Podcast appearances and mentions of Raghuram Rajan

Jon Hartley and Raghuram Rajan discuss Raghu's research, his policy career including his time as the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India and the Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, India adopting inflation targeting during his tenure, Rajan predicting the 2008 financial crisis, and economic growth in India, the legacy of his book Saving Capitalism from the Capitalists among many other topics. Recorded on February 19, 2025. ABOUT THE SPEAKERS: Raghuram Rajan is the Katherine Dusak Miller Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at Chicago Booth. He was the 23rd Governor of the Reserve Bank of India between September 2013 and September 2016. Between 2003 and 2006, Dr. Rajan was the Chief Economist and Director of Research at the International Monetary Fund. Dr. Rajan's research interests are in banking, corporate finance, and economic development. The books he has written include Breaking the Mold: Reimagining India's Economic Future with Rohit Lamba,  The Third Pillar: How the State and Markets hold the Community Behind 2019 which was a finalist for the Financial Times Business Book of the Year prize and Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy, for which he was awarded the Financial Times prize for Business Book of the Year in 2010. Dr. Rajan is a member of the Group of Thirty. He was the President of the American Finance Association in 2011 and is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. In January 2003, the American Finance Association awarded Dr. Rajan the inaugural Fischer Black Prize for the best finance researcher under the age of 40. The other awards he has received include the Infosys Prize for the Economic Sciences in 2012, the Deutsche Bank Prize for Financial Economics in 2013, Euromoney Central Banker Governor of the Year 2014, and Banker Magazine (FT Group) Central Bank Governor of the Year 2016. Dr. Rajan is the Chairman of the Per Jacobsson Foundation, the senior economic advisor to BDT Capital, and a managing director at Andersen Tax. Jon Hartley is a policy fellow, the host of the Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century Podcast at the Hoover Institution and an economics PhD Candidate at Stanford University, where he specializes in finance, labor economics, and macroeconomics. He is also currently an Affiliated Scholar at the Mercatus Center, a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity (FREOPP), and a Senior Fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute. Jon is also a member of the Canadian Group of Economists, and serves as chair of the Economic Club of Miami. Jon has previously worked at Goldman Sachs Asset Management as well as in various policy roles at the World Bank, IMF, Committee on Capital Markets Regulation, US Congress Joint Economic Committee, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and the Bank of Canada.  Jon has also been a regular economics contributor for National Review Online, Forbes, and The Huffington Post and has contributed to The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, USA Today, Globe and Mail, National Post, and Toronto Star among other outlets. Jon has also appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, Fox News, Bloomberg, and NBC, and was named to the 2017 Forbes 30 Under 30 Law & Policy list, the 2017 Wharton 40 Under 40 list, and was previously a World Economic Forum Global Shaper. ABOUT THE SERIES: Each episode of Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century, a video podcast series and the official podcast of the Hoover Economic Policy Working Group, focuses on getting into the weeds of economics, finance, and public policy on important current topics through one-on-one interviews. Host Jon Hartley asks guests about their main ideas and contributions to academic research and policy. The podcast is titled after Milton Friedman‘s famous 1962 bestselling book Capitalism and Freedom, which after 60 years, remains prescient from its focus on various topics which are now at the forefront of economic debates, such as monetary policy and inflation, fiscal policy, occupational licensing, education vouchers, income share agreements, the distribution of income, and negative income taxes, among many other topics. For more information, visit: capitalismandfreedom.substack.com/

He's lived a rich life as a journalist, a human rights activist, an author, a columnist -- and now he's written a great book on Gujaratis. Salil Tripathi joins Amit Varma in episode 409 of The Seen and the Unseen to discuss his life, his learnings, these times we live in -- and the times that came before. (FOR FULL LINKED SHOW NOTES, GO TO SEENUNSEEN.IN.) Also check out: 1. Salil Tripathi on Twitter, Instagram, Wikipedia, LinkedIn and Amazon. 2. The Gujaratis: A Portrait of a Community -- Salil Tripathi. 3. The Colonel Who Would Not Repent -- Salil Tripathi. 4. Offence – The Hindu Case -- Salil Tripathi. 5. Detours: Songs of the Open Road -- Salil Tripathi. 6. For, In Your Tongue, I Cannot Fit -- Edited by Shilpa Gupta and Salil Tripathi. 7. The Gita Press and Hindu Nationalism — Episode 139 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Akshaya Mukul). 8. Gita Press and the Making of Hindu India — Akshaya Mukul. 9. Saraswatichandra (Gujarati) (English) -- Govardhanram Tripathi. 10. Gujarat Ni Asmita -- KM Munshi. 11. I Follow the Mahatma -- KM Munshi. 12. Devdutt Pattanaik and the Stories That Shape Us — Episode 404 of The Seen and the Unseen. 13. Ahimsa: 100 Reflections on the Harappan Civilization — Devdutt Pattanaik. 14. Until the Lions -- Karthika Nair. 15. Gods, Guns and Missionaries: The Making of the Modern Hindu Identity — Manu Pillai. 16. The Forces That Shaped Hinduism -- Episode 405 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Manu Pillai). 17. Heroic Failure: Brexit and the Politics of Pain -- Fintan O'Toole. 18. Understanding Gandhi: Part 1: Mohandas — Episode 104 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ram Guha). 19. Understanding Gandhi: Part 2: Mahatma — Episode 105 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ram Guha). 20. Gandhi Before India -- Ramachandra Guha. 21. Objects From Our Past -- Episode 77 of Everything is Everything. 22. The Diary of Manu Gandhi (Part 1) (Part 2) -- Edited and Translated by Tridip Suhrud. 23. The Ferment of Our Founders — Episode 272 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Kapila). 24. Lessons from an Ankhon Dekhi Prime Minister — Amit Varma. 25. Akhil Katyal's poem on caste. 26. Midnight's Children -- Salman Rushdie. 27. Bare Feet – a Poem about MF Husain -- Salil Tripathi. 28. My Mother's Fault -- Salil Tripathi. 29. Jejuri -- Arun Kolatkar. 30. Yashwant Rao -- Arun Kolatkar. 31. The Patriot -- Nissim Ezekiel. 32. Goopy Gyne Bagha Byne -- Satyajit Ray. 33. You're Missing -- Bruce Springsteen. 34. Gabriel Garcia Marquez, Salman Rushdie, Milan Kundera, Ved Mehta and John McPhee on Amazon. 35. All We Imagine as Light -- Payal Kapadia. 36. Niranjan Rajadhyaksha Is the Impartial Spectator — Episode 388 of The Seen and the Unseen. 37. On Tyranny -- Timothy Snyder. 38. Lant Pritchett Is on Team Prosperity — Episode 379 of The Seen and the Unseen. 39. Saving Capitalism From The Capitalists -- Raghuram Rajan and Luigi Zingales. 40. Check out Johan Norberg's great work. 41. The Life and Times of the Indian Economy — Episode 387 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rajeswari Sengupta). 42. India's Problem is Poverty, Not Inequality — Amit Varma. 43. Stay Away From Luxury Beliefs — Episode 46 of Everything is Everything. 44. On Inequality — Harry Frankfurt. 45. Economic growth is enough and only economic growth is enough — Lant Pritchett with Addison Lewis. 46. Sample SSR conspiracy theory: He's alive! 47. Amit Varma's 2022 piece on the mess-up at The Wire. 48. Television Price Controls — Episode 27 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ashok Malik). 49. The Selfish Altruist -- Tony Vaux. 50. Sadanand Dhume's tweet on the hypocrisy around The Satanic Verses. 51. Bad Elements -- Ian Buruma. 52. Biju Rao Won't Bow to Conventional Wisdom — Episode 392 of The Seen and the Unseen. 53. Can Economics Become More Reflexive? — Vijayendra Rao. 54. The Life and Times of Teesta Setalvad — Episode 302 of The Seen and the Unseen. 55. Aakar Patel Is Full of Hope — Episode 270 of The Seen and the Unseen. 56. The Wal-Mart Effect -- Charles Fishman. 57. Modern South India -- Rajmohan Gandhi. 58. The Adda at the End of the Universe — Episode 309 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vikram Sathaye and Roshan Abbas). 59. Whatever happened To Ehsan Jafri on February 28, 2002? — Harsh Mander. 60. Jai Jai Garvi Gujarat -- Narmad. 61. The Populist Playbook -- Episode 42 of Everything is Everything. 62. Where the Green Ants Dream -- Werner Herzog. 63. People's Linguistic Survey of India -- GN Devy and others. 64. The Refreshing Audacity of Vinay Singhal — Episode 291 of The Seen and the Unseen. 65. Stage.in. 66. Reading Lolita in Tehran -- Azar Nafisi. 67. Two Concepts of Liberty — Isaiah Berlin. 68. Understanding the State -- Episode 25 of Everything is Everything. 69. The First Assault on Our Constitution — Episode 194 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Tripurdaman Singh). 70. Shruti Rajagopalan's talk on the many amendments in our constitution. 71. Caged Tiger: How Too Much Government Is Holding Indians Back — Subhashish Bhadra. 72. Subhashish Bhadra on Our Dysfunctional State — Episode 333 of The Seen and the Unseen. 73. Amitava Kumar Finds the Breath of Life — Episode 265 of The Seen and the Unseen. 74. Goodbye Solo — Ramin Bahrani. 75. The desire to help, and the desire not to be helped — Roger Ebert's review of Goodbye Solo. 76. Dalit Kitchens of Marathwada -- Shahu Patole. 77. Firaaq -- Nandita Das. 78. How the BJP Wins — Prashant Jha. 79. The BJP's Magic Formula — Episode 45 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Prashant Jha). 80. The Year of Living Dangerously -- Peter Weir. 81. Ingmar Bergman, Satyajit Ray, Francois Truffaut and Aparna Sen. 82. The New Yorker, Vanity Fair and London Review of Books. 83. Ravi Shankar, Zakir Hussain and Vilayat Khan on Spotify. 84. Nadine Gordiner, Fintan O'Toole, Ilya Kaminsky, Karthika Nair, Ruchir Joshi, Kiran Desai, Nilanjana Roy, Sunil Gavaskar and Mike Brearley. This episode is sponsored by CTQ Compounds. Check out The Daily Reader and FutureStack. Use the code UNSEEN for Rs 2500 off. Amit Varma and Ajay Shah have launched a new course called Life Lessons, which aims to be a launchpad towards learning essential life skills all of you need. For more details, and to sign up, click here. Amit and Ajay also bring out a weekly YouTube show, Everything is Everything. Have you watched it yet? You must! And have you read Amit's newsletter? Subscribe right away to The India Uncut Newsletter! It's free! Also check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. Episode art: ‘Asmita' by Simahina.

Live via LinkedIn at 10:30am GST Hosts: Markose Chentittha (Oort Foundation + Society X) RA George (Blockchain DXB) Theme: Unfiltered Chat - Weekly Crypto, Blockchain & AI Early impact on Bitcoin adoption. Current legal issues: Wrongful detention in Spain. Challenges and potential improvements. Interest rate reduced by 25 BPS. US economy showing resilience. Avoidance of recession. Crypto Market Reactions: Interest Down = BTC & Crypto Pump. Interest Unchanged = BTC & Crypto Pump. Interest Increase = BTC & Crypto Dump. Key Insight: Market manipulation by whales and notorious traders suspected. Bitcoin-to-Gold Ratio hits ATH of 37.3 (previously 36.7 in Nov 2021). Peter Schiff advises selling BTC for gold. Michael Saylor advises selling gold for BTC. Launched Dec. 17 on key platforms (MoonPay, UpholdInc, CoinMENA, Bitso & ArchaxEx). Raghuram Rajan joins the advisory board. U.S. Bitcoin reserve speculation ($15 Trillion market cap). Trump's vague response: “I think so.” NYSE Bell ringing and Person of the Year by Time Magazine. Close to a $4.5B financial package. Strategic move or potential setback? Riot Platform announces $500M convertible senior notes offering + $70M Bitcoin purchase. Gary Gensler's rumored resignation. Paul Atkins for SEC Chair. David Sacks as 'White House AI & Crypto Czar.' Hawk Tuah Coin dumps 90% ($400M wiped out). IG account deleted amid controversy. Tether (USDT) delistings by exchanges. Compliance deadline: Dec. 30. Daily transactions hit a record 66.9 million. PENGU launch credited for surpassing all major blockchain activity. Positive attendee feedback. Eric Trump's speech and industry outlook. Larry Fink: "Abu Dhabi will lead the world in AI & Crypto." Markose Chentitha's update on Oort Foundation & Society X. Blockchain DXB's George's updates. CEO of Boxica interview: 95% of wealth in BTC. Spartan Global Brand Ambassador panel discussion. Open-Source Solutions & Industry Collaboration: Could open source solve 90% of blockchain and AI problems? Don Tapscott addressed the question: "Does Blockchain need AI, or does AI need Blockchain?" Follow-Up:Stay tuned for more LinkedIn Live sessions by Blockchain DXB & Society X. To support this channel: https://www.patreon.com/BlockchainDXB ⚡ Buy me Coffee ☕ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.buymeacoffee.com/info36/w/6987⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⚡ Advanced Media ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.amt.tv/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⚡⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Spartan Race Trifecta⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ in Dubai https://race.spartan.com/en/race/detail/8646/overview For 20% Discount use code: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George20⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⚡ The Race Space Podcast

AI-Powered Episode Overview: This episode is entirely powered by AI using Google's Notebook LM. The AI-generated voice provides a comprehensive review of the engaging conversation between RA George from Blockchain DXB and Markose Chentittha from Oort Foundation. We strongly encourage listeners to check out the full discussion on LinkedIn Live or Spotify for deeper insights and expert commentary. The discussion began with a deep dive into Roger Ver, also known as "Bitcoin Jesus," highlighting his significant contributions to Bitcoin's early adoption. The hosts also touched on his current legal challenges, particularly allegations of wrongful detention in Spain. Early contributions to Bitcoin adoption. Current legal troubles: Alleged wrongful detention in Spain. Challenges and possible improvements discussed. Interest rate reduced by 25 BPS. US economy remains resilient, recession avoided. Crypto Market Reactions: Interest Down = BTC & Crypto Pump. Interest Unchanged = BTC & Crypto Pump. Interest Increase = BTC & Crypto Dump. Insight: Market manipulation by whales and traders suspected. Current ratio: 37.3 ounces per BTC (previously 36.7 in Nov 2021). Contrasting views: Peter Schiff advises selling BTC for gold, while Michael Saylor suggests the opposite. Launched on key platforms like MoonPay, UpholdInc, CoinMENA, Bitso & ArchaxEx. Raghuram Rajan joins the advisory board. Speculated $15 Trillion U.S. Bitcoin reserve. Trump's NYSE bell-ringing appearance and 'Person of the Year' recognition by Time Magazine. Close to securing a $4.5B financial package. Strategic move or potential setback? Riot Platform announces $500M convertible senior notes offering + $70M Bitcoin purchase. Gary Gensler's rumored resignation. Paul Atkins for SEC Chair. David Sacks as 'White House AI & Crypto Czar.' Hawk Tuah Coin dumps 90% ($400M wiped out). IG account deleted amid controversy. Tether (USDT) delistings by exchanges. Compliance deadline: Dec. 30. Daily transactions hit a record 66.9 million due to the PENGU launch. Positive attendee feedback. Eric Trump's industry insights. Larry Fink: "Abu Dhabi will lead the world in AI & Crypto." Markose Chentitha on Oort Foundation & Society X. Blockchain DXB's George shares industry updates. CEO of Boxica: 95% of wealth in BTC. Spartan Global Brand Ambassador panel discussion. Experience the full in-depth discussion by RA George and Markose Chentittha. Listen now on LinkedIn Live or Spotify for expert analysis and real-time updates on crypto, blockchain, and AI. To support this channel: https://www.patreon.com/BlockchainDXB ⚡ Buy me Coffee ☕ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.buymeacoffee.com/info36/w/6987⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⚡ Advanced Media ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.amt.tv/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⚡⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Spartan Race Trifecta⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ in Dubai https://race.spartan.com/en/race/detail/8646/overview For 20% Discount use code: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George20⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⚡ The Race Space Podcast

17th Dec: Blockchain DXB Podcast

Raghuram Rajan is an economist, a former central banker and he is credited with predicting the 2008 financial crisis. He also wrote a book about it called Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy. The book won the FT Business Book of the Year award in 2010. And those fault lines that Rajan wrote about 15 years ago, some of them are still coursing through our economy and markets. On this show, we discuss what those fault lines were, which ones still exist and if new fault lines have opened up. The shortlist for the 2024 edition of the FT and Schroders Business Book of the Year has already been announced. The winner will be revealed on December 9. To find out more visit ft.com/bookaward. RUNNING ORDER: 01:20 - Part one: predicting a financial crisis 07:12 - Part two: the fault lines threatening our economy 14:17 - Part three:  what can policymakers do? NEW EPISODES: The Investor Download is available every other Thursday and will be released at 1700 UK time. You can subscribe via Podbean or use this feed URL (https://schroders.podbean.com/feed.xml) in Apple Podcasts and other podcast players. GET IN TOUCH: mailto: Schroderspodcasts@schroders.com find us on Facebook send us a tweet: @Schroders using #investordownload READ MORE: Schroders.com/insights LISTEN TO MORE: schroders.com/theinvestordownload Important information. This information is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to adopt any investment strategy. Any reference to sectors/countries/stocks/securities are for illustrative purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument/securities or adopt any investment strategy. Any data has been sourced by us and is provided without any warranties of any kind. It should be independently verified before further publication or use. Third party data is owned or licenced by the data provider and may not be reproduced, extracted or used for any other purpose without the data provider's consent. Neither we, nor the data provider, will have any liability in connection with the third party data. Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. The views and opinions contained herein are those of individual to whom they are attributed, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other communications, strategies or funds. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall. Past Performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change. Issued by Schroder Investment Management Limited, 1 London Wall Place, London EC2Y 5AU. Registered No. 1893220 England. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

To say that India needs to create more jobs, is a downplay - what we need are 20 million jobs every year. But jobs can't be created out of the wishing well.We have resources, but not proper skills. We have opportunities, but not proper initiatives to boost on the employment elasticity. We need a shift from Tier 1 to Tier 2 cities. We need a shift of capitals. We need immigration-based jobs for our youths, and we definitely need the women workforce landscape to improve at the earliest. But, will this be enough?Check out our latest podcast where we are in a conversation with Sridhar Krishna, a senior scholar at the Takshashila Institution, to know more!  Timestamps00:00 - 00:47 - The Karnataka Job Reservation Bill04:19 - The impact on the recruiters/builders07:00 - Public Transport and Women in Karnataka 09:16 - Bangalore is not just for startups!09:27 - Government's performance: what we have done well & where can we improve? 11:19 - India needs 20 million jobs each year 12:00 - How to create jobs in India?13:16 - Annual PLF data on unemployment - truth or facade?14:12 - Have “100 million people joined the workforce” truly?14:52 - Labor productivity in India vs in the US 15:22 - Statistics on how to grow employment elasticity 16:25 - 1800 people apply for 10 vacancies in Gujarat - why? 17:23 - ILO reports on job skills and job vacancy mismatch 18:56 - Is manufacturing & services good options to transition from agriculture?20:32 - Shridhar talks about his take on Raghuram Rajan's book “Breaking the Mould”21:26 - Are PLIs unable to craft job growth?22:30 - Rebuilding big cities - a solution for employment growth?23:22 - Lavasa, Maharshtra failed - why?25:02 - Utlising AI to analyse the nature of jobs in other countries27:08 - Career Impact Bonds - What's that?33:14 - 6 pillars as proposed by the recent Eonomic Survey33:49 - Focus needs to shift from Tier 1 to Tier 2 cities 34:40 - Women workforce participation better in Bangladesh than India?39:57 - India losing significant GDP due to fewer women in the workplaceFollow Sridhar Krishna - Linkedin -   / sridharkrishna  X - https://x.com/sridhar_kri?___________________________________Hi, I am your host Siddhartha! I have been an entrepreneur from 2012-2017 building two products AddoDoc and Babygogo. After selling my company to SHEROES, I and my partner Nansi decided to start up again. But we felt unequipped in our skillset in 2018 to build a large company. We had known 0-1 journeys from our startups but lacked the experience of building 1-10 journeys. Hence was born The Neon Show (Earlier 100x Entrepreneur) to learn from founders and investors, the mindset to scale yourself and your company. This quest still keeps us excited even after 5 years and doing 200+ episodes. We welcome you to our journey to understand what goes behind building a super successful company. Every episode is done with a very selfish motive, that I and Nansi should come out as a better entrepreneur and professional after absorbing the learnings. __________________________________Visit our Website: https://neon.fund/Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theneonshoww/Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TheNeonShowwFollow us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/beneon/__________________________________Sponsor Shout OutLooking to build a differentiated tech startup with a 10X better solution? Prime is the high conviction, high support investor you need. With its fourth fund of $120M, Prime actively works with star teams to accelerate building great companies.To know more, visit https://primevp.in/

For many emerging market economies, moving from an export-oriented strategy with labor-intensive manufacturing to a more sophisticated production process was key to their development. But the world is quickly changing, and Raghuram Rajan says India need not follow that same path. In their new book, Breaking the Mold, the former Reserve Bank of India governor and co-author Rohit Lamba argue that India has lost its labor cost advantage and must focus on developing its human capital. In this podcast, IMF Asia and Pacific Department Head Krishna Srinivasan and Raghuram Rajan discuss how India might leverage its growing workforce and pivot from “brawn to brain”. Transcript: https://bit.ly/3yt3iX2 Read Krishna Srinivasan's book review in September's Finance and Development: IMF.org/fandd

University of Chicago Booth Professor Raghuram Rajan discusses his outlook and preview to the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. He spoke to Bloomberg's Scarlet Fu and Romaine Bostick. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news policymakers are still struggling with the last-mile gains in their war on inflation.But first, the number of Americans making initial jobless claims rose last week and by slightly more than expected. That takes them back to early June levels and while not high, it does arrest the recent reduction trend. And there were less claims in the same week a year ago. It is too early to say if this is a labour market turning point, or an outlier. There are now just under 2 mln people on these benefits.The Philly Fed factory survey rose sharply to its best level in four months driven by new orders. The outlook for the next year was especially positive.Japanese exports rose to a three month high in June, a much better outcome than anticipated. While not a record, these exports are at an historically high level and only bested by two previous months in the past year. They are up more than +5% year-on-year and delivered a surprise trade surplus. That is mainly because energy costs no longer swell their import bill.India's central bank is turning its attention away from supporting breakneck economic growth, to controlling inflation. They signaled this in a Bulletin released yesterday - and a return to the policies of Raghuram Rajan, the ones he got removed by Modi for.The ECB monetary policy review overnight delivered no change to their official interest rate settings. They are holding their restrictive policies because inflation pressures remain and wage gains seem to be driving those. European companies are suffering decreased profitability because they are unable to pass on these elevated costs, they say. But they reckon the pressures will be temporary until inflation is beaten. Still they seem very unsure when rate cuts will happen again.In Australia, their employed workforce expanded by +50,100 in June to 14.4 mln. +43,300 of those new jobs were full-time, +6,800 were part-time. Their jobless rate rose marginally to 4.1% and their participation rate is still hovering around 67%. Their employment rate of their working-age population is 64.2%. Container freight rates were little-changed last week but that is of no comfort because they are staying +286% higher than year-ago levels. The usual factors remain in play although the Panama Canal water levels are recovering and back to the 5-year average. July is when levels usually start to recover. Bulk cargo rates are little-changed from a week ago, although they did rise modestly in between before retreating yesterday.And we should probably note - again - that the copper price is still retreating hard, down -7.5 in the past week alone. The reason relates to demand out of the stuttering Chinese economy. Nickel, cobalt and lithium are all suffering too, all components of the 'green transition'.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.19% and up +5 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$2 from yesterday at US$2455/oz and still hovering near its all-time highs.Oil prices are up +50 USc at just on US$82/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$84.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today little-changed at 60.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are also little-changed at 90.2 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 55.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 69.4 and essentially unchanged from this time yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$63.799 and down -0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.4%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Martin Wolf is worried about the threat autocrats pose to liberal democracies. Across the world, billions of citizens are being asked to cast their vote in elections taking place in more than 50 countries, but in many places, populist, illiberal and far-right parties are either growing in support or consolidating gains they have already made. In this episode, Martin spells out his concerns to the FT's executive opinion editor, Jonathan Derbyshire, and they discuss what Martin has gleaned from his conversations with Robert Kagan, Fiona Hill, Anne Applebaum and Raghuram Rajan. Did they ease his concerns in any way?Links: Martin Wolf column: Fascism has changed, but it is not deadFor Martin's other FT columns click hereThis episode is presented by Martin Wolf. The producer is Sandra Kanthal. Production help from Sonja Hutson. The executive producer is Manuela Saragosa and the sound engineer is Nigel Appleton. The FT's global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Across the world, billions of citizens are being asked to cast their vote in elections taking place in more than 50 countries and in many places, populist, illiberal and far-right parties are either growing in support or consolidating gains they have already made. But India, the world's biggest democracy, bucked the trend with Narendra Modi's relatively weak election victory in June. In the third of this five-part series, the FT's renowned economics commentator, Martin Wolf, and Raghuram Rajan, former governor of the Reserve Bank of India, discuss the Indian election results and inherent weaknesses of authoritarian styles of government.Links: Martin Wolf column: Fascism has changed, but it is not deadFor Martin's other FT columns click hereThis episode is presented by Martin Wolf. The producer is Sandra Kanthal. Production help from Sonja Hutson. The executive producer is Manuela Saragosa and the sound engineer is Nigel Appleton. The FT's global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

India's government has big goals for economic growth. The former Governor of the country's Reserve Bank, Raghuram Rajan, argues that India won't be able (and shouldn't try) to follow traditional methods of development. Professor Rajan, now of the the Chicago Booth School of Business, joins The Pie to discuss India's untraveled path to prosperity.

University of Chicago Booth School of Business Professor: Finance/Economist Raghuram Rajan discusses his predictions and outlook to the Fed decision happening this week. He spoke to Bloomberg's Scarlet Fu and Romaine Bostick.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It was a pleasure to welcome Raghuram Rajan back to the Alpha Exchange. Raghu is currently a distinguished professor at the Chicago Booth School of Business and is the former head of the Reserve Bank of India. With a deep understanding of the intersection of markets, the economy and policymaking, he is among the most important voices on Central Banking.With this in mind, our discussion explores his recent book “Monetary Policy and Its Unintended Consequences”, the title alone of which is entirely through provoking. Raghu shares his assessment of the tendency for policy towards increasing asymmetry – where the Fed acts as a lender of last resort during a crisis but finds itself unable to achieve normalization during non-stress periods. We talk as well about the distortions that result from forward guidance and asset purchase programs during non-emergency periods.Lastly, we talk about policy spill-overs, specifically the impact that the Fed's actions can have on emerging economies. As head of the RBI a decade ago and as India experienced the impact of Bernanke's 2013 taper tantrum, Raghu has much to say on this subset of unintended consequences. He argues that the Fed's remit will continue to target domestic growth and inflation, consideration of the international impact of policy decisions should conceivably be a part of the policymaking conversation.The second half of our discussion focused on Raghu's most recent book, “Breaking the Mold”, in which he reviews the progress and challenges in India. Here, he documents the diverging paths of India and China and makes recommendations for how India can learn from what China has done while recognizing both the constraints and opportunities associated with today's global economy. He argues that India is uniquely positioned to provide high value-added services in a digital and remote work economy.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Raghuram Rajan.

Few people are better equipped to unravel the riddle of the Indian economy than the former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, Raghuram Rajan. As the co-author (with Rohit Lamba) of the just published Breaking the Mold: India's Untraveled Path to Prosperity, Rajan lays out a strategy for Indian economic development that might allow the country to both maintain its much storied democracy and provide jobs and prosperity for its almost 1.5 billion people. While Rajan didn't use the term “third way” in our conversation, there is a sense that he's trying to navigate India between the Scylla of conventional western free market neo-liberalism and the Charybdis of the protectionism pursued by populists like Trump, Erdogen and perhaps the current Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Certainly no great fan of Modi's bureaucratic centralization, Rajan's path to prosperity lies in decentralizing economic power to its federal states. It's in the enlightened economic policies of states like Kerala, Rajan argues, that India can break the mold and become not just a prosperous society but also a model for other developing 21st century economies. Raghuram Rajan is the Katherine Dusak Miller Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago business school. He was the 23rd Governor of the Reserve Bank of India between September 2013 and September 2016. Between 2003 and 2006, Dr. Rajan was the Chief Economist and Director of Research at the International Monetary Fund. Dr. Rajan's research interests are in banking, corporate finance, and economic development. The books he has written include Breaking the Mold: Reimagining India's Economic Future with Rohit Lamba, The Third Pillar: How the State and Markets hold the Community Behind 2019 which was a finalist for the Financial Times Business Book of the Year prize and Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy, for which he was awarded the Financial Times prize for Business Book of the Year in 2010. Dr. Rajan is a member of the Group of Thirty. He was the President of the American Finance Association in 2011 and is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. In January 2003, the American Finance Association awarded Dr. Rajan the inaugural Fischer Black Prize for the best finance researcher under the age of 40. The other awards he has received include the Infosys prize for the Economic Sciences in 2012, the Deutsche Bank Prize for Financial Economics in 2013, Euromoney Central Banker Governor of the Year 2014, and Banker Magazine (FT Group) Central Bank Governor of the Year 2016. Dr. Rajan is the Chairman of the Per Jacobsson Foundation, the senior economic advisor to BDT Capital, and a managing director at Andersen Tax.Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting KEEN ON, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy show. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children.Keen On is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe

Today on the show, General David Petraeus who commanded US and coalition forces in Iraq joins Fareed to discuss what America's counterinsurgency strategy there can teach Israel in its war in Gaza. Plus, Russia's new offensive near Kharkiv and what it means for Ukraine's defenses.  Next, Raghuram Rajan, former chief of India's central bank, sits down with Fareed to discuss India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi's economic record and what India would need to do to become an economic powerhouse like China.   Finally, Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Nicholas Kristof shares some harrowing and exciting reporting stories from his new memoir, “Chasing Hope: A Reporter's Life.” They also discuss covering China from 1989 to today, and the bipartisan view in Washington that China is a great threat.  GUESTS: Gen. David Petraeus (Ret.), Raghuram Rajan (@RaghuramGRajan), Nicholas Kristof (@NickKristof)  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Breaking the Mould: India's Untraveled Path to Prosperity is a big new book by the economists Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba. The book is both a critique of India's development model as well as a manifesto for reform.Most notably, it challenges the conventional wisdom that India's primary goal should be to transform the country into a blue-collar manufacturing powerhouse. Rajan and Lamba argue that India cannot duplicate China's development model, but it has the opportunity to leapfrog by focusing higher up the value chain.To discuss the book's ideas and its policy implications, Milan is joined on the show this week by Rohit Lamba. Rohit is an economist at New York University-Abu Dhabi and will soon be joining the Economics Department at Cornell University. He's twice worked in the chief economic advisor's office in the Indian Ministry of Finance.The two discuss what the critics get right about the Indian economy, why India cannot blindly follow the Chinese model, and how India can pivot “from brawn to brain.” Plus, Rohit and Milan discuss the manufacturing versus services debate, India's inward economic turn, and what India must do to upgrade its human capital.Episode notes:1. W. Arthur Lewis, “Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour,” The Manchester School 22 (1954): 139-191.2. Rohit Lamba and Arvind Subramanian, “Dynamism with Incommensurate Development: The Distinctive Indian Model,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 34, no. 1 (2020): 3-30.3. Devesh Kapur, “Why Does the Indian State Both Fail and Succeed?" Journal of Economic Perspectives 34, no. 1 (2020): 31-54.4. Devesh Kapur, “Exit,” Seminar 677 (2015).

The whole world has a stake in India's future, and that future hinges on whether India can develop its economy and deliver for its population--now the world's largest--while staying democratic. India's economy has overtaken the United Kingdom's to become the fifth-largest in the world, but it is still only one-fifth the size of China's, and India's economic growth is too slow to provide jobs for millions of its ambitious youth. Blocking India's current path are intense global competition in low-skilled manufacturing, increasing protectionism and automation, and the country's majoritarian streak in politics. In Breaking the Mold: India's Untraveled Path to Prosperity (Princeton UP, 2024), Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba show why and how India needs to blaze a new path if it's to succeed. India diverged long ago from the standard development model, the one followed by China--from agriculture to low-skilled manufacturing, then high-skilled manufacturing and, finally, services--by leapfrogging intermediate steps. India must not turn back now. Rajan and Lamba explain how India can accelerate growth by prioritizing human capital, expanding opportunities in high-skilled services, encouraging entrepreneurship, and strengthening rather than weakening its democratic traditions. It can chart a path based on ideas and creativity even at its early stage of development. Filled with vivid examples and written with incisive candor, Breaking the Mold shows how India can break free of the stumbling blocks of the past and embrace the enormous possibilities of the future. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

The whole world has a stake in India's future, and that future hinges on whether India can develop its economy and deliver for its population--now the world's largest--while staying democratic. India's economy has overtaken the United Kingdom's to become the fifth-largest in the world, but it is still only one-fifth the size of China's, and India's economic growth is too slow to provide jobs for millions of its ambitious youth. Blocking India's current path are intense global competition in low-skilled manufacturing, increasing protectionism and automation, and the country's majoritarian streak in politics. In Breaking the Mold: India's Untraveled Path to Prosperity (Princeton UP, 2024), Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba show why and how India needs to blaze a new path if it's to succeed. India diverged long ago from the standard development model, the one followed by China--from agriculture to low-skilled manufacturing, then high-skilled manufacturing and, finally, services--by leapfrogging intermediate steps. India must not turn back now. Rajan and Lamba explain how India can accelerate growth by prioritizing human capital, expanding opportunities in high-skilled services, encouraging entrepreneurship, and strengthening rather than weakening its democratic traditions. It can chart a path based on ideas and creativity even at its early stage of development. Filled with vivid examples and written with incisive candor, Breaking the Mold shows how India can break free of the stumbling blocks of the past and embrace the enormous possibilities of the future. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/south-asian-studies

The whole world has a stake in India's future, and that future hinges on whether India can develop its economy and deliver for its population--now the world's largest--while staying democratic. India's economy has overtaken the United Kingdom's to become the fifth-largest in the world, but it is still only one-fifth the size of China's, and India's economic growth is too slow to provide jobs for millions of its ambitious youth. Blocking India's current path are intense global competition in low-skilled manufacturing, increasing protectionism and automation, and the country's majoritarian streak in politics. In Breaking the Mold: India's Untraveled Path to Prosperity (Princeton UP, 2024), Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba show why and how India needs to blaze a new path if it's to succeed. India diverged long ago from the standard development model, the one followed by China--from agriculture to low-skilled manufacturing, then high-skilled manufacturing and, finally, services--by leapfrogging intermediate steps. India must not turn back now. Rajan and Lamba explain how India can accelerate growth by prioritizing human capital, expanding opportunities in high-skilled services, encouraging entrepreneurship, and strengthening rather than weakening its democratic traditions. It can chart a path based on ideas and creativity even at its early stage of development. Filled with vivid examples and written with incisive candor, Breaking the Mold shows how India can break free of the stumbling blocks of the past and embrace the enormous possibilities of the future.

The whole world has a stake in India's future, and that future hinges on whether India can develop its economy and deliver for its population--now the world's largest--while staying democratic. India's economy has overtaken the United Kingdom's to become the fifth-largest in the world, but it is still only one-fifth the size of China's, and India's economic growth is too slow to provide jobs for millions of its ambitious youth. Blocking India's current path are intense global competition in low-skilled manufacturing, increasing protectionism and automation, and the country's majoritarian streak in politics. In Breaking the Mold: India's Untraveled Path to Prosperity (Princeton UP, 2024), Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba show why and how India needs to blaze a new path if it's to succeed. India diverged long ago from the standard development model, the one followed by China--from agriculture to low-skilled manufacturing, then high-skilled manufacturing and, finally, services--by leapfrogging intermediate steps. India must not turn back now. Rajan and Lamba explain how India can accelerate growth by prioritizing human capital, expanding opportunities in high-skilled services, encouraging entrepreneurship, and strengthening rather than weakening its democratic traditions. It can chart a path based on ideas and creativity even at its early stage of development. Filled with vivid examples and written with incisive candor, Breaking the Mold shows how India can break free of the stumbling blocks of the past and embrace the enormous possibilities of the future. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/economics

The whole world has a stake in India's future, and that future hinges on whether India can develop its economy and deliver for its population--now the world's largest--while staying democratic. India's economy has overtaken the United Kingdom's to become the fifth-largest in the world, but it is still only one-fifth the size of China's, and India's economic growth is too slow to provide jobs for millions of its ambitious youth. Blocking India's current path are intense global competition in low-skilled manufacturing, increasing protectionism and automation, and the country's majoritarian streak in politics. In Breaking the Mold: India's Untraveled Path to Prosperity (Princeton UP, 2024), Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba show why and how India needs to blaze a new path if it's to succeed. India diverged long ago from the standard development model, the one followed by China--from agriculture to low-skilled manufacturing, then high-skilled manufacturing and, finally, services--by leapfrogging intermediate steps. India must not turn back now. Rajan and Lamba explain how India can accelerate growth by prioritizing human capital, expanding opportunities in high-skilled services, encouraging entrepreneurship, and strengthening rather than weakening its democratic traditions. It can chart a path based on ideas and creativity even at its early stage of development. Filled with vivid examples and written with incisive candor, Breaking the Mold shows how India can break free of the stumbling blocks of the past and embrace the enormous possibilities of the future. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today my guest is Rohit Lamba, an assistant professor of economics at Pennsylvania State University and a visiting assistant professor of economics at New York University Abu Dhabi. We spoke about his recent book Breaking the Mould: Reimagining India's Economic Future which he has coauthored with Raghuram Rajan. We spoke about their argument to shift the focus from industrial and trade policy towards a services and education policy, how India can and should decentralize, if India can scale education and health, India's growth rate numbers, and much more.  Recorded April 19th, 2024. Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links. Timestamps (00:00:00) - Intro (00:05:21) - Zooming into Indian States (00:20:25) - Why not Decentralization? (00:26:28) - Scaling Education (00:51:14) - Educating the Global South (00:53:22) - Picking Winners and Losers (01:10:22) - India's Growth Rate (01:18:44) - Outro Connect with Ideas of India Follow us on X Follow Shruti on X Follow Rohit on X Click here for the latest Ideas of India episodes sent straight to your inbox.

This week is in conversation with A.K. Bhattacharya, the Editorial Director of the Business Standard, about India's economic reforms of the 90s through a close-up view of the many disruptions that took place in that decade!Most Iconic Finance Minister Of India?How Can Government Incentivize Billionaires To Stay?Why Couldn't India Match Singapore/China's trajectory?Banking System Scam Of 1992 EXPLAINEDWatch this fascinatingly insightful conversation about the role that the finance ministry plays in India's economic growth and how they have shaped up the lives of crores of people in India… Tune in NOW!Sponsor Shout OutLooking to build a differentiated tech startup with a 10X better solution? Prime is the high-conviction, high-support investor you need. With its fourth fund of $120M, Prime actively works with star teams to accelerate building great companies.To know more, visit https://primevp.in/!__________________________________________________________________________________________________CHAPTERS00:00 - Precap01:04 - Introducing A.K. Bhattacharya To The Neon Show!02:02 - The Role Of The Finance Ministry In India04:48 - Most Iconic Finance Minister Of India? 10:05 - Banking System Scam Of 1992 EXPLAINED16:48 - Why Demonetization In India Happened in 1978!24:29 - Balance Of Payments Crisis in The 80s!27:12 - Sanjay Gandhi's Role In Indian Political History30:59 - Was The 1991 Finance Team The Best?33:24 - Why Couldn't India Match Singapore/China's trajectory?40:05 - The History Of Taxation In India42:51 - How Can Government Incentivize Billionaires To Stay?45:17 - The Role Of The RBI52:21 - Sanjay Gandhi's Role In Maruti's Inception!1:00:03 - P. Chidambaram & Pranab Mukherjee As Finance Ministers1:04:01 - Issues Of Duopoly In The Telecom Industry 1:10:15 - How Aspirations Have Changed India's Rate Of Growth

J-1 en Inde pour les élections législatives. Le BJP, le parti du Premier ministre Narendra Modi, est donné favori en raison de son excellent bilan économique. Un succès pourtant contesté, y compris dans les milieux d'affaires. L'Inde deviendra la troisième puissance mondiale d'ici à 2029, c'est-à-dire avant la fin de son prochain mandat, promet Narendra Modi, avec de solides arguments en sa faveur. La croissance est vigoureuse depuis plusieurs années, 6,8% pour cette année, selon les prévisions du FMI. Les grands chantiers lancés depuis son arrivée au pouvoir ont nettement amélioré le quotidien des Indiens et ont dopé l'activité économique. Et enfin, le pays bénéficie aujourd'hui des investissements des multinationales quittant la Chine depuis le Covid. Le BJP et Narendra Modi en font des tonnes sur cette trajectoire flatteuse. En réalité, dénonce un ancien gouverneur de la Banque centrale, l'Inde est encore et restera un pays pauvre.Un enrichissement très relatifCette croissance ultra-rapide et solide est trop faible pour améliorer le niveau de vie des 1,4 milliard d'habitants. Le revenu par habitant n'est que de 2 600 dollars par an. C'est le plus bas des Brics, comme du G20, renvoyant l'Inde à la 139e place du classement mondial en termes de richesse par habitant.Depuis dix ans, le nombre de milliardaires a triplé, mais le revenu de l'immense majorité des Indiens stagne. Avec si peu de redistribution, on voit mal comment le marché intérieur peut entretenir la croissance. Le symptôme le plus flagrant de cette pauvreté est le chômage à 8% – le taux d'activité est très faible, les femmes sont quasiment absentes du marché du travail. La plupart des Indiens vivotent grâce au secteur informel, à des années-lumière de la prospérité de la classe moyenne employée dans les services.Pas de miracle chinois à l'horizonL'ouverture des usines à vocation exportatrice, comme celle d'Apple pour fabriquer des iPhone, est un bienfait pour l'industrie, et donc, pour l'emploi indien. Mais il ne faut pas non plus en exagérer les effets. Les investisseurs étrangers pensent diversification, ils ne veulent plus dépendre d'un seul pays, mais l'Inde ne bénéficie que d'une petite partie de ce vaste mouvement de relocalisation.Le soutien à la tech, affiché comme une priorité par le gouvernement, est bon en soi, explique un autre ancien gouverneur de la Banque centrale, Raghuram Rajan, lui aussi très critique envers le récit très romancé des succès économiques du Premier ministre indien. Mais, selon lui, c'est insuffisant pour donner du travail à tous. Il faut, recommande-t-il, regarder du côté des industries traditionnelles du pays et améliorer l'environnement des investissements. Un domaine où beaucoup reste à faire, estiment les entrepreneurs indiens.Certains préfèrent aller à Singapour pour monter une start-up, faute de confiance dans l'environnement de leur pays. L'arbitraire politique, les mesures protectionnistes encore trop nombreuses dans l'industrie, la faiblesse du marché intérieur sont parmi les repoussoirs les plus fréquemment identifiés, y compris parmi les grandes dynasties économiques totalement acquises à Narendra Damodardas Modi.À lire aussiÉlections législatives en Inde: grandeur et déclin de la plus grande démocratie du monde

This episode of The Pie features a panel discussion following a talk from Raghuram Rajan, the Katherine Dusak Miller Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at Chicago Booth, about his book "Monetary Policy and Its Unintended Consequences." The panel included Charles Evans, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and was moderated by Randall Kroszner, the Norman R. Bobins Professor of Economics at Chicago Booth and former Governor of the Federal Reserve System.

Prediction Time—RSJIn a year when countries as diverse as India, the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, Taiwan, Pakistan and Palau go for their elections, it is tempting to go for an overarching theme for the year while looking ahead. Unfortunately, like these aforementioned elections and the many others that will see about 50 per cent of the human population exercise their democratic choice, there seems to be only a messy mix of political signals emerging from them. Illiberal forces are rising in some places, and autocrats are rubber-stamping their authority in others. Democracy is blooming afresh in a few, while the trends of deglobalisation and closed borders are resonating among others. Of course, there are the wars old and new and, maybe, a few more round the corner to complicate any attempt at a broad narrative for the world. To add to the woes of anyone trying to write a piece like this, the economic macros globally look volatile and inchoate. There is increasing talk of a soft landing of the US economy while the EU and the UK stare at another lost year. Depending on who you speak to, China has either put its economic issues behind it and is ready to charge back with its investment in future technologies like AI, EVs and hi-tech manufacturing, or it is at the “Japan moment” of the late 80s. Japan, on the other hand, is itself having a brief moment of revival, and no one knows if it will have legs or if it is yet another false dawn.It is foolhardy to purvey macro forecasts in this environment. But then this newsletter won't write itself. No? So, I guess the best course then is to make more specific predictions instead of taking big swings and hoping those come true while the macros swing wildly. This will also satisfy Pranay's pet peeve about generic predictions that I mentioned in the last newsletter. So, let me get going with 10 somewhat specific predictions for next year.* President Biden will decide sometime in early February that he cannot lead the Democratic Party to power in the 2024 elections. He will opt out of the race and give possibly the most well-backed Democrat, financially and otherwise, a really short window of four months to clinch the nomination. In a way, this will be the best option for his party. If he continued to run for the 2024 elections, it would have been apparent to many in the electorate that they are risking a President who won't last the full term. If he had opted out earlier, the long-drawn primary process would have led to intense infighting among the many factions of the party, eventually leading to fratricide or a Trump-like populist to emerge perhaps. A narrow window will allow the Party to back an establishment figure and reduce the fraternal bloodletting. Who will emerge from this is anyone's guess. But whoever it might be, if (and it is a big if) they have to come up against Trump, they will lose. To me, the only way Trump doesn't become the next President is if he isn't on the ballot. And the only way that looks possible is if he loses his legal battles. Otherwise, you will see a second Trump term which will be worse than the first one. * There's way too much confidence about the Fed having piloted a ‘safe landing' for the US economy despite the many odds that were stacked against it. I think this is fundamentally misplaced. The fiscal deficit is unsustainable, and much of the soft landing is thanks to it. The GDP growth has been supported by an almost doubling of the federal fiscal deficit. This won't last. The higher rates that haven't yet led to any real string of bankruptcies or asset bubble collapses will begin to make an impact. The geopolitical risks that have only been aggravated in the last 12 months and the increasing protectionism worldwide will make it difficult to sustain growth at 2023 levels. My view is that the real landing will be in 2024, and it won't be soft.* China will get more adventurous geopolitically as it weakens economically. Look, the property market crisis is real in China and given the influence it wields on its economy, it is difficult to see any return to the ‘normal' 8 per cent growth anytime soon. The local government finances will worsen, and there is a real possibility of a few of them defaulting. There will be more fiscal support to prop up the numbers and more packages for sectors in stress. Foreign inflow will continue to be anaemic, though it won't be negative, as it turned out late last year. The Chinese customers' long-awaited consumption spree isn't coming in 2024. All in all, China will stutter while still wowing the world with its progress in tech.* BJP will come back to power, but it will fall a bit short of 300 seats. This will surprise many, considering the continued electoral success of its machinery and all the Ram Mandir ballast it plans for itself from this month onwards. There are a couple of reasons for it, largely driven by electoral arithmetic across the states where it did very well in 2019 and where a repeat showing will be difficult. Also, the sense of complacency about winning it hands down will mean a letup in the door-to-door mobilisation model that it has perfected. All of this will mean a decline in 30-40 seats across the board. The new Modi cabinet will be a surprise with new Finance and Defence ministers and a whole host of new faces as it goes for a generational change in leadership.* The somewhat surprising trend of record US deficit going hand-in-hand with the relatively strong showing of the dollar in the past two years will eventually come to a face-off. And my guess is 2024 is when the dollar will blink. As other emerging economies start to trade in currencies other than dollars - who wants to risk more exposure to the dollar? - and its economy doesn't have a soft landing like I predict, US dollar will be hit. My guess is that 2024 will be the first year of a 3-4-year dollar down cycle. In the next year, I predict the dollar to fall by 10 per cent against most world currencies. This might not hold with India because we are a bit of a unique case. But a dollar slide looks inevitable to me.* I had predicted a more aggressive anti-trust stance and significant moves against Big Tech by the FTC. It didn't pan out. So, I will repeat the prediction. Lina Khan, the FTC Commissioner, has a nine-month window to go after them, after which it isn't certain she will continue to be in her post. I predict a big scalp during this time, which will then be legally challenged. But expect a tough couple of quarters as she and her team do their best to leave a mark for the future.* The Indian economy will continue its trend of surprising on the upside, though I think global headwinds will temper the overall growth. I expect a 6.5 per cent growth with the inflation at the 4.5 per cent mark through the year. The much-awaited capex cycle will not be broad-based and will show up in select sectors led by large Indian conglomerates or global platform players. I expect FII inflow to be among the lowest in many years in 2024, and much of the equity market will be buoyed by domestic fund inflow into the market. The Nifty will remain flat or be up 5 per cent because of global weakness and the relative overvaluation seen already.* The Israel-Hamas war will end faster than people think. Maybe by April. Not because there will be some solution agreed between the parties. There's nobody to fight any more in Giza. The Hezbollah won't get involved, and the Houthi insurgency will be a mere storm in the teacup. On the other hand, the Ukraine war will continue with no real end in sight during the year. A Trump (or Republican government) in 2025 will likely stop funding the war, and that will pressure Ukraine to negotiate with Putin. But that's for 2025.* Two specific corporate predictions: One, AI will continue to impress us with its capabilities without making a dent on real business. So expect to be surprised by a best seller written by an unknown author that will later revealed to be an AI-trained algorithm. Or a music album, even. There will be many conferences and papers, but AI's wider impact will still be distant in 2025. Two, I think Novo Nordisk will be well on its way to becoming the most valued company in the world in 2024. It might become the most valued in Europe during the year itself as it will struggle to produce enough of its weight loss drugs to keep up with demand.* I forecast one of two contentious pieces of legislation will come into play after the elections are over. We will see a real move on either the Uniform Civil Code or on one-nation one-election (ONOE) at the back end of the year. These are issues close to this government; they will get these going right after the elections.That's that, then. We will see how they go during the year.India Policy Watch: The Services vs Manufacturing DebateInsights on current policy issues in India— Pranay KotasthaneBreaking the Mould: Reimagining India's Economic Future, a book by economists Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba, has started a much-needed discussion on India's future growth trajectory. The authors challenge the dominant narrative that India should imitate the manufacturing-led growth strategy followed by the East Asian countries. They instead point to India's comparative advantage in low-end and high-end services, making a case for a policy reprioritisation to double down on these strengths. The book argues that replicating China's manufacturing success is neither possible nor desirable. Not possible because manufacturing supply chains are shortening due to increased protectionism and higher rates of automation, making the conditions far more difficult than what China faced. Moreover, China hasn't gone away; it remains a formidable competitor in manufacturing. Replicating that success might not even be desirable, they contend, as the value added in a product's manufacturing stage is dwarfed by the value captured in the upstream R&D stage and the downstream services (branding, marketing, content production, etc.) stage. And hence, they are against the kind of subsidies on offer for electronics and chip manufacturing assembly. The Micron chip assembly plant is a particular thorn in their eye because it will cost Indians $2 billion and produce a mere 5000 direct jobs with no R&D spillover. They argue that services and Services for manufacturing are the sweet spot for India to focus on. The money splurged on manufacturing and assembly should be ploughed back into education and health, priming India's human capital for global success.In sharp contrast, international trade economist Devashish Mitra makes the case that low-end export-led manufacturing (such as in textile, apparel, and leather) is the only way out for India. In his book review for the Economic Times, Mitra writes:“India is a labour-abundant economy. This abundance is in low-skilled labour, given that almost 80% of its working-age population does not have even a higher secondary education, with only an eighth of the working-age population having studied beyond high school. While India adds 8-10 million people to its labour force annually, roughly 2 million are college-educated or beyond. There is also a wide variation in the quality of degree programmes across India, most of which cannot impart marketable skills. Thus, high-skilled workers are scarce.Standard international trade theory tells us that an economy abundant in low-skilled labour, when open to international trade, will specialise in low-skilled labour-intensive production activities, which are the ones in which such a country has its inherent comparative advantage. Furthermore, India's technology-driven comparative advantage is also expected to be in low-end manufacturing activities, as those would be the ones in which India's productivity disadvantage relative to advanced economies would be the least, for example, textiles, apparel and footwear. Thus, high-skill specialisation for India, as envisioned by Rajan and Lamba, would have to defy standard international trade theory.”Mitra also points out that the government should prioritise solving the unemployment problem, the only way around which is low-end manufacturing because IT and IT services have historically had comparatively low levels of employment growth.Reading these two perspectives over the past few days has been rewarding. This is precisely the debate that needs the attention of our policymaking elite. At this stage, I have three initial observations.One, the services vs manufacturing is a false binary. Both views are actually quite similar in their essence because they both advocate capitalising on India's comparative advantages. That advantage lies in high-end services such as chip design and in low-end manufacturing such as textiles and footwear. There is no need to choose just one of them. Success in both areas needs the same ingredients—eliminate self-defeating policies, improve skilling, pass trade-friendly reforms, and invest in health and education.Two, I feel the criticism of low-end chip and electronics assembly misses an important consideration. If chips are the building blocks of the Information Age, it makes sense for India to begin the journey at the lower end of the chip manufacturing supply chain and climb up that ladder over two decades or so. Jobs generated per rupee of money spent is not the only criterion that should motivate economic decision-making. For example, India's nuclear energy sector is not evaluated primarily on the number of jobs it creates. Similarly, the primary goal of building the intellectual and manufacturing capability for making chips is to reduce critical vulnerabilities in the future. India can pursue the twin goals of doubling down on comparative advantages and reducing vulnerabilities simultaneously. In any case, attracting a single 65-nanometre specialised fab (which would cost around ₹10,000 crores) doesn't come at the expense of a better university education system. India can do both. Third, the book brilliantly emphasises that the services sector needs a lot more policy focus. Trade economists propose that we are heading towards a future where manufacturing supply chains will become shorter (because of protectionism and China-related fears) while services supply chains will become longer (because of better technology). This implies that services as a percentage of global trade will only rise. When that happens, nation-states will start imposing trade barriers for services, too. So, the Indian government needs to champion trade frameworks that bring down services trade costs. An analogous case is that of the Information Technology Agreement (ITA) of the WTO. Signed in the nineties, the ITA substantially brought down tariffs on information technology goods and their intermediate products. This move immensely benefited multinational companies and consumers worldwide, including in India. Similarly, it's time for India to champion a Global Services Trade Agreement that lowers barriers that Indian service providers face in participating in global trade. It also becomes clear why data localisation policies that hamper services exports will have a disproportionately negative impact on India's economic future. Finally, do read both the book and Devashish Mitra's paper linked in the HomeWork section. And yes, check out our Puliyabaazi with Rohit Lamba, which discusses some of these themes.PolicyWTF: How Pro-Business Protectionism Hurts Indian WomenThis section looks at egregious public policies. Policies that make you go: WTF, Did that really happen?— Pranay KotasthaneBy now, it's widely known that Bangladesh has eaten away at India's share in textile and apparel exports. This industry is labour-intensive and employs a significant proportion of women in the formal labour force—46% of all Indian women in the manufacturing sector are employed by apparel and textile industries taken together. Hence, it's important to diagnose the reason for India's decline. As with policy success, policy failure can also have multiple causes. Bangladeshi exports received preferential treatment in the West as part of the latter's policy to help poorer countries. This is one important reason that helped Bangladesh. However, this reason alone doesn't explain India's decline in fibre production. It turns out that the reason is our favourite villain: pro-business protectionism. I learned about this causal linkage from an excellent 2022 paper, Reigniting the Manmade Clothing Sector in India, by Abhishek Anand and Naveen Joseph Thomas.This is how I understood the story that Anand and Joseph narrate. India has been losing global market share in textiles and apparel since 2011 to Bangladesh and Vietnam. The global demand for artificial fabric-based cloth (such as polyester) is far higher than that for natural fabric-based cloth (such as cotton) for cost and durability reasons. Thus, India's underperformance is largely due to a decline in its exports in the artificial fibre segment. And why is that the case? The most important input for the polyester fabric is a chemical called Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA). The villain enters the scene. In October 2013, the two major domestic producers of PTA (Reliance Industries Ltd. and Mitsubishi Chemical Corporation India Ltd.) petitioned the government to impose anti-dumping duties on imported PTA. The government agreed. The anti-dumping duties were supposed to remain in force for six months. But they were kept in force for over six years! To make matters worse, the government imposed additional import tariffs on PTA in 2018 as part of its atmanirbharta driveoverdrive. This rise in PTA costs had a cascading effect on the downstream fibre-making and apparel industries, making their products costly even as Bangladesh continued enjoying preferential tariff treatment in the EU. Vietnam benefited from trade agreements with Australia, Canada, the EU, and also the RCEP. The productivity of India's textile sector declined, and many potential jobs vanished in thin air, disproportionately impacting women.There's an even uglier face to this fiasco. While large sections of Indians lost out, the position of a select few protected businesses improved. Vertically integrated firms with a presence in the entire supply chain from PTA to polyester yarn, and finally, apparel, benefited immensely as their competitors had to pay higher rates for the imported PTA. Protected from the cost of imports due to their in-house PTA production capabilities, these companies cornered a bigger domestic market share. Notably, their lower productivity means that even these protected firms can't compete in the global market. This a canonical example of how pro-business policies hurt markets and people. Even though the government dropped the anti-dumping duties on PLA in 2020 and started a Production-linked Incentive (PLI) for textiles, it simultaneously increased import duties for the downstream polyester to now protect domestic yarn producers from foreign competition! Talk about learning from past mistakes. PolicyWTF indeed.In any case, do read the entire paper. It's written lucidly, without the jargon and the scary Greek alphabet.HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters* [Article] Martin Wolf has an excellent column in the Financial Times on liberalism and its discontents. It cites the Inglehart-Welzel Cultural Map to argue that even if there is no ‘clash of civilisations', there seems to be a ‘divergence of civilisations' on freedom-related questions. As an aside, I observed that there is no data for India in the seventh round of the World Values Survey, which covers the period 2017-21. Does any reader know why? Is it a story similar to India pulling out of the PISA rankings? * [Video] This is a good conversation on Devashish Mitra's paper Manufacturing-fed, Export-led Growth for Gainful Employment and Skill Creation. The presentation has no scary equations, and the discussion is insightful. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com

क्या भारत चीन के मैन्युफैक्चरिंग मॉडल की नकल करके विकास कर पायेगा? क्या भारत अपनी जनसंख्या और भारत की सर्विस सेक्टर में बढ़त का फायदा उठाकर एक बेहतर विकास का रास्ता खोज सकता है? इसी विषय पर अर्थशास्त्री रोहित लाम्बा और रघुराम राजन की नयी किताब ‘ब्रेकिंग थी मोल्ड' पर विस्तार में चर्चा।  What should be India's strategy so that it can grow rich before it grows old? Is the path to India's success through state-subsidised manufacturing or through a services driven model? This week on Puliyabaazi, we dive into these questions with economist Rohit Lamba in a discussion on his new book “Breaking the Mould” co-authored with Raghuram Rajan. Listen in and share your thoughts with us.  More Reading: Breaking the Mould by Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba https://amzn.eu/d/e9EiOUJ National Education Policy 2020 https://www.education.gov.in/sites/upload_files/mhrd/files/NEP_Final_English_0.pdf On Micron plant being built with government subsidies https://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/micron-plant-groundbreaking-on-saturday-mos-chandrasekhar/article67333707.ece *****   related Puliyabaazi   ***** आर्थिक सुधारों की कहानी मोंटेक सिंह अहलूवालिया की ज़ुबानी। Backstage with Montek Singh Ahluwalia https://puliyabaazi.in/episode/aarthik-sudhaaro-kii-khaanii-mottek-sih-ahluuvaaliyaa-kii-jubaanii-backstage-with-montek-singh-ahluwalia   भारत: एक भूजल सभ्यता। India: A Groundwater Civilisation. https://puliyabaazi.in/episode/bhaart-ek-bhuujl-sbhytaa-india-a-groundwater-civilisation ***************** Website: https://puliyabaazi.in Write to us at puliyabaazi@gmail.com  Hosts: @saurabhchandra @pranaykotas @thescribblebee    Puliyabaazi is on these platforms: Twitter: @puliyabaazi  Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/puliyabaazi/ Subscribe & listen to the podcast on iTunes, Google Podcasts, Castbox, AudioBoom, YouTube, Spotify or any other podcast app.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Order His Book - Breaking the Mould : Reimagining India's Economic Future (in English) Here: https://amzn.eu/d/ce8VxsyOrder His Book - Breaking the Mould : Reimagining India's Economic Future (in Hindi) Here: https://amzn.eu/d/bvb1Ree---------------Smell good, feel confident. Use my code Raj10 to get additional 10% off all Blanko perfumes: https://hi.switchy.io/BlankoxRaj--------------Subscribe To Our Other YouTube Channels:-https://www.youtube.com/@rajshamaniclipshttps://www.youtube.com/@RajShamani.Shorts-----------------In today's episode of Figuring Out, we have Raghuram Rajan in conversation with Raj Shamani. He is an Indian Economist and has served India as 23rd Governor of RBI. Currently, he is serving as Vice- Chairman at the Bank for International Settlements. This episode is level apart from all the other podcasts of Figuring Out, because we had one of the top Indian Personality who has in-depth knowledge of India and gave us answers to most burning questions of Indians. In this episode, we talked about what is the role of RBI Governor, what's the actual reason behind inflation, how to keep it under control and why 2000 rupee notes were banned. He also shared his views on P.M Modi and Manmohan Singh. We also talked about his new book ‘Breaking the Mould' and discussed my favourite chapter from that book. We then discussed the India Canada controversy and his views on it. I asked him which are the three countries according to him that could be at the top in the coming years and the countries he named were something I never expected but as he explained, everything made sense.Towards the end I asked him what did America and China do right and become so successful and what is India doing wrong to not reach where it should have reached by now. We also talked about how much an RBI Governor earns on an average and this answer will shock you for sure! We ended with discussing 3 financial tips that every young India should know and follow. This episode is a gold-mine of knowledge for every Indian. If you love this episode, then don't forget to subscribe to our channel, we come up with new episodes every Wednesday and Saturday.Follow Dr. Raghuram Rajan Here:LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/raghuram-rajan----------

After discussing the trajectory of China's economy earlier this year, Luigi and Bethany turn their attention to the future of another global economic behemoth: India. Joining them is renowned Indian economist Raghuram Rajan, who has a brand-new book out this week, "Breaking the Mould: Reimagining India's Economic Future" (co-authored with Rohit Lamba).In "Breaking the Mould," Rajan and Lamba make the controversial and counterintuitive argument that India should follow an economic development path that is based not on manufacturing, as China has done, but rather on services. In this conversation, we discuss why India's strengths play to services-based development, how India can deal with the economic and educational inequality created by its past, how Western business should engage with India, and why democracy is critical to India's future economic success.We think his perspectives are important for Indian citizens and policymakers, but also for global citizens and policymakers given the critical role India will play in shaping the world of the future. 

What were the deep causes of the global financial crisis and great recession? Has unconventional monetary policy in the wake of the crisis done more harm than good? And should monetary policy target financial stability? I discuss these questions and more with Indian economist and Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago Raghuram Rajan. Raghuram Rajan was chief economist at the IMF from 2003 to 2006, and from 2013 to 2016 he was Governor of the Reserve Bank of India. As RBI Governor, he notably introduced India's inflation-targeting scheme, among many other achievements. Full transcript available at: josephnoelwalker.com/151-raghuram-rajanSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In future we're going to have to cope with a more volatile climate, but how can we increase the resilience of the most vulnerable communities? An analysis of droughts in the US in the 1950s shows how the financial sector can help communities to adapt to large climate shocks – and what happens when credit is not available. Raghuram Rajan and Rodney Ramcharan talk to Tim Phillips.

India Watch #1: Of Protests and Perfect TricksInsights on issues relevant to India— RSJFor nearly a month now, some of India's top wrestlers, who between them have earned over 25 medals in various global competitions, have been protesting against the conduct of the Wrestling Federation of India (WFI) chief and BJP MP Brij Bhushan Singh. This is not an ordinary protest. The allegations in the FIR against Singh are quite serious, including a couple of instances of demanding sexual favours as a quid pro quo for professional assistance, about 15 incidents of sexual harassment and stories of inappropriate touching, and molestation of minor girls. You would imagine this would be some kind of an open-and-shut case. I mean, here are a few women wrestlers who have everything to lose here by taking a stand against their own federation and the government. They aren't superstar cricketers with financial security and access to media. They don't have multi-million and multi-year sponsorship deals or lucrative post-retirement commentary gigs waiting for them. Their sport is everything to them, and they are willing to risk that one thing they have loved doing all their lives. These are girls who have come up the hard way in a society that doesn't prize either women or sports and especially women in sports. They have persevered despite the odds against them because that's what athletes do. So, the least you would have thought is that while the police investigations and the judicial process is going on, or, as we like to say in India, as the law takes its own course, the government should ask the WFI chief to step down temporarily. Surprisingly though, this doesn't seem to be a priority for the government. Instead, it appears they would rather suppress these voices than address their concerns. So, last week while you had saturation coverage on various channels about the inauguration of the new parliament building, these athletes were being roughed up and assaulted at the site of protest. There was barely any TV media there. As they say, there are always two Indias at work. It is tempting to zoom out a bit and say that this story, in many ways, reflects the current state of Indian politics and society. It is not there yet. But there is a pattern in how we are dealing with protests and dissent that merits a deeper look. Before I go there, let me count the number of ways we have got this thing wrong. Firstly, for decades, we have managed sports and their governing bodies in India in the most unprofessional way possible. These positions have often been given to politicians as small consolation prizes to run their minor fiefdoms. Corruption, nepotism and high-handedness of officials have come along with this. Read any autobiography of an athlete in India and you will be struck by the remarkable apathy and neglect they had to overcome from their own sporting federation to succeed. As major sports events like the Olympics or Asian Games approach, there's often a question of why our sporting performance doesn't reflect our population size and recent prosperity. This story never gets old. While we have seen some improvement in the last decade, we remain an underperforming nation in sports. One fundamental issue to address is improving sports administration by involving experts with experience in either playing the sport, managing large organizations, or possessing a proven visionary track record. Indian tennis is a prime example where one family has presided over its administration for over half a century. We have only gotten worse in tennis, with almost no one ranked anywhere in the top 1000 in the world. Similar fiefdoms exist in other sports like boxing, shooting and even cricket. Despite the efforts of some public-spirited lawyers and a few interventions by the Supreme Court to set things right, things have remained the same. There was some hope when this government came to power that there would be much-needed reforms in sports administration, especially in those early days. However, once you have the keys to the power of the state, it is difficult to resist its benefits. The result is a disheartening situation where politicians with limited understanding or passion for sports lead the federations. We are back to the bad old days now. Secondly, we seem to be undoing all the progress we have made in addressing sexual harassment allegations in the workplace. There are POSH committees that are legally mandated in organisations and a framework that allows for a safe and secure environment for women at work. In India, the foundation for this framework was based on the Vishaka guidelines set nearly 25 years ago. In cases like this, the employer (in this case, the sports ministry) should form a committee with an independent chair who investigate these allegations and arrive at their conclusions. And it is usual that during such an investigation, it would be appropriate for the accused to step aside for a free and fair process. However, none of this process has been followed. Neither the WFI nor the Indian Olympic Association (IOA) have even acknowledged taking up these allegations. In fact, P.T. Usha, the current chief of IOA and a track legend initially dismissed them as false and an attempt to tarnish our nation's image. We are back in the territory of ghar ki izzat, and the patriarchal attitudes where raising such concerns are seen as bringing dishonour to one's family or damaging a country's reputation. It is concerning that even government officials are not adhering to their own established guidelines. The response to the protests by both the sporting fraternity and the general public has been surprising. Despite the police manhandling of these athletes, very few voices have come out in support of them, with notable exceptions like Abhinav Bindra and Sania Mirza. Even their anodyne statements hoping that the athletes are given their due and that proper investigations take place seems like an act of courage. The 1983 cricket World Cup winning team, too, came out with a statement expressing anguish at the treatment of the athletes and hoping for a resolution. I'm not sure what resolution they are expecting in a case that should be picked up by the police and investigated with rigour. Quite disconcertingly, although to the surprise of no one, the usual set of partisans and news anchors have questioned the motives behind these protests. The usual whataboutery season is on in the TV debates, and the WhatsApp universities are busy generating content blaming the victims or distracting us with Rahul Gandhi's US visit. It is a textbook case of a society losing its moral compass today while romanticising its glorious past and its superiority as a civilisation. In a society where many underprivileged children pursue sports as a means to improve their lives, the exploitation by administrators and coaches within the system should be a matter of great concern. Despite this reality, political affiliations and a belief that our leader can do no wrong is now trumping reason. We now have a situation where there are people questioning the legal process put in place for sexual harassment complaints that apparently favour the woman victims' rights to fight their case. This mindset risks undoing the progress made towards providing safe working environments for women. We are happy to go down the path of victim blaming and gaslighting than hold men in power accountable. This in a country where crime against women is still among the highest in the world and that has one of the lowest female participation rates in labor worldwide. So, why is the government reluctant to act against Singh? Based on the track record of how it has handled previous protests, there are three possible explanations for this behaviour. One, this administration perceives admitting a mistake as a sign of weakness. They would rather make incorrect decisions than appear weak in any way. We have made this point earlier. This is the basis of its electoral appeal. That it can do no wrong. Accepting that the protesters are right will dent its strong government image. Two, there is the electoral angle to this, given we are less than a year away from the Lok Sabha polls. Brij Bhushan Singh's influence in the Ayodhya-Gonda region cannot be ignored. He or his family members have won elections there for over three decades, regardless of their party affiliation. His ability to switch allegiances while maintaining electoral success suggests a ground network that doesn't depend on a party for success. While the BJP is on a strong wicket for winning 2024, it doesn't want to risk failure, especially in U.P. This calculus might still turn if the recent mobilisation of the local Jat communities and Khap panchayats to support the wrestlers becomes stronger. This shift may transform the protest into something more politically relevant, as it happened with the farmer protests. I don't think I had imagined a day when the Khap panchayats would be seen as advocates of women's rights. But we are there. The third explanation lies in the ruling party's deeper understanding of social undercurrents, which they believe represent the silent majority's views. This covers issues like women's liberation and how India has imitated Western liberal guidelines that aren't compatible with our civilisational values. They would like to believe that a sizable portion of Indian society may support a pause on liberal issues especially relating to women's freedom. I'm not very sure if this is an accurate assessment, but it doesn't hurt to be politically ambiguous on this. At a broader level, this is also about how we see protest or dissent in these times. It is intriguing how easily people trust the state despite the weight of history against it while distrusting the protesters who have a grouse against the powerful. This is an odd inversion that seems to have arisen because our collective sense of self-worth and pride are now closely intertwined with our perception of how well the state performs. So, questioning its actions or motives can be seen as an attack on the collective self-worth. It is an almost perfect trick. India Policy Watch #2: Beyond Isomorphic Mimicry Insights on burning policy issues in India— Pranay Kotasthane“South Korea became a manufacturing and technological superpower riding on industrial policies that backed chaebols (large domestic business conglomerates), so why shouldn't India do this too?”“Technological upgradation of Chinese companies happened because of the Party-state's policies of Forced Technological Transfer, also known as ‘trade-markets-for-tech (TMFT)'. India should adopt this approach as well.”“France has banned short-haul flights to counter climate change. India should follow this lead and impose green taxes on air travel if not a full ban.”“Amsterdam has bicycle tracks and Bogota has Bus Rapid Tranist (BRT); so should Bengaluru.”I'm pretty sure you have come across similar arguments. Not just people outside the government, policymakers and career analysts can also be found making arguments of this nature. Now, it's easy to ridicule these points of view as “isomorphic mimicry”, what Andrews, Pritchett, and Woolcock define as:the tendency of governments to mimic other governments' successes, replicating processes, systems, and even products of the ‘best practice' examples… a key technique of successful failure that perpetuates capability traps in development.My instinctive response to such arguments is similar. However, I now think that we need to go one step beyond and ask, “why are we prone to committing isomorphic mimicry? What makes us seek refuge in it?” This post is an attempt to answer these questions. The fundamental reason behind such arguments is a mental model that imagines public policy as a deterministic process where heroic policies can quick-solution us out of trouble. It is this assumption that we must rethink in order to avoid isomorphic mimicry. Here's why.To begin with, we need dollops of humility. Forget quick-solutions, we don't even know all the variables that impact major public policy processes. Observe, for instance, the question of economic growth. In edition #52, RSJ explained how there's no single answer as to why countries experience a period of rapid economic growth. At best, we can identify clusters of factors such as economic freedom, political freedom or institutions, geography, and investment in human and physical capital. So is the case with innovation. Over the last few months, I tried to understand the reasons behind China's strides in innovation and technology upgradation. The more I read about it, the more it became clear that forced technology transfer, IP theft, or industrial policy alone cannot explain the transformation. At best, I could come up with the explanation that China's innovation is a combination of fundamental factors and proximate factors. The fundamental factors were: a Capable Workforce, Technology Transfers, and State Focus on Innovation. The proximate factors such as Forced Technology Transfer, IP Theft, Specific Government Policies, and Selective Protectionism have, at best, played a cameo role.So is the case with urbanisation. We have some good hypotheses about why certain sectors spatially organise into concentrated clusters, but we don't know for sure what would it take to make a successful new city. We can identify some fundamentals, but it's difficult to create a pathway.These three examples illustrate the need to adopt a different mental model to think about public policy. One such frame is complexity theory. Over the last two decades, there have been several attempts to think about public policy as a complex system. Public Policy scholar Paul Cairney explains the attributes of complex systems in these words:* A complex system is greater than the sum of its parts; those parts are interdependent – elements interact with each other, share information and combine to produce systemic behaviour.* Some attempts to influence complex systems are dampened (negative feedback) while others are amplified (positive feedback). Small actions can have large effects and large actions can have small effects.* Complex systems are particularly sensitive to initial conditions that produce a long-term momentum or ‘path dependence'.* They exhibit ‘emergence', or behaviour that results from the interaction between elements at a local level rather than central direction.* They may contain ‘strange attractors' or demonstrate extended regularities of behaviour which may be interrupted by short bursts of change. [From Paul Cairney's post on his ever-excellent blog]When applied to public policy, this complex system mental model gives us a few axioms. Policy Ingredients, not Policy Recipes The complex system lens shows us that it is futile to obsess about deriving policies using “best practices” from another country or city. It is far more important to think about preparing the initial conditions that could trigger emergent behaviour towards the desired policy goal. A government shouldn't be designing a perfect quick solution to a chronic problem, but creating conditions in which different competing solutions can emerge. In a sense, governments need to put together all the essential ingredients that go into achieving a policy goal rather than create an award-winning policy recipe. This line of thinking explains national innovation. There's no one blueprint to be found for innovation success. Countries have followed different pathways. But we know that ingredients such as reasonably high levels of human capabilities and infrastructure and strong connections with global science and technology ecosystems are common fundamental factors in innovation success.Another example comes from economic policy. Pro-market policies are about putting together key ingredients for growth take-off, while pro-business policies are equivalents of step-by-step recipes handed down to you. I used to think that finance ministers claiming “the fundamentals of our economy are strong” was a cleverly-worded evasion. But the lens of complexity would suggest that fundamentals are exactly what the government should focus on. The Idea of Probabilistic SuccessThe lens of complexity implies that governments are not as effective in achieving our goals. The best case is when governments have prepared all initial conditions for take off. But that's no guarantee for success. In the Indian context, this thinking should give us a pause before we airdrop governments as a troubleshooter for all our problems. The Merits of DecentralisationIn a complex system, it's beneficial to give agency to organisations so that they can learn from their experience and change tack in response to on-ground conditions. In this sense, complexity theory is a reaffirmation of Hayek's insight in The Use of Knowledge in Society. Individuals and, by extension, markets are in a better position to experiment and display different emergent behaviours than centrally engineered solutions from the top.Hope, not Analysis-paralysisComplexity can at once be liberating and shackling. The insight that there are no perfect policy recipes can drive us into an analysis-paralysis mode, leading to dejection and disillusionment. But the knowledge that given the right conditions, emergent behaviour can spring up unexpectedly gives a reason for hope and provides a new meaning to the shloka, “Karmanye Vadhikaraste ma phaleshu kadhachana” (perform your duty but do not expect the fruits of your labour). P.S: The complexity theory mental model holds promise in public policy, but at present, there are far more questions than there are answers.India Policy Watch #3: Why this Kolaveri with Assembly?Insights on burning policy issues in India— Pranay KotasthaneI like the richness of the debate on the production-linked incentive scheme (PLI) for electronics manufacturing. Last week, economist and former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan questioned the government's self-congratulatory messages on mobile exports using these words:“.. it turns out that very little apart from assembly is done in India, though manufacturers claim that they intend to do so in the future. So, India imports much of what goes into the mobile phone, and when we correct for that, it is very hard to maintain that net exports have gone up.”Some of you readers might recollect that we have regularly critiqued the electronics PLI since its inception. Our first post about it was written in November 2020. So, it shouldn't surprise you that we agree with this recommendation:The government should undertake a detailed assessment on how many PLI jobs have been created, the cost to the country per job, and why the PLI doesn't appear to have worked so far before extending it to other sectors. That said, I have several questions about the analysis. First, I was surprised that one of the criticisms in the note is that “it is entirely possible that we have become more dependent on imports during the PLI scheme” on account of increased imports of mobile phone components for assembly in India. It is well-known that imports of sub-components will keep increasing as we scale up assembly in India for a few years until local substitutes come up, as they did in China and Vietnam. Moreover, as we wrote in edition #185, China and Viet Nam witnessed a decrease in the domestic value added per unit of demand when they began assembling mobile phones. Companies preferred to import components, assemble, and then export them. Only after their electronics exports had achieved global scale did the two countries target local content addition. And hence, we shouldn't expect quick gains in the Indian case as well. Only after the assembly in India achieves some scale will local suppliers come up. In the Apple ecosystem, for instance, the Final Assembly Testing and Packaging (FATP) units run by the likes of Foxconn are the key nodes. Once they take root, it's in their self-interest to develop a local supplier ecosystem to meet the unsparing demands of their product launch cycle.Curiously, a terrible way for governments to reduce the import of components is to raise import tariffs further, a solution that the authors of the note would vehemently disapprove of. Second, the note proposes that India should make its own chips. Manufacturing chips will help reduce the import bill, and that's where the government's semiconductor strategy comes in. However, the path to making a complicated leading-edge processor chip will perhaps take two decades. And to get there, the government would, in turn, need more PLIs and upfront capital investment in fabs. In fact, we should expect higher chip imports from China over the next decade until we have a semblance of chip manufacturing done here. Importing cheap chips from China is not a vulnerability.In sum, I don't see a rise in imports of components as an indication of the failure of the PLI, just as I don't interpret the rise in mobile phone exports alone as an unqualified success. HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters* [Chapter] Don't miss this chapter on isomorphic mimicry. An old classic.* [Podcast] On Puliyabaazi, MR Madhavan of PRS Legislative Research discusses all things Parliament. The part where we discuss the impending Lok Sabha constituency delimitation threw up a few interesting alternatives. * [Blog] Paul Cairney's long-running blog Politics & Public Policy is a must-subscribe. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com

A version of this essay was published by firstpost.com at https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/shadow-warrior-no-the-finance-mandarins-dont-always-screw-up-they-only-do-it-in-petty-ways-12678122.htmlThe Twitterverse and the media in general have been brutal on India's babu-log for several recent missteps. These, many fear, revive the ghosts of the late lamented License Raj: for instance the imposition of 20% Tax Collected at Source for overseas credit card transactions, the poorly-managed withdrawal of 2000-rupee notes, or the angel tax on domestic investments in startups (but not on investments from 21 specified countries).But let's be honest and give them credit where it's due: they shepherded India through the pandemic leaving the economy in pretty decent shape compared to the rest of the world. Even more importantly, the general handling of the economy has gone so well (of course thanks also to other tailwinds like the infrastructure push and the manufacturing thrust) that there is a genuine feeling among both locals and foreigners that India's time in the sun is finally here.This is no mean achievement, especially given the withering information warfare waged by the Deepstate. India's GDP grew in FY 2022-23 at 7.2%, pretty much the highest rate for any large economy, exceeding estimates even by the RBI. An optimistic report from Morgan Stanley, "How India Has Transformed in Less than a Decade" cites several reasons for such optimism: government reforms, demography, technology, strong economic fundamentals. “India is broken”, it ain't. And let's not go with services alone, Raghuram Rajan!And then the babus go and screw up on these relatively minor things, making everybody look bad!This is like I have always said, Indians thrive on complexity. We can do the Kumbh Mela in fine style (kudos to the much-maligned babus), but we can't queue up for an elevator to save our lives. Or desist from driving like maniacs, honking like mad and darting all over the place. Too simple, I guess. There are also habitual naysayers (some surely beholden to the Nehruvian Stalinist ecosystem or on the Deepstate/Soros payroll) who simply cannot believe that things are finally beginning to look up in and for India. There are those who are perennially on pet hobby-horses (one who gets all his wisdom from taxi-drivers, and another who thinks low-quality service jobs that add no lasting value are manna from heaven). Others are periodically astroturfed like mushrooms after rains, to mix American and Malayalam metaphors recklessly.What they fail to see (intentionally) is that the glass is half-full. Yes, there are major problems: India's education system is going from bad to worse; corruption is still a menace; the public sector continues to be an albatross around India's neck; the endless election cycle means that it is hard to think long-term (both for babus and for politicians); populist giveaways and special interest lobbies bankrupt the exchequer; the judicial system is in bad shape; and so on. On the other hand, there is proof of progress. Undeniable proof. Once the dirigiste state was partly dismantled under duress by Narasimha Rao, things improved notably, as the animal spirits of Indian entrepreneurs and traders apparently had a field day. Under Narendra Modi India's steady recent growth has been in nice contrast with tepid growth elsewhere. But the more intriguing tale is about poverty reduction on the one hand, and of the provision of services on the other. If the UN is to be believed, India has lifted 415 million people from poverty in 15 years. Furthermore, various infrastructure projects providing electricity, drinking water, roads and railways to even remote parts of the hinterland are quite likely increasing the quality of life as well as the per capita income. The other big deals, of course, are Demonetization and GST. Despite massive negative propaganda, I think the impartial observer today would be hard pressed to see these as net negatives. The giant strides made towards digitization, just by themselves, would justify the relatively minor inconvenience people went through at the time. UPI has made inroads into the remotest interior villages (Ecowrap from the SBI says that 60% of transactions by volume and value are now coming from rural and semi-urban areas). The same report says the value of UPI payments has gone up from Rs. 6947 crore in FY17 to Rs. 139,00,000 crore in FY23, a huge growth of 2004x. The use of the smartphone as a Point of Sale system has been a nice adaptation of technology, supported by Jio and inexpensive data.There is a video clip of P. Chidambaram, the former Finance Minister of India, mocking digital transactions. In the video, Chidambaram is speaking at an event and he says, "How can you expect a poor lady in a village to use digital transactions when there is no electricity and no POS devices?"Pretty bad look from the supercilious Chidambaram. It is the same attitude displayed by nay-sayers from Lutyens and Khan Market: they do not believe the average Indian can or will progress. Only the mai-baap sarkar of the Nehru Dynasty can save them, they claim. On the contrary, the Nehruvian Penalty has kept 500 million Indians poor, as I wrote on Rediff.com in 2004. The reality is that under the Nehruvian Stalinists, India kept falling behind the rest of the world. After 1991, India is slowly and painfully clawing its way back up the ranks of global wealth. The GST, despite many flaws, has also been a success in creating a single national marketplace, and in reducing logistics bottlenecks (remember those mile-long queues of trucks idling at state boundary checkpoints, and surely the enormous amounts changing hands?). As India ramps up manufacturing, the improvement in transportation efficiency will pay for itself.None of this happened just like that, it was willed into existence, says TheEmissary in a positive post https://theemissary.co/modinomics-why-india-is-rising/ and this is true, somebody imagined it, and somebody else, yes, the very same babus, put things into motion. Compared to all these pluses, surely the mandarins are entitled to screw up a little bit now and then. But the point is the mindset behind the TCS, and the poor communication strategy behind the Rs 2000 note withdrawal.At a time when India is attempting to offer the rupee as a global currency, and trying to make India a more attractive investment location, the TCS (Tax Collected at Source) surely feels like a retrograde step dating back to the days of worrying about foreign exchange reserves (unnecessarily, as India's current kitty is around $572 billion, which is close to an all-time high).The signal it sends out is that officious babus will make life difficult for average users in the pursuit of either minor increases in tax collections or an illusory improvement in forex reserves. Far more useful would be a deep analysis of what is causing the trade deficit with China to balloon (it is now bigger than India's entire defense budget), which sectors or products will have the greatest bang for the buck (eg. pharma APKs), and solid Production Linked Incentives to increase Indian production of the same. The withdrawal of the Rs. 2000 notes is probably a good idea, because by now the criminal ecosystem has figured out how to counterfeit them efficiently. As in years past, the ‘second-best' notes are likely being produced in Pakistan and shipped through the Middle East to India. So there's nothing wrong in removing them from circulation.Two caveats, though. It would have been a lot better to withdraw them before the BJP's debacle in Karnataka. It's sort of locking the barn door after the horse has bolted. As in years past, the vast bulk of corruption money intended for elections is quite likely stored in these larger notes, and removing them from circulation is a good idea. Well, fine, this will have an impact on the 2024 elections, I imagine. The second is the total cockup in the communication of the withdrawal. The first announcement said the notes could be deposited before a certain date, but that they would continue to be legal tender (which seems counter-intuitive). If you deposited more than Rs. 20,000 a day, though, the idea seemed to be that you would have to show some id, PAN/Aadhar. That would help identify anybody who had been hoarding large quantities of cash (usually for dubious purposes). But then the second announcement, from SBI, said that there would be no need for any paperwork. Meanwhile people were using 2000-rupee notes to buy luxury items, especially gold. So exactly what is going on? What is the point in this not-demonetization? Did the babus get cold feet and do U-turns?The angel tax on startups is itself a dubious idea, especially when India is attempting to increase the viability of its homegrown early-stage companies. The regulatory atmosphere and the relative paucity of local venture funding is anyway encouraging startups to register themselves abroad, say in Singapore or Dubai or Silicon Valley. By adding a tax you're making Indian startups less appealing to investors. Furthermore, by picking and choosing investment from certain countries to be exempt from the tax seems either capricious or over-reach/meddling. It simply isn't true that these Anglo and Nordic countries are all pure as the driven snow, as we have seen on numerous occasions.The bottom line, though, is that despite periodic missteps, India's finance folks and the central bank have done a stellar job, and it shows: India's banks are currently among the most profitable in the world, with no worrying bank failures (unlike, say, in the US and Europe); interest rates and inflation are modest (again, unlike the US and EU). So two cheers for the babus! 1538 words, May 27, 2023, updated 1626 words, June 1, 2023 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit rajeevsrinivasan.substack.com

Kopi Time hits 100 episodes! Raghuram Rajan, Professor at the University of Chicago, former Governor, Reserve Bank of India (2013-16), former IMF Chief Economist (2003-06), returns to our podcast to talk about the risks building up in global finance and economy. We begin with duration mismatch risks causing a rise in vulnerability among banks and nonbank financial institutions in the US. Is this an inevitable result of the exceptional monetary accommodation of the past decade and a half, followed by some tightening? Why haven't post-GFC regulations stemmed such risks from materialising? What are the indicators to watch going forward, and what can policy makers do at this point? What about the entire edifice of inflation targeting, and where do emerging market economies fit into all this? While this discussion focuses largely on financial sector stress and central banking, Professor Rajan also weighs in on the issue of sovereign debt restructuring that is badly needed for a number of developing countries, with critical roles to be played by creditor nations and multilateral organisations. Very few thinkers have been as prescient as Raghuram Rajan in capturing the fault lines in modern finance; it was a privilege to have him on the show in such momentous times.   See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Recommend this show by sharing the link: pod.link/2Pages For one of Marcella's significant birthdays, we went to the Fogo Island Inn, an extraordinary building on an island off the East Coast of Canada. More than just an extraordinary building, being there is an extraordinary experience - a hotel built into the rock of the island, and into the roots of the community. I've stayed at more than my fair share of hotels in my time, but the Fogo Island Inn is the first and only one that comes with a mission to save the world.  Zita Cobb is the founder and CEO of Shorefast, a charity organization that, through business, preserves culture, sustainability, and economic well-being of local communities. These aims are evident in her additional role as the innkeeper of the aforementioned Fogo Island Inn. Get‌ ‌book‌ ‌links‌ ‌and‌ ‌resources‌ ‌at‌ https://www.mbs.works/2-pages-podcast/  Zita reads two pages from ‘The Third Pillar' by Raghuram Rajan. [reading begins at 14:40]   Hear us discuss:  How to start a movement: “Communities aren't problems; they're assets.” [20:33] | Risk and resilience in community building. [25:30] | The balance between playing the long game and the urgency for progress: “We have to survive the present to get to the future.” [28:46] | The importance of dignity. [30:49] | How to maintain your optimism. [33:00] | Finding the right people to make change happen. [35:28] | Embodied communities: “We only know who we are in relation to each other.” [37:50] | Being the one to reach out and say hello. [40:20]

David Malpass, World Bank President, says the developing world is under "giant pressure" from debt. Gita Gopinath, IMF First Deputy Managing Director, says the balance of risks facing the world economy remain tilted to the downside. Paolo Gentiloni, EU Commissioner for Economy, says Europe is on track to rebalance China trade. Tobias Adrian, IMF Director of Monetary and Capital Markets, says there's certainly evidence in the data of some contraction in lending. Raghuram Rajan, Chicago Booth Professor of Finance, Former IMF Chief Economist & Former Reserve Bank of India Governor, says longer-term growth "doesn't look good." See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Several questions continue to swirl around the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and its larger implications. In this special episode, Chicago Booth's Raghuram Rajan – former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India and IMF Chief Economist – joins Bethany and Luigi to explore the risks in the financial system and possible solutions.Rajan discusses a paper he presented (with NYU Professor Viral Acharya) at the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole conference in 2022, arguing that the Fed's liquidity provision left the financial sector more sensitive to shocks, and suggesting that the expansion and shrinkage of central bank balance sheets involves tradeoffs between monetary policy and financial stability. Together with the hosts, Rajan discusses the path forward on inflation, given economic and political pressures, and his recommendations on how to manage risks and tradeoffs.Link to the advertised Chicago Booth Review podcast:https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/podcast?source=cbr-sn-cap-camp:podcast23-20230320Check out ProMarket's ongoing coverage of the recent banking turmoil, including a summary of Raghuram Rajan's paper and new research by Luigi, referenced towards the end of the episode, on the new dangers of ‘bank walks.'

It was only in Episode 240 that we discussed the coming banking collapse and what you needed to know about it. Not even two weeks later we have the second-largest bank failure in US history. My message...don't let this corrupt, dishonest, fascist money system steal everything from you! Don't be a victim! You have the power to take action. Join me today as we dig into this a bit and try to apply it to what is fast approaching. Aaron Klein, senior fellow in economic studies at The Brookings Institute, Raghuram Rajan, professor of finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, and David Bahnsen, founder, and chief investment officer of the Bahnsen Group, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the Fed's response to the SVB fallout, bank market risk, and the contagion effect from SVB. For access to live and exclusive videos from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO: https://cnb.cx/2NGeIvi Silicon Valley Bank: What experts think of US regulators response to the fallout - YouTube The Bear Traps Report founder Larry McDonald argues current market conditions 'guarantee' a recession. #FOXBusiness Expert issues 'bloodcurdling' warning over SVB collapse - YouTube President Joe Biden speaks on banking following the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, reassuring customers they will have access to their money. https://abcn.ws/42bZVxI President Biden reassures Americans that ‘our banking system is safe,' in wake of big bank failures - YouTube --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/seth-martin0/message

In this episode, all three stories are about the economy. First, Indian Express' Udit Misra talks about what the ‘Hindu rate of growth' is, and why Raghuram Rajan said that India is “dangerously close” to it.Next, Indian Express' Harish Damodaran tells us what the latest government data reveals about the extent of India's structural transformation (08:58).And in the end, Indian Express' Anonna Dutt tells us about the government's plan to boost medical tourism, and what experts say should be done about it (17:18).Hosted, produced and scripted by Shashank BhargavaEdited and mixed by Suresh Pawar

After former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan warned India is ‘dangerously close' to the Hindu rate of growth, ThePrint Editor-in-Chief Shekhar Gupta explores patterns within economic data over 6 decades to discover a growth-politics link. In episode 1186 of ‘Cut the Clutter'. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GDP growth (annual %) - India : https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=IN --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Iron Lady's rethink: Martyr, patriot, reformer? : https://theprint.in/national-interest/iron-ladys-rethink/8773/ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Shekhar Gupta's National Interest column: https://theprint.in/national-interest/it-isnt-the-economy-genius-india-proves-it-by-voting-for-modi-again-and-again/633329/  --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Shekhar Gupta's National Interest video column : https://youtu.be/EfGllL9IW94 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Nobel prize winning economist Dr. Milton Friedman, said the business of a business  is making money - but within the acceptable social norms. Dr. Raghuram Rajan, Katherine Dusak Miller Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at Chicago Booth School and he was the 23rd Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, looks into how “social norms” have changed and how the businesses need to adapt to adopt sustainable practices. May it be their impact on the planet, how they treat their employees and or make their products. He talks about how there needs to be regulations to guide and help the corporations to achieve these goals.Further, with countries setting goals for netzero, how can we actually have a plan that is accountable and works. Dr. Rajan proposes a global incentive scheme to reduce carbon emissions. On April 19th, 2022 he presented this solution to The Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action that required countries who exceed the per capita global country average for carbon emissions, estimated at 5 tons, will pay to a global carbon incentive fund. He calls this payment Global Carbon Incentives (GCI). He further explains - “this annual payment would be calculated by multiplying the excess emissions per capita by the country's population and a dollar amount called the Global Carbon Incentive. So if the country's population is 30 million, its per capita emission in 17 tons, and the GCI is set at $10, it would pay $30 million*(17-5)*10= $3.6 billion. Countries below the global per capita average would receive a payout commensurate with their “under-emission”.This fund could be managed by a quasi government agency like the World Bank. Mindful Businesses is one of the first media outlets to share Dr. Rajan's solution. Listen to it in our latest episode.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raghuram_Rajanhttps://mindfulbusinessespodcast.com/Mentions:Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action.Angad Daryani - Founder - PraanRam Palaniappan - Founder of Earnin www.instagram.com/mindful_businesses_podcast www.facebook.com/Mindfulbusinesses #raghuramrajan, #globalcarbonincentive, #carbonemmissions, #greenhousegases, #SDGs

“My fear is that we are sleepwalking into this world. But hey, here is Davos! Wake up! Do the right thing!” That's the rallying cry of Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, imploring the global elite at this week's World Economic Forum to be vigilant as an almost unrivaled list of perils weighs on the world's leaders. Recession looks set to sweep across the globe, nations are leaning more heavily on coal amid tight energy supplies and the cost of servicing debt is soaring. Getting things wrong, Georgieva says, means dragging the “world into a place where we'll be all poorer and we would be less secure.” In this week's episode of the Stephanomics podcast, host Stephanie Flanders chats with a star-studded list of international economists, finance ministers and corporate chieftains from Davos, Switzerland. Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of the IMF, explains why finance ministers and central bankers are caught in an almost impossible dilemma: High inflation requires central bankers to raise interest rates to cool the economy, even as governments spend more to help consumers hurting from soaring energy and food costs. Longer term, real interest rates may stay high unless countries can get more targeted with their relief programs, instead of spreading assistance universally, argues Raghuram Rajan, a finance professor at the University of Chicago and former governor of the Reserve Bank of India. The US overspent during the pandemic, partly because “every constituency got a share of the spending simply because they couldn't make choices,” Rajan says. Next, Flanders has a decidedly more upbeat chat with Nandan Nilekani, chairman of Indian tech giant Infosys Ltd. With news that China's population has declined for the first time in decades, India is set to become the world's most populous country. What's more, Nilekani sees the country benefiting from manufacturers seeking an alternative to China, spooked by the latter nation's repeated factory shutdowns amid its Covid-zero policy. Per capita incomes may grow from $3,000 now to $15,000 in the next 25 years, and “that's much more than a middle-income country,” Nilekani says. Finally, Nela Richardson, chief economist at US-based payroll and business outsourcing firm Automatic Data Processing Inc., says real wages have declined across the world recently, even if nominal wage gains have created a myth that workers are “in the driver's seat.” Businesses would benefit from paying workers a living wage, which despite the apparent expense actually results in better productivity and lowers costs, Richardson tells Flanders. “Will inflation moderate enough and wages stay solid enough that workers actually benefit from lower inflation? We don't know that yet,” Richardson says.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A perfect example in Pappunomics was Rahul Gandhi's interview of Raghuram Rajan, who looked so uncomfortable at the non-economic questions that he ended up contradicting favourite themes of Rahul Gandhi, including his pet theme of 'employment'. Vijay Sardana is with Sanjay Dixit to discuss the funny economics of the Congress Princeling.

Michael and Mark take a break today for the Thanksgiving holiday, and welcome Jack Farley from Forward Guidance onto the podcast for a special cross-over episode. This episode from Forward Guidance is with William White, senior fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Federal Reserve. They discuss why economic forecasts are so often wrong, how the world can escape the “debt trap,” and how central bankers face a trade-off between price stability (low inflation) and financial stability. William White's work can be found here: https://williamwhite.ca/ Joseph Wang's writings can be found here: https://fedguy.com/ -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj __ Academic papers referenced: "Where Has All the Liquidity Gone?" by Raghuram Rajan and Viral Acharya: https://rb.gy/n47fah "Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)" by Jeremy Rudd: https://rb.gy/4wjzx8 "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic" by Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace: https://rb.gy/53kikq William White's recent presentation on the future of policy modelling: https://rb.gy/robwk2 -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_the_margin, you'll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can't-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:09) Looking Back At 2022 (04:20) Quantitative Tightening (QT) is Causing Disruptions (11:55) "The Central Bankers Have Made A Profound Ontological Error" (23:17) Does Fed Chair Jay Powell Pay Attention To Economic Models? (25:25) Algorand Ad (27:09) If Inflation Is Supply-Side Driven, What Should Central Bankers Do? (40:43) The Debt Trap (46:04) Powell Is Not Worried About a Recession - Is This A Mistake? (54:39) Getting Out Of The Debt Trap (58:36) The Fed Has Lost A Lot Of Money (01:04:22) A Global Economic Slowdown is Here (01:09:52) Crypto Contagion and the Fall of FTX -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On the Margin or Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan's latest statement that ‘the world cannot afford India to follow China's path of export-led growth in manufacturing' — at the IMF-World Bank annual meet has drawn sharp reactions. In episode 1,098 of 'Cut the Clutter', ThePrint Editor-in-Chief Shekhar Gupta decodes Rajan's full speech, the crucial points former RBI governor makes on the the link between climate change and globalisation, and the need to liberalize services.   Brought to you by @KiaIndia 

Amid growing calls to deglobalize the economy, Raghuram Rajan says not so fast. Rajan, a former Governor of the Bank of India and former IMF Chief Economist, delivered this year's Per Jacobsson Lecture, in which he argues that continued globalization is our best chance to tackle climate change. Transcript: https://bit.ly/3EVhCIC Watch the webcast of the Per Jacobsson Lecture at IMF.org

Hello Big Brains listeners! Our podcast is coming up on an important milestone … our 100th episode! As part of the month-long celebration, we're looking back at some of our favorite episodes—highlighting a different world-changing idea or discovery each week. This week, we look back at our episode with UChicago economist, Raghuram Rajan. He became infamous for predicting the 2008 financial collapse three years before it happened. Rajan says that there are three pillars in our society: the state, the markets and the community. In his new book, he traces the history of how the state and markets have grown, while the community has weakened. He says these pillars need to be brought back to an equilibrium in order to address many of the global issues we face today.

Flashback Friday episode CW 1154 was released last March 20, 2019. Jason Hartman starts the show talking to in-house economist Thomas about the things that impact your mortgage payment when you first get your loan. Some of them are pretty obvious, but there are several things that stand out as uncommon. Then Jason talks with Raghuram Rajan, former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India and former Chief Economist and Director of Research at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), about how community has been weakened, which has allowed competitive markets and governments to get out of balance. They also discuss what jobs will remain after automation takes off even more, mortgage rates and whether we're headed toward inflation or deflation. Key Takeaways: 3:16 What sorts of things impact your mortgage payment when you first receive your loan 5:19 There are some new credit scoring models that are becoming more prominent 10:03 If interest rates start to climb too high, adjustable rate mortgages might start making a comeback Raghuram Rajan Interview: 14:22 What the IMF is and how it differs from the World Bank 19:17 Massive technological change tends to hit an area and hurt before the benefits kick in later 22:28 After automation comes and takes many of the jobs, there will still be jobs that involve human interaction 27:48 Is Raghuram seeing inflation, deflation, stagflation or what in the coming years? 30:31 Are mortgage interest rates artificially low? 35:15 There's good deflation and bad deflation Websites: www.JasonHartman.com/Masters The Third Pillar: How Markets and the State Leave the Community Behind Raghuram Rajan at Chicago Booth School of Business     Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN https://twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI https://www.instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/   Learn More: https://www.jasonhartman.com/   Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free course: JasonHartman.com/Deals   Free White Paper on The Hartman Comparison Index™: https://www.hartmanindex.com/white-paper   Free Report on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com Jason's TV Clips: https://vimeo.com/549444172 Free Class: CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Special Offer from Ron LeGrand:  https://JasonHartman.com/Ron What do Jason's clients say?  http://JasonHartmanTestimonials.com Contact our Investment Counselors at: www.JasonHartman.com Watch, subscribe and comment on Jason's videos on his official YouTube channel: YouTube.com/c/JasonHartmanRealEstate/videos Guided Visualization for Investors: JasonHartman.com/visualization Jason's videos in his other sites: JasonHartman.com/Rumble JasonHartman.com/Bitchute JasonHartman.com/Odysee   Jason Hartman Extra: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0qQ…   Real Estate News and Technology: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPSy…