Pandemic Economics

Economist Brent Neiman recently returned to UChicago from his position as Deputy Undersecretary for International Finance at The US Treasury, only to find his research being used (and misused) in the Trump administration's sweeping new tariff policy. In this episode, Neiman walks us through what the original study actually showed, how it got misinterpreted, and why today's tariff regime marks one of the most consequential trade shifts in decades.

What does Taiwan's precarious position reveal about global power, economic leverage, and the unraveling of diplomatic norms? In this episode, economist Chang-Tai Hsieh returns to unpack Taiwan's tangled political history, its deep economic entanglement with China, and the global stakes of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). From fears of abandonment to the high-stakes semiconductor supply chain, Hsieh explores how Taiwan balances sovereignty, security, and survival in an increasingly transactional world.

What happens when trust in longstanding economic norms starts to break down? In this episode, economist Chang-Tai Hsieh explores the geopolitical and economic consequences of the Trump administration's foreign policy, particularly its approach to China. From China's post-COVID recovery stumbles to a global flood of low-cost EVs, Hsieh unpacks the domestic roots of China's malaise, the surprisingly muted bite of Trump-era tariffs, and why Canada, not China, may be the unexpected target of economic aggression.

More than three years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the war continues to reshape not only geopolitical alliances but also the economies of both countries. In this episode of The Pie, host Tess Vigeland is joined by Konstantin Sonin, John Dewey Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago's Harris School of Public Policy, for a discussion about the economic realities on the ground in Ukraine and Russia, and what might lie ahead.

Crypto's most groundbreaking innovation, permissionless consensus, may also be its greatest vulnerability. In this episode, Chicago Booth economist Eric Budish breaks down the core mechanics of blockchain trust, the staggering energy costs behind mining, and why these systems are fundamentally exposed to majority attacks. Tune in for a deep dive into the economic limits of cryptocurrencies, and what they mean for the future of decentralized finance.

This week, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meets to decide whether to adjust interest rates or keep them steady. What should we expect amid today's economic and political uncertainty? On this episode of The Pie, Randy Kroszner, former Federal Reserve Governor and Norman R. Bobins Professor of Economics at the Booth School of Business, discusses the factors influencing the Fed's decision.

Many of us react to the term “performance review” with a shudder. It's that awkward periodic conversation in which we have to hear feedback, share our assessments of each other, and, occasionally, clash with our colleagues. But do performance reviews have to be like that? We hear from Chicago Booth's Stacey Kole. Does she think that performance reviews are worth saving, and if so, how can they be revamped? -- Today we're bringing you a special episode from our podcast colleagues here at the University of Chicago. Now, if you've ever held a job – almost any job – you've probably experienced the performance evaluation. The annual review. The quarterly goal setting update. That moment when you're asked… or told… how you've been doing in your job. Sometimes it comes as a surprise email over a weekend telling you to list five things you did last week or be fired. But more often, it's part of a regular process in your workplace. So here's the question: how valuable are those moments? What good do they do? Are they worth the time and energy put into them? I have many thoughts – but will keep them to myself and instead hand the microphone over to our friends at the Chicago Booth Review podcast, and my fellow U Chicago podcasthost Hal Weitzman. Here's Hal getting answers to those questions and more – while I go fill out my performance review. Perfection! Five stars! Right?

President Donald Trump has declared a “national energy emergency,” expanding executive powers to shape U.S. energy policy in his second term. What could this mean for the future of American energy? In this episode of The Pie, Ryan Kellogg, the Ralph and Mary Otis Isham Professor and Deputy Dean for Academic Programs at the Harris School of Public Policy, discusses the implications of these federal policy changes. From tariffs on Canadian oil and fuel efficiency standards to tax credits for renewable energy, Kellogg explores how these decisions could shape gas prices, the energy market, and the transition to a green economy.

The debate over health insurance denials intensified last year after the assassination of UnitedHealthcare's CEO. In this episode of The Pie, host Tess Vigeland unpacks the economic forces shaping the US healthcare system with economists from the University of Chicago's Harris School of Public Policy. Josh Gottlieb examines the financial burden of insurance denials, Zarek Brot-Goldberg explores how pre-authorizations influence prescription drug choices, and Maggie Shi reveals how hospitals adjust to oversight by reducing wasteful care.

The automotive industry is at the forefront of a global shift toward sustainability, with nations setting ambitious electric vehicle (EV) adoption targets. But how do government subsidies and industrial policies shape the pace of EV innovation? Hyuk-soo Kwon, Assistant Professor at the Harris School of Public Policy, explores the impact of these policies on EV patenting, revealing how firms with established EV expertise drive rapid advancements through path-dependent innovation.

It's been five years since the COVID-19 pandemic transformed the world. In this episode of The Pie, Matt Notowidigdo, Professor at the Chicago Booth School of Business, explores the pandemic's lasting effects on education, work, and daily life. Join us as we dive into the key economic shifts brought on by COVID-19 and discuss how society can better prepare for future pandemics.

Why do so many students leave college before completing their degree, and how can we help them return? Lesley Turner, Associate Professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, discusses results from a mentoring experiment aimed at boosting undergraduate re-enrollment. Then, she examines the ripple effects of federal policies on graduate student lending, exploring their impact on access, degree attainment, and tuition prices.

Americans attend church less often than they claim. Recessions can improve our health. Pesticides pose hidden dangers. And perceptions of monetary policy shape our reality. In this special year-end episode of The Pie, we dive into some of the most compelling insights and conversations from the past 12 months.

How can policymakers make choices when confronted with uncertainty? What happens when the public loses confidence in scientific authority? Are scientists, including economists, overconfident? Nobel Laureate and UChicago economist Lars Hansen, a leading authority on uncertainty in economic decision-making, tackles these and related questions in this Extra Slice of The Pie, hosted by BFI Executive Director, Ben Krause. The answers will surprise you.

Many low-income countries face a dilemma: keep taxes low and remain unable to build state capacity, or raise taxes and risk political unrest. In this episode of The Pie, Ben Krause, Executive Director of the Becker Friedman Institute for Economics, shares insights from an experiment in Haiti demonstrating how the provision of public goods can boost tax compliance.

A company's value includes not just the goods and services it provides but also the societal costs it imposes. In this episode of The Pie, Lubos Pastor, Charles P. McQuaid Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at Chicago Booth, explores how to integrate the costs of corporate greenhouse gas emissions into traditional measures of corporate performance.

When some US states allowed nurse practitioners to prescribe controlled substances without physician oversight, a serious unintended consequence took hold: Doctors found themselves competing with those nurses for patients. Molly Schnell, BFI Saieh Family Fellow and assistant professor at Northwestern University, along with her colleagues—Janet Currie of Princeton and Anran Li of Cornell—examine the resultant uptick in prescriptions in controlled substances, and the impact on patients.

Professor James Robinson a University Professor with appointments in both UChicago's Harris School of Public Policy as well as the Political Science Department in the Division of Social Sciences is the university's latest faculty member to win the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. On the inaugural episode of “An Extra Slice of The Pie,” Robinson joins Ben Krause, BFI Executive Director and new, semi-regular guest host, to discuss his research and the path to a Nobel. Tune in to learn more about Robinson's early challenges as a young researcher, his major breakthroughs, and his ideas for future work.

Bats are considered a natural pesticide. When they began to die out due to an invasive fungus, farmers turned to chemicals to control pests. The result, as Eyal Frank of the Harris school of Public Policy describes on this episode of The Pie, was skyrocketing infant deaths. Tune in to learn more about the vast ramifications of ecosystem disruptions.

Private equity investors made some $200 billion worth of healthcare acquisitions in 2021, and $1 trillion worth in the 10 years leading up to 2023. In this episode of The Pie, Maggie Shi, professor at the Harris School of Public Policy, discusses how private equity impacts hospitals along multiple dimensions, including patient volumes, revenues, employment, and technology adoption.

When the Soo Line threatened to expand into the Great Northern Railway's territory in 1905, the two companies entered a fierce competition for marketshare in which the they rapidly constructed nearly 500 miles of rail tracks and over 50 new towns. In this episode of The Pie, Chad Syverson, the George C. Tiao Distinguished Service Professor of Economics at the Booth School of Business, explores this unique historical episode, shedding light on how acts of strategic competition, past and present, can affect our social welfare.

The Federal Reserve responded to COVID-era inflation with the fastest increase in the federal funds rate in 40 years. Importantly, the effectiveness of their response depends on how the public perceived it. In this episode of The Pie, Carolin Pflueger, Associate Professor at the Harris School of Public Policy, covers her recent talk to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in which she discussed her research on changing public perceptions and the effectiveness of monetary policy.

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, a landmark piece of tax legislation from the first year of the Trump administration, overhauled the tax code for both individuals and businesses. In this episode of The Pie, Eric Zwick, Professor of Economics and Finance at the UChicago's Booth School of Business, discusses how the overhaul affected the economy, including investment, tax revenue, and wages.

The primary contributor to long-run growth is productivity: A country's ability to raise residents' standards of living depends on its ability to boost workers' output. In this episode of The Pie, Ufuk Akcigit, The Arnold C. Harberger Professor in Economics and the College, describes his research on growth through technological progress.

In the wake of numerous high-profile incidents of police use of force, particularly against Black Americans, law enforcement agencies across the United States are confronting issues of officer misconduct. Whether such misconduct is preventable depends in part on whether it is predictable. In this episode of The Pie, Greg Stoddard, Senior Research Director for the Crime Lab and Education Lab, discusses recent research using administrative data from the Chicago Police Department to predict officers misconduct, before it happens.

The United States is in the midst of a student loan crisis, with over 45 million borrowers owing more than $1.6 trillion in federal dollars. On this episode of The Pie, Constantine Yannelis, Associate Professor of Finance at the Booth School of Business, argues that federal policy is to blame: Decades of regulation and de-regulation have given way to skyrocketing rates of risky borrowing.

How can we incentivize the private and public sectors to develop and deploy solutions to climate change, while accounting for uncertainties? This episode of The Pie covers a panel discussion among professors David Keith of the Department of the Geophysical Sciences at UChicago, Franklin Allen of Imperial College in London, and José Scheinkman of Columbia. Lars Peter Hansen, The David Rockefeller Distinguished Service Professor in Economics, Statistics in the Kenneth C. Griffin Department of Economics and the Booth School of Business and winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics, moderates.

What do location data from roughly 2.1 million cellphones say about religiosity in the United States? In this episode of The Pie, Devin Pope, Professor of Economics and Behavioral Science at the Booth School of Business, paints a new picture of who goes to church, how often, and the other types of activities they do (or don't) partake in.

India's government has big goals for economic growth. The former Governor of the country's Reserve Bank, Raghuram Rajan, argues that India won't be able (and shouldn't try) to follow traditional methods of development. Professor Rajan, now of the the Chicago Booth School of Business, joins The Pie to discuss India's untraveled path to prosperity.

A year-and-a-half after its launch, half of workers report having used ChatGPT on the job. On this episode of The Pie, Anders Humlum, Assistant Professor at the Chicago Booth School of Business, shares results from a recent, large-scale survey profiling the workers who are leading the generative AI curve.

College graduates earn more than those who didn't attend college. Does this mean higher education boosts your income? Or, does college simply attract students who would've earned more anyway? Jack Mountjoy, an economist at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, discusses his research on the returns to higher education.

American cities are overreliant on cars. Policies for reducing this gridlock and pollution range from changing public transit fares or frequencies to introducing new tolls. In this episode of The Pie, Milena Almagro, Assistant Professor of Economics at Chicago Booth, shares her research showing the optimal mix of these policies for cities dealing with transit issues.

A small number of companies are responsible for a substantial amount of the discrimination in today's labor market. Who are they? In this episode of The Pie, Evan Rose, the Neubauer Family Assistant Professor in Economics discusses results from his recent experiment to measure discrimination among the largest employers in the United States.

When the Great Recession hit in 2007, it produced the largest decline in US employment since the Great Depression. It also substantially reduced mortality. In this episode of The Pie, Matt Notowidigdo discusses how economic downturns can lead to valuable health gains that may even offset some of the negative consequences of recessions.

This episode of The Pie features a panel discussion following a talk from Raghuram Rajan, the Katherine Dusak Miller Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at Chicago Booth, about his book "Monetary Policy and Its Unintended Consequences." The panel included Charles Evans, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and was moderated by Randall Kroszner, the Norman R. Bobins Professor of Economics at Chicago Booth and former Governor of the Federal Reserve System.

Anti-democratic sentiment is on the rise across Latin America. This episode of The Pie explores the evolving political and economic landscape of Latin America, highlighting the region's experimentation with democratization and the growing threats of authoritarianism. Luis Martinez, Assistant Professor at the Harris School of Public Policy, discusses how economic reforms and pro-market transformations, despite their benefits, have left segments of the population feeling underrepresented and disillusioned.

