a strong rise in activity. But new export orders fell, and the average workweek shrank which was unexpected. Apparently some facilities are "doing more production with less people". There is a general worry about where new orders will come from.In Canada, they said their September retail activity retreated in the month and only held up by car-buying activity. Canadians aren't travelling either, and in an unusual twist the tourism flow into Canada from the US is now greater than the other way. But their factory activity rose by a good amount in the month.We should probably note that China is putting the final touches to its latest Five-Year Plan. These have been the catalyst for the country's economic rise, despite their dismissal in the West. Their state planning has brought them up to be the alternate world superpower. And China and the US will be meeting in Malaysia in a few days to see if they can iron out some knotty disagreements and pave the way for a Xi-Trump summit. It will likely happen because the Americans seem on the back-foot now, but startlingly blind to their growing weakness. And TACO.Singapore reported September inflation of just +0.7% from a year ago, a pick-up from August's four year low.Taiwan said its retail sales fell -2.2% in September from a year ago, reversing August's rise. They said public uncertainty levels are high and spending plans are conservative. But the same view isn't shared in their factory sector where industrial production was up +15% from a year ago, consistent to order information we reported yesterday and which is likely to drive output even higher in coming months.The EU reported its September consumer sentiment survey results and this was little-changed, remaining quite negative although a bit less so than in prior months. In fact, it is now its least-negative since February.Container freight rates rose +3% last week, largely on the China-to-EU trade. Overall they are now -45% lower than year-ago levels. Bulk cargo rates rose +8.5% over the past week and are now +40% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 3.99% and up +4 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today back up sharply at US$4129/oz, a gain of US$81 from yesterday, a +2.0% firming. Silver has risen less, now at US$49/oz.American oil prices are +US$3.50 higher at just under US$62/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$66/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.5 USc, and again little-changed from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 88.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.1 and essentially unchanged.The bitcoin price starts today at US$110,047 and up +1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.6%. (Trump has pardoned a major crypto fraudster.)You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US federal Government shutdown is now the second longest in their history having just overtaken the 1995-96 one where Republicans were trying to prevent a Clinton budget being passed. The longest was the 2018-19 one induced by Trump. The current one has seen about 1 mln federal workers stood down, and that is the largest of this type of impact. If this one runs another two weeks it will then become their longest.Separately, US mortgage applications inched lower last week although it was their fourth consecutive weekly decline. The weakest part of these mortgage applications are those to buy a new home. This came despite benchmark 30 year mortgage interest rates falling again and back near their one-year lows.There was another US Treasury bond auction overnight, this one for their 20 year Note. It drew is normal modest support, and delivered a median yield of 4.46%, down from the 4.56% at the prior equivalent event a bit more than a month ago.Ratings agency Moody's is pointing out that the rise of non-bank debt providers are building stress into the global financial system. Loans to non-depository financial institutions (NDFIs) are now 10.4% of total bank loans, nearly three times the 3.6% exposure a decade ago they said. It is aggressive growth that has outpaced all other lending activities since 2016.Japanese exports rose in September from August, but their imports jumped more than expected and catching analysts a bit by surprise. Basically they are now at the same level, oscillating around balance, as was expected. But some observers cheered that this result indicated Japanese consumer demand was improving.The Indonesian central bank reviewed its policy rate overnight and left it unchanged at 4.75%, surprising observers who had expected and priced in a -25 bps rate cut. But to be fair, it had lowered rates at the three previous reviews.In China, we should note that Shanghai's recent change in their house-buying restrictions has brought a spectacular surge in transactions - September home sales in this key city rose by more than +70% (they measure sales activity by m2).We should also probably note that the aluminium price rose again overnight as it has done since early April and is now at its highest level since May 2022 when it was in the pandemic bubble. Other than that, it is now at a record high.The UST 10yr yield is now at 3.95% and down -1 bp from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today sharply lower again at US$4048/oz, down -US$74 from yesterday, another -1.8% correction. Silver has fallen less.American oil prices are +US$1 firmer at just over US$58.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$62.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.5 USc, and little-changed from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 88.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.1 and up less than +10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,105 and down a rather sharpish -4.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the market assumption that Trump's upcoming meeting with Chinese president Xi would calm trade matters seems up in the air again, with that meeting now suddenly less certain. And a Trump-Putin meeting chance is fading. As well as the Gaza truce holding. Markets are in a wait-and-see mode today. But precious metals prices are giving back some of their recent gains in sharp moves lower.But first, today's full dairy auction delivered an average price of US$3881/tonne, down -1.0% from the prior full event two weeks ago. But the key WMP price fell a sharp -4.6% as the derivatives market had signaled, while the SMP price fell -2.1%, only half the derivatives market signal. Butter and the cheeses fell, but there was a big gain for AMF. Apparently. The auction system suffered glitches so these details are interim and are subject to change.In the US, their Federal Government shutdown is getting ever more toxic, now in its third week. A key White House economic advisor said yesterday the shutdown is “likely to end sometime this week,” though warned that if it doesn't, the Trump administration may resort to “stronger measures” to pressure Democrats. There seems no resolution in sight amid the partisan standoff. Republicans are pushing for a short-term funding bill to maintain current spending levels (something they railed against when Biden was President), while Democrats insist any deal must include expanded health-care provisions, specifically an extension of Obamacare tax credits set to expire at the end of 2025. Curiously, Obamacare has its deepest hold in Republican states.In American private sector data released overnight, there was quite a dive in the Redbook retail sales data tracking for last week. As its a one-off, it is not possible to say whether this is an anomaly or an indication of some sharp retail cooling. But it is worth watching. It could well be that tariff-tax price hikes are sapping retail demand.In Canada, they got an inflation surprise. Their CPI inflation rose to 2.4% in September from 1.9% in the previous month, and higher than analyst expectations of 2.3% and the highest inflation rate since February. It was the first time inflation crossed the Bank of Canada's 2% threshold in six months. Even their core inflation rate rose more than expected. But some of this jump can be explained by base effects related to their petrol price. The Bank of Canada next reviews their policy rate next week and more than a 50/50 chance of a -25 bps cut is priced in by financial markets. That would take their policy rate to 2.25%.Across the Pacific in Taiwan, their export prowess actually gained momentum in a spectacular fashion in September. Orders for Taiwanese exports surged by more than +30% year-on-year to an all-time high exceeding US$70 bln in the month, accelerating from a 19.5% increase in the previous month and far surpassing market expectations of a +18% gain. Demand for AI products surged.In Japan, Sanae Takaichi has won the prime ministership, building a coalition with the Japan Innovation Party, and will now chase spending reforms and expansionary fiscal policies, in the style of ex-PM Shinzo Abe. The Yen weakened sharply as a result.In Argentina, despite more overt US support, the peso has fallen sharply again.In Australia, they are glowing after successful Albanese deals with the US. But now delivering meaningful rare earth production become the priority. It will likely reinvigorate an already successful mining sector. If demand from China slows, as some expect, this could keep their mining sector party going for a while longer.The UST 10yr yield is now at 3.96% and down -3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today very sharply lower at US$4121/oz, down a massive -US$225 from yesterday, a -5.2% correction. Silver has fallen proportionately more, down to US$48.50/oz.American oil prices are +50 USc firmer at just under US$57.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$61.50/bbl. But even American plans to refill its strategic reserves with more than 1 mln barrels hasn't shifted the price.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 57.5 USc, and little-changed from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 88.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +20 bps at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62 and little-changed.The bitcoin price starts today at US$113,511 and up +2.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Australia seems to have avoided American ire when Prime Minister Albanese visited Washington overnight. They ended with a rare earths agreement, confirmation of the AUKUS submarine deal, and unchanged 10% tariff rates into the US.Albanese also seems to have avoided being forced into an overt anti-China position, and has resisted committing to defence spending above 2% of GDP. Trump wanted 3.5% but that seems sidelined.It is also pretty clear that having US support can be a toxic advantage - for the US. Despite the US committing more than US$20 bln of US taxpayer funding to bolster its currency, Trump support of Argentina is leaking those funds fast with traders taking the support funds as fast as they can (the peso is still weakening fast), and Argentina rushing to sell China soybeans to replace American farmers. You couldn't make this stuff up.In Canada, producer prices rose 4.0% in September from a year ago, the most since January, and prior to that the most since January 2023. But this strong rise was mostly caused by the rise in precious metals, especially gold.Meanwhile, the latest Business Outlook Survey for Canadian businesses undertaken for their central bank shows a modest recovery in sentiment, but conditions remain quite subdued.In China, their central bank kept their key lending rates at record lows for a fifth consecutive month in October, as was expected.The rate of fall in China's new house prices mellowed in September according to official data. They were down overall by -2.3%. Shanghai remained the outlier with a +5.6% rise, slightly below August's +5.9% increase for that city. But for resales, it is still tough, with none of their 70 largest urban areas reporting a gain, either month-on-month or year-on-year, not even Shanghai. If you buy new, you can only still sell into a falling market.In a surprise to no-one, China said its Q3-2025 GDP was up +4.8% from a year ago. But that showed weaker than expected consumer demand. They also reported that retail sales were up only +3.0% in September (and a one year low, compared with +3.4% in August) whereas industrial production was up +6.5% in September (+5.2% in August. Regular readers will know that we also track electricity production as a hard check against these other top-line claims. That only showed a +1.5% rise from a year ago. It regularly trails claims of big industrial output and is a core reason we are sceptical of those outsized official claims.The latest trade and tariff threats from the US is causing trans-Pacific freight rates to spike again as goods are rushed to beat the threatened imposition. But this spike is much more muted this time as most Chinese firms have transitioned away from US supply in a significant way.On the import front, some decoupling by China is stark. China's monthly soybean imports from the US have fallen to zero for the first time in seven years. They were replaced by mostly South American sources. China is also strangling rare earth magnet exports to the US, which could be serious for some American companies, including defence contractors.In France, after a tense political week, S&P downgraded France's credit rating in a rare, unscheduled adjustment, citing political instability that threatens the government's efforts to repair its finances. Basically their public purse can't afford their generous retirement benefits, but the population insist they be kept irrespective of the damage to the State.In Germany, producer price deflation stayed well embedded, with prices falling -1.7% in September from a year ago, although this was less than the -2.2% retreat in August.The UST 10yr yield is now at 3.99% and down -2 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4346/oz, up +US$95 from yesterday, a +2.2% surge to start the week. Silver hasn't had the same surge.American oil prices are -50 USc lower at just on US$57/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$60.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.5 USc, and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 88.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62, up +10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$110,505 and up +1.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Australia is facing some hard choices in their relationships with China and the US. Can you have security without economic stability? Can you have stability with a disrespectful and unreliable partner?But first, this coming week will be dominated by today's New Zealand CPI release later this morning. And a full dairy auction on Wednesday.In the US, there is some expectation that they will get their September CPI data at the end of the week (expect higher than 3%) despite the shutdown. But most focus there will be on the Q3 earnings season announcements. CPI data will also come from Japan, Singapore and Malaysia. But there will be PMIs from all over this week and well as interest rate decisions from Indonesia and Korea. And the Chinese will review their Loan Prime rates although no change is expected.From China, they will release Q3 GDP data, which is expected to show a small sag (to 4.8%?), along with a range of other core economic metrics which should give a broader fix on how they are trackingOver the weekend in India, bank loan growth accelerated to its fastest pace of expansion in September, for all of 2025, up +11.4% from year-ago levels to US$2.3 bln.After two months of declines, Singapore's exports rose almost +7% in September from a year ago, largely on the back of recovering exports of electronic goods.In Malaysia, their Q3 GDP result shows them expanding +5.2% from a year ago, accelerating from +4.4% growth in Q2. It is their fastest expansion in a yearIn Australia, there is growing concern about the building of uneven wealth distribution and how inheritances embed both inequality and entitlement. A failed attempt to address it through their superannuation system reforms has just raised the pressure to 'do something'.A more immediate stress is also building in Australia; American pressure to de-couple from China. This seems quite unlikely given the local wealth-weight dependent on the China trade. But it will make for 'interesting times' in the AU-US relationship.In the US over the weekend President Trump seemed to back off his sharp rhetoric against China in another TACO moment. Markets went into temporary relief mode on Friday. There was more TACO for Ukraine, even Gaza but both of them just added to the mess he made.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.01% and unchanged from Saturday but down -4 bps for the week.The price of gold will start today at US$4251/oz, up +US$30 from Saturday. Over the past week, gold is up a net +5.8%, silver is up a net +3.3% and platinum is now marginally lower.American oil prices are holding lower at just on US$57.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$61/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.4 USc, and up +10 bps from Saturday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 88.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.9, up +10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,732 and up +2.4% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that while the 'real economy' is barely able to expand - but is in fact doing so modestly - there are two extreme bubbles brewing - in AI firm valuations, and in precious metals valuations. One or both will end sometime, and the losses will be extraordinary when they do, likely hurting the 'real economy' when it happens. But who knows when? Financial market risk aversion is in evidence today in the bond markets.There are other stresses of course (geopolitical, retribution stupidity, commodity distortions, climate, etc.) and they have to play out at the same time.But first in the US, their economic data is dominated today by the October version of the Philadelphia Fed factory survey for the important Pennsylvania rust belt region. That reported an unexpected sharp slowdown in activity and a six month low in this index. If there is a silver lining however, it is that new order levels picked up from what were very low levels. Not helping however is that firms are again reporting higher than average cost increases. Most firms reported struggles passing on those higher costs in higher prices.American house-building activity has been struggling for the past five months but sentiment in the industry picked up in October somewhat, mainly on the expectation that lower interest rates would help. It's a sentiment improvement,not an activity improvement however.Yesterday we noted slightly improved factory sentiment in the New York state area. But today we can report that their services sector is in a tough spot, in fact its lowest since the pandemic-affected January 2021. It is glum there and firms are not expecting much improvement.In Canada, their small business sentiment has turned negative too.But Canada's housebuilding sector is on a roll, reporting strong housing starts again in September and well above what analysts were expecting. That is now five of the past six months with elevated housing start data.Across the Pacific in Japan, core machinery orders, excluding the large volatile sectors, fell -0.9% in August from July to ¥8.9 tln but it was much less than the sharp -4.6% drop in July. Analysts had expected a small gain however.And staying in Japan, it now looks like Sanae Takaichi will in fact become prime minister after more coalition talks.In France, the Macron-allied new prime minister has survived a no-confidence vote (on the second attempt) bringing some stability to their political mess.In Australia, their September jobless rate ticked higher to 4.5% and their jobs growth, especially full-time jobs growth, came in lower than expected.For the first time since June when rates started falling fast, global container freight rates rose last week, overall by +2%. In the meantime they had fallen -52%, so that suggests these costs may be bottoming out. They are now -50% lower than year-ago levels. There were modest rises everywhere, even in outbound China rates. There will be activity trying to front-run potentially new tariffs by the US, and there is Christmas-goods flows starting too.Bulk cargo rates rose a net +2% last week too, but in between it was unusually volatile. These latest levels are now +12% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 3.97% and down -8 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4273/oz, up +US$77 from yesterday and far away a new ATH. Silver is up to just under US$54/oz and an ATH. Platinum is roaring too, now at US$1732/oz and up +71% from the start of the year and approaching its 2011 highs.American oil prices are down -US$1 at just on US$57.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$61/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.3 USc, and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +60 bps at 88.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.8, up +10 bps from yesterday. Also, see this.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,652 and down another -2.