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Riding on momentum from Tuesday's fresh record highs, S&P futures are up +0.3% and pointing to another higher open. Asian markets closed broadly higher, led by the Hang Seng's +1% gain and the Kospi nearing its record high. European equity markets are also firmer in early trades with major benchmarks all edging higher. AI expansion continues to drive positive sentiment in the tech sector, with Asian semis stocks benefiting from a rally in US peers. Oracle surged +28% after reporting strong growth in cloud infrastructure bookings, while Google Cloud shared a bullish update, projecting that at least 55% of its $106B in customer commitments will convert to revenue within two years. Companies Mentioned: KKR, Airbus, Oracle, Google, Chevron

Singapore shares moved higher today amid a winning day in Asia. The Straits Times Index was up 1.08% at 4,344.16 points at 2.00pm Singapore time, with a value turnover of S$1.02B seen in the broader market. In terms of companies to watch, we have Frasers Property given how its chief executive officer of emerging markets, Asia, Lim Hua Tiong, will assume the additional role of CEO of Frasers Property (Thailand) effective from Oct 1, 2025. Meanwhile, from a record day on Wall Street after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down the number of new jobs in the 12 months through March by a record 911,000, to how DBS shares hit an all time high to boost the STI to a record, more international and corporate headlines remained in focus. On Market View, Money Matters’ finance presenter Chua Tian Tian unpacked the developments with Audrey Ho, Investment Counselor, Citigold Private Client, Citibank Singapore.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The three major averages on Wall St rose to record territory on Tuesday as investors looked past current concerns over the US economic stability and bought into market opportunities. The Dow Jones rose added 0.43%, the S&P500 climbed 0.27% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day up 0.37%. Revisions to payrolls data of late has been the key catalyst spooking investors with the latest revision by the labour department coming in at a reduction of 911,000 for the 12-months to March this year signalling weakness in the US labour stability. In Europe overnight, markets closed mostly higher with the STOXX600 rising 0.09%, while Germany's DAX fell 0.37%, the French CAC added 0.23% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.23%.Across the Asia region on Tuesday, markets closed mixed with Japan's Nikkei falling 0.42% while South Korea's Kospi index gained 1.26%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.19% and China's CSI index fell 0.7%.The local market sell-off to start September has extended into the new trading week with the key index ending Tuesday's session down 0.52% as investor sentiment has been hit lately by further tariff, US economic and rate outlook uncertainty.Westpac consumer confidence data for September and NAB business confidence data for August were also both released yesterday with declines in both readings more than economists were expecting amid uncertainty on an economic level.Energy stocks continued their slide this week following OPEC+'s weekend decision to increase production of oil starting in October.Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX:TLX) gained over 2% after reaching a deal with the US Food and Drug Administration to file a revised application for its brain cancer imaging agent, incorporating further clinical data. What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.71% higher at US$62.71/barrel, gold is up 0.12% at US$3640/ounce and iron ore is up 0.42% at US$104.93/tonne.The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 65.84 US cents, 97.06 Japanese Yen, 48.62 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 11 cents.Ahead of the midweek trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.05%. Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) from $7.65 to $9.35 and maintain a sell rating on the leading rare earths producer following the company highlighting its ‘Towards 2030 strategy'. The analyst sees LYC is priced for perfection, with little room for error, highlighting FY25 had higher depreciation which drove a miss on results, however, does recognise that the current themes pushing LYC higher are likely to persist as tailwinds over the short term.And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Breville Group (ASX:BRG) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 33-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $30.89 to the range of $25 - $26.25 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed lower on Friday as investor fears of a slowing economy rose after key U.S. non-farm payrolls data came in much weaker than expected. The Dow lost 0.5%, the Nasdaq declined 0.03% and the S&P 500 ended the day down 0.32%.For the month of August nonfarm payrolls increased by only 22,000 jobs, significantly lower than the 75,000 jobs economists were expecting to be added. U.S. unemployment rate also rose to 4.3% for the month, up from 4.2% signalling a weakening labour market.While a rate cut out of the Fed is almost certain now, investors are more concerned over the long-term impact of a slowing economy, and fears of a recession continue to rise.In Europe on Friday markets closed lower as investors in the region also assessed the weakening economic condition of the U.S. following a weaker than expected jobs reading out on Friday. The STOXX 600 fell 0.2%, Germany's DAX lost 0.73%, the French CAC declined 0.31%, and in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.09%.Across the Asia region on Friday markets closed mostly higher after President Trump formalised lower tariffs on Japanese auto tariffs with a baseline tariff of 15% across all Japanese imports. Japan's Nikkei rose 1.03%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.71% and South Korea's Kospi index added 0.13%.Locally on Friday the ASX200 posted a 0.51% rise on Friday as real estate and discretionary stocks rose 1.37% and 1.33% respectively.Gold stocks gained further ground on Friday amid the record price of the precious commodity as investors once again flocked to safe-haven assets in the wake of further global uncertainty.Qantas (ASX:QAN) shares rose 1.5% on Friday on news that chief executive Vanessa Hudson's bonus would be docked over the airline's recent cybersecurity breach, while Orica shares added over 1% after the company signalled positive momentum is driving higher underlying earnings across its business for H2 ending September 30. What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 2.38% lower at US$61.97/barrel, gold is up 1.3% at US$3592.50/ounce, and iron ore is down 0.04% at US$104.49/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.57 U.S. cents, 97.10 Japanese yen, 48.53 British pence, and 1 New Zealand dollar and 11 cents.Ahead of the first session of the new trading week the SPI futures are anticipating the market will open the day down 0.2%.Trading ideas:Bell Potter has increased the rating on Technology One (ASX:TNE) from a sell to a hold and have maintained the 12-month price target on the company at $35.75/share, amid changes in forecasting for the company with Bell Potter's analyst and the market anticipating a beat in November. At a stock specific level, we do not see much risk of any disappointment or negative catalyst and, as mentioned, we already expect the company to exceed its guidance when it reports in November.And Bell Potter has also reduced the rating on Curvebeam AI (ASX:CVB) from a spec buy to a hold and have a 15cps price target on the company following the release of the company's FY25 results including revenues and gross profit of $12.1m and $6.7m respectively. The reason for the downgrade to a hold comes from lack of guidance, Hi rise device sales continuing to be constrained by the Mako validation matter and the hybrid of capitalised earnings.

Wall St closed lower on Tuesday to kick off the September trading month in the red as investors took profits from the summer bull rally and hold concerns over tariff uncertainty after a federal appeals court on Friday ruled that most of Trump's global tariffs are illegal. The Nasdaq lost 0.82%, the S&P500 dropped 0.7% and the Dow Jones ended the day down 0.55%.In Europe overnight, markets tumbled amid a rise in bond yields and the prospect of further tariff uncertainty out of the US. The STOXX 600 fell 1.5%, Germany's DAX fell 2.2%, the French CAC lost 0.7% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.9%.Across the Asia region on Tuesday, market sentiment was hit by tariff uncertainty leading to a mixed session in the region. Japan's Nikkei rose 0.3%, India's Nifty 50 gained 0.3%, South Korea's Kospi Index rose 0.94%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng ended the day down 0.5%.The local market started the new trading month lower with a 0.3% decline on Tuesday as investors digested the August reporting season showing a weaker outcome than expected for FY25 and repositioned portfolios for the tailwinds expected in FY26. Australia's August reporting season delivered weaker-than-expected results, with only 20-30 % of companies beating earnings expectations compared with more than 80% in the US. Median earnings downgrades of 3.6% outpaced upgrades of 2% locally.With some heavyweight market stocks trading ex-dividend yesterday and Wall St closed on Monday, investor moves were buoyed yesterday by strength among the banks and a rally among key commodity prices yesterday however this wasn't enough to boost the ASX to a green finish.Gold rose 1.4% to $3,496.24 per ounce, and silver surpassed $40 for the first time since 2011, driven by expectations the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, according to ANZ.Collin's Food (ASX:CKF) soared over 7% yesterday after posting a 6.7% rise in total sales for the first 18-weeks of FY26 and the KFC Australia operator also reaffirmed guidance for FY26 targeting underlying NPAT of low-mid teens.What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 1.33% higher at US$65.49/barrel, gold is up 1.5% at US$3528/ounce and iron ore is up 0.71% at US$102.53/tonne.The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 65.13 US cents, 96.70 Japanese Yen, 46.82 British Pence, and 1 New Zealand dollar and 11 cents.Ahead of the midweek trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down a sharp 0.42% tracking global market uncertainty overnight.Trading ideas:Bell Potter has maintained a buy rating on Harvey Norman (ASX:HVN) and have increased the 12-month price target on the homewares retailer from $6.00 to $8.30 following the release of FY25 results beating expectations and a strong start to FY26 especially from within the Australian business.And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Supply Network (ASX:SNL) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 268-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $36.02 to the range of $27.50 to $29.00 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed lower on Friday but higher for August marking the 4th month of gains for the NYSE. On Friday, the S&P500 fell 0.64%, the Nasdaq lost 1.15%, and the Dow Jones ended the day down 0.2% as investors took money out of the market amid risks of inflationary pressures remaining persistent into the new month following the U.S. core PCE increasing 2.9% for July which was in-line with expectations but still showed acceleration of an inflation driver.In Europe on Friday stocks moved lower as investors await key inflation data out in the region. The STOXX 600 fell 0.6%, Germany's DAX also dropped 0.6%, the French CAC declined 0.8% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.3%.Across the Asia region on Friday markets closed mixed as investors assessed key economic data out of Japan including Japan's CPI rising at a slower pace in August. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.26% on Friday while Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.45%, China's CSI index added 0.74%, and South Korea's Kospi index declined 0.32%.Locally on Friday the ASX200 closed 0.08% lower as a sell-off in REIT and financial stocks offset a more than 3% rise in tech stocks. For the month of August though, the local market posted a 2.6% rise as investors responded to strong outlook for FY26.Homewares retailer Harvey Norman (ASX:HVN) jumped over 10% on Friday after reporting profits rose 39% in FY25 which well exceeded market expectations while Austal (ASX:ASB) also soared over 14% amid a record order pipeline and shipbuilding agreement with the federal government.What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.91% lower at US$64.01/barrel, gold is up 0.91% at US$3448.50/ounce and iron ore is up 0.1% at US$101.81/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.48 US cents, 96.30 Japanese yen, 48.46 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 11 cents.Ahead of the first trading session of the new month the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.3%.Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Lovisa from $31 to $42 (ASX:LOV) and maintain a hold rating on the fashion jewellery retailer following the release of the company's FY25 results. Despite missing on NPAT, the new financial year has started very strong for Lovisa with global comparable sales up 5.6%.And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Ooh Media (ASX:OML) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 6-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $1.68 to the range of $1.84 to $1.88 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed higher on Tuesday as investors assessed Trump's latest moves and await key earnings results out of Nvidia. The S&P500 rose 0.41%, the Dow Jones gained 0.3% and the Nasdaq ended the day up 0.44%.In Europe overnight, markets closed lower as global investors assessed Trump's latest moves in attempt to intervene with the running of the US Federal Reserve. The STOXX 600 lost 0.83%, Germany's DAX fell 0.4%, the French CAC declined over 2% and, in the UK, the FTSE 100 ended the day down 0.7%.Across the Asia region on Tuesday, markets mostly fell as investors in the region also weighed Trump's latest moves both on the Fed and tariff fronts. Trump reportedly warned of ‘200% tariffs or something' on China if it does not export rare-earth magnets to the U.S. China's CSI index fell 0.4%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 1.18%, Japan's Nikkei declined 0.97% and South Korea's Kospi index ended the day down 0.95%.The Australian share market dropped 0.41% on Tuesday, following global weakness after Donald Trump threatened higher tariffs over digital services taxes and called for the removal of Fed governor Lisa Cook.We are at the tail end of reporting season now with a few key themes emerging as we head into FY26 including cost management being the key to margin maintenance, the foundations are set for a stronger FY26 through headwinds easing and dividends signalling stability heading into the new financial year.Yesterday, Coles Group (ASX:COL) reported a solid FY25 that beat expectations with strong outlook for FY26 which sent the share price of Australia's major supermarket giant up over 8.5%.Web Travel (ASX:WEB) tumbled over 7.5% on Tuesday after providing a trading update that signalled softer-than-expected results in the first half despite strong FX tailwinds experienced in the half.And mining giant Fortescue (ASX:FMG) tumbled over 2% after FY25 results reflected the weaker iron ore market during the last financial year including NPAT falling over 40% and the company slashed its dividend to the lowest level in 7-years.What to watch today: Gold is up 0.54% at US$3385/ounce and iron ore is down 0.07% at US$101.53/tonne.On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 2.32% lower at US$63.30/barrel, gold is up 0.54% at US$3385/ounce and iron ore is down 0.07% at US$101.53/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 64.96 US cents, 95.72 Japanese Yen, 48.45 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 11 cents.Ahead of the midweek trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.53%.Trading ideas:Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Propel Funeral Partners (ASX:PFP) from $5.50 to $5.90 and maintain a buy rating on the full-service funeral provider following the release of the company's FY25 results including revenue growth of 7.9% and average revenue per funeral rising 1.3%. The company has also had a very strong start to the new financial year which has driven the price target increase.And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Collins Food Group (ASX:CKF) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 46-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $9.76 to the range of $12.10 to $12.60 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed higher on Friday after Fed chair Jerome Powell signalled the U.S. central bank could be easing monetary policy as soon as next month, during his speech at the Jackson hole symposium for 2025. The Dow Jones rose to a record high at the closing bell on Friday with a gain of 1.9% while the Nasdaq and S&P500 gained 1.88% and 1.52% respectively on Friday. During Powell's speech he said “the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance” which investors welcomed on Friday. In Europe on Friday, markets closed higher as investors digested the U.S. EU trade deal and hold higher hopes of a rate cut out of the U.S. in September. The STOXX 600 rose 0.5%, Germany's DAX gained 0.3%, the French CAC climbed 0.4% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day at another record high, up 0.13%.Across the Asia region on Friday markets closed mostly higher led by China's CSI index rallying over 2%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.32%, Japan's Nikkei closed flat as inflation in the region cooled to 3.1% in July, and South Korea's KOSPI index ended the day up 0.86%.Locally to end last week the ASX200 posted a 0.57% loss as healthcare and staples stocks weighed on the key index.On the reporting season calendar on Friday, it was a mixed session as investors reacted sharply to key results. Zip Co (ASX:Z1P) soared almost 20% after posting FY25 results whereby cash EBITDA soared 147% to $170.3m, operating margin rose to 15.8%, TTV increased 30.3% to $13.1bn and total income climbed 23.5% on FY24 to $1.081bn. Net bad debts also fell from 1.7% of TTV in FY24 to 1.5% of TTV in FY25 and active customers rose 4.6% to 6.3 million. Zip also excited the market announcing it is considering dual listing on the Nasdaq to support the company's significant US growth.Accent Group (ASX:AX1) on the other hand dived over 15% on Friday after the footwear and clothing retail parent company reported sales growth of just 1.5% in FY25 to $1.5bn and net profit tumbled amid widespread promotional activity required to reduce inventory levels.And Mexican fast food outlet Guzman y Gomez (ASX:GYG) tanked over 23% to a record low after FY25 results came in well below market expectations and investors grew increasingly concerned about the company's FY26 outlook. What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.4% higher at US$63.77/barrel, gold is up 0.95% at US$3371/ounce and iron ore is down 0.15% at US$101.42/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 64.95 U.S. cents, 95.38 Japanese yen, 48 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 11 cents.Ahead of Monday's trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up a sharp 0.94% Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Monash IVF (ASX:MVF) from a buy to a hold and have reduced the 12-month price target on the company from $1.15 to 77cps following the release of the company's latest update including 2H25 revenue declining over 6% HoH and ARS down over 12%. Market stimulated cycles fell 0.7bp to 21% due to a reduction of cycles by over 5% which is significantly more than the only slight decline in industry growth.And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on PWR Holdings (ASX:PWH) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 44-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $$7.75 to the range of $5.80 to $6.30 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed Tuesday's session mixed as a tech decline weighed on key market indices. The S&P500 fell 0.6%, the Nasdaq lost 1.5% and the Dow Jones ended the day up just 0.02%. Investors have been pulling out of Nvidia in recent days with shares in the mega cap ending Tuesday's session down 3.5% as traders take a breath from the recent AI rally in favour of undervalued small to mid-cap stocks in the current market environment.In Europe overnight markets closed higher as investors welcomed peace talks progress initiated by President Trump with Ukraine leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian leader Vladimir Putin. The STOXX600 rose 0.7%, Germany's DAX added 0.45%, the French CAC gained 1.21% and, in the UK, the FTSE 100 ended the day up 0.34% to a fresh record high.Across the Asia region on Tuesday markets closed lower as investors await the outcome of Trump's talks with Russia and Ukraine. Japan' Nikkei fell 0.38% a day after closing at a record high, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed flat, China's CSI index lost 0.38% and South Korea's Kospi index ended the day down 0.81%.Locally yesterday the ASX200 fell 0.7% as market heavyweight CSL (ASX:CSL) tumbled almost 17% in its worst day ever after announcing weaker results than expected and reporting it will be cutting up to 3000 jobs.BHP (ASX:BHP) also had results out yesterday that were weak on China's subdued demand but shares still rose on optimistic outlook.Westpac consumer confidence data out yesterday shows Aussies are regaining confidence as we enter the rate cut part of the rate cycle. The reading for August showed a MoM increase to 5.7% in August from 0.6% in July, signalling the strongest level since 2022.What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 1.32% lower at US$62.58/barrel, gold is down 0.5% at US$3316/ounce and iron ore is down 0.05% at US$101.57/tonne.The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 64.59 US cents, 95.28 Japanese Yen, 46.45 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.Ahead of the midweek trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.2%.Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on CSL (ASX:CSL) from a buy to a hold and have significantly lowered the 12-month price target on the healthcare giant from $305 to $240 following the release of FY25 results, unveiling CSL's key division Behring disappointed with just 1% revenue growth, while Seqirus and Vifor exceeded expectations. Despite this, the market reacted sharply, and Bell Potter's analyst see a challenging near-term outlook due to earnings growth missing expectations, weak 2H25 Behring performance, delayed margin recovery (now expected by FY29), and uncertainty around FY27/28 forecasts for the demerged entity.And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on EBR Systems (ASX:EBR) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 22-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $1.28 to the range of $1.13 to $1.17 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

In the U.S. overnight the S&P and Nasdaq reset their respective record highs while the Dow Jones also closed higher as investors welcomed the latest CPI reading which came in tamer than expected. The S&P 500 rose 1.13%, the Nasdaq added 1.4% and the Dow Jones ended the day up 1.1%. The US CPI reading rose 2.7% on an annualised basis in July which fell short of economists' estimates of a 2.8% rise, while core CPI rose 3.1% which slightly beat expectations. The data indicates Trump's tariffs are having a lower impact than expected on inflation and supports the case for the Fed to consider a rate cut in the near future.In Europe overnight, markets closed mostly higher in the region after US inflation accelerated less than expected. The STOXX 600 rose 0.24% on Tuesday while the French CAC added 0.8% and the UK's FTSE100 climbed 0.22%, but Germany's DAX fell 0.13%.Across the Asia region on Tuesday, markets in the region closed mostly higher after a tariff truce was called between the US and China. Japan's Nikkei hit a record high, ending the day up 2.15%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.25% and China's CSI index ended the day up 0.52%.The local market started the new trading week higher with a 0.41% rise on Tuesday, following the RBA's 0.25% or 25-bps rate cut yesterday and on the back of key catalysts in the earnings and materials spaces over the last few sessions.The RBA's rate cut was expected and the board said ‘with underlying inflation continuing to decline back towards the midpoint of the 2–3 per cent range and labour market conditions easing slightly, as expected, the Board judged that a further easing of monetary policy was appropriate' but there was no discussion of a larger rate cut as Australia's central bank takes a more conservative approach to the rate journey amid extensive macro factors influencing our inflation journey.On the reporting season calendar yesterday we saw shares in geolocation tracking services and hardware company Life360 (ASX:360) soar 9% after the company released Q2 and H1 results that topped expectations including a 36% jump in both revenue and annualised monthly revenue.While at the other end of the market Seven Group (ASX:SGH) tumbled 9% following the release of FY25 results including revenue up just 1% while low to mid-single-digit EBIT growth is expected as guided to by management which will fall below that of the 8% delivered in FY25.What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 1.19% lower at US$63.20/barrel, gold is up 0.2% at US$3348/ounce and iron ore is up 0.73% at US$101.96/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.31 US cents, 96.47 Japanese Yen, 48.20 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 10 cents.Ahead of the midweek trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.16%.Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has decreased the 12-month price target on SGH (ASX:SGH) from $54 to $51 and maintain a hold rating on the diversified company following the release of the company's results as the analyst sees the company is facing short-term cyclical headwinds in construction markets, offsetting healthy operating conditions in mining markets.And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Auckland International Airport (ASX:AIA) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 7-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $6.94 to the range of $6.59-$6.65 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street rallied on Friday following a strong week of earnings results indicating company and economic resilience in the wake of President Trump's tariffs. The Nasdaq closed at a record high, ending the day up 0.98% to 21,450 points, while the S&P 500 added 0.78% and the Dow Jones ended the day up 0.47%. For the week the major averages each posted notable gains with the S&P 500 rising 2.4%, the Dow Jones climbing 1.4% and the Nasdaq posted a strong 3.9%. Apple shares boosted markets on Friday with a 13% surge after announcing plans to spend US$600bn over 4-years to appease President Trump's push to manufacture in the U.S.In Europe on Friday markets closed higher on Friday on reports the U.S. and Russia plan to end Russia's war with Ukraine. The STOXX 600 rose 0.3%, Germany's DAX and the UK's FTSE100 each closed flat, and the French CAC ended the day up 0.4%.Across the Asia region on Friday, markets closed mostly lower with Hong Kong's Hang Seng falling 0.89%, while China's CSI index lost 0.24%, and South Korea's Kospi index fell 0.55%, while Japan's Nikkei ended the day up 1.85%.Locally on Friday the ASX 200 posted a 0.27% loss as a sharp selloff in financials and healthcare stocks weighed on the key index. For the week though the key index managed to post a 1.7% gain ahead of the expected rate cut announcement out of the RBA this week. Block  (ASX:XYZ) soared 7.5% on Friday after posting increased spending activity on After-pay which lifted profit and growth over Q2, while Nick Scali (ASX:NCK) shares also soared 8.6% after its ANZ business saw a 7.3% rise in H2 sales despite a depleted consumer spend environment.What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.83% lower at US$63.35/barrel, gold is up 0.06% at US$3397/ounce and iron ore is up 0.01% at US$101.22/tonne.The Aussie dollar has slightly strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.25 US cents, 96.33 Japanese yen, 48.52 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.Ahead of Monday's trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the market will open the day up 0.06%.Trading ideas:Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Monadelphous Group (ASX:MND) from a hold to a sell following the release of the company's FY25 result preview including the anticipation of weaker 2H profitability, and current overvaluation of the stock trading on a 23.8x FY26 PE. MND trades at a 55% premium to Industrial Services peers and is forecast to deliver the lowest FY26 earnings growth in the peer group.And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Kelly Partners Group (ASX:KPG) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 20-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $10.34 to the range of $9.65 to $9.85 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

S&P futures are pointing to a higher open today, up +0.5%. Asian markets traded higher today with the Nikkei outperforming and Hang Seng setting a third consecutive day of gains. European markets are also firmer in early trades. In a CNBC interview, President Trump reiterated key trade positions, particularly targeting India and China. He criticized India's Russian energy purchases, BRICS participation, high tariffs, and resistance to market access, threatening to hike existing 25% tariffs with a decision expected shortly. India is reportedly considering responses, including easing dairy market access and supporting affected exporters. On China, Trump stated that a trade deal is very close, with a potential meeting with President Xi by year-end, contingent on progress.Companies Mentioned: Walt Disney, OpenAI, Boeing

S&P futures are pointing to a flat open today, up +0.1%. Asian markets traded broadly higher today, with the Nikkei and Hang Seng both up +0.6%. European equity markets are also firmer in early trades. Tensions between the U.S. and India have escalated after former President Trump threatened significant tariff hikes on India over its purchase of Russian oil. This follows a 25% tariff imposed by Trump last week. However, both nations remain engaged in dialogue, with talks scheduled for late August. India is reportedly considering increased purchases of U.S. gas, communication equipment, and gold but remains firm on protecting its agricultural and dairy sectors. Companies Mentioned: STAAR Surgical, Core Scientific

In the US today so far, Wall St closed lower as investors digested weak economic data against the latest tariff threats out of President Trump. ISM services index data flatlined for July adding to stagflation concerns in the US while stocks also came under pressure after Trump told CNBC that tariffs on chips and pharmaceuticals are coming soon. The S&P 500 ended the day down 0.5%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.65% and the Dow Jones ended the session down 0.14%.In Europe overnight, markets in the region closed mostly higher despite President Trump saying he will unveil new tariffs in the near future. The STOXX 600 rose 0.1%, Germany's DAX added 0.4%, the French CAC fell 0.1% and, in the UK, the FTSE 100 ended the day up 0.1%.Across the Asia region on Tuesday markets closed higher led by South Korea's Kospi index adding 1.6%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.92%, China's CSI index added 0.4% and Japan's Nikkei ended the day up 0.64%.The local market started the new trading week in the green with a 1.23% surge on Tuesday as all sectors ended the day in positive territory following strength on Wall St on Monday night. Discretionary and financials were the best performing sectors with gains of 1.81% and 1.49% respectively, while staples managed the lowest gain with 0.34%.Australian consumer confidence rose to 90.6 points, the highest since May 2022, following easing inflation data and expectations of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The ANZ-Roy Morgan index saw significant improvements in both current and future financial conditions, with a 0.25% rate reduction anticipated this month.Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX:TLX) plunged over 8% after it flagged higher operating expenses in the first half of the fiscal year to be around 36% of revenue for 1H25.Austal (ASX:ASB) added over 7.5% as it finalised its agreement with the federal government to become the country's leading defence shipbuilder. The company also impressed investors with a guidance update for FY25 with the new guidance expectation for EBIT of no less than $100m for the 12-months, higher than the previous guidance of no less than $80m.And Electro Optic Systems (ASX:EOS) rocketed 43% on Tuesday after announcing it has secured an order for a drone defence capability based on a new type of high-power laser, to the value of $125m (71.4million euros) from a European NATO Member State. The order is a world first export order for a 100-kilowatt class laser defence system.What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 1.66% lower at US$65.20/barrel, gold is up 0.16% at US$3379/ounce and iron ore is up 1.21% at US$100.77/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 64.72 US cents, 95.56 Japanese Yen, 48.62 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 10 cents.Ahead of the midweek trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the new trading day up 0.13.Trading ideas:Bell Potter has significantly increased the 12-month price target on Electro Optic Systems (ASX:EOS) from $3.75 to $5.00 and maintain a buy rating on the defence manufacturer after the company secured its latest order valued at 71.4m euro. The new laser counter-drone capability was developed by EOS to address the urgent market need and emerging strategic requirement to defend against drone swarm attacks at an economical cost.And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on AGL Energy (ASX:AGL) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 34-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $10.00 to the range of $10.45 to $10.55 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed lower across the major averages on Friday as investors assessed signals of a weakening economy against Trump's modified tariffs imposed from August 1. The Dow Jones lost 1.23% on Friday, the S&P 500 fell 1.6% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day down 2.24%.The all-important July jobs report came in weaker-than-expected with an expansion of just 73,000 in nonfarm payrolls for the month, well short of the 100,000 economists were expecting signalling economic weakness at a time Trump's latest tariffs were imposed.In Europe on Friday markets closed lower after Trump's latest slew of tariffs came into effect despite the UK and EU having already negotiated trade deals. The STOXX 600 fell 2.7% on Friday while Germany's DAX lost 2.66%, the French CAC ended the day down 2.91%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 closed Friday's session down 0.7%.Across the Asia region on Friday markets also closed lower after Trump modified his tariffs on the region. Japan's Nikkei lost 0.66%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.07%, China's CSI index declined 0.51% and South Korea's Kospi index ended the day down a sharp 3.88%.Locally on Friday the ASX200 posted a 0.9% loss to end a solid trading week as investor sentiment was dented by Trump's latest tariff moves on copper and key trade partners, and investors reassessed positions to start the new month ahead of key earnings results updates and as the market hovers around all-time highs.Star Entertainment Group (ASX:SGR) tanked over 13% on Friday after the embattled casino operator's sale of its Queen's Wharf precinct to its Hong-Kong based JV partner collapsed.Sleep apnoea treatment leader ResMed (ASX:RMD) rallied over 1% on Friday after posting another quarter of strong results including double digit revenue growth and higher-than-expected margin expansion in the latest quarter.What to watch today:The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 64.72 US cents, 95.29 Japanese yen, 48.70 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.Ahead of Monday's trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.4%.Trading ideas:Bell Potter has initiated coverage of Sigma Healthcare (ASX:SIG) with a sell rating and a 12-month price target of $2.00 as the analyst believes the company is a great business but is overpriced. 2H25 earnings are also expected to be weaker (relative to 1H25) as is the normal seasonal trend. We expect a convergence on consensus earnings for FY26 following FY25 reporting in August.And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Mader Group (ASX:MAD) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 29-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $7.15 to the range of $5.70 to $6.00 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Fed kept rates on hold with dissent from Waller and Bowman. Powell said will not let tariffs become inflationary.BoJ maintained rates as expected, raised growth and inflation outlook. Continued to note uncertainty over trade.US equity futures rebounded after-hours with strength in tech/AI-related names after Microsoft (+8.3%) and Meta (+11.5%) smashed Q2 earnings.US President Trump announced that South Korea will be subject to a 15% and make USD 350bln in investments in the US.European equity futures suggest a mildly positive open. Hang Seng lags post-disappointing Chinese PMIs.DXY rally pauses for breath, EUR/USD remains on a 1.14 handle. USTs rebounded off the lows after post-Powell pressure.Looking ahead, highlights include French CPI, PPI, German Unemployment Rate, CPI, EZ Unemployment Rate, Italian CPI, US Challenger Layoffs, PCE (Jun), Jobless Claims, Employment Wages, Chicago PMI, Atlanta Fed GDPNow, Canadian GDP, SARB Policy Announcement.Earnings from Shell, Unilever, LSE, Haleon, Standard Chartered, Anglo American, Sanofi, Schneider Electric, Safran, Credit Agricole, Saint Gobain, SocGen, Accor, Teleperformance, Air France, AB InBev, BBVA, Holcim Puma, Lufthansa, BMW, Apple, Amazon, Strategy, Coinbase, Reddit, Roku, CVS, Roblox, AbbVie, Norwegian Cruise Line, Cigna, Mastercard & PG&E.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

S&P futures are pointing to a flat open today, up +0.1%. Asian markets traded mixed on Wednesday. The Nikkei closed flat, while the Hang Seng fell (1.4%), weighed down by weakness in tech and property stocks. European markets are marginally higher in early trades. The U.S. and China concluded two days of trade talks in Stockholm without significant breakthroughs but described the discussions as constructive. Key issues included U.S. concerns over China's purchases of sanctioned Iranian and Russian crude, industrial overcapacity, and rare earths trade, while China raised concerns over fentanyl tariffs and export controls. No commitments were made on structural reforms or rebalancing China's economy. Companies Mentioned: Anthropic, Kraken, Intercontinental Exchange

Wall Street closed higher with the S&P500 posting its 5th straight record close as investors digested a strong start to earnings season in the US and trade developments in the form of a landmark trade agreement with Japan. The S&P500 rose 0.4% on Friday to post its 14th record close of the year, the Nasdaq added 0.24% and the Dow Jones ended the day up 0.47%. Both Alphabet and Verizon rallied last week on the back of better-than-expected earnings results with rallies of 4% and 5% respectively over the last trading week.In Europe on Friday markets closed mostly lower following Trump's remarks saying there is a '50-50' chance of a deal being done with the EU before his self-imposed August 1 deadline. The STOXX 600 fell 0.2%, Germany's DAX lost 0.3%, the French CAC added 0.2% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.2%.Across the APAC region on Friday markets closed mostly lower as investors assessed recent trade developments. Japan's Nikkei lost 0.88%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.09%, India's Nifty 50 declined 0.9% and South Korea's Kospi Index bucked the trend to close 0.18% higher.Locally on Friday the ASX200 posted a 0.5% loss on Friday as a sharp sell-off in materials, financials and healthcare stocks offset strength among energy and tech stocks. For the week, Australia's key index lost 1.03%.The banks extended their sell-off on Friday as investors continued profit taking from the sector that ran the hottest over the last financial year. CBA (ASX:CBA) fell over 5% over the last trading week while NAB (ASX:NAB)declined over 4%, Westpac (ASX:WBC) fell over 3% and ANZ (ASX:ANZ) lost 1%.Regal Partners (ASX:RPL) shares jumped over 9% on Friday after the specialist alternative investment manager reported a 7% rise in funds under management for the June quarter with net inflows at around $600m for the quarter. What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 1.45% lower at US$65.07/barrel, gold is down 0.93% at US$3336.98/ounce and iron ore is down 0.03% at US$98.55/tonne.The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 65.75 US cents, 97.09 Japanese Yen, 48.79 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.Ahead of Monday's trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down just 0.06%. Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC) from a buy to a hold and have reduced the 12-month price target on the coal miner from $7.10 to $6.90 following the release of Q4 results out of the company. FY25 guidance was met, Group production and sales met the upper half of the guidance range and unaudited unit costs, and capex were below guidance. The company increased debt though following the first payment for the BMA acquisition and Narrabri undertook an 8-week longwall maintenance period during FY25 which is expected to be overcome in FY26. The move to a hold rating is due to recent share price appreciation.And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Gentrack (ASX:GTK) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 67-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $9.72 to the range of $7.90 to $8.30 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed mostly higher on Tuesday with the S&P500 resetting its record high as the major average rose 0.06%, while the Dow Jones climbed 0.4%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.39%. Investors continued shifting focus from trade war developments to robust earnings results.In Europe overnight markets closed lower for a third day as investors digested earnings results from some of the largest companies in the region. The STOXX 600 fell 0.5%, Germany's DAX lost 1.2%, the French CAC declined 0.7% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day flat.Across the Asia region on Tuesday, markets closed mixed again with Japan's Nikkei falling 0.11%, while China's CSI index added 0.82%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.54% and South Korea's Kospi index ended the day down 1.27%. Shares in SoftBank group surged 6% after reports emerged that the Japanese investment firm is set to build a small data centre by the end of the year.Locally on Tuesday, the ASX 200 started the day with a strong rally before easing in afternoon trade to end the session up just 0.1% after the latest RBA meeting minutes were released outlining the cautious approach to rate cuts taken by the RBA as they want to see the quarterly inflation reading before making any moves, especially amid the volatility of tariffs.Ramelius Resources (ASX:RMS) soared almost 8% on Tuesday in its biggest one-day rise in 15-weeks on the rallying gold spot price and after the Supreme Court of WA approved the company's $2.4bn acquisition of Spartan Resources.Investors continued selling out of the big banks again yesterday amid stretched valuations. CBA (ASX:CBA) fell 3.1%, while NAB (ASX:NAB), Westpac (ASX:WBC) and ANZ (ASX:ANZ) lost 2.7%, 1.3% and 0.8% respectively. Most traded securities:The most traded investments by Bell Direct clients yesterday were led by BHP (ASX:BHP)Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX:VAS)CSL (ASX:CSL)What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.78% lower at US$65.44/barrel, gold is up 0.87% at US$3425/ounce, and iron ore is up 0.64% at US$97.84/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.57 U.S. cents, 96.13 Japanese yen, 48.29 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.Ahead of the midweek trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.45% tracking wall street's majority rally overnight.Trading ideas:Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Frontier Digital Ventures (ASX:FDV) to $0.63 from $0.54 and maintain a speculative buy rating on the online marketplace focused investment company. The analyst sees there are multiple potential catalysts for a potential share price re-rating including improving macro backdrop for emerging market investment, positive growth forecasts for FDV, and potential portfolio monetisation/price discovery events to unlock shareholder value.And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Perseus Mining (ASX:PRU) following the formation of a pattern over the period of 6-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $3.67 to the range of $3.89 to $3.95 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed with records across 2 of the 3 major averages on Monday as optimism around earnings overshadowed investor fears of the latest tariff developments. The S&P500 rose 0.14% to close over 6300 for the first time, the Nasdaq added 0.38% to also post a record close and the Dow jones ended the day down just 0.04%. This second quarter earnings season has started very strong in the U.S. with Verizon shares popping 4% yesterday following a Q2 earnings beat while Alphabet added over 2% ahead of its earnings out after the closing bell on Wednesday.In Europe overnight, markets closed mixed to start the new trading week amid tariff uncertainty. The STOXX 600 fell 0.1%, Germany's DAX closed flat, the French CAC fell 0.3% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.2%. Ryan Air shares rose 6% on Monday after the airline posted a 128% rise in Q1 profit which topped market expectations.Across the Asia region on Monday, markets closed mixed as China held its key 1 and 5 year loan prime rates steady despite the struggling economic recovery in the region. China's CSI index rose 0.67%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.57%, Japan's Nikkei fell 0.21% and South Korea's Kospi index ended the day up 0.71%. Locally to start the new trading week, investors were in profit taking mode after the key index reset its record high to end the last trading week, leading to a 1.02% decline at the closing bell on Monday. Stocks that have run hot over the last 12-months like the big banks and some gold stocks came under pressure yesterday. Energy and Materials stocks were the only sectors to finish the day in the green while financials stocks took the biggest hit to start the new week 2.26% lower.Block Inc (ASX:XYZ) soared over 11% yesterday on news the company is entering the S&P500 from this Wednesday after Chevron acquired Hess Corp which left room for Block to enter the major US index. AMP (ASX:AMP) also jumped 9.3% after the company released a strong Q2 update including superannuation positive net inflows for the first time since 2017.Most traded securities:The most traded investments by Bell Direct clients to start the new week were led by:DroneShield (ASX:DRO) BHP (ASX:BHP)Mesoblast (ASX:MSB)What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.56% lower at US$66.97/barrel, gold is up 1.4% at US$3397/ounce and iron ore is up 0.04% at US$97.22/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback overnight to buy 65.24 U.S. cents, 96.17 Japanese yen, 48.54 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.Ahead of Tuesday's trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.13% tracking the record closes on Wall Street overnight. Trading ideas:Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Perenti (ASX:PRN) from a buy to a hold and have maintained the 12-month price target on the materials company at $1.80 following the company's issue of an updated noting that FY25 free cash flow is likely to be $280m vs the previous guidance of greater than $150m. The downgrade to a hold is on the back of recent share price appreciation.And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 156 days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $6.42 to the range of $8.20 to $8.60 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed mixed on Friday following reports President Trump pushed for greater tariffs on the European region. The Dow jones fell 0.32% on Friday, the S&P500 lost just 0.01% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day up 0.05%. Reports suggest Trump is demanding a minimum tariff between 15-20% from the EU ahead of the August 1 tariff implementation date. Consumer sentiment in the U.S. also out on Friday though suggests confidence levels are up 1.8% in the latest reading, indicating tariff-induced inflation fears are easing. We have started receiving first half earnings results in the U.S. and Netflix shares fell 5% on Friday after the streaming giant reported its operating margin will be lower in the second half of this FY.Across the European region on Friday, markets closed mixed as investors digested the latest tariff threats on the region. Germany's DAX fell 0.33%, the French CAC rose 0.01% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.22%.The Asia region also ended Friday's session mixed with China's CSI index rising 0.6%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 1.33%, South Korea's Kospi index lost 0.13%, and Japan's Nikkei ended the day down 0.21%.The ASX200 posted a 2.1% gain for the week in its best week since May and ended the week with a fresh record high driven by market heavyweights like CSL (ASX:CSL) and BHP (ASX:BHP) jumping over 3% each. Mesoblast (ASX:MSB) rocketed over 34% on Friday after reporting strong early sales of Ryoncil in the first few months of its availability on market.Virgin Australia (ASX:VGN) also gained almost 2% after UBS initiated coverage of the airline with a buy rating.Most traded securities:The most traded investments by our clients on Friday were led by Wesfarmers (ASX:WES)BHP (ASX:BHP)ANZ (ASX:ANZ) What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.36% lower at US$67.30/barrel, gold is up 0.32% at US$3349/ounce and iron ore is up 0.04% at US$97.22/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.18 US cents, 96.43 Japanese yen, 48.52 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.Ahead of Monday's trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.56%.Trading ideas:Bell Potter has raised the 12-month price target on Mesoblast (ASX:MSB) from $3.40 to $3.50 and maintain a speculative buy rating on the pharmaceutical company following the release of the company's latest cashflow update including US$13.2m in gross sales from Ryoncil for the period of 28 March to 30 June 2025. The major catalysts include revenue expansion from Ryoncil and the unrecognised value of a likely Accelerated Approval for Revascor in late-stage heart failure in CY26.And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on CSL (ASX:CSL) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 53-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $257.38 to the range of $268 to $272 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed higher to start the new trading week in the green despite President Trump's latest tariff threats over the weekend. The S&P500 rose 0.14%, the Nasdaq added 0.27% and the Dow Jones ended the day up 0.2%. Investors will gauge the first hit of tariffs on the region's inflation this week when the latest U.S. inflation reading is out.In Europe overnight markets closed mostly lower despite the UK finishing at a record high. The STOXX 600 fell just 0.06%, Germany's DAX lost 0.39%, the French CAC fell 0.27%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.64% to a fresh record high.Across the Asia region on Monday, markets closed mixed as bitcoin hit a fresh record high while cautious investors assessed the latest Trump tariff threats. Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.26%, China's CSI index ended flat, Japan's Nikkei lost 0.2% and South Korea's Kospi index ended the day up by 0.83%.The latest slew of China's economic data is out this week and yesterday we had the first glimpse with coal imports falling to the lowest level in more than 2-years in June amid weak demand and higher domestic production. China's steel exports on the other hand leapt to a record in Q2 reaching 30.7 million tonnes, up 11% from last year. The surge defied expectations, driven by strong demand and despite trade restrictions across Asia and Europe. The first-half total also rose by 9%. China's trade balance for June showed exports jumped 5.8% which topped expectations and showed a 1% increase MoM while imports rose 1.1%, below expectations but above the -3.4% reported a month prior, leading to the trade surplus rising to $114bn which also topped expectations.Another round of tariffs, another spike in investor uncertainty sparking a flee to safe-haven investments across the broad market yesterday. The ASX200 posted a 0.11% loss to start the new trading week lower after see-sawing all-day. Energy and materials stocks closed with gains over 0.5% while industrials and discretionary stocks were the hardest hit to start the new trading week.Gold miners were all the rage for investors to start the new week amid heightened volatility brought on by renewed tariff uncertainty. Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) rose 1.72%, Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN) added 1.88% and Ramelius Resources (ASX:RMS) ended the day up 3.4%.Counter drone technology company DroneShield (ASX:DRO) soared another 15% yesterday after the company reported the expansion of its R&D capabilities including a $13m initial investment to lease and fit out a brand new 3000 sqm production facility in Alexandria. Most traded securities:The most traded investments by Bell Direct clients to start the new week were led by BHP (ASX:BHP)DroneShield (ASX:DR)Andean Silver (ASX:ASL)Betashares Global Defence ETF (ASX:ARMR) What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 2.28% lower at US$66.89/barrel, gold is down 0.4% at US$3343/ounce and iron ore is up 0.05% at US$96.76/tonne.The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 65.47 U.S. cents, 96.75 Japanese yen, 48.55 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 10 cents.Ahead of Tuesday's trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.64%.Trading ideas:Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN) from $6.50 to $9.20 and maintain a buy rating on the uranium producer ahead of some catalysts coming up including the outlook for a re-rate on the company over the coming quarters with predicted fresh ore processing outperforming the stockpile issues which plagued FY25.Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on PWR Holdings (ASX:PWH) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 15-days which is roughly t

S&P futures are pointing to a lower open today, down (0.6%). European equity markets also opened in the red, with the major indices roughly down by (0.5%). Asian markets traded mixed with Greater China markets outperforming. The Hang Seng surged +1.8%, boosted by gains in consumer-oriented and property stocks, while the Shanghai Composite hit a 3.5-year high. President Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian goods not covered by the USMCA, effective 1-Aug, increasing from the current 25%. Energy-related goods remain at a 10% tariff. Trump hinted at potential baseline tariffs of 15 to 20%, up from the current 10%, and suggested similar measures might target the EU soon. Companies Mentioned: Google, Boyd Gaming, Panasonic

S&P futures are pointing to a flat open today. Asian markets traded mixed today with Japan's Nikkei logging small gains, supported by resilience in manufacturing. The Hang Seng underperformed, as property and tech stocks lagged. European markets are trading higher, with the DAX and CAC leading gains. President Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper, set for late July or early August implementation, and proposed a 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals with a longer timeline. He ruled out extending the August 1 deadline, emphasizing his tough stance on trade while accusing BRICS nations of undermining the U.S. dollar and threatening an additional 10% tariff. Companies Mentioned: Apple, Starbucks, Merck, Verona Pharma, AES Corp

S&P futures are pointing to a slightly higher open today, up +0.1%. Asian markets had a mixed session on Thursday. The Hang Seng dropped (0.6%) amidst weakness in property stocks while Japan's Nikkei dipped as uncertainty around trade talks weighed on sentiment. European markets are broadly higher in early trades, with the STOXX 600 up +0.3% and the FTSE 100 leading at +0.5%. President Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on exports to the U.S. and 40% on transshipments, reduced from an earlier proposed 46%. The U.S. will face zero tariffs on exports to Vietnam, though specifics on product groups and transshipment provisions remain unclear. Companies Mentioned: Old Point Financial, Apollo Global Management, TripAdvisor

S&P futures are pointing to a higher open today, up +0.2%. Asian markets finished Wednesday trading mostly lower, with the Hang Seng slightly higher and Japan's Nikkei weighed down by renewed tariff concerns. European equities are broadly showing strength in early sessions with the French CAC leading gains. President Trump stated he is not considering extending the July 9 deadline for resuming higher tariffs and reiterated the possibility of imposing duty rates on several nations, including Japan. Trump criticized Japan's limited U.S. rice imports and imbalance in auto trade, suggesting future tariffs could range from 30% to 35%.Companies Mentioned: Paramount Global, Intel, Spectris

US equity futures are pointing slightly up. European markets are narrowly mixed, while Asia go broadly higher, with decent gains for Nikkei and Hang Seng. Kospi extended recent post-election outperformance. For treasuries, 10-year yields stay steady at 4.5% after backing up sharply in prior session. Dollar softer, oil down, gold softer, industrial metals mixed. Attention on trade developments with US and China resuming talks in London with export licenses a key topic of discussion. NEC Director Hassett confirmed US is seeking agreement on rare earths from London talks. For its part China has taken issue with US principally over tech export controls and Huawei crackdown, which were attributed in part for Beijing maintaining its rare earths export curbs. Unclear whether the latest talks will lead to resolution of divisions between US and China, leaving fate of tariffs unknown.Companies Mentioned: Qualcomm Inc, Alphawave IP Group, Quartzsea Acquisition Corp, Meta Platforms

S&P futures are pointing lower today, down (0.47%). European equity markets are firmer, following slightly weaker levels on Monday. Asian equity markets went mostly higher, with Hang Seng a notable outperformer. Overnight, US 2-year yield down 1 bps to 3.9% and 10-year down 3 bps to 4.4%. Dollar firmer, oil up, gold down, industrial metals lower. Renewed US-China trade tensions has spilled into public view with both sides accusing each other of reneging on Geneva deal. White House talking up prospects of a Trump-Xi call this week but no confirmation yet from China. Critical minerals remain source of tensions with China reportedly slow walking offer to relax rare earths curbs, a response to latest US tech curbs and revocation of Chinese student visas. Companies Mentioned: Snowflake, Merck, Crunchy Data, MoonLake Immunotherapeutics

S&P futures are pointing lower today, down (0.5%). European equity markets are weaker. Asian markets are lower, with Nikkei, Hang Seng and Taiwan underperforming, mainland China closed for public holiday. Overnight, treasury yields went up, with the two year up 2bps and the ten year up 5bps. The U.S. dollar weaker, oil up, gold gains, industrial metals higher. Trade tensions weighing on risk appetite. US-China relations fraying a month with two sides accusing the other of violating Geneva agreement. Main disagreements revolve around US frustration at China slow walking offer of relaxing rare earths curbs and China taking issue with US at new export restrictions. On geopolitical front, China rebuked US after Defense Secretary Hegseth warned of potentially imminent Taiwan invasion. Renewed tensions come as press sources noted efforts underway to set up a Trump-Xi call in bid to move forward talks.Companies Mentioned: Qualcomm, Alphawave IP Group, Sanofi, Blueprint Medicines, BASF

S&P futures are pointing lower, down (1.2%). European equity markets are lower, near worse levels. Asian equities are broadly weaker with Hang Seng leading China markets lower. Japan, Korea and Australia all in negative territory. Overnight, treasury yields were mixed, with 2-year down 1 bp and 10-year up 7 bps to 4.5%. Dollar is weaker across the board. Gold has been rebounding after posting worst week since mid twenty twenty one. Crude and copper tracking equity market declines. Bitcoin erased earlier gain. Moody's downgraded US credit rating late Friday, citing growth in government debt and projected widening of deficits if tax cuts are extended. Downgrade plays into market's longstanding deficit concerns driven by Trump policy agenda that have contributed to upward rise in long-term yields and term premium widening to highest since 2014Companies mentioned: NVIDIA, Assura, BT Group

S&P futures are pointing to a flat open, up 0.1%. European equity markets are mostly weaker, with the STOXX 600 down 0.2%. Asian equities had a mixed session, with the Hang Seng rebounding sharply, while Japan and Australia saw losses. The U.S. Commerce Department announced a revision of AI chip export rules, rescinding regulations that were set to take effect in May due to concerns over stifling innovation, regulatory burdens, and strained diplomatic ties. Companies Mentioned: Tesla, TXO Partners

S&P futures are pointing to a softer open, down (0.2%), as investors brace for a heavy slate of corporate earnings. European equities are firmer in early trades, extending recent rallies. Meanwhile, Asian equities were mixed, with Japan and Australia logging small gains, while the Hang Seng edged higher after paring early losses. The Shanghai Composite and South Korea's Kospi both finished lower. Companies Mentioned: Blackstone, JetBlue, United Airlines, Sunnova Energy

S&P futures are pointing to a higher open, up +0.2% as market sentiment is buoyed by optimism over potential relief on U.S. auto tariffs. Asian equities were mixed, with solid gains in Australia and South Korea, while Greater China markets and the Hang Seng edged lower. European equities are mostly higher, with the STOXX 600 up +0.2% and German DAX up +0.5%. Market focus has shifted to corporate earnings and significant economic data releases. S&P 500 Q1 earnings are expected to show solid growth, but forward guidance has been largely negative. Earnings and macro data remain centered on the impacts of tariffs.Companies Mentioned: Amazon, Ford, Flotek Industries

US equities are mostly higher with S&P and TSX futures pointing up. US 2-year yield stays at 3.8% and 10-year down 5 bps to 4.4%. Gold finished down 2.6%, bitcoin futures was up and WTI crude settled up 1.4%. European equity markets are firmer, follows broad strength in Asia, with decent gains for Nikkei and Hang Seng. Attention to the White House, President Trump said he never intended to fire Fed Chair Powell. He repeated his criticisms of Powell and said that he'd like him to be more active in terms of lowering interest rates, but that even if Powell doesn't, it would not result in his termination. Sell-side firms warned firing Powell risked inviting fresh market turbulence though there was also lingering scepticism that Trump would carry out threat to remove Powell given financial repercussions that would follow.Companies mentioned: Voyager Acquisition, VERAXA, Fonterra Co-operative Group, Intel

US equities are mostly lower with S&P futures pointing down 1.49%. US 2-year yield is steady at 3.8% and 10-year down 5 bps to 4.3%. Gold extends to new record high, bitcoin futures down and WTI crude settled slightly down. Both Asian and European equity markets are lower. Hang Seng underperformed and Taiwan was sharply down. China, Japan and South Korea were also weaker. European indices are pointing down around 1%. White House formally launched national security probes into pharmaceuticals and semis, paving the way for new sectoral tariffs. However, move had been widely telegraphed and market has seemingly been more focused on recent off-ramps. In addition, with US and Japan set to talk trade this week, some thoughts bar for early deals with key allies may be low. Companies mentioned: Datagroup, SPX Technologies, NVIDIA Corp, ASML Holdings

S&P futures and TSX are pointing slightly up. Asian equities inched higher in cautious trade with a 0.8% surge in Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai are slightly up with India leading the gainers as its banks and auto stocks rallied on tariff reprieve news. European equity markets are mostly higher, with major indices up near 1%. Overnight, US 10-year yield was steady at 4.4% with the 2-year up 1 bP to 3.9%. US dollar unchanged, AUD higher, NZD at four-month high, yen and yuan flat. Oil went up and gold firmer. Crude futures are slightly higher, precious metals are also resuming their upward trend, base metals are mixed. Cryptocurrencies are higher.Companies mentioned: Apple, Lowe's Companies, Ryanair Holdings, NVIDIA Corp

President Trump outlines tariff exemptions including smartphones, chips and other tech components but U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says the move is only temporary. The tech sector rallies in Asia with the Hang Seng leading gains. Chinese exports surge more than 12 per cent in March. President Xi Jinping slams the trade was with the U.S., saying that protectionism has ‘no way out'. The founder of Bridgewater Associates Ray Dalio tells NBC News tariffs and a falling dollar could signal a potentially serious economic downturn.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

S&P 500 was slightly up 0.04%. Asian equity markets were under pressure on Wednesday, with Japan and Taiwan performance particularly weak. Nikkei went down 3.93%, Hang Seng up 0.68%, Shanghai Composite +1.31%. European equity markets opened broadly lower, with STOXX 600 down 3 percent and FTSE 100 up 2.6%. Press declared US reciprocal tariffs came into effect with the clock moving past the 12:01 am ET deadline as stated by the White House. Most of the attention is on the highest tariff rate of 104% imposed on China. No further reaction came from Beijing so far though yesterday's backlash continued to reverberate. Full effects may take some time to filter through as goods already in transit as of midnight will be exempt as long as they arrive in the US by May 27th. Companies Mentioned: Apple, KKR, Assura, META

This week we talk about taxes, reciprocity, and recession.We also discuss falling indices, stagflation, and theories of operation.Recommended Book: The Serviceberry by Robin Wall KimmererTranscriptStagflation, which is a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation, is exactly what it sounds like: a combination of those two elements, usually with high levels of unemployment, as well, that can cause a prolonged period of economic sluggishness and strain that slows growth and can even lead to a recession.The term was coined in the UK in the 1960s to describe issues they were facing at the time, but it was globally popularized by the oil shocks of the 1970s, which sparked a period of high prices and slow growth in many countries, including in the US, where inflation boomed, productivity floundered, and economic growth plateaud, leading to a stock market crash in 1973 and 1974.Inflation, unto itself, can be troubling, as it means prices are going up faster than incomes, so the money people earn and have saved is worth less and less each day. That leads to a bunch of negative knock-on effects, which is a big part of why the US Fed has kept interest rates so high, aiming to trim inflation rates back to their preferred level of about 2% as quickly as possible in the wake of inflation surges following the height of the Covid pandemic.Stagnant economic growth is also troubling, as it means lowered GDP, reduced future outlook for an economy, and that also tends to mean less investment in said economy, reduced employment levels—and likely even lower employment levels in the future—and an overall sense of malaise that can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, no one feeling particularly upbeat about where their country is going; and that's not great economically, but it can also lead to all sorts of social issues, as people with nothing to look forward to but worse and worse outcomes are more likely to commit crimes or stoke revolutions than their upbeat, optimistic, comfortable kin.The combination of these two elements is more dastardly than just the sum of their two values implies, though, as measures that government agencies might take to curb inflation, like raising interest rates and overall tightening monetary policy, reduces business investment which can lead to unemployment. On the flip-side, though, things a government might do to reduce unemployment, like injecting more money into the economy, tends to spike inflation.It's a lose-lose situation, basically, and that's why government agencies tasked with keeping things moving along steadily go far out of their way to avoid stagflation; it's not easily addressed, and it only really goes away with time, and sometimes a very long time.There are two primary variables that have historically led to stagflation: supply shocks and government policies that reduce output and increase the money supply too rapidly.The stagflation many countries experienced in the 1970s was the result of Middle Eastern oil producing nations cutting off the flow of oil to countries that supported Israel during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, though a sharp increase in money supply and the end of the Bretton Woods money management system, which caused exchange rate issues between global currencies, also contributed, and perhaps even more so than the oil shock.What I'd like to talk about today is another major variable, the implementation of a huge package of new tariffs on pretty much everyone by the US, that many economists are saying could lead to a new period of stagflation, alongside other, more immediate consequences.—A tariff is a type of tax that's imposed on imported goods, usually targeting specific types of goods, or goods from a particular place.Way back in the day these were an important means of funding governments: the US government actually made most of its revenue, about 90% of it, from tariffs before 1863, because there just wasn't a whole of lot other ways for the young country to make money at the time.Following the War of 1812, the US government attempted to double tariffs, but that depleted international trade, which led to less income, not more—gross imports dropped by 71%, and the government scrambled to implement direct and excise taxes, the former of which is the tax a person or business pays that isn't based on transactions, while the latter is a duty that's paid upon the manufacture of something, as opposed to when it's sold.Tariffs resurfaced in the following decades, but accounted for less and less of the government's income as the country's manufacturing base increased, and excise and income taxes made up 63% of the US's federal revenue by 1865.Tax sources have changes a lot over the years, and they vary somewhat from country to country.But the dominant move in the 20th century, especially post-WWII, has been toward free trade, which usually means no or low tariffs on goods being made in one place and sold in another, in part because this tends to lead to more wealth for everyone, on average, at least.This refocus toward globalized free trade resulted in a lot of positives, like being able to specialize and make things where they're cheap and sell them where they're precious, but also some negatives, like the offshoring of jobs—though even those negatives, which sucked for the people who lost their jobs, have been positive for some, as the companies who offshored the jobs did so because it saved them money, the folks who were hired were generally paid more than was possible in their region, previously, and the people consuming the resulting goods were able to get them cheaper than would otherwise be feasible.It's been a mixed bag, then, but the general consensus among economists is that open trade is good because it incentivizes competition and productivity. Governments are less likely to implement protectionist policies to preserve badly performing local business entities from better performing foreign versions of the same, and that means less wasted effort and resources, more options for everyone, and more efficient overall economic operation, which contributes to global flourishing. And not for nothing, nations that trade with each other tend to be less likely to go to war with each other.Now that's a massively simplified version of the argument, but again, that's been the outline for how things are meant to work, and aside from some obvious exceptions—like China's protection of its local tech sector from foreign competition, and the US's protection of its aviation and car industries—it's generally worked as intended, and the world has become massively wealthier during this period compared to before this state of affairs was broadly implemented, post-WWII; there's simply no comparison, the difference is stark.There are renewed concerns about stagflation in the United States, however, because of a big announcement made by US President Trump on April 2, 2025, that slapped substantial and at times simply massive new tariffs on just about everyone, including the country's longest-term allies and most valuable trading partners.On what the president called “Liberation Day,” he announced two new types of tariff: one is a universal 10% import duty on all goods brought into the US, and another that he called a reciprocal tariff on imports from scores of countries, including 15 that will be hit especially hard—a list that includes China, EU nations, Canada, and Japan, among others.The theory of these so-called reciprocal tariffs is that Trump thinks the US is being taken advantage of, as, to use one example that he cited, the US charges a 2.5% tariff on imported cars, while the EU charges a 10% tariff on American cars imported to their union.The primary criticism of this approach, which has been cited by most economists and entities like the World Trade Organization, is that the numbers the US administration apparently used to make this list don't really add up, and seem to include some made-up measures of trade deficits, which some analysts suspect were calculated by AI tools like ChatGPT, as the same incorrect measures are spat out by commonly use chatbots like ChatGPT when they're asked about how to balance these sorts of things. But the important takeaway, however they arrived at these numbers, is that the comparisons used aren't really sensical when you look at the details.Some countries simply can't afford American exports, for instance, while others have no use for them. The idea that a country that can't afford American goods should have astoundingly large tariffs applied to their exports to the US is questionable from the get-go, but it also means the goods they produce, which might be valuable and important for Americans, be they raw materials like food or manufactured goods like car parts, will become more expensive for Americans, either because those Americans have to pay a higher price necessitated by the tax, or because the lower-price supplier is forced out of the market and replaced by a higher-price alternative.In short, the implied balance of these tariffs don't line up with reality, according to essentially everyone except folks working within Trump's administration, and the question then is what the actual motivation behind them might be.The Occam's Razor answer is that Trump and/or people in his administration simply don't understand tariffs and global economics well enough to understand that their theory on the matter is wrong. And many foreign leaders have said these tariffs are not in any way reciprocal, and that the calculation used to draw them up was, in the words of Germany's economic minister, “nonsense.” That's the general consensus of learned people, and the only folks who seem to be saying otherwise are the one's responsible for drawing these tariffs up, and defending them in the press.Things have been pretty stellar for most of the global economy since free trade became the go-to setup for imports and exports, but this administration is acting as if the opposite is true. That might be a feigned misunderstanding, or it might be genuine; they might truly not understand the difference between how things have been post-WWII and how they were back in the 1800s when tariffs were the go-to method of earning government revenue.But in either case, Trump is promising that rewiring the global order, the nature of default international trade in this way, will be good for Americans because rather than serving as a linchpin for that global setup, keeping things orderly by serving as the biggest market in the world, the American economy will be a behemoth that gets what it's owed, even if at the expense of others—a winner among losers who keep playing because they can't afford not to, rather than a possibly slightly less winning winner amongst other winners.This theory seems to have stemmed from a 1980s understanding of things, which is a cultural and economic milieu from which a lot of Trump's views and ideas seem to have originated, despite in many cases having long since been disproved or shown to be incomplete. But it's also a premise that may be more appealing to very wealthy people, because a lot of the negative consequences from these tariffs will be experienced by people in lower economic classes and people from poorer nations, where the price hikes will be excruciating, and folks in the middle class, whose wealth is primarily kept in stocks. Folks in the higher economic echolons, including those making most of these decisions, tend to make and build their wealth via other means, which won't be entirely unimpacted, but will certainly be less hurt by these moves than everyone else.It's also possible, and this seems more likely to me, but it's of course impossible to know the truth of the matter right now, that Trump is implementing a huge version of his go-to negotiating tactic of basically hurting the folks on the other end of a negotiation in order to establish leverage over them, and then starting that negotiation by asking what they'll do for him if he limits or stops the pain.The US is expected to suffer greatly from these tariffs, but other countries, especially those that rely heavily on the US market as their consumer base, and in some cases for a huge chunk of their economy, their total GDP, will suffer even more.There's a good chance many countries, in public or behind closed doors, will look at the numbers and decide that it makes more sense to give Trump and his administration something big, up front, in exchange for a lessening of these tariffs. That's what seems to be happening with Vietnam, already, and Israel, and there's a good chance other nations have already put out feelers to see what he might want in exchange for some preferential treatment in this regard—early reports suggest at least 50 governments have done exactly that since the announcement, though those reports are coming from within the White House, so it's probably prudent to take them with a grain of salt, at this point. That said, this sort of messaging from the White House suggests that the administration might be hoping for a bunch of US-favoring deals and will therefore make a lot of noise about initial negotiations to signal that that's what they want, and that the pain can go away if everyone just kowtows a little and gestures at some new trade policies that favor the US and make Trump look like a master negotiator who's bringing the world to heel.There's been pushback against this potentiality, however, led by China, which has led with its own, very large counter-tariffs rather than negotiating, and the EU looks like it might do the same. If enough governments do this, it could call Trump's bluff while also making these other entities, perhaps especially China, which was first out the door with counter-tariffs and statements about not be cowed by the US's bluster, seem like the natural successors to the US in terms of global economic leadership. It could result in the US giving away all that soft power, basically, and that in turn could realign global trade relationships and ultimately other sorts of relationships, too, in China's favor.One other commonly cited possibility, and this is maybe the grimmest of the three, but it's not impossible, is that Trump and other people in his administration recognize that the world is changing, that China is ascendent and the US is by some metrics not competing in the way it needs to in order to keep up and retain its dominance, and that's true in terms of things like manufacturing and research, but also the potential implications of AI, changing battlefield tactics, and so on. And from that perspective, it maybe makes sense to just shake the game board, knocking over all the pieces rather than trying to win by adhering to what have become common conventions and normal rules of play.If everyone takes a hit, if there's a global recession or depression and everything is knocked asunder because those variables that led to where we are today, with all their associated pros and cons, are suddenly gone, that might lead to a situation in which the US is hurt, but not as badly as everyone else, including entities like China. And because the US did the game board shaking, the US may thus be in a better position as everything settles back into a new state of affairs; a new state of affairs that Trump and his people want to be more favorable to the US, long-term.There's some logic to this thinking, even if it's a very grim, me-first, zero-sum kind of logic. The US economy is less reliant on global trade than the rest of the G20, the wealthiest countries in the world; only about 25% of its GDP is derived from trade, while that number is 37% for China, 63% for France, and a whopping 88% for Germany.Other nations are in a relatively more vulnerable position than the US in a less-open, more tariff-heavy world, then, and that means the US administration may have them over a barrel, making the aforementioned US-favoring negotiations more likely, but also, again, potentially just hurting everyone, but the US less so. And when I say hurting, I mean some countries losing a huge chunk of their economy overnight, triggering a lot more poverty, maybe stagflation and famines, and possibly even revolutions, as people worldwide experience a shocking and sudden decrease in both wealth and future economic outlook.Already, just days after Trump announced his tariffs, global markets are crashing, with US markets on track to record its second-worst three-day decline in history, after only the crash of 1987—so that's worse than even the crashes that followed 9/11, the Covid-19 pandemic, the debt crisis, and many others.Foreign markets are doing even worse, though, with Hong Kong's recently high-flying Hang Seng falling 13% in trading early this week, and Japan's Nikkei dropping 8%.Other market markers are also dropping, the price of oil falling to a pandemic-era level of $60 per barrel, Bitcoin losing 10% in a day, and even the US dollar, which theoretically should rise in a tariff scenario, dropping 0.1%—which suggests investors are planning for a damaging recession, and the US market and currency as a whole might be toxic for a while; which could, in turn, lead to a boom for the rest of the world, the US missing out on that boom.There are also simpler theories, I should mention, that tariffs may be meant to generate more profits to help pay for Trump's expanded tax cuts without requiring he touch the third-rails of Medicare or Social Security, or that they're meant to address the US's booming debt by causing investors to flee to Treasury bills, which has the knock-on effect of reducing the interest rates that have to be paid on government debt.That flight toward Treasuries is already happening, though it seems to be primarily because investors are fleeing the market as stocks collapse in value and everyone's worrying about their future, about stagflation, and about mass layoffs and unemployment.It may be that all or most of these things are true, too, by the way, and that this jumble of events, pros and cons alike, are seen as a net-positive by this administration.For what it's worth, too, the US Presidency doesn't typically get to set things like tariffs—that's congress' responsibility and right. But because Congress is currently controlled by Republicans, they've yet to push back on these tariffs with a veto, and they may not. There are rumblings within the president's party about this, and a lot of statements about how it'll ultimately be good, but that maybe they would have done things differently, but there hasn't been any real action yet, just hedging. And that could remain the case, but if things get bad enough, they could be forced by their constituents to take concrete action on the matter before Trump's promised, theoretical positive outcomes have the chance to emerge, or not.Show Noteshttps://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20060925_RL33665_4a8c6781ce519caa3e6b82f95c269f73021c5fdf.pdfhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariffhttps://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/03/31/tariffs-affect-consumer-spending/https://www.wsj.com/tech/exempt-or-not-the-chip-industry-wont-escape-tariffs-a6c771dbhttps://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/goldman-sachs-lifts-u-s-recession-probability-to-35-ce285ebchttps://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-am-9d85eb00-1184-11f0-8b11-0da1ebc288e3.htmlhttps://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-democrats-economy-protests-financial-markets-90afa4079acbde1deb223adf070c1e98https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trade-war-explodes-across-world-at-pace-not-seen-in-decades-0b6d6513https://www.mufgamericas.com/sites/default/files/document/2025-04/The-Long-Shadow-of-William-McKinley.pdfhttps://x.com/krishnanrohit/status/1907587352157106292https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/04/business/trump-stocks-tariffs-trade.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/05/opinion/trump-tariffs-theories.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/world/asia/vietnam-trump-tariff-delay.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/world/europe/trade-trump-tariffs-brexit.htmlhttps://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/04/why-do-domestic-prices-rise-with-tarriffs.htmlhttps://www.foxnews.com/politics/how-we-got-liberation-day-look-trumps-past-comments-tariffshttps://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/trumps-tariff-strategy-can-be-traced-back-to-the-1980s/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/12/us/politics/trump-tv-stock-market.htmlhttps://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdfhttps://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/over-50-countries-push-for-tariff-revisions-will-donald-trump-compromise-heres-what-the-white-house-said/articleshow/120043664.cmshttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/business/stock-market-plunge-investment-bank-impact.htmlhttps://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-trump-tariffs-trade-war-04-07-25https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-trump-tariff-foreign-policy-6934e493https://www.wsj.com/economy/in-matter-of-days-outlook-shifts-from-solid-growth-to-recession-risk-027eb2b4https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Asia-Pacific-stocks-sink-from-Trump-s-tariff-barrage-Hong-Kong-down-13https://www.reuters.com/markets/eu-seeks-unity-first-strike-back-trump-tariffs-2025-04-06/https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/04/07/trump-presidency-news-tariffs/https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/07/world/asia/china-trade-war-tariffs.htmlhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-04-07/global-rout-carries-whiff-of-panic-as-trump-holds-fast-on-tariffshttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflationhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/economists-fed-recent-projections-signal-120900777.htmlhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisishttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_stagnation This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit letsknowthings.substack.com/subscribe

US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said there is no postponing tariffs and April 9th tariffs are coming; tariffs are going to stay in place for days and weeks.US NEC Director Hassett said more than 50 countries have reached out to the White House to begin trade negotiations.Fed Chair Powell said on Friday that it feels like the Fed does not need to be in a hurry and has time; it is not clear what the path of monetary policy should be.APAC stocks resumed last week's heavy selling, US equity futures (ES -3.5%, NQ -4.3%, RTY -3.7%) have slumped, Europe set to open lower (Eurostoxx 50 future -4.1%).DXY remains on the backfoot, EUR/USD hit resistance at the 1.10 mark, Cable sits around the 1.29 level, CHF and JPY outperform.US yields are lower once again and in bull-steepening mode, crude prices continue to feel the squeeze.Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Output, EZ Sentix Index, Retail Sales, US Employment Trends, ECB's Cipollone.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Asian indexes fell sharply on Monday in the wake of US President Donald Trump's tariffs, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index marking its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Meanwhile, European trade ministers meet in Luxembourg to formulate a response – hoping for a negotiated solution but preparing to retaliate.

Peter Boockvar explains why investors must discard the playbook that has worked for the past few years due to three major shifts: the end of the MAG7 tech trade, potential cuts in government spending, and declining foreign flows into US assets. Boockvar notes that these seven stocks reached 35% of the S&P 500 - exceeding the concentration seen in March 2000 - while becoming a global "reserve currency" with central banks like Norway's Norges Bank and the Swiss National Bank owning billions in shares. He identifies emerging opportunities in international markets, with the German DAX up 17% and Hang Seng up 20% year-to-date, while warning that reduced government spending combined with weakening tech investment creates recession risk. Boockvar believes the Fed has diminished power in a new 3-4% inflation environment, pointing to record copper prices as evidence while noting that US defense manufacturers and technology companies face growing international competition.This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: Substack/The Boock Report: https://boockreport.com/Twitter/X: https://x.com/pboockvarBleakley Financial Group: https://www.bleakley.com/Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction and welcome Peter Boockvar0:55 Big picture market changes post-COVID3:22 End of AI tech trade dominance5:50 Foreign central bank investment in US stocks7:47 Market pivot to international opportunities10:12 Fed and Treasury coordination on bond yields12:34 Market bounce and valuation concerns14:28 New inflationary environment limiting Fed options16:53 Record copper prices amid inflation volatility18:02 Geopolitical shifts in commodity holdings20:17 Investment opportunities in China tech22:42 Portfolio management in changing market leadership25:12 Foreign flows into US stocks and dollar implications28:21 Recession risk assessment30:33 Closing thoughts on investment approach changes32:57 Final remarks and sign-off

This week we talk about tariffs, consumer confidence, and trade wars.We also discuss inflation, GDP, and uncertainty.Recommended Book: A Brief History of Intelligence by Max S. BennettTranscriptOn January 20, 2025, mere hours after being sworn into his second term in office as President of the United States, Donald Trump announced new 25% tariffs on most incoming goods from Canada and Mexico, accusing the two allies of failing to halt the flow of drugs and illegal migrants into the US. These tariffs would go into effect on February 1, he said, and they would be in addition to existing tariffs that were already in effect for specific import categories.On that same day, he also speculated that he might impose a universal tariff on all imports, saying that he believed all countries, allies or not, were taking advantage of the US, and he didn't like that.Less than a week later, Trump announced that he would impose 25% tariffs on all good from Colombia, with immediate effect, and would double that tariff to 50% within a week. This appears to have been a punishment for the Colombian government's decision to turn back planes full of immigrants the US government deported and sent their way, without approval from the intended recipient of those deported people, the Colombian government. There was a minor tiff between these governments, but the White House declared victory on the matter later that night, saying the tariffs would be held in reserve, implying they could come back at any time if their demands are not met.An executive order implementing the threatened 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico was signed on February 1, and a new 10% tariff on China went into effect the same day. Countermeasures were threatened by everyone involved, and after Trump published a social media post saying there would probably be economic pain for a while, his government agreed to a 30 day pause on tariffs for Mexico and Canada, while also threatening new tariffs against the European Union; another long-time US ally.The new 10% tariff on Chinese imports went into effect on February 4, and China retaliated with its own counter-tariffs on US goods, including things like farm machinery and energy products. It also implemented new restrictions on the export of rare earth minerals to the US—a category of raw materials everyone is scrambling to secure, as they're vital for the production of batteries and other fundamental technologies—and they launched a new antimonopoly investigation into Google, which deals with some Chinese companies.On February 10, Trump reimposed a 25% tariff on all foreign steel and aluminum; a move that made US metal companies happy, but essentially all other US companies very unhappy, and in mid-February he threatened even more, broad, and vague tariffs on basically everyone, saying he's doing what he's doing in order to force companies to move manufacturing infrastructure back to the US, after decades of offshoring everything.At the end of February, Trump said the delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico would go into effect, as planned, on March 4, alongside those new 10% tariffs on China. On that day, Canada implemented its own counter-tariffs on the US to the tune of 25% on about $155 billion of US goods imported by the country.Canada and Mexico send about 80% of their exports to the US market, so their economies are expected to be hit hard by this trade war. China, in contrast, only sends about 15% of its exports to the US, so the impact will be more tempered.These three countries, though, are the US's largest trading partners, collectively accounting for over 40% of US imports and exports. In addition to buying a lot of US goods, they also export the majority of things like oil, beer, copper wire, chocolate, and other goods that the US consumes; and the cost of tariffs are almost always passed on to the end-consumer, so higher tariffs on these sorts of goods mean raised prices on a lot of stuff across the economy.On March 6, after a lot of back-and-forth with US automakers and with the Mexican and Canadian governments, a lot of the tariffs placed on goods from these countries were suspended, the US government denying that their withdrawal had anything to do with the US market, which was suffering in response to this wave of economic disruptions—though many tariffs were kept in place, and Trump said the US would still impose tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports beginning on March 12.On the 12th, the EU and Canada announced a new wave of retaliatory tariffs against the US, though the European side said they would hold off on their implementation of these tariffs, waiting till April 1 to see what happens. The next day, Trump threatened a 200% charge on alcoholic products from the EU in response to their planned 50% tariffs on US whiskey and other products within their borders.At the moment, as of mid-March 2025, a lot of these tariffs are still speculative, as it's generally understood, from Trump's bombastic approach to deal-making and his previous backtracking from these sorts of threats, that many of these tariffs could disappear, announced solely to provide leverage against those Trump wants to squeeze for more concessions and what he considers to be more favorable trade terms. Some of them could become concrete reality, though, and part of the issue here is that it's nearly impossible to know which is which, because there also seems to be a larger effort to rewire the US and global economies by this administration—and that effort, plus the uncertainty caused by tariffs and similar actions, are leading to some pretty severe market upsets within the US, and resultantly around the world, as well.And that's what I'd like to talk about today: the impacts of these tariffs and other actions by this administration, so far, and what might happen next, based on currently available numbers and analysis.—Economies are ridiculously complex systems, and it's impossible to say with 100% certainty what caused what, and to what degree things would be different had some other path been taken by those in control of various regulatory and economic levers.That said, the nonpartisan Tax Foundation has estimated that just those first batch of proposed tariffs by the US government, not including impacts from foreign retaliations, which could be substantial, will reduce US GDP by about 0.4% and reduce total hours worked by the equivalent of 309,000 full-time jobs; so a lot less output, and a lot less overall productivity.That's on top of the estimated 0.2% long-term decrease in US GDP caused by the first Trump administration's tariffs, which were maintained by the subsequent Biden administration.These existing tariffs raised prices in the US and reduced both output and employment, which means the boom the US economy saw under the Biden administration might have been even boomier, had those tariffs been dropped. But now they're more or less locked in, and these new tariffs will probably amplify their effect, near-term and long-term.On top of that, the constant threats and pullbacks and seemingly off-the-cuff decisions to implement what amounts to all sorts of huge-scale taxes on a frenetic array of goods, including luxuries, but also some very fundamental things, like the metals we use to build and manufacture basically everything, is stoking uncertainty throughout the US and global economies.That uncertainty has wide-ranging impacts, but one of the most direct consequences is that consumer sentiment in the US has nose-dived, as ordinary people worry about the combined impacts of tariffs, cuts to government programs, layoffs across government agencies, and new restrictions on immigration, which even ignoring the human element of such things can cause all sorts of issues across industries that rely on immigrant workers to stay afloat.In mid-March of this year, US consumer sentiment hit 57.9, down from 64.7 in February. That's the lowest its been since November of 2022, it's down 27% from a year earlier, and it's a lot lower than economist predictions for this month, which were set at 63.2.Consumer sentiment tells us how people are feeling about the economy, about their potential to earn, and about where things are going. This influences how people spend, how they consume, and that in turn helps determine how the overall economy will go in the coming years, as people will be more likely to hunker down and save, taking as few risks as possible and making fewer purchases if they believe things will be rough; which in some cases can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, because those behaviors tend to shrink the economy, which leads to less output, fewer investments being made, more layoffs, and so on. That means a drop in consumer sentiment can make things bad even if they would otherwise be good, but if they're bad already, they can become even worse because folks stop doing things that would improve the economy, out of self-preservation.And that impact can be just as pronounced when things are weird and wobbly, rather than outright bad, as seems to be the case in the US at the moment.There's no firm evidence that the US economy is destined for a recession at this point, but the Russell 2000 index, which is made up of smaller companies than indexes like the S&P 500, and which is thus more prone to on-the-ground variables than its larger index kin, has dropped more than 16% since November, when it hit a new high on optimism about what the new Trump administration might do for businesses and the economy.The S&P 500 also collapsed, though about half as much, and it rallied somewhat last week as investors bought the dip, scooping up stocks at lower prices following that drop. But there's a lot of speculation that this might be a so-called dead cat bounce recovery—a moment in which a market seems to be recovering from a drop, but where it's actually just bouncing up a little before heading back downward—and even this index, which is packed with corporations that are less susceptible to brief market wobbles than those in the Russell, might be heading for another downswing in the coming weeks, based on a lot of the economic numbers used to predict such things, at the moment.One such metric is interest in alternative assets like gold, and the price of gold hit a new high last Friday, surpassing $3,000 per ounce for the first time ever.That's not something you tend to see when markets are healthy and people expect them to do well; if they are healthy and expected to surge rather than collapse, people tend to put their money in the market, not in shiny metals. But the shiny metals bet seems to be appealing right now, which hints at an even broader suspicion of the US economy than even that consumer sentiment and those bad market figures anticipate.And the market figures have been bad. In just 3 weeks, beginning on February 19, the S&P alone lost more than $5 trillion in value.The Atlanta Fed, which uses a fairly reliable model to predict future US GDP numbers, was predicting a healthy nearly 4% increase for the US's GDP for the first quarter of 2025 back in late-January, early-February, but that prediction plummeted from positive 4% to negative 2.4% by early March.That figure could still change, as it's informed by data that don't all arrive at the same time, but it's still a staggering drop, and it reflects the impact of all these tariffs, but also all the destruction of government programs and agencies, the mass firings, and of course the uncertainty caused by all of these things in aggregate, alongside the impacts of said uncertainty on everyone at all scales, from trade partners to US-based small businesses to individual consumers.So few people and institutions are happy about what's happening right now, but it does look like, in the immediate future, at least, there are some beneficiaries of all this tumult.Markets in China are flourishing, especially Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, which is up more than 20% since Trump's inauguration on January 20. And Europe's market, which has struggled with stasis for years now, is up more than 4% over that same period.Uncertainty about markets, but also military alliances, especially NATO, have pushed Germany—which has struggled since Russia invaded Ukraine, when their energy markets were utterly scrambled, which in turn hobbled their massive manufacturing base—Germany has unleashed a huge amount of government funds on their economy, and that big uptick in spending has helped basically the whole EU market grow. The German government has traditionally been tight-pocketed, but a declaration by the incoming Chancellor that they would do whatever it takes to both defend themselves and boost their economic outlook in the face of unreliable backing from their long-time ally, the US, has bolstered enthusiasm and optimism throughout the region, bringing EU nations closer together, increasing spending on all sorts of fundamentals, and bringing them closer to the Canadian government, as well.The Chinese government has recently indicated they'll be injecting a bunch of money and other types of support in their economy, as well, which creates a stark contrast with the US government, which seems to be refocusing on pulling government resources from across society and the economy, and spending mostly on tax cuts for the wealthiest people and biggest companies, instead.The US government's efforts to go America first, and not do anyone, even its longest-term, most reliable allies, any favors, or even trade in what might be considered a balanced way, thus seems to be scrambling US markets while simultaneously stoking those that are being cut off, unifying aspects of the rest of the world in antagonism against the US, while also providing them with incentive to reinvest in their own markets; which could be good for them long-term, making them less reliant on the US in all sorts of ways, but which seems pretty bad for the US in particular, short-term, and casts the US-dominated global order into disarray for the immediate future, with all sorts of consequences, economic and otherwise.The degree to which this impacts Trump's approval ratings has yet to be seen, as while his approval is collapsing, especially on the economy, right now, a lot of the most serious economic impacts are expected to fall hard on regions that most enthusiastically voted for him, and Republican talking points have already pivoted toward messaging that implies suffering for a while is good and patriotic.That message might succeed and keep people on side even as their investments collapse and tariff-driven inflation hits their bottom-lines, or it might not. But it seems like the administration is ramping up for a version of austerity that doesn't actually reduce the deficit, but instead takes a bunch of money from programs and investments that helped these areas, and moves it to other stuff that mostly helps fund tax cuts for wealthy allies of the administration—and that could come back to bite them, come election season.All of this is also happening in parallel to the many political maneuverings of the administration and its opposition, though, and just recently the Republican-held congress was able to pass a funding bill, moving a lot more authority and control to the White House; so whatever the short-term approval numbers show, none of this seems to be having much of a negative impact on Trump's control of government. That could change, though, over the course of the next year, leading into 2026's midterm election, when the makeup of congress could be influenced by these and similar decisions.Show Noteshttps://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-rise-after-volatile-week-consumer-data-tap-2025-03-14/https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/consumer-confidence-march-2025-drops-trump-trade-e7e0964dhttps://www.axios.com/2025/03/15/economic-indicators-recession-riskhttps://www.cnn.com/2025/03/14/investing/gold-price-today-3000-ounce-intl/index.htmlhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/14/us-stock-market-loses-5-trillion-in-value-in-three-weeks.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/business/russell-2000-bear-market.htmlhttps://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/us/politics/stock-market-correction-trump-tariffs.htmlhttps://www.nfib.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/NFIB-SBET-Report-Feb.-2025.pdfhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/your-money/car-shopping-trump-tariffs-cfpb.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/16/business/trump-sp-500-stocks-europe-china.htmlhttps://archive.ph/GNPRfhttps://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/issues/economyhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/15/business/economy/tariffs-trump-maps-voters.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/15/us/politics/trump-spending-bill-government-shutdown.htmlhttps://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/investing-stocks-risk-strategies-trump-policies-c4a5d3d9https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/trump-trade-tariffs-us-dollar-value-814cbe37https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-nasdaq-sp500-03-17-2025https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/16/wall-street-hoped-scott-bessent-would-keep-trump-in-check-he-had-other-ideas-00231771https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-mergers-acquisitions-ipos-hiring-slumps-trump-tariffs-2025-3https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/14/trump-trade-wars-consumer-sentiment-00230833https://archive.ph/fUKPshttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/13/business/economy/trump-tariff-timeline.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/business/energy-environment/trump-energy-oil-gas.htmlhttps://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/ This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit letsknowthings.substack.com/subscribe

S&P futures are pointing to a higher open today, up +0.55%. Asian markets rebounded on Wednesday, led by a +2.8% surge in Hong Kong's Hang Seng, driven by optimism over supportive policy measures announced at China's NPC. European markets also opened higher, as markets are reacting positively to Germany's proposed infrastructure fund and hopes for easing trade tensions.Companies Mentioned: Google, BlackRock

Following lower closes on Monday and Tuesday, S&P futures are indicating to a higher open today, up +0.45%. Asia markets ended mixed on Wednesday. The Hang Seng surged over +3%, hitting nearly three-year highs, fueled by a rally in Chinese technology stocks after DeepSeek reopened its core programming interface. However, Japan, Australia, and Singapore indices all ended slightly lower. European markets opened higher today, supported by strong earnings reports, though trade-related uncertainty remains a key overhang.Companies Mentioned: Nvidia, Arthur J. Gallagher, Flywire, Light & Wonder

Following lower closes yesterday, S&P futures are still pointing to a softer open today, down (0.13%). Asian markets were firmly lower on Tuesday, with the Nikkei dropping (1.4%) as it hit the lower end of its five-month trading range. The Hang Seng fell (1.3%) but saw mid-morning dip buying in tech stocks, supported by mainland inflows. European markets opened mixed but are edging higher, while bond yields are finding support amid safe-haven buying. Companies Mentioned: Apple, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Solventum Corp, Starbucks

S&P futures are up +0.08% as of now, pointing to a marginally higher open as markets weigh the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes and the potential impact of new U.S. tariffs on autos, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. Asian markets delivered a mixed performance on Wednesday. The Hang Seng fell slightly but saw continued gains in its tech index. European markets are mixed in early trading. Companies Mentioned: HP Inc, Shift4, Colgate-Palmolive, X Corp (formerly Twitter)