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US struck Iran overnight, Trump said they will do so again on Wednesday night. Adding, they will hit power plants and bridges next week unless Iran negotiates.IRGC targeted weapons/storage in Bahrain and Kuwait, US positions in Jordan and the Fifth Fleet Command HQ. Iran said it is a mistake to think military action will force them to talk.Brent +0.8% on the above, USD failed to benefit with CPI continuing to weigh, USTs rangebound though Bunds came under modest pressure.APAC stocks were firmer as the US CPI read-across outweighed fresh US-Iran strikes, to the continued benefit of US futures, though Europe points lower, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%.GBP and EUR led on the softer USD, USD/JPY briefly moved below 162.00Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish CPIF Final (Jun), Spanish CPI Final (Jun), EZ Industrial Production (May), US PPI (Jun), BoC Policy Announcement (Jul), Fed Beige Book (Jul), Speakers including Fed's Williams, Musalem, Warsh & Cook, BoC Governor Macklem, BoE's Pill, ECB's Nagel, Supply from Germany, Earnings from United Airlines, BlackRock, Elevance Health, Johnson & Johnson, Morgan Stanley, PNC Financial Services, BNY Mellon.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US forces struck 140 Iranian military targets on Saturday and took further action on Sunday. Iran attacked bases in Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait & Bahrain.Crude rallied following this and Iran announcing the Strait of Hormuz would now be closed, though the US said transit has since happened, Brent +4.3%.APAC bourses were pressured, KOSPI underperformed as SK Hynix fell 13%, weighing on the NQ -1.2%.European futures in the red, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.8%. DXY is modestly firmer against G10 peers across the board.Fixed income underpressure as yields lift across the curve. Spot gold lost USD 4.1k/oz, down to USD 4050/oz. Base peers followed the tone lower.Looking ahead, highlights include German Current Account (May), OPEC MOMR (Jul), US Monthly Budget Statement (Jun), Coalition of the Willing Summit, Speakers including Fed's Waller, BoE's Pill & RBNZ's Conway, Supply from the EU.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Este episodio cuenta con la colaboración de HOLDEDLa bolsa continuó con su consolidación en la última semana. La tensión en Oriente Medio provocó la caída de los principales índices bursátiles que, sin embargo, no llegaron a perder sus primeros soportes clave. A pesar de la volatilidad del mercado y el ruido alrededor de los acontecimientos alrededor de EEUU e Irán, la realidad es que índices como el Nasdaq 100 o el EuroStoxx 50 siguen en modo pausa tras haber marcado sus últimos máximos históricos. Es decir, se mantiene viva la tendencia alcista.

Mediators are working to get the US and Iran back at the negotiating table, CNN reported, citing sources, later echoed by Axios.Brent is softer by around USD 0.20/bbl, with the market essentially waiting for a resumption of negotiations or strikes.Japanese assets lead after Finance Minister Katayama said pension funds should be encouraged to invest more in the domestic market.European bourses are on a modestly firmer footing, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%. US futures are mixed; NQ lags, potentially ahead of SK Hynix's ADR debut on the 13th.USD under pressure, JPY leads given the above, NZD continues to climb, CAD flat into its jobs report.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Jobs Report (Jun). Earnings from Delta Air Lines and Credit Ratings from Fitch on the Netherlands, Morningstar DBRS on Switzerland and Scope Ratings on Japan.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Las caídas registradas durante la jornada del miércoles no han alterado el escenario técnico de los principales índices europeos, según el análisis de Roberto Moro. El experto explicó que, en el caso del IBEX 35, el retroceso encontró apoyo en un nivel clave de Fibonacci correspondiente al último impulso alcista iniciado a finales de mayo. “Ha respetado todos los niveles importantes”, destacó, subrayando que el selectivo español se mantiene a apenas un 2% o 2,5% de sus máximos históricos. A su juicio, si desde estos niveles vuelve a rebotar y supera esos máximos, quedará confirmado que “lo que ha sucedido es una corrección mínima”, un movimiento que, además, “añade fortaleza a la tendencia previa”, que sigue siendo claramente alcista. El DAX y el EuroStoxx mantienen el tono positivo Moro también puso el foco en el comportamiento del DAX y del EuroStoxx, donde considera que la situación técnica continúa siendo favorable. El índice alemán, señaló, “ha aguantado niveles de soporte importantes” y, aunque todavía se encuentra entre un 3% y un 3,5% por debajo de sus máximos históricos, “parece que está en camino de franca recuperación”. En la misma línea se expresó sobre el EuroStoxx, que mantiene un patrón similar tras haber respetado las zonas de soporte relevantes durante el episodio de mayor debilidad. El rebote de los semiconductores aporta tranquilidad Respecto a la renta variable estadounidense, el analista destacó especialmente la evolución del índice de semiconductores de Filadelfia, que había sido el más castigado en las últimas semanas. Según explicó, el indicador “ha aguantado en los mismos mínimos del día 10 de junio” y desde ese nivel “está rebotando y haciéndolo con una relativa fuerza”. Para Moro, este comportamiento supone un elemento de tranquilidad dentro del escenario técnico actual, hasta el punto de concluir que, tras los últimos movimientos, “aquí de momento no ha pasado nada”.

US President Trump said the Iran ceasefire is over, "I think", lifting Brent above USD 79/bbl, weighing on equities and fixed income.However, Trump did add he will allow US negotiators to continue talking with Iran, but said, "I think this is a waste of time"Euro Stoxx 50 -2.2%, ES -1.0%, NQ -1.4% given the above. Mixed APAC trade, but China was in the green after updates relating to DeepSeek and Zhiphu.Apple signed an agreement with Broadcom, to design and produce custom silicon components and wireless technologies, deal expected to exceed USD 30bln.NZD outperforms after the RBNZ hiked and signalled further increases "appear likely". Elsewhere, CAD bid on energy moves while JPY slips as a result of its import dependence and yield moves.Looking ahead, US Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), NBP Policy Announcement (Jul), NBH Minutes (Jun), Fed Minutes (Jun), NATO Ankara Summit, Speakers include US President Trump, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks initially started the session with broad gains, but later reversed. Crude futures started the week on the back foot.Islamabad is the more likely option for the next round of US-Iran technical talks, with July 11th expected to be the date, Fox reported.OPEC+ agreed to raise output targets by an additional 188k bpd, in line with the group's plan to reverse output curbs.Ship-tracking data showed that at least 8 ships attempting to leave the Strait of Hormuz turned back, with the reasons unknown.European equity futures are indicative of a flat/slightly softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1% after cash closed +0.8% on Friday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Factory Orders (May), EU Retail Sales (May), US S&P Services/Composite PMI Final (Jun), and ISM Services PMI (Jun). Speakers include Fed's Waller, BoE's Mann, ECB's Schnabel, Lagarde and Lane.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Avec les marchés américains fermés vendredi pour veille de Fête nationale célébrant les 250 ans de la Déclaration d'indépendance américaine, les marchés européens sont restés sur les bonnes nouvelles de jeudi.Les derniers chiffres officiels de l'emploi aux Etats-Unis de jeudi étant ressortis inférieur aux prévisions, les investisseurs ont revu à la baisse leurs anticipations de hausse de taux de la Réserve fédérale américaine soutenant les marchés actions.L'indice Eurostoxx 50 a ainsi clôturé la séance de vendredi en hausse de 0.88% portant la performance de l'indice à plus de 3% sur la semaine.Hébergé par Ausha. Visitez ausha.co/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Mixed US handover continued into APAC before performance deteriorated, KOSPI -5% as the regions chip/tech momentum unwinds.European futures point to a lower open, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.9%.Crude relatively contained after Monday's pressure. US President Trump said they are negotiating with Iran and will see how it goes.DXY firmer to the modest detriment of peers, Antipodeans lagged given the broader risk tone.Fixed benchmarks extended marginally on Monday's advance, though action was choppy and rangebound.Looking ahead, highlights include Global Flash PMIs (Jun), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Richmond Fed Index (Jun), BCB Minutes (Jun), NBH Policy Announcement, Speakers including ECB's Lane, Elderson & Vujcic, BoE's Taylor & Dhingra, Supply from Netherlands, Germany & US, Earnings from FedEx. Note, Iranian President Pezeshkian is in Pakistan.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Crude opened firmer after reports suggested Iran had closed the Strait of Hormuz. However, this then reversed on a joint mediator statement, Brent currently in the red.Thereafter, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi flagged major progress, mediators say technical talks will continue this week.APAC stocks were mixed give the above. European futures point to a softer open, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4%.USD choppy but marginally firmer vs major peers. USTs and Bunds in the green but relatively contained.Mixed reporting on what UK PM Starmer will do in the next few days. Elsewhere, Burnham's team are said to be divided over who to appoint as Chancellor.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Inflation (May), EU Consumer Confidence Flash (Jun), CNB Minutes (Jun) Speakers including Fed's Waller & ECB's Lagarde.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Het Gentse biotechbedrijf ArgenX groeide sinds zijn oprichting in 2008 in een mum van tijd uit tot één van de schaarse unicorns van ons land, met een omzet dus van meer dan een miljard euro. Om kort daarna zijn intrede te maken op de beurs. Elf jaar later schopt argenx het zelfs tot de prestigieuze Europese sterindex Eurostoxx 50. Een opmerkeljke verdienste van oprichter Tim Van Hauwermeiren die het bedrijf de voorbije 18 jaar leidde. Vorige maand gaf hij het stuur over aan de Australische Karen Massey en zij is onze gaste in Trends Talk. Trends is een podcastkanaal van de redactie van Trends. --- --- Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

US VP Vance is no longer travelling to Switzerland. Reports suggest this is due to the situation around Lebanon. Crude in the red, but off lows.Labour's Burnham won the UK Makerfield by-election, meaning he is on course to become PM though the process for that largely depends on current PM Starmer.Two-way APAC trade in thin holiday conditions. European futures points to a softer open, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4%.USTR has commenced a Section 301 probe into German pharmaceuticals.DXY gradually extended on recent momentum to the modest detriment of peers across the board.Looking ahead, highlights include German PPI (May), UK Retail Sales (May), PSNB (May), Canadian Retail Sales (Apr), Speakers including ECB's Lane, Cipollone & Elderson.Note, US markets are closed for Juneteenth. Newsquawk desk is operating as usual.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

La última sesión de la semana deja una fotografía de mercado claramente favorable para la renta variable. En Europa, aunque algunos índices como el DAX o el CAC 40 muestran un peor comportamiento, el protagonismo cae sobre el IBEX 35, el EuroStoxx 50 y, especialmente, el sector bancario europeo, que mantienen una tendencia claramente alcista. El selectivo español cotiza en torno a los 19.364 puntos, consolidando las ganancias acumuladas en las últimas semanas. Al otro lado del Atlántico, el escenario continúa siendo positivo. Los principales índices estadounidenses siguen instalados en tendencia alcista y muy cerca de máximos históricos. Destaca especialmente el índice de semiconductores de Filadelfia, que continúa liderando las subidas gracias al impulso de todo el ecosistema vinculado a la inteligencia artificial y la tecnología. Sin embargo, el buen tono no se limita al sector tecnológico, ya que el S&P 500 y el Nasdaq apenas se han alejado de sus máximos pese a las recientes tomas de beneficios. Según Roberto Moro, el mercado ha recuperado prácticamente el mismo escenario que existía antes de que las tensiones geopolíticas en Oriente Medio alteraran temporalmente el sentimiento inversor. Ni los conflictos internacionales ni la volatilidad asociada han sido capaces de deteriorar una tendencia de fondo que sigue siendo constructiva tanto en Europa como en Estados Unidos. En este contexto, Moro plantea una estrategia de pares destinada a reducir la exposición a los movimientos generales del mercado. La propuesta consiste en comprar un ETF vinculado al sector financiero europeo y, simultáneamente, abrir una posición equivalente mediante un ETF inverso sobre el sector automovilístico europeo. Basado en la fortaleza relativa que están mostrando los bancos frente a unas compañías automovilísticas que continúan atravesando un momento complicado. Valores como BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Renault o Stellantis siguen mostrando debilidad técnica y un comportamiento claramente inferior al del sector financiero. La estrategia busca aprovechar que esta divergencia continúe durante las próximas semanas, independientemente de la dirección general que adopten las bolsas, reduciendo parte de la volatilidad a una posición tradicional de mercado.

Der DAX schafft erneut (noch) nicht den Sprung über die wichtige Marke von 25.000 Punkten, während der Euro Stoxx 50 und der Nikkei auf Rekordkurs bleiben. Gleichzeitig sorgt der fallende Ölpreis für Entspannung an den Märkten. Bei den Autoaktien herrscht dagegen Krisenstimmung: BMW schockiert mit einer Gewinnwarnung, Mercedes, Volkswagen und Porsche geraten unter Druck. Ist der Trade der Woche bei Porsche noch zu retten? Außerdem im Fokus: Auto1 überzeugt mit ambitionierten Wachstumszielen und steigender Profitabilität. Die Aktie nähert sich wichtigen Widerständen. Dazu analysieren wir Deutz – den traditionsreichen Motorenhersteller, der mit Defence, KI, Energieversorgung und Rechenzentren neue Wachstumsfelder erschließt. Steht die Aktie kurz vor dem nächsten Kursschub?

US President Trump said we made a great settlement of war with Iran, signing will probably happen in Europe and soon; Brent -2.0% at USD 88.50/bbl.Israel is not a party to the MOU, though PM Netanyahu expressed his appreciation to the US' commitment, CBS reported. Iran is reportedly yet to come to a final conclusion on the deal.APAC stocks rallied in a continuation of the strength from Wall St. on the settlement report and despite the Israeli & Iran reporting.European futures point to a firmer open, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.7%. US futures are also bid, ES & NQ +0.2%, looking to the SPCX IPO.FX moved to the above, currently features a firmer USD to the detriment of NZD and JPY in particular. Fixed income holds onto gains.Looking ahead, highlights include German/French/Spanish HICP Final (May), UK GDP (Apr), Industrial Production (Apr), Canadian Wholesale Sales (Apr), US UoM Prelim. (Jun), SpaceX Debut & COO Interview.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Israel conducted airstrikes in Beirut, which led to retaliatory attacks by Iran against Israel. The Iranians warned that if Israel expands its Lebanon operations, it will deliver “devastating blows”; Brent Aug'26 +4.1%.US President Trump said he was supposed to announce that a deal with Iran would be signed this week, and now this (in reference to the above airstrikes) is happening.US President Trump said Israeli PM Netanyahu will have no choice but to accept whatever deal the US negotiates with Iran because he calls the shots.APAC stocks were negative, amidst the geopolitical escalation and after Friday's tech-led losses. European bourses are indicative of a weak open.DXY is a touch lower, whilst Antipodeans are incrementally firmer. USD/JPY hovers above 160.00.Looking ahead, highlights include German Factory Orders (Apr), US NY Fed SCE (Jun), Apple WWDC Keynote (June 8-12).Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Roberto Moro, analiza en el consultorio de hoy, un Ibex 35 que continúa con fortaleza y se mantiene por encima de los 18.300 puntos, muy cerca de los máximos históricos que lleva varias sesiones intentando alcanzar. Aunque el selectivo español todavía no ha conseguido romper definitivamente esa barrera, la situación técnica sigue siendo favorable y mantiene intacta la estructura alcista de fondo. La evolución del mercado europeo está muy ligada a la de otros grandes índices del continente. Moro señala que tanto el DAX alemán como el EuroStoxx 50 también cotizan a escasa distancia de sus máximos históricos, lo que refuerza la idea de que las bolsas europeas atraviesan una fase de consolidación dentro de una tendencia positiva. Más que una corrección, los analistas describen el comportamiento actual como un movimiento lateral-alcista que permite absorber las ganancias acumuladas durante los últimos meses. En Estados Unidos, el panorama continúa siendo incluso más sólido. El Dow Jones marcó recientemente nuevos máximos históricos, mientras que el S&P 500 y el Nasdaq 100 permanecen muy cerca de sus cotas récord. La fortaleza de la tecnología y del sector de semiconductores sigue siendo uno de los principales motores del mercado estadounidense, que mantiene una clara predisposición alcista. Lo más relevante para Moro es la capacidad que han demostrado los mercados para resistir un contexto especialmente complejo. Durante los últimos meses, los inversores han tenido que convivir con tensiones geopolíticas, incertidumbre económica, presiones inflacionistas y dudas sobre la evolución de los tipos de interés. Sin embargo, ninguno de estos factores ha conseguido romper la tendencia positiva de las bolsas. Precisamente esa resistencia ante las malas noticias es uno de los argumentos que refuerzan el optimismo de fondo. Si acontecimientos potencialmente negativos no han sido capaces de truncar una racha tan favorable, resulta difícil encontrar a corto plazo un catalizador que altere significativamente la dirección del mercado. Por ello, el escenario predominante sigue siendo el de continuidad alcista tanto en Europa como en Estados Unidos. Mientras los índices mantengan sus actuales estructuras técnicas y sigan acercándose a máximos históricos, la tendencia principal continuará apuntando al alza.

Daniel Santacreu analiza hoy los el arranque de los mercados europeos con subidas significativas en la jornada de ayer. Esto les desmarca de la debilidad mostrada por Wall Street en la sesión anterior. Esta divergencia entre ambos lados del Atlántico se produce después de que los principales índices estadounidenses pusieran fin a su reciente racha alcista con una corrección que, según los analistas, entra dentro de la normalidad tras semanas de fuertes revalorizaciones. El S&P 500 y el Nasdaq cedieron terreno arrastrados por la recogida de beneficios en algunos de los grandes nombres del mercado, especialmente dentro del universo tecnológico. Tras acumular máximos históricos y avances muy destacados en valores ligados a la inteligencia artificial, el mercado estadounidense comienza a mostrar síntomas de sobrecompra que justifican este movimiento correctivo. Más que un cambio de tendencia, se interpreta como una pausa lógica dentro de una estructura de fondo que sigue siendo alcista. Mientras tanto, las bolsas europeas mantienen un mejor comportamiento relativo. El Ibex 35, el DAX alemán o el EuroStoxx 50 cotizan al alza, aunque todos ellos siguen enfrentándose a importantes zonas de resistencia. El selectivo español continúa encontrando dificultades para superar con claridad el entorno de los 18.500 puntos, una referencia que ya ha frenado anteriores intentos alcistas. En paralelo, empiezan a multiplicarse las voces que advierten sobre una posible burbuja en torno a la inteligencia artificial. Sin embargo, el consenso sigue recordando que los mercados pueden prolongar durante mucho tiempo dinámicas aparentemente irracionales, especialmente cuando el flujo de capital continúa concentrándose en los mismos sectores y compañías. La atención técnica sigue centrada en Estados Unidos. El nivel de los 7.500 puntos en el S&P 500 se considera una referencia crítica. Su pérdida podría acelerar las ventas y provocar un ajuste de mayor profundidad que acabaría trasladándose también a los mercados europeos. Por ahora, el escenario dominante sigue siendo el de una corrección puntual dentro de una tendencia alcista de largo plazo, aunque con señales de agotamiento que merecen vigilancia.

US President Trump said talks with Iran were continuing at a rapid pace; he thinks he will have an agreement with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the next week.Iran's Foreign Ministry said the US bears direct responsibility for violations of the ceasefire with Iran and by Israel in Lebanon, adding that a violation on one front was equal to violations on all fronts.The US is in talks to expand nuclear weapon deployments in Europe, according to the FT.Crude futures gradually pulled back overnight following the prior day's rally; fixed income caught a bid overnight.APAC stocks were mixed following the choppy performance stateside; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.5%.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ CPI (May), JOLTs Job Openings (Apr), RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism, New Zealand Export/Import Prices (Q1), NBP Policy Announcement (Jun). Speakers include Fed's Kashkari & Hammack, BoE's Bailey & Greene, ECB's Vujcic. Supply from the UK & Germany. Earnings from Dollar General, Palo Alto & ULTA Beauty.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The text of the possible memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran has not been finalised and confirmed to this point, according to Tasnim.A Romanian radio station reported that a drone hit a residential building in Romania's Galati, near the border with Ukraine.The EU is to discuss restrictions on Chinese imports, although no decision was expected on Friday.APAC stocks headed into month-end on the front foot as the region took impetus from the gains stateside.Crude futures were subdued after wiping out the prior day's initial gains.European equity futures indicate a mildly positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.3% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include Spanish HICP (May), German Import Prices (Apr), State/Nationwide CPI Prelim. (May), Unemployment Rate (May), French GDP Final (Q1), HICP Prelim. (May), Italian HICP Prelim. (May), Canadian GDP (Q1). Speakers include BoE's Bailey, Fed's Kashkari, Schmid, Bowman, Paulson & Daly. Credit Rating updates include S&P on France & Hungary, Morningstar DBRS on Spain.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Pepe Baynat señala un IBEX 35 que sigue mostrando una gran fortaleza relativa dentro de Europa. Los índices europeos han dado síntomas de debilidad y han reaccionado rápidamente al alza y ahora vuelven a enfrentarse a una zona clave: los máximos históricos. El selectivo español está trabajando bien la resistencia y el comportamiento técnico invita a pensar que podría intentar superarla en próximas sesiones. La sensación general es positiva. El mercado español está consolidando niveles después de las fuertes subidas acumuladas y, lejos de deteriorarse, mantiene una estructura sólida que favorece nuevos ataques alcistas. Superar esa franja de máximos históricos sería una señal muy importante para el conjunto del mercado europeo. El DAX alemán presenta una situación muy similar. El índice germano también se encuentra muy cerca de sus máximos históricos, en la zona de los 25.500 puntos, manteniendo igualmente una estructura técnica favorable. Lo mismo ocurre con el EuroStoxx 50, que se aproxima a la resistencia clave de los 6.220 puntos. En conjunto, Europa se encuentra “a tiro de piedra” de romper máximos históricos de forma coordinada. La idea que maneja el mercado es que, si finalmente se produce esa ruptura, probablemente llegará al mismo tiempo en los principales índices europeos, reforzando así la sensación de fortaleza global en la renta variable. Eso sí, bajo la superficie del mercado hay una realidad algo diferente. No todos los valores están acompañando estas subidas. De hecho, muchas compañías siguen mostrando debilidad, algunas acumulan caídas importantes y otras son incapaces de recuperar tendencia alcista. El comportamiento de los índices está siendo sostenido principalmente por los grandes valores de mayor capitalización, que son los que realmente están liderando el mercado y empujando a las bolsas hacia máximos.

A US official said the US military carried out new strikes on an Iranian military site and shot down multiple Iranian drones that posed a threat to US forces and commercial maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.IRGC said it targeted a US air base in response to the US aggression near Bandar Abbas Airport, while it added that any further US attacks would trigger a more decisive response.Air raid sirens sounded in Kuwait, and the Kuwaiti Army said air defences were intercepting hostile missiles and drone attacks, according to Al Hadath.US President Trump said he was not discussing easing sanctions on Iran and would keep control of Iran's money until it behaves, while adding he was uncomfortable with Russia or China taking Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpileCrude futures edged higher after reports of explosions in Iran's Bandar Abbas; 10yr UST futures continued their slide amid a rebound in oil.APAC stocks were pressured amid a flare-up of geopolitical tensions; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.2%.Looking ahead, highlights include Spanish Retail Sales (Apr), EU Consumer Confidence Final (May), US Initial Jobless Claims (May/23), US GDP 2nd Estimate (Q1), US Core PCE (Apr), US Durable Goods Orders (Apr), US Real Consumer Spending 2nd Estimate (Q1), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), ECB Minutes (Apr), SARB Policy Announcement (May). Speakers include Fed's Williams & Barkin, BoE's Breeden, ECB's Lane, Lagarde, Cipollone, Schnabel & SNB's Schlegel. Supply from the UK, Italy & US, Earnings from Dell.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

A US Central Command spokesperson said US forces conducted self-defence strikes in southern Iran on Monday, in which US forces hit targets, including missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines.US Secretary of State Rubio said US strikes on Iran do not preclude a diplomatic deal and that an Iran deal is possible within days.A source familiar with talks between the high-level Iranian delegation and officials in Doha said Qatari mediation has led to an understanding with the US on Tehran's frozen financial assets, according to Al Jazeera.Crude futures partially rebounded off the prior day's lows after slumping nearly 7% on Monday.Asia-Pac stocks were mixed; European equity futures indicate a mildly lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.3%.Looking ahead, highlights include US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Apr), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (May), Consumer Confidence (May), NBH Policy Announcement (May), Supply from Italy & the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump posted on Saturday that an agreement has largely been negotiated, subject to finalisation between the US, Iran and various Middle Eastern countries.US and Iran were reportedly close to signing an agreement involving a 60-day ceasefire extension, which could be extended by mutual consent, according to Axios.US senior officials said the naval blockade will only be lifted after Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz, and no funds will be released until enriched uranium is handed over.Crude futures declined amid hopes for a US-Iran agreement after President Trump announced on Saturday that an agreement has largely been negotiated.APAC stocks gained with risk appetite boosted; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 1.0%.Looking ahead, holidays include cash market closures in the US and UK.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

En el consultorio de bolsa de hoy, Daniel Santacreu analiza una semana que arranca positiva en las bolsas europeas, impulsadas por la caída del precio del petróleo, que vuelve a situarse por debajo de los 100 dólares por barril. Explica Santacreu que el mercado mantiene una clara inercia alcista. Tanto en Europa como en Estados Unidos, las bolsas apoyan subidas sostenidas y en un creciente optimismo respecto a Oriente Medio por el precio del petróleo, donde cualquier noticia favorable sobre posibles avances diplomáticos actúa como catalizador para las compras. En Wall Street, el S&P 500 se mantiene muy cerca de máximos históricos, con la zona de los 7.500 puntos como referencia inmediata. Una ruptura al alza podría abrir el camino hacia los 7.600 puntos, mientras que el soporte clave se sitúa en los 7.300. Sin embargo, Santacruz lanzó una advertencia especial sobre el Nasdaq 100, donde empieza a apreciarse una posible figura de doble techo alrededor de los 29.700 puntos, justo antes del nivel psicológico de los 30.000. Considera que esa zona puede convertirse en un punto de inflexión importante para el mercado estadounidense. En Europa, el IBEX 35 intenta consolidar la superación de los 18.270 puntos para atacar de nuevo los máximos de abril en torno a los 18.500. También el DAX y el EuroStoxx 50 mantienen una estructura técnica alcista tras superar resistencias relevantes. Pese al optimismo, Santacreu insiste en que conviene mantener la prudencia en Estados Unidos, ya que algunas referencias técnicas importantes podrían frenar el actual impulso alcista. Aun así, el escenario principal continúa siendo favorable para las bolsas mientras el petróleo siga relajándose y no reaparezcan tensiones geopolíticas más severas.

US stocks ultimately closed higher in what was another choppy session dominated by contradictory geopolitical headlines surrounding the Middle East conflict.Al Arabiya TV was initially reported to have obtained the final draft of a prospective Pakistani-mediated US-Iran agreement, although it was later stated that these reports were fabricated.A senior Iranian source said no deal had been reached yet, but gaps have narrowed, with Iran's uranium enrichment and its control over the Strait of Hormuz among the sticking points.A high-level source familiar with the matter later said the Iranian Supreme Leader's final decision is not to hand over the enriched uranium to Washington, according to Al Hadath.APAC stocks were mostly higher; European equity futures indicate a higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 1.0%.Looking ahead, highlights include German GfK Consumer Confidence (Jun), GDP Final (Q1) & Ifo Business Climate (May), UK Retail Sales (Apr), PSNB (Apr), Canadian Retail Sales (Mar), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (May), BoC SLOS (May), and Kevin Warsh sworn in as Fed Chair. Speakers include ECB's Lane & Fed's Waller. Credit Ratings: Scope Ratings on China, S&P on Norway, Moody's on Hungary, Portugal & UK.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Iran's position in talks with the US to end the war hasn't changed much from earlier iterations that failed to yield progress towards a deal, according to WSJ, citing mediators and US officials.US Vice President Vance said he had spoken with President Trump regarding Iran and stated that Tehran had two options: either reach an agreement or resume the war.A US intelligence assessment recently showed that US forces identified at least 10 mines in the Strait of Hormuz, according to CBS, citing US officials.Samsung Electronics' (005930 KS) largest labour union will begin an 18-day strike on 21st May after wage talks broke down, Yonhap reported.APAC stocks declined following the weak handover from the US; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.6%.Looking ahead, highlights include German PPI (Apr), UK Inflation Report (Apr), EU Inflation Final (Apr), New Zealand Trade Balance (Apr), and FOMC Minutes (Apr). Speakers include US President Trump, Fed's Paulson & Barr, BoE's Bailey, Breeden, Dhingra & Mann. Supply from Germany & US, Earnings from NVIDIA, Target & Intuit.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump posted on Truth that the US military is to hold off on the Iran attack that was initially planned for Tuesday after Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar requested him to do so, as serious talks are now taking place.US President Trump also instructed the US to be prepared to go forward with a full, large-scale assault of Iran on a moment's notice, in the event an acceptable deal is not reached.US President Trump told The Post on Monday that he is “not open” to any concessions for Tehran after receiving the latest disappointing Iranian response on peace deal talks.Crude futures were lower following the prior day's choppy mood owing to mixed geopolitical headlines, although the main highlight was US President Trump calling off an attack on Iran.APAC stocks traded mixed; European equity futures indicate a mildly higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2%.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Jobs Report (Mar/Apr), Average Earnings (Mar), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Canadian CPI (Apr). Speakers include BoE's Breeden, ECB's Lane & Fed's Waller. Supply from UK & Germany, Earnings from Home Depot.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said it's just a question of time regarding Iran, but added that he is not going to be much more patient with Iran.US President Trump said he made fantastic trade deals with China, and it was an incredible visit, while they've settled a lot of different problems, and the relationship is a very strong one.Crude futures gradually edged higher amid risks of geopolitical escalation when US President Trump returns from his Beijing trip.APAC stocks were mostly subdued; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.3%.UK's Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham will be requesting to stand in the Makerfield by-election after MP Josh Simons stepped down.Looking ahead, highlights include Italian HICP Final (Apr), Canadian Wholesale Sales (Mar), US Industrial Production (Apr), Comments from Fed's Barr, Credit Ratings Updates including Fitch on Germany, S&P on Italy, Morningstar DBRS on Portugal and the UK, Scope Ratings on Poland.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump told Chinese President Xi that they've had a fantastic relationship and they are going to have a fantastic future together.Chinese President Xi told US President Trump it is a pleasure to meet him in Beijing, while he has always believed that the common interests between China and the US outweigh the differences.US Secretary of State Rubio said the US hopes to convince China to play a more active role in persuading Iran to back down on its actions in the Gulf.An Iranian NSC spokesperson said new confrontations with the US are possible, and they are preparing a law regarding navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.APAC stocks traded mixed; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.7%.Looking ahead, highlights include Trump-Xi Summit (14th-15th May); UK GDP (Mar/Q1), Industrial Production (Mar), Spanish HICP Final (Apr), US Retail Sales (Apr), Export/Import Prices (Apr), Jobless Claims (May 9), Atlanta Fed GDP. Speakers include ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Pill, Fed's Logan, Schmid, Hammack & Williams. Earnings from Telefonica, Burberry & National Grid.Holiday: Ascension Day Holiday (Closures in Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark).Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

n el consultorio de bolsa de hoy, Daniel Santacreu analiza un mercado que muestra una clara divergencia entre Europa y Estados Unidos. Mientras las bolsas europeas tratan de rebotar desde zonas de soporte, los índices americanos continúan instalados en máximos históricos, impulsados principalmente por el sector tecnológico. El Nasdaq y el S&P 500 siguen disparados, aunque el analista advierte que la subida en Wall Street empieza a parecer un “espejismo” provocado por la falta de amplitud del mercado. La realidad es que la mayoría de las acciones apenas aguantan o incluso siguen cayendo, mientras los gigantes tecnológicos sostienen a los índices estadounidenses. El ejemplo más claro está en los semiconductores, que continúan en máximos históricos liderados por Nvidia, compensando la debilidad de otros grandes valores tecnológicos como Microsoft o Meta. Todo ello ocurre en un contexto complicado, con el petróleo Brent y el West Texas ya por encima de los 100 dólares y con señales de repunte de la inflación. Sin embargo, estos factores todavía no se están reflejando plenamente en los índices americanos debido al enorme peso de las grandes tecnológicas. En Europa, el escenario es distinto. Los principales índices se encuentran apoyándose en zonas técnicas relevantes y mostrando rebotes moderados. El IBEX 35, por ejemplo, logró mantenerse sobre niveles clave y podría confirmar un nuevo tramo alcista si consolida los avances en cierre semanal. Situaciones similares se observan en el CAC francés, el DAX alemán y el EuroStoxx 50, todos ellos reaccionando desde importantes soportes técnicos. Pese al fuerte comportamiento de Wall Street, Santacreu advierte de elevados niveles de sobrecompra en Estados Unidos, lo que podría abrir la puerta a alguna corrección de corto plazo tras semanas de subidas muy intensas.

US President Trump said they are only going to make a good deal regarding Iran and will have a long talk with Chinese President Xi about the Iran war.Iran will not enter the second round of talks with the US without fulfilling five confidence-building conditions, local media reported.US President Trump posted that NVIDIA CEO Huang is on Air Force One along with a number of CEOs of large US companies.UK government whips believe Wes Streeting will make his move on Thursday to avoid clashing with the King's Speech.APAC stocks traded mixed; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.8%.Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish Inflation Final (Apr), French Inflation Final (Apr), EZ Employment Change (Q1), Industrial Production (Mar), GDP 2nd Estimate (Q1), US PPI (Apr), BoC Minutes (Apr), Riksbank Minutes (May), IEA OMR (May), OPEC MOMR (May). Speakers include BoE's Mann, Fed's Collins & Kashkari, ECB's Lane & Lagarde. Supply from Australia, Italy, Germany & US. Earnings from Cisco Systems, Alibaba, Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Allianz, E.ON, Merck & RWE.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he has a plan on Iran and repeated that their proposal is unacceptable, while he added that the US blockade on Iran was part of military genius.US President Trump said the ceasefire is unbelievably weak and is on life support, but added that a diplomatic solution with Iran is still possible.US President Trump was reported to have met with his national security team on Monday to discuss the way forward in the Iran war, including possibly resuming military action, Axios sources reported.The White House said US President Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi on Thursday at 10:15 AM in Beijing (03:15BST/22:15EDT), and a banquet will be held at 18:00 on Thursday (11:00BST/06:00EDT).APAC stocks traded mixed; European equity futures indicate a negative open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.7%.Looking ahead, highlights include German HICP Final (Apr), ZEW (May), US Inflation (Apr), ADP Employment Change Weekly, EIA STEO (May), and EU Informal Meeting of Energy Ministers (May 12-13), Australian federal budget. Speakers include RBNZ's Bremen, BoC's Macklem, ECB's Elderson, Fed's Williams & Goolsbee. Supply from the Netherlands, UK, Germany & US. Earnings from JD com, Under Armour, Siemens Energy, Munich Re, Bayer & Vodafone.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Roberto Moro destaca un IBEX 35 que continúa destacando entre las bolsas europeas y se mantiene cerca de máximos históricos, mientras el mercado sigue sorprendido por la resistencia de la renta variable pese al contexto geopolítico y al petróleo rondando los 100 dólares. Precisamente, uno de los focos de atención es la creciente divergencia entre renta fija y renta variable, con unas brechas que siguen ampliándose en favor de las bolsas. Aunque Europa muestra cierta debilidad intradía, el panorama técnico sigue siendo constructivo. Moro señala un DAX que deja una pequeña vela alcista en el gráfico semanal, un comportamiento que también comparten el EuroStoxx 50 y el sectorial bancario europeo. Aun así, el analista enfoca un Wall Street que mantiene una fortaleza muy superior, especialmente en el S&P 500, el Nasdaq y, sobre todo, en el índice de semiconductores de Filadelfia, donde la sensación de continuidad alcista es mucho más evidente. En paralelo, Roberto Moro explica que el dólar parece haber corregido parte de su comportamiento como activo refugio y empieza a mostrar cierta relajación en el corto plazo, estabilizándose en zonas de soporte relevantes. Todo ello contribuye a un escenario que, pese a la volatilidad reciente, sigue siendo positivo para la renta variable. De cara a la próxima semana, el mercado permanecerá muy pendiente de la evolución del conflicto en Irán. El lunes podrían conocerse nuevos datos que ayuden a definir hacia dónde pueden dirigirse los movimientos de mercado en el corto plazo.

Iran is expected to provide its reply to the US proposal for ending the war to mediators on Thursday, according to CNN, citing a regional source. US President Trump is optimistic about the Iran framework, and that the timeframe is one week, Fox reported. US President Trump could turn to military action without an agreement with Iran ahead of the China trip, according to Axios, citing US officials.US President Trump's reversal on his plan to help ships go through the Strait of Hormuz came after Saudi Arabia suspended the US's ability to use its bases and airspace to carry out Project Freedom, according to NBC, citing US officials.European equity futures are indicative of a quiet open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.1% after cash closed +2.5% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Factory Orders (Mar), French Balance of Trade (Mar), US Challenger Job Layoffs (Apr), US Jobless Claims (May 2), Atlanta Fed GDP, Norges Bank/Riksbank/CNB/Banxico Policy Announcement (May), CBR Minutes (May), UK Local Elections. Speakers include ECBʼs de Guindos, Elderson, Schnabel, Lane, BoEʼs Lombardelli, Mann, Taylor, Fedʼs Hammack, Williams, Kashkari, Norges Bankʼs Bache, Riksbankʼs Thedeen. Supply from Spain, France. Earnings from CoreWeave, IREN, Coinbase, Cloudflare, DraftKings, ACM Research, Datadog, McDonald's & ShellRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said the war could go on for another two to three weeks; time is not of the essence.US officials say the military is closer to resuming combat operations than 24 hours ago, Fox reported.Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi posted, "As talks are making progress with Pakistan's gracious effort, the US should be wary of being dragged back into a quagmire by ill-wishers. So should the UAE."RBA announcement saw a near-unanimous vote to hike the Cash Rate, coupled with the net hawkish statement, which highlighted inflation concerns from the ongoing Iranian war.European equity futures point to a lower open, with the Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.2% after cash markets fell 2.2% on Monday.Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss Inflation (Apr), US Building Permits Final (Mar), Canadian Balance of Trade (Mar), Canadian PMI (Apr), US PMI Final (Apr), US ISM Services (Apr), US JOLTS (Mar), US New Home Sales (Mar), US RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism (May), New Zealand Unemployment Rate (Q1). Speakers include RBA's Bullock, ECB's Lagarde, Lane, Fed's Bowman, Barr. Supply from Germany. Earnings from AMD, AMC, Strategy, Tempus AI, Shopify, PayPal, Pfizer, HSBC, Leonardo, and Infineon.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump posted on Sunday that the US will guide neutral ships safely out of the Strait of Hormuz under “Project Freedom”, beginning Monday morning Middle East time.An Iranian official said any American interference in the new maritime regime of the Strait of Hormuz will be considered a violation of the ceasefire.US President Trump posted at 23:47 BST on May 2nd that he would review Iran's proposal but “can't imagine that it would be acceptable”, Trump added that Iran had “not yet paid a big enough price”.USD/JPY was volatile amid thin liquidity (Golden Week) and recent intervention speculation, with a sharp drop observed at 04:45 BST.European equity futures are indicative of a modestly firmer return from the long weekend, with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after cash closed with gains of 1.1% last Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include Global Manufacturing PMI Finals (Apr), US Factory Orders (Mar), and US President Trump. Speakers include Fed's Williams, BoC's Macklem and Rogers, ECB's Cipollone, de Guindos. Earnings from Palantir, ONSemi, Pinterest, Norwegian Cruise Line, Tyson Foods. Holiday: UK May Bank Holiday.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Israel is on high alert in anticipation of a possible renewed war this weekend, according to Al Arabiya, citing Channel 13.Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Ghalibaf resigns from the negotiating team following the intervention of the IRGC, N12 news reported.US President Trump said the US is to work with Lebanon to protect itself from Hezbollah and that the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire is to be extended by three weeks.NQ futures outperformed after Intel surged over 19% after-hours as the Co. provided a solid Q1 report while raising its guidance.US President Trump said the US will put a tariff on the UK if the digital service tax is not dropped.APAC stocks traded mostly in the red, ex. Nikkei 225; European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 futures -0.7%.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Retail Sales (Mar), German Ifo Survey (Apr), Canadian Retail Sales (Feb), US UoM Survey Final (Apr), CBR Policy Announcement (Apr), Speakers include SNB's Schlegel, Supply from Italy, Earnings from Procter & Gamble & Eni.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump expects Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi to remain part of Iran talks and said the 3-5 day ceasefire is not true, according to Fox.Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran has welcomed dialogue and continues to do so, while he stated that a breach of commitments, blockade and threats are the main obstacles to genuine negotiations.Crude futures were higher but off today's best levels after an early aggressive move to the upside was faded shortly after, due to a lack of actual fresh drivers behind the initial move.APAC stocks were mostly negative; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.0%.Looking ahead, highlights include Global Flash PMIs (Apr), UK PSNB (Mar), French Business Confidence (Apr), Mexican Inflation (Apr), Canadian PPI (Mar), US Jobless Claims (Apr/18), and ECB Wage Tracker. Supply from the US. Earnings from Blackstone, Freeport-McMoran, American Airlines, Keurig Dr Pepper, Intel, Lockheed Martin, SAP, Safran, Sanofi, Vinci, and Orange.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump expects Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi to remain part of Iran talks and said the 3-5 day ceasefire is not true, according to Fox.Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran has welcomed dialogue and continues to do so, while he stated that a breach of commitments, blockade and threats are the main obstacles to genuine negotiations.Crude futures were higher but off today's best levels after an early aggressive move to the upside was faded shortly after, due to a lack of actual fresh drivers behind the initial move.APAC stocks were mostly negative; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.0%.Looking ahead, highlights include Global Flash PMIs (Apr), UK PSNB (Mar), French Business Confidence (Apr), Mexican Inflation (Apr), Canadian PPI (Mar), US Jobless Claims (Apr/18), and ECB Wage Tracker. Supply from the US. Earnings from Blackstone, Freeport-McMoran, American Airlines, Keurig Dr Pepper, Intel, Lockheed Martin, SAP, Safran, Sanofi, Vinci, and Orange.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said the US have been asked to hold their attack on Iran until such time as its leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal.More recently, it was reported that Iran received 'some sign' the US is ready to break the blockade – a rise in sentiment was seen.UKMTO said it received information about an incident 15 nautical miles to the northeast of Oman in which a container vessel was approached by a single IRGC gunboat.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.9% on Tuesday.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Inflation (Mar), South African Inflation (Mar), EZ Consumer Confidence (Apr), CBRT Policy Announcement (Apr), Bank of Indonesia Policy Announcement (Apr). Speakers include BoE's Breeden, ECB's Lagarde, Elderson, Lane & Cipollone. Supply from Germany & US. Earnings from Vertiv, Boeing, GE Vernova, AT&T, Tesla, ServiceNow, IBM, L'Oreal, Danone, Accor & Akzo Nobel.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said they are making a lot of progress on Iran, and he is not sure the ceasefire needs to be extended, while he added that Iran is willing to do things today they previously weren't.US President Trump said he had excellent conversations with Lebanon's President Aoun and Israeli PM Netanyahu, while he announced that the leaders agreed to formally begin a 10-day ceasefire from 17:00EDT on Thursday.Israeli security official said the military has no plans to withdraw forces from Southern Lebanon during a ceasefire.A source told Al-Mayadeen that starting Friday, at noon (10:00BST) anyone wishing to cross Bab al-Mandab should be more vigilant than ever before in all six directions, while other reports noted that the warning was made by a resistance commander.APAC stocks were mostly lower; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2%.Looking ahead, highlights include Italian Balance of Trade (Feb), Canadian Housing Starts (Mar). Speakers include BoE's Breeden & Pill, Fed's Daly, Barkin & Waller. Earnings from State Street. Credit Reviews include Morningstar DBRS reviews credit rating on the EU and Italy.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The Trump administration's goal is to bring both sides to the brink of an overarching deal to end the conflict that can then be pushed over the finish line in a second face-to-face meeting.Iran could consider ships being able to sail through the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz without interference or attack as part of a deal with the US.Iran and the Pakistani mediator will discuss details of the messages exchanged between Tehran and Washington today.Israeli officials said their assessment was that the ceasefire in Lebanon could begin within days; Lebanese officials said a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was expected 'soon'.APAC stocks mostly gained; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.3%.Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP (Feb), Industrial Production (Feb), Italian HICP Final (Mar), EZ HICP Final (Mar), US Jobless Claims (Apr/11), Philly Fed Index (Apr), Industrial/Manufacturing Production (Mar), New Zealand Food Inflation (Mar), ECB Minutes (Mar) & SNB Minutes (Mar). Speakers include Fed's Williams & Miran, ECB's Schnabel, Nagel & Lane, RBA's Hunter & BoE's Taylor. Supply from Spain, France & UK, Earnings from TSMC, Abbott, Charles Schwab, PepsiCo, Netflix, Tesco & Pernod Ricard.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he views the war as being very close to over, according to Fox.US President Trump said he isn't thinking about extending the ceasefire and doesn't think it will be necessary, according to reports citing an ABC reporter on X.US Vice President JD Vance said they are negotiating with Iran and the ceasefire is holding, while he also stated Iranian negotiators wanted to make a deal, and he feels good about where they are.US President Trump's full interview on Fox Business will be aired on April 15th at 06:00EDT/11:00BST.APAC stocks were mostly higher; European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1%Looking ahead, highlights include French HICP Final (Mar), EZ Industrial Production (Feb), US Export/Import Prices (Mar), Fed Beige Book (Apr). Speakers include Fed's Barr & Bowman, ECB's Lagarde, Cipollone & Schnabel, BoE's Bailey, SNB's Schlegel, RBA's Hauser & RBNZ's Breman. Supply from Germany. Earnings from Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Hermes.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Is the traditional geopolitical risk playbook dead? In this episode of The European Market Brief, Mark Longo is joined by Morad Askar, Founder of EdgeClear, and Matt Koren, Equity and Index Derivatives Sales and Global VSTOXX Lead at Eurex, to dissect the unprecedented market activity following recent escalations in the Middle East. While the "old playbook" suggests a flight to quality in gold and a spike in oil, the recent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has sent the markets into a tailspin of "trade the tweet" volatility that defied standard expectations. The team explores why European derivatives—particularly VSTOXX and EURO STOXX 50—saw volumes surge to 2x their annual average, and why the "buy the dip" mentality is being tested like never before. Topics covered include: The Volatility Regime: Why VSTOXX hit levels near 35 while VIX lagged behind. The Transatlantic Spread: How energy dependency makes European markets more vulnerable to Middle East conflict than the US. Retail vs. Institutional Flow: The shift toward order book liquidity and the rise of daily options in Europe. Risk Management: Why "holding through the weekend" has become a dangerous game for professional traders in a 24/7 news cycle. Whether you're trading DAX, Bunds, or looking for cross-border volatility opportunities, this episode provides the "new" rules for an evolving, headline-driven market.

The US is reportedly eyeing a potential second round of in-person talks with Iran as the blockade takes hold, according to CNN.AP reported that the US and Iran could be headed toward a second round of talks, which could happen on Thursday.US VP Vance said we made some progress in Iran talks, and he wouldn't say things went wrong, while he added Iranians moved in our direction in talks, but not far enough.A US official said there is “continued engagement” with Iran and forward motion on trying to get to an agreement, while a senior US official also said talks between the US and Iran are continuing even now and there is progress in trying to reach an agreement, according to Axios.An IRGC spokesperson said that if the war continues, they will unveil capabilities that the enemy has no idea about, according to SNN.APAC stocks traded higher as risk sentiment was underpinned by hopes regarding US-Iran peace talks; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.4%.Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish CPIF Final (Mar), German Wholesale Prices (Mar), Spanish HICP Final (Mar), US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Mar), ADP Weekly Change, PPI (Mar), South Korean Export/Import Prices (Mar), IEA OMR (Apr), IMF World Economic Outlook Press Briefing (Apr). Speakers include BoE's Mann, Bailey & Greene, ECB's Lane, Cipollone & Lagarde, RBNZ's Breman, Fed's Goolsbee, Barr, Paulson, Collins & Barkin, Supply from the Netherlands & Germany. Earnings from JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, Citi, J&J, Wells Fargo, BMW & Kering.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The US delegation, led by Vice President Vance, left US-Iran talks in Pakistan to return to the US without an agreement after 21 hours of talks.US President Trump said the US Navy will begin the process of blockading any and all ships trying to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz.US Central Command said it will begin implementing a blockade on all maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports on April 13th at 17:00 Israeli time (15:00BST/10:00EDT).Crude futures surged with Brent crude back above the USD 100/bbl level following the failure of US-Iran talks in Islamabad and with the US to begin a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.APAC stocks declined; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.4%, off worst levels.Looking ahead, highlights include US Existing Home Sales (Mar), OPEC MOMR (Apr). Speakers include ECB's de Guindos, RBA's Hauser & Fed's Miran. Earnings from Goldman Sachs & LVMH.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he is optimistic that an Iran peace deal is within reach, while he added that Iran's leaders talk much differently when at a meeting than they do to the press, and they are much more reasonable.US President Trump posted, "There are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz Strait — They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!"An informed source stated Tehran rules out the option of negotiating with Washington until a complete ceasefire is established in Lebanon, and has strongly asserted this position.An Israeli official said they will scale back operations in Lebanon in the coming days due to US pressure, according to Channel 13.APAC stocks were mostly higher following the gains on Wall Street; European equity futures indicate a higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.6%.Looking ahead, highlights include German Inflation Final (Mar), Norwegian Inflation (Mar), Swedish GDP (Feb), Canadian Jobs Report (Mar), US Inflation (Mar), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prelim. (Apr), Comments from ECB's de Guindos, Supply from Italy, Credit Ratings updates including Moody's on France, S&P on the UK & Scope Ratings on Hungary.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump threatened massive military escalation if Iran deal terms are not met, vowed no nuclear weapons, and they are to secure the Strait of Hormuz.Iran's Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said three clauses of the 10-point plan have been violated so far, and as such, a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations is unreasonable.IRGC claimed on Thursday that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply and then stopped following what it said was an Israeli ceasefire violation in Lebanon, according to CNN.FOMC Minutes stated that many said persistently higher oil prices could keep inflation elevated long enough to justify rate rises.APAC stocks were lower in a mild pullback from yesterday's ceasefire-fuelled extremes; European equity futures indicate a marginally lower open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1%.Looking ahead, highlights include German Trade Balance (Feb), Industrial Production (Feb), US Initial Jobless Claims (Apr/04), PCE Final (Feb), GDP Final (Q4), Atlanta Fed GDP, NBP Policy Announcement, Banxico Minutes. Comments from SNB's Schlegel. Supply from Spain, UK & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

In this episode of The European Market Brief, Mark Longo is joined by Dr. Russell Rhoads (IU Kelley School of Business), Steve Sosnick (Interactive Brokers), and Matt Riley (Eurex) to dissect a rapidly shifting landscape. With the Iran conflict crossing the one-month mark, the panel explores why the "shock and awe" expectations of a quick resolution have evaporated, replaced by fears of a lingering market impact through the end of the year. Key Topics Covered: The VSTOXX 30-Handle: We haven't seen these levels in a year. Is the current spike justified, or are traders "once bitten, twice shy" after the quick recoveries of 2025? The Great Divergence: Why the U.S. and Europe are splitting on rate expectations—from "endless cuts" to potential hikes. Free Data for the "Eurex-Curious": Steve Sosnick breaks down Interactive Brokers' new initiative providing free real-time Eurex data for retail and institutional traders. Rotation vs. Repatriation: Is the "Sell America" trade real? Why investors are looking at the STOXX 600 for value and diversification away from the Mag 7. The Red Phone: The team answers listener questions on the Brent/WTI spread and whether the U.S. Midterms are actually being priced into European vol. This episode is brought to you by Eurex—the home of Euro STOXX, VSTOXX, DAX, and European rates derivatives.