Podcasts about UST

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the IMF says global growth is projected at 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, an upward revision from the April 2025 World Economic Outlook. This reflects front-loading ahead of tariffs, lower effective tariff rates, better financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in some major jurisdictions.But first, the overnight GDT Pulse dairy prices came in without the signaled drop in WMP prices by the derivatives market. In fact it rose +1% from the prior event. The SMP price however fell -1%. So in fact little net movement.And the Stockholm US-China tariff negotiations are to be extended, essentially ignoring the US imposed August 1 deadline. And the US-EU 'deal' wasn't 'done' as the Whitehouse claimed. More 'horse-trading' is being scheduled.The growth steam is slowly leaking from the Redbook retail index, up +4.9% last week from this time last year. Most of this will be goods inflation.US exports rose +3.4% in June from a year ago whereas US imports were up +0.3% on the same basis. That reduced their merchandise trade deficit to -US$87 bln and back to about where it was at the start of 2024. Without the +11% rise in aircraft exports there would have been little improvement.The number of job openings in the US fell by -275,000 from May to 7.4 mln in June, below market expectations of 7.55 mln. Their quit rate fell to a six month low. Expectations for the July non-farm payrolls are pretty modest at +110,000, taking them back to early 2025 levels.The latest Conference Board survey of consumer sentiment, for July, was little changed. But almost 19% of those surveyed indicated that jobs were hard to get in July, up from 14.5% in January. This group thought inflation was running at 5.8% currently, and is likely to go higher.There was a very well supported US Treasury bond auction overnight, for their seven year Note. But investors still wanted higher yields with the median coming in at 4.06%, up from 3.96% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.But expect rising pressure from the demand side. The US Treasury said during the July - September 2025 quarter, they expect to borrow US$1.007 tln in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of US$850 bln - which may be optimistic. This new borrowing estimate is +US$453 bln higher than they announced in April so it is rising faster than even they expected, primarily due to the lower beginning-of-quarter cash balance and projected lower net cash flows.In Europe, the latest ECB survey of inflation expectations has them well contained, coming in at 2.6% for the year ahead, the lowest in four months. Policymakers there are not battling high inflation expectations.Later today, Australia will release its Q2 CPI inflation rate, expected to be 2.2% and down from the 2.4% in Q1-2025.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.33%, down -9 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,327/oz, up +US$18 from yesterday.American oil prices have risen +US$2.50 at just under US$69/bbl with the international Brent price is now at just over US$72/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.6 USc and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 51.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.5, down another -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,725 and essentially unchanged (+US$61) from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained low at just on +/-0.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with talks are underway in Stockholm between the US and China over a trade/tariff deal. Prospects are not high.And the recent EU-US deal has the makings of unravelling. Both France and Germany are unhappy about the outcome, made worse by the US claiming verbally pharmaceuticals have been excluded when the EU negotiators said they were not excluded from the 15% written deal.The big casualty in all of these deals, including the Japanese one, is trust in the US. Smartarse public commenting by the US president - even some of his advisers - means the deals struck are unlikely to be respected by the US or trusted by the others. The result isn't "a deal", it is a fluid mess.New Zealand's situation in all this will be a footnote, probably sometime on Saturday.In the US, the Dallas Fed's factory survey improved sharply in July, but this was all about higher production. New orders are still contracting, even if at a slower rate. Elevated input price pressures continued in July. Improved sentiment is driving the raised output even in the absence of a pickup in new orders.Financial market eyes are now turning to Thursday's (NZT) US Federal Reserve meeting and decisions. Despite the overt Whitehouse pressure, financial market pricing shows virtually no-one is pricing in a rate cut.In Canada, wholesale sales came in better than expected, up +0.7% in June from May when a -0.2% retreat was anticipated. But despite that good recent gain, they will still be lower than in June 2024.Across the Pacific, from 2022 to 2024, Taiwanese consumer confidence rose. But since October 2024 it has been falling. However the July survey rose, the first break in the recent down-trend. It wasn't a big move from June, but they will take it.In China, they are taking something they don't want. Foreign direct investment recorded another net outflow in June, and a worse one than the highly unusual April net outflow. The reasonable start to 2025 is being undone faster now. In the six months to June they have had a net inflow of US$42.3 bln. In 2024 they had more than that in just the first three months and even that was much weaker than in 2023 (US$98 bln) or 2022 (US$112 bln). Fleeing investors isn't a good look for China.Indian industrial production expanded a rather weak +1.5% in June from a year ago, held back by surprisingly weak mining (coal) production.. In their factories however, the story is much better with manufacturing production us +3.9% from a year ago, a better rise than in May although less than the +4.5% expected.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.42%, up +3 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,309/oz, down -US$27 from yesterday.American oil prices have risen +US$1.50 at just on US$66.50/bbl with the international Brent price is now at just under US$70/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.7 USc and down -½c from yesterday and back to where it was a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 51.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.6, down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,664 and down -1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained low at just on +/-0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news - despite the US tariff news flooding the zone - the rest of the world economy is find a way to carry on.But first we should note that a 15% tariff deal seems to have been concluded between the EU and the US but one that excludes drugs and aluminium. It looks very like the Japanese deal. And the tariff tussle between China and the US looks like it has been extended another 90 days. The pressure will be on European and Japanese companies to become 15% more efficient, but US companies will relax, allowed to be 15% less efficient in their home markets. In the intermediate term this won't be good for global US competitiveness.In a look ahead this coming week, we will get our usual New Zealand monthly business and consumer sentiment survey updates. And our big end-of-month data dump from the RBNZ accentuated because it is end of quarter data. In Australia, it will be all about retail trade and inflation metrics.And Wall Street will be very busy with many more large companies releasing earnings.But the big interest rate influence will be from the central bank decisions from the US (no change expected), Japan (no change), and Canada (also no change). In all three cases the real interest will be on their commentary.Underlying all this will be July PMIs from most major economies, plus more Q2 GDP data, and many inflation updates.Over the weekend China released industrial profits data to June. They reported another slide, down -4.3% from June a year ago, the second straight monthly decline, amid persistent deflation pressures and growing trade uncertainty. State-owned enterprises experienced steeper losses while profit growth in the private sector slowed markedly. Profit gains were recorded in many sectors but one interesting one was in agriculture where profits were up more than +20%.In Russia, and as expected, they cut their policy rate by -200 bps to 18%. They signaled another cut is likely in 2025. They see disinflation on the rise, and household consumption lower. Part of that is due to the size of the diaspora of working aged men trying to avoid the death trap of the attempted invasion of Ukraine.In Europe, the ECB's survey of professional forecasters shows they don't expect much change in the coming year with things constrained by trade questions. They see inflation easing slightly, mainly due to the tariff effects, but GDP growth slightly stronger in the short term.The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany edged up in July from June, to the highest level since May 2024. But the report was still full of cautious sentiment.In the US and as expected durable goods orders fell back in June after the May spike. Apart from the aircraft and defense sectors, it remained pretty ho-hum. New orders rose just +0.1%. Non-defense non-aircraft orders for capital goods fell when a rise was anticipated.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.39%, unchanged from Saturday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,336/oz, down -US$2 from Saturday.American oil prices have stayed softish at just on US$65/bbl with the international Brent price is still at just under US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60.2 USc and up +10 bps from Saturday and up almost +½c from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are stable at 51.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.7, unchanged from Saturday but up +20 bps from a week ago.The bitcoin price starts today at US$119,210 and up +2.4% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Ustępujący minister doznał wielu porażek; zwłaszcza podczas negocjacji z Ukrainą; gdzie został ograny - mówi poseł Koalicji Obywatelskiej, b. wiceszef resortu rolnictwa. 

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of more big-country tariff negotiation updates.But first, US mortgage applications were little-changed last week as their benchmark 30 year mortgage rate rose.Meanwhile, American home resales fell in June from May to an annualised rate of under 4 mln and down -4.4% from June 2024. This was largely driven by declining sales of single family homes. But median prices inched up, now at US$435,300 (NZ$720,000). High mortgage rates are getting the blame.There was another US Treasury bond auction overnight, this one for their 20 year maturity. It was well supported with a median yield of 4.89%. That was little different to the 4.88% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.The US has said it has agreed a 15% tariff deal with Japan (a notable level lower than the arbitrary 25% previously imposed). The main thing Japan had to do was agree to buy things (like aircraft) that would probably have bought from the US anyway. But it also supposedly requires Japan to water down its standards for rice imports and open their markets to US cars. Both of those requirements show a distinctly naive understanding of Japan. Very likely they will drive an anti-US sentiment by consumers there, mirroring what is happening in Canada. Japanese investors loved the deal - for Japan. boosting the Nikkei225 +2.2% at its market opening yesterday and ending the day up +3.5%.The Japanese bond market - an enormous beast - reacted with Japan's 10-year government bond yield surging nearly +10 bp to around 1.60% approaching its highest level since 2008.In South Korea, the glow after resolving its presidential issues has seen its Consumer Sentiment Index rise in July from June, the fourth consecutive monthly gain and the highest reading since January 2018. The improvement reflects growing optimism fueled by the newly elected government and expectations for economic stimulus.Taiwanese industrial production continues to expand aggressively, up another +18% in June from a year ago, no surprise given the strong order inflows we reported earlier this week. But Taiwanese retail sales are nowhere near as positive, actually.In Europe, there is growing optimism some sort of tariff deal with the US is imminent. The US-Japan deal is being seen as a benchmark, and the optimism is fuel by the early judgement that Japan will come out on top in that one.In Australia, economic growth momentum is leaking away. At least, that is what the Westpac-Melbourne Institute leading indicator data shows. For them, the main drag coming from commodity prices, consumer and business sentiment, and total hours worked.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.39%, up +5 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3,387/oz, down -US$40 from yesterday.American oil prices are holding at just over US$65/bbl but the international Brent price is still at just under US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60.4 USc and up +40 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +25 bps at 51.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.7, up +20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,867 and down -1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest, at just under +/-1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news precious metals prices are having a moment - in US dollars at least, largely because the US dollar is extending its retreat. The same impact is affecting commodities like copper. Prices are rising in the US as a consequence of tariff-taxes which are pushing down the value of the greenback.But first, the dairy Pulse auction for SMP and WMP brought better results than the futures markets expected. SMP was up +1.7% and slightly better than the +1.5% expected. But the big mover was WMP which rose +1.5% when a -4% retreat was expected. The continuation of better prices will be something of a quiet relief in this industry.In the US. the retail impulse continued to expand last week, up +5.1% from a year ago. But the suspicion lingers that much of this is the inclusion of tariff taxes, despite what the CPI indicates.And those tariff taxes hurt the results in the latest Richmond Fed factory survey. This was their worst result in ten months and was led by a sharp retreat in new orders. Input cost growth stayed up.The cost of those tariff-taxes on US companies was on full display in US earnings reports. For Stellantis (Chrysler) it was US$300 mln, for GM US$1 bln. Both ate away at reported profits significantly. It is hard to see these type of companies absorbing costs like this for much longer.Across the Pacific, Taiwanese export orders continued their outstanding growth, up almost another +-25% in June from the same month in 2024 which itself led year-ago levels. It is hugely impressive and continues a very strong 2025 monthly set. It is their electronics industry leading the way.Sentiment in Japan bounced back yesterday as it became a clearer bet that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is expected to remain in office despite the embarrassing performance of his party at the recent upper house elections. But holding on, he will be a damaged leader. The upstart ‘Japanese First' Sanseito party has emerged as powerful force after these elections, and that was despite a 'secret' Russian campaign to support them (and destabilise Japan) that was exposed before voting.In the Europe, the ECB's latest credit survey fund a twist towards housing lending there. While credit standards for company loans remained broadly unchanged, credit standards tightened slightly for housing loans and more markedly for consumer credit. But this was because housing loan demand continued to increase strongly, while demand for company loans remained weak.In Australia, the vultures are out targeting vulnerable borrowers who are debt stressed. It has ASIC worried and they have launched a review into the debt management and credit repair sector in an effort to protect those experiencing financial hardship. Expect the Commerce Commission here to assess whether it needs to do similar work.Staying in Australia, the RBA released the minutes of its July 8 meeting and they revealed little new. They left its cash rate steady at 3.85% at this meeting, defying market forecasts for a -25 bps cut. The move was passed by majority vote, six in favour and three against. These minutes were full of "wait and see" sentiment, "data dependent" notes. Part of the waiting-to-see is because they doubt Trump will actually do what he threatens. They buy the TACO view apparently.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.34%, down -3 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3,427/oz, up another +US$34 from yesterday. And that almost matched its record high on April 21.And the silver price has pushed on up over US$39/oz It isn't yet threatening its 2011 peaks (US$48) but the recent climb has some people quite excited.American oil prices are -US$2 softer at just on US$65/bbl but the international Brent price is only down -50 USc at just under US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60 USc and up +25 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.5, up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$119,198 and up +1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest, at just under +/-1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news China is having second thoughts about how some industries are operating with their super-competitive impulses.But first, a widely followed American leading index tracker weakened in June. The US Conference Board's LEIcontinued its fall which started in mid 2022 and has picked up its pace of decline somewhat. The LEI fell by -2.8% over the first half of 2025, a substantially faster rate of decline than the -1.3% contraction over the second half of 2024. For a second month in a row, the stock price rally was the main support of the LEI. But this was not enough to offset still very low consumer expectations, weak new orders in manufacturing, and a third consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance.And a new attack vector on the US Fed by their Treasury Secretary probably won't help.But investors are happy, pushing the S&P500 up to a new record high, emboldened by tariff protections that will bring short-term gains.North of the border. Canadian producer prices were expected to fall in June continuing an easing that started in February. However they rose moderately to be +1.7% higher than a year ago. But the rise seemed to be caused by a jump in the precious metals corner of this index rather than more generally. So the impact isn't significant.More generally in Canada's economy, a central bank survey shows that tariffs and related uncertainty, along with spillover effects on the Canadian and global economies, continue to have major impacts on businesses' outlooks. However, the worst-case scenarios that firms envisioned last quarter are now seen as less likely to occur.A parallel survey of Canadian consumers revealed a concerned public, one that saw a tough future. But the US copped almost all the blame, and Canadians said they are prioritising local purchases now at the expense of US sourced goods and services. Travel to the US is off their agenda.Across the Pacific, the People's Bank of China kept key Loan Prime Rates (LPR) at record lows during the July fixing yesterday, as was expected. The economic resilience in the Chinese economy means they are keeping their powder dry, even though American tariffs and threats remain a concern. But those resonate less at present.China seems to be taking quite broad central policy actions to transform its industrial policies. Using the excuse of the "trade-war crisis" as motivation, it has released a digital transformation plan for their auto industry alongside similar initiatives for machinery and power equipment. Within those they are moving to promote the "orderly exit of outdated production capacity" as part of its broader industrial strategy.Part of the motivation is to rein in the ultra-competitive nature of Chinese commerce at present, a nationwide race to the bottom in terms of pricing while satisfying rising consumer standards. The big fear is that, uncurbed, it will bankrupt whole industries. They already have enough problems with their property sector. They think they don't need the same in the automotive, and machinery manufacturing sectors as well.In Australia, forecasting conducted for car dealerships suggest vehicles manufactured in China will make up almost half of sales within a decade in a major market shift.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.37%, down -6 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,393/oz, up +US$45 from yesterday.American oil prices are softer at just over US$67/bbl while the international Brent price is now just on US$69/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.8 USc and up +15 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.4, down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,913 and down a minor -0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just on +/-1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with US tariff news probably dominating this week as many countries get letters from Trump. That will likely include Australia and New Zealand.While the direct effect on us will probably be as expected, we will be more vulnerable to secondary impacts - although Canada, Japan, China and the EU all seem to be taking things in their stride, better than anticipated. It seems clear and confirmed tariff taxes are paid by the importing country companies, and the lasting damage will be to US companies and their competitiveness. The forced reassessments elsewhere may prove galvanising for resilience.But first, this week will be all about the New Zealand June quarter CPI result which will be released today at 10:45am. We will have full coverage. It is widely expected to come in higher at 2.8% and the RBNZ too has said it will be higher than what they expected in their May MPS review (2.4%).China will also review its Loan Prime rates today, but those are not expected to change from their record low levels.The ECB, Russia and Turkey will review policy rates this week and there will be a range of early July PMI data out for a number of countries. But nothing really major.But crucial will be the results of the Sunday Japanese upper house election. Those results are coming in now and it seems clear the current coalition government has lost significant support - and with it they are in for a period of less stable fiscal policy until things settle down.In the US, eyes will be on more corporate earnings, with more tech and industrial majors reporting this week including Google and Tesla.Eyes will also be on the will-he-won't-he question of whether Trump will try to fire Powell. (One irony in this saga is that Trump accuses Powell of overspending on a Fed building refurbishment - one initiated by Trump in his first term with the exhortation to 'don't be cheap' and to 'use more marble'.)Staying in the US, a surge in multi-unit house building in the Northeast propelled its overall June housing starts to a good rebound after the very weak May result. But starts for single family homes fell -4.6%, and the starts in the South fell -0.7%, in the West they fell -1.4% and in the Midwest the dropped -5.3%. It clearly remains a fragile sector.Stabilising was the sentiment survey from the University of Michigan for July. It ticked up slightly from June but is still almost -7% lower than year-ago levels. But it is off the canvas because it is now higher than any month since February. Inflation expectations eased back a bit too in July from June.Across the Pacific, Japan's annual inflation rate eased to 3.3% in June 2025 from 3.5% in the previous month, marking the lowest reading since last November. Most components eased, but not food, which rose 7.2%, the most since March, a surge due to the doubling of rice prices over the fast year.In Malaysia, their economy expanded by +4.5% year-on-year in Q2-2025, slightly up from +4.4% growth in the previous period. For them domestic demand was robust, but exports were a bit weaker than anticipated.In Australia, it will be a quiet week of economic data releases and there isn't much chance the release of the RBA minutes on Tuesday (tomorrow) will bring any surprises or special insights.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.43%, up +1 bp from Saturday at this time and back where it was a week ago. The price of gold will start today at US$3,348/oz, down -US$3 from Saturday.American oil prices are unchanged at just under US$67.50/bbl while the international Brent price is now just over US$69/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is still at 59.6 USc and unchanged from Saturday - but down -50 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 51.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.5, unchanged from Saturday as well.The bitcoin price starts today at US$118,085 and up +0.3% from this time Saturday but essentially unchanged from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low, at just over +/-0.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Hello Komiks People! Panoorin niyo itong live interview ni Marbin Macalino sa Indie komiks podcast. Si Marbin Macalino o “Marbindamartian” ay isang mangguguhit at manunulat ng kwentong pambata, at ilustrador at komikero. Siya ay nakapagtapos sa UST sa kursong “Fine Arts Major in Advertising” noong 2018. Marbin is also a kid at heart, where evidently […] The post How Marbin Macalino Drew the Ang Dilay Kong Tsinelas Childrens Book appeared first on MEL CASIPIT, Artist.

