Podcast appearances and mentions of Bill Dudley

Bill Dudley, former New York Fed President and Bloomberg Opinion columnist, says the Federal Reserve can and should do better on preparing markets and the public on the potential unknows that can negatively impact the US economy. His opinions are his own. Dudley spoke with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chairman of St. Johns County's Veterans Council Lt. Col. Bill Dudley joins us in studio to talk about Memorial Day.

Bill Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion columnist and a former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, says the US-China tariff pause does not solve the Fed's problems. Dudley says the Fed needs more information and will likely be late on cutting interest rates. He speaks with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro and Lisa AbramowiczSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bill Dudley, former New York Fed President and Bloomberg Opinion columnist, says tariffs being bad for growth and inflation puts the Federal Reserve in a bind, with the central bank on hold waiting for more information. Dudley spoke with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Opinion Columnist and former New York Fed President Bill Dudley discusses Fed uncertainty while anticipating Trump's policies, labor market weakening, and economic forecast for 2025. Tariffs and deportations will have a grave effect on the economy in 2025, explains Dudley. He speaks with hosts Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Hordern. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bill Dudley, former New York Fed President, Bloomberg Opinion columnist, and Bloomberg Economics senior advisor, expects the Federal Reserve to make assumptions about the extension of the 2017 tax cuts. He speaks with Bloomberg's Lisa Abramowicz, Annmarie Hordern, and Dani BurgerSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today's blockchain and cryptocurrency news  Bitcoin is down half a percent at $99,464 Eth is up slightly at $4,006 XRP, up 1.5% at $2.47 Top gainers in the last 24 hours: Hedra, up 22% NY Fed president Bill Dudley writes op-ed on proposed BTC reserve UK FCA says pump.fun not authorized in country. FDIC asked financial institutions to pause crypto-related activities Czech republic approves BTC exception for capital gains. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bill Dudley, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, and former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, talks about how President-elect Donald Trump could impact the Fed. He is joined by Bloomber's Annmarie Hordern, Dani Burger, and Manus Cranny.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bill Dudley of the Veteran's Council is in studio to give Mike Davis and Producer Amanda an update on Veteran's Day Celebration and the Veteran's Village "This Evening."

Bloomberg Opinion Columnist Bill Dudley discusses his predictions on the US economy, how it has actually played out and what to expect. Dudley speaks with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Hordern. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former NY Fed President/Bloomberg Opinion columnist Bill Dudley discusses his call for the Fed to cut 50 bps with Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Quer melhorar a performance da sua carteira e minimizar os riscos? Preencha o formulário para participar da pré consultoria com o meu time de especialistas e conhecer a estratégia de maior sucesso da Levante: https://app.pipefy.com/public/form/Jy... Fundos Imobiliários com Leonardo Verissimo 13/9. O Ibovespa voltou a subir um pouco hoje, 0,64%, para 134.882 pontos, com volume regular de R$ 20 bilhões, R$ 5 bilhões abaixo da média de R$ 25 bilhões das sextas. Por que a Bolsa performou assim? 1º. A bolsa abriu em alta e foi até 135,8 mil, às 11h45, para depois começar a recuar até 134,7 mil, às 15h05, para depois recuperar um pouco e fechar a 134.882 pontos. O volume de R$ 20 bi foi animador e o melhor da semana que estava fraco em torno de R$ 17 bi. 2º. Foi um dia de volta de investidores aproveitando a queda de várias ações na semana como: B3, Sabesp, BB e Eletrobras. Das 15 ações mais negociadas apenas Petrobras e Ambev cederam um pouco enquanto 13 subiram com destaques para: Embraer, Lojas Renner, PRIO, Localiza e Rede Dor. 3º. O preço do petróleo subiu um pouco, 0,20%, fechando a US$ 72,1 de US$ 72, ontem, dentro do limite da volatilidade diária de -/+2%, com notícias menos preocupantes do furacão no Golfo do México. 4º. O preço do minério de ferro recuou -2% para U.S$ 97,7 de US$ 99,3 por tonelada, ontem, dentro da volatilidade diária de -/+2%, e sem novidades. 5º. As bolsas americanas subiram mais hoje, 0,65% o Nasdaq e 0,75% Dow Jones. O movimento de hoje é explicado pela declaração do presidente do Fed de Nova Iorque, Bill Dudley, de que “há motivos fortes para um corte de 0,50% dos juros” do Fed, na próxima quarta-feira, dia 18 de setembro. 6º. O dólar à vista ficou recuou 5 centavos, -0,90%, para R$ 3,57 de R$ 5,62, ontem, seguindo o comportamento no exterior da moeda norte-americana que caiu -0,25% frente moedas fortes. 7º. Nos EUA, os juros dos títulos de 10-anos caíram um pouco para 3,66% de 3,68% a.a. depois da declaração do presidente do Fed de Nova Iorque de que há motivos para os juros serem cortados em 0,50% a.a. No Brasil, as taxas de juros dos títulos do Tesouro do Brasil caíram, seguindo as taxas americanas, com o Prefixado 2031 atingindo 12,00% de 12,08% a.a., ontem. Porém, essas taxas continuam muito altas tal qual o dólar. 8º. O saldo de investimentos estrangeiros no mercado secundário da Bovespa, de ações já em circulação, ficou negativo em R$ 455 milhões na quarta-feira, 11 de setembro, conforme dados da B3. No mês de setembro, o saldo acumulado pelos estrangeiros está negativo em R$ 2,1 bilhões. No ano, os estrangeiros tiraram da Bovespa R$ 23,6 bilhões. Os estrangeiros respondem por 56,10% do volume negociado em setembro e por 54,70% do volume no ano. O volume médio diário negociado na Bovespa está menor este mês, com R$ 19,0 bilhões trocando de mãos por dia, ante R$ 27,1 bilhões em agosto e R$ 23,6 bilhões na média do ano. MAIORES ALTAS AZUL4 +22.52% R$ 4,95 CVCB3 +14.29% R$ 2,08 BRKM5 +7.84% R$ 19,39 EZTC3 +6.89% R$ 14,74 YDUQ3 +5.28% R$ 10,96 MAIORES BAIXAS ASAI3 -2.98% R$ 8,80 CRFB3 -2.67% R$ 9,11 NTCO3 -1.52% R$ 14,25 JBSS3 -1.49% R$ 32,99 VBBR3 -1.32% R$ 25,35 Conheça a Levante Investimentos: Conheça nossas *Séries de Investimentos*: https://lvnt.app/4q3u3b Acompanhe nosso Instagram:   / levante.investimentos   Fique ligado nas principais notícas do mercado no nosso canal no Telegram: https://lvnt.app/zuntm0

Bill Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion columnist and Bloomberg Economics senior advisor, expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. He spoke with Bloomberg's Romaine Bostick and Alix Steel. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Join the team discussing the great rotation, Bill Dudley, Q2 GDP numbers, Non farm payrolls and much more!Remember to check out the links below.Token2049 week in Singapore - 16-22 September.https://www.asia.token2049.com/tickets 15% Discount Code: realvisionFREE macro newsletter - https://stenoresearch.com/free/Find out more at www.stenoresearch.com/subscribe Host: Andreas Steno & Mikkel RosenvoldFind our Crypto coverage here -https://stenoresearch.com/category/crypto-moves/If you enjoy our content, Please subscribe to our Youtube Channel:➡️ https://tinyurl.com/23hp3vah

Will Bitcoin surge past $100,000 by 2025? Discover why Co-Founder and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global, Tom Lee, believes now is the time to invest, his predictions on the market and Bitcoin's future. In this episode of ‘Speak Up,' Anthony Scaramucci sits down with Tom Lee, Co-Founder and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global. Tom shares his insights on the current economic climate, explores the potential for significant Fed rate cuts, and why he believes small cap stocks are set for a major rally. Lee also makes a bold prediction that Bitcoin could hit $100,000 by the end of the year. Fundstrat's Tom Lee is one of the leading strategists on Wall Street and his famed Granny Shots stock list has outperformed the S&P by MORE than 100% since inception. Anyone interested in full access to Tom Lee's institutional-grade research – including daily videos, market alerts, webinars, and fireside chats with CEOs and industry leaders – can sign up at fsinsight.com. Exclusive to Speak Up listeners, you can access all of Tom's research at no cost for 30 days! Learn more here: https://bit.ly/speakup-tomlee Timestamps: 0:00 - Introduction 2:42 - Federal Reserve Rate Cuts Discussion 3:37 - Why Tom Lee is Bullish on Small Cap Stocks 5:21 - Bill Dudley's Comments on Rate Cuts 6:22 - Fed Rate Cut Scenarios 7:45 - Market Predictions for 2030 9:54 - Concerns About US Debt 10:44 - Bitcoin's Performance and Future 14:09 - Geopolitical Impacts on Markets 16:12 - Election Predictions 18:42 - Regulatory Shifts in Crypto 20:18 - Investment Advice: Small Cap Stocks 22:07 - Viewer Q&A: Gold Investments 23:23 - Viewer Q&A: Short-term Cash Investments 24:49 - Viewer Q&A: Rolling Over 401k to IRA 26:00 - Viewer Q&A: Bitcoin Market Cap Predictions 27:33 - Viewer Q&A: Crypto Use Cases 28:40 - Conclusion

Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Sarah Campos e Yara Cordeiro debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo.⁠ ⁠ ⁠No cenário internacional, foi divulgado o PIB do 2º trimestre nos EUA, mais forte que o anterior, puxado principalmente pela parte de consumo. Ainda por lá, foi divulgado o número oficial de inflação acompanhado pelo Fed (PCE), com leitura benigna, como esperado. O ex-presidente do Fed de NY, Bill Dudley, escreveu uma coluna afirmando que o Fed deveria iniciar o corte de juros já na próxima reunião – visão diferente da que carregava até então. Na Europa, os dados de atividade seguiram decepcionando; na China, o banco central cortou juros; no Japão, a inflação de Tóquio veio um pouco melhor que o esperado. ⁠ No Brasil, foi divulgado o Relatório de Avaliação de Receitas e Despesas do 3º bimestre, que trouxe ampliação do déficit esperado para o ano, no limite inferior da banda. O IPCA-15 de julho surpreendeu para cima, tanto no headline, quanto na parte de serviços, mas com contribuição relevante de passagens aéreas e seguros de automóveis, sendo esse último afetado pelas enchentes do Rio Grande do Sul. ⁠ Nos EUA, os juros fecharam (2 anos -13 bps), e o desempenho das bolsas foi marcado pela continuidade de um movimento de rotação setorial – Nasdaq -2,56%, S&P500 -0,83% e Russell 2000 +3,47%. Resultados piores que o esperado, como do Google e da Tesla, influenciaram tais performances. No Brasil, os juros abriram (jan/26 +27 bps), o Ibovespa caiu 0,10% e o real desvalorizou 1,05%. ⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Na próxima semana será importante acompanhar as reuniões dos bancos centrais dos EUA, Japão, Inglaterra e Brasil; os dados de emprego (JOLTS e Payroll) e atividade (ISM) americanos, além de mais resultados corporativos (como Microsoft, Apple, Meta e Amazon); e o PIB do 2º trimestre e a inflação de julho na Europa. ⁠ Não deixe de conferir!⁠

The S&P Global Services Index is "great," in contradiction to other eocnomic metrics; the first estimate of Q2 GDP is released today (up 2.8%); this will be revised. Important to note the behavior of GDP prior to past recessions, which are always back-dated. 350-days without a 2% correction, until Wednesday. Bill Dudley is calling for lower interest rates now; Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explain the crucial link between consumer confidence and economic performance. Learn how sentiment drives markets and impacts your personal finances: The relationship between financial confidence and spending habits; the effects of market decline on consumer behavior; how sentiment influences economic performance; the role of confidence in personal financial decisions; why sentiment is a key factor in market dynamics. High School photos, Peter Frampton, and mullets; market commentary on watermarking portfolios; to Michael, the market feels like it's "blowing up:" someone is being forced to liquidate positions. SEG-1: 350-days Without Correction...until SEG-2: Confidence is Key for a Thriving Economy SEG-3: Markets Can Stay Irrational Longer Than You Can Stay Solvent SEG-4: The Error in Watermarking Portfolios Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpMR4QMJitc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Interest Rates Are Too High – Blame The Mythical R Star" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/interest-rates-are-too-high-blame-the-mythical-r-star/ "Irrational Exuberance Then And Now" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/irrational-exuberance-then-and-now/ "The Bull Market – Could It Just Be Getting Started?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-bull-market-could-it-just-be-getting-started/ "Can Mega-Capitalization Stocks Continue Their Dominance?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/can-mega-capitalization-stocks-continue-their-dominance/ "Russell Explodes Higher As Rotation Takes Hold" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will the Correction Reach 5%?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jhduZnaAuo&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "How to Invest - or not - in a Presidential Election" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLclO1Y9stI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Confidence #FinancialSituation #MarketImpact #Economy #ConsumerSpending #ConsumerSentiment #InvestorSentiment #PortfolioPerformance, #EconomicBehavior #FinancialMarkets #SpendingHabits #MarketDecline #Financial Health #EconomicSentiment #FinancialDecisions #InvestmentConfidence #ConsumerConfidence #MarketSentiment #EconomicImpact #SpendingPatterns #FinancialImpact #Markets #Money #Investing

The S&P Global Services Index is "great," in contradiction to other eocnomic metrics; the first estimate of Q2 GDP is released today (up 2.8%); this will be revised. Important to note the behavior of GDP prior to past recessions, which are always back-dated. 350-days without a 2% correction, until Wednesday. Bill Dudley is calling for lower interest rates now; Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explain the crucial link between consumer confidence and economic performance. Learn how sentiment drives markets and impacts your personal finances: The relationship between financial confidence and spending habits; the effects of market decline on consumer behavior; how sentiment influences economic performance; the role of confidence in personal financial decisions; why sentiment is a key factor in market dynamics. High School photos, Peter Frampton, and mullets; market commentary on watermarking portfolios; to Michael, the market feels like it's "blowing up:" someone is being forced to liquidate positions. SEG-1: 350-days Without Correction...until SEG-2: Confidence is Key for a Thriving Economy SEG-3: Markets Can Stay Irrational Longer Than You Can Stay Solvent SEG-4: The Error in Watermarking Portfolios Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpMR4QMJitc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Interest Rates Are Too High – Blame The Mythical R Star" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/interest-rates-are-too-high-blame-the-mythical-r-star/ "Irrational Exuberance Then And Now" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/irrational-exuberance-then-and-now/ "The Bull Market – Could It Just Be Getting Started?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-bull-market-could-it-just-be-getting-started/ "Can Mega-Capitalization Stocks Continue Their Dominance?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/can-mega-capitalization-stocks-continue-their-dominance/ "Russell Explodes Higher As Rotation Takes Hold" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will the Correction Reach 5%?" is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jhduZnaAuo&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "How to Invest - or not - in a Presidential Election" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLclO1Y9stI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Confidence #FinancialSituation #MarketImpact #Economy #ConsumerSpending #ConsumerSentiment #InvestorSentiment #PortfolioPerformance, #EconomicBehavior #FinancialMarkets #SpendingHabits #MarketDecline #Financial Health #EconomicSentiment #FinancialDecisions #InvestmentConfidence #ConsumerConfidence #MarketSentiment #EconomicImpact #SpendingPatterns #FinancialImpact #Markets #Money #Investing

Jay Powell speaks at Stanford, Loretta Mester says cuts will be a committee decision, Bill Dudley's Op-Ed, and ISM Services. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit https://www.narwhalcapital.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhalcapital.com/disclosure

Featuring:  -David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research Founder & President -Bill Dudley, Former NY Fed President & Bloomberg Opinion contributor -Brendan Carr, FCC Commissioner See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Radio host Barry Ritholtz speaks to Bill Dudley, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist and former president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he also served as vice chairman and a permanent member of the Federal Open Market Committee. He is the chair of the Bretton Woods Committee, and has been a nonexecutive director at Swiss bank UBS since 2019. Previously, he was executive vice president of the Markets Group at the New York Fed, where he also managed the System Open Market Account. He has also been a partner and managing director at Goldman Sachs & Co. and was the firm's chief US economist; vice president at the former Morgan Guaranty Trust Co. Ltd.; and chairman of the Committee on the Global Financial System of the Bank for International Settlements. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former New York Fed President and Bloomberg Opinion Columnist Bill Dudley reacts to the December jobs report and discusses what it means for the Federal Reserve. He speaks with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro, Tom Keene and Lisa Abramowicz.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Randy Kroszner, University of Chicago Professor of Economics & former Fed Governor, along with Bill Dudley, former NY Fed President & Bloomberg Opinion columnist, Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Chief International Strategist, and Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO Economist, break down December's stronger-than-expected US jobs report. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow, discusses the latest on oil with news that Maersk will avoid sending ships through the Red Sea for the 'foreseeable future' amid increasing violence from Houthi rebels.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Opinion columnist and former New York Fed President William Dudley says the market may be getting ahead of itself when it comes to Fed rate cuts. He speaks with hosts Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bill Dudley, former NY Fed President & Bloomberg Opinion columnist, says the market could be getting ahead of itself after Fed Chair Powell's optimistic outlook. Priya Misra, JP Morgan Asset Management Portfolio Manager, says markets are not pricing in the chance of Fed cuts below the 3% level. Jay Pelosky, TPW Advisory Principal & Founder, says that we're moving toward a rate cutting cycle in 2024. Elliot Ackerman, US Marine Corps Veteran & former White House Fellow, breaks down the latest on the Israel-Hamas war. Kevin Book, Clearview Energy Partners Co-Founder & Managing Director, discusses the impacts of ongoing attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillanceSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Opinion Columnist and Former NY Fed President Bill Dudley discusses the latest Fed decision with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, and Tom Keene. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Opinion Columnist and former NY Fed President Bill Dudley speaks on the state of the crypto industry with Bloomberg's Tom Keene, Lisa Abramowicz and Jonathan Ferro See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Cameron Dawson, Newedge Wealth Chief Investment Officer, says that signs of a recession will come from the market, not the Fed. Bill Dudley, Former NY Fed President & Bloomberg Opinion columnist, expects central banks to introduce digital currencies amid disarray in the crypto sector. Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Senior Equity Analyst, says AI can take the relationship between banks and technology to another level. Katy Kaminski, AlphaSimplex Chief Research Strategist, says she's concerned about the risk-on rally in the bond market. Norman Roule, Center for Strategic & International Studies Senior Adviser, breaks down the latest on the Israel-Hamas war amid the release of more hostages from Gaza. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full transcript:  This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Cameron Dawson tear eyed over the quality of that data. Check Cio of New Edge Wealth joining us right now. What's your conviction the next year? I'm talking about you need to get conviction. Now, do you have a lot of conviction? I think that we have to judge as we go into the end of the year when we look at where we in the year with positioning and sentiment and valuations and earnings expectations, because if we get to a point where those things are stretched, where people have been drawn into the market, everybody chases the market into a rallying to the year end, that's when you probably want to start asking questions of how sustainable or durable is We learned that lesson really powerfully this year in the opposite direction. People were underweight, valuations had come in, positioning was very light, and that set up for a very powerful year this year. One really difficult thing for a lot of people is to get two things right. Won the call on the economy and to what the economy means for financial markets. I was looking at Deutsche Bank's call yesterday least when I were going back and forth on this, They've got recession one hundred and seventy five basis points of cuts. Then bink chat is saying fifty one hundred on the SMP. Is good news bad news? Or is bad news good news? What is it? I mean, it's sort of that I want it all and I want it now kind of mentality, which is that I want a FED that's supportive, and I want an economy and earnings that are going to be growing very strongly. And I have to think that we need to ask the question of if a strong economy and strong earnings are consistent with having FED rate cuts and a recession, and if we can have both at the same time, meaning that if the FED is cutting rates, can we really grow earnings at twelve percent next year? Do we actually have the potential that we could have a third year in a row of earnings being closer to flat. If we have a recession. Well, this is John Sulfis basically saying people think we're late cycle, we're actually mid cycle. That if the Federal cuts rates is just sort of a mechanical year over year trying to adapt restrictiveness to inflation, and that that will pave the way for companies to continue to evolve, particularly in the consumer cyclicals. Thoughts. Yeah, it's interesting. You go back to the times when the Fed cut rates and we didn't have a recession ninety five, ninety eight, and twenty nineteen. What's interesting is that the Fed was actually very fearful of a recession in each of those times. They talked about the US not being an island. What's interesting is that the market wasn't scared of a recession. There was no impact to earnings. You had the market hitting all time highs as they were cutting rates. So I think we have to take the cue from the market if it starts to sniff out that data is weakening, that data is starting to come in where we need to be cutting earnings stents we don't hit all time highs in markets, that's when you'd say maybe recession risk is actually higher. So what's your conviction is it to basically shift away from the conviction of everybody else that equities are going to go higher and to take the other side. I think it's incredibly important to remain invested even in times of uncertainty, and the way that we do that is focusing on quality, focusing on companies that can block and tackle, which just means that I want to take out the risk that the economy is going to roll over and I'm going to have big earnings downside. But I also don't want to be over levered. I don't want to be overextended on risk having to have the best case scenario in order for my investments to work. So it's still that middle ground. It's worked really well this year, it likely works really well next year as well, as we think we are still in that late cycle environment. What's so interesting to me is the idea of developing a conviction with five percent money market fund trillions out there. Is part of your optimism of that money shifts given disinflation yields? Yeah, you know, it's a really good question. If all the money market funds is truly investible cap not all, but even at the margin that supports the bid. And we do know that investors compared to the twenty twenty two peak are about three percent less allocated to equities than they were at the peak and twenty twenty two looking at the AAII data, so that would suggest that there is still money on the sidelines, that there still is positioning to be drawn back in. And the good news is that there's cash, there's liquidity. In order to do that, we'll have to continue to watch that data because once people get fully invested, this is critical. I don't mean to interrupt, but you've nailed it. Three percent as the delta here from AAI or whatever it is, AARP, whatever. But the answer is if that money shifts and makes up the three percent difference, what does that do in SMP or Dell points, Well, it likely means that we can continue the rally, But then it calls into question the durability of the rally. Do we test the twenty twenty two high, do we break through it with gusto and really have the kind of rally that we saw coming out of time like twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen, or instead, do we have this sideways chop that looks a lot more like what we experienced in the seventies or even in the two thousands. And it's Chris Harvey is talking about did you just request a down forecast? I did, just busting this. You have a down forecast? Absolutely not. I'm sorry. That was beautiful. Do you want to explain why you don't have a down forecast because it's a price weighted index? Thank you, Cameron Tak Is that enough? Jar Denney SPX five thousands, forty one thousand on the show clip that? I mean, honestly, you guys just gonnatrol each other all morning beautiful. And I said, the perfect ending to this exchange was very good. You know it was great. It was very good. Camera. Thank you. It's going to see it. Cameron Dawson, I knew ittch Wealth, welcome back anytime. I'm going to play this off my book of the year years ago, Ken rog I was very courageous, The Curse of Cash. He's writing about where we are with digital currencies, what the Bank of International Settlements in Geneva thinks, what Central Bank says. He was at the New York Fed. Thanks. Bill Dudley joins us right now writing an important column on c B d C central bank digital currencies, Bill Dudley, very valuable and thought provoking. This morning, we just saw criminal trials, guilty verdicts, maybe appeals involved. But are we getting away from the presumed criminality, the punishment, the secrecy that Ken Rogoff had the courage to talk about. Well, I think that the crypto space is in disarray right now, and the real question now is our central banks around the world going to introduce central bank digital currencies to sort of take up that slack. I think that's going to happen, probably going to be more evolutionary than revolutionary, because it depends on what payment system that you're starting with. I think we're central bank digital currencies could play a very very important role. This is highlighted a new paper that we put out by the brent Witz Committee is really on cross border payments. We had a system of central bank digital currencies where the interfaces were harmonized, you could probably execute payments on a cross border basis at a fraction of the cost. Today, for a lot of migrant workers when they're sending their payments abroad, it costs over five percent of the value of the payment just to execute the trade. It's very slow. So we can certainly do a lot better than than we're doing right now now in this process. The FIT is very far far behind in terms of their work on central bank digital currencies, and in the US there's a quite a bit of skepticism about the need for central bank digital currencies. Why is this work continue? Well, that's so hard of the matter. I'm going to go to Raphael Our owns a high ground on this at BIS. He's documented the incredible friction of transactions in the real world. We all thought we'd be trading bitcoin and you know, John would be down at Selene trading bitcoin for a sweater, but the answers were not. We could really get down to where this is efficacious for central banks. We could really squeeze us down to where there's no transactional friction. Well, that'll obviously always give a little bit of transactional friction, but we can do a lot better than we're doing right now. I mean, in central bank digital currencies should be a pretty significant improvement over cash. I'll be just the safest cash, but in terms of the fault risk, because you'll be guaranteed by the sovereign nation, but you don't have worries about storage. You can transact with digital cash across long distances, So to me, it's like cash plus it's superior to cache and something that we the US should start to innovate on. There's a concern bill that as you disintermediate banks, essentially those agents that really capitalize from those frictions that exist, that some of the functioning of markets that traditionally has supported things like treasuries starts to ebb away. How concerned are you as you start to adopt new, less friction build methods and as capital markets slow in the wake of rate hikes, how much does that really disintermediate banks that really are still essential for the functioning of the treasury market. It really depends on central bank digital currency design, and I think there you want to have a two tier system where the banks continue to own the customer relationships. Central banks don't want to have customer relationships with hundreds of millions of households, so they should hand that off to the banking system. The second thing you want to do is make sure that the central bank digital currency doesn't pay interest. If it doesn't pay interest, it's basically going to be used for payments, not for investment, So that preserves the role of the central of commercial banks as intermediaries. So I think if you do those two things essentially protect that the commercial banking system is providing financial intermediation services, but the central bank helps provide a better payments medium. The reason why I ask is on a broader sense away from digital currencies, is there is increasing concern about how much of the risk taking activity and how much, frankly, of financial market functioning has moved outside of the highly regulated banks into the private sector. Earlier this morning, UBAS chair Clem Kelliher came out warning again that there's a bubble in private markets and that there's risks building there as an increasing amount of lending moved to that area. Are you concerned about that? Do you think that there is this sort of situation forming on the heels of rate hikes, on the heels of the more tightly regulated banks that deserves greater scrutiny. Absolutely? I think this notion that all we need to do to fix the problems that we saw in March of twenty twenty in the banking system is to appile a lot higher capal requirements on the largest banks. I think that's misguided. Increase the cabal requirements on the biggest banks, You're just going to push activity out into the non regulated banking sector, and that's going to make the financial system less secure, more unstable than the current regime. So I think we need to think really hard about what were the problems in March twenty twenty and how to address them. Bill, thanks for catching out with us. Give us an your view on that built outly the former New York Fed President Lie So this is joy. Why don't you bring in mister Mayo here because he's all AI in bankings, which makes me very happy actually because Thanksgiving dinners several of them. All of the discussion was about artificial intelligence. Mike Mayo focused on artificial intelligence as well, saying that it's not just going to be in big tech, it's also going to be in banks that you need to have AI talent at the financial institution, saying the marriage of banks with tech, including AI, is a long term positive that can help the industry trend toward record efficiency. Joining us now is the one and only Michael Mayo, Mike, thank you so much for being with us. So tell us just how much banks could benefit at a time where people have written them off as utilities that are overspending and are not going to make big returns. Well, if you're a bank and don't have an AI strategy, then you don't have a strategy because if the bank across the street has calculators or spreadsheets or Bloomberg terminals, yes, and you don't have those, then how are you going to compete? So AI is here to stay. The marriage of banks and tech has been a good one. It's stalled recently, but I think AI can rekindle that relationship by taking the productivity benefits which have been revenues per employee have improved by one third over the last decade. So banks and tech have been working, but I think AI can take that to another level. Is it a kind of thing where there'll be a few winners you mentioned Golias Mike Mayo in your noe is a kind of thing where four or five will win and the rest lose? Or can it actually be a benefit distributed across the industry? Well, I think most jobs at banks will be impacted. I mean, think of what I do. I'm an analyst, and analysis can be improved by this extra tool called a Now I do think there will always be a human in the loop for most cases. In other words, to prepare for your show today, Lisa and Tom, I went to chat GPT and said, what should I say in one sentence about this? And they said it's a revolution that will enable productivity, savings and better customer service. Well that's an improval. Well that's an improved starting point. But you know it's partly wrong. First, I'm not sure it's a revolution, especially at banks. It tends to be more of an evolution, and simply by enabling that potential doesn't mean that becomes a reality. And you've seen false starts cloud, You've had some buyers remorse. Blockchain didn't come out as quickly as expected. You know the dot com bubble one point. Oh, Tom, you remember all these Internet pollows which didn't survive. So I'm positive on the implications of AI, but I also I'm aware of the cast come back even further. George Ball E. F. Hutton. They blew it. They couldn't keep up on technology. This is Lisa. When there were cards with holes in them and a thing called Fortran. The answer is I want to know who the losers are going to be in this. I mean, I know you've got single best buys in all this, but what is the scale of the losers that you see in technology and banking three to five years out. Well, I do think Goliath is winning, and you have this poll by Evident. I know they've had the founders on your show. In fact, they have an all day conference in New York City tomorrow. So JP Morgan is number one front and center right now and their investment in technology are paying off. I'm surprised to see City Group in the top ten for all their issues with their back office, and they have major issues. They're making some efforts with AI. On the other hand, those banks that have not advanced with digitization and the cloud and getting their data together could struggle. And I do wonder about some of these mid sized banks. I mean, do they have the scale to really leverage these solutions and getting talent. Talent is such a big issue and you can't just buy talent off shelf. You can get solutions, but who's actually going to implement those solutions in each business line? So when I'm listening to you, I'm thinking how much are they're going to pay them. I mean, we're talking about open AI paying eight hundred thousand dollars to engineers at just at of a base level. I mean, how much your bank's going to have to pay some of this talent to come to their bank and develop similar solutions that can effectively support and reduce certain headcount in certain areas well. I think what you'll see is you'll see a reduction in headcount and some of those savings plowed back into paying other employees more money, especially AI engineers. They're in serious demand. But if you go to one of the largest banks, you have a whole career path. You can scale these solutions across tens of millions of customers as opposed to going to a smaller bank. I mean, what's your pitch. Now? There are some smaller banks in this evidence survey that performed quite well because they were already ahead on technology. So I think those winning in technology can keep winning more and those that are behind are going to have to have kind of a existential moment here. This can all work if banks have the cash to invest right and that sort of you put a pause on that at a time when potentially there could be a slow down and there could be some kind of reduction in revenues tied to slowing capital markets how much I understand this is a longer term call, but how much do you see a thawing in that kind of environment next year versus a tightening and the screws I mean, this is sort of one of the big disagreements for the backdrop for banks and capital markets activity at a time where yields are still high, but we also are potentially going to start seeing the effects of that. Well, I promise you I will be the first analyst to ask that question or earnings calls. If banks are spending too much money. Banks have no choice because of the headwinds from rates, recession possibility, and regulation. They must get more efficient. So if I'm the CEO of any bank and you're coming to me with the program for AI and want to invest a lot of money, I'd say, great, where are you saving the money to fund that? Nobody cares. All we want to know from Mike Mayo is what to do this year? Twelve months out, twelve months ago now flat on its back. We've had a magnificent seven moonshot right now. Keith briat Indexes twenty five percent above the pandemic low. Is this the year twenty twenty four of the banks? Do you load the boat here on banking? Well, look, the long arc of the benefits of the industry de risking has still yet to play out. Banks didn't get credit through the pandemic. The excuse was the government stimulus. Right now, you had some smaller regional banks fail earlier this year, so it's still delayed. So I still think over the next two to three years you see the benefit of the improved banking industry resiliency play out, and then they aren't as risky as perceived and they re rate at least back to historical And then the bigger question is longer term for the rerate above. Now, it's not immediate tom. I think as you get further out, you get better inflection points when it comes to banks, bread revenues, interest rates, effects, monetizing that capital markets backlog, and more clarity on regulation, which is a very big issues. Still, just real quick, just to follow up on the AI, what is the right AI investment? Is it getting some sort of application to write your reports for you. Is it being able to collate data from your customers to basically prescribe what they're going to do or want. What's the correct way. There's no one size fits off when it comes to AI investments. It's about banks tailoring those AI investments to their use cases that they have that's unique to them. So I find interesting anything related to compliance, fraud, cyber that's where you're seeing some really low hanging fruit early benefits. I think when it comes to some additional automation in the back office. I love what it can do for technology, the idea of Cobyl program change to Python, change to c plus plus, the ability to change archaic code. And by the way, most or almost all large banks still are advertising for Cobyl programmers. Tom, why are you killing me? By my first programming class at punch cards too so fourteen Yeah, what were that? Ancient? Lisa is like, what are they talking about? Single? Best buy ten seconds, JP Morgan and City Group. I had said, Okay, Barbell approach, Barbell approached, Mike Mayol, thank you so much, as WILLI s Fargo, Kati Kaminski, Chief Investments, trying to just to Alpha Simplex joins us now Katie the journey the low on a tenure yield back in twenty twenty in spring fifty basis points the high over the last couple of months through five percent. It paid to be short this bond market. You have been short, but the turnaround in the last couple of months has been brutaled the other way. We've come from five percent down to four forty on a ten year Katie, you've been short. Are you still short? And if you are, why, Yes, still short? But that has to do with different signals having different views. Take a look at the chart for the year. If you look at the year chart, the last month has been a miraculous turnaround relative to where we've come. So we're still way ahead of where we began the year, even prior to what happened in post what happened in the regional banking crisis. And so I think the key question to ask yourself about bonds right now is where are we going next? We have been looking all year for a distant version of the curve, and we got that in October, and the next point is still really uncertain. Are we moving to a steeper curve and if so, which way? Or are we just going to move around and sort of a range until we figure out what's actually happening with the Fed, Katie, Why is it not as simple as taking a look at the economic data coming out showing that it is disappointing much more frequently than it is outperforming, and just sort of leaning into that which the rest of the market seems to be doing. This is a good question, because really what I find the most concerning about the last month is there's been a massive has gone rally on weaker economic data, and that to me is sort of a relief rally from where we've come, because we've been through a lot, particularly in bonds, and so I think most people are buying right now because they're saying, if we see cuts soon, then we know that yields are going to come down. My concern is that it could take a lot longer than people think, pointing out that inflation is still way above target, or at least one percent above target, so we could take a year or so to get there. People are very quick to think that things are over when they take time to actually get through the system. Katie, we're setting up for the new year. I want to go back to the advent of all this, and this is trend based studies, and it's Andrew Low the giant, and you know, working with Elf Simplex and Wells Wilder and Monroe Trout, John Henry and the rest and the Germaine question twenty years ago is the same today. If you look at trend based studies or the complexity of trend based setups, are they elegant right now? Is the math good or are you blind? Well? Turning points are notoriously difficult for trend following. It's because we're not really set up to pick the tops and bottoms of big moves. And what happens in these turning points is we have to figure out using math, where is the next step of the trend. And that's where right now is an inflection point. And I'm looking forward to see if we can actually see that steeper curve. And when we've done historical analysis, what you do see is flat curves or steepening of curves. Is very difficult for trend signals because it's moving. Everything's moving, so it's a stochastic environment and you've got to find a new trend. What is the key attribute for our listeners and viewers to establish the trend? Well, I think the key thing that we always think about as trend followers. We try to blend different views. So right now, the long term view is still cautious. The shorter term view is very very optimistic, And if you combine those two together, you're really sitting in a situation now where we need more data and we need more time to understand where the market's going next. And that's why I think the market is so focused on every data point that comes out, because we're trying to sift through which view is correct. Is there a new trend, have we moved to a new era, a new phase of the of the curve shift, or are we still sort of treading water trying to figure that out. Time is expensive for shorts, and that's something that we have seen play out again and again. How much are some of the short positions being washed out adding to the rally? The stability that we've seen in bond yields over the past week and something that you think maybe can't last, Yes, of course, but I think there's a lot. There's been plenty of shorts this year, especially last year as well. When you think about where we've gone, we definitely need a balance between shorts and longs in this market. We have seen more buying pressure recently, which has been of perhaps causing some deceleration or deleveraging in short positions. But from the trend space, that's a strategy that's much more slow moving than some that you might be discussing. But there are definitely potential that some people are unwinding shorts as well. Hey Kitty, thanks for the update. Still short on this bomb market, Keady Commitski of Alpha Simplex. We take immense pride and I'm talking for the wonderful team we have working twenty four seven of giving you people of experience as we look at the horrific war in the Eastern Mediterranean. We've been advantaged by Norman Rule to say he's a former senior US intelligence official at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, barely describes his public service to the nation. Mister Roland, I want to cut to the chase here my amateur reading of fiction. Is it a ceasefire? Is an intelligence opportunity? Is this ceasefire good for the Israelis to develop intelligence in Gaza? Good morning, and you are absolutely correct. Keep in mind that the Israelis have a variety of means of intelligence. They must ingest a preasent. Prisoner interrogations take quite a while. Laptops have thousands of pages of data that must be reviewed, and you're looking to identify locations of individuals, hiding sites, weapons capacities, movement profiles, so that your troops can then use this as they plan operations when hostilities resume. So this is indeed probably one of the busiest periods for Israeli and partner intelligence. Does their military effort on a longer cease fire? Well, their military right now is supportive of the hostage release. They are concerned obviously that they allowed hostages to be taken and there because of the failure of October seventh, and this period is allowing that innocent Israelis are returning home, but that does not undermine their commitment to eradicating Hamas. Do we understand Have they articulated an endgame? Norman, No, And I think it may be a bit unfair to even think about what an endgame may be. So let me give you a give you an example. We are, in some ways in the easiest period of hostage negotiations. Once the negotiations turned to Israeli soldiers or men, you're going to see Hamas perhaps demand a lot more from the Israelis, the Israelis are unlikely to give, and therefore this could extend the hostage negotiations far longer than Israel could permit. And also we're looking at a period of time when the American presence among the hostages remains significant. Only one American has been released, likely because Hamas wishes to keep American political pressure on Israel. So it may well be that Americans may not be released in the initial period. There's something that you've said that I'd like you to explain to our audience. You said it's important not to confuse procedural hangups with strategic differences on hostage releases. Can you just go through what that actually means, Norman. In the early days of hostage negotiations, you've got issues such as how do you bring hostages to a safe location, exactly which hostage is going to be released, and what that particular group holding the hostages feels about their loss of that influence. And then on the Israeli side, you've got prisoners who have committed in some cases quite horrific acts, and the families of the individuals behind those sentences are going to be unhappy about the release. So you're going to have a process of working through this. But it doesn't mean that each side in this issue isn't interested in the release and the ceasefire. In fact, all sides involved Hamas, Israel, the United States, Qutar, they all benefit from a ceasefire and hostage release. Norman, can you just elaborate on the different factions within the Hamas group that are holding hostages and why they might be reluctant to release certain hostages. How this is sort of playing out in a political sphere over in Gaza. Well, we not only have different factions among the Palestinians, primarily Hamas, palestin Islamis Shihad criminal groups that may have taken hostages and seek to sell them to their own Palestinian partners, but we also have a communications problem. Imagine if you are these various groups and you know the Israelis are looking for your communications and looking for your movements, how do you exchange the data and conduct those intra Palestinian negotiations just to get that process going. It's a very complicated situation. What do you expect Tony Blinken to do on his latest tour of the region. We're always going to push for some sort of continued pressure on Hamas to release not only hostages, but to think about how they would consider a day after event. There's been very little actual crystallization of what day after means. You may have anything from an international police presence to Hamas thinking it can still survive because it will retain hostages for a period of time. And these talks are ongoing among all the various partners, and perhaps most important here are going to be the Saudist because they're leading such a large portion of the Islamic the Islamic world in Israel. It's really to make sure that he has a sense of where the coalition is in terms of resumption of hostilities and how Natanya, who is handling the various hostage debates within his own government. Norman role Aaron David Miller with us yesterday was just brilliant, and how this is not nineteen sixty seven, if that is true, and if there's not going to be a Camp David visit, a Camp David accord. Whatever our memory is of normal diplomatic ties, what do you presume will be the administration's approach to finding some kind of accord. Where are we a year from now, two years from now? Very difficult to think forward. First, you've got to identify which partners are going to show up for a camp David's style agreement meeting. I mean, think about it. Will Benjamin Netanyahu survive in his current political situation? It's stoutful. Who is going to be the leader of the Palestinians? Abu Mazen Mahammuda Bass, the head of the Palestine Authority is eighty eight years old. There will be no hamas presidents at the table. So who do you bring to the table that those entities don't actually exist at present? That's a massive question. Norman has tried to get your for you, it always says no one. Roll of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern. I'm Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen and this is Bloomberg,See 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Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Chief US Economist, says the nearly two-year high in US continuing jobless claims represents a needed softening in the labor market. Bill Dudley, former New York Fed President & Bloomberg Opinion columnist, says there needs to be significant changes to the treasury market in order to restore strength. Chuck Grom, Gordon Haskett Senior Retail Analyst, says Walmart, Target and Burberry's earnings indicate pressure on the entire retail sector. Michael Hirson, 22V Head of China Research, analyzes President Biden's meeting with Xi Jinping and its implications for both countries. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance    Full Transcript:  This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best an economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Joining us now, we're thrilled to every usually for big events, So today's a big event. It's always a big event. When Ellen Zenner joins his chief US economist, Morgan Stanley Ellen on claims, I go to the four week moving average. How do you interpret claims with this two hundred thirty one thousand statistic? And can you say there's finally a vector in place of higher claims more pain. So I hope that there's a higher vector in place. I disagree that higher claims will be more pain. We're coming off of extraordinarily low levels. As you said, we look at the four week moving average to smooth through volatility, and it has been lifting, but it is still very low. And so what does that tell me? Something that Mike and Lisa alluded to as well, normalization slowing in normalization, good god man, that's what we've been needing, and I don't see this accelerating at an extreme pace. I've been on the road the last few days in several states meeting with corporate clients. They are finally seeing some relief in terms of how tight the labor market has been in terms of the availability of the kinds of employees that they need. We're seeing not just claims rising a bit here, but I focus on continuing claims. People that have been losing their jobs are staying unemployed for a bit longer, and that's been rising since October, so it's getting more difficult to just get re employed right away. This is the kind of softness in the labor market that we have needed, and of course it takes pressure off the FED to raise rates again. Right going on extended hold, what is the distance between normalization and an outright downturn? So well, the difference is jobs stay positive, So normalization is you've got more supply coming back into the labor market, so you see participation rates rising, which we have. That is what puts upward pressure on the unemployment rate. And we've been seeing that, and if people are having taken longer to be able to get re employed, then that should produce further upward pressure on the unemployment rate. But that just takes pressure off the labor market, pressure off of businesses, off of margins. You see wages grow more slowly, and you'll see confidence build among FED policy makers that they have done enough here. I don't think we're anywhere near getting to negative job gains. I think negative jobs would mean that companies have stopped hiring. What I hear is that they're doing selective hiring, that they stop hiring, and that they start firing, and I mean firing up broadly. And that's just not what we're seeing. But I'm ever watchful, especially reading earnings transcripts, to see if that's something that's around the around the corner. I'm glad you mentioned earnings because we were talking about Walmart, and I understand their idiosyncrasies here, but they talked about potentially seeing outright deflation over the next year with consumers clearly pushing back. You do see margin pressure, you do see a market deterioration and consumer appetite over the past ninety days. How concerning is that to you about the nonlinearity of where things could be. So, Lisa, we put out a consumer survey that goes out into the field every two weeks, and one of the biggest areas of trade down that households have been doing is within stores themselves, say, going from a high priced branded good to the generic good within the store. And that means that those retailers are going to see some deflation. And we've been hearing from businesses that input costs are falling, but prices that they're charged or falling faster. And that's important because we all started to think we the economics community at large, not myself though an exception, started to think that households just have unlimited price tolerance, and that is not the case. Finances start to slow, we run through that excess savings, and you will start to trade down. The lower income groups that Walmart serves are the groups that have been standing the greatest pressure. Look at delinquency rates for the lowest income groups on credit cards on auto loans, that points to stress. Ellen Molly Smith and Alice Atkins for Bloomberg made a big splash the other day using your research, the Morgan Stanley View and the key distinction is a four point three percent unemployment rate. I hereby dubb at the Zentner four point three percent statistic. How do we get to a four point three percent unemployment rate that radically shifts Fed policy? I'm not expecting right close them from the Fed. The unemployment rate at four point three percent, we think is a soft landing unemployment rate in that it is driven by slower job gains and higher labor force participation. Now I understand that is a beautiful scenario for the FED. And we have them cutting next year by one hundred basis points because of normalization. That's very different than cutting because the FED thinks there's a recession. If the FED thinks that there's recession, they're starting big and they're doing a lot, and that's very different than the normalization scenario. And then overlay with that, what we're hearing Julia Coronatto leading the way on this, doctor Coronado suggesting productivity is underestimated. Do you believe that we have an underestimation of the efficiency of the American economy and that gets you to a benevolent four point three percent unemployment rate? Yees, So I do think that productivity is being underestimated. I would add, though, that productivity has not been well estimated, and so you'd have to say, well, it's being estimated you worse than before. And I'm not sure we can say that, but I think there are a lot of new ways that productivity exhibits itself in the economy that we're just not able to capture. Government data is not able to capture. But absolutely, if productivity is higher, then you can withstand higher wage growth without it being inflationary. It gives the FED more runway because it keeps it lid on inflation. And so it's really it lifts all boats. It's productivity and infrastructure or what economists go to sleep at night dreaming about, Tom, which is the reason why I think people are sort of hopeful that we're going to get that and we're going to create this soft landing and avoid something more challenging. I guess to wrap it all up, we've been talking all morning about the potential for deflation. Tom was talking about how difficult that is for any economy to handle. This was the word that Walmart used. But you're talking about normallyation. How concerned would you be to see some sort of material deflation, not disinflation. Deflation, and certain good sectors that we have been seeing on the margins over the past couple of months. Yeah, so, Lisa, good sectors. I'm not worried about it at all. We've goods prices in the US have been in deflation for a decade leading up to COVID. That's normal, right, we were importing a lot of deflation, but that's externally determined. I would be very, very concerned about a deflation scenario in the US for services, for domestically determined prices. For US to get to that broadly, you're talking about an extraordinary downturn on the magnitude of the financial crisis in two thousand and eight that would get that kind of price declines, declines in the level of prices instead. I think deceleration is in train. I think it's going to be faster than the FED is expecting. And I think I've been really pleased, and I think they should be pleased too with the progress that we see. The Newtonian mechanics of Ellen Zentner, of Morgan Stanley there and the dynamics of price change. Ellen, thank you so much for the brief. William Dudley joins us now former New York Fed president of Bloomberg opinion columnist Bill Ewan, I'm going to suggest Professor williams now holding Court in the former Dudley chair, have a unique perspective on our flows, our liquidity, our trust Sitting at the New York Fed. What is the confidence or trust deterioration you've observed. I think there is a complete trust in the New York Fed because that the Fed basically understands the plumbing of the financial system and understands what needs to be done to make sure that plumbing works always, even under times is pressed. One area of vulnerability where the Fed and the treasure you're looking at right now is the treasure market itself, because the buying of treasury borrowing has gone up dramatically and the capacity of the primary dealers to take on that uh that burden has diminished because of all the regulation on capital and leverage. So there do need to be some significant changes, I think, to the treasury market to make it more strong and resilient. And what I propose is a couple of things. One central characteringum of treasuries, so they all go through a central current party, so your risk is just to the central current party. Allows you to net out a lot of bilateral risk to a single risk to one uh end person. Second, increase the leverage the haircuts a bit so that they don't need to be increased during time to stress. Right now, you have low haircuts, and then there's there's stress, and the haircuts go up, which force people to sell. And the last thing which Mike was talking about is opening up the fens repo facility more broadly, making it so that people can take treasures and turn them into cash at any time. And if they know that, then they don't actually have to sell the treasures, you know, in anticipation of a problem. They can wait to see if they actually need the care bill if none of that gets done. Do you think the action we've seen and what you expect compromises the QT program coming out of the FED. No, I don't think so. I mean, I think the QT program basically is on autopilot as long as there isn't a lot of market disruptions. So if the market performs reasonably well, then QT keeps going. Only if we have the kind of events like we had in September twenty nineteen or market twenty twenty, we can see QT is suspended because if the market isn't working right, the last thing the Fed wants to do is done more securities in the marketplace. What's as take here, Bill, If there isn't this sort of fix that you propose or this three pronged proposal, how much are we seeing what sort of the new normal looks like with bouncing around twenty basis points on a ten year yield from day to day versus something more significant that creates a real crisis in the world's deepest and most liquid market. I think the volatility we've seen this year is not a treasure market function problem. I think the volatility we've seen this year is people trying to figure out what what's the trajectory of short term rates over the next six to twelve months, and there's been lots of changes in view as the economic data has come out. I think the problem is more when all sudden people want it dump treasuries and there's not enough capacity on their side to absorb that. That has happened a few times, and obviously it needs it needs a catalyst, and it's hard to predict what that catalyst could be, But what I want is a treasury market that can handle those kind of shocks if and when they occur. Are you saying that right now there is an inability. What do you expect will happen if there is some sort of catalyst, Well, if there's sometimes are cast One of the problems we allowed the treasury trading is handled by algorithmic traders who basically don't really provide long term liquity to the market. They just provide liquidity for a microsecond and then they move it security off to someone else, and when things get scary, they completely withdraw from the market, and then the market is really now then has to go to the primary dealer community. But the primary dealer commun has an allocated capital to this business because most of the time they're actually not doing it, so there's no one there sort of an extremist provide balance sheet capacity to sort of come the market. And that's one reason why you'd like to have the ability to take your treasury security to the FED and turn them into cash without actually having to sell them. So the Treasury is only one the FED is the only one that has a balance sheet that is actually elastic, So why not make it clear that that elastic balance sheet available on an ex anti basis as opposed to only exposts after the vice she had the problem? Bill, how does our data dependency look next year? I think we've had a celebration of disinflation in place. Is the nature or character of the Fed's data dependency different now and forward? Well, I think they're more confident that they've moved monetary policy to a restrictive level and it's actually working to bring down inflation. But we still don't know a lot of things. We don't really know if how tight monetary policy is. We don't know how long it's going to take to get inflation down to two percent. So I think the degree of uncertainty risk is a lot less less today than it was, say, eighteen months ago, when the Fed started the tightening process. But there's still a lot of uncertainty about how strong the economics can being, whether the Fed is done. What a roller coaster write this bond market has been on over the last few months, Bell, what if for? To catch up with you? SA always is former New York Fed President Bill Dutley. There an interesting thought provoking piece from Bill on the future of this treasury market. We talked to a lot of experts on this, and this is what you get if you get a double degree at the you claimed holy Cross, the College of the Holy Cross, and economics in accounting, the hyper detail, mathematics, ratios, the financial analysis of retail that Chuck Rahm has acclaimed for. He's a Gordon Haskett. I'm not going to mince words. We protect the copyright of all of our guests. Get his brilliance from Gordon A Hausket. How do you go and outperform on Walmart with a thirty pe? Explain why Walmart has a pe like a luxury goods pervader. And Walmart's been executing lawlessly for several quarters and even maybe the past couple of years, and the business mixshift and the gross market visibility. I mean, there's never been a time in the twenty years I've covered Walmart where I've been this bullish on the long term outlook. Clearly today it's interesting. It's a little bit about positioning. You guys talked in your remarks about valuation. That's a factor if you really dig it underneath the covers here, it's really less about the top line. And I think less about the back half of October commentary that the CFO recently made. I think it's more about the margin flow through that was disappointing. The US margins were disappointing. So when you have a stock at an all time high, at very rich valuations and you get a little bit but disconnect, you get this negative reaction. I think the stock will come back throughout the day and over the next couple of weeks, but today could be difficult for the stock. Can they compete with Amazon or Darra I never said this before, Chuck Grum, But can they beat Amazon? I don't know if they can beat Amazon, but they can definitely compete. And I think the physical assets of their four thousand plus stores in the country really provide them with being really close and being able to connect with their customers. So Walmart plus there's a lot of opportunity there. So can they beat Probably not, but can they compete one hundred percent? Chuck, you said that margins disappointed, and that's really interesting At a time where people are wondering when are consumers is going to start pushing back on price increases? Is this an indication that Walmart is seeing that that time is now and then order for them to compete, they've got to take a hit on the margins. Well, I think almost uniformly, you know, consumers are pushing back on price and that's why prices are coming down almost across the board. And can we cover Home Depot, we cover TJ, we cover you know Hard, you know, Macy's, Walmart, They're all talking about prices starting to flatten out and retreat. I think the US margins were softer because of the GLP influence on the on the margins because of the drug. It's a lower margin product. It was a higher sales in here in the quarter. And when you have discretionary sales be softer, those are higher margin categories for Walmart. So it's really a mixed factor. It looks like obviously the calls at eight o'clock and the callbacks are later in the day, so we'll get more clarity later in the day. But looking at what it looks like now, I think it's more of a mixed factor. You know, we were talking earlier about what's good news or bad news for the broader economy. When Walmart does headly or well in terms of which consumers are shopping, there is there any read through based on the earnings that we've gotten from retailers about whether we're seeing a division between haves and have nots, about whether we are seeing any broader trends in terms of how the consumer is evolving, Which areas are going to be bright spots and which won't. That's a great question. I think it's really too early to tell. I mean, you look at Walmart's numbers, they're up, you know, comp up five, Target yesterday down five. You know, you look at Macy's down six or seven. Here, it looks pretty uniform. I think there's pressures across the board. It's not really like the high end doing well. You guys talked about Berbery earlier. We'll get more color from Nordstrom next week. I think it's pretty uniform across the board. And you know, we've been talking about our consumer surveys being weak, traffic being weak. Today's numbers and the reactions here over the past forty eight hours have really nothing to do with the top line. The top line and the sales are pretty much in line with where people thought. It's a positioning and it's the margin flow throughs for certain companies. What's the future of Nordstrom's the family dynamic and also the attempt to be luxury. I guess what I is an amateur, I'd say is accessible luxury. Is nord Strum a sleeper for five years out? I think it's a great concept. I think the rack has really been their achilles heel over the past several years. So if they could get the rack fix. I think the fact that they all have a huge presence of full line stores across the country is actually a tremendous asset piece of v Coals or Macy's, which have got hundreds of stores. So I think it's I think it's a viable concept. They need to get the rack fixed, and that's what people and investors have been waiting for. Chuck, what's the rack? It's a ro off price division. And what do you mean by fixed? What's wrong with it? Well, when you look at you know, you look at TJ and Ross comping up, you know, load of mid single digits, and you see the rack comping down. It's just it's been broken. I mean it's their business hasn't been good. It seems like there's been some cannibalization across the store base. We're not exactly. Sure, there's been some merchandise issues. They've tried to price up when when the consumer wanted to be priced down. But yeah, the North From viable for sure. But the rack division, the off price division, I'm sorry, we're not clarifying earlier. Is really the No, It's okay now, I know, I'm just just for people who are trying to follow. Have you noticed, Chuck that the off rack the rack is actually close to the Nord from stores. Have you noticed that, which is kind of odd. Yeah, I mean I could tell you my wife, We'll tend to go to the rack now a lot more than a bowl line. So that's what I'm talking about. The cannibalization factor of that is probably maybe the issue here, and maybe they need to close more rack stores, but you know, ironically, they're trying to grow more right now. So we're old rated, we're kind of we're kind of perplexed on some of the strategies there. For the time being, it's trying to be TJX and knowst them at the same time with the same grand it's hot to do, Chuck, Thank you, Chuck Goldenske, thank you mate. Right now and these important meets we're making jokes about it. Come on, this is important. Michael Hurston joins and I had a China research a twenty two v AT research. Michael, thank you so much for briefing us this morning. What did you What was the unexpected that you saw last night? Besides a dictator faux pap by the president late? What was the unexpected of the meeting? Nothing too unexpected, frank, which I think is good. Maybe the Chinese readout perhaps was a bit more positive than I was expecting, and that really reflects what has been a bit of a excuse me, a recalibration in China's official tone towards the US over the last few weeks. But other than that, I would say, no big surprises, Okay, no big surprise is great. What's next? When's the next meeting? Is the President travel to China to make it too well? I think that's actually a really important point, Tom, because this is basically the last high profile meeting that the two leaders are going to have before the next US presidential election. So this kind of sets the parameters for the next year, and those parameters really are trying to find stability, not allowing a crisis to take place over something like Timewan and then just making incremental progress on some of the key issues in the relationship. But if you think about it, the closer we got to the US presidential election, the harder it will be for Biden to do anything that's seen as being soft on China. And of course, why would chi Jinpang make concessions to the US when he doesn't know who the next president will be. So I think that's where we are. That's why this was kind of an important window for the two leaders to meet. Did the dictator comment mean anything to you? Not really. I don't want to dismiss it entirely. I think it probably was perhaps not the positive tone to go out on, But I think in the grand scheme, given how much work both sides did to try to make this meeting happen, I don't think it's going to color too much on the Chinese side. What did you make of the meetings that Xijimpang had with US executives apples, Tim Cook for example, a whole host of others, and then a private meeting with Elon Musk. What's your takeaway of how different the business view on China is from the US government's view on that country. I think there are a few very prominent US firms that have this special position in China where and that would put Apple and Tesla very much as the two bell Weathers in that category. They have managed this straddle between the US and China. It's not an easy straddle on either side, but they're kind of a special category. If you look at the broader set of US firms in China, it's really a mix between those who feel like they have a decent market in China and those who are really upset about China's policies. And so I would put Tesla and Apple in this kind of special category, and so it's no surprise that they got some special attention from CHICHIPI do you have a sense of who needs who more? Of whether Tesla and Apple need China more than China needs them and the jobs that they provide. It's an interesting question. I would say for the companies they need app they need China more. But if we're talking about Apple and Tesla, they are very important bell Weathers for how the business community looks at the playing field in China, and not just the US business community, that's Europeans, Japanese, you know, global companies in China, which is why I think Beijing actually has to tread very carefully with things like, for example, potential retaliation against Apple. So yeah, the companies need China work, but these are quite important that Chi Jinping looks to try to revive confidence in China's economy and China's investment environment. Michael, A question we haven't brought up yet. I've been remiss on this is Hong Kong. Is Hong Kong going to evolve into something that we don't see right now? Is there a Hearson Hong Kong out there that's going to be different. I think Hong Kong, really, and I was just there last week, is in this somewhat gradual transition from a global hub to really more of a pure capital gateway to China and is increasing becoming more of a Chinese city. That is still an interesting position for it to play. And a number of China watchers that I've had discussions with recently have made the point that they think Hong Kong is going to remain an interesting city as the political environment in China states very tight and in some cases even titans further so, Hong Kong losing its status as a global financial center, but still quite an important city in the context of in particular context of China. So what's the alternative for those people whining and dining with mister g last night. What city do they go to? I think if we're talking about the financial sector, you know, it's a number of places. Singapore obviously has has gained a step, even Tokyo has become more important as a regional financial center. If we're talking about the multinationals there, you know, it's wherever they can get capacity and wherever they can get the logistics right. So in many cases is you know, you mentioned Vietnam earlier, Vietnam, Fishary, but it's also Mexico. It's a lot of countries. Michael, we got to leave you that. Thanks for Aminus, Michael Hesson that have twenty two vave research. Thank you very much. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Easter. I'm Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is BloombergSee 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Bloomberg Opinion Columnist and former NY Fed President William C Dudley speaks on the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged with Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Lisa AbramowiczSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former NY Fed President &  Bloomberg Opinion Columnist Bill Dudley talks about the state of the US economy and whether he thinks the Fed will raise rates at their next meeting. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bob Michele, JPMorgan Asset Management CIO & Global Head of Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities says the Fed may have to tip the economy into recession before cutting rates. Bill Dudley, Former New York Fed President & Bloomberg Opinion Columnist criticizes the Fed's proposal to increase capital requirements for the biggest banks. Greg Boutle, BNP Paribas, US Head Of Equity And Derivative Strategy explains why he ditched his call for an 11% drop in the S&P this year. Francisco Blanch, BofA Global Research Head of Global Commodities & Derivatives Research says he sees Brent Crude at $90 next year. Bhakti Hansoti, Johns Hopkins University Associate Professor of Emergency says Covid is similar to the flu.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Joseph Tracy, former senior adviser to Fed presidents Robert Kaplan and Bill Dudley, says it will most likely take a mild recession to rein in inflation.

Bill Dudley, Fmr. NY Fed President & Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says the latest US CPI data won't change the Fed's trajectory in the July meeting. Michael Gapen, BofA Securities Head of US Economics, sees nominal GDP growth remaining healthy until 2025. Megan Horneman, Verdence Capital Advisors Chief Investment Officer, says the Fed can't take their foot off the pedal yet. Michael Darda, MKM Partners Chief Economist & Market Strategist, discusses the US June CPI print.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bill Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, Bloomberg Economics Senior Advisor & Former NY Fed President, says the Fed's usage of a "skip" versus a "pause" is to temper market expectations that they are "finished." Heidi Crebo-Rediker, Former US State Department Chief Economist, CFR Senior Fellow & International Capital Strategies Partner, discusses China's weak data. Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Chief International Strategist, says a mild recession would be a soft landing scenario. Chuck Grom, Gordon Haskett Senior Retail Analyst, discusses Macy's earnings.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bill Dudley, Former NY Fed President, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist & Bloomberg Economics Senior Adviser, says its hard to see 2% inflation with the labor market this tight and wages this high. Mario Gabelli, Gabelli Funds Co-CIO, explains exactly where he would put money to work amid all the market uncertainties. Rep French Hill, (R) Arkansas, says Treasury Secretary Yellen could "step in right now" and help develop a debt ceiling deal that would "pass overwhelmingly" and be signed into law before deadline. Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs Chief Global Equity Strategist, sees the market environment ripe for nuanced and diversified investors. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Economic Policy Research Director, discusses debt-limit talks between Biden, McCarthy. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bill Dudley, former Federal Reserve Bank of New York President and Jeffrey Rosenberg, BlackRock Financial Managing Director, discuss the latest rate decision and Chair Powell's news conference. They speak with Tom Keene, Jon Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's a high stakes balancing act for the Federal Reserve as policymakers weigh their next move in the battle to tame inflation. Will they hold back from more rate rises because of the stress in the banking sector? Will they follow the European Central Bank's footsteps and raise rates by half a percentage point? Or will they go with a more modest quarter-point hike? Joining the show to discuss is Bill Dudley, who served as president of the New York Federal Reserve from 2009 to 2018.To learn more about how CNN protects listener privacy, visit cnn.com/privacy

Bill Dudley

Bill Dudley, Former New York Fed President, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist & Bloomberg Economics Senior Advisor, says the Fed's game plan is to go to restrictive and keep it there for as long as it takes. Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Chief US Economist, says we are a 'ways away' from 2% inflation. Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management CIO, says the US equity market is fighting the Fed. Michael Nathanson, SVB MoffettNathanson Senior Research Analyst, previews Disney earnings. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bill Dudley, former President and CEO of the NY Federal Reserve bank, joins the show to talk about what really happens inside the Fed and the FOMC ahead of key meetings on interest rates, and what to expect at the next two key meetings. Plus, global stock markets are making a head-spinning comeback as countries facing steep economic downturns are delivering huge equity returns. And, a record amount of cash is sitting in cash. We look at where it may flow next. LINKS FOR SHOW NOTES www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vix.asp https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_012023.pdf www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/dilutivestock.asp https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0cAGOgJH3c https://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/orgchart/dudley.html https://gceps.princeton.edu/william-c-dudley/ https://www.abebooks.com/signed/Economics-Introductory-Analysis-Samuelson-Paul-McGraw-Hill/30058256356/bd

James Gorman, Morgan Stanley CEO, says his three potential successors are already in place. Bill Dudley, Former New York Fed President & Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, explains why he thinks the US should do away with the debt ceiling. Greg Boutle, BNP Paribas US Head of Equity and Derivative Strategy, is not looking for a v-shaped recovery. Alicia Levine, Bank of NY Mellon Head of Equities & Capital Markets Advisor, says the market hasn't priced in a soft landing. Jessica Reif Ehrlich, BofA Securities Media & Entertainment Analyst , says everybody is losing a lot of money in the streaming wars, with the exception of Netflix. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group Founder & President, outlines Eurasia Group's top risks for 2023. Bill Dudley, Former New York Fed President, says if we have a recession, it will be a Fed-induced recession. Kevin Rudd, Former Australia Prime Minister, says China's covid u-turn raises questions. Carl Bildt, Former Prime Minster of Sweden, says Vladimir Putin is increasingly alone. Marietje Schaake, Former European Parliament Member, says control over technology is a political choice. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

December 27, 2022 BILL DUDLEY, pastor of Union Church of South Foxboro, MA & featured survivor of child sexual abuse in the documentary, "Boy Scout's Honor", who will address: "A PASTOR WHO AS a CHILD WAS a DRIVE-BY VICTIM of a MAJOR SEXUAL PREDATOR of CHILDREN in the BOY SCOUTS SPEAKS OUT!" with special co-host Dr. LATAYNE C. SCOTT, a former Mormon & convert to Christianity & the author of of many books, including, "Protecting Your Child From Predators" & "Talking With Teens About Sexuality"   Subscribe: iTunes  TuneIn Android RSS Feed Listen:

Bill Dudley, Former New York Fed President & Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, explains why he isn't expecting a recession quite yet. Savita Subramanian, Bank of America Securities Head of US Equity & Quantitative Strategy, expects index funds to underperform active management. Matt Brill, Invesco Head of US Investment Grade & Senior Portfolio Manager, says a fixed income readjustment has taken place. Terry Haines, Pangaea Policy Founder, thinks it is likely that Joe Biden runs for president again in 2024. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, testifying before Congress on Wednesday, said the central bank is “strongly committed” to bringing down inflation and can do so with its monetary policy tools. He also acknowledged that engineering a “soft landing” will be “very challenging.” Indeed, Bill Dudley, a former Fed governor, wrote today that “a recession is inevitable within the next 12 to 18 months.” Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined, as President Joe Biden floated a three-month federal gasoline tax holiday. The three major U.S. indexes held modest gains approaching the closing bell, as investors saw room in Powell's words for a sooner-than-expected dovish turn. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision's Maggie Lake to talk about the effort to control inflation without constraining growth and the market's reaction to Powell's testimony. We also hear from Tian Yang about the issue of the Fed's credibility. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Ndy8Eh. And be on the lookout for Thursday's release of the full Expert View session featuring Tian Yang. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

(5/16/22) This is a bonus airing of a previously broadcast show with Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz Inflation is running hotter than the Fed would like; the major indexes are masking the reality of underlying stocks' plight; dealing with margin debt is playing a role in market's performance; 4 out of 8 CPI sectors were elevated in April--oddly, Energy was not one of them. Month/Month and Year/Year comparisons actually showed a decline; former Fed'er Bill Dudley continues to call out the FOMC for its "handling" of the economy; the NFIB survey is at it's lowest ebb ever. No one is immune to emotion; understanding the dynamics between Inflation & Economic Growth; why being long on the dollar has been among the best investments this year; Cryptocurrency: Why it's NOT a fiat currency; Bitcoin is basically an asset, to be traded like at ETF. Luna, Terra, and Stablecoin. 1:52 - Inflation Is Running Hotter than Expected (by the Fed) 13:08 - The Math Behind CPI--It's Impossible to Calculate 29:05 - What Kind of Bear Market Are We In? 43:15 - The Thing About Cryptocurrency Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Cryptocoins Under Pressure," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFyiWgEuxgA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show, "Beware of Recency Bias," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5proelkbBI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=18s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/investor-sentiment-is-so-bearish-its-bullish/ -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Inflation #CPI #Bitcoin #FederalReserve #BuyingTheBottom #Cryptocurrency #Stablecoin #BearMarket #Markets #Money #Investing

(5/12/22) Inflation is running hotter than the Fed would like; the major indexes are masking the reality of underlying stocks' plight; dealing with margin debt is playing a role in market's performance; 4 out of 8 CPI sectors were elevated in April--oddly, Energy was not one of them. Month/Month and Year/Year comparisons actually showed a decline; former Fed'er Bill Dudley continues to call out the FOMC for its "handling" of the economy; the NFIB survey is at it's lowest ebb ever. No one is immune to emotion; understanding the dynamics between Inflation & Economic Growth; why being long on the dollar has been among the best investments this year; Cryptocurrency: Why it's NOT a fiat currency; Bitcoin is basically an asset, to be traded like at ETF. Luna, Terra, and Stablecoin. SEG-1: Inflation Is Running Hotter than Expected (by the Fed) SEG-2: The Math Behind CPI--It's Impossible to Calculate SEG-3: What Kind of Bear Market Are We In? SEG-4: The Thing About Cryptocurrency Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efklhOarIxg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Cryptocoins Under Pressure," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFyiWgEuxgA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show, "Beware of Recency Bias," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5proelkbBI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=18s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/investor-sentiment-is-so-bearish-its-bullish/ -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Inflation #CPI #Bitcoin #FederalReserve #BuyingTheBottom #Cryptocurrency #Stablecoin #BearMarket #Markets #Money #Investing

(5/12/22) Inflation is running hotter than the Fed would like; the major indexes are masking the reality of underlying stocks' plight; dealing with margin debt is playing a role in market's performance; 4 out of 8 CPI sectors were elevated in April--oddly, Energy was not one of them. Month/Month and Year/Year comparisons actually showed a decline; former Fed'er Bill Dudley continues to call out the FOMC for its "handling" of the economy; the NFIB survey is at it's lowest ebb ever. No one is immune to emotion; understanding the dynamics between Inflation & Economic Growth; why being long on the dollar has been among the best investments this year; Cryptocurrency: Why it's NOT a fiat currency; Bitcoin is basically an asset, to be traded like at ETF. Luna, Terra, and Stablecoin. SEG-1: Inflation Is Running Hotter than Expected (by the Fed) SEG-2: The Math Behind CPI--It's Impossible to Calculate SEG-3: What Kind of Bear Market Are We In? SEG-4: The Thing About Cryptocurrency Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efklhOarIxg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Cryptocoins Under Pressure," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFyiWgEuxgA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show, "Beware of Recency Bias," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5proelkbBI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=18s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/investor-sentiment-is-so-bearish-its-bullish/ -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Inflation #CPI #Bitcoin #FederalReserve #BuyingTheBottom #Cryptocurrency #Stablecoin #BearMarket #Markets #Money #Investing

When facing an economic crisis, the Fed's playbook normally skews toward juicing the economy too much rather than too little. After all, in the last go-round in 2007, being too stingy might have helped trigger a depression. Fifteen years later though, America's central bankers face the opposite problem: they need to move fast to cool inflation. That's one of the takeaways from a panel discussion among economists this week, moderated by Stephanie. With U.S. inflation at 7%, the Fed needs to do more than expected, said Bill Dudley, a former president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank and senior adviser to Bloomberg Economics. Dramatically raising interest rates by a half-point in March is worth a look, Dudley said, though unlikely to happen.  Meantime, Bloomberg chief U.S. economist Anna Wong explains why U.S. workers, who've gone missing lately, are likely to rejoin the labor force soon. And, chief global economist Tom Orlik shares why President Xi Jinping isn't about to let China's economy implode while he seeks to cement lifetime power. Finally, on a lighter note, reporter David Hood shares everyone's frustrations with the IRS, where customer service is so bad that some tax professionals are hiring robots to wait in line for them. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.