Podcast appearances and mentions of Raghuram Rajan

A version of this essay has been published by firstpost.com at https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/shadow-warrior-from-crisis-to-advantage-how-india-can-outplay-the-trump-tariff-gambit-13923031.htmlA simple summary of the recent brouhaha about President Trump's imposition of 25% tariffs on India as well as his comment on India's ‘dead economy' is the following from Shakespeare's Macbeth: “full of sound and fury, signifying nothing”. Trump further imposed punitive tariffs totalling 50% on August 6th allegedly for India funding Russia's war machine via buying oil.As any negotiator knows, a good opening gambit is intended to set the stage for further parleys, so that you could arrive at a negotiated settlement that is acceptable to both parties. The opening gambit could well be a maximalist statement, or one's ‘dream outcome', the opposite of which is ‘the walkway point' beyond which you are simply not willing to make concessions. The usual outcome is somewhere in between these two positions or postures.Trump is both a tough negotiator, and prone to making broad statements from which he has no problem retreating later. It's down-and-dirty boardroom tactics that he's bringing to international trade. Therefore I think Indians don't need to get rattled. It's not the end of the world, and there will be climbdowns and adjustments. Think hard about the long term.I was on a panel discussion on this topic on TV just hours after Trump made his initial 25% announcement, and I mentioned an interplay between geo-politics and geo-economics. Trump is annoyed that his Ukraine-Russia play is not making much headway, and also that BRICS is making progress towards de-dollarization. India is caught in this crossfire (‘collateral damage') but the geo-economic facts on the ground are not favorable to Trump.I am in general agreement with Trump on his objectives of bringing manufacturing and investment back to the US, but I am not sure that he will succeed, and anyway his strong-arm tactics may backfire. I consider below what India should be prepared to do to turn adversity into opportunity.The anti-Thucydides Trap and the baleful influence of Whitehall on Deep StateWhat is remarkable, though, is that Trump 2.0 seems to be indistinguishable from the Deep State: I wondered last month if the Deep State had ‘turned' Trump. The main reason many people supported Trump in the first place was the damage the Deep State was wreaking on the US under the Obama-Biden regime. But it appears that the resourceful Deep State has now co-opted Trump for its agenda, and I can only speculate how.The net result is that there is the anti-Thucydides Trap: here is the incumbent power, the US, actively supporting the insurgent power, China, instead of suppressing it, as Graham Allison suggested as the historical pattern. It, in all fairness, did not start with Trump, but with Nixon in China in 1971. In 1985, the US trade deficit with China was $6 million. In 1986, $1.78 billion. In 1995, $35 billion.But it ballooned after China entered the WTO in 2001. $202 billion in 2005; $386 billion in 2022.In 2025, after threatening China with 150% tariffs, Trump retreated by postponing them; besides he has caved in to Chinese demands for Nvidia chips and for exemptions from Iran oil sanctions if I am not mistaken.All this can be explained by one word: leverage. China lured the US with the siren-song of the cost-leader ‘China price', tempting CEOs and Wall Street, who sleepwalked into surrender to the heft of the Chinese supply chain.Now China has cornered Trump via its monopoly over various things, the most obvious of which is rare earths. Trump really has no option but to give in to Chinese blackmail. That must make him furious: in addition to his inability to get Putin to listen to him, Xi is also ignoring him. Therefore, he will take out his frustrations on others, such as India, the EU, Japan, etc. Never mind that he's burning bridges with them.There's a Malayalam proverb that's relevant here: “angadiyil thottathinu ammayodu”. Meaning, you were humiliated in the marketplace, so you come home and take it out on your mother. This is quite likely what Trump is doing, because he believes India et al will not retaliate. In fact Japan and the EU did not retaliate, but gave in, also promising to invest large sums in the US. India could consider a different path: not active conflict, but not giving in either, because its equations with the US are different from those of the EU or Japan.Even the normally docile Japanese are beginning to notice.Beyond that, I suggested a couple of years ago that Deep State has a plan to enter into a condominium agreement with China, so that China gets Asia, and the US gets the Americas and the Pacific/Atlantic. This is exactly like the Vatican-brokered medieval division of the world between Spain and Portugal, and it probably will be equally bad for everyone else. And incidentally it makes the Quad infructuous, and deepens distrust of American motives.The Chinese are sure that they have achieved the condominium, or rather forced the Americans into it. Here is a headline from the Financial Express about their reaction to the tariffs: they are delighted that the principal obstacle in their quest for hegemony, a US-India military and economic alliance, is being blown up by Trump, and they lose no opportunity to deride India as not quite up to the mark, whereas they and the US have achieved a G2 detente.Two birds with one stone: gloat about the breakdown in the US-India relationship, and exhibit their racist disdain for India yet again.They laugh, but I bet India can do an end-run around them. As noted above, the G2 is a lot like the division of the world into Spanish and Portuguese spheres of influence in 1494. Well, that didn't end too well for either of them. They had their empires, which they looted for gold and slaves, but it made them fat, dumb and happy. The Dutch, English, and French capitalized on more dynamic economies, flexible colonial systems, and aggressive competition, overtaking the Iberian powers in global influence by the 17th century. This is a salutary historical parallel.I have long suspected that the US Deep State is being led by the nose by the malign Whitehall (the British Deep State): I call it the ‘master-blaster' syndrome. On August 6th, there was indirect confirmation of this in ex-British PM Boris Johnson's tweet about India. Let us remember he single-handedly ruined the chances of a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine War in 2022. Whitehall's mischief and meddling all over, if you read between the lines.Did I mention the British Special Force's views? Ah, Whitehall is getting a bit sloppy in its propaganda.Wait, so is India important (according to Whitehall) or unimportant (according to Trump)?Since I am very pro-American, I have a word of warning to Trump: you trust perfidious Albion at your peril. Their country is ruined, and they will not rest until they ruin yours too.I also wonder if there are British paw-prints in a recent and sudden spate of racist attacks on Indians in Ireland. A 6-year old girl was assaulted and kicked in the private parts. A nurse was gang-raped by a bunch of teenagers. Ireland has never been so racist against Indians (yes, I do remember the sad case of Savita Halappanavar, but that was religious bigotry more than racism). And I remember sudden spikes in anti-Indian attacks in Australia and Canada, both British vassals.There is no point in Indians whining about how the EU and America itself are buying more oil, palladium, rare earths, uranium etc. from Russia than India is. I am sorry to say this, but Western nations are known for hypocrisy. For example, exactly 80 years ago they dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan, but not on Germany or Italy. Why? The answer is uncomfortable. Lovely post-facto rationalization, isn't it?Remember the late lamented British East India Company that raped and pillaged India?Applying the three winning strategies to geo-economicsAs a professor of business strategy and innovation, I emphasize to my students that there are three broad ways of gaining an advantage over others: 1. Be the cost leader, 2. Be the most customer-intimate player, 3. Innovate. The US as a nation is patently not playing the cost leader; it does have some customer intimacy, but it is shrinking; its strength is in innovation.If you look at comparative advantage, the US at one time had strengths in all three of the above. Because it had the scale of a large market (and its most obvious competitors in Europe were decimated by world wars) America did enjoy an ability to be cost-competitive, especially as the dollar is the global default reserve currency. It demonstrated this by pushing through the Plaza Accords, forcing the Japanese yen to appreciate, destroying their cost advantage.In terms of customer intimacy, the US is losing its edge. Take cars for example: Americans practically invented them, and dominated the business, but they are in headlong retreat now because they simply don't make cars that people want outside the US: Japanese, Koreans, Germans and now Chinese do. Why were Ford and GM forced to leave the India market? Their “world cars” are no good in value-conscious India and other emerging markets.Innovation, yes, has been an American strength. Iconic Americans like Thomas Edison, Henry Ford, and Steve Jobs led the way in product and process innovation. US universities have produced idea after idea, and startups have ignited Silicon Valley. In fact Big Tech and aerospace/armaments are the biggest areas where the US leads these days.The armaments and aerospace tradeThat is pertinent because of two reasons: one is Trump's peevishness at India's purchase of weapons from Russia (even though that has come down from 70+% of imports to 36% according to SIPRI); two is the fact that there are significant services and intangible imports by India from the US, of for instance Big Tech services, even some routed through third countries like Ireland.Armaments and aerospace purchases from the US by India have gone up a lot: for example the Apache helicopters that arrived recently, the GE 404 engines ordered for India's indigenous fighter aircraft, Predator drones and P8-i Poseidon maritime surveillance aircraft. I suspect Trump is intent on pushing India to buy F-35s, the $110-million dollar 5th generation fighters.Unfortunately, the F-35 has a spotty track record. There were two crashes recently, one in Albuquerque in May, and the other on July 31 in Fresno, and that's $220 million dollars gone. Besides, the spectacle of a hapless British-owned F-35B sitting, forlorn, in the rain, in Trivandrum airport for weeks, lent itself to trolls, who made it the butt of jokes. I suspect India has firmly rebuffed Trump on this front, which has led to his focus on Russian arms.There might be other pushbacks too. Personally, I think India does need more P-8i submarine hunter-killer aircraft to patrol the Bay of Bengal, but India is exerting its buyer power. There are rumors of pauses in orders for Javelin and Stryker missiles as well.On the civilian aerospace front, I am astonished that all the media stories about Air India 171 and the suspicion that Boeing and/or General Electric are at fault have disappeared without a trace. Why? There had been the big narrative push to blame the poor pilots, and now that there is more than reasonable doubt that these US MNCs are to blame, there is a media blackout?Allegations about poor manufacturing practices by Boeing in North Charleston, South Carolina by whistleblowers have been damaging for the company's brand: this is where the 787 Dreamliners are put together. It would not be surprising if there is a slew of cancellations of orders for Boeing aircraft, with customers moving to Airbus. Let us note Air India and Indigo have placed some very large, multi-billion dollar orders with Boeing that may be in jeopardy.India as a consuming economy, and the services trade is hugely in the US' favorMany observers have pointed out the obvious fact that India is not an export-oriented economy, unlike, say, Japan or China. It is more of a consuming economy with a large, growing and increasingly less frugal population, and therefore it is a target for exporters rather than a competitor for exporting countries. As such, the impact of these US tariffs on India will be somewhat muted, and there are alternative destinations for India's exports, if need be.While Trump has focused on merchandise trade and India's modest surplus there, it is likely that there is a massive services trade, which is in the US' favor. All those Big Tech firms, such as Microsoft, Meta, Google and so on run a surplus in the US' favor, which may not be immediately evident because they route their sales through third countries, e.g. Ireland.These are the figures from the US Trade Representative, and quite frankly I don't believe them: there are a lot of invisible services being sold to India, and the value of Indian data is ignored.In addition to the financial implications, there are national security concerns. Take the case of Microsoft's cloud offering, Azure, which arbitrarily turned off services to Indian oil retailer Nayara on the flimsy grounds that the latter had substantial investment from Russia's Rosneft. This is an example of jurisdictional over-reach by US companies, which has dire consequences. India has been lax about controlling Big Tech, and this has to change.India is Meta's largest customer base. Whatsapp is used for practically everything. Which means that Meta has access to enormous amounts of Indian customer data, for which India is not even enforcing local storage. This is true of all other Big Tech (see OpenAI's Sam Altman below): they are playing fast and loose with Indian data, which is not in India's interest at all.Data is the new oil, says The Economist magazine. So how much should Meta, OpenAI et al be paying for Indian data? Meta is worth trillions of dollars, OpenAI half a trillion. How much of that can be attributed to Indian data?There is at least one example of how India too can play the digital game: UPI. Despite ham-handed efforts to now handicap UPI with a fee (thank you, brilliant government bureaucrats, yes, go ahead and kill the goose that lays the golden eggs), it has become a contender in a field that has long been dominated by the American duopoly of Visa and Mastercard. In other words, India can scale up and compete.It is unfortunate that India has not built up its own Big Tech behind a firewall as has been done behind the Great Firewall of China. But it is not too late. Is it possible for India-based cloud service providers to replace US Big Tech like Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure? Yes, there is at least one player in that market: Zoho.Second, what are the tariffs on Big Tech exports to India these days? What if India were to decide to impose a 50% tax on revenue generated in India through advertisement or through sales of services, mirroring the US's punitive taxes on Indian goods exports? Let me hasten to add that I am not suggesting this, it is merely a hypothetical argument.There could also be non-tariff barriers as China has implemented, but not India: data locality laws, forced use of local partners, data privacy laws like the EU's GDPR, anti-monopoly laws like the EU's Digital Markets Act, strict application of IPR laws like 3(k) that absolutely prohibits the patenting of software, and so on. India too can play legalistic games. This is a reason US agri-products do not pass muster: genetically modified seeds, and milk from cows fed with cattle feed from blood, offal and ground-up body parts.Similarly, in the ‘information' industry, India is likely to become the largest English-reading country in the world. I keep getting come-hither emails from the New York Times offering me $1 a month deals on their product: they want Indian customers. There are all these American media companies present in India, untrammelled by content controls or taxes. What if India were to give a choice to Bloomberg, Reuters, NYTimes, WaPo, NPR et al: 50% tax, or exit?This attack on peddlers of fake information and manufacturing consent I do suggest, and I have been suggesting for years. It would make no difference whatsoever to India if these media outlets were ejected, and they surely could cover India (well, basically what they do is to demean India) just as well from abroad. Out with them: good riddance to bad rubbish.What India needs to doI believe India needs to play the long game. It has to use its shatrubodha to realize that the US is not its enemy: in Chanakyan terms, the US is the Far Emperor. The enemy is China, or more precisely the Chinese Empire. Han China is just a rump on their south-eastern coast, but it is their conquered (and restive) colonies such as Tibet, Xinjiang, Manchuria and Inner Mongolia, that give them their current heft.But the historical trends are against China. It has in the past had stable governments for long periods, based on strong (and brutal) imperial power. Then comes the inevitable collapse, when the center falls apart, and there is absolute chaos. It is quite possible, given various trends, including demographic changes, that this may happen to China by 2050.On the other hand, (mostly thanks, I acknowledge, to China's manufacturing growth), the center of gravity of the world economy has been steadily shifting towards Asia. The momentum might swing towards India if China stumbles, but in any case the era of Atlantic dominance is probably gone for good. That was, of course, only a historical anomaly. Asia has always dominated: see Angus Maddison's magisterial history of the world economy, referred to below as well.I am reminded of the old story of the king berating his court poet for calling him “the new moon” and the emperor “the full moon”. The poet escaped being punished by pointing out that the new moon is waxing and the full moon is waning.This is the long game India has to keep in mind. Things are coming together for India to a great extent: in particular the demographic dividend, improved infrastructure, fiscal prudence, and the increasing centrality of the Indian Ocean as the locus of trade and commerce.India can attempt to gain competitive advantage in all three ways outlined above:* Cost-leadership. With a large market (assuming companies are willing to invest at scale), a low-cost labor force, and with a proven track-record of frugal innovation, India could well aim to be a cost-leader in selected areas of manufacturing. But this requires government intervention in loosening monetary policy and in reducing barriers to ease of doing business* Customer-intimacy. What works in highly value-conscious India could well work in other developing countries. For instance, the economic environment in ASEAN is largely similar to India's, and so Indian products should appeal to their residents; similarly with East Africa. Thus the Indian Ocean Rim with its huge (and in Africa's case, rapidly growing) population should be a natural fit for Indian products* Innovation. This is the hardest part, and it requires a new mindset in education and industry, to take risks and work at the bleeding edge of technology. In general, Indians have been content to replicate others' innovations at lower cost or do jugaad (which cannot scale up). To do real, disruptive innovation, first of all the services mindset should transition to a product mindset (sorry, Raghuram Rajan). Second, the quality of human capital must be improved. Third, there should be patient risk capital. Fourth, there should be entrepreneurs willing to try risky things. All of these are difficult, but doable.And what is the end point of this game? Leverage. The ability to compel others to buy from you.China has demonstrated this through its skill at being a cost-leader in industry after industry, often hollowing out entire nations through means both fair and foul. These means include far-sighted industrial policy including the acquisition of skills, technology, and raw materials, as well as hidden subsidies that support massive scaling, which ends up driving competing firms elsewhere out of business. India can learn a few lessons from them. One possible lesson is building capabilities, as David Teece of UC Berkeley suggested in 1997, that can span multiple products, sectors and even industries: the classic example is that of Nikon, whose optics strength helps it span industries such as photography, printing, and photolithography for chip manufacturing. Here is an interesting snapshot of China's capabilities today.2025 is, in a sense, a point of inflection for India just as the crisis in 1991 was. India had been content to plod along at the Nehruvian Rate of Growth of 2-3%, believing this was all it could achieve, as a ‘wounded civilization'. From that to a 6-7% growth rate is a leap, but it is not enough, nor is it testing the boundaries of what India can accomplish.1991 was the crisis that turned into an opportunity by accident. 2025 is a crisis that can be carefully and thoughtfully turned into an opportunity.The Idi Amin syndrome and the 1000 Talents program with AIThere is a key area where an American error may well be a windfall for India. This is based on the currently fashionable H1-B bashing which is really a race-bashing of Indians, and which has been taken up with gusto by certain MAGA folks. Once again, I suspect the baleful influence of Whitehall behind it, but whatever the reason, it looks like Indians are going to have a hard time settling down in the US.There are over a million Indians on H1-Bs, a large number of them software engineers, let us assume for convenience there are 250,000 of them. Given country caps of exactly 9800 a year, they have no realistic chance of getting a Green Card in the near future, and given the increasingly fraught nature of life there for brown people, they may leave the US, and possibly return to India..I call this the Idi Amin syndrome. In 1972, the dictator of Uganda went on a rampage against Indian-origin people in his country, and forcibly expelled 80,000 of them, because they were dominating the economy. There were unintended consequences: those who were ejected mostly went to the US and UK, and they have in many cases done well. But Uganda's economy virtually collapsed.That's a salutary experience. I am by no means saying that the US economy would collapse, but am pointing to the resilience of the Indians who were expelled. If, similarly, Trump forces a large number of Indians to return to India, that might well be a case of short-term pain and long-term gain: urvashi-shapam upakaram, as in the Malayalam phrase.Their return would be akin to what happened in China and Taiwan with their successful effort to attract their diaspora back. The Chinese program was called 1000 Talents, and they scoured the globe for academics and researchers of Chinese origin, and brought them back with attractive incentives and large budgets. They had a major role in energizing the Chinese economy.Similarly, Taiwan with Hsinchu University attracted high-quality talent, among which was the founder of TSMC, the globally dominant chip giant.And here is Trump offering to India on a platter at least 100,000 software engineers, especially at a time when generativeAI is decimating low-end jobs everywhere. They can work on some very compelling projects that could revolutionize Indian education, up-skilling and so on, and I am not at liberty to discuss them. Suffice to say that these could turbo-charge the Indian software industry and get it away from mundane, routine body-shopping type jobs.ConclusionThe Trump tariff tantrum is definitely a short-term problem for India, but it can be turned around, and turned into an opportunity, if only the country plays its cards right and focuses on building long-term comparative advantages and accepting the gift of a mis-step by Trump in geo-economics.In geo-politics, India and the US need each other to contain China, and so that part, being so obvious, will be taken care of more or less by default.Thus, overall, the old SWOT analysis: strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. On balance, I am of the opinion that the threats contain in them the germs of opportunities. It is up to Indians to figure out how to take advantage of them. This is your game to win or lose, India!4150 words, 9 Aug 2025 This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit rajeevsrinivasan.substack.com/subscribe

A version of this essay has been published by firstpost.com at https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/shadow-warrior-zohran-mamdani-and-the-coming-crisis-for-hindus-in-america-13908482.htmlI have long felt the Deep State works on a single playbook in its foreign policy: regime-change, or what is colloquially called ‘Color Revolutions'. It is a simple routine: in some remote country, declare the ruling dispensation to be mad dogs, and shoot them, metaphorically if not in reality. Anoint a ‘friend' as the new chief. All hail to him/her! The pliant media goes along.There have been innumerable such plays all over the world, and most of the time, the results have been bad to disastrous for the country in question. Just look at Ukraine, Iraq, Libya, and Syria for recent examples. Iran, too, when Mossadegh was toppled because of, what else, oil: BP was annoyed at him for nationalizing Iranian oil.As an aside, I have wondered why Deep State did not orchestrate a color revolution against the Nehru Dynasty. On the face of it, there were plenty of reasons to do so: Jawaharlal's embrace of the Soviet Union, Indira's defiance regarding East Pakistan, and so on. So why didn't they topple the Dynasty and install a puppet, as they did with Mohammed Yunus in Bangladesh?Maybe India was just too unimportant. Or maybe, just maybe, the Nehru Dynasty was in fact the Deep State puppet already in place. Was Jawaharlal hand-picked, and didn't even know?So is Zohran Mamdani's rise the first Color Revolution in the US? A friend claimed that it wasn't, and that Barack Obama was the first. That is a debatable point, but one could argue that Obama 1 & 2, and Obama 3 (Biden's term) were the worst presidencies in US history.While there have been many good opinion pieces written about Mamdani's rise and rise, for instance by Jaggi and Avatans Kumar, I would like to focus on the broader implications of what Deep State might achieve by rolling out a Color Revolution in its own backyard. It's one thing to mess up a far-off country, and entirely a different thing to screw up your own premier city. This is a high-risk (and presumably high-return) strategy for Deep State.Of course, the UK Deep State (aka Whitehall) may well be leading the US Deep State by the nose. I called it a “master-blaster” relationship, hat tip to Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome. This color revolution possibility is not something I invented out of thin air, I give due credit to, among others, San for noting this possibility, along with many other unusual things about the Mamdani campaign, including its connection to Soros, as well as the uncompromising religious bigotry and use of dog-whistles against, for instance, Jews and Hindus. So Zohran Mamdani is worth watching, and so is his father, Columbia Professor Mamdani, who wrote something alarming in his 2004 book Good Muslim, Bad Muslim: America, the Cold War, and the Roots of Terror: see an excerpt below that seems to justify suicide bombing as a tactic. Of course, he may just have been doing an academic analysis, and surely, what the father said cannot be attributed to the son, but we can wonder about early influences on Zohran.Beyond the personal proclivities of the man and family, there is a mixture of Islamist radicalism and extreme-left radicalism in Zohran Mamdani's background. Some have called his rise a victory for the Red-Green Alliance, which is of significance to India, because here too we have often seen such a combination in play. Besides, it's notable that Mamdani has never said a word about atrocities committed on Hindus in Pakistan/Bangladesh or even in India, though he's quick to make up atrocity literature alleging “Gujarati Muslims have been wiped out” in India. About 10 million Gujarati Muslims may like to differ. Amazingly, the very people whom Mamdani is supposed to be emancipating, the underclass blacks and other low-income residents of NYC, did not vote for him. His victory in the Democratic primary came from young, well-off whites and “Asians” (the same Asians as in the UK?), and unions. That itself is telling. The bigger question, though, is how this relates to the eclipse of the West. I take the UK as Exhibit A. There was a recent article in the Economist magazine about how Britain is now a cheap country. In other words, the per capita income has fallen, and British assets are valued low, because there is a general perception of malaise, partly because manufacturing has collapsed.The headline is precious. It reminds me of the subtitle to Stanley Kubrik's “Dr Strangelove: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb”. Right on, cheers, tally-ho!It was hugely entertaining to also listen to an Economist podcast which suggested that a “services-led economy” would be the UK's savior. Raghuram Rajan, take a bow. Necessity being the mother of invention, I suppose. There is not a single product of British manufacturing that anybody wants (with the possible exception of Rolls-Royce aircraft engines). They were able to dump their inferior goods on defenseless colonies (read: India) but those days are over.They are now apparently depending on services (e.g., their journalism, which, with its clipped accents, impresses Americans, but is available to the highest bidder. The word “Presstitutes” leaps to mind). In addition, IT services, it seems, given their convenient time zone. And cheap IT labor. Yes, direct threat to India. Wipro, Infosys, TCS, I am sure are paralyzed with fear. The UK is, in many ways, the canary in the coalmine. Its precipitous decline is related to the fact that it is a small island off northwest Asia, whereas of course the US is a continent-sized country with massive resources. But the other factors: the previous holder of the global reserve currency, the previous dominant superpower, etc., are relevant to the US.To be honest, I have no idea what the UK's elites are thinking, because their current trajectory is going to end in disaster. As I have said before, they have fancied themselves as dealmakers extraordinaire, with Whitehall leading the world in mischief. But they were too clever by half: their homeland is collapsing. I don't mind, it's schadenfreude time, but I wonder what 3-d chess they are playing. I wonder if the US Deep State has a clue that the US could end up like the UK. The one thing that has sustained the UK in the last few decades is their financial services. But with the LIBOR scandal and Brexit, that game is also moving on: to Frankfurt, Singapore, Dubai (and eventually I guess GIFT City, India). The City of London, the name of the financial district, has been decimated. This is a warning to Wall Street in New York City.Another warning comes from California in general, and San Francisco in particular. Once the most appealing of American cities, it has been turned into a fetid, dangerous place full of yes, “street-shitters” and fentanyl addicts. The main culprit has been rule by left-wing extremists who put in place the ingredients for terminal decline: for instance, a moratorium on prosecuting any property crimes worth less than $950, which led to the hollowing out of retail downtown.I am not saying New York City is a pleasant place especially compared to what San Francisco was (I lived for a long time in the suburbs of both, so I have personal experience) but there is surely a lot that can go wrong with socialism of the Mamdani variety. Exhibits A, B, C: Venezuela, Cuba, etc. What is of more immediate concern to Hindus is that the US will become more dangerous for them. As it is, the amount of racial hatred and animosity towards brown Hindus has grown perceptibly, aided by social media ‘influencers' who are likely paid by ISI/CCP/Deep State. There is also the element of envy, as Hindus have risen to high positions, mostly by way of hard work and smarts. In analogy with Jews, this envy can turn into poisonous bigotry. We have seen how Kristallnachts develop. And then Final Solutions. The UK has seen, along with the growth of its Muslim population (“demography is destiny”) a concomitant level of animosity and violence against Hindus: see Leicester; and the British establishment is so afraid of Muslims that they will not take any steps to curb their acts. This is leading to clear and present danger for Hindus. We have seen this movie before.In addition to the increasing animosity towards H1-B holding Indians, who are predominantly Hindus, a victory for Zohran Mamdani will basically make it clear to US Hindus that their days are numbered, and that the US may rapidly follow the UK into societal and economic collapse. It's a sobering thought. Do we have a Plan B?1330 words, 15 Jul 2025 This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit rajeevsrinivasan.substack.com/subscribe

Jon Hartley and Raghuram Rajan discuss Raghu's research, his policy career including his time as the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India and the Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, India adopting inflation targeting during his tenure, Rajan predicting the 2008 financial crisis, and economic growth in India, the legacy of his book Saving Capitalism from the Capitalists among many other topics. Recorded on February 19, 2025. ABOUT THE SPEAKERS: Raghuram Rajan is the Katherine Dusak Miller Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at Chicago Booth. He was the 23rd Governor of the Reserve Bank of India between September 2013 and September 2016. Between 2003 and 2006, Dr. Rajan was the Chief Economist and Director of Research at the International Monetary Fund. Dr. Rajan's research interests are in banking, corporate finance, and economic development. The books he has written include Breaking the Mold: Reimagining India's Economic Future with Rohit Lamba,  The Third Pillar: How the State and Markets hold the Community Behind 2019 which was a finalist for the Financial Times Business Book of the Year prize and Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy, for which he was awarded the Financial Times prize for Business Book of the Year in 2010. Dr. Rajan is a member of the Group of Thirty. He was the President of the American Finance Association in 2011 and is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. In January 2003, the American Finance Association awarded Dr. Rajan the inaugural Fischer Black Prize for the best finance researcher under the age of 40. The other awards he has received include the Infosys Prize for the Economic Sciences in 2012, the Deutsche Bank Prize for Financial Economics in 2013, Euromoney Central Banker Governor of the Year 2014, and Banker Magazine (FT Group) Central Bank Governor of the Year 2016. Dr. Rajan is the Chairman of the Per Jacobsson Foundation, the senior economic advisor to BDT Capital, and a managing director at Andersen Tax. Jon Hartley is a policy fellow, the host of the Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century Podcast at the Hoover Institution and an economics PhD Candidate at Stanford University, where he specializes in finance, labor economics, and macroeconomics. He is also currently an Affiliated Scholar at the Mercatus Center, a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity (FREOPP), and a Senior Fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute. Jon is also a member of the Canadian Group of Economists, and serves as chair of the Economic Club of Miami. Jon has previously worked at Goldman Sachs Asset Management as well as in various policy roles at the World Bank, IMF, Committee on Capital Markets Regulation, US Congress Joint Economic Committee, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and the Bank of Canada.  Jon has also been a regular economics contributor for National Review Online, Forbes, and The Huffington Post and has contributed to The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, USA Today, Globe and Mail, National Post, and Toronto Star among other outlets. Jon has also appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, Fox News, Bloomberg, and NBC, and was named to the 2017 Forbes 30 Under 30 Law & Policy list, the 2017 Wharton 40 Under 40 list, and was previously a World Economic Forum Global Shaper. ABOUT THE SERIES: Each episode of Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century, a video podcast series and the official podcast of the Hoover Economic Policy Working Group, focuses on getting into the weeds of economics, finance, and public policy on important current topics through one-on-one interviews. Host Jon Hartley asks guests about their main ideas and contributions to academic research and policy. The podcast is titled after Milton Friedman‘s famous 1962 bestselling book Capitalism and Freedom, which after 60 years, remains prescient from its focus on various topics which are now at the forefront of economic debates, such as monetary policy and inflation, fiscal policy, occupational licensing, education vouchers, income share agreements, the distribution of income, and negative income taxes, among many other topics. For more information, visit: capitalismandfreedom.substack.com/

He's lived a rich life as a journalist, a human rights activist, an author, a columnist -- and now he's written a great book on Gujaratis. Salil Tripathi joins Amit Varma in episode 409 of The Seen and the Unseen to discuss his life, his learnings, these times we live in -- and the times that came before. (FOR FULL LINKED SHOW NOTES, GO TO SEENUNSEEN.IN.) Also check out: 1. Salil Tripathi on Twitter, Instagram, Wikipedia, LinkedIn and Amazon. 2. The Gujaratis: A Portrait of a Community -- Salil Tripathi. 3. The Colonel Who Would Not Repent -- Salil Tripathi. 4. Offence – The Hindu Case -- Salil Tripathi. 5. Detours: Songs of the Open Road -- Salil Tripathi. 6. For, In Your Tongue, I Cannot Fit -- Edited by Shilpa Gupta and Salil Tripathi. 7. The Gita Press and Hindu Nationalism — Episode 139 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Akshaya Mukul). 8. Gita Press and the Making of Hindu India — Akshaya Mukul. 9. Saraswatichandra (Gujarati) (English) -- Govardhanram Tripathi. 10. Gujarat Ni Asmita -- KM Munshi. 11. I Follow the Mahatma -- KM Munshi. 12. Devdutt Pattanaik and the Stories That Shape Us — Episode 404 of The Seen and the Unseen. 13. Ahimsa: 100 Reflections on the Harappan Civilization — Devdutt Pattanaik. 14. Until the Lions -- Karthika Nair. 15. Gods, Guns and Missionaries: The Making of the Modern Hindu Identity — Manu Pillai. 16. The Forces That Shaped Hinduism -- Episode 405 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Manu Pillai). 17. Heroic Failure: Brexit and the Politics of Pain -- Fintan O'Toole. 18. Understanding Gandhi: Part 1: Mohandas — Episode 104 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ram Guha). 19. Understanding Gandhi: Part 2: Mahatma — Episode 105 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ram Guha). 20. Gandhi Before India -- Ramachandra Guha. 21. Objects From Our Past -- Episode 77 of Everything is Everything. 22. The Diary of Manu Gandhi (Part 1) (Part 2) -- Edited and Translated by Tridip Suhrud. 23. The Ferment of Our Founders — Episode 272 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Kapila). 24. Lessons from an Ankhon Dekhi Prime Minister — Amit Varma. 25. Akhil Katyal's poem on caste. 26. Midnight's Children -- Salman Rushdie. 27. Bare Feet – a Poem about MF Husain -- Salil Tripathi. 28. My Mother's Fault -- Salil Tripathi. 29. Jejuri -- Arun Kolatkar. 30. Yashwant Rao -- Arun Kolatkar. 31. The Patriot -- Nissim Ezekiel. 32. Goopy Gyne Bagha Byne -- Satyajit Ray. 33. You're Missing -- Bruce Springsteen. 34. Gabriel Garcia Marquez, Salman Rushdie, Milan Kundera, Ved Mehta and John McPhee on Amazon. 35. All We Imagine as Light -- Payal Kapadia. 36. Niranjan Rajadhyaksha Is the Impartial Spectator — Episode 388 of The Seen and the Unseen. 37. On Tyranny -- Timothy Snyder. 38. Lant Pritchett Is on Team Prosperity — Episode 379 of The Seen and the Unseen. 39. Saving Capitalism From The Capitalists -- Raghuram Rajan and Luigi Zingales. 40. Check out Johan Norberg's great work. 41. The Life and Times of the Indian Economy — Episode 387 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rajeswari Sengupta). 42. India's Problem is Poverty, Not Inequality — Amit Varma. 43. Stay Away From Luxury Beliefs — Episode 46 of Everything is Everything. 44. On Inequality — Harry Frankfurt. 45. Economic growth is enough and only economic growth is enough — Lant Pritchett with Addison Lewis. 46. Sample SSR conspiracy theory: He's alive! 47. Amit Varma's 2022 piece on the mess-up at The Wire. 48. Television Price Controls — Episode 27 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ashok Malik). 49. The Selfish Altruist -- Tony Vaux. 50. Sadanand Dhume's tweet on the hypocrisy around The Satanic Verses. 51. Bad Elements -- Ian Buruma. 52. Biju Rao Won't Bow to Conventional Wisdom — Episode 392 of The Seen and the Unseen. 53. Can Economics Become More Reflexive? — Vijayendra Rao. 54. The Life and Times of Teesta Setalvad — Episode 302 of The Seen and the Unseen. 55. Aakar Patel Is Full of Hope — Episode 270 of The Seen and the Unseen. 56. The Wal-Mart Effect -- Charles Fishman. 57. Modern South India -- Rajmohan Gandhi. 58. The Adda at the End of the Universe — Episode 309 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vikram Sathaye and Roshan Abbas). 59. Whatever happened To Ehsan Jafri on February 28, 2002? — Harsh Mander. 60. Jai Jai Garvi Gujarat -- Narmad. 61. The Populist Playbook -- Episode 42 of Everything is Everything. 62. Where the Green Ants Dream -- Werner Herzog. 63. People's Linguistic Survey of India -- GN Devy and others. 64. The Refreshing Audacity of Vinay Singhal — Episode 291 of The Seen and the Unseen. 65. Stage.in. 66. Reading Lolita in Tehran -- Azar Nafisi. 67. Two Concepts of Liberty — Isaiah Berlin. 68. Understanding the State -- Episode 25 of Everything is Everything. 69. The First Assault on Our Constitution — Episode 194 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Tripurdaman Singh). 70. Shruti Rajagopalan's talk on the many amendments in our constitution. 71. Caged Tiger: How Too Much Government Is Holding Indians Back — Subhashish Bhadra. 72. Subhashish Bhadra on Our Dysfunctional State — Episode 333 of The Seen and the Unseen. 73. Amitava Kumar Finds the Breath of Life — Episode 265 of The Seen and the Unseen. 74. Goodbye Solo — Ramin Bahrani. 75. The desire to help, and the desire not to be helped — Roger Ebert's review of Goodbye Solo. 76. Dalit Kitchens of Marathwada -- Shahu Patole. 77. Firaaq -- Nandita Das. 78. How the BJP Wins — Prashant Jha. 79. The BJP's Magic Formula — Episode 45 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Prashant Jha). 80. The Year of Living Dangerously -- Peter Weir. 81. Ingmar Bergman, Satyajit Ray, Francois Truffaut and Aparna Sen. 82. The New Yorker, Vanity Fair and London Review of Books. 83. Ravi Shankar, Zakir Hussain and Vilayat Khan on Spotify. 84. Nadine Gordiner, Fintan O'Toole, Ilya Kaminsky, Karthika Nair, Ruchir Joshi, Kiran Desai, Nilanjana Roy, Sunil Gavaskar and Mike Brearley. This episode is sponsored by CTQ Compounds. Check out The Daily Reader and FutureStack. Use the code UNSEEN for Rs 2500 off. Amit Varma and Ajay Shah have launched a new course called Life Lessons, which aims to be a launchpad towards learning essential life skills all of you need. For more details, and to sign up, click here. Amit and Ajay also bring out a weekly YouTube show, Everything is Everything. Have you watched it yet? You must! And have you read Amit's newsletter? Subscribe right away to The India Uncut Newsletter! It's free! Also check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. Episode art: ‘Asmita' by Simahina.

Live via LinkedIn at 10:30am GST Hosts: Markose Chentittha (Oort Foundation + Society X) RA George (Blockchain DXB) Theme: Unfiltered Chat - Weekly Crypto, Blockchain & AI Early impact on Bitcoin adoption. Current legal issues: Wrongful detention in Spain. Challenges and potential improvements. Interest rate reduced by 25 BPS. US economy showing resilience. Avoidance of recession. Crypto Market Reactions: Interest Down = BTC & Crypto Pump. Interest Unchanged = BTC & Crypto Pump. Interest Increase = BTC & Crypto Dump. Key Insight: Market manipulation by whales and notorious traders suspected. Bitcoin-to-Gold Ratio hits ATH of 37.3 (previously 36.7 in Nov 2021). Peter Schiff advises selling BTC for gold. Michael Saylor advises selling gold for BTC. Launched Dec. 17 on key platforms (MoonPay, UpholdInc, CoinMENA, Bitso & ArchaxEx). Raghuram Rajan joins the advisory board. U.S. Bitcoin reserve speculation ($15 Trillion market cap). Trump's vague response: “I think so.” NYSE Bell ringing and Person of the Year by Time Magazine. Close to a $4.5B financial package. Strategic move or potential setback? Riot Platform announces $500M convertible senior notes offering + $70M Bitcoin purchase. Gary Gensler's rumored resignation. Paul Atkins for SEC Chair. David Sacks as 'White House AI & Crypto Czar.' Hawk Tuah Coin dumps 90% ($400M wiped out). IG account deleted amid controversy. Tether (USDT) delistings by exchanges. Compliance deadline: Dec. 30. Daily transactions hit a record 66.9 million. PENGU launch credited for surpassing all major blockchain activity. Positive attendee feedback. Eric Trump's speech and industry outlook. Larry Fink: "Abu Dhabi will lead the world in AI & Crypto." Markose Chentitha's update on Oort Foundation & Society X. Blockchain DXB's George's updates. CEO of Boxica interview: 95% of wealth in BTC. Spartan Global Brand Ambassador panel discussion. Open-Source Solutions & Industry Collaboration: Could open source solve 90% of blockchain and AI problems? Don Tapscott addressed the question: "Does Blockchain need AI, or does AI need Blockchain?" Follow-Up:Stay tuned for more LinkedIn Live sessions by Blockchain DXB & Society X. To support this channel: https://www.patreon.com/BlockchainDXB ⚡ Buy me Coffee ☕ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.buymeacoffee.com/info36/w/6987⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⚡ Advanced Media ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.amt.tv/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⚡⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Spartan Race Trifecta⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ in Dubai https://race.spartan.com/en/race/detail/8646/overview For 20% Discount use code: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George20⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⚡ The Race Space Podcast

AI-Powered Episode Overview: This episode is entirely powered by AI using Google's Notebook LM. The AI-generated voice provides a comprehensive review of the engaging conversation between RA George from Blockchain DXB and Markose Chentittha from Oort Foundation. We strongly encourage listeners to check out the full discussion on LinkedIn Live or Spotify for deeper insights and expert commentary. The discussion began with a deep dive into Roger Ver, also known as "Bitcoin Jesus," highlighting his significant contributions to Bitcoin's early adoption. The hosts also touched on his current legal challenges, particularly allegations of wrongful detention in Spain. Early contributions to Bitcoin adoption. Current legal troubles: Alleged wrongful detention in Spain. Challenges and possible improvements discussed. Interest rate reduced by 25 BPS. US economy remains resilient, recession avoided. Crypto Market Reactions: Interest Down = BTC & Crypto Pump. Interest Unchanged = BTC & Crypto Pump. Interest Increase = BTC & Crypto Dump. Insight: Market manipulation by whales and traders suspected. Current ratio: 37.3 ounces per BTC (previously 36.7 in Nov 2021). Contrasting views: Peter Schiff advises selling BTC for gold, while Michael Saylor suggests the opposite. Launched on key platforms like MoonPay, UpholdInc, CoinMENA, Bitso & ArchaxEx. Raghuram Rajan joins the advisory board. Speculated $15 Trillion U.S. Bitcoin reserve. Trump's NYSE bell-ringing appearance and 'Person of the Year' recognition by Time Magazine. Close to securing a $4.5B financial package. Strategic move or potential setback? Riot Platform announces $500M convertible senior notes offering + $70M Bitcoin purchase. Gary Gensler's rumored resignation. Paul Atkins for SEC Chair. David Sacks as 'White House AI & Crypto Czar.' Hawk Tuah Coin dumps 90% ($400M wiped out). IG account deleted amid controversy. Tether (USDT) delistings by exchanges. Compliance deadline: Dec. 30. Daily transactions hit a record 66.9 million due to the PENGU launch. Positive attendee feedback. Eric Trump's industry insights. Larry Fink: "Abu Dhabi will lead the world in AI & Crypto." Markose Chentitha on Oort Foundation & Society X. Blockchain DXB's George shares industry updates. CEO of Boxica: 95% of wealth in BTC. Spartan Global Brand Ambassador panel discussion. Experience the full in-depth discussion by RA George and Markose Chentittha. Listen now on LinkedIn Live or Spotify for expert analysis and real-time updates on crypto, blockchain, and AI. To support this channel: https://www.patreon.com/BlockchainDXB ⚡ Buy me Coffee ☕ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.buymeacoffee.com/info36/w/6987⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⚡ Advanced Media ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.amt.tv/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⚡⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Spartan Race Trifecta⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ in Dubai https://race.spartan.com/en/race/detail/8646/overview For 20% Discount use code: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George20⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⚡ The Race Space Podcast

17th Dec: Blockchain DXB Podcast

Raghuram Rajan is an economist, a former central banker and he is credited with predicting the 2008 financial crisis. He also wrote a book about it called Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy. The book won the FT Business Book of the Year award in 2010. And those fault lines that Rajan wrote about 15 years ago, some of them are still coursing through our economy and markets. On this show, we discuss what those fault lines were, which ones still exist and if new fault lines have opened up. The shortlist for the 2024 edition of the FT and Schroders Business Book of the Year has already been announced. The winner will be revealed on December 9. To find out more visit ft.com/bookaward. RUNNING ORDER: 01:20 - Part one: predicting a financial crisis 07:12 - Part two: the fault lines threatening our economy 14:17 - Part three:  what can policymakers do? NEW EPISODES: The Investor Download is available every other Thursday and will be released at 1700 UK time. You can subscribe via Podbean or use this feed URL (https://schroders.podbean.com/feed.xml) in Apple Podcasts and other podcast players. GET IN TOUCH: mailto: Schroderspodcasts@schroders.com find us on Facebook send us a tweet: @Schroders using #investordownload READ MORE: Schroders.com/insights LISTEN TO MORE: schroders.com/theinvestordownload Important information. This information is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to adopt any investment strategy. Any reference to sectors/countries/stocks/securities are for illustrative purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument/securities or adopt any investment strategy. Any data has been sourced by us and is provided without any warranties of any kind. It should be independently verified before further publication or use. Third party data is owned or licenced by the data provider and may not be reproduced, extracted or used for any other purpose without the data provider's consent. Neither we, nor the data provider, will have any liability in connection with the third party data. Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. The views and opinions contained herein are those of individual to whom they are attributed, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other communications, strategies or funds. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall. Past Performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change. Issued by Schroder Investment Management Limited, 1 London Wall Place, London EC2Y 5AU. Registered No. 1893220 England. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

To say that India needs to create more jobs, is a downplay - what we need are 20 million jobs every year. But jobs can't be created out of the wishing well.We have resources, but not proper skills. We have opportunities, but not proper initiatives to boost on the employment elasticity. We need a shift from Tier 1 to Tier 2 cities. We need a shift of capitals. We need immigration-based jobs for our youths, and we definitely need the women workforce landscape to improve at the earliest. But, will this be enough?Check out our latest podcast where we are in a conversation with Sridhar Krishna, a senior scholar at the Takshashila Institution, to know more!  Timestamps00:00 - 00:47 - The Karnataka Job Reservation Bill04:19 - The impact on the recruiters/builders07:00 - Public Transport and Women in Karnataka 09:16 - Bangalore is not just for startups!09:27 - Government's performance: what we have done well & where can we improve? 11:19 - India needs 20 million jobs each year 12:00 - How to create jobs in India?13:16 - Annual PLF data on unemployment - truth or facade?14:12 - Have “100 million people joined the workforce” truly?14:52 - Labor productivity in India vs in the US 15:22 - Statistics on how to grow employment elasticity 16:25 - 1800 people apply for 10 vacancies in Gujarat - why? 17:23 - ILO reports on job skills and job vacancy mismatch 18:56 - Is manufacturing & services good options to transition from agriculture?20:32 - Shridhar talks about his take on Raghuram Rajan's book “Breaking the Mould”21:26 - Are PLIs unable to craft job growth?22:30 - Rebuilding big cities - a solution for employment growth?23:22 - Lavasa, Maharshtra failed - why?25:02 - Utlising AI to analyse the nature of jobs in other countries27:08 - Career Impact Bonds - What's that?33:14 - 6 pillars as proposed by the recent Eonomic Survey33:49 - Focus needs to shift from Tier 1 to Tier 2 cities 34:40 - Women workforce participation better in Bangladesh than India?39:57 - India losing significant GDP due to fewer women in the workplaceFollow Sridhar Krishna - Linkedin -   / sridharkrishna  X - https://x.com/sridhar_kri?___________________________________Hi, I am your host Siddhartha! I have been an entrepreneur from 2012-2017 building two products AddoDoc and Babygogo. After selling my company to SHEROES, I and my partner Nansi decided to start up again. But we felt unequipped in our skillset in 2018 to build a large company. We had known 0-1 journeys from our startups but lacked the experience of building 1-10 journeys. Hence was born The Neon Show (Earlier 100x Entrepreneur) to learn from founders and investors, the mindset to scale yourself and your company. This quest still keeps us excited even after 5 years and doing 200+ episodes. We welcome you to our journey to understand what goes behind building a super successful company. Every episode is done with a very selfish motive, that I and Nansi should come out as a better entrepreneur and professional after absorbing the learnings. __________________________________Visit our Website: https://neon.fund/Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theneonshoww/Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TheNeonShowwFollow us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/beneon/__________________________________Sponsor Shout OutLooking to build a differentiated tech startup with a 10X better solution? Prime is the high conviction, high support investor you need. With its fourth fund of $120M, Prime actively works with star teams to accelerate building great companies.To know more, visit https://primevp.in/

For many emerging market economies, moving from an export-oriented strategy with labor-intensive manufacturing to a more sophisticated production process was key to their development. But the world is quickly changing, and Raghuram Rajan says India need not follow that same path. In their new book, Breaking the Mold, the former Reserve Bank of India governor and co-author Rohit Lamba argue that India has lost its labor cost advantage and must focus on developing its human capital. In this podcast, IMF Asia and Pacific Department Head Krishna Srinivasan and Raghuram Rajan discuss how India might leverage its growing workforce and pivot from “brawn to brain”. Transcript: https://bit.ly/3yt3iX2 Read Krishna Srinivasan's book review in September's Finance and Development: IMF.org/fandd

University of Chicago Booth Professor Raghuram Rajan discusses his outlook and preview to the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. He spoke to Bloomberg's Scarlet Fu and Romaine Bostick. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Martin Wolf is worried about the threat autocrats pose to liberal democracies. Across the world, billions of citizens are being asked to cast their vote in elections taking place in more than 50 countries, but in many places, populist, illiberal and far-right parties are either growing in support or consolidating gains they have already made. In this episode, Martin spells out his concerns to the FT's executive opinion editor, Jonathan Derbyshire, and they discuss what Martin has gleaned from his conversations with Robert Kagan, Fiona Hill, Anne Applebaum and Raghuram Rajan. Did they ease his concerns in any way?Links: Martin Wolf column: Fascism has changed, but it is not deadFor Martin's other FT columns click hereThis episode is presented by Martin Wolf. The producer is Sandra Kanthal. Production help from Sonja Hutson. The executive producer is Manuela Saragosa and the sound engineer is Nigel Appleton. The FT's global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Across the world, billions of citizens are being asked to cast their vote in elections taking place in more than 50 countries and in many places, populist, illiberal and far-right parties are either growing in support or consolidating gains they have already made. But India, the world's biggest democracy, bucked the trend with Narendra Modi's relatively weak election victory in June. In the third of this five-part series, the FT's renowned economics commentator, Martin Wolf, and Raghuram Rajan, former governor of the Reserve Bank of India, discuss the Indian election results and inherent weaknesses of authoritarian styles of government.Links: Martin Wolf column: Fascism has changed, but it is not deadFor Martin's other FT columns click hereThis episode is presented by Martin Wolf. The producer is Sandra Kanthal. Production help from Sonja Hutson. The executive producer is Manuela Saragosa and the sound engineer is Nigel Appleton. The FT's global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

India's government has big goals for economic growth. The former Governor of the country's Reserve Bank, Raghuram Rajan, argues that India won't be able (and shouldn't try) to follow traditional methods of development. Professor Rajan, now of the the Chicago Booth School of Business, joins The Pie to discuss India's untraveled path to prosperity.

University of Chicago Booth School of Business Professor: Finance/Economist Raghuram Rajan discusses his predictions and outlook to the Fed decision happening this week. He spoke to Bloomberg's Scarlet Fu and Romaine Bostick.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It was a pleasure to welcome Raghuram Rajan back to the Alpha Exchange. Raghu is currently a distinguished professor at the Chicago Booth School of Business and is the former head of the Reserve Bank of India. With a deep understanding of the intersection of markets, the economy and policymaking, he is among the most important voices on Central Banking.With this in mind, our discussion explores his recent book “Monetary Policy and Its Unintended Consequences”, the title alone of which is entirely through provoking. Raghu shares his assessment of the tendency for policy towards increasing asymmetry – where the Fed acts as a lender of last resort during a crisis but finds itself unable to achieve normalization during non-stress periods. We talk as well about the distortions that result from forward guidance and asset purchase programs during non-emergency periods.Lastly, we talk about policy spill-overs, specifically the impact that the Fed's actions can have on emerging economies. As head of the RBI a decade ago and as India experienced the impact of Bernanke's 2013 taper tantrum, Raghu has much to say on this subset of unintended consequences. He argues that the Fed's remit will continue to target domestic growth and inflation, consideration of the international impact of policy decisions should conceivably be a part of the policymaking conversation.The second half of our discussion focused on Raghu's most recent book, “Breaking the Mold”, in which he reviews the progress and challenges in India. Here, he documents the diverging paths of India and China and makes recommendations for how India can learn from what China has done while recognizing both the constraints and opportunities associated with today's global economy. He argues that India is uniquely positioned to provide high value-added services in a digital and remote work economy.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Raghuram Rajan.

Few people are better equipped to unravel the riddle of the Indian economy than the former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, Raghuram Rajan. As the co-author (with Rohit Lamba) of the just published Breaking the Mold: India's Untraveled Path to Prosperity, Rajan lays out a strategy for Indian economic development that might allow the country to both maintain its much storied democracy and provide jobs and prosperity for its almost 1.5 billion people. While Rajan didn't use the term “third way” in our conversation, there is a sense that he's trying to navigate India between the Scylla of conventional western free market neo-liberalism and the Charybdis of the protectionism pursued by populists like Trump, Erdogen and perhaps the current Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Certainly no great fan of Modi's bureaucratic centralization, Rajan's path to prosperity lies in decentralizing economic power to its federal states. It's in the enlightened economic policies of states like Kerala, Rajan argues, that India can break the mold and become not just a prosperous society but also a model for other developing 21st century economies. Raghuram Rajan is the Katherine Dusak Miller Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago business school. He was the 23rd Governor of the Reserve Bank of India between September 2013 and September 2016. Between 2003 and 2006, Dr. Rajan was the Chief Economist and Director of Research at the International Monetary Fund. Dr. Rajan's research interests are in banking, corporate finance, and economic development. The books he has written include Breaking the Mold: Reimagining India's Economic Future with Rohit Lamba, The Third Pillar: How the State and Markets hold the Community Behind 2019 which was a finalist for the Financial Times Business Book of the Year prize and Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy, for which he was awarded the Financial Times prize for Business Book of the Year in 2010. Dr. Rajan is a member of the Group of Thirty. He was the President of the American Finance Association in 2011 and is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. In January 2003, the American Finance Association awarded Dr. Rajan the inaugural Fischer Black Prize for the best finance researcher under the age of 40. The other awards he has received include the Infosys prize for the Economic Sciences in 2012, the Deutsche Bank Prize for Financial Economics in 2013, Euromoney Central Banker Governor of the Year 2014, and Banker Magazine (FT Group) Central Bank Governor of the Year 2016. Dr. Rajan is the Chairman of the Per Jacobsson Foundation, the senior economic advisor to BDT Capital, and a managing director at Andersen Tax.Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting KEEN ON, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy show. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children.Keen On is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe

Today on the show, General David Petraeus who commanded US and coalition forces in Iraq joins Fareed to discuss what America's counterinsurgency strategy there can teach Israel in its war in Gaza. Plus, Russia's new offensive near Kharkiv and what it means for Ukraine's defenses.  Next, Raghuram Rajan, former chief of India's central bank, sits down with Fareed to discuss India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi's economic record and what India would need to do to become an economic powerhouse like China.   Finally, Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Nicholas Kristof shares some harrowing and exciting reporting stories from his new memoir, “Chasing Hope: A Reporter's Life.” They also discuss covering China from 1989 to today, and the bipartisan view in Washington that China is a great threat.  GUESTS: Gen. David Petraeus (Ret.), Raghuram Rajan (@RaghuramGRajan), Nicholas Kristof (@NickKristof)  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Breaking the Mould: India's Untraveled Path to Prosperity is a big new book by the economists Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba. The book is both a critique of India's development model as well as a manifesto for reform.Most notably, it challenges the conventional wisdom that India's primary goal should be to transform the country into a blue-collar manufacturing powerhouse. Rajan and Lamba argue that India cannot duplicate China's development model, but it has the opportunity to leapfrog by focusing higher up the value chain.To discuss the book's ideas and its policy implications, Milan is joined on the show this week by Rohit Lamba. Rohit is an economist at New York University-Abu Dhabi and will soon be joining the Economics Department at Cornell University. He's twice worked in the chief economic advisor's office in the Indian Ministry of Finance.The two discuss what the critics get right about the Indian economy, why India cannot blindly follow the Chinese model, and how India can pivot “from brawn to brain.” Plus, Rohit and Milan discuss the manufacturing versus services debate, India's inward economic turn, and what India must do to upgrade its human capital.Episode notes:1. W. Arthur Lewis, “Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour,” The Manchester School 22 (1954): 139-191.2. Rohit Lamba and Arvind Subramanian, “Dynamism with Incommensurate Development: The Distinctive Indian Model,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 34, no. 1 (2020): 3-30.3. Devesh Kapur, “Why Does the Indian State Both Fail and Succeed?" Journal of Economic Perspectives 34, no. 1 (2020): 31-54.4. Devesh Kapur, “Exit,” Seminar 677 (2015).

The whole world has a stake in India's future, and that future hinges on whether India can develop its economy and deliver for its population--now the world's largest--while staying democratic. India's economy has overtaken the United Kingdom's to become the fifth-largest in the world, but it is still only one-fifth the size of China's, and India's economic growth is too slow to provide jobs for millions of its ambitious youth. Blocking India's current path are intense global competition in low-skilled manufacturing, increasing protectionism and automation, and the country's majoritarian streak in politics. In Breaking the Mold: India's Untraveled Path to Prosperity (Princeton UP, 2024), Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba show why and how India needs to blaze a new path if it's to succeed. India diverged long ago from the standard development model, the one followed by China--from agriculture to low-skilled manufacturing, then high-skilled manufacturing and, finally, services--by leapfrogging intermediate steps. India must not turn back now. Rajan and Lamba explain how India can accelerate growth by prioritizing human capital, expanding opportunities in high-skilled services, encouraging entrepreneurship, and strengthening rather than weakening its democratic traditions. It can chart a path based on ideas and creativity even at its early stage of development. Filled with vivid examples and written with incisive candor, Breaking the Mold shows how India can break free of the stumbling blocks of the past and embrace the enormous possibilities of the future. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

The whole world has a stake in India's future, and that future hinges on whether India can develop its economy and deliver for its population--now the world's largest--while staying democratic. India's economy has overtaken the United Kingdom's to become the fifth-largest in the world, but it is still only one-fifth the size of China's, and India's economic growth is too slow to provide jobs for millions of its ambitious youth. Blocking India's current path are intense global competition in low-skilled manufacturing, increasing protectionism and automation, and the country's majoritarian streak in politics. In Breaking the Mold: India's Untraveled Path to Prosperity (Princeton UP, 2024), Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba show why and how India needs to blaze a new path if it's to succeed. India diverged long ago from the standard development model, the one followed by China--from agriculture to low-skilled manufacturing, then high-skilled manufacturing and, finally, services--by leapfrogging intermediate steps. India must not turn back now. Rajan and Lamba explain how India can accelerate growth by prioritizing human capital, expanding opportunities in high-skilled services, encouraging entrepreneurship, and strengthening rather than weakening its democratic traditions. It can chart a path based on ideas and creativity even at its early stage of development. Filled with vivid examples and written with incisive candor, Breaking the Mold shows how India can break free of the stumbling blocks of the past and embrace the enormous possibilities of the future. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/south-asian-studies

The whole world has a stake in India's future, and that future hinges on whether India can develop its economy and deliver for its population--now the world's largest--while staying democratic. India's economy has overtaken the United Kingdom's to become the fifth-largest in the world, but it is still only one-fifth the size of China's, and India's economic growth is too slow to provide jobs for millions of its ambitious youth. Blocking India's current path are intense global competition in low-skilled manufacturing, increasing protectionism and automation, and the country's majoritarian streak in politics. In Breaking the Mold: India's Untraveled Path to Prosperity (Princeton UP, 2024), Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba show why and how India needs to blaze a new path if it's to succeed. India diverged long ago from the standard development model, the one followed by China--from agriculture to low-skilled manufacturing, then high-skilled manufacturing and, finally, services--by leapfrogging intermediate steps. India must not turn back now. Rajan and Lamba explain how India can accelerate growth by prioritizing human capital, expanding opportunities in high-skilled services, encouraging entrepreneurship, and strengthening rather than weakening its democratic traditions. It can chart a path based on ideas and creativity even at its early stage of development. Filled with vivid examples and written with incisive candor, Breaking the Mold shows how India can break free of the stumbling blocks of the past and embrace the enormous possibilities of the future.

The whole world has a stake in India's future, and that future hinges on whether India can develop its economy and deliver for its population--now the world's largest--while staying democratic. India's economy has overtaken the United Kingdom's to become the fifth-largest in the world, but it is still only one-fifth the size of China's, and India's economic growth is too slow to provide jobs for millions of its ambitious youth. Blocking India's current path are intense global competition in low-skilled manufacturing, increasing protectionism and automation, and the country's majoritarian streak in politics. In Breaking the Mold: India's Untraveled Path to Prosperity (Princeton UP, 2024), Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba show why and how India needs to blaze a new path if it's to succeed. India diverged long ago from the standard development model, the one followed by China--from agriculture to low-skilled manufacturing, then high-skilled manufacturing and, finally, services--by leapfrogging intermediate steps. India must not turn back now. Rajan and Lamba explain how India can accelerate growth by prioritizing human capital, expanding opportunities in high-skilled services, encouraging entrepreneurship, and strengthening rather than weakening its democratic traditions. It can chart a path based on ideas and creativity even at its early stage of development. Filled with vivid examples and written with incisive candor, Breaking the Mold shows how India can break free of the stumbling blocks of the past and embrace the enormous possibilities of the future. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/economics

The whole world has a stake in India's future, and that future hinges on whether India can develop its economy and deliver for its population--now the world's largest--while staying democratic. India's economy has overtaken the United Kingdom's to become the fifth-largest in the world, but it is still only one-fifth the size of China's, and India's economic growth is too slow to provide jobs for millions of its ambitious youth. Blocking India's current path are intense global competition in low-skilled manufacturing, increasing protectionism and automation, and the country's majoritarian streak in politics. In Breaking the Mold: India's Untraveled Path to Prosperity (Princeton UP, 2024), Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba show why and how India needs to blaze a new path if it's to succeed. India diverged long ago from the standard development model, the one followed by China--from agriculture to low-skilled manufacturing, then high-skilled manufacturing and, finally, services--by leapfrogging intermediate steps. India must not turn back now. Rajan and Lamba explain how India can accelerate growth by prioritizing human capital, expanding opportunities in high-skilled services, encouraging entrepreneurship, and strengthening rather than weakening its democratic traditions. It can chart a path based on ideas and creativity even at its early stage of development. Filled with vivid examples and written with incisive candor, Breaking the Mold shows how India can break free of the stumbling blocks of the past and embrace the enormous possibilities of the future. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today my guest is Rohit Lamba, an assistant professor of economics at Pennsylvania State University and a visiting assistant professor of economics at New York University Abu Dhabi. We spoke about his recent book Breaking the Mould: Reimagining India's Economic Future which he has coauthored with Raghuram Rajan. We spoke about their argument to shift the focus from industrial and trade policy towards a services and education policy, how India can and should decentralize, if India can scale education and health, India's growth rate numbers, and much more.  Recorded April 19th, 2024. Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links. Timestamps (00:00:00) - Intro (00:05:21) - Zooming into Indian States (00:20:25) - Why not Decentralization? (00:26:28) - Scaling Education (00:51:14) - Educating the Global South (00:53:22) - Picking Winners and Losers (01:10:22) - India's Growth Rate (01:18:44) - Outro Connect with Ideas of India Follow us on X Follow Shruti on X Follow Rohit on X Click here for the latest Ideas of India episodes sent straight to your inbox.

This week is in conversation with A.K. Bhattacharya, the Editorial Director of the Business Standard, about India's economic reforms of the 90s through a close-up view of the many disruptions that took place in that decade!Most Iconic Finance Minister Of India?How Can Government Incentivize Billionaires To Stay?Why Couldn't India Match Singapore/China's trajectory?Banking System Scam Of 1992 EXPLAINEDWatch this fascinatingly insightful conversation about the role that the finance ministry plays in India's economic growth and how they have shaped up the lives of crores of people in India… Tune in NOW!Sponsor Shout OutLooking to build a differentiated tech startup with a 10X better solution? Prime is the high-conviction, high-support investor you need. With its fourth fund of $120M, Prime actively works with star teams to accelerate building great companies.To know more, visit https://primevp.in/!__________________________________________________________________________________________________CHAPTERS00:00 - Precap01:04 - Introducing A.K. Bhattacharya To The Neon Show!02:02 - The Role Of The Finance Ministry In India04:48 - Most Iconic Finance Minister Of India? 10:05 - Banking System Scam Of 1992 EXPLAINED16:48 - Why Demonetization In India Happened in 1978!24:29 - Balance Of Payments Crisis in The 80s!27:12 - Sanjay Gandhi's Role In Indian Political History30:59 - Was The 1991 Finance Team The Best?33:24 - Why Couldn't India Match Singapore/China's trajectory?40:05 - The History Of Taxation In India42:51 - How Can Government Incentivize Billionaires To Stay?45:17 - The Role Of The RBI52:21 - Sanjay Gandhi's Role In Maruti's Inception!1:00:03 - P. Chidambaram & Pranab Mukherjee As Finance Ministers1:04:01 - Issues Of Duopoly In The Telecom Industry 1:10:15 - How Aspirations Have Changed India's Rate Of Growth

J-1 en Inde pour les élections législatives. Le BJP, le parti du Premier ministre Narendra Modi, est donné favori en raison de son excellent bilan économique. Un succès pourtant contesté, y compris dans les milieux d'affaires. L'Inde deviendra la troisième puissance mondiale d'ici à 2029, c'est-à-dire avant la fin de son prochain mandat, promet Narendra Modi, avec de solides arguments en sa faveur. La croissance est vigoureuse depuis plusieurs années, 6,8% pour cette année, selon les prévisions du FMI. Les grands chantiers lancés depuis son arrivée au pouvoir ont nettement amélioré le quotidien des Indiens et ont dopé l'activité économique. Et enfin, le pays bénéficie aujourd'hui des investissements des multinationales quittant la Chine depuis le Covid. Le BJP et Narendra Modi en font des tonnes sur cette trajectoire flatteuse. En réalité, dénonce un ancien gouverneur de la Banque centrale, l'Inde est encore et restera un pays pauvre.Un enrichissement très relatifCette croissance ultra-rapide et solide est trop faible pour améliorer le niveau de vie des 1,4 milliard d'habitants. Le revenu par habitant n'est que de 2 600 dollars par an. C'est le plus bas des Brics, comme du G20, renvoyant l'Inde à la 139e place du classement mondial en termes de richesse par habitant.Depuis dix ans, le nombre de milliardaires a triplé, mais le revenu de l'immense majorité des Indiens stagne. Avec si peu de redistribution, on voit mal comment le marché intérieur peut entretenir la croissance. Le symptôme le plus flagrant de cette pauvreté est le chômage à 8% – le taux d'activité est très faible, les femmes sont quasiment absentes du marché du travail. La plupart des Indiens vivotent grâce au secteur informel, à des années-lumière de la prospérité de la classe moyenne employée dans les services.Pas de miracle chinois à l'horizonL'ouverture des usines à vocation exportatrice, comme celle d'Apple pour fabriquer des iPhone, est un bienfait pour l'industrie, et donc, pour l'emploi indien. Mais il ne faut pas non plus en exagérer les effets. Les investisseurs étrangers pensent diversification, ils ne veulent plus dépendre d'un seul pays, mais l'Inde ne bénéficie que d'une petite partie de ce vaste mouvement de relocalisation.Le soutien à la tech, affiché comme une priorité par le gouvernement, est bon en soi, explique un autre ancien gouverneur de la Banque centrale, Raghuram Rajan, lui aussi très critique envers le récit très romancé des succès économiques du Premier ministre indien. Mais, selon lui, c'est insuffisant pour donner du travail à tous. Il faut, recommande-t-il, regarder du côté des industries traditionnelles du pays et améliorer l'environnement des investissements. Un domaine où beaucoup reste à faire, estiment les entrepreneurs indiens.Certains préfèrent aller à Singapour pour monter une start-up, faute de confiance dans l'environnement de leur pays. L'arbitraire politique, les mesures protectionnistes encore trop nombreuses dans l'industrie, la faiblesse du marché intérieur sont parmi les repoussoirs les plus fréquemment identifiés, y compris parmi les grandes dynasties économiques totalement acquises à Narendra Damodardas Modi.À lire aussiÉlections législatives en Inde: grandeur et déclin de la plus grande démocratie du monde

This episode of The Pie features a panel discussion following a talk from Raghuram Rajan, the Katherine Dusak Miller Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at Chicago Booth, about his book "Monetary Policy and Its Unintended Consequences." The panel included Charles Evans, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and was moderated by Randall Kroszner, the Norman R. Bobins Professor of Economics at Chicago Booth and former Governor of the Federal Reserve System.

Prediction Time—RSJIn a year when countries as diverse as India, the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, Taiwan, Pakistan and Palau go for their elections, it is tempting to go for an overarching theme for the year while looking ahead. Unfortunately, like these aforementioned elections and the many others that will see about 50 per cent of the human population exercise their democratic choice, there seems to be only a messy mix of political signals emerging from them. Illiberal forces are rising in some places, and autocrats are rubber-stamping their authority in others. Democracy is blooming afresh in a few, while the trends of deglobalisation and closed borders are resonating among others. Of course, there are the wars old and new and, maybe, a few more round the corner to complicate any attempt at a broad narrative for the world. To add to the woes of anyone trying to write a piece like this, the economic macros globally look volatile and inchoate. There is increasing talk of a soft landing of the US economy while the EU and the UK stare at another lost year. Depending on who you speak to, China has either put its economic issues behind it and is ready to charge back with its investment in future technologies like AI, EVs and hi-tech manufacturing, or it is at the “Japan moment” of the late 80s. Japan, on the other hand, is itself having a brief moment of revival, and no one knows if it will have legs or if it is yet another false dawn.It is foolhardy to purvey macro forecasts in this environment. But then this newsletter won't write itself. No? So, I guess the best course then is to make more specific predictions instead of taking big swings and hoping those come true while the macros swing wildly. This will also satisfy Pranay's pet peeve about generic predictions that I mentioned in the last newsletter. So, let me get going with 10 somewhat specific predictions for next year.* President Biden will decide sometime in early February that he cannot lead the Democratic Party to power in the 2024 elections. He will opt out of the race and give possibly the most well-backed Democrat, financially and otherwise, a really short window of four months to clinch the nomination. In a way, this will be the best option for his party. If he continued to run for the 2024 elections, it would have been apparent to many in the electorate that they are risking a President who won't last the full term. If he had opted out earlier, the long-drawn primary process would have led to intense infighting among the many factions of the party, eventually leading to fratricide or a Trump-like populist to emerge perhaps. A narrow window will allow the Party to back an establishment figure and reduce the fraternal bloodletting. Who will emerge from this is anyone's guess. But whoever it might be, if (and it is a big if) they have to come up against Trump, they will lose. To me, the only way Trump doesn't become the next President is if he isn't on the ballot. And the only way that looks possible is if he loses his legal battles. Otherwise, you will see a second Trump term which will be worse than the first one. * There's way too much confidence about the Fed having piloted a ‘safe landing' for the US economy despite the many odds that were stacked against it. I think this is fundamentally misplaced. The fiscal deficit is unsustainable, and much of the soft landing is thanks to it. The GDP growth has been supported by an almost doubling of the federal fiscal deficit. This won't last. The higher rates that haven't yet led to any real string of bankruptcies or asset bubble collapses will begin to make an impact. The geopolitical risks that have only been aggravated in the last 12 months and the increasing protectionism worldwide will make it difficult to sustain growth at 2023 levels. My view is that the real landing will be in 2024, and it won't be soft.* China will get more adventurous geopolitically as it weakens economically. Look, the property market crisis is real in China and given the influence it wields on its economy, it is difficult to see any return to the ‘normal' 8 per cent growth anytime soon. The local government finances will worsen, and there is a real possibility of a few of them defaulting. There will be more fiscal support to prop up the numbers and more packages for sectors in stress. Foreign inflow will continue to be anaemic, though it won't be negative, as it turned out late last year. The Chinese customers' long-awaited consumption spree isn't coming in 2024. All in all, China will stutter while still wowing the world with its progress in tech.* BJP will come back to power, but it will fall a bit short of 300 seats. This will surprise many, considering the continued electoral success of its machinery and all the Ram Mandir ballast it plans for itself from this month onwards. There are a couple of reasons for it, largely driven by electoral arithmetic across the states where it did very well in 2019 and where a repeat showing will be difficult. Also, the sense of complacency about winning it hands down will mean a letup in the door-to-door mobilisation model that it has perfected. All of this will mean a decline in 30-40 seats across the board. The new Modi cabinet will be a surprise with new Finance and Defence ministers and a whole host of new faces as it goes for a generational change in leadership.* The somewhat surprising trend of record US deficit going hand-in-hand with the relatively strong showing of the dollar in the past two years will eventually come to a face-off. And my guess is 2024 is when the dollar will blink. As other emerging economies start to trade in currencies other than dollars - who wants to risk more exposure to the dollar? - and its economy doesn't have a soft landing like I predict, US dollar will be hit. My guess is that 2024 will be the first year of a 3-4-year dollar down cycle. In the next year, I predict the dollar to fall by 10 per cent against most world currencies. This might not hold with India because we are a bit of a unique case. But a dollar slide looks inevitable to me.* I had predicted a more aggressive anti-trust stance and significant moves against Big Tech by the FTC. It didn't pan out. So, I will repeat the prediction. Lina Khan, the FTC Commissioner, has a nine-month window to go after them, after which it isn't certain she will continue to be in her post. I predict a big scalp during this time, which will then be legally challenged. But expect a tough couple of quarters as she and her team do their best to leave a mark for the future.* The Indian economy will continue its trend of surprising on the upside, though I think global headwinds will temper the overall growth. I expect a 6.5 per cent growth with the inflation at the 4.5 per cent mark through the year. The much-awaited capex cycle will not be broad-based and will show up in select sectors led by large Indian conglomerates or global platform players. I expect FII inflow to be among the lowest in many years in 2024, and much of the equity market will be buoyed by domestic fund inflow into the market. The Nifty will remain flat or be up 5 per cent because of global weakness and the relative overvaluation seen already.* The Israel-Hamas war will end faster than people think. Maybe by April. Not because there will be some solution agreed between the parties. There's nobody to fight any more in Giza. The Hezbollah won't get involved, and the Houthi insurgency will be a mere storm in the teacup. On the other hand, the Ukraine war will continue with no real end in sight during the year. A Trump (or Republican government) in 2025 will likely stop funding the war, and that will pressure Ukraine to negotiate with Putin. But that's for 2025.* Two specific corporate predictions: One, AI will continue to impress us with its capabilities without making a dent on real business. So expect to be surprised by a best seller written by an unknown author that will later revealed to be an AI-trained algorithm. Or a music album, even. There will be many conferences and papers, but AI's wider impact will still be distant in 2025. Two, I think Novo Nordisk will be well on its way to becoming the most valued company in the world in 2024. It might become the most valued in Europe during the year itself as it will struggle to produce enough of its weight loss drugs to keep up with demand.* I forecast one of two contentious pieces of legislation will come into play after the elections are over. We will see a real move on either the Uniform Civil Code or on one-nation one-election (ONOE) at the back end of the year. These are issues close to this government; they will get these going right after the elections.That's that, then. We will see how they go during the year.India Policy Watch: The Services vs Manufacturing DebateInsights on current policy issues in India— Pranay KotasthaneBreaking the Mould: Reimagining India's Economic Future, a book by economists Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba, has started a much-needed discussion on India's future growth trajectory. The authors challenge the dominant narrative that India should imitate the manufacturing-led growth strategy followed by the East Asian countries. They instead point to India's comparative advantage in low-end and high-end services, making a case for a policy reprioritisation to double down on these strengths. The book argues that replicating China's manufacturing success is neither possible nor desirable. Not possible because manufacturing supply chains are shortening due to increased protectionism and higher rates of automation, making the conditions far more difficult than what China faced. Moreover, China hasn't gone away; it remains a formidable competitor in manufacturing. Replicating that success might not even be desirable, they contend, as the value added in a product's manufacturing stage is dwarfed by the value captured in the upstream R&D stage and the downstream services (branding, marketing, content production, etc.) stage. And hence, they are against the kind of subsidies on offer for electronics and chip manufacturing assembly. The Micron chip assembly plant is a particular thorn in their eye because it will cost Indians $2 billion and produce a mere 5000 direct jobs with no R&D spillover. They argue that services and Services for manufacturing are the sweet spot for India to focus on. The money splurged on manufacturing and assembly should be ploughed back into education and health, priming India's human capital for global success.In sharp contrast, international trade economist Devashish Mitra makes the case that low-end export-led manufacturing (such as in textile, apparel, and leather) is the only way out for India. In his book review for the Economic Times, Mitra writes:“India is a labour-abundant economy. This abundance is in low-skilled labour, given that almost 80% of its working-age population does not have even a higher secondary education, with only an eighth of the working-age population having studied beyond high school. While India adds 8-10 million people to its labour force annually, roughly 2 million are college-educated or beyond. There is also a wide variation in the quality of degree programmes across India, most of which cannot impart marketable skills. Thus, high-skilled workers are scarce.Standard international trade theory tells us that an economy abundant in low-skilled labour, when open to international trade, will specialise in low-skilled labour-intensive production activities, which are the ones in which such a country has its inherent comparative advantage. Furthermore, India's technology-driven comparative advantage is also expected to be in low-end manufacturing activities, as those would be the ones in which India's productivity disadvantage relative to advanced economies would be the least, for example, textiles, apparel and footwear. Thus, high-skill specialisation for India, as envisioned by Rajan and Lamba, would have to defy standard international trade theory.”Mitra also points out that the government should prioritise solving the unemployment problem, the only way around which is low-end manufacturing because IT and IT services have historically had comparatively low levels of employment growth.Reading these two perspectives over the past few days has been rewarding. This is precisely the debate that needs the attention of our policymaking elite. At this stage, I have three initial observations.One, the services vs manufacturing is a false binary. Both views are actually quite similar in their essence because they both advocate capitalising on India's comparative advantages. That advantage lies in high-end services such as chip design and in low-end manufacturing such as textiles and footwear. There is no need to choose just one of them. Success in both areas needs the same ingredients—eliminate self-defeating policies, improve skilling, pass trade-friendly reforms, and invest in health and education.Two, I feel the criticism of low-end chip and electronics assembly misses an important consideration. If chips are the building blocks of the Information Age, it makes sense for India to begin the journey at the lower end of the chip manufacturing supply chain and climb up that ladder over two decades or so. Jobs generated per rupee of money spent is not the only criterion that should motivate economic decision-making. For example, India's nuclear energy sector is not evaluated primarily on the number of jobs it creates. Similarly, the primary goal of building the intellectual and manufacturing capability for making chips is to reduce critical vulnerabilities in the future. India can pursue the twin goals of doubling down on comparative advantages and reducing vulnerabilities simultaneously. In any case, attracting a single 65-nanometre specialised fab (which would cost around ₹10,000 crores) doesn't come at the expense of a better university education system. India can do both. Third, the book brilliantly emphasises that the services sector needs a lot more policy focus. Trade economists propose that we are heading towards a future where manufacturing supply chains will become shorter (because of protectionism and China-related fears) while services supply chains will become longer (because of better technology). This implies that services as a percentage of global trade will only rise. When that happens, nation-states will start imposing trade barriers for services, too. So, the Indian government needs to champion trade frameworks that bring down services trade costs. An analogous case is that of the Information Technology Agreement (ITA) of the WTO. Signed in the nineties, the ITA substantially brought down tariffs on information technology goods and their intermediate products. This move immensely benefited multinational companies and consumers worldwide, including in India. Similarly, it's time for India to champion a Global Services Trade Agreement that lowers barriers that Indian service providers face in participating in global trade. It also becomes clear why data localisation policies that hamper services exports will have a disproportionately negative impact on India's economic future. Finally, do read both the book and Devashish Mitra's paper linked in the HomeWork section. And yes, check out our Puliyabaazi with Rohit Lamba, which discusses some of these themes.PolicyWTF: How Pro-Business Protectionism Hurts Indian WomenThis section looks at egregious public policies. Policies that make you go: WTF, Did that really happen?— Pranay KotasthaneBy now, it's widely known that Bangladesh has eaten away at India's share in textile and apparel exports. This industry is labour-intensive and employs a significant proportion of women in the formal labour force—46% of all Indian women in the manufacturing sector are employed by apparel and textile industries taken together. Hence, it's important to diagnose the reason for India's decline. As with policy success, policy failure can also have multiple causes. Bangladeshi exports received preferential treatment in the West as part of the latter's policy to help poorer countries. This is one important reason that helped Bangladesh. However, this reason alone doesn't explain India's decline in fibre production. It turns out that the reason is our favourite villain: pro-business protectionism. I learned about this causal linkage from an excellent 2022 paper, Reigniting the Manmade Clothing Sector in India, by Abhishek Anand and Naveen Joseph Thomas.This is how I understood the story that Anand and Joseph narrate. India has been losing global market share in textiles and apparel since 2011 to Bangladesh and Vietnam. The global demand for artificial fabric-based cloth (such as polyester) is far higher than that for natural fabric-based cloth (such as cotton) for cost and durability reasons. Thus, India's underperformance is largely due to a decline in its exports in the artificial fibre segment. And why is that the case? The most important input for the polyester fabric is a chemical called Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA). The villain enters the scene. In October 2013, the two major domestic producers of PTA (Reliance Industries Ltd. and Mitsubishi Chemical Corporation India Ltd.) petitioned the government to impose anti-dumping duties on imported PTA. The government agreed. The anti-dumping duties were supposed to remain in force for six months. But they were kept in force for over six years! To make matters worse, the government imposed additional import tariffs on PTA in 2018 as part of its atmanirbharta driveoverdrive. This rise in PTA costs had a cascading effect on the downstream fibre-making and apparel industries, making their products costly even as Bangladesh continued enjoying preferential tariff treatment in the EU. Vietnam benefited from trade agreements with Australia, Canada, the EU, and also the RCEP. The productivity of India's textile sector declined, and many potential jobs vanished in thin air, disproportionately impacting women.There's an even uglier face to this fiasco. While large sections of Indians lost out, the position of a select few protected businesses improved. Vertically integrated firms with a presence in the entire supply chain from PTA to polyester yarn, and finally, apparel, benefited immensely as their competitors had to pay higher rates for the imported PTA. Protected from the cost of imports due to their in-house PTA production capabilities, these companies cornered a bigger domestic market share. Notably, their lower productivity means that even these protected firms can't compete in the global market. This a canonical example of how pro-business policies hurt markets and people. Even though the government dropped the anti-dumping duties on PLA in 2020 and started a Production-linked Incentive (PLI) for textiles, it simultaneously increased import duties for the downstream polyester to now protect domestic yarn producers from foreign competition! Talk about learning from past mistakes. PolicyWTF indeed.In any case, do read the entire paper. It's written lucidly, without the jargon and the scary Greek alphabet.HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters* [Article] Martin Wolf has an excellent column in the Financial Times on liberalism and its discontents. It cites the Inglehart-Welzel Cultural Map to argue that even if there is no ‘clash of civilisations', there seems to be a ‘divergence of civilisations' on freedom-related questions. As an aside, I observed that there is no data for India in the seventh round of the World Values Survey, which covers the period 2017-21. Does any reader know why? Is it a story similar to India pulling out of the PISA rankings? * [Video] This is a good conversation on Devashish Mitra's paper Manufacturing-fed, Export-led Growth for Gainful Employment and Skill Creation. The presentation has no scary equations, and the discussion is insightful. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com

क्या भारत चीन के मैन्युफैक्चरिंग मॉडल की नकल करके विकास कर पायेगा? क्या भारत अपनी जनसंख्या और भारत की सर्विस सेक्टर में बढ़त का फायदा उठाकर एक बेहतर विकास का रास्ता खोज सकता है? इसी विषय पर अर्थशास्त्री रोहित लाम्बा और रघुराम राजन की नयी किताब ‘ब्रेकिंग थी मोल्ड' पर विस्तार में चर्चा।  What should be India's strategy so that it can grow rich before it grows old? Is the path to India's success through state-subsidised manufacturing or through a services driven model? This week on Puliyabaazi, we dive into these questions with economist Rohit Lamba in a discussion on his new book “Breaking the Mould” co-authored with Raghuram Rajan. Listen in and share your thoughts with us.  More Reading: Breaking the Mould by Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba https://amzn.eu/d/e9EiOUJ National Education Policy 2020 https://www.education.gov.in/sites/upload_files/mhrd/files/NEP_Final_English_0.pdf On Micron plant being built with government subsidies https://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/micron-plant-groundbreaking-on-saturday-mos-chandrasekhar/article67333707.ece *****   related Puliyabaazi   ***** आर्थिक सुधारों की कहानी मोंटेक सिंह अहलूवालिया की ज़ुबानी। Backstage with Montek Singh Ahluwalia https://puliyabaazi.in/episode/aarthik-sudhaaro-kii-khaanii-mottek-sih-ahluuvaaliyaa-kii-jubaanii-backstage-with-montek-singh-ahluwalia   भारत: एक भूजल सभ्यता। India: A Groundwater Civilisation. https://puliyabaazi.in/episode/bhaart-ek-bhuujl-sbhytaa-india-a-groundwater-civilisation ***************** Website: https://puliyabaazi.in Write to us at puliyabaazi@gmail.com  Hosts: @saurabhchandra @pranaykotas @thescribblebee    Puliyabaazi is on these platforms: Twitter: @puliyabaazi  Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/puliyabaazi/ Subscribe & listen to the podcast on iTunes, Google Podcasts, Castbox, AudioBoom, YouTube, Spotify or any other podcast app.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Order His Book - Breaking the Mould : Reimagining India's Economic Future (in English) Here: https://amzn.eu/d/ce8VxsyOrder His Book - Breaking the Mould : Reimagining India's Economic Future (in Hindi) Here: https://amzn.eu/d/bvb1Ree---------------Smell good, feel confident. Use my code Raj10 to get additional 10% off all Blanko perfumes: https://hi.switchy.io/BlankoxRaj--------------Subscribe To Our Other YouTube Channels:-https://www.youtube.com/@rajshamaniclipshttps://www.youtube.com/@RajShamani.Shorts-----------------In today's episode of Figuring Out, we have Raghuram Rajan in conversation with Raj Shamani. He is an Indian Economist and has served India as 23rd Governor of RBI. Currently, he is serving as Vice- Chairman at the Bank for International Settlements. This episode is level apart from all the other podcasts of Figuring Out, because we had one of the top Indian Personality who has in-depth knowledge of India and gave us answers to most burning questions of Indians. In this episode, we talked about what is the role of RBI Governor, what's the actual reason behind inflation, how to keep it under control and why 2000 rupee notes were banned. He also shared his views on P.M Modi and Manmohan Singh. We also talked about his new book ‘Breaking the Mould' and discussed my favourite chapter from that book. We then discussed the India Canada controversy and his views on it. I asked him which are the three countries according to him that could be at the top in the coming years and the countries he named were something I never expected but as he explained, everything made sense.Towards the end I asked him what did America and China do right and become so successful and what is India doing wrong to not reach where it should have reached by now. We also talked about how much an RBI Governor earns on an average and this answer will shock you for sure! We ended with discussing 3 financial tips that every young India should know and follow. This episode is a gold-mine of knowledge for every Indian. If you love this episode, then don't forget to subscribe to our channel, we come up with new episodes every Wednesday and Saturday.Follow Dr. Raghuram Rajan Here:LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/raghuram-rajan----------

After discussing the trajectory of China's economy earlier this year, Luigi and Bethany turn their attention to the future of another global economic behemoth: India. Joining them is renowned Indian economist Raghuram Rajan, who has a brand-new book out this week, "Breaking the Mould: Reimagining India's Economic Future" (co-authored with Rohit Lamba).In "Breaking the Mould," Rajan and Lamba make the controversial and counterintuitive argument that India should follow an economic development path that is based not on manufacturing, as China has done, but rather on services. In this conversation, we discuss why India's strengths play to services-based development, how India can deal with the economic and educational inequality created by its past, how Western business should engage with India, and why democracy is critical to India's future economic success.We think his perspectives are important for Indian citizens and policymakers, but also for global citizens and policymakers given the critical role India will play in shaping the world of the future. 

What were the deep causes of the global financial crisis and great recession? Has unconventional monetary policy in the wake of the crisis done more harm than good? And should monetary policy target financial stability? I discuss these questions and more with Indian economist and Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago Raghuram Rajan. Raghuram Rajan was chief economist at the IMF from 2003 to 2006, and from 2013 to 2016 he was Governor of the Reserve Bank of India. As RBI Governor, he notably introduced India's inflation-targeting scheme, among many other achievements. Full transcript available at: josephnoelwalker.com/151-raghuram-rajanSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In future we're going to have to cope with a more volatile climate, but how can we increase the resilience of the most vulnerable communities? An analysis of droughts in the US in the 1950s shows how the financial sector can help communities to adapt to large climate shocks – and what happens when credit is not available. Raghuram Rajan and Rodney Ramcharan talk to Tim Phillips.

Kopi Time hits 100 episodes! Raghuram Rajan, Professor at the University of Chicago, former Governor, Reserve Bank of India (2013-16), former IMF Chief Economist (2003-06), returns to our podcast to talk about the risks building up in global finance and economy. We begin with duration mismatch risks causing a rise in vulnerability among banks and nonbank financial institutions in the US. Is this an inevitable result of the exceptional monetary accommodation of the past decade and a half, followed by some tightening? Why haven't post-GFC regulations stemmed such risks from materialising? What are the indicators to watch going forward, and what can policy makers do at this point? What about the entire edifice of inflation targeting, and where do emerging market economies fit into all this? While this discussion focuses largely on financial sector stress and central banking, Professor Rajan also weighs in on the issue of sovereign debt restructuring that is badly needed for a number of developing countries, with critical roles to be played by creditor nations and multilateral organisations. Very few thinkers have been as prescient as Raghuram Rajan in capturing the fault lines in modern finance; it was a privilege to have him on the show in such momentous times.   See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Recommend this show by sharing the link: pod.link/2Pages For one of Marcella's significant birthdays, we went to the Fogo Island Inn, an extraordinary building on an island off the East Coast of Canada. More than just an extraordinary building, being there is an extraordinary experience - a hotel built into the rock of the island, and into the roots of the community. I've stayed at more than my fair share of hotels in my time, but the Fogo Island Inn is the first and only one that comes with a mission to save the world.  Zita Cobb is the founder and CEO of Shorefast, a charity organization that, through business, preserves culture, sustainability, and economic well-being of local communities. These aims are evident in her additional role as the innkeeper of the aforementioned Fogo Island Inn. Get‌ ‌book‌ ‌links‌ ‌and‌ ‌resources‌ ‌at‌ https://www.mbs.works/2-pages-podcast/  Zita reads two pages from ‘The Third Pillar' by Raghuram Rajan. [reading begins at 14:40]   Hear us discuss:  How to start a movement: “Communities aren't problems; they're assets.” [20:33] | Risk and resilience in community building. [25:30] | The balance between playing the long game and the urgency for progress: “We have to survive the present to get to the future.” [28:46] | The importance of dignity. [30:49] | How to maintain your optimism. [33:00] | Finding the right people to make change happen. [35:28] | Embodied communities: “We only know who we are in relation to each other.” [37:50] | Being the one to reach out and say hello. [40:20]

David Malpass, World Bank President, says the developing world is under "giant pressure" from debt. Gita Gopinath, IMF First Deputy Managing Director, says the balance of risks facing the world economy remain tilted to the downside. Paolo Gentiloni, EU Commissioner for Economy, says Europe is on track to rebalance China trade. Tobias Adrian, IMF Director of Monetary and Capital Markets, says there's certainly evidence in the data of some contraction in lending. Raghuram Rajan, Chicago Booth Professor of Finance, Former IMF Chief Economist & Former Reserve Bank of India Governor, says longer-term growth "doesn't look good." See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Several questions continue to swirl around the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and its larger implications. In this special episode, Chicago Booth's Raghuram Rajan – former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India and IMF Chief Economist – joins Bethany and Luigi to explore the risks in the financial system and possible solutions.Rajan discusses a paper he presented (with NYU Professor Viral Acharya) at the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole conference in 2022, arguing that the Fed's liquidity provision left the financial sector more sensitive to shocks, and suggesting that the expansion and shrinkage of central bank balance sheets involves tradeoffs between monetary policy and financial stability. Together with the hosts, Rajan discusses the path forward on inflation, given economic and political pressures, and his recommendations on how to manage risks and tradeoffs.Link to the advertised Chicago Booth Review podcast:https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/podcast?source=cbr-sn-cap-camp:podcast23-20230320Check out ProMarket's ongoing coverage of the recent banking turmoil, including a summary of Raghuram Rajan's paper and new research by Luigi, referenced towards the end of the episode, on the new dangers of ‘bank walks.'

It was only in Episode 240 that we discussed the coming banking collapse and what you needed to know about it. Not even two weeks later we have the second-largest bank failure in US history. My message...don't let this corrupt, dishonest, fascist money system steal everything from you! Don't be a victim! You have the power to take action. Join me today as we dig into this a bit and try to apply it to what is fast approaching. Aaron Klein, senior fellow in economic studies at The Brookings Institute, Raghuram Rajan, professor of finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, and David Bahnsen, founder, and chief investment officer of the Bahnsen Group, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the Fed's response to the SVB fallout, bank market risk, and the contagion effect from SVB. For access to live and exclusive videos from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO: https://cnb.cx/2NGeIvi Silicon Valley Bank: What experts think of US regulators response to the fallout - YouTube The Bear Traps Report founder Larry McDonald argues current market conditions 'guarantee' a recession. #FOXBusiness Expert issues 'bloodcurdling' warning over SVB collapse - YouTube President Joe Biden speaks on banking following the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, reassuring customers they will have access to their money. https://abcn.ws/42bZVxI President Biden reassures Americans that ‘our banking system is safe,' in wake of big bank failures - YouTube --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/seth-martin0/message

In this episode, all three stories are about the economy. First, Indian Express' Udit Misra talks about what the ‘Hindu rate of growth' is, and why Raghuram Rajan said that India is “dangerously close” to it.Next, Indian Express' Harish Damodaran tells us what the latest government data reveals about the extent of India's structural transformation (08:58).And in the end, Indian Express' Anonna Dutt tells us about the government's plan to boost medical tourism, and what experts say should be done about it (17:18).Hosted, produced and scripted by Shashank BhargavaEdited and mixed by Suresh Pawar

After former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan warned India is ‘dangerously close' to the Hindu rate of growth, ThePrint Editor-in-Chief Shekhar Gupta explores patterns within economic data over 6 decades to discover a growth-politics link. In episode 1186 of ‘Cut the Clutter'. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GDP growth (annual %) - India : https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=IN --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Iron Lady's rethink: Martyr, patriot, reformer? : https://theprint.in/national-interest/iron-ladys-rethink/8773/ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Shekhar Gupta's National Interest column: https://theprint.in/national-interest/it-isnt-the-economy-genius-india-proves-it-by-voting-for-modi-again-and-again/633329/  --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Shekhar Gupta's National Interest video column : https://youtu.be/EfGllL9IW94 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Nobel prize winning economist Dr. Milton Friedman, said the business of a business  is making money - but within the acceptable social norms. Dr. Raghuram Rajan, Katherine Dusak Miller Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at Chicago Booth School and he was the 23rd Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, looks into how “social norms” have changed and how the businesses need to adapt to adopt sustainable practices. May it be their impact on the planet, how they treat their employees and or make their products. He talks about how there needs to be regulations to guide and help the corporations to achieve these goals.Further, with countries setting goals for netzero, how can we actually have a plan that is accountable and works. Dr. Rajan proposes a global incentive scheme to reduce carbon emissions. On April 19th, 2022 he presented this solution to The Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action that required countries who exceed the per capita global country average for carbon emissions, estimated at 5 tons, will pay to a global carbon incentive fund. He calls this payment Global Carbon Incentives (GCI). He further explains - “this annual payment would be calculated by multiplying the excess emissions per capita by the country's population and a dollar amount called the Global Carbon Incentive. So if the country's population is 30 million, its per capita emission in 17 tons, and the GCI is set at $10, it would pay $30 million*(17-5)*10= $3.6 billion. Countries below the global per capita average would receive a payout commensurate with their “under-emission”.This fund could be managed by a quasi government agency like the World Bank. Mindful Businesses is one of the first media outlets to share Dr. Rajan's solution. Listen to it in our latest episode.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raghuram_Rajanhttps://mindfulbusinessespodcast.com/Mentions:Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action.Angad Daryani - Founder - PraanRam Palaniappan - Founder of Earnin www.instagram.com/mindful_businesses_podcast www.facebook.com/Mindfulbusinesses #raghuramrajan, #globalcarbonincentive, #carbonemmissions, #greenhousegases, #SDGs

“My fear is that we are sleepwalking into this world. But hey, here is Davos! Wake up! Do the right thing!” That's the rallying cry of Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, imploring the global elite at this week's World Economic Forum to be vigilant as an almost unrivaled list of perils weighs on the world's leaders. Recession looks set to sweep across the globe, nations are leaning more heavily on coal amid tight energy supplies and the cost of servicing debt is soaring. Getting things wrong, Georgieva says, means dragging the “world into a place where we'll be all poorer and we would be less secure.” In this week's episode of the Stephanomics podcast, host Stephanie Flanders chats with a star-studded list of international economists, finance ministers and corporate chieftains from Davos, Switzerland. Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of the IMF, explains why finance ministers and central bankers are caught in an almost impossible dilemma: High inflation requires central bankers to raise interest rates to cool the economy, even as governments spend more to help consumers hurting from soaring energy and food costs. Longer term, real interest rates may stay high unless countries can get more targeted with their relief programs, instead of spreading assistance universally, argues Raghuram Rajan, a finance professor at the University of Chicago and former governor of the Reserve Bank of India. The US overspent during the pandemic, partly because “every constituency got a share of the spending simply because they couldn't make choices,” Rajan says. Next, Flanders has a decidedly more upbeat chat with Nandan Nilekani, chairman of Indian tech giant Infosys Ltd. With news that China's population has declined for the first time in decades, India is set to become the world's most populous country. What's more, Nilekani sees the country benefiting from manufacturers seeking an alternative to China, spooked by the latter nation's repeated factory shutdowns amid its Covid-zero policy. Per capita incomes may grow from $3,000 now to $15,000 in the next 25 years, and “that's much more than a middle-income country,” Nilekani says. Finally, Nela Richardson, chief economist at US-based payroll and business outsourcing firm Automatic Data Processing Inc., says real wages have declined across the world recently, even if nominal wage gains have created a myth that workers are “in the driver's seat.” Businesses would benefit from paying workers a living wage, which despite the apparent expense actually results in better productivity and lowers costs, Richardson tells Flanders. “Will inflation moderate enough and wages stay solid enough that workers actually benefit from lower inflation? We don't know that yet,” Richardson says.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A perfect example in Pappunomics was Rahul Gandhi's interview of Raghuram Rajan, who looked so uncomfortable at the non-economic questions that he ended up contradicting favourite themes of Rahul Gandhi, including his pet theme of 'employment'. Vijay Sardana is with Sanjay Dixit to discuss the funny economics of the Congress Princeling.

Michael and Mark take a break today for the Thanksgiving holiday, and welcome Jack Farley from Forward Guidance onto the podcast for a special cross-over episode. This episode from Forward Guidance is with William White, senior fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Federal Reserve. They discuss why economic forecasts are so often wrong, how the world can escape the “debt trap,” and how central bankers face a trade-off between price stability (low inflation) and financial stability. William White's work can be found here: https://williamwhite.ca/ Joseph Wang's writings can be found here: https://fedguy.com/ -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj __ Academic papers referenced: "Where Has All the Liquidity Gone?" by Raghuram Rajan and Viral Acharya: https://rb.gy/n47fah "Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)" by Jeremy Rudd: https://rb.gy/4wjzx8 "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic" by Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace: https://rb.gy/53kikq William White's recent presentation on the future of policy modelling: https://rb.gy/robwk2 -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_the_margin, you'll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can't-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:09) Looking Back At 2022 (04:20) Quantitative Tightening (QT) is Causing Disruptions (11:55) "The Central Bankers Have Made A Profound Ontological Error" (23:17) Does Fed Chair Jay Powell Pay Attention To Economic Models? (25:25) Algorand Ad (27:09) If Inflation Is Supply-Side Driven, What Should Central Bankers Do? (40:43) The Debt Trap (46:04) Powell Is Not Worried About a Recession - Is This A Mistake? (54:39) Getting Out Of The Debt Trap (58:36) The Fed Has Lost A Lot Of Money (01:04:22) A Global Economic Slowdown is Here (01:09:52) Crypto Contagion and the Fall of FTX -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On the Margin or Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan's latest statement that ‘the world cannot afford India to follow China's path of export-led growth in manufacturing' — at the IMF-World Bank annual meet has drawn sharp reactions. In episode 1,098 of 'Cut the Clutter', ThePrint Editor-in-Chief Shekhar Gupta decodes Rajan's full speech, the crucial points former RBI governor makes on the the link between climate change and globalisation, and the need to liberalize services.   Brought to you by @KiaIndia 

Amid growing calls to deglobalize the economy, Raghuram Rajan says not so fast. Rajan, a former Governor of the Bank of India and former IMF Chief Economist, delivered this year's Per Jacobsson Lecture, in which he argues that continued globalization is our best chance to tackle climate change. Transcript: https://bit.ly/3EVhCIC Watch the webcast of the Per Jacobsson Lecture at IMF.org

Hello Big Brains listeners! Our podcast is coming up on an important milestone … our 100th episode! As part of the month-long celebration, we're looking back at some of our favorite episodes—highlighting a different world-changing idea or discovery each week. This week, we look back at our episode with UChicago economist, Raghuram Rajan. He became infamous for predicting the 2008 financial collapse three years before it happened. Rajan says that there are three pillars in our society: the state, the markets and the community. In his new book, he traces the history of how the state and markets have grown, while the community has weakened. He says these pillars need to be brought back to an equilibrium in order to address many of the global issues we face today.

Flashback Friday episode CW 1154 was released last March 20, 2019. Jason Hartman starts the show talking to in-house economist Thomas about the things that impact your mortgage payment when you first get your loan. Some of them are pretty obvious, but there are several things that stand out as uncommon. Then Jason talks with Raghuram Rajan, former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India and former Chief Economist and Director of Research at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), about how community has been weakened, which has allowed competitive markets and governments to get out of balance. They also discuss what jobs will remain after automation takes off even more, mortgage rates and whether we're headed toward inflation or deflation. Key Takeaways: 3:16 What sorts of things impact your mortgage payment when you first receive your loan 5:19 There are some new credit scoring models that are becoming more prominent 10:03 If interest rates start to climb too high, adjustable rate mortgages might start making a comeback Raghuram Rajan Interview: 14:22 What the IMF is and how it differs from the World Bank 19:17 Massive technological change tends to hit an area and hurt before the benefits kick in later 22:28 After automation comes and takes many of the jobs, there will still be jobs that involve human interaction 27:48 Is Raghuram seeing inflation, deflation, stagflation or what in the coming years? 30:31 Are mortgage interest rates artificially low? 35:15 There's good deflation and bad deflation Websites: www.JasonHartman.com/Masters The Third Pillar: How Markets and the State Leave the Community Behind Raghuram Rajan at Chicago Booth School of Business     Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN https://twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI https://www.instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/   Learn More: https://www.jasonhartman.com/   Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free course: JasonHartman.com/Deals   Free White Paper on The Hartman Comparison Index™: https://www.hartmanindex.com/white-paper   Free Report on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com Jason's TV Clips: https://vimeo.com/549444172 Free Class: CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Special Offer from Ron LeGrand:  https://JasonHartman.com/Ron What do Jason's clients say?  http://JasonHartmanTestimonials.com Contact our Investment Counselors at: www.JasonHartman.com Watch, subscribe and comment on Jason's videos on his official YouTube channel: YouTube.com/c/JasonHartmanRealEstate/videos Guided Visualization for Investors: JasonHartman.com/visualization Jason's videos in his other sites: JasonHartman.com/Rumble JasonHartman.com/Bitchute JasonHartman.com/Odysee   Jason Hartman Extra: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0qQ…   Real Estate News and Technology: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPSy…  

The Nobel prize winning economist Dr. Milton Friedman, said the business of a business  is making money - but within the acceptable social norms. Dr. Raghuram Rajan, Katherine Dusak Miller Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at Chicago Booth School and he was the 23rd Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, looks into how “social norms” have changed and how the businesses need to adapt to adopt sustainable practices. May it be their impact on the planet, how they treat their employees and or make their products. He talks about how there needs to be regulations to guide and help the corporations to achieve these goals.Further, with countries setting goals for netzero, how can we actually have a plan that is accountable and works. Dr. Rajan proposes a global incentive scheme to reduce carbon emissions. On April 19th, 2022 he presented this solution to The Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action that required countries who exceed the per capita global country average for carbon emissions, estimated at 5 tons, will pay to a global carbon incentive fund. He calls this payment Global Carbon Incentives (GCI). He further explains - “this annual payment would be calculated by multiplying the excess emissions per capita by the country's population and a dollar amount called the Global Carbon Incentive. So if the country's population is 30 million, its per capita emission in 17 tons, and the GCI is set at $10, it would pay $30 million*(17-5)*10= $3.6 billion. Countries below the global per capita average would receive a payout commensurate with their “under-emission”.This fund could be managed by a quasi government agency like the World Bank. Mindful Businesses is one of the first media outlets to share Dr. Rajan's solution. Listen to it in our latest episode.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raghuram_Rajanhttps://mindfulbusinessespodcast.com/Mentions:Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action.Angad Daryani - Founder - PraanRam Palaniappan - Founder of Earnin#raghuramrajan, #globalcarbonincentive, #carbonemmissions, #greenhousegases, #SDGs