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news inflation is getting entrenched in the US and policymakers are starting to look away from the threat under political pressure.But first, US mortgage applications fell for a third consecutive week with both refinance and new home applications decreasing. This came even though benchmark 30 year mortgage rates fell too. But the overall activity level is significantly higher than at this time last year.In New York state, factories there reported that their new order levels stopped falling. And they shipped more in the past month. That brought a good rebound in the New York Fed's Empire factory survey in October, making back September's drop and almost back to the August levels. One of the reasons respondents feel better about the situation is that their price increases are sticking and they are absorbing less of their tariff-tax cost increases.Supporting that are two private CPI tracking services who say that consumer prices picked up even more in September, one even suggesting CPI inflation ran at over +6% in September.And that inflation is rising is confirmed in the October Beige Book release today by the Fed. They noted tariff-induced costs were reported in all districts, as input costs increased at a faster pace due to both these higher import costs and the higher cost of services. Overall, they say American economic activity changed little on balance since the previous report, with three Districts reporting slight to modest growth in activity, five reporting no change, and four noting a slight softening. Consumer spending, particularly on retail goods, inched down in recent weeks.Across the Pacific, China said its consumer prices stayed in mild deflation, now running -0.3% lower in September from a year ago. Beef and lamb prices are rising now, but milk prices are still falling.Meanwhile Chinese producer prices, already in moderate deflation, eased back to a -2.3% decrease, from August's -2.9%.China also released its monthly new yuan loan data overnight. They came in at almost ¥1.3 tln, double the unusually low August level but still short of the almost ¥1.5 tln expected. September's get a seasonal boost normally and those factors were evident this year too. But still, the latest level was lower than the ¥1.6 tln in September 2024. Credit demand remains slightly subdued.India said its September exports rose +6.1% to US$36.4 bln, building on the August increase. Their exports to the US are only 20% of all their exports and less than half of those are caught up in punitive tariff-taxes. And even among those, it is the Americans paying, it seems.The EU said their industrial production rose again August from a year ago. Although the rise was a modest +1.1% from a year ago, that is an inflation-adjusted 'real' gain. In fact, their have reported gains on that basis for the past seven consecutive months which is unusual for them. For the prior 38 months they consistently reported year-on-year decreases. It's a turn up they will take.In Australia, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index for Q3-2025 suggests that the Australian economy is only expanding at the long term trend pace, but the pace is picking up marginally. They expect 2025 to come in below trend, but 2026 to edge up to trend levels.And Australia fell almost -66,000 homes short in the year to June of the aspirational +240,000 new homes built needed to the Government's target of 1.2 million new homes in the five years to 2029. That's a -27% shortfall in year one, not a great start because it is actually the weakest annual rise in three years. A shortfall like this will underpin prices for existing houses and make housing sharply less affordable.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.05% and up +2 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$4196/oz, up +US$52 from yesterday.American oil prices are little-changed at just under US$58.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$62/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.2 USc, essentially unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -320 bps at 87.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.7, down -10 bps from yesterday. Also, see this.The bitcoin price starts today at US$110.890 and down another -1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news both Fed boss Powell, and the IMF are increasingly concerned about financial stability.But first up today, there was a dairy Pulse auction overnight for milk powders. Prices for both SMP and WMP dipped -0.5% in USD terms, extending the easing we have noted recently. But the exchange rate fell faster, so in NZD both commodities were up about +1%.But the key economic influence today is the overnight speech from US Fed boss Powell. He (politely) bemoaned the lack of key current data, but is clearly worried about what is happening in the giant US labour market. He sees payroll about to shrink, not only because of the immigration crackdown, but softening economic activity and business hesitation due to tariff costs and uncertainty. He also said the Fed will likely end its reductions in its balance sheet because liquidity conditions are tightening. His speech sets the Fed up for defensive actions ahead of what they expect are growing economic risks. Basically, they are ready to cut rates.Financial markets noted his caution, and while they didn't retreat, they aren't as gung-ho as yesterday or last week either, despite the rate-cut implication.“My antenna goes up when things like that happen,” Jamie Dimon, said on a call with analysts about stresses like the First Brands debacle. “I probably shouldn't say this, but when you see one cockroach, there are probably more. Everyone should be forewarned on this one.”In the absence of official data while their shutdown extends, trade data is filling the gap. Today the NFIB Optimism survey came in mich lower than expected, and a fall was expected. Small business owners are increasingly frustrated with supply chain disruptions and are seeing inflation emerging in what they are paying, and having a struggle passing on those costs as sales levels turn soft.Across the Pacific, China has set an ambitious new vehicles sales target for 2025 of 32.3 mln units, far and away the world's largest market (The US is second at about 18 mln vehicles.) They will likely hit that target. In September, sales were the strongest of the year at over 3.2 mln in the month, almost +15% higher than the same month in 2024. NEVs accounted for 1.6 mln, up be almost +25% from a year ago. This is now a globally significant sector driving both the Chinese and global economy.Singapore was bracing for a +2.0% year-on-year Q3-2025 GDP expansion, down from the +4.5% expansion they had in Q2-2025. But they actually got a +2.9% expansion in the September quarter. Services and construction did more heavy lifting there than was assumed when all the focus was on the troubles their factory sector was having.In Australia, the NAB Business Confidence Index rose tin September from August's three-month low, staying above the long-run average. Business conditions were unchanged, as stronger sales and profits were offset by weaker employment. However, forward orders slipped into contraction indicating softer demand ahead.Through all these global changes, the IMF is trying to make sense of how this is affecting the world's economy. They are somewhat confused by "complex forces". Their World Economic Outlook update projects overall economic growth to slow to +3.2% in 2025 and +3.1% in 2026, down from 3.3% in 2024. They see the world adjusting to rising protectionism and fragmentation and we are now below pre-policy-shift levels. American growth is now expected lower at +2.0% in 2025 and similar in 2026, while China's economy is projected to slow to +4.8% and +4.2% in 2026. Europe is forecast to expand +1.2% in 2025 and +1.1% in 2026, Japan by +1.1% and +0.6%, Australia by +1.8% and +2.1%. Meanwhile, global inflation is expected to continue easing, though trends will vary across countries, above target in the US, with risks tilted to the upside, while staying subdued elsewhere.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.03% and down -4 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$4145/oz, up +US$35 from yesterday.American oil prices are -US$1 lower at just over US$58.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$62.50/bbl. That is changed by lower demand and higher supply expectations.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.2 USc, down -20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 88.1 AUc. Against the euro we are dow -30 bps at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.8, do2n -10 bps from yesterday. Also, see this.The bitcoin price starts today at US$112,593 and down -1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Trump (and Vance) are attempting to roll-back their aggression in the face of ugly financial market reactions and firm Chinese pushbacks. That cheered Wall Street and American investors, but others are watching the risks mount and have pushed precious metals prices up sharply.Meanwhile, China said their exports rose +8.3% in September from a year ago. This is faster expansion that the +4.4% August growth, and took the monthly level to US$329 bln the most in seven months. And this was despite a -27% slump in exports to the US. The exports grew modestly to Japan and Korea, but to some key markets they rose more than +10%, like to Taiwan (+11%), ASEAN countries (+14%), the EU (+14%), and Australia (+11%). They raised their exports to New Zealand by more than +17% - and bought +2.6% more from us. It is a pretty impressive performance, it has to be said.Of course, we don't have any American data to compare it with, the their last data for August showed their exports fell -1.4% from a year ago. American disengagement is a unique opportunity for China who so far are a net winner.And it may get worse for the US. Their farm products are being substituted by other markets (Australia is a winner), and China's rare-earth export restrictions will put a growing share of American technology in a tough spot. Of course, it may also drive innovation to other components but so far there is little evidence of that happening at the scale needed. American companies seem to just be waiting for another TACO moment.It is not all good in China. A new survey of local economists points out a clear slowing.In India, their CPI inflation fell to 1.5% in September, down from 2.1% in August and below the expected 1.7%. This is their lowest inflation rate since June 2017. It is also below their central bank's 2% lower tolerance limit under its inflation-targeting framework. Leading the rate lower were food prices that fell -2.3%, the largest decline since a record -2.7% fall in December 2018.This year's Nobel Prize in Economics has been awarded to three economists (Israeli, French, Canadian) whose investigations showed that sustained economic growth does in fact come from innovation and 'creative destruction'.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.07% and up +2 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$4110/oz, up +US$94 from yesterday. (Silver is now just under US$52/oz, up proportionately more, but that may have more to do with a short squeeze in the London market.)American oil prices are up +50 USc at just on US$59.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$63.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 57.4 USc, up a bit more than +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 87.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 49.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.9, up +10 bps from yesterday. Also, see this.The bitcoin price starts today at US$114,683 and up +0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news markets will be on edge this week after a sharp -2.7% retreat on Wall Street on Friday and the largest one-day drop since early April. Bonds twisted into defensive mode. Commodities fell, especially oil. Bitcoin retreated sharply. And the USD shifted into its traditional risk-averse mode but not by as much as you might have expected. Many traders seem to want to shift away from the traditional US-is-safe investment thinking. Not helping is that the US has started supporting the Argentine peso to prop up its Trump-friendly president.Although this coming week is the start of the US Q3 earnings season reports, the jolt at the end of last week might make these usually-important signals somewhat less relevant.Normally we would get US inflation data this coming week but it will undoubtedly not come. So we will have to rely on other US data, mainly from the Fed, but also trade sources.Developments in Japan's political transition will be important this coming week. And the IMF will release its World Economic Outlook update.China will release CPI and other September banking data this week. India will also released inflation data. For us, it will be the September REINZ results sometime this week. And Australia will release details about its September labour market.Over the weekend in Canada, they reported a surprisingly strong jobs report there for September with a gain of more than +60,000 jobs in the month, embellished because full-time job gains exceeded +106,000. This is far better than the overall +5000 gain expected. Of course, we didn't get an American jobs report for September because of the shutdown that affects their statistics system, but if the ADP Employment Report is any guide, Canada likely grew its workforce more than the US, which is a rare occurrence given that the US workforce is more than eight times larger than Canada's.On Saturday (NZT) in a bewildering social media post, Trump threatened to hike tariffs on Chinese exports - again - and cancel a meeting with Chinese President Xi in South Korea later this month. The broadside sent markets into the sharp retreat. He was reacting to the Chinese expanding its rare-earth export controls. He said "no way that China should be allowed to hold the world ‘captive'", blind to what he is trying to do with his own unilateral tariffs.Just when market optimists thought that the US and China had a chance of making up, Trump has exposed his weakness - his lack of self-awareness and childish inability to understand the double standards he seeks.Markets have reacted badly to the tiff, seeing it as a flare-up in trade wars that will hurt the global economy. Equities fell sharply, bond yields went into risk-aversion mode, and the USD became less competitive. Commodity prices fell.The US Federal Government September deficit result due out over the weekend has been delayed, another data victim of their shutdown. It might be a while - mass firings of federal workers has begun.In Japan, the elevation of "Iron Lady" Sanae Takaichi to lead the LDP seems to have stumbled at the first hurdle. The LDP's main coalition partner has refused to work with her. Japanese politics could be extending its revolving door government style.In Australia, business is in a hesitant spot too. Data out on Friday for August showed monthly business turnover fell -2.2% (seasonally adjusted) and this fall was the largest since April 2023 with drops across nine industries. Manufacturing was down -5.8%, tech was down -3.7%, and mining was down -1.9%.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.05% and unchanged from Saturday but down -9 bps for the week.The price of gold will start today at US$4016/oz, up +US$28 from Saturday and up +US$128 from a week ago. Silver is now just on US$50/oz, a weekly gain of +US$2.American oil prices are holding lower at just on US$59/bbl and a five month low, down -US$2 from a week ago, with the international Brent price now just under US$63.The Kiwi dollar is at just over 57.2 USc, unchanged from Saturday and down -110 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 88.3 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.8, unchanged from Saturday but down -80 bps for the week. Also, see this.The bitcoin price starts today at US$114,215 and down -3.0% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

(0:00) Wstęp (0:52) Izrael porozumiał się z Hamasem w sprawie pierwszego etapu zakończenia wojny w Strefie Gazy(2:12) Ustępujący premier Francji twierdzi, że oddala się widmo przedterminowych wyborów parlamentarnych(3:43) Premier Grenlandii chce nawiązać bliskie relacje z Unią Europejską(5:06) Niemiecka policja będzie mogła zestrzeliwać podejrzane drony(6:32) Komisja Europejska zapowiada walkę z terapiami konwersyjnymi i nienawiścią wobec mniejszości seksualnych(8:00) Partia włoskiej premier zamierza przeciwstawić się „islamskiemu separatyzmowi”Informacje przygotował Maurycy Mietelski. Nadzór redakcyjny – Igor Janke. Czyta Michał Ziomek.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news China's economic activity over their holiday period will be impressing investors, while the US worries about weakening labour markets.But first, the ongoing US Federal Government shutdown means there is no USDA WASDE report for September that was due today. That will delay scrutiny of "farmageddon" especially for soybean farmers. Bailouts are on the way (in a way Trump hates in other countries) but they won't be large enough to hold off existential issues for many farmers.But despite the shutdown, there was a long-dated bond auction overnight for their 30 year Treasury bond, and it attracted normal levels of support. It resulted in a median yield of 4.67%, up from 4.58% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.Across the Pacific, Japanese machine tool orders for September rose almost +10% from a year earlier to its best September level since the record high in 2022. Driving the increase was export orders, although domestic orders gained too. It is an impressive result for them.Taiwanese exports in September continue to astound. The surged almost +34% from a year ago to more than US$54 bln in the month, their third-highest month ever. Only the prior July and August were larger, so they are on a real roll. This latest data was driven by strong demand for their electronics products, up more than +86% on the same basis. Other machinery exports were good too. You can see why mainland politicians covet their neighbour and want to claim it.In the Philippines, their central bank cut its policy rate unexpectedly by -25 bps to 4.75%.Chian is back from holiday. According to official reports, they estimated the Golden Week holiday generated 888 mln separate travel trips with total overall spending at ¥809 bln (NZ$200 bln). These are record highs with hospitality up +2.7% and tourist spending up +6%. Their overall GST data shows retail activity up +4.5% from year-ago levels for this holiday period. By any measures these are good levels and indicate China's economy is more than holding its own at present. It also indicates that domestic demand can be a sustainable driver for them, much as Beijing has wanted.Supporting this conclusion has been the positive financial market reactions post-holiday from the equity, bond and currency markets.Indonesia reported August retail sales overnight and they expanded at a good pace, up +3.5% from a year ago, and while this wasn't as fast as for July, it does indicate that recent government measures to dig them out of a languid period are working. This is important because social unrest spilled into the streets a few months ago.In Europe, Germany reported August export levels overnight and they came in almost the same as they reported a year ago (€130 bln)In Australia, their October survey of inflation expectations again shows pressure at the top of the recent range. Those expectations edged up to 4.8% from 4.7% in September, continuing high results since June. This is building concerns that Q3 inflation may exceed the forecasts of 3% when it is released on Wednesday, October 29. This latest uptick reflects the impact of unwinding temporary energy subsidies, and elevated labour costs driven by weak productivity.Global container freight rates were little-changed last week, down just -1% from the prior week to be under half year-ago levels. Bulk freight rates were also unchanged for the week to be +5% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.15% and up +1 bp from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3980/oz, down -US$73 from yesterday and now well off its high. Volatility is setting in. Silver is down too but not by as much, now just under US$49/oz. Earlier in the day it hit a new ATH before the pullback.American oil prices are down -US$1 at just on US$61.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$65.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.4 USc, down another -40 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we softened -10 bps at 87.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 65.2, down -20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$120,690 and down -2.