Podcasts about dollar yen

In this week's Macro Mondays, James Todd is joined by Spyridon Kokas and Mita Chaturvedi to dissect a turbulent week in markets. President Trump has unveiled plans for sweeping new tariffs, including a 100% tariff on pharmaceutical imports, just as Washington stares down another potential government shutdown at the October 1st deadline. The Dollar continues to weaken, with Treasury yields sliding as faith in U.S. data erodes and the Fed faces pressure to accelerate rate cuts. Gold and silver both powered to record highs on surging ETF demand, while the Dollar-Yen teeters as the Bank of Japan signals a hawkish tilt. Brent struggles to hold above $70/bbl amid Russian supply hits and a surprise surge in Indonesian exports to China. In equities, Boeing rebounds on a huge Turkish Airlines order, even as the S&P 500 consolidates after recent losses. With non-farm payrolls and critical inflation prints due this week, markets are bracing for another bout of volatility. 

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli are back on the big 300th episode to discuss whether Michael Saylor's ‘Bitcoin Yield' makes sense and looking at why people are buying MicroStrategy vs just buying Bitcoin. Then they talk Nvidia earnings and how it is getting cheaper on a forward 12-month PE ratio basis even as the price has moved higher. Plus, they look at the options action on Nvidia right before earnings. Speaking of semiconductors, they look at a potentially bearish pattern in the SOX Index, the Dollar Yen pair getting back to August levels, and ask the question if you could have bought Dominos Pizza or Google at their respective IPOs, which one would you have taken and how its worked out.   MicroStrategy market cap value vs the value of their total Bitcoin holding Wall Street Journal Jonathan Weil article on Bitcoin vs MicroStrategy What is the Bitcoin Yield? Forward PE ratio of Nvidia vs its price Nvidia earnings options action Performance of Dominos Pizza vs Google since their respective IPOs Median S&P 500 Index historical performance post-election and after inauguration US vs international vs The Dollar post-election performance Argentia ETF post Javier Milei's election victory bullish move The Dollar Yen pair moves back towards the old August highs, but does it mean anything? Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs put a 6500 year end 2025 price target on the S&P 500     Mentioned in this Episode   MicroStrategy's Magical Bitcoin Machine article in WSJ by Jonathan Weil https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/microstrategys-magical-bitcoin-buying-machine-uses-some-wacky-math-da7d85d0?st=AUzUiM   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Phil Streible talks about the impact of Japan potentially raising rates on the dollar/yen carry trade. Overall, he thinks that “most of the destruction in these markets has been done," and there are “many” opportunities in commodities, covering gold, crypto, and crude oil. ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Discover how the recent turmoil in the dollar-yen carry trade has shaken the financial world in an insightful conversation with Andreas Steno Larsen, the esteemed creator of Steno Signals. Andreas brings his wealth of foreign exchange and investment banking experience to the table, shedding light on the significant leverage macro hedge funds placed on the US dollar against the Japanese yen. As Japan hints at shifting away from its QE program, Andreas helps us unpack the repercussions involving US non-farm payroll data, interest rate spreads, and intricate currency hedging practices by pension funds. Listen in as he provides a forecast for this trade, suggesting ongoing market adjustments.Next, we turn our attention to the intricate web of global dollar markets with a focus on the limited role of Chinese banks in carry trades. Despite restricted access to dollar funding, we explore how the People's Bank of China impacts these markets through its US Treasury holdings and gold reserves. Andreas also delves into liquidity trends, forecasting significant movements towards the year's end and examining their potential effects on the job market and asset classes like gold and NASDAQ. We discuss strategic implications of the US Treasury's actions and how seasonal patterns influence market behavior.Our episode also explores the shifting landscape of the US construction sector and the economic health challenges in China. With legislative shifts from the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chips and Science Act, we address the risks to construction jobs and the broader implications for the US business cycle. Andreas expects unemployment rates to rise above 5%, while also dissecting China's significant drop in domestic demand and its global impact on commodities. To wrap up, we reflect on the concept of Japanification within the US economy, comparing debt-to-GDP ratios and pondering long-term economic trajectories. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.Get a two-week free trial and a limited-time 20% discount on the first payment through alphaprogression.com/leadlag.Developed by competitive bodybuilders, this science-based tool has gained recognition as Apple's App of the Day twice and dominates the German fitness market. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It's social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world's first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today:

The great dollar-yen unwind is under way, with the combined shift to much more dovish Fed-easing prospects and more hawkish BOJ expectations the perfect trigger to the unwind of the yen carry trade. Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G-10 FX strategist, talks to BI's Chief Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu about what is still a negative dollar-yen narrative, while acknowledging that the pace of the recent moves have been extreme and aren't likely to be sustained. Stephen and Audrey also look at the implications of recent yen moves for yuan dynamics and revisit their BEER model, highlighting its useful reference at a time of extreme FX moves.

This week Nick talks to long time friend of the show, Hugh Hendry the Acid Capitalist.Hugh Hendry is a prominent investor and hedge fund manager, best known for founding Eclectica Asset Management. Hendry gained considerable attention for his contrarian investment style and outspoken personality. He began his career at Baillie Gifford before moving to Credit Suisse, where he honed his skills in asset management. Hendry's reputation for making bold, unconventional bets was solidified during the 2008 financial crisis when his fund profited significantly from positions that anticipated the market downturn. His ability to foresee economic shifts and his willingness to take high-stakes risks have marked him as a distinctive figure in the world of finance.Despite stepping back from active fund management, Hendry remains an influential voice in finance, leveraging his deep understanding of market dynamics and his contrarian mindset to provide a unique perspective on economic developments as the Acid Capitalist. Hugh guides Nick through a macroeconomic maze, exploring the markets, gold, the Kobayashi Maru test, Dollar/Yen, Euro/Dollar, the Federal Reserve, Japan's devaluation and yelling at Yelland plus where Hugh invests his money. Fancy a ACID CAPITALIST SUMMER CAMP MACRO RETREAT with Hugh? Click here for details. This content is issued by Zeus Capital Limited (“Zeus”) (Incorporated in England & Wales No. 4417845), which is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) for designated investment business, (Reg No. 224621) and is a member firm of the London Stock Exchange. This content is for information purposes only and neither the information contained, nor the opinions expressed within, constitute or are to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities or other instruments mentioned in it. Zeus shall not be liable for any direct or indirect damages, including lost profits arising in any way from the information contained in this material. This material is for the use of intended recipients only.

The challenges of unilateral FX intervention by the Bank of Japan may mean that a confirmed dovish Fed adjustment and/or a step-up in the BOJ tightening cycle remain the best path to address the cost-of-carry yen conundrum and take dollar-yen lower in the process, according to the latest FX Moment podcast. Host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G-10 FX strategist, talks to Chris Gaffney, World Markets president at EverBank, about whether it could be time to rejoin the dollar-bearish camp, with a focus on dollar-yen amid BOJ intervention considerations. However, Fed rate cuts and/or aggressive BOJ rate hikes aren't on the agenda just yet: For now, the best case scenario for dollar-yen bears may be a 155-160 range.

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: on the dollar-yen exchange rate, published by bhauth on April 8, 2024 on LessWrong. Recently, the yen-dollar exchange rate hit a 34-year low. Why is that? 6-month US Treasuries are paying around 5.3% interest. Japanese government bonds are paying about 0%. That being the case, you can borrow yen, trade it for dollars, buy US bonds, and get more interest. That's called a "yen carry trade". The risk you take in exchange for that money is that the exchange rate will shift so that a dollar is worth less yen. But of course, it's also possible that the exchange rate will shift in the other direction, and that's what's happened recently. From 2020 to now, $1 went from 105 to 150 yen. That being the case, I'd normally expect inflation to be higher in Japan than the US - their currency became less valuable, which makes imports more expensive. Yet, that's not what happened; inflation has been higher in the US. In Japan, you can get a good bowl of ramen for $6. In an American city, today, including tax and tip you'd probably pay more like $20 for something likely worse. The PPP / nominal GDP of Japan is now ~1.5x that of the US, and I'd argue that's actually an underestimate: PPP estimates don't account for quality of services, and a lot of Japanese services are higher-quality than their US equivalents. But that's not to say I envy how the economic situation of people in Japan has changed. While inflation was lower in Japan than America, wages barely increased, and real incomes of most Japanese fell. In some countries, you can argue that crime or lack of property rights or inadequate infrastructure keep labor values down, but that's not the case for Japan. So, we're left with some questions. Question 1: Why would an hour of labor from an American be worth 2x as much as an hour from a Japanese employee? I remember talking to an economist about this once, and he said, "that means Japanese labor is just not as good as American labor" - but he was just wrong. (He didn't even consider the possibility that Japanese management culture was the problem, because obviously inefficient companies would just get outcompeted.) There's something about a lot of economists where, when they have some model and reality disagrees with them, they seem to think reality is wrong, and aren't even inclined to investigate. I'll have to get back to this later. Question 2: Why do Japanese automakers operate some factories in America instead of importing everything from Japan? I can answer this one: Direct labor is generally

Tom welcomes Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report back to the show to discuss metals and bank involvement. Hemke talks about how certain entities are able to manipulate prices and make profits, and how the Commitment of Traders Report reveals these positions. He also discusses the possibility of another short squeeze and how this could impact prices. He then explains why the Commitment of Traders Report is not an ideal trading tool, and breaks down his strategy for making decisions regarding the metals market. Craig then moves on to discuss the economy between the US and Japan, namely the Bank of Japan and the US Dollar. He talks about how the monetary policies of both countries are affecting global markets, and goes on to discuss how the dollar index is being affected. Craig explains why August is always a slow month for trading and speaks on the dangers of servicing the massive US's debt. He also talks about the current and future situation with the Federal Reserve, noting that the jobs report in August could be underwhelming and other factors that will affect Jerome Powell's rate decisions. Craig then suggests that gold prices should start trending upwards in September and rally in October/November. Finally, he encourages patience and believes that the doldrums should end soon. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:30 - COT Reports & Trades5:44 - Bi-Manipulation13:45 - Summer Volume Signals16:53 - DXY Levels & Psychology20:49 - Dollar/Yen & BOJ25:52 - Fed, Debt & Deficits28:39 - Magnitude of Problems32:30 - Mortgage Rates & Lags36:50 - 70+ Year Mortgages38:10 - Silver Supply Deficits41:00 - Jobs Report & Numbers47:36 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Craig explains how large entities manipulate the commodities market. His strategy of identifying large speculators positions can help predict price rallies. He suggests that gold prices will rally in October and November due to current positioning and COT reports. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/TFMetalsWebsite: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/subscribe Craig Hemke, aka "Turd Ferguson," was a licensed securities "professional" for nearly twenty years. Then, disgruntled by the fraud known as "financial services," he retired to a career as a serial entrepreneur in 2008. Though otherworldly in his ability to forecast price movements, Craig is not a soothsayer, a psychic, or a witch, but, after all these years, he has a decent understanding of the forces at play in the precious metal "markets."

The Nikkei Average remains well bid while USDJPY feels a bit more top-heavy. In contrast JPY rates and JPY basis remain little changed. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses Japanese life insurance company fiscal year 2022 earnings, International Transactions in Securities data and the upcoming BoJ policy meeting. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

The Nikkei Average continues its upward climb. USDJPY has kept pace, topping the 140-mark. On the other hand, JGB yields and JPY basis have remained little changed. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews asset price developments during May and looks ahead to June based upon BoJ monetary policy and fiscal and monetary fund flows. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

The Nikkei Average and Dollar/Yen keep climbing higher. Meanwhile, Yen rate and Yen cross-currency basis remain little changed. Now that the G7 Summit in Hiroshima is over, speculation about whether Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will disband the Lower House and call for elections is growing. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido gives his view on triggers in the wake of the G7 Summit in Hiroshima as well as his analysis of the latest April JSDA data. He also shares his outlook for spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Dollar/Yen is higher, Yen rates are little changed, and Yen cross-currency basis has started to widen slightly. Major Japanese banks have released their FY23 earnings results in mid-May, to be followed by major lifers. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will be watching financial system stability as he determines his next monetary policy steps. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses recent political developments, cross border flows, and implications for financial markets. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

