Podcasts about san francisco fed

Chris tears apart the tariff narrative with Nassim Nicholas Taleb's San Francisco Fed data. For every $100 of Chinese-made goods sold in the U.S., China takes just $12, while the U.S. pockets $88 via design, shipping, and retail. With 150% tariffs slashing demand 50%, Markowski argues it's us, not China, losing big—$44 vs. their $6. He calls out gaslighting on job losses, blaming U.S. money printing and regulations, not China, for rising costs. www.watchdogonwallstreet.com

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly says she is “very comfortable” with policymakers’ median projection of two interest-rate cuts next year, emphasizing the central bank can turn to a slower approach. She spoke about the Fed's path forward with hosts Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz and Michael McKee.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I had questions. A lot of them. So I sat down with someone who might have answers - Mary Daly, President and CEO of the San Francisco Fed. She's one of the people actually making the decisions that affect your money. Five big things I wanted to understand: Why everything still feels so expensive What's really happening with jobs Why Wall Street and Main Street feel like different planets How the Fed makes these massive decisions Whether they can actually fix this00:00 Intro02:10 Some History07:30 Price Stability 10:33 The Fed Test11:05 The Price Problem18:47 The Labor Market22:52 The Path ForwardSourceshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laSqNpmCeQk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxTnOWDw31shttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mL-OaWx9LrMhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLyh5fSTLLwhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7nj2X-yl_U&t=12shttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVDE5Q74EhM&t=253shttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=512mhHUoJgkhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jheesQ8ot3ghttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8b03af6b670https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTivWJvGYtIhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kuNCfkDtPNk

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly says she believes it's appropriate for the US central bank to begin cutting interest rates. In a conversation with Bloomberg's Michael McKee in San Francisco, Daly says “The time to adjust policy is upon us.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mary C. Daly leads the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and will deliver remarks on monetary policy and the economy followed by Q&A. In 2024, Dr. Daly became a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve System. Dr. Daly assumed leadership of the San Francisco Fed in October 2018, building on a distinguished career at the Bank that began in 1996. Starting as an economist specializing in labor market dynamics and economic inequality, she has since served as research advisor, vice president and head of macroeconomics, senior vice president and assistant director of research, and executive vice president and director of research. In Partnership with The San Francisco Press Club.   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

(AURN News) - Climate change and increasing extreme heat pose a severe risk to labor productivity, particularly in outdoor industries like construction, threatening to hamper economic growth in the coming decades, according to a new analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. In a recent economic letter, the San Francisco Fed pointed to mounting evidence that extreme heat is already taking a toll on worker productivity, especially for those toiling outdoors in sectors like construction. The productivity losses, if left unchecked, could have cascading and long-lasting effects on the broader U.S. economy. "The labor productivity losses in construction today could have long-lasting effects on the U.S. economy because construction is important for investment," the letter stated. "If extreme heat lowers investment today, then it will slow the accumulation of capital for future use and have long-lasting impacts on economic outcomes." The San Francisco Fed's analysis also highlights that by the year 2200, the U.S. capital stock would be 5.4% smaller and annual consumption 1.8% lower than it would have been without the extreme heat impacts. Capital stock refers to the total amount of machinery, equipment, and other productive assets retained for future production. "Decreases in construction productivity slow capital accumulation and therefore have long-lasting effects on macroeconomic outcomes," the authors wrote. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mary Daly is the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and is also a 28-year veteran of the Federal Reserve System. President Daly joins David for this special live episode of Macro Musings to talk about her non-linear career path to the world of monetary policy, the long-term economic impacts of AI, the future outlook for Fed policy and the Fed's framework, and much more.   Transcript for this week's episode.   Mary's Twitter: @MaryDalyEcon Mary's San Francisco Fed profile   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Facts, Fears, and Functionality of NGDP Level Targeting* by David Beckworth   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:01:30) – Mary Daly's Background   (00:06:09) – Recent Inflationary Trends and the Future of Fed Policy   (00:15:39) – The Trajectory of R-Star Over the Medium to Long-Run   (00:19:06) – The Long-Term Economic Impacts of AI   (00:29:51) – Expectations for the Upcoming Fed Framework Review   (00:33:35) – Prospects for Nominal GDP Targeting at the Fed   (00:36:58) – Fed Policymaking During an Election Year   (00:38:16) – Audience Q&A Period   (01:01:09) – Outro

Blake and David delve into the effects of remote work on accountant salaries and the mental health challenges faced by auditors at Big Four firms. They inspect a recent study showing lower pay for hybrid workers compared to fully remote or in-office employees. They also contemplate the future of work organization inspired by Bill Anderson, CEO of Bayer, and discuss the potential impact of AI on the accounting profession, the accuracy of AI-related surveys, and the misrepresentation of AI capabilities in recent news headlines.SponsorsLiveFlow - http://accountingpodcast.promo/liveflow Uncat - http://accountingpodcast.promo/uncatEarmark - https://earmark.appSettle - http://accountingpodcast.promo/settleChapters(00:34) - Will accountants soon earn overtime pay? (04:57) - Listener writes in about their own audit experience at a Top-30 firm (08:14) - Trump's Truth Social audit update (14:44) - PCAOB proposed audit metrics (20:44) - 71% of Big 4 auditors worry about mental health (23:27) - Blake shares a clip from new Bayer CEO (33:48) - H&R Block employees prefer remote work (38:14) - Remote accountants get paid less (39:35) - Executives and managers perceive in-office workers as higher performers (42:06) - The four day work week is becoming more common (45:27) - Cody writes in about Big 4 vs industry (47:09) - Hannah asks about outsourcing and offshoring costs (49:59) - Amazon Fresh stores were using Indian employees for "just walk out" tech (55:22) - Shohei Ohtani's translator charged in sports gambling case (58:14) - Accounting Today wrongly claims accountants are saving 30 hours a week on average using AI (01:01:34) - Blake shares a clip from the All In podcast on the future of AI (01:04:48) - Is it time for a new ERP system? (01:07:47) - Thanks for listening and remember to subscribe  Show Notes71% of Big 4 Auditors Worry About Mental Health | CFO             https://www.cfo.com/news/71-of-big-4-auditors-worry-about-mental-health/712063/ Will Getting Rid of Bosses Fix the Workplace? - The Journal. - WSJ Podcastshttps://www.wsj.com/podcasts/the-journal/will-getting-rid-of-bosses-fix-the-workplace/fc0d31d3-2d08-441e-abd8-d77b660fe258 59% of accountants use AI to save about 30 hours a week on tasks | Accounting Todayhttps://www.accountingtoday.com/news/59-of-accountants-use-ai-to-save-about-30-hours-a-week-on-tasks Y Combinator wants to fund new enterprise resource planning (ERP) software"https://www.instagram.com/reel/C3-zHmOIqbI/?igsh=dTMxMDBjNGg3a2p0 Ohtani translator charged with stealing millions for 19,000 bets | Accounting Todayhttps://www.accountingtoday.com/articles/ohtani-translator-charged-with-stealing-millions-for-19-000-bets KPMG Fined Record $25 Million in Exam-Cheating Scandal – WSJhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/kpmg-fined-25-million-over-alleged-netherlands-exam-cheating-a4dcba2a?st=yl6xiqm8nh6gug8 Botkeeper Infinite replaces outsourcing with more AI to help firms automate | Accounting Todayhttps://www.accountingtoday.com/news/botkeeper-infinite-replaces-outsourcing-with-more-ai-to-help-firms-automate More Companies Adopt 4-Day Work Week - CPA Practice Advisor        https://www.cpapracticeadvisor.com/2024/03/27/more-companies-adopt-4-day-work-week/103199/ When Layoffs Happen, Remote Workers Are Hardest Hit - WSJ               https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/layoffs-remote-work-data-980ed59d?reflink=integratedwebview_share Does Working from Home Boost Productivity Growth? | San Francisco Fed     https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2024/january/does-working-from-home-boost-productivity-growth/Trump Media's Accounting Firm Has Audit Deficiency History https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-media-accounting-firm-history-150150627.html Amazon's Just Walk Out Actually Uses 1,000 People in Indiahttps://www.businessinsider.com/amazons-just-walk-out-actually-1-000-people-in-india-2024-4 PCAOB Wallops KPMG Netherlands With Record $25M Fine For Exam Cheatinghttps://www.cpapracticeadvisor.com/2024/04/10/pcaob-wallops-kpmg-in-the-netherlands-with-25-million-fine-for-exam-cheating/103803/ PCAOB crackdown shifting to focus on auditing firmshttps://www.accountingtoday.com/news/pcaob-crackdown-shifting-to-focus-on-auditing-firms PCAOB Proposal Would Require Audit Firms to Disclose a Variety of Metricshttps://www.cpapracticeadvisor.com/2024/04/10/pcaob-issues-proposal-requiring-audit-firms-to-disclose-variety-of-metrics/103758/ PCAOB proposals call for firms to disclose more about themselveshttps://www.journalofaccountancy.com/news/2024/apr/pcaob-proposals-call-firms-to-disclose-more-about-themselves.html Only 48% of accounting, consulting, legal, and private capital professionals have used AI tools at work despite near ...

Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy,  says the path for equities is higher in 2024. Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO, breaks down record-high Black Friday sales. Aaron David Miller, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Senior Fellow, discusses the latest on the Israel-Hamas war. Torsten Slok, Chief Economist, Apollo Global Management, says the Fed's rate policy is leading to a gradual slowdown.  Steve Schwarzman, Chairman & CEO of Blackstone Inc., says his firm has seen a bevy of buying opportunities in real estate across Europe. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance    Full transcript:  This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrell and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. We begin the program with Lori Cavasina, head of US ecority Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Lori, good morning. We hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving. I want to kick off with your call fifty one hundred for five thousand rather year rent on the s and P five hundred for next year Deutsche Bank going one further, a fifty one hundred, Lurie talk to us about the path to five k. Well, thanks for having me as always, and look, you know we purposefully did not put out you know, we see a near term pullback and a resurgence. I think a lot of people got caught in that trap in twenty twenty three calling for a near term pullback in the first quarter that didn't end up happening. I do think we'll be watching our sentiment indicator very closely. It's been the best star in the sky to navigate the equity market this year, but it's also round tripped a couple of times. It started out giving you a screaming by signal because of deep pessimism. Return to that post. SBB gave a sales signal in August and then gave a by signal again in November. So I think we're going to have to just be very tactical in that. You know, I have been telling people November is very consistently a strong month, but December is a little bit more hit or miss. So we'll see if we end up getting the Santa or Grinch in December. But I do think the path for equities is higher next year, and if we do have a bit of a short term pullback either in December to start the year, I expect it to be temporary. Llurie Goldman Sachs had a note thanks zero Edge for this on sales girls looking out two years twenty three, twenty four to twenty five and the difference between them magnificent seven with eleven percent sales grows versus the SPX four ninety three of three percent sales growth. Why would anybody sell the magnificent seven right now? I think it's a great question, Tom. When we look at our indicators and we look at the megacap growth trade broadly, it looks crowded. If you look at the weekly CFTC data on Nasdaq one hundred futures positioning, we're basically close to peak valuation and growth relative to value. If you look at the rustle one thousand on a weighted PE multiple, which is going to be very heavily influenced by that magnificent seven. And if you look at earning's momentum, we're still seeing better earnings revision trends and growth and value, but value is starting to catch up a little bit, so we are seeing that leadership on the earning side fade a little bit. All of that tells me that there should be a pause in growth leadership at some point. But I think one of the reasons people can't really permanently quit these growth stocks is kind of hitting on exactly what you said, the idea that there will be superior growth there over the intermediate term. And if you look at GDP forecasts for next year one percent in real terms anticipated by the street one point eighty percent in twenty twenty five. When we're in a sub two percent GDP environment, growth stocks usually do outperform because economic growth is perceived to be scarce. So I do think there is a real tension. You know, we still like the tech sector even though we have these shorter term tactical concerns on growth, had those tactical concerns on growth frankly for a while, and they've yet to really materialize in a big way. And I do feel like you may need to see a real ratcheting up of GDP expectations before you can really see growth loose some of that leadership dominance. When you talk about sentiment and how really that's been the loadstone for you, it's figuring out where is investor sentiment em betting against it? Am I correct? Basically? You know, one of the things I've learned over my career, Lisa, is that when everybody is really really pessimistic, that's usually a fantastic time to buy. If you look at when the AAII net bullishness indicator is, you know, sort of one standard deviation or two standard deviations below the long term average. I forget the exact stat, but it's in the eighties in terms of the percent of time that you're up twelve months later. And you see similar stats if you look on the flip side when people are overly enthusiastic. Now, if you're above one standard deviation on extreme optimism, you still tend to see like a five percent gain over the next twelve months. So it's not necessarily a washout, but it does tell you that you tend to see consolidation. You do tend to see some choppier markets, And I think that's why it's so important, Lisa to really prioritize data over narratives. I know a lot of strategists like to tell a great story and then they go out and put together their charts to try to fit whatever narrative they're pushing out there. But I really think that you have to stick to the data, and things like that centiment indicator will keep you into falling into consensus traps. Again, everybody just sort of gloms onto the same narrative and things get too extreme. Well, the narrative that we've been hearing again and again is five thousand on the SMP going into next year at least, if not more, And there has been a sort of boom and optimism that we've seen. Does that mean it's time to start taking some chips off the table and to be a little bit less optimistic or does this mean that finally you might see some of that cash at record levels going into the equity market. Well, it's interestingly so you know, everybody wants to sort of talk about this idea, and this is maybe on the more barish side of the table that bonds look more attractive than stocks and the earning shield has collapsed relative to the bond yield, and all that is true, But if you actually go back, there have been periods in history when equity investors or investors in general have taken up both their equity allocations and their bond allocations at the same time. So I don't think it's unheard of for both to do. Well, you know, five thousand, it's starting to be a number we're hearing a lot. I think we were maybe the second person on the cell side that had it when we put ours out, but you are starting to hear about it. And I think ten percent is usually a reasonable place that a lot of strategists start, we do have one model that can take us up to fifty three hundred, and that's looking at our valuation work and earning's work. And I will tell you, Lisa, like and as I was putting the report together, you always think about kind of where did you go wrong in the past year. I was more optimistic than most, but not optimistic in the end. And that valuation model was the one thing that was telling me all year to look for forty seven hundred, forty eight hundred on the S and P it's pointing to forty seven hundred on the end of the year. Now twenty twenty three one point it was saying forty eight forty nine. So I do think you have to have a little bit of humility when you look at these forecasts. We look at a bunch of different models. We take the median. Some are more constructive, some are less. But I do think we do have to pay attention to that bowl case setting into next year, because so it's really what works this year? Does that mean a banner? Kelvistin says fifty three hundred. I'd like we could go there quite I think we stick with five K. I just wanted to jump in when you were putting this together. Surely five K was something like twenty percent upside of the time. So you know, John, I started back in October pricing the models, and we actually published a report in October where we said we're not going to do our target yet, but here's what all the models are showing. And back then we were getting, you know, more a little bit of a more subdued number because we had a lower starting point, so we did price everything. As of mid November, I think a lot of our models we froze as November fifteenth, November sixteenth, so we really are kind of getting sort of a true ten percent from current conditions as of mid November. Basically, when I do this, John, I go into a black hole for a few days, don't answer my phone, don't answer email, and don't talk to anybody, and update all at once. So well, welcome Bocasta the black hole, Laurie. We're happy to see you, Lori Cavasena. Obviously, Capital Markets, there's no one better to speak to on this. As if you stand at the four corners of fifty seventh Street and Fifth Avenue, the Dana Telsea is a child gazing upon Berg Dorth Goodman and across the street to Tiffany's and where Louis Vuton is now when there's some other unpronounceable I can't afford store on the other corner. Telsea joins us now CEO, chief Research officer of her Telsey Advisory Group. You got this right. A lot of people got this wrong. How did you expect this optimism that we come out of the season. Well, thank you very much for having me, and hope you guys had a great holiday. Here's I think overall, keep in mind we did have a barrage of earnings reports all talking about the cautious consumer inventory levels are lean. Promotions were in place thirty to forty That isn't outstanding, that isn't going off the rails. In terms of level of promotions, they were definitely clean. What you saw in terms of traffic, look at the Lululemons, the bathroom, body works. Macy's had more traffic than what you had at Nordstrom, and off prices like TJX had a ton of traffic. And the teen retailers picked up the reason why, value and innovation. If you add value and you had innovation, the consumer was coming So look at Uggs and Hoka where there was innovation. You look at the value on the pricing. It meant something. But we have a long season coming up now. Christmas is on a Monday. Watch that weekend before Christmas. Because procrastinators, it's their choice of when they want to spend. Just let's build them that this idea of watch what happens later in the season. Are you saying that you suspect people brought forward their shopping much more than they had in the past because they are being cautious. So the numbers are inflated to represent that more than just excessive spending altogether. Yes, I think. You look at the savings rate which has come down, You take a look at delinquencies which have gone up, and you look at what's happened with the pattern of promotions. It began in October, So with Amazon Prime Day in October their second Prime Day, you had a pull forward of what the promos were, and of course online is going to be strong. Stores are no longer open on Thanksgiving Day? So what did people do? They shop with their phone? Mobile mattered? Well, this really raises this question. Is it the modality of shopping that matters? Right now or is it the type of product mix that matters right now? And I'm curious, can you parse that up? Is it just online shopping or is it the products that people are getting online. It's the products that people are getting, and don't throw out the stores. The stores matter, the engagement that people have, the social interaction. So many companies in twenty twenty three came out with new store formats. You look at on mall and off mall, they both won and even outlets are strong. And that measure for value, where's the best total return of twelve months? You and Joe Feldman they're not on speaking terms on this, but the basic idea of which kind of retail and which individual stock is the best possibility off price I think is going to win over the next twelve months. TJ Max, would you off price? Off price? Not luxury, different world, it's off price. It's the TJ max Is of the world, the Burlington's and the Ross stores. Why they're getting the benefit of a trade down. Look at what you just saw in their results last week when they each delivered same store sales of at least five percent, when you typically these are three percent same store sales increases. They're getting the benefit of the trade down. There's been a heritage of Tjmax executing what's the secret sauce that makes them do that? The experience of their buyers. They know how to buy, They have their relationships with brands. Brands like being in their stores and they sell through and don't forget their locations. The description that you're painting of the American consumer is not that positive. It's one that is trading down. As you said, it's one that has caution that might not show up in force before that Monday Christmas. So where are we in this cycle, right? I mean, is this a matter of people running out of money or is it just them saying, well, we've been spending a lot recently. We probably should be a little more prudent. They had more money two years ago with the stimulus package during the pandemic. The load to middle income consumer is battered right now by higher interest rates. Even though inflation's moderating, it's still a higher price than it was in the past. And even you take a look at the luxury consumer, you need the feel good factor. With the geopolitical issues going on, the macro headwinds out there and the volatility the stock market, it makes it more challenging. So that's why experience. Look at the tailor swift concerts over the summer, what people are willing to spend on. Give them something innovative, they'll be there. So what does it say about the trajectory of the consumer and how people are going to be spending. Is it the beginning of more pain or is this basically the bulk of it. I think this is in the middle of the pain that we're I think the focus on essentials is right there. I think you need newness in order to drive demand. And even though the labor market continues to remain very good, the watchwords are out there and saying what's it going to look like? And inventory is cleaner, so you don't need to promote as deeply as you had in the past. Look at what's happening with the department stores. They're ordering more cautiously, and why are they ordering cautiously if they don't feel the demand is going to be there. They'd rather sell at full price than markdowns. And your most profitable markdown is your lowest markdown, not your greatest markdown. Toughest job in retail this year is a guy named Sabata Dico at Gucci absolute toughest, toughest job. Dana Telsey on what Gucci's going to do right off that corner of Fifth Avenue and fifty seventh. I think they're going more basic than they've ever been before. Absolutely, they're going away from what the idiocy was for three years. Yeah, the mismatching of the three years is all about matching now and it's about safe. They're going back back to their archives and seeing what can they reinvent and updated proof that we want that. Is there a proof that will sell to the Chinese? I think there's some proof it will sell to the Chinese, But we're not seeing the Chinese travel yet. We need them traveling to really drive demand. And don't forget you're seeing the local Europeans slow down. Also, what do you make of the buy now, Pay Later and we were hearing that it's actually picking up. Do you buy that? Do you think that this is a positive sign for the retail world or is it a negative sign that people are just basically turning to leverage. People are turning towards leverage. When buy Now, Pay Later first came out, it was a huge event. A huge development because it got younger people and frankly the millennials to spend. I think now that it's been around for a few years, if they can't pay on time, they're willing to delay and frankly be able to extend what their payment terms are. Is it changing charge cards? I mean, is buy now, pay later changing the charge card business? Not what we've seen. It didn't take off tremendously. It took off with a certain graphic and those are the millennials single best buke go. I think that it's going to be TJX. I think TJX is going to be the winner for Holiday in twenty twenty four. Dana, thank you for the brief. Dana Telsey with Telsey Advisory Group. Here we have seen far too much of him. He is an expert on turmoil, war and terrorism. Aaron David Miller with a continued brief, Senior Fellow Carnegie Endowment for International Piece. Aaron, just let me just cut to the chase. If we get out to a point of negotiation from where you sit, is there a hamas to negotiate with? Now there is, and the cutteries and the Americans are validating Hamas's effectiveness. The three of you are better analysts than I am, because you've i think, identified the core questions. There's growing daylight. The world is mad at Joe Biden, even though I think frank his own party's mad at him. There's a degree twenty five years at Department of State, I've never seen, never the degree of dissension and vocal opposition to an administration's policy from inside the foreign policy and national security space. On one resignation, but an extraordinary amount of noise. I think the President Frankly handled this pretty effectively. The Israeli Lebanese border is relatively quiet. The fears of escalation into a regional war which could produce plunging financial markets and rising up prices. So far that's been avoided, And you're right to focus on ostages, but I think the deal is very clear. I'd be stunned, frankly, if this humanitarian past collapsed. Hamas is trading hostages for time. They're hoping that the hostage families inside of Israel will continue to pressure the government in order to redeem all of the hostages that have not been The Arabs are angry, and THEWS earliers are going to face probably in the next week. If the ten hostages for a day of quiet, which is the offer on the table, If Amas accepts that doesn't add requests for more Palestinian prisoners, you could get another week out of this. But at some point the Israelis are going to want to resume in their ground campaign, and at that point, I think you're going to see growing awkwardness and uncomfortableness, maybe even tension in the US Israeli relationship. There's daylight between President Biden and some of his own members within his party, within his team that he has surrounding him. But he also reportedly has expressed concern about the collateral damage, about the civilians who have gotten killed, the incredible number, more than people had originally expected. How much is that going to lead to pressure in a new way that Benjamin not to Yahoo, who is not exactly popular at home, we'll have to listen to. I think that's the core question. President persona alone among modern presidents, he considers himself part of the Israeli story and is preternaturally his emotional support for Israel literally is impressed on his DNA. The politics. As you point out, he has to be concerned about rising the rising type opposition the Democratic Party, but the Republicans, who have emerged as the sort of Israel right or wrong party, are also waiting for him to pressure the Israelis so that they can pressure Joe Biden. And finally, there's I think the president's realization that he doesn't have many good answers to the two or three critical questions that the Israelis are facing with. How do you prosecute a ward to eradicate Hamas without an exponential rise in Palestinian desks? How do you surge humanitarian assistance into a war zone? And finally, what do you do about the proverbial day after its weeks and months after? So I think part of the reason he's reluctant to press the Israeli's hard so far is because he doesn't have better answers for them these core questions. Aaron David Miller a student of this, with your books back thirty years, don't go out thirty years for but I'm going to give you five years or ten years forward. Is our relationship with Israel irrevocably changed? A fascinating question. The headline would suggest that generational changes in voter constituency in Congress. The growing divergence between United States and the values proposition that Israel is a liberal democracy more or less seeking the same things that we do, and growing policy differences suggest that, yeah, there is a lot of fraud tension in this relationship. Whether it's a headline or a trend line, that's the key issue. I suspect that the operating system that has kept the US's a Reeli relationship pretty much very close together is going to continue for quite some time. But again, we support Israel because it's an American interest to do so, and because it reflects American values to do so. When those things change in the face of our right wing Israeli government that's pursuing opposite policies both at home and with respect to diplomacy on the Israeli Polish Ennian issue, then I think the US is really relationship will begin to change. That tension is continuing to build. And thank you so fantastic to hear from you, Aaron David Miller. There of the kind of endowment for international pain. Torsten Sluck He's chief economist at Appalled Global Management and writes a piercing short note each morning and here he hearkens back to the skeletons in the closet, the worries that those older have about is this time like well, try nineteen seventy two, Is this time like a nifty to fifty or the point where Polaroid and Xerox were one of the five Magnificent five that we're out there, Doctor Slock joins us this morning, I loved the equal multiples. Now with nineteen seventy two, I believe that ended ugly. Do you take that over to an analog that this will end ugly? Well, we still, of course have to wait and see exactly how AI will be used, and no one really knows how it'll be implemented, and how much productivity we'll get out of it, how much more consumption or welfare overall. But the bottom line really is what we can track is the valuations, And what I did right in the note today is exactly that the valuations and the trajectory is beginning to look quite similar, including the levels we're at with the pe for AI stocks or the Magnificent seven. Now at above fifty on a trailing basis, it does make you wonder a little bit whether this is indeed going to have a different story compared to what we've seen before, or whether this is actually going to be similard some I mentioned Tom Galvin years ago at Donald sim Lufkin Generator was very top line sales specific. Are we going to have the nominal GDP to support the magnificent seven even if they level out, or to bring the breadth up in a good market. Well, the problem is that the SMP four ninety three has basically been flat for the last year. So the conclusion is that so far all the market gains have been driven by this handful of stocks. So that of course also should bring us all to the discussion, Okay, is this sustainable? To what degree? Is this something that is a good representation of the oral index? If you really end up just buying into one simple story, namely AI, which is the reason why a lot of people are focused on the consumer to understand exactly where we are in this spending picture. And I want to go back to what we really began with this idea of are we seeing sustained sales and a sustained strong consumer or are we just seeing these shifts underway regardless of who ends up benefiting the most. But shifts underway. That represents strength in pockets in the overall picture. Yeah, and absolutely, I do think that it's clear that the shifts have been towards services. So that's why goods have generally been slowing down. Another strength point, as you're pointing out, is that we've also seen strengthen online. But if you really back up and look at the data for how is the consumer doing. Well, we just heard your previous guests talk about trading down. If you look at the language rates for all the loans have been going up, the language rates for credit cards have been going up. We're seeing across the board the level of interest rates are beginning to bite harder and harder and harder on consumers. So the conclusion, of course, is that the FED is actually achieving exactly what the textbook would have predicted. Namely, the slowdown might not have been as fast as we all thought just a few quarters ago, but it is still playing out. The slowdown is here and it will continue. We still have the worst ahead of us. It is the case that monetary policy is biting continuously also going forward, what's the distance between goldilocks and a full blown recession. Well, the runway that we are on here for slowing the economy down. From a FED perspective, certainly is that inflation is coming down. The labor market is also gradually coming down, and we got to get a soft landing not only in invasion but also the labor market. But we begin to see that on a plant rate has gone up from three point falls now at three point nine. That's create a lot of discussion about the PSAM rule and to what degree that's an indicator of a recession or not. But the conclusion to your question, Lisa is I do think that we should view this in the broader context of what is it the FIT is trying to do? And the FIT is trying to slow the economy down. That's why they raise interest rates, they raise interust rates because they want us to buy fewer costs fuel wash us fuel refrigerators, let's furniture, let fewer iPhones, and because of that we should over time continue to see that process play out. There is a real tension right now, and I see this under the notes underpinning the notes calling for five thousand or fifty one hundred on the S and P by the end of next year, which is how the federal respond to the slowdown that they wrought that they wanted to see. Will they cut rates aggressively just simply because they're tightening the screws at a faster pace as growth slows. Do you buy that they will do that even if it keeps perhaps the economy flow and prolongs this period of disinflation. This is a really important discussion in teams. In M language, we are looking at the tailor rule. How much weight do they put on inflation? How much weight do they put on the labor market. So far, all the weight has almost entirely been on inflation. And the question is next year, once inflation does get closer to two, will they begin to shift their attention over towards the label market? In other words, are the coefficients changing so that we put more weight on the label market. Now that the labor market is beginning to show some signs of weakening, I appreciate that jobless claims are not slowing, but the work week is coming down. If you look at job openings is coming down. A number of indicators are suggesting that label demand is weakening. So I do think that they will begin to shift away from focusing purely on inflation to begin to focus. Also more on the label a slock rule. It's like the tailor. I'm inventing it right now. Focus the slock rule. Look for this. The slock rules is three months moving average and non farm payrolls. What statistic do we need on a three months moving average of non farm payrolls? Where we make the great tailor to slock shift. See if you look at your latest number for a non found it was one hundred and fifty thousand. If idays one eighty eight two, and if I type Ecoco on Bloomberg, I will see that by second quarter of next year, non found paybrows will on average fall April, May and June be thirty five thousand. So now goes not wondering, thirty five thousand, So that is not wondering. That's the average, So that can have some fluctuation. I was not wondering. I always say this and p going to trade. If we get thirty five thousand and non fund payrose, what if it even goes below zero? The risk is here that we may have a runway and the lack of effects of Martins hear pology essentially beginning to be a big a trag on growth. Adobe just out Amy, Thank you so much for this. This is Bramo spending this weekend. Adobe a twelve billion to twelve point four billion Cyber Monday spend last year was eleven point three billion. But to your distinction, that's cyber that's just we're parsing out how all of us are glued to Amazon and it's cyber Monday today, let alone all the other spending that we've seen over this period of time. Really, I mean, honestly, the distortions have been incredibly difficult to really pick up on, which is the reason why I'm listening to what you're saying toward Sten, this idea of the labor market weakening and the FED maybe responding to that, and I'm thinking about, well, people still have money to spend, Their real wages are actually going up, and oh yeah, this is a job full recession that people are accepting. This is what they say, right, that people are hoarding labor, this is a new world. Do you push back against that? Well, there is in your weekend reading from the Fed the working papers that write about this. There is some debate between the Boston Fed, the San Francisco Fed, the New York Fed, has also written about this. The Board of Prominence has also written about this. The key issue still is it's very clear that we are ultimately running out of savings, excess savings in the household sex. So the question is some people view that has already happened, other view that's about now, other view that may only happen in the next few quarters. But the trend is very clear. The fit is getting what they want. They want a slowdown, and that's why you will also madly get excess savings running out. And let's not forget student dont payment started on the first of Octoba. That's why retail sales for Octoba was readtivy week. If we put all these things together, I still think that the slowdown continues. Deutsche Bank put out a forecast for one hundred and seventy five basis points of FED rate cuts next year. Is that feasible with the recipe that you just put out there. Well, that does require, of course quite a hot slowdown in the economy. That certainly requires a recession and a hot landing. The question is that's not what the contentious is expecting at the moment. But it's clear that if we do get a shop all slow down, and that is also what the contentious is expecting. It's just above ceral DP is expecting it below zero. Both scenarios make sense on their own, but the conclusion still is we still have more downside risk from where we are at the moment. I got to go back to your day job a couple of years ago before you got this easy slog with Apollo, and that was a Deutsche Bank Rischie Senak, the Prime Minister told our Francine Lacroix adamantly he is not prescribing austerity. You and folk arts Landau live this at Deutsche Bank, of the continent of Europe and of the United Kingdom. Is there a risk they slip into an incorrect austere policy. Well, the problem is that both the UK and EU have some same list of problems at the US broadly speaking, and then have some addition. We stimulus. We did a lock in New world stimulus. They're stuck in the old world. Isn't that simple? Well, in some sense, fiscal policy is certainly very different. In the US. It was much more aggressive than what it was in the UK and Europe, and in that sense, all the rules that in particular the growth constability plaque in Europe but also in the UK have certainly played a very critical role in why fiscal policy has been very different in the UK relative to the US. The fiscal policy will be more expensive than perhaps some people would say given where rates are. That's what we saw from Germany and the recent prognostications over there. Do you think auctions matter? I do think auctions matter a lot. And as you know, as you just talked about two year, three year, a five years and seven year this week is very important. And if you go also and look at the auction sizes over the last several months, they have gone up and as they continue to go up. The risk really here is that short rates may eventually come down, but we may have a steepener because long rates may potentially not come down as much because now we are dealing with this supply issue that potentially to put up what pressure and limit how much of a time we can get in loong rates. Let's revisit a banner from two hours ago. Outnumbered again, Pharaoh gone slock here. Auctions matter two, No one cares one. I think we were at two before. Now I think we're at three. Yeah, you know, it's just so it's like three to one is how we're going to take that matter. It depends if you care. I care auction a few weeks ago with a matter quite alone, Yes, exactly. Thank you doctor, Please of the tursen go away at least till next week by Steve Schwartzman of course Blackstone. Steve, thank you. You were just on stage with the Prime Ministeryunak. How much are you putting in the UK? What are you most excited about when it comes to the UK growth. Well, we've been putting a lot of money into the UK. First of all, we're doing our headquarters building here, which is very significant size building. It will be the largest built in the Mayfair area in the last several decades. We bought two companies in the last two weeks in the United States in the UK, and you know we have a total of seventy billion pounds that's close to ninety billion dollars of investments in the UK with thirty seven thousand people working in these companies in real estate. See what stands out as the biggest strength actually for the UK. So there are many questions. There was an autumn statement we're not sure how they're going to fund some of the tax cuts if they continue down the road, and we don't know if the Conservatives are in power in twelve months. Well, the big advantages of the UK are the English language, the rule of law. They have a terrific university system, they have a great life science areas. They're the number one tourist area in Europe, which actually I found surprising, and so they have a lot of pockets of strength. They've been through a complex time politically, but if you look longer term, the rule of law in the UK is very strong. Their regulatory posture has been quite consistent over time. But we forget that these are good things and not all places in the world have them, and so I think I'm not an expert on the UK, you know, sort of laws in the sense of what they're doing politically. I think their autumn statement on balance, which was stimulative, is and necessary thing for their economy. And they have a much more open approach to immigration at the top levels of education, which is good for helping to power an economy. So I think there's some interesting things going on here. Steve, what can you tell us about private market valuations at Pe firms? So in general. Do you see LPs actually demanding more information on marks and more reporting requirements and evaluation. Is that something that's shifting. I don't see a big set of enormous concerns on that. What always happens at this stage and the cycle, you know, when you go to very high interest rates and the world sort of starts slowing down, is that deals slow down. So for l P is their biggest concern is they're not getting capital flows back that they normally were depending on. Just people aren't selling assets. These types of cycles always end and things returns to normal. It's quite interesting that, you know, we just did two deals in the UK in the last two weeks, one in the affordable in what they call social housing area, one in computer software. Both are million billion dollar, two billion dollar type deals. We're doing a number of things in the US now, some of which have been announced, some of which haven't. We just were involved with a situation in Norway that's twelve billion dollars. So the deal business is not totally in mothballs, and these things start again, and I think we're more on that side of the cycle. Although it has been you know, somewhat dreary for a year in terms, for example of real estate, I think you're raising an opportunity to stake funds ten billion. How's that going, Well, we're raising money for a European fund. Actually, we're always raising money for a lot of funds for ran scene, and you know, we're gone through a big fund raising cycle. So we have over two hundred billion dollars. It's one of the biggest pools of uninvested capital in the world and that will be deployed in due course. Interestingly, in real estate, which you just asked about, we're seeing a good deal of volume of buying things in Europe because European real estate is under pressure in large parts because interest rates were so low here for so long. Sometimes in countries they were negative, so the barring costs to own real estate were next to nothing, and now it's closer to six percent. So if you have to carry a whole portfolio that used to cost you next to nothing at six percent, they need to sell things, you know, it's necessary to just hold their other properties. And so we're seeing some very very good buys in that kind of environment because unlike most people, we have enormous capital and can buy the types of real estate that we like, whether they're data centers, whether they're warehouses, whether they're student housing, where those sectors have done very well. See what can you tell us about great? So, have you seen any redemptions in that? How's that going? It breaks greats? How do you say b r e it t you say b reat Yeah, Well, those those redemptions have gone down. You know, they're I think forty or something like that of what they were a year ago. And so that that pool of capital is actually doing quite well compared to almost all of the real estate, and so you know, we look forward to that sort of ultimately going back to a very normal kind of world. Overall. Does UK politics seem benign compared to the US, but also what we saw in the Netherlands, well, you know, commenting on politics of other countries, let alone our own, which has a sense of drama and you know sort of incredulity is outside of my remit fair Steve Schwartz with a thank you so much. As always, Steve also has to get to another meeting right here, because people are coming and going in all the corridors of course of Hampton Court Palace. John subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday, starting at seven am Eastern. I'm Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is BloombergSee 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San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly joins us exclusively, on the heels of Fed Chair Powell saying the central bank is “not confident” it has done enough to bring inflation down. Plus, how much will macro headwinds weigh on consumer spending this holiday season? Bank of America's retail analyst gives us her preview. And Tripadvisor's CEO is here with his outlook on the holiday travel season, and the growth the company is seeing in the “experience economy.”

War es das jetzt mit weiteren Zinsanhebungen? "Das Zinsplateau ist erreicht, die Märkte sind einerseits beruhigt, andererseits aber wird darauf hingewiesen: Wir können noch mal was tun - aber wir werden es wahrscheinlich nicht." Auf dem Rentenmarkt erwartet Andreas Scholz eine gewisse Volatilität in den nächsten Wochen. Und was macht Europa? Eulen nach Athen tragen (wo die EZB-Sitzung stattfand) oder bereut es nichts? Scholz: "Die Staatsverschuldung hat sich in Europa seit 2008 mehr als verdoppelt." Ein Problem, das nicht nur Europa betrifft. Vom 13.- 17.11 findet in Frankfurt wieder die Euro Finance Week statt. Am Ende dieser Woche sprechen Christine Lagarde und Mary Daly (Präsidentin der San Francisco Fed) auf dem European Banking Congress über die Stabilität des Finanzsystems.

Special thanks to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3F8Luji More or less, there is one market movement right now, even if it has three parts. Bond yields and the dollar are in the same direction; stocks are in the opposite direction. Those three in those respective relationships are all part of one story, not three different stories. In a nutshell, I remain convinced that the story has become one of quantitative tightening. The Fed is a seller (sort of) of Treasuries, not a buyer (meaning they are not rolling over matured bonds). Global central banks are buying less to support their own currencies. And that leaves individuals and economic buyers who buy at good yields but not lower yields. On Capitol Hill, the race for the new speaker is setting up to be a real circus. I know, you are shocked. Gasoline is down over -20% in the last three weeks! Mary Daly of the San Francisco Fed said in a speech today that, wait for it, holding rates where they are is also restrictive monetary policy! Hmmmm, you don't say. Other than that, it was an uneventful day, and the intra-day swing was only -225 points (the chart visually looks more violent) – all in a flat day. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly says policymakers can hold interest rates steady if the labor market and inflation continue to cool, or financial conditions remain tight. She spoke at The Economic Club of New York with Bloomberg's Lisa Abramowicz.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

SUMMARY: A new report from the San Francisco Fed finds that the impact of rate hikes can last much longer than originally thought, over 80% of home buyers are taking climate risks into consideration when buying a home, the trade deficit is lower than expected, and mortgage demand falls to a 27-year low...Monetary Policy's Lasting Effects83% of Prospective Home Buyers Consider Climate RiskMortgage demand drops to 27-year lowTrade deficit lower than expected in JulyDISCLAIMER: TowneBank Mortgage, NMLS #512138, is an equal housing lender. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Hosted by Tyler Cralle #2028201

Proposed regulations for smaller banks show that turmoil in the banking sector may still have an impact on the broader economy.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the links between regulations and the real economy. It's Monday, August 28, at 11 a.m. in New York. In the euphoria of buoyant equity markets over the last few months, the many challenges facing regional banks have receded into the background. While it certainly has not been our view, a narrative has clearly emerged that the issues in the sector that erupted in March are largely behind us. The ratings downgrades by both Moody's and Standard & Poor's of multiple U.S. banks in the last few weeks provide a reminder that the headwinds of increasing capital requirements, higher cost of funding and rising loan losses continue to challenge the business models of the regional banking sector. The rating agency actions come on the heels of proposed rules to modify capital requirements for banks with total assets of 100 billion or more. Separately, the Fed has proposed a capital rule on implementing capital surcharge for the eight U.S. global systemically important banks. Further proposed regulations on new long term debt requirements for banks with assets of $100-700 billion are due to be announced tomorrow. It is early in the rulemaking process for all of these proposals. They may change after the comment period and the rules will be phased in over several years once they are finalized. Nevertheless, they outline the framework of the regulatory regime ahead of us. While we won't go into the detailed discussion of thousands of pages of proposals here, suffice to say that the documents envisage significantly higher capital requirement for much of the U.S. banking sector, and extends several large bank requirements to much smaller banks. One such requirement pertains to the impact on capital of unrealized losses in available for sale securities. Currently, this provision applies only to Category one and Category two banks, that is banks with greater than $700 billion in total assets. But the proposal now expands it to Category three and Category four banks, that is banks with greater than $100 billion in total assets. A recent paper from the San Francisco Fed shows how the regulatory framework of the banking system affects the real economy. Specifically, the paper demonstrates that banks, which experienced larger market value losses on their securities during the 2022 monetary tightening cycle extended less credit to firms. Given the experience of the last 18 months across fixed income markets, extending the impact of such mark-to-market losses to smaller banks, as is being proposed now, would exasperate the potential challenges to credit formation. Against this background, we look at the near term prospects for bank lending. In the latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion survey, reflecting 2Q23 lending conditions, lending standards tightened across nearly all categories for the fourth consecutive quarter. Banks expect to tighten lending standards further across all categories through the year end, with the most tightening coming in commercial real estate, followed by credit card and commercial and industrial loans to small firms. The survey also asked banks to describe current lending standards relative to the midpoint of the standards since 2005. Most banks indicated the lending standards are tighter than the historical midpoint for all categories of commercial real estate and commercial and industrial loans to small firms. The bottom line is that more tightening lies ahead for the broader economy. This survey shows how the evolution of regulatory policy can weigh on credit formation and overall economic growth. Given the disproportionate exposure of the regional banks to commercial real estate debt that needs to be refinanced, commercial real estate is likely to be the arena where pressure has become most evident, another reason why we are skeptical that the turmoil in the regional banking sector is behind us. While the proposed regulatory changes can open doors for non-bank lenders, such as private credit, it is important to note that such lending will likely come at higher cost. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Well, damn it, mortgage rates just hit their highest level in 21 years and Chris, Saied and Haroon are here to tell you why. Spoiler alert, they think the yield curve inversion has something to do with it and that the 10-year treasury has more to move up before the end of the year signaling 8% to end the year for mortgage rates as a possibility. The Fed dropped their minutes where some of the FOMC members were apparently quoted as suggesting that another 25bps increase may be necessary; however, our Chief Economist is declaring shenanigans. Chris pops off on real estate company Compass and apparently Janet Yellen micro-doses mushrooms when she visits China. Resources:Mortgage Rates Just Hit Highest Level In 21 Years (Forbes)Mortgage rates could hit 8%, economists say, citing a worrying sign not seen since the Great Recession (Market Watch)Fed officials see ‘upside risks' to inflation possibly leading to more rate hikes, minutes show (CNBC)Unpaid commissions key ingredient in Compass' cash-flow positivity (The Real Deal)Did Janet Yellen Accidentally Eat Psychedelics In China? What To Know About The Sold-Out Dish Cooked With Hallucinogenic Mushrooms (Forbes)Here's when the San Francisco Fed expects households to run out of COVID-era extra savings (Morning Star)Fed Saw ‘Significant' Inflation Risk That May Merit More Hikes (Bloomberg)How Severe Is the Housing Shortage? It Depends on How You Define ‘Shortage' (Wall Street Journal)Wall Street Is Ready to Scoop Up Commercial Real Estate on the Cheap (Wall Street Journal)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Real yields helped push US 10-year yields higher yesterday. Caution is needed when interpreting market moves in the dull days of summer, but there are concerns that the Federal Reserve may keep rates higher for longer. Fed policy fears are difficult to control, because Fed Chair Powell's 2022 policy errors trashed forward guidance. Work from the San Francisco Fed suggests policymakers are more divided than normal.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news investors are upbeat, positioning that the economic threats will mostly be diffused.First up today, a look at the US Q2 corporate earnings being reported. So far Q2 earnings for the S&P 500, are down sharply from the same period a year ago. But both the number of companies reporting positive earnings surprises and the magnitude of these earnings surprises are above their 10-year averages. So as the current Q2 earnings reporting builds, more results that are better than expected are coming through. This is helping keep Wall Street equity trading in an upbeat mood. And Warren Buffet's company is one of those and has posted record results.But the threat from commercial real estate revaluations keeps on building and has the potential to rock Wall Street at some point.American consumers are facing sharply lower inflation now. It came in at 3.0% in June and we will get the July rate on Friday NZT. Analysts expect that to inch up to 3.3% then although recent data on used car prices have them down almost -12% from a year ago. Now research at the San Francisco Fed shows that "shelter inflation" may in fact turn negative nationwide as rents stumble. So there may be risks to the downside in the upcoming US July CPI.And American consumers are taking out modestly more consumer debt. The growth in this has been restrained for some time with a modest increase of +US$7 bln in May reported. That rose to +$18 bln in June, up +4.3%. These balances have been rising less than +2% pa recently. Prior to 2023 rises of about $30 bln per month were normal and rises of about +5% year-on-year.Across the Pacific, China said its foreign exchange reserves rose to US$3.2 tln in July, although the change was minor, it was more about the exchange rate than anything else, and about what was expected. Foreign direct investment is tumbling, so their FX reserves may now be at a high point.And staying in China, seven well-regarded economists told the Financial Times that their employers had told them some topics were off-limits for public discussion. The China Securities and Regulatory Commission, the stock regulator, has accused brokerage analysts of playing up risks facing the economy, which is suffering from weak consumer demand, declining exports and an ailing property sector. Two think-tank scholars and two brokerage economists, all of whom serve as government advisers, said there was pressure to present economic news positively to increase public confidence.Meanwhile, 48 Chinese Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs) were overdue on commercial paper in July, up from 29 in June, according to a report that referenced data from the Shanghai Commercial Paper Exchange. Their missed payments amounted to ¥1.86 bln (NZ$423 mln), versus ¥780 mln in June. This will aggravate concerns about the financial health of LGFVs, which are mostly tasked with building infrastructure projects that may take years to generate investment returns.Moving on to Europe, although we earlier noted a heady rise of factory orders in Germany in June, German industrial production hasn't responded yet. In fact it came in lower than expected, slipping -1.5% from May and was down -1.7% from June 2022.Globally, air cargo demand fell by -3.4% year-on-year in June, the smallest decline since February 2022. Year-to-date this cargo activity is down -8.1% below last year's level. The declines were similar in the Asia/Pacific region but that actually means the region has gone backwards faster than others from May.The UST 10yr yield will start today at 4.08% and up +4 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$1936/oz and down -US$7 from yesterday.And oil prices are down -US$1 and now at US$81.50/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is just under US$85.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today marginally softer at just on 61 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we are firmish at 55.5 euro cents. That all means the TWI-5 has basically held at 69.5 and up a mere +10 bps in a day.The bitcoin price is slightly lower today since this time yesterday and now at US$28,917 which is down -0.5%. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been low at just under +/- 0.9%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news today is a holiday in many countries, including China and India, and a number of European countries.This week is set to be busy on the global economic front, with a number of key events scheduled. Locally, all eyes will be on Wednesday's labour market report for March. Analysts are expecting little-change with the jobless rate staying at 3.5%. The same day there is a dairy auction. And the same day the RBNZ releases its Financial Stability Review. Later in the week, investors will closely follow the US labour report, and before that both the US Fed and the ECB will update their monetary policy settings. The central banks in Australia, Brazil, Malaysia, and Norway will decide on interest rates, while inflation rates will be released for the Euro Area, Italy, the Philippines, Switzerland, South Korea, Indonesia, and the Netherlands. Finally, PMIs are due from the US, India, Canada, Italy, South Korea, and Russia this week.But first in the US, their central bank faulted itself over the weekend for failing to “take forceful enough action” to address growing risks at Silicon Valley Bank ahead of the lenders collapse, one which raised turmoil across the global banking industry. It is a brutal self-review, reflecting very poorly on supervision by the San Francisco Fed. But behind it all was a 2018 roll-back of post GFC rules, handicapping regulators. Another US agency also released their review as well. The Fed said it will revisit the range of rules that apply to banks with more than US$100 bln in assets, including stress testing and liquidity requirements.Confidence in American financial institutions by American is currently falling, although it isn't yet down to the 2011 or 2008/09 levels.But a lack of confidence has killed another US bank, the regional (California) First Republic Bank. The FDIC has taken it over, firing all the senior management and wiping out all its equity investors. JPMorgan Chase and PNC are among the likely bidders to take over its carcass, a valuable regional market position.Staying in the US, their PCE inflation came in with its smallest increase since July 2022 with this inflation measure up +4.2% from a year ago, and running at a rate of under +2% in March from February. This data will be influential at the Fed.Perhaps the sense of control returning to inflation is helping the mood, despite angst about banks. The widely-watched University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey improved in April with the biggest recovery in the 'current situation'.Also improving, but more sharply, the Chicago PMI jumped in April from its weak 2023 first quarter. It is still contracting, but only barely now. It wasn't an improvement that anyone expected.In China, it is Golden Week, a week-long public holiday where a lot rests on healthy retail shopping. Chinese economic data releases will be few this week.And staying in China, their steel exports are surging, up +50% from year-ago levels. But this is not a good sign. Rather it is a sign that the Chinese post-pandemic recovery is in trouble. Prices for industrial materials are plunging, with steel near a five-year low. The Chinese economy is slowing quite quickly now resulting in supply gluts. Prices had been on the rise since the end of last year in anticipation of an economic recovery after China abandoned its zero-COVID policy, but the expected growth isn't coming. Chinese producers with excess supply are ramping up exports, depressing prices globally.Confirming the post-recovery wobbles, their official factory PMI contracted in April following three months of expansion. It was an unexpected retreat. Their official services PMI is still expanding however at a healthy clip. What won't help their manufacturing sector is their tough new rules about "national security' which are being expanded to include anything Beijing doesn't like. It will be hard for foreign investors to risk getting caught up in that. Some already have and it can get ugly quickly (not unlike being invested in Russia).Late Friday the Bank of Japan issued its Monetary Policy Review and made few changes. But in a light-handed way, new Governor Ueda did signal that change is coming, now that inflation is embedding above 2%. Their very loose monetary policies are now under review even if the regulator still isn't fully convinced that a virtuous cycle of wage growth and price hikes is working.Meanwhile, Japanese retail sales came in +7.2% higher in March that year ago levels, better than the +5.8% expected and almost matching the February burst. Industrial production wasn't as strong however.In the past we have noted the Chinese concerns about food security. Well Japan is waking up to them as well, especially after seeing what is happening in Ukraine and it is increasingly concerned about Chinese expansionist activities in its own neighborhood. If New Zealand get punished by China for not toeing the Beijing line, it appears that Japan may become a more stable alternative. Apparently, Japan sources only 38% of its own food from domestic supplies, the lowest level among G7 nations.While our house prices are generally falling and becoming more affordable, in Australia they are going the other way. House prices there rose at a +10% annual rate in March and a +8.5% annualised rate in April. In Sydney, the rises were even faster. Lack of supply, the interest rate pause and booming immigration is fueling this market. They also are suffering through a very severe rental crisis as well.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.43%, and down -11 bps from this time Friday but most of that fall happened Saturday NZT. The price of gold will start the week at US$1991/oz and very little-changed from week-ago levels.But oil prices have recovered their Friday drop to be just over US$76.50/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is just on US$80/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is marginally firmer against the USD and now at 61.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are firmer too at 93.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up marginally at 56.1 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at 69.9 and actually little-changed since Saturday.The bitcoin price is still meandering today, although back up to US$29,620 and up +1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has stayed modest at +/- 1.4%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

The award winning, Compliance into the Weeds is the only weekly podcast which takes a deep dive into a compliance related topic, literally going into the weeds to more fully explore a subject. In this episode, Matt and I continue our exploration of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and take a deeper dive into the compliance angles. Silicon Valley Bank had taken some big risks which led to depositors having a near-death experience, shareholders losing all their money, and taxpayers ultimately supporting the bank's bailout. Despite the auditors giving an anodyne report on the bank's risk management, the board, management and regulators all missed the big strategic risks. As a result, the bank collapsed, leaving Matt to question whether stakeholders were given the right assurance on the right things. Key Highlights ·      What risk management strategies did SVB senior management and Board miss or ignore that could have prevented the financial disaster? ·      Why did SVB's management decline to pursue improvements to their risk management practices after being warned by BlackRock consultants?  ·      Did regulators miss the red flags raised by the San Francisco Fed examiners 18 months before the collapse of SVB? Notable Quotes: 1.     "We should remember that really, the auditors' report is going to give assurance on two points: Number one, is there a risk of material misstatement in the financial statements? And number two, does the audit firm have any substantial doubt about the organization's ability to continue as a going concern for roughly the next twelve months or so? That's how long it is. But it's those two things." 2.     "When you have Elizabeth Warren and conservatives both raising hell at the same time, it's a valid issue to go and look at then because that does not happen too often." 3.    "It's like nobody had thought about this when really once we rolled back DoddFrank protections and supervisory constraints specifically for mid-sized banks, which Republicans pushed through in 2018, once that happened, that became the systemic risk that regulators had to think about." 4.    "Everybody kind of sort of knew there was a problem, but a whole lot of finger pointing and not enough planning and assurance and communication to the public at large and to investors."  Resources Matt  on LinkedIn Matt on Radical Compliance Tom on LinkedIn Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As we already know, Silicon Valley Bank, one of tech's favorite lenders, has collapsed, becoming the second-largest bank failure in US history. The bank's blowup has sent shockwaves across the tech sector, Wall Street, and Washington, amid concerns that other banks could be in trouble or that contagion could set in. In the days after SVB's collapse, the panic appeared to spread, leading to the failure of additional banks, including Signature Bank of New York, which had bet on crypto. But it's not clear how serious the fallout will be.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss news that Goldman Sachs no longer believes that the Federal Reserve will deliver a rate hike at its meeting next week, citing “recent stress” in the financial sector.Chris and Saied look at comments from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen indicating that a major government bailout of Silicon Valley Bank is not an option.They also offer some thoughts on the departure of Silicon Valley Bank CEO Greg Becker from the board of directors at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You'll Learn in this Show:What actually happened at Silicon Valley Bank and which sector has been hurt most by its collapse.Why 14 years of artificial interest rate deflation and unprecedented interest rate increases were guaranteed to create problems.The bizarre phenomenon of new jobs being implemented on a monthly basis while layoffs continue to happen.How Silicon Valley Bank made the Forbes list of America's Best Banks for the fifth consecutive year.And so much more...Resources:"What's Going on With Silicon Valley Bank?" (article from The Wall Street Journal)"US Discusses Fund to Backstop Deposits If More Banks Fail" (article from Bloomberg)"Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says U.S. government won't bail out Silicon Valley Bank" (article from CNBC)"Strong jobs report shows 311,000 jobs added in February" (article from CBS News)"Fed Rate Pivot Is Back in Play" (article from Bloomberg)"Goldman Sachs no longer expects the Fed to hike rates in March, cites stress on banking system" (article from CNBC)"CEO of failed Silicon Valley Bank no longer a director at San Francisco Fed" (article from Reuters)

"Welcome to Web3 with FTC For February 10th by Fintech Confidential, the place where we keep you up-to-date on the latest developments in the world of Web3, Crypto, Blockchain, NFTs, and Fintech. "Get ready for some fresh and thrilling insights on the crypto and blockchain world right here on Web3 with FTC! No more stale, regurgitated stories. We've got the hottest and newest updates for you."Top stories for today. 1️⃣ Saudi Aramco to Unlock Revolutionary Blockchain Benefits for Employees!2️⃣ Gateway.fm Raising $4.6 Million to Democratize Access Now3️⃣ FTX Japan Resumes Crypto and Fiat Withdrawals!4️⃣ Cameron Winklevoss: US To Miss Out If It Doesn't Embrace Crypto5️⃣ Crypto Hedge Fund Galois Capital Collapses After Suffering $40 Million Loss to FTX6️⃣ Binance in negotiations with US regulators over compliance issues7️⃣ SEC Wants to "Plant Its Flags" on Crypto - Congress Mulls Who Will Police?8️⃣ San Francisco Fed has put out an urgent call for a cryptocurrency specialist.9️⃣ Yuga Labs Gets Roasted on Twitter - BAKC NFT In Tow!Links:Fintech Confidential FOLLOW, LIKE & SUBSCRIBEYouTube: https://youtube.com/@fintechconfidentialPodcast: http://podcast.fintechconfidential.comNewsletter: http://access.fintechconfidential.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/fintechconfidentialTwitter: https://twitter.com/FTconfidentialInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/fintechconfidentialFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/fintechconfidentialSupporters: Support is provided by Solvpath, an A.I.-driven customer support system that uses a visual format and self-serve technology to quickly and effectively resolve issues, resulting in satisfying support experiences for customers. Get the best customer support system for your business. Get Solvpath. Get started by visiting www dot Get Solvpath dot com www.getsolvpath.com This is a production of Diamond D3 Media, with All Rights Reserved. This is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. We strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information but will not be responsible for any missing facts or inaccurate information. You comply and understand that you should use any of this information at your own risk. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial assets, so research and make your own financial decisions. ABOUT: Tedd Huff: President & Founder of Diamond D3, a professional services consulting firm focused on global payments and marketing. He is also a video podcast host and producer of Fintech Confidential and Head of Corporate Strategy at Corvia. Over the past 24 years, he has contributed to FinTech startups as an Advisory Board Member, Co-Founder, and Chief Experience Officer, providing strategic and tactical direction for Global Payments OpenEdge, Heartland Payments, Nuvei, and TSYS, among others, focusing on growth while delivering innovation, process improvements and user experience-driven value to simplify the complexity of payments.Diamond D3, Media: A media...

A lot of the time, economic policy can seem pretty impersonal — cold, hard, data-driven. But at the heart of the Federal Reserve are people: fallible, complicated people who are just doing their best to steer the economy in the right direction. Often, we remember them just for their economic decisions. But today, we're airing two episodes from our daily economics show The Indicator that profile the people inside the Fed. First, we're heading back to the 1970s to revisit Arthur Burns' oft-criticized stint as Fed chair. Next, we have a conversation with Mary Daly, the current president of the San Francisco Fed, about her remarkable path from high school dropout to one of the most important economic voices in the nation.These two Indicator episodes were originally produced by Viet Le and Brittany Cronin. They were fact-checked by Sierra Juarez and Dylan Sloan and edited by Kate Concannon. The Planet Money version was produced by Dylan Sloan, engineered by Josh Newell and edited by Dave Blanchard.Help support Planet Money and get bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.

Today, a conversation with Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Her family faced the pain of high prices and a turbulent economy decades ago, so she dropped out of high school to earn money. That experience, she says, helps guide her today, as the Fed tries to bring down inflation without sparking a recession.For sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org.

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending November 12th, 2022… what's next after a really good report on inflation, the NAHB's latest report on housing affordability, and the ten fastest growing U.S. cities.Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.Economic News We begin with economic news from this past week, and a report on inflation that shows the Fed is making progress with its rate hikes. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a lower-than-expected .4% increase in the October Consumer Price Index which brought the annual rate down to 7.7%. It was 8.2% in September. Stock market investors were pleased that inflation appears to be subsiding, and the Dow closed up more than 1,000 points. But that doesn't mean that the fight is over. Although Fed officials are expressing some amount of optimism, several spoke out about the danger of pausing too soon on the rate hikes. (1)Richmond Fed president Thomas Barkin told CNBC that the Fed had its foot on the gas and is now ready to “pump the brakes.” He explained that likely means the Fed will call for “a slower pace of increases, a longer pace of increase and a potentially higher point.” He sees the Federal Funds rate going as high as 5%, or higher, in smaller increments, before the Fed gets inflation back down to the 2% level. (2)San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly said the CPI report was “indeed good news,” but that 7.7% inflation is still far too high. She said: “It's better than over 8% but it's not close enough to 2 in any way for me to be comfortable. So it's far from a victory.” (3)Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan had similar comments saying the CPI report was “a welcome relief” but that more rate increases are probably needed. She said: “I believe it may soon be appropriate to slow the pace of rate increase so we can better assess how financial and economic conditions are evolving.”The Fed's next meeting in December happens right after the November report on the CPI, so that data will surely impact any rate hike decisions made at that meeting.Mortgage RatesMeanwhile, mortgage rates fell sharply right after the release of the CPI. According to Mortgage News Daily, the average rate on the 30-year fixed-rate loan fell 60 basis points from 7.22% to 6.62%. The Daily's chief operating officer Matthew Graham says: “This is the best argument to date that rates are done rising, but confirmation requires next month's CPI to tell the same story.” (4)Jobless ClaimsThe number of people applying for unemployment was up 7,000 last week to a total of 225,000 initial claims. That's the highest it's been in a month but it's still a low number, although some big companies are announcing layoffs. Jefferies economist Tom Simons says that “Layoff announcements from larger companies have become more frequent. So we are likely to see this number rise in the weeks and months ahead.” Continuing claims were up 6,000 to a total of 1.49 million. (5)In other news making headlines...NAHB: Housing Affordability More Americans are finding it's too expensive to buy a home of their own. The National Association of Home Builders released its third quarter report on housing affordability and it shows that affordability has fallen to its lowest point since the Great Recession. According to the NAHB, just 42.2% of new and existing homes that were sold in Q3 were affordable for families making a median income of $90,000. That percentage was 42.8% in the second quarter. (6)That data includes a drop in the national median home price from $390,000 to $380,000 and an increase in the average mortgage interest rate from 5.33% to 5.72%. Home Equity FallsLower home prices mean that homeowners are also losing some of their equity. According to Black Knight, about $2.5 trillion in home equity has disappeared since May, with the average borrower losing $30,000. Although home equity could fall further, Black Knight's president of data and analytics, Ben Graboske, says that “homeowner positions remain broadly strong.” (7)The report shows that the number of people who are underwater on their loans is only .85%. That's fewer than 500,000 borrowers out of about 53 million U.S. mortgage holders. That's double what it was in May, but it's still considered quite low.Fastest Growing CitiesSome U.S. cities are doing much better than others when it comes to economic growth. The Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise issued a list of the ten fastest growing cities in the nation, and New York is not one of them. (8)It may not surprise you however, that the San Francisco/Bay Area is number one on the list with a 2022 GDP of $1.4 trillion and a GDP growth rate of 4.8%. Austin, Seattle, Raleigh/Durham, and Dallas round out the top five. Denver, Salt Lake City, Charlotte, New Orleans, and Orlando are in the fifth through tenth positions.A few markets that we like for residential investment include the Dallas and Orlando metro areas. The 2022 GDP for Dallas is $682 billion with a 3.1% growth rate. And for Orlando, the GDP is $246 billion with a growth rate of 2.4%.That's it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!You can also join RealWealth for free at newsforinvestors.com to find out more about real estate investing. As a member, you have access to our Learning Center as well as our market data, our experienced investment counselors, and our list of top-notch real estate professionals that can help get you going, or keep you on track, with your investment goals.Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.Links:1 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coming-up-consumer-price-index-for-october-11668086355?mod=economy-politics2 -https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/04/fed-officials-barkin-and-collins-see-possibility-for-slower-rate-hikes-ahead.html3 -https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/10/fed-officials-welcome-inflation-news-but-still-see-tighter-policy-ahead.html4 -https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/10/mortgage-rates-fall-sharply-to-under-7percent-after-inflation-eases.html5 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-tick-higher-in-latest-week-116680877256 -https://eyeonhousing.org/2022/11/unsurprisingly-housing-affordability-continues-to-fall/7 -https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/07/homeowners-lost-1point5-trillion-in-equity-since-may-as-home-prices-drop.html8 - https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/09/fastest-growing-us-cities-kenan-institute.html

During the last big financial crisis there was a lot of talk about the work of Hyman Minsky. Even Janet Yellen, at the time the chair of the San Francisco Fed, said there were a lot of lessons in his work for central bankers. What did she mean? Or, as Steve Keen asks, has she actually read any of his work? This week Phil asks Steve what was the thinking behind Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis. And what was a Minsky moment, and why are we so far from one right now? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The local market ended Friday's session 0.8% lower with every sector aside from energy stocks closing in negative territory. On Friday, investor sentiment was dampened by fears of a global recession but the energy sector offset sharp some of the losses, buoyed by strong gains for coal miners.  Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX:TLX) led the ASX200 winners on Friday after ending the session up 12.67%, New Hope Corporation (ASX;NHC) rallied 7.7% to end the week, and Perseus Mining (ASX:PRU) lifted 5.85% on Friday. On the other end of the market, Home Consortium (ASX:HMC) fell 5.45% on Friday, Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) dropped 4.35% and Kelsian Group (ASX:KLS) fell 4.18%. The most traded stocks by Bell Direct clients on Friday were Woodside Energy (ASX:WDS), Grange Resources (ASX:GRR) and Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST). Over in the US, the ongoing swings between positive and negative investor sentiment shifted positive again on Friday after San Francisco Fed leader Mary Daly said at some point rate rises would moderate though it's not yet time to ‘step down' from large hikes, which fuelled a rally on Wall St. The Dow Jones Industrials index added 2%, the S&P500 also jumped 2% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 1.7%. Earnings reports continue being released in the US with Exxon Mobil shares hitting an intra-day record high on Friday ahead of the company's earnings report out this week, with some market analysts deeming the outlook for the company as attractive, ‘particularly for generalists needing energy exposure'. In Europe on Friday, the STOXX600 fell amid rising concerns that major central banks around the world would retain their aggressive stance on inflation with dismal earnings updates from a number of companies. European markets were also impacted by turbulence on the UK's political front in addition to European leaders continuing a debate on how to tackle the bloc's energy crisis after Germany gave the green light for discussions around a price cap. Germany's DAX closed Friday's session 0.3% lower, the French CAC lost 0.85% and in the UK the FTSE100 rose 0.37% extending the rally from Thursday on news of the resignation of new British PM Liz Truss.What to watch today:The SPI futures are anticipating the ASX to open 1.42% higher on the back of the US rally that ended last week higher.On the economic data front today, investors will be awaiting the release of China's Q3 GDP growth rate data out today with the market expecting an increase to 3.4% in Q3 from a rise of 0.4% in Q2.In commodities, brent crude oil is trading 1.22% higher at US$93.5 per barrel, gold is trading 1.81% higher at US$1657 per ounce, and iron ore is up 0.53% at US$94.50 per tonne.The Aussie dollar is trading slightly stronger this morning with 1 Aussie dollar buying 64 US cents, 56.41 British Pence, 94.17 Japanese Yen and 1 New Zealand dollar and 11 cents.Trading Ideas:Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Aeris Resources (ASX:AIS) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 29 days, which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $0.42 to the range of $0.52 - $0.54 according to standard principles of technical analysis.Trading Central has also identified a bearish signal on Healius (ASX:HLS) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 17 days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $3.19 to the range of $2.98 - $$3.02 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

San Francisco Fed economist Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau tells MNI the Fed is seeing an orderly slowdown in the labor market, with job openings peaking for a number of sectors and quits rates falling without layoffs taking off. We also discuss labor participation.

Obwohl der Ölpreis, der US-Dollar und die Renditen der Staatsanleihen gestern gestiegen sind, konnte die Wall Street nahezu sämtliche Verluste wettmachen. Wir sehen aus dem Hause der Notenbank eine leicht entschärfte Rhetorik (Atlanta und San Francisco FED). Mit den US-Arbeitsmarktdaten am Freitag (um 8:30 Uhr in New York / 14:30 MEZ), dürfte heute Zurückhaltung dominieren. Einhergehend mit einer weicheren Rhetorik der FED, dürften Zeichen einer Abkühlung die Renditen bei Anleihen reduzieren, und die Wall Street anfachen. Meine Meinung: Die positive Reaktion auf schwächere Daten dürfte größer ausfallen als die negative Reaktion auf anhaltend robuste Daten. Abonniere den Podcast, um keine Folge zu verpassen! ____ Folge uns, um auf dem Laufenden zu bleiben: • Facebook: http://fal.cn/SQfacebook • Twitter: http://fal.cn/SQtwitter • LinkedIn: http://fal.cn/SQlinkedin • Instagram: http://fal.cn/SQInstagram

The San Francisco Fed reveals why US consumer prices accelerated more than other nations (i.e. stimulus checks). Also, the SF Fed explains why and when prices accelerated during 2020-22 (i.e. demand collapse and surge; supply shocks). At no point was it the Fed 'money printer go brr'.****DISCLOSURES****Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.****EP. 281 REFERENCES****Why Is U.S. Inflation Higher than in Other Countries?: https://bit.ly/3CJZgt3How Much Do Supply and Demand Drive Inflation?: https://bit.ly/3Riu9IZRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7Epoch Times Columns: https://bit.ly/39ESkRf****THE EPISODES****YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLVurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodvine: https://bit.ly/3lt5NiHPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39XjrPodcastRepublic: https://bit.ly/3LH8JlV****THE TEAM****Jeff Snider, Emperor Eurodollar. Emil Kalinowski, Ceremony Master. David Parkins, Illustrator Deus. Audio and video editor, Terence. Episode intro/outro music is "First Horizon" by ELFL.****FIND THE TEAM****Jeff: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPJeff: https://www.eurodollar.university/Emil: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiEmil: https://www.EuroDollarEnterprises.comDavid: https://DavidParkins.com/Terence: https://www.VisualFocusMedia.comELFL: https://www.epidemicsound.com/artists/elfl/"First Horizon": https://www.epidemicsound.com/track/YlWjWGbuEU/****DISCLOSURES****Emil Kalinowski is acting as three-ring circus ring master; he can neither confirm nor deny the presence of nuclear weapons on this show. Mister Kalinowski is neither employed by AFA nor does he receive any compensation from AFA -- not even the expensive gift basket that comes with those fancy nuts. El señor Kalinowski does not offer investment advice. Nevertheless should you torture a statement by him into taking on the form of advice, or perhaps the shape of a suggestion -- let's even say a contortion resembling a hint -- AND then act on le monsieur Kalinowski's 'recommendations'?  Well, YOU WILL LOSE MONEY! Even if you do the opposite of o senhor Kalinowski's 'advice' you will ALSO lose money -- it is some kind of a paradox (both the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Securities and Exchange Commission are investigating). The Kalinowski's only guidance is that you do not listen to him for any purpose other than deep, rapid eye movement sleep.

3:05pm: Say What? NY Times: G.O.P. Governors Cause Havoc by Busing Migrants to East Coast 3:20pm: NYC Mayor Adams asks for photos of city job applicants in effort to increase diversity: report 3:35pm: Guest: Peter Doocy, Fox News Channel's White House Correspondent 3:50pm: Jobs numbers 4:05pm: Guest: Fox News Medical Correspondent Dr. Marc Siegel  4:20pm: DeSantis did what Hochul won't — boot a DA who won't do their job 4:35pm: ESPN Senior MLB Insider Jeff Passan 4:50pm: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) told NBC News Tuesday night she'll vote against a new bipartisan bill on federal abortion protections introduced in response to the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade. 5:05pm: Guest: Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) 5:20pm: San Francisco Fed president, who reportedly earns over $420,000 annually: 'I don't feel the pain of inflation anymore. I see prices rising, but I have enough.' 5:35pm: (Replay Peter D)  5:50pm: Kicker Topic: Times Square Follow up: How Guy Benson ruined it all!  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

For this episode, we talk with Skanda Amarnath, executive director of Employ America. We discuss some of the myths about inflation in the 1970s, the forgotten inflation of early 1950s, how monetary policy really works, and Paul Volcker's stolen valor.Follow Skanda on twitter @IrvingSwisher and Employ America @employamericaRead more about Skanda and EA's work here: https://www.employamerica.org/For more on what we talk about in the show specifically, see:https://www.employamerica.org/researchreports/how-the-fed-affects-inflation/https://www.employamerica.org/researchreports/expecting-inflation-the-case-of-the-1950s/https://www.employamerica.org/researchreports/beyond-the-phillips-curve-a-dynamic-approach-to-communicating-assessments-of-maximum-employment/*** OTHER LINKS ***Jeremy Rudd (2021) - "Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-062. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2021062pap.pdfCambridge Capital Controvercy - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cambridge_capital_controversyJay Powell - "Monetary Policy in a Changing Economy" - https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20180824a.htmIsabella Weber - "Could strategic price controls help fight inflation?" - https://www.theguardian.com/business/commentisfree/2021/dec/29/inflation-price-controls-time-we-use-itGreat Grain Robbery - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_United_States%E2%80%93Soviet_Union_wheat_dealMedicare and inflation:Employ America - https://www.employamerica.org/researchreports/inflation-and-healthcare/San Francisco Fed - https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2016/may/medicare-payment-cuts-affect-core-inflation/Chicago Fed - https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2018/407

U.S. inflation is at its highest in four decades. The central banker explains to Swaha Pattanaik how the Federal Reserve plans to tackle price pressures without jeopardising growth or job creation, and outlines her views on the outlook for monetary policy. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Mary C. Daly is the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. She returns to The Commonwealth Club for a much-anticipated discussion on how to approach monetary policy amidst the uncertainty of an economy still struggling to overcome the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since taking office in October 2018, Dr. Daly has committed to making the San Francisco Fed a more community-engaged bank that is transparent and responsive to the people it serves. She works to connect economic principles to real-world concerns and concentrates on monetary policy, labor economics, and increasing diversity within the economics field. Dr. Daly began her career with the San Francisco Fed in 1996 as an economist specializing in labor market dynamics and economic inequality. She went on to become the bank's executive vice president and director of research. She currently serves on advisory boards for the Center for First-generation Student Success and the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University. She has also served on the advisory boards of the Congressional Budget Office, the Social Security Administration, the Office of Rehabilitation Research and Training, the Institute of Medicine, and the Library of Congress. Dr. Daly earned a bachelor's degree from the University of Missouri-Kansas City, a master's degree from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and a Ph.D. from Syracuse University. She also completed a National Institute of Aging post-doctoral fellowship at Northwestern University. A native of Ballwin, Missouri, Dr. Daly now lives in Oakland, California, with her wife Shelly. SPEAKERS Mary C. Daly President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Lenny Mendonca Former Chief Economic and Business Advisor, Director of the Office of Business and Economic Development, State of California; Member, Commonwealth Club Board of Governors In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, we are currently hosting all of our live programming via YouTube live stream. This program was recorded via video conference on November 16th, 2021 by the Commonwealth Club of California. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mary C. Daly is the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. She returns to The Commonwealth Club for a much-anticipated discussion on how to approach monetary policy amidst the uncertainty of an economy still struggling to overcome the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since taking office in October 2018, Dr. Daly has committed to making the San Francisco Fed a more community-engaged bank that is transparent and responsive to the people it serves. She works to connect economic principles to real-world concerns and concentrates on monetary policy, labor economics, and increasing diversity within the economics field. Dr. Daly began her career with the San Francisco Fed in 1996 as an economist specializing in labor market dynamics and economic inequality. She went on to become the bank's executive vice president and director of research. She currently serves on advisory boards for the Center for First-generation Student Success and the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University. She has also served on the advisory boards of the Congressional Budget Office, the Social Security Administration, the Office of Rehabilitation Research and Training, the Institute of Medicine, and the Library of Congress. Dr. Daly earned a bachelor's degree from the University of Missouri-Kansas City, a master's degree from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and a Ph.D. from Syracuse University. She also completed a National Institute of Aging post-doctoral fellowship at Northwestern University. A native of Ballwin, Missouri, Dr. Daly now lives in Oakland, California, with her wife Shelly. SPEAKERS Mary C. Daly President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Lenny Mendonca Former Chief Economic and Business Advisor, Director of the Office of Business and Economic Development, State of California; Member, Commonwealth Club Board of Governors In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, we are currently hosting all of our live programming via YouTube live stream. This program was recorded via video conference on November 16th, 2021 by the Commonwealth Club of California. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This is Derek Miller Speaking on Business. Did you know that the Federal Reserve—our nation's central bank—has an office in Salt Lake City? Becky Potts, Vice President, Regional Executive at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco's Salt Lake City branch, gives us a better understanding of The Fed and its work today. BECKY POTTS Here at the San Francisco Fed's Salt Lake City branch, we build active relationships with area business and community leaders to gain a broad picture of the economic conditions in our region. This helps to ensure that what's happening at the local level is reflected in our national monetary policymaking process. We always strive to be a community engaged bank that learns from and reflects the communities we serve. We believe opportunity is not a luxury—it's a necessity that should be accessible to everyone. To that end, we are using our tools and responsibilities to help create an inclusive economy, in which all people can fully contribute their talents and skills—regardless of their race or any other demographic factor. This work is vital to our mission of promoting a healthy and stable economy. I look forward to sharing more at the upcoming Utah Business Diversity Summit. DEREK MILLER Becky will be representing the Federal Reserve at the Chamber's upcoming Business Diversity Summit which will be held at the Salt Palace Convention Center on November 4th. For more information, visit slchamber.com. I'm Derek Miller with the Salt Lake Chamber, Speaking on Business. Originally Aired: October 25, 2021

We're excited to share a special episode in partnership with our colleagues in the San Francisco Fed's Community Development group. Our teams recently collaborated on a special issue of the Community Development Innovation Review in partnership with the Aspen Institute's Financial Security program, which examined the potential ways financial technology can promote racial equity in the financial system. Today's episode is a corollary to our recently concluded Financial Inclusion & Beyond series where we explored what we can learn from efforts around the world to improve financial inclusion and wellbeing. The event included a fireside chat with San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Ida Rademacher, Executive Director of the Aspen Institute's Financial Security Program, and a panel discussion with several journal contributors moderated by Rocio Sanchez-Moyano, a senior researcher in the Community Development  group. Some take-aways from the live event include: The current financial system does not serve everyone equally. The inability to access and use financial services impedes people's full participation in the economy. Communities of color and low-income communities are disproportionately left out of the financial system. Fintech provides an opportunity to reach those excluded by the financial system. Fintech shows promise in furthering financial inclusion. Improvements in transaction processing, digital identity, and use of real-time and alternative data for risk assessment could offer significant improvements to individuals currently left out of the financial system. Fintech solutions designed based on a nuanced understanding of lived experiences of those they serve have greater impact. Many consumers come up with work-arounds or adaptations to work with existing services that do not meet their needs. Efforts to increase diversity in the fintech ecosystem (from founders to staff, venture capital, and regulators) and greater prioritization of learning from the experiences and challenges that users from low-income communities and communities of color face can enable the creation of higher impact fintech solutions. Related Content Community Development Innovation Review: Fintech, Racial Equity, and an Inclusive Financial System Aspen Institute Financial Security Program The views expressed are not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or of the Federal Reserve System.

In the final episode of Financial Inclusion & Beyond, your series hosts take a look back at key themes and takeaways from our conversations. Some of the key takeaways we review include: The events of the pandemic left us all humbler at the scope of the challenge we face here in the United States to deliver full financial access to all citizens and promote their financial health. Financial inclusion often conveys the notion of basic access, but true inclusion is about enabling individuals lives and letting them pursue their dreams. Experts from a diverse range of disciplines like impact investing, behavioral economics, and community development are focused on designing new financial products and services to meet the needs of low income populations historically treated as second class citizens in the financial system. Regulators need to grapple with how to promote positive change through their engagement with innovative firms. A narrow focus on simply negating bad outcomes has not been sufficient to create real financial inclusion and racial equity, and a shift in mindset is necessary. The San Francisco Fed's Framework for Change makes a persuasive case for the economic benefits of a more inclusive financial system. We are at a critical moment to reflect and take action, and both public and private stakeholders have a lot of work ahead of them to promote meaningful change. The views expressed are not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or of the Federal Reserve System.

Our anchors start off the morning on the battle between fintech and financials in light of bank earnings this week. The Production Board CEO David Friedberg joins to share his take on digital banking and the future of fintech. Then, CNBC's Steve Liesman is here to interview San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly on inflation, Fed policy and much more. Later, Washington Post Tech Reporter Will Oremus joins live outside the courtroom where Elon Musk is defending Tesla's 2016 acquisition of SolarCity. Also, CNBC's Julia Boorstin is here with the story on the Female Founders Fund closing its third fund at $57 million. We also have CNBC's Eamon Javers with details on the Biden Administration's newest cybersecurity team members. Then, Arctic Wolf CEO Brian NeSmith joins to further discuss cyber threats and his cybersecurity company's latest $150 million funding round.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news of a hint of stagflation risk.The big story overnight is that the June American inflation rate has jumped more than the big jump expected. It came in at 5.4% when a 4.9% rate was expected. That is the fastest jump since 2008. Core inflation (without food or fuel) came in at 4.5% in June when a 4% rate was expected. Every component except medical care, rent and at-home food was up sharply. A lot of the pressure is coming from supply shortages which are expected to persist. And those supply shortages will depress economic activity. So fast-rising prices and lower-than-expected activity sets them up for a stagflation risk.Markets have reacted cautiously. Equities are marking time, hesitating on rising bond yields. The US dollar is strengthening. Commodity prices are up in US dollars, so they will be rising even faster in local currencies.The San Francisco Fed boss still sees this inflation as temporary and economic activity rising, so that Fed tapering is very much still the plan.Earlier today there was a US$44 bln 30yr Treasury bond auction of which the Fed took US$6 bln. US$97 bln was bid, and the median winning yield was 1.31%. That is lower than the 1.44% yield at the prior event when bids exceeded US$101 bln. That slip is causing observers to judge today's auction a 'poor' one.The US Government's June budget deficit came in lower than expected at -US$174 bln for the month to reach -$2.6 tln for the previous twelve months. But these large deficits represent huge improvements from a year ago where the June 2020 deficit was a massive -US$864 bln in the month and the whole year recorded -US$3.1 tln in deficit. Better fiscal management seems to be paying off. Tax revenues rose a remarkable +35% in June.Both China's exports and their imports were up strongly in June 2021. Their exports grew at a much faster than expected pace in June on solid global demand. Imports growth also beat expectations, though the pace eased from May, with the values boosted by high commodity prices. From June 2019, exports are up +32% and imports are up +42%. They booked a +US$32.6 trade surplus with the US in June, and a -US$9.2 bln deficit with Australia. With New Zealand their records show a -US$772 mln deficit for them. These results come despite well publicised shipping and container availability issues. But despite this, China's export growth momentum is expected to continue for the rest of 2021.In Europe, consumer inflation is being reported at more modest levels. In Germany, the June level was 2.3% and in France it was only 1.5%. The energy bite doesn't seem as fierce there, and food price changes hardly exist.In Australia, June business confidence levels have taken a hit as their pandemic spread gathered pace in NSW and Queensland. But it was a pall that affected the whole country and not just those two states. Despite this fall, they are still at strong levels but the hit to growth is expected to build.As a consequence, Canberra has reinstated its broad Jobkeeper subsidy support for firms affected in NSW on a 50/50 basis with the state government.There were 89 locally acquired cases in NSW yesterday and another death.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 1.41% and up +5 bps. The price of gold is now just over US$1805/oz which is down -US$3/oz from this time yesterday. There are indications of selling pressure in India as the pandemic hurts family finances.Oil prices have risen +US$2/bbl today and in the US they are now just over US$74.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just under US$76/bbl.The Kiwi dollar opens today just under 69.5 USc and softer than where we left it on yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are unchanged at 93.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 58.9 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today down slightly at 72.4.The bitcoin price is now at US$32,755 and down another -1.0% from this time on yesterday. Since May 24, the bitcoin price has been held in a relatively tight band. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been low at +/- 1.6%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

In episode eight of Financial Inclusion & Beyond, we spoke with Tracy Basinger, the recently retired head of supervision here at the San Francisco Fed. Tracy has spent her career focused on the impact of financial services on everyday citizens. From leading consumer protection here at the San Francisco Fed  to overseeing a nationwide team considering policy solutions for small businesses suffering during the COVID-19 crisis, Tracy has thought long and hard about the role of  public policy, regulation, and technology in promoting a more inclusive financial system.  We get into examples of financial innovations that are promoting inclusion and the challenges for regulators and policymakers who want to minimize risks to consumers and the broader financial system while not getting in the way of positive change. And we talk about how to shift from a historical mindset that focused on preventing exclusion to one that thinks about ways to promote inclusion and broader notions of financial health and wellbeing.  Key takeaways from the discussion include:  The challenges of 2020 made it abundantly clear that our financial system is not fair and forced financial regulators to re-consider rules and policies to ask how they promote or detract from efforts to build a more inclusive financial system. Historically regulators have been considered successful if they prevent bad things from happening. Shifting to an approach to not only protect consumers, but help them meaningfully participate in the financial system, requires a different mindset. Regulating modern financial technology is not simple. The rapid adoption and scaling of new innovations increase their potential both to create benefit and cause harm. To the extent technology is clearly providing a benefit, even an only incremental one, without causing obvious harm, regulators should be enabling it. Providing clarity around rules and regulations to firms is crucial to enable innovation that drives inclusion and financial health. Regulators and supervisors should be engaged from the very beginning to understand the role of new technology, provide guidance when necessary, and avoid reacting after the fact once a problem has surfaced. Related Content Virtual Fireside Chat with Tracy Basinger and Kavita Jain The views expressed are not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or of the Federal Reserve System.

Welcome to Finance and Fury. Firstly, sorry for the delay in episode, been over a week now – daughter was born last week, so been pretty busy helping care for her and trying to find a time to record in between work – should be back to normal from next week Interesting episode today – as one central bank in particular has now been tasked with the problem of housing affordability – This is the New Zealand central bank (RBNZ) – Can Central banks make property more affordable? If you are familiar with CBs – you would be familiar with the mandates that they get from the government – it is generally to keep annual inflation between a target range (1 and 3% for the RBNZ) and to also support maximum sustainable employment – trying to help job growth But in February 2021 - the NZ government formally added a clause to the RBNZ’s mandate, instructing it to consider housing prices in making monetary policy decisions The change has drawn attention – firstly, what this actually means from a policy decision point of view? Interesting – as it has the potential for governments to extend further into CB policy but also – goes in a contrary manner to the prime mandate of CBs - NZ has a history in being a canary down a coal mine - In 1989 it was the first to commit to a specific target for consumer price inflation – inflation target - target helped to lower self-fulfilling expectation of endless price rises that was occurring across most western economies in the late 70s and into the 80s From 1989 to 1991 - inflation fell from 8% to 2% - Soon after, most central banks had adopted targets Why extend the mandate to consider housing prices? The western world we have been experiencing inflation for years since the targets were brought out – not talking about CPI Today the runaway inflation rates are essentially asset price inflation consumer prices have been held in check by globalisation and automation – if anything deflationary fears have existed in regards to this – which is why interest rates have been reduced and, in the process, created easy money – but this easy money has been driving up the price of assets such as shares, bonds and housing Like many western nations - Home prices have risen steadily in the pandemic, and in 12 months through to the end of January were up 20% The price of a typical Auckland home gone to $720,000 Inflation targets were brought out to reduce inflation below this level of price growth In NZ – The prime minister made campaign promises to provide affordable housing – so she has tasked the CB to consider the effects on housing as their policies have helped to push homes beyond reach for the lower to middle economic class – which includes younger first-time home buyers This isn’t only in New Zealand – in western nations, homes are considered “unaffordable” (more than three times median family income) in more than 90% of cities The $220tn global housing market is more than twice the size of the global stock market – but the housing market has much additional debt – so the risks of falling prices are compounded by failed mortgages and defaults – making economic downturns worse I do find that there is some bit of irony of this policy - New Zealand’s was the first CB with the inflation target – hence, interest rates became a tool to be moved to combat inflation – higher rates for higher inflation, lower rates for lower inflation – this monetary tool initially got inflation in line but over recent years, the inflation rate is below the target rage in many countries (in has been for 4 years in Aus, but not in NZ at the moment) – to help this and to try and stimulate the economy – rates keep getting lowered We are in an era of ultra-low interest rates which may be the inevitable destiny of monetary policy – but whilst CPI was declining, asset price inflation has been on the rise at massive compounding rates over the past few decades as an order of consequences from this - inflates the value of the assets beyond what they might “reasonably” be worth if interstress rates were a flat 5%. Governments worldwide have come to embrace easy money as a way to finance social programs and deficit spending, needing QE to make sure bond yields don’t go through the roof – but this has created a negative effect on financial stability and housing affordability.   Now the big question - Can central banks really make houses cheaper? Technically – yes – all it needs to do is increase interest rates massively to the point it puts a downwards pressure on property – but this would have some major downsides that are too great to justify this type of policy This becomes clear when considering the extent of monetary policy tightening that would be required to reliably control asset prices - Research from the San Francisco Fed found that it would have taken 8% of monetary tightening between 2002 and 2006 to completely avoid the housing bubble that preceded the 2007-2009 global financial crisis - For context, the federal funds rate has not been at this level since October 1990 – now that rates are near 0% in most countries, this would require a massive increase This move by the NZ governments move may not slow the housing boom soon – mainly due to the supply-and-demand dynamics being too strong Demand – low interest rates and lots of people wanting to live in major cities like Auckland Supply – Have a pretty urbanised country – technically not as urbanised as Australia The RBNZ has said that “they will have to take into account the Government’s objective to support more sustainable house prices, including by dampening investor demand for existing housing stock to help improve affordability for first-home buyers.” Monetary policy is unlikely to be the critical tool to ease New Zealand’s home prices – it could be, but it likely won’t be without abandoning their long running mandate of having an inflation rate of 1-3% and having full employment If rates are made tighter (in other words increased) the housing market could be dropped in price - but the entire economy could suffer. If growth slows and unemployment rises, it’s likely the price of homes will go down, but is that really what New Zealand policymakers want? Also – consider the term ‘affordable’ for a second – homes are considered affordable based against the metric of a household’s income – if an economic slump occurs and employment drops, reducing the median household income by 30%, but in the process, you see a 30% decline in housing prices, is this really a more affordable situation?   This brings up another important question – should central banks consider the impact of their policies on hard assets, like property? In making monetary policy, central banks generally focus on the prices of goods and services – which is CPI - but there are occasional calls for them to pay more attention to prices of assets, such as houses or the stock market This debate is not new – in the early 2000s it was actually a topic of global discussion by the Centre for Economic policy research – done by the Geneva Report on the World Economy called Asset Prices and Central Bank Policy This looked at the use of interest rates as a tool to pop asset bubbles However – this was shouted down - in 2002, future Fed Chair Ben Bernanke argued that it was crucial to use the right tool for the job when making policy. “As a general rule, the Fed will do best by focusing its monetary policy instruments on achieving its macro goal – price stability and maximum sustainable employment – while using its regulatory, supervisory, and lender-of-last resort powers to help ensure financial stability.” In the same 2002 speech, Bernanke directly addressed the idea that the Fed should meddle directly with asset prices: “I think for the Fed to be an ‘arbiter of security speculation or values’ is neither desirable nor feasible.” Sounds funny today – but this is going back almost 20 years ago – before the days of QE or SPVs that buy corporate debt or ETFs in shares But the very nature of a CBs mandated goals of full employment and price stability come with the flow on effects on housing, shares and the bond markets – you cannot expect to move interest rates without having an affect on these assets – so through not considering this factor has led to runaway prices However – now that the mandate given to the RBNZ from the Finance Minister appears to have a different priority - Rather than describing house prices as a potential threat to financial stability, the government mandate asks the RBNZ to consider the impacts of its policy decisions on housing affordability The RBNZ central bank officals came out against this – they are sceptical about the use of interest rates and instead prefer a macroprudential toolkit as opposed to trying to reduce housing prices for first-time buyers – as they believe this goal is better met by increasing the supply of houses and targeted fiscal policy Similar in the US - Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell also thinks that using interest rates to deal with asset price bubbles is dangerous - prefers to turn to macroprudential tools for that purpose – in plain English, this means financial regulation from the governments end that aims to mitigate risk to the financial system – so it may mean that additional controls on lending are needed, or changes to deductibility on property – but this is unpopular for governments In a January 2021 Powell said, “We don’t actually understand the tradeoff between if you raise interest rates and thereby tighten financial conditions and reduce economic activity now in order to address asset bubbles and things like that—will that even help? Will it actually cause more damage, or will it help? So I think that’s unresolved. And I think it’s something we look at as not theoretically ruled out, but not something we’ve ever done and not something we would plan to do.” It seems like the government and CBs are trying to pass the buck to one another RBNZ – “We will be considering our financial stability policy settings via our prudential tools – like loan-to-value ratios, bank stress testing, and capital requirements – against particular types of mortgage lending. This is done with a view to moderating housing demand, particularly from investors, to best ensure house price sustainability.” But this is a recommendation that they can make to the Government to then implement -   Looking at some of these other government-controlled factors outside the central bank’s In many developed economies, house prices are as affected by land-use regulations that limit the size and style of homes that can be built, which create artificial housing scarcity that in turn drives up prices - A 2017 New Zealand government study found that rules around building could account for 15% to 56% of a home’s cost depending on the area Also – things like taxes, with stamp duties are increasing the costs of housing – will cover this in another episode soon, as NSW is looking to replace stamp duty with an ongoing tax Directing central bankers to pay attention to the economic metrics of everyday life is always a good idea. But the problem of housing affordability is too complex to solve by tweaking interest rates alone In summary – this policy from the Government of tasking CB to deal with it is smart – smart from a political stand point – when you campaign on affordable housing and the markets go up – then you need a scape goat Technically - NZ Government has selected the correct scape goat – but are still passing the buck I personally don’t think it will amount to much – the CBs power would be to increase rates, and crash the housing market – which may make homes unaffordable if the median wage gets hit in the process I mean, to lower property prices is simple – increase interest rates to 10% - people will default, be forced out of their homes and there will be a massive oversupply of property, pushing prices down – is that good for anyone? If you don’t own property, it may not be – as with this style of collapse also comes a wider spread economic collapse – if you are starting in your career, job opportunities may not exist, which could delay your home ownership journey further So the NZ CBs have said that they will monitor the situation but in effect, have passed the buck back to the government and fiscal policy It may hopefully bring more awareness to the issues that CBs play on our everyday lives – but as far as having an effect, it is a catch 22 – either way, it is an interesting development that may also spread to other CBS Thank you for listening to today's episode. If you want to get in contact you can do so here: http://financeandfury.com.au/contact/

We’re excited to launch our latest season, Financial Inclusion & Beyond, an exploration of what we can learn from efforts around the world to improve financial inclusion, health, and wellbeing. This is a topic we’ve explored in previous episodes on fintech, and we're eager to ground global insights in the context of our modern challenges amid the COVID 19 crisis and renewed efforts to promote racial equity in the US financial system. We begin the series with a conversation with our very own San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly. We get into why the Fed cares about financial health and inclusion, how we're engaging and learning from a community of subject matter experts and the general public, and the significant work ahead of us. Key takeaways from the discussion include: True economic and financial inclusion means everyone has access to the tools that make their lives easier—the ability to meet their daily needs and accumulate wealth for themselves and their families. From the perspective of the broader economy, we all do better when everyone is included and participating. For policy makers, financial exclusion undermines the resiliency of the economy and hinders growth. The COVID-19 crisis has magnified the challenges for those citizens that are not fully included in the financial system. Regulators have historically relied on rules-based approaches to prevent exclusionary behavior, practices like discriminatory “red lining” in mortgage lending that prevented African Americans from buying homes in the 20th. Negating the negative is not enough, however, and regulators need to broaden their mindset to think about how to promote positive change that delivers racial equity in the financial system, drives inclusion, and enables economic life for everyone. Related Content Zipcode Economies 2020 Lessons, 2021 Priorities Is the Federal Reserve Contributing to Economic Inequality? The New Stone Soup The views expressed are not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or of the Federal Reserve System.

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco has published a report titled The Role of Individuals in the Data Ecosystem. The report is a comprehensive catalog of issues related to data rights and data protection for individuals. Notably, it concludes that "most of this regulation is limited to specific sectors or geographies and creates a complexity that is precarious for individuals and burdensome for businesses and government oversight. There is clear value in creating a foundation of data protection that extends across all entities and individuals in the U.S. and borrows from the possible lessons that current laws have taught us."In this episode, Jody Westby and Jerry Buckley interview the report’s author, Kaitlin Asrow. The report offers a potential national legal framework for data governance, but also suggests the need for a significant rethinking of the ways in which we approach the legal structure for individual data protection. The report and our discussion with Kaitlin are a must hear for anyone seriously interested in understanding the way forward in privacy and data protection policy.

What makes a neighbor? In this episode of Zip Code Economies, we head to Salt Lake City, where we grapple with matters of values, faith, and inclusion— while confronting some of our own biases. In the search for clarity, we talk to an array of residents, from a demographic researcher at the University of Utah to a Brigham Young University student interning at the San Francisco Fed. Can we take a leap of faith? Find out.  Interviewees: Will Unga Brandon Payne Pam Perlich Josh and Elizabeth England Organizations: Salt Lake City Community College The University of Utah England Logistics, Inc.

The dollar was broadly weaker today with the dollar index closing down .85 to 94.78 At that time gold was up about $18; sliver up about .25 Then all of a sudden New York Fed Chairman William Dudley in an interview on Fox Business basically said that a September rate hike was still possible Look, a September alien invasion is still possible, but I'm not going to waste my time preparing for it What's amazing to me is how all of the villagers still come running every time a Fed official cries "Wolf!" Haven't they noticed that they've cried, "Wolf!" over and over again and there's never a wolf? I think that Dudley purposely came out and mentioned a September rate increase just to keep the markets in check; to preserve the false narrative that there is actually a recovery, instead of a bubble All of a sudden, gold sold off, it went from +$18 to +$2 or $3 Silver went negative; it lost its entire rally in a matter of minutes I think Dudley was trying to undo the damage done overnight by Dudley's counterpart at the San Francisco Fed, John Williams' well-thought out paper Williams wrote in his piece that he believes we're in a "new era".  He doesn't understand that the new era that we're in is collateral damage from central bank monetary policy They think this is a random occurrence that needs a new government prescription John Williams is proposing, based on this "new normal" the neutral interest rate is so low, it's almost impossible for the central banks to get there, absent negative interest rates What Williams is proposing, is more inflation What he is arguing is that we should scrap this 2% inflation target and that we need a higher number  I've been saying for years that this is going to happen It's just like the unemployment rate, where they said, "We'll raise interest rates if it gets below 6.5% and then we let it go below 5% We kept moving that goal post I said the same thing was going to happen to inflation In fact it is happening.  If you look at the CPI numbers that just came out today, we continue to be above the 2% level on the core; we've been there for many months in a row Now they're already starting to say, "Hey wait a minute, 2% isn't high enough We need more inflation because we need lower rates, and the only way to get there is to have higher inflation This is what I have been expecting If you read William's piece, he says one of the ways we should get there is for the Fed to target nominal GDP In other words, not GDP after you adjust for inflation I've argued that the deflator is under the actual inflation number, therefore overestimating GDP growth The Fed is saying, "Who cares about the GDP deflator? All we care about is the nominal number We don't care if the growth is real or inflationary, we just want nominal GDP numbers to go up" What good is that? No one benefits from phony GDP growth that is simply a by-product of inflation The whole point is that we want the economy to actually, grow, not for just prices to go up But what the Williams is saying is no, all we care about is prices going up It's all about style over substance That's why we're stuck in this malaise Additionally, what Williams was also arguing for was more fiscal stimulus He was saying that we're at the end of our rope with interest rates at practically at zero We need the government to provide more stimulus in the form of deficit spending We've already got about a $20 trillion national debt If deficit spending were stimulative, why haven't we gotten a huge stimulus from that $20 trillion of debt? That $20 trillion is an anchor weighing down the economy and Williams is calling for another anchor The more the Fed stimulates the economy, the more the economy is sedated Eventually the economy is a corpse and they keep trying to stimulate it anyway; they don't even realize that they've killed the patient

For several years not I've been warning about the risk to our bond and banking system. The measures put into place after the last economic panic were wholly inadequate. In fact, they did nothing to correct the major issues that lead to the near collapse of our entire economic system. Here we are, eight years later, interest rates are still at near zero with many countries dipping into negative territory. While politicians and sellout economists extol the virtues of a mythical recovery some very important people are sounding warning bells. The signs are always in plain sight for all to see. It's easy to figure out where the risk is if you know where to look. Now both the head of the San Francisco Fed and the head of the FDIC are both sounding the alarm about the next economic panic. Today we'll talk about both of them along with some discussion of Obamacare. I reference two Papers in the show today. Here they are: The Babylon Report http://www.jasonstapleton.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/babylon-report.pdf The Coming Divide http://www.jasonstapleton.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/TheComingDivide.pdf JasonSupport the show.

(Bloomberg) -- Taking Stock with Kathleen Hays and Pimm Fox. GUEST: John Fernald, Senior Research Advisor at the San Francisco Fed, discusses productivity and the economy.

In our conversation with Teuila Hanson, SVP of HR, Diversity and Inclusion at the San Francisco Fed, she talks about what’s at stake in conversations about diversity and why we need to be honest about our own biases.

1. Soured trade relations between China and Japan: bad news. 2. Anti-American sentiment spreads to Pakistan, Afghanistan. 3. Apple shares to $700. 4. San Francisco Fed shoot itself in foot, Facebook poll. 5. Low print: 2009. Typical. 6. Irrational markets: rates can't rate. 7. Farage docked for insult. 8. Middle east crowded with American troops. 9. Spain, you're a joke. www.thefinancialreality.com

Join us for the Academy’s monthly radio show, “New Business Paradigms:  Conscious Commentary on Business and Society,” featuring World Business Academy President Rinaldo Brutoco in conversations with Wealth Advisor Howard Smith and members of the Academy community who call into the show. Next live show:  February 9, 2011 at 11:00 a.m. PT / 2:00 p.m. ET Reflections from the San Francisco Fed and what we need to do to protect ourselvesEurope:  the big question mark To call into the live show with questions or comments, dial (347) 989-8946.   You can also join the live call using your computer.  Subscribe to the show on iTunes. 

Home equity line-of-credit loans may look like "found money", but tax law changes and rising interest rates reduce their appeal. Today's Stocks & Topics: HYI - Western Asset High Yield Defined Opportunity Fund Inc., Keep Buying the Dips, Global Economy, San Francisco Fed, IBM - International Business Machines Corp., 5G Industry, ETFC - E*TRADE Financial Corp., Safe Investment, AAPL - Apple Inc., California Income Funds.Support this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/investtalk-investment-in-stock-market-financial-planning/donations