Children whose parents have college degrees are often more skilled readers than children whose parents didn't attend college. In this episode of The Pie, Harris Policy Professor Ariel Kalil discusses how certain technologies can help improve literacy skills for disadvantaged children.

Russian-born economist Konstantin Sonin, Professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, joins The Pie to provide an update on the economic impacts of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Sonin discusses how the war affects standards of living and output in both countries, and shares his predictions for what the future holds.

Many mines in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo are controlled by armed groups that frequently engage in conflict with nearby civilians. In this episode of The Pie, Hans Christensen, Professor of Accounting at Chicago Booth, and Samuel Chang, PhD student in Accounting, discuss what happens when mines become certified as conflict-free. Hint: It's not what you might expect.

Most observers are convinced that America's healthcare system needs reform. This episode of The Pie features a discussion among MIT health economist Amy Finkelstein, former commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration and current Duke professor Mark McClellan, and professor at the Harris School Joshua Gottlieb on what these reforms should entail. Michael Greenstone, director of UChicago's Climate and Energy Institute, moderated the conversation.

What happens to humans when vultures go extinct? Why did the student loan pause increase debt? Plus, do government benefits change how parents invest in their kids? To wrap up 2023, Tess Vigeland reviews some of the economic research we've featured on the show throughout the year. Plus, a word from the UChicago team behind The Pie.

Women who have unplanned births experience earnings losses of up to 25%, while planned births reduce earnings by roughly 15%. Yana Gallen, Assistant Professor at the Harris School of Public Policy, joins The Pie to discuss her research on how pregnancy timing impacts women's careers.

Would you rather keep things as is, or, remove yourself and all your friends from social media? You aren't alone if you chose the latter. Recent research from UChicago economist Leo Bursztyn ushers new survey evidence to show how fear of missing out keeps some users online. Learn more on The Pie.

Roughly a quarter of all paid workdays are now done from home, up from 7% in 2019. How did this shift unfold across different areas, industries, and worker demographics? Steven Davis, Professor Emeritus at Chicago Booth and work-from-home expert, joins The Pie to share his research.

The United States imprisons its population at a rate that is on par with North Korea. In this episode, Evan Rose of the Kenneth C. Griffin Department of Economics discusses what happens when this massive subset of individuals rejoins the labor force. Hint: It's not what you might expect.

The rate of school suspensions has more than doubled for Black and Latino children since 1974, inspiring a small but growing movement aimed at finding new disciplinary solutions that deter undesirable behavior without imparting harm. Harris Policy's Anjali Adukia joins The Pie to discuss her partnership with Chicago Public Schools, and what happened when teachers replaced exclusionary disciplinary practices, such as suspensions, with restorative practices that emphasize community building and restitution.

Police use of force has prompted a national debate around misconduct and how to solve what many believe to be a systemic issue. Harris Policy's Oeindrila Dube and Chicago Booth's Anuj Shah partnered with the Chicago Police Department for an experiment that found a different kind of behavioral training could effectively reduce adverse outcomes.

As a massive carbon sink, the Brazilian Amazon plays a crucial role in stabilizing the global climate. It's also valuable farmland. How do economists measure this tradeoff? Lars Peter Hansen, Nobel Laureate and UChicago economist, joins The Pie to discuss his recent research on how policymakers might make the most of this precious and dwindling resource.

The U.S. government swung into action when the ranks of the pandemic unemployed swelled almost beyond recognition. Three years on, economists are continuing to study the effects of the largest increase in unemployment benefits in U.S. history. The Harris School of Public Policy's Peter Ganong and Chicago Booth's Joseph Vavra join The Pie to discuss the impacts on spending and job-finding.

How much effect do government policies have on doctors' wages? And when those wages are high, does it drive inequality in other jobs? And how does Taylor Swift factor in? Or Beyoncé? Joshua D. Gottlieb of the Harris School of Public Policy joins The Pie to discuss his research using detailed data to study earnings and how they're influenced by forces like public policy and rising inequality.

When the Los Angeles Unified School District combined some neighborhood high schools into Zones of Choice, schools had to compete for students. The result? Achievement gaps narrowed, and more kids reported that they liked school. Chris Campos of Chicago Booth joins The Pie to discuss the results of a new study.