The Rules of Investing

QVG Capital's Chris Prunty joins the Rules of Investing to unpack what makes the great companies great. He shares the three traits found in Australia's “Hall of Fame” stocks, reveals four small caps he believes could follow in their footsteps, and explains why QVG is backing Hub24 over Netwealth in the battle of the investment platforms.

Property moves in cycles, but real value lies in assets you can't replace. Quay Global Investors' Chris Bedingfield joins The Rules of Investing to explain why global REITs are trading at some of the biggest discounts in years, how ageing demographics and construction costs are reshaping real estate, and why patience remains the most underrated edge for investors. ________________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

It's hard to know what markets will do next week, let alone next year. But what if you could identify companies that will be in a stronger position five years from now? That's the approach taken by Lev Margolin, founder of System Capital, a Melbourne-based long/short strategy that's delivered more than 22% per annum since inception. In this episode of The Rules of Investing, we unpack the four-step framework that guides his process, where he's finding opportunities in a hot market, and the businesses he believes are quietly building long-term strength. ________________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

Soul Patts CEO Todd Barlow joins The Rules of Investing to unpack the firm's merger with Brickworks, why he's buying at cyclical lows, and how he's positioning for the future of energy. He also shares why liquidity and humility matter when markets are running hot. ________________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

Markets are on fire and bubble talk is everywhere. So how should investors respond? In this episode, Magellan's Arvid Streimann breaks down how to keep emotion out of your decisions, where he's finding genuine value, and why he still believes in the power of brands and discipline. ________________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Centennial's Matthew Kidman shares his playbook for the late stage of a structural bull market. He explains why valuations don't matter (for now), how he found his first 10-bagger, and the standout management teams on the ASX. Plus, Kidman reveals why he's still bullish on markets — and what could eventually bring it all undone.

Warryn Robertson has spent two decades investing in the assets that keep the world running — from toll roads to transmission lines and satellites. In this episode, he explains the rules for owning the world's best assets, why getting the definition right matters, and what investors are getting wrong about markets today. ________________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

Two of Australia's most respected investment firms share how they are positioning for tomorrow. Learn where they see opportunity and how their strategies are evolving. From private credit to gold, discover where Soul Patts' Todd Barlow and Regal's Phil King see the biggest returns. ________________ This series is proudly sponsored by Bell Direct Advantage. Bell Direct Advantage is a premium trading platform designed for active and sophisticated investors. It provides access to Bell Potter research, exclusive IPOs, and advanced trading tools, all aimed at giving you a competitive edge. Whether you're a frequent trader or a high-net-worth individual looking to trade shares, options, or warrants, Bell Direct Advantage offers a tailored platform and superior service to sharpen your investing edge. [Find out more here]

From gaming stock to global giant, Nvidia shows how fast the future can arrive. Global stock pickers Josh Cummings, Qiao Ma and Dr David Allen share where they see the next mega caps emerging. ________________ This series is proudly sponsored by Bell Direct Advantage. Bell Direct Advantage is a premium trading platform designed for active and sophisticated investors. It provides access to Bell Potter research, exclusive IPOs, and advanced trading tools, all aimed at giving you a competitive edge. Whether you're a frequent trader or a high-net-worth individual looking to trade shares, options, or warrants, Bell Direct Advantage offers a tailored platform and superior service to sharpen your investing edge. [Find out more here]

Banks and miners dominate the ASX, but the opportunity doesn't end there. At Livewire Live 2025, L1 Capital's Mark Landau and Allan Gray's Simon Mawhinney shared their conviction calls beyond these portfolio staples. This episode is part of our special mini-series of The Rules of Investing, giving you a front-row seat to discussions from Livewire Live 2025, our flagship investor event. Whether you're after big-picture market insights or actionable investment strategies, this series offers exclusive insights to help shape your investment decisions. We hope you enjoy this special 4-part series. We'll return to our regular programming with the next episode of The Rules of Investing. ________________ This series is proudly sponsored by Bell Direct Advantage. Bell Direct Advantage is a premium trading platform designed for active and sophisticated investors. It provides access to Bell Potter research, exclusive IPOs, and advanced trading tools, all aimed at giving you a competitive edge. Whether you're a frequent trader or a high-net-worth individual looking to trade shares, options, or warrants, Bell Direct Advantage offers a tailored platform and superior service to sharpen your investing edge. [Find out more here]

If you're still betting on bear markets or mean reversion to drag asset prices back to earth, you're living in a bygone era. That's the message from Viktor Shvets, Macquarie's Head of Global Strategy, who joined us at Livewire Live 2025. This episode is part of our special mini-series of The Rules of Investing, giving you a front-row seat to discussions from Livewire Live 2025, our flagship investor event. Whether you're after big-picture market insights or actionable investment strategies, this series offers exclusive insights to help shape your investment decisions. We hope you enjoy this special 4-part series. We'll return to our regular programming with the next episode of The Rules of Investing. ________________ This series is proudly sponsored by Bell Direct Advantage. Bell Direct Advantage is a premium trading platform designed for active and sophisticated investors. It provides access to Bell Potter research, exclusive IPOs, and advanced trading tools, all aimed at giving you a competitive edge. Whether you're a frequent trader or a high-net-worth individual looking to trade shares, options, or warrants, Bell Direct Advantage offers a tailored platform and superior service to sharpen your investing edge. [Find out more here]

Christopher Joye is making a bold call on the US. He believes Trump's policies will deliver exceptionally strong growth, fuelled by tariffs, tax cuts, and trillions in AI-driven investment. In this episode, Joye explains why he is so bullish on America, what the bond market is signalling, and his advice for investors as hybrids roll off in the years ahead. ________________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

Large caps are often seen as the steady corner of the market, but recent months have reminded us they're anything but boring. On this episode of The Rules of Investing, Anna Milne, Deputy Portfolio Manager of WAM Leaders shares how Wilson Asset Management is navigating volatility in the ASX 200.  Milne discusses why they like commodities and how the listed investment company structure allows them to back “fallen angels” they believe still have plenty to give. She also highlights the dependable large caps quietly compounding away, and reveals the one company she'd hold if markets shut for the next five years. Book recommendation: Good to Great ________________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

August reporting season was a rollercoaster but it didn't stop the momentum that has been pushing the ASX higher in 2025.  There were shock sell-offs, steady beats, and a very strong showing from small caps. To help make sense of it, Livewire spoke with small cap stock picker Chris Stott from 1851 Capital, and our very own Kerry Sun, who spends his days hunting for insights from announcements, broker notes and market moves to share with readers on Market Index and Livewire. This episode of The Rules of Investing was a little different. We unpacked the big themes and surprising stats, dug into the drivers of small-cap strength, and finished off by handing out five light-hearted reporting season awards - from the Stephen Bradbury Award (for the company everyone had written off) to the Sir Alex Ferguson Award (for standout management).    ________________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

MA Financial has built its reputation in the toughest corner of the corporate world, restructures. In the years after the GFC, it advised on some of Australia's most complex and high-profile turnarounds, from Centro Properties and Alinta Energy to Babcock & Brown and Nine Entertainment. Today, the firm manages over $12 billion and has grown into a major player in private lending. In this episode, Livewire speaks with Frank Danieli, Head of Credit Investments and Lending, about how MA Financial's restructure heritage shapes its credit strategies, why uncertainty is a constant, and where he sees opportunities, including an unexpected one in car loans.   ________________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

Investing feels easier when markets are messy. When volatility spikes and fear takes hold, putting fresh capital to work can feel rational, even opportunistic. But when markets are cruising near record highs, valuations look stretched, and AI stocks are powering ahead like a runaway train, adding to a portfolio can feel unnerving. It's a sentiment shared by many right now. With the ASX 200 trading at elevated multiples and earnings growth on track to post its third consecutive annual decline, the contradiction is hard to ignore. But according to FNArena Editor Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, it's not a bubble, and the market isn't broken. The real problem? Investors are using the wrong lens. “The averages are masking the detail,” he argues. High index-level valuations are being distorted by a handful of heavyweight stocks, while strong underlying growth is still coming through in key parts of the market. In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Rudi joins Livewire's James Marlay to unpack what's really going on beneath the surface, why some companies are still worth owning at premium multiples, and how investors can navigate another volatile reporting season without getting spooked out of the market. ___________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

Step back for a moment and think about how technology has changed your life over the past two decades. What springs to mind? Smartphones, on-demand streaming (whether it's music or movies), digital maps, and the broad adoption of artificial intelligence, all powered by fast, affordable and readily available internet access. The list goes on, and there's no doubt these advances are changing the way we live. But are they truly life-changing? In many cases, yes, but often they're about convenience and productivity. There's one industry where the pace of innovation is just as rapid, and the impact arguably more profound: healthcare. More specifically, in this episode of The Rules of Investing, we explore the world of medical technology with Jacob Celermajer, founder of Cordis Asset Management.

For all the scrutiny on private credit of late, one thing remains clear – there remains an insatiable demand for it from investors. Case in point, the recent $315 million raise by Metrics Credit Partners for the Metrics Master Income Trust. It was done in a day. Yet for the man often at the centre of the conversation, Metrics co-founder and Chief Investment Officer, Andrew Lockhart, the mission remains the same as when Metrics was born 12 years ago: raise capital, deploy it sensibly, and above all else, manage the ongoing risks accordingly. "You're fundamentally here to deliver a good outcome for people in terms of their investments. And you never lose sight of the fact that our whole business is set up to effectively manage risk to ensure that we can deliver on our commitments and obligations to our investors," said Lockhart.  That unwavering focus, coupled with an ‘always on' work ethic, has seen Lockhart and his team grow Metrics to $30 billion of assets under management, with no signs of slowing down. In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Lockhart discusses the conditions that led to the birth of Metrics, its phenomenal growth, and the ongoing challenges that it and the private credit sector face. He also unpacks the current market conditions and what lower interest rates will mean for Metrics' opportunity set and potential returns for investors. Finally, he shares an exciting new growth opportunity that leverages the company's existing relationships and skillset. Don't miss this opportunity to hear directly from someone who has been instrumental in shaping Australia's private credit landscape. Read the summary on Livewire: https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/in-his-own-words-andrew-lockhart-on-risk-regulation-and-responsibility-to-investors

Markets are forward looking and are one of the strongest indicators of what lies ahead for global economies. This dynamic reflects the thinking of millions of market participants digesting and pricing available information to guide how asset prices reflect the future. For all the twists, turns, and curveballs that 2025 has delivered, markets are, in many cases, at or above where the year started. The S&P 500 is in the green, the ASX 200 is up, and yields on US 10-year bonds, a useful proxy for risk appetite, are lower than at the start of the year. At face value, you might conclude that investors are more confident about the economic outlook, or at the very least more comfortable than they were in January. But not all signals are flashing green. A 10% fall year-to-date in the safe-haven US dollar is one example that warrants closer inspection. That's the view of Fidelity International's Chief Investment Officer of Equities, Niamh Brodie-Machura, who oversees a team of more than 120 analysts managing over $220 billion for Fidelity clients.

“People are getting too short term. They're getting panicked by the developments taking place on tariffs and so forth... they don't realise it's often just a bargaining point.” That's the view of Mark Mobius, a pioneer in emerging markets investing and founder of Mobius Investments. Mobius says many investors are misreading the noise echoing around global markets. His advice? “Be patient and be willing to roll with the punches.” In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Livewire's James Marlay caught up with Mobius in New York to explore how he's navigating global uncertainty, the investing lessons from decades of travel and working in Asia, and why he believes India is shaping up to be the standout opportunity of the next decade. With a PhD from MIT and a track record that includes growing Templeton's Emerging Markets Fund from $100 million to $50 billion, Mobius has experienced the highs and lows of multiple market cycles and dislocations. _____________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

Ellerston Capital's fixed-income and multi-asset strategist Vimal Gor says the radical Trump presidency means the US Federal Reserve will be forced to return to quantitative easing later this year to cap bond yields and offset the nation's fiscal problems. In this podcast, Gor also details why he thinks this means shares, gold and bitcoin can rally later this year. He also argues why he thinks the Aussie dollar will jump versus the greenback on the back of radical shifts in markets that may be set to accelerate and impact every investor. _____________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

Amazon spent over a decade as a misunderstood stock - volatile, unprofitable, and often written off. But for those who looked past the noise, it became one of the greatest investments of our time. Today, Janus Henderson sees echoes of that journey in Spotify. It may not look like a market leader yet, but under the surface, the building blocks of enduring growth are falling into place. In this episode, Josh Cummings explains how volatility creates opportunity, why time is a long-term investor's best friend, and what separates the winners from the noise. Is Spotify your second shot at an Amazon-style success?

In this special episode of The Rules of Investing, veteran stockbroker and Marcus Today founder Marcus Padley joins Livewire's James Marlay for a wide-ranging conversation on two critical themes. First, Marcus takes aim at the industry's obsession with buy-and-hold, arguing that smart market timing isn't just possible - it's essential for managing risk and avoiding underperformance. Then, he fields Livewire reader questions on everything from gold and lithium to bond yields and WiseTech. It's bold, unfiltered, and classic Marcus. _____________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

Equity markets have bounced, but Andrew Mitchell from Ophir says the road ahead is tricky. Higher bond yields and policy risks point to slower growth. In this environment, companies that can grow through the cycle will stand out. In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Mitchell shares his views on equity markets, the dominance of US megacaps, and why he remains optimistic on small and mid-caps. He also unpacks the thesis behind a mission-critical tech stock flying under the radar, one he believes has the potential to become a rare ‘Rule of 40' standout. _____________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

Australia's ETF industry is booming - up $53 billion in the past year alone - and a new player is stepping into the ring. David Tuckwell, son of ETF pioneer Graeme Tuckwell, has launched ETF Shares to challenge the giants like Vanguard and Betashares. His weapon of choice? Low fees and ultra-focused US tech exposure. One fund holds just the top 10 Nasdaq stocks - an audacious bet on concentration over diversification. Is there room for another player in an increasingly crowded market? We explore the strategy, the story, and the stakes behind ETF Shares' bold launch.   _____________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

Investors hoping for a swift ‘V-shaped' recovery from the recent market sell-off are likely to be disappointed. Instead, they face a slow, grinding path forward. That's the base case from Koda Capital's Chief Economist, Brigette Leckie, who says the tariff-led policies of Trump 2.0 represent a structural break for economies and markets.   _____________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

“Are you okay?” That was the question Emma Fisher got from her mum after the ASX plunged more than 6% in a single day. For Fisher, it was a soft signal that the worst of the panic may be behind us. In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Emma shares why sharp sell-offs are the new normal, the two market “buckets” she's buying from, and how she's funding new ideas. Last time she was on the podcast, Emma tipped ResMed at $22. This time, she's back with a fresh idea she's backing for the next 5 years. _____________________ Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

No matter how long you've been in markets, we're all guilty, at one point or another, of operating at a headline level. When markets are moving violently - like they are now - and we're all trying to keep up, operating at a summary level can become even more pronounced. But looking beyond the headlines, challenging what you think you know, and diving deeper into complex issues, will almost certainly always yield a better result. For example, one of the dominant narratives right now is that Trump's tariffs will lead to higher inflation. Logically, it makes sense. But the reality could look quite different according to Charlie Jamieson, Co-Founder of Jamieson Coote Bonds. “Everybody just jumps to ‘tariffs mean higher prices, that means inflation'. Well, it's not quite that simple. It definitely means higher prices, but that does potentially mean demand destruction in some things. It really matters how elastic the thing that is being tariffed actually is", says Jamieson. He goes on to provide the example of a 100% tariff on a luxury handbag: “you probably won't sell too many.” Conversely, a tariff on the one little part you need for a broken-down heating or air conditioning unit: " You're probably going to pay it because you're really, really need it - it's very inelastic.” Jamieson also points out that inflation is “a continual and sustained increase in pricing”. “If prices go up 10% that's terrible, obviously demand will be affected, but if they don't change thereafter, it's not inflationary.  It just means that yes, of course it is in the very first reading of, but it's not a continued and sustained price increase”. The final piece to this puzzle is what happened last time. “As we saw in Trump 1.0, despite his tariffs at that time, inflation continually fell through that period”, notes Jamieson. “Trump's thinking is that if he can bring that budgetary deficit down considerably, it will also help take out excess demand, it'll bring more efficiency to government and in doing so, he will lower inflation”. This is just one of the many narratives that Jamieson unpacks in the following Rules of Investing podcast, which covers a lot of ground about the global economy, central bank policy, interest rates, inflation, and why investors have a great opportunity right now to rethink and reposition their portfolios. Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

At the start of 2025, there were three big-picture scenarios facing investors: a hard landing, a soft landing, or no landing at all. Just two of those scenarios remain, with a hard landing now off the table, according to Ten Cap's Jun Bei Liu. That view might seem a touch ambitious in light of the market rout that kicked off in mid-February and gathered steam as sticky inflation and a tariff war put equity valuations under pressure. The ASX 200 has fallen 8.5% in a month and is down over 4.5% for 2025. The picture is worse for US equities, where, after back-to-back years of +20% gains, the S&P 500 has shed over 10% in a month and is down over 5% from the start of the year. The headlines and moves are unnerving, but the backdrop for equities remains favourable, and the volatility is creating opportunities to buy businesses at better valuations, according to Jun Bei Liu.   Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

The allure of small-cap investing is undeniable. The chance to find an overlooked gem that can skyrocket is real, but the risks are just as high. Illiquidity, limited analyst coverage, and varying investor strategies create opportunities—but also traps. Success stories like Pro Medicus and Netwealth prove the potential, yet the volatility can be brutal. Steve Johnson, CIO at Forager Funds, knows this world well. In the latest episode of The Rules of Investing, he shares his journey from investment newsletters to funds management and reveals the small caps he's backing for future growth. Don't miss it!

From investing his paper route money in term deposits when he was nine years old, to racing the two kilometres from one end of Collins Street to the other to submit a handwritten RBA bond tender, to running a market-beating income fund for more than 20 years, Yarra Capital Management's Roy Keenan has seen it all in his 40 years in fixed income. It is this broad experience and love for fixed income that makes Keenan such an interesting person to talk to, particularly given the world as we find it today. There's a new regime taking shape in the US, the promises of which will need to be funded by new paper, locally we have state governments in trouble (none more so than Victoria, where Keenan was at the coalface last time it was broke), whilst the energy transition and other major investment themes are creating opportunities. Making sense of it all is always the key, but when you have four decades of experience you have learnt when to use your head and when to pay attention to your gut. "I think that the head tells you to put the trade on. I think the gut is the warning signal that something doesn't feel right and therefore instead of taking that trade off quickly, you might just let it run a little bit longer to see how it will play out," he says. So, which themes are dominating Keenan's head space and innards today? Be sure to listen to the podcast for insights on the world's biggest and most liquid markets, as well as some war stories from Keenan's 40 years in the market. 

Stock markets are off to a flying start for 2025. The S&P ASX 200 is up nearly 5%, with gold, banks and technology companies continuing their bull runs from 2024. The consensus view is that banks and tech are expensive, but the market doesn't seem to agree, or at least it doesn't care. Moments like this can be challenging for investors; fundamentals tell you to look the other way, but ignoring the temptation to follow the momentum is hard. In this episode of the Rules of Investing, Laretive shares some tips for keeping a cool head when markets are on fire, identifies some opportunities from the lower Aussie dollar and discusses three stocks he thinks can deliver strong results in the upcoming reporting season.   Paul Tudor Jones article Seneca's M&A list

The past few years have been kind to investors. A glance over 2024 asset class returns suggests that most Australian investors have been sitting on healthy gains for the past 12 months, with the much-loved banks leading the charge. Global equity exposure will have sweetened returns, with the S&P 500 clocking up consecutive years of +20%. Even conservative investors have been rewarded with returns on cash, which is the best we've seen in decades. It's in our nature to resist making changes to a winning formula. However, with market leadership being highly concentrated and, for the most part, coming from high-growth stocks, there's a decent chance that your portfolio has developed a few biases and overweight positions. Why does this matter? Markets have repeatedly reminded us that good times don't last. Reviewing your portfolio and making tweaks or rebalances is prudent. This ensures you harvest some of those gains and position your portfolio for all market conditions. Livewire's James Marlay spoke with Charlie Viola from Viola Private Wealth and Ben Clark from TMS Private Wealth to explore the factors they think matter for 2025, discuss how they are allocating capital for the year ahead, and to get some professional tips on rebalancing your portfolio. Putting theory into practice, he also revealed his SMSF portfolio and asked our guests to share the changes they would make. To see the charts and tables referenced in the podcast are on this link: https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/how-to-invest-1-million-in-2025 Charts Inflation Earnings Yield Aus vs US earnings Asset Allocation Tables    

If you're feeling upbeat about markets as we head into 2025, you're not alone. 41% of investors that participated in Livewire's Outlook Series Survey said they are feeling optimistic about markets right now, well ahead of the following most popular response with 30% of survey participants saying they are feeling anxious. The responses are not surprising, given the decisive run in equity markets in recent years. The S&P 500 is on the cusp of racking up consecutive years of 20%+ returns. A feat only achieved four times since 1926.  The other instances occurred in 1927-1928 before the great depression, in 1942-1943 during World War II, from 1995-1999 there were unprecedented gains with five 20%+ years and more recently in 2017-2018. Investors are likely feeling optimistic given the strong returns on offer, whilst it is natural that anxiety is growing and a recognition that the good times won't last forever.  Unfortunately, history provides little solace for those investors looking to the past in the hope that it might give some clues as to what 2025 might hold. The returns in the years following the four historical precedents are ambiguous, with a 50/50 split between negative and positive returns. However, the drawdown years were smaller than when markets continued to rally.  So, how does this information help us, and what should investors think about as we head into 2025? To answer this question, we drew on the expertise of top-rated financial adviser Paul Burgon, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner at Lipman Burgon and Partners. Paul has decades of experience allocating capital on behalf of his clients and was ranked #6 in 2024 on Barron's list of top financial advisers. Even with his experience, Paul acknowledges that predicting the future is fraught with danger and a recipe for disappointment. However, over his career, he has developed a set of ten principles that he believes can underwrite investment success.  These principles draw on the renowned endowment model of investing developed by David Swenson and are now widely adopted by many leading investment institutions, including Australia's Future Fund.  Yale's endowment fund returns under Swenson are compelling, having delivered annual returns of 14% over 35 years.  Summarising the underlying objective of Burgon's philosophy is relatively simple. He is seeking to remove or dampen the influence of emotions on investment decisions. In 2024, access to extensive research, institutional-grade investment models and improved access to private markets make it possible to achieve more consistent returns, reducing the prospect of poor decision-making at times of peak emotion.  While few of us will be seeking to replicate the allocation of global endowment funds, I'm sure most of us would like to bank the healthy returns of recent years and dampen the impact of any impending market dislocations.  “If you can have more reliability of outcomes in your equity allocation and more consistency of returns that is a much better way to allocate capital than trying to chase the next high-performing manager.” In the final episode of The Rules of Investing, we hope to leave you with valuable asset allocation and portfolio construction insights from one of Australia's top financial advisers. And while we'd all love to see another 20% + year from the S&P 500, it makes sense to ensure your portfolio can withstand the chance that 2025 could be a down year. Better to be safe than sorry!

The Australian property market is incredibly nuanced. Markets like Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth are soaring by double digits while the markets of Sydney and Melbourne have started to cool considerably. But even if prices in the largest housing markets are mellowing, it does not take away the core and indisputable argument: Housing may never have been affordable but now, the crisis is worse than ever. Andrew Schwartz, Co-Founder, CIO, and Managing Director at alternative real estate investment manager Qualitas, doesn't see this structural situation changing any time soon. When he is asked to reflect on the last 12 months in the property market, he effectively described 2024 as one of the less memorable periods of recent years. "I think it'll go down as one of the less exciting years that we're going to think about when we reflect on the years that have gone by," Schwartz reflects.  "As we're approaching the end of 2024, it's quite clear that markets are starting to slow down and a lot of that momentum is coming out of the market." But he does see next year becoming far more "interesting", "fascinating", and even a "thriller" for investors in this asset class. "I think it's getting very exciting in 2025. There are many reasons why I feel that but in particular, residential property is affected by supply and demand and interest rates. When you look at each of those individual factors, you do see a market where Australia is caught short on the supply side at the moment and it's been very hard to get supply into the market. We have quite significant demand coming in and we have had a sustained period of relatively high interest rates," Schwartz says. Schwartz's comments here on this asset class really matter. Qualitas, the company he co-founded, has nearly $9 billion in funds under management today, mainly from overseas and domestic institutional investors who want to access the lucky country's most famous asset. An asset that, Schwartz argues, is a better store of value than stocks, crypto, and even gold. On this week's edition of The Rules of Investing, Schwartz is sitting down with guest presenter Hans Lee to discuss his views on these key tailwinds, his take on the macro environment, and where he sees growth opportunities in the Australian property market today.  (APPLE PODCASTS) (SPOTIFY) (PODBEAN) other key insights you can expect Forget stocks, crypto, and gold: Residential property may be the best store of value out there "I actually think that residential property is one of the best stores of value you can consider ... that is my personal opinion." "A beautiful store of value is buying land and you know we are going to be more and more densified over time. Personally, I find it hard to move away [from property] but that is how I think about residential property as a store of value." It's not about whether house prices rise, it's just about whether house prices will fall "One of the key measures for us is around the margin the developer is earning on the project. I don't think about the margin as a developer making money per se. I think about margin as safety for error. How much could we afford for prices to wind back?" Is the answer to unlocking housing supply just to "drop rates to zero"? "There is no doubt that if you want to stimulate the next round of the housing market, it's about dropping interest rates. The cost of capital is such a big factor in delivering projects." "However, the problem with dropping interest rates to that level is that one of the measures the RBA is very focussed on is the wealth effect of housing. The more people's houses are worth, the more they feel wealthy, and the more they go out and consume." How much will it cost for Australia to build 240,000 homes a year? "Construction costs have risen some 40% over the last three years in Australia. As a generalisation, housing prices and apartment prices, in particular, have not gone up by 40%." "Groups like ours see a lot very large volume of project feasibility where developers would like to get their projects financed."

Koda Capital is one of Australia's elite wealth management firms, charged with allocating over $11.5 billion of capital on behalf of high-net-worth individuals, family offices, and charitable foundations. For the past decade, Brigette Leckie has played a pivotal role in shaping the firm's views on where the best opportunities lie across global asset markets. Leckie firmly believes that understanding the macro environment is the starting point for building an investment strategy. And while it's not every day that investors like you and me get to pick the brains of an asset allocator with Brigette's experience. In this episode of the Rules of Investing, you'll get a front-row seat and learn how Brigette makes sense of the dynamics in global economies and what that means for investors. With a new regime set to take office in the world's largest economy and Australia's largest trading partner, China, amid a generational economic transition, the macro environment requires careful consideration for investors. Around the world with Brigette Leckie Fresh off the back of visits to Europe and the United States, Brigette made these observations. Europe: Better than the headlines and muddling through 'muddle through' Traffic is everywhere (yes, worse than Sydney) A change in attitudes towards experiences over spending on goods persists. Restaurants and streets are buzzing, and with the exception of Germany, economies will continue to muddle along Manufacturing in Germany remains sluggish United States: The gap is widening Inflation is real. Flights are at capacity, it's hard to get an Uber, and the streets are buzzing in many cities. The gap between the haves and the have-nots is widening. Politics remains highly divisive for families and corporations. "I did see divisiveness in a couple of things I did see on the corporate side. So, for example, getting into a car and asking the driver what his views on the election were, and he said, "Company policy is we don't talk about the election or politics." So that surprised me," said Leckie. China: Three significant issues to deal with Leckie says that China has been letting market forces deal with three major issues in its economy, and she expects these will take some time to resolve. Deflation: This remains an issue caused by excess capacity in the economy. Weak consumer: Consumer sentiment is fragile, creating a downward deflation spiral. Excesses of the property market: This is a well-documented issue that will take time to work through. Historically, China's policy has been boom or bust. Leckie believes that a mindset shift has taken place, and the old approach is being replaced by genuine reform. The goal is to gradually turn China into a more consumer-based economy. A stronger China is good for global economies, especially Australia; however, we should not expect the boom days of the past to return. So does macro matter? Leckie emphatically believes that understanding macroeconomics is the foundation of good investment strategy and asset allocation. She cites the example of interest rates near zero or negative as a point in time when the macroeconomics was 'out of whack' and providing a clear signal. Developed market bonds were 'uninvestable' in her eyes—a call that has been vindicated in recent years. Currency markets can also provide a signal. Most of the time, currencies trade in a narrow range, but there are times when they get to extremes. For example, the Australian dollar was worth less than US50 cents, and equally, it traded at parity. For globally diversified portfolios, these extreme moments matter. Three points for asset allocation right now Leckie says returns in recent years have been exceptional, and investors should be mindful not to extrapolate these into the future. Knowing what risk you will tolerate is easy to underestimate when markets are ripping higher. Leckie had these key messages for investors. Hold your conviction on big calls. If you have a strong foundation for your positions, you need to be willing to ride out short-term noise. Investors are too bullish on risk assets and should be cautious about expecting these returns to continue Diversification will be crucial over the period ahead. Investors must ensure their portfolios are properly diversified with uncorrelated investments.

For those who love equities, you're in for a treat with the latest Rules of Investing podcast. This week's episode features First Sentier Investors' Deputy Head of Australian Equities Growth, David Wilson. Wilson's bread and butter is picking high-quality growth companies - a role he executes every day as part of the team that runs the First Sentier Geared Australian Share Fund. He is not afraid to explain how he goes about doing this while acknowledging his missteps and sharing a handful of stocks he likes right now. When it comes to his process for picking stocks, Wilson says it's all “pretty logical”. “We just try to invest in good businesses with management that are trying to do the right thing for you and with the right sort of balance sheet. It's pretty straightforward. You can overcomplicate these things, but generally, that's our approach”, says Wilson. Wilson adds that the team watches company management very closely:  “What they're trying to achieve, what their goals are, but also at their actions, particularly when they make an acquisition or divestment - that's a point where you get a real insight into how a company is thinking," says Wilson. Wilson points to Car Group (ASX: CAR) as a company with a solid acquisition history. The company is a recent addition to the portfolio, though Wilson acknowledges that he was a bit late to the party. Another stock he particularly likes right now is pallet-maker and logistics company Brambles (ASX: BXB), saying that “the new management team has brought in a real pricing discipline over the last five years”, which has allowed them to cement a dominant position as a global leader. In the following episode, Wilson also discusses the Fund's current overweights in tech and healthcare and names one stock from each sector that stands out (one of which is also the stock he would own if the market closed for five years). In terms of what Wilson doesn't like right now, he talks about the shrinking position of consumer staples and explains why they haven't been “quite so staple” over the past year. He also talks to sector underweights in energy, financials and materials – despite being overweight BHP Group (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO). For good measure, he also shares his thoughts on Rio's takeover of Arcadium Lithium. Finally, in explaining how valuations matter, Wilson shares why he is underweight Cochlear (ASX: COH), despite it being a great business. Listen to the podcast to learn what keeps Wilson motivated after 40 years in markets, how he sees the current market conditions, and learn a little more about his process for picking stocks. For good measure, he'll even share with you which financial metric is a waste of time!   Note: This interview was recorded on Tuesday22 October 2024. 

In a world where artificial intelligence dominates headlines, few fund managers have harnessed it as boldly as Armina Rosenberg. For those who don't know her, "Arms" made a name for herself at Grok Ventures, the family office of Mike Cannon-Brookes. Now, she's paving a new path at AI-backed Minotaur Capital, alongside Perpetual alumnus Thomas Rice. The duo have developed Taurient, a software system that uses large language models for everything from idea generation to portfolio construction. In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Arms outlines how you can use AI to level up your own investment strategy, as well as a few stock ideas to get you started.  Note: This interview was recorded on Wednesday 9 October 2024.  Timecodes 0:00 - Intro  2:13 - Lessons learnt from managing the wealth of Australia's mega-rich  7:32 - Family involvement in investment in family offices  8:56 - Differences between how retail investors and mega-wealthy invest  10:01 - What makes Minotaur Capital different from its peers 13:23 - How Arms and Thomas met  15:26 - How Minotaur's AI system Taurient works  25:21 - Mix of fundamental investing and AI  26:30 - Can AI help to know when to sell a stock?  27:37 - Can investors develop an AI-backed system themselves?  29:04 - How investors can use ChatGPT to make smarter investing decisions  31:21 - The future of funds management in an AI world  34:32 - Where the team sees opportunity today i.e. exciting themes 37:13 - Energy companies making waves on the global stage  39:10 - AI winners - why Minotaur is backing smaller players over the behemoths  39:55 - Healthcare ideas - and an emerging oral GLP-1 winner in Japan  41:25 - Why Japan is a "once in a generation opportunity" 42:53 - An example of a company Minotaur is shorting  45:18 - What the market is getting wrong today - private credit  47:36 - Stories of wins and losses and lessons from these  51:51 - Two stocks for the next five years (if the market were to close in that time)

Today, we'll be bringing all the insights from Livewire Live together with the help of one of Australia's leading financial advisers and one of the country's top wealth managers. Livewire's James Marlay sat down with Alexandre Ventelon of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management and Charlie Viola of Pitcher Partners to answer our audience's questions about asset allocation and give investors some tangible ideas on how to apply the lessons and insights from a full day of sessions covering multiple asset classes, themes and ideas.  This episode is part of our special mini-series of The Rules of Investing, giving you a front-row seat to discussions from Livewire Live 2024, our flagship investor event. Whether you're after big-picture market insights or actionable investment strategies, this series offers exclusive insights to help shape your investment decisions. We hope you enjoy this special 7-part series. We'll return to our regular programming with the next episode of The Rules of Investing. ________________ This series is proudly sponsored by Bell Direct Advantage. Bell Direct Advantage is a premium trading platform designed for active and sophisticated investors. Offering access to Bell Potter research, exclusive IPOs, and advanced trading tools, it's built to give you a competitive edge. Whether you're a frequent trader or a high-net-worth individual trading shares, options, or warrants, Bell Direct Advantage delivers tailored solutions and superior service to sharpen your investing edge. [Find out more here]

Today, you'll be learning about the good, the bad and the ugly of equities markets - with the help of: Dr David Allen, Head of Long/Short Strategies, Plato Investment Management Ben Griffiths, Executive Chairman, Eley Griffiths Group James Hawkins, Partner & Head of the Catalyst Fund, L1 Capital Dushko Bajic, Head of Australian Equities Growth, First Sentier Investors This panel is hosted by Centennial Asset Management's Matthew Kidman. They explore the stocks they are bullish on today, the themes they believe are likely to suffer, and the stocks they recommend investors avoid (or short, if they can) over the months ahead.    This episode is part of our special mini-series of The Rules of Investing, giving you a front-row seat to discussions from Livewire Live 2024, our flagship investor event. Whether you're after big-picture market insights or actionable investment strategies, this series offers exclusive insights to help shape your investment decisions. We hope you enjoy this special 7-part series. We'll return to our regular programming with the next episode of The Rules of Investing. ________________ This series is proudly sponsored by Bell Direct Advantage. Bell Direct Advantage is a premium trading platform designed for active and sophisticated investors. Offering access to Bell Potter research, exclusive IPOs, and advanced trading tools, it's built to give you a competitive edge. Whether you're a frequent trader or a high-net-worth individual trading shares, options, or warrants, Bell Direct Advantage delivers tailored solutions and superior service to sharpen your investing edge. [Find out more here]

Many of the best investing opportunities emerge when you think differently from the herd. This session will feature five high energy predictions that will challenge consensus thinking as inves­tors look towards 2025 and beyond. You'll be hearing from five of Australia's leading investment minds, including: Kellie Wood, Head of Fixed Income at Schroders  Vihari Ross, Portfolio Manager at Antipodes, Bob Desmond, Co-Portfolio Manager and Head of Claremont Global Josh Clark, Lead Portfolio Manager at QVG Capital Matthew Kidman, Chief Investment Officer at Centennial Asset Management.  This episode is part of our special mini-series of The Rules of Investing, giving you a front-row seat to discussions from Livewire Live 2024, our flagship investor event. Whether you're after big-picture market insights or actionable investment strategies, this series offers exclusive insights to help shape your investment decisions. We hope you enjoy this special 7-part series. We'll return to our regular programming with the next episode of The Rules of Investing. ________________ This series is proudly sponsored by Bell Direct Advantage. Bell Direct Advantage is a premium trading platform designed for active and sophisticated investors. Offering access to Bell Potter research, exclusive IPOs, and advanced trading tools, it's built to give you a competitive edge. Whether you're a frequent trader or a high-net-worth individual trading shares, options, or warrants, Bell Direct Advantage delivers tailored solutions and superior service to sharpen your investing edge. [Find out more here]

In this session you'll be hearing a fireside chat with Todd Barlow the CEO of Soul Patts, Australia's oldest listed company. Soul Patts is a diversified investment house often described as Australia's answer to Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway. The company has established an incredible record of dividend payments to shareholders and today you'll be getting an asset allocation masterclass from Todd and hearing about the opportunities he sees in the market today. This session was moderated by James Unger, Head of Corporate Finance and Bell Potter Securities. This episode is part of our special mini-series of The Rules of Investing, giving you a front-row seat to discussions from Livewire Live 2024, our flagship investor event. Whether you're after big-picture market insights or actionable investment strategies, this series offers exclusive insights to help shape your investment decisions. We hope you enjoy this special 7-part series. We'll return to our regular programming with the next episode of The Rules of Investing. ________________ This series is proudly sponsored by Bell Direct Advantage. Bell Direct Advantage is a premium trading platform designed for active and sophisticated investors. Offering access to Bell Potter research, exclusive IPOs, and advanced trading tools, it's built to give you a competitive edge. Whether you're a frequent trader or a high-net-worth individual trading shares, options, or warrants, Bell Direct Advantage delivers tailored solutions and superior service to sharpen your investing edge. [Find out more here]

Artificial Intelligence is surely the hottest topic right now powering returns in stock markets and capturing our attention with its promise of productivity and innovation. But with such spectacular interest and returns I'm sure many investors are wondering if the opportunity has passed.  Our next panel will be picking the eyes out of the AI opportunity. How big is it and where are we in the cycle for this industry? Who will be the winners? And who will get crushed? The panel features: Nick Griffin, Founding Partner & Chief Investment Officer, Munro Partners Jun Bei Liu, Lead Portfolio Manager, Tribeca Investment Partners Jacob Mitchell, Chief Investment Officer & Lead Portfolio Manager, Antipodes This session was moderated by Livewire's Deputy Managing Editor Ally Selby.  This episode is part of our special mini-series of The Rules of Investing, giving you a front-row seat to discussions from Livewire Live 2024, our flagship investor event. Whether you're after big-picture market insights or actionable investment strategies, this series offers exclusive insights to help shape your investment decisions. We hope you enjoy this special 7-part series. We'll return to our regular programming with the next episode of The Rules of Investing. ________________ This series is proudly sponsored by Bell Direct Advantage. Bell Direct Advantage is a premium trading platform designed for active and sophisticated investors. Offering access to Bell Potter research, exclusive IPOs, and advanced trading tools, it's built to give you a competitive edge. Whether you're a frequent trader or a high-net-worth individual trading shares, options, or warrants, Bell Direct Advantage delivers tailored solutions and superior service to sharpen your investing edge. [Find out more here]

In this episode, you'll be hearing a panel exploring a number of big topics dominating conversations around markets right now. From the changing macro backdrop and debate over the merits of public vs private markets to the implications of ageing populations, the energy transition and digital innovation these are Seismic Shifts and we're going to hear about the opportunities they present for investors. The speakers in this session are: Matthew Haup, Lead Portfolio Manager at Wilson Asset Management Srdjan Dangubic, Partner at Five V Capital James Abela, Portfolio Manager at Fidelity Andrew Lockhart, Managing Partner at Metrics Credit Partners You moderator is Livewire's managing editor Chris Conway This episode is part of our special mini-series of The Rules of Investing, giving you a front-row seat to discussions from Livewire Live 2024, our flagship investor event. Whether you're after big-picture market insights or actionable investment strategies, this series offers exclusive insights to help shape your investment decisions. We hope you enjoy this special 7-part series. We'll return to our regular programming with the next episode of The Rules of Investing. ________________ This series is proudly sponsored by Bell Direct Advantage. Bell Direct Advantage is a premium trading platform designed for active and sophisticated investors. Offering access to Bell Potter research, exclusive IPOs, and advanced trading tools, it's built to give you a competitive edge. Whether you're a frequent trader or a high-net-worth individual trading shares, options, or warrants, Bell Direct Advantage delivers tailored solutions and superior service to sharpen your investing edge. [Find out more here]

In this episode, you'll hear from Scott Kleinman, the co-president of Apollo Global Management, as he sits down with Livewire's James Marlay. Kleinman shares his views on why he believes markets are getting ahead of themselves with rate cut expectations, where he sees value across various sectors, and how Apollo is positioning to take advantage of mega trends such as digital transformation, the energy transition, and ageing populations. This episode is part of our special mini-series of The Rules of Investing, giving you a front-row seat to discussions from Livewire Live 2024, our flagship investor event. Whether you're after big-picture market insights or actionable investment strategies, this series offers exclusive insights to help shape your investment decisions. We hope you enjoy this special 7-part series. We'll return to our regular programming with the next episode of The Rules of Investing. ________________ This series is proudly sponsored by Bell Direct Advantage. Bell Direct Advantage is a premium trading platform designed for active and sophisticated investors. Offering access to Bell Potter research, exclusive IPOs, and advanced trading tools, it's built to give you a competitive edge. Whether you're a frequent trader or a high-net-worth individual trading shares, options, or warrants, Bell Direct Advantage delivers tailored solutions and superior service to sharpen your investing edge. [Find out more here]

In this special mini-series of The Rules of Investing, we're taking you inside the auditorium at Livewire Live 2024, our flagship investor event. Whether you're after big-picture market insights or actionable investment strategies, this series offers you a front-row seat to the most valuable discussions from the event. If you're keen to hear from some of Australia's top investors, these episodes will provide exclusive insights that can help shape your investment strategy for the year ahead. We hope you enjoy this bonus 7-part series. We'll be back to our regular programming after this, with the next episode of The Rules of Investing. ................. This series is proudly sponsored by Bell Direct Advantage. Bell Direct Advantage is a premium trading platform designed for active and sophisticated investors. Offering access to Bell Potter research, exclusive IPOs, and advanced trading tools, it's built to give you a competitive edge. Whether you're a frequent trader or a high-net-worth individual trading shares, options, or warrants, Bell Direct Advantage delivers tailored solutions and superior service to sharpen your investing edge. [Find out more here]

Behavioural economics explains why we make such stupid decisions with our money. Unfortunately, the study has found that behavioural biases are very hard to control and, even if you are aware of them, no one is immune from poor decision-making when it comes to both life and our finances.  This is where quantitative or systematic investing comes in - a realm of investing typically reserved for institutional investors like super funds and the ultra-wealthy.  Quantitative investing removes emotion and behavioural biases from investing. Instead, it relies on some of the smartest people in the world to put together hundreds to thousands of signals and data points for a large language model to make decisions. Humans are involved but just for oversight, in case the model does not truly understand a situation. For example, it may not understand that airlines were not a fantastic short-term opportunity amid a significant sell-off during the COVID-19 crash.  This is a far cry from fundamental investing, which relies on a fund manager or investor analysing macroeconomic and stock-specific factors, meeting with management teams, trying out products and services and reviewing a business's balance sheet before making an investment decision of their own.  The gains from quantitative strategies are typically small, but they're consistent over time. You are not going to have years of 10-20% plus outperformance over an index, but equally, you shouldn't experience huge drawdowns either. And over the long term, this small amount of alpha adds up.   Interestingly, Macquarie Asset Management was one of the few firms that saw its funds achieve 100 batting averages - for both the large-cap and small-cap categories - over a 10-year period. This means that these funds, which are all quantitative strategies*, have outperformed the benchmark 100% of the time in every three-year rolling period over the past decade.  So, to learn more about quantitative investing, quantitative ETFs and the major trends shaping ETF markets, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Blair Hannon, ETF Strategist at Macquarie Asset Management.  We discuss some common misconceptions surrounding quantitative investing, the signals that have worked over the last few years, and the magic of compounding over the long term.  Plus, Hannon also shares why he strongly believes that passive investing is not creating a bubble in markets - despite what some of the world's most famous investors (like The Big Short's Michael Burry) would have you think.  Note: This interview was recorded on Tuesday 24 September 2024.  Timecodes  0:00 - Intro  1:54 - Difference between fundamental and quantitative investing  5:28 - Removing the emotion from investing  6:55 - Signals that are used to avoid behavioural biases  8:56 - Do we need human touch on quant funds 10:31 - Common misconceptions of quant investing  14:44 - The signal that has been working over the last year  18:20 - Turnover of stocks in the portfolio 20:10 - The signal that has worked over the long term  21:32 - Why 1% alpha is attractive over the long term  24:38 - Macquarie's batting average scores over 10 and 5 years  27:37 - Why ETF popularity will continue to soar  29:57 - Why active fund managers need to innovate on ETFs 32:50 - Innovation in the US - and what we can expect in Australia  35:08 - Why ETFs aren't the death of managed funds  37:10 - Why passive investment isn't creating a bubble in markets 39:07 - Something that worries Blair about the direction of ETF markets  41:21 - One ETF to hold for the next 5 years if markets were to close Disclaimer:  Product Disclosure Statements and Target Market Determinations for Macquarie ETFs can be found at etf.macquarie.com and should be read before making a decision to invest.  *The Macquarie Australian Shares Fund, Macquarie Australian Equities Fund and the Macquarie Australian Small Companies Fund's investment strategies changed effective 18 December 2017. Until 17 December 2017, the strategies were managed with a fundamental approach. From 18 December 2017, the strategies were restructured such that they are managed with a quantitative, systematic investment approach.

While Warren Buffett's favourite holding time may be forever, the average holding period for a typical investor is now just 5.5 months. In a world where news, analysis and investment ideas are readily available at our fingertips, investors have quickly forgotten the benefits of long-term compounding and instead are focused on the next great stock, driven likely by their fear of missing out.   We've all succumbed to it, there's no point denying it. How many of us jumped on the buy-now-pay-later trend, the lithium trend, the uranium trend, and now, the AI trend, as stocks soared to stratospheric heights? How many of us have attempted to hold on for dear life (HODL) as some of these companies crashed back to Earth?   So, how can you identify the companies that continue to win over the long term? And by long term, I don't mean five-plus years, but 20.   In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Janus Henderson's Josh Cummings outlines what makes a winning long-term stock - a process that has helped the team top the league tables for their consistent outperformance over the last five and 10 years - and provides a few examples.We also take a deep dive into artificial intelligence - and why Cummings believes AI will become even larger, more pervasive, and more impactful on our lives than we could ever conceive of today.   https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/the-secret-to-finding-stocks-you-can-hold-for-20-years   Timecodes 0:00 - Intro 2:16 - The secret to consistent long-term outperformance 3:30 - What the team got right and wrong over the last 12 months 4:38 - The impact of AI on mega-cap tech companies 7:19 - Is there too much "faith" in the AI theme? 9:48 - Is this the death of value investing? 11:58 - What it's like on the ground in the US right now 15:14 - Impact of cumulative inflation on businesses 18:13 - Nvidia's antitrust charges 20:42 - Factors that can help investors identify consistent winners 22:58 - Celebrity CEOs and red flags 25:20 - Should you really HODL? 26:58 - Smaller companies employing disruptive innovation 31:13 - Lessons from the team's meeting with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman 33:49 - Innovation is a scale game - why the big are only going to get bigger 35:01 - What could go wrong with AI (i.e. are we in for an iRobot scenario) 40:22 - Two things investors are getting wrong today 42:36 - Why you should invest in what you know (and trust your gut) 46:45 - One stock Josh Cummings would own if the market closed for 5 years

Nowadays, it's quite easy to get swept up in the negativity around our economic plight. Living costs are a very real concern, as are increasingly unaffordable house prices. But, as Australians, we're also quite fortunate. Our economy has enjoyed an unprecedented run of growth, we're highly educated, we're resource-rich, and we have opportunities – one of which lies in energy creation. As Darren Brown, Co-Managing Director, Renewables Australia at Octopus Investments tells it, there is “a really unique opportunity for Australia to become a superpower in renewable energy”. The conversation highlights the transformative changes in the energy sector, the strategic initiatives underway, and the opportunities for investors in the renewable energy market in Australia. Brown's unique perspective, gained from his experience in both fossil fuels and renewables, provides valuable insights into the industry's evolution and the potential for long-term growth in the renewable energy space. Note: This episode was recorded on 29 August 2024. 

In 1990, then-Treasurer Paul Keating famously said that the country's economic downturn was the “recession that Australia had to have.” Although Keating was responding to a poor GDP print and doing his best to control the narrative, at the start of the rate hiking cycle in mid-2022 most in the market spoke of an impending recession with almost as much certainty. As it stands today, said recession is yet to materialise. So, what happened? And perhaps more importantly, what does it mean for investors? In explaining why a recession hasn't occurred, Sebastian Mullins, Head of Multi-Asset, Australia at Schroders points out that both the Australian and US governments pumped money into their respective economies—something we hadn't seen in a long time. “During the GFC, you had targeted programs to bail out banks and stimulate the economy, but on average, you had a very, very loose monetary policy and very tight fiscal policy to preserve balance sheets – i.e. improve the fundamentals of both corporate and government balance sheets”, says Mullins. “This time around, it's the reverse. We're hiking rates but the government's stimulating aggressively. So that has offset quite a bit of it”, says Mullins. Regarding America, where most of the recession indicators have been flashing red, Mullins adds that the US went into the current downturn un-levered – at least compared to previous episodes. “If you think about what the pillars of the economy are, you have the consumer, you have corporates, and you have the government”, notes Mullins. The US consumer de-levered after the GFC, reducing their amount of debt to GDP, as did corporations. “You'd expect higher interest rates to crack corporates”, says Mullins, but that hasn't happened. And while the government has been hurt by higher rates due to the bigger interest payments on its debt pile, “If the two pillars of the private economy are fine and the corporates are all fine, then there's no recession”, says Mullins. Great, no recession. What about inflation? For Mullins, the inflation conversation depends on how far into the future you look. “So in the short term, inflation's definitely coming down,” says Mullins. As for the next five years and beyond, Mullins believes there are structural forces that will mean inflation could stay above the long-term targets of central banks – although that doesn't have to be a bad thing. “There are more inflationary forces in the system now than they were over the past decade” notes Mullins, adding that “things like fiscal stimulus that's here to stay”. “You're seeing more populous governments come in around the world. You're talking about the election in the US, they're both going to spend.  "It doesn't matter who wins, it just depends on who they spend on. But there's no tea party candidate or fiscal conservative”, says Mullins. Mullins points to other inflationary factors, including de-globalisation, on-shoring, and increased security spending—whether that means military, food, mineral, or cybersecurity. “So all that is to say, we're not saying we're going to 1970-style inflation, but if in the US 2% was the ceiling of inflation for the past decade, we think it's going to become a floor. So, it might be between two to three, maybe two to four [percent]”, says Mullins. So, how are you investing? A potentially higher floor for longer-term inflation seems like a small price to pay following the most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in living memory. If someone offered the current economic and investing scenario back in late 2022 and early 2023 – with equity markets near all-time highs, bonds providing a decent yield, and an absence of recession – we'd all likely take it in a heartbeat. So, as a multi-asset strategist, how is Mullins shaping portfolios in light of macro developments and a seemingly benign backdrop? Find out in this edition of The Rules of Investing, presented by James Marlay. Mullins provides a view on Australian, US, Chinese and Japanese equities, bonds, and Australian vs. US credit. Finally, he outlines the bull case moving forward as well as the biggest risk to the outlook.  Note: This episode was recorded on 27 August 2024.  https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/what-happened-to-that-recession-we-were-promised

In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Livewire's Ally Selby learns about some of the companies that meet these criteria, why Rizzo believes AI will be far more transformative than investors currently think, as well as why he believes that investors are likely to do more harm waiting for a correction in some of these tech winners than a correction itself.  Plus, he shares what he is seeing on the ground in the US right now in terms of economic weakness, the stocks he believes are worth paying up for right now, and how he takes advantage of sell-offs when he holds very little cash.  Note: This episode of The Rules of Investing was recorded on Wednesday 14 August 2024.  https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/why-ai-will-have-a-bigger-impact-on-the-world-than-the-invention-of-electricity Timecodes:  0:00 - Intro  2:10 - Making sense of the volatility in tech stocks  3:11 - This is a healthy bull market correction  4:44 - The true transformational nature of AI  8:11 - Spotting the imposters from the real AI winners 11:06 - There are risks but we are starting to see business acceleration from AI 13:27 - Should you take advantage of sell-offs in AI companies?  15:08 - What Dom is seeing on the ground in the US in terms of economic stability 17:08 - How to identify winning tech stocks  19:53 - How Dom thinks about risk  22:01 - Dom's wishlist of stocks he would own at a cheaper price  24:15 - Stocks it is worth paying up for right now  26:32 - A deep dive into semiconductor stocks and cycles  30:20 - NVIDIA at the point of deceleration and what this means for investors 31:16 - How to take advantage of sell-offs with very little cash  34:19 - One thing investors are getting wrong about markets  34:53 - Biggest lessons Dom has learnt during his career  39:06 - One stock Dom would hold if the market closed for 5 years.