Podcasts about bloomberg commodity index

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DoubleLine's Jeff Mayberry and Eric Dhall review the market week (1:00) ended Feb. 9, 2024, including a new all-time high carrying the S&P 500 to close above 5000 for the first time, yields up across the investment grade segments of the fixed income universe and a higher week for the Bloomberg Commodity Index, although accompanied by a decline in industrial metals. Macro news for the week (4:39) includes a strong ISM Services report but in general tighter financial conditions indicated in the Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey of Bank Lending Practices. For their Topic of the Week (11:21), Jeff and Eric discuss the U.S. Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement in the context of an explosion of the national debt to $34.2 trillion – a pace of debt growth that on Feb. 7 drew a warning from the Congressional Budget Office. Falling Treasury purchases by foreign governments, Jeff Maberry notes, means yield-sensitive investors such as insurers account for a larger share of Uncle Sam's creditors. Their bond vigilantism means more upward pressure on interest rates. Looking ahead to the week of Feb. 12-16, Jeff and Eric single out (21:27) above all the January print of consumer price index, due Tuesday Feb. 13. They will also be on the lookout for retail sales, import prices and jobless claims (Thursday) and housing starts and the January producer price index (Friday).

Tom welcomes back Peter Goodburn from Elliot Wave International to the show. Peter explains that a super cycle refers to a long-term pattern in commodity prices, which can last for decades. Goodburn presents a quarterly chart of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, showing a typical Elliott wave, five-wave pattern that progressed from the Great Depression lows in 1933 to the late 2000s. Each wave represents a distinct phase of the cycle, with wave one lasting until the 1960s, wave two extending into the late 1970s and early 1980s, wave three leading to gold's initial all-time high, and wave four ending in the late 1990s. Wave five reached its peak just before the financial crisis in 2008. He cautions against using the term "commodity super cycle" for more recent periods and explains that the current phase is actually a counter-trend phase within a larger long-term pattern. Goodburn predicts significant upside in commodities, particularly in oil and copper, over the next two to three years. He advises investors to have a methodology, such as Elliott Wave, to determine market lows and to approach investing with a cautious mindset. Peter also covers the relationship between commodity prices, inflation, and interest rates. He believes that there will be bouts of inflation in the coming years, leading to a rise in commodity prices. He predicts that interest rates will rise again, contributing to another surge in inflation. However, he cautions that a sudden surge in interest rates could have negative consequences for commodities and trigger a significant drop in stock markets. Lastly, Peter touches on the relationship between the dollar and precious metals. Goodburn expects the dollar to weaken this year and recommends investing in precious metals as a hedge against de-dollarization. He provides some targets for gold and feels that silver and platinum will also outperform. Gold miners may offer strong upside potential, but Peter also recommends physical precious metals as a means to mitigate counterparty risk. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:48 - Commodity Cycle Theory15:45 - Equities & Risks20:20 - Inputs & Inflation27:06 - Fed Control Vs. Markets31:44 - A Global Phenomena36:23 - Dollar Short-Term Outlook42:39 - Elections & Confidence45:18 - Precious Metals & Dollar50:30 - Timing & The Metals55:50 - Slowdowns & Base Metals1:01:25 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Peter explains the concept of commodity super cycles and predicts significant upside in commodities, particularly in oil and copper, over the next few years. Goodburn believes that bouts of inflation and a rise in commodity prices will occur, fueled by rising interest rates. Goodburn expects the dollar to weaken this year, recommending investment in precious metals as a hedge. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/ElliottWave_WTIWebsite: https://wavetrack.com Peter Goodburn is the founding partner of WaveTrack International. His trading experience spans back to the late 1970s working then in the commodities business for exchange members and their clients. In those earlier years of his career, he created the first OTC (over-the-counter) copper option product based upon the Comex (New York) contract around the mid-eighties, and in the same period, devised Opval, an option-evaluation software program that is currently used in many of the major market-making institutions of today. His fascination with price activity and how that related to the news flow within the markets captured his imagination early on. Peter's first annual diary of 1978 records his notes and remarks on how the interaction and relationship of fundamental news and price movement often contradicted themselves. Some years later, this was to ignite his interest in causal theory and naturally, the Elliott Wave Principle. He was first introduced to the Elliott Wave Principle in the mid-eighties listening to daily updates of financial commentary by Bob ...

Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau start review a somewhat volatile and negative 2024 debut for bonds (0:47) and fixed income (2:13) with commodities (3:55) treading water with a slight rise of 10 basis points on the Bloomberg Commodity Index for the abbreviated week ended Jan. 5. For the week's macro news (5:35), Jeff reviewed readings on the ISM manufacturing and services indexes, labor market reports and the release of the Dec. 13, 2023, meeting minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee. For the Topic of the Week (10:31), Jeff and Sam share their thoughts on the Treasury basis trade and recent blips in the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR). Barring a change of pace in balance sheet reduction by the Federal Reserve, Jeff expects more blips in SOFR rates as quantitative tightening continues, further reducing excess reserves in the banking system. On their radar for macro prints Jan. 8-12 (25:08) are releases of the consumer and producer price indexes for December and jobless claims.

Row crops were quietly mixed on Wednesday with wheat finding some pressure. Cattle and hogs were quietly mixed as well on the day. We discuss the relationship between treasury yields, the Bloomberg Commodity Index and more with Mike Zuzolo from Global Commodity Analytics on today's program. Learn more online at https://www.globalcommresearch.com. Today's program is brought to you in part by Growmark/FS; learn more at https://www.fssystem.com.

