Podcasts about hang seng

Die Babos sprachen heute „Börse“ – und das knapp eine Stunde lang. Daran merkt man, dass es heute viele Themen zu besprechen gab. An den Börsen geht es aktuell etwas volatiler zu – kein Wunder nach sechs positiven Monaten im Nasdaq und vielen neuen Höchstständen. Und genau in solchen Zeiten wird pauschal über „Blasen“ und „Crashes“ gesprochen. Heute ordnen die Investmentbabos Michael und Endrit ein, wie eine Blase entsteht und ob wir uns aktuell in einer solchen befinden. Darüber hinaus werden die Nachrichten aus China über eine weiterhin schrumpfende Wirtschaft – insbesondere im verarbeitenden Gewerbe – thematisiert. Ebenso besprechen sie, weshalb der Hang Seng trotzdem so gut läuft und wie es in Deutschland angesichts der BIP-Stagnation aussieht. Nicht zuletzt geht es auch um den neu gewählten Bürgermeister in New York, einst die Hauptstadt des Kapitalismus. Viele Themen – und natürlich auch viele Insights und Insiders. Daher lohnt es sich, die Stunde zu investieren. Happy Weekend! Liebe Grüße Michael Duarte & Endrit Cela - Besuchen Sie uns auf unserer Website: https://www.investmentbabo.com - Liken Sie uns auf Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Investmentbabo - Folgen Sie uns auf Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/investmentbabo - Folgen Sie uns auf Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/investmentbabo DISCLAIMER: Der Inhalt dieses Podcasts dient ausschließlich der allgemeinen Information. Diese Informationen können und sollen eine individuelle Beratung durch hierfür qualifizierte Personen nicht ersetzen. Die Informationen in Bezug auf die von der Clartan Associés und AMF Capital AG verwalteten Sondervermögen stellen keine Anlageberatung und keine Kaufempfehlung dar.

In the US, Wall St kicked off November with a mixed session overnight. The Dow Jones closed down 0.48%, the S&P advanced a little over 0.1%, while the tech heavy Nasdaq added 0.46%, spurred on by gains in the AI sector. The biggest news was the announcement of a major $38 billion deal between OpenAI and Amazon, which lead to Amazon shares jumping a further 4%. Europe too saw a mixed session – the Stoxx600 closed nearly flat as declines of 0.16% in the UK's FTSE and 0.14% in the French CAC offset a 0.73% jump in Germany's DAX. Meanwhile, Asian markets closed green across the board, lead by gains of 0.97%, 0.27%, and 2.12% in Hong Kong's Hang Seng, China's CSI and Japan's Nikkei. Locally yesterday, despite opening down and falling as low as 0.4%, the ASX200 closed out the day up 0.15%, driven primarily by gains across the banks. Westpac (ASX:WBC) saw the biggest gain, adding 2.8%, while CommBank (ASX:CBA), NAB (ASX:NAB), and ANZ (ASX:ANZ) all advanced 2.3%, 0.9% and 0.9% respectively. On the losing end, healthcare continued its run of poor performance, with major names ResMed (ASX:RMD) dropping 4.3%, and CSL (ASX:CSL) continuing its freefall with another 1.7% drop. What to watch today:Looking ahead to today, the SPI futures are predicting the ASX will open down for a second straight day, indicating a 0.1% drop at the open. In commodities, Gold, Crude Oil and Iron ore are all trading flat today with no changes in their prices. Gold remains at $4003 USD per ounce, Crude Oil at 61 USD per barrel, and Iron Ore at 105 USD per tonne. Trading ideas:Bell Potter has maintained its current Buy rating on defence name DroneShield (ASX:DRO) with its current 12 month price target at $5.30 per share, after they announced a new $25.3 million contract in Latin America with delivery and payment through the next 2 quarters. And Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in Woodside Energy Group (ASX:WDS), indicating that the price may rise from the close of $25.12 to the range of $27 - $27.40 over a period of 33 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis. 

Wall Street closed higher on Tuesday as investors bought back into the AI thematic ahead of the Fed's anticipated rate cut announcement at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting this week. The major averages reset record highs again on Tuesday with the Dow jones rose 0.34%, while the S&P500 gained 0.23% and the Nasdaq ended the day up 0.8%.In Europe overnight markets closed mixed as the UK's FTSE100 hit a fresh record high closing up 0.44% while the STOXX 600 fell 0.22%, Germany's DAX lost 0.12% and the French CAC ended the day down 0.27%.Across the Asia region on Tuesday, markets closed mostly lower as investors digested a new rare earths deal signed by U.S. President Donald Trump and Japan's new Prime Minister Senae Takaichi. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.58%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.33%, China's CSI index fell 0.51% and South Korea's Kospi index retreated 0.8% on Tuesday.Locally on Tuesday, the ASX200 posted a 0.48% loss despite records set on Wall St on Monday and prospects of a trade deal between the US and China nearing fruition. The local market sell-off was due to heavy weights tumbling like WiseTech Global which plunged over 15.5% and CSL which also ended the day down over 15.5%.WiseTech Global (ASX:WTC) had investors fleeing yesterday after reports surfaced that the Australian Federal Police and ASIC allegedly raided the offices of the company in search of information related to share sales by the company's founder and several colleagues.CSL (ASX:CSL) tanked after downgrading guidance amid softer demand for influenza vaccines in the US and the company also announced it is delaying the demerger of Seqirus, its vaccine division, until market conditions improve.Investors also sold out of Liontown yesterday after the lithium miner released a quarterly update outlining a small increase in production but a sharp decline in sales and higher costs during the period.What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 2.25% lower at US$59.93/barrel, gold is down 0.65% at US$3955.58/ounce and iron ore is down 0.01% at US$105.56/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.89 US cents, 100.09 Japanese yen, 49.02 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 14 cents.Ahead of the midweek trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.17%.Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR) from $1.15 to $1.30 per share and maintain a buy rating on the lithium producer following the release of the company's Q1 trading update including lithium concentrate production and sales that topped Bell Potter's expectations while revenue fell slightly short due to weaker realised prices and a delayed shipment.And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Universal Stores (ASX:UNI) following the formation of a pattern over the period of 259 days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $9.10 to the range of $11.80 to $12.50 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed in record territory on Friday after cooler-than-expected inflation data in the U.S. boosted investor optimism that the Fed can continue on its rate cutting journey. The Dow Jones rose 1.01% to close at a record over 47,000 for the first time, while the S&P500 added 0.8% also at a fresh record and the Nasdaq rounded out the trifecta of records closing the day up 1.15%. September CPI in the U.S. came in at a rise of 0.3% taking annual inflation to 3%, below the 0.4% and 3.1% readings economists were expecting.In Europe on Friday markets closed higher as U.S. inflation came in lower than expected. The STOXX 600 rose 0.2%, Germany's DAX added 0.13%, the French CAC closed flat, and in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.7%.Across the Asia region on Friday, markets closed higher as reports surfaced that trade negotiations between the U.S. and China will resume this week. Japan's Nikkei rose 1.35%, South Korea's Kospi Index added 0.11%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.74%.The ASX200 posted a 0.15% loss on Friday as President Trump ended trade talks with Canada and negotiations with China failed to progress on Friday especially over rare earth supplies, causing investors to remain concerned over the instability of the global trade landscape.Mount Gibson Iron tanked over 25% on Friday after the Australian iron ore producer announced a significant rockfall event at the company's Koolan Island operations has forced the halt of production at the operation of the 80-year-old mine. What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.5% lower at US$61.50/barrel, gold is down 0.34% at US$4111.89/ounce and iron ore is flat at US$105.55/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.47 US cents, 100.02 Japanese yen, 48.84 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 14 cents.Ahead of Monday's trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.3%.Trading ideas:Bell Potter has initiated coverage of Elsight (ASX:ELS) with a buy rating and a 12-month price target of $1.90 on the tech company that specialises in creating secure, continuous, and reliable communication solutions for unmanned systems like drones and robotics. Elsight is a buy  from Bell Potter's analyst because it provides a mission-critical communication platform for unmanned systems, positioning it as a pure-play enabler of the rapidly expanding global drone and defence markets. With strong validation from repeat OEM orders, accelerating sales investment, and a scalable, recurring-revenue model, ELS offers compelling growth and valuation upside.Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on New Hope Corporation (ASX:NHC) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 28-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $4.00 to the range of $4.80 to $4.95 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed lower on Wednesday as investors assessed further updates out of Washington signalling dwindling progress on the trade front between the U.S. and China. The Dow Jones lost 0.71%, the S&P500 declined 0.53% and the Nasdaq ended the day down 0.93%.In Europe overnight markets in the region closed mixed as investors assessed corporate earnings results out in the region. The STOXX 600 fell 0.2%, Germany's DAX lost 0.74%, the French CAC declined 0.63% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.93%.Asia markets traded mixed on Wednesday as investors assessed key trade data out of Japan alongside the country's new leadership transition. For September, Japanese exports increased 4.2% YoY to snap four months of declines, however, the data came in lower than economists were expecting of 4.6% growth. Japan's Nikkei closed flat on Wednesday while Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.94%, South Korea's Kospi Index rose over 1.5% and India's Nifty 50 ended the day up 0.1%.The local market closed the midweek session 0.71% lower as a materials sell-off of more than 3% weighed on gains among energy and tech stocks. The price of gold slumped over 6% overnight amid widespread profit taking and strength in the USD which spooked investors into panic sell mode out of gold miners on Wednesday. Genesis Minerals, Evolution Mining and Ramelius Resources each fell over 10% at the closing bell on Wednesday.Homewares retailer Adairs (ASX:ADH)  jumped 8.3% yesterday despite downgrading group sales forecast guidance for H1 to between $319.5m to $331.5m, down from the prior guidance of $324.5m to $336.5m, however margins were upgraded to the higher end of the forecast region at 59%-59.5%. Investors likely welcomed the pullback in promotional activity announced by the company amid moderated sales growth.And weaker-than-expected revenue and rising jet costs hit Air New Zealand (ASX:AIZ) yesterday with shares in the airline falling 1% after the company announced it expects to report a pre-tax loss between NZ$30m and NZ$55m for the first half. What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 4.25% higher at US$59.67/barrel, gold is down 0.52% at US$4103/ounce and iron ore is up 0.03% at US$105.53/tonne. The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 64.92 U.S. cents, 98.64 Japanese yen, 48.51 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 13 cents.Ahead of Thursday's trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.17%.Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Aeris Resources (ASX:AIS) from a buy to a hold and have raised the 12-month price target on the copper producer following the release of the company's September quarterly report including results meeting the analysts' expectations for lower 1HFY26 production. The reason for the downgrade is simply due to recent share price appreciation of the company.Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Viva Energy (ASX:VEA) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 22-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $1.74 to the range of $1.54 to $1.58 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

In the US overnight, Wall St closed trading mixed higher as investors responded to stronger-than-expected corporate earnings results out of key names like Coca-Cola and 3M. The Dow Jones is closed up 0.47%, the S&P500 is closed flat and the Nasdaq closed down 0.16%Across Europe overnight, markets closed higher led by strong gains for defence stocks in the region. The STOXX 600 rose 0.2%, Germany's DAX added 0.3%, the French CAC climbed 0.64% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.25%. The Asia markets closed mostly higher as Japan's first female Prime Minister was announced and investors continued to assess trade negotiations in the region. Japan's Nikkei rose 0.27%, South Korea's Kospi Index added 0.24%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.76% and China's CSI index ended the day up 1.53%. The local market extended its green run this week into Tuesday's session with the key index gaining 0.7% at the closing bell driven by the materials sector after Australia and the US agreed to invest a combined US$3bn in critical minerals projects, as part of Prime Minister Albanese's visit to the White House. Gold reset its record yesterday topping US$4381/ounce for the first time which propelled local gold miners higher, while rare earths producers were bought into on the back of the US-Australia critical minerals deal.HUB24 (ASX:HUB) surged over 10% yesterday after platform funds under administration rose 8% over the September quarter to $122bn, while DroneShield (ASX:DRO) also rose 8.7% as investors bought back into the counter-drone technology company. What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.7% higher at US$57.42/barrel, gold is down 5.56% at US$4116/ounce as the US dollar strengthened and profit-taking kicked in following the price of the precious commodity hitting a fresh record over US$4382/ounce on yesterday, and iron ore is up 0.14% at US$105.50/tonne. Ahead of the midweek trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.5%. Trading ideas:Bell Potter has maintained its buy rating on HUB24 (ASX:HUB) and increased its 12 month target price from $125 to $135 off the back of better than expected Q1 FY26 results and significant market momentum. And Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in Super Retail Group (ASX:SUL), indicating that the price may rise from the current close of $17 per share to the range of $17.80 to $18 per share over a period of 21 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

S&P futures are up +0.4% and pointing to a higher open. Asian equities began the week's trading on a high note, with Japan's Nikkei surging over +3% as political clarity boosted sentiment. Hong Kong's Hang Seng also gained +2.4%, led by sharp advances in big tech. European markets are also higher in early trade as gains are being supported by easing US-China tensions and strong momentum from Asian markets. However, the French CAC is lagging slightly, following S&P's decision to downgrade France's credit rating late last week. Companies Mentioned: Tesla, Hologic, The Cooper Cos, Boeing

Wall Street started the new trading week in positive territory as investors looked toward a potential end to the government shutdown now in its 3rd week, and as Apple shares boosted tech stocks following an upgrade to a buy rating from Loop Capital. The Dow Jones rose 1.12%, the S&P 500 also climbed 1.07% and the Nasdaq ended the day up 1.37%.In Europe overnight markets closed mostly higher as defence stocks drove gains in the region. The STOXX 600 gained 1%, Germany's DAX added 1.9%, the French CAC climbed 0.4% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.5%.Across the Asia markets on Monday, it was a positive session as key economic data out in the region boosted investor sentiment. Japan's Nikkei rose 3.37% to a fresh record high, while China's CSI index added 0.53%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 2.52% and South Korea's Kospi index ended the day up 1.76%.China's Q3 GDP data out yesterday weighed on investor sentiment with the reading coming in at expansion of 1.1% over the September quarter, which exceeded analysts' expectations of 0.8% expansion, and over the 12-months to September the Chinese economy expanded 4.8% which met forecasts, signalling a material rebound in economic recovery post pandemic is potentially finally underway.The local market started the new trading week lower early on Monday before turning positive to post a 0.4% rise at the closing bell led by a rally for financials and REIT stocks on Monday.Neuren (ASX:NEU) shares took off yesterday with a gain over 4% after the pharmaceutical company announced it has received US FDA Fast Track Designation for its drug candidate NNZ-2591 for the treatment of Phelan-McDermid syndrome. Currently, there are no FDA-approved treatments for Phelan-McDermid syndrome which places Neuren at the forefront of care for this condition when the drug reaches commercialisation.Vehicle parts provider Bapcor (ASX:BAP) tumbled over 17.5% on Monday after the company reported a profit downgrade and disclosed a $12m pre-tax earnings hit due to challenging operating practices in its trade division.Deep Yellow (ASX:DYL) also dived over 18% after the uranium company announced the immediate exit of its Chief Executive, John Borshoff, and will be replaced by the company's CFO, Craig Barnes as acting CEO until a permanent appointment is made. What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.3% lower at US$57.47/barrel, gold is back in record territory with another gain of 2.72% to trade at US$4365.85/ounce and iron ore is down 0.2% at 105.35/ounce.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.16 U.S. cents, 98.18 Japanese yen, 48.5 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 13 cents.Ahead of Tuesday's trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.5%. Trading ideas:Bell Potter has reduced the 12-month price target on Beach Energy (ASX:BPT) from $1.25 to $1.10 and maintain a hold rating on the energy exploration and development company. The price target was decreased despite strong quarterly results because the medium-term earnings outlook worsened, with the analyst reducing EPS forecasts in FY27 (-18%) and FY28 (-9%) due to factors like unsuccessful exploration (e.g., Hercules-1) and ongoing high capex. The Hold rating was maintained as near-term production is steady and cash flow is expected to improve, but the longer-term growth and returns remain uncertain.And Bell Potter has initiated coverage of Austco Healthcare (ASX:AHC) with a buy rating and a 12-month price target of 55cps. AHC manufactures sophisticated nurse call systems, enterprise reporting and analytics tools, for the purpose of improving patient outcomes and reducing cost for healthcare organisations. AHC is rated a Buy by Bell Potter's analyst due to its strong revenue and earnings growth, underpin

Wall St closed higher across the key indices on Friday as investor hopes of easing trading tensions between the U.S. and China rose a day after credit concerns sparked a sharp selloff for U.S. regional banks. The S&P500 rose 0.53% on Friday while the Nasdaq added 0.52% and the Dow Jones ended the day up 0.52%.Across Europe on Friday markets closed lower amid credit concerns of bad debts looming across regional banks in the U.S. The STOXX 600 fell 0.95%, Germany's DAX lost 1.82%, the French CAC fell 0.18% and, in the UK the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.86%.Over the Asia markets on Friday, it was a mostly positive session as trade talks with the U.S. continue to make progress toward a sustainable solution. South Korea's Kospi index rose to a record high for a third day, ending the session up 0.01% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 2.48% and India's Nifty 50 gained 0.48%.Locally on Friday the key index lost 0.81% to end a very volatile trading week triggered by increased trade war tensions between the US and China on Thursday, while the gold rally worked to offset some of the market losses.The price of gold hit yet another record high on Friday topping US$4350/ounce for the first time in history. This boosted local miners further into the green with Newmont (ASX:NEM) adding 3.32% while Northern Star (ASX:NST) gained 2.75% and Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN) ended the day up almost 2%.EROAD (ASX:ERD) tumbled over 33% on Friday after the company announced a restructure of plans to focus more on the ANZ market and step back from its North American expansion plans.Lynas (ASX:LYC) shares fell 5.7% on Friday amid increased investor concerns that easing tensions between China and the US over rare earth export controls could lead to a deal, potentially lowering rare earth prices and pressuring suppliers like Lynas. Comments from China's Ministry of Commerce suggesting openness to trade talks triggered the sell-off.What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.14% higher at US$57.54/barrel, gold is down 1.81% at US$4250/ounce and iron ore is down 0.2% at US$105.35/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 64.88 U.S. cents, 97.35 Japanese yen, 48.50 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 13 cents.Ahead of Monday's trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.08%.Trading ideas:Bell Potter has reduced the 12-month price target on Avita Medical (ASX:AVH) from $1.50 to $1.20 and maintain a sell rating on the therapeutic acute wound care company following the release of the company's September quarter update including revenues down 12% on the PCP and the departure of the company's CEO. The analyst sees in the absence of a bid for the company, which remains highly uncertain, we maintain our Sell rating. FY25 revenues have been exceptionally poor capped off by the 3Q25 decline.And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Suncorp Group (ASX:SUN) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 15-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $19.56 to the range of $18.50 to $18.80 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

S&P futures are up +0.5% and pointing to a higher open today. Asian markets posted solid gains on Wednesday, led by Japan's Nikkei and Hong Kong's Hang Seng, both up over +1.5% as tech shares rebounded. European markets are also moving higher in early trades. The French CAC is leading with a +1.5% advance as French PM Lecornu's willingness to suspend pension reform to secure political support provided some relief, though a vote of confidence is looming on Thursday. U.S.-China trade tensions continue to generate volatility, with President Trump indicating on Truth Social a potential halt to trade on cooking oil products, citing China's refusal to purchase U.S. soybeans. This follows recent threats to double tariffs in response to China's expanded rare earth restrictions, although Trump later reassured that resolution is possible. Companies Mentioned: Apple, Eli Lily, Papa John's

Wall Street edged higher on Wednesday as strong earnings results out of the Bank of America and Morgan Stanley boosted the major averages into the green at the closing bell. The Nasdaq added 0.6%, the S&P 500 gained 0.4%, and the Dow Jones ended the day flat. Cooking oil stocks surged in the U.S. on Wednesday after President Trump threatened to cut off U.S. purchases of Chinese cooking oil.In Europe overnight markets closed mixed as luxury brands across the region led markets gains. The STOXX 600 rose 0.7%, Germany's DAX fell 0.1% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.3%.Across the Asia region on Wednesday, it was a sea of green despite renewed trade threats between the world's two largest economies. Japan's Nikkei rose 1.76%, China's CSI index added 1.48%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 2.06% and India's Nifty 50 ended the day up 0.74%.Locally yesterday, the ASX200 posted a 1.03% rise on Wednesday as gains from the healthcare stocks, the major banks and gold miners boosted the key index to a positive finish.Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX:TLX) soared over 15% yesterday after the radiopharmaceutical company released a positive Q3 trading update including a 53% increase YoY in unaudited revenue to US$206m, the receipt of full reimbursement for its Gozellix Product from the US Centres for Medicare and Medicaid Services, and the company raised its full year revenue guidance range to US$800 to US$820m from US$770 to US$800m.And the competition watchdog launched a probe into the merger between Southern Cross Media and Seven West Media due to concerns it may reduce competition in an already consolidated market.What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.15% lower at US$58.50/barrel, gold is up a further 1.51% at a fresh record US$4205.90/ounce and iron ore is down 1.2% at US$105.25/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.08 US cents, 98.45 Japanese yen, 48.77 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 1 New Zealand dollar and 14 cents.Ahead of Thursday's trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down just 0.04%. Trading ideas:Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Jumbo Interactive (ASX:JIN)from $11.50 to $11.85 and maintain a hold rating on the digital lotteries business following the company's acquisition of Dream Car Giveaways for an enterprise value of $109.9m. The analyst sees the acquisition is another positive step in diversifying revenue and the hold rating is maintained due to risks in market share as new players enter the lotteries market and key competitors strengthen their offerings.And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Vicinity Centres (ASX:VCX) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 96-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $2.54 to the range of $2.74 to $2.78 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

The US saw a volatile trading session overnight ultimately end mixed across the 3 major benchmarks. The S&P500 closed down 0.2% and the Nasdaq closed down 0.8%, although they had fallen as low as 1.5 and 2.1% throughout the day. The Dow Jones despite opening down 1.3% rallied to close up 0.4% - the volatility comes amid continuing trade tensions between the US and China.  Europe too saw a mostly a negative session ovvernight. The STOXX 600 fell 0.4%, Germany's DAX lost 0.62%, the French CAC fell 0.18% and the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.1%. Across the Asia region on Tuesday, markets closed mostly lower as China's Ministry of Commerce sanctioned five US-related units of Hanwha Marine Corporation in direct retaliation to the US' investigation of Chinese maritime, logistics and shipbuilding industries in a step backward in the trade negotiations. Japan's Nikkei fell 2.58% on Tuesday, while China's CSI index lost 1.12%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.74% and India's Nifty 50 ended the day down 0.55%. The local market traded lower on Tuesday before closing the session up 0.2% as US-China trade negotiations showed signs of progression on Monday, Middle East tensions continued to ease, and the AI rally marched on in the US. NAB Business Confidence data for September came in at a rise to 7 index points for last month, up from 4 points in August, but short of the 9 points the market was expecting a rise to. The small rise though signals greater optimism from a business perspective in Australia following a mostly negative year on the sentiment front for businesses in FY25.Australian consumer confidence on the other hand weighed on the market gains yesterday as the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence survey unveiled sentiment weakened in October to a 1-year low.What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 1.22% lower at US$58.83/barrel, gold is up 0.43% at US$4145/ounce and iron ore is up 0.75% at US$106.53/tonne.Ahead of Wednesday's trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.83%.Trading Ideas:Bell Potter maintains its Buy rating on Uranium producer Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN) and has raised its target price from $10.30 to $11.35, off the back of record Q1 FY25 production as well as steady increases in the average realised Uranium price. And Trading Central have identified a bullish signal on CSL (ASX:CSL), indicating that the price may rise from the current close of $211 to the price range of $228-232 over a period of 37 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis. 

Wall Street started the new trading week with a strong rebound after President Trump said trade relations with China will be fine, a few days after threatening massive tariff increases on the region. Investor sentiment eased and stocks surged as a result of Trump's message to start the new trading week higher. The S&P 500 added 1.56% on Monday while the Nasdaq climbed 2.21% and the Dow Jones ended the day up 1.29%.In Europe on Monday markets closed higher led by a mining rally as investors keep an eye on trade negotiations between the US and China. The STOXX 600 rose 0.44%, Germany's DAX added 0.6%, the French CAC climbed 0.21% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.16%.Across the Asia region on Monday markets closed lower as investors pulled back amid trade tension uncertainty between the world's largest two regions. China's CSI index fell 0.5%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 2.04%, Japan's Nikkei lost 1.01% and South Korea's Kospi index ended the day down 0.72%.Locally to start the new trading week, investor sentiment was dented by Wall Street's Friday tumble and Trump's renewed tariff threats, which led to a broad sell-off on the ASX to start the new week with the key index ending the day down 0.94% in the worst session since mid-September.Gold scaled to a fresh record high again on Monday amid renewed macro and trade uncertainty which fuelled a buying frenzy among the gold miners on Monday with Northern Star (ASX:NST) and Ramelius Resources (ASX:RMS) rising over 1% each while Regis Resources (ASX:RRL) soared over 7%.Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) tumbled over 11% on Monday after the wine maker scrapped earnings guidance due to weaker-than-expected trading in China, with the company also halting its $200m share buyback which signals elevated trading uncertainty.Margin contraction hurt Fletcher Building (ASX:FBU) on Monday with shares in the company falling almost 2% after a trading update unveiled margin contraction in its heavy building materials volumes.What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 2.41% higher at US$59.64/barrel gold is up 2.3% at US$4105/ounce and iron ore is up 0.84% at US$105.74/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.21 US cents, 99.27 Japanese yen, 48.96 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 14 cents.Ahead of Tuesday's trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.3% tracking Wall Street's gains overnight. Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has raised the 12-month price target on COG Financial (ASX:COG) from $2.25 to $2.70 and maintain a buy rating on the diversified conglomerate of Australian distribution businesses following the announcement that the company will acquire a non-controlling interest in its subsidiary Fleet Network for a consideration of $23.9m.And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on SGH (ASX:SGH) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 16-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $47.80 to the range of $46.60 to $46.90 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street tumbled on Friday in the worst session in months after Trump took to his social media platform to announce plans for a “massive increase in tariffs on China” amid rising trade negotiation tensions. The S&P500 fell 2.71%, the Nasdaq tumbled 3.56% and the Dow Jones ended the day down 1.9%.In Europe on Friday markets closed lower after Trump threatened heightened tariffs on China which threatens to disrupt the stability of the global trade landscape once again. The STOXX 600 fell 1.3%, Germany's DAX lost 1.4%, the French CAC declined 1.53%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.9%.Across the Asia markets on Friday, it was mostly a sea of red as investors assess the state of trade and economic environments in the region. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.01% on Friday while Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 1.84%, and China's CSI index ended the day down 1.97%. South Korea's Kospi index was the only market to close with a gain of 1.73% on Friday.The local market ended Friday's trading session with a 0.13% loss as a Gaza peace plan prospect through Israel implanting a ceasefire deal in the strip led to a selloff in gold and oil stocks, while iron ore miners also dipped on further price disputes between China and BHP.L1 Group (ASX:L1G) soared over 11% on Friday after Bell Potter increased the 12-month price target on the company by almost 30% to 90cps amid the stability of growing funds for L1, the increased scale of the combined group, the upside from further cost synergies between L1 Capital and Platinum under the new L1 Group and further acquisitions of teams to bolster the strength of the company.What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 4.24% lower at US$58.90/barrel, gold is up 1.02% at US$4015.59/ounce and iron ore is up 0.84% at US$105.74/tonne.The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback to buy 65.07 US cents, 98.83 Japanese yen, 48.58 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 13 cents.Ahead of Monday's trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.94%.Trading ideas:Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Develop Global (ASX:DVP) from $5.10 to $5.40 and maintain a buy rating on the hybrid mining services and critical metals producer following the release of the company's updated DFS for its Sulphur Springs Zinc-Copper mining project. DVP's updated Sulphur Springs DFS shows a major uplift in project value (pre-tax NPV8% of $921m) driven by higher metal prices, increased plant throughput (1.5Mtpa), and a 19% reduction in operating costs. This enhances project economics and supports a valuation upgrade to $5.40/share.And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Universal Stores (ASX:UNI) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 247 days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $8.87 to the range of $11.50 to $12.20 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Tiefergehende Aktien-Analysen, Branchen-Deep-Dives und eine Datenbank aus über 1.000 Folgen? Mehr Infos zu unserer neuen Plattform gibt's unter oaws.de. Aktien hören ist gut. Aktien kaufen ist noch besser. Unser Partner Scalable Capital ist jetzt Bank und bietet euch dadurch jetzt noch bessere Konditionen. Mehr Infos findet ihr unter: scalable.capital/oaws. Pepsi geht's ok. Costco & Delta geht's top. China pusht MP Materials, USA Rare Earth & Ramaco. Novo Nordisk kauft Akero. HSBC will Hang Seng kaufen. Investoren wollen PSI kaufen. KNDS vielleicht an Börse. Ottobock erfolgreich an Börse. Gerresheimer fällt. Weniger E-Autos, weniger Wachstum. Ferrari hat die Börse enttäuscht (WKN: A141GE). Sixt hat höhere Margen und weniger Schulden als die Konkurrenz. Sixt (WKN: 723133) hat auch zwei Aktiengattungen. Eine davon zahlt massenhaft Dividende. Diesen Podcast vom 10.10.2025, 3:00 Uhr stellt dir die Podstars GmbH (Noah Leidinger) zur Verfügung.

Gold surges, Hong Kong banks tumble, and Uniqlo hits another record - what’s really driving markets this week? HSBC’s massive Hang Seng buyout shocks investors, while Wall Street buzzes over the “debasement trade” as commodities soar. Michelle Martin and Ryan Huang unpack what’s behind gold at US$4,000, silver at US$50, and Asia’s shifting sentiment. Plus: quick takes on PepsiCo, TSMC, Delta, Ferrari, Top Glove, and Fast Retailing. From matcha trends to market turns - this is your morning market intelligence, hosted by Michelle Martin with Ryan Huang.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

HSBC is making its boldest move in years, offering to fully acquire Hang Seng Bank for HK$106 billion.The bank calls it a strategic reinvestment; markets call it a risky bet. Join Dan Koh and Ryan Huang as they look at the numbers behind the HK$155-per-share offer, why markets reacted cautiously, and what this says about HSBC’s long-term confidence in Hong Kong’s banking future.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Singapore shares dipped today as Asian markets mostly traded in the green. The Straits Times Index fell 0.15% to 4,449.53 points at 11.55am Singapore time, with a value turnover of S$639.56M seen in the broader market. In terms of counters to watch, we have Keppel Reit, after the manager of the real estate investment trust (Reit) announced today that the private placement to raise about S$113 million for the acquisition of Top Ryde City Shopping Centre in Sydney, Australia, has closed. Elsewhere, from how HSBC Holdings plans to take Hang Seng Bank private in a deal that values the lender at US$37 billion to Netflix bringing video games to its TV service for the first time – more corporate headlines remained in focus. Also on deck – how Chinese stocks fared as investors returned after a long break and whether the ongoing AI rally has gone too fast and too far. On Market View, Money Matters’ finance presenter Chua Tian Tian dived into the details with Terence Wong, CEO, Azure Capital. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Wall Street closed mostly higher on Monday as investor optimism increased for M&A as two major deals were announced for Comerica and AMD separately. The S&P 500 rose 0.4%, the Nasdaq gained 0.8% on Monday and the Dow Jones ended the day down 0.1%. AMD shares rose 23% on Monday after the company reached a deal with OpenAI to supply the leading AI generator with AI chips which could ultimately end up giving the ChatGPT maker a 10% stake in the chipmaker. Meanwhile, Comerica shares jumped 10% after Fifth Third Bancorp reached a deal to buy the fellow regional U.S. bank for US$10.9bn in an all-stock transaction.In Europe overnight, markets closed mostly lower with the STOXX 600 closing flat as did Germany's DAX closed flat, while the French CAC lost 1% after the country's new prime minister called it quits after less than a month, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.13%.Across the Asia region on Monday, markets closed mixed led by Japan's Nikkei soaring 4% to a fresh record after the country's ruling Liberal Democratic Party elected conservative Sanae Takaichi as its new leader, positioning her to become the country's first female Prime Minister. Elsewhere in the region, Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.67% and India's Nifty 50 ended the day up 0.74%.Locally to start the new trading week the ASX200 closed just 0.07% lower as a tech and healthcare sell-off offset strength among the materials and utilities stocks.  Gold and copper spot prices reaching a record and 16-month high respectively buoyed local producers yesterday with the outlook for continued momentum for both critical metals to extend for some time to come.Brisbane Broncos (ASX:BBL) shares soared 27% on Monday to a record close after the club's 19-year grand final winning drought ended on Sunday with the team taking out the winning title for 2025.What to watch today: On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 1.5% higher at US$61.79/barrel, gold is up a further almost 2% to yet another record US$3962.58/ounce and iron ore is up 0.25% at US$104.36/tonne.The Aussie dollar has further strengthened against the greenback to buy 66.19 U.S. cents, 99.47 Japanese yen, 49.19 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 13 cents.Ahead of Tuesday's trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.16%. Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has resumed coverage of Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) with a buy rating and 12-month price target of $30.00, up from $20.85 as the analyst sees NST as a stable, low-risk gold producer entering a phase of free-cash-flow harvesting in FY27 following the $1.5bn investment in the KCGM mill expansion from 12 million tonnes per annum to 27 million tonnes per annum.And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Ventia Services Group (ASX:VNT) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 15-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $5.24 to the range of $5.85 to $6.00 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St closed higher on Tuesday as investors overlooked government shutdown fears to post an unusually strong month of September. The Dow Jones rose 0.18% to close at a fresh record high while the Nasdaq added 0.31% and the S&P500 ended the day up 0.41%.With a potential government shutdown looming, investors have been wary about a slowing labour market, the risk of stagflation and elevated stock valuation, so although government shutdowns aren't usually market-moving events, this time we could see market movements as a result. In Europe overnight, markets closed higher led by Germany's DAX rising 0.57%, while the STOXX 600 gained 0.5%, the French CAC climbed 0.19% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.54%. Across the Asia markets on Tuesday, markets traded mixed as the latest data out of China showed manufacturing activity contracted for a 6th straight month, with the manufacturing PMI index coming in at 49.8 points. While still in contraction mode, the reading was better than economists were expecting and the strongest reading since March. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.25%, and South Korea's Kospi index lost 0.19%, while China's CSI index gained 0.45%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.95%.The local market closed 0.2% lower on Tuesday following a lacklustre session on Wall St on Monday and investors digested comments out of RBA Governor Michele Bullock after Australia's central bank maintained the current cash rate at 3.6% for the next period. Materials and industrials stocks bucked the trend yesterday to close higher while energy stocks were the hardest hit amid declining oil prices.Ms Bullock said market services inflation remains sticky and has been a key sticking point for the RBA's rate journey over the last year adding to the difficult decisions made around Australia's rate outlook pathway. For this reason, the RBA was content in holding the cash rate at the conclusion of yesterday's meeting for the period ahead.Seven West Media (ASX:SWM) and Southern Cross Media (ASX:SXL) shares rose over 7% and over 6% respectively yesterday on news of a proposed merger between the Australian media giants, while Restaurant Brands New Zealand soared almost 60% after receiving a takeover offer from its majority shareholder, Finaccess Restauracion, a Mexican company.What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 1.5% lower at US$62.51/barrel, gold is up 0.33% at yet another record US$3845.83/ounce and iron ore is trading 0.09% lower at US$105.35/tonne.The Aussie dollar has further strengthened against the greenback overnight to buy 66.16 US cents, 97.82 Japanese Yen, 49.17 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 14 cents.Ahead of the midweek trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.12%. Trading ideas:Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Pantoro (ASX:PNR) from $2.15 to $2.80 and maintain a hold rating on the diversified mining services group as shares have climbed 130% in one year but some key catalysts and tailwinds including the gold price and new contract wins, are driving a strong growth outlook for the company which led the analyst to increase the 12-month PT and maintain a hold.And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Infratil (ASX:IFT) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 54-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $10.73 to the range of $9.40 to $9.70 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

US equity futures are higher with S&P going up. European and Asian equity markets both higher. Hang Seng outperforms amid tech gains. Bonds firmer, which sees US 10-year yield off 4 bps at 4.1%. Dollar softer, oil down, gold up. Industrial metals are mostly firmer. After global pharma shares came under pressure last Friday from President Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on branded drugs, Europe and Japan officials expressed confidence that their levies will be capped at the 15% stipulated in their respective trade agreements with US, according to press. White House official said UK faces 100% levy given there was no specific stipulation for pharmas in their US deal. Sources indicated British government set to concede UK should pay more for some medicines and Starmer chief business adviser Chandra will travel to Washington next week to convey such overtures.Companies Mentioned: TotalEnergies, Occidental Petroleum, Merus, Genmab

Wall St closed higher across the major averages on Monday as investors bought back into the AI darlings a week after scepticism rose around the sustainable growth of the sector. The S&P500 gained 0.2%, the Nasdaq rose 0.48% and the Dow Jones ended Monday's session up 0.15%. Shares of game maker EA Games rallied 4.5% after the company announced it's going to be taken private in an acquisition worth US$55bn.In Europe overnight markets closed higher to start the new trading week in the green. The STOXX600 rose 0.34%, Germany's DAX added 0.02%, the French CAC climbed 0.13% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.16%.Across the Asia region on Monday markets closed mixed with Japan's Nikkei falling 0.69%, while South Korea's Kospi index added 1.33%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 1.9% and China's CSI index gained 1.54%.Locally to start the new trading week, a healthcare rebound pushed the ASX to a positive close with the key index rallying 0.9% while the spot price of gold also reset a fresh record, propelling gold miners to new heights.Defence stocks were all the rage for investors yesterday with DroneShield soaring over 18% while EOS climbed almost 13% amid a tense backdrop in Europe with NATO boosting air-defence assets in response to new drone incursions at a key military base in Denmark last week. EOS also released a sales update yesterday revealing it is expecting full year revenue from existing contracts to be $115m to $125m in FY25 however, new orders could boost this by $25m in addition to its contract backlog with an estimated value of $299m.Synlait Milk share jumped 15% following the release of the company's full-year results yesterday. The dairy processor reported a more than twofold increase in underlying EBITDA, reaching NZ$107.2 million for FY 2025. Additionally, Synlait announced an agreement to sell its North Island assets to global healthcare giant Abbott Laboratories in a deal expected to generate around NZ$307 million in proceeds. What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 3.86% lower at US$63.18/barrel; gold is up 1.63% at a fresh record US$3829/ounce and iron ore is down 0.09% at US$105.35/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.78 US cents, 97.75 Japanese yen, 48.91 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 14 cents.Ahead of Tuesday's trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.17%.Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has raised the 12-month price target on Electro Optic Systems (ASX:EOS) from $5.70 to $11 and maintain a buy rating on the Australian defence manufacturer specialising in advanced weapon systems and satellite tracking technology company following an update out yesterday including revenue guidance weaker than Bell Potter expected in the near term but strong tailwinds driving the long-term growth of the sector. Bell Potter has upgraded the 12-month TP reflecting a higher CY26e EV/EBITDA multiple due to strengthened confidence in longer term revenue growth.Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on HMC Capital (ASX:HMC) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 29-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $3.23 to the range of $2.55 to $2.65 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St closed higher on Friday after personal consumption price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, came in as expected at 2.9% for the month of August. The major indices snapped a 3-day losing streak on Friday with the S&P500 rising 0.6%, while the Nasdaq added 0.44% and the Dow Jones ended the day up 0.65%, but for the week the key indices each posted a loss.In Europe on Friday markets closed mostly higher led by the French CAC and FTSE 100 rising 0.97% and 0.96% respectively while the STOXX 600 added 0.8% and Germany's DAX ended the day up 0.87%.Across the Asia region on Friday markets closed lower as investors assessed the 100% healthcare tariffs announced by Trump and continue to monitor trade tensions between the world's largest economies. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.35%, India's Nifty 50 declined 0.95%, Japan's Nikkei lost 0.87% and South Korea's Kospi index ended the day down 2.45%.Locally on Friday the ASX200 posted a 0.17% rise on Friday as a materials rally offset weakness among healthcare and utilities stocks.Healthcare stocks tumbled on Friday after President Trump announced 100% tariffs on pharmaceutical companies.Pro Medicus (ASX:PME), CSL (ASX:CSL) and Telix (ASX:TLX) dropped between 2% and 3% on Friday, and even Mesoblast (ASX:MSB) and Clarity Pharmaceuticals (ASX:CU6) were caught up in the sell off despite both companies confirming their products were exempt from the new tariffs.Vulcan Energy (ASX:VUL) jumped 15% on a new contract signing to the value of $179m with a consortium to develop and build a geothermal power plant in Germany, while IperionX (ASX:IPX) rose 5.4% after receiving an additional US$25m award from the US department of War to strengthen the country's defence strategy. What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.32% higher at US$65.19/barrel, gold is up 0.5% at US$3768/ounce and iron ore is down 0.09% at US$105.44/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 65.45 US cents, 97.92 Japanese yen, 48.91 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 13 cents.Ahead of Monday's trading session, the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.24%Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has increased the rating on Pantoro Gold (ASX:PNR) from a sell to a hold and have raised the 12-month price target on the gold production and development company from $4.40 to $5.35 following the release of the company's FY25 results including a $112m turnaround from a $46m loss in FY24 to a $66m profit in FY25. PNR has demonstrated a step-change in cash generation and is on track for gold production growth YOY, as well as multiple production sources are now established, de-risking the outlook which led to the rating upgrades.And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Karoon Energy (ASX:KAR) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 19-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $1.73 to the range of $1.87 to $1.91 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

September has been a record-breaking month for global markets, with the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ hitting all-time highs. Asian equities have also soared, led by KOSPI and Hang Seng gains, as investors shift from fixed income to equities in search of higher returns. In Singapore, initiatives like the Equity Market Development Programme and new rules for single-family offices are strengthening the local market, while a strong IPO pipeline promises more opportunities ahead. Lee Kian Soon, CEO of Astral Asset Management unpacks what these developments mean for investors and what to watch in the final quarter of 2025, from China’s 15th Five-Year Plan to the next Fed decision. Produced/Presented: Ryan HuangSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the US overnight Wall St closed lower as investors pulled back from the recent AI run on comments made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell around equity prices being highly valued at present. The S&P500 closed 0.55% lower in afternoon trade, while the Nasdaq saw the biggest fall of 0.95%, and the Dow Jones is closed 0.19% lower so far on Tuesday.In Europe overnight it was a different story with markets closing in the green following the record strength on Wall St on Monday. The STOXX 600 rose 0.4%, Germany's DAX added 0.36%, the French CAC climbed 0.54% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day flat.Across the Asia region on Tuesday, markets closed mostly higher buoyed by a tech rally in the region after Nvidia announced a partnership with OpenAI. Taiwan's Taiex index rose 1.42% to a record high, while South Korea's Kospi index climbed 0.51%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.99% and India's Nifty 50 ended the day down 0.13%.The local market started the new trading week with an extension of last week's rally as investor optimism has been boosted by strength on Wall St and the gold price soaring to new records which has boosted gold stocks to new heights. On Tuesday, the ASX200 posted a 0.4% gain at the closing bell as financial and materials stocks led the day's winning sectors.Myer (ASX:MYR) plunged over 30% on Tuesday after the department store giant released its FY25 results including a slight sales increase, but investors were more focused on responding to the 13.8% decline in EBIT while NPAT fell 30% YoY to $36.8m. The company also reported gross margins for Myer DS down 65bps due to a mix change toward concessions and promotional activity, and reported a statutory net loss of $211.2m primarily due to the acquisition of Premier Investments' apparel brands in January.Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX:TLX) rallied a further 6% yesterday after announcing that the US Centres for Medicare & Medicaid Services has granted Transitional Pass-Through (TPT) payment status for Telix's Gozellix drug candidate which is the company's next-generation PSMA-PET imaging agent for prostate cancer.What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 1.97% higher at US$63.50/barrel, gold is up 0.84% at US$3778/ounce and iron ore is flat at US$105.49/tonne.Ahead of Tuesday's trading session, the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.35% tracking Wall Street's slide overnight.Trading ideas:Bell Potter has maintained its hold rating on Technology One (ASX:TNE) and lifted its target price from $35.75 per share to $38.22 per share, ahead of its annual showcase event where the company's new products and developments will be highlighted.And Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in Navigator Global Investments (ASX:NGI), indicating that the stock may rise from the close of $1.20 to the range of $2.43 to $2.51 over a period of 21 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

S&P futures are down (0.3%) with major tech names edging lower in pre-market trading. Asian equities finished Monday mixed. Japan's Nikkei rebounded after Friday's BOJ-related drop, and the Hang Seng underperformed. Gains were seen in Australia, Taiwan, and South Korea, supported by semiconductor optimism. European benchmarks are mostly softer in early trades. Companies Mentioned: TikTok, Pfizer, Boeing, Comcast

Wall Street started the new trading week with some fresh records as big names like Nvidia boosted investor optimism about the future of AI. The S&P500 rose 0.44% to hit a fresh record high at the close while the Nasdaq jumped 0.7% and the Dow Jones ended the day up 0.14%. Nvidia shares rose 3.9% on Monday after announcing a partnership with OpenAI through the investment of $100bn to build out data centres. Across European markets overnight it was mostly a sea of red as investors continue to assess President Trump's visa crackdown. The STOXX 600 fell 0.5%, Germany's DAX lost 0.48%, the French CAC fell 0.3% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.11%.Across Asia markets on Monday, markets closed mixed as investors in the region also responded to Trump's hefty H-1B visa fees. Indian tech stocks fell overnight 3% in response to the newly imposed visa fees, while Japan's Nikkei rose 0.99%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.76%, and South Korea's Kospi index gained 0.68%.Locally to start the new trading week, the ASX200 posted a 0.43% gain amid a boost in commodity prices driving a rally for materials stocks, especially in the form of gold after the price of the precious metal hit yet another fresh recover overnight over US$3700/ounce.Regis Healthcare (ASX:REG) shares plunged 26% on Tuesday after the company warned that the Federal Government's 4.7% funding increase for aged care was below expectations and won't cover rising staff costs, creating a funding gap. As a result, Regis downgraded its earnings outlook, guiding to only modest EBITDA growth (3–7%) for FY2025, disappointing investors and sparking a sharp sell-off on Monday.What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.13% lower at US$62.32/barrel, gold is up a further 1.71% to a fresh record US$3747/ounce and iron ore is trading 0.05% at US$105.49/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 66.02 US cents, 97.50 Japanese yen, 47.06 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 12 cents.Ahead of Tuesday's trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.19% tracking Wall Street's gains overnight. Trading ideas:Bell Potter has initiated coverage of Generation Development (ASX:GDG) with a buy and a 12-month price target of $8.20. Generation Development Group (GDG) is a financial services company that offers a range of tax-effective investment solutions, annuities, managed accounts and research services. The analyst sees GDG as a Buy due to its transformative earnings growth, strategic acquisitions, strong managed accounts positioning, supportive regulatory tailwinds, and a major vote of confidence from BlackRock, all pointing to a long runway for scalable, high-margin growth.And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Acrow (ASX:ACF) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 337-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $1.06 to the range of $1.30 to $1.36 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed higher on Friday and for the week as investors welcomed the Fed's rate cut decision on Thursday last week. The Nasdaq rose 0.72%, the S&P500 rallied 0.5% and the Dow Jones gained 0.37% to hit a fresh record at the close. For the week, the Nasdaq added 2.2% while the Dow and S&P500 gained 1% and 1.2% respectively.Apple shares led the gains on Friday with a 3.2% spike after the company's latest iPhone went on sale.In Europe on Friday markets closed lower as investors focused on trade and the state of the European economy. The STOXX600 fell 0.04%, Germany's DAX lost 0.15%, the French CAC declined just 0.01%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.12%.Across the Asia region on Friday markets closed lower after the Bank of Japan held rates steady amid concerns of external volatility impacting Japan's inflation journey. Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed flat, India's Nifty 50 declined 0.55%, and Japan's Nikkei fell 0.57%.Locally on Friday the ASX200 posted a positive end to the week amid fresh records on Wall St on Thursday and a healthcare rally locally fuelling a 0.3% gain at the closing bell.For the week, the key index lost 1.03% as a sharp sell off in energy stocks weighed down the key index.Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX:TLX) did much of the heavy lifting in the healthcare sector on Friday with a 7.5% rally after Citi initiated coverage of the commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company with a buy rating, indicating its prostate cancer drug candidate has the potential to become a ‘blockbuster drug'.Pro Medicus (ASX:PME) also benefited from Citi's expanded coverage with a rally of 5.5% after Citi named PME among its favourite stock picks for the healthcare sector.What to watch today:Gold miners locally extended their run on Friday as the recent gold spot price rally continued with the price of gold topping US$3659 on Friday. Northern Star Resources added 0.9% on Friday while Evolution Mining ended the day up 1.52%.On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 1.34% lower at US$62.72/barrel, gold is up 1.12% at US$3684.75/ounce and iron ore is up 0.2% at US$105.44/tonne.The Aussie dollar has slightly weakened against the greenback to buy 65.96 U.S. cents, 97.63 Japanese yen, 48.85 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 12 cents.Ahead of Monday's trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.27% tracking Wall Street's gains on Friday. Trading ideas:Bell Potter has initiated coverage of Orica (ASX:ORI) with a buy rating and a 12-month price target of $23.00 as the analyst sees Orica is well-positioned for strong near-term earnings growth across its diversified segments, driven by high-margin products, favourable pricing, and operational improvements. Additionally, the company is on track for de-leveraging and increasing shareholder returns, making it an attractive investment opportunity.And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on ResMed (ASX:RMD) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 19-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $41.21 to the range of $45.30 to $46.20 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Ahead of today's FOMC decision, S&P futures are pointing to a flat open. Asian equities ended Wednesday trading mixed, with the Hang Seng surging on strength in internet and technology stocks, while European equity markets are mostly firmer in early trades. Attention is focused on the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee decision, with a 25 basis point rate cut fully priced in. Market reactions may hinge on Fed commentary and the updated dot plot, which will shape expectations for approximately 150 basis points of easing over the next year.Companies Mentioned: Tiktok, Apple

The US overnight saw a decline with all 3 of the major indexes closing in the red, as investors take some profits ahead of the Fed's highly anticipated rate decision. The S&P500 closed down 0.13%, the Nasdaq fell 0.07% and the Dow Jones saw the biggest decline, ending the day down 0.27%Across European markets overnight it was a sea of red with the STOXX 600 falling 1.2%, while Germany's DAX tumbled 1.8%, the French CAC fell 1% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.88%. Asian markets closed Tuesday's session higher as progress on trade talks between China and the US continued to boost investor sentiment for a second session in the region. Japan's Nikkei rose 0.3% to top 45,000 index points for the first time ever, while South Korea's Kospi index rose 1.24% to also reset its record high, India's Nifty 50 also gained 0.68% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng ended the day flat. The local market started the new trading week lower before recovering ground to close 0.28% higher on Tuesday as a surge in energy and discretionary stocks offset weakness among healthcare stocks. Investors welcomed comments out of the RBA on Tuesday signalling Australia's central bank has nearly achieved its inflation goal, successfully bringing inflation close to target while maintaining low unemployment and easing cost-of-living pressures, with wages now outpacing prices.Super Retail Group (ASX:SUL) fell 4.3% on Tuesday after the managing director and CEO was let go over a personal event.What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning: Oil is trading 1.92% higher at US$64.52/barrelGold is up 0.3% at US$3689/ounce Iron ore is up 0.1% at US$105.42/tonneAhead of the midweek trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.45% tracking Wall Street's sell-off on Tuesday.Trading ideas:Bell Potter have maintained their buy rating on gold miner Alkane Resources (ASX:ALK), and increased their 12-month target price to $1.45 per share off the back of its recently completed merger with Canadian listed gold producer Mandalay Resources. At it current share price  of around $1 per share, this implies a 45% share price growth in a year. And Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in Universal Store Holdings (ASX:UNI), indicating that the share price may rise from the close of $8.50 per share to the range of $11.20 to $11.80 per share over a period of 229 days according to the standard principles of technical analysis. 

Positive trade talks between China and the U.S. boosted investor sentiment on Wall Street on Monday, leading to a positive finish across the major averages. The S&P500 climbed 0.5% to a fresh record high over 6000 points for the first time while the Nasdaq added 0.9% to also hit a fresh record close and the Dow Jones ended the day up 0.1%. U.S. and Chinese officials met for a second day with progress on the trade front said to be moving well on top of talks around the sale of Chinese owned social media company, TikTok.In Europe overnight markets closed mostly higher as investors welcome trade negotiation progress between the U.S. and China. The STOXX600 rose 0.4%, Germany's DAX added 0.2%, the French CAC climbed 1% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.1%.Across the Asia region on Monday markets closed mixed with Hong Kong's Hang Seng rising 0.23%, while China's CSI index gained 0.24%, South Korea's Kospi index rose to a fresh record high with a gain of 0.35%, and Japan's Nikkei was closed for a holiday.Locally on Monday the ASX200 posted a 0.13% loss to start the new trading week lower.The losses extended from last week as investors overlooked the widely expected US rate cut announcement next week and instead sold out of healthcare and gold mining stocks to start the new trading week lower.The most traded stocks by Bell Direct clients yesterday were led by Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN), CSL (ASX:CSL) and Westpac (ASX:WBC).What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 1.2% higher at US$63.31/barrel, gold is up a further 1.07% at US$3681/ounce and iron ore is trading 0.11% lower at US$105.31/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 66.73 U.S. cents, 98.32 Japanese yen, 49.04 British pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 12 cents.Ahead of Tuesday's trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up almost half a %.Trading ideas:Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Adairs (ASX:ADH) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 12-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $2.62 to the range of $3.15-$3.30 according to standard principles of technical analysis.And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on The A2 Milk Company (ASX:A2M) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 7-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $9.10 to the range of $8.30 to $8.45 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Riding on momentum from Tuesday's fresh record highs, S&P futures are up +0.3% and pointing to another higher open. Asian markets closed broadly higher, led by the Hang Seng's +1% gain and the Kospi nearing its record high. European equity markets are also firmer in early trades with major benchmarks all edging higher. AI expansion continues to drive positive sentiment in the tech sector, with Asian semis stocks benefiting from a rally in US peers. Oracle surged +28% after reporting strong growth in cloud infrastructure bookings, while Google Cloud shared a bullish update, projecting that at least 55% of its $106B in customer commitments will convert to revenue within two years. Companies Mentioned: KKR, Airbus, Oracle, Google, Chevron

S&P futures are pointing to a higher open today, up +0.5%. Asian markets traded higher today with the Nikkei outperforming and Hang Seng setting a third consecutive day of gains. European markets are also firmer in early trades. In a CNBC interview, President Trump reiterated key trade positions, particularly targeting India and China. He criticized India's Russian energy purchases, BRICS participation, high tariffs, and resistance to market access, threatening to hike existing 25% tariffs with a decision expected shortly. India is reportedly considering responses, including easing dairy market access and supporting affected exporters. On China, Trump stated that a trade deal is very close, with a potential meeting with President Xi by year-end, contingent on progress.Companies Mentioned: Walt Disney, OpenAI, Boeing

S&P futures are pointing to a flat open today, up +0.1%. Asian markets traded broadly higher today, with the Nikkei and Hang Seng both up +0.6%. European equity markets are also firmer in early trades. Tensions between the U.S. and India have escalated after former President Trump threatened significant tariff hikes on India over its purchase of Russian oil. This follows a 25% tariff imposed by Trump last week. However, both nations remain engaged in dialogue, with talks scheduled for late August. India is reportedly considering increased purchases of U.S. gas, communication equipment, and gold but remains firm on protecting its agricultural and dairy sectors. Companies Mentioned: STAAR Surgical, Core Scientific

Fed kept rates on hold with dissent from Waller and Bowman. Powell said will not let tariffs become inflationary.BoJ maintained rates as expected, raised growth and inflation outlook. Continued to note uncertainty over trade.US equity futures rebounded after-hours with strength in tech/AI-related names after Microsoft (+8.3%) and Meta (+11.5%) smashed Q2 earnings.US President Trump announced that South Korea will be subject to a 15% and make USD 350bln in investments in the US.European equity futures suggest a mildly positive open. Hang Seng lags post-disappointing Chinese PMIs.DXY rally pauses for breath, EUR/USD remains on a 1.14 handle. USTs rebounded off the lows after post-Powell pressure.Looking ahead, highlights include French CPI, PPI, German Unemployment Rate, CPI, EZ Unemployment Rate, Italian CPI, US Challenger Layoffs, PCE (Jun), Jobless Claims, Employment Wages, Chicago PMI, Atlanta Fed GDPNow, Canadian GDP, SARB Policy Announcement.Earnings from Shell, Unilever, LSE, Haleon, Standard Chartered, Anglo American, Sanofi, Schneider Electric, Safran, Credit Agricole, Saint Gobain, SocGen, Accor, Teleperformance, Air France, AB InBev, BBVA, Holcim Puma, Lufthansa, BMW, Apple, Amazon, Strategy, Coinbase, Reddit, Roku, CVS, Roblox, AbbVie, Norwegian Cruise Line, Cigna, Mastercard & PG&E.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

S&P futures are pointing to a flat open today, up +0.1%. Asian markets traded mixed on Wednesday. The Nikkei closed flat, while the Hang Seng fell (1.4%), weighed down by weakness in tech and property stocks. European markets are marginally higher in early trades. The U.S. and China concluded two days of trade talks in Stockholm without significant breakthroughs but described the discussions as constructive. Key issues included U.S. concerns over China's purchases of sanctioned Iranian and Russian crude, industrial overcapacity, and rare earths trade, while China raised concerns over fentanyl tariffs and export controls. No commitments were made on structural reforms or rebalancing China's economy. Companies Mentioned: Anthropic, Kraken, Intercontinental Exchange

S&P futures are pointing to a lower open today, down (0.6%). European equity markets also opened in the red, with the major indices roughly down by (0.5%). Asian markets traded mixed with Greater China markets outperforming. The Hang Seng surged +1.8%, boosted by gains in consumer-oriented and property stocks, while the Shanghai Composite hit a 3.5-year high. President Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian goods not covered by the USMCA, effective 1-Aug, increasing from the current 25%. Energy-related goods remain at a 10% tariff. Trump hinted at potential baseline tariffs of 15 to 20%, up from the current 10%, and suggested similar measures might target the EU soon. Companies Mentioned: Google, Boyd Gaming, Panasonic

S&P futures are pointing to a flat open today. Asian markets traded mixed today with Japan's Nikkei logging small gains, supported by resilience in manufacturing. The Hang Seng underperformed, as property and tech stocks lagged. European markets are trading higher, with the DAX and CAC leading gains. President Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper, set for late July or early August implementation, and proposed a 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals with a longer timeline. He ruled out extending the August 1 deadline, emphasizing his tough stance on trade while accusing BRICS nations of undermining the U.S. dollar and threatening an additional 10% tariff. Companies Mentioned: Apple, Starbucks, Merck, Verona Pharma, AES Corp

S&P futures are pointing to a slightly higher open today, up +0.1%. Asian markets had a mixed session on Thursday. The Hang Seng dropped (0.6%) amidst weakness in property stocks while Japan's Nikkei dipped as uncertainty around trade talks weighed on sentiment. European markets are broadly higher in early trades, with the STOXX 600 up +0.3% and the FTSE 100 leading at +0.5%. President Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on exports to the U.S. and 40% on transshipments, reduced from an earlier proposed 46%. The U.S. will face zero tariffs on exports to Vietnam, though specifics on product groups and transshipment provisions remain unclear. Companies Mentioned: Old Point Financial, Apollo Global Management, TripAdvisor

S&P futures are pointing to a higher open today, up +0.2%. Asian markets finished Wednesday trading mostly lower, with the Hang Seng slightly higher and Japan's Nikkei weighed down by renewed tariff concerns. European equities are broadly showing strength in early sessions with the French CAC leading gains. President Trump stated he is not considering extending the July 9 deadline for resuming higher tariffs and reiterated the possibility of imposing duty rates on several nations, including Japan. Trump criticized Japan's limited U.S. rice imports and imbalance in auto trade, suggesting future tariffs could range from 30% to 35%.Companies Mentioned: Paramount Global, Intel, Spectris

US equity futures are pointing slightly up. European markets are narrowly mixed, while Asia go broadly higher, with decent gains for Nikkei and Hang Seng. Kospi extended recent post-election outperformance. For treasuries, 10-year yields stay steady at 4.5% after backing up sharply in prior session. Dollar softer, oil down, gold softer, industrial metals mixed. Attention on trade developments with US and China resuming talks in London with export licenses a key topic of discussion. NEC Director Hassett confirmed US is seeking agreement on rare earths from London talks. For its part China has taken issue with US principally over tech export controls and Huawei crackdown, which were attributed in part for Beijing maintaining its rare earths export curbs. Unclear whether the latest talks will lead to resolution of divisions between US and China, leaving fate of tariffs unknown.Companies Mentioned: Qualcomm Inc, Alphawave IP Group, Quartzsea Acquisition Corp, Meta Platforms

S&P futures are pointing lower today, down (0.47%). European equity markets are firmer, following slightly weaker levels on Monday. Asian equity markets went mostly higher, with Hang Seng a notable outperformer. Overnight, US 2-year yield down 1 bps to 3.9% and 10-year down 3 bps to 4.4%. Dollar firmer, oil up, gold down, industrial metals lower. Renewed US-China trade tensions has spilled into public view with both sides accusing each other of reneging on Geneva deal. White House talking up prospects of a Trump-Xi call this week but no confirmation yet from China. Critical minerals remain source of tensions with China reportedly slow walking offer to relax rare earths curbs, a response to latest US tech curbs and revocation of Chinese student visas. Companies Mentioned: Snowflake, Merck, Crunchy Data, MoonLake Immunotherapeutics

S&P futures are pointing lower today, down (0.5%). European equity markets are weaker. Asian markets are lower, with Nikkei, Hang Seng and Taiwan underperforming, mainland China closed for public holiday. Overnight, treasury yields went up, with the two year up 2bps and the ten year up 5bps. The U.S. dollar weaker, oil up, gold gains, industrial metals higher. Trade tensions weighing on risk appetite. US-China relations fraying a month with two sides accusing the other of violating Geneva agreement. Main disagreements revolve around US frustration at China slow walking offer of relaxing rare earths curbs and China taking issue with US at new export restrictions. On geopolitical front, China rebuked US after Defense Secretary Hegseth warned of potentially imminent Taiwan invasion. Renewed tensions come as press sources noted efforts underway to set up a Trump-Xi call in bid to move forward talks.Companies Mentioned: Qualcomm, Alphawave IP Group, Sanofi, Blueprint Medicines, BASF

S&P futures are pointing lower, down (1.2%). European equity markets are lower, near worse levels. Asian equities are broadly weaker with Hang Seng leading China markets lower. Japan, Korea and Australia all in negative territory. Overnight, treasury yields were mixed, with 2-year down 1 bp and 10-year up 7 bps to 4.5%. Dollar is weaker across the board. Gold has been rebounding after posting worst week since mid twenty twenty one. Crude and copper tracking equity market declines. Bitcoin erased earlier gain. Moody's downgraded US credit rating late Friday, citing growth in government debt and projected widening of deficits if tax cuts are extended. Downgrade plays into market's longstanding deficit concerns driven by Trump policy agenda that have contributed to upward rise in long-term yields and term premium widening to highest since 2014Companies mentioned: NVIDIA, Assura, BT Group

S&P futures are pointing to a flat open, up 0.1%. European equity markets are mostly weaker, with the STOXX 600 down 0.2%. Asian equities had a mixed session, with the Hang Seng rebounding sharply, while Japan and Australia saw losses. The U.S. Commerce Department announced a revision of AI chip export rules, rescinding regulations that were set to take effect in May due to concerns over stifling innovation, regulatory burdens, and strained diplomatic ties. Companies Mentioned: Tesla, TXO Partners

S&P futures are pointing to a softer open, down (0.2%), as investors brace for a heavy slate of corporate earnings. European equities are firmer in early trades, extending recent rallies. Meanwhile, Asian equities were mixed, with Japan and Australia logging small gains, while the Hang Seng edged higher after paring early losses. The Shanghai Composite and South Korea's Kospi both finished lower. Companies Mentioned: Blackstone, JetBlue, United Airlines, Sunnova Energy

This week we talk about taxes, reciprocity, and recession.We also discuss falling indices, stagflation, and theories of operation.Recommended Book: The Serviceberry by Robin Wall KimmererTranscriptStagflation, which is a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation, is exactly what it sounds like: a combination of those two elements, usually with high levels of unemployment, as well, that can cause a prolonged period of economic sluggishness and strain that slows growth and can even lead to a recession.The term was coined in the UK in the 1960s to describe issues they were facing at the time, but it was globally popularized by the oil shocks of the 1970s, which sparked a period of high prices and slow growth in many countries, including in the US, where inflation boomed, productivity floundered, and economic growth plateaud, leading to a stock market crash in 1973 and 1974.Inflation, unto itself, can be troubling, as it means prices are going up faster than incomes, so the money people earn and have saved is worth less and less each day. That leads to a bunch of negative knock-on effects, which is a big part of why the US Fed has kept interest rates so high, aiming to trim inflation rates back to their preferred level of about 2% as quickly as possible in the wake of inflation surges following the height of the Covid pandemic.Stagnant economic growth is also troubling, as it means lowered GDP, reduced future outlook for an economy, and that also tends to mean less investment in said economy, reduced employment levels—and likely even lower employment levels in the future—and an overall sense of malaise that can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, no one feeling particularly upbeat about where their country is going; and that's not great economically, but it can also lead to all sorts of social issues, as people with nothing to look forward to but worse and worse outcomes are more likely to commit crimes or stoke revolutions than their upbeat, optimistic, comfortable kin.The combination of these two elements is more dastardly than just the sum of their two values implies, though, as measures that government agencies might take to curb inflation, like raising interest rates and overall tightening monetary policy, reduces business investment which can lead to unemployment. On the flip-side, though, things a government might do to reduce unemployment, like injecting more money into the economy, tends to spike inflation.It's a lose-lose situation, basically, and that's why government agencies tasked with keeping things moving along steadily go far out of their way to avoid stagflation; it's not easily addressed, and it only really goes away with time, and sometimes a very long time.There are two primary variables that have historically led to stagflation: supply shocks and government policies that reduce output and increase the money supply too rapidly.The stagflation many countries experienced in the 1970s was the result of Middle Eastern oil producing nations cutting off the flow of oil to countries that supported Israel during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, though a sharp increase in money supply and the end of the Bretton Woods money management system, which caused exchange rate issues between global currencies, also contributed, and perhaps even more so than the oil shock.What I'd like to talk about today is another major variable, the implementation of a huge package of new tariffs on pretty much everyone by the US, that many economists are saying could lead to a new period of stagflation, alongside other, more immediate consequences.—A tariff is a type of tax that's imposed on imported goods, usually targeting specific types of goods, or goods from a particular place.Way back in the day these were an important means of funding governments: the US government actually made most of its revenue, about 90% of it, from tariffs before 1863, because there just wasn't a whole of lot other ways for the young country to make money at the time.Following the War of 1812, the US government attempted to double tariffs, but that depleted international trade, which led to less income, not more—gross imports dropped by 71%, and the government scrambled to implement direct and excise taxes, the former of which is the tax a person or business pays that isn't based on transactions, while the latter is a duty that's paid upon the manufacture of something, as opposed to when it's sold.Tariffs resurfaced in the following decades, but accounted for less and less of the government's income as the country's manufacturing base increased, and excise and income taxes made up 63% of the US's federal revenue by 1865.Tax sources have changes a lot over the years, and they vary somewhat from country to country.But the dominant move in the 20th century, especially post-WWII, has been toward free trade, which usually means no or low tariffs on goods being made in one place and sold in another, in part because this tends to lead to more wealth for everyone, on average, at least.This refocus toward globalized free trade resulted in a lot of positives, like being able to specialize and make things where they're cheap and sell them where they're precious, but also some negatives, like the offshoring of jobs—though even those negatives, which sucked for the people who lost their jobs, have been positive for some, as the companies who offshored the jobs did so because it saved them money, the folks who were hired were generally paid more than was possible in their region, previously, and the people consuming the resulting goods were able to get them cheaper than would otherwise be feasible.It's been a mixed bag, then, but the general consensus among economists is that open trade is good because it incentivizes competition and productivity. Governments are less likely to implement protectionist policies to preserve badly performing local business entities from better performing foreign versions of the same, and that means less wasted effort and resources, more options for everyone, and more efficient overall economic operation, which contributes to global flourishing. And not for nothing, nations that trade with each other tend to be less likely to go to war with each other.Now that's a massively simplified version of the argument, but again, that's been the outline for how things are meant to work, and aside from some obvious exceptions—like China's protection of its local tech sector from foreign competition, and the US's protection of its aviation and car industries—it's generally worked as intended, and the world has become massively wealthier during this period compared to before this state of affairs was broadly implemented, post-WWII; there's simply no comparison, the difference is stark.There are renewed concerns about stagflation in the United States, however, because of a big announcement made by US President Trump on April 2, 2025, that slapped substantial and at times simply massive new tariffs on just about everyone, including the country's longest-term allies and most valuable trading partners.On what the president called “Liberation Day,” he announced two new types of tariff: one is a universal 10% import duty on all goods brought into the US, and another that he called a reciprocal tariff on imports from scores of countries, including 15 that will be hit especially hard—a list that includes China, EU nations, Canada, and Japan, among others.The theory of these so-called reciprocal tariffs is that Trump thinks the US is being taken advantage of, as, to use one example that he cited, the US charges a 2.5% tariff on imported cars, while the EU charges a 10% tariff on American cars imported to their union.The primary criticism of this approach, which has been cited by most economists and entities like the World Trade Organization, is that the numbers the US administration apparently used to make this list don't really add up, and seem to include some made-up measures of trade deficits, which some analysts suspect were calculated by AI tools like ChatGPT, as the same incorrect measures are spat out by commonly use chatbots like ChatGPT when they're asked about how to balance these sorts of things. But the important takeaway, however they arrived at these numbers, is that the comparisons used aren't really sensical when you look at the details.Some countries simply can't afford American exports, for instance, while others have no use for them. The idea that a country that can't afford American goods should have astoundingly large tariffs applied to their exports to the US is questionable from the get-go, but it also means the goods they produce, which might be valuable and important for Americans, be they raw materials like food or manufactured goods like car parts, will become more expensive for Americans, either because those Americans have to pay a higher price necessitated by the tax, or because the lower-price supplier is forced out of the market and replaced by a higher-price alternative.In short, the implied balance of these tariffs don't line up with reality, according to essentially everyone except folks working within Trump's administration, and the question then is what the actual motivation behind them might be.The Occam's Razor answer is that Trump and/or people in his administration simply don't understand tariffs and global economics well enough to understand that their theory on the matter is wrong. And many foreign leaders have said these tariffs are not in any way reciprocal, and that the calculation used to draw them up was, in the words of Germany's economic minister, “nonsense.” That's the general consensus of learned people, and the only folks who seem to be saying otherwise are the one's responsible for drawing these tariffs up, and defending them in the press.Things have been pretty stellar for most of the global economy since free trade became the go-to setup for imports and exports, but this administration is acting as if the opposite is true. That might be a feigned misunderstanding, or it might be genuine; they might truly not understand the difference between how things have been post-WWII and how they were back in the 1800s when tariffs were the go-to method of earning government revenue.But in either case, Trump is promising that rewiring the global order, the nature of default international trade in this way, will be good for Americans because rather than serving as a linchpin for that global setup, keeping things orderly by serving as the biggest market in the world, the American economy will be a behemoth that gets what it's owed, even if at the expense of others—a winner among losers who keep playing because they can't afford not to, rather than a possibly slightly less winning winner amongst other winners.This theory seems to have stemmed from a 1980s understanding of things, which is a cultural and economic milieu from which a lot of Trump's views and ideas seem to have originated, despite in many cases having long since been disproved or shown to be incomplete. But it's also a premise that may be more appealing to very wealthy people, because a lot of the negative consequences from these tariffs will be experienced by people in lower economic classes and people from poorer nations, where the price hikes will be excruciating, and folks in the middle class, whose wealth is primarily kept in stocks. Folks in the higher economic echolons, including those making most of these decisions, tend to make and build their wealth via other means, which won't be entirely unimpacted, but will certainly be less hurt by these moves than everyone else.It's also possible, and this seems more likely to me, but it's of course impossible to know the truth of the matter right now, that Trump is implementing a huge version of his go-to negotiating tactic of basically hurting the folks on the other end of a negotiation in order to establish leverage over them, and then starting that negotiation by asking what they'll do for him if he limits or stops the pain.The US is expected to suffer greatly from these tariffs, but other countries, especially those that rely heavily on the US market as their consumer base, and in some cases for a huge chunk of their economy, their total GDP, will suffer even more.There's a good chance many countries, in public or behind closed doors, will look at the numbers and decide that it makes more sense to give Trump and his administration something big, up front, in exchange for a lessening of these tariffs. That's what seems to be happening with Vietnam, already, and Israel, and there's a good chance other nations have already put out feelers to see what he might want in exchange for some preferential treatment in this regard—early reports suggest at least 50 governments have done exactly that since the announcement, though those reports are coming from within the White House, so it's probably prudent to take them with a grain of salt, at this point. That said, this sort of messaging from the White House suggests that the administration might be hoping for a bunch of US-favoring deals and will therefore make a lot of noise about initial negotiations to signal that that's what they want, and that the pain can go away if everyone just kowtows a little and gestures at some new trade policies that favor the US and make Trump look like a master negotiator who's bringing the world to heel.There's been pushback against this potentiality, however, led by China, which has led with its own, very large counter-tariffs rather than negotiating, and the EU looks like it might do the same. If enough governments do this, it could call Trump's bluff while also making these other entities, perhaps especially China, which was first out the door with counter-tariffs and statements about not be cowed by the US's bluster, seem like the natural successors to the US in terms of global economic leadership. It could result in the US giving away all that soft power, basically, and that in turn could realign global trade relationships and ultimately other sorts of relationships, too, in China's favor.One other commonly cited possibility, and this is maybe the grimmest of the three, but it's not impossible, is that Trump and other people in his administration recognize that the world is changing, that China is ascendent and the US is by some metrics not competing in the way it needs to in order to keep up and retain its dominance, and that's true in terms of things like manufacturing and research, but also the potential implications of AI, changing battlefield tactics, and so on. And from that perspective, it maybe makes sense to just shake the game board, knocking over all the pieces rather than trying to win by adhering to what have become common conventions and normal rules of play.If everyone takes a hit, if there's a global recession or depression and everything is knocked asunder because those variables that led to where we are today, with all their associated pros and cons, are suddenly gone, that might lead to a situation in which the US is hurt, but not as badly as everyone else, including entities like China. And because the US did the game board shaking, the US may thus be in a better position as everything settles back into a new state of affairs; a new state of affairs that Trump and his people want to be more favorable to the US, long-term.There's some logic to this thinking, even if it's a very grim, me-first, zero-sum kind of logic. The US economy is less reliant on global trade than the rest of the G20, the wealthiest countries in the world; only about 25% of its GDP is derived from trade, while that number is 37% for China, 63% for France, and a whopping 88% for Germany.Other nations are in a relatively more vulnerable position than the US in a less-open, more tariff-heavy world, then, and that means the US administration may have them over a barrel, making the aforementioned US-favoring negotiations more likely, but also, again, potentially just hurting everyone, but the US less so. And when I say hurting, I mean some countries losing a huge chunk of their economy overnight, triggering a lot more poverty, maybe stagflation and famines, and possibly even revolutions, as people worldwide experience a shocking and sudden decrease in both wealth and future economic outlook.Already, just days after Trump announced his tariffs, global markets are crashing, with US markets on track to record its second-worst three-day decline in history, after only the crash of 1987—so that's worse than even the crashes that followed 9/11, the Covid-19 pandemic, the debt crisis, and many others.Foreign markets are doing even worse, though, with Hong Kong's recently high-flying Hang Seng falling 13% in trading early this week, and Japan's Nikkei dropping 8%.Other market markers are also dropping, the price of oil falling to a pandemic-era level of $60 per barrel, Bitcoin losing 10% in a day, and even the US dollar, which theoretically should rise in a tariff scenario, dropping 0.1%—which suggests investors are planning for a damaging recession, and the US market and currency as a whole might be toxic for a while; which could, in turn, lead to a boom for the rest of the world, the US missing out on that boom.There are also simpler theories, I should mention, that tariffs may be meant to generate more profits to help pay for Trump's expanded tax cuts without requiring he touch the third-rails of Medicare or Social Security, or that they're meant to address the US's booming debt by causing investors to flee to Treasury bills, which has the knock-on effect of reducing the interest rates that have to be paid on government debt.That flight toward Treasuries is already happening, though it seems to be primarily because investors are fleeing the market as stocks collapse in value and everyone's worrying about their future, about stagflation, and about mass layoffs and unemployment.It may be that all or most of these things are true, too, by the way, and that this jumble of events, pros and cons alike, are seen as a net-positive by this administration.For what it's worth, too, the US Presidency doesn't typically get to set things like tariffs—that's congress' responsibility and right. But because Congress is currently controlled by Republicans, they've yet to push back on these tariffs with a veto, and they may not. There are rumblings within the president's party about this, and a lot of statements about how it'll ultimately be good, but that maybe they would have done things differently, but there hasn't been any real action yet, just hedging. And that could remain the case, but if things get bad enough, they could be forced by their constituents to take concrete action on the matter before Trump's promised, theoretical positive outcomes have the chance to emerge, or not.Show Noteshttps://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20060925_RL33665_4a8c6781ce519caa3e6b82f95c269f73021c5fdf.pdfhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariffhttps://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/03/31/tariffs-affect-consumer-spending/https://www.wsj.com/tech/exempt-or-not-the-chip-industry-wont-escape-tariffs-a6c771dbhttps://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/goldman-sachs-lifts-u-s-recession-probability-to-35-ce285ebchttps://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-am-9d85eb00-1184-11f0-8b11-0da1ebc288e3.htmlhttps://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-democrats-economy-protests-financial-markets-90afa4079acbde1deb223adf070c1e98https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trade-war-explodes-across-world-at-pace-not-seen-in-decades-0b6d6513https://www.mufgamericas.com/sites/default/files/document/2025-04/The-Long-Shadow-of-William-McKinley.pdfhttps://x.com/krishnanrohit/status/1907587352157106292https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/04/business/trump-stocks-tariffs-trade.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/05/opinion/trump-tariffs-theories.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/world/asia/vietnam-trump-tariff-delay.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/world/europe/trade-trump-tariffs-brexit.htmlhttps://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/04/why-do-domestic-prices-rise-with-tarriffs.htmlhttps://www.foxnews.com/politics/how-we-got-liberation-day-look-trumps-past-comments-tariffshttps://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/trumps-tariff-strategy-can-be-traced-back-to-the-1980s/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/12/us/politics/trump-tv-stock-market.htmlhttps://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdfhttps://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/over-50-countries-push-for-tariff-revisions-will-donald-trump-compromise-heres-what-the-white-house-said/articleshow/120043664.cmshttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/business/stock-market-plunge-investment-bank-impact.htmlhttps://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-trump-tariffs-trade-war-04-07-25https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-trump-tariff-foreign-policy-6934e493https://www.wsj.com/economy/in-matter-of-days-outlook-shifts-from-solid-growth-to-recession-risk-027eb2b4https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Asia-Pacific-stocks-sink-from-Trump-s-tariff-barrage-Hong-Kong-down-13https://www.reuters.com/markets/eu-seeks-unity-first-strike-back-trump-tariffs-2025-04-06/https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/04/07/trump-presidency-news-tariffs/https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/07/world/asia/china-trade-war-tariffs.htmlhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-04-07/global-rout-carries-whiff-of-panic-as-trump-holds-fast-on-tariffshttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflationhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/economists-fed-recent-projections-signal-120900777.htmlhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisishttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_stagnation This is a public episode. 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This week we talk about tariffs, consumer confidence, and trade wars.We also discuss inflation, GDP, and uncertainty.Recommended Book: A Brief History of Intelligence by Max S. BennettTranscriptOn January 20, 2025, mere hours after being sworn into his second term in office as President of the United States, Donald Trump announced new 25% tariffs on most incoming goods from Canada and Mexico, accusing the two allies of failing to halt the flow of drugs and illegal migrants into the US. These tariffs would go into effect on February 1, he said, and they would be in addition to existing tariffs that were already in effect for specific import categories.On that same day, he also speculated that he might impose a universal tariff on all imports, saying that he believed all countries, allies or not, were taking advantage of the US, and he didn't like that.Less than a week later, Trump announced that he would impose 25% tariffs on all good from Colombia, with immediate effect, and would double that tariff to 50% within a week. This appears to have been a punishment for the Colombian government's decision to turn back planes full of immigrants the US government deported and sent their way, without approval from the intended recipient of those deported people, the Colombian government. There was a minor tiff between these governments, but the White House declared victory on the matter later that night, saying the tariffs would be held in reserve, implying they could come back at any time if their demands are not met.An executive order implementing the threatened 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico was signed on February 1, and a new 10% tariff on China went into effect the same day. Countermeasures were threatened by everyone involved, and after Trump published a social media post saying there would probably be economic pain for a while, his government agreed to a 30 day pause on tariffs for Mexico and Canada, while also threatening new tariffs against the European Union; another long-time US ally.The new 10% tariff on Chinese imports went into effect on February 4, and China retaliated with its own counter-tariffs on US goods, including things like farm machinery and energy products. It also implemented new restrictions on the export of rare earth minerals to the US—a category of raw materials everyone is scrambling to secure, as they're vital for the production of batteries and other fundamental technologies—and they launched a new antimonopoly investigation into Google, which deals with some Chinese companies.On February 10, Trump reimposed a 25% tariff on all foreign steel and aluminum; a move that made US metal companies happy, but essentially all other US companies very unhappy, and in mid-February he threatened even more, broad, and vague tariffs on basically everyone, saying he's doing what he's doing in order to force companies to move manufacturing infrastructure back to the US, after decades of offshoring everything.At the end of February, Trump said the delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico would go into effect, as planned, on March 4, alongside those new 10% tariffs on China. On that day, Canada implemented its own counter-tariffs on the US to the tune of 25% on about $155 billion of US goods imported by the country.Canada and Mexico send about 80% of their exports to the US market, so their economies are expected to be hit hard by this trade war. China, in contrast, only sends about 15% of its exports to the US, so the impact will be more tempered.These three countries, though, are the US's largest trading partners, collectively accounting for over 40% of US imports and exports. In addition to buying a lot of US goods, they also export the majority of things like oil, beer, copper wire, chocolate, and other goods that the US consumes; and the cost of tariffs are almost always passed on to the end-consumer, so higher tariffs on these sorts of goods mean raised prices on a lot of stuff across the economy.On March 6, after a lot of back-and-forth with US automakers and with the Mexican and Canadian governments, a lot of the tariffs placed on goods from these countries were suspended, the US government denying that their withdrawal had anything to do with the US market, which was suffering in response to this wave of economic disruptions—though many tariffs were kept in place, and Trump said the US would still impose tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports beginning on March 12.On the 12th, the EU and Canada announced a new wave of retaliatory tariffs against the US, though the European side said they would hold off on their implementation of these tariffs, waiting till April 1 to see what happens. The next day, Trump threatened a 200% charge on alcoholic products from the EU in response to their planned 50% tariffs on US whiskey and other products within their borders.At the moment, as of mid-March 2025, a lot of these tariffs are still speculative, as it's generally understood, from Trump's bombastic approach to deal-making and his previous backtracking from these sorts of threats, that many of these tariffs could disappear, announced solely to provide leverage against those Trump wants to squeeze for more concessions and what he considers to be more favorable trade terms. Some of them could become concrete reality, though, and part of the issue here is that it's nearly impossible to know which is which, because there also seems to be a larger effort to rewire the US and global economies by this administration—and that effort, plus the uncertainty caused by tariffs and similar actions, are leading to some pretty severe market upsets within the US, and resultantly around the world, as well.And that's what I'd like to talk about today: the impacts of these tariffs and other actions by this administration, so far, and what might happen next, based on currently available numbers and analysis.—Economies are ridiculously complex systems, and it's impossible to say with 100% certainty what caused what, and to what degree things would be different had some other path been taken by those in control of various regulatory and economic levers.That said, the nonpartisan Tax Foundation has estimated that just those first batch of proposed tariffs by the US government, not including impacts from foreign retaliations, which could be substantial, will reduce US GDP by about 0.4% and reduce total hours worked by the equivalent of 309,000 full-time jobs; so a lot less output, and a lot less overall productivity.That's on top of the estimated 0.2% long-term decrease in US GDP caused by the first Trump administration's tariffs, which were maintained by the subsequent Biden administration.These existing tariffs raised prices in the US and reduced both output and employment, which means the boom the US economy saw under the Biden administration might have been even boomier, had those tariffs been dropped. But now they're more or less locked in, and these new tariffs will probably amplify their effect, near-term and long-term.On top of that, the constant threats and pullbacks and seemingly off-the-cuff decisions to implement what amounts to all sorts of huge-scale taxes on a frenetic array of goods, including luxuries, but also some very fundamental things, like the metals we use to build and manufacture basically everything, is stoking uncertainty throughout the US and global economies.That uncertainty has wide-ranging impacts, but one of the most direct consequences is that consumer sentiment in the US has nose-dived, as ordinary people worry about the combined impacts of tariffs, cuts to government programs, layoffs across government agencies, and new restrictions on immigration, which even ignoring the human element of such things can cause all sorts of issues across industries that rely on immigrant workers to stay afloat.In mid-March of this year, US consumer sentiment hit 57.9, down from 64.7 in February. That's the lowest its been since November of 2022, it's down 27% from a year earlier, and it's a lot lower than economist predictions for this month, which were set at 63.2.Consumer sentiment tells us how people are feeling about the economy, about their potential to earn, and about where things are going. This influences how people spend, how they consume, and that in turn helps determine how the overall economy will go in the coming years, as people will be more likely to hunker down and save, taking as few risks as possible and making fewer purchases if they believe things will be rough; which in some cases can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, because those behaviors tend to shrink the economy, which leads to less output, fewer investments being made, more layoffs, and so on. That means a drop in consumer sentiment can make things bad even if they would otherwise be good, but if they're bad already, they can become even worse because folks stop doing things that would improve the economy, out of self-preservation.And that impact can be just as pronounced when things are weird and wobbly, rather than outright bad, as seems to be the case in the US at the moment.There's no firm evidence that the US economy is destined for a recession at this point, but the Russell 2000 index, which is made up of smaller companies than indexes like the S&P 500, and which is thus more prone to on-the-ground variables than its larger index kin, has dropped more than 16% since November, when it hit a new high on optimism about what the new Trump administration might do for businesses and the economy.The S&P 500 also collapsed, though about half as much, and it rallied somewhat last week as investors bought the dip, scooping up stocks at lower prices following that drop. But there's a lot of speculation that this might be a so-called dead cat bounce recovery—a moment in which a market seems to be recovering from a drop, but where it's actually just bouncing up a little before heading back downward—and even this index, which is packed with corporations that are less susceptible to brief market wobbles than those in the Russell, might be heading for another downswing in the coming weeks, based on a lot of the economic numbers used to predict such things, at the moment.One such metric is interest in alternative assets like gold, and the price of gold hit a new high last Friday, surpassing $3,000 per ounce for the first time ever.That's not something you tend to see when markets are healthy and people expect them to do well; if they are healthy and expected to surge rather than collapse, people tend to put their money in the market, not in shiny metals. But the shiny metals bet seems to be appealing right now, which hints at an even broader suspicion of the US economy than even that consumer sentiment and those bad market figures anticipate.And the market figures have been bad. In just 3 weeks, beginning on February 19, the S&P alone lost more than $5 trillion in value.The Atlanta Fed, which uses a fairly reliable model to predict future US GDP numbers, was predicting a healthy nearly 4% increase for the US's GDP for the first quarter of 2025 back in late-January, early-February, but that prediction plummeted from positive 4% to negative 2.4% by early March.That figure could still change, as it's informed by data that don't all arrive at the same time, but it's still a staggering drop, and it reflects the impact of all these tariffs, but also all the destruction of government programs and agencies, the mass firings, and of course the uncertainty caused by all of these things in aggregate, alongside the impacts of said uncertainty on everyone at all scales, from trade partners to US-based small businesses to individual consumers.So few people and institutions are happy about what's happening right now, but it does look like, in the immediate future, at least, there are some beneficiaries of all this tumult.Markets in China are flourishing, especially Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, which is up more than 20% since Trump's inauguration on January 20. And Europe's market, which has struggled with stasis for years now, is up more than 4% over that same period.Uncertainty about markets, but also military alliances, especially NATO, have pushed Germany—which has struggled since Russia invaded Ukraine, when their energy markets were utterly scrambled, which in turn hobbled their massive manufacturing base—Germany has unleashed a huge amount of government funds on their economy, and that big uptick in spending has helped basically the whole EU market grow. The German government has traditionally been tight-pocketed, but a declaration by the incoming Chancellor that they would do whatever it takes to both defend themselves and boost their economic outlook in the face of unreliable backing from their long-time ally, the US, has bolstered enthusiasm and optimism throughout the region, bringing EU nations closer together, increasing spending on all sorts of fundamentals, and bringing them closer to the Canadian government, as well.The Chinese government has recently indicated they'll be injecting a bunch of money and other types of support in their economy, as well, which creates a stark contrast with the US government, which seems to be refocusing on pulling government resources from across society and the economy, and spending mostly on tax cuts for the wealthiest people and biggest companies, instead.The US government's efforts to go America first, and not do anyone, even its longest-term, most reliable allies, any favors, or even trade in what might be considered a balanced way, thus seems to be scrambling US markets while simultaneously stoking those that are being cut off, unifying aspects of the rest of the world in antagonism against the US, while also providing them with incentive to reinvest in their own markets; which could be good for them long-term, making them less reliant on the US in all sorts of ways, but which seems pretty bad for the US in particular, short-term, and casts the US-dominated global order into disarray for the immediate future, with all sorts of consequences, economic and otherwise.The degree to which this impacts Trump's approval ratings has yet to be seen, as while his approval is collapsing, especially on the economy, right now, a lot of the most serious economic impacts are expected to fall hard on regions that most enthusiastically voted for him, and Republican talking points have already pivoted toward messaging that implies suffering for a while is good and patriotic.That message might succeed and keep people on side even as their investments collapse and tariff-driven inflation hits their bottom-lines, or it might not. But it seems like the administration is ramping up for a version of austerity that doesn't actually reduce the deficit, but instead takes a bunch of money from programs and investments that helped these areas, and moves it to other stuff that mostly helps fund tax cuts for wealthy allies of the administration—and that could come back to bite them, come election season.All of this is also happening in parallel to the many political maneuverings of the administration and its opposition, though, and just recently the Republican-held congress was able to pass a funding bill, moving a lot more authority and control to the White House; so whatever the short-term approval numbers show, none of this seems to be having much of a negative impact on Trump's control of government. That could change, though, over the course of the next year, leading into 2026's midterm election, when the makeup of congress could be influenced by these and similar decisions.Show Noteshttps://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-rise-after-volatile-week-consumer-data-tap-2025-03-14/https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/consumer-confidence-march-2025-drops-trump-trade-e7e0964dhttps://www.axios.com/2025/03/15/economic-indicators-recession-riskhttps://www.cnn.com/2025/03/14/investing/gold-price-today-3000-ounce-intl/index.htmlhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/14/us-stock-market-loses-5-trillion-in-value-in-three-weeks.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/business/russell-2000-bear-market.htmlhttps://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/us/politics/stock-market-correction-trump-tariffs.htmlhttps://www.nfib.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/NFIB-SBET-Report-Feb.-2025.pdfhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/your-money/car-shopping-trump-tariffs-cfpb.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/16/business/trump-sp-500-stocks-europe-china.htmlhttps://archive.ph/GNPRfhttps://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/issues/economyhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/15/business/economy/tariffs-trump-maps-voters.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/15/us/politics/trump-spending-bill-government-shutdown.htmlhttps://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/investing-stocks-risk-strategies-trump-policies-c4a5d3d9https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/trump-trade-tariffs-us-dollar-value-814cbe37https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-nasdaq-sp500-03-17-2025https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/16/wall-street-hoped-scott-bessent-would-keep-trump-in-check-he-had-other-ideas-00231771https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-mergers-acquisitions-ipos-hiring-slumps-trump-tariffs-2025-3https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/14/trump-trade-wars-consumer-sentiment-00230833https://archive.ph/fUKPshttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/13/business/economy/trump-tariff-timeline.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/business/energy-environment/trump-energy-oil-gas.htmlhttps://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/ This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit letsknowthings.substack.com/subscribe