Podcasts about kahneman

A Nobel laureate in economics argues the bans we pass to protect our morals are quietly killing people and the data backs him up. Why the line between a market we allow and one we forbid is mostly an accident of disgust. Subscribe if you want science with evidence, not speculation. My guest won the 2012 Nobel Prize for designing the systems that match kidney donors to patients who would otherwise die waiting. We cover why it's easy to buy heroin but hard to hire a hitman, what surrogacy bans actually do to the babies they're meant to protect, why paying kidney donors could end a shortage that kills thousands a year, and the trade-off statement he wants every lawmaker to say out loud. He has been called an organ trafficker. He explains why that's the point. What you'll hear: Why banning something that people want often makes it more dangerous The kidney market America won't build and what that silence costs What the hitman vs. heroin ban asymmetry tells us about effective prohibition The McCormick statement: the trade-off acknowledgment most policy debates refuse to make How prediction markets are eroding the boundary between public and private information Whether Milton Friedman was right to be embarrassed by the economics Nobel There's no such thing as a solution. There are only trade-offs. CHAPTERS 00:00  Who gets called an organ trafficker? 02:26  What makes a transaction repugnant? 03:14  Why bans without support create black markets 03:36  Heroin is easy. Hitmen are not. Why? 04:44  Prohibition, NASCAR, and moonshine 07:26  Surrogacy: legal here, criminal in Europe 12:30  When money turns something legal into a crime 14:28  Can religion corrupt a market? 15:56  Who actually pays for college? 21:38  The Enhanced Games: drugs as a marketing platform 25:30  Adderall, Erd0151s, and the science of getting sharper 30:58  Why AI makes market congestion worse before better 35:00  100,000 kidney failures a year. 30,000 transplants. 36:44  Portland decriminalized heroin. It failed. 39:22  The trade-off statement politicians refuse to make 41:14  Can you legalize sex work and shrink trafficking? 47:42  Kahneman chose to die. Who should decide? 48:30  Should we put GLP-1 drugs in the water? 56:12  America is the Saudi Arabia of blood plasma 01:00:54  Prediction markets and inside information 01:01:34  Sports gambling is more addictive than it looks 01:11:40  Peter Nobel called economics a marketing stunt 01:13:32  Is economics a real science? Get the transcript, fascinating bonus content, and my Monday M.A.G.I.C. Message: https://briankeating.com/yt Have a .edu email and live in the USA? You automatically win a meteorite: https://BrianKeating.com/edu Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/DrBrianKeating?sub_confirmation=1 Support Into the Impossible on Patreon, get my weekly M.A.G.I.C. Message, unfiltered bonus content, and live monthly Office Hours with me: https://www.patreon.com/drbriankeating Join this channel for perks, monthly Office Hours, and your name in the Member Roster at the end of every episode: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmXH_moPhfkqCk6S3b9RWuw/join Get your three free gifts when you join my Multiverse of Minds: https://BrianKeating.com/cosmic Featured Guest: Alvin Roth website: https://web.stanford.edu/~alroth/ Moral Economics (book): https://www.amazon.com/Moral-Economics-Prostitution-Controversial-Transactions/dp/1541702018 My books: Losing the Nobel Prize (memoir): http://amzn.to/2sa5UpA Think Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/03ezQFu Focus Like a Nobel Prize Winner: https://a.co/d/hi50U9U Galileo's Dialogue (first-ever audiobook): https://a.co/d/iZPi9Un Twitter/X: https://x.com/BrianKeating Substack: https://briankeating.substack.com Blog: https://briankeating.com/blog Audio-only: https://briankeating.com/podcast #intotheimpossible #briankeating #economics #NobelPrize #AlvinRoth #marketdesign #podcast Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In The Irrational Decision: How We Gave Computers the Power to Choose for Us, Benjamin Recht argues that the optimization and mathematical rationality we apply to every corner of modern life—from dieting to hiring to strategy—often fails when encountering the messy realities of life.Recht is a professor of electrical engineering and computer science at UC Berkeley. In his new book, he traces how a narrow conception of rationality, born from 1940s wartime computing, came to dominate decision-making across society—and shows that this approach works brilliantly in closed, controlled systems like microchip design but breaks down in the complex, unpredictable domains where most real decisions are made.In his conversation with Adam Job, senior director at the BCG Henderson Institute, he discusses the origins of mathematical rationality, why optimization works for microchips but not for diets, why game theory fails to describe how humans actually behave, and how leaders should think about the boundary between human and machine intelligence in the age of AI.Key topics discussed: 01:02 | What is mathematical rationality and where do we encounter it?02:49 | The origins of rational thinking in the 1940s07:18 | Where optimization works: microchips, logistics, controlled systems09:13 | Where it fails: Chernobyl, Waymo, and the limits of control13:17 | When human “qualitative irrationality” is the right answer14:59 | A framework for assigning decisions to machines vs. humans17:45 | How the boundary between human and machine decision-making will evolve19:14 | Why game theory fails to describe how humans actually behave22:07 | Kahneman vs. Klein: two views on human decision-making24:30 | What we risk losing as we outsource more decisions to AI

A Note from James:If I could tell my children to read one post of mine, it would be this post.Influence is how they will navigate a world of uncertainty.Robert Cialdini is the most influential person in the world. And by that I mean, he wrote the book Influence, which sold 3 million copies and defines the six critical aspects of all influence.Now he has a new book, Pre-Suasion, going 10x deeper into the concepts of persuasion. I got him on my podcast so I could ask the 1,000 questions I have.Small story from the book:If you name a restaurant “Studio 97” instead of “Studio 17,” people are more likely to tip higher.If you ask a girl for her phone number outside a flower store, triggering feelings of romance, she is more likely to give it to you than if you ask her outside a motorcycle store.And 500 other stories.The environment is just as important as what you say.Before the podcast began, I gave him a book as a gift: The Anxiety of Influence, a history of poetry.What would poetry have to do with influence and marketing?In all art, since the beginning of time, artists have built on the work of the artists of the generation before them.Beethoven depended on a Mozart to be a Beethoven. Picasso depended on a Cézanne. Without Michelson, there would be no Einstein.But poets, for some reason, would deny being influenced.“I never even read Ezra Pound,” shouted one poet at a critic.Poets want to be seen as original.Nobody is 100% original.This is the anxiety of influence.Almost all of our decisions, and even our creativity, are outsourced to the people around us who influence us: peers, teachers, religion, parents, bosses, etc.Our personality is our own particular mishmash of influences.How we deal with that anxiety, how we recognize the influences, learn from them, and build from them, is the birth of all of our creativity.Let me summarize the seven aspects of influence:Reciprocity: If you give someone a Christmas card, they will want to return the favor.Likability: Make yourself trustworthy. For instance, outline the negatives of dealing with you.Consistency: Ask someone for a favor. Now they will say to themselves, “I am the type of person who does James a favor.”Social Proof: If you are trying to get someone to do X, show them that “a lot of your peers do X.” For instance, if you are at a bar and you are a guy trying to meet women, bring your women friends and not your guy friends with you.Authority: “Four out of five dentists say…”Scarcity: “Only 100 iPhones left at this store!”Unity: You and I are the same because of location, values, religion, etc.I've used each of the above in business.They work.They will make you money.The entire purpose of language is to influence.We are not strong animals. We are weak.The language of influence saved us.Probably a word like “Run!” was the first word spoken.A word of influence.And it worked.I'm still running from the things I fear.So speak to influence.Don't speak to call a flower yellow.Speak to breathe spirit into an idea, to be enthusiastic, to convey emotion, to influence.This is the only way to have an impact with your unique creativity.I gave Robert the book as a gift — reciprocity — assuming we would have a great podcast.And we did.But then I thought later, I can't even remember how Robert got on my podcast.I highly recommend his book in the podcast and even in this post.As he got into his car after the podcast in order to go to his next interview, I started thinking:“Hmmm, who influenced who?”Episode Description:Robert Cialdini wrote the book on persuasion — literally. His classic Influence became one of the defining books on why people say yes, how decisions get shaped, and why the smallest cue in the room can change the outcome of a conversation.In this episode from the archive, James talks with Cialdini about Pre-Suasion, the idea that persuasion starts before the actual pitch. It begins with what people notice, what they feel, what is in the environment, and what frame has already been set before the first real ask is made.They talk about flower shops, restaurant names, voting booths, Warren Buffett's shareholder letters, Anwar Sadat's negotiation instincts, and the rabbi who helped save thousands of lives with one sentence. But the episode is not just about marketing. It is about how people make decisions under uncertainty — and how to use influence ethically, whether you are asking for a job, building a business, negotiating a deal, writing a sales letter, or trying to become more trusted.What You'll Learn:Why persuasion often begins before the message — and how small cues in the environment can make people more receptive.How Cialdini's original six principles of influence work: reciprocity, consistency, social proof, scarcity, authority, and liking.Why Cialdini added a seventh principle, unity — the feeling that “we are the same” — and why it can be even stronger than liking.When to use social proof versus authority, and how to decide which kind of evidence matters most in a given situation.Why admitting weakness first can build trust, and how Warren Buffett uses honesty as a persuasion tool instead of a liability.Timestamped Chapters:[00:00] Introduction and episode preview[01:25] Interview begins — James introduces Robert Cialdini and Pre-Suasion[03:12] The flower shop study: why context changes the answer before the question is asked[05:48] Valentine Street and the hidden power of unrelated cues[06:42] Wine stores, voting booths, and fluffy cloud mattresses[08:10] Are humans irrational, or are shortcuts necessary?[10:17] How the pictures on your wall can change what you write[11:36] The six — now seven — principles of influence[12:00] Reciprocity: the Hare Krishna flower example and the power of personalized gifts[16:40] Consistency: Anwar Sadat, Henry Kissinger, and giving people a reputation to live up to[19:30] Cialdini's undercover research with sales organizations[23:30] Social proof: medical no-shows, restaurant menus, and what happens when a message backfires[26:43] Social proof as feasibility: “people like me can do this”[29:07] Authority: when expert endorsement beats crowd validation[33:55] Why companies lose with better products when they fail to frame the decision properly[35:10] Building authority from zero by using honesty and scarcity[37:05] The Avis “We're number two” campaign and the trust value of admitting weakness[38:24] Warren Buffett's shareholder letters and the persuasive power of leading with mistakes[41:30] Unity: Cialdini's seventh principle of influence[44:24] The rabbi, the Japanese tribunal, and the sentence that saved a community[48:30] Applying unity in job interviews, dating, and negotiations[51:10] Loss aversion and how uncertainty changes persuasion[55:00] Why long sales letters can outperform short ones[55:30] Cialdini's practical framework: find what is true, direct attention to it, then make the case[59:00] Fake scarcity and why false urgency destroys trust[65:00] Closing thoughts on ethical influence and genuine specificityAdditional Resources:Robert Cialdini — Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion — Cialdini's classic book on the core principles of persuasion and compliance. Robert Cialdini — Pre-Suasion: A Revolutionary Way to Influence and Persuade — the follow-up book discussed throughout the episode, focused on what happens before the persuasive message itself. Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letters — referenced in the episode as a real-world example of trust-building through candor and weakness-first communication. Daniel Kahneman and Prospect Theory — Cialdini references the role of loss aversion and uncertainty in persuasion; Kahneman received the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for integrating psychological research into economic decision-making. Chiune Sugihara — the Japanese diplomat connected to the story Cialdini uses to explain unity and shared identity. The Avis “We're Number Two” Campaign — discussed as an example of turning a weakness into credibility by being honest before making the positive case.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Your brain is wired to find patterns. That's mostly a good thing... until it's not. This episode breaks down illusory correlation: why your team sees connections that aren't there, and what you can do to stop making decisions based on a handful of vivid moments dressed up as a trend.Have you ever watched your team make a confident product decision based on a pattern that, when you actually look at the data, barely exists?Illusory correlation is the bias that turns coincidence into conviction. When two things happen close together -- even just once or twice -- our brains quietly file them as connected. The concept was first identified by psychologist Loren J. Chapman in 1967, who noticed that trained clinical professionals were reporting patient behavior patterns that statistically didn't exist. The problem isn't laziness or bad intent. It's just how human memory works. Rare or distinctive events get stored differently, and when two unusual things co-occur, the brain treats that pairing as meaningful -- even when it's pure chance.In product and design work, this plays out constantly and in ways that feel completely legitimate. A feature ships and traffic ticks up the next day, so the launch gets the credit -- even though a competitor was down and marketing ran a campaign. Six user interviews produce two mentions of a feature, and suddenly that feature defines the whole persona. A few support tickets from one customer segment, and that segment becomes "a tough audience." The misses get forgotten. The hits stack up. And the team ends up navigating by a pattern that was never really there. This episode breaks down how illusory correlation sneaks into your metrics, your research, and your team dynamics -- and gives you a few concrete habits to start catching it before it shapes your roadmap. Give it a listen.Topics:• 02:20 – Personal story: the engineering lead I had all wrong• 04:29 – What is illusory correlation?• 04:46 – The origin: Chapman's 1967 research• 06:19 – Hamilton & Gifford: how the bias distorts how we see groups• 07:10 – Kahneman & Tversky: why illusory correlations stick• 07:50 – How it shows up in your product metrics• 08:23 – The A/B testing problem• 09:00 – How it distorts how teams think about people and segments• 09:26 – How it corrupts user research• 09:50 – Engineering superstitions and team dynamics• 10:27 – Why more data isn't always the fix• 11:00 – Five habits to fight illusory correlation—Thanks for listening! We hope you dug today's episode. If you liked what you heard, be sure to like and subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts! And if you really enjoyed today's episode, why don't you leave a five-star review? Or tell some friends! It will help us out a ton.If you haven't already, sign up for our email list. We won't spam you. Pinky swear.• ⁠⁠⁠⁠Get a FREE audiobook AND support the show⁠⁠⁠⁠• ⁠⁠⁠⁠Support the show on Patreon⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠• ⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out show transcripts⁠⁠⁠⁠• ⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out our website⁠⁠⁠⁠• ⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe on Apple Podcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠• ⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠• ⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe on YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠• ⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe on Stitcher⁠

Send us Fan MailChoice is easy to praise and surprisingly hard to access when stress, habit, and old stories take the wheel. We sit down with cognitive psychologist and ADHD coach Eliza Barach, author of “Designing for Agency: Coaching the Moment of Choice,” to get concrete about what agency really looks like inside real decisions, especially for high-performing people with ADHD who often feel trapped between intention and follow-through. We dig into why autonomy is not a luxury in coaching, it is a driver of motivation. Eliza explains how micro-choices can create immediate reward and reduce delay aversion, connecting the dots between intrinsic motivation, dopamine, and the everyday reality of getting started. If big goals keep stalling, we explore how breaking choices into smaller, high-impact steps can rebuild momentum without relying on willpower fantasies. From there, we zoom out to the invisible forces that shape decision making. We talk top-down versus bottom-up perception, how internal narratives form from past experiences, and how we can help clients notice patterns without shame. We also go deep on values-based decisions and somatic awareness, including the subtle body signals that warn us when a value is being crossed. Eliza brings in Kahneman's system one and system two thinking to show how coaching uses effortful reflection to reshape automatic habits over time, one aligned choice at a time. If you want more from Eliza, you can find her work at neural-revolution.com. Subscribe, share this with a coach or client who needs more agency, and leave a review so more people can find these practical tools for choice, autonomy, and values-aligned coaching.Watch the full interview by clicking here. Find the full article here.Learn more about Eliza here.Free Gift –  A guided coaching workbook to help clients expand perceived choice, reconnect with values, and make more intentional decisions in session or between sessions. Click here for more information.Grab your free issue of choice Magazine here - https://choice-online.com/

内容简介本期聊“为什么要追求卓越”。增长往往不是线性的，真正的跃迁来自少数关键时刻；卓越工作不仅带来更高回报，更重要的是让人有机会提出更好的问题、完成更好的价值对齐。平庸的工作会被市场和记忆迅速遗忘，而卓越，是个体与组织面对世界最坦诚的行动方式。参考文献* Deutsch, D. (2011). *The Beginning of Infinity: Explanations That Transform the World*. Viking.* Christian, B. (2020). *The Alignment Problem: Machine Learning and Human Values*. W. W. Norton & Company.* Taleb, N. N. (2012). *Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder*. Random House.* Kahneman, D. (2011). *Thinking, Fast and Slow*. Farrar, Straus and Giroux.* J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (2024). *Guide to the Markets*. J.P. Morgan Asset Management.* S&P Dow Jones Indices. (2024). *S&P 500 Index Methodology*. S&P Global.

Stehst du auch manchmal vor einem perfekten Dashboard und wunderst dich, warum das Management das 10-Millionen-Projekt trotz blutrotem ROI einfach weiterlaufen lässt? Eher nicht dein Fehler, sondern menschliche Biologie! In dieser Episode ist die wunderbare Dr. Julia Zukrigl vom Data Storytelling Lab schon zum dritten Mal zu Gast. Wir sezieren, warum nackte Zahlen oft als Bedrohung wahrgenommen werden und unser Gehirn auf Intuition statt auf Fakten schaltet (Daniel Kahneman lässt grüßen). Wir klären, warum stumpfes Berichte-Schießen gar nichts bringt und echte Datenarbeit eigentlich pure Beziehungsarbeit ist. Du lernst, wie du vom reinen Zahlenknecht zum Decision Coach wirst, was eine Entscheidungsarchitektur ist und warum Data Literacy mehr ist als nur Tool-Bedienung. Hör rein, um den Daten-Dschungel zu durchdringen und echten Buy-in für deine Analysen zu bekommen!▬▬▬▬▬▬ Profile: ▬▬▬▬Zum LinkedIn-Profil von Julia: https://www.linkedin.com/in/julia-zukrigl/Zum LinkedIn-Profil von Christian: https://www.linkedin.com/in/christian-krug/Christians Wonderlink: https://wonderl.ink/@christiankrugUnf*ck Your Data auf Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/unfck-your-data▬▬▬▬▬▬ Buchempfehlung: ▬▬▬▬Buchempfehlung von Julia: Kybernetik und Kritik - Anna Verena NosthoffAlle Empfehlungen in Melenas Bücherladen: https://gunzenhausen.buchhandlung.de/unfuckyourdata▬▬▬▬▬▬ Hier findest Du Unf*ck Your Data: ▬▬▬▬Zum Podcast auf Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6Ow7ySMbgnir27etMYkpxT?si=dc0fd2b3c6454bfaZum Podcast auf iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/unf-ck-your-data/id1673832019Zum Podcast auf Deezer: https://deezer.page.link/FnT5kRSjf2k54iib6Zum Podcast auf Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@unfckyourdata▬▬▬▬▬▬ Merch: ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬https://unfckyourdata-shop.de/▬▬▬▬▬▬ Kontakt: ▬▬▬▬E-Mail: christian@uyd-podcast.com▬▬▬▬▬▬ Timestamps: ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬00:00 Intro & Rückkehr der wunderbaren Dr. Julia Zukrigl 04:17 Das 10-Millionen-Projekt: Warum Zahlen allein keine Entscheidungen kippen 07:35 Kahneman erklärt: System 1 (Intuition) vs. System 2 (Verstand) 12:15 Die rote ROI-Bedrohung: Warum Datenarbeit Beziehungsarbeit ist 21:24 Entscheidungsarchitektur: Lege die Schwellenwerte fest, BEVOR du analysierst 28:25 Decision Intelligence: Was „Data-Driven“ für uns Menschen eigentlich bedeutet 30:05 Der Outcome Bias: Warum ein gutes Ergebnis nicht für eine gute Entscheidung spricht 38:55 Das Decision Log: So dokumentierst du Entscheidungen pragmatisch im Alltag 46:16 Keine Tool-Schulung! Was ECHTE Data Literacy heute bedeutet 50:50 Julias Buchtipp, Frühlings-Vibes & Outro

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Read my new book, The Price of Becoming. www.LearningLeader.com/Becoming The Learning Leader Show with Ryan Hawk This is brought to you by Insight Global. If you need to hire one person, hire a team of people, or transform your business through Talent or Technical Services, Insight Global's team of 30,000 people around the world has the hustle and grit to deliver. My guest: David Epstein is the #1 New York Times bestselling author of Range and The Sports Gene. A former investigative reporter at ProPublica and senior writer at Sports Illustrated. His new book is called Inside the Box: How Constraints Make Us Better. Notes   Be part of "Mindful Monday" -- Text Hawk to 66866 Key Learnings The easier move is to let it go. David found a factual error in Ryan's new/my new book. David was supposed to read it and write a blurb on it - but went further and challenged a factual error. The kind move, what great leaders actually do, is being willing to point things out, even if it could cause a little friction.  There is such a thing as too much autonomy. After Range became mega viral, David optimized for autonomy. He individualized his whole life. He no longer was writing about what others assigned him. A year later, he realized there is a thing as too much autonomy. He missed the structure of a work day, the deadlines, the annoyances of working with other people's schedules. This total freedom ended up feeling terrible. "The great thing about being committed by your own choice is that you can stop wondering how to live and start living."  This quote by Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi hit David when he was on a dating app for book topics, just swiping and swiping. That day he said, "I'm really interested in constraints. I need some myself. I'm writing a book proposal on this." Two weeks later he was 10 times more interested because he decided to dive into it. Cal Newport says "system shutting down" at the end of his workday. It seems silly, but when you have all that freedom, you need something to close the workday so you can recover and be ready for the next day. Your brain is made for preventing you from having to think whenever possible. Cognitive scientist Daniel Willingham says thinking is energetically costly. So when your calendar is too open, all you'll do is what's convenient. Your brain will be lazy. The path of least resistance. The mere urgency effect: when schedule and structure is too open, people do things that seem urgent even if they're unimportant. When you're too unstructured, you end up doing huge volumes of low value stuff just to have checked off doing something. What David's workday looks like now:  Batching work: people at work check their email on average 77 times a day. The way people are usually doing that is they're toggling all the time between email and something else. When you do that, it lowers your productivity and massively increases your stress. David doesn't start his day with his inbox. He'll check it at the end of the workday because emails can take him away from the most important work at the beginning of the day.  Stress + Rest = Growth. The workday ends when David's son gets home. When writing, you have to program in rest, just like you would if you were an athlete in training.  Daniel Kahneman said writing "Thinking Fast and Slow" was the worst few years of his life. David had lunch with Kahneman and praised the book. Kahneman said, "Never again." He said it was so isolating. He was used to working with a partner or multiple partners and colleagues. He felt so isolated that he said he'd never write a book again, or if he did, he would write it with somebody else. And that's what he did. And David could empathize with that.  David made a one-page architectural outline for how "Inside the Box" would look. If it's not on that page, it is not in the book. He wrote as small as possible to try to defeat his own system. The book's 20% shorter than his other two. He thinks it's much tighter writing. He was so much more efficient that he doesn't feel nearly as burned out. After a mega hit book, two things matter: (1) A lot is out of your control, and (2) Identify as a craftsman. David's colleague at Sports Illustrated told him, "If a book about genetics and vampires comes out the same day, you're screwed, and there's nothing you can do about it." He was right. But David very strongly identifies as a writer now, as a craftsman. He's taken fiction writing courses just to learn about craft. With Inside the Box, he did a structural experiment that he found so engaging because he was focused on the craft itself, not just the commercial outcome. "Docendo discimus" - by teaching, we learn. This is a quote from Seneca. If people think they're going to have to teach certain material, they organize it more coherently in their own mind. They start pulling out main ideas and attaching different ideas together. Teaching it is even better, but just making someone think they're going to have to teach it makes them learn in a much more coherent way. Narrative values: the recurring themes that give coherence to a life. David went back and looked at his life and identified: curiosity, open-mindedness, diligence, and resilience. Now that he's started telling his story in that way, it shows up everywhere. But going forward, he also wanted some things in his story that he didn't have. So he identified forgiveness in particular because that has not been a strong suit for him. Ben Helfgott: the only living Olympian to have survived a concentration camp. Almost everybody in his family was killed in the Holocaust. He just preached forgiveness all the time. When David saw what Ben did, these petty grudges he's holding are nothing. You're just poisoning yourself when you hold these grudges. So David decided he wanted forgiveness to become one of his narrative values.  Herbert Simon won the highest award in computer science, psychology, and the Nobel Prize in economics. His quote serves as the epigraph of the book: "It is a myth, widely believed but not less mythical for that, that people are most creative when they're most free." Simon coined the term "satisficing." It's a combination of satisfy and suffice. It means having good enough decision rules. He contrasted that with maximizing. From a mountain of psychological research, it is almost always bad to be a maximizer. Maximizers are less happy with their decisions, less happy with their lives, more prone to regret. There's not much evidence they actually make better decisions most of the time. Simon was a proactive satisficer. He said you need three sets of clothing: one on your back, one in the wash, and the next one ready to wear. He simplified all the decisions in his life so he could save cognitive bandwidth for the really important ones. He famously said, "The perfect is the enemy of the good." Choose when to choose. Choose when to save and when to use your cognitive bandwidth.  Good enough doesn't mean you have low standards. It means you're saving your bandwidth for the most important things. "How you do anything is how you do everything" is completely wrong. This is one of David's least favorite quotes. It's wrong. Herbert Simon did the same mundane thing, the same breakfast every day, the same socks, so he could crush it in his work. He wasn't doing everything the way he was doing his work. The Fredkins Paradox: We spend the most energy on the least important decisions because we agonize when the options are really similar. General Magic: They invented the smartphone in 1990. The iPhone would not exist without them. They had infinite degrees of freedom. They could do anything. When the device came out, it didn't solve a clear customer problem. It had a 200-page manual. They sold 3,000 units in the first six months. Meanwhile, people inside General Magic who bit off much smaller chunks had success. One low-level engineer started Auction Web. His bosses said no, too small. He left and changed the name to eBay. Another created Graffiti. He said "I'm going to solve a clear customer problem. Busy professionals want contacts and calendars on the go." He did just a calendar, contacts, and a memo pad. That was the Palm Pilot. By doing way less. By doing something, not everything. Tony Fadell (the "podfather"): "If you don't have constraints, make up constraints."  Bill Gurley said, "We have a saying in venture: more startups die of indigestion than starvation." When Tony co-founded Nest, he made his team work inside a literal box. He made them prototype the box before they had the product. If it didn't fit in that box, it was not a priority. Reflection Questions What area of your life has too much freedom right now? Where could you add a constraint (a deadline, a ritual, a boundary) that would actually make you more productive or creative? If you had to pick three narrative values that run through your life story, what would they be? Are they the ones you want, or do you need to add an aspirational value like David did with forgiveness? What's one decision you're maximizing (trying to find the perfect choice) when you should be satisficing (good enough and move on)? How much time and energy would you free up if you applied Herbert Simon's approach? More Learning #310 - David Epstein: Why Generalists Will Rule the World #582 - Cal Newport: Obsess Over Quality #660 - James Clear: The 4 Laws to Behavioral Change Podcast Chapters00:00 The Price of Becoming - Ryan's New Book 01:15 Meet David Epstein 02:39 The Fact Checker: What Great Leaders Do 04:27 Dedication Easter Eggs 05:50 The Problem With Too Much Autonomy 10:47 Why You Actually Need Constraints 12:29 Batching Work: The 77 Email Checks Problem 17:20 Lunch with Kahneman: Thinking Fast and Slow Was Miserable  22:18 What To Do After A Viral Book 27:07 Docendo Discimus: By Teaching, We Learn  29:13 Why Leaders Should Regularly Teach 31:09 Desirable Difficulties 31:56 Narrative Values: The Themes That Define Your Life 34:31 Adding Forgiveness As an Aspirational Value 36:13 Chips on Shoulders vs. Proving People Right 39:10 Herbert Simon: The Man Who Won Everything 40:20 Satisficing Over Maximizing 42:40 Choosing When To Choose 44:29 Good Enough Doesn't Mean Low Standards 46:13 Why "How You Do Anything" is Completely Wrong 47:25 General Magic: Do Something, Not Everything 52:49 One Year From Now: What Are You Celebrating? 54:54 EOPC

Du hast gelesen, gelernt, dir vorgenommen und trotzdem passiert abends immer wieder dasselbe. Nicht weil du zu wenig weißt. Sondern weil in dem Moment, wo Energie knapp und Stress hoch ist, ein Teil deines Gehirns einfach übernimmt still, schnell, ohne zu fragen. Daniel Kahneman hat dieses Phänomen wissenschaftlich bewiesen: System 1, der Autopilot, schlägt System 2, den Verstand, jedes Mal wenn es darauf ankommt. In dieser Folge erfährst du, warum Wissen allein dein Verhalten nie verändern wird und auf welcher Ebene Veränderung wirklich beginnt. Kostenloser Vortrag " Das Problem sitzt zwischen den Ohren ": https://www.alexander-schelle.de/Academy/das-problem-sitzt-zwischen-den-ohren/ Kostenfreie Hypnose „Hypnoenergie“: https://www.alexander-schelle.de/hypnose-sichern/ Mein Buch "Die Geheimnisse eines Mentalisten" bekommst du mit Klick hier https://amzn.to/475gBrI Mein Selbsthypnose Buch bekommst du hier: https://amzn.to/3D2i3lf ___________________________________________________ Erfolg beginnt im Kopf. Auf diesem Kanal geht's um Mindset, mentale Stärke, Unterbewusstsein, Hypnose/Selbsthypnose, Psychologie und Kommunikation – damit du Gewohnheiten ändern, Stress reduzieren, Selbstvertrauen aufbauen und in Gesprächen sicherer & überzeugender wirst. Ich bin Alexander Schelle – Mentalist, Hypnotiseur und NLP-Coach. Seit über 20 Jahren arbeite ich mit dem, was Menschen wirklich steuert: unbewusste Muster, Emotionen, Aufmerksamkeit und Sprache. Zusätzlich bin ich regelmäßig auf Kreuzfahrtschiffen auf allen Weltmeeren zu sehen, wo tausende Menschen meine Shows, Vorträge und Workshops live erleben. Und ganz ehrlich: Egal ob Führungskraft, Verkäufer, Teamleiter oder Privatperson – die Mechanik dahinter ist dieselbe: Wer sein Gehirn versteht, kann Veränderung auslösen. Hier bekommst du praktische Tools & Beispiele, u. a. zu:

Pour recevoir les mails privés, clique ici : https://www.formactions.outilsdumanager.com/inscription-emails-prives-adf72f1d***Découvre ce que nous avons créé pour t'aider à aller plus loin :Des formactions pratiques et concrètes pour manager efficacement, quel que soit ton rôle ou ton secteur.Une communauté unique en ligne, le CIEL, où dirigeants et cadres dirigeants, s'entraident pour réussir ensemble.L'offre exclusive du moment pour t'aider à passer à l'action dès aujourd'hui.Clique ici pour explorer le catalogue ODM : https://www.formactions.outilsdumanager.com/cataloguecomplet

That sickly feeling after a tough leadership call isn't your intuition warning you that you got it wrong and this episode explains exactly why. Drawing on Leon Festinger's 1957 work on cognitive dissonance, a 2021 meta-analysis from Hebrew University, and Kahneman and Tversky's research on loss aversion, Shane reframes one of the most common experiences in school leadership: the quiet panic that shows up on the sofa after a hard decision. If you've ever drafted a softening email at 11pm or lain awake running alternate endings, this one is for you. You'll learn why that post-decision discomfort is a receipt, not a warning, proof that your brain is doing the work of committing, not evidence that you chose wrong. Shane also explains why the loudest complaints after a change are predictably loud (loss aversion means losses feel twice as heavy as gains), and why suppressing the discomfort actually makes you a worse leader in the room. The practical takeaway is a single written exercise you can do this week that won't make the feeling stop, but will change what it means to you. Resources & Links Mentioned:Leon Festinger's A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance (1957)Episode PartnersInternational Leaders ConferenceSisiJoin Shane's Intensive Leadership Programme at educationleaders.co/intensiveShane Leaning, an organisational coach based in Shanghai, supports school leaders globally. Passionate about empowment, he is the author of the best-selling 'Change Starts Here.' Shane is a leading educational voice in the UK, Asia and around the world.You can find Shane on LinkedIn and Bluesky. or shaneleaning.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Political psychologist Rose McDermott discusses her article on how systematic judgment biases can undermine nuclear deterrence and strategic stability, especially under emerging technologies like AI. McDermott explains Kahneman's Type 1 (fast, intuitive) versus Type 2 (slow, analytical) thinking and how four biases—overconfidence, the planning fallacy, the illusion of validity, and the prominence effect—can distort leaders' crisis decisions, probability judgments, and security trade-offs. Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest Producer: Jordan Morning

I get a lot of questions about pricing.  Should I start with our most expensive item first? Should I use precise prices instead of rounded ones when negotiating? Should I name competitors when comparing prices? Today, with pricing expert Dr Markus Husemann-Kopetzky we work through eight different psychological pricing tips in just 24 minutes. ---  Listen to the bonus episode: https://nudge.kit.com/a737588e58  Markus' book: https://amzn.to/46Hetcg  Unlock the Nudge Vaults: https://www.nudgepodcast.com/vaults Join 10,634 readers of my newsletter: https://www.nudgepodcast.com/mailing-list  Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/phill-agnew/  --- Today's sources: Bertini, M., & Wathieu, L. (2008). Research note—Attention arousal through price partitioning. Marketing Science, 27(2), 236–246. Bolton, L. E., Warlop, L., & Alba, J. W. (2003). Consumer perceptions of price (un)fairness. Journal of Consumer Research, 29(4), 474–491. Janiszewski, C., & Uy, D. (2008). Precision of the anchor influences the amount of adjustment. Psychological Science, 19(2), 121–127. Kim, H. M., & Kramer, T. (2006). The moderating effects of need for cognition and cognitive effort on responses to multi‐dimensional prices. Journal of Marketing Research. Krishnan, B. C., Biswas, A., & Netemeyer, R. G. (2006). Semantic cues in reference price advertisements: The moderating role of cue concreteness. Journal of Retailing, 82(2), 95–104. Suk, K., Lee, J., & Lichtenstein, D. R. (2012). The influence of price presentation order on consumer choice. Journal of Marketing Research, 49(5), 708–717. Thomas, M., Simon, D. H., & Kadiyali, V. (2010). The price precision effect: Evidence from laboratory and market data. Marketing Science, 29(1), 175–190. Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185(4157), 1124–1131. Wansink, B., Kent, R. J., & Hoch, S. J. (1998). An anchoring and adjustment model of purchase quantity decisions. Journal of Marketing Research, 35(1), 71–81.

Let me start you off with a scene. You're in a debate with someone who has the confidence of a Nobel laureate and the intellectual scaffolding of a soggy cardboard box. They speak quickly, assert boldly, and absorb nothing. You're thinking, “This is going to be easy.” Ten minutes later, you're Googling whether blood pressure medication comes in industrial drums.Welcome to the modern political argument.And if you've ever walked away from one of these encounters feeling like you just tried to teach algebra to a smoke alarm, congratulations. You've met the human embodiment of the Dunning-Krueger Effect. This is the phenomenon where people with limited knowledge dramatically overestimate their competence. In other words, the less they know, the more convinced they are that they know everything.Now layer that with the work of Daniel Kahneman, particularly from his book Thinking, Fast and Slow. Kahneman breaks thinking into two systems. System 1 is fast, emotional, reactive. System 2 is slow, analytical, deliberate.Guess which one dominates political arguments?Exactly.System 1 doesn't care about facts. It cares about survival. It treats disagreement like a personal attack, like you just insulted their grandmother and their Wi-Fi in the same sentence. So when you bring logic into that arena, you're not debating… you're threatening identity.That's your first mistake.Because what you think is a discussion about immigration policy is, for them, a cage match for psychological dominance. Truth isn't currency. Emotional control is.And long before Twitter turned arguments into public blood sport, Arthur Schopenhauer laid this out in his essay on eristic dialectics, essentially the art of winning arguments without regard for truth. His thesis was brutally simple: people don't argue to discover truth. They argue to win.Here's the kicker. When you present airtight logic to someone operating on emotional instinct, you don't win. You validate their battlefield. You've agreed to play chess with someone who flips the board and declares victory because your king “looked nervous.”So what happens next?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

"Ce n'est pas l'espèce la plus adaptée qui survit, c'est celle qui occupe le terrain émotionnel."Pour conclure cette saga passionnante, je retrouve Sandie Giacobi (cofondatrice de My Marketing Experience et autrice de Homo Entrepreneurus ). Un épisode final dédié à la conquête de votre marché par la puissance de votre voix.Pour une femme leader, la "part de voix" est indissociable de la part de marché. Sandi nous livre les leçons brutales de l'évolution humaine appliquées au business : pourquoi les géants s'effondrent et comment les "nouveaux arrivants" prennent le pouvoir.Nous décortiquons la fine frontière entre convaincre (le rationnel) et persuader (l'émotionnel) pour abaisser le niveau de méfiance de vos interlocuteurs et asseoir votre autorité naturelle.AU PROGRAMME :Le Mythe du "Too Big to Fail" : Pourquoi l'ancienneté ne garantit plus la survie et comment l'occupation du terrain émotionnel fait la différence.Convaincre vs Persuader : Pourquoi la conviction seule crée de la "réactance" (résistance) et comment la persuasion éthique libère l'action.Le Stratagème du Verre d'Eau : Les biais cognitifs (Cialdini, Kahneman) au service de vos rendez-vous clients.La Part de Voix : Utiliser la simple exposition pour devenir "Top of Mind" dans l'esprit de vos prospects.La Technique Vocale du Leader : Ma démonstration en direct pour passer d'une voix de conversation à une voix publique qui impose l'autorité dès la première seconde.L'EXPERTISE REBOND-S Je suis Pierre Fournier , coach en prise de parole. Ma mission : transformer votre voix en un instrument de conquête. Dans cet épisode, je vous montre comment la technique vocale et la maîtrise des biais psychologiques sont les piliers de votre charisme et de votre sécurité intérieure en public.Occupez votre territoire : Prête à ne plus laisser votre place à la concurrence ? Développons ensemble votre signature oratoire : [LIEN]

Most restaurants have a major problem.  Paying the bill.  Give the bill too early, and the customer feels rushed. Too late, and they feel ignored.  To solve this problem (and many more), Will Guidara turned to behavioural science.  And his solution helped his restaurant become the world's best. ---  Listen to the bonus episode: ⁠https://nudge.kit.com/aeea58886f⁠  Will's book Unreasonable Hospitality: ⁠https://amzn.to/4tPrMl8⁠  Will's new book The Field Guide: ⁠https://amzn.to/3Orq1u0⁠  Will's newsletter, Pre-Meal: ⁠https://www.unreasonablehospitality.com/premeal⁠ Unlock the Nudge Vaults: ⁠https://www.nudgepodcast.com/vaults⁠ Join 10,728 readers of my newsletter: ⁠https://www.nudgepodcast.com/mailing-list ⁠ Connect on LinkedIn: ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/phill-agnew/⁠ --- Today's sources: Kahneman, D., Fredrickson, B. L., Schreiber, C. A., & Redelmeier, D. A. (1993). When more pain is preferred to less: Adding a better end. Psychological Science, 4(6), 401–405.  Shotton, R. (2023). The illusion of choice: 16½ psychological biases that influence what we buy. Harriman House. Strohmetz, D. B., Rind, B., Fisher, R., & Lynn, M. (2002). Sweetening the till: The use of candy to increase restaurant tipping. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 32(2), 300–309.

İnsan davranışı gerçekten ne kadar “rasyonel”? Kararlarımızı biz mi veriyoruz, yoksa farkında bile olmadığımız psikolojik mekanizmalar mı yönlendiriyor? Bu bölümde New York Üniversitesi'nin (NYU) iki değerli ismi Prof. Dr. Selçuk Şirin ve Prof. Dr. Tülin Erdem ile Selçuk hocanın kitabından yola çıkarak, insan zihnini ve toplumsal davranışları anlamamıza yardımcı olan 10 çarpıcı düşünce ve psikoloji deneyini konuşuyoruz. Her biri bakış açınızı değiştirebilecek bu deneyler, insan doğasının sandığımızdan çok daha karmaşık olduğunu gösteriyor. Neden bazen açıkça yanlış olan bir fikre çoğunlukla birlikte inanırız? Otorite karşısında ahlaki sınırlarımız ne kadar dayanıklı? Önyargılar, grup kimliği ve rekabet bizi nasıl şekillendirir? Davranış bilimlerinin en çok konuşulan çalışmalarından bazılarına yakından bakıyoruz: Kahneman ve Tversky düşünce deneyleri ile kararlarımızın ne kadar irrasyonel olabildiğini, Robbers Cave Experiment ile grup çatışmasının nasıl üretildiğini, Asch Conformity Experiments ile çoğunluğa uyma eğilimimizi, Stanford Prison Experiment ile rollerin insan davranışını nasıl dönüştürdüğünü tartışıyoruz. Peki bu deneyler bize gerçekten ne söylüyor? İnsan doğası sandığımızdan daha mı kırılgan, yoksa daha mı öngörülebilir? Kendi kararlarımıza, ahlaki reflekslerimize ve sosyal ilişkilerimize farklı gözle bakmanızı sağlayacak bir sohbet sizi bekliyor. Zihninizi biraz sarsmaya hazırsanız, bu bölüm tam size göre.

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Support the show to get full episodes, full archive, and join the Discord community. The Transmitter is an online publication that aims to deliver useful information, insights and tools to build bridges across neuroscience and advance research. Visit thetransmitter.org to explore the latest neuroscience news and perspectives, written by journalists and scientists. Read more about our partnership. Sign up for Brain Inspired email alerts to be notified every time a new Brain Inspired episode is released. To explore more neuroscience news and perspectives, visit thetransmitter.org. Tom Griffiths directs both the Computational Cognitive Science Lab and the Princeton Laboratory for Artificial Intelligence at Princeton University. He's been on brain inspired before to talk about his previous book Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions, which he co-wrote with Brian Christian. Today he's here to talk about his new book, The Laws of Thought: The Quest for a Mathematical Theory of the Mind. In this book, Tom explains how the three pillars of logic, neural networks, and probability theory complement each other to explain cognition, arguing we are on the doorstep to settling what mathematical principles - the so-called "laws of thought" - underly our cognition. So we discuss a little bit about a lot of things, including the concepts themselves, the people who have generated and worked on those concepts. I should also mentioned, Tom recorded a bunch of his interviews with people he writes about, and he's edited and polished those into a podcast called the Cognition Project, which I have enjoyed after reading the book, and I think you'd enjoy it either before or after you read the book. Computational Cognitive Science Lab Princeton Laboratory for Artificial Intelligence Social: @cocosci_lab; @cocoscilab.bsky.social Book: The Laws of Thought: The Quest for a Mathematical Theory of the Mind. Podcast: The Cognition Project Read the transcript. 0:00 - Intro 3:20 - Tom's approach 7:19 - 3 pillars of the laws of thought 28:24 - Logic and formal systems strip away meaning 39:04 - Nature of thought 50:35 - Kahneman and Tversky 1:015:12 - Enabling constraints and inductive bias 1:12:51 - Hidden layers, probability, and hidden markov models 1:20:47 - Conscious vs nonconscious 1:23:43 - Feelings 1:31:26 - Personal

Welcome to the Social-Engineer Podcast: The Doctor Is In Series – where we discuss understandings and developments in the field of psychology.  In today's episode, Chris and Dr. Abbie discuss decision fatigue—how making too many choices throughout the day drains mental energy and affects judgment. They explain how stress and lack of sleep make it worse, how it differs from burnout, and why leaders and parents are especially vulnerable. The episode also shares simple, practical strategies to reduce daily decisions, protect mental energy, and prioritize recovery.  [Mar 2, 2026]  00:00 - Intro  00:56 - Show Updates and Sponsors  02:35 - What Decision Fatigue Is  03:34 - Stress, Sleep, and Mental Energy  05:12 - Mental vs. Physical Limits  07:13 - Decision Fatigue vs. Burnout  10:22 - Leadership, Empathy, and Hard Decisions  14:33 - Prevention: Routines and Breaks  20:43 - Advisors and AI Caution  24:38 - Everyday Life and Parenting Load  27:23 - Recovery Outlets and Wrap-Up  28:49 - Closing and Next Month's Topic (Diet Culture)    Find us online:    LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/dr-abbie-maroño-phd    Instagram: @DoctorAbbieofficial    LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/christopherhadnagy    References:   Baumeister, R. F., Bratslavsky, E., Muraven, M., & Tice, D. M. (1998). Ego depletion: Is the active self a limited resource? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 74(5), 1252–1265. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.74.5.1252   Baumeister, R. F., & Tierney, J. (2011). Willpower: Rediscovering the greatest human strength. Penguin Press.   Danziger, S., Levav, J., & Avnaim-Pesso, L. (2011). Extraneous factors in judicial decisions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108(17), 6889–6892. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1018033108   Davidson, R. J., & McEwen, B. S. (2012). Social influences on neuroplasticity: Stress and interventions to promote well-being. Nature Neuroscience, 15(5), 689–695. https://doi.org/10.1038/nn.3093   Fleming, S. M., & Dolan, R. J. (2012). The neural basis of metacognitive ability. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 367(1594), 1338–1349. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2011.0417   Hagger, M. S., Wood, C., Stiff, C., & Chatzisarantis, N. L. D. (2010). Ego depletion and the strength model of self-control: A meta-analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 136(4), 495–525. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0019486   Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux.  

In this episode of the Crazy Wisdom Podcast, host Stewart Alsop sits down with Larry Swanson, a knowledge architect, community builder, and host of the Knowledge Graph Insights podcast. They explore the relationship between knowledge graphs and ontologies, why these technologies matter in the age of AI, and how symbolic AI complements the current wave of large language models. The conversation traces the history of neuro-symbolic AI from its origins at Dartmouth in 1956 through the semantic web vision of Tim Berners-Lee, examining why knowledge architecture remains underappreciated despite being deployed at major enterprises like Netflix, Amazon, and LinkedIn. Swanson explains how RDF (Resource Description Framework) enables both machines and humans to work with structured knowledge in ways that relational databases can't, while Alsop shares his journey from knowledge management director to understanding the practical necessity of ontologies for business operations. They discuss the philosophical roots of the field, the separation between knowledge management practitioners and knowledge engineers, and why startups often overlook these approaches until scale demands them. You can find Larry's podcast at KGI.fm or search for Knowledge Graph Insights on Spotify and YouTube.Timestamps00:00 Introduction to Knowledge Graphs and Ontologies01:09 The Importance of Ontologies in AI04:14 Philosophy's Role in Knowledge Management10:20 Debating the Relevance of RDF15:41 The Distinction Between Knowledge Management and Knowledge Engineering21:07 The Human Element in AI and Knowledge Architecture25:07 Startups vs. Enterprises: The Knowledge Gap29:57 Deterministic vs. Probabilistic AI32:18 The Marketing of AI: A Historical Perspective33:57 The Role of Knowledge Architecture in AI39:00 Understanding RDF and Its Importance44:47 The Intersection of AI and Human Intelligence50:50 Future Visions: AI, Ontologies, and Human BehaviorKey Insights1. Knowledge Graphs Combine Structure and Instances Through Ontological Design. A knowledge graph is built using an ontology that describes a specific domain you want to understand or work with. It includes both an ontological description of the terrain—defining what things exist and how they relate to one another—and instances of those things mapped to real-world data. This combination of abstract structure and concrete examples is what makes knowledge graphs powerful for discovery, question-answering, and enabling agentic AI systems. Not everyone agrees on the precise definition, but this understanding represents the practical approach most knowledge architects use when building these systems.2. Ontology Engineering Has Deep Philosophical Roots That Inform Modern Practice. The field draws heavily from classical philosophy, particularly ontology (the nature of what you know), epistemology (how you know what you know), and logic. These thousands-year-old philosophical frameworks provide the rigorous foundation for modern knowledge representation. Living in Heidelberg surrounded by philosophers, Swanson has discovered how much of knowledge graph work connects upstream to these philosophical roots. This philosophical grounding becomes especially important during times when institutional structures are collapsing, as we need to create new epistemological frameworks for civilization—knowledge management and ontology become critical tools for restructuring how we understand and organize information.3. The Semantic Web Vision Aimed to Transform the Internet Into a Distributed Database. Twenty-five years ago, Tim Berners-Lee, Jim Hendler, and Ora Lassila published a landmark article in Scientific American proposing the semantic web. While Berners-Lee had already connected documents across the web through HTML and HTTP, the semantic web aimed to connect all the data—essentially turning the internet into a giant database. This vision led to the development of RDF (Resource Description Framework), which emerged from DARPA research and provides the technical foundation for building knowledge graphs and ontologies. The origin story involved solving simple but important problems, like disambiguating whether "Cook" referred to a verb, noun, or a person's name at an academic conference.4. Symbolic AI and Neural Networks Represent Complementary Approaches Like Fast and Slow Thinking. Drawing on Kahneman's "thinking fast and slow" framework, LLMs represent the "fast brain"—learning monsters that can process enormous amounts of information and recognize patterns through natural language interfaces. Symbolic AI and knowledge graphs represent the "slow brain"—capturing actual knowledge and facts that can counter hallucinations and provide deterministic, explainable reasoning. This complementarity is driving the re-emergence of neuro-symbolic AI, which combines both approaches. The fundamental distinction is that symbolic AI systems are deterministic and can be fully explained, while LLMs are probabilistic and stochastic, making them unsuitable for applications requiring absolute reliability, such as industrial robotics or pharmaceutical research.5. Knowledge Architecture Remains Underappreciated Despite Powering Major Enterprises. While machine learning engineers currently receive most of the attention and budget, knowledge graphs actually power systems at Netflix (the economic graph), Amazon (the product graph), LinkedIn, Meta, and most major enterprises. The technology has been described as "the most astoundingly successful failure in the history of technology"—the semantic web vision seemed to fail, yet more than half of web pages now contain RDF-formatted semantic markup through schema.org, and every major enterprise uses knowledge graph technology in the background. Knowledge architects remain underappreciated partly because the work is cognitively difficult, requires talking to people (which engineers often avoid), and most advanced practitioners have PhDs in computer science, logic, or philosophy.6. RDF's Simple Subject-Predicate-Object Structure Enables Meaning and Data Linking. Unlike relational databases that store data in tables with rows and columns, RDF uses the simplest linguistic structure: subject-predicate-object (like "Larry knows Stuart"). Each element has a unique URI identifier, which permits precise meaning and enables linked data across systems. This graph structure makes it much easier to connect data after the fact compared to navigating tabular structures in relational databases. On top of RDF sits an entire stack of technologies including schema languages, query languages, ontological languages, and constraints languages—everything needed to turn data into actionable knowledge. The goal is inferring or articulating knowledge from RDF-structured data.7. The Future Requires Decoupled Modular Architectures Combining Multiple AI Approaches. The vision for the future involves separation of concerns through microservices-like architectures where different systems handle what they do best. LLMs excel at discovering possibilities and generating lists, while knowledge graphs excel at articulating human-vetted, deterministic versions of that information that systems can reliably use. Every one of Swanson's 300 podcast interviews over ten years ultimately concludes that regardless of technology, success comes down to human beings, their behavior, and the cultural changes needed to implement systems. The assumption that we can simply eliminate people from processes misses that huma...

Clients don't need to do anything — and that's the brutal truth every salesperson meets early. If a buyer can stick with the same supplier, or do nothing at all, many will. The only thing that moves them is a felt gap between where they are now and where they want to be, plus a reason to bridge it now, not "sometime later". This piece unpacks how to surface that gap without bruising ego, how to test the buyer's DIY confidence with diplomacy, and how to quantify the pain of inaction so urgency becomes logical and emotional — the kind that actually triggers action. Why don't buyers take action even when they agree there's a problem? Buyers can agree there's a gap and still do nothing, because "no change" is often the lowest-risk option. In B2B and complex services, inaction is a decision: keep the incumbent, keep the budget, keep the politics calm. Post-pandemic (2021–2025), many firms tightened discretionary spend, so "we'll revisit next quarter" became a default script — whether you're selling into a Tokyo conglomerate, a US mid-market SaaS firm, or a European manufacturer. Procurement teams are trained to delay; senior leaders are trained to back their own judgement; and everyone is juggling competing priorities. Your job isn't to force urgency — it's to reframe the cost of waiting so the buyer persuades themselves. That's classic Challenger thinking and it pairs neatly with Dale Carnegie-style respect: tough on the issue, gentle with the person. Mini-summary: Agreement isn't action; urgency comes from reframing risk. Do now: Ask, "What happens if nothing changes by the end of this quarter?" What exactly is the "buyer's gap" in sales — and how do you diagnose it fast? The buyer's gap is the distance between the buyer's current reality and their desired future, measured in outcomes, not opinions. Think of it as a before/after delta: revenue leakage, churn, quality defects, compliance exposure, missed hires, stalled strategy. In Salesforce or HubSpot terms, it's the difference between "pipeline health today" and "forecast reliability we need by FY2026". In SPIN Selling language, it's the implication of the problem, expressed in business impact. Diagnosing it quickly means anchoring in concrete targets (KPIs, SLAs, customer NPS, cycle time, cost-to-serve) and a timeframe (this quarter, next six months, before a product launch). Compare contexts: Japanese decision-making often needs broader internal alignment; US teams may move faster but demand ROI proof; both still require clarity on what "better" looks like and what "staying put" costs. Mini-summary: A gap you can't measure becomes a gap you can't sell. Do now: Get the buyer to state one KPI and one deadline they'll be judged on. How do you test a buyer's DIY confidence without insulting them? You don't tell leaders they're wrong — you ask questions that let them discover the limits of "we can do it ourselves". Most executives have strong self-belief. If you attack it, you'll trigger defensiveness and stall the deal. Instead, use diplomatic, diagnostic questions that probe resourcing, capability, and trade-offs: "Who owns this internally?", "What will they stop doing to make time?", "What's the plan if your top performer leaves?", "How will you measure progress in 30 days?" That's subtle pressure, not arrogance. It's also psychologically smart: people trust conclusions they reach themselves (behavioural science 101, think Kahneman). In Japan, where saving face matters, this matters even more; in startups, the risk is overconfidence and bandwidth collapse. Your goal is respectful doubt — enough to show that DIY has hidden costs and timelines. Mini-summary: Self-persuasion beats salesperson persuasion. Do now: Ask, "What would have to be true for DIY to work on time — and what usually gets in the way?" How do you create urgency without sounding manipulative or desperate? Urgency isn't hype — it's a credible timeline tied to consequences the buyer already cares about. Manipulative urgency ("discount ends Friday") works in low-stakes retail; it backfires in enterprise sales. What works is a shared clock: contract renewals, regulatory deadlines, board reviews, hiring cycles, seasonal demand, or tech deprecation. As of 2025, AI and cyber risk conversations have made timelines sharper — but buyers still resist if the consequence is fuzzy. So you build urgency with cause and effect: "If implementation slips past March, your Q2 launch misses the marketing window", or "If churn stays at 12% for another two quarters, CAC payback blows out". Use comparative framing: multinationals have bureaucracy delays; SMEs have cashflow risk; both suffer when waiting compounds losses. Mini-summary: Real urgency is timeline + consequence, not theatre. Do now: Co-create a milestone plan and ask, "What breaks if we miss this date?" How do you quantify the cost of inaction when you don't have all the numbers? You don't need perfect data — you need credible ranges and the right questions to surface the buyer's own numbers. Opportunity cost sounds theoretical until you attach it to money, time, and risk. Start with what you can observe: volume, conversion, defect rate, cycle time, average deal size, staff turnover. Then use ranges: "If delays cost you 1–3 deals a month, what's that in gross margin?" or "If rework is 5–10% of project hours, what's that in payroll dollars?" Gartner and Forrester-style ROI thinking isn't about precision; it's about decision clarity. In heavily engineered sectors (manufacturing, logistics), buyers often have better operational metrics than they realise; in professional services, time-to-value is your lever. The key is to make the buyer feel the leakage with concrete estimates. Mini-summary: Concrete ranges create felt pain; vague talk creates procrastination. Do now: Build a simple "cost of waiting" calculator with the buyer in the meeting. What should sales leaders coach teams to do now to close the buyer's gap? Coach your team to run "gap conversations" that are respectful, evidence-based, and relentlessly action-oriented. This is not about being aggressive; it's about being professionally brave. Train reps to (1) diagnose the gap in one sentence, (2) test DIY assumptions with diplomacy, (3) quantify inaction in ranges, and (4) land a clear next step with a date. Role-play implication questions, not product pitches. Use call reviews to check whether reps anchored to a deadline and KPIs. Bring in frameworks: SPIN for problem/implication, Challenger for reframe, Dale Carnegie for relationship, MEDDICC for qualification discipline. In Japan, coach patience and consensus mapping; in the US, coach ROI and speed; across both, coach "action now" language that still feels respectful: "What would make it reasonable to start in the next 30 days?" Mini-summary: Skills, not slogans, create urgency. Do now: Add one KPI, one deadline, and one implication question to every discovery call script. Conclusion Most prospects won't move just because you're enthusiastic, or because your solution is objectively good. They move when the gap is real, measurable, and emotionally felt — and when they accept that DIY is riskier than it sounds. Your best persuasion isn't a monologue; it's a sequence of smart questions that lead the buyer to persuade themselves. Next steps for leaders Audit discovery calls for KPI + deadline + implication questions Build a lightweight "cost of delay" worksheet your team can use live Run weekly role-plays on diplomatic DIY-testing questions Align sales and delivery on realistic milestone plans (no fantasy timelines) Hold reps accountable to scheduling the next action with a date Author Bio Dr. Greg Story, Ph.D. in Japanese Decision-Making, is President of Dale Carnegie Tokyo Training and Adjunct Professor at Griffith University. He is a two-time winner of the Dale Carnegie "One Carnegie Award" (2018, 2021) and recipient of the Griffith University Business School Outstanding Alumnus Award (2012). As a Dale Carnegie Master Trainer, Greg is certified to deliver globally across all leadership, communication, sales, and presentation programs, including Leadership Training for Results. He has written several books, including three best-sellers — Japan Business Mastery, Japan Sales Mastery, and Japan Presentations Mastery — along with Japan Leadership Mastery and How to Stop Wasting Money on Training. His works have been translated into Japanese, including Za Eigyō (ザ営業), Purezen no Tatsujin (プレゼンの達人), Torēningu de Okane o Muda ni Suru no wa Yamemashō (トレーニングでお金を無駄にするのはやめましょう), and Gendaiban "Hito o Ugokasu" Rīdā (現代版「人を動かす」リーダー). Greg also publishes daily business insights on LinkedIn, Facebook, and Twitter, and hosts six weekly podcasts. On YouTube, he produces The Cutting Edge Japan Business Show, Japan Business Mastery, and Japan's Top Business Interviews, which are widely followed by executives seeking success strategies in Japan.

Luxus, Freiheit, Sicherheit – oder doch nur Stress in schöneren Schuhen? In dieser Folge von Betreutes Fühlen sprechen Leon und Atze über Geld. Über den neuen Materialismus der Gen Z, über TikTok-Träume von Dubai und darüber, warum viele junge Menschen heute stärker denn je nach finanzieller Sicherheit streben. Aber vor allem schauen wir auf das, was die Psychologie dazu sagt: Macht Geld wirklich glücklich? Wir nehmen euch mit in eine der spannendsten wissenschaftlichen Debatten der letzten Jahre und erzählen, warum am Ende plötzlich beide recht hatten. Fühlt euch gut betreut Leon & Atze Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/leonwindscheid/ https://www.instagram.com/atzeschroeder_offiziell/ Mehr zu unseren Werbepartnern findet ihr hier: https://linktr.ee/betreutesfuehlen Tickets: Atze: https://www.atzeschroeder.de/#termine Leon: https://leonwindscheid.de/tour/ Vorverkauf 2026: https://betreutes-fuehlen.ticket.io/ Quellen Buttrick, N., & Oishi, S. (2023). Money and happiness: A consideration of history and psychological mechanisms. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120(13), e2301893120. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2301893120 Kahneman, D., & Deaton, A. (2010). High income improves evaluation of life but not emotional well-being. Proceedings of the national academy of sciences, 107(38), 16489-16493. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1011492107 Killingsworth, M. A. (2021). Experienced well-being rises with income, even above $75,000 per year. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(4), e2016976118. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2016976118 Killingsworth, M. A., Kahneman, D., & Mellers, B. (2023). Income and emotional well-being: A conflict resolved. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120(10), e2208661120. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2208661120 Empfehlungen Betreutes Fühlen, Folge vom 08.06.2021: Wie fühlst du Geld? TEDxCambridge Talk von Matt Killingsworth: Want to be happier? Stay in the moment: https://www.ted.com/talks/matt_killingsworth_want_to_be_happier_stay_in_the_moment Redaktion: Andy Hartard / Julia Ditzer Produktion: Murmel Productions

Daniel Kahneman was an Israeli-American psychologist, awarded the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, and his work revolutionised our understanding of human decision-making. This is Kahneman's last public interview before his death on March 27, 2024.Keep up to date with Peter on SubstackKeep up to date with Kasia!Executive Producer: Rachel Barrettspecial thanks to Suzi Jamil! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer explains the power of intuition, how intuition became gendered, what he thinks Kahneman and Tversky's research agenda got wrong, and why it's a mistake to place intuition and conscious thinking on opposing ends of the cognition spectrum. Topics he discusses in this wide-ranging conversation with EconTalk's Russ Roberts include what Gigerenzer calls the "bias bias"--the overemphasis on claims of irrationality, why it's better to replace "nudging" with "boosting," and the limitations of AI in its current form as a replacement for human intelligence and intuition.

Dies ist Teil 2 der Serie „Wie erfüllend ist Geld?“. Nachdem es in Folge 1 um die Frage ging, wie man viel Geld verdient (Die 100 Millionen Euro Frage) und warum Geld allein nicht automatisch erfüllt, geht Anna Schaub in dieser Episode mit ihrer Mitarbeiterin Christiane noch tiefer!Die beiden sprechen über aktuelle Studien, die zeigen, dass Geld nur unter bestimmten Bedingungen das Glück steigert und was das mit deinem Mindset zu tun hat. Du erfährst, warum schnelles Geld selten nachhaltig ist, wie du dein finanzielles Leben bewusst gestalten kannst und was es braucht, um nicht nur wohlhabend, sondern auch erfüllt zu leben.Außerdem geht es um frühe Prägungen, Glaubenssätze und die Frage, wie finanzielle Freiheit auch mit durchschnittlichem Einkommen möglich wird.Falls du Teil 1 noch nicht gehört hast, lohnt sich der Einstieg dort: Wie erfüllend ist Geld? Teil 1 https://youtu.be/NG8DyDxRLCcImpulse für dichWas Studien wirklich über Geld und Glück sagenWarum dein Mindset darüber entscheidet, ob Geld dich glücklich machtWie du erkennst, ob du mit Geld Mangel kompensierst oder Erfüllung gestaltestWeshalb unter deinen Verhältnissen leben auch Freiheit bedeutetWie du trotz „kleinem“ Einkommen finanziell unabhängig leben kannstWeiterführende Links aus der Folge:Studien zur Verbindung von Einkommen und Glück:Kahneman & Deaton (2010): https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1011492107- Killingsworth (2021): https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2016976118- Killingsworth, Kahneman & Mellers (2023): https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2208661120Weitere Ressourcen:Morgan Housel – Die Psychologie des Geldes: https://www.m-vg.de/finanzbuchverlag/shop/article/20538-ueber-die-psychologie-des-geldes/Podcast mit Sam Harris: https://www.samharris.org/podcasts/making-sense-episodes/287-why-wealth-mattersInterview mit Morgan Housel bei Mel Robbins: https://www.melrobbins.com/episode/episode-327/Warren Buffett (Wikipedia): https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_BuffettPodcastfolge: Glaubenssätze auflösen: https://annaschaub.com/glauebnssaetze_aufloesen/Podcastfolge: Erfüllung vs. Glück: https://annaschaub.com/glueck-vs-erfuellung-wie-bekommt-man-beides/Coaches Map – Finde deinen ASC® Life Coach: https://annaschaub.com/coaches-uebersicht/Mehr von Anna SchaubWenn du deine Geld-Glaubenssätze klären möchtest, komm in die Coaching-Masterclass. Dort erforschen wir genau solche Themen – gemeinsam, mit Klarheit, Tiefe und echter Verbindung:https://annaschaub.com/coaching-masterclass/Du willst selbst als Coach begleiten? Informiere dich über die Life Coach ASC® Ausbildung: https://annaschaub.com/life-coaching-ausbildung/Entdecke auch Annas Buch „Die Erfüllungsformel“ – für ein selbstbestimmtes Leben mit innerer Klarheit:https://annaschaub.com/erfuellungsformel/Über Anna SchaubAnna Schaub ist Life Coach, Ausbilderin und Gründerin von ANNA SCHAUB COACHING®. Seit über 17 Jahren begleitet sie Menschen auf ihrem Weg zu mehr innerer Klarheit, Selbstverantwortung und echter Verbindung. Ihre Methode vereint Psychologie, Neurowissenschaft und Philosophie – fundiert, menschlich und praxisnah.

Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 3348: Leif challenges the conventional link between income and happiness by highlighting how mindful spending and intentional living can lead to greater freedom, satisfaction, and emotional well-being. Drawing on research, personal experience, and the FIRE movement, he illustrates how spending less, while counterintuitive in a consumer-driven culture, can actually unlock more time, autonomy, and joy. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://www.physicianonfire.com/spend-less-live-more/ Quotes to ponder: "High income buys life satisfaction but not happiness." "The things you own end up owning you. It's only after you lose everything that you're free to do anything." "A dollar spent is a dollar not saved or invested." Episode references: High income improves evaluation of life but not emotional well-being (Kahneman & Deaton, 2010): https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1011492107 You Need a Budget (YNAB): https://www.youneedabudget.com/ Scott's Cheap Flights (now Going): https://www.going.com/ Personal Capital (now Empower): https://www.empower.com/ Mint: https://mint.intuit.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 3348: Leif challenges the conventional link between income and happiness by highlighting how mindful spending and intentional living can lead to greater freedom, satisfaction, and emotional well-being. Drawing on research, personal experience, and the FIRE movement, he illustrates how spending less, while counterintuitive in a consumer-driven culture, can actually unlock more time, autonomy, and joy. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://www.physicianonfire.com/spend-less-live-more/ Quotes to ponder: "High income buys life satisfaction but not happiness." "The things you own end up owning you. It's only after you lose everything that you're free to do anything." "A dollar spent is a dollar not saved or invested." Episode references: High income improves evaluation of life but not emotional well-being (Kahneman & Deaton, 2010): https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1011492107 You Need a Budget (YNAB): https://www.youneedabudget.com/ Scott's Cheap Flights (now Going): https://www.going.com/ Personal Capital (now Empower): https://www.empower.com/ Mint: https://mint.intuit.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 3348: Leif challenges the conventional link between income and happiness by highlighting how mindful spending and intentional living can lead to greater freedom, satisfaction, and emotional well-being. Drawing on research, personal experience, and the FIRE movement, he illustrates how spending less, while counterintuitive in a consumer-driven culture, can actually unlock more time, autonomy, and joy. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://www.physicianonfire.com/spend-less-live-more/ Quotes to ponder: "High income buys life satisfaction but not happiness." "The things you own end up owning you. It's only after you lose everything that you're free to do anything." "A dollar spent is a dollar not saved or invested." Episode references: High income improves evaluation of life but not emotional well-being (Kahneman & Deaton, 2010): https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1011492107 You Need a Budget (YNAB): https://www.youneedabudget.com/ Scott's Cheap Flights (now Going): https://www.going.com/ Personal Capital (now Empower): https://www.empower.com/ Mint: https://mint.intuit.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Would you take a bet where you could win $100… but risk losing $100? Most people say no. Here's what that experiment reveals about why one critic outweighs ten compliments—and how to flip the math. ✅ Kahneman's coin-flip study shows losses hurt twice as much as gains feel good.✅ This is the negativity bias—your brain spots danger before comfort.✅ That's why one insult outweighs ten compliments.✅ You can rewire focus by balancing each negative with three positives.✅ Your worth isn't math—it's flow you create daily. Make sure to subscribe and follow me for updates, tips, and more ways to stay in the flow! You can connect with me on:• Instagram: @flow_network__• YouTube: @flow_network__• TikTok: @theflownetwork• LinkedIn Newsletter: Daily Flow Stay tuned for more great content, and as always, stay in the flow! Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Why do so many workplaces run on bullshit processes and procedures?  And how might Behavioural Science help resolve them?Episode SummaryIn this episode, I sit down with author, speaker and advisor James Healy to explore his book BS at Work — and the everyday nonsense we all recognise inside organisations.James argues that while behavioural science has transformed public policy and consumer behaviour, workplaces have lagged behind. We dig into why leaders keep choosing rituals over results, why nobody seems to ask “does this actually work?”, and how our search for simple answers can make complex systems worse.I ask James to unpack some of his favourite stories, including the strange origins of the DISC personality test — created by Wonder Woman's inventor, complete with “dominance” and “submission” baked in — and the utterly self-parodying experience he had with e-learning about not cheating on e-learning.

In an age of constant information, it's easy to feel lost in the noise. On this episode of Great Practice, Great Life, Steve Riley welcomes back attorney and author Ronald Chapman II to discuss how to navigate our complex digital world and take back your own truth. Drawing on his experiences as a Marine Corps JAG officer and nationally recognized trial lawyer, Ronald offers practical ways to think clearly in an algorithm-shaped media landscape. He shares strategies from Truth and Persuasion: In the Digital Revolution, showing how recognizing cognitive biases and applying systems thinking can strengthen your narrative and leadership. Their conversation moves from the psychology of decision-making to the modern “tribes” formed by our media diets, with touchpoints to Daniel Kahneman, Carl Sagan, and Carl Jung's call to “make the unconscious conscious.” They explore how tailored messaging contributes to fragmentation—and why that matters for lawyers speaking to clients, teams, and juries. Ronald underscores the value of introspection and clear communication, encouraging critical thinking, grounded inputs, and well-researched information. As Ronald and Steve examine the interplay of truth and persuasion, they emphasize authentic dialogue with yourself and others. Ronald's reflections on his career and growth testify to the power of integrity in both personal and professional realms. They close with a call to embrace complexity, think deliberately, and lead with purpose. In this episode, you will hear: An exploration of truth and persuasion in the digital age, informed by Ronald's experience as a Marine Corps JAG officer and trial lawyer How cognitive biases and systems thinking can enhance personal narratives, legal strategy, and leadership The impact of algorithm-driven curation on individual perspectives and broader societal fragmentation Why media “diets” and tailored messaging create modern tribes—and what that means for juries, clients, and families System 1 vs. System 2 thinking (Kahneman) and practical ways to guard against snap judgments The role of authenticity, introspection, and Jung's “make the unconscious conscious” in maintaining integrity Practical steps to reclaim focus, choose better inputs, and communicate more persuasively in a fragmented environment Subscribe & Review Never miss an episode. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or YouTube. ⭐Like what you hear? A quick review helps more people find the show.⭐ Supporting Resources: Ronald W. Chapman II: ronaldwchapman.com Episode 142: Stop Hiding Behind the Law: Leading with Truth with Ronald W. Chapman II: atticusadvantage.com/podcast/stop-hiding-behind-the-law-ronald-w-chapman-ii Truth and Persuasion: In the Digital Revolution by Ronald W. Chapman II: www.amazon.com/Truth-Persuasion-Revolution-Ronald-Chapman-ebook/dp/B0DNDC6G4N Free Chapter of Truth and Persuasion: ronaldwchapman.com/book Chapman Law Group: www.chapmanlawgroup.com Heretic with Hugh Grant: www.imdb.com/title/tt28015403 My Great Life Focus: mygreatlifefocus.com If there's a topic you would like us to cover on an upcoming episode, please email us at steve.riley@atticusadvantage.com. Episode Credits If you like this podcast and are thinking of creating your own, consider talking to my producer, Emerald City Productions. They helped me grow and produce the podcast you are listening to right now. Find out more at https://emeraldcitypro.com Let them know we sent you.

HEADLINE: Challenging Prospect Theory: Increasing Sensitivity to Loss in Human Behavior GUEST NAME: Tim Kane SUMMARY: Professor Tim Kane questions Kahneman and Tversky's Prospect Theory, presenting experiments that suggest humans exhibit increasing sensitivity to loss, rather than diminishing, impacting our understanding of complex rationality beyond financial gambles. Professor Tim Kane challenges Kahneman and Tversky's Prospect Theory, arguing that while losses hurt more than gains, people show increasing sensitivity to successive losses, not diminishing sensitivity. His chocolate experiment demonstrated higher demands to part with each subsequent piece, suggesting a "complex rationality" that differs in non-financial contexts from pure monetary gambles. 1900 SWITZERLAND

CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR 9-17-2025 FIRST HOUR 9-915HEADLINE: Global Tensions Escalate: Nuclear Drills, Urban Warfare, and Naval Probes Amidst Shifting Alliances GUEST NAME: Jeff McCausland SUMMARY: Russia conducts tactical nuclear drills with Belarus as drones probe Polish airspace, while Israel engages in difficult urban warfare in Gaza, and the US flexes naval power against Venezuela, all against a backdrop of potential regional miscalculations. Russia's Zapad 2025 includes tactical nuclear training with Belarus, as unidentified drones probe Polish territory. Israel faces six months of challenging urban combat in Gaza, learning from Fallujah. The USconducts naval exercises near Venezuela, potentially aimed at destabilizing Maduro. Regional flashpoints in Syria risk accidental escalation between Turkey and Israel. 1930 POLAND 915-930 CONTINUED HEADLINE: Global Tensions Escalate: Nuclear Drills, Urban Warfare, and Naval Probes Amidst Shifting Alliances GUEST NAME: Jeff McCausland SUMMARY: Russia conducts tactical nuclear drills with Belarus as drones probe Polish airspace,  930-945 HEADLINE: EU Schemes to Fund Ukraine with Frozen Russian Assets, While Oil Prices Fluctuate GUEST NAME: Michael Bernstam SUMMARY: The EU devises a "clever scheme" to fund Ukraine with Russia's frozen assets by converting cash into zero-interest bonds held by Euroclear, effectively confiscating the funds while navigating legal obstacles, as global oil markets remain volatile. The EU and G7 plan to use $170 billion of frozen Russian assets, largely held by Euroclear in Belgium, to fund Ukraine. This "confiscation" involves the European Union issuing zero-interest bonds to Euroclear, allowing cash to be transferred to Ukraine as an unpayable loan. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil prices fluctuate, influenced by sanctions and Trump's calls to stop buying Russian oil. 945-1000 HEADLINE: Challenging Prospect Theory: Increasing Sensitivity to Loss in Human Behavior GUEST NAME: Tim Kane SUMMARY: Professor Tim Kane questions Kahneman and Tversky's Prospect Theory, presenting experiments that suggest humans exhibit increasing sensitivity to loss, rather than diminishing, impacting our understanding of complex rationality beyond financial gambles. Professor Tim Kane challenges Kahneman and Tversky's Prospect Theory, arguing that while losses hurt more than gains, people show increasing sensitivity to successive losses, not diminishing sensitivity. His chocolate experiment demonstrated higher demands to part with each subsequent piece, suggesting a "complex rationality" that differs in non-financial contexts from pure monetary gambles. SECOND HOUR 10-1015 HEADLINE: Nepal's "Gen Z Revolution" Against Corruption and Inequality, Amidst Geopolitical Influence GUEST NAME: Kelly Currie SUMMARY: Nepal faces its biggest governance challenge in decades as disillusioned youth, frustrated by corrupt elites and deep inequality, ignite a "Gen Z revolution" marked by widespread protests, while China and India vie for influence in the poor, landlocked nation. Nepal is grappling with widespread "Gen Z" youth-led protests, marked by violence and targeting government institutions, driven by anger over corrupt elites and severe inequality. An interim government is forming to stabilize the country and organize elections. Meanwhile, Nepal, Asia's second poorest nation, is a growing battleground for influence between China and India. 1015-1030 HEADLINE: China's Deflationary Cycle: A Consequence of Overproduction and Centralized Control GUEST NAME: Anne Stevenson-Yang SUMMARY: China is mired in a fearful deflationary cycle driven by chronic overproduction and a government unable to shift from supply-side investment to stimulating consumption, perpetuating a "race to the bottom" under CCP leadership. China faces widespread deflation, causing consumer uncertainty and stemming from government-backed overproduction. The CCP leadership pours money into factories to meet GDP targets, despite overbuilt infrastructure and property. This "involution," or economy eating itself, continues due to a lack of innovative solutions and reluctance to cede economic control. 1030-1045 HEADLINE: China's Covert Strategic Support for Russia Fuels NATO Border Tensions GUEST NAME: Victoria Coates SUMMARY: China is actively supporting Russia's efforts to destabilize NATO's eastern flank, particularly through the Polish-Belarusian border, by pushing migrants and using proxies. This "partnership without limits," declared by Xi and Putin, aims to keep the United States entangled in European conflicts, preventing a focus on East Asia. Poland, however, remains resolute and is strengthening its defenses. China covertly aids Russia in destabilizing NATO via incidents on the Polish-Belarusian border, pushing migrants and using drones. This "partnership without limits" between Xi and Putin aims to keep the US preoccupied in Europe and the Middle East, preventing a focus on East Asia. Despite this, Poland, led by President Karol Nawrocki, remains resolute, strengthening its defenses and economy. 1045-1100 HEADLINE: China's EV Market Faces Global Headwinds and Domestic Overcapacity GUEST NAME: Alan Tonelson SUMMARY: Despite innovation, China's electric vehicle market, led by BYD, is experiencing production drops, price wars, and significant international pushback due to quality, surveillance fears, and predatory trade practices, exposing a broader economic deflation. China's EV market leader BYD saw production drops amidst price wars and over 150 producers. Global markets, including the US, Japan, Germany, and South Korea, resist Chinese EVs due to surveillance concerns and predatory trade practices. Beijing maintains employment through municipal loans, but widespread overcapacity and deflation are significant challenges. THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 HEADLINE: Commodity Prices Surge Amidst Global Demand and UK Political Turmoil GUEST NAME: Simon Constable SUMMARY: While the south of France enjoys a pleasant harvest, global commodity prices for essential metals and select food items are spiking due to high demand and supply constraints, mirroring political unrest and leadership challenges within the UK's Labour Party. Simon Constable reports on rising commodity prices: copper, iron ore, and aluminum are up due to high demand for data centers and supply issues. Coffee prices have spiked by 51%, though cocoa and Brent crude have moderated. In the UK, Labour Party leader Keir Starmer faces internal dissent and "plastic patriotism" protests, with talk of replacing him by early next year. 1115-1130 CONTINUED HEADLINE: Commodity Prices Surge Amidst Global Demand and UK Political Turmoil GUEST NAME: Simon Constable SUMMARY: While the south of France enjoys a pleasant harvest, global commodity prices for 1130-1145 HEADLINE: Iraqi Intelligence Uncovers Global Islamic State Network, Highlighting African Hub's Expanding Influence GUEST NAMES: Caleb Weiss and Bill Roggio SUMMARY: The Iraqi National Intelligence Service (INIS) has made its first international bust in West Africa, revealing how Islamic State (ISIS) cells, particularly the wealthy ISWAP, are funding global attacks and supporting ISISoperations, including those in Iraq, amidst shifting jihadist strongholds and Western withdrawal from the Sahel. The Iraqi National Intelligence Service (INIS) revealed its first international operation, dismantling an Islamic State (ISIS) cell in West Africa. This cell, linked to the powerful ISWAP, was financing attacks in Europe and supporting ISIS operations in Iraq. This highlights Africa's growing importance as a hub for the global Islamic State network, amidst a complex regional jihadist landscape. 1145-1200 CONTINUED HEADLINE: Iraqi Intelligence Uncovers Global Islamic State Network, Highlighting African Hub's Expanding Influence FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 HEADLINE: Re-evaluating Liberalism: Cass Sunstein's Defense and Critiques of its Manifest Failings GUEST NAME: Peter Berkowitz SUMMARY: Peter Berkowitz analyzes Cass Sunstein's defense of liberalism "under siege," highlighting criticisms from both the new right and the woke left, and arguing that liberalism's own principles, when taken to extremes, contribute to its current pressures. Peter Berkowitz reviews Cass Sunstein's book On Liberalism: In Defense of Freedom, where Sunstein argues liberalism is "under siege" from criticisms on the right (permissiveness, criminality) and left (too weak on inequality, racism). Berkowitz suggests Sunstein mischaracterizes liberalism by overemphasizing "experiments of living" over equal rights, and neglects how liberalism's vices contribute to its challenges. 1215-1230 CONTINUED HEADLINE: Re-evaluating Liberalism: Cass Sunstein's Defense and Critiques of its Manifest Failings 1230-1245 HEADLINE: Erdogan's Neo-Ottoman Ambitions: Turkey's Escalating Confrontation with Israel and Regional Power Plays GUEST NAME: Sinan Ciddi SUMMARY: Erdogan's Neo-Ottoman ambitions are driving Turkey to increasingly confront Israel through vilifying rhetoric, alleged support for Hamas cells, and a growing military footprint across the Mediterranean and Africa, risking miscalculation and armed conflict in Syria. Erdogan is pursuing Neo-Ottomanism, escalating tensions with Israelthrough vilifying rhetoric and alleged MIT involvement in Hamas plots. Turkey's military expansion, including bases in Somalia and northern Cyprus, and advanced weaponry like drones and hypersonic missiles, positions it to dominate the Mediterranean and challenge Israel. Miscalculation in Syria poses a risk of armed conflict. 1245-100 AM HEADLINE: Erdogan's Neo-Ottoman Ambitions: Turkey's Escalating Confrontation with Israel and Regional Power Plays

Send us a textOne of the biggest mistakes leaders make with new initiatives is selling the benefits without naming what it might cost teachers. Grounded in Kahneman and Tversky's Prospect Theory, this episode explores why the fear of loss often outweighs the promise of gain. Whether it's autonomy, time, competence, or belonging, the risks teachers anticipate can feel heavier than the advantages leaders emphasize.Through research and real-life examples, you'll learn how to shift pushback into progress by addressing those hidden losses head-on. The takeaway is simple: don't just highlight the gains, acknowledge and reduce the losses teachers fear. Resistance isn't about “fear of change.” It's about fear of loss. And until you name the loss, the gain won't matter.

Our guest in this episode is Noel Hurley. Noel is a highly experienced technology strategist with a long career at the cutting edge of computing. He spent two decade-long stints at Arm, the semiconductor company whose processor designs power hundreds of billions of devices worldwide. Today, he's a co-founder of Literal Labs, where he's developing Tsetlin Machines. Named after Michael Tsetlin, a Soviet mathematician, these are a kind of machine learning model that are energy-efficient, flexible, and surprisingly effective at solving complex problems - without the opacity or computational overhead of large neural networks.AI has long had two main camps, or tribes. One camp works with neural networks, including Large Language Models. Neural networks are brilliant at pattern matching, and can be compared to human instinct, or fast thinking, to use Daniel Kahneman´s terminology. Neural nets have been dominant since the first Big Bang in AI in 2012, when Geoff Hinton and others demonstrated the foundations for deep learning.For decades before the 2012 Big Bang, the predominant form of AI was symbolic AI, also known as Good Old Fashioned AI. This can be compared to logical reasoning, or slow learning in Kahneman´s terminology.Tsetlin Machines have characteristics of both neural networks and symbolic AI. They are rule-based learning systems built from simple automata, not from neurons or weights. But their learning mechanism is statistical and adaptive, more like machine learning than traditional symbolic AI. Selected follow-ups:Noel Hurley - Literal LabsA New Generation of Artificial Intelligence - Literal LabsMichael Tsetlin - WikipediaThinking, Fast and Slow - book by Daniel Kahneman54x faster, 52x less energy - MLPerf Inference metricsIntroducing the Model Context Protocol (MCP) - AnthropicPioneering Safe, Efficient AI - ConsciumSmartphones and Beyond - a personal history of Psion and SymbianThe Official History of Arm - ArmInterview with Sir Robin Saxby - IT ArchiveHow Spotify came to be worth billions - BBCMusic: Spike Protein, by Koi Discovery, available under CC0 1.0 Public Domain Declaration

Do you massively over-estimate how much you can accomplish in any period of time? Do you struggle to work out how long it's going to take you to complete a particular project? Friend, same. Don't worry, though, because there are some well-recognised psychological reasons for that, and plenty of advice too. There's just one problem: when it comes to projects that are linked to your sense of self-worth, time management is even trickier, and the usual strategies might not cut it. Luckily for you, your imperfect buddy is here to throw you a lifeline.Here's a helpful article with some tips about how to get better at planning your time.References:Buehler, R., Griffin, D., and Ross, M. 1994: 'Exploring the "Planning Fallacy": Why People Underestimate Their Task Completion Times', Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 67/3: 366-381.Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. 1977: 'Intuitive Prediction: Biases and CorrectiveProcedures', Technical Report PTR-1042-7746, Defense Advanced Research ProjectsAgency - Advanced Decision Technology, Decision Research, Eugene, OR. 

In this episode of ABA On Call, Drs. Rick Kubina and Doug Kostewicz delve into the cognitive psychology classic "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman. With wit and depth, they explore System 1 and System 2 thinking, cognitive biases, regression to the mean, and the law of least effort, recasting each concept through a behavioral analytic lens. Rather than dismissing the cognitive approach, Rick and Doug model respectful synthesis, showing how behavior analysts can both challenge and learn from other psychological traditions. This engaging conversation helps bridge the gap between behavior science and mainstream psychology, offering practical insights for clinicians, researchers, and curious practitioners alike.   To earn CEUs for listening, click here, log in or sign up, pay the CEU fee, + take the attendance verification to generate your certificate! Don't forget to subscribe and follow and leave us a rating and review.   Show Notes: https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Kahneman

Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel Prize for proving we're not as rational as we think. In this timeless conversation we discuss how to think clearly in a world full of noise, the invisible forces that cloud our judgement, and why more information doesn't equal better thinking. Kahneman also reveals the mental model he discovered at 22 that still guides elite teams today.  Approximate timestamps:  (00:36) – Episode Introduction   (05:37) – Daniel Kahneman on Childhood and Early Psychology   (12:44) – Influences and Career Path   (15:32) – Working with Amos Tversky   (17:20) – Happiness vs. Life Satisfaction   (21:04) – Changing Behavior: Myths and Realities   (24:38) – Psychological Forces Behind Behavior   (28:02) – Understanding Motivation and Situational Forces   (30:45) – Situational Awareness and Clear Thinking   (34:11) – Intuition, Judgment, and Algorithms   (39:33) – Improving Decision-Making with Structured Processes   (43:26) – Organizational Thinking and Dissent   (46:00) – Judgment Quality and Biases   (50:12) – Teaching Negotiation Through Understanding   (52:14) – Procedures That Elevate Group Thinking   (55:30) – Recording and Reviewing Decisions   (57:58) – The Concept of Noise in Decision-Making   (01:01:14) – Reducing Noise and Improving Accuracy   (01:04:09) – Replication Crisis and Changing Beliefs   (01:08:21) – Why Psychologists Overestimate Their Hypotheses   (01:12:20) – Closing Thoughts and Gratitude Thanks to MINT MOBILE for sponsoring this episode: Get this new customer offer and your 3-month Unlimited wireless plan for just 15 bucks a month at MINTMOBILE.com/KNOWLEDGEPROJECT. Newsletter - The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it's completely free. Learn more and sign up at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Upgrade — If you want to hear my thoughts and reflections at the end of the episode, join our membership: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and get your own private feed. Watch on YouTube: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@tkppodcast Photograph: Richard Saker/The Guardian Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 3217: Chris from Keep Thrifty explores how our emotional relationship with money evolves through three distinct phases: stress, excitement, and indifference. By shifting your mindset from scarcity to self-awareness, you can stop letting money control your choices and instead use it as a tool to design a life aligned with your values. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://www.keepthrifty.com/2017/04/17/three-phases-money-feelings/ Quotes to ponder: "Money stress is a destroyer of marriages, health, and happiness." "The biggest risk of money excitement is viewing money as the goal instead of a goal enabler." "The ultimate state we can hope to achieve is to eliminate money as a factor in our decision-making." Episode references: High income and happiness study by Kahneman & Deaton: https://www.pnas.org/content/107/38/16489 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 3217: Chris from Keep Thrifty explores how our emotional relationship with money evolves through three distinct phases: stress, excitement, and indifference. By shifting your mindset from scarcity to self-awareness, you can stop letting money control your choices and instead use it as a tool to design a life aligned with your values. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://www.keepthrifty.com/2017/04/17/three-phases-money-feelings/ Quotes to ponder: "Money stress is a destroyer of marriages, health, and happiness." "The biggest risk of money excitement is viewing money as the goal instead of a goal enabler." "The ultimate state we can hope to achieve is to eliminate money as a factor in our decision-making." Episode references: High income and happiness study by Kahneman & Deaton: https://www.pnas.org/content/107/38/16489 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Thinking, Fast and Slow Two systems drive the way we think and make choices, Daniel Kahneman explains: System One is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System Two is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. Examining how both systems function within the mind, Kahneman exposes the extraordinary capabilities as well as the biases of fast thinking and the pervasive influence of intuitive impressions on our thoughts and our choices. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, he shows where we can trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking, contrasting the two-system view of the mind with the standard model of the rational economic agent.Kahneman's singularly influential work has transformed cognitive psychology and launched the new fields of behavioral economics and happiness studies. In this path-breaking book, Kahneman shows how the mind works, and offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and personal lives--and how we can guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble.Want to be a guest on Book 101 Review? Send Daniel Lucas a message on PodMatch, here: https://www.podmatch.com/hostdetailpreview/17372807971394464fea5bae3 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode we explore one big long answer to an email from Bob about why people refuse to spend money in retirement despite having more than adequate resources.  We touch on the math and psychology of the Possibility Effect and how to use Base Rates to overcome that, what the numbers say you really should be afraid of, how to break down expenses to alleviate fears and the real underlying problem in many cases, which is not fear, but personal identity rooted in "Frugality Inertia."And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Books Referenced:"The Top Five Regrets of the Dying" by Bronnie Ware"Falling Upward" by Richard Rohr"Strength to Strength" and "Build The Life You Want" by Arthur Brooks"The Second Mountain" by David Brooks"The Soul of Wealth" by Daniel Crosby"The Art of Spending Money" by Morgan Housel"Die With Zero" by Bill PerkinsAdditional Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterMorgan Housel Podcast:  The Morgan Housel Podcast, Episode 1: The Art of Spending MoneyNarrative Psychology:  How to tell stories that give you meaning | Jane Goodall, Terry Crews & Dan McAdamsChooseFI Pod #508:  508 | 5% SWR, Revealed Preferences, and the 3 Stories | Frank VasquezFour Idols Video:  https://tinyurl.com/4vua3eb2 Satisficing:  Satisficing - WikipediaBreathless AI-Bot Summary:This episode tackles the psychology behind the "golden coffin" phenomenon – wealthy retirees who maintain sub 3% withdrawal rates, essentially ensuring they'll die with maximum assets. While justified as prudent planning, the real barriers to enjoying retirement wealth are more complex and fascinating.We dive into cognitive science, exploring how the "possibility effect" (identified by Kahneman and Tversky) distorts our risk perception. Your brain amplifies the tiny probability of running out of money while downplaying the vastly higher probability of running out of time. A 55-year-old man has an 11.3% chance of dying within 10 years – yet many obsess over financial scenarios with less than 1% probability of occurring.Beyond cognitive biases lies an identity crisis. Many successful investors have spent decades defining themselves through wealth accumulation. This "frugality inertia" becomes so embedded in self-image that spending feels wrong, even when mathematically sound. The financial services industry exploits these fears, selling products that promise impossible certainties while encouraging hoarding behaviors.The solution? Reframing retirement spending around four evidence-based wellbeing categories: relationships, experiences, work avoidance (paying for freedom from tedious tasks), and giving. These categories reliably generate happiness returns far superior to watching account balances grow. For those struggling to make this psychological transition, books like "Falling Upward" (Rohr), "Strength to Strength" (Brooks), and "The Soul of Wealth" (Crosby) provide frameworks for evolving beyond accumulation as life purpose.What retirement story are you living? The miser who dies rich but unfulfilled, or the transformed Scrooge who discovers generosity's joy? The choice defines not just your retirement, but your legacy.Support the show

I interviewed 60 Brits to debunk one of psychology's greatest myths. Priming is one of the best-known biases in behavioural science. Kahneman mentions it 35 times in his best-selling book Thinking Fast and Slow. And yet, I'm not convinced it really works. In five separate experiments, I tested it. Does priming work, or is it a myth?  The studies:  Authenticity study: https://ibb.co/5W14DM2N Creativity study: https://ibb.co/FbxxNMDf Guilty study: https://ibb.co/XrTLXrY4 Anchoring + priming study: https://ibb.co/99LLw7G9 Reading time study: https://ibb.co/LDYc18yF ---  Subscribe to the (free) Nudge Newsletter: https://nudge.ck.page/profile Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/phill-agnew-22213187/ Watch Nudge on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@nudgepodcast/ Learn more about Voxpopme: https://www.voxpopme.com/ ---  Sources:  Bargh, J. A., Chen, M., & Burrows, L. (1996). Automaticity of social behavior: Direct effects of trait construct and stereotype activation on action. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 71(2), 230–244. Chernev, A. (2011). Semantic anchoring in sequential evaluations of vices and virtues. Journal of Consumer Research, 37(5), 761–774. Doyen, S., Klein, O., Pichon, C. L., & Cleeremans, A. (2012). Behavioral priming: It's all in the mind, but whose mind? PLoS ONE, 7(1), e29081. Fitzsimons, G. J., Chartrand, T. L., & Fitzsimons, G. M. (2008). Automatic effects of brand exposure on motivated behavior: How Apple makes you “think different”. Journal of Consumer Research, 35(1), 21–35. Goldsmith, K., Cho, E., & Dhar, R. (2012). Priming creativity: The effects of subliminal priming on creative problem solving. In Z. Gürhan-Canli, C. Otnes, & R. Zhu (Eds.), Advances in Consumer Research (Vol. 40, pp. 472–473). Association for Consumer Research. Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux. Kahneman, D. (2012, September 26). A letter to the priming research community [Open email].

In this episode we answer emails from Luc, Craig, Luke and Lucky.  We discuss updating the website, my recent roundtable on the Stacking Benjamins podcast, Achilles heels, and the inherent problems with not using proper forecasting techniques applied to CAPE ratios and other things, new funds like AVUQ and FFUT, and gold versus bonds in a portfolio.Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterStacking Benjamins YouTube Live Stream Roundtable:  Decumulational Strategies: The Special Retirement Spend Down Strategy RoundtableListen Notes Link:  Risk Parity Radio (podcast) - Frank Vasquez | Listen NotesInterview of Bob Elliot on the Compound Podcast:  The Blue Chips of Junk | TCAF 175Morningstar AVUQ:  AVUQ – Avantis U.S. Quality ETF – ETF Stock Quote | MorningstarBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:What's the real Achilles heel of risk parity investing? It's not what you might expect. While many point to historical data limitations, the true challenge is psychological—accepting lower returns during bull markets in exchange for better protection when everything crashes. This fundamental trade-off defines the strategy's purpose: enabling you to spend more money now rather than maximizing wealth at death.The forecasting techniques that guide our investment decisions matter tremendously. Drawing from experts like Kahneman, Tetlock, Duke, and Gigerenzer, we explore why base rates (long-term historical averages) consistently outperform crystal ball approaches like CAPE ratios. When investment professionals try predicting market returns based on current valuations, they're often spectacularly wrong—more so than if they'd simply used historical averages. Remember: in forecasting, being less wrong beats being precisely incorrect.The gold versus bonds debate continues to evolve. Bob Elliott, formerly of Bridgewater, suggests that since abandoning the gold standard in the 1970s, gold has performed as well as or better than bonds as a stock diversifier. While 30% gold allocation might seem excessive to some, it could make sense for those concerned about currency risks. Historical context shows both assets have experienced extended periods of outperformance, making a combined approach more resilient than trying to predict which will shine next.We've entered a golden era for do-it-yourself investors, with new ETFs constantly emerging to fill specific niches. Avantis recently launched AVUQ for quality growth exposure, while Fidelity introduced FFUT for managed futures—both reflecting growing demand for sophisticated investment options previously unavailable to retail investors.Don't forget our ongoing campaign supporting the Father McKenna Center for hungry and homeless people in Washington DC. Your donation not only helps those in need but also moves you to the front of our email response line. As we explore these complex investment topics together, we remain committed to freely sharing knowledge rather than hiding it behind paywalls—continuing the spirit of open collaboration that defined the early FIRE movement.Support the show

I NEEDED to record this episode because I keep having these conversations with parents living in Procrastination Purgatory, and I'm like "HELLO, I SEE YOU BECAUSE I WAS YOU!"Remember promising yourself you'd stop yelling "tomorrow"? And tomorrow came and went?So I'm diving into why our brains sabotage our parenting goals. There's actual science behind the "yell now, feel guilty later" cycle. (It's called delay discounting.)

This one's gonna stretch your brain a bit, and I think you're gonna love it. Today, we're diving into something that doesn't get enough attention in the world of self-development: how lifelong learning unlocks one of the most underrated superpowers we all have — intuition.Resources:Sources referenced:Gary Klein – Recognition-Primed Decision Model (RPD) Book: Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions Summary: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recognition-primed_decisionSubconscious processing capacity: 11 million bits per secondNørretranders, Tor. The User Illusion: Cutting Consciousness Down to Size50 bits per second (conscious awareness)Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow (System 1 vs. System 2 Thinking)Science of Intuition in Experts (Firefighters, Chess Masters, Surgeons)Ericsson, K. Anders et al. The Role of Deliberate Practice in the Acquisition of Expert Performancehttps://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-9280.1993.tb00533.xNeuroscience Behind Pattern Recognition and ExpertiseGobet, F., & Simon, H. A. (1996). The roles of recognition processes and look-ahead search in time-constrained expert problem solving: Evidence from grand-master-level chess.https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1996-02626-001 Brain.fm App(First month Free, then 20% off subscription)Discount Code: coachdamiensdLinks:IG:@coachdamien_sd@damienrayevans@livinthedream_podcast YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCS6VuPgtVsdBpDj5oN3YQTgFB:https://www.facebook.com/coachdamienSD/

Back in 1923, Claude Hopkins wrote the definitive book on advertising. David Ogilvy said the book “changed his life,” and over eight million copies of the book have been sold. But are the 102-year-old tips still accurate today? In this episode of Nudge, I find out.  You'll learn: Why the phrase “Food Shot Through Guns” helped sell more cereal.  How a sewing machine manufacturer increased his sales 9-fold.  The four predictions Hopkins got wrong.  And evidence-backed studies that reveal what he got right.  ---- Download the Reading List: https://nudge.kit.com/readinglist Sign up to my newsletter: https://www.nudgepodcast.com/mailing-list Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/phill-agnew-22213187/ Watch Nudge on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@nudgepodcast/  ---- Sources: BBC. (2016). Corsodyl: How an unnerving ad campaign works. BBC News. Behavioural Insights Team. (2013). Applying behavioural insights to charitable giving. Government & Society. Berger, J., Moe, W. W., & Schweidel, D. A. (2023). What holds attention? Linguistic drivers of engagement. Journal of Marketing, 87(5). https://doi.org/10.1177/00222429231152880 Berger, J., Sorensen, A. T., & Rasmussen, S. J. (2010). Positive effects of negative publicity: When negative reviews increase sales. Marketing Science, 29(5). https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.1090.0557 Harris, K. [Kamala Harris]. (2024, March 1). Enemy Within | Harris-Walz 2024 [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQnugO8SEx0 Hopkins, C. (1923). Scientific advertising. Printers' Ink Publishing Company. Hüttel, B. A., Schumann, J. H., & Wagner, C. J. (2018). How consumers assess free e-services: The role of benefit-inflation and cost-deflation effects. Journal Name, 21(3). Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux. Monnier, A., & Thomas, M. (2022). Experiential and analytical price evaluations: How experiential product description affects prices. Journal of Consumer Research, forthcoming. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4046802 Pick, D. F., Sweeney, J., & Clay, J. A. (1991). Creative advertising and the von Restorff effect. Psychological Reports, 69(3, Pt 1), 923–926. https://doi.org/10.2466/PR0.69.7.923-926 Rogers, T., & Lasky-Fink, J. (2023). Writing for busy readers: Communicate more effectively in the real world. Schindler, R. M., & Yalch, R. (2006). It seems factual, but is it? Effects of using sharp versus round numbers in advertising claims. Advances in Consumer Research, 33, 586-590. Association for Consumer Research. Sutherland, S. (1992). Irrationality. Pinter Publishers. Trump, D. J. [Donald J Trump]. (2023, September 12). Wolves [Video]. YouTube. https://youtu.be/pxz9sxUqgsE Weiner, M. (Writer), & