Manifold

Theodore A. Postol is professor emeritus of Science, Technology, and International Security at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is widely known as an expert on nuclear weapons and missile technology.Educated in physics and nuclear engineering at MIT, he was a researcher at Argonne National Lab, worked at the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, and was scientific advisor to the Chief of Naval Operations.After leaving the Pentagon, Postol helped to build a program at Stanford University to train mid-career scientists to study weapons technology in relation to defense and arms control policy.He has received numerous awards, including the Leo Szilard Prize from the American Physical Society for "incisive technical analysis of national security issues that [have] been vital for informing the public policy debate",  the Norbert Wiener Award from Computer Professionals for Social Responsibility for "uncovering numerous and important false claims about missile defenses", and the Richard L. Garwin Award "that recognizes an individual who, through exceptional achievement in science and technology, has made an outstanding contribution toward the benefit of mankind."Steve and Ted discuss:0:00 Introduction2:02 Early life in Brooklyn, education at MIT, work at the Pentagon20:27 Reagan's “Star Wars” defense plan28:26 U.S. influence on Russia and China's second-strike capabilities54:41 Missile defense: vs nuclear weapons, scuds, anti-ship missiles (aircraft carriers), hypersonics 1:11:42 Nuclear escalation and the status of mutually assured destruction1:32:24 Analysis of claims the Syrian government used chemical agents against their own people1:44:45 Media skepticism Resources: Theodore Postol at MIT https://sts-program.mit.edu/people/emeriti-faculty/theodore-postol/A Flawed and Dangerous US Missile Defense Plan, G. Lewis and T. Postol, Arms Control Todayhttps://www.armscontrol.org/act/2010-05/flawed-dangerous-us-missile-defense-planReview Cites Flaws in US antimissile Program, NY Times May 17 2010 https://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/18/world/18missile.htmlImproving US Ballistic Missile Defense Policy, G. Lewis and F. von Hippel, Arms Control Today, May 2018https://sgs.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/2019-10/lewis-vonhippel-2018.pdf“Whose Sarin?” by Seymour Hersh (2013) https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v35/n24/seymour-m.-hersh/whose-sarin--Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Raghu Parthasarathy is the Alec and Kay Keith Professor of Physics at the University of Oregon. His research focuses on biophysics, exploring systems in which the complex interactions between individual components, such as biomolecules or cells, can give rise to simple and robust physical patterns. Raghu is the author of a recent popular science book: So Simple a Beginning: How Four Physical Principles Shape Our Living World.Steve and Raghu discuss: 1:34 - Early life, transition from Physics to Biophysics20:15 - So Simple a Beginning: discussion of the Four Physical Principles in the title, which govern biological systems26:06 - DNA prediction37:46 - Machine learning / causality in science46:23 - Scaling (the fourth physical principle) 54:12 - Who the book is for and what high schoolers are learning in their bio and physics classes1:05:41 - Science funding, grants, running a research lab1:09:12 - Scientific careers and radical sub-optimality of the existing system Resources: Book - https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691200408/so-simple-a-beginning Raghuveer Parthasarathy's lab at the University of Oregon - https://pages.uoregon.edu/raghu/ Raghuveer Parthasarathy's blog the Eighteenth Elephant - https://eighteenthelephant.com/Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Carl Zha is the host of the Silk and Steel podcast, which focuses on China, history, culture, and politics. He is a former engineer now based in Bali, Indonesia.Find Carl on Twitter @CarlZha.Steve and Carl discuss:1. Carl's background: Chongqing to Chicago, Caltech to Bali, Life as a digital nomad2. Xinjiang (35:20)3. Ukraine (1:03:51)4. China-Russia relationship (1:16:01)5. U.S.-China competition (1:49:26)Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Scott Aaronson is the David J. Bruton Centennial Professor of Computer Science at The University of Texas at Austin, and director of its Quantum Information Center. Previously, he taught for nine years in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at MIT. His research interests center around the capabilities and limits of quantum computers, and computational complexity theory more generally. Scott also writes the blog Shtetl Optimized: https://scottaaronson.blog/ Steve and Scott discuss: Scott's childhood and education, first exposure to mathematics and computers. How he became interested in computational complexity, pursuing it rather than AI/ML. The development of quantum computation and quantum information theory from the 1980s to the present. Scott's work on quantum supremacy. AGI, AI Safety Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Sebastian Mallaby is a writer and journalist whose work covers financial markets, international relations, innovation, and technology. He is the author of "The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future." Steve and Sebastian discuss venture capital, tech startups, business model and technology innovation, global adoption of the Silicon Valley model, and the future of innovation.Biography:https://www.cfr.org/expert/sebastian-mallabyhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sebastian_MallabyThe Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Futurehttps://www.amazon.com/Power-Law-Venture-Capital-Making/dp/052555999X--Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Vlatko Vedral is Professor in the Department of Physics at the University of Oxford and Centre for Quantum Technologies (CQT) at the National University of Singapore. He is known for his research on the theory of Entanglement and Quantum Information Theory.Steve and Vlatko discuss:  History of quantum information theory, entanglement, and quantum computing Recent lab experiments that create superposition states of macroscopic objects, including a living creature (tardigrade) Whether quantum mechanics implies the existence of many worlds: are you in a superposition state right now? Present status and future of quantum computing ResourcesWeb page:https://www.vlatkovedral.com/Entanglement Between Superconducting Qubits and a Tardigradehttps://arxiv.org/pdf/2112.07978.pdfMacroscopic Superposition States: entanglement of a macroscopic living organism (tardigrade) with a superconducting qubithttps://infoproc.blogspot.com/2021/12/macroscopic-superposition-states.html--Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or to Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Richard Sander is Jesse Dukeminier Professor at UCLA Law School. AB Harvard, JD, PhD (Economics) Northwestern.Sander has studied the structure and effects of law school admissions policies. He coined the term "Mismatch" to describe negative consequences resulting from large admissions preferences.Topics discussed: 1. Early life: educational background and experience with race andpolitics in America. 2. Mismatch Theory: basic observation and empirical evidence; Lawschools and Colleges; Duke and UC data; data access issues. 3. CA Prop 209 and Prop 16. 4. SCOTUS and Harvard / UNC admissions case 5. Intellectual climate on campus, freedom of speech Resources: Faculty web page, includes links to publications:https://law.ucla.edu/faculty/faculty-profiles/richard-h-sander  A Conversation on the Nature, Effects, and Future of Affirmative Action in Higher Education Admissions (with Peter Arcidiacono, Thomas Espenshade, and Stacy Hawkins), University of Pennsylvania Journal of Constitutional Law 683 (2015)   https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2625668 Fifteen Questions About Prop. 16 and Prop. 209, University of Chicago Law Review Online (2020)https://lawreviewblog.uchicago.edu/2020/10/30/aa-sander/ Panel at Stanford Intellectual Diversity Conference, April 8, 2016, Stanford Law Schoolhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RZbz-lHwVM--Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Shai Carmi is Professor of Statistical and Medical Genetics at Hebrew University (Jerusalem). Carmi Lab: https://scarmilab.org/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/ShaiCarmi  Topics and links: Shai's educational background. From statistical physics and network theory to genomics. Shai's paper on embryo selection: Schizophrenia risk. Modeling synthetic sibling genomes. Variance among sibs vs general population. RRR vs ARR, family history and elevated polygenic risk. (Link to paper: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.05.370478v3) Response to the ESHG opinion piece on embryo selection. https://twitter.com/ShaiCarmi/status/1487694576458481664 Pleiotropy, Health Index scores. Genetic genealogy and DNA forensics. Solving cold cases, Othram, etc. (Link to paper: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aau4832) Healthcare in Israel. Application of PRS in adult patients. Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Jon Y produces Asianometry, which focuses on Asia technology, finance, and history: Podcast, YouTube channel, and Substack.Steve and Jon discuss the global semiconductor industry with an emphasis on U.S.-China technology competition. Topics discussed: Jon's background and his move to Taipei. Key components of the semiconductor ecosystem: fabs, lithography, chip design. US-China tech war TSMC, ASML, Huawei Taiwan politics: Green and Blue parties, independence PRC invasion / blockade of Taiwan? Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Richard Hanania is President of the Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology (CSPI). He is a former Research Fellow at the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University. His interests include personality differences between conservatives and liberals, morality in international politics, machine learning algorithms for text analysis, and American foreign policy. In addition to his academic work, he has written in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post. Hanania holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from UCLA and a JD from the University of Chicago.He is the author of the recently published Public Choice Theory and the Illusion of Grand Strategy: How Generals, Weapons Manufacturers, and Foreign Governments Shape American Foreign Policy.ResourcesRichard Hanania on Twitter - https://twitter.com/RichardHananiaCSPI - https://cspicenter.org/Public Choice Theory and the Illusion of Grand Strategyhttps://www.amazon.com/Public-Choice-Theory-Illusion-Strategy-ebook/dp/B09L9Y2W7SThe Great Awokening | Zach Goldberg & Richard Hananiahttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4UmdveWMURc&ab_channel=CSPIMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.

Steve answers questions about recent progress in AI/ML prediction of complex traits from DNA and applications in embryo selection.Highlights: Overview of recent advances in trait prediction Would cost savings from breast cancer early detection pay for genotyping of all women? How does IVF work? Economics of embryo selection Whole embryo genotyping increases IVF success rates (pregnancy per transfer) significantly Future predictions Some relevant scientific papers: Preimplantation Genetic Testing for Aneuploidy: New Methods and Higher Pregnancy Rates - https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2022/01/preimplantation-genetic-testing-for.html 2021 review article on complex trait prediction - https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.05870 Accurate Genomic Prediction of Human Height - https://www.genetics.org/content/210/2/477 Genomic Prediction of 16 Complex Disease Risks Including Heart Attack, Diabetes, Breast and Prostate Cancer - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-51258-x Genetic architecture of complex traits and disease risk predictors - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-68881-8 Sibling validation of polygenic risk scores and complex trait prediction - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-69927-7 Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon.Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.You can find Steve's writing on his blog Information Processing.ManifoldOne YouTube channel.

James Lee is a professor of psychology at the University of Minnesota. He is a leading researcher working in behavior genetics and statistical genetics. In this episode, he discusses recent progress in the genomic prediction of complex traits such as cognitive ability and educational attainment. Lee also discusses his recent Wall Street Journal editorial on embryo selection, Imagine a Future Without Sex.Resources Imagine a Future Without Sex: Reproductive technology may lead us to realize too late that being human is better than playing God James Lee academic web page Social Science Genetic Association Consortium (SSGAC) Nature Genetics: Gene discovery and polygenic prediction from a genome-wide association study of educational attainment in 1.1 million individuals Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon.Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.You can find Steve's writing on his blog Information Processing.ManifoldOne YouTube channel.

Steve and Corey talk to Warren Hatch, President and CEO of Good Judgment Inc. Warren explains what makes someone a good forecaster and how the ability to integrate and assess information allows cognitively diverse teams to outperform prediction markets. The hosts express skepticism about whether the incentives at work in large organizations would encourage the adoption of approaches that might lead to better forecasts. Warren describes the increasing depth of human-computer collaboration in forecasting. Steve poses the long-standing problem of assessing alpha in finance and Warren suggests that the emerging alpha-brier metric, linking process and outcome, might shed light on the issue. The episode ends with Warren describing Good Judgment's open invitation to self-identified experts to join a new COVID forecasting platform.Resources Transcript Good Judgment Inc Good Judgment Open Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Noriel Roubini (Wikipedia)

Steve and Corey talk to Warren Hatch, President and CEO of Good Judgment Inc. Warren explains what makes someone a good forecaster and how the ability to integrate and assess information allows cognitively diverse teams to outperform prediction markets. The hosts express skepticism about whether the incentives at work in large organizations would encourage the adoption of approaches that might lead to better forecasts. Warren describes the increasing depth of human-computer collaboration in forecasting. Steve poses the long-standing problem of assessing alpha in finance and Warren suggests that the emerging alpha-brier metric, linking process and outcome, might shed light on the issue. The episode ends with Warren describing Good Judgment’s open invitation to self-identified experts to join a new COVID forecasting platform.

Corey and Steve interview Leif Wenar, Professor of Philosophy at Stanford University and author of Blood Oil. They begin with memories of Leif and Corey's mutual friend David Foster Wallace and end with a discussion of John Rawls and Robert Nozick (Wenar's thesis advisor at Harvard, and a friend of Steve's). Corey asks whether Leif shares his view that analytic philosophy had become too divorced from wider intellectual life. Leif explains his effort to re-engage philosophy in the big issues of our day as Hobbes, Rousseau, Locke, Mill and Marx were in theirs. He details how a trip to Nigeria gave him insight into the real problems facing real people in oil-rich countries. Leif explains how the legal concept of “efficiency” led to the resource curse and argues that we should refuse to buy oil from countries that are not minimally accountable to their people. Steve notes that some may find this approach too idealistic and not in the US interest. Leif suggests that what philosophers can contribute is the ability to see the big synthetic picture in a complex world.Resources Transcript Leif Wenar (Bio) Blood Oil: Tyrants, Violence, and the Rules That Run the World John Rawls – Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy Peter Nozick – Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy

Corey and Steve interview Leif Wenar, Professor of Philosophy at Stanford University and author of Blood Oil. They begin with memories of Leif and Corey’s mutual friend David Foster Wallace and end with a discussion of John Rawls and Robert Nozick (Wenar's thesis advisor at Harvard, and a friend of Steve's). Corey asks whether Leif shares his view that analytic philosophy had become too divorced from wider intellectual life. Leif explains his effort to re-engage philosophy in the big issues of our day as Hobbes, Rousseau, Locke, Mill and Marx were in theirs. He details how a trip to Nigeria gave him insight into the real problems facing real people in oil-rich countries. Leif explains how the legal concept of “efficiency” led to the resource curse and argues that we should refuse to buy oil from countries that are not minimally accountable to their people. Steve notes that some may find this approach too idealistic and not in the US interest. Leif suggests that what philosophers can contribute is the ability to see the big synthetic picture in a complex world.

Steve and Corey speak with Dr. Michael Kauffman, co-founder and CEO of Karyopharm Therapeutics, about cancer and biotech innovation. Michael explains how he and Dr. Sharon Schacham tested her idea regarding nuclear-transport using simulation software on a home laptop, and went on to beat 1000:1 odds to create a billion dollar company. They discuss the relationship between high proprietary drug costs and economic incentives for drug discovery. They also discuss the unique US biotech ecosystem, and why innovation is easier in small (vs. large) companies. Michael explains how Karyopharm is targeting its drug at COVID-induced inflammation to treat people with severe forms of the disease.Resources Transcript Michael Kauffman (Bio) Karyopharm's Publications and Presentations The Great American Drug Deal: A New Prescription for Innovative and Affordable Medicines by Peter Kolchinsky

Steve and Corey speak with Dr. Michael Kauffman, co-founder and CEO of Karyopharm Therapeutics, about cancer and biotech innovation. Michael explains how he and Dr. Sharon Schacham tested her idea regarding nuclear-transport using simulation software on a home laptop, and went on to beat 1000:1 odds to create a billion dollar company. They discuss the relationship between high proprietary drug costs and economic incentives for drug discovery. They also discuss the unique US biotech ecosystem, and why innovation is easier in small (vs. large) companies. Michael explains how Karyopharm is targeting its drug at COVID-induced inflammation to treat people with severe forms of the disease.

Corey and Steve talk to Scott Adams, creator of Dilbert and author of Loserthink. Steve reviews some of Scott's predictions, including of Trump's 2016 victory. Scott (who once semi-humorously described himself as “left of Bernie”) describes what he describes as Trump's unique “skill stack”. Scott highlights Trump's grasp of the role of psychology in economics, and maintains that honesty requires admitting that we do not know whether many of Trump's policies are good or bad. Scott explains why he thinks it is mistaken to assume leaders are irrational.Resources Transcript Scott Adams (Blog and Podcast) Loserthink: How Untrained Brains Are Ruining America Kihlstrom J. F. (1997). Hypnosis, memory and amnesia. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 352(1362), 1727–1732. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.1997.0155 Hypnosis and Memory (Blog Post)

Corey and Steve talk to Scott Adams, creator of Dilbert and author of Loserthink. Steve reviews some of Scott's predictions, including of Trump’s 2016 victory. Scott (who once semi-humorously described himself as “left of Bernie”) describes what he describes as Trump's unique "skill stack". Scott highlights Trump's grasp of the role of psychology in economics, and maintains that honesty requires admitting that we do not know whether many of Trump’s policies are good or bad. Scott explains why he thinks it is mistaken to assume leaders are irrational.

Steve and Corey talk to James Oakes, Distinguished Professor of History and Graduate School Humanities Professor at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, about “The 1619 Project” developed by The New York Times Magazine. The project argues that slavery was the defining event of US history. Jim argues that slavery was actually the least exceptional feature of the US and that what makes the US exceptional is that it is where abolition first begins. Steve wonders about the views of Thomas Jefferson who wrote that “all men are created equal” but still held slaves. Jim maintains many founders were hypocrites, but Jefferson believed what he wrote.Other topics: Northern power, Industrialization, Capitalism, Lincoln, Inequality, Cotton, Labor, Civil War, Racism/Antiracism, Black Ownership.Resources Transcript James Oakes (Bio) Oakes and Colleagues Letter to the NYT and the Editor's Response (NYT) The Fight Over the 1619 Project Is Not About the Facts (The Atlantic) The World Socialist Web Site interview with James Oakes Benjamin Lay, the first revolutionary abolitionist (Smithsonian Mag) Oakes, J. (2016). Capitalism and Slavery and the Civil War. International Labor and Working-Class History Wright, G. (2020), Slavery and Anglo‐American capitalism revisited . The Economic History Review John J. Clegg, “Capitalism and Slavery,” Critical Historical Studies 2 Olmstead, Alan L. & Rhode, Paul W., 2018. “Cotton, slavery, and the new history of capitalism,” Explorations in Economic History For those interested in exploring Jefferson's and Lincoln's views further Professor Oakes recommends the following books: John C. Miller, The Wolf by the Ears: Thomas Jefferson and Slavery Graham A. Peck, Making an Antislavery Nation: Lincoln, Douglas, and the Battle over Freedom

Steve and Corey talk to James Oakes, Distinguished Professor of History and Graduate School Humanities Professor at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, about "The 1619 Project" developed by The New York Times Magazine. The project argues that slavery was the defining event of US history. Jim argues that slavery was actually the least exceptional feature of the US and that what makes the US exceptional is that it is where abolition first begins. Steve wonders about the views of Thomas Jefferson who wrote that “all men are created equal” but still held slaves. Jim maintains many founders were hypocrites, but Jefferson believed what he wrote.

Steve and Corey talk with Robert Atkinson, President of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation about his philosophy of National Developmentalism. They discuss the history of industrial policy and mercantilism in the US and China. Why did the US lose 1/3 of its manufacturing jobs in the 2000s? How much was due to automation and how much to Chinese competition? Atkinson discusses US R&D and recommends policies that will help the US compete with China.Other topics: Forced technology transfer, IP theft, semiconductors and Micron technologies (DRAM), why the WTO cannot handle misbehavior by China.Resources Transcript Robert Atkinson (Bio) Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) Big is Beautiful: Debunking the Mythology of Small Business (MIT Press, 2018) Innovation Economics: The Race for Global Advantage (Yale, 2012)

Steve and Corey talk with Robert Atkinson, President of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation about his philosophy of National Developmentalism. They discuss the history of industrial policy and mercantilism in the US and China. Why did the US lose 1/3 of its manufacturing jobs in the 2000s? How much was due to automation and how much to Chinese competition? Atkinson discusses US R&D and recommends policies that will help the US compete with China.

Steve and Corey talk with theoretical physicist Raman Sundrum. They discuss the last 30 years in fundamental physics, and look toward the next. Raman argues that Physics is a marketplace of ideas. While many theories did not stand the test of time, they represented avenues that needed to be explored. Corey expresses skepticism about the possibility of answering questions such as why the laws of physics have the form they do. Raman and Steve argue that attempts to answer such questions have led to great advances. Topics: models and experiments, Naturalness, the anthropic principle, dark matter and energy, and imagination.Resources Transcript Raman Sundrum (Faculty Bio) Sabine Hossenfelder on the Crisis in Particle Physics and Against the Next Big Collider – #8

Steve and Corey talk with theoretical physicist Raman Sundrum. They discuss the last 30 years in fundamental physics, and look toward the next. Raman argues that Physics is a marketplace of ideas. While many theories did not stand the test of time, they represented avenues that needed to be explored. Corey expresses skepticism about the possibility of answering questions such as why the laws of physics have the form they do. Raman and Steve argue that attempts to answer such questions have led to great advances. Topics: models and experiments, Naturalness, the anthropic principle, dark matter and energy, and imagination.

Steve and Corey talk with theoretical physicist turned hedge fund investor Vineer Bhansali. Bhansali describes his transition from physics to finance, his firm LongTail Alpha, and his recent outsize returns from the coronavirus financial crisis. Also discussed: derivatives pricing, random walks, helicopter money, and Modern Monetary Theory.Resources Transcript LongTail Alpha LongTail Alpha's OneTail Hedgehog Fund II had 929% Return (Bloomberg) A New Anomaly Matching Condition? (1993)

Steve and Corey talk with theoretical physicist turned hedge fund investor Vineer Bhansali. Bhansali describes his transition from physics to finance, his firm LongTail Alpha, and his recent outsize returns from the coronavirus financial crisis. Also discussed: derivatives pricing, random walks, helicopter money, and Modern Monetary Theory.

Steve talks with Skype founder and global tech investor Jaan Tallinn. Will the coronavirus pandemic lead to better planning for future global risks? Jaan gives his list of top existential risks and describes his efforts to call attention to AI risk. They discuss AGI, the Simulation Question, the Fermi Paradox and how these are all connected. Do we live in a simulation of a quantum multiverse?Rationality Jaan X-Risk Links LessWrong Slate Star Codex Metaculus Additional Resources Transcript Fermi Paradox — Where Are All The Aliens? Is Hilbert space discrete?

Steve talks with Skype founder and global tech investor Jaan Tallinn. Will the coronavirus pandemic lead to better planning for future global risks? Jaan gives his list of top existential risks and describes his efforts to call attention to AI risk. They discuss AGI, the Simulation Question, the Fermi Paradox and how these are all connected. Do we live in a simulation of a quantum multiverse?

Steve and Corey talk to legendary NCAA and Olympic wrestler and coach Dan Gable. Gable describes the final match of his collegiate career, an NCAA championship upset which spoiled his undefeated high school and college record. The Coach explains how the loss led him to take a more scientific approach to training and was critical for his later success. They discuss the tragic murder of Gable's sister, and the steps 15-year old Gable took try to save his parents' marriage. Gable describes his eye for talent and philosophy of developing athletes. Steve gets Gable's reaction to ultimate fighting and jiujitsu.Resources Transcript Dan Gable vs Larry Owings – 1970 NCAA Title Match (video) The Champion (1970 documentary on Gable's senior NCAA season)

Steve and Corey talk to legendary NCAA and Olympic wrestler and coach Dan Gable. Gable describes the final match of his collegiate career, an NCAA championship upset which spoiled his undefeated high school and college record. The Coach explains how the loss led him to take a more scientific approach to training and was critical for his later success. They discuss the tragic murder of Gable's sister, and the steps 15-year old Gable took try to save his parents’ marriage. Gable describes his eye for talent and philosophy of developing athletes. Steve gets Gable's reaction to ultimate fighting and jiujitsu.

Steve and Corey talk to Klaus Lackner, director of the Center for Negative Carbon Emissions (CNCE) at Arizona State University and the first person to suggest removing CO2 from air to address climate change. Steve asks whether Klaus' research was motivated by a tail risk of catastrophic outcomes due to CO2 build up. Klaus explains that he sees atmospheric CO2 as a waste management problem. Calculations show that removing human-produced carbon is energetically and economically viable. Klaus describes his invention, a “mechanical tree”, that passively collects CO2 from the air, allowing it to be stored or converted to fuel.Resources Transcript Klaus Lackner (Faculty Bio) Center for Negative Carbon Emissions at ASU

Steve and Corey talk to Klaus Lackner, director of the Center for Negative Carbon Emissions (CNCE) at Arizona State University and the first person to suggest removing CO2 from air to address climate change. Steve asks whether Klaus’ research was motivated by a tail risk of catastrophic outcomes due to CO2 build up. Klaus explains that he sees atmospheric CO2 as a waste management problem. Calculations show that removing human-produced carbon is energetically and economically viable. Klaus describes his invention, a “mechanical tree”, that passively collects CO2 from the air, allowing it to be stored or converted to fuel.

Steve and Corey talk to Kieren James-Lubin and Victor Wong of the blockchain technology startup, BlockApps. They begin with a discussion of the COVID-19 epidemic (~25m): lockdown, predictions of ICU overload, and helicopter money. Will personal contact tracking become the new normal? Transitioning to blockchain, a technology many view as viable even in times of widespread societal disruption, they give a basic explanation of the underlying cryptographic and consensus algorithms. Kieren and Victor explain how BlockApps was founded, its business model, and history as a startup. They conclude with a comparison of startup ecosystems in China, Silicon Valley, and NYC.Resources Transcript Kieren James-Lubin Victor Wong

Steve and Corey talk to Kieren James-Lubin and Victor Wong of the blockchain technology startup, BlockApps. They begin with a discussion of the COVID-19 epidemic (~25m): lockdown, predictions of ICU overload, and helicopter money. Will personal contact tracking become the new normal? Transitioning to blockchain, a technology many view as viable even in times of widespread societal disruption, they give a basic explanation of the underlying cryptographic and consensus algorithms. Kieren and Victor explain how BlockApps was founded, its business model, and history as a startup. They conclude with a comparison of startup ecosystems in China, Silicon Valley, and NYC.

Corey and Steve talk to Claude Steele of Stanford about his article “Why Campuses are So Tense?”. The essay explores stereotype threats across racial lines. Colorblindness is a standard of fairness, but what are the costs of ignoring our differences? Claude describes his research on minority underperformance and why single sex colleges may contribute to women's success. Corey describes why he believes his daughter's experience is a counterexample to the findings of the experiments that led the Supreme Court to outlaw segregation. The three discuss parenting in a diverse world and how ethnic integration differs between Europe and the US.Resources Transcript Claude Steele Why Campuses are So Tense? Whistling Vivaldi: And Other Clues to How Stereotypes Affect Us In Struggle: SNCC and the Black Awakening of the 1960s

Corey and Steve talk to Claude Steele of Stanford about his article “Why Campuses are So Tense”. The essay explores stereotype threats across racial lines. Colorblindness is a standard of fairness, but what are the costs of ignoring our differences? Claude describes his research on minority underperformance and why single sex colleges may contribute to women’s success. Corey describes why he believes his daughter's experience is a counterexample to the findings of the experiments that led the Supreme Court to outlaw segregation. The three discuss parenting in a diverse world and how ethnic integration differs between Europe and the US.

Corey and Steve talk with MSU Neuroscientist A.J. Robison about why females may be more likely to suffer from depression than males. A.J. reviews past findings that low testosterone and having a smaller hippocampus may predict depression risk. He explains how a serendipitous observation opened up his current line of research and describes tools he uses to study neural circuits. Steve asks about the politics of studying sex differences and tells of a start up using CRISPR to attack heart disease. The three end with a discussion of the psychological effects of ketamine, testosterone and deep brain stimulation.Topics 01:18 – Link between antidepressants, neurogenesis and reducing risk of depression 13:54 – Nature of Mouse models 23:19 – How you tell whether a mouse exhibits depressive symptoms 32:36 – Liz Williams' serendipitous finding and the issue of biological sex 45:47 – A.J.'s research plans for circuit specific gene editing in the mouse brain and a start up's plan to use it to tackle human cardiovascular disease 59:07 – Psychological and Neurological Effects of Ketamine. Testosterone and Deep Brain Stimulation Resources Transcript Robison Lab at MSU @RobisonLabMSU Papers Androgen-dependent excitability of mouse ventral hippocampal afferents to nucleus accumbens underlies sex-specific susceptibility to stress. Neurogenesis and The Effect of Antidepressants Integrating Interleukin-6 into depression diagnosis and treatment Sub-chronic variable stress induces sex-specific effects on glutamatergic synapses in the nucleus accumbens. Prefrontal cortical circuit for depression- and anxiety-related behaviors mediated by cholecystokinin: role of ΔFosB. Emerging role of viral vectors for circuit-specific gene interrogation and manipulation in rodent brain.

Corey and Steve talk with MSU Neuroscientist A.J. Robison about why females may be more likely to suffer from depression than males. A.J. reviews past findings that low testosterone and having a smaller hippocampus may predict depression risk. He explains how a serendipitous observation opened up his current line of research and describes tools he uses to study neural circuits. Steve asks about the politics of studying sex differences and tells of a start up using CRISPR to attack heart disease. The three end with a discussion of the psychological effects of ketamine, testosterone and deep brain stimulation.

Kaja Perina is the Editor in Chief of Psychology Today. Kaja, Steve, and Corey discuss so-called Dark Triad personality traits: Narcissism, Machiavellianism, and Psychopathy. Do these traits manifest more often in super successful people? What is the difference between Sociopathy and Psychopathy? Are CEOs often “warm sociopaths”? Can too much empathy be a liability? Corey laments Sociopathy in academic Philosophy. Kaja explains the operation of Psychology Today. Steve reveals his Hypomania diagnoses.Topics 2:33 – Psychopathology and the Dark Triad 11:34 – Do these traits manifest more often in super successful people? 17:52 – Can too much empathy be a liability? 35:16 – Corey laments Sociopathy in academic Philosophy 50:32 – Kaja explains the operation of Psychology Today 1:01:06 – Steve reveals his Hypomania diagnoses Resources Transcript Kaja Perina (Psychology Today)

Kaja Perina is the Editor in Chief of Psychology Today. Kaja, Steve, and Corey discuss so-called Dark Triad personality traits: Narcissism, Machiavellianism, and Psychopathy. Do these traits manifest more often in super successful people? What is the difference between Sociopathy and Psychopathy? Are CEOs often "warm sociopaths"? Can too much empathy be a liability? Corey laments Sociopathy in academic Philosophy. Kaja explains the operation of Psychology Today. Steve reveals his Hypomania diagnoses.

Steve and Corey talk to Adam Dynes of Brigham Young University about whether voting has an effect on policy outcomes. Adam's work finds that control of state legislatures or governorships does not have an observable effect on macroscopic variables such as crime rates, the economy, etc. Possible explanations: parties push essentially the same policies, politicians don't keep promises, monied interest control everything. Are voting decisions just noisy mood affiliation? Perhaps time is better spent obsessing about sports teams, which at least generates pleasure.Topics 1:22 – What is retrospective voting? 5:43 – Research findings on retrospective voting 14:02 – Uniparty/Monied interests? 17:23 – Martin Gilens' research 23:10 – Are people just voting based on noise or mood affiliation? 27:13 – Bryan Caplan – Myth of the Rational Voter 34:35 – Is time better spent obsessing about sports teams, which at least generates pleasure? 39:42 – After the fall of Athens, was democracy commonly referred to as irrational mob rule? 48:22 – Does this research translate to the national level? 52:19 – Super Nerdy Stuff: Statistical Analysis, Reproducibility & Null Results 56:40 – Reactions to the results Resources Transcript Adam Dynes (Personal Website) Adam Dynes (Faculty Profile) Noisy Retrospection: The Effect of Party Control on Policy Outcomes

Steve and Corey talk to Adam Dynes of Brigham Young University about whether voting has an effect on policy outcomes. Adam’s work finds that control of state legislatures or governorships does not have an observable effect on macroscopic variables such as crime rates, the economy, etc. Possible explanations: parties push essentially the same policies, politicians don't keep promises, monied interest control everything. Are voting decisions just noisy mood affiliation? Perhaps time is better spent obsessing about sports teams, which at least generates pleasure.

Yang Wang is Dean of Science at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Wang received his BS degree in mathematics from University of Science and Technology of China in 1983, and his PhD degree from Harvard University in 1990 under the supervision of Fields medalist David Mumford. He served as Chair of the Mathematics department at Michigan State University before joining HKUST.Topics 2:50 – US-China Relations: Has China advanced through the development of human capital or the theft of intellectual property? 16:23 – Academic Culture in China 33:00 – Hong Kong Protests: Economic inequality, housing prices, and outside actors. 1:04:09 – Coronavirus COVID-19: Has the Coronavirus established a new mode of online education in Hong Kong? Yang makes a forecast about the epidemic's trajectory. Resources Transcript Yang Wang, Dean of Science at HKUST Yang Wang (Faculty Profile)

Yang Wang is Dean of Science at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Wang received his BS degree in mathematics from University of Science and Technology of China in 1983, and his PhD degree from Harvard University in 1990 under the supervision of Fields medalist David Mumford. He served as Chair of the Mathematics department at Michigan State University before joining HKUST.

Steve and Corey talk to Elizabeth Kolbert, author of the Sixth Extinction, about the current state of the climate debate. All three are pessimistic about the possibility that emissions will be substantively reduced in the near term, and they discuss technologies for removing carbon from the atmosphere. They explore uncertainty in the models regarding temperatures rise and precipitation, and contemplate a billion people are on the move in response to climate change and population increase. They ask: what is more of a threat to humanity in the coming century, runaway AI or runaway climate change?Resources Transcript Elizabeth Kolbert (The New Yorker) Field Notes from a Catastrophe: Man, Nature, and Climate Change The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural History New York City Sea Wall Miami Mitigation Jobs and AI Carbon Capture

Steve and Corey talk to Elizabeth Kolbert, author of the Sixth Extinction, about the current state of the climate debate. All three are pessimistic about the possibility that emissions will be substantively reduced in the near term, and they discuss technologies for removing carbon from the atmosphere. They explore uncertainty in the models regarding temperatures rise and precipitation, and contemplate a billion people are on the move in response to climate change and population increase. They ask: what is more of a threat to humanity in the coming century, runaway AI or runaway climate change?

Corey and Steve talk to Meghan Daum about her new book “The Problem With Everything: My Journey Through The New Culture Wars”. Meghan describes how she became aware of the “Red Pill” through what she calls “free speech YouTube” videos. The three ask whether their feeling of alienation from Gen-Z wokeness is just a sign of getting old or reflects principles of free speech and open debate. Megan argues that Gen-Z's focus on fairness leads to difficult compromises. They discuss social interactions in the pre-internet, early-internet, and woke-internet eras.Resources Transcript Author Website Meghan Daum on Medium The Problem with Everything: My Journey Through the New Culture Wars

Corey and Steve talk to Meghan Daum about her new book "The Problem With Everything: My Journey Through The New Culture Wars". Meghan describes how she became aware of the "Red Pill" through what she calls "free speech YouTube" videos. The three ask whether their feeling of alienation from Gen-Z wokeness is just a sign of getting old or reflects principles of free speech and open debate. Megan argues that Gen-Z's focus on fairness leads to difficult compromises. They discuss social interactions in the pre-internet, early-internet, and woke-internet eras.

Steve and Corey talk with Steven Broglio, Director of the Michigan Concussion Center, about concussion risk, prevention and treatment. Broglio describes how the NCAA emerged from the deaths that almost led Theodore Roosevelt to outlaw college football. He also explains recent findings on CTE, why females may be at greater concussion risk, and why sleep is critical to avoiding long-term brain injury. They discuss how new rules probably make football safer and debate why New England is so down on kids playing football. Steve wonders whether skills are in decline now that some schools have eliminated “contact” in practices.Resources Transcript Steven Broglio (Faculty Profile) Michigan Concussion Center NeuroTrauma Research Laboratory NCAA-DoD Grand Alliance: Concussion Assessment, Research, and Education (CARE)