Podcasts about noise why so many predictions fail

The Ochelli Effect 3-27-2025 NEWSThe Signal and The Noise is more than a bookGooGle AI Explains:The Signal:Represents the true, underlying information or pattern that we are trying to extract or predict. The Noise:Refers to random variations, errors, or irrelevant factors that can obscure or distort the signal, making it difficult to identify the true underlying pattern. Nate Silver's Book:In his book "The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don't," Silver explores how to better understand and make predictions by focusing on the signal and minimizing the influence of noise. Between the Signal and the NoiseToday;s TABLE SETTERSRepublicans Funded that Portrait Trump Hates https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKFWthykMKkTesla Stock Jumps. What's Behind the Rise.https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-price-today-self-driving-sales-6a9e7a8c3/25/25 Hell & High Water with Meria & Chuck Ochellihttps://meria.net/2025/03/hell-high-water-with-meria-chuck-ochelli-5/The Best Evidence Hoax and David Lifton's War Against the Critics of the Warren Commissionby Roger Feinmanhttp://22november1963.org.uk/roger-feinman-between-the-signal-and-the-noiseZelenskyy sensationally predicts Putin 'will die soon'https://www.foxnews.com/world/zelenskyy-sensationally-predicts-putin-will-die-soonBook Brief: The Signal and the NoiseWhy So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don'thttps://clearpurpose.media/book-brief-the-signal-and-the-noise-3cee7501407823andMe files for bankruptcy, Anne Wojcicki steps down as CEOhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/24/23andme-files-for-bankruptcy-anne-wojcicki-steps-down-as-ceo.htmlTexas lawmakers advance bill that makes it a crime for teachers to assign "Catcher in the Rye"https://popular.info/p/texas-lawmakers-advance-bill-that  Jon Stewart on Which Speech Is Free and Which Will Cost You in Trump's Americahttps://youtu.be/sNMdRzK9Nj0?si=7Mxb4e7tH7cH8c6l&t=942Crockett calls Texas Gov. Abbott ‘Governor Hot Wheels' https://thehill.com/homenews/5213119-republican-criticism-crockett-comments/‘F*** off': Danish official has message for Trump https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGCcIOF9qGERepublican truck driver Ed Durr ends bid to be New Jersey governor and backs Bill Spadeahttps://apnews.com/article/ed-durr-new-jersey-governor-c59d535d456bfa0467e4161943bf97fd---JFK DOCUMENT DUMP 2025What's going on with the Kennedy Center under Trump? And JFK DOC DUMP 2025https://apnews.com/article/kennedy-center-trump-what-to-https://know-4305e2c3d5611c4bfb1686d597727369https://newrepublic.com/post/192932/trump-plan-kennedy-center-leaked-audiohttps://www.eastbaytimes.com/2025/03/19/leaked-kennedy-center-audio-trumps-love-for-1980s-cats/JFK Assassination Records - 2025 Documents Release    March 18, 2025 - 7 PM EST Release: 32,000 pages (1,123 PDF files)    March 18, 2025 - 10:30 PM EST Release: 31,400 pages (1,059 PDF files)    March 20, 2025 - 9:30 PM EST Release: 13,700 pages (161 PDF files)    March 26, 2025 - 3:30 PM EST Release: 53 pages (16 PDF files)https://www.archives.gov/research/jfk/release-2025The Ochelli Effect 3-26-2025 Larry Hancock - Mike Swanson https://www.spreaker.com/episode/the-ochelli-effect-3-26-2025-larry-hancock-mike-swanson--651452183/26/25: EQUIS - JFK BLOWN AWAY, WHAT ELSE DO I HAVE TO SAY? W/ CHUCK OCHELLI https://groundzeroplus.com/3-26-25-equis-jfk-blown-away-what-else-do-i-have-to-say-w-chuck-ochelli/JFK Live Podcast: How Angleton Duped Congressional Investigators About th Surveillance of Oswaldhttps://jfkfacts.substack.com/p/jfk-live-podcast-how-angleton-duped?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=315632&post_id=160033915&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=68fjc&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email---SIGNAL,NOISE,RINSE,REPEAT  PATTERNS? From 'We All Make Mistakes' To 'Hegseth Should Be Stepping Down': Lawmakers React To War Plans LeakForbes Breaking Newshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSbLpKY65k0“F—king Idiot”: Trump Team Considers Fall Guy for War Plans Group Chathttps://newrepublic.com/post/193122/trump-team-considers-fall-guy-war-plans-group-chatSen. Mike Warner speaks on 'pattern' of national security mishapshttps://www.youtube.com/shorts/iTMofueJNRUMark Warner D-VA Intell Committee Vice Chair https://youtube.com/shorts/kZEMEerDJGc?si=jke1Nb_pcOH6tEh5Trump officials texted war plans to a group chat in a secure app that included a journalisthttps://apnews.com/article/war-plans-trump-hegseth-atlantic-230718a984911dd8663d59edbcb86f2a‘That's a lie': Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg reacts to Hegseth's claims about group chathttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJQwmGEcwmUPresident Trump on Atlantic's Editor-in-Chief Being Accidentally Included in a Signal Group Chathttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBfJLfiF7HcThe Trump Administration Accidentally Texted Me Its War Planshttps://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/03/trump-administration-accidentally-texted-me-its-war-plans/682151/ WATCH: Trump Reveals To Reporters His Take On JD Vance's Comments In The Leaked Signal Group ChatForbes Breaking Newshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqE1TkOcqEQThe Atlantic editor explains why they released entire Signal chat of Hegseth's detailed attack planshttps://www.youtube.com/shorts/Xahace-QxxgSignal chat records must be preserved, federal judge tells Trump administrationhttps://www.axios.com/2025/03/27/signal-chat-case-judge-messagesPresident Trump speaks on Signal group chat leak https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3XQgjupry_w&list=RDNS3XQgjupry_w&start_radio=1

On this episode of the Energy Security Cubed Podcast, Joe Calnan and Kelly Ogle interview Tom Kloza about U.S. refineries and why Canadian oil is needed in the United States. // For the intro, Kelly and Joe talk about Doug Ford's surcharge on electricity exports to the U.S. and what it means for North-South electricity trade. // Guest Bio: - Tom Kloza is Global Head of Energy Analysis at OPIS // Host Bio: - Kelly Ogle is Managing Director of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute - Joe Calnan is an Energy Security Analyst and Energy Security Forum Manager at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute // Reading recommendations: - "The Bee Sting: A Novel", by Paul Murray: https://www.amazon.ca/Bee-Sting-Novel-Paul-Murray/dp/0374600309 - "The Nix", by Nathan Hill: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/books/530893/the-nix-by-nathan-hill/9781101970348 - "The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't", by Nate Silver: https://www.amazon.ca/Signal-Noise-Many-Predictions-Fail-but/dp/0143125087 // Interview recording Date: March 6, 2025 // Energy Security Cubed is part of the CGAI Podcast Network. Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs), or on LinkedIn. Head over to our website at www.cgai.ca for more commentary. // Produced by Joe Calnan. Music credits to Drew Phillips.

Share this episode: https://www.samharris.org/podcasts/making-sense-episodes/389-the-politics-of-risk Sam Harris speaks with Nate Silver about cultural attitudes toward risk and the state of American politics. They discuss the erosion of trust in liberal institutions, polling and political narratives, different camps of cultural elites, the influence of Silicon Valley, Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, Sam Bankman-Fried and the fall of FTX, Gell-Mann amnesia, Christopher Rufo, why Kamala Harris can’t admit to having changed her views, a problem with strict utilitarianism, AI and existential risk, what people misunderstand about election forecasting, which news events have affected the 2024 race, how current polls might be misleading, public vs. private polling, undecided and marginal voters, Gen Z, the gender divide, the likelihood that Trump won’t accept the election results if he loses, election integrity in the swing states, the chance of a landslide, the prospect of public unrest, and other topics. Nate Silver is a statistician, writer, and poker player. He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight and author of the New York Times best sellers The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don't and On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything. He writes the Substack Silver Bulletin. Twitter: @NateSilver538 Learning how to train your mind is the single greatest investment you can make in life. That’s why Sam Harris created the Waking Up app. From rational mindfulness practice to lessons on some of life’s most important topics, join Sam as he demystifies the practice of meditation and explores the theory behind it.

Alex speaks with Alex Edmans about his book May Contain Lies, examining the widespread issue of misinformation and exploring how factors like confirmation bias, cognitive shortcuts, and misleading statistics can shape public opinion. They discuss practical strategies for identifying and avoiding misinformation, along with the broader societal impact of misinterpreted data. References "May Contain Lies" by Alex Edmans Link: https://a.co/d/aX2AJ0I "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman Link: https://www.amazon.ca/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0385676530 "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction" by Philip E. Tetlock Link: https://www.amazon.ca/Superforecasting-Art-Science-Philip-Tetlock/dp/0804136696 "Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World – and Why Things Are Better Than You Think" by Hans Rosling Link: https://www.amazon.ca/Factfulness-Reasons-World-Things-Better/dp/1250107814 "The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don't" by Nate Silver Link: https://www.amazon.ca/Signal-Noise-Many-Predictions-Fail/dp/0143125087 "How to Lie with Statistics" by Darrell Huff Link: https://www.amazon.ca/How-Lie-Statistics-Darrell-Huff/dp/0393310728 "Start With Why" by Simon Sinek Link: https://www.amazon.ca/Start-Why-Leaders-Inspire-Everyone/dp/1591846447 Thanks to our patrons including: Amy Willis, Kris Rondolo, and Christopher McDonald. To become a patron, go to patreon.com/curioustask

Nate Silver is an American statistician, poker player, and New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail -- but Some Don't . Nate's latest book is On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, where he dives into the worlds of Doyle Brunson, Peter Thiel, Sam Bankman-Fried, Sam Altman, and more. These professional high risk-takers fall into the group that Nate describes as “The River”, a community of people that have increasing amounts of wealth and power in our society.Nate came to the Daily Stoic studio to talk with Ryan about incentives in large media corporations with independent media, ethical challenges of audience capture, financial motives in journalism, conflicts between truth-seeking and profitability, the dynamics of tech versus traditional media, effective altruism, and much more. Nate is the founder of FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and The Noise.

ARCTICA: Perspectives, Philosophy, and Culture from the NorthHosted by Miaraq, Warren Jones Warren is a Northern philosopher, husband, father of four, fisherman, and a Marine Corp veteran. He is Alaska Native with Gwich'in, Yup'ik and Iñupiaq ancestors. A lifelong Alaskan, Warren was born in Bethel and raised in Nome and Palmer. In Episode 3 of ARCTICA, Warren is joined by Anchorage-based photojournalist and documentary photographer Ash Adams. Adams' work has been featured in The New York Times, The New Yorker, National Geographic, The Wall Street Journal, Rolling Stone, TIME, Vogue, and many other national and international publications. Adams is a recipient of a National Geographic Society grant, a 2018 VSCO Voices grantee, and was named one of Time's 51 Instagram photographers to follow in 2016. In 2019, Adams was awarded one of six Sony Alpha Female Creator-in-Residence awards. Warren and Ash discuss a range of topics including cancel culture, accountability culture, restorative justice, and how they all relate to the Indigenous worldview, parenting, kindness as an evolutionary trait, and systemic issues that require systemic solutions.Reference Links – Mentioned in this Episode:“Decolonize Your Mind” by Warren Jones featured in Patagonia“Not All Men”Restorative JusticeOpening the Box of Knowledge Podcast “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don't” by Nate Silver“She Said: Breaking the Sexual Harassment Story That Helped Ignite a Movement” by Jodi KantorStatistics of Violence Against Women in AlaskaFollow us on Instagram, X, and Facebook: @arcticapodcastARCTICA Podcast is recorded on Dena'ina land in Anchorage, Alaska and is produced by Alaska Venture Fund as part of Aywaa Storyhouse.Music: "Anirniq" by Silla & Rise

Data scientist Nate Silver gained attention for his election predictions. But even the best prognosticators get it wrong sometimes. He talks to Steve about making good decisions with data, why he'd rather write a newsletter than an academic paper, and how online poker led him to the world of politics.  RESOURCES"Not Everyone Who Disagrees With You Is a Closet Right-Winger," by Nate Silver (Silver Bulletin, 2023)."The 2 Key Facts About U.S. Covid Policy That Everyone Should Know," by Nate Silver (Silver Bulletin, 2023)."Excess Death Rates for Republican and Democratic Registered Voters in Florida and Ohio During the Covid-19 Pandemic," by Jacob Wallace, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Jason L. Schwartz (JAMA Internal Medicine, 2023)."Why Weather Forecasting Keeps Getting Better," by Hannah Fry (The New Yorker, 2019)."Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else," by Nate Silver (FiveThirtyEight, 2016).The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don't, by Nate Silver (2012).EXTRAS"Steven Strogatz Thinks You Don't Know What Math Is," by People I (Mostly) Admire (2023)."A Rockstar Chemist and Her Cancer-Attacking 'Lawn Mower,'" by People I (Mostly) Admire (2022)."What's the Secret to Making a Great Prediction?" by No Stupid Questions (2021)."How to Be Less Terrible at Predicting the Future," by Freakonomics Radio (2016)."Nate Silver Says: 'Everyone Is Kind of Weird,'" by Freakonomics Radio (2015)."The Folly of Prediction," by Freakonomics Radio (2011).

Hugo speaks with JD Long, agricultural economist, quant, and stochastic modeler, about decision making under uncertainty and how we can use our knowledge of risk, uncertainty, probabilistic thinking, causal inference, and more to help us use data science and machine learning to make better decisions in an uncertain world. This is part 2 of a two part conversation in which we delve into decision making under uncertainty. Feel free to check out part 1 here (https://vanishinggradients.fireside.fm/15) but this episode should also stand alone. Why am I speaking to JD about all of this? Because not only is he a wild conversationalist with a real knack for explaining hard to grok concepts with illustrative examples and useful stories, but he has worked for many years in re-insurance, that's right, not insurance but re-insurance – these are the people who insure the insurers so if anyone can actually tell us about risk and uncertainty in decision making, it's him! In part 1, we discussed risk, uncertainty, probabilistic thinking, and simulation, all with a view towards improving decision making. In this, part 2, we discuss the ins and outs of decision making under uncertainty, including How data science can be more tightly coupled with the decision function in organisations; Some common mistakes and failure modes of making decisions under uncertainty; Heuristics for principled decision-making in data science; The intersection of model building, storytelling, and cognitive biases to keep in mind; As JD says, and I paraphrase, “You may think you train your models, but your models are really training you.” Links Vanishing Gradients' new YouTube channel! (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_NafIo-Ku2loOLrzm45ABA) JD on twitter (https://twitter.com/CMastication) Executive Data Science, episode 5 of Vanishing Gradients, in which Jim Savage and Hugo talk through decision making and why you should always be integrating your loss function over your posterior (https://vanishinggradients.fireside.fm/5) Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fooled_by_Randomness) Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting:_The_Art_and_Science_of_Prediction) Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke (https://www.penguin.com.au/books/thinking-in-bets-9780735216372) The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail by Nate Silver (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Signal_and_the_Noise) Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thinking,_Fast_and_Slow)

Hugo speaks with JD Long, agricultural economist, quant, and stochastic modeler, about decision making under uncertainty and how we can use our knowledge of risk, uncertainty, probabilistic thinking, causal inference, and more to help us use data science and machine learning to make better decisions in an uncertain world. This is part 1 of a two part conversation. In this, part 1, we discuss risk, uncertainty, probabilistic thinking, and simulation, all with a view towards improving decision making and we draw on examples from our personal lives, the pandemic, our jobs, the reinsurance space, and the corporate world. In part 2, we'll get into the nitty gritty of decision making under uncertainty. As JD says, and I paraphrase, “You may think you train your models, but your models are really training you.” Links Vanishing Gradients' new YouTube channel! () JD on twitter (https://twitter.com/CMastication) Executive Data Science, episode 5 of Vanishing Gradients, in which Jim Savage and Hugo talk through decision making and why you should always be integrating your loss function over your posterior (https://vanishinggradients.fireside.fm/5) Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fooled_by_Randomness) Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting:_The_Art_and_Science_of_Prediction) Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke (https://www.penguin.com.au/books/thinking-in-bets-9780735216372) The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail by Nate Silver (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Signal_and_the_Noise) Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thinking,_Fast_and_Slow)

Das Thema der Signifikanz ist ein - wenn nicht der - Grundbaustein der Statistik. In dieser Episode widmen wir uns dem Konzept dieses statistischen Standard-Werkzeugs und klären vor allem welche Rolle Signifikanz im Bereich Data Science und Machine Learning spielt. Links: Silver, N. (2012). The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't. USA: Penguin Publishing Group.

In this episode, Carly interviews luxury marketing consultant + coach, Hunter Welling. They discuss evaluating your life on a scale from easy to hard, ditching productivity, their favorite app, + a powerful twist on affirmations. Hunter also shares about a book she is reading about seeing through the data + they toast to launching something new!You can find Hunter Welling on her website or Instagram. Resources mentioned in the episode:Burnout: The Secret to Unlocking the Stress CycleThe Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't1-year of free membership in The AgenShe Club. The AgenShe Club is a membership delivering weekly insights for tuning into your intuition, trusting your body, and making sure your business is aligned with what you really want. Use code CARLY at checkout to get one year free (regularly $264). Book your free consultation call with Carly here.

In today's episode we talk about how to be a rational investor. We have relied on excerpts from “Adaptive Markets: Financial Evolution at the Speed of Thought” by Andrew Lo and Nate Silver's “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't”, to put this story together

For more on Michael visit: https://michaelwstory.com/ Follow Michael on Twitter @MWStory Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (2015) Tom Chivers, The AI Does Not Hate You: Superintelligence, Rationality and the Race to Save the World (2019) Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don't (2012) James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few (2005) Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974) Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/ Timestamps 03:43 The process of superforecasting with the example of predicting how long it would take to develop a coronavirus vaccine 12:50 The wisdom of crowds 18:04 The inside vs. outside view, anchors and base rates 23:15 The foxes versus the hedgehogs 29:39 The conjunction fallacy 37:15 Accountability, falsifiability, Brier scores 46:54 Loss of institutional credibility: a problem or an opportunity? 01:02:05 The importance of A/B testing 01:06:36 Back of the envelope (Fermi) calculations 01:12:11 Psychological characteristics of superforecasters, caring about being wrong

One of the key features of the democratic process is opinion polling, whether it is leader likability or attitudes on various issues. But do these snapshots of the horserace have an impact on the race itself? How has scientific polling and statistical analysis changed? How will it change in the years to come? And, what happens when the data shows us that the story we think is happening is not the one actually playing out? Ben joins writer and political analyst Eric Grenier at his CBC office in Ottawa. About the Guest Éric Grenier is a senior writer and the CBC's polls analyst. He was the founder of ThreeHundredEight.com and has written for The Globe and Mail, Huffington Post Canada, The Hill Times, Le Devoir, and L’actualité. Mentioned in this Episode FiveThirtyEight, a comprehensive website dedicated to statistics, especially related to politics, founded by Nate Silver Outliers: The Story of Success, a 2008 book by Malcolm Gladwell in which he describes his popular theory of the 10,000 hours needed to master a skill "The Polls Are All Right", a 2018 article written by Nate Silver for FiveThirtyEight Episode 3 of Bob Rae's Political Stripes podcast, featuring an interview with guest Eric Grenier The Quote of the Week "One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening." - From The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail (2012) by Nate Silver

It’s that time of year when many are preparing for vacation and looking for some reading material to take with them.  This week Jim, Jon, and Jason discuss what is on their summer reading list and other recommendations they have.   BOOK RECOMMENDATIONS The Laws of Human Nature The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference Let My People Go Surfing: The Education of a Reluctant Businessman--Including 10 More Years of Business Unusual Thirst: A Story of Redemption, Compassion, and a Mission to Bring Clean Water to the World The Consulting Bible: Everything You Need to Know to Create and Expand a Seven-Figure Consulting Practice Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World--and Why Things Are Better Than You Think Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind Capital Gaines: Smart Things I Learned Doing Stupid Stuff Never Split the Difference: Negotiating As If Your Life Depended On It Why We Buy: The Science of Shopping--Updated and Revised for the Internet, the Global Consumer, and Beyond Creating a Data-Driven Organization: Practical Advice from the Trenches Believe It: My Journey of Success, Failure, and Overcoming the Odds Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance: An Inquiry into Values     THANK YOU We know your time is limited, so it means a lot to us that you would spend some of your time with us. If you have found this episode to be valuable, we would appreciate if you would share using one of the social media buttons bellow    And if we are getting you hooked, don’t forget to subscribe, like, and recommend on your favorite podcast platform.   Subscribe on iTunes: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/33-tangents/id1384329330 Listen on TuneIn: https://tunein.com/podcasts/Technology-Podcasts/33-Tangents-p1129251/     WHERE TO FIND US Website: www.33sticks.com Email: Podcast@33sticks.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/33Sticks Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/33sticks/  

In this episode, CJ covers some of the latest news in the cloud while AC sat down to talk to Microsoft MVP Matt Wade about his popular Periodic Table of Office 365. Learn this history behind this popular resource & where it’s going in the future!Guest Matt Wade, JumpTo365 & Microsoft MVP News The productivity pit: how Slack is ruining work Slack files to go public, revealing $400 million in revenue and $139 million in losses Cloud database removed after exposing details on 80 million US households The Most Valuable Company (for Now) Is Having a Nadellaissance Microsoft adds more AI, mixed-reality, IoT services to its Azure line-up Tinder’s move to Kubernetes The periodic table of Office 365 The table of Azure Cognitive Services JumpTo365 Pro Trial Picks AC’s Pick The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don’t CJ’s Picks NASA was sold faulty rocket parts for almost 20 years Matt Wade’s Picks Master of Her Domain… Name What the FBI Files Reveal About Hillary Clinton’s Email Server

Takeaways Learn How to Learn: When tackling any new topic or initiative the first question you have to ask yourself is “why.” The second question should be “how.” Using the notion of synthesis, take all the artifacts, insights, and data points you can find from a variety of sources and then apply it to your own situation. This should help you determine at least one hypothesis as a starting point. And for crying out loud, pick up a book and start reading. Remember Who the Credibility Belongs To: No one cares what you know or what you think. The truth is, prospects are looking for a way to prove salespeople wrong. So, when you don’t have credibility, invoke those that do — i.e. your customers or external reports. When you can cite 3rd party research or share stories from successful customers, your story is more likely to stick. Every Objection Has a Hidden Meaning: Regardless of the type of objection you hear, you have to get to the root cause of the statement. While your prospect may seem to be evoking logic, there is always an underlying emotional reason. Find it and you’ll unlock the path to getting a deal done. One good exercise to go through on this is to state the objection and then insert a blank. If your prospect says “it’s too expensive,” go through all the possible things that could follow that statement to get to the root cause. Full Notes  https://www.salestuners.com/david-priemer Book Recommendations The One Thing: The Surprisingly Simple Truth Behind Extraordinary Results by Jay Papasan Essentialism: The Disciplined Pursuit of Less by Greg McKeown The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't by Nate Silver Sponsor Costello-What if every sales rep inherited the habits of your best rep? With Costello, they do.

Don Moxley is an exercise physiologist and the Sports Scientist for the Ohio State University Wrestling Team.  With a passion for teaching and coaching, he specializes in fitness and athletic assessment, training, and performance optimization.  Under his guidance, the OSU team won their first-ever National Championship in 2015, and individuals on the team have gone on to win national titles and Olympic medals.  His strategy involves analyzing Heart Rate Variability (HRV) and other biomarkers in order to plan personalized training and recovery regimens for his athletes. Don is here today with Dr. Tommy Wood to discuss using wearable technology to track readiness, improve resilience, and prevent overtraining and injuries. He shares the powerful impact of psychological stress, sleep, and recovery on athletic performance, and also reveals the key performance indicators for world-class wrestling, as well as the devices and assessment strategies he uses for his own athletes.    Here’s the outline of this interview with Don Moxley: [00:00:16] Ohio State Wrestling Team, Sports Scientist. [00:00:25] Elite HRV podcast. [00:00:49] Podcast: Optimal Diet and Movement for Healthspan, Amplified Intelligence and More with Ken Ford. [00:01:00] Florida Institute for Human & Machine Cognition (IHMC). [00:03:19] Bob Bartels, Edward Fox. [00:03:53] Kevin Akins. [00:04:03] Louie Simmons, Westside Barbell. [00:04:28] Ted Lambrinides Hammer Strength. [00:04:42] Steve Bliss, National Strength and Conditioning Association (NSCA). [00:06:16] Human Performance Center at Columbus State Community College. [00:06:38] HealthFirst, Polar. [00:07:35] Applying technology to exercise science. [00:09:13] Wrestling overview. [00:09:56] Weight cutting. [00:12:16] Long term athlete development model. [00:13:51] Tom Ryan. [00:14:14] Velotron, CompuTrainer. [00:14:37] Pelatonia fundraiser. [00:15:45] Zephyr bioharness. [00:16:33] Overtraining syndrome. [00:17:31] Readiness, Root Mean Square of the Successive Differences (RMSSD). [00:20:11] Functional Movement Screening [00:21:15] Raouf “Ron” Gharbo. [00:21:35] Firstbeat system. [00:21:54] Resting nighttime RMSSD predicts success. [00:22:46] Polar Team Pro Shirt. [00:23:02] AccuroFit. [00:23:18] Omegawave. Podcast: How to Measure Readiness to Train, with Val Nasedkin. [00:24:19] Effect of emotional stress on physiology. [00:27:30] Talent but no resilience. [00:28:13] Study: Prochaska, James O., and Wayne F. Velicer. "The transtheoretical model of health behavior change." American journal of health promotion 12.1 (1997): 38-48. [00:31:00] Study: Marshall, Simon J., and Stuart JH Biddle. "The transtheoretical model of behavior change: a meta-analysis of applications to physical activity and exercise." Annals of behavioral medicine 23.4 (2001): 229-246. Podcast: How to Create Behaviour Change, with Simon Marshall, PhD. [00:31:53] Elite HRV. [00:32:09] HR transmitter sampling at >200hz; Polar monitors (H7, H10), Ouraring. [00:33:40] Tracking and improving sleep. [00:36:02] Book: The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don’t, by Nate Silver. [00:36:14] Wearable data systems: Zebra, Catapult. [00:37:26] Factors that correlate with athletic success. [00:41:37] Parasympathetic, sympathetic. [00:43:54] Parasympathetic co-stimulation. [00:46:06] Subjective questions. [00:49:22] Faster buy-in. [00:50:24] Female athletes. [00:51:07] Managing the athlete's stress response. [00:52:22] Observing coaches. [00:53:14] Best practice for athlete and coach. [00:55:07] Find Don: donmoxley@gmail, Instagram, Twitter, Facebook, about.me.

On this week's show, we share two of our favorite interviews. Motley Fool CEO Tom Gardner talks Facebook, Amazon, Google, and Tesla with best-selling author David Kirkpatrick. And we revisit our interview with writer and statistician Nate Silver, author of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't. 

Nate Silver is the founder of FiveThirtyEight and the author of The Signal and the Noise. “I know in a perfectly rational world, if you make an 80/20 prediction, people should know that not only will this prediction not be right all the time, but you did something wrong if it’s never wrong. The 20% underdog should come through sometimes. People in sports understand that sometimes a 15 seed beats a 2 seed in the NCAA tournament. That’s much harder to explain to people in politics.” Thanks to MailChimp, Bombas, Squarespace, and Trunk Club for sponsoring this week's episode. Show Notes: @NateSilver538 fivethirtyeight.com Silver on Longform [2:00] FiveThirtyEight Podcasts [2:00] "Why The Dean Scream Sounded So Different On TV" (Jody Avirgan, Clare Malone • FiveThirtyEight) [10:00] The Burrito Bracket [12:00] Silver’s Daily Kos Archive [19:00] The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don’t (Penguin Books • 2012) [19:00] "FiveThirtyEight’s 2012 Forecast" (New York Times • Nov 2012) [45:00] "Donald Trump Is the World’s Greatest Troll" (FiveThirtyEight • Jul 2015)

1.Click this text, go to iTunes,   2. Click "View in iTunes" blue button   3. Subscribe and give us a rating! Thanks! JOE FULD,  is the founder of "The Campaign Workshop" a Democratic political consulting firm based in Washington DC.  Joe is known for his creativity and commitment to the causes and campaigns.  In this episode, Joe unveils his timeline in an enjoyable and highly interesting story format. So if you are interested in a career in politic, make sure you  listen to this episode as well as episode #6 at Politics of Success. Now, without further ado, let's get right into the conversation with Joe. BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: Find the work you love. BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT QUESTIONS:  Are you a MAC or PC and what brand of phone do you use? Joe uses a MAC Book Air and he is talking to us today on it with Skype (Sound is Good). What is your favorite technology, hardware or software?   Big fan of WordPress, with SEO Yoast, and  Contactually (used for contact management). What is your favorite quote? “If opportunity doesn't knock, build a door” Milton Berle   (Define what your goals are and others can see how they can help you achieve these goals." What are your favorite books? Delivering Happiness: A Path to Profits, Passion, and Purpose.  By Tony Hsieh,  Setting the Table: The Transforming Power of Hospitality in Business by Danny Meyer,  The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don't by Nate Silver, The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns by Sasha Issenberg and Plunkitt of Tammany Hall by Senator George Washington Plunkitt (Ret). What is the best advice you have ever received?  Find work that you love to do. LEISURE:  Joe loves to enjoy his family and has a passion of cooking especially with his kids. CONTACT INFORMATION:   Website: www.TheCampaignWorkshop.com A must read blog: http://thecampaignworkshop.com/blog/ YOUR FAVORITE FOOD: Natural food and local produce. Meatballs is a family favorite.

Our analysts talk about some stocks they're thankful for and discuss a few turkeys.  Plus, New York Times columnist Nate Silver shares some investing insights from his new book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don’t.

This week, President Obama wins another four years-- what tech aided to win him the election, and what can we look forward to from his tech agenda?, Frankenstorm Sandy gives Instagram growing pains,  Microsoft's rumored XBOX tablet, and how can we not geek out over the Disney's purchase of Lucasfilm? Headlines Obama Wins The Election! Here's His Technology Agenda How Obama's Data Crunchers Helped Him Win Instagram Launches Web Profiles, Looking Much Like Facebook Timeline 800K #Sandy-grams Showed Systrom Instagram Is “Going To Need To Be A Big Data Co. Audible Book of the Week The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't by Nate Silver Musical Interlude: Lando's Palace from "The Empire Strikes Back" by John Williams More Headlines Disney buys Lucasfilm for $4.05B including ILM, LucasArts and other tech, Star Wars 7 coming in 2015 Xbox Surface: Microsoft's 7-inch gaming tablet Outro: Ewok Celebration from "Return of the Jedi" by John Williams Subscribe! The Drill Down on iTunes (Subscribe now!) Add us on Stitcher! The Drill Down on Facebook The Drill Down on Twitter Geeks Of Doom's The Drill Down is a roundtable-style audio podcast where we discuss the most important issues of the week, in tech and on the web and how they affect us all. Hosts are Geeks of Doom contributor Andrew Sorcini (Mr. BabyMan), VentureBeat editor Devindra Hardawar, marketing research analyst Dwayne De Freitas, and Startup Digest CTO Christopher Burnor. Occasionally joining them is Box.com tech consultant Tosin Onafowokan.

Filmspotting crosses continents and generations in search of the true-true with a discussion of "Cloud Atlas." Plus, inspired the busy ensemble in "Atlas," a countdown of the Top 5 Multiple Role Performances... And oh "Super Fly," you’re gonna make your fortune by and by... Adam and Josh cover the second film in their Blaxploitation Marathon. This episode is presented by Audible.com. :00-1:18 - Intro 1:19-22:54 - Review: "Cloud Atlas" Music: Michael Kiwanuka, "Home Again" 24:04-28:38 - Audible 28:58-34:48 - Massacre Theatre 34:49-41:14 - Polls, Notes 41:15-55:47 - Blaxploitation #2: "Super Fly" Music: Michael Kiwanuka, "Tell Me a Tale" 57:07-1:02:49 - Donations 1:03:09-1:26:33 - Top 5: Multiple Role Performances 1:26:34-1:28:15 - Close BONUS CONTENT - Argo eff yourself! MUSIC - Michael Kiwanuka NOTES - Massacre Theatre winner: Joshua Gaul - Audible Recs: "Telegraph Avenue," "A Wrinkle in Time," "A Swiftly Tilting Planet," "The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't" LINKS - Stitcher Awards/Vote for Filmspotting - Caitlin's "Out Loud Writing" Blog - Pat's "Filmcast Without a Cause" site SPONSORS / PARTNERS - Fandor.com/Filmspotting - The Q&A with Jeff Goldsmith- iTunes Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Apple CEO Tim Cook issues an apology over the iPhone5’s maps.  Research In Motion has a rare earnings win.  And America steels itself for a global bacon shortage.  Plus Nate Silver talks investing, elections and baseball in his new book The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don’t.