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Lorsqu'il s'agit d'investir en Bourse, on entend souvent que le marché est irrationnel. Dans cet épisode dédié au suivi de tendance, Adrien Picco, expert de cette méthode d'investissement, explique :
Episode 354: David Capablanca aka reverselong gives his thoughts around the topic of being a good loser and having a winning mindset at the same time. Social MediaDavid CapablancaTwitter: reverse_longInstagram: reverselongYouTube: Friendly Bear ResearchProfitly: reverse_long Cobra Trading Click the link and get 33% off commissions for life as well as one month of free DAS Trader PlatformSuccessTrader Mention Friendly Bear when calling up SuccessTrader directly for the best possible dealDilution Tracker Click the link and get 10% off of Dilution TrackerEdgeToTrade Use coupon code FRIENDLYBEAR15 for 15% off EdgeToTrade, the financial research platform for traders.TraderSync Use coupon code FRNLYBR for 15% off monthly, 55% off yearly for TraderSync trading journal software TradeIdeas Use coupon code FRIENDLYBEAR for 15% off TradeIdeas real-time data stock scannerFlashSEC Click the link and get 15% off 12 months of FlashSECDisclaimer: This post contains affiliate links. If you make a purchase, I may receive a commission at no extra cost to you.Support the show
My guest today is Larry Hite, a hedge fund manager, who, along with those like Ed Seykota, is one of the forefathers of system trading. He has been profiled and recognized as one of the best in the industry in numerous major international publications. He co-founded Mint Investments in 1981. By 1990, Mint had become the largest Commodity Trading Advisor in the world in terms of assets under management. In 1990, Jack Schwager dedicated a chapter of his bestselling book, Market Wizards to Hite's trading and risk management philosophy. The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: “Don't bet your deli to win a pickle.” Crypto and trend following The asymmetric option of David Ricardo's golden rules Buy, sell, and bet the correct way A system where you cut your losses and let your winners run on The historic trend following performance of 2022 Larry's dyslexia Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!
My guest today is Larry Hite, a hedge fund manager, who, along with those like Ed Seykota, is one of the forefathers of system trading. He has been profiled and recognized as one of the best in the industry in numerous major international publications. He co-founded Mint Investments in 1981. By 1990, Mint had become the largest Commodity Trading Advisor in the world in terms of assets under management. In 1990, Jack Schwager dedicated a chapter of his bestselling book, Market Wizards to Hite's trading and risk management philosophy. The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: “Don't bet your deli to win a pickle.” Crypto and trend following The asymmetric option of David Ricardo's golden rules Buy, sell, and bet the correct way A system where you cut your losses and let your winners run on The historic trend following performance of 2022 Larry's dyslexia Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!
Hola!! Feliz semana para todos ustedes. Continuamos con el seriado sobre las lecciones más importantes de los libros que en nuestra opinión marcaron un antes y un después en nuestro camino del trading. En esta oportunidad hablaremos sobre Market Wizards o Los magos del mercado del autor Jack Schwager. La dinámica será muy similar a los otros episodios, discutiremos un pequeño resumen sobre lo que trata el libro y su autor. Luego continuaremos con las 5 lecciones más importantes que podemos obtener de este maravilloso libro. Market Wizards reúne una variada cantidad de entrevistas a los traders más famosos de la historia como pueden ser: Bruce Kovner, Ed Seykota, Michael Marcus, William O'Neil, entre otros. Durante el libro realiza preguntas a los entrevistados en diversos temas como lo son: Divisas, futuros, stocks, experiencias y psicología del trading. ¡Esperamos que lo disfruten! Saludos Equipo HDT --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/hablemos-de-trading/support
My guest today is Larry Hite, a hedge fund manager, who, along with those like Ed Seykota, is one of the forefathers of system trading. He has been profiled and recognized as one of the best in the industry in numerous major international publications. He co-founded Mint Investments in 1981. By 1990, Mint had become the largest Commodity Trading Advisor in the world in terms of assets under management. In 1990, Jack Schwager dedicated a chapter of his bestselling book, Market Wizards to Hite's trading and risk management philosophy. The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: How simple it is to make money in any kind of market Long Term Capital Management Trend following system as a way to make money in stocks Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!
My guest today is Larry Hite, a hedge fund manager, who, along with those like Ed Seykota, is one of the forefathers of system trading. He has been profiled and recognized as one of the best in the industry in numerous major international publications. He co-founded Mint Investments in 1981. By 1990, Mint had become the largest Commodity Trading Advisor in the world in terms of assets under management. In 1990, Jack Schwager dedicated a chapter of his bestselling book, Market Wizards to Hite's trading and risk management philosophy. The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: How simple it is to make money in any kind of market Long Term Capital Management Trend following system as a way to make money in stocks Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!
Patrick is the founder of Mission Winners. He has had the privilege of meeting and learning from legendary traders like: Martin Zweig, Bill O’ Neil, and Ed Seykota. He was an IBD Meetup co-leader and most importantly, he is a family man, happily married with 4 kids. In Patrick's own words, "My trading and approach to investing is “stolen.” It’s taken from the greats. I’ve tweaked and fine-tuned it over the years. Nevertheless, I owe much to all of them. I love to learn. Love to teach. Love to inspire. Love to help. That is why I’m here." In this special live episode of Smarter Trading, host Evan Medeiros and special guest Patrick Walker, are on camera, sharing their screens, chatting about the current market environment, trade opportunities, and answering your questions. ----- This episode is sponsored by Investor’s Business Daily. IBD has helped investors navigate every market cycle with their time-tested methodology for over 35 years. Right now Smarter Trading podcast listeners can get their first 2 months of IBD Digital, a subscription service that gives you access to IBD’s proprietary market analysis and top trade ideas for only $20 by signing up at investors.com/evan. ----- What you'll learn in this episode 0:00 Stream waiting1:10 Introduction5:05 Year to date 2022 market stats7:00 Patrick Walker's market analysis: S&P500 and Nasdaq 10017:50 Hedging a portfolio versus stop losses and raising cash20:50 Sector and industry analysis30:20 Q&A: Subpar stocks in strong sectors37:15 Q&A: Looking for weakness and shorting stocks42:47 Q&A: Trading chart patterns versus moving averages46:10 Q&A: Using EMAs crossovers for entries and exits48:15 Q&A: How many stocks should someone hold from the same sector50:47 Q&A: Swing versus trend trading53:20 Q&A: What kinds of returns can you make trading in a year?58:25 Where to find Patrick Walker ----- Connect with Evan & Trade Risk Browse the entire Smarter Trading podcast catalog Watch this episode in video on our YouTube channel Follow @evanmedeiros on Twitter Follow @TheTradeRisk on Twitter Join the Trade Risk's weekly newsletter ----- If you enjoyed this week's epis
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Jack Schwager on the worlds greatest unknown traders.An interview with Jack Schwager, the author of The Market Wizards series of books, on his new book, Unknown Market Wizards. Jack has been involved in financial markets for over 45 years, he worked as a market analyst, a trader, managed institutional portfolios of managed accounts, and has written extensively on the futures industry. He is most famous for his Market Wizards series of books, interviews with great traders in all financial markets. He has just released the newest installment of that series Unknown Market Wizards, which I reviewed in my Top Ten Books for Traders list earlier this week. Schwager has interviewed Bruce Kovner, David Shaw, Paul Tudor Jones, Ed Seykota, Michael Steinhardt, William O'Neill, William Eckhardt, Monroe Trout, Stanley Druckenmiller, Mark Ritchie, Blair Hull, Larry Hite, Jim Rogers, Edward Thorp, Richard Dennis, and many more of the worlds most famous and highest returning traders.Patrick Boyle asks Jack about the characteristics these great traders have in common, what it takes to be a great trader, and what kind of returns do market wizards make in the long run. They discuss the efficient markets hypothesis, risk management, and how markets change over time.Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceUnknown Market Wizards by Jack Schwager: https://amzn.to/3om6SHJJack Schwager Author Page on Amazon: https://amzn.to/3mBTq1LJack's Website: https://jackschwager.com/Patrick's Books:Statistics for the Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives for the Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Visit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyleFind Patrick on YouTube at: https://www.youtube.com/c/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceSupport the show (https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance)
It's hard to get too far into the words Trend Following without running into the name Michael Covel. If you've ever looked into the strategy type, his name is there. From speeches to his many books, the aptly named Trend Following Radio and his trend following twitter thread, Michael has been digging into the philosophy and people in and around trend following for nearly 24 years. And as our guest on today's pod, we cover a large span of topics including: living in Vietnam, first COVID flight, market wizard to turtle traders, the Jerry Parker inspiration, great stories from legends like David Harding, Tom Basso, Ed Seykota, Mike Shannon; history of turtle trading, Michael's array of trend books, Trend Following Radio, all-start guests, the different (unfair) standard for managed futures and trend following, trend following battles, what's what of trend following, long vs short term trend following, the Chinese and Vietnamese markets, and becoming an investment personality. Chapters: 00:00-2:39 = Intro 02:40-10:56 = A life Abroad 10:57-26:19 = Move to Trend Following & Successful Author 26:20-46:39 = Legendary Stories 46:40-01:02:01 = Drawdowns & Figuring out the Philosophy 01:02:02-01:08:33 = What's the Asia Investor Mentality? 01:08:34-01:12:49 = How New Managers can Navigate the Social Media World 01:12:50-01:26:20 = Favorites From the episode: The Whipsaw Song – Ed Seykota Get updates on Michael and his work by listening to Trend Following Radio, following him on Twitter and checking out his website. Order his books: Trend Following, The Complete Turtle Trader, Trend Commandments, and The Little Book of Trading. And last but not least, don't forget to subscribe to The Derivative, and follow us on Twitter, or LinkedIn, and Facebook, and sign-up for our blog digest. Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations, nor reference past or potential profits. And listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. For more information, visit www.rcmalternatives.com/disclaimer
This is the podcast interview we have been waiting to do all year. We have been huge fans of the Market Wizards series of books since the first one landed with a splash in 1989. That was a time when trading had first exploded beyond the confines of the old-fashioned stock and commodity exchanges. There were new futures floors, new instruments, and rapid expansion of trading activities buoyed by the growth of futures and derivatives contracts and juiced up by the early computerised trading systems.Through a series of interviews for the book Jack Schwager introduced the world to trading legends, until then relatively unknown outside their small corner of the world. Traders such as Michael Marcus, who busted time after time after time, before finally growing $30,000 into $80,000,000 over a 10-year period. We learned of the wisdom of Ed Seykota, the feats of Paul Tudor-jones, and the skills of Richard Dennis. Jack introduced us to the Trading Turtles, and to many quotes which even now people repeat over and over again as inspirations. Schwager followed up the original book with 3 more outstanding versions, the New Market Wizards, Stock Market Wizards, and Hedge Fund Wizards, and now he has done it again, taking us in one sense back to the beginning and in another sense into the 2020s, with Unknown Market Wizards.We were delighted to have a chance to talk with chat, and for once Jack the interviewer, become Jack the interviewee. You can hear the fantastic insights Jack shares with us in his own words from years of talking to and working with the best around.It was a pleasure for us to this interview, and we are sure you will get something from it, whether you are new to the scene, or like us, have been around the markets for decades. You can find out more about Jack Schwager at his website https://jackschwager.com/Jack is also a partner of Fundseeder, a financial data and analytics company which provides a free trader platform that provides performance analytics, data tracking, and monetization opportunities for promising traders. You can find out more about Fundseeder at https://fundseeder.com
Napoleon Hill’s famous book THINK AND GROW RICH. It’s the “business bible” of hedge fund managers and other high earning entrepreneurs. This episode takes a look at its teachings. And offers a fresh perspective on how to make its advice more believable in the modern age. Welcome to How to Make More Money, a podcast that helps you get seriously good at the game of making serious money. I'm your host Kelly Hollingsworth, and I'm thrilled you're here today. Today I thought we would dive right in and discuss Napoleon Hill's famous book, THINK AND GROW RICH and specifically how we can take its teachings and dial them up a notch to create a contemporary approach to making money that meets the demands of this century. If you haven't read THINK AND GROW RICH in a while, or if you haven't read it at all, I don't suggest that you rush right out to buy this book. In my mind, there are better books on the subject of making serious money, but I came up in the hedge fund industry and THINK AND GROW RICH is the Bible in that business. So let's not dismiss this book entirely out of hand. Many of the highest earning business owners on the planet love this book for good reasons. So today I'd like to recap it's major lesson and why it's so valuable. And then I'd like to add a few thoughts of my own to help all of us make this idea that you can THINK AND GROW RICH a little more believable and more applicable to a modern business environment. So the book opens with its famous introduction, "Truly, thoughts are things," that's a quote. "Truly, thoughts are things." What Hill means by this is the basic gist of the book that men really do THINK AND GROW RICH. He mentions women too here and there in the book. So women are of course not excluded. If you have a human brain, women included, you can use it to make money. The idea that money is created twice, first in your mind, and then in reality, isn't new, nor is it controversial. We convey this concept in many different ways. Napoleon Hill says, "Thoughts are things, men really do think and grow rich." In the modern parlance of Jack Canfield and others we say, "What you think about you bring about." Brooke Castillo would say that, "Thoughts create results." Ed Seykota says that, "Everyone gets what they want." All of this is super powerful and super helpful, but if you're struggling to make money, believing that money comes from your mind can feel like a tall order. Can you really just think and grow rich? So here, my background is a lawyer is going to come in very handy because the answer is yes, and no. And now I'll explain why. The premise of THINK AND GROW RICH, that thoughts are things and that men truly can think and grow rich is illustrated in the books retelling of the story of Edwin C Barnes. Barnes had a burning desire to become a business associate of the great inventor Thomas Edison. Barnes didn't know Edison and didn't have any money to travel to East Orange, New Jersey where Edison lived, but his desire was definite. So he hopped a freight train, presented himself at Mr. Edison's laboratory and announced he had come to go into business with the inventor. And everyone laughed. And Edison gave him a job sweeping floors for nominal compensation, but Barnes' desire was so great that he kept showing up to the lab and doing the menial work until an opportunity to partner with Edison presented itself. Edison’s salesmen weren't enthusiastic about a new invention called the Edison dictating machine later known as the Ediphone, which is I understand thinks was an early version of the tape recorder. In any case, Barnes was excited about the Ediphone and he stepped in with a plan to distribute this invention. Distribution went well according to THINK AND GROW RICH and Barnes became wealthy as a result of his partnership with Edison. That's the basic story. From it, Hill gleans 13 principles that sum up to the idea that you can use your mind to make serious money. And I first encountered this idea as a 20 something hayseed from Idaho who landed her first real job in the hedge fund industry. Initially, I was a fraud examiner. I flew around the country examining both legit and illegitimate hedge funds, looking for improprieties. And that's where I first began meeting these guys who managed hedge funds and who believed that you can think and grow rich and who worship at the throne of Napoleon Hill. And yes, when I say they were guys, I mean, they were all guys. I'm the only woman I know who has managed her own hedge fund. But in any case, as I said earlier, all these guys think that their Bible is THINK AND GROW RICH. That's the Bible of that business. And at the time when they were sharing this idea with me, I hadn't read the book and it made perfect sense to me that this idea you can think and grow rich would work for hedge fund managers because what do hedge fund managers do? They think about what to do in the market, and if they think that in the right direction, i.e. to buy when the market's going up, or sell when it's going down, then they do make money. They do get rich. It wasn't until later, this made sense to me initially, it wasn't until later when I actually sat down to read the book that I realized that the idea of think and grow rich was intended by the book to apply not just to hedge fund managers, the book was intended to apply to everyone no matter what business you're in. And that was a head scratcher for me. And here's why. If all you're doing is trading financial instruments, it's just you versus the market's direction, what's in your mind is all that matters. However you play it, buy low and sell high or sell high and buy low, trading is a one person game. Yes, of course, there's someone on the other side of the trade who's selling the financial instrument that you're buying or buying what you're selling. But as long as there's liquidity in the market and a stock or a futures exchange between the two of you, you don't have to know them and they don't have to know you for a transaction to occur. They don't even have to agree with you. And they don't agree with you. They're taking the other side of the trade. So it's necessarily the case that they don't agree with you. So if you're a trader and not an entrepreneur, you could live in a cave, never come into contact with another human soul and do just fine making money with your own thinking and a working internet connection. But business is different. When we're talking, not about trading financial instruments, but about selling goods or services in the marketplace, then what happens? We see that business is a two person game. It takes a customer to make money in commerce. So what's in your mind isn't all that matters when you're an entrepreneur. When it takes two to tango, you don't just need to worry about your own thoughts, you need to worry about the other person's thoughts. What your customer is thinking. Does he or she agree to buy from you or not? Do your prospects need or desire what you sell or not? When we think about business as a two person game, as the two person game that it is, this is where it becomes readily apparent that the power of one mind, your own in entrepreneurship, isn't going to be enough to get you there. In commerce, money doesn't come from your mind all by itself, but rather from a meeting of the minds between buyer and seller. Which brings me to a joke I have loved since I saw it in a standup comedians act years, or maybe even decades ago. I don't remember when it was, I don't remember his name, but I'll never forget what he said. He talked about going away to college for his freshman year and when he came home after the first semester, he told his dad, "I've decided to major in philosophy." And he said that "This is of course every parent's dream." His dad thought about this for a minute and then said to his son, "Hmm, why don't you get a double major in communications? Because then you'll be able to think out loud." Why did the dad in the joke recognize the need for his son to be able to think out loud? Because he doesn't want his son living in the basement. The moment the kid says philosophy with no other skills attached to it, the dad gets a vision of the kid living in the basement, perhaps forever. It's instantly and abundantly clear to this father with all his common sense, that mindset isn't enough. If his kid is going to make any money, he can't just think, he has to be able to think out loud and do it well enough for others to want to buy whatever it is that he's selling. This is the missing piece that has always bothered me about the story of Edwin C. Barnes and his partnership with Edison in the book, THINK AND GROW RICH. To be fair, Hill addresses the need for a meeting of the minds in the first few pages of the book. He doesn't use those words, but there's an excerpt in the book in which Hill describes what Edison had to say years after his first encounter with Barnes. Here's a quote. Edison is being quoted here. "He stood there before me looking like an ordinary tramp, but there was something in the expression of his face which conveyed the impression that he was determined to get what he had come after. I had learned from years of experience with men that when a man really desires a thing so deeply that he is willing to stake his entire future on a single turn of the wheel in order to get it, he is sure to win. I gave him the opportunity he asked for because I saw he had made up his mind to stand by until he succeeded. Subsequent events proved that no mistake was made." That's the end of the quote. That's Edison talking. Of this quote by Edison, Napoleon Hill goes on to say, "Just what young Barnes said to Mr. Edison on that occasion was far less important than what he thought. Edison himself said so. It could not have been the young man's appearance, which got him his start in Edison's office, for that was definitely against him. It was what he thought that counted. If the significance of this statement could be conveyed to every person who reads it, there would be no need for the remainder of this book." I agree that it's a significant statement. What Barnes thought when he met Edison, mattered. So let's repeat this part to make sure it sinks in. "Just what young Barnes said to Mr. Edison on that occasion was far less important than that which he thought. Edison himself said so." With this, I wholeheartedly agree. Belief in your product comes first. Without it what you say isn't going to help you much if at all but let's not forget something really important. Edison's quote that I just read to you about his first encounter with Barnes occurred years after their first meeting and years after their fruitful partnership. With the benefit of hindsight, Edison could recast that story and essentially say something along the lines of "Yes, of course I knew I was going to go into business with Barnes. I took one look at him and I knew he meant business." And this is essentially what he did say. And I quote, "When a man really desires a thing so deeply that he is willing to stake his entire future on a single turn of the wheel in order to get it, he is sure to win. I gave him the opportunity that he asked for." But is that what really happened in the famous first encounter between Barnes and Edison? Did Barnes walk into the lab with that thought, I'm going into partnership with Edison, looking like an ordinary tramp and who knows what he actually said and get what he wanted. Was just the thought enough to get it done? No. In that first encounter, the thought was not enough. Barnes did not get the opportunity he asked for. He wanted a partnership with Edison. And in that first encounter, he received not a partnership, but a broom. Today in many businesses around the world, if this encounter happened just as it's described in THINK AND GROW RICH, Barnes would have gotten not a broom, but the boot. So what can we glean from this? What you think matters. Your belief, a product of your brain matters. But why does it matter? If you don't believe, your buyer won't either. So belief is important because it's a big contributor to creating that all important meeting of the minds that is inherent in every commercial transaction. But here's the thing, it's necessary but insufficient. Mindset is what got Barnes in the door. It got him a job sweeping floors. What got him the partnership with Edison was not mindset, but the message of how he was going to distribute the Ediphone. That's what sealed the deal. So it's not just enough to be able to think. You also have to be able to think out loud and to do so well enough that it creates a meeting of the minds between you and your buyer. What I'd like you to take from this is that if you want to make money and you're not trading your own money using stocks or derivatives or doing something else that you can do all by yourself in the comfort of your cave, if you are instead in business and you want some clients to buy the amazing product or service that you're offering, what's in your mind, isn't all that matters. Mindset plus message equals money. That's the formula because people can't read your mind. What people hear in your message is what causes them to buy, not just what's in your mind. So that's what I have for you today my friends. The foundation of our work in the show is going to be based on the formula, mindset plus message equals money. So stay tuned for more on how to do that and thank you for being here today.
This podcast discusses Ed Seykota's famous quote "If you can't take a small loss, sooner or later, you will take the mother of all losses" Traders or investors need to be willing to take losses when they are small, before they bigger and bigger - eventually you'll take a major loss. Read the article : Can't take a small loss? Be ready to take the mother of all losses!
Subscribe to the show By placing your buy stops above the market, above key inflection points, you put yourself in a place to anticipate the bigger moves. You are also letting the market come to you as opposed to chasing a trade that you feel regrets about because you feel you missed it. [Chasing trades will kill you if not now, eventually.] If you don't get filled, perfect. It wasn't worth being in. Probably random daily noise. Come back and ENTER THE SAME ORDER tomorrow. You've just created a filter by being patient and waiting for the momentum to hit and trade through your buy stop. How do you feel now? Do this enough and you'll be on your way to calibrating your emotional intelligence with your trading tactics. If you can't learn this "feeling tone" of trading, I promise you that you will NEVER catch the moves that Michael Marcus and Ed Seykota do and did. This is the single most important thing I can teach you. It's not about chart patterns. Click here to get your free copy of The Inner Voice of Trading audiobook and learn about how I feel when I'm trading my best.
Ed Seykota lives his genuine self. "If I can't play music, something dies"
Michael plays three epic interviews with Ed Seykota, Martin Lueck and Jean-Philippe Bouchaud profiled in chapter’s 12, 13 and 14 of his newest edition of Trend Following: How to Make a Fortune in Bull, Bear and Black Swan Markets. Ed Seykota was originally profiled in the classic book “The Market Wizards.” Seykota has played a pivotal role in the growth of trend following trading for 40 years. Martin Lueck holds an M.A. in Physics from Oxford University and currently is the Research Director and President of Aspect Capital. Lueck was originally with Adam, Harding and Lueck Limited (AHL), which he co-founded with Michael Adam and David Harding. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud is founder and Chairman of Capital Fund Management (CFM) and professor of physics at École polytechnique. In this episode of Trend Following Radio: Govopoly Systems trading Diversification Behavioral economics Death of trend following Exploiting vs. exploring Behavioral biases Risk
By trading a complete trading system, you solidify places in your trading where your success can break down. Relying on system-generated trades, you get to focus on high expected value trades and eliminate the sub-optimal trades. Benefits of a complete trading system: A good cure for daily set-ups is a systematized set of rules. It takes out all the uncertainty around your decision making process. That can give you a sense of confidence and self-esteem. You get to trade from a place of personal power. Hard to make money trading long term without confidence. You won't have to interpret any chart patterns: the price will pick up anything about the instrument that is bullish or bearish. You will therefore be cured of the need to massage charts all day and night, thereby freeing up hours of time each day and the brain power that goes with it. You can trade any market around the world. You can blend several trading systems like an asset allocation to smooth out your equity curve. For example, you can put 40% in a breakout system and 60% in a moving average system. Or, you can put 50% in a short to intermediate trend following system, and 50% in a long term trend following system. Possibilities are endless. You don't need subscriptions, chat rooms, or premium research. Systems and Emotions Systems don't remove emotions from your trading although that has been included in many marketing materials. I believe that began by a clever marketer who doesn't trade and wouldn't know if that statement was true or not. You still have to put on the trades, and if you experience fear around losing money or greed around not making enough, you can hijack the system and blow up. Ed Seykota set up the Incline Village Trading Tribe for traders to get in touch with their feelings and psychology around trading for this very reason. We never spoke about trades, set-ups, or chart patterns. It was not only a complete snooze to do so, those don't help a trader become profitable. They do, however, provide fodder for good conversation and for building relationships and bonding I guess, but you can do that without becoming a trader if that's what your real goal is - to bond with people. Lastly, I think trading a complete trading system can provide you with a great quality of life. It makes no sense to beat the crap out of yourself to make it as a trader. Martyrs don't get paid and as Jim Morrison sang, "...no time to wallow in the mire..." Build yourself a simple system that takes care of your entries, exits, and position sizing, and in doing so you'll remove the weakest link in your trading: you.
It's been a big week on behavior... You have to be willing to feel all your feelings around trading. What might be holding you back from great success could be your reluctance or lack of willingness to feel new feelings around techniques or trading styles that are different from what you're currently doing. Go back and listen to the "Rituals and Routine" episode. You might understand a trading technique or style intellectually, but you don't know it thoroughly until you've experienced it emotionally and psychologically. Ed Seykota taught me that "the feelings that I don't want to feel have as much power over me (my trading) as the ones I do want to feel." When you are willing to feel all your feelings, none of them can control you. They are all trying to teach you something. Are you open to listening at least? You can test a new system (feeling) with 5 or 10% of your capital. If you trade enough, you'll realize that certain trading styles and techniques are there for the sole purpose of generating the emotions you are willing to feel, even if the trading strategy is an economic bad - day trading, for example. You might be married to your current methodology not because it's the best one for you, but because you like how executing it feels. I suspect this is how most aspiring day traders feel. You get to hang out with other guys, talk shop, have a sense of community, yet practice a belief system around trading that is not effective for long-term success.
Inner Voice of Trading Audiobook - FREE You have to conjugate your feelings with what it is you think you know about trading. If they don't "feel" good, you won't take the signals and you'll spend a great deal of time second-guessing yourself. When you do that, it's emotional not intellectual. You are insecure or lack confidence in what you do. This book discusses how I failed my way to success so to speak in sometimes painful detail. Persistence and determination have a great deal to do with your success in trading, and in most things in your life. For a limited time, get the audiobook for free - no coupon codes. Foreword by Ed Seykota.
Human beings are emotional beings. We all have emotional systems. If you are not connected to your emotions, you are likely to see them emerge when you are under the pressure of trading. A system is a set of rules that you can follow. After you get the system generated order, you have to enter the trade into your platform. That's where the fun starts. The Trading Tribe was set up by Ed Seykota to help traders understand the emotions that would derail one's trading. Scenario 1: you get a system generated order, but you do not enter the trade. Scenario 2: you have no orders for the particular day, but you enter an order on the fly. In both scenarios, there is a variance between your trading system and your emotional system. Befriend your emotions and make them allies not antagonists. They are trying to teach you something.
Michael has had some of the brightest psych minds on his podcast. Today he pulls together the great psych minds in trading into one podcast. Those interviews include: Brett Steenbarger, Jason Williams, Van Tharp, Daniel Crosby, and Meir Statman. Brett Steenbarger is a Clinical Associate Professor of Psychiatry at New York State University, and author of The Daily Trading Coach, The Psychology of Trading, and Enhancing Trader Performance. His newest work is Trading Psychology 2.0: From Best Practices to Best Processes. Jason Williams is author of The Mental Edge in Trading. Jason received his psychiatry degree at John Hopkins. His father is famed trader Larry Williams. Van Tharp runs the Van Tharp Institute and is author of four acclaimed books published by McGraw Hill: Super Trader, Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom, Safe Strategies for Financial Freedom, and Financial Freedom Through Electronic Day Trading. His new book is called Trading Beyond the Matrix. He was also featured in Jack Schwager’s Market Wizard’s: Interviews with Great Traders. Van Tharp received his Ph.D. in psychology. Daniel Crosby is author of The Laws of Wealth: Psychology and the Secret to Investing Success, and co-author of the New York Times bestseller Personal Benchmark: Integrating Behavioral Finance and Investment Management. His background is in behavioral psychology and he sees the markets as a great backdrop to view human behavior in a real world setting. He is also founder of Nocturne Capital. Meir Statman is a professor of finance at Santa Clara University and a behavioral finance expert. His acclaimed book is titled What Investors Really Want. In this episode of Trend Following Radio: Envy and happiness Fear of losing vs Fear of missing out Mental accounting Expert discretion Efficient market theory Human ego Warren Buffett and his trading strategy Passive investing Sigmund Freud’s impact on trading Standard deviation as a proxy for risk Matching “the benchmark” Systems theory Money management vs. Position sizing Ed Seykota’s trading and psychology strategies Tom Basso’s trading and psychology strategies Yoga Training your brain how to think
My guest today is Van Tharp. He runs the Van Tharp Institute and is the author of four acclaimed books published by McGraw Hill: Super Trader, Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom, Safe Strategies for Financial Freedom, and Financial Freedom Through Electronic Day Trading. His new book is called Trading Beyond the Matrix. He was also featured in Jack Schwager's Market Wizard's: Interviews with Great Traders. Van Tharp received his Ph.D. in psychology, is a certified Master Practitioner of Neuro Linguistic Programming (NLP), a Certified Master Time Line Therapist, a certified Modeler of NLP, and an Assistant Trainer of NLP. The topic is his book Trading Beyond the Matrix: The Red Pill for Traders and Investors. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Systems theory Money management vs. Position sizing Ed Seykota's trading and psychology strategies Tom Basso's trading and psychology strategies Yoga Training your brain how to think Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!
Van Tharp is on today’s podcast. It is his third appearance on the show. Van runs the Van Tharp Institute and is the author of four acclaimed books published by McGraw Hill: Super Trader, Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom, Safe Strategies for Financial Freedom, and Financial Freedom Through Electronic Day Trading. His new book is called Trading Beyond the Matrix. He was also featured in Jack Schwager’s Market Wizard’s: Interviews with Great Traders. Van Tharp received his Ph.D. in psychology, is a certified Master Practitioner of Neuro Linguistic Programming (NLP), a Certified Master Time Line Therapist, a certified Modeler of NLP, and an Assistant Trainer of NLP. Michael starts the podcast asking Van how he felt the year Eugene Fama and Robert Shiller won the Nobel Prize. Van has a long standing theory that those who win the Nobel Prize are just supporting the ideas of the status quo. It is meant to propel the majority into believing they are in the right. Trend following does nothing to support the status quo, therefore Van says that Michael and himself will not be winning the Nobel Prize anytime soon. People looking for help constantly approach Van. Michael asks, “What is it like to observe the learning of people who come into your world?” Van goes into the steps he takes new students through when teaching them how to trade. He shares some typical biases that new traders have when starting their training. He first teaches people to understand that they need to take total responsibility for what happens to them while trading. If was easy to make money in the markets then big money would make it hard to participate in the game, but since it is not easy to make money in the markets, they make it easy to join. Michael switches gears and asks, “When were you first exposed to the ‘how much’ question?” Van says that it was at a workshop with Ed Seykota. Seykota asked, “What is the most important factor in your trading?” Van responded, “Well, It’s you.” And Seykota said, “No, it’s how much.” It all starts with how much you are willing to lose and how much you can afford to lose. Michael moves on to ask “Are there anymore interesting things that you learned from working with Ed Seykota?” Van shares a story about Seykota and the psychology behind what makes him such a legendary trader. He moves on to share some stories about another legendary trend following trader, Tom Basso. Van shares personal stories about how he conducted his business and trading. Discretionary trading is the next topic. Van says, “If you are a pure discretionary trader, it seems to me that it would be very difficult to implement some of the position sizing methodologies that are in your work.” A trader needs to know when something is not working anymore. You need to be aware of market changes, and subtle changes in that market that no longer works. Michael ends the podcast asking, “Who changed your thinking in your life? Who helped to send you down this path?” Van started his business around 1982, which coincidentally was probably the low point in his life. He went to a life science church that helped him work on himself. He can’t pinpoint a specific event or person that has molded him into who he is right now, it was a collaboration of events and people. In this episode of Trend Following Radio: Systems theory Money management vs. Position sizing Ed Seykota’s trading and psychology strategies Tom Basso’s trading and psychology strategies Yoga Training your brain how to think
Michael Covel interviews Josh Hawes. Josh is the Risk Officer and Investment Manager of Hawking Alpha. He is a trend following trader now who started off at Goldman Sachs. Josh breaks apart the trading industry, highlighting many of the cons associated with the mutual fund space. Josh has always had a passion for math. He started looking at the performance of different funds within Goldman. As soon as he started to look at returns of some, he began to see a disconnect. They would judge themselves off “beating the index” but they were still losing massive amounts of money. They would also have access to CEO’s of top companies and still not be able to make money off of the information they would share. This is when he began to transition out of the company and turn to other forms of trading, not just long only. Josh was given many books to read while at Goldman. “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator” was one that resonated with him the most. “Trend Following” was another book that Josh had come across. “Trend Following” triggered him to reach out to some of the traders mentioned in the book. Ed Seykota and Jerry Parker were just a couple of the traders he was able to spark up a conversation with by reaching out. Next, Michael and Josh break apart index investing. Josh says everyone should ask themselves, “Why does the market owe you anything? And if the market goes down, does that not mean that the markets can go down for a long period of time?” You can’t say that you should go long the market because for 200 years the market has gone up. There has been massive ups and downs and you have to be able to navigate the down periods. Michael then asks, “How does one become the next Warren Buffett?” Josh says that 2008 is one of the best examples of why you could never be the next Warren Buffett. There are a lot of people in the mutual fund space that try and mirror Buffett. Some of these people fail trading the exact strategy as Buffett. So does that make Buffett lucky or a genius? Josh and his firm guarantees to always follow their stops. He guarantees his clients that he will be a trend follower and although he can not guarantee any level of return, he will always follow his stops. This sets Josh and other trend followers apart from fundamental traders. Josh then segues into what he believes are the four ways to make money: When prices move, when prices don’t move, arbitrage, and high frequency trading. He expands on these four points and gives examples. Michael and Josh end the podcast on the importance of talking directly with clients and connecting with people on a personal basis. In this episode of Trend Following Radio: Trading off fundamentals Keeping up with the Jones’s Smooth equity curve’s Concept of an Index Mutual fund industry 10,000 hours Arbitrage High frequency trading
If you could ask anything to the man who has interviewed the world’s top traders, what would it be? In this episode Jack Schwager, author of the legendary Market Wizard series, discusses writing his books and the answer to that seminal question - what are the characteristics of great traders? Jack also discusses FundSeeder, his new project designed to find the undiscovered great traders. Jack Schwager Jack Schwager wrote Market Wizards to capture the characteristics of great traders through their stories. Starting with Michael Marcus and then Ed Seykota, he went on a cookie crumb trail around the USA and created the legendary Market Wizards series. Filled with timeless truths the books are classic literature for every trader. In this interview hear how the Market Wizard series evolved, what Jack Schwager learnt from writing it, and the seminal question to ask the Market Wizard himself – what characteristics make a great trader to set them apart from everyone else? Jack discusses two traits in detail: 1. There is NO ONE WAY TO MAKE MONEY IN THE MARKETS and you have to find an approach that fits your belief system. Many Market Wizards view each other’s trading approach with complete cynicism and they often have conflicting opinions 180 degrees apart. ‘There are a billion ways to make money in the markets. Unfortunately they are all difficult to find.’ - Jack Schwager 2. You need complete FLEXIBILITY and LACK OF LOYALTY to a share. Great traders are able to change their direction on a dime, not only are they able to get out but they are able to flip positions. Jack also discusses FundSeeder, his new project to discover undiscovered trading talent and connect them with investors. To find out more go to www.fundseeder.com
Michael Covel speaks to the timelessness of being a contrarian. He starts off sharing a recent email received. The email suggested Michael tone down the trend following talk and work with people to help find their calling in life. This email dovetails into an excerpt Michael plays of high school football coach, Kevin Kelley.Coach Kelley is a contrarian thinking football coach. He is known for never punting and onside kicks after every touchdown. Coach Kelley ran the numbers and figured out the probability of winning with punting as opposed to going for it. He has had tremendous success from doing things differently and creating his own answers on the field.Next Michael reads an article from Andy Staples, “The power of not punting: Why a college coach should adopt Kevin Kelley’s unconventional philosophy.” Andy Staples, a writer for Sports Illustrated, was curious about Coach Kelly and his unconventional coaching, so he visited one of Coach Kelley’s games. During that game, Coach Kelley had to give in and punt on one of his fourth downs. Andy asked, “How hard was it for you to do that?” Coach Kelley replied, “I didn’t really hate it at all. It is what it is if the situation dictates it is something that we have to do. It’s all about winning. It’s never been about anything else.” Coach Kelley’s players don’t win because they never punt and always onside kick, they win because the offense plays as if they are always going to lose. He turns the psychological tables on his opponents, and bases everything off of mathematical statistics. The math indicates that punting is actually the riskier choice.Michael stresses that no matter how much fundamental information you think you may have, you are lying to yourself. The only thing that you can rely on in the markets is the price data. The only way to get ahead is to be a contrarian. Michael ends paraphrasing Ed Seykota, “Everyone gets what they want, win or lose. If you lose a lot you got exactly what you wanted, to lose.” In this episode of Trend Following Radio: Math in football Thinking like a contrarian Risk management Fundamentals
Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel talks prediction. He opens with an excerpt from Seth Godin on how he thinks 2016 will unfold. His predictions are based on events that have always happened and will always happen, poking fun at the idea of having a “crystal ball look” into the future.Michael moves on to market timing and reads an excerpt from The Institutional Investor titled, “Market Timing is Back in the Hunt for Investors.” The article states that market timing can be done correctly if you use a combination of trend following and contrarian views. Michael disagrees with the article stating that you need diversification. You can’t pick one stock and try and predict the top or bottom. Making that kind of bet on one market will bankrupt you. You need a portfolio of diverse markets so your winners can pay for your losses.Michael then plays three clips from Daniel Kahneman on overconfidence, playing odds, and why we make the choices we do when spending money. Most of what we read in the paper is about overconfidence. People put a lot more weight on negative events then on positive ones. However, many decisions people make are optimistic. Kahneman says it is good that we have a lot of optimism in society. Unfortunately, over confidence and loss aversion seem to work in opposite directions. Most do not know the odds when they take risks. People save and borrow at the same time. Investors tend to view each stock they buy as an individual account rather than part of a bigger picture. These are just a few examples of how society as a whole is generally narrow-minded. Kahneman shows how intricately trading and psychology are linked together throughout the three clips. Michael finishes up the podcast with Ed Seykota singing. In this episode of Trend Following Radio: Diversification Seth Godin’s 2016 predictions Market timing Understanding psychology in trading Pitfalls of overconfidence
This episode of Talking Trading features Market Wizard peak performance trading coach Dr Van Tharp. From the man who coined the term position sizing we learn in this interview what it takes to go beyond the trading matrix. Van Tharp has worked with some of the greatest traders in the world including Bill Eckhart and Ed Seykota. He has collected psychological data from over 5,000 successful trading profiles and knows what it takes to reprogram yourself to succeed in the markets. Go on… choose the red pill not the blue. Dr Van K Tharp Van Tharp believes the biggest problem facing traders is they think they are qualified when they enter the markets. But if making profits were easy Big Money would make it so hard for people to become a trader it would be impossible. Trading is a profession. It takes time. Dr Van Tharp has modeled trading by collecting over 5 000 successful trading profiles including Ed Seykota and Bill Eckhart. He narrowed down 4 core qualities a trader must have to succeed. Personal Responsibility If you don’t take personal responsibility you can’t change and you can’t improve and you can’t eliminate your mistakes. Commitment You have to really LOVE trading, if you don’t love it you are probably not going to do it. Good psychology Be prepared to work on yourself. Good maths skills and logic. Van Tharp COINED the term POSITION SIZING and he highlights the importance of keeping track of your trades in terms of R multiples and your trading mistakes. He also warns that you don’t trade the markets you trade your beliefs about the markets and it is critical to see if a belief is useful or not. Van is passionate about getting people to live beyond the matrix and to look learn and live beyond societal norms. Go on take the red pill and reprogram yourself. Dr Van K Tharp is holding a workshop in Sydney March 2016. To find out more, register for his free newsletter or to order his bookTrading Beyond The Matrix go to www.vantharp.com
On today’s episode of Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Charles Poliquin. Charles is recognized as one of the worlds most successful strength coaches and has coached Olympic to professional athletes. He speaks with Michael about his new venture with Ed Seykota as well as his vast health and exercise knowledge.Poliquin was Canada’s second youngest black belt at the age of 14, has mastered 6 different martial arts, and is influenced strongly by Bruce Lee, karma and other eastern influences. After getting into karate at the age of 10, he moved into lifting weights at the age of 14 and fell in love instantly with the sport. He took on his first training client in his first year of college at the age of 17 and has named himself the “Strength Sensei ”.Charles gives countless bits of advice on how to keep moving forward in life and fitness: “If you don’t have an expiration date then the goal doesn’t mean anything. There is no pressure.” Keep the competition going with yourself. Also, have a good balance of work and time off. He points out that sleep is one of the most underrated subjects within health and fitness, but it should be a priority. Lastly, Michael and Charles talk about testosterone levels and how they are deeply affecting men and women around the world. Charles explains both the environmental and nutritional basis for low testosterone and why it has such a huge impact on the human mental state.“Progression not perfection is what you should be focusing on. “ --Charles Poliquin“The general who sleeps the most wins the war.” --Charles PoliquinIn this episode of Trend Following Radio: Long distance cardio vs. short sprint workouts The importance of sleep to your health and fitness Meditation and mindfulness How testosterone levels affect the psychology of men and woman Relationship between top athletes and top executives How to stay motivated
On today’s show, Michael Covel talks about decision-making, and how too often people allow the "rules" of others to dictate the actions they take. This, as Michael explains, is indicative of the politically correct culture that’s taken root in all of society. What are we to think when wildly successful comedians such as Jerry Seinfeld, Louis C.K, and Chris Rock flat-out refuse to play college campuses because of the close-minded, irrationally sensitive nature of today’s student bodies? How have we arrived at a place where anything less than absolute conformity to preselected attitudes and beliefs means running the risk of being labeled "something"? Racist? Homophobic? Sexist? The list goes on. What’s worse, as Michael points out, is that this culture of victim-hood has many feeling they’re entitled to certain things simply because they "exist". These are the people who blindly accept societal rules, rather than analyze and develop proper strategy. Good decision-making, whether in trading or everyday life, means developed a plan and a set of rules and then sticking to them. Because in the end, everyone gets what they want (to paraphrase trader Ed Seykota). In this episode of Trend Following Radio: Good decision-making through clarity Examining identity politics Operating under your own rules Political correctness: it’s about agendas Good trading means using your system and your mind The importance of staying focused Want a FREE Trend Follwing DVD? Find it here.
When the market went down in ’08 this weeks guest, Michael Melissinos was right there, in the thick of it. He was an analyst on the trading desk at Bear Sterns, and then later at JP Morgan after they were bought out. Since then, Michael’s left his Wall Street days behind him, and now trades a fund of his own, using a systematic trend following approach, that operates on 40 global markets. Although I missed a large chunk of the story there, you’ll hear how Michael got to this stage of his career during the interview. And a few of the lessons that shaped him into the trader he is today, including the advice he received from Market Wizard, Ed Seykota. I also like Michael’s thoughts around why you should consider playing a game that’s larger than money, and the emphasis he places on preparation.
Many that aspire to be successful investors or traders look up to Warren Buffett as a role model. Yet the chances of anyone amassing that wealth by following the same path as Buffett are extremely unlikely. Debating survivorship bias seems perfectly appropriate, but that's never broached.On the other hand, becoming the next Bill Dunn or Ed Seykota (or fill in the blank with the name of any trend follower) has much more possibility. In the trend following world there are many more successful traders, successful examples, which is much more motivational and inspiring.In this episode, Michael Covel curates excerpts from Kevin Bruce, Jim Simons, and David Harding. All three talking about systems and or trend following. The important point about systems is not just selecting the right one, but also sticking to it once selected. Often people are tempted to make discretionary calls and override a system, defeating its original purpose. Instead, the potential rewards and risks inherent in a trend following system should be evaluated at the beginning, discretionary calls made at the outset, then let the system run without interference. That is the path to potential success. In this episode of Trend Following Radio: The importance of practice and persistence in trading Finding trends mathematically The importance of not overriding systems Being prepared for drawdowns Looking at the S&P 500 as a trading system Dispelling the myths of the mainstream financial world Get a FREE Trend Following DVD here.
My guest today is Ed Seykota, a commodities trader, who earned S.B. degrees in Electrical Engineering from MIT and Management from the MIT Sloan School of Management, both in 1969. In 1970 he pioneered Systems trading by using early punched card computers to test ideas on trading the markets. Originally profiled in the classic book ‘The Market Wizards', Seykota has played a pivotal role in the growth of trend following trading for 40 years. The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Govopoly Trading Tribe Trend Following Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!
Michael Covel speaks with Ed Seykota on his second visit to the podcast. Originally profiled in the classic book 'The Market Wizards', Seykota has played a pivotal role in the growth of trend following trading for 40 years. This conversation breaks down into three parts: Govopoly, the Trading Tribe and trend following. Govopoly is Seykota's most recent book. In it he sees the economy transforming from a free and open societal structure to a controlled structure. The Govopoly system is taking over. It's not about another election to solve this, or to try and fix it. It is what it is and best we can all do is to cope with it. Seykota sees the Trading Tribe as one means of coping. The Trading Tribe is an association of people who commit to excellence, personal growth and supporting and receiving support from each other. The members of the Trading Tribe trade roles, becoming in turn senders and receivers for each other. Lastly, Seykota and Covel discuss trend following. Specifically, Seykota shares early experiences with Richard Donchian and his solo time with mainframes testing some of the first trend systems via computer. Finally, Seykota shares his motivation for his life (and some insights about puzzles).
Michael Covel starts today’s podcast by talking about “robot traders” and major misconceptions. Covel discusses machine learning v. automation and moves into a series of clips that outline trend following philosophy. First, Covel plays a clip from Benoit Mandelbrot to illustrate problems with the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Next, Covel plays two clips from Jim Simons, CEO of Renaissance Technologies, about his experiences as a new trader and on 'luck' (Simons is not a fan of fundamental trading). Building on Jim Simons comes a clip from David Harding of Winton Capital, a multi-billion dollar fund with trend following models at the core. Harding talks about his start, models, math, probabilities, and betting. Next, Covel plays a clip from Salem Abraham. Abraham talks about the markets he trades, and why it doesn’t really make a difference where the money comes from. Covel adds clips from Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, the Co-Founder, Chairman & Chief Scientist of CFM. Covel also plays clips from Svante Bergstrom, Ewan Kirk and trend trading legends William Eckhardt and Ed Seykota. These all tie together to attempt to give a trend trading/quant philosophical stance--the attitude and benefits. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Today on the podcast, Michael Covel interviews Roland Austrup. Austrup is Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer at Integrated managed Futures, part of the IAM group out of Canada. Austrup’s firm comes at trading from a slightly different perspective: very systematic, but also using fundamentals systematically. Austrup and Covel discuss how Austrup got started in the industry, and whether he was always a “quant” thinker; early experiences with Ed Seykota; whether Austrup uses a systematic use of fundamentals or a discretionary use of fundamentals; why systematic can be frightening to certain people; managing risk and the return to risk profile; why Austrup targets a downside volatility of 13%; why “the returns will take care of themselves” if you manage risk correctly; trading trends and not market noise; being on the right side of a trend; the phrase “equity-like returns”; reviewing trend following performance in recent years; why Austrup’s strategy is not based on prediction; the importance of a broadly diversified portfolio; lack of correlation to traditional long-only equities strategies; and the current low rate environment. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel opens up today’s monologue by talking about a music video that he thinks sums up today’s society. Next, Covel highlights a clip of David Harding talking to CNBC. Covel highlights some of the past issues Harding has seen in talking to CNBC and plays the clip. Covel discusses the history of trend following and some of the core big-picture ideas employed by traders like David Harding, Larry Hite, Ed Seykota, Bill Dunn, and others. Covel moves into a Twitter discussion he had recently where he posted a Bloomberg article featuring the most misinformed description of trend following he’d seen yet. When the author responded on Twitter, sparks flew. Covel talks about the lessons learned by the exchange: it’s a great opportunity to clarify what trend following trading is, the question of where one makes their money from, and academic chops. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel discusses a white paper titled "Two Centuries of Trend Following". Covel likes the fact that when he goes through their references, it's all other academic white papers. Then, sandwiched in between the other white papers, "The Complete TurtleTrader" is referenced. Covel posted this on Twitter and received a response in which someone wanted to talk about the last couple of years of trend following performance. Trend following performance is going to differ depending on the trader, what’s in their portfolio, the type of system they’re trading, and the risk they’re taking. There isn't some one magical elixir. Covel believes that you’re better off in the long-term trend following world, rather than in the short-term world. Still, the person Covel interacted with on Twitter was not concerned with the two centuries of trend following that the white paper talked about, but rather, "what have you done for me lately?" Covel moves on to talk about a recent monologue he did concerning a Yahoo Finance article in which he questioned the vocabulary of the talking heads. Covel looks at the responses to that episode, and then the larger view: Most people don’t have the foggiest clue what trading is; what Wall Street is. They’ve been listening to nonsense in the media. The lure is still out there. The buy and hold lure is still out there. But even worse is that "get rich quick" attitude. People don’t understand it as a science. Covel looks at at "The Wolf of Wall Street" and analyzes a segment from the movie. Covel uses it as an example of how most people view money-making and Wall Street. People don’t think like Covel’s podcast guests and writing subjects; they don’t think like Marty Bergin at Dunn Capital or Ed Seykota. This is what Covel is up against. He wants people to understand the science of trading. Covel also notes that his old newsletter system is being changed. If you want to continue to receive Covel’s newsletter, go to trendfollowing.com/subscribe-now. Want a free trend following video? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel reflects on the recent guests he’s had since his last monologue, including guests like Ed Seykota. Covel discusses Seykota’s book, “Govopoly”, and how government and crony capitalism is eating the US from the inside-out. If you have to navigate a system like this, that’s unpredictable at its essence, there’s no better way to maneuver around the chaos than with trend following. Covel discusses how trend following, and being an entrepreneur, gives you freedom. Covel moves on to talks about the 2014 conference in Singapore, where Covel is preparing to have some of the best and brightest names in trend following. Covel then plays a clip from CNBC featuring David Harding. Covel discusses the clip and gives his commentary, discussing momentum and trend following in Harding’s own work, and how the talking heads just don’t get it. Covel questions why CNBC would bring on someone and act like they have no idea of what he does, and spends some time exploring why CNBC would have someone on and ask the questions they ask. Harding also interestingly notes that he is not at the particular conference he is at to learn strategy; Covel explores why Harding might not want to learn strategy at a conference with some of the world’s most powerful people, and what this might mean to the young trader.
My guest today is Ed Seykota, a commodities trader, who earned S.B. degrees in Electrical Engineering from MIT and Management from the MIT Sloan School of Management, both in 1969. In 1970 he pioneered Systems trading by using early punched card computers to test ideas on trading the markets. The topic is his book Govopoly in the 39th Day. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Trend Following Seykota's concerns about our economy The assimilation model and how Seykota sees assimilation happening today The definition of “govopoly” How Seykota's mentor's work plays into Seykota's work today Thinking about systems What we can do to “fix” the economy, or to at least prepare yourself The exponential curve that assimilation takes Noticing things before they're important Why Seykota doesn't provide a “solution” to the problem and instead advocates for the system to correct itself What we can do as people in response to the system Detroit as a microcosm of the US Ways to make money during the assimilation Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!
Michael Covel speaks with Ed Seykota. Seykota was famously first featured in the original “Market Wizards” book. He’s also appeared in Covel’s “Trend Following”. Covel considers Ed a friend and a mentor, and Seykota has provided a major influence on Covel’s work. Their conversation today gets into a bit of trend following, but it’s mostly about Seykota’s new book, “Govopoly”. Together, Covel and Seykota discuss Seykota’s concerns about our economy; the assimilation model and how Seykota sees assimilation happening today; the definition of “govopoly”; how Seykota’s mentor’s work plays into Seykota’s work today; thinking about systems; what we can do to “fix” the economy, or to at least prepare yourself; the exponential curve that assimilation takes; noticing things before they’re important; why Seykota doesn’t provide a “solution” to the problem and instead advocates for the system to correct itself; what we can do as people in response to the system; Detroit as a microcosm of the US; and ways to make money during the assimilation. More.
Today on the podcast, Michael Covel speaks with Yaron Brook. Brook is the president and executive director of the Ayn Rand Institute. Covel early on was introduced to Ayn Rand's work by famed trend trader Ed Seykota. Over the years Covel has come to appreciate that numerous top traders and entrepreneurs cite Rand's work as inspirations in their careers. Covel and Brook discuss trading; the nature of altruism; the idea and definitions of selfishness in the context of objectivism; the power of ideas; the idea of being a victim; schools, teaching, and political teaching; entitlement leading to victimhood; the rise of state power, the ambitious poor, and the minimum wage; free work and internships; Alan Greenspan; and America compared to Singapore. More on Yaron Brook: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yaron_Brook. Receive a free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel's bubble is about to burst when it comes to arguments that appeal to emotion; logical fallacies. Straw men, appeals to authority, anecdotal arguments, and the like have all been on the rise. Covel gives some examples: Where is the proof and track records for predictive technical analysis? Trend following, which is a reactive strategy, has a mountain of evidence. A ton of performance data that gives an idea of how many traders across decades, markets, and economic climates both up and down, made money--and it's on file with the CFTC. There are a lot of people out there pushing this predictive TA. Where is the evidence? Yet, they came out swinging for Covel with the logical fallacies. There just aren't decades of track records like trend following. Another commenter tied trend following to his religion, even though trend following doesn't care about your religion--it's agnostic. Trend following is only about the rules, the process. Covel also talks about the phrase "active trader". Covel moves on to a clip from Pink Floyd frontman Roger Waters, discussing an argument over the song "Comfortably Numb" to illustrate his point. Next, Covel plays a clips from Ed Seykota and a clip from TED about Chinese one-party government. If you're listening, the threads connect. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to www.trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel talks to author, blogger and trader Steve Burns. In his second visit to the podcast Burns and Covel discuss several famed trading quotes containing wisdom from Ed Seykota, Richard Dennis, Tom Willis, Jesse Livermore, Amos Hostetter, Ben Stein, Bertrand Russell, T. Boone Pickens, and Larry Hite. Covel and Burns discuss risk management; position sizing; the magic of compounding; why individual trades have very little meaning; turning down the volume on your emotions in your trades; how your losses can be an education; concept and theory with regard to trend following; quantifying and capturing trends; "just trading the numbers"; greed and fear in the context of trends; the common attitudes and misconceptions of novice to trend following traders; trading against the market vs. trading against yourself; drawdowns, and the importance of studying the track records of the great traders; entry and exit strategies; the importance of starting "right" in every enterprise; the curse of laziness; ignoring the talking heads; why you don't need 20 screens on your desk to trade optimally; cutting your losses; the 1% rule; being blinded by the fundamentals; why if you diversify, control your risk, and go with the trend, it just has to work; I.Q. vs. emotional intelligence (E.Q.); and technology and long term trend following. Special Offer? Receive free DVD delivered to your home or office: www.trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel speaks with Jason Russell, the President and CIO of Acorn Global Investments in Canada. Russell brings a unique perspective to the show with a very clear strategy on how his firm makes money for their clients. Covel and Russell discuss Russell's background and how he came to form Acorn Global Investments; Russell's strategy for Acorn and "the baker analogy"; the idea of "winners stay, losers go"; showing his investors every position that Russell has; how the terms "commodity trading adviser", "trend follower", "quantitative trading" don't exactly describe what many traders do; Ed Seykota and the "trading tribe"; letting go of "why" and simply riding out trends; where strategies like Russell's fit in the context of a portfolio; the importance of delivering uncorrelated results to the S&P 500; drawdowns and the psychological effect of going through one alone, uncorrelated to other markets; and how there's nothing more important than risk management. More info on trend following? Receive the free DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.
My guest today is Jason Russell, the President and CIO of Acorn Global Investments in Canada. Russell brings a unique perspective to the show with a very clear strategy on how his firm makes money for their clients. The topic is Trend Following. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Russell's background and how he came to form Acorn Global Investments Russell's strategy for Acorn and "the baker analogy" The idea of "winners stay, losers go" Showing his investors every position that Russell has How the terms "commodity trading adviser", "trend follower", "quantitative trading" don't exactly describe what many traders do Ed Seykota and the "trading tribe" Letting go of "why" and simply riding out trends Where strategies like Russell's fit in the context of a portfolio The importance of delivering uncorrelated results to the S&P 500 Drawdowns and the psychological effect of going through one alone, uncorrelated to other markets How there's nothing more important than risk management Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!
My guest today is Charles Faulkner, an author, trader, and international expert on modeling the knowledge and performance of exceptional individuals. He was originally featured in "The New Market Wizards" by Jack Schwager. Faulkner has a new book coming out this fall called "Higher Level Trading: The Five Stages To Trading and Investor Mastery". The topic is trading psychology. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Human behavior and the investor's psyche How Faulkner came to put together his newest book, and the qualitative differences between the five levels of experience, knowledge, and understanding Developing the different levels of thinking that lead to expertise, and the correct path to take to developing these skills Preparation, effort, "doing the work", and the right way to jump into investing Some of the commonalities between those profiled in the "New Market Wizards" book Ed Seykota's recent statements on day trading Behavioral economics The idea that the less you know about something the more convinced you are that it is true--and how a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing "Perfection seekers", variation, and letting perfection slow you down Outliers and the potential to make a change in your thinking Efficient markets, Vernon Smith, and bubbles Imagery, stories, prediction, and the skill of conceiving multiple scenarios Reducing information, and vetting your inputs to find out what information is important and what isn't Why we are most influenced by parts of our environment that we are unaware of Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!
Charles Faulkner visits the podcast for his third on-air conversation with Michael Covel--a conversation that started while Covel was recently in Malaysia and finished while he was in Vietnam. Faulkner is an author, trader, and international expert on modeling the knowledge and performance of exceptional individuals. He was originally featured in "The New Market Wizards" by Jack Schwager. Faulkner has a new book coming out this fall called "Higher Level Trading: The Five Stages To Trading and Investor Mastery". In their free-flowing conversation Faulkner and Covel cover wide territory. Covel and Faulkner discuss Faulkner's thoughts about human behavior and the investor's psyche. This brings the conversation to the idea that the world is getting more complex, and the increase of "magical thinking" in response. Covel and Faulkner move on to discuss further topics such as how Faulkner came to put together his newest book, "Higher Level Trading", and the qualitative differences between the five levels of experience, knowledge, and understanding; developing the different levels of thinking that lead to expertise, and the correct path to take to developing these skills; preparation, effort, "doing the work", and the right way to jump into investing; some of the commonalities between those profiled in the "New Market Wizards" book; Ed Seykota's recent statements on day trading; behavioral economics; the idea that the less you know about something the more convinced you are that it is true--and how a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing; "perfection seekers", variation, and letting perfection slow you down; outliers and the potential to make a change in your thinking; efficient markets, Vernon Smith, and bubbles; imagery, stories, prediction, and the skill of conceiving multiple scenarios; reducing information, and vetting your inputs to find out what information is important and what isn't; and why we are most influenced by parts of our environment that we are unaware of. Free DVD? Go to www.trendfollowing.com/win.
Michael Covel comes to today from Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam after spending several weeks in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and a few days in Singapore. Covel talks about some of his experiences is Singapore and Vietnam, but first he shares a quote from legendary trend following trader Ed Seykota regarding day trading: "Traders use it medicinally as distraction from deeper issues." Seykota has a remarkable ability to take complicated thoughts and reduce them down to only a few words, holding a mirror up to you and your life in the process. Covel talks about the "screen watchers" who have to look at their trades all day long and questions their performance. Where are all the day traders' performance data? They simply don't exist with only a few exceptions for big traders like Steve Cohen. Take that and compare it to trend following which has the performance data to prove its success. Without that data Covel's "Trend Following" book would have simply been opinion with no foundation. Covel digs deeper into the Seykota quote and discusses the core issues of what he's really talking about: is day trading simply the answer to your other problems? It's very similar to the lottery mentality regardless of how people try and talk it up: there's a very small chance of you winning big in the end. Covel also recounts some of his experiences abroad and compares it to the situation in America today. Compared to Singapore, America simply can't compete with what they are able to get done. Singapore has great economic freedom and there's a wide desire there to make money--not just live off the State nipple. Economic freedom and the desire to make money, however crass, leads to a better life. Covel mentions a book he's currently reading about how the Russian oligarchs came to power and made their billions. It's really rooted in the system that was the old Soviet Union system: the state-run economy and taking advatnage of that. Everything was run by the state: the banks, the delivery of bread, the production of produce, etc. Covel brings it up because he's currently in Ho Chi Minh City (formerly Saigon). Today, there's nothing that feels remotely communist to Covel. He saw a couple of flags on some government buildings, but that's about it. Instead, it's mostly commerce and entrepreneurs. There's an energy there and people are clearly ready to make something happen. Ultimately, this brings Covel back to America. America does not have the ability to build a Singapore right now. Covel discusses the voting process and whether it's better to have a system where you know you don't have certain rights and freedoms (like Vietnam) or to have a system that gives you those rights and freedoms, but it's more akin to a fantasy. He's not some angry ex-pat: Covel simply wants to point out that the American system was founded on pure and noble ideals, but the bureaucracy has gotten so big and so unwieldy that the average vote makes no difference. Even a change in political leadership doesn't make a difference, and those on the right and left have more in common than not in common. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to http://www.trendfollowing.com/win.
Today's podcast is about the six inches between the ears: your mind, your ego, and the mental part of the game that is so important to being a successful trader, entrepreneur, or pretty much anything that doesn't involve working for the man. Michael Covel opens up by talking about a book by Brenda Ueland called "If You Want to Write". Specifically, it's a book about writing, how to write, and how to think about writing. However, Covel notes that you can take the word "writing" and insert anything and have it apply: trend following, basket weaving, running--it doesn't make a difference. That's the way the book was written, and that's what Michael Covel gets at in today's episode. Understanding the precepts that Covel talks about in today's episode are relevant to trend following trading, being an entrepreneur, having a good life, having good friends, or having a family. For those of you that might be "quant jocks", and might not think the emotional and psychology are as or more important than the numbers, Covel passes along an anecdote about legendary trend following trader Ed Seykota. It's the internal, the ego, the psychology, the emotions--all these pieces wrapped together are the foundation for all success. Covel goes on to read selections from a new e-book compilation from several different authors, and connects the dots. He covers fascination, gumption, focus, leaping, timeless, confidence, passion, poker, and adventure. It's not time to just count another year. It's time to plan an adventure--whether it's travel, becoming a trend following trader, or anything else that speaks to you. Regardless of whatever success you want to achieve, this is it. If you can get the mental side of the equation down, you're going to win. Free DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.
The debate now is all about the fiscal cliff. You seemingly can't turn on the TV, the radio, or look on the web without it. When it comes down to it, the debate is really about money. It's quite crass and crude, the debate about money in America, because we've lost site about what money is and what it represents. It's become an inanimate object that we all desire, but they way it's discussed in popular culture, politics, and most everywhere you look, it's become a pejorative. Most people don't even want to think about it. Michael Covel discusses money and what it represents: It's the exchange mechanism amongst honest people. We use money to give each other our value. That's the way it works. So, in the spirit of this thought process, Covel reads an excerpt from "Atlas Shrugged". He notes that he was given this book to read as a homework assignment after meeting famed trend following trader Ed Seykota. We all know there are vastly different opinions on Rand. Some people love her and build upon her work as the foundation of their ethos, and others refer to it as a childish teenage dream. Regardless of your views on Rand, the excerpt Covel reads can be appreciated for its intelligence and wisdom about money. Free DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.
How is trend following a bit like the Billy Idol song, "Dancing With Myself"? Michael Covel explains the importance of maintaining an independent spirit, feeling comfortable standing alone and outside the crowd and being your own self. Covel contrasts this to the famous scene in "American Psycho" where a group of executives compare the card stock and fancy presentation of their business cards trying to impress one another. That's the complete opposite of what "Dancing With Myself" gets at. Worry about yourself, not the crowd. Covel then quotes hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry. Hendry holds himself out in public as coming from a fundamental perspective, even though his hero is trend trader Bruce Kovner, who was trained by Michael Marcus, who was trained by Ed Seykota (all trend following traders). You get the picture. Hendry honestly states that he doesn't know what's going to happen, but he puts himself in the position to have probabilistic bets that can profit when the market moves--in whatever direction. Covel moves on to quote David Einhorn, a hedge fund manager. What will the Fed do if the bubble bursts when interest rates are at zero? Is Covel, in quoting Einhorn, trying to predict the future by talking about this subject? He's simply mapping out what he sees: A world that's rigged and manipulated, and a Federal Reserve that's trying to make its buddies at the big banks wealthy. In the midst of this how can you protect yourself and profit? The only way you can truly protect yourself is by looking at the price in the here and now from a trend following perspective. You can make decisions based on the price movement without having any idea what the Fed is doing behind the curtain. There is no certainty. There's only chaos, uncertainty, fractures, and cracks in the sidewalk. You have to have a plan before that fracture breaks. Although traders like Einhorn, Hendry, and John Hussman might not be trend following traders themselves, their observations certainly make the case for employing a trend following strategy. Special Offer? Free trend following DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.
My guest today is Van Tharp. Tharp runs the Van Tharp Institute and is the author of four acclaimed books. He was also featured in Jack Schwager's Market Wizard's: Interviews with Great Traders. Van Tharp received his Ph.D. in psychology, is a certified Master Practitioner of Neuro Linguistic Programming (NLP), a Certified Master Time Line Therapist, a certified Modeler of NLP, and an Assistant Trainer of NLP. He has used his expertise in NLP to create the successful models of trading and investing upon which so much of his work is based. Tharp also was also considered for the original Turtle program with Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt. The topic is trading psychology. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Tharp's psychological expertise to explain why trading psychology is so important to being a successful trader Importance of happiness in relation to trading psychology The influence of Tom Basso, Bill Eckhardt, and Ed Seykota (and his concept of "market's money") The notion of self-sabotage Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!
Michael Covel interviews Van Tharp. Van Tharp runs the Van Tharp Institute and is the author of four acclaimed books published by McGraw Hill: Super Trader, Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom, Safe Strategies for Financial Freedom, and Financial Freedom Through Electronic Day Trading. He was also featured in Jack Schwager's Market Wizard's: Interviews with Great Traders. Van Tharp received his Ph.D. in psychology, is a certified Master Practitioner of Neuro Linguistic Programming (NLP), a Certified Master Time Line Therapist, a certified Modeler of NLP, and an Assistant Trainer of NLP. He has used his expertise in NLP to create the successful models of trading and investing upon which so much of his work is based. Tharp also was also considered for the original Turtle program with Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt. Covel uses Tharp's psychological expertise to explain why trading psychology is so important to being a successful trader. Many people attribute the phrase "trading psychology" to Tharp, and he's also done a lot of work in the area of position sizing. Covel and Tharp discuss these topics in addition to the importance of happiness in relation to trading psychology; the influence of Tom Basso, Bill Eckhardt, and Ed Seykota (and his concept of "market's money"); and the notion of self-sabotage. Special Offer: receive free DVD delivered to your home or office: www.trendfollowing.com/win.
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