Podcast appearances and mentions of alpha trader

In this episode, we're joined by John White, co-founder of Positive Equity, to unpack what it truly takes to succeed in the high-stakes world of prop trading. Whether you're a beginner exploring how to get into trading or an experienced retail trader looking to take your skills to the next level, this episode is packed with invaluable insights from someone who's been through every stage of the trading journey.John shares his incredible story of getting his start at Geneva Trading in Dublin straight out of college, with no prior trading experience. What drew him in was the promise of a career where your income matches your effort. Over time, John discovered that success in trading doesn't happen overnight. In fact, it takes years of dedication, learning, and adaptation. He explains that it took him at least two years before he felt confident in the markets and even longer before he saw meaningful financial rewards. This is a crucial reminder that prop trading is not a get-rich-quick scheme—it's a profession that demands grit, patience, and constant improvement.One of the most fascinating parts of our conversation is John's breakdown of the trading edge—how traders develop a strategy that works and why that edge can disappear as market conditions change or more people discover the same opportunity. With market volatility, evolving macro trends, and ever-smarter competition, maintaining a profitable strategy requires constant evolution. As John puts it, the market is always moving, and so must you.We also dive into what separates a successful prop trader from someone who eventually drops out. The key traits Positive Equity looks for are strong numeracy skills, competitiveness, and, above all, grit. Trading is full of setbacks. It's easy to enter the markets thinking it's as simple as buying and selling on your phone, but real success requires years of learning, managing your risk, and staying in the game long enough to learn the necessary lessons. As John explains, no one joins the trading floor as an instant success story, and no one wins without putting in the work.For those wondering about the difference between prop trading vs retail trading, John provides some powerful insights. While retail traders often juggle trading with full-time jobs and limited screen time, prop traders have the advantage of being immersed in the markets all day, working within teams, and using advanced tools and risk management systems. This environment provides professional traders with better cost structures, higher-quality research, and the ability to patiently wait for high-probability setups. Retail traders often feel pressure to act within the small windows of time they have, which can lead to suboptimal decision-making.John also shares valuable advice for aspiring traders looking to break into proprietary trading. His top tips? Start reading. Books like Market Wizards and Alpha Trader provide raw, honest insights into the real lives of professional traders, including their biggest mistakes and how they overcame them. He also recommends getting hands-on experience with simulator trading, taking it seriously, and building strong accountability, whether through a mentor, a peer, or even tracking your stats daily. Before risking real money, it's vital to spend the time mastering your process, understanding risk management, and learning how to handle losses.And for those looking for that “hot stock tip”? John keeps it real—Positive Equity's traders aren't focused on long-term stock...

Episode 130: Let's take a deep dive into how the financial markets really work - FOR ALL LEVELS! What makes stocks go up and down? Is inflation over? Where is the recession? Maybe the economy is just stabilizing and normalizing? How much do our biases affect our decision making and keep us from maximizing our investing returns? Can we overcome them? YES!  We seek to answer all those questions and more with featured guest, Brent Donnelly, trader since 1995 focused on currency trading, author of Alpha Trader & several other books, president of Spectra Markets & Spectra School - bridging the gap between theory and real world trading. We talk global macro and dive into leading and lagging indicators you need to know including soft vs hard data. We discuss how to decipher the real data from the noise to avoid confirmation bias. People LOVE Negative News! We concentrate our focus on financial markets and trading equities & currencies with various investing strategies and discuss the importance of market psychology and common cognitive biases that affect our decisions in trading and life. Long live KING DOLLAR - find out why! ➡️Follow Brent on X: https://x.com/donnelly_brent ➡️Visit Spectra Markets: https://www.spectramarkets.com/am-fx/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ For Investment Inquiries and/or to speak to an Investment Advisor at HYDRA WEALTH ADVISORS, please visit: https://www.hydrawealthadvisors.com ✨SUBSCRIBE to The RO Show YT Channel✨ https://youtube.com/@theroshowpodcast https://rumble.com/c/c-5300605 ➡️CONNECT with ROSANNA PRESTIA⬅️ ✨ONE SITE ♾️ https://sociatap.com/RosannaPrestia/ ✨X ♾️ https://twitter.com/RosannaInvests ✨X ♾️ https://twitter.com/TheROShowPod ✨WEBSITE ♾️ https://www.rosannaprestia.com/ THINK Different with Rosanna ©️ 2022-2024

The Art of Trading with Brent Donnelly Trader Chats | April 13, 2023   Reserve your seat for Options Insight's Options Trading Bootcamp on April 29 - 30. Seats are limited so act fast before they run out! https://www.options-insight.com/bootcamp-purchase/   Get a Free Month of Options Insight Right Now when you use the code RV2023 at checkout https://options-insight.com/products/   ↓↓↓   Trader Chats returns with a very special guest, Brent Donnelly. Brent is a highly respected trader and author of Alpha Trader (2021) and The Art of Currency Trading (2019) and the current President of Spectra Markets. Spectra Markets is where retail and institutional traders and investors go for smart, independent, and original financial markets content. Brent joins Imran Lakha, founder of Options Insight, for a fantastic conversation where the sheer breadth of knowledge and experience is hard to replicate anywhere else. We hope you benefit from and enjoy the conversation

Interview recorded - 23rd of November, 2022On todays episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with Brent Donnelly - President of Spectra Markets, an experienced currency, equity and futures trader, and author of two books on trading “Alpha Trader) and “The Art of Currency Trading”.During our conversation we spoke about Key Macro trends Brent is watching, whether we have seen the end of dollar strength (for now), how Brent is looking to position himself and historical periods that this market reminds him of. I hope you enjoy!Buy the books here - Alpha Trader - https://amzn.to/3VdUuKMThe Art of Currency Trading - https://amzn.to/3OxvYSh0:00 - Introduction0:20 - Key macro trends Brent is watching?5:50 - People love the FED trade8:25 - Pullback from Dollar strength and equity weakness?12:50 - Hot property markets 16:18 - Could debt serving risk become an issue in 2023?17:20 - Key data points in the US for recession?21:10 - What historical period does this market remind you of?27:30 - How are you looking to position yourself?38:10 - Any trends that aren't getting enough trend?41:40 - JPY44:47 - One message to take away from our conversation?Brent Donnelly has been trading currencies since 1995 and writing about macro since 2004. He is currently President of Spectra Markets. Brent is the author of Alpha Trader (2021) and The Art of Currency Trading (Wiley, 2019). He writes a widely-read and highly-respected macro and FX daily called AM/FX. Over the course of his career, he has been a market maker, trader, and senior manager at some of the top banks in foreign exchange.He has extensive experience trading currencies, FX options, stock index futures, NASDAQ stocks, and commodities. Brent is a respected macro thinker with the unique perspective of a senior risk taker. He has been quoted by or featured in the Economist, Real Vision, Epsilon Theory, the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Bloomberg, and CNBC.Before joining Spectra, Brent was a senior FX trader at HSBC, head of G10 Spot Trading at Citi New York and global head of G10 FX Trading at Nomura New York. He was also a portfolio manager at a major hedge fund in Connecticut for three years. He created and wrote a cartoon called ‘‘Daft Planet,'' which aired on TV in Canada, and he dreams of one day winning the Man Booker Prize.Brent Donnelly - Website - http://brentdonnelly.com/Twitter - https://twitter.com/donnelly_brent?LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/brent-donnelly-98321187/Spectra - https://www.spectramarkets.com/am-fx/WTFinance -Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Brent Donnelly (@donnelly_brent), president of Spectra Markets, joins Julia La Roche on episode 26. Brent has been trading since 1995 and writing about global macro since 2004. He is the author of “Alpha Trader” (2021) and “The Art of Currency Trading” (Wiley, 2019). He writes a widely-read and highly-respected global macro daily called am/FX. He just published a trader handbook and almanac this week. Throughout his career, he has been a market maker, trader, and senior manager at some of the top banks in the U.S. and a portfolio manager at a major hedge fund. Brent also has a creative side, publishing colorful commentary. He also wrote a cartoon that ran on television in Canada. During this episode, Donnelly shares his macro views and why he's near-term bullish and riding this optimism wave. Donnelley's investment style takes only a one-week to a one-month horizon. Donnelly, who traded during the dot-com bubble burst, shares why we might see something similar to 2001 next year. 0:00 Intro 0:36 Early beginnings trading FX 2:24 Trading and writing cartoons 7:14 Writing critical to trading success 12:31 Daily trading plan 16:20 There's no Fed pivot happening 18:05 Long stocks, short dollar in near-term 19:46 Mortgage resets 21:14 Pain from rate hikes in the U.S. comes later 23:23 Sell rallies in stocks 24:16 Fed losing credibility 28:03 Playing the optimism trade 30:28 Good time for macro 32:00 Tactical trading approach 34:34 Pavlovian buy-the-dip mentality 37:07 Why we might see something similar to 2001 42:00 What breaks things? 43:43 Magazine cover indicator

Brent Donnelly, President of Spectra FX Solutions and author of, "Alpha Trader" and, "Art of Currency Trading", discusses his attraction to currency trading and the mindset needed to succeed in a field that is both art and science.

Brent Donnelly is the President of Spectra Markets and is the author of AM/FX and Alpha Trader. In this episode, I'm joined by Julia La Roche. We discuss with Brent if Bitcoin is an inflation hedge, or is it a hedge against loose monetary policy. ======================= LMAX Digital - the market-leading solution for institutional crypto trading & custodial services - offers clients a regulated, transparent and secure trading environment, together with the deepest pool of crypto liquidity. LMAX Digital is also a primary price discovery venue, streaming real-time market data to the industry's leading analytics platforms. LMAX Digital - secure, liquid, trusted. Learn more at LMAXdigital.com/pomp ======================= The Pod Pro Cover by Eight Sleep is the most advanced solution on the market for thermoregulation. It pairs dynamic cooling and heating with biometric tracking. Go to https://www.eightsleep.com/Pomp to check out the Pod Pro Cover and save $150 at checkout. Eight Sleep currently ships within the USA, Canada, and the UK. ======================= Valour (formerly DeFi Technologies) represents what's next in the digital economy -- providing simplified, trusted access to crypto, decentralized finance and Web 3.0 investment opportunities. Institutions and investors can gain diversified, secure, compliant, and easily tradable access to a diversified set of industry-leading equity products and protocols, through a single stock purchase on a regulated exchange. Currently listed on U.S. (OTC: DEFTF) and Canadian (NEO:DEFI) exchanges. For more information or to subscribe to receive company updates and financial information, visit our website at valour.com =======================

Blockworks is proud to present a new podcast with Alfonso Peccatiello, co-host of “The Macro Trading Floor.” Each week on “Boiler Room,” Alf interviews the top names in finance to help you maneuver markets. In the debut episode, Alfonso is joined by Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets and author of “Alpha Trader” and the AM/FX newsletter. They discuss the recent weaponization of the US dollar and whether this trend will accelerate de-dollarization. Brent also shares some of his medium-term outlooks for FX markets and explains how to position trades around uncertain outcomes. But to hear about that, you'll have to tune in! Read Brent's piece "Death of the dollar" - https://www.macrodesiac.com/death-of-the-dollar/ -- Follow Brent: https://twitter.com/donnelly_brent Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Spectra Markets: https://www.spectramarkets.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:32) Weaponization of The U.S Dollar (07:29) Why Is The Dollar The Reserve Currency (13:50) FX Market Outlook (23:01) Positioning A Short vs Long Term Trade (28:11) Final Thoughts: Trading Tips

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Gabriela Santos, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. Among the topics covered: There are lots of positives going into 2022, says Santos, expecting the pandemic to fade further, inflation to moderate, and growth to remain strong. For now, at least, inflation should prove to be a boon to corporate profits. The only thing holding the JPMorgan Asset Management team from being uber-bullish is the starting point for stocks - it's been a big two years for equities, and valuations are perky as we end 2021. JPMorgan's just-completed Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report looks out to the next 10-15 years, and Santos notes it's somewhat easier to predict returns over this longer period than over the next 12 months. That report sees U.S. equities returning an average of just over 4%. The better opportunities, says Santos, can be found in more reasonably valued Europe and developing markets. This is Alpha Trader's final podcast. It's been a great run over the past two+ years, and we'd like to thank all of our fantastic guests and our sponsor CME Group. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week's Alpha Trader features host Stephen Alpher speaking with Scott Bauer, CEO of Prosper Trading Academy (co-host Aaron Task is off this week). Among the topics discussed: The recent market stumbles probably have a lot more to do with the Omicron variant, rather than the Fed speeding up its pace of policy tightening, suggests Bauer. For now, Omicron is more about cases, rather than serious illness, but it's too early to have a handle on how this plays out. Of that Fed tightening, Bauer isn't too worked up about the central bank's “plan” to maybe hike three times in 2022. That would still leave short rates near historic lows, and even a move in long rates to the 2.5% area shouldn't pose much issue for the economy. While leaning bullish on stocks right now, Bauer isn't trying to hit any home runs thanks to the Omicron wild card. He's been selling volatility on spikes, noting that seemingly every market downdraft of late has been quickly faded (and he's using the subsequent rallies to buy back that vol). Looking into 2022, he's fan of the recently hit big banks, expecting players like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan to do well alongside the continuing strong economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial. Among the topics covered: Speaking ahead of the results of this week's FOMC meeting and after a couple of very speedy inflation prints, Detrick suggests a speedier taper has already been priced in by the markets. Betting on perhaps a more dovish Fed action tomorrow might be something to consider. Looking out to 2022, while markets have priced in three rate hikes, Detrick and team believe there will only be two, with the first move not coming until the second half. Speaking of inflation, Detrick doesn't believe we're in a rerun of the 1970s. Yes, the numbers are ugly at the moment, but market-based signals like nominal bond yields, inflation-protection spreads, and the price of gold suggest there may be a speedy improvement in the inflation outlook. Turning to the markets in 2022, Detrick continues to favor stocks over bonds. He notes that when the S&P 500 is up 20% for the year (which we'll likely be in 2021), it's been up the following year nine consecutive times. And in seven of those instances, the average was up double-digits. Since 1950, the average return following a 20%+ year is 11.5%. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with J.C. Parets, founder and chief strategist at All Star Charts. Among the topics covered: The technician's take on last week's swoon and this week's major bounce in the stock market. The Cliff's Notes: The S&P 500 (SP500) held above its September low of 4,500, setting the stage for the rally. Swooning along with stocks, were cryptocurrencies, including a flash crash as we slept on Saturday morning, which took bitcoin (BTC-USD) down by about 20% in minutes. Not necessarily bearish on bitcoin, Parets prefers those cryptos showing relative strength, among them Terra (LUNA-USD), TerraCoin (TRC-USD), Decentraland (MANA-USD), Axie Infinity (AXS-USD), and Sandbox (SAND). He's got a sizable portion of his trading assets invested in these, and at the moment is earning some whopping yields. While crude oil fell from about $85 per barrel to $65 during November, the Energy Select SPDR (XLE) and the Oil & Gas Exploration SPDR (XOP) barely budged off their highs. That's the sort of bullish divergence Parets loves to see. He prefers the producers (and thus XOP) to the services names, thanks to the producers' relative strength. Two favorites are Chevron (CVX) - at a 52-week high despite the price retreat - and Cheniere Energy (LNG), which might have the strongest technicals of any oil & gas name. Among other nuggets: Buying in hopes of mean reversion is like working in a coal mine, while buying strength is like going to a warm beach. Go to the beach. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking EVs with Pieter Taselaar, founding partner and portfolio manager of Lucerne Capital Management. He's also the CEO of European Sustainable Growth Acquisition Corp. (EUSG), a SPAC which hopes to soon close on its acquisition of ADS-TEC Energy, a German-based company that manufactures EV charging stations that can charge batteries in minutes without putting strain on a city's electrical grids. Among the topics covered: Task and Alpher discuss Fed Chair Jay Powell's surprising hawkishness on Tuesday morning, which helped send stocks sharply lower. They also dig into Jack Dorsey's exit from Twitter (TWTR), and what it might mean for the future of that platform Not an investor in the EV auto manufacturers, Taselaar instead looks for opportunities in companies providing the critical charging and battery infrastructure for the industry. Key to his thesis is the need for fast charging, and - in addition to above-mentioned ADS-TEC Energy - Taselaar is a fan of Wolfspeed (WOLF), and ASML (ASML), who make the semiconductors necessary for the battery chargers. He's also an owner of EVgo (EVGO), a pure EV play which could benefit from the subsidies in the Biden infrastructure bill. Nothing goes in a straight line, of course, and WOLF and EVgo have had rough recent runs. The EV revolution, however, is going nowhere, and Taselaar suggests investors consider adding on dips. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This special episode features a conversation on all things trading with Brent Donnelly, a veteran trader and writer, now with Spectramarkets.com. Brent has more than 25 years of experience trading currencies and other assets with major international investment banks and hedge funds. Brent is a gifted writer who pens daily market thoughts on FX and macro with spectramarkets.com, peppered with insightful comments on market movements and ideas for what may happen next. He has also authored two books, The Art of Currency Trading and Alpha Trader, which offer traders of all levels a roadmap for what successful trading looks like, never shying from describing the hard work that is necessary on all levels, from trader mindset, behavior and money management, to the fundamental and technical expertise. Link to Brent's daily macro letter at spectramarkets.com. Find Brent's two books at your favorite bookseller: The Art of Currency Trading (2019) and Alpha Trader: the Mindset, Methodology and Mathematics of Professional Trading (2021) Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with Jim Iurio, managing director at TJM Institutional Securities. Among the topics discussed: Speaking as crude oil prices (CL1:COM) were jumping despite a coordinated governmental effort to boost supplies, Iurio reminds that it's another entry in the “buy the rumor, sell the fact” mantra. Oil, he notes, was down about $10 per barrel in the weeks leading up to Tuesday morning's announcement of the SPR release. Iurio is short the S&P 500 (SP500) for a trade, noting a recent rise in interest rates and significant deterioration in the average stock even as the market gauge remains close to or at an all-time high. This isn't the “big one,” though, cautions Iurio. A continuation of easy monetary policy should assure that any correction will be a modest one. The question going forward is whether the current fast inflation numbers have put us at an inflection point, i.e. is nearly 40 years of progressively easier monetary policy coming to an end? Iurio isn't so sure we're there yet, but he's keeping a close eye on developments. Iurio remains bullish on not just the price, but the disruptive nature of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and Ethereum (ETH-USD). Of news that some high-profile professional athletes are taking their salaries in bitcoin, he does get a bit worried, saying it reminds him of a supermodel who in 2007 demanded to be paid in euros shortly before that currency's long, steep decline. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Dr. Lacy Hunt, executive vice president of Hoisington Capital Management. Among the topics covered: Hunt and his partner Van Hoisington have correctly remained steadfastly bullish on long-dated U.S. Treasurys ([[TLT]], [[TBT]]) through multiple inflation scares over the past few decades. They remain bullish today despite some scary recent CPI prints, continuing to point out the clear evidence that over-indebtedness in the U.S. will act as a deflationary force. This doesn't mean there won't be quarters of speedy economic growth and occasional gains in inflation, but once the high of whatever government stimulus du jour wears off, economic sluggishness and a pullback in inflation will reassert. Hunt expects the just-passed $1T fiscal stimulus bill to be yet another example - a short bout of higher growth, but ultimately even worse economic performance down the road thanks to the boosted indebtedness. Turning to monetary policy, Hunt notes that growth in the money supply has begun to slow even prior to the Fed's taper, suggesting a coming slowdown in both the economy and inflation. How could this be given that the banks have nearly $1.5 trillion more in reserves than they did a year ago? Banks, Hunt says, are not able to put those reserves to profitable use, so they remain on account at the Fed earning a handful of basis points. As for yesterday's hot retail sales report (for October), Hunt believes a lot of folks - reading stories about the possibility of bare shelves come Christmas-time - pulled their buying forward. More interesting to him is last week's plunge in consumer sentiment, with the sub-index of durable goods purchase expectations falling to one of its lowest reads ever. It suggests to him a serious lack of confidence in the economy. He also takes note of the poor approval numbers for the current administration - prints one would never see were there not major economic concerns. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management. Among the topics discussed: While the Fed has begun to taper and may push through a couple of rate hikes next year, Schutte expects the central bank to be very patient about tightening policy. He's in the “transitory” camp on inflation, noting plenty of slack in the labor market as evidenced by a labor force participation rate that remains quite low. Given the above combined with growing corporate earnings and a 10-year yield in the 1.50% area, Schutte continues to see stocks as the place to invest. The “market” may be expensive in some areas, says Schutte, but it depends where you look. The S&P Pure Growth Index trades at 35x next year's earnings, but the S&P Pure Value Index at just 11x. While there's been good reasons for Growth to outperform to this point, Schutte sees a shift towards areas that are cheaper. Noting the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia both reversed themselves on tightening threats in the last couple of weeks, Schutte isn't seeing any appetite among global central banks to declare war on inflation. Therein lies the risk for the market in future years - that central banks at some point are going to have to really slam on the breaks. That, however, is a question for 2023, or perhaps beyond. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Join Peter as he talks with professional F/X trader Brent Donnelly about his new book, Alpha Trader, and his 20 year career in the industry. He shares insights on what it takes to be an Alpha Trader.

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with David Bahnsen, chief investment officer of The Bahnsen Group, and the author of There's No Free Lunch: 250 Economic Truths. Among the topics discussed: While the energy sector has been red-hot this year, it's hard to say things are frothy, says Bahnsen. He notes yield spreads remain high, price-to-earnings and price-to-cash flow multiples remain low, and stock prices for many exploration and production companies are down 30%-50% from the last time oil was in the $80 per barrel area. He notes Chevron (CVX) just had its best cash flow quarter ever, and Exxon's (XOM) capital discipline during the tough times is paying off in a big way. As he said during his May appearance on Alpha Trader, Bahnsen believes there's no more under-appreciated sector in energy than the midstream space, i.e. the players involved in transporting, storing, and pipelines. Yields are strong, valuations are reasonable, and financial metrics continue to improve. He continues to like Kinder Morgan (KMI) and Enterprise Product Partners (EPD), but his major holding is in the USCF Midstream Energy Income Fund ETF (UMI). A fan of the goal of cleaner energy, Bahnsen is pleased that “grown-ups” like Goldman's David Solomon and JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon have pledged to continue facilitating capital towards fossil fuel producers, as it's just not possible at this time for renewables to fuel the globe's energy needs. As for the current inflation scare, Bahnsen expects it is cyclical, not secular. The overwhelming level of government debt has been, and will continue to be a major deflationary force. This will again be apparent once the economy works through this expansion's supply chain and labor shortage issues. Moving away from the energy sector, Bahnsen is an owner of Merck (MRK) and JPMorgan (JPM), noting healthy and growing dividends for both. Merck has the soon-to-come Covid treatment pill, and the balance sheet for effective M&A ahead of patent cliffs (see the recent Acceleron purchase). JPMorgan, says Bahnsen, is the best-run big bank in the U.S. He reminds of the big dividends the House of Dimon continues to get from its pennies-on-the-dollar financial crisis purchases of Bear Stearns and WAMU. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher chatting with Ben Laidler, global market strategist for eToro. Among the topics discussed: Q3 earnings season has been a big reminder that growth is not dead, says Laidler. He sees upside to his 2022 year-end S&P 500 forecast of 5,050 as markets continue to dramatically underestimate earnings power, and still-low bond yields support perky equity valuations. Markets have already priced in three Fed rate hikes next year. Laidler suspects that's a quicker pace of tightening than what will actually happen, but he reminds that markets often stage a relief rally once the Fed actually commences with rate hikes. Laidler is also bullish on commodities, and thinks oil could head into the triple digits. But what about inflation in that scenario? He's not too concerned, noting how “de-commoditized” Western economies have become. Turning to Bitcoin, Laidler is bullish there as well. The next move higher, he expects, will come from far greater institutional adoption. It's only a trickle at this point, but wider acceptance is inevitable. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This episode of Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Brue Liu, CEO at Esoterica Capital, and portfolio manager of the Esoterica Thematic ETF Trust (WUGI). Among the topics discussed: 5G technology is much more than just an upgrade from 4G, says Liu. If one thinks of 4G as enabling the mobile internet, 5G will allow the digitization of every aspect of our lives - from streaming to smart homes to smart factories to remote healthcare to self-driving cars. Another difference - if 4G was mostly a U.S. phenomenon, 5G is global. The evolution to 5G technology will first be felt in semiconductors as all devices will require upgrades. Among Esoterica's top ten holdings are Nvidia (NVDA), Xilinx (XLNX), Marvell (MRVL), Qualcomm (QCOM), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM). Speaking of the recent crackdown by Beijing on China's large tech companies, Liu says these regulatory developments have been a long time coming. The country's leadership has long felt the tech giants have been extraordinary beneficiaries of hyper-growth, and now it's time to share some of the wealth, says Liu. As recently seen with Meituan (MPNGF), the companies will reach a settlement with the government, agree to changes, pay a fine, and move along. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A special bonus edition of the Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Mike Alfred, founding CEO at BrightScope Digital Assets Data, and a board member at Eaglebrook. Among the topics discussed: Yes it's nice that the current price action in bitcoin (BTC-USD) is bullish, but Alfred urges focus on the long-term. The size of the network will continue to grow, more institutions are buying in (but haven't yet publicly announced), even more institutions are going to have to buy in, and there's no end in sight to federal deficits and central bank money printing. Bitcoin is likely going to seven figures within the next decade, so it doesn't matter too much whether one buys at $60K or $30K, or anywhere in between. Move over FAANG and make room for CHARM. China's banning of bitcoin mining has led to an even greater opportunity for North America-based miners. This so-called CHARM group: Core Scientific (XPDI), Hut 8 (HUT), Argo Blockchain (ARBK), Riot Blockchain (RIOT), Marathon Digital (MARA) now has a larger opening to scale up and build market share. Alfred notes the miners are the only players who can create their own bitcoin, they're hodling onto to all the bitcoin they mine, and their cost of capital is rapidly trending towards zero. Alfred also owns ethereum (ETH-USD), but says it's a very modest amount vs. his allocation to bitcoin. He considers ethereum as more of a venture capital play on some possibly interesting utility uses. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is a truly decentralized, organically-growing monetary network that is continually becoming more valuable. If Bitcoin is successful with potentially billions holding and using it, it doesn't require a whole lot of imagination to see what one of 21M coins might be worth at some point. Could Bitcoin fail? There's a non-zero chance, says Alfred, but as the network grows, the chance of this happening continues to slide. Turning to brokerages, Coinbase's (COIN) stock has had a modestly rough run of it since its IPO, but the action reminds Alfred of Facebook's initial rough post-IPO trade. As Bitcoin grows, and crypto grows, a well-run Coinbase figures to scale right alongside, even if it faces competition on fees from any number of peers. Look at Schwab ... It's doing better than ever, even with $0 commissions. After dithering for years, what is the first Bitcoin ETF that the SEC finally approves? It's a futures-based ETF offered by ProShares which may make for a nice short-term trading vehicle, but is about the last thing any Sats stacker should be interested in. More interesting to Alfred is the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which has begun the work to convert to an ETF. It's trading at a 15%-18% discount that will disappear once the ETF conversion takes place - a pretty decent return should that happen in the next 6-12 months. The train has left the station, says Alfred, speaking of questions about whether the U.S. could somehow ban or halt Bitcoin. There are too many states that have encouraged and are receiving Bitcoin-based investment for any national ban. There is a minor risk, concedes Alfred, that a cabal of powerful governments - think U.S., EU, China, India - get together to severely restrict Bitcoin. Alfred puts the chances at about 1%, but even a move like this would only curtail the size of the network, not kill the crypto. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On the two-year anniversary of the Alpha Trader podcast, hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher welcome back to the show, Bob Iaccino, co-founder of The Stock Think Tank. Among the topics discussed: While the renewable energy movement is a worthy one, the world isn't yet ready to run on sun and wind. The lack of investment in fossil fuels has the globe on the verge of, if not already in an energy crisis. Some believe oil would need to be in the triple digits to put a sizable dent in the economy and corporate profits, but Iaccino believes this is already happening at $80. Iaccino reminds that turning the spigots back on for U.S. shale production isn't as easy as flipping a switch. Even if there were the regulatory appetite to do so (a big if), getting production up and running again requires capital, equipment, labor … all of which are tough to come by at the moment. As far as the short term, Iaccino and team believe the price of oil (CL1:COM) is extended. They've covered their longs and are waiting for a pullback to reload. Turning to stocks, Iaccino is bullish in the medium-term, but expects there will be one more washout in the averages prior to a resumption of the uptrend. He's a bottom-up stock picker and never owns more than a handful of names. Among his holdings right now: Cognizant Technologies (CTSH), Hormel Foods (HRL), Viacom ([[VIAC]], [[VIACA]]), Ford (F), Salesforce (CRM), and Sprott Physical Gold ETF (PHYS). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking first with Mark Minervini, author of several best-selling books, Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard and Think and Trade Like a Champion, among them, and then with Dan David, the founder of short-focused activist-research outfit, Wolfpack Research. Minervini is leading the pack this year in the U.S. Investing Championship in the $1+ money manager category with a whopping 262% gain. Though not a short seller by nature, at least some of Minervini's gains have come from his decision on September 13 to short the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). What led Minervini to short the market and to remain short was his observation of the weakening technicals beneath the averages - among them, 80% of S&P 500 stocks down 10% or more, and just 38% of Nasdaq names above their 200-day moving averages. Minervini made news last week saying that the technicals of the market remind him of the situation prior to the 1987 crash. Those who extrapolate that statement to him predicting a crash, however, are missing the point. What he's trying to say is that conditions continue to favor a correction in stocks, so he's staying short. When the technicals improve, he'll cover and go long. Dan David is perhaps best known as a featured protagonist in 2018's, The China Hustle, a film that documented his work in uncovering fraud in China-based U.S. stock listings. At the root of The China Hustle is that it was legal in China to defraud foreign investors. That remains so today, says David, so bottom line: The financial statements of Chinese companies - from giants Alibaba (BABA) and Baidu (BIDU) all the way down to the smallest of small caps - cannot be trusted. And though David doesn't trade the Chinese megacaps, he assures that the regulatory crackdown on these players is for real. “Thou shall not be bigger than the state,” he reminds. It's all about control, says David, who isn't surprised by China's moves against Bitcoin. A government that doesn't allow its currency to float or guarantee basic freedoms can hardly be expected to sit aside while citizens keep their money off the books. And on Taiwan, David is certain that China will take over/invade at some point, and that the U.S. will be powerless to stop it. Whatever one thinks of Chairman Xi, says David, he's a man who does what he says he'll do … And he's said as much. Turning to active trades, David continues to be profitably short what he considers to be frauds like SGOCO Group (SGOC) and Moxian (MOXC), and a SPAC deal - Skillz (SKLZ) - where he believes the sponsors were too aggressive with their projected numbers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Brent Donnelly has been in and around trading for close to 3 decades and has held major trading roles at investment banks and hedge funds with a strong emphasis on the FX and Global Macro, where he has been involved in both market-making and proprietary roles. Brent started trading in 1995 and has worked at several illustrious firms in the markets, including Citibank, Merrill Lynch, Royal bank of Canada, Lehman Brothers, Graham Capital, Nomura Bank and HSBC. Since 2004 Brent has been writing a brilliant free daily newsletter on the markets called AM/FX – This newsletter is read widely by professional traders across the world inside Investment banks, Hedge Funds, Asset Management Firms, and Even Central banks. Brent has also authored two books: The Art of Currency Trading and his most recent book, Alpha Trader: The Mindset, Methodology and Mathematics of Professional Trading. In this interview Brent tells us about AlphaTrader and talks extensively about trading, markets and what he believes it takes to be a successful trader. This interview pulls back the curtain somewhat on what it's like to be a professional trader, and some of the challenges pro-traders face as they seek to battle the markets within a high pressured trading room environment. You can find out more about Brent on his personal website: http://brentdonnelly.comAlso visit Brent's new venture Spectra Markets, where you can sign up for his free AM/FX Newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.comYou also follow Brent on Twitter at https://twitter.com/donnelly_brent

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Jeff Kilburg, chief investment officer at Sanctuary Wealth. Among the topics covered: What's behind the current market jitters? Is it the debt ceiling debate, concern about tighter central bank policy, soaring energy prices, supply chain worries, China Evergrande? Whatever the reason and whatever the resolutions to the above concerns, all roads appear to lead to easier than otherwise Fed policy, and Kilburg remains bullish. Two regional Fed presidents resigned earlier this week thanks to trading scandals, and as the podcast was being recorded, Chairman Jay Powell's odds of serving another term took a dip when Senator Elizabeth Warren declared him a “dangerous man.”. A lot of this stuff is for show, reminds Kilburg, but it's yet another reason Jay Powell will more or less continue to stand there with a sign saying “buy risk assets.” The velocity of the move higher in long-term rates has shaken some, notes Kilburg, but the absolute level of the 10-year yield of about 1.5% remains historically low. As long as the 10-year rate remains range-bound below about 2%, it should be good for tech stocks. Kilburg and team have been buying the dip in areas like cybersecurity and semiconductors. Though a fan of the reflation trade, and an owner of names like 3M (MMM), Boeing (BA), and Masco (MAS), Kilburg did take profits on most energy holdings in mid-September. Links of interest: Senator Warren: Fed Chair Jay Powell a 'dangerous man' Debt ceiling and inflation in focus at Yellen's and Powell's Senate testimony Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Show from 9/24/21 Wharton Finance Professor Jeremy Siegel talks about the Fed meeting, inflation, tapering, bonds vs equities and more. Then Host Jeremy Schwartz brings on the author of a new book "Alpha Trader" to discuss specific strategies, tactics, and habits that lead to professional trading success.Guest:Brent Donnelly - President of Spectra Markets and author of Alpha Trader.You can purchase his book on Amazon: Alpha Trader: The Mindset, Methodology and Mathematics of Professional Trading For more on Spectra Markets visit their website: https://www.spectramarkets.com/ Follow WisdomTree on Twitter: @WisdomTreeETFsFollow Jeremy Schwartz on Twitter: @JeremyDSchwartz See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with David Trainer, CEO of independent research firm New Constructs, and the author of Value Investing 2.0, a newsletter available on Seeking Alpha's Marketplace service. Among the topics covered: The Evergrande story out of China is naturally worth paying attention to, but it's particularly important during these times of stretched market valuations. The question at hand is whether the Chinese government will step in to ease liquidity concerns. This is likely to happen, but there's no guarantee. Trainer explains his proprietary concept of Earnings Distortion, a systematic alpha-generating calculation of a company's true (vs. reported) results. Among Trainer's favorite picks is Disney (DIS), which is weathering the challenge from Netflix (NFLX) very well. Trainer notes Disney generates massive cash flow from multiple channels, while Netflix is burning through billions. Another favorite is Walmart (WMT) - like Disney, generating billions in cash flow, and also like Disney, weathering the challenge from a sexier competitor (in this case Amazon). Links of interest: David Trainer's Value Investing 2.0 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher discussing the latest macro topics. Technical difficulties kept our guest - RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas - from the recording, but we were able to speak with him offline and relay some of his thoughts. Among the topics: “Team transitory” got a win with Tuesday morning's softer-than-expected inflation report, says Brusuelas, but - with the CPI continuing to run at north of 5% - it's still to early to declare victory. Stocks initially rose on the slow inflation number, but finished the day with losses. Investors may have gotten complacent after what seems like months with no downturn lasting for more than a few hours, but September - so far - has been a return to reality, with the S&P down about 3% in the first couple of weeks of the month. Meanwhile in China, that country's leadership reminded everyone that they can send a sector down sharply at any point. This week it was the casino sector that drew some comments from Beijing, sending some of those players down double digit percentages. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with George Ball, chairman of Sanders, Morris, Harris. Among the topics discussed: Stocks are expensive and the bull market is long in the tooth, but the Fed (or at least Chairman Jay Powell) is showing little interest in tightening policy. While fast growth and perky inflation would seemingly argue for the Fed to move, don't discount that Powell would like to keep his job - tapering and/or higher rates wouldn't be the best career move. What might upset this equation is the Fed having gotten it wrong on “transitory” inflation. Last week's “soft” employment report was notable for a 0.6% rise in average hourly earnings - double what was expected. While one could argue that the taper is priced into stock prices, Ball says higher and stickier than expected wage-led inflation certainly isn't. Nevertheless remaining bullish, Ball prefers “new tech” names that have far greater upside than the FAANG+ players. Among them are MercadoLibre (MELI) and Chegg (CHGG) - both stocks have had astounding gains over the past few years, but the best way to invest, says Ball, is to have the memory span of a goldfish. The market caps of each remain relatively small compared to the market opportunities they have. Bullish on cryptocurrencies, Ball recommends splitting an investment up three ways - one-third in bitcoin (BTC-USD), one-third in ether (ETH-USD), and one-third in Coinbase (COIN). If worried about the competitive threat that Coinbase may face as other exchanges raise funds in IPOs, Ball wouldn't have issue buying a basket of these players instead of just Coinbase. Ball is also a fan of a recently gone-public small-cap biotech, Sera Prognostics (SERA). The company has a test which can determine if a woman is likely to give birth to a baby prematurely. By being able to identify and treat this condition early, the savings - both from a human and cost standpoint - would be enormous. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features host Stephen Alpher talking with Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers (co-host Aaron Task is on vacation this week). Among the topics discussed: “​​Goldilocks is a 68-year-old man in a suit,” or how Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole keynote address managed to please both equity and fixed-income investors. Ahead of the talk, a number of Fed speakers made clear they were in favor of beginning the taper sooner, rather than later. Powell pushed back against that hawkishness, while still suggesting that tapering isn't too far off. With more gains in August, the S&P 500 (SP500) is now on a seven-month winning streak. Past history suggests markets will be nicely higher in six months, but Sosnick reminds that so much depends on the timing of the streak - this time around it's occurring at what may be near the beginning of a Fed tightening cycle. Shorting the VIX at this point in the cycle may be like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller, with upside (of the bet) of a couple of points, but the downside far greater - particularly as we head into what's typically the seasonally volatile period of September/October. The potential of blockchain technology (decentralized ledger) may be as great as that of the Internet, but that doesn't mean the price direction of bitcoin (BTC-USD) has to be a one-way street higher. Similar to Cisco - which had a huge run early in the era, but has underperformed for more than two decades despite its importance for Internet usage - bitcoin's price could languish even as blockchain technology delivers society-changing products. Links of interest: ​​Goldilocks is a 68-year-old man in a suit Blockchain is to the Internet as Bitcoin is to ? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with Brendan Ahern, chief investment officer at KraneShares, whose flagship fund is the $5B AUM KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB). Among the topics covered: Why the fall of Afghanistan - no doubt a serious issue for the Middle East - doesn't necessarily translate into China getting more aggressive with Taiwan There's plenty being lost in translation with respect to the regulatory news coming out of China, says Ahern. Much of what we're seeing - while clunkily handled by Beijing - is no different than much of the regulatory issues faced by the likes of Facebook and Amazon on a regular basis in the U.S. or EU. The result has been a large disconnect between fundamentals (still great) in Chinese Internet players like Alibaba (BABA), Tencent (TCEHY), JD.Com (JD), Meituan (MPNGF), and Pinduoduo (PDD), and the price action (not so great). Links of interest: Why Ray Dalio thinks worries about the China regulatory crackdown are overblown Why George Soros is highly worried about China KWEB's top holdings Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher chatting with Scott Bauer, CEO of Prosper Trading Academy. Among the topics covered: Barring worsening news on the Delta variant or some other unfortunate event, there's little standing in the way of the market continuing to move higher, says Bauer. That doesn't mean investors shouldn't be buying protection, and - thanks to recent low volatility - that protection is relatively cheap at the moment. Recent strong economic growth and inflation prints suggest we're maybe nearing the end of the zero rate regime sometime in the next year, but Bauer believes the market has discounted as much. More important is how to play stronger inflation, and Bauer - who has been long semiconductors (SMH) through their big run of the past few months - believes there's plenty more upside to come. Markets don't always have to make sense, reminds Bauer. U.S. bond yields until recently had been headed sharply lower, but at the same time the dollar was showing plenty of strength. Apparel stocks have been taking off of late, even amid stores about companies extending work-from-home, and chatter about at least some schools continuing with remote learning. And of the dollar (USDOLLAR), Bauer expects it to continue rising - not because its a “bastion of strength” - but because it's being measured against other currencies like the euro and yen that have even larger flaws. Links of interest: Prosper Trading Academy Micron CFO discusses continuing supply chain shortages as semi stocks pull back Apparel stocks are taking off - why the sector looks appealing Listen to or subscribe to Alpha Trader on these podcast platforms: Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Play Stitcher Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial. Among the topics covered: Appearing on Alpha Trader right in the middle of the March 2020 panic, Detrick cooly explained that the market had more than priced in an earnings disaster, making stocks a buy. Fast-forward 17 months, and we're in the middle of what might be one of the best earnings seasons ever. So yes, things are a bit perky right now, but the major structural bull market remains intact, says Detrick, expecting stocks to continue to outperform bonds over the next 6-12 month timeframe The bond bears may have thrown in the towel, but Detrick sees yields creeping higher throughout the rest of the year alongside a still-growing economy and rising inflation expectations. He thinks 1.75% on the 10-year Treasury (vs. the current 1.18%) isn't out of the question As to whether we're entering a new 70s-style period of galloping inflation, Detrick isn't so sure. He notes the continuation of many of the same factors that have held inflation in check - technology and the Amazonization of the economy, to name two - for the last decade. That doesn't mean we won't continue with some strong inflation prints for the next year or two as the economy continues to emerge from the 2020 recession Turning to favored areas, Detrick and team continue to modestly favor value vs. growth for the rest of 2021. And that leads to favoring cyclical sectors like financials, industrials, and materials. Links of interest: This earnings season is an upside record-breaker Detrick's March 10, 2020 appearance on Alpha Trader Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with Mark Dow, author of the Behavioral Macro Blog, and a former hedge fund manager. Among the topics covered: The China regulatory crackdown is clearly not good news for that country's tech names, and suggests not great relations between Beijing and D.C., but it need not be a headwind for additional records for the S&P 500 While it's entirely possible that we've already passed the peak growth phase of the current economic recovery, that doesn't mean solid growth won't continue for several more quarters or years. Along those same lines, Dow believes that inflation may have peaked as well A lot has been made about what the recent big drop in long-term Treasury yields might be saying, but Dow believes that price signals in the government bond market aren't what they used to be. Find out why Dow's explanation of the monetary policy transmission pipes. The Cliff's Notes: It's a closed system, i.e. the Fed's “printing” of money ends doesn't go into the economy, it stays in the Federal Reserve deposits of the banks. It's for this reason that those predicting the next great inflation keep getting it wrong. Links of interest: Behavioral Macro blog The China regulatory crackdown in an fund - The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF Listen to or subscribe to Alpha Trader on these podcast platforms: Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Play Stitcher Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with Blu Putnam, chief economist at CME Group. Among the topics covered: Making sense of the continued decline in long-term yields even as inflation surges Why we've probably already seen the peak in economic growth for this recovery cycle A defense of the Fed's “transitory” inflation argument Alternative data sources like international travel numbers, sports attendance, and restaurant seating might give the first clue about how the Delta variant affects the growth outlook Why modern banking means the link between the money supply and inflation has been irrevocably broken, and ... Why 70s-style wage-push inflation isn't an issue in today's digital economy Links of interest: What does the bond market know as 10-year yield tumbles 10-year Treasury yield drops below 1.2% for first time since February Listen to or subscribe to Alpha Trader on these podcast platforms: Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Play Stitcher Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with Fari Hamzei, the founder of Hamzei Analytics and Timer Digest's Top Timer for the past three, five, eight, and ten year periods. Among the topics covered: Any number of indicators clearly point to stocks in need of at least a modest correction (5%-7%), but the market continues to grind to new records Hamzei is on the lookout for a catalyst that might give the all-clear signal for an aggressive short. What that might be is uncertain, but Hamzei suggests the Robinhood IPO might make a blowoff top event in the same way the Coinbase IPO marked the peak for bitcoin earlier this year. Hamzei is playing his current bearishness by being long put spreads on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), but things are uncomfortable. The question he's wrestling with now: Roll the positions forward, or cut bait? Another consideration is the start of earnings season - Hamzei is mulling whether it makes sense to get a little bit long to take advantage of what should be strong results Task and Alpher mull Tuesday's inflation report which showed a 13-year high for the headline rate (5.4%) and a 30-year high for the core rate (4.5%). The bond market snoozed right through those big prints, with the 10-year Treasury yield remaining near a multi-month low at 1.36%. What gives? Is the bond market discounting an as of yet unforeseen economic slowdown? Or has all price discovery been lost thanks to the Fed's massive monthly asset purchases? Whatever it might be, Alpher reminds that a fast inflation print isn't necessarily a good reason to sell bonds. After all, the previous CPI high came in 2008 amid one of the great deflationary episodes in market history. Links: Hamzei Analytics Bonds snooze, bitcoin slides, gold perky as inflation rises to 30-year high Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Brent is the author of Alpha Trader, and The Art of Currency Trading, and has traded at hedge funds in CT, and big banks like HSBC. Here he shares his secrets that've helped make him successful!

In this episode, Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir welcome FX veteran and author of the book Alpha Trader, Brent Donnelly … Continue ReadingFives Are Even More Round (guests: Brent Donnelly, Kuppy)

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Nancy Davis, founder and CIO of Quadratic Capital, and manager of the Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF (IVOL). Among the topics discussed: No one can be certain of the inflation outlook - be it the Fed's “transitory,” or somewhat more persistent than that, or of the runaway type No matter the outlook, we're all naturally “short” inflation, so should look to have at least some exposure to higher inflation in our portfolios The IVOL holds about 85% of assets in inflation-protected Treasurys (TIP), and uses the remainder of assets to go long fixed-income volatility The benchmark Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index (ETF version: [[AGG]]) has no inflation protection among its holdings, and - through its high allocation to MBS - is actually short volatility The recent rally in Treasurys - which has sent the 10-year yield down to 1.36% - doesn't make a whole lot of sense given strong economic growth and perky inflation. Is a slowdown on the way, or are investors too aggressive in pricing in rate hikes, or have central bank asset purchases erased the idea of price discovery? Why gold is overrated as an inflation hedge Links: The Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF Listen to or subscribe to Alpha Trader on these podcast platforms: Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Play Stitcher Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Scott Redler, chief strategist at T3 Live and the T3 Trading Group. Among the topics discussed: Don't get hurt with opinions, says Redler, a pure technical trader. He keeps his eye on the 8- and 21-day moving averages for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000. When above, says Redler, that means “risk on,” and he'll look to buy individual names with the best technical setups. Redler is unconcerned that equity markets continue to make new record highs even as falling long-term yields might suggest some trouble ahead. For now, says Redler, stocks are unconcerned about what the bond market might be saying. Again - don't get hurt with opinions. At some point it might be an issue, but for now the direction for stocks remains higher. Among recent small- and mid-cap buys thanks to good technical setups are Skillz (SKLZ), Sunpower (SPWR), Churchill Capital (CCIV), and NIO (NIO). Crypto has charts as well, and Redler sees a battle being waged on bitcoin (BTC-USD) around the $30K level. It's fallen below that level a couple of times in the past few weeks, but has quickly bounced. That tells him there's a pretty good chance last week's $28.8K is the lowest we'll see for a few months. Listen to or subscribe to Alpha Trader on these podcast platforms: Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Play Stitcher Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking first with Jim Iuorio, director at TJM Institutional Services, and then with Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management. Among the topics covered: Why Iuorio believes China's crackdown on Bitcoin (and Beijing seems to mean it this time) makes the long-term thesis even more compelling, even as the bulls are likely to experience more pain in the near-term. Last week's modest hawkish surprise from the Fed was probably not that big of a deal, says Iuorio, but it caught a lot of inflation trade longs too far out over their skis. Hence, we saw big reversals in bond prices, gold, commodities, and the dollar, not to mention the banks. It wouldn't surprise Iuorio if Fed Chair Jay Powell - speaking later this week - pushes back against any ideas that he' considering tighter policy anytime soon. “Investment success in this expansion is likely to be the result of ignoring recent history,” says Brent Schutte, as a combination of fiscal and monetary policies will shift concern about deflation and sluggish economic growth to inflation and speedier growth. Schutte also believes that markets are making a bit too much about the FOMC meeting last week. The “dots” may have been shuffled around a bit, but there's been no hint of any imminent policy change. Whether one agrees with it or not, markets are de facto part of the Fed's mandate these days, says Schutte. Ultimately, that's going to have the central bank well behind the curve on inflation, and that's going to be good for stocks - particularly the cyclicals, value names, and small caps. Listen to or subscribe to Alpha Trader on these podcast platforms: Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Play Stitcher Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with Sylvia Jablonski, co-founder and CIO of Defiance ETFs. Among the topics covered: The conundrum of falling long-term Treasury yields as inflation moves higher Jablonski's expectation that the inflation scare will be transitory, and won't derail the continuation of the reopening trade Why the recent underperformance of FAANG names like Apple and Amazon provides a great buying opportunity for long-term oriented investors Her take on Paul Tudor Jones calling the current state of fiscal and monetary policy “batsh*t crazy,” and where she thinks the might be the best way to play the inflation trade Why Jablonski thinks cryptocurrency might be a generational opportunity, and she holds Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and Ethereum (ETH-USD) in her personal portfolio. Listen to or subscribe to Alpha Trader on these podcast platforms: Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Play Stitcher Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research. It doesn't take too long of a memory to remember the days when then-Fed Chair Janet Yellen was none too pleased about President Trump sticking his nose into monetary policy. Now that Yellen has moved to the Executive Branch (as Treasury Secretary), why does she think it's okay to continue to opine on Jay Powell's business, asks Bianco. Of her latest comments about higher interest rates being a good thing for the economy, Bianco isn't so sure. It depends why they're rising, says Bianco. If it's due to wholesome growth, that's not so bad for the economy or stocks. But if due to bondholders demanding higher rates to compensate for higher inflation, the stock market might not react so nicely. Politics aside, current Street thinking says the Fed is going to use the Jackson Hole confab in late August to lay the groundwork for the taper to begin, with rate hikes to maybe start in the second half of 2022. Bianco questions that consensus. He's keeping his eye on the 10-year Treasury yield. If an inflation scare forces long rates higher, it could force the Fed's hand a lot sooner than that. Of his recent great interest in the promise of cryptocurrencies, Bianco takes us back to the days of Web 1.0 - peer-to-peer, decentralized. That was quickly supplanted by Web 2.0 - the rise of the great centralized platforms like Amazon, Facebook, Netflix, and Google. Web 3.0, says Bianco, will be a return to decentralization thanks to the power of blockchain technology. It's a fascinating discussion, with plenty more, including why Web 3.0 may not be kind to the above-mentioned (and other) mega-cap tech names, and why central bank digital currencies could be a major threat to the legacy commercial banking system. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Bob Iaccino, co-portfolio manager of The Stock Think Tank, and host of The Market Think Tank. Talking as oil (CL1:COM) jumps 3% to a new cycle high, a bullish Bob Iaccino says demand for crude is rising a lot faster than OPEC is willing to supply it. With the American shale boom not coming back anytime soon, the cartel knows it's the marginal supplier, and is only going to drip out as much oil as is necessary. Speaking of those American supplies, Iaccino takes note of restrictive drilling/exploration policies of the Biden administration, as well as the growing power of the ESG movement, which last week took down a couple of board seats at Exxon Mobil (XOM). Of possible crude-related investments, Iaccino reminds that when he's bullish on oil, he buys oil. The correlation between the energy sector and crude isn't always one-to-one, and it would be highly frustrating to be right on oil and watch energy equites not do a whole lot. Zooming out to the larger inflation picture, Iaccino suspects the Fed will be proven wrong over its insistence that currently perky price levels are transitory. While commodities may go up and down in price, the cost of labor is far stickier. The wage hikes we've been seeing - Bank of America lifting its minimum wage to $25 per hour is but one example - aren't going to be given back. Ultimately, they're going to feed through into the price level. There's plenty more, including Iaccino's view on whether the dollar is going to continue its downtrend, and what stocks he's buying (non-energy-related, of course). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Henry Blodget, co-founder and CEO of Insider, Inc., and a former top-ranked Internet stock analyst. Blodget was pitched an investment in Bitcoin (BTC-USD) all the way back in 2011 (price then was about $80 per coin). His conclusion then was that Bitcoin was the perfect asset for a speculative bubble - finite supply, complicated, hard to understand, and with price determined not by any normal valuation metric, but instead completely by supply and demand. Thus, you’ve got downside of “only” 100%, and an upside not limited to any valuation benchmark - $100K per coin, $1M per coin, $10M per coin? Why not? One thing that’s changed since 2011 … Back then, Bitcoin’s backers talked about it as a new type of money or currency. No one really makes that argument anymore. Instead bulls talk about a store-of-value, or a better gold. So don’t expect Bitcoin to disappear, says Blodget. Like gold, it will have its believers for a very long time. But also like gold for very long periods, an investment in Bitcoin may prove to be a dud. Blodget came to some level of notoriety during the dot-com bubble, and he’s seeing some similarities now. In particular, the rolling speculative bubbles of the past year are looking very familiar to him. Checking valuations, he suspects equity returns will be pretty lame over the next decade. However, he would advise against trying to time the peak. Harking back to the mid-late 1990s, there were any number of what appeared to be bell-ringing tops, but the bull market kept getting bigger. There’s plenty more, including Blodget’s view of the outlook on Amazon (AMZN) today, and his thoughts on last week’s mammoth deal for AT&T to sell certain WarnerMedia assets to Discovery. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with David Lebovtiz, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. With the market coming off its worst week in three months, the inflation question is atop many investors’ minds. Lebovitz is willing to agree at least in part with the Fed that the current inflation scare is transitory - a supply/demand “mismatch” as the economy rapidly emerges from the pandemic - but he believes the wage pressures we’re seeing now may prove stickier than the central bank anticipates. Bottom line: While the Fed’s forecasts are probably too dovish, the market’s are far too hawkish in an expectation of a rate hike in 2022. The Fed, says, Lebovitz remains laser-focused on jobs, and as long the unemployment rate remains elevated, expect them to stick with the “not even thinking about thinking about raising rates message” language for quite a while longer. What that means for the markets is anyone’s guess, of course, but Lebovitz reminds that each year brings an average 14% correction at some point, so it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect the current downturn to run into the double-digits. Still, with earnings growth expected to be about 50% this year and the Fed unlikely to all of a sudden turn hawkish, it’s hard not to see the markets regaining their footing later in 2021. There’s plenty more, including what sectors are set to benefit most from the current environment, and why Lebovitz is quite a bit more constructive on Bitcoin than some of his JPMorgan colleagues. Listen to or subscribe to Alpha Trader on these podcast platforms: Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Play Stitcher Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with David Bahnsen, founder, managing partner, and chief investment officer at The Bahnsen Group. Speaking shortly after the cyberattack on the Colonial Pipeline, Bahnsen says the news speaks to the need for a robust, voluminous, highly effective, and technologized pipeline system to transport oil and gas in the U.S. He notes that the publicly traded pipeline owners are catching a bid on the Monday morning following the weekend attack - and this follows on the best quarters in years for those operators. Bahnsen says that those interested in clean energy should also be pipeline fans, reminding that most of the product that flows through pipelines is liquified natural gas. To the extent that pipelines allow the use of natural gas instead coal, that lowers carbon emissions. Getting to investing in pipelines, Bahnsen says many of the weak operators have been weeded out in recent years, leaving a more high-quality field today. His two favorites are Enterprise Product Partners (EPD) and Kinder Morgan (KMI). Both are among the larger pipeline players, offering not just dividend growth, but also excellent dividend coverage, i.e. payouts are easily covered via free cash flow, rather than the balance sheet. For those who prefer ETFs, Bahnsen is a fan of the recently-launched USCF Midstream Energy Income Fund ETF (UMI). Turning to interest rates, Bahnsen recently warned about the Japanification of America. That means a number of things, but mostly that the government’s policy of loading debt on top of more debt to keep the economy afloat is not a recipe for an overheating economy and inflation, but instead is a recipe for continued sluggish growth, deflationary conditions, and a continuation of the secular bond bull market. Bahnsen expects the Fed to continue with ZIRP and other extraordinary measures for years to come, but Bahnsen doesn’t anticipate that to be any more effective at breaking the deflationary trap than the BOJ’s efforts of the last three decades. Listen to or subscribe to Alpha Trader on these podcast platforms: Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Play Stitcher Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. “The risk of a larger pullback is growing even though [sentiment] indicators remain mostly neutral,” says Frederick, who has taken notice of the remarkable similarities between the post-Covid and post-financial crisis bull runs. If form holds, we’re very close to the same point in 2010 at which a 16% correction took place. While Frederick doesn’t expect nearly that large of a downdraft in stocks this time around, today’s markets - with new record highs hit almost every day - are vulnerable to a move lower. Longer-term, Frederick remains bullish. He reminds of last week’s personal income/savings report showing personal income up 21% thanks to stimulus checks, but spending ahead just 4%. That leaves a lot of money currently sitting idle and waiting to buy any dips. What might derail the bull market is a rise in inflation forcing the Fed’s hand far quicker than the currently promised 2023. While Frederick acknowledges the current economic boom and price pressures, he’s on board with the Fed’s description of “transitory.” Covid, he says, has caused massive supply disruptions - just look at the large number of ships sitting in the waters outside West Coast ports. This too shall pass, he says, and with it will be the current inflation scare. There’s plenty more, including a discussion of what current volatility and put/call readings are telling us, crypto, and why the collapse of the a number of mini-bubbles is a healthy thing for the broader market in the long term. Listen to or subscribe to Alpha Trader on these podcast platforms: Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Play Stitcher Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher chatting first with Ben Laidler, global markets strategist at eToro, and then with stock trader Mark Minervini, author of best-selling books Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard and Think and Trade Like a Champion, among them. Markets continue to underestimate the growth surprise in the U.S., says Laidler. Continual surprises on the upside for the economy should be good for earnings, and good for stock prices moving forward. Strong economic growth and rising inflation usually means the Fed coming into play sooner, rather than later, but Laidler suspects not this time, as full employment remains a ways off. There’s also been some large recent inflation prints, but Laidler reminds these are comped to the extraordinary weakness of one year ago, and the Fed has made clear it’s willing to tolerate “transitory” inflation stronger than the 2% target. “Never buy the numbers, never buy the story,” says Mark Minervini, “unless it’s confirmed by the technicals.” The result of this discipline has Minervini usually buying stocks in uptrends, near 52-week highs, and with at least the appearance of being expensive. As for where’s he’s seeing this sort of setup currently, Minervini mentions Yeti (YETI), PayPal (PYPL), and Duluth Holdings (DLTH). Maybe most interesting from the talk, Minervini says trading is the same today as when he started in the business several decades ago. Yes, there’s the rise of technology and zero commissions, but chart patterns and setups today look exactly like they did in 1980s, and for that matter look just like they did in the 1920s or the 1880s. The reason: Human nature never changes, no matter the era and no matter the market. Listen to the full forty minutes for plenty of great insights from these two market veterans. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week’s Alpha Trader features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Jim Iurio - director at TJM Institutional Services and a CNBC contributor - making a return appearance on the podcast. It’s time to start measuring the dollar (USDOLLAR) differently, says Iurio, noting most forms of the dollar index more or less gauge the greenback vs. other flawed currencies like the yen or euro. Nobody would be talking about dollar strength, he says, if the dollar index had a significant weighting in something like Bitcoin (BTC-USD). And of bitcoin - which tumbled nearly 20% in minutes over the weekend on some pretty thin news - Iurio is a fan, but suspects we could see a 50% drop at some point when the U.S. government decides it wants to try and squelch the dollar’s competition. Turning to interest rates, the 10-year Treasury yield is down about 20 basis points in April despite surging equity markets, and way stronger than expected prints for non-farm payrolls, ISM, retail sales, and CPI. What gives? Iurio notes that at 1.75% or so, U.S. long-end yields are a relatively attractive investment given how much negative-yielding developed-world sovereign debt is out there. He also reminds that bond bears - having made a few dollars - were prudently trimming bets just in case the Fed decided to step in and announce yield curve control. There’s plenty more including a discussion of lumber’s roaring bull market, why identifying a bubble doesn’t make you any money, and why the recent drop in volatility makes it a good time to buy option protection. Listen to or subscribe to Alpha Trader on these podcast platforms: Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Play Stitcher Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking asset allocation with Phil Camporeale, portfolio manager with JPMorgan Asset Management. Fed Chair Jay Powell has been “unbelievably consistent” in his dovishness amid the panic, says Camporeale, expecting no imminent policy - or even communication - changes out of the central bank despite what’s been a raft of strong economic prints of late, and what’s likely to be whopping 9% GDP growth in Q2. Wage pressure will be necessary to make perky inflation numbers anything more than transitory, says Camporeale, but despite some impressive job gains, the unemployment rate remains elevated and labor force participation rate under serious pressure. With all that unused labor sidelined, it’s hard to imagine the sort of wage-push inflation that might put the Fed on alert. It adds up to Camporeale and team remaining overweight stocks vs. fixed income, overweight cyclicals like financials (XLF), industrials (XLI), and energy (XLE) vs. big-cap tech, overweight cyclical economies like the U.S., Europe, and Japan, vs. tech-dominated emerging markets, and equal-weighted market indexes vs. cap-weighted indexes. There’s plenty more, including what areas of fixed income Camporeale is allocating money to, why he’s not sold on Bitcoin as an appropriate diversifier for his portfolios, and the lesson Jay Powell learned (and won’t forget) from late 2018. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with Peter McNally, Global Sector Lead, Industrials, Materials & Energy at Third Bridge. Speaking a few hours after the OPEC decision to gradually boost production in coming months, McNally notes oil (CL1:COM) inventories have been falling since early last fall, thus making the OPEC move a logical one. Even with the boosted production, McNally expects inventories to continue to fall through Q2. As for prices, McNally says since supply is being so well-managed, it’s all about demand. If global economies continue to reopen, crude could be headed to $70, but if the renewed lockdowns currently taking place in parts of Europe become a trend, oil might retreat back to $50.  But what about the potential of more U.S. supply coming online? It’s not as easy as flipping a switch, reminds McNally. He expects it would take three months of oil in the $60s, and then another six months after that to restart much of the domestic drilling that was lost over the past year. There’s plenty more, including why gasoline prices might rise even if oil prices flatten out, whether Deere (DE) is now a space-exploration company, and an early take on possible winners/losers from the president’s multi-trillion dollar stimulus proposal. Listen to or subscribe to Alpha Trader on these podcast platforms: Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Play Stitcher Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices