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S&P futures are pointing to a flat open today, up +0.1%. Asian markets traded mixed on Wednesday. The Nikkei closed flat, while the Hang Seng fell (1.4%), weighed down by weakness in tech and property stocks. European markets are marginally higher in early trades. The U.S. and China concluded two days of trade talks in Stockholm without significant breakthroughs but described the discussions as constructive. Key issues included U.S. concerns over China's purchases of sanctioned Iranian and Russian crude, industrial overcapacity, and rare earths trade, while China raised concerns over fentanyl tariffs and export controls. No commitments were made on structural reforms or rebalancing China's economy. Companies Mentioned: Anthropic, Kraken, Intercontinental Exchange

Wall Street closed higher with the S&P500 posting its 5th straight record close as investors digested a strong start to earnings season in the US and trade developments in the form of a landmark trade agreement with Japan. The S&P500 rose 0.4% on Friday to post its 14th record close of the year, the Nasdaq added 0.24% and the Dow Jones ended the day up 0.47%. Both Alphabet and Verizon rallied last week on the back of better-than-expected earnings results with rallies of 4% and 5% respectively over the last trading week.In Europe on Friday markets closed mostly lower following Trump's remarks saying there is a '50-50' chance of a deal being done with the EU before his self-imposed August 1 deadline. The STOXX 600 fell 0.2%, Germany's DAX lost 0.3%, the French CAC added 0.2% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.2%.Across the APAC region on Friday markets closed mostly lower as investors assessed recent trade developments. Japan's Nikkei lost 0.88%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.09%, India's Nifty 50 declined 0.9% and South Korea's Kospi Index bucked the trend to close 0.18% higher.Locally on Friday the ASX200 posted a 0.5% loss on Friday as a sharp sell-off in materials, financials and healthcare stocks offset strength among energy and tech stocks. For the week, Australia's key index lost 1.03%.The banks extended their sell-off on Friday as investors continued profit taking from the sector that ran the hottest over the last financial year. CBA (ASX:CBA) fell over 5% over the last trading week while NAB (ASX:NAB)declined over 4%, Westpac (ASX:WBC) fell over 3% and ANZ (ASX:ANZ) lost 1%.Regal Partners (ASX:RPL) shares jumped over 9% on Friday after the specialist alternative investment manager reported a 7% rise in funds under management for the June quarter with net inflows at around $600m for the quarter. What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 1.45% lower at US$65.07/barrel, gold is down 0.93% at US$3336.98/ounce and iron ore is down 0.03% at US$98.55/tonne.The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 65.75 US cents, 97.09 Japanese Yen, 48.79 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.Ahead of Monday's trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down just 0.06%. Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC) from a buy to a hold and have reduced the 12-month price target on the coal miner from $7.10 to $6.90 following the release of Q4 results out of the company. FY25 guidance was met, Group production and sales met the upper half of the guidance range and unaudited unit costs, and capex were below guidance. The company increased debt though following the first payment for the BMA acquisition and Narrabri undertook an 8-week longwall maintenance period during FY25 which is expected to be overcome in FY26. The move to a hold rating is due to recent share price appreciation.And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Gentrack (ASX:GTK) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 67-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $9.72 to the range of $7.90 to $8.30 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed mostly higher on Tuesday with the S&P500 resetting its record high as the major average rose 0.06%, while the Dow Jones climbed 0.4%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.39%. Investors continued shifting focus from trade war developments to robust earnings results.In Europe overnight markets closed lower for a third day as investors digested earnings results from some of the largest companies in the region. The STOXX 600 fell 0.5%, Germany's DAX lost 1.2%, the French CAC declined 0.7% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day flat.Across the Asia region on Tuesday, markets closed mixed again with Japan's Nikkei falling 0.11%, while China's CSI index added 0.82%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.54% and South Korea's Kospi index ended the day down 1.27%. Shares in SoftBank group surged 6% after reports emerged that the Japanese investment firm is set to build a small data centre by the end of the year.Locally on Tuesday, the ASX 200 started the day with a strong rally before easing in afternoon trade to end the session up just 0.1% after the latest RBA meeting minutes were released outlining the cautious approach to rate cuts taken by the RBA as they want to see the quarterly inflation reading before making any moves, especially amid the volatility of tariffs.Ramelius Resources (ASX:RMS) soared almost 8% on Tuesday in its biggest one-day rise in 15-weeks on the rallying gold spot price and after the Supreme Court of WA approved the company's $2.4bn acquisition of Spartan Resources.Investors continued selling out of the big banks again yesterday amid stretched valuations. CBA (ASX:CBA) fell 3.1%, while NAB (ASX:NAB), Westpac (ASX:WBC) and ANZ (ASX:ANZ) lost 2.7%, 1.3% and 0.8% respectively. Most traded securities:The most traded investments by Bell Direct clients yesterday were led by BHP (ASX:BHP)Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX:VAS)CSL (ASX:CSL)What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.78% lower at US$65.44/barrel, gold is up 0.87% at US$3425/ounce, and iron ore is up 0.64% at US$97.84/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.57 U.S. cents, 96.13 Japanese yen, 48.29 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.Ahead of the midweek trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.45% tracking wall street's majority rally overnight.Trading ideas:Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Frontier Digital Ventures (ASX:FDV) to $0.63 from $0.54 and maintain a speculative buy rating on the online marketplace focused investment company. The analyst sees there are multiple potential catalysts for a potential share price re-rating including improving macro backdrop for emerging market investment, positive growth forecasts for FDV, and potential portfolio monetisation/price discovery events to unlock shareholder value.And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Perseus Mining (ASX:PRU) following the formation of a pattern over the period of 6-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $3.67 to the range of $3.89 to $3.95 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed with records across 2 of the 3 major averages on Monday as optimism around earnings overshadowed investor fears of the latest tariff developments. The S&P500 rose 0.14% to close over 6300 for the first time, the Nasdaq added 0.38% to also post a record close and the Dow jones ended the day down just 0.04%. This second quarter earnings season has started very strong in the U.S. with Verizon shares popping 4% yesterday following a Q2 earnings beat while Alphabet added over 2% ahead of its earnings out after the closing bell on Wednesday.In Europe overnight, markets closed mixed to start the new trading week amid tariff uncertainty. The STOXX 600 fell 0.1%, Germany's DAX closed flat, the French CAC fell 0.3% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.2%. Ryan Air shares rose 6% on Monday after the airline posted a 128% rise in Q1 profit which topped market expectations.Across the Asia region on Monday, markets closed mixed as China held its key 1 and 5 year loan prime rates steady despite the struggling economic recovery in the region. China's CSI index rose 0.67%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.57%, Japan's Nikkei fell 0.21% and South Korea's Kospi index ended the day up 0.71%. Locally to start the new trading week, investors were in profit taking mode after the key index reset its record high to end the last trading week, leading to a 1.02% decline at the closing bell on Monday. Stocks that have run hot over the last 12-months like the big banks and some gold stocks came under pressure yesterday. Energy and Materials stocks were the only sectors to finish the day in the green while financials stocks took the biggest hit to start the new week 2.26% lower.Block Inc (ASX:XYZ) soared over 11% yesterday on news the company is entering the S&P500 from this Wednesday after Chevron acquired Hess Corp which left room for Block to enter the major US index. AMP (ASX:AMP) also jumped 9.3% after the company released a strong Q2 update including superannuation positive net inflows for the first time since 2017.Most traded securities:The most traded investments by Bell Direct clients to start the new week were led by:DroneShield (ASX:DRO) BHP (ASX:BHP)Mesoblast (ASX:MSB)What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.56% lower at US$66.97/barrel, gold is up 1.4% at US$3397/ounce and iron ore is up 0.04% at US$97.22/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback overnight to buy 65.24 U.S. cents, 96.17 Japanese yen, 48.54 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.Ahead of Tuesday's trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.13% tracking the record closes on Wall Street overnight. Trading ideas:Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Perenti (ASX:PRN) from a buy to a hold and have maintained the 12-month price target on the materials company at $1.80 following the company's issue of an updated noting that FY25 free cash flow is likely to be $280m vs the previous guidance of greater than $150m. The downgrade to a hold is on the back of recent share price appreciation.And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 156 days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $6.42 to the range of $8.20 to $8.60 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed mixed on Friday following reports President Trump pushed for greater tariffs on the European region. The Dow jones fell 0.32% on Friday, the S&P500 lost just 0.01% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day up 0.05%. Reports suggest Trump is demanding a minimum tariff between 15-20% from the EU ahead of the August 1 tariff implementation date. Consumer sentiment in the U.S. also out on Friday though suggests confidence levels are up 1.8% in the latest reading, indicating tariff-induced inflation fears are easing. We have started receiving first half earnings results in the U.S. and Netflix shares fell 5% on Friday after the streaming giant reported its operating margin will be lower in the second half of this FY.Across the European region on Friday, markets closed mixed as investors digested the latest tariff threats on the region. Germany's DAX fell 0.33%, the French CAC rose 0.01% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.22%.The Asia region also ended Friday's session mixed with China's CSI index rising 0.6%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 1.33%, South Korea's Kospi index lost 0.13%, and Japan's Nikkei ended the day down 0.21%.The ASX200 posted a 2.1% gain for the week in its best week since May and ended the week with a fresh record high driven by market heavyweights like CSL (ASX:CSL) and BHP (ASX:BHP) jumping over 3% each. Mesoblast (ASX:MSB) rocketed over 34% on Friday after reporting strong early sales of Ryoncil in the first few months of its availability on market.Virgin Australia (ASX:VGN) also gained almost 2% after UBS initiated coverage of the airline with a buy rating.Most traded securities:The most traded investments by our clients on Friday were led by Wesfarmers (ASX:WES)BHP (ASX:BHP)ANZ (ASX:ANZ) What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.36% lower at US$67.30/barrel, gold is up 0.32% at US$3349/ounce and iron ore is up 0.04% at US$97.22/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.18 US cents, 96.43 Japanese yen, 48.52 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.Ahead of Monday's trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.56%.Trading ideas:Bell Potter has raised the 12-month price target on Mesoblast (ASX:MSB) from $3.40 to $3.50 and maintain a speculative buy rating on the pharmaceutical company following the release of the company's latest cashflow update including US$13.2m in gross sales from Ryoncil for the period of 28 March to 30 June 2025. The major catalysts include revenue expansion from Ryoncil and the unrecognised value of a likely Accelerated Approval for Revascor in late-stage heart failure in CY26.And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on CSL (ASX:CSL) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 53-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $257.38 to the range of $268 to $272 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed higher to start the new trading week in the green despite President Trump's latest tariff threats over the weekend. The S&P500 rose 0.14%, the Nasdaq added 0.27% and the Dow Jones ended the day up 0.2%. Investors will gauge the first hit of tariffs on the region's inflation this week when the latest U.S. inflation reading is out.In Europe overnight markets closed mostly lower despite the UK finishing at a record high. The STOXX 600 fell just 0.06%, Germany's DAX lost 0.39%, the French CAC fell 0.27%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.64% to a fresh record high.Across the Asia region on Monday, markets closed mixed as bitcoin hit a fresh record high while cautious investors assessed the latest Trump tariff threats. Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.26%, China's CSI index ended flat, Japan's Nikkei lost 0.2% and South Korea's Kospi index ended the day up by 0.83%.The latest slew of China's economic data is out this week and yesterday we had the first glimpse with coal imports falling to the lowest level in more than 2-years in June amid weak demand and higher domestic production. China's steel exports on the other hand leapt to a record in Q2 reaching 30.7 million tonnes, up 11% from last year. The surge defied expectations, driven by strong demand and despite trade restrictions across Asia and Europe. The first-half total also rose by 9%. China's trade balance for June showed exports jumped 5.8% which topped expectations and showed a 1% increase MoM while imports rose 1.1%, below expectations but above the -3.4% reported a month prior, leading to the trade surplus rising to $114bn which also topped expectations.Another round of tariffs, another spike in investor uncertainty sparking a flee to safe-haven investments across the broad market yesterday. The ASX200 posted a 0.11% loss to start the new trading week lower after see-sawing all-day. Energy and materials stocks closed with gains over 0.5% while industrials and discretionary stocks were the hardest hit to start the new trading week.Gold miners were all the rage for investors to start the new week amid heightened volatility brought on by renewed tariff uncertainty. Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) rose 1.72%, Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN) added 1.88% and Ramelius Resources (ASX:RMS) ended the day up 3.4%.Counter drone technology company DroneShield (ASX:DRO) soared another 15% yesterday after the company reported the expansion of its R&D capabilities including a $13m initial investment to lease and fit out a brand new 3000 sqm production facility in Alexandria. Most traded securities:The most traded investments by Bell Direct clients to start the new week were led by BHP (ASX:BHP)DroneShield (ASX:DR)Andean Silver (ASX:ASL)Betashares Global Defence ETF (ASX:ARMR) What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 2.28% lower at US$66.89/barrel, gold is down 0.4% at US$3343/ounce and iron ore is up 0.05% at US$96.76/tonne.The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 65.47 U.S. cents, 96.75 Japanese yen, 48.55 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 10 cents.Ahead of Tuesday's trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.64%.Trading ideas:Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN) from $6.50 to $9.20 and maintain a buy rating on the uranium producer ahead of some catalysts coming up including the outlook for a re-rate on the company over the coming quarters with predicted fresh ore processing outperforming the stockpile issues which plagued FY25.Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on PWR Holdings (ASX:PWH) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 15-days which is roughly t

Wall Street closed lower on Friday after President Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canada and threatened higher tariffs across the board. The S&P500 retreated 0.33% a day after posting a fresh record high, the Nasdaq lost 0.22% and the Dow Jones ended the day down 0.63%.In Europe on Friday, markets closed lower as investors awaited the highly anticipated tariff letter to arrive from President Trump outlining the damage of tariffs set to come. The STOXX 600 lost 1.1%, Germany's DAX and the French CAC each lost 0.9% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.4%.Across the Asia region on Friday, it was a mixed session after President Trump announced a blanket 15% or 20% tariff on most trade partners. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.75%, China's CSI index rose 0.12%, Japan's Nikkei slipped 0.19% and South Korea's Kospi index ended the day down 0.23%.Locally to end the last trading week, the ASX200 posted a 0.11% loss as every sector aside from materials stocks ended the day in the red. For the week, the ASX200 posted a 0.27% loss as strong declines among REIT and tech stocks offset strength among utilities and materials stocks.Rare earths producers locally surged on Friday after the US Department of Defence agreed to take a 15% stake in MP Materials, a US-based rare earths producer. Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) rose over 16% on Friday while Arafura Rare Earths (ASX:ARU) added 5.56%.Johns Lyng Group (ASX:JLG) soared over 21% on Friday after announcing it has agreed to a $1bn takeover offer from Pacific Equity Partners, an Australian-based private markets fund manager.Most traded securities:The most traded stocks by Bell Direct clients on Friday were led byCSL (ASX:CSL)Neuren Pharmaceuticals (ASX:NEU)NAB (ASX:NAB)And the most traded ETFs were led byVanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX:VAS)Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF (ASX:NDQ)Vanguard Msci Index International Shares ETF (ASX:VGS)What to wach today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 3.27% higher at US$68.75/barrel, gold is up 0.92% at US$3354.76/ounce and iron ore is down 0.05% at US$96.71/tonne.The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 65.64 U.S. cents, 96.60 Japanese yen, 45.91* British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.Ahead of the first trading session of the new week, the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.15% tracking the global market turbulence overnight.Trading ideas:Bell Potter has initiated coverage of Kinatico (ASX:KYP) with a buy rating and a 12-month price target of 30cps. The company is a leading provider of ‘know your people' solutions to organisations across Australia and NZ with a legacy business – CVCheck – which provides employment screening to over 10,000 repeat corporate customers. Bell Potter's analyst sees the buy rating is supported by upcoming catalysts including FY25 results, positive outlook statements and the successful launch of ComplianceX this quarter with strong initial take-up of the solution.And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Tasmea (ASX:TEA) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 22-days which is roughly the amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $3.37 to the range of $2.65 to $2.80 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

S&P futures are pointing to a lower open today, down (0.6%). European equity markets also opened in the red, with the major indices roughly down by (0.5%). Asian markets traded mixed with Greater China markets outperforming. The Hang Seng surged +1.8%, boosted by gains in consumer-oriented and property stocks, while the Shanghai Composite hit a 3.5-year high. President Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian goods not covered by the USMCA, effective 1-Aug, increasing from the current 25%. Energy-related goods remain at a 10% tariff. Trump hinted at potential baseline tariffs of 15 to 20%, up from the current 10%, and suggested similar measures might target the EU soon. Companies Mentioned: Google, Boyd Gaming, Panasonic

S&P futures are pointing to a flat open today. Asian markets traded mixed today with Japan's Nikkei logging small gains, supported by resilience in manufacturing. The Hang Seng underperformed, as property and tech stocks lagged. European markets are trading higher, with the DAX and CAC leading gains. President Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper, set for late July or early August implementation, and proposed a 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals with a longer timeline. He ruled out extending the August 1 deadline, emphasizing his tough stance on trade while accusing BRICS nations of undermining the U.S. dollar and threatening an additional 10% tariff. Companies Mentioned: Apple, Starbucks, Merck, Verona Pharma, AES Corp

Wall Street recovered to close higher on Wednesday as investors shrugged off the latest tariff noise to buy into tech and other growth market areas again. The Nasdaq rose 0.94% boosted by Nvidia shares climbing 1.8%, the S&P500 added 0.61%, and the Dow Jones ended the day up 0.5%. On Wednesday, Trump sent a further 6 letters to countries outlining new tariffs on imports of goods bound for the U.S.In Europe overnight, markets closed at a four-week high boosted by the banks as investors await progress on trade talks between the U.S. and the EU. The STOXX600 rose 0.78%, Germany's DAX added 1.42%, the French CAC climbed 1.44%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.15%.Across the Asia markets on Wednesday, it was a mixed session after President Trump ruled out any extension to the tariff deadline of August 1. Japan's Nikkei added 0.33%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.06%, China's CSI index lost 0.18% and South Korea's Kospi index ended the day flat.The Australian share market dropped 0.61% on Wednesday following US President Donald Trump's escalation of his protectionist trade war, as he reiterated threats to impose higher tariffs on copper imports.Lifestyle Communities (ASX:LIC) saw a dramatic drop of over 40% following a landmark tribunal ruling that deemed its profitable deferred management fees, or exit fees, imposed on residents to be invalid under state tenancy laws.Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX:TLX) surged 6% following the announcement that its prostate cancer imaging product, Gozellix, has been assigned a permanent code by the US Centres for Medicare & Medicaid Services, effective October 1.Most traded securities:Most traded stocks and ETFs of the day yesterday by our clients were led byBHP (ASX:BHP)Ampol (ASX:ALD)Global X Physical Gold ETF (ASX:GOLD)What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.21% higher at US$68.32/barrel, gold is up 0.36% at US$3313.36/ounce and iron ore is up 0.35% at US$95.55/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.34 U.S. cents, 95.61 Japanese yen, 48.05 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.Ahead of Thursday's trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.5%.Trading ideas:Bell Potter has decreased the 12-month price target on Lifestyle Communities (ASX:LIC) from $8.55 to $5.00 and maintain a hold rating on the company following the receipt of judgement from ongoing VCAT proceedings relating chiefly to its use of a deferred managed fee structure.And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Data3 (ASX:DTL) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 182 days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $7.79 to the range of $9.80 to $10.20 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed mixed on Tuesday as investors assessed the latest comments out of President Trump on the tariff front whereby he said there will be no exceptions to his August 1 tariff start date. The S&P500 lost just 0.07%, the Dow Jones dipped 0.37% and the Nasdaq ended the day up 0.03%.In Europe overnight, markets in the region closed higher as investors hope trade deals can be done between the US and key European countries in the near future. The STOXX 600 rose 0.3%, and Germany's DAX, the French CAC and the UK's FTSE 100 ended the day up 0.5% each.Across the Asia region on Tuesday, it was positive despite investors assessing President Trumps' latest tariff threats on 14 key trading partners. Imports from Japan, South Korea, and Malaysia among other countries are now set to face tariffs of 25% starting August 1 according to Trump's latest post on his social platform, Truth Social. Japan's Nikkei rose 0.26% on Tuesday, South Korea's Kospi Index ended the day up 1.81%, China's CSI index rose 0.84% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 1.09%.The local market closed Tuesday's session flat as investors were shocked by the RBA's surprise rate hold announcement whereby Australia's cash rate will remain at 3.85% for the next period amid global uncertainty on the tariff front and Australia's tight labour market. RBA governor Michele Bullock said Australia's central bank is really conscious of not wanting to end up with a fight against inflation again and they want to make sure they have ‘nailed' inflation before cutting again.Following the RBA's shock rate hold on Tuesday afternoon, the ASX dipped but recovered just before the closing bell with staples and utilities stocks taking the biggest hit, while tech and communication services offset some of the losses.Some broker moves sparked stock reactions yesterday with South32 (ASX:S32) sliding almost 2% after Goldman Sachs cut its outlook on the company to Neutral while Domino's Pizza (ASX:DMP) rallied over 2% after UBS upgraded the stock to a buy, and Guzman Y Gomez (ASX:GYG) fell 4% after JPMorgan initiated coverage on the stock on Monday with an underweight rating. What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.7% higher at US$68.40/barrel, gold is down 0.92% at US$3306/ounce and iron ore is up 0.35% at US$95.55/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.31 US cents, 95.77 Japanese Yen, 48.12 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.And ahead of the midweek trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.08%.Trading ideas:Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Cobram Estate Olives (ASX:CBO) from $1.95 to $2.35 and maintain a hold rating on the olive oil producer following the company's provision of a FY25 production and earnings guidance update. CBO expects production to come in below BPe but EBITDA expectations of $115m top BPe of $113m.Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Lycopodium (ASX:LYL) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 99-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $11.29 to the range of $12.50 to $12.80 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St closed lower to start the new week as President Trump reportedly posted letters to countries indicating new tariff terms and amounts that will come into play once the July 9 waiver deadline ends. The Dow Jones fell 0.94% on Monday, the S&P 500 lost 0.79% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day down 0.92%.Imports from at least 7 countries will face hefty tariffs from August 1 according to Trump's latest posts on his social platform, Truth social.In Europe overnight, markets mostly rose before Trump's latest tariff updates were revealed. The STOXX 600 rose 0.4%, Germany's DAX added 1.1%, the French CAC climbed 0.4%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down just 0.2%.Across the Asia region overnight, markets closed mixed as Trump's tariff deadline day tomorrow looms and on the back of Trump announcing reciprocal tariffs will commence from August 1. China's CSI index fell 0.43%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.61%, Japan's Nikkei dropped 0.56%, and South Korea's Kospi index ended the day up 0.17%.Locally to start the new trading week, the ASX200 slipped into the red to post a 0.16% loss following the record close on Friday as investors await the RBA's rate announcement today and ahead of Trump's tariff waiver deadline tomorrow.Investors are increasingly on edge ahead of Trump's tariff waiver deadline ending on Wednesday 9th July as widespread concerns revolve around trade deals not being done thus leading to hefty tariffs disrupting trade moving forward. The local market is following the trends of global markets from late last week as investor optimism fades ahead of Wednesday's tariff deadline. Given the key index is trading around record territory of late, investors are also likely awaiting the RBA's rate decision today before making any big moves.Ahead of the RBA's anticipated rate cut out today, investors also took profits from the banks as banks tend to perform worse in a lower interest rate environment.Investors and the market are factoring in a 97% chance of a rate cut out of the RBA today to the effect of a 25-basis point cut. Should the RBA announce a cut we will likely see the tech, REIT and discretionary sectors continue to rally as such sectors tend to outperform in a lower interest rate environment.Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) tumbled 6% on Monday after the gold miner announced its production showed output at the lower end of guidance, while Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) rose over 5% on reports that UK start-up Octopus Energy, which Origin has a 23% stake in, is planning to demerge its tech division.What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 2.36% higher at US$68.02/barrel, gold is up 0.03% at US$3336.19/ounce and iron ore is down 1.06% at US$95.22/tonne.The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 64.89 US cents, 94.77 Japanese yen, 47.76 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.Ahead of Tuesday's trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.55%.Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has initiated coverage of Titomic (ASX:TTT) with a speculative buy rating and a 12-month price target of $0.50/share. Titomic is an Australian company at the forefront of industrial-scale metal additive manufacturing and Bell Potter's analyst sees the increasing spend in defence, especially to come in the US, as a growth opportunity for Titomic.And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 15-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $11.55 to the range of $12.00 to $12.20 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St was closed for the July 4 Independence Day holiday on Friday.Over in Europe on Friday markets closed mostly lower ahead of Trump's looming tariff deadline day. The STOXX 600 fell 0.5%, Germany's DAX lost 0.6%, the French CAC fell 0.8%, and, in the UK, the FTSE 100 ended the day flat.Across the Asia region on Friday, markets similarly closed mostly lower as investors fear the end of the tariff waiver deadline will mean tariffs will be imposed immediately with a high effect. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.64%, Japan's Nikkei closed flat, China's CSI index rose 0.36% and South Korea's Kospi index ended the day down almost 2%.Locally on Friday and to end the first trading week of July, the ASX200 posted a 0.1% gain, resetting its record for a second time already this financial year and for the last trading week the index rose 1.04%.Following a stellar year for financial stocks in FY25, we have seen valuations stretched above growth outlook which prompted investors to take some profits and diversify into areas of the market that either have a high growth outlook like the AI movement in tech or that have been sold off sharply in FY25 presenting strong buy opportunities at present. CBA (ASX:CBA) shares fell almost 1% on Friday.Shares in small-cap container operator Silk Logistics (ASX:SLH) jumped 22.4% after receiving approval from the competition regulator for its acquisition by Dubai-based DP World.The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 65.63 US cents, 94.77 Japanese yen, 48 British pence, and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.56% lower at US$66.46/barrel, gold is up 0.3% at US$3335/ounce and iron ore is up 1.17% at US$96.24/tonne.Ahead of Monday's trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day flat.And now let's dive into some trading ideas for your consideration today.Trading ideas:Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Pro Medicus (ASX:PME) from a buy to a hold and have raised the 12-month price target on the leading imaging healthcare tech company to $320/share following the company announcing the renewal and extension of its contract with Franciscan Missionaries of Our Lady Health System in Louisiana and announced a second and larger deal with U. Colorado Health.Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on AMP (ASX:AMP) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 88-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $1.43 to the range of $1.66 to $1.72 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

S&P futures are pointing to a slightly higher open today, up +0.1%. Asian markets had a mixed session on Thursday. The Hang Seng dropped (0.6%) amidst weakness in property stocks while Japan's Nikkei dipped as uncertainty around trade talks weighed on sentiment. European markets are broadly higher in early trades, with the STOXX 600 up +0.3% and the FTSE 100 leading at +0.5%. President Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on exports to the U.S. and 40% on transshipments, reduced from an earlier proposed 46%. The U.S. will face zero tariffs on exports to Vietnam, though specifics on product groups and transshipment provisions remain unclear. Companies Mentioned: Old Point Financial, Apollo Global Management, TripAdvisor

S&P futures are pointing to a higher open today, up +0.2%. Asian markets finished Wednesday trading mostly lower, with the Hang Seng slightly higher and Japan's Nikkei weighed down by renewed tariff concerns. European equities are broadly showing strength in early sessions with the French CAC leading gains. President Trump stated he is not considering extending the July 9 deadline for resuming higher tariffs and reiterated the possibility of imposing duty rates on several nations, including Japan. Trump criticized Japan's limited U.S. rice imports and imbalance in auto trade, suggesting future tariffs could range from 30% to 35%.Companies Mentioned: Paramount Global, Intel, Spectris

Wall Street closed mostly higher on Wednesday after President Trump announced a U.S.-Vietnam trade deal has been reached to the effect of 20% tariffs on goods imported from Vietnam into the U.S. Investors welcomed the news despite fresh economic data also out yesterday showing private payrolls in the U.S. surprisingly declined in June. The S&P500 ended the day up 0.47% to a fresh record high of 6227.42 points while the Dow Jones fell just 0.02% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day up 0.94%. In Europe on Wednesday, markets in the region closed mostly higher despite volatility in the UK. The STOXX 600 rose 0.2%, Germany's DAX added 0.5%, the French CAC climbed 1% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.1%.Across the Asia region on Wednesday, markets closed mixed as investors assessed US Fed Chair Jerome Powell's latest comments around further rate cuts would have already happened if it weren't for President Trump's tariff initiatives. China's CSI index closed flat, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.73%, Japan's Nikkei slipped 0.5% and South Korea's Kospi Index ended the day down 0.47%.The local market reset its record yesterday with the key index ending the day up 0.66% with 10 of the 11 sectors ending the day higher led by materials stocks rallying 1.83%.Retail sales data out yesterday locally for May came in at a rise of 0.2% MoM which fell short of the 0.4% rise markets were expecting, signalling consumer discretionary spend remains subdued due to higher cost-of-living pressures and overall uncertainty. Much to the listed retailer relief though, retail spend in May was boosted by a bounce-back in clothing purchases, albeit at a time when a large number of retailers held higher promotional activity to reduce inventory levels. Other than clothing spend rebounding, retail spending was otherwise restrained this month, with a drop in food-related spending and flat results across household goods.Qantas (ASX:QAN) shares tumbled 2.2% after the flying kangaroo confirmed it has been hit by a cyber attack affecting the personal data of more than 6 million customers.Lenders Mortgage Insurance provider Helia Group (ASX:HLI) sank over 20% yesterday on news that another major long-term partner in ING Bank was negotiating a deal with alternative providers. The move comes just months after CBA pulled the pin on its LMI deal with Helia.Domino's Pizza (ASX:DMP) shares also fell almost 16% after the company's CEO Mark van Dyck announced he will step down from the role after just 12 months at the helm.What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 3.2% higher at US$67.54/barrel, gold is up 0.57% at US$3357.35/ounce and iron ore is up 1.84% at US$95.13/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.86 US cents, 94.59 Japanese yen, 48.28 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.Ahead of Thursday's trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.21%. Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has decreased the 12-month price target on Santana Minerals (ASX:SMI) from $1.30 to $1.18 and maintain a speculative buy rating on the gold miner following the release of the company's updated Pre-Feasibility Study for its 100% owned Bendigo-Ophir Gold Project in New Zealand. It is well placed to complete its Fast Track application, commence early site works in 2HCY25, make a Final Investment Decision in early CY26 and commence construction in 1HCY26. It remains one of the nearest term, new gold development projects on the ASX and is why the analyst has maintained a spec buy rating on the company.

Wall Street closed mixed to start the new quarter as investors rotated out of tech stocks to start the new quarter. The Dow Jones rose 0.91%, the S&P 500 fell 0.11% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day down 0.82%. Investors are also weighing the latest developments with President Trump's major tax and spending bill while assessing comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell around the rate outlook in the US.In Europe overnight, markets closed mostly lower as investors monitored the European Central Bank's annual forum in Portugal. The STOXX 600 fell 0.2%, Germany's DAX lost 0.8%, the French CAC closed flat, and, in the UK, the FTSE 100 ended the day up 0.3%.Across the Asia region on Tuesday, markets closed mixed as investors assessed record gains on Wall St to end June and remain concerned over the global impact of tariffs amid the looming deadline day next week. China's CSI index rose 0.17%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng was closed for a public holiday, Japan's Nikkei fell 1.24%, and South Korea's Kospi index ended the day up 0.6%.The ASX200 started the new trading month virtually flat as investors regrouped to navigate the start of FY26 with headwinds in the form of geopolitical tensions, trade wars and elevated valuations creeping in from FY25.Over the last 12-months financials stocks have soared over 26% led by sector heavyweight CBA (ASX:CBA) which has experienced share price appreciation of 45% as investors flocked to safe haven investments during the last 12-months of elevated volatility and uncertainty. For the same reason, gold stocks have also been on a tear over the last financial year.Heading into the new year, the first session of FY26 was uneventful as investors still await clarity on the tariff front, particularly on the outcome of talks between the US and China. Both rate sensitive sectors in tech and real estate stocks offset weakness among industrials and materials stocks on Tuesday.Superannuation takeover target Insignia Financial (ASX:IFL) rallied over 5% on Tuesday after final takeover bidder, CC Capital, said it would continue working toward making a binding offer for the company after months and other bidders involved in the deal.And in the healthcare space Mesoblast (ASX:MSB) shares rose over 8.5% after the company announced progress of its treatments with the US FDA toward commercialisation, with the company intending to file by the end of the year for accelerated approval. What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.45% higher at US$65.40/barrel, gold is up 1.04% at US$3337.65/ounce, and iron ore is down 1.12% at US$93.41/tonne.The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 65.72 US cents, 94.51 Japanese Yen, 47.85 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.Ahead of the midweek trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.21%.Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has maintained a buy rating on Perenti (ASX:PRN) and have raised the 12-month price target to $1.80 from $1.45 following the announcement of a contract win at the Great Fingall underground project with Westgold Resources (ASX:WGX) in WA worth $200m over 3-years.And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Yancoal (ASX:YAL) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 9-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $5.91 to the range of $6.70 to $6.90 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed higher on Friday as investors looked past President Trump's latest swipe at Canada. The S&P500 rose 0.52% to close at a fresh record high while the Dow Jones added 1% and the Nasdaq ended the day up also 0.52% and also to a fresh record high. On Friday President Trump posted on truth social, his social media platform, that talks between the U.S. and Canada were being terminated. Investors remain confused about the global tariff situation amid the looming July 9 tariff delay deadline, but pushed stocks higher on Friday on reports that the U.S. is close to announcing trade deals with 10 major partners.In Europe on Friday, markets closed higher on optimism of improving trade talks between the U.S. and China. The STOXX 600 rose 1.1%, Germany's DAX added 1.5%, the French CAC climbed 1.8% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.7%.Across the Asia region on Friday, markets closed mixed as investors assessed China's May industrial output data indicating industrial profits fell 9.1% over the first 5-months of the year. China's CSI index fell 0.61%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.17%, Japan's Nikkei rose 1.43% and South Korea's Kospi index ended the day down 0.77%.Locally on Friday the key index posted a 0.43% loss as a sharp sell-off in financials, healthcare and REIT stocks weighed on the key index. For the week, the ASX200 posted a 0.1% gain though led by financials and materials stocks posting over 1.5% gains each.Reece (ASX:REH) tumbled over 18% on Friday after announcing its FY25 earnings were expected to fall significantly from the year prior, while Woolworths (ASX:WOW) shares fell 1% despite the supermarket giant announcing it will close its loss-making MyDeal marketplace just 3-years after purchasing it. What to watch today:The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 65.38 U.S. cents, 94.36 Japanese yen, 47.62 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.On the commodities front this morning oil has continued to retreat, trading down 0.26% at US$65.07/barrel, uranium is up 0.7% at US$ 79.05/pound, gold is down 1.65% at US$3273.67/ounce, and iron ore is up 0.01% at US$94.49/tonne.Ahead of the first trading session of the new week the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.06%.Trading ideas:Bell Potter has decreased the 12-month price target on Chalice Mining (ASX:CHN) from $5.75 to $4.10 and maintain a speculative buy rating on the copper miner following key updates out of the company confirming the development plan for its 100%-owned Gonneville project near Perth. The updates give the market greater clarity on the project development milestones with the plan striking the right balance between value extraction and mining and processing routes that minimise capex.And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Data3 (ASX:DTL) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 59-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $7.51 to the range of $8.90 to $9.30 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed mixed on Wednesday as investors await clarity on ceasefire reports out of Iran and Israel. The S&P 500 was little changed, the Nasdaq added 0.31% and the Dow Jones ended the day down 0.25%.Investors bought into the some of magnificent 7 overnight sending Nvidia shares up 4.3% to a fresh record high while Alphabet added 2.3%.In Europe overnight, markets closed lower despite a strong rally for defence stocks amid uncertainty over the Middle East war. The STOXX600 fell 0.7%, Germany's DAX dropped 0.6%, the French CAC lost 0.8%, and in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.5%.Across the Asia region on Wednesday markets closed mostly higher as investors weighed up ceasefire hopes against fresh commentary out of the U.S. Fed where Powell said policymakers were "well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance." Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.22% on Wednesday, China's CSI index climbed 1.44%, Japan's Nikkei added 0.4% and South Korea's Kospi index ended the day up 0.15%.Locally on Wednesday, the ASX200 posted a mere 0.04% gain as a more than 1% rally for financials stocks offset weakness among the materials and energy sectors.The monthly CPI read coming in below market forecasts at a rate of 2.1% for May signals the RBA is on track to consider another rate cut in the very near future which fueled tailwinds for the REIT and Discretionary sectors today, both of which perform better in lower interest rate environments. Sentiment remains shaky though on a global scale as investors are stuck in a limbo of asking if the ceasefire is or is not going ahead in the Middle East. It is a watch-and-wait situation as it continues to unfold.As global defence spend ramps up, DroneShield (ASX:DRO) shares are flying with the company announcing yesterday the receipt of a $61.6m for European military, marking its biggest contract in company history. Shares in the counter drone tech company soared over 20% on Wednesday following the deal announcement. What to watch todayOn the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.87% higher at US$64.93/barrel, uranium is up a further 0.45% at US$77.90/pound, gold is up 0.3% at US$3332.26/ounce and iron ore is down 0.12% at US$94.52/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.17 U.S. cents, 94.41 Japanese yen, 47.71 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.Ahead of Thursday's trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down half a percent. Trading IdeasBell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on DroneShield (ASX:DRO) from $1.50 to $2.60 and maintain a buy rating on the counter-drone technology company following the announcement of the company's record contract receipt valued at $61.6m, indicating significant earnings growth, increasing scale and frequency of contracts and industry tailwinds.And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Fletcher Building (ASX:FBU) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 79-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $2.67 to the range of $2.21 to $2.31 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St closed higher on Tuesday as investors hold onto hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East. The Dow Jones rose 1.2%, the S&P500 added 1.11% and the Nasdaq ended the day up 1.43%.While President Trump reported on Tuesday morning that a ceasefire between Iran and Israel has been agreed upon, reports then followed that Iran has not agreed to a ceasefire thus sparking fears of prolonged tensions. Despite this confusion, markets still rallied, and energy stocks plummeted amid the dive in the price of oil overnight.In Europe overnight, global hopes of a ceasefire boosted markets in the region with the STOXX 600 rising 1.2% on Tuesday while Germany's DAX added 1.6%, the French CAC rose 1% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day flat. Oil and gas stocks weighed on market gains in the region amid the tumbling price of energy commodities due to the lack of supply concerns from the Middle East that initially led to a spike when the war between Iran and Israel first broke out.Across the Asia region on Tuesday, positive global sentiment on ceasefire hopes extended into the region with markets closing higher led by South Korea's Kospi Index rising 2.96%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 2.06%, China's CSI index gained 1.2% and Japan's Nikkei added 1.14% on Tuesday.Ceasefire talks in the Middle East boosted global investor sentiment overnight leading to the local market rallying 0.95% on Tuesday led by materials stocks posting a near 2% gain, while the energy sector tumbled almost 4% on the sliding price of oil.Two local IPOs had investors hitting the buy button yesterday with Greatland Gold (ASX:GGP) jumping 7.9% on debut while Virgin Australia (ASX:VAH) shares also took flight on IPO with the airline ending its re-debut session up over 8%.KFC Australia operator Collins Food (ASX:CKF) soared 16.5% yesterday despite announcing weaker results for FY25 including NPAT down almost 15% and the full year dividend down 7%. Investors likely welcomed the strength of results in the second half of FY25 and revenue increasing over 2%. What to watch today On the commodities front this morning oil has extended its decline to trade 5.92% lower at US$64.45/barrel, uranium is up 2.17% at US$77.55/pound, gold is down 1.51% at US$3317.46/ounce and iron ore is down 0.02% at US$94.75/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.04 US cents, 94.12 Japanese Yen, 47.86 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.Ahead of the midweek trading session in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.06% tracking global market gains overnight.Trading IdeasBell Potter has downgraded the rating on Adairs (ASX:ADH) from a buy to a hold and have reduced the 12-month price target on the company from $2.65 to $2.10 following the release of Adairs' Q4 results including higher fixed costs and the company's Focus on Furniture division down 9.3% on the PCP amid tough market headwinds.And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Ampol (ASX:ALD) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 33-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $25.34 to the range of $23.40-$23.80 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street started the new trading week with a surprising but welcome rally as investors welcomed the delayed reaction by Iran to the U.S. launching an attack on its nuclear facilities over the weekend. Oil prices tumbled overnight as investors now bet the impact of the Middle East war won't be as great as was first expected on global oil supply from the region. The S&P500 rose 0.96% on Monday, the Dow Jones gained 0.89% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day up 0.94%.In Europe overnight markets extended their losing run to close lower as investors in the region still fear retaliation from Iran may be incoming. The STOXX 600 fell 0.25% on Tuesday, while Germany's DAX lost 0.3%, the French CAC closed 0.7% lower and, in the UK, the FTSE 100 ended the day down 0.2%.Across the Asia markets on Monday it was a mostly negative session following the U.S. attack on Iran over the weekend sparking further concerns of escalated and prolonged tensions in the Middle East and beyond. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.13%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.67%, China's CSI index gained 0.2% and South Korea's Kospi index ended the day down 0.24%.The ASX started the new trading week in the red with a 0.36% loss at the closing bell as investors fear Iran will respond to the US attacks over the weekend, which is the key driver of oil and uranium prices rising further overnight. The US entering the Middle East war takes the conflict from a regional to global war, spreading fear and further uncertainty among global markets and investors. Financial stocks were up due to their safe-haven nature in the local market while energy stocks are on a run amid fears of impact on global oil supply due to the Middle East war. Industrial, healthcare and staples stocks took the biggest hit on the local market to start the week with losses over and near 1% each.Homewares retailer Adairs (ASX:ADH) followed the recent retailer trend by plunging over 20% on Monday after warning the FY25 earnings will come in below FY24's amid elevated promotional activity eating into margins on the back of a slow down in consumer spend.What to watch todayOn the commodities front this morning oil has tumbled 8.85% to trade at US$67.49/barrel, uranium is up 1.5% at US$75.90/pound, gold is up 0.03% at US$3370/ounce and iron ore is down 0.02% at US$94.75/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 64.64 U.S. cents, 94.41 Japanese yen, 47.63 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.Ahead of Tuesdays trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the new trading day up 0.73%. Virgin Australia is also set to rejoin the key index today through an IPO pricing the company at $2.90/share.Trading IdeasBell Potter has downgraded the rating on Smartpay Holdings (ASX:SMP) from a buy to a hold and have reduced the 12-month price target on the full-service provider of payment solutions after the company announced it has entered into a Scheme Implementation Agreement with Shift4Payments to be acquired at a cash price of NZ$1.20/share. The analyst believes the offer is opportunistic and undervalues the quality of the asset.Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Woolworths Group (ASX:WOW) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 28-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $31.41 to the range of $30.20 to $30.50 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street ended Friday's session mixed as investors remained concerned about escalating tensions in the Middle East. The S&P500 fell 0.22%, the Dow Jones rose 0.08%, and the Nasdaq ended the day down 0.51%. Chip stocks came under pressure on Friday on reports that the U.S. may revoke some wavers placed on tariffs for chip stocks, leading to Nvidia shares dropping 1% on Friday.In Europe on Friday markets closed mostly higher for the session but lower across markets for the week amid escalating tensions on a global geopolitical scale. The STOXX 600 rose 0.1% on Friday, Germany's DAX added 1.21%, the French CAC rose 0.5% and, in the UK the FTSE 100 ended the day down 0.2%.Across Asia markets on Friday, it was a mixed session as investors assessed the potential U.S. involvement in the Middle East at the same time as China held rates steady despite its economy being in deflationary mode. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.26%, China's CSI index closed flat, Japan's Nikkei fell 0.22% and South Korea's Kospi index ended the day up 1.5%.Locally to end the last trading week, the ASX200 posted a 0.21% loss amid growing investor uncertainty on a global scale. Utilities stocks rose 0.74% on Friday while consumer staples and discretionary stocks fell 0.87% and 0.63% respectively.Betr rose 5.3% on Friday after lobbing an all-scrip bid for PointsBet (ASX:PBH), while Bowen Coking Coal (ASX:BCB) plummeted almost 50% after announcing the weak coal markets and the ‘unsustainable' QLD coal royalty regime could spark the company to temporarily pause operations.What to watch todayOn the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.73% higher at US$74.04/barrel, gold is down just 0.05% at US$3367.91/ounce, uranium is up 1.47% at US$75.90/pound after the US attacked 3 nuclear sites in Iran, and iron ore is trading 0.06% higher at US$94.77/tonne.The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 64.33 US cents, 94.35 Japanese Yen, 47.95 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.Ahead of Monday's trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.24% after the U.S. attacked Iran over the weekend, further escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.Trading IdeasBell Potter has downgraded the rating on REA Group (ASX:REA) a buy to a hold and have slightly reduced the 12-month price target on the leading online real estate platform from $267 to $262 following soft May volumes of national listings and the outlook for eased listings into FY26.And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on TechnologyOne (ASX:TNE) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 23-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $40.58 to the range of $36.40 to $37.20 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed lower across the major averages on Tuesday as tensions in the Middle East continue to rise, hitting a 5th day of attacks between Iran and Israel. The Dow Jones lost 0.7%, the S&P500 fell 0.84% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day down 0.91%.President Trump took to Truth Social, his social media platform, demanding ‘unconditional surrender' from Iran's leader as he departed the G7 conference early to deal with the situation in the Middle East.In Europe overnight, markets in the region fell as the Israel-Iran conflict continues. The STOXX 600 fell 0.8%, Germany's DAX lost 1%, the French CAC fell 0.8% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.5%.Across the Asia region on Tuesday markets closed mixed as investors assessed the escalating tensions in the Middle East. Lingering uncertainty and rising energy costs are weighing on global investor sentiment due to the conflict, at a time where volatility and uncertainty was already heightened due to US tariffs and global tensions rising on the trade front. Japan's Nikkei added 0.6%, China's CSI index closed flat, Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.34% and South Korea's Kospi index ended the day up 0.12%.The local market started the new trading week virtually flat with a 0.01% gain on Monday before see-sawing between positive and negative on Tuesday to close down 0.08% as investors reacted to escalating tensions in the Middle East and Trump urging for Tehran's evacuation amid the Iran-Israel attacks. Volatility, rising geopolitical tensions and macro and market uncertainty have been the core drivers of market movements in recent times weighing on investor sentiment. Rate sensitive sectors posted gains yesterday with Tech and REIT stocks ending the day up 0.32% and 0.23% respectively while utilities stocks took the biggest hit with a 0.68% loss.Gold miners regained some ground on Tuesday following Monday's sell-off as investors fled to safe-haven assets again in the face of growing geopolitical tensions, while uranium miners extended their recent surge on nuclear power demand rising.What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning, oil continues to climb, trading up 4.6% at US$75.06/barrel, gold is up 0.2% at US$3390/ounce and iron ore is down 0.16% at US$95.23/tonne.The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 64.70 US cents, 93.96 Japanese Yen, 47.79 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.Ahead of the midweek trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.19% tracking the global market sell off overnight.Trading IdeasBell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on IVE Group (ASX:IGL) following the company's investor strategy session where it upgraded guidance for FY25 for underlying NPAT to come in around $50m, representing a 4.7% upgrade, driven by margin expansion.Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Lendlease (ASX:LLC) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 21-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $5.55 to the range of $5.20 to $5.26 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed mixed on Wednesday after the US Federal Reserve's latest policy update kept the US interest rate steady with Chair Jerome Powell signalling it would wait to see the impact of President Trump's tariffs on inflation before proceeding with rate cuts. The Dow Jones fell 0.1%, the S&P 500 slipped just 0.03% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day up 0.13%.In Europe overnight, markets in the region closed mostly lower as investors continue to monitor the latest developments in the Middle East. The STOXX 600 fell 0.34%, Germany's DAX and the French CAC each lost 0.4% and the FTSE 100 ended the day up 0.1%.Across the Asia region on Wednesday, markets in the region closed mixed amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Japan's Nikkei rose 0.9%, South Korea's Kospi Index climbed 0.74%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 1.12% and China's CSI index ended the day up 0.12%.The local market's lacklustre performance this week extended into the midweek session with the key index ending the day down 0.12% as Iran-Israel attacks entered a 5th straight day and global markets were sold off on Tuesday as a result with no end-date or macro certainty in sight.Profit taking has hit the gold stocks yesterday with investors cashing in recent gains to capitalise on the soaring gold price which topped another record just days ago.Retailers have done it tough lately with widespread sell-offs amid elevated promotional activity leading to margin contraction as well as downgraded guidance and weaker outlook. Lovisa tumbled 5% yesterday despite no news out of the fashion jewellery retailer.What to watch todayOn the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.4% higher at US$75.15/barrel, gold is down 0.36% at US$3375/ounce and iron ore is trading 0.16% lower at US$94.71/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.07 US cents, 94.34 Japanese Yen, 48.33 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar 8 cents.The SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.23% extending on yesterday's losses.Trading ideasBell Potter has downgraded the rating on Centuria Office REIT (ASX:COF) to a sell from a hold and have reduced the 12-month price target on the externally-managed REIT from $1.20 to $1.10 as the analyst feels the share price has run ahead of market conditions.And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Duratec (ASX:DUR) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 113-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $1.36 to the range of $0.95 to $1.03 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Escalation of attacks between Iran and Israel hit global markets on Friday.Wall Street closed lower as investors assessed the worsening tensions in the Middle East with the S&P500 dropping1.13%, while the Dow Jones lost 1.8% and the tech heavy Nasdaq ended the day down 1.3%. Oil and defensive stocks rose on Friday amid the rising price of oil due to Middle East tensions and as investors buy into the defence sector driven by rising geopolitical tensions.In Europe on Friday markets closed in the red after Israel launched air strikes on Iran. The STOXX 600 fell 1%, Germany's DAX and the French CAC each lost 1.1% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.5%.Across the Asia region on Friday markets closed mixed as investors assessed an announcement by Trump that a deal had been done with China to the effect of 55% on imports from China into the U.S. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.11% on Friday, China's CSI index closed flat, Japan's Nikkei fell 0.65% and south Korea's Kospi index rose 0.45%.Locally on Friday, the ASX200 posted a 0.2% loss after Israel attacked Iran's nuclear program sites in a significant escalation of tensions in the Middle East.Luxury online fashion retailer Cettire tanked a further 20% on Friday following a 31% drop on Thursday after the company announced its second profit downgrade in less than two months, citing uncertainty around tariffs and elevated promotional activity as the drivers of the downgrades.Gold miners jumped on Friday amid the renewed geopolitical tensions driving investor uncertainty hence leading to a flock to safe-havens, while energy stocks also soared on the 13% spike in brent oil prices amid the rising Middle East tensions.What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 7.26% higher at US$72.98/barrel, gold is up 1.36% at US$3432/ounce and iron ore is down 0.08% at US$95.38/tonne.The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 64.85 US cents, 93.59 Japanese Yen, 47.96 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.Ahead of Monday's trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.23%.Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has reduced the 12-month price target on Accent Group (ASX:AX1) from $2.60 to $2.10 and maintain a buy rating on the footwear and fashion retailer following the company providing a FY25 trading update last week including group like-for-like sales down 1% in 2H25 to date, and gross margins fell 80bps on the PCP.Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on New Hope Corporation (ASX:NHC) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 85-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $3.87 to the range of $4.60 to $4.75 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

US equity futures are pointing slightly up. European markets are narrowly mixed, while Asia go broadly higher, with decent gains for Nikkei and Hang Seng. Kospi extended recent post-election outperformance. For treasuries, 10-year yields stay steady at 4.5% after backing up sharply in prior session. Dollar softer, oil down, gold softer, industrial metals mixed. Attention on trade developments with US and China resuming talks in London with export licenses a key topic of discussion. NEC Director Hassett confirmed US is seeking agreement on rare earths from London talks. For its part China has taken issue with US principally over tech export controls and Huawei crackdown, which were attributed in part for Beijing maintaining its rare earths export curbs. Unclear whether the latest talks will lead to resolution of divisions between US and China, leaving fate of tariffs unknown.Companies Mentioned: Qualcomm Inc, Alphawave IP Group, Quartzsea Acquisition Corp, Meta Platforms

S&P futures are pointing lower today, down (0.47%). European equity markets are firmer, following slightly weaker levels on Monday. Asian equity markets went mostly higher, with Hang Seng a notable outperformer. Overnight, US 2-year yield down 1 bps to 3.9% and 10-year down 3 bps to 4.4%. Dollar firmer, oil up, gold down, industrial metals lower. Renewed US-China trade tensions has spilled into public view with both sides accusing each other of reneging on Geneva deal. White House talking up prospects of a Trump-Xi call this week but no confirmation yet from China. Critical minerals remain source of tensions with China reportedly slow walking offer to relax rare earths curbs, a response to latest US tech curbs and revocation of Chinese student visas. Companies Mentioned: Snowflake, Merck, Crunchy Data, MoonLake Immunotherapeutics

S&P futures are pointing lower today, down (0.5%). European equity markets are weaker. Asian markets are lower, with Nikkei, Hang Seng and Taiwan underperforming, mainland China closed for public holiday. Overnight, treasury yields went up, with the two year up 2bps and the ten year up 5bps. The U.S. dollar weaker, oil up, gold gains, industrial metals higher. Trade tensions weighing on risk appetite. US-China relations fraying a month with two sides accusing the other of violating Geneva agreement. Main disagreements revolve around US frustration at China slow walking offer of relaxing rare earths curbs and China taking issue with US at new export restrictions. On geopolitical front, China rebuked US after Defense Secretary Hegseth warned of potentially imminent Taiwan invasion. Renewed tensions come as press sources noted efforts underway to set up a Trump-Xi call in bid to move forward talks.Companies Mentioned: Qualcomm, Alphawave IP Group, Sanofi, Blueprint Medicines, BASF

S&P futures are pointing lower, down (1.2%). European equity markets are lower, near worse levels. Asian equities are broadly weaker with Hang Seng leading China markets lower. Japan, Korea and Australia all in negative territory. Overnight, treasury yields were mixed, with 2-year down 1 bp and 10-year up 7 bps to 4.5%. Dollar is weaker across the board. Gold has been rebounding after posting worst week since mid twenty twenty one. Crude and copper tracking equity market declines. Bitcoin erased earlier gain. Moody's downgraded US credit rating late Friday, citing growth in government debt and projected widening of deficits if tax cuts are extended. Downgrade plays into market's longstanding deficit concerns driven by Trump policy agenda that have contributed to upward rise in long-term yields and term premium widening to highest since 2014Companies mentioned: NVIDIA, Assura, BT Group

S&P futures are pointing to a flat open, up 0.1%. European equity markets are mostly weaker, with the STOXX 600 down 0.2%. Asian equities had a mixed session, with the Hang Seng rebounding sharply, while Japan and Australia saw losses. The U.S. Commerce Department announced a revision of AI chip export rules, rescinding regulations that were set to take effect in May due to concerns over stifling innovation, regulatory burdens, and strained diplomatic ties. Companies Mentioned: Tesla, TXO Partners

S&P futures are pointing to a softer open, down (0.2%), as investors brace for a heavy slate of corporate earnings. European equities are firmer in early trades, extending recent rallies. Meanwhile, Asian equities were mixed, with Japan and Australia logging small gains, while the Hang Seng edged higher after paring early losses. The Shanghai Composite and South Korea's Kospi both finished lower. Companies Mentioned: Blackstone, JetBlue, United Airlines, Sunnova Energy

S&P futures are pointing to a higher open, up +0.2% as market sentiment is buoyed by optimism over potential relief on U.S. auto tariffs. Asian equities were mixed, with solid gains in Australia and South Korea, while Greater China markets and the Hang Seng edged lower. European equities are mostly higher, with the STOXX 600 up +0.2% and German DAX up +0.5%. Market focus has shifted to corporate earnings and significant economic data releases. S&P 500 Q1 earnings are expected to show solid growth, but forward guidance has been largely negative. Earnings and macro data remain centered on the impacts of tariffs.Companies Mentioned: Amazon, Ford, Flotek Industries

US equities are mostly higher with S&P and TSX futures pointing up. US 2-year yield stays at 3.8% and 10-year down 5 bps to 4.4%. Gold finished down 2.6%, bitcoin futures was up and WTI crude settled up 1.4%. European equity markets are firmer, follows broad strength in Asia, with decent gains for Nikkei and Hang Seng. Attention to the White House, President Trump said he never intended to fire Fed Chair Powell. He repeated his criticisms of Powell and said that he'd like him to be more active in terms of lowering interest rates, but that even if Powell doesn't, it would not result in his termination. Sell-side firms warned firing Powell risked inviting fresh market turbulence though there was also lingering scepticism that Trump would carry out threat to remove Powell given financial repercussions that would follow.Companies mentioned: Voyager Acquisition, VERAXA, Fonterra Co-operative Group, Intel

US equities are mostly lower with S&P futures pointing down 1.49%. US 2-year yield is steady at 3.8% and 10-year down 5 bps to 4.3%. Gold extends to new record high, bitcoin futures down and WTI crude settled slightly down. Both Asian and European equity markets are lower. Hang Seng underperformed and Taiwan was sharply down. China, Japan and South Korea were also weaker. European indices are pointing down around 1%. White House formally launched national security probes into pharmaceuticals and semis, paving the way for new sectoral tariffs. However, move had been widely telegraphed and market has seemingly been more focused on recent off-ramps. In addition, with US and Japan set to talk trade this week, some thoughts bar for early deals with key allies may be low. Companies mentioned: Datagroup, SPX Technologies, NVIDIA Corp, ASML Holdings

S&P futures and TSX are pointing slightly up. Asian equities inched higher in cautious trade with a 0.8% surge in Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai are slightly up with India leading the gainers as its banks and auto stocks rallied on tariff reprieve news. European equity markets are mostly higher, with major indices up near 1%. Overnight, US 10-year yield was steady at 4.4% with the 2-year up 1 bP to 3.9%. US dollar unchanged, AUD higher, NZD at four-month high, yen and yuan flat. Oil went up and gold firmer. Crude futures are slightly higher, precious metals are also resuming their upward trend, base metals are mixed. Cryptocurrencies are higher.Companies mentioned: Apple, Lowe's Companies, Ryanair Holdings, NVIDIA Corp

President Trump outlines tariff exemptions including smartphones, chips and other tech components but U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says the move is only temporary. The tech sector rallies in Asia with the Hang Seng leading gains. Chinese exports surge more than 12 per cent in March. President Xi Jinping slams the trade was with the U.S., saying that protectionism has ‘no way out'. The founder of Bridgewater Associates Ray Dalio tells NBC News tariffs and a falling dollar could signal a potentially serious economic downturn.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

S&P 500 was slightly up 0.04%. Asian equity markets were under pressure on Wednesday, with Japan and Taiwan performance particularly weak. Nikkei went down 3.93%, Hang Seng up 0.68%, Shanghai Composite +1.31%. European equity markets opened broadly lower, with STOXX 600 down 3 percent and FTSE 100 up 2.6%. Press declared US reciprocal tariffs came into effect with the clock moving past the 12:01 am ET deadline as stated by the White House. Most of the attention is on the highest tariff rate of 104% imposed on China. No further reaction came from Beijing so far though yesterday's backlash continued to reverberate. Full effects may take some time to filter through as goods already in transit as of midnight will be exempt as long as they arrive in the US by May 27th. Companies Mentioned: Apple, KKR, Assura, META

This week we talk about taxes, reciprocity, and recession.We also discuss falling indices, stagflation, and theories of operation.Recommended Book: The Serviceberry by Robin Wall KimmererTranscriptStagflation, which is a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation, is exactly what it sounds like: a combination of those two elements, usually with high levels of unemployment, as well, that can cause a prolonged period of economic sluggishness and strain that slows growth and can even lead to a recession.The term was coined in the UK in the 1960s to describe issues they were facing at the time, but it was globally popularized by the oil shocks of the 1970s, which sparked a period of high prices and slow growth in many countries, including in the US, where inflation boomed, productivity floundered, and economic growth plateaud, leading to a stock market crash in 1973 and 1974.Inflation, unto itself, can be troubling, as it means prices are going up faster than incomes, so the money people earn and have saved is worth less and less each day. That leads to a bunch of negative knock-on effects, which is a big part of why the US Fed has kept interest rates so high, aiming to trim inflation rates back to their preferred level of about 2% as quickly as possible in the wake of inflation surges following the height of the Covid pandemic.Stagnant economic growth is also troubling, as it means lowered GDP, reduced future outlook for an economy, and that also tends to mean less investment in said economy, reduced employment levels—and likely even lower employment levels in the future—and an overall sense of malaise that can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, no one feeling particularly upbeat about where their country is going; and that's not great economically, but it can also lead to all sorts of social issues, as people with nothing to look forward to but worse and worse outcomes are more likely to commit crimes or stoke revolutions than their upbeat, optimistic, comfortable kin.The combination of these two elements is more dastardly than just the sum of their two values implies, though, as measures that government agencies might take to curb inflation, like raising interest rates and overall tightening monetary policy, reduces business investment which can lead to unemployment. On the flip-side, though, things a government might do to reduce unemployment, like injecting more money into the economy, tends to spike inflation.It's a lose-lose situation, basically, and that's why government agencies tasked with keeping things moving along steadily go far out of their way to avoid stagflation; it's not easily addressed, and it only really goes away with time, and sometimes a very long time.There are two primary variables that have historically led to stagflation: supply shocks and government policies that reduce output and increase the money supply too rapidly.The stagflation many countries experienced in the 1970s was the result of Middle Eastern oil producing nations cutting off the flow of oil to countries that supported Israel during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, though a sharp increase in money supply and the end of the Bretton Woods money management system, which caused exchange rate issues between global currencies, also contributed, and perhaps even more so than the oil shock.What I'd like to talk about today is another major variable, the implementation of a huge package of new tariffs on pretty much everyone by the US, that many economists are saying could lead to a new period of stagflation, alongside other, more immediate consequences.—A tariff is a type of tax that's imposed on imported goods, usually targeting specific types of goods, or goods from a particular place.Way back in the day these were an important means of funding governments: the US government actually made most of its revenue, about 90% of it, from tariffs before 1863, because there just wasn't a whole of lot other ways for the young country to make money at the time.Following the War of 1812, the US government attempted to double tariffs, but that depleted international trade, which led to less income, not more—gross imports dropped by 71%, and the government scrambled to implement direct and excise taxes, the former of which is the tax a person or business pays that isn't based on transactions, while the latter is a duty that's paid upon the manufacture of something, as opposed to when it's sold.Tariffs resurfaced in the following decades, but accounted for less and less of the government's income as the country's manufacturing base increased, and excise and income taxes made up 63% of the US's federal revenue by 1865.Tax sources have changes a lot over the years, and they vary somewhat from country to country.But the dominant move in the 20th century, especially post-WWII, has been toward free trade, which usually means no or low tariffs on goods being made in one place and sold in another, in part because this tends to lead to more wealth for everyone, on average, at least.This refocus toward globalized free trade resulted in a lot of positives, like being able to specialize and make things where they're cheap and sell them where they're precious, but also some negatives, like the offshoring of jobs—though even those negatives, which sucked for the people who lost their jobs, have been positive for some, as the companies who offshored the jobs did so because it saved them money, the folks who were hired were generally paid more than was possible in their region, previously, and the people consuming the resulting goods were able to get them cheaper than would otherwise be feasible.It's been a mixed bag, then, but the general consensus among economists is that open trade is good because it incentivizes competition and productivity. Governments are less likely to implement protectionist policies to preserve badly performing local business entities from better performing foreign versions of the same, and that means less wasted effort and resources, more options for everyone, and more efficient overall economic operation, which contributes to global flourishing. And not for nothing, nations that trade with each other tend to be less likely to go to war with each other.Now that's a massively simplified version of the argument, but again, that's been the outline for how things are meant to work, and aside from some obvious exceptions—like China's protection of its local tech sector from foreign competition, and the US's protection of its aviation and car industries—it's generally worked as intended, and the world has become massively wealthier during this period compared to before this state of affairs was broadly implemented, post-WWII; there's simply no comparison, the difference is stark.There are renewed concerns about stagflation in the United States, however, because of a big announcement made by US President Trump on April 2, 2025, that slapped substantial and at times simply massive new tariffs on just about everyone, including the country's longest-term allies and most valuable trading partners.On what the president called “Liberation Day,” he announced two new types of tariff: one is a universal 10% import duty on all goods brought into the US, and another that he called a reciprocal tariff on imports from scores of countries, including 15 that will be hit especially hard—a list that includes China, EU nations, Canada, and Japan, among others.The theory of these so-called reciprocal tariffs is that Trump thinks the US is being taken advantage of, as, to use one example that he cited, the US charges a 2.5% tariff on imported cars, while the EU charges a 10% tariff on American cars imported to their union.The primary criticism of this approach, which has been cited by most economists and entities like the World Trade Organization, is that the numbers the US administration apparently used to make this list don't really add up, and seem to include some made-up measures of trade deficits, which some analysts suspect were calculated by AI tools like ChatGPT, as the same incorrect measures are spat out by commonly use chatbots like ChatGPT when they're asked about how to balance these sorts of things. But the important takeaway, however they arrived at these numbers, is that the comparisons used aren't really sensical when you look at the details.Some countries simply can't afford American exports, for instance, while others have no use for them. The idea that a country that can't afford American goods should have astoundingly large tariffs applied to their exports to the US is questionable from the get-go, but it also means the goods they produce, which might be valuable and important for Americans, be they raw materials like food or manufactured goods like car parts, will become more expensive for Americans, either because those Americans have to pay a higher price necessitated by the tax, or because the lower-price supplier is forced out of the market and replaced by a higher-price alternative.In short, the implied balance of these tariffs don't line up with reality, according to essentially everyone except folks working within Trump's administration, and the question then is what the actual motivation behind them might be.The Occam's Razor answer is that Trump and/or people in his administration simply don't understand tariffs and global economics well enough to understand that their theory on the matter is wrong. And many foreign leaders have said these tariffs are not in any way reciprocal, and that the calculation used to draw them up was, in the words of Germany's economic minister, “nonsense.” That's the general consensus of learned people, and the only folks who seem to be saying otherwise are the one's responsible for drawing these tariffs up, and defending them in the press.Things have been pretty stellar for most of the global economy since free trade became the go-to setup for imports and exports, but this administration is acting as if the opposite is true. That might be a feigned misunderstanding, or it might be genuine; they might truly not understand the difference between how things have been post-WWII and how they were back in the 1800s when tariffs were the go-to method of earning government revenue.But in either case, Trump is promising that rewiring the global order, the nature of default international trade in this way, will be good for Americans because rather than serving as a linchpin for that global setup, keeping things orderly by serving as the biggest market in the world, the American economy will be a behemoth that gets what it's owed, even if at the expense of others—a winner among losers who keep playing because they can't afford not to, rather than a possibly slightly less winning winner amongst other winners.This theory seems to have stemmed from a 1980s understanding of things, which is a cultural and economic milieu from which a lot of Trump's views and ideas seem to have originated, despite in many cases having long since been disproved or shown to be incomplete. But it's also a premise that may be more appealing to very wealthy people, because a lot of the negative consequences from these tariffs will be experienced by people in lower economic classes and people from poorer nations, where the price hikes will be excruciating, and folks in the middle class, whose wealth is primarily kept in stocks. Folks in the higher economic echolons, including those making most of these decisions, tend to make and build their wealth via other means, which won't be entirely unimpacted, but will certainly be less hurt by these moves than everyone else.It's also possible, and this seems more likely to me, but it's of course impossible to know the truth of the matter right now, that Trump is implementing a huge version of his go-to negotiating tactic of basically hurting the folks on the other end of a negotiation in order to establish leverage over them, and then starting that negotiation by asking what they'll do for him if he limits or stops the pain.The US is expected to suffer greatly from these tariffs, but other countries, especially those that rely heavily on the US market as their consumer base, and in some cases for a huge chunk of their economy, their total GDP, will suffer even more.There's a good chance many countries, in public or behind closed doors, will look at the numbers and decide that it makes more sense to give Trump and his administration something big, up front, in exchange for a lessening of these tariffs. That's what seems to be happening with Vietnam, already, and Israel, and there's a good chance other nations have already put out feelers to see what he might want in exchange for some preferential treatment in this regard—early reports suggest at least 50 governments have done exactly that since the announcement, though those reports are coming from within the White House, so it's probably prudent to take them with a grain of salt, at this point. That said, this sort of messaging from the White House suggests that the administration might be hoping for a bunch of US-favoring deals and will therefore make a lot of noise about initial negotiations to signal that that's what they want, and that the pain can go away if everyone just kowtows a little and gestures at some new trade policies that favor the US and make Trump look like a master negotiator who's bringing the world to heel.There's been pushback against this potentiality, however, led by China, which has led with its own, very large counter-tariffs rather than negotiating, and the EU looks like it might do the same. If enough governments do this, it could call Trump's bluff while also making these other entities, perhaps especially China, which was first out the door with counter-tariffs and statements about not be cowed by the US's bluster, seem like the natural successors to the US in terms of global economic leadership. It could result in the US giving away all that soft power, basically, and that in turn could realign global trade relationships and ultimately other sorts of relationships, too, in China's favor.One other commonly cited possibility, and this is maybe the grimmest of the three, but it's not impossible, is that Trump and other people in his administration recognize that the world is changing, that China is ascendent and the US is by some metrics not competing in the way it needs to in order to keep up and retain its dominance, and that's true in terms of things like manufacturing and research, but also the potential implications of AI, changing battlefield tactics, and so on. And from that perspective, it maybe makes sense to just shake the game board, knocking over all the pieces rather than trying to win by adhering to what have become common conventions and normal rules of play.If everyone takes a hit, if there's a global recession or depression and everything is knocked asunder because those variables that led to where we are today, with all their associated pros and cons, are suddenly gone, that might lead to a situation in which the US is hurt, but not as badly as everyone else, including entities like China. And because the US did the game board shaking, the US may thus be in a better position as everything settles back into a new state of affairs; a new state of affairs that Trump and his people want to be more favorable to the US, long-term.There's some logic to this thinking, even if it's a very grim, me-first, zero-sum kind of logic. The US economy is less reliant on global trade than the rest of the G20, the wealthiest countries in the world; only about 25% of its GDP is derived from trade, while that number is 37% for China, 63% for France, and a whopping 88% for Germany.Other nations are in a relatively more vulnerable position than the US in a less-open, more tariff-heavy world, then, and that means the US administration may have them over a barrel, making the aforementioned US-favoring negotiations more likely, but also, again, potentially just hurting everyone, but the US less so. And when I say hurting, I mean some countries losing a huge chunk of their economy overnight, triggering a lot more poverty, maybe stagflation and famines, and possibly even revolutions, as people worldwide experience a shocking and sudden decrease in both wealth and future economic outlook.Already, just days after Trump announced his tariffs, global markets are crashing, with US markets on track to record its second-worst three-day decline in history, after only the crash of 1987—so that's worse than even the crashes that followed 9/11, the Covid-19 pandemic, the debt crisis, and many others.Foreign markets are doing even worse, though, with Hong Kong's recently high-flying Hang Seng falling 13% in trading early this week, and Japan's Nikkei dropping 8%.Other market markers are also dropping, the price of oil falling to a pandemic-era level of $60 per barrel, Bitcoin losing 10% in a day, and even the US dollar, which theoretically should rise in a tariff scenario, dropping 0.1%—which suggests investors are planning for a damaging recession, and the US market and currency as a whole might be toxic for a while; which could, in turn, lead to a boom for the rest of the world, the US missing out on that boom.There are also simpler theories, I should mention, that tariffs may be meant to generate more profits to help pay for Trump's expanded tax cuts without requiring he touch the third-rails of Medicare or Social Security, or that they're meant to address the US's booming debt by causing investors to flee to Treasury bills, which has the knock-on effect of reducing the interest rates that have to be paid on government debt.That flight toward Treasuries is already happening, though it seems to be primarily because investors are fleeing the market as stocks collapse in value and everyone's worrying about their future, about stagflation, and about mass layoffs and unemployment.It may be that all or most of these things are true, too, by the way, and that this jumble of events, pros and cons alike, are seen as a net-positive by this administration.For what it's worth, too, the US Presidency doesn't typically get to set things like tariffs—that's congress' responsibility and right. But because Congress is currently controlled by Republicans, they've yet to push back on these tariffs with a veto, and they may not. There are rumblings within the president's party about this, and a lot of statements about how it'll ultimately be good, but that maybe they would have done things differently, but there hasn't been any real action yet, just hedging. And that could remain the case, but if things get bad enough, they could be forced by their constituents to take concrete action on the matter before Trump's promised, theoretical positive outcomes have the chance to emerge, or not.Show Noteshttps://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20060925_RL33665_4a8c6781ce519caa3e6b82f95c269f73021c5fdf.pdfhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariffhttps://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/03/31/tariffs-affect-consumer-spending/https://www.wsj.com/tech/exempt-or-not-the-chip-industry-wont-escape-tariffs-a6c771dbhttps://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/goldman-sachs-lifts-u-s-recession-probability-to-35-ce285ebchttps://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-am-9d85eb00-1184-11f0-8b11-0da1ebc288e3.htmlhttps://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-democrats-economy-protests-financial-markets-90afa4079acbde1deb223adf070c1e98https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trade-war-explodes-across-world-at-pace-not-seen-in-decades-0b6d6513https://www.mufgamericas.com/sites/default/files/document/2025-04/The-Long-Shadow-of-William-McKinley.pdfhttps://x.com/krishnanrohit/status/1907587352157106292https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/04/business/trump-stocks-tariffs-trade.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/05/opinion/trump-tariffs-theories.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/world/asia/vietnam-trump-tariff-delay.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/world/europe/trade-trump-tariffs-brexit.htmlhttps://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/04/why-do-domestic-prices-rise-with-tarriffs.htmlhttps://www.foxnews.com/politics/how-we-got-liberation-day-look-trumps-past-comments-tariffshttps://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/trumps-tariff-strategy-can-be-traced-back-to-the-1980s/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/12/us/politics/trump-tv-stock-market.htmlhttps://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdfhttps://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/over-50-countries-push-for-tariff-revisions-will-donald-trump-compromise-heres-what-the-white-house-said/articleshow/120043664.cmshttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/business/stock-market-plunge-investment-bank-impact.htmlhttps://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-trump-tariffs-trade-war-04-07-25https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-trump-tariff-foreign-policy-6934e493https://www.wsj.com/economy/in-matter-of-days-outlook-shifts-from-solid-growth-to-recession-risk-027eb2b4https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Asia-Pacific-stocks-sink-from-Trump-s-tariff-barrage-Hong-Kong-down-13https://www.reuters.com/markets/eu-seeks-unity-first-strike-back-trump-tariffs-2025-04-06/https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/04/07/trump-presidency-news-tariffs/https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/07/world/asia/china-trade-war-tariffs.htmlhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-04-07/global-rout-carries-whiff-of-panic-as-trump-holds-fast-on-tariffshttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflationhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/economists-fed-recent-projections-signal-120900777.htmlhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisishttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_stagnation This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit letsknowthings.substack.com/subscribe

US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said there is no postponing tariffs and April 9th tariffs are coming; tariffs are going to stay in place for days and weeks.US NEC Director Hassett said more than 50 countries have reached out to the White House to begin trade negotiations.Fed Chair Powell said on Friday that it feels like the Fed does not need to be in a hurry and has time; it is not clear what the path of monetary policy should be.APAC stocks resumed last week's heavy selling, US equity futures (ES -3.5%, NQ -4.3%, RTY -3.7%) have slumped, Europe set to open lower (Eurostoxx 50 future -4.1%).DXY remains on the backfoot, EUR/USD hit resistance at the 1.10 mark, Cable sits around the 1.29 level, CHF and JPY outperform.US yields are lower once again and in bull-steepening mode, crude prices continue to feel the squeeze.Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Output, EZ Sentix Index, Retail Sales, US Employment Trends, ECB's Cipollone.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Asian indexes fell sharply on Monday in the wake of US President Donald Trump's tariffs, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index marking its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Meanwhile, European trade ministers meet in Luxembourg to formulate a response – hoping for a negotiated solution but preparing to retaliate.

Special Monday Edition: Global travel stocks suffered steep declines on Monday, with major markets in Asia, the Middle East, and Europe seeing significant selloffs due to mounting fears over global tariffs and economic instability. The Hang Seng index dropped over 13%, its worst fall since 1997, while travel-linked stocks like Trip.com and Alibaba plunged by double digits. European airlines and hotel giants also took hits, with IAG, Lufthansa, Accor, and IHG all posting substantial losses amid concerns about falling transatlantic travel demand and trade war impacts. In the Middle East, markets continued a downward slide, compounded by plunging oil prices and significant losses in companies like Saudi Aramco, adding to fears about tourism investment in the region. Read the full story on Skift. Connect with Skift LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/skift/ WhatsApp: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaAL375LikgIXmNPYQ0L/ Facebook: https://facebook.com/skiftnews Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/skiftnews/ Threads: https://www.threads.net/@skiftnews Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/skiftnews.bsky.social X: https://twitter.com/skift Subscribe to @SkiftNews and never miss an update from the travel industry.

Peter Boockvar explains why investors must discard the playbook that has worked for the past few years due to three major shifts: the end of the MAG7 tech trade, potential cuts in government spending, and declining foreign flows into US assets. Boockvar notes that these seven stocks reached 35% of the S&P 500 - exceeding the concentration seen in March 2000 - while becoming a global "reserve currency" with central banks like Norway's Norges Bank and the Swiss National Bank owning billions in shares. He identifies emerging opportunities in international markets, with the German DAX up 17% and Hang Seng up 20% year-to-date, while warning that reduced government spending combined with weakening tech investment creates recession risk. Boockvar believes the Fed has diminished power in a new 3-4% inflation environment, pointing to record copper prices as evidence while noting that US defense manufacturers and technology companies face growing international competition.This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: Substack/The Boock Report: https://boockreport.com/Twitter/X: https://x.com/pboockvarBleakley Financial Group: https://www.bleakley.com/Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction and welcome Peter Boockvar0:55 Big picture market changes post-COVID3:22 End of AI tech trade dominance5:50 Foreign central bank investment in US stocks7:47 Market pivot to international opportunities10:12 Fed and Treasury coordination on bond yields12:34 Market bounce and valuation concerns14:28 New inflationary environment limiting Fed options16:53 Record copper prices amid inflation volatility18:02 Geopolitical shifts in commodity holdings20:17 Investment opportunities in China tech22:42 Portfolio management in changing market leadership25:12 Foreign flows into US stocks and dollar implications28:21 Recession risk assessment30:33 Closing thoughts on investment approach changes32:57 Final remarks and sign-off

This week we talk about tariffs, consumer confidence, and trade wars.We also discuss inflation, GDP, and uncertainty.Recommended Book: A Brief History of Intelligence by Max S. BennettTranscriptOn January 20, 2025, mere hours after being sworn into his second term in office as President of the United States, Donald Trump announced new 25% tariffs on most incoming goods from Canada and Mexico, accusing the two allies of failing to halt the flow of drugs and illegal migrants into the US. These tariffs would go into effect on February 1, he said, and they would be in addition to existing tariffs that were already in effect for specific import categories.On that same day, he also speculated that he might impose a universal tariff on all imports, saying that he believed all countries, allies or not, were taking advantage of the US, and he didn't like that.Less than a week later, Trump announced that he would impose 25% tariffs on all good from Colombia, with immediate effect, and would double that tariff to 50% within a week. This appears to have been a punishment for the Colombian government's decision to turn back planes full of immigrants the US government deported and sent their way, without approval from the intended recipient of those deported people, the Colombian government. There was a minor tiff between these governments, but the White House declared victory on the matter later that night, saying the tariffs would be held in reserve, implying they could come back at any time if their demands are not met.An executive order implementing the threatened 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico was signed on February 1, and a new 10% tariff on China went into effect the same day. Countermeasures were threatened by everyone involved, and after Trump published a social media post saying there would probably be economic pain for a while, his government agreed to a 30 day pause on tariffs for Mexico and Canada, while also threatening new tariffs against the European Union; another long-time US ally.The new 10% tariff on Chinese imports went into effect on February 4, and China retaliated with its own counter-tariffs on US goods, including things like farm machinery and energy products. It also implemented new restrictions on the export of rare earth minerals to the US—a category of raw materials everyone is scrambling to secure, as they're vital for the production of batteries and other fundamental technologies—and they launched a new antimonopoly investigation into Google, which deals with some Chinese companies.On February 10, Trump reimposed a 25% tariff on all foreign steel and aluminum; a move that made US metal companies happy, but essentially all other US companies very unhappy, and in mid-February he threatened even more, broad, and vague tariffs on basically everyone, saying he's doing what he's doing in order to force companies to move manufacturing infrastructure back to the US, after decades of offshoring everything.At the end of February, Trump said the delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico would go into effect, as planned, on March 4, alongside those new 10% tariffs on China. On that day, Canada implemented its own counter-tariffs on the US to the tune of 25% on about $155 billion of US goods imported by the country.Canada and Mexico send about 80% of their exports to the US market, so their economies are expected to be hit hard by this trade war. China, in contrast, only sends about 15% of its exports to the US, so the impact will be more tempered.These three countries, though, are the US's largest trading partners, collectively accounting for over 40% of US imports and exports. In addition to buying a lot of US goods, they also export the majority of things like oil, beer, copper wire, chocolate, and other goods that the US consumes; and the cost of tariffs are almost always passed on to the end-consumer, so higher tariffs on these sorts of goods mean raised prices on a lot of stuff across the economy.On March 6, after a lot of back-and-forth with US automakers and with the Mexican and Canadian governments, a lot of the tariffs placed on goods from these countries were suspended, the US government denying that their withdrawal had anything to do with the US market, which was suffering in response to this wave of economic disruptions—though many tariffs were kept in place, and Trump said the US would still impose tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports beginning on March 12.On the 12th, the EU and Canada announced a new wave of retaliatory tariffs against the US, though the European side said they would hold off on their implementation of these tariffs, waiting till April 1 to see what happens. The next day, Trump threatened a 200% charge on alcoholic products from the EU in response to their planned 50% tariffs on US whiskey and other products within their borders.At the moment, as of mid-March 2025, a lot of these tariffs are still speculative, as it's generally understood, from Trump's bombastic approach to deal-making and his previous backtracking from these sorts of threats, that many of these tariffs could disappear, announced solely to provide leverage against those Trump wants to squeeze for more concessions and what he considers to be more favorable trade terms. Some of them could become concrete reality, though, and part of the issue here is that it's nearly impossible to know which is which, because there also seems to be a larger effort to rewire the US and global economies by this administration—and that effort, plus the uncertainty caused by tariffs and similar actions, are leading to some pretty severe market upsets within the US, and resultantly around the world, as well.And that's what I'd like to talk about today: the impacts of these tariffs and other actions by this administration, so far, and what might happen next, based on currently available numbers and analysis.—Economies are ridiculously complex systems, and it's impossible to say with 100% certainty what caused what, and to what degree things would be different had some other path been taken by those in control of various regulatory and economic levers.That said, the nonpartisan Tax Foundation has estimated that just those first batch of proposed tariffs by the US government, not including impacts from foreign retaliations, which could be substantial, will reduce US GDP by about 0.4% and reduce total hours worked by the equivalent of 309,000 full-time jobs; so a lot less output, and a lot less overall productivity.That's on top of the estimated 0.2% long-term decrease in US GDP caused by the first Trump administration's tariffs, which were maintained by the subsequent Biden administration.These existing tariffs raised prices in the US and reduced both output and employment, which means the boom the US economy saw under the Biden administration might have been even boomier, had those tariffs been dropped. But now they're more or less locked in, and these new tariffs will probably amplify their effect, near-term and long-term.On top of that, the constant threats and pullbacks and seemingly off-the-cuff decisions to implement what amounts to all sorts of huge-scale taxes on a frenetic array of goods, including luxuries, but also some very fundamental things, like the metals we use to build and manufacture basically everything, is stoking uncertainty throughout the US and global economies.That uncertainty has wide-ranging impacts, but one of the most direct consequences is that consumer sentiment in the US has nose-dived, as ordinary people worry about the combined impacts of tariffs, cuts to government programs, layoffs across government agencies, and new restrictions on immigration, which even ignoring the human element of such things can cause all sorts of issues across industries that rely on immigrant workers to stay afloat.In mid-March of this year, US consumer sentiment hit 57.9, down from 64.7 in February. That's the lowest its been since November of 2022, it's down 27% from a year earlier, and it's a lot lower than economist predictions for this month, which were set at 63.2.Consumer sentiment tells us how people are feeling about the economy, about their potential to earn, and about where things are going. This influences how people spend, how they consume, and that in turn helps determine how the overall economy will go in the coming years, as people will be more likely to hunker down and save, taking as few risks as possible and making fewer purchases if they believe things will be rough; which in some cases can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, because those behaviors tend to shrink the economy, which leads to less output, fewer investments being made, more layoffs, and so on. That means a drop in consumer sentiment can make things bad even if they would otherwise be good, but if they're bad already, they can become even worse because folks stop doing things that would improve the economy, out of self-preservation.And that impact can be just as pronounced when things are weird and wobbly, rather than outright bad, as seems to be the case in the US at the moment.There's no firm evidence that the US economy is destined for a recession at this point, but the Russell 2000 index, which is made up of smaller companies than indexes like the S&P 500, and which is thus more prone to on-the-ground variables than its larger index kin, has dropped more than 16% since November, when it hit a new high on optimism about what the new Trump administration might do for businesses and the economy.The S&P 500 also collapsed, though about half as much, and it rallied somewhat last week as investors bought the dip, scooping up stocks at lower prices following that drop. But there's a lot of speculation that this might be a so-called dead cat bounce recovery—a moment in which a market seems to be recovering from a drop, but where it's actually just bouncing up a little before heading back downward—and even this index, which is packed with corporations that are less susceptible to brief market wobbles than those in the Russell, might be heading for another downswing in the coming weeks, based on a lot of the economic numbers used to predict such things, at the moment.One such metric is interest in alternative assets like gold, and the price of gold hit a new high last Friday, surpassing $3,000 per ounce for the first time ever.That's not something you tend to see when markets are healthy and people expect them to do well; if they are healthy and expected to surge rather than collapse, people tend to put their money in the market, not in shiny metals. But the shiny metals bet seems to be appealing right now, which hints at an even broader suspicion of the US economy than even that consumer sentiment and those bad market figures anticipate.And the market figures have been bad. In just 3 weeks, beginning on February 19, the S&P alone lost more than $5 trillion in value.The Atlanta Fed, which uses a fairly reliable model to predict future US GDP numbers, was predicting a healthy nearly 4% increase for the US's GDP for the first quarter of 2025 back in late-January, early-February, but that prediction plummeted from positive 4% to negative 2.4% by early March.That figure could still change, as it's informed by data that don't all arrive at the same time, but it's still a staggering drop, and it reflects the impact of all these tariffs, but also all the destruction of government programs and agencies, the mass firings, and of course the uncertainty caused by all of these things in aggregate, alongside the impacts of said uncertainty on everyone at all scales, from trade partners to US-based small businesses to individual consumers.So few people and institutions are happy about what's happening right now, but it does look like, in the immediate future, at least, there are some beneficiaries of all this tumult.Markets in China are flourishing, especially Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, which is up more than 20% since Trump's inauguration on January 20. And Europe's market, which has struggled with stasis for years now, is up more than 4% over that same period.Uncertainty about markets, but also military alliances, especially NATO, have pushed Germany—which has struggled since Russia invaded Ukraine, when their energy markets were utterly scrambled, which in turn hobbled their massive manufacturing base—Germany has unleashed a huge amount of government funds on their economy, and that big uptick in spending has helped basically the whole EU market grow. The German government has traditionally been tight-pocketed, but a declaration by the incoming Chancellor that they would do whatever it takes to both defend themselves and boost their economic outlook in the face of unreliable backing from their long-time ally, the US, has bolstered enthusiasm and optimism throughout the region, bringing EU nations closer together, increasing spending on all sorts of fundamentals, and bringing them closer to the Canadian government, as well.The Chinese government has recently indicated they'll be injecting a bunch of money and other types of support in their economy, as well, which creates a stark contrast with the US government, which seems to be refocusing on pulling government resources from across society and the economy, and spending mostly on tax cuts for the wealthiest people and biggest companies, instead.The US government's efforts to go America first, and not do anyone, even its longest-term, most reliable allies, any favors, or even trade in what might be considered a balanced way, thus seems to be scrambling US markets while simultaneously stoking those that are being cut off, unifying aspects of the rest of the world in antagonism against the US, while also providing them with incentive to reinvest in their own markets; which could be good for them long-term, making them less reliant on the US in all sorts of ways, but which seems pretty bad for the US in particular, short-term, and casts the US-dominated global order into disarray for the immediate future, with all sorts of consequences, economic and otherwise.The degree to which this impacts Trump's approval ratings has yet to be seen, as while his approval is collapsing, especially on the economy, right now, a lot of the most serious economic impacts are expected to fall hard on regions that most enthusiastically voted for him, and Republican talking points have already pivoted toward messaging that implies suffering for a while is good and patriotic.That message might succeed and keep people on side even as their investments collapse and tariff-driven inflation hits their bottom-lines, or it might not. But it seems like the administration is ramping up for a version of austerity that doesn't actually reduce the deficit, but instead takes a bunch of money from programs and investments that helped these areas, and moves it to other stuff that mostly helps fund tax cuts for wealthy allies of the administration—and that could come back to bite them, come election season.All of this is also happening in parallel to the many political maneuverings of the administration and its opposition, though, and just recently the Republican-held congress was able to pass a funding bill, moving a lot more authority and control to the White House; so whatever the short-term approval numbers show, none of this seems to be having much of a negative impact on Trump's control of government. That could change, though, over the course of the next year, leading into 2026's midterm election, when the makeup of congress could be influenced by these and similar decisions.Show Noteshttps://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-rise-after-volatile-week-consumer-data-tap-2025-03-14/https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/consumer-confidence-march-2025-drops-trump-trade-e7e0964dhttps://www.axios.com/2025/03/15/economic-indicators-recession-riskhttps://www.cnn.com/2025/03/14/investing/gold-price-today-3000-ounce-intl/index.htmlhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/14/us-stock-market-loses-5-trillion-in-value-in-three-weeks.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/business/russell-2000-bear-market.htmlhttps://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/us/politics/stock-market-correction-trump-tariffs.htmlhttps://www.nfib.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/NFIB-SBET-Report-Feb.-2025.pdfhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/your-money/car-shopping-trump-tariffs-cfpb.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/16/business/trump-sp-500-stocks-europe-china.htmlhttps://archive.ph/GNPRfhttps://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/issues/economyhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/15/business/economy/tariffs-trump-maps-voters.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/15/us/politics/trump-spending-bill-government-shutdown.htmlhttps://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/investing-stocks-risk-strategies-trump-policies-c4a5d3d9https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/trump-trade-tariffs-us-dollar-value-814cbe37https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-nasdaq-sp500-03-17-2025https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/16/wall-street-hoped-scott-bessent-would-keep-trump-in-check-he-had-other-ideas-00231771https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-mergers-acquisitions-ipos-hiring-slumps-trump-tariffs-2025-3https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/14/trump-trade-wars-consumer-sentiment-00230833https://archive.ph/fUKPshttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/13/business/economy/trump-tariff-timeline.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/business/energy-environment/trump-energy-oil-gas.htmlhttps://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/ This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit letsknowthings.substack.com/subscribe

S&P futures are pointing to a higher open today, up +0.55%. Asian markets rebounded on Wednesday, led by a +2.8% surge in Hong Kong's Hang Seng, driven by optimism over supportive policy measures announced at China's NPC. European markets also opened higher, as markets are reacting positively to Germany's proposed infrastructure fund and hopes for easing trade tensions.Companies Mentioned: Google, BlackRock

Following lower closes on Monday and Tuesday, S&P futures are indicating to a higher open today, up +0.45%. Asia markets ended mixed on Wednesday. The Hang Seng surged over +3%, hitting nearly three-year highs, fueled by a rally in Chinese technology stocks after DeepSeek reopened its core programming interface. However, Japan, Australia, and Singapore indices all ended slightly lower. European markets opened higher today, supported by strong earnings reports, though trade-related uncertainty remains a key overhang.Companies Mentioned: Nvidia, Arthur J. Gallagher, Flywire, Light & Wonder

Following lower closes yesterday, S&P futures are still pointing to a softer open today, down (0.13%). Asian markets were firmly lower on Tuesday, with the Nikkei dropping (1.4%) as it hit the lower end of its five-month trading range. The Hang Seng fell (1.3%) but saw mid-morning dip buying in tech stocks, supported by mainland inflows. European markets opened mixed but are edging higher, while bond yields are finding support amid safe-haven buying. Companies Mentioned: Apple, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Solventum Corp, Starbucks

S&P futures are up +0.08% as of now, pointing to a marginally higher open as markets weigh the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes and the potential impact of new U.S. tariffs on autos, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. Asian markets delivered a mixed performance on Wednesday. The Hang Seng fell slightly but saw continued gains in its tech index. European markets are mixed in early trading. Companies Mentioned: HP Inc, Shift4, Colgate-Palmolive, X Corp (formerly Twitter)