Brent crude is marching on as Saudi Arabia keeps the oil market tight raising the risks of stagflation in both Europe and the US. Will the current oil price curtail demand and will China begin tapping into its reserves? Copper has recently been supported by China's efforts to strengthen the yuan. We also talk about how copper is still structurally attractive giving the ongoing electrification, EV adoption and China stimulus. Finally, we go through the key movers in the Bloomberg Commodity Index, with Peter Garnry and Oskar Bernhardtsen. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo

Fra i settori da inizio anno fra i più deludenti spicca quello delle commodity e dei titoli dell'energia che negli scorsi anni erano stati fra i migliori.Da inizio anno un indice delle materie prime molto seguito come il Bloomberg Commodity Index è in discesa di circa il 10% (nel 2022 era salito del 20,75 e nel 2021 quasi del 40%) e l'energia (una delle componenti con maggior peso nel paniere ovvero il 30%) vede il petrolio WTI in discesa di circa l'11% (in euro) da inizio anno, mentre il Natural Gas addirittura del -56% se si guarda l'andamento dell'ETF WisdomTree Natural Gas quotato a Piazza Affari. Livelli che non si erano mai toccati e sta facendo strage di molti piccoli risparmiatori o trader che avevano puntato su questa commodity che dopo l'invasione di Putin in Ucraina aveva visto fino ad agosto 2022 triplicare quasi le quotazioni per poi iniziare un'inversione di marcia clamorosa.Ci sono da inizio anno anche naturalmente materie prime che salgono (e molto) come lo zucchero (+43%) da inizio 2023 che ha raggiunto livelli che non si vedevano da un decennio dopo che la siccità ha fatto appassire i raccolti di alcuni dei maggiori produttori mondiali (Brasile e India dominano il mercato). Allo stesso tempo, la domanda rimane forte, poiché lo zucchero raffinato è un ingrediente importante per prodotti da forno, caramelle e bevande analcoliche, mentre la canna da zucchero viene anche utilizzata per produrre etanolo. Seppure il prezzo della zolletta sale molto “non basta un poco di zucchero”, come cantava Mary Poppins, perché l'indice delle commodity vada su visto che il suo peso sul paniere è inferiore al 3%.Nell'analisi che abbiamo pubblicato abbiamo provato a spiegare le variabili in gioco e come possono entrare alcune commodity (in modo diretto o indiretto) nei nostri portafogli consigliati. https://soldiexpert.com/moneyreport/investire-sulle-materie-prime/15611/?smclient=8ab7d0db-3b0d-4f97-8182-76a2fabfaf0f&smconv=618bce49-27a3-4193-8110-2123d6a7dcfc&smlid=11&utm_source=salesmanago&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MSG_MANUALE_2305_08_Lettera16Maggio

Börsenexperte Alfred Maydorn und Moderator Marco Uome starten die neue Folge Maydorns Meinung mit einem Blick auf den Bloomberg Commodity Index und den Erzeugerpreisindex und erklären, warum bullische Zeiten bevorstehen könnten. Im Anschluss betrachten Sie Einzelwerte wie Tesla und Apple. Außerdem im Fokus: First Solar, SolarEdge, SMA, Encavis, Livent, Li-FT Power, Freyr, Varta Hinweis: Die im Podcast besprochenen Aktien und Fonds stellen keine spezifischen Kauf- oder Anlageempfehlungen dar. Die Moderatoren oder der Verlag haften nicht für etwaige Verluste, die aufgrund der Umsetzung der Gedanken oder Ideen entstehen.

In this week's episode, Tracy speaks with David Derwin for our “Grain Marketing in Our Current Environment: March/April 2023 Update.” In this conversation: David provides our audience with a full market outlook taking a look at past/present/future trending prices for a variety of commodities, including grain price index (wheat, corn, soybeans, oats), Bloomberg Commodity Index, Crude Oil Futures, Fertilizer & Grain spreads, Natural Gas Futures, Canola Futures, European Rapeseed, Malaysian Palm Oil, New Crop Corn Futures and so much more. David and Tracy chat about how this all relates to and impacts grain marketing decisions. Tracy asks David what farmers can proactively do about market outlook trends and concerns. David shares some of the marketing strategies that he is currently working on with farmers. If you are a grain farmer concerned about the markets, you will not want to miss this valuable episode. ............................... Show Sponsor Thank you to our Show sponsor: Farm Credit Canada (FCC) FCC Knowledge: Talking Farm and Food Agriculture is not only a way of life, it's a business. Talking Farm and Food is a monthly podcast that highlights the stories and experiences of farm business entrepreneurs and the lessons they've learned along the way. You'll also hear from industry experts about the farm management topics you care about. Learn more here. ...............................

DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau review 2022 in their year-end podcast. They start with stocks (1:55) and then turn to fixed income (5:42), noting the rare coincidence of bear markets in both asset classes produced the second worst year on record (9:16) for 60-40 stock-bond portfolios. Of the major asset classes, commodities (11:54) was the rare exception to the red ink, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index up 38% YTD in the first half of the year in part on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and before settling back to a calendar-year gain of 16%. Jeff and Sam also cover the week's macro news (18:20) and preview a busy if abbreviated week of macro data releases (21:22) coming Jan. 3-6 in the New Year.

Dow Jones up 829 points (2.59%) closing pretty much on its highs. NASDAQ up 2.87% after a 7.6% bounce in Apple and a 4% recovery in Microsoft after results this week. Intel also up 10.7% and Nvidia was up 5.0%. S&P 500 up 2.46%. Caterpillar continued its rally up 3.4% after results last week. It was up 17.5% for the week. Exxon Mobil was up 2.9% on results with Chevron up 1.2%.The Dow Jones was up a solid 5.72% last week with the NASDAQ up 2.24% and the S&P 500 up 3.95% which was a remarkably good performance considering the drop in Tech stocks on the back of a week of poor results reactions.The SPI Futures are up 92 points which makes up for the 59 point drop on the ASX 200 on Friday. The Friday performance was driven by a 3.56% drop in the resources sector offset by a 0.7% rise in the bank sector.Bond yields in the US rose on Friday with the 10 year bond yield up 7bp and the two year bond yield up 9bp, but there was still a substantial drop in bond yields on the week.In commodities, the oil price was down 1.23% and 1.44% but was up 3.35% on the week. BHP and RIO were down 4.75% and 3.5% in the US. The gold price was down 1.27% ($21) and down $11 for the week. Most of the metal prices were lower except for Lead which rallied 8% one point after being included in the Bloomberg Commodity Index. For the week, the Dalian iron ore price was down 8.2%, and the coal price down 6.8%. Lithium managed a 3.7% rise. Metal prices didn't see much action on the week. Zinc was down 4.4%, and copper down 1.1%.Catch up on all the latest with Henry Jennings on today's Pre-Market Podcast.Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and research and become a better investor.

After surveying the week's macro news and carnage in equity, fixed income and commodity markets, host and Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and guest and Quantitative Analyst Eric Dhall unpack (13:48) the market-jarring details of the Federal Reserve's latest dot plot and Chair Powell's Sept. 21 news conference. The new dot plot showed a 4.37% median of Fed policymakers' projections for the federal funds target rate by the end of 2022, a “huge shift” Eric Dhall notes from the 3.4% projection in the previous dot plot that forced repricings across the financial markets. The podcast episode begins with a review of the Sept. 19-23 of U.S. stocks (1:36), down 4.6% on the S&P 500 with the energy sector worst-off with a loss of 9%. All major sectors of the fixed income markets (3:33) sold off, with the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index down 1.6% and outside the Agg, high yield down 2.8% and emerging markets down 2.7%. Commodities were no place to hide (4:37). The Bloomberg Commodity Index dropped 3.8%, led by the energy complex with West Texas Intermediate crude oil falling 7% to $79.12 per barrel. Looking ahead to macro news for Sept. 26-30 (25:58), Jeff Mayberry and Eric Dhall are especially on lookout for Friday's release of the Fed's preferred inflation indicator: the Personal Consumption Expenditure indicator and its Core PCE component.

Bringing back their Topic of the Week, Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau review a raft of leading and coincident recession indicators (14:49), weighing their historical track records for predictive accuracy and noting what those gauges are saying now. The podcast hosts start with a survey (2:32) of the broad rally in U.S. equities for the week of Sept. 6-9, led by consumer discretionary and materials. Turning to fixed income (5:14), they note higher yields across the U.S. Treasury curve. That move helped push the investment-grade Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index to a negative weekly return of 60 basis points (bps) while riskier credits enjoyed positive returns of 2% for high yield corporate bonds, 1¼% for emerging markets debt and 1% for bank loans. The commodity market (7:05) put in a flattish negative 40 bps as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index. In terms of the Sept. 6-9 week's macro news (9:30), Jeff and Sam find most notable comments by Federal Reserve officials (10:46) before the Sept. 10 start of the blackout on Fedspeak ahead of the Sept. 21 rate-setting meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Jeff Mayberry ventures his interpretation of two comments by Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard: that the Fed will tighten “as much as it takes” to reign in inflation and that gaps between policy actions and economic impacts pose a risk of overtightening. Interpretation: a 75 bp hike in the Federal Funds rate is coming Sept. 21, but perhaps Fed officials are already thinking about moderating hikes further out. The Federal Funds rate futures market, Samuel Lau observes, is pricing that key rate at 4% by the end of 2022.

This year has seen a sharp rally in the oil and gas markets, leading to high prices and a delicate balancing act for global supply and demand. Important note regarding economic sanctions. This research references country/ies which are generally the subject of selective sanctions programs administered or enforced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”), the European Union and/or by other countries and multi-national bodies. Users of this report are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities in relation to any sanctioned country/ies are carried out in compliance with applicable sanctions.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Markets. I'm Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley's Global Commodity Strategist and the Head of the European Energy Research Team. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be giving you an update on global oil and the European gas market. It's Thursday, the 25th of August, at 4 p.m. in London. As the world emerged from COVID, commodities have rallied strongly. Between mid 2020 and mid 2022, the Bloomberg Commodity Index more than doubled, outperforming equities significantly and fulfilling its traditional role as an inflation hedge.However, this rally largely ran out of steam in June, even for oil. For nearly two years, the oil market was significantly undersupplied. For a while, storage can help meet the deficit, but at some point, supply and demand simply need to come into balance. If that can't happen via the supply side quick enough, it must happen via the demand side, and so the oil markets effectively searched for the demand destruction price.The price level where that happens can be hard to estimate, but in June we clearly got there. For a brief period, gasoline reached $180 per barrel and diesel even reached $190 a barrel. Those prices are difficult for the global economy to absorb, especially if you take into account that the dollar has been strengthening at the same time. With the world's central banks hiking interest rates in an effort to slow down the economy as well, oil demand has started to soften and prices have given up some of their recent strength.Now these trends can take some time to play out, possibly even several quarters. As long as fears of a recession prevail, oil prices are likely to stay rangebound. However, after recession comes recovery. There is still little margin of safety in the system, so when demand starts to improve again, there is every chance the strong cycle from last year repeats itself. This time next year we may need to ask the question, 'What is the demand destruction price?' once again.Now, one commodity that has defied all gravity is European natural gas. Over much of the last decade, Europe was accustomed to a typical natural gas price of somewhere between sort of $6 to $7 per million British thermal units. Recently, it reached the eye-watering level of $85 per MMBtu. On an energy equivalent basis, that would be similar to oil trading at nearly $500 per barrel.Now, the reason for this is, of course, the sharp reduction in supply from Russia. As the war in Ukraine has unfolded, Russia has steadily supplied less and less natural gas to Europe. Now total volumes have already fallen by around about 75%. Furthermore, Gazprom announced that flows through the critical Nord Stream 1 pipeline would temporarily stop completely later this month for maintenance to one of its turbines. In principle, this will only last three days, but the market is clearly starting to fear that this is a harbinger of a much longer lasting shutdown.These exceptional prices are already leading to large declines in demand. During COVID, industrial gas consumption in Europe fell only 2 or 3%. Last month, industrial gas use was already down 19% year-on-year. With these demand declines, Europe can probably manage with the reduced supply, but to keep demand lower for longer gas prices need to be higher for longer. The gas market has clearly noticed. Even gas for delivery by end 2024 is now trading at close to $50 per MMBtu, 10x the equivalent price in the United States.The full implications of all of this for the European economy going forward are yet to become clear, but we'll be sure to keep listeners up to date on the latest developments.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague, or leave us a review on Apple Podcasts. It helps more people find the show.

Before diving into the market week of Aug. 15-19, DoubleLine's Samuel Lau and Jeff Mayberry pause in TV Land to bid farewell to “Better Call Saul” and welcome the return of the Targaryens in “House of the Dragon.” Broad indexes were down on the week (2:20), with consumer staples providing some green in the S&P 500 Index, and natural gas (6:49) continuing to bring heat to the Bloomberg Commodity Index despite its historic volatility. Sam and Jeff then discuss whether this week's performance represents a response to a change to the dovish narrative that initially followed the last FOMC meeting (9:49). Over in Macro Land (10:47), they review retail sales numbers, Fed meeting minutes, jobless numbers and LEI data. Heading into the Fed's meeting next week in Jackson Hole, Sam and Jeff talk about recent comments from Fed officials on future rate hikes and how statements made by Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell at last year's meeting panned out (14:20). Next week will bring PMI numbers, a second quarter GDP update, a PCE print and Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech (17:02).

With the June 30 close of 1H2022, Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau start (2:21) by looking at the month, quarterly and first-half-of-2022 returns for the stock market. These left the S&P 500 down just under 20% for the first six months of the year. The best-performing sector for that period was Energy, up 31.8%; the worst performer, Consumer Discretionary, down 32½%. Investors learned the hard way that 60-40 stock bond portfolios offered no protection from the year's pain. Putting things into perspective, Samuel Lau notes that a proxy constructed by Deutsch Bank (8:15) shows that the 10-year U.S. Treasury in 2022 had its worst first half of the year since 1788. Touring the fixed income landscape (10:38), Jeff and Sam observe the Bloomberg U.S. Bond Aggregate, the widely followed proxy for the high-grade domestic bond market, lost 10.4% in 1H2022, led by a 14.4% loss in investment-grade corporate credit. The podcast discussed (12:40) an almost 11% pullback in June in commodities as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, although that benchmark holds a gain of 18% year-to-date. In their review of macro news for the week of June 27-July 1 (15:52), the podcast hosts sought to temper people's take on a hotter-than-expected 1.9% month-over-month gain in April by the S&P CoreLogic 20-City Home Price Index, bringing its YoY return to 21.2%. Jeff Mayberry points out that April excludes the subsequent run-up in mortgage rates. He cautions people to wait for the housing index's May print. A June “wobble” in the ISM Manufacturing series (17:55) caught Mayberry's eye. While still in expansionary territory, the ISM Manufacturing index came in at 53.0 versus expectations of 54½. Meanwhile, the new orders component of the index printed 49.2, the first time since the COVID-19 recession of 2020. The market week of July 5-9, although abbreviated, promises to be a charged with macro news (22:24). Reports due include May durable goods (final) on Tuesday; on Wednesday, ISM Services, JOLTS jobs, Federal Open Market Committee Meeting minutes; and Friday nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rates.

In this episode we celebrate George's generosity and answer emails from Jeff, Kyle, Richard, Jamie and MyContactInfo.  We discuss ulcer indexes and where to find them, leveraged ETFs and rebalancing, tag GDE again, have a lengthy frolic and detour into commodities funds and how they work, and rant a little more about the financial services industry.Links:The Father McKenna Center:  Home - Father McKenna CenterPortfolio Charts Drawdown Calculator with Ulcer Index:  DRAWDOWNS – Portfolio ChartsOptimal Rebalancing Article:  Optimal Rebalancing – Time Horizons Vs Tolerance Bands (kitces.com)Bloomberg Commodity Index:  Bloomberg Commodity Index - WikipediaDeutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index:  Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index - WikipediaCommodities Fund Article:  Investing in Commodity ETFs (investopedia.com)ETF Database -- Commodities Funds:  Commodities ETFs (etfdb.com)Risk Parity Chronicles re Assets for Inflation:  Best Asset Classes for Surviving Inflation: a test (riskparitychronicles.com)Support the show (https://www.riskparityradio.com/support)

Dan Russo, CMT®, and Drew Wells, CMT®, CIMA®, are back with more stock market technical analysis! We're bringing you six charts in six minutes.The clock is ticking, and we've got some big charts coming your way, including:· Bloomberg Commodity Index and S&P 500· S&P 500· S&P 500 – Capitulatory Breadth· QQQ / RSP· S&P 500 Low Volatility (SPLV) relative to S&P 500 (SPY)· U.S. Dollar IndexSo, who charted?Research by Potomac: https://potomacfund.com/research/This podcast is produced as a video series. Please visit our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/ConquerRiskPodcastLearn more about Potomac Fund Management: https://potomacfund.com/Read our blog: https://potomacfund.com/blogDisclosure: http://bit.ly/2l3OvaL See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

After reviewing macro news and markets for the week of March 7-11, Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau turn to the price explosion in nickel on the London Metal Exchange for their topic of the week (13:31). They analyze the short squeeze that produced two back-to-back days of 60% price gains in the industrial metal before the LME halted trading. They also criticize the LME's controversial decision break at least $4 billion in trades to the benefit of Xiang Guangda, the short-selling, short-squeezed Chinese nickel-and-steel tycoon who styles himself “Big Shot.” Stocks (2:16) fell broadly for the week ended March 11. The S&P 500 declined 2.9%, led by a nearly 6% decline in consumer staples as companies in that sector announced suspensions or cessations of business in Russia. Energy, the lone positive sector, gained more than 2%. Fixed income markets (4:03) were weak as well, including across the U.S. Treasury curve. Even commodities as tracked by the Bloomberg Commodity Index gave up half a point (6:59). “The underpinnings (for commodities) are still quite strong on the fundamentals,” Sam Lau says, but “there's going to a lot of chop given the potential disruptions around the war” in Ukraine. Some of biggest losers were wheat, down 19%; gasoil down almost 15%; and aluminum down 10%. These moves, however, are dwarfed by commodities gains in prior weeks, a fact, Jeff Mayberry warns, that promises higher levels of inflation (11:16). The Consumer Price Index came in at 7.9% YoY for February, but he notes that doesn't include the “commodity rocket ship that we've experienced over the past couple of weeks.”

2022.03.08 一週財經聚焦： 一， 三月3日，美國前國務卿Pompeo訪台，對台灣政府而言是件大事。豈料，Pompeo的專車前往總統府途中遇交通燈故障，之後在總統府的直播也臨時喊停。對比之下，鴻海創辦人郭台銘在去年四大公投後就預言，台灣2022年一定缺電，沒想到一語成讖。不止台灣，全球能源政策的問題已被攤在陽光下，這絕對是今年難以回避的大問題。 二， 三月4日，ASML台灣暨東南亞區人資部門運用精準數據分析推估今年半導體人才缺口約1.8萬人。同一天，蔡英文總統到高雄中山大學出席「國際金融研究學院」揭牌典禮，並表示台灣將培養更多國際資產管理人才，並擴大財富管理的業務規模，吸引更多國際機構和資金到台灣。 1， CNBC Oil rises to the highest since 2008, before paring gains 油價升至2008年以來的最高點，之後漲幅有所減少 2， Reuters Taiwan blames negligence for mass power outage 台灣將大規模停電歸咎於疏忽 3， WSJ Trillions in Assets May Be Left Stranded as Companies Address Climate Change 隨著企業應對氣候變化，數以萬億計的資產可能會擱淺 全球第二大石油出口國俄羅斯，對處於能源出口網絡核心位置的烏克蘭甫一開戰，國際油價立即衝到每桶105美元，幾番震盪後又向110美元叩關。從更深層來看，這場戰爭其實是在催化油價「超級周期」由威脅轉為事實，並且加速運行。 (Bloomberg Commodity Index)的23類能源、原材料和農作物期貨價格比一年期遠期合約高出約6%，這比至少15年來任何一個月末的現貨溢價率都要高。 高盛(Goldman Sachs)大宗商品研究主管Jeffrey Currie甚至發出警告「超级飙升」(Super Spike）時期已來臨。 這場俄烏戰爭雖刺激油價衝高，但更警醒世人了解到要減弱地緣政治的干擾，釜底抽薪之計就是擴大替代能源投資，加速脫離對油、氣的依賴。 因此這波油價「Super Spike」很可能只是夕陽無限好，不久後便將隨著綠色經濟加速來臨而跟全世界就此告別。 拉回台灣，我們最不願看到的全台大停電事件又發生了，這次停電規模不遜於2017年8月15日全台大停電；很難想像人均GDP已突破3萬美元的台灣，停電事件仍層出不窮。 事實上，蔡政府上任以來，電力供應一直吃緊；除了這兩次全台停電外，地區性跳電、停電事件時有所聞，政府慣性的理由是發電廠問題，也會出面道歉，並承諾會落實改善。此次也不例外，主要是因為興達電廠開關場，導致南部電力系統電網故障衍生事故。 但諷刺的是蔡總統日前接見八大工商團體負責人，才承諾政府會維持供電穩定，言猶在耳就發生大停電，確實是很尷尬。 層出不窮的事件，突顯台灣電力結構系統的脆弱： 1， 特別是由於台灣供應電力吃緊，時常在滿載邊緣，為了要確保供電，近年來電力系統固定維修的時間也被壓縮，當然會導致故障機率增加。 例如，以目前仍占台灣供電83%的火力發電為例，各機組所配置之散熱管路，在天氣愈熱時愈容易破管故障，尤其是夏季供電高峰，更因無法確實檢查更換，導致這幾年破管機率增加。 2， 除此之外，美中貿易戰不但使得不少台商回流，台灣也成為大陸外商投資的選項；再加上台灣半導體產業的強勢發展，更吸引不少供應鏈關鍵外國企業來台投資，台灣吸引外資金額也維持在高檔，因此帶動用電量成長。以去年為例，我國用電年增率遠遠高於政府預期，達到4.6％並創下11年來的新高，而且未來仍會持續增加。 3， 儘管政府正持續積極招商，但有關缺乏足夠電力、水源、土地、勞動力和人才的「五缺」問題，一直沒有獲得完善的解決，也不斷被工業總會及外國商會白皮書中所提及。 特別是目前各國積極發展的重點產業，例如半導體及資料處理中心，不乏是高耗能產業，五缺瓶頸會成為台灣吸引外人投資的一大罩門。 而以本次南部大停電範圍來看，實已波及到當地各大工業區，其中又以電子相關產業影響最重。此事件也再次突顯出，長期以來南部電力不穩的事實，必然會成為廠商既有投資與地方後續招商的重大隱憂。 歷次大停電已證實，倉促上路的能源政策，並無法解決電力問題。以蔡政府上台即積極推動的離岸風電政策，在價格、股權移轉、國產化等，問題即層出不窮，而且目前進度也落後。 另外太陽光電則是因為土地取得與保護政策，也嚴重影響布建進度。 經貿首長也坦承若配套措施不到位，台灣2025非核家園「以綠能取代核電，以天然氣取代燃煤發電」的能源政策將無法落實。 認真來說，企業所關心的並非何種電力來源，更不是在及格邊緣打轉的供電系統，而是能有一穩定及充足的電力供應，民眾更無法接受政府的「台灣會斷電、跳電、限電，但不缺電」的說辭。 政府為了支持特定政治主張的訴求，卻危及到最根本的基礎建設，亦無法解決以電力為首的五缺盲點，勢必侵蝕掉台灣在各方面所具有的競爭優勢，非常不利於總體產業與國家的長期發展。 今年1月國際能源總署（IEA）指出，全世界的總和用電量持續上升，在未來三年如果各國不能積極同心協力做好電力的改革（如智能電表的裝置等），有很高的機率全球將發生電力短缺的威脅，進而影響疫後世界的經濟復甦力道。 世界經濟論壇（WEF）於去年1月發布的「全球風險報告2021」中揭露，若依衝擊最大風險排序，則前五名分別為傳染性疾病、氣候政策失敗、大規模武器破壞、生物多樣性減少以及天然資源危機。由此可見，不管依前述哪一種方式排序，全球風險前五大至少都有三項和氣候風險相關。 報告中提出發展迅速、且規模超出人類預估的氣候變遷現象，已經造成不可逆的後果，也將使環境變化及災害循環遠遠超出生態系可以負荷的上限。 更令人憂心的是，去年第26屆聯合國氣候變遷大會（COP26）各國所作出的承諾，尚不足以達到「巴黎氣候協定」防止全球升溫攝氏1.5度的目標；如果不採取更雷厲風行的減碳行動，則全球對氣候變遷的減緩及調適能力將大幅削減，想達到2050淨零碳排的目標將遙不可及。 「綠天鵝」一詞乃2020年國際清算銀行（BIS）發布之「綠天鵝：處於氣候變遷時代的中央銀行與金融穩定」報告首創，意指因氣候變遷所帶來的系統性風險。事實上，除了WEF連續揭露的氣候風險外，2022年的綠天鵝也包括能源危機所帶來的風險。 換言之，從舊經濟轉型到新經濟所牽動的舊能源至新能源，將引發一場不可避免的綠色通货膨胀： 1， 例如綠能產業中的太陽能、風力發電以及電動車的設備投資，都需要使用大量的銅、鋁、鋼鐵等，進而使得金屬價格大幅攀升。此外，生質能源的發展必須大量使用黃豆、玉米等農產品，亦將導致價格大幅攀升。 2， 另一方面，歐盟等各國對於ESG及碳排要求提高，將促使各國單位生產碳排放量較高的企業，必須採取必要的因應措施；例如：購買綠色憑證、碳權、增設綠能設施等方式，這些作為也將增加生產成本，進而使終端售價提高。 總而言之，由世界經濟論壇連續兩年的「全球風險報告」，可以清晰看出氣候風險將是除傳染病外，人類現在及未來必須面對最嚴厲的風險；而為了因應氣候風險這隻綠天鵝，全球必須付出昂貴的代價：GDP減損及綠色通膨。人類必須及早醒悟、並儘快執行對策，才可以極小化所必須付出的代價，而台灣也不例外，政府必須加緊減碳路徑圖之規劃與落實。 1， NIKKEI ASIA Construction of TSMC's U.S. chip plant delayed by labor crunch, COVID 台積電美國晶片廠因勞動力短缺而推遲建設 2， CNBC February jobs report expected to show strong labor market continuing with solid wage gains 2月就業報告預計將顯示強勁的勞動力市場和穩定的工資增長 3， Bloomberg Labor Market Nears Pre-Covid Levels, But Recovery Is Uneven 勞動力市場接近新冠肺炎爆發前的水平，但復甦並不平衡 台灣 2021 年出生人數創歷史新低，人口負成長持續擴大，內政部公布今年 1 月戶口統計資料，截至 1 月底，總人口數較去年同期減少了20 萬人。台灣人口連續 2 年「生不如死」。根據美國 CIA 公布的 2021 年全球生育率預測報告顯示，227 個國家或地區中，亞洲敬陪末座，分別為香港、澳門、新加坡、南韓，台灣是最後一名，每位婦女平均終生只生育 1.07 個孩子。 但同時間，台灣的半導體產業，不論是設計、製造、封裝到測試，都具有國際競爭優勢，且人力需求大，薪資優渥，不論是對國家經濟發展及穩定人民就業，都可說是「護國產業」。但全球半導體人才奇缺，台灣半導體業的人力需求更為急迫，尤其相關領域的大學以上畢業生日益減少，每年相關領域的畢業生人數，光是台積電一家都不夠用。 半導體業可說是正進入新一輪的搶人大戰，根據日前104人力銀行發布的調查，2021年第4季半導體人才缺口創下七年以來最高紀錄；想進入半導體業的求職者，平均每人可獲得3.7份的工作機會，更是三年來的新高。 為何半導體業的人才荒會如此嚴重？首先是供給面短少。少子化已成為國安問題，根據教育部的數據顯示，2017至2020年間，大學STEM理工系畢業生從10.1萬人減少至9.2萬人，人口下滑使人才斷層的趨勢在短期難以逆轉。其二是龐大的擴廠效應，使得人才需求急遽增加，尤其台積電在台灣北、中、南設廠，大晶片公司以高薪搶人，其他廠商根本競爭不過。其三是從上游的IC設計到晶圓製造，半導體的專業性非常強，有相當門檻，並非人人可以嘗試，這些年大學理工科系畢業生占比卻不斷下滑。 其實，政府也深知半導體人才荒的困境，所以蔡英文總統去年12月連續主持陽明交大、台大、清大「半導體學院」的揭牌典禮，連同10月剪綵的成大，共有四所大學的半導體學院開幕，中山、中興、政大、台科大等大學也提出申請。 但是半導體學院開出來的名額大部分還是碩士學生，只是把中段學校或其他領域的學生吸引過去，也就是人才版圖的挖東牆補西牆，排擠其他產業的人才需求，對於增加整個科技產業優質從業人力，效益不大。 如果半導體學院能以接近市場薪資請來專業人才擔任教職，吸引國際優秀的學生前來就讀博士班，未來才有機會培養出優質並具有研發能力的人才，幫忙解決半導體人才不足的問題。 半導體業的人才不足，還跨出理工專業，台積電日前在社群網路服務網站LinkedIn徵才，開出的職缺是政治學類相關博士的商業智能分析師，主要是從事美中台關係與政治經濟學的研究。這類型的人才要懂半導體產業，還要精通政治學、經濟學，預估年薪至少有四、五百萬元，引發社會科學界的大騷動。 台積電表示，主因是公司需要對地緣政治和經濟變化的轉變、以及對IC產業供應鏈影響有精闢了解的人才。據學界表示，除半導體技術最相關的電資理工領域外，未來半導體人才生態鏈包括極廣，不僅是地緣政治，商管、人資、綠能、環保等都是所需人才領域，這樣的外溢效果值得肯定。 面對半導體業人才荒，政府應該升級至國安層級來慎重對應。 台灣缺資源、缺人才，別的國家也經歷過相同的困難，最後還是走出自己的路，歐洲的荷蘭選擇走向國際，並在各國雇用在地人才，開拓市場，就是台灣可以借鏡的對象。 新冠肺炎疫情在全球各領域都創造了新常態，像是塞港危機加劇了供應鏈的混亂，晶片的大缺貨讓汽車到家電產業都嘗到了有訂單卻出不了貨的痛楚。 在美國，即便疫情已逐漸緩和，但不少產業反映找不到員工，待業者寧可繼續在家躺平領補助也不願上工。在台灣，疫情造就的疫後經濟新常態，在人力供應上也出現了類似的問題，政府必須加快應對的腳步。 台灣去年全年失業率3.95%，為近七年新高，也是蔡政府上任以來的最高水準。 去年失業率攀高主要受疫情影響，特別是本土疫情嚴重的5到7月，在去年6月時就業人口降至1,130萬的全年低點，顯示疫情對就業的衝擊。 另一方面，去年我國總體經濟數據亦是近年最佳，不論出口與外銷訂單數字均表現亮眼，不少企業加薪擴大徵才，讓就業市場冷熱情況更加兩極。 一邊是失業率攀高，另一邊卻出現了人力供應缺口，凸顯我國就業市場正進入一個患寡也患不均的局面。 在患寡上，以台積電為例，到2030年前台積電每年需要約250名與半導體領域相關的博士畢業生，但國內頂尖大學的相關領域博士生每年最多也才300名，僅台積電一家公司可能就徵不到足夠的人才，更何況還有其他廣大的資通訊產業也需要相關的人力。 在台積電等強勢產業缺工潮的影響下，磁吸效應加劇其他產業人才供給的問題。 年後國內航太維修相關行業出現少見的離職潮，轉向了科技業發展。就業者轉向薪資更高的職位是市場供需所致，但航太業若一時之間補不上人力，不但影響航空業的競爭力，也可能影響飛安。這些現象均是疫情對全球產業產生的影響，其激起的漣漪與蝴蝶效應，正在我國就業市場發酵。 從中長期來看，台灣產業發展與人才培育的脫鉤問題，值得政府投入更多關注。 過去十年產業界不斷呼籲政府必須重視產學落差的情況，從技職體系到頂大的高階研究人才培育，都出現了不小的斷層。 另一方面，我對外開放白、藍領人才移民政策仍待進一步優化與擴大彈性。對內深化產學合作，對外擴大吸納台灣需要的產業人才，內、外同步前進，我國產業才能度過患寡又患不均的人力供應挑戰。 《經濟學人》推薦 這期的經濟學人封面設計用圖說話，封面上除了一個經濟學人的Logo，完全沒有任何的文字補充說明。但你可以一目瞭然這就是一本圍繞烏克蘭危機的雜誌內容，經濟學人刻意以烏克蘭國旗的藍黃雙色間滲出的鮮血表達出它對這個戰事可能帶來的後續影響充滿擔憂。 假使第一週的勇敢就足以讓戰鬥結束那就好了。但這個俄羅斯總統絕不會這麼輕易就被迫退出。從一開始，普丁就明確表示，這是一場會不停升級的戰爭——這是一個隱晦卻充滿災難性暗示現實的醫學用詞。在最殘酷的情況下，所謂的行動升級，就是意味著普丁曾經對全世界的一些威脅性談話，其中包括宣示不論它們做什麼，他只會變得更加暴力，甚至採用更具破壞性的行為，包括訴諸核武器的使用。因此，他持續警告著全世界，當他開始採取更強硬的手段時，這個世界將會被嚇得腿軟。 經濟學人嚴正警告不能允許這種情況發生。這不單單是因為放棄烏克蘭是錯誤的，還因為普丁並不會就此止步。升級只是一種迷幻的說法。如果普丁得逞，他的下一個目標將是喬治亞、摩爾多瓦或波羅的海國家。經濟學人認為沒有辦法完全制止他，他就不會停止動作。 隨著普丁軍事行動的升級，經濟學人認為全世界必須統一戰線讓普丁這個不必要的戰爭變成一場他和俄羅斯都無法贏得的戰爭。 留言告訴我你對這一集的想法： https://open.firstory.me/story/cl0hmpctt8nv80a3177euzryo?m=comment Powered by Firstory Hosting

After reviewing macro news and markets for the week ended March 4, Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau try to bring some clarity to the chaos reigning over ETFs, indexes and other instruments with direct exposure to Russia (15:14). The war in Ukraine and dueling sanctions from Russia and the West have resulted in trading halts for specific securities by the New York Stock Exchange/Arca and by the Chicago Board Options Exchange, ETF liquidations and removal of Russian stocks from some of the diversified indexes that had included them. Surveying the week in markets (2:12), the cohosts note the S&P 500 declined 1.27% for the week, led lower by financials, which lost nearly 5%. Energy stocks rose 9% on fears of Russian supply disruptions. A flight to safety in Treasuries brought the 2- to 10-year yield spread closer to inversion with only 10s yielding only 25 bps more than 2s. That Russian supply shock story was in stark evidence in the commodities markets (6:50). The Bloomberg Commodity Index surged 13%, with the greatest strength in commodities dependent on Russian producers, including wheat, up 60% for the week. Looking ahead to the market week ending March 11 (29:03), Jeff and Sam note the consensus expectation of an 80 basis point month-over-month increase in the February Consumer Price Index, due Thursday March 10. That would mean a 7.9% year-over-year increase in the CPI. Barring an unforeseen inflationary shock, such as a hotter-than-expected CPI, Jeff Mayberry expects a 25-bp hike in the Federal Funds target rate when the Federal Open Market Committee convenes March 16.

After their market and macro reviews for the Jan. 31-Feb. 4 week, Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau for their Topic of the Week (20:48) delve into the surprisingly wide divergence between the January jobs reports by the payroll processing giant ADP and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. On Friday, the BLS reported the U.S. added 467,000 jobs in January (including 444,000 in the private sector), a surprising departure from the 301,000 loss indicated on Wednesday by the ADP survey. Over the long term, the ADP report, which front runs the BLS report two days in advance, has closely correlated to the government report. As a result, the ADP numbers caused some analysts to revise slightly lower their expectations of the BLS number. However, Mr. Lau notes (34:00), “it seems like for the most part, the financial markets do shrug off the ADP numbers and wait that two days and show that patience to get the BLS report.” In their recap of the market week ended Feb. 4, which saw a rise of 1.55% of the S&P 500 and a 2.27% gain by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, the podcast hosts (5:19) zeroed in on the ongoing losses in investment-grade corporate bonds. That sector of the fixed income universe posted a return of -1½% for the week, bringing its year-to-date return to -5%. Looking ahead to macro news for the following week (41:19), they have their radar fixed on the January Consumer Price Index report due Thursday and the Atlanta Fed's wage growth tracker on Friday. The headline CPI, according to the consensus estimate, is expected to print 7.3% year-over-year versus 7.0% the previous month. Mr. Mayberry says the January or February CPI “is likely to be the peak of the cycle”; he'll be watching the Atlanta Fed wage growth tracker to see “if we're getting into a wage-price spiral.”

After a review of the Jan. 10-14 market activity and macro news, DoubleLine's Samuel Lau and Jeff Mayberry explain and explore commodities futures for their Topic of the Week (15:46). In that discussion, they discuss the market participants (notably hedgers and producers versus speculators), the important distinction between spot-price returns of commodities versus investable returns afforded by futures contracts, the different exchanges over which commodities futures trade, and the term structures of backwardation and contango, with their respective positive versus negative roll returns. In their recap of markets for Jan. 10-14 (1:45), energy stocks, up more than 5% for the week, was the sole sector of the S&P 500 to deliver a meaningful positive return. With the exception of energy and communications services, the later up a meager 9 basis points (bps), the remaining sectors were in the red, with real estate stocks down almost 2%. Value stocks, up 1 bp, continued to outperform growth stocks, down 1%. Yields (3:55) were up across the Treasury curve, except for the long bond, which was flat. The largest yield increases at the shorter end of the curve, which tend to be most sensitive to Federal Reserve rate policy. Commodities (5:53) were up 2.25% on the Bloomberg Commodity Index, led by the energy constituents.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose 27% in 2021, its best year in decades. Gold & silver sit at the crossroads of four of today's biggest investment themes. Investors are concerned and trying to navigate their portfolios around inflation, the China contagion, energy & the Great Reset.

Come esporre il proprio portafoglio tra mercato azionario, obbligazionario e delle materie prime in base allo scenario economico? L'importanza dell'intermarket analysis e lo studio del Bloomberg Commodity Index.Sale l'inflazione provvisoria di ottobre in Spagna, al 5.5%, mentre si attende l'intervento della BCE.00:00 Introduzione alla puntata di oggi di Trading Today01:35 Argomenti del giorno02:48 Materie prime in portafoglio04:50 Veloce analisi sul DJP, il Bloomberg Commodity Index 06:12 In quale scenario performano meglio le materie prime? 07:20 Rapporto fra DJP/US05, cosa sta sovraperformando? 12:01 Rapporto fra DJP/SPY: che relazione c'è tra commodities e azionario?13:35 Regime inflazionistico, come collegare i punti 17:40 Asset Allocation, come mi sono comportato20:40 BTC cosa sta facendo?  Flash Crash al rilascio del ETF di VanEck21:45 Us Dollar, Gold, Petrolio, Rame, Natural gas e S&P 50024:00 Q&A “ Inflazione buona e cattiva “27:00 Q&A “ Hai in progetto nuovi corsi o business “31:20 Q&A “ Ha senso investire sulle commodities su ETF o FUTURE “ 35:00 Nasdaq e Intel, la newsletter di AT e saluti finali 

Every week we see a different commodity skyrocket in price, and as bullish as we are, we're still missing out on just about every one of these!  Not acceptable.  There is a way to make sure this stops happening, and we participate in some real gains every time it occurs.  Broad-based commodity ETFs are the way.   Blog for this week's episode -  https://nononsenseforex.com/investing/broad-commodities-etfs/   Bloomberg Commodity Index - https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/BCOM/charts?CountryCode=XX   Blueberry Markets Blog - https://nononsenseforex.com/uncategorized/blueberry-markets-review-my-top-broker-for-2019/   If you don't qualify for Blueberry, go here - https://nononsenseforex.com/uncategorized/markets-com-review/   Americans Go Here https://nononsenseforex.com/uncategorized/ig-us-review/   Follow VP on Twitter https://twitter.com/This_Is_VP4X   Check out my Forex trading material too! https://nononsenseforex.com/   The host of this podcast is not a licensed financial advisor, and nothing heard on this podcast should be taken as financial advice.  Do your own research and understand all financial decisions and the results therein are yours and yours alone.  The host is not responsible for the actions of their sponsors and/or affiliates.  Conversely, views expressed on this podcast are that of the host only and may not reflect the views of any companies mentioned. Trading Forex involves risk.  Losses can exceed deposits. We are not taking requests for episode topics at this time.  Thank you for understanding.

SSA economic growth: The World Bank has raised its SSA growth forecast to 3.3% for 2021 which is about 1ppt higher than its April forecast. Underpinning the revision is the sharp increase in commodity prices (the Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 31% year-to-date) and easing lockdown restrictions See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Will Rhind, the CEO and Found of GranitesShares joins Jay Coulter on this episode of The Resilient Advisor Podcast to discuss portfolio construction with broad-based commodity ETFs and gold ETFs.    What We Discuss:   Does it make sense to use the ETF structure for commodity structure?   The Bloomberg Commodity Index vs the GSCI Index.   The implications of the recent energy drawdown.   Mean Reversion implications for index investors.   COMG vs COMB   Gold ETF's as a part of a diversified portfolio.   BAR ETF as a unique gold ETF. (It is not leased out by prospectus)  Connect With Will:   Website: Graniteshares.com     About Will (From His Website)   In 2016, Will Rhind challenged himself to find a way to do things differently. As a 16-year veteran of the ETF industry with experience working at, building and running, well-established successful ETF businesses, he made a keen observation: investing just isn't as exciting as it once was.   Will asked himself is how do you bring back that excitement? As an experienced entrepreneur, he decided to answer that question by launching his own ETF company - GraniteShares was born.   Will's focus on disrupting the financial industry has taken GraniteShares from an idea to a successful start-up garnering the attention of Bain Capital and other well-known ETF investors who support his passion to create products that will change the way people see investing.   Will spends his time outside of GraniteShares with his wife and three children. He's on the Board of Directors of the Bath University Foundation, has a passion for classic cars, Manchester United, and travel – especially back to his roots in Aberdeen, Scotland, “The Granite City”. Tags: Jay Coulter, Resilient Advisor, The Resilient Advisor, Portfolio Construction