Podcasts about UST

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news Trump cancelled his latest planned military strikes claiming negotiating progress. That has been enough to settle financial markets today. But first in the US, producer prices jumped +1.1% in May from April to be +6.5% higher than a year ago and to their highest since November 2022. And before the pandemic, their highest since this series began in 2009. Core PPI was up +5.1% and a similar high. These rises were more than expected. US initial jobless claims also rose more than expected last week.to 228,400 and more than seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.69 mln people on these benefits, less than a year ago and marginally less than two years ago. In Canada, building consents were expected to fall back in April after the spurt in March, but they fell more than expected. Residential consents fell -5.5% and commercial consents fell an outsized -10.5%, both from the prior month. From a year ago, these consent levels were +2.5% high, but that is on a value basis and construction PPI rose +2.8% in that same time. In Europe, the ECB raised its policy interest rate by +25 bps to 2.4% as widely expected, it first increase since 2023. It also raised its inflation expectation to 3% in 2026 and cut its growth forecast slightly to +0.8% this year and to 1.2% in 2027. In Indonesia, their financial crisis is intensifying with their currency in freefall and their stock market too. The worry is it may drive a social crisis at our backdoor. In Australia, the Melbourne Institutes survey of inflation expectations dipped in June to 5.5% following a dip in May after they peaked at 5.9% in April. The June result was well below the 6.5% jump some expected. But remember, their fuel tax concession (50%) is expected to end at the end of this month. If it does, it could put upward pressure on consumer inflation. (April actual CPI came in at 4.2% and the May result will be released on June 24.) In contrast wage expectations have remained unchanged for the past seven months. The World Bank said overnight that global growth is leaking away due solely to the Middle East handbrake. It now sees 2026 expanding at 2.5%, and 2027 at 2.8%. These are slowdowns from 2025's +2.9% expansion and the prospect is slowest growth since the pandemic. Meanwhile OPEC bravely says that world oil demand will recover quickly after the current Persian Gulf issues are resolved. Global container freight rates rose another +3% last week to be level with the elevated rates of a year ago, when the Houthis were threatening the Red Sea access. It is all about outbound rates from China to Europe. In fact, China to the USWC rates are holding, but much lower on a year-ago basis. Bulk cargo rates fell -12% in the past week to be +68% higher than year-ago levels. And official forecasters are now certain enough to warn of a severe El Niño climate event starting soon. The US issued its official warning after Australia said the chances are rising. We are being warned to expect 2026-27 to bring global risks of intense heat waves, sharp drops in rainfall in some key areas but deluges in other parts. India is expected to get a weak monsoon. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.45%, down -9 bps for the day. The price of gold has recovered +US$54 from yesterday at US$4152/oz. Silver is up US$1.50 at US$66/oz. Oil prices are down -US$5 from yesterday at just under US$86.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$89.50/bbl. Hormuz transits are resuming today with 69 in the past 24 hours as owners rush to get their ships out. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just under 58.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 82.7 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.8 which is also little-changed from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,223 and up +2.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.0%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.  Today we lead with news the US is frustrated with Iran and is promising even more military strikes. The deal Trump thought was close, isn't. The escalation threat has oil and financial markets reacting badly. But first today, American CPI inflation jumped from 3.8% in April to 4.2% in May, largely as expected and largely based on higher fuel costs. This is its highest since April 2023. Today's geopolitical events and markets reactions probably mean it isn't finished with the current trajectory. Actually, for March, April and now May, their CPI index rose +2.0% in just those months, so the rate being experienced by consumers (annualised +8%?) is very much higher than the annual one reported. The White House reaction was very unexpected: Trump said, "You know, I love the inflation." Certainly, financial markets were unimpressed. There was a large jump in American mortgage applications last week even though benchmark home loan interest rates stayed elevated at about 6.6%. After six weeks of holding back, it seems borrowers are coming to accept that they have to pay these higher rates. Remember pre-war, these rates were under 6.1%. The jump in applications this week were from both new borrowers and those needing refinance. For a seventh straight week, and including stocks in their strategic reserve, American crude oil stocks dropped in the latest update, and by almost double the rate expected. Today's US Treasury 10yr bond auction was well supported and yield's rose only modestly for this one, coming in at 4.48% median (4.54% high bid), up from 4.41% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. In Canada, their central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% as expected, and for the fifth consecutive time. They had inflation at 2.8% in April so, so far, there is little evidence higher energy prices are being passed on or embedded in their consumer cost base. Data out in Japan yesterday shows their May producer prices rose +6.3% from a year ago, up from 5.3% in April and the fastest rise since the end of the pandemic in March 2023. After the April spurt, they rose another +0.9% in May alone. China's CPI inflation level was low and stable in May, coming in at 1.2% from a year ago, unchanged from April. Beef prices were up +4.2% however and lamb prices up +6.2%. Egg prices are up +6.6% on the same basis and a five year high. These were more than offset by a -16% drop in Chinese pork prices though. And dairy prices fell -1.2% on the same year-ago basis. But China's producer prices are not so calm. In fact they rose an outsized +5.8% in May from a year ago for industrial products, up 3.9% overall when you broaden the categories to include food, clothing and other goods produced for consumers. Apart from the pandemic, the headline 3.9% is the highest they have had since August 2018. In Australia, we should note that their emergency petrol tax concession will end at the end of June. That will juice up their inflation if it isn't extended. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.54%, up +1 bp for the day.  The price of gold will start today down another -US$160 from yesterday at US$4098/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at US$64.50/oz. Oil prices are up +US$3 from yesterday at just under US$91.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$94.50/bbl. Hormuz transits are almost non-existent today, only 2 in the past 24 hours.. The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.8 which is down -10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$61,781 and little-changed (up +0.3%) from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.7%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news uncertainty swirls in the Middle East as Iran has shot down an American Apache helicopter (and Trump is looking more like Jimmy Carter by the day). But more ships are transiting (paying Iran's toll), and that extra oil is easing the global price. But first locally, the overnight dairy Pulse auction delivered lower prices for the four products offered. AMF was down -4.6% from last week's full auction. Butter was down -0.6%. SMP was down -5.5% and WMP was down -3.5%. But an intervening -2% fall in the NZD took some of the sting out of these retreats. In the US, NFIB Business Optimism Index fell again and to its lowest since October 2024.. These businesses are struggling with "significant and unpredictable hikes in fuel prices", which they find harder to pass on to their customers compared to their larger corporate competitors. The weekly ADP jobs report said new private sector jobs created were lower last week at +29,000, in fact their lowest since the end of March. American existing home sales actually rose in May to an annualised rate of 4.17 mln, its highest of the year. This was impressive because mortgage interest rates rose in the period and seems not to have been the handbrake sometimes assumed. All the same, unsold inventory rose. There was a small but notable increase in demand for the overnight and popular US Treasury 3 year bond which delivered a median yield of 4.15% (high of 4.19%), sharply up on the 3.92% median at the prior equivalent event a month ago. In April, US exports of goods and services rose +2.6% from March +12.5% from a year ago, helped by better exports of crude oil, AI computer gear and aircraft, but most offset by a quite sharp fall in tourism receipts. Imports were up +1.9% from March, up +9.1% from a year ago, dominated by capital goods and rising transport and travel cost by Americans. Their trade deficit narrowed slightly, but big trade deficits remained with Taiwan (-$19.3 nln), Vietnam (-$19.3 bln), Mexico (-$14.8 bln), China (-$12.0 bln), the EU (-$7.2 bln), and Canada (-$6.2 bln). The Texas screwworm outbreak is spreading which will affect their beef trade. The outbreak now includes for a dog. Meanwhile, Canadian exports rose +1.6% from the previous month to C$75.2 bln in April, the highest on record and up +24.7% from the same month a year ago. Imports rose too, but they still managed to report their best monthly trade surplus since January 2025 and their best April since 2008. Across the Pacific, China's exports surged +19.4% in May from a year ago to a record high of US$377 bln, far exceeding forecasts of +15% and accelerating sharply from April's 14.1% rise. It was the fastest increase since February and gave them a trade surplus of +US$105.4 bln. However, Chinese oil imports hit an eight year low in May. Across the strait, Taiwan said its exports rose even more impressively, up +52% from a year ago. Their imports were up +55%. That means a trade surplus for them of +US$17.9 bln, middle-range for what they have had since October 2025 and wildly higher than in any prior period Japanese machine tool orders fell in May from April after falling in April too. But they remain up +37% from a year ago. The monthly easing was for orders from both domestic and foreign customers. Staying in Japan, reports are growing that their central bank will raise its policy rate by +25 bps to 1.0% when they meet on Friday week. And they are likely to pause their JGB bond sell-down program that is underway. And in Indonesia, their central bank held an emergency meeting to assess the economic crisis growing in their financial and fx markets. At that meeting they hikes their policy rate to 5.50%, a hike of +25 bps. They last met only three weeks ago when they raised their rate by +25 bps at that time too. They started 2026 with a 4.75% rate. Their actions are required to stop the Indonesian currency falling sharply, down -7.8% in 2026. In Europe, the Netherlands blocked an American company from buying a local firm that handles its national ID system, saying it would create a “threat to the public interest.” The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.53%, down -2 bps for the day. The price of gold will start today down -US$75 from yesterday at US$4258/oz. Silver is down a sharp -US$3.50 at just under US$65/oz. Oil prices are down -US$2.50 from yesterday at just under US$88.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$91.50/bbl. Hormuz transits are still very low despite the pricing optimism. China's crude imports dropped to around 7.8 million barrels per day last month, the lowest level in more than eight years and nearly 4 million barrels per day below the 2025 average. Weaker shipments to from the world's largest oil importer even if caused by Hormuz, combined with record US exports and emergency reserve releases, has limited the price impact of the Middle East conflict. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 58.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.9 which is up +10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$61,545 and down -2.95% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.6%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that yesterday's renewed hostilities between Israel and Iran seem to have been paused. And financial markets are reacting as though this is something permanent, a deluded reading of even recent history. It is more an excuse to bet on higher equity prices again. Away from these irrational markets and after hitting a two and a half year high in April at 3.5%, American inflation expectations for one year ahead slipped back to 3.2% in May, according to the latest national New York Fed survey update. Given that April's actual inflation was recorded at 3.8%, this represents a sanguine view of what lies ahead. More broadly, the same survey shows that households expect their financial situation to deteriorate. It is not only households. In a focus on the SME sector, another national review found them deeply pessimistic about 2026 prospects. Across the Pacific in Japan, some top-line data out yesterday for the March quarter points to improving metrics. GDP came in with a +1.8% growth rate and better than expected (+1.3%). And bank lending data shot up in May, up +5.7% and easily exceeding the expansion of +5.4% in April from a year ago. In China, construction machinery sales were strong in May with excavator sales up +36% from year-ago levels as infrastructure projects gain momentum. Things are not so bright for car sales in China. Sales ‌dropped -22% from a year earlier to 1.53 million vehicles in May, the eighth consecutive monthly fall. Even EV sales fell (-5%). In Germany, they posted some negative factory order data for April. They were down -3.8% on an inflation adjusted basis from the previous month, but that came after a +4.5% rise on the same basis for March. From a year ago, also in real terms, German factory orders were up +1.6% in April. And factory sales didn't decline in April either. In the Persian Gulf, to cross the Strait of Hormuz, the transit trickle is still low but not zero. Only ten ships crossed in the past 24 hours. It has now been 100 days since the crisis began and it seems Iran is successfully tolling the Strait, according to maritime sources. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.55%, up just +1 bp for the day.  The price of gold will start today up +US$5 from yesterday at US$4333/oz. Silver is up +US$1 at just under US$68.50/oz. Oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday at just on US$91/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$94/bbl and up +US$1. Hormuz transits are still very low despite the pricing optimism. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at this time at just over 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 82.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.8 which is up +20 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$63,416 and up +1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news US benchmark interest rates rose notably after their apparently strong labour market report. But first, locally this week it will be about migration and travel data for April, possibly plus the May PMIs. In Australia, we will be watching for the April building permit data, along with updates for May for their consumer and business confidence surveys. In the US, they will release its consumer and producer inflation figures, the final price gauges before this month's Federal Reserve decision at the end of next week, in addition to existing home sales and their trade balance. Likewise, trade data and inflation data is coming from China as well as new yuan lending data. Trade data from Taiwan will drop this week too. And at the end of the week we will get central bank decisions from Canada and the ECB. On the corporate front, SpaceX will release what is likely to be the largest IPO on record. Over the weekend, China said its foreign exchange reserves swelled again and are now at US$3.44 tln and their highest since October 2015. They added a bit more gold but its value eased in the past month, so this wasn't a factor in the expanding reserves. Also, there was data out for Taiwanese inflation (firmish but low at 2.2%), Singapore retail (doing better with a +5.4% rise from a year ago), and an Indian central bank policy rate review (holding at 5.25%). None of these moved markets. Meanwhile, India said its Q1-2026 economic expansion rolled on with a better growth rate (+7.8%) than markets were expecting (+7.2%). In the US, the anticipated non-farm payrolls report delivered a strong result over the weekend, with a +172,000 jobs gain at the headline level and more than double the expected +82,000 gain. From a year ago, that is a rise of +503,000. But this data is the seasonally adjusted result from payroll employment. Looking more broadly, US civilian employment rose +149,000 in May from April but is -504,000 lower than year-ago levels. It is clearly very tough indeed for the unincorporated self employed. Of the headline jobs gain, +70,000 were in their hospitality sector (expecting a soccer World Cup boost?), local government added +55,000 jobs, healthcare +35,000, social assistance +17,000. There we no changes or declines in the manufacturing, IT and administration sectors, and little in the construction sector. Basically, lower paid jobs rose, higher paid ones shrank. The US no longer releases details of full-time, part-time job changes or detail. Total American consumer debt rose by +US$21 in May, following a downwardly revised +US$22 bln gain in April. This was slightly more than expected. Revolving credit, which includes credit card debt, rose +US$14 bln while nonrevolving credit, which includes vehicle and student loans, rose +US$8 bln in the month. This data shows sustained consumer demand for debt despite elevated borrowing costs and the rising interest-rate environment. And that, along with the gritty labour market questions, has driven a pullback in attitudes, to a more risk-off, defensive posture at the end of last week. More investors see the US Fed pushing ahead with rate hikes earlier than anticipated to try and not be blindsided from rising inflation getting embedded. After all, the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, and oil prices have ended the week higher than where they started. In turn that risk-off has driven US benchmark interest rates up, equity markets lower, and the US currency very much higher, Canada also released its May jobs data over the weekend and that was better than expected too. They added +88,000 jobs when a gain of only +10,000 was anticipated. Better, their full-time jobs grew +154,000 in the month, as part-time jobs shrank. Their jobless rates fell notably to 6.6%, from 6.9% in April and continuing the downward trend that started in October 2025. A stronger jobs market may also give the Bank of Canada cover to raise rates to get ahead of their inflation threats, too. In the EU, Ireland has had a stunning reversal of fortune, with their economy contracting more than -12% in Q1-2026. It alone was enough to twist the overall EU GDP lower. Ireland's multinational-dominated sectors contracted by -27% in Q1-2026 with their domestic sectors expanding by +0.4% and more in line with the other EU countries. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.54%, unchanged from this time Saturday but up +11 bps for the week.  The price of gold will start today up +US$4 from Saturday at US$4328/oz. That is down -US$227/oz (or -5.1%) from this time last week and about its lowest level of the year. Silver is down -50 USc at just under US$67.50/oz, down -10% for the week. Oil prices are little-changed from Saturday just on US$90.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$93/bbl. Hormuz transits are still very low despite the pricing optimism. A week ago these prices were US$87.50/bbl and US$91.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar has stayed down from Saturday at this time at just under 58 USc. From a week ago it is down -190 bps. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.6 which is down -10 bps from Saturday, down -170 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$62,246 and recovering +3.4% from this time Saturday and still falling. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.1%.  You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with Hezbollah has rejected being part of a US-Iran accommodation, and Israel is continuing to attack it in Beirut and southern Lebanon. Despite this, markets still hope that a ceasefire can be agreed and the Strait of Hormuz opened. They are pricing it will, but it is shut still today. Elsewhere and in the US, there were 97,000 announced job cuts in May, the most since January and the highest May since 2020 and the pandemic effect - and prior to that the highest since this tracking began in 1999. Most of the current layoffs are in the tech industry, and due to AI displacement. Markets await the May non-farm payrolls report tomorrow and the expectation is for a modest +85,000 net jobs gain. This is despite the private ADP report indicating a higher level. US initial jobless claims were little-changed last week at 188,000 although seasonal factors would have expected a solid -10,000 fall from that level. There are now 1.64 mln people on these benefits. lower than year ago levels. And staying in the US, they have found the flesh-eating screwworm in their Texas cattle herd, another reason their beef industry is unlikely to be able to sustain its output. The EU said its retail sales volume growth was weak in April, up +0.9%, up +1.0% in the euro area from a year ago. From the prior month, these volumes dipped. But this dip actually doesn't interrupt the rising trend in place since late 2023 We are ending the week with the price of some key commodities like copper, tin and aluminium hold just off their recent peaks. China is facing broad pushback at the level of subsidising it gives its steel industry. The OECD singled them out for criticism urging coordinated action against them to save capability around the world. A new round of defensive trade barriers will likely follow. Chinese over-capacity is enabled by these subsidies and it drives down prices everywhere as Chinese companies rush to quit stocks they can't sell at home. The geopolitical toll on the logistics industry is starting to bite. Global container freight rates surged +23% this week from the prior week to be up basically level with year-ago levels (which were unusually high due to the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea). Most of this is due to the hikes in rates for the outbound China trade routes. Meanwhile bulk cargo freight rates eased back a minor -3% after their recent peak last week. In Australia, AI is being put to use driving legal claims by amateurs. Courts are being flooded with AI written plaintiff claims, especially for personal injury, unfair dismissal, rent disputes, and 'pain & suffering' claims. New powers are being rushed through the Canberra parliament to try and stem the flood. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.47%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$41 at US$4478/oz. Silver is up +50 USc at just under US$74/oz. Oil prices are down -US$4 just over US$92/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$94.50/bbl and down -US$3.50. Hormuz remains shut however despite the pricing optimism. The Kiwi dollar is firmer from yesterday at this time at 58.8 USc, up +20 bps. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just under 50.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3 which is up +10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$63,013 and down another -4.3% from this time yesterday and still falling. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just under +/- 3.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news intensified clashes in the Persian Gulf has oil prices rising, little transit activity in the Strait of Hormuz, and significant disconnect from Trump's claim that both sides are still negotiating. Clearly they aren't, In the world economy, and first in the US, mortgage applications fell again last week, a third consecutive weekly easing mostly driven by lower refinance activity. Mortgage interest rates eased back however even if they remain at close to one year highs. Ahead of this weekend's US non-farm payrolls report (expect +85,000), private businesses added +122,000 jobs in May according to the ADP survey, a new high since January 2025, compared to a downwardly revised +105,000 in April and above forecasts of +117,000. Hiring was broad-based they report and say it augers well going into the summer hiring season. But this isn't backed up by the US services PMIs for the US. The May ISM services PMI reported a good expansion, about the average it has been in 2026 and slightly higher than expected. Good new order flows are behind the result. But the same firms reported contracting staffing levels and faster input cost pressures. The parallel S&P Global services PMI was less upbeat, noting a muted increase in business activity, optimism faltering and employment falling solidly. Overall, it is a jobless expansion, these PMIs both say. US factory orders are reflecting some of the stockpiling effects we have noted earlier. In April these orders rose +13.0% in nominal dollar terms above year-ago levels. But without aircraft and defense orders, they were up +5.8% - still a good result but mostly accounted for by inflation. And remember PPI rose +6.0% in the same twelve month period. American crude oil stocks fell again, for the sixth consecutive week and the largest fall in this period. Over the past year, it has fallen more only in three specific weeks but each of those were not in a continuing series. Their strategic oil stocks are now at their lowest in 22 years. The US Fed's Beige Book surveys for May reported most of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts had slight-to-modest increases in growth, though a handful experienced flat or slightly declining activity. Labour markets remained tight but were cooling. Business respondents said rising input costs for nonlabour inputs were largely able to be passed on to consumers. Consumer spending was described as mixed, heavily influenced by affordability concerns and shifts in discretionary income. In Canada key housing markets in Ontario, new listings have fallen, as have prices, and more homes are selling but also, more are selling at a loss. In Japan, their central bank will meet next in a bit over a week and their Governor has indicated that rate hikes will be discussed to weigh against rising inflation, even that pushed by higher energy costs. According to the private S&P Global (RatingDog) services PMI for China, that sector is expanding on a faster basis, much stronger than as reported by their official data. New business is expanding and they are hiring faster. But they also face their highest cost pressure since October 2023. Meanwhile, Australia released its Q1-2026 GDP data today, saying their economy expanded +2.5% in real terms over the past year. But the growth rate slowed in the March quarter from the December 2025 quarter. Rising interest rates and significantly higher fuel costs in the March month likely created an environment for more cautious consumer behaviour. This resulted in reduced spending across a range of household expenditure categories. And exports fell. The unders and overs likely balanced out but the level of spending on equipment for new data centers was so large it might have accounted for all the Q1 gain. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.49%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today down -US$45 at US$4437/oz. Silver is down -US$1.50 at just under US$73.50/oz. Oil prices are up another +US$2.50 just over US$96/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$98/bbl and up +US$2. Hormuz remains shut. The Kiwi dollar is lower from yesterday at this time at 58.6 USc, down -60 bps. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -40 bps at just under 50.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.2 which is down -50 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$65,847 and down another -2.4% from this time yesterday and still falling. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest however at just under +/- 1.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of a changing of the guard. Countries are moving away from US Treasuries as a core reserve asset, replacing it with gold. At the same time, crypto values including for bitcoin, seem to be fading fast. But first up today, there was a full dairy auction overnight, one that brought slightly lower overall prices, with the USD index falling -0.6% mainly on -3% lower SMP prices. Milk fat products like AMF. Butter and Cheddar all rose, offsetting the fall in powder prices. But the NZD has also strengthened, so the result in NZD terms was a -2.0% fall. A pull-back in demand from China is part of this story too. In the US, they reported a surge in April job openings, their most in 18 months, notably in California and other western states. It is a services related thing, with manufacturing jobs not really participating. Meanwhile, the US RCM/TIPP economic sentiment survey fell slightly in June from may, but to its lowest in two years. And the US Logistics Managers Index is showing the full impacts of the current supply-chain disruptions and stockpiling. It held in May at its highest since the pandemic stress period. It is increasing at an increasing rate for inventory costs, warehousing capacity, and freight prices. In China, we should note that it is wheat harvest season and that they expect a bumper result. At the same time, both Australian and US farmers are hesitating in their plans for wheat as high fertiliser and fuel costs threaten to make the prospects very uncertain. In the EU and as expected, CPI inflation firmed up to 3.2% in May from 3.0% in April. Their core inflation rose as well. It seems to be only about rising fuel costs at present with the spread wider quite limited. Will the ECB hike its policy rate on June 11? Markets are betting 100% it will. In Australia, they have slipped into their first trade deficit since 2017 in the March 2026 quarter. Exports of minerals fell (except for gold) while imports of data center equipment surged. Globally, it is worth noting again that aluminium, zinc, copper and tin are all now either at record highs or at post-pandemic highs. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.46%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today down -US$9 at US$4482/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at just over US$75/oz. Interestingly, an ECB analysis released overnight has highlighted that after the run-up in the gold price, at the same time as the value of US Treasuries fell, gold was the largest single asset held for 'foreign reserves'. (see Chart 7) Oil prices are up another +US$2 just under US$93.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now on US$96/bbl and up +US$1.50. Hormuz remains shut. The Kiwi dollar is lower from yesterday at this time at 59.2 USc, down -30 bps. Against the Aussie we are also down -40 bps at 82.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just under 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62.7 which is down -20 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$67,464 and down a sharp -5.9% from this time yesterday and falling. Crypto funds are getting excess redemptions at present. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just under +/- 3.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