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news it seems the absence of official US economic data isn't holding back financial market risk takers, and even the data that is available, none of it very positive, isn't restraining them either.First in the US, consumer debt growth seems to have evaporated in August. They were expecting a 'normal' +US$12 bln expansion, better than last year's +US$9 bln rise. But they only got +US$0.3 bln and far below anticipations. It rose at the slowest pace in six months, held back by a decline in credit card balances. Even car loan growth slowed to a crawl. It is a notable cooling in household borrowing, consistent with the expectation survey we noted yesterday that reported worries about jobs and interest rates are on the rise.US mortgage applications fell again last week, extending the big fall the previous week. This came even though mortgage interest rates also fell.A host of alternative jobs data from Wall Street are pointing in the same direction: the American labour market is losing steam. Many of these reports and surveys are private, for subscribers only, and so give a new advantage to a few. But even this data is still ignored by frothy markets.There was a less-well supported US Treasury auction overnight for their ten year Note, and that delivered a median yield of 4.06% which was up from the 3.99% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.Meanwhile the release of the minutes from the last Fed meeting saw benchmark rate rise slightly, the US dollar halt its rise, and the S&P500 yawn.In Japan, the Reuters Tankan business confidence survey came in quite positive again in September, although lower than for August which was unusually buoyant. Since April this survey has been quite positive.In Taiwan, their September inflation rate fell to 1.25%, their lowest since March 2021 and down from 1.6% in August. It is also now well below their central bank's target of 2%.In China, they return from holiday today and businesses and financial markets will re-open. By official accounts, the level of economic activity during this break was high.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.14% and up +2 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$4053/oz, up +US$80 from yesterday and a new high. Silver is taking off again, now at US$49.50. (By the way its record high was just under US$51 in March 2011.)American oil prices are up +US$1 at just on US$62.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.8 USc, down another -30 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we softened -30 bps at 88.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 65.4, down -20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$123,124 and up +1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news most of the latest economic data seems to be on a downslide.The overnight dairy auction brought slightly easing prices, although not be as much as the derivatives market had signaled. In the end prices fell -1.6% in USD terms, but in NZD terms they were actually up +1.5% as the value of our currency is weaker.Elsewhere, the American logistics sector is starting to show the building uncertainty in their economy. Their September LMI came in at near its weakest of 2025 with costs and inventory levels up and warehouse utilisation down.The same pullback is showing in consumer sentiment too. It softened in October as reported by the RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index.And the same wavering sentiment has been picked up in the New York Fed's national survey of consumer expectations. Inflation expectations ticked up to 3.4%, expected income growth fell, and the expectations of losing a job rose.And for the record, the US Federal government shutdown drags on.In Canada, in August, merchandise exports fell -3.0%, while imports were up +0.9%. As a result, Canada's merchandise trade deficit with the world widened from -$3.8 bln in July to -$6.3 bln in August. Exports featured their first decrease since April and the US tariff moves. Their imports featured a rush to import gold.However it may not all be gloom in Canada. Their internal economy may be on a roll. Their closely-watch local PMI surged in September to a 16-month high and smashing market expectations of only a minor improvement.Across the Pacific, we should note that today is the final day of their week-long national holiday in China.Meanwhile, Japanese household spending rose +2.3% in August from a year ago and far better than expected. In fact, it was the fourth straight monthly rise and the strongest pace since May. Helping were government support measures at tackling cost pressures (including the big rice price jump) and the new American tariffs.In Australia, consumer sentiment is receding. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell in October from September to its lowest reading in six months. Optimism about where family finances are headed is fading. Uncertainty about future interest rate cuts is rising. And pessimism about housing affordability is rising as house price expectations hit new 15-year high. These are retrograde moves.And that is showing up in job ads. The ANZ-Indeed measure of job ads fell -3.3% in September, one of the largest monthly drops in the past 18 months. The latest data was the third consecutive monthly fall and the sixth monthly drop this year so far.And globally, it is probably worth noting that the Boeing 737 has been dethroned as history's most popular jet aircraft. It has now been overtaken by Airbus's A320 which has now produced and delivered 12,260 of this model.Also globally, the World Bank came up with gloomy world trade forecasts for 2026.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.12% and down -4 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3973/oz, up +US$21 from yesterday and a new high and edging toward US$4000. In fact it hit that level, briefly, about four hours ago. Silver is taking a breather however and is lower todayAmerican oil prices are down -50 USc at just under US$61.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$65/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.1 USc, down -30 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we soft -10 bps at 88.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 65.6, down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$121,767 and down -2.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.0%.And join us at 2pm later today for the results of the RBNZ's Monetary Policy Review. Financial markets are still split on whether it will be a -25 bps or -50 bps cut, but yesterday's weak QSBO might have tipped it to the larger one.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news financial markets are running positively, but without the guardrails of American economic data, while the US Federal shutdown extends. In their absence, consumer and tech speculations are generating considerable froth.But first in China, their Mid-Autumn festival holiday spending should tell us a lot about their economic activity, and the initial signs are promising for them; unprecedented travel levels, active holiday destinations. But we will have to wait for the overall outcomes. The final day of this holiday period is tomorrow.In Japan, their stock market took off in a wave of euphoria following the vote to make Sanae Takaichi the leader of the LDP and PM in waiting. But the yen fell, probably a boon for Japanese exporters.In Europe, August retail sales volumes were mixed. They were up only +1.0% from the same month a year ago, the least in more than a year. But the change from July were slightly more encouraging driven by food purchases, especially in France and Spain. Germany and Italy were laggards however. Easing fuel consumption was part of the reason for the retail growth restraint which they will take as a 'good thing'.In France, a newly appointed Prime Minister resigned when his new cabinet could not survive its first parliamentary vote.In Australia, the Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge recorded a +0.4% increase in monthly inflation for September from August, primarily influenced by higher recreation and transport related prices. The monthly cost of living also rose. Annual headline inflation now lies at the top-end of the 2-3% target band at just on +3.0%. This is the same as the last ABS Inflation Indicator for August. At this rate, it seems unlikely that the RBA will be looking at any rate cut at their November 4, 2025 review. But not everyone links like that. The central bank is still expected to slash the cash rate despite these sticky prices, according to the latest quarterly survey of economists by The Australian Financial Review.In the US, no progress at all on their Federal government shutdown. And to distract attention, as autocrats always do, Trump is moving to impose National Guard military presence in major cities, even when the evidence is clear there are no crime waves, as he claims. But the distraction is the point.And we should note that aluminium prices are rising significantly again, up at US$2720/tonne. They are now near their highest ever, (apart from the unusual 2021-22 bubble in the pandemic recovery). Tin, Zinc and even copper are also on the rise. The main metal price not changing much is nickel. Iron ore is also flat-lining, as it has done since early 2024. But precious metals, the ones much more subject to consumer speculation, are surging. The most spectacular is platinum which is up +60% since May. (In the same time, gold has risen +22% and silver +47%).The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.16% and up +4 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3952/oz, up +US$67 from yesterday and a new high and powering toward US$4000. Silver is up too, but less, now at US$48.50/oz.American oil prices are up +US$1 at just under US$62/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$65.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.4 USc, up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we soft -10 bps at 88.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 65.7, up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$125,294 and up +2.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest however at just on +/- 1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that while much of the financial world seems disconnected from economic reality, we are about to reminded of our local realities this week.This week will be all about the RBNZ OCR review on Wednesday. Will it be a -25 bps cut or a -50 bps cut? Financial markets do not know, but then again neither do analysts. Banks have been assuming -25 bps at least and have trimmed their one year fixed home loan rates by this much. But since the last OCR review one year swap rates have fallen -31 bps, so if there is a -50 bps cut on Wednesday, expect those swap rates to fall almost immediately, and banks to follow that up with more fixed rate mortgage reductions. Savers will be looking on nervously because the rates offered to them in term deposits also face the same downward pressures.In Australia, it will be all about the Westpac consumer confidence survey, the NAB business confidence survey, and consumer inflation expectations. And of course, parts of the eastern states are now on Daylight Saving Time, so basically back to 2 hours behind New Zealand (except Brisbane, which stays 3 hours behind).The US government shutdown will remain the focus this week in the world's major financial markets as the extended impasse between members of Congress showed little signs of improvement. The shutdown jeopardises releases from US Federal agencies including the trade balance, jobless claims, and the budget statement after the September jobs report and other key data has already been delayed. Still, the minutes from the FOMC's last meeting is still expected.Among non-US governmental releases, October's Michigan Consumer Sentiment surveyed will be eyed.Over the weekend the ruling LDP party in Japan selected a new prime minister, notable because it is Japan's first female prime minister, Sanae Takaichi. Takaichi, 64, was known to be close to the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, another prominent right-wing leader of the LDP. She has publicly stated that she sees former UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher as her role model. She has been called a "China hawk". Some locally fear they may be getting a Liz Truss.In China, the massive Mid-Autumn Festival holiday travel is underway. China's railways handled an all-time record 23.1 million passenger trips last Wednesday, the first day of the eight-day holiday.Across the Pacific in the US over the weekend, the ISM released its services PMI for September and that showed a sector no longer expanding. New orders did though, barely, but a sharp slowdown from August's rise. Business activity actually contracted, down near the brief dip in mid-2024, and apart from that its lowest level since the pandemic in 2020. Analysts were not expecting this widely-watched metric to be so downbeat.Price rise impulses were restrained. Businesses are not able to pass on the tariff taxes in full, and that makes them feel quite constrained.In Canada, five provinces raised their minimum wages last week, following five who did it earlier in the year. As a result, British Columbia is now at C$17.85/hr (NZ$21.95), Ontario is at C$17.60/hr. Quebec at C$16.10/hr and Alberta is the lowest at C$15/hr (NZ$18.45).Canadian housing markets are operating on a two-track basis now; rising sales volumes and falling sales prices. In Toronto, sales volumes rose +8.5% in September from a year ago to 5592 homes sold, but average prices fell -4.7% on the same basis. And that was despite a central bank rate cut in the month.More globally, the FAO global food price index fell in September and in part that was due to retreating dairy prices. But they are still +9% higher than year-ago levels. On the other hand, meat prices rose again to be +6.6% higher than year-ago levels. Sheepmeat surged on limited supply and good demand. Beef prices rose sharply to all-time high levels.And we should probably note that after rising to €84/tonne in 2024 to start this year, EU carbon prices then fell to about €60/tonne at the end of March. But since then they have risen back to almost €80/tonne now and putting on a bit of a spurt in early October. While local carbon markets are struggling, the same is not true elsewhere.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.12% and unchanged from Saturday but down -6 bps for the week.The price of gold will start today at US$3885/oz, up +US$3 from Saturday and a new high. That is up +US$113 or +2.9% from a week ago. Silver had another big spurt this week, now just under US$48/oz, a weekly gain of +3.8%.American oil prices are softish at just under US$61/bbl, but down -US$4 from a week ago, with the international Brent price now just on US$64.5 and down -$5.50 from a week ago.The Kiwi dollar is at just over 58.3 USc, little-changed from Saturday but up +50 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we holding at 88.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 65.6, up +10 bps from Saturday and up +40 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$122,805 and virtually unchanged from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

On "The Lead" - what effect is the government shutdown having on economic data? Jason talks with UST economist Dr. Tyler Schipper. Then on "Page 2" - want to own a St. Paul skyscraper?

White Claw Zero, UST WHockey on a tear, Caribou Coffee Fall Items, Lynx Season cut short, UNRL, Vikings vs. Steelers recap, MLB Playoff Update, UST & Fox9+ schedule, Gopher football Rutgers Recap, Gopher FB @ Ohio State Preview, Vikings vs. Browns Preview, CFB Week 6 Bets, Kirill extended, NFL Week 5 bets & more!!!

St. Thomas men's hockey coach Rico Blasi talks about the program's new building, Lee and Penny Anderson Arena, which opens in a few weeks. We also get into the strong foundation the Tommies have laid down over their transition to Division I. UST is the preseason favorite to win the CCHA before moving to the NCHC next season. St. Thomas opens up Saturday at St. Cloud State.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US is throwing out its existing economic playbooks and replacing it with personal revenge and retribution.First, there is no progress on the US federal government shutdown, other than Trump declaring it an 'unprecedented opportunity' to defund his opponents. The childishness of the approach by a world power is something to behold.Almost certainly, there will be no US non-farm payrolls report tomorrow due to the Federal government shutdown. That will save the Administration from what would likely be an embarrassing result of job atrophy.US-based employers announced 54,064 job cuts in September, the least in three months, compared to 85,979 in August. But of course, October is off to a very rocky start. So far this year, companies have announced 946,426 job cuts, the highest such level in five year when 2,082,262 were announced. It is up +55% from the 609,242 job cuts announced through the first three quarters of last year and is up +24% from the 2024 full year total of 761,358.In Japan, it may have been only a small improvement from August, but Japan's consumer confidence index rose in September, reaching its highest level since December 2024. Most components improved, including overall livelihood, employment outlook, and willingness to buy durable goods.In Australia, household spending inched higher by just +0.1% in August to be +5.0% than year-ago levels. It was held back by lower spending on booze and recreation, lifted by higher spending on transport.Aussie exports were weak in August, mainly because of lower gold exports. This means August goods exports were -3.5% lower than year ago levels. Imports were +4.5% higher on the same basis.And the Australian First Home Buyer scheme is open and accepting applications. The word is that demand is strong. The scheme allows buyers to buy with extreme leverage - as little as a 2% deposit - all backed up by the taxpayer. The extra demand will come at a time of low listing availability, low new build activity, and already high prices. Analysts expect to be watching future house prices zooming higher because of these new incentives and the existing pressures.Global container freight rates were down another -5% last week from the prior week, and it was the same story; the decline was led by outbound rates from China. Bulk cargo rates fell -11% in the past week to be very similar to year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is still at 4.09%, down another -2 bps from yesterday on risk aversion.The price of gold will start today at US$3841/oz, down -US$29 from yesterday.American oil prices are down another -US$1.50 at just on US$60.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$64/bbl. In the US, these much lower prices are not really flowing through to pump prices with current prices little-different to year-ago levels even though US crude prices are -18% lower than then.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.2 USc and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are up +30 bps at 88.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 65.4, and up +10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$119,725 and up +1.7% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, shares how our latest macro thinking has evolved, where our longstanding view that the weak labor market and ongoing large revisions would result in a Fed pivot and a restart of easing in September. There was a high level recap of the special topic from the latest monthly which covered Asia FX reserves. Our analysis shows that we've come full circle since the Asia financial crisis which was the catalyst for Asia to accumulate dollars, but with tariffs now in place, perhaps less dollar recycle occurs with clear implications for UST demand. Lastly, our podcast was recorded on the first official day of the government shutdown. George goes into what are the potential scenarios for the economy and how it could impact the way the team views rates and house view.