Podcasts about hang seng

S&P futures are indicating a flat open today. Asian markets finished higher Tuesday, with Hong Kong and mainland China leading gains. The Hang Seng rallied +1.8%, driven by strength in tech and cloud platform names. South Korea and Taiwan clawed back early losses, while Japan's Nikkei closed +0.5% higher. European markets are also higher in early trading. Companies Mentioned: NVIDIA, Marvell, Samsung Electronics, Hallador Energy, Salesforce, Amazon

19/5 Petrolio, Hormuz, inflazione e sell-off dei bond: rally a rischio? Usa-Iran, Trump posticipa l'attacco (di oggi) e rigetta la controproposta Iraniana. Al NYPOST: non accetto compromessi.  Bessent: waiver di 30 giorni al petrolio russo in mare. Brent a 110$, rendimenti Treasury in leggera ritirata.  Yardeni: La Fed alzerà i tassi a luglio. Evercore: 30% chance S&P500 a 9.000 punti entro fine anno. Putin da Xi Jinping, al centro Iran e energia (Power of Siberia 2). OpenAi: Musk perde il processo, verso il ricorso.  SpaceX la scommessa da duemila miliardi di dollari e i limiti tecnici dei datacenter nello spazio.  Nvidia, attesa per la trimestrale di domani. Huang: la Cina aprirà gradualmente il mercato agli H200. Google e Blackstone insieme per società cloud AI per competere con Coreweave.  SEC pronta al trading di azioni tokenizzate. *** Questo episodio è offerto da Scalable Capital   Investire comporta rischi  Interesse p.a. lordo variabile su liquidità illimitata. Condizioni e distribuzione della liquidità su scalable.capital/conto-deposito-non-vincolato*** Asia mista, tiene Hang Seng. Nikkei in calo dopo Pil 1Q oltre attese: +2,1%. Scende yen, rendimento dei bond sui massimi. Oggi Takaichi in Sud Corea. Kospi -2%. L'india alza di nuovo i prezzi di benzina e gas. In Europa futures in verde. Energia e deficit, apertura Ue: flessibilità è possibile. Meloni: via libera spesa tra 5-9 mld. Dazi Usa: oggi incontro funzionati Eu per accordo Turnberry. Commissione verso previsioni primavera: taglio al Pil, inflazione risale. IMF: La Boe non deve alzare i tassi, rivista crescita 2026. Il “niet” di Commerzbank a Unicredit. Focus su Enel, Leonardo e Ferretti.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Iscriviti a Black Box Script, la nuova newsletter di Black Box: ⁠⁠⁠https://blackboxchora.substack.com/⁠⁠⁠ Scopri The Last Question, il primo Tech Summit di Black Box a Roma l'1 e 2 luglio 2026: ⁠⁠⁠https://thelastquestion.choramedia.com/⁠ 12/5 Trump: il cessate il fioco è come un malato terminale, 1% di chances che sopravviva.  Allo studio interventi militari e nuovo Project freedom. Ghalibaf: “pronti a tutte le opzioni, resteranno sorpresi”. Attesa per vertice Trump-Xi sul tavolo potenziale fornitura armi cinesi a Iran. Con Trump una dozzina di CEOs tra cui Elon Musk, Tim Cook e Larry Fink. Atteso ordine record per Boeing. Brent +1% a 105 dollari. Per MS è una corsa contro il tempo. Per il CEO di Saudi Aramco il mercato potrebbe non normalizzarsi fino al 2027. Sale il dollaro, salgono rendimenti Treasury. Via libera al senato per Kevin Warsh, giovedì possibile passaggio consegne con Powell. Futures in rosso. S&P500 riparte da 7400 punti e dai record, idem per Nasdaq . oggi attesa per Cpi a 3,8% +0,6% mese su mese, Core al 2,7%. Anche per Goldman Sachs e Bofa Fed in pausa nel 2026. Bolla come nel 1999? Wall Street divisa sulla corsa verticale dei chip. Ieri altra riscossa dei semiconduttori con Western Digital, Micron, Intel, Nvidia che ha battuto un nuovo record storico.  Nadella al processo Musk-Altman: tentativo rimozione Altman da board “amatoriale”. Amazon i dipendenti “gonfiano” utilizzo MeshClaw. Iscriviti a The Talk, la newsletter di Will e Chora che mette al centro le storie delle donne: ⁠⁠⁠https://thetalkwillmedia.substack.com/⁠⁠⁠ *** Questo episodio è offerto da Scalable Capital   Investire comporta rischi  Interesse p.a. lordo variabile su liquidità illimitata. Condizioni e distribuzione della liquidità su scalable.capital/conto-deposito-non-vincolato*** Asia mista, Nikkei e Hang Seng in verde. Kospi -2% (perdeva oltre il 5%): per il reponsabile delle politiche presidenziali profitti e entrare fiscali AI dovrebbero essere restituiti ai cittadini. Bessent incontra la ministra Katayama: coordinati su interventi Yen. Poi a Seoul per incontro con vice-premier cinese Le Hefeng. Bond giapponesi: rendimento max da 27 anni: BOJ verso aumento tassi a giugno. In Europa futures… Oggi Inflazione aprile in Germania e ZEW maggio. Italia:  Produzione industriale marzo. Masayoshi Son valuta investimento da 100mld in datacenter in Francia. Focus su Gilt, oggi riunione di Governo: Starmer resiste. Mediobanca: ricavi in crescita, CIB in recupero. Fincantieri ordini primi 4 mesi superano obiettivo annuale. Guidance alzata. Focus su TIM. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

11/5 Trump rifiuta la controproposta iraniana: “totalmente inaccettabile”. Nethanyau: la guerra non è finita, l'uranio va rimosso. Corre il Brent oltre 105$. Scorte petrolio: minimi dal 2018. Jet fuel europeo ai minimi da sei anni. Diesel Usa sui massimi, Wright pronti a sospendere imposte. Hormuz: passa una nave del Qatar che trasporta Gnl. Altri attacchi di droni alle navi. Futures misti: salgono dollaro e rendimento Treasury, Bitcoin sopra 80.000. Settimana nel segno di trimestrali e dati macro (inflazione, PPI, vendite detttafglio). Fed, venerdì ultimo giorno di Powell (che rimane nel board) per Pimco e Franklin Templeton dovrà alzare i tassi. Corsa inarrestabile dei chip: performance e analisi. L'Inizio di un nuovo super-ciclo? Michael Burry: bolla come durante le dot.com. Cerebras il competitor di Nvidia prepara Ipo: forchetta sale a 150-160$ vista domanda. Aspettando Trump e Xi: le quattro “T” sul tavolo: Trade, Teheran, Technolgy, Taiwan. Per l'Economist è il G2 del sospetto.  YouTube  *** Questo episodio è offerto da Scalable Capital   Investire comporta rischi  Interesse p.a. lordo variabile su liquidità illimitata. Condizioni e distribuzione della liquidità su scalable.capital/conto-deposito-non-vincolato*** Asia mista, Nikkei e Hang Seng in rosso. Kospi +4% di nuovo da record con nuovi massimi di SK Hynix e Samsung, In Cina sale l' Inflazione ad aprile +1,2% sopra attese; Prezzi produzione +2,8%. Import petrolio scende del 20% rispetto mese precedente. Oggi Bessent in Giappone: azione coordinata sullo Yen? PBOC fixing Yuan ai massimi da tre anni In Europa futures in verde. Focus su dati macro (inflazione), attesa per le parole di Lagarde. Bce, De Guindos: intervento Germania su Unicredit - Commerzbank contro spirito mercato unico. Armani verso vendita tripartita del 15% a L'Oreal, LVMH e EssilorLuxottica. Focus su: Delfin, Intesa SP, Diasorin, Tenaris, automotive.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

S&P futures are flat ahead of the Fed's rate decision and Mag 7 earnings later today. Asian equities were mostly higher on Wednesday. The Hang Seng led gains, closing up +1.7%, as property and materials stocks rallied. Mainland China benchmarks followed suit. Japan was closed for a public holiday, while South Korea extended its rally. European markets are trading lower, adding to recent declines. Companies Mentioned: Disney, OpenAI, Anthropic

Trump has told officials to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, WSJ; Trump said they are doing very well in the Middle East.APAC equity performance incrementally improved across the session, with outperformance in the Hang Seng & Shanghai Composite.USD rangebound, lifted briefly on the WSJ report. Peers are broadly contained into the Fed.Fixed income was hit on the WSJ report, but has since retraced the move.Energy benchmarks jumped on the blockade update, but the move was relatively short-lived. Precious metals contained, base peers followed China higher.Looking ahead, highlights include Spanish HICP (Apr), German State/Nationwide HICP (Apr), EZ Economic Sentiment (Apr), US Durable Goods (Mar), US Housing Starts (Feb/Mar), Wholesale Inventories (Mar), Fed/BoC/BCB Policy Announcements (Apr), Speakers include BoC's Macklem & Fed Chair Powell, Supply from Italy & Germany.Earnings from Microsoft, Amazon.com, Meta, Alphabet, Ford, Qualcomm, Carvana, SoFi, Humana, Novartis, TotalEnergies, Iberdrola, GSK, Lloyds, Deutsche Bank, Mercedes-Benz, Adidas & Porsche AG.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

From Nikkei to Hang Seng, the global signals are flashing red. Today, Sanket Bendre breaks down why the Nifty lost its momentum despite a positive start to the week. We discuss the impact of the rising trade deficit on Indian equities and why the IT sector's bounce-back proved to be a "dead cat bounce." Get the expert take on how to navigate this high-volatility environment and protect your portfolio.

From Nikkei to Hang Seng, the global signals are flashing red. Today, Sanket Bendre breaks down why the Nifty lost its momentum despite a positive start to the week. We discuss the impact of the rising trade deficit on Indian equities and why the IT sector's bounce-back proved to be a "dead cat bounce." Get the expert take on how to navigate this high-volatility environment and protect your portfolio.

From Nikkei to Hang Seng, the global signals are flashing red. Today, Sanket Bendre breaks down why the Nifty lost its momentum despite a positive start to the week. We discuss the impact of the rising trade deficit on Indian equities and why the IT sector's bounce-back proved to be a "dead cat bounce." Get the expert take on how to navigate this high-volatility environment and protect your portfolio.

VOV1 - Thị trường tài chính toàn cầu biến động mạnh trong phiên đầu tuần (13/4) khi căng thẳng giữa Mỹ và Iran leo thang, đẩy giá dầu tăng vọt và khiến chứng khoán châu Á đồng loạt giảm điểm, trong bối cảnh giới đầu tư lo ngại nền kinh tế đang tiến gần “điểm tới hạn”.Giá dầu Brent đã tăng hơn 7% lên trên 100 USD/thùng sau khi Mỹ tuyên bố phong tỏa hoạt động vận chuyển liên quan đến Iran qua eo biển Hormuz, động thái diễn ra ngay sau khi các cuộc đàm phán hòa bình cuối tuần qua không đạt tiến triển.Diễn biến này làm dấy lên lo ngại về gián đoạn nguồn cung năng lượng từ Trung Đông – khu vực then chốt của thị trường dầu mỏ toàn cầu và gây áp lực lên các tài sản rủi ro. Hợp đồng tương lai S&P 500 giảm, trong khi đồng USD tăng giá và lợi suất trái phiếu toàn cầu đi lên.Tại châu Á, các thị trường chứng khoán đồng loạt giảm điểm. Chỉ số Nikkei 225 của Nhật Bản giảm gần 0,9% ngay đầu phiên, trong khi KOSPI của Hàn Quốc mất hơn 2%. Chỉ số Hang Seng của Hồng Kông cũng giảm, còn thị trường Trung Quốc đại lục mở cửa trong sắc đỏ.Giáo sư Buhui Qiu từ Đại học Sydney, Australia, nhận định thị trường đang ở “điểm tới hạn” đồng thời cảnh báo xung đột kéo dài sẽ làm gia tăng áp lực lên nền kinh tế toàn cầu: “Cần phải chuẩn bị cho kịch bản này. Hiện chưa thể biết khi nào tình hình sẽ được khơi thông trở lại, vì vậy thị trường chứng khoán đang chịu áp lực rất lớn. Đặc biệt, các thị trường như Nhật Bản, Hàn Quốc và Ấn Độ sẽ bị ảnh hưởng nặng nề. Những ngành phụ thuộc nhiều vào dầu mỏ như hàng không, vận tải, tiêu dùng chu kỳ hay hóa chất sẽ là những lĩnh vực chịu tác động mạnh nhất.”Về thị trường chứng khoán và tiền tệ ông Buhui Qiu nhận định: “Nhà đầu tư sẽ chuyển hướng khỏi thị trường chứng khoán sang các kênh đầu tư khác, ví dụ như vàng hoặc trái phiếu, để tìm kiếm những nơi trú ẩn an toàn, và điều này sẽ gây thêm áp lực lên thị trường chứng khoán trong khu vực. Và cũng có thể mọi người sẽ bán bớt một số loại tiền tệ châu Á và chuyển sang đô la Mỹ nhiều hơn, vì vậy bạn sẽ thấy đô la Mỹ mạnh lên so với nhiều loại tiền tệ châu Á hiện nay, bao gồm cả đô la Australia”Ở chiều ngược lại, một số ý kiến chuyên gia cho rằng thị trường vẫn chưa hoàn toàn tin vào khả năng Mỹ mở rộng hành động quân sự quy mô lớn. Tuy nhiên, không thể phủ nhận rủi ro lạm phát đang gia tăng rõ rệt, đặc biệt nếu cú sốc giá dầu kéo dài trong thời gian tới. Ngoài ra, các ngân hàng trung ương lớn như Ngân hàng Trung ương châu Âu và Ngân hàng Anh được dự báo là có thể phải chuyển hướng sang tăng lãi suất để kiểm soát lạm phát, thay vì nới lỏng chính sách như kỳ vọng trước đó.Các nhà phân tích nhận định, nếu căng thẳng địa chính trị tiếp tục leo thang và nguồn cung năng lượng bị gián đoạn kéo dài, nền kinh tế toàn cầu có thể đối mặt với nguy cơ suy giảm tăng trưởng, thậm chí rơi vào suy thoái trong thời gian tới./. Hoàng Nguyễn / VOV1

US equity futures lower with S&P down. Bonds are firmer, with treasury yields backing up. US 10-year adds 3 bps to 4.4%. Similar move seen in Gilts. Bund higher at 3%. Dollar rallies. Oil sharply higher. WTI crude above $106/bbl and Brent near $108. Gold lower. Industrial metals lower. Bitcoin falls. European equity markets are lower, Asian equity markets under pressure, with deep losses for Kospi. Nikkei is more than 2% lower. Hang Seng also weaker. Sentiment deteriorated after Trump's address on Iran. While he touted military accomplishments and reiterated aim of ending strikes in 2-3 weeks, he also hinted at escalation and there was a lack of emphasis on negotiations for a clear pathway to end conflict. He reiterated threat to destroy energy plants if no deal reached. Note that earlier reports mentioned ceasefire offer conditional on reopening Strait of Hormuz, but NY Times intel sources said Iran sees no reason for serious talks amid belief it has leverage.Companies mentioned: Kakao Mobility, Uber, Amazon, Globalstar, Estee Lauder, Puig

S&P futures are pointing to a slightly higher open following Monday's sharp rebound. Asian markets advanced on Tuesday, though most indices closed off their peaks. Outperformers today were Japan's Topix, South Korea's Kospi and Hong Kong's Hang Seng. European equity markets opened modestly higher following a volatile Monday. Companies Mentioned: Gilead Sciences, Estée Lauder, Exxon Mobil

S&P futures are down (0.8%) as escalating tension in the Middle East continues to weigh down sentiment. Asian markets were plummeting today, with Japan and Greater China benchmarks all down near (3.5%). The Nikkei hit a year-to-date low, while the Hang Seng fell to its lowest level since mid-2025. South Korea and Taiwan also saw heavy losses, with chipmakers and tech stocks under intense pressure. European markets are also sharply lower in early trading. Companies Mentioned: Palantir, Synopsys, OpenAI

S&P futures are down (0.3%) as concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East and spiking energy prices weigh on investor sentiment. Asian markets closed broadly lower on Thursday with Japan's Nikkei plummeting near (4%). The Hang Seng and Kospi also dropped over (2%) each, as weakness in tech and cyclical sectors added to the downside. European markets are also under significant pressure in early trading, with the STOXX 600, FTSE 100, DAX, and CAC all down around (1.5%).Companies Mentioned: Anthropic, Align Technology, Constellation Energy

La déclaration coordonnée des pays du G7 hier, se disant prêts à puiser dans leurs réserves stratégiques de pétrole pour contenir la flambée des prix à clairement rassurer les investisseursDans un élan partagé par l'ensemble des grandes places européennes, le CAC 40 a progressé de 1,7 %, franchissant de nouveau la barre des 8 000 points.Même dynamique en Asie où le Nikkei avait clôturé mardi matin en hausse de près de 3% et le Hang Seng à +2,2%.Le mouvement s'explique en grande partie par le net recul des cours du pétrole, repassé sous les 100 dollars après avoir frôlé les sommets de 2022 en tout début de semaine.Côté devise, l'indice dollar était en légère baisse en fin de séance européenne hier porté par l'amélioration du sentiment de risque.Les investisseurs se concentreront aujourd'hui sur la publication des données d'inflation américaine. Indicateur incontournable à l'heure où le marché s'interroge sur la stratégie monétaire de la réserve fédérale américaine.Hébergé par Ausha. Visitez ausha.co/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

S&P futures are up +0.3% right now as risk sentiment improves amid hopes for de-escalation in the Iran conflict. Asian equities rallied today, supported by a sharp correction in crude prices. Japan's Nikkei advanced +2.8%, followed by Hong Kong's Hang Seng, which closed near +2% higher. South Korea and Taiwan also saw strong gains, while India posted more modest increases. European equity futures point to a strong start, with major benchmarks all up over +1%. This follows Monday's losses, where the energy sector was the only performer in the black. Companies Mentioned: Anthropic, Disney, Apple, NVIDIA

A viewer asked: if NIO trades in Hong Kong too, why is the volume low over there as well?It's one of the best questions from yesterday's episode — and the answer actually strengthens the thesis rather than challenging it.In this quick 5-minute take, Obi breaks down:— Why the Hang Seng is still below its 2007 peak nearly 20 years later— Why domestic Chinese retail and global institutional money are both cautious right now— Why low volume on both NYSE and Hong Kong confirms this is a global sentiment problem— Why the unlock, when it comes, will hit both exchanges at the same time— 6 days to NIO's potential first-ever quarterly profit on March 10thFollow-up to Episode 2: "Why Won't They Let It Fly?"Courtside Financial. Hosted by Obi.

24/2 Wall Street prova il rimbalzo, futures in verde, stasera lo State of The Union di Trump. Bitcoin sotto 63mila dollari, prese di profitto su oro e argento. Caos dazi, agenzia dogane: da oggi in vigore dazi globali al 10%. Europa: dazi al 15% violano accordi. Tornano i timori di obsolescenza di interi settori scatenati da AI. Software sotto pressione (-5% sui minimi dal 2003) per MS, e JPM non ha ancora toccato il fondo. Segue il private equity che è molto esposto al software. Il “Rapporto Citrini” su un futuro distopico AI affossa finanziari (peggior seduta dal day after del Liberation Day), sistemi di pagamento e carte di credito. IBM peggior seduta dal 2000 su nuovo use case Claude Code che modernizza COBOLT. Novo Nordisk -15%, Anthropic accusa le società cinesi AI di frode, Paramount presenta nuova offerta per WB Discovery. Nvidia: quanto vale prima dei conti? In Asia, ripartono Cina e Nikkei. Hang-Seng sotto il preso Tech. Banca centrale cinese: tassi prestiti invariati. Yen in calo su dollaro, Usa avviano “Rate check”, intervento congiunto sul tavolo. Europa, quattro anni di guerra in Ucraina. Leader EU a Kiev dopo che Orban ha bloccato 90mld prestiti. Futures in rosso. Focus su Enel, Unicredit (editoriale Orcel su Sole24), Saipem, Automotive (Stellantis, crescono immatricolazioni a gennaio) e Telecom Italia oggi conti e aggiornamento Piano.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

APAC stocks followed suit to the predominantly negative mood on Wall Street, where risk appetite was subdued amid private credit fund concerns and geopolitical risks.Hang Seng retreated on return from the Lunar New Year holidays, with the big tech names leading the declines in the index, while mainland markets and the Stock Connect remained shut and won't open until next Tuesday.USD/JPY lingered near the prior day's best levels north of 155.00, with some mild support seen as the cooling of Japanese inflation essentially provides the BoJ additional policy space.US President Trump said 15 days is the maximum deadline to reach an agreement with Iran; otherwise, it will be very unfortunate for them, according to Al Jazeera; US President Trump reportedly weighs a limited strike to force Iran into a nuclear deal, WSJ reported.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.5% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.7% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include ECB EZ Indicator of Negotiated Wages; UK Retail Sales (Jan), PSNB (Jan), German PPI (Jan), Global Flash PMIs (Feb), Canadian Retail Sales (Jan), US PCE/GDP (Dec/Q4). Speakers include Fed's Logan & Bostic, Earnings from Anglo American.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

S&P futures are pointing to a slightly higher open today ahead of a busy earnings slate. Asian markets ended mixed on Wednesday. Japan's Nikkei underperformed due to a selloff in software names on AI disruption fears. The Hang Seng was flat while the Shanghai Composite was higher on stronger-than-expected services PMI data. European benchmarks are flat or slightly higher in early trading.Companies Mentioned: NVIDIA, Texas Instruments, Ford, OpenAI

S&P futures are up +0.3% and pointing to another higher open today. Asian equities were mostly higher on Wednesday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng surged +2.6% to a four-year high, supported by a broad tech rally. South Korea's Kospi and Taiwan both saw strong gains, with rotation into emerging market assets bolstering sentiment. Gains in Mainland China and Japan were more modest. European markets are trading lower, with the French CAC lagging with a (1.1%) decline driven by weakness in luxury goods. Companies Mentioned: SpaceX, OpenAI, NVIDIA, SK Hynix

S&P futures is up +0.2% and pointing to a higher open today. Asian equities closed broadly higher Tuesday. SK Hynix has emerged as the exclusive supplier of HBM chips for Microsoft's Maia 200 AI chip, driving outsized gains in South Korea's markets. Japan's Nikkei was also higher on strength in exporters, while the Hang Seng led Greater China market gains. European markets are also higher in early trading. Companies Mentioned: Meta, SK Hynix, Ford, General Motors

APAC stocks were mostly pressured at the start of a risk-packed week and following on from the tech-led declines stateside amid a rotation out of AI, while participants digested economic releases, including the BoJ Tankan and Chinese activity data.The BoJ Tankan survey showed sentiment of Large Manufacturers was at the highest in four years, which supports the case for a rate hike.Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued after the latest Chinese activity data disappointed, and house prices continued to contract, with tech and biotech leading the declines in Hong Kong.US President Trump said on Friday that he is leaning towards Kevin Warsh or Kevin Hassett to lead the Fed and that the next Fed Chair should consult with him on interest rates.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.4% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.6% on Friday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Wholesale Price Index, EZ Industrial Production (Oct), Canadian CPI (Nov), US Advance Goods Trade Balance (Sep), and Australian PMI (Dec). Speakers include Fed's Miran, Williams, & RBA's Jones.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

S&P futures are trending slightly higher following the Thanksgiving holiday. We note that the U.S. markets will close early today at 1 PM Eastern Time. Asian markets ended mixed in quiet trading on Friday. Nikkei edged higher, while the Hang Seng closed marginally lower. Mainland China saw modest gains, and South Korea's Kospi fell sharply due to weakness in chip stocks. European markets are flat to mixed, following firmer levels on Thursday. Companies Mentioned: Jefferies Financial, Getty Images, Baidu

Die Babos sprachen heute „Börse“ – und das knapp eine Stunde lang. Daran merkt man, dass es heute viele Themen zu besprechen gab. An den Börsen geht es aktuell etwas volatiler zu – kein Wunder nach sechs positiven Monaten im Nasdaq und vielen neuen Höchstständen. Und genau in solchen Zeiten wird pauschal über „Blasen“ und „Crashes“ gesprochen. Heute ordnen die Investmentbabos Michael und Endrit ein, wie eine Blase entsteht und ob wir uns aktuell in einer solchen befinden. Darüber hinaus werden die Nachrichten aus China über eine weiterhin schrumpfende Wirtschaft – insbesondere im verarbeitenden Gewerbe – thematisiert. Ebenso besprechen sie, weshalb der Hang Seng trotzdem so gut läuft und wie es in Deutschland angesichts der BIP-Stagnation aussieht. Nicht zuletzt geht es auch um den neu gewählten Bürgermeister in New York, einst die Hauptstadt des Kapitalismus. Viele Themen – und natürlich auch viele Insights und Insiders. Daher lohnt es sich, die Stunde zu investieren. Happy Weekend! Liebe Grüße Michael Duarte & Endrit Cela - Besuchen Sie uns auf unserer Website: https://www.investmentbabo.com - Liken Sie uns auf Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Investmentbabo - Folgen Sie uns auf Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/investmentbabo - Folgen Sie uns auf Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/investmentbabo DISCLAIMER: Der Inhalt dieses Podcasts dient ausschließlich der allgemeinen Information. Diese Informationen können und sollen eine individuelle Beratung durch hierfür qualifizierte Personen nicht ersetzen. Die Informationen in Bezug auf die von der Clartan Associés und AMF Capital AG verwalteten Sondervermögen stellen keine Anlageberatung und keine Kaufempfehlung dar.

S&P futures are up +0.4% and pointing to a higher open. Asian equities began the week's trading on a high note, with Japan's Nikkei surging over +3% as political clarity boosted sentiment. Hong Kong's Hang Seng also gained +2.4%, led by sharp advances in big tech. European markets are also higher in early trade as gains are being supported by easing US-China tensions and strong momentum from Asian markets. However, the French CAC is lagging slightly, following S&P's decision to downgrade France's credit rating late last week. Companies Mentioned: Tesla, Hologic, The Cooper Cos, Boeing

S&P futures are up +0.5% and pointing to a higher open today. Asian markets posted solid gains on Wednesday, led by Japan's Nikkei and Hong Kong's Hang Seng, both up over +1.5% as tech shares rebounded. European markets are also moving higher in early trades. The French CAC is leading with a +1.5% advance as French PM Lecornu's willingness to suspend pension reform to secure political support provided some relief, though a vote of confidence is looming on Thursday. U.S.-China trade tensions continue to generate volatility, with President Trump indicating on Truth Social a potential halt to trade on cooking oil products, citing China's refusal to purchase U.S. soybeans. This follows recent threats to double tariffs in response to China's expanded rare earth restrictions, although Trump later reassured that resolution is possible. Companies Mentioned: Apple, Eli Lily, Papa John's

Tiefergehende Aktien-Analysen, Branchen-Deep-Dives und eine Datenbank aus über 1.000 Folgen? Mehr Infos zu unserer neuen Plattform gibt's unter oaws.de. Aktien hören ist gut. Aktien kaufen ist noch besser. Unser Partner Scalable Capital ist jetzt Bank und bietet euch dadurch jetzt noch bessere Konditionen. Mehr Infos findet ihr unter: scalable.capital/oaws. Pepsi geht's ok. Costco & Delta geht's top. China pusht MP Materials, USA Rare Earth & Ramaco. Novo Nordisk kauft Akero. HSBC will Hang Seng kaufen. Investoren wollen PSI kaufen. KNDS vielleicht an Börse. Ottobock erfolgreich an Börse. Gerresheimer fällt. Weniger E-Autos, weniger Wachstum. Ferrari hat die Börse enttäuscht (WKN: A141GE). Sixt hat höhere Margen und weniger Schulden als die Konkurrenz. Sixt (WKN: 723133) hat auch zwei Aktiengattungen. Eine davon zahlt massenhaft Dividende. Diesen Podcast vom 10.10.2025, 3:00 Uhr stellt dir die Podstars GmbH (Noah Leidinger) zur Verfügung.

Gold surges, Hong Kong banks tumble, and Uniqlo hits another record - what’s really driving markets this week? HSBC’s massive Hang Seng buyout shocks investors, while Wall Street buzzes over the “debasement trade” as commodities soar. Michelle Martin and Ryan Huang unpack what’s behind gold at US$4,000, silver at US$50, and Asia’s shifting sentiment. Plus: quick takes on PepsiCo, TSMC, Delta, Ferrari, Top Glove, and Fast Retailing. From matcha trends to market turns - this is your morning market intelligence, hosted by Michelle Martin with Ryan Huang.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US equity futures are higher with S&P going up. European and Asian equity markets both higher. Hang Seng outperforms amid tech gains. Bonds firmer, which sees US 10-year yield off 4 bps at 4.1%. Dollar softer, oil down, gold up. Industrial metals are mostly firmer. After global pharma shares came under pressure last Friday from President Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on branded drugs, Europe and Japan officials expressed confidence that their levies will be capped at the 15% stipulated in their respective trade agreements with US, according to press. White House official said UK faces 100% levy given there was no specific stipulation for pharmas in their US deal. Sources indicated British government set to concede UK should pay more for some medicines and Starmer chief business adviser Chandra will travel to Washington next week to convey such overtures.Companies Mentioned: TotalEnergies, Occidental Petroleum, Merus, Genmab

S&P futures are down (0.3%) with major tech names edging lower in pre-market trading. Asian equities finished Monday mixed. Japan's Nikkei rebounded after Friday's BOJ-related drop, and the Hang Seng underperformed. Gains were seen in Australia, Taiwan, and South Korea, supported by semiconductor optimism. European benchmarks are mostly softer in early trades. Companies Mentioned: TikTok, Pfizer, Boeing, Comcast

Ahead of today's FOMC decision, S&P futures are pointing to a flat open. Asian equities ended Wednesday trading mixed, with the Hang Seng surging on strength in internet and technology stocks, while European equity markets are mostly firmer in early trades. Attention is focused on the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee decision, with a 25 basis point rate cut fully priced in. Market reactions may hinge on Fed commentary and the updated dot plot, which will shape expectations for approximately 150 basis points of easing over the next year.Companies Mentioned: Tiktok, Apple

Riding on momentum from Tuesday's fresh record highs, S&P futures are up +0.3% and pointing to another higher open. Asian markets closed broadly higher, led by the Hang Seng's +1% gain and the Kospi nearing its record high. European equity markets are also firmer in early trades with major benchmarks all edging higher. AI expansion continues to drive positive sentiment in the tech sector, with Asian semis stocks benefiting from a rally in US peers. Oracle surged +28% after reporting strong growth in cloud infrastructure bookings, while Google Cloud shared a bullish update, projecting that at least 55% of its $106B in customer commitments will convert to revenue within two years. Companies Mentioned: KKR, Airbus, Oracle, Google, Chevron

S&P futures are pointing to a higher open today, up +0.5%. Asian markets traded higher today with the Nikkei outperforming and Hang Seng setting a third consecutive day of gains. European markets are also firmer in early trades. In a CNBC interview, President Trump reiterated key trade positions, particularly targeting India and China. He criticized India's Russian energy purchases, BRICS participation, high tariffs, and resistance to market access, threatening to hike existing 25% tariffs with a decision expected shortly. India is reportedly considering responses, including easing dairy market access and supporting affected exporters. On China, Trump stated that a trade deal is very close, with a potential meeting with President Xi by year-end, contingent on progress.Companies Mentioned: Walt Disney, OpenAI, Boeing

S&P futures are pointing to a flat open today, up +0.1%. Asian markets traded broadly higher today, with the Nikkei and Hang Seng both up +0.6%. European equity markets are also firmer in early trades. Tensions between the U.S. and India have escalated after former President Trump threatened significant tariff hikes on India over its purchase of Russian oil. This follows a 25% tariff imposed by Trump last week. However, both nations remain engaged in dialogue, with talks scheduled for late August. India is reportedly considering increased purchases of U.S. gas, communication equipment, and gold but remains firm on protecting its agricultural and dairy sectors. Companies Mentioned: STAAR Surgical, Core Scientific

Fed kept rates on hold with dissent from Waller and Bowman. Powell said will not let tariffs become inflationary.BoJ maintained rates as expected, raised growth and inflation outlook. Continued to note uncertainty over trade.US equity futures rebounded after-hours with strength in tech/AI-related names after Microsoft (+8.3%) and Meta (+11.5%) smashed Q2 earnings.US President Trump announced that South Korea will be subject to a 15% and make USD 350bln in investments in the US.European equity futures suggest a mildly positive open. Hang Seng lags post-disappointing Chinese PMIs.DXY rally pauses for breath, EUR/USD remains on a 1.14 handle. USTs rebounded off the lows after post-Powell pressure.Looking ahead, highlights include French CPI, PPI, German Unemployment Rate, CPI, EZ Unemployment Rate, Italian CPI, US Challenger Layoffs, PCE (Jun), Jobless Claims, Employment Wages, Chicago PMI, Atlanta Fed GDPNow, Canadian GDP, SARB Policy Announcement.Earnings from Shell, Unilever, LSE, Haleon, Standard Chartered, Anglo American, Sanofi, Schneider Electric, Safran, Credit Agricole, Saint Gobain, SocGen, Accor, Teleperformance, Air France, AB InBev, BBVA, Holcim Puma, Lufthansa, BMW, Apple, Amazon, Strategy, Coinbase, Reddit, Roku, CVS, Roblox, AbbVie, Norwegian Cruise Line, Cigna, Mastercard & PG&E.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

S&P futures are pointing to a flat open today, up +0.1%. Asian markets traded mixed on Wednesday. The Nikkei closed flat, while the Hang Seng fell (1.4%), weighed down by weakness in tech and property stocks. European markets are marginally higher in early trades. The U.S. and China concluded two days of trade talks in Stockholm without significant breakthroughs but described the discussions as constructive. Key issues included U.S. concerns over China's purchases of sanctioned Iranian and Russian crude, industrial overcapacity, and rare earths trade, while China raised concerns over fentanyl tariffs and export controls. No commitments were made on structural reforms or rebalancing China's economy. Companies Mentioned: Anthropic, Kraken, Intercontinental Exchange

S&P futures are pointing to a lower open today, down (0.6%). European equity markets also opened in the red, with the major indices roughly down by (0.5%). Asian markets traded mixed with Greater China markets outperforming. The Hang Seng surged +1.8%, boosted by gains in consumer-oriented and property stocks, while the Shanghai Composite hit a 3.5-year high. President Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian goods not covered by the USMCA, effective 1-Aug, increasing from the current 25%. Energy-related goods remain at a 10% tariff. Trump hinted at potential baseline tariffs of 15 to 20%, up from the current 10%, and suggested similar measures might target the EU soon. Companies Mentioned: Google, Boyd Gaming, Panasonic

S&P futures are pointing to a flat open today. Asian markets traded mixed today with Japan's Nikkei logging small gains, supported by resilience in manufacturing. The Hang Seng underperformed, as property and tech stocks lagged. European markets are trading higher, with the DAX and CAC leading gains. President Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper, set for late July or early August implementation, and proposed a 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals with a longer timeline. He ruled out extending the August 1 deadline, emphasizing his tough stance on trade while accusing BRICS nations of undermining the U.S. dollar and threatening an additional 10% tariff. Companies Mentioned: Apple, Starbucks, Merck, Verona Pharma, AES Corp

S&P futures are pointing to a slightly higher open today, up +0.1%. Asian markets had a mixed session on Thursday. The Hang Seng dropped (0.6%) amidst weakness in property stocks while Japan's Nikkei dipped as uncertainty around trade talks weighed on sentiment. European markets are broadly higher in early trades, with the STOXX 600 up +0.3% and the FTSE 100 leading at +0.5%. President Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on exports to the U.S. and 40% on transshipments, reduced from an earlier proposed 46%. The U.S. will face zero tariffs on exports to Vietnam, though specifics on product groups and transshipment provisions remain unclear. Companies Mentioned: Old Point Financial, Apollo Global Management, TripAdvisor

S&P futures are pointing to a higher open today, up +0.2%. Asian markets finished Wednesday trading mostly lower, with the Hang Seng slightly higher and Japan's Nikkei weighed down by renewed tariff concerns. European equities are broadly showing strength in early sessions with the French CAC leading gains. President Trump stated he is not considering extending the July 9 deadline for resuming higher tariffs and reiterated the possibility of imposing duty rates on several nations, including Japan. Trump criticized Japan's limited U.S. rice imports and imbalance in auto trade, suggesting future tariffs could range from 30% to 35%.Companies Mentioned: Paramount Global, Intel, Spectris

US equity futures are pointing slightly up. European markets are narrowly mixed, while Asia go broadly higher, with decent gains for Nikkei and Hang Seng. Kospi extended recent post-election outperformance. For treasuries, 10-year yields stay steady at 4.5% after backing up sharply in prior session. Dollar softer, oil down, gold softer, industrial metals mixed. Attention on trade developments with US and China resuming talks in London with export licenses a key topic of discussion. NEC Director Hassett confirmed US is seeking agreement on rare earths from London talks. For its part China has taken issue with US principally over tech export controls and Huawei crackdown, which were attributed in part for Beijing maintaining its rare earths export curbs. Unclear whether the latest talks will lead to resolution of divisions between US and China, leaving fate of tariffs unknown.Companies Mentioned: Qualcomm Inc, Alphawave IP Group, Quartzsea Acquisition Corp, Meta Platforms

S&P futures are pointing lower today, down (0.47%). European equity markets are firmer, following slightly weaker levels on Monday. Asian equity markets went mostly higher, with Hang Seng a notable outperformer. Overnight, US 2-year yield down 1 bps to 3.9% and 10-year down 3 bps to 4.4%. Dollar firmer, oil up, gold down, industrial metals lower. Renewed US-China trade tensions has spilled into public view with both sides accusing each other of reneging on Geneva deal. White House talking up prospects of a Trump-Xi call this week but no confirmation yet from China. Critical minerals remain source of tensions with China reportedly slow walking offer to relax rare earths curbs, a response to latest US tech curbs and revocation of Chinese student visas. Companies Mentioned: Snowflake, Merck, Crunchy Data, MoonLake Immunotherapeutics

S&P futures are pointing lower today, down (0.5%). European equity markets are weaker. Asian markets are lower, with Nikkei, Hang Seng and Taiwan underperforming, mainland China closed for public holiday. Overnight, treasury yields went up, with the two year up 2bps and the ten year up 5bps. The U.S. dollar weaker, oil up, gold gains, industrial metals higher. Trade tensions weighing on risk appetite. US-China relations fraying a month with two sides accusing the other of violating Geneva agreement. Main disagreements revolve around US frustration at China slow walking offer of relaxing rare earths curbs and China taking issue with US at new export restrictions. On geopolitical front, China rebuked US after Defense Secretary Hegseth warned of potentially imminent Taiwan invasion. Renewed tensions come as press sources noted efforts underway to set up a Trump-Xi call in bid to move forward talks.Companies Mentioned: Qualcomm, Alphawave IP Group, Sanofi, Blueprint Medicines, BASF

S&P futures are pointing lower, down (1.2%). European equity markets are lower, near worse levels. Asian equities are broadly weaker with Hang Seng leading China markets lower. Japan, Korea and Australia all in negative territory. Overnight, treasury yields were mixed, with 2-year down 1 bp and 10-year up 7 bps to 4.5%. Dollar is weaker across the board. Gold has been rebounding after posting worst week since mid twenty twenty one. Crude and copper tracking equity market declines. Bitcoin erased earlier gain. Moody's downgraded US credit rating late Friday, citing growth in government debt and projected widening of deficits if tax cuts are extended. Downgrade plays into market's longstanding deficit concerns driven by Trump policy agenda that have contributed to upward rise in long-term yields and term premium widening to highest since 2014Companies mentioned: NVIDIA, Assura, BT Group

This week we talk about taxes, reciprocity, and recession.We also discuss falling indices, stagflation, and theories of operation.Recommended Book: The Serviceberry by Robin Wall KimmererTranscriptStagflation, which is a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation, is exactly what it sounds like: a combination of those two elements, usually with high levels of unemployment, as well, that can cause a prolonged period of economic sluggishness and strain that slows growth and can even lead to a recession.The term was coined in the UK in the 1960s to describe issues they were facing at the time, but it was globally popularized by the oil shocks of the 1970s, which sparked a period of high prices and slow growth in many countries, including in the US, where inflation boomed, productivity floundered, and economic growth plateaud, leading to a stock market crash in 1973 and 1974.Inflation, unto itself, can be troubling, as it means prices are going up faster than incomes, so the money people earn and have saved is worth less and less each day. That leads to a bunch of negative knock-on effects, which is a big part of why the US Fed has kept interest rates so high, aiming to trim inflation rates back to their preferred level of about 2% as quickly as possible in the wake of inflation surges following the height of the Covid pandemic.Stagnant economic growth is also troubling, as it means lowered GDP, reduced future outlook for an economy, and that also tends to mean less investment in said economy, reduced employment levels—and likely even lower employment levels in the future—and an overall sense of malaise that can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, no one feeling particularly upbeat about where their country is going; and that's not great economically, but it can also lead to all sorts of social issues, as people with nothing to look forward to but worse and worse outcomes are more likely to commit crimes or stoke revolutions than their upbeat, optimistic, comfortable kin.The combination of these two elements is more dastardly than just the sum of their two values implies, though, as measures that government agencies might take to curb inflation, like raising interest rates and overall tightening monetary policy, reduces business investment which can lead to unemployment. On the flip-side, though, things a government might do to reduce unemployment, like injecting more money into the economy, tends to spike inflation.It's a lose-lose situation, basically, and that's why government agencies tasked with keeping things moving along steadily go far out of their way to avoid stagflation; it's not easily addressed, and it only really goes away with time, and sometimes a very long time.There are two primary variables that have historically led to stagflation: supply shocks and government policies that reduce output and increase the money supply too rapidly.The stagflation many countries experienced in the 1970s was the result of Middle Eastern oil producing nations cutting off the flow of oil to countries that supported Israel during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, though a sharp increase in money supply and the end of the Bretton Woods money management system, which caused exchange rate issues between global currencies, also contributed, and perhaps even more so than the oil shock.What I'd like to talk about today is another major variable, the implementation of a huge package of new tariffs on pretty much everyone by the US, that many economists are saying could lead to a new period of stagflation, alongside other, more immediate consequences.—A tariff is a type of tax that's imposed on imported goods, usually targeting specific types of goods, or goods from a particular place.Way back in the day these were an important means of funding governments: the US government actually made most of its revenue, about 90% of it, from tariffs before 1863, because there just wasn't a whole of lot other ways for the young country to make money at the time.Following the War of 1812, the US government attempted to double tariffs, but that depleted international trade, which led to less income, not more—gross imports dropped by 71%, and the government scrambled to implement direct and excise taxes, the former of which is the tax a person or business pays that isn't based on transactions, while the latter is a duty that's paid upon the manufacture of something, as opposed to when it's sold.Tariffs resurfaced in the following decades, but accounted for less and less of the government's income as the country's manufacturing base increased, and excise and income taxes made up 63% of the US's federal revenue by 1865.Tax sources have changes a lot over the years, and they vary somewhat from country to country.But the dominant move in the 20th century, especially post-WWII, has been toward free trade, which usually means no or low tariffs on goods being made in one place and sold in another, in part because this tends to lead to more wealth for everyone, on average, at least.This refocus toward globalized free trade resulted in a lot of positives, like being able to specialize and make things where they're cheap and sell them where they're precious, but also some negatives, like the offshoring of jobs—though even those negatives, which sucked for the people who lost their jobs, have been positive for some, as the companies who offshored the jobs did so because it saved them money, the folks who were hired were generally paid more than was possible in their region, previously, and the people consuming the resulting goods were able to get them cheaper than would otherwise be feasible.It's been a mixed bag, then, but the general consensus among economists is that open trade is good because it incentivizes competition and productivity. Governments are less likely to implement protectionist policies to preserve badly performing local business entities from better performing foreign versions of the same, and that means less wasted effort and resources, more options for everyone, and more efficient overall economic operation, which contributes to global flourishing. And not for nothing, nations that trade with each other tend to be less likely to go to war with each other.Now that's a massively simplified version of the argument, but again, that's been the outline for how things are meant to work, and aside from some obvious exceptions—like China's protection of its local tech sector from foreign competition, and the US's protection of its aviation and car industries—it's generally worked as intended, and the world has become massively wealthier during this period compared to before this state of affairs was broadly implemented, post-WWII; there's simply no comparison, the difference is stark.There are renewed concerns about stagflation in the United States, however, because of a big announcement made by US President Trump on April 2, 2025, that slapped substantial and at times simply massive new tariffs on just about everyone, including the country's longest-term allies and most valuable trading partners.On what the president called “Liberation Day,” he announced two new types of tariff: one is a universal 10% import duty on all goods brought into the US, and another that he called a reciprocal tariff on imports from scores of countries, including 15 that will be hit especially hard—a list that includes China, EU nations, Canada, and Japan, among others.The theory of these so-called reciprocal tariffs is that Trump thinks the US is being taken advantage of, as, to use one example that he cited, the US charges a 2.5% tariff on imported cars, while the EU charges a 10% tariff on American cars imported to their union.The primary criticism of this approach, which has been cited by most economists and entities like the World Trade Organization, is that the numbers the US administration apparently used to make this list don't really add up, and seem to include some made-up measures of trade deficits, which some analysts suspect were calculated by AI tools like ChatGPT, as the same incorrect measures are spat out by commonly use chatbots like ChatGPT when they're asked about how to balance these sorts of things. But the important takeaway, however they arrived at these numbers, is that the comparisons used aren't really sensical when you look at the details.Some countries simply can't afford American exports, for instance, while others have no use for them. The idea that a country that can't afford American goods should have astoundingly large tariffs applied to their exports to the US is questionable from the get-go, but it also means the goods they produce, which might be valuable and important for Americans, be they raw materials like food or manufactured goods like car parts, will become more expensive for Americans, either because those Americans have to pay a higher price necessitated by the tax, or because the lower-price supplier is forced out of the market and replaced by a higher-price alternative.In short, the implied balance of these tariffs don't line up with reality, according to essentially everyone except folks working within Trump's administration, and the question then is what the actual motivation behind them might be.The Occam's Razor answer is that Trump and/or people in his administration simply don't understand tariffs and global economics well enough to understand that their theory on the matter is wrong. And many foreign leaders have said these tariffs are not in any way reciprocal, and that the calculation used to draw them up was, in the words of Germany's economic minister, “nonsense.” That's the general consensus of learned people, and the only folks who seem to be saying otherwise are the one's responsible for drawing these tariffs up, and defending them in the press.Things have been pretty stellar for most of the global economy since free trade became the go-to setup for imports and exports, but this administration is acting as if the opposite is true. That might be a feigned misunderstanding, or it might be genuine; they might truly not understand the difference between how things have been post-WWII and how they were back in the 1800s when tariffs were the go-to method of earning government revenue.But in either case, Trump is promising that rewiring the global order, the nature of default international trade in this way, will be good for Americans because rather than serving as a linchpin for that global setup, keeping things orderly by serving as the biggest market in the world, the American economy will be a behemoth that gets what it's owed, even if at the expense of others—a winner among losers who keep playing because they can't afford not to, rather than a possibly slightly less winning winner amongst other winners.This theory seems to have stemmed from a 1980s understanding of things, which is a cultural and economic milieu from which a lot of Trump's views and ideas seem to have originated, despite in many cases having long since been disproved or shown to be incomplete. But it's also a premise that may be more appealing to very wealthy people, because a lot of the negative consequences from these tariffs will be experienced by people in lower economic classes and people from poorer nations, where the price hikes will be excruciating, and folks in the middle class, whose wealth is primarily kept in stocks. Folks in the higher economic echolons, including those making most of these decisions, tend to make and build their wealth via other means, which won't be entirely unimpacted, but will certainly be less hurt by these moves than everyone else.It's also possible, and this seems more likely to me, but it's of course impossible to know the truth of the matter right now, that Trump is implementing a huge version of his go-to negotiating tactic of basically hurting the folks on the other end of a negotiation in order to establish leverage over them, and then starting that negotiation by asking what they'll do for him if he limits or stops the pain.The US is expected to suffer greatly from these tariffs, but other countries, especially those that rely heavily on the US market as their consumer base, and in some cases for a huge chunk of their economy, their total GDP, will suffer even more.There's a good chance many countries, in public or behind closed doors, will look at the numbers and decide that it makes more sense to give Trump and his administration something big, up front, in exchange for a lessening of these tariffs. That's what seems to be happening with Vietnam, already, and Israel, and there's a good chance other nations have already put out feelers to see what he might want in exchange for some preferential treatment in this regard—early reports suggest at least 50 governments have done exactly that since the announcement, though those reports are coming from within the White House, so it's probably prudent to take them with a grain of salt, at this point. That said, this sort of messaging from the White House suggests that the administration might be hoping for a bunch of US-favoring deals and will therefore make a lot of noise about initial negotiations to signal that that's what they want, and that the pain can go away if everyone just kowtows a little and gestures at some new trade policies that favor the US and make Trump look like a master negotiator who's bringing the world to heel.There's been pushback against this potentiality, however, led by China, which has led with its own, very large counter-tariffs rather than negotiating, and the EU looks like it might do the same. If enough governments do this, it could call Trump's bluff while also making these other entities, perhaps especially China, which was first out the door with counter-tariffs and statements about not be cowed by the US's bluster, seem like the natural successors to the US in terms of global economic leadership. It could result in the US giving away all that soft power, basically, and that in turn could realign global trade relationships and ultimately other sorts of relationships, too, in China's favor.One other commonly cited possibility, and this is maybe the grimmest of the three, but it's not impossible, is that Trump and other people in his administration recognize that the world is changing, that China is ascendent and the US is by some metrics not competing in the way it needs to in order to keep up and retain its dominance, and that's true in terms of things like manufacturing and research, but also the potential implications of AI, changing battlefield tactics, and so on. And from that perspective, it maybe makes sense to just shake the game board, knocking over all the pieces rather than trying to win by adhering to what have become common conventions and normal rules of play.If everyone takes a hit, if there's a global recession or depression and everything is knocked asunder because those variables that led to where we are today, with all their associated pros and cons, are suddenly gone, that might lead to a situation in which the US is hurt, but not as badly as everyone else, including entities like China. And because the US did the game board shaking, the US may thus be in a better position as everything settles back into a new state of affairs; a new state of affairs that Trump and his people want to be more favorable to the US, long-term.There's some logic to this thinking, even if it's a very grim, me-first, zero-sum kind of logic. The US economy is less reliant on global trade than the rest of the G20, the wealthiest countries in the world; only about 25% of its GDP is derived from trade, while that number is 37% for China, 63% for France, and a whopping 88% for Germany.Other nations are in a relatively more vulnerable position than the US in a less-open, more tariff-heavy world, then, and that means the US administration may have them over a barrel, making the aforementioned US-favoring negotiations more likely, but also, again, potentially just hurting everyone, but the US less so. And when I say hurting, I mean some countries losing a huge chunk of their economy overnight, triggering a lot more poverty, maybe stagflation and famines, and possibly even revolutions, as people worldwide experience a shocking and sudden decrease in both wealth and future economic outlook.Already, just days after Trump announced his tariffs, global markets are crashing, with US markets on track to record its second-worst three-day decline in history, after only the crash of 1987—so that's worse than even the crashes that followed 9/11, the Covid-19 pandemic, the debt crisis, and many others.Foreign markets are doing even worse, though, with Hong Kong's recently high-flying Hang Seng falling 13% in trading early this week, and Japan's Nikkei dropping 8%.Other market markers are also dropping, the price of oil falling to a pandemic-era level of $60 per barrel, Bitcoin losing 10% in a day, and even the US dollar, which theoretically should rise in a tariff scenario, dropping 0.1%—which suggests investors are planning for a damaging recession, and the US market and currency as a whole might be toxic for a while; which could, in turn, lead to a boom for the rest of the world, the US missing out on that boom.There are also simpler theories, I should mention, that tariffs may be meant to generate more profits to help pay for Trump's expanded tax cuts without requiring he touch the third-rails of Medicare or Social Security, or that they're meant to address the US's booming debt by causing investors to flee to Treasury bills, which has the knock-on effect of reducing the interest rates that have to be paid on government debt.That flight toward Treasuries is already happening, though it seems to be primarily because investors are fleeing the market as stocks collapse in value and everyone's worrying about their future, about stagflation, and about mass layoffs and unemployment.It may be that all or most of these things are true, too, by the way, and that this jumble of events, pros and cons alike, are seen as a net-positive by this administration.For what it's worth, too, the US Presidency doesn't typically get to set things like tariffs—that's congress' responsibility and right. But because Congress is currently controlled by Republicans, they've yet to push back on these tariffs with a veto, and they may not. There are rumblings within the president's party about this, and a lot of statements about how it'll ultimately be good, but that maybe they would have done things differently, but there hasn't been any real action yet, just hedging. And that could remain the case, but if things get bad enough, they could be forced by their constituents to take concrete action on the matter before Trump's promised, theoretical positive outcomes have the chance to emerge, or not.Show Noteshttps://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20060925_RL33665_4a8c6781ce519caa3e6b82f95c269f73021c5fdf.pdfhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariffhttps://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/03/31/tariffs-affect-consumer-spending/https://www.wsj.com/tech/exempt-or-not-the-chip-industry-wont-escape-tariffs-a6c771dbhttps://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/goldman-sachs-lifts-u-s-recession-probability-to-35-ce285ebchttps://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-am-9d85eb00-1184-11f0-8b11-0da1ebc288e3.htmlhttps://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-democrats-economy-protests-financial-markets-90afa4079acbde1deb223adf070c1e98https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trade-war-explodes-across-world-at-pace-not-seen-in-decades-0b6d6513https://www.mufgamericas.com/sites/default/files/document/2025-04/The-Long-Shadow-of-William-McKinley.pdfhttps://x.com/krishnanrohit/status/1907587352157106292https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/04/business/trump-stocks-tariffs-trade.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/05/opinion/trump-tariffs-theories.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/world/asia/vietnam-trump-tariff-delay.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/world/europe/trade-trump-tariffs-brexit.htmlhttps://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/04/why-do-domestic-prices-rise-with-tarriffs.htmlhttps://www.foxnews.com/politics/how-we-got-liberation-day-look-trumps-past-comments-tariffshttps://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/trumps-tariff-strategy-can-be-traced-back-to-the-1980s/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/12/us/politics/trump-tv-stock-market.htmlhttps://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdfhttps://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/over-50-countries-push-for-tariff-revisions-will-donald-trump-compromise-heres-what-the-white-house-said/articleshow/120043664.cmshttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/business/stock-market-plunge-investment-bank-impact.htmlhttps://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-trump-tariffs-trade-war-04-07-25https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-trump-tariff-foreign-policy-6934e493https://www.wsj.com/economy/in-matter-of-days-outlook-shifts-from-solid-growth-to-recession-risk-027eb2b4https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Asia-Pacific-stocks-sink-from-Trump-s-tariff-barrage-Hong-Kong-down-13https://www.reuters.com/markets/eu-seeks-unity-first-strike-back-trump-tariffs-2025-04-06/https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/04/07/trump-presidency-news-tariffs/https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/07/world/asia/china-trade-war-tariffs.htmlhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-04-07/global-rout-carries-whiff-of-panic-as-trump-holds-fast-on-tariffshttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflationhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/economists-fed-recent-projections-signal-120900777.htmlhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisishttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_stagnation This is a public episode. 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This week we talk about tariffs, consumer confidence, and trade wars.We also discuss inflation, GDP, and uncertainty.Recommended Book: A Brief History of Intelligence by Max S. BennettTranscriptOn January 20, 2025, mere hours after being sworn into his second term in office as President of the United States, Donald Trump announced new 25% tariffs on most incoming goods from Canada and Mexico, accusing the two allies of failing to halt the flow of drugs and illegal migrants into the US. These tariffs would go into effect on February 1, he said, and they would be in addition to existing tariffs that were already in effect for specific import categories.On that same day, he also speculated that he might impose a universal tariff on all imports, saying that he believed all countries, allies or not, were taking advantage of the US, and he didn't like that.Less than a week later, Trump announced that he would impose 25% tariffs on all good from Colombia, with immediate effect, and would double that tariff to 50% within a week. This appears to have been a punishment for the Colombian government's decision to turn back planes full of immigrants the US government deported and sent their way, without approval from the intended recipient of those deported people, the Colombian government. There was a minor tiff between these governments, but the White House declared victory on the matter later that night, saying the tariffs would be held in reserve, implying they could come back at any time if their demands are not met.An executive order implementing the threatened 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico was signed on February 1, and a new 10% tariff on China went into effect the same day. Countermeasures were threatened by everyone involved, and after Trump published a social media post saying there would probably be economic pain for a while, his government agreed to a 30 day pause on tariffs for Mexico and Canada, while also threatening new tariffs against the European Union; another long-time US ally.The new 10% tariff on Chinese imports went into effect on February 4, and China retaliated with its own counter-tariffs on US goods, including things like farm machinery and energy products. It also implemented new restrictions on the export of rare earth minerals to the US—a category of raw materials everyone is scrambling to secure, as they're vital for the production of batteries and other fundamental technologies—and they launched a new antimonopoly investigation into Google, which deals with some Chinese companies.On February 10, Trump reimposed a 25% tariff on all foreign steel and aluminum; a move that made US metal companies happy, but essentially all other US companies very unhappy, and in mid-February he threatened even more, broad, and vague tariffs on basically everyone, saying he's doing what he's doing in order to force companies to move manufacturing infrastructure back to the US, after decades of offshoring everything.At the end of February, Trump said the delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico would go into effect, as planned, on March 4, alongside those new 10% tariffs on China. On that day, Canada implemented its own counter-tariffs on the US to the tune of 25% on about $155 billion of US goods imported by the country.Canada and Mexico send about 80% of their exports to the US market, so their economies are expected to be hit hard by this trade war. China, in contrast, only sends about 15% of its exports to the US, so the impact will be more tempered.These three countries, though, are the US's largest trading partners, collectively accounting for over 40% of US imports and exports. In addition to buying a lot of US goods, they also export the majority of things like oil, beer, copper wire, chocolate, and other goods that the US consumes; and the cost of tariffs are almost always passed on to the end-consumer, so higher tariffs on these sorts of goods mean raised prices on a lot of stuff across the economy.On March 6, after a lot of back-and-forth with US automakers and with the Mexican and Canadian governments, a lot of the tariffs placed on goods from these countries were suspended, the US government denying that their withdrawal had anything to do with the US market, which was suffering in response to this wave of economic disruptions—though many tariffs were kept in place, and Trump said the US would still impose tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports beginning on March 12.On the 12th, the EU and Canada announced a new wave of retaliatory tariffs against the US, though the European side said they would hold off on their implementation of these tariffs, waiting till April 1 to see what happens. The next day, Trump threatened a 200% charge on alcoholic products from the EU in response to their planned 50% tariffs on US whiskey and other products within their borders.At the moment, as of mid-March 2025, a lot of these tariffs are still speculative, as it's generally understood, from Trump's bombastic approach to deal-making and his previous backtracking from these sorts of threats, that many of these tariffs could disappear, announced solely to provide leverage against those Trump wants to squeeze for more concessions and what he considers to be more favorable trade terms. Some of them could become concrete reality, though, and part of the issue here is that it's nearly impossible to know which is which, because there also seems to be a larger effort to rewire the US and global economies by this administration—and that effort, plus the uncertainty caused by tariffs and similar actions, are leading to some pretty severe market upsets within the US, and resultantly around the world, as well.And that's what I'd like to talk about today: the impacts of these tariffs and other actions by this administration, so far, and what might happen next, based on currently available numbers and analysis.—Economies are ridiculously complex systems, and it's impossible to say with 100% certainty what caused what, and to what degree things would be different had some other path been taken by those in control of various regulatory and economic levers.That said, the nonpartisan Tax Foundation has estimated that just those first batch of proposed tariffs by the US government, not including impacts from foreign retaliations, which could be substantial, will reduce US GDP by about 0.4% and reduce total hours worked by the equivalent of 309,000 full-time jobs; so a lot less output, and a lot less overall productivity.That's on top of the estimated 0.2% long-term decrease in US GDP caused by the first Trump administration's tariffs, which were maintained by the subsequent Biden administration.These existing tariffs raised prices in the US and reduced both output and employment, which means the boom the US economy saw under the Biden administration might have been even boomier, had those tariffs been dropped. But now they're more or less locked in, and these new tariffs will probably amplify their effect, near-term and long-term.On top of that, the constant threats and pullbacks and seemingly off-the-cuff decisions to implement what amounts to all sorts of huge-scale taxes on a frenetic array of goods, including luxuries, but also some very fundamental things, like the metals we use to build and manufacture basically everything, is stoking uncertainty throughout the US and global economies.That uncertainty has wide-ranging impacts, but one of the most direct consequences is that consumer sentiment in the US has nose-dived, as ordinary people worry about the combined impacts of tariffs, cuts to government programs, layoffs across government agencies, and new restrictions on immigration, which even ignoring the human element of such things can cause all sorts of issues across industries that rely on immigrant workers to stay afloat.In mid-March of this year, US consumer sentiment hit 57.9, down from 64.7 in February. That's the lowest its been since November of 2022, it's down 27% from a year earlier, and it's a lot lower than economist predictions for this month, which were set at 63.2.Consumer sentiment tells us how people are feeling about the economy, about their potential to earn, and about where things are going. This influences how people spend, how they consume, and that in turn helps determine how the overall economy will go in the coming years, as people will be more likely to hunker down and save, taking as few risks as possible and making fewer purchases if they believe things will be rough; which in some cases can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, because those behaviors tend to shrink the economy, which leads to less output, fewer investments being made, more layoffs, and so on. That means a drop in consumer sentiment can make things bad even if they would otherwise be good, but if they're bad already, they can become even worse because folks stop doing things that would improve the economy, out of self-preservation.And that impact can be just as pronounced when things are weird and wobbly, rather than outright bad, as seems to be the case in the US at the moment.There's no firm evidence that the US economy is destined for a recession at this point, but the Russell 2000 index, which is made up of smaller companies than indexes like the S&P 500, and which is thus more prone to on-the-ground variables than its larger index kin, has dropped more than 16% since November, when it hit a new high on optimism about what the new Trump administration might do for businesses and the economy.The S&P 500 also collapsed, though about half as much, and it rallied somewhat last week as investors bought the dip, scooping up stocks at lower prices following that drop. But there's a lot of speculation that this might be a so-called dead cat bounce recovery—a moment in which a market seems to be recovering from a drop, but where it's actually just bouncing up a little before heading back downward—and even this index, which is packed with corporations that are less susceptible to brief market wobbles than those in the Russell, might be heading for another downswing in the coming weeks, based on a lot of the economic numbers used to predict such things, at the moment.One such metric is interest in alternative assets like gold, and the price of gold hit a new high last Friday, surpassing $3,000 per ounce for the first time ever.That's not something you tend to see when markets are healthy and people expect them to do well; if they are healthy and expected to surge rather than collapse, people tend to put their money in the market, not in shiny metals. But the shiny metals bet seems to be appealing right now, which hints at an even broader suspicion of the US economy than even that consumer sentiment and those bad market figures anticipate.And the market figures have been bad. In just 3 weeks, beginning on February 19, the S&P alone lost more than $5 trillion in value.The Atlanta Fed, which uses a fairly reliable model to predict future US GDP numbers, was predicting a healthy nearly 4% increase for the US's GDP for the first quarter of 2025 back in late-January, early-February, but that prediction plummeted from positive 4% to negative 2.4% by early March.That figure could still change, as it's informed by data that don't all arrive at the same time, but it's still a staggering drop, and it reflects the impact of all these tariffs, but also all the destruction of government programs and agencies, the mass firings, and of course the uncertainty caused by all of these things in aggregate, alongside the impacts of said uncertainty on everyone at all scales, from trade partners to US-based small businesses to individual consumers.So few people and institutions are happy about what's happening right now, but it does look like, in the immediate future, at least, there are some beneficiaries of all this tumult.Markets in China are flourishing, especially Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, which is up more than 20% since Trump's inauguration on January 20. And Europe's market, which has struggled with stasis for years now, is up more than 4% over that same period.Uncertainty about markets, but also military alliances, especially NATO, have pushed Germany—which has struggled since Russia invaded Ukraine, when their energy markets were utterly scrambled, which in turn hobbled their massive manufacturing base—Germany has unleashed a huge amount of government funds on their economy, and that big uptick in spending has helped basically the whole EU market grow. The German government has traditionally been tight-pocketed, but a declaration by the incoming Chancellor that they would do whatever it takes to both defend themselves and boost their economic outlook in the face of unreliable backing from their long-time ally, the US, has bolstered enthusiasm and optimism throughout the region, bringing EU nations closer together, increasing spending on all sorts of fundamentals, and bringing them closer to the Canadian government, as well.The Chinese government has recently indicated they'll be injecting a bunch of money and other types of support in their economy, as well, which creates a stark contrast with the US government, which seems to be refocusing on pulling government resources from across society and the economy, and spending mostly on tax cuts for the wealthiest people and biggest companies, instead.The US government's efforts to go America first, and not do anyone, even its longest-term, most reliable allies, any favors, or even trade in what might be considered a balanced way, thus seems to be scrambling US markets while simultaneously stoking those that are being cut off, unifying aspects of the rest of the world in antagonism against the US, while also providing them with incentive to reinvest in their own markets; which could be good for them long-term, making them less reliant on the US in all sorts of ways, but which seems pretty bad for the US in particular, short-term, and casts the US-dominated global order into disarray for the immediate future, with all sorts of consequences, economic and otherwise.The degree to which this impacts Trump's approval ratings has yet to be seen, as while his approval is collapsing, especially on the economy, right now, a lot of the most serious economic impacts are expected to fall hard on regions that most enthusiastically voted for him, and Republican talking points have already pivoted toward messaging that implies suffering for a while is good and patriotic.That message might succeed and keep people on side even as their investments collapse and tariff-driven inflation hits their bottom-lines, or it might not. But it seems like the administration is ramping up for a version of austerity that doesn't actually reduce the deficit, but instead takes a bunch of money from programs and investments that helped these areas, and moves it to other stuff that mostly helps fund tax cuts for wealthy allies of the administration—and that could come back to bite them, come election season.All of this is also happening in parallel to the many political maneuverings of the administration and its opposition, though, and just recently the Republican-held congress was able to pass a funding bill, moving a lot more authority and control to the White House; so whatever the short-term approval numbers show, none of this seems to be having much of a negative impact on Trump's control of government. That could change, though, over the course of the next year, leading into 2026's midterm election, when the makeup of congress could be influenced by these and similar decisions.Show Noteshttps://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-rise-after-volatile-week-consumer-data-tap-2025-03-14/https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/consumer-confidence-march-2025-drops-trump-trade-e7e0964dhttps://www.axios.com/2025/03/15/economic-indicators-recession-riskhttps://www.cnn.com/2025/03/14/investing/gold-price-today-3000-ounce-intl/index.htmlhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/14/us-stock-market-loses-5-trillion-in-value-in-three-weeks.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/business/russell-2000-bear-market.htmlhttps://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/us/politics/stock-market-correction-trump-tariffs.htmlhttps://www.nfib.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/NFIB-SBET-Report-Feb.-2025.pdfhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/your-money/car-shopping-trump-tariffs-cfpb.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/16/business/trump-sp-500-stocks-europe-china.htmlhttps://archive.ph/GNPRfhttps://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/issues/economyhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/15/business/economy/tariffs-trump-maps-voters.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/15/us/politics/trump-spending-bill-government-shutdown.htmlhttps://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/investing-stocks-risk-strategies-trump-policies-c4a5d3d9https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/trump-trade-tariffs-us-dollar-value-814cbe37https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-nasdaq-sp500-03-17-2025https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/16/wall-street-hoped-scott-bessent-would-keep-trump-in-check-he-had-other-ideas-00231771https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-mergers-acquisitions-ipos-hiring-slumps-trump-tariffs-2025-3https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/14/trump-trade-wars-consumer-sentiment-00230833https://archive.ph/fUKPshttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/13/business/economy/trump-tariff-timeline.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/business/energy-environment/trump-energy-oil-gas.htmlhttps://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/ This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit letsknowthings.substack.com/subscribe