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S&P futures are pointing lower, down (1.2%). European equity markets are lower, near worse levels. Asian equities are broadly weaker with Hang Seng leading China markets lower. Japan, Korea and Australia all in negative territory. Overnight, treasury yields were mixed, with 2-year down 1 bp and 10-year up 7 bps to 4.5%. Dollar is weaker across the board. Gold has been rebounding after posting worst week since mid twenty twenty one. Crude and copper tracking equity market declines. Bitcoin erased earlier gain. Moody's downgraded US credit rating late Friday, citing growth in government debt and projected widening of deficits if tax cuts are extended. Downgrade plays into market's longstanding deficit concerns driven by Trump policy agenda that have contributed to upward rise in long-term yields and term premium widening to highest since 2014Companies mentioned: NVIDIA, Assura, BT Group

S&P futures are pointing to a flat open, up 0.1%. European equity markets are mostly weaker, with the STOXX 600 down 0.2%. Asian equities had a mixed session, with the Hang Seng rebounding sharply, while Japan and Australia saw losses. The U.S. Commerce Department announced a revision of AI chip export rules, rescinding regulations that were set to take effect in May due to concerns over stifling innovation, regulatory burdens, and strained diplomatic ties. Companies Mentioned: Tesla, TXO Partners

Wall St closed mostly higher again on Tuesday as soft inflation data and progress on the trade talk front continue to boost investor sentiment. The S&P500 rose 0.72%, the Nasdaq gained 1.61% and the Dow Jones fell 0.64% as United Health declined 17% to pressure the benchmark index. US CPI data for April came in at an increase of 2.3% on an annual basis which was lower than economists' were expecting and indicate the US inflation journey remains under control despite fears of tariffs boosting CPI.In Europe overnight, markets in the region closed slightly higher as uncertainty over global trade outlook remains positive amid China and the US agreeing to a temporary deal. The STOXX 600 rose 0.07%, Germany's DAX added 0.23% to close at another fresh record high, the French CAC gained 0.3%, and, in the UK, the FTSE 100 ended the day flat.Across the Asia region on Tuesday, markets closed mixed as investor outlook beyond the 90-day US China tariff deal remains uncertain. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.87%, China's CSI index rose 0.15%, India's Nifty 50 fell 1.27% and Japan's Nikkei ended the day down 1.43%.The local market hit an 11-week high yesterday, ending Tuesday's session up 0.43%, taking lead from the global market rally on Monday as investors welcomed the latest deal tariff between China and the US.With the outlook for lower tariffs on imports into the US from China and vice versa, investors regained appetite for risk and growth stocks, while investors sold out of safe-haven assets like the banks and gold.Mining giants recovered yesterday with the rising price of oil and iron ore fuelling investor appetite for BHP (ASX:BHP), Woodside (ASX:WDS), Rio (ASX:RIO) and Santos (ASX:STO).Location tracking tech giant Life 360 (ASX:360) soared over 10% yesterday after releasing record Q1 results including a 33% increase in total subscription revenue to US$81.9m, a 32% increase in total revenue to US$103.6m and positive operating cash flow of US$12.1m, up 13% YoY, and the company ended the quarter with cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash of US$170.4m. What to watch todayOn the commodities front this morning oil is trading 2.76% higher at US$63.66/barrel, gold is up 0.41% at US$3249/ounce and iron ore is up 1.22% at US$99.75/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback overnight to buy 64.76 US cents, 95.50 Japanese Yen, 48.69 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.Ahead of the midweek trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.22%. Before the bell this morning CBA (ASX:CBA) released its Q3 trading update including cash profit for the quarter of $2.6bn which is flat on 1H25 quarterly average and up 6% on the PCP, while operating income rose 1% and operating expenses also rose 1%. Net interest income for the big bank rose 1% while the net interest margin was stable.Trading ideas:Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on JB Hi-Fi (ASX:JBH) following the release of the company's Q3 trading update including sales up 6% on the PCP, while outlook for Q4 remains strong and the company remains as one of the most productive retailers globally.And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on AMP (ASX:AMP) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 50-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $1.32 to the range of $1.56 to $1.62 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street started the new trading week significantly higher as investors welcomed the temporary progress in trade talks between China and the US. The Dow Jones rose 2.81%, the S&P500 climbed 3.26% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day up 4.35%. Shares in companies that rely on production and supply chain elements from China like Tesla, Apple and Nvidia had investors buying in on Monday with each rising over 5%.The latest update from the China and US trade talks is that both nations have agreed to cut their respective tariffs on one another for 90-days, with tariffs on Chinese imported goods into the US to be 30% and tariffs on US good into China to be 10% for the period.In Europe overnight, markets also closed higher in the region as global investors welcomed progress on the global trade front. The STOXX 600 rose 1.1%, Germany's DAX climbed 0.2% to another fresh record high, the French CAC added 1.4% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.6%.Across the APAC region on Monday, markets rallied after the US and China temporary trade deal was unveiled. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 2.98%, China's CSI index climbed 1.16%, India's Nifty 50 gained 3.5%, and Japan's Nikkei ended the day up 0.38%.Locally to start the week, the ASX200 posted a 0.03% rise to start the new trading week as weakness among pharmaceutical stocks weighed on strong gains for the big miners amid progress in talks between China and the US.Trump's latest pharmaceutical tariff announcement hit locally listed healthcare providers hard this week with Botanix, Neuren, Telix and Clarity all dropping over 5% on Monday. Trump's latest move in the healthcare space is that he wants to cut the price of prescription drugs which will in-turn hurt the margins made by any pharmaceutical producer selling their treatments in the US.As progress talks between the US and China continue to make headway, safe-haven stocks were on the chopping block yesterday as market uncertainty begins to ease. Gold stocks retreated with Evolution Mining, Northern Star Resources and Genesis Minerals each fell over 3%.What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 1.61% higher at US$62/barrel, gold is down 2.65% at US$3236/ounce and iron ore is up 1.22% at US$99.75/tonne.The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback overnight to buy 63.70 US cents, 94.53 Japanese Yen, 48.57 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.Ahead of Tuesday's trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 1.17% tracking global market strength overnight. Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has raised the 12-month price target on REA Group (ASX:REA) from $264 to $267 and maintain a buy rating on the leading online real estate platform following the release of the company's Q3 update including double-digit revenue growth, and strong yield growth which is set to continue amid the rate cut outlook.Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Technology One (ASX:TNE) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 25-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $31.62 to the range of $23.25 to $24.75 according to standard principles of technical analysis. 

Wall St had a negative end to the week last week as investors awaited clarity on US-China trade talks and the Fed held the US cash rate steady amid outlook for tariff implications sparking an inflationary rebound in the world's largest economy. The Dow Jones fell 0.3%, the S&P500 lost 0.07% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day flat.This morning, Trump has declared great progress after high-level trade talks began with China over the weekend, with the US president claiming the meeting as a ‘total reset' in the trade war which positions the markets for a strong start to the new trading week.In Europe on Friday, markets closed higher as investors hold high hopes of a positive outcome from the US and China's trade negotiations. The STOXX 600 rose 0.44%, Germany's DAX closed at a record high up 0.63%, the French CAC rose 0.64% and, in the UK, the FTSE 100 ended the day up 0.3%.Across the Asia region on Friday, markets closed mixed as investors digested the latest economic data out of China and awaited key trade talks between the US and China over the weekend. Japan's Nikkei rose 1.56% on Friday, China's CSI index fell 0.17%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.4% and South Korea's Kospi index ended the day up 0.09%.Locally to end the week, the ASX 200 ended the week with a positive session on Friday as the key index rose 0.48% boosted by a strong tech and financial rally, but for the week the ASX 200 posted a slight decline of 0.08%. Healthcare stocks took the biggest hit over the last 5-trading days as investors fled the sector over concerns of Trump's pharmaceuticals tariffs set to be rolled out over the coming weeks.Liontown Resources soared 195 on Friday after the lithium producer released 2-key trading updates this week that were well received by investors, despite the spot price of lithium carbonate sinking to a four-year low this week.And Chrysos Corporation soared almost 18% on Friday after signing an agreement with gold production giant Newmont Corporation that will see Chrysos' PhotonAssay technology used for Newmont's gold mining projects.What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.67% higher at US$61.43/barrel, gold is down 1.3% at US$3282/ounce and iron ore is up 0.33% at US$98.55/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback to buy 64.29 US cents, 93.79 Japanese Yen, 48.57 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 9 cents.Ahead of the first trading session of the new week, the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.19% amid positive sentiment from progress on the global trade war front.Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has increased the rating on Catalyst Metals from a hold to a buy and have raised the 12-month price target on the gold producer following the acquisition of the Old Highway gold project for $32.5m cash from Sandfire Resources. With 2.1 million tonnes at 3g/t containing 206koz gold, and a higher-grade underground component, the project adds significant upside to Catalysts' portfolio and value.Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Super Retail Group following the formation of a pattern over a period of 45-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $14.14 to the range of $15.10 to $15.40 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

In the US on Tuesday, Wall St continued its sell-off as investors await further clarity on the global trade and tariff front. The Dow Jones fell 0.95%, the S&P500 lost 0.77% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day down 0.87%. Tesla shares came off 1.8% on Tuesday after the company's new car sales in Britain and Germany fell to their lowest in more than two years last month despite growing consumer demand for electric vehicles.In Europe overnight, markets in the region closed mostly lower as investors continue to monitor corporate earnings results and uncertainty around the US trade outlook. The STOXX 600 fell 0.18%, Germany's DAX lost 0.4%, the French CAC fell 0.4% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up just 0.01%.Across Asia on Tuesday, markets closed mixed as investors in the region continue to assess the unfolding trade situation between the US and key trade partners like China. China's CSI index rose 1.01%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.7%, India's Nifty 50 fell 0.3%, and Japan's Nikkei was closed for a public holiday.The local market started the new trading week with a sell-off that ended a 7-day winning streak for the ASX200 after key trading updates and uncertainty around tariffs and trade deals weighed on investor sentiment. On Tuesday the key index ended the day down 0.1% as healthcare and the banking stocks weighed on the key index.An increasing amount of locally listed companies have been updating the market with tariff implication expectations and unclear outlook notes that have increased investor panic in recent days. Wisetech Global (ASX:WTC) fell over 2.5% after warning of potential demand risks from tariffs as the latest company to report uncertain outlook.Tabcorp (ASX:TAH) bucked the volatility yesterday with a rise of 9% after the gaming and wagering company announced the wagering market remains strong with a modest improvement to the turnover trend in the wagering market, indicating consumer demand remains strong despite broader volatility.What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning oil has rebounded to trade 3.3% higher at US$59/barrel, gold is up 2.46% at US$3416/ounce and iron ore is down 0.8% at US$97.41/tonne.The Aussie dollar has further strengthened against the greenback to buy 64.94 US cents, 92.51 Japanese Yen, 48.33 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.Ahead of the midweek trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.38% tracking Wall Street's losses overnight.Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Platinum Asset Management (ASX:PTM) from a hold to a sell after the funds manager released April's results including FUM falling $629m or 6.1% to $9.647bn.And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Lovisa (ASX:LOV) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 21-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $24.85 to the range of $19 - $20 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St started the new trading week lower, with the S&P500 snapping a 9-day winning streak as investors continue to monitor the latest global trade developments. The S&P500 fell 0.64%, the Nasdaq lost 0.74% and the Dow Jones ended the day down 0.24%. Sentiment slightly rose after a report outlined that India has proposed zero tariffs on steel, auto components and pharmaceuticals, while investors still remain cautious about the timeline and exact scope of tariff agreements between the US and key trade partners.In Europe overnight markets in the region closed mixed as investors look ahead to key economic data out in the region. The STOXX 600 rose 0.16%, Germany's DAX climbed 1.1%, the French CAC fell 0.55% and, in the UK, the FTSE 100 was closed for a holiday.Across the Asia region on Monday, markets rose after China said it was evaluating possible trade talks with the US as the ongoing tariff war continues to unfold. China's markets were closed for a public holiday while Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.74%, Japan's Nikkei added 1.04%, India's Nifty 50 climbed 0.21% and South Korea's Kospi Index ended the day up 0.12%.Locally to start the new week, the ASX200 fell 1% to snap a 7-day winning streak as weaker-than-expected results out of Westpac weighed on the financial sector and dented overall investor sentiment.Westpac (ASX:WBC) kicked off the results release for the big banks with first half profit sliding 1% on 1H24 amid rising geopolitical risks and a highly competitive mortgage market. The bank's net interest margin, where most of profits are made, also fell 1bps to 1.88%. On release of the results WBC shares fell over 2% while all big bank stocks also retreated on Monday.Gold Road Resources (ASX:GOR) climbed almost 10% on Monday after coming out of a trading halt and addressing speculation it had received a takeover and entered into a takeover offer with Gruyere Holdings to acquire 100% of issued and outstanding shares in Gold Road by way of a scheme of arrangement valuing Gold Road at around $3.7bn. What to watch today: On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 1.88% lower at US$57.19/barrel, gold is up 2.87% at US$3332/ounce and iron ore is down 0.8% at US$97.41/tonne.The Aussie dollar has further strengthened against the greenback to buy 64.66 US cents, 92.94 Japanese Yen, 48.76 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.Ahead of Tuesday's trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 0.26% extending on yesterday's losses. Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has reduced the 12-month price target on Chrysos Corporation (ASX:C79) from $4.70 to $4.40 and maintain a hold rating on the global mining assay service provider following the release of the company's May 2025 trading update including revenue beating BPe for the latest quarter, and 5 units being deployed with revenues expected to start generating from these units by the end of FY25. The slight downgrade of the price target is due to recent contract wins outpacing deployment and revenue tracking at the lower end of the guidance range.And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Light & Wonder (ASX:LNW) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 22-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $142.03 to the range of $156 to $160 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St ended the last trading week on a high after better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data for April eased recession fears and lifted the S&P500 to its longest winning streak in over 2-decades. The S&P500 gained 1.5% on Friday, the Dow Jones rose 1.4% and the Nasdaq ended the day up 1.51%. Payrolls in the US grew by 177,000 in April, well above the 133,000 economists were expecting in a sign the labour market remains strong despite recession fears amid the Trump tariff turmoil.Across the European region on Friday, markets closed higher on better-than-expected economic data and on trade war de-escalation between China and the US. The STOXX 600 rose 1.7%, Germany's DAX added 2.62%, France's CAC rose 2.33% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 1.17%.Asia markets ended the week in the green as trade talks between China and the US continue to make progress. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.74%, India's Nifty 50 rose 0.21%, Japan's Nikkei added 1.04%, and South Korea's Kospi Index ended the day up 0.12%.Locally on Friday, the ASX200 ended the week on a high a gain of 1.1% boosted by strength among tech stocks following a strong night for the Nasdaq on Thursday night despite gloomy earnings out of Amazon, Block and Apple.Corporate Travel Management (ASX:CTD) tumbled 9.2% on Friday after saying it expects to report lower revenue and earnings growth due to the initial impact of tariffs on client demand, while Block sank 25.9% after the digital payments provider lowered its full year guidance. What to watch today:On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 3.6% lower at US$56.24/barrel, gold is up 0.14% at US$3244/ounce and iron ore is down 1.07% at US$98.19/tonne.The Aussie dollar has further strengthened against the greenback to buy 64.53 US cents, 93.38 Japanese Yen, 48.56 British Pence, and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.Ahead of Monday's trading session, the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.4% to extend on last week's gains.Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has raised the 12-month price target on Woolworths Group (ASX:WOW) from $30.75 to $31.85 and maintain a hold rating on the supermarket giant following the release of the company's Q3 results including 3.2% YoY sales growth on a group level, while Australian food revenues rose 3.6% and Australian B2B business revenues rose 6.4%. NZ food sales rose just 1.8% YoY and W Living sales fell 2.6% YoY. The reason for the maintenance of the hold rating is that Woolworths is currently trading on a multiple consistent to Coles and the analyst feels it is difficult to see the catalyst to return the rating to a premium compared to Coles at present.And Bell Potter has reduced the rating on SGH (ASX:SGH) from a buy to a hold and have reduced the 12-month price target on the company from $57 to $54.50 following a mixed outlook in the company's operating divisions. While equipment orders are lifting, aggregate prices are falling and the construction market remains flat in recent months. Trading on a 20.3x FY26 PE, the analyst believes SGH is currently fairly valued.

Wall St closed mixed on Wednesday following the release of US GDP data for Q1 that indicated economic contraction of 0.3% QoQ which is well below the 2.4% expansion reported in Q4 and below economists' expectations of a 0.5% rise in GDP for the latest reading. The slide in GDP enhanced investor fears of a US recession which impacted equities on Wednesday. The Dow Jones rose 0.35%, and the S&P500 gained 0.15% but the Nasdaq ended the day down 0.09%. Consumer confidence, JOLTs Job Openings and the personal spending index all in the US were also released for the latest period overnight with each coming in poorer than economists' were expecting.European markets closed higher on Wednesday as investors reacted to worse-than-expected economic data out of the US. The STOXX 600 rose 0.46%, Germany's DAX gained 0.32%, the French CAC added 0.32% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.37%Asia Markets closed mixed on Wednesday as investors digested an array of key economic data out in the region and ahead of the Bank of Japan's rate meeting kicking off. Japan's Nikkei rose 0.57%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.51%, and China's CSI index fell 0.12% after China's manufacturing activity dropped more than expected in April to enter contraction territory.Locally on Wednesday, the ASX extended its rally into the midweek session with a gain of 0.7% taking lead from Wall Street's strength on Tuesday. Real estate stocks led the gains on Wednesday while other rate sensitive sectors like Tech and consumer discretionary stocks posted notable gains.Australia's latest inflation reading for the March Quarter was released yesterday with monthly inflation rising 0.9% while the annual rate remained at 2.4%. Trimmed mean inflation fell to 2.8% in the quarter which is now back within the RBA's target 2-3% range. Markets are expecting a 62% chance of a rate cut to be announced at the next RBA meeting in May prior to the CPI reading release yesterday.Gold producer Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) extended its sell-off yesterday after the gold giant lowered its output guidance for FY25, while Ora Banda (ASX:OBM) also tumbled over 6% after also lowering full-year production guidance.What to watch today:Ahead of Thursday's trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the first session of the new trading month down 0.34% following Wall Street's turbulence overnight.On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 3.42% lower at US$58.35/barrel, gold is down 1.13% at US$3279/ounce and iron ore is down 0.1% at US$99.76/tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback overnight to buy 64.08 US cents, 91.62 Japanese Yen, 47.61 British Pence and NZ$1.08.Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Regis Resources (ASX:RRL) from a buy to a hold and have raised the 12-month price target to $4.57 on the gold producer following the release of the company's March quarter report which beat BPe on production and costs. The downgrade to a hold is simply due to recent share price appreciation.Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Autosports Group (ASX:ASG) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 97-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $1.94 to the range of $2.11 to $2.17 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

S&P futures are pointing to a softer open, down (0.2%), as investors brace for a heavy slate of corporate earnings. European equities are firmer in early trades, extending recent rallies. Meanwhile, Asian equities were mixed, with Japan and Australia logging small gains, while the Hang Seng edged higher after paring early losses. The Shanghai Composite and South Korea's Kospi both finished lower. Companies Mentioned: Blackstone, JetBlue, United Airlines, Sunnova Energy

The recent rally on Wall St extended into Tuesday's session as investor optimism was boosted by the White House saying a major trade deal is close to being announced. The S&P500 rose 0.58% to notch a 6th straight winning session, while the Dow Jones rallied 0.75% to also post a 6th straight winning day, and the Nasdaq ended the day up 0.55%.In Europe overnight, it was a sea of green as investors responded to corporate results out in the region including Lufthansa posting a revenue beat, Deutsche Bank reporting a 39% rise in first-quarter profit and HSBC topping profit expectations. The STOXX 600 rose 0.4%, Germany's DAX added 0.1%, the French CAC gained 0.8% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.6%.Across the Asia region on Tuesday, markets closed mixed as investors assessed corporate earnings results and Trump's move to reduce automotive tariffs. China's CSI index ended down 0.17%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.16% and South Korea's Kospi index ended the day with a gain of 0.65%.The local market started the new trading week in positive territory with the ASX200 hitting a 2-month high to end Tuesday's session up 0.9%. Trump's tariff concerns remain in the background of investor concerns right now but are being overlooked ahead of the all-important local inflation reading out today and ahead of the RBA's anticipated rate cut to come in May. Yesterday we had further clarity out of the US that negotiation talks on tariffs between China and the US are progressing and Trump reduced the tariff he recently imposed on automotive sales.The recent uranium stock rally extended yesterday as the price of the commodity rose 0.6% to US$67/pound, but more of the gains can be explained by Boss Energy's (ASX:BOE) driving force after the uranium producer reported its first quarter of free cash flow generation and that output and costs had met or beat expectations. Boss Energy rose over 14% on Tuesday, Deep Yellow (ASX:DYL) gained 11.71%% and Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN) ended the day up 8.5%.Elsewhere in the mining space, Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN) surged over 12% on Tuesday despite releasing a quarterly update including iron ore output guidance slashed again and the company burnt through $300m of cash in the quarter.What to watch todayOn the commodities front:Oil is down 2.64% at US$60.41/barrel, gold is down 0.6% at US$3317.80/ounce and iron ore is flat at US$99.91/tonne.The Aussie dollar is buying 63.86 US cents, 90.90 Japanese Yen, 47.86 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.Ahead of the midweek trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.35% tracking global market gains overnight.Also today we will receive the latest March quarter inflation reading with the market forecasting an uptick of 0.8% in the reading, which will indicate inflation continues to ease and provides the RBA with further support for a rate cut at the next meeting in May.Trading IdeasBell Potter has downgraded the rating on Catalyst Metals (ASX:CYL) from a buy to a hold and have raised the 12-month price target on the gold production and development company following the release of the company's Q3 results including total gold production of 24.3koz at AISC of A$2765/ounce. With growth on the horizon, the downgrade to a hold is simply on the grounds of current valuation of the company being within the Bell Potter hold criteria.And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Perenti (ASX:PRN)following the formation of a pattern over a period of 40-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $1.38 to the range of $1.58 to $1.62 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

S&P futures are pointing to a higher open, up +0.2% as market sentiment is buoyed by optimism over potential relief on U.S. auto tariffs. Asian equities were mixed, with solid gains in Australia and South Korea, while Greater China markets and the Hang Seng edged lower. European equities are mostly higher, with the STOXX 600 up +0.2% and German DAX up +0.5%. Market focus has shifted to corporate earnings and significant economic data releases. S&P 500 Q1 earnings are expected to show solid growth, but forward guidance has been largely negative. Earnings and macro data remain centered on the impacts of tariffs.Companies Mentioned: Amazon, Ford, Flotek Industries

Wall St closed higher on Friday as investors continue to navigate the evolving situation on a global trade front while the big tech names got a welcome boost following a sell-off in recent times. The S&P500 rose 0.74% on Friday for a fourth straight winning session while the Nasdaq gained 1.26% and the Dow Jones ended the day up 0.05%.Over in Europe on Friday, markets closed higher as earnings reports out in the region were well-received by investors despite ongoing trade uncertainty. The STOXX 600 rose 0.35%, Germany's DAX added 0.8%, the French CAC added 0.45%, and in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.1%.Across the Asia region to end the week markets closed mostly higher as investors continue to assess the possibility of easing trade war tensions between China and the US. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.24%, China's CSI index closed flat, Japan's Nikkei rose 1.9% and South Korea's Kospi index ended the day up 0.95%.Locally on Thursday the ASX200 rose 0.6% to end the holiday shortened trading week up 2.3% as investor optimism around a rate cut out of the RBA in May boosted investor sentiment. While Trump's tariff moves continue to weigh on investor sentiment, we are seeing certain companies rally from exemptions like ResMed (ASX:RMD) soaring 8.5% on Thursday after revealing its sleep apnoea devices have received an exemption from Trump's tariffs. Uranium miners also rallied on Thursday with Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN) jumping 12% after announcing record production at its Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia.What to watch todayAhead of Monday's trading session in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day just 0.02% higher.On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.71% higher at US$63.44/barrel, gold is down 0.26% at US$3311/ounce and iron ore is down 0.06% at US$99.92/tonne.The Aussie dollar has further strengthened against the greenback to buy US$0.64, 91.93 Japanese Yen, 48.10 British Pence and NZ$1.07.Trading IdeasBell Potter has slightly reduced the 12-month price target on Seek (ASX:SEK) from $27.00 to $25.80 and maintain a buy rating on Australia's leading online jobs advertisement platform following a mixed month of jobs report for March. For the month, Seek's employment report for Australia outlined an accelerating decline for job ads, down 12.8% YoY on platform and the ABS' internet job ad vacancy index also worsened for March, down 16.3%. Despite the weakness in the ABS data, Seek is significantly outperforming ABS data.And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Autosports Group (ASX:ASG) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 55-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $1.83 to the range of $2.00 to $2.06 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

US equities are mostly higher with S&P and TSX futures pointing up. US 2-year yield stays at 3.8% and 10-year down 5 bps to 4.4%. Gold finished down 2.6%, bitcoin futures was up and WTI crude settled up 1.4%. European equity markets are firmer, follows broad strength in Asia, with decent gains for Nikkei and Hang Seng. Attention to the White House, President Trump said he never intended to fire Fed Chair Powell. He repeated his criticisms of Powell and said that he'd like him to be more active in terms of lowering interest rates, but that even if Powell doesn't, it would not result in his termination. Sell-side firms warned firing Powell risked inviting fresh market turbulence though there was also lingering scepticism that Trump would carry out threat to remove Powell given financial repercussions that would follow.Companies mentioned: Voyager Acquisition, VERAXA, Fonterra Co-operative Group, Intel

US equities are mostly lower with S&P futures pointing down 1.49%. US 2-year yield is steady at 3.8% and 10-year down 5 bps to 4.3%. Gold extends to new record high, bitcoin futures down and WTI crude settled slightly down. Both Asian and European equity markets are lower. Hang Seng underperformed and Taiwan was sharply down. China, Japan and South Korea were also weaker. European indices are pointing down around 1%. White House formally launched national security probes into pharmaceuticals and semis, paving the way for new sectoral tariffs. However, move had been widely telegraphed and market has seemingly been more focused on recent off-ramps. In addition, with US and Japan set to talk trade this week, some thoughts bar for early deals with key allies may be low. Companies mentioned: Datagroup, SPX Technologies, NVIDIA Corp, ASML Holdings

Wall St closed modestly lower on Tuesday as investors shifted focus from tariffs to first quarter earnings results. The Dow Jones lost 0.38%, the S&P500 fell 0.17% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day down 0.05%. Bank of America rose 3.6% yesterday after exceeding analysts' expectations for Q1 results, while Untied Airlines and Netflix are also expected to report this week. Boeing shares fell more than 2% though on Tuesday on reports that Beijing ordered Chinese airlines not to take anymore of the company's planes.In Europe overnight, markets in the region rose amid investor optimism of further tariff exemptions to come from the White House. The STOXX 600 rose 1.6%, Germany's DAX added 1.3%, the French CAC gained 0.9% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 1.5%.Across the Asia region on Tuesday, markets mostly rose in the region as a tech rally boosted investor sentiment. Japan's Nikkei rose 0.84%, South Korea's Kospi Index gained 0.88%, India's Nifty 50 rose 2.18% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng ended the day up 0.23%.The local market rallied for a second session on Tuesday with a gain of 0.17% after a day of relative calm with minimal news on the tariff front out of the White House. Investors increasingly sought out defensive stocks on Tuesday with CSL and CBA rising 2.56% and 0.87% respectively.The high growth tech sector came under pressure on Tuesday despite strength on the Nasdaq on Monday and Trump's exemption of key tech tariffs. KFC Australia operator Collins Food Group fell over 7.7% on Tuesday after announcing the results of its strategic review including the exiting of its Taco Bell operations in Australia and further expansion of KFC into Germany.Accent Group on the other hand rallied over 4.5% after announcing it will launch and operate leading global sports retailing business, Sports Direct to Australia and New Zealand. The leading Australian retailer also announced a long-term strategic relationship with Frasers Group, a global retailer of sports, premium and luxury brands based in London, with Frasers also increasing its stake in Accent Group to 19.57%.What to watch today:The Aussie dollar has further strengthened against the greenback to buy 63.48 US cents, 90.82 Japanese Yen, 48.08 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.33% lower at US$61.32/barrel, gold is up 0.5% at US$3227.51/ounce and iron ore is up 0.13% at US$100.08/tonne. Ahead of the midweek trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down just 0.04% Trading Idea.s:Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN) from a buy to a hold and have raised the 12-month price target on the gold and copper miner from $7.89 to $8.10 following the release of the company's March quarter report which came in strong as Bell Potter was expecting. The downgrade to a hold simply follows recent share price appreciation.Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Universal Stores (ASX:UNI) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 38-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $7.46 to the range of $10.10 to $10.70 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

S&P futures and TSX are pointing slightly up. Asian equities inched higher in cautious trade with a 0.8% surge in Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai are slightly up with India leading the gainers as its banks and auto stocks rallied on tariff reprieve news. European equity markets are mostly higher, with major indices up near 1%. Overnight, US 10-year yield was steady at 4.4% with the 2-year up 1 bP to 3.9%. US dollar unchanged, AUD higher, NZD at four-month high, yen and yuan flat. Oil went up and gold firmer. Crude futures are slightly higher, precious metals are also resuming their upward trend, base metals are mixed. Cryptocurrencies are higher.Companies mentioned: Apple, Lowe's Companies, Ryanair Holdings, NVIDIA Corp

President Trump outlines tariff exemptions including smartphones, chips and other tech components but U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says the move is only temporary. The tech sector rallies in Asia with the Hang Seng leading gains. Chinese exports surge more than 12 per cent in March. President Xi Jinping slams the trade was with the U.S., saying that protectionism has ‘no way out'. The founder of Bridgewater Associates Ray Dalio tells NBC News tariffs and a falling dollar could signal a potentially serious economic downturn.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Wall Street ended the rollercoaster week of last week in the green on Friday after possibly the most volatile week in NYSE history as investors responded live to Trumps tariff updates as they were announced. The Dow Jones rose 1.56%, the S&P500 rose 1.81% and the Nasdaq ended the last trading session of the week up 2.06%. The rise in investor optimism on Friday was due to the White House remaining optimistic a deal on tariffs would be done with China. Let's hope for some more clarity and calm on global markets this week.In Europe on Friday markets in the region closed mostly lower to round off a choppy week for stocks in the Eurozone. The STOXX 600 fell 0.1%, Germany's DAX fell 0.9%, the French CAC dropped 0.3%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.64%.Across the Asia region on Friday markets closed mixed as investors assessed escalating trade wars with the US. Japan's Nikkei lost almost 3%, South Korea's Kospi index fell 0.5%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.13% and China's CSI index ended the day up 0.41%.Locally on Friday the ASX200 fell 0.82% with every sector aside from consumer discretionary stocks ending the day in the red, with healthcare taking the biggest hit amid Trump's latest tariff announcement on producers in the sector. For the week, the ASX200 lost just 0.28% despite the extreme highs and lows of the trading week.What to watch today:Gold miners rallied last week as the price of the precious commodity topped US$3200/ounce for the first time later in the week.On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 2.38% higher at US$61.50/barrel, gold is up 1.5% at US$3236.55/ounce and iron ore is up just 0.06% at US$99.95/tonne.The Aussie dollar has slightly improved against most currencies to buy 62.86 US cents, 90.64 Japanese Yen, 49.03 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.Ahead of Monday's trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.23%.This week will be interesting on the tariffs front as we ended last week with Trump raising total tariffs on China to 145% but backtracked on electronics and certain imports that support large caps like Apple.Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) from a hold to a sell as the analyst believes valuation has been overextended and the current share price prices in optimistic expectations. The analyst still believes Lynas is a high-quality business with viable growth options and a strong management team.Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Waypoint REIT (ASX:WPR) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 90-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price will rise from the close of $2.50 to the range of $2.65 to $2.69 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street started the new trading week in the green as investors welcomed the latest tariff exemption from Trump in the form of smartphones and computers in addition to other devices and components like semiconductors. The Dow Jones rose 0.78% on Monday, the S&P500 gained 0.79% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day up 0.64%. While the tariff exemption is welcome right now, Trump teased on Sunday that the exemptions are not permanent, i.e. the Trump tariff rollercoaster continues.In Europe on Monday, markets closed higher as Trump exemptions boosted investor sentiment, temporarily. The STOXX 600 rose 2.7%, Germany's DAX gained 2.6%, the French CAC added 2.4% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 2.4%.Across Asia to start the week, markets in the region rallied as investor appetite for growth and tech stocks rose on Trump's latest exemption announcement. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 2.4%, China's CSI index added 0.23%, Japan's Nikkei rose 1.18%, and South Korea's Kospi Index ended the day up 0.95%.Locally on Monday, the ASX200 started the new trading week with a significant rise of 1.3% as investors hold high hopes tariff relief after President Trump began scaling back some tariffs in recent days. Mining stocks regained momentum yesterday with the materials sector rising %, while 10 of the 11 sectors ended the day in the green.Neuren Pharmaceuticals soared 21% yesterday after the drug maker announced the US FDA has approved the outcomes of a key trial of the company's second drug candidate for the treatment of Phelan-McDermid Syndrome in Children, which paves the way for the company's final US FDA approval of the drug before it hits the market.Gold miners are again drawing investor attention as the price of the precious commodity rallied to yet another fresh record high on Monday and UBS lifted its gold price forecast for the second time in a week, this time to an average of US$3500/ounce in 2026.On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.18% higher at US$61.61/barrel, gold is down 0.74% at US$3212.46/ounce and iron ore is up just 0.06% at US$99.95/tonne.What to watch today:The Aussie dollar has further strengthened against the greenback overnight to buy 63.24 US cents, 90.50 Japanese Yen, 48.11 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.Ahead of Tuesday's trading session here in Australia, the SPI Futures are anticipating the local market will open the day up 0.23% tracking global market gains overnight.Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has raised the 12-month price target on De Grey Mining (ASX:DEG) from $1.97 to $2.58 and maintain a hold rating on the gold exploration and development company after Gold Road Resources announced its intention to vote in favour of the proposed all-scrip acquisition of DEG by Northern Star, as Gold Road Resources has an approximate 17.3% stake in DEG.Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on SRG Global (ASX:SRG) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 21-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $1.25 to the range of $1.38 to $1.42 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Verlustreicher Wochenstart bei DAX, Dow & Hang-Seng! Mit der Verschärfung des Handelskonflikts haben die Börsen rund um den Globus ihre Verlustserie weiter fortgesetzt. Warum es den chinesischen Aktienmarkt überproportional erwischt und warum der Konflikt zu einer Unzeit kommt diskutieren Andreas Lipkow (Finanzmarkt-Experte comdirect) und Cornelia Frey (Senior Communication Manager Boerse Stuttgart Group) im Gespräch. Sie blicken zudem auf die “Terrific 10” und gehen der Frage nach, inwieweit KI der Gamechanger für die chinesischen Tech-Aktien werden könnte.

S&P 500 was slightly up 0.04%. Asian equity markets were under pressure on Wednesday, with Japan and Taiwan performance particularly weak. Nikkei went down 3.93%, Hang Seng up 0.68%, Shanghai Composite +1.31%. European equity markets opened broadly lower, with STOXX 600 down 3 percent and FTSE 100 up 2.6%. Press declared US reciprocal tariffs came into effect with the clock moving past the 12:01 am ET deadline as stated by the White House. Most of the attention is on the highest tariff rate of 104% imposed on China. No further reaction came from Beijing so far though yesterday's backlash continued to reverberate. Full effects may take some time to filter through as goods already in transit as of midnight will be exempt as long as they arrive in the US by May 27th. Companies Mentioned: Apple, KKR, Assura, META

This week we talk about taxes, reciprocity, and recession.We also discuss falling indices, stagflation, and theories of operation.Recommended Book: The Serviceberry by Robin Wall KimmererTranscriptStagflation, which is a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation, is exactly what it sounds like: a combination of those two elements, usually with high levels of unemployment, as well, that can cause a prolonged period of economic sluggishness and strain that slows growth and can even lead to a recession.The term was coined in the UK in the 1960s to describe issues they were facing at the time, but it was globally popularized by the oil shocks of the 1970s, which sparked a period of high prices and slow growth in many countries, including in the US, where inflation boomed, productivity floundered, and economic growth plateaud, leading to a stock market crash in 1973 and 1974.Inflation, unto itself, can be troubling, as it means prices are going up faster than incomes, so the money people earn and have saved is worth less and less each day. That leads to a bunch of negative knock-on effects, which is a big part of why the US Fed has kept interest rates so high, aiming to trim inflation rates back to their preferred level of about 2% as quickly as possible in the wake of inflation surges following the height of the Covid pandemic.Stagnant economic growth is also troubling, as it means lowered GDP, reduced future outlook for an economy, and that also tends to mean less investment in said economy, reduced employment levels—and likely even lower employment levels in the future—and an overall sense of malaise that can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, no one feeling particularly upbeat about where their country is going; and that's not great economically, but it can also lead to all sorts of social issues, as people with nothing to look forward to but worse and worse outcomes are more likely to commit crimes or stoke revolutions than their upbeat, optimistic, comfortable kin.The combination of these two elements is more dastardly than just the sum of their two values implies, though, as measures that government agencies might take to curb inflation, like raising interest rates and overall tightening monetary policy, reduces business investment which can lead to unemployment. On the flip-side, though, things a government might do to reduce unemployment, like injecting more money into the economy, tends to spike inflation.It's a lose-lose situation, basically, and that's why government agencies tasked with keeping things moving along steadily go far out of their way to avoid stagflation; it's not easily addressed, and it only really goes away with time, and sometimes a very long time.There are two primary variables that have historically led to stagflation: supply shocks and government policies that reduce output and increase the money supply too rapidly.The stagflation many countries experienced in the 1970s was the result of Middle Eastern oil producing nations cutting off the flow of oil to countries that supported Israel during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, though a sharp increase in money supply and the end of the Bretton Woods money management system, which caused exchange rate issues between global currencies, also contributed, and perhaps even more so than the oil shock.What I'd like to talk about today is another major variable, the implementation of a huge package of new tariffs on pretty much everyone by the US, that many economists are saying could lead to a new period of stagflation, alongside other, more immediate consequences.—A tariff is a type of tax that's imposed on imported goods, usually targeting specific types of goods, or goods from a particular place.Way back in the day these were an important means of funding governments: the US government actually made most of its revenue, about 90% of it, from tariffs before 1863, because there just wasn't a whole of lot other ways for the young country to make money at the time.Following the War of 1812, the US government attempted to double tariffs, but that depleted international trade, which led to less income, not more—gross imports dropped by 71%, and the government scrambled to implement direct and excise taxes, the former of which is the tax a person or business pays that isn't based on transactions, while the latter is a duty that's paid upon the manufacture of something, as opposed to when it's sold.Tariffs resurfaced in the following decades, but accounted for less and less of the government's income as the country's manufacturing base increased, and excise and income taxes made up 63% of the US's federal revenue by 1865.Tax sources have changes a lot over the years, and they vary somewhat from country to country.But the dominant move in the 20th century, especially post-WWII, has been toward free trade, which usually means no or low tariffs on goods being made in one place and sold in another, in part because this tends to lead to more wealth for everyone, on average, at least.This refocus toward globalized free trade resulted in a lot of positives, like being able to specialize and make things where they're cheap and sell them where they're precious, but also some negatives, like the offshoring of jobs—though even those negatives, which sucked for the people who lost their jobs, have been positive for some, as the companies who offshored the jobs did so because it saved them money, the folks who were hired were generally paid more than was possible in their region, previously, and the people consuming the resulting goods were able to get them cheaper than would otherwise be feasible.It's been a mixed bag, then, but the general consensus among economists is that open trade is good because it incentivizes competition and productivity. Governments are less likely to implement protectionist policies to preserve badly performing local business entities from better performing foreign versions of the same, and that means less wasted effort and resources, more options for everyone, and more efficient overall economic operation, which contributes to global flourishing. And not for nothing, nations that trade with each other tend to be less likely to go to war with each other.Now that's a massively simplified version of the argument, but again, that's been the outline for how things are meant to work, and aside from some obvious exceptions—like China's protection of its local tech sector from foreign competition, and the US's protection of its aviation and car industries—it's generally worked as intended, and the world has become massively wealthier during this period compared to before this state of affairs was broadly implemented, post-WWII; there's simply no comparison, the difference is stark.There are renewed concerns about stagflation in the United States, however, because of a big announcement made by US President Trump on April 2, 2025, that slapped substantial and at times simply massive new tariffs on just about everyone, including the country's longest-term allies and most valuable trading partners.On what the president called “Liberation Day,” he announced two new types of tariff: one is a universal 10% import duty on all goods brought into the US, and another that he called a reciprocal tariff on imports from scores of countries, including 15 that will be hit especially hard—a list that includes China, EU nations, Canada, and Japan, among others.The theory of these so-called reciprocal tariffs is that Trump thinks the US is being taken advantage of, as, to use one example that he cited, the US charges a 2.5% tariff on imported cars, while the EU charges a 10% tariff on American cars imported to their union.The primary criticism of this approach, which has been cited by most economists and entities like the World Trade Organization, is that the numbers the US administration apparently used to make this list don't really add up, and seem to include some made-up measures of trade deficits, which some analysts suspect were calculated by AI tools like ChatGPT, as the same incorrect measures are spat out by commonly use chatbots like ChatGPT when they're asked about how to balance these sorts of things. But the important takeaway, however they arrived at these numbers, is that the comparisons used aren't really sensical when you look at the details.Some countries simply can't afford American exports, for instance, while others have no use for them. The idea that a country that can't afford American goods should have astoundingly large tariffs applied to their exports to the US is questionable from the get-go, but it also means the goods they produce, which might be valuable and important for Americans, be they raw materials like food or manufactured goods like car parts, will become more expensive for Americans, either because those Americans have to pay a higher price necessitated by the tax, or because the lower-price supplier is forced out of the market and replaced by a higher-price alternative.In short, the implied balance of these tariffs don't line up with reality, according to essentially everyone except folks working within Trump's administration, and the question then is what the actual motivation behind them might be.The Occam's Razor answer is that Trump and/or people in his administration simply don't understand tariffs and global economics well enough to understand that their theory on the matter is wrong. And many foreign leaders have said these tariffs are not in any way reciprocal, and that the calculation used to draw them up was, in the words of Germany's economic minister, “nonsense.” That's the general consensus of learned people, and the only folks who seem to be saying otherwise are the one's responsible for drawing these tariffs up, and defending them in the press.Things have been pretty stellar for most of the global economy since free trade became the go-to setup for imports and exports, but this administration is acting as if the opposite is true. That might be a feigned misunderstanding, or it might be genuine; they might truly not understand the difference between how things have been post-WWII and how they were back in the 1800s when tariffs were the go-to method of earning government revenue.But in either case, Trump is promising that rewiring the global order, the nature of default international trade in this way, will be good for Americans because rather than serving as a linchpin for that global setup, keeping things orderly by serving as the biggest market in the world, the American economy will be a behemoth that gets what it's owed, even if at the expense of others—a winner among losers who keep playing because they can't afford not to, rather than a possibly slightly less winning winner amongst other winners.This theory seems to have stemmed from a 1980s understanding of things, which is a cultural and economic milieu from which a lot of Trump's views and ideas seem to have originated, despite in many cases having long since been disproved or shown to be incomplete. But it's also a premise that may be more appealing to very wealthy people, because a lot of the negative consequences from these tariffs will be experienced by people in lower economic classes and people from poorer nations, where the price hikes will be excruciating, and folks in the middle class, whose wealth is primarily kept in stocks. Folks in the higher economic echolons, including those making most of these decisions, tend to make and build their wealth via other means, which won't be entirely unimpacted, but will certainly be less hurt by these moves than everyone else.It's also possible, and this seems more likely to me, but it's of course impossible to know the truth of the matter right now, that Trump is implementing a huge version of his go-to negotiating tactic of basically hurting the folks on the other end of a negotiation in order to establish leverage over them, and then starting that negotiation by asking what they'll do for him if he limits or stops the pain.The US is expected to suffer greatly from these tariffs, but other countries, especially those that rely heavily on the US market as their consumer base, and in some cases for a huge chunk of their economy, their total GDP, will suffer even more.There's a good chance many countries, in public or behind closed doors, will look at the numbers and decide that it makes more sense to give Trump and his administration something big, up front, in exchange for a lessening of these tariffs. That's what seems to be happening with Vietnam, already, and Israel, and there's a good chance other nations have already put out feelers to see what he might want in exchange for some preferential treatment in this regard—early reports suggest at least 50 governments have done exactly that since the announcement, though those reports are coming from within the White House, so it's probably prudent to take them with a grain of salt, at this point. That said, this sort of messaging from the White House suggests that the administration might be hoping for a bunch of US-favoring deals and will therefore make a lot of noise about initial negotiations to signal that that's what they want, and that the pain can go away if everyone just kowtows a little and gestures at some new trade policies that favor the US and make Trump look like a master negotiator who's bringing the world to heel.There's been pushback against this potentiality, however, led by China, which has led with its own, very large counter-tariffs rather than negotiating, and the EU looks like it might do the same. If enough governments do this, it could call Trump's bluff while also making these other entities, perhaps especially China, which was first out the door with counter-tariffs and statements about not be cowed by the US's bluster, seem like the natural successors to the US in terms of global economic leadership. It could result in the US giving away all that soft power, basically, and that in turn could realign global trade relationships and ultimately other sorts of relationships, too, in China's favor.One other commonly cited possibility, and this is maybe the grimmest of the three, but it's not impossible, is that Trump and other people in his administration recognize that the world is changing, that China is ascendent and the US is by some metrics not competing in the way it needs to in order to keep up and retain its dominance, and that's true in terms of things like manufacturing and research, but also the potential implications of AI, changing battlefield tactics, and so on. And from that perspective, it maybe makes sense to just shake the game board, knocking over all the pieces rather than trying to win by adhering to what have become common conventions and normal rules of play.If everyone takes a hit, if there's a global recession or depression and everything is knocked asunder because those variables that led to where we are today, with all their associated pros and cons, are suddenly gone, that might lead to a situation in which the US is hurt, but not as badly as everyone else, including entities like China. And because the US did the game board shaking, the US may thus be in a better position as everything settles back into a new state of affairs; a new state of affairs that Trump and his people want to be more favorable to the US, long-term.There's some logic to this thinking, even if it's a very grim, me-first, zero-sum kind of logic. The US economy is less reliant on global trade than the rest of the G20, the wealthiest countries in the world; only about 25% of its GDP is derived from trade, while that number is 37% for China, 63% for France, and a whopping 88% for Germany.Other nations are in a relatively more vulnerable position than the US in a less-open, more tariff-heavy world, then, and that means the US administration may have them over a barrel, making the aforementioned US-favoring negotiations more likely, but also, again, potentially just hurting everyone, but the US less so. And when I say hurting, I mean some countries losing a huge chunk of their economy overnight, triggering a lot more poverty, maybe stagflation and famines, and possibly even revolutions, as people worldwide experience a shocking and sudden decrease in both wealth and future economic outlook.Already, just days after Trump announced his tariffs, global markets are crashing, with US markets on track to record its second-worst three-day decline in history, after only the crash of 1987—so that's worse than even the crashes that followed 9/11, the Covid-19 pandemic, the debt crisis, and many others.Foreign markets are doing even worse, though, with Hong Kong's recently high-flying Hang Seng falling 13% in trading early this week, and Japan's Nikkei dropping 8%.Other market markers are also dropping, the price of oil falling to a pandemic-era level of $60 per barrel, Bitcoin losing 10% in a day, and even the US dollar, which theoretically should rise in a tariff scenario, dropping 0.1%—which suggests investors are planning for a damaging recession, and the US market and currency as a whole might be toxic for a while; which could, in turn, lead to a boom for the rest of the world, the US missing out on that boom.There are also simpler theories, I should mention, that tariffs may be meant to generate more profits to help pay for Trump's expanded tax cuts without requiring he touch the third-rails of Medicare or Social Security, or that they're meant to address the US's booming debt by causing investors to flee to Treasury bills, which has the knock-on effect of reducing the interest rates that have to be paid on government debt.That flight toward Treasuries is already happening, though it seems to be primarily because investors are fleeing the market as stocks collapse in value and everyone's worrying about their future, about stagflation, and about mass layoffs and unemployment.It may be that all or most of these things are true, too, by the way, and that this jumble of events, pros and cons alike, are seen as a net-positive by this administration.For what it's worth, too, the US Presidency doesn't typically get to set things like tariffs—that's congress' responsibility and right. But because Congress is currently controlled by Republicans, they've yet to push back on these tariffs with a veto, and they may not. There are rumblings within the president's party about this, and a lot of statements about how it'll ultimately be good, but that maybe they would have done things differently, but there hasn't been any real action yet, just hedging. And that could remain the case, but if things get bad enough, they could be forced by their constituents to take concrete action on the matter before Trump's promised, theoretical positive outcomes have the chance to emerge, or not.Show Noteshttps://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20060925_RL33665_4a8c6781ce519caa3e6b82f95c269f73021c5fdf.pdfhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariffhttps://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/03/31/tariffs-affect-consumer-spending/https://www.wsj.com/tech/exempt-or-not-the-chip-industry-wont-escape-tariffs-a6c771dbhttps://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/goldman-sachs-lifts-u-s-recession-probability-to-35-ce285ebchttps://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-am-9d85eb00-1184-11f0-8b11-0da1ebc288e3.htmlhttps://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-democrats-economy-protests-financial-markets-90afa4079acbde1deb223adf070c1e98https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trade-war-explodes-across-world-at-pace-not-seen-in-decades-0b6d6513https://www.mufgamericas.com/sites/default/files/document/2025-04/The-Long-Shadow-of-William-McKinley.pdfhttps://x.com/krishnanrohit/status/1907587352157106292https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/04/business/trump-stocks-tariffs-trade.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/05/opinion/trump-tariffs-theories.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/world/asia/vietnam-trump-tariff-delay.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/world/europe/trade-trump-tariffs-brexit.htmlhttps://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/04/why-do-domestic-prices-rise-with-tarriffs.htmlhttps://www.foxnews.com/politics/how-we-got-liberation-day-look-trumps-past-comments-tariffshttps://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/trumps-tariff-strategy-can-be-traced-back-to-the-1980s/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/12/us/politics/trump-tv-stock-market.htmlhttps://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdfhttps://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/over-50-countries-push-for-tariff-revisions-will-donald-trump-compromise-heres-what-the-white-house-said/articleshow/120043664.cmshttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/business/stock-market-plunge-investment-bank-impact.htmlhttps://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-trump-tariffs-trade-war-04-07-25https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-trump-tariff-foreign-policy-6934e493https://www.wsj.com/economy/in-matter-of-days-outlook-shifts-from-solid-growth-to-recession-risk-027eb2b4https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Asia-Pacific-stocks-sink-from-Trump-s-tariff-barrage-Hong-Kong-down-13https://www.reuters.com/markets/eu-seeks-unity-first-strike-back-trump-tariffs-2025-04-06/https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/04/07/trump-presidency-news-tariffs/https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/07/world/asia/china-trade-war-tariffs.htmlhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-04-07/global-rout-carries-whiff-of-panic-as-trump-holds-fast-on-tariffshttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflationhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/economists-fed-recent-projections-signal-120900777.htmlhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisishttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_stagnation This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit letsknowthings.substack.com/subscribe

US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said there is no postponing tariffs and April 9th tariffs are coming; tariffs are going to stay in place for days and weeks.US NEC Director Hassett said more than 50 countries have reached out to the White House to begin trade negotiations.Fed Chair Powell said on Friday that it feels like the Fed does not need to be in a hurry and has time; it is not clear what the path of monetary policy should be.APAC stocks resumed last week's heavy selling, US equity futures (ES -3.5%, NQ -4.3%, RTY -3.7%) have slumped, Europe set to open lower (Eurostoxx 50 future -4.1%).DXY remains on the backfoot, EUR/USD hit resistance at the 1.10 mark, Cable sits around the 1.29 level, CHF and JPY outperform.US yields are lower once again and in bull-steepening mode, crude prices continue to feel the squeeze.Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Output, EZ Sentix Index, Retail Sales, US Employment Trends, ECB's Cipollone.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Asian indexes fell sharply on Monday in the wake of US President Donald Trump's tariffs, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index marking its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Meanwhile, European trade ministers meet in Luxembourg to formulate a response – hoping for a negotiated solution but preparing to retaliate.

Special Monday Edition: Global travel stocks suffered steep declines on Monday, with major markets in Asia, the Middle East, and Europe seeing significant selloffs due to mounting fears over global tariffs and economic instability. The Hang Seng index dropped over 13%, its worst fall since 1997, while travel-linked stocks like Trip.com and Alibaba plunged by double digits. European airlines and hotel giants also took hits, with IAG, Lufthansa, Accor, and IHG all posting substantial losses amid concerns about falling transatlantic travel demand and trade war impacts. In the Middle East, markets continued a downward slide, compounded by plunging oil prices and significant losses in companies like Saudi Aramco, adding to fears about tourism investment in the region. Read the full story on Skift. Connect with Skift LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/skift/ WhatsApp: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaAL375LikgIXmNPYQ0L/ Facebook: https://facebook.com/skiftnews Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/skiftnews/ Threads: https://www.threads.net/@skiftnews Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/skiftnews.bsky.social X: https://twitter.com/skift Subscribe to @SkiftNews and never miss an update from the travel industry.

Trump’s tariff ‘medicine’ injects turmoil into global markets; Asian markets plunge Hang Seng down 13.2%, Nikkei down 7.8%, STI down 7.7%; Singapore banks lose over S$37 billion in market value as tariff sell-off continues. Synopsis: Market Focus Daily is a closing bell roundup by The Business Times that looks at the day’s market movements and news from Singapore and the region. Written and hosted by: Emily Liu (emilyliu@sph.com.sg) Produced and edited by: Chai Pei Chieh & Claressa Monteiro Produced by: BT Podcasts, The Business Times, SPH Media --- Follow Market Focus Daily and rate us on: Channel: bt.sg/btmktfocus Amazon: bt.sg/mfam Apple Podcasts: bt.sg/mfap Spotify: bt.sg/mfsp YouTube Music: bt.sg/mfyt Website: bt.sg/mktfocus Feedback to: btpodcasts@sph.com.sg Do note: This podcast is meant to provide general information only. SPH Media accepts no liability for loss arising from any reliance on the podcast or use of third party’s products and services. Please consult professional advisors for independent advice. Discover more BT podcast series: BT Money Hacks at: bt.sg/btmoneyhacks BT Correspondents at: bt.sg/btcobt BT Podcasts at: bt.sg/podcasts BT Branded Podcasts at: bt.sg/brpod BT Lens On: bt.sg/btlensonSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Wall Street started the new trading week mostly in the red as investors piled out of equities for a third straight session after President Trump threatened even higher tariffs against China on Monday. Trading volume hit the highest level in 18 years yesterday with markets trading around 29 billion shares. The Dow Jones fell 0.91% on Monday, the S&P500 shed 0.23% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day up 0.1%.In Europe overnight, markets in the region started the new trading week lower as investors continue to fear the global fall out of Trump's Tariffs and implications on economic activity in the Eurozone. The STOXX 600 tumbled 4.54%, Germany's DAX lost 4.26%, the French CAC plummeted 4.8%, and in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 4.4%.Asia markets started the week with another sea of red as global trade war fears escalate following China's reciprocal tariff announcement on Friday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng plummeted 13.22%, China's CSI index fell 7.05%, Japan's Nikkei tumbled 7.83% and South Korea's Kospi index ended the day down 5.57%.Locally on Monday, the ASX200 tanked over 4% to post the biggest loss in 5-years after China retaliated with tariffs on US goods, escalating the global trade war and tensions on a global scale.Abacus Storage King was among the only winners on Monday with a rally over 20% after its majority investor Ki Corporation and NYSE-listed Public Storage lobbed a proposal to buy the remaining stake for $1.47 a share.Market heavyweights tanked yesterday, with CBA diving over 6%, so too did BHP and other miners as the price of iron ore slumped on global trade and demand concerns.What to watch today:Ahead of Tuesday's trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.75% to recover some of the heavy losses experienced in recent days.On the commodities front this morning, the sea of red continues with oil trading 1.12% lower at US$61.29/barrel, gold is down 1.65% at US$2987/ounce and iron ore is down 1.5% at US$102.64/tonne.The Aussie dollar has further weakened against the USD overnight to buy US$0.59, 88.67 Japanese Yen, 47.08 British Pence and NZ$1.08.Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has initiated coverage of Trajan Group (ASX:TRJ) with a buy rating and a 12-month price target of $1.50 on the global developer of scientific measurement devices as the analyst sees the company is returning to growth. The analyst sees Trajan Group as offering deep value given it is trading at a 47% discount to close peer Tecan and a 60^ discount to major US peers.And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on EBR Systems (ASX:EBR) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 52-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $1.39 to the range of 75 to 85cps according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Séances mouvementées, de l'Asie à Wall Street, en passant par les places européennes. Ce lundi, les marchés réagissaient aux dernières annonces de Donald Trump sur les droits de douane punitifs concernant tous les partenaires commerciaux des Etats-Unis. Les marchés asiatiques ont connu une séance très pessimiste, le Hang Seng abandonnant 13,22% à Hong Kong, au plus bas depuis la crise financière asiatique de 1997. Côté européen, une rumeur intervenue dans l'après-midi a redonné des couleurs aux principales places boursières, alors qu'il semblait que Donald Trump envisageait une suspension de 90 jours des tarifs douaniers avancés. Un démenti de la Maison blanche a fait replonger les marchés. Wall Street a subi les mêmes aléas mais mieux conclu la journée que l'Asie et l'Europe, le Nasdaq revenant même en territoire positif.

Wall St was smashed again on Friday as investors fled equities amid concerns over Trump's latest tariff implications on the US economy. The Dow Jones tumbled 5.5%, the S&P500 lost 5.97% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq plunged 5.8%. China's commerce ministry said on Friday that it will impose a 34% levy on all US products without negotiation with President Trump, while tech and other stocks with exposure to China also tumbled as investors brace for impact on such company's sales, financials and growth outlook.In Europe on Friday, markets in the region closed sharply lower as investors digested Trump's liberation day tariffs and after China retaliated with tariffs on the US. The STOXX 600 fell 5%, Germany's DAX fell 4.7%, the French CAC lost 4.3% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down just shy of 5%.Across the Asia region to end the week, markets closed lower as the global tariff sell-off extended into the region. China's CSI index fell 0.59%, Japan's Nikkei tumbled over 4%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 1.52% and South Korea's Kospi Index ended the day down 0.76%.The local market tumbled 2.4% on Friday erasing 57b$ from the ASX200 after global markets reacted to Trump's liberation day tariff handouts that were larger and broader than expected.Our market followed the US free-fall on Thursday that saw the Nasdaq tumble 6%, the S&P 500 drop 4.84% and the Dow Jones decline 4%.Stocks with exposure to the US market were heavily sold off as investors fled exposure to cost hikes faced by such companies under the new 10% blanket tariff on all Aussie exports bound for the US.In the wake of global uncertainty, investors are increasingly dumping growth stocks in favour of supermarkets given their defensive nature, lack of exposure to the US and guaranteed earnings no matter the time of economic cycle.Breville Group has been hit hard by the US tariff imposition with the company falling over 11% on Friday and over 6% on Thursday as the company manufactures in China and attributes a large portion of revenues to the US market. Breville has already started moving production out of China, however, will need to assess pricing and strategize to overcome the tariff implications.Growth stocks associated with the AI revolution were also heavily sold off on Friday with NextDC falling over 6% while geolocation tracking app with a high presence in the US, Life 360, fell over 8%.What to watch today:Ahead of Monday's trading session to start the new trading week, the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day down 4.3% tracking the global sell-off on Friday.On the commodities front this morning it is a sea of red across the commodities space with oil down 3.14% at US$60/barrel, gold is down 0.57% at US$3020/ounce and iron ore is down 1.5% at US$102.64/tonne.The Aussie dollar has weakened against the greenback over the weekend to buy US$60.02, 87.07 Japanese Yen, 46.77 British Pence and NZ$1.08.Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Bellevue Gold (ASX:BGL) from a buy to a hold and have lowered the 12-month price target on the gold producer from $2 to $1.30 per share after Q3 production missed guidance by 30%.And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Generation Development Group (ASX:GDG) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 53-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $4.36 to the range of $3.40 to $3.70 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Peter Boockvar explains why investors must discard the playbook that has worked for the past few years due to three major shifts: the end of the MAG7 tech trade, potential cuts in government spending, and declining foreign flows into US assets. Boockvar notes that these seven stocks reached 35% of the S&P 500 - exceeding the concentration seen in March 2000 - while becoming a global "reserve currency" with central banks like Norway's Norges Bank and the Swiss National Bank owning billions in shares. He identifies emerging opportunities in international markets, with the German DAX up 17% and Hang Seng up 20% year-to-date, while warning that reduced government spending combined with weakening tech investment creates recession risk. Boockvar believes the Fed has diminished power in a new 3-4% inflation environment, pointing to record copper prices as evidence while noting that US defense manufacturers and technology companies face growing international competition.This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: Substack/The Boock Report: https://boockreport.com/Twitter/X: https://x.com/pboockvarBleakley Financial Group: https://www.bleakley.com/Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction and welcome Peter Boockvar0:55 Big picture market changes post-COVID3:22 End of AI tech trade dominance5:50 Foreign central bank investment in US stocks7:47 Market pivot to international opportunities10:12 Fed and Treasury coordination on bond yields12:34 Market bounce and valuation concerns14:28 New inflationary environment limiting Fed options16:53 Record copper prices amid inflation volatility18:02 Geopolitical shifts in commodity holdings20:17 Investment opportunities in China tech22:42 Portfolio management in changing market leadership25:12 Foreign flows into US stocks and dollar implications28:21 Recession risk assessment30:33 Closing thoughts on investment approach changes32:57 Final remarks and sign-off

While US equities stumble under the threat of tariffs and a record budget deficit, and the ASX pulls away from its highs, the Hang Seng has quietly staged returns of more than 25% year to date. So is the era of Chinese weakness over? Dr Joseph Lai of Asian specialist fund manager Ox Capital joins the podcast to discuss: Why the question of whether Chinese businesses can innovate has been settled Whether the recent run in share prices has seen all the easy gains made Where the opportunities lie outside megacap tech in China, and What he learned working for investing legend Kerr Neilson. You can access this and previous episodes of the Your Wealth podcast now on iTunes, Podbean, Spotify or at nabtrade.com.au/yourwealth If you're short on time, consider listening at 1.5-2x speed, which should be shown on the screen of your device as you listen. This won't just reduce your listening time; it has also been shown to improve knowledge retention.

This week we talk about tariffs, consumer confidence, and trade wars.We also discuss inflation, GDP, and uncertainty.Recommended Book: A Brief History of Intelligence by Max S. BennettTranscriptOn January 20, 2025, mere hours after being sworn into his second term in office as President of the United States, Donald Trump announced new 25% tariffs on most incoming goods from Canada and Mexico, accusing the two allies of failing to halt the flow of drugs and illegal migrants into the US. These tariffs would go into effect on February 1, he said, and they would be in addition to existing tariffs that were already in effect for specific import categories.On that same day, he also speculated that he might impose a universal tariff on all imports, saying that he believed all countries, allies or not, were taking advantage of the US, and he didn't like that.Less than a week later, Trump announced that he would impose 25% tariffs on all good from Colombia, with immediate effect, and would double that tariff to 50% within a week. This appears to have been a punishment for the Colombian government's decision to turn back planes full of immigrants the US government deported and sent their way, without approval from the intended recipient of those deported people, the Colombian government. There was a minor tiff between these governments, but the White House declared victory on the matter later that night, saying the tariffs would be held in reserve, implying they could come back at any time if their demands are not met.An executive order implementing the threatened 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico was signed on February 1, and a new 10% tariff on China went into effect the same day. Countermeasures were threatened by everyone involved, and after Trump published a social media post saying there would probably be economic pain for a while, his government agreed to a 30 day pause on tariffs for Mexico and Canada, while also threatening new tariffs against the European Union; another long-time US ally.The new 10% tariff on Chinese imports went into effect on February 4, and China retaliated with its own counter-tariffs on US goods, including things like farm machinery and energy products. It also implemented new restrictions on the export of rare earth minerals to the US—a category of raw materials everyone is scrambling to secure, as they're vital for the production of batteries and other fundamental technologies—and they launched a new antimonopoly investigation into Google, which deals with some Chinese companies.On February 10, Trump reimposed a 25% tariff on all foreign steel and aluminum; a move that made US metal companies happy, but essentially all other US companies very unhappy, and in mid-February he threatened even more, broad, and vague tariffs on basically everyone, saying he's doing what he's doing in order to force companies to move manufacturing infrastructure back to the US, after decades of offshoring everything.At the end of February, Trump said the delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico would go into effect, as planned, on March 4, alongside those new 10% tariffs on China. On that day, Canada implemented its own counter-tariffs on the US to the tune of 25% on about $155 billion of US goods imported by the country.Canada and Mexico send about 80% of their exports to the US market, so their economies are expected to be hit hard by this trade war. China, in contrast, only sends about 15% of its exports to the US, so the impact will be more tempered.These three countries, though, are the US's largest trading partners, collectively accounting for over 40% of US imports and exports. In addition to buying a lot of US goods, they also export the majority of things like oil, beer, copper wire, chocolate, and other goods that the US consumes; and the cost of tariffs are almost always passed on to the end-consumer, so higher tariffs on these sorts of goods mean raised prices on a lot of stuff across the economy.On March 6, after a lot of back-and-forth with US automakers and with the Mexican and Canadian governments, a lot of the tariffs placed on goods from these countries were suspended, the US government denying that their withdrawal had anything to do with the US market, which was suffering in response to this wave of economic disruptions—though many tariffs were kept in place, and Trump said the US would still impose tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports beginning on March 12.On the 12th, the EU and Canada announced a new wave of retaliatory tariffs against the US, though the European side said they would hold off on their implementation of these tariffs, waiting till April 1 to see what happens. The next day, Trump threatened a 200% charge on alcoholic products from the EU in response to their planned 50% tariffs on US whiskey and other products within their borders.At the moment, as of mid-March 2025, a lot of these tariffs are still speculative, as it's generally understood, from Trump's bombastic approach to deal-making and his previous backtracking from these sorts of threats, that many of these tariffs could disappear, announced solely to provide leverage against those Trump wants to squeeze for more concessions and what he considers to be more favorable trade terms. Some of them could become concrete reality, though, and part of the issue here is that it's nearly impossible to know which is which, because there also seems to be a larger effort to rewire the US and global economies by this administration—and that effort, plus the uncertainty caused by tariffs and similar actions, are leading to some pretty severe market upsets within the US, and resultantly around the world, as well.And that's what I'd like to talk about today: the impacts of these tariffs and other actions by this administration, so far, and what might happen next, based on currently available numbers and analysis.—Economies are ridiculously complex systems, and it's impossible to say with 100% certainty what caused what, and to what degree things would be different had some other path been taken by those in control of various regulatory and economic levers.That said, the nonpartisan Tax Foundation has estimated that just those first batch of proposed tariffs by the US government, not including impacts from foreign retaliations, which could be substantial, will reduce US GDP by about 0.4% and reduce total hours worked by the equivalent of 309,000 full-time jobs; so a lot less output, and a lot less overall productivity.That's on top of the estimated 0.2% long-term decrease in US GDP caused by the first Trump administration's tariffs, which were maintained by the subsequent Biden administration.These existing tariffs raised prices in the US and reduced both output and employment, which means the boom the US economy saw under the Biden administration might have been even boomier, had those tariffs been dropped. But now they're more or less locked in, and these new tariffs will probably amplify their effect, near-term and long-term.On top of that, the constant threats and pullbacks and seemingly off-the-cuff decisions to implement what amounts to all sorts of huge-scale taxes on a frenetic array of goods, including luxuries, but also some very fundamental things, like the metals we use to build and manufacture basically everything, is stoking uncertainty throughout the US and global economies.That uncertainty has wide-ranging impacts, but one of the most direct consequences is that consumer sentiment in the US has nose-dived, as ordinary people worry about the combined impacts of tariffs, cuts to government programs, layoffs across government agencies, and new restrictions on immigration, which even ignoring the human element of such things can cause all sorts of issues across industries that rely on immigrant workers to stay afloat.In mid-March of this year, US consumer sentiment hit 57.9, down from 64.7 in February. That's the lowest its been since November of 2022, it's down 27% from a year earlier, and it's a lot lower than economist predictions for this month, which were set at 63.2.Consumer sentiment tells us how people are feeling about the economy, about their potential to earn, and about where things are going. This influences how people spend, how they consume, and that in turn helps determine how the overall economy will go in the coming years, as people will be more likely to hunker down and save, taking as few risks as possible and making fewer purchases if they believe things will be rough; which in some cases can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, because those behaviors tend to shrink the economy, which leads to less output, fewer investments being made, more layoffs, and so on. That means a drop in consumer sentiment can make things bad even if they would otherwise be good, but if they're bad already, they can become even worse because folks stop doing things that would improve the economy, out of self-preservation.And that impact can be just as pronounced when things are weird and wobbly, rather than outright bad, as seems to be the case in the US at the moment.There's no firm evidence that the US economy is destined for a recession at this point, but the Russell 2000 index, which is made up of smaller companies than indexes like the S&P 500, and which is thus more prone to on-the-ground variables than its larger index kin, has dropped more than 16% since November, when it hit a new high on optimism about what the new Trump administration might do for businesses and the economy.The S&P 500 also collapsed, though about half as much, and it rallied somewhat last week as investors bought the dip, scooping up stocks at lower prices following that drop. But there's a lot of speculation that this might be a so-called dead cat bounce recovery—a moment in which a market seems to be recovering from a drop, but where it's actually just bouncing up a little before heading back downward—and even this index, which is packed with corporations that are less susceptible to brief market wobbles than those in the Russell, might be heading for another downswing in the coming weeks, based on a lot of the economic numbers used to predict such things, at the moment.One such metric is interest in alternative assets like gold, and the price of gold hit a new high last Friday, surpassing $3,000 per ounce for the first time ever.That's not something you tend to see when markets are healthy and people expect them to do well; if they are healthy and expected to surge rather than collapse, people tend to put their money in the market, not in shiny metals. But the shiny metals bet seems to be appealing right now, which hints at an even broader suspicion of the US economy than even that consumer sentiment and those bad market figures anticipate.And the market figures have been bad. In just 3 weeks, beginning on February 19, the S&P alone lost more than $5 trillion in value.The Atlanta Fed, which uses a fairly reliable model to predict future US GDP numbers, was predicting a healthy nearly 4% increase for the US's GDP for the first quarter of 2025 back in late-January, early-February, but that prediction plummeted from positive 4% to negative 2.4% by early March.That figure could still change, as it's informed by data that don't all arrive at the same time, but it's still a staggering drop, and it reflects the impact of all these tariffs, but also all the destruction of government programs and agencies, the mass firings, and of course the uncertainty caused by all of these things in aggregate, alongside the impacts of said uncertainty on everyone at all scales, from trade partners to US-based small businesses to individual consumers.So few people and institutions are happy about what's happening right now, but it does look like, in the immediate future, at least, there are some beneficiaries of all this tumult.Markets in China are flourishing, especially Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, which is up more than 20% since Trump's inauguration on January 20. And Europe's market, which has struggled with stasis for years now, is up more than 4% over that same period.Uncertainty about markets, but also military alliances, especially NATO, have pushed Germany—which has struggled since Russia invaded Ukraine, when their energy markets were utterly scrambled, which in turn hobbled their massive manufacturing base—Germany has unleashed a huge amount of government funds on their economy, and that big uptick in spending has helped basically the whole EU market grow. The German government has traditionally been tight-pocketed, but a declaration by the incoming Chancellor that they would do whatever it takes to both defend themselves and boost their economic outlook in the face of unreliable backing from their long-time ally, the US, has bolstered enthusiasm and optimism throughout the region, bringing EU nations closer together, increasing spending on all sorts of fundamentals, and bringing them closer to the Canadian government, as well.The Chinese government has recently indicated they'll be injecting a bunch of money and other types of support in their economy, as well, which creates a stark contrast with the US government, which seems to be refocusing on pulling government resources from across society and the economy, and spending mostly on tax cuts for the wealthiest people and biggest companies, instead.The US government's efforts to go America first, and not do anyone, even its longest-term, most reliable allies, any favors, or even trade in what might be considered a balanced way, thus seems to be scrambling US markets while simultaneously stoking those that are being cut off, unifying aspects of the rest of the world in antagonism against the US, while also providing them with incentive to reinvest in their own markets; which could be good for them long-term, making them less reliant on the US in all sorts of ways, but which seems pretty bad for the US in particular, short-term, and casts the US-dominated global order into disarray for the immediate future, with all sorts of consequences, economic and otherwise.The degree to which this impacts Trump's approval ratings has yet to be seen, as while his approval is collapsing, especially on the economy, right now, a lot of the most serious economic impacts are expected to fall hard on regions that most enthusiastically voted for him, and Republican talking points have already pivoted toward messaging that implies suffering for a while is good and patriotic.That message might succeed and keep people on side even as their investments collapse and tariff-driven inflation hits their bottom-lines, or it might not. But it seems like the administration is ramping up for a version of austerity that doesn't actually reduce the deficit, but instead takes a bunch of money from programs and investments that helped these areas, and moves it to other stuff that mostly helps fund tax cuts for wealthy allies of the administration—and that could come back to bite them, come election season.All of this is also happening in parallel to the many political maneuverings of the administration and its opposition, though, and just recently the Republican-held congress was able to pass a funding bill, moving a lot more authority and control to the White House; so whatever the short-term approval numbers show, none of this seems to be having much of a negative impact on Trump's control of government. That could change, though, over the course of the next year, leading into 2026's midterm election, when the makeup of congress could be influenced by these and similar decisions.Show Noteshttps://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-rise-after-volatile-week-consumer-data-tap-2025-03-14/https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/consumer-confidence-march-2025-drops-trump-trade-e7e0964dhttps://www.axios.com/2025/03/15/economic-indicators-recession-riskhttps://www.cnn.com/2025/03/14/investing/gold-price-today-3000-ounce-intl/index.htmlhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/14/us-stock-market-loses-5-trillion-in-value-in-three-weeks.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/business/russell-2000-bear-market.htmlhttps://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/us/politics/stock-market-correction-trump-tariffs.htmlhttps://www.nfib.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/NFIB-SBET-Report-Feb.-2025.pdfhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/your-money/car-shopping-trump-tariffs-cfpb.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/16/business/trump-sp-500-stocks-europe-china.htmlhttps://archive.ph/GNPRfhttps://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/issues/economyhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/15/business/economy/tariffs-trump-maps-voters.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/15/us/politics/trump-spending-bill-government-shutdown.htmlhttps://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/investing-stocks-risk-strategies-trump-policies-c4a5d3d9https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/trump-trade-tariffs-us-dollar-value-814cbe37https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-nasdaq-sp500-03-17-2025https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/16/wall-street-hoped-scott-bessent-would-keep-trump-in-check-he-had-other-ideas-00231771https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-mergers-acquisitions-ipos-hiring-slumps-trump-tariffs-2025-3https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/14/trump-trade-wars-consumer-sentiment-00230833https://archive.ph/fUKPshttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/13/business/economy/trump-tariff-timeline.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/14/business/energy-environment/trump-energy-oil-gas.htmlhttps://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/ This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit letsknowthings.substack.com/subscribe

Big Tech's decade-long Wall Street dominance is slipping as investors flock to booming international markets. With Germany's DAX up 20%, France's CAC soaring 10%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng exploding 23%, is this the start of a new financial order? Meanwhile, Trump's job cuts and trade war policies send shockwaves through the U.S. economy, sparking fears of stagflation. Are we witnessing a market shake-up or just temporary turbulence? Tune in as we break it all down!

Automakers are handed a one-month postponement of tariffs on Canada and Mexico by U.S. President Trump with his administration dangling the prospect of further sector-specific exemptions. Investor sentiment lifts slightly on Wall Street as a result and Asia equities follow suit. French President Emmanuel Macron says he could extend his country's nuclear deterrent to cover Europe in the face of Russian aggression. He warns the continent must ready itself for self-defence, potentially without the U.S. providing security. Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba launches its DeepSeek A.I. rival, helping its stock rise and pushing the Hang Seng to a new three-year high. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

S&P futures are pointing to a higher open today, up +0.55%. Asian markets rebounded on Wednesday, led by a +2.8% surge in Hong Kong's Hang Seng, driven by optimism over supportive policy measures announced at China's NPC. European markets also opened higher, as markets are reacting positively to Germany's proposed infrastructure fund and hopes for easing trade tensions.Companies Mentioned: Google, BlackRock

Following lower closes on Monday and Tuesday, S&P futures are indicating to a higher open today, up +0.45%. Asia markets ended mixed on Wednesday. The Hang Seng surged over +3%, hitting nearly three-year highs, fueled by a rally in Chinese technology stocks after DeepSeek reopened its core programming interface. However, Japan, Australia, and Singapore indices all ended slightly lower. European markets opened higher today, supported by strong earnings reports, though trade-related uncertainty remains a key overhang.Companies Mentioned: Nvidia, Arthur J. Gallagher, Flywire, Light & Wonder

Following lower closes yesterday, S&P futures are still pointing to a softer open today, down (0.13%). Asian markets were firmly lower on Tuesday, with the Nikkei dropping (1.4%) as it hit the lower end of its five-month trading range. The Hang Seng fell (1.3%) but saw mid-morning dip buying in tech stocks, supported by mainland inflows. European markets opened mixed but are edging higher, while bond yields are finding support amid safe-haven buying. Companies Mentioned: Apple, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Solventum Corp, Starbucks

S&P futures are up +0.08% as of now, pointing to a marginally higher open as markets weigh the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes and the potential impact of new U.S. tariffs on autos, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. Asian markets delivered a mixed performance on Wednesday. The Hang Seng fell slightly but saw continued gains in its tech index. European markets are mixed in early trading. Companies Mentioned: HP Inc, Shift4, Colgate-Palmolive, X Corp (formerly Twitter)

S&P futures are up +0.32% as of now, pointing to a higher open today. Asian markets were mostly higher on Tuesday. The Hang Seng surged +1.6%, led by gains in technology stocks, which hit a three-year high on optimism surrounding AI developments and policy support for the private sector. European equity markets are flat to slightly lower. Companies Mentioned: H&E Equipment Services, OpenAI, Honda, Nissan

S&P futures are indicating a slightly lower open, down (0.12%) ahead of the January CPI report. Asian markets advanced on Wednesday, with the Hang Seng leading the gains, up+2.64%, driven by enthusiasm over AI developments and Chinese property sector optimism. European markets opened slightly higher, with major indexes all edging up. Companies Mentioned: Alibaba, Apple, Brookfield Asset Management, McDonald's

S&P futures are down (2%) and pointing to a sharply lower open, as Chinese AI startup DeepSeek sends shockwave to the global tech markets with its new AI model that can run on less-advanced chips, challenging the dominance of high-cost chipmakers like Nvidia. Nasdaq 100 futures tumbled over (3%), and the VIX futures are surging. European tech stocks are recording sharp declines with ASML plummeting over (9%). Asian markets were polarized with the Nikkei down (1%) due to steep losses in Japanese tech stocks, while the Hang Seng edged higher on optimism surrounding Chinese AI developments.Companies Mentioned: TikTok, Nvidia, United States Steel, Logility Supply Chain Solutions, Beacon Roofing Supply

APAC stocks traded mixed in a holiday-thinned start to the week, with markets in Australia, South Korea and Taiwan closed overnight, and ahead of Mainland China's week-long holiday starting Tuesday.Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat despite the disappointing PMI data which showed headline Chinese Manufacturing PMI back in contraction territory.US President Trump announced the US will impose emergency 25% tariffs on all Colombian goods coming into the US which will be raised to 50% in one week after Colombia denied entry to two US deportation flights.Momentum is growing among US President Trump's advisers to place 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as soon as Saturday ahead of negotiations, according to WSJ.European equity futures indicate a negative open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.9% after the cash market closed flat on Friday.Looking ahead highlights include German Ifo Expectations, Comments from ECB President Lagarde, Supply from the EU & US, Earnings from Ryanair, Sofi & AT&T.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed in mostly rangebound trade after the uninspiring handover from Wall St and despite encouraging Chinese GDP and activity data.Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy with only mild support seen after GDP, Industrial Production & Retail Sales beat expectations with China's economy growing 5.4% Y/Y (exp. 5.0%) in Q4 and by 5.0% (exp. 4.9%) for 2024.DXY lacked conviction following the headwinds from a dovish Fed Waller; USD/JPY initially languished at its lowest in nearly a month; Antipodeans saw a muted reaction to Chinese data.Israel agreed to the Gaza hostage deal and the cabinet is to meet on Friday, according to Israeli media; Israeli National Security Minister Ben-Gvir said he will resign from the government if the Gaza ceasefire deal is approved.European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures U/C after the cash market closed with gains of 1.5% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include US Industrial Production, CBO Budget and Economic Outlook, Comments from ECB's Cipollone, Earnings from SLB, Fastenal, Truist, State Street & Citizens.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed following the weak handover from Wall St where tech underperformed as yields climbed after the hot ISM Services and strong JOLTS data.Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured with market participants underwhelmed by the latest NDRC press briefing in Beijing.AUD/USD choppy following the latest monthly inflation data from Australia in which the Weighted CPI printed firmer than expected but the annual trimmed mean CPI softened from previous.European equity futures indicate a lower cash open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.5% on Tuesday.Looking ahead, highlights include US Jobless Claims, Wholesale Inventory and EIA Nat Gas Change (brought forward on account of the US Day of Mourning), German Retail Sales, EZ Economic Sentiment, US ADP National Employment, Comments from Fed's Waller, FOMC Minutes, Supply from UK, Germany & US, Earnings from Jefferies.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mostly subdued following the lack of macro catalysts over the weekend and as participants digested the mixed signals from Chinese Caixin PMI data, while Japanese markets underperformed in their first trading session of 2025.Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy following the somewhat mixed PMI data in which Chinese Caixin Services PMI data beat expectations, but the Caixin Composite PMI figure slowed.US Republican Mike Johnson was re-elected as House Speaker on Friday. Elsewhere, Canadian PM Trudeau is likely to resign prior to the national caucus meeting on Wednesday, according to Canadian press.The percentage of UK businesses planning to raise prices in the coming three months rose to about 55% from 39% as tax increases and higher wage costs caused confidence to slump, according to a survey of 5,000 businesses by the British Chambers of Commerce via FT.European equity futures indicate a mildly higher cash open with Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.6% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.9% on Friday.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Sentix Index, German Prelim. CPI, EZ/UK/US Services & Composite PMI (Final), Factory Orders, Comments from Fed's Daly, Supply from US, Earnings from Greggs.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

​​The market wants to close the year on a high note, with the S&P 500 index's total year-to-date return exceeding 30%. The consensus estimates around 13% earnings growth for both 2025 and 2026. The futures market implies a Fed funds rate of 3.65% by February next year, an over 100 basis point decline from where it is today. In such circumstances, it's not hard to imagine the bull market in stocks could keep going, barring an inflation shock.​​Keywords: S&P 500 index, all-time high, earnings growth, interest rate cut, Fed funds rate, deregulation, David Perdue, ambassador to China, Hang Seng index