In this episode, we are joined by KC Adviento of OJT Connect as we talk about the importance of connecting people to opportunities that truly match their abilities, training, and long-term goals. The discussion explores how talent can often be overlooked or misdirected, and why creating better pathways for growth benefits not only individuals, but entire industries and communities as well.We also reflect on the realities behind leadership, teamwork, and building under difficult conditions. From delayed success and operational pressure to the value of trust and resilience, the conversation offers practical insights into what it means to continue building with patience, clarity, and a purpose larger than personal achievement.00:01:49 - KC Adviento-Lee, Co-Founder and CTO of OJT Connect00:04:59 - The importance of internships aligned with students' career goals00:09:30 - How studying IT at UST shaped KC's career path00:15:16 - Growing up globally and learning resilience through constant change00:22:10 - Challenges of having a Philippine degree recognized in Canada00:30:54 - Leveraging university networks and lifelong learning00:34:14 - Teaching VR, robotics, agriculture, and emerging technologies00:40:40 - Why senior high school and college are critical stages for mentorship00:46:33 - From FARM to the creation of OJT Connect00:47:02 - Solving distance-learning challenges during the pandemic00:48:02 - Building a model for global internship opportunities00:51:52 - OJT Connect's business model and sustainability00:55:37 - The internship skills gap in the Philippines00:57:32 - The importance of initiative, self-learning, and consistency01:00:26 - Founder challenges: balancing product development and operations01:02:15 - Scaling challenges and future growth opportunities01:04:21 - Inviting employers to support Filipino talent01:05:17 - Advice KC would give her younger self01:05:45 - “Fail hard” and trust the timing of your journeyFollow now and never miss an episode.

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the scale of Trump's strategic failure with Iran is becoming clearer. Iran holds the key cards, it seems, and there is little but bluster and renewing its military flailing he can do about it. Even Israel seem to be ignoring Trump's potency, which is another signal of regional chaos. Iranian media reported that Tehran had suspended communications with Washington, following the attacks in Lebanon, and will move to fully close the Strait of Hormuz - and open new fronts in their war pushback. We are just going to have to live with the resulting chronic mess. And that probably means elevated inflation for much longer and all that brings with it - like supply chain disruptions and logistic twists. Stockpiling, itself an indication of economic inefficiency, is the current way the global economy is reacting, in turn an inflation enhancer. First today in the US, that stockpiling is showing up in their two May factory PMI reports. The S&P Global version recorded output growth rose to its strongest level since April 2022 as buyers scramble to beat price rises and supply delays. Input costs rose at their fastest rate since mid-2022. Meanwhile the ISM version reported very similar conditions, even if at a slightly lesser level. In Canada, their factory PMI version reported that growth was sustained in May as output, new orders and employment all rose. But like in the US, this is all trying to beat the cost pressures and supply chain challenges that are intensifying. In Japan, their May factory PMI remained unusually strong. But firms there signaled further strong increases in production with sales Input costs and selling prices rising at some of the steepest rates on record. Stock building efforts are still very much in evidence amid the ongoing and substantial supply chain disruptions. In South Korea, their factory upturn, already strong, gathered more pace amid stockpiling efforts. Output rises are their strongest in five years. Price pressures persist and remain near record highs. Meanwhile jobs growth is now at its highest since March 2013 as the outlook improves. Meanwhile Korean exports surged +53% from a year ago to a record US$88 bln for the month. (For perspective, New Zealand exports run at about US$6 bln per month average. Australia is about US$32 bln/mth.) Their biggest increases were to China, although there were outsized export gains to the US. Their explosive growth is largely around their IT sector. In Taiwan, their factory output expanded at quickest rate since July 2021 in May. New orders continue to rise sharply. Firms report intense cost pressures here too, amid severe supply chain disruption. Stockpiling efforts are driving a quicker upturn in purchasing activity, they say. In China, their non-official S&P Global factory PMI was good, but nothing like their smaller neighbours. Growth rates for new orders and output remain good, although export orders fell. Input price inflation eased for first time in six months. They also have stockpiling effects as factories raised input stocks because supplier delivery times stretched out again. Indian industrial production stayed expanding in April and at a good rate, similar to what they have had since July 2025, and showing none of the slowdown analysts had been expecting to see in their data. EU inflation expectations as tracked by the broad ECB survey shows them unchanged at 4.0% in April. Analysts had expected them to rise to 4.3% but that didn't eventuate. The EU factory PMI is still expanding but at quite a modest rate even as they have the same cost pressures everyone else is reporting. In Australia, and in something of a surprise, the Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge recorded a -0.3% fall in May from April, after consecutive rises in the previous two months. The fall was primarily influenced by lower transport-related prices, attributable largely to fuel and the excise tax rollback. For the year to May this gauge reports inflation at 4.4%. The monthly cost of living also declined in May from April, particularly for self-funded retirees. The updated Australian PMI shows little real expansion with the steepest fall in new orders since last October being recorded for May. But prices are being pushed up all the same with selling price inflation at a 45-month high as sharp rises in input costs keep coming. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.47%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday.  Wall Street has started its week ignoring the Middle East situation with the S&P500 up +0.4% and enough to claim another new record high. The Nasdaq is up +0.7%. Both markets consumed by the big tech IPOs underway.  The price of gold will start today down -US$48 at US$4491/oz. Silver is up +50 USc at just under US$75.50/oz. Oil prices are up +US$4 just under US$91.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now on US$94.50/bbl and up +US$3.50. Oil had been starting to trade like Hormuz was open, but no more. The Kiwi dollar is lower from yesterday at this time at 59.5 USc, down -50 bps. Against the Aussie we are also down -50 bps at 82.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at just under 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62.9 which is down -40 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$71.684 and down -2.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

A US official said the US military carried out new strikes on an Iranian military site and shot down multiple Iranian drones that posed a threat to US forces and commercial maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.IRGC said it targeted a US air base in response to the US aggression near Bandar Abbas Airport, while it added that any further US attacks would trigger a more decisive response.Air raid sirens sounded in Kuwait, and the Kuwaiti Army said air defences were intercepting hostile missiles and drone attacks, according to Al Hadath.US President Trump said he was not discussing easing sanctions on Iran and would keep control of Iran's money until it behaves, while adding he was uncomfortable with Russia or China taking Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpileCrude futures edged higher after reports of explosions in Iran's Bandar Abbas; 10yr UST futures continued their slide amid a rebound in oil.APAC stocks were pressured amid a flare-up of geopolitical tensions; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.2%.Looking ahead, highlights include Spanish Retail Sales (Apr), EU Consumer Confidence Final (May), US Initial Jobless Claims (May/23), US GDP 2nd Estimate (Q1), US Core PCE (Apr), US Durable Goods Orders (Apr), US Real Consumer Spending 2nd Estimate (Q1), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), ECB Minutes (Apr), SARB Policy Announcement (May). Speakers include Fed's Williams & Barkin, BoE's Breeden, ECB's Lane, Lagarde, Cipollone, Schnabel & SNB's Schlegel. Supply from the UK, Italy & US, Earnings from Dell.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the US and Iran have apparently agreed a 60 day truce, pending Trump's signoff. All the while, both sides traded attacks in the region. The small number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz has virtually dried up. Meanwhile, US jobless claims slipped last week to 185,600 and by about what seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.68 mln people on these benefits, less than one and two years ago. There was a sharp drop in new home sales reported for April, and they were -11.3% lower than year ago levels. Rising mortgage rates is weighing heavily on this sector. But they reported a sharp increase in durable goods orders in April, up +19% from a year ago, up notably from March. This is where we see the full effect of stockpiling as buyers try to get ahead of rising inflation. One reason was a +41% jump in capital goods on the same basis. But excluding defense and aircraft orders, the increase was modest. The second estimate of GDP growth for Q1-2026 is out and it was revised lower, mainly on lower consumer spending and investment levels than in the initial estimate. They now say the US economy expanded +1.6% in the period. They also released the April data for US personal income and personal spending. This showed that personal disposable income fell from March, up +2.5% from a year ago, while personal consumption expenditures rose, up +5.9% from a year ago. In fact, their April PCE inflation measure rose to 3.8%, its highest since May 2023 and the end of the pandemic effect, and prior to that the highest since this data was collated in 2017. Undoubtedly, this has the Fed's attention, especially the accelerating nature of it. US crude oil and petrol stocks fell again last week, but 'only' by about the levels expected. that extends the fall to five consecutive weeks, all substantial, and coming after three prior weeks of modest or no-change outcomes. Retail pump prices for petrol are still +48% higher than at the start of the Iran-US conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz. There was a US Treasury 7yr note auction overnight and the yield increase was not as fierce as yesterday's event. This one delivered a median yield of 4.24% (high 4.29%), up from the 4.12% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. In Canada, their central bank has released and updated Financial Stability Report which found that Canada's financial system has functioned well through a challenging year. Households and businesses remain in stable financial condition, and banks have strengthened their capacity to absorb shocks. Meanwhile they reported that average weekly earnings rose +3.5% in March from a year ago, a faster pace of increase. They have CPI inflation of +2.8% at the same time so Canadian employees are generally staying ahead of the cost pressures. The Korean central bank kept its official rate unchanged yesterday at 2.5%, as expected. Updated Australian household spending data for April shows it fell -1.1% month-on-month (on a current price, seasonally adjusted basis) to be +4.9% higher than in April 2025. In the same period CPI inflation rose 4.2%. The weak outcome is being attributed to the sharp hike in fuel costs, and compensating pullbacks elsewhere. It is their first fall in household spending in four months. And staying in Australia, they said private new capital expenditure rose +6.5% in the March quarter to be +14.6% higher than the March 2025 quarter. This strong growth is largely on the back of significant investment in data centers, up +96% and a new record high. Investment in mining was flat. The Middle East war lead to a -3.4% fall in air passenger demand in April. But Asia/Pacific international demand rose +3.0% from a year ago. For air cargo, demand was up +4.0% despite the turmoil, up +11.3% in the Asia/Pacific region. Global container shipping freight rates rose +3.2% last week from the prior week to be +12% higher than year-ago levels. This is largely driven by rates from China to the EU. Transpacific rates from China to the US West Coast actually fell last week. As did trade volumes. Meanwhile bulk cargo rates rose +4.4% last week, to be a massive +140% higher than a year ago. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.45%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$57 at US$4506/oz. Silver is back up +US$1.50 at just under US$76/oz. Oil prices have fallen -50 USc to just on US$89/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now at US$93.50/bbl and down -US$1.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from yesterday at this time at 59.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +20 bps at just under 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.8 which is up +40 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$73,455 and down -1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.0%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and because Monday is a New Zealand holiday, we'll do this again on Tuesday.

Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news commodity markets are betting all-in that a deal between the US and Iran will unlock the Strait of Hormuz soon. An Iranian State TV report has triggered the optimism. (And even though the US has denied it.) More ships are transiting, but it is still only a fraction of 'normal'. However it is enough to drive the price of crude oil lower. But despite all that, financial markets seem to remain unconvinced, or at least they have turned defensive due to what lies ahead of a resolution. How well any deal will stick between the two parties who have become quite transactional remains to be seen. Certainly the US is unlikely to be trusted to maintain the deal by both Iran, and even its own traditional allies. Iran will be Iran, agreeing but preparing for another attack/fight. The one thing the US/Israeli thing has done is solidify the Iranian regime's position at home. It no longer has internal dissent or street challenges, and it will thank Trump for that. In the US, mortgage applications fell sharply last week, as US 30 year mortgage rates rose. Most of the fall is from the outsized retreat in refinance activity (-18%), although new purchase activity did dip as well. Those mortgage rates rose to their highest level since August 2025. Meanwhile, the ADP tracking of private payrolls showed the good levels continued last week, even if there was a small dip posted. And that is supported by factory survey data out from the Richmond Fed for the mid-Atlantic states area. New order levels rose notable. And firms expected growth in prices paid to moderate slightly over the next 12 months. But there was no improvement in the forward expectations, despite these improvements. Meanwhile the Dallas Fed services sector survey remained quite negative, even if less so in May than in April. But their uncertainty metric is notably less. There was a US Treasury 5yr Note auction overnight and that delivered a yield of 4.13% (4.18% high), up sharply from the 3.90% yield at the prior equivalent event a month ago. In Australia, consumer price inflation came in lower than most analysts were expecting for Aril. It rose 4.2% from a year ago, lower than the March 4.6%, and lower than the expected 4.4%. From March, CPI prices rose +0.4%, also lower in the same way. A key reason is that fuel prices fell -7.0% from March to April, after rising 33% in the previous month. The fall this month includes the halving of the fuel excise on 1 April. Fuel prices are still +23.5% higher than in February and before the impact of the Middle East conflict. Apart from fuel, outsized rises were recorded for 'housing' (+6.3%) and 'clothing' (+5.9%). The main contributors to the annual housing rise were Electricity (+22.5%), New dwellings (+4.7%) and Rents (+3.5%). And staying in Australia, Westpac has been hit with a AU$26 mln civil penalty for not dealing with clients who were struggling financially in a proper way. Remediation of all costs to those clients was AU$1.7 mln. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.48%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today down another -US$49 at US$4450/oz. Silver is down -US$1.50 at just under US$74.50/oz. Oil prices have fallen -US$4.50 to just on US$89.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now at US$95/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is up +60 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +110 bps at 82.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +50 bps at just under 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.4 which is up +60 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$74,765 and down -1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.0%. Join us later today for full coverage of the 2026 Budget release, an election budget of course. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news  traders who claimed to foresee a Trump 'victory' over Iran are getting a lesson in their susceptibility to propaganda. In the Middle East, US and Israeli struck a number of Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, hours after President Donald Trump had suggested negotiations with Tehran over an interim deal were progressing. Renewed aggression there and in Lebanon hardly seems to indicate talks are "going nicely". Both sides are in a chronic violent embrace, despite what they say. Oil prices are rising again; prospects for normalisation have faded significantly. First we should note there was another dairy Pulse auction overnight. This on saw the butter price recover notably, up +2% from the prior week's full auction, and the SMP price fall back notably, down -5% on that same basis. The WMP price dipped -1%. In the US, the Conference Board said its survey of consumer confidence edged down in May. But this dip wasn't quite as much as analysts had expected. Meanwhile the May Dallas Fed factory survey edged up slightly from its languid ("stable") state, a bit less than other similar surveys and less than expected. And the National Activity Index tracked by the Chicago Fed rose in April to its best reading since March 2025. The US Treasury's popular 2 year bond auction today brought sharply higher yields. The median yield today was 4.02% (high was 4.07%), a big shift up from the median 3.75% at the equivalent event a month ago. Across the Pacific, Singapore said its industrial production was up a very healthy +17.6% in April from a year ago, a rising trend and an expansion that is starting to rival Taiwan. And in Taiwan industrial production rose at a +15% rate in April from the same month a year ago, less than in March but still the third-best month ever. The base has been rising spectacularly for more than a year now so the outsized yeay-on-year growth will ease back from here. Their retail sales were up +5.2% in April, extending the outsized improvements to three consecutive months now. In Malaysia, it appears that they have instituted a 10% tariff on imported gold bars, surprising dealers and buyers alike. We should note that the aluminium price pushed up yet again, now very close to the brief pandemic-induced peak. Also tin prices are also near record highs, but this is nothing to do with the Middle East. Rather it relates to an Indonesian crackdown on illegal tin mining there, which has been extensive. They are going after the palm oil industry too, but over financial issues. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.49%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today down -US$64 at US$4499/oz. Silver is down -US$2at just under US$76/oz. Oil prices have risen +US$3.50 to just under US$94/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is up +US$3 to just on US$99.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -40 bps at 81.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at just under 50.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.8 which is down -30 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$75,906 and down -2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news oil prices have slid on hopes of a US-Iran deal. But despite US statements saying talks are "going nicely", Iran seems to be saying otherwise even if they are engaged in talks. But they seem to be talks-about-talks. Supposed insider information says the Strait of Hormuz will still be closed for another 60 days "for mine-clearing" (some say 30 days). And the US is adding new conditions each time the sides meet. Meanwhile, two LNG tankers have passed through the Strait in the past 24 hours. Just a reminder that the US is on a long weekend holiday and we won't be getting data updates from there until tomorrow morning from there. Pre-market activity (futures) is still active however. So first, like Japan, Singapore reported that their April CPI inflation pressure stayed very low and contained, up just +1.8% from a year ago, down -0.3% from March. Fuel costs are a small part of their index. The big mover was for clothing and that fell sharply. Singapore also said its Q1-2026 expansion was +6.0% from the same quarter a year ago, bettering the +5.7% expansion in the previous quarter, and better than forecast (+5.1%). But they are much less bullish on how the year will turn out, revising that to "2%-4%" as Trump's Gulf War takes its toll. But in Malaysia they reported a sharp jump in producer costs. Their producer prices rose +5.4% in April from a year ago, picking up from just a +1.1% rise in March. Prior to that, their PPI had fallen consistently since March 2025. This latest increase was also the most since August 2022, all driven by the mounting disruptions from the war in Iran. In China, they said foreign direct investment fell -10.3% in the first four months of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025. Things got off to a negative start, but regained some initiative in April. (April 2025 was a particularly weak base.) And global demand for yuan-denominated financing is rising, with panda and dim sum bond issuance climbing sharply in early 2026 as borrowers look to diversify away from costly US dollar funding. Panda bond issuance - yuan debt sold on the Chinese mainland by overseas institutions - topped US$13 bln in the first quarter, nearly half of last year's total. Dim sum bonds are those issued outside China, in yuan. They hit US$45 bln in the quarter, also on track to beat the 2025 level. Yuan funding comes with much lower interest rates than US dollar funding. We should probably also note that the Pope has issued an encyclical on how AI should be managed, by politicians and company managers. Like many previous Papal encyclicals, if is likely to be influential in debates about AI. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.47%, down -10 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today up +US$55 at US$4563/oz. Silver is up +US$2.50at just over US$78/oz. Oil prices have fallen -US$6.50 to just on US$90.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is down -US$7.50 to just on US$96.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 81.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just under 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62.1 which is up +10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,502 and up +1.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.2%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of an apparent agreement to wind back the crisis levels in the Persian Gulf. But details are not available. One thing is clear however, the US will be in a significantly worse position than if the Obama deal with Iran had not been torn up by Trump. Follow up statements by Trump that "It isn't even fully negotiated yet" suggest things aren't quite as close as he earlier suggested. And the headline news that one "Supertanker With Iraq Crude Exits Persian Gulf as Talks Continue" highlights how little progress has actually been made. But locally this week will be dominated by two big set piece announcements. First, the RBNZ will review its monetary policy settings and while no-one expects them to change, all eyes will on how they view the current inflation pressures. Markets have a +25 bps hike priced in for July 8. Following that, the Government will deliver its election Budget. It will likely be all "jam today" but couched as 'responsible restraint'. Credit rating agencies will be interested readers, especially around the credibility of the forecasting. And on Friday, there will be the usual month-end data released for April, plus a mountain of March quarter data released. And the RBNZ's Dashboard will also drop on Friday. In Australia, we will get the April CPI data on Wednesday, and the household spending update on Thursday, both expected to be elevated. It will be a busy week in Japan where we will get industrial production, retail sales, consumer confidence, and the unemployment rate. Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea will also decide on monetary policy. Data from China will be relatively light, but we will be interested in their FDI update. We should note that this will be a long weekend holiday in the US, Memorial Day, and their unofficial start of 'summer'. For the record, tradition states that investors should "sell in May and go away" until the end of this period on their Labor Day (September 7). This 'rule' is a warning that their summer financial markets can be volatile. Wall Street will re-open on Wednesday, NZT. Data from the US this week will limited, although PCE data, and the weekly ADP Employment update will be watched closely. As will the durable goods order data. Over the weekend the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to a record low in May, revised down sharply from the earlier and preliminary report. This is the third straight monthly decline. Petrol prices are getting the blame and it's cause, the chaotic Middle East adventure. The cost of living remained the top concern in this survey, with 57% of consumers spontaneously citing high prices as eroding their personal finances. Lower-income consumers and those without college degrees posted the steepest declines, as these groups are more sensitive to rising gas and essentials costs. Critically, consumers grew increasingly worried that inflation would spread beyond fuel prices in the long term. Year-ahead inflation expectations edged up to 4.8% from 4.7%, while long-run expectations climbed to 3.9% from 3.5%. Things may not get easier, even with slightly lower oil prices. Fed governor Waller said he supports removing the "easing bias" language from the Fed's outlook, and the next change could be a hike, even if it is some way off. He followed that up with remarks that it would be "crazy" to lower rates at this time. investors are bullish that the Iran-US war will end soon, but consumers are very negative about how all this is hurting them. Profits are remaining high, insulated from the rising costs, but household living costs are making consumers very grumpy. In Canada, and for a fourth month in a row, retail sales rose in April, but largely because petrol prices are higher. And that is even after the volume of petrol sales fell. In fact, overall sales volumes are trending lower. Canadian producer prices rose a sharp +2.0% in April from March, to be an uncomfortable +11.4% higher than year-ago levels. These changes are worse than expected. Despite all the global pressure their business are under, Japanese consumers avoided the impacts in April. Their inflation edged down to 1.4% from 1.5% in March. Food prices rose the least in 18 months amid a further slowdown in rice costs. After falling sharply in April, South Korean consumer sentiment rebounded in May, although not quite back to levels it was between June 2025 and March 2026. Still, this new level is above every month from December 2021 to May 2025 and was a much stronger bounce-back than was anticipated. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.57%, up +2 bps from this time Saturday. The price of gold will start today down -US$6 at US$4509/oz to be down -US$42 for the week. Silver is down -50 USc at just under US$75.50/oz. Oil prices have firmed +50 USc to just on US$97/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is up at just on US$104/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from Saturday at this time at 58.5 USc and up +10 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are holding at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62 which is down -10 bps from Saturday, up +10 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$76,601 and very little-changed, down just -0.1% from this time Saturday, but down -3.2% from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.4%. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news no-one knows what is going on in the Iran-US 'negotiations' - least of all Trump. Ships are transiting at trickle-pace, but they tend to be large Chinese tankers. The bottom line is essentially 'no progress'. And although the benchmark 10 year bond yields are basically holding, yields for shorter terms are catching up, so a rate flattening is underway. US jobless claims dipped last week, and by marginally more than seasonal factors would have expected. Precautionary stockpiling by manufacturers is currently driving the US factory sector. New order growth slowed slightly but is still higher than normal in May, according to the latest S&P Global PMI for the US. But factory activity has taken a step up so output is rising at its fastest pace in four years. Driving all this is the need to get ahead of surging input costs, which are spiking in dramatic fashion. But the activity surge isn't everywhere. The Philly Fed's factory survey unexpectedly contracted in May. The Kansas City Fed's survey was little-changed from a modest expansion. Both saw very little respite from elevated input costs. US housing starts dipped in April from the good March levels. They are being held up on the same drive to get ahead of expected large cost increases. Across the Pacific in Korea, they are feeling producer price inflation at disarmingly high levels. They rose +2.5% in April to be 6.9% higher than year ago levels. But factory input costs rose an average of +11.3% mainly for fuel and other oil-based inputs. And this is very interesting. After a strong rise in February, Japanese machinery orders were expected to ease back in March, and they did, and by about the expected level. However, export orders remained very strong. They are expecting the April-June quarter to just be level-pegging with the same period a year ago. But this whole machinery manufacturing sector is in an upswing phase that started in 2023 and one that gathered some real impetus from mid-2025. That Japanese factory order data is confirmed in April export data out yesterday. Japan's exports jumped almost +15% to a near-record high of ¥10.5 tln in April, accelerating from an +11.5% gain in March, the fastest pace in three months and topping market forecasts. Exports grew to China (+15.5%), the US (+9.5%), ASEAN (+19.9%), the EU (+26.9%), and India (+8.9%). The May Japanese factory PMI is still expanding quite quickly but cost pressures are surging. In India, their PMI is little changed at a healthy expansion, but they report that further expansion is being capped by this rising cost pressure. EU consumer sentiment has stayed very low in May, even if it did bounce back from the ugly April level. The EU economy is being forecasted to slow down amid rising inflation following the energy shock. The Eurozone factory PMI is still expanding, but less so, and under heavy input cost pressure too. The Australian labour market is weakening with a turn lower in April. The number of employed people fell by -19,000 in April, while the number of unemployed people rose by +33,000. Markets had expected employment to rise by +10,000. Their jobless rate is now 4.5%, the highest in seven months. (The New Zealand jobless rate was 5.3% in March 2026.) The April PMIs are out for Australia, and they show weakening business conditions. The S&P Global factory PMI slowed to a stall with the private sector getting its steepest fall in new business in over four-and-a-half years. The service sector is now in contraction after March's stall. And staying in Australia, there has been an outpouring of voices, a veritable cacophony, claiming the loss of low tax capital gains is an affront, "punishing aspiration". "stifling innovation". Since when did 'aspiration' and 'innovation' rely so heavily on discounted taxes on the gains made from this activity? Inequitable taxes on this activity is just distorting behaviour and it helps misrepresent what is being achieved. It also loads more tax on those that can't avail themselves of these distortions. They all want a "level playing field" - unless the playing field is unlevel in their favour. What we are seeing is a classic lesson for anyone designing a tax system. Make it neutral and fair to start with. Global container freight rates rose +6% last week to be +10% above year-ago levels, driven largely by outbound rates from China to the EU. Bulk freight rates fell -5.7% in the past week, easing after the prior six week run-up reaction to Trump's Gulf War. But that still leaves them +125% higher than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.58%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today up +US$20 at US$4553/oz. Silver is up +US$1 at just under US$77/oz. Oil prices have dipped -50 USc to just over US$97/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now at just on US$103.50/bbl The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 50.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3 which is up +10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,759 and up +0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 1%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Did Jane Street front-run the Terra collapse? Newly unsealed court filings allege Jane Street used a private Telegram backchannel with Terraform Labs insiders to dump $192 million of UST before the stablecoin's 2022 collapse. The firm then allegedly made $134 million shorting Terra. Jane Street denies the claims. CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie hosts "CoinDesk Daily." - This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie. “CoinDesk Daily” is produced by Jennifer Sanasie and edited by Victor Chen.

AMDG. Today we are joined by the University of St. Thomas's Dr. Tom Harmon, who catches us up on the many good things happening at UST but also tells us about the recent grant that the university received from the National Endowment for the Humanities to promote the strengthening of civic life.   Links mentioned and relevant:  More information about UST's NEH grant  The University of St. Thomas in Houston, TX, one of Kolbe Academy's college partners  Related Kolbecast episodes:  72 Participatory Citizens  119 The Hope Throughout with Tom & Noelle Crowe of The American Catholic History Podcast  290 There is No Neutral with Brett Salkeld  Office Hours with Clara Davison of Holy Heroes  109 A Lifetime Venture with Dr. George Harne, formerly of UST/currently of Christendom College  84 The Essence of Catholic Education with Patrick Reilly of the Cardinal Newman Society  Have questions or suggestions for future episodes or a story of your own experience that you'd like to share? We'd love to hear from you! Send your thoughts to podcast@kolbe.org and be a part of the Kolbecast odyssey.   We'd be grateful for your feedback! Please share your thoughts with us via this Kolbecast survey!  The Kolbecast is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and most podcast apps. By leaving a rating and review in your podcast app of choice, you can help the Kolbecast reach more listeners. The Kolbecast is also on Kolbe's YouTube channel (audio only with subtitles).  Using the filters on our website, you can sort through the episodes to find just what you're looking for. However you listen, spread the word about the Kolbecast! 

Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news there is optimism the Persian Gulf oil supply may be easing as satellite data showed three supertankers crossing the Strait. Most were Chinese. But there is still 160 tankers trapped in the Gulf as Iran now effectively controls the passage. US moves now depend on Trump's latest mood change. The latest update of US crude oil stocks showed another outsized reduction last week (-7.9 mlb barrels), and again far more than expected (-2.9 mln bbl). Petrol stocks fell too, but more modestly although that extends this decline to 14 straight weeks. US strategic reserves were reduced almost -10 mln barrels last week. And staying in the US, mortgage applications fell last week, all on new purchase applications because home loan interest rate benchmarks jumped. Refinance activity was stable however. Those rising interest rates are a market response to rising inflation. And the latest Fed minutes reveal that most Fed governors are worried too. A majority warned they would likely need to consider raising interest rates if inflation continued to run persistently above their 2% target. They wanted to drop its easing bias and signal its next move could be an interest-rate increase. This puts incoming Fed chairman Warsh in a tough spot because he was appointed to do the opposite. It looks like he won't have the votes. There was a US Treasury 20 year bond auction overnight and that brought slightly higher demand, no doubt in part because the median yield rose to 5.07% with a high of 5.12%. That is up sharply from 4.84% (4.88%) at the prior equivalent event a month ago. Across the Pacific, analysts and cottoning on to how strong Taiwan's export orders are flowing. For April they forecast a +52% rise, but it 'only' came in at +48% from year ago levels. Still these orders ran at their second highest level on record. Meanwhile, China reviewed its loan prime rates& yesterday and kept them both unchanged at record low levels. That means they actually haven't changed in a year now. In Malaysia, their exports surged on manufactured orders. They rose almost +37% to a record high, accelerating sharply from March's upwardly revised +8.4% increase and far exceeding forecasts of +9% for April. This was their best export growth result since August 2022. In Indonesia, their central bank delivered something of a surprise, hiking their policy rate +50 bps when a +25 bps rise was expected. That takes it to 5.25% and back to August 2025 levels. Driving the change was a need to strengthen the rupiah, curb imported inflation risks, and keep domestic inflation within the government's mid-point target of 2.5% (±1%). In Australia, a new labour market data series from employer tax filings shows there were 15.5 mln employee jobs in March, up +1.0% from a year ago, or +147,000 more. They were paid +6.0% more than a year ago. Obviously some of this is for the growth in the paid workforce, and that extra pay is before accounting for inflation. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.57%, down -10 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today up +US$33 at US$4533/oz. Silver is up +US$1.50 at just over US$76/oz. American oil prices have fallen -US$6 to just on US$97.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just over US$104.50/bbl, down -US$5.50. The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62.2 which is up +30 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,559 and up +1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the bond market is dominating the news today with sharply rising long term yields as investors see no end in sight top the war inflation upon us now. The benchmark US Treasury 10 year yield is now up to its highest since the brief October 2025 spike, and before that, it highest since 2023. In those earlier peaks, there was nothing like the fundamental inflationary pressure building now. And the US Treasury 30 bond yield is now at its highest since 2007. And if it lasts, yield asset valuations are at risk, especially real estate. There is already severe valuation pressure in the commercial office market from low demand. A higher cost of money could do widespread damage to these market valuations, globally. But first today, the overnight full Global Dairy Trade auction saw prices rise +0.6% in USD terms, rise +1.55% in NZD terms. This is a stable commodity in a sea of instability elsewhere. The outcome may have been helped by the low volumes on offer, down -15% from the same auction a year ago. In the US, private employers added an average of 42,250 jobs per week in the four weeks to May 2, up from 33,000 in the prior period, according to the ADP Research. Strong hiring in healthcare is a key feature. US pending home sales rose +1.4% in April from March to be +3.2% higher than year-ago levels. But the recent modest rises are not yet enough to make back the big falls in December and the small fall in January. The sharply rising 30 year bond rates will likely affect this market going forward. In Canada and as expected, their headline CPI inflation rose 2.8% in April from 2.4% in March and the highest in two years, But this is notably lower than the expected 3.1% rate and probably takes the pressure off their central bank to raise rates. In Japan, they said their GDP came in with a +2.1% (real) annual expansion are in Q1-2026, up from the +0.8% in Q4-2025. A rise was anticipated but only to +1.7%. In China, the always excellent Bill Bishop has used AI (Claude) to compare what the Chinese think was accomplished, with what the US think. It is here. There is some overlap. But there is clearly much confusion on what was actually agreed. Basically we should expect both sides to accuse the other of reneging - and in turn, the great rivalry will just fester on. In Malaysia, their inflation came in at 1.9% in April , at the low end of their expected level and only a modest rise from March. It was their most however since July 2024. In Europe, they posted a smaller trade surplus than expected as exports underwhelmed in March and imports rose. It was a much lower surplus that they recorded a year earlier. In Australia, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment survey is picking up a range of recent trends. Sentiment improved marginally despite the fuel shock, but within that more people are downbeat on their economy. The Canberra Budget didn't have a big impact though. Job loss fears are still elevated even if slightly less so. But homebuyer sentiment is down sharply to deeply pessimistic levels. And consumer house price expectations have softened even if they are still positive. A key thing to watch across the ditch is the widening sentiment gap between young and old. The ‘baby boomer' and ‘Generation X' cohorts are extremely weak (angry). Sentiment amongst ‘Millennials' is only modestly pessimistic. But ‘Generation Z' is outright positive they note. Rich people whingeing over losing their tax advantages in the latest Australian Federal Budget is becoming a feature of public discourse there, especially in the real estate sector. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.67%, up +8 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today down -US$47 at US$4500/oz. Silver is down -US$2 at just over US$74.50/oz. American oil prices have fallen -US$3.50 to just on US$103.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just over US$110/bbl, down only -50 USc. The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are also up +10 bps at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.9 which is down -30 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$76,771 and up just +0.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news there has been no improvement in the backdrop to the global economy. To open the new week, oil prices have risen after Trump warned that Tehran is running out of time to reach a deal he likes, while Iranian media reports indicated the two sides remain far apart in negotiations. Shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, keeping supplies tight. In the US, the NY Fed's regional Business Leaders Survey shows that the service sector there is continuing to contract, but now at a lesser pace. Activity has been contracting there since late 2024. Inflationary pressures remained persistent, with firms reporting steep increases in input costs and still-elevated selling prices. Staying tin the US, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which measures builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes, rose in May from April (which was its lowest level since September 2025). They too complain about sharply elevated input costs. And we should probably note that Elon Musk has lost his case against Sam Altman and OpenAI to claim the company. The jury quickly decided Must had no case. In China, new home prices across the 70 cities they reference shrank -3.5% in April from a year earlier, following a -3.4% decline in the previous month. This is the 34th consecutive month of contraction. It is also the sharpest contraction pace since May 2025. The weakness in their property sector goes on and on. The pace of decline in their existing home market is even faster. Four a fourth month, China's electricity production fell from the previous month. But it was +2.6% higher than the same month a year ago. This is a good reference point to assess their industrial production, which they said rose +4.1% in April from a year ago. But that was the slowest they have reported for an April since 2022. Fixed asset investment fell -1.8% in April on that same basis. At the same time, they said retail sales fell -0.5% in April after a -0.1% decline in March. Chinese banks now have an average net interest margin of 1.4%, according to the latest data as at March 2026. That is news because it is a record low. (For perspective, the New Zealand industry NIM is 2.3%.) Singapore said its non-oil exports rose a fast +24.5% in April from a year ago, up sharply from the +15.3% pace in March. This was the eighth consecutive month of growth and the fastest pace in fourteen years, with electronics the growth leader. In Australia, Cotality reported that 1,939 capital city homes went to auction last week, an -11% drop from the previous week, but still tracking higher than a year ago (+8.7%) when 1,784 home auctions were held. The preliminary clearance rate rose 1.1 percentage points to 57.5%, still a soft result but with highly mixed outcomes across different cities. This was the fifth time in the past seven weeks that the early clearance rate had held below the 60% mark and the third lowest result for the year-to-date. The Aussie Budget signals may have contributed to the mood.  The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.59%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$8 at US$4547/oz. Silver is up +US$1 at just over US$76.50/oz. American oil prices have risen +US$1.50 to just over US$107/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just over US$110.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are also up +30 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.2 which is up +30 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$76,661 and down -1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.6%. It turns out Trump's investment partners are enabling Iran to access the global financial system and evade US sanctions. Iran's Nobitex has processed at least US$2.3 billion through Tron and BNB Chain, blockchain ledgers started by backers of the Trump family's World Liberty Financial. Of course there will be no Justice Department investigation. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news financial market sentiment deteriorated sharply at the end of trading last week as war-driven inflation is being priced in more aggressively, because it will persist longer than earlier assumptions. Markets are shifting to a much more sceptical position on Trump policies & actions given the extended track record of failures. Higher long rates tend to feed on themselves when stress (like the Iran War) is elevated. And the US Fed is in no position to cut rates; in fact markets are guessing the chances of a hike are rising. These two pressures are pushing rates up. But first in the week ahead, locally we will be following updated population data this week, producer prices, credit card data, household and business expectations survey results, and retail sales, all for March. In Australia, the key data coming is for their April labour market, along with a key consumer sentiment survey and a key inflation expectations survey. Globally, apart from watching what is or isn't going on in the Persian Gulf, we will be tracking how bond markets are reacting to the Trump turmoil, US regional surveys and PMIs, and the UofM sentiment survey update. From China, there will be a raft of key data updates this coming week. There will be key industrial data out in Japan. And there will be PMI data out for India too. Indonesia's central bank will announce its latest monetary policy decision late Wednesday night. Over the weekend, analysts have been able to assess the results from the China-US summit. Those haven't been very positive. And it says a lot that Russian president Putin is in Beijing this week. Essentially the takeaways from the Beijing summit meetings between Xi and Trump have been underwhelming. It is notable that the Chinese have made no mention of the trade claims by the US, although there will be some. And they will be hoping Trump throws Taiwan under the bus after they stroked his ego. Meanwhile, the 'negotiations' between the US and Iran seem to have stalled completely. So no resolution to the Strait of Hormuz blockades. Oil prices are settling in, even rising, on fears of a much broader energy crisis. It has now been two months since Trump said the US would provide transit insurance for the Strait of Hormuz crossing. So far it has done no deals; zero. In the US, April industrial production jumped +0.7% from March to be +1.4% higher than year ago levels, and much more than expected. But it is all "business equipment" (read: AI data centers). This will be 'good' if it generates lasting increased productivity, but the rest of their factory sector is going backwards, even with 'tariff protections'. Consumer goods manufacturing shrank in April (-0.2%) from a year ago, construction stalled in April. In the New York region, there is a scramble to stockpile ahead for fast-rising cost increases. Business activity grew strongly there in May. US stockpiling may end up giving their Q2-2025 economic activity data an unexpected boost for the quarter. In Canada, housing starts jumped an impressive +17% in April from March to an annualised 279,300 units in April from the previous month, well above market forecasts of 240,000 units. But it is just back to year-ago levels (281,800). In Japan, machine tool orders surged +45% in April from a year ago, far exceeding market expectations. It maintains the much higher level it reached in March which was an all-time record, and by quite a margin. Both domestic and foreign orders leapt the at the same pace. Japan's producer prices rose +4.9% in April from a year ago, a surge from an upwardly revised +2.9% increase in March. That is an all-time high in a record that stretches back to 1960. Markets had expected a +3% rise. The usual suspects were the cause. Indian exports rose sharply in April, and were near their record high levels in March 2022. They had very good increases in both goods and service exports. Imports rose fast too, probably related to the rising cost of oil. Overall, their trade deficit shrank slightly in the month. The Russian economy is contracting, again. It is giving all the signs it is exhausted by its war on Ukraine, and this is despite its higher oil revenues. Manpower is a serious and probably unsolvable issue now that they have suffered excessive battlefield deaths. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.60%, unchanged from this time Saturday. For the week this is a +24 bps jump, one of the largest one-day jumps for quite some time. The price of gold will start today down -US$15 at US$4539/oz and down -US$184 for the week. Silver is down -US$1.50 at just over US$75.50/oz, down -US$5 for the week. American oil prices have stayed up at just over US$105.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -50 USc at just over US$109/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$99.50/bbl and US$101/bbl respectively. The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from Saturday at this time at 58.4 USc, down -120 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 81.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just under 50.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under  61.9 which is unchanged from yesterday, down -90 bps for the week to its lowest since early April.. The bitcoin price starts today at US$78,024 and down -1.5% from this time Saturday, down -4.2% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.6%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news commodity markets are signaling more intense stress with copper and sulphur jumping to new all-time highs and aluminium jumping to near its brief pandemic spike. Tightening supply from the Middle-East standoff is driving the cost of these fundamentals up. Today, Trump is in Beijing where heavily choreographed set pieces are play out ahead of the formal discussions. Trump got welcomed by a non-Politburo member, the first time China has done that. So far he is being treated just like any other visiting head of state, rather than the special senior welcomes by his predecessors. And China is organising one of its tankers to exit the Strait of Hormuz in defiance of the US blockade, right at the time these meetings take place. US mortgage applications were little-changed last week, but with this week's push higher in benchmark interest rates, they are likely to fall when reported next week. American producer prices were up +6.0% in April from a year ago, getting a +1.4% shove in April from March. Distorted input costs from Trumps Gulf War are embedding uncompetitive pricing in American-made goods. Only the pandemic surge has been greater (also on Trump's watch.) It isn't clear right now why American producer prices are rising faster than just about everywhere else, but history will eventually explain that. US crude oil stocks took another outsized tumble last week according to official EIA monitoring. Petrol stocks there fell sharply too. (These sharp drops are confirmed by industry data too.) The industry is raking in record profits on these lower volumes. Why the US, a net petroleum producer, is feeling the brunt of these price hikes is a classic study in oligopoly power. (And see this investigation.) Meanwhile, UST 30yr bond yields have risen above 5% on secondary markets. Apart from the pandemic spike, this is the first time they have done so since 2007, so a two decade high. The overnight US Treasury 30 year bond auction delivered a medium yield of 4.99% (top bid 5.05%), up from 4.82% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. And we should note that Kevin Warsh is now the Fed Chairman. But ex-boss Powell is still there. Given the Trump-induced inflation surge, he is unlikely to be able to deliver on Trump's demand for lower US interest rates. In Canada, their central bank says they see no evidence that AI is having a material impact on their jobs market - yet, anyway. For them, the benefits are outweighing the costs. EU industrial production rose in March from February, but that wasn't enough to counter the outlier faster rise a year ago, so it ended down -1.0% year-on-year. An outsized fall in Germany twisted these results. In its May monthly report, OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, joining other forecasters such as the IEA in cutting expectations due to the Iran war. In Australia, the wealthy are reeling after their latest Budget signaled a levelling of the tax playing field and the wind-down of concessions for wealth. To be fair, these are to be unwound over many years, but the big end of town is furious they are losing their perks. Certainly, those dependent on the property market can see an end to the gravy train. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.47%, unchanged from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$12 at US$4690/oz. Silver is up +US$3 at just over US$88/oz. American oil prices are holding up at just over US$101.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is at just over US$106/bbl, which is down -US$1.50. The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday at this time at 59.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -60 bps at 81.7 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just under 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62.6 which is down -10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$79,447 and down -1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.7%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news oil prices are still rising as the two sides dig in in the Persian Gulf with no obvious off-ramp for this toxic situation. And hot on the heels of what is being seen as this humiliation of the US in the Middle East, Trump is heading to Beijing where the Chinese are waiting to attempt to get the US separated from Taiwan. Their chances seem better because China seems much less reliant on the inward-looking US. But first, the overnight dairy Pulse auction brought little-change in prices from last week's full auction event. In the US, their April CPI inflation rose slightly more than expected, coming in 3.8% higher than year-ago levels and a three year high. Trump's war pushed fuel costs up (+17.9%). But it is pushing non-fuel costs up too with core inflation its highest in 7 months. Electricity prices are up +6.1%. (Remember, this data is from the Trump-friendly 'new management', so we should remain sceptical.) The weekly ADP Pulse monitoring reports that the private sector added +33,000 jobs in the last week of April, keeping up the page it has reported for the prior five weeks. An new monitoring shows it is not a good time to be young in the US. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was little-changed in April and near its 11-month low of 95.8. Analysts had expected a small improvement, but it was not to be with survey respondents concerned about rising inflation, and affordability stress on their customers. Overall US household debt was basically steady in Q1-2026 according to the latest update. But their Federal Government debt is increasing in cost and at a faster face. The overnight auction for their ten-year bonds came in at 4.41% median yield, up from 4.23% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. The May USDA WASDE report exposes the risks to American agriculture from creeping changes to their climate. They now concede that the US wheat crop will be sharply lower this coming season. Reductions from the EU, Argentina, and Australia are being forecast too. Corn production is likely to be lower too, although that is off this year's record harvests. All this pressure probably means there will be no US Fed rate cuts for the foreseeable future. If there are any movements, rises are the more likely. Across the Pacific, Japanese household spending turned worryingly lower in March as inflation started to bite and their households turned risk-averse. They are saving more. Household spending there fell -2.9% in March, much more than the -1.8% drop in February and below the expected -1.3% retreat. This is the fourth straight decrease and the largest. India's CPI inflation rate inched up to 3.5% in April from March's 3.4%, not the big rise (to 3.8%) that was anticipated by market watchers. In Germany, their ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment was expected to get more negative in May that in April, but in fact it got less negative, which was a market surprise. Economic expectations are brightening, they say. In Australia, they released a fairly ambitious Budget overnight, doing more needed reform than anticipated. But it is still a budget in deficit, even if less so. With some unusual bravery, they are tackling stubborn policy areas and will no doubt have to use some political capital to do so. Redistribution pain will bring howls from the usual suspects at the top end of the wealth spectrum. They have been aided by stronger than expected starting point from tax flows from commodities and corporate good health. Here is one less-partisan analysis. But accelerating cost pressures are squeezing margins and demand is cooling, with the latest NAB Monthly Business Survey signaling a tougher operating environment for Australian businesses. This April survey shows purchase cost growth lifted sharply to +4.5% in April, outpacing product price growth at +1.8%. Business conditions fell while confidence marginally but it is still deeply negative (in fact, its worst since the pandemic). Those surveyed reported that forward orders fell further in April to be down sharply since February and giving up all the gradual gains achieved over the past year. Only mining orders rose and to be fair these were outsized gains in that sector. (Later today, we expect to get the Westpac consumer sentiment survey results.) The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.47%, up another +6 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today down -US$44 at US$4678/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at just under US$85/oz. American oil prices are up another +US$3 at just over US$101.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is at just over US$107.50/bbl, also up +US$3. The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from yesterday at this time at 59.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just under 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62.7 which is down -20 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$80,465 and down -1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

What if the real power of AI in healthcare isn't the technology itself, but how we apply it responsibly and intentionally? In this episode, Ajoy Ranga, Chief Digital Officer of Healthcare at UST Global, and Ashok Chennuru, Chief Data & Digital AI Transformation Officer at the Digital Platforms and Artificial Intelligence Office at Elevance Health/Carelon, discuss how their partnership between UST and Elevance Health is leveraging AI, data, and digital transformation to improve healthcare outcomes and consumer experience. They emphasize that scaling AI responsibly requires strong governance, human oversight, and a clear stance against using AI to deny care. Both highlight that high-quality, actionable data is foundational, but must be practical, cost-effective, and usable even when imperfect. Ultimately, they stress that success in healthcare innovation comes from starting with user experience, rapidly prototyping solutions, and fostering a mindset of continuous learning and experimentation. Tune in to hear how Elevance Health and UST are balancing innovation with responsibility to unlock AI's true potential in healthcare! Resources: Connect with and follow Ajoy Ranga on LinkedIn. Follow UST Global on LinkedIn and visit their website! Connect with and follow Ashok Chennuru on LinkedIn. Follow Elevance Health on LinkedIn and visit their website!

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the Iranians seem to be sucking Trump into a place he can't extract himself from, far from his earlier claims of 'total victory'. First up today, US existing come sales came in at a modest level again in April, and undershot what analysts were expecting. High mortgage interest rates are probably the reason for the soft demand. Still, they did sell at an annualised rate of just on 4 mln dwellings which is enough to sustain the sector. Unsold inventory is rising however, now at 16 weeks sales, and has been rising for all of 2026 and is now at 1.35 mln units. There was another US Treasury bond auction earlier today, and it was notable that demand is flagging, down -5% from the prior event. This time this 3 year bond achieved a median yield of 3.92%, up from 3.85% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. Inflation's impact in the US has officials scrambling. US petrol taxes are said to be on the radar for cutbacks. And the high cost of beef is pushing the US to sharply cut tariffs and quotas on imported beef. Both are effective acknowledgements that tariffs are hurting Americans more than their trading partners. However, given current demand and supply situations, it seems neither move will likely result in lower prices for US consumers. In Canada, their central bank runs a 'market participants survey' quarterly, and in the latest of these professionals now see geopolitical tensions more of a threat to their economy that the trade tensions with the US. They also saw only a modest +1.6% economic expansion this year. China's inflation is rising, noticeably now. Today they said their April CPI came in up +1.2% from a year ago, with fuel costs up +4.6% on that year-ago basis. But in April from March, fuel costs rose +3.5% in just one month. Things are hotter for producer costs which were up +3.5% year-on-year, and up +2.1% month-on-month. These are big sifts because it has been negative since October 2022. China's vehicle sales came in a 2.525 mln in April, about average aver the past three years, but marginally lower than year-ago levels which was an outsized period. On the commodities front, copper shot up to a record high today, and aluminium, nickel and zinc are also rising at the same time. Sulphur, a key ingredient for all mining and processing activity has shot up to a record high again, and approaching three times its cost of a year ago, up double from the start of Trump's Gulf War. Urea, which also spiked to mid April, has come back quite a bit since then. Trump is on his way to Beijing for a summit with Xi, but he is going is quite a weakened state - but he probably doesn't realise it. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.41%, up +5 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$8 at US$4722/oz. Silver is up +US$5 at just under US$85.50/oz. American oil prices are up +US$3 at just under US$98.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is holding at just over US$104.50/bbl, up +US$3.50. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday, at this time at 59.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 82.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.9 which is little-changed from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$81,983 and up +0.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.4%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that the Strait of Hormuz is still essentially shut with Trump's war on Iran far from resolved. The claims of 'ceasefires' merely propaganda exercises. Rolling skirmishes mean no shipping can get insurance, despite offers of safe passage. No-one respects anyone in a region where trust has evaporated. Locally this week, the big data insights will come from the RBNZ's survey of inflation expectations on Wednesday, migration and travel activity data on Thursday, and a first look at inflation on Friday via Stats NZ's selected price tracking. We will also get the factory PMI on Friday. In Australia, the key events will be the Federal Budget on Tuesday preceded by the Commbank profit result. There will also be consumer and business sentiment surveys out this week. In the US, it will be all about their April CPI and PPI, along with updates for retail sales and industrial production In India, they will also release CPI data. From Japan look out for household spending and PPI data too, and machine tool order updates. In China, we are expecting April updates for CPI, PPI and new yuan loan data. Over the weekend, China released its April export data and it was strong. While the US is turning inward, China is seizing the opportunities of their mistake. China's exports rose +14% in April to a record high, picking up from March's +2.5% growth despite the disruptions from the Trump Gulf War. And China's imports surged +25% on the same year-on-year basis, a second straight monthly record and confirming resilient domestic demand. It is all very impressive. China's exports to us were up only +3.8% from a year ago, but their imports from us were up +14.5. China's exports to Australia were up +36% and their imports were up +20%, but that still left Australia with a very large surplus with China. China's exports to the US were down -10.4%, and their imports down a similar -10.2%. They seem to have reduced their reliance on goods from the US to now just 9.8% of their total imports. No wonder US exports are faltering. Over the weekend, the official data from the US showed they added +115,000 payroll jobs in April at the headline level, above expectations of a +62,000 gain and following a +185,000 increase in March. It was the first back-to-back monthly gain in nearly a year, and on an 'actual' payroll basis it was stronger again. Their jobless rate was stable at 4.3%. But we should remember that all this data comes from an agency where Trump fired its head because he didn't like the results and this latest data is under the 'new management'. An independent professional review has confirmed there are distortions growing from this agency. Employment rose in health care, logistics, and in the retail trade while it fell in the manufacturing and government sectors. But if you include those not in payroll employment (self-employed etc.) there was no change on an 'actual' basis, a fall of -226,000 on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Their underclass is really struggling. And you can see that in the latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for May which fell again and to a record low. The fall from April wasn't large, coming in a scant 1.6 index points below April's reading but it was comparable to the pandemic trough reached in June 2022. Year-ahead inflation expectations are for 4.5%, a touch less than in April. In Canada, their employment fell -18,000 in April, but more people entered their job market, raising their jobless rate to 6.9%. In India, banks are lending freely, with loan growth up +16% from a year ago. For all its growth narrative, India's stock exchanges are reporting serious 2026 declines, unlike most other global markets. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.36%, unchanged from this time Saturday, down -2 bps for the week.  The price of gold will start today down -US$9 at US$4714/oz, up +US$114 for the week. Silver is little-changed at just under US$80.50/oz, up +US$4.50 for the week. American oil prices are little-changed at just under US$95.50/bbl, down -US$7 for the week, while the international Brent price is holding at just over US$101/bbl, down -US$7.50 for the week. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from Saturday, at this time at 59.7 USc, up +70 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at just on 50.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.9 which is up +10 bps from Saturday but up +40 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$81,392 and up +1.6% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low however at just under +/- 0.6%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news American households are struggling as inflation pressures consume their reserves. In the US there were 181,000 new initial jobless claims last week, about what seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.735 mln people on these benefits, lower than at this time last year, but still above two year-ago levels. And there were 83,000 reported job cuts in April, a bit above the average over the past year. For a second month in a row, AI is the key reason for shedding jobs now. Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations in the US rose in April and for a second month to 3.6% in April which is their highest since October 2023. Inflation uncertainty also increased at the one-year-ahead horizon. Income expectations are up less than 3%, so on average most people there expect inflation will set them back from where they are. US consumer debt jumped in March by much more than expected, driven by a +9.1% surge in credit card debt. The big end of town is noticing. Executives across retail, restaurants and packaged goods are increasingly worried about American shoppers with tighter budgets amid surging fuel prices caused by Trump's Gulf War. “They're literally running out of money at the end of the month,” one said. Across the Pacific, China's FX reserves jumped in April to just over US$3.4 tin after the unexpected March dip, and back up in its rising trend. This is their largest gain in 28 months. But it is still off its US$4 tln level in mid 2014. Gold holdings increased again by another +8 tonnes. The central bank of Malaysia reviewed its monetary policy late yesterday and kept its official rate unchanged at 2.75%. And Malaysian discount airline AirAsia said it has ordered 150 Airbus aircraft worth US$19 bln, and said it has an option to order another 150 from Airbus. Orders like this are being driven by the need for fuel efficiency. The central bank of Norway unexpectedly raised its policy rate by +25 bps to 4.25% at its overnight meeting, defying market expectations for no change. They said inflation remains too high at 3.6% and is likely to stay elevated and action is needed now to keep it closer to its 2% target. In the EU, the volume of retail sales fell in March from February to be up just 1.9% from year ago levels. The lower volume of fuel sales was the key reason driving the recent reversal. Non-food, non-fuel activity was actually up an impressive +3.0% for the year. In Germany they posted an impressive factory order intake for March, up +6.3% from the same month a year ago and resuming the upward trend they have had since August 2025. Australia said its exports fell -2.7% in March from February as rural exports plunged -11.6%. Also, non-monetary gold exports dropped -6.1%. That makes its March merchandise exports -2.2% lower than year-ago levels. Meanwhile, imports rose +14%. That means they recorded a -AU$1.8 bln trade deficit for the month, far larger than the expected +$4.2 bln surplus and the first monthly deficit since 2017. The import surge of "ADP equipment" totaling $4.8 bln in March (likely for data centers), is a key reason. Meanwhile, the Aussie government has imposed punitive tariffs of up to 82% on Chinese coil steel exports in a major effort to shield local manufacturers from low-cost competition from China that receive 'unfair' Chinese government subsidies. Global container freight rates rose +3% last week to be +10% higher than year-ago levels. Outbound China rates are rising again. Bulk cargo rates were up +11.5% over the past week to be +112% higher than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.40%, up +5 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$17 at US$4697/oz. Silver is up +US$2.50 at just over US$79.50/oz. American oil prices are up +50 USc at just on US$96/bbl, while the international Brent price is little-changed at US$101.50/bbl. Oil company Shell announced quarterly earnings overnight, more than doubling them to US$6.9 bln in the three months to March, from Q4-2025's US$3.2 bln. Clearly more than 'cost increases' are being passed on at the pump. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday at this time at 59.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at just on 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.8 which is unchanged from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$79,843 and down -1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.4%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

SPORTS: Adamson, UST clash in KO stepladder semis | Apr. 29, 2026Subscribe to The Manila Times Channel - https://tmt.ph/YTSubscribe Visit our website at https://www.manilatimes.net Follow us: Facebook - https://tmt.ph/facebook Instagram - https://tmt.ph/instagram Twitter - https://tmt.ph/twitter DailyMotion - https://tmt.ph/dailymotion Subscribe to our Digital Edition - https://tmt.ph/digital Check out our Podcasts: Spotify - https://tmt.ph/spotify Apple Podcasts - https://tmt.ph/applepodcasts Amazon Music - https://tmt.ph/amazonmusic Deezer: https://tmt.ph/deezer Stitcher: https://tmt.ph/stitcher Tune In: https://tmt.ph/tunein #TheManilaTimes #KeepUpWithTheTimes Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Joccie talks with Alli Altmann, goalie coach for the 2026 U.S. Olympic Women's Hockey team, assistant goalie coach for the UST women's hockey team, and former standout goalie for the Minnesota State Mavericks.

Daily Snippet vom 07.04.2026 Terra Luna 2.0: Warum der Bitcoin-Markt brennen wird. Immer mehr Retail-Investoren fallen auf Krypto-Influencer herein und investieren blind in Michael Saylors Vorzugsaktie STRC. Sie sehen nicht, was sich im Hintergrund zusammenbraut. Q1 war für Michael Saylor katastrophal – über 14 Milliarden Dollar Verlust! Um das System am Leben zu halten, nutzt er das Geld von neuen Aktionären, um die 11,5% Zinsen der STRC-Investoren zu bezahlen. Es ist ein wackeliges Schneeballsystem. Wenn dieses Konstrukt kollabiert (und das wird es ), wird es nicht nur MicroStrategy treffen. Es wird sich direkt auf Bitcoin übertragen und einen gigantischen Flächenbrand im gesamten Kryptomarkt auslösen – genau wie damals bei UST und Luna. Warum wir im Inner Circle Bitcoin aktuell nur noch als extrem kurzes Trading-Vehikel (für die nächsten 10 Tage) nutzen und langfristig die Hände davon lassen – heute detailliert im Blog!

US President Trump said in his primetime address that the mission in Iran will be finished very fast and the US will hit Iran very hard over the next 2–3 weeks.Trump warned that the US will strike Iran's electric plants if there is no deal and could also target its oil facilities.Crude futures climbed with WTI crude ascending back above the USD 105/bbl level after the tough talk from US President Trump at his primetime address dampened hopes of a de-escalation.DXY strengthened as risk sentiment soured alongside US President Trump's primetime address; 10yr UST futures declined as higher oil prices stoked inflationary concerns following Trump's primetime address.APAC stocks failed to sustain initial gains after US President Trump's primetime address; Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 2.0%.Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss Inflation (Mar), US Challenger Job Cuts (Mar), Initial Jobless Claims (Mar/28), Trade Balance (Feb), Canadian Trade Balance (Feb), and UK DMP. Speakers include Fed's Logan & Bowman. Supply from France.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Discover Leslie Bennett’s insights on being an exceptional athletic training preceptor, her passion for the profession, and advice for aspiring ATCs. Q: What makes you an exceptional preceptor, and why do students consistently choose to learn from you? A: I've been practicing since 2009, having graduated from TXST and then joining MHH. I became a preceptor in 2016 when I joined UST, where I now serve as the Director of Sports Medicine and Senior Woman Administrator. This allows students to experience both the hospital and university aspects of my work. I aim to teach them how to advocate for the athletic training profession. Q: What is your favorite aspect of being a preceptor? A: My favorite part is the daily interaction with students. I enjoy watching them grow throughout their athletic training careers, from start to finish. It keeps me active and engaged, always moving and lifting equipment alongside them. Q: What inspired you to become an athletic trainer (AT)? A: My journey began in high school; I was a student seeking an activity before basketball season. I’ve always wanted to work in healthcare as a “giver at heart,” specifically with an active and motivated population. What truly drives me is the opportunity to inspire athletes to become their best selves. I also focus on imparting life lessons and common sense, helping them mature into adults. Q: Amanii, what made Leslie a good preceptor for you? A: Amanii stated that my personality made me a good preceptor. I am very welcoming and provide a safe space for students to be hands-on and make mistakes. I added that I aim to give students ample opportunities to practice and learn before they are on their own, without overwhelming them. Q: Amanii, is there anything Leslie could have done better to help you? A: Amanii reflected that she is quiet and reserved and needs more one-on-one discussions to talk through things. She also acknowledged that she needs to be more verbal and proactive in asking for help when she needs it. Q: What is the most valuable lesson you’ve learned as a preceptor from students? A: Teaching and conducting skills checks with students is the best thing I’ve learned as a preceptor. This process keeps me fresh, on my toes, and ensures I stay current with the latest practices and information in the field. Q: Jackson, what are the differences in expectations between your first and second-year students? A: As Jackson, I believes in a hands-on approach from the start, as students might not get such opportunities at other sites. First-year students receive more guided practice; for example, I’d bring them along for a concussion evaluation to observe and ask questions. By their second year, I expect them to lead first-year students and attempt any evaluation, acting as mentors. Q: What are your general expectations for first-year and second-year students? A: For first-year students, my main expectation is willingness to work. If you’re comfortable with ankle evaluations, I’ll provide those opportunities, and we’ll build from there. For second-year students, I expect them to mentor first-years and be ready to attempt any evaluation. I added three expectations: be ready for anything, be a sponge, and be flexible. I also stressed not to complain about menial tasks, as students are paying to be prepared. Q: How do you balance your professional and personal life as an athletic trainer? A: As a single AT, my life is simpler, though my lifestyle might be a reason I’m single. Initially, it was challenging to advocate for myself, but now I set strict boundaries with athletes and coaches. My Athletic Director is supportive and helps enforce these boundaries. Jackson emphasizes communication with all parties, especially his wife, using a shared calendar to manage busier seasons and ensure understanding. Q: What are the unique aspects of navigating the athletic training profession as a Black woman? A: As a female AT, I must be prepared to stand my ground against those who doubt my capabilities. It’s important to demonstrate competence in all aspects of the job. Being a Black female AT also means representing diversity and understanding the unique challenges some athletes face, allowing me to advocate for those who cannot. A downside is that my directness can sometimes be perceived as abrasive. It was tougher initially, and challenging moments still occur, but it’s crucial to document incidents as perception is key. Q: What advice would you give to aspiring athletic trainers starting their first year as ATCs? A: I advise networking extensively, as your current professional pool is small. Seek out mentors and build relationships with people at different levels and settings. Attend medical timeouts and district meetings to connect with others. Never assume you know everything; it’s okay to say, “I don’t know, but I will find out.” Contact Us Jeremy Jackson Benjamin Stephenson Layci Harrison Mark Knoblauch Ashlyne Elliott Leslie Bennett Sponsor List Frio Hydration – Superior Hydration products. Xothrm – Best heating pad available – Use “SMB” or email info@xothrm.com and mention the Sports Medicine Broadcast. Donate and get some swag (like Patreon but for the school) HOIST – No matter your reason for dehydration, DRINK HOIST MedBridge Education – Use “TheSMB” to save some money, be entered in a drawing for a second year free, and support the podcast. Marc Pro – Use “THESMB” to recover better. Athletic Dry Needling – Save up to $100 when registering through our link.

At a time when American history and Western Civilization are increasingly contested on college campuses, the University of St. Thomas–Houston (UST) is investing in the importance of developing good Catholic citizenship. We will be exploring their new initiative on this episode of “Follow to Lead” with Dr. Tom Harmon, Associate Director of Catholic Studies at the University. In addition to our discussion of citizenship, we will hear more about UST's $1 million federal grant received from the National Endowment for the Humanities (NEH). The award comes as the nation approaches its 250th anniversary and underscores UST's commitment to the Catholic intellectual tradition and to understanding the American founding within its broader moral, philosophical, and religious context.

What if the real power of AI in healthcare isn't the technology itself, but how we apply it responsibly and intentionally? In this episode, Ajoy Ranga, Chief Digital Officer of Healthcare at UST Global, and Ashok Chennuru, Chief Data & Digital AI Transformation Officer at the Digital Platforms and Artificial Intelligence Office at Elevance Health/Carelon, discuss how their partnership between UST and Elevance Health is leveraging AI, data, and digital transformation to improve healthcare outcomes and consumer experience. They emphasize that scaling AI responsibly requires strong governance, human oversight, and a clear stance against using AI to deny care. Both highlight that high-quality, actionable data is foundational, but must be practical, cost-effective, and usable even when imperfect. Ultimately, they stress that success in healthcare innovation comes from starting with user experience, rapidly prototyping solutions, and fostering a mindset of continuous learning and experimentation. Tune in to hear how Elevance Health and UST are balancing innovation with responsibility to unlock AI's true potential in healthcare.  About Ajoy Ranga: Ajoy Ranga is the Chief Digital Officer of Healthcare at UST. Ajoy Ranga is a distinguished technology executive with over 20 years of experience driving digital transformation in healthcare. As former Vice President of Product Engineering at Elevance Health, he led the strategy and delivery of all external-facing digital channels, impacting millions of members and partners. Ajoy is known for pioneering industry-first innovations—including AI-powered tools, conversational interfaces, and cloud-native platforms—that improved member engagement and operational efficiency. With deep expertise in product-centric engineering, mobile-first design, and scalable architectures, he has built and led high-performing global teams while advancing enterprise agility, AI adoption, and cloud modernization. About Ashok Chennuru: Ashok Chennuru is the Chief Data & Digital AI Transformation Officer at the Digital Platforms and Artificial Intelligence Office at Elevance Health/Carelon. In his role, is responsible for driving healthcare innovation through the transformative power of data and AI across the organization. In recent years, Ashok has led transformational efforts to revolutionize the business, develop foundational AI platforms, enhance operations, drive exceptional experiences, and develop an AI-enabled workforce. Ashok also spearheads much of Elevance Health's clinical and payer-provider integration efforts, including Health OS - an interoperability platform that connects provider, payer, and member data - as well as value-based platforms, population health management, and provider analytics.  Things You'll Learn: Responsible AI must be governed, monitored, and continuously evaluated. AI should augment care decisions, not restrict access to care. Actionable, integrated data matters more than perfectly clean data. Experience-first design leads to faster alignment and better outcomes. Lifelong learning and experimentation are essential for success in modern healthcare technology. Resources: Connect with and follow Ajoy Ranga on LinkedIn. Follow UST Global on LinkedIn and visit their website. Connect with and follow Ashok Chennuru on LinkedIn. Follow Elevance Health on LinkedIn and visit their website.

Everyone wants to be AI-first. But no one wants to fund it. In this HFS Unfiltered Stories conversation, Saurabh Gupta, President at HFS Research, sits down with Kailash Attal, Chief Solutions Officer at UST, to tackle one of the toughest questions facing enterprises today: How do you fund AI when budgets are tight, and legacy costs are high? With CFO scrutiny increasing and capital discipline at an all-time high, enterprises can't simply “wait for the next budget cycle.” Instead, a new operating model is emerging, a self-funded transformation, where savings generated from optimization are reinvested directly into AI and innovation.They together explored:Why 8 out of 10 enterprises say they cannot wait to transformHow to combine “run” and “transform” into one operating modelWhy AI is blurring the lines between IT and businessHow services-as-software becomes realistic through structured self-fundingWhat must change culturally and operationally to make this workThis isn't about cost-cutting. It's about creating a flywheel of savings, reinvestment, and growth, and if your organization is struggling with the how of AI, this conversation is for you.For more insights, read our POV, Stop waiting for budget: How enterprises are funding transformation from within: https://www.hfsresearch.com/research/stop-waiting-for-budget-how-enterprises-are-funding-transformation-from-within/Learn more about UST's approach to self-funded transformation here: https://www.ust.com/en/sft If you're interested in discussing SFT with UST, you can connect with their team here: https://www.ust.com/en/contact-us

Please join Ralf Preusser in conversation with Ralph Axel, Katie Craig and Ebrahim Poonawala on US banks. The call will take place on Fri 20 March at 10 am ET, 2 pm GMT, 3 pm CET. We will discuss US bank liquidity regulations and the impact on bank behaviour, reserve and UST demand, Fed balance sheet and rates.   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

We're joined by Jim Cavnar, cofounder and CEO of Cross Catholic Outreach, talks about “Water for Life” campaign. Dr. Tom Harmon is Associate Director of Catholic Studies at the University of St. Thomas (UST) Houston, talks about bringing American Civic life to UST. Terry Dickson, Communications Director in the Diocese of Biloxi, with events and stories from the Gulf Pine Catholic newspaper.

On this week's show we discuss the details of Ara's new home's layout offering his perspectives on his choices for network, home theater, whole home audio and smart home functionality.  We also read your emails and take a look at the week's news. News: Kodak Luma 500 - Review Launch date, channel list for YouTube TV sports plan revealed Sony, the pioneer of Blu-ray Disc recorders, to pull plug on sales Price concerns remain the leading reason for streaming cancelations Other:  IKEA Smart Home Without Dirigera: Homey Pro, Home Assistant, HomeKit, Google, Alexa & Aqara Ara's New Home Design (Network, Smart Home, and AV) Last week Ara was out in Franklin TN meeting with electricians and security contractors to prewire his house with everything he needs to make adding smart home devices and A/V a snap. So what did he do? But first an email from longtime listener Jorge Beltran with some recommendations. Jorge's email  Guys: I am listening to the latest episode on a train delay in freezing NJ.  I heard the question about sound bar vs 3.1 system vs full surround. I advocate that if money permits and a remodel situation allows it, I would significantly recommend trying to install 5.1, 7.2, or you name it. I have a full theater with 11.2 in the basement that we enjoy and I adore. But we keep watching more and more in the family room next to the kitchen for whatever reason.  And I do enjoy a lot having a surround setup there too and kept adding to it (it was pre wired on a remodel). There was a high WAF in that room, so I went with in-walls for fronts and in-ceiling for rear surround and a couple more for front ATMOS.  Yes, the surrounds and ceiling speakers are not at the ideal locations but they really, really add to the experience, even for the super bowl ambiance.   A friend of mine just upgraded his whole house and used KEF on-walls, very thin, good looking, placed a bit higher and almost looked like a decoration in a more contemporary home.  The wife gave them a big approval.  I checked after looking at my wife's face but are out of my price range. For you Ara, another friend, a latin party guy, installed 6 speakers on vaulted ceilings in the family room next to a kitchen and surrounded by windows, and they work really great. Thus, my vote for Ara is to add ceiling speakers on his vault for surround effects.  Ask the builder to wire them and box them out like a traditional speaker and place them on the rafters.  You build so many speaker boxes already, this one can be made of MDF.  Even better, build your own speaker out of parts, install it on the rafters just below the sheetrock, add a grill and you have the best sounding and looking in-walls ever. Last one, a builder friend just added in walls / in ceilings that go behind the sheetrock.  I have not seen them yet.  No excuses gents. Sending a CafPow for the extra spackle. Jorge Ara's Setup Wifi and Network decision - Ubiquiti Dream Wi-Fi 6 $350 & Ubiquiti Networks UniFi 7 Pro Access Point (POE) $180 Cameras, doorbell, motion sensors - Aqara 4MP Camera Hub G5 Pro PoE  $190 & Aqara Smart Doorbell Camera G410  $130 & Aqara Presence Sensor FP2, mmWave Radar Wired Smart Motion Sensor $58 Light switches - Lutron Caseta Original Smart Dimmer Switch Kit w/ Hub $115. I am only having the company install one or two, I will do the rest as I learn our new routine and decide which switches need automation. I will make use of lamp modules as I prefer those types of lights to recessed lights.  Whole Home Audio - Ara to build/buy speakers and connect to the network via ethernet cables using WiiM Amp: Multiroom Streaming Amplifier $300 TV and Home Theater - For the family room I will use a large format TV with a soundbar. Right now I am leaning towards Sonos Beam Gen 2 and their wireless subwoofer (Sonos Sub 4 $760). For my theater in an upstairs den I will do a traditional setup with atmos. It will consist of an UST, Receiver, and 7.1.2 speakers. Eventually I will build out a more formal theater in the basement. If I live long enough LOL No traditional Cable RG6