Podcasts about UST

Without a doubt, the introduction of stablecoins has vastly increased overall crypto liquidity, adoption and real-world use cases as they offered a safe haven against the industry's volatility, especially during bearmarkets. However, despite being extremely efficient, the main stablecoin actors (i.e. Circle & Tether) are centralised entities. Many attempts have been made to create a reliable decentralised stablecoin, but regulations and the resounding collapse of Terra's UST have only pushed towards more established, yet centralised, variants.f(x) is a new generation CDP (collateralised debt position) protocol that offers on-chain perpetual trading for BTC & ETH with near-0 funding rates and a novel liquidation mechanism which protects users against hard liquidations. The leverage component is powered by emitting fxUSD, the protocol's decentralised stablecoin, which boasts robust peg-keeping mechanisms, the main one being fxSAVE's stability pool. The fxSAVE strategy bestows nearly 10% APY to the yield-bearing fxUSD-USDC pair.Topics covered in this episode:Cyrille's backgroundAladdinDAODecentralised stablecoinsf(x) perps and sharing liquidation risksThe efficiency of progressive liquidationsRemoving funding ratesfxSAVE's stability pool yieldsfxUSD's organic adoptionThe importance of decentralised stablecoinsWinning in the perp arenaOpportunities in the stablecoin adoption raceEpisode links:Cyrille Brière on Xf(x) Protocol on XAladdinDAO on XSponsors:Gnosis: Gnosis builds decentralized infrastructure for the Ethereum ecosystem, since 2015. This year marks the launch of Gnosis Pay— the world's first Decentralized Payment Network. Get started today at - ⁠gnosis.io⁠This episode is hosted by Sebastien Couture.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news bond markets are increasingly worried about what will transpire from the US CPI data for August later this week, and the US Fed's reaction next week.First today, American inflation expectations seem to be rising. In August they came in at 3.2%, their highest in three months. While that is higher than year ago levels too, some of the detail is a bit of a worry. Those surveyed say rents are expected to rise 6.0%, food by 5.5% and petrol by 3.9%. Also of some note is that job finding expectations have now fallen to a record low in a data series that started in June 2013. More than 14% of those surveyed say they are likely to lose their job in the year ahead. There is a palpable sense of fear and squeeze in these survey results. The fast-tightening labour market has many on edge.Meanwhile, August data for American consumer debt shows it rising, up +3.8% from a year ago with revolving debt up a sharp +9.7% on the same basis. Debt levels at credit unions seem to be leading the rises. These are all three year highs and the sudden shift likely indicates rising debt stress.The USD is falling, heading towards a three year low. Benchmark bond yields are falling and the UST 10 year is near a one year low.Across the Pacific, Chinese exports grew by +4.4% in August from a year ago, a level many others would like to have but it is lower than the expected +5% and July's +7.2% growth. And it is the softest pace of outbound shipment growth since February. Meanwhile their imports were up +1.3% in August on the same basis, less than the expected +3% and July's +4.1% rise. But that meant that their trade balance swelled to +US$102 bln in August, better than the +US$99 expected and higher than July's +US$91 bln.While China's exports and imports to the US eased back in August, they still ran a +US$24.3 bln monthly surplus with this strategic rival and that isn't declining materially. It's the largest surplus they run with anyone, although the combined nations of the EU ran a larger deficit with China at US$28.9 bln in August.In Japan, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigned over the weekend and new candidates are lining up to replace him. Financial markets are buoyant there on the prospect that a new leaders may chase fiscal expansion.And in France, their prime minister has lost a confidence vote.In Germany, their exports came in slightly weaker than expected in August when a rise was anticipated. But it was still a good gain on a year ago, and helped them maintain a healthy trade surplus. Meanwhile German industrial production came in much better in July than expected, bouncing back from a weak June.The UST 10yr yield is now under 4.05%, down -4 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today surging to a new high at US$3,633/oz, up +US$47 from yesterday.American oil prices are a bit firmer, up less than +50 USc at just under US$62.50/bbl with the international Brent price also firmer just on US$66/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just over 59.3 USc and up +40 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +20 bps at 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66.7, up +30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$112,282 and up 1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 1.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news American right-wing swamp populism is driving the world's economy into a blind alley. Other countries are trying to figure out how to separate themselves from that.In the week ahead, financial markets will be assessing the risks of stagflation after the weaker labour market report in the US, and the growing expectation that inflation's new rise will pick up steam. In the US we will get August CPI and PPI data at the end of the week and their core CPI rate could well rise from its July 3.1% rate. That data will be put in context with the next University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey update.Inflation data from both China and India is also due, but little upward pressure is expected to be seen from either of them. In China, new initiatives on support measures to keep their economy from stuttering are expected this week largely to fend of deflationary pressures.The ECB will be reviewing its policy rates this week, but no change is expected. Inflation is no threat there, giving them options.Over the weekend we got a keenly anticipated American update on their labour market. It turned out that analysts were right to think the low forecast of a +75,000 rise in US non-farm jobs was optimistic. In fact they came in at +22,000 for August. June data was revised down by -27,000 and the change for July was revised up by +6,000. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 21K lower than previously reported. Trump's firing of the agency that reports this data isn't changing the sharp trend lower. Trump now has to own this trend.In fact, the total jobs added in May, June, July and August in 2025 is about the same as was added in August 2024 alone. For them its a concerning trajectory but it can all be traced to junk public policy.Worse, the data shows that manufacturing jobs fell -12,000 in August with clearly no sign of factory jobs reshoring.If we look at the unadjusted data for civilian employment - which accounts for more than just those on employer payrolls, the July to August change was a -511,000 reduction. It's a time when the self-employed are really struggling.All this downbeat data is reflected in the financial markets on Friday. Wall Street was down -0.3%, bond yields fell sharply again, and the USD weakened. The pall spread to Europe too where they are digesting the latest US strategic insult.The chance of a rate cut by the Fed has now become a certainty in financial market pricing as the central bank is scrambling to contain the growing fiscal mess which looks like it is going to be much larger than feared, and much sooner. A full -25 bps rate cut is priced in for the mid-September meeting, and another before the end of the year. Trump will get his rate cuts because of his actions to tank the US economy. But there are voting members who still insist that inflation should be contained before they cut. The next US CPI data is due in a week and the current +2.7% inflation rate is widely expected to rise to 2.9% and a core rate back over 3.0% which emphasises the risks stagflation's effects are hurting the world's largest economy.It was no better in Canada where payroll employment fell -65,500 in August from July largely due to a sharp fall in part-time employment (-59,700). The trade shock with the US is getting the blame here too.In Canada they watch the Ivey PMI closely and that shifted from a modest expansion in July to none in August. But at least it wasn't contracting. Consistent with their official jobs data, the employment sub-component of this PMI was contracting.A -25 bps rate cut there is also priced in before the end of 2025. Canadian August inflation is expected to come in little-changed at 1.7% on September 16, 2025.The Canadian government is taking an activist approach to protecting their economy with a major support announcement on Friday.Data out across the Pacific was far more encouraging. Singapore said its retail activity expanded far more than expected in July, and is now up +4.1% from June, up +4.8% from a year ago. It has been on a rising trend for almost all of 2025.And China said its fx reserves rose to US$3.32 tln in August, its highest since late 2015. And it purchased a bit more gold in the month, helped by the rise in the gold price of course, which adds another US$2.5 tln to to reserves which now total US$3.64 tln.In Australia, extended June quarter labour market data showed that the number of total jobs there increased +0.3% to 16.3 million. Filled jobs rose +0.2% to 16.0 million where secondary jobs decreased -1.2% to 1.0 million and multiple job-holders decreased -1.3% to 948,900. Hours worked increased +0.3% to 6.0 billion hours in the quarterThe FAO global food price monitoring shows that in August overall prices were stable and just marginally higher than where they ended 2024. Dairy prices look like they have peaked but meat prices are still rising driven by beef and sheep meats.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.09%, unchanged from yesterday at this time. That makes the weekly backslide -14 bps and to a five month low. The price of gold will start today at US$3,585/oz, down -US$7 from Saturday and just off its record high. That is up almost +US$150 from a week ago and a sharp +4.4% risk aversion rise for the week.American oil prices are a bit softer at just under US$62/bbl on the struggling US domestic prospects with the international Brent price also softer just on US$65.50/bbl. A big new burst of crude production is on its way too.The Kiwi dollar is at just over 58.9 USc and little-changed from Saturday. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 89.9 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66.4, up +10 bps from Saturday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$111,046 and down a mere +0.1% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news financial markets can now taste a US Fed rate cut.Today, all eye are on tomorrow's August non-farm payrolls report for the US. Analysts expect them to rise a minor +75,000 but overnight labour market data suggests that may be optimistic.First, US initial jobless claims rose last week to 197,000 when seasonal factors suggested it should have fallen. There are now more than 1.89 mln people on these benefits, +90,000 more than at the same time last year.Announced August job cuts came in at 86,000 in August, +40% more than in July. So far this year, companies have announced 892,000 job cuts, the highest year-to-date level since 2020 when 1,963,500 were announced. It is up +66% from the same period last year and is now +17% higher in 2025's eight months than all of the 2024 full calendar year total (of 761,500).Maintaining the weakening theme, the ADP Employment Report only reported a jobs gain of +54,000 in August, below the expected low +65,000 and well below July's +106,000. In August 2024 this data showed a +180,000 rise.US labour productivity is improving however, with faster rises in output while labour hours only show a modest increase. Year on year this productivity measure is up +1.1%.And there was better PMI data out for the US services sector with the widely-watched ISM version expanding slightly more than expected, while the S&P Global/Markit version expanded better even if it was adjusted lower than its earlier 'flash' version. Encouragingly, in both versions new order flows kept these metrics positive and they are at similar levels as a year ago.US exports were little-changed in July from a year ago, as were the level of imports. That resulted in a goods & services trade deficit almost identical to a year ago. Still, it is now at a four month high. Tariffs have yet to move the trade needle either way (other than collect much more tax from importers).Financial market reactions to this generally downbeat economic news - was upbeat, on the basis that it makes a Fed rate cut on September 18 (our time) more likely. Equities rose modestly, but bond yields fell quite hard.Meanwhile Canada also said its exports, imports and trade balance was little-different in July from June, although quite a bit worse than year-ago levels. But the deficit is still quite small (-C$4.9 bln) in relation to the Canadian economy, and their smallest deficit in four months.In China, they are rolling out a new policy to try and juice up consumption - State-subsidised personal loans. Like the rest of the world, but more so in China, "moire debt" is the answer to all economic problems.With headline inflation at just 1.4%, the Malaysian central bank kept its policy rate unchanged overnight at 2.75%.EU retail sales slipped in July from June, but remain +2.2% higher than year-ago levels. They report on a volume basis, so these gains are 'real'.In Australia, household spending is strong and rising. It was up +5.1% in July from the same month a year ago, up +0.5% in July from June which is an even faster rate. That's the third month in a row it has risen and it has risen in nine of the past ten months. In July, this spending was concentrated on services, especially health services, hotel accommodation, air travel, and dining out. But they actually cut back on spending on goods.Meanwhile, the Australian trade balance turned up after a series of declines. Markets expected a +AU$5 bln surplus in July after a +AU$5.4 bln surplus they got in June. But in fact the surplus came in as +AU$7.4 bln in July, helped by a +3.3% monthly rise in exports and a -1.3% monthly fall in imports. That means the surplus hit a 21 month high.Global container freight rates were virtually unchanged last week from the prior week, although still down massively from the Red Sea crisi affected year ago levels. Interestingly, outbound rates from China to the US rose a sharpish +8% or more last week, but that was balanced by large falls in the China-to-Europe trade. Bulk cargo rates are still in a narrow band, little-changed from last week.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.17%, down another -5 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,543/oz, down -US$30 from yesterday.American oil prices are little-changed at just over US$63.50/bbl with the international Brent price -50 USc softer just on US$67/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 58.4 USc and down -40 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps 89.6 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -20 bps at 50.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 66.1, down -20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$109,830 and down -2.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world's largest economy is being hit today with a string of pessimistic data reports, despite one of the tech giants avoiding a breakup which saw its shares surge to a record high.American job openings fell by 176,000 to 7.18 mln in July and that was the lowest level since September 2024 and well below market expectations of 7.4 mln. Interestingly, there was wide regional variation with openings dropping most in the South, down -161,000, while they rose in the West, up by +113,000 openings.So it won't be a surprise to learn that mortgage applications fell again last week, the third consecutive weekly retreat. This happened even though mortgage interest rates were little-changed.And it also won't be too much of a surprise to learn that US factory orders declined also in July from June, down an outsized -1.3% - and the June data was revised lower to be down -4.3%. New durable goods orders were down -2.8% in July. These won't be welcome trends, especially as tariffs were supposed to bolster US manufacturing. Year-on-year the July levels are up +1.8% and well below what can be accounted for by inflation. But it will be the recent sharper trends lower that are most concerning.So the Fed's August Beige Book note of "flat to declining consumer spending because, for many households, wages were failing to keep up with rising prices. Contacts frequently cited economic uncertainty and tariffs as negative factors." will come as no surprise.In China, all the news is about its massive military parade in Tiananmen Square. This one follows similar shows of force that started in Pyongyang on April 15, followed in Tehran on April 20, then Moscow on May 9, and Washington DC on June 14. All organised by authoritarians. It's a militarisation trend that is very retrograde. And they are massive propaganda exercises, so it is disappointing that some of our politicians want to be seen at them. But like many others, they follow the money and incentives.Staying in China, the RatingDog (ex-Caixin) services PMI for August expanded faster than July and to a good level, better than expected and the fastest expansion in their services sector since May 2024. New orders grew at the strongest pace since May 2024, supported by a stronger rise in new export business, which increased at the fastest rate in six months. Like yesterday's RatingDog factory PMI, this survey as also better than the official services PMI.And South Korean officials now say they want to join the CPTPP, as insurance against US tariff moves against them. The path won't be easy for them, mainly because they have built up insulations and protections against Japanese investment making inroads into their economy.In Europe, producer prices were only up a modest +0.4% in July from a year ago, confirming they seem to have a good lid on inflation there. But the more recent indications are rises that are slightly above that (at a rate of +0.6%). At least the Europeans don't have the pressure of self-imposed tariff-taxes. Their cost competitive position vs the US is improving sharply.Australian economic activity grew +0.6% in Q2-2025, accelerating from an upwardly revised +0.3% in Q1 and better than analyst expectations of +0.5%. Year on year Australian GDP was up +1.8%, above forecasts of +1.6% and the fastest pace since Q3 2023.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.22%, down -6 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,573/oz, up +US$47 from yesterday and surging to yet another new record high. Silver has moved higher too and now over US$41/oz.American oil prices are -US$2 lower at just over US$63.50/bbl with the international Brent price holding just under US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 58.8 USc and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps 89.8 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 66.3, unchanged from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$112,443 and up +1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that US financial markets are back from holiday and concluding that the tech sector is over-valued and that US public policy is heading into a blind alley. The bond market sentiment we noted in the past month has now spread into the equity markets.And you can see the rising risk aversion in the gold price, driving it sharply higher today into new territory.At the overnight dairy auction, prices slumped more than -4.3% in US dollar terms. The situation was 'saved' somewhat by the sharpish recent fall in the NZD, so in local currency terms it was 'only' down -3.5%. Both the milk powders retreated sharply, with SMP down -5.8% and WMP down -5.3%. Most other milk fat commodities fell too with the notable exception of cheddar cheese which was up +3.6%.Although its only one event, the dominant WMP price is now back to early 2025 levels, and with a bit of a thud. Analysts will be keeping an eye on this, unlikely to shift their farmgate price forecasts but wouldn't want these lower levels to repeat. But good global supply levels won't help future prices especially if demand turns soft and it seems to be doing in some key markets.In the US, the widely-watched ISM factory PMI was still contracting at a concerning rate in August. And that was despite a small rise in new orders. Both measures were lower than expected. The alternate S&P Global/Markit PMI told a different story however, rising on more production and inventory building. But it was the ISM one that markets took more notice of.US logistics LMI was little-changed. But the elements like inventory levels and inventory costs are rising at an increasing rate, and these are not good portends.And the RCM/TIPP consumer sentiment index was quite downbeat as well. In fact it fell when a rise was anticipated.In Canada, their factory PMI rose from the deepish contraction it has been in for most of 2025, but it is still not expanding. It too was based on rising production, but no rise in new orders.In Europe, they said their August inflation was running at 2.1%, up marginally from +2.0% in July. Interestingly, energy costs are still retreating but the impact on the overall price level is now much less with food and services prices rising at a much lesser rate now.A new global report is highlighting that electricity demand is on course to rise by +3.3% in 2025 and +3.7% in 2026, more than twice as fast as total energy demand growth over the same period. According to the report, renewables are expected to overtake coal as the world's largest source of electricity generation as early as 2025 or by 2026 at the latest, depending on weather and fuel price trends. At the same time, nuclear power output is expected to reach record highs. The steady increase in natural gas-fired power generation is set to continue displacing coal and oil in the power sector in many regions.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.28%, up +3 bps from yesterday at this time. The key 2-10 yield curve is up at +63 bps. The last time it was this steep was in February 2022. Long dated yields are on the move higher. The UST 30 year yield is actually closing in on 2007 levels and almost at 5%.The price of gold will start today at US$3,526/oz, up +US$50 from yesterday and surging to a new record high. Silver has moved higher too but not as aggressively.American oil prices are +US$1 firmer at just over US$65.50/bbl with the international Brent price holding just over US$69/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 58.7 USc and down -30 bps from yesterday and its lowest level since mid-April. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps 89.9 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 66.3, down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$110,892 and up +1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that while financial markets are quiet due to the US Labor Day holiday, the data being reported in the rest of the world is actually very encouraging, especially for the factory sectors.In China, the private Caixin PMI has a new sponsor - RatingDog. It is still produced by S&P Global. That August factory PMI showed manufacturing output returned to growth in August. Total new business expanded at quickest pace since March. But it also reported the fastest rise in average input prices in nine months. As has become the norm in 2025, this private PMI series is more bullish than the official PMI.While we are noting improved factory PMIs in Australia and China, we should also note that they improved in Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia as well. The Trump tariff-taxes aren't killing these countries. In fact, because it is the American importers who are paying these taxes (and ultimately the American consumer), the whole tariff journey just shows the American's are prepared to pay a lot more for what they import, and demand isn't flagging. Yet, anyway.Of special note is the regaining of momentum in India where their factory PMI turned notably higher on new orders and new-found momentum. This is now their fastest improvement in operating conditions in seventeen and a half years, with production growth accelerating to a nearly five-year high, supported by strong demand and better alignment of supply with orders. New orders rose at the fastest pace in nearly five years, and given they have been strong in the lead-up, this is really saying something.Even European factories are on the move up, returning to expansion with the sharpest rise in factory output since March 2022. Their factory PMI is now at its highest in 41 months.Australia's factory sector expansion accelerated again in August. Higher new order levels, supported by a rise in exports, led to a solid rise in production. Confidence rose to its highest level since February 2022. The survey showed that manufacturers hired more staff and raised their purchasing and inventory levels. Meanwhile price pressures remained little problem.And staying in Australia, their residential building consents fell -8.2% in July from June, almost double the market expectations of a -4.8% fall. This sharply ate into the upwardly revised +12.2% increase in June. The decline was largely due to a sharp fall in approvals for dwellings that weren't houses (apartments and townhouses). By state, approvals fell sharpest in New South Wales (-25%), while rising in Tasmania (+12%), Western Australia (+12%), in Queensland (+5.9%).Lower new homebuilding is juicing up their existing-home real estate markets. Cotality reported strong August gains from July, up +0.7% for the month nationally. It's back as a strong sellers market. The rises in Brisbane and Perth are notable, but the gains in Adelaide and Sydney were not far behind them in August. The consequences for affordability for most aspiring buyers look awful.We should probably also note that the forecast for Australia's wheat crop was raised sharply in an overnight update. Good rains recently is behind the revision.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time. The key 2-10 yield curve is up at +62 bps. The last time it was this steep was in February 2022. Long dated yields are on the move higher. The UST 30 year yield is actually closing in on 2007 levels. The price of gold will start today at US$3,477/oz, up +US$30 from yesterday and a new record high. Silver topped US$40/oz for the first time since 2011, also near a record high.American oil prices are +50 USc firmer at just over US$64.50/bbl with the international Brent price holding just over US$68/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 59 USc and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps 90 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps as well at 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 66.4, down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,918 and little-changed (down -0.1%) from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news there was an unexpected turn in the US tariff situation late last week.In a dramatic ruling, most of Trump's global tariffs were declared illegal by a US appeals court that found he exceeded his authority in imposing them. He will almost certainly appeal to his Supreme Court.Then, over the weekend we got the official Chinese PMIs for August and they extended the sluggish environment their manufacturing sector finds itself in. Despite the 90 'extension' before punitive tariffs kick in with the US, orders contracted for a fifth consecutive month. On the services side however, they maintained their small expansion in August, albeit marginally better.But early data suggests their housing slump is not ending, maybe even getting worse. Sale volumes in August are likely to be more than -17% lower than a year ago.Although it is a shortened week in the US, it ends with the August jobs data. Markets expect another weak result (just +78,000). You will recall the weak data last month saw Trump fire the agency head who compiled it. So there will be special attention this time on its believability under the BLS agency's deputy. Before that we will get lead-up jobs data, the ISM PMIs for the US.Canada will also release labour market data. The EU inflation data, and others will release GDP data for Q2-2025, including from Australia on Wednesday.At the end of last week, July data out in the US shows that disposable personal income was up +2.0% from a year ago, personal consumption expenditure was up +2.1% on the same basis. On a month-on-month basis, the income was up +0.4% and expenditure up +0.5%. These elements are not major but they do indicate a tightening in household financial budgets.Nested deep within this release was that core PCE index rose 2.9% year-on-year in July, its largest rise since February and above the Fed's target and comfort zone. Tariff costs are getting the blame. Financial markets noticed.And that is the same sort of tightening indicated by the widely-watched University of Michigan sentiment survey. Its final August version fell back markedly from its initial readings, a clear indication households are finding it tougher. It is now -14% lower than a year ago. The Biden boom is now just a memory.On the factory floor, the latest indicators are shifting down too. The August Chicago PMI headed south quite sharply to be -10% below year-ago levels.And the US seems to be losing the tariff war it started - and Americans are paying the tariff-taxes. The latest trade data for July shows that the US merchandise trade deficit jumped to -US$104 billion in the month, exactly the same as July a year ago, and far above expectations of -US$90 bln deficit. It is their largest in four months. Imports jumped +7.1% from a month earlier, led by industrial supplies, capital goods, food, and consumer goods. Meanwhile, exports slipped -0.1%.Certainly, American farmers are not happy. And they have a President who probably doesn't even know where Pakistan is, let alone most other simple facts.In Canada, they got a sharp dose of shock in their Q2-2025 GDP result from the sharp turn on them from their southern neighbour. Their GDP fell -0.4% in the quarter and cancelling out the +0.5% gain in their first quarter. Year-on-year their GDP is still up +0.9% however.Across the Pacific the economic data is generally much more positive. South Korea's retail sales surged +2.5% in July from June, a big jump from a revised +0.7% increase in June and marking the fastest growth in over two years. From a year ago it is up +2.4% and that too is the most since January 2022.South Korean industrial production grew solidly in July as well, up +5.0% from a year ago.After a good gain in June, Japan's industrial production fell -1.6% in July, reversing a +2.1% June gain and much more than the -1.0% decline anticipated.Japanese retail sales only rose by +0.3% in July from a year ago, slowing sharply from a downwardly revised +1.9% gain in June and falling well short of market expectations for a +1.8% increase.But Japanese consumer confidence actually rose in August to its best level of the year with gains across all surveyed questions.We should also note that protests in Jakarta on Friday that turned deadly have put Indonesia on edge. They have spread over the weekend. Canberra will be watching nervously.In Europe, the ECB's survey found that consumer inflation expectations were stable ("well anchored") in July at 2.6% for the year ahead.Globally, air passenger demand was up +4.0% in July, driven by the Asia/Pacific +5.7% rise and held back by the North American +1.9% rise. Most of this is due to international travel. Meanwhile, air cargo traffic was even stronger in July, up +5.5% from a year ago, up +6.0% for international trade. Asia/Pacific was the strongest region here too, up +11.0% for international cargoes. But North American international cargo volumes only rose +1.5%, the weakest global region.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.23%, unchanged from Saturday, but down -3 bps from a week ago. The price of gold will start today at US$3,447/oz, up another +US$5 from Saturday, and close to a new record high, but basically a measure of the USD markdown. A week ago it was at US$3,371/oz so a net +US$76 gainAmerican oil prices are again little-changed at US$64/bbl with the international Brent price holding just under US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 59 USc and unchanged from Saturday at this time, up +30 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are holding at 90.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged as well at 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66.5, and unchanged from Saturday, up +20 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$109,022 and up +0.5% from this time Saturday. But is down -6.7% for the week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news markets have brushed off the Nvidia result and chosen to extend their risk appetite. The S&P500 is at another new record high. But bond markets aren't so sure this is justified.In the real world, US initial jobless claims were little-changed last week from the prior week, both in actual terms and from what seasonal factors would have suggested. There are now 1,945,000 people on these benefits, +101,500 more than at the same time last year.The American GDP Q2-2025 GDP was revised slightly higher in its second estimate than the first mainly due to a slightly smaller decline in investment.Pending home sales fell -0.4% in July from June, extending the -0.8% drop in the prior month to mark the first back-to-back contraction since January. They were down -0.7% from a year ago as the American housing market seems in a long-term slow decline having never really recovering from the pandemic period.The Kansas City Fed factory survey was stable overall but that was despite a fall in export orders and elevated cost pressures. survey. There was a modest rise in August from July, but most metrics are still lower than a year ago.Earlier today there was a much less supported US Treasury seven year bond auction (-11% less bid value) but the median yield fell to 3.87% from 4.06% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In Canada they reported that average weekly earnings were up +3.7% to C$1,302 in June, following a +3.3% increase in May.In India, industrial production rose in July and the pace picked up by more than expected. The expansion was +3.5% when +2.1% was anticipated, and more than double the pace of June's +1.5%.In Europe, despite their inflation pressures being modest and on target, settling it at 2.0%, the overnight release of the ECB minutes revealed a split among policy makers on how to assess future risk. They left their policy rate unchanged despite some thinking rates need to go lower to support growth and counter US tariffs, while others thinking the risk of future inflation is rising. Despite that split review, in the end the decision to hold rates unchanged was unanimous.Global container shipping freight rates fell -6% last week from the week before to be -60% lower than year-ago levels, although that year-ago base reflected unusual stress in the Red Sea shipping lanes. Once again, the recent falls are all to do with outbound trade from China. Interestingly, Chinese shippers are now targeting Australia and New Zealand, along with the Middle East because of the higher rates they can get in these alternative trades. Bulk cargo rates are little changed week-on-week but are up nearly +20% from a year ago.