Hello Komiks People! Panoorin niyo itong live interview ni Marbin Macalino sa Indie komiks podcast. Si Marbin Macalino o “Marbindamartian” ay isang mangguguhit at manunulat ng kwentong pambata, at ilustrador at komikero. Siya ay nakapagtapos sa UST sa kursong “Fine Arts Major in Advertising” noong 2018. Marbin is also a kid at heart, where evidently […] The post How Marbin Macalino Drew the Ang Dilay Kong Tsinelas Childrens Book appeared first on MEL CASIPIT, Artist.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Canada has conceded it has lost its dairy dispute with New Zealand.But first in the US, actual initial jobless claims in the US rose sharply to 261,000 from the previous week but that was less than seasonal factors would have suggested. There are now 2,017,000 people on these benefits, +4% more than year ago levels and the most in four months.After three down months, the Philly Fed factory survey recovered in July. New order intakes rose. But also rising was the prices firms paid for their inputs and what they charged their customers. 'Safe' behind a tariff wall, these firms are showing the expected reactions, ones that will make them internationally uncompetitive.Also rising were US retail sales in June. This also came after two retreating months, and was not expected. Year on year these sales are up +3.7% of which car sales rose +5.3%. Other than vehicles, the rise was +3.3% and still quite positive. However 2.7% of that can be accounted for by CPI inflation.US factory activity and retail sales may be rising but business inventories are not. And that is a resilient sign.One sector not showing any resilience is their house-building sector. The NAHB sentiment survey shows it remains at a low ebb, down near its 2022 lows. Affordability issues remain at the heart of the sector's woes, and they are hardly likely to improve as tariff-taxes flow through.In Canada, they have quietly conceded they have lost their dairy access dispute with New Zealand and will now honour the CPTPP treaty agreements. Although the US is not party to this dispute, the MFN clauses in its USMCA Agreement probably mean wider access for others to the Canadian dairy market.Across the Pacific and continuing its yoyo pattern, Singapore's June exports jumped. In fact they rose +14.3% from May to be +13% higher than year-ago levels.In Australia, their June labour market softened. They were expecting a jobs gain of +20,000 but only got +2,000. Their jobless rate ticked up to 4.3%. As a result, financial market pricing for an RBA rate cut on August 12 have risen.And inflation expectations in Australia are staying stubbornly high - although not as high in July as they were in June. The Melbourne Institute's Survey of Consumer Inflationary and Wage Expectations came in with inflation expectations at 4.7% which was down from June's 5.0% but apart from that still its highest since mid 2023. Expected wage growth fell slightly in July and remains relatively weak.A softening labour market but very high inflation expectations (and a frothy real estate market), will all make the RBA's assessments very difficult.More globally, container freight rates fell -2.6% last week from the prior week to be -55% lower than year-ago levels. But those year-ago levels were unusually boosted by Red Sea tensions. Currently, outbound rates from China are the weak spots in this market. Bulk cargo rates rose a sharp +34% last week to be back to year-ago levels. To be fair these current overall levels are basically 'average' over the past 35 years (so in inflation-adjusted terms they are very low).The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.47%, little-changed from yesterday at this time. Wall Street is firmer today with the S&P500 up +0.6%, enough to claim a new record high. Good corporate earnings are driving the mood.The price of gold will start today at US$3,336/oz, down -US$18 from yesterday at this time.American oil prices are up +US$1 at US$67.50/bbl while the international Brent price is now just under US$69.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.3 USc and down -25 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at 51.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.2, and unchanged.The bitcoin price starts today at US$119,100 and essentially unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest, at just on +/-1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US yield curve has steepened overnight on messy talk about the US Fed's independence, and arbitrary US tariff statements.In more direct economic news, US mortgage applications fell sharply last week, even after adjusting for the holiday weekend. There were -10% lower than the prior week. But they are still +18% higher than a year ago. To be fair, year-ago levels were unusually low. Rising interest rates are getting the blame for the recent fall-off in activityAmerican producer prices rose +2.3% in June which was much less than the May +2.7% rise and less than the expected +2.5%. A rather large and unusual monthly drop in logistics costs kept the overall index restrained.Meanwhile US industrial production inched higher, up +0.7% in June from a year ago. It was driven by a good rise in businesses equipment and mining but that masked a fall in the much larger sector manufacturing consumer goods. But to give better context, neither of those year-on-year gains showed up in June.And that flat recent trend is showing up in the Fed's July Beige Book surveys. Economic activity increased slightly from late May through early July. Five Districts reported slight or modest gains, five had flat activity, and the remaining two Districts noted modest declines in activity. There was nothing here indicating rising business or consumer sentiment and impending investment - pointedly, quite the opposite.Across the border, Canadian housing starts in June stayed high, and certainly higher than expected. They were expected to retreat somewhat after a strong May, but remained at those elevated levels.And staying in Canada, they have released data that shows the gap between the top earners and the bottom earners has reached a record divide. The bottom 40% of households now have less than 3% of all household wealth. The top 10% have almost half. It is a twist that foreshadows future social stresses.Later today we will get Japanese trade data for June, and that is expected to be positive.And as expected. the Indonesian central bank cut its policy rate late yesterday by-25 bps to 5.25%. They said the tariff-rate 'deal' with the US will be positive for them.Also later today we will be watching the June labour market report for Australia. Another good jobs gain is expected (+20,000), skewed sharply towards full-time positions. And we will get an update in Australian inflation expectations.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.46%, down -3 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3,354/oz, up +US$27 from yesterday at this time.American oil prices are little-changed at US$66.50/bbl while the international Brent price is still just over US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.5 USc and up +10 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -20 bps at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.2, and down -20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$119,039 and up +1.4% from this time yesterday. And that takes it back to NZ$200,000. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just on +/-1.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news US inflation is rising and tariffs are getting the blame.But first, the overnight dairy auction brought prices +1.1% higher in USD terms, +3.6% higher in NZD terms. It was the first rise we have had in these full auctions since yearly May. This time, the expected +2.5% rise in SMP was matched by an unexpected rise of +1.7% in WMP prices. Butter prices were unchanged but cheddar cheese prices fell a sharpish -5.6%.In the US they got the expected rise in CPI inflation for June, up 2.7% when it was rising 2.4% in May. The Fed will have noticed that "core inflation" rose 2.9%. Food prices rose 3.0% and rents up 3.8%. The overall level was restrained by an -8.3% drop in petrol prices. As those year-ago petrol prices normalise in future months, they won't be restraining anything. Just in time for the pass-through of the tariff-taxes. An independent Fed will be concerned about the upwad trajectory.A Fed factory survey in the New York state recorded a rise in July, their first since February. But they are seeing input cost pressure picking up. However they also report it is easier to pass on those costs and seemed relieved about that.Canada also reported its June CPI inflation rate, coming in at 1.9%, up from 1.7% in May.India reported declining merchandise exports in June, in fact their lowest level of the year and almost -8% lower than year-ago levels. Imports fell too. But strong services exports (outsourcing services) balanced things out. In contrast to China, India's rise is domestically-driven, not foreign trade driven, making them somewhat insulated from the tariff-wars.China reported that its Q2-2025 economy expanded +5.2% in inflation-adjusted terms from Q2-2024. This was bang on what Beijing had set as a target, and what observers were expecting them to announce. Strong exports and consumer subsidies helped a lot.China said its retail sales were up +4.8% in June from a year ago, its industrial production up +6.8%. So that suggests they had the best of both worlds - rising industry and rising internal consumption. That they seem to have done this all with only a modest rise in electricity production (+1.7%) would be impressive if it was believable. They are almost certainly making big strides in energy efficiency but it is unlikely as reported. Despite these cred issues however, it is clear that the Chinese economy is not going backward.But even if they aren't as steep as they have been over any of the past 15 months, new house prices in China are still falling. Only 12 of the 70 largest cities had prices that held basically unchanged however. But for resales, none were in that category. The lure of housing speculation in China is but a distant memory. For most developers that is trouble. But pockets like in Shenzhen may be seeing a bit of a shine.In the EU, industrial production surprised with a good +3.4% gain in May, far better than expected and continuing the 2025 expansion. The gains were even stronger in the euro areaSo it will be no surprise to learn that German ZEW sentiment seems to be in full recovery mode; this data for July, so those industrial production gains have likely continued.In Australia, the Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment survey showed a third consecutive rise in July, although a small one. Despite the surprise no-cut by the RBA recently, most consumers still expect interest rates to move lower from here. But they remain uncertain about the outlook for the overall economy and jobs. Housing-related sentiment dipped slightly but price expectations remained high.And staying in Australia, the RBA has reached the preliminary view that it would be in the public interest to remove surcharging on eftpos, Mastercard and Visa cards. They also want to lower the cap on interchange fees paid by businesses, and require card networks and large acquirers to publish the fees they charge. They are now in the 'consultation' phase, which will no doubt involve fierce pushback. Here the Commerce Commission has been looking at the same issues, and will report on the New Zealand changes they want to see, very soon.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.49%, up +6 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,327/oz, down -US$22 from yesterday at this time.American oil prices are down -50 USc to US$66.50/bbl while the international Brent price is just over US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.4 USc and down -30 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 51.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 67.4, and down -10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,421 and down -2.0% from this time yesterday. And that takes it back below NZ$200,000. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, still just on +/-1.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news there may be trade policy chaos, and it may get worse, but you wouldn't know it from today's data, especially June data from China.But first, India said its CPI inflation is falling, and quite quickly now, taken lower by falling food prices. Their CPI fell for the eighth straight month, down to 2.1% in June, the lowest level since January 2019, down from 2.8% in May. Analysts had expected it to fall to 2.5% in June, so this is quite a sharper move lower. You may recall the recent 7.4% peak in October 2024, then also driven by food prices.The question now is, will the RBI cut its 5.5% policy rate. Many analysts don't think the Indian central bank is ready yet to do that. They next meet on August 7.In Singapore they said their economy was 4.3% higher in Q2-2025 than Q2-2024. Their GDP rose +1.4% s.a. in the three months through June. Analysts had expected the rise to be only +0.8% increase. Construction helped drive the June result, surging 4.4%. The Q1-2025 contract was revised to -0.5%. Apart from that Q1-2025 stumble, their expansion has been rising since early 2023.In Japan, machinery orders didn't fall as much in May as anticipated (after a big dip in April), so they ended +6.6% higher than year ago levels.In China, so far, the Trump tariffs or the uncertainty surrounding them have had no noticeable negative impact on their exports. They came in at US$325 bln in June, up +5.8% from a year ago and up +$9 bln from May. This was better than expected. Imports were also little-changed, up +1.1% from a year ago, slightly softer than expected. The main impact of the US tariff war against everyone is that China is benefiting as the US makes enemies everywhere. The details by country are here.China's trade surplus widened significantly to +US$115 bln in June, up from +US$99 bln in June 2024. China's trade surplus with the US widened to US$26.5 bln in June, up +47% from May.Meanwhile, new yuan loans rose in June, and by more than expected. Typically, we see a June rise as banks push to achieve quarterly targets. But this rise is far better than even for that, and better than the rise a year ago. Helping was a Beijing push to front-load bond sales being rolled out to support their economy during the tariff trade war. In the end they issued ¥2.24 tln in new loans in June, well above the expected ¥1.8 tln. (This data never shows how much is directed to SOE borrowing.)We should not forget the impact of the consumer subsidies being deployed to keep China's retail demand elevated. They seem quite effective, but clearly they cannot continue indefinitely. Some regions are already starting to turn them off due to cost reasons, so we won't have long to find the reaction to that.In the US all eyes are on what the June CPI inflation will come in at. It was 2.4% in May, and is widely expected to come in at 2.7% in June when it is reported tomorrow. Markets price no chance of a rate cut by the Fed at their next review at the end of the month.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.43%, little-changed from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3,349/oz, down -US$6 from yesterday at this time.American oil prices are down -US$1.50 just on US$67/bbl while the international Brent price is just over US$69/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.7 USc and down -40 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 51.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.4, and down -20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$119,767 and up +0.8% from this time yesterday. And that takes it just on NZ$200,000. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news August 1 is the new deadline for tariff negotiations with the US. It's an endlessly moving 'deadline' bourne out of frustration at being unable to make any meaningful deals.This week will feature a first peek at June inflation components with the selected price data due out on Thursday. Maybe before that we will get the June REINZ data. In Australia, all eyes will be on their June labour market data due on Thursday too.Later today we will get China's June export and import data to be followed later in the week with China's big monthly data dump which will include their Q2-2025 GDP result. It will be a surprise if they have to admit a variance to their official target (5.2%?).In the US it will be all about tariff-setting, interspersed with June CPI data (also likely to match what their government wants - 2.5%). Canada will also release their June inflation result, with a more credible process, and markets expect (3.0%). Japan chimes in with its version, expected to be 3.3%.In the background there will be the start of Q2 earnings results from Wall Street majors, including some big banks.Over the weekend, Canada reported something of a surprise, because their labour market strengthened in June. Not only did they generate +83,000 new jobs in the month when no gains were expected, their jobless rate dipped when it was expected to rise. Even though +70,000 of those new jobs were part-time, the +13,000 new full-time jobs was much better than the -1,000 full-time job losses expected. Even wages rose +3.2% from a year ago, although they did slip slightly from May and have remained flat since January. Given the forces being applied by their bully neighbour, it is hard to know whether this overall June result is just an anomaly or an indication of resilience. Only time will tell.Canada also released May building consent data overnight and it was also unusually strong, up at a +12% pa rate from April. From a year ago the June consent values were up +5.1% on an inflation-adjusted basis. By any standard this is very good too.In the US, the level of tariff-taxes being imposed on Americans is becoming clearer. The latest US Government accounts show them hitting US$27 bln in June, US$113 bln for the nine months to June. Tariffs are paid by the importer and become a cost that will be embedded into how those products are sold. Treasury officials anticipate further growth in tariffs collected, expecting them to reach US$300 bln in the 2025 calendar year.Those added taxes allowed the US Federal Government to report a +US$27 bln surplus in June. In June 2024 they reported a -US$71 bln deficit. In the twelve months to June, they have accumulated a -US$1.9 tln deficit, more than the -US$1.8 tln in the 2024 fiscal year.The tariff boost for June got the benefit of some seasonal shifts, Treasury officials noted. Adjusting for those, June would have shown a -US$70 bln deficit instead of the +US$27 bln surplus actually reported, they said.The weekend brought new tariff threats to Mexico and the EU of 35%. They are moving to unilateral positions because they seem hopeless at negotiating, completely misunderstanding the process.Perhaps we should note that the US dollar has fallen -11% from the Trump II January inauguration to now. In the whole of the Trump I presidency it fell a net -10%. So the decline in the value of the greenback is just getting started this time, it seems. Holding American assets by foreigners is going to involve sinking currency pressures. And it will become much more costly for American investors to buy foreign assets for the same reason. With fiscal mismanagement rife, it is hard to see this 'improving' in the next few years.And some of that uncertainty is leaking into company balance sheets. Credit rating downgrades now exceed upgrade in the listed US corporate scene, the first time that has happened since 2021. Company cash balances are shrinking - not fast yet, but that is a turn. More companies are losing investment grade status. All this goes to the heart of company valuation levels. The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 22.3, far higher than historic benchmarks.And in Japan, we should keep an eye on parliamentary elections that will be held on Sunday, July 20 for their upper house. Given the the national government of conservative Shigeru Ishiba relies on a tenuous coalition with a small religious party, this has become a referendum on Ishiba's stewardship.And China announced a +2% increase in their national state pension starting January 2025. Because we are more than six months into this year, presumably back-pay will be involved. This year's increase, the 21st in a row, comes as studies project the system is on track to run out of money in about a decade. Until 2015, the annual increases were +10% but have shrunk away sharply since as the demographic forces have turned tougher. Their pension system is expected to run out of funds in about 10 years.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.42%, unchanged from Saturday, up +10 bps for the week.The price of gold will start today at US$3,355/oz, little-changed from Saturday, but up a net +US$18/oz from a week ago.American oil prices are still just over US$68.50/bbl while the international Brent price is just over US$70.50/bbl. That is up a net +US$2 in a week.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60.1 USc, unchanged from Saturday, but down -½c from this time last week. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 51.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still at just on 67.6, but down -30 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$118,763, a new record high and up +1.1% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Khutbah Jum'at - Ust. Ammi Nur Baits, ST., BA. hafizhahullahu Judul : Hadits Jibril dalam Khutbah.Sumber : YouTube.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news commodity currencies are in favour at the end of the week as global commodity prices get a halo boost from the taxes Americans are prepared to pay for commodities. Risk is in favour; 'greed is good' and blindness to the downside possibilities seems wilful. It helps that heavyweight investors have gone on their summer vacations.But first, US initial jobless claims came in at 240,800 last week, an increase and a bit more than seasonal factors would have expected. There are now 1.91 mln people on these benefits, +111,000 or +6.2% or more than at this time last year. That is their highest level since 2021.There was a smaller US Treasury 30yr bond auction earlier today and if it wasn't for the SOMA activity from the New York Fed, demand would have been lighter than at the prior event. In the end, it delivered a median yield of 4.84%, little-changed from the 4.80% at the prior equivalent event.In Japan, their June producer prices were up +2.9% from a year ago, a notable easing from the +4.3% rise in March. In fact, from May, Japanese producer prices slipped marginally. From early 2022, there has been an overall trend of these price increases easing and they may be now heading into a bit of a deflationary period.China's vehicle sales grew by almost +14% in June from the same month a year ago following an +11% rise in May. Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) surged more than +26% in June, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase. In the first half of 2025, total vehicle sales climbed +11%, while NEV sales jumped more than +40%. They are on target for NEV sales to exceed 16 mln units - which is more than all vehicle sales in the US. China is on track for sales of 33 mln for the full year, easily the world's largest vehicle market.The Korean central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% as expected. It last cut its rate in May.Australian business turnover data has revealed that May activity was softish, recording a small slip from April. May was held back by a fall in their mining sector. But from a year ago, May 2025 was overall +5.9% higher on a current price basis.Container freight rates fell -5% last week from the prior week, almost all on outbound cargoes from China. Overall rates are now half year-ago levels, although to be fair those year-ago levels were juiced up by the Red Sea crisis. Bulk cargo rates were little changed this week but are -25% lower than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.35%, and up +1 bp from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,317/oz, and up +US$9 from yesterday.American oil prices are down -US$2 at US$66.50/bbl while the international Brent price is now just over US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60.3 USc, up +25 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 51.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.7 and +20 bps firmer than yesterday at this time.The bitcoin price starts today at US$113,549, a record high and up +4.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/-2.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of more tariff threats, but markets are over that drama, shoving its impact to the background. If there is news on a US-EU deal, then that will likely change.First in the US, even though the benchmark 30 year home loan interest rate was little-changed, mortgage applications rose a sharpish +9.3% from the prior week, and that was a rise for a third week in a row, a relatively unusual streak. Both refinance and new home purchases had good gains this week.One reason they may be more active is that Americans are shunning international travel, kind of like in the pandemic emergency, perhaps fearful of the reception they will get in both Europe, South America and Asia. And the feeling is mutual. EU-US airfares are diving and services are being cut back. But Canada is now a hit, with other-than-the-US destinations much more popular, and Toronto especially is getting a surge. In the world of travel, the US is the only major market suffering declines in visitors.The US Federal reserve released the minutes of its June 19 (NZT) meeting. And that hinted at a developing divide among members between those who support the Trump view that the tariff-tax impact on inflation will be transitory, and those that think it will be 'persistent' and do long-term and lasting damage to American cost competitiveness. And that divergence affected their view of when to next cut rates. At this meeting at least those with the fear of embedded inflation won out and rates were left unchanged. But financial markets have priced in two more -25 bps rate cuts later this year.At least one of their number are in a broader Apprentice-style competition for Powell's job - Christopher Waller.There was another US Treasury bond auction overnight, for their 10 year maturity, and it was normally supported. It delivered an median yield of 4.31% compared to the 4.38% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.Across the Pacific, Japanese machine tool orders rose in June from May, maintaining their better level in a trend that started in March. And it was demand from domestic manufacturers that were especially strong. Even though in total they were just marginally less than a year ago, that year ago benchmark was unusually strong for a 2024 month.The heart of the northern hemisphere holiday season is underway and financial market activity is lighter than usual. This period will likely last until the end of August, culminating at the American Labor Day long weekend.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.34%, and down -8 bps from yesterday.And we should note that Nvidia has become the first company to command an equity valuation of US$4 tln.The price of gold will start today at US$3,308/oz, and up a mere +US$2 from yesterday.American oil prices are unchanged at US$68.50/bbl while the international Brent price is still just under US$70.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is still just on 60 USc, essentially unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 91.7 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 51.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.5 and -10 bps lower from yesterday at this time.The bitcoin price starts today at US$109,140 and virtually unchanged (+0.1%) from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news US tariff threats are shifting from being aimed at trading 'partners' to a focus on commodities, today especially copper. Protection of favoured US business interests is the goal, cloaked in the labels of 'national security'.But first up today, the overnight dairy Pulse auction delivered less change than expected, essentially holding on to the SMP and WMP prices at the prior week's full auction. But in the meantime the NZD has retreated so both delivered good gains in NZD, up +1.1% for SMP and up +3.1% for WMP.The US retail impulse as measured by the Redbook survey delivered a very good +5.9% gain over the same week a year ago, but it should be noted that earlier base week was an unusual down one.And the New York Fed's national survey of consumer inflation expectations returned to a 'normal' 3% in June, and a five month low. But some components remain a worry. Those surveyed thing food prices will rise 5.5%, rents will rise +9.1% and medical care by +9.3%Meanwhile the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June was little changed at it long run levelThe popular US Treasury three year bond auction delivered unchanged demand and little-change on the median yields achieved. Today that came in at 3.84%, whereas the equivalent event a month ago was at 3.92%.US consumer debt grew a very modest +US$5 bln in May, half the expansion in April and well below the average for the past year. The slowdown was very acute for revolving debt, like credit cards.In Canada, the widely-watched local PMI turned positive in June following two toughish months.In Germany, both exports and imports were expected to decline in May from April, and they did, but by slightly more than was expected. But both remain higher than year ago levels.In Australia, the widely watched NAB business sentiment survey picked up and that was a much better outcome than the contraction expected. In fact this June result for business conditions broke the mould of the long-running decline that started in June 2022.That survey didn't point to anything special in terms of cost pressures. But those cost pressures clearly worried the RBA when it surprised financial markets with its no-change decision yesterday. The widely-expected rate cut didn't happen and so household budgets will have to wait for more relief. The RBA did pick up the resilience in the overall economy, but judged it too early to respond to perceptions of economic weaknesses. In fact they saw the balance of risks from trade and labour market cost activity not requiring a boost from a cut in interest rates.We should note that US tariff uncertainty is screwing around with some key commodity prices, especially copper, which has soared over the past day or so to over US$12,000/tonne and easily a new record high. Some US futures contracts are now up over US$13,000/tonne. US products that use copper are going to get a cost jolt. Because it is a jolt directly related to a new US tariff-tax, it won't affect products made outside the US.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.42%, and up another +3 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,306/oz, and down -US$25 from yesterday.American oil prices are up another +US$1 at just under US$68.50/bbl while the international Brent price is now just under US$70.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60 USc, little-changed from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -50 bps at 91.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 51.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.6 and -10 bps lower from yesterday at this time.The bitcoin price starts today at US$109,015 and up +1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/-2.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

