Podcast appearances and mentions of alfonso peccatiello

Alfonso Peccatiello built a following of 500,000 on LinkedIn by doing something radical – by being a real, authentic human in the fund world. And that authentic social presence helped him close investment deals for his new hedge fund, Palinuro Capital. Alfonso's story is proof that it pays to challenge the status quo and to put people (and connections) first – even in a numbers-obsessed industry. Want the full story? Join Alfonso and Stacy as they discuss:Alfonso's backstory: How a car accident sparked his obsession with creating success on his own terms Why he's never afraid to repel the wrong investor How his willingness to repel, both on social media and in meetings, has helped him attract more of the right investors The lesson he learned as a $20B bond manager that has served him most as an entrepreneur (spoiler alert, it wasn't an investing technique) More About Alfonso PeccatielloAlfonso (Alf) Peccatiello is the CIO of the global macro hedge fund Palinuro Capital. Alf was born in Southern Italy, roughly 1,000 km away from the closest financial center, yet his dream was to run his own hedge fund. To get there, he had an idea: share macro analysis and frameworks with the world through his research firm, The Macro Compass, first, establish relationships, and only after spinning out his macro hedge fund. After scoring the largest asset managers in the world as clients of his research, here we are: his global macro hedge fund, Palinuro Capital, is ready to launch in January 2025. As a proper Southern Italian, Alf stands by three culinary rules: no cappuccino unless it's breakfast, no pineapple on pizza, and never break pasta in pieces!Want More Help With Storytelling?  +  Subscribe to my newsletter to get a weekly email that helps you use your words to power your growth: https://www.stacyhavener.com/subscribe  - - -Make The Boutique Investment Collective part of your Billion Dollar Backstory. Gain access to invaluable resources, expert coaches, and a supportive community of other boutique founders, fund managers, and investment pros. Join Havener Capital's exclusive membership - - -Make The Boutique Investment Collective part of your Billion Dollar Backstory. Gain access to invaluable resources, expert coaches, and a supportive community of other boutique founders, fund managers, and investment pros. Join Havener Capital's exclusive membership

Alfonso Peccatiello's (also known as MacroAlf on X) approach to the financial markets is rooted in macroeconomic insights, identifying market imbalances, and disciplined risk management. Having managed a $20 billion fixed-income portfolio, Alf has seen firsthand how understanding market dynamics and timing can unlock significant value. His strategies focus on spotting crowded trades, leveraging market dislocations, and carefully sizing positions to maximize returns while minimizing risk. About Alfonso Peccatiello: Alfonso is the founder and CEO of The Macro Compass, a firm dedicated to democratizing access to professional macro analysis, tools, and portfolio strategies. Leveraging his extensive experience managing large institutional investment portfolios, The Macro Compass provides unparalleled financial education, unique macroeconomic insights, and actionable investment strategies. Prior to launching The Macro Compass, Alfonso served as the head of investments for ING Germany, overseeing a $20 billion portfolio. He also launched a discretionary global macro hedge fund, Palinuro Capital, in 2024. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jerome Powell and the Federal Reset is about to cut rates, but the question on everyone's mind is… What happens next? Alfonso Peccatiello, known as "Macro Alf," is a macroeconomic analyst and investment strategist and he's joining the pod to help us figure this out. - Are these rate cuts just in time or too little too late? - Is the Fed cutting by 25bps or 50bps? - Will we get a recession or the soft landing the FED is hoping for? - What will happen to crypto assets? We discuss all this and more with Macro Alf, one of the top minds in macro out there. ------

Alfonso Peccatiello joins us for a compelling discussion on today's challenging macroeconomic environment. Alongside my co-host Cem Karsan, we explore the impacts of massive debts, weak public sector balance sheets, and rising wealth inequality. We delve into how polarized electorates and global economic fragmentation are reshaping policies, discussing the economic implications of new tariffs, a weaker Dollar, and the prospects for Gold and Bitcoin. Alfonso shares his insights on rising interest rates and inflation, emphasizing the crucial role of central bank policies in shaping market dynamics. We also touch upon the potential impacts of geopolitical tensions and speculate on the effects of possible future scenarios, like a Trump presidency, on the global economy.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Alfonso on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 01:45 - The impact of rising rates and inflation on the global economy10:29 - Inflation expectations and the Trump trade18:38 - What kind of inflation are we dealing with now?27:10 - What caused a change in MacroAlf's view on inflation34:16 - It's all about getting the distribution right46:26 - Alf's perspective on the U.S. Election51:20 - What will a win for Trump mean for the global economy?55:38 - Could the U.S. lose their AAA rating?01:02:31 - A "Golden" ideaCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All...

In this episode, Alfonso Peccatiello, a renowned macro investor, joins the ReSolve team to delve into the macro end game, the impact of leverage on the financial system, and the potential paths forward. They also discuss the role of politicians in managing fiscal interventions and the increasing volatility in the macro environment.Topics Discussed• The concept of the macro end game and the unsustainability of the current financial system• The role of leverage in offsetting dwindling structural growth and its implications for the global economy• The impact of central banks' decisions to stimulate economic growth by lowering interest rates• The wealth illusion effect and its implications on the U.S. economy• The potential paths forward considering the high levels of debt and low interest rates• The shift from anti-cyclical to pro-cyclical use of fiscal policy by politicians• The need for a global macro framework in asset allocation considering the current high-leverage, high-interest rate environment• The launch of Alfonso's global macro hedge fund and its strategy to navigate the increasing macro volatilityThis episode is a must-listen for anyone looking to understand the complexities of the global financial system, the role of leverage and fiscal policy, and strategies to navigate the increasing macro volatility. Alfonso's insights provide valuable strategies for navigating the uncertain financial landscape and understanding the potential paths forward.This is “ReSolve's Riffs” – published on YouTube Friday afternoons to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

The Fed is "cutting away as much uncertainty as they can" says Alfonso Peccatiello. The author of "The Macro Compass" details the latest Fed Put and why he's starting a hedge fund now. Plus, why using probabilities might be a better overall approach to understanding the Fed.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:24) Debt Service Ratio In U.S. Means Higher Interest Rates Haven't Caused Interest Expense To Skyrocket (02:37) The "Higher Interest Rates Are Stimulative" Argument Has Gone War Too Far (06:45) Outside Of The U.S., Higher Interest Rates Already HAVE Had A Big Effect (08:46) Private Debt, Not Public Debt, Is The Cause Of Most Modern Financial Crises (11:23) Eurozone Countries Can't Print Their Own Currency The Way A Monetary Sovereign Can (14:04) Is Government Deficit The Surplus Of The Private Sector? (21:43) VanEck ad (22:50) Making Money And Being Right Are Often Different Things (25:13) Is Private Sector Investment "Crowded Out" By Government Borrowing? (26:51) The Four Factors That Impact Interest Rate Sensitivity Of An Economy (29:53) U.S. Recession Risk Is Underpriced By Interest Rate Futures Market (32:28) If Nominal GDP Comes In Below Consensus, Stocks Could Rally (Rather Than Sell-off) (37:16) Macro Carry Strategies (42:52) The Case For A Bull Steepener (Short-Term Yields Fall More Than Long-Term Yields) (44:45) Weighing Probabilities Of Soft Landing vs. Recession vs. No Landing __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Don't miss out on today's insightful conversation with Daniela Cambone, as Alfonso Peccatiello, founder and CEO of The Macro Compass, delves into the critical issues surrounding the amounting national debt, the devaluation of the U.S. dollar, and the rising trajectory of gold. Questions on Protecting Your Wealth with Gold & Silver? Schedule a Strategy Call Here ➡️ https://calendly.com/itmtrading/podcast or Call 866-349-3310

Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of the Macro Compass, discusses the macro view of the current market and investor expectations.  He challenges the narrative of a structurally stronger US economy and presents a contrarian perspective. Peccatiello highlights the ambiguous data and warning signs in the economy, particularly in relation to China's deleveraging process and the spillover ripple effects on other economies.  Peccatiello emphasizes the importance of portfolio construction and diversification to protect purchasing power. He concludes by sharing his background and the launch of a macro fund. Takeaways Investors are adjusting their expectations based on the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates fewer times than initially anticipated. The prevailing narrative of a structurally stronger US economy may overlook the tightening of financial conditions and the potential spillover effects from China's deleveraging process. The data is ambiguous, with some parts of the economy showing signs of slowing down while others remain resilient. Portfolio construction should focus on diversification and protecting purchasing power, considering assets that are uncorrelated to one's job and the overall economy. Links:  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/macroalf The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.org/ Timestamps 00:00 Introduction 00:22 The macro view 03:08 Prevailing narrative of a stronger US economy, ‘party like it's 1995' 05:30 Alf's contrarian narrative 08:54 Ambiguous data and warning Ssgns 11:42 Spillover effects from China 15:41 Possible recession and risks 27:14 Conclusion

Today's guest today is Alfonso Peccatiello but you may know him as Alf! He's the Founder & CEO of The Macro Compass, which provides financial education, macro insights and actionable investment ideas. In today's episode, Alf gives a masterclass on the bond market. He talks about Dr. Yield Curve and how yield curve inversions are related to recessions. He also talks about where he sees opportunity in the global equity markets, specifically emerging markets.  As we wind down, Alf shares some hot takes that most of his peers would disagree with, and you don't want to miss what he says.   ----- Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Sponsor: AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. For more information, please visit acretrader.com/meb Sponsor: Today's episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world's largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here. Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this discussion, the ReSolve team is joined by Alfonso Peccatiello, financial analyst, to discuss the current state of the economy, the impact of Biden's stimulus, and the intricacies of investing in the current financial landscape. They delve into a wide range of topics, providing valuable insights for anyone interested in understanding the complexities of the financial markets.Topics Discussed• The impact of Biden's stimulus on the economy and how it has helped the economic indicators pick up again• The current state of growth, inflation, and the central bank reaction function• The potential impact of fiscal stimulus on the economy and the concept of ‘macro lags'• The influence of interest rates on the economy and the different scenarios that can occur• The current state of the housing and labor markets in response to rising rates• The interpretation of the recent US GDP print and the consensus on future growth• The importance of surprising markets and investing in assets that benefit from this surprise• The concept of a 'Forever Portfolio' and how to achieve it using ETFs• The importance of sizing in portfolio construction and how to balance attackers and defenders• The role of commodities and the Dollar in a diversified portfolio• The concept of allocating for diversity and the importance of tracking error in portfolio managementThis episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the current state of the economy, the impact of fiscal policies, and the strategies to navigate the uncertain financial landscape. Alfonso Peccatiello provides valuable insights into the intricacies of investing and portfolio construction, making it an enlightening discussion for both new and seasoned investors.This is "ReSolve Riffs" – published on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.*ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

“We are entering a period when over the next six to nine months something could go wrong and historically, it's when the yield curve steepens,” says Alfonso Peccatiello, founder and CEO of The Macro Compass. He explains that if the steepening continues, it will cause serious damage to equity markets and the economy because "the inversion of the yield curve is a leading indicator of a recession.” He believes it's likely that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates, but it will keep the federal-funds rate above the level of inflation for 24 to 27 months. “That's what worries me... They are not talking about cutting rates even if inflation slows down," he says. And he stresses that the impact of the Fed's aggressive rate-hike policy hasn't settled into the economy. “We're entering the periods where the macro lags are more likely to kick in because the curve has been inverted already for 17 months and it's now steepening back,” he says. Finally, he advises investors to decrease exposure to equity markets and invest in treasuries. ➡️ Watch Here

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Alfonso Peccatiello Founder & CEO of The Macro Compass joins the show for a discussion on the U.S bond market sell-off and it implications for broader markets, both domestically & internationally. Weighing sentiment, risk/reward & economic signals, Alfonso assesses if the current sell-off is justified, or is the trend about to reverse and provide an attractive opportunity to go long bonds? To hear all this & much much more, you'll have to tune in! -- Sign up to The Macro Compass bond course & use the code "Macro20" for a 20% discount: https://www.themacrocompass.com/courses/#bond-market-course -- Follow Alfonso on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:32) The Bond Market Sell-Off (11:38) Testing Bond Market Sentiment (21:16) What Could Go Wrong Being Long Bonds? (27:37) Bond Market Term Premium (35:05) The Best Risk/Reward Is Short Equities (38:36) The Real Weakness Is In Europe (46:28) The Dollar Wrecking Ball (51:00) Understanding The Yield Curve: Bear Steepening (54:58) Supply & Demand In The U.S Bond Market (58:46) Bank Bond Buying & Interest Rate Hedging (01:17:40) Bear Steepening During An Inverted Yield Curve (01:23:16) Will Bonds Continue Selling Off Until Something Breaks? (01:28:47) Are European Banks More Resilient Than U.S Banks, Or Not? (01:35:00) The Macro Compass Bond Market Class & 20% Discount -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

Follow Forward Guidance On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3Y0oueY Follow Forward Guidance On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3hXQu2F Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX -- Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass, returns to Forward Guidance to discuss why there's no U.S. recession as of yet, how long is the lag of rate hikes' effect on the economy, and why bonds haven't performed well despite a rapid fall in inflation. Jack and Alfonso debate whether central banks print money, and Alfonso poses a spirited challenge to the predictive power of liquidity (bank reserves) on risk assets. Filmed on July 12, 2023. -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow On The Margin on Twitter https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ The Macro Compass: https://t.co/zmbDLZ99iN -- Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Use code PODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can't-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) Introduction (00:33) The Recession That Didn't Show Up (11:48) How Big Is The Tightening of Credit Availability? (20:33) Is Quantitive Easing (QE) "Money Printing"? Jack & Alf Debate (30:12) Money Printing Type #1: Fiscal Deficits (39:13) Money Printing Type #2: Bank Lending (47:20) Money Printing Type #3: Non-Bank Lending (50:37) Can "Liquidity" Explain Market Returns? Alf Says No! (01:02:01) Why Haven't Bonds Performed As Inflation Has Fallen? (01:07:51) When Recession? — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance or On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass, returns to Forward Guidance to discuss why there's no U.S. recession as of yet, how long is the lag of rate hikes' effect on the economy, and why bonds haven't performed well despite a rapid fall in inflation. Jack and Alfonso debate whether central banks print money, and Alfonso poses a spirited challenge to the predictive power of liquidity (bank reserves) on risk assets. Filmed on July 12, 2023. Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ The Macro Compass: https://t.co/zmbDLZ99iN -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can't-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) Introduction (00:20) The Recession That Didn't Show Up (11:35) How Big Is The Tightening of Credit Availability? (20:15) Is Quantitive Easing (QE) "Money Printing"? Jack & Alf Debate (29:45) Money Printing Type #1: Fiscal Deficits (38:47) Money Printing Type #2: Bank Lending (46:53) Money Printing Type #3: Non-Bank Lending (49:20) Can "Liquidity" Explain Market Returns? Alf Says No! (01:00:43) Why Haven't Bonds Performed As Inflation Has Fallen? (01:06:34) When Recession? — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Marcus Ashworth, columnist with Bloomberg Opinion, joins the program to discuss the Bank of England and outlook for the UK economy. Natalie Wong, Real Estate Reporter with Bloomberg News, joins the show in studio to discuss today's Bit Take story on empty office buildings becoming a “debt time bomb." Matt Calkins, CEO at Appian (NASDAQ: APPN), joins to discuss his company's performance, new A-I products and the impact of AI on tech, and outlook for the industry and artificial intelligence. Erica Adelberg, MBS Strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to discuss her notes on mortgage pressures from the Fed and breaks down this week's housing data. Alfonso Peccatiello, author and founder of the Macro Compass, joins to discuss global economies and outlook for inflation after the latest Bank of England meeting. Rania Sedhom, Managing Partner at Sedhom Law Group, joins us in studio to discuss legal issues as it relates to work-from-home as well as non-competes and the role they play in media and the Tucker Carlson saga. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Madison Mills.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode, the ReSolve Team is joined by Alphonso Peccatiello (aka MacroAlf), Founder and CEO of The Macro Compass and Former Head of Investments at ING in the Netherlands. In this comprehensive discussion, Alf explores the complexities of the global economy, investment strategies and portfolio management in an era of central bank influence and demographic shifts. Key themes addressed include: • The importance of comprehensive investment strategies, portfolio construction and market analysis to hedge against potential drawdowns and capture growth opportunities • Diversifying in a changing monetary environment, focusing on global economic growth, portfolio optimization and central bank influence • Adapting investment strategies to embrace demographic shifts and evolving fiscal policies in 2022 • Building diverse and neutral portfolios for long-term success and navigating economic slowdowns while leveraging investment opportunities • The role of inflation, recession and diversification in portfolio management and considering global economic trends, labor market dynamics, and private credit in macro investing • The relevance of global liquidity, rebalancing strategies and learning from past investment patterns to construct a robust, risk-adjusted portfolio Alf offers invaluable insights for investors looking to navigate the intricacies of the global economy, adapt their investment strategies to shifting trends and build portfolios that are prepared for challenges and opportunities in the coming years.   This is “ReSolve's Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management.   *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

This week we have an off-schedule show, but we wanted to get one in before some summer holidays makes it tougher. We have Macro Alf in the house to talk about liquidity, his investment process and proper Pizza etiquette when you are in Naples. *Got questions for Kevin and Patrick? Submit your questions to: nostupidquestions@markethuddle.com Visit our merch store!!! https://www.themarkethuddlemerch.com/ To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/

Jacob welcomes Alfonso Peccatiello from The Macro Compass back onto the podcast for a conversation about Italian eating rules, the debt ceiling (should you care about it?), Chinese investment viability, and trade analysis on their favorite emerging markets. You can find more of Alf's work: https://www.themacrocompass.com/--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:18) – The debt ceiling/U.S. macro(20:09) – Is China investable?(27:35) – Europe, specifically, Italy, Poland, and Romania(37:48) – Japan(43:44) – Indonesia--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapSubscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients' material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).--Referenced In The Show:--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacyPodtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Rebecca Hotsko and Alfonso Peccatiello discuss the current market outlook, including the driving force behind the market rally, its sustainability, Alfonso's prediction of a 0% rate cut by the Fed in 2024, and a whole lot more!Alfonso Peccatiello is former Head of a $20 billion Investment Portfolio and now is the Founder and author of The Macro Compass, which is an investment strategy firm that provides financial education, macro insights and investment ideas.IN THIS EPISODE, YOU'LL LEARN:00:00 - Intro.02:05 - His current market outlook, whether this recent market rally is sustainable or not. 10:43 - Why Alfonso expects the Fed to cut rates to 0% in 2024?22:07 - How the long-term debt cycle works, what are the key factors that drive it over time? 29:27 - Why Alfonso believes we are in the very late stages of the long term debt cycle?33:41 - What implications does this has economically, and for the financial markets? 34:02 - Will we see a period of deleveraging similar to 2008 and 1929 in the US? 41:11 - The difference between a period of deleveraging and a recession. 50:22 - His thoughts on the trend of de-dollarization, is a US dollar centric world over and are there any possible alternatives to this dollar central world? 54:49 - The Impacts that an economic downturn and de-leveraging would have on a US dollar based global system.60:09 - Alfonso's portfolio strategy and investment take-aways given his outlook. *Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.BOOKS AND RESOURCESCheck out The MacroCompass. Check out: The MacroCompass Substack. Related Episode: Listen to MI232: Understanding Quantitative Easing w/ Alfonso Peccatiello , or watch the video.NEW TO THE SHOW?Check out our Millennial Investing Starter Packs.Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.Try Robert and Rebecca's favorite tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance.Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets.Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts.P.S The Investor's Podcast Network is excited to launch a subreddit devoted to our fans in discussing financial markets, stock picks, questions for our hosts, and much more! Join our subreddit r/TheInvestorsPodcast today!SPONSORSGet a FREE audiobook from Audible.Instead of trying to time the market or pick single stocks, automate your investments and invest in a variety of companies with Betterment.What does happen when money and big feelings mix? Tune in to find out on the new podcast, Open Money, presented by Servus Credit Union.Apply for the Employee Retention Credit easily, no matter how busy you are, with Innovation Refunds.Enjoy soft, stretchy bottoms that last forever with birddogs. Use promo code INVESTING and get a free Yeti-style tumbler with every order.Partner with a specialized agency focused on making insurance as easy as possible for real estate investors. Take advantage of monthly reporting, monthly billing, and coverage for all phases of occupancy with National Real Estate Insurance Group.Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors.Connect with Rebecca: Twitter | InstagramEmail: Rebecca@theinvestorspodcast.comConnect with Alfonso: Website | Twitter See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

If you liked last week's Global Macro conversation with Cem Karsan you are going to LOVE this epic Macro debate as he and Alfonso Peccatiello, aka MacroAlf, go head to head on the most pressing topics of our time. From inflation and interest rates to De-Dollarization, China, Geo-Politics, Oil, Gold, and more, these two brilliant macro thinkers challenge each other's perspectives in a thought-provoking and engaging conversation. Despite their differences, they also find some common ground. Don't miss this electrifying episode!-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----ATTENTION TTU TRIBE : SIGN-UP for Rick Rule's Symposium: Once in a life-time natural resource insights from the BEST investors in the world via a first-class livestream or Live event!Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Alfonso on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:37 - The big macro picture04:37 - Inflation from a historical perspective14:22 - Cycles and trends - how are they different?18:23 - A sticky situation21:53 - A wealth of trades?26:58 - A secular reality29:17 - The banking situation35:16 - A build-up effect38:58 - Buying Puts - A way to lose money?41:02 - Cyclical vs Secular effects46:38 - Inflationary pressure in Japan54:45 - De-Dollarization and changes on...

“The de-dollarization is going to happen and it's going to be a very painful process,” says Alfonso Peccatiello, founder and CEO of The Macro Compass. He says moving away from the dollar-centric transaction system will result in “geopolitical tension, wars, tectonic shifts, and nothing we hope for as humanity.” On top of that, “We have created $12 trillion of debt, denominating in dollars but issued by entities that are not in the U.S… when they became debt in a currency that is not controlled, they basically become independent of dollar inflows from their trade to service their debt, so they need to sell more commodities in dollars to pay their dollar debt and dollar coupons.” Ahead of the Fed's upcoming meeting, Alfonso says the central bank is expected to approve a 25-basis-point boost. ➡️ Watch Here

Dan and Guy are joined by Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, to discuss what will move the broader market (4:00), Wall Street sentiment (8:00), earnings (11:00), what history says about a recession (26:00), what Liz is watching this week (31:00), and ODTE options (33:00). Dan sits down with Alfonso Peccatiello, Founder & CEO of The Macro Compass, and talk about what options in the stock and bond market are saying (40:00), how to spot a recession (46:30), how investors should be thinking about leading indicators (51:30), the market doesn't bottom before a recession (59:00), and leaving tech stocks for more defensive positions (1:04:00). Hedge Funds Place Biggest Ever Short on Benchmark Treasuries ---- Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod. We're on social: Follow Dan Nathan @DanNathanRR on Twitter Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page

What was the short-lived SVB baking crisis all about?  Has it forced the Fed's hand?  Are we done tightening? Lots of Macro questions so who better to dig into it with than the appropriately nicknamed Macro Alf. In this episode of The Derivative, we sit down with Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass and owner of the wonderful Twitter handle @MacroAlf to discuss the challenges of generating alpha in a low-volatility environment.  Peccatiello shares his experience of working for ING Bank and managing the Treasury Department's investment portfolio, how regulatory forces have pushed the large players into what looks currently like the wrong investments. They explore the difficulty of generating more return by taking the same amount of risk, especially in a market where the last basis point of carry of risk premia available was the name of the game. Alfonso and Jeff also delve into the bond market's predictive ability (or maybe more fair to say inability) and its role in predicting the economy's future, the importance of risk management, and the blending of systematic and discretionary processes in making investment decisions. They emphasize the need to consider various factors when analyzing the bond market and interpreting its nuances, plus so much more! So sit back, relax, and get ready to learn valuable insights into investment and macro trading and the challenges faced in generating alpha in a low-volatility environment — SEND IT!  Chapters: 00:00-02:18 = Intro 02:19-14:54= It's Alf! Regulatory schemes, Bond exposure, Macro volatility, & Quitting the bank 14:55-25:34= Real Estate: The largest asset class under pressure 25:35-35:38= The Macro Compass – Blending Risk appetite, Research & tools 35:39-50:39= The fall of SVB: regulations, funding & risk management & The Swiss Credit Suisse 50:40-01:02:48= Off the Radar: China & its reopening From the Episode: Fed Pricing chart Follow Alfonso on Twitter @MacroAlf and check out his research, podcasts, and more at ⁠TheMacroCompass.com and subscribe! Don't forget to subscribe to ⁠⁠The Derivative⁠⁠, follow us on Twitter at ⁠⁠@rcmAlts⁠⁠ and our host Jeff at ⁠⁠@AttainCap2⁠⁠, or ⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠ , and ⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠, and ⁠⁠sign-up for our blog digest⁠⁠. Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations, nor reference past or potential profits. And listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. For more information, visit ⁠⁠www.rcmalternatives.com/disclaimer

Alf is Italian but is coming today from the Netherlands. He and Jason talk about some of the factors that contributed to the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank, the largest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis. They discuss the moral hazard involved, mismanaged portfolios and the lack of proper risk management- factors that culminated on the banks demise, making investors question whether this will spark a broader banking meltdown. Key Takeaways: Jason's editorial 1:21 Hope you enjoyed last episode 2:03 Listen to Jason's “10 commandments of successful investing”: Thou shalt maintain control! 4:38 Housing inventory keeps falling- where's the crash? 7:10 Almost 25% of mortgages are 3% or lower 8:19 On to our guest with a deep dive into the current banking crisis Alfonso Peccatiello interview 9:14 Alf, coming from the Netherlands 10:03 3 Bank collapses; a summary of what really happened 13:42 US Banks loan-to-deposit ratios 16:06 Moral Hazard and a mismanaged portfolio 19:16 Big banks hedge interest rate risks- NOT SVB 22:28 Lax regulatory and accounting laws in the US for small banks 23:34 Who benefited from the collapse 24:36 Securities portfolio mix as of December 31, 2022;  distinguishing between small and highly regulated banks 29:29 SVB ‘woke' programs and the lack of proper risk management 30:39 Bank failures 2001 to 2023; are more bank collapses coming 31:56 At risk: the real estate market; unaffordable housing leads to more renters 34:50 Compared to what 37:43 The booming labor market 39:02 Credibility & central banks; Blackstone & KKR, Jerome Powell & Paul Volcker 44:25 There is no distressed home owner 48:10 Institutional investors- what their capital stack or debt structure is like 49:32 Step up your macro game  https://www.themacrocompass.com   Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com

In the past week, the US has seen 3 bank failures, a new lending facility from the Federal Reserve, and a rush of bankers using their identified collateral for new borrowing. Gold is getting a bid but the base metal complex is looking shaky. We connect with the Macro Compass author, Alfonso Peccatiello, about these events, the regulations needed to prevent another bank run, the Fed's new creative tools, and what investors (and their families) might look at to survive the turmoil in the economy. We'd like to thank our sponsors: Western Copper and Gold is focused on developing the world-class Casino project in Canada's Yukon Territory. The Casino project consists of an impressive 11 billion pounds of copper and 21 million ounces of gold in an overall resource. Western Copper and Gold trades on the TSX and the NYSE American with WRN. Be sure to follow the company via their website, www.westerncopperandgold.com. ASCU is an early-stage copper developer and explorer of the Cactus Mine and its satellite project, Parks/Salyer, both situated on a 4km mine trend on private land in Arizona's porphyry copper district. Opportunity for significant growth and scale exist along the trend, while future capex requirements outlined in the Cactus PEA benefit from significant onsite and nearby access to infrastructure. The Company is led by an executive management team and Board which have a long-standing track record of successful project delivery in North America. For more information, please visit www.arizonasonoran.com. Fireweed Metals is advancing 3 different projects within the Yukon and Northwest Territories, including the flagship Macmillan Pass Project, a large zinc-lead-silver deposit and the Mactung Project, one of the largest and highest-grade tungsten deposits in the world. Fireweed plans to advance these projects through exploration, resource definition, metallurgy, engineering, economic studies and collaboration with indigenous people on the path to production. For more information please visit fireweedmetals.com.

Alf is Italian but is coming today from the Netherlands. He and Jason talk about some of the factors that contributed to the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank, the largest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis. They discuss the moral hazard involved, mismanaged portfolios and the lack of proper risk management- factors that culminated on the banks demise, making investors question whether this will spark a broader banking meltdown. Key Takeaways: Jason's editorial 1:21 Hope you enjoyed last episode 2:03 Listen to Jason's “10 commandments of successful investing”: Thou shalt maintain control! 4:38 Housing inventory keeps falling- where's the crash? 7:10 Almost 25% of mortgages are 3% or lower 8:19 On to our guest with a deep dive into the current banking crisis Alfonso Peccatiello interview 9:14 Alf, coming from the Netherlands 10:03 3 Bank collapses; a summary of what really happened 13:42 US Banks loan-to-deposit ratios 16:06 Moral Hazard and a mismanaged portfolio 19:16 Big banks hedge interest rate risks- NOT SVB 22:28 Lax regulatory and accounting laws in the US for small banks 23:34 Who benefited from the collapse 24:36 Securities portfolio mix as of December 31, 2022;  distinguishing between small and highly regulated banks 29:29 SVB ‘woke' programs and the lack of proper risk management 30:39 Bank failures 2001 to 2023; are more bank collapses coming 31:56 At risk: the real estate market; unaffordable housing leads to more renters 34:50 Compared to what 37:43 The booming labor market 39:02 Credibility & central banks; Blackstone & KKR, Jerome Powell & Paul Volcker 44:25 There is no distressed home owner 48:10 Institutional investors- what their capital stack or debt structure is like 49:32 Step up your macro game  https://www.themacrocompass.com   Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com

Alf is Italian but is coming today from the Netherlands. He and Jason talk about some of the factors that contributed to the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank, the largest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis. They discuss the moral hazard involved, mismanaged portfolios and the lack of proper risk management- factors that culminated on the banks demise, making investors question whether this will spark a broader banking meltdown. Key Takeaways: Jason's editorial 1:21 Hope you enjoyed last episode 2:03 Listen to Jason's "10 commandments of successful investing": Thou shalt maintain control! 4:38 Housing inventory keeps falling- where's the crash? 7:10 Almost 25% of mortgages are 3% or lower 8:19 On to our guest with a deep dive into the current banking crisis Alfonso Peccatiello interview 9:14 Alf, coming from the Netherlands 10:03 3 Bank collapses; a summary of what really happened 13:42 US Banks loan-to-deposit ratios 16:06 Moral Hazard and a mismanaged portfolio 19:16 Big banks hedge interest rate risks- NOT SVB 22:28 Lax regulatory and accounting laws in the US for small banks  23:34 Who benefited from the collapse 24:36 Securities portfolio mix as of December 31, 2022;  distinguishing between small and highly regulated banks 29:29 SVB 'woke' programs and the lack of proper risk management 30:39 Bank failures 2001 to 2023; are more bank collapses coming 31:56 At risk: the real estate market; unaffordable housing leads to more renters 34:50 Compared to what 37:43 The booming labor market  39:02 Credibility & central banks; Blackstone & KKR, Jerome Powell & Paul Volcker 44:25 There is no distressed home owner 48:10 Institutional investors- what their capital stack or debt structure is like 49:32 Step up your macro game  https://www.themacrocompass.com   Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com

Alfonso "Alf" Peccatiello is the founder and CEO of the Macro Compass, and the ex-head of a $20B bond portfolio. Alf joins me to discuss - is the economy as strong as it seems, whether the labor market is weakening, what's going on in Europe, the Chinese reopening story and more!

Tom welcomes back Alfonso Peccatiello author of the Macro Compass Substack to the show. Alfonso is predicting a recession in the US starting in May or June of this year. He bases this prediction on three indicators - the frozen housing market, the Fed's attempt to engineer tighter financial conditions, and the reaction of central banks to inflation. He also talks about immaculate disinflation, which is an environment where inflation comes down rapidly without a recession. The market is pricing this, which means people are selling insurance trades like the dollar, volatility, and cash, and buying high-beta stocks. Alfonso disagrees with this take and believes a recession is still more likely than a soft landing. He notes that the stock market usually bottoms before earnings bottom, and that valuations start to rise as the Fed cuts rates. He believes that a true bull market won't be seen until 2024, and that people should be wary of trying to anticipate the Fed's pivot. He also notes that the bond market underpins everything in the current financialized economy. The amount of debt between private and public sectors is 300-400% of GDP and bond yields are the price of the cost of borrowing. An inverted yield curve has hardly ever mis-forecasted a recession, and he cautions against believing that “this time is different”. Finally, he talks about net liquidity decreasing due to the Fed running off its balance sheet. The Treasury General Account is taking the hit instead of reserves, but once the debt ceiling debate is resolved, the Treasury General Account will need to be replenished. This will cause a double whammy effect on liquidity between June and December, with quantitative tightening running on the background. Ultimately, the Federal Reserve's running off its balance sheet removes liquidity from the system. Alfonso also talks about how to avoid getting stuck in a narrative and what data should be paid attention to. He recommends self-awareness, training oneself to not think that one knows everything, and building a macro process and data-driven macro process. He advises looking for episodes of extreme market conviction, as it allows one to understand when things are getting stretched and when people are assigning too much conviction. He also encourages people to become active macro investors, as this is a much more complicated investing landscape than before. Talking Points From This Week's Episode Alfonso predicts a recession in the US starting in May or June of this year, based on three indicators.The market is pricing in a soft landing but more likely a true bull market won't be seen until 2024.He advises looking for market conviction, examining the macro environment, and develop market self-awareness in order to understand the complex financial landscape. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:05 - Base Case For Markets4:30 - Immaculate Disinflation7:44 - Recession Insurance9:53 - Expectations & FOMO19:12 - FED Timing & Pivots21:55 - Macro & Bond Markets25:29 - Yield Curve Inversion29:38 - Fed Balance Sheet35:05 - Narratives & Data39:40 - Risks & Wrap Up Guest Links:Website: https://www.themacrocompass.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlfSubstack: https://TheMacroCompass.substack.com Alfonso Peccatiello is the Founder & CEO of The Macro Compass, a disruptive investment strategy firm whose mission is to democratize professional macro analysis, tools and portfolio strategy. The Macro Compass leverages Alf's experience running large pools of institutional money and offers financial education, unique macroeconomic insights, and actionable investment strategy. Before launching The Macro Compass, Alfonso was the Head of Investments for a $20 billion portfolio for ING Germany.

Check out our daily newsletter: https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-gb/opto/newsletterYou are listening to the first episode of our collation series. Today's episode comprises insights about a topic that obsessed investors in 2022; an obsession that's showing little sign of abating this year: inflation. Over the past few months, we've spoken to brilliant investors and asked them how they're positioning their portfolios to tackle rampant inflation. We collated their responses and included them in this episode, hoping their comments will help us reflect on this contentious topic. Thanks to Cofruition for consulting on and producing the podcast. Want further Opto insights? Check out our daily newsletter: https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-gb/opto/newsletter------------------Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.CMC Markets does not endorse or offer opinions on the trading strategies used by the author. Their trading strategies do not guarantee any return and CMC Markets shall not be held responsible for any loss that you may incur, either directly or indirectly, arising from any investment based on any information contained herein for any loss that you may incur, either directly or indirectly, arising from any investment based on any information contained herein.

Get Opto's best content every day, by subscribing to our FREE Newsletter: www.cmcmarkets.com/en/opto/newsletterToday I have the pleasure of interviewing Alfonso Peccatiello, founder & CEO of The Macro Compass, a disruptive investment strategy firm whose mission is to democratize professional macro analysis, tools, and portfolio strategy.The Macro Compass leverages Alf's experience running large pools of institutional money and offers financial education, unique macroeconomic insights, and actionable investment strategy. Before launching The Macro Compass, Alfonso was the Head of Investments for a $20 billion portfolio for ING Germany.In this interview we review Alf's global market outlook for 2023 touching on why the labor market holds the key and what asset classes and instruments could perform well and not so well in this environment. Enjoythemacrocompass.com@MacroAlfThanks to Cofruition for consulting on and producing the podcast. Want further Opto insights? Check out our daily newsletter: https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-gb/opto/newsletter------------------Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.CMC Markets does not endorse or offer opinions on the trading strategies used by the author. Their trading strategies do not guarantee any return and CMC Markets shall not be held responsible for any loss that you may incur, either directly or indirectly, arising from any investment based on any information contained herein for any loss that you may incur, either directly or indirectly, arising from any investment based on any information contained herein.

On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent twitter thread after this weeks ECB meeting. In this meeting, Lagarde gave an undoubtedly hawkish press conference to remind markets they have a lot further to go in their quest to fight inflation. Alfonso walks through how investors should interperit this hawkish tone from the ECB, and more importantly how it might effect your portfolio. To find out more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Follow Boiler Room: https://twitter.com/PodBoilerRoom Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: This was the most important ECB meetings since the Draghi era: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1603409716339740672 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:40) Breaking Down The ECB Meeting (06:36) The ECB Is Leading Europe Into A Recession (08:13) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "The BIS ''Hidden USD Debt'' Story Explained". This week the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released a bombshell report that made the rounds reporting on the roughly $100 Trillion in "hidden" USD debt. Alfonso walks through the mechanics of the report and dispels some of the doomsday scenarios that made some headlines. To find out more, you'll have to tune in! — Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Follow Boiler Room: https://twitter.com/PodBoilerRoom Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ — Referenced In The Show: The BIS ''Hidden USD Debt'' Story Explained: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/usd-hidden-debt#details Dollar debt in FX swaps and forwards: huge, missing and growing: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212h.htm — Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (02:14) King Dollar Matters (05:46) What's This ‘‘Hidden Debt'' All About? (09:18) Where Is The Problem? (14:27) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Steve Keen Professor of economics and creator of the Minsky software. Professor Keen joins the show to debunk the myth of government deficits by walking through the biggest misconceptions in the mechanics of money, government spending and private vs public sector deficits. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Professor Steve Keen: https://twitter.com/ProfSteveKeen Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ -- Referenced In The Show:  Building a New Economics: https://profstevekeen.substack.com/ Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfSteveKeen -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:03) The Process of Money Creation (06:52) The Fiscal Spending of 2020 (12:02) The Mechanics of Bond Issuance (15:47) How Government Spending Actually Works (28:07) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Dan and Danny discuss Fed Chair Powell's speech this week (1:50), December volatility (5:30), what could happen when China reopens (12:30), retail stocks (15:24), Salesforce (18:00), the CNBC Sam Bankman-Fried interview (22:45), tether (26:45), and Danny's NFL picks of the week (33:20). Later, Guy and Danny interview Alfonso Peccatiello, Founder & CEO of The Macro Compass, and talk about similarities between the stock market now and 2001 (42:25), what's next to break (), the correlation between copper and gold (51:20), stagflation (55:40), what can go right (1:03:45), and the Macro Compass (1:05:40). Check out our show notes and transcript here ---- See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape.  ---- Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod. We're on social: Follow Dan Nathan @RiskReversal on Twitter Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page

On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "Let's Not Be Stupid Macro Investors". As a long-term or tactical macro investor, the emotion-driven biases threatening to kill our performance are countless. Alfonso walks through his 3 investing principles to help investors best position themselves in markets so ensure they assets that are return additive and low correlation assets. — As a listener of Boiler Room, you will be able to get access to TMC content for the entire 2023 by paying only 9 months instead of 12!  Check out which subscription tier suits you the most and grab your last chance to be an early bird subscriber using the discount code ‘‘TMC2''! https://www.themacrocompass.com/subscribe/ — Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Follow Boiler Room: https://twitter.com/PodBoilerRoom Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ — Referenced In The Show: Let's Not Be Stupid Macro Investors: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/stupid-mistakes-macro-investors#details — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:57) Common Mistakes & How To Avoid Them (04:13) You Sure You're Running 5 Positions, Or Is It Just 1? (06:58) Do Not Proxy Trade (09:08) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Alfonso – also known as MacroAlf – joined Adam and Mike to discuss his most recent report entitled “Yes, But When Recession?” Our conversation covered: Alf's experience managing a $20B multi-asset book at a global bank Experience launching an independent macro newsletter for greater freedom of views Benefits of interacting with central bankers, regulators and senior officials at the bank Currently focused on recession – when and how bad will it be? Economic, social and market impacts of recessions How recession might change the Fed's reaction function Powell and other central bankers questioning the benefits of QE and whether Fed may have a different reaction function this time Exploring the pros and cons of QE Why banks lend, and why they didn't want to lend over the past decade of QE? Powell's focus on Volcker and implications for policy trajectory Expectations for a second leg down and the 2000 – 2002 analog What happens in bear markets after Fed pivots? Prospects for a longer, grinding bear market Impact of high returns on cash competing with low returns on real estate and other risk assets Character of stock market bottoms in a cyclical downturn Market indicators of recession and inflation risk using Alf's Volatility Adjusted Market Dashboard Negative credit impulse signaling recession in Q2 2023 Impact of rate of change vs level of credit given enormous surge in bank reserves in 2020 Leading indicators suggesting recession in late Q2 2023 Housing market and Sahm Rule implying recession in Q2 2023 Expectations for returns on stocks, bonds and other assets over the next several years *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

Link to Jared's book - Iceland's Secret: The Untold Story of the World's Biggest Con: https://amzn.to/3EQ0xxX On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Jared Bibler author of Iceland's Secret: The Untold Story of the World's Biggest Con. Alfonso and Jared draw parallels between the financial fraud that took place in Iceland during the 2008 financial crisis, and the recent fallout of FTX. History doesn't repeat itselt, but it often rhymes. What is it that causes financial fraud and excessive leverage time and time again throughout history? To find out, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jared: https://twitter.com/jared_bibler Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ -- Referenced In The Show:  All They Told You About Money Printing Is Really, Really Wrong: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/money-printing-myths#details Iceland's Secret: The Untold Story of the World's Biggest Con: https://icelandssecret.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:45) All They Told You About Money Printing Is Really, Really Wrong (03:37) The Untold Story of The World's Biggest Con (11:54) Parallels With The FTX Fallout (15:55) History Doesn't Repeat, But It Often Rhymes (21:17) How Did The Situation In Iceland End? (24:33) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Eric Basmajian for a discussion on the rising risks of recession into 2023. With a focus on the cyclical & secular forces driving the global economy, Eric shares his framework for assessing the risks of recession in Q1 of 2023. Using both real time and leading indicators, Eric evaluates the current cyclical trend in economic growth and inflation before sharing his outlook on what this means for markets. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Eric: https://twitter.com/EPBResearch Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ -- Referenced In The Show: Business Cycle Dating Procedure: Frequently Asked Questions: https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:23) Eric's Secular & Cyclical Economic Outlook (06:37) Are We In A Recession? (13:21) Market's Are Not Priced For A Recession (20:08 )Market Outlook Into 2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU'LL LEARN:02:09 - Why Banks are at serious risk of losing deposits.09:25 - Why the ECB is changing its tune on monetary policy.17:01 - The recent Fed meeting.39:46 - The underlying risk with pension funds using interest rate swaps.58:44 - Expectations for the current yield curve inversion.And much, much more!Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.BOOKS AND RESOURCESThe Macro Compass' Newsletter.Alf's Twitter.Trey Lockerbie's Twitter.Related Episode: European Fragmentation Policy & Mounting Global Pressures w/ Alf Pecca - BTC089.Related Episode: Understanding Quantitative Easing w/ Alfonso Peccatiello - MI232.NEW TO THE SHOW?Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs.Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool.Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets.Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. P.S The Investor's Podcast Network is excited to launch a subreddit devoted to our fans in discussing financial markets, stock picks, questions for our hosts, and much more! Join our subreddit r/TheInvestorsPodcast today!SPONSORSGet position and investment info for nearly 6,000 Asset Management Companies with Moomoo, Australia's first A.I. powered trading platform. Sign up and fund your moomoo account before October 31 and get $10 for every $100 you deposit. All investment carries risk. AFSL 224 663. T&Cs apply.Find an advisor who's invested in you with iA Financial Services Inc.If your business has five or more employees and managed to survive Covid you could be eligible to receive a payroll tax rebate of up to twenty-six thousand dollars per employee. Find out if your business qualifies with Innovation Refunds.Whether you're exploring ways to manage volatility, seeking income and diversification opportunities, or looking for tax management strategies- Invesco has over 200 ETFs to help you meet your financial goals. Visit invesco.com for a prospectus with this information.Invest in high-quality, cash-flowing real estate without all of the hassle with Passive Investing.Private assets represent 98% of companies in North America but are absent in most portfolios. Reconstruct your portfolio with private markets with Mackenzie Investments.Throw out the old traditions and get progressive. Discover the complete package - smart design, lots to love under the hood with Genesis.Have gold and silver shipped directly to your door for you to hold at your home. Get BullionMax's Gold Investor Kit today - 3 ounces of the world's most desirable gold coins, including the Gold American Eagle and Canadian Maple Leaf.More wealth, more purpose, or making more of a difference? Commonwealth Private helps you create more of yours - with exceptional service and experts who meticulously tailor opportunities for you.Take a position daily on potential price movements, and gain exposure while limiting risk with Interactive Brokers.If you're aware you need to improve your bitcoin security but have been putting it off, Unchained Capital's Concierge Onboarding is a simple way to get started—sooner rather than later. Book your onboarding today and at checkout, get $50 off with the promo code FUNDAMENTALS.Get personalized, expert advice that helps you see things clearly with ATB.In a world of probabilities, trade the possibilities with Pepperstone.If you're a sales professional, get every real time advantage you can get with Sales Navigator. Enjoy 60 days of free trial today.Enjoy 10% off your first booking in Viator's world of over 300,000 experiences you'll remember. Download the Viator app now and use code VIATOR10.Monitor your recovery, sleep, training, and health, with personalized recommendations and coaching feedback with WHOOP. Use code WSB to save 10% off your order today.Start building a portfolio of alternative farm and timberland assets with AcreTrader.Enjoy a 400-calorie meal that contains 40g of expertly sourced, premium plant protein, all 26 essential vitamins and minerals, and a scientifically calibrated mix of carbs, good fats and fiber with Huel Black Edition. Plus, get a free t-shirt and free shaker with your first order.Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors.HELP US OUT!Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Raoul Pal joins Alfonso Peccatiello and Andreas Steno Larsen for a discussion on debt, demographics and deflationary pressures. NOTE - This interview was released on November 6th, 2022 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU'LL LEARN: 01:30 - What conventional monetary policy is and what are the main tools the Fed uses to achieve its two part mandate. 01:30 - What unconventional monetary policy is and why central banks use these tools. 09:26 - What is quantitative easing (QE) and how it works. 14:41 - How the use of QE leads to artificially inflated asset prices. 19:30 - How does the Fed's quantitative tightening impact mortgage rates? 41:11 - What will happen to stock prices as the Fed unwinds its balance sheet? 54:11 - Why UK pension funds started to default and could this happen in the US? 01:00:02 - What is driving the recent strength in the dollar?01:03:43 - What would cause the Fed to pivot from tightening to QE again? 01:05:47 - How a strong dollar impacts corporate earnings and profits. And much, much more!*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.BOOKS AND RESOURCESCheck out Alfonso's financial writings: The Macro Compass. Related Episode: Central Banking 101 w/ Joseph Wang - MI190.NEW TO THE SHOW?Check out our Millennial Investing Starter Packs.Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.Try Robert and Clay's favorite tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance.Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets.Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts.P.S The Investor's Podcast Network is excited to launch a subreddit devoted to our fans in discussing financial markets, stock picks, questions for our hosts, and much more! Join our subreddit r/TheInvestorsPodcast today!SPONSORSGet a FREE audiobook from Audible.Invest in high quality, cash flowing real estate without all of the hassle with Passive Investing.If your business has five or more employees and managed to survive Covid you could be eligible to receive a payroll tax rebate of up to twenty-six thousand dollars per employee. Find out if your business qualifies with Innovation Refunds.Join Steadily and BiggerPockets in recognizing and celebrating landlords nationwide by participating in the #AmericasBestLandlord contest. Find out how you can win $10,000 today.Take a position daily on potential price movements, and gain exposure while limiting risk with Interactive Brokers.Enjoy a 400-calorie meal that contains 40g of expertly sourced, premium plant protein, all 26 essential vitamins and minerals, and a scientifically calibrated mix of carbs, good fats and fiber with Huel Black Edition. Plus, get a free t-shirt and free shaker with your first order.Design your perfect suit with Indochino. Get 10% off any purchase of $399 or more by use promo code INVEST.Don't limit your dreams to the imagination. Explore Iowa for yourself.Private assets represent 98% of companies in North America but are absent in most portfolios. Reconstruct your portfolio with private markets with Mackenzie Investments.Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors.Connect with Alfonso: Twitter | LinkedIn Connect with Rebecca: Twitter | InstagramSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Alfonso Peccatiello, author and former head of fixed income portfolio management at ING Deutschland, joins the show to discuss markets, investing strategies and global headwinds. Bloomberg's Abigail Doolittle joins the show to break down Nike's outlook. Nick Stadtmiller, Director of Emerging Markets at Medley Global Advisors joins the show to discuss geopolitical unrest and global credit pressures. Joe Mysak, Editor of the Bloomberg Brief: Municipal Markets, joins the show to discuss the latest from the municipal bond market. Dr. Quincy Krosby, Chief Global Strategist for LPL Financial joins the show to discuss market uncertainty and the economy. Hosts are Paul Sweeney and Ed Ludlow, in for Matt Miller. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On this episode of MKT Call Dan Nathan, Danny Moses and Alfonso Peccatiello discuss: The Fed meeting kicking off Earnings cuts spooking the markets The top macro indicator Why Microsoft is the most important chart in the markets See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com.  Shoot us an email at contact@riskreversal.com with any feedback, questions, or suggestions going forward and follow us @MKTCall. We're on social: Follow Dan Nathan @RiskReversal on Twitter Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Like us on Facebook @RiskReversal Subscribe to our YouTube page

On this episode of MKT Call Dan Nathan, Danny Moses and Alfonso Peccatiello discuss: The Fed meeting kicking off Earnings cuts spooking the markets The top macro indicator Why Microsoft is the most important chart in the markets See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com.  Shoot us an email at contact@riskreversal.com with any feedback, questions, or suggestions going forward and follow us @MKTCall. We're on social: Follow Dan Nathan @RiskReversal on Twitter Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Like us on Facebook  @RiskReversal Subscribe to our YouTube page

Fearing deflation and eager to sponsor growth post the GFC, Central Banks around the world became a near permanent fixture in markets, gathering vast stockpiles of risk free assets. Few were more impactful in determining clearing prices than was the ECB. With this in mind, it was a pleasure to welcome Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of the Macro Compass, to the podcast.Our conversation is one part retrospective, looking back on the period between 2013 and 2019 when interest rates in the Eurozone descended to shocking low and negative levels. Alf shares his views on the trade-offs in seeking favorable risk-adjusted carry in such a low rate regime, making the point that it's important to identify and understand the capital that serves to sponsor the trade along with you. We touch on some of the unique political considerations for risk assets in Europe and here, Alf looks back on a shock to Italian markets that materialized in May of 2018 as fears advanced that a Euro-skeptic government coalition could seek to abandon the Euro.We also survey the uncertainties today, focusing on the risks that may result from nominal yields in Italy approaching 4%. From Alf's perspective, while there is plenty of negative sentiment, one can argue that the price of risk does not fully reflect the degree of economic and financial vulnerability resulting from the combination of inflation and the risks of energy prices.Lastly, we touch on Alf's efforts at the Macro Compass, the newsletter he launched to share his insights on the big picture of risk and to play a role in financial education. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Alfonso Peccatiello

Tom welcomes back Alfonso Peccatiello author of the Macro Compass Substack to the show. Alfonso believes the Repo markets could be the most important part of the pyramid going forward. The system is continuing to add more layers and levels to the way markets work. Repo markets exist below bonds at the very base of the pyramid. Repo markets allow for leveraging of bonds and treasuries. Repo markets are very active to the tune of trillions per day. Pension funds, asset managers, or corporate treasurers are on the other side of these trades. So long as financing costs are predictably low, there aren't many problems. There is a lot of cash chasing a limited amount of collateral. When Repos become unsteady, it shakes the entire pyramid structure. These markets can become very tight rapidly. The Fed has not changed its inflation targets. They want to be improving inflation expectations because it impacts their credibility. They are very committed to shrinking their balance sheets. The chances of a soft landing in this environment are quite low. It will likely take a fairly big recession to bring inflation back to two percent. Probably a recession that lasts up to two years. However, the system is much more leveraged and fragile than in the past. This makes addressing the problems much more complex. He shows us the G5 Credit Impulse chart. It reflects private sector bank balances and if they are increasing or shrinking. This is indicative of economic activity across the G5 nations and is a leading indicator of economic activity. It's currently falling off a cliff, and therefore economic growth and earnings are likely to fall further. A recession is when people are fired and are losing their jobs. This shows up in business models that start to crumble, and then bleeds over to the rest of the economy and housing. He says, "We are going to have a proper recession." Markets want to make money, and they wish to hear that inflation is coming under control. However, this is not the case. We need momentum for inflation figures to decline. Investors should be cautious in the risks they take with their portfolio. Something very foundational will have to break for the Fed to change to a dovish approach. There will be a point where they have generated enough 'damage' to the economy where inflation control is regained. Talking Points From This Week's Episode The importance of the Repo markets and why they are foundational.Fed's inflation targets and why a pivot may be quite some time away.Defining inflation and why the Fed has to get it under control. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:05 - Bond Markets & Repos3:45 - Repo Trading Volume6:20 - Managing Repo Risk9:29 - 2019 Repo Problems12:20 - Bear Traps & Inflation18:04 - Tightening & Bankers22:06 - A Soft Landing?25:03 - Job Markets Report29:32 - G5 Credit Impulse34:02 - Recession Nuances35:48 - CPI Prints & Fed Targets41:58 - Force a Fed Pivot?44:40 - Portfolio Positioning48:33 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Substack: https://TheMacroCompass.substack.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Alfonso Peccatiello is a former head of a twenty-billion-dollar Investment Portfolio and is a passionate global macro investor. He writes The Macro Compass, a financial newsletter providing actionable investment ideas and unique macroeconomic insights to enhance the risk/return of your portfolio.

In today's episode, the dynamic duo Alfonso Peccatiello, aka MacroAlf and Andreas Steno Larsen, join us to discuss all things Macro...from Central Banks and the reasons for the rising inflation, populism and how monetary policy has created inequality. We also get around demographics and how the shrinking labour force poses a threat to the economy, ESG and the impact it has on inflation, how a generational shift in politics can cause a taxation of the boomers, the 4th Turning and key mistakes to avoid as an investor and much more. ---- ---- Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate (here). And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/flavor (here). Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/ (here). Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu (iTunes) or https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW (Spotify) so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on https://twitter.com/jam_croissant (Twitter). Follow Andreas on https://twitter.com/andreassteno?lang=da (Twitter). Follow Alfonso on https://twitter.com/macroalf?lang=da (Twitter.) Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 03:15 - Setting the stage for our conversation 07:26 - Current Macro outlook...and how its evolved in recent months 13:47 - Populism & potential for Deflation 28:51 - Demographics & Labour force 53:05 - Central Bank policies 01:03:58 - Key mistakes to avoid 01:10:09 - Wrapping up  Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/ (Click Here) 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I'm really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/ (Click Here) 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ (Click Here) https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/legal/privacy-policy/ (Privacy Policy) https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/ (Disclaimer)

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