A podcast about Silicon Valley, hosted by newsletter writer Eric Newcomer and Tom Dotan, with Katie Benner as a regular special guest.
In this second installment of the Cerebral Valley podcast series, co-hosts James Wilsterman and Max Child of Volley join Eric Newcomer for a thought-provoking conversation about the future of AI-generated voice and video — and what it means for our sense of reality.From TikTok trends to the future of Hollywood and podcasting, the trio explores where generative video might take us over the next five years. Will AI content dominate our feeds? Will we even be able to tell the difference?To put these predictions to the test, the hosts play The AI Video Turing Test — a game where they watch viral AI-generated videos from 2018 to today, ending with the latest clips made with Veo 3. Can they spot what's real and what's fake? And what makes some fakes feel too real?This episode dives deep into the shifting boundaries between synthetic and human-made content — and makes one thing clear: we're no longer at the bottom of the uncanny valley. AI is climbing fast.The 2025 Cerebral Valley AI Summit will be held in London on June 25thTimestamps:02:50 — Predictions: AI in 5 years15:00 — Hollywood perceptions of AI18:55 — AI generated video games23:05 — AI Video Turing Test
The Cerebral Valley AI Summit is right around the corner! To help you navigate the fast-evolving AI landscape ahead of the event, Newcomer Podcast is launching a special four-part series — co-hosted by James Wilsterman and Max Child of Volley. Get insider insights, expert analysis, and fresh perspectives on the trends shaping the future of artificial intelligence.In this first episode, James, Max, and host Eric Newcomer dive into what it really means to be an AI agent — and explore how agentic AI could reshape the future of work and everyday life. From picking wedding outfits to writing code, they share personal experiences of agents in action and reflect on where this technology is headed next.So — where is AI headed? In the second half of the episode, the trio revisits market predictions made by AI last November and puts them to the test using fresh data pulled by Deep Research. After a spirited round of forecasting, they return to their 2024 AI Fantasy Drafts to see whose lineup is raising, exiting, and, ultimately, leading in the race for AI dominance.Our next episode focuses on AI's impact in voice and video, and may include a few more surprise games... The 2025 Cerebral Valley AI Summit will be held in London on June 25thTimestamps:00:39 - Intro & the scaling wall reversal06:13 — How we use Claude and Deep Research08:45 — Agents are here for the web search14:44 — Coding agents as the breakout tool24:24 — Update on last year's AI predictions36:51 — AI Fantasy Draft
We're welcoming Bloomberg's Kate Clark to the show this week and diving into her reporting on the rough fundraising environment for any VC that isn't an a16z or GC-style megafund. The only emerging funds that can raise, it seems, are ones that are started by investors who leave these brands. If it weren't for the AI funding bonanza, the situation would look even worse.We each make our predictions for how rosy or dreary the venture market will be 2 years from now. And, of course, take a moment to comment on Elon's DOGE departure.Timestamps:00:00 Intro and welcome to Kate Clark00:57 Emerging managers struggle to raise14:34 The X factor, sovereign wealth22:07 Venture market predictions32:51 Elon Musk out in Washington
In this special episode, we feature two interviews recorded live during Newcomer's Breaking the Bank Summit, a financial technology summit held this week in San Francisco.We're including two of the most dynamic discussions here, beginning with Gabriel Stengel of Rogo and Jeff Seibert of Digits, followed by an interview with Josh Reeves, CEO of Gusto.The episode kicks off with a breakdown of the event, highlighting the key debates that emerged between Rogo and Digits around the trustworthiness of LLMs in fintech, as well as Reeves' perspective on the service intensive business and going shoeless in the office. After getting our hosts' reactions, we dive in to live-recorded audio from the event.For a full selection of discussions from the summit, including video of each talk, visit the Newcomer Youtube at youtube.com/@newcomerpodTimecodes00:00 - Intro09:43 - Rogo + Digits Discussion28:13 - Josh Reeves, Gusto Interview
Eric relays his dispatch from Dimension Capital's biotech summit in Park City, where the crowd was much more academic than the conferences we usually attend. Biotech stocks aren't doing great, meanwhile university funding cuts could spell trouble for drug research. Still, people were rosy about AI tools. We also took a temperature check on the state of fintech, which investors tell us is mixed. Everyone's hopeful about IPOs and streamlined stablecoins, but the dollar getting destabilized by the tariffs has some investors skittish. Later in the episode, Madeline explains how Trump's crackdown on immigration is spooking startup founders and employees. Timestamps: 00:42 Lineup of our upcoming fintech summit02:02 Eric's dispatch from Dimension Capital and Recursion's biotech summit09:22 Fintech IPOs and stablecoins en vogue18:50 Heightened immigration enforcement spooks startup employees
How does the AI gold rush look from the helm of a $40-billion software giant? Salesforce co-founder, chair, and CEO Marc Benioff joins Eric Newcomer and Tom Dotan for a tour of the next tech boom cycle. The conversation opens with Benioff's sweeping vision of “Agent Force 2.0,” where large language models paired with reasoning engines mint whole new classes of digital labor, and brands from Gucci to Disney are already swapping call-center scripts for autonomous agents.The episode closes on politics and philanthropy: Prop C, homelessness, the 2024 electoral tightrope, and how Benioff plans to work with any administration and still sleep at night.
This week, we kick off by discussing Ben Smith's bombshell post ”The group chats that changed America,” that exposed the private chats that nudged Silicon Valley's money crowd into Trump's orbit. Then we hop to DC's Hill-and-Valley Forum, where the mantra was industrial renaissance or bust. The race with China, AI's essential energy demands, and the need to reshore American manufacturing were the talk of the forum. Fear of China loomed over the entire forum and only whispers of tariffs crossed the lips of attendees and speakers alike. In the back half, Eric and Madeline are joined by Lux Capital's Josh Wolfe, fresh off his on-stage appearance at the Hill and Valley Forum. Wolfe predicts two flashpoints the commentariat is ignoring: a terror-fertile Sahel and a China-courting Latin America. He spars with Eric Newcomer and Madeline Renbargner over Trump's tariffs, friend-shoring versus reshoring, and whether founder-led startups like Anduril can out-maneuver bloated primes. If you think that the only great power game is Taiwan, Wolfe widens the aperture to central Africa and the Americas. Timecodes00:00 - Intro01:10 - Silicon Valley's Most Important Group Chats 08:18 - Hill and Valley's “America First” Victory Lap 16:20 - Josh Wolfe on America's Next War
We're back to opining on the state of tech media! A16z has aqui-hired Erik Torenberg and his newsletter Turpentine, while the Technology Brothers with ties to Founders Fund have created a podcasting empire. Eric and Tom reminisce about the original wave of “going direct,” why it failed, and what's different this time around. Later on, Madeline shares that crypto VCs are growing frustrated with President Trump's meme coin grifts, and how hosting a private dinner for top coin holders doesn't help legitimize the industry.
This week, Tom breaks down his scoops on how the big foundation model providers are doing.and much to the chagrin of our resident skeptic, they're earning lots of real revenue! OpenAI is on track to crack over $12 billion in revenue this year, and Anthropic projects it will double its ARR to $4 billion by the end of the year. But have we hit the AGI moment? Eric relays his o3 experiments as evidence. Madeline gets into the perpetual VC optimism in spite of market turmoil and why AI has early stage investors mostly unphased. In the second half of our show, Eric interviews Contrary's Kyle Harrison about his viral foundation model market map and why AI has led many VCs to embrace startup polyamory.
We're welcoming special guest Tom Dotan of Dead Cat fame to the show this week — just in time for the tariff market meltdown. To Silicon Valley's Trump supporters, we hate to say we told you so, but it's hard to imagine how these tariffs on our biggest trading partners will benefit tech and artificial intelligence development in the US.In the second half of the show, Eric interviews Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen on how to make sense of what President Trump's tariff policies mean for his customers around the world.
OpenAI has done it again. The AI giant closed $40 billion in fresh funding (kind of) led by Softbank, We debate the bull and bear case for OpenAI's $300 billion valuation. Eric sticks to his guns from his previous bear case, but Madeline is more optimistic about OpenAI's consumer revenue.We also go over the latest in the Deel/Rippling corporate espionage saga and dig into Eric's reporting on the Deel spy's confession. Plus, Elon Musk is reportedly stepping back from his hands on role in Washington in the coming weeks.In the second half of this week's episode, Eric interviews Clay CEO and cofounder Kareem Amin, who topped the Enterprise Tech 30 list on mid-stage startups.Time stamps00:00 — Announcing Cerebral Valley London03:26 — Is OpenAI worth $300 billion?11:00 — The Deel Spy Confession16:09 — Elon Pulls Back in DC22:40 — Clay's Kareem Amin Talks Marketing Agents
This week, Eric shared the details of his vibe coding frenzy from the past few weeks, testing out Vercel and the buzziest coding assistant of moment, Lovable. We unpack the benefits and remaining headaches of these tools from a non-coder perspective. We then turn to the Studio Ghibli memes of the week from OpenAI's new 4o image model integration and try to make sense of all the copyright risks and benefits this new tool could lead us to.Later in the show, we break down the story on 11x's potentially fabricated customers and subsequent backlash from some of Silicon Valley's most powerful VCs. And as Waymo fans, we're excited about their expansion in to Washington DC.Produced by Christopher Gates
We're opening in a celebratory mood this week with Wiz's big exit to Google, which if it holds will offer some much needed liquidity to venture firms and their LPs. It's a big win for several of Silicon Valley's heavy hitters, including Sequoia's Doug Leone, Index Ventures' Shardul Shah, and Greenoaks' Neil Mehta. IPOs are looking a little bit more uncertain, however. Plus, Deel's allleged corporate espionage at Rippling has all the makings of a great HR tech spy thriller. Next up, we touch on the new liberal "abundance" agenda, which has more than a few similarities to Marc Andreessen's "Time to Build" manifesto. In the second half of our show, Eric sits down with Browserbase CEO Paul Klein to discuss their tools for running headless browsers and their rapid growth over the past year.Produced by Christopher Gates
We're recording this episode on the ground from two different tech conferences, the flashy new HumanX summit in Las Vegas and the now-veteran status South By Southwest in Austin. We cover how the attendees diverge, with more consumer-tech making a showing at SXSW and the new guard of AI business leaders heading over to HumanX (with a few exceptions.) At both summits, though, coding assistants are far and beyond the breakout use case of generative AI applications.We also briefly touch on the threat to free speech in America under the Trump administration following the arrest of the Columbia student protestor Mahmoud Khalil. Next up, we talk about Anthropic's major revenue growth and how Claude itself is one of the strongest coding assistants on the market, notching it up in the model maker race. We close with, yes — another coding assistant — Anysphere, the makers of Cursor, and its rumored funding round at a $10 billion valuation.
In this episode of the Newcomer Podcast, Eric and Madeline dissect why VCs are mad about Trump's plans for a strategic crypto reserve. Even the biggest boosters and loudest voices for deregulation around crypto have been caught off guard by the president's push to add other altcoins to the promised Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, calling the move a blatant enrichment scheme for coin holders and friends of the President. Next, they take a closer look at the thawing of the IPO market. They unpack CoreWeave's S-1 and examine why the biggest generative AI IPO of the year so far has a lot at stake with big tech customers. They then discuss Anthropic's latest funding round, its whopping $61.5 billion valuation, and the deeper issue of when we should truly declare AGI's arrival.
Eric and Madeline break down the week that was in AI news in this episode of The Newcomer Podcast, from the unnecessary panic caused by reports of Microsoft cancelling leases for data centers to Nvidia's quarterly earnings report. Despite tech companies moving full steam ahead on AI, including OpenAI's launch of GPT 4.5 and Softbank's $200 billion commitment to data centers, tech stocks dropped, which our hosts blame on the natural slower tech adoption curve and overall market uncertainty from President Trump's chaotic policy changes.Later in the episode, Eric unpacks Jeff Bezos' increasing control over the Washington Post's opinion section and tech CEOs pre-empting so-called “hit pieces” on X. The two then shout out UK-based developer tool Lovable's $15 funding million extension and rapid growth. They close the episode with a call for readers to submit their burning questions and commentary for next week's Newcomer reader mailbag. You can submit your own question by filling out this Google form.
In this episode of the Newcomer Podcast, Eric and Madeline give a sendoff to the Humane and its AI Pin. The company was acquired by HP for its AI talent, in a darkly poetic ending for former Apple engineers who left to build a smart hardware startup. They debate the merits of voice AI technology as an interface and if it's really time to move away from screens. They break down all of OpenAI's alumni startups, starting with Mira Murati's newly announced Thinking Machine Labs. Other former founders of OpenAI like Ilya Suskever and Elon Musk are in talks to raise billions for their respective AI startups. They close with a breakdown of Saronic and Together AI's latest funding rounds.00:19 - Humane's Semi-Soft Landing to HP13:43 - Mira Murati Unveils Thinking Machines Lab and we have questions17:02 - The new SV flex - Small teams19:02 - Grok's big cluster and Elon jumps the shark24:14 - Saronic and Together AI Raise Big Series C Rounds
Eric and Madeline unpack the biggest “deal that wasn't” story of Elon Musk's unsolicited offer to purchase OpenAI for $97.4 billion. WIth Sam Altman flat-out rejecting the offer on X, this feels less like an offer and more of a statement about Musk's frustration with OpenAI's continued conversion to a for-profit company that competes with him. Pressures have been mounting on engineers to look for greener pastures, though, if Thrive Capital's Joshua Kushner's urging speech for talent to stay put is any indication. Then, they turn to Eric's reporting on Lightspeed Venture Partners' new fundraising documents, where the megafirm showed stronger returns on earlier funds ahead of its next big capital raise. They also unpack the AI Action Summit's 180-degree swing from an AI safety forum to a conference dominated by CEOs and accelerationist world leaders. They close with a breakdown with a who's who on the cap table of legal-tech Harvey's latest Series D, and Mercury's rumored new Sequoia-backed fundraise.Produced by Christopher GatesMusic by Suno
In this episode of the Newcomer podcast, Eric Newcomer and Madeline Renbarger dig into all of the chaos in Washington led by Elon Musk and his team of young staffers. They push back on the attacks from the right at the press that revealing information about public employees is anything close to "doxxing," and unpack a16z's virtue signaling by hiring new right-wing cause celebrity Daniel Penny to its investing team. Later on, Eric breaks down the General Catalyst's a pitch to investors shapeshifting into a "company." They close with even more meme discourse, this time over Marc Andreessen's reading of the "heatmap" social study.Chapters00:00 DOGE's Young Staffers03:28 Is Naming Government Staffers “Doxxing”06:20 Daniel Penny's Hiring at A16z is Virtue Signaling09:16 Debating Marc Andreessen on the Heatmap12:22 Meta's AR Bets Not In Line With Venture Capital21:03 Unpacking General Catalyst's Pitch to Investors
In this episode, Eric Newcomer and Madeline Renbarger break down DeepSeek's impact on western AI companies. Is it really the “AI Sputnik Moment” that investors have called it, or just a CCP bluff?They also delve into new AngelList data on venture returns — unsurprisingly, they're not looking good post-2021. They also discuss voice AI startup ElevenLabs' new funding round.
"In this episode of The Newcomer Podcast, Eric Newcomer and Madeline Renbarger unpack how tech elites are reacting to the early days of the Trump presidency. They discuss Sam Altman and Masayoshi Son's new venture to build AI data centers dubbed “Project Stargate” and make the case for business leaders to abide by important ethical norms. They also break down fresh performance data from UTIMCO, calling out Thrive Capital's standout returns and examining the broader struggles for many funds amid the post-2021 downturn. They close by discussing Brookfield's billion-dollar acquisition of Divvy Homes—once valued at over $2 billion—and unpack the implications for proptech employees left empty-handed."
In this jam-packed episode, Eric and Madeline break down Biden's surprise crackdown on the “Tech Industrial Complex,” explore Trump's tight ties with Silicon Valley oligarchs, and unpack the behind-the-scenes drama of a Canadian startup that ousted its visionary founder. They also spotlight a mega funding deal in AI-powered coding tools, rounding out a sweeping look at how politics, big tech, and startup intrigue collide in today's tech landscape.
Waymo's milestone — surpassing Lyft's ride numbers in San Francisco — takes center stage in our first podcast of the new year. Still, it's not obvious that this translates into guaranteed scale across the country. We consider the operational headaches that come with scaling driverless fleets. One way forward for Waymo could be further collaborations with legacy rideshare giants like Uber. We also break down Whatnot's latest round of funding and debate whether a potential TikTok ban could give the live shopping startup a competitive advantage. Give it a listen. Chapters:00:00 Introduction01:35 Waymo's Progress and Challenges10:21 Whatnot's big fundraiseEpisode produced by Christopher Gates Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
The ServiceTitan IPO has been an unexpected bright spot as 2024 comes to a close.On this year's final episode of the Newcomer Podcast, we discuss what other startups might follow in ServiceTitan's footsteps next year. Eric defends the controversial ratchet provision in its last funding round. And we dig into Alphabet's big week. We focus on startups on this show, but this week was a good reminder that the big tech firms like Alphabet and Meta can still turn out impressive moonshot technology from their research labs. We're bullish on a couple emerging venture capital firms — Laude Ventures and Dimension — who just closed big new funds. The megafunds may be sucking up the majority of LP dollars, but firms with a clear thesis and a standout team of high performers can still shine in this market. Give it a listen.Chapters:00:00 — Reflections ahead of the new year 05:02 — ServiceTitan's IPO and Market Sentiment10:00 — Alphabet's Wins and the AI landscape15:08 — The State of Quantum Computing19:58 — Emerging Venture Capital Trends and Final ThoughtsEpisode produced by Christopher Gates Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
After a brief hiatus, the Newcomer podcast is back! Madeline Renbarger has rejoined me as my co-host to help break down all of the news across venture capital and startups. This week, we're kicking off with a massive $693 million chip deal and Google's huge quantum computing breakthroughs, in news that feels like flashes of Silicon Valley returning to its “silicon” roots. Still, some of this tech feels a bit too early to be exciting for a venture-backable model. We also dig into the personnel shake-ups across the major multi-stage funds, including Brian Singerman's step back from Founders Fund last week. Lightspeed also saw partners exit as part of a consumer investing reshuffle. And just this morning after recording, Lux Capital's Bilal Zuberi announced on X that he was leaving to “embark on a new chapter.” We're excited for you to listen. Episode produced by Christopher GatesBrought to you by BrexBrex knows runway is everything for venture-backed startups, so they built a banking solution that helps them take every dollar further. Unlike traditional banking solutions, Brex has no minimums and gives startups access to 20x the standard FDIC protection via program banks.Plus, startups can earn industry-leading yield from their first dollar — while being able to access their funds anytime. If you want to make sure your portfolio companies have a place to save, spend, and grow their capital, check out Brex here.Chapters 00:00 - Intro 01:06 - Tenstorrent's $693 million Series D 04:44 - Google's Quantum Computing Breakthrough06:42 - Lightspeed's Consumer Investing Re-org09:24 - Brian Singerman Steps Back and Founders Fund's Roster14:08 - Mega-funds in Transition and Tech's Trump Positioning 20:19 - Conclusion and Future Discussions Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
I've been spending some of the afternoon chatting with OpenAI's now fully released o1. So far, I don't know that it feels like the super intelligent ChatGPT 5 that we've all fantasized about — but it's smart and sophisticated. The new model helped me to game out potential stories and talk through problems. And of course it wrote me a poem and told me a couple dad jokes.It looks like the biggest improvement in the news model may be in math and coding, where OpenAI is highlighting meaningful improvements over o1-preview.It will take some time to digest the new version of the model and see what it says about the pace of AI advancement. Before the latest update, Max Child, James Wilsterman, and I got behind our microphones to reflect on the Cerebral Valley AI Summit and give you some of our takeaways. (Max has already hooked up the advanced voice mode of ChatGPT to his iPhone action button. Good bye Siri, hello ChatGPT.)Give it a listen. Brought to you by BrexBrex knows runway is everything for venture-backed startups, so they built a banking solution that helps them take every dollar further. Unlike traditional banking solutions, Brex has no minimums and gives startups access to 20x the standard FDIC protection via program banks.Plus, startups can earn industry-leading yield from their first dollar — while being able to access their funds anytime. If you want to make sure your portfolio companies have a place to save, spend, and grow their capital, check out Brex here.00:00 — Cerebral Valley AI Summit Overview02:50 — Key Takeaways from Alexandr Wang's Talk05:46 — The Wall in AI Foundation Models08:57 — Dario Amodei's Perspective on AI Progress12:13 — Investing in AI: Insights from Martin Casado15:06 — The Future of AI Agents and Voice Technology17:56 — The Role of AI in Gaming and User Interaction20:46 — AI in Enterprise: Trends and Predictions24:03 — Challenges in Robotics and Home Automation26:58 — Marissa Mayer on Google's Future in AI29:51 — Final Thoughts and Future Outlook Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
If you get some downtime over the Thanksgiving holiday, catch up on everything that happened at the Cerebral Valley AI Summit last week. We've got videos of all of the talks on stage on our YouTube channel and are sharing my conversation with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei over our podcast feeds. Scale AI CEO Alexandr WangAndreessen Horowitz partner Martin CasadoLessons from This Year's $14B in Generative AI Enterprise Spending Databricks CEO Ali GhodsiBiology Applications of AITrain, Tune, or TurnkeyHow to Train Your RobotSpeak Easy: Voice Applications of AISunshine CEO Marissa MayerAnthropic CEO Dario AmodeiEmergent Behavior: Live Product Demos Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
Cerebral Valley is tomorrow! I've been listening to old interviews, brainstorming with Claude and ChatGPT, and talking to investors to prep for my conversations with Dario Amodei, Martin Casado, and Alexandr Wang. We'll be sharing those conversations here in the newsletter. Expect video highlights on our social media feeds, a detailed rundown of the biggest moments in the newsletter Thursday, and full-length conversations on our YouTube channel.To satiate your AI appetites until then, give a listen to the latest edition of the Cerebral Valley Podcast with my friends and co-hosts Max Child and James Wilsterman. You've listened to us assess whether startups are underrated or overrated and make our draft picks. Now we're looking to the future. We asked Claude and ChatGPT o1 to make some predictions about what will happen in artificial intelligence over the next year. And then we took the over or under on those predictions.Brought to you by BrexBrex knows runway is everything for venture-backed startups, so they built a banking solution that helps them take every dollar further. Unlike traditional banking solutions, Brex has no minimums and gives startups access to 20x the standard FDIC protection via program banks.Plus, startups can earn industry-leading yield from their first dollar — while being able to access their funds anytime. If you want to make sure your portfolio companies have a place to save, spend, and grow their capital, check out Brex here.Chapters* 00:00 — Introduction to AI Predictions* 02:48 — Exploring Predictions for AI in 2025* 06:06 — AI Regulation in Healthcare* 08:53 — Self-Driving Cars and Tesla's Future* 12:04 — AI in News Media* 14:55 — AI-Generated Films and Entertainment* 17:53 — Anthropic's Predictions and AI Co-Processors* 20:59 — AI in Pharmaceutical Development* 24:13 — International AI Treaties and Regulations* 26:47 — Comparing AI Models: ChatGPT vs. Claude* 30:06 — Future of AI and Human Systems* 32:46 — Conclusion and Reflections on AI Predictions Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
This is probably my favorite episode of the year. We just updated our picks for our artificial intelligence startup fantasy draft. That means dropping startups whose star is fading and making new pickups. Last year, Max Child, James Wilsterman, and I drafted the most promising generative AI startups that had raised $100 million or more. In this latest episode, we make some hard choices: cutting loose startups who have lost our favor, cashing in on early acquisitions, and pickup up some new startups. In the process, we weigh in on the buzziest AI startups. Brought to you by BrexBrex knows runway is everything for venture-backed startups, so they built a banking solution that helps them take every dollar further. Unlike traditional banking solutions, Brex has no minimums and gives startups access to 20x the standard FDIC protection via program banks. Plus, startups can earn industry-leading yield from their first dollar — while being able to access their funds anytime. If you want to make sure your portfolio companies have a place to save, spend, and grow their capital, check out Brex here.Catching You Up on Last Year's PicksTo catch you up: here's how last year's draft went down. It started off with me taking on a $75 billion handicap for the right to pick first and draft OpenAI. We proceeded from there in a snake draft with Max picking second and James picking third. Here were the five companies we each drafted last year.Last year's picksEric* OpenAI* Inflection* Character.AI* Glean* Mistral AIMax* Databricks* Pinecone* Cohere* Modular* ImbueJames* Hugging Face* Anthropic* AI21 Labs* Replit* AdeptAltogether on this week's episode we collectively dropped three companies, exited three, and picked up twelve new startups.I don't want to spoil our picks so you'll have to listen to the episode to find out what happened. (As a reminder, the goal here is to accumulate the most total value by November 1, 2028. We aren't worried about the return on our investment just the final end state valuation.)We'd love for you to weigh in in the comments with your own seven startup picks and give us your feedback on what you think of our draft decisions. Give it a listen. Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
We're back with a couple episodes of the Cerebral Valley Podcast leading up to our summit on November 20. I'm joined by my Cerebral Valley AI Summit co-hosts Max Child and James Wilsterman. On this episode, we started by talking about the thing on everyone's minds — the election of Donald Trump and what it means for artificial intelligence. Then, at the 28 minute mark we debate whether Anthropic, Suno, Perplexity, Midjourney, and a bunch of other AI companies live up to the hype in a game of “overrated, underrated, or properly rated.” Episode produced by Christopher GatesTimestamps: * 00:00 — Initial reactions to the results* 06:16 — Energy policy under Trump* 09:25 — Will tariffs replace the CHIPS Act?* 12:23 — Regulation and AI policy in a new era* 21:52 — Black swans in AI and policy* 27:54 — Overrated, underrated, or properly rated? AI's hype meterThe Cerebral Valley AI Summit on November 20 in SFWe'll be hosting an elite group of AI startup founders, investors, and other senior executives on November 20 in San Francisco.Spots are extremely limited, but we always hold back a few spots for founders who are late to get the memo that they should join us. Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
We're in the home stretch. Silicon Valley's political nightmare could hopefully soon be over. In the latest episode of the Newcomer podcast, we dig into all of the tech industry's burning political takes.There was Josh Wolfe's endorsement waffling. Jeff Bezos' editorial intervention. And the general sense that everyone is losing their minds leading up to what should be Trump's last run at the presidency. Later in the episode, we break down General Catalyst's massive fundraise haul and its transition into a “company.” We also discuss Stripe's billion-dollar acquisition of Bridge.Episode produced by Christopher GatesTimestamps: 00:00 — Intro04:13 — The VC political divide09:27 — The Washington Post's editorial debacle12:25 — General Catalyst raises $8B15:38 — Stripe acquires BridgeNote for our listeners: We'll be back with a couple episodes of the Cerebral Valley Podcast starting next week, so stay tuned. Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
Newcomer turns four this week. On the podcast, Madeline talked with me about how it all began. When I made the decision to start Newcomer, the venture capital industry was in the beginnings of a record-breaking bull run. A lot has changed since then, for both venture and the media industry, but I'm excited about our growth at Newcomer and wanted to share a bit more about what's next. Description Eric and Madeline discuss Newcomer's revenue milestones, the growth of Newcomer over the past four years, and what's next for the publication. They also focus on the downturn in the venture industry and how this will affect first-time fund managers. Produced by Christopher GatesChapters 00:00 — Introduction02:08 — Newcomer's 4 Year Anniversary08:22 — Building out a media company in 2024 and what's next15:46 — The venture downturn vs. new emerging funds22:02 — X-energy's $500 million raise22:42 — $100 million for Path Robotics Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
DescriptionIn this episode, Eric Newcomer is joined by guest host Jon McNeill, a seasoned executive with experience at Lyft and Tesla who is now leading DVx Ventures. They discuss the bear case for OpenAI. The OpenAI discussion then leads into a closer look at the contrast between founder and manager modes before concluding with a discussion on Tesla's advancements, or lack thereof, in self-driving technology. Produced by Christopher GatesChapters: 00:00 — Introduction03:27 — Bear case for OpenAI13:07 — Founder mode management17:20 — Tesla promises, but SpaceX delivers Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
Description: In this episode of the Newcomer Podcast, Eric Newcomer and Madeline Renbarger discuss two major funding rounds, the ongoing downturn in VC funding, and the growing imbalance between public relations professionals and reporters. Eric and Madeline highlight Poolside's $500M round and Impulse Space's $150M raise, while pointing out that even the AI mega rounds cant hide the downturn in VC funding.Produced by Christopher GatesAudio Chapters: 00:00:18 — Poolside's $500M round 00:02:24 — Impulse Space's $150M raise00:05:17 — Downturn in VC00:11:03 — The imbalance between PR and journalism Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
In this episode of the Newcomer Podcast, hosts Eric Newcomer and Madeline Renbarger delve into the world of venture capital deals, starting with Ujet's $76M Series D for its AI-powered call center software. Next up is the drama surrounding PearAI, whose growth-hacker tweet set the tech world buzzing. From there, they navigate through OpenAI's own “Game of Thrones,” exploring internal power plays and high-stakes exits, before turning to California's latest AI regulatory battles. To wrap things up, they call for some balance in Silicon Valley's escalating discourse around drugs and psychedelics.Chapters:00:22 Ujet01:40 PearAI05:49 Open AI11:45 AI Regulation16:34 Drugs + SV Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
Episode 1: AI + Robots, YC Preview, and Why the Cool Kids Keep Picking on TechIn this week's episode of the Newcomer Podcast, hosts Eric Newcomer and Madeline Renbarger discuss three top venture capital deals, including World Labs and delivery startup Flink. They also wade into Y Combinator's upcoming Demo Day, highlighting trends in defense tech and the implications of AI's power consumption.The conversation touches on Runway's licensing deal with Lionsgate and concludes with an examination of John Mulaney's performance at Dreamforce.Chapters* 00:00 World Labs: A New Era in AI Robotics* 05:10 The Rise and Fall of Delivery Startups* 09:19 Y Combinator's Demo Day* 11:46 Defense Tech* 20:09 Powering AI: The Nuclear Debate* 24:24 Runway's Licensing Deal* 28:02 John Mulaney's Roast Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
Today we're highlighting two fireside chats from the Newcomer Banking Summit on March 14. First up is Mercury CEO Immad Akhund. He talked about how the Silicon Valley Bank crisis sent customers rushing to his digital banking service. He pitched a world where software — not human bankers — solve most of customers' problems. Akhund told me, “My experience with relationship banking was I need to send a wire and I literally cannot figure out to do it, please help me. Which to me never felt like a relationship, it felt very transactional and painful — and with Mercury you don't have to do that.” Mercury is limited by the fact that it is not a bank — it's a software company on top of banking partners — at a time when regulators are looking closely at how banks work with fintech partners.We concluded our summit with Jackie Reses — who was a top executive at Square before leaving to buy a bank. Reses is the CEO of Lead Bank, a regional Kansas City bank that still serves local customers but has built an onramp for financial technology companies to connect with the banking system.“The thing I saw at Square — which I consider to be a very strong, innovative fintech — is that owning a bank and operating a bank is a 10X delta in understanding compliance to working in a tech company,” Reses said. At Square, Reses said, she learned to “appreciate the complexity of what it takes to do this, so that we could learn how to serve our clients better and help them scale — but make sure we never put ourselves in the position to risk the relationship that we have operating with our regulators.”You can give the episodes a listen or watch them on YouTube.Also: The Future of Banking with Rho, Jiko, and RippleIn case you missed it, we've posted another panel with three fintech/banking leaders. Rho CEO Everett Cook, Jiko CEO Stephane Lintner, and Ripple President Monica Long are all trying to solve shortcomings in the legacy banking system, with different approaches. Check it out to see their takes on the major problems with banking today. Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
We've got two great sessions from the Newcomer Banking Summit for you: * First up, WestCap Group founder Laurence Tosi and Lux Capital co-founder Peter Hébert. They give an unvarnished account of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank with the benefit of hindsight. “It was like the banking equivalent of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan,” Hébert said. “It was absolute sheer terror.”* We follow that up with Silicon Valley Bank President Marc Cadieux, who talks about where SVB is today and fields questions about all the new competition his reconstituted bank, now owned by First Citizens, is facing.I thought Tosi and Hébert's talk was the spiciest of the day. And Cadieux was the man of the hour. I wanted to know where his head was at one year after the crisis. You can give the episodes a listen or watch them on YouTube. Breaking the Bank: BCV's Matt HarrisIf you missed it, yesterday I published a talk from Bain Capital Ventures' Matt Harris. In the headline, I made a mortifying error and used the acronym of another VC firm. Harris is Bain Capital Ventures' fintech guru; he gave a great presentation and I had nightmares last night about my mixup. Apologies!Here's that talk: Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
Today, we have a double episode for you — two conversations from the Cerebral Valley AI Summit.Reid Hoffman was fresh off a meeting with President Joe Biden when Hoffman and I sat down on stage at the Cerebral Valley AI Summit Nov. 15. On stage, he told us that working to get Biden elected next year is one of his top priorities. Then, I sat down with the ever-feisty Vinod Khosla. The investor called for a TikTok ban and more welcoming immigration policies while warning against open-source artificial intelligence projects.Thousands of enterprises around the world rely on Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) to power applications that drive their businesses. OCI customers include leaders across industries, such as healthcare, scientific research, financial services, telecommunications, and more.NVIDIA DGX Cloud on OCI is an AI training-as-a-service platform for customers to train complex AI models like generative AI applications. Included with DGX Cloud, NVIDIA AI Enterprise brings the software layer of the NVIDIA AI platform to OCI.Talk with Oracle about accelerating your GPU workloads.Hoffman Plans to Go Big for BidenHoffman, fresh off a meeting with President Biden, kicked off the afternoon with a strong endorsement of the President's record. Hoffman praised Biden for his recent executive order on artificial intelligence. Reid called himself “a 95%-98% supporter” of the executive order, endorsing provisions on reporting and monitoring, “red team” testing, and voluntary commitments by companies that might eventually be enforced via the Defense Production Act. But he pushed back on the idea that the FTC should be monitoring the AI industry for anti-competitive conduct.“Startups are not being impeded right now,” he asserted, despite the apparent dominance of OpenAI and the mega-cap tech companies. Reid sits on the board of Microsoft, and offered that he was in fact “first money in” on OpenAI, through his personal foundation, but he's not concerned about, er, his own companies having too much power. “I don't think it constrains competition on any level.”Hoffman is always happy to engage on policy, and I asked him what he thought about Marc Andreessen's recent “techno-optimist” manifesto, which denigrates the very idea of government oversight. Reid said he was a techno-optimist too, and half-joked that Andreessen “quoted kind of liberally from things I've written and said” without any attribution. But Hoffman said that he's not on board with Andreessen's approach. “It's kind of dumb to think that when you have major technologies there can't be negative side effects,” he said, noting that all his AI projects have safety teams. “Tech can be amazing. Let's be intentional about building.”Khosla Wins Cheers from the Cerebral Valley AudienceVenture capitalist Vinod Khosla confirmed that his firm, boosted by an early stake in OpenAI, was about to close on $3 billion in commitments for a new fund. Valuations are high, he said, “but just because valuations are high doesn't mean it isn't a good time to invest.”He's not buying existential risk, calling it “nonsensical” talk from academics who had nothing better to do. But he's long on China risk, saying the U.S. is in a “techno-economic war” with China and needs to fight hard. “I would ban TikTok in a nano-second,” he said, unlike his predecessor on stage, Hoffman, who Khosla said he very much admired. Khosla is firmly against open-source AI models as well due to the China risk.Bio-risk and cyber risk are real concerns too, he noted.But if China or rogue viruses don't kill us, Khosla thinks the near-future is very bright: “I do think in 10 years we'll have free doctors, free tutors, free lawyers” all powered by AI. Khosla also gave a grudging endorsement of the Biden Executive Order, saying it was “okay.” But like most Silicon Valley moguls, he has no time for antitrust issues. “We have to get people like Khan out of there,” he said, referring to the chair of the FTC (though misstating her name), calling her “crazy, left-wing.” Khosla said he's long believed that AI would force us to “redefine what it is to me human.”Meantime he himself plans another 25 years of VC investing, and if all goes well, maybe more. Give it a listen Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
We were delighted to kick off the 2nd Cerebral Valley AI Summit with Ali Ghodsi, CEO of Databricks, and Naveen Rao, co-founder of MosaicML. Their encounter at our debut event in March led to Ghodsi buying Rao's company, which had little revenue, for $1.3 billion. At our event on Nov. 15, the two discussed how the deal came together quickly after meeting at the conference dinner. Thousands of enterprises around the world rely on Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) to power applications that drive their businesses. OCI customers include leaders across industries, such as healthcare, scientific research, financial services, telecommunications, and more.NVIDIA DGX Cloud on OCI is an AI training-as-a-service platform for customers to train complex AI models like generative AI applications. Included with DGX Cloud, NVIDIA AI Enterprise brings the software layer of the NVIDIA AI platform to OCI.Talk with Oracle about accelerating your GPU workloads.Ghodsi recounted how he started spending some time with Rao and thought, “these guys are pretty good,” and then by chance noticed an employee he respected poking around with MosaicML and offering a strong endorsement. Soon Ghodsi was on the phone with the head of his deals team, who told him “if you want to buy these guys you have to do it this weekend.” Rao said by that point “you kind of know he's going to pop the question,” and once they worked out the money, the deal was done.The two executives certainly seemed to be in harmony as they touted the potential benefits from their combination, which in simple terms will bring MosaicML's expertise in building specialized generative AI models to Databricks' corporate data platform products, essentially super-charging Databricks for the generative AI era. They were eager to defend the idea of open-source foundation models that are specific to certain tasks, rejecting the notion that general-purpose models like ChatGPT-4 will eventually swallow everything. (This conversation took place before OpenAI was thrown into chaos by its board of directors.)Ghodsi said calls to limit open-source models on the grounds that they'll be too easily exploited by bad actors a “horrible, horrendous” idea that would “put a stop to all innovation.” “It's essential that we have an open-source ecosystem,” he said, noting that even now it's unclear how a lot of AI models work, and open-source research will be critical to answering those questions.Rao added that many of the people making predictions about how AI would develop are “full of s**t.” On the safety question, he noted that cost alone would stand in the way of any existential risks for a long time, and in the meantime the focus should be on real threats like disinformation and robot safety.Give it a listen Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
If you could amass any five artificial intelligence startup bets right now, which companies would you pick? My Cerebral Valley co-hosts and I took a stab at answering that question with an artificial intelligence startup draft. Our startup draft starts at 27:35 after a discussion of some of the biggest themes going into this week's Cerebral Valley AI Summit. The draft gave us a chance to dissect some of the most promising startups in artificial intelligence right now. The goal was to amass five companies with the biggest valuation five years from now. We restricted ourselves to AI startups that had raised more than $100 million. I encourage you to make your own prediction in the comments. Give it a listen Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
For this week's episode, I spoke with Chris Miller, the author of Chip War, about the rise of Nvidia. While OpenAI gets the lion's share of the public adulation for the sudden excitement about generative intelligence, Nvidia's H100 chips are powering much of the generative AI frenzy. Nvidia's stock has climbed over 200% over the past 12 months. And the company has become a key investor in generative AI startups.Miller (who comes on the show around the 41-minute mark) talks through Nvidia's history and the geopolitical war raging over the production of chips.In the first part of the episode, Cerebral Valley AI Summit co-hosts Max Child, James Wilsterman, and I discuss how big technology companies are working to fend off this new generation of AI startups. Give it a listen Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
I'm back from my honeymoon in Japan. Thanks for sticking with the newsletter as I celebrated my wedding this year. Expect more of my newsletter writing soon. If you have tips or story ideas for me, you can always reach out at eric@newcomer.co.I hope you've been enjoying the Cerebral Valley podcast series while I've been gone. If you missed the first three episodes, you can check them out in the links below:* The Cerebral Valley Podcast: Artificial Intelligence Becomes Reality* AI Kills Us All (with Daniel H. Wilson)* Someday That NPC Could Be More Alive Than You Are (w/ Amy Wu & Keith Kawahata)On this week's episode of our Cerebral Valley podcast, co-hosts Max Child, James Wilsterman, and I talk about how artificial intelligence is actually affecting our lives today. Then at the 34:40 mark, I talk with DoNotPay CEO Joshua Browder. His company is helping consumers cancel their gym memberships, dispute charges, and otherwise stand up to big corporations. Browder got some heat for planning to have an artificial intelligence-powered lawyer argue in court. Ultimately, he reversed course under pressure from the legal world. Browder envisions a world where AI is fighting other AIs. Companies use artificial intelligence to power their chatbots and to handle customer support. Consumers need to be armed with similarly powerful AI-powered tools to resist those companies. Give it a listen Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
Video games often represent the frontier of any new technology. Many of the most popular applications in the initial iPhone app store were games. Today's virtual reality devices are dominated by video games. Artificial intelligence seems poised to upend the video game business and entertainment more broadly.On the third episode of our six-part Cerebral Valley podcast series, Max Child, James Wilsterman, and I game out how artificial intelligence could reshape the media we consume. It helps that Max and James are the co-founders of Volley, which builds AI-enabled games. They develop many of the most popular voice games on the Amazon Alexa and smart TV platforms like Roku. Max and James have been deep in the trenches of conversational-style gaming and have spent a lot of time thinking about how humans interact with ever smarter computers.In the second half of the episode, I talk with Menlo Ventures partner Amy Wu, who focuses on gaming and consumer investments, and Keith Kawahata, a former executive at Wargaming, AppLovin, and Kabam, who now has a stealth artificial intelligence gaming startup. Wu helps to articulate a three-part thesis on how artificial intelligence might change the gaming business. (1) artificial intelligence will help with the creation of the game art and graphics, (2) AI can create more sophisticated non-player characters, and (3) AI can help write the code of the game itself.One of the things that I was struck by from the conversation is that games may have a big leg up in implementing artificial intelligence over movies — because people interact so much more with a gaming, giving it tons of data to react to. While TikToks can learn what small populations of people like and what an individual likes over a long time, a game could learn a lot about a user in a single play session.Of course, there are real hurdles left standing. Most notably, text-to-image generation so far is mostly two-dimensional. Despite everything that's happened, image generation models aren't just whipping out 3-D levels that are ready to play. And it could be a while until non-player characters are as smart as humans. But imagine playing a game of Grand Theft Auto or Red Dead Redemption and the characters roaming around the game are self-aware agents with their own thoughts and drives. Give it a listenP.S. I'm on my honeymoon right now in Japan. I was working frantically to record these episodes before I left. My chief of staff Riley Konsella is sending the episodes out for me while I'm gone. If you need anything while I'm away, you should email Riley.Thanks in advance for being understanding that this newsletter is slowing down for my honeymoon. I'm going to dedicate myself to relaxing over the next two weeks so that I come back hungrier than ever. Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
What's so crazy about this moment in artificial intelligence is that many of the most credible voices in AI think there's a real chance that this all turns out really, really badly. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei recently pegged his “chance that something goes really quite catastrophically wrong on the scale of human civilization” between 10% and 25%. That's comforting.Applications to attend the Cerebral Valley AI Summit close TODAY October 17. Apply right now to be considered for an invitation!On the series' first episode we reflect on how generative artificial intelligence and large language models took Silicon Valley by storm.So in our second episode of the six-part Cerebral Valley podcast, Max Child, James Wilsterman, and I played out the doomsday scenarios. We talked a lot about science fiction and how writers have imagined artificial intelligence turning dystopian.In the second half of the episode, I talked with science fiction author Daniel H. Wilson. He wrote the books How to Survive a Robot Uprising, Where's My Jetpack?, and How to Build a Robot Army. Wilson has also consulted with the military to help them game out how dystopian technologies might unfold. Of course, even in the Anthropic CEO's estimation, the most likely scenario is probably a more boring one: artificial intelligence doesn't try to secretly destroy us as we sleep in our beds. But the fact that there's a chance is certainly worth considering.I open our conversation with the parable “The unfinished fable of the sparrows” from Nick Bostrom's Superintelligence.It was the nest-building season, but after days of long hard work, the sparrows sat in the evening glow, relaxing and chirping away.“We are all so small and weak. Imagine how easy life would be if we had an owl who could help us build our nests!”“Yes!” said another. “And we could use it to look after our elderly and our young.”“It could give us advice and keep an eye out for the neighborhood cat,” added a third.Then Pastus, the elder-bird, spoke: “Let us send out scouts in all directions and try to find an abandoned owlet somewhere, or maybe an egg. A crow chick might also do, or a baby weasel. This could be the best thing that ever happened to us, at least since the opening of the Pavilion of Unlimited Grain in yonder backyard.”The flock was exhilarated, and sparrows everywhere started chirping at the top of their lungs.Only Scronkfinkle, a one-eyed sparrow with a fretful temperament, was unconvinced of the wisdom of the endeavor. Quoth he: “This will surely be our undoing. Should we not give some thought to the art of owl-domestication and owl-taming first, before we bring such a creature into our midst?”Replied Pastus: “Taming an owl sounds like an exceedingly difficult thing to do. It will be difficult enough to find an owl egg. So let us start there. After we have succeeded in raising an owl, then we can think about taking on this other challenge.”“There is a flaw in that plan!” squeaked Scronkfinkle; but his protests were in vain as the flock had already lifted off to start implementing the directives set out by Pastus.Just two or three sparrows remained behind. Together they began to try to work out how owls might be tamed or domesticated. They soon realized that Pastus had been right: this was an exceedingly difficult challenge, especially in the absence of an actual owl to practice on. Nevertheless they pressed on as best they could, constantly fearing that the flock might return with an owl egg before a solution to the control problem had been found.Give it a listen. P.S. I'm on my honeymoon right now in Japan. I was working frantically to record these episodes before I left. My chief of staff Riley Konsella is sending the episodes out for me while I'm gone. If you need anything while I'm away, you should email Riley. Thanks in advance for being understanding that this newsletter is slowing down for my honeymoon. I'm going to dedicate myself to relaxing over the next two weeks so that I come back hungrier than ever. Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
In the past 12 months, it has felt like “AI” transformed from a pair of letters that companies affixed to their latest product announcements to get some extra marketing luster to the shorthand for a genuine technology revolution. ChatGPT, Dall-E, Midjourney, and more showed the world what artificial intelligence is now capable of doing. Then, the funding started pouring in for every startup that had anything to do with those two letters. Every venture firm needed to bet on their own foundational model and every startup needed to get its hands on Nvidia's H100s to train their own foundation models. Ahead of the 2nd Cerebral Valley AI Summit on Nov. 15, I wanted to really take stock of how we got here. So I teamed up with my conference co-hosts Max Child and James Wilsterman to bring you a six-part podcast series on the rise of generative artificial intelligence.You can apply to attend the Cerebral Valley AI Summit here. Applications close Oct. 16. On the series' first episode we reflect on how generative artificial intelligence and large language models took Silicon Valley by storm. With the help of ChatGPT, we consider the top research papers that brought us here, the most important historic milestones along the journey, the key artificial intelligence products on the market today, and how artificial intelligence is already impacting our lives. The show is fun and and lighthearted. I hope it's a little more accessible than the usual fodder on the Newcomer podcast. For instance, on a future Cerebral Valley episode, we're going to do a draft pick of what we think will be the most valuable AI startups. On upcoming episodes, I interview guests like Daniel H. Wilson — author of How to Survive a Robot Uprising, Where's My Jetpack? and How to Build a Robot Army — and DoNotPay CEO Joshua Browder.If you've never listened to the Newcomer podcast before, this is a good time to give it a shot. Die-hard podcast listeners will remember Max and James, who are the founders of the AI voice games company Volley, from my January episode on augmented reality.Whether you can make it to Cerebral Valley in person or not, my hope is that this series is a solid primer as to what exactly has been going on in the business of artificial intelligence. I follow this stuff super closely and until we got organized for this podcast series there was so much that I hadn't learned. I know most of you won't be able to come to the conference in person, but there will be a virtual conference in this newsletter. We will publish recordings from the summit on our YouTube channel and send out some of our favorites over the podcast feed. So this is your lively refresher on all the crazy stuff that happened in Silicon Valley artificial intelligence startups this year. Give it a listen.Apply to attend the Cerebral Valley AI Summit here. Applications close Oct. 16. P.S. I'm on my honeymoon right now in Japan. I was working frantically to record these episodes before I left. My chief of staff Riley Konsella is sending the episodes out for me while I'm gone. If you need anything while I'm away, you should email Riley. Thanks in advance for being understanding that this newsletter is slowing down for my honeymoon. I'm going to dedicate myself to relaxing over the next two weeks so that I come back hungrier than ever. Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
I brought two top Silicon Valley entrepreneurs working on extending lifespans on the Newcomer podcast this week. One of them is trying to help people live longer. The other, their dogs.James Peyer, the CEO of Cambrian Bio, is acquiring majority stakes in drugs that could combat a particular illness while showing promise for broader use among healthy humans. Meanwhile, Celine Halioua, the CEO of Loyal, is developing drugs to make dogs live longer. Fundamentally life extension, or longevity, is about finding drugs and treatments that can be given to healthy humans to help them live longer, healthier lives. Instead of just treating illnesses, entrepreneurs in the space want to find ways to stave off aging in already healthy people. The space has long been a fascination of mine. In February 2022, I profiled Elad Gil's investments in an array of companies looking to make healthy humans live longer, healthier lives.The HBO show Silicon Valley helped popularize the idea that Silicon Valley elites were pumping their veins with younger people's blood. (I've yet to get anyone to confess to me that they're buying plasma.)To the chagrin of this week's guests, one tech mogul desperate to avoid death has received a lot of the attention recently. That's Braintree founder Bryan Johnson. Time magazine just profiled Johnson under the headline “The Man Who Thinks He Can Live Forever.” Johnson, 46, is a centimillionaire tech entrepreneur who has spent most of the last three years in pursuit of a singular goal: don't die. During that time, he's spent more than $4 million developing a life-extension system called Blueprint, in which he outsources every decision involving his body to a team of doctors, who use data to develop a strict health regimen to reduce what Johnson calls his “biological age.” That system includes downing 111 pills every day, wearing a baseball cap that shoots red light into his scalp, collecting his own stool samples, and sleeping with a tiny jet pack attached to his penis to monitor his nighttime erections. Johnson thinks of any act that accelerates aging—like eating a cookie, or getting less than eight hours of sleep—as an “act of violence.” Even as Johnson is getting a lot of attention for his self-experimentation, there's a growing view that there could be something credible behind Silicon Valley's interest in life extension. The Economist just wrote that “slowing human ageing is now the subject of serious research.”Many in mainstream science and medicine look at all this slightly askance. That is understandable. It is an area which attracts chancers and charlatans as well as those with more decent motives, and its history is littered with “breakthroughs” that have led more or less nowhere. America's Food and Drug Administration does not recognise “old age” as a disease state, and thus as a suitable target for therapy. Nevertheless, evidence has been accumulating that such research might have something to offer.Some established drugs really do seem to extend life, at least in mice. That offers both the possibility that they might do so in people and some insight into the processes involved. The ever-greater ease with which genes can be edited helps such investigations, as does access to large amounts of gene-sequence data. The ability to produce personalised stem cells, which stay forever young, has opened up new therapeutic options. And new diagnostic tools are now offering scientists means to calculate the “biological ages” of bodies and organs and compare them with actual calendar ages. In principle this allows longevity studies to achieve convincing results in less than a lifetime.I dug in with Halioua and Peyer about where they saw the most opportunities, how their own companies were progressing, and why they thought Johnson's publicity campaign was doing a disservice to companies working on longevity. The duo helped break down the space, discussing which types of companies they think are innovators, which efforts are more speculative moonshots, and which ones are simply snake oil. Give it a listen. Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
Chris Lehane was once the consummate Democratic spin man and campaign wonk. He introduced the world to the vast right-wing conspiracy against the Clintons. In 2015, Lehane dove into the high-growth startup world. He joined Airbnb to run policy and communications. He taught the home sharing company how to fight nicely with cities, dishing out data and tax cooperation in exchange for favorable local regulations. Unlike Uber's confrontational approach that had it going to war with Bill de Blasio in New York City, Airbnb tried to foster a cozy relationship with urban policymakers.Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky and President Barack Obama built a tight relationship. A year ago, just as the crypto winter was starting, Lehane joined Katie Haun's self-named venture fund, which had raised $1.5 billion. Haun Ventures positioned itself as a leader in regulation, policy, and communications. Haun is a former assistant U.S. attorney. Rachael Horwitz, the firm's chief marketing officer, once ran communications for Coinbase. And Lehane brought the political experience, especially with Democrats. But there's only so much one firm can do to change crypto's reputation in Washington, especially with Democrats. Sam Bankman-Fried, the former CEO of FTX, had become the crypto world's standard bearer with Democrats, donating to their campaigns and speaking to their values. Then when Bankman-Fried's empire unraveled and he headed to jail, many Democrats grew disillusioned with crypto. This year, two Republican-led House committees moved forward crypto-friendly legislation that would clarify the regulation of crypto currencies and give the Commodities Futures Trading Commission more power to regulate crypto (denying the SEC some of that power). Meanwhile, the Biden appointed SEC chair Gary Gensler has sued crypto exchange Coinbase and Binance for failing to register their exchanges with the SEC. I invited Lehane on the Newcomer podcast to take stock of crypto's status in Washington. We talked about the bills working their way through Congress, the SEC lawsuits, and the crypto winter. Lehane and I also talked about how he believed that America needed to embrace a “common sector” that served as a hybrid between government regulation and corporate self-regulation. Think Airbnb data sharing with cities or Facebook's oversight board. We also commiserated over co-existing with Silicon Valley Republicans in the MAGA era. Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
I spend most of my time here talking about how people earn their money.Rey Flemings, the chief executive of the YC-backed startup Myria, is an expert at helping people spend it. For several years, Flemings ran a luxury services consultancy for family offices. In other words, he threw parties in Las Vegas, introduced billionaires to celebrities, rented out private mansions, and helped people acquire things money can't usually buy. These days, Flemings is building a startup around the same concept. Letting rich people buy what isn't on the market. He's building a marketplace for off-market travel and accommodations. On top of that, he's spinning up a social network for the ultra wealthy. Flemings says his average member's net worth is about $600 million. I sat down with Flemings to talk about his startup and to understand how Silicon Valley's most successful people are spending the fantastical sums that they've earned in the past few years. He warned about the unhappiness that sudden fortune can bring, calling it “the success condition.”We're all humans. We're all chasing the American Dream. We're all chasing success. And when you achieve it, one of the first discoveries that people are shocked by is that you have to pump the brakes. Money doesn't buy happiness. I was talking with a new client the other day and he said, “Ray, I can't talk about this publicly, the world would play the world's smallest violin, but the day I exited triggered the deepest and greatest period of depression in my life.”Give it a listen.Highlighted ExcerptsThe transcript has been edited for clarity.There is a phenomenon in Silicon Valley where someone suddenly becomes rich, especially when their entire net worth is tied up in a startup. Finally, they sell the company and now have all this money, but don't really know how to be wealthy or what to buy. What typically happens when somebody sells their company for a billion dollars and gets 300 million of it?Rey Flemings: First of all, there's no one-size-fits-all answer, right? We're different. Significant, sudden, great wealth does come with a particular set of challenges. Zooming out across 15-17 years in this space and looking at all of the folks that work here, zoom all the way out. Let's just focus on first-generation people who are operating a business and/or they're doing something presently to amass that wealth. I've worked with probably 100-125 folks in that category. I hear the same things over and over, so often that we have even coined a name for it — we call it the Success Condition.It goes something like this: We're all humans. We're all chasing the American Dream. We're all chasing success. And when you achieve it, one of the first discoveries that people are shocked by is that you have to pump the brakes. Money doesn't buy happiness. I was talking with a new client the other day and he said, “Ray, I can't talk about this publicly, the world would play the world's smallest violin, but the day I exited triggered the deepest and greatest period of depression in my life.”What ends up happening is we chase the American Dream only to realize it and then we're like “Wait, why am I not happy? What's missing here?” Rich people get sad, depressed and commit suicide just like anyone else. Studies show that beyond about $100,000 a year, any more money doesn't actually contribute to human happiness. The wealthier and more successful you become, the harder it is to form close interpersonal relationships with people that aren't in your network.Break down what was the motivation to do Y Combinator and build more of a tech platform for Myria?Rey: Fantastic question, Eric. I'd love to sound like I had this all planned out and was so smart with so much foresight. I knew I wanted to build a scalable business with my background. But when I started The Blue, I ran it for 5-6 years before we could start Myria. It was complicated. How do you scale services? Many say you can't scale services. If so, what do you scale and how? How do you keep customers happy who want white glove service and personalization? How do you provide that special touch at scale? These are really hard problems to solve.I grew that business bootstrapped to about $60 million GMV annually. If you do that, you stay busy. I didn't know my kids, family, or myself. I was always on a plane, just work, work, work. That's not sustainable.At least you get to go to parties sometimes?Rey: Yeah, almost always in that business. I just celebrated my 50th birthday. I don't have to tell you I didn't want to spend the rest of my life on a plane in a suit. That's no way to live.It turns out that when we started Myria, we asked clients what they wanted. Ninety-two percent of requests fell into just three categories. People wanted our global travel product — not just booking a flight or kayak to Toledo. Really crazy, experiential travel beyond a private jet. When you get off the private jet, what happens? The best things in the world you can't find on Google. If you can't search for them, how do you know what's on the menu? There's a whole universe of off-market awesomeness in every category, but no one tells you about them because they aren't online.Travel experiences, people, and assets. When you're running a big company, you have an amazing team. When you hit $300 million net worth, you probably move to a single family office with teams managing your wealth. But for your personal life, even with household employees, you want to relax at home. A person worth $3 billion wouldn't run their company with one person, but their personal life becomes a multi-billion dollar enterprise with homes, kids, divorce, assets everywhere. Assistants work hard but can't be experts in everything billionaires need help in.We asked clients what they wanted and 92% of requests were in three categories. Also, there are about 20 markets ultra wealthy care about. If we have great coverage in those categories in those markets, we've covered nearly all use cases.I've always wondered — if I'm at Bezos' level of wealth, do I try to get everybody who interacts with me to sign an NDA? Especially if I'm out partying on a yacht, is everybody at that party signing something to keep things confidential?Rey: On the Myria platform, everyone who sells to our members is automatically under binding arbitration. The wealthy are targets for frivolous litigation. We try to prevent that.In real life, if you're hosting a party, many will request or demand NDAs and lock up phones, like Dave Chappelle style with magnetically locked bags. I think that's good considering phone addiction. You've thrown a million dollar party for people's enjoyment but they just look at their phones. But there are gaps. I can share a horror story.We did an expensive, innocent party at an incredible estate with famous people relaxing and having fun — nothing unprintable. But no one wanted cameras in their face while relaxing Someone who signed the NDA went to the press implying we discriminated by only having women sign NDAs, not the men. The men were dear friends of the client, so they didn't have to sign. Sometimes NDAs can backfire.Do you require NDAs for everything?Rey: We try to on the platform but nothing substitutes for having a good group of trustworthy people, which is harder as you become more successful. It's become a sport to vilify the rich, making it harder to form close relationships outside your network. Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
Jane Poynter spent two years and 20 minutes in a biosphere back in the early 1990s. (There's a documentary about it.) Later, Poynter set her sights on a mission to Mars. Wired wrote in 2014, “Meet the Couple Who Could Be the First Humans to Travel to Mars.” The story was about Poynter and her husband, Taber MacCallum. These days, the duo is working together on building a hydrogen balloon that will take tourists to space for $125,000. Poytner came on the podcast to talk about her startup, Space Perspective. We also discussed SpaceX, Elon Musk, Virgin Galactic, and the state of the adventure tourism industry in light of the deep sea deaths on a OceanGate submersible headed to the Titanic. On the show, Poynter said that Space Perspective, which has about 130 employees, has raised almost $70 million. Prime Movers Lab and LightShed Ventures are major investors, Poynter said. She told us that she hopes to commercial operations “around the end of 2024.” Venture capitalist, chief of staff newsletter author, and AI event host Ali Rohde joined me as a guest co-host for the episode. (She's a friend of the show and I'm exploring different podcast episode formats. I always welcome your feedback and advice. In that spirit, I'll mention that I'm still looking for a podcast producer.)Think of the episode as part two in my exploration of space startups. Last week, I talked with Delian Asparouhov, the co-founder of Varda Space Industries. This week, we interrogate space tourism. Give it a listen.Highlighted ExcerptsThe transcript has been edited for clarity.What if anything did you take away from the OceanGate situation?Jane: What's fascinating is we got almost no customer questions or refund requests due to the OceanGate accident. It's incredibly different from what we do. Also, in the 60+ years of deep ocean submersible operations there had never been a fatal accident until that incident. You have to ask why. I don't want to focus on OceanGate specifically, but the big takeaway for us was that we embrace regulatory oversight. We want the FAA and Coast Guard to work with us since we also operate at sea. We go so far beyond any standards they would set that it's good for us and the industry to have that accountability and transparency. That was the main takeaway: We welcome reasonable regulations and oversight.Space tourism more akin to safaris than Virgin GalacticJane: It's interesting that you talk about Blue Origin and Virgin not being competition because the experience is so differentiated from what we offer. Our experience is more akin to incredible safaris, trips to Antarctica, and other wonder travel that deeply transforms people. That's why we priced our tickets at $125,000. It's in line with those kinds of life-changing experiences. When Antarctica tourism opened up, there was a huge demand from people willing to pay high prices for a once-in-a-lifetime trip. We're seeing incredible excitement and demand from customers wanting to go to space with us. We have an event coming up soon with over 100 of our explorers gathering here, and they all want to connect with each other too. We're building a real community around spaceflight and this experience. It's going to be such an extraordinary, bonding experience for people. I truly believe it will bring people together in a deep way.You mentioned Blue Origin, Virgin, and SpaceX — obviously some of the first names people think of when space is mentioned like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos. They are controversial figures, likely quite different from our target customer base. But I'm curious. What do you think about them? Are you grateful for how they've helped popularize and mainstream space travel?Jane: Taber and I worked with Elon before he started SpaceX, so we have an interesting perspective. In the early days of SpaceX, space tourism was considered a joke and the idea that commercial companies could enable space travel or moon/Mars missions was insane. It was assumed that only governments could do that. Elon deserves a lot of credit; Gwynne Shotwell too. She's done an incredible job revolutionizing the space industry by lowering costs, improving efficiency and effectiveness, and showing us what's possible. SpaceX paved the way for the over 100 small rocket companies operating now, which never would have happened without that trailblazing. So while there are likely narrative or cultural elements we wouldn't fully align with, overall we are absolutely grateful for the pivotal role SpaceX played in advancing commercial space and making it seem achievable.What excites you about exploring space?Jane: When I think about space exploration, I don't view it as leaving Earth never to return. I actually quite like this planet! To me, space exploration is more of an extension of the perspective-broadening we do now. When people look down on Planet Earth from space, it's a mind-blowing experience. Now imagine yourself standing on the moon or Mars and seeing Earth. It's that exponentially more impactful. It will give people a wildly different perspective on what it means for all of us to live together. We should think of ourselves as one human family living on Spaceship Earth. As we venture farther out, it will become increasingly clear that we're holding up a mirror to humanity, seeing ourselves somewhere other than Earth for the first time. It's a wild concept. So that's how I view space, not as leaving the planet but expanding our perspective to appreciate that we're all in this together.How do you prevent accidents in the air?Jane: A common question we get is what happens if something goes wrong with the balloon? The balloon technology is incredibly well understood with a long legacy. Hundreds have been flown in the last 20 years without a single in-flight incident. However, we obviously need backup systems. We have a series of parachutes, similar to those used on SpaceX's Dragon capsules or other space vehicles. They are robust, proven parachutes. We have four total, with only two needed for a safe landing. The parachutes are only used in an emergency scenario because normally the ship ascends under the balloon and descends back onto the balloon, keeping the flight system consistent. This is a very safe approach, never transitioning between flight systems. We've focused on simplicity everywhere possible because simpler systems tend to be safer overall. Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
Last time I remember writing about Varda co-founder and Founders Fund partner Delian Asparouhov, I was giving him a hard time about his subdued impromptu Clubhouse run-in with then San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin who he'd been flaming on Twitter.But since then, Asparouhov has mellowed out online. When I texted him after our podcast recording session and mentioned that his Founders Fund colleague Mike Solana was sassing me on Elon Musk's social networking platform, Asparouhov wrote back, “Bro I'm tryna do 3 jobs over here. I don't have time to pay attention to what Solana is up to.”Besides Varda and Founders Fund, I wondered what the third job was.He texted me back, “Fatherhood.”On the latest episode of the Newcomer podcast Asparouhov and I covered a lot of ground. We talked about Varda's satellite mission and its ambitions to manufacture in space. We discussed SpaceX's reusable rocket and the media conversation around Starship's explosion. Asparouhov mused about UFOs and missions to Mars. It was a wide-ranging conversation about space and technology.The conversation started off digging into Varda's excited research into LK-99.Varda ran an experiment which they initially thought might show verification of room temperature semiconductors.By the time we recorded our conversation, you could tell Asparouhov was more muted about Varda's findings.Later he tweeted, “alas, the rocks we made floated due to iron impurities.”Highlighted ExcerptsThe transcript has been edited for clarity.Eric: What is Varda's focus at the moment?Delian: Our goal is to take some of the research that's been shown on the International Space Station to have a ton of promise in terms of, as we've been talking about, solid state formulation. It turns out solid state formulation is significantly affected by gravity - that may also be true in superconductors. So one day down the line, if somebody does discover these formulations and they're showing issues that we think gravity could actually solve, there's a world where Varda flies a superconductor. You know, four or five years, definitely not anytime soon, given that the biopharma side is so much more preserved currently.Eric: I'm gonna be dumb again. To me, solid state is like hard drives. Is that what you mean by solid state formulation?Delian: If you look at what's happening both in superconductors and what we do in the pharma world, you're taking things that start as very fine grain powders or liquids and making solid state crystalline versions of them. In the pharma world that ends up looking like a little bit of table salt that you take, and it turns out that thing actually has drug cancer molecules and mRNA molecules. In the world of superconductors, it turns into these things that look like, I mean you've seen them on Twitter, they look like these kind of weird half ceramic, half metal objects. So solid state is just the form of the matter. Solid state in particular typically means a larger crystalline lattice structure, not just individual small molecules.Eric: The whole story of milestones you're talking about, what would be viable, reminds me of the SpaceX experience. Where a few months ago one of their rockets blew up. It's so hard as a layperson, even when cheering these things on, to know as an external observer what signs show the company's on track. What was your reaction to media like The New York Times framing the SpaceX explosion super negatively?Delian: I think the layman's view, particularly The New York Times, was clueless and off base. In aerospace, it's easier to publicly verify traction, unlike software where companies just claim things. You can see did the rocket launch? Did the spacecraft enter orbit? Those are physical facts. SpaceX is developing an extremely ambitious new rocket alongside their workhorse Falcon 9 that has flown over 200 times without exploding. This new rocket is riskier but more capable. It's interesting because even though Falcon 9 lands part of itself, it still loses the top section on every flight. So travel is expensive if you had to rebuild the cockpit after every plane flight. This new rocket Elon's making aims to be fully reusable to lower costs.Because it's so ambitious, SpaceX's approach is to test and fly rapidly rather than get stuck analyzing indefinitely. Their early Falcon rockets blew up but they learned. Nobody expected this new rocket to even get off the pad, but it went way further than expected before failing around stage separation. Calling it a failure seems crazy to me given this is the most ambitious project ever. It did way better than anyone thought, proving out concepts. Failures are part of pushing forward ambitiously. The NYT calling it a Space Shuttle-type failure shows cluelessness - this explicitly developmental rocket had no people aboard. To get to safe, you have to start unsafe and prove it out over time.Eric: How much does Varda depend on SpaceX's continued success in bringing down the cost curve? Could Varda work with today's cost of satellite deployment? Or are you counting on further reductions in deployment costs?Delian: At today's launch costs, where we're spending $1.5 to $2 million per flight, that is low enough for us to build a strong business around what we're doing now. So I'd say none of our models or thinking depends on future cost drops. Obviously I'd be thrilled if something like Starship came online, though I think that'll take time. I'd be excited for more players to start landing rockets - no one has really done that yet, even though it's been eight and a half years since SpaceX's first landing. So I'm not counting on it happening soon. We've architected our business so it doesn't depend on further cost reductions.. Get full access to Newcomer at www.newcomer.co/subscribe
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