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Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news financial markets have turned cautious, unsure of what to make of the set of 'tariff letters'.In Washington, because they couldn't complete tariff deals in the "90 deals in 90 days" to July 9, they have moved the 'deadline' to August 1. The shambles extends. And the capricious tariff letters are starting to be issued, first to Japan and South Korea at 25%, and then a bunch of developing countries including Malaysia (25%) and South Africa (30%).Essentially, the US is pushing countries into China's orbit, and creating conditions where many will shy away from buying US goods due to the bald insult. US businesses are likely to suffer, not only from financial market reactions, but also on the demand front. Other governments' trust in the US is in free-fall.Separately, we can also report that the NY Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure index was neutral in June, back to its long run 'normal level'. That amounts to an easing of the May pressure as the rush to beat the tariff-taxes faded.Across the Pacific, China said its foreign exchange reserves rose by +US$32 bln to US$3.317 tln in June and that is the highest level they have had in nearly ten years (December 2015).Singapore's foreign exchange reserves stayed very high in June, even if they did dip marginally from their record high level in May.In the EU, they report retail sales by volume (inflation adjusted) and it slipped in May from April. But it stayed higher than year-ago levels although by less than +1%.Meanwhile, Germany reported its May industrial production turned up and by much more than expected. Although to be fair, it is in a bit of an overall yoyo pattern. Still, on a volume basis it too is +1.0% higher than year ago levels.So overall, even though some of it is over a month old, this set of second tier data, from the US, to Asia, to Europe isn't painting a picture of special stress.How the Australian central bank see it will be revealed later today when the RBA issues its decision on its cash rate target. Market pricing has only two-thirds of a -25 bps cut priced in although most economists think it will happen, and take their policy rate down from 3.85% to 3.60%. That will flow through to homeowner's household budgets quickly because most have variable rate deals.However it its far from certain this will give the Aussie domestic economy the boost a rate cut should deliver. It almost certainly will juice up house prices, which are already rising in anticipation. But existing borrowers seem to have decided en masse that the cash gains from lower rates will be used to pay down debt rather than be spent in generating more economic activity, which is why the RBA is cutting. To get that effect, the central bank may have to cut again later in the year. There are reviews in August, September, November and December yet to come, so plenty of opportunities for more cuts.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.39%, and up +6 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,332/oz, and down -US$4 from yesterday.American oil prices are up +US$1 at just under US$67.50/bbl while the international Brent price is now just over US$69/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60 USc, down an outsized -60 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 92.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 51.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 67.7 and -30 bps lower from yesterday at this time.The bitcoin price starts today at US$107,923 and down -0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained low at just on +/-0.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world is working out how live with a capricious America.First though, the week ahead will feature Wednesday afternoon's OCR review from the RBNZ, preceded Tuesday by the RBA's cash rate review. The Aussies are expected to cut their rate by -25 bps to 3.60% but the RBNZ is expected to hold at 3.25%. We will be covering the outcomes and implications of both reviews.Both Malaysia and South Korea will also be reviewing their official rates. The Malaysian will likely leave their rate unchanged at 3.00%, and the South Koreans are expected to cut theirs by -25 bps to 2.25%.In the US, apparently negotiating trade deals is complicated (who knew?) so Trump is dispensing with all that and just "sending letters" unilaterally. "90 deals in 90 days" is too hard for him. He might have got one over the line with Vietnam (he claims but the Vietnamese haven't confirmed). He sort of got one with the UK but before the 90 day clock started. And the China one he claims leaves the US in a worse position. His Treasury Secretary is promising "a few more" over the next few days and weeks. "Best deal maker of all time".And we should probably note that the integrity of official US data, from the Census Bureau, the BLS and the BEA, all now under Trump control (in the Lutnick Commerce Department), is getting increasingly questioned. Sharp budget cutbacks is resulting in fewer actual surveys, more 'estimates by officials'. Even Fed boss Powell expressed concern over the issue in questioning at the recent Congressional testimony. The data reporters are moving to a "Make Trump Look Good" approach.Suspicion is rising because there are widespread indications tariff-tax price increases are being pushed through but the BLS data isn't reflecting that.In China we will get CPI and PPI updates for June later this week. It would be supremely ironic if users came to view Chinese economic data was more trustworthy than American. It no longer seems far-fetched.Across the Pacific in Japan, household spending jumped +4.7% in May from a year ago, reversing a -0.1% fall in April and far exceeding an expected +1.2% rise. It was their fastest growth since August 2022, and that August 2022 was only good because it was off the very weak pandemic-affected base a year earlier.Singaporean retail sales rose by +1.4% in May from a year ago, accelerating from a downwardly revised +0.2% rise in April. This was the third straight month of growth and the fastest annual increase since January. But to be fair, most of the increase was driven by car sales, a very expensive and exclusive corner of their retail sector.Next, halfway around the world, EU producer prices eased again in May so that it is only +0.4% higher than year ago levels, less in the euro area. The past three months have delivered producer prices lower than in each of the prior months.German factory orders dropped by -1.4% in May from April and that was weaker than expected, but the April gain was revised higher. The May weakness however came after some very large-scale computer, electronic and optical orders in April. From a year ago, these factory orders were up +5.3%.And we should probably note that EU house prices are rising, up +5.7% from a year ago led by 10%-plus gains in Portugal (+16%), Bulgaria (+15%), Croatia (+13%), Slovakia (+12%), Hungary (+12%), and Spain (+12%).In Australia, household spending rose in May and by more than expected with a good recovery from a weak month in April. This spending was up +4.2% from May a year ago. It was their best gain in 7 months.The FAO food price index was little-changed in June from May, holding its gains from a year ago. Within that, both meat and dairy prices rose.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.33%, and unchanged from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,336/oz, and unchanged from Saturday.American oil prices are unchanged at just under US$66.50/bbl while the international Brent price is also little-changed at just under US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60.6 USc, unchanged from Saturday. For the week it is up +20 bps. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 92.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 51.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 68 and up +10 bps from yesterday, and unchanged for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,921 and up +1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US budget bill has now been approved by Congress setting up a big shift in fortunes for big business at the expense of those on low incomes - and handing their future generations a substantially larger deficit headache. In fact, one so large, it will impact the global economy.In the US, they are about to have another national public holiday, Independence Day, so there has been an early data dump there in advance.US non-farm payrolls expanded +147,000 in June, very similar to the May expansion and better than the expected +110,000. The variance from yesterday's ADP Employment Report will raise a few questions. Average weekly earnings went down in June from May, but were up +3.4% from a year ago. In May that annual gain was +3.8% so this metric is tightening. Month on month decreases have happened before but they are relatively infrequent and usually indicate overtime earnings are drying up.US initial jobless claims came in a 231,500 has week and similar to what was expected, taking the continuing claims level to 1.91 mln, +90,000 higher than year ago levels.These two labour market reports probably take pressure off the Fed to cut their policy rate at their next review at the very end of this month.US exports fell -4.0% in May whereas imports dipped a minor -0.1%. That saw their trade deficit rise from the prior month but stay considerably lower than the same month a year ago.US services exports dipped in the month. But locally the June ISM service sector PMI improved from its tiny May decline to a small June expansion. The S&P Global/Markit services PMI told a similar story. But both noted the rising cost worries.May American factory order levels were up sharply in May from April, to be +3.2% higher than year-ago levels. But aircraft orders drove the rise and without that the year-on-year gain was just +0.2% and far less than can be accounted for by inflation. Even the month-on-month gain without aircraft wasn't significant, but at least it was a gain.And Trump's boast he will do "90 deals in 90 days" resulting from his tariff pressure looks like it will fall completely flat. The US has announced one, with Vietnam, but the Vietnamese will only say they are still working through the details. The talks on all the others are dragging on inconclusively.In Canada, their export and import data for May was little-changed overall. But in fact that hides some pretty significant shifts. Their trade with the US fell a lot, and they how have the smallest share going to the US since 1997, twenty eight years ago. In short order, Canadians have managed to reorient their trade to others successfully.Across the Pacific, analysts had expected the Caixin services PMI for China to maintain its small but steady expansion. But it weakened. Not a lot, and it is still expanding, but it will be disconcerting all the same. And it is now at a nine month low.Surprising analysts who expected a +AU$5 bln monthly trade surplus, the actual Australian trade surplus for May came in at half that level, to its lowest level in five years. May exports fell faster, down -2.7% from April while May imports rose faster, up +3.8% from April. Interestingly, exports of gold are down -3.4% in May from a year ago - and that is in AU$ terms, not volume.Container freight rates fell -5.7% last week from the prior week to be -45% lower than year ago levels. Trans-Pacific rates fell -15% as the trade war crimps these supply chains. Bulk freight rates fell -13% in the past week and are now -33% lower than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.34%, and up +5 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,326/oz, and down -US$20 from yesterday.American oil prices are little-changed at just under US$67/bbl while the international Brent price is down -50 USc at just over US$68.50/bbl. Last week's North American rig counts took an unusually sharp dip. There is certainly no evidence yet that investors are piling in to drill more aggressively.The Kiwi dollar is now just under 60.7 USc, down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 92.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 68 and down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$109,173 and up +0.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/-0.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

In this episode, Elsa, Peter, and Blake discuss the weakening of the USD, the outlook for the Fed and UST markets as well as the cross implications of both developments on the ECB and European rates.Participants: Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the financial markets are awaiting the reconciliation of the US budget bill between the Senate and House versions. And they are waiting for news of "the countries lining up to make a [tariff] deal". There only seems to be one, Vietnam, and the details of that 'deal' remain murky.Meanwhile, American home loan interest rates fell last week to a three month low and that brought a surge in refinancing, although applications for a new mortgage were basically unchanged at a low level. That resulted in the total volume of mortgage applications rising by +2.7% last week from the prior week.Monitored job cuts in June shows it a relatively quiet month with 47,000 layoffs recorded. So far in 2025, the retail sector has cut the most private-sector jobs this year with 80,000 lost, hit by tariffs, inflation, and uncertainty. The expected DOGE cuts aren't as prominent yet due to the ongoing legal action uncertainty.But in contract, the US ADP Employment Report recorded a shrinkage in private payrolls in June by -33,000 when a +95,000 gain was expected. That's a big miss. This is a precursor for tomorrow's non-farm payrolls report for June which is expected to show a low +110,000 jobs gain. And while the ADP Report has a spotty track record matching the official data, you would have to suspect there are downside risks to the non-farm payroll estimates.Whatever the actual data shows, it seems pretty clear the stuffing is being knocked out of the once-strong engine of the US economy. 2025 is shaping up to be their weakest jobs growth since at least 2015 (pandemic excepted).US vehicle sales are also easing, down to a 15.3 mln annual rate and well below the March rate of 17.8 mln. The pre-tariff surge has created a shadow. But few analysts think it will rise much, mainly because of the tariff taxes.We don't have the equivalent China vehicle sales data yet but it will be very much higher (32.7 mln in the year to May), However they have their own problems of very rapid innovation and obsolescence, and worrying viability of large parts of their industry. Xiaomi's sudden entry into this sector is causing an existential shock for its rivals.Singapore's manufacturing PMI inched up out of contraction in June from May, snapping a two-month retreat as firms likely front-loaded orders ahead of looming American tariff deadlines. The recovery was primarily driven by faster expansion in new orders, new exports, and input purchases.In Australia, retail sales rose marginally in May to be +3.3% higher than year-ago levels. For context, Australian CPI was up +2.4% in the year to March, up +2.1% in their monthly inflation indicator for the year to May. So they have been getting 'real' volume increases although that may have faded recently. And this recent fade may bolster the case for a July 8 RBA rate cut.Meanwhile Australian building consents stopped falling in May as they had done in April, and are now +6.5% higher than May 2024. Multi-unit buildings are back driving the increase. The RBA's May 21 rate cut is getting the credit.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.29%, and up +4 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,347/oz, and up +US$10 from yesterday.American oil prices are much firmer from yesterday, up +US$1.50 at just over US$67/bbl while the international Brent price is up the same at just under US$69/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60.8 USc, down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 92.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down the same at 51.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68.1 and also down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$109,025 and up +2.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/-1.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US Senate has agreed the Trump budget, but only after the Vice President broke a deadlock with a casting vote. Financial markets are wondering about the wisdom in all this with equities hesitating, bond yields turning up, and the USD drifting lower. To be fair, none of these movements are large today. But the implications of massively higher US debt levels are as is the opening of the magic-money accounting they have adopted. It will be the bond market that makes the practical judgement.First however, the overnight dairy auction came in as weak as the futures market suggested it might. The SMP price fell -1.7%, but only to match the prior week's Pulse event. However the more important WMP price fell -5.1% and back to levels last seen at the beginning of the year. One local reason may have been the sharp increase in volumes offered, +10,000 tonnes more than at the prior event two weeks ago, and +6.7% more than the event in the same week a year ago. This volume offer jump came as milk production rose in all key producing regions (except Australia).Overall, prices were down -4.1% in USD terms at this even, down -5.2% in NZD as the greenback weakens further.The price downshift will have analysts reaching for their pencils although it might be too soon for them to backtrack on their 2025/26 payout forecasts. Fonterra's current season results are pretty much locked in and will be reported in late September. But their new year may be off to a soft start.Last week, the US Redbook index was +4.9% higher than year ago levels but still in the easing trend that started in early April.The May level of job openings rose unexpectedly to more than 7.7 mln largely on a surge for foodservice jobs. Analysts didn't see this coming but perhaps they should have given the sharp ICE immigration crackdowns underway. These roles at these volumes will be hard to fill.The latest factory PMI report from the ISM shows a sector still in contraction, being led by weak new order inflows. The internationally benchmarked S&P Global/Markit version reported an expansion and a moderate one at that, But both noted rising inflation pressures.It appears that the expected rise in June car sales didn't occur, dipping to its slowest pace of the year.Apparently its a good time to be in the logistics sector in the US with inventory levels rising and supply chains being stressed. The Logistics Managers Index is running at an unusually high level.The Dallas Fed regional services survey reported a continuing contraction, although not as steep in June as May.And the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index was expected to bounce back in July but in fact it resumed the decline in a trend that started in December 2024.After falling to a recent low in April, Japanese consumer sentiment is on the rise again, back to where it was at the start of the year, but not yet back to 2024 levels. But at least it is rising.Yesterday we noted that the official factory PMI for China "improved" but was still showing a contraction. Today, the alternative Caixin factory PMI came in a little better than that, rising from May's tiney contraction to June's small expansion. These shifts don't mean a lot, but at least they are going in an improved direction. The Caixin survey noted "Higher new order inflows supported a renewed rise in production. That said, the rate at which new orders expanded was only marginal amid subdued exports." Trump's trade war may have kneecapped Chinese growth but it hasn't knocked them over.Overnight the ECB released the results of its May survey of consumer inflation expectations and they dipped to 2.8% when a small rise was expected. Consumers apparently thought inflation was running at 3.1% over the past 12 months. Separately the EU released its June CPI data and that shows it running at 2.0%, up from 1.9% in May.In Australia, large parts of the east cost is hunkering down for a lashing of strong winds and heavy rain. And that will include Sydney.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, and up +2 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,337/oz, and up +US$45 from yesterday.American oil prices are marginally firmer from yesterday, up +50 USc at just on US$65.50/bbl while the international Brent price is up the same at just over US$67/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60.9 USc, unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 92.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down the same at 51.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68.2 and unchanged from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$106,292 and down -1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has stayed low at just over +/-0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US budget debate has financial markets on edge.But first up today, the Chicago PMI did not report the expected modest bounceback in June from the very weak May result. In fact is stayed in a severe contraction, disappointing everyone involved. It's been nearly three years since they have had any regular expansion and 2025 looks like it is shaping up the be the worst of the three.The Dallas Fed's factory survey for June was weak as well featuring shrinking new order levels. At least it was little-changed from May.As you read this, the US Senate is debating, and about to vote, on the big Trump budget bill. After years of complaining about US deficit spending and refusing to move the debt ceiling law, they are weighing whether to accede to Trump's demand to give him a free pass on both, including 'hiding' US$3.8 tln of tax cut costs. If they pass the budget, it is likely the bond market will deliver a thumbs down response, one that will affect global financial markets.On the US tariff trade bullying, there are few negotiations going well at present, for any of the parties involved.In Canada, they seem to have conceded the digital services tax issue to try and make progress on bigger issues. But the DST is still a live issue in the UK-US talks.Meanwhile, things are softening in India too. Their industrial production was up +1.2% in May from the same month in 2024, their weakest expansion in nine months and well weaker than expected.In China, there were no surprises and little movement in their official PMIs for June. Their factory sector contracted very marginally - again - and the services sector expanded marginally, also again. Basically they describe an economy marking time. But also one resilient to the trade shocks thrown at it which were designed to throw it off balance. That just hasn't happened, yet anyway.German inflation came in at 2.0% in June, a touch less than anticipated and little-different from April and May's 2.1% level. As small as it was, they weren't expecting a dip. Food prices there rose a modest +2.0% but keeping a lid on other rises was the -3.5% drop in energy prices.In Australia, Cotality/CoreLogic said its Home Value Index rose +0.6% in June from May, up marginally from the prior month but it is the strongest monthly gain since June 2024. Improved market sentiment in most major cities was behind the firming and active first home buyers are behind that. On a yearly basis, national home values climbed 2.7%. Meanwhile, rental growth continued to ease, with national rents up +3.4% over the past 12 months, the slowest annual increase since early 2021.Global air cargo demand rose +2.2% in May from a year ago, up +3.0% for international airfreight. The Asia/Pacific volumes were up a very healthy +8.2% on the same basis, no doubt related to the rush to beat US tariff deadlines. These overall volumes would have been better if the North American components hadn't been so weak (+-5.8%).Meanwhile, May air passenger travel rose +5.0%, up +6.7% for international travel and up +13.3% in the Asia/Pacific region. The only region to decline was North America (-0.5%) and mostly because of weak domestic travel.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.23%, and down -4 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,2952/oz, and up +US$19 from yesterday.American oil prices are marginally softer from yesterday at just under US$65/bbl while the international Brent price is down -US$1, now just over US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60.9 USc, up +30 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 51.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68.2 and +10 bps firmer than yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$107,683 and up +0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has stayed low at just on +/-0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are now halfway through 2025, closer to the next summer holiday break than the last one. We may need it more this time because economic 'progress' is hard to find.Looking ahead this week, the big end of month data dumps for May from the RBNZ will give us an updated look at mortgage and term deposit activity. The ANZ will also update us on their business sentiment survey for June. Then later in the week the June updates from the real estate industry will be released.In Australia it will also be about retail and trade updates for May.The week end with the US on another summer holiday break, this one for their Independence Day. Their June labour market report will come a day earlier this week (another low +129,000 is expected), preceded by PMI updates from all over. Markets also expect the US to announce tariff actions after the so-called 90 day pause. But Trump deadlines mean little in war and other diplomatic areas so don't be surprised if they mean little here too. He will go head if they don't hurt his own businesses, pull back if they do.Of more importance to us will be the results of both Chinese and Japanese data and surveys.In China, deflationary pressures not helped by the tariff war are keeping China's industrial profits in a low zone. They barely hit ¥600 bln in May and that was their lowest level for a May month since 2019 and -9.1% lower than May 2024. For the five months they were down -1.1% so the pace of decline is unfortunately building.Across the Pacific in the US, the squeeze on American household incomes shows up in the latest data for personal incomes and spending, this data for May. Incomes were only +1.7% higher than a year ago. Decreases in income support for struggling households is showing up in this data. And after inflation, they will be going backwards on the income front. On the consumption front, spending was up +2.2% from a year ago, also lower than the May 2.4% CPI inflation.This is a sure sign of rising economic stress that is spreading.The final reading of the University of Michigan survey of June consumer sentiment was out overnight and it confirmed the spreading household stress. This survey has been stuck at one of its worst readings on record for two months after plunging almost -30% in the first four months of 2025. Over the 80 years of the survey, a drop this large this fast has almost always predicted a recession. Sentiment readings improved slightly at the start of June but were -18% lower than at the start of the year to indicate Americans expect much higher prices and a much slower economy in the coming year. It should be no surprise this is the outcome of the changed US public policy direction - but the financial markets are ignoring this signal; willfully it seems.They seem to be overlooking these same survey results that show sentiment has fallen fastest this year for the most well-off consumers, whose post-pandemic spending spree helped insulate the American economy from recession then. They aren't there to do it this time, according to the UofM survey data.In Canada, they got weekend news that Trump is going to use tariffs to punish them for trying to tax US Big Tech companies via its Digital Services Tax initiative. The US wants free access to Canada and tax-free. Earlier the Canadians had confirmed the DST, which had been passed by their Parliament, would go into effect on June 30.Separately, Canada has ordered one of the world's largest video surveillance equipment manufacturers, State-owned Hikvision, to cease operations there on national security grounds. The order bars Hikvision from conducting business in Canada and prohibits government departments and agencies from purchasing its products. Existing installations of Hikvision equipment across government properties are under review to ensure their eventual removal. Hikvision cameras and monitoring systems are widely available in Australia and New Zealand.Economic sabotage may be spreading, but so are climate risks. It is early in the northern hemisphere summer season still, but both the US and Europe are struggling with dangerous heat dome conditions. China is not immune. These are sure to have economic implications if they extend through to September as expected.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.27%, and unchanged from Saturday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,273/oz, and little-changed from Saturday. A week ago it was at US$3365/oz so a -2.8% fall from then.American oil prices are +50c softer from Saturday at just on US$65/bbl while the international Brent price is now just on US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60.6 USc, up +20 bps from Saturday. A week ago it was at 59.7 USc so a net +1.5% appreciation. Against the Aussie we are -10 bps softer at 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68.1 and +10 bps firmer than Saturday. A week ago it was at 67.7 so a net +40 bps gain.The bitcoin price starts today at US$107,509 and up +0.6% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has stayed low at just on +/-0.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Poppi, Tommie Basketball Opener, Minny Weekend Bets, Men's Hockey Newcomers, UST officially D1, NBA Draft Recap, MN prospects in NHL draft, Wolves New Arena?, Aaron Rodgers last Hoorah, UNRL, A-Rod & Marc Lore officially Wolves & Lynx owners and more!!!

Petit Landais, François à, d'aussi loin qu'il se souvienne, toujours rêvé de ballon ovale ! Emmené conjointement au golf et au rugby, il fait ses armes du côté de Saint Vincent de Tyrosse et fait immédiatement montre de qualités remarquables. Equipier premier dès ses 17 ans, il est rapidement promu Capitaine d'une US Tyrosse alors en 2ème division.En 1999, à l'âge de 20 ans, il s'engage au SU Agen, club dans lequel il passera toute sa carrière de joueur pro, et avec qui il connaitra presque toutes les émotions.Finaliste du Top 16 en 2002, titulaire de 8 capes avec le XV de France, il a pris sa retraite de joueur en 2009 non sans avoir aidé les Lot et Garonnais à remonter en Top 14.Immédiatement reconverti entraineur dans la formation Agenaise, François a ensuite pris la direction de Perpignan, avant de retrouver ses racines Tyrossaises, et il officie maintenant du côté de Clermont Ferrand.Si un adjectif peut le définir, c'est bien celui de passionné : de rugby évidemment, mais également de sport au sens large du terme, de transmission et de la culture qui est la sienne, celle des Landes, avec un attrait tout particulier pour la tauromachie.Arrivé en haut tout jeune, il a appris à se forger en traversant bien des galères. Vous allez le constater, son parcours et son état d'esprit sont réellement remarquables.Notre échange était dense et passionnant : en bref, je me suis régalé en sa compagnie !Bonne écoute !-----------------------------

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news its all about the US and the sharp weakening of the greenback. It is now at its lowest level since early 2022. And a key part of the reason is worries about the Trump attack on the Fed's independence.Meanwhile, US initial jobless claims have stayed elevated although they fell from the prior week to +227,000 which is marginally above the same week a year ago. There are now 1.87 mln people on these benefits, +124,000 more than the 1.75 mln a year ago.US Q1-2025 PCE inflation was revised higher overnight to 3.7% in updated data - and that is up from 2.4% on Q4-2025. Early impacts of tariff-taxes are starting to show through here. Real consumer spending was revised down to just +0.5% growth from the initial estimate of +1.2% and well below the Q4-2024 rise of +4.0%. These revisions don't paint a very good picture about how American consumers fared in early 2025. Final GDP 'growth' fell -0.5% in the quarter, the first decline in three years.But there was a good rise in durable goods orders in May, up +17.5% from the same month a year ago. But non-defense capital goods orders rose only +2.4% suggesting board rooms remain hesitant, and see the tariff-related order rush as nothing more than temporary.Certainly the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index doesn't point to any upturn. Nor does the latest regional Fed survey, this one from the Kansas City Fed.The May US trade balance wasn't great either, coming in with a worse deficit than expected at -US$93.7 bln with exports dipping and imports rising from April. From a year ago the result was little-different.Globally, policy imbalances cause distortions as you would expect, and in the short term at least, they can juice up trade activity despite their intentions.Elsewhere in Singapore, industrial production slipped in May to be 'only' +3.9% higher than year-ago levels. In April the gain was +5.6% so a clear easing, even if it wasn't as much as was anticipated.More generally, we will need to be careful talking about commodity prices when the US dollar is on a downslide. Almost everything is quoted in USD so rising prices now largely reflect that depreciation.Freight rates are falling after the relatively brief 'Iran crisis' hot war. And they too are quoted in USD so the falls will be magnified in other currencies. Container freight rates were down -9% last week from the week before to be -38% lower than year-ago levels - but a year-ago they were in their own Suez crisis stress. Bulk cargo rates are falling too.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, and down -4 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,334/oz, and up +US$12 from yesterday.American oil prices are unchanged from yesterday at just on US$65.50/bbl while the international Brent price is still just on US$68/bbl. Meanwhile Shell confirmed it isn't currently bidding for the underperforming BP, and that it is required to wait six month under UK law to take another look.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60.7 USc, up +40 bps from yesterday and that's an eight-month high. However, against the Aussie we are -20 bps softer at 92.5 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68.1 and +10 bps firmer than yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$107,338 and up +0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news tariff-tax cost threats to inflation are being joined by seasonal climate threats in the US.First, it is hot in large parts of the US, including the heavily populated North-East. Air-conditioners are working overtime. And that means electricity grids are overloaded. Retail electricity prices have spiked to nearly US$2,400/MWhr (NZ$4000/MWhr) during peak evening demand last night. Wholesale prices on Long Island topped US$7,000/MWh. Just for context, New Zealand prices this morning are about $60/MWhr. It's a crisis here they reach NZ$1000/MWhr.Meanwhile, US mortgage applications rose last week slightly from the week before, but only because refinance activity rose. Applications to buy a new home were down sharply from the prior week although up from the same week a year ago. Interest rates were little changed.But May sales of new single-family homes dropped sharply by almost -14% from the prior month to an annualised rate of 623,000 units and far below the expected 700,000 units rate and the sharpest decline since mid 2022. May 2025 was -6.3% below year ago levels. Getting the blame was uncertain economic conditions that is causing potential buyers to wait before committing to a purchase. And things could get worse - there are now 10 month's supply of built but unsold homes at the current sales rate. We may start to see some aggressive discounting ahead - or more builders going bust.The big US Treasury 5yr bond tender earlier today was well supported even if not quite at the level of the last event. This event delivered a median yield of 3.82%, a bit less than the 4.01% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.And in Senate testimony, Fed boss Powell acknowledged that tariff-taxes could be a one-off threat to inflation, but he said that is not a law of nature, and they are worried they could also drive persistent rises in costs. He said they will stay on guard until they know the actual effect.In China, their central bank injected ¥300 bln into financial institutions through a one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) into the country's banking system. This is what was expected.And in a first, President Xi will not attend the Brazilian-hosted BRICS meeting this year, the first time he has skipped that. The reasons why aren't clear, and that is fueling speculation.In Australia, their monthly inflation indicator fell to 2.1% in May, down from 2.4% in both March and April. That is a seven month low, and lower than the 2.3% rate expected. The main influence for the reduction were fruit & vegetable prices (from +6.1% to +2.8%), and travel & accommodation (from +5.3% to +0.6%).The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.29%, and down -1 bp from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,322/oz, and up an insignificant US$2 from yesterday.American oil prices are up +US$1 from yesterday at just on US$65.50/bbl while the international Brent price is now just over US$68/bbl.And we should probably note that the Wall Street Journal is reporting that Dutch oil company Shell is in talks to buy British rival BP. Currently, Shell is denying the report.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60.3 USc, up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are +10 bps firmer at 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68 and +10 bps firmer than yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$107,062 and up +0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Izrael zaatakował Iran w serii zmasowanych nalotów bombowych na ośrodki nuklearne, bazy wojskowe, domy naukowców zaangażowanych w program nuklearny oraz dzielnice mieszkaniowe w Teheranie i innych miastach. Izraelczycy twierdzą, że jest to atak wyprzedzający, a Iran stał na progu wyprodukowania dziewięciu bomb atomowych. W atakach zginął dowódca Korpusu Strażników Rewolucji – elitarnej jednostki wojskowej – a także szef sztabu armii i kilku wysokich rangą naukowców związanych z programem nuklearnym.W odpowiedzi Iran wystrzelił sto dronów w kierunku Izraela. Jak twierdzą źródła izraelskie, wszystkie zostały przechwycone jeszcze przed wejściem w izraelską przestrzeń powietrzną. Prezydent Trump powiedział, że został uprzedzony o ataku, ale Stany Zjednoczone nie biorą w nim udziału.Jak piątkowe wydarzenia wpływają na sytuację w regionie? Czy dojdzie do kontynuacji rozmów w sprawie programu nuklearnego Iranu? Jaka będzie skala militarnej odpowiedzi Iranu nie tylko wobec Izraela, ale również Stanów Zjednoczonych?W Kolumbii zamach na kandydata w wyborach prezydenckich, a potem fala przemocy w niegdysiejszej siedzibie jednego z karteli narkotykowych – mieście Cali. Czy do kraju doświadczonego prawie 60-letnią wojną domową wraca przemoc na dużą skalę?Według tajnego dokumentu rosyjskich służb Chiny stanowią poważne zagrożenie wywiadowcze dla Rosji. FSB podkreśla, że Chińczycy prowadzą agresywny werbunek szpiegów i realizują plany sprzeczne z interesami Rosji. Co ten raport mówi o rzeczywistych stosunkach między Moskwą a Pekinem?Zmarł Frederick Forsyth – mistrz i prekursor nowoczesnego thrillera politycznego. Co miał Forsyth, czego inni nie mieli? Dlaczego do dziś jego książki tak dobrze się sprzedają, a on sam stanowi punkt odniesienia dla wielu pisarzy tego gatunku?A także: W Szwajcarii obrywający się lodowiec zniszczył wioskę Blatten, zmieniając miejscowość i całą dolinę, w której się znajdowała, w rumowisko. Czy przed osuwającymi się lodowcami i potężnymi lawinami ziemnymi można się w ogóle chronić?Rozkład jazdy: (03:04) Łukasz Fyderek: Atak Izraela na Iran(23:42) Joanna Gocłowska-Bolek: Przemoc wraca do Kolumbii(42:44) Podziękowania(48:53) Marcin Żyła: Ustępujący lodowiec niszczy wioskę w Szwajcarii(1:05:26) Michał Lubina: Chiny szpiegują w Rosji(1:30:26) Piotr Gociek: Kim był Frederic Forsyth?(1:55:42) Do usłyszenia---------------------------------------------Raport o stanie świata to audycja, która istnieje dzięki naszym Patronom, dołącz się do zbiórki ➡️ ⁠https://patronite.pl/DariuszRosiak⁠Subskrybuj newsletter Raportu o stanie świata ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠➡️ ⁠https://dariuszrosiak.substack.com⁠Koszulki i kubki Raportu ➡️ ⁠https://patronite-sklep.pl/kolekcja/raport-o-stanie-swiata/⁠ [Autopromocja]

1.) US DOLLAR - What is correlated and what is not...and why does it matter?2.) INTEREST RATES - Consensus will now get TOO DOVISH headed into next month's CPI print.  UST tapping TRADE support at 4.33%3.) OIL - TREND support at 63/barrel WTIONE MORE - Volatility.  IVOL premiums showing up.  Not crash conditions.

这是一期风格上略有嬉皮，但实际上既定位严肃、在内容上也实现了深度和广度兼具，讲透了热门概念「RWA」（Real World Assets，真实世界资产）的发展历程、实践经验、面临困境和远大前程。 本期节目从质疑和批判开始，到建设性思考和充满正能量的期待结束。RWA 「带教老师」民道老师认真教，两位主播认真学，现场充满欢声笑语——有愉悦的笑，也有无奈的笑，背后是全是思考和憧憬。 希望听众 enjoy～ 【主播】 刘锋，BODL Ventures 合伙人，前链闻总编辑 熊浩珺Jack，律动 BlockBeats 副主编，《Web3 无名说》主播 【嘉宾】 杨民道，DForce创始人 【赞助商】 本期节目由开源硬件钱包 OneKey 赞助播出。硬件钱包是保护加密资产最有效的方式之一。加密世界是黑暗森林，每个人都该为自己的资产负责。物理隔离的硬件钱包，能更好保护助记词不被盗窃。 访问OneKey官网 (https://shop.onekey.so/discount/web3101)购买开源硬件钱包，使用折扣码「web3101」可享受 95 折优惠。 【你将听到】 笑谈「变种RWA」：Really Worthless Assets? 02:32 RWA 火爆现状一瞥：从 RWA 辅导班到「带教老师」（等等，你们在聊什么） 03:02 为什么Web2 VC 更爱 RWA 概念 05:16 嘲笑 RWA 的心路历程 05:38从张大千的画到厂房到煤炭，这些「实物资产们」都要上链变成 RWA！ 08:18Case study：黄金这种标准化资产变成 RWA 之路 08:48 RWA 发行主体非常重要 厘清 RWA 概念的来龙去脉 10:52 重新再来：RWA 究竟是什么？ 11:10 溯源｜真实世界资产始作俑者： MakerDAO 11:27 溯源｜RWA 概念最早实践者：Centrifuge 19:52 RWA 概念火爆的第一个催化剂是稳定币 21:47 中文世界热炒 RWA 概念反映出融资环境差，需要找一个更好的融资渠道 22:15 加密货币世界缺少真实生息场景也推动 RWA 资产被重视 数数适合上链的资产有哪些 22:30 Case study：Apollo 推出的「ACRED」如何实现高收益 25:48 固收类将从标准类到非标类迁移，从低风险到中、再到高风险走 26: 16 石油为什么不是好的 RWA 标的：不好审计 27:55 充电桩做 RWA 产品的优势：运营数据可验证 31:45 比亚迪的「迪链」做 RWA 的可能 33:40传统固收、权益类资产都有上链需求，但是固收资产好于权益类资产 34:19 股票代币化大有可能 许可 vs. 无需许可：一个门，两片天 40:43 RWA 发行技术不是护城河，有声誉优势的传统金融机构出来做 RWA 产品，秒杀原生团队 42:45 有经验的 DeFi 原生团队利用好已上链的 RWA 资产，有机会玩出新天地 47:37 打通许可和非许可这两个世界，非许可世界里可能组合出来新东西的数量会远远大过许可世界 51:56 为啥合作资产熄火花了，RWA 爆火了？ 58:07 主权国家干涉非许可世界的可能性及解决方案 【名词解释】 观察 RWA 领域发展的有用工具： RWA.xyz (https://app.rwa.xyz/) RWA 行业的标准数据分析平台，其网站可以提供 RWA 领域目前最全面的数据仪表盘和数据监测工具。 本期提到的一些 Web3 企业和词汇： Tether Gold (XAUt) XAUt 是由 Tether 公司（稳定币 USDT 发行方） 推出的一种黄金支持的稳定币，每个 XAUt 代币代表 1 盎司（Troy Ounce）的实物黄金。 Pax Gold (PAXG) PAXG 是一种由实物黄金支持的加密货币，由受监管的金融科技公司 Paxos Trust Company 发行，每一枚 PAXG 代币代表一盎司黄金。 MakerDAO 一个链上去中心化金融（DeFi）协议，最初的主要功能是提供超额抵押借贷服务，并发行去中心化稳定币 DAI，是 DeFi 领域最具影响力的项目之一。MakerDAO 最近进行了品牌重塑，新品牌为「Sky」。播客中嘉宾和主播提到的「Rune」，指的是 MakerDAO 的创始人 Rune Christensen。 DAI 是 MakerDAO 发行的去中化稳定币，其设计机制希望实现 DAI与美元 1:1 锚定，由超额抵押的加密资产（如 ETH、WBTC）或现实世界资产（RWA）支持。DAI 是目前最大的去中心化稳定币。 Centrifuge 一个开发和运营团队主要在德国的去中心化资产融资协议，专注于将现实世界资产（RWA）代币化并引入区块链，以增强资产流动性并降低中小企业的融资成本。它主要通过智能合约和区块链技术，让企业能够抵押现实资产（如发票、房地产、特许权使用费等）来获得去中心化金融（DeFi）市场的融资，而无需依赖传统银行或中介机构。Centrifuge 是 RWA代币化领域的先驱。 Apollo Diversified Credit Securitize Fund (ACRED) ACRED 基金是由资产管理公司 Apollo Global Management 与 Securitize 合作推出的代币化私募信贷基金，将其底层资产（包括企业直接贷款、资产支持融资、结构化信贷）代币化，旨在将传统私人信贷资产引入区块链，为投资者提供链上高收益固收类投资机会。 Synthetix 一个基于以太坊的去中心化金融（DeFi）协议，专注于合成资产的发行与交易。它允许用户在不实际持有标的资产的情况下，通过超额质押的方式，获得对加密货币、法币、大宗商品甚至股票等资产的价格敞口。Synthetix 通过智能合约和超额抵押机制，确保合成资产的价值与真实资产价格保持一致。 Terra Terra 是一个基于 Cosmos SDK 开发的区块链生态系统，专注于算法稳定币和去中心化金融（DeFi） 应用。Terra 发行了算法稳定币 UST，通过超额抵押的方式铸造稳定币，并采用算法机制维持与美元 1:1 锚定，而非依赖法币储备。UST 市值一度达 27.5 亿美元，2022 年 5 月 UST 脱钩引发恐慌，导致 Terra 整个生态体系崩盘。Terra 生态还曾推出 Mirror Protocol，用户可以生成和交易股票类合成资产。 【后期】 AMEI 【BGM】 Mumbai - Ooyy 【在这里找到我们】 收听渠道：Apple Podcast｜Spotify｜YouTube｜小宇宙 联系我们：podcast@sv101.net

Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Jack Greenslade in FX Sales about the move in financial markets this week following the US-China trade war de-escalation announced on Monday. Derek explains why the dollar gain petered out quickly but also highlights the huge buying of UST bonds by private foreign investors. So even though foreign central banks might be selling, the buying by private investors easily offsets that. Derek and Jack also discuss the USD/Asia moves and how investors' behaviours in regard to hedging USD exposures may be changing.

APAC stocks traded mostly higher following the rally on Wall St owing to the US-China trade war de-escalation after both sides agreed to cut tariffs by 115ppts for an initial period of 90 days, although some of the gains were capped as the euphoria began to moderate.White House Executive Order said US will cut the minimum tariff on China shipments from 120% to 54%, and a minimum flat fee of USD 100 is to remain.DXY took a breather and gave back some of yesterday's firm gains; 10yr UST futures traded rangebound after recently suffering from a lack of haven appealEuropean equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market finished with gains of 1.6% on Monday.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Jobs, German ZEW, US CPI, Speakers include US President Trump, BoE's Pill, Bailey & ECB's Rehn, Supply from Netherlands, UK, Italy & Germany, Earnings from JD.Com, Intuitive Machines, On, Munich Re, Hannover Re, Bayer, K+S, Leg, Ferrovial & A2A.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

4pm Hour: Jason talks about staying at the Four Seasons this weekend - should he have stayed in or gone out? Dan shares a Monday Message on the need to show up for each other. And finally Jason talks with Professor Rachel Moran from UST about the DOJ's investigation into Mary Moriarty's race policy.

In six short trading days from 4/2 to 4/9, the SPX realized as much vol as it did during the ENTIRE year of 2024. The protracted risk-off that began with the “Liberation Day” fallout ranks only behind Covid and the GFC in terms of severity using data going back to 1990. While we've likely moved past peak VIX, in the aftermath of recent chaos is an overhang of uncertainty that may hamper critical decision-making. I see plenty of lingering uncertainties - from the uneven communication from the WH, from the unpriced reactions of our trading partners and from how the market will need to price in the potential economic and corporate profit fallout from the last several weeks. Unfortunately, the recent period has been a totally unforced exercise in negative branding for both the dollar and US government bond market. For the VIX to run to 50 and for duration not to rally concurrently is a bad outcome, amounting to an asset pricing taste test that went poorly. Scott Bessent and Company need to more effectively safeguard one of our most prized possessions, the US government bond market. The Ten-Year note, not the SPX, is the risk asset. The real financial tail risk that would bring about a spiral higher in the VIX would seem to lie in the potential that long-dated UST yields rise quickly. From a contagion standpoint, the Ten Year is the vulnerability. It's not being treated as such. I hope you find this useful. Have a great week. 

US President Trump said it depends on China how soon tariffs can come down and they have spoken to 90 countries regarding tariffs already.US President Trump said if they don't have a deal, they will set tariffs and could set the tariff for China over the next two or three weeks, while he suggested that there is daily direct contact between US and China.White House Economic Advisor Hassett said the USTR has 14 meetings scheduled this week with foreign trade ministers and there are 18 written offers from trade ministers, while he stated China is open to talks.APAC stocks were ultimately mixed despite the positive handover from Wall Street - the risk momentum waned overnight as trade uncertainty lingered owing to the mixed signals from the US.Overnight, US equity futures marginally eased, DXY slightly softened, spot gold and 10yr UST futures rebounded from the prior day's troughs.European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down U/C after the cash market closed with gains of 2.8% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Ifo, US Durable Goods, Jobless Claims, IMF/World Bank Spring Meeting; Speakers including ECB's Lagarde & Lane, Fed's Kashkari, BoE's Lombardelli & Riksbank's Seim; Supply from Italy, UK & US; Earnings from Alphabet, Intel, American Airlines, Freeport, Southwest Airlines, PepsiCo, Dow Chemical, Merck, Valero, PG&E, T-Mobile, Vale, Eni, Anglo American, Weir, BNP Paribas, Sanofi, Orange, STMicroelectronics, Air Liquide, Renault, Carrefour, Michelin, SGS, Roche & Nestle.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Tom has a TV and a pair of speakers set up now! Kaleidescape joins the 8K Association. Epson QS100 adds a UST projector to the Q-Series. Emotiva’s RMC-1+ and XMC-2+ Pre-Pros finally bring HDMI 2.1 and DTS:X Pro. Nintendo Switch 2 pre-orders begin in Canada and the USA. Pictures shown in this episode: https://flic.kr/s/aHBqjCa6vh 00:00:00 – […] The post AV Rant #964: College Life appeared first on AV Rant.

With a passion for serving and growing the local church, particularly in areas where it's difficult to train and raise up leaders, Dr. Michael Reeves, President of explains how UST trains pastors and leaders in the church worldwide—including pastors for churches in hostile areas and restricted nations. Listen as Dr. Reeves explains the importance of the education to equip church leaders to know God, love and adore Him and His ways, and know the gospel so they may effectively preach it. This training, and the deep knowledge of God is fosters, helps pastors withstand persecution when it comes. Dr. Reeves will also share about his own missions experience living on the border of Pakistan and Afghanistan, and the lessons he learned living in a Muslim culture and seeing how Christians were treated—and how they responded. “You become like the God you worship,” Reeves says. “When believers only have Christ—and not other substitutes for Him—it seems that they're able to taste of that joy more deeply. He'll also share thoughts on how each of us can nurture our own prayer life. Pray for believers to have a deeper knowledge of God and be inspired by the testimonies of persecuted Christians, which display beautiful evidence of the power of the gospel.

«Hacía ocho años que tenía en jaque a todo el Cibao. Se presentaba de improviso en Santiago, desaparecía y al otro día abaleaba un soldado en Salcedo.... Se dijo que era brujo; que cuando lo quería, se hacía invisible. Se le temía como a un dios implacable. El Gobierno despachó cientos de hombres tras él, y el ejército llenaba la cárcel de pobres campesinos, sospechosos de encubrirle. Nada.... »... Me llenó de sorpresa verlo tan sereno... como si no fuera el objeto de una caza feroz y larga. Llevaríamos más de media hora allí. Él había contado innumerables episodios de su vida y parecía muy cansado. Tenía una voz triste.... Él era campesino, joven.... »—Quique. Quizá yo pueda serle útil sin faltarle a mi conciencia. »—No, amigo, no tiene que faltarle; sólo lo quería pa conversar con usté. Me parece que no voy a durar mucho, y como de mí se habla tanto, no quería morirme sin que siquiera un hombre supiera que de no acosarme como un perro con rabia, esto se hubiera evitao.... »... Torné a verlo. Ni miraba ni se movía. Negro, triste y perseguido... »—No piense mal, Quique. ¿Por qué va a morirse usté? »—Es que tengo que morirme, amigo.... He pasao muchos años poniéndole el frente al diablo y llevándome en claro a muchos vagamundos; pero hace unos quince días que me pasó una cosa muy mala, y dende entonces ni an duermo.... Quique había estado rondando por Licey en pos de un compadre enfermo, y los soldados lo velaron. Ellos no acertaban nunca, porque la fama de Quique les hacía temblar el pulso a los mejores. Además, no se cuidaban de que hubiera o no gente. Mejor si la había, porque así se propalaba la noticia de que se había enfrentado al temible Quique Blanco, y eso, claro, podía proporcionar algún ascenso. Así, ese día una niña cruzaba cerca del fuego. La cogió una bala de Quique. Él la vio caer, y de golpe sintió que se le aflojaba el corazón. »—Dende ese día ando como loco, amigo. Cierro los ojos y la veo cayendo. Era una pobre criatura. No me lo perdono, amigo, y quisiera tener el poder de Dios pa devolvérsela a su mama.... »—¿Usté tiene hijos, Quique? —pregunté. »—No, amigo. Si hubiera tenío uno... »Adiviné el resto. En su lógica primitiva, dar su hijo en pago de la muerta era una solución. ¡Y eso lo pensaba él, que no sabía cómo se quiere a un hijo!... »Dos días después... me encontré con la noticia de que un muchacho de Moca había sorprendido a Quique Blanco durmiendo y le había destrozado la cabeza de un tiro con el revólver del propio muerto. Más tarde supe que habían paseado el cadáver por todos los pueblos del Cibao, para que la gente no creyera que seguía vivo.»1 Este cuento del ilustre escritor cibaeño Juan Bosch, uno de sus Cuentos escritos antes del exilio y por lo tanto antes de que llegara a ser presidente de la República Dominicana, nos recuerda que Dios sí dio a su Hijo en pago de la muerte que merecía cada uno de nosotros a causa de nuestro pecado, y que, a diferencia de lo que sucedió luego de que mataron a Quique Blanco, no había cadáver suyo que pudiera pasearse por los pueblos de Judea o de Galilea «para que la gente no creyera que seguía vivo». Porque Jesucristo resucitó,2 y hoy quiere que lo busquemos de todo corazón para que lleguemos a conocerlo en persona como Él realmente es, un Dios poderoso pero clemente y compasivo.3 Carlos ReyUn Mensaje a la Concienciawww.conciencia.net 1 Juan Bosch, «La verdad», Cuentos escritos antes del exilio (Santo Domingo: Edición Especial, 1974), pp. 38‑47. 2 Jn 3:16‑17; Ro 4:25; 6:23; 1Co 15:3‑4 3 Éx 34:6; Neh 9:17; Sal 86:15

With a passion for serving and growing the local church, particularly in areas where it's difficult to train and raise up leaders, Dr. Michael Reeves, President of Union School of Theology (Wales), explains how UST trains pastors and leaders in the church worldwide—including pastors for churches in hostile areas and restricted nations. Listen as Dr. Reeves explains the importance of the education to equip church leaders to know God, love and adore Him and His ways, and know the gospel so they may effectively preach it. This training, and the deep knowledge of God is fosters, helps pastors withstand persecution when it comes. Dr. Reeves will also share about his own missions experience living on the border of Pakistan and Afghanistan, and the lessons he learned living in a Muslim culture and seeing how Christians were treated—and how they responded. “You become like the God you worship,” Reeves says. “When believers only have Christ—and not other substitutes for Him—it seems that they're able to taste of that joy more deeply. He'll also share thoughts on how each of us can nurture our own prayer life. Pray for believers to have a deeper knowledge of God and be inspired by the testimonies of persecuted Christians, which display beautiful evidence of the power of the gospel. The VOM App for your smartphone or tablet will help you pray daily for persecuted Christians throughout the year, as well as giving free access to e-books, audio books, video content and feature films. Download the VOM App for your iOS or Android device today.

Hour 3: On the DeRush-Hour: what's going to stop the stock market skid? Jason talks to Dr. Tyler Schipper from UST. Then Dave Schwartz joins the show to talk about Paige Bueckers getting her Natty, the Men's Final Four and what's ailing the Twins