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 SPECIAL ENCORE

Today an encore presentation of an episode that originally aired on October 8th. At popular request, no encore this Wednesday, but instead an end-bits special. News you can use, and some you probably will choose to ignore! Everything from what's best to do - shower in the morning or evening, to which car colour holds it resale value best? And a lot more -- enjoy. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Sidney Powell SPECIAL ENCORE

BG Robert Spalding SPECIAL ENCORE

Original Release Date: August 21, 2025From China's rapid electric vehicle adoption to the rise of robotaxis, humanoids, and flying vehicles, our analysts Adam Jonas and Tim Hsiao discuss how AI is revolutionizing the global auto industry.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Adam Jonas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Adam Jonas. I lead Morgan Stanley's Research Department's efforts on embodied AI and humanoid robots. Tim Hsiao: And I'm Tim Hsiao, Greater China Auto Analyst. Adam Jonas: Today – how the global auto industry is evolving from horsepower to brainpower with the help of AI. It's Thursday, August 21st at 9am in New York. Tim Hsiao: And 9pm in Hong Kong. Adam Jonas: From Detroit to Stuttgart to Shanghai, automakers are making big investments in AI. In fact, AI is the engine behind what we think will be a $200 billion self-driving vehicle market by 2030. Tim, you believe that nearly 30 percent of vehicles sold globally by 2030 will be equipped with Level 2+ smart driving features that can control steering, acceleration, braking, and even some hands-off driving. We expect China to account for 60 percent of these vehicles by 2030. What's driving this rapid adoption in China and how does it compare to the rest of the world? Tim Hsiao: China has the largest EV market globally, and the country's EV sales are not only making up over 50 percent of the new car sales locally in China but also accounting for over 50 percent of the global EV sales. As a result, the market is experiencing intense competition. And the car makers are keen to differentiate with the technological innovation, to which smart driving serve[s] as the most effective means. This together with the AI breakthrough enables China to aggressively roll out Level 2+ urban navigation on autopilot. In the meantime, Chinese government support, and cost competitive supply chains also helps. So, we are looking for China's the adoption of Level 2+ smart driving on passenger vehicle to reach 25 percent by end of this year, and 60 percent by 2030 versus 6 percent and 17 percent for the rest of the world during the same period. Adam Jonas: How is China balancing an aggressive rollout with safety and compliance, especially as it moves towards even greater vehicle automation going forward? Tim Hsiao: Right. That's a great and a relevant question because over the years, China has made significant strides in developing a comprehensive regulatory framework for autonomous vehicles. For example, China was already implementing its strategies for innovation and the development of autonomous vehicles in 2022 and had proved several auto OEM to roll out Level 3 pilot programs in 2023. Although China has been implementing stricter requirements since early this year; for example, banning terms like autonomous driving in advertisement and requiring stricter testing, we still believe more detailed industry standard and regulatory measures will facilitate development and adoption of Level 2+ Smart driving. And this is important to prevent, you know, the bad money from driving out goods. Adam Jonas: One way people might encounter this technology is through robotaxis. Now, robotaxis are gaining traction in China's major cities, as you've been reporting. What's the outlook for Level 4 adoption and how would this reshape urban mobility? Tim Hsiao: The size of Level 4+ robotaxi fleet stays small at the moment in China, with less than 1 percent penetration rate. But we've started seeing accelerating roll out of robotaxi operation in major cities since early this year. So, by 2030, we are looking for Level 4+ robotaxis to account for 8 percent of China's total taxi and ride sharing fleet size by 2030. So, this adoption is facilitated by robust regulatory frameworks, including designated test zones and the clear safety guidance. We believe the proliferation of a Level 4 robotaxi will eventually reshape the urban mobility by meaningfully reducing transportation costs, alleviating traffic congestion through optimized routing and potentially reducing accidents. So, Adam, that's the outlook for China. But looking at the global trends beyond China, what are the biggest global revenue opportunities in your view? Is that going to be hardware, software, or something else? Adam Jonas: We are entering a new scientific era where the AI world, the software world is coming into far greater mental contact, and physical contact, with the hardware world and the physical world of manufacturing. And it's being driven by corporate rivalry amongst not just the terra cap, you know, super large cap companies, but also between public and private companies and competition. And then it's being also fueled by geopolitical rivalry and social issues as well, on a global scale. So, we're actually creating an entirely new species. This robotic species that yes, is expressed in many ways on our roads in China and globally – but it's just the beginning. In terms of whether it's hardware, software, or something else – it's all the above. What we've done with a across 40 sectors at Morgan Stanley is to divide the robot, whether it flies, drives, walks, crawls, whatever – we divide it into the brain and the body. And the brain can be divided into sensors and memory and compute and foundational models and simulation. The body can be broken up into actuators, the kind of motor neuron capability, the connective tissue, the batteries. And then there's integrators, that kind of do it all – the hardware, the software, the integration, the training, the data, the compute, the energy, the infrastructure. And so, what's so exciting about this opportunity for our clients is there's no one way to do it. There's no one region to do it. So, stick with us folks. There's a lot of – not just revenue opportunities – but alpha-generating opportunities as well. Tim Hsiao: We are seeing OEMs pivot from cars to humanoids and the electric vertical takeoff in the landing vehicles or EVOTL. Our listeners may have seen videos of these vehicles, which are like helicopters and are designed for urban air mobility. How realistic is this transition and what's the timeline for commercialization in your view? Adam Jonas: Anything that can be electrified will be electrified. Anything that can be automated will be automated. And the advancement of the state of the art in robotaxis and Level 2, Level 3, Level 4+ autonomy is directly transferrable to aviation. There's obviously different regulatory and safety aspects of aviation, the air traffic control and the FAA and the equivalent regulatory bodies in Europe and in China that we will have to navigate, pun intended. But we will get there. We will get there ultimately because taking these technologies of automation and electronic and software defined technology into the low altitude economy will be a superior experience and a vastly cheaper experience. Point to point, on a per person, per passenger, per ton, per mile basis. So the Wright brothers can finally get excited that their invention from 1903, quite a long time ago, could finally, really change how humans live and move around the surface of the earth; even beyond, few tens of thousands of commercial and private aircraft that exist today. Tim Hsiao: The other key questions or key focus for investors is about the business model. So, until now, the auto industry has centered on the car ownership model. But with this new technology, we've been hearing a new model, as you just mentioned, the shared mobility and the autonomous driving fleet. Experts say it could be major disruptor in this sector. So, what's your take on how this will evolve in developed and emerging markets? Adam Jonas: Well, we think when you take autonomous and shared and electric mobility all the way – that transportation starts to resemble a utility like electricity or water or telecom; where the incremental mile traveled is maybe not quite free, but very, very, very low cost. Maybe only; the marginal cost of the mile traveled may only just be the energy required to deliver that mile, whether it's a renewable or non-renewable energy source. And the relationship with a car will change a lot. Individual vehicle ownership may go the way of horse ownership. There will be some, but it'll be seen as a nostalgic privilege, if you will, to own our own car. Others would say, I don't want to own my own car. This is crazy. Why would anyone want to do that? So, it's going to really transform the business model. It will, I think, change the structure of the industry in terms of the number of participants and what they do. Not everybody will win. Some of the existing players can win. But they might have to make some uncomfortable trade-offs for survival. And for others, the car – let's say terrestrial vehicle modality may just be a small part of a broader robotics and then physical embodiment of AI that they're propagating; where auto will just be a really, really just one tendril of many, many dozens of different tendrils. So again, it's beginning now. This process will take decades to play out. But investors with even, you know, two-to-three or three-to-five-year view can take steps today to adjust their portfolios and position themselves. Tim Hsiao: The other key focus of the investor over the market would definitely be the geopolitical dynamics. So, Morgan Stanley expects to see a lot of what you call coopetition between global OEMs and the Chinese suppliers. What do you mean by coopetition and how do you see this dynamic playing out, especially in terms of the tech deflation? Adam Jonas: In order to reduce the United States dependency on China, we need to work with China. So, there's the irony here. Look, in my former life of being an auto analyst, every auto CEO I speak to does not believe that tariffs will limit Chinese involvement in the global auto industry, including onshore in the United States. Many are actively seeking to work with the Chinese through various structures to give them an on-ramp to move onshore to produce their, in many cases, superior products, but in U.S. factories on U.S. shores with American workers. That might lead to some, again, trade-offs. But our view within Morgan Stanley and working with you is we do think that there are on-ramps for Chinese hardware, Chinese knowhow, and Chinese electrical vehicle architecture, but while still being sensitive to the dual-purpose AI sensitivities around software and the AI networks that, for national security reasons, nations want to have more control over. And I actually am hopeful and seeing some signs already that that's going to happen and play out over the next six to 12 months. Tim Hsiao: I would say it's clear that the road ahead isn't just smarter; it's faster, more connected, and increasingly autonomous. Adam Jonas: That's correct, Tim. I could not agree more. Thanks for joining me on the show today. Tim Hsiao: Thanks, Adam. Always a pleasure. Adam Jonas: And to our listeners, thanks for listening. Until next time, stay human and keep driving forward. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

With this Wednesday marking the average peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, the Carolina Weather Group is revisiting some of our most memorable hurricane interviews, including WCNC forecaster Larry Sprinkle, former WBTV chief meteorologist Eric Thomas, and then-National Hurricane Center Director Ken Graham, who now oversees all of the National Weather Service. In 2019, Scotty Powell, Evan Fisher, and Chris Jackson visits the NOAA's Hurricane Awareness Tour at Charlotte Douglas International Airport. MERCH: https://carolinaweathergroup.qbstores.com/ LEAVE A TIP: https://streamelements.com/carolinawxgroup/tip️ SUBSCRIBE TO OUR PODCAST: https://anchor.fm/carolinaweather SUPPORT US ON PATREON: https://patreon.com/carolinaweathergroup VISIT OUR WEBSITE: https://carolinaweathergroup.comThe Carolina Weather Group operates a weekly talk show of the same name. Broadcasting each week from the Carolinas, the show is dedicated to covering weather, science, technology, and more with newsmakers from the field of atmospheric science. With co-hosts across both North Carolina and South Carolina, the show may closely feature both NC weather and SC weather, but the topics are universally enjoyable for any weather fan. Join us as we talk about weather, environment, the atmosphere, space travel, and all the technology that makes it possible.

Join Msgr. John Esseff as he reflects on his experiences with Mother Teresa on the eve of her canonization! Several of the stories he has not shared on any of his previous programs. Rather than be "admirers" of Mother Teresa, Msgr. Esseff asks all of us to pray to become "imitators" of this little one of God's children who has now become one of His great saints! Carrier of God's Tender Love and Mercy Lord Jesus, merciful Face of the Father, you came to give us the Good News of the Father's mercy and tenderness. We thank you for the gift of our dearest Mother, Blessed Teresa of Calcutta, who will be canonized in this Jubilee Year of Mercy. You chose her to be your presence, your love and compassion to the brokenhearted, the unwanted, the abandoned and the dying. She responded wholeheartedly to your cry, ‘I Thirst,' by the holiness of her life and humble works of love to the poorest of the poor. We pray, through her intercession, for the grace to experience your merciful love and share it in our own families, communities and with all our suffering brothers and sisters. Help us to give our “hearts to love and hands to serve” after the example of Mother Teresa. Lord Jesus, bless every member of our family, our parish, our diocese, our country, especially those most in need, that we all may be transformed by your merciful love. Amen. Text © Mother Teresa Center of the Missionaries of Charity The post Special Encore: The Canonization of St. Teresa of Calcutta – Building a Kingdom of Love with Msgr. John Esseff – Discerning Hearts Podcast appeared first on Discerning Hearts Catholic Podcasts.

This podcast episode elucidates the intricate nuances of grilling as we approach Labor Day, emphasizing the imperative of mastering foundational techniques to enhance one's culinary prowess. We are joined by the esteemed Meathead from AmazingRibs.com, who shares invaluable insights on effectively utilizing a digital thermometer and employing two-zone cooking as essential methodologies for achieving optimal results. The dialogue further traverses the significance of seasoning, specifically the unparalleled role of salt in amplifying flavors while preserving moisture within various meats. As we prepare for the convivial gatherings typical of this holiday, we also explore diverse grilling inspirations, ranging from classic barbecue fare to innovative vegetable and fruit dishes, ensuring that all listeners are equipped to elevate their grilling game. Join us as we delve into these topics, offering practical advice designed to enrich any Labor Day celebration.Links referenced in this episode:amazingribs.comoregondungeness.orgpaintedhillsbeef.comheritagesteel.usCompanies mentioned in this episode: AmazingRibs.com Painted Hills Natural Beef Oregon Dungeness Crab Commission Heritage Steel Mentioned in this episode:nullnullThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: OP3 - https://op3.dev/privacy

Original Release Date: July 11, 2025As U.S. retailers manage the impacts of increased tariffs, they have taken a number of approaches to avoid raising prices for customers. Our Head of Corporate Strategy Andrew Sheets and our Head of U.S. Consumer Retail and Credit Research Jenna Giannelli discuss whether they can continue to do so.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Jenna Giannelli: And I'm Jenna Giannelli, Head of U.S. Consumer and Retail Credit Research.Andrew Sheets: And today on the podcast, we're going to dig into one of the biggest conundrums in the market today. Where and when are tariffs going to show up in prices and margins?It's Friday, July 11th at 10am in New York.Jenna, it's great to catch up with you today because I think you can really bring some unique perspective into one of the biggest puzzles that we're facing in the market today. Even with all of these various pauses and delays, the U.S. has imposed historically large tariffs on imports. And we're seeing a rapid acceleration in the amount of money collected from those tariffs by U.S. customs. These are real hard dollars that importers – or somebody else – are paying. Yet we haven't seen these tariffs show up to a significant degree in official data on prices – with recent inflation data relatively modest. And overall stock and credit markets remain pretty strong and pretty resilient, suggesting less effect.So, are these tariffs just less impactful than expected, or is there something else going on here with timing and severity? And given your coverage of the consumer and retail sectors, which is really at the center of this tariff debate – what do you think is going on?Jenna Giannelli: So yes, this is a key question and one that is dominating a lot of our client conversations. At a high level, I'd point to a few things. First, there's a timing issue here. So, when tariffs were first announced, retailers were already sitting on three to four months worth of inventory, just due to natural industry lead times. And they were able to draw down on this product.This is mostly what they sold in 1Q and likely into 2Q, which is why you haven't seen much margin or pricing impact thus far. Companies – we also saw them start to stock up heavily on inventory before the tariffs and at the lower pause rate tariffs, which is the product you referenced that we're seeing coming in now. This is really going to help mitigate margin pressure in the second quarter that you still have this lower cost inventory flowing through.On top of this timing consideration, retailers – we've just seen utilizing a range of mitigation measures, right? So, whether it's canceled or pause shipments from China, a shifting production mix or sourcing exposure in the short run, particularly before the pause rate on China. And then really leaning into just whether it's product mix shifts, cost savings elsewhere in the PNL, and vendor negotiations, right? They're really leaning into everything in their toolbox that they can.Pricing too has been talked about as something that is an option, but the option of last resort. We have heard it will be utilized, but very tactically and very surgically, as we think about the back half of the year. When you put this all together, how much impact is it having? On average from retailers that we heard from in the first quarter, they thought they would be able to mitigate about half of the expected tariff headwind, which is actually a bit better than we were expecting.Finally, I'll just comment on your comment regarding market performance. While you're right in that the overall equity and credit markets have held up well, year-to-date, retail equities and credit have fared worse than their respective indices. What's interesting, actually, is that credit though has significantly outperformed retail equities, which is a relationship we think should converge or correct as we move throughout the balance of the year.Andrew Sheets: So, Jenna, retailers saw this coming. They've been pulling various levers to mitigate the impact. You mentioned kind of the last lever that they want to pull is prices, raising prices, which is the macro thing that we care about. The thing that would actually show up in inflation.How close are we though to kind of running out of other options for these guys? That is, the only thing left is they can start raising prices?Jenna Giannelli: So closer is what I would say. We're likely not going to see a huge impact in 2Q, more likely as we head into 3Q and more heavily into the all-important fourth quarter holiday season. This is really when those higher cost goods are going to be flowing through the PNL and retailers need to offset this as they've utilized a lot of their other mitigation strategies. They've moved what they could move. They've negotiated where they could, they've cut where they could cut. And again, as this last step, it will be to try and raise price.So, who's going to have the most and least success? In our universe, we think it's going to be more difficult to pass along price in some of the more historically deflationary categories like apparel and footwear. Outside of what is a really strong brand presence, which in our universe, historically hasn't been the case.Also, in some of the higher ticket or more durable goods categories like home goods, sporting goods, furniture, we think it'll be challenging as well here to pass along higher costs. Where it's going to be less of an issue is in our Staples universe, where what we'd put is less discretionary categories like Beauty, Personal Care, which is part of the reason why we've been cautious on retail, and neutral and consumer products when we think about sector allocation.Andrew Sheets: And when do you think this will show up? Is it a third quarter story? A fourth quarter story?Jenna Giannelli: I think this is going to really start to show up in the third quarter, and more heavily into the fourth quarter, the all-important holiday season.Andrew Sheets: Yeah, and I think that's what's really interesting about the impact of this backup to the macro. Again, returning to the big picture is I think one of the most important calls that Morgan Stanley economists have is that inflation, which has been coming down somewhat so far this year is going to pick back up in August and September and October. And because it's going to pick back up, the Federal Reserve is not going to cut interest rates anymore this year because of that inflation dynamic.So, this is a big debate in the market. Many investors disagree. But I think what you're talking about in terms of there are some very understandable reasons, maybe why prices haven't changed so far. But that those price hikes could be coming have real macroeconomic implications.So, you know, maybe though, something to just close on – is to bring this to the latest headlines. You know, we're now back it seems, in a market where every day we log onto our screens, and we see a new headline of some new tariff being announced or suggested towards countries. Where do you think those announcements, so far are relative to what retailers are expecting – kind of what you think is in guidance?Jenna Giannelli: Sure. So, look what we've seen of late; the recent tariff headlines are certainly higher or worse, I think, than what investors in management teams were expecting. For Vietnam, less so; I'd say it was more in line. But for most elsewhere, in Asia, particularly Southeast Asia, the rates that are set to go in effect on August 1st, as we now understand them, are higher or worse than management teams were expecting.Recall that while guidance did show up in many flavors in the first quarter, so whether withdrawn guidance or lowered guidance. For those that did factor in tariffs to their guide, most were factoring in either pause rate tariffs or tariff rates that were at least lower than what was proposed on Liberation Day, right?So, what's the punchline here? I think despite some of the revisions we've already seen, there are more to come. To put some numbers around this, if we look at our group of retail consumer cohort, credits, consensus expectations for calling for EBITDA in our universe to be down around 5 percent year-over-year. If we apply tariff rates as we know them today for a half-year headwind starting August 1st, this number should be down around 15 percent year-over-year on a gross basis…Andrew Sheets: So, three times as much.Jenna Giannelli: Pretty significant. Exactly. And so, while there might be mitigation efforts, there might be some pricing passed along, this is still a pretty significant delta between where consensus is right now and what we know tariff rates to be today – could imply for earnings in the second half.Andrew Sheets: Jenna, thanks for taking the time to talk.Jenna Giannelli: My pleasure. Thank you.Andrew Sheets: And thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts to the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Alan Dershowitz SUMMER SPECIAL ENCORE

I am re-releasing one of our most talked about episodes because EVERYONE needs to hear this. So if you missed it or would like a "re-visit" (as we call it in wine tasting)... I'm bringing one of our first and most popular episodes to the top of our now 80 episode catalog!I first met Dr Hoby Wedler when he led my wine education team and I through his signature “Tasting in the Dark” experience. We were blindfolded and tasting the wines we thought we knew very well, in a whole new light (or lack thereof). Dr. Hoby Wedler is a Chemist, Sensory Expert, Motivational Speaker and Entrepreneur who happens to be blind since birth.After your virtual time with Hoby, you'll have a new perspective on how to take in the world around you, especially when it comes to things like Seeing Flavor and Tasting Color!You'll hear about: The call from Francis Ford Coppola that inspired him to create Tasting in the DarkHis first chemistry teacher who questioned how chemistry would “work for him”, until he told her “No one can see atoms”…. (Mic drop)His thought on the questions around the health benefits of wineHow he identifies colorHis uncensored reaction when I snuck my newly released 2021 Sollevato Sangiovese into our “blind tasting”You can find and follow Hoby here!www.hobywedler.comIG: @hobywedlerEmail him at hoby@hobywedler.comGet our Sip Spotlight Wines Here!Wine #1- Hoby's Choice: Chianti ClassicoWine #4 -The trick I played on him with my own wine: Sollevato SangioveseIf you'd like to Support the Podcast, you can buy me or Hoby a glass of wine, we would be so grateful!Nikki's Links:Follow me on Instagram to get the scoop on upcoming episodes and behind the scenes looks!My Super Tuscan Inspired Blend, Sollevato "Fortunato" is available to be shipped to most US States. (Use the code PODLISTENER for 10% off.) It's a delicious, medium bodied, aromatic red wine that is perfect with pizza, pasta and your charcuterie spread!Our 2022 Sollevato Sangiovese just took the Gold Medal at the Sunset International Wine Competition! Get yours here! (Use the code PODLISTENER for 10% off.)Enjoy some of MY FAVORITE THINGS from our Sponsors:You NEED some delicious California Olive Oil from our awesome sponsor American Olive Farmer. Use code SipWithNikki for $10 off your order!Check out Sena Sea's website to get your hands on some beautiful wild-caught Alaskan fish shipped right to your door! Use code sipandsea for 10% off your order and sign up for their email list (great recipes!) and...

I'm re- releasing on of our most listened to episodes from Jan 2024 with additional edits and bonus content!If you've ever felt a bit (or totally) overwhelmed by all of the wine bottles staring back at you from their store shelves, you're going to want to listen in as I give you some simple hacks to help you pick the right wine each time. I'll break down:How to decipher wine labels to look for clues to pick your perfect styleHow the bottle shape can clue you in as to what's inside if the label isn't obvious What the location in the store (and even on the shelf) can tell you about the wineThese quick and simple ideas should help you feel more confident next time you find yourself in the wine store so you don't just select your wine by the coolest label (which might be ok too, as long as you like what's inside!)Resources I mentioned: Grab my Wine Tips Cheat Sheet HereThe App I love is VIVINOOne of my favorite wine books is The Wine Bible. You can get the newest edition on Amazon hereNikki's Links:Follow me on Instagram to get the scoop on upcoming episodes My Super Tuscan Inspired Blend, Sollevato "Fortunato" is available to be shipped to most US States. (Use the code PODLISTENER for 10% off.) It's a delicious, medium bodied, aromatic red wine that is perfect with pizza, pasta and your charcuterie spread!Enjoy some of MY FAVORITE THINGS from our Sponsors:You NEED some delicious California Olive Oil from our awesome sponsor American Olive Farmer. Use code SipWithNikki for $10 off your order!Check out Sena Sea's website to get your hands on some beautiful wild-caught Alaskan fish shipped right to your door! Use code sipandsea for 10% off your order and sign up for their email list (great recipes!) and be entered to win a monthly $50 gift card drawing.Ways to help and support: If you'd like to Support the Podcast, you can buy me a glass of wine I would be so grateful! (it's like leaving a tip when you've had great service).Please consider Rating, Reviewing and Following Us on Apple Podcasts!“Delightful and fun. Now I love my Monday Commute” (kpjscarbs). Sound like you? I'd love for you to leave your own review!How? Click Here, scroll to the bottom, tap to rate with Stars and select "write a review" and let us know what you loved most about this episode! If you haven't already, please FOLLOW the podcast! We have so many more exciting episodes coming out, and if you're not following you might MISS them! Click here to

*Originally aired 5 years ago* Being a first responder is not an easy job. Putting your life on the line, day after day for those you serve. We entrust these brave men and women to run into the gates of hell and we don't really get to see The Human Side and how certain things can affect them. They are exposed to things that most of us average folks will never have to experience in our lifetime. Co-Host - Retired Major of the Oklahoma City Fire Department and Oklahoma City Bombing Responder, Chris Fields Oklahoma City suffered the Deadliest Domestic Terrorist Attack in American History, killing 168 men, women and children and injuring close to 800. Chris Fields was there front and center, serving his community as a firefighter. He was captured in a photo that became an iconic symbol of the Oklahoma City Bombing in 1995, when he was cradling the body of 1 year old Baylee Almon. He served the citizens of Oklahoma City for over 31 years and has now dedicated his life to speak to other 1st responders, discussing the brutal realities of a life spent responding to citizens in their darkest hours. He also shares his personal story of how that day in 1995, along with other traumas, took a toll on his life and his family. Having suffered in silence for many years, he now shares how he found his way out of the darkness, in the hopes of helping others to avoid the failure and pitfalls, along with encouraging them to reach out when they need help. www.chrisfields.org

In this episode, we dive deep into the art of "reading investors' minds" without relying on gimmicks or guesswork. We explore how practical personality profiling and addressing the elephants in the room can transform your conversations with investors. By understanding who you're talking to, rather than focusing on finding the perfect words, you can tailor your message to resonate more effectively.  We discuss different personality profiling methods, the importance of research, and how to communicate in a way that helps investors feel seen, heard, and understood. Plus, we explore the balance between being adaptable without losing your authentic self. Key Takeaways: Personality profiling is crucial to communicating effectively with investors Who you're speaking to is more important than “the perfect message” Discover profiling tools you can use Always address the elephants in the room How to surface hidden objections Master adaptive communication while staying true to your core values Tips to build stronger, more trusting relationships Useful links and resources: https://findmoreinvestors.com/apply Yakov Smart's new book 'Attracting Investors' on Amazon   Join our new capital raising community group here: https://www.facebook.com/groups/capitalraisingtalkwithcapitalraisingprosgroup   Free Trainings on “How To Raise More Capital & Find High Net-Worth Investors on Auto-Pilot”: http://findmoreinvestors.com/capital   Enter our monthly raffle by leaving a 5-star review and emailing a screenshot to: reviews@findmoreinvestors.com   Connect with Yakov: https://www.linkedin.com/in/yakovsavitskiy/ https://www.facebook.com/yakov.smart3   The following music was used for this media project: Music: Positive Fat Bass Intro Loop by WinnieTheMoog Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/6093-positive-fat-bass-intro-loop License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license Artist website: https://linktr.ee/taigasoundprod   The following music was used for this media project: Music: Just Keep Going (Loopable) by chilledmusic Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/7245-just-keep-going-loopable License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license   The following music was used for this media project: Music: Business Of Dreams by MusicLFiles Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9392-business-of-dreams License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license Artist website: https://cemmusicproject.wixsite.com/musiclibraryfiles  

The progressive and disruptive social movements of the 1960s and 70s had a huge impact on the Broadway Musical and were reflected back into the culture by them. These include the Civil Rights movement, Women's Liberation, Black Power, and the Gay Liberation Movement. The Stonewall Rebellion in 1969 brought gay issues into the mainstream and during the 1970s LGBTQ+ people would become “out, loud, and proud” in significant numbers. Of course, it makes sense that this new visibility and feeling of liberation would be felt on Broadway where there had always been a large representation of queer people throughout the industry, including in positions of leadership. As a result queer characters and stories began appearing on Broadway -- especially in plays -- but also in a few musicals as well. In this episode I explore the growing visibility of openly queer content on Broadway in musicals such as Hair, Coco, Applause, Seesaw, A Chorus Line, La Cage Aux Folles, and the works of William Finn. I also recount the devastating effect that the AIDS Crisis had on Broadway during the 1980s and 90s when a whole generation of creative talent was eliminated or sidelined by the disease.  AIDS claimed the lives of hundreds of actors, singers, musicians, stage managers, production assistants, and designers -- as well as scores of dancers that had been trained by Bennett, Fosse, Champion, and Tune and might have one day become influential directors and choreographers themselves. The devastation of AIDS opened the door to the “British Invasion” that would soon dominate Broadway. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Original Release Date November 22, 2024: Our US Public Policy Strategist Ariana Salvatore and Chief Latin America Equity Strategist Nikolaj Lippmann discuss what Trump's victory could mean for new trade relationships.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: 2024 was a year of transition for economies and global markets. Central banks began easing interest rates, U.S. elections signaled significant policy change, and Generative AI made a quantum leap in adoption and development.Thank you for listening throughout 2024, as we navigated the issues and events that shaped financial markets, and society. We hope you'll join us next year as we continue to bring you the most up to date information on the financial world. This week, please enjoy some encores of episodes over the last few months and we'll be back with all new episodes in January. From all of us on Thoughts on the Market, Happy Holidays, and a very Happy New Year. Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Morgan Stanley's US Public Policy Strategist.Nikolaj Lippmann: And I'm Nik Lippmann, Morgan Stanley's Chief Latin American Equity Strategist.Ariana Salvatore: Today, we're talking about the impact of the US election on Mexico's economy, financial markets, and its trade relationships with both the US and China.It's Friday, November 22nd at 10am in New York.The US election has generated a lot of debate around global trade, and now that Trump has won, all eyes are on tariffs. Nik, how much is this weighing on Mexico investors?Nikolaj Lippmann: It's interesting because there's kind of no real consensus here. I'd say international and US investors are generally rather apprehensive about getting in front of the Trump risk in Mexico; while, interestingly enough, most Mexico-based investors and many Latin American investors think Trump is kind of good news for Mexico, and in many cases, even better news than Biden or Harris. Net, net, Mexican peso has sold off. Mexico's now down 25 per cent in dollar terms year to date, while it was flat to up three, four, 5 per cent around May. So, we've already seen a lot being priced then.Ariana, what are your expectations for Trump's trade policy with regards to Mexico?Ariana Salvatore: So, Mexico has been a big part of the trade debate, especially as we consider this question of whether or not Mexico represents a bridge or a buffer between the US and China. On the tariff front, we've been clear about our expectations that a wide range of outcomes is possible here, especially because the president can do so much without congressional approval.Specifically on Mexico, Trump has in the past threatened an increase in exchange for certain policy concessions. For example, back in 2019, he threatened a 5 per cent tariff if the Mexican government didn't send emergency authorities to the southern border. We think given the salience of immigration as a topic this election cycle, we can easily envision a scenario again in which those tariff threats re-emerge.However, there's really a balance to strike here because the US is Mexico's main trading partner. That means any changes to current policy will have a substantial impact.So, Nik, how are you thinking about these changes? Are all tariff plans necessarily a negative? Or do you see any potential opportunities for Mexico here?Nikolaj Lippmann: Look, I think there are clear risks, but here are my thoughts. It would be very hard for the United States to de-risk from China and de-risk from Mexico simultaneously. Here it becomes really important to double-click on the differences in the manufacturing ecosystems in North America versus Southeast Asia and China.The North American model is really very integrated. US companies are by a mile the biggest investor. In Mexico – and Mexican exports to the US kind of match the Mexican import categories – the products go back and forth. Mexico has evolved from a place of assembly to a manufacturing ecosystem. 25 years ago, it was more about sending products down, paint them blue, put a lid on it. Now there's much more value add.The link, however, is still alive. It's a play on enhancing US competitiveness. You can kind of, as you did, call it a China buffer; a fender that helps protect US competitiveness. But by the end of the day, I think integration and alignment is going to be the key here.Ariana Salvatore: But of course, it's not just the direct trade relationship between the US and Mexico. We need to also consider the global geopolitical landscape, and specifically this question of the role of China. What's Mexico's current trade policy like with China?Nikolaj Lippmann: Another great question, Ariana, and I think this is the key. There is growing evidence that China is trying to use Mexico as a China bridge.And I think this is an area where we will see the biggest adjustments or need for realignment. This is a debate we've been following. We saw, with interest, that Mexico introduced first a 25 per cent tariff and then a 35 per cent tariff on Chinese imports. And saw this as the initial signs of growing alignment between the two countries.However, Mexican import from China never really dropped. So, we started looking at like the complicated math saying 35 per cent times $115 billion of import. You know, best case scenario, Mexico should be collecting $40 billion from tariffs; that's huge and almost unrealistic number for Mexico. Even half of that would go a long way to solve fiscal challenges in that country.However, when we started looking at the actual tax collection from Chinese imports, it was closer to $3 billion, as we highlighted in a note with our Mexico economist just recently. There's just multiple discounts and exemptions to effective tariffs at neither 25 per cent nor 35 per cent, but actually closer to 2.5 [or] 3 per cent. I think there's a problem with Chinese content in Mexican exports, and I think it's likely to be an area that policymakers will examine more closely. Why not drive-up US or North American content?Ariana Salvatore: So, it sounds like what you're saying is that there is a political, or rhetorical at least, alignment between the US and Mexico when it comes to China. But the reality is that the policy implementation is not yet there.We know that there's currently nothing in the USMCA treaty that prevents Mexico from importing goods from China. But a lot has changed over the past four years, even since the pandemic. So, looking forward, do you expect Mexico's policy vis-a-vis China to change after Trump takes office?Nikolaj Lippmann: I think, I certainly think so, and I think this is again; this is going to be the key. As you mentioned, there's nothing in the USMCA treaty that prevents Mexico from buying the stuff from China. And it's not a customs union. Mexican consumers, much like American consumers, like to buy cheap stuff.However, the geopolitics that you refer to is important. And when I reflect, frankly, on the bilateral relationship between the two countries, I think Mexican policymakers need to perhaps pause and think a little bit about things like the spirit of the treaty and not just the letter of the treaty; and also about how to maintain public opinion support in the United States.By the end of the day, when we see what has happened with regards to China after the pandemic, it has been a significant change in political consensus and public opinion. When I think Americans are not necessarily interested in just using Mexico as a China bridge for Chinese products.During the first Trump administration, the NAFTA agreement was renegotiated as the US Mexico Canada agreement, the USMCA, that took effect or took force in mid 2020. This agreement will come under review in 2026.Ariana, what are the expectations for the future of this agreement under the Trump administration?Ariana Salvatore: So, I think this USMCA review that's coming up in 2026 is going to be a really critical litmus test of the US-Mexico relationship, and we're going to learn a lot about this China bridge or buffer question that you mentioned. Just for some very brief context, that agreement as you mentioned was signed in 2020, but it includes a clause that lets all parties evaluate the agreement six years into a 16-year time horizon.So, at that point, they can decide to extend the agreement for another 16 years. Or to conduct a joint review on an annual basis until that original 16 years lapses. So, although the agreement will stay in force until at least 2036, the review period, which is around June of [20]26, provides an opportunity for the signing parties to provide recommendations or propose changes to the agreement short of a full-scale renegotiation.We do see some overlapping objectives between the two parties. For example, things like updating the foundation for digital trade and AI, ensuring the endurance of labor protections, and addressing Mexico's energy sector. But Trump's approach likely will involve confronting the auto EV disputes and could possibly introduce an element of immigration policy within the revision. We also definitely expect this theme of Chinese investment in Mexico to feature heavily in the USMCA review discussions.Finally, Nik, keeping in mind everything that we've discussed today, with global supply chains getting rewired post the pandemic, Mexico has been a beneficiary of the nearshoring trend. Do you think this is going to change as we look ahead?Nikolaj Lippmann: So, look, we [are] still underweight Mexico, but I think risk ultimately biased with the upside over time with regards to trade.We need evidence to be able to lay it out, these scenarios; Mexico could end up doing quite well with Trump. But much work needs to be done south of the border with regards to all the areas that we just mentioned there, Ariana.When we reflect on this over the next couple of years, there's a couple of things that really stand out. Number one is that first wave of reshoring or nearshoring, which was really focused on brownfield. It was bringing our manufacturing ecosystems where we already had existing infrastructure.What is potentially next, and what we're going to be watching in terms of sort of policy maker incentives and so on, will be some of the greenfield manufacturing ecosystems. That could involve things like IT hardware, maybe EV batteries, and a couple of other really important sectors.Ariana Salvatore: And that's something we might get some insight into when we hear personnel appointments from President-elect Trump over the coming months. Nik, thanks so much for taking the time to talk.Nikolaj Lippmann: Thank you very much, Arianna.Ariana Salvatore: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen, and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Original Release Date November 26, 2024: Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson joins Andrew Pauker of the U.S. Equity Strategy team to break down the key issues for equity markets ahead of 2025, including the impact of potential deregulation and tariffs.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: 2024 was a year of transition for economies and global markets. Central banks began easing interest rates, U.S. elections signaled significant policy change, and Generative AI made a quantum leap in adoption and development.Thank you for listening throughout 2024, as we navigated the issues and events that shaped financial markets, and society. We hope you'll join us next year as we continue to bring you the most up to date information on the financial world. This week, please enjoy some encores of episodes over the last few months and we'll be back with all new episodes in January. From all of us on Thoughts on the Market, Happy Holidays, and a very Happy New Year. Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist.Andrew Pauker: And I'm Andrew Pauker from our US Equity Strategy Team.Mike Wilson: Today we'll discuss our 2025 outlook for US equities.It's Tuesday, November 26th at 5pm.So let's get after it.Andrew Pauker: Mike, we're forecasting a year-end 2025 price target of 6,500 for the S&P 500. That's about 9 percent upside from current levels. Walk us through the drivers of that price target from an earnings and valuation standpoint.Mike Wilson: Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, this is really just rolling forward what we did this summer, which is we started to incorporate our economists' soft-landing views. And, of course, our rate strategist view for 10-year yields, which, you know, factors into valuation.We really didn't change any of our earnings forecast. That's where we've been very accurate. What we've been not accurate is on the multiple. And I think a lot of clients have also -- investors -- have been probably a little bit too conservative on their multiple assumption. And so, we went back and looked at, you know, periods when earnings growth is above average, which is what we're expecting. And that's just about 8 percent; anything north of that. Plus, when the Fed is actually cutting rates, which was not the case this past summer, it's just very difficult to see multiples go down. So, we actually do have about 5 percent depreciation in our multiple assumption on a year-over-year basis, but still it's very high relative to history.But if the base case plays out, but from an economic standpoint and from a rate standpoint, it's unlikely earnings rates are going to come down. So, then we basically can get all of the appreciation from our earnings forecast for about, you know, 10-12 percent; a little bit of a discount from multiples, that gets you your 9 percent upside.I just want to, you know, make sure listeners understand that the macro-outcomes are still very uncertain. And so just like this year, you know, we maybe pivot back and forth throughout the year … as [it] becomes [clear], you know, what the outcome is actually going to be.For example, growth could be better; growth could be worse; rates could be higher; the Fed may not cut rates; they may have to raise rates again if inflation comes back. So, I would just, you know, make sure people understand it's not going to be a straight line no matter what happens. And we're going to try to navigate that with, you know, our style sector picks.Andrew Pauker: There are a number of new policy dynamics to think through post the election that may have a significant impact on markets as we head into 2025, Mike. What are the potential policy changes that you think could be most impactful for equities next year?Mike Wilson: Yeah, and I think a lot of this started to get discounted into the markets this fall, you know, the prediction polls were kinda leaning towards a Republican win, starting really in June – and it kind of went back and forth and then it really picked up steam in September and October. And the thing that the markets, equity market, are most excited about I would say, is this idea of deregulation. You know, that's something President-elect Trump has talked about. The Republicans seem to be on board with that. That sort of business friendly, if you will, kind of a repeat of his first term.I would say on the negative side what markets are maybe wary about, of course, is tariffs. But here there's a lot of uncertainty too. We obviously got a tweet last night from President-elect Trump, and it was, you know, 10 percent additional tariffs on certain things. And there's just a lot of confusion. Some stocks sold off on that. But remember a lot of stocks rallied yesterday on the news of Scott Bessent being announced as Treasury Secretary because he's maybe not going to be as tough on tariffs.So, what I view the next two months as is sort of a trial period where we're going to see a lot of announcements going out. And then the people in the cabinet positions who are appointed along with the President-elect are going to look at how the market reacts. And they're going to want to try to, you know, think about that in the context of how they're going to propose policy when they actually take office.So, a lot of volatility over the next two months as these announcements are kind of floated out there as trial balloons. And then, of course, you also have the enforcement of immigration and the impact there on growth and also labor supply and labor costs. And that could be a net negative in the first half of next year. And so, look, it's going to be about the sequencing. Those are the two easy ones that you can see – tariffs of some form, and of course, immigration enforcement. And those are probably the two biggest potential negatives in the first half of next year.Andrew Pauker: Mike, the title of our Outlook is “Stay Nimble Amid Changing Market Leadership,” and I think that reflects our mentality when it comes to remaining focused on capturing the leadership changes under the surface of the market. We rotated from a defensive posture over the summer to a more pro-cyclical stance in the fall. Talk about our latest views when it comes to positioning across styles, themes, and sectors here.Mike Wilson: Yeah, I mean, you know, you have to understand that that pivot was not about the election as much as it was about kind of the economy, moving from the risk of a hard landing, which people were worried about this summer to, soft landing again. And then of course we got the Fed to, you know, aggressively begin a new rate cutting cycle with 50 basis points, which was a bit of a surprise given, you know, the context of a still decent labor markets.That was the main reason for kind of the cyclical pivot, and then, of course, the election outcome sort of turbocharges some of that. So that's why we're sticking with it for now.So, to be more specific, what we basically did was we went to quality cyclical rotation. What does that mean? It means, you know, we prefer things like financials, maybe industrials, kind of a close second from a sector standpoint. But this quality feature we think is important for people to consider because interest rates are still pretty high. You know, balance sheets are still a little stretched and, you know, price levels are still high.So that means that lower quality businesses -- and the stocks of those lower quality businesses -- are probably a higher risk than we want to assume right now. But going into year end first and in 2025, we're going to stick with what we've sort of been recommending. On the defensive side. We didn't abandon all of them – because of , you know, we don't know how it's going to play out. So, we kept Utilities as an overweight because it has some offensive properties as well – most notably lever to kind of this, power deficiency within the United States. And that, of course with deregulation, a new twist on that could be things like natural gas, deployment of, you know, natural gas resources, which would help pipelines, LNG facilities potentially, and also, new ways to drive electricity production.So, with that, Andrew, why don't you maybe dig in a little bit deeper on our financials column, and why it's not just, you know, about the election and kind of a rotation, but there's actually fundamental drivers here.Andrew Pauker: Yeah, so Financials remains our top sector pick, following our upgrade in early October. And the drivers of that view are – a rebounding capital markets backdrop, strong earnings revisions, and the potential for an acceleration in buybacks into next year. And then post the election, expectation for deregulation can also continue to drive performance for the sector in addition to those fundamental catalysts. And then finally, even with the outperformance that we've seen for the group, over the last month and a half or so, relative valuation remains on demand – and kind of the 50th percentile of historical levels.So, Mike, I want to wrap up by spending a minute on investor feedback to our outlook. Which aspects of our view have you gotten the most questions on? Where do investors agree and where do they disagree?Mike Wilson: Yeah, I mean, it's sort of been ongoing because, as we noted, we really pivoted, more constructively on kind of a pro-cyclical basis a while ago. And the pushback then is the same as it is now, which is that equities are expensive. And I mean, quite frankly, the reason we pivoted to some of these more cyclical areas is because they're not as expensive. But that doesn't take away from the fact that stocks are pricey. And so, people just want to understand this analysis that, you know, we did this time around, which kind of just shows why multiples can stay higher.They do appreciate that, you know, things can change. So, you know, we need to be, you know, cognizant of that. I would say, there's also debate around small caps. You know, we're neutral on small caps; we upgraded that about the same time after having been underweight for several years.I think, you know, people really want to get behind that. It's been a; it's been a trade that people have gotten wrong, repeatedly over the last couple years trying to buy small caps. This time it seems like there may be some more behind it. We agree. That's why we went to neutral. And I think, you know, there are people who want to figure out, well, why? Why don't we go overweight now? And what we're really waiting for is for rates to come down a bit more. It's still sort of a late cycle environment. So, you know, typically you want to wait until you kind of see the beginnings of a new acceleration in the economy. And that's not what our economists are forecasting.And then the other area is just this debate around government efficiency. And this is where I'm actually most excited because this is not priced at all in my view. There's so much skepticism around the ability or, you know, the likelihood of success in shrinking the government. That's not really what we're, you know, hoping for. We're just hoping for kind of a freezing of government spending. And it's so important to just, to think about it that way because that's what the fiscal sustainability question is all about, where then rates can stay contained. But then if you take it a step further, you know, our view for the last several years has been that the government has been essentially crowding out the private economy, and that really has punished small, medium businesses as well as many consumers.And so, by shrinking or at least freezing the size of the government and redeploying those efforts into the private economy, we could see a very significant increase in productivity, but also see a broadening out in this rally. I mean, one of the reasons the market's been; equity market's been so narrow is because is because scale really matters in this crowded out, sort of environment.If that changes, that creates opportunity at the stock level and that broadening out, which is a much healthier bull market potential.So, what are you hearing from investors, Andrew?Andrew Pauker: Yeah, I mean, I think the debate now, in addition to the factors that you mentioned, is really around the consumer space. A lot of pessimism is in the price already for consumer discretionary goods on the back of – kind of wallet share shift from goods to services, high price levels and sticky interest rates in addition to the tariff risk.So, what we did in our note this week is we laid out a couple of drivers that could potentially get us more positive on that cohort. And those include a reversion in terms of the wallet share shift actually back towards goods. I think that would be a function of lower price levels. Lower interest rates – our rate strategists expect the 10-year yield to fall to 355 by year end 2025. So that would be a constructive backdrop for some of the more interest rate sensitive and housing areas within consumer discretionary.Those are all factors that watching closely in order to get more constructive on that space. But that is another area of the market that I have received a good amount of questions on.Mike Wilson: That's great, Andrew. Thanks a lot. Thanks for taking the time to talk today.Andrew Pauker: Thanks, Mike. Anytime.Mike Wilson: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Hey Horror Fans!!!It's the most haunting time of the year! This week, Sean kicks things off solo with some horror news: a whimsical and deadly new unicorn movie from A24, a chilling Bryan Bertino film starring Dakota Fanning, a Turkish remake of Coffee Table, and the announcement of an Anaconda reboot that slithers back into the spotlight.Then, we're revisiting a favorite from the archives: our conversation with puppeteer, motion capture artist, and actor Luke Hawker, who brought the iconic Krampus to life. Whether you're decking the halls or hiding from holiday cheer, this episode is the perfect blend of festive frights and creepy Christmas vibes so...COME HANG OUT!!!Follow Us on Social Media:Instagram & Threads: @mostlyhorrorpodTikTok & Twitter/X: @mostlyhorrorSteve: @stevenisaverage on all socialsSean: @hypocrite.ink on IG/TikTok, @hypocriteink on Twitter/XEnjoy this episode? Don't forget to subscribe, rate and leave a review on your favorite podcast platform! For early Access and ad-free episodes, subscribe on Wondery+.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

With a new intro and ending, this is a rerelease of one of our more popular episodes: the story of the decision by former U.S. president Jimmy Carter (1924-2024) to follow through with previous administration commitments to recognize the People's Republic of China.  The switch from the ROC to the PRC was a massive change that would slowly lead to the complicated de facto status the Republic of China has today: not technically recognized as a country, not thought to represent “China” anymore, but – at least for a huge number of nations – in reality, now a thriving, democratic, independent island nation known best by the name “Taiwan.” 

Original Release Date October 25, 2024: After decades of offshoring, the pendulum for US manufacturing is swinging back toward domestic production. Our US Multi-Industry Analyst Chris Snyder looks at what's behind this trend.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: 2024 was a year of transition for economies and global markets. Central banks began easing interest rates, U.S. elections signaled significant policy change, and Generative AI made a quantum leap in adoption and development.Thank you for listening throughout 2024, as we navigated the issues and events that shaped financial markets, and society. We hope you'll join us next year as we continue to bring you the most up to date information on the financial world. This week, please enjoy some encores of episodes over the last few months and we'll be back with all new episodes in January. From all of us on Thoughts on the Market, Happy Holidays, and a very Happy New Year. Chris Snyder: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley's US Multi-Industry Analyst. Today I'll discuss the far-reaching implications of shifting industrial production back to the United States. It's Friday, October 25th, at 10am in New York.Global manufacturing is undergoing a seismic shift, and the United States is at the epicenter of this transformation. After decades of offshoring and relying on international supply chains, the pendulum is swinging back toward domestic production. This movement – known as reshoring – is not just a fleeting trend but a strategic realignment of manufacturing capabilities that is indicative of the “multipolar” theme playing out globally.In fact, we believe the US is entering the early innings of re-Industrialization – a multi-decade opportunity that we size at $10 trillion and think has the potential to restore growth to the US industrial economy following more than 20 years of stagnation. The reshoring of manufacturing to the US is fueled by a combination of factors that are making domestic production both viable and lucrative. While the initial sparks were ignited by policy changes, including tariffs and trade agreements, the COVID-19 pandemic laid bare the risks of elongated supply chains and over-dependence on foreign manufacturing.Meanwhile, the diffusion of cutting-edge technologies, such as automation, artificial intelligence, and advanced robotics, has diminished the cost advantages of low-wage countries. The US -- with its robust tech sector and innovation ecosystem -- is uniquely positioned to leverage technology to revitalize its manufacturing base. Who are the direct beneficiaries? High-tech sectors, such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and advanced manufacturing systems, are likely to be the biggest winners. Traditional industrial sectors, such as automotive and aerospace, are also seeing a resurgence. Finally, companies that invest in more sustainable manufacturing processes stand to gain from both policy-driven incentives and a growing market demand. All told, these businesses should see shorter supply chains, reduced legal and tariff costs, and a more resilient operational structure. As for the broader US economy? We think the implications are pretty profound. In altering the US industrial landscape, reshoring promises not only to boost GDP growth, but it could also stabilize and potentially reverse the trade deficits that have plagued the US economy for years.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Original Release Date November 19, 2024: On the second part of a two-part roundtable, our panel gives its 2025 preview for the housing and mortgage landscape, the US Treasury yield curve and currency markets.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: 2024 was a year of transition for economies and global markets. Central banks began easing interest rates, U.S. elections signaled significant policy change, and Generative AI made a quantum leap in adoption and development.Thank you for listening throughout 2024, as we navigated the issues and events that shaped financial markets, and society. We hope you'll join us next year as we continue to bring you the most up to date information on the financial world. This week, please enjoy some encores of episodes over the last few months and we'll be back with all new episodes in January. From all of us on Thoughts on the Market, Happy Holidays, and a very Happy New Year. Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. This is part two of our special roundtable discussion on what's ahead for the global economy and markets in 2025.Today we will cover what is ahead for government bonds, currencies, and housing. I'm joined by Matt Hornbach, our Chief Macro Strategist; James Lord, Global Head of Currency and Emerging Market Strategy; Jay Bacow, our co-head of Securitized Product Strategy; and Jim Egan, the other co-head of Securitized Product Strategy.It's Tuesday, November 19th, at 10am in New York.Matt, I'd like to go to you first. 2024 was a fascinating year for government bond yields globally. We started with a deeply inverted US yield curve at the beginning of the year, and we are ending the year with a much steeper curve – with much of that inversion gone. We have seen both meaningful sell offs and rallies over the course of the year as markets negotiated hard landing, soft landing, and no landing scenarios.With the election behind us and a significant change of policy ahead of us, how do you see the outlook for global government bond yields in 2025?Matt Hornbach: With the US election outcome known, global rate markets can march to the beat of its consequences. Central banks around the world continue to lower policy rates in our economist baseline projection, with much lower policy rates taking hold in their hard landing scenario versus higher rates in their scenarios for re-acceleration.This skew towards more dovish outcomes alongside the baseline for lower policy rates than captured in current market prices ultimately leads to lower government bond yields and steeper yield curves across most of the G10 through next year. Summarizing the regions, we expect treasury yields to move lower over the forecast horizon, helped by 75 [basis points] worth of Fed rate cuts, more than markets currently price.We forecast 10-year Treasury yields reaching 3 and 3.75 per cent by the middle of next year and ending the year just above 3.5 per cent.Our economists are forecasting a pause in the easing cycle in the second half of the year from the Fed. That would leave the Fed funds rate still above the median longer run dot.The rationale for the pause involves Fed uncertainty over the ultimate effects of tariffs and immigration reform on growth and inflation.We also see the treasury curve bull steepening throughout the forecast horizon with most of the steepening in the first half of the year, when most of the fall in yields occur.Finally, on break even inflation rates, we see five- and 10-year break evens tightening slightly by the middle of 2025 as inflation risks cool. However, as the Trump administration starts implementing tariffs, break evens widen in our forecast with the five- and 10-year maturities reaching 2.55 per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively by the end of next year.As such, we think real yields will lead the bulk of the decline in nominal yields in our forecasting with the 10-year real yield around 1.45 per cent by the middle of next year; and ending the year at 1.15 per cent.Vishy Tirupattur: That's very helpful, Matt. James, clearly the incoming administration has policy choices, and their sequencing and severity will have major implications for the strength of the dollar that has rallied substantially in the last few months. Against this backdrop, how do you assess 2025 to be? What differences do you expect to see between DM and EM currency markets?James Lord: The incoming administration's proposed policies could have far-reaching impacts on currency markets, some of which are already being reflected in the price of the dollar today. We had argued ahead of the election that a Republican sweep was probably the most bullish dollar outcome, and we are now seeing that being reflected.We do think the dollar rally continues for a little bit longer as markets price in a higher likelihood of tariffs being implemented against trading partners and there being a risk of additional deficit expansion in 2025. However, we don't really see that dollar strength persisting for long throughout 2025.So, I think that is – compared to the current debate, compared to the current market pricing – a negative dollar catalyst that should get priced into markets.And to your question, Vishy, that there will be differences with EM and also within EM as well. Probably the most notable one is the renminbi. We have the renminbi as the weakest currency within all of our forecasts for 2025, really reflecting the impact of tariffs.We expect tariffs against China to be more consequential than against other countries, thus requiring a bigger adjustment on the FX side. We see dollar China, or dollar renminbi ending next year at 7.6. So that represents a very sharp divergence versus dollar yen and the broader DXY moves – and is a consequence of tariffs.And that does imply that the Fed's broad dollar index only has a pretty modest decline next year, despite the bigger move in the DXY. The rest of Asia will likely follow dollar China more closely than dollar yen, in our view, causing AXJ currencies to generally underperform; versus CMEA and Latin America, which on the whole do a bit better.Vishy Tirupattur: Jay, in contrast to corporate credit, mortgage spreads are at or about their long-term average levels. How do you expect 2025 to pan out for mortgages? What are the key drivers of your expectations, and which potential policy changes you are most focused on?Jay Bacow: As you point out, mortgage spreads do look wide to corporate spreads, but there are good reasons for that. We all know that the Fed is reducing their holdings of mortgages, and they're the largest holder of mortgages in the world.We don't expect Fed balance sheet reduction of mortgages to change, even if they do NQT, as is our forecast in the first quarter of 2025. When they NQT, we expect mortgage runoff to continue to go into treasuries. What we do expect to change next year is that bank demand function will shift. We are working under the assumption that the Basel III endgame either stalls under the next administration or gets released in a way that is capital neutral. And that's going to free up excess capital for banks and reduce regulatory uncertainty for them in how they deploy the cash in their portfolios.The one thing that we've been waiting for is this clarity around regulations. When that changes, we think that's going to be a positive, but it's not just banks returning to the market.We think that there's going to be tailwinds from overseas investors that are going to be hedging out their FX risks as the Fed cuts rates, and the Bank of Japan hikes, so we expect more demand from Japanese life insurance companies.A steeper yield curve is going to be good for REIT demand. And these buyers, banks, overseas REITs, they typically buy CUSIPs, and that's going to help not just from a demand side, but it's going to help funding on mortgages improve as well. And all of those things are going to take mortgage spreads tighter, and that's why we are bullish.I also want to mention agency CMBS for a moment. The technical pressure there is even better than in single family mortgages. The supply story is still constrained, but there is no Fed QT in multifamily. And then also the capital that's going to be available for banks from the deregulation will allow them – in combination with the portfolio layer hedging – to add agency CMBS in a way that they haven't really been adding in the last few years. So that could take spreads tighter as well.Now, Vishy, you also mentioned policy changes. We think discussions around GSE reform are likely to become more prevalent under the new administration.And we think that given that improved capitalization, depending on the path of their earnings and any plans to raise capital, we could see an attempt to exit conservatorship during this administration.But we will simply state our view that any plan that results in a meaningful change to the capital treatment – or credit risk – to the investors of conventional mortgages is going to be too destabilizing for the housing finance markets to implement. And so, we don't think that path could go forward.Vishy Tirupattur: Thanks, Jay. Jim, it was a challenging year for the housing market with historically high levels of unaffordability and continued headwinds of limited supply. How do you see 2025 to be for the US housing market? And going beyond housing, what is your outlook for the opportunity set in securitized credit for 2025?James Egan: For the housing market, the 2025 narrative is going to be one about absolute level versus the direction and rate of change. For instance, Vishy, you mentioned affordability. Mortgage rates have increased significantly since the beginning of September, but it's also true that they're down roughly a hundred basis points from the fourth quarter of 2023 and we're forecasting pretty healthy decreases in the 10-year Treasury throughout 2025. So, we expect affordability to improve over the coming year. Supply? It remains near historic lows, but it's been increasing year to date.So similar to the affordability narrative, it's more challenged than it's been in decades; but it's also less challenged than it was a year ago.So, what does all this mean for the housing market as we look through 2025? Despite the improvements in affordability, sales volumes have been pretty stagnant this year. Total volumes – so existing plus new volumes – are actually down about 3 per cent year to date. And look, that isn't unusual. It typically takes about a year for sales volumes to pick up when you see this kind of significant affordability improvement that we've witnessed over the past year, even with the recent backup in mortgage rates.And that means we think we're kind of entering that sweet spot for increased sales now. We've seen purchase applications turn positive year over year. We've seen pending home sales turn positive year over year. That's the first time both of those things have happened since 2021. But when we think about how much sales 2025, we think it's going to be a little bit more curtailed. There are a whole host of reasons for that – but one of them the lock in effect has been a very popular talking point in the housing market this year. If we look at just the difference between the effective mortgage rate on the outstanding universe and where you can take out a mortgage rate today, the universe is still over 200 basis points out of the money.To the upside, you're not going to get 10 per cent growth there, but you're going to get more than 5 per cent growth in new home sales. And what I really want to emphasize here is – yes, mortgage rates have increased recently. We expect them to come down in 2025; but even if they don't, we don't think there's a lot of room for downside to existing home sales from here.There's some level of housing activity that has to happen, regardless of where mortgage rates or affordability are. We think we're there. Turnover measured as the number of transactions – existing transactions – as a share of the outstanding housing market is lower now than it was during the great financial crisis. It's as low as it's been in a little bit over 40 years. We just don't think it can fall that much further from here.But as we go through 2025, we do think it dips negative. We have a negative 2 per cent HPA call next year, not significantly down. We don't think there's a lot of room to the downside given the healthy foundation, the low supply, the strong credit standards in the housing market. But there is a little bit of negativity next year before home prices reaccelerate.This leaves us generically constructive on securitized products across the board. Given how much of the capital structure has flattened this year, we think CLO AAAs actually offer the best value amongst the debt tranches there. We think non-QM triple AAAs and agency MBS is going to tighten. They look cheap to IG corporates. Consumer ABS, we also think still looks pretty cheap to IG corporates. Even in the CMBS pace, we think there's opportunities. CMBS has really outperformed this year as rates have come down. Now our bull bear spread differentials are much wider in CMBS than they are elsewhere, but in our base case, conduit BBB minuses still offer attractive value.That being said, if we're going to go down the capital structure, our favorite expression in the securitized credit space is US CLO equity.Vishy Tirupattur: Thank you, Jay and Jim, and also Matt and James.We'll close it out here. As a reminder, if you enjoyed the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Original Release Date November 18, 2024: On the first part of a two-part roundtable, our panel discusses why the US is likely to see a slowdown and where investors can look for growth.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: 2024 was a year of transition for economies and global markets. Central banks began easing interest rates, U.S. elections signaled significant policy change, and Generative AI made a quantum leap in adoption and development.Thank you for listening throughout 2024, as we navigated the issues and events that shaped financial markets, and society. We hope you'll join us next year as we continue to bring you the most up to date information on the financial world. This week, please enjoy some encores of episodes over the last few months and we'll be back with all new episodes in January. From all of us on Thoughts on the Market, Happy Holidays, and a very Happy New Year. Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Today in the podcast, we are hosting a special roundtable discussion on what's ahead for the global economy and markets in 2025.I'm joined by my colleagues: Seth Carpenter, Global Chief Economist; Mike Wilson, Chief US Equity Strategist and the firm's Chief Investment Officer; and Andrew Sheets, Global Head of [Corporate] Credit Research.It's Monday, November 18th, at 10am in New York.Gentlemen. Thank you all for taking the time to talk. We have a lot to cover, and so I'm going to go right into it.Seth, I want to start with the global economy. As you look ahead to 2025, how do you see the global economy evolving in terms of growth, inflation and monetary policy?Seth Carpenter: I have to say – it's always difficult to do forecasts. But I think right now the uncertainty is even greater than usual. It's pretty tricky. I think if you do it at a global level, we're not actually looking for all that much of a change, you know, around 3-ish percent growth; but the composition is surely going to change some.So, let's hit the big economies around the world. For the US, we are looking for a bit of a slowdown. Now, some of that was unsustainable growth this year and last year. There's a bit of waning residual impetus from fiscal policy that's going to come off in growth rate terms. Monetary policy is still restrictive, and there's some lag effects there; so even though the Fed is cutting rates, there's still going to be a little bit of a slowdown coming next year from that.But I think the really big question, and you alluded to this in your question, is what about other policy changes here? For fiscal policy, we think that's really an issue for 2026. That's when the Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) tax cuts expire, and so we think there's going to be a fix for that; but that's going to take most of 2025 to address legislatively. And so, the fiscal impetus really is a question for 2026.But immigration, tariffs; those matter a lot. And here the question really is, do things get front loaded? Is it everything all at once right at the beginning? Is it phased in over time a bit like it was over 2018? I think our baseline assumption is that there will be tariffs; there will be an increase in tariffs, especially on China. But they will get phased in over the course of 2025. And so, as a result, the first thing you see is some increase in inflation and it will build over time as the tariffs build. The slowdown from growth, though, gets backloaded to the end of 2025 and then really spills over into to 2026.Now, Europe is still in a situation where they've got some sluggish growth. We think things stabilize. We get, you know, 1 percent growth or so. So not a further deterioration there; but not a huge increase that would make you super excited. The ECB should probably keep cutting interest rates. And we actually think there's a really good chance that inflation in the euro area goes below their target. And so, as a result, what do we see? Well, the ECB cutting down below their best guess of neutral. They think 2 percent nominal is neutral and they go below that.China is another big curveball here for the forecast because they've been in this debt deflation spiral for a while. We don't think the pivot in fiscal policy is anywhere near sufficient to ward things off. And so, we could actually see a further slowing down of growth in China in 2025 as the policy makers do this reactive kind of policy response. And so, it's going to take a while there, and we think there's a downside risk there.On the upside. I mean, we're still bullish on Japan. We're still very bullish on India and its growth; and across other parts of EM, there's some bright spots. So, it's a real mixed bag. I don't think there's a single trend across the globe that's going to drive the overall growth narrative.Vishy Tirupattur: Thank you, Seth. Mike, I'd like to go to you next. 2024 has turned out to be a strong year for equity markets globally, particularly for US and Japanese equities. While we did see modest earnings growth, equity returns were mostly about multiple expansion. How do you expect 2025 to turn out for the global equity markets? What are the key challenges and opportunities ahead for the equity markets that you see?Mike Wilson: Yeah, this year was interesting because we had what I would say was very modest earnings growth in the US in particular; relative to the performance. It was really all multiple expansion, and that's probably not going to repeat this year. We're looking for better earnings growth given our soft landing outcome from an economic standpoint and rates coming down. But we don't think multiples will expand any further. In fact, we think they'll come down by about 5 percent. But that still gets us a decent return in the base case of sort of high single digits.You know, Japan is the second market we like relative to the rest of the world because of the corporate governance story. So there, too, we're looking for high single digit earnings growth and high single digits or 10 percent return in total. And Europe is when we're sort of down taking a bit because of tariff risk and also pressure from China, where they have a lot of export business.You know, the challenges I think going forward is that growth continues to be below trend in many regions. The second challenge is that, you know, high quality assets are expensive everywhere. It's not just the US. It's sort of everywhere in the world. So, you get what you pay for. You know, the S&P is extremely expensive, but that's because the ROE is higher, and growth is higher.So, you know, in other words, these are not well-kept secrets. And so just valuation is a real challenge. And then, of course, the consensus views are generally fairly narrow around the soft landing and that's very priced as well. So, the risks are that the consensus view doesn't play out. And that's why we have two bull and two bear cases in the US – just like we did in the mid-year outlook; and in fact, what happened is one of our bull cases is what played out in the second half of this year.So, the real opportunity from our standpoint, I think this is a global call as well – which is that we continue to be pretty big rotations around the macro-outlook, which remains uncertain, given the policy changes we're seeing in the US potentially, and also the geopolitical risks that still is out there.And then the other big opportunity has been stock picking. Dispersion is extremely high. Clients are really being rewarded for taking single stock exposures. And I think that continues into next year. So, we're going to do what we did this year is we're going to try to rotate around from a style and size perspective, depending on the macro-outlook.Vishy Tirupattur: Thank you, Mike. Andrew, we are ending 2024 in a reasonably good setup for credit markets, with spreads at or near multi-decade tights for many markets. How do you expect the global credit markets to play out in 2025? What are the best places to be within the credit spectrum and across different regions?Andrew Sheets: I think that's the best way to frame it – to start a little bit about where we are and then talk about where we might be going. I think it's safe to say that this has been an absolutely phenomenal backdrop for corporate credit. Corporate credit likes moderation. And I think you've seen an unusual amount of moderation at both the macro and the micro level.You've seen kind of moderate growth, moderating inflation, moderating policy rates across DM. And then at the micro level, even though markets have been very strong, corporate aggressiveness has not been. M&A has been well below trend. Corporate balance sheets have been pretty stable.So, what I think is notable is you've had an economic backdrop that credit has really liked, as you correctly note. We've pushed spreads near 20-year tights based on that backdrop. But it's a backdrop that credit markets liked, but US voters did not like, and they voted for different policy.And so, when we look ahead – the range of outcomes, I think across both the macro and the micro, is expanding. And I think the policy uncertainty that markets now face is increasing both scenarios to the upside where things are hotter and you see more animal spirits; and risk to the downside, where potentially more aggressive tariffs or action on immigration creates more kind of stagflationary types of risk.So one element that we're facing is we feel like we're leaving behind a really good environment for corporate credit and we're entering something that's more uncertain. But then balancing that is that you're not going to transition immediately.You still have a lot of momentum in the US and European economy. I look at the forecasts from Seth's team, the global economic numbers, or at least kind of the DM economic numbers into the first half of next year – still look fine. We still have the Fed cutting. We still have the ECB cutting. We still have inflation moderating.So, part of our thinking for this year is it could be a little bit of a story of two halves that we titled our section, “On Borrowed Time.” That the credit is still likely to hold in well and perform better in the first half of the year. Yields are still good; the Fed is still cutting; the backdrop hasn't changed that much. And then it's the second half of the year where some of our economic numbers start to show more divergence, where the Fed is no longer cutting rates, where all in yield levels are lower on our interest rate forecasts, which could temper demand. That looks somewhat trickier.In terms of how we think about what we like within credit, we do think the levered loan market continues to be attractive. That's part of credit where spreads are not particularly tight versus history. That's one area where we still see risk premium. I think this is also an environment where regionally we see Asia underperforming. It's a market that's both very expensive from a spread perspective but also faces potentially kind of outsized economic and tariff uncertainty. And we think that the US might outperform in context to at least initially investors feeling like the US is at less relative risk from tariffs and policy uncertainty than some other markets.So, Vishy, I'll pause there and pass it back to you.Vishy Tirupattur: Thanks, Mike, Seth, and Andrew.Thank you all for listening. We are going to take a pause here and we'll be back tomorrow with our year ahead round table continued, where we'll share our forecast for government bonds, currencies and housing.As a reminder, if you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

The development of a major sports figure often can be years in the making. Earlier in 2024, we heard from PGA of America Professional Randy Smith as to how he helped shape young Scottie Sheffler into the man to beat in golf.  Relive the message that Randy has passed along to the best player in golf here in a special holiday episode of "Musings on Golf."

Original Release Date November 15, 2024: Our head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets explains why a stronger economy, moderate inflation and future rate cuts could prompt deal-making.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today I'll discuss why we remain believers in a large, sustained uptick in corporate activity. It's Friday, November 15th at 2pm in London. We continue to think that 2024 will mark the start of a significant, multiyear uplift in global merger and acquisition activity – or M&A. In new work out this week, we are reiterating that view. While the 25 percent rise in volumes this year is actually somewhat short of our original expectations from March, the core drivers of a large and sustained increase in activity, in our view, remain intact. Those drivers remain multiple. Current levels of global M&A volumes are still unusually low relative to their own historical trend or the broader strength that we see in stock markets. The overall economy, which often matters for M&A activity, has been strong, especially in the US, while inflation continues to moderate and rate cuts have begun. We see motivations for sellers – from ageing private equity portfolios, maturing venture capital pipelines, and higher valuations for the median stock. And we see more factors driving buyers from $4 trillion of private market "dry powder," to around $7.5 trillion of cash that's sitting idly on non-financial balance sheets, to wide-open capital markets that provide the ability to finance deals. These high level drivers are also confirmed bottom up by boots on the ground. Our colleagues across Morgan Stanley Equity Research also see a stronger case for activity – and we polled over 60 global equity teams for their views. While the results vary by geography and sector, the Morgan Stanley Equity analysts who cover these sectors in the most depth also see a strong case for more activity. The policy backdrop also matters. While activity has risen this year, one reason it might not have risen as much as we initially expected was uncertainty about both when central banks would start cutting rates and the outcome of US elections. But both of those uncertainties have now, to some extent, waned. Rate cuts from the Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of England have now started, while the Red Sweep in US elections could, in our view, drive more animal spirits. And Europe is an important part of this story too, as we think the European Union's new approach to consolidation could be more supportive for activity. For investors, an expectation that corporate activity will continue to rise is, in our view, supportive for Financial equities. Where could we be wrong? M&A activity does fundamentally depend on economic and market confidence; and a weaker than expected economy or weaker than expected equity market would drive lower than expected volumes. Policy still matters. And while we view the incoming US administration as more M&A supportive, that could be misguided – if policy changes dent corporate confidence or increase inflation. Finally, we think that a more multipolar world could actually support more M&A, as there's a push to create more regional champions to compete on the global stage. But this could be incorrect, if those same global frictions disrupt activity or confidence more generally. Time will tell. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Original Release Date November 1, 2024: Our US Fintech and Payments analyst reviews a recent survey that reveals key trends on how Gen Z and Millennials handle their personal finances.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm James Faucette, Morgan Stanley's Head of US Fintech and Payments. Today I'll dig into the way young people in the US approach their finances and why it matters.It's Friday, November 1st, at 10am in New York. You'd think that Millennials – also commonly known as Gen Y – and Gen Z would come up with new ways to think about money. After all, they live most of their lives online, and don't always rely on their parents for advice – financial or otherwise. But a survey we conducted suggests the opposite may be true. To understand how 16 to 43 year-olds – who make up nearly 40 per cent of the US population – view money, we ran an AlphaWise survey of more than 4,000 US consumers. In general, our work suggests that both Millennials and Gen Z's financial goals, banking preferences, and medium-term aspirations are not much different from the priorities of previous generations. Young consumers still believe family is the most important aspect in life, similar to what we found in our 2018 survey. They have a positive outlook on home ownership, college education, employment, and their personal financial situation. 28-to-43-year-olds have the second highest average annual income among all age cohorts, earning more than $100,000. They spend an average of $86,000 per year, of which more than a third goes toward housing. Gen Y and Z largely expect to live in owned homes at a greater rate in five to 10 years, and younger Gen Y cohorts' highest priority is starting a family and raising children in the medium term. This should be a tailwind for many consumer-facing real estate property sectors including retail, residential, lodging and self-storage. However, Gen Y and Z are less mobile today than they were pre-pandemic. Compared to their peers in 2018, they intend to keep living in the same area they're currently living in for the next five to 10 years. Gen Y and Z consumers reported higher propensity for saving each month relative to older generations, which could be a potential tailwind for discretionary spending. And travel remains a top priority across age cohorts, which sets the stage for ongoing travel strength and favorable cross-border trends for the major credit card providers. In addition to all these findings, our analysis suggests several surprising facts. For example, our survey results contradict the widely accepted notion that younger generations are "credit averse." The vast majority of Gen Z consumers have one or more traditional credit cards – at a similar rate to Gen X and Millennials. Although traditional credit card usage is higher among Millennials and Gen Z than it was in 2018, data suggests this is driven by convenience, not financing needs. Younger people's borrowing is primarily related to auto and home loans from traditional lenders rather than fintechs. Another unexpected finding is that while Gen Y and Z are more drawn to online banking than their predecessors, about 75 per cent acknowledge the importance of physical branch locations – and still prefer to bank with their traditional national, regional, and community banks over online-only providers. What's more, they also believe physical bank branches will be important long-term. Overall, our analysis suggests that generations tend to maintain their key priorities as they age. Whether this pattern holds in the future is something we will continue to watch.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Cheryl Esposito welcomes Bob Johansen, Distinguished Fellow with the Institute for the Future (IFTF), trusted advisor to leaders of global organizations, & award-winning author of multiple best-selling books. His book, Leaders Make the Future: Ten New Leadership Skills for an Uncertain World was the first of a trilogy to help leaders thrive in the VUCA world. Today's businesses & organizations are operating in a world characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, & ambiguity according to Bob Johansen. To be successful in the future, leaders will need an emerging set of skills uniquely suited to dealing with challenges of the times we are in. He sees these times as the most frightening and as the most hopeful. Bob believes that connectivity is the key, & we are not fully realizing the benefits of that. “Powerful leaders will see connections in the larger systems of which they are a part, embrace shared assets & opportunities, & cut through the chaos…in this decade, leaders will not just see the future—they will make the future!” Join Cheryl Esposito & Bob Johansen as they reveal the leadership keys to the future!

Cheryl Esposito welcomes Marci Shimoff, a #1 New York Times bestselling author, a world-renowned transformational teacher, & an expert on happiness, success, & unconditional love. In her new book, Love for No Reason: 7 Steps to Creating a Life of Unconditional Love Marci tells us there is a new paradigm for love. It is not conditional. It does not depend on another's view of your value. And it is the key to personal fulfillment & professional success. Learn to: Open your heart; turn off your body's stress response & turn on your body's love response for better health & well-being; become more patient & accepting, still finding the wisdom, drive, & confidence to go after any changes that matter to you. “Our present paradigm of love—one based on need and approval—has brought us nothing but personal pain & global conflict. Now is the time to open your heart & become an unshakeable source of love for yourself & everyone around you… together we really can heal our world, one heart at a time.” Join Cheryl Esposito & Marci Shimoff as they reveal the keys to Love for No Reason!

Kiersten Parsons Hathcock became a medium after discovering an unexpected psychic ability. Today Kiersten helps investigators around the country solve missing children's cases, and the spirits have helped her uncover and heal from her own traumatic past. 2 Lives “The second begins the moment we realize we have only one.” 2 Lives is created by Laurel Morales. Valerie Shively is the assistant producer. Christian Arnder is our illustrator and website designer. Music from Blue Dot Sessions. Become a 2 Lives patron at https://www.patreon.com/2lives Or give a donation at paypal.me/2LivesPodcast Drop us a note on Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter. You can learn how to support the show here. Or order merch here. Episode transcripts are posted on our  website. Find out more about Kiersten, her book Little Voices, and the National Institute for Law & Justice at her website.  

On this 35th anniversary of Hurricane Hugo's landfall in the Carolinas, we revisit our 2019 special marking the then-30th anniversary of the Category 4 storm. Within hours, Hugo was ripping through the South Carolina midlands and into parts of western North Carolina, including Charlotte. In this special episode, we look at Hugo's lasting effect on our communities - - and your personal stories of surviving Hurricane Hugo. Hear personal stories from broadcast meteorologists Eric Thomas, Rob Fowler and Larry Sprinke, all of who covered the storm on television in Charleston, Myrtle Beach and Charlotte. See historical footage from the South Carolina Education Television (SCETV) archives. See images and videos from 1989 showing the impact of Hurricane Hugo in both North Carolina and South Carolina. The Carolina Weather Group podcast delivers a historical look back at this unforgettable piece of weather history. RECORD YOUR STORY: https://anchor.fm/carolinaweather/message SPECIAL THANKS: SCETV for sharing their footage. Find their special at http://www.scetv.org/hugo30

Way back in Season 1 of our Healthcare on the Rocks podcast, we talked with Josh Reimer, the Director of Channel Partnerships at Included Health, about many of the challenges of today's healthcare system.  Since then, Included Health has joined the Springbuk Activate Partner Marketplace, which enables Springbuk clients to see how they can improve care outcomes for members with complex specialty conditions. With the help of Included Health, employers with high-cost claimants can lower costs, provide better outcomes, and improve the satisfaction of their members. Listen, or perhaps re-listen, to this encore episode while Josh describes how Included Health leverages its data science and clinical expertise, along with a network of 4,000 leading nationwide experts, for a review of a diagnosis or treatment plan recommendation.  I hope you enjoy this special encore episode.Have feedback, questions, or suggestions for show ideas? Send them to us at podcast@springbuk.com. Please rate and review us on your favorite podcast platform, and share it with your friends and colleagues. We appreciate you and thank you for listening! Produced by David Pittman Theme music: "Overboard" by Stay Outside

Join Msgr. John Esseff as he reflects on his experiences with Mother Teresa on the eve of her canonization! Several of the stories he has not shared on any of his previous programs. Rather than be "admirers" of Mother Teresa, Msgr. Esseff asks all of us to pray to become "imitators" of this little one of God's children who has now become one of His great saints! Carrier of God's Tender Love and Mercy Lord Jesus, merciful Face of the Father, you came to give us the Good News of the Father's mercy and tenderness. We thank you for the gift of our dearest Mother, Blessed Teresa of Calcutta, who will be canonized in this Jubilee Year of Mercy. You chose her to be your presence, your love and compassion to the brokenhearted, the unwanted, the abandoned and the dying. She responded wholeheartedly to your cry, ‘I Thirst,' by the holiness of her life and humble works of love to the poorest of the poor. We pray, through her intercession, for the grace to experience your merciful love and share it in our own families, communities and with all our suffering brothers and sisters. Help us to give our “hearts to love and hands to serve” after the example of Mother Teresa. Lord Jesus, bless every member of our family, our parish, our diocese, our country, especially those most in need, that we all may be transformed by your merciful love. Amen. Text © Mother Teresa Center of the Missionaries of Charity The post Special Encore: The Canonization of St. Teresa of Calcutta – Building a Kingdom of Love with Msgr. John Esseff – Discerning Hearts Podcast appeared first on Discerning Hearts Catholic Podcasts.

Original Release Date August 8, 2024: Our Head of Europe Sustainability Research discusses how rising longevity is revolutionizing our fundamental approach from reactive to proactive treatment.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Canfield, Morgan Stanley's European Head of Sustainability Research. Along with my colleagues, we're bringing you a variety of perspectives; and today we're focusing on a topic that affects everyone – how much does poor health cost us? And how are ageing populations and longer life expectancy driving a fundamental shift in healthcare? It's Thursday, August the 8th, at 4pm in London. As populations age across the developed world, health systems need to help people live both longer and healthier. The current system is typically built around to focus on acute conditions and it's more reactive; so it introduces clinical care or drugs to respond to a condition after it's already arisen, rather than keeping people healthy in the first instance. So increasingly, with the burden of chronic disease becoming by far the greatest health and economic challenge we face, we need to change the structure of the healthcare system. Essentially, the key question is how much is poor health amongst the ageing population really costing society? To get a true sense of that, we need to keep in mind that workers over 50 already earn one out of every three dollars across the G20 regions. By 2035, they're projected to generate nearly 40 per cent of all household income. So with that in mind, preventable conditions amongst those people aged 50-64 at the moment, are already costing G20 economies over $1 trillion annually in productivity loss. And there's one more key number: 19 per cent. That's how much age-diverse workforces can raise GDP per capita over the next thirty years, according to estimates from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, or OECD. So clearly, keeping workers healthier for longer underpins a more productive, more efficient, and a profitable global economy. So it's clear that [if] the current healthcare system were to shift from sick from care to prevention, the global gains would be substantial.The BioPharma sector is already contributing some targeted novel treatments in areas like smart chemotherapy and in CRISPR – which is a technology that allows for selective DNA modification. While we can credit BioPharma and MedTech for really powerful innovations in diagnostics, in AI deployment for areas like data science and material science, and in sophisticated telemedicine – all these breakthroughs together give a more personalized, targeted health system; which is a big step in the right direction, but honestly they alone can't solve this much broader longevity challenge we face. Focus on health and prevention, ultimately, could address those underlying causes of ill-health, so that problems don't arise even in the first instance. Governments around the world are obviously realizing the value of preventive care over sick care. And as a strategy, disease prevention fundamentally aims to promote wellness across the board, whether that's in things like mental state, nutrition or even in things like sleep and stress. While it might be easy to kind of conflate that with wellness trends – things like green smoothies or meditation – the underlying benefits of boosting health at the cellular level have much broader and deeper implications. Things like Type 2 diabetes and heart disease, supporting better health across populations can significantly reduce the incidence of a wide range of chronic conditions. It can lower the burden on health systems overall, and actually increase healthy lifespan at the end of the day. BioPharma advances are significant, but addressing longevity will require a much broader alignment across a myriad of elements; everything really from the food system to sanitation to training healthcare professionals. And of course, all of that will require consistent policy support. Regulators and policymakers are paying very close attention to their ageing population – and so are we. We'll continue to bring you updates on this topic, which is so important to all of us.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please do leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Too often mental health conversations get stuck in a focus of dysfunction, uncomfortable symptoms, and focusing on "fixing" what feels off. But, mental health is not simply about trying to rid ourselves of things like negative thoughts. So much of mental health has to do with the day-to-day infusion of positive practices. Which leads us into the importance of fun, pleasure, play, and flow as essential elements of mental health and a joyful life. We'll talk about some simple ways to embrace your fun nature and tap into more flowing states that nourish your body and mind. Joy Lab and Natural Mental Health are community-supported. When you buy through the links below, we may earn a commission. That support helps keep the Joy Lab podcast free for all!   Sources and Notes: Joy Lab Program: Take the next leap in your wellbeing journey with step-by-step practices to help you build and maintain the elements of joy in your life. Your Joy Lab membership also includes our NMH Community! Where to shop: Our partner store, Fullscript: Here you can find high-quality supplements and wellness products. Except for our CBD Gummies, any product links mentioned in the show notes will require an account. Sign up for free. Resilient Remedies: Shop our line of trusted, high-quality CBD gummies. Subscribe to our Newsletter: Join us over at NaturalMentalHealth.com for exclusive emails, updates, and additional strategies. Check out our favorite resilience-boosting reads at Bookshop.org Full transcript available here. Please remember that this content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended to provide medical advice and is not a replacement for advice and treatment from a medical professional. Please consult your doctor or other qualified health professional before beginning any diet change, supplement, or lifestyle program. Please see our terms for more information. If you or someone you know is struggling or in crisis, help is available. Call the NAMI HelpLine: 1-800-950-6264 available Monday through Friday, 10 a.m. – 10 p.m., ET. OR text "HelpLine" to 62640 or email NAMI at helpline@nami.org. Visit NAMI for more. You can also call or text SAMHSA at 988 or chat 988lifeline.org.

Original release date July 23, 2024: Our Head of Global Autos & Shared Mobility discusses what makes humanoid robots a pivotal trend with implications for the global economy.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley's Head of Global Autos & Shared Mobility. Today I'll be talking about an unusual but hotly debated topic: humanoid robots. It's Tuesday, July 23rd, at 10am in New York.We've seen robots on factory floors, in displays at airports and at trade shows – doing work, performing tasks, even smiling. But over the last eighteen months, we seem to have hit a major inflection point. What's changed? Large Language Models and Generative AI. The current AI movement is drawing comparisons to the dawn of the Internet. It's begging big, existential questions about the future of the human species and consciousness itself. But let's look at this in more practical terms and consider why robots are taking on a human shape. The simplest answer is that we live in a world built for humans. And we're getting to the point where – thanks to GenAI – robots are learning through observation. Not just through rudimentary instruction and rules based heuristic models. GenAI means robots can observe humans in action doing boring, dangerous and repetitive tasks in warehouses, in restaurants or in factories. And in order for these robots to learn and function most effectively, their design needs to be anthropomorphic. Another reason we're bullish on humanoid robots is because developers can have these robots experiment and learn from both simulation and physically in areas where they're not a serious threat to other humans. You see, many of the enabling technologies driving humanoid robots have come from developments in autonomous cars. The problem with autonomous cars is that you can't train them on public roads without directly involving innocent civilians – pedestrians, children and cyclists -- into that experiment. Add to all of this the issue of critical labor shortages and challenging demographic trends. The global labor total addressable market is around $30 trillion (USD) or about one-third of global GDP. We've built a proprietary US total addressable market model examining labor dynamics and humanoid optionality across 831 job classifications, working with our economics team; and built a comprehensive survey across 40 sectors to understand labor intensity and humanoid ability of the workforce over time. In the United States, we forecast 40,000 humanoid units by 2030, 8 million by 2040 and 63 million by 2050 – equivalent to around $3 trillion (USD) of salary equivalent. But as early as 2028 we think you're going to see significant adoption beginning in industries like manufacturing, production, warehousing, and logistics, installation, healthcare and food prep. Then in the 2030s, you're going to start adding more in healthcare, recreational and transportation. And then after 2040, you may see the adoption of humanoid robots go vertical. Now you might say – that's 15 years from now. But just like autonomous car – the end state might be 20 years away, but the capital formation is happening right now. And investors should pay close attention because we think the technological advances will only accelerate from here. Thanks for listening. And if you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

This is a special look back and the truths from then are more evident now.ENJOY this Blast From The Past.

Markets are suggesting that spirits consumption will return to historical growth levels post-pandemic, but our Head of European Consumer Staples Research disagrees.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Sarah Simon, Head of the European Consumer Staples team. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll talk about a surprising trend in the global spirits market.It's Monday, April 15, at 2pm in London. We all remember vividly the COVID-19 period when we spent much more on goods than services, particularly on goods that could be delivered to our homes. Not surprisingly, spirits consumption experienced a super-cycle during the pandemic. But as the world returned to normal, the demand for spirits has dropped off. The market believes that after a period of normalization, the US spirits market will return to mid-single-digit growth in line with history; but we think that's too optimistic.Changes in demographics and consumer behavior make it much more likely that the US market will grow only modestly from here. There are several key challenges to the volume of US alcohol consumption in the coming years. Sobriety and moderation of alcohol intake are two rising trends. In addition, there's the increased use of GLP-1 anti-obesity drugs, which appear to quell users' appetite for alcoholic beverages. And finally, there's stiffer regulation, including the lowering of alcohol limits for driving.A slew of recent survey data points to consumer intention to reduce alcohol intake. A February 2023 IWSR survey reported that 50 per cent of US drinkers are moderating their consumption. Meanwhile, a January 2024 NCSolutions survey reported that 41 per cent of respondents are trying to drink less, an increase of 7 percentage points from the prior year. And importantly, this intention was most concentrated among younger drinkers, with 61 per cent of Gen Z planning to drink less in 2024, up from 40 per cent in the prior year's survey. Meanwhile, 49 per cent of Millennials had a similar intention, up 26 per cent year on year.Why is all this happening? And why now? Perhaps the increasingly vocal commentary by public bodies linking alcohol to cancer is really hitting home. Last November, the World Health Organization stated that "the higher the amount of alcohol consumed, the higher the risk of developing cancer" but also that "half of all alcohol-attributable cancers in the WHO European Region are caused by ‘light' and ‘moderate' alcohol consumption. A recent Gallup survey of Americans indicated that young adults are particularly concerned that moderate drinking is unhealthy, with 52 per cent holding this view, up from 34 per cent five years ago. Another explanation for the increased prevalence of non-drinking among the youngest group of drinkers may be demographic makeup: the proportion of non-White 18- to 34-year-olds has nearly doubled over the past two decades.And equally, the cost of alcohol, which saw steep price increases in the last couple of years, seems to be a reason for increased moderation. Spending on alcohol stepped up materially over the COVID-19 period when there were more limited opportunities for spending. With life returning to normal post pandemic, consumers have other – more attractive or more pressing – opportunities for expenditure.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen to podcasts. It helps more people to find the show.

This special encore episode of Broadway Nation was first released in the fall of 2022. My guest is PAUL SALSINI, who many listeners will remember as the founder and original editor of The Sondheim Review, the first and only quarterly magazine ever devoted to a living musical theater composer. Paul passed away earlier this month, at the age of 88, so I thought this was a very appropriate time to revisit this fascinating conversation.  Paul launched the magazine in 1994, and over the following ten years, Paul exchanged notes, letters, faxes and phone calls with Stephen Sondheim — who it was clear was reading every word of every issue of the magazine — and Sondheim often had corrections and comments, or as he called them, “emendations.” On a few occasions these notes and phone calls included “vigorous objections” to what Paul had included the magazine, but overall Sondheim was wonderfully supportive and helpful. In his book SONDHEIM AND ME, Paul chronicles his unlikely relationship with Sondheim during an eventful period that included the New York premieres of Passion and Saturday Night, the Kennedy Center's Sondheim Celebration, Broadway revivals of six of Sondheim's major works, and the decade long development of the musical that would eventually be called Road Show. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Original Release on April 29, 2024: Our analysts find that despite the obvious differences between retail fashion and airlines, struggling brands in both industries can use a similar playbook for a turnaround.----- Transcript -----Ravi Shanker: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley's North American Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst.Alex Straton: And I'm Alex Straton, Morgan Stanley's North America Softlines, Retail and Brands Analyst.Ravi Shanker: On this episode of the podcast, we'll discuss some really surprising parallels between fashion, retail, and airlines.It's Monday, April 29th at 10am in New York.Now, you're probably wondering why we're talking about airlines and fashion retail in the same sentence. And that's because even though they may seem worlds apart, they actually have a lot in common. They're both highly cyclical industries driven by consumer spending, inventory pressure, and brand attrition over time.And so, we would argue that what applies to one industry actually has relevance to the other industry as well. So, Alex, you've been observing some remarkable turnaround stories in your space recently. Can you paint a picture of what some fashion retail businesses have done to engineer a successful turnaround? Maybe go over some of the fundamentals first?Alex Straton: What I'll lead with here is that in my North America apparel retail coverage, turnarounds are incredibly hard to come by, to the point where I'd argue I'm skeptical when any business tries to architect one. And part of that difficulty directly pertains to your question, Ravi -- the fundamental backdrop of the industry.So, what are we working with here? Apparel is a low single digit growing category here in North America, where the average retailer operates at a mid single digit plus margin level. This is super meager compared to other more profitable industries that Ravi and I don't necessarily have the joy of covering. But part of why my industry is characterized by such low operating performance is the fact that there are incredibly low barriers to entry in the space. And you can really see that in two dynamics.The first being how fragmented the competitive landscape is. That means that there are many players as opposed to consolidation across a select few. Just think of how many options you have out there as you shop for clothing and then how much that has changed over time. And then second, and somewhat due to that fragmentation, the category has historically been deflationary, meaning prices have actually fallen over time as retailers compete mostly on price to garner consumer attention and market share.So put differently, historically, retailers' key tool for drawing in the consumer and driving sales has been based on being price competitive, often through promotions and discounting, which, along with other structural headwinds, like declining mall traffic, e-commerce growth and then rising wages, rent and product input costs has actually meant the average retailers' margin was in a steady and unfortunately structural decline prior to the pandemic.So, this reliance on promotions and discounting in tandem with those other pressures I just mentioned, not only hurt many retailers' earnings power but in many cases also degraded consumer brand perception, creating a super tough cycle to break out of and thus turnarounds very tough to come by -- bringing it full circle.So, in a nutshell, what you should hear is apparel is a low barrier to entry, fragmented market with subsequently thin margins and little to no precedent for successful turnarounds. That's not to say a retail turnaround isn't possible, though, Ravi.Ravi Shanker: Got it. So that's great background. And you've identified some very specific key levers that these fashion retail companies can pull in order to boost their profitability. What are some of these levers?Alex Straton: We do have a recent example in the space of a company that was able to break free of that rather vicious cycle I just went through, and it actually lifted its sales growth and profitability levels above industry average. From our standpoint, this super rare retail turnaround relied on five key levers, and the first was targeting a different customer demographic. Think going from a teens focused customer with limited brand loyalty to an older, wealthier and less fickle shopper; more reliable, but differently.Second, you know, evolving the product assortment. So, think mixing the assortment into higher priced, less seasonal items that come with better margins. To bring this to life, imagine a jeans and tees business widening its offering to include things like tailored pants and dresses that are often higher margin.Third, we saw that changing the pricing strategy was also key. You can retrain or reposition a brand as not only higher priced through the two levers I just mentioned, but also try and be less promotional overall. This is arguably, from my experience, one of the hardest things for a retailer to execute over time. So, this is the thing I would typically, you know, red flag if you hear it.Fourth, and this is very, very key, reducing the store footprint, re-examining your costs. So, as I mentioned in my coverage, cost inflation across the P&L (profit and loss) historically, consumers moving online over time, and what it means is retailers are sitting on a cost base that might not necessarily be right for the new demand or the new structure of the business. So, finding cost savings on that front can really do wonders for the margins.Fifth, and I list this last because it's a little bit more of a qualitative type of lever -- is that you can focus on digital. That really matters in this modern era. What we saw was a retailer use digital driven data to inform decision making across the business, aligning consumer experience across channels and doing this in a profitable way, which is no easy feat, to say the least.So, look, we identified five broad enablers of a turnaround. But there were, of course, little changes along the way that were also done.Ravi Shanker: Right.Alex Straton: So, Ravi, given what we've discussed, how do you think this turnaround model from fashion retail can apply to airlines?Ravi Shanker: Look, I mean, as we discussed, at the top here, we think there are significant similarities between the world of fashion retail and airlines; even though it may not seem obvious, at first glance. I mean, they're both very consumer discretionary type, demand environments. The vicious circle that you described, the price deflation, the competition, the brand attrition, all of that applies to retail and to airlines as well.And so, I think when you look at the five enablers of the turnaround or levers that you pull to make it happen, I think those can apply from retail to airlines as well. For instance, you target a different customer, one that likes to travel, one that is a premium customer and, and wants to sit in the front of the plane and spend more money.Second, you have a different product out there. Kind of you make your product better, and it's a better experience in the sky, and you give the customer an opportunity to subscribe to credit cards and loyalty program and have a full-service experience when they travel.Third, you change your distribution method. You kind of go more digital, as you said. We don't have inventory here, so it'd be more of -- you don't fly everywhere all the time and be everything to everyone. You are a more focused airline and give your customer a better experience. So, all of those things can drive better outcomes and better financial performance, both in the world of fashion retail as well as in the world of airlines.Alex Straton: So, Ravi, we've definitely identified some pretty startling similarities between fashion retail and airlines. Definitely more so than I appreciated when you called me a couple months ago to explore this topic. So, with that in mind, what are some of the differences and challenges to applying to airlines, a playbook taken from the world of fashion retail?Ravi Shanker: Right, so, look, I mean, they are obviously very different industries, right? For instance, clothing is a basic human staple; air travel and going on vacations is not. It's a lot more discretionary. The industry is a lot more consolidated in the airline space compared to the world of retail. Air travel is also a lot more premium compared to the entire retail industry. But when you look at premium retail and what some of those brands have done where brands really make a difference, the product really makes a difference. I think there are a lot more similarities than differences between those premium retail brands on the airline industry.So, Alex, going back to you, given the success of the turnaround model that you've discussed, do you think more retail businesses will adopt it? And are there any risks if that becomes a norm?Alex Straton: The reality is Ravi, I breezed through those five key enablers in a super clear manner. But, first, you know, the enablers of a turnaround in my view are only super clear in hindsight. And then secondly, one thing I want to just re-emphasize again is that a turnaround of the nature I described isn't something that happens overnight. Shifting something like your consumer base or changing investor perception of discounting activity is a multi year, incredibly difficult task; meaning turnarounds are also often multi year affairs, if ever successful at all.So, looking ahead, given how rare retail turnarounds have proven to be historically, I think while many businesses in my coverage area are super intrigued by some of this recent success; at the same time, I think they're eyes wide open that it's much easier said than done, with execution far from certain in any given turnaround.Ravi Shanker: Got it. I think the good news from my perspective is that hindsight and time both the best teachers, especially when put together. And so, I think the learnings of some of the success stories in your sector can not only be lessons for other companies in your space; they can also be lessons in my space. And like I said, I think some airlines have already started embarking on this turnaround, others are looking to see what they can do here. And I'm sure again, best practices and lessons can be shared from one sector to another. So, Alex, thanks so much for taking the time to talk to us today.Alex Straton: It was great to speak with you, Ravi.Ravi Shanker: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the show and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Happy Pride Month! Ali's guest today is Michael, one of the dads behind Two Dads U.K., whose mission is to raise awareness of same-sex parenting and help other same-sex couples and other single gay people realize that becoming a parent shouldn't just be a dream. Michael talks about coming out; building a family with his husband, Wes; the 3-4 years they researched surrogacy; the birth of their daughter, Talulah; and how they're working hard to make LGBTQ parenting better, safer and more equal. Support this podcast at: https://redcircle.com/infertile-af/donations Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this story, Bernice is in bed and ready to tell her story. Papa Bear tells her a story about a unicorn named Sparkle. Bobby Blue Jay wakes up Sparkle, and when she gets out of bed, Bobby starts acting strangely. She quickly flies off and comes back with her big sister, Bluebell. Sparkle doesn't know why everyone is acting so strangely. What could be the matter?  Sleep Tight!, Sheryl & Clark❤️

Our Global Chief Economist explains why the rapid hikes, pause and pivot of the current interest rate cycle are reminiscent of the 1990s.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be talking about the current interest rate cycle and the parallels we can draw from the 1990s.It's Monday, April 8th, at 10am in New York.Last year, we reiterated the view that the 1990s remain a useful cycle to consider for understanding the current cycle. Our European equity strategy colleagues shared our view, and they've used that episode to inform their ‘out of consensus, bullish initiation on European equities' in January. No two cycles are identical, but as we move closer to a Fed cut, we reassess the key aspects of that comparison.We had previously argued that the current interest rate cycle and the mid 90s cycle differ from the intervening cycles because the goal now is to bring inflation down, rather than preventing it from rising. Of course, inflation was already falling when the 1994 cycle started, in part, because of the recession in 1991.This cycle -- because much of the inflation was driven by COVID-related shocks, like supply chains for consumer goods and shifts in housing for shelter inflation -- inflation started falling rapidly from its peak before the first hike could have possibly had any effect. In recent months, our economic growth forecasts have been regularly revised upward, even as we have largely hit our expected path for inflation.A labor supply shock appears to be a contributing factor that accounts for some of that forecast deviation, although fiscal policy likely contributed to the real side's strength as well. Supply shocks to the labor market are an interesting point of comparison for the two cycles. In the 1990s, labor force growth was still benefiting from this multi-decade rise in labor force participation among females. The aggregate labor force participation rate did not reach its peak until 2000.Now, as we've noted in several publications, the surge in immigration is providing a similar supply side boost, at least for a couple of years. But the key lesson for me for the policy cycle is that monetary policy is not on a pre-set, predetermined course merely rising, peaking and then falling. Cycles can be nuanced. In 1994, the Fed hiked the funds rate to 6 per cent, paused at that peak and then cut 75 basis points over 1995 and 1996. After that, the next policy move was actually a hike, not a cut.Currently, we think the Fed starts cutting rates in June; and for now, we expect that cutting to continue into next year. But as our US team has noted, the supply side revisions mean that the path for policy next year is just highly uncertain and subject to review. From 1994 to 1996, job gains trended down, much like they have over the past two years.That slowing was reflective of a broader slowing in the economy that prompted the Fed to stop hiking and partially reverse course. So, should we expect the same now, only a very partial reversal? Well, it's too soon to tell, and as we've argued, the faster labor supply growth expands both aggregate demand and aggregate supply -- so a somewhat tighter policy stance could be appropriate.In 1996, inflation stopped falling, and subsequently rose into 1997, and it was that development that supported the Fed's decision to maintain their somewhat restrictive policy. But we can't forget, afterward, inflation resumed its downward trajectory, with core PCE inflation eventually falling below 1.5 per cent, suggesting that that need to stop cutting and resume hiking, well, probably needs to be re-examined.So, no two cycles match, and the comparison may break down. To date, the rapid hikes, pause and pivot, along with a seeming soft landing, keeps that comparison alive. The labor supply shock parallel is notable, but it also points to what might be, just might be, another possible parallel.In the late 1990s, there was a rise in labor productivity, and we've written here many times about the potential contributions that AI might bring to labor productivity in coming years.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen to podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

To celebrate Women's History Month he is the first of two episodes recorded during the pandemic about the history of Broadway Costume design with special guest Ann Hould-Ward. Irene Sharraff is the legendary Broadway costume designer whose incredible 56-year career spanned from 1933 to 1989. She designed the costumes for more than 52 Broadway musicals including As Thousands Cheer, Jubilee, On Your Toes, The Boys From Syracuse, Lady In The Dark, The King And I, West Side Story, Flower Drum Song, Funny Girl, Sweet Charity, and Jerome Robbins Broadway. She was nominated for six Tony Awards and won the Tony for The King And I, and she received five Academy Awards for her designs for the now classic films An American In Paris, The King And I, West Side Story, Cleopatra, and Who's Afraid Of Virginia Woolf. One of the main threads of this podcast is how the arts and crafts of the Broadway Musical have been handed down directly from one practitioner to the next, generation to generation. Irene Sharaff is at the center of a succession of dynamic women that goes back more than 100 years to the earliest days of the Broadway Musical and continues right up to today. All of these women were mentored by one or more of the great female designers that came before them, all of them became Tony Award-winning star designers in their own right, and all of them have passed on the art and craft of theatrical costume design to the next generation. In this episode, I trace the legacy chain of Broadway costume design that was handed down from Aileen Bernstein to Irene Sharaff to Patricia Zipprott to Ann Hould-Ward. I recently had the pleasure of discussing all this with Ann Hould-Ward herself. Ann Hould-Ward is the Tony Award-winning costume designer whose work includes the original Broadway productions of Beauty And The Beast, Into The Woods, Sunday In The Park With George, Falsettos, and the revival of The Color Purple. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Listen to Peter Mansbridge's chat with Former Prime Minster of Canada Brian Mulroney in South Africa in 2013 for the CBC.

This is a special encore episode of Broadway Nation. 1970s Broadway experienced another blast from the past with the return of the Black Musical. More than a dozen hit black musicals opened during the decade, and three of them won the Tony Award for BEST MUSICAL. About half of these were new, original musical plays – mostly adaptations of popular plays or novels. All of them employed a combination of rhythm & blues, pop, rock, jazz and traditional Broadway style music to help tell their stories.  The other half were musical revues that showcased the classic songs of the great black songwriters of the 1920s, 30s and 40s. These shows represented a significant black wing of the ongoing Nostalgia Craze. Please join me as I explore the musical plays PURLIE, RAISIN, and THE WIZ,; the gospel musicals DON'T BOTHER ME I CAN'T COPE, AND YOUR ARMS TOO SHORT TO BOX WITH GOD.; and the songbook revues BUBBLING BROWN SUGAR, AIN'T MISBEHAVIN', EUBIE!, SOPHISTICATED LADIES, and BLACK AND BLUE.  Become a PATRON of Broadway Nation! I want to thank our Broadway Nation Patron Club members, such as our newest member Cheryl Hodges-Selden whose generous support helps to make it possible for me to bring this podcast to you each week. If you would like to support the creation of Broadway Nation, here is the information about how you too can become a patron. For just $7.00 a month, you will receive exclusive access to never-before-heard, unedited versions of many of the discussions that I have with my guests — in fact I often record nearly twice as much conversation as ends up in the edited versions. You will also have access to additional in-depth conversations with my frequent co-host Albert Evans that have not been featured on the podcast.  All patrons receive special “on-air” shout-outs and acknowledgment of your vital support of this podcast. And if you are very enthusiastic about Broadway Nation there are additional PATRON levels that come with even more benefits. If you would like to support the work of Broadway Nation and receive these exclusive member benefits, please just click on this link: https://broadwaynationpodcast.supercast.tech/ Thank you in advance for your support! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In recognition of Black History Month, this highlight program celebrates outstanding performances by Black musicians on From the Top through the years. Hosted by Peter Dugan and David Norville, an alumnus, oboist, and former Assistant Producer at From the Top.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

My guest today is theatrical animal trainer Bill Berloni. Beginning with the original production of ANNIE in 1977, Bill has provided and trained animals of all species and sizes for 27 Broadway musicals and plays, as well as for countless Off-Broadway shows, National Tours, regional theaters, movies, television shows, commercials and the NYC Ballet – and he found almost all of those animal actors in shelters, humane societies and rescue leagues.  His awards include a 2011 Tony Honor for “Excellence in the Theater”, a 2014 Outer Critics Circle Award for “Special Achievement”, and a 2017 Drama League Award for “Unique Contribution to the Theatre” all in acknowledgment of an incredible Broadway career that has included two revivals of Annie, The Woman In White, Gypsy, Legally Blonde, The Lt of Inishmore, A Christmas Story, and The Ferryman.  Bill recently released a third edition of his book, Broadway Tails: Heartfelt Stories Of Rescued Dogs Who Became Show Biz Superstars. I have to say it's a surprisingly affecting book, and I was not expecting to be tearing up as many times as I did when I was reading the new edition in preparation for this podcast. Broadway Nation is written and produced by me – David Armstrong. I invite you to follow Broadway Nation on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram – where you can find out more about my guests and episodes and interact with a large and lively community of Broadway fans. Become a PATRON of Broadway Nation! I want to thank our Broadway Nation Patron Club members, such as John Schroeder and Alan Brodie whose generous support helps to make it possible for me to bring this podcast to you each week. If you would like to support the creation of Broadway Nation, here is the information about how you too can become a patron. For just $7.00 a month, you will receive exclusive access to never-before-heard, unedited versions of many of the discussions that I have with my guests — in fact I often record nearly twice as much conversation as ends up in the edited versions. You will also have access to additional in-depth conversations with my frequent co-host Albert Evans that have not been featured on the podcast.  All patrons receive special “on-air” shout-outs and acknowledgment of your vital support of this podcast. And if you are very enthusiastic about Broadway Nation there are additional PATRON levels that come with even more benefits. If you would like to support the work of Broadway Nation and receive these exclusive member benefits, please just click on this link: https://broadwaynationpodcast.supercast.tech/ Thank you in advance for your support! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

My guest this week is Ted Chapin whose captivating 2003 book Everything Was Possible: The Birth of the Musical “Follies,” has recently been reissued in a revised and updated edition.  As you may know, this book is based on Ted's first-hand experience as the production assistant on the original Broadway production of the Stephen Sondheim, Hal Prince, & James Goldman landmark musical Follies. Of course, the expression, “I just couldn't put that book down” is a cliché – but in this case, it has been absolutely true – twice! -- both when I read this book when it was originally released, and again just a few weeks ago when I had the great pleasure of diving into it all over again. On last week's episode, Peter Filichia, talked about wanting to be able to go back in time and be a “fly on the wall” to witness the inner workings of legendary musicals as they were being put together. Ted's book allows all of us to do exactly that. This book makes you feel as it you are right there in the thick of it during Follies' rehearsal period in New York, and in Boston during its out-of-town tryout's many trials and tribulations. For 40 years Ted served as the President of The Rodgers & Hammerstein Organization a role that he was personally chosen by the Rodgers and Hammerstein families to take on. On his watch, there were eight Tony Award-winning Best Revivals of musicals in the R&H catalog -- On Your Toes, Carousel, Show Boat, Annie Get Your Gun, South Pacific, The King And I – twice! – and Oklahoma! He also supervised major R&H productions In London, on television, and around the world. And Ted is the co-founder of the acclaimed City Center Encores! series, and he currently serves on the boards of City Center, The Kurt Weil Foundation, and the American Theatre Wing. It is always a delight to speak with him – especially regarding his one-of-a-kind experience of being in the rooms where Follies happened.  Become a PATRON of Broadway Nation! I want to thank our Broadway Nation Patron Club members, such as John Schroeder and Alan Brodie whose generous support helps to make it possible for me to bring this podcast to you each week. If you would like to support the creation of Broadway Nation, here is the information about how you too can become a patron. For a just $7.00 a month you will receive exclusive access to never-before-heard, unedited versions of many of the discussions that I have with my guests — in fact I often record nearly twice as much conversation as ends up in the edited versions. You will also have access to additional in-depth conversations with my frequent co-host Albert Evans that have not been featured on the podcast.  All patrons receive special “on-air” shout-outs and acknowledgement of your vital support of this podcast. And if you are very enthusiastic about Broadway Nation there are additional PATRON levels that come with even more benefits. If you would like to support the work of Broadway Nation and receive these exclusive member benefits, please just click on this link: https://broadwaynationpodcast.supercast.tech/ Thank you in advance for your support! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Original Release on January, 5th 2024: Should investors be concerned about a sluggish beginning to the year, or do they just need to be patient?----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about trends across the global investment landscape and how we put those ideas together. It's Friday, January 5th at 2 p.m. in London. 2023 saw a strong finish to a strong year, with stocks higher, spreads and yields lower and minimal market volatility. That strength in turn flowed from three converging hopeful factors. First, there was great economic data, which generally pointed to a US economy that was growing with inflation moderating. Second, we had helpful so-called technical factors such as depressed investor sentiment and the historical tendency for markets, especially credit markets, to do well in the last two months of the year. And third, we had reasonable valuations which had cheapened up quite a bit in October. Even more broadly, 2024 offered and still offers a lot to look forward to. Morgan Stanley's economists see global growth holding up as inflation in the U.S. and Europe come down. Major central banks from the US to Europe to Latin America should start cutting rates in 2024, while so-called quantitative tightening or the shrinking of central bank balance sheets should begin to wind down. And more specifically, for credit, we see 2024 as a year of strong demand for corporate bonds, against more modest levels of bond issuance, a positive balance of supply versus demand. So why, given all of these positives, has January gotten off to a rocky, sluggish start? It's perhaps because those good things don't necessarily arrive right away. Starting with the economic data, Morgan Stanley's economists forecast that the recent decline in inflation, so helpful to the rally over November and December, will see a bumpier path over the next several months, leaving the Fed to wait until June to make their first rate cut. The overall trend is still for lower, better inflation in 2024, but the near-term picture may be a little murky. Moving to those so-called technical factors, investor sentiment now is substantially higher than where it was in October, making it harder for events to positively surprise. And for credit, seasonally strong performance in November and December often gives way to somewhat weaker January and February returns. At least if we look at the performance over the last ten years. And finally, valuations where the cheapening in October was so helpful to the recent rally, have entered the year richer, across stocks, bonds and credit. None of these, in our view, are insurmountable problems, and the base case expectation from Morgan Stanley's economists means there is still a lot to look forward to in 2024. From better growth, to lower inflation, to easier monetary policy. The strong end of 2023 may just mean that some extra patience is required to get there. Thanks for listening. Subscribe to Thoughts on the Market on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen, and leave us a review. We'd love to hear from you.

Original Release on November, 7th 2023: AI could help video game companies boost engagement and consumer spending, but could also introduce competition by making it easier for new companies to enter the industry.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matt Cost from the Morgan Stanley US Internet Team. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll discuss how A.I could change the video game industry. It's Tuesday, November 7th at 10 a.m. in New York. New A.I tools are starting to transform multiple industries, and it's hardly a surprise that the game industry could see a major impact as well. As manual tasks become more automated and the user experience becomes increasingly personalized, A.I. tools are starting to change the way that games are made and operated. Building video games involves many different disciplines, including software development, art and writing, among others. Many of these processes could become more automated over time, reducing the cost and complexity of making games and likely reducing barriers to entry. And since we expect the industry to spend over $100 billion this year building and operating games, there's a significant profit opportunity for the industry to become more efficient. Automated content creation could also offer more tailored experiences and purchase options to consumers in real time, potentially boosting engagement and consumer spending. Consider, for example, a game that not only makes offers when a consumer is most likely to spend money, but also generates in-game items designed to appeal to that specific person's preferences in real time. Beyond A.I generated content, we also need to consider the impact of user generated content. Some popular titles already depend on the users to shape the game around them, and this is another core area that could be transformed by A.I.. Faster and easier to use content creation tools could make it easier for games to tap into the creativity of their users. And as we've seen with major social platforms, relying on users to create content can be a big opportunity. With all that said, these transformational opportunities create downside risk as well. Today's large game publishers rely on their scale and domain expertise to differentiate their products from competitors. But while new A.I. tools could make game development more efficient, they could also lower barriers to entry for new competitors to jump into the fray and put pressure on the incumbents. Another risk is that A.I. tools could fail to drive the hope for efficiencies and cost savings in the first place. Not all technology breakthroughs in the past have helped the industry become more profitable. In some cases, industry leaders have decided to reinvest cost savings back into their products to make sure that they deliver bigger and better games to stay ahead of the competition. With that in mind, the biggest challenge for today's industry leaders could be making sure that they find ways to differentiate their products as A.I. tools make it easier for new firms to compete. Where does all of that leave us? Although a number of A.I. tools are already being used in the game industry today, adoption is just beginning to tick up and there's a lot of room for the tools to improve. With that in mind, we think we're just on the cusp of this A.I. driven revolution, and we may have to get through a few more castles to find the princess. Thanks for listening. If you enjoyed the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Original Release on November, 2nd 2023: Generative AI could transform the nature of work and boost productivity, but companies and governments will need to invest in reskilling.----- Transcript -----Stephen Byrd: Welcome to Thoughts in the Market. I'm Stephen Byrd, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Sustainability Research. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, the Global Chief Economist. Stephen Byrd: And on the special episode of the podcast, we'll discuss how generative A.I. could reshape the US economy and the labor market. It's Thursday, November 2nd at 10 a.m. in New York. Stephen Byrd: If we think back to the early 90's, few could have predicted just how revolutionary the Internet would become. Creating entirely new professions and industries with a wide ranging impact on labor and global economies. And yet with generative A.I. here we are again on the cusp of a revolution. So, Seth, as our global chief economist, you've been assessing the overarching macro implications of the Gen A.I. phenomenon. And while it's still early days, I know you've been thinking about the range of impacts Gen A.I could have on the global economy. I wondered if you could walk us through the broad parameters of your thinking around macro impacts and maybe starting with the productivity and the labor market side of things? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely, Stephen. And I agree with you, the possibilities here are immense. The hardest part of all of this is trying to gauge just how big the effects might be, when they might happen and how soon anyone is going to be able to pick up on the true changes and things. But let's talk a little bit about those two components, productivity and the labor market. They are very closely connected to each other. So one of the key things about generative A.I is it could make lots of types of processes, lots of types of jobs, things that are very knowledge base intensive. You could do the same amount of work with fewer people or, and I think this is an important thing to keep in mind, you could do lots more work with the same number of people. And I think that distinction is really critical, lots of people and I'm sure you've heard this before, lots of people have a fear that generative A.I is going to come in and destroy lots of jobs and so we'll just have lots of people who are out of work. And I guess I'm at the margin a lot more optimistic than that. I really do think what we're going to end up seeing is more output with the same amount of workers, and indeed, as you alluded to before, more types of jobs than we've seen before. That doesn't exactly answer your question so let's jump into those broad parameters. If productivity goes up, what that means is we should see faster growth in the economy than we're used to seeing and I think that means things like GDP should be growing faster and that should have implications for equities. In addition, because more can get done with the same inputs, we should see some of the inflationary pressures that we're seeing now dissipate even more quickly. And what does that mean? Well, that means that at least in the short run, the central bank, the Fed in the U.S., can allow the economy to run a little bit hotter than you would have thought otherwise, because the inflationary pressures aren't there after all. Those are the two for me, the key things one, faster growth in the economy with the same amount of inputs and some lower inflationary pressures, which makes the central bank's job a little bit easier. Stephen Byrd: And Seth, as you think about specific sectors and regions of the global economy that might be most impacted by the adoption of Gen A.I., does anything stand out to you? Seth Carpenter: I mean, I really do think if we're focusing just on generative A.I, it really comes down, I think a lot to what can generative A.I do better. It's a lot of these large language models, a lot of that sort of knowledge based side of things. So the services sector of the economy seems more ripe for turnover than, say, the plain old fashion manufacturing sector. Now, I don't want to push that too far because there are clearly going to be lots of ways that people in all sectors will learn how to apply these technology. But I think the first place we see adoption is in some of the knowledge based sectors. So some of the prime candidates people like to point to are things like the legal profession where review of documents can be done much more quickly and efficiently with Gen A.I. In our industry, Stephen in the financial services industry, I have spoken with clients who are working to find ways to consume lots more information on lots of different types of firms so that as they're assessing equity market investments, they have better information, faster information and can invest in a broader set of firms than they had before. I really look to the knowledge based sectors of the economy as the first target. You know, so that Stephen is mostly how I'm thinking about it, but one of the things I love about these conversations with you is that I get to start asking questions and so here it is right back at you. I said that I thought generative A.I is not going to leave large swaths of the population unemployed, but I've heard you say that generative A.I is really going to set the stage for an unprecedented demand in reskilling workers. What kind of private sector support from corporations and what sort of public sector support from governments do you expect to see? Stephen Byrd: Yeah Seth, I mean, that point about reskilling, I think, is one of the most important elements of the work that we've been doing together. This could be the biggest reskilling initiative that we'll ever see, given how broad generative A.I really is and how many different professions generative A.I could impact. Now, when we think about the job impacts, we do see potential benefits from private public partnerships. They would be really focused on reskilling and upskilling workers and respond to the changes to the very nature of work that's going to be driven by Gen A.I. And an example of some real promising efforts in that regard was the White House industry joint efforts in this regard to think about ways to reskill the workforce. That said, there really are multiple unknowns with respect to the pace and the depth of the employment impacts from A.I. So it's very challenging to really scope out the magnitude and cadence a nd that makes joint planning for reskilling and upskilling highly challenging. Seth Carpenter: I hear what you're saying, Stephen, and it is always hard looking into the future to try to suss out what's going on but when we think about the future of work, you talked about the possibility that Gen A.I could change the nature of work. Speculate here a little bit for me. What do you think? What could be those changes in terms of the actual nature of work? Stephen Byrd: Yeah, you know, that's what's really fascinating about Gen A.I and also potentially in terms of the nature of work and the need to be flexible. You know, I think job gains and losses will heavily depend on whether skills can be really transferred, whether new skills can be picked up. For those with skills that are easy to transfer to other tasks in occupations, you know, disruptions could be short lived. To this point the tech sector recently experienced heavy layoffs, but employees were quickly absorbed by the rest of the economy because of overall tight labor market, something you've written a lot about Seth. And in fact, the number of tech layoffs was around 170,000 in the first quarter of 2023. That's a 17 fold increase over the previous year. While most of these folks did find a new job within three months of being laid off, so we do see this potential for movements, reskilling, etc., to be significant. But it certainly depends a lot on the skill set and how transferable that skill set really is. Seth Carpenter: How do you start to hire people at the beginning of this sort of revolution? And so when you think about those changes in the labor market, do you think there are going to be changes in the way people hire folks? Once Gen A.I becomes more widespread. Do you think workers end up getting hired based on the skill set that they can demonstrate on some sort of credentials? Are we going to see somehow in either diplomas or other sorts of certificates, things that are labeled A.I? Stephen Byrd: You know, I think there is going to be a big shift away from credentials and more heavily towards skills, specific skill sets. Especially skills that involve creativity and also skills involving just complex human interactions, human negotiations as well. And it's going to be critical to prioritize skills over credentials going forward as, especially as we think about reskilling and retraining a number of workers, that's going to be such a broad effort. I think the future work will require hiring managers to prioritize these skills, especially these soft skills that I think are going to be more difficult for A.I models to replace. We highlight a number of skills that really will be more challenging to automate versus those that are less challenging. And I think that essentially is a guidepost to think about where reskilling should really be focused. Seth Carpenter: Well, Stephen, I have to say I'd be able to talk with you about these sorts of things all day long, but I think we've run out of time. So let me just say, thank you for taking some time to talk to me today. Stephen Byrd: It was great speaking with you, Seth.Seth Carpenter: And thanks to the listeners for listening. If you enjoyed Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.