The Bank of Japan voted to keep monetary policy unchanged at the April Monetary Policy Board meeting, but also made some significant changes including ending its forward guidance for rates and strengthening its outlook for inflation. New Governor Kazuo Ueda started his term by announcing a comprehensive review of BoJ monetary policy, we believe differences between the new and previous BoJ Governor are slowly becoming apparent. USDJPY is up and JPY rates down. This price action is consistent with Japanese life insurance company fiscal year 2023 investment plans which were released last week. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews the April Bank of Japan meeting, discusses Japanese life insurance company investment plans and shares potentially triggers for Japanese markets in May. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

The unified local elections are nearing an end, with strong showings by ruling party candidates. With no discernable upward stress on JPY rates, the Tokyo market clearly expects Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda to take his time adjusting monetary policy. Yen cross-currency basis and Dollar / Yen have been relatively stable. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the Lower House elections and shares his outlook for the Bank of Japan meeting this week. He also shares his views on spot Dollar / Yen, Yen rates, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Dollar / Yen is well supported and judging from the speed of the reversal of yen rate declines and yen basis widening, the spread of risk from US and European financial unease to the Tokyo market has been limited. The market may have avoided major turmoil at the end of the fiscal year, but cross-asset flows and markets still need to be monitored for signs of stress. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido evaluates the current state of the market after the outbreak of financial unease in Europe and the United States, and discusses US TIC and JSDA securities investment flow data. He also shares his views on spot USDJPY, Yen rates, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Japan's markets have reacted to the banking issues in the U.S. and Europe in classic financial crisis/risk aversion fashion, with JPY rallying, JPY rates falling, and JPY basis widening. Japanese investors are passively watching the credit jitters in the U.S. and European banking sector, but they are being impacted considerably, given their sizeable stock overseas assets suggesting they will be monitoring global financial markets closely. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido shares his views regarding the credit concerns in the U.S. and European financial sector and his outlook for JPY cross assets and discusses the collaboration among six central banks for boost USD liquidity funding. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

The Bank of Japan's decision to stay the course at its March meeting was the calm before the Silicon Valley Bank collapse's storm. Over the near term, market participants will remain on guard and USDJPY and JPY rates will inevitably fall. JPY basis could be mixed, depending on duration. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews the BoJ's March Monetary Policy meeting, discusses his expectations regarding the government-BoJ joint statement as well as his outlook for BoJ monetary policy. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

USDJPY has stopped rising while 10-year JGB yields remain stuck at 0.50%. The Nikkei Average is up and risk sentiment is positive. Japanese investors have been rebuilding their foreign bond positions ahead of the end of fiscal year 2022. Japanese investors' foreign bond flows are stronger than JPY bond flows among foreigners. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido previews the March Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Board meeting and shares his outlook for JPY rates in March. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

The spotlight has been on the vetting process for the Bank of Japan leadership nominees in the Diet since last Friday. The process has been smooth so far, and USDJPY has not been volatile but outgoing BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda could still spring a surprise at his last Monetary Policy Board meeting in March. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido shares his impressions of the BoJ leadership nominee hearings and considers the implications for JPY basis and JPY rates. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

The announcement of the nominations for the new Bank of Japan leadership has been slow to materialize, but the nomination should be formally announced by the time this episode is published. Given it is likely that LDP political considerations have already been resolved we expect the Diet approval process to be quick. Are higher Dollar/Yen, Yen rates, Nikkei stock prices and wider Yen basis a good sign for the next Governor? In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the BoJ leadership nomination, cross border securities flows and shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Dollar/Yen is up following media reports that current Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya will be nominated as the next head of the central bank. Yen rates are stable, as traders appear to be awaiting the formal announcement. The Chinese Lunar New Year holidays are over, and Yen asset trading among Asian investors has picked back up.  In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses recent media reports about BoJ leadership nominations and shares his outlook across markets in February. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Dollar/Yen has been trading around 130, and Yen rate volatility has eased with the BoJ's December surprise a thing of the past after the bank held the line in January. All eyes are on potential nominees for BoJ leadership. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses what to watch during the fiscal year 2023 ordinary Diet session, the nomination process for the next BoJ governor and deputy governors, the shift from Abenomics to the Kishida Administration's New Style of Capitalism, and implications for markets. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Yen rates fell and the Yen has weakened following the January BoJ meeting. The BoJ did not announce any “surprises” this month, but the market is not convinced there aren't any in store. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido analyses investing flows and sentiment among Japanese and foreign investors based on the latest USTIC and JSDA data. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

JGBs rallied, Yen basis widened, and the Yen weakened in the aftermath of the Bank of Japan's January Monetary Policy Board meeting. The surprise decision at the December BoJ meeting stoked speculation in the market about further changes this week. Ultimately, the BoJ stood pat but announced some enhanced lending capabilities that could prove significant.  In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews the January BoJ policy meeting, shares his outlook for monetary policy going forward, and discusses cross-border securities investing flows during December. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.

The Bank of Japan's surprise monetary policy decision in December hastened a sell-off in the JGB market, a drop in Dollar/Yen, and a tightening of Yen cross-currency basis. The government's FY23 budget has grown to JPY114 trillion causing upward pressure on JPY rates to likely persist. We suggest investors watch not only BoJ JGB purchases but also BoJ lending and pooled collateral operations.  In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects the December BoJ meeting, the monetary operations that followed, and what he expects going forward. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Dollar/Yen has rebounded from the lows while super long term JGBs have been volatile. The front end of the USDJPY basis curve continues to tighten while the long end has widened. The Kishida Administration has announced tax hikes and a bigger defense budget, which could increase volatility in the JGB market. Japanese investors also face challenges with managing their JGB and USDJPY positions ahead of year-end. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews Japanese lifers first half fiscal year 2022 earnings and connects them to October securities flow data. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

JGB yields have been little changed as of late, while in contrast, spot Dollar/Yen has fallen sharply, and Yen cross-currency basis has tightened off the wides. Japanese investors have been unloading their foreign bond holdings, while demand for JPY bond asset swaps has been strong among foreigners, which has caused price action into the end of the year to be a little unusual. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews 2022 and gives his outlook for 2023, including changes in JGB issuance. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Dollar/Yen has started to trend downward, trading on either side of the 140-mark. JGB yields have been stable thanks to the Bank of Japan's yield control operations, while cross-currency basis has tightened amidst foreigners' asset swap buying and Japanese investors' foreign bond selling. It is unusual for Dollar/Yen basis to tighten significantly ahead of year end, but 2022 has been an unusual year in many respects and basis is no exception. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the September USTIC and October JSDA, along with MoF investing flows data. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Dollar/Yen and Yen rate have fallen from the highs while cross-currency basis has tightened and the Nikkei Average continues to recover. The front end of the JGB yield curve stabilized after the government announced it will increase issuance of JGBs to fund Prime Minister Kishida's second supplementary budget. Separately, Japanese bank and life insurance companies are releasing their H1 FY22 earnings results, which include details of losses incurred on foreign bond holdings in the recent global bond market rout. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews cross border security investment flows during September and October and sets forth his outlook for the month of November. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

USDJPY has come off the highs as of late. Freight shipping rates and resource prices have started to slip ahead of Thanksgiving, and tight logistics conditions are loosening somewhat despite the persisting stresses of the war in Ukraine. At the same time market pricing has begun to shift and speculation that BoJ Governor Kuroda may change his policy stance has increased. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the impact of the MoF's currency intervention and BoJ monetary operations on the flow of money, as well as what to watch with regards to monetary and fiscal policy. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

USDJPY is off the highs as the Dollar gives back a portion of recent gains. JGB yields reflect the strength of the Bank of Japan's yield control operations as an increase in buybacks last week helped the super long sector recover. USDJPY basis has tightened on both strong demand for JGBs from foreigner investors and Japanese investor selling of foreign bonds. Amidst the market volatility in G10 rate markets and the October BoJ meeting non-event, we expect the Tokyo market to reflect a mixture of JGB flows among Japanese and foreign investors, foreign companies' JPY Samurai bond issuance, and Japanese companies' overseas investing activities. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects H2 FY22 Japanese life insurance company investment plans, discusses the Samurai bond market, and summarizes high points from the BoJ's October policy meeting. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis.  

Currency intervention capped USDJPY at the 152-mark, but Yen selling flows dominate, and the uptrend for USDJPY has not been thrown off course. Upward stresses on JPY rates are deep-rooted, but the BoJ has been able to cap rates with its yield control operations. JPY bond arbitrage trading flows by foreigners and Japanese investors' selling of foreign bonds have caused the belly of the JPY basis curve to tighten, but the front end has been dominated by Japanese investors' funding of USD assets over year-end. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido updates us on the cross asset flows during the month of September and also previews the October BoJ policy meeting. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

The upward trajectory of Dollar/Yen is driving cross-currency basis wider. Yen rate has been relatively stable thus far, which stands in stark contrast to GBP and other G10 bond markets. How the Bank of Japan's yield control policy withstands stresses in Gilt and other global bond markets remains an open question. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews cross-border securities flows during the volatile price action that occurred during the months of August and September, as well as additional insights from the quarterly Tankan survey. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Spot Dollar/Yen has consolidated below 145 after the Japanese Government intervened to buy Yen for the first time since 1998, while Yen rate and basis have been little changed. Going forward an extraordinary session of the Diet is scheduled to convene this month, and we expect the Kishida Administration to announce inflation countermeasures, as well as a second supplementary budget. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses the September BoJ meeting, Tankan survey, and his outlook for Yen assets across markets for the month of October. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Dollar/Yen is now trading in a narrow range below 145 ahead of the FOMC and BoJ September meetings. Yen rate and basis have paused after rising and widening, but we expect volatility to pick up once the BoJ meeting is over. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido dissects the impact of Yen money supply/demand as well as inflationary pressures ahead of the BoJ's meeting. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Dollar/Yen has found solid footing above 140, and Yen rate and basis, as well as the Nikkei Average have leveled off. All eyes remain on the Fed and the U.S. Treasury market for direction on Japanese financial markets.  In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido shares his take on recent cross border investment data and the implications of recent changes to BoJ current deposit accounts, and also discusses developments in the Tokyo repo market during July and August. He also shares his views on Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

USDJPY is through 140. In contrast, JPY rates have risen gradually, JPY cross-currency basis is mixed – tighter in the front end on foreign demand for short-term, while wider in the belly through the long end of the curve – and the Nikkei Average is flat. It would not be unexpected for Japanese exporters to cover USDJPY ahead of the quarter-end, pushing USDJPY even higher. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews what was an eventful end of the summer, shares his outlook for September, and discusses the BoJ's JGB buying plans and the Ministry of Finance's JGB yield assumptions in its FY23 budget proposal. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and cross-currency basis have behaved well as of late, and we expect this to continue. The Nikkei Average has reversed course and rallied reflecting an improvement in risk sentiment. Separately Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has reshuffled his Cabinet early.  In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews Japanese investor activity in foreign markets as reflected in Japanese Ministry of Finance data. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Neither Dollar/Yen FX, JGBs, or Yen cross-currency basis have moved much as of late, ahead of the lull of the Obon summer holiday. Separately, recent torrential rains and flooding damage in Niigata and Yamagata prefectures highlight the great dangers of climate change and the need for the BoJ's climate change operations. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews cross-border security flows and changes to the monetary base during the month of July. He also shares his view on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

JPY rose, JPY rates declined, and JPY basis tightened in July, reversing their trends of April through June. The BoJ made no changes following the assassination of former Prime Minister Abe just ahead of the Upper House elections. In August, we expect external factors to impact JPY rates and basis during the Obon holidays. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews markets in July including the BoJ's July Monetary Policy Board meeting and discusses potential JPY trading triggers for August. He also shares his views on Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Japan remains in mourning after the shock of former Prime Minister Abe's shooting. Recently USDJPY made new highs and JPY basis widened slightly while 10Yr JGB yield has stayed just below the upper band of the BoJ's target. Despite the depreciation of the Yen exporter operations have not strengthened because of supply chain constrictions, while the impact on import prices has been significant. The culprit behind the rise in USDJPY has been net imports in the resource account while foreigners' Yen short positions have not changed much. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido shares his views ahead of the Bank of Japan's July meeting. He also discusses inflation in Japan and shares his views on Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Voting for the Upper House elections got underway following the shocking and tragic assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe last week. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party of Japan scored a big victory in the elections. Over the near term, the Kishida Administration will likely focus on inflation countermeasures. At the same time, security issues both domestic and abroad will also be key policy issues. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses implications for financial markets from Upper House election results, the impact on the Bank of Japan's yield control operations, and securities investing flows in May and June. He also shares his views on spot Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

So far in July, USDJPY, the 10Yr JGB yield, and the Nikkei Average have all stayed in a flat range, while JPY basis has remained wide. With the risk of a global economic slowdown being questioned, developments in G10 bond markets have impacted Japanese investors' overseas bond flows, while foreign investor behavior in the JGB market is also being affected. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses his July outlook for JPY cross assets and Japanese investor behavior based on the June Tankan survey, and reviews BoJ and MoF money flow data for June. He also shares his views on Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

The 10Yr JGB zone has been dented as USDJPY continues to climb and the JGB yield curve steepens. Market speculation about Bank of Japan yield control operations persists ahead of the central bank's June meeting. USDJPY basis has widened in line with U.S. rates. The Nikkei Average is lurching along.  In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido reviews lifers' FY21 earnings results and changes in their asset management portfolios, analyzes JPY cross asset developments in May, and previews the June BoJ meeting. He also shares his views on Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

JPY basis has widened while staying flat amidst a mix of buying and selling as JPY rates have stabilized and the Yen has generally weakened against USD (Monday's price action notwithstanding). The Nikkei Average has started to tick up again slowly. Japanese investors could gradually restore their foreign bond positions as they both buy and sell during the month of June. Separately, June also brings the high season for Samurai bond issuance. In today's episode, MUFG Chief Japan Strategist Takahiro Sekido discusses his outlook for Yen assets, analyzes BoJ operations and fiscal fund flows, and reviews the Samurai bond market. He also shares his views on the Dollar/Yen, Yen rate, and Yen basis. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

The Fed is going to do whatever they have to to control inflation if if it's at the expense of jobs, says Joe Perry. He talks about how the S&P 500 is having the longest losing streak in 22 years. He also looks at the German PPI report, and goes over the pairs trading outlook. He then goes over slowing growth highlighting the U.S. dollar (/DX) and the Yen. Tune in to find out more.

In Episode 250 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with CEO of Santiago Capital and originator of the “Dollar Milkshake” theory, Brent Johnson. Brent and Demetri discuss his thesis on the Dollar as part of a much larger conversation about the sell-off that we're currently experiencing in risk assets, the dislocations we're seeing in currencies and currency pairs like Dollar-Yen, and how to position yourself as conditions change in real-time.  Because so much is happening in markets right now it is challenging to know where to focus your attention, which is why Brent's framework around the role of the US Dollar and its impact on financial flows is crucial for understanding what we're seeing in markets today. We have published countless episodes over the last several years in anticipation of the events that are transpiring today. We think we are in the end-game phase of what in our view has been a forty-year paradigm of falling interest rates, rising debt levels, low inflation, growing inequality, and peak globalization, all of which we believe are in the process of reversing. How that process unfolds and what assets and investments you want to be invested in during this time do not have straightforward answers, but conversations like this one with Brent are crucial in helping you think through the steps required to get you there. You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week's conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 05/12/2022

The war in Ukraine may be a more destabilizing event than many realize. According to GoldMoney's head of Research Alasdair Macleod, it may be accelerating the evolution of a new monetary system comprised of commodity-backed currencies. Alasdair predicts such a regime will favor countries like Russia and China, and threaten to fully expose the worsening problem of purchasing power devaluation that afflicts the current major world fiat currencies – like the dollar, yen and Euro. See the YouTube Video for the charts and graphics: https://youtu.be/szQJoFknlG8