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news markets are maintaining a wilful blindness in the face of the arrival of some major threats and poor data.Firstly we should note that the US Federal Government is shutting down having reached its debt limit, and in the absence of a compromise reached between Congress (the Senate in this case) and White House. There is no sign that this issue will be resolved soon. The President is using the event to blame everyone else but himself - and the truth is he probably doesn't care what damage he is doing; he's likely relishing it.But it will likely have significant financial market impacts, although today Wall Street is acting like it will be resolved quickly as usual, holding their breath.However, this shutdown could delay the September jobs report due at the weekend. Some are even saying the shutdown could stretch all the way to the Fed's next meeting on October 29. (The US Supreme Court has knocked back Trump's attempt to oust Fed Governor Cook, at least until the new year.) Gold posted another all-time high and is on track for an annual rise +50%, while the US dollar is under pressure.Meanwhile, data out overnight shows there was a huge drop in US mortgage applications last week, the largest in nearly a year. Refinance activity dropped the most, but finance for new home purchases dropped notably too. Benchmark mortgage interest rates didn't move much, up just +12 bps and still on a declining trend.News on their labour market front wasn't good for September either. In advance of this weekend's non-farm payrolls report, the ADP Employment Report was expected to reveal a low +50,000 jobs gain. But in fact it came in with a -32,000 jobs loss for the month. It isn't clear yet whether the non-farm payrolls report will be released given the shutdown. The ADP version may be all the markets get on how the giant US labour market is tracking.And it really isn't any better on the factory floor. The latest ISM factory PMIfor September is still in contraction (49.1) with the new order component retreating from August. (But the S&P Global factory PMI which we reported last week is a bit more upbeat. Even so it reports slowing demand.)All this will depress American economic growth. But it may also raise inflation. The frequent shocks to global supply chains from factors such as the American tariffs leave central banks with limited tools to combat rising risks of inflation, according to the Governor of the Canadian central bank in a recent interview.Canada's factories are slowing too.Across the Pacific, similar factory PMIs show Japan contracting, Korea moving back into expansion on strong new orders, Taiwan going backwards, and Indonesia in a minor expansion again on the back of better new orders.So it won't be a surprise to lean that September exports from Korea rose sharply to their best level since mid-2024.In China, their Golden Week national holiday is underway, starting an enormous surge in travel by vacationers. International markets will notice the surge.In Australia, Cotality is reporting a surge in house prices driven by a worrying combination of low new supply, very low listing levels, and new low-deposit arrangements bringing in more demand. House prices jumped in all capital cities in September, led by Perth and Brisbane, but the most notable change is the rise in Sydney.The UST 10yr yield is still at 4.11%, down -3 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3870/oz, up +US$23 from yesterday and a new all-time high. Silver is back up to US$47.50/oz.American oil prices are down another -50 USc at just under US$62/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$65.50/bbl and down -US$1.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.1 USc and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are up +40 bps at 88 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 49.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 65.3, and also up +20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,765 and up +4.3% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US faces a federal government shutdown as markets start to realise Trump has no problem being reckless and has no problem hurting his 'friends'..But first, there was another Pulse dairy auction overnight. And that brought marginally weaker prices for both SMP and WMP, down a bit less than -0.5% in USD terms. In fact these prices are now at their lowest level of 2025. But because the NZD is falling, the prices achieved actually rose about the same amount in local currency.In the US, the number of job openings in August were virtually unchanged from July at 7.2 mln as was expected.But the Chicago PMI fell again in September, well below market expectations that it would improve. And the dip was sharp, the most in three months.Also weaker was the Dallas Fed services sector with their retail sector retreating rather fast in an unusual move lower.Adding to the downbeat sentiment was the September report from the Conference Board showing consumers are glummer than at any time since the start of the year. A common theme in the survey responses is the impact of rising inflation.And the downbeat sentiment may well get worse, and quickly. The White House seems to relish a full government shutdown to start their fiscal year tomorrow with mass firings rather than furloughs. And Trump says some American cities he considers dangerous should become training grounds for American troops, proposing 'his' troops be used to fight other Americans in their home cities. It is getting toxic very fast there.For their economy, there is a real possibility now that this weekend's non-farm payrolls release will be cancelled because the department releasing it will be closed. If that turns out to be the case, it could mask some quite weak results. Analysts now expect less than a +50,000 gain.Financial markets are downplaying the risks of all this, mainly because there have been many 'shutdown' crises over the decades. But at least the earlier ones involved parties prepared to reach a deal. Maybe not this time.Across the Pacific in China, their official factory PMI contracted again. But even though it is the sixth straight monthly contraction, the pace of decline was the least in that time. (Their factory PMI rose in February and March, but only by marginal levels.) Their official services PMI for September is no longer expanding. These official PMIs have been more conservative than the private surveys (RatingDog, ex Caixin) probably because they have a heavier weighting to Chinese SOEs. The private ones are more attuned to private and foreign enterprises, surveyed by S&P Global, and they report a faster expanding factory sector, and solidly expanding services sector.Meanwhile, China has frozen imports of BHP iron ore in a pricing dispute. BHP is their third largest supplier after Rio Tinto and Brazil's Vale.Taiwanese consumer sentiment rose in September, but to be fair the bar is low because it has been stunted since May.In Europe, Germany said their CPI inflation edged up to 2.4% in September, marginally above the August level. But ist was a rise that was slightly more than expected.In Australia, there were no surprises from their central bank which held its cash rate target at 3.6%. But even though this hold was all priced in, there was some surprising reaction in financial markets. Somehow the decision was regarded as 'hawkish' and the AUD rose and benchmark bond interest rates fell on the news. The strong currency remained although the bond move was later reversed. Air cargo volumes in August grew +4.1% globally, driven by a near +10% rise from a year ago in the Asia/Pacific region. But notably, North American air cargo volumes fell -2.1% on the same basis in August, the weakest global region. And the pattern was similar for passenger travel. Asia/Pacific and Latin America brought strong growth, underpinning a +4.6% expansion, but North America lagged here too, only up +0.5% from a year ago.The UST 10yr yield is still at 4.14%, unchanged from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3846/oz, up +US$16 from yesterday and a new all-time high. Silver is -50 USc softer however.American oil prices are down another -50 USc at just over US$62.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$66.50/bbl and down more than -US$1.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58 USc and up +20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are down -30 bps at 87.6 AUc and a new three year low. Against the euro we are little-changed at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 65.1, and unchanged.The bitcoin price starts today at US$112,876 and down -0.8% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news gold is soaring on US missteps, and oil is falling as demand falters while supply is rising fast.Overnight US data was mixed. August pending home sales came in a little better than expected, up +4.0% from July, but only up +3.8% from year ago levels which themselves were relatively stunted. Less than 20% of American realtors expect the next three months to improve.But the Dallas Fed factory survey reported a sharpish turn lower, a second consecutive monthly contraction in manufacturing activity and the steepest since June. But they still have growth, just far less. New orders dipped again. Costs continue to rise faster than selling prices.The chances of a US federal government shutdown are rising with compromise no longer in anyone's vocabulary. Trump thinks no-one will blame him for his intransigence.And apparently, the next US tariff target is movie production - something both Australian and New Zealand creative industries will look at with trepidation.Singapore reported their producer prices rose. They grew by +1.1% in August from a year ago, after a -2.4% drop in the previous month. And this was their first producer price inflation since March 2025.Later today, China will release its August PMI data, the key releases before their Golden Week holiday break that starts tomorrow.In India, industrial production rose +4.0% in August from a year ago, slowing slightly from the upwardly revised 4.3% growth rate in July, but less than the expected +5% increase. Still, the result continued a reasonable first half of the year, showing that initial tariffs by the Americans did not have a significant immediate impact on their industrial activity.But today's big news will be the RBA's upcoming rate review. Analysts expect no change at 3.6%. Financial markets are of the same view with nothing priced in to secondary market wholesale rates. But the RBA will be weighing the impact of relatively strong labour markets, good economic growth, low budget deficits and a strong fiscal impulse, along with rising CPI inflation touching 3.0% in August. Waiting could leave them with a harder-to-control inflation problem, although to be fair, no-one expects a rise today even if many think it would be warranted and wise.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.14%, down -5 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3830/oz, up +US$72 from yesterday and a new all-time high. Silver had yet another big spurt, now almost at US$47/oz. This latest surge puts the US gold stockpile at Fort Knox and the NY Fed now worth more than US$1 tln.American oil prices are down a sharpish -US$2 at just over US$63/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$67.50/bbl. With global demand wavering, the planned OPEC increase, plus the resumption of Iraqi oil from their Kurdistan region has traders talking about a glut.The Kiwi dollar is at just over 57.8 USc and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are down -25 bps at 87.9 AUc and that is the lowest in three years. Against the euro we are little-changed at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 65.1, down -10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$113,795 and up +3.2% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at under +/- 1.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Northern Soda Co, CFB Week 5 Bets, UST WHockey underway, UST & UofM Football back in action, UNRL, UST MHockey Preaseason Love, NFL Week 4 Bets Ranking NFLs 0-3 teams, Vikings Big Win over Bengals, Wild Preseason Underway, Vikings across the Pond and more!!!

One way in which the University of St. Thomas is  trying to realize its mission to "educate students...to work skillfully...to advance the common good" is with a new course  called Work and the Good Life. Most of our students come here expecting that their college degrees will help them find jobs out of college. But as UST President Rob Vischer says, one reason that we have stellar employment outcomes is that we care about more than employment outcomes. We're helping to form whole human beings, not just working people. And most of those people don't just want paid employment; a Gallup study a few years ago found that 80+% of them want a purpose, but only around half of them would find it early in their careers. So this course is designed to enable  students to think critically about their career choices so they can act wisely on the way to work that serves a worthwhile purpose in their lives and those of others.In the first of a three-part speaker series, students heard from UST alum Quentin Moore about his quest for work and the good life. Sponsored by The Melrose & The Toro Company Center for Principled Leadership. Produced by Nicole Zwieg Daly, JD, EdD, CPPM. Engineered by Tom Forliti.

Podcast with Ust. & Thikra-Studios

You Were Not Meant to Be Alone : Reclaiming the Jama‘ah in an Age of Isolation by Ust. Thomas Alameddine. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week's The Summit League Segment highlights the University of St. Thomas Tommies and includes an interview with UST junior Elsie Kmecak. Plus highlights of this past week's Kwik Star Summit League Peak Performers, news from around The Summit League, and more.

On "The Lead" - was today's quarter-point rate cut by the Fed enough? Jason talks with Dr. Tyler Schipper from UST. On "Page 2" - Brian Setzer is selling some guitars. (Photo by Rick Diamond/Getty Images)

5pm Hour: On The DeRush-Hour Headlines - was today's rate cut by the Fed enough? Jason talks with Dr. Tyler Schipper from UST. Then, what's grinding your gears this week? Jason and listeners share what they've had ENOUGH of!

APAC stocks traded mixed amid some cautiousness ahead of upcoming risk events and despite the fresh record levels on Wall St.US Appeals Court declined to allow Trump to remove Federal Reserve Governor Cook; Cook can attend the FOMC's September 16th-17th meeting.US Senate voted 48-47 to confirm US President Trump's Fed nominee Miran to join the Fed board.European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.1% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.9% on Monday.DXY is a touch softer, extending on yesterday's downside. JPY marginally outperforms, whilst antipodeans lag.Crude futures marginally extended on the prior advances. 10yr UST futures plateaued overnight after catching a bid yesterdayLooking ahead, highlights include UK Jobs Report (Jul), Italian CPI Final (Aug), EZ Industrial Production (Jul), Labour Costs (Q2), German ZEW Survey (Sep), US Retail Sales (Aug) and Industrial Production (Aug), Import Prices (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP, Canadian CPI (Aug), RBA's Hauser & ECB's Escriva, Supply from Germany, UK & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Without a doubt, the introduction of stablecoins has vastly increased overall crypto liquidity, adoption and real-world use cases as they offered a safe haven against the industry's volatility, especially during bearmarkets. However, despite being extremely efficient, the main stablecoin actors (i.e. Circle & Tether) are centralised entities. Many attempts have been made to create a reliable decentralised stablecoin, but regulations and the resounding collapse of Terra's UST have only pushed towards more established, yet centralised, variants.f(x) is a new generation CDP (collateralised debt position) protocol that offers on-chain perpetual trading for BTC & ETH with near-0 funding rates and a novel liquidation mechanism which protects users against hard liquidations. The leverage component is powered by emitting fxUSD, the protocol's decentralised stablecoin, which boasts robust peg-keeping mechanisms, the main one being fxSAVE's stability pool. The fxSAVE strategy bestows nearly 10% APY to the yield-bearing fxUSD-USDC pair.Topics covered in this episode:Cyrille's backgroundAladdinDAODecentralised stablecoinsf(x) perps and sharing liquidation risksThe efficiency of progressive liquidationsRemoving funding ratesfxSAVE's stability pool yieldsfxUSD's organic adoptionThe importance of decentralised stablecoinsWinning in the perp arenaOpportunities in the stablecoin adoption raceEpisode links:Cyrille Brière on Xf(x) Protocol on XAladdinDAO on XSponsors:Gnosis: Gnosis builds decentralized infrastructure for the Ethereum ecosystem, since 2015. This year marks the launch of Gnosis Pay— the world's first Decentralized Payment Network. Get started today at - ⁠gnosis.io⁠This episode is hosted by Sebastien Couture.

TikTok, Labubu, "Black Myth: Wukong", "Ne Zha 2" to ostatnie wielkie hity eksportowe Chin. Każdy odniósł spektakularny sukces w swojej dziedzinie. I każdy sprawia, że krok po kroczku wizerunek Chin jest coraz bardziej oswajany. A na horyzoncie czai się kolejny wielki trend. Są to - uwaga - short dramy, czyli jednominutowe odcinki seriali. W 2024 r. short dramy tylko w Chinach przekroczyły wartość 6,9 mld dol., przy okazji tworząc ok. 600 000 miejsc pracy. I powoli zmierzają także do Europy. Czy to działa? A jakże! Chiny w tym roku wskoczyły na 2. miejsce na globalnej liście soft power. Ustępują im wyłącznie Stany Zjednoczone. Zatem jakie efekty odnosi chińska miękka siła? Czy jest zjadliwa dla każdego? I dlaczego prezesi-wilkołaki romansują z ubogimi pokojówkami? GOŚCIE ODCINKA: dr hab. Marcin Jackoby, kierownik Centrum Cywilizacji Azji Wschodniej oraz Zakładu Studiów Azjatyckich na Uniwersytecie SWPS w Warszawie Daria Impiombato, ekspertka ds. chińskiej propagandy z instytutu Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) ROZDZIAŁY: 03:04 Jak Chiny walczą o wizerunek 15:10 Chińskie big techy 20:30 Ne Zha 2 28:40 Labubu i Black Myth 35:29 Short dramy 51:05 Dyplomacja influencerska 59:08 Efekty i co z tym zrobić LINKI - Zestawienie najbardziej kasowych filmów roku: KLIK - Wartość short dram w Chinach: KLIK - O "Black Myth: Wukong": KLIK

11 - Imam Sadi's explanation of Jawaami' Al-Akhbaar | Abu Abdir-Rahmān Hilāl - Manchester Explanation of Shaykh Ubayd al-jaabiree Taught by ‎Ustādh Abu Abdir-Rahmān Hilāl حفظه الله