Podcasts about santa barbara county

A stunning new revelation in the D4VD case: private investigator Steve Fischer has confirmed that an industrial-grade "burn cage" incinerator was discovered inside the Hollywood Hills rental where singer D4VD was living when 14-year-old Celeste Rivas Hernandez's dismembered remains were found in his Tesla. The incinerator, still unopened and in its original packaging, burns at 1,600 degrees Fahrenheit — 200 degrees hotter than what's required for human cremation. Fischer says the device was delivered under a false name but accepted at the residence, and notes that such incinerators are illegal to operate within Los Angeles County. The discovery comes as a grand jury continues hearing testimony in the case. Last week, D4VD's record label executive Robert Morgenroth testified for three days and was reportedly grilled by prosecutors about why he didn't contact police after Celeste's body was discovered. An uncooperative female witness now faces arrest after failing to appear for her scheduled testimony. Meanwhile, investigators have reportedly built a detailed digital timeline using Tesla data, phone records, and geolocation evidence — including tracking D4VD to a remote area of Santa Barbara County in the middle of the night last spring. A second suspect has been identified who authorities believe was involved before, during, and after Celeste's death. D4VD, who has not spoken publicly since the case began, is reportedly considered a suspect by investigators, though no arrests have been made. The cause of death remains under a court-ordered security hold. This video breaks down every new development, what the burn cage discovery means for the investigation, and why the walls appear to be closing in on everyone connected to this case. #D4VD #CelesteRivas #CelesteRivasHernandez #TrueCrime #BurnCage #GrandJury #HollywoodHills #LAPD #TeslaCase #JusticeForCeleste Want to comment and watch this podcast as a video? Check out our YouTube Channel. https://www.youtube.com/@hiddenkillerspod Instagram https://www.instagram.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Facebook https://www.facebook.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Tik-Tok https://www.tiktok.com/@hiddenkillerspod X Twitter https://x.com/tonybpod Listen Ad-Free On Apple Podcasts Here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/true-crime-today-premium-plus-ad-free-advance-episode/id1705422872

A stunning new revelation in the D4VD case: private investigator Steve Fischer has confirmed that an industrial-grade "burn cage" incinerator was discovered inside the Hollywood Hills rental where singer D4VD was living when 14-year-old Celeste Rivas Hernandez's dismembered remains were found in his Tesla. The incinerator, still unopened and in its original packaging, burns at 1,600 degrees Fahrenheit — 200 degrees hotter than what's required for human cremation. Fischer says the device was delivered under a false name but accepted at the residence, and notes that such incinerators are illegal to operate within Los Angeles County. The discovery comes as a grand jury continues hearing testimony in the case. Last week, D4VD's record label executive Robert Morgenroth testified for three days and was reportedly grilled by prosecutors about why he didn't contact police after Celeste's body was discovered. An uncooperative female witness now faces arrest after failing to appear for her scheduled testimony. Meanwhile, investigators have reportedly built a detailed digital timeline using Tesla data, phone records, and geolocation evidence — including tracking D4VD to a remote area of Santa Barbara County in the middle of the night last spring. A second suspect has been identified who authorities believe was involved before, during, and after Celeste's death. D4VD, who has not spoken publicly since the case began, is reportedly considered a suspect by investigators, though no arrests have been made. The cause of death remains under a court-ordered security hold. This video breaks down every new development, what the burn cage discovery means for the investigation, and why the walls appear to be closing in on everyone connected to this case. #D4VD #CelesteRivas #CelesteRivasHernandez #TrueCrime #BurnCage #GrandJury #HollywoodHills #LAPD #TeslaCase #JusticeForCeleste Want to comment and watch this podcast as a video? Check out our YouTube Channel. https://www.youtube.com/@hiddenkillerspod Instagram https://www.instagram.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Facebook https://www.facebook.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Tik-Tok https://www.tiktok.com/@hiddenkillerspod X Twitter https://x.com/tonybpod Listen Ad-Free On Apple Podcasts Here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/true-crime-today-premium-plus-ad-free-advance-episode/id1705422872

A stunning new revelation in the D4VD case: private investigator Steve Fischer has confirmed that an industrial-grade "burn cage" incinerator was discovered inside the Hollywood Hills rental where singer D4VD was living when 14-year-old Celeste Rivas Hernandez's dismembered remains were found in his Tesla. The incinerator, still unopened and in its original packaging, burns at 1,600 degrees Fahrenheit — 200 degrees hotter than what's required for human cremation. Fischer says the device was delivered under a false name but accepted at the residence, and notes that such incinerators are illegal to operate within Los Angeles County. The discovery comes as a grand jury continues hearing testimony in the case.  Last week, D4VD's record label executive Robert Morgenroth testified for three days and was reportedly grilled by prosecutors about why he didn't contact police after Celeste's body was discovered. An uncooperative female witness now faces arrest after failing to appear for her scheduled testimony. Meanwhile, investigators have reportedly built a detailed digital timeline using Tesla data, phone records, and geolocation evidence — including tracking D4VD to a remote area of Santa Barbara County in the middle of the night last spring.  A second suspect has been identified who authorities believe was involved before, during, and after Celeste's death. D4VD, who has not spoken publicly since the case began, is reportedly considered a suspect by investigators, though no arrests have been made. The cause of death remains under a court-ordered security hold. This video breaks down every new development, what the burn cage discovery means for the investigation, and why the walls appear to be closing in on everyone connected to this case. #D4VD #CelesteRivas #CelesteRivasHernandez #TrueCrime #BurnCage #GrandJury #HollywoodHills #LAPD #TeslaCase #JusticeForCeleste Want to comment and watch this podcast as a video? Check out our YouTube Channel. https://www.youtube.com/@hiddenkillerspod Instagram https://www.instagram.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Facebook https://www.facebook.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Tik-Tok https://www.tiktok.com/@hiddenkillerspod X Twitter https://x.com/tonybpod Listen Ad-Free On Apple Podcasts Here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/true-crime-today-premium-plus-ad-free-advance-episode/id1705422872

A stunning new revelation in the D4VD case: private investigator Steve Fischer has confirmed that an industrial-grade "burn cage" incinerator was discovered inside the Hollywood Hills rental where singer D4VD was living when 14-year-old Celeste Rivas Hernandez's dismembered remains were found in his Tesla. The incinerator, still unopened and in its original packaging, burns at 1,600 degrees Fahrenheit — 200 degrees hotter than what's required for human cremation. Fischer says the device was delivered under a false name but accepted at the residence, and notes that such incinerators are illegal to operate within Los Angeles County. The discovery comes as a grand jury continues hearing testimony in the case.  Last week, D4VD's record label executive Robert Morgenroth testified for three days and was reportedly grilled by prosecutors about why he didn't contact police after Celeste's body was discovered. An uncooperative female witness now faces arrest after failing to appear for her scheduled testimony. Meanwhile, investigators have reportedly built a detailed digital timeline using Tesla data, phone records, and geolocation evidence — including tracking D4VD to a remote area of Santa Barbara County in the middle of the night last spring.  A second suspect has been identified who authorities believe was involved before, during, and after Celeste's death. D4VD, who has not spoken publicly since the case began, is reportedly considered a suspect by investigators, though no arrests have been made. The cause of death remains under a court-ordered security hold. This video breaks down every new development, what the burn cage discovery means for the investigation, and why the walls appear to be closing in on everyone connected to this case. #D4VD #CelesteRivas #CelesteRivasHernandez #TrueCrime #BurnCage #GrandJury #HollywoodHills #LAPD #TeslaCase #JusticeForCeleste Want to comment and watch this podcast as a video? Check out our YouTube Channel. https://www.youtube.com/@hiddenkillerspod Instagram https://www.instagram.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Facebook https://www.facebook.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Tik-Tok https://www.tiktok.com/@hiddenkillerspod X Twitter https://x.com/tonybpod Listen Ad-Free On Apple Podcasts Here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/true-crime-today-premium-plus-ad-free-advance-episode/id1705422872

I dagens afsnit skal vi "se" første halvdel af filmen Sideways fra 2004, som vi taler os igennem mens vi smager på vine fra de vinerier, som er med i filmen.   Undervejs bliver der selvfølgelig også tid til vinnørderi med udgangspunkt i vinene i filmen samt geografi og vejrforhold i området Santa Barbara County.   Vi ser også på, om filmen satte sit præg på merlot og pinot noirs popularitet.   Så smæk benene op og nyd filmen!       Vi smager i dette afsnit på     1) Sanford, chardonnay, Santa Rita Hills, 2022   2) Hitching Post, pinot noir, Sanford & Benedict, Santa Rita Hills, 2018

A bombshell revelation from attorney Mark Geragos has shifted the entire landscape of the Celeste Rivas Hernandez investigation: according to him, LAPD has identified a second suspect. Not the killer — but someone allegedly involved before, during, and after Celeste's death, including the disposal and possible dismemberment of her body. Retired FBI Special Agent Jennifer Coffindaffer joins us to break down what investigators uncovered — and how they uncovered it. Geragos says cellphone data, Tesla GPS, and social-media location tracking created a digital trail accurate “almost to the minute.” One key focus: a late-night trip to a remote area of Santa Barbara County, where investigators believe D4VD spent nearly two hours… and wasn't alone. If a second suspect was with him during that trip, that changes everything. Coffindaffer explains: – How investigators triangulate cell towers, GPS logs, and app metadata – Why Tesla vehicles are digital goldmines for forensic teams – What physical evidence might still exist months later in a remote area – How prosecutors flip secondary suspects with cooperation deals – How freezer storage, disposal access, and vehicle movements elevate legal liability We also explore the possibility that the second suspect parked the Tesla on July 29th — the same day D4VD left for tour — and what that would mean about their role, loyalty, and exposure. With a grand jury active, digital evidence mounting, and a second suspect reportedly identified, the case is shifting from “What happened?” to “Who helped?” #D4VDCase #CelesteRivas #SecondSuspect #DigitalForensics #TeslaData #HiddenKillers #TonyBrueski #JenniferCoffindaffer #TrueCrimePodcast #LegalBreakdown Want to comment and watch this podcast as a video? Check out our YouTube Channel. https://www.youtube.com/@hiddenkillerspod Instagram https://www.instagram.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Facebook https://www.facebook.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Tik-Tok https://www.tiktok.com/@hiddenkillerspod X Twitter https://x.com/tonybpod Listen Ad-Free On Apple Podcasts Here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/true-crime-today-premium-plus-ad-free-advance-episode/id1705422872

A bombshell revelation from attorney Mark Geragos has shifted the entire landscape of the Celeste Rivas Hernandez investigation: according to him, LAPD has identified a second suspect. Not the killer — but someone allegedly involved before, during, and after Celeste's death, including the disposal and possible dismemberment of her body. Retired FBI Special Agent Jennifer Coffindaffer joins us to break down what investigators uncovered — and how they uncovered it. Geragos says cellphone data, Tesla GPS, and social-media location tracking created a digital trail accurate “almost to the minute.” One key focus: a late-night trip to a remote area of Santa Barbara County, where investigators believe D4VD spent nearly two hours… and wasn't alone. If a second suspect was with him during that trip, that changes everything. Coffindaffer explains: – How investigators triangulate cell towers, GPS logs, and app metadata – Why Tesla vehicles are digital goldmines for forensic teams – What physical evidence might still exist months later in a remote area – How prosecutors flip secondary suspects with cooperation deals – How freezer storage, disposal access, and vehicle movements elevate legal liability We also explore the possibility that the second suspect parked the Tesla on July 29th — the same day D4VD left for tour — and what that would mean about their role, loyalty, and exposure. With a grand jury active, digital evidence mounting, and a second suspect reportedly identified, the case is shifting from “What happened?” to “Who helped?” #D4VDCase #CelesteRivas #SecondSuspect #DigitalForensics #TeslaData #HiddenKillers #TonyBrueski #JenniferCoffindaffer #TrueCrimePodcast #LegalBreakdown Want to comment and watch this podcast as a video? Check out our YouTube Channel. https://www.youtube.com/@hiddenkillerspod Instagram https://www.instagram.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Facebook https://www.facebook.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Tik-Tok https://www.tiktok.com/@hiddenkillerspod X Twitter https://x.com/tonybpod Listen Ad-Free On Apple Podcasts Here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/true-crime-today-premium-plus-ad-free-advance-episode/id1705422872

A bombshell revelation from attorney Mark Geragos has shifted the entire landscape of the Celeste Rivas Hernandez investigation: according to him, LAPD has identified a second suspect. Not the killer — but someone allegedly involved before, during, and after Celeste's death, including the disposal and possible dismemberment of her body. Retired FBI Special Agent Jennifer Coffindaffer joins us to break down what investigators uncovered — and how they uncovered it. Geragos says cellphone data, Tesla GPS, and social-media location tracking created a digital trail accurate “almost to the minute.” One key focus: a late-night trip to a remote area of Santa Barbara County, where investigators believe D4VD spent nearly two hours… and wasn't alone. If a second suspect was with him during that trip, that changes everything. Coffindaffer explains: – How investigators triangulate cell towers, GPS logs, and app metadata – Why Tesla vehicles are digital goldmines for forensic teams – What physical evidence might still exist months later in a remote area – How prosecutors flip secondary suspects with cooperation deals – How freezer storage, disposal access, and vehicle movements elevate legal liability We also explore the possibility that the second suspect parked the Tesla on July 29th — the same day D4VD left for tour — and what that would mean about their role, loyalty, and exposure. With a grand jury active, digital evidence mounting, and a second suspect reportedly identified, the case is shifting from “What happened?” to “Who helped?” #D4VDCase #CelesteRivas #SecondSuspect #DigitalForensics #TeslaData #HiddenKillers #TonyBrueski #JenniferCoffindaffer #TrueCrimePodcast #LegalBreakdown Want to comment and watch this podcast as a video? Check out our YouTube Channel. https://www.youtube.com/@hiddenkillerspod Instagram https://www.instagram.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Facebook https://www.facebook.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Tik-Tok https://www.tiktok.com/@hiddenkillerspod X Twitter https://x.com/tonybpod Listen Ad-Free On Apple Podcasts Here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/true-crime-today-premium-plus-ad-free-advance-episode/id1705422872

A bombshell revelation from attorney Mark Geragos has shifted the entire landscape of the Celeste Rivas Hernandez investigation: according to him, LAPD has identified a second suspect. Not the killer — but someone allegedly involved before, during, and after Celeste's death, including the disposal and possible dismemberment of her body. Retired FBI Special Agent Jennifer Coffindaffer joins us to break down what investigators uncovered — and how they uncovered it. Geragos says cellphone data, Tesla GPS, and social-media location tracking created a digital trail accurate “almost to the minute.” One key focus: a late-night trip to a remote area of Santa Barbara County, where investigators believe D4VD spent nearly two hours… and wasn't alone. If a second suspect was with him during that trip, that changes everything. Coffindaffer explains: – How investigators triangulate cell towers, GPS logs, and app metadata – Why Tesla vehicles are digital goldmines for forensic teams – What physical evidence might still exist months later in a remote area – How prosecutors flip secondary suspects with cooperation deals – How freezer storage, disposal access, and vehicle movements elevate legal liability We also explore the possibility that the second suspect parked the Tesla on July 29th — the same day D4VD left for tour — and what that would mean about their role, loyalty, and exposure. With a grand jury active, digital evidence mounting, and a second suspect reportedly identified, the case is shifting from “What happened?” to “Who helped?” #D4VDCase #CelesteRivas #SecondSuspect #DigitalForensics #TeslaData #HiddenKillers #TonyBrueski #JenniferCoffindaffer #TrueCrimePodcast #LegalBreakdown Want to comment and watch this podcast as a video? Check out our YouTube Channel. https://www.youtube.com/@hiddenkillerspod Instagram https://www.instagram.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Facebook https://www.facebook.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Tik-Tok https://www.tiktok.com/@hiddenkillerspod X Twitter https://x.com/tonybpod Listen Ad-Free On Apple Podcasts Here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/true-crime-today-premium-plus-ad-free-advance-episode/id1705422872

A grand jury is actively hearing evidence in the death of 14-year-old Celeste Rivas Hernandez — and what's coming out of that Los Angeles courthouse is raising serious questions about who knew what and when. Robert Morgenroth, the head of D4vd's record label Mogul Vision and president of his touring company, reportedly testified for three days. He was overheard telling his attorney that prosecutors grilled him on why he didn't call police — and his response was that he "didn't feel it was his responsibility" and "just wanted to continue with the tour."  Now a female witness is facing arrest after refusing to appear, with Deputy D.A. Beth Silverman seeking a body attachment to compel her testimony. She shares an attorney with Morgenroth. D4vd remains a suspect in the eyes of LAPD's Robbery-Homicide Division. Investigators reportedly have tracking data placing him in a remote area of Santa Barbara County in the middle of the night during Spring 2025 — the window when Celeste is believed to have died. A second suspect has been identified who allegedly helped with the dismemberment. Celeste's remains were found in D4vd's abandoned Tesla on September 8, 2025. No cause of death has been determined. The pressure is mounting — and the inner circle is cracking. ⚠️ LEGAL NOTICE: D4vd has not been arrested or charged with any crime. He is presumed innocent unless proven guilty in a court of law. All information sourced from law enforcement officials speaking to NBC, ABC, TMZ, and other media outlets.

A grand jury is actively hearing evidence in the death of 14-year-old Celeste Rivas Hernandez — and what's coming out of that Los Angeles courthouse is raising serious questions about who knew what and when. Robert Morgenroth, the head of D4vd's record label Mogul Vision and president of his touring company, reportedly testified for three days. He was overheard telling his attorney that prosecutors grilled him on why he didn't call police — and his response was that he "didn't feel it was his responsibility" and "just wanted to continue with the tour."  Now a female witness is facing arrest after refusing to appear, with Deputy D.A. Beth Silverman seeking a body attachment to compel her testimony. She shares an attorney with Morgenroth. D4vd remains a suspect in the eyes of LAPD's Robbery-Homicide Division. Investigators reportedly have tracking data placing him in a remote area of Santa Barbara County in the middle of the night during Spring 2025 — the window when Celeste is believed to have died. A second suspect has been identified who allegedly helped with the dismemberment. Celeste's remains were found in D4vd's abandoned Tesla on September 8, 2025. No cause of death has been determined. The pressure is mounting — and the inner circle is cracking. ⚠️ LEGAL NOTICE: D4vd has not been arrested or charged with any crime. He is presumed innocent unless proven guilty in a court of law. All information sourced from law enforcement officials speaking to NBC, ABC, TMZ, and other media outlets.

Mark Geragos and Harvey Levin dig into shocking new developments in the death of Celeste Rivas. LAPD detectives have identified a second suspect — someone possibly connected “before, during, and after” the crime. Geragos reveals exclusive details from sources close to the investigation, including how cellphone data, Tesla tracking, and social media location info are helping law enforcement connect the dots. The hosts also explore a mysterious late-night trip D4vd took to rural Santa Barbara County — a move investigators now believe could hold the key to the case.Watch Beyond A Reasonable Doubt and all Reasonable Doubt video content on YouTube exclusively at YouTube.com/ReasonableDoubtPodcast and subscribe while you're thereSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Mark Geragos and Harvey Levin dig into shocking new developments in the death of Celeste Rivas. LAPD detectives have identified a second suspect — someone possibly connected “before, during, and after” the crime. Geragos reveals exclusive details from sources close to the investigation, including how cellphone data, Tesla tracking, and social media location info are helping law enforcement connect the dots. The hosts also explore a mysterious late-night trip D4vd took to rural Santa Barbara County — a move investigators now believe could hold the key to the case. Hosts: Harvey Levin & Mark Geragos Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

"Banfield" has an exclusive in the Melodee Buzzard mystery — Brian Entin talks with a private investigator on the case. Hear what he says Ashlee Buzzard allegedly did to her own daughter's missing posters. And you'll see Buzzard's new dolled-up look as she appears in court. Plus, TMZ's Harvey Levin joins “Banfield' to provide new information about D4vd's mysterious trip to Santa Barbara County. And bombshell court documents reveal a suspect in the death of a cheerleader on a cruise ship ... her own stepbrother.Ashleigh Banfield is *the* definitive authority on the nation`s biggest true crime stories. A veteran award-winning journalist, Ashleigh brings a sharp focus to the crime stories gripping America, distilling facts and analyzing context in a way which captures viewers` interests and imaginations. No one knows the prosecution and the defendants` cases better than BANFIELD, all the while keeping the victim at the heart of every story we tell just another reason NewsNation is truly News for All Americans.Weeknights at 10p/9C. #BanfieldNewsNation is your source for fact-based, unbiased news for all Americans. More from NewsNation: https://www.newsnationnow.com/Get our app: https://trib.al/TBXgYppFind us on cable: https://trib.al/YDOpGyGHow to watch on TV or streaming: https://trib.al/Vu0Ikij

A Santa Barbara County judge ruled Wednesday that Ashlee Buzzard the mother of missing child Melodee Buzzard, will be released from custodySee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Following his big Prop 50 win last week, Governor Gavin Newsom hit the road, denouncing the Democrats' deal to end the federal shutdown, accepting the thanks of worshipful Democrats in Houston, and appearing as the highest-ranking American representative at the U.N.'s climate talks in Brazil. In other news, Golden State Warriors coach Steve Kerr and OpenAI's Sam Altman say they feel bad about making so much money, Santa Barbara County officials stand bravely athwart common sense and yell stop, and a federal judge orders AG Rob Bonta to explain himself on the state's policies regarding gender fluidity in California schools. On this day in history, we remember the Rickenbackers of California -- the World War I flying ace and his guitar-making cousin. Music by Metalachi.Email Us:dbahnsen@thebahnsengroup.comwill@calpolicycenter.orgFollow Us:@DavidBahnsen@WillSwaim@TheRadioFreeCAShow Notes:Newsom, Eyeing 2028, Tries to Mess With Texas: ‘Don't Poke the Bear'Newsom blasts shutdown deal‘China gets it. America is toast,' Newsom warns, blasting US climate driftNewsom in Brazil Blasts Trump, Praises ChinaSable's no good, very bad weekOpenAI's Sam Altman defends Bay Area billionaire when grilled over wealth gapOpenAI is asking for the federal government to help power a massive expansion of its data center networkJudge Orders California Education Officials to Explain Why They Shouldn't Be SanctionedSacramento: Charter school renewal denied by Sacramento school district. What comes next? Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

A mother under arrest. A daughter still missing. And an investigation that keeps stretching across states and logic alike. On Hidden Killers with Tony Brueski, we break down the case of 9-year-old Melodee Buzzard, missing since early October 2025. Her mother, Ashlee Buzzard, was arrested November 7 in Santa Barbara County on a felony false-imprisonment charge with $100,000 bail. The sheriff's office insists this arrest is not directly related to Melodee's disappearance — but investigators rarely say those words without a strategy behind them. Here's the chilling timeline: Ashlee rented a white 2024 Chevy Malibu in Lompoc on October 7. Surveillance later captured wigs, and authorities allege a license-plate swap during the trip. The last verified sighting of Melodee occurred near the Utah-Colorado border on October 9. Days later, Ashlee returned to California — without her daughter. Former FBI Special Agent Jennifer Coffindaffer joins Tony and Stacy Cole to decode what “not directly related” really means — and how investigators may be using this charge as a containment tool while reconstructing Melodee's final known route. From vehicle forensics to cell-tower triangulation and search-grid coordination, we analyze the likely behind-the-scenes maneuvers law enforcement won't yet discuss publicly. We also examine the psychology of silence — when a parent refuses to cooperate, how do investigators keep hope alive without compromising the case? And what should the public be looking for right now that could truly help? This story is still unfolding. And somewhere along that route between Lompoc and Utah, the answers may still exist. #MelodeeBuzzard #AshleeBuzzard #HiddenKillers #TonyBrueski #JenniferCoffindaffer #TrueCrimeToday #MissingChild #FalseImprisonment #SantaBarbara #UtahColoradoBorder Want to comment and watch this podcast as a video? Check out our YouTube Channel. https://www.youtube.com/@hiddenkillerspod Instagram https://www.instagram.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Facebook https://www.facebook.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Tik-Tok https://www.tiktok.com/@hiddenkillerspod X Twitter https://x.com/tonybpod Listen Ad-Free On Apple Podcasts Here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/true-crime-today-premium-plus-ad-free-advance-episode/id1705422872

A mother under arrest. A daughter still missing. And an investigation that keeps stretching across states and logic alike. On Hidden Killers with Tony Brueski, we break down the case of 9-year-old Melodee Buzzard, missing since early October 2025. Her mother, Ashlee Buzzard, was arrested November 7 in Santa Barbara County on a felony false-imprisonment charge with $100,000 bail. The sheriff's office insists this arrest is not directly related to Melodee's disappearance — but investigators rarely say those words without a strategy behind them. Here's the chilling timeline: Ashlee rented a white 2024 Chevy Malibu in Lompoc on October 7. Surveillance later captured wigs, and authorities allege a license-plate swap during the trip. The last verified sighting of Melodee occurred near the Utah-Colorado border on October 9. Days later, Ashlee returned to California — without her daughter. Former FBI Special Agent Jennifer Coffindaffer joins Tony and Stacy Cole to decode what “not directly related” really means — and how investigators may be using this charge as a containment tool while reconstructing Melodee's final known route. From vehicle forensics to cell-tower triangulation and search-grid coordination, we analyze the likely behind-the-scenes maneuvers law enforcement won't yet discuss publicly. We also examine the psychology of silence — when a parent refuses to cooperate, how do investigators keep hope alive without compromising the case? And what should the public be looking for right now that could truly help? This story is still unfolding. And somewhere along that route between Lompoc and Utah, the answers may still exist. #MelodeeBuzzard #AshleeBuzzard #HiddenKillers #TonyBrueski #JenniferCoffindaffer #TrueCrimeToday #MissingChild #FalseImprisonment #SantaBarbara #UtahColoradoBorder Want to comment and watch this podcast as a video? Check out our YouTube Channel. https://www.youtube.com/@hiddenkillerspod Instagram https://www.instagram.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Facebook https://www.facebook.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Tik-Tok https://www.tiktok.com/@hiddenkillerspod X Twitter https://x.com/tonybpod Listen Ad-Free On Apple Podcasts Here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/true-crime-today-premium-plus-ad-free-advance-episode/id1705422872

A mother under arrest. A daughter still missing. And an investigation that keeps stretching across states and logic alike. On Hidden Killers with Tony Brueski, we break down the case of 9-year-old Melodee Buzzard, missing since early October 2025. Her mother, Ashlee Buzzard, was arrested November 7 in Santa Barbara County on a felony false-imprisonment charge with $100,000 bail. The sheriff's office insists this arrest is not directly related to Melodee's disappearance — but investigators rarely say those words without a strategy behind them. Here's the chilling timeline: Ashlee rented a white 2024 Chevy Malibu in Lompoc on October 7. Surveillance later captured wigs, and authorities allege a license-plate swap during the trip. The last verified sighting of Melodee occurred near the Utah-Colorado border on October 9. Days later, Ashlee returned to California — without her daughter. Former FBI Special Agent Jennifer Coffindaffer joins Tony and Stacy Cole to decode what “not directly related” really means — and how investigators may be using this charge as a containment tool while reconstructing Melodee's final known route. From vehicle forensics to cell-tower triangulation and search-grid coordination, we analyze the likely behind-the-scenes maneuvers law enforcement won't yet discuss publicly. We also examine the psychology of silence — when a parent refuses to cooperate, how do investigators keep hope alive without compromising the case? And what should the public be looking for right now that could truly help? This story is still unfolding. And somewhere along that route between Lompoc and Utah, the answers may still exist. #MelodeeBuzzard #AshleeBuzzard #HiddenKillers #TonyBrueski #JenniferCoffindaffer #TrueCrimeToday #MissingChild #FalseImprisonment #SantaBarbara #UtahColoradoBorder Want to comment and watch this podcast as a video? Check out our YouTube Channel. https://www.youtube.com/@hiddenkillerspod Instagram https://www.instagram.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Facebook https://www.facebook.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Tik-Tok https://www.tiktok.com/@hiddenkillerspod X Twitter https://x.com/tonybpod Listen Ad-Free On Apple Podcasts Here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/true-crime-today-premium-plus-ad-free-advance-episode/id1705422872

A mother under arrest. A daughter still missing. And an investigation that keeps stretching across states and logic alike. On Hidden Killers with Tony Brueski, we break down the case of 9-year-old Melodee Buzzard, missing since early October 2025. Her mother, Ashlee Buzzard, was arrested November 7 in Santa Barbara County on a felony false-imprisonment charge with $100,000 bail. The sheriff's office insists this arrest is not directly related to Melodee's disappearance — but investigators rarely say those words without a strategy behind them. Here's the chilling timeline: Ashlee rented a white 2024 Chevy Malibu in Lompoc on October 7. Surveillance later captured wigs, and authorities allege a license-plate swap during the trip. The last verified sighting of Melodee occurred near the Utah-Colorado border on October 9. Days later, Ashlee returned to California — without her daughter. Former FBI Special Agent Jennifer Coffindaffer joins Tony and Stacy Cole to decode what “not directly related” really means — and how investigators may be using this charge as a containment tool while reconstructing Melodee's final known route. From vehicle forensics to cell-tower triangulation and search-grid coordination, we analyze the likely behind-the-scenes maneuvers law enforcement won't yet discuss publicly. We also examine the psychology of silence — when a parent refuses to cooperate, how do investigators keep hope alive without compromising the case? And what should the public be looking for right now that could truly help? This story is still unfolding. And somewhere along that route between Lompoc and Utah, the answers may still exist. #MelodeeBuzzard #AshleeBuzzard #HiddenKillers #TonyBrueski #JenniferCoffindaffer #TrueCrimeToday #MissingChild #FalseImprisonment #SantaBarbara #UtahColoradoBorder Want to comment and watch this podcast as a video? Check out our YouTube Channel. https://www.youtube.com/@hiddenkillerspod Instagram https://www.instagram.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Facebook https://www.facebook.com/hiddenkillerspod/ Tik-Tok https://www.tiktok.com/@hiddenkillerspod X Twitter https://x.com/tonybpod Listen Ad-Free On Apple Podcasts Here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/true-crime-today-premium-plus-ad-free-advance-episode/id1705422872

The mother of 9-year-old Melodee Buzzard, who has been missing since early October, was arrested Friday by Santa Barbara County sheriff’s deputies, but officials said the arrest was unrelated to her daughter’s disappearance. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mary Had a Little Lamb by Adrian M Hurtado https://www.amazon.com/Mary-Little-Lamb-Adrian-Hurtado/dp/1647498600 The celebration of Christmas has nothing to do with a fictional character in a red suit, or flying reindeer. It is about the birth and life of Jesus Christ. He is the true reason for the season. Now you can read about His life in an illustrated and poetic form that touches on many of the important aspects of His life. Parents will want to share this story with their children and with their friends.About the author Adrian M. Hurtado was born in Berkeley, CA and raised in the East Bay area. He is a former teacher and principal, having served more than 25 years in schools in Orange County, Los Angeles County, and Santa Barbara County, California. He always enjoyed working with students and in finding ways to make learning interesting and fun. Now he seeks to carry on that delight through books that students can enjoy and their parents can enjoy reading to them and with them. Adrian also served in the Marine Corps and Air Force Reserve, retiring at the rank of Major. He and his wife, Jean, a former kindergarten teacher and his biggest encourager, have retired to the little beach town of Cayucos, CA where he is actively involved in community service.

As multiple states sue the Trump administration over new cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, local advocates warn the effects will be felt close to home where thousands of Santa Barbara County residents rely on CalFresh and Foodbank support to put food on the table. KCSB'S Saniaa Ambardekar has the story.

CASE 1: WHERE IS MELODEE BUZZARD? Nine-year-old Melodee Buzzard vanished from Vandenberg Village, California, and her mother refuses to tell investigators where she is. We explore the troubling circumstances surrounding her disappearance, including a mysterious 1,500-mile road trip to Nebraska, years of systematic family isolation, and the lack of educational oversight. Evidence suggests Melodee was last seen on October 7th, 2025. The FBI has joined the search, but her mother, Ashlee Buzzard, remains completely uncooperative. Why won't she tell authorities where her daughter is? What happened during that cross-country trip? And most importantly, is Melodee safe? CASE 2: THE DEATH OF JACQUELINE "MIMI" TORRES-GARCIAIn October 2025, the body of 11-year-old Jacqueline Torres-Garcia was found in a storage bin outside an abandoned house in New Britain, Connecticut. Her mother and her mother's boyfriend admitted to police that they starved the child, restrained her with zip ties, and left her to die while other family members watched.These are stories of systemic failures, community activism, and the urgent need for better protections for vulnerable children. Resources:Santa Barbara County Sheriff's Office: 805-681-4150Anonymous Tip Line: 805-681-4171Online Tips: SBSheriff.orgKeywords: Melodee Buzzard, Jacqueline Torres-Garcia, Mimi Torres-Garcia, missing child, California missing person, New Britain Connecticut, child abuse case, true crime podcast, FBI investigation, child welfare failures, homeschooling regulations, family isolation, child neglect, systemic failures, DCF investigation, child protection, mandatory reporters, Vandenberg Village, Santa Barbara County, Karla Garcia, Ashlee Buzzard, child safety awareness, invisible children, active investigations, current cases, child starvation, uncooperative parent, community activism, child cruelty.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/we-saw-the-devil-a-true-crime-podcast--4433638/support.Website: http://www.wesawthedevil.comPatreon: http://www.patreon.com/wesawthedevilDiscord: https://discord.gg/X2qYXdB4Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/WeSawtheDevilInstagram: http://www.instagram.com/wesawthedevilpodcast.

Notes and Links to Myriam Gurba's Work       Myriam Gurba is a writer and activist. Her first book, the short story collection Dahlia Season, won the Edmund White Award for Debut Fiction. O, the Oprah Magazine ranked her true-crime memoir Mean as one of the “Best LGBTQ Books of All Time.” Her recent essay collection Creep: Accusations and Confessions was a finalist for a National Book Critics Circle award for Criticism, and won the Lambda Literary Award for Bisexual Nonfiction. She has written for the New York Times, Los Angeles Times, Harper's Bazaar, Vox, and Paris Review. Her next book, Poppy State: A Labyrinth of Plants and a Story of Beginnings, published by Timber Press, is out today, October 21. Buy Poppy State: A Labyrinth of Plants and a Story of Beginnings   Myriam's Website   Los Angeles Daily News Review of Poppy State: A Labyrinth of Plants and a Story of Beginnings At about 1:50, Myriam discusses her mindset as the book is to be published, and she shares early feedback and reviews At about 4:05, Myriam talks about being inspired a bit by Borges' short story collection, Labyrinths, and more so from mythologies for Mesoamerica and the Minotaur At about 5:20, Myriam defines an important term At about 6:30, Myriam talks about writing from the perspective of a child and connections to The Secret Garden At about 8:30, “halycon” talk! At about 9:20, Myriam talks about the book's epigraph/opening saying, which comes from Myriam's grandfather Ricardo Serrano Ríos, as well as an early message/challenge to the reader At about 12:30, Myriam responds to Pete's questions about the differences between carefree childhoods and an encroaching world of homes and development, and nature being pushed aside At about 14:55, Myriam provides background on the book's main locale, Santa Maria, and its changes in her lifetime At about 15:45, The two talk about “claiming” of land and “renaming” and its connection to colonization  At about 18:20, Myriam discusses "indigeneity imposed from outside” in relation to a profound quote Pete notes from the book At about 20:20, Myriam talks about Western terms and ideas that make it difficult to describe and document Chumash and other indigenous contemporary life and geographical boundaries  At about 22:15, Myriam shares the story from the book about Deborah Miranda and a young child's shocked realization  At about 24:15, Pete notes some great puns, and Myriam expands on multiple meanings of “hoja” and connections between literacy and botany and the At about 26:05, Myriam talks about her use of The Santa Maria Times and its archive in building a history of the “settler town through the perspective of settlers”  At about 28:00, Myriam highlights Santa Maria-born Ida Mae Bochmann as an example of a certain time of progressive and colonizing woman  At about 30:20, Myriam reflect on the “communal garden” that was pre-European California At about 32:00, Pete and Myriam discuss the importance of paper and indigenous practices and priorities  At about 35:10, Myriam responds to Pete's questions about how she balances the macro- and the micro-, the allegorical and literal At about 36:45, BARS At about 39:30, “allegorical memoir” and “botanical criticism” are two possible genres that Myriam imagines for her "kaleidoscopic" book; she also talks about her love of writing and solving puzzles At about 42:00, Corn talk! Myriam shares some frightening stories about encounters with Midwestern cornfields  At about 45:50, The two discuss a resonant homecoming scene  At about 47:10, Myriam reflects on how local travel and local appreciation inform her argument about “[our] homes hav[ing] multitudes” At about 48:45, The two discuss the humungous industry that is agriculture, and Myriam talks about focusing in on Santa Barbara County's strawberry industry At about 51:30, Myriam talks about the history of Japanese-American farmers dispossessed by the internment camps of World War II At about 53:45, Myriam makes salient points about catharsis, emphasizing its conditionality-she cites “conditional catharsis”-and chats about susto and “cleansing” At about 58:50, Myriam talks about “the ethos of the local” and recommends Octavia's Bookshelf and The Theodore Payne Society , and she also shares book tour events      You can now subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts, and leave me a five-star review. You can also ask for the podcast by name using Alexa, and find the pod on Stitcher, Spotify, and on Amazon Music. Follow Pete on IG, where he is @chillsatwillpodcast, or on Twitter, where he is @chillsatwillpo1. You can watch other episodes on YouTube-watch and subscribe to The Chills at Will Podcast Channel. Please subscribe to both the YouTube Channel and the podcast while you're checking out this episode.       Pete is very excited to have one or two podcast episodes per month featured on the website of Chicago Review of Books. The audio will be posted, along with a written interview culled from the audio. His conversation with Hannah Pittard, a recent guest, is up at Chicago Review.     Sign up now for The Chills at Will Podcast Patreon: it can be found at patreon.com/chillsatwillpodcastpeterriehl      Check out the page that describes the benefits of a Patreon membership, including cool swag and bonus episodes. Thanks in advance for supporting Pete's one-man show, DIY podcast and extensive reading, research, editing, and promoting to keep this independent podcast pumping out high-quality content!    This month's Patreon bonus episode features an exploration of flawed characters, protagonists who are too real in their actions, and horror and noir as being where so much good and realistic writing takes place.    Pete has added a $1 a month tier for “Well-Wishers” and Cheerleaders of the Show.     This is a passion project, a DIY operation, and Pete would love for your help in promoting what he's convinced is a unique and spirited look at an often-ignored art form.    The intro song for The Chills at Will Podcast is “Wind Down” (Instrumental Version), and the other song played on this episode was “Hoops” (Instrumental)” by Matt Weidauer, and both songs are used through ArchesAudio.com.     Please tune in for Episode 306 with Shea Serrano, an American author, journalist, humorist, and former teacher. He is best known for his work with the sports and pop culture websites, The Ringer and Grantland, as well as his books, including The Rap Year Book, Basketball and Movies, all of which charted on The New York Times best-sellers list.      The episode drops on  Pub Day, October 28, the date the episode airs.    Please go to ceasefiretoday.org, and/or https://act.uscpr.org/a/letaidin to call your congresspeople and demand an end to the forced famine and destruction of Gaza and the Gazan people.

Kendall-Jackson's chardonnay is made using grapes grown in the cool, coastal regions of California, which gives the wine its crisp, clean flavor. Whole cluster pressed and made in small vineyard lots throughout the winemaking process. Sur lie aging with monthly battonage (lees stirring) giving the wine silky texture and creamy flavor. Aged for 3 months in 44% French Oak (4% new) and 50% American Oak (7% new).Tonight, our three wines are:2023 Louis Dailly Fondateur Chablis. This wine costs around $17.00 and was purchased at Costco. It comes from Chablis region of Burgundy. It has notes of apples, wet stones and lemons. It is medium-bodied, clean and fresh. Drink now.2023 Kendall-Jackson Vintner's Reserve Chardonnay. This was purchased from Costco for $11.00. This is the #1 selling Chardonnay in the US for the past 30-years. It comes from cool coastal climates. 13.5% alcohol. Aromas of vanilla and honey. Flavors of pineapple, mango, papaya, with notes of citrus. Also has a hint of toasted oak and butter. Comes from California, 48% Monterey County, 29% Mendocino County, and 23% Santa Barbara County. Pairs well with fish dishes. We both enjoyed both wines, but we both preferred the Kendall-Jackson. This surprised both of us since we typically like unoaked Chardonnay. Next week, we are getting ready for the holidays and will be tasting the Kirkland Signature Brut Champagne.

Authorities in Santa Barbara County launched a search for a 9-year-old girl who has not been seen in a year, and who has not been seen in a photograph in two.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Cambria is a women-owned, women-led producer of 100% certified sustainable, estate-grown Chardonnay and Pinot Noir in the Santa Maria Valley AVA in Santa Barbara County, California.Founder Barbara Banke was an early champion of the region and established Cambria Winery in 1986. Barbara's two daughters are co-proprietors of the winery and the namesakes for the two main vineyards, Julia's Vineyard and Katherine's Vineyard. A winemaker's paradise, the estate is situated on a West Coast transverse valley a rare geological feature that funnels in Pacific Ocean breezes and blankets the vines in maritime fog, creating one of California's longest growing seasons. The ocean influences the soils as well, with seashells and fossils lending a signature Santa Maria spice note to the Pinot Noirs. Winemaker Jill Russell believes that “happy people make great wine” and passionately crafts wines that show the best of the estate and are prized for their texture, harmony, and energy. Jill leads vineyard and cellar crews who have worked at Cambria on average for more than 20 years and whose drive for excellence earned Cambria the title of a Top 100 Winery of 2020 from Wine & Spirits. 

In this episode, we explore the profound interconnections between land and sea with legendary marine scientist Sylvia Earle. Discover how our understanding of the ocean has evolved, the critical role it plays in Earth's climate and chemistry, and the urgent need for conservation. Join us as we unveil the mysteries of the ocean and the vital importance of protecting our planet's life support system. Support the Podcast via PayPal https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=LBGXTRM292TFC&source=url We also feature an excerpt of the documentary about Blue Latitudes Foundation's expedition to the SeaVentures Dive Rig off the island of Mabul in Malaysia. The interest was to research, document, and explore the ecological, economic and social implications of repurposing an oil and gas structure as an ecotourism dive resort. The documentary was produced along with Matador Network. For an extended interview and other benefits, become an EcoJustice Radio patron at https://www.patreon.com/ecojusticeradio Sources: Sylvia Earle TED Talk excerpt 2009: https://youtu.be/43DuLcBFxoY Chumash of Santa Barbara County songs: https://www.chumashmedicinewoman.com/stories-songs/ Sylvia Earle talk courtesy of Rivian South Coast Theater, Laguna Beach. “Rigs to Reefs: Transecting Borneo,” featuring Amber Sparks and Emily Hazelwood, Directed by Scott Sporleder from Matador Network. https://youtu.be/J0IG8R6ymrI?si=dDmcDekHowUeV4Fn Sylvia Earle PhD is President and Chairman of Mission Blue and The Sylvia Earle Alliance [https://missionblue.org/]. She is a National Geographic Society Explorer in Residence, and is called Her Deepness by the New Yorker and the New York Times, Living Legend by the Library of Congress, and first Hero for the Planet by Time Magazine. She is an oceanographer, explorer, author and lecturer with experience as a field research scientist, government official, and director for several corporate and non-profit organizations. Amber Sparks, Co-President of Blue Latitudes Foundation [https://www.bluelatitudesfoundation.org/], is a marine biologist, educator, and entrepreneur. She has a B.A. in Marine Science from UC Berkeley and a M.A.S in Marine Biodiversity and Conservation from Scripps Institution of Oceanography. In 2018 Amber and Emily were recognized on Forbes 30 Under 30 list in the energy sector for their work developing sustainable, creative, and cost-effective solutions for the environmental issues that surround the offshore energy industry. Emily Hazelwood, Co-President of Blue Latitudes Foundation, is a marine conservation biologist, offshore energy consultant, and entrepreneur. She has a B.A. in Environmental Science from Connecticut College and an M.A.S degree in Marine Biodiversity and Conservation from Scripps Institution of Oceanography. As a leader and explorer, Emily is committed to elevating the scientific understanding of our oceans in communities worldwide and she volunteers her time as a science educator at schools across the country. Jack Eidt is an urban planner, environmental journalist, and climate organizer, as well as award-winning fiction writer. He is Co-Founder of SoCal 350 Climate Action and Executive Producer of EcoJustice Radio. He writes a column on PBS SoCal called High & Dry [https://www.pbssocal.org/people/high-dry]. He is also Founder and Publisher of WilderUtopia [https://wilderutopia.com], a website dedicated to the question of Earth sustainability, finding society-level solutions to environmental, community, economic, transportation and energy needs. Podcast Website: http://ecojusticeradio.org/ Podcast Blog: https://www.wilderutopia.com/category/ecojustice-radio/ Support the Podcast: Patreon https://www.patreon.com/ecojusticeradio PayPal https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=LBGXTRM292TFC&source=url Executive Producer and Host: Jack Eidt Engineer and Original Music: Blake Quake Beats Episode 269 Photo credit: Amber Sparks

Alma Rosa Winery in Santa Barbara County's Sta. Rita Hills is dedicated to making Pinot Noir, Chardonnay and Rhône varietal wines that express the unique terroir of the appellation. Alma Rosa's wines are layered, vibrant and balanced, reflecting the cool-climate influence from the nearby Pacific Ocean. Founded in 2005 by Richard Sanford—the first to plant Pinot Noir in the Sta. Rita Hills in 1971, Alma Rosa continues to build its legacy of pioneering excellence. In 2014, Bob and Barb Zorich purchased the winery and have since committed to elevating the winery in all aspects. In 2019, Samra Morris took the helm as winemaker and is now recognized as one of the region's top winemakers. Alma Rosa is a must-visit destination, with two unique locations: the chic indoor-outdoor tasting room in downtown Solvang and the historic Ranch House located on the winery's breathtaking 628-acre estate off Santa Rosa Road in Buellton.

Join Central Coast winery ambassador Wendi Hammond as she interviews winemaker Greg Brewer on his newest item, Ex Post Facto Pinot Noir.

TRAVEL SCAMS - This week, Scam Squad host Patti Teel and Chief D.A. Investigator Kristina Perkins, discuss the latest travel scams, in particular airline ticket booking scams. Investigator Perkins also discusses other scams that are currently attacking Santa Barbara County and the Nation. Be sure to listen to this episode if you are planning to travel or fly soon.

Isla Vista landlords are suing the county of Santa Barbara over a pilot rental inspection program requiring them to perform increased checks on properties. KCSB's Emerson Good talks to both Eleanor Gartner, District Representative at Santa Barbara County and the landlord association's attorney Lacy Taylor to hear more.

Today we look at the Courier Scams that had been surging in Santa Barbara County, the State, and the Nation. Courier Scams are when a Grandparents Scam, Kidnapping Scam, Extortion Scam, or similar scams where the crooks have remotely pressured the victims into agreeing to hand over large amounts of money in the form of cash, gift cards, gold coins, etc to a courier that shows up at the victims location, receives the money, packages it, and sends it off by mail, ups, fed-x or other means.

KCSB's Tatiana Jacquez brings you the latest in immigration news in Santa Barbara County.

It's been a week since President Donald Trump signed the budget reconciliation bill into law, and California officials are still reviewing how this legislation will impact Medi-Cal, the state's Medicaid program for low-income residents, which covers 15 million Californians. Governor Gavin Newsom's office estimates that Medi-Cal could lose billions of federal dollars over the next few years, and on social media, folks on Medi-Cal are worried that they could lose their coverage soon. Guest: Carlos Cabrera Lomeli, KQED Federal authorities conducting an immigration raid at a legal cannabis farm in Ventura County clashed with demonstrators on Thursday. Reporter: Susana Canales Barron, Calo News An immigration sweep also took place at a cannabis farm in the Santa Barbara County community of Carpinteria. Reporter: Lance Orozco, KCLU Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tonight, our Nightcap is inspired by the internal heat of Carbinic Maceration. This unique process starts inside each berry and transforms into energetic and expressive wine. Allie brings us one of our favorites, Love You Bunches, and wine that helped start the Carbonic revolution in Santa Barbara County and beyond. Curl up on the couch with your favorite beverage and gather with us. Cheers!Support the showCONNECT WITH US: You can follow and message us on Instagram @joinblackthorn You can also reach out via email - gather@joinblackthorn.com If you want to help support the show and get extra content every week, sign up for the paid tier of our Patreon newsletter, The Vault. Finally, we're more than just a podcast! We are an online wine club, a secret wine society and more. Discover the world of Blackthorn at www.joinblackthorn.com Cheers and thanks for listening!

The Santa Barbara County Grand Jury recently released a report detailing the lack of data available on vaccination rates in the county. KCSB's Devon Szalva explains what the report found.

The Housing Authority of Santa Barbara County presented a year-in-review for the Buena Tierra Permanent Supportive Housing Residence, and updates on the success and struggles they've faced since its opening last May. KCSB's Tatiana Jacquez has more on the story.

What do a 1946 Western film, a fight for independence in the Balkans, a celebrity Engagement, a Fulbright Scholarship and Baskin-Robbins ice cream have in common? They are all part of the life story of a charismatic, hardworking, and big dreaming winemaker. Meet Sonja Magdevski of Clementine Carter Wines in Santa Barbara County's Los Alamos, where she's one of the OGs who turned the sleepy little town into a must visit wine destination.But, her first job in wine was planting a vineyard with no experience.We explore how Sonja fell in love with Grenache, her pioneering role in the Los Alamos wine community and her passion for storytelling through both wine and writing. Join us for an inspiring conversation about taking risks, following unexpected paths, and creating something truly unique. We're excited to have Sonja, a fellow journalist and an inspiration to so many people, joining us to share her story.

What do a 1946 Western film, a fight for independence in the Balkans, a celebrity Engagement, a Fulbright Scholarship and Baskin-Robbins ice cream have in common? They are all part of the life story of a charismatic, hardworking, and big dreaming winemaker. Meet Sonja Magdevski of ⁠Clementine Carter Wines⁠ in Santa Barbara County's Los Alamos, where she's one of the OGs who turned the sleepy little town into a must visit wine destination.But, her first job in wine was planting a vineyard with no experience.We explore how Sonja fell in love with Grenache, her pioneering role in the Los Alamos wine community and her passion for storytelling through both wine and writing. Join us for an inspiring conversation about taking risks, following unexpected paths, and creating something truly unique. We're excited to have Sonja, a fellow journalist and an inspiration to so many people, joining us to share her story.

As concerns of climate change rise across the nation, Santa Barbara County's Board of Supervisors held a hearing to address these concerns by county members and local organizations. KCSB's Tatiana Jacquez has the story.

A group of endangered steelhead trout that survived relocation during the Palisades fire has begun to flourish in Santa Barbara County. KCSB's Nicolás Brown-Corrada has more.

In this special Earth Day episode, Julia chats with 89-year-old marine biologist and oceanographer Dr. Sylvia Earle, who joins from a boat in the Gulf of Mexico. Sylvia shares what it's like to walk untethered on the ocean floor, how her first dive changed her life, and the ocean's vital role in our survival. Plus, Julia tells a comical story about the one-and-only time she went scuba diving. She and her 91-year-old mom, Judy, also reminisce about snorkeling adventures and a unique 90th birthday gift from Judy’s grandsons. The introduction to this episode was finalized on 4/16/25. The pipeline in Santa Barbara County is an evolving story. Learn more about the pipeline and donate at the Environmental Defense Center. Follow Wiser Than Me on Instagram and TikTok @wiserthanme and on Facebook at facebook.com/wiserthanmepodcast. Keep up with Sylvia @sylviaearle on X and @dr.sylviaearle on Instagram. Find out more about other shows on our network at @lemonadamedia on all social platforms. Joining Lemonada Premium is a great way to support our shows and get bonus content. Subscribe today on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. For exclusive discount codes and more information about our sponsors, visit https://lemonadamedia.com/sponsors/. For additional resources, information, and a transcript of the episode, visit lemonadamedia.com.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Amid news of oversupply and decreased demand, the wine industry has an opportunity to adapt to the changing market. Audra Cooper, Director of Grape Brokerage, and Eddie Urman, Central Coast Grape Broker at Turrentine Brokerage, discuss key grape and wine industry trends, from oversupply and vineyard removals to the growing necessity of sustainable certification. They explore regional dynamics, bulk wine market shifts, and future trends, emphasizing innovation, industry collaboration, and better marketing to stay competitive. Resources:         REGISTER: 4/5/25 Fungicide Spraying: Evolving Strategies & Grower Insights Tailgate 258: 5 Ways Certification Makes Brands the SIP | Marketing Tip Monday 259: Winegrape Market Trends of 2024 265: How to Stand Out on Social Media in 2025 268: How to Tackle Leadership Transitions Successfully Turrentine Brokerage Turrentine Brokerage - Newsletter Vineyard Team Programs: Juan Nevarez Memorial Scholarship - Donate SIP Certified – Show your care for the people and planet   Sustainable Ag Expo – The premiere winegrowing event of the year Vineyard Team – Become a Member Get More Subscribe wherever you listen so you never miss an episode on the latest science and research with the Sustainable Winegrowing Podcast. Since 1994, Vineyard Team has been your resource for workshops and field demonstrations, research, and events dedicated to the stewardship of our natural resources. Learn more at www.vineyardteam.org.   Transcript [00:00:00] Beth Vukmanic: Amid news of oversupply and decreased demand, the wine industry has an opportunity to adapt to the changing market. [00:00:11] Welcome to Sustainable Wine, growing with the Vineyard team, where we bring you the latest in science and research for the wine industry. I'm Beth Vukmanic executive director. [00:00:22] In today's podcast, Craig McMillan, critical resource Manager at Niner Wine Estates. With Longtime SIP Certified Vineyard, and the first ever SIP certified winery speaks with Audra Cooper, director of Grape Brokerage and Eddie Urman, central Coast Grape Broker At Turrentine Brokerage, [00:00:41] they discuss key grape and wine industry trends from oversupply to vineyard removals to the growing necessity of sustainable certification. They explore regional dynamics, bulk wine market shifts and future trends. Emphasizing innovation, industry collaboration, and better marketing to stay competitive. [00:01:01] If you love infield education and are on California Central Coast on April 25th, 2025, please join us at the fungicide spring tailgate hosted at Cal Poly. In San Luis Obispo, California, Dr. Shunping Ding will share updated results from a 2024 study on fungicide programs using bio fungicides and their impact on grape yield and berry chemistry. Then we'll visit the Cal Poly Vineyard to explore new powdered mildew management technologies and discuss fungicide spraying programs. With farmers from throughout the central coast to register, go to vineyard team.org/events or look for the link in the show notes. [00:01:44] Craig Macmillan: Our guests today are Audra Cooper. She's Director of Grape Brokerage with Turrentine Brokerage. And also, Eddie Urman, who's Central Coast Grape Broker with Turrentine Brokerage as well. And thanks for coming back. This is part two of a, of a, of an episode here. So, I really appreciate you folks making time to come back. [00:02:00] Audra Cooper: Thank you for having us back. We're excited to join you once again. [00:02:04] Eddie Urman: Yeah, thanks for having us. [00:02:05] Craig Macmillan: So Audra, let's start with you. In our last conversation . [00:02:17] And that was kind of where we left it that then started a conversation amongst the three of us afterward. We were like, okay, there's a lot more to talk about here. So let's do it. [00:02:24] Can you give some examples of what you mean by getting ahead of changes? [00:02:30] Audra Cooper: I think it's a sound business strategy to always try and stay ahead of the curve regardless of what component of business or what industry you're in, right? It's just a, a good strategy to have and a good philosophy to have. It's really important in this industry to continue to stay relevant and in order to stay relevant, you have to stay within the trend or ahead of the trend. [00:02:51] Being behind the eight ball is, never a good thing . You need to be ahead of the curve. A good example of that is sustainable certification. And we still have these discussions on the daily and Eddie, you can talk to this too about how often we have to talk about if you're not sustainably certified, you are cutting your buyer pool, probably roughly in half, as I mentioned in the previous podcast, and you're limiting yourself. [00:03:18] And the majority of the practices, most growers are probably already doing, and they're just not going through the certification process and getting that done. And if you look back a little over a decade ago, it was something that wineries were paying, you know, 25, 50 per ton more for, they were paying a premium. [00:03:36] And then it became more of a, this is really nice to have. And so more and more growers We're doing it as a point of differentiation in their marketing. And now today it's almost a necessity. It's no longer something that's necessarily going to get you a premium price for your grapes. It's also not necessarily a point of differentiation any longer. [00:03:55] It's a need to have. [00:03:57] Craig Macmillan: Yeah, Eddie, do you have anything to add to that? [00:03:59] Eddie Urman: No, I think that's a great example. , Audra offered up. [00:04:02] Craig Macmillan: So there's, trends around that, and there's a lot of certifications now, and I agree, I think a lot of folks don't need to be afraid of whatever the certification is, because you're probably doing a lot of those things already, a lot of common practices. [00:04:13] I think that's an interesting insight that now it's kind of becoming expected or certainly a requirement for a lot of wineries. [00:04:19] Let's talk about changes in acreage. That's where we left off last time when we were talking about the difference between vineyard removals, which have been suggested, recommended, et cetera, by a number of folks in the industry as we just are in oversupply period I've heard estimates that we may have 30 to 35, 000 acres of grapes, more than we need based on current demand. [00:04:40] how accurate do you think that is? , how bad is it on the supply side? [00:04:45] Audra Cooper: Well, I think you have a couple parts to that question, right? Let's dissect that a little bit and start with, we just got back from the Unified Wine Grape Symposium in Sacramento, and of course, during the State of the Industry, Jeff Bitter gave his annual synopsis of the nursery survey that they do annually on how many vines were sold, and they do a, A lot of data work in regards to what were removals and his number that he reported over the last two years was 37, 500 acres have been removed from the state of California. [00:05:15] He believes based on their research that another 50, 000 acres need to be removed to reach the point of balance, assuming that consumption stays at its current rate or drops just a tiny bit. [00:05:29] And when we look at our information internally, now we don't do a survey like Allied does, but we're tracking a lot of information, both with our winery partners as well as our grower partners in regards to who's doing what, and our number's a little bit higher, but we also go back four years technically going back to 2022, our number for the state of California is closer to about 50, 000 acres that have been removed, and, you know, I would argue that If consumption stays flat, certainly there will need more removals, but I don't know about 50, 000 acres more. [00:06:04] That seems like an awful lot of acres that need to be removed. If his numbers are right, that would put us back to Basically global recession numbers, which would be around 500, 000 acres bearing.  [00:06:16] Craig Macmillan: right. in the Grape Crush Report, which is an annual report that's put out by, uh, California Department Of Food and Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service, there is a non bearing acres section in there, which I always find very interesting. Are we able to glean anything from that data in terms of what's been sold, what we think's gonna go back in, et cetera? [00:06:39] I want to put a timestamp on this. So this is being recorded first week of February, 2025. So the unified was in 2025. The report that's coming out is going to be for the 2024 year. [00:06:48] What can we learn from that non bearing acreage report?  [00:06:51] Audra Cooper: So there's two different reports. the acreage report will be coming out a little bit later in the year. We're going to have our crush report come out on February 10. I think you can glean two pieces of information, but both are very similar. And that is how much acreage has actually been removed and how light the crop truly was, particularly in the coastal regions for 2024. [00:07:10] And so when we look at, for example, a 23 bearing and non bearing acreage information from the state of California they're reporting 446, 000 acres of bearing wine grapes. And if you take that at, say, 7 tons an acre, that's 3. 12 million tons. And we know with certainty at 7 tons an acre, That acreage seems pretty low. [00:07:35] It doesn't seem realistic. So unfortunately, because it's a voluntary report when it comes to bearing versus non bearing acres, I do think that the state's probably about two years behind on real data trends. And so unfortunately right now, if you were to use that report as, you know, an analysis of the industry, you'd probably be a bit off. [00:07:54] Craig Macmillan: got it, got it. Are there trends in what varieties are coming out and what varieties are going back in? Because that's often been the driving force for removals and replants, is chasing the marketplace. Are we seeing that kind of thing in California? [00:08:11] Audra Cooper: Yeah, you know, I'll I'll touch on this a little bit and then turn it over to Eddie. It's, it's really difficult to predict in our industry how and what and when to plant, right? Because you are following a trend and a trend that you're going to be lagging behind in trying to meet because of the amount of time it takes to get a crop and a crop that is productive. [00:08:31] And so oftentimes we're abridged, Yeah. Yeah. too far behind in regards to consumer trends. When we look at the central coast as a whole, there's certainly some segmented dynamics on what's being removed versus planted. And, you know, a good place to start, of course, is Paso. Eddie, do you want to talk a little bit more about that? [00:08:51] Eddie Urman: Yeah we do see some trends of, varieties, being pushed out more frequently than others. You know, for the Central Coast, a couple that come to mind are, Zin, Pinot Noir Merlot is one that historically came out. If it's still there, still going out, and then more specifically, old vines is probably the more specific categories. You are seeing a lot of Cab being pushed, that are old vines, but likely to go back into Cab if it gets replanted. [00:09:17] Audra Cooper: that's an interesting trend, because when we're looking at what was purchased based on the survey numbers that Jeff Bitter reported, he was talking about 12, 000 acres being planted based on their survey in 2024, and an overwhelming percentage was still red varietals, which really bucks the trend on what we're seeing observing boots on the ground. [00:09:41] What we've mainly been seeing planted are more alternative whites and niche whites like Grenache Blanc, Pinot Grigio Astrotico, you know, very specific alternative whites in which they're trending with DTC and kind of smaller producers. Certainly we still see some redevelopment of Cabernet as well as Pinot Noir and Chardonnay, not so much on the red blender side or Merlot. [00:10:06] Those seem to be being pulled out and not redeveloped. [00:10:09] Craig Macmillan: Are we seeing any changes or trends around Okay, I'm pushing out Cabernet. I'm going to replant Cabernet. , am I going to replant the same amount of Cabernet? Am I using this as an opportunity to plant new ground? Do we have any information about that kind of thing? [00:10:24] Audra Cooper: Yeah, I mean, to give you hard data would be challenging. I don't know that anyone really has, a hard, fast calculation of what they do and don't do in regards to, the varietal makeup of a redevelopment. And I do want to clarify, I think there's a common misconception, particularly in the coastal regions that This is new net acreage. [00:10:43] It's not new net acreage. A lot of this is redeveloped acreage, but it will be higher in productivity based on, you know, better vines, healthier vines, better spacing, new farming technology, and so forth. And so we'll have new net supply based off that acreage. In full production. When you look at the new developments, though, and it was save paso cab, for example, it's really difficult to say, Oh, well, let's do 50 percent cab and 50 percent red blenders. [00:11:14] I mean, that's a tough decision to make. And you're really making a a pretty risky bet. I think for most people, they're going to plant to the site and also to the trend in the market. And so oftentimes, for example, again, Paso Cab, you're still going to have Cabernet largely go back in on those redevelopments. [00:11:31] When you look at Santa Barbara County, I think they're diversifying a little bit more than they had been in the past. You're not largely just Chardonnay Pinot Cab. You're also seeing alternative reds and whites being planted in that area. Monterey County, when you look at that region, it tends to be a little bit more mixed bag, but still largely chardonnay then in the southern Monterey County area, cabernet and red blenders. [00:11:54] Craig Macmillan: Do you have anything to add to that, Eddie? [00:11:56] Eddie Urman: As far as the rate of what's going back in the ground, you know, in acres. I think as far as East Paso goes Monterey County, Santa Barbara County, we're seeing contraction as far as more acres coming out that are going back. The only area we do see more plantings that are new, it is in the West side of Paso. And it's substantial. I think there's a good amount of acres that have gone in the West side. [00:12:17] Being from the growing side, I think we always wanted to diversify away from Cabernet and Paso Robles specifically, but the reality is the majority of people still want to buy Cabernet. So if anything, I'm worried that growers expect other varieties to try to diversify their portfolio that might not match the demand. [00:12:37] Craig Macmillan: Right, right. And speaking of demand. , we're talking about land and grapes, what's the current state of the, the bulk wine market where you'd expect a lot of the sovers to go where are we kind of at and what do you think are going to be the impacts on the bulk wine market with the replanting? [00:12:53] Audra Cooper: currently right now, listed available with us is about 28 million gallons. We anticipate that it will climb to probably 30, maybe past 30 million gallons at the peak of listing this year, which is typically early summer. In large part, that's still 2023 vintage. However, we do still have some 21, 22, and of course now new 24 is being listed. [00:13:18] The rate of listing is not being eclipsed by the rate of, you know, attrition decline in regards to bulk wine being removed from the market, whether that's through sales or higher and better use internally for those who are listing it. So we still have an off kilter balance there and certainly dramatically an oversupply and that dynamics likely to continue for the next couple of years until we see consumption increase and, and therefore increasing demand for new products. [00:13:45] Typically when we've seen these large increases in availability, what's gotten us out of it is the negotiants who are developing new brands, particularly when we look back to the premiumization sector. We saw a lot of middle tiers, you know, the likes of Duckhorn and Joel Gott and several others who were growing programs that they may have had for a couple of years, but they were very small and they've broadened those to other Appalachians or California and went to the bulk market first to kind of grow those programs before they started grape contracting. [00:14:16] So we're going to need to start seeing that trend in order to clean that market up. [00:14:19] Craig Macmillan: And so that's, that's basically good news, you think, for the bulk wine supply going down the road. [00:14:23] Audra Cooper: I think. In the future, it is in the short term. It's rather painful to have that amount of availability, right? We've been tracking this for the better part of three decades, and there's never been a single calendar year in which we've carried this amount of inventory, particularly going into last harvest, it was the highest inventory we'd ever seen in our tracking. [00:14:44] Keep in mind that this is what's listed available for us. This is not going out and taking inventory of what everyone has in tank that they're not necessarily going to bottle or they don't have a program for. So you can easily maybe double that number and that's what the likely availability is. [00:15:03] Craig Macmillan: Eddie what do you think is going to happen with pricing on on bulk wine? Yeah, I know that you're a specialized in grapes. But obviously those growers are concerned about what's going to happen to those grapes. From the grower side, how attractive is it right now to turn product into bulk wine, do you think? [00:15:21] Eddie Urman: I would say it's very, very, very much not attractive. Uh, we would. Not advocate for that in most scenarios for growers at this time regarding bulk pricing, you know, bulk wine, obviously we have bulk people who have better insight than Audrey, but in general, it's not going to be good. We don't, we don't foresee an increase in price as. we're obviously seeing an increase in supply of bulk wine, that typically is going to still have more downward pressure on price. And as far as growers bulking wine, it's, I think, a very risky game right now. You know, bulk wine does have a life expectancy, to Audra's point earlier. And, know, if you bulk it now, you have to sell it eventually to make your money back. [00:16:02] And then on top of that, you have to carry those costs with today's interest rates.  [00:16:06] Craig Macmillan: Right, right. So, prices for bulk wine right now, I'm guessing have been on the decline for probably a couple of years. Is that accurate? [00:16:13] Audra Cooper: Yeah, that's an accurate statement. If I were to really think about how long they've been on the decline, I would say probably mid, mid calendar year 2023 is when we start to see the downturn of the market be very, you know, impactful on pricing and overall demand. And of course, increasing inventory is really when that trend started. [00:16:34] I want to kind of go back to what Eddie was talking about regarding you know growers making bulk wine and and how risky that is, you know, we have a saying internally and it's so Elementary, but it's so applicable to these times. Your first loss is typically your best loss or your least loss and so it's really important when you're looking at alternative to market Whether or not you're actually going to be able to optimize how much investment you have in that product, and more often than not, when you're making grapes into bulk wine as a grower, you're not going to have the wherewithal to compete with a competitive set, other wineries, or large growers whose business models incorporate making bulk wine as a producer. [00:17:15] So you really end up being on the losing end of that game. [00:17:19] Craig Macmillan: Eddie, do you see price pressure on growers? Are prices being negotiated down or contracts being changed or not renewed? And if so, does that vary by region, do you think? I know you specialize in the Central Coast, but just from what you know. [00:17:34] Eddie Urman: I think for the Central Coast, it's easy to say that there's still unfortunately more cancellations or evergreens being called and their contracts being executed. There is some activity of people being willing to look at stuff and even make offers, which is good news, but typically it's at a lower pricing. [00:17:51] Craig Macmillan: This is for both of you if I'm a grower and I'm facing this situation both what I can get for my price and then also what the chances are of me selling my stuff on the bulk market, is this a situation where we're maybe better off not harvesting all the crop or mothballing some vineyards for the short term? [00:18:08] Eddie Urman: Yeah, I mean, I think in general, the less we pick this upcoming season that doesn't have a home, you know, the better off if it's picked for, uh, a program where it's actually needed, that's great, but bulking one on spec or taking in more fruit because it's cheap or very, you know, very low cost is not going to be a good thing. good overall thing for the industry. [00:18:30] As far as mothballing, we've talked a lot internally. This is where the conversation came in last time about making tough decisions and being intentional about how you're going to farm or you plant going into the season as a grower is, you know, mothballing is very controversial. [00:18:45] I think for our team, as far as whether it truly works and can you truly come back after it's done, if you're mothballing a Vineyard that's at the end of his life expectancy. You're probably just delaying your pain one more year. Cause it probably will not come back. If you're mothballing a five year old vineyard, maybe it's something that's a different story, but a real tough decision. [00:19:06] Mothballing a young producing vineyard most people are not in that situation. [00:19:12] Audra Cooper: Yeah, I mean, I want to expand a little bit on the, the mothballing and not harvesting fruit. I think it's really important that, you know, while this is a rather negative time in the industry and it's really easy to be very pessimistic. I do want to be optimistic about the needed outcomes and the solutions and the pain that's still rather prevalent in our industry to get kind of to the other side of being healthy. [00:19:36] I do want to be optimistic about some of the newer plantings that we've seen basically since 2012. There is a lot of new to middle aged vineyards that I really hope continue to stay in the ground. They need to stay in the ground because they are the highest and best fit for some of the newer style products in wine. [00:19:54] And we need to be able to continue to keep our wine quality elevated. And so while certainly there's vineyards that need to be removed or, or mothballed and taken out of production, there's also the flip side of that where there's a huge need for some of the. better vineyards and the more sought after vineyards or the vineyards that are priced right for the program that they're going into. [00:20:16] So this is kind of a double edged sword in the sense that yeah, we need plenty of production to be pulled out of the supply chain, but at the same time there's a huge need for very specific supply. So I want to be very careful in classifying those items. [00:20:30] Craig Macmillan: Right. And that brings me to my next question Audra there must be regional differences. Yeah. Yeah. In these patterns, I would assume some areas maybe are a little bit more protected from this kind of contraction or, or expansion over supply and others probably really bearing the brunt. I would guess. Do you see patterns at the state level? [00:20:48] Audra Cooper: I see patterns at the state level, but I can even bring it down to the central coast, even so far down to like even Paso right now. And Eddie and I have been talking about this a lot. You know, we saw a huge uptick in available inventory for east side AVA Cabernet and red blenders and even some of the white. Over the last two years, particularly last year in 2024, [00:21:11] and now we're seeing that dynamic shift from the east side climbing and available inventory. And now the west side is where we're seeing most of our listings come from over the last couple of weeks. And so we're now seeing it kind of push into more of the premium luxury tiers as far as this oversupply and the contraction and the kind of the pain points. [00:21:29] And so we are moving through the channels. Which I know again is, is difficult to hear and it's a very negative position to be in the industry, but it's also a sign that the market and the supply chain is moving through what it needs to move towards in order to come out the other side of this thing on a healthier end. [00:21:48] We comment on this a lot where. You know, it's going to get worse, dramatically worse for a short period of time before it gets better. And we're starting to see kind of the beginning of that position. [00:21:58] Craig Macmillan: What about the San Joaquin Valley? San Joaquin Valley? [00:22:02] Audra Cooper: is actually typically leading the charge in regards to our market, particularly our supply aspect of things, both in grapes and bulk wine. And so when we see A retraction in our industry or oversupply. We typically see it in the interior of the central valley first And when we see kind of a new, Growth stage we see it over there first as well And so they're ahead of us by one to two years Currently and then it kind of follows into the central coast and then up into the north coast and what i've seen Historically when you look back at markets and you look at kind of the time horizons of these things how? Long they live and what pushes the momentum of these markets. You'll typically see it last longer in the Central Valley, tiny bit shorter in the Central Coast and a lot shorter in the North Coast. The North Coast usually doesn't see quite as long of a pain period as the other two regions do. And there's, there's a lot of reasons that we probably shouldn't get into today because it would be a whole nother topic of conversation. [00:23:00] But I do think that the Central Coast right now has got another challenging year ahead of it. But also I think that the on ramp to a more positive industry is a little shorter than what I think people are giving credit for too because a lot of the work is being done, we just got to get through these major pain points first. [00:23:19] Craig Macmillan: We know that consumers drive demand for wine and hence wine grapes but are there other economic forces or political forces or regulatory forces that put pressure on this grape market aside from just consumer demand? [00:23:32] Eddie Urman: again, but 1 of big 1s is, put, it could put pressure to the positive or negative on our industry. We don't really know yet. It's still to be determined. when I read this question, the other thing came to mind to me is, is from a grower's perspective ensuring that you're growing. The compatible correct grapes for your region or varieties or it's staying within where you need to be. If the market for, for example, Chardonnay went through, went to the moon, it doesn't mean everyone in Paso should plant Chardonnay, [00:24:00] even though that's the hot variety, right? [00:24:02] It wouldn't be the best variety for most areas of Those are some of the quicker things that come to my mind. I'll probably elaborate. [00:24:10] Audra Cooper: I think to expand upon that, certainly regulations regarding, you know, water usage and irrigation is is a huge factor. And, and Eddie, you could probably do an entire podcast on that particular topic. And I'm sure that you guys have actually, Craig in addition to that, you really look at the economic environment in which people are growing grapes and producing wine. [00:24:32] And the economy of it is getting, you know, more and more difficult. The margins are getting much smaller. You can argue that more often than not people are taking losses year over year. And that puts a ton of pressure on their cash flow. In addition to that, when you look at the lending environment as well, that's become a lot more say, non conducive to being able to continue with business. In a lot of cases, [00:24:57] we have a handful of clients, if not more, who are questioning, do I prune because I don't necessarily have the same operational loan that I've had over the last couple of years and I've been taking low grape prices in order to survive to the following year, but you can only do that so long before it catches up to you. [00:25:14] And then we have another group or another segment of clientele who will prune, but may end up having to throw in the towel sometime, you know, mid summer or sooner because they don't have enough capital to continue with the grapes or you know, not sold. And then you look at the producer side on the winery side, and, and they too are getting crunched. [00:25:32] You know, we often talk about how low grape prices are, but we forget that, you know, wineries are getting crunched on their bottle price as well in order to nationally distribute. You know, what you see on the shelf as a price point does not necessarily mean that that's a price point to that producer. So the economies of this industry are getting more and more difficult every single year. [00:25:52] Craig Macmillan: Eddie, especially, are you seeing trends towards things like mechanization to try to keep costs down? [00:25:58] Eddie Urman: Yeah, absolutely. I mean mechanization and then automation and the vineyard or two, the , you know, hottest topics so here. And people were definitely making the efforts to try to implement those as they come available. The difficult thing can be oftentimes it's investment in equipment. That's very expensive and you have to truly consider is it going to, is it economically feasible to invest in that equipment and what's the payout time going to be based upon the amount of acres you're farming or how many passes you can do with that piece of equipment. So we're, we're seeing it happen, which is great. [00:26:31] It's innovation and it's heading us in the right direction, but at this point, a lot of it is still quite expensive and not everyone could participate for cost reasons. Yeah. [00:26:41] Craig Macmillan: Going forward, we've talked about this a little bit in terms of how different regions are kind of more paying for longer and some a little bit less and et cetera. And this then translates into the wines that are out there. Audra, you'd mentioned you know, the potential of negotiants to come in and help to alleviate the market. [00:26:59] That's definitely what happened in the nineties from my memory. We saw a lot of negotiate brands pop up because there was a plentiful supply for some of those years. Are there things that companies or government or grower associations, are there things that organizations could do to advise growers or help move people in the right direction in terms of kind of what they need to do? Is the viticulture consulting community? Taking these things into account Eddie, let's start with you, [00:27:29] Eddie Urman: that's a big question. there are plenty of people giving good advice in the industry and growers do have resources to reach out to, but it's very difficult to hear information that doesn't. Align with what you would like to do, right? So taking out our emotions from this from the equation and say, okay, does it really make sense to do this or to do that? Where where's that going to leave us and is that going to be in a position? To move forward in a better, know in a better new industry or new, you know New time in this industry when things rebound there's information out there, but it is difficult extremely difficult right now for growers and wineries to make decisions [00:28:09] Craig Macmillan: Yeah. That's the challenge when you have something like this, where it's individual decisions that lead to mass outcomes. It's hard for me as an individual to say, okay, well, I'm going to do my part. I'm going to keep these 10 acres out of production. Especially when I can see that I could sell to somebody. It's a tough go. Go ahead, Audra. [00:28:24] Audra Cooper: So I'm gonna go off on a tangent here a little bit. [00:28:26] Craig Macmillan: do. [00:28:28] Audra Cooper: I don't know, you might not welcome this one. So, you know, some people know this about me. I'm a pretty big Tony Robbins fan. And, You know, for some of you who don't know who that is, he's a self help guru that does a lot of different events and has written a lot of books and he has a philosophy and a saying that he utilizes through most of events, which is where focus goes, energy flows. [00:28:51] And unfortunately, we have not done the best of jobs being positive about ourselves in the industry, out there in the media, that ultimately is consumed by the masses. And so, I've been on this huge bandwagon about, when we're talking to the media, obviously we need to be rooted in reality, but we need to be as optimistic as we can about who we are and what our why is. [00:29:16] And I think oftentimes when we have these downturns, and this one's a pretty deep one, admittedly. That's the rooted in reality, right? But in these downturns, we tend to turn very, very pessimistic and we fail to remember that to some degree or another. We've been here before, and there have been a lot of innovations and activities and work and leadership that have pulled us out of it, and so we need to remember our history a little bit, I think would be my recommendation there, and I think a lot of the associations do a great job In reminding everyone what the historical background is and in some of our why Paso Robles Wine Country Alliance is a great example of what an association can do for a region on a national and international level. [00:30:03] I will continue to sing their praises because I think they've done a beautiful job in what they've done over the last 15 years. When you look at You know, what's happening from a government and regulation standpoint, you know, we have to band together as a community and be loud voices. We can't just rely on our neighbor or our representative to be our representative voice. [00:30:25] We need to make sure that we continue to be out there and loud. The other thing too is. We have a community, but we have a tendency to not keep collaboration consistent, and I would love to see our industry collaborate a little bit more, particularly on social media. I know that there's a lot of people probably listening to this right now thinking, why is social media even a remote solution? [00:30:48] But the amount of consumption from the younger generation that are now of drinking age that have not adopted wine as a beverage of choice, consume a huge amount of social media, more than they do TV, more than they do reading, more than any other culture. aspect of information gathering or any other platform that's available to them. [00:31:10] And we have an opportunity to band together and collaborate and change the algorithm regarding wine on social media. And I love to see us do that. We haven't done it. And there's various methods of doing that. And again, could probably be another podcast. I'm by no means the foremost expert on that, but our collaborative efforts. [00:31:27] We'll just drop that because I don't even remember exactly [00:31:30] Craig Macmillan: I think that's sound advice And it's always been a challenge. We do have some statewide Organizations that have that mission. They have a lot on their plate But I agree with you. I think that that is definitely the route or it seems to be the route There's more more research coming out that's showing that Not just the time but also like where people get their news You know, it shows you how important that is to them, how important , that venue is to them. [00:31:55] Eddie Urman: 1 of the things for me to extrapolate on that a little bit. What Audra was talking about is unified at the industry hot topics. Um. Rock mcmillan talked for a minute. The ceo of silicon bank about the wine industry Not itself and taking market share from itself, but taking market share from wine from beer from spirits They've clearly done that to us. [00:32:18] I mean It's a competition. It is what it is, and we've not done a great job marketing To younger, younger generations, everybody knows that everybody repeats it, but what are we going to do about it? And how can we as an industry figure out how to do a better job getting people exposed to wine, getting people to enjoy wine? [00:32:37] Audra Cooper: Yeah, I like that, Eddie. It's time to get aggressive and it's time to re enter wine in the conversation of culture and being part of the daily lifestyle. We've let it kind of fall by the wayside and it's time to get aggressive about what wine can be and was and should be here in the near future. [00:32:57] Craig Macmillan: right. You'd mentioned, you know, what's happened in the past. Audra, are there lessons that we learned that we are forgetting from 20 years ago or lessons that we should have learned 20 years ago that might help us now? [00:33:11] Audra Cooper: it's, that's an interesting question, and I think it is a great question of merit, because history does tend to repeat itself I think we need to get better about predictive trends, and I don't know what the answer is to that, I just know that we need to do that and again, we, we kind of talked about it early in the podcast here that, you know, it's really hard to plant a trend, because you're usually behind the eight ball on it. [00:33:38] And I think that we need to get better about how we plan for the future. I think we forget that, you know, Robert Mondavi and the Gallo's and, and countless others who came before us really went out. To the masses and marketed wine, not just their brands or their programs. They were out there to make sure that they were representing the wine industry and the product that we produce first and foremost. [00:34:06] And so I think there's that element. It's not necessarily missing, but it's not loud enough and it's not aggressive enough. And so we definitely need some leaders to come forward in that regard and really push the initiatives. That we fought so hard to stay in business for. When you look back historically to, I think we have a tendency to kind of do the blame game a little bit. [00:34:28] Like, you've planted too much over there on the coast and you've removed too much of the northern interior and you're charging too much up there in the north coast. And the reality is there's a place. For everyone to play and instead of being the competitive set that we are, again, to Eddie's point that Rob McMillan made as state of the industry, we should be looking at how do we take market share from our competitors, which are beer and spirits, RTDs, and so forth, not from each other. [00:34:57] Craig Macmillan: Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. It sounds like it's a time when we need to see some new leadership step up or some folks to take leadership roles which is always kind of scary. [00:35:08] Audra Cooper: It is. It's, it's, you know, here's the, the beautiful thing about emotion though. It's usually a call to action. So if we get scared enough. Someone will do something and I think we're just about there, and, and there's probably people working in the shadows that we're not aware of that will probably come forward here soon, you know, there's great leadership at CAWG level with their association as well as the Wine Institute, they're working hard every single day to be lobbyists , for our industry and to be making sure that they're representing our issues and finding solutions, solutions. [00:35:40] You know, one of the big things that I've learned over the last couple of years, particularly this last year, is, is that we are all responsible for our future and making sure our future is compelling. And so we need to be supporting those associations and paying attention to the relevancy of the information that's out there. [00:35:55] Craig Macmillan: Yeah, that's excellent. This is a, again, kind of a, kind of a tangent and it may not lead anywhere, but I, I just had this thought. You were talking about sustainability certifications and how important they are for growers now. Do you think that communicating the sustainability story of wineries and probably done at an individual level and then spreading out from there do you think consumers would respond to that? [00:36:17] Eddie Urman: Yeah it's hard to say because marketing is not my forte, but I, it sure seems like with the trends as far as health conscious and all this, I think it would resonate with them. It really should. And it's something we should probably capitalize on more as an industry in general. Yeah. [00:36:33] Craig Macmillan: That's interesting. Well do you have, does anybody have like a final message or one thing you would tell growers on this topic? Audra, [00:36:40] Audra Cooper: Well, we covered a lot of topics today, and I think I'll leave everyone with the same thing I said earlier, Where focus goes, energy flows, and if we're focused on the negative, and we're focused on how tough the industry is right now, that's where we're going to be. If we're focused on solutions, we'll find one that works, and it's going to be different for everyone. [00:37:04] Everyone's solution may look a little bit different. This is both an individual and industry wide issue that we're facing currently. with the downturn in the industry and the extreme oversupply. But I have faith that the work that's already being done will pull us out of this. We just need to get innovative in how we market to new consumers. [00:37:26] Craig Macmillan: That's great. Where can people find out more about you folks? [00:37:29] Eddie Urman: on our website. , you can get our information on there and reach out and contact us. Anything else Audra. Right. [00:37:44] Audra Cooper: Year you can go to our social media Turrentine Brokerate or you can find me at GrapeBroker on Instagram. You can also call us or email us or text us if you'd like, or smoke signal us too, although please don't carry fires. [00:37:50] Craig Macmillan: Anyway, right. Well, thank you so much. I guess today we're Audrey Cooper she is a director of great brokerage at Turrentine. Brokerage and Eddie Urman, who is the central coast, great broker Turrentine. Thank you both for being here and having such an interesting conversation. It's an important topic with a lot of question marks, lots and lots of questions, but I think we had some good things come out of it and I really appreciate it. [00:38:11] Audra Cooper: All right. Thank you.  [00:38:17] Beth Vukmanic: Thank you for listening. Today's podcast was brought to you by wonderful laboratories. Wonderful laboratories. Operates two state of the art high throughput laboratories to support pathogen detection and nutrient analysis. The team provides full service support to customers with field sampling, custom panels, and special projects. Their customers include pest control advisors, growers, consultants, seed companies, backyard gardeners, researchers, and more. [00:38:45] Make sure you check out the show notes for links to Turntine brokerage. Their previous interview on the Sustainable Winegrowing podcast, that's number 259, wine Grape Market Trends for 2024, plus other sustainable wine growing podcast episodes, including 265. How to stand out on social media in 2025 and 268 how to tackle leadership transitions successfully.   [00:39:10] If you'd like this show, do us a big favor by sharing it with a friend, subscribing and leaving us a review. [00:39:16] You can find all of the podcasts@vineyardteam.org/podcast and you can reach us at podcast@vineyardteam.org. Until next time, this is Sustainable Winegrowing with the Vineyard team.   Nearly perfect transcription by Descript

Embracing Success Beyond Social Media: A Faith-Focused Journey to Becoming a Published Author With so much focus on social media, it can be hard for anyone striving to become a published author not to feel the pressure to build a massive following. One might think it's necessary to be seen as successful. However, true success comes from following God's plan and staying rooted in your values. Becoming a published author doesn't have to revolve around likes, followers, or algorithms. Redefining Success to Become a Published Author It's easy to look at people who have achieved literary success and focus on where they are now—published, celebrated, and recognized. But what you don't often see is the long, unseen journey it took for them to become a published author. That journey looks different for everyone, beginning with defining success on your terms - not the world's terms. You can view success through three lenses: ours, God's, and the world's. Are you writing simply for personal ambition? Are you chasing worldly approval—fame, money, social media validation? Or are you seeking to become a published author in alignment with God's unique plan for your life? The world often tells us success means going viral, having a curated life online, or selling millions of copies. But God's definition of success is grounded in faithfulness, obedience, and impact—sometimes unseen but always meaningful. About Allie Marie Allie Marie's passion is helping people, especially girls and women, live flourishing lives, know their God-given worth, identity, and purpose, and experience vibrant wellness in body, mind, and spirit.  As a teen girl and young woman, Allie battled severe depression and even tried to end her life. But by God's grace, grit, and a commitment to live a healthy lifestyle, she is thriving and has a life more beautiful than she ever could have imagined.  Allie is an award-winning author, podcast host, life coach, and speaker. She is also the Founder and CEO of Wonderfully Made®, an organization and ministry she started when she was twenty. Their mission is to help girls and women know God and their values and thrive. We are on a rescue mission to save girls' lives from suicide.  Allie lives in Santa Barbara County with her husband, Paul, and Golden Retriever Gidget, where she loves being unplugged, writing, playing with horses, surfing, and adventuring up and down the California coast.  Website for Allie Marie Smith Additional Resources Pre-Order Allie Marie Smith's Book: Social Media Reset: A 30-Day Guided Journey to Unplug, Reconnect with God, and Reclaim Your Joy Get Robyn's Book: You, Me, and Anxiety: Take Action Over Anxiety to Enjoy Being You. What You Need to Know to Write a Book and Become an Author - Episode 134  Strategies to Create Success Without Social Media - Episode 347

Matt Dees is the winemaker at JONATA, The Hilt, and The Paring, wineries which are located in California's Santa Barbara County.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Prop. 36 made major changes to California's drug legislation and justice system. Just how has the proposition been established here in Santa Barbara County? KCSB's Tatiana Jacquez has the story. Photo credit: Santa Barbara Courthouse, courtesy of Archinia/Wikimedia Commons

In the face of climate uncertainty, growers wonder which grape varieties will flourish in their regions in the future, or if any will grow there at all. Joel Harms, Ph.D. student in the Department of Bioresource Engineering at McGill University in Australia is using artificial intelligence to simulate the potential to grow pinot noire in different regions of the world that are currently considered too cool. The project mapped 1,300 varieties to 16 different points of climate data including temperature, precipitation, and growing degree days. The findings could play a crucial role in identifying the winegrowing regions of tomorrow. Resources:         207: Managing Catastrophic Loss in Vineyards: Lessons from Cyclone Gabrielle in New Zealand Cal-Adapt Development of a generative AI-based model for guiding grape variety selection under contemporary climate dynamics Generative AI for Climate-Adaptive Viticulture Development Joel Harms Google Scholar Page Mapping Global of the Potential for Pinot Noir Cultivation under Climate Uncertainty using Generative AI University of Adelaide Wine Economics Research Center Vineyard Team Programs: Juan Nevarez Memorial Scholarship - Donate SIP Certified – Show your care for the people and planet   Sustainable Ag Expo – The premiere winegrowing event of the year Vineyard Team – Become a Member Get More Subscribe wherever you listen so you never miss an episode on the latest science and research with the Sustainable Winegrowing Podcast. Since 1994, Vineyard Team has been your resource for workshops and field demonstrations, research, and events dedicated to the stewardship of our natural resources. Learn more at www.vineyardteam.org.   Transcript [00:00:00] Beth Vukmanic: In the face of climate uncertainty, growers wonder which grape varieties will flourish in their regions in the future, or if any, will grow there at all. [00:00:13] Welcome to Sustainable Wine Growing with the Vineyard Team, where we bring you the latest in science and research for the wine industry. I'm Beth Vukmanic, Executive Director. [00:00:23] In today's podcast, Craig McMillan, Critical Resource Manager at Niner Wine Estates, with longtime SIP certified vineyard and the first ever SIP certified winery. Speaks with Joel Harms, PhD student in the Department of Bioresource Engineering at McGill University in Australia. [00:00:42] Joel is using artificial intelligence to simulate the potential to grow Pinot Noir in different regions of the world that are currently considered too cool. [00:00:52] The project mapped 1, 300 varieties to 16 different points of climate data. including temperature, precipitation, and growing degree days. The findings could play a critical role in identifying the wine growing regions of tomorrow. [00:01:07] Want to be more connected with the viticulture industry but don't know where to start? Become a member of the Vineyard Team. Get access to the latest science based practices, experts, growers, and wine industry tools through both infield and online education so that you can grow your business. Visit vineyardteam. org and choose grower or business to join the community today. Now let's listen in. [00:01:34] Craig Macmillan: Our guest today is Joel Harms. He's a PhD student in the Department of Bioresources Engineering at McGill University. And today we're going to talk about mapping global future potential for Pinot Noir cultivation under climate uncertainty using generative AI. [00:01:51] Bye. Bye. This is a really interesting topic. I came across an abstract from a recent ASEV meeting and I was like, I just have to know more about this. This just sounds too interesting. But welcome to the podcast, Joel. [00:02:04] Joel Harms: Okay. Thank you very much. Thank you for having me. [00:02:06] Craig Macmillan: What got you interested in this topic in terms of this wine grape region? Stuff. [00:02:12] Joel Harms: I think it was more about I wanted to build models that are useful, I guess, broadly useful in vineyard management and like establishing new vineyards and like kind of covering some of the base problems. Initially, my thought was, how can we. see which grape varieties are alike. [00:02:32] How can we like make a representation of them in like a latent space. But then I found out , if I do that, that's, you know, somewhat useful, but if I take that just a step further, I could just connect it with climate data already. And then we would have a model that could, be used for prediction and it would be so I guess. How do I say like broad or general enough so that you could apply it in any environment. So like any climate can be used to predict any grape suitability matrix, which is quite nice. And so then I thought, no, let's do it. Let's try that. [00:03:11] Craig Macmillan: So your colleagues and yourself did some simulations, as we just mentioned specifically around Pinot Noir and the potential to grow it in different parts of the world that currently are considered too cool. Tell us exactly how you went about this. [00:03:25] Joel Harms: The abstract is kind of a case study on one application of, These models that we built. So we built very general grape variety recommender systems based on climate. And so we wanted to show a cool application globally. This can be applied to find regions that will be too hot in the future. [00:03:43] So we built the AI models first starting from looking at where grapes are grown and tying that together with what climate is there regionally. Unfortunately, you know, we can't use like very precise climate data because we don't have the exact location of each grape variety in each region. [00:04:02] Craig Macmillan: hmm. Yep. [00:04:03] Joel Harms: Yeah. So therefore, we use larger climate data. So like at 50 kilometer resolution, which is still helpful to, I think, gather overall trends, not so much, you know, to plan an individual vineyard probably, but just to see like in which areas maybe there would be. in the future interesting vineyard sites. [00:04:23] Just like kind of as like a pre guidance sort of model. And then we, tested it. We tried to validate this model and then we presented a first case study with Pinot Noir because we were presenting in Oregon at the ASEV conference. So I figured, you know, might as well do Pinot Noir if we're already in Oregon. [00:04:43] Craig Macmillan: Can you explain to me the artificial intelligence piece of this? I mean, you hear about it and you know, kind of what different types of AI do. I don't think a lot of people realize that, you know, that's a very general concept and people have designed particular tools for particular reasons. [00:05:01] So, in this case, what exactly was the AI component? What's inside the box, basically? How does it work? [00:05:07] Joel Harms: First off, I guess to explain for listeners , cause AI does get thrown around a lot and it's hard to know what that actually means. So when we're talking about AI, it's usually we're tying some sort of input data to some sort of output data. And we're teaching a very complicated mathematical function to map one to the other. [00:05:25] So like kind of a correlation. But it's not a simple correlation. That's why we need these models and that's why they're pretty fancy. [00:05:31] So in our case, we're using an AI that was inspired from the community of medical science, where similar models were used to connect, for example, the ECG measurements of a heart with like scans of the heart. [00:05:50] And then Trying to tie both of those datas together and to reconstruct them again to see if, like, you could find correlations between those and maybe if one of them is missing, you could, , predict what it would look like. And so, since this is a very similar problem, , and we have similar input data in the sense of, we have grapes, which grapes are grown where, and we have what is the climate there, roughly. [00:06:13] So we can tie that together and try to connect both of those types of data and then get an output of both of those types of data so that we can go from grapes to climate and climate to grapes in the same model. So we have these , you could say like four models. that are tied together at the center. So input grapes, input climate, then in the center where they get tied together and then output grapes, output climate. And so we train it to, reconstruct it from this combined space where we like, Scrunch it down, which is what the autoencoder does. [00:06:48] Craig Macmillan: So if, if I understand correctly, what we're talking about is , we know that we have the data and we know where wine grapes are grown, different types for different climates. Then we have the climate data in terms of how things may change over time. And then we're creating a prediction of. How those climates change, and then translate that into what we already know about wine grapes. [00:07:09] Joel Harms: Sort of. Yeah. But in our model for training, we just use the existing ones. So historical climate data and historical grape variety data. Once we have that model trained, we just apply it for new climates that come from like other climate models. So we don't do the climate modeling ourselves, but we extract that information and feed that into it and get the grape varieties output. [00:07:31] Craig Macmillan: So you look specifically, at least reported on areas that currently are considered too cold for growing a high quality pinot noir or growing wine grapes in general. What did you find out? What Parts of the world might be the new leading Pinot Noir regions. [00:07:46] Joel Harms: . So that depends a little bit on the exact scenario and how much the climate is supposed to warm. We have like two scenarios is what we looked at. We looked at a 8. 5 scenario and a 2. 6 scenario and going by the 8. 5 scenario, some of the regions that are improving are for example, Western China. And also Southern California, actually, and Quebec, , like Southern California is in Santa Barbara. I guess that's technically Central Coast, [00:08:17] Craig Macmillan: Yeah, well, that's interesting There's a lot of Pinot Noir in Santa Barbara County in the in the coastal zones Any other regions that popped up? [00:08:26] Joel Harms: Yeah, a lot of Australia seems to be doing better and like Northern France, [00:08:31] Craig Macmillan: Yeah pushing it to the north. Did England pop up? [00:08:35] Joel Harms: England, yes, but England seems to like stay the same in compared to historical. So not like as if it's improving, at least like from this, like rough map that we made. What we want to do is do it a bit more finely. The, this prediction, because we currently just used regions where wine is already grown, but then try to like interpolate just for calculation efficiency. Outward. So like our maps are created not only by the model itself, because that would be too calculation intensive. So for the, for the sake of simplicity, we did it like this, but we're still writing the final paper. So, you know, don't invest just yet, wait a little bit and then, [00:09:17] Craig Macmillan: I was gonna bring that up. Where should I put my money? [00:09:19] Joel Harms: Exactly. So don't do that yet. Wait for the final paper and then we will double check everything over. Oh yeah. Arkansas was one that was improving too. Very interestingly. Yeah. [00:09:28] Craig Macmillan: I was kind of surprised because having talked to guests, many guests from, you know, New York, from Texas, from people who consult in the Southwest Northern California, which can get quite warm. What we've talked about is the question of it getting too hot to grow quality wine grapes. [00:09:49] You know, wine grapes will grow to tolerate quite high temperatures. So, for instance, the San Joaquin Valley in California, produces a lot of wine grapes. They're not considered to be very high quality compared to coastal zones. So the vines do great and produce good crops and all of that. So there's concern that areas that have been kind of in the sweet spot, kind of in the, we call it the Goldilocks phenomenon where climate, soil, time, everything just all kind of fits together. [00:10:12] It sounds like this idea would be applicable to predicting what areas might become too warm for high quality wine [00:10:19] Joel Harms: Yes. Yes. It's definitely the case. Yes. And in our maps. You can see both at the same time because it sees like relative change, positive, relative change to, to negative. Some areas that look like they're not going to do so well in the future or less good in the future, even though they're like really good right now is like Oregon, unfortunately. [00:10:39] And the Azores or Northern Spain, even in Eastern Europe, a lot of areas. Seem to be warming up like in Romania at the coast. Not necessarily just the warming up part, but also because we consider 16 different climate variables, it could be the warming up part, but it could also be, you know, like the precipitation changing things like that, you know. [00:10:59] Craig Macmillan: You said 16 variables, we talked, you got temperature, you got precipitation, what, what are some of the others? [00:11:04] Joel Harms: Yeah, we got the growing degree days, the winter index, we got the Huggins index, we have radiation. Diurnal temperature range, the annual average temperature, for the precipitation, we have it like a three different scales, in the harvest month over the growing season and also throughout the whole year same for the temperature. And then we have the, growing indexes [00:11:26] Craig Macmillan: do you have plans to do this kind of thing again? Or publish additional papers from the work you've already done, because I think, it sounds like you've got a lot of interesting findings, [00:11:35] Joel Harms: Oh yeah. Yeah. The results only came in like right before the conference. We're still analyzing everything, writing everything. So the first thing that's coming up is a paper just on , how did we build the model and like all the validations and does it make sense with like expert classifications of how experts classify suitability for grapevines and things like that in the past to see if. That lines up as it should yeah, and then after that we'll publish some of these predictions and what we can learn from these and more detailed than how we did it right now where, most of it's like interpolated because we couldn't predict for every location, so like we predicted for some locations and interpolated. Just for computational efficiency, I guess, but you know, we're, we're getting there. Unfortunately, academia is quite you know, a slow profession. takes a lot of time. [00:12:24] Craig Macmillan: Yes, yes it does. And then getting it published takes a lot of time with reviews and whatnot. And so I just want to put a time stamp on this. This is being recorded in October of 2024. So, Give it some months, at least several, several, several, several. But it's exciting. This stuff's coming out. It'll be in, be in the literature. That's really, really great. [00:12:43] Joel Harms: And soon what we're trying to do is also release like a tool or something that, you know, where people can input their location and we can, our climate data, like call out the climate data and see what, what some of the predictions would be. Yeah. [00:12:57] Craig Macmillan: Oh, that's neat. [00:12:59] Joel Harms: I might've done that for Niner Vineyards just now to see, to see what, what's a suitable there, but only the current ones. [00:13:08] So I mean, it's kind of is exactly what you're growing. [00:13:10] Craig Macmillan: Funny. You should mention that. There is a a website called CalAdapt that allows you to put in some ranges and some variables specific to your location, you put your location in, and then there's a number of different models that you can run. Some are very conservative, some are not in terms of what the predictions are for climate change globally. [00:13:31] And then gives you a nice report on what the average temperature change might be in degrees Fahrenheit or Celsius also takes a stab at precipitation, although I talked to somebody who was connected to that and they said the precipitation is always kind of questionable. And also looks at things like heat waves, how many heat waves days over 100 or days over 95, you might expect because those can be quite fluctuating. [00:13:55] damaging. Even, even though vines can tolerate heat, if they're not acclimated, getting these big stretches of over a hundred, for instance, can be kind of stressful. I did that and kind of looked at it myself and thought, huh, I wonder if we had better, more, um, detailed information, what that might look like. [00:14:12] Another tool that was mentioned that you used was a deep coupled auto incoder networks. What are those? [00:14:18] Joel Harms: So that was what I described earlier, like these component models , where we have a. The encoder and decoder part, the input part is the , encoder and the output part is the decoder. And in the middle of these we have a latent space and then the coupled part means that we're having multiple of these that share their latent space. [00:14:38] So that's , where we're tying them together so that we can input either climate or grapes and get as outputs either climates or grapes. So it's like very, very flexible in that way and so I quite like that. And it turns out it does better than even some more traditional approaches where you just feed in climate and get out grapes like from a neural network or something like that. [00:14:59] Just like a neural network, because we have technically like four neural networks and all of them have three layers. So that's three layers or more. And so that's what makes them deep. [00:15:08] Craig Macmillan: Got it. [00:15:09] Is this your primary work as a PhD student? [00:15:13] Joel Harms: Well, as a PhD student, I'm still working on modeling. But not so much with grapevines, unfortunately. I'm looking at still climate models. How can we adapt for example, now we're looking more at the Caribbean. There's flooding issues. Particularly in Guyana. And so we're trying to, you know, help maybe the government to plan land use better in order to avoid, you know, critical areas being flooded, agricultural land being flooded and these type of things. [00:15:41] So it's more looking at flooding modeling, there's definitely some overlap in that sort of work, it's definitely still like in the area of using data science to help decision making which is the overall theme of this work. [00:15:55] Craig Macmillan: Yeah, and that was something that also came up in my little mini project was the potential for massive storms and also the potential for drought. Which, wasn't part of your work at this stage. Is that something that you would be able to find a way of including in your modeling that might give you some idea of how things might change? [00:16:15] And it's specifically what I'm thinking of is Cyclone Gabriel, I believe it was called, Gabriella just devastated parts of New Zealand. And raised a lot of concern about how, you know, when we were in these coastal zones, we go, Oh, yes, it's mild. It's great. But we're right near the ocean. [00:16:33] Right. And in October between 24, we've seen a very active hurricane season in the Caribbean and on the East coast and the Gulf. Do you think there's potential for this kind of thing to give us more of a heads up about what might be coming our way in terms of massive storm events? Cause that might affect how and what I do. [00:16:52] Joel Harms: I guess this wouldn't depend really on the grape variety itself. That would be more like a citing issue, right? Like where do you plant? [00:16:58] That's what we're looking at now with the like flooding mapping if there is a storm, where does the water collect? Which roads are cut off? Or, I mean, I guess in the case of vineyards, you could look at like, what would be the likely damage would there be now saltwater maybe even if you're depending on where you are. That's definitely something to look at. [00:17:17] All you need is sufficient, like past data points. So you can calibrate your models and then. You know, look at different future scenarios and what will be important to for the future is to look at what's kind of the certainty of these predictions, right? Like, what are your error margins? What's your confidence interval? [00:17:33] Because that might drastically alter your decisions. If it says, oh, it's probably not going to be too bad, but you're very uncertain about that, then you're probably going to take some more precautions than, you know, not because usually now we have A lot of models where their prediction is very, like is deterministic. [00:17:50] So they say, this is how it will be. And it's hard to tell where, you know, where those margins are of error, which is something to look at in the future for sure. [00:18:01] Craig Macmillan: Yeah, that is a challenge in the the model that I did for a Paso Robles vineyard Precipitation didn't really change very much which I was surprised by so it wasn't gonna become like a drought area completely but the potential ranged from five inches of rain a year to 60 inches of rain a year, which is why I was asking about these massive storms. [00:18:21] Maybe our averages, continuous to what we have now, but it may be a bunch of craziness year to year around that. And I think that is interesting and useful to know. So you prepare for it. [00:18:34] Joel Harms: that's something people are looking at, I think cause you can use some models to calculate sort of new climate indices. To see like from daily data train, like new climate indices to see these big storm events and things like that, and maybe incorporate that. That could help, , maybe with that sort of analysis of where even if it's the same average, the index is different because it measures something else. [00:18:59] Yes, I wouldn't know what they're called, but yes, I believe this already exists and is being improved. . [00:19:05] Craig Macmillan: Yeah. Yeah. With your experience so far, what do you see? Because everybody's talking about this. It's like the future in a world of artificial intelligence and this and that. In this particular area where you're, you're tying one set of variables to climate variables and also to historical weather. [00:19:23] In the big picture, beyond just wine grapes, but in the big picture, any topic, where do you see this kind of work going? You touched on it a little bit, when you close your eyes and open your mind what does the future look like? What, kind of tools are we going to have and what kind of things are we going to be able to find out? [00:19:38] Joel Harms: Yeah, that's interesting. I think it, it really depends on the data we have available and it looks like we'll have more and more data available. [00:19:47] So better disease models, location specific disease models to plan spray schedules better and things like that, they seem to be coming. I think I've seen parts of that already from some companies rolling out. [00:20:00] It's all about kind of the creatively using the data that you have available, because a lot of like my data, for example, that I used for this. This isn't necessarily new data, right? This comes from the University of Adelaide who collects where, which grape varieties are grown all over the world. [00:20:17] And then just historical, climate data. It's not very new, but just to put these together in a meaningful way with AI, that's going to be the challenge. And then also to test, is this reliable or not? Because you could theoretically predict almost anything, but then you need to check, is it just correlation? [00:20:39] Am I taking all the important variables into account? And we're developing AI very, very fast. But maybe we need to spend a bit more time, you know, trying to validate it, trying to see how robust it is, which is a major challenge, especially with these complicated models, because, I heard about this example. [00:20:57] Where in the past, for some self driving cars, their AI that recognized stop signs could be tricked if there was a sticker on the stop sign, and it would ignore the stop sign. Even though there's not a big difference, but you can't test for, you know, all of these cases, what might happen. And that's kind of the same for, , what we are doing. [00:21:17] So improving the testing, that would be, I think, a major A major goal to make sure it's robust and reliable or that it tells you how, how certain it is, you know, then at least you can deal with it, you know, and not just make a decision off of that. Yeah, [00:21:29] Craig Macmillan: Yeah. What the level of uncertainty is. That's always the getcha. [00:21:33] Joel Harms: yes, [00:21:34] Craig Macmillan: That's always the hard part. If you had one thing that you would tell growers on this topic, what would it be? Mm [00:21:43] Joel Harms: Specifically for my models, it would be to take the current results with a grain of salt. And then to sort of use this to, narrow down like a selection of grapes and to still run tests and things like that. Cause it's regional data, right? It's not going to tell you exactly what you should grow in your location. [00:22:02] Cause it's, you know, the weather data is based on four to 50 kilometers around you. You know, that's where we're like assembling the data from. [00:22:10] Craig Macmillan: that a 50 kilometer quadrant? [00:22:12] Joel Harms: yes. Yeah. [00:22:13] Craig Macmillan: Yep. Okay. Gotcha. [00:22:14] Joel Harms: Yes, exactly. So this tool is mainly used or useful if you use it to like pre select some varieties so you can see what might be good, you know, and then decide for yourself what you want. [00:22:27] The take home message is like, it's not supposed to take away grape growing experts and things like that, or replace them in any way, but it's supposed to like support it because. There's so many grape varieties and if climate regions or like regions where we're growing grapes are changing, where the climate is changing, we want to get the best choice. [00:22:47] And so we should probably look at all of them, all of our available options and see what we can do. It will narrow it down for you. And then, you know, you'll still have to see what works exactly for you. What wine do you want to produce? I mean, it doesn't take that into account, right? It just gives you what probably would grow well here. [00:23:03] Craig Macmillan: . [00:23:03] Yeah, then I think that there's going to be a future also in bringing in some either hybrid varieties or varieties that are not terribly well known. I've talked to people from Texas and from Michigan Pennsylvania, where the traditional vinifera only varieties don't do pretty well. Terribly well, often because of cold hardiness because of cold winters, they don't handle it, but there's hybrids that do great and make interesting wine. [00:23:27] And I think that would be an interesting thing to include in a model or if it came out kind of like the winner was something we don't normally [00:23:33] Joel Harms: Right. Usually we have a lot of hybrids in this because we have 1, 300 varieties. [00:23:39] Craig Macmillan: wow. Oh, I didn't realize that. [00:23:41] Joel Harms: so I think we have most of the. commercially used grape varieties, like in all aspects. [00:23:48] Craig Macmillan: yeah, probably, probably. [00:23:49] Joel Harms: Yeah. So it's quite, quite far ranging. We only excluded some where it was never more than 1 percent of any region, because then like our model couldn't really learn what this grape variety needs. [00:24:00] Right. Because it's like too small, even in the largest region where it we cut those out. So, cause else we would have 1700. But then like the 1300 that actually get used commercially at a significant scale. Those we have. The model is actually built like we have a suitability index. [00:24:18] But we're still trying to, , fine adjust so that we can rank not just what's popular and like how much will grow. Cause then you'll always get, you know, the top, the top 10 will look very similar for any region. But then through the suitability index, we actually get a lot of these smaller varieties that would fit very well also ranked in the top 10 or in the top 50 of varieties. [00:24:41] Craig Macmillan: They've mentioned fine tuning the model at this point. Is this particular project or this particular model, is this gonna continue on into the future? It sounds you have ideas for improvements. Is this number one gonna continue on into the future and is there gonna come a point when This will be available for the industry, industries internationally to do their own trials. [00:25:03] Joel Harms: Yes, I think so. So I think when we're publishing the paper latest at that point, we'll have the tool set up where people can try it out, put in, in their location. And I guess we're publishing the methodology. So you could build like a version of this yourself. It's not too crazy. Probably code will be published too. [00:25:24] So, you know, you could build this yourself if you wanted to, or you could just use the models we have trained already. Okay. And just apply them to your case. That's what the tool is for. . Right now it's like all code based. So like, it's not, not so easy where you just, drop your pin, like where you're at and then it gives you some predictions, , that's what we're aiming for. [00:25:44] Craig Macmillan: Fantastic. So our guest today has been Joel Harms. He is a PhD student in the Department of Bioresource Engineering at McGill. University. Thanks so much for being on the podcast. This is really fascinating. I'm really looking forward to how this work progresses. And I think it's very eyeopening for us. [00:26:01] Again, you know, one of the things I thought was fascinating is I've had all these conversations about areas that would no longer be suitable, but a flip on it and say, well, areas that might be suitable in the future. I hadn't thought of that. [00:26:12] Joel Harms: Why not? You [00:26:13] Craig Macmillan: why not? You know, that's, that's, that's a very interesting question, and it applies to other crops as well. [00:26:18] I just had never really thought about it like that. You know, maybe you can grow oranges in Iowa at some point. [00:26:23] Joel Harms: That, that would be nice. I guess. [00:26:25] Craig Macmillan: maybe [00:26:26] Joel Harms: maybe see. [00:26:28] Craig Macmillan: we'll see. We'll see. You never know. Anyway, Joel, thanks for being on the podcast. I appreciate it. [00:26:33] Beth Vukmanic: Thank you for listening. Today's podcast was brought to you by Cal West Rain. Since 1989, Cal West Rain has served growers on California's Central Coast and the San Joaquin Valley. As a locally owned, full line irrigation and pump company, they offer design and construction experience in all types of low volume irrigation systems, whether they're for vines, trees, or row crops. [00:27:03] In addition, CalWestRain offers a full range of pumps and pump services, plus expertise in automation systems, filtration systems, electrical service, maintenance and repairs, equipment rental, and a fully stocked parts department. Learn more at CalWestRain. com. [00:27:23] Make sure you check out the show notes for links to Joel, his research articles, plus sustainable wine growing podcast episode 207. Managing Catastrophic Loss in Vineyards, Lessons from Cyclone Gabriel in New Zealand. If you liked this show, do us a big favor by sharing it with a friend, subscribing, and leaving us a review. [00:27:44] You can find all of the podcasts at vineyardteam.org/podcast, and you can reach us at podcast at vineyardteam.org. Until next time, this is Sustainable Wine Growing with the Vineyard Team.   Nearly perfect transcription by Descript

In the wine industry, it is difficult to plant to demand. At the time of this recording in December 2024, the industry finds itself in a state of oversupply. Audra Cooper Director of Grape Brokerage and Eddie Urman, Central Coast Grape Broker at Turrentine Brokerage discuss the challenges ag faces from a lighter crop to regulatory restrictions to inflation. To remain viable, they stress the importance of farming a quality product that can be made into good wine and sold profitably to continue to support all aspects of the industry. Resources:         185: Why You Need to Talk About Sustainability 221: Future Proof Your Wine Business with Omnichannel Communication Turrentine Brokerage Turrentine Brokerage - Newsletter United States Department of Agriculture Grape Cruse Report Vineyard Team Programs: Juan Nevarez Memorial Scholarship - Donate SIP Certified – Show your care for the people and planet   Sustainable Ag Expo – The premiere winegrowing event of the year Vineyard Team – Become a Member Get More Subscribe wherever you listen so you never miss an episode on the latest science and research with the Sustainable Winegrowing Podcast. Since 1994, Vineyard Team has been your resource for workshops and field demonstrations, research, and events dedicated to the stewardship of our natural resources. Learn more at www.vineyardteam.org.   Transcript [00:00:00] Beth Vukmanic: In the wine industry, it is difficult to plant to consumer demand. At the time of this recording, in December 2024, the industry finds itself in a state of oversupply. Welcome to Sustainable Wine Growing with the Vineyard Team, where we bring you the latest in science and research for the wine industry. [00:00:23] I'm Beth Vukmanic, Executive Director at Vineyard Team. And in today's podcast, Craig Macmillan, Critical Resource Manager at Niner Wine Estates, with longtime SIP certified Vineyard and the first ever SIP certified winery, speaks with Audra Cooper, Director of Grape Brokerage, and Eddie Urman, Central Coast Grape Broker. At Turrentine Brokerage, [00:00:45] They discuss the challenges ag faced in 2024 from a lighter crop to regulatory restrictions, to inflation, to remain viable. They stress the importance of farming a quality product that could be made into good wine and sold profitably to continue to support all aspects of the industry. [00:01:04] Do you want to be more connected with the viticulture industry, but don't know where to start? Become a Vineyard Team member. Get access to the latest science based practices, experts, growers, and wine industry tools through both infield and online education so that you can grow your business. Visit vineyardteam.org To become a member today. [00:01:25] Now let's listen in. [00:01:31] Craig Macmillan: Our guests today are Audra Cooper and Eddie Urman. Audra is director of grape brokerage with Turrentine brokerage. And Eddie is a grape broker for the central coast, also with Turrentine. Thanks for being on the podcast. [00:01:42] Audra Cooper: Thank you for having us. We're excited. [00:01:44] Eddie Urman: yeah, thanks for having us, Craig. [00:01:46] Craig Macmillan: What exactly is a wine and grape brokerage? [00:01:49] Audra Cooper: It's a really fancy term for matchmaking and finding homes for supply. Whether that's through growers having fruit available and needing to sell in a specific year or finding multi year contracts, or that's bulk wine that has been made in excess or maybe a call for a winery needing to find a way of A pressure release valve. [00:02:11] Craig Macmillan: And so you match buyers with sellers, basically. [00:02:13] Audra Cooper: Exactly. [00:02:14] Craig Macmillan: On both sides of the fence. Both the wine and the grape side. Do you have specialists for the grape side? Specialists for the wine side? [00:02:21] Audra Cooper: We do. , you're talking to our newest hire on the grape side, Eddie, who's going to be focused on the Central Coast. We also have Mike Needham in the Central Valley on grapes. Christian Clare in the North Coast specializing in Napa, Sonoma, Lake, and Mendocino on grapes. And then we have three bulk wine brokers, Mark Cuneo, William Goebel, and Steve Robertson. [00:02:40] Craig Macmillan: Your world is very dependent on the marketplace. Obviously, that's what you do. You're brokers. The simple model of quote unquote the market. I think for most people is that you have a consumer who buys wine, wineries make wine, and they sell it to those people who buy it. Vineyards grow grapes up to wineries. [00:02:57] So if there's more demand from consumers, that means there's , more grapes in demand, there's more wine in demand, and there should be higher prices. Or the opposite. That's probably really oversimplified given the unique nature of the wine industry, because , it's not a widget, you know, I don't make a widget, sell it, then go, Ooh, I can make more widgets. [00:03:16] So because of the nature of the business things are on much larger timeframes, right? Audra, [00:03:23] Audra Cooper: They are. I mean, agriculture by nature is, a little bit more of a, what we call an on ramp and off ramp. There's kind of that distance from the time that something is needed versus the time it can be produced. And in the wine industry, it's really difficult to plant to demand. And oftentimes we miss the boat regards to meeting demand with our current supply needs. [00:03:44] So it's really difficult to not only predict, but figure out where consumption is going. And you talked about kind of the simplicity of it and it is true. You can kind of look at the macro market in a very simplistic way, but the reality is in particularly with California, it's very segmented. From value tier up to premium to ultra premium to luxury, and all of those different tiers have different timelines, and some of them converge at moments, depending upon whether there were oversupplied or undersupplied, . So yeah, it can get really complicated and very, very multifaceted. [00:04:18] Craig Macmillan: What's your comment on that, Eddie? [00:04:21] Eddie Urman: Well, I think Audra summed it up pretty well, but yeah, it's a very complex integration of all these things, and planting grapes oftentimes, like Audra said, we tend to overdo it. And we then tend to overdo pushing them out. And it's just kind of a cyclical thing through history where we go from undersupply to oversupply. And right now we're obviously in a pretty large state of oversupply. [00:04:44] Craig Macmillan: Over supply in terms of grapes? [00:04:46] Eddie Urman: Correct [00:04:47] Audra Cooper: and bulk wine. [00:04:48] Craig Macmillan: And bulk wine [00:04:49] what are the kinds of things that are going to lead to a market correction there? Are people going to have to pull out vines? Are they going to have to say, Well, I was planning to sell this wine for 20 bucks a gallon, now I'm going to sell it for 10. [00:05:00] What are some of the dynamics that are going to happen during this time? [00:05:04] Eddie Urman: Well, I think the third rung is consumption, right? Unfortunately the trend over the last two years is consumption is going down in general. And we don't see any signs of it at this time. That's showing it's necessarily going up. We're optimistic and hopeful that it will. And we look forward to seeing the data after the holiday season, but that rung is going to be really important. [00:05:25] The other part is still supply. So pushing vineyards. And we are seeing a lot of people push vineyards. There's no clear number yet of what's been pushed or what will be pushed, but it does seem like there's a lot of parties that will be either ceasing to farm or will be removing vineyards. [00:05:41] Craig Macmillan: This is for either of you to pick up. Are there particular segments where we're seeing this more than in others? Premium versus luxury example. [00:05:48] Audra Cooper: The removal seemed to be really heavily weighted towards the Valley specifically, more of the value tier, because that's our largest volume by far. So we see a lot of removals, particularly in the South Valley that really started to occur even before we felt really oversupplied, and then it started to move north from there, pushed into the Central Coast and even to some degree the North Coast as well. [00:06:10] So you're seeing removals throughout the state of California, and you could even argue that you've seen removals in the Pacific Northwest as well, there's been an oversupply position there, particularly in Washington, and the only two areas that we don't see that dynamic is perhaps Texas to a degree, as well as Oregon. [00:06:27] But there again, they're starting to feel oversupplied as well. They're kind of on the back end of this [00:06:31] the Central Valley is the furthest ahead. And so we may actually see a little bit of a slowdown in removals. They're coming up after the 26th vintage. However, it remains to be seen. I mean, water , constrictions and regulations are going to play a huge factor in that as well, as it will be in the central coast in the near future. [00:06:48] Craig Macmillan: Are there alternate or other crops that may go in, into place instead of grapes? [00:06:53] Audra Cooper: Unfortunately, right now, there's not a good answer for that. In the past, you'd say yes. And there were several alternative crops, particularly in the valley and the central coast, especially when you think of Santa Barbara and Monterey County. Paso Robles is in a little bit of a different position without, you know, a true crop to turn over to. But all of agriculture in California is struggling and has been really affected in the last 24 months, [00:07:16] Craig Macmillan: why the last 24 months, do you think? [00:07:18] Audra Cooper: you know, that's a good question. Part of it is kind of weather patterns in regards to some larger crops and oversupply consumers have certainly had some. Tighter budgets in a lot of respects to the economy. Inflation has played a huge role in that. When we talk about the wine industry, the wine industry is not a necessity as far as the goods. There is certainly a movement towards, you know, what they call no amount of alcohol is healthy for any individual of drinking age. So that certainly has affected our industry, but it's also affected other crops as well and other, other beverages, specifically alcohol. [00:07:53] Craig Macmillan: Eddie, in the Central Coast, what, what have you been seeing? [00:07:56] Eddie Urman: As far as vendor removals or as [00:07:57] Craig Macmillan: Yeah, as far as vineyard removals, things like that. [00:08:01] Eddie Urman: I mean, there are a large number of vineyards that are being pushed out. It's substantial both in Monterey County in Paso Robles, there's parties we're talking to that are also talking about pushing. This upcoming year and not replanting for a year or two. Some are potentially considering alternate other options where they can. But to segue on that, unfortunately it is exceedingly difficult right now to go to any other crop. Cause none of them are necessarily performing super well. [00:08:28] Craig Macmillan: Right. One thing that I'm kind of surprised by based on what you said, Audra, was that we're having the most removal in that value segment where we have the most supply. It would seem to me that if demand out there in the marketplace and folks don't have a lot of money, it seems like there'd be more demand for those value products. [00:08:48] Like, I would think that the contraction would be at the higher level, the expensive level, as opposed to the lower price level. Is there a mechanism there that I'm missing? [00:08:56] Audra Cooper: I think there's not necessarily a mechanism per se. I think there's a layer of complication there that doesn't make it a simple apples to apples position in regards to where consumers are spending their money. A lot of consumers who are brought by, you know, ultra premium to luxury, they may have not been as affected in a relative sense by the economy and inflation is someone who is perhaps playing in more of that value tier. [00:09:21] Okay. Whether it was bag in a box, larger liter, whatever it may have been, you know, that tier that's 12.99 and below had already started to see some impacts during pre immunization. And that was from 2012 until about 2020. And then it's just been really wonky since 2020 in our industry and really difficult to read the tea leaves and as far as where things were going. And I think a lot of the new plantings that we did, In 2011 through 2016 really came online in the central valley as well. So it just, it was almost a perfect storm, unfortunately, for the value tier. But that's not to say that these other tiers haven't been impacted as well, just to a lesser degree. [00:10:01] Craig Macmillan: Right, exactly. Is this also true on the bulk wine side, Audra? [00:10:04] Audra Cooper: Oh, certainly. I think anytime that you look at our industry, the bulk wine market actually leads the trend in regards to the direction we're going. So anytime we start to see multiple vintages, Or one vintage really start to increase in volume and availability in all likelihood. We're about 12 months, maybe eight behind the market with grapes. [00:10:25] So bulk will start to kind of slow down, stack up on inventory. Prices will start to drop. We'll still be doing just fine on grapes. We'll get multi year contracts. Prices are at least sustainable, if not profitable. And then suddenly we'll start to see the same trend on grapes. [00:10:39] Craig Macmillan: How many, or, and Eddie might be able to answer this for the Central Coast. How many folks on the grape side are having wines made from their grapes? Like under contract strictly for bulk. I've got a hundred tons of Sauvignon Blanc unsold. That's a lot, but unsold. I'm going to go ahead and take my chances on the bulk market. [00:11:00] Eddie Urman: you're saying Specking it. [00:11:01] So yeah, crushing it and specking it on the bulk market. Surely there are parties that did that, but I would say there is definitely a lot less parties that did that this year. In 2024 specifically. multiple reasons. One, specifically in Paso Robles, the crop was quite light which increased some late demand for some Cabernet specifically. [00:11:22] Sauvignon Blanc was one of the other varieties that was , in demand because of how light it was. Monterey in Santa Barbara County, it seems like there were parties that decided to just leave grapes on the vine. even in internal vineyards for companies that produce their own wine rather than turn it into bulk. And Audra, please add anything if you feel. [00:11:43] Audra Cooper: I think from a specific standpoint, you know, that was a great way of answering that. I think one of the things to keep in mind is I, I know that we should definitely be mindful of educating and being informative in a general sense, right? The rule of thumb when you're a grape grower and you're trying to sell fruit is if it is difficult to sell as grapes, It will typically be exponentially more difficult to sell as bulk wine. [00:12:07] And so taking that position as a way of bringing profit back , to your vineyard, nine times out of 10 is not going to work out. And that one time is technically a lightning strike and it's extraordinarily difficult to predict that [00:12:20] Craig Macmillan: So not a lot of folks wouldn't be wise to do that for a lot of folks. [00:12:23] Audra Cooper: generally. No, I mean, I think most growers, particularly independent growers do not have the wherewithal or the risk adversity to be able to play the bulk market in any significant way. Okay. Mm [00:12:37] Craig Macmillan: Well, let's talk about wineries playing the bulk market. I've got extra stuff. Now, if it's all internal, if I'm growing my own grapes and turning them into my products, it sounds like I would want to maybe leave things on the vine, or just simply not put my investment into producing those wines. Where do bulk wines come from if they're not coming from spec grower spec operations, if they're coming from wineries in particular? [00:13:01] Things that are cut out for quality, things that are cut out for volume [00:13:04] Audra Cooper: Yeah, a multitude of reasons. I mean, the wineries typically use the bulk wine market as what I had alluded to earlier, which is a pressure release valve, right? When they are short or they are long, they're looking to the bulk market, whether that's to buy or sell. Now, that's certainly not every single winery that does that. Particularly some boutique operations, or even a lot of the DTCs would prefer not to play on the bulk wine market, but at times dabble in it. [00:13:27] Another reason to go to the bulk wine market as a buyer is to start a program. If you've gotten, you know, interest from a retailer, for example, for, you know, a control label that's an easy way to research whether or not it is an economic profitable project for your winery, as well as whether or not you can actually find the varietal. And the volume needed for that project. [00:13:49] So there is a multitude of reasons for the bulk wine market to essentially exist and be utilized. But the traditional model is to sell excess on the bulk wine market to someone else who actually needs it. The challenge right now is, we hit about 29 million gallons of actively listed bulk wine for California back in April or June, and that number really didn't decrease until recently. It's the highest inventory that we'd ever seen going into harvest, and when we have those dynamics, that bulk wine market's utilization becomes a little bit, shall I say, sludgy, in the sense of, Most everyone's trying to sell they're not trying to buy. [00:14:29] Craig Macmillan: Eddie, do you have anything to add? [00:14:30] Eddie Urman: no, I think Audra summed it up pretty good. I mean, you asked, how does it end up on the bulk market? I don't think at this point, there's a ton of players that are planning to put it on the bulk market per Audra's point, but wineries are in their best faith trying to secure the amount of fruit they need to then make wine. That they have a home for IE sale, you know, some sort of sales, but as we've seen contraction in sales, unfortunately for some parties, they're forced to make decisions to put it on the bulk market. That'd be correct. Audra. [00:14:59] Audra Cooper: be a correct way of saying it. And also to have to remember, we're essentially making wine for the future when we're harvesting fruit, right and putting it in tank. And so it's really difficult to predict exactly how much 2024 someone's actually going to be able to put out on the shelf and ship. So I think that's the other element to is, by their model , what they purchased and what they received now, of course, 24 is going to be a poor example of that with how light the crop was, but in general, they're buying for what they predict to be their demand and needs [00:15:30] and in all reality, when it's bottled. Packaged and shipped out, those numbers may look dramatically different. Hence the reason why it's going to end up on the bulk market. If it in fact is already in excess. There are some negotiants that may actually in some years where they think the market's pretty good and they can be profitable, we'll go out and spec, but that kind of business model is few and far between compared to say 15 years ago, [00:15:54] Craig Macmillan: Interesting and that kind of leads us to where we are now. You've already touched on it a little bit. We just finished, this is November of 2024, we're just wrapping up the harvest in California. Obviously it's a crystal ball thing, but basically, at the moment, how are we looking? It sounds like we had a light harvest. I'm going to ask you about that. A light harvest. And it sounds like that was pretty much true throughout the coast of California. Is that right? [00:16:20] Audra Cooper: generally, yes, there were regions and AVAs that did better than others. For example, parts of the North Coast with the exception of Sonoma and Napa, so Mendocino Lake and Sassoon, they were not as light as, say, Paso Robles on Paso Robles Cabernet or Sauvignon Blanc, but they were still below expectations in most cases. There's just certain areas that were impacted further. far more and may actually be at historical low yields. And I'll let Eddie touch upon kind of his experience specifically in Paso, because I think it's one of the more impacted regions in California. [00:16:55] Craig Macmillan: Yeah, yeah. Go ahead, Eddie. [00:16:56] Eddie Urman: Yeah. I think kind of extrapolate on what Audra was speaking to. Paso Robles was exceptionally light last year. I think, you know, our numbers are fluctuating and we'll, we'll see what was actually processed, but potentially 50 percent down from the five year average on Paso cab. And potentially one of the lightest crops we've seen in, potentially 20 years, or at least for sure in my career. Luckily 2024 for Paso was light. And because of that, there were people trying to secure extra cab and South Blanc towards the end of harvest. Unfortunately to, to Audra's point, the rest of the state wasn't as light in other areas. It's going to be pretty interesting to see how it all unfolds because it's probably more regional. [00:17:39] Craig Macmillan: And so we're saying fortunately light because the longterm impact would be that we will have less wine going into an already crowded marketplace. [00:17:50] Eddie Urman: But we also came off 2023, which was probably historically one of the largest crops we've ever seen in the state. So if we would have had a crop like that back to back, that would have been devastating. [00:18:01] Audra Cooper: Yeah, man, that's, that's so very true. And I think it's really important too, to hit upon, you know, the late season purchasing and the run that we saw on grapes. specifically in Paso for Cabernet and to some degree Sauvignon Blanc as well. But I'm going to really kind of lean towards Cab and even some of the red blenders. A lot of that was replacement demand. So it was demand that had been met by a current contract, but because the crop was so extraordinarily light, It had to be made up for somewhere. So there was a need for the fruit that was contracted, but if we didn't have that dynamic with available grapes, we probably would have had grapes left on the vine. [00:18:38] And we did to some degree, but just far less than what was predicted in 2024. [00:18:44] Craig Macmillan: This reminds me also of the, the concept of volatility. How volatile is the bulk wine grape grape market? We talked about these long time frames, which means your price changes you would think would be slow. Is, is there a lot of jumping around just in the course of a calendar year? [00:18:59] Audra Cooper: Yes and no. It really depends on the year. I would certainly say that in very light years we will see more volatility on price. Then in years where it's way oversupplied, or we have a large crop that creates more stability, good or bad, with a heavier crop. But it's not as volatile as maybe some other markets that people are trying to, you know, short on, for example, with the Wall Street guys. It's not quite like that either. So there is a little bit more stability built into it. [00:19:27] I think the challenge Happens often is a lot of people build their business models off of the district averages and the district averages don't show as much volatility as the, you know, yearly spot market does. [00:19:40] And unfortunately, it used to be a rule of thumb that about 10 percent of California supply was on the spot market every single year. Now I think that's closer to probably 30 something percent. I mean, it's really jumped in the last few years. [00:19:54] We have to remember our industry has been in a really interesting and an unfortunate position of retracting over the last couple of years with consumer demand declining, with the economic impacts with inflation, with lack of, you know, operating loans being readily available like they were. [00:20:10] I mean, things have changed pretty dramatically. I have a strong belief. I won't even say hope because hope's not a strategy. I have a strong belief that, you know, as we go through some of these challenges, We'll essentially build back and we'll get to a healthier position. And I do think that some of the worst things are some of the bigger pain points we either, recently have gone through and are over with or that we're in currently. So I don't think it's going to get much worse, but it remains to be seen. That one's a hard one to kind of figure out. But my, my thought is that with the lighter crop, it's certainly going to help the bulk wine market, not stack up, you know, a large fifth vintage, cause we have currently five vintages stacked. Stacked on top of each other in bulk wine market, which again, is the most amount of vintages I've seen in the 18 years I've been doing this. And that does show, you know, we met with a client yesterday and they said, our industry is sick. And I think that's actually a really great way of putting it. We're we're kind of in a sick position and we just need to figure out how to get to a healthier spot. [00:21:10] Craig Macmillan: five vintages stacked up that, so we're talking, there's like 2019 that are still in the market. Then [00:21:16] Audra Cooper: There is a little tiny bit of 2019, there's a tiny bit of 2020, and then you get into 21, 22, 23, and then the 24s are starting to come on. [00:21:25] Craig Macmillan: is there a home for something that's that old, even [00:21:30] 2020, [00:21:31] Audra Cooper: I mean, 2022 is about the oldest vintage back that I would say, in all likelihood, there's a reasonable wine based home, and even that's starting to get a little bit long in the tooth when we talk about 21 and 2020. Forget about 2019, that should have gone somewhere at some point long ago. Those vintages in all likelihood, again, they're smaller amounts, I think they're less than 100, 000 gallons each. [00:21:57] They're gonna have to go somewhere, whether it's destroyed or they go to DM. [00:22:01] Craig Macmillan: right? What's DM. [00:22:03] Audra Cooper: Distilled materials. [00:22:04] Craig Macmillan: There we go. Perfect. [00:22:06] Eddie, if you were advising a grape growing, what is your view? Looking ahead, what's your crystal ball say as far as removals, planting, varietal changes, clone changes, rootstock changes, anything like that? [00:22:20] Eddie Urman: Yeah, well we get that question a lot and it's pretty difficult to answer. At this point, you know, growers should really be considering which blocks they should be farming. They should be strongly considering pushing out blocks that are older or have no chance at receiving a price sustainably farm it. economically. And as far as planting goes right now, it's all over the board. It depends on the region, you know, where you're at within the central coast. That's which is my region specifically. And even then it's pretty hard to justify to somebody right now. It's a good time to plant. [00:22:56] That's [00:22:57] Craig Macmillan: that does make sense, I am thinking about other interviews that I've done with, with plant, plant pathology. Where it seems like everything is going to someplace bad in a hand basket because vines are dying. Do I replant that? You would think that diseases, like trunk disease, for instance, would alleviate some of this. [00:23:15] Vines would need to come out of production. Do you see that kind of thing happening? Do you think people are picking not just older, but maybe damaged or diseased or infested vineyards, taking those out of production and then not replanting those? [00:23:27] Eddie Urman: Yeah, they definitely are. The, difficult thing with vineyards compared to certain other crops is the fixed costs that go into installing a vineyard, which has gone up drastically in the last 15 years. So it's really difficult for a grower to push a vineyard you know, spend $2,000 an acre to push a vineyard or whatever it may be, and then decide, okay, we're just going to replant next year and spend 45, 000 or 40, 000. On reinstalling a vineyard. It's, it's a lot of money. Especially if it's on spec and, and honestly, sometimes it can't even get financing to do it. [00:23:59] So unfortunately, a lot of these players will need to say, we'll try to stick it out and say, okay, what if we just weather the storm one more year, the eternal optimist, the eternal optimist. View. I think we're finally starting to see that some people are, are making some tough decisions and it's, it's sad to see, but it's what needs to happen as far as pushing some of these vineyards that are diseased or too old to be productive. [00:24:20] Audra Cooper: I think he did a, you know, a service to everyone by talking about that, because the older plantings for as long as people had to hold on to them you know, we, talk a lot about, you know, oh, the 1990s plantings and they need to go away. Well, that's really easy to say it's a little more difficult to do, particularly again, if you're an independent grower. Relatively small, maybe your 20 acres, you know, the likelihood of you being able to get a planting contract and or getting financing to redevelop is slim to none. So you're going to hold on as long as you can. And that really has kind of added to the bottom line of supply as well. We have a lot of acreage that is finally starting to get removed that should have been removed years ago. [00:25:01] Craig Macmillan: And again, thinking in like classical high school economic terms It seems like grape prices have been going up, at least on Paso and some of those kind of more luxury areas. Is that true? Or is there a real cap on price compared to what it could have been? Or are we in decline? What, what's, what's happening right now? [00:25:24] Ha [00:25:24] Audra Cooper: I think that's actually a very loaded question in some respects because [00:25:30] Craig Macmillan: yeah, it [00:25:31] Audra Cooper: It's highly dependent on what we're talking about, right? If we're talking about Westside and we're talking about some of the Rhone Whites that are now in vogue, yeah, their pricing has started to increase even in spite of the market, right? Because they are in demand, but they're more of a niche market as well. They're not part of the macro market. Whereas you look at Paso Cab, The district average was starting to kind of climb back up again, but if you look at the spot market, it has declined dramatically over the last two years. And I think we're in our third decline now, as far as per year per vintage you look at, for example, Monterey County, Pinot, and I think you can easily make the argument prices dramatically decreased over the last several years. You know, it had a great run post sideways and unfortunately we way over planted and we planted it in a time where there was a lot of virus material that unfortunately got put into the ground and then we oversaturated the market on the shelves as well from a national distribution standpoint, if you want to talk about maybe some cool climate, Sarah, yeah, pricing continues to go up, but they're again, very nichey. So I guess the long winded thing is macro sense. Prices have been on the decline. Niche, it depends on what it is and where it is. [00:26:46] Craig Macmillan: And I, I got this from you, Audra, from another interview you did. What is the difference between a light harvest and a short harvest? And the reason I ask this is because it, on the wine side, talking to people, it's like, Oh, it's going to be a short harvest, coming up short. As in, I don't have enough. [00:27:02] I'm coming up short. It's like, I don't have dollar bills in my pocket. That's totally different than having not a lot of grapes. [00:27:09] Audra Cooper: Yeah, I mean, from a market perspective in which we operate, those two words have very different definitions. Light to me is regarding your yield per acre, your production. It's a light year. We're below average thresholds. Short on the other hand is more of an economic demand supply term that we utilize when The actual crop being delivered falls short of the actual demand. And that's a little bit tricky this year because a lot of people were saying the crop is short. Well, it was in only some cases. For example, Sauvignon Blanc, specifically in Paso, it was short. There's, I don't think there's really any arguing that. Paso Cab, I think it depends on what winery and which grower you are. There were growers who were sold out and fully contracted that were not able to meet their contracts and their wineries would have taken every single time they could have delivered. That's a short situation. Now, on the other hand, I've got some other stuff that say is like a 1997 planting that, you know, didn't have a whole lot of demand. They were light in their crop yield, but they were not short in their supply. [00:28:18] Craig Macmillan: What are things that growers in particular can do to set themselves apart in the marketplace? You mentioned niche, we've mentioned county average pricing, wherever you would like to be selling their grapes for more than that. And they do. What are things that people can do to kind of set themselves apart? Eddie. [00:28:35] Eddie Urman: That's a great question. It's a very difficult question. I think I'll start on the other end of the spectrum. You hear somewhat frequently people talk about minimal farming, or can they do just to get you by this year, get you into the next year what we've discussed with multiple people and what my belief is, unfortunately, if you decide to minimally farm or do the absolute bare minimum, you're boxing yourself into a area of the market. Where there's no chance you're gonna get a price that's really gonna even break even. I think most parties would agree to that. The best thing for our industry, and specifically Paso Robles, the Central Coast, is we need to continue to deliver quality products that, you know, a winery can make into good wine and sell at a good price. Right. So we need to continue to improve on our farming techniques, improve on our utilization of the resources we have to provide that product and reach a sustainable point of price to where vineyards can sustain, growers can continue to stay in business, and wineries can then take that product and sell it in a bottle profitably at a store or restaurant or whatever it may be. [00:29:45] So I kind of danced around your question, but my personal opinion is, if you want to be in this business and you want to create a product, you know, create a grape that people want to buy, you have to put the money into it to farm it. It sounds easy to say it's extremely difficult for the people making these decisions right now. [00:30:03] Craig Macmillan: You may have to spend a little money. [00:30:05] Audra Cooper: you definitely do. I mean, I think, Anytime that you slow down on what you spend, unfortunately you start to decrease your marketability. And that is so difficult in years like this, where as a broker, you watch someone cut their budget and their spending in half and you immediately notice, I can't sell your fruit. And that's a difficult thing because you can't necessarily guarantee that you can sell their fruit either. So how do you justify someone spending, you know, their normal budget? [00:30:37] One of the things that growers specifically can do is they can identify their value proposition. And for many, it's going to be unique, and some of them are going to have similarities. Part of that is, and I'm probably going to get myself in trouble a little bit here, the old kind of lead with, you know, I've gotten these gold medals for the wine that I produced off of my vineyard at these, you know, county fairs or this competition. Unfortunately, they just don't count anymore with marketing winemakers that are, you know, new on the scene, or perhaps with a new corporation, or, Somebody who's been through kind of the ropes, these things don't have any weight anymore. [00:31:17] But what does have weight is understanding what your buyer's needs are and how your vineyard actually fits those needs. So really understanding, where you fit into the market. Not everyone's going to have the best grapes in the region. And that's okay because maybe that is already oversaturated. [00:31:34] Maybe you need to hit a middle tier winery that's selling at 15. 99 and you know that you can be sustainable at $1,500 because this is your budget XYZ and it fits. You know, you don't necessarily have to be the 3, 000 or 4, 000 guy on the west side in Adelaide or Willow Creek. That's not going to be for everybody. [00:31:54] So really finding your position is really important and also what you provide to that buyer. And it's really simple, and I know it's actually probably very elementary to say, but what can you do to help make the people you work with at that winery make them look good? Because they'll also do that for you in return. [00:32:11] Craig Macmillan: and specifically in your experience, especially to start with you Eddie are there particular practices management styles, management philosophies that seem to be attractive to wineries that they're more likely to maybe buy from that grower? [00:32:25] Eddie Urman: Yeah, I'll just probably give a little more detail here, but my experience comes mostly from larger scale farming. At the end of the day, I think the more you put into farming it appropriately, IE you know, good pruning techniques good cultural practices, whether they be shoot thinning leafing, depending on your trellis style wire moves second crop drop or, or green drop. Those are all things that, you know, wineries are going to think are a positive thing. [00:32:54] Now, is it going to match every single program to Audra's point? And you don't always have to be the person selling $3,000 per ton cabernet. Some people can make just fine in those middle tiers. [00:33:03] And we need those people too, because there's bottles that need to go on the shelves there. So if you can have an open, reasonable discussion with your winery and what their expectations are and what you can actually provide at a certain price point and yield I think that's really important place to start. [00:33:18] Craig Macmillan: Audra? [00:33:18] Audra Cooper: Yeah, I think there's a couple things. Again, this is very elementary, but say what you do and do what you say. Following through with your word and what your plan is, is very, very important and being very consistent with your practices and the end product that you try to provide. I mean, consistency in agriculture, particularly in growing wine grapes, is very difficult, but those who achieve it are the ones that typically don't have as much volatility in their ability to sell fruit. on, you know, a term contract, typically. [00:33:46] I think the other thing, too, keeping in mind is managing personalities, too, and understanding, you know, who's the right fit for each other. I think that's really important, I think, from a practice's standpoint and I think this is becoming more and more commonly acceptable, but shoot thinning, when I first arrived in Paso even Monterey County, for that matter, is, was not very common. [00:34:10] It's becoming more and more common, and I think it's actually very important. And Eddie has kind of reaffirmed and reassured me since he started with Turrentine Brokerage, and I kind of failed to remember my basics. Pruning is everything. And I think sometimes often more than not, you know, pruning actually kind of gets It's in my mind kind of degraded and, you know, people try to make up for things later on and we start with the right foundation, usually have some consistency. [00:34:36] Craig Macmillan: So that's somewhere you may want to pay more attention and spend some more of your money there than in some other things. [00:34:42] Audra Cooper: Well, and your plan starts there, right? [00:34:43] So whatever you start with at pruning, that's your beginning plan. In all likelihood, you need to write that out. [00:34:49] Eddie Urman: , be intentional with your pruning plan. From the time you start the season, you should have a plan. Okay. This is what we're going to target this year and you got to stick to it. . [00:34:57] Craig Macmillan: What about, , certifications? There was a time not that long ago when going for whether it's SIP or organic we've got regenerative now a lot of folks looked at that and said, hey, this is going to help set me apart. This is going to help and with buyers, buyers are going to be interested in wanting these types of products. [00:35:18] Have you seen that take place? [00:35:20] Audra Cooper: Yeah, I have a really, really strong opinion on sustainable certification. And I'm sure a lot of our clientele is probably tired of me hitting this drum too loudly, but the reality is at one point, sustainable certification, regardless of which it is. Was a nice to have and the occasional request now. It's a it's a need to have must have [00:35:39] if you are not sustainably certified you are cutting your marketability I wouldn't say in half but pretty close now a lot of our buyers are requiring it and even if they don't require it suddenly asking at the end of harvest Oh, did they have a certification? and then the answer is no well now you may be on the chopping block of we may not re sign that fruit because Our retailers are asking us, what are we doing in regards to, you know, our kind of our social impacts in our economic and our environmental impacts? And it may not be on the bottle per se, but it's in the conversation. And so to be able to provide that information to the end user is really important [00:36:19] when it comes to the other certifications. Certainly organic is trending. It is trended off and on in our industry. Unfortunately, we don't see a big premium being paid for, for grapes that are organically certified with some exceptions. [00:36:33] And so that's really hard, I think, from an industry to, to really grow in that manner. Regenerative is certainly another trend. I think we're on the beginning cusp of it, so I don't see it as, you know, impactful as sustainably certified on macro level. As I do sustainable. So it'll be interesting to see where that goes. [00:36:53] I think organic those probably going to trend a little bit more in 26 and 27 just based on the players that are currently asking about it. [00:37:01] Craig Macmillan: What do you have to add, Eddie? [00:37:02] Eddie Urman: Yeah, I think Audra's absolutely right. We are in a state of excess or oversupply. So wineries are more intensely looking at. How can we differentiate one vineyard or one grower versus the next? And sustainability comes up in most conversations regarding that. So it's turning more from an option to more of a necessity. [00:37:24] I think one thing that there's a trend for unfortunately too, or it can be unfortunately for some people, is they're herbicide free. So there are some people that are interested in herbicide free. It's not a certification, [00:37:34] Craig Macmillan: Yeah, just simply as a practice. Yeah, I, agree with you. I'm hearing more and more about that all the time. And that's a, that's a big shift for a lot of growers. That's a very costly change to make. But you're absolutely right. That is a topic of conversation. That is definitely something that people are talking about in, in the broader world. There's a lot of news attention to that, especially around places like France and stuff, or that's going to be kind of a requirement probably in the future. [00:38:01] Audra Cooper: I just want to add really quick. One of the challenges that we see is Oftentimes wineries will come to the market requesting these differentiation points, right, in regards to practices, and it's really difficult because when they come to the market, a lot of these processes and procedures needed to have already been put into place, right? They would have already had to be intended or implemented in the field. And so we're, again, almost a bridge behind in regards to what demand currently is and, and this particular trend. Especially when we talk about organic herbicide free. These are very intentional, time intensive planning processes that we've got to get ahead of. [00:38:43] And I don't have a great answer because the market doesn't support a higher price per ton right now. And the reality is there are capital intensive changes in farming, but we're going to need to find a solution here soon because I do see this as a challenge in the market moving forward. [00:38:59] Craig Macmillan: and I think there's some research that kind of bears that out even at the consumer level where if I'm presented with two products that are the same price and one has a desirable quality, whether it's a practice or certification or something like that, you would say, you know, Which one would you like? [00:39:14] You say, well, I want the sustainable one. And then you ask the consumer, well, how much would you pay? And there's very little willingness to pay difference in some of these studies. In others, they show a meaningful amount, but a lot of them, a lot of the studies don't. And so I think we're kind of moving towards a standard operating procedure that's gonna be around these things and that's gonna raise costs and that's gonna be a real financial challenge for people, I agree. [00:39:38] Eddie, what is one thing you would tell growers around this topic of the market and everything else? [00:39:43] Eddie Urman: I think it was , the statement I made earlier is be intentional, like have a plan going into this year. We farmers tend to be optimistic and we tend to just think, okay, well, this year it's going to turn, you know, we've had a couple of bad years. It's going to get better this year. There's no guarantee that's going to take place this year. And we'd love to sit here and say it will. So make sure you have a plan that makes sense. And has a reasonable chance at having a positive outcome. If it's farming your 30 year old vineyard, 35 year old vineyard, that's for sure, only going to get three tons an acre or less on a best case scenario, no weather influences, no outside factors, no heat spells, and it's going to cost you 5, 000 an acre to farm it. You're not going to make your money back in most instances, unfortunately, not even break even. [00:40:29] Craig Macmillan: Audra, what is one thing you would tell growers? [00:40:31] Audra Cooper: That's a good question. And I think it's highly dependent on the grower and the clientele and where they are and what they have. I think that planning for your future is critical right now, not taking it year by year. And making changes in advance of needing to make changes is a huge one. Honestly, it's really getting sharp with your business pencil and in your business intention, your business plan. It's not just farming right now. I think you have to plan on how do you survive the current marketplace and how do you get to the other side? And unfortunately, it's not a cookie cutter plan for everyone. It's very customized and it's very specific. [00:41:11] And the other thing that I mentioned earlier, really understanding your value proposition in the market. That is critical because I can't tell you the number of times I've had people And very wonderful, good growers who are very intelligent, but they were very misguided by whether it was, you know, a real estate agent or a consultant or just people surrounding who also had good intentions, but they weren't knowledgeable about the marketplace. And, you know, those growers either planted wrong, entered the market wrong, had to have high expectations built into their budget on the price per ton long term, all these things matter. And all these things really matter for success. [00:41:48] Craig Macmillan: Where can people find out more about you two? Audra. [00:41:51] Audra Cooper: Yeah you can go to our website, www. TurrentineBrokerage. You can of course call myself or Eddie or email us. You'll often see us up on, you know, a stage or in a room speaking on behalf of the marketplace. I've got something coming up soon in February as well. Yeah, there's, there's a multitude of ways of getting a hold of us. [00:42:10] Probably our website's the easiest because it has all the information. [00:42:13] Craig Macmillan: Fantastic. Well, thank you both for being on the podcast. Really interesting conversation. lot to think about. A lot to think about. Intentional farming, I think that's one of the key things we're taking away here is what's your intention. And that's not always such an easy thing to decide upon. You know, it's tough. [00:42:31] Audra Cooper: It is tough. We thank you and we appreciate it. It was a pleasure talking with you as well. [00:42:36] Eddie Urman: yeah, thank you very much, Craig. [00:42:37] Craig Macmillan: You bet. So our guest today, Audra Cooper, she is director of grape brokerage and Eddie Urman, who is central coast grape broker for Turentine brokerage. Thank you both for coming out and to our listeners, keep downloading those episodes. There's lots of great information there. Check the show page or there's lots of resources and look for other podcasts. [00:42:55] We have tons and tons of episodes on all kinds of topics and please keep coming back and thank you. [00:43:01] Audra Cooper: Thank you. [00:43:02] Beth Vukmanic: Thank you for listening. Make sure you check out the show notes for links to Turrentine brokerage crush reports, and sustainable wine growing podcast episodes, 185, why you need to talk about sustainability. And 221 future proof your wine business with Omnichannel communication. [00:43:27] If you liked this show, do us a big favor by sharing it with a friend, subscribing and leaving us a review. You can find all of the podcasts at vineyardteam.org/podcast. And you can reach us at podcast at vineyardteam.org. [00:43:40] Until next time, this is sustainable wine growing with the vineyard team.   Nearly perfect transcription by Descript