Stuff That Interests Me

“They will never see their gold again, just as they do not see their own ears.”Josef StalinGold's strength is that its value exists in and of itself. It's nobody else's liability. Unlike money in the bank or a bond, it carries no promise from a third party, and its value is not dependent on the creditworthiness of any issuer or guarantor. Hand it to someone else and its value is transferred. It is a “bearer” asset, effectively owned by whoever has possession of it. For this reason gold has been the target of many a heist. Quickly resmelt it, and its provenance is very hard to prove.So there is one obvious problem with gold: that is keeping it safe. It's all very well having a pot of gold, but if somebody comes along and takes it from you, as Alexander did from the Persians, or the Conquistadors from the Incas, then you're left with nothing at all.When the Spanish Civil War broke out in 1936, the Soviet Union, under Joseph Stalin, supported the Spanish Republican government. The Nazis supported their opponents, the revolutionary fascist forces led by General Franco. At the time Spanish gold reserves, some 635 tonnes, were the fourth largest in the world.Much of that treasure had been accumulated during WWI, when Spain had stayed neutral. Selling stuff to the British seems to have been the really big earner: 70% of Spanish gold holdings were British sovereigns.With Franco just 20 miles from the capital, the Republicans were on the verge of defeat. Never mind the fascists, there were also rumours that Catalan separatists had hatched plans to take the gold from Madrid to Barcelona. All that gold was at risk.Finance minister, Juan Negrín, and Prime Minister, Francisco Largo Caballero, leant on President Azaña to sign a secret decree to move the gold - some 10,000 cases - to a place “which in his [Negrín's] opinion offers the best security”. Azaña signed and the gold was moved, starting the next day, to Cartajena on the south coast, as far from Franco's armies as possible. The Spanish soldiers who transported the cases thought they were lifting munitions. A fifth of it was then shipped to Marseille where it was traded for French francs, which the Republicans used to fund their side of the war. The rest, 510 tonnes, would be sent to Joseph Stalin in Moscow for safekeeping.Even if Bolshevik sympathisers, what were Negrín and Caballero thinking? The Russians had already demonstrated that they had no qualms about seizing other people's gold. In 1916, the Romanian government sent its treasury of 91 tonnes of gold to Tsarist Russia for safekeeping, worried that it was vulnerable to the Axis powers when Romania had just joined WWI on the side of the Entente. Shortly afterwards, during the Great October Revolution, communists, led by Lenin, seized power, sequestered the gold and refused to give it back. Though small amounts were returned in 1935, 1956, and 2008, “as a gesture of goodwill”, the large majority was retained. As you can imagine, it has been something of a sore spot in diplomatic relations between the two nations ever since.It seems Negrín and Caballero did not know the story. In any case, Caballero actually wrote to Stalin asking if he would “agree to the deposit of approximately 500 tonnes of gold.” Two days later, he got a reply from the Soviet leader, not previously known for his prompt responses. No surprise: Stalin would be “glad” to take the gold.Buying gold or silver to protect yourself in these ‘interesting' times? The bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.Alexander Orlov was the Russian agent in charge of transporting the booty. Negrín gave him fake documents to show he was an US official from the Bank of America, in case he should be stopped. Negrín, who, remember, was finance minister, had thought Bank of America was the US central bank. That would be the Federal Reserve. Russian agent Orlov didn't realise either. It's extraordinary.Four Russian ships came to Cartagena to collect the bounty, and the gold was loaded on. There was a discrepancy of 100 cases between Orlov and Spanish treasurer Mendez Aspe's number: Aspe said 7,800 cases, Orlov 7,900. Orlov said nothing. He reported the discrepancy to his superiors, who told him, “Do not worry about figures. Everything will be counted anew in Moscow. Do not mention your figure to anybody.” Aspe didn't even get a receipt off Orlov (who had been instructed not to give him one). “Don't worry, my friend,” said Orlov, “it will be issued by the State Bank of the Soviet Union, when everything is checked and weighed.” We will never know whether Orlov miscounted or whether those 100 boxes went missing.It took them three nights to load the four ships. The Russians then left Cartagena for Odessa in the Black Sea, escorted by the Spanish as far as Italy. From Odessa it was loaded onto a freight train bound for Moscow. "If all the boxes of gold that we piled up on the wharfs of Odessa were to be placed here side by side,” said one of the officials. “They would completely cover up the Red Square".When the gold arrived in Moscow, Stalin celebrated with a banquet at the Kremlin. “They will never see their gold again”, he laughed. “Just as they do not see their own ears.”The Spanish eventually got their receipt: for 5,619 standard cases and 126 damaged. Some distance below both Aspe and Orlov's figure. But three months later the Russians completed the audit, calculating that the shipments totalled 510 tonnes of gold coins and ingots, 90% pure, thus around 460 tonnes of pure gold. There were gold coins from across Europe and Latin America, especially those British sovereigns and Portuguese escudos, but also Spanish pesetas, French, Swiss and Belgian francs, German marks,, Russian rubles, Austrian schillings, Dutch guilders, and Mexican, Argentine and Chilean pesos. The numismatic value of the coins was higher than their gold content.The following year Spain met with a currency crisis. With exceptional chutzpah, even by the standards of politicians, Republicans blamed the inflation on the free market. Nothing to do with the absence of all that gold!Later, the Franco regime was happy to let the story of the "Moscow gold" stolen by Russia spread, as part of its anti-communist propaganda. And yet it appears sell orders from Negrín were actually carried out in 1937 and 1938, for which Spain received pounds, dollars and francs. Spain also received planes, tanks, machine guns, artillery, rifles, cartridges, food and fuel from Russia. The Soviets demanded some compensation for what they had sent during the war, but it's believed that aside from various expenses, the Soviets did not abuse their position and defraud the Spanish. Ultimately then, most of the gold went, one way or another, on the cost of the civil war. Such is the way with war. It is expensive.And just a couple or three years later, as Nazi forces advanced through Europe, the farce of transporting gold would be repeated many times over, and across the continent.Stories like this fill the pages of The Secret History of Gold (although this one didn't actually make the cut).The Secret History of Gold is available to pre-order at Amazon, Waterstones and all good bookshops. I hear the audiobook, read by me, is excellent. The book comes out on August 28. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comThe idea behind Dolce Far Niente was to create a portfolio of low-risk investments for today's market conditions, that you can buy and, pretty much, forget about. You don't have to keep checking prices every day. Hence “Dolce Far Niente” - “the sweetness of doing nothing.” No worries would be the Australian translation.Asset allocation is WAY more important than individual stock-picking. I could pick the best biotech company in the world, but if biotech is in a bear market, I almost needn't bother. I'm better off out of the sector. But similarly, if a sector is in a full-on bull market, even pigs fly.The starting point for the portfolio, which we began on October 1, 2023, was as follows.* Gold: 15%* Bitcoin: 5%* Special situations: 10% (the ”fun” part of the portfolio, for example some of the smallcaps I write about on here)* Uranium: 5% (reduced to 2.5% as things got frothy)* Oil and Gas: 10%* Bonds and Wealth Preservation: 20%* Equities (35%)* UK & Europe (20%)* US (25%)* Smaller cos and private equity (30%)* Asia (15%)* Japan (5%)* EMs (5%)No allocation to real estate.Please like and share this post. It helps :)Since that October 2023 starting point, certain assets - gold, bitcoin and US equities - now account for far greater percentages, with energy, bonds and wealth preservation not having done so well.If you are starting this portfolio now, I would still recommend sticking to the original allocation and letting things grow.Really, I should re-allocate, but I don't want to sell any bitcoin and I don't want to sell any gold. In fact, to be honest, there is a very strong case for just owning bitcoin and being done with everything else. But that wouldn't be balanced and that's not what this portfolio is about.The only change we have made since October 2023 was to reduce uranium from 5% to 2.5% in February 2024. Uranium felt a bit frothy was the reason. More a gut- than evidence-based decision, and it proved the right one. I'm going to make one, quite major change to the portfolio today - in the equities department. More on this in a moment.Lastly, do as I say, not as I do. In my own portfolio, my allocation to bonds and wealth preservation is tiny: maybe 2%. I am overweight gold, bitcoin and special situations (smallcaps mostly).At some stage, I will get my comeuppance as a result, and it won't be the first time. Then I'll swear to change my habits, and then I will - for a bit - and then I won't. But a more sensible investor would keep their portfolio to the above allocation.Let's examine things in a bit more detail1. Gold (15%)It's done very well. Up about 80% since we started the portfolio.My firm belief is that everybody should own some gold in their portfolio. Especially now.(If you do not yet own any, my guide to investing in gold is here. If you are looking to buy gold or silver, the bullion dealer I recommend is the Pure Gold Company.There is also, of course, the soon-to-be definitive book on the subject. Here it is on Amazon, and Waterstones is currently running an offer.

I'm delighted to announce my new book, The Secret History of Gold - Myth, Money, Politics and Power, published by Penguin Life. It tells the epic tale of humanity's oldest and most treasured currency – from its explosive cosmic origins to its role in the power games of modern geopolitics.Watch the unboxing above

This week I was listening to Merryn Talks Money. My old boss and great friend, Merryn Somerset Webb, was discussing portfolio allocation - which assets should make up the 40 in a 60:40 bond-to-equity portfolio - with Nataliia Lipikhana, executive director at JP Morgan . Merryn asked if bitcoin should be one of the assets to include, alongside gold. Lipikhana, who, until then, had spoken widely, fluently and knowledgeably about a range of subjects, suddenly stonewalled.“We don't cover it so we can't talk about it,” she said.Awkward pause.Merryn laughs. “At all?”“No,” says Lipikhana.Another pause.“Ok,” says Merryn. “Totally understand,” and she changed the subject.This is a symptom of something much bigger that has been at play throughout the institutional world, and not just in the UK, since the emergence of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.They've been shadowbanned.We know of course about the UK's Financial Conduct Authority, how its regulations went against the pronouncements of various Chancellors, and how it effectively excluded UK citizens from the sector. Something similar has long been happening at the institutional level. “Most private banks will not accept bitcoin ETF orders for their clients, despite being able to deal with elective professionals,” a fund manager friend (who prefers to stay anonymous) tells me. “This applies in countries where there is no ban because the bank will have links to London. Even in the US, the traditional institutions will ban bitcoin internally.”Here's a list of the biggest holders of the iShares gold ETF. Many of banking's biggest names are there.Now here's a list of the iShares bitcoin ETF's biggest holders. There is nothing like the same institutional weight.(Goldman and Morgan Stanley will be market making on behalf of hedge fund clients)“Lipikhana probably feels she might get the sack if she comments on bitcoin,” my fund manager friend continues. “So she doesn't”.You know my saying, “A bubble is a bull market in which you don't have a position”. For years now, banks have been talking their clients away from this sector, often using that argument that it's a bubble. This pre-dates the ETFs by ten years or more.Wall Street and the City don't like bitcoin because they didn't get there first. Smelly private investors did. They missed out on this epic opportunity and, rather than embrace it, they ignore it.They don't control it. They can't manipulate it. Don't talk about bitcoin. Perhaps it'll go away.Well, it hasn't and it won't. It is here to stay.Now with the emergence of the both the ETFs and the bitcoin treasury companies, bitcoin is edging its way further and further into the financial mainstream.“You get bitcoin at the price you deserve,” runs the saying. Ain't it so.What this means for investors is that there is a huge wall of institutional money that is still to come into the sector. It will eventually. Bitcoin is the most technologically advanced money in history. Now that real estate is gone as a vehicle to protect against currency debasement (too highly legislated and taxed), the need for an effective savings vehicle is only greater. Bitcoin is the best savings vehicle there is.I love gold. You know I do. I think it has an enormous strategic role to play in the coming years, and should play a part in every portfolio. But bitcoin appreciates by more. It beats stocks. It beats bonds. It beats commodities.But JP Morgan would rather not comment.If you enjoyed this post, please like or share - it helps :)PS Don't forget my brilliant book about bitcoin, if you want to learn more about the space. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

(I am sending this week's commentary early this week due to travel)Dear Chancellor,Me again.I am the author of Bitcoin: The Future of Money? (2014), generally agreed to the first book on bitcoin from a recognised publisher.I write with regard to the proposed sale of the UK's bitcoin. Since bitcoin was first introduced in 2009 - invented in reaction to the loose monetary policies of the Global Financial Crisis - bank bail outs, quantitative easing, zero interest policies etc - and the economic injustices they created, the protocol has grown from nothing to a market cap above $2 trillion. A whole new economy has emerged around the technology where none previously existed, providing countless opportunities for individuals, entrepreneurs and nations alike.Initially the domain of a few coders, it is now finding mass adoption at the corporate and even national level. The US is recognizing the digital asset's importance, as it introduces its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, while China, according to estimates, holds 190,000 coins.Initially, the UK was at the heart of the Bitcoin story. Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous inventor, wrote in British English, cited UK media, and many early meetups and conferences took place here. Chancellors George Osborne and Rishi Sunak both expressed their desire for the UK to become a global hub for this emerging technology. But the FCA took an opposing view and made it increasingly difficult for UK citizens to participate, so that we have now fallen behind.Opinion about bitcoin is divided. Those who use the technology regularly believe it is not just likely, but inevitable, that it will become the world's dominant monetary network. Many others – typically the older generation, economists or legacy finance – dismiss it as a bubble, often without having tested the tech in any meaningful way.Whichever side of the debate you fall on, the fact that Bitcoin has become the most desired digital asset in the world is indisputable.Among the many features that make bitcoin unique is that its supply is finite. With its estimated 61,000 confiscated bitcoins, the UK has been gifted an extraordinary opportunity. We now hold roughly 0.3% of total supply.I understand that politics demands a focus on the short term – the next Budget, the next election – but I urge you to approach your decision with long-term vision. Please consult with people who regularly use the technology. Do not make this decision based solely on advice from people who never use bitcoin. Take Bulgaria, for example. In 2017, it sold all of its seized bitcoin to cover a short-term budget gap. Those coins today would be worth enough to eliminate the country's entire national debt. From a strategic perspective, the UK's bitcoin holdings represent a once-in-a-generation opportunity. As fiat currencies decline in purchasing power and the global economy moves toward digital and AI-driven systems, this asset could help Britain re-establish itself as an economic superpower with significant geopolitical leverage and monetary independence.An opportunity of this kind is not to be thrown away lightly.Once those coins are sold, we will never be able to buy them back.If bitcoin becomes a hundred trillion dollar network – as some project – the UK's share could prove transformational. That may sound fanciful today, but every surprise in bitcoin's history has been to the upside.There is also your personal political legacy to consider.You would be the Chancellor who sold Britain's bitcoin.That will be how people remember you – just as Gordon Brown, for all else he did, is remembered primarily for needlessly selling Britain's gold at the bottom of the market. For the rest of your life, every timebBitcoin rises in price, people will look at what you sold our coins for and say: “This is how much she lost us.” You are consigning yourself to that fate.Do you want that to be your legacy?So once again, I implore you: take advice from people who understand this technology and its potential. Don't just listen to nocoiners.If you sell bitcoin for fiat you are swapping a superior asset for an inferior one. It is that simple.The trade might bring short-term benefit, but it does nothing to address the underlying structural issues facing this country. If, however, you hold on to the bitcoin – and understand how to integrate it into policy – perhaps create a UK Strategic Reserve - you may find it solves many of our problems.As bitcoiners often say, “bitcoin fixes this.”I hope you read and consider this letter with an open-mind.Yours sincerely,Dominic FrisbyAuthor of Bitcoin: The Future of Money?Writer of The Flying Frisby newsletterPS Please like, share - all that stuff. Thank you! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

At Freedom Fest 2025 last month, I joined a very sensible panel - grown up people saying intelligent things - in a gold vs bitcoin debate, from which I came way thinking, “Oh, that was quite good”. It has just been released, so I thought I would share it for your Sunday thought piece.As always if you enjoy the discussion, please like it and share. It he… This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

I wanted to take a look at gold today.I'm going to dust off my powers of divination — or as they call it in the City, technical analysis - and see if we can figure out where it is going next.As things got frothy back in April, I argued that the market was probably due a breather. The summer is usually gold's weakest season. Why this should be I don't know, but it is. You'll often find it makes a low in May or June, then re-tests that low in July or August, then things pick up in the autumn or fall, as our more literal cousins call it. In any case, I'm pleased to report that gold has basically range-traded, or consolidated, since the frothy days of April, between $3,500 and $3,100. The $3,000 level has more than held, which makes me wonder if we shall ever see gold with a $2,000 handle ever again. Unless there is a 2008 or Covid-style panic, I rather doubt we will.Meanwhile, the RSI (see the bottom panel below) has come off, meaning the heat has come out of the market, which is good.Since the US confiscation of Russian assets in 2022, pretty much every pull back to 50-day moving average (red line) has been bought, and they continue to be bought. The average is now flattening out, as you would expect with this summer consolidation, rather as it did late last year. Some sideways consolidation is good. Ideally, you want to see the short-, medium- and long-term moving averages all flatten and converge. There often follows a big move higher.The long-term moving averages (1 year and so on - not shown here) still have a bit of catching up to do (they are around $2,850 at the minute), which they will and fairly quickly as the gold price continues this sideways action.We also have something of a triangle forming (see blue lines) - with lower highs and higher lows. Triangles are seen as continuation patterns. In other words, whatever was the direction going into the formation will be the direction coming out. Up, that is to say. I rather think this triangle will complete just as the moving averages converge.When you look at gold against other currencies, the same process can be seen: a summer consolidation after an excellent winter and spring. If you are in any doubt as to whether you should own gold or not, let me answer that for you in the words of the former HSBC fund manager Charlie Morris, who now writes Atlas Pulse, one of the best newsletters out there - (you should subscribe it's free). “Gold should be the cornerstone of an investment portfolio,” he says. “It is remarkable how few professional investors understand this”.Charlie may have a point. Look how underweight gold western portfolios are. Below 2%. Nuts.The Trump administration is going to run enormous deficits. It is not attempting to hide the fact. The same goes for the Starmer administration in the UK. The Labour backbenchers, who now seem to control policy, will not allow reduced spending. We saw that last week. Most EU nations have not got their spending under control. It means further declines in the purchasing power of the dollar, pound and euro are inevitable. Gold is your protection. What's more, as demonstrated by the enormous buying coming out of Asia from Shanghai Cooperation Nations, China especially, it is clear gold is becoming a highly important strategic asset again. It is this buying, plus some huge options trading in China, that is driving this bull market, and it began shortly after, as I say, the seizure of Russian US dollar assets. Metals Daily's Ross Norman, whose track record forecasting the gold price is second to none, tells me: “We are confident that there is significant unreported central bank gold buying which, coupled with some pretty heady options plays from within China, accounts primarily for a near doubling in the gold price over the last 18 months or so. He goes on:The days when central banks telegraphed their moves in advance in the interest of transparency are long gone (thank you Gordon) and they are far more nuanced and opportunistic in their approach. With Asian central banks very much under-weight gold reserves, and energised by a growing debt crisis, further fuelled by the trend to reduce dollar holdings and you have a perfect set-up for a continuing gold bull run. At the moment the East invests in gold while the West divests which actually sums up the last 30 years between those hemispheres.This bull market is consolidating. It is not over. Whether it's because of de-dollarisation or your nation's deficit spending, there is demand for gold, which is going to send the price higher. It may be an analogue asset in a digital world. But you will be glad you own it. Until next time,DominicIf buying gold or silver to protect yourself in these ‘interesting' times, the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.Some recent articles which may be of interest: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

NB Somebody on social media is impersonating me again, sliding in to DMs, soliciting investment. Please ignore, block, report etc. Here they are on Substack.Right, here we go.Dear Chancellor Reeves“Revenue cannot be derived unless the land is productive.”— Ali ibn Abi Talib, the fourth caliphI hope you have a moment to consider what I have to say.My name is Dominic Frisby. Among other things, I am the author of a well-received book on the history of taxation, Daylight Robbery: How Tax Shaped Our Past and Will Change Our Future.I am writing to you about Stamp Duty — a tax that is causing stagnation, where you need growth.At present, if I wish to buy a house, I must first sell other assets to fund the purchase. This incurs capital gains tax. Then, on buying the property, I face another sizeable tax in the form of Stamp Duty. So I am taxed twice on the same money.The alternative is simply to stay put and do nothing, thereby paying no tax at all. Unsurprisingly, this is what most people do, which is why turnover in the housing market is so poor.How much economic activity is lost, when I stay put?* The stocks and shares I might have sold miss out on the fresh investment they would otherwise receive from their new buyer — investment so vital for businesses to grow.* All the economic activity that follows a house purchase vanishes: estate agents, conveyancing solicitors, surveyors, removals companies, builders, decorators, materials suppliers, architects, furniture shops, DIY stores.* I do not take out a new mortgage or insurance policy, nor hire tradesmen to upgrade kitchens, bathrooms or gardens, nor set up new utilities, broadband contracts or local services.* I do not trigger a purchase chain, meaning the person I would have bought from does not buy somewhere else, and all the activity that would create is lost too.* Nor do I relocate for work, missing new job opportunities, so the economy loses the productivity boost of people moving closer to better jobs.When I stay put, there is no revenue at all for the Exchequer — neither from Stamp Duty, nor from VAT on all these goods and services, nor from increased corporation tax on profits, nor from higher Income Tax on increased earnings, nor from the local spending that supports countless jobs and wages. Instead, there is stagnation where there could have been growth.Stamp Duty, largely a creation of the Tories, has immobilised the country.Britain desperately needs growth. Growth requires turnover. The best way to encourage turnover is to remove barriers to trade. Taxes — whether tariffs or duties, whatever form they take — are the biggest barriers of all.When Rishi Sunak temporarily reduced Stamp Duty during Covid, we saw exactly this effect: turnover increased, economic activity surged. Revenue to the Exchequer followed.A permanent removal of Stamp Duty would trigger a powerful boost not just to the property market but to the entire economy, meaning the government, too, would have more money to spend on whatever it sees fit. There is so much pent up demand, the resulting economic growth might even be enough to save this government at the next election.What's more, the Tories imposed these duties, so it is an opportunity to score some points against their failure.It would, quite literally, get Britain moving again.Counter-intuitive as it may seem, the golden rule of taxation is that lower taxes and fewer taxes lead to higher revenues. History shows this time and again.In the words of John F KennedyIt is a paradoxical truth that tax rates are too high today and tax revenues are too low and the soundest way to raise the revenues in the long run is to cut the rates now.I hope you will give this serious thought.With kind regards,Yours sincerely,Dominic FrisbyPS If you enjoyed this letter, please like, share and all that stuff. It helps.You can find more on this subject in this video:Why not upgrade?If you are buying gold or silver to protect yourself in these ‘interesting' times - and I urge you to own gold, given how governments are debasing currency - the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.Finally, ICYMI, here is this week's mid-week piece: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comMany thanks for completing my weekend polls (here they are if you missed them: paying subscribers / non-paying). Your answers were extremely useful: roughly the right amount of content, stick with the audio, the balance of investment ideas and other stuff is about right, and the price too is about right (interestingly, paying subscribers thought that, non-paying less so — that put a smile on my face). Also: keep writing about what I know.You're a bit more equivocal about the video content. There are more gold than bitcoin bugs in the readership, with a healthy number are in the “own both” camp.And so many of you joined my Comedy Substack, it became one of Substack Humor's fastest movers. Yippee. Thank you!Today I am going to tell you about my seven largest investment positions.Take note: the asset allocation I advocate is the Dolce Far Niente portfolio. This is 15% in gold, 5% in bitcoin, and we have a large allocation to global equities, especially the US. It also has a 10% allocation to risky/fun investments: small caps, special situations and so on (the kind of flutters I write about here). The reason for this allocation is to minimise risk and any damage caused by losses.Do as I say, not as I do and all that. My personal allocation does not fully correspond to the Dolce Far Niente, partly for lack of discipline, partly because I have a greater appetite for risk and will stomach bad losses, if they come around, partly because I am overweight bitcoin.My largest positions As I am sure you know, my two largest positions are in bitcoin and gold. In my view everyone should have an allocation to these assets. Given the debasement of currency taking place worldwide, the greater risk is not owning them. On which note …If you want to buy gold or silver to protect yourself in these interesting times, the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here.But we will put those to one side. After bitcoin and gold, my seven largest positions are:

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comOh, my goodness me. I don't think I've ever seen volatility like it.We have a huge speculative bubble on our hands, and it's popping.What's more, this bubble is full of chancers, charlatans and chief executive officers.The Mail has got onto the story. That is not a good sign. If I told you ten days ago that the price of a share you just bought would rise from 6p to 40p in a week, you'd be pretty happy.Then again, if I told you on Monday that something you owned was going to drop by 60% the following day, you'd be pretty unhappy.That's what happened with the UK-listed bitcoin treasury companies.Nobody said it would be easy.Today we are going to try and make some sense of what is going on. We have a comprehensive list of all the UK companies jumping on this nutty bandwagon. And, most importantly, we consider what to do next.Let's start with a timely reminder: owning a speculative bitcoin treasury company is not the same as owning bitcoin. One is a crazy speculation, the other is the future money system of the world. Bitcoin treasury stocks ≠ bitcoinI hope that is clear.Now a rant.The Great British FCA Crypto FarceI'm looking at the price of Coinsilium (AQUIS:COIN) this morning. It is ranging from 60p to 30p, i.e. doubling and halving. This situation means the beloved UK market makers might be creaming off enough money to keep them in caviar and truffles for the foreseeable future, but the ordinary retail investor is getting hammered.In the course of 7 trading days, Coinsilium has gone from 6p to 90p to 30p.The bitcoin price, meanwhile, is pretty much unchanged.This situation is almost entirely a creation of the FCA, with its decision to “protect” UK investors from the dangers of cryptocurrencies. That protection began in 2020 when bitcoin was $5,000. Today it's $105,000. That's a $100,000 per coin increase—a 21x or 2,000% gain—UK investors were protected from.Remember UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak spinning his “Britcoin” BS?“It's my ambition to make the UK a global hub for cryptoasset technology, and the measures we've outlined today will help to ensure firms can invest, innovate and scale up in this country.We want to see the businesses of tomorrow – and the jobs they create – here in the UK, and by regulating effectively we can give them the confidence they need to think and invest long-term.This is part of our plan to ensure the UK financial services industry is always at the forefront of technology and innovation.”Nobody told the FCA! How was any of that even remotely possible when the FCA had banned the sale of crypto derivatives to UK consumers, and effectively regulated cryptoasset technology out of existence in the UK?Did the two departments even speak before he trotted out that rollocks?Of course they didn't. They are different departments.It's as though the UK government is inherently incompetent.Remember UK Chancellor George Osborne publicising himself buying bitcoin at an ATM? The FCA made ATMs illegal.Remind me. Who voted for the FCA? Or indeed Ofcom? Or Ofsted?Why do these bodies have such extraordinary power?It's enough to make you a libertarian.In any case, we now have this situation of extraordinary pent-up demand, built up over many years, with hundreds of billions of pounds in ISAs and pensions wanting exposure. The result is this insane volatility in UK bitcoin treasury companies.Smarter Web Company (AQUS:SWC) went from 2.5p to above 600p, giving it a market cap over a billion. It has just £45 million in assets. Great work, FCA.Today it's sitting just below 300p.Japan has similarly prohibitive anti-bitcoin regulations, and has thereby created the market leader in this second wave of bitcoin treasury companies, Metaplanet (3350:TYO). (Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) was the leader in phase one.)The Japanese company announced this week that it has raised another $500 million, with which it is going to pay down its 0% debt and buy more bitcoins. Why is it paying down its debt? Presumably to clean up its balance sheet so it can raise further capital on better terms to buy more bitcoin (it has targeted 1% of total supply, which would be 210,000 bitcoin). The Japanese market is starved of bitcoin access. Metaplanet is exploiting this situation.Despite a flat bitcoin price, there was a worldwide sell-off of treasury companies starting on Monday. The sell-off coincided, as these things always seem to, with coverage in the mainstream press. In this case, the Mail marked the top with a piece on the Smarter Web Company.Pretty much all the treasury sh1tcos are now down 50–70%. Is that it? Game over? Or was that just phase one?I've seen this play out many times over the years. I've seen it with uranium sh1tcos in 2006, gold junkcos, silver rubbishcos, graphite flybynights, helium hotaircos and moreIt doesn't take a genius to work out where all this is going, and a lot of people are going to make a lot of money. A lot more are going to lose a lot of money. These things are not necessarily going to zero - they will have bitcoin on their balance sheet. But when bitcoin has one of its biennial corrections, they are going to get crucified.But we are also going to see a new corporate model emerge as a result.It's dotcom, basically. But which companies will be the Amazons and Microsofts? And which are Pets.com and ClickMango?Every day we are hearing news of another company “pivoting” - who invented that awful word? - into a bitcoin treasury company. It is all happening very quickly.Here's a list of the UK companies getting in on the game. Then we will look at what to do next .Meet the Players. Should I say, '‘Monkeys”?In addition to Smarter Web Company (AQUIS:SWC) and Coinsilium (AQUIS:COIN) we have:

I am writing today's dispatch from Prague Airport, on my way back to Blighty.What a splendid city Prague is, and what a lovely bunch the Czechs are.It feels like this is still very much a high-trust society. Twice I left my bag in public places – full of very nickable laptop, passport and other gubbins – and both times I came back to find my bag untouched, but safely put to one side. At night the city felt safe. It was very clean – I actually started looking out for litter and I couldn't see any anywhere, whether in the centre or the suburbs, where I was staying. I always think litter – or lack thereof – is a good indicator of how much people really care about their surroundings, how loyal to and invested in their area they feel, and, indeed, how well brought up they are.The Czechs were lovely: polite, hard-working, respectful, full of ambition and drive, and good looking.The story is that Hitler went to university in Prague and loved the place that so much that, when the Nazis invaded in 1939, he ordered that the city should not be bombed but preserved. I heard the story last time I was here, and heard it again this time. But then I just fact-checked this story and apparently it is total rollocks - Hitler never went to university anywhere, nor did he visit Prague. Perhaps the city survived because the Czechs decided not put up any resistance, so the Nazis went unopposed, which meant they didn't need to bomb anything.In any case, the city is preserved and you can feel the history as you stroll about the stunning centre. It makes you cry for all the cities that did get flattened in WWII and the memories that disappeared with them.The food was lovely. So was the beer. I even had a couple. All in all, travel, board and lodging cost half of what they do in London, I'd say, at a guess.Just as I did last time I was here, I came away enamoured with the place, feeling that I must come back soon.As for the conference itself, BTC Prague, there were a few GenXers and Boomers – including my new friends Larry Lepard (check out his book), James Lavish (check out his fund) and George Bodine (check out his art) – as well as myself – but 85%+ of attendees were under 50, I'd say, with a large chunk under 30.If you are young, starting out and wondering what to do, I would urge you to get involved with the Bitcoin movement. There are so many different ways to do so, depending on where your talents, skills or interests lie. You can be artist, scientist or journalist, engineer, entrepreneur, traveller or surfer-dude. It really doesn't matter. You'll find a path that suits you. It all feels so dynamic and full of opportunity. It's brim full of doers. Everyone is so supportive. There is plenty of capital to invest. You can make quick progress.Another thing to note: there are a lot of extremely clever people in this movement. Average IQ levels in Bitcoin are, I've little doubt, much higher than you typically find elsewhere.Conversation, naturally, was dominated with talk of the bitcoin treasury companies, and the incredible price action we are seeing there. To use the baseball analogy, which innings of 9 are we in? I generally made the case that we are in perhaps 5 or 6, with Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) in 2020 having been innings one. Some of the old-timers - who, it has to be said, have missed this particular wave - dismissed it as the ICO or DEFI craze of this cycle. They may have a point.But James Van Straten, the bright young mind behind the transformation of Coinsilium (AQUIS:COIN), told me in no uncertain terms that, as far as the UK is concerned, ball one of innings one has only just be thrown. There is £1.2 trillion of capital in UK pensions and ISAs and, thanks to the FCAs anti-bitcoin rulings, several years of pent-up demand. We shall see.What's different between this and ICO/DeFi madness is that the bitcoin treasury companies are holding something real and strong, while the narrative is only just getting going.People were very kind about my presentation, and I got asked to do a second one the following day, which I hurriedly wrote. I'll share both with you as soon as I get the vids, but my main arguments were:* With the changing nature of the global workforce, the rise of the gig and freelance worker, especially the digital nomad (billions of people will soon be on the move), demand for borderless money and portable wealth is inevitably going to grow.* Save strong currencies; spend weak ones.* By investing in bitcoin (the currency), you benefit from the cumulative, combined IQ of everyone involved in Bitcoin (the movement).* With such extraordinary potential, the risk is not so much owning bitcoin as not owning it.As you would expect from someone with my chequered past, I threw in lots of jokes as well.Join this amazing movement.But the main event was the Michael Saylor presentation on Saturday afternoon.My goodness me, the 60-year-old former aerospace engineer has become a rock star. He was mobbed. He stood there in the entrance hall, patiently smiling for 90 minutes, with a circle of people around him 10-deep, all wanting selfies. The frenzy did not relent, and eventually his bodyguards had to usher him away so he could prepare for his presentation.That same presentation will no doubt be doing the rounds on the internet over the next few days, and I urge you to watch it, but I will summarise his main points here.Saylor, his usual intense, charismatic self, first observed just how far bitcoin has come over the past 12 months. Up about 70%, it has, yet again, outperformed gold, bonds, stocks and real estate. The White House has said it wants to make the US the bitcoin capital of the world. The new US administration is extremely pro-bitcoin – he went through the key players one by one. With the ETFs and increasing institutional adoption, bitcoin is altogether more normalised and legit.He spoke about how he wished he had got involved in 2013, when he first heard about bitcoin, rather than in 2020, but he also made the point that bitcoin still only makes up less than 1% of global capital and that this share will inevitably grow. 99% of global capital doesn't know about it yet and so, even buying now, you're ahead of 99% of capital.Then he began to speak about where this growing monetary network is going. Bitcoin will continue to outperform stocks, gold, bonds and real estate, as it inevitably grows to occupy a larger slice of the global capital pie. Twenty-one years from now, it's going to be $21 million a coin, he said. There is, therefore, an opportunity to change the destiny of your family for generations to come. You create the future, he said.To deal with the drawdowns and the crypto winters, be like a seasick sailor: keep your eyes on the horizon. On the bigger picture. Saylor outlined several strategies to grow your bitcoin position and showed how rich each would make you in 21 years. The lowest-risk method is to dollar cost average (DCA) – buy a set amount each month and each year. But to increase your gains, use leverage. Use it wisely of course: keep interest payments low, fixed and long duration. Otherwise, you risk debt servitude and will end up with nothing.The principle is to borrow weak currencies, which lose value, and use the money to buy the strongest currency of the lot, which will inevitably gain in value. The gains you make will be extraordinary.I urge you to watch the presentation when it comes out, as he details the different strategies – and then shows the different outcomes.Using:* DCA* Leverage* DCA + leverage* In the case of companies, issuing stock to buy bitcoin* Issuing stock and using DCA + leverageIt will turn you into a total bitcoin head, I guarantee.But that's all for today.I'll be back mid-week with more commentary. I'm attending Swen Lorenz's Weird Sh1t Investing Conference on Tuesday so there will no doubt be lots of good ideas in there. I'll also update you on my conversation the day before yesterday with Eric Semler, Chairman of bitcoin treasury company, Semlar Scientific (NASDQ:SMLR). Semlar has been eclipsed in performance by the (once) smallcap UK bitcoin treasury companies - Smarter Web Company (AQUIS:SWC), Consillium (AQIS:COIN) and Helium Ventures (AQUIS:HEV.PL), but it is lower risk and better value given it is trading at the actual value of its bitcoin holdings and looks set to enjoy a decent run should bitcoin catch a bid.If you enjoyed this article, please like, share - all that stuff. It helps.Until next time,DominicPS Here's this week's commentary in case you missed it:DisclaimerI am not regulated by the FCA or any other body as a financial advisor, so anything you read above does not constitute regulated financial advice. It is an expression of opinion only. Tech stocks are famously risky, , so please do your own due diligence and if in any doubt consult with a financial advisor. Markets go down as well as up. I do not know your personal financial circumstances, only you do, but never speculate with money you can't afford to lose. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comI am travelling to the bitcoin conference in Prague this week - come say hi if you're there - so you are likely to get a lot of bitcoin-related content over the next fortnight, as I re-indoctrinate myself.Indeed, we are talking bitcoin and gold today — and we start with this.The Bitcoin Treasury BoomUK-listed Coinsilium (AQUIS:COIN), as flagged last Sunday, is jumping on the bitcoin treasury bandwagon. It has risen over 600% in the 10 days since I covered it. It was 6p. Now it's over 40p. Its market cap it £135 million. It only owns 25 bitcoins. (Worth around £2 million).Nuts. But there you go.I have taken my original stake off the table. I'll let the rest run, as I think it will. Its recently announced placement was four times oversubscribed.Bitcoin treasury companies are the new sh1tcoins. There will soon be more of them than there are sh1tcoins, the way things are going. It will probably all end in tears - for which we will have the FCA to thank, because it has outlawed investors from buying bitcoin ETFs and the like - but, while the music is playing, we dance. The other possibility, of course, is that productive companies follow the zombie company lead, at which point the entire corporate financial model changes. Every company becoms a bitcoin treasury company. I actually think there's a good chance of this happening, and I'll explain why in a moment.But let me just remind you — and myself — that owning a bitcoin treasury company is not the same as owning bitcoin. It's a speculation, a substitute, but it's not the same.(BTW I bought some bitcoin with Revolut the other day, and I found the process very simple - though I quickly sent the money to another, safer wallet. Strike and CoinCorner are other UK options.)The non-US bitcoin treasury plays are doing better than the US, which is interesting. Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) and Semler (NASDAQ:SMLR), for example, are not moving. (They will if bitcoin breaks to new highs above $110,000, as it is trying to do, but for now it's all about the UK and Japan, and the dumb regulations that have created this situation).Gold Is Now Number TwoThis week has seen something of a landmark development, meanwhile. Gold has overtaken the euro to become the second-most held asset by central banks. 20% of central bank reserves are now held in gold, against 16% in euros.Also of considerable note — and largely unreported — US dollar holdings have fallen below 50% for the first time in almost 30 years. They now sit at 46%. De-dollarisation is happening, folks, right in front of our eyes.If you are enjoying this post, please like it, share it and all that stuff. Thank you.This 20% gold figure compares with just 10% ten years ago. I've little doubt this will double again over the next 10 years - and we'll be at 40%.Even ECB Chief Lizard, Christine Lagarde, has noticed. “The accumulation of gold by central banks continued at a record pace,” she says. “Some countries have been actively exploring alternatives to traditional cross-border payment systems.”That last sentence is telling. It further confirms what we all knew was happening. It's not just as a store of value that the US dollar's central role is subsiding, but as a medium of exchange.Gold is reclaiming its historical role as a core international holding. Make sure you own some.If you are buying gold or silver to protect yourself in these ‘interesting' times, the dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here.In the same press release Lagarde says:“Offering solutions for settling wholesale financial transactions recorded on distributed ledger technology platforms in central bank money will increase the efficiency of European financial markets and the global appeal of the euro.”That's reptilian speak for “the euro CBDC is coming soon”. The EU CBDC Beast could begin as soon as this year. It will be rolled out first at the institutional level. Then it will be forced on the minions (which I don't think will work, by the way, for reasons explained [here] — but that doesn't mean they won't try).Turning to what might prove the Big Kahuna.The Real Crisis: Government Spending Can't StopWe have another rapidly developing plotline, and this announcement was widely overlooked by the press - probably on government orders, but perhaps because, as Occam's Razor would have it, they're thick. It is, in my view, a highly significant development, and is going to open the door to a ton of money-printing.

I have a friend — we'll call him Steve. Steve's a comedian — a very good one. He started around the same time as me, maybe a bit later. Back in the day, we all thought Steve was going to be a huge star. If there were any justice in the world, he would have been. But there isn't. We all know that. Steve ended up one of those many jobbing, circuit comedians, with a brilliant act — good enough to storm pretty much any room under any circumstances — but who never seemed to get beyond the circuit. There are plenty of unknown, but brilliant acts like Steve, believe me.Maybe he didn't have the right mindset — I don't know. If you want my opinion, I think he over-thought things. But what do I know?Steve was always interested in investing and, in his spare time (comedians have plenty of that) he began speculating with his earnings. Steve liked to do things properly, and investing was no different. He studied hard, researched, read loads, watched videos, listened to podcasts, scrutinised company reports and accounts, evaluated the fundamentals. He did everything you're supposed to do.It didn't work out. Steve lost money. Consistently. Bad choices dogged him.As Covid took hold in 2020, Steve took stock of his 20 years on the circuit. Where was he was in life? What he had achieved?Just as he never broke out of the circuit, Steve had never broken into the higher tax bracket either. Despite scrupulous and honest accounting, he had never once made it beyond the basic band. He had no property — which, for a man closing in on 50, was unimpressive. He had very little in the way of savings, even though he was frugal. No pension. The comedy circuit was already in recession. Now Covid had shut it down. Things were looking bleak.Then Steve started watching Michael Saylor videos.Michael Saylor is the billionaire genius Chairman of Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) who, amidst all the money printing during Covid, was trying to protect his corporate treasury from erosion by inflation. This led him to bitcoin, which he embraced. He became one of its most articulate proponents, while his company — which had been all but dormant, share-price-wise, for 20 years — suddenly took off like a rocket. He gave birth to the bitcoin treasury model that is becoming so widespread today.Everything Saylor said made sense to Steve. Not only that — it chimed with him. Bitcoin is stored energy. Investing in bitcoin is like buying Apple, Amazon, Google, or Facebook a decade ago. They're all dominant technology networks, so destined to grow. The more you obsess over timing the market, the more mistakes you make. The best strategy is to buy bitcoin and wait. It will have a market cap in the multi-trillions. All that stuff.Steve had known about bitcoin for many years. But he never invested. He bought shares in Lloyds instead.He changed tack. He decided he was going to do for himself what Saylor had done for Strategy.He began buying bitcoin with any spare cash he had. In his ISA, he bought Strategy.He started bitcoin wallets for his nephews, nieces, and godchildren and bought them small amounts of bitcoin on their birthdays and at Christmas.Something unlikely happened: Steve's investments started going up.By now he was obsessing over Michael Saylor videos. Watching and rewatching them. Finding old interviews and presentations and marvelling at the consistency of message — and Saylor's extraordinary gift for spotting and riding technological trends.“There's not a single interview that man has done that I haven't watched,” Steve told me the other day.Steve sold every stock he owned. He couldn't buy bitcoin through his broker — thanks, FCA — so he bought Strategy instead, then other bitcoin treasury companies, last year, including the amazing Metaplanet.Meanwhile, everything he earned he sent straight to an exchange and converted to bitcoin. Only the bare essentials he needed to cover that month's bills did he keep in fiat. Steve turned his entire personal operation into a bitcoin treasury.What's more, he didn't told anyone he'd done this. Except with me — because he knows I know and love bitcoin.He doesn't mind when bitcoin sells off — it just means he can buy more on the cheap. He thinks it is inevitable — because of its superior technology — that bitcoin becomes the world's dominant money system. That individuals, corporations and countries will store their capital in bitcoin, rather than fiat, so they do not suffer erosion by inflation (which is inevitable, because governments everywhere are incapable of reining in their spending — even with Elon Musk in charge).He just keeps on accumulating, keeps on watching Saylor vids, and keeps on keeping his head down.There are lots of people like Steve. I read about them every day. I just met a load out here at Freedom Fest in California.I'm headed to BTC Prague next week. I know I'll meet a load more there. (If you're in Prague, by the way, come say hi. And if you're thinking of going, you can get 10% off tickets using code FRISBY)I've said it before and I say it again, if you save in strong currencies, and spend in weak ones, you will change your social status — you don't have to earn a lot of money to do thatI saw Steve the other day. I've never seen him happier (except after he's just stormed a gig). Guess what? He's now in a position, just four years later, where he can buy a house. That's what his girlfriend wants him to do. How about that for a transformation.You really should subscribe to this amazing publication.Only problem is: that would mean selling some of his bitcoin.If only there were vehicles by which you could borrow against your bitcoin … That's the next chapter in this extraordinary story: borrow against your bitcoin, spend in fiat, keep the asset. Trouble is, if you're in the UK — you won't be able to. Because FCAThanks very much for reading this. If you enjoyed it, please like, share - all that stuff - it helps.Until next time,DominicPS Don't forget my brilliant book about bitcoin, if you want to learn more about the space. I hear the audiobook is very good indeed. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comGreetings to you from Palm Springs, California,Something most unusual is happening in financial markets, the like of which I haven't seen for years.Junior mining companies are behaving well.Silver is going up. Platinum is going up.It feels like a proper bull market.These things have been utter dogs for years. So cripes — is this overdue or what. It had reached the point where I never thought I'd see a bull market in these things again in my lifetime.It's worth noting that this phenomenon seems largely confined to precious metals.The base metals are not seeing the same price action.By way of reference, here is platinum. It has gone off like a rocket. Almost 40% in two months.And long-time readers who held onto platinum pick Tharisa (THS.L) are starting to see that come back to life, thank goodness.Typically, you would expect to see platinum trading at 1.25 times the gold price — $4,000/oz in other words. At the moment it's $1,250, so there is plenty of future potential in that particular market.Silver, meanwhile, if it can get above $37, where there is some historical resistance, I think goes back to $50.Here's the long-term silver chart, which is looking remarkably symmetrical. We're butted up against resistance now, as you can see. After that the next line is at $44 — but if it gets to $44, I think it goes to $50.If that happens, those who hold silver miners — particularly my favourite junior producer — are going to make a lot of money.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comLet me quickly flag three things: * There is a short note at the end of this piece on the subject of bitcoin treasury companies, which I know is of interest to some of you. * We now have a video version of last week's thought piece about the housing market. * I am in Palm Springs, California, all next week. If any readers from that neck of the woods fancy meeting up, I'll be performing at the Punching Up Comedy Night with Adam Carolla, Thai Rivera and Lou Perez, and also doing various panels at Freedom Fest on gold and bitcoin. You should be able to find me via this QR code. Or send me an email or message.Right, gold … today we ask: Should you invest in gold collectibles?The gold at the Museo del Oro in Bogotá, Colombia, is one of the most stunning collections you will ever see – diadems, helmets and crowns, rings, necklaces and bracelets, beads and breastplates, even fishhooks and penis covers. The smiths of ancient South and Central America were quite brilliant artisans. The Spaniards who saw their work said Aztec goldsmiths were more skilled than their European counterparts.In Mexico, the conquistadors found life-size figures of men and women, great jars and pitchers, half pottery-half gold vases sculpted in relief with birds, animals and insects, and more. In Peru and Ecuador, the conquistadors found miniature gardens made of gold – earth of gold granules, gold cornstalks, and gold figures of men and llamas.Unfortunately, what sits in the Museo del Oro is just a fraction of what was made. The Spaniards valued bullion on weight alone, ascribing no value to art, beauty or workmanship. Most got melted down before being sent home. What they sent to their king intact got melted down once back in Europe. “What was being destroyed was more perfect than anything they enjoyed and possessed,” said a young priest travelling with the conquistador Francisco Pizarro.The conquistadors were by no means alone in this. It has happened repeatedly through history. Though gold may last, art made from gold rarely does. People always seem to melt it down. That should mean ancient gold workings should command an even higher premium for their antiquity, because they have survived the meltdown risk. But for some reason, it doesn't seem to work like that.You can't destroy gold, as I'm sure you know. It lasts forever and never loses its shine. It was present in the dust that formed the solar system, and sits in the Earth's crust today, just as it did when our planet was formed some 4.6 billion years ago.That means that little bit of gold you may be wearing on your finger or around your neck is actually older than the Earth itself. In fact, it is older than the solar system. Who knows? It might once have adorned a pharaoh or sat in a conquistador's treasure chest. Gold may be antique, but it's very rare that you get vast premiums for its antique value.Buying gold or silver? The dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here.The gold coinage that never wasIf you buy a gold sovereign minted recently, you would typically pay £600 to £630. For a Victorian sovereign minted 150 years ago or more – which has the same gold content – you would pay £660 to £680. So, for all that history and antique value, you pay just 10%. Sovereigns are not uncommon. A billion are thought to have been struck. So you get little rarity value. But even so, you'd think you would get more of a premium.The main exception is the 1937 sovereign struck for Edward VIII. Since he abdicated a few weeks before the coins were struck, they were never circulated. They are often called the “coinage that never was”, and only a few were ever minted. One sold in 2020 for £1 million. That's quite the premium. But this is rare.About ten years ago, I picked up a Justinian solidus, minted in 600AD – the solidus was the dominant coin of the Mediterranean after the Roman aureus. I got it for a 20% premium to the spot value of the metal. And I bought it from a shop in W1, so I was paying the Mayfair premium too.An ingot recovered from the SS Central America, which famously sank off the Carolina coast in 1857 carrying Californian gold to New York (and triggered a financial panic because so much bullion was lost), recently went up for auction. It weighed 649 ounces, but it was only 21-carat gold (.875 purity). If melted down, you would have 568 ounces of pure gold, which, at today's price of $3,300 per ounce, would have a spot value of $1.9 million. It sold for $2.1 million, including the buyer's premium – little more than the spot value, in other words.Antique gold very rarely catches the huge premium you might think it deserves. Beware graded coinsUnscrupulous coin dealers will often try to flog you graded coins. If a dealer tells you that some recent sovereign, for example, is extremely rare, that it was one of the last coins minted under Queen Elizabeth II, or some such, and that it has been graded and has a special certificate and blah blah... and it therefore carries a huge premium, they are trying to pull a sly one.The reality is that the extra premium paid is almost impossible to claw back when you come to sell. In almost all cases, they are trying to rip you off. Don't pay a premium for graded coins.A dealer might buy a large stock of coins from the Royal Mint. Coins are often of a slightly different quality. Dealers then send them off and pay a small fee to get them graded according to their “Mint State”. The scale ranges from MS-60 to MS-70, with MS-70 being a perfect, flawless coin. They then charge a large premium for coins with high grades, even though they barely paid any premium when they bought the coins.The margins when dealing in gold are on the slim side – sometimes just a few percent. But if they get an additional premium for the rarity, that margin can rise to 100%. No wonder there are so many unscrupulous salesman trying to flog graded coins.Fractional coins – quarter or half sovereigns, for example – or older coins do trade at a higher (though not enormous) premium. These can trade for 15 - 20% above the spot value of the gold content. But you are likely to get that back when you sell.You are not buying gold to try and be clever and hope that your coin gets some kind of rarity value. In most cases, that will not happen. There are clever people who know this market better than you already playing this game. Don't get involved is my advice. Your priority is to get as much gold for your money as possible. You are buying gold to preserve purchasing power, not to lose it.This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Some developments in the bitcoin treasury company story - a new kid on the block

Enjoyed this vid? Then please like, share and all that stuff. It helps!If you want to read the original article on which this video is based, hee it is.Subscribe to this amazing publication, why don't you?.If you are thinking of buying silver or gold bullion to protect yourself in these ‘interesting' times - and I recommend you do - the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here.Join my new WhatsApp channel This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comIf you enjoy this article. Please like it, share it and so on. It all helps. I thank you.It's time for my annual slagging off of silver. Why now?Because, according to one of my WhatsApp chats, it's breaking out.Silver is always breaking out. It never actually does.Was ever there a metal with as much potential as silver? Probably not.Was ever there a metal you could so wholly depend on to let you down? If there is, I'm not aware of it (though these past 15 years, platinum has been running it close).But maybe, just maybe this time is different.Really?Let's start with a bit of gossip from the front line.I have three mates who are CEOs of silver mining companies, as you do. All three of them, based in Latin America, have reported back with the same story.Typically, a miner would pay a company — usually a refiner — to take ore off their hands, treat and smelt it, so it can be sold. So-called off-take agreements would usually amount to $120–180 per tonne of ore. But, at the moment, refiners aren't charging anything. Somebody is subsidising it all.Could it be that humongous, commodity-guzzling nation that begins with a C, I wonder?It wants silver for all those solar panels Ed Miliband is buying.The way things are behaving and moving at the moment, it's starting to feel like we are moving into a proper commodities bull market. Maybe 2021–22 was just the appetizer.Stop! Don't get excited. It's silver we're talking about here.The case for silver runs roughly as follows:We are in an age of currency debasement, therefore you want to own hard assets. In such an inflationary environment, the monetary metals — gold and silver — perform best. Silver has been money since forever. It is natural money etc etc.Let's just address that before we move on.Gold is still used as money in the store-of-value sense of the word. National banks keep it. Institutions keep it. Individuals keep it. Gold's role was always more store of value than medium of exchange. Historically, we used silver, copper and nickel for all but high-value transactions.Silver was not used as a store of value to the extent gold was. Its function was more, as I say, as a medium of exchange. That role has long gone. The gold rushes of the 19th century did for silver.Long story — it's in my book, which comes out in August — but to cut it short, the vast increase in gold supply enabled nations to abandon silver. In the case of the US, it was the Coinage Act of 1873 — or as silver bugs like to call it, the Crime of '73 — that began the end of silver as official money. In the UK — largely thanks to the Portuguese discoveries of gold in Minas Gerais (again, long story, it's in the book) — the process began a good 150 years earlier.In these cashless times, there is little chance of silver regaining its role as medium of exchange.As a result, looking at gold-to-silver ratios — it now takes about 100 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold — and saying we are going back to the historical average of 12 or 15:1 is mistaken. There may well only be 15 times as much silver in the Earth's crust as gold (making 15:1 the natural ratio) but without its role as money, this is just not going to happen. Not for any prolonged period.In the last 100 years, we have only touched this level once — Thursday, March 27, 1980. Uncommon circumstances. Two brothers were trying to corner the silver market.Silver's role as money is as good as over. Silver bugs hate me when I say that. But I can only say it like I see it.Physical silver in your possession is nobody else's liability — I get that — and it is outside of the financial system — I get that too. There are many reasons to invest in silver. I own physical silver. But expecting it to be monetised again should not be one of them.If you are thinking of buying silver or gold bullion, the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here.If Armageddon comes, you'll be glad you own silver — maybe — but there will be bigger problems on your plate. Like Armageddon.Everywhere silverSilver has widespread industrial use, especially in these times of mass electrification. You could write a book about the industrial uses of silver, there are so many. It might not be a very good book, but it would be long.From medical equipment to electrical appliances, it's almost harder to find things that don't contain silver than things that do. Every smartphone has silver in it; every computer; every jet engine; every solar panel. The best batteries contain silver. It's used in detergent, deodorant, wart treatment, antimicrobial lab coats, 3D printing, plastics, jewellery, wood preservation, water purification — it's like a picks-and-shovels play on new tech and the growing middle class of the developing world.Annual silver demand stands at around 1.2 billion ounces. Roughly 60% of that demand — 700 million ounces — comes from industry (500 million from electrical and electronics, half of which is solar panels); 22% from jewellery and silverware; and 18% from investment.Annual supply is about one billion ounces (80% mining, 20% recycling) — so the market is in deficit. Hence the current rising price.Most silver is produced as a bi-product of other mines, especially lead and zinc (eg at one point BHP Billiton was the world's largest silver producer).There is, however, a romance to silver. It catches the public imagination — occasionally with explosive results. It did in 1980 when it went to $50 (it had been $2 just a few years earlier). It did again in 2011 when it revisited $50 before collapsing. It nearly took off during Lockdown Meme Mania, but didn't quite get going.As a result of this romance, it has a tendency to go bananas every few years — but it never lasts. Does romance? Sometimes, if you're lucky.There is also the issue of silver price suppression, which some use to explain every sell-off in the silver markets. There's nothing any of us can do about that — even if true — so let's not go there.Silver will at some point revisit $50. At some other point it will get above that figure. The mother of all narratives will take hold, and silver will probably end up going to $100 or even $200.At which point you want to be owning silver stocks …It will also, at some point, revisit $15. That's when you don't want to be owning silver stocks.Here is 100 years of silver prices. If you give any credence to such things, there is the mother of all cup-and-handle formations appearing (that's a super bullish pattern), which I have drawn in blue. It projects prices towards the $100/oz mark.It's also apparent on the 50-year chart. (I haven't drawn it here - I'll let you visualise).Silver has been in a bull market since summer 2022, but it has, broadly speaking, followed rather than led gold. It's now come up against a wall at around $35.You could say it's a triple top.Then again, the more times you test a level, the less likely it is to hold — particularly when each low is higher than the last, as is the case here.But these last few weeks, all of a sudden, silver is leading gold.What's more, silver miners are leading silver. That's what makes me bullish.Here is the silver miners' ETF, SIL (NYSE: SIL) — and you can see, just as they're saying in my WhatsApp chats — the silver miners really have broken out.I haven't seen this in a long time. Miners leading!!!!! WTF?This is why I'm saying it's starting to feel like a proper metals bull market.So how am I playing this?What are the best ways to invest in silver and profit?

I've been viewing houses this past fortnight, so I thought I'd share my anecdotal 2p on the state of the London property market.I'm looking in Brockley, SE4, which, if you don't know it, used to be rough AF, but is now where all the cool kids are. The area has benefited from the various London rail line extensions – you can be in Shoreditch or Canary Wharf in 15 minutes; the Jubilee and Elizabeth lines are a similarly short step away – and that has attracted the slay crew to the area. The road links though are still horrendous though, made worse by 20mph speed limits and bus lane misallocation of essential road space. The drive to west London is interminable.Brockley has a good stock of beautiful detached, semi-detached and terraced Victorian houses. For example: With its proximity to Greenwich and the river docks, it was once a wealthy area, though, like most of south-east London, it got bombed to heck in the war.There are plenty of nice parks too. One of them, Hilly Fields, was modelled on Hampstead Heath, and there are many gorgeous houses in the roads running off it. Not quite Hampstead gorgeous, but getting there.Brockley also has the highest density of cemeteries in London, if you fancy dying any time soon, it's highly convenient. It is, I gather, London's most haunted area.It is only a bit stabby. Nothing like as bad as neighbouring Lewisham. (Maybe “only a bit stabby” will one day become part of estate agents' jargon, perhaps to replace “vibrant”. I can't believe how normalised stabbing now is that I'm talking like that.)The stabbiness is offset, however, by the plethora of nice restaurants, cafés, bars, craft ale breweries, the farmers' market, mini-festivals, pilates studios et al. I understand, in Browns, the area boasts London's best coffee and, in Babur, its best Indian restaurant. (Technically Babur is in Honor Oak, but, like England and many of its foreign sporting greats, we'll claim it as our own.)I shot this vid from the steps up to the station.Brockley feels younger and more up-and-coming than the once-cool areas to the west like Queen's Park, Kensal Rise, Clapham and so on, probably because of its easy access to east London. (A lot of people from Hackney move down here.)I moved here begrudgingly and skint in 2015 and have grown to really like it.But what about the housing market?I've known markets in which estate agents don't give you the time of day, there are so many prospective buyers, but – perhaps because they know I am an unencumbered buyer – the agents are maybe not quite all over me, but certainly on my case: lots of emails, phone calls and the rest of it. That indicates it's more of a buyers' market.But, while I would describe the housing market here as slow, it is not dead. Stuff has been going under offer in the two weeks I've been looking, though rarely at asking.With the costs of moving – Stamp Duty is 10% above £925k, and 12% above £1.5m, plus an extra 5% if you own another property – buyers have got to really want to buy.Sellers, meanwhile, have to really want to sell, which often entails reducing their asking prices. Stuff which is unrealistically priced is staying on the market a long time. Look at this one (actually up the road in Honor Oak):This is a 5,000-square-foot property, not so nice inside, but with access to a 2-acre private garden behind with its own tennis court – quite something in London. From £2.5 million to £1.75 million and they still can't shift it. (It needs a lot of money spending on it.)On the other hand, there don't seem to be many forced sellers – people who can't make their payments – and we won't get any house price crash, long-awaited or not, until that is a reality.I imagine Brockley, as a young, trendy area, is busier than other parts of town, but that is my overall feel: slow, but not dead.I've looked at a few family houses. I can't really comment on flats, but I gather there is an oversupply of 2-bed flats across London, and it is really hard to shift them. I'm not sure if this applies to Brockley or not.It doesn't feel as expensive as it did around 2019–2022 (realised sales prices are a fraction lower, but there is obviously currency debasement to consider too), but nor does it feel super cheap. We're a long way off where we were in, say, 2013, even though grander parts of London – Kensington and Chelsea, for example – are back at those 2013 levels.Where does the housing market go from here? It all depends on two things: interest rates and Stamp Duty.Britain's zombie housing market, brought to you by Stamp Duty.If rates go lower, the market will not collapse. There won't be the forced sellers. We'll continue as we are: stagnant. If rates go higher, the market is in trouble.But get rid of Stamp Duty, and you'd have a flurry of activity across the country tomorrow. People aren't moving because of the amount of dead money involved. Stamp Duty has immobilised the country.If you're buying a two-million-pound house, you will pay £153,750 in stamp duty. Cash. Money you've already paid tax on once. You can't borrow the money. You have to be extremely rich, or extremely desperate for a home, to be willing to pay a £150k one-off tax of this kind. Most would rather avoid paying it, so they don't move.You will pay more if you are not a UK resident.If you happen to own another property – which most people in that wealth bracket will, either their first flat they never sold, a property they inherited, or a home in the country – and the house you are buying is not your main residence, the tax rises to £253,750. A quarter of a million quid.That's why houses in Kensington and Chelsea no longer sell. EDIT: My mate, whose kids have now flown the nest, sent me this: "We live in a 4 floor house, 2 floors we don't use, I haven't been to the top floor for about 5 years (seriously). We would love to move and downsize but makes no sense as the costs of buying a new house would use up all the gain on downsizing . IE We just end up with a smaller house."This happens all the way down the scale. Kirstie Whatsit off the telly was tweeting about it the other day.My mother's friend, who is in her 70s, lives in a 2-bed flat two floors up in Wandsworth worth maybe £700,000. She is worried about climbing the stairs at her age, and wants to move to another 2-bed flat. She will pay £25,000 in Stamp Duty on top of all her other moving costs. She doesn't have 25 grand to throw away.The result is this nearly dead market. Britain's zombie housing market.Stamp Duties were one of the taxes the ignited the American Revolution. If only we had muskets today …The biggest villains in all this are former Chancellor Gordon Brown for first raising Stamp Duty on property transactions (before him it just one per cent on all properties over £60,000), and, worst of all, George Osborne for raising the rates to today's ludicrous levels. Rather than address the root causes of unaffordable housing – fiat money, artificially low interest rates, improper measures of inflation and dumb planning laws – he blamed the market, and attacked it with Stamp Duty. But all of Jeremy Hunt, Rishi Sunak, Sajid Javid, Philip Hammond and Alistair Darling must take their share of the blame for failing to do anything about it, when they had the chance. (We'll give Kwasi Kwarteng and Nadhim Zahawi a pass on the grounds they didn't have the gig for long enough).Osborne, Brown et al have given birth to the zombie situation we have now. They have immobilised the country in the process. Government. Yet again. 0 stars. Would not use again.It's enough to make you a libertarian. Until next time,DominicPS If you enjoyed today's article, please like, share and all that stuff. It really helps.PPS If you missed this week's market commentary, here it is:As always If you are buying gold to protect yourself in these times or relentless currency debasement, the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comI've had a flood of new readers sign up to the Flying Frisby this week, I'm delighted to report, largely as a result of this article on bitcoin treasury companies and of this video on North Sea oil and the next Labour U-turn, which has been doing the rounds on the net.So welcome everyone. I hope you enjoy the ride.Today's piece is going to be a bit of a hotchpotch, as I gather my thoughts and tidy up a few loose ends.We'll start with the macro. Are we in a bull market? Are the animal spirits back in command? Or have we just gone through a bear market rally?It all depends on tariffs, I guess, and what is going on in the Great Orange Man's mind. What plans does he have? That I cannot answer, but I will say the S&P500 looks like it might have just put in a lower high.We want to be above that blue line.If he goes full tariff again, all bets - well most - are off.But thanks to the Great Orange Man's pronouncements on uranium, our speculation Lightbridge Fuels (NASDAQ:LTBR) is now enjoying another of its spikes. If he goes full tariff again, all bets - well most - are off.But thanks to the Great Orange Man's pronouncements on uranium, our speculation Lightbridge Fuels (NASDAQ:LTBR) is now enjoying another of its spikes.Sell the spikes, buy the dips has been the play here. We are on one such spike now, so if the recent pattern continues (it won't continue forever, nothing does, but it might for a bit) then lighten up between $15 and $20 and buy if it goes back to $9 is the trade.Sell the spikes, buy the dips has been the play here. We are on one such spike now, so if the recent pattern continues (it won't continue forever, nothing does, but it might for a bit) then lighten up between $15 and $20 and buy if it goes back to $9 is the trade.We have quite a well defined, trade-able range emerging here, as defined by the blue lines below.I don't see it going back to the $2.50-$3 area, where we were lucky enough to first stumble upon this stock, but $8.50-9 looks like the new floor. For now.Remember: this was an $800 stock once upon a time, so there is a lot of upside left. One should probably keep some money on the table, in case we don't get the dip.Tell your friends.The next Starmer U-turnTurning next to the issue of the re-opening of the North Sea. Since posting that video our Glorious Leader has tightened ties with the EU, and in particular relevance here, its net zero goals. The UK now commits to net zero obligations “at least as ambitious as the EU”. “Want to get out of net zero?,” says Lord Frost in the Telegraph, “Tough: you can't, unless the EU agrees”.That said I am sure Captain FlipFlop will find a way of flipflopping his way round any North Sea ties and then spinning it. There is a review this week. Surely even this government will realise importing Norwegian gas for (net) zero tax take, fewer jobs and a higher carbon footprint than producing our own makes (net) zero sense. More importantly it is gifting Reform. Maybe the needs of the Treasury mean Milibrain - Miliband gets overruled. We will know more as soon as today.Adding another bitcoin treasury company to my portfolioIn a moment, I am going to take a look at Comstock Lode (NYSE:LODE), further to its AGM this week. I know I keep talking about this company, but it might be the one we all retire on - hence my outsized attention.But first I also want to continue on the bitcoin treasury company story.(Despite the outperformance of the treasury companies of late, I still prefer bitcoin and think it should be a core holding. The treasury companies are rather more speculative. However, given the hassle involved, I understand why some in the UK prefer the treasury companies).How about this for nuts? The UK's Smarter Web Company (ISIN: GB00BPJHZ015) hit a market cap of £175 million yesterday. Its assets: it has about £5 million in bitcoin.The dude who founded it, Andrew Webley, was a month ago running a web design firm in Guildford with net assets of less than £50,000. In the company's Retail Investor IPO document, he committed to invest a minimum of £30,000...through his ISA”. (h/t Glen Goodman)This will not end well. And we have the FCA to thank. It has made it so difficult to buy bitcoin, investors are buying this company and others like it instead.If, like many readers, you are playing this one, make sure you get your original investment out, is my advice …Meanwhile, Metaplanet (3350:TYO) briefly lost a third of its value last week, falling below ¥800. Now it's above ¥1,200, at all-time highs, trading at 450% of the value of its bitcoin.It's a mania all right.I'm adding another position, in a stock which has some recent history of manias.What is it? Ah-ha …

Good Sunday morning to you,I am just on a train home from Glasgow, where I have been gigging these past two nights. I've had a great time, as I always seem to do when I go north of the wall.But Glasgow on a Saturday night is something else. My hotel was right next to the station and so I was right in the thick of it. If I ever get to make a cacatopian, end-of-days, post-apocalyptic thriller, I'll just stroll through Glasgow city centre on a Friday or Saturday night with a camera to get all the B roll. It was like walking through a Hieronymus Bosch painting only with a Scottish accent. Little seems to have changed since I wrote that infamous chapter about Glasgow in Life After the State all those years ago. The only difference is that now it's more multi-ethnic. So many people are so off their heads. I lost count of the number of randoms wandering about just howling at the stars. The long days - it was still light at 10 o'clock - make the insanity all the more visible. Part of me finds it funny, but another part of me finds it so very sad that so many people let themselves get into this condition. It prompted me to revisit said chapter, and I offer it today as your Sunday thought piece.Just a couple of little notes, before we begin. This caught my eye on Friday. Our favourite uranium tech company, Lightbridge Fuels (NASDAQ:LTBR), has taken off again with Donald Trump's statement that he is going to quadruple US nuclear capacity. The stock was up 45% in a day. We first looked at it in October at $3. It hit $15 on Friday. It's one to sell on the spikes and buy on the dips, as this incredible chart shows.(In other news I have now listened twice to the Comstock Lode AGM, and I'll report back on that shortly too). ICYMI here is my mid-week commentary, which attracted a lot of attentionRight - Glasgow.(NB I haven't included references here. Needless to say, they are all there in the book. And sorry I don't have access to the audio of me reading this from my laptop, but, if you like, you can get the audiobook at Audible, Apple Books and all good audiobookshops. The book itself available at Amazon, Apple Books et al).How the Most Entrepreneurial City in Europe Became Its SickestThe cause of waves of unemployment is not capitalism, but governments …Friedrich Hayek, economist and philosopherIn the 18th and 19th centuries, the city of Glasgow in Scotland became enormously, stupendously rich. It happened quite organically, without planning. An entrepreneurial people reacted to their circumstances and, over time, turned Glasgow into an industrial and economic centre of such might that, by the turn of the 20th century, Glasgow was producing half the tonnage of Britain's ships and a quarter of all locomotives in the world. (Not unlike China's industrial dominance today). It was regarded as the best-governed city in Europe and popular histories compared it to the great imperial cities of Venice and Rome. It became known as the ‘Second City of the British Empire'.Barely 100 years later, it is the heroin capital of the UK, the murder capital of the UK and its East End, once home to Europe's largest steelworks, has been dubbed ‘the benefits capital of the UK'. Glasgow is Britain's fattest city: its men have Britain's lowest life expectancy – on a par with Palestine and Albania – and its unemployment rate is 50% higher than the rest of the UK.How did Glasgow manage all that?The growth in Glasgow's economic fortunes began in the latter part of the 17th century and the early 18th century. First, the city's location in the west of Scotland at the mouth of the river Clyde meant that it lay in the path of the trade winds and at least 100 nautical miles closer to America's east coast than other British ports – 200 miles closer than London. In the days before fossil fuels (which only found widespread use in shipping in the second half of the 19th century) the journey to Virginia was some two weeks shorter than the same journey from London or many of the other ports in Britain and Europe. Even modern sailors describe how easy the port of Glasgow is to navigate. Second, when England was at war with France – as it was repeatedly between 1688 and 1815 – ships travelling to Glasgow were less vulnerable than those travelling to ports further south. Glasgow's merchants took advantage and, by the early 18th century, the city had begun to assert itself as a trading hub. Manufactured goods were carried from Britain and Europe to North America and the Caribbean, where they were traded for increasingly popular commodities such as tobacco, cotton and sugar.Through the 18th century, the Glasgow merchants' business networks spread, and they took steps to further accelerate trade. New ships were introduced, bigger than those of rival ports, with fore and aft sails that enabled them to sail closer to the wind and reduce journey times. Trading posts were built to ensure that cargo was gathered and stored for collection, so that ships wouldn't swing idly at anchor. By the 1760s Glasgow had a 50% share of the tobacco trade – as much as the rest of Britain's ports combined. While the English merchants simply sold American tobacco in Europe at a profit, the Glaswegians actually extended credit to American farmers against future production (a bit like a crop future today, where a crop to be grown at a later date is sold now). The Virginia farmers could then use this credit to buy European goods, which the Glaswegians were only too happy to supply. This brought about the rise of financial institutions such as the Glasgow Ship Bank and the Glasgow Thistle Bank, which would later become part of the now-bailed-out, taxpayer-owned Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS).Their practices paid rewards. Glasgow's merchants earned a great deal of money. They built glamorous homes and large churches and, it seems, took on aristocratic airs – hence they became known as the ‘Tobacco Lords'. Numbering among them were Buchanan, Dunlop, Ingram, Wilson, Oswald, Cochrane and Glassford, all of whom had streets in the Merchant City district of Glasgow named after them (other streets, such as Virginia Street and Jamaica Street, refer to their trade destinations). In 1771, over 47 million pounds of tobacco were imported.However, the credit the Glaswegians extended to American tobacco farmers would backfire. The debts incurred by the tobacco farmers – which included future presidents George Washington and Thomas Jefferson (who almost lost his farm as a result) – grew, and were among the grievances when the American War of Independence came in 1775. That war destroyed the tobacco trade for the Glaswegians. Much of the money that was owed to them was never repaid. Many of their plantations were lost. But the Glaswegians were entrepreneurial and they adapted. They moved on to other businesses, particularly cotton.By the 19th century, all sorts of local industry had emerged around the goods traded in the city. It was producing and exporting textiles, chemicals, engineered goods and steel. River engineering projects to dredge and deepen the Clyde (with a view to forming a deep- water port) had begun in 1768 and they would enable shipbuilding to become a major industry on the upper reaches of the river, pioneered by industrialists such as Robert Napier and John Elder. The final stretch of the Monkland Canal, linking the Forth and Clyde Canal at Port Dundas, was opened in 1795, facilitating access to the iron-ore and coal mines of Lanarkshire.The move to fossil-fuelled shipping in the latter 19th century destroyed the advantages that the trade winds had given Glasgow. But it didn't matter. Again, the people adapted. By the turn of the 20th century the Second City of the British Empire had become a world centre of industry and heavy engineering. It has been estimated that, between 1870 and 1914, it produced as much as one-fifth of the world's ships, and half of Britain's tonnage. Among the 25,000 ships it produced were some of the greatest ever built: the Cutty Sark, the Queen Mary, HMS Hood, the Lusitania, the Glenlee tall ship and even the iconic Mississippi paddle steamer, the Delta Queen. It had also become a centre for locomotive manufacture and, shortly after the turn of the 20th century, could boast the largest concentration of locomotive building works in Europe.It was not just Glasgow's industry and wealth that was so gargantuan. The city's contribution to mankind – made possible by the innovation and progress that comes with booming economies – would also have an international impact. Many great inventors either hailed from Glasgow or moved there to study or work. There's James Watt, for example, whose improvements to the steam engine were fundamental to the Industrial Revolution. One of Watt's employees, William Murdoch, has been dubbed ‘the Scot who lit the world' – he invented gas lighting, a new kind of steam cannon and waterproof paint. Charles MacIntosh gave us the raincoat. James Young, the chemist dubbed as ‘the father of the oil industry', gave us paraffin. William Thomson, known as Lord Kelvin, developed the science of thermodynamics, formulating the Kelvin scale of absolute temperature; he also managed the laying of the first transatlantic telegraph cable.The turning point in the economic fortunes of Glasgow – indeed, of industrial Britain – was WWI. Both have been in decline ever since. By the end of the war, the British were drained, both emotionally and in terms of capital and manpower; the workers, the entrepreneurs, the ideas men, too many of them were dead or incapacitated. There was insufficient money and no appetite to invest. The post-war recession, and later the Great Depression, did little to help. The trend of the city was now one of inexorable economic decline.If Glasgow was the home of shipping and industry in 19th-century Britain, it became the home of socialism in the 20th century. Known by some as the ‘Red Clydeside' movement, the socialist tide in Scotland actually pre-dated the First World War. In 1906 came the city's first Labour Member of Parliament (MP), George Barnes – prior to that its seven MPs were all Conservatives or Liberal Unionists. In the spring of 1911, 11,000 workers at the Singer sewing-machine factory (run by an American corporation in Clydebank) went on strike to support 12 women who were protesting about new work practices. Singer sacked 400 workers, but the movement was growing – as was labour unrest. In the four years between 1910 and 1914 Clydebank workers spent four times as many days on strike than in the whole of the previous decade. The Scottish Trades Union Congress and its affiliations saw membership rise from 129,000 in 1909 to 230,000 in 1914.20The rise in discontent had much to do with Glasgow's housing. Conditions were bad, there was overcrowding, bad sanitation, housing was close to dirty, noxious and deafening industry. Unions grew quite organically to protect the interests of their members.Then came WWI, and inflation, as Britain all but abandoned gold. In 1915 many landlords responded by attempting to increase rent, but with their young men on the Western front, those left behind didn't have the means to pay these higher costs. If they couldn't, eviction soon followed. In Govan, an area of Glasgow where shipbuilding was the main occupation, women – now in the majority with so many men gone – organized opposition to the rent increases. There are photographs showing women blocking the entrance to tenements; officers who did get inside to evict tenants are said to have had their trousers pulled down.The landlords were attacked for being unpatriotic. Placards read: ‘While our men are fighting on the front line,the landlord is attacking us at home.' The strikes spread to other cities throughout the UK, and on 27 November 1915 the government introduced legislation to restrict rents to the pre-war level. The strikers were placated. They had won. The government was happy; it had dealt with the problem. The landlords lost out.In the aftermath of the Russian Revolution of 1917, more frequent strikes crippled the city. In 1919 the ‘Bloody Friday' uprising prompted the prime minister, David Lloyd George, to deploy 10,000 troops and tanks onto the city's streets. By the 1930s Glasgow had become the main base of the Independent Labour Party, so when Labour finally came to power alone after WWII, its influence was strong. Glasgow has always remained a socialist stronghold. Labour dominates the city council, and the city has not had a Conservative MP for 30 years.By the late 1950s, Glasgow was losing out to the more competitive industries of Japan, Germany and elsewhere. There was a lack of investment. Union demands for workers, enforced by government legislation, made costs uneconomic and entrepreneurial activity arduous. With lack of investment came lack of innovation.Rapid de-industrialization followed, and by the 1960s and 70s most employment lay not in manufacturing, but in the service industries.Which brings us to today. On the plus side, Glasgow is still ranked as one of Europe's top 20 financial centres and is home to some leading Scottish businesses. But there is considerable downside.Recent studies have suggested that nearly 30% of Glasgow's working age population is unemployed. That's 50% higher than that of the rest of Scotland or the UK. Eighteen per cent of 16- to 19-year-olds are neither in school nor employed. More than one in five working-age Glaswegians have no sort of education that might qualify them for a job.In the city centre, the Merchant City, 50% of children are growing up in homes where nobody works. In the poorer neighbourhoods, such as Ruchill, Possilpark, or Dalmarnock, about 65% of children live in homes where nobody works – more than three times the national average. Figures from the Department of Work and Pensions show that 85% of working age adults from the district of Bridgeton claim some kind of welfare payment.Across the city, almost a third of the population regularly receives sickness or incapacity benefit, the highest rate of all UK cities. A 2008 World Health Organization report noted that in Glasgow's Calton, Bridgeton and Queenslie neighbourhoods, the average life expectancy for males is only 54. In contrast, residents of Glasgow's more affluent West End live to be 80 and virtually none of them are on the dole.Glasgow has the highest crime rate in Scotland. A recent report by the Centre for Social Justice noted that there are 170 teenage gangs in Glasgow. That's the same number as in London, which has over six times the population of Glasgow.It also has the dubious record of being Britain's murder capital. In fact, Glasgow had the highest homicide rate in Western Europe until it was overtaken in 2012 by Amsterdam, with more violent crime per head of population than even New York. What's more, its suicide rate is the highest in the UK.Then there are the drug and alcohol problems. The residents of the poorer neighbourhoods are an astounding six times more likely to die of a drugs overdose than the national average. Drug-related mortality has increased by 95% since 1997. There are 20,000 registered drug users – that's just registered – and the situation is not going to get any better: children who grow up in households where family members use drugs are seven times more likely to end up using drugs themselves than children who live in drug-free families.Glasgow has the highest incidence of liver diseases from alcohol abuse in all of Scotland. In the East End district of Dennistoun, these illnesses kill more people than heart attacks and lung cancer combined. Men and women are more likely to die of alcohol-related deaths in Glasgow than anywhere else in the UK. Time and time again Glasgow is proud winner of the title ‘Fattest City in Britain'. Around 40% of the population are obese – 5% morbidly so – and it also boasts the most smokers per capita.I have taken these statistics from an array of different sources. It might be in some cases that they're overstated. I know that I've accentuated both the 18th- and 19th-century positives, as well as the 20th- and 21st-century negatives to make my point. Of course, there are lots of healthy, happy people in Glasgow – I've done many gigs there and I loved it. Despite the stories you hear about intimidating Glasgow audiences, the ones I encountered were as good as any I've ever performed in front of. But none of this changes the broad-brush strokes: Glasgow was a once mighty city that now has grave social problems. It is a city that is not fulfilling its potential in the way that it once did. All in all, it's quite a transformation. How has it happened?Every few years a report comes out that highlights Glasgow's various problems. Comments are then sought from across the political spectrum. Usually, those asked to comment agree that the city has grave, ‘long-standing and deep-rooted social problems' (the words of Stephen Purcell, former leader of Glasgow City Council); they agree that something needs to be done, though they don't always agree on what that something is.There's the view from the right: Bill Aitken of the Scottish Conservatives, quoted in The Sunday Times in 2008, said, ‘We simply don't have the jobs for people who are not academically inclined. Another factor is that some people are simply disinclined to work. We have got to find something for these people to do, to give them a reason to get up in the morning and give them some self-respect.' There's the supposedly apolitical view of anti-poverty groups: Peter Kelly, director of the Glasgow-based Poverty Alliance, responded, ‘We need real, intensive support for people if we are going to tackle poverty. It's not about a lack of aspiration, often people who are unemployed or on low incomes are stymied by a lack of money and support from local and central government.' And there's the view from the left. In the same article, Patricia Ferguson, the Labour Member of the Scottish Parliament (MSP) for Maryhill, also declared a belief in government regeneration of the area. ‘It's about better housing, more jobs, better education and these things take years to make an impact. I believe that the huge regeneration in the area is fostering a lot more community involvement and cohesion. My real hope is that these figures will take a knock in the next five or ten years.' At the time of writing in 2013, five years later, the figures have worsened.All three points of view agree on one thing: the government must do something.In 2008 the £435 million Fairer Scotland Fund – established to tackle poverty – was unveiled, aiming to allocate cash to the country's most deprived communities. Its targets included increasing average income among lower wage-earners and narrowing the poverty gap between Scotland's best- and worst-performing regions by 2017. So far, it hasn't met those targets.In 2008 a report entitled ‘Power for The Public' examined the provision of health, education and justice in Scotland. It said the budgets for these three areas had grown by 55%, 87% and 44% respectively over the last decade, but added that this had produced ‘mixed results'. ‘Mixed results' means it didn't work. More money was spent and the figures got worse.After the Centre for Social Justice report on Glasgow in 2008, Iain Duncan Smith (who set up this think tank, and is now the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions) said, ‘Policy must deal with the pathways to breakdown – high levels of family breakdown, high levels of failed education, debt and unemployment.'So what are ‘pathways to breakdown'? If you were to look at a chart of Glasgow's prosperity relative to the rest of the world, its peak would have come somewhere around 1910. With the onset of WWI in 1914 its decline accelerated, and since then the falls have been relentless and inexorable. It's not just Glasgow that would have this chart pattern, but the whole of industrial Britain. What changed the trend? Yes, empires rise and fall, but was British decline all a consequence of WWI? Or was there something else?A seismic shift came with that war – a change which is very rarely spoken or written about. Actually, the change was gradual and it pre-dated 1914. It was a change that was sweeping through the West: that of government or state involvement in our lives. In the UK it began with the reforms of the Liberal government of 1906–14, championed by David Lloyd George and Winston Churchill, known as the ‘terrible twins' by contemporaries. The Pensions Act of 1908, the People's Budget of 1909–10 (to ‘wage implacable warfare against poverty', declared Lloyd George) and the National Insurance Act of 1911 saw the Liberal government moving away from its tradition of laissez-faire systems – from classical liberalism and Gladstonian principles of self-help and self-reliance – towards larger, more active government by which taxes were collected from the wealthy and the proceeds redistributed. Afraid of losing votes to the emerging Labour party and the increasingly popular ideology of socialism, modern liberals betrayed their classical principles. In his War Memoirs, Lloyd George said ‘the partisan warfare that raged around these topics was so fierce that by 1913, this country was brought to the verge of civil war'. But these were small steps. The Pensions Act, for example, meant that men aged 70 and above could claim between two and five shillings per week from the government. But average male life- expectancy then was 47. Today it's 77. Using the same ratio, and, yes, I'm manipulating statistics here, that's akin to only awarding pensions to people above the age 117 today. Back then it was workable.To go back to my analogy of the prologue, this period was when the ‘train' was set in motion across the West. In 1914 it went up a gear. Here are the opening paragraphs of historian A. J. P. Taylor's most celebrated book, English History 1914–1945, published in 1965.I quote this long passage in full, because it is so telling.Until August 1914 a sensible, law-abiding Englishman could pass through life and hardly notice the existence of the state, beyond the post office and the policeman. He could live where he liked and as he liked. He had no official number or identity card. He could travel abroad or leave his country forever without a passport or any sort of official permission. He could exchange his money for any other currency without restriction or limit. He could buy goods from any country in the world on the same terms as he bought goods at home. For that matter, a foreigner could spend his life in this country without permit and without informing the police. Unlike the countries of the European continent, the state did not require its citizens to perform military service. An Englishman could enlist, if he chose, in the regular army, the navy, or the territorials. He could also ignore, if he chose, the demands of national defence. Substantial householders were occasionally called on for jury service. Otherwise, only those helped the state, who wished to do so. The Englishman paid taxes on a modest scale: nearly £200 million in 1913–14, or rather less than 8% of the national income.The state intervened to prevent the citizen from eating adulterated food or contracting certain infectious diseases. It imposed safety rules in factories, and prevented women, and adult males in some industries,from working excessive hours.The state saw to it that children received education up to the age of 13. Since 1 January 1909, it provided a meagre pension for the needy over the age of 70. Since 1911, it helped to insure certain classes of workers against sickness and unemployment. This tendency towards more state action was increasing. Expenditure on the social services had roughly doubled since the Liberals took office in 1905. Still, broadly speaking, the state acted only to help those who could not help themselves. It left the adult citizen alone.All this was changed by the impact of the Great War. The mass of the people became, for the first time, active citizens. Their lives were shaped by orders from above; they were required to serve the state instead of pursuing exclusively their own affairs. Five million men entered the armed forces, many of them (though a minority) under compulsion. The Englishman's food was limited, and its quality changed, by government order. His freedom of movement was restricted; his conditions of work prescribed. Some industries were reduced or closed, others artificially fostered. The publication of news was fettered. Street lights were dimmed. The sacred freedom of drinking was tampered with: licensed hours were cut down, and the beer watered by order. The very time on the clocks was changed. From 1916 onwards, every Englishman got up an hour earlier in summer than he would otherwise have done, thanks to an act of parliament. The state established a hold over its citizens which, though relaxed in peacetime, was never to be removed and which the Second World war was again to increase. The history of the English state and of the English people merged for the first time.Since the beginning of WWI , the role that the state has played in our lives has not stopped growing. This has been especially so in the case of Glasgow. The state has spent more and more, provided more and more services, more subsidy, more education, more health care, more infrastructure, more accommodation, more benefits, more regulations, more laws, more protection. The more it has provided, the worse Glasgow has fared. Is this correlation a coincidence? I don't think so.The story of the rise and fall of Glasgow is a distilled version of the story of the rise and fall of industrial Britain – indeed the entire industrial West. In the next chapter I'm going to show you a simple mistake that goes on being made; a dynamic by which the state, whose very aim was to help Glasgow, has actually been its ‘pathway to breakdown' . . .Life After the State is available at Amazon, Apple Books and all good bookshops, with the audiobook at Audible, Apple Books and all good audiobookshops. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comPlease do not share, copy, reproduce or distribute any part of this report without my express permission. Thank you.Many thanks to all the new subscribers who have joined this week, both paid and unpaid. I put this video of my recent North Sea Oil piece up on YouTube, X et al and it generated something of a flurry.So welcome. I hope you both enjoy and benefit from The Flying Frisby.Before we get started I just wanted to note that Comstock Lode seems to be catching a nice tail wind, which is good. Enjoy the ride. The AGM is later today for the keener of you out there.But we are looking at bitcoin today, and exploring an alternative way to invest in it.I'm going through one of those phases where I feel like I don't own enough bitcoin.So I've bought more.And I've bought it in my SIPP - UK-speak for my retirement account.I'll explain how in a second.Let's just have a quick look at the bitcoin price, and note that we are once again breaking out to new highs.I know it feels like you are late to the bitcoin story, and yes we all wish we bought it at $10, when we first heard about it. But we didn't. We are where we are, and this story is a long way from being over.The next chapter in the odyssey is corporate adoption, and that story is just getting started.I explained the bitcoin corporate treasury model a fortnight ago here, and I've made the article freely available to all, so please take a look, but the TLDR is this.Following a template set by billionaire genius Michael Saylor, more and more companies are converting their treasuries to bitcoin as a means to store value and escape currency debasement. Not only that, they are issuing paper—stock, debt, convertible notes—and using the capital raised to buy more bitcoin. In effect, they are creating fiat money from nothing—it is a debt-based system, after all—and using it to buy a finite digital resource (one that, of course, cannot be created through debt).Many are scratching their heads and saying, “How can this be? It's not possible! It's a bubble.”What Saylor is actually doing, among other things, is exposing the flaws of debt-based fiat currency. There are now some 70 companies employing this strategy. This will eventually be a stampede, which I urge you to front-run. Corporations have much deeper pockets than private investors, meaning this latest cycle in bitcoin's mass adoption could become a mega mania.Shareholders welcome dilution if it means more bitcoin. The problem of corporate dilution has been flipped on its head. Once, if a company issued 20% more stock, you would expect the stock to fall by a concomitant amount to reflect the dilution. But if you're using paper to buy bitcoin, the reverse applies. You can't dilute enough. The purpose of a bitcoin treasury company is to acquire as much bitcoin as possible on behalf of all shareholders, by whatever means.Here is a case in point.Japanese hotel company Metaplanet (3350:TYO) had a small chain of low-budget hotels across Southeast Asia. Covid decimated the business, and it never fully recovered.A year ago, seeking a new direction, CEO Simon Gerovich began copying the Saylor model and started using his cash flow to buy bitcoin, then he began issuing debt. Since spring 2024, when the company began its strategy, the stock has risen thousands of percent from below ¥20 to north of ¥1,000. Last year, it was one of the best-performing companies in the world, if not the best. How about this for a chart?In the time that bitcoin has risen 60%, Metaplanet has risen more than 7,000%. (Saylor's Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) has also outperformed bitcoin. Bitcoin treasury companies give you gearing).With its crap currency and suppressed bond yields, bitcoin is an obvious place for Japanese investors to put their capital, except the government has got in the way.As with the UK, dumb regulations make it very hard for Japanese investors to buy bitcoin directly. (This came as a result of Mt. Gox, the first bitcoin exchange, which went bust after being hacked in 2013-14). To give you an idea how ponderous things are, to register with a bitcoin exchange in Japan , regulators demand you get a letter by snail mail to verify your address. Nuts.What's more, when the Japanese sell, they must pay capital gains tax at 55%.But Metaplanet is a Tokyo-listed company, so investors are buying that instead in their retirement accounts and via their brokers. Far less hassle. Just as, back in 2023, I urged UK readers to buy Strategy as a way to play bitcoin (we are up around 1,000%), Metaplanet has become Japan's bitcoin vehicle—indeed, much of Asia's.For several days in a row, the company has gone limit-up, and trading has been halted. The mother of all short squeezes seems to be taking place. It's the most shorted stock in all of Japan - and the short sellers are struggling to cover.This bubble has, quite literally, been caused by state regulation. We wouldn't be in this situation if it was easy to buy bitcoin. It's enough to make you a libertarian. It's amazing that both Japan and the UK were at the vanguard in bitcoin's early days. Satoshi Nakamoto had a Japanese name and used British English. Now we are both retarded (in both the old sense of the word and the new).How to profit from the maniaIn the UK, Avis-listed The Smarter Web Company (ISIN: GB00BPJHZ015) is now following suit, as several readers have pointed out to me (thank you). It's gone from 5p to 45p in a month. Currently, The Smarter Web Company has a market cap of £72 million, while it holds only £3 million in bitcoin (rounded numbers). Insane, you might think. Probably.Bitcoin Treasury Companies are outperforming bitcoin. They are the new sh*tcoins. So which bitcoin treasury company have I gone for?Here is how I am playing all this.

Tell your friends about this vid.You'll find the full list of North Sea Oil Cos here, in the second half of the article:Subscribe to this wonderful publication.If you are thinking of buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times, the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

At the Battle of Ideas last October I went head to head with comedians Simon Evans, Nick Dixon, Paul Cox, Cressida Wetton and Ethan Green to debate who is the greatest. I made the argument that it was John Cleese. My initial pitch has just been released, so here, for your Sunday morning consideration, it is. I ended up winning the debate, but it was a close shave.Who, in your view, is the greatest? And why? Please let me know in the comments.If you enjoyed this video, please give it a like, share it somewhere, all that stuff. Thank you!And please subscribe to this excellent Substack, if you haven't already.Speaking of comedy, there are still a handful of tickets left for my show on Tuesday, if you happen to fancy some subversive musical satire. That's the Mid-Year Review on Tuesday, May 20 in London in sunny East London. I am just going through the set list - it is going to be an epic night. In other news, for long-suffering shareholders in STLLR Gold, the company just announced its latest PEA and MRE. We have been waiting a long time, and the market did not like it one bit. While the resource, 11 million ounces, is huge, the CAPEX to build this mine, $1.87 billion, is even huger. At $3/oz in the ground, it's hard to think of a mining company that's as cheap. But those ounces are cheap for a reason. Here, in case you missed it, is my write up from yesterday.Until next timeDominicIf you are thinking of buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times, the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Today, using the political compass as our mapping tool, we explore diversity of opinion in BBC Radio comedy.If you enjoyed this video, please give it a like, share it somewhere, all that stuff. Thank you!And please subscribe to this excellent Substack, if you haven't already.In case you missed them, here are my pieces from earlier in the week.Gigs Coming UpHere is a list of shows I have coming up, in case of interest.The big one is The Mid-Year Review Wearing on next Tuesday, May 20 in London. Otherwise it's:* London, Crazy Coqs, May 14. SOLD OUT. (Waiting list only)* London, Backyard, May 20. The Mid Year Review Tickets here* Sevenoaks, Out of Bounds Comedy Club, July 11. Tickets here.* Bedford, Quarry Theatre, July 27. Tickets here.* London, Crazy Coqs, Sept 24. Tickets here.* London, Crazy Coqs, Nov 5. Tickets here.* London, Crazy Coqs, Dec 3. Tickets here.Happy Sunday! Until next time,DominicIf you are thinking of buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times, the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Fun fact: the only countries that own more bitcoin than the UK are the US (which own 207,000) and China (194,000). The UK has 61,000 bitcoin - worth almost $6 billion.They are mostly seized bitcoin, a lucky legacy from the early days when the UK was at the heart of bitcoin's evolution. (Remember Satoshi Nakamoto wrote in British English, the Times was referenced in the Genesis block, and many of the early conferences and meet-ups happened here). The FCA, in its wisdom, put a stop to all that, and so we fell behind.The stupidest thing our Chancellor can do, even with the parlous state of the national finances, is to sell those bitcoin. History would look back on her as an even greater fool than Gordon Brown for selling the national gold.This legacy has given the UK an extraordinary advantage in the global arms race that is bitcoin adoption. We would be mad to spurn it.Meanwhile, something extraordinary is taking place in the corporate world of bitcoin adoption, and I think it is going to accelerate rapidly very soon.It is being spearheaded by Michael Saylor, Chairman and Founder of Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR).I recommended MicroStrategy, as it used to be called, to readers back in August 2023, largely because it was a means to get bitcoin exposure via your broker. You wouldn't have to jump through all the hoops of buying bitcoin through exchanges, which the FCA has made so difficult.It has been a big win for readers, having more than 12x'd since we tipped it, outperforming bitcoin by a considerable margin. (Bear in mind it has undergone a 10-for-1 stock split since that article.)You really should upgrade your subscription :)Strategy now has some 555,450 bitcoin, meaning it has more bitcoin than any other publicly traded company in the world (excluding the ETFs, which now hold 1.35 million). Note again: there will only ever be 21 million bitcoins - rather less if you discount the 2.5 million that have likely been lost, and the 1.3 million that Satoshi never touched and probably never will).Saylor is also the world's most articulate and charismatic proponent of bitcoin. The man is a genius, and I do not use that word lightly. He has turned Strategy from a quiet, business intelligence software firm, which traded sideways for 20 years with a market cap less than $2 billion, into one of the most talked-about and traded stocks in North America with a market cap north of $100 billion. Options traders love it.His method for doing so - extraordinarily bold at the time, though now it looks easy - was brilliantly simple. He bought bitcoin. He was worried about the erosion of the value of the corporate treasury due to inflation and currency debasement. he started slowly. Then, in buying bitcoin and using it, as tends to happen, he caught the bitcoin bug. He started issuing paper - stock, debt, convertible notes - and bought more bitcoin. Just last week he bought another 1,895 bitcoin, funding the purchase with sales of common and preferred stock.In effect, he is creating money out of (almost) nothing and using it to buy the hardest money in the history of mankind. (Sorry, goldbugs - and you know I'm on your team - but bitcoin is harder money, because the supply is more finite).In doing so, he has enabled many of his investors to retire early.But he has also set in motion something quite extraordinary.Other companies are starting to follow his model. I'm surprised more haven't, but it takes extraordinary courage and vision to do what he did, as demonstrated by the fact that more companies haven't copied him. They're too cautious. Even with him having blazed the trail and shown the way.I think there's a very good chance Strategy becomes a trillion dollar company, while Michael Saylor becomes the world's richest man.To call the pre-bitcoin Strategy a zombie company is harsh, but it was not really going anywhere. Interestingly, it is zombie or near-zombie companies with large treasuries that are most likely to follow the Saylor model. Their need for a new direction is greater.Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) recently gave Saylor 5 minutes - 5 minutes! - to pitch his model to them, and duly ignored it. It is their loss. But Microsoft is Microsoft. At the moment, it doesn't need bitcoin, and it doesn't need to take the risk.GameStop (NYSE: GME), on the other hand, is a different matter. Remember GameStop from 2021 and all those memes during lockdown? The video game retailer had more than 3,000 outlets, and its business model was considered defunct. People buy games online now. But some private investors noted that the short position exceeded 100% of the issued shares of the company, and started buying. The ensuing short squeeze sent the stock from $17 to north of $500, and, it is said, almost broke Wall Street. (Not quite, but you get the point).The problem is GameStop's business model is somewhat defunct. This year, it closed over 400 stores. This week, it sold its Canadian outlets.But the company has about $4.7 billion in cash, low debt, and just raised another $1.5 billion, it announced.What does it do now?Bitcoin is the answer.We don't yet know how much it has bought, but its earnings call is on June 6, so perhaps we can expect an announcement then.The Japanese company Metaplanet (3350:TYO) is doing something similar. Formerly a zombie hotel company, now known as the “Asian MicroStrategy,” it has bought some 5,555 bitcoin. It bought another 555 this week after it issued its 13th set of bonds. The stock rose 40% on the news. Since spring 2024, when the company began its strategy, the stock has gone from below ¥20 to north of ¥600.The same thing is happening as happened to Saylor. Initially, the company bought it as a hedge against currency debasement. It discovered it was onto something. Now it is doing all it can to issue paper - bonds, warrants, stock, you name it - and use the proceeds to buy bitcoin.Perhaps GameStop will make a similar discovery.A year ago, Semler Scientific (NYSE: SMLR), which provides technology products and services for healthcare providers, made its first purchase of bitcoin: 581. It couldn't stop accumulating. Now it has 3,467 bitcoin.Sol Strategies (CA:HODL), my old company, is doing something similar for Solana, having just announced a $500 million convertible note. This company had a market cap of barely C$20 million a few months ago.What started as a trickle is starting to flow. The more companies that do this, the bigger the rush is going to get. Corporations are changing they way they store capital. They are changing the capital they store.The implications for how corporates hold their treasuries are one thing. The implications for fiat money are extraordinary. Issue debt - ie create money - and buy hard digital assets with it. This is going to be a big, big theme in the next few years.If you enjoyed this article, please like it, share it, all that stuff :) This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

I thought I might share a few random bits and bobs from my little life for you to ponder today, starting with various interviews.Here I am on the mighty James Delingpole's podcast, talking about most subjects, though squabbling about conspiracy theories.Then there is this interview with Jasmine Birtles for the Money Magpie podcast, talking mostly about gold and property. (Audio on Spotify; video on YouTube). Also this radio interview with ABC Australia, I was quite pleased with. Here it is.And, if bitcoin is your thing, here I am on the Discovering Bitcoin podcast.Right. That's all the interviews done.A Thief in our MidstTurning to matters closer to home, there is a beautiful cat, pictured below, which belongs to a Chinese lady, who lives three doors up. She visits my garden every morning (the cat not the Chinese lady) as I am getting my 15 minutes of sun, purrs seductively, gets stroked, and then wanders off on its day to do who knows what. If I leave the back door open, she will come into my house and visit me at my desk, stretch out luxuriantly and, if I pick her up, start padding my chest pleasantly. I thought we had become friends.Well, you can't trust anyone.I now discover this feline fiend has been sneaking into my son's room to steal his socks, which it then brings back to its owner three doors up. Here it is. Caught red handed.A Rare Trip to the TheatreOn Wednesday I went to see The Comedy About Spies in the West End. It's not something I would have normally gone to watch, but my friend Tom Woods had some tickets he couldn't use and so off I went with my next door neighbour. I thought it was terrific. Thank you Tom!I'm obsessed with farce. Always have been since I first watched Fawlty Towers as a little boy. (I actually did my university thesis on Fawlty Towers). It's my favourite form of theatre by a country mile. I love the precision of it, along with the heightened emotion and panic. Done well there is no better narrative form, in my opinion. Films like Midnight Run and TV series like Curb Your Enthusiasm, in my view, embrace farcical plot schemes. But if you want a farce in its purest form on film, watch What's Up Doc. Just the best.The premise of The Comedy About Spies is a little bit forced, but the jokes are fab, there are hundreds of them, one after the other, they are brilliantly executed and with incredible precision - it's wonderful to see a show this tight. By the end I even found myself moved by the characters. I LOLed many times. What can I say? It's really good. What's your favourite farce? Let me know in the comments.The South Africanisation of EverythingIn other, less positive news, on Tuesday evening I found myself walking down the Kilburn High Road for the first time in about 25 years. It was always a bit rough around the edges - up there with Elephant & Castle and Streatham High Road as one of London's most worst thoroughfares - but my God it was eye-opening as to where the UK is going / has gone.Litter everywhere, people off their faces, drugs being dealt openly on the street, beggars, a woman knocked over by a bloke cycling a Lime bike on the pavement, the bloke unapologetic, little trust between visible between people in this multi-cultural mayhem. Talk about lack of cohesion. (I drove through Harlesden the other night and that was bad too).It confirmed my theory of the South Africanisation of everything. (Actually it's my friend Alex's theory, but I have purloined it). It prompted me to dig up this piece from a couple of years back, which at one point was the most read piece on this ‘ere Substack. On re-reading it now, I'm rather proud of it. Recommended.The Secret History of GoldIn personal news, I am glad/relieved to say I submitted the final proofs for my new book on gold which comes out in August - the Secret History of Gold (I haven't actually announced it yet, which I will in due course). Writing a book is an enormous undertaking. Publicising it is an even greater one. I'm glad stage one is complete.How about this for a fact?In 1930 the price of gold was £4.25 per ounce, as it was in 1716 when Isaac Newton set the price over 200 years earlier. FOUR POUNDS 25p. Today it's £2,475 per ounce. From £4.25 to £2,475. That's how much we've been robbed by currency depreciation.How have they (successive governments) been able to get away with this?Because representative democracy does not work is why.Thank goodness for gold. Thank goodness for bitcoin. Speaking of which:As always, if you are looking to buy gold, the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here.The Mid-Year ReviewWearing my satirical comedy hat, I have a big gig coming up on May 20 in East London. These nights are usually pretty memorable - and for the right reasons.If you are free, come along. You can get tickets here. It would be great to see you.Finally, in case you missed this week's commentary, here it is:Have a lovely bank holiday weekend.Fun fact: Mayday - not as in the bank holiday, but as in the distress call for a ship or a plane is actually from the French, “M'aidez” - help me. May Day is an ancient festival to celebrate the beginning of summer (or as is the case in the UK this year, the end of summer), though socialists hijacked it with International Workers' Day. So now we are all crying “M'aidez” on May Day.Tell your friends about this entertaining catch up. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comI spoke about gold this week to ABC Australia. This little interview may be of some interest. Here it is. Meanwhile …It's as though the whole tariff thing never happened, the way stock markets are rallying. I think it's seven green days in a row now.Everybody is getting very excited about a rare technical signal we got last Thursday - - there have only been 16 of them since the S&P500 was created in 1957, including the latest on April 24, 2025. But this signal has a 100% reliability record, and has been followed by average 6-month returns of 15% and a 12-month returns of 23%. That's a pretty stellar record. So I just wanted to offer my 2p.The indicator - the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator (ZBT) - was first observed in the 1986 Martin Zweig book, Winning on Wall Street (which I confess to not having read). It occurs when a market swings from an oversold to an overbought reading within 10 trading days.Eight of them have occurred since the book was published: in 2004, in 2009 (shortly after the March lows at 666), in 2011 after the taper tantrum, in 2013, 2015, 2018 and in 2023 twice. Now we have one coming off the “tariff tantrum”, as I've just dubbed it.However, before you go out and gamble your entire life savings, note that back in 2015 technical analyst Tom McClellan published a detailed study of ZBT signals, which went back much further than the 1957 formation of the S&P500 - all the way to 1928.During the bear market of the 1930s Great Depression, there were multiple occurrences of the signal - 14 of them - and it was horribly unreliable: 10 led to losses or negligible gains, 2 preceded strong rallies, and 2 were flat. It was useless, in other words.So, in short, it's been good since 1957, but was rubbish before. A bit like stereos.There are plenty of reasons to remain cautious. The high levels of volatility we are witnessing are consistent with a bear market not a bull market. There are also high levels of uncertainty: what is actually going to happen with tariffs? Nobody quite knows. I'm not sure even the President. Plus we are going into May, usually a weak time of year for the stock market. And it may be that the consequences of Trump's tariff talk have not yet been felt in the US on the ground. One argument is that there has been a huge drop off in container ships leaving China. A container would typically take 30 days to reach LA, and another 10-20 days to get to the major cities - Houston, Chicago, New York et al. So the drop-off in container ships leaving China after Liberation Day won't be felt until mid-May. If there is a pick up in shipments, that wouldn't be felt till another month after that. Some are saying supply shortages are coming to the US. Have a read of this and see what you think. Markets usually price this kind of stuff in, but you never know. Cui bono?Among the sectors that should benefit from Trump's America first policies are US domestic mining and manufacturing. Here the regulatory environment is changing fast. Trump signed an executive order on March 20 with the aim of accelerating production of critical minerals. Federal agencies have actually been mandated to look to the US for priority metals - copper, gold, nickel, uranium and so - when they previously looked abroad. We are already seeing faster permitting. I hear that formerly dormant projects are seeing activity for the first time in years. Emails are being answered promptly, applications are being processed, even in states like California. This new environment is positive for oil and gas producers, miners, explorers and developers in the US. The problem is that commodity prices have dropped off a cliff. There's always a catch.Even so, one company that should benefit from this new macro environment is this potential multi-bagger.On which, note I wanted to give you a related heads up.

We have a video for your Sunday thought piece today, in which I walk round my local supermarket and identify all the foods which have seed oils (spoiler - almost all of them).Ever wondered which foods in your supermarket are packed with seed oils? Join me on a clandestine mission around my local shop to unveil some hard truths about pizzas, hummus, sausage rolls, and even granola. Seed oils infiltrate nearly every packaged item—and you should care. By the way, my original piece on seed oils is one of the most read articles on this substack, interestingly enough. Here is is, if you haven't already read it:I hope you find it useful and/or entertaining.Have a lovely Sunday.DominicPS ICYMI, here's my midweek commentary:As always, if you are looking to buy gold, the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comGold again today. I just can't stop writing about it.Another day. Another new high. We touched $3,500 in the early hours of yesterday morning.That's 27 new highs in the gold price so far this year.Yet there is still something about this bull market that doesn't feel right or complete: it's not confirmed by silver, which should be trading north of $50. Instead it's mired around $32. Nor is this bull market confirmed by the miners, which, in most cases, are nowhere near all-time highs.Nevertheless, on the basis of gold's price relative to equities, commodities and houses, as outlined last week, gold is starting to look expensive. Is it time to have an eye on the exit?In the short term, maybe. It's overbought. We are going into a weak time of year for gold (May to August). But that's why I like physical. It stops you trading!How about this for a chart?It now takes more work than at any time in the last 100 years to buy an ounce of gold.This is as much a function of declining wages in real terms, and the erosion in value of fiat, as it is the price of gold, but all the same it's pretty incredible: how we've all been lied to!There are, though, many signs that gold is now fully valued.But these are not normal times.And a “proper” bull market will see blow-off tops in silver and the miners. We don't have that yet.Let me give you six more reasons (ie largely previously unmentioned reasons) not to be selling your gold.1. You live in the UK.(This is one I have mentioned before). Do not be fooled by the fact that the pound has been performing relatively well in the foreign exchange markets this year. It has lost 37% of its purchasing power since 2020 and has repeatedly proven to be a rotten store of value.The interest on UK gilts is rising, meaning it is getting increasingly expensive for the government to pay for its own debt. We're above Liz Truss levels and the trend is rising.We've got high energy costs too.What this government is actually doing to rein in its spending is one thing. What needs to be done is something else. There is no Elon Musk taking the guillotine to it all. The scale of our government inefficiency, waste, corruption, misallocation of capital is both larger, relative to GDP, and more entrenched than in the US. At the level of government we are not even having a conversation about what needs to be done, let alone actually doing anything.Nor is there any likelihood of this country re-industriali sing. We'll just have to hope people buy our services, what few we offer. In the meantime we'll keep borrowing to pay for stuff.The only way is currency debasement. There has never been a Labour government that did not devalue sterling. Think this one will be any different? Do not store your wealth in sterling. They take enough from you in taxes as it is. Don't let them take any more.As always, if you are looking to buy gold, the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here.2. Chinese retailI'm endlessly wittering on about China's central bank buying gold, but one thing I confess I've overlooked is Chinese retail buying. Its real estate and stock markets have both been rubbish, the former especially, so they are buying gold instead. Then think about the sheer size of China's retail market: over a billion potential buyers. Never mind central bank buying, the potential scale of this thing is enormous. What if they al buy an ounce each?When do they stop buying and start selling? When their real estate and stock markets pick up … Meanwhile, China's central bank, the PBOC, which says it bought 5 tonnes last month, actually bought ten times that. (De-dollarisation, which is perhaps the biggest factor of the lot, except re-monetisation, does not even make it onto this list as I‘ve covered it so many times before).3. What about Western retail? What about Western institutions? Western retail and institutional investors have been slow to this bull market and are under-allocated. As my buddy Ross Norman says, “this gold rally has not, to date, been driven by retail investors buying coins and bars, high net clients clamouring for physical, nor institutions buying the gold ETF, not even speculative flows to any great extent. This has been an incredibly low participation rally. A stealth run even”. Portfolios are roughly 2% allocated to gold at present. They were four times that at the peak of the last bull market in 2011. That means a lot of room for more Western buying.Since the confiscation of Russian assets, central banks have bought every pullback to the 50-day moving average. But it's not just central banks now, retail and institutional investors the world over are coming to the party. And if you think they're underweight gold, wait until you see how underweight they are gold miners. (Even these are slowly starting to move - MTL anyone :)?)4. Gold vs the Nasdaq - OMGTrends in this ratio tend to go on for a long time, like ten years or more.How about this for a chart?

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comCongratulations to all who bought. Gold is now trading above $3,300. Goldman Sachs has raised its target to $4,000/oz. It's all going swimmingly. But nothing lasts forever.(Actually gold does, but you know what I mean).So, today, I want to ask: when do we sell our gold?To answer that question, I am going to look at some long-term ratios.How is gold looking relative to stocks, to other commodities and against house prices? (We'll look at gold versus house prices in the US, the UK and Australia).There is a strong argument, by the way, for never selling your gold, especially if you're in a country such as the UK with an unreliable national currency. If you don't need the money, keep the gold and pass it on to your heirs - and tell them to do the same. But macro conditions are not always as gold-friendly as they are now. See the 1980s and 90s for more details.What's more, given how these trade wars are unfolding, with unpayable levels of debt across the western world and China's extraordinary accumulation of gold, there is a significant chance - say, 25% - that gold ends up being remonetized somehow.(If China wants global reserve status for its yuan, it'll almost certainly have to make it exchangeable for gold - meaning higher gold prices. But even if not, all China has to do is declare it's real gold holdings, and the price will rocket).In the event of remonetisation, which also means some kind of crisis, gold prices will be dramatically higher. However, it's also likely that your gold would either be confiscated or heavily taxed, so that the gains from the revaluation (aka fiat devaluation) pass to the state rather than the citizen, as happened in the US under Roosevelt in 1933.But let us leave such speculation for another day.As always, if you are looking to buy gold, the bullion dealer I use and recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. Find out more here.Gold vs StocksI want to start with the Dow-to-Gold ratio: how many ounces of gold does it take to buy the Dow?There is much history in this chart. It's quite something.You can see how, most of the time, the ratio stays within that green band. It is only at points of maximum extremity that it goes beyond, such as:* The peak of the stock market in 1929* The Great Depression in 1932* The suppression of gold in the 1960s, ending with the collapse of the gold standard in 1971* The peak of 1970s gold mania, inflation, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan* The end of the gold bear market in 2000 and the peak of DotcomToday, with gold at $3,300 and the Dow at 40,000, it takes 12 ounces of gold to buy the Dow - and we are in the low- to mid-range of that green prediction band.At the peak of the last gold bull market in September 2011, the ratio reached 5.7.To reach such a level again, either the gold price would have to double (possible) or the Dow would have to halve (unlikely, I would have thought). Most probable is something along the lines of the Dow falling 25% and gold rising another 50%.Would this ratio ever go to 1:1, as it did in 1980? If so, we would be looking at a gold price in the tens of thousands.It's possible, I suppose.I think a ratio of 5-8 is a reasonable possible target. Here's a similar history of gold against the S&P 500:Today, we are at 1.7. It takes 1.7 oz to buy the S&P.The ratio reached 0.2 in the 1930s and 1940s. It went to 0.13 in 1980.I doubt we'll see that again.But that 2011 level of 0.6, or perhaps even a little below if things get really spicy, is not an unreasonable target, I suppose. That could mean the S&P500 at 4,200 and gold at $7,000/oz. Something like that.So that's some bull food for you.In the interests of balance, let's now put some bearish fodder on the menu.We'll start with gold versus oil - and the bad news. Then we'll look at gold and house prices.

I'm excited to share a brand-new video diving into one of the most gripping questions in finance and geopolitics: How much gold does America actually have? You may have read my piece on this from a few weeks back. Here it is in video form: a deep dive into the rumours, history, and high stakes surrounding US gold reserves—and what the upcoming audit might reveal. My thanks go to Will Freeman for all his hard work crafting this. Whether you're revisiting the mystery or uncovering it for the first time, this is a story that matters in today's world. Please let me know what you think in the comments.Given everything that is going on in the world, we recommend people to own some gold in the portfolio. Our recommended bullion dealer I recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.And if you missed yesterday's piece - also on gold - here it is. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Gold broke out to new highs on Friday: $3,237/oz. It is proving one of the prime beneficiaries of all the market mayhem, and no surprise. Gold is your hedge against government, and this is all a creation of government.Where to park capital? Equities are all over the place and will continue to be for the foreseeable future. With US authorities transparent about wanting it lower, the US dollar is not the safe haven it's been since 2007 in market sell-offs. As for treasuries, they've become a weapon in the trade wars.Inert gold, on the other hand, is neutral. It doesn't care which side of the trade wars, the culture wars, or any other wars you're on, and at the moment, it seems everyone wants a piece.China, we learn thanks to the sleuthing of analyst Jan Nieuwenhuijs, bought another 570 tonnes in 2024. Who knows how much more it has bought in 2025? To put that 570-tonne number in perspective, the UK's total holdings are 310 tonnes.Tell your friends.What's driving it all?This move in gold started shortly after the US confiscated $300 billion in Russian state holdings after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It hasn't been driven by retail. Central bank buying has pushed up the price.If you're not on Team US or Team G7, why own assets they can confiscate, like dollars or treasuries?Own gold instead. The US would have to invade you to take your gold—or send in Kelly's Heroes.In 1950, gold made up 70% of international reserves. In the noughties, it was just 10%. The dollar, meanwhile, reached 60%, with the euro at another 20%.Now gold is at 20%, the dollar at 45%, and the euro at 15%. The trend is clear, as this cool little video from Nieuwenhuijs and Money Metals shows:In my opinion, we'll be at 40% five years from now.Here's gold since late 2022. Every pullback has been bought. It's as though someone with deep pockets is saying, “Buy the pullback every time it hits the 50-day moving average (red line).”The UK seems to have been forgotten in this global rout, but I have little doubt the chickens of our shocking national finances and woeful productivity will soon come home to roost in the form of a sterling crisis. That's when we overlooked Britishers will be mighty glad we have our gold.Gold is now £2,475/oz. Another year of this, and we'll be north of £3,000.Summer is approaching, and May to August is typically when gold is weakest. Take advantage of pullbacks, is my advice. Do what the Chinese are doing. They're smarter than we are (when it comes to gold, at least).With oil having cratered, we should finally see gold miners fetch a proper bid. (They are already moving a little). Energy can represent 15% to 40% of mining costs. Lower costs and a higher price for the final product should mean they make more money, and thus higher share prices. (I'll cover miners again soon, I promise, though I am worried I'll jinx it)Here's something Charlie Morris observed—and you really should subscribe to his gold newsletter, Atlas Pulse; it's top dog in a crowded field - it's free. GDX is the largest gold mining ETF by far. Despite higher gold prices, it's seen outflows of 25% over the past year. When inflows start, these things will rocket. The sector is tiny relative to the capital out there.Here's three years of Brent, FYI. It's almost the reverse of gold. Good for mining.If you're interested in buying gold, by the way - and you should own some, if you don't already, given everything that is going on - the bullion dealer I recommend is the Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.A 2-minute video for your Sunday entertainmentI've got lots of content coming up over the next fortnight. I've just returned from two days of bitcoin conferences, so I'm fired up about that. I've got that gold mining piece to write. I have a lot more to say about gold. I have a fab video to share with you which I will send out tomorrow. And I want to explore where we should deploy capital in all this market mayhem: which sectors will do well in tariff wars, and which won't. So, plenty to come.You ought to subscribe.In the meantime, as it's the weekend, enjoy this silly little 3-minute vid I put together for my comedy Substack - not to be taken seriously - about alien invaders on planet Earth stealing our gold at the dawn of civilization. (Click the image below)Finally, if you're interested in gold and haven't already seen it, here's my guide to investing int he shiny stuff. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comI don't normally put out market commentary on a Sunday, especially on a Sunday evening, but the events of last week were so extraordinary I feel I have to.We are in full-on crash mode, it seems. The price action reminds me of the Covid panic or even 2008. It almost doesn't matter what you own. Portfolios around the world have been battered.The declines in the final two days of last week, since so-called “Liberation Day”, when President Trump announced his tariffs, are roughly as follows:* Bitcoin: -1%* Gold: -3%* S&P 500: -9%* Nasdaq: -10%* Brent Crude: -12.5%* Copper: -13% (phew!)Magnificent Seven:* MSFT: -6%* GOOGL: -7%* AMZN: -13%* META: -14%* NVDA: -15%* TSLA: -15%* AAPL: -17%We are, of course, very long gold and bitcoin here at The Flying Frisby, so I guess we've come out of this comparatively unscathed. What's more, we have a good allocation to wealth preservation in the Dolce Far Niente portfolio. But our speculative positions, like everyone's, have been hit, and I'm angry with myself for not getting more defensive sooner. I've been saying for some time I don't like the price action one bit- eg here and here - and the words of that freaky preacher keep ringing in my ears.In any case, there's no point beating myself up. Life is easy in hindsight. Investing is even easier.I spent considerable time on Friday and Saturday reading and watching interviews, trying to understand exactly what these tariffs are about and what the implications are, and I think I have come up with something of a roadmap.We'll start by explaining the plan. Then we'll look at what comes next. And, finally, we'll look at what to do with some of our recent speculations.Why our opinion is irrelevantI'm a free-trade guy, or at least I was. I'm not quite sure what I am any more. But I'm not going to waste my time - or yours - here with arguments about whether tariffs are a good thing or not. There's no point. My time - and yours - would be as well spent howling at the moon. As far as I know, Donald Trump isn't a reader of The Flying Frisby. He knows his own mind and he's not going to turn to this Substack, or any of our social media feeds, for policy advice.Don't be like DT. Subscribe to the Flying Frisby.Tariffs are here, and they're here to stay. Trump is attempting a major economic redesign - the kind of reset that those who rail against economic injustice have been calling for for years. Now it's here, and as we look at our portfolios, many of us aren't so sure we want it.What I want to understand, first, is the logic behind the tariffs, then their implications, so we can best navigate them.The first thing to note I've already said: Trump isn't going to backtrack. As I watched tumbling share prices on Friday, I thought to myself—he's going to backtrack. He has to. But Trump isn't the Conservative Party, or indeed the Labour Party, changing tack at the slightest sign of discontent. Critics say he'll cave if stocks keep tanking, I'm not so sure. His track record suggests otherwise, and he's put a loyal and strong team together to back him up and implement his plan.He's going to give his tariffs longer than a couple of days to have an impact.Many say Trump hasn't properly thought this through. Of course, he has. He's been thinking about it night and day for years. He'll have been thinking about little else as he wrestles with the problem of how to reinvigorate industrial America. That doesn't mean his plan will work, but the idea he hasn't thought about it is just a facile invention of Trump perma-critics to use against him.Trump may be a bit of a clown - he has a comedic instinct and can't resist a gag - but he's not stupid. Clowns rarely are.Why Trump's doing what he's doingTrump intensely dislikes the decimation of industrial America, which began in the 1980s and still continues, with the outsourcing of manufacturing to Asia and elsewhere. Even 40 years ago , he was giving interviews about this (hence why I say he has thought it through) and he wants to restore it. That's part of what he means when he says, “Make America great again.”He can see that while the American coasts may have thrived, thanks largely to finance and tech, much of what is in between has not. This is the America he wants to make great again.There are two reasons he wants to revive American industry. First, is that he believes the model by which America takes on debt to buy cheap stuff from China is unsustainable and has to stop - and the sooner the better. So it's for the good of the American economy. Second, is for reasons of security. While China and the US may be trading partners now, they are also rivals, and if your rival is making your essential military and strategic equipment and components, whether it's semi-conductors, industrial and consumer electronics, pharmaceuticals or battery and energy storage systems, you have a big problem on your hands. Covid exposed just how fragile supply chains are, and Trump has taken it as an early warning sign.Something very similar, as readers of Daylight Robbery will know, happened in the US after its War of 1812 with the British, a war that lasted three years. The war badly exposed US over-reliance on British industrial goods, so the US introduced tariffs in 1816 to try and nurture and grow its own industry. Those tariffs ended up having grave long-term consequences (they were a major factor in the lead up to the civil war - but that was 45 years later). In the short term, they worked. (More on this here).Coming to America“Come and build your factories in the US,” Trump is saying. “Then you won't pay tariffs. Relocate from China, Mexico, Vietnam.”Here's a case in point. Jaguar Land Rover has already announced it's halting shipments to the US for one month. Now, this company's management - remember its recent rebrand? (see below) - is on the opposing side of the culture war to Donald Trump and MAGA, so that is one factor at play. But when I wrote my piece about how good self-driving Teslas are, a lot of people commented that the Jags are better. I don't know—I haven't been in one. But for sure, Jaguar Land Rover won't want to lose momentum or network effect in this all important arms race, particularly while Tesla is struggling: 45% off its recent highs, victim to nationwide vandalism and Elon Musk no longer the darling but the villain of the eco-warrior left. So what does Jaguar do now? Not sell into the all-important US markets? Pay 25% tariffs? Or build a factory stateside? I think the answer is fairly obvious.Whatever it chooses to do, it's going to take longer than a couple of days.With DOGE and the shrinking of the US state, meanwhile, there'll be plenty of workers to fill those new positions. As the US state shrinks, its private sector grows. That's the idea, anyway.His tariffs may lead to higher prices for American consumers, as many have pointed out, but not as high as widely thought, argues Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in this recent interview with Tucker Carlson (a recommended watch, by the way). Bessent's calculations are that tariffs won't gouge consumers as much as feared. What's more, the revenue from tariffs could eventually enable lower levels of taxation back home, which will further ease pressure on US citizens, those who work at least.What about the upheaval Trump tariffs cause to the rest of the world? Not his problem. America first.Yet he's creating enormous uncertainty, and markets are tanking. On Friday, markets were in full panic mode, and the baby was being thrown out with the bathwater. What about that?The amazing stat which shows why Trump won't give two hoots about the stock market - for nowAt this point, I want to press upon you one of the most telling statistics I've seen for some time:* The richest 1% of Americans own 50% of US stocks, worth $23 trillion.* The bottom 50% of U.S. adults hold only 1% of stocks, worth $480 billion.If you expand to the top 10%, that group holds 87% of stocks, valued at $36 trillion. If I'm correctly inferring Bessent's comments, at this current point, Trump doesn't care about Wall Street, or Silicon Valley, or the parts of the US economy that have become so rich over the past 40 years. It's the bottom 50 - or even 80% - that Trump is concerned with. They hardly own any stocks, so the market mayhem won't matter so much to them. Wall Street has made good for decades. It can suffer a bit of pain while Main Street gets rebuilt.It's worth noting, by the way, that US equities were enormously overvalued when Trump took office, so some kind of correction had to happen anyway. The Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was at its third highest level in history (the only times it was higher was 2000 and 2007, and we all know what happened next). That's why Warren Buffett built up his enormous cash position two months ago ($330 billion). Buffett, by the way, really is a genius.Best to get the inevitable correction out of the way early in the Presidency. What's more, as Bessent points out, these market declines began several weeks ago with China's AI announcement of DeepSeek, the app that can do everything ChatGPT and Grok can do with much lower power use. Prior to that, the Magnificent Seven had driven the extraordinary gains seen in the S&P 500 over the previous 18 months. Strip them out, and the picture was much less rosy. (Now the Mag7're down 30-45%).Trump's announcement may have pricked the bubble, but a bubble is still a bubble and if one thing doesn't burst it, something else will.Trump's plan, meanwhile, (and I'm not saying it'll work, everyone will have their opinion) is not to boost the stock market. It is to reset the economy. The economy and the stock market are not the same thing.Some numbersThe US is trapped in a vicious debt spiral.$36 trillion is the current US National Debt. The US will spend $6 trillion this year, while only collecting $4 trillion in tax revenue. So there is a $2 trillion deficit. It will borrow the difference, and the debt will grow to $38 trillion. The DOGE plan is reduce the deficit by 1 trillion by getting rid of waste, corruption and more. The tariff plan is to raise another half trillion in revenue. Plus, as a result of tariffs, more business relocates to the US, which also increases revenue. Mass deregulation will also make doing business easier and further add to both economic growth and tax revenue. Then there is Trump citizenship plan. According to Grok, 1 million people worldwide could realistically afford to buy a US residency for $5 million. Let's say 10% of them did that. That's another $500 billion and the $2 trillion deficit is eradicated. Suddenly the US is running a surplus.This all means the US gets in a better position to lower taxes, which will further increase revenue (the golden rule of Daylight Robbery), because trade will increase as a result. Trump could lower corporation taxes to 15% which would be a lot more attractive than the rates of 20-30% paid in Europe. So business relocates to the US. He could lower income taxes, especially for high earners, thereby attracting higher earners to the US. Meanwhile, the cost of all that debt starts to come down, thereby freeing up even more capital.And, suddenly, you are in a virtuous cycle.These numbers make it look easy. But to get there takes an enormous fight - standing up to vested interests, taking on a cultural establishment that detests you, the media, the woke, Trump Derangement Syndrome and so on. It's not easy, and it requires a lot of backbone. The three essential keys to the Trump resetSo what fundamentals does this economic reset need, and how does the US get there?First, it needs cheap energy. Cheap energy is fundamental to economic growth: economies need energy. That's happening. Crude has fallen more than 10% since “Liberation Day”. Falls were turbocharged when, on Thursday, 8 OPEC nations made the surprise announcement that they were ending output cuts and increasing supply. Plus we have the domestic policy of drill baby drill. What with the plethora of natural gas and other shale energy co-products, we're going to see a lot of cheap energy. (Which is going to make our own Ed Miliband's high-energy-cost policies look even more deranged.)Second, it needs a cheaper dollar. A weaker dollar will encourage investment and relocation from overseas (it makes the US cheaper). That's happening too. Indeed, what was so unique about this week's panic is that the dollar—usually the first port of call in a financial storm—didn't rise (at least not at first). Here is the US dollar index. It's coming down. It's already down almost 10% from its highs. That means America just got 10% cheaper to invest in. A move back to the low 90s, or even below, would be ideal.What is the third component?And what next for markets?

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comWe have more stock tips for you today with multibag potential.But first, let's get political.Remember how the Conservative Party from David Cameron onwards effectively abandoned the right and became social democrats?Increased state spending everywhere, so that instead of shrinking the state they grew it, more taxes, higher taxes, more planning and regulation, more quangos and experts, ‘owning' the NHS, green subsidies, Net Zero, social liberalism, MPs who didn't represent the views of the membership, increased immigration, weaker policing, increased crime - and so on. Those were the days, eh?The Tories were so bereft of first principle, and so terrified of the left, particularly the left-wing media, that they pandered to it and eventually became it.I remember going on podcasts 18 months ago making the argument that Labour would do the same thing and lurch right. After an insert-disparaging-adjective-here first six months, which saw Prime Minister Keir Starmer's approval ratings drop below even those of Rishi Sunak, we are starting to see that happen.With the books not balancing, suddenly spending is being cut. Not by a lot, but it's happening. Starmer has axed NHS England, something the Tories would never have dared do, criticising “two layers of bureaucracy”. We have what the Independent calls “Austerity 2.0” with cuts to disability benefits and welfare spending. The foreign aid budget has been cut to spend more on defence. All of a sudden he is as champion of small businesses. Heck, he's even fixing the potholes. Meanwhile, he is boasting on X about “securing our borders” and “removing illegal immigrants at the highest rate in 8 years”.“If you don't have the right to be in this country, then you shouldn't be here. It's that simple,” he said yesterday. Does that sound like a Labour leader or Nigel Farage?When fantasy meets realityThe next right-wing shoe to drop is fossil fuels.Ed Miliband's fantasies of climate justice and clean energy are slowly being exposed. His green delusion is going to be abandoned. If an economy is to grow, then it must consume more energy, not less. Wind and solar power are too expensive and too unreliable, never mind the damage they do to the environment and the carbon footprint they leave. They are already pledging to paint offshore wind farms black because of all the birds they are killing. Finally, an admission of the wildlife these things destroy.Offshore wind is not going to replace oil and gas. Fossil fuels remain a better, cheaper, cleaner and more reliable source of energy. For an already heavily taxed country that is living well beyond its means, where growth is the only thing that can save it, with the added pressure of Trump tariffs soon coming, needlessly expensive energy is not possible.The Reform party is making the cost of Net Zero one of its main lines of attack. All Labour has to do is further abandon the left of its party, a process which is already half complete, just as the Tories abandoned the right, and let Miliband go, which is inevitable anyway, and the Reform weapon is blunted.All the above is preamble to my main argument today. North Sea oil and gas is going to stage a comeback. This is going to happen, as sure as eggs are eggs. Political and economic reality mean it is inevitable. Otherwise, the national finances, and with them the Labour Government, evaporate. Power is more important to politicians than adhering to any zealotry, green or otherwise.The ban on new North Sea oil and gas licenses will be lifted. The taxes on North Sea oil companies will be lowered to incentivise activity (it's effectively 78% at present. Are legislators demented?). And all those companies that saw their businesses and market caps decimated by this deluded religion are going to make a comeback. Some will multiply many times over. That's what I think is going to happen, anyway. This also means, for we observers on the foothills of inconsequence, the time is nigh to buy North Sea oil and gas companies. So what are these companies and how do we invest?

If you enjoyed this video, please share it.A rant for you this Sunday morning. Enjoy!If you are buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times - and you should if you do not already own some - as always I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.By the way, in case of interest, I have the following comedy shows coming up int he next fortnight.* Bath, April 3. Tickets here. SOLD OUT (Waiting list only)* Hampshire, Bordon. April 12. Tickets here.* London, Crazy Coqs, May 14. SOLD OUT. (Waiting list only)* London, Backyard, May 20. The Mid Year Review Tickets here* London, Crazy Coqs, Sept 24. Tickets here.* London, Crazy Coqs, Nov 5. Tickets here.* London, Crazy Coqs, Dec 3. Tickets here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

How I boosted my testosterone with no TRT—exercise, sleep, fasting and diet.Based on this article: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

From this week's Moneyweek Magazine …Two rumours have been swirling around the gold markets for many years. Some have called them conspiracy theories. Others note that conspiracy theories often prove true. What's the difference between conspiracy and truth? About 30 years.The first is that China has far more gold than it says it does. We actually now know this to be true. The other is that America has far less than the 8,133 tonnes of gold it says it possesses.This rumour has been doing the rounds since 1971, when Peter Beter, a lawyer and financial adviser to former president John F. Kennedy, said he had been informed that gold in Fort Knox had been removed. He went on to write a best-selling book about it: The Conspiracy Against the Dollar.The problem is a total lack of transparency on the part of the US authorities, something that according to current US president Donald Trump, and the head of the Department of Government Efficiency, Elon Musk, will not be the case for much longer.Roosevelt triggers a boomBut to understand this situation we need to go back in time, all the way to 1933, when US president Franklin D. Roosevelt famously devalued the US dollar and revalued gold upwards by 70%, from $20 an ounce (oz) to $35/oz, in order to bolster growth. US gold reserves would increase to unprecedented levels in the next 15 years.Some of the gold came from US citizens. It was now illegal for them to own gold and they had to hand any they owned over to the authorities. Some came from the fact that the government then bought all US mined supply (the upwards revaluation of gold triggered a mining boom) and any gold imported to the US assay office. The US even began buying gold on foreign markets to protect the new higher price.Thus US official holdings in 1939 on the eve of World War II totalled 15,679 tonnes. They would only increase. With Nazi invasions, European nations sent all the gold they could across the Atlantic, either for safekeeping or to buy essential supplies; 1949 saw the high watermark of US gold holdings – 22,000 tonnes, as much as half of all the gold ever mined.In July 1944, with it clear that the Allies were going to win the war, representatives from the 44 Allied nations met at the Mount Washington Hotel in Bretton Woods for the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference to design a new system of money for the new world order.International accounts would be settled in dollars, and those dollars were convertible to gold at $35/oz. Countries had to maintain exchange rates within 1% of the US dollar. In effect, the US was on a gold standard, and the rest of the world was on a dollar standard.The system relied on the integrity of the US dollar to work, and that integrity was in question, even before the end of the war. The June 1945 Federal Reserve Act reduced required gold reserves for notes outstanding from 40% to 25%, and against deposits from 35% to 25%. Between 1944 and 1954, because of increased supply, the dollar lost a third of its purchasing power, though the $35 Bretton Woods price remained.“Six major European countries,along with the UK, co-ordinated sales to suppress the gold price”US government spending was soaring, and it began running balance of payments deficits – made worse by the costs of foreign aid, America's new welfare systems and maintaining a military presence in Europe and Asia. Gold began leaving the US. By 1965 reserves had fallen by 9,500 tonnes, down 40% from the 1949 peak.Successive US administrations tried to stop the outflow, without success. Dwight D. Eisenhower banned Americans from buying gold overseas, Kennedy imposed the “equalisation tax” on foreign investments, and Lyndon B. Johnson discouraged Americans from travelling altogether. “We may need to forgo the pleasures of Europe for a while,” he said.Fears that the dollar would devalue following the election (won by Kennedy) sent the gold price in London to $40/oz. The Bank of England, in collusion with the Federal Reserve, began increasing gold sales to keep the price down.Thus did the London gold pool begin, with the addition of six major European nations the following year (Belgium, France, the Netherlands, West Germany, Italy and Switzerland), which co-ordinated sales to suppress, or “stabilise”, to use their word, the gold price and defuse unwanted, upward market pressure.But the pool struggled against growing demand. In 1965, an ounce of gold was still $35, but the purchasing power of the dollar had decreased by 57% from 1945, while gold reserves had also fallen sharply. The culprit was the costs of the US government, in particular the Vietnam War and president Johnson's enormous welfare spending.If you are buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times - and you should if you do not already own some - as always I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.Bretton Woods under pressureWith inflation rising at home and international confidence in the dollar waning, these programmes were not just costly – they undermined Bretton Woods. Non-American nations felt aggrieved that they had to produce $100 worth of goods and services to get a $100 bill, when the US could just print one. French finance minister Valéry Giscard d'Estaing called it “America's exorbitant privilege”.President de Gaulle, meanwhile, had had enough. He ignored the pool to turn all French dollars and sterling balances into gold. The French even sent battleships to New York to collect their gold. De Gaulle became the target of several assassination attempts – coincidence, I'm sure. There were rather more US dollars in the world than there was gold to back them, he felt, and he was right.By 1967, US foreign liabilities were $36bn, but it only had $12bn in gold reserves – a third of what was needed to back the dollar. West Germany, Spain and Switzerland began demanding gold for their dollars. Even the British, with sterling going through one of its quadrennial collapses, asked the Americans to prepare $3bn worth of Fort Knox gold for withdrawal. Private gold demand was overwhelming.“The floor of the Bank of England's weighing room collapsed under the weight of all the bullion”In November 1967, the British government devalued the pound by 14%, from $2.80 to $2.40, in order to “achieve a substantial surplus on the balance of payments consistent with economic growth and full employment”.In that month, the London market saw greater bullion demand than it would typically see in nine: as much as 100 tonnes per day. To stem demand they banned forward buying, leverage and the purchase of gold with credit. The pool still lost 1,400 tonnes that year, more than a whole year's mined supply.Selling pressure on the US dollar only increased when the Viet Cong and North Vietnamese People's Army of Vietnam launched the first of a series of surprise attacks on US armed forces in South Vietnam in January 1968.Desperate to prop up the system, US military aircraft flew tonne after tonne of gold to RAF Lakenheath from where it was trucked in military convoys to the back entrance of the Bank of England: at one point the floor of the Bank of England's weighing room collapsed under the weight of all the gold.You really should subscribe to this amazing publication.Shoring up the systemIn the four days between 11 March and 14 March 1968, some 780 tonnes were sold to market. The effort to protect the price was deemed hopeless. On 15 March, UK chancellor Roy Jenkins declared a bank holiday, and the gold market was closed for a fortnight, “at the request of the United States”.Zurich also closed. Paris stayed open with gold trading at a 25% premium. All in all, the final 15 months saw over 3,000 tonnes sold to market to protect that $35 price. The pool had lost more than an eighth of its reserves.Two days later, in the rushed-through Washington Agreement, governors of the central banks in the gold pool declared there would be one fixed gold marketfor official government transactions at $35/oz and another, free-market, price for private transactions. Not for the last time, central bankers were living in a world of their own.Gold is one thing. Gold standards are another. They tend not to last, particularly bogus ones such as this one, under which citizens themselves did not handle gold. Keynes called them barbarous – ironic, perhaps, given that he was one of the architects of this one.In August 1971, president Nixon took the US off the gold standard, a “temporary” measure that remains more than 50 years later. For the first time in history, gold – Switzerland aside – played no part in the global monetary system.Of course it was the fault of the speculators. It always is. “I have directed the secretary of the Treasury to take the action necessary to defend the dollar against the speculators,” Nixon said, deflecting responsibility, and “to suspend temporarily the convertibility of the dollar into gold”.High time for a US gold auditThe US keeps its gold in four places: at Fort Knox, Kentucky (roughly 56% of its 8,133 tonnes); at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (8%); and the remaining 36% at the mints in Denver and West Point. There has not been a proper public audit of this gold since 1953. There have been internal audits, especially between 1974 and 1986, but these were not transparent.There are many people, among them gold experts, who do not believe the gold is there. The US spent it trying to suppress the gold price in the 1960s, theysay. But in this new age of American transparency, both Trump and Musk have repeatedly pledged that this gold will be audited.There is talk of it being done on a livestream. Trump has even suggested the gold has been stolen. “We're actually going to Fort Knox to see if the gold is there,” he said, “because maybe somebody stole the gold. Tonnes of gold.”They've been making such light of it, one has to assume they know the gold is there. Musk was laughing about the conspiracies on podcasts, and he even posted a picture of a Fort Knox starter kit: a brick and some gold spray. I can't see how they would be joking if there were any serious doubts.Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, has said quite categorically that the gold is there. The last audit was in September 2024, he said in a recent Bloomberg interview, before looking down the camera and assuring the US people that “all the gold is present and accounted for”. But this would only have been an internal audit, and it would not have been a full audit.According to the US Mint, “the only gold removed has been very small quantities used to test the purity of gold during regularly scheduled audits”. No other gold has been transferred to or from the depository “for many years”. How long is many years, though? As far back as the 1960s?It's quite astonishing just how secretive the whole thing is. They opened the vaults for a congressional delegation and certain members of the press to view the gold in 1974. There were rumours swirling about then too. “We've never done this before and we'll probably never do it again,” said the then director of the US Mint Mary Brooks.“The gold commonly confiscated under Roosevelt contained some copper, and is not pure enough for sale”Then in 2017, during Trump's first administration, Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin and Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell were invited to view the gold. “The gold was there,” Mnuchin said. He is “sure” nobody's moved it. There are “serious security protocols in place”. But there are more than 4,000 tonnes in Fort Knox. A tonne would be about the size of a medium to large suitcase. Did he see all 4,000 of them?The other big issue is the purity of the gold. What is there might not all be of good delivery quality, meaning it would not be readily accepted in international bullion markets. If much of the gold is the bullion Roosevelt confiscated in the 1930s, it will be in the form of “coinmelt”: melted down coins.The commonly confiscated coins, such as the $20 double eagle, were only 90% pure and mixed with copper to make them harder. When melted down, they were not always properly refined to modern standards, while the bars they were melted into weighed 320-330 ounces, not the 400 oz bars of good delivery standard today. In practice, this means Fort Knox gold would not be accepted without additional processing.But, until a proper audit takes place, this is all speculation, albeit reasoned speculation. We don't know the full facts. The reasons given for not conducting a full audit are flimsy: we don't need to, it would be too much of an undertaking. Please!If the US gold turns out not to be there, then the gold price goes up – potentially a lot. If it is there, it's business as usual.For now, I'd say the markets are behaving as though it is business as usual. They are climbing, and every dip is being bought, largely, it seems, by central banks (especially in Asia), who are diversifying their holdings and de-dollarising. But this audit cannot come quickly enough.Large volumes of physical gold - over 1,000 tonnes by some counts - have recently been transferred from London to New York. One theory is that was the gold was transferred in anticipation of tariffs. Another is that it was the US buying ahead of its audit. We will soon find out.Finally, I would just like to debunk one theory doing the rounds. US gold is currently marked to market at $42/oz. After the audit, those 8,133 tonnes – assuming they are there and of good delivery quality – could be marked to market at current prices, meaning a significant uplift in the value of holdings.The theory doing the rounds is that Treasury ecretary Bessent will use some of the upwards revaluation to monetise the balance sheet – not unlike how Roosevelt did in 1933 – to create funds for, among other things, the strategic bitcoin reserve. But Bessent has quite clearly stated that is not his intention.This article first appeared in Moneyweek Magazine. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comEverything looks decidedly shaky all of a sudden. Trump is swinging the wrecking ball. Markets are tanking. What to do?A bear market was long overdue, but now that we are teetering on the edge of one, it doesn't feel very nice.Markets don't like uncertainty, and there is a lot of it about at the moment. President Trump likes to create it. It's one of his negotiating tactics. And he is creating one heck of a lot of it.Unlike his previous presidency, when he made a lot of noise but wasn't able to get much actually done, this time around he seems to be shaking up a world order that has been in place for decades, both internationally and at home.Is he serious about America no longer being the world's policeman? It seems he is. It began with a global freeze on most U.S. foreign aid as part of his “America First” policy, and USAID's closure is reverberating internationally. Many have lost their jobs; some 10000 grants and contracts have been canceled, disrupting global aid programmes and more. So much of it was illegitimate, bent, or wasteful. Elon Musk called it “beyond repair” and an “evil criminal organization,” boasting of feeding it “into the wood chipper.” Maybe so. Doesn't mean ending it will be easy. Anything but.There have been cuts to the federal workforce; numerous bodies, such as the Social Security Administration and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, have been targeted.But at present, the administration is moving quickly and breaking things. Many support what is happening. Many don't. Nobody knows quite how far this will go, but it seems a lot further than anyone anticipated.Europe is going to have to pay its way, and he really means it. What are the implications of that?What is going to happen between Russia and Ukraine? What deal does he have in mind? Will Presidents Putin and Zelensky go along with it?What's going on with tariffs? Are they really about the revenue (I don't think so) or about something else? What are the implications there?What is the reaction from Trump's political opponents going to be? They've started attacking Tesla factories. They hate him so much they could not even bring themselves to applaud when a terminally ill child with brain cancer was given an honorary Secret Service award. Whether it's in the courts or on the streets, they will oppose everything he does. They would rather have corruption, waste, and no transparency than have Donald Trump.The amounts that have been saved so far are disputed. DOGE claimed $55 billion in the first month. Others have it closer to $15 billion. Either is peanuts in the context of the $2 trillion figure Elon Musk touted during the campaign and reiterated post-inauguration. This would represent roughly 30% of the federal budget ($6.75 trillion 2024). We are a long way from that. There are a thousand billions in a trillion.Musk is aiming for $1 trillion to be cut from the U.S. deficit in the first year. We are a long way from that too. Even with all the cuts, one Reuters analysis shows that spending has actually increased under Trump, largely due to the increase in interest payments on that extraordinary $36 trillion U.S. national debt. President Joe Biden increased that debt by $8 trillion—31%. Though, to be fair to him, Trump increased it by almost $8 trillion (40%) in his first term.I remember when it was below $10 trillion, and that seemed like a lot.If you are buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times - and you should if you do not already own some - as always I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.Was he right?Remember this freaky interview I posted back in October?The preacher man who described Trump's assassination with uncanny accuracy, then talked about a mighty crash. People are always predicting crashes and getting it wrong, but this guy was amazing.Aaaaagh. Scary!As I say, if there is one thing markets don't like, it is uncertainty. And we have that in abundance. Nobody quite knows how this is going to pan out. I, for one, am incredibly optimistic. The sooner the system is drained of corruption, waste, rent-seeking, non-productive endeavour, crony capitalism, non-accountability, and all the rest of it, the better, in my view.But I recognise there is a mountain, and more, of upheaval to get through first.Thank goodness we have such a large allocation to gold. It is behaving like a trooper. Who knows? A mining boom might even come out of this.But the stock market does not like it one bit.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comBeware: imposters! Anyone appearing to be me, but soliciting you to chat on Telegram or WhatsApp or anywhere is NOT ME. It is someone trying to scam you out of your money.Some subscribers have reported difficulties upgrading their subscription to Lifetime. If so, please message me on Substack or reply to this email and I will put it right. Because of this I am extending the offer for a couple more days.We are talking testosterone today.I posted this video on YouTube the other day of me breaking the Lewisham dead hang record. Dead hangs are not the greatest spectator sport, so it might be one to watch sped up. In any case, somebody in the comments asked if I had been taking some kind of testosterone supplement. The answer is, “sort of.”Testosterone is something I have been meaning to write about for a while, and it is something I have been experimenting with, so here goes.I haven't had TRT - testosterone replacement therapy - or anything like that, but I have been looking to improve my testosterone levels, and I think I have had some success.Getting your levels up, whether man or woman, will make you feel A LOT better.Physically, higher testosterone levels mean more energy, more muscle, more fat burn, better sleep, better cardiovascular health and blood flow, better bone density and less inflammation. These are all super important once you pass 50.You're stronger, basically.Mentally, with more testosterone, your concentration improves, you become more targeted - that's another way of saying your focus improves (I don't like the word focus) - your spirits are higher, your confidence improves, you get bolder, more assertive and more driven. I have noticed improvements to all of the above.One thing, in particular, I have also noticed is a lower tolerance of fools, a higher appetite for risk and much more of a DNGAF attitude, which is something I've always wished I had more of. I had a blood test in September 2023 and it showed my testosterone level as 577 ng/dL. The normal range is 200-750ng/dL. An athlete in his early 20s might have levels above that. So my levels were above average - upper-middle - without being amazing. Testosterone peaks at 18 (probably why young men get into such trouble), then declines ever after. After 30 it declines at 1% per annum. But once you pass 45 - take note - there is an acceleration in decline. That is what we need to address.I haven't done another test, but I know my levels have improved. I can feel it. And I think I am well above 600ng/dL.Here is how to improve your testosterone1. ExerciseLift weightsRegular strength training boosts testosterone production, especially in the short term. Resistance training stimulates muscle growth, which signals the body to release more testosterone. Intensity matters - heavier weights with lower reps has a bigger impact. Compound movements such as squats, press-ups, bench presses and deadlifts are particularly effective.SprintSprints are more effective than light jogging. In fact, any kind of HIIT is good. I usually jog for 2 or 3 miles then do 4 30-second sprints up a hill at the end. It takes me about half an hour in total. Short, maximum-effort sprints (even just 6-10 seconds at 90-100% effort) with full recovery periods (1-2 minutes) work best. Play some competitive sportAny kind of competitive sport is good. Tennis, table tennis even. I still play footy - 6-a-side. I've found in the last year I am going in for challenges that I would not have attempted ten years ago.But, of the above three, resistance training is the most important.2. Other habitsSleepGood sleep is as important as exercise, perhaps even more so. The majority of your testosterone is produced when you are asleep. 7-9 hours is optimal. 5-6 hours and your levels drop by 10-15% in just a few days. One 2011 study found young men restricted to 5 hours of sleep had testosterone levels closer to someone 10-15 years older.My guide to sleeping better is here, but … go to bed an hour earlier.Use mouthtape when you sleep - breathing through your nose is better for testosterone. Lord knows why but that's what the bros say.What next?

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comAt the moment it is relentless. I suppose I should take it as a compliment, but every day, sometimes several times per day some new account masquerading as me pops up. I block, report and delete as soon as I get wind of it, but I can't be in front of my computer 24/7. Please be aware: I don't use Telegram. I never invite people to chat on WhatsApp. So if somebody who appears to be me solicits you to join them on Telegram, WhatsApp or anywhere else, it is not me. It is someone who is trying to scam you.Let me start today's note with a very warm welcome to the many new readers who have signed up the Flying Frisby. Many have signed up because of the recent promotion for Lifetime Membership. That ends today, so if it's caught your eye, time is running out. For a one-off payment of just £450/$570 you will get full access to the Flying Frisby for life.Click the button below and you will see the option - I stress this is a one-off paymentToday, with stock markets looking very wobbly indeed, I thought it would be a good time to check in on the Dolce Far Niente portfolio.Dolce Far Niente, as I'm sure you know, means “the sweetness of doing nothing”, and the idea was to create a strong, long-term portfolio * which will grow and thrive* with which you will not have to constantly tinker* about which you will not to have to constantly worry. You can just leave it alone and let it be.It emphasises strategic asset allocation - being in the right market - above individual stock picking.So, with so many new readers, and with it being six months since we last looked, let's check in on it today.1 Gold (15% allocation)Gold is the ultimate Dolce Far Niente asset. It does nothing but sit there and look sweet. The shine may be coming off everything else, but it will never come off gold. It's up 55% since inception in October 2023 and going strong.My firm belief is that everyone should own some gold. Especially now.My guide to investing in gold is here. If you are looking to buy gold, try the Pure Gold Company.2. Bitcoin (5% allocation)HODL is another way of saying Dolce Far Niente, and, even with the current shake out, bitcoin has been another winner. It has more than tripled since inception (a 233% gain).Some will argue bitcoin has no place in a “low risk” portfolio such as this. I'd argue that the greater risk is not owning bitcoin.For those in the UK who can't buy it directly or buy the ETFs, our vehicle to play bitcoin via a UK-broker, and circumvent/satisfy ill-conceived-FCA regulation, was to own Nasdaq-listed Strategy Inc (Nasdaq:MSTR).This is one volatile stock, and the chart now looks nasty, but its President Michael Saylor is a genius. He embraces volatility, seeing it as a feature not a flaw. And the company has been another winner, up 9x since the inception of the portfolio, even after the recent correction.By the way, Strategy is proving a leading indicator for bitcoin - it was already falling when bitcoin was re-testing its old high. That makes it a super-useful forecaster. Take note.3. Special Situations (10%)This is the fun/painful part of the portfolio. Lightbridge (NASDAQ:LTBR) was a big winner here, as was and the tax-loss trade (time to exit this one if you haven't already). Junior miners, Condor and tax-loss trade aside, continue to suck.By the way, check out this nuts Lightbridge chart. The bots must have got hold of it. Surely one be one to buy on the dips and exit on the spikes.4. Uranium (5% allocation, reduced to 2.5%)I reduced the uranium allocation to 2.5% in February 2024, because it all felt too frothy. That has proved a good decision, as the price has since come down. We are in proper bear market now.I don't like uranium miners. Most of them will not see any production for years, decades even and are, therefore, drains on capital. We own the metal itself.

Another video for this Sunday morning, based on the very popular New Year's How To Win piece. I hope you draw some inspiration from it. (I meant to put it out in Jan, but didn't).Please like, watch, share and all those other things.All the bestDominicPS Could I draw your attention to a couple of things…Lifetime Membership Many people do not know about this, so, for one week only, I am running promotion. For a one-off payment of just £450/$570 you will get full access to the Flying Frisby for life. Click the button below and you will see the option - I stress this is a one-off paymentPlease consider upgrading your subscription - and if one of last year's flyers - Lightbridge, Novavax or Microstrategy worked for you, then consider this a way of saying thank you!PPS As always, if buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times, I recommend The Pure Gold Company with whom I have an affiliation deal. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.PPPS This week's commentary about my recent experiences in the US and, in particular, Tesla, went down a storm. ICYMI here it is: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

If you missed last week's special report, I urge you to take a look. Some of these are already starting to move, and fast .And so to today's piece. Tesla .I am just back from a two-week trip to the States, and what a time I had.I felt so privileged to be there at what feels like the dawn of a new golden age for this most amazing of countries.The first week I spent in Palm Springs, California, visiting my mum, and the second in Naples, Florida. Quite the contrast. One was Meltdown Central, the other was in a state of jubilation. Everyone everywhere was talking about the USAID revelations.I did not know Naples. What a stunning place. Hot, sunny, green, humid, beautiful (the architecture is lovely, even the newbuilds—that's traditional measures for you), polite, safe, cultured, healthy, delicious food. Life seems to slow down as soon you arrive. What's happening elsewhere no longer seems to matter. Were I to go there and settle, I think I would lose all ambition.The problem with settling there, though, is price. It has the most expensive real estate in the US. One house was for sale for $295 million. Even Satoshi Nakamoto would wince at paying that.“I told my kids, when they were growing up,” said Mike, who I was having dinner with, “this is not the real world. Naples is not reality. It's something else. They needed to know that.”I turned to his son—Matty Ice—the man who had brought me to Naples to talk tax, bitcoin, and other such things on the Runway Pod, an entrepreneur and family man in his early 30s. “Well, I'm not leaving. Why would I?”It turns out lots of people come to Naples on a temporary basis, then decide to stay.It's not just Naples real estate that is expensive, by the way. The whole of the US has got super dear. I paid $18 for a pint of beer in Miami airport. I had dinner at a friend's—he paid $60 for three steaks for the barbeque. I thought steak was cheap in the US. In a Palm Springs supermarket, I paid $4.99 for three organic onions. They saw me coming.In general, I would say food is twice the price it is here in the UK. And that's with a strong dollar. The country has got very expensive. Inflation is a big, big issue.My eldest son works in recruitment—in the chemicals industry—and most of the time he is recruiting in the US. He says US workers get paid three times the money for doing the same job as a UK worker - in that industry at least,But, whether it's Naples, neighbouring Fort Myers, or Miami, Florida; or Los Angeles or Palm Springs, California, there is also a lot of money in America. You can see it everywhere. It is several standard deviations of wealth up from the UK. The wealth is visible in the houses—even the middle-class houses—in the cars, in the clothes, in the prices. We in the UK have been left behind. It was not always like this.That wealth gap is only going to get bigger, as the UK continues to pursue high taxes, big regulation, mass migration, and zero growth, while the US goes in the other direction. The place is full of opportunity.Go to the US. Move there if you can, especially if you are young. The US was already something special, but something really special is happening there: the Washington purges are cleaning the place up. You've read the news, you've been on X, you've seen what's going on. You really don't need me to tell you.But watch what you eat. I put on 5 pounds (2 kilos) in just two weeks. Mind you, I couldn't stop eating. The food is yum. (People in the gym kept asking me how I got to be so lean - “by not living in America, and not eating American food” I explained).I don't believe this level of political reform would have happened to anything like the same extent without the involvement of Elon Musk. He really is doing God's work rooting out all that corruption. What emerges will be so much cleaner, more efficient, more honest, and more united.But of all the things I actually witnessed in person, do you know what most blew my mind?I did not expect this.It wasn't $295 million dollar houses. It wasn't all the private aircraft in Naples airport next to where we were recording.It was driving in a Tesla on autopilot. I'd never done it before. I know I am late to this, but OMG.Matty typed our destination into his computer, put the car into self-driving mode. Off it went.The Tesla was a noticeably better driver than I am. It positioned itself on the road well, staying in the middle of the lane at all times. It cornered beautifully. It maintained the exact right distance to the car ahead. It knew the speed limits of all the roads we drove on. It knew when the lights were changing and set off straight away. It has a 360-degree awareness—a human can only look in one direction—and knew exactly what other cars nearby were doing. It didn't get impatient and start doing silly things like jumping lights.With machine learning, each Tesla is feeding info back to HQ, so that every car is learning from the others' experiences. Teslas know the roads - every inch of them - better than you, even the local roads. They are learning how to deal with every conceivable traffic incident. This data-driven driving constantly updates.I am a backseat driver. I often push my foot down on the imaginary brake. As I was getting over my control issues, I did this at a red light in the distance. Turns out it was miles away. The Tesla braked at exactly the right time.It got us to our destination and then reversed and parked with precision into a tight spot. I'm a good parker. The Tesla was better. Of course it was. It has 360-degree vision, and my neck is getting stiff.The driving conditions were good. But how much better would it be in rain, fog or ice, I wondered.Tesla, Matty pointed out, is as much a software company—a platform like Airbnb, Facebook or TripAdvisor—as it is a car company.The next day, I had an Uber drive me from Naples to Miami airport.The Uber driver was good, but sometimes he was doing things on his phone—changing the podcast he was listening to, updating the map. “Look at the road,” I found myself thinking. Sometimes overt the 2-hour journey he strayed from the centre of the lane. One time he braked sharply. No such imperfection in the Tesla.Transport as we know it is about to changeThe main barriers to Tesla's self-driving progress are regulatory, but a certain Elon Musk is now in a position of influence. One of the reasons he is doing what he is doing is to clear out the regulators and bureaucrats who were so biased against him and blocked his progress—whom he came to despise.I think the regulatory barriers to self-driving vehicles start to come down quickly. Self-driving vehicles will soon be a feature on US roads. Then what happens?“I will have my car drop me at the office,” said Matty, “instruct it to pick me up at five, and then in the meantime I'll put it to work”. In other words, his car will not be idly parked all day. It will spend the day ferrying other people about. It will earn him money.Other Tesla owners will do the same. Suddenly owning a Tesla will become potentially profitable. A car will not be quite such a depreciating asset. No doubt some will buy fleets of them. Like any platform, Tesla itself is going to take a cut of the profit.Just to get the self-driving capability added to the software of the vehicle, you must pay another ten grand. Then comes the rent.Leaving your car parked 95% of the time, as most of us do—my car in London can stay parked for weeks at a time—is so inefficient. Not for much longer. At least, in the US. It'll be years before we allow it here in the UK or Europe. Of course, it will.What happens to American roads in the meantime? Fewer people are going to own cars, especially in cities. They won't need to. They can just call a Tesla. What happens to the rest of the auto industry? Fewer car sales. The cost of taxis though comes down. Drivers lose their jobs to robots. I guess something similar happens to the trucking industry too.The roads themselves are used more efficiently, as robots drive demonstrably better, leading to better traffic flow and less congestion.Public transport will see fewer users. Why use such a smelly system when you can travel privately in a Tesla? Self-driving cars were a pipe dream. That is about to change. American roads are about to change.There are other self-driving operators - Waymo, Cruise, or Mobileye - which are already fully operational in limited areas (ie driverless). They have partnered with the likes of Jaguar, Mercedes, Volvo and Hyundai, but they do not have Tesla's end-to-end autonomy. Nor do they have Tesla's immense network effect.The network effect is an incredibly powerful force in the evolution of a business. It's often more important that the tech itself (why, for example, VHS beat Betamax or CDs obliterated minidisk). It's why I advocate bitcoin ahead of other sh*tcoins. Tesla's dominance of roads could be on a par with Apple's dominance of the smartphone market. It is ahead of the pack.So should we all be buying stock in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA)?Let's take a financial overview.Phew! It's an expensive company. A lot of what I've already described must already be priced in.With a market cap now over $1 trillion, it is among the world's most valuable companies.Annual revenue in 2024 was $98 billion, with minimal growth on the previous year. The pro-electric narrative of a few years ago has dissipated over the last couple of years.EBITDA for the twelve months ending in December 2024 was $15 billion. The EV-to-EBITDA, which compares the company's enterprise value to its EBITDA, stands at around 72, indicating a “premium valuation” relative to its operational earnings.Its trailing P/E ratio is high, high, high at 177, as is its forward P/E of 124. A lot of earnings growth is expected. This could reflect anticipation of Tesla's expansion into new markets, battery technology, and/or the self-driving revolution I have described, but it also points to a richly priced stock, for which investors are paying a substantial premium. The Price/Earnings to Growth (PEG) ratio, at 8.5, also implies Tesla is overvalued.Any setback—some kind of bad accident, a large insurance claim, a rival technology becoming suddenly competitive—and this stock can take a big hit.Turning to the company's financial health and profitability, Tesla's Return on Equity (ROE) is 10.4%—I've seen worse—and its Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is 6%, which denotes an efficient use of capital, something Musk is known for.Tesla maintains a relatively low Debt/Equity ratio of 0.18, suggesting a conservative approach to leverage, which should reduce volatility. The current ratio of 2.02 indicates good short-term liquidity, allowing Tesla to meet its short-term liabilities comfortably.But it is a volatile stock—so perhaps one to buy on weakness. The 52-week high is $488, the low $139. You can more than double your money if you buy this well. Currently at $350 we are in the middle of the range—well up from the lows, but also well off the highs—and in a downtrend.Analysts, meanwhile, are divided. Predictions range from $115.00 to $550.00. reflecting a wide range of expectations.Tesla is unique. It has the potential to transform transport as we currently know it. It could have enormous first-mover advantage and a near monopoly on roads, as more and more people “put their car to work,” and what is currently an expense becomes a secondary source of income. It is the market leader, it is the technological leader, it could enjoy something of a monopoly on roads as it drives ahead of its competitors.To maintain and grow this valuation, it needs to stay ahead of rivals, it needs to overcome the regulatory barriers it faces, and it needs to manage the many inherent risks of the automotive and tech industries.But one thing Elon Musk has is vision. He will have seen all of this and be working towards it.I can quite easily envisage a scenario where Tesla's dominance of roads is near monopolistic—like Apple's dominance of phones or something.In such a scenario, its valuation will be a lot higher.It'll make money on the car, on the software, then on the rental.It will also be the most common car on the roads. Transport is about to change.Disclaimer:I am not regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) or any other regulatory body as a financial advisor. Therefore, any information provided in this newsletter does not constitute regulated financial advice. It is solely an expression of opinion. Stocks are inherently risky. Please conduct your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor if you have any doubts. Remember, markets can both rise and fall. I am not aware of your individual financial circumstances, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Join me for my next live video in the app This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comHundreds of tonnes of gold - so much so that there is now something of a shortage in London - have made their way across the Atlantic to the US to get ahead of Trump tariffs. Something like 400 tonnes have gone to the Comex alone, never mind what's gone to the private vaults of HSBC, JP Morgan et al.With a shortage of physical gold for delivery in London, waiting times now as long as eight weeks, and the Bank of England refusing to comment, there are all sorts of rumours flying about. It's not a great situation for London, which is normally the epicentre of the physical gold markets.I don't think we're going to get a proper run on gold, but it's possible nonetheless, and if we do, talk about unintended consequences...A bit of zip in the normally quite sleepy physical markets.Today, however, I wanted to give my outlook on gold for 2025. Before I do this, I have two things to plug:One is my mate Charlie Morris' newsletter, Atlas Pulse. This monthly gold report is, in my view, the best out there bar none, and it's free. More here.And, two, if you are thinking of buying gold - and I think everyone should own some - my preferred bullion dealer is the Pure Gold Company. You should get your gold or silver from them.Gold's Silent SurgeThe gold price has been rising relentlessly since November 2022.Here we are in early 2025, within a few dollars of all-time highs at $2,800.Gold is at or close to all-time highs against the Japanese yen, the euro, the Swiss franc, the Great British peso, the Aussie and Canadian dollars, and pretty much any other fiat currency you care to mention.And yet I don't recall seeing much mention of this anywhere. This is very much a stealth bull market, the best kind of bull market. It means there is plenty more hype left in the can.Private investors are almost completely ignoring gold. In Germany, normally one of the biggest buyers of physical, I gather we are seeing net selling in the retail markets. One reason is there's profit to be had, especially for those who bought during Covid - of which there are many . Two, because the economy is in the toilet and people need the money. Higher rates in recent years have dampened both investment and speculative demand for gold.A lot of the money that fuels the junior end of the mining markets also comes from retail buying, and if they're not buying bullion, they are certainly not buying miners: hence the atrophy there.So who is buying then, if the price keeps on going up? The answer, as regular readers of the Flying Frisby will be able to tell you straight away, is central banks, especially in Asia. This trend accelerating after the US began freezing Russian assets following its invasion of Ukraine.China imported 124 tonnes just in November, writes Jan Nieuwenhuijs of the Gold Observer. It has bought 1,050 tonnes since the Russian Freeze, and it is buying 400 oz bars from London, which are almost certainly making their way to the People's Bank of China - 400 oz bars do not trade on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. It is also buying roughly three times as much as it declares.The explanation is obvious. Central banks need reserve assets which other governments can't freeze, so-called bearer assets. Gold, which is value in and of itself, is the answer. There is no equal.Here we see gold as a percentage of central bank reserves is now at 20%.I doubt we go back to the heady pre-WWII days when gold made up 80-90% of reserves - money was not fiat then - but you can see the trend is very much up. It has been for 10 years now. The percentage has doubled in that time. I see no reason why it can't double again in the next ten years. 40 % of reserves held in gold seems like a reasonable number, a conservative number.Nations are, says Nieuwenhuijs, "obviously preparing for a multipolar world in which the dollar's role as a reserve asset will be gently reduced."You can look at all this and describe the process as natural and sensible asset allocation: diversification away from other government currencies, especially the US dollar. Or you can proclaim that other nations are preparing to abandon the dollar and for a new gold standard. It's probably about 80% former and 20% latter. That may well change - but we are not there yet.While nations might not be so much abandoning the dollar as they are simply increasing their gold holdings, they, are, however, reducing their holdings of US Treasuries. De-dollarisation and diversification.At the moment, the whole process is covert and benign, but it may become a lot more significant a few years from now.I urge you too to be diversified and own plenty of gold. It may well be that you are going to need it, and you're better off booking your seat on the lifeboat now while they are still available. This is especially the case if you are in the UK: there has never been a Labour government that didn't devalue, and this particular lot are flip-flopping and clueless. My guide to buying gold is here, in case of use:I don't see any reason for this central bank buying to abate, by the way. My prognosis is that it continues.What about the new President?I want to, briefly, consider gold and President Donald Trump.Here is what gold did last time he was in power.

Here's one for you.Thousands of years ago aliens landed on earth. They came in great space ships, which the ancients took to be chariots of the gods, and they came for gold. They were the Anunnaki from the planet Nibiru, according to ancient astronaut theory, which derives from author Zecharia Sitchin's interpretations of Sumerian texts. Tall and imposing, with features both human and otherworldly, they were seen as deities. They needed gold dust to suspend in their planet's atmosphere to protect it from the solar radiation that was slowly destroying it.But the primitive hominids they found here, such as homo erectus, were useless, so they combined their alien DNA with them to create a worker race capable of mining the gold they had come for: Homo sapiens. They established mining colonies in Africa and in the Fertile Crescent, which became the cradle of civilisation. The Anunnaki taught humans many things – agriculture, astronomy, mathematics, writing and record keeping - to ensure their mining operations ran smoothly. Eventually, they departed, taking vast quantities of gold with them, but they left behind some of what they had created. Evidence of their existence can be found in myths, ancient mines, ancient texts and, of course, in the Megalithic structures they created such as the Pyramids and Stonehenge.There is actually some evidence that the capstones on top of the pyramids – the pyramidia – were gilded with a layer of gold or electrum (gold-silver alloy), which, of course, would add to the many celestial and religious connotations of these structures. It's also thought we could not build them today.This is one of the reasons we associate gold with the gods.That's my story and I'm sticking to it.Tell your friends about this ancient alien race.If you haven't already, take a look at my buddy Charlie Morris's monthly gold report, Atlas Pulse. It is, in my view, the best gold newsletter out there, and, best of all, it's free. Sign up here.And, of course, if you are buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times, as always I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.You really should subscribe.I mucked up the title of my mid-week piece, so in case you missed it here it is: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

I regard the crimes committed by the Pakistani Rape Gangs as some of the most barbaric, if not the most barbaric, given the scale of them, ever to have been perpetrated on British soil.Yet, while I knew they were bad, I don't think I realized quite how bad they are.I've just finished playing a judge - Judge Peter Rook - in a new "verbatim film," which recreates the sentencing word for word of one of the most notorious grooming cases in Oxford. What went on is horrifying.It's called "The Grooming Gangs Cover-Up." It is produced by Phelim McAleer and Ann McElhinney, founders of the Unreported Story Society, which specializes in verbatim dramas, plays, and podcasts, and it comes out this Tuesday, January 21. Here's the trailer:At times, I could not believe the words that were coming out of my mouth.I remember telling my elder son and daughter about these rape gangs back in the mid-2010s. Neither believed such a thing was possible. My son started googling. Even on the internet, there was little evidence of what was going on. Rapists are predominantly white, he concluded, and that was that in their minds.The internet had smothered the story.In 2020, when everybody was squabbling over Brexit, there was this campaign to get the Remainer anthem - Beethoven's "Ode To Joy" conducted by André Rieu - to the top of the charts in time for the day we left. Fighting a rearguard action, Leavers then tried to get my song about Brexit, "17 Million F*ck Offs," to Number One. The result is that quite a few singles got sold. The media loved the story, and it was all over the papers. But there is one thing they left out: that I donated the proceeds to the Maggie Oliver Foundation, a charity set up to help the victims of rape gangs. Even that got covered up. (I don't know what Rieu did with his royalties).Midjourney, an AI art app which I use to illustrate these articles, refuses to design me a picture to illustrate the title of today's piece. Cover up, like the crimes themselves, is still happening.A couple of years ago, my daughter-in-law was drugged by a Pakistani Bolt driver who had offered her a drink of water. This was in London - not Rotherham or Telford. Fortunately, the drug only kicked in after she had arrived at her destination and her friends looked after her. But what would have happened if that man had "helped out" by offering to take her home? How many other young girls have not been so lucky?I put a picture of the guy online along with a warning. There were a lot of comments underneath. Many of them were deemed racist. Such is the extent of the brainwashing in the name of multiculturalism, a comment is now deemed of greater concern than actual deeds. What is racism, anyway?I define it as the wilful persecution of someone on the grounds of their race. These white girls were the victims of racism. And sexism. And paedophilia. And rape. And GBH. And, in some cases, murder.They were targeted because of their race. They were called "white w****s," "white c*nts," and "white slags," and no amount of contempt was enough for them. Yet, of course, they were white, and apparently, whites cannot be the victims of racism. Whites are privileged, you know that.When is this two-tiered insanity going to stop? Is it not clear how much damage these false, progressive narratives, which we have let thrive, are doing?We need a clear discussion followed by a definition - not the definition of a race grifter - of what racism is. And the rules need to be the same for everyone. No more multi-tiered nonsense.These were racist crimes. And they went on for so long because those who should have put a stop to them were scared of being labelled racist. Rather than risk that slur, they threw children under the bus. Woke is, truly, cancerous. If you live in a remote rural village, and somebody of unusual appearance comes along, and you stare at them, that does not make you racist. Staring at what is unusual to you is normal. If you use a word that is now considered out-of-date, perhaps as a result of not mixing in sophisticated urban circles, with zero harmful intent that does not make you racist. However, if you target a little girl because she is white, then groom her, inject her with drugs, rape her, and then sell her body to people you know so they can rape her - well, that is racist. And a whole lot more besides.Let the truth be toldAt lunch the other day, I started to read out to my family some of the judge's sentencing remarks, which detail what happened. We got about two sentences in before it all got to be too much, and they didn't want to hear it. No surprise. What happened is beyond awful.Read the below if you can stomach it.How can one human being do something like this to another?The beauty of these verbatim dramas is that the creators cannot be accused of sensationalism or exaggeration. It is the truth. That is what needs to come out. We have to learn about what has happened if only to motivate ourselves and our leaders into doing something about this.It has been going on since the 1990s. It is still going on today. No more brushing it under the carpet in the name of multi-culturalism.The Jay Report claims that 1,400 children (that's just the under-age ones) were sexually exploited in Rotherham over 16 years. If you extrapolate that number over 50 other towns and cities, you arrive at roughly 70,000 victims. That is a conservative estimate. You can do similar extrapolations and come to a figure of a million. The likelihood is 250,000-500,000, given that we are talking about a period longer than 16 years and it has been happening in more than 50 locations. Kids!For sure, the cover-ups - the unwillingness to police, prosecute, publicize, or punish - meant the rape gangs went much further than they otherwise would. They thought they could get away with it.We need truth, even if it is unpalatable, if we are to stop things like this ever happening again.Most of these girls have never had anything like justice. How is a few years in prison anything like justice anyway?If you are buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times, I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here. The system does not work - smash itPrison is no longer sufficient punishment. It does not work as a deterrent. With almost 20% of inmates now Muslim and, according to a solicitor friend, with prisons now largely controlled on the inside by Muslim gangs, prison has become a place of indoctrination, radicalization, and Islamism. Thus, not only does imprisonment not work, it is actually counter-productive: it is creating offenders. Who'd've thought something run by government doesn't work as intended? Then prisoners get let out too early, especially to make room for people uttering wrong think on social media.Prison is also expensive - annual imprisonment now costs more than £50,000-100,000 per year per inmate, plus the costs of processing it all (police, courts, legal aid, etc) also amount to more than £50,000. As if what the rapist has done is not already bad enough, now we have to pay for him too. The courts are overwhelmed. The justice system is exploited. We need something different and better. It's long overdue. Horror stories like this one can at least motivate the required reform.There are other factors motivating the cover-up in my view. Policing your own community, where everybody knows who's who, everybody speaks the same language, and comes from the same culture is one thing. But policing another culture, where the language is different, the values are different - even the names are difficult - is much harder.It gets even harder when the majority of that culture feel a greater loyalty to their own people and culture than they do to what is right in the eyes of the host culture, or indeed the people of the host culture. If the alien culture does not integrate, it gets even harder. It was probably easier for the police to let stuff go, and focus on other things.Put your email in the box below and get my free guide to investing in gold.Here's a thoughtIn the largely secular UK, where the state now takes on responsibilities which were once borne by the church - education, care and so on - the state has also replaced religion. From Nigel Lawson to Polly Toynbee, it is now recognized that the NHS has become a religion.But the Pakistani communities that have taken over so many towns in the north and elsewhere do not feel the same sense of loyalty, protection, or worship to Britain's welfare state. It is something to take from rather than contribute to. They worship the Prophet Mohammed, not the NHS. I will wager a large bet that - especially in these communities where cash plays such a big role - they are paying much lower levels of tax than their earnings dictate. They will pay their Zakat long before they pay their VAT, Income or other taxes. Is HMRC policing these economies to the same extent? You know it isn't.Will a thorough investigation be commissioned? Of course it won't. That would be racist.More tiers, more iniquity, more injustice.But that's is another story, and it'll be years before that one comes out. Please tell your friends about this article.Follow the release of the film here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comHeads up: there is now a video version of last week's predictions piece, if you fancy:Onwards …I am bullish on America.For all its failings, I think it's still, as comedian Lewis Schaffer is forever telling me, “the greatest country in the world.”The new administration has huge hurdles ahead of it - not least sorting out the excess spending on its military-industrial complex and atrocious healthcare system, though perhaps "system" is not the word I should be using. The administration also faces considerable resistance from its ideological opponents who prevail in the deep state.But if Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy, RFK, et al. get just a third of the stuff they have planned over the line, then the economy is going to boom like hell. There is a lot of money in that country, a lot of entrepreneurial spirit, and a lot of opportunity. Just the size of the US alone means it is, in itself, an enormous market.However, while the economy and the stock market are bedfellows, they do not always march forward hand in hand. How often this century have we seen stock markets boom while life for the ordinary working person becomes ever harder? Inflation, for example, eats away at his effective earnings, and he struggles to keep up, while the same inflationary dynamic actually pushes up stock markets.The reverse can also apply. There might be an economic boom "on the street," but stock markets, on the other hand, might be flat. Perhaps they already advanced a year ahead of the boom in anticipation. Perhaps life made better for the American worker by, say, tariffs does not suit global companies like Apple, and so stock prices retreat.So, while I am bullish on America, am I bullish on US stocks?I must confess to being rather more ambivalent, as there are a number of headwinds and warning signs.Let's look at some of them.First, there is the small (by that I mean large) matter of the US dollar.

Enjoy!Why not subscribe to this fantastic substack?Here's the original article if you prefer to read or listen” If you are buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times, I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.And If you haven't already, take a look at my buddy Charlie Morris's monthly gold report, Atlas Pulse. It is, in my view, the best gold newsletter out there, and, best of all, it's free. Sign up here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

ICYMI (there were problems with the site mid-week), check out my forecasts for 2025, always one of my more popular pieces of the year.He has invented an entirely new digital system of money with the potential to change the world as we know it. He has watched it grow to a market cap of over two trillion dollars, with as many as 100 million users worldwide, including actual nations, and the US President promising a strategic bitcoin reserve in his 2024 election campaign. He has half the internet nosing about and trying to figure out who he is. His own coins are worth about $100 billion, making him one of the richest people on earth.Yet he has managed to stay completely unknown and anonymous. It is almost unbelievable.Never mind Big Foot, the Mary Rose or the Loch Ness Monster, the mystery of ‘Who is Satoshi Nakamoto?' is perhaps the greatest mystery the world has ever known - or not known.There have been thousands of investigative attempts, articles, blog posts and discussion groups involving probably millions of man hours dedicated to pinning down this man, with names bandied about from Elon Musk to little known computer scientists. They have all failed. Satoshi's identity is as bulletproof as his code.For my 2014 book, Bitcoin: the Future of Money?, from which today's piece is taken, I ventured on the same doomed journey. I spent many months poring over the 80,000 words Satoshi wrote in the three years he was active online, looking for clues. What unusual words did he use? Does he make any spelling mistakes? Does he have any quirky grammatical habits? I analysed it in such detail I can tell you where he places brackets, how he uses hyphens, even how many spaces he uses after a full stop and how that changed – all in the hope of finding idiosyncrasies that appear in the writing of other Cypherpunks - clues which might lead me to him.Profiling a genius – some broad brushstrokes‘I've had the good fortune to know many brilliant people over the course of my life, so I recognize the signs.' Hal FinneySatoshi reached such high levels of expertise in so many different fields that many believe he can't possibly be one person. He is a polymath. It is not just the breadth and depth of his knowledge, but, more importantly, its specificity that makes him unique.In order to first conceive a new system of electronic cash, one would have to have thought extensively about the nature of money and its history. Money is a subject that has found more interest in the last few years with the emergence of bitcoin, the 2000s bull market in gold, the financial crisis and the growth of libertarianism, but, in 2007–8, when bitcoin was conceived and first introduced, books and academic papers on the subject were few and far between. The subject did not have broad appeal.How many of those who cared actually had the ability to design a system like this? It is one thing declaring what needs to be done; it is another putting it into practice.Satoshi must have had expertise in computer coding, mathematics, databases, accounting, peer-to-peer systems, digital ownership, law, smart contracts, cryptography and monetary history.He had to have had experience in academia. The act of submitting a white paper, its presentation, the impeccable referencing – it all denotes academia, even government.It's also easy to infer from the way bitcoin was launched that Satoshi had experience in open-source tech start-ups.The resilience of the code suggests he had computer hacking experience. Moreover, his ability to keep his identity hidden, despite the fact that half the internet is trying to figure out who he is, suggests significant practical experience in staying anonymous. It also means he has the trust of those who know him, if anyone did, to keep his secret.Then there's the matter of his prose. It is consistent and of such a high standard it seems he must have had experience as a writer – perhaps he was a blogger, an academic or an author. He was also quite humble and dismissive of his ability in this regard. ‘I'm better with code than with words', he said.It's clear from his posts that he had the awareness to see shortcomings in his system, and the patience not to try to do too much too quickly. He had the foresight to perceive problems before they arose and the meticulousness to prepare for them. He appears to have remained calm and measured in the face of difficulty, but also of his own success. He treated those two imposters just the same. Signs of arrogance are hard to find.Then there's the way that bitcoin was introduced to the world. PR, like economics, is not an exact science. Sometimes something gains traction, sometimes it doesn't – and there's no explaining why. Bitcoin has been a PR masterstroke. The coverage it has received has been enormous. It gets more publicity than gold, which is the oldest form of money there is. Satoshi cannot take all of the credit for this, but he has to take some of it. He understood when to make his ideas known, at what point to release his creation into the open-source world and he had the self-efacement to let go of it for others to develop. He promoted his idea with huge under-statement – but the scheduled creation of bitcoins meant there would be no shortage of bitcoin-holders to do the promoting for him.So we can add an understanding of both PR and psychology to his list of qualities. His knowledge of how people on the internet, in the open source world and in large institutions work, allowed him to progress his creation.Finally, he has a certain honesty. Despite Bitcoin's similarities to a pyramid or Ponzi scheme, he never pumped-and- dumped his creation. Tempting though it must have been, he never sold the bitcoins he mined. That also suggests he already had money.There are not many people like this.From mathematics to computer programming to economics and monetary history to politics to PR and psychology to cryptography to business acumen and vision to plain old written English – in all of these fields he excelled. To cap it all, he's probably good-looking too.It's early in history to be drawing this sort of comparison, I know, but there are many parallels between Satoshi and Isaac Newton. Newton was a brilliant scientist and mathematician, of course, and an alchemist. But he was also Master of the Royal Mint. He redesigned England's monetary system, putting us onto the gold standard on which Britain's colossal progress during the next 200 years was built.If you haven't already, take a look at my buddy Charlie Morris's monthly gold report, Atlas Pulse. It is, in my view, the best gold newsletter out there, and, best of all, it's free. Sign up here.First instinctMany believe that Satoshi was Hal Finney, the veteran programmer, who invented reusable proof of works, one of the models on which bitcoin was based. This was my first instinct. Often such “first instincts”, for reasons I cannot begin to explain, prove correct. When Satoshi first announced bitcoin on the cryptography mailing list, nobody replied. The message was ignored for two days. In the short-attention-span land of the web, two days is a long time to wait for some feedback on something you've spent 18 months working on. Two days is a long time to wait when you might have nailed something Cypherpunks had been dreaming about for 20 years.The first reply came from Finney. Was he replying to himself in order to generate some interest and discussion – to bump his thread? Replying to your own posts, known as ‘sock-puppeting', is not uncommon. Let us pursue this line of thinking a little further.Finney was born in 1956 – in that same two-year golden window as so many computer-scientist geniuses that would change the world (from Bill Gates to Tim Berners-Lee to Steve Jobs) were born – and spent his life working on cryptographic systems. He was number two to Phil Zimmerman, the pioneer in the field, for many years at the Pretty Good Privacy (PGP) Corporation, where they developed the most widely used email encryption software in the world.Such were his beliefs in privacy, freedom, and Cypherpunk, Finney was known to spend many nights writing and developing code for free, just because he believed in the work.In 1993, he published the paper, ‘Detecting Double-Spending'. Solving the double-spending problem (ensuring the same money cannot be used twice) was, of course, the key problem with digital cash. It was what Satoshi was so excited about when he proposed Bitcoin. In 2004, Finney developed the ‘reusable proof-of-work' (RPOW) system, which coders regarded as a brilliant step forward – but his system never saw any economic use until b itcoin.Finney is one of the few people to have the background and expertise to have developed bitcoin – but he is also an obvious person to take an immediate interest.In his very first reply to Satoshi's announcement, he wrote:“As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world. Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.”The comment shows extraordinary insight. Many now see this “amusing thought experiment” as inevitable. But could it also be somebody trying to get others excited? Very possibly.(By the way, ‘thought experiment' is an expression Satoshi himself uses – though it is not uncommon in coding circles).Of the many names touted as Satoshi, Finney's writing style is one of the few that match. The major difference is Satoshi used British spelling and Finney does not. There is a similar calm, understated tone, similar use of language, similar punctuation habits: two spaces after a full stop. In stylometrics tests carried out by John Noecker Jr., chief scientific officer at text analysis experts Juola & Associates, Finney consistently scored high. (However, veteran cypherpunk blogger, Nick Szabo, scored higher). Then I noticed both Finney and Satoshi had ‘@gmx.com' email addresses. (GMX is a free email provider based in Germany. Many Germans use GMX, while Americans and British tend to gravitate towards Gmail, Hotmail, or Yahoo. Today they would probably gravitate towards P rotonmail). Was this just coincidence – or was it a clue?Why did Satoshi disappear?In December 2010, Satoshi made his final post and then disappeared from the internet.Why?Perhaps to protect his anonymity in the face of rising interest from the media and, more significantly, the authorities: to protect his own safety as the WikiLeaks panic began to erupt. (After Wikileaks was shut out of the financial system, many began sending it bitcoin. The effect, ironically, was thus to make it an extraordinarily wealthy organisation).But there is also the possibility that he disappeared because he was ill.In 2009, Finney was diagnosed with Lou Gehrig's disease – amyotrophic lateral sclerosis – the same disease from which Stephen Hawking suffered. It is, for the most part, fatal and claims its victims within two to five years. ‘My symptoms were mild at first,' he says, ‘and I continued to work, but fatigue and voice problems forced me to retire in early 2011. Since then the disease has continued its inexorable progression.' Finney, eventually died in August 2014.In March 2013 he said, ‘Today, I am essentially paralyzed. I am fed through a tube, and my breathing is assisted through another tube. I operate the computer using a commercial eye-tracker system. It also has a speech synthesizer, so this is my voice now. I spend all day in my power wheelchair. I worked up an interface using an Arduino so that I can adjust my wheelchair's position using my eyes. It has been an adjustment, but my life is not too bad. I can still read, listen to music, and watch TV and movies. I recently discovered that I can even write code. It's very slow, probably 50 times slower than I was before. But I still love programming and it gives me goals.'Could a terrible illness be the reason Satoshi withdrew?Finney was one of the first to mine bitcoins. What did he do with them?I mined several blocks over the next days. But I turned it off because it made my computer run hot, and the fan noise bothered me. In retrospect, I wish I had kept it up longer, but on the other hand, I was extraordinarily lucky to be there at the beginning. It's one of those glass half full, half empty things.The next I heard of Bitcoin was late 2010, when I was surprised to find that it was not only still going, bitcoins actually had monetary value. I dusted off my old wallet, and was relieved to discover that my bitcoins were still there. As the price climbed up to real money, I transferred the coins into an offline wallet, where hopefully they'll be worth something to my heirs. Those discussions about inheriting your bitcoins are of more than academic interest. My bitcoins are stored in our safe deposit box, and my son and daughter are tech-savvy. I think they're safe enough. I'm comfortable with my legacy.Finney sold many of his bitcoins in order to pay for medical care, many at around $100. Satoshi never moved his.If you are buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times, I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.We are all SatoshiFinney was a key player in the development of Bitcoin, no doubt. He was one of the first to ask real questions. He managed to understand from the start the inner workings of the Bitcoin protocol and its potential. He explored the weaknesses in the Bitcoin code – one of them is even named 'the Finney Attack'. He had many exchanges with Satoshi on the Bitcoin forums as they progressed the code and developed new versions. He asked question after question. But these very exchanges show there were two people talking. On January 10th, 2009, for example, Finney publicly complained to Satoshi that Bitcoin had crashed when he tried to receive a transaction. If it was his own code, and he was transacting with himself, he would surely have quietly fixed it himself.Moreover, coders all agree that Finney's coding style – and the style of the comments written in the code – is different from Satoshi's. Also, Finney preferred to code in the language C, whereas Bitcoin is coded in C++. This is something Finney himself confirms: 'I've done some changes to the Bitcoin code, and my style is completely different from Satoshi's. I program in C, which is compatible with C++, but I don't understand the tricks that Satoshi used.'Shortly before the publication of this book, the Forbes journalist Andy Greenberg published an interview with Hal Finney. Finney was now too ill to even speak – he could only raise his eyebrows to say yes. His son showed Greenberg fifteen email exchanges between Satoshi and Finney from January 2009. They mainly focused on bugs Finney had found in the code, to which Satoshi replied with fixes - and notes of thanks. Greenberg was also shown Finney's bitcoin wallet – with the transfers between Satoshi and Finney made back in 2009. As Greenberg notes, the wallet evidence and the Gmail timestamps in the emails would have been hard to forge. To cap it all, there is the fact that in 2009, at precisely the same moment Satoshi sent time-stamped e-mails, Finney, a keen runner, was photographed in the middle of a ten-mile race. Nobody, not even Satoshi Nakamoto, can be in two places at once.Bitcoin could not have happened without the work of Finney.If Satoshi Nakamoto was several people, Finney might have been one of them. But if Satoshi is an individual, Hal Finney was not him. This is an extract from my 2014 book, Bitcoin: the Future of Money? I hear the audiobook's excellent. ;)If you missed them (there were problems with the site midweek), check out my forecasts for 2025. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comBitcoin to $200,000k anyone? Sterling to crash? The US dollar to 20 year highs? As for silver …OK, folks. It's predictions time.As ever, the eternal conflict applies: the more outlandish the prediction, the more entertaining it is to read about - but the less likely it is to actually happen.On these pages, we attempt to strike a balance.Here are 15 things to look out for in 2025.1. The long overdue correction in the UK housing market finally begins.“Record Boxing Day bounce,” says Rightmove. Read beyond the headline and you get this: “Our data shows a 26% increase in the number of new properties listed for sale compared to Boxing Day 2023, which previously held the record.” They're trying to spin more sellers.More sellers means more supply.Meanwhile… houses are overpriced. The economy is not booming, so people have less money. Labour's higher taxes also mean buyers have less capital to spend. Higher mortgage rates mean there is less money to borrow, and, thus, less newly created money to come into the market and prop up prices. The rich are not coming to Britain - they are leaving, if they haven't already left.More supply of houses, but less money to buy them with.Meanwhile, stamp duty is a massive deterrent to buyers. Never mind people choosing not to move because of it, anyone buying a second or third home - they're as good as gone: who is going to pay 5% stamp duty for a second or third home? Not many people, I wouldn't have thought. More supply, less money, fewer buyers.Then there is the general perception of the economy. Psychologically, people are not feeling rich, nor are they bullish about the economy, meaning fewer people will take the plunge.What about investment from overseas?See my earlier comment about stamp duty. The cost of buying drives away investment.Moreover, the UK is not currently well looked upon. Rich Americans, for example (normally a good source of buyers), are not going to pile in given, one, the costs of buying and, two, how the UK is currently perceived over there.Then Labour are going to loosen planning laws and build a whole load more houses - well, they say they are - meaning even more supply.As if that wasn't enough, 2026 is the year the 18-year-cycle in property turns down. If houses don't turn down this year, I'll declare this market permanently immune.2. Keir Starmer survivesHis premiership is already looking dicey. It's one crisis after another, and it's difficult to see how he survives, especially with all the rape gang stuff.However, I think short-term PMs became a bit normalised in the Cameron-May-Johnson-Truss-Sunak era. Cameron went because of Brexit. May went for the same reason. Johnson got his landslide, handed to him by Farage, but then Covid came along, and Johnson, under a lot of pressure from the Left, got the shove from Tory MPs with whom he was never particularly popular anyway, worried about their seats. Not having been elected, Truss and Sunak were toast before they even started.None of that applies to Starmer. I admit he is looking shaky, particularly under this extraordinary pressure from Elon Musk. But I still think it's too early for Labour MPs, worrying about their seats, to give him the shove, and it's normal for a PM to last the full term - what happened under the Idiots Tories was not normal - so somehow Starmer survives the year.3. Gold hits $3,000.I'm not wildly bullish about gold at the moment, at least in US dollar terms, though I still think it is absolutely essential you own some. One, because at some point the China gold story is going to hit the mainstream, and suddenly there will be a scramble for gold. It probably won't be this year, but you never know, and gold is one particular lifeboat you want to have ready in advance. Second, if you are in the UK, I think sterling has problems - more on this in a moment - and your wealth is much better stored in shiny yellow metal than it is in British government digital stuff. (You would normally say British government paper, but it isn't paper anymore).On which note, if you are buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times, I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.And If you haven't already, take a look at my buddy Charlie Morris's monthly gold report, Atlas Pulse. It is, in my view, the best gold newsletter out there, and, best of all, it's free. Sign up here.$3,000 - landmark number though it is - is only 12.5% higher than where we are. We could easily see that by June.4. Microstrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) becomes a top 100 company by market cap. Currently, Deutsche Telecom (market cap US$145 bn) is 100th. Microstrategy is $85 billion at time of writing. It joins the elite. What a pick this has been for readers.5. Bitcoin … I was in Miami on New Year's Eve at Michael Saylor's - strictly on reconnaissance, of course - and one thing I learned there was that roughly half of corporate donations during the 2024 Presidential Election - $245m according to the Federal Election Commission - came from the crypto industry. Coinbase alone contributed $75 million. I'm a beneficiary, so I'm not complaining, but, really, you have to say, buying such favour is more than a little dodgy, even if that is how the world works and has almost always worked.But it means the likelihood of the Republicans delivering on their pledge for a strategic bitcoin reserve is likely. The US isn't going to buy a million coins straight away, but it may well buy 3-400,000 in year one. That sends bitcoin a lot higher.The prediction?

Last year I did one of those Landmark Forum personal development courses, which, by the way, I recommend.One of the takeaways was that one should publicly declare one's goals and aspirations. In doing so, several things happen.You make yourself more accountable. Knowing that others now know your goals pushes you to take stronger action to achieve them. You thus become more committed to them. The act of public statement also solidifies goals both in your mind and in the public perception, thereby moving them beyond an abstract idea to something more concrete. The act of articulating goals also clarifies what it is you are actually looking for and may even give you new insights.Support networks can also emerge: friends, family, peers, contacts are more likely to help in some way, if they know what you are trying to achieve. They might introduce you to helpful people. Those who have been down similar paths might be able to offer advice, assistance or collaboration.You will have something to keep referring back to, better enabling you to track progress, which will further reinforce the whole thing.Finally, making such a declaration makes you vulnerable, but that is actually empowering and liberating. It reduces internal conflict; while others might empathise and want to help you for your honesty.With all this in mind, I thought I would share my New Year resolutions with you. I hope you find some interest, amusement or even motivation in them.Some are quite personal, but for reasons stated above, I've decided to post them anyway. I hope it is not TMI.I always tend to overdo it with my resolutions - reach for the sky and then, even if you fall short, you still end up pretty high.So here they are:Health, Body & Mind* Stay fit and strong. Weights two or three times a week. Something aerobic two or three times a week. Plenty of stretching. Daily deadhangs, pelvic floors, breathing and neck exercises.* Keep drinking less.* Fast once a week.* Eat more protein.* Get good at lucid dreaming. (Lucid dreams are when you are aware you are in a dream, while you dream - dreaming is something I have got very interested in of late).* Read at least 15 books. I read a fair bit, but most of it is online. I hardly seem to read actual books any more - my phone always takes priority. Put this right.* Try and do some mindfulness meditation stuff once per week.Money* Invest well and grow my net worth - and the net worth of Flying Frisby readers - by at least 20%. On which note, if you are buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times, I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.Work & Career - Laughter, Acclaim, Opportunity* Continue producing consistent, interesting content for this Substack and grow it - both subscribers and revenue - by 25%.Apropos of which, why not subscribe?* Get better at PR and marketing, significantly grow my online presence - both as comic and commentator - and build a bigger following. ( I have a plan here).* Finish my musical about the Peasants' Revolt.* Write my Gilbert and Sullivan musical.* Write stage and screen adaptations of Kisses on a Postcard.* Make something significant happen with Kisses on a Postcard. I've put that in bold because it is perhaps the most important of all to me. We are talking about something that could be as big as Oliver! or The Sound of Music, if there are any producers reading this.* Try and get some comedy gigs in the US and grow a presence there* Get more gigs and better gigs in the UK, working towards a full-scale tour.* Keep writing the songs, making people laugh and produce another album by year end (I try and produce one a year).* Get my new book, The Secret History of Gold, as good as possible; and market it as well as possible, especially in China and the US. (It's due out in August).* Practice my uke and singing most days and get better at both.A lot of asks: I think I might be going against everything I said here on Wednesday.Enjoying this article? Then why not subscribe …Love and Family* Be the best father I can be to Samuel, Eliza, Lola and Ferdie. Set a good example. Love them unreservedly. Help them fulfil their potential. Spend more time doing memorable things with all of them, but especially Eliza and Ferdie, as they lost out a bit this year.* Find a nice place to live and settle down happily with Miss Downing in a lasting, fulfilling relationship.* Be a good son to my mother, and justify the unreserved love she has shown in me.Not a lot then.I realise I am asking a lot of both myself and the universe, but the whole point of these resolutions is to be bold. I'm not going to say I won't achieve all these goals, as that defeats the purpose (I never manage all of them but I'M NOT GOING TO SAY THAT). If nothing else, at least I'll have something interesting to write about this time next year.This isn't all about me. What about you? What are your goals? What are they? Let's discuss them in the comments.I wish you a 2025 packed with happiness, growth, fulfilment, success and—fingers crossed—lucid dreams.DominicTell someone about these resolutions.PS A few final bits and pieces:* If you haven't already, take a look at my buddy Charlie Morris's monthly gold report, Atlas Pulse. It is, in my view, the best gold newsletter out there, and, best of all, it's free. Sign up here.* If you missed my New Year piece, it's a good one. Here it is:* I recorded this interview with Rob Moore the other day, which you might enjoy: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe