Podcasts about Folly

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Best podcasts about Folly

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Latest podcast episodes about Folly

ESV: Daily Wisdom from Proverbs
August 11: Proverbs 22:14–15

ESV: Daily Wisdom from Proverbs

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 11, 2022 0:15


Proverbs 22:14–15 Proverbs 22:14–15 (Listen) 14   The mouth of forbidden1 women is a deep pit;    he with whom the LORD is angry will fall into it.15   Folly is bound up in the heart of a child,    but the rod of discipline drives it far from him. Footnotes [1] 22:14 Hebrew strange (ESV)

Jacobin Radio
A World to Win: The Folly of Green Capitalism w/ Adrienne Buller

Jacobin Radio

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 10, 2022 48:52


This week, Grace speaks to Adrienne Buller, author of The Value of a Whale: On the Illusions of Green Capitalism. They discuss what "green capitalism" actually is, how it is being embedded in international law, whether or not it is an inherently anti-democratic movement, and how it is linked to issues today like the cost-of-living crisis.A World to Win is a podcast from Grace Blakeley and Tribune bringing you a weekly dose of socialist news, theory, and action with guests from around the world. Thanks to our producer Conor Gillies and to the Lipman-Miliband Trust for making this episode possible. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

ReCreate Church's Podcast
Recreate Church, Pastor Michael Shockley—Service, Sunday, August 7, 2022

ReCreate Church's Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 9, 2022 31:36


Is Following Jesus Worth the Cost? Today, Pastor Michael is discussing Seward's Folly, the purchase of Alaska coordinated by William Seward.  Many felt it wasn't worth the cost, but William Seward felt it would be an asset for America.  Today only a few states have more millionaires per capita than Alaska, a treasure trove of natural resources. Many felt it was not worth the cost. The cost of following Jesus.  Be sure, there is a cost to follow Jesus. Is following Jesus worth the cost? In Mark, we find John is in prison.  John is in prison for doing what was ‘right'.  King Herod would send for John to talk spiritual things, however he got upset with John when Herod confided to John that he had stolen his brother's wife.  And John confronted him about that.  So what did Herod do?  He put John in prison.  So John paid a price for following Jesus.  Yet he never complained about that.  John understood the story wasn't about him.  He sent a messenger to Jesus and wondered, did he do the right thing?  He became imprisoned over it.  The messenger told John of the miracles that Jesus was performing and lives were being changed by the Gospel. John knew then he had made the right decision.  Perhaps it's time for us to step out of the way and let someone else to shine.  Or maybe YOU step up and prepare for the ministry God has prepared you for.  We are afraid to reach for the things God has set aside for us.   The cost can be high but so worth it! Verses can be found today in Mark: 1: 14-20. Scripture quotations marked CSB have been taken from the Christian Standard Bible®, Copyright © 2017 by Holman Bible Publishers. Used by permission. Christian Standard Bible® and CSB® are federally registered trademarks of Holman Bible Publishers.

Confession on SermonAudio
Idolatry's Folly

Confession on SermonAudio

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 8, 2022 54:00


A new MP3 sermon from Hudsonville Protestant Reformed Church is now available on SermonAudio with the following details: Title: Idolatry's Folly Speaker: Prof. Barry Gritters Broadcaster: Hudsonville Protestant Reformed Church Event: Sunday - PM Date: 8/7/2022 Bible: Psalm 115:3-8 Length: 54 min.

New Books in Literary Studies
Alice M. Kelly, "Decolonising the Conrad Canon" (Liverpool UP, 2022)

New Books in Literary Studies

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 8, 2022 49:35


With the pressing work of decolonising our reading lists gaining traction in UK higher educational contexts, Decolonising the Conrad Canon (Liverpool UP, 2022) shows how those author-Gods most associated with the colonial literary canon can also be retooled through decolonial, queer, feminist readings. This book finds pockets of powerful anti-colonial resistance and queer dissonance in Joseph Conrad's lesser-known works - breathing spaces from the colonial rhetoric that dominates his novels - and traces the female characters who voice them off the page and into their transmedia (digital/illustrative/cinematic) afterlives. From Immada and Edith's queer gaze in The Rescue and the periodical illustrations that accompanied its initial serialization, to Aïssa's sustained critique of imperialism in An Outcast of the Islands and her portrayal on mass-market paperback book covers, to the structural female bonds of Almayer's Folly and Nina's embodiment in Chantal Akerman's adaptation La Folie Almayer, this book centres Conrad's female characters as viable, meaning-making citizens of the canon. Through this intervention, Decolonising the Conrad Canon proposes an innovative model for teaching, reading and studying not just Joseph Conrad's work but the colonial literary canon more broadly. Dr. Alice Kelly is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the University of Edinburgh.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/literary-studies

New Books Network
Alice M. Kelly, "Decolonising the Conrad Canon" (Liverpool UP, 2022)

New Books Network

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 8, 2022 49:35


With the pressing work of decolonising our reading lists gaining traction in UK higher educational contexts, Decolonising the Conrad Canon (Liverpool UP, 2022) shows how those author-Gods most associated with the colonial literary canon can also be retooled through decolonial, queer, feminist readings. This book finds pockets of powerful anti-colonial resistance and queer dissonance in Joseph Conrad's lesser-known works - breathing spaces from the colonial rhetoric that dominates his novels - and traces the female characters who voice them off the page and into their transmedia (digital/illustrative/cinematic) afterlives. From Immada and Edith's queer gaze in The Rescue and the periodical illustrations that accompanied its initial serialization, to Aïssa's sustained critique of imperialism in An Outcast of the Islands and her portrayal on mass-market paperback book covers, to the structural female bonds of Almayer's Folly and Nina's embodiment in Chantal Akerman's adaptation La Folie Almayer, this book centres Conrad's female characters as viable, meaning-making citizens of the canon. Through this intervention, Decolonising the Conrad Canon proposes an innovative model for teaching, reading and studying not just Joseph Conrad's work but the colonial literary canon more broadly. Dr. Alice Kelly is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the University of Edinburgh.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

New Books in British Studies
Alice M. Kelly, "Decolonising the Conrad Canon" (Liverpool UP, 2022)

New Books in British Studies

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 8, 2022 49:35


With the pressing work of decolonising our reading lists gaining traction in UK higher educational contexts, Decolonising the Conrad Canon (Liverpool UP, 2022) shows how those author-Gods most associated with the colonial literary canon can also be retooled through decolonial, queer, feminist readings. This book finds pockets of powerful anti-colonial resistance and queer dissonance in Joseph Conrad's lesser-known works - breathing spaces from the colonial rhetoric that dominates his novels - and traces the female characters who voice them off the page and into their transmedia (digital/illustrative/cinematic) afterlives. From Immada and Edith's queer gaze in The Rescue and the periodical illustrations that accompanied its initial serialization, to Aïssa's sustained critique of imperialism in An Outcast of the Islands and her portrayal on mass-market paperback book covers, to the structural female bonds of Almayer's Folly and Nina's embodiment in Chantal Akerman's adaptation La Folie Almayer, this book centres Conrad's female characters as viable, meaning-making citizens of the canon. Through this intervention, Decolonising the Conrad Canon proposes an innovative model for teaching, reading and studying not just Joseph Conrad's work but the colonial literary canon more broadly. Dr. Alice Kelly is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the University of Edinburgh.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/british-studies

New Books in Biography
Alice M. Kelly, "Decolonising the Conrad Canon" (Liverpool UP, 2022)

New Books in Biography

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 8, 2022 49:35


With the pressing work of decolonising our reading lists gaining traction in UK higher educational contexts, Decolonising the Conrad Canon (Liverpool UP, 2022) shows how those author-Gods most associated with the colonial literary canon can also be retooled through decolonial, queer, feminist readings. This book finds pockets of powerful anti-colonial resistance and queer dissonance in Joseph Conrad's lesser-known works - breathing spaces from the colonial rhetoric that dominates his novels - and traces the female characters who voice them off the page and into their transmedia (digital/illustrative/cinematic) afterlives. From Immada and Edith's queer gaze in The Rescue and the periodical illustrations that accompanied its initial serialization, to Aïssa's sustained critique of imperialism in An Outcast of the Islands and her portrayal on mass-market paperback book covers, to the structural female bonds of Almayer's Folly and Nina's embodiment in Chantal Akerman's adaptation La Folie Almayer, this book centres Conrad's female characters as viable, meaning-making citizens of the canon. Through this intervention, Decolonising the Conrad Canon proposes an innovative model for teaching, reading and studying not just Joseph Conrad's work but the colonial literary canon more broadly. Dr. Alice Kelly is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the University of Edinburgh.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/biography

New Books in European Studies
Alice M. Kelly, "Decolonising the Conrad Canon" (Liverpool UP, 2022)

New Books in European Studies

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 8, 2022 49:35


With the pressing work of decolonising our reading lists gaining traction in UK higher educational contexts, Decolonising the Conrad Canon (Liverpool UP, 2022) shows how those author-Gods most associated with the colonial literary canon can also be retooled through decolonial, queer, feminist readings. This book finds pockets of powerful anti-colonial resistance and queer dissonance in Joseph Conrad's lesser-known works - breathing spaces from the colonial rhetoric that dominates his novels - and traces the female characters who voice them off the page and into their transmedia (digital/illustrative/cinematic) afterlives. From Immada and Edith's queer gaze in The Rescue and the periodical illustrations that accompanied its initial serialization, to Aïssa's sustained critique of imperialism in An Outcast of the Islands and her portrayal on mass-market paperback book covers, to the structural female bonds of Almayer's Folly and Nina's embodiment in Chantal Akerman's adaptation La Folie Almayer, this book centres Conrad's female characters as viable, meaning-making citizens of the canon. Through this intervention, Decolonising the Conrad Canon proposes an innovative model for teaching, reading and studying not just Joseph Conrad's work but the colonial literary canon more broadly. Dr. Alice Kelly is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the University of Edinburgh.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/european-studies

Hope Community Church Of Lowell

The Folly of Seduction by Pastor Andy Wahlstrom. The Wisdom For Today series a study in Proverbs. You can watch or listen online at www.hopechurchlowell.com/live The post The Folly of Seduction appeared first on Hope Community Church Of Lowell.

Bedrock Church Roanoke
Wisdom and Folly - Mental Health

Bedrock Church Roanoke

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 7, 2022 44:47


Thanks for joining us at as we continue in our series of Wisdom and Folly. If you have any questions Welcome to Bedrock Roanoke! Grab some coffee, your bible and a pen and get ready to worship Jesus! First time viewer? Have a prayer request? Want to follow Jesus? Click here. https://bedrockroanoke.churchcenter.c... Give online here. https://bedrockroanoke.churchcenter.c... Bedrock Roanoke Streaming CCLI License Number - 48268456

Redeemer RGV
Ecclesiastes Series #17: Contrast Between Folly and Wisdom (Ecclesiastes 10:1-20) - Juan Curling

Redeemer RGV

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 7, 2022 52:39


ESV: Straight through the Bible
August 7: Isaiah 44–48

ESV: Straight through the Bible

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 7, 2022 18:19


Isaiah 44–48 Isaiah 44–48 (Listen) Israel the Lord's Chosen 44   “But now hear, O Jacob my servant,    Israel whom I have chosen!2   Thus says the LORD who made you,    who formed you from the womb and will help you:  Fear not, O Jacob my servant,    Jeshurun whom I have chosen.3   For I will pour water on the thirsty land,    and streams on the dry ground;  I will pour my Spirit upon your offspring,    and my blessing on your descendants.4   They shall spring up among the grass    like willows by flowing streams.5   This one will say, ‘I am the LORD's,'    another will call on the name of Jacob,  and another will write on his hand, ‘The LORD's,'    and name himself by the name of Israel.” Besides Me There Is No God 6   Thus says the LORD, the King of Israel    and his Redeemer, the LORD of hosts:  “I am the first and I am the last;    besides me there is no god.7   Who is like me? Let him proclaim it.1    Let him declare and set it before me,  since I appointed an ancient people.    Let them declare what is to come, and what will happen.8   Fear not, nor be afraid;    have I not told you from of old and declared it?    And you are my witnesses!  Is there a God besides me?    There is no Rock; I know not any.” The Folly of Idolatry 9 All who fashion idols are nothing, and the things they delight in do not profit. Their witnesses neither see nor know, that they may be put to shame. 10 Who fashions a god or casts an idol that is profitable for nothing? 11 Behold, all his companions shall be put to shame, and the craftsmen are only human. Let them all assemble, let them stand forth. They shall be terrified; they shall be put to shame together. 12 The ironsmith takes a cutting tool and works it over the coals. He fashions it with hammers and works it with his strong arm. He becomes hungry, and his strength fails; he drinks no water and is faint. 13 The carpenter stretches a line; he marks it out with a pencil.2 He shapes it with planes and marks it with a compass. He shapes it into the figure of a man, with the beauty of a man, to dwell in a house. 14 He cuts down cedars, or he chooses a cypress tree or an oak and lets it grow strong among the trees of the forest. He plants a cedar and the rain nourishes it. 15 Then it becomes fuel for a man. He takes a part of it and warms himself; he kindles a fire and bakes bread. Also he makes a god and worships it; he makes it an idol and falls down before it. 16 Half of it he burns in the fire. Over the half he eats meat; he roasts it and is satisfied. Also he warms himself and says, “Aha, I am warm, I have seen the fire!” 17 And the rest of it he makes into a god, his idol, and falls down to it and worships it. He prays to it and says, “Deliver me, for you are my god!” 18 They know not, nor do they discern, for he has shut their eyes, so that they cannot see, and their hearts, so that they cannot understand. 19 No one considers, nor is there knowledge or discernment to say, “Half of it I burned in the fire; I also baked bread on its coals; I roasted meat and have eaten. And shall I make the rest of it an abomination? Shall I fall down before a block of wood?” 20 He feeds on ashes; a deluded heart has led him astray, and he cannot deliver himself or say, “Is there not a lie in my right hand?” The Lord Redeems Israel 21   Remember these things, O Jacob,    and Israel, for you are my servant;  I formed you; you are my servant;    O Israel, you will not be forgotten by me.22   I have blotted out your transgressions like a cloud    and your sins like mist;  return to me, for I have redeemed you. 23   Sing, O heavens, for the LORD has done it;    shout, O depths of the earth;  break forth into singing, O mountains,    O forest, and every tree in it!  For the LORD has redeemed Jacob,    and will be glorified3 in Israel. 24   Thus says the LORD, your Redeemer,    who formed you from the womb:  “I am the LORD, who made all things,    who alone stretched out the heavens,    who spread out the earth by myself,25   who frustrates the signs of liars    and makes fools of diviners,  who turns wise men back    and makes their knowledge foolish,26   who confirms the word of his servant    and fulfills the counsel of his messengers,  who says of Jerusalem, ‘She shall be inhabited,'    and of the cities of Judah, ‘They shall be built,    and I will raise up their ruins';27   who says to the deep, ‘Be dry;    I will dry up your rivers';28   who says of Cyrus, ‘He is my shepherd,    and he shall fulfill all my purpose';  saying of Jerusalem, ‘She shall be built,'    and of the temple, ‘Your foundation shall be laid.'” Cyrus, God's Instrument 45   Thus says the LORD to his anointed, to Cyrus,    whose right hand I have grasped,  to subdue nations before him    and to loose the belts of kings,  to open doors before him    that gates may not be closed:2   “I will go before you    and level the exalted places,4  I will break in pieces the doors of bronze    and cut through the bars of iron,3   I will give you the treasures of darkness    and the hoards in secret places,  that you may know that it is I, the LORD,    the God of Israel, who call you by your name.4   For the sake of my servant Jacob,    and Israel my chosen,  I call you by your name,    I name you, though you do not know me.5   I am the LORD, and there is no other,    besides me there is no God;    I equip you, though you do not know me,6   that people may know, from the rising of the sun    and from the west, that there is none besides me;    I am the LORD, and there is no other.7   I form light and create darkness;    I make well-being and create calamity;    I am the LORD, who does all these things. 8   “Shower, O heavens, from above,    and let the clouds rain down righteousness;  let the earth open, that salvation and righteousness may bear fruit;    let the earth cause them both to sprout;    I the LORD have created it. 9   “Woe to him who strives with him who formed him,    a pot among earthen pots!  Does the clay say to him who forms it, ‘What are you making?'    or ‘Your work has no handles'?10   Woe to him who says to a father, ‘What are you begetting?'    or to a woman, ‘With what are you in labor?'” 11   Thus says the LORD,    the Holy One of Israel, and the one who formed him:  “Ask me of things to come;    will you command me concerning my children and the work of my hands?512   I made the earth    and created man on it;  it was my hands that stretched out the heavens,    and I commanded all their host.13   I have stirred him up in righteousness,    and I will make all his ways level;  he shall build my city    and set my exiles free,  not for price or reward,”    says the LORD of hosts. The Lord, the Only Savior 14   Thus says the LORD:  “The wealth of Egypt and the merchandise of Cush,    and the Sabeans, men of stature,  shall come over to you and be yours;    they shall follow you;    they shall come over in chains and bow down to you.  They will plead with you, saying:    ‘Surely God is in you, and there is no other,    no god besides him.'” 15   Truly, you are a God who hides himself,    O God of Israel, the Savior.16   All of them are put to shame and confounded;    the makers of idols go in confusion together.17   But Israel is saved by the LORD    with everlasting salvation;  you shall not be put to shame or confounded    to all eternity. 18   For thus says the LORD,  who created the heavens    (he is God!),  who formed the earth and made it    (he established it;  he did not create it empty,    he formed it to be inhabited!):  “I am the LORD, and there is no other.19   I did not speak in secret,    in a land of darkness;  I did not say to the offspring of Jacob,    ‘Seek me in vain.'6  I the LORD speak the truth;    I declare what is right. 20   “Assemble yourselves and come;    draw near together,    you survivors of the nations!  They have no knowledge    who carry about their wooden idols,  and keep on praying to a god    that cannot save.21   Declare and present your case;    let them take counsel together!  Who told this long ago?    Who declared it of old?  Was it not I, the LORD?    And there is no other god besides me,  a righteous God and a Savior;    there is none besides me. 22   “Turn to me and be saved,    all the ends of the earth!    For I am God, and there is no other.23   By myself I have sworn;    from my mouth has gone out in righteousness    a word that shall not return:  ‘To me every knee shall bow,    every tongue shall swear allegiance.'7 24   “Only in the LORD, it shall be said of me,    are righteousness and strength;  to him shall come and be ashamed    all who were incensed against him.25   In the LORD all the offspring of Israel    shall be justified and shall glory.” The Idols of Babylon and the One True God 46   Bel bows down; Nebo stoops;    their idols are on beasts and livestock;  these things you carry are borne    as burdens on weary beasts.2   They stoop; they bow down together;    they cannot save the burden,    but themselves go into captivity. 3   “Listen to me, O house of Jacob,    all the remnant of the house of Israel,  who have been borne by me from before your birth,    carried from the womb;4   even to your old age I am he,    and to gray hairs I will carry you.  I have made, and I will bear;    I will carry and will save. 5   “To whom will you liken me and make me equal,    and compare me, that we may be alike?6   Those who lavish gold from the purse,    and weigh out silver in the scales,  hire a goldsmith, and he makes it into a god;    then they fall down and worship!7   They lift it to their shoulders, they carry it,    they set it in its place, and it stands there;    it cannot move from its place.  If one cries to it, it does not answer    or save him from his trouble. 8   “Remember this and stand firm,    recall it to mind, you transgressors,9     remember the former things of old;  for I am God, and there is no other;    I am God, and there is none like me,10   declaring the end from the beginning    and from ancient times things not yet done,  saying, ‘My counsel shall stand,    and I will accomplish all my purpose,'11   calling a bird of prey from the east,    the man of my counsel from a far country.  I have spoken, and I will bring it to pass;    I have purposed, and I will do it. 12   “Listen to me, you stubborn of heart,    you who are far from righteousness:13   I bring near my righteousness; it is not far off,    and my salvation will not delay;  I will put salvation in Zion,    for Israel my glory.” The Humiliation of Babylon 47   Come down and sit in the dust,    O virgin daughter of Babylon;  sit on the ground without a throne,    O daughter of the Chaldeans!  For you shall no more be called    tender and delicate.2   Take the millstones and grind flour,    put off your veil,  strip off your robe, uncover your legs,    pass through the rivers.3   Your nakedness shall be uncovered,    and your disgrace shall be seen.  I will take vengeance,    and I will spare no one.4   Our Redeemer—the LORD of hosts is his name—    is the Holy One of Israel. 5   Sit in silence, and go into darkness,    O daughter of the Chaldeans;  for you shall no more be called    the mistress of kingdoms.6   I was angry with my people;    I profaned my heritage;  I gave them into your hand;    you showed them no mercy;  on the aged you made your yoke exceedingly heavy.7   You said, “I shall be mistress forever,”    so that you did not lay these things to heart    or remember their end. 8   Now therefore hear this, you lover of pleasures,    who sit securely,  who say in your heart,    “I am, and there is no one besides me;  I shall not sit as a widow    or know the loss of children”:9   These two things shall come to you    in a moment, in one day;  the loss of children and widowhood

Otter Creek Sermons
Back to School: Wisdom OR Folly (Audio)

Otter Creek Sermons

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 7, 2022


TLC Freeland Sermons
8/7/22 "The Folly of Abundance" by Pastor Jim Lindus

TLC Freeland Sermons

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 7, 2022 62:53


Welcome to our online worship service at 8 a.m. Pastor Jim is preaching this morning on the ‘folly of abundance' as depicted in Jesus' parable about the rich man who sought to store up increased riches by building bigger barns rather than sharing his wealth with the poor.

Text Talk
James 1: Doers of the Word

Text Talk

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 4, 2022 15:58


James 1:18-25Andrew returns to the microphone to discuss with Edwin the need to do more than hear God's Word. They connect James's letter to his half-brother and Lord's Sermon on the Mount, noticing if we want the blessings Jesus began His sermon with, we have to follow the instruction to do what He says with which He ended the sermon.Read the written devo that goes along with this episode by clicking here.    Let us know what you are learning or any questions you have. Email us at TextTalk@ChristiansMeetHere.org.    Join the Facebook community and join the conversation by clicking here. We'd love to meet you. Be a guest among the Christians who meet on Livingston Avenue. Click here to find out more. Michael Eldridge sang all four parts of our theme song. Find more from him by clicking here.   Thanks for talking about the text with us today.________________________________________________If the hyperlinks do not work, copy the following addresses and paste them into the URL bar of your web browser: Daily Written Devo: https://readthebiblemakedisciples.wordpress.com/?p=10397The Christians Who Meet on Livingston Avenue: http://www.christiansmeethere.org/Facebook Page: https://www.facebook.com/TalkAboutTheTextFacebook Group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/texttalkMichael Eldridge: https://acapeldridge.com/ 

Food For Your Soul
140) Wisdom Wrapped in Folly - James 3:9-16

Food For Your Soul

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 2, 2022 6:00


Have you ever had someone correct you, trying to deliver their wisdom to you, but doing it in an unwise way- -How about you- How wise is your approach to imparting wisdom to others-

A Heavy Metal Podcast - The Mighty Decibel
LUCIFER'S FALL - In 40 Minutes

A Heavy Metal Podcast - The Mighty Decibel

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 2, 2022 42:59


We here at The Mighty Decibel strive to introduce new music to the masses via our In 40 Minutes curated playlists. And this edition we have a band that likely few have heard of ... Lucifer's Fall. By way of Down Under, Lucifer's Fall have three full lengths and numerous EPs/splits/live recordings of trad/doom to their credit, but it is the quality of the material that stands out here. That and the amazing vocals of Deceiver who pontificates up a storm, really setting this band apart. Amazingly underrated, it's time for you to enter the Gates of Hell and sacrifice your souls to some righteous doom'n'roll. Fuck you, they're Lucifer's Fall!! Side One Lucifer's Fall (2014) (0:00) The Summoning II : Cursed and Damned (2016) (3:57) (Fuck You) We're Lucifer's Fall (7:07) Sacrifice Lucifer's Fall/Acolytes of Moros (2019) (9:47) Death of the Mother Cardinal's Folly/Lucifer's Folly (2019) (15:03) Die Witch Die! Side 2 (20:04) The Gates of Hell From The Deep (2021) (24:42) Trident Steel (29:44) Doom'N'Roll (32:27) Reverend Revenant Graveyard Rites (2022) (37:03) The Asylum/Graveyard Rising

Gavin J. Gallagher
119. Saudi Arabia's New Megacity Project - the Future or Folly?

Gavin J. Gallagher

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 1, 2022 57:30


This week I discuss The Line which was recently announced by Neom in Saudi Arabia.  This megacity project promises to be totally sustainable and zero carbon emissions, but is it realistic or commercial viable?  Lets take a look - I hope you enjoy! The Line: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0kz5vEqdaSc Neom website: https://www.neom.com/en-us  Neom YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/NEOMChannel  Take the Property Investor Readiness Test: https://eliteproperty.scoreapp.com/ The Elite Property Accelerator: https://www.elitepropertyaccelerator.com/ Learn more about Gavin: https://www.gavinjgallagher.com Gavin also has a YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/gavinjgallagher?sub_confirmation=1 Email the show: podcast@behindthefacadepodcast.com  Connect on social media: @gavinjgallagher

Pratt on Texas
Episode 3002: Year of the Latina Republican may also be year of the Dem bigots | Houston’s guns for gift cards folly – Pratt on Texas 8/1/2022

Pratt on Texas

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 1, 2022 42:20


The news of Texas covered today includes:Our Lone Star story of the day: Is 2022 the Year of the Latina Republican? Maybe, maybe not but it is a year that reminds that the Democratic Party and other Leftists have no place in their worldview for minorities who have viewpoints different from those sanctioned by the Left. Dems show they are fundamentally still the party of Jim Crow, the KKK, slavery, whites-only primaries, and general bigotry – but it's mostly minority Dems doing so!Our Lone Star story of the day is sponsored by Allied Compliance Services providing the best service in DOT, business and personal drug and alcohol testing since 1995.Houston's guns for gift cards (it isn't a “buyback!”) event this weekend was huge but it likely violated laws, made it harder to prosecute criminals, and spoiled witness testimony. I wonder how many gun thefts it sparked and how many criminals it aided.A long Texas Tribune story on Abbott and the border is getting much republication but it's an empty piece and not worth your time.And, other news of Texas.Listen on the radio, or station stream, at 5pm Central. Click for our affiliates.www.PrattonTexas.com

Grace and Truth Church
"The Folly of Materialism"

Grace and Truth Church

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 1, 2022 40:00


-The Folly of Materialism- - Bob Gianserra - Luke 12-13-34

Keystone Bible Church
Genesis 45:16-46:30 - Seeing Folly In Wisdom - Anthony DeRosse

Keystone Bible Church

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 31, 2022 60:37


Agape Church Podcast
The Wisdom of Speaking Rightly - Wisdom & Folly, Part 19

Agape Church Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 31, 2022 27:31


Proverbs 15:7 (ESV) 1 A soft answer turns away wrath, but a harsh word stirs up anger. 2 The tongue of the wise commends knowledge, but the mouths of fools pour out folly. 4 A gentle tongue is a tree of life, but perverseness in it breaks the spirit. 7 The lips of the wise spread knowledge; not so the hearts of fools.

CECBG Sermons
Rich Fools and Holy Folly - Deacon Ken - July 31st, 2022

CECBG Sermons

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 31, 2022 17:06


Nat 1 Adventures
Dungeon Clash and Crawl 4! Parts 1 and 2!

Nat 1 Adventures

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 30, 2022 211:12


With the debut of 2 new adventurers, we get to listen to our party help Kal and Folly with their first assignment as Ollie's new apprentices! @NatoneAdventures | Linktree --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/raspyscreams/message

Free Range Church Podcast
The Folly Of...Indignation | Luke 13

Free Range Church Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 29, 2022 19:08


Folly: tragically foolish actions or conductWe often find ourselves engaging in folly, especially in our spiritual lives, even though we may not ever recognize it as rising to the level of tragically foolish. But what are some of the most common ways we fall into those follies? Join Benson & Sean as we explore five ways we fall short, and how we can overcome them.

All My Fantasy Children
180. The Pillar of Folly: Pondering the Orb (Featuring Jay Dragon)

All My Fantasy Children

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 29, 2022 54:04


Welcome, Junior Wizards! This week, we welcome the legendary game designer Jay Dragon to All My Fantasy Children! Listen as we create the legend of The Pillar of Folly, a spire within the sea that holds a grand secret. But what about the Orb? Yes, what about it? Can it be pondered!? Listen and find out!

Knowledge on the Deeper Side
Overcoming Folly - 67 - Life Before the Snake

Knowledge on the Deeper Side

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 29, 2022 101:41


Overcoming Folly - Part 67 "Life Before the Snake" With Rabbi Ari Sollish (Recorded live at the Intown Jewish Academy on July 24, 2022) So what was life like before the snake pestered Adam and Eve? Imagine a world of idyllic beauty, a place of physical and spiritual perfection. A world where people intuitively know what's right and what's wrong. A world in which lines are clearly defined and the mission is clear. Welcome to the Garden of Eden. And then everything fell apart... In this unforgettable session of Kabbalah & Coffee, we look at what went wrong that fateful Day 6 of creation. We learn why the very psyche of human beings changed forever, and how you and I can get back to that pre-snake reality -- and even higher.

Free Range Church Podcast
The Folly Of...Privilege - Romans 12

Free Range Church Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 28, 2022 15:10


Folly: tragically foolish actions or conductWe often find ourselves engaging in folly, especially in our spiritual lives, even though we may not ever recognize it as rising to the level of tragically foolish. But what are some of the most common ways we fall into those follies? Join Benson & Sean as we explore five ways we fall short, and how we can overcome them.

The Alan Cox Show
Brother Humper/ Golden Age Of Cocaine/ Kissing Makes Babies/ Eat Your Young/ Ghost Fiancee/ Wilhelmina's Pasta Lunch/ Hermits Gonna Hermit/ Dollar Lieutenant/ Prolapse Nation/ Too Many Kidneys/ Charlie Wilson Birthday Party/ Folly Olly/ Just Be, Cuz

The Alan Cox Show

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 28, 2022 179:16


Free Range Church Podcast
The Folly Of...Being Right | 1 Corinthians 13

Free Range Church Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 27, 2022 11:01


Folly: tragically foolish actions or conductWe often find ourselves engaging in folly, especially in our spiritual lives, even though we may not ever recognize it as rising to the level of tragically foolish. But what are some of the most common ways we fall into those follies? Join Benson & Sean as we explore five ways we fall short, and how we can overcome them.

Free Range Church Podcast
The Folly Of...Revenge - Romans 12

Free Range Church Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 26, 2022 15:08


Folly: tragically foolish actions or conductWe often find ourselves engaging in folly, especially in our spiritual lives, even though we may not ever recognize it as rising to the level of tragically foolish. But what are some of the most common ways we fall into those follies? Join Benson & Sean as we explore five ways we fall short, and how we can overcome them.

Tales from the Waystone
TftWS - The Interlude We Became Ep. 5 - The Inherent Folly of Splitting the Party, OR That's [Forking] Teamwork!

Tales from the Waystone

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 26, 2022 85:47


Welcome to The Interlude We Became, Episode 5, where we will be discussing chapters eleven through thirteen of N. K. Jemisin's The City We Became. As usual, we'll be chatting about geeky stuff throughout. We're still taking care to discuss themes rather than doing a blow-by-blow, and we hope you like that style as much as we do! Wanna chat with us? Check out our Discord: https://discord.gg/9KMGFN6u2Y As promised, here's the link to the article about Guastavino Tiles: https://www.architecturaldigest.com/gallery/guastavino-tile-arches Content Warning - The City We Became is an excellent books, but it discusses heavy topics and themes including racism, homophobia, poverty, etc. If that's too much for you, we understand if you nope out on this little series. We'll return to The Wise Man's Fear near the end of August 2022. We'd love your feedback on how we're doing! Please leave us a review and/or if you have a story about New York you'd like to share with us, we're all ears. Who knows, we might read it on the podcast. We

Free Range Church Podcast
The Folly Of...Bitterness | Luke 6

Free Range Church Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 25, 2022 11:26


Folly: tragically foolish actions or conductWe often find ourselves engaging in folly, especially in our spiritual lives, even though we may not ever recognize it as rising to the level of tragically foolish. But what are some of the most common ways we fall into those follies? Join Benson & Sean as we explore five ways we fall short, and how we can overcome them.

ESV: Straight through the Bible
July 25: Ecclesiastes 5–8

ESV: Straight through the Bible

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 25, 2022 10:19


Ecclesiastes 5–8 Ecclesiastes 5–8 (Listen) Fear God 5 Guard your steps when you go to the house of God. To draw near to listen is better than to offer the sacrifice of fools, for they do not know that they are doing evil. 2 1 Be not rash with your mouth, nor let your heart be hasty to utter a word before God, for God is in heaven and you are on earth. Therefore let your words be few. 3 For a dream comes with much business, and a fool's voice with many words. 4 When you vow a vow to God, do not delay paying it, for he has no pleasure in fools. Pay what you vow. 5 It is better that you should not vow than that you should vow and not pay. 6 Let not your mouth lead you2 into sin, and do not say before the messenger3 that it was a mistake. Why should God be angry at your voice and destroy the work of your hands? 7 For when dreams increase and words grow many, there is vanity;4 but5 God is the one you must fear. The Vanity of Wealth and Honor 8 If you see in a province the oppression of the poor and the violation of justice and righteousness, do not be amazed at the matter, for the high official is watched by a higher, and there are yet higher ones over them. 9 But this is gain for a land in every way: a king committed to cultivated fields.6 10 He who loves money will not be satisfied with money, nor he who loves wealth with his income; this also is vanity. 11 When goods increase, they increase who eat them, and what advantage has their owner but to see them with his eyes? 12 Sweet is the sleep of a laborer, whether he eats little or much, but the full stomach of the rich will not let him sleep. 13 There is a grievous evil that I have seen under the sun: riches were kept by their owner to his hurt, 14 and those riches were lost in a bad venture. And he is father of a son, but he has nothing in his hand. 15 As he came from his mother's womb he shall go again, naked as he came, and shall take nothing for his toil that he may carry away in his hand. 16 This also is a grievous evil: just as he came, so shall he go, and what gain is there to him who toils for the wind? 17 Moreover, all his days he eats in darkness in much vexation and sickness and anger. 18 Behold, what I have seen to be good and fitting is to eat and drink and find enjoyment7 in all the toil with which one toils under the sun the few days of his life that God has given him, for this is his lot. 19 Everyone also to whom God has given wealth and possessions and power to enjoy them, and to accept his lot and rejoice in his toil—this is the gift of God. 20 For he will not much remember the days of his life because God keeps him occupied with joy in his heart. 6 There is an evil that I have seen under the sun, and it lies heavy on mankind: 2 a man to whom God gives wealth, possessions, and honor, so that he lacks nothing of all that he desires, yet God does not give him power to enjoy them, but a stranger enjoys them. This is vanity;8 it is a grievous evil. 3 If a man fathers a hundred children and lives many years, so that the days of his years are many, but his soul is not satisfied with life's good things, and he also has no burial, I say that a stillborn child is better off than he. 4 For it comes in vanity and goes in darkness, and in darkness its name is covered. 5 Moreover, it has not seen the sun or known anything, yet it finds rest rather than he. 6 Even though he should live a thousand years twice over, yet enjoy9 no good—do not all go to the one place? 7 All the toil of man is for his mouth, yet his appetite is not satisfied.10 8 For what advantage has the wise man over the fool? And what does the poor man have who knows how to conduct himself before the living? 9 Better is the sight of the eyes than the wandering of the appetite: this also is vanity and a striving after wind. 10 Whatever has come to be has already been named, and it is known what man is, and that he is not able to dispute with one stronger than he. 11 The more words, the more vanity, and what is the advantage to man? 12 For who knows what is good for man while he lives the few days of his vain11 life, which he passes like a shadow? For who can tell man what will be after him under the sun? The Contrast of Wisdom and Folly 7   A good name is better than precious ointment,    and the day of death than the day of birth.2   It is better to go to the house of mourning    than to go to the house of feasting,  for this is the end of all mankind,    and the living will lay it to heart.3   Sorrow is better than laughter,    for by sadness of face the heart is made glad.4   The heart of the wise is in the house of mourning,    but the heart of fools is in the house of mirth.5   It is better for a man to hear the rebuke of the wise    than to hear the song of fools.6   For as the crackling of thorns under a pot,    so is the laughter of the fools;    this also is vanity.127   Surely oppression drives the wise into madness,    and a bribe corrupts the heart.8   Better is the end of a thing than its beginning,    and the patient in spirit is better than the proud in spirit.9   Be not quick in your spirit to become angry,    for anger lodges in the heart13 of fools.10   Say not, “Why were the former days better than these?”    For it is not from wisdom that you ask this.11   Wisdom is good with an inheritance,    an advantage to those who see the sun.12   For the protection of wisdom is like the protection of money,    and the advantage of knowledge is that wisdom preserves the life of him who has it.13   Consider the work of God:    who can make straight what he has made crooked? 14 In the day of prosperity be joyful, and in the day of adversity consider: God has made the one as well as the other, so that man may not find out anything that will be after him. 15 In my vain14 life I have seen everything. There is a righteous man who perishes in his righteousness, and there is a wicked man who prolongs his life in his evildoing. 16 Be not overly righteous, and do not make yourself too wise. Why should you destroy yourself? 17 Be not overly wicked, neither be a fool. Why should you die before your time? 18 It is good that you should take hold of this, and from that withhold not your hand, for the one who fears God shall come out from both of them. 19 Wisdom gives strength to the wise man more than ten rulers who are in a city. 20 Surely there is not a righteous man on earth who does good and never sins. 21 Do not take to heart all the things that people say, lest you hear your servant cursing you. 22 Your heart knows that many times you yourself have cursed others. 23 All this I have tested by wisdom. I said, “I will be wise,” but it was far from me. 24 That which has been is far off, and deep, very deep; who can find it out? 25 I turned my heart to know and to search out and to seek wisdom and the scheme of things, and to know the wickedness of folly and the foolishness that is madness. 26 And I find something more bitter than death: the woman whose heart is snares and nets, and whose hands are fetters. He who pleases God escapes her, but the sinner is taken by her. 27 Behold, this is what I found, says the Preacher, while adding one thing to another to find the scheme of things—28 which my soul has sought repeatedly, but I have not found. One man among a thousand I found, but a woman among all these I have not found. 29 See, this alone I found, that God made man upright, but they have sought out many schemes. Keep the King's Command 8   Who is like the wise?    And who knows the interpretation of a thing?  A man's wisdom makes his face shine,    and the hardness of his face is changed. 2 I say:15 Keep the king's command, because of God's oath to him.16 3 Be not hasty to go from his presence. Do not take your stand in an evil cause, for he does whatever he pleases. 4 For the word of the king is supreme, and who may say to him, “What are you doing?” 5 Whoever keeps a command will know no evil thing, and the wise heart will know the proper time and the just way.17 6 For there is a time and a way for everything, although man's trouble18 lies heavy on him. 7 For he does not know what is to be, for who can tell him how it will be? 8 No man has power to retain the spirit, or power over the day of death. There is no discharge from war, nor will wickedness deliver those who are given to it. 9 All this I observed while applying my heart to all that is done under the sun, when man had power over man to his hurt. Those Who Fear God Will Do Well 10 Then I saw the wicked buried. They used to go in and out of the holy place and were praised19 in the city where they had done such things. This also is vanity.20 11 Because the sentence against an evil deed is not executed speedily, the heart of the children of man is fully set to do evil. 12 Though a sinner does evil a hundred times and prolongs his life, yet I know that it will be well with those who fear God, because they fear before him. 13 But it will not be well with the wicked, neither will he prolong his days like a shadow, because he does not fear before God. Man Cannot Know God's Ways 14 There is a vanity that takes place on earth, that there are righteous people to whom it happens according to the deeds of the wicked, and there are wicked people to whom it happens according to the deeds of the righteous. I said that this also is vanity. 15 And I commend joy, for man has nothing better under the sun but to eat and drink and be joyful, for this will go with him in his toil through the days of his life that God has given him under the sun. 16 When I applied my heart to know wisdom, and to see the business that is done on earth, how neither day nor night do one's eyes see sleep, 17 then I saw all the work of God, that man cannot find out the work that is done under the sun. However much man may toil in seeking, he will not find it out. Even though a wise man claims to know, he cannot find it out. Footnotes [1] 5:2 Ch 5:1 in Hebrew [2] 5:6 Hebrew your flesh [3] 5:6 Or angel [4] 5:7 The Hebrew term hebel can refer to a “vapor” or “mere breath”; also verse 10 (see note on 1:2) [5] 5:7 Or For when dreams and vanities increase, words also grow many; but [6] 5:9 The meaning of the Hebrew verse is uncertain [7] 5:18 Or and see good [8] 6:2 The Hebrew term hebel can refer to a “vapor” or “mere breath”; also verses 4, 9, 11 (see note on 1:2) [9] 6:6 Or see [10] 6:7 Hebrew filled [11] 6:12 The Hebrew term hebel can refer to a “vapor” or “mere breath” (see note on 1:2) [12] 7:6 The Hebrew term hebel can refer to a “vapor” or “mere breath” (see note on 1:2) [13] 7:9 Hebrew in the bosom [14] 7:15 The Hebrew term hebel can refer to a “vapor” or “mere breath” (see note on 1:2) [15] 8:2 Hebrew lacks say [16] 8:2 Or because of your oath to God [17] 8:5 Or and judgment [18] 8:6 Or evil [19] 8:10 Some Hebrew manuscripts, Septuagint, Vulgate; most Hebrew manuscripts forgotten [20] 8:10 The Hebrew term hebel can refer to a “vapor” or “mere breath”; also twice in verse 14 (see note on 1:2) (ESV)

Inquisikids Daily
What Is Seward's Folly?

Inquisikids Daily

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 25, 2022 5:29


What Is Seward's Folly? Join us today as we learn about something that looked to some a mistake, but turned out to be a great idea. Sources: https://www.american-historama.org/1866-1881-reconstruction-era/sewards-folly https://historyincharts.com/sewards-folly-the-history-of-the-alaska-purchase/ Send us listener mail! Send an audio message: anchor.fm/inquisikids-daily/message Send an email: podcast@inquisikids.com

The John Freakin’ Muir Pod
Folly and Molly Take on the Appalachian Trail

The John Freakin’ Muir Pod

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 25, 2022 74:53


Children's author Michelle "Two Ls" Adshead sits down with Doc to discuss the Appalachian Trail and its impact on her life. She covers a lot of ground in the episode, including imaginary plywood, chainsaws on the trail, our primal roots, the importance of the Oxford comma, and the adventures of a couple foxes on the AT. --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/johnfreakinmuir/support

Union Church San Clemente
Two Ways To Live - Part 1: The Way Of Folly (10:30am)

Union Church San Clemente

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 24, 2022 59:20


Bedrock Church Roanoke
Wisdom and Folly - Legacy

Bedrock Church Roanoke

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 24, 2022 40:40


Thank you for joining us as we continue in our series of Wisdom and Folly. If you have any questions please feel free to email us at info@bedrockroanoke.com

Agape Church Podcast
The Wisdom of Peacemaking - Wisdom & Folly, Part 18

Agape Church Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 24, 2022 29:45


Proverbs 29:8 (ESV) | 8 Scoffers set a city aflame, but the wise turn away wrath.

Sermons
The Folly of Trusting in Wealth | Psalm 49

Sermons

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 24, 2022


Discussion QuestionsRead Psalm 49 together out loud and pray for the Holy Spirit to lead and guide the discussion. Good or bad, in what ways has your upbringing shaped your views and beliefs on wealth?In what areas of your life are you tempted to put your trust in wealth as the source of your security? Mathew 6:24 tells us that we cannot serve both God and money. Do you find yourself wrestling to serve two masters? Through Jesus we have the promise of an imperishable inheritance. How does this truth help us frame our relationship with wealth?Share ways the Holy Spirit is leading you to put money in its place (e.g. tithe, share, margin, save, simplify). Prayer PointsDuring your own prayer time, ask the Lord to reveal and forgive you in areas of your life where you've been serving two masters.In your group, pray that we would each have a Christ centered, eternal perspective that would help us have a right relationship with money. Pray that the Holy Spirit would lead Sound City to be a generous church.

Village 7 Sermon Podcast
July 24 - The Competing Calls of Wisdom and Folly - Proverbs 9:1-18

Village 7 Sermon Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 24, 2022 40:53


July 24 - The Competing Calls of Wisdom and Folly - Proverbs 9:1-18 Chris Hodge

Be With Me: 7 Minutes of Biblical Wonder
A SECRET revealed With HELP(er) S10e8 1cor2:10

Be With Me: 7 Minutes of Biblical Wonder

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 22, 2022 7:51


God gave you the gift of THOUGHT.  He's gonna need it for you to have a relationship with Him.  There is only one problem: His thoughts are so big and wonderful we have cannot understand them. We have already called them STUPID and FOLLY.  There is this gap.So we are gonna need a communicator.  A Helper.  We need someone to go to heaven, understand the thoughts of God and then bring those thoughts into our thoughts.  That, Ladies and Gentlemen is the SPIRIT.  The Spirit is the go between that helps us.  He is the Helper.  Then, we have a job to do with the tool of our thoughts.  We get to use it freely to decide, to yield, to have faith.  In the passage today belief means "to love the Lord," and "to understand the thoughts of God".  Listen 7 minutes as Paul makes this process prepared for eternity clear to the Corinthians.  Then subscribe at bewithme.us so he can make something else clear tomorrow.

The Ghosties Podcast
Riddick's Folly House

The Ghosties Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 22, 2022 54:47


In today's episode, we are talking about our most recent investigation of the Riddick's Folly House in Downtown Suffolk, VA! Information on the Riddick's Folly House: http://riddicksfolly.org/ If you have your own story to be shared on The Ghosties Podcast, email us @ theghostiespodcast@gmail.com You can also submit a story to us on our website @ https://theghostiespodcast.yolasite.com/ Connect with us on Social Media and never miss a thing! Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ghostiespodcast/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theghostiespodcast/?hl=en TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theghostiespodcast?lang=en Linktree: https://linktr.ee/theghostiespodcast To Book A Session with Christina: https://christinathemedium.com/ Christina's TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@christinathemedium?lang=en To Contact Christina: Email me @ christinatherainbowwarrior@gmail.com Missy's Scout & Cellar Link: https://scoutandcellar.com/?u=missystuprich --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/theghostiespodcast/support

Knowledge on the Deeper Side
Overcoming Folly - 66 - Holy Folly Batman

Knowledge on the Deeper Side

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 21, 2022 97:58


Overcoming Folly - Part 66 "Holy Folly Batman" With Rabbi Ari Sollish (Recorded live at the Intown Jewish Academy on July 17, 2022) There's something to be said about behavior that falls neatly inside the range of what's considered "normal." After all, the rational and logical approach certainly has its advantages. But it also has its limitations. See, there's a modality of living that defies the normal and the rational. Not that the person acts irrationally. No, they act in a superrational manner, not allowing natural, logical limitations to get in the way. This way of living higher was championed by kings, prophets, and mystics. In this epic session of Kabbalah & Coffee, we study Jewish mysticism and discover how to live life a little higher than the norm. This, my friends, is "Holy Folly."

ESV: Straight through the Bible
July 20: Proverbs 22–23

ESV: Straight through the Bible

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 20, 2022 6:00


Proverbs 22–23 Proverbs 22–23 (Listen) 22   A good name is to be chosen rather than great riches,    and favor is better than silver or gold.2   The rich and the poor meet together;    the LORD is the Maker of them all.3   The prudent sees danger and hides himself,    but the simple go on and suffer for it.4   The reward for humility and fear of the LORD    is riches and honor and life.15   Thorns and snares are in the way of the crooked;    whoever guards his soul will keep far from them.6   Train up a child in the way he should go;    even when he is old he will not depart from it.7   The rich rules over the poor,    and the borrower is the slave of the lender.8   Whoever sows injustice will reap calamity,    and the rod of his fury will fail.9   Whoever has a bountiful2 eye will be blessed,    for he shares his bread with the poor.10   Drive out a scoffer, and strife will go out,    and quarreling and abuse will cease.11   He who loves purity of heart,    and whose speech is gracious, will have the king as his friend.12   The eyes of the LORD keep watch over knowledge,    but he overthrows the words of the traitor.13   The sluggard says, “There is a lion outside!    I shall be killed in the streets!”14   The mouth of forbidden3 women is a deep pit;    he with whom the LORD is angry will fall into it.15   Folly is bound up in the heart of a child,    but the rod of discipline drives it far from him.16   Whoever oppresses the poor to increase his own wealth,    or gives to the rich, will only come to poverty. Words of the Wise 17   Incline your ear, and hear the words of the wise,    and apply your heart to my knowledge,18   for it will be pleasant if you keep them within you,    if all of them are ready on your lips.19   That your trust may be in the LORD,    I have made them known to you today, even to you.20   Have I not written for you thirty sayings    of counsel and knowledge,21   to make you know what is right and true,    that you may give a true answer to those who sent you? 22   Do not rob the poor, because he is poor,    or crush the afflicted at the gate,23   for the LORD will plead their cause    and rob of life those who rob them.24   Make no friendship with a man given to anger,    nor go with a wrathful man,25   lest you learn his ways    and entangle yourself in a snare.26   Be not one of those who give pledges,    who put up security for debts.27   If you have nothing with which to pay,    why should your bed be taken from under you?28   Do not move the ancient landmark    that your fathers have set.29   Do you see a man skillful in his work?    He will stand before kings;    he will not stand before obscure men. 23   When you sit down to eat with a ruler,    observe carefully what4 is before you,2   and put a knife to your throat    if you are given to appetite.3   Do not desire his delicacies,    for they are deceptive food.4   Do not toil to acquire wealth;    be discerning enough to desist.5   When your eyes light on it, it is gone,    for suddenly it sprouts wings,    flying like an eagle toward heaven.6   Do not eat the bread of a man who is stingy;5    do not desire his delicacies,7   for he is like one who is inwardly calculating.6    “Eat and drink!” he says to you,    but his heart is not with you.8   You will vomit up the morsels that you have eaten,    and waste your pleasant words.9   Do not speak in the hearing of a fool,    for he will despise the good sense of your words.10   Do not move an ancient landmark    or enter the fields of the fatherless,11   for their Redeemer is strong;    he will plead their cause against you.12   Apply your heart to instruction    and your ear to words of knowledge.13   Do not withhold discipline from a child;    if you strike him with a rod, he will not die.14   If you strike him with the rod,    you will save his soul from Sheol.15   My son, if your heart is wise,    my heart too will be glad.16   My inmost being7 will exult    when your lips speak what is right.17   Let not your heart envy sinners,    but continue in the fear of the LORD all the day.18   Surely there is a future,    and your hope will not be cut off. 19   Hear, my son, and be wise,    and direct your heart in the way.20   Be not among drunkards8    or among gluttonous eaters of meat,21   for the drunkard and the glutton will come to poverty,    and slumber will clothe them with rags. 22   Listen to your father who gave you life,    and do not despise your mother when she is old.23   Buy truth, and do not sell it;    buy wisdom, instruction, and understanding.24   The father of the righteous will greatly rejoice;    he who fathers a wise son will be glad in him.25   Let your father and mother be glad;    let her who bore you rejoice. 26   My son, give me your heart,    and let your eyes observe9 my ways.27   For a prostitute is a deep pit;    an adulteress10 is a narrow well.28   She lies in wait like a robber    and increases the traitors among mankind. 29   Who has woe? Who has sorrow?    Who has strife? Who has complaining?  Who has wounds without cause?    Who has redness of eyes?30   Those who tarry long over wine;    those who go to try mixed wine.31   Do not look at wine when it is red,    when it sparkles in the cup    and goes down smoothly.32   In the end it bites like a serpent    and stings like an adder.33   Your eyes will see strange things,    and your heart utter perverse things.34   You will be like one who lies down in the midst of the sea,    like one who lies on the top of a mast.1135   “They struck me,” you will say,12 “but I was not hurt;    they beat me, but I did not feel it.  When shall I awake?    I must have another drink.” Footnotes [1] 22:4 Or The reward for humility is the fear of the Lord, riches and honor and life [2] 22:9 Hebrew good [3] 22:14 Hebrew strange [4] 23:1 Or who [5] 23:6 Hebrew whose eye is evil [6] 23:7 Or for as he calculates in his soul, so is he [7] 23:16 Hebrew My kidneys [8] 23:20 Hebrew those who drink too much wine [9] 23:26 Or delight in [10] 23:27 Hebrew a foreign woman [11] 23:34 Or of the rigging [12] 23:35 Hebrew lacks you will say (ESV)

The Long View
Larry Siegel: ‘The Humblest Thing an Investor Can Do Is Buy Index Funds'

The Long View

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 19, 2022 48:24 Very Popular


Our guest this week is Larry Siegel. He is the Gary P. Brinson director of research at the CFA Institute Research Foundation. Prior to that, he was director of research for the Ford Foundation's investment division for 15 years. Siegel began his career at Ibbotson Associates in 1979. He specializes in asset management and investment consulting and has served on various boards as both an advisor and a director. He has also served on the editorial board of the Financial Analysts Journal and currently serves on the editorial board of The Journal of Portfolio Management and TheJournal of Investing. Siegel is a prolific writer and has authored several critically acclaimed books in recent years, including Unknown Knowns: On Economics, Investing, Progress, and Folly as well as Fewer, Richer, Greener: Prospects for Humanity in an Age of Abundance. He earned his Bachelor of Arts from the University of Chicago and his MBA in finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.BackgroundBioUnknown Knowns: On Economics, Investing, Progress, and Folly, by Laurence SiegelFewer, Richer, Greener: Prospects for Humanity in an Age of Abundance, by Laurence SiegelResearch"Lifetime Financial Advice: Human Capital, Asset Allocation, and Insurance," by Roger Ibbotson, Moshe Arye Milevsky, and Kevin Zhu, ResearchGate, January 2007.Popularity: A Bridge Between Classical and Behavioral Finance, by Roger Ibbotson, Thomas Idzorek, Paul Kaplan, and James Xiong, Jan. 15, 2019."Bursting the Bubble—Rationality in a Seemingly Irrational Market," by David F. DeRosa, SSRN, April 29, 2021."Equity Risk Premium Forum: Don't Bet Against a Bubble?," by Paul McCaffrey, CFA Institute, April 8, 2022.The Myth of Artificial Intelligence: Why Computers Can't Think the Way We Do, by Erik Larson, April 6, 2021."Value Investing: Robots Versus People," by Laurence Siegel, larrysiegel.org, June 30, 2017.Endowments and Investing Lessons"Don't Give Up the Ship: The Future of the Endowment Model," by Laurence Siegel, larrysiegel.org, April 7, 2021."Where's Tobin? Protecting Intergenerational Equity for Endowments: A New Benchmarking Approach," by M. Barton Waring and Laurence Siegel, larrysiegel.org, April 21, 2022."Debunking Nine and a Half Myths of Investing," by Laurence Siegel, larrysiegel.org, March 12, 2020.Inflation"Protecting Portfolios Against Inflation," by Eugene Podkaminer, Wylie Tollette, and Laurence Siegel, The Journal of Investing, April 2022."The Novelty of the Coronavirus: What It Means for Markets," by Laurence Siegel, larrysiegel.com, April 1, 2020."Will Demographic Trends Drive Higher Inflation and Interest Rates?" by Laurence Siegel, larrysiegel.com, Feb. 10, 2021.Other"Cliff Asness: Value Stocks Still Look Like a Bargain," The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, May 31, 2022."Tom Idzorek: Exploring the Role of Human and Financial Capital in Retirement Planning," The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, June 7, 2022.TranscriptJeff Ptak: Hi, and welcome to The Long View. I'm Jeff Ptak, chief ratings officer for Morningstar Research Services.Christine Benz: And I'm Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning for Morningstar.Ptak: Our guest this week is Larry Siegel. Larry is the Gary P. Brinson director of research at the CFA Institute Research Foundation. Prior to that, he was director of research at the Ford Foundation's investment division for 15 years. Larry began his career at Ibbotson Associates in 1979. He specializes in asset management and investment consulting and has served on various boards as both an advisor and a director. He has also served on the editorial board of the Financial Analysts Journal and currently serves on the editorial board of The Journal of Portfolio Management and The Journal of Investing. Larry is a prolific writer and has authored several critically acclaimed books in recent years, including Unknown Knowns: On Economics, Investing, Progress, and Folly as well as Fewer, Richer, Greener: Prospects for Humanity in an Age of Abundance. Larry earned his Bachelor of Arts from the University of Chicago and his MBA in finance at the University of Chicago, Booth School of Business.Larry, welcome to The Long View.Laurence Siegel: Thank you.Ptak: Thank you so much for joining us. We're really excited to chat with you. I wanted to start with your early career. You worked for Roger Ibbotson early in your career. In fact, you were Ibbotson's first employee if I'm not mistaken. Talk about Roger's influence on you and more broadly, the impact he has had on our understanding of markets and investing.Siegel: Roger was not only my first boss, he was my first finance professor at the University of Chicago. So, I got fed the Ibbotson—and to give credit where it's due, to Sinquefield—view of the markets early. I was 21 years old. And I would describe that view as that asset classes are what's important; that security, individual securities, are best viewed as components of asset classes, although when you get involved in the business, you realize that you have to understand the market at the security level, too; and that long-term performance is very strongly in favor of equities. So, at the time, pension funds, who were the main customers for Ibbotson Associates' work, had relatively little in equities, and one of our missions was to improve the returns of those funds and thus for the sponsors and the employees by holding more equities. This was in the early ‘80s. I was hired in 1979. So, you can see that was a good strategy.Benz: So, sticking with your background in your early career, you think young professionals should have a grounding in the humanities and liberal arts. Why is that?Siegel: Well, not every single one needs to, but the ones who are going to rise to the top in the business need a grounding in the common cultural heritage of the human race, and that's given by humanities and social sciences that the liberal arts broadly construed. Investors invest in businesses or governments, but mostly businesses, and businesses exist to serve the needs and wants of people, an ever-changing group of people around the world. So, without a deep understanding of human affairs—in other words, of the why of business—young investment professionals are likely to fall into some intellectual traps: short-termism, geographically narrow thinking, where you only think about your own country, and a bunch of other well-documented behavioral biases—you shouldn't do that.Ptak: Maybe a dumb question to follow up on that: Why doesn't the market do a better job of creating incentives to ensure that younger professionals—let's talk about those who are heading into finance and in investing in particular—that they have a liberal arts background and they're able to better avoid some of those traps? Why haven't those incentives really taken shape and why is it still so typical to see this procession of MBAs and people with the traditional finance background dominating finance and investing?Siegel: Well, if you're as old as me, I'm 68, you have observed that it used to. The market, when I was getting out of school, was in a very different position. There weren't many MBAs. It was an unpopular decision to go to business school. And most of the people who were accepted in business school had an Ivy Plus background where a liberal arts education is required in order to graduate. By Ivy Plus I mean the University of Chicago, Stanford, Northwestern, places like that, plus the Ivy League. So, this staffed the investment business with a fairly broadly educated group of people. What happened in the next 40 years is that business got too big. And the MBA programs mushroomed from a little specialty of a dozen or two dozen schools to something that everybody felt they had to get in order to get a job. So, it just became more of a trade school degree rather than an academic degree. And I'm sorry if I'm offending anybody here, but that's the way I see it. And the investment business became more of a trade. So, the market became less efficient, I think, because it just got so big that it had to pull in a lot of different people, including people who had specialized early because they wanted to be in finance because they were seeing people in finance made a lot of money.Benz: Speaking of specialization, do you think that the only way to truly specialize is to have had a generalist humanistic education first? In other words, are the most successful specialists people who trained as generalists first and is there any evidence for this?Siegel: I think there is among CEOs and maybe CIOs, chief investment officers. The greatest businesspeople in the world have generally had a pretty broad background and a lot of them started, the legend is in the mail room, but they may have started in engineering, accounting. They may have started in sales. Whatever they did, they found their way to the investment business through a kind of evolution over time. An organization needs foxes and hedgehogs. Isaiah Berlin, drawing on an ancient Greek story, said that there are two kinds of people of foxes who know a little about everything and hedgehogs who no one big thing. Einstein, for example, was a hedgehog. He really only cared about physics, and he was very productive. We would have a very different world without him. I am suggesting that you're better off looking for foxes, but you also want to have a few Einsteins in there, and an organization that consists entirely of foxes would be very unfocused and would be more like a college dorm than a business.Ptak: Wanted to shift and talk about something that seems like it's been an awfully short supply lately, which is optimism. You wrote a book called Fewer, Richer, Greener, evincing optimism about the global economy and humanity in general. Have you always been an optimistic person? Or has it gone back and forth or been situation dependent?Siegel: I've always been an optimistic person in terms of my intrinsic biases. I do know enough economic history and regular history to know that living conditions have improved so much in the last 250 years, and actually in the last 50, that you'd be kind of crazy to deny that things have improved. This is a bad year and a bad decade. And it's very easy to become pessimistic when you read the news or check the stock market or look at the world situation with wars and so forth. But underneath the surface of all this chaos and negativity, technology is continuing to advance at an amazing rate of speed. And what we really rely on for economic growth is improvements in technology, where I use the word technology to mean it very broadly. Technology is not just the gadgets or computing power. It's biology. It's social technology—my ability to gather together a bunch of people in a Zoom meeting from all over the world and have a board meeting. And as this technology has grown in the broad sense, we have made our lives much easier; work has gotten easier. We do less of it. The 80-hour work week has now become a specialty of doctors, lawyers, and CEOs. Coal miners—my father-in-law was a coal miner and he worked 80 hours a week in a coal mine when they let him. He would have preferred to work 40, but he needed the money. So, we have an economy in which we produce an awful lot without doing all that much, frankly. We have probably the easiest lives of any population that's ever existed.Benz: Optimism seems like one of those secret weapons in investing, in finance in that if you're optimistic, you're more likely to stick with it, stick with your plan, and markets have tended to reward people who have stuck with it over the longer term. But it's hard to be optimistic about the long term given how unknowable things are. So, is the equity-risk premium compensation for subjecting ourselves to that unknowability?Siegel: Yes. There are two kinds of risks. One is fluctuations in asset prices. We all know what that is. The market just went down 20% or 25%, and we're feeling it. And we might forget this, but it went down 34% in a month in the spring of 2020, which is a profound dislocation in the markets. And a few months later, we forgot it. The other kind of risk is actually more profound, and it's the possibility that our general expectations for assets are wrong. And if you look back, equities have returned about real 7%, 7% plus inflation. Going forward, it's pretty unlikely that they're going to do that over the next 20 or 30 years just because of the high prices. Even if economic growth were as rapid in the future as it was in the past, you want to pay less rather than more for the stocks. So, right now, they're selling at a premium to their historical average. That conventional asset-allocation input of equities generate 6.7% or 7% real is almost certainly too optimistic, and we've got to do what Jack Bogle said, which is budget for it. We can't all earn alpha and earn a higher return, because the net alpha in the market is 0, so we would all be trying to take it away from somebody else. We have to budget for lower returns.When you look at the bond market, it's even worse. Bonds seem to be priced to yield about real 0%  to real 1%. That's much lower than the historical average, about half the historical average.Ptak: You got that right. It looks like real yields across the yield curve 49 to 99 basis points as of yesterday, which would be July 11, so a pretty paltry real yield. I did want to, if I may, stick with the general topic of optimism and its nexus with investing, talk about that in the context of value investing. I sometimes wonder if value investing pays off because it's so repulsive over long stretches that it's almost impossible to be optimistic. That does, though, raise questions about the implications for its practical usability. For instance, if investors are likely to give up on it because they do find it so repulsive when it underperforms growth as it had done until relatively recently, they might miss out on some of that payoff, which can come in bunches. Or do you think that's off base? Do you think that value investing really is usable, you just have to stick with it long enough?Siegel: I think that value investing is usable. But you shouldn't concentrate your whole portfolio in it. What we've seen is that the pendulum has swung between value and growth in very long cycles and large cycles where value does much better or much worse for the entire time that data are available. Fama and French did this back to 1927 and you get these five- to 15-year swings, which is so long that people give up on either value or growth at exactly the wrong time. So, in 2007, value had outperformed massively, and it was a great time to buy growth stocks because we were just about to enter not a tech bubble but a period of tech innovation that produced huge returns for a decade and a half. Anybody who went against the grain, anybody who went against the tide and overweighted growth stocks did much better than the market from 2007 until a year or two ago. Now people are saying, only growth works, so value is disgusting. And the more disgusted you are, the more likely it is to work. I would overweight value right now, but not all the time.Benz: I wanted to ask about intuition. It's something that tends to be greatly valued in everyday life, but it can lead us astray when it comes to investing. For example, in March 2020, which you referenced earlier, few of us expected the great snap back in the markets because intuitively we knew the pandemic would be bad for humanity. Do you think intuition was a better model for investing before markets became so efficient or has it never really worked?Siegel: Well, informed intuition, if you've spent a lifetime in, let's say, engineering and you know something about the way that computers are put together or the internet is put together or something, you might have had the intuition that this was going to be a profound change in the way everybody did everything and you bought those stocks. But the problem is that most people who bought the stocks in the first tech wave, in the 1990s, bought them without knowing anything about the individual companies. They were right about the technology; they were wrong about the companies. So, you would now have a portfolio of AltaVista and Netscape and AOL and a bunch of other companies that had promised but they were just outcompeted by somebody else. So, I would rather hang my hat on analysis than intuition unless you just happen to be one of those people with special inside knowledge but that is obtained legally. But most people who think they have inside knowledge don't. So, I would try to avoid relying on intuition too much.Ptak: Wanted to shift and talk about your role at the CFA Institute. You have a lot of experience assessing research proposals in that role. What are the best pieces of research have in common based on your experience?Siegel: Well, they draw heavily on theory to make practical recommendations that can be implemented in the short to medium term. And going back to Roger Ibbotson, we published a piece in 2007 on lifetime financial advice that came from Roger with several colleagues. We are about to publish, but have not yet received the manuscript, the second installment of that from Paul Kaplan, Tom Idzorek, and a third author whose name I forget, and that will come out later this year or early next year. So, even though they're 15 years apart, the Ibbotson people have an integrated theory of investing insurance, annuities—all these different tools in order to provide people with a lifetime income that's secure and yet has the room for adding value through either asset allocation or security selection alpha. So, that's the kind of research I like most. We sometimes have also done pieces that step outside of the box of the Financial Analysts Journal or the Journal of Portfolio Management -type of research and look at a broader set of issues—for example, geopolitics, demography. There was a beautiful piece by David DeRosa on bubbles. He's against them. I don't know how he can be for or against bubbles. Either bubbles are or bubbles are not. But he takes the position that what we think are bubbles are mostly rational responses to circumstances and then when the circumstances change, the bubble bursts. But it wasn't a bubble; it was rational at the time. I don't know that I buy that 100%, but it sure was interesting reading his logic because he expresses it so well. So, these are the kinds of research I enjoy the most.I've also done some of my own research here. I am compiling for the CFA Institute Research Foundation a book on the equity risk premium, which was a symposium of 11 fairly famous people—Marty Leibowitz, Rob Arnott, Cliff Asness and so forth—which I led. I'm not one of the famous people, but I know them all socially, so I was able to get them to come. And I edited it with a co-editor, Paul McCaffrey, who is producing a book on that as we speak. It could come out in the next month.Ptak: I did want to ask you about what's become the new rage in investing research and portfolio management, which is combining quantitative and human-driven decisions. If you had to draw up a CFA curricula for a bot, how would it differ for the current human-based curricula? And on the flip side, how do you think the current human curricula ought to be reshaped to account for the rise of things like machine learning? Is that something you've given any consideration?Siegel: A little bit. I'm writing a book review right now for Advisor Perspectives, which is an industry newsletter, a very good one. And the review is of a book by Erik Larson that's called The Myth of Artificial Intelligence. I'm giving it a good review, so you can see where I'm going to come out. I believe that machine learning is a real thing. Machines can be programmed to learn, and that's a valuable tool in investment management. But when you step beyond that to the idea of artificial general intelligence, I think it's an illusion caused by very fast computers, very big data and very clever programmers who want to create that illusion. So, we have had 300 million years of evolution—not as human beings obviously but as animals—to develop a set of connections in our brains that actually are intelligent. Yet intelligence in the sense that we are talking about now didn't really emerge until the last 200,000 years. So, it is rare. It is fragile. And we don't know what it is. It's like Justice Potter Stewart said about pornography: We don't know what it is, but we know it when we see it. And to imagine that we're, as human beings, of one level of intelligence, whatever we are, can build a machine in a few decades of those 200,000 years that's more intelligent than we are with all that evolutionary heritage is frankly ridiculous. These machines are going to do what we tell them to do. But if we tell them using instructions that are crafted well enough, it will give the illusion of being intelligent. When I don't know how something works, like everybody else, I tend to think it's magic. I'm driving and there are two or three cars lined up at a red light, it immediately turns green and makes the other traffic stop because it's a smart red light, and all it's doing is counting the number of cars that are waiting for it to turn and changes the cycle, changes the frequency, according to the traffic instead of operating on a fixed time cycle. But it looks like a pretty smart red light when you haven't encountered it before and you say “Gee, that's really amazing.” Well, I think that AI as we're experiencing it now is kind of the same as that. It's just a technology that other people understand because they developed it, but we don't because we don't have the knowledge and so we feel like it's magic or intelligence, whichever you want to call it.Benz: There's been a lot written about the glut of skilled, highly trained professionals in the investing field. Can you talk about the level of competition you see now versus what you saw earlier in your career?Siegel: The industry has become way too big. Every stockbroker has become a financial advisor. Ninety-six percent of them ought to tell people buy, hold, diversify, and rebalance and minimize taxes, and then they have to fill in that outline through implementation. In other words, somebody has to do it; their clients aren't qualified to do it. But they should mostly be telling people to buy index funds and to use premixed asset-allocation decisions that conform to what somebody at the headquarters has decided is optimal. To add value for an individual, what you really need to do is be more like a psychologist and a life counselor who says, “You have too much debt, you're not saving enough; you have too many houses; at some point your assets become a liability.” Or you don't have a house at all, you are a renter—you might want to consider a house as a hedge against inflation. But telling them which securities to buy or micromanaging the list of mutual funds, to me, is a fool's errand for most people.Inside the business, that's the public-facing side. Inside the business there are too many security analysts, too many asset allocators, too many broker/dealers. And I think that competition has become more and more people fighting over fewer and fewer real alpha opportunities, and that's why the competition feels so fierce. It used to be an easy business. And it's not easy anymore because the market is more efficient, I guess.Ptak: Wanted to shift gears and talk about asset allocation, specifically the 60/40 portfolio. And my question for you, which is a question I think many are asking, is the 60/40 debt. It's having one of its worst years ever. But the paradox is that yields are now, albeit they're still paltry, they're now a little bit higher and valuations are a tad lower, which you'd think would boost the 60/40's future prospects. What's your take on the 60/40, Larry?Siegel: I think that it's a pretty good consensus outcome of people buying what's available in the market. If you look at the supply of securities, it has to be somewhere around 60/40 because everybody holds it, and the supply and demand have to equilibrate in the long run. But why do issuers produce that ratio? I think that the underlying reason is that for a very long period of history, bonds were a very good investment. If you didn't have 40% in bonds, you wanted to, because they were producing high real returns. And that period is roughly 1981 to 2007. It's a long time. From 1940 to 1981, bonds did terribly because interest rates were going up and up and up, and we didn't have a lot of 60/40 portfolios, but what we had was mostly 0 or 100. Institutions bought fixed income to fund their pension plans. They bought fixed income to fund if there were insurance companies. The big money was in fixed income and equities were this gravy—you sold some stocks to some rich people. And over time as the stock market went up and the bond market didn't go up, you had greater interest in equities, and the consultants who emerged from this world of pension funds settled on 60/40 as a consensus. And so, you've got what I call the standard model. The allocators picked from a list of active managers in each asset class, usually buy way too many of them, didn't have access to index funds or didn't want to buy them. And so, they compared the performance of their active managers to benchmarks, fired the underperforming ones, gave more money to the outperforming ones, and since these things tend to run in cycles, generally underperform the market. They also had to have an overall asset-allocation policy where 50/50 was the tradition that they'd been coming from, but they moved it up to 60/40 because the stock market was beating the bond market and it just stayed there. Stocks are risky. So, 70/30 or 80/20 seemed like it was too volumed. We're all human, and we do what we see the person next to us doing. I think it's really just consensus-building, although there is a supply aspect to it. You have to buy what's out there. And if we all decided to increase our allocation to equities, we couldn't. But we would just be buying them from each other. This is a point Cliff Asness made. He can usually be counted on for very good thinking.Benz: Our research has found that fund investors tend to do a really poor job of utilizing so-called liquid alternative funds. If you take the illiquidity and gates away from alternatives, do you think they can still work for individual investors in the form of liquid alternatives?Siegel: Well, the term liquid alternatives has changed over time. When I started hearing about liquid alternatives in the early to mid-90s, it meant hedge funds and to some extent managed-futures funds because the stuff they were buying was liquid, and then the illiquid alternatives were venture capital and private equity. Over time, liquid alternatives have come to mean liquid to the investor. And when you securitize an alternative investment, you've removed—so that you can trade it like a stock—you've removed the one thing that has tended to give alternative investments better returns, which is the lockup. If you can lock up somebody's money for a long time, you can take risks that don't necessarily pay off in the short run, but that may pay off in the long run. If you take that away, I would rather just invest in liquid nonalternatives, stocks, bonds, and some real estate. Although some people call real estate an alternative. It's the oldest asset class, so I'm reluctant to put it in the alternatives bucket.Ptak: Wanted to shift and talk about endowments. You spent a good chunk of your career in the endowment world. And as you know, a lot of ink has been spilled concerning debates over the endowment model. Some decried it as costly and complex, others defend it as path-breaking. What are the lessons an advisor or an individual investor should take away from the success of the endowment approach? And conversely, what are the lessons they need to unlearn, so to speak?Siegel: I'll start with the last one because it's so easy. The lesson they need to unlearn is that if David Swensen can do it, so can I. He and the people at other big endowments and foundations have access to the best funds because they come to you, you don't have to go ferret them out. The best people they can afford to hire, outstanding analysts and other chief investment officers who can make millions. And if they do lose money, they have this capability of withstanding some pain. A foundation, in particular, which doesn't have professors to pay, or buildings to maintain, or students to give scholarships to, has to pay out 5% of whatever it has at the time, so if it loses some of the assets, their liabilities go down too in a one-to-one correspondence and so, at some level, they don't care. Of course, they do care because it's always better to have more money to give away than less. But the foundation isn't going to be destroyed by a 20% decline in the market.Endowments are a little trickier because the liabilities are not so flexible. If you start paying your professors less, they will just go to another place that doesn't pay less. Students will do the same thing. But these institutions also have a lot of reserve in their fundraising ability. An ordinary individual investor doesn't have any of this backstop. If I want to raise funds, I have to work harder. I'm already working as hard as I can. And I don't have the option to reduce my liabilities by saying I'm just not going to pay them. So, individuals have to be inherently more conservative. You get older, life becomes a race against diminishing capabilities and your risk level has to go down as you get older. So, there's a lifecycle effect that institutions don't experience. So, I would say that's the main lesson is, endowments and foundations have generally done well, but they have some structural advantages over individuals. Unless you have a rich uncle—a university has a rich uncle—which is the alumni and yet that's not an unlimited resource any more than your rich uncle is. But it is a backstop for bad performance.Benz: One investing paradox is that success demands humility, but humility is a tough sell. What's the humblest thing an investor can do to boost their odds of success while also attracting clients? Is it to have a long time horizon?Siegel: Well, the humblest thing an investor can do is buy index funds. It says to the client, I don't know what stocks are going to do best, but other people collectively as a market make pretty good decisions, so I'm just going to trust them to say the prices are roughly right. And when you buy an index fund, you're making a bet that the prices are roughly right. They're obviously not exactly right. In terms of having a long time horizon, it can be humility, or it could be hubris. I can claim to have a long time horizon, but I don't know what liabilities I'm going to face tomorrow, so I better have a short time horizon with some of my investments and I could also live 30 more years, so I need to have a long time horizon with other parts of my portfolio. But the time horizon issue I don't see so much as humility versus hubris, but it's a planning tool that a lot of people don't use effectively.Ptak: One of your more popular pieces of writing in recent years was an article you wrote on investing myths. If I'm not mistaken, I think you've updated it a few times to this point, the most recent being in 2020. Why'd you write it, and how would you change it if you were to update the piece yet again today?Siegel: I wrote it because somebody in Brazil paid me to come down there and give a talk on Siegel's Nine Myths of Investing. So, when that gave me an outline I had to fill in. Most of the myths have changed over time. I've updated it every two to five years. And what would I change now? Well, first of all, you'd have to go back and look at what the myths are. I don't really think I have time to go over all of them. But the one that I would change today is that stocks and bonds are always negatively correlated, so each is a good hedge against the other. It's not true. It runs in cycles. There was a period where they were positively correlated in the ‘90s and then before that at some other time, and all of a sudden, it's back. So, with stock market down, the bond market is also down, and people say, "Diversification doesn't work." Well, first of all, nobody told you to go out and buy the longest bond. Diversification within the bond market works in the sense of holding some less-volatile, shorter-term securities. They sacrifice some yield in order to get that safety. Secondly, stocks and bonds will again be uncorrelated or negatively correlated someday. But this is not that day. And there are other assets. The one that comes to mind is the original alternative investment: cash. Right now, you're losing money in cash in real terms, because inflation is so high. But, on average, over time cash has paid a percent or so over the inflation rate. And then the other one is real estate. I keep coming back to real estate because it has become the unloved stepchild in the investment world. And other than their house, nobody has any. The last time I heard somebody talking about real estate as an investment was probably in the decade of the 2000s, and probably it was going up a lot. Then there was a crash. And the crash stuck in people's minds while real estate itself turned around and went up again. And there may yet be another crash, but it's just another asset class that should probably be in your toolkit.Other myths—I kind of went out on a limb in the last version of that article and started talking more about social and political issues. One is that we can transition to entirely green energy without disrupting the entire world economy. We can't. We either have to transition slowly, which may not be good enough, but I actually happen to think it is, because energy transitions have taken a half century or so—wood, coal, coal to oil, oil to natural gas, and so forth—and the next transition is not going to be all solar and wind. Nuclear power is going to be a vital and probably the most important part of it. So, if the myth that you're subscribing to is the, let's call it the European version, although that's not quite fair because they have plenty of nuclear power in Europe. It's not going to happen, but we're going to need all the energy we've got, because the world is getting richer fast. Growth rates in China are down to 5%. That's still huge. Indonesia is higher than that, and it's a country of 300 million people that most Americans couldn't find on a map. The energy demands are going to be huge from all these different parts of the world that are growing and becoming middle class. And so that myth is something I spent a little time on in the article and I would write more about it next time.Benz: You more or less predicted the spate of inflation we would have before it happened. In fact, one of the myths you wrote about in 2020 was that the government could borrow all it wanted without sparking inflation. What did you see then and what do you think people should be monitoring to assess how long high inflation will persist into the future?Siegel: My forecast at the time was based on basic economic history from the 1700 and 1800s, which is that when the government borrows more money than it can pay back, it's going to pay it back anyway but in cheaper dollars. And the way that you get cheaper dollars is to have inflation. Inflation is a transfer of resources, of real resources, from savers who are bondholders and cash holders, to borrowers, which in this case is the government itself. So, it's tax. So, when you have a budget—that's how government budgets, it's out of balance by a lot for a long time— you're going to have a lot of inflation, because it's the only way the government is going to be able to make those payments on the bonds. I didn't see anything in the economy other than the budget deficits. And it was so early that you could say, I was wrong. There's not much difference between being a decade and a half early and being outright wrong. So, I'll say I was wrong.What I didn't see was the supply catastrophe that came with COVID and our response to COVID. So, when you get a supply shock like the one we've just been through, prices are going to rise, and you don't even need an unbalanced government budget, you don't need budget deficits for prices to rise when there are shortages of things because by ships not being able to dock and workers not coming to work, we just have never seen anything like this. And so, I think the inflation rate will come down from these astronomical rates to something more normal, 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%, but we're not going to go back to zero to 2, because governments have over-leveraged, and deleveraging is always inflationary.Ptak: What role do you think top-down macro should play in an allocation and investing process? Obviously, it's hard to correctly make a macro bet, though we've just talked about one you did correctly make, but it's even harder to translate that into a successful investment. So, should most people just avoid macro and diversify and call it a day?Siegel: If you mean macro bets to guide your general asset-allocation philosophy, I think you should. In other words, if you believe, as I do, that global economic growth, while slowing, is going to be very large in absolute terms for a very long time. In other words, the absolute terms meaning the number of overall dollars, or whatever your currency is, generated by the world economy that you want to hold equities because bonds don't give you a claim to that growth. And they give you a very indistinct claim I wouldn't bank on it. But international investors say that when a country is growing rapidly, the currency goes up, so you get a little bit of diversification that way. But equities are much more powerful, and international equities are frankly cheap relative to the United States. So, that's a macro bet, and I'm recommending it. But again, I recommended it for a long time. I thought the U.S. was expensive. It hasn't been cheap since the 2007-08-09 period. So, you should make an evaluation of those conditions and implement it through your portfolio.In general, most Americans suffer from home country bias because the U.S. is so big that you can get a pretty diversified portfolio with just the S&P 500 actually, because that's a lot of stocks, and those are all the big caps. If you lived in Belgium, you would not be under the illusion that Belgium was the whole world. It's just you can reach the border in an hour from anywhere in the country. So, you've known since you were a little kid that there's a big world out there. We Americans just don't have that intuition. So, that's why I'm saying that international is a macro bet that is reasonable to make. Now, if by macro bets you think that you act like a hedge fund and you think that the pound is going to crash, and that oil is going to go to $70 and then back to $110. No, individual investors should not do that.Benz: People aren't very good at respectfully disagreeing these days. You're someone who seems unafraid of having a fulsome debate. Besides stepping away from social media and the internet, what are some things we can do to exchange differing views without becoming polarized?Siegel: Well, if I knew I would run for President. People have become dug in—I don't like it at all. Spend a quarter of your reading time reading points of view that you know in advance you're going to disagree with, see how that person expresses themselves and what arguments they make and trying to take their side mentally while you're reading it. Consider maybe I'm wrong, maybe they're right. If I name some names, that would be too obvious where my biases are. But I would read the moderates on the other side, because the extremists are extremists, and they overstate everything. That's about all I can think of other than be nice. If the people you care about and generally respect have different views from you, ask yourself why. It's not because they're crazy or stupid or evil. It's because they've looked at the same data in the broad sense. They've looked at the same world and come up with different conclusions. Try to think about why that might happen, and then picture them doing that to you. That's about all I have to say about that.Ptak: Well, that's great advice and I think a great way to close this conversation, which we very much enjoyed, Larry. Thanks so much for your time and insights. We very much enjoyed having you on The Long View.Siegel: Well, thank you very much.Benz: Thanks so much, Larry.Ptak: Thanks for joining us on The Long View. If you could, please take a minute to subscribe to and rate the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.You can follow us on Twitter @Syouth1, which is, S-Y-O-U-T-H and the number 1.Benz: And @Christine_Benz.Ptak: George Castady is our engineer for the podcast and Kari Greczek produces the show notes each week.Finally, we'd love to get your feedback. If you have a comment or a guest idea, please email us at TheLongView@Morningstar.com. Until next time, thanks for joining us.(Disclaimer: This recording is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Opinions expressed are as of the date of recording. Such opinions are subject to change. The views and opinions of guests on this program are not necessarily those of Morningstar, Inc. and its affiliates. Morningstar and its affiliates are not affiliated with this guest or his or her business affiliates unless otherwise stated. Morningstar does not guarantee the accuracy, or the completeness of the data presented herein. Jeff Ptak is an employee of Morningstar Research Services LLC. Morningstar Research Services is a subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc. and is registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Morningstar Research Services shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from or related to the information, data analysis or opinions or their use. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All investments are subject to investment risk, including possible loss of principal. Individuals should seriously consider if an investment is suitable for them by referencing their own financial position, investment objectives and risk profile before making any investment decision.)

Daily Radio Bible Podcast
Journey - July 19th, 22

Daily Radio Bible Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 19, 2022 9:17


Follow our other podcasts at http://www.dailyradiobible.com Podcast music is provided by David Nevue, learn more about David at http://www.davidnevue.com  Partner with us to produce these podcasts by donating HERE. We are reading through he New Living Translation.  Follow Today's reading HERE: ___ Psalm 119:97-104   New Living Translation     Mem 97 Oh, how I love your instructions!     I think about them all day long. 98 Your commands make me wiser than my enemies,     for they are my constant guide. 99 Yes, I have more insight than my teachers,     for I am always thinking of your laws. 100 I am even wiser than my elders,     for I have kept your commandments. 101 I have refused to walk on any evil path,     so that I may remain obedient to your word. 102 I haven't turned away from your regulations,     for you have taught me well. 103 How sweet your words taste to me;     they are sweeter than honey. 104 Your commandments give me understanding;     no wonder I hate every false way of life. Read full chapter   Proverbs 9   New Living Translation     9 Wisdom has built her house;     she has carved its seven columns. 2 She has prepared a great banquet,     mixed the wines, and set the table. 3 She has sent her servants to invite everyone to come.     She calls out from the heights overlooking the city. 4 “Come in with me,” she urges the simple.     To those who lack good judgment, she says, 5 “Come, eat my food,     and drink the wine I have mixed. 6 Leave your simple ways behind, and begin to live;     learn to use good judgment.” 7 Anyone who rebukes a mocker will get an insult in return.     Anyone who corrects the wicked will get hurt. 8 So don't bother correcting mockers;     they will only hate you. But correct the wise,     and they will love you. 9 Instruct the wise,     and they will be even wiser. Teach the righteous,     and they will learn even more. 10 Fear of the Lord is the foundation of wisdom.     Knowledge of the Holy One results in good judgment. 11 Wisdom will multiply your days     and add years to your life. 12 If you become wise, you will be the one to benefit.     If you scorn wisdom, you will be the one to suffer. Folly Calls for a Hearing 13 The woman named Folly is brash.     She is ignorant and doesn't know it. 14 She sits in her doorway     on the heights overlooking the city. 15 She calls out to men going by     who are minding their own business. 16 “Come in with me,” she urges the simple.     To those who lack good judgment, she says, 17 “Stolen water is refreshing;     food eaten in secret tastes the best!” 18 But little do they know that the dead are there.     Her guests are in the depths of the grave.[a] Read full chapter Footnotes 9:18 Hebrew in Sheol.   1 John 2:1-6   New Living Translation     2 My dear children, I am writing this to you so that you will not sin. But if anyone does sin, we have an advocate who pleads our case before the Father. He is Jesus Christ, the one who is truly righteous. 2 He himself is the sacrifice that atones for our sins—and not only our sins but the sins of all the world. 3 And we can be sure that we know him if we obey his commandments. 4 If someone claims, “I know God,” but doesn't obey God's commandments, that person is a liar and is not living in the truth. 5 But those who obey God's word truly show how completely they love him. That is how we know we are living in him. 6 Those who say they live in God should live their lives as Jesus did.

The John Batchelor Show
4/8: The Soviet Empire comes to the Americas: 4/8: Nuclear Folly: A History of the Cuban Missile Crisis, by Serhii Plokhy

The John Batchelor Show

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 10, 2022 8:31


Photo: No known restrictions on publication. #FriendsofHistoryDebatingSociety 4/8: The Soviet Empire comes to the Americas: 4/8:  Nuclear Folly: A History of the Cuban Missile Crisis, by Serhii Plokhy   https://www.amazon.com/Nuclear-Folly-History-Missile-Crisis/dp/0393540812/ref=tmm_hrd_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr= Nearly thirty years after the end of the Cold War, today's world leaders are abandoning disarmament treaties, building up their nuclear arsenals, and exchanging threats of nuclear strikes. To survive this new atomic age, we must relearn the lessons of the most dangerous moment of the Cold War: the Cuban missile crisis. Serhii Plokhy's Nuclear Folly offers an international perspective on the crisis, tracing the tortuous decision-making that produced and then resolved it, which involved John Kennedy and his advisers, Nikita Khrushchev and Fidel Castro, and their commanders on the ground. In breathtaking detail, Plokhy vividly recounts the young JFK being played by the canny Khrushchev; the hotheaded Castro willing to defy the USSR and threatening to align himself with China; the Soviet troops on the ground clearing jungle foliage in the tropical heat, and desperately trying to conceal nuclear installations on Cuba, which were nonetheless easily spotted by U-2 spy planes; and the hair-raising near misses at sea that nearly caused a Soviet nuclear-armed submarine to fire its weapons . . .