Podcasts about xau

Bull markets don't last forever. When you're in the throes of one, it can feel like they do. But they don't, and at a certain point you have to sell.Gold bull markets can feel even more eternal. Not just because the metal itself is eternal, but because the story comes along that we are going back to a gold standard, or that the Great Purge, which many economists of the Austrian school say is inevitable after fifty years of fiat decadence, is finally upon us.I get that argument. But it is too neat, too deterministic. Real life is much more mucky.So today I want to consider a very important question, and I want to try and answer it honestly:Where are we in this bull market?Has gold already peaked? It's possible. The spike to $5,600/oz at the end of January had many of the hallmarks of a blow-off top.Or perhaps $5,600 was just a mid-cycle peak, such as we saw in 2006 or 1975-76 during previous bull markets.Or is this bull market still in its infancy?I'm going to study this bull market through every lens I can think of: price, time, valuation, participation, market structure, macro context and sentiment.My bias going in is that we are mid-cycle, as I argued in my Great Forecast last week. Let's see where I end up. 1. DurationThere have been two great gold bull markets since the end of the gold standard: 1971-1980 and 2001-2011. Both lasted nine to ten years.When did this one begin?It depends how you define it.You could take the bear-market low of $1,045 in late 2015. You could take the $1,160 retest in 2018. You could take 2019, when gold broke out of its multi-year base.Technical analysis is often in the eye of the beholder. Just like bull markets.You could even argue late 2022, when the current acceleration began.If you start in 2015, this bull market has already lasted ten years. That would put it right in line with the duration of previous cycles, and you could argue it is close to exhaustion.If you start in 2018 or 2019, there may be several years left to run.I favour 2018. Just as gold hit $250 in 1999, rallied, and then returned to roughly the same level in 2001 before the real bull market began, the 2018 low feels like the equivalent retest. Of course this is debatable.And there is always the possibility that this bull market lasts longer than previous ones.Verdict: mid- to late-cycle.2. Relative valuation vs other assetsOilWith gold at $5,200 and WTI crude around $87, it takes roughly 60 barrels of oil to buy one ounce of gold.Historically this ratio ranges between 6 and 30.The only time oil has been this cheap relative to gold was in the 2020 pandemic collapse, when oil went negative.My view: it's not so much that gold is expensive as that oil is cheap. Plus commodities inevitably get cheaper as we get better at producing them. (As long as you don't measure the price in fiat).Gold vs the S&P 500With the S&P around 6,765, it takes about 1.3 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the index.This ratio has been as high as 5 - at the peak of Dotcom in 2000, and the nadir of gold - and as low as 0.2 (during the depths of the 1930s and at the 1980 gold peak).Gold is therefore on the expensive side relative to equities, but not at historic extremes.This ratio could fall further if equities fall or gold rises.Gold vs US housingThe US housing market varies enormously by region - Beverely Hills is not Detroit, Miami Beach is not McDowell County - so national averages should be treated cautiously. But they still give a rough guide.We are now below the 2011 level and approaching 1980 territory in terms of how many ounces of gold buy a typical home.Pretty extreme.Overall verdict: late-cycle. Warning signal3. Institutional ownershipGold is still under-owned in institutional portfolios.Even after the recent rally, gold represents only a tiny fraction of global portfolio allocation compared with equities and bonds.Gold mining equities are even more neglected.Verdict: mid-cycle4. Central banksCentral bank buying slowed to 863 tonnes in 2025, down from record levels in 2024, but still well above the 2010-2021 average.However, the World Gold Council reported that central banks purchased only 5 tonnes in January, below the monthly average of 27 tonnes. I would not read too much into that. Much buying is reported with delays, and China in particular reveals little about its activity. The usual assumption is that central bank buying is an early or mid-cycle phenomenon. I am not entirely convinced. If the real driver of this bull market is de-dollarisation and reserve diversification amidst a wider geopolitical shift, then official buying could persist for years.Gold currently represents just under 30% of central bank reserves. The US dollar still accounts for roughly 56%.I don't think this bull market ends until gold sits north of 50% having overtaken the dollar itself.Question: is the war in Iran going to arrest of accelerate de-dollarisation? You know the answer. Verdict: mid-cycle5. Retail participationRetail demand is growing. 2025 saw record bar and coin demand. ETF inflows are rising, but they are not exploding. Mining companies are finally attracting interest again.Silver went briefly manic last month, which is not a healthy sign, but the episode is already unwinding.Verdict: mid-cycleBy the way, due to its senior currency status, the US dollar is going to preserve its purchasing power better than the pound, which is a car crash waiting to happen. I keep getting asked, “is it too late to buy gold?”. If you are in the UK, . We are turning into South Africa and the currency will go the same way. The 40% loss of purchasing power that the pound has seen since 2020 is not going to reverse. If anything it accelerates. Thus …If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. More here.6. LeverageLeverage is difficult to measure precisely.You can look at: futures positioning on Comex, options activity, speculative flows into junior miners, retail spread betting and more. The short answer is this: gold is a crowded trade, but it is not a mania.If it were a mania, the geopolitical shock in Iran last week would have triggered violent liquidations. Instead gold held up remarkably well.Verdict: mid-cycle7. Mining equitiesMining stocks had an excellent 2025. Word is that PDAC last week (the world's largest mining conference), was the like of which had not been felt since 2011 and the last top. That is a warning sign.This chart shows the ratio of the XAU (large mining companies) to gold since 1988. On a relative basis the miners are still phenomenally under-owned, and we now have a text-book base, formed over 9-years, in place. If this ratio goes back to levels of the early 0 0s , miners will multiply many times over.But these declines began with the emergence of the ETFs and the many alternative ways to own gold without taking on individual company risk. The ratio does not have to go back 00s levels.Maybe. But that base is a thing of beauty.Typically the end of a gold bull market would coincide with massive rallies in junior miners, an exploration IPO boom and a merger-and-acquisition frenzy.We are seeing healthy signs of activity, but nothing like that yet.Verdict: mid-cycleI'm delighted to report that The Secret History of Gold - Myth, Money, Politics and Power, published by Penguin Life, comes out in the US next month. (The US version is published by Pegasus). Order yours now - via Barnes and Noble or Amazon8. The narrative - gold to $150,000?Gold got some coverage in publications like The Economist and the Financial Times last month, but the story is far from mainstream.Ask most people about de-dollarisation, Triffin's dilemma or central bank reserve diversification and you will get blank looks.However, some familiar late-cycle narratives are beginning to appear.One is that silver is being remonetised.It isn't.Silver may well be an important strategic metal, but its monetary role was as medium of exchange. That role is not coming back because we no longer use physical money. That function has been digitised.Gold, by contrast, retains its role as as store of value - a function that silver never had to anything like the same extent. Silver may have use as a speculative asset. It may well rise in price. It may even overshoot spectacularly. But it is not being remonetised. That will not happen, unless Eastenders turns into Mad Max.Another narrative that sometimes appears near major peaks is the US national debt relative to gold reserves. In 1980, headlines declared the US was “solvent again” because it could have used its gold to fully settled its debt.Today US debt is roughly $39 trillion. To settle that debt using America's 262 million ounces of gold, the gold price would need to be roughly $150,000 per ounce.When arguments like that start circulating, it means the narrative can't go much further and the cycle is close to exhaustion.We are not there yet.Verdict: mid-cycle9. Real yieldsLast but not least: real interest rates.This would be the 10-year Treasury yield minus inflation, or the 10-year TIPS yield.Gold bull markets tend to end when real yields rise sharply.In 1980, Paul Volcker pushed interest rates toward 20% and real yields surged. Gold then entered a twenty-year bear market. At the 2011 peak, real yields rose from deeply negative to positive and gold topped within months. From 2020–2022 real yields went negative again and gold surged, until they rose in 2022 and gold stalled.Today nominal yields are relatively high, but inflation remains elevated, the Fed is under pressure to ease (as are most central banks) and fiscal deficits are enormous.Real yields therefore sit around zero or slightly positive, depending on how they are measured. That is not restrictive enough to kill the gold bull market.The danger signal would be inflation falling sharply while nominal yields stay high, pushing real yields well above +2%. We are some distance from that.Verdict: mid-cycleIf you are interested in following the real yield argument, Charlie Morris is the man. He gets it better than anyone, and I heartily recommend you follow his work via his Atlas Pulse. Get your copy here - it's free.ConclusionIf gold continues rising it will pull silver and mining equities higher with it.The spike in silver last month to around $125 looked very much like a mid-cycle blow-off, and a period of consolidation is now both likely and healthy. Looking across all the indicators, most point toward a mid-cycle environment rather than a late-cycle one.What superb content. You really should upgrade.Duration and relative valuation raise some concerns, but these are just one or two of nine indicators. Everything else suggests the bull market has not yet reached its final, most speculative phase.In other words: this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.$8 to $10,000 by the end of the decade is a very real possibility.Thanks very much for being a subscriber to Flying Frisby.Until next time,DominicPS I have discussed gold largely in dollar terms, because the market is quoted in dollars. But if you are in the UK the case for owning gold has less to do with the dollar and far more to do with the pound. Sterling has already lost roughly 40% of its purchasing power since 2020, and that trend is not going to reverse. If anything it will accelerate. It's not just the ineptitude of successive governments, but unelected permablob (in this case the Treasury, the OBR, the Bank of England, the FCA et al) that actually runs the show. The system- if you can call it that - is the problem and it's not going to change. The incentives are to spend more, borrow more and debase the currency slowly over time. You cannot fix that system. But you can protect yourself from it. And that means owning some gold.DisclaimerI am not regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) or any other regulatory body as a financial advisor. Therefore, any information provided in this newsletter does not constitute regulated financial advice. It is solely an expression of opinion. Small-cap stocks are inherently risky. Please conduct your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor, if you have any doubts. Remember, markets can both rise and fall, especially in the case of small and mid-cap stocks. I am not aware of your individual financial circumstances, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

APAC mostly firmer as China returned, somewhat shrugging off the weak Wall St. finish on AI disruption concerns.DXY marginally firmer, EUR/USD directionless, while USD/JPY edged higher and above 155.00.USTs pulled back from Monday's best, Bunds remained near highs, while JGBs saw choppy action after the long weekend.Crude remained tentative amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, XAU faded while copper rallied as China returned.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Weekly, House Prices (Dec), Consumer Confidence (Feb), Dallas/Richmond Fed (Feb), Atlanta Fed GDP, NBH Policy Announcement, Speakers including ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Bailey, Lombardelli, Greene, Taylor & Pill, Fed's Goolsbee, Collins, Bostic, Waller, Cook & Barkin, Supply from UK, Italy & US, Earnings from Home Depot & Keurig Dr Pepper.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are mostly firmer, US equity futures are flat/incrementally higher.DXY is flat awaiting Retail Sales/ECI, JPY bid alongside JGB stabilisation whilst NOK gains post-inflation.Fixed rebounds from Monday's pressure into data & supply; Gilts outperform as PM Starmer pushed back on calls to resign.WTI and Brent mildly lower, XAU remains above USD 5k/oz; Copper muted heading into Chinese festive period.Looking ahead, highlights include US NFIB (Jan), Weekly ADP, ECI (Q4), Retail Sales (Dec) & EIA STEO. Speakers include Fed's Hammack & Logan, Supply from the US. Earnings from Coca-Cola, S&P, Gilead, Robinhood, Welltower, Datadog, Ford, AIG, Xylem.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

NVIDIA (NVDA) AI chip sales to China are reportedly stalled by a US security review, and Chinese customers are, meanwhile, not placing H200 chip orders.European bourses are broadly firmer, US equity futures are mixed with mild underperformance in the NQ.DXY trades flat ahead of US data, JPY underperforms as focus turns to a landslide LDP victory.Fixed income benchmarks are mixed; USTs are flat whilst Bunds are firmer.Crude-specific newsflow remains light, benchmarks retrace bid following US-Iranian tensions; Precious metals continue to rebound with spot XAU returning above USD 5k/oz.Looking ahead, highlights include US Final Composite/Services PMIs (Jan), US ADP (Jan), ISM Services (Jan), Treasury Refunding Announcement, NBP Policy Announcement, Comments from Fed's Cook, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump says he will announce his Fed pick on Friday. Reports suggest the administration is leaning towards Warsh.DXY bid, USTs lower with the yield curve steeper and US equity futures down (ES -0.8%) amid the Warsh speculation.XAU lost the USD 5k/oz handle and XAG below USD 100/oz in a pullback from recent highs and amid USD strength.Crude curtailed by the USD, and as Trump plans to meet with Iranian officialsAUD hit on metal action, JPY digests Tokyo CPI, EUR unaffected by German state CPIs and EZ GDPLooking ahead, highlights include German HICP (Jan), Canadian GDP (Dec), US PPI (Dec), Speakers including Fed's Musalem, Bowman, Miran, Waller. President Trump's Fed Chair announcement.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

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US President Trump is scheduled to deliver remarks at a GOP member retreat at 10:00EST/15:00GMT on Tuesday and will participate in a meeting at 14.30EST/19:30GMT on Tuesday.China Commerce Ministry imposes export controls on dual-use items to Japan, effective immediately.European bourses are mostly firmer; US equity futures are mixed, with the RTY under slight pressure.Mostly uneventful trade across G10s but EUR subdued post-PMI & German State CPI.Bonds initially pressured before EGBs benefitting from German State CPIs ahead of the 13:00GMT mainland print.Crude initially lower but now a touch in the green; XAU extends on Monday's gains as Copper reaches another ATH.Looking ahead, German CPI (Dec), US S&P PMI Final (Dec), Speakers including Fed's Barkin, US President Trump, Fed Discount Rate Minutes.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump announced on Saturday that the US successfully carried out a large-scale strike against Venezuela, while he added that President Maduro and his wife were captured and flown out of Venezuela.US President Trump said they are ready to stage a second strike if necessary and had assumed a second wave was needed, but now probably not.US President Trump signalled the US could widen its focus in the region to Cuba, and he will be meeting with House Republicans in a closed-door meeting on Tuesday. Further, Trump said it “sounds good” to him regarding whether there will be an operation in Colombia.European bourses are broadly in the green; US equity futures are mixed, with outperformance in the NQ. ASML +3% named top pick at Bernstein.DXY firmer on haven appeal, G10s subdued across the board to various degrees; Global fixed income slightly firmer with non-geopolitical updates somewhat light, ISM ahead.Choppy price action in the crude complex as geopolitics remain in focus; XAU gain on safe-haven demand; Copper raises following strength in the semiconductor sector.Looking ahead, highlights include US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec).Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump's administration initiated a multi-agency review of NVIDIA (NVDA) H200 licenses for sales to China, according to sources cited by Reuters.US President Trump is scheduled to make an announcement at 13:00EST/18:00GMT on Friday and will deliver remarks on the economy at 21:00EST/02:00GMT.European bourses are mixed whilst US equity futures are broadly firmer, with outperformance in the NQ.DXY is firmer, whilst the JPY underperforms; the BoJ hiked rates by 25bps as expected, though Governor Ueda avoided explicitly guiding future policy.Global fixed benchmarks generally pressured but with price action fairly muted.Crude benchmarks trade muted as EU agree on Ukraine loans; XAU trades rangebound after failing to break above USD 4350/oz.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales (Oct), EZ Consumer Confidence (Dec), US Employment Trends (Nov). Speakers include ECB's Lane & Fed's Williams.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump is to give an address to the nation on Wednesday night, live from the White House at 21:00EST (02:00GMT Thursday). White House Press Secretary said that Trump's address will be about accomplishments, while he will talk about what's to come and maybe tease new year policies.European bourses are mostly stronger this morning, with US equity futures also posting modest upside.DXY is firmer, the GBP has been hit after the UK's cooler-than-expected inflation report, which near-enough cements a BoE cut this week.Gilts outperform on the UK's data whilst USTs hold a downward bias.Crude benchmarks reverse Tuesday's losses following the blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers and reports of new Russian energy sanctions if Russia rejects the peace deal; XAU and Copper trading with slight gains.Looking ahead, highlights include Fed's Waller, Williams & Bostic, Supply from US, Earnings from Micron, New Zealand GDP (Q3).Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The BoJ Tankan survey showed sentiment of Large Manufacturers was at the highest in four years, which supports the case for a rate hike.European bourses are entirely in the green, with US equity futures also firmer; the RTY outperforms.DXY is a touch lower, whilst the JPY outperforms amidst growing bets of a BoJ hike this week and the Tankan Survey; the Kiwi underperforms after the RBNZ Governor suggested that market conditions have tightened “beyond” what the RBNZ intended.Global bonds are firmer across the board; USTs are currently firmer by c. 5 ticks.Crude benchmarks were initially firmer, but are now mildly lower as traders digest President Zelensky's potential concessions of Ukraine's NATO membership goals; XAU gains.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian CPI (Nov), US Advance Goods Trade Balance (Sep), Australian PMI (Dec), Speakers including Fed's Miran, Williams & RBA's Jones.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said they would help on security with Ukraine, and he thought they were close to a deal.US President Trump said that it is going to start on land soon regarding Venezuela; the US is reportedly preparing to seize more ships transporting Venezuelan oil.European bourses are in the green whilst US equity futures are mixed, and with underperformance in the tech-heavy NQ as Broadcom falls 4.9% in post-earnings.DXY is a little firmer, GBP incrementally pressured on a poor UK GDP report.Global bonds are mildly pressured, scaling back recent upside.XAU continues to trend higher above USD 4300/oz; Copper pulling back from another ATH.Looking ahead, highlights include Fed's Paulson, Hammack, Goolsbee, Schmid & Miran.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses opened lower but now marginally firmer, US equity futures are in the red, with underperformance in the NQ following Oracle (-11%) earnings.DXY initially attempted to pare post-FOMC pressure, but now flat, CHF little moved to the SNB announcement, but gained on the presser, the Aussie is pressured post-jobs data.USTs continue to strengthen in the aftermath of the FOMC, whilst Bunds pull back from highs.Crude benchmarks are selling off despite a bullish IEA report; XAU pares back FOMC gains; Copper pulls back from ATHs.Looking ahead, highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims (6 Dec, w/e), OPEC MOMR, Supply from the US, Earnings from Broadcom, Costco & lululemon.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US Trade Representative Greer said China's rare earths continue to flow and expects to sign more trade deals over the coming weeks.US President Trump is to kick off the final round of Fed Chair interviews this week, while senior administration officials said Kevin Hassett remains in pole position to succeed Powell as Fed Chair, according to the FT.European bourses are broadly lower, with US equity futures mildly in the red as markets await the FOMC; The Information reported that China is weighing NVIDIA chip purchases in an emergency meeting.USD is essentially flat and holds around the 99.20 mark, with G10s also broadly unchanged.Global bonds are lower, OATs fail to benefit after the French National Assembly passed the social security budget.Crude rangebound, XAU subdued ahead of FOMC rate decision; Copper holding onto earlier gains.Looking ahead, highlights include US Employment Costs (Q3), BoC/FOMC/BCB Rate Announcement. Speakers include BoC's Macklem & Fed's Powell. Earnings from Oracle, Adobe & Synopsys.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses attempt to move higher after initial pressure, US equity futures trade with modest gains.USD is flat, EUR and NZD manage to hold towards the top of the G10 pile.Global bonds pressured, Bunds hit on hawkish remarks via ECB's Schnabel, who said that she is 'comfortable' on bets that the next move will be a hike, albeit not any time soon.Crude benchmarks retreat despite a lack of drivers, XAU grinds higher and 3M LME Copper benefits after positive Chinese exports data, though Imports disappointed.Looking ahead, highlights include ECB's Cipollone, BoE's Taylor & Lombardelli, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are broadly firmer, alongside modest strength across US equity futures; Marvell (+10%) benefits following its upbeat outlook for data-centre growth.DXY is softer and towards the round 99.00 mark as Trump referred to Hassett as the "potential" next Fed Chair, GBP top G10 performer, whilst CHF was briefly pressured post-CPI.Fixed benchmarks firmer but off highs as crude climbs. US yields steeper on Trump's Fed commentary.Crude grinds higher as traders digest the lack of progress from the Putin-Witkoff meeting; XAU trades rangebound; Copper extends to new ATHs.Looking ahead, US Services/Composite PMI Final (Nov), US ISM Services PMI (Nov), ADP National Employment (Nov), Import Prices (Sep), Industrial Production (Sep), NBP Policy Announcement, Speakers including BoE's Mann, ECB's Lagarde, Earnings from Salesforce, Snowflake, Dollar Tree.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses started the morning flat/modestly firmer, but have since sauntered to session highs; US equity futures also modestly firmer.OpenAI CEO Altman declares a code red to combat threats to ChatGPT and plans to delay other initiatives such as advertising, according to The Information.DXY is modestly firmer, AUD initially outperformed after ANZ scaled back rate cut bets for 2026, but is now flat amidst USD-strength, USD/JPY rises back towards 156.00.Bonds are flat/modestly lower, Bunds little moved to EZ HICP whilst Gilts lag.Crude essentially flat in rangebound trade, XAU slips below USD 4.2k/oz.Looking ahead, highlights include US RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism, Earnings from Marvell & CrowdStrike.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly firmer following the Wall St. handover, though China was mixed amid reports of Trump selling NVIDIA chips to China.Fed's Collins says she has not made up her mind on December. Treasury Secretary Bessent said prices are getting better.DXY contained, EUR/USD bounced from 1.15, Cable rangebound, USD/JPY firmer but limited in holiday trade.USTs and Bunds contained after the moves seen on Friday; Crude is uneventful, XAU continues to fade.US' Rubio said good progress had been made re. Ukraine, and none of the outstanding issues are insurmountable.Looking ahead, highlights include German Ifo (Nov), US National Activity Index (Oct), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov), Speakers including ECB's Cipollone, Elderson & Lagarde, Supply from the US.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US Secretary of State Rubio said good progress had been made re. Ukraine, and none of the outstanding issues are insurmountable.European bourses opened stronger, but sentiment has waned a touch in recent trade; US equity futures are mixed.DXY is marginally subdued, EUR gains a touch amidst geopolitical progress whilst the JPY lags.Lacklustre trade across fixed income with USTs flat whilst Bunds are firmer by a handful of ticks.Oil complex has been pressured by progress on Ukrainian peace talks, XAU trades rangebound.Looking ahead, highlights include US National Activity Index (Oct), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov), Speakers including ECB's Cipollone, Elderson & Lagarde, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The Last Trade: Bitcoin sentiment has cratered after a 30% drawdown, but the thesis hasn't changed. Cycles are dead, liquidity is turning, and gold's strength signals what's next for BTC. Fundamentals are stronger than ever as custody, rails, and institutional demand quietly build beneath the noise.---

JPMorgan and Standard Chartered no longer expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates in December, vs prior forecast of a 25bp cut.European bourses entirely in the red, with AEX underperforming as Tech plays catch-up to Thursday's NVIDIA losses; US equity futures are mixed today, with NVIDIA -1.5% in pre-market trade.DXY is mildly firmer, JPY outperforms on haven flows, jawboning and data metrics which play in favour of further BoJ normalisation. Bloomberg reported that Japan may intervene before USD/JPY reaches 160.Bonds firmer, benefiting from the risk tone; additional impetus from European and UK data.Crude complex pressured on constructive Russia/Ukraine reports, XAU is mildly lower.Looking ahead, US Flash PMIs (Nov), US Real Weekly Earnings (Sep), Canadian Retail Sales (Sep), US Uni. of Michigan (Nov), Moody's on the UK & Italy, ECB's Nagel; Fed's Williams, Barr, Jefferson, Logan; SNB's Schlegel.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

China is reportedly mulling new property stimulus measures, including mortgage subsidies, according to Bloomberg sources.European and US equity futures are stronger across the board, with sentiment boosted after strong NVIDIA results and as CEO Huang shrugged off “AI bubble” woes.DXY is firmer into the September NFP report, JPY unreactive to further jawboning.WTI and Brent edge higher, with some strength seen after Russia's Kremlin said no peace talks with the US are taking place; XAU dips a touch.JGBs lag with stimulus in focus, USTs bearish as the data fog continues.Looking ahead, Highlights include, EZ Consumer Confidence Flash (Nov), US NFP (Sep), US Jobless Claims (w/e 15 Nov), New Zealand Trade Balance (Oct), Australian Flash PMIs (Nov), Japanese Nationwide CPI (Oct), SARB Policy Announcement, Fed's Cook, Barr, Hammack, Paulson, Miran, Goolsbee; BoE's Dhingra, Mann. Supply from the US. Earnings from Gap and Walmart.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, according to Axios sources; Politico reported that US officials are close to unveiling a major new peace agreement with Russia to end the Ukraine conflict.The White House confirmed that US President Trump is set to speak at the US-Saudi investment forum on Wednesday at 12:00 EST (17:00 GMT) in Washington.US Treasury Secretary Bessent said US President Trump may announce the next Fed Chair before Christmas, via Fox News.European bourses are trading on either side of the unchanged mark, whilst US equity futures gain ahead of NVIDIA.USD is modestly firmer into FOMC Minutes, USD/JPY rises above 156.00 after Finance Minister Katayama said there were no specific discussions on FX with BoJ Governor Ueda.Bonds initially bid by a subdued risk tone, but now hold a downward bias sentiment improves; Gilts briefly boosted by CPI, but then come under marked pressured.Crude complex is modestly lower with Zelensky's delegation in Turkey, XAU returns above USD 4100/oz.Looking ahead, US International Trade (Aug), FOMC Minutes, Fed's Williams, Logan, Barkin, Miran; BoE's Dhingra, supply from the US. Earnings from NVIDIA.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US jobless claims at 232k in the October 18th week, via DOL; continuing claims 1.957mln.European bourses are entirely in the red, US equity futures are modestly lower.USD is choppy amidst early release of weekly jobless claims, JPY digests more verbal intervention.Bonds are benefiting from the risk tone, with some modest price action seen on a surprise jobless claims release.Crude and Copper continue to be dragged by equity selloff as XAU bounces at USD 4k/oz.Looking ahead, US ADP Weekly Estimate, US Factory Orders (Aug), US Durable Goods (Aug), and Japanese Trade Balance. Speakers include BoE's Pill, Dhingra; Fed's Barr, Barkin.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses initially opened flat, but have since slipped into the red; US equity futures are mixed.DXY is slightly firmer, whilst Antipodeans slip as the risk tone deteriorates a touch.Bonds are firmer amid the softer European tone but largely awaiting a packed speakers docket, and data later this week.Crude complex started the session in the red, but has since reversed on geopolitical updates; XAU marginally subdued.Looking ahead, highlights include US NY Fed Manufacturing, Construction Spending, Canadian CPI. Speakers include Fed's Williams, Jefferson, Kashkari, Waller; ECB's Cipollone; BoE's Mann; BoC's Kozicki.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US House to vote on a bill which could end the shutdown and keep the government funded through January 2026.European bourses are broadly firmer and continue to make highs, US equity futures also gain with the RTY (+1%) outperforming.USD is firmer ahead of a slew of Fed speakers, GBP pressured on political uncertainty; JPY lags.Global bonds are softer given the risk tone, Gilts lag with PM Starmer pressured into PMQs.Crude benchmarks pull back after Tuesday's gains, XAU remains rangebound.Looking ahead, highlights include BoC Minutes (Oct), EIA STEO, OPEC MOMR, Speakers including ECB's de Guindos, Fed's Paulson, Bostic, Williams, Waller, Miran, Collins; US Treasury Secretary Bessent. Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

China is reportedly devising a plan to keep the US military from getting its rare earth magnets and is considering a ‘validated end-user' system to fast-track certain export licenses, according to WSJ.European bourses firmer across the board, with outperformance in the FTSE 100; US equity futures are modestly lower.NVIDIA slips -1.5% after Softbank sells stake and following poor CoreWeave results.GBP slides on dismal UK jobs, EUR unreactive to ZEW; DXY treads water.Gilts soar post-jobs data which raises the odds of a December BoE cut; USTs cash bond trade shut on account of Veterans' Day.XAU peaks just shy of USD 4150/oz as continued attacks on Russian refineries drive crude benchmarks higher.Highlights include Weekly Prelim Estimate ADP, Speakers including BoE's Dhingra, RBA's Jones.Holidays: US Veterans' Day; Canadian Remembrance Day.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US is to block NVIDIA's (NVDA) sale of scaled-back AI chips to China, according to The Information.European bourses opened firmer but ultimately conformed to the subdued risk tone, US equity futures also mildly in the red.DXY bid awaiting UoM, trading around 99.78; Kiwi underperforms.Bunds were initially hit by the US risk tone, EGBs then slipped on German data, no reaction to the deteriorating European tone.Commodities rebound from Thursday's equity-led selloff; XAU firmer and holds above USD 4k/oz.Looking ahead, Canadian Jobs, NY Fed SCE, US University of Michigan Prelim, Speakers including Fed's Jefferson and Miran, BoE's Pill, ECB's Elderson & Nagel.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

RBA kept Cash Rate unchanged at 3.60%, as expected; judged some of the increase in underlying inflation in Q3 was due to temporary factors.European bourses are lower across the board with sentiment downbeat; US equity futures are in the red, NQ -1.3%.DXY briefly returned to a 100 handle, GBP slipped post-Reeves, who failed to reiterate her tax-related pledges, Antipodeans lag.Gilts outperform amid tax rise speculation, USTs await Fed speak.WTI and Brent slip to lows given the risk tone, but XAU fails to benefit and sits sub-4k/oz.Looking ahead, US RCM/TIPP, New Zealand Jobs, RBNZ FSR, BoJ Minutes (Sep), French Assembly PLF Vote, Speakers including ECB's Nagel and Balz, BoE's Breeden & Fed's Bowman. Earnings from Fresenius MC, Ferrari; AMD, Supermicro, Marathon, Pfizer & Uber.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are firmer following constructive EU-China trade developments, US equity futures also gain.USD fractionally higher and now eyes 100.00, CHF hampered by CPI.Bonds are relatively contained into a session of central bank speak and the ISM Manufacturing series.Crude reverses initial gains after OPEC+ opted to raise output again by a modest 137k bpd in December before pausing for Q1 2026; XAU essentially flat, whilst base metals digest disappointing Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI.Looking ahead, highlights include US Final Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Speakers including Fed's Daly, Cook, ECB's Lane & BoC's Macklem, Supply from BoE Gilt Sale (long-term), US Financing Estimates.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Further positive trade rhetoric from the US, mega-cap earnings in focus; AMZN +12.9% after-hours, AAPL +2.7%European futures point to a slightly softer open, US futures rebounded from the Powell pressure amid earnings, NQ leadsDXY paused for breath, EUR/USD beneath 1.16, Antipodeans lackluster after a disappointing Chinese Manufacturing PMIFixed benchmarks subdued, weighed on in part by sizable Meta supplyCrude futures lacked demand, XAU tested the USD 4k/oz mark to the downside, base metals rangeboundLooking ahead, highlights include German Import Prices (Sep), Retail Sales (Sep), EZ Flash HICP (Oct), Italian CPI, Dallas Fed (Sep), Chicago PMI (Oct), (Suspended Releases: US PCE, Employment Costs), ECB Bulletin, Speakers including Fed's Logan, Bostic, Miran & Schmid, Earnings from Exxon Mobil, Chevron, AbbVie, AON & Intesa SanpaoloClick for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Fed cut by 25bps as expected, subject to 50bps and U/C dissent, announced it will end the balance sheet drawdown.Chair Powell struck a hawkish tone around December, weighing on stocks, USTs & XAU while the USD benefited.Trump said the meeting with Xi was amazing & lots of decisions were made, he rated the meeting a 12/10.BoJ held rates, Takata & Tamura dissented, favouring a hike; support seen in JGBs afterwards as the statement avoided any overtly hawkish signal.European futures point to a positive cash open, US futures are gradually rebounding following Powell and the first Mag 7 numbers; GOOGL +7% after-hours, MSFT -3%, META -6%Crude benchmarks faded some of the gains seen after the EIA report, XAU hit by Powell but off lows, base metals followed the risk tone.Looking ahead, highlights include Spanish Flash HICP (Oct), German Unemployment (Sep), Flash GDP (Q3), Prelim. CPI (Oct), EZ Final Consumer Confidence (Oct), Japanese Tokyo CPI (Oct) & Unemployment Rate (Sep), (Suspended Releases: US GDP & PCE (Q3), Weekly Claims), Events: ECB Policy Announcement, Comments from BoJ Governor Ueda, ECB President Lagarde, Fed's Logan & Bowman, Supply from Italy.Earnings from Amazon, Apple, Coinbase, Reddit, MicroStrategy, Cloudflare, Riot Platforms, Eli Lilly, Merck, Comcast, Roblox, Mastercard, Standard Chartered, Shell, Kion, Lufthansa, Volkswagen, Puma & ING.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Trump said the meeting with Xi was amazing & lots of decisions were made, he rated the meeting a 12/10; US-China agree 1-year trade truce.European bourses are broadly lower, US equity futures are mixed; META -8.8%, MSFT -2.3%, GOOGL +6.9% post-earnings.JPY struggles after BoJ kept rates steady and avoided any overt hawkish commentary; Ueda said no pre-set idea about timing of next rate hike. USD manages to hold onto post-FOMC spoils.Global benchmarks (ex-JGBs) remain soft post-FOMC; EGBs pressured into the ECB.XAU returns back above USD 4k/oz following hawkish Fed cut, crude remain rangebound.Looking ahead, Looking ahead, highlights include Japanese Tokyo CPI (Oct) & Unemployment Rate (Sep), (Suspended Releases: US GDP & PCE (Q3), Weekly Claims), Events: ECB Policy Announcement, Comments from ECB President Lagarde, Fed's Logan & Bowman.Earnings from Amazon, Apple, Coinbase, Reddit, MicroStrategy, Cloudflare, Riot Platforms, Eli Lilly, Comcast, Roblox, Mastercard.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said the meeting with Chinese President Xi will be three hours long before returning back to the US; says things will work out very well with Xi on Thursday.European and US equity futures are mixed; NQ outperforms, boosted by NVIDIA as it nears USD 5tln market cap.USD is firmer in the run-up to FOMC, AUD leads as hot CPI dashes RBA rate cut hopes.Fixed income contained awaiting the FOMC, with a mild bearish bias potentially stemming from positive trade updates.XAU returns back above USD 4k/oz, LME Copper reaches new ATHs amid positive US-China trade optimismUS Pending Homes (Sep), FOMC & BoC Policy Announcements; US President Trump to meet South Korea's Leader, Speakers including Fed Chair Powell & BoC's Macklem, Supply from the US.Earnings from Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, ServiceNow, Starbucks, eBay, Verizon, Boeing, CVS, Caterpillar, Etsy, Centene, Phillips 66.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump and Japanese PM Takaichi signed an agreement on the US-Japan alliance and framework for securing the supply of critical minerals and rare earths.European bourses are mostly lower; ES/NQ are flat, whilst the RTY is marginally lower ahead of a slew of earnings.USD flat/lower, JPY boosted on US-Japan trade developments and mild haven allure; GBP lags a touch.Bonds are firmer given the risk tone; USTs await supply.XAU briefly dipped under USD 3.9k/oz with base metals also broadly in the red; crude complex lower with some focus on reports that OPEC+ is looking at another oil production hike.Looking ahead, US Richmond Fed (Oct), US CaseShiller Home Prices (Aug), US Consumer Confidence (Oct), Supply from the US.Earnings from Visa, Electronic Arts, PPG Industries, SoFi, PayPal.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US and China reached a framework for Trump-Xi talks this week. US tariff increase on China averted, China was said to have agreed to delay a new rare earth exports licensing regime for a year.The US is to immediately raise tariffs on Canada by another 10%.US President Trump said he won't meet with Russian President Putin until he thinks they have a peace plan.European bourses firmer but off best levels; US equity futures soar as traders digest the latest US-China trade commentary.High-beta FX propped up by US-Sino optimism, CAD overlooks US tariffs.USTs/Bunds knocked by the risk tone and reports of EU issuance, OATs outperform as Moody's maintained France's rating at Aa3, but revised the outlook to negative from stable.Positive US-China optimism weigh on XAU and lifts Copper near ATHs; Crude was initially boosted by the risk-tone but has since slipped into the red.Looking ahead, highlights include US Dallas Fed (Oct), Suspended Releases: US Durable Goods (Sep), Atlanta Fed GDPNow, Supply from US, Earnings including NXP Semiconductor.UK clocks moved back an hour during the weekend and reverted to GMT, which means there will just be a 4-hour time difference between London and New York for the week until US clocks change on Sunday 2nd November.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US to probe China's 2020 trade compliance while Trump has "terminated" all trade talks with Canada.European bourses opened firmer but now off best levels whilst US equity futures are in the green; INTC +8.3%.USD slightly higher into CPI, EUR boosted on German PMIs but now pared.Bunds & Gilts hit by PMIs, OATs look to Moody's, USTs await CPI.Crude gives back recent strength, XAU also on the backfoot around USD 4.06k/oz.Looking ahead, US Flash PMIs (Oct), US CPI (Sep), CBR Policy Announcement, European Council (23rd-24th), Moody's Credit Review on France, Speakers including ECB's Cipollone & Nagel, Earnings from Procter & Gamble.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US to probe China's 2020 trade compliance while Trump has "terminated" all trade talks with CanadaDespite this, APAC bourses firmer as the region focuses on confirmation of a Trump-Xi meeting next weekDXY firmer but rangebound, USD/JPY tested 153.00Fixed benchmarks remain subdued, USTs await CPICrude pulled back from Thursday's rally, XAU is indecisiveLooking ahead, highlights include UK Retail Sales (Sep), EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs (Oct), US CPI (Sep), (Suspended Releases: US Build Permits & US New Home Sales), CBR Policy Announcement, European Council (23rd-24th), Moody's Credit Review on France, Speakers including ECB's Cipollone & Nagel, Earnings from NatWest, Porsche, Sanofi, Eni, Saab, Procter & GambleClick for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

China published fourth plenum communique: approved five-year plan, and aiming for a 'big increase' in the level of tech self-reliance.European equities are mostly higher, whilst US equity futures are mixed; TSLA -3%, IBM -7.2%, Quantum stocks +10%.DXY is flat, Antipodeans lead whilst havens lag in quiet trade.Bonds are pressured as the risk tone sees pockets of improvement; decent UK auction sparked little move in Gilts at the time.New Russian sanctions push crude benchmarks higher, XAU continues to consolidate.Looking ahead, Existing Home Sales (Sep), EZ Consumer Confidence Flash (Oct), Canadian Retail Sales (Aug), Australian Flash PMIs (Oct), (Suspended Releases: US Weekly Claims), CBRT Policy Announcement, CCP 4th Plenum (20th-23rd), European Council (23rd-24th). Speakers including ECB's Lane, Fed's Bowman & Barr (Fed on Blackout). Earnings from Intel, American Airlines, Freeport McMoRan, Blackstone, T-Mobile US & Valero Energy.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he will discuss a lot of things with Chinese President Xi in two weeks; however, he added that the meeting might not happenUS futures are marginally firmer, while European futures point to a slightly lower cash openDXY softened overnight, EUR and GBP lifted modestly off Tuesday's trough, USD/JPY contained and back below 152.00Fixed benchmarks rangebound into supplyCrude underpinned by a Russian strike on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, XAU continued to falter to the USD 4k/oz mark but has since bouncedLooking ahead, highlights include UK CPI (Sep), CCP 4th Plenum (20th-23rd), BoJ SLOOS, Speakers including ECB's de Guindos, Lagarde & Fed's Barr, Supply from Germany & US, Earnings from SAP, Barclays, Akzo Nobel, Tesla, IBM, Kinder Morgan, Alcoa, Lam Research, GE Vernova, Hilton, AT&T & Thermo Fisher.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are broadly lower, but FTSE 100 outperforms after UK inflation; US equity futures are modestly weaker.USD is flat & GBP hit after region's softer-than-expected inflation report, which has boosted bets for a cut in December.USTs are flat/slightly firmer ahead of supply, Gilts gap higher after CPI, Bunds marginally pressured after yet another poor auction.Initial morning bounce back in gold has faded with XAU now lower on the session; crude complex is on a firmer footing.Looking ahead, CCP 4th Plenum (20th-23rd), Speakers including ECB's de Guindos, Lagarde & Fed's Barr, Supply from the US, Earnings from SAP, Tesla, IBM, Kinder Morgan, Alcoa, Lam Research, GE Vernova, Hilton, AT&T & Thermo Fisher.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European and US equity futures are lower across the board, with the US regional banking fears weighing on sentiment; KRE -2% in pre-market trade.DXY is a little lower; typical havens (JPY, CHF) benefit from the risk-tone whilst the Aussie lags.Global fixed paper driven higher as traders remain wary on US regional banks.Crude continues Thursday's selling, XAU choppy amid debt concerns.Looking ahead, Speakers including BoE's Pill, Greene & Breeden, Fed's Musalem, ECB's Nagel, Earnings from Ally Financial, SLB, American Express, State Street. Suspended Releases: US Building Permits/Housing Starts (Sep), Industrial Production (Sep).Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said they are in a trade war with China, and if the US don't have tariffs, they don't have national security, while he stated that tariffs are a very important tool for defence.European bourses are mostly higher, SMI bid post-Nestle results and NQ outperforms after strong Q3 TSMC earnings.USD mixed vs. peers, GBP leads whilst AUD was pressured by a weak jobs report.USTs are firmer, fleeting upside in OATs after PM Lecornu survives the 1st no confidence vote; now awaiting the 2nd vote.Crude benchmarks trade rangebound despite rising geopolitical tensions, XAU forms another new ATH.Looking ahead, highlights include Philly Fed (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDP, Comments from Fedʼs Waller, Barkin, Barr, Miran, Bowman & Kashkari, ECBʼs Lane & Lagarde, BoCʼs Macklem, BoEʼs Greene & Mann.Earnings from Bank of New York Mellon, KeyCorp, Charles Schwab, United Airlines, ABB & Bankinter.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are in the green; LVMH +14% & ASML +3.6% both gain post-earnings; US equity futures also rise.USD losses extend into a second session, EUR remains underpinned by French optimism.USTs incrementally firmer, OATs gain as traders digest the latest pension reform suspension.XAU breaks USD 4200/oz, crude benchmarks muted amid heightened trade tensions.Looking ahead, highlights include NY Fed Manufacturing (Oct), Cleveland Fed CPI (Sep), US Military Pay Date, Fed Beige Book, (Suspended Releases: US CPI), BoE's Breeden, ECB's Lane & Lagarde, Fed's Miran, Bostic, Waller & Schmid, RBA's Bullock & Kent.Earnings from Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Dollar Tree & Progressive.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

China's MOFCOM announced that it is taking countermeasures against five US-linked firms; said the US cannot have talks while threatening new restrictions.French PM Lecornu's government is to present a budget aiming to reduce the deficit to 4.7% by end-2026, according to La Tribune.Equities lower across the board, as markets digest the latest trade-related escalations by China on the US; traders also await a number of US earnings.JPY benefits from haven bid, GBP hit by soft jobs, Antipodeans dented by risk-tone.Global paper firmer amid the weakened risk tone, Gilts lead after data, OATs await PM Lecornu.Crude benchmarks fall as Middle East tensions ease, XAU pulls back from new ATHs.Looking ahead, US NFIB (Sep), Fed Discount Rate Minutes, Speakers including ECB's Villeroy, Kocher, BoE's Bailey & Taylor, Fed's Powell, Waller, Collins & Bowman, BoC's Rogers, RBA's Hunter & Hauser, RBNZ's Conway. Earnings from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi, Wells Fargo, Johnson & Johnson & LVMH.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

China reportedly launched a customs crackdown on NVIDIA (NVDA) AI chips, according to FT; US President Trump said maybe they will have to stop importing massive amounts from China.China's Transport Ministry announces plans to impose special port fees on US vessels; fees effective from 14th October.BLS is preparing to release a September US CPI report despite the shutdown, according to the NYT. Bloomberg sources suggested staff have been recalled for the preparation of the publication by the end of the month.European bourses are mixed and now generally hold a negative bias, US equity futures are slightly higher.DXY eases after four days of gains whilst JPY sees volatility on the 26-year-old coalition collapse.USTs gain whilst OATs lead, awaiting the French PM announcement.WTI/Brent are on the backfoot as the Gaza ceasefire plan; XAU is marginally higher.Looking ahead, Canadian Employment Report (Sep), US Uni. of Michigan Prelim. (Oct), Chinese M2/New Yuan Loans (Sep), Speakers including Fed's Daly, Goolsbee & Musalem.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

China's government announced export controls on rare earth materials.Hamas-Israel agreed to a Gaza ceasefire deal; conflicting reports whether the ceasefire is in effect, though the Israel Foreign Minister confirmed that it is.European bourses are mixed whilst US equity futures trade around the unchanged mark.DXY grinds higher amid continued NZD losses and a heavy GBP.OATs outperform as the odds of fresh legislative elections diminish, USTs await Fed speak.Crude benchmarks slightly higher despite Gaza ceasefire deal, XAU takes a breather.Looking ahead, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI, ECB Minutes (Sep), Eurogroup Meeting, Banxico Minutes, Speakers including, ECB's Lane, BoC's Rogers, Fed Chair Powell, Bowman, Barr & Kashkari, Supply from US, Earnings from Delta Air & PepsiCo.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

EU sees new US trade demands hollowing out deal struck by US President Trump, according to Bloomberg citing sources.European bourses are broadly firmer but with ASML (-1.7%) weighing on the AEX; US equity futures are modestly higher.USD continues to rally, boosted by a weak JPY and NZD; the Kiwi is the clear underperformer after the RBNZ delivered a jumbo 50bps cut and left the door open for more rate reductions.Global paper moves higher, OATs outperform, awaiting French PM Lecornu later.XAU topped the USD 4,000/oz mark, crude is continuing to rebound as China is set to re-enter the market tomorrow.Looking ahead, NBP Policy Announcements, FOMC Minutes (Sep), Speakers including BoE's Pill, ECB's Elderson & Lagarde, Fed's Musalem, Barr, Goolsbee & Kashkari, NVIDIA CEO Huang, French PM Lecornu, Supply from US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses and US futures are firmer into a quieter than initially scheduled session on account of the gov't shutdown, ES +0.3%.DXY underpressure, down to a 97.70 trough. JPY is the relative laggard after remarks from Ueda, NZD continues to climb.USTs await ISM Services, Bunds unreactive to PMI revisions and remarks from Lagarde re. Knot. Gilts are attentive to the OBR's first forecast round.Crude saw fleeting upside on Hamas asking for more time to consult on Trump's Gaza plan, XAU pauses for breath.Looking ahead, US Final Composite PMIs (Sep), ISM Services (Sep), ECB's Schnabel, Fed's Williams, Jefferson, BoE's Bailey.Due to the US government shutdown, the following data will not be released: US NFP (Sep).Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US Government has officially gone into a shutdown. Weighing on the general risk tone in the early morning and the USD.European bourses have since bounce and extended to highs, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%; Healthcare leading. Stateside, futures remain lower awaiting data, ES -0.3%.DXY delved as low as 97.46 before recovering modestly, JPY tops the leaderboard, GBP & EUR both firmer though EUR losing some steam more recently.USTs contained awaiting data and shutdown updates, Bunds hit by soft supply, Gilts lag on Reeves.Crude initially steady but under increasing pressure this morning, XAU has resumed its ascent.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP (Sep), ISM Manufacturing (Sep), Atlanta Fed GDP, BoC Minutes, Fedʼs Barkin, ECBʼs Elderson, de Guindos, Rehn, BoCʼs Rogers.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk