Podcasts about gavekal research

March 12, 2025 – What if the U.S. market's golden era just ended—and China's AI stole the crown? Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research analyzes a risk-off market environment in 2025, highlighting a significant shift from U.S. dominance. He notes the Mag 7 stocks' underperformance, triggered by China's DeepSeek AI milestone in January, signaling a broader tech recalibration. Gave sees China,...

In today's episode, Liz Ann Sonders speaks with Louis-Vincent Gave, CEO of Gavekal Research. Louis discusses the unique market dynamics of the past year, focusing on the concentration of U.S. equities, the divergence between growth and value stocks, and the implications of China's trade surplus. Liz Ann and Louis delve into the impact of DeepSeek on the tech landscape, the potential for market bubbles, and future trends in technology and infrastructure spending.Kathy Jones and Liz Ann also discuss the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and its implications for inflation and the equity market. They explore the impact of tariffs on prices, the labor market, and the overall U.S. economy. The discussion also touches on the potential effects of government employment cuts on the unemployment rate and economic indicators. Kathy and Liz Ann conclude with a look at key data releases and indicators to watch in the coming week.You can read the two reports that Liz Ann and Louis discuss here: "Building Narratives Around Obvious Outliers" and "Another Sputnik Moment." On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresThe information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Cryptocurrency-related products carry a substantial level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investments in cryptocurrencies are relatively new, highly speculative, and may be subject to extreme price volatility, illiquidity, and increased risk of loss, including your entire investment in the fund. Spot markets on which cryptocurrencies trade are relatively new and largely unregulated, and therefore, may be more exposed to fraud and security breaches than established, regulated exchanges for other financial assets or instruments. Some cryptocurrency-related products use futures contracts to attempt to duplicate the performance of an investment in cryptocurrency, which may result in unpredictable pricing, higher transaction costs, and performance that fails to track the price of the reference cryptocurrency as intended. Please read more about risks of trading cryptocurrency futures here. Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and cannot protect against losses in a declining market.Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.(0225-V55E)

NVIDIA just lost $600 billion in market cap, the biggest single-day wipeout in history. Is this the beginning of a tech market collapse? In this episode of Soar Financially, I sit down with Louis-Vincent Gave, CEO of Gavekal Research, to break down what this means for the markets, the AI sector, and global economic trends. We discuss China's surprising AI breakthrough with DeepSeek, its impact on US tech dominance, and whether NVIDIA's stock crash signals the end of the AI bubble. We also cover gold's reaction, why central banks continue accumulating, and how inflation, US-China relations, and geopolitics are shaping investment trends. #nvidia #gold #china ----------- Thank you to our #sponsor MONEY METALS. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://bit.ly/BUYGoldSilver ------------

** This episode of Chinese Whispers was recorded in front of a live audience as a part of the Battle of Ideas Festival 2024. ** Is China in decline? I was born in China in the 90s, and growing up it felt like the future was always going to be brighter. My parents were wealthier, more educated, better travelled than their parents, and it seemed assured that my generation would only have even better life chances. But in the 2020s, China's economic growth has slowed down. Some of the once-bright spots in its economy, like real estate, are in slow motion meltdown. In the last couple of years foreign direct investment into the country has been falling at a record pace. The youth unemployment rate from this summer shows that just under a fifth of people under 24 are jobless. So how much of this is a considerable decline in the progress that China has made in the last miraculous half century, or is it just perhaps 'western bias' that's blinding us to what is still a very positive picture? On this live podcast, I discuss this question with a lively and experienced panel of China-watchers: Tom Miller, a senior analyst at Gavekal Research and author of two books on China; Isabel Hilton, a veteran international reporter and founder of the website China Dialogue; and Austin Williams, an architect by training who is also the author of numerous books on China, and teaches at the Xi'An Jiaotong-Liverpool University.

** This episode of Chinese Whispers with Cindy Yu was recorded in front of a live audience as a part of the Battle of Ideas Festival 2024. ** Is China in decline? I was born in China in the 90s, and growing up it felt like the future was always going to be brighter. My parents were wealthier, more educated, better travelled than their parents, and it seemed assured that my generation would only have even better life chances. But in the 2020s, China's economic growth has slowed down. Some of the once-bright spots in its economy, like real estate, are in slow motion meltdown. In the last couple of years foreign direct investment into the country has been falling at a record pace. The youth unemployment rate from this summer shows that just under a fifth of people under 24 are jobless. So how much of this is a considerable decline in the progress that China has made in the last miraculous half century, or is it just perhaps 'western bias' that's blinding us to what is still a very positive picture? On this live podcast, I discuss this question with a lively and experienced panel of China-watchers: Tom Miller, a senior analyst at Gavekal Research and author of two books on China; Isabel Hilton, a veteran international reporter and founder of the website China Dialogue; and Austin Williams, an architect by training who is also the author of numerous books on China, and teaches at the Xi'An Jiaotong-Liverpool University.

This week Kevin & Patrick welcome back to the show, Louis Vincent Gave from Gavekal Research. They dive into the key differences between Chinese and Western capital markets, uncover why gold is surging in a structural bull market, and tackle the challenges of today’s investment landscape. Check Out Gavekal Research: https://www.gavekal.com Follow Louis on X: https://www.x.com/gave_vincent Subscribe To Patrick's New Educational Series ONLY available on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Patrick_Ceresna *Got questions for Kevin and Patrick? Submit your questions to: nostupidquestions@markethuddle.com Visit our merch store!!! https://www.themarkethuddlemerch.com/ To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/

On May 17, Russian President Vladimir Putin concluded a two-day visit to China for his 43rd meeting with Xi Jinping. Based on public readouts, Putin emphasized the economic benefits that the Sino-Russian partnership could bring to both countries. Economic integration between Russia and China has accelerated dramatically, with total trade between them reaching $240 billion US dollars in 2023. Beijing's decision to increase trade with Moscow after the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine has kept the Russian economy afloat. Western sanctions have failed to cripple Russia's economy or its war effort. After the European Union halted the import of Russian oil, China stepped in and has since become Russia's top energy buyer. Moreover, China has become Russia's top goods supplier, having surged its sales of machine tools, microelectronics, and other technology that Moscow uses to produce weaponry in its ongoing war with Ukraine. To discuss China's trade with Russia, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Yanmei Xie. Yanmei is a Geopolitics Analyst at Gavekal Research, where she analyzes the implications of rising geopolitical and geoeconomic risks on trade, investments, and supply chains. Yanmei recently published a report on China's economic support for Russia, which was titled “How China Keeps Russia in Business.”  Timestamps[02:00] China's Economic Support of Russia [05:29] Areas of Success for Western Sanctions[07:11] A Surge in Chinese Exports After the Invasion of Ukraine [09:54] Chinese Playbook for Circumventing Sanctions[13:36] Chinese Provision of Crucial Materials[15:17] Incentive to Capture the Russian Energy Market[19:17] Impact of Western Industrial Policies on Sino-Russian Trade [20:20] Possibility of Increased Sanctions to Deter China[23:24] China's Toolbox of Retaliatory Measures [26:48] Plateauing Economic Support for Russia

In this episode of Pekingology, Freeman Chair in China Studies Jude Blanchette,is joined by Yanmei Xie, Geopolitics Analyst with Gavekal Research, who has recently been publishing articles at Gavekal and the Financial Times. Today, Jude and Yanmei discuss her recent client notes on Chinese overcapacity and its EV sector.

It's episode 143 and we're very happy to have our guest Louis-Vincent Gave, the Founding Partner and Chief Executive Officer at Gavekal Research. Louis has written 7 books and many articles about the global economy and emerging markets, emphasizing Asia.

Louis Gave of Gavekal Research argues that a multipolar world is rapidly emerging and the days of American hegemony are coming to an end. Louis believes that the forecast the Western media is making for China is far off the mark and it is the U.S. policymakers that need to examine themselves for fatal flaws. Sign up for my free weekly newsletter at https://jaymartin.substack.com/subscribe

Sep 20, 2023 – FS Insider sits down with Louis-Vincent Gave, Founding Partner & Chief Executive Officer at Gavekal Research, to discuss today's biggest macro developments when it comes to China's economy and headlines warning...

Mauldin Economics COO Ed D'Agostino talks to Louis Gave, CEO of Gavekal Research, about China's so-called economic crisis, the Fed's unspoken third mandate, and “the real story of the summer.”

Heute sprechen wir erstmalig und exklusiv mit dem Experten, wenn es um Emerging Markets geht. Louis-Vincent Gave ist Buchautor und CEO von Gavekal Research. Zusammen besprechen wir, welche Investition jetzt besonders interessant sind, wie er die Proteste in Frankreich beobachtet und welche Rohstoffe seine Favoriten sind. Zudem frage ich ihn, wie seine Meinung zu Bitcoin aussieht und welche drei Aktien er für die nächsten 10 Jahre kaufen würde. Viel Spaß mit dieser langen, aber besonders informativen Folge "Marc spricht mit". Aufnahmedatum: 17.05.2023 Zum Video mit deutschen Untertiteln: Klick

Jul 26, 2023 – Louis-Vincent Gave at Gavekal Research provides an update on his macro-outlook, discussing the current state of China's economy, the demographic decline in China as well as in the wider developed world, how this...

Today we are joined by Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research for a fascinating discussion on the key global macro trends impacting markets. Louis outlines his case for why the consensus is wrong to expect a US recession and why he sees accommodative US fiscal policy as a key driver of the economy in the next 1-2 years. We discuss the upside and downside risks to inflation and how weather patterns may be an underappreciated risk to inflation in the next 1-2 years. One of Louis' key calls is an upbeat outlook on emerging markets, particularly in the middle East and Asia. The recent peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia is a key element of this, while the structural trend of de-dollarization and emerging economies increasingly selling goods in their own currency are other elements. We wrap up with an assessment of AI and the economic implications in the medium term.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Louis on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:23 - Introduction to Louis Vincent Gave05:28 - Is the economy starting to crack?10:40 - When is the recession coming?13:13 - The outlook for inflation18:36 - The problem with designification21:18 - The challenges of Chinese economy27:56 - Can the Japanese economic situation be compared to China?31:31 - Looking beyond the U.S and China36:12 - An epic boom in emerging

David welcomes back (for the third time) economist extraordinaire Louis Gave of Gavekal Research for an episode where they geek out for an hour about the U.S. dollar, the bond market, global economic reality, and so much more.

In this episode of The Big Questions, John Briggs and Kevin Cummins speak with legendary economist and investor Charles Gave, Founder of Gavekal Research, about recent strains in the banking sector and discuss the potential long-term repercussions for markets and the global economy. Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen our latest episodes as soon as they're available.NB: This was recorded on 25 April 2023. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Why did Xi Jinping choose to visit Moscow at a time when Russia has been ostracized by the global community for its invasion of Ukraine? Did both sides get what they wanted from the visit? Has Russia resigned itself to being the junior partner in this burgeoning relationship? What is China's agenda in putting forward a peace plan for Ukraine? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Yanmei Xie, a geopolitics analyst at Gavekal Research, and Vita Spivak, an analyst at Control Risks and non-resident senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

I stumbled across a Gavekal Research Daily Comment over the weekend with a really interesting table that I thought we could discuss today.Gavekal Research, if you don't know it, is a financial research firm that provides analysis and insights on global economies, markets and industries. It was founded in 1999 by Charles Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, and Louis-Vincent Gave, and is headquartered in Hong Kong. It is, the internet tells me, known for its holistic approach to analysis. Holistic is one of those corporate buzzwords that I never really know what it meant. Again the internet is our friend: in the context of financial analysis, holistic analysis refers to considering a wide range of factors, such as economic, political, and behavioural, in order to gain a full understanding of market developments. It is a way of looking at the big picture rather than just focusing on specific details or individual factors.Why didn't they just say “big picture”? Such is the equivocal financial world in which we live.In any case, Louis-Vincent's Gave's report is a compelling one. He describes how, roughly every decade or so, financial markets fall in love with a new narrative. This is something we have observed many times in the column. The 1970s were all about precious metals and energy. The 1980s went to Japan. The 1990s saw tech stocks take over and the 2000s were all about natural resources and extraordinary growth in China. The 2010s were all about tech.So what about the 2020s. What are they all about?What does the next decade have in store for investors? Gave suggests that there are three narratives each with a core idea: “The opening of new markets to capitalism (Ricardian growth), technological breakthroughs (Schumpeterian growth), or the fear that in the coming years there will not be enough for everyone (the Malthusian constraint).”Each time the narrative is persuasive and rooted in some truth, which is why it takes hold, but by the end of the cycle, valuations reach such extremes that they no longer make sense, a bear market sets in and a new narrative takes over. Asset allocation is everything, I have often argued - and it has been repeatedly proven that being int he right sector is more important than individual stock selection. All you have to do is shift from narrative to narrative. A lot easier said than done of course.But here is Gave's humdinger of a table.Share this amazing article.You can see how clearly the narrative has shifted with each decade. By the end of the 1970s six of the world's largest ten companies were oil companies. By the end of the next decade, just one of them was.By the end of the 1980s, eight of the world's largest ten companies were Japanese. By the end of the following decade, just two of them were.At the turn of the century, seven of the world's largest ten companies were tech related. By the end of the following decade, just two were.At the end of the noughties, seven of the world's largest companies were natural resource companies. By the end of the following decade, not one was.2022 seems to have marked the turning point. The Covid rallies in tech were the final spike in an amazing bull market. These are all huge companies that make the foundation on which portfolios are built. But how many of 2021's top ten will be there in ten years' time? Not more than two or three I wouldn't have thought.You have to hand it to Microsoft. It's been there three decades running. Perhaps that's because, in a way, as much as it is a tech stock it is also a patent holding company. Apple has also made that list twice. So mighty are these companies and so entrenched in their monopolies, it is very hard to envisage them not being so mighty in ten years' time.  But this is the world of tech. New inventions can come along that quickly make old monopolies redundant.In that regard, I've just been playing with a new Open AI chat bot that my son, who is at University in Bristol, put me on to and it's extraordinary. It can write essays. It wrote a biog that I am now going to use on my site - and it's a better biog than I've ever had. What the impact of it might be on, say, Google, who knows? The investment landscape has changed for goodGave says waiting for the Fed to cut rates and being long the likes of Nvidia or Alphabet makes “about as much sense as sitting in Tokyo in 1992 waiting for the Bank of Japan to cut rates in order to buy Industrial Bank of Japan.”In short, we are in a transitioning phase. What does the next decade have in store for us? Elsewhere Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital also argues that we are in a “Sea Change” - only the third we have seen in his career. That the model of success for the previous cycle is not going to work this time around. He suggests that the high leverage, asset owning, low-interest rate, low yield, low inflation models of the last cycle are behind us. The general landscape is much less optimistic. He suggests that stimulative rates are not coming anytime soon and that the base rate will remain in the 2-4% range. We are now in a full-return world, not a low-return world, and investors can get good returns from credit yield instruments -  high-yielding bonds and so on.What worked before will not work now. What works now might be something that hasn't worked for a long time.Commodities could be winners Gave meanwhile suggests emerging markets and commodities. Even with a China slowdown/lockdown, the Fed tightening and a surging US dollar, the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodities Index (S&P GCSI) has still returned 27%.This will be an even better story when these forces reverse - when China opens up, the Fed stops tightening and the US dollar rolls over. The GSCI has returned 27% mostly on the back of energy. Metals have been a rather different story. But with those three reversals in place - weak dollar, no more tightening and China open - the stage is set for metals.What do you think the next decade's narrative is going to be? It's there percolating somewhere. Malthusian, Ricardian or Schumpterian?Check out special report on helium, if you haven't already, and Dr John's latest on bonds. Both for paying subscribers, there is lots of valuable info to be had.Please consider subscribing.If you are interested in buying gold bullion, my current recommended bullion dealer in the UK is The Pure Gold Company, whether you are taking delivery or storing online. Premiums are low, quality of service is high. You can deal with a human being. I have an affiliation deals with them.Have you got you Kisses on a Postcard CDs yet?This article first appeared at Moneyweek. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

I stumbled across a Gavekal Research Daily Comment over the weekend with a really interesting table that I thought we could discuss today.Gavekal Research, if you don't know it, is a financial research firm that provides analysis and insights on global economies, markets and industries. It was founded in 1999 by Charles Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, and Louis-Vincent Gave, and is headquartered in Hong Kong. It is, the internet tells me, known for its holistic approach to analysis. Holistic is one of those corporate buzzwords that I never really know what it meant. Again the internet is our friend: in the context of financial analysis, holistic analysis refers to considering a wide range of factors, such as economic, political, and behavioural, in order to gain a full understanding of market developments. It is a way of looking at the big picture rather than just focusing on specific details or individual factors.Why didn't they just say “big picture”? Such is the equivocal financial world in which we live.In any case, Louis-Vincent's Gave's report is a compelling one. He describes how, roughly every decade or so, financial markets fall in love with a new narrative. This is something we have observed many times in the column. The 1970s were all about precious metals and energy. The 1980s went to Japan. The 1990s saw tech stocks take over and the 2000s were all about natural resources and extraordinary growth in China. The 2010s were all about tech.So what about the 2020s. What are they all about?What does the next decade have in store for investors? Gave suggests that there are three narratives each with a core idea: “The opening of new markets to capitalism (Ricardian growth), technological breakthroughs (Schumpeterian growth), or the fear that in the coming years there will not be enough for everyone (the Malthusian constraint).”Each time the narrative is persuasive and rooted in some truth, which is why it takes hold, but by the end of the cycle, valuations reach such extremes that they no longer make sense, a bear market sets in and a new narrative takes over. Asset allocation is everything, I have often argued - and it has been repeatedly proven that being int he right sector is more important than individual stock selection. All you have to do is shift from narrative to narrative. A lot easier said than done of course.But here is Gave's humdinger of a table.Share this amazing article.You can see how clearly the narrative has shifted with each decade. By the end of the 1970s six of the world's largest ten companies were oil companies. By the end of the next decade, just one of them was.By the end of the 1980s, eight of the world's largest ten companies were Japanese. By the end of the following decade, just two of them were.At the turn of the century, seven of the world's largest ten companies were tech related. By the end of the following decade, just two were.At the end of the noughties, seven of the world's largest companies were natural resource companies. By the end of the following decade, not one was.2022 seems to have marked the turning point. The Covid rallies in tech were the final spike in an amazing bull market. These are all huge companies that make the foundation on which portfolios are built. But how many of 2021's top ten will be there in ten years' time? Not more than two or three I wouldn't have thought.You have to hand it to Microsoft. It's been there three decades running. Perhaps that's because, in a way, as much as it is a tech stock it is also a patent holding company. Apple has also made that list twice. So mighty are these companies and so entrenched in their monopolies, it is very hard to envisage them not being so mighty in ten years' time.  But this is the world of tech. New inventions can come along that quickly make old monopolies redundant.In that regard, I've just been playing with a new Open AI chat bot that my son, who is at University in Bristol, put me on to and it's extraordinary. It can write essays. It wrote a biog that I am now going to use on my site - and it's a better biog than I've ever had. What the impact of it might be on, say, Google, who knows? The investment landscape has changed for goodGave says waiting for the Fed to cut rates and being long the likes of Nvidia or Alphabet makes “about as much sense as sitting in Tokyo in 1992 waiting for the Bank of Japan to cut rates in order to buy Industrial Bank of Japan.”In short, we are in a transitioning phase. What does the next decade have in store for us? Elsewhere Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital also argues that we are in a “Sea Change” - only the third we have seen in his career. That the model of success for the previous cycle is not going to work this time around. He suggests that the high leverage, asset owning, low-interest rate, low yield, low inflation models of the last cycle are behind us. The general landscape is much less optimistic. He suggests that stimulative rates are not coming anytime soon and that the base rate will remain in the 2-4% range. We are now in a full-return world, not a low-return world, and investors can get good returns from credit yield instruments -  high-yielding bonds and so on.What worked before will not work now. What works now might be something that hasn't worked for a long time.Commodities could be winners Gave meanwhile suggests emerging markets and commodities. Even with a China slowdown/lockdown, the Fed tightening and a surging US dollar, the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodities Index (S&P GCSI) has still returned 27%.This will be an even better story when these forces reverse - when China opens up, the Fed stops tightening and the US dollar rolls over. The GSCI has returned 27% mostly on the back of energy. Metals have been a rather different story. But with those three reversals in place - weak dollar, no more tightening and China open - the stage is set for metals.What do you think the next decade's narrative is going to be? It's there percolating somewhere. Malthusian, Ricardian or Schumpterian?Check out special report on helium, if you haven't already, and Dr John's latest on bonds. Both for paying subscribers, there is lots of valuable info to be had.Please consider subscribing.If you are interested in buying gold bullion, my current recommended bullion dealer in the UK is The Pure Gold Company, whether you are taking delivery or storing online. Premiums are low, quality of service is high. You can deal with a human being. I have an affiliation deals with them.Have you got you Kisses on a Postcard CDs yet?This article first appeared at Moneyweek. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU'LL LEARN: 02:52 - Louis's current assessment of the global economy and financial markets. 06:15 - Why Louis thinks the current price of the S&P has not fully priced in the risks of a recession. 07:52 - Is now the time to buy the dip or remain more defensive?07:52 - How to approach investing in a bear market, and what investments Louis sees as the most promising sectors. 10:39 - Why he believes the energy sector is in a new structural bull market. 17:54 - Louis's outlook on Chinese equities including Alibaba, and emerging markets. 26:08 - How to construct a well built portfolio using Louis's 6 building blocks framework, and examples of investments that fall into each. 36:26 - Louis's 4 quadrant framework used to link different macro environments to an appropriate investing strategy. 40:49 - Why gold hasn't performed as expected this year in USD terms, and Louis outlook going forward.47:48 - Why Louis thinks moving to a deflationary bust is not likely. 52:40 - The risk of China de-dollarization, what this means and what implications this would have for global markets. And much, much more!*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.BOOKS AND RESOURCESCheck out: Gavekal Research. Check out Louis's Book: Avoiding the Punch: Investing in Uncertain Times.Related Episode: Risk Management Techniques & Studying Warren Buffett w/ Max Rudolph - MI193.NEW TO THE SHOW?Check out our Millennial Investing Starter Packs.Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.Try Robert and Clay's favorite tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance.Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets.Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts.P.S The Investor's Podcast Network is excited to launch a subreddit devoted to our fans in discussing financial markets, stock picks, questions for our hosts, and much more! Join our subreddit r/TheInvestorsPodcast today!SPONSORSGet a FREE audiobook from Audible.Invest in high quality, cash flowing real estate without all of the hassle with Passive Investing.Private assets represent 98% of companies in North America but are absent in most portfolios. Reconstruct your portfolio with private markets with Mackenzie Investments.Take a position daily on potential price movements, and gain exposure while limiting risk with Interactive Brokers.If your business has five or more employees and managed to survive Covid you could be eligible to receive a payroll tax rebate of up to twenty-six thousand dollars per employee. Find out if your business qualifies with Innovation Refunds.Get personalized, expert advice that helps you see things clearly with ATB.Find an advisor who's invested in you with iA Financial Services Inc.Don't limit your dreams to the imagination. Make them happen. Explore Iowa for yourself today.Save time and money on your rental property insurance with Steadily. Get a commitment-free quote today.Enjoy a 400-calorie meal that contains 40g of expertly sourced, premium plant protein, all 26 essential vitamins and minerals, and a scientifically calibrated mix of carbs, good fats and fiber with Huel Black Edition. Plus, get a free t-shirt and free shaker with your first order.Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors. Connect with Louis: Twitter | Linkedin Connect with Rebecca: Twitter | InstagramSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In this Deep Dive with Evergreen Gavekal, Partner Jeff Otis interviews CEO of Gavekal Research, Louis Gave, to discuss what it's like being a U.S. investor in today's global markets. Some topics they cover: China after the Party Congress. What are the political and investment implications? Thoughts on the U.S dollar, emerging markets, and energy? U.S. Mid-term Elections: What to be watching? As always, thank you for listening!

Aug 31 – We're in a bear market, says Louis Gave at Gavekal Research, and bonds no longer provide the diversification benefits that they did in the past. So what is an investor to do? Louis explains how we've entered a new investment paradigm...

CEO of Gavekal Research and author Louis-Vincent Gave gives his take on the current energy crisis and how it is directly caused by misguided government policy and needless geopolitical conflict. Louis explains how the Chinafication of the West is leading to a historic disconnect between the political class and the people they govern, and how this disconnect could reshape the world as we know it. Sign up for our free weekly newsletter at https://www.JayMartin.club

In this episode of Coffee with Evergreen, Partner Jeff Otis and CEO of GaveKal Research, Louis Gave, discuss the implications of China's policies on the US economy. Some questions they dive into are: China is easing its COVID restrictions. What does this mean for the market? What should investors pay attention to in the energy market now that China is reopening? Is the US able to aid in the energy market? We've had a market rebound from recent lows; what should we expect in the near future? As always, we hope you enjoy the listen! This episode was recorded on June 6, 2022.

And you're not going to like it! David is joined once again by Louis Gave of Gavekal Research, and the only things they talk about this week are the bond market, the stock market, global wars, foreign currency, crypto, and pets. You won't want to miss a word of Louie's brilliant musings!

Things in Shanghai do seem to be improving somewhat but the city is far from fully exiting lockdowns, and there are lockdowns and disruptions in dozens of other cities, as Gavekal Research noted in a tweet to today: No wonder Premier Li sounds increasingly worried about the mounting economic challenges. In the last few days he has held meetings with local government officials and entrepreneurs and economists. The messaging from both meetings has been similar, that there are “greater uncertainties and challenges to the stable economic performance” and “unexpected changes and mounting downward pressures both domestically and externally” and they need to do more.

Mar 10 – Louis Gave at Gavekal Research explains how the energy crisis underway in Europe is now morphing into a potential financial crisis and recession. Louis discusses the players involved and... Subscribe to our premium weekday podcasts: https://www.financialsense.com/subscribe

In this episode of Coffee with Evergreen, partner Jeff Otis interviews Louis Gave, partner at Evergreen and CEO of Gavekal Research, with an update on the Russia/Ukraine conflict: What's changed in Ukraine? Why has Russia invaded Ukraine? What are the implications for China? How is China handling this in terms of trade? What is the impact on Europe and the US? As always, we hope you enjoy the episode! This episode was recorded on March 1, 2022. This material has been prepared or is distributed solely for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Any opinions, recommendations, and assumptions included in this piece are based upon current market conditions, reflect the personal opinions of the featured guest, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Evergreen Investment Committee as a whole. Investment decisions for Evergreen clients are made by the Evergreen Investment Committee. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments involve risk including the loss of principal. Securities highlighted or discussed in this piece have been selected based on current events and/or relevant topics and are not intended to represent Evergreen's performance or be an indicator for how Evergreen has performed or may perform in the future. Each security discussed has been selected solely for this purpose and has not been selected based on performance or any performance-related criteria. Evergreen's portfolios are actively managed and securities discussed in this piece may or may not be held in such portfolios at any given time.

In this episode of Coffee with Evergreen, partner Jeff Otis interviews Louis Gave, partner at Evergreen and CEO of Gavekal Research, on what's going on in the global economy. What impact can a Russian invasion have on financial markets? What does Russia gain by invading Ukraine? What are the political implications for the US with both Russia and China in this potential invasion? As always, we hope you enjoy the episode! This episode was recorded on February 14, 2022. This material has been prepared or is distributed solely for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Any opinions, recommendations, and assumptions included in this piece are based upon current market conditions, reflect the personal opinions of the featured guest, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Evergreen Investment Committee as a whole. Investment decisions for Evergreen clients are made by the Evergreen Investment Committee. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments involve risk including the loss of principal. Securities highlighted or discussed in this piece have been selected based on current events and/or relevant topics and are not intended to represent Evergreen's performance or be an indicator for how Evergreen has performed or may perform in the future. Each security discussed has been selected solely for this purpose and has not been selected based on performance or any performance-related criteria. Evergreen's portfolios are actively managed and securities discussed in this piece may or may not be held in such portfolios at any given time.

Mike Green sits down with Louis Vincent Gave, CEO of Gavekal Research, to examine the political and economic climate of China. They look at China's 'outsized' role in the world and what impact joining the WTO had on the Chinese nearly two decades ago. The conversation also looks to the future -and the possibility of a digital currency in China -in time for the Beijing Olympics. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

MacroVoices Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Gavekal Research co-founder Louis Vincent Gave as 2021's final feature interview guest. They discuss the big picture of where the world of macro stands and what lays ahead in 2022. Link: https://bit.ly/3HiOB7m

Oct 5 – Gavekal Research's Louis Gave joins FS Insider today to discuss his thoughts on China, Evergrande, energy shortages, and how he believes we are moving into an extended 'age of shortages' and... Subscribe to our premium weekday podcasts: https://www.financialsense.com/subscribe

I have been surprised by the level of interest in my treatment of the “China investment” subject in recent weeks. I kicked things off at the beginning of August with this piece, presenting the background around the tensions between U.S. investment in Chinese equity vs. Chinese fixed income. I followed up with this piece making the case that the Chinese perception of U.S. global economic intentions (primarily around our use of the dollar as the world's reserve currency to facilitate large twin deficits) is at the heart of Chinese beliefs and agendas with their own currency. None of this has been for the purpose of mere armchair theorizing or navel-gazing. While high level takeaways in the discussion of China's place on the global economic stage can be interesting and even provocative, our agenda is investment-specific. We may or may not have an investment thesis to act upon around Chinese financial markets. And we certainly believe the entire discussion is highly relevant for all investors in terms of how the geopolitical and monetary components play themselves out. This week I bring in some reinforcements. Louis Gave of Gavekal Research, one of the foremost economists in the world when it comes to China, Hong Kong, the Pacific Rim, and global fiscal dynamics joins me for a podcast/video discussion on this entire subject. His own views help shine a light on what the fundamental question is we must answer. I will leave you in suspense as to what that is. Once again, all free people can conclude different things about these subjects. But choosing to ignore the entire topic is not an option. History is being made right before our eyes, and our portfolios are asking us to understand it. To that end we work. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Louis Gave of Gavekal Research comes back to Capital Record, this time elaborating on his bullish thesis for China's bond market and currency and explaining a perspective on the country's entire strategic direction that is contrarian to say the least. He is thorough, convincing, data-driven, and masterful in the economics, and the discussion David and Louis have is not one you will want to miss.

I was going to use this week's Dividend Cafe to continue the discussion on China, one that I more exhaustively began three weeks ago, then expanded upon last week. And in fact, I have done a podcast interview with Louis Gave of Gavekal Research on this very topic, poking him and pushing him around his thesis that China's strategic objectives in their bond market and currency are aligned with the objectives of U.S. investors. But I am going to hold this for next week, first of all, to give my communications team time to properly curate and edit that interview, but also because I believe there is a more timely message that is needed this week. By the time you are reading this, I presume Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, will have given his speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. I am very purposely writing this before such a speech has been delivered or pre-speech teasers on its content have been circulated. I am, therefore, obviously writing it before I know the market reaction to the speech (stock or bond market). This is on purpose. I do not want the focus to be on what is or is not said at Jackson Hole today, or what the market does or does not do after such speech. I want Dividend Cafe to be about the extraordinary problem that we even care about so much, to begin with about this speech. Far more than anything that is said today is the fact that there even is such a focus on it to begin with. And this hype, this prioritization, this captivation in financial markets, with one man giving one speech on one day, is symbolic of where I feel so much has gone wrong. And what THAT is and what it specifically means to you is the subject of this week's Dividend Cafe. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Louis Gave, founding partner and CEO of @GavekalResearch, tells DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Sherman and Samuel Lau that the price shifts of three key assets is not a “dead-cat bounce” but “the start of a new trend” in markets that will require ... Read More

本集主題：「中國的亞洲夢：一帶一路全面解讀，對台灣、全球將帶來什麼威脅和挑戰」新書介紹 專訪企劃：張燕宜 內容簡介： 一帶一路全面解讀 對台灣、全球將帶來什麼威脅和挑戰？ 兩千年前，中國以駱駝經由絲綢之路運送貨物到歐洲，今日，北京要用現代運輸工具，賦予這條古老道路新生命。 2013年，中國國家主席習近平提出「一帶一路」倡議，就是絲綢之路經濟帶和21世紀海上絲綢之路，透過資金、技術和生產力，將亞非歐大陸與太平洋、印度洋，和中國連接起來。習近平正野心勃勃地透過西向與南向政策，發展中國的新外交策略，企圖主導亞洲政治、經濟與軍事戰略地位。 本書作者唐米樂是亞洲問題專家、資深分析師與記者，旅居中國十餘年，為了了解亞洲國家對一帶一路的真實看法，他的足跡遍佈湄公河河谷和中亞草原，採訪經理人、中國官員、百姓，甚至解放軍，對習近平推行一帶一路的看法，也到中亞、南亞實地採訪，並分析當前局勢，為讀者理解一帶一路帶來的問題，提供新角度：中國試圖再次崛起，對亞洲和全球的未來意味著什麼？ 一帶一路一旦完成，將涵蓋65個國家、44億人口，以及40%的經濟產值。從湄公河流域到中亞草原，中國正通過新道路、新鐵路、新水壩、新電網吸引鄰國。估計2030年時，中國經濟體將高於美國的兩倍。作者認為，一帶一路具有地緣政治和經濟雙重意義，而且地緣政治意義高於經濟意義。當所有道路都通往北京，現代的朝貢體系也將形成。中國的貿易和投資雖然對鄰國是很大的機會，但也是威脅。中國建設的基礎設施，雖然能幫助貧窮國家，但中國的崛起，也可能使鄰國變成中國的附屬國。 不管你喜不喜歡，台灣已被劃歸在一帶一路倡議之中。一帶一路將對台灣、全球帶來什麼威脅和挑戰？本書全面解讀。 作者簡介：唐米樂（Tom Miller） 牛津大學英語系學士、倫敦大學亞非學院碩士，現任香港《中國經濟季刊》執行編輯、Gavekal Research資深分析師，曾任《南華早報》駐北京記者。唐米樂旅居中國十四年，現來往於英國、亞洲，著作《十億民工進城來》。

Mientras que Argentina fue elegido por Revista Time y Eurasia Group como uno de los 11 países del mundo que mejor sortearon la pandemia, Brasil ya es el segundo país con más fallecidos por coronavirus por debajo de Estados Unidos. La fuga de capitaes en Brasil está alcanzando niveles que no se habían visto desde la década de 1990. La producción automovilística está en su nivel más bajo desde la década de 1950. La consultora Gavekal Research comparó a Brasil con un predio en llamas, en su último informe para inversionistas, y dice el reporte: "En este momento, es mejor dejar Brasil a los especialistas, los locos, los oportunistas de largo plazo o aquellos que no tienen otras opciones”. Columna del 13-6-20 en "Conexión Uno" con Franco Merlo.

Subscribe to our weekly e-newsletter: blog.evergreengavekal.com Last Friday subscribers read Gavekal Research's piece, Investing for a New Cold War. Today on the Evergreen Exchange, listen to Evergreen CEO Tyler Hay interview Gavekal founder Louis Gave on this topic and more, complete with thought-provoking debate and lively banter. The conversation between Tyler and Louis provides clarity on an issue that has dominated the news during Trump's presidency: will China surpass the U.S. as the world's greatest economic superpower? Louis built his career in Hong Kong and was once even called one of the “smartest men in Asia” by Bloomberg. If you have a WSJ subscription, read his most recent interview with Barron’s: bit.ly/2xIXPbn Listeners can skip through the sections indicated below if they wish to revisit points or only hear certain topics. 3:00 Is this the new face of war? 4:15 The current tensions with China are not the beginning of WWIII, but rather a new cold war. 5:45 Chinese people’s view of the U.S. was one of admiration until recent rhetoric portrayed the U.S.’s overarching goal as stifling China’s economic growth. 11:30 Trump has shifted his focus sharply toward trade tensions to detract attention from more concrete unfulfilled campaign promises—literally concrete ones, such as the border wall. 14:00 The tech sector wanted better intellectual property rights enforcement; they were not prepared to be the battleground. 17:00 More Chinese young adults are attending college than their American counterparts, and there are approximately 10x as many pursuing degrees in S.T.E.M. (science, technology, engineering, mathematics) fields. 25:00 China fell into communism after 125 years of social unrest, as a protection against cultural instability. Now it has become apparent that China is a profoundly capitalistic country on which socialism was imposed. We are experiencing the correction of that misalignment. 38:00 There is no way to know what a potential deal with China would look like, as it will be completely dependent on who Trump runs against in the 2020 election. If it’s Biden, Trump would seek to demonstrate superior foreign negotiation skill. If it’s Bernie, he’d seek a deal that reinvigorates loyalty with the working class. The trade war is a tool for his reelection campaign. 41:00 We must decide whether or not we believe that central banks create wealth. Does encouraging one to spend tomorrow’s money today promote sustainable growth? 46:00 Increasingly, countries who trade with China are basing their currency against the renminbi, negating the trade of U.S. dollars. It is possible that we are seeing the peak of the dollar. DISCLOSURE: This material has been prepared or is distributed solely for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Any opinions, recommendations, and assumptions included in this presentation are based upon current market conditions, reflect our judgment as of the date of this presentation, and are subject to change. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments involve risk including the loss of principal. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed and Evergreen makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Securities highlighted or discussed in this communication are mentioned for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation for these securities. Evergreen actively manages client portfolios and securities discussed in this communication may or may not be held in such portfolios at any given time. Louis Gave’s has an equity ownership in Evergreen. Louis’ views and opinions are his own, and are not necessarily the views of Evergreen.

In this episode of the Keiser Report, Max and Stacy ask whether China is the wise man pointing at the moon, while America is the idiot looking at the finger. Charles Gave, founding partner and chairman of Gavekal Research, believes China is playing the long game, and the West will be left behind. In the second half, Max continues his interview with Constantin Gurdgiev of Macroview.eu about deglobalization. They look at household formation numbers, trade wars against allies, and China’s lead on technology, like artificial intelligence.

Tom Miller, senior Asia analyst and managing editor at Gavekal Research, joins Jeremy and Kaiser to discuss his new book, China’s Asian Dream: Empire Building Along the New Silk Road. Miller combines policy analysis with his on-the-ground reporting from over a dozen countries to better understand China’s most ambitious foreign policy move since the “reform and opening up” that started in 1978: Xi Jinping’s signature Belt and Road Initiative. With its substantial financial backing and global reach, the Belt and Road Initiative has the potential to reshape the international order and accelerate China’s development as a world leader. Miller brings clarity to the vast and seemingly undefinable policy, detailing China’s desire to create “a network of interdependence,” hone in on issues of national security, and use international development to bolster the country’s growth. Recommendations: Jeremy: Ear to Asia, a podcast by the Asia Institute of the University of Melbourne, features academics who examine an array of topics about Asia. In one episode, Chinese literature specialist Anne McLaren discusses her research into the folk ecology of the Lower Yangtze Delta, particularly the rhythmic song cycles sung by workers there. Tom: Guo Xiaolu’s 郭小橹 memoir, Nine Continents: A Memoir In and Out of China, depicts the author’s difficult beginnings growing up in a poor fishing village on the East China Sea, her later navigation of modern China at the Beijing Film Academy as a young woman, and her outsider’s perspective on London, where she now resides. Her other novel, A Concise Chinese-English Dictionary for Lovers, is also worth a read. Kaiser: Väsen is a Swedish folk trio that plays a viola, a 12-string guitar, and and a nyckelharpa (a “keyed fiddle”). It brings together rock, jazz, and classical influences to discover a modern sound rooted in Swedish tradition.

No investor can afford to ignore geopolitics anymore. Understand why you need a geopolitical analysis framework and how to use it to your advantage. In our ‘Things I Got Wrong’ segment, Louis Gave, Co-founder of Gavekal Research shares his errors about the liberalization of capital in China. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices