The Rules of Investing

Amazon spent over a decade as a misunderstood stock - volatile, unprofitable, and often written off. But for those who looked past the noise, it became one of the greatest investments of our time. Today, Janus Henderson sees echoes of that journey in Spotify. It may not look like a market leader yet, but under the surface, the building blocks of enduring growth are falling into place. In this episode, Josh Cummings explains how volatility creates opportunity, why time is a long-term investor's best friend, and what separates the winners from the noise. Is Spotify your second shot at an Amazon-style success?

In this special episode of The Rules of Investing, veteran stockbroker and Marcus Today founder Marcus Padley joins Livewire's James Marlay for a wide-ranging conversation on two critical themes. First, Marcus takes aim at the industry's obsession with buy-and-hold, arguing that smart market timing isn't just possible - it's essential for managing risk and avoiding underperformance. Then, he fields Livewire reader questions on everything from gold and lithium to bond yields and WiseTech. It's bold, unfiltered, and classic Marcus. _____________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

Equity markets have bounced, but Andrew Mitchell from Ophir says the road ahead is tricky. Higher bond yields and policy risks point to slower growth. In this environment, companies that can grow through the cycle will stand out. In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Mitchell shares his views on equity markets, the dominance of US megacaps, and why he remains optimistic on small and mid-caps. He also unpacks the thesis behind a mission-critical tech stock flying under the radar, one he believes has the potential to become a rare ‘Rule of 40' standout. _____________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

Australia's ETF industry is booming - up $53 billion in the past year alone - and a new player is stepping into the ring. David Tuckwell, son of ETF pioneer Graeme Tuckwell, has launched ETF Shares to challenge the giants like Vanguard and Betashares. His weapon of choice? Low fees and ultra-focused US tech exposure. One fund holds just the top 10 Nasdaq stocks - an audacious bet on concentration over diversification. Is there room for another player in an increasingly crowded market? We explore the strategy, the story, and the stakes behind ETF Shares' bold launch.   _____________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

Investors hoping for a swift ‘V-shaped' recovery from the recent market sell-off are likely to be disappointed. Instead, they face a slow, grinding path forward. That's the base case from Koda Capital's Chief Economist, Brigette Leckie, who says the tariff-led policies of Trump 2.0 represent a structural break for economies and markets.   _____________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

“Are you okay?” That was the question Emma Fisher got from her mum after the ASX plunged more than 6% in a single day. For Fisher, it was a soft signal that the worst of the panic may be behind us. In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Emma shares why sharp sell-offs are the new normal, the two market “buckets” she's buying from, and how she's funding new ideas. Last time she was on the podcast, Emma tipped ResMed at $22. This time, she's back with a fresh idea she's backing for the next 5 years. _____________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

No matter how long you've been in markets, we're all guilty, at one point or another, of operating at a headline level. When markets are moving violently - like they are now - and we're all trying to keep up, operating at a summary level can become even more pronounced. But looking beyond the headlines, challenging what you think you know, and diving deeper into complex issues, will almost certainly always yield a better result. For example, one of the dominant narratives right now is that Trump's tariffs will lead to higher inflation. Logically, it makes sense. But the reality could look quite different according to Charlie Jamieson, Co-Founder of Jamieson Coote Bonds. “Everybody just jumps to ‘tariffs mean higher prices, that means inflation'. Well, it's not quite that simple. It definitely means higher prices, but that does potentially mean demand destruction in some things. It really matters how elastic the thing that is being tariffed actually is", says Jamieson. He goes on to provide the example of a 100% tariff on a luxury handbag: “you probably won't sell too many.” Conversely, a tariff on the one little part you need for a broken-down heating or air conditioning unit: " You're probably going to pay it because you're really, really need it - it's very inelastic.” Jamieson also points out that inflation is “a continual and sustained increase in pricing”. “If prices go up 10% that's terrible, obviously demand will be affected, but if they don't change thereafter, it's not inflationary.  It just means that yes, of course it is in the very first reading of, but it's not a continued and sustained price increase”. The final piece to this puzzle is what happened last time. “As we saw in Trump 1.0, despite his tariffs at that time, inflation continually fell through that period”, notes Jamieson. “Trump's thinking is that if he can bring that budgetary deficit down considerably, it will also help take out excess demand, it'll bring more efficiency to government and in doing so, he will lower inflation”. This is just one of the many narratives that Jamieson unpacks in the following Rules of Investing podcast, which covers a lot of ground about the global economy, central bank policy, interest rates, inflation, and why investors have a great opportunity right now to rethink and reposition their portfolios. Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

At the start of 2025, there were three big-picture scenarios facing investors: a hard landing, a soft landing, or no landing at all. Just two of those scenarios remain, with a hard landing now off the table, according to Ten Cap's Jun Bei Liu. That view might seem a touch ambitious in light of the market rout that kicked off in mid-February and gathered steam as sticky inflation and a tariff war put equity valuations under pressure. The ASX 200 has fallen 8.5% in a month and is down over 4.5% for 2025. The picture is worse for US equities, where, after back-to-back years of +20% gains, the S&P 500 has shed over 10% in a month and is down over 5% from the start of the year. The headlines and moves are unnerving, but the backdrop for equities remains favourable, and the volatility is creating opportunities to buy businesses at better valuations, according to Jun Bei Liu.   Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

The allure of small-cap investing is undeniable. The chance to find an overlooked gem that can skyrocket is real, but the risks are just as high. Illiquidity, limited analyst coverage, and varying investor strategies create opportunities—but also traps. Success stories like Pro Medicus and Netwealth prove the potential, yet the volatility can be brutal. Steve Johnson, CIO at Forager Funds, knows this world well. In the latest episode of The Rules of Investing, he shares his journey from investment newsletters to funds management and reveals the small caps he's backing for future growth. Don't miss it!

From investing his paper route money in term deposits when he was nine years old, to racing the two kilometres from one end of Collins Street to the other to submit a handwritten RBA bond tender, to running a market-beating income fund for more than 20 years, Yarra Capital Management's Roy Keenan has seen it all in his 40 years in fixed income. It is this broad experience and love for fixed income that makes Keenan such an interesting person to talk to, particularly given the world as we find it today. There's a new regime taking shape in the US, the promises of which will need to be funded by new paper, locally we have state governments in trouble (none more so than Victoria, where Keenan was at the coalface last time it was broke), whilst the energy transition and other major investment themes are creating opportunities. Making sense of it all is always the key, but when you have four decades of experience you have learnt when to use your head and when to pay attention to your gut. "I think that the head tells you to put the trade on. I think the gut is the warning signal that something doesn't feel right and therefore instead of taking that trade off quickly, you might just let it run a little bit longer to see how it will play out," he says. So, which themes are dominating Keenan's head space and innards today? Be sure to listen to the podcast for insights on the world's biggest and most liquid markets, as well as some war stories from Keenan's 40 years in the market. 

Stock markets are off to a flying start for 2025. The S&P ASX 200 is up nearly 5%, with gold, banks and technology companies continuing their bull runs from 2024. The consensus view is that banks and tech are expensive, but the market doesn't seem to agree, or at least it doesn't care. Moments like this can be challenging for investors; fundamentals tell you to look the other way, but ignoring the temptation to follow the momentum is hard. In this episode of the Rules of Investing, Laretive shares some tips for keeping a cool head when markets are on fire, identifies some opportunities from the lower Aussie dollar and discusses three stocks he thinks can deliver strong results in the upcoming reporting season.   Paul Tudor Jones article Seneca's M&A list

The past few years have been kind to investors. A glance over 2024 asset class returns suggests that most Australian investors have been sitting on healthy gains for the past 12 months, with the much-loved banks leading the charge. Global equity exposure will have sweetened returns, with the S&P 500 clocking up consecutive years of +20%. Even conservative investors have been rewarded with returns on cash, which is the best we've seen in decades. It's in our nature to resist making changes to a winning formula. However, with market leadership being highly concentrated and, for the most part, coming from high-growth stocks, there's a decent chance that your portfolio has developed a few biases and overweight positions. Why does this matter? Markets have repeatedly reminded us that good times don't last. Reviewing your portfolio and making tweaks or rebalances is prudent. This ensures you harvest some of those gains and position your portfolio for all market conditions. Livewire's James Marlay spoke with Charlie Viola from Viola Private Wealth and Ben Clark from TMS Private Wealth to explore the factors they think matter for 2025, discuss how they are allocating capital for the year ahead, and to get some professional tips on rebalancing your portfolio. Putting theory into practice, he also revealed his SMSF portfolio and asked our guests to share the changes they would make. To see the charts and tables referenced in the podcast are on this link: https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/how-to-invest-1-million-in-2025 Charts Inflation Earnings Yield Aus vs US earnings Asset Allocation Tables    

If you're feeling upbeat about markets as we head into 2025, you're not alone. 41% of investors that participated in Livewire's Outlook Series Survey said they are feeling optimistic about markets right now, well ahead of the following most popular response with 30% of survey participants saying they are feeling anxious. The responses are not surprising, given the decisive run in equity markets in recent years. The S&P 500 is on the cusp of racking up consecutive years of 20%+ returns. A feat only achieved four times since 1926.  The other instances occurred in 1927-1928 before the great depression, in 1942-1943 during World War II, from 1995-1999 there were unprecedented gains with five 20%+ years and more recently in 2017-2018. Investors are likely feeling optimistic given the strong returns on offer, whilst it is natural that anxiety is growing and a recognition that the good times won't last forever.  Unfortunately, history provides little solace for those investors looking to the past in the hope that it might give some clues as to what 2025 might hold. The returns in the years following the four historical precedents are ambiguous, with a 50/50 split between negative and positive returns. However, the drawdown years were smaller than when markets continued to rally.  So, how does this information help us, and what should investors think about as we head into 2025? To answer this question, we drew on the expertise of top-rated financial adviser Paul Burgon, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner at Lipman Burgon and Partners. Paul has decades of experience allocating capital on behalf of his clients and was ranked #6 in 2024 on Barron's list of top financial advisers. Even with his experience, Paul acknowledges that predicting the future is fraught with danger and a recipe for disappointment. However, over his career, he has developed a set of ten principles that he believes can underwrite investment success.  These principles draw on the renowned endowment model of investing developed by David Swenson and are now widely adopted by many leading investment institutions, including Australia's Future Fund.  Yale's endowment fund returns under Swenson are compelling, having delivered annual returns of 14% over 35 years.  Summarising the underlying objective of Burgon's philosophy is relatively simple. He is seeking to remove or dampen the influence of emotions on investment decisions. In 2024, access to extensive research, institutional-grade investment models and improved access to private markets make it possible to achieve more consistent returns, reducing the prospect of poor decision-making at times of peak emotion.  While few of us will be seeking to replicate the allocation of global endowment funds, I'm sure most of us would like to bank the healthy returns of recent years and dampen the impact of any impending market dislocations.  “If you can have more reliability of outcomes in your equity allocation and more consistency of returns that is a much better way to allocate capital than trying to chase the next high-performing manager.” In the final episode of The Rules of Investing, we hope to leave you with valuable asset allocation and portfolio construction insights from one of Australia's top financial advisers. And while we'd all love to see another 20% + year from the S&P 500, it makes sense to ensure your portfolio can withstand the chance that 2025 could be a down year. Better to be safe than sorry!

The Australian property market is incredibly nuanced. Markets like Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth are soaring by double digits while the markets of Sydney and Melbourne have started to cool considerably. But even if prices in the largest housing markets are mellowing, it does not take away the core and indisputable argument: Housing may never have been affordable but now, the crisis is worse than ever. Andrew Schwartz, Co-Founder, CIO, and Managing Director at alternative real estate investment manager Qualitas, doesn't see this structural situation changing any time soon. When he is asked to reflect on the last 12 months in the property market, he effectively described 2024 as one of the less memorable periods of recent years. "I think it'll go down as one of the less exciting years that we're going to think about when we reflect on the years that have gone by," Schwartz reflects.  "As we're approaching the end of 2024, it's quite clear that markets are starting to slow down and a lot of that momentum is coming out of the market." But he does see next year becoming far more "interesting", "fascinating", and even a "thriller" for investors in this asset class. "I think it's getting very exciting in 2025. There are many reasons why I feel that but in particular, residential property is affected by supply and demand and interest rates. When you look at each of those individual factors, you do see a market where Australia is caught short on the supply side at the moment and it's been very hard to get supply into the market. We have quite significant demand coming in and we have had a sustained period of relatively high interest rates," Schwartz says. Schwartz's comments here on this asset class really matter. Qualitas, the company he co-founded, has nearly $9 billion in funds under management today, mainly from overseas and domestic institutional investors who want to access the lucky country's most famous asset. An asset that, Schwartz argues, is a better store of value than stocks, crypto, and even gold. On this week's edition of The Rules of Investing, Schwartz is sitting down with guest presenter Hans Lee to discuss his views on these key tailwinds, his take on the macro environment, and where he sees growth opportunities in the Australian property market today.  (APPLE PODCASTS) (SPOTIFY) (PODBEAN) other key insights you can expect Forget stocks, crypto, and gold: Residential property may be the best store of value out there "I actually think that residential property is one of the best stores of value you can consider ... that is my personal opinion." "A beautiful store of value is buying land and you know we are going to be more and more densified over time. Personally, I find it hard to move away [from property] but that is how I think about residential property as a store of value." It's not about whether house prices rise, it's just about whether house prices will fall "One of the key measures for us is around the margin the developer is earning on the project. I don't think about the margin as a developer making money per se. I think about margin as safety for error. How much could we afford for prices to wind back?" Is the answer to unlocking housing supply just to "drop rates to zero"? "There is no doubt that if you want to stimulate the next round of the housing market, it's about dropping interest rates. The cost of capital is such a big factor in delivering projects." "However, the problem with dropping interest rates to that level is that one of the measures the RBA is very focussed on is the wealth effect of housing. The more people's houses are worth, the more they feel wealthy, and the more they go out and consume." How much will it cost for Australia to build 240,000 homes a year? "Construction costs have risen some 40% over the last three years in Australia. As a generalisation, housing prices and apartment prices, in particular, have not gone up by 40%." "Groups like ours see a lot very large volume of project feasibility where developers would like to get their projects financed."

Koda Capital is one of Australia's elite wealth management firms, charged with allocating over $11.5 billion of capital on behalf of high-net-worth individuals, family offices, and charitable foundations. For the past decade, Brigette Leckie has played a pivotal role in shaping the firm's views on where the best opportunities lie across global asset markets. Leckie firmly believes that understanding the macro environment is the starting point for building an investment strategy. And while it's not every day that investors like you and me get to pick the brains of an asset allocator with Brigette's experience. In this episode of the Rules of Investing, you'll get a front-row seat and learn how Brigette makes sense of the dynamics in global economies and what that means for investors. With a new regime set to take office in the world's largest economy and Australia's largest trading partner, China, amid a generational economic transition, the macro environment requires careful consideration for investors. Around the world with Brigette Leckie Fresh off the back of visits to Europe and the United States, Brigette made these observations. Europe: Better than the headlines and muddling through 'muddle through' Traffic is everywhere (yes, worse than Sydney) A change in attitudes towards experiences over spending on goods persists. Restaurants and streets are buzzing, and with the exception of Germany, economies will continue to muddle along Manufacturing in Germany remains sluggish United States: The gap is widening Inflation is real. Flights are at capacity, it's hard to get an Uber, and the streets are buzzing in many cities. The gap between the haves and the have-nots is widening. Politics remains highly divisive for families and corporations. "I did see divisiveness in a couple of things I did see on the corporate side. So, for example, getting into a car and asking the driver what his views on the election were, and he said, "Company policy is we don't talk about the election or politics." So that surprised me," said Leckie. China: Three significant issues to deal with Leckie says that China has been letting market forces deal with three major issues in its economy, and she expects these will take some time to resolve. Deflation: This remains an issue caused by excess capacity in the economy. Weak consumer: Consumer sentiment is fragile, creating a downward deflation spiral. Excesses of the property market: This is a well-documented issue that will take time to work through. Historically, China's policy has been boom or bust. Leckie believes that a mindset shift has taken place, and the old approach is being replaced by genuine reform. The goal is to gradually turn China into a more consumer-based economy. A stronger China is good for global economies, especially Australia; however, we should not expect the boom days of the past to return. So does macro matter? Leckie emphatically believes that understanding macroeconomics is the foundation of good investment strategy and asset allocation. She cites the example of interest rates near zero or negative as a point in time when the macroeconomics was 'out of whack' and providing a clear signal. Developed market bonds were 'uninvestable' in her eyes—a call that has been vindicated in recent years. Currency markets can also provide a signal. Most of the time, currencies trade in a narrow range, but there are times when they get to extremes. For example, the Australian dollar was worth less than US50 cents, and equally, it traded at parity. For globally diversified portfolios, these extreme moments matter. Three points for asset allocation right now Leckie says returns in recent years have been exceptional, and investors should be mindful not to extrapolate these into the future. Knowing what risk you will tolerate is easy to underestimate when markets are ripping higher. Leckie had these key messages for investors. Hold your conviction on big calls. If you have a strong foundation for your positions, you need to be willing to ride out short-term noise. Investors are too bullish on risk assets and should be cautious about expecting these returns to continue Diversification will be crucial over the period ahead. Investors must ensure their portfolios are properly diversified with uncorrelated investments.

For those who love equities, you're in for a treat with the latest Rules of Investing podcast. This week's episode features First Sentier Investors' Deputy Head of Australian Equities Growth, David Wilson. Wilson's bread and butter is picking high-quality growth companies - a role he executes every day as part of the team that runs the First Sentier Geared Australian Share Fund. He is not afraid to explain how he goes about doing this while acknowledging his missteps and sharing a handful of stocks he likes right now. When it comes to his process for picking stocks, Wilson says it's all “pretty logical”. “We just try to invest in good businesses with management that are trying to do the right thing for you and with the right sort of balance sheet. It's pretty straightforward. You can overcomplicate these things, but generally, that's our approach”, says Wilson. Wilson adds that the team watches company management very closely:  “What they're trying to achieve, what their goals are, but also at their actions, particularly when they make an acquisition or divestment - that's a point where you get a real insight into how a company is thinking," says Wilson. Wilson points to Car Group (ASX: CAR) as a company with a solid acquisition history. The company is a recent addition to the portfolio, though Wilson acknowledges that he was a bit late to the party. Another stock he particularly likes right now is pallet-maker and logistics company Brambles (ASX: BXB), saying that “the new management team has brought in a real pricing discipline over the last five years”, which has allowed them to cement a dominant position as a global leader. In the following episode, Wilson also discusses the Fund's current overweights in tech and healthcare and names one stock from each sector that stands out (one of which is also the stock he would own if the market closed for five years). In terms of what Wilson doesn't like right now, he talks about the shrinking position of consumer staples and explains why they haven't been “quite so staple” over the past year. He also talks to sector underweights in energy, financials and materials – despite being overweight BHP Group (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO). For good measure, he also shares his thoughts on Rio's takeover of Arcadium Lithium. Finally, in explaining how valuations matter, Wilson shares why he is underweight Cochlear (ASX: COH), despite it being a great business. Listen to the podcast to learn what keeps Wilson motivated after 40 years in markets, how he sees the current market conditions, and learn a little more about his process for picking stocks. For good measure, he'll even share with you which financial metric is a waste of time!   Note: This interview was recorded on Tuesday22 October 2024. 

In a world where artificial intelligence dominates headlines, few fund managers have harnessed it as boldly as Armina Rosenberg. For those who don't know her, "Arms" made a name for herself at Grok Ventures, the family office of Mike Cannon-Brookes. Now, she's paving a new path at AI-backed Minotaur Capital, alongside Perpetual alumnus Thomas Rice. The duo have developed Taurient, a software system that uses large language models for everything from idea generation to portfolio construction. In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Arms outlines how you can use AI to level up your own investment strategy, as well as a few stock ideas to get you started.  Note: This interview was recorded on Wednesday 9 October 2024.  Timecodes 0:00 - Intro  2:13 - Lessons learnt from managing the wealth of Australia's mega-rich  7:32 - Family involvement in investment in family offices  8:56 - Differences between how retail investors and mega-wealthy invest  10:01 - What makes Minotaur Capital different from its peers 13:23 - How Arms and Thomas met  15:26 - How Minotaur's AI system Taurient works  25:21 - Mix of fundamental investing and AI  26:30 - Can AI help to know when to sell a stock?  27:37 - Can investors develop an AI-backed system themselves?  29:04 - How investors can use ChatGPT to make smarter investing decisions  31:21 - The future of funds management in an AI world  34:32 - Where the team sees opportunity today i.e. exciting themes 37:13 - Energy companies making waves on the global stage  39:10 - AI winners - why Minotaur is backing smaller players over the behemoths  39:55 - Healthcare ideas - and an emerging oral GLP-1 winner in Japan  41:25 - Why Japan is a "once in a generation opportunity" 42:53 - An example of a company Minotaur is shorting  45:18 - What the market is getting wrong today - private credit  47:36 - Stories of wins and losses and lessons from these  51:51 - Two stocks for the next five years (if the market were to close in that time)

Today, we'll be bringing all the insights from Livewire Live together with the help of one of Australia's leading financial advisers and one of the country's top wealth managers. Livewire's James Marlay sat down with Alexandre Ventelon of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management and Charlie Viola of Pitcher Partners to answer our audience's questions about asset allocation and give investors some tangible ideas on how to apply the lessons and insights from a full day of sessions covering multiple asset classes, themes and ideas.  This episode is part of our special mini-series of The Rules of Investing, giving you a front-row seat to discussions from Livewire Live 2024, our flagship investor event. Whether you're after big-picture market insights or actionable investment strategies, this series offers exclusive insights to help shape your investment decisions. We hope you enjoy this special 7-part series. We'll return to our regular programming with the next episode of The Rules of Investing. ________________ This series is proudly sponsored by Bell Direct Advantage. Bell Direct Advantage is a premium trading platform designed for active and sophisticated investors. Offering access to Bell Potter research, exclusive IPOs, and advanced trading tools, it's built to give you a competitive edge. Whether you're a frequent trader or a high-net-worth individual trading shares, options, or warrants, Bell Direct Advantage delivers tailored solutions and superior service to sharpen your investing edge. [Find out more here]

Today, you'll be learning about the good, the bad and the ugly of equities markets - with the help of: Dr David Allen, Head of Long/Short Strategies, Plato Investment Management Ben Griffiths, Executive Chairman, Eley Griffiths Group James Hawkins, Partner & Head of the Catalyst Fund, L1 Capital Dushko Bajic, Head of Australian Equities Growth, First Sentier Investors This panel is hosted by Centennial Asset Management's Matthew Kidman. They explore the stocks they are bullish on today, the themes they believe are likely to suffer, and the stocks they recommend investors avoid (or short, if they can) over the months ahead.    This episode is part of our special mini-series of The Rules of Investing, giving you a front-row seat to discussions from Livewire Live 2024, our flagship investor event. Whether you're after big-picture market insights or actionable investment strategies, this series offers exclusive insights to help shape your investment decisions. We hope you enjoy this special 7-part series. We'll return to our regular programming with the next episode of The Rules of Investing. ________________ This series is proudly sponsored by Bell Direct Advantage. Bell Direct Advantage is a premium trading platform designed for active and sophisticated investors. Offering access to Bell Potter research, exclusive IPOs, and advanced trading tools, it's built to give you a competitive edge. Whether you're a frequent trader or a high-net-worth individual trading shares, options, or warrants, Bell Direct Advantage delivers tailored solutions and superior service to sharpen your investing edge. [Find out more here]

Many of the best investing opportunities emerge when you think differently from the herd. This session will feature five high energy predictions that will challenge consensus thinking as inves­tors look towards 2025 and beyond. You'll be hearing from five of Australia's leading investment minds, including: Kellie Wood, Head of Fixed Income at Schroders  Vihari Ross, Portfolio Manager at Antipodes, Bob Desmond, Co-Portfolio Manager and Head of Claremont Global Josh Clark, Lead Portfolio Manager at QVG Capital Matthew Kidman, Chief Investment Officer at Centennial Asset Management.  This episode is part of our special mini-series of The Rules of Investing, giving you a front-row seat to discussions from Livewire Live 2024, our flagship investor event. Whether you're after big-picture market insights or actionable investment strategies, this series offers exclusive insights to help shape your investment decisions. We hope you enjoy this special 7-part series. We'll return to our regular programming with the next episode of The Rules of Investing. ________________ This series is proudly sponsored by Bell Direct Advantage. Bell Direct Advantage is a premium trading platform designed for active and sophisticated investors. Offering access to Bell Potter research, exclusive IPOs, and advanced trading tools, it's built to give you a competitive edge. Whether you're a frequent trader or a high-net-worth individual trading shares, options, or warrants, Bell Direct Advantage delivers tailored solutions and superior service to sharpen your investing edge. [Find out more here]

In this session you'll be hearing a fireside chat with Todd Barlow the CEO of Soul Patts, Australia's oldest listed company. Soul Patts is a diversified investment house often described as Australia's answer to Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway. The company has established an incredible record of dividend payments to shareholders and today you'll be getting an asset allocation masterclass from Todd and hearing about the opportunities he sees in the market today. This session was moderated by James Unger, Head of Corporate Finance and Bell Potter Securities. This episode is part of our special mini-series of The Rules of Investing, giving you a front-row seat to discussions from Livewire Live 2024, our flagship investor event. Whether you're after big-picture market insights or actionable investment strategies, this series offers exclusive insights to help shape your investment decisions. We hope you enjoy this special 7-part series. We'll return to our regular programming with the next episode of The Rules of Investing. ________________ This series is proudly sponsored by Bell Direct Advantage. Bell Direct Advantage is a premium trading platform designed for active and sophisticated investors. Offering access to Bell Potter research, exclusive IPOs, and advanced trading tools, it's built to give you a competitive edge. Whether you're a frequent trader or a high-net-worth individual trading shares, options, or warrants, Bell Direct Advantage delivers tailored solutions and superior service to sharpen your investing edge. [Find out more here]

Artificial Intelligence is surely the hottest topic right now powering returns in stock markets and capturing our attention with its promise of productivity and innovation. But with such spectacular interest and returns I'm sure many investors are wondering if the opportunity has passed.  Our next panel will be picking the eyes out of the AI opportunity. How big is it and where are we in the cycle for this industry? Who will be the winners? And who will get crushed? The panel features: Nick Griffin, Founding Partner & Chief Investment Officer, Munro Partners Jun Bei Liu, Lead Portfolio Manager, Tribeca Investment Partners Jacob Mitchell, Chief Investment Officer & Lead Portfolio Manager, Antipodes This session was moderated by Livewire's Deputy Managing Editor Ally Selby.  This episode is part of our special mini-series of The Rules of Investing, giving you a front-row seat to discussions from Livewire Live 2024, our flagship investor event. Whether you're after big-picture market insights or actionable investment strategies, this series offers exclusive insights to help shape your investment decisions. We hope you enjoy this special 7-part series. We'll return to our regular programming with the next episode of The Rules of Investing. ________________ This series is proudly sponsored by Bell Direct Advantage. Bell Direct Advantage is a premium trading platform designed for active and sophisticated investors. Offering access to Bell Potter research, exclusive IPOs, and advanced trading tools, it's built to give you a competitive edge. Whether you're a frequent trader or a high-net-worth individual trading shares, options, or warrants, Bell Direct Advantage delivers tailored solutions and superior service to sharpen your investing edge. [Find out more here]

In this episode, you'll be hearing a panel exploring a number of big topics dominating conversations around markets right now. From the changing macro backdrop and debate over the merits of public vs private markets to the implications of ageing populations, the energy transition and digital innovation these are Seismic Shifts and we're going to hear about the opportunities they present for investors. The speakers in this session are: Matthew Haup, Lead Portfolio Manager at Wilson Asset Management Srdjan Dangubic, Partner at Five V Capital James Abela, Portfolio Manager at Fidelity Andrew Lockhart, Managing Partner at Metrics Credit Partners You moderator is Livewire's managing editor Chris Conway This episode is part of our special mini-series of The Rules of Investing, giving you a front-row seat to discussions from Livewire Live 2024, our flagship investor event. Whether you're after big-picture market insights or actionable investment strategies, this series offers exclusive insights to help shape your investment decisions. We hope you enjoy this special 7-part series. We'll return to our regular programming with the next episode of The Rules of Investing. ________________ This series is proudly sponsored by Bell Direct Advantage. Bell Direct Advantage is a premium trading platform designed for active and sophisticated investors. Offering access to Bell Potter research, exclusive IPOs, and advanced trading tools, it's built to give you a competitive edge. Whether you're a frequent trader or a high-net-worth individual trading shares, options, or warrants, Bell Direct Advantage delivers tailored solutions and superior service to sharpen your investing edge. [Find out more here]

In this episode, you'll hear from Scott Kleinman, the co-president of Apollo Global Management, as he sits down with Livewire's James Marlay. Kleinman shares his views on why he believes markets are getting ahead of themselves with rate cut expectations, where he sees value across various sectors, and how Apollo is positioning to take advantage of mega trends such as digital transformation, the energy transition, and ageing populations. This episode is part of our special mini-series of The Rules of Investing, giving you a front-row seat to discussions from Livewire Live 2024, our flagship investor event. Whether you're after big-picture market insights or actionable investment strategies, this series offers exclusive insights to help shape your investment decisions. We hope you enjoy this special 7-part series. We'll return to our regular programming with the next episode of The Rules of Investing. ________________ This series is proudly sponsored by Bell Direct Advantage. Bell Direct Advantage is a premium trading platform designed for active and sophisticated investors. Offering access to Bell Potter research, exclusive IPOs, and advanced trading tools, it's built to give you a competitive edge. Whether you're a frequent trader or a high-net-worth individual trading shares, options, or warrants, Bell Direct Advantage delivers tailored solutions and superior service to sharpen your investing edge. [Find out more here]

In this special mini-series of The Rules of Investing, we're taking you inside the auditorium at Livewire Live 2024, our flagship investor event. Whether you're after big-picture market insights or actionable investment strategies, this series offers you a front-row seat to the most valuable discussions from the event. If you're keen to hear from some of Australia's top investors, these episodes will provide exclusive insights that can help shape your investment strategy for the year ahead. We hope you enjoy this bonus 7-part series. We'll be back to our regular programming after this, with the next episode of The Rules of Investing. ................. This series is proudly sponsored by Bell Direct Advantage. Bell Direct Advantage is a premium trading platform designed for active and sophisticated investors. Offering access to Bell Potter research, exclusive IPOs, and advanced trading tools, it's built to give you a competitive edge. Whether you're a frequent trader or a high-net-worth individual trading shares, options, or warrants, Bell Direct Advantage delivers tailored solutions and superior service to sharpen your investing edge. [Find out more here]

Behavioural economics explains why we make such stupid decisions with our money. Unfortunately, the study has found that behavioural biases are very hard to control and, even if you are aware of them, no one is immune from poor decision-making when it comes to both life and our finances.  This is where quantitative or systematic investing comes in - a realm of investing typically reserved for institutional investors like super funds and the ultra-wealthy.  Quantitative investing removes emotion and behavioural biases from investing. Instead, it relies on some of the smartest people in the world to put together hundreds to thousands of signals and data points for a large language model to make decisions. Humans are involved but just for oversight, in case the model does not truly understand a situation. For example, it may not understand that airlines were not a fantastic short-term opportunity amid a significant sell-off during the COVID-19 crash.  This is a far cry from fundamental investing, which relies on a fund manager or investor analysing macroeconomic and stock-specific factors, meeting with management teams, trying out products and services and reviewing a business's balance sheet before making an investment decision of their own.  The gains from quantitative strategies are typically small, but they're consistent over time. You are not going to have years of 10-20% plus outperformance over an index, but equally, you shouldn't experience huge drawdowns either. And over the long term, this small amount of alpha adds up.   Interestingly, Macquarie Asset Management was one of the few firms that saw its funds achieve 100 batting averages - for both the large-cap and small-cap categories - over a 10-year period. This means that these funds, which are all quantitative strategies*, have outperformed the benchmark 100% of the time in every three-year rolling period over the past decade.  So, to learn more about quantitative investing, quantitative ETFs and the major trends shaping ETF markets, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Blair Hannon, ETF Strategist at Macquarie Asset Management.  We discuss some common misconceptions surrounding quantitative investing, the signals that have worked over the last few years, and the magic of compounding over the long term.  Plus, Hannon also shares why he strongly believes that passive investing is not creating a bubble in markets - despite what some of the world's most famous investors (like The Big Short's Michael Burry) would have you think.  Note: This interview was recorded on Tuesday 24 September 2024.  Timecodes  0:00 - Intro  1:54 - Difference between fundamental and quantitative investing  5:28 - Removing the emotion from investing  6:55 - Signals that are used to avoid behavioural biases  8:56 - Do we need human touch on quant funds 10:31 - Common misconceptions of quant investing  14:44 - The signal that has been working over the last year  18:20 - Turnover of stocks in the portfolio 20:10 - The signal that has worked over the long term  21:32 - Why 1% alpha is attractive over the long term  24:38 - Macquarie's batting average scores over 10 and 5 years  27:37 - Why ETF popularity will continue to soar  29:57 - Why active fund managers need to innovate on ETFs 32:50 - Innovation in the US - and what we can expect in Australia  35:08 - Why ETFs aren't the death of managed funds  37:10 - Why passive investment isn't creating a bubble in markets 39:07 - Something that worries Blair about the direction of ETF markets  41:21 - One ETF to hold for the next 5 years if markets were to close Disclaimer:  Product Disclosure Statements and Target Market Determinations for Macquarie ETFs can be found at etf.macquarie.com and should be read before making a decision to invest.  *The Macquarie Australian Shares Fund, Macquarie Australian Equities Fund and the Macquarie Australian Small Companies Fund's investment strategies changed effective 18 December 2017. Until 17 December 2017, the strategies were managed with a fundamental approach. From 18 December 2017, the strategies were restructured such that they are managed with a quantitative, systematic investment approach.

While Warren Buffett's favourite holding time may be forever, the average holding period for a typical investor is now just 5.5 months. In a world where news, analysis and investment ideas are readily available at our fingertips, investors have quickly forgotten the benefits of long-term compounding and instead are focused on the next great stock, driven likely by their fear of missing out.   We've all succumbed to it, there's no point denying it. How many of us jumped on the buy-now-pay-later trend, the lithium trend, the uranium trend, and now, the AI trend, as stocks soared to stratospheric heights? How many of us have attempted to hold on for dear life (HODL) as some of these companies crashed back to Earth?   So, how can you identify the companies that continue to win over the long term? And by long term, I don't mean five-plus years, but 20.   In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Janus Henderson's Josh Cummings outlines what makes a winning long-term stock - a process that has helped the team top the league tables for their consistent outperformance over the last five and 10 years - and provides a few examples.We also take a deep dive into artificial intelligence - and why Cummings believes AI will become even larger, more pervasive, and more impactful on our lives than we could ever conceive of today.   https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/the-secret-to-finding-stocks-you-can-hold-for-20-years   Timecodes 0:00 - Intro 2:16 - The secret to consistent long-term outperformance 3:30 - What the team got right and wrong over the last 12 months 4:38 - The impact of AI on mega-cap tech companies 7:19 - Is there too much "faith" in the AI theme? 9:48 - Is this the death of value investing? 11:58 - What it's like on the ground in the US right now 15:14 - Impact of cumulative inflation on businesses 18:13 - Nvidia's antitrust charges 20:42 - Factors that can help investors identify consistent winners 22:58 - Celebrity CEOs and red flags 25:20 - Should you really HODL? 26:58 - Smaller companies employing disruptive innovation 31:13 - Lessons from the team's meeting with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman 33:49 - Innovation is a scale game - why the big are only going to get bigger 35:01 - What could go wrong with AI (i.e. are we in for an iRobot scenario) 40:22 - Two things investors are getting wrong today 42:36 - Why you should invest in what you know (and trust your gut) 46:45 - One stock Josh Cummings would own if the market closed for 5 years

Nowadays, it's quite easy to get swept up in the negativity around our economic plight. Living costs are a very real concern, as are increasingly unaffordable house prices. But, as Australians, we're also quite fortunate. Our economy has enjoyed an unprecedented run of growth, we're highly educated, we're resource-rich, and we have opportunities – one of which lies in energy creation. As Darren Brown, Co-Managing Director, Renewables Australia at Octopus Investments tells it, there is “a really unique opportunity for Australia to become a superpower in renewable energy”. The conversation highlights the transformative changes in the energy sector, the strategic initiatives underway, and the opportunities for investors in the renewable energy market in Australia. Brown's unique perspective, gained from his experience in both fossil fuels and renewables, provides valuable insights into the industry's evolution and the potential for long-term growth in the renewable energy space. Note: This episode was recorded on 29 August 2024. 

In 1990, then-Treasurer Paul Keating famously said that the country's economic downturn was the “recession that Australia had to have.” Although Keating was responding to a poor GDP print and doing his best to control the narrative, at the start of the rate hiking cycle in mid-2022 most in the market spoke of an impending recession with almost as much certainty. As it stands today, said recession is yet to materialise. So, what happened? And perhaps more importantly, what does it mean for investors? In explaining why a recession hasn't occurred, Sebastian Mullins, Head of Multi-Asset, Australia at Schroders points out that both the Australian and US governments pumped money into their respective economies—something we hadn't seen in a long time. “During the GFC, you had targeted programs to bail out banks and stimulate the economy, but on average, you had a very, very loose monetary policy and very tight fiscal policy to preserve balance sheets – i.e. improve the fundamentals of both corporate and government balance sheets”, says Mullins. “This time around, it's the reverse. We're hiking rates but the government's stimulating aggressively. So that has offset quite a bit of it”, says Mullins. Regarding America, where most of the recession indicators have been flashing red, Mullins adds that the US went into the current downturn un-levered – at least compared to previous episodes. “If you think about what the pillars of the economy are, you have the consumer, you have corporates, and you have the government”, notes Mullins. The US consumer de-levered after the GFC, reducing their amount of debt to GDP, as did corporations. “You'd expect higher interest rates to crack corporates”, says Mullins, but that hasn't happened. And while the government has been hurt by higher rates due to the bigger interest payments on its debt pile, “If the two pillars of the private economy are fine and the corporates are all fine, then there's no recession”, says Mullins. Great, no recession. What about inflation? For Mullins, the inflation conversation depends on how far into the future you look. “So in the short term, inflation's definitely coming down,” says Mullins. As for the next five years and beyond, Mullins believes there are structural forces that will mean inflation could stay above the long-term targets of central banks – although that doesn't have to be a bad thing. “There are more inflationary forces in the system now than they were over the past decade” notes Mullins, adding that “things like fiscal stimulus that's here to stay”. “You're seeing more populous governments come in around the world. You're talking about the election in the US, they're both going to spend.  "It doesn't matter who wins, it just depends on who they spend on. But there's no tea party candidate or fiscal conservative”, says Mullins. Mullins points to other inflationary factors, including de-globalisation, on-shoring, and increased security spending—whether that means military, food, mineral, or cybersecurity. “So all that is to say, we're not saying we're going to 1970-style inflation, but if in the US 2% was the ceiling of inflation for the past decade, we think it's going to become a floor. So, it might be between two to three, maybe two to four [percent]”, says Mullins. So, how are you investing? A potentially higher floor for longer-term inflation seems like a small price to pay following the most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in living memory. If someone offered the current economic and investing scenario back in late 2022 and early 2023 – with equity markets near all-time highs, bonds providing a decent yield, and an absence of recession – we'd all likely take it in a heartbeat. So, as a multi-asset strategist, how is Mullins shaping portfolios in light of macro developments and a seemingly benign backdrop? Find out in this edition of The Rules of Investing, presented by James Marlay. Mullins provides a view on Australian, US, Chinese and Japanese equities, bonds, and Australian vs. US credit. Finally, he outlines the bull case moving forward as well as the biggest risk to the outlook.  Note: This episode was recorded on 27 August 2024.  https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/what-happened-to-that-recession-we-were-promised

In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Livewire's Ally Selby learns about some of the companies that meet these criteria, why Rizzo believes AI will be far more transformative than investors currently think, as well as why he believes that investors are likely to do more harm waiting for a correction in some of these tech winners than a correction itself.  Plus, he shares what he is seeing on the ground in the US right now in terms of economic weakness, the stocks he believes are worth paying up for right now, and how he takes advantage of sell-offs when he holds very little cash.  Note: This episode of The Rules of Investing was recorded on Wednesday 14 August 2024.  https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/why-ai-will-have-a-bigger-impact-on-the-world-than-the-invention-of-electricity Timecodes:  0:00 - Intro  2:10 - Making sense of the volatility in tech stocks  3:11 - This is a healthy bull market correction  4:44 - The true transformational nature of AI  8:11 - Spotting the imposters from the real AI winners 11:06 - There are risks but we are starting to see business acceleration from AI 13:27 - Should you take advantage of sell-offs in AI companies?  15:08 - What Dom is seeing on the ground in the US in terms of economic stability 17:08 - How to identify winning tech stocks  19:53 - How Dom thinks about risk  22:01 - Dom's wishlist of stocks he would own at a cheaper price  24:15 - Stocks it is worth paying up for right now  26:32 - A deep dive into semiconductor stocks and cycles  30:20 - NVIDIA at the point of deceleration and what this means for investors 31:16 - How to take advantage of sell-offs with very little cash  34:19 - One thing investors are getting wrong about markets  34:53 - Biggest lessons Dom has learnt during his career  39:06 - One stock Dom would hold if the market closed for 5 years.

Much has been made of the “Great Rotation” of late and the move away from highly concentrated large caps into small-cap equities, particularly in the US. Greg Dean, founder of Langdon Equity Partners, is having none of it. When quizzed about whether the rotation was impacting how Dean and his team invest, the short answer was ‘no'. Late last year, amid widespread commentary about 2024 being the ‘year for small caps', Langdon wrote about the time and energy people spend talking about timing in small caps and called it a “big waste of time”. Dean feels a similar way about the rotation. “The reality is if you wait for the perfect time, you've probably missed out on a lot of opportunity during that period when fewer people were interested”, says Dean. Dean founded Langdon in 2021 on the concept of a “clean sheet of paper” – i.e. not being beholden to anyone but investors. His philosophy is built on deep research and holding management to account, allowing him to ‘trust but verify'. He adds that speaking with management is a delicate balance that is often “executed poorly”. “You think you have to be aggressive and definitive or you have to be a “yes” person and agree with everything that they're telling you, and neither of those is optimal”, says Dean. In the following episode of The Rules of Investing, Dean delves deeper into small-cap investing, explains why he and his team take more than 300 individual company meetings each year, talks through the current portfolio tilt, and shares why the fund favours Europe over the US. He also upacks two global small-cap stock ideas that highlight Langdon's approach.  Note: This episode was recorded on 31 July 2024. You can watch the video or listen to the podcast below.  https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/why-trying-to-time-small-caps-is-a-big-waste-of-time-and-2-long-term-stock-ideas Timecodes 0:00 - Intro 1:36 - Investment background and founding Langdon 5:05 - Biggest influences over the journey and why small caps? 8:39 - Investment philosophy origin story 11:01 - When is enough, enough? 12:45 - The Great Rotation and current market conditions 15:31 - Company meetings how the best stand out 20:09 - Honing the craft 23:42 - Current portfolio: underweight US, overweight Europe 26:58 - Why cashflow is Landon's North Star 28:07 - Other non-negotiables 29:12 - Testing beliefs 30:40 - Navigating patience as a small-cap investor 32:57 - Small-cap stock ideas 37:52 - What are investors getting wrong about today's markets? 49:27 - Courage of conviction 41:29 - The five-year stock  

In tennis, just as in investing, it's the points that you win that matter. After all, Roger Federer played 1,526 singles matches throughout his career, and while he only won 54% of the individual points within those matches, he walked away with the win 80% of the time. Ausbil Investment Management's fresh-faced co-head of emerging companies, and portfolio manager for its small and micro-cap strategies, Arden Jennings, is focusing on just that. "Stocks are just points. But it's the points that matter that win you the game. So for us, our largest detractor was still smaller than our 17th biggest winner. Even though we had an even spread of winners and losers, it was the ones that were successful that made it a good year," he says. And a good year it was. The Ausbil MicroCap Fund returned 33.53% in FY24, while its Australian Small Cap Fund delivered investors a nice 25.73%. Since inception, these funds have returned 20.08% (since February 2010) and 24.17% (since April 2020), respectively. So, where is the Roger Federer of Australian small caps seeing the most opportunity today? You'll find out in this episode of The Rules of Investing. Note: This episode was recorded on 30 July 2024. You can watch the video or listen to the podcast below.  https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/where-the-roger-federer-of-australian-small-caps-sees-the-most-opportunity-today Timecodes: 0:00 - Intro 2:36 - Decisions that lead to outperformance in FY24 5:04 - Roger Federer's streak and lessons for investing 6:13 - Interest rate expectations 7:00 - Why the small-cap rebound can continue and the Great Rotation in Australia 8:03 - The stocks that will benefit - HUB24 (ASX: HUB), Zip Co (ASX: Z1P), Credit Corp (ASX: CCP) 9:24 - Wildcards that could impact investors' portfolios 11:41 - What to expect this reporting season 12:29 - Why investors should be wary of crowded trades 13:24 - A stock to watch this reporting season: Aussie Broadband (ASX: ABB) 14:15 - One thing the market is getting wrong right now 16:24 - A story of a big win or loss from Arden's investing journey 17:27 - Stories from childhood - investing at 10 years old 18:01 - One stock to hold if the market were to close for the next 5 years... you'll have to listen to the interview for that one!

There's no supply in residential housing nor the majority of segments of the commercial real estate market. Sky-high construction costs are now too prohibitive. Bandaid solutions, like rent control, only backfire. And inconsistent state, federal and local policies are not helping either. That's according to this week's guest on The Rules of Investing, Andrew Parsons, a founder and the chief investment officer of global listed real estate manager Resolution Capital. While these factors continue to perpetuate Australia's housing problem, they are actually positive for long-term investors in real estate.  In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Parsons dives into Australia's property problem, outlines what he believes to be the solution, and shares why listed property is in for a strong three to five years ahead of us.  Note: This episode of the Rules of Investing was recorded on Wednesday 17 July 2024.  https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/30-year-property-veteran-australia-has-its-head-in-the-sand-on-housing    Timecodes 0:00 – Introduction 2:06 – A fascinating, under-appreciated part of the market 3:45 – What is a REIT? 5:30 – The key distinctions between REITs and physical property assets 8:45 – Which do you prefer: an investment property or listed property assets? 9:50 – Where REITs sit alongside equities and fixed income 10:55 – What you're really paying for when you buy real estate 12:50 – Why property development is so difficult currently 13:40 – Australia's troubling property supply shortfall 15:04 – “We don't want urban sprawl” 16:30 – How do you solve Australia's big property problem? 20:50 – The effect of interest rates on listed property, versus equities and bonds 23:40 – How Resolution Capital is currently positioned 33:50 – What is your best investment of all time? 38:08 – Resolution Capital's five-year pick    

Investors are too focused on interest rates and are subsequently underweight risk assets. That's the, albeit US-centric, view from Global X ETFs' Head of Investment Strategy, Scott Helfstein. He elaborates by saying that the US economy is looking a lot more like mid-cycle expansion than late cycle and that “you don't want to be sitting on the sidelines”. A fan of thematic investing, Helfstein goes on to highlight three big investment themes that he likes right now, including one offering the opportunity for true transformation, that's available for the same price as the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest Rules of Investing Podcast. https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/3-compelling-long-term-etf-ideas-for-investors-still-on-the-sidelines    Timecodes 0:00 - Intro 1:12 - A unique background for an investment professional 7:17 - The current state of geopolitics 12:00 - Australia's position in the global landscape 14:10 - The appeal of thematic investing 16:42 - Where is the puck going? 22:53 - Sectors versus themes 26:48 - The role of thematic investing in a portfolio 28:46 - Nothing but ETFs? 30:27 - Ranking the big themes 34:22 - A theme that is flying under the radar 36:40 - Risks in thematic investing 38:32 - Mama's favourite son 39:49 - What are investors getting wrong? 41:07 - One theme for the next five years

Fully franked dividends are a prized asset of the Australian market. While the lack of growth is often lamented, plenty of self-funded retirees are content to dine on the distributions of Australia's big miners and banks.  And who can blame them - high commodity prices, particularly in iron ore and lithium, resulted in record dividends from the top end of town. However, after peaking in 2021 and 2022, dividends from mining companies are steadily declining. Research from Commsec published late in 2023 showed that the 12-month forward dividend yield for the ASX200 has been below the long-run average of 4.7%, and dividend per share estimates have been cut by 14 per cent.  The good news is that Australian banks have been increasing their dividends whilst also enjoying surging share prices. There is also a long list of consistent dividend paying stocks that often fly under the radar. In this episode of the Rules of Investing, Livewire's James Marlay speaks with Plato Investment Management's Dr Don Hamson to get his diagnosis on the case of the 'disappearing dividends'. Hamson insists that diversification remains a free lunch for investors, especially for those seeking stable and consistent returns. He also emphasizes that fully franked dividends continue to stack up as the backbone of an income-generating portfolio. Timecodes: 0:00 - Introduction 1:43 - The outlook for dividends 8:27 - Dividends versus Fixed Income 10:25 - Dwindling dividends 13:08 - The dividend outlook for mining shares 17:00 - Tactics to combat declining dividends 20:07 - Australian banks - stable but expensive 22:10 - The case for diversification 25:15 - Winning by avoiding the losers 28:09 - What returns are realistic for Plato? 31:26 - A lesson from Medibank Private 34:10 - Don't focus on the US election 36:23 - The stock most likely to be a 5-year resident in the Plato Australian Shares Income Fund

This time last year, PIMCO Portfolio Manager Adam Bowe told Livewire that there was a 50/50 chance that Australia would slip into recession. March GDP figures show that the economy grew at just 0.1 per cent, the slowest rate since December 2020. Today, Bowe says interest rates are sufficiently restrictive, and the chance of recession remains a ‘line ball'.  In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Bowe explains why interest rates in Australia don't need to go higher, why house prices have been immune to interest rate increases and where he is finding the best income opportunities right now.    

While "survival of the fittest" certainly applies to the Earth's abundance of flora and fauna, it may be time for investors to take a page out of Darwin's book.   That's according to FNArena's Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, who believes the market has irreversibly changed since 2014 - as has the way investors should value stocks.   In this episode, Rudi outlines why he believes technological innovation will transform the market as we know it. He also discusses some of his favourite ASX-listed stocks to play the AI theme, the importance of quality companies in today's markets, and what it takes for a company to be an all-weather stock.   Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 29 May 2024. Note #2: Ally was today years old when she learnt what R.E.M. is, she apologises for any harm her ignorance may have caused hardcore fans. If it's any excuse, the song was released seven years before she was born.    https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/rudi-ai-is-the-end-of-investing-as-we-know-it   

Hello and welcome to the Rules of Investing, brought to you by Livewire Markets. This week's guest is on a mission to truly surprise our listeners. He believes investors are underappreciating the real impact of artificial intelligence on markets and how we value stocks. In fact, he believes it's the end of the world as we know it.  I'm talking of course, of FNArena's Rudi Filapek Vandyck.  Here's a sneak peek of what you can expect….

There seems to be no stopping Australia's ultra-wealthy, with the number of billionaires down under growing by 14.4% over the past 12 months, to a record 159 people. For some context, in 2020, this number was 117, according to The Australian.  While it's wonderful to daydream about what you would buy or do with a few billion dollars, the true secret success of the ultra-wealthy is their ability to stay that way. After all, how many stories have you read of lottery winners squandering their newfound wealth just a few short years later?  So, how do the other half continue to grow their wealth?  To find out, Livewire sat down with MRB House's Peter Magee and Walsh Capital's Louise Walsh for their insights into how Australia's ultra-wealthy invest as part of Livewire's Undiscovered Funds Series.  They share their tips and tricks for identifying "exceptional" funds, outline the factors that are important to their processes, share what to do when a fund isn't performing as expected, and name one recently launched fund that has impressed in recent years.  Note: This interview was recorded on Wednesday 15 May 2024.  https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/the-investment-secrets-of-australia-s-billionaires 

In investing, just as in love, trust is everything - and without it, you really don't have anything at all.  It's for this reason that the Wilson Asset Management global equities team meets with more than 700 management teams across the world each year - including in the US, Japan, and Europe. In addition, they also meet with competitors and suppliers, as well as talk to current and past employees and industry experts.  According to WAM Global (ASX: WGB) lead portfolio manager Catriona Burns, the team does this because trust in a company's management team is paramount.  "Have they hit their targets? Have they done what they said? If we have any doubts on that trust factor, for us, that's completely a non-negotiable and we won't invest," she says.  Burns is reading between the lines, and looking beneath the surface for red flags. And while management teams selling stock, poor track records and value-destructive deals can certainly be warning signs, she argues that alignment - and the lack thereof - can often be far more telling for the future direction of a company's share price.  "Incentives drive outcomes... I can't tell you how many times I have seen incentives for management based on earnings per share growth," she says.   "Companies just chase acquisitions to meet earnings growth without thinking about the returns that are being generated on the dollars spent. That happens time and time again and is a massive red flag."  In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Burns takes listeners through some of the companies that have managed to pass her filters, as well as why catalysts are so important for investors with a penchant for value.  She also outlines why the listed investment company's growing annual yields won't be slowing over the next five years, what it's actually like on the ground in the US right now, as well as what the US election at the end of the year could mean for markets.  Note: This interview was recorded on Tuesday 14 May 2024.  https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/700-meetings-each-year-how-wam-global-uncovers-under-the-radar-stocks 

Time flies when you're having fun! While the last five years have had plenty of ups and downs, they haven't dented the enthusiasm and passion of small-cap fund manager Chris Stott from 1851 Capital. Stott launched 1851 Capital in 2020, just before COVID-19 hit, wreaking havoc on the market and his portfolio. Since then, Stott has comfortably beaten his small-cap benchmark, growing the fund's initial capital of $80 million to almost $500 million through a combination of inflows and capital growth. Whilst there was some exuberance after the initial shock of the pandemic, the past few years have been far more challenging for small-caps investors. “Over the past four and half years, the small-cap index has returned 3% per annum. If you look at the 30 years before we launched the fund, it was 10% per annum. So quite a significant underperformance, quite dismal in fact,” Stott says.  However, late October 2023 marked a turning point and the small-cap index has recently entered a technical bull market, having rallied more than 20%.  So where to from here and which companies does Stott believe can sustain the early track record that 1851 Capital has established? In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Stott shares his lessons from starting a new fund, why he believes the bull run in small caps can continue and five of the stocks he is backing to deliver market-beating returns. For those of you with a good memory, Stott was last on the podcast in June 2020, when he tipped NextDC (ASX: NXT) as the one stock he would hold if markets were to close for the next five years. Shares in NextDC have gained more than 75% over that time, and the company is now in the ASX100, forcing Stott to exit his position. Naturally, we've asked him for a fresh idea. Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 8 May 2024.  https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/chris-stott-s-5-high-conviction-stock-ideas-for-the-new-bull-market   

The past six months have been golden for investors, with everything from equities to gold and even Bitcoin enjoying stellar runs. And if risk assets are not your bag, then there have been juicy yields on offer across a range of cash and fixed-income asset classes.  Animal spirits woke from their slumber in late October 2023 when the Fed effectively claimed victory in the fight against inflation. Markets have been led to believe that rate cuts are a forgone conclusion in the year ahead, and participants have been piling into risk assets accordingly.  Christopher Joye, portfolio manager and chief investment officer at Coolabah Capital Investments, says that markets have become so complacent that they appear to be completely ignoring a growing set of data suggesting that the path forward might not be smooth. Most notably, the resurgent inflation data coming out of the US is causing interest rate cut expectations to be dialled back and kicked down the road. When asked what he thought investors were getting wrong about markets today, Joye was quick to call the dichotomy between what the economy is suggesting needs to happen with interest rates and market expectations. “If this strong data keeps coming through then hold onto your hats because the world is not priced for this risk. Make no mistake, there is no margin for error in listed equities. There is no margin for error in venture capital, private equity, zero in crypto, in commercial real estate, nothing,” Joye argued. Tune in to the latest episode of the Rules of Investing, where Livewire's James Marlay ask Joye about his views on the outlook for both the US and Australian economies, the three risks he is watching and where he sees value in Australian residential real estate.

Quality growth stocks, those with fortress balance sheets, impressive moats, structural tailwinds and top-notch management teams, have had a stellar run recently. Take Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) for example, which has risen 66% over the past year. Or Megaport (ASX: MP1), up over 252% in 12 months alone.  If you're like this anonymous writer, you've probably started to ponder whether it's time to trim some of your winning positions and take some profits.  And according to TMS Capital's Ben Clark, we may have just reached that point.  "A lot of investors are trying to chase a very small number of stocks in Australia because of the AI trade," he says.  "And I'd just be a bit wary about that because although those companies absolutely should benefit, it's just how quickly those benefits flow through and whether the market has just got a bit ahead of itself in terms of the benefits that will come through in the medium term."  In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Clark sits down with Livewire's Ally Selby for a conversation on all things artificial intelligence, growth investing and holy grail stocks.  He shares where he is putting some of the firm's dry powder to work, a few reasons why investors should feel optimistic about the outlook for markets, and whether he would be buying the AI behemoths both globally and locally today despite their stellar runs over the last six months.  Plus, Clark shares why the tables may be turning once again for out-of-love growth darling CSL (ASX: CSL).  Note: This episode was recorded on Tuesday 9 April 2024.  Timecodes:  0:00 - Intro  1:54 - Ben Clark's outlook for the remainder of 2024  4:17 - Record cash holdings in the US and what this means for markets  6:51 - Why Aussie investors are also holding a lot of cash  7:39 - The most common question Ben Clark is hearing from clients  10:01 - The takeaways from Ben's trip to SXSW in the US 12:13 - Learnings from a private meeting with a Google executive  15:11 - The outlook for Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL) 16:25 - Can the momentum continue for global AI winners like Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA)  19:17 - The ASX-listed stocks that directly benefit from AI  23:17 - Why some of these stocks' share prices may have gotten ahead of themselves 24:30 - Holy grail stocks - and why Brickworks (ASX: BKW), WiseTech (ASX: WTC), REA Group (ASX: REA) and CSL (ASX: CSL) make the cut  29:32 - Where Ben Clark has started to take profits  31:28 - And where he is putting that cash to work  36:11 - One thing the market is getting wrong today  38:03 - Lessons for growth investors from the 2022 bear market  42:59 - A stock to buy and hold for the next five years

If there is one theme that has taken the world by storm in 2024, it's Artificial Intelligence or AI.  Until very recently, this week's guest was a bit of a sceptic, but a recent trip to the US has seen him come back a changed man. In this episode, we'll be sitting down with investment adviser Ben Clark of TMS Capital. We'll be learning about the wonderful world of growth investments, the key technological innovations that have him excited and his top holy grail stocks.  Here's a sneak peek of what you can expect... 

If there is any one investment product that has experienced a true boom over the last 10 years, it is exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and exchange-traded products (ETPs) more broadly.  The number of listed products has increased by 17.5 times in Australia during the last decade alone. More than 300 products are now listed across the ASX and CBOE exchanges and two million Australians have at least one ETF in their portfolio. And, as if you need more proof of the growth of ETPs, 2024 marked the first time that inflows outpaced those going into unlisted managed funds.  So if we've seen this growth over the last decade, what could the next 10 years hold? In this episode of The Rules of Investing, we put this and other questions to Tamara Haban-Beer Stats, Director and ETF/Index Investments Specialist at BlackRock Australia. BlackRock is the world's largest asset manager and its ETF arm iShares runs 49 ETPs in the Australian market. In this episode, Tamara also discusses the key mega forces that BlackRock believes could drive markets over the long run, where they are overweight in portfolios and the asset classes they believe could see the biggest growth within ETPs over the coming years. Note: This episode was recorded on Tuesday 19 March 2024. Timestamps 0:00 - Intro 2:21 - BlackRock's outlook for the next 12 months 4:06 - What the new investing regime means for ETF investors 6:17 - The five "mega forces" of investing  9:13 - Currency impacts on ETF returns 10:27 - Will the Australian Dollar rebound in late 2024? 13:45 - Should investors consider hedged ETFs? 14:55 - Opportunities in Japan and the US 16:47 - Why the AI boom won't be early 2000 all over again 18:02 - The explosion of interest and uptake in ETFs 21:31 - The asset class that could gain the lion's share of growth in the future 23:17 - Other interesting innovations in the global ETF market 25:06 - Which products are seeing the most inflows and outflows in 2024? 27:31 - The Rules of Investing's regular questions (with an ETF twist)

Warryn Robertson, portfolio manager and analyst at Lazard Asset management, understands the nuances of infrastructure assets like few others in the market. His approach is to find monopoly assets with inflation protected revenues, high margins and reasonable leverage then buy them at attractive prices.  Of the 400 listed infrastructure stocks globally only 160 have passed the four filters and typically Lazard's Global Listed Infrastructure Fund will own just 25 to 30 of those companies. Given the attractive nature of infrastructure assets it is unsurprising that sovereign wealth funds and private equity firms are also circling these assets. Robertson estimates that of the 160 stocks that meet his criteria 25 have been taken private and delisted.  The situation in Australia is even more challenging, of the 14 infrastructure and utility stocks on the ASX valued at more than $1 billion just four meet Warren's criteria as being ‘preferred infrastructure'. The good news is that Robertson is a firm believer and concentrating your capital into your best ideas. In this episode of the Rules of Investing, Warryn Robertson reviews the recent performance of that asset class through an inflationary environment, explains why US utilities look vulnerable and shares what he believes are the best opportunities in infrastructure.  Robertson also reveals what he regards as the top infrastructure stock on the ASX and an infrastructure company with an absolutely stunning earnings outlook.

"Living Legend", "One of a kind", and "Diamond in the Rough are not terms usually bandied about when describing economists! But these are just a few of the hundreds of messages of support and appreciation that flooded a recent social media post recognising the 40-year tenure Dr Shane Oliver to AMP. Shane has dedicated his years to educating Australians on all matters of the economy. His style tends to be glass half full, and you'll rarely hear him pushing doomsday forecasts. He also possesses an uncanny ability to make complex matters easy to understand and is usually armed with some cracking charts to drive home his points. In this episode of the Rules of Investing, Shane explains why central banks are close to pulling off Mission Impossible and avoiding recession. He believes interest rates have peaked and will drift lower as inflation returns to the RBA's target range. The episode also touches on a range of issues, including population growth, housing affordability and Australia's exposure to the Chinese economy.   

If you're looking for the future blue chips of the ASX then Washington H Soul Pattinson might be worth a closer look. The company has been around for more than a century, has never missed a dividend payment but, for the most part, has flown under investor radars. That is starting to change following the tie up with Milton Corporation in 2021, which has helped to propel Soul Patts's market cap over $12 bn and into the S&P/ASX 50. Soul Patts now sits alongside popular names including Mineral Resources, Car Group, ASX Ltd and Ramsay Healthcare.  Blue chip stocks are known to be large, reliable, profitable and consistent dividend payers. Soul Patts ticks most of these boxes with the exception of size perhaps. The merger with Milton brought an experienced investment team led by CEO and CIO Brendan O'Dea, 30,000 new shareholders and a $3.7bn large cap portfolio. O'Dea is now the Chief Investment Officer at Soul Patts and says the merger gives Soul Patts the platform required to build the next generation of investments that will sustain Soul Patts enviable track record of shareholder returns. “There's a real desire on our part to seed the strategic assets of the future and a lot of that is going to come out of that private portfolio.” In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Brendan O'Dea takes Livewire's James Marlay on a tour of the Soul Patts investment portfolio covering their large cap, emerging and strategic equity portfolios.  O'Dea also shares Soul Patts' unique approach to capital allocation, the asset classes commanding their attention and why you should expect to see more big strategic investments in the years ahead.

The structural forces that saw growth investing rise to the top after the GFC remain. Covid created a blip, but the world is returning to slow growth, low inflation and lower interest rates. That's the perspective of Jason Orthman, the Deputy Chief Investment Officer of Brisbane-based Hyperion Asset Management.  Orthman says that neither you, me, nor our grandchildren are likely to experience an environment like 2022, where rapid interest rate hikes rocked long-duration assets such as government bonds and growth equities.  "2022 was an incredibly unusual period. We've looked at markets over the last 250 years, and you haven't seen interest rates at the long end move quickly to that level over 250 years of data. We believe it's a one-in-250-year event," says Orthman. Structural forces, including ageing populations and the rise of automation, will continue to create a disinflationary and low-growth world in the decades to come. This backdrop means that those rare companies that can grow at rates well ahead of GDP can provide investors with exceptional returns.  Orthman and the Hyperion team have a disciplined approach to finding these rare gems, starting with twelve structural growth trends, such as productivity, the shift towards artificial intelligence (AI), and banking and payments. These parts of the economy are likely to grow and present fertile ground for finding future blue-chip companies.  In this episode of the Rules of Investing, Ortham speaks with Livewire's James Marlay about Hyperion's approach to growth investing, the wild ride of 2022 and the long-term opportunities the firm has identified.  Orthman also shares what he describes as 'one of the most important investments' the firm has ever made, what investors are missing about the Tesla story and two companies he believes are poised for significant revenue growth over the next decade.

Each year, Barron's releases a list of Australia's Top 100 Financial Advisers. Pitcher Partners' Charlie Viola and Lipman and Burgon Partners' Paul Burgon have featured high on this list over the years, and both ranked in the top 10 in 2023. As part of Livewire's Outlook Series for 2024, Livewire's James Marlay hosted an in-depth panel discussion exploring how these two investing gurus are allocating capital on behalf of their clients in 2024. Whilst there is no 'one size fits all' when it comes to investing, there are nuggets of insight from this session that can help all investors. Click here to access the charts discussed in this episode and a summary of the discussion  Timecodes 0:00 - Introducing the experts 0:49 - Charlie Viola's top three factors influencing asset allocation in 2024 3:20 - Paul Burgon's top three factors influencing asset allocation in 2024 6:15 - Asset classes where Paul and Charlie are overweight or underweight 9:53 - Why Private Markets will play a bigger role in portfolios in 2024 and beyond 12:40 - Charlie Viola's Asset Allocation framework for 2024 16:33 - Paul's Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation frameworks for 2024 22:26 - How these advisers are innovating in 2024 25:50 - Four investing traps to avoid in 2024

Two years ago, on a trip to Perth, Yarra Capita's Dion Hershan was pitched the case for lithium stocks by his Uber driver. Hershan says it was a cliche moment and a classic example of a ‘ringing the bell' sign. On the flip side, there are moments when deciding to invest causes your stomach to churn and your hands to quiver. “Some of the best ideas I've had in my career were when my stomach churned and my hands trembled when I put the trade on. That's often a good lead indicator.” Recent investments in fallen angel ResMed (ASX: RMD) and an overweight position in the beaten down REITs sector are two examples Hershan provides of how Yarra is taking long-term counter-consensus thinking. This counter-consensus thinking also applies to the companies Hershan and his team are cautious about, which include large parts of the ASX20, including resources and banks. Hershan says that while these companies may not fall out of the top 20, their best days are likely behind them. In this episode of the Rules of Investing, Hershan talks about the lessons from working inside the most successful global hedge fund, why he is cautious about the outlook for blue chips and the companies he thinks represent the best long-term opportunities for the slow grind that lies ahead.   Timestamps 0:00 - Introduction 3:06 - How Dion caught the investing bug 4:40 - Lessons from working at Citadel 8:35 - Why macro matters for Australian equity investors 11:08 - The raging debate taking place at Yarra Capital 14:30 - How much pain will consumers feel in 2024 17:29 - Why you should be complacent about blue chip stocks 22:05 - The best opportunities Yarra is finding on the ASX 24:57 - A fallen angel that Yarra thinks can rebound 26:52 - The thesis for being overweight REITs 36:00 - What investors are getting wrong in markets today 37:15 - Lessons from an early win 38:32 - Two stocks Dion would be happy to back if the market shut for 5 years Related Articles   https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/five-themes-on-our-shopping-list    https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/avoiding-the-blue-chips-heading-for-small-cap-status