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Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the all bets are probably off on how 2025 will turn out as the cascading impacts from the Trump tariffs surge around the world.We were anticipating we would be reporting some tariff retaliation news today, and there is some. But the most significant retaliation is from financial markets. It is comprehensive.So far there are no substantive retaliations announced, only threats to do so from China, Japan, South Korea, and the EU. But Canada has hit some US cars with a matching 25% tariff. Some countries - like New Zealand and Australia - have said they won't retaliate, but they tend to be the ones who only got slapped with a 10% rate on their exports. For them it is wise to see how much will be effectively paid by US consumers, and in NZ's case it will likely be most of it. Most of the impact on us will come from second-effect reactions in other trading partners.Perhaps most galling were the 32% tariffs Trump slapped on Taiwan.Back to the economic data releases, US jobless claims were unchanged last week from the week before and only marginally higher than year-ago levels. There are now 2.07 mln people on these benefits, about +7% above year-ago levels. But that is their highest since November 2021.There was a surge in job cuts reported in March, by far the highest since the early pandemic reaction. Although most are public service cuts, it seems unlikely they will be the only ones in the months ahead.The employment component of today's ISM services PMI was unusually weak, and the overall index tumbled to its weakest since July 2024. It was barely expanding in March. The internationally-benchmarked S&P Global/Markit version had its big drop in February, and the latest March version records a small bump up from then. But it reported cost inflation up to an 18-month high.Attention now turns to tomorrow's March non-farm payrolls where a most rise of +135,000 is anticipated.US exports rose in March as part of the repositioning in anticipation of tariffs and retaliation. But an interesting detail is that of the +US$8.3 bln rise to US$278.5 bln for the month, US$3.2 bln of that was the export on gold. US imports held very high for a second month at record levels. (Imports of gold decreased -US$1.3 bln. The market chatter was that gold was flowing into the US, especially from London. Apparently that was just rumour.)Across the Pacific in China, the Caixin services PMI rose in March and to its best level of the year. This was notably stronger than the official services PMI. New orders rose the most in three months, driven by increases in domestic demand, supported by a broad improvement in demand conditions. We see that in improved Chinese buying in the dairy auction.Australia is reporting sharp drops in job vacancies. The latest data is for February, and the levels reported are almost -10% lower than year ago levels, down for that -5% in the prior 90 days alone. Almost all the decreases are in the private sector.Container freight rates slipped -2% last week from the week before, to be -26% lower than year ago levels. However they are still +55% higher than pre-pandemic levels.Bulk freight rates fell -2.5% from last week to be -8% below year-ago levels. Basically, these rates are back to pre-pandemic levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.04%, down -17 bps from yesterday at this time. The VIX volatility index has jumped suddenly, although not yet to an extreme level.Wall Street is in its Thursday session down -4.3% on the S&P500 after the tariff announcements and showing no signs of improving. The price of gold will start today at just on US$3108/oz and down a net -US$24 from yesterday.Oil prices have dropped -US$5 from yesterday at just on US$66.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just under US$69/bbl. Not only is demand expected to soften as tariffs take their toll, eight OPEC+ countries unexpectedly announced a +411,000-barrel-per-day production increase for May, far exceeding the planned +135,000 bpd. It seems an incredibly naive announcement from their self-interest point of viewThe Kiwi dollar is now at 58.1 USc and up +80 bps from this time yesterday. That is a +1.8% appreciation since the start of the week and a +3.8% appreciation since the start of March. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 91.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at just over 52.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just on 67 and up +20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$82,172 and down a sharpish -5.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very high at +/- 4.1%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Will China shore up domestic consumption with greater fiscal spending, including a record-high deficit ratio? Note: The conversation segment of this episode was generated using AI and has been edited for accuracy. It is based on this Caixin story: Analysis: China Tables Fiscal Salvo for Flagging Domestic Demand Subscribe now to unlock all coverage from Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for just $200 a year, enjoying a 66% discount.  Group discounts are available — contact us for a customized plan.

The EV giant is making smart cars more accessible and accelerating the shift to new-energy vehicles. Note: The conversation segment of this episode was generated using AI and has been edited for accuracy. It is based on this Caixin story: In Depth: How BYD Lowered the Bar for Buying a Smart Car in China Subscribe now to unlock all coverage from Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for just $200 a year, enjoying a 66% discount. Group discounts are available — contact us for a customized plan.

The U.S. ends tax exemptions for Chinese small-parcel imports, shaking Shein, Temu and others. Note: The conversation segment of this episode was generated using AI and has been edited for accuracy. It is based on this Caixin story: In Depth: Trump Ends an Era for Shein and Temu Subscribe now to unlock all coverage from Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for just $200 a year, enjoying a 66% discount.  Group discounts are available — contact us for a customized plan.

Internet giant targets Middle East takeout expansion with a focus on Saudi Arabia, drone delivery and navigating local competition Note: The conversation segment of this episode was generated using AI and has been edited for accuracy. It is based on this Caixin story: In Depth: Meituan Hopes Middle East Expansion Will Deliver Growth Subscribe now to unlock all coverage from Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for just $200 a year, enjoying a 66% discount. Group discounts are available — contact us for a customized plan.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news chaos has consequences, but they seem to be coming faster than many thought. The giant US economy is resilient, but not immune to the consequences of misguided policy decisions.Regular readers will know we regularly track the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow signals. Today that has suddenly sifted from expecting a +3.0% Q1-2025 expansion with the data on hand at the start of February, to a sharp -2.8% contraction as the latest data comes in for the US economy.We have been noting the slide in the granular data over the past week or so in these reports. Today there was another from the ISM PMI for February. Specifically, new orders in their factory sector took a sharp turn into contraction as they report demand is weakening fast. The overall PMI rose in this report, but due to production and inventories. Shrinking new order levels are not going to sustained that however.It was a different story for the internationally benchmarked S&P/Markit US factory PMI which is still reporting an expansion, and a good one. But this one isn't supported by the wider series of data over the past few weeks of weak new order levels (other than for aircraft) and rising inventories. Nor the imbalance between household spending and disposable incomes. The Atlanta Fed is signaling these are turning the US growth into reverse.We won't actually know for some weeks yet of course, but it seems the Biden prosperity is being turned into a Trump/Musk contraction.And more uncertainty is on the way. Congress has less than two weeks to extend a federal funding deadline, but lawmakers are arguing over whether the Whitehouse will really spend the money they approve.The February Canadian PMI turned suddenly negative too in response to the tariff war outlook. Later today, the US is expected to impose the threatened tariffs, even though they earlier promised to delay them to the start of April. Consistency and promises are loose ideas in today's Whitehouse.There were a wide set of early factory PMIs for a number of Asian economies and they all showed very little change (and only minor variations around the expansion/contraction fulcrum). This includes reports for Japan (49.0), Malaysia (49.7), Thailand (50.6), Vietnam (49.2) and Taiwan (51.5). The tariff war impact are yet to hit. In fact, Indonesia was a bit of an outlier, recording a very good rise (53.6), but it enabled the overall ASEAN group to record a good rise.India's PMI's signaled a mild slowdown from their fast expansion rate.Singapore's SIPMM PMI recorded a minor expansion in February.The official China factory PMI came in at 50.2, an improvement for February from January's contraction. This was backed up by the independent Caixin factory PMI which came in with a slightly faster expansion (50.8) in its survey. This is consistent with the US import data for January and suggests the US import data will be very high again in February.In Europe, their inflation rate eased to 2.4% in February, down from a six-month high of 2.5% in January but slightly above market expectations of 2.3%. But there is a wide range, from 1.4% in democratic Denmark to 5.7% in autocratic Hungary. For the EU overall it was running at 2.8%, for the euro area 2.4%.Europe's overall PMI is still contracting, but the drivers of their contraction eased somewhat in February.In something of a surprise, the TD-Melbourne Institute tracking of inflation and cost of living in Australia reported a -0.2% drop in February from the prior month, after a +0.1% rise in January. Most thought a rise was on the cards. But on an annual basis inflation is still running in the 2-3% range.Also turning negative in February from January was the job ad series from ANZ/Indeed. It was down -1.4% from January, but at lease it wasn't down the -6.9% it was in February 2023 from January 2024.CoreLogic is reporting that the Aussie housing market stabilised in February, with small but consistent house price rises in the month in almost all main centers, rolling back some of the quarterly and annual falls in some of their larger cities. The one RBA rate cut is getting the credit for the sentiment improvement.By the way, it seems the expectation for an Australian election is narrowing to an early even, maybe on April 12In the face of US mis-steps, policy markers from Canada to China are readying plans for a global downturn. And high on their agendas are looser fiscal and monetary policies to insulate their people from the worst effects. The US is also moving to much looser fiscal policies with large tax cuts for the wealthy, and likely ballooning deficits. We are entering the era of huge distortions, and it is unlikely to be pretty.Today the UST 10yr yield is at 4.18%, down -2 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at just under US$2892/oz and up +US$35 from yesterday.Oil prices are down -50 USc just on US$69.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is just over US$72.50/bbl. Both prices are -US$1 lower than a week ago. Lower expected demand is why this price is soft.The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.3 USc and up +40 bps from yesterday as the USD comes under pressure. Against the Aussie however we are still little-changed at 90.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 53.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.2, essentially unchanged from yesterday.The bitcoin price started today at US$90,059 and down a net +1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained high at +/- 3.0%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Will the price war continue, and how will smart tech reshape the market? Note: The conversation segment of this episode was generated using AI and has been edited for accuracy. It is based on this Caixin story: In Depth: China's Carmakers Face Crossroads as Slowdown Persists  Subscribe now to unlock all coverage from Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for just $200 a year, enjoying a 66% discount. Group discounts are available — contact us for a customized plan.

Companies have to contend with local protectionism, cultural differences and an underdeveloped health care sector while exploring growth potential in Southeast Asia's largest economy Note: The conversation segment of this episode was generated using AI and has been edited for accuracy. It is based on this Caixin story: In Depth: Chinese Drugmakers Find Fertile, but Challenging Market in Indonesia Subscribe now to unlock all coverage from Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for just $200 a year, enjoying a 66% discount. Group discounts are available — contact us for a customized plan.

As Middle Eastern nations are trying to diversify their economies away from oil by boosting tourism, culture and other businesses, Chinese visitors and firms are driving growth. Note: The conversation segment of this episode was generated using AI and has been edited for accuracy. It is based on this Caixin story: In Depth: Gulf States Roll Out the Welcome Mat for Chinese Tourists as Focus Shifts From Oil Subscribe now to unlock all coverage from Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for just $200 a year, enjoying a 66% discount. Group discounts are available — contact us for a customized plan.

The country hit its 5% growth target for 2024, buoyed by a burst of extra momentum in the fourth quarter. Yet, the growth was uneven Note: The conversation segment of this episode was generated using AI and has been edited for accuracy. It is based on this Caixin story: Last-Quarter Bounce Helps China Hit GDP Target but Challenges Remain Subscribe now to unlock all coverage from Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for just $200 a year, enjoying a 66% discount. Group discounts are available — contact us for a customized plan.

Despite their dominance in China's payments sector, the duo faces global challenges due to a lack of transparency Note: The conversation segment of this episode was generated using AI and has been edited for accuracy. It is based on the Caixin story: In Depth: China's Booming Cross-Border E-Commerce Pits Alipay, WeChat Pay Against the World Subscribe now to unlock all coverage from Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for just $200 a year, enjoying a 66% discount. Group discounts are available — contact us for a customized plan.

In an exclusive interview with Caixin, Bank of Thailand Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput also discusses tackling high household debt. Note: The conversation segment of this episode was generated using AI and has been edited for accuracy. It is based on the Caixin story: Interview: Thailand's Central Bank Chief on Its Rate Cut, Household Debt and Fintech This story is part of Caixin's Asia Central Banking special series. Subscribe now to unlock all coverage from Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for just $200 a year, enjoying a 66% discount. Group discounts are available — contact us for a customized plan.

Wall Street started the new trading week in mostly positive territory as chip stock boosted the S&P and Nasdaq higher with gains of 0.55% and 1.24% respectively, while the Dow Jones lagged the market with a fall of 0.06%. Market optimism about tech stocks and the earnings growth potential remains elevated which continues to fuel strong tailwinds for the sector.Over in Europe on Monday markets closed higher amid reports Trump's team is considering a plan to impose tariffs on all countries but only on ‘critical imports'. The STOXX 600 rose 0.94%, Germany's DAX added 1.56%, the French CAC climbed 2.24% and, in the UK, the FTSE 100 ended the day up 0.31%.Across Asia on Monday, markets closed mostly lower as investors digested business activity and key data out in specific regions. China's Caixin services PMI index from S&P Global rose to 52.2 in December, the fastest expansion since May last year. Despite this, China's central bank said over the weekend it would implement a ‘moderately loose' monetary policy in 2025. China's CSI index fell 0.16% on Monday, Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost almost 0.5% but South Korea's Kospi Index rose 1.91%.Locally, the ASX raced out of the gates this morning with a strong rally on the back of Wall Street's strength on Friday before pulling back in afternoon trade to close just 0.08% higher as the miners weighed on the market gains despite the tech sector posting a 0.8% gain. The iron ore mining giants came under pressure yesterday amid a decline in the price of iron ore to below US$100/tonne. Singapore's iron ore futures contracts falling below US$100/tonne were the key driver of the spot price decline today as traders exit amid easing demand for the commodity.DroneShield fell over 1.5% on Monday despite the counter-drone technology producer announcing a $9.7m order from a major military customer in Latin America.While Gold Road Resources rose 1.2% after reporting record quarterly production at the 50%-owned Gruyere project with 91,631 ounces of gold produced during the December quarter, significantly above the 68,781 ounces produced in the September quarter.Insignia Financial shares soared over 14% yesterday to a 3-year high after the superannuation company announced it had received a $2.87bn takeover bid from US-based investment manager CC Capital Partners, which trumps the former takeover offer of $2.67bn from Bain Capital. The deal would provide CC Capital with access and market share into Australia's estimated $4.1tn superannuation market which is considered to be the 4th largest in the world.What to watch today:Ahead of Tuesday's trading session on the ASX the SPI futures are anticipating the local market will open the day up 0.15%, extending on the positive finish from yesterday.On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.67% lower at US$73.47/barrel, gold is down just 0.06% at US$2636/ounce and iron ore has further weakened to trade down 1.16% at US$99.44/tonne.The Aussie dollar is buying US$0.62, 98.44 Japanese Yen, 50.09 British Pence and NZ$1.11.Trading Ideas:Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Macquarie Group (ASX:MQG) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 70-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $224.47 to the range of $243 to $248 according to standard principles of technical analysis.And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Australian Ethical Investment (ASX:AEF) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 38-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $5.15 to the range of $4.25 to $4.45 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news China's financial markets are flashing some unwelcome signals.But first up today, there were a range of services PMIs for December released overnight. And the most interesting one (for us) is the Aussie one. Their service sector expanded in the month, with new business growth accelerating, inflation rising, and business confidence at its highest level in 2½ years. This got the attention of financial markets who promptly downgraded the chance of ab RBA rate cut when they next meet on February 18. Australian benchmark Government bond yields rose sharply across the board with their 10 year up an outsized +14 bps.In China, you mar recall we reported that their official services PMI jumped from a no-change growth position in November to an outsized positive 52.2 expansion in December - and we counselled to wait for confirmation by the private Caixin services PMI. Well, that Caixin services report is in and it also recorded an 52.2 expansion, an improvement although not as sharp as the official version reported. So we can be confident the Chinese services sector is expanding now at a good pace. And it does seem to confirm that the Beijing stimulus measures are having a positive impact.In Japan, their December services PMI improved to a better expansion, although to be fair it was only a marginal gain.In India, they also reported an uptick with faster growth and softer inflationary pressures. They still have a very strong expansion, although the December gain wasn't quite as strong as analysts had expected.In Canada they slipped from a November expansion to a December contraction in their services sector. (And we should probably note, unrelated to that, Pierre Trudeau has resigned as prime minister today, ending a long political career. He has been their prime minister since 2015. They alternate the role between Conservatives and Liberals and their successful leaders seem to remain in office for about nine years each.)In the US, their S&P/Markit services PMI rose in December to a good expansion, although not quite as strong as was expected. Their widely-watched local ISM services PMI is due out tomorrow and is also expected to report a modest improvement.Meanwhile, US factory orders slipped marginally in November from October to be only a marginal +0.1% higher than the same month in 2023.The US Treasury had a well-supported three year bond auction earlier today. That came in with a median yield of 4.29%, substantially higher than to the 4.07% yield at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In the EU, their service sector expanded in December after being neutral in November. But it may not last because the gains did not include rising new orders.And in Germany, there was a bit of a surprise overnight when they reported 2.6% CPI inflation (2.9% EU harmonised). Both levels were unexpectedly higher. Excluding food and energy it came in at 3.1%, and driven by higher services costs. They still have work to do to get inflation's impulse down to the target 2% level.Back in China, yesterday we noted the bond bubble they are having as sentiment about their economic policies takes a hit in financial markets. All eyes will be on these markets today, but the official pressure is being ramped up to quell the "wrong moves" by bond traders. Local media is saying "the worst of the de-rating is over" - although local media just parrot official narratives.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.63%, and up +3 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$2639/oz and little-changed from this time yesterday.Oil prices are also little-changed from this time yesterday at just on US$74/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is still just on US$76.50.The Kiwi dollar starts today just on 56.5 USc and up +40 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps to 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 54.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67 and up +20 bps from this time yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$102,103 and up +4.1% from this time on yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

The country's leadership is shifting policy to combat weak demand, external pressures and sluggish recovery. Note: The conversation segment of this episode was generated using AI and has been edited for accuracy. It is based on the Caixin story: Four Things to Know About China's 2025 Economic Outlook Subscribe now to unlock all coverage from Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for just $200 a year, enjoying a 66% discount. Group discounts are available — contact us for a customized plan.

Beijing's latest support package targets years of off-book borrowing and growing fiscal challenges Note: The conversation segment of this episode was generated using AI and has been edited for accuracy. It is based on a Caixin story: In Depth: China's Multitrillion-Dollar Salve for Local Government Hidden Debt Subscribe now to unlock all coverage from Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for just $200 a year, enjoying a 66% discount. Group discounts are available — contact us for a customized plan.

Chinese insurers face increased volatility in key financial metrics as they adopt international accounting standards aimed at enhancing transparency Note: The conversation segment of this episode was generated using AI and has been edited for accuracy. It is based on a Caixin story: In Depth: China's Insurers Prepare to Shine a Light Into Their Financial Black Box Subscribe now to unlock all coverage from Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for just $200 a year, enjoying a 66% discount. Group discounts are available — contact us for a customized plan.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world's services sector seems to be holding its ownAhead of this weekend's November non-farm payrolls report, the private ADP Employment report out today reveals American private businesses added +146,000 workers to their payrolls in the month, slightly below forecasts of 150,000. This is a reversion to the mean for 2024. Currently analysts are expecting the non-farm payrolls to rise +200,000 when they are reported in Saturday (NZT).New factory orders inched up in October to be +3.4% higher than year ago levels.US mortgage applications rose again and for the fourth consecutive week. This was driven by new purchase activity, helped by a fall in benchmark mortgage interest rates (to 6.69%), but undercut by a fall in refi activity.The giant US service sector expanded at a good solid rate in November, but not as fast as in October, according to the widely-watched ISM survey. The November expansion was also a reversion to the 2024 mean. But the internationally-benchmarked S&PGlobal/Markit version reported a rising expansion in the sector, and to its fastest clip since March 2022. They say it was based on a rise and rise in new orders.The bullish of those two reports is likely to be the more realistic because American vehicle sales rose to an annualised rate of 16.5 mln in November, its strongest pace since May 2021There were services sector reports out for a number of economies overnight and they were mixed.In Canada, their small expansion grew again in the month. In Japan, that sector shifted from contraction to expansion. The Caixin version for China stayed at a modest expansion. But it will be disappointing that all their stimulus efforts so far haven't really moved the needle, and deflationary pressure grow. In India, theri expansion stayed strong, but is being marred by fast-rising inflation. It is inflation fuelled by food and wages and is now running at a twelve year high.In South Korea, the president's martial law move has backfired spectacularly. The stage is now set for an historic vote to impeach him. Democratic forces have prevailed over authoritarian ambition.As we publish, it seems that the French government will fall to a no-confidence vote supported by both far-right and far-left political opposition parties. (But a little history might be helpful for some French parliamentarians. Only one motion of no confidence has ever been passed in France since 1958. It was in 1962 and it was aimed at PM Georges Pompidou, and through him President Charles de Gaulle. A month and a half later, the two men found themselves more secure than ever.)In Australia, their services PMI slipped from a very minor expansion to no expansion in November. But the same survey recorded business confidence rising to its highest level since May 2022, which in the circumstances seems odd. However other Australian confidence surveys report a similar disconnect.The Aussies also released their Q3-2024 GDP result yesterday and it came in with a somewhat surprising miss. Some analysts had expected a surprise, but to the high side given recent data (based largely on the spending surge by their Federal government). But few saw this downside miss coming. The Australian economy grew by +0.3% in Q3-2024, following a +0.2% increase in the prior three quarters. This marked the 12th straight period of quarterly growth but fell short of market expectations of +0.4%. And year-on-year the rise was +0.8% instead of the expected +1.0%. These are still minor moves and given the stimulus in effect, it does lead to a view the Aussie economy is stagnating. But at least it isn't contracting.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.19%, down -1 bp from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$2652/oz and up +US$2 from this time yesterday.Oil prices are -50 USc softer at US$69.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is little-changed at just under US$73.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.7 USc and down -15 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we up +30 bps at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we have dipped -20 bps to 55.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 68.3, and unchanged from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$95,114 and virtually unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at +/- 1.1%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news all about the state of the world's factories. Globally, manufacturing stabilised in November with a rise in new orders.First up today, there were two factory PMI surveys out for the US for November. Both reported their sector contraction eased noticeably. The widely-watched local ISM version reported that new orders are now back expanding, even if the overall sector isn't. They also found that customer inventories are currently "too low", so that could well indicate an expansion is on the cards soon. And the internationally-benchmarked S&P Global/Markit version was upgraded from their 'flash' report showing similar improvements in new order flows.In Canada, their factory sector expanded with its strongest result in nearly two years.In China, the private Caixin factory PMI was noticeably more positive for November than the official version. New orders drove that improvement too, and they were led by new export orders.The same survey of Japanese factories wasn't as positive and they reported a slightly larger contraction in November.In Singapore, their PMI rose to a small expansion. But it was equal best since December 2018.In Malaysia, their PMI eased in November, only slightly, but it remained under pressure with fewer new orders.Back in China, their 10-year government bond yield has dropped to 2%, a multi-decade low. Modern records for this paper only go back to 2002, but it is easily the lowest since then. The fall comes amid expectations of expanded stimulus from Beijing to support the economy. But expected announcements haven't surfaced so far.There was quite a bit of data released in Australia yesterday. First, their building consent data for October rose but only because of a catchup in apartment consents. It was a big jump. Consents for houses continued to slip however. But they have had overall rises consistently since the start of the year.On the retail sales front, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia saw good gains, but retail sales gains in NSW and WA were weak. However, it seems their Black Friday sales were quite positive, giving retailers there hope that the run to Christmas will be a better trading period.On the factory front, their internationally-benchmarked November PMI contracted at a much slower pace in November, hardly at all, which counts as an improvement for them.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.18%, unchanged from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$2640/oz and down -US$9 from this time yesterday.Oil prices are -50 USc lower at US$68/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is -US$1 lower at just over US$71.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.8 USc and down -50 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we up +20 bps at 91 AUc. Against the euro we unchanged at 56 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 68.4, and down -20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$96,401 and down -1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.7%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

The German auto giants were late to adapt to the shift to EVs and failed to recognize how competitive the Chinese market had become, industry insiders say Note: The conversation segment of this episode was generated using AI and has been edited for accuracy. It is based on a Caixin story: In Depth: How BMW, Audi and Mercedes Ended Up Also-Rans in China Subscribe now to unlock all coverage from Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for just $200 a year, enjoying a 66% discount. Group discounts are available — contact us for a customized plan.

The British pharmaceutical giant falsified patient test results to secure insurance coverage for its cancer drug in an effort to boost sales, but the alleged misconduct ended up benefiting some patients. Note: The conversation segment of this episode was generated using AI and has been edited for accuracy. It is based on a Caixin story:  Cover Story: How AstraZeneca's China Fraud Was About More Than Greed Subscribe now to unlock all coverage from Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for just $200 a year, enjoying a 66% discount. Group discounts are available — contact us for a customized plan.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang has pledged commitment to opening up in his address to the China International Import Expo, which is welcoming a record number of exhibitors this year(01:10). The private Caixin services PMI indicates that the expansion in China's services sector is accelerating(42:10). Continuous rain in Spain has hit Barcelona after causing historical flooding in the Valencia region(18:09).

Exploring the drive for quick returns among China's state investors and how it contrasts with the country's push for long-term investment in high-tech. Note: The conversation segment of this episode was generated using AI and has been edited for accuracy. It is based on a Caixin story: In Depth: Impatient State Investors Hamstring Drive for ‘Patient Capital' to Lead Growth Subscribe now to unlock all coverage from Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for just $200 a year, enjoying a 66% discount. Group discounts are available — contact us for a customized plan.

Breaking down the country's third-quarter GDP growth and what comes next. Note: The conversation segment of this episode was generated using AI and has been edited for accuracy. It is based on a Caixin story: China's Third-Quarter GDP Rises 4.6%, Beating Expectations Subscribe now to unlock all coverage from Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for just $200 a year, enjoying a 66% discount. Group discounts are available — contact us for a customized plan.

The impact of Beijing's two-pronged approach on the country's economic fundamentals remains to be seen. Note: The conversation segment of this episode was generated using AI and has been edited for accuracy. It is based on two Caixin stories: China's Fresh Stimulus Targets Property and Stock Market Challenges China Unveils Fiscal Stimulus Targeting Property Market, Local Government Debt   Subscribe to a bundle deal now to unlock all coverage by Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for only $200 a year. This offers a 66% discount. Group access and applicable discounts are available. Contact us for a customized plan.  

【节目简介】南方MPV是个什么东西？胖头鱼又是什么？毫无疑问，GL8是中国汽车的里程碑，而它的意义远远超过给中国的领导们多了一台7座高档接待用车那么简单。GL8的成功极大地推动了中国汽车研发实力的进步和供应商体系的建立。而能做到这一点，泛亚研发中心的建立功不可没。本期《孤岛车谈》我们就从GL8车型的由来聊起，深究一下泛亚建立的背景以及最初进行本土研发“胖头鱼”的故事。1999-2005上海通用别克GL82005-2010上海通用别克GL82006-2010上海通用别克GL8 First Land2010-2016上海通用别克GL82011-2016别克GL8二代（胖鱼）2014 Vauxhall Meriva2004泛亚鲲鹏概念车2004泛亚鲲鹏概念车2003 （中规）别克凯越2007（台规）别克凯越2010雪佛兰乐风2013雪佛兰赛欧【话题成员】罗新雨 底盘电子系统工程师陆风鸣 社科教授侯社 前泛亚CAS工程师，现造车新势力产品规划经理罗新雨个人微博@大众风Volkswind陆风鸣个人微博@Patrick小白侯社个人微博@侯社长剪辑 ATTC埃科的涂启龙，罗新雨片尾曲 胖头鱼 by 桃李不言 (2024)【时刻文稿】0:10 南方MPV6:35 为什么叫GL8？9:26 为什么是别克？16:29 美国车企的研发外包和中国的入世谈判的助攻22:42 上海通用为什么在浦东24:52 欧宝Corsa最终的归属32:08 90年代其实是美国汽车的低潮期36:24 上海通用的创立非常不偶然37:39 泛亚的成立和初期定位43:14 侯社和泛亚的渊源以及第一阶段：改脸55:03 第二阶段：全新车型开发和两个重要车型【参考链接】1.南方MPV的故事（中文，2023）：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/6-oAi39MtNPEnk03LW27cg2.Bob Lutz接受纽约时报采访透露中方要求克莱斯勒的技术专利能够无偿转让给中国其他车企（英文，1995）：https://www.nytimes.com/1995/02/09/business/company-news-chrysler-s-mini-van-plan-in-china-is-in-jeopardy.html3.贾新光，《大洗牌：中国汽车谁主沉浮》（2010），机械工业出版社。财新《上汽保卫战》（中文，2024）：https://weekly.caixin.com/red/2024-08-17/102227211.html?s=306fb4bb83baf73b57238836f50c917b0473b9a10a8171faee8b45e380f67470cf8847b006614990&originReferrer=iOSshare&Sfrom=Wechat&readAddIntegral=qy2RIArVu4J7yLBzmNdiA13xhGVsJKSkfnFesOhNFPMjFFaV%2FTuFRw%3D%3D&system=CAIXIN&articleId=1022272114.第一个上海生产的Studebaker（英文，2009）：https://www.coachbuild.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8375.1995 Fortune 500企业排名（英文）：https://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune500_archive/full/1995/6.通用90年代引入消费品公司的品牌经营方案遭遇巨大失败（英文，2023）：https://www.michelezanini.com/the-managerialist-takeover-of-general-motors/

Ex-Taoist monk Sui Guangyi claimed to make investments by aligning heaven, earth and humanity. His company's 2018 gala even featured former national leaders like Nicolas Sarkozy and Kevin Rudd. But now, investors are left waiting to get their money back. Note: The conversation segment of this episode was generated using AI and has been edited for accuracy. It is based on a Caixin article: In Depth: Investment Guru's Supernatural Powers Haven't Made His Followers Whole Subscribe to a bundle deal now to unlock all coverage by Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for only $200 a year. This offers a 66% discount. Group access and applicable discounts are available. Contact us for a customized plan.  

Notes: For brevity, “PwC China” in this podcast refers to PwC's Chinese mainland affiliate, PwC Zhong Tian LLP. Likewise, “Evergrande” refers to the primary mainland subsidiary of China Evergrande Group, Hengda Real Estate Group Co. Ltd. The conversation segment of this podcast was generated using AI and has been edited for accuracy. It is based on a Caixin story. Subscribe to a bundle deal now to unlock all coverage by Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for only $200 a year. This offers a 66% discount. Group access and applicable discounts are available. Contact us for a customized plan.  

Beijing to launch anti-discrimination probe after Canada hikes EV tariffs, Mercedes-Benz plans $2 billion joint investment in China to regain lost ground. Subscribe to a bundle deal now to unlock all coverage by Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for only $200 a year. That's a 66% discount. Group access and applicable discounts are available. Contact us for a customized plan.

EV-maker BYD to buy out its German distributor, China Vanke debt cracks exposed after first loss in 20 years. Subscribe to a bundle deal now to unlock all coverage by Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for only $200 a year. That's a 66% discount. Group access and applicable discounts are available. Contact us for a customized plan.

Chip giant Nvidia sees shares tumble by almost 10 per cent, wiping out close to $300bn of its market cap – the largest single-day fall in value of any American company on record. As a result, Wall Street notches its worst day since the tech rout seen in early August. The sell-off spreads across to Asia where Japan's Nikkei leads losses. Semi-conductor firms TSMC, SoftBank, Samsung and SK Hynix are all in the red. In the U.S. factory activity contracts as the ISM comes in at 47.2. We hear from former Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester who says the markets need to examine the rate projections beyond the September Fed meeting. BofA joins an ever-expanding list of American banks which doubt China's 5 per cent GDP growth target. The private Caixin survey shows a slowdown in services growth. And in oil news, crude prices extend losses after falling more than 4 per cent yesterday with investors banking on greater supplies coming out of Libya. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

EV-maker XPeng aims to manufacture cars in Europe to blunt new tariffs, Tencent-backed Black Myth: Wukong gives China's gaming industry a shot in the arm. Subscribe to a bundle deal now to unlock all coverage by Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for only $200 a year. That's a 66% discount. Group access and applicable discounts are available. Contact us for a customized plan.

Chinese fund firm's recently resigned chairman linked to U.S. president's son, China adds metal used in ammo to list of restricted exports. Subscribe to a bundle deal now to unlock all coverage by Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for only $200 a year. That's a 66% discount. Group access and applicable discounts are available. Contact us for a customized plan.

Struggles in China hurt Uniqlo's bottom line, Tesla renews bid to break into local insurance business. Subscribe to a bundle deal now to unlock all coverage by Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for only $200 a year. That's a 66% discount. Group access and applicable discounts are available. Contact us for a customized plan.

WeRide plans biggest U.S. IPO by Chinese firm since Didi, Beijing tweaks regulations to ease the way for foreign investors. Subscribe to a bundle deal now to unlock all coverage by Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for only $200 a year.  That's a 66% discount. Group access and applicable discounts are available. Contact us for a customized plan.

Global beauty giants smell opportunity in China's fragrance-makers, Aion opens its first overseas EV plant in Thailand. Subscribe to a bundle deal now to unlock all coverage by Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for only $200 a year. That's a 66% discount. Group access and applicable discounts are available. Contact us for a customized plan.

Tariff hikes loom as exports surge, tougher solar rules planned to slow manufacturing expansion. Subscribe to a bundle deal now to unlock all coverage by Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for only $200 a year. That's a 66% discount. Group access and applicable discounts are available. Contact us for a customized plan.

Matrix Partners renames Chinese unit to stress its independence, Russia detour hinders revival of European carriers' China flights. Subscribe to a bundle deal now to unlock all coverage by Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for only $200 a year. That's a 66% discount. Group access and applicable discounts are available. Contact us for a customized plan.

China's private Caixin manufacturing PMI survey, which covers smaller firms, reached a three-year high of 51.8 in June. Analysts say this is pointing to a steady recovery of China's economy. Where are the new opportunities in China's economy (00:40)?The UN General Assembly adopted a resolution by China calling for stronger international cooperation on artificial intelligence (20:07).

Indonesia signs major deals with Chinese automakers; Malaysia and Thailand announce intention to join BRICS. Subscribe to a bundle deal now to unlock all coverage by Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for only $200 a year. That's a 66% discount. Group access and applicable discounts are available. Contact us for a customized plan.

CATL in hot water over grueling work schedule, Tesla gets license to test full self-driving in Shanghai. Subscribe to a bundle deal now to unlock all coverage by Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for only $200 a year. That's a 66% discount. Group access and applicable discounts are available. Contact us for a customized plan.

CATL refutes forced labor allegations, Australia orders Chinese investors to sell stakes in rare earth miner. Subscribe to a bundle deal now to unlock all coverage by Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for only $200 a year. That's a 66% discount. Group access and applicable discounts are available. Contact us for a customized plan.

EU's proposed carbon footprint methodology has Chinese EV-battery makers on edge, Tianqi considers action to protect its stake in Chilean lithium mining firm. Subscribe to a bundle deal now to unlock all coverage by Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for only $200 a year. That's a 66% discount. Group access and applicable discounts are available. Contact us for a customized plan.

Shipping rates to Latin America soar as Chinese exporters rush to beat looming U.S. tariffs, Huawei gains market share as U.S. squeezes Nvidia's chip supply. Subscribe to a bundle deal now to unlock all coverage by Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for only $200 a year. That's a 66% discount. Group access and applicable discounts are available. Contact us for a customized plan.

New round of U.S. tariffs to hit battery-makers hardest, China launches first major sodium-ion battery energy storage station. Subscribe to a bundle deal now to unlock all coverage by Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for only $200 a year. That's a 66% discount. Group access and applicable discounts are available. Contact us for a customized plan.

SAIC to share hybrid car tech with Volkswagen, GM; CATL partners with French shipping giant to explore electric ship collaboration. Subscribe to a bundle deal now to unlock all coverage by Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for only $200 a year. It's a 66% discount. Group access and applicable discounts are available. Contact us for a customized plan.

AI startups lead China's unicorn herd, China offers one more year visa waiver for travelers from 12 countries. Subscribe to a bundle deal now to unlock all coverage by Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for only $200 a year. It's a 66% discount. Group access and applicable discounts are available. Contact us for a customized plan.

US futures are pointing to a higher open today, extending Friday's gains. European equity markets have opened in the positive territory, following solid sessions in Asian markets. Softer than expected US nonfarm payrolls and ISM services results boosted sentiment. Fed repricing also brought forward, with first rate cut expected in September instead of November. Some support also comes from US earnings. China back in spotlight as Xi meets Macron and Caixin services PMI remained buoyant.Companies Mentioned: Paramount Global, Sony Pictures Entertainment, Apollo, Comcast, Boeing

TikTok vows to fight on in face of U.S. ban, EU hits fast-fashion giant Shein with new digital rules, Air China orders 100 homegrown C919s. Subscribe to a bundle deal now to unlock all coverage by Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for only $200 a year. It's a 66% discount. Group access and applicable discounts are available. Contact us for a customized plan.

Wind turbine exports surged 60% in 2023, nuclear power investment hits new high. Subscribe to a bundle deal now to unlock all coverage by Caixin Global and The Wall Street Journal for only $200 a year. It's a 66% discount. Group access and applicable discounts are available. Contact us for a customized plan.