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.21%, down -3 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,415/oz, up +US$20 from yesterday.American oil prices are little-changed at US$64/bbl with the international Brent price is still just under US$68/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.9 USc and up +30 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 90.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 66.4, and up a net +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$112,596 and up +0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we need to brace for an end to the US Fed's independence. It may not be at risk right now, but the signs aren't promising. And politicians everywhere will seize on the mood to pull that level, to ease their own policies that don't deliver. The juice of monetary stimulus is just too enticing, the risks be damned.First in the US, investors are expecting Nvidia's earnings to be reported after the NYSE closing at 8am NZT, seen as a key test for the AI boom driving markets. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are marginally higher in advance of that, while Nvidia shares are little-changed. But the derivatives market in the stock is set for a -6% swing and if that happens, that will be a -NZ$500 bln fall - probably the biggest movement of any economic metric today anywhere in the world. We will know soon enough.Some think we should also watch the share price in Costco and Walmart. They both have lofty valuations that raise the risk of serious correction. These three are all enormous companies - Nvidia has a market cap of an eye-watering US$4.4 tln, Costco US$420 bln, and Walmart is US$770 bln. In each case that is way more than New Zealand's GDP. Walmart plus Costco is approaching Australia's GDP.Staying in the US there was little data out overnight. The volume of mortgage applications softened by -0.5% last week from the previous week, extending the -1.4% trim from the prior month. Applications to refinance an existing mortgage fell by -3.5% offsetting the +2.2% increase in applications for a mortgage to buy a new home.Separately, American officials are decrying the intelligence efforts by the Chinese Ministry of State Security and their 'Salt Typhoon' operation. But they have been caught running covert operations in Greenland. The Dames are unimpressed. Trump's America is no-one's friend. Even at home, his militarisation of local policing, grabbing shares in companies without paying, are worrying developments. His efforts to subvert the Fed are just part of an effective quiet rolling coup with a much broader agenda. These are stand-over tactics that will undermine the US reputation for generations.In Taiwan, their industry may be going at full tilt, but consumer sentiment is actually weakening. An August survey there shows it at its weakest level since April 2023, as five of six key indicators deteriorated.Chinese industrial profits fell again in July, down -1.7% from a year ago in July. They fell -7.5% for SOE's but were up +1.8% for private businesses.Yesterday, there was a big surprise in data released today in Australia on inflation. Their monthly indicator had fallen consistently to 1.9% in June. The RBA was relieved. But the July level came in at 2.8%, an unexpectedly large jump. There will be head-scratching. Higher electricity prices (+13.1%) are getting the blame.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.24%, down -1 bp from yesterday at this time. Long bond yields, especially the 30 year, are rising more quickly now. The price of gold will start today at US$3,395/oz, up +US$14 from yesterday.American oil prices have risen +50 USc to US$64/bbl with the international Brent price now just under US$68/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.6 USc and little-changed from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66.3, and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$112,400 and up +2.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of mixed and confusing economic signals from the world's largest economy where scoring own-goals is becoming an embedded feature of their economic management.But first, there was an overnight Pulse dairy auction for both SMP and WMP and that delivered lower prices with the SMP price dropping -2.0% from the prior week's full dairy auction, and the WMP price down -1.1%In the US, financial markets are quite hesitant because Trump is attempting to fire a non-loyal Fed governor for made-up 'integrity' reasons (pot-kettle-black). Because she in Black, and a woman, Trump's vengeance is particularly pointed.in this case and contrasts starkly with how he treats Powell (which is also personal and isn't good either.) She hasn't been charged with anything let alone convicted, and legal action over the Presidential 'letter' will now follow. She is resisting the bullying. The USD slipped and long dated UST bonds posted losses as market unease spread.Overnight releases of American economic data was quite mixed. First, durable goods orders fell in July from June, down -2.8% and on top of the -9.4% fall in the June result. That takes the year-on-year July result to just a +3.5% rise, about what current inflation can account for. Non-defense, non-aircraft capital goods orders rose a little more than that, up +4.5% from a year ago, so that was positive. But they fell -8.0% in July from June.The Richmond Fed factory survey in the mid-Atlantic states remained negative in August, although not as much as the outsized July retreat. Factories in this region have been doing it tough since March 2025. Cost inflation is hitting them hard as a result of having to pay the tariff taxes. The average growth rate of prices paid increased notably, while growth in prices received was nearly unchanged in August.Yesterday we noted the negative Dallas Fed factory survey for Texas. Today the services survey for the same region was released and it reported a better expansion. But they reported the improvement as 'slight'.There was also only a slight change in consumer sentiment reported by the Conference Board for August. Rising worries about jobs and income were offset by more optimistic views of current and future business conditions, they said. Overall, consumer confidence dipped slightly in August but remained at a level similar to those of the past three months. Tariff-taxes are a key reason there is no improvement in this survey. Consumers' average 12-month inflation expectations picked up after three consecutive months of easing and reached 6.2% in August, up from 5.7% in July.Once rare seven-year car loans are fast becoming the norm in the US. They're often the only way buyers can afford new vehicles, with the average vehicle sale prices surging +28% in five years to approach NZ$85,000. And tariffs will make than much worse. Bloomberg is reporting that in Q2-2025, seven-year vehicle loans represented 21% of all new-vehicle financing. Six-year loans, at one time considered the upper end of the range, are now the most common, accounting for 36%. Some buyers are even now going for eight-year loans.There was a large and well supported two year US Treasury bond auction overnight, resulting in a median yield of 3.60%, down from 3.87% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.North of the border, Canada released some business activity data for July, and both metrics rose and by more than expected. Their wholesale trade was up +1.3% from +0.7% in June, driven by stronger vehicle sales. They manufacturing sales rose +1.8% in July, an improvement from +0.3% in June. Transportation equipment, and the energy sector, provided the key boosts.Across the Pacific in South Korea, you may recall the huge jump in consumer sentiment in July after the peaceful resolution of the attempted executive coup there earlier in the year. The rule of law won. In August, that confidence level dropped sharply as things returned to normal. But to be fair is is still far higher than at any time in the past ten years - despite their ugly treatment by the Trump Administration.In Australia, Australia Post has temporarily partially suspended postal services to the US. All such deliveries now require full customs duties and declarations making the trade impractical for small value items and substantial jeopardy for the shipper. The disruption to such courier services is spreading to most Asian countries now.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, down -3 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3,381/oz, up +US$10 from yesterday.American oil prices have fallen -US$1.50 to US$63.50/bbl with the international Brent price now just under US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.6 USc and little-changed from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 66.3, and also little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$109,747 and down another -2.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that while much of the northern hemisphere is enjoying the last of their summer holidays, Chinese investors have returned in a bullish mood, and in contrast to the now-jaded US equity markets.But first in the US, consumer credit bureau VantageScore is reporting that consumers with the best credit scores (superprime) are showing meaningful signs of credit stress. Among this group late payments have more than doubled in a year. For the group below that ('prime') this metric of delinquency rose almost +50%. (VantageScore is a partnership of Equifax, Experian and TransUnion, and competes with the dominant FICO.)Meanwhile, the widely followed Chicago Fed National Activity Index retreated. This tracking suggested overall American economic growth decreased in July.The Dalla Fed said that in its region factory activity is still expanding but at a slower pace. Although new orders rose (and for the first time in 2025), production activity eased back noticeably. Price and wage pressures rose faster.New house sales in the US stayed at an essentially unchanged pace in July, although marginally softer than in June. Prices dipped, likely because they have a continuing glut of new homes for sale, exceeding nine months' worth at the current sales rate.The latest estimate from the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow live tracking is due tomorrow and is likely to reflect the overall slowdown reported in these other indicators.Across the Pacific, Singapore said it basically doesn't have any inflation. Its July survey came in even lower than was anticipated - even food inflation there is very low.Yesterday, we noticed that the Chinese central bank set its Yuan exchange rate with an outsized shift, now at 7.116 to the USD, a 160 bps strengthening from the prior fix. That makes it its strongest against the greenback since October 2024. It is unclear why this happened because the US dollar index was little-changed in this period. Maybe some of this is related to the recent equities euphoria in the Shanghai stock market - its starting to show the frothy signs that Hong Kong has long displayed.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.28%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time. Wall Street has started its week hesitantly, with the S&P500 down -0.3% in Monday trade. Overnight, European markets opened their week mixed with London up +0.1% but Paris down -1.6%. Yesterday Tokyo started its week up +0.4%. Hong King rose a strong +1.9% and Shanghai mirrored that, up +1.5%. Singapore was up a minor +0.1%. That was matched by the ASX200. The NZX50 rose +0.3% in its Monday trade.The price of gold will start today at US$3,371/oz, little-changed (+US$1) from yesterday.American oil prices have risen +US$1 to US$65/bbl with the international Brent price now just under US$69/bbl. And we should also note that China has imported no natural gas from the US since March and no crude oil since June. But the US keeps importing from China, despite the border tariff taxes, which the US importers seem to be paying.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.6 USc and down -10 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 90.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66.3, little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$112,427 and down -1.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest also at just on +/- 1.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Fed boss Powell gave a hint at Jackson Hole that weaker American labour market conditions may trump inflation risks when they next meet in three weeks - and a rate cut is a live possibility.Before that, Thursday NZT, the market darling Nvidia is set to report its results, and any variation from what is expected to be a stellar result, or any slackening of their outlook indications, could very well have ripple impacts on how investors judge their overall current sky-high valuations across the whole equities landscape. It's a huge immediate risk-point.But this coming week, we will be focusing on the New Zealand employment indicators for July to be released later in the week. And later today, the RBNZ will updated it Dashboard to June, so we can see the market winners (and losers) in the banking sector.Across the ditch, all eyes will be on July's monthly CPI data to be released on Wednesday.China will be releasing its August PMIs this week. India will updated its Q2-GDP, and its July industrial production data. And Canada will also have a Q2-GDP update too.But we shouldn't forget that the northern hemisphere has been getting in the last of its summer vacations recently. This is the final week before the US Labor Day national holiday on September 1, 2025, the traditional end of their summer holiday period and when their financial markets build back up to full strength.They will be coming back after digesting the Fed's latest indicators from Powell's Jackson Hole speech. He noted the core US economy has weathered the "sweeping changes in [US] economic policy" well, but now says "the balance of risks appears to be shifting" - to the negative side. Markets have taken this as a hint a rate cut could come as early as their mid September meeting.The US equity markets roared back to post a record high in Friday. The USD fell. Benchmark bond yields retreated.However, in the euphoria of the possibility of a rate cut markets seem to be ignoring this part: "inflation expectations could move up, dragging actual inflation with them. Inflation has been above our target for more than four years and remains a prominent concern for households and businesses". But they are betting on the 'transitory' inflation story again. Inflation embedded for four years, and juiced by tariffs, will be ignored at their peril.Across the border, Canadian retail sales in June were +6.5% higher than a year ago, the best rise since the pandemic recovery period in 2022. But some of this is just higher prices flowing through from their tariff dispute with the US, and a small correction dip is expected in the July data. And the Canadians are not ignoring the inflation risks of tariffs. To keep a lid on these inflationary effects of that dispute, Canada said it will roll back some of its retaliatory tariffs on the US. The US isn't doing the same, so their consumers will still pay the extra on imports.Across the Pacific, China reported more ugly foreign direct investment data over the weekend. While it didn't actually shrink like it did in April and June, it is running -13.4% below year ago levels, and it is still less than half the July ytd levels of 2022 or 2023, and down -7.3% from last year. The June to July gain this year, while welcome, isn't anything more than a statistical blip in the context of the fall away over the last four years.So it is no surprise that Beijing is reorienting to a focus on internal consumption - something they have a chance of still controlling. The international trade environment isn't moving in their favour and even where they do still get gains, they are not enough to move their needle.There was a surprising dip in Japanese inflation in July. It eased to 3.1% from 3.3% in the previous month, the lowest reading since November 2024. Helping was that electricity prices fell for the first time since April 2024. But food prices jumped +7.6%, the most since February. Again, rice was the big culprit.New data out from the Australian statistics bureau shows their R&D investment grew by +18% to AU$24 bln in 2023-24. The strongest growth was in IT including spending on Artificial Intelligence, which grew by +142% since 2021-2022.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.26%, essentially unchanged from Saturday at this time, down -6 bps for the week.Wall Street roared back in Friday trade with the S&P500 up +1.5% after the Powell hint of a rate cut next month. That means it is able to claim a +0.4% advance for the week which pushed it to a new record high.The price of gold will start today at US$3,370/oz, down -US$1 from Saturday, up +US$36 for the week.American oil prices have held at just under US$64/bbl with the international Brent price now just under US$68/bbl. These levels are more than +US$1 higher than a week agoThe Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.7 USc and unchanged from Saturday at this time. Against the Aussie we also holding at 90.4 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged too at 50.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66.3, little-changed from Saturday but down -60 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$114,366 and down -2.2% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very low at just under +/- 0.6%.And finally, in Australia, AML regulator Austrac has directed Binance to appoint an external auditor after identifying serious concerns with the crypto exchange's anti-money laundering and counter terrorism financing controls.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the financial world is waiting for Fed boss Powell's Jackson Hole scene setting speech.In the meantime, US initial jobless claims held steady last week from the prior week at +195,000. But in fact seasonal factors should have produced a good fall. So seasonally adjusted, they are reporting an unexpected rise. The number of people on these benefits held at 1.97 mln when they usually retreat at this time of year. Analysts are flagging concerns about the lack of progress. A year ago they fell to 1.86 mln, so they are +110,000 higher now than then.US existing home sales rose, and by more than expected in July and only the second month-on-month gain of 2025. They ran at the rate of 4 mln per year, the best level since February. However, the stock of unsold homes swelled (to 19 weeks of supply), and the latest sales came with the average selling price dropping, now at US$422,400.More generally, around their overnight earnings release, the Walmart CEO noted that tariff-tax price pressure is driving up prices on a weekly basis now. However, they reckon they will get a net benefit as shoppers turn to them from others forced into even higher increases.And the Conference Board's index of leading indicators fell in July, extending its 2025 retreat and at a faster pace in the past six months than the prior six months. Keeping the pressure on this index are the retreats in new orders, and weak consumer sentiment.The Philly Fed's factory survey certainly shows the new order problem which turned negative in August. And firms report that inflation is embedding at higher levels for their input costs. There is a sense that this heartland manufacturing region is starting to go backwards again. Those in this survey 'expect growth' in the future, but they have been signaling that for all of 2025 and if that aspect turns, things will possibly feel a bit grim there.But the early August S&P Global/Markit PMIs for the US are not downbeat. On the factory side, they report a good recovery from July. On the services side a slip from a still-expanding base. They also report faster input inflation as they paid the tariff-taxes.The Canadians also reported rising input costs in their PPI release overnight.Japanese business is on the rise. Business activity across Japan's private sector expanded at the fastest rate since February midway through the third quarter, according to the August PMI survey data. The upturn was supported by a fresh increase in factory production alongside a further solid rise in activity at service providers. Total new business also expanded at the quickest rate in six months, though this was driven solely by the service sector. New export business fell at a steeper rate, however.In China, it is becoming clearer that officials are increasingly worried about strained finances at central and local government agencies, and that both firms and employees are suffering from delayed payments. Apparently, the pressures are severe, warranting President's Xi's attention. Special bond issues are underway to juice up the necessary funding.In Europe, the flash PMI reports indicate an improving situation for both manufacturers, and in the service sector. New orders increased for first time in 15 months in August. The factory PMI rose to expansion and its best in more than three years. Its services sector expanded faster, although like everything in Europe the benchmarks are not high compared to the rest of the world.Overall EU consumer sentiment held at modest levels in August, although to be direct, they are still substantially negative and remain lower than their long-run average.In Australia, the S&P Global/Markit August PMIs are quite upbeat. They said Australia's business activity growth accelerated midway through the third quarter, with faster expansions across both the manufacturing and service sectors. This was supported by higher new work inflows, including a renewed expansion in exports. In turn, Australian private sector firms raised their staffing levels at a faster rate to cope with additional workloads. Business sentiment also improved slightly from July.Australian consumer inflation expectations fell to 3.9% in August from 4.7% in July, easing for the second straight month and marking the lowest level since March.And energy regulator AEMO says more wind, solar and storage capacity was added over the past year to the electricity grid in Queensland, NSW and Victoria than in any year before. The risk of blackouts and service disruptions is fading, they say.Globally, container shipping freight rates fell -4% last week from the prior week to be -60% lower than year-ago levels, although year-ago there was extensive stress from tensions in the Red Sea. All the weakness currently is in outbound cargoes from China. Bulk cargo freight rates fell -5% over the past week, but they are still +10% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.33%, up +4 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,337/oz, down -US$10 from yesterday.American oil prices have risen +US$1 to just under US$63.50/bbl with the international Brent price up +US$1 to just over US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.2 USc and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we have held at 90.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 66.2, and up +10 bps helped by a gain against the yen.The bitcoin price starts today at US$114,270 and essentially unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/-1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US Fed thinks inflation risks outweigh concerns about their labour market.But first. in its familiar yoyo pattern, US mortgage applications fell last week by -1.4% from the prior week, but that makes then +10% higher than the same week a year ago. The softness over the past week is all related to softer refinance activity, even though benchmark 30 year mortgage rates changed little.The US Fed released the minutes of its July meeting and that revealed the stances of the two Trump supporters on th nine-member voting panel. "Almost all" officials supported keeping rates unchanged at 4.25%, with those two dissenting in favour of a quarter-point cut to protect a weakening job market. It seems ironic that they should use that reason, because Trump fired the BLS chief for producing results that showed the American labour market weakening. One of the two, Christopher Waller, is considered the front-runner to replace Powell when his term ends. The two dissenters seem isolated in the group at this time.But that has not stopped Trump supporters making up 'fraud' claims against sitting Fed members in an effort to twist the voting panel.These minutes had no impact on financial markets.There was a well-supported US Treasury 20 year bond tender earlier today that delivered a median yield of 4.82%. That was lower than the 4.89% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In Canada, a survey of small business owners turned more positive in July - even though their trade association claimed that 38% of them won't last a year without tariff changes.Across the Pacific, Taiwan turned in another very strong rise in export orders, up +15% in July from a year ago. After the +25% rise in June, this remains impressive but is what analysts have now come to expect.In Indonesia, they had a central bank review of their 5.25% policy interest rate yesterday and no change was anticipated. But in fact they cut by -25 bps to 5.00%, the fifth cut over the past year. They are confident inflation will remain contained and are moving to support "the need to stimulate economic growth in line with the economy's capacity".In the UK, their CPI inflation rate rose to 3.8% in July, its highest since January 2024. Driving the rise were cost increases from transport, holidays, food and fuel. These were offset by slower increases in rents (even if they are still rising fast). They have their own twist on the CPI called the CPIH which they emphasise, which adds in owner-occupier housing costs, and that rose 4.2%. That draws in imputed rents, stamp duties, and the cost of maintenance improvements. Either way, they have a sharpish inflation problem.In Australia, AUSTRAC said real estate agents are one of the key to tackling scams, drug trafficking and organised crime. Along with banks and lawyers, real estate agents are going to get more focus on fighting money laundering.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.29%, down -1 bp from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,347/oz, up +US$31 from yesterday.American oil prices have stabilised at just over US$62.50/bbl with the international Brent price up +US$1 to just over US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.3 USc and down -70 bps from yesterday following the dovish RBNZ MPS. Against the Aussie we have fallen -80 bps to 90.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -60 bps at 50 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66.1, and down -80 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$114,270 and up +0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-0.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news commodity prices are taking a hit in global markets today as overall economic prospects are under scrutiny in both the US and China. And Wall Street is following them down, in their case led by tech firms.Prices for both hard and soft commodities are in retreat today, including oil, natural gas, steel, copper, aluminium, wheat, and soybeans. Even bitcoin is falling, down -8.5% over the past week when it hit a recent high note. But not everything.Today's full dairy auction revealed better demand from a wider range of markets than was expected so the declines anticipated were much less, in fact just -0.3% overall. Good buying of WMP and not only from China saw this rise slightly and that limited any overall downside. But there were lower prices for cheese, butter and SMP - lower, but about what was expected for these categories.In the US, housing starts rose a bit more than expected. But the gain was accentuated because July 2024 was unusually weak and that was because for some reason the 2024 bump came in August. Still it was encouraging because analysts had expected a small retreat in July. Still, the general level remains well below the general levels over the prior years. And new building permits were unusually low in July and are now running at their lowest level since June 2020. So the future isn't that bright in this sector.In the rural sector, American farmers are particularly worried about how the Trump Administration is upending their industry, and questions about survivability are arising. Many apparently face bankruptcy.Canadian CPI inflation fell, and by a bit more than expected. It came in at 1.9% in June in a small blip up. It was expected to slip back to a 1.8% rate but in fact came in at 1.7%, the same level it was in April and May. Fuel prices led the decline, but rents rose +3.0% and grocery prices were up +3.4% This will make it tricky for their central bank when they next meet on September 17.Across the Pacific, the top leaders in China have been on vacation and are now starting to return to active front-line duty.Meanwhile, Malaysian exports turned out to be much stronger in July than anticipated. They rose +6.8% in July from the same month a year ago, defying market expectations of a -5% drop. They also revised their June result to be a smaller dip than first reported. Malaysia imports were expected to fall sharply, but in fact held their own.In Australia, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index surged 5.7% in August to its highest since February 2022, after a small rise in July. All components rose: family finances compared to a year ago rose +6.2%, while expectations for the next 12 months climbed +5.4%. Views on the economy improved, with the 12-month outlook up +7.6% and the 5-year outlook rose +5.4%, both above historical norms. The time to buy a major household item index gained +4.2%, while unemployment expectations fell -2.4%, still below the long-run level of 129. Their long spell of consumer pessimism may be ending, though sustaining momentum could require more easing. This survey underscores why the second-term Albanese government is riding ever higher in their polls, and the right-wing opposition parties are in disarray.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.30%, down -4 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,316/oz, down -US$17 from yesterday.American oil prices have fallen -US$1 to be just under US$62.50/bbl with the international Brent price over US$65.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 59 USc and down -20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we have firmed +20 bps to 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 50.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66.9, and down -10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$113,512 and down -2.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/-1.5%.Join us from 2pm NZT this afternoon for full overage of the RBNZ OCR decision and the following press conference.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that attention will now turn to the annual Fed meeting in Jackson Hole, WO. This year Fed boss Powell is not only trying to balance US monetary policy settings between rising inflation pressures and a basically stable (and good) labour market, he also has to contend with a unstable fiscal policies and political pressure, with two and soon to be three voting members who want to appease the "low rate" President. He is earning his keep at present, and this summer forum will be a way for him to make his case.Special attention will be on his comments about rate cut prospects, something markets have mostly priced in for the September 18 meetings. Currently, analysts expect Powell to be coy about his signals for a rate cut.But on the current data front in the US, their housebuilding industry remains quite glum. The NAHB index of sentiment in the sector is near a record low, only worse during one month in the pandemic. And the July retreat was not expected. Builder sentiment has now been in negative territory for 16 consecutive months and their key problem is costs, induced recently by tariff taxes, and keeping new housing basically unaffordable for new buyers.But north of the border, its quite a different situation. Canadian housing starts hit a three year high in July, up +3.7% from June which was also a very strong month. The Canadians are tackling their housing affordability issue with a strong push for more supply. The key gains are with multi-unit housing in Montreal and the Prairie Provinces.It is not something we have reported on before, but India is now releasing monthly unemployment data. Previously it was quarterly and the latest release shows this key metric at 4.2% in July, which is a record low since records started in 1995. Nothing like an expanding economy to pull down the jobless rates.Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) fell -4.6% year-on-year in July, reversing a downwardly revised +12.9% surge in June and establishing a yoyo pattern. This marked the third decline so far this year and the steepest contraction since October 2024, due to a fall in non-electronic exports, especially to the US (-48%) but also China -12%). Perhaps more worrying, near neighbours Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia all bought significantly less in July.In China, the $2 bln trade in dairy products from the EU to China is under investigation by political authorities as part of pressures China is exerting as countermeasures for EU restrictions on China. Now the Chinese are drawing out the pressure with another extension to the probe, due to "complexity" in the case.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.34%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,333/oz, essentially unchanged from yesterday.American oil prices have firmed slightly to be just under US$63.50/bbl with the international Brent price under US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 59.2 USc and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we have firmed +20 bps to 91.2 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +20 bps at 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67, and up +20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$116,576 and down -1.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/-1.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news consumer hesitations are showing up the world's largest economies.But first, our week ahead will be dominated by Wednesday's RBNZ OCR rate review, one that is widely expected, by both analysts and financial markets, to deliver a -25 bps cut. That will flow though to floating mortgage and savings rates, but it is far less clear it will affect fixed home loan rates given we have had a full range of cuts last week.In Australia this week it will be all about consumer inflation expectations and consumer sentiment.Elsewhere, in the shadow of northern hemisphere vacations, Canada and Japan will release updated CPI data, and there will be a focus on the US Fed, who with guests, will be huddling in Jackson Hole, WY, again. This time the comments from the two Trump-aligned board members will no doubt hog the limelight.All the while, PMI releases will ground us in the real economy.And in the real economy, Chinese retail sales rose +3.7% in July from a year ago, slowing from a +4.8% expansion in June. Markets were expecting a +4.6% gain in July, so this is a disappointment. This latest result is their weakest growth since December 2024.Meanwhile, China's industrial production expanded by +5.7% in July from a year ago, slowing from June's three-month high of +6.8%. Expectations were for a 5.9% gain so this miss is small. But it is the softest increase in industrial production since last November. That comes after capacity curbs caused by unusually high temperatures and heavy rainfall in some regions.The more important metric of Chinese electricity production saw it rise +3.1% in July from a year ago, a faster expansion than in June. Hydro power was down -9.8% on the same basis, coal power up +4.3%, and nuclear power up +8.3%. The smaller renewals sector's rise was much faster than all of these.And China's new home prices in the 70 major reference cities dropped by -2.8% in July from a year ago, easing from a -3.2% decline in the previous month. It was the 25th consecutive month of contraction, the softest pace since March 2024. Only five of those 70 cities had any increase, and those were all marginal at best. But then again, so were the dips. For resales, there were no cities showing any year-on-year gains and only one (Taiyuan, in Shanxi province) with a monthly gain.Overall, it's a picture of a slightly slowing Chinese economy across all sectors and that will tell Beijing that its stimulus efforts so far are insufficient to keep up with the forces that are dragging it slower. But Beijing is calling the economy 'steady'.And staying in Asia, Malaysia's economy expanded by +4.4% year-on-year in the June quarter, matching the pace in Q1 and slightly below the initial estimate of +4.5%.In the US economy, retail sales rose +0.5% in July from June, as expected and following an upwardly revised 0.9% rise in June. This was largely due to car buying. They are up +3.9% from a year ago but that gain has been falling from the recent +5.1% peak in March. Although tariff-taxes account for most of the gain, overall there is a small real gain here. However without cars, this would look quite negative.In the New York region, they saw a modest rise in business activity in their factories in July based on rising new orders.And that is supported by national industrial output data. While American industrial production edged down -0.1% in July, missing forecasts of a flat reading and following an upwardly revised +0.4% rise in June, the decline was only because the mining sector was weak. Factory output, which makes up about 78% of total industrial production, edged up +0.1% in July, after increasing +0.3% in June. From year-ago levels it is up +1.4%, similar to most of 2025.Not so positive is American consumer sentiment and they don't like what they see ahead. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment August survey fell sharply from July and well below what was expected. It was the first fall in four months, mainly due to growing inflation concerns and sharply worse buying conditions for durable goods. Those surveyed anticipate worsening inflation and unemployment ahead. Overall this survey is more than -13% worse than year ago levels.And in Europe, data released over the weekend shows that Ireland's exports to the US dropped by almost a quarter in June compared to a year ago. Tariffs got the blame. (But they were able to reorient about half of that drop to the UK.)More globally, we should note that international shipping costs are starting to be roiled by the new Trump rule of tariff-extras/extra port fees for Chinese-made ships that dock there that comes into effect in five weeks. That will raise freight costs for Americans, and with extra capacity in other trades, probably bringing lower costs elsewhere.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.33%, up +1 bp from Saturday at this time, up +4 bps for the week.The price of gold will start today at US$3,334/oz, unchanged from Saturday, but down -US$61 for the week.American oil prices have firmed slightly to be just over US$63/bbl with the international Brent price over US$66/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just over 59.2 USc and unchanged from Saturday. But it is down -40 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we have dipped -10 bps to 91 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 50.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 66.8, down -10 bps from Saturday and down -½c for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,422 and down -0.3% from this time yesterday. But up +0.5% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-1.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news tariff-costs seem to be having much more impact on US prices than on global trade.But first, US initial jobless claims rose slightly last week to 199,000 but that was slightly lower than seasonal factors would have accounted for. There are now just over 2 mln people on these benefits, +100,000 more than at the same time last year.However, rising much more were producer prices. They are up +3.3% in July from a year ago, a jump from June's +2.4% and much higher than the expected +2.5%. This ends a period where these costs eased since February with a notable reversal. The month-on-month rise was outsized and we make that the largest non-pandemic jump since 2012. This data is having traders re-think their bets on the September 18 US Fed rate review. Currently they expect a -25 bps cut, despite White House pressures. They have two more -25 bps cuts priced in through to january 2026, so maybe some of those could get reassessed. Today's PPI data may signal the tariff-induced inflation is only just starting.In China, they are wrestling - endlessly it seems - with how to staunch the property development sector's bleeding. The latest idea is that Beijing's SOEs but up the unsold housing overhang.India's exports rose in July, but their imports jumped much more so their trade deficit worsened and is much more negative than it was a year ago for the same month.Meanwhile, S&P have upgraded the Indian sovereign credit rating to 'BBB' from 'BBB-' and changed the outlook to stable from positive. It said the upgrade was based on economic resilience and sustained fiscal consolidation. They noted the strong growth momentum, said monetary policy was credible, and added that the impact of Trump's tariffs should be manageableIn Australia, one of their largest superannuation funds failed to tell regulator ASIC about investigations into serious member services issues, including incorrect insurance premium refunds for dead members. This is part of what ASIC is alleging in an Australian Federal Court suit launched yesterday.And staying in Australia, their jobless rate eased to 4.2% in July, down from the four year high of 4.3% in June. The decline was driven by a drop of 10,200 in the number of unemployed, bringing the total to 649,600. Meanwhile, employment rose by +24,500 to a record high of 14.6 mln following a downwardly revised gain of +1,000 in June. Full-time employment rose by +60,500 while part-time positions fell by -35,900. Female participation hit a record high of 63.5%.Global container freight rates fell in a broad shift lower to be down -3% last week from the prior week and down -59% from year ago levels. Those year ago levels were an unusually high benchmark due to Red Sea security factors back then. Bulk freight rates were little-changed over the past week, but are +20% above year ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.28%, up +5 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3,335/oz, down -US$17 from yesterday.American oil prices have risen +US$1.50 to be just under US$64/bbl with the international Brent price up a bit less at US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 59.1 USc and down -60 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 66.9, down -40 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,741 and down -3.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/-2.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of a rare drop in bank lending in China from weak demand.But first up today, we need to report that "due to a technical issue", yesterday's GDT Pulse Auction was cancelled prior to its completion.Meanwhile in the US, and boosted by a very sharp surge in refinance activity, mortgage applications were up more than +10% last week from the week earlier. Refi clients too advantage of a small -10 bps dip in the benchmark interest rate. But applications to finance a new home purchase actually fell last week from the prior week. Still, that is +16% higher than year-ago levels.The Trump Administration is increasingly worried about the outlook for their economy. Tariff costs are choking off expansion. We will get a GDPNow update of economic activity later this week, but it is likely to be quite soft. Now Treasury Secretary Bessent is calling for a -150 bps rate cut by the Fed to counter the expected decline, and telling them to ignore the building inflation.In Japan, machine tool orders rose +3.6% in July driven by stronger export orders.In China, there has been an unexpected surprise in the release of their bank lending data for July released overnight. It actually fell for the first time in more than twenty years. It fell -¥50 bln in July from the prior month. A +¥300 bln increase was expected. July is often a shadow month after the quarter end, but actual declines are almost unheard of in the modern era. Overall social funding rose, but that is bolstered ny economic support measures. That commercial firms are borrowing less is undoubtedly not a trend Beijing wants to see.The slowdown domestically, and severe overcapacity has seen Chinese steel products dumped in international markets. More countries like Japan and South Korea are considering anti-dumping actions against Chinese steel, while India has several probes underway. Chile has imposed temporary anti-dumping tariffs to protect its steel industry. These moves come after the US and Canada imposed their restrictions. These actions against Chinese steel will no doubt get more strident unless China removes a meaningful proportion of its overcapacity.That makes Australia vulnerable.Australia imports a significant amount of steel from China (more than AU$4 bln/year), with structural steel being a major category. And this is rising and a threat to local steel mills. Australia is in a tough spot dealing with China on the issue because their iron ore exports are the main Australian advantage (about AU$100 bls/year). And quality is another advantage of local steel products. There are rising concerns about the quality and compliance with Australian standards of some imported Chinese steel products.New owner-occupier loan values in Australia were up +7.2% in June from the same quarter in 2024. But the number of new loans was up only +0.2% on the same basis. This reflects the frothy housing markets in many state capital cities. The biggest value increases were for owner-occupiers who weren't first home buyers with these loan values up +9.8%. Volumes for that group were up+1.0%. First home buyers in Australia are the weakest borrowers, largely shut out of their housing markets.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.24%, down -5 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,353/oz, up +US$6 from yesterday.American oil prices have fallen another -US$1 to be just under US$62.50/bbl with the international Brent price now at US$65.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 59.7 USc and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are also up +10 bps at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.3, up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price started today at US$121,559 and up +1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/-1.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news inflation is staying high in the US but retreating in India and Australia.The US CPI inflation rate remained at 2.7% in July, the same as in June and below forecasts of 2.8%. Still it is worth noting that June's level caused Trump to fire the bearer of that news. But the level has been held anyway. Food prices also were steady at +2.9%. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, accelerated to a five-month high of 3.1%, compared to 2.9% in June and above forecasts of 3%. The monthly core CPI went up +0.3% as expected, its sharpest rise in six months.Apparently, importers were still absorbing most of the border tariff taxes.The new head of the agency responsible for this data (a Heritage Foundation official) has suggested they stop publishing monthly jobs data, especially for jobs, until "errors can be corrected". (Code for, what the White House wants.)What today's inflation data means for a Fed rate cut is still uncertain - for some. Equity markets are betting this "as expected" result will allow one and their bets are now 90% certain a cut will come on September 18 (NZT). Bond markets are a bit more sceptical. Currency markets remain bearish on the USD.Record expected corn production in the US, and closing international appetites for politicised trade uncertainties brought a swift fall in corn prices. The same USDA WASDE report says beef prices are rising in lower tariff-induced imports from Brazil and lower domestic production. US milk prices are little-changed but they expect to import more SMP.The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose in July from June but it still not back to levels of earlier in the year. This latest rise is all about current outcomes rather than future conditions. The uncertainty subcategory was still high and rising.The US government posted a -US$291 bln budget deficit in July, despite a +US$21 bln boost in border tariff collections from importers, as spending outpaced revenues. The shortfall was US$47 bln larger than a year earlier, with receipts rising +2% to US$338 bln but outlays jumping +10% to a record US$630 bln for the month. The unexpected worsening seems to have been ignored by equity markets who 'liked' the inflation result.But the bond market is bracing for the impact of an additional US$500 bln in Treasury Bond issuance over the next six months. Benchmark yields rose.In Canada, a sharper than expected fall in Vancouver multi-unit house building permits, along with a sharper than expected fall in Toronto commercial building, has seen the Canadian building permit levels in June retreat much more sharply than expected. This retreat comes after an unusually strong gain in May however.In India, CPI inflation is retreating rapidly now, coming in in July at only 1.6% fron a year ago. In June it rose 2.1%. The July level is almost as low as the all-time low of 1.5% in June eight years ago. In the latest data, food prices deflated -1.8% and this was by far the major reason for the overall easing. The result is now well below the RBI inflation tolerance band of 2-6% so official rate cutting may come into play. But arguing against that is the record weakness on the Indian rupee.In Germany, ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment fell back for the first time in four months, mainly on the disappointing outcomes in the EU-US tariff 'negotiations'. But overall sentiment remain relatively high there in a long term perspective.In Australia, and in a unanimous decision, the nine member Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board has cut its cash rate target by -25 bps to 3.60%, saying a further easing of monetary policy is appropriate after a pause at its last review in July. Most banks announced they would pass it on in full to home loan borrowers. Lower inflation tracks are behind the official rate cut.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.29%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3,347/oz, down -US$7 from yesterday.American oil prices have softened -50 USc to be just under US$63.50/bbl with the international Brent price now at US$66/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 59.6 USc and up +20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 91.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.2, unchanged from yesterday.The bitcoin price started today at US$119*,329 and down -0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/-0.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US is deploying new shakedown tactics on its exporters to give some favoured tech companies tariff and national security export relief - if they pay.However first, China's vehicle sales were up almost 15% in July from a year ago, following a nearly +14% rise in June. That means they sold 2.6 mln units in July. The sales pace is running far higher in 2025 than the record pace in 2024, but the really large sales months don't come until late in the second half of the year. Sales of new energy vehicles surged 27% year-on-year to more than 1.25 mln units in July, accounting for nearly half of all new car sales and marking the fifth consecutive monthly increase.Hong Kong listed Chinese property developer, China South City Holdings, has been suspended after a Hong Kong court ordered its winding up. That ends a years-long process of attempting to survive through reorganisation and emphasises how tough the Chinese property development market is still.In India, there are reports their central bank is in the markets supporting the falling rupee. So far they have spent US$5 bln on the operation to no obvious impact, although it may have helped slow the devaluation.In the US, the Federal Government is finding new ways to tax. First it was tariffs (import taxes), now it is export taxes. It is extracting 15% from chip sales, starting with exports to China. These shakedown of corporate America come with waiving tariffs or national security export restrictions, giving the company advantages over its rivals. Very Soprano. It is a habit sure to spread, ushering in a period of hyper crony-capitalism - one that may be indistinguishable from capitalism-with-Chinese-characteristics. The Chinese at least are trying to wean themselves off the habit, because it led them nowhere.Tomorrow, the US will release its CPI data. And after the firing of its agency head last month because Trump didn't like the result, this will draw special scrutiny, especially as tariff costs are increasingly being passed on. The key reaction to watch will be how TIPS bonds are prices (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities). The CPI rate is the basis for these yields and it they are going to be artificially interfered with, investors may sell down this US$2.1 tln bond market corner. If that happens, we will all notice. Markets expect the 2.7% CPI rate in June (the one Trump didn't like) to rise to 2.8%, and the core rate to hit 3% - for the first time in five months and calling an end to the disinflation cycle and the start of re-inflation.Later today we get the RBA's latest rate decision. It almost certainly will announce a cut of -25 bps to 3.60%. And before that the wide-watched NAB business sentiment survey will be released. It isn't expected to show much change from the modestly positive readings.And as important as today's announcements will be, don't forget tomorrow CBA will release its annual 2025 results to June. And they are widely expected to be a record exceeding AU$10 bln. It is ranked in the mid 40s on an assets basis, but it is one of the worlds most profitable.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.26%, down -2 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3,354/oz, down -US$44 from yesterday.American oil prices have firmed +50 USc to be just under US$64/bbl with the international Brent price now at US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at 59.3 USc and down -20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are also down -20 bps at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.2, down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price started today at US$119,552 and up +0.8% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/-1.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news geopolitics will suck up all the headlines this week, but we will focus on how the world's economies are faring.This coming week will have a focus on Australia, and the RBA's Tuesday cash rate target review. "Everyone" expects them to cut by -25 bps to 3.60% - the more so because they skipped the expected cut at their July 9 review. There will be interest in the NAB business sentiment report this week tooIn the US, the economic focus will be on CPI, PPI, retail sales and industrial production data. Market analysts aren't expecting to see much expansion and are expecting to see higher inflation. There will also be another consumer sentiment survey released this week too.In Europe it will be all about GDP and sentiment updates. In Japan, we get to learn their Q2 GDP result. In India the focus will be on inflation updates.In China there will be some big data released including for industrial production, retail sales, and new bank lending.Over the weekend China released its July CPI data. It rose +0.4% from June, to be unchanged from a year ago. They are being suppressed by Beijing's subsidy programs. Food prices fell marginally in the month to be -1.0% lower than a year ago. Beef prices however rose +3.6% on that annual basis, sheepmeat prices fell -1.4%, and milk was down -1.3%.Meanwhile overall producer prices deflated quicker, down -3.6% from a year ago. Producer purchase prices were down -4.5%, taking it to almost three years of continuous monthly declines. That's serious deflation.More globally, the July world food price index inched higher, but that masks record higher prices for meat proteins. And those were driven by beef and sheep prices. Dairy prices eased back from June but only slightly and they remain very near record levels.Canada released its July labour market report over the weekend showing 1.6 mln people unemployed for a jobless rate of 6.9%. That's high even if it is stable, and the number of people employed fell by -40,800, with a drop of -51,000 in full-time jobs and a rise of +10,000 in part-time jobs. The decline was mostly among 15-24 year olds. Markets had expected overall employment to rise by +13,000.In Japan, June data for household spending rose +1.3% from the same month a year ago, down sharply from a +4.7% increase in May. Forecasts were for a +2.6% rise. Households were worried about the impact of US tariffs and persistent inflation on consumer activity. On a monthly basis, spending plunged -5.2% in June from May, reversing May's +4.6% rise and undershooting expectations of a -3% correction.And staying with Japan, they agreed with the US on a 15% "reciprocal" tariff. But Trump issued an executive order to charge 25% in a pique of retribution for slights no-one can quite understand. The Japanese have called them out on it, insisting they honour the negotiated deal. Now Bessent and Lutnick have agreed to not only correct the "administrative mistake" but refund the capricious tariff charges. The Japanese are back with the same deal as the EU has.Taiwan's export performance continues to astound. Exports from the island nation surged +42% in July from a year ago to a record US$56.7 bln, following the +34% increase in June. They were expecting 'only' a +29% rise on this basis. by any measure this strength is quite remarkable. It is all built on electronics. Taiwanese imports were up +21% on the same basis.In the US the appointment of Stephen Miran to fill a temporary vacancy as a board member of the US Federal Reserve adds in a protectionist sceptic to the voting mix. He is no fan of central bank independence. But oddly he has railed against the 'revolving door' of its members moving between Whitehouse/Treasury positions and the Fed governorships. He has now become exhibit A.An global reinsurer SwissRe says 2025 is shaping up to incur weather and climate losses exceeding US$150 bln, after a record $80 bln in the first half. That would make it its costliest year since 2011 (when the NZ and Japanese earthquakes occurred), but by far the costliest for just climate impacts.We should also note an AFR report that French dairy giant Lactalis, is the leading bidder for Fonterra's Mainland business after being granted exclusivity to negotiate for a buyout. They got the nod with a price rumoured to be something less than $4 bln.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.28%, down -1 bp from Saturday and up +6 bps for the week.The price of gold will start today at US$3,398/oz, up US$3 from Saturday. But that has built to a +US$51 gain for the week, or up +1.5%. The uncertainties swirling around the new US tariff ruling are flowing through the New York gold price. Meanwhile the White House called the news 'misinformation' even though their agency had published to tariff ruling.American oil prices have slipped back again, down -50 USc to be just under US$63.50/bbl with the international Brent price down at just over US$66/bbl. These are more than -US$3.50 lower than week-ago levels.The Kiwi dollar is at 59.5 USc and down -10 bps from Saturday, up +½c from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.3, unchanged from Saturday and up +20 bps from this time last week.The bitcoin price started today at US$118,561 and up +1.5% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with we are ending the week with Wall Street not finding much to like about future trade prospects, especially as policy shifts seem to be highly chaotic and involve personal retributions.US initial jobless claims rose last week to +195,000 when seasonal factors indicated it would fall. There are now just over 2 mln people claiming these benefits. This time last year there was just over 1.9 mln, a rise of +99,000.American consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 3.1% in July from 3% in June. This was held back only because of the widespread perception that petrol prices would fall. The median year-ahead expected change in food prices remained unchanged at 5.5%. Looking further ahead inflation expectations in fives rose to 2.9% from 2.6%.Meanwhile Q2 American labour productivity improved in data released today. It rose by 2.4% in the quarter following a revised -1.8% drop in the prior period. Analysts expected a +2% increase. Output increased by 3.7% (vs -0.6% in Q1) and hours worked increased by 1.3% (vs 1.2%).The US agricultural sector used to be a powerhouse export driver. But no more. Data released yesterday shows it has turned into a net importer, a trend that started in 2018 in the first Trump presidency. The first half of 2025 has now recorded its largest deficit on record, mainly on stuttering exports.Meanwhile, American consumer credit rose in June but only modestly. Total consumer credit rose by just +US$7.4 bln in the month, up from a +US$5.1 bln in May. These are minor changes and don't indicate any impending credit stress.Across the Atlantic in a tighter than expected vote, the Bank of England cut its policy rate by -25 bps to 4.0%. They have inflation running at 3.6% with a target of 2%. Five of the nine voting members voted for the cut, four wanted no-change. This was much closer than the 7:2 vote expected.In China, they are not only subsidising trade-in programs to help juice their domestic economy, now they are subsidising interest rates on personal loans. Consumer credit has not been traditionally popular in China, but young people are signing up much more freely. It is a sector that may grow to hold financial stability risks.Standard & Poor's have affirmed China's sovereign credit rating at A+ Stable. China's government gets a AAA rating from its own domestic ratings agencies, but Beijing was pleased anyway with the S&P result.Container freight rates fell -3% last week from the week before to be -58% lower than year-ago levels, although to be fair those were an unusual peak. Outbound from China was again the main weakness although outbound from the US is now showing up as a weakening trade too - and that starts with very low rates anyway. Bulk cargo rates were essentially unchanged over the past week and are now +18% higher than a year ago.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, up +3 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,391/oz, up US$17 from yesterday.American oil prices have slipped back again, down another -US$1 to just on US$64/bbl with the international Brent price down at just over US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at 59.5 USc and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 91.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.3, up +20 bps.The bitcoin price started today at US$116,442 and up +0.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/-1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news in search of short-term riches, the Cook Islands is establishing itself as a haven base for deep sea mining, it be used by both great powers.But first, American mortgage applications rose last week with a modest +3.1% gain from the prior week attributed to a small fall in benchmark mortgage interest rates. It was the stronger +5% refinance activity that drove the modest gain rather than new home purchases.Those benchmark rates may keep falling. There was slightly softer demand for the latest overnight US Treasury 10yr Note auction, but the resulting median yield came in at 4.20%, down from 4.31% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. However the yield is up on more recent levels.Separately, the NY Fed monitoring of global supply chain pressure eased again in July.In Canada, they are seeing residential real estate markets operating like we see here. For example Toronto sales transactions are rising (+13% in July from a year ago), but prices falling (-5.4% on the same basis).The Reserve Bank of India kept its key policy rate at 5.50% during its August meeting, now holding a neutral stance, following a larger-than-expected -50 bps decrease in June. There were no surprises here and the rate remains at its lowest level since August 2022. Easing inflation and the recent US tariff challenges were key considerations.Meanwhile, the US has doubled its tariffs on India to 50% as 'punishment' for buying Russian oil. Interestingly it has boosted Modi's standing at home in India and brought bi-partisan support for him in resisting the US.In China, they have brought in a ¥3,600 yuan (NZ$845) per year child care subsidy for under threes, designed to boost household consumption and ease pressure on family budgets. Encouraging childbirth is probably the core motivation for this subsidy. It is just another is a broadening range of consumer subsidies China is rolling out to support its economy and build domestic demand.EU retail sales volumes impressed in an overnight data release for June. They were up +3.1% on a volume basis, the best increase since September 2024. German gains were particularly strong, up +4.8% on the same volume basis.But new German factory orders again disappointed in June, down -1.0% in volume terms. Although this was twisted by some lumpy 'large' orders. Excluding those, the change is a gain of +0.5% in volume terms. (Large-scale items include aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles).Australia said living costs rose for all type of households in June. Over the past year, all LCIs rose between +1.7% and +3.1%, slowing from annual rises of between +2.4% and +3.5% to the March 2025 quarter. In the South Pacific, the Cook Islands is becoming a renegade state. Its deal with China allows the Chinese to use it as a base for deep sea mining. Now the US is keen to use it in the same way. These great powers see “one of the most promising regions for deep-sea mineral deposits.” These nations are keen to plunder as far away from themselves as possible.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.22%, up +2 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,374/oz, down -US$5 from yesterday.American oil prices have slipped back again, down another -50 USc to just under US$65/bbl with the international Brent price holding at just over US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at 59.4 USc and up +40 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.1, up +20 bps.The bitcoin price started today at US$115,465 and up +1.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the equity markets and the bond markets are flashing quite different signals, and equity markets seem quite out of step with the operating economic data. When these vary, there is usually a reckoning, and that usually (but not always) results in an equity correction.But first up today, the overnight dairy auction brought results similar to what the derivatives market expected, maybe slightly better because of show early season strength in WMP demand and prices. Volumes sold were the highest since October 2024. And helping the tone was the fall in the NZD which boosted the rise in local currency. Overall the event ended up +0.7% in USD and up +1.5% in NZD. The industry will be satisfied the new season is off to a good start.On the butter demand front, there was a noted fall off in demand at these prices - except frim China and Middle East buyers. There is enough there to keep prices elevated, although to be fair the butter price did ease +3.8% at this event.Meanwhile, the widely watched American ISM services PMI unexpectedly fell in July 2025 from June, and the result was lower than expected. The services sector is now nearly stagnant, with seasonal and weather factors having a negative impact on business. A slowdown was most evident in the fall in new orders - activity is still operating faster than new orders are arriving so that is not great for the future. Not slowing are price increases, so all the signs of stagflation here. However, the internationally-benchmarked S&P Global/Markit version told a more upbeat story.US exports fell in June from May but the fall was only minor, and from a year ago there were up +3.3%. US imports fell more sharply in the month to be -1.4% below year-ago levels. But that only results in their trade deficit being back to mif 2024 levels. Or 2023 levels. The needle has moved very little.But the RCM/TIPP sentiment survey rose in July although the move was minor. It mirrored the month's equity markets and this index also hit a 4 year high.American household debt rose by +US$185 bln in the June quarter to a new record high of US$18.4 tln. That is now 60.6% of GDP. The flow of household debt into serious delinquency was mixed across debt types, with credit card and car loans holding steady, student loans continuing to rise, and mortgages edging up slightly.In India, their services PMI tells a booming story. International orders and overall sales rose sharply from the fastest increase in business activity for 11 months. However, price pressures re-accelerated, so this boom comes with inflation consequences. It's a report in sharp contrast to the lackluster American equivalents. "Someone" is quite envious of their success and is threatening sharply higher tariffs.Meanwhile Trump is signaling that their endless 'truce' with China will get another extension.And China delivered a positive data surprise yesterday, with the private Caixin services PMI rising and by more than expected. (Remember the official NBS services PMI eased lower.) The Caixin China General Services PMI rose in July from June's nine-month low with the fastest expansion in the services sector since May 2024, and with new business growing at the strongest pace in a year.That is in contrast to the EU services PMI which remains weak, although it is still expanding.Quarterly June data out today in Australia shows household spending rose at a good rate, up +5.1% from the same month a year ago - and the rate it rose from March was good too. Discretionary spending was strong. Western Australia was the only jurisdiction where spending fell. On a volume basis (after inflation's impact), it is up +0.7%.Join us at 10:45am for the New Zealand labour market report for June, although it might just confirm the tough operating environment we are in.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.20%, up +1 bp from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,379/oz, up +US$7 from yesterday.American oil prices have slipped back again, down another -US$1 to just under US$65.50/bbl with the international Brent price just over US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at 59 USc and little-changed from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 66.9, down -10 bps.The bitcoin price started today at US$113,625 and down -1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/-1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news tough economic news keeps coming, even during this lazy August vacation period in the northern hemisphere.First, in the US factory orders were expected to retreat in June, consistent with the labour market and PMI signals - and they did. They were down -4.8% from May, although they are still up +6.6% from a year ago. The June falls were largely driven by a -22% plunge in transportation equipment orders. This same data confirmed the earlier durable goods order decrease in June of -9.4%.We are awaiting important services PMIs for July and they are expected to be much better than those for their factory sector.American economic uncertainty is now well embedded in consumer behaviour. Some brands are really suffering, and causing large writedowns.Meanwhile, American vehicle sales rose in July to an annualised rate of 16.4 mln, slightly more than expected because they got a boost ahead of expected price increases from the August 1 tariff-taxes. But the boost was relatively minor, just +3.6% ahead of the same level in July 2024.In China, parts of the country are battling heavier-than-usual rainfall. And that includes Beijing itself, a city of 22 mln. Dozens of people have died in flooding already. They are expecting 200 mm of rain to fall over the next 24 hours, on top of what they have had which created their emergency. Beijing's normal annual rainfall is 600 mm.In Australia, the Melbourne Institute's inflation gauge survey result brought an unwelcome surprise. It surged +0.9% in July, the steepest rise since December 2023 and a sharp rebound from June's modest +0.1% increase. The RBA is unlikely to be impressed because even if inflation is within range it seems to be testing the upper end of that range and a rate cut could well push it up out-of-range. Still, financial markets are pricing in a full -25 bps cut for Tuesday, August 12 when the RBA next meets. And they have priced in two more by the end of 2025. At this time, given inflation is proving harder to lick, that seems unlikely. And in turn there could be many disappointed market traders - and mortgage holders - as the year unfolds.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.19%, down -3 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,372/oz, up +US$10 from yesterday.American oil prices have slipped back again, down -US$1 to just under US$66.50/bbl with the international Brent price just over US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at 59 USc and down -20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -10 bps at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67, down -10 bps as well.The bitcoin price started today at US$115,217 and up +0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low again at just under +/-0.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news US President Trump is "making progress" is bending independent agencies (BLS, the US Fed) to respond to what is best for him, rather than the US economy.But the week ahead will all be focused locally on Wednesdays Household Labour Force survey results for July. Our jobless rate is expected to rise to 5.3% from 5.1% in June (and May). That would make it its highest since 2016 and exceeding anything we had in the pandemic period.Elsewhere the week will feature a raft of PMI and factory order releases. Plus, China will release key trade and inflation data.But the big economic driver for the week will be market reactions to Trump's tariff-war moves and his drive to bend both the Fed and the economic data agencies in the US to show fealty to him and avoid any negative reports. On Friday they sensed all this isn't good for the US economy and turned sharply risk averse even though corporate earnings reports have stayed positive.And that was because of Trump's response to official data he didn't like. He moved to fire the head of the data agency who reported it.Then a voting Fed official resigned, giving him a chance to twist more independence out of this crucial institution.The release of the July US labour market report showed the headline jobs gain was only +73,000 when +110,000 was expected. But worse, the June data was revised sharply lower to just +14,000 from the original +147,000. Their jobless rate edged higher to 4.2%. The number of people unemployed for at least 27 weeks has topped 1.8 mln now, the highest since the pandemic. Wage growth for the low-paid was unusually weak. This is a huge miss and there were sharp financial market reactions.Those are the seasonally adjusted numbers. The actual numbers are much worse, down -1,066,000 in July from June. To be fair much of that actual shrinkage is seasonal, but at 159.3 mln people employed, that is lower than in November 2024 when Trump won office.But with this July stumble in their labour market, it will be no surprise to know that the ISM factory PMI shows the same sharp retreat. In June this PMI was contracting with a 49.0 index level. It was expected to improve to a smaller contraction of 49.5. (An index level of 50 is the fulcrum between expansion and contraction.) But it went the other way, deepening its contraction to 48.0. Driving the retreat were new orders and order backlogs contracting, along with input costs increasing and exports falling. Overall, this is reporting their factory sector is contracting faster. (The internationally benchmarked S&P Global/Markit factory PMI version also reported a sharp drop info contraction in July, also largely on stagnating new order levels.)In China, like the official China factory PMIs had signaled, the independent Caixin PMI also signaled that their factory sector went backwards in July too. The Caixin survey isn't as negative as the official survey, but it now shows the overall sector in contraction. The Caixin survey tends to account better for mid-sized private manufacturers whereas the official survey includes the very large state-owned enterprises.China recognises the need to do more to stimulate internal consumption, and they are now committed to using subsidies as a key tool. Essentially they are subsidising trade-in prices to generate sales of new items. The target is to raise this subsidy level to ¥300 bln in 2025. On Friday they announced another ¥69 bln in ultra-long special treasury bonds will be issued for this purpose, the fourth tranche in the program.Another policy action announced on Friday involves their war on "involution", which they take to mean excessive or irresponsible competition involving a general race to the bottom. It was a feature of their housing crisis, and is a big worry for their car manufacturing industry. Top-down pressure to rein in this sort of behaviour is intense now. In fact, BYD is now indicating their production levels will be lower in future.However in Japan, Toyota has told suppliers that it aims to boost 2025 global production to about 10 million vehicles, underpinned by strong sales of hybrids despite concerns over the impact of American tariffs. (In the US, carmaker Ford is noting that tariffs are not helping them.)In Singapore, the latest PMI readings painted a mixed manufacturing outlook with the electronics sector in continued expansion whereas the overall manufacturing sector reverted to a marginal contraction. Declining now order levels caused the shift.In India, the growth of factory orders and production strengthened in July, driving their factory PMI up to an impressive 59.1, although that was a touch less than the result expected. Indian factories are easily the star of the show on a global basis.The EU released its July inflation data on Friday, and there were no surprises there with inflation stable at 2.0% in the Euro area. The overall level is still being restrained by falls in energy costs.Australian producer prices rose 3.4% over the past year to June, down from a 3.7% rate in the year to March, and down from a 4.8% rate in the year to June 2024. Cost pressures are still high, but they are easing, even if slowly.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.22%, up +1 bps from Saturday, down -18 bps for the week.The price of gold will start today at US$3,362/oz, up +US$14 from Saturday.American oil prices have slipped back again, now just over US$67/bbl with the international Brent price holding at US$69.50/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$65 and US$68.50/bbl. OPEC has agreed a big increase in oil production. And we should probably note another fall in North American oil rigs in action, now down to their lowest level since September 2021.The Kiwi dollar is at 59.2 USc and up +20 bps from Saturday but down nearly -1c from a week ago. Over all of July the fall was -180 bps. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -40 bps at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.1, unchanged from Saturday, down -60 bps for the weekThe bitcoin price started today at US$114,109 and up +0.8% from this time Saturday, but down -2.0% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

11 - Imam Sadi's explanation of Jawaami' Al-Akhbaar | Abu Abdir-Rahmān Hilāl - Manchester Explanation of Shaykh Ubayd al-jaabiree Taught by ‎Ustādh Abu Abdir-Rahmān Hilāl حفظه الله

In this episode, Elsa, Peter, and Blake discuss the weakening of the USD, the outlook for the Fed and UST markets as well as the cross implications of both developments on the ECB and European rates.Participants: Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Poppi, Tommie Basketball Opener, Minny Weekend Bets, Men's Hockey Newcomers, UST officially D1, NBA Draft Recap, MN prospects in NHL draft, Wolves New Arena?, Aaron Rodgers last Hoorah, UNRL, A-Rod & Marc Lore officially Wolves & Lynx owners and more!!!

Petit Landais, François à, d'aussi loin qu'il se souvienne, toujours rêvé de ballon ovale ! Emmené conjointement au golf et au rugby, il fait ses armes du côté de Saint Vincent de Tyrosse et fait immédiatement montre de qualités remarquables. Equipier premier dès ses 17 ans, il est rapidement promu Capitaine d'une US Tyrosse alors en 2ème division.En 1999, à l'âge de 20 ans, il s'engage au SU Agen, club dans lequel il passera toute sa carrière de joueur pro, et avec qui il connaitra presque toutes les émotions.Finaliste du Top 16 en 2002, titulaire de 8 capes avec le XV de France, il a pris sa retraite de joueur en 2009 non sans avoir aidé les Lot et Garonnais à remonter en Top 14.Immédiatement reconverti entraineur dans la formation Agenaise, François a ensuite pris la direction de Perpignan, avant de retrouver ses racines Tyrossaises, et il officie maintenant du côté de Clermont Ferrand.Si un adjectif peut le définir, c'est bien celui de passionné : de rugby évidemment, mais également de sport au sens large du terme, de transmission et de la culture qui est la sienne, celle des Landes, avec un attrait tout particulier pour la tauromachie.Arrivé en haut tout jeune, il a appris à se forger en traversant bien des galères. Vous allez le constater, son parcours et son état d'esprit sont réellement remarquables.Notre échange était dense et passionnant : en bref, je me suis régalé en sa compagnie !Bonne écoute !-----------------------------

Izrael zaatakował Iran w serii zmasowanych nalotów bombowych na ośrodki nuklearne, bazy wojskowe, domy naukowców zaangażowanych w program nuklearny oraz dzielnice mieszkaniowe w Teheranie i innych miastach. Izraelczycy twierdzą, że jest to atak wyprzedzający, a Iran stał na progu wyprodukowania dziewięciu bomb atomowych. W atakach zginął dowódca Korpusu Strażników Rewolucji – elitarnej jednostki wojskowej – a także szef sztabu armii i kilku wysokich rangą naukowców związanych z programem nuklearnym.W odpowiedzi Iran wystrzelił sto dronów w kierunku Izraela. Jak twierdzą źródła izraelskie, wszystkie zostały przechwycone jeszcze przed wejściem w izraelską przestrzeń powietrzną. Prezydent Trump powiedział, że został uprzedzony o ataku, ale Stany Zjednoczone nie biorą w nim udziału.Jak piątkowe wydarzenia wpływają na sytuację w regionie? Czy dojdzie do kontynuacji rozmów w sprawie programu nuklearnego Iranu? Jaka będzie skala militarnej odpowiedzi Iranu nie tylko wobec Izraela, ale również Stanów Zjednoczonych?W Kolumbii zamach na kandydata w wyborach prezydenckich, a potem fala przemocy w niegdysiejszej siedzibie jednego z karteli narkotykowych – mieście Cali. Czy do kraju doświadczonego prawie 60-letnią wojną domową wraca przemoc na dużą skalę?Według tajnego dokumentu rosyjskich służb Chiny stanowią poważne zagrożenie wywiadowcze dla Rosji. FSB podkreśla, że Chińczycy prowadzą agresywny werbunek szpiegów i realizują plany sprzeczne z interesami Rosji. Co ten raport mówi o rzeczywistych stosunkach między Moskwą a Pekinem?Zmarł Frederick Forsyth – mistrz i prekursor nowoczesnego thrillera politycznego. Co miał Forsyth, czego inni nie mieli? Dlaczego do dziś jego książki tak dobrze się sprzedają, a on sam stanowi punkt odniesienia dla wielu pisarzy tego gatunku?A także: W Szwajcarii obrywający się lodowiec zniszczył wioskę Blatten, zmieniając miejscowość i całą dolinę, w której się znajdowała, w rumowisko. Czy przed osuwającymi się lodowcami i potężnymi lawinami ziemnymi można się w ogóle chronić?Rozkład jazdy: (03:04) Łukasz Fyderek: Atak Izraela na Iran(23:42) Joanna Gocłowska-Bolek: Przemoc wraca do Kolumbii(42:44) Podziękowania(48:53) Marcin Żyła: Ustępujący lodowiec niszczy wioskę w Szwajcarii(1:05:26) Michał Lubina: Chiny szpiegują w Rosji(1:30:26) Piotr Gociek: Kim był Frederic Forsyth?(1:55:42) Do usłyszenia---------------------------------------------Raport o stanie świata to audycja, która istnieje dzięki naszym Patronom, dołącz się do zbiórki ➡️ ⁠https://patronite.pl/DariuszRosiak⁠Subskrybuj newsletter Raportu o stanie świata ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠➡️ ⁠https://dariuszrosiak.substack.com⁠Koszulki i kubki Raportu ➡️ ⁠https://patronite-sklep.pl/kolekcja/raport-o-stanie-swiata/⁠ [Autopromocja]

1.) US DOLLAR - What is correlated and what is not...and why does it matter?2.) INTEREST RATES - Consensus will now get TOO DOVISH headed into next month's CPI print.  UST tapping TRADE support at 4.33%3.) OIL - TREND support at 63/barrel WTIONE MORE - Volatility.  IVOL premiums showing up.  Not crash conditions.

这是一期风格上略有嬉皮，但实际上既定位严肃、在内容上也实现了深度和广度兼具，讲透了热门概念「RWA」（Real World Assets，真实世界资产）的发展历程、实践经验、面临困境和远大前程。 本期节目从质疑和批判开始，到建设性思考和充满正能量的期待结束。RWA 「带教老师」民道老师认真教，两位主播认真学，现场充满欢声笑语——有愉悦的笑，也有无奈的笑，背后是全是思考和憧憬。 希望听众 enjoy～ 【主播】 刘锋，BODL Ventures 合伙人，前链闻总编辑 熊浩珺Jack，律动 BlockBeats 副主编，《Web3 无名说》主播 【嘉宾】 杨民道，DForce创始人 【赞助商】 本期节目由开源硬件钱包 OneKey 赞助播出。硬件钱包是保护加密资产最有效的方式之一。加密世界是黑暗森林，每个人都该为自己的资产负责。物理隔离的硬件钱包，能更好保护助记词不被盗窃。 访问OneKey官网 (https://shop.onekey.so/discount/web3101)购买开源硬件钱包，使用折扣码「web3101」可享受 95 折优惠。 【你将听到】 笑谈「变种RWA」：Really Worthless Assets? 02:32 RWA 火爆现状一瞥：从 RWA 辅导班到「带教老师」（等等，你们在聊什么） 03:02 为什么Web2 VC 更爱 RWA 概念 05:16 嘲笑 RWA 的心路历程 05:38从张大千的画到厂房到煤炭，这些「实物资产们」都要上链变成 RWA！ 08:18Case study：黄金这种标准化资产变成 RWA 之路 08:48 RWA 发行主体非常重要 厘清 RWA 概念的来龙去脉 10:52 重新再来：RWA 究竟是什么？ 11:10 溯源｜真实世界资产始作俑者： MakerDAO 11:27 溯源｜RWA 概念最早实践者：Centrifuge 19:52 RWA 概念火爆的第一个催化剂是稳定币 21:47 中文世界热炒 RWA 概念反映出融资环境差，需要找一个更好的融资渠道 22:15 加密货币世界缺少真实生息场景也推动 RWA 资产被重视 数数适合上链的资产有哪些 22:30 Case study：Apollo 推出的「ACRED」如何实现高收益 25:48 固收类将从标准类到非标类迁移，从低风险到中、再到高风险走 26: 16 石油为什么不是好的 RWA 标的：不好审计 27:55 充电桩做 RWA 产品的优势：运营数据可验证 31:45 比亚迪的「迪链」做 RWA 的可能 33:40传统固收、权益类资产都有上链需求，但是固收资产好于权益类资产 34:19 股票代币化大有可能 许可 vs. 无需许可：一个门，两片天 40:43 RWA 发行技术不是护城河，有声誉优势的传统金融机构出来做 RWA 产品，秒杀原生团队 42:45 有经验的 DeFi 原生团队利用好已上链的 RWA 资产，有机会玩出新天地 47:37 打通许可和非许可这两个世界，非许可世界里可能组合出来新东西的数量会远远大过许可世界 51:56 为啥合作资产熄火花了，RWA 爆火了？ 58:07 主权国家干涉非许可世界的可能性及解决方案 【名词解释】 观察 RWA 领域发展的有用工具： RWA.xyz (https://app.rwa.xyz/) RWA 行业的标准数据分析平台，其网站可以提供 RWA 领域目前最全面的数据仪表盘和数据监测工具。 本期提到的一些 Web3 企业和词汇： Tether Gold (XAUt) XAUt 是由 Tether 公司（稳定币 USDT 发行方） 推出的一种黄金支持的稳定币，每个 XAUt 代币代表 1 盎司（Troy Ounce）的实物黄金。 Pax Gold (PAXG) PAXG 是一种由实物黄金支持的加密货币，由受监管的金融科技公司 Paxos Trust Company 发行，每一枚 PAXG 代币代表一盎司黄金。 MakerDAO 一个链上去中心化金融（DeFi）协议，最初的主要功能是提供超额抵押借贷服务，并发行去中心化稳定币 DAI，是 DeFi 领域最具影响力的项目之一。MakerDAO 最近进行了品牌重塑，新品牌为「Sky」。播客中嘉宾和主播提到的「Rune」，指的是 MakerDAO 的创始人 Rune Christensen。 DAI 是 MakerDAO 发行的去中化稳定币，其设计机制希望实现 DAI与美元 1:1 锚定，由超额抵押的加密资产（如 ETH、WBTC）或现实世界资产（RWA）支持。DAI 是目前最大的去中心化稳定币。 Centrifuge 一个开发和运营团队主要在德国的去中心化资产融资协议，专注于将现实世界资产（RWA）代币化并引入区块链，以增强资产流动性并降低中小企业的融资成本。它主要通过智能合约和区块链技术，让企业能够抵押现实资产（如发票、房地产、特许权使用费等）来获得去中心化金融（DeFi）市场的融资，而无需依赖传统银行或中介机构。Centrifuge 是 RWA代币化领域的先驱。 Apollo Diversified Credit Securitize Fund (ACRED) ACRED 基金是由资产管理公司 Apollo Global Management 与 Securitize 合作推出的代币化私募信贷基金，将其底层资产（包括企业直接贷款、资产支持融资、结构化信贷）代币化，旨在将传统私人信贷资产引入区块链，为投资者提供链上高收益固收类投资机会。 Synthetix 一个基于以太坊的去中心化金融（DeFi）协议，专注于合成资产的发行与交易。它允许用户在不实际持有标的资产的情况下，通过超额质押的方式，获得对加密货币、法币、大宗商品甚至股票等资产的价格敞口。Synthetix 通过智能合约和超额抵押机制，确保合成资产的价值与真实资产价格保持一致。 Terra Terra 是一个基于 Cosmos SDK 开发的区块链生态系统，专注于算法稳定币和去中心化金融（DeFi） 应用。Terra 发行了算法稳定币 UST，通过超额抵押的方式铸造稳定币，并采用算法机制维持与美元 1:1 锚定，而非依赖法币储备。UST 市值一度达 27.5 亿美元，2022 年 5 月 UST 脱钩引发恐慌，导致 Terra 整个生态体系崩盘。Terra 生态还曾推出 Mirror Protocol，用户可以生成和交易股票类合成资产。 【后期】 AMEI 【BGM】 Mumbai - Ooyy 【在这里找到我们】 收听渠道：Apple Podcast｜Spotify｜YouTube｜小宇宙 联系我们：podcast@sv101.net

Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Jack Greenslade in FX Sales about the move in financial markets this week following the US-China trade war de-escalation announced on Monday. Derek explains why the dollar gain petered out quickly but also highlights the huge buying of UST bonds by private foreign investors. So even though foreign central banks might be selling, the buying by private investors easily offsets that. Derek and Jack also discuss the USD/Asia moves and how investors' behaviours in regard to hedging USD exposures may be changing.

APAC stocks traded mostly higher following the rally on Wall St owing to the US-China trade war de-escalation after both sides agreed to cut tariffs by 115ppts for an initial period of 90 days, although some of the gains were capped as the euphoria began to moderate.White House Executive Order said US will cut the minimum tariff on China shipments from 120% to 54%, and a minimum flat fee of USD 100 is to remain.DXY took a breather and gave back some of yesterday's firm gains; 10yr UST futures traded rangebound after recently suffering from a lack of haven appealEuropean equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market finished with gains of 1.6% on Monday.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Jobs, German ZEW, US CPI, Speakers include US President Trump, BoE's Pill, Bailey & ECB's Rehn, Supply from Netherlands, UK, Italy & Germany, Earnings from JD.Com, Intuitive Machines, On, Munich Re, Hannover Re, Bayer, K+S, Leg, Ferrovial & A2A.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

4pm Hour: Jason talks about staying at the Four Seasons this weekend - should he have stayed in or gone out? Dan shares a Monday Message on the need to show up for each other. And finally Jason talks with Professor Rachel Moran from UST about the DOJ's investigation into Mary Moriarty's race policy.

In six short trading days from 4/2 to 4/9, the SPX realized as much vol as it did during the ENTIRE year of 2024. The protracted risk-off that began with the “Liberation Day” fallout ranks only behind Covid and the GFC in terms of severity using data going back to 1990. While we've likely moved past peak VIX, in the aftermath of recent chaos is an overhang of uncertainty that may hamper critical decision-making. I see plenty of lingering uncertainties - from the uneven communication from the WH, from the unpriced reactions of our trading partners and from how the market will need to price in the potential economic and corporate profit fallout from the last several weeks. Unfortunately, the recent period has been a totally unforced exercise in negative branding for both the dollar and US government bond market. For the VIX to run to 50 and for duration not to rally concurrently is a bad outcome, amounting to an asset pricing taste test that went poorly. Scott Bessent and Company need to more effectively safeguard one of our most prized possessions, the US government bond market. The Ten-Year note, not the SPX, is the risk asset. The real financial tail risk that would bring about a spiral higher in the VIX would seem to lie in the potential that long-dated UST yields rise quickly. From a contagion standpoint, the Ten Year is the vulnerability. It's not being treated as such. I hope you find this useful. Have a great week. 

Tom has a TV and a pair of speakers set up now! Kaleidescape joins the 8K Association. Epson QS100 adds a UST projector to the Q-Series. Emotiva’s RMC-1+ and XMC-2+ Pre-Pros finally bring HDMI 2.1 and DTS:X Pro. Nintendo Switch 2 pre-orders begin in Canada and the USA. Pictures shown in this episode: https://flic.kr/s/aHBqjCa6vh 00:00:00 – […] The post AV Rant #964: College Life appeared first on AV Rant.

«Hacía ocho años que tenía en jaque a todo el Cibao. Se presentaba de improviso en Santiago, desaparecía y al otro día abaleaba un soldado en Salcedo.... Se dijo que era brujo; que cuando lo quería, se hacía invisible. Se le temía como a un dios implacable. El Gobierno despachó cientos de hombres tras él, y el ejército llenaba la cárcel de pobres campesinos, sospechosos de encubrirle. Nada.... »... Me llenó de sorpresa verlo tan sereno... como si no fuera el objeto de una caza feroz y larga. Llevaríamos más de media hora allí. Él había contado innumerables episodios de su vida y parecía muy cansado. Tenía una voz triste.... Él era campesino, joven.... »—Quique. Quizá yo pueda serle útil sin faltarle a mi conciencia. »—No, amigo, no tiene que faltarle; sólo lo quería pa conversar con usté. Me parece que no voy a durar mucho, y como de mí se habla tanto, no quería morirme sin que siquiera un hombre supiera que de no acosarme como un perro con rabia, esto se hubiera evitao.... »... Torné a verlo. Ni miraba ni se movía. Negro, triste y perseguido... »—No piense mal, Quique. ¿Por qué va a morirse usté? »—Es que tengo que morirme, amigo.... He pasao muchos años poniéndole el frente al diablo y llevándome en claro a muchos vagamundos; pero hace unos quince días que me pasó una cosa muy mala, y dende entonces ni an duermo.... Quique había estado rondando por Licey en pos de un compadre enfermo, y los soldados lo velaron. Ellos no acertaban nunca, porque la fama de Quique les hacía temblar el pulso a los mejores. Además, no se cuidaban de que hubiera o no gente. Mejor si la había, porque así se propalaba la noticia de que se había enfrentado al temible Quique Blanco, y eso, claro, podía proporcionar algún ascenso. Así, ese día una niña cruzaba cerca del fuego. La cogió una bala de Quique. Él la vio caer, y de golpe sintió que se le aflojaba el corazón. »—Dende ese día ando como loco, amigo. Cierro los ojos y la veo cayendo. Era una pobre criatura. No me lo perdono, amigo, y quisiera tener el poder de Dios pa devolvérsela a su mama.... »—¿Usté tiene hijos, Quique? —pregunté. »—No, amigo. Si hubiera tenío uno... »Adiviné el resto. En su lógica primitiva, dar su hijo en pago de la muerta era una solución. ¡Y eso lo pensaba él, que no sabía cómo se quiere a un hijo!... »Dos días después... me encontré con la noticia de que un muchacho de Moca había sorprendido a Quique Blanco durmiendo y le había destrozado la cabeza de un tiro con el revólver del propio muerto. Más tarde supe que habían paseado el cadáver por todos los pueblos del Cibao, para que la gente no creyera que seguía vivo.»1 Este cuento del ilustre escritor cibaeño Juan Bosch, uno de sus Cuentos escritos antes del exilio y por lo tanto antes de que llegara a ser presidente de la República Dominicana, nos recuerda que Dios sí dio a su Hijo en pago de la muerte que merecía cada uno de nosotros a causa de nuestro pecado, y que, a diferencia de lo que sucedió luego de que mataron a Quique Blanco, no había cadáver suyo que pudiera pasearse por los pueblos de Judea o de Galilea «para que la gente no creyera que seguía vivo». Porque Jesucristo resucitó,2 y hoy quiere que lo busquemos de todo corazón para que lleguemos a conocerlo en persona como Él realmente es, un Dios poderoso pero clemente y compasivo.3 Carlos ReyUn Mensaje a la Concienciawww.conciencia.net 1 Juan Bosch, «La verdad», Cuentos escritos antes del exilio (Santo Domingo: Edición Especial, 1974), pp. 38‑47. 2 Jn 3:16‑17; Ro 4:25; 6:23; 1Co 15:3‑4 3 Éx 34:6; Neh 9:17; Sal 86:15

With a passion for serving and growing the local church, particularly in areas where it's difficult to train and raise up leaders, Dr. Michael Reeves, President of Union School of Theology (Wales), explains how UST trains pastors and leaders in the church worldwide—including pastors for churches in hostile areas and restricted nations. Listen as Dr. Reeves explains the importance of the education to equip church leaders to know God, love and adore Him and His ways, and know the gospel so they may effectively preach it. This training, and the deep knowledge of God is fosters, helps pastors withstand persecution when it comes. Dr. Reeves will also share about his own missions experience living on the border of Pakistan and Afghanistan, and the lessons he learned living in a Muslim culture and seeing how Christians were treated—and how they responded. “You become like the God you worship,” Reeves says. “When believers only have Christ—and not other substitutes for Him—it seems that they're able to taste of that joy more deeply. He'll also share thoughts on how each of us can nurture our own prayer life. Pray for believers to have a deeper knowledge of God and be inspired by the testimonies of persecuted Christians, which display beautiful evidence of the power of the gospel. The VOM App for your smartphone or tablet will help you pray daily for persecuted Christians throughout the year, as well as giving free access to e-books, audio books, video content and feature films. Download the VOM App for your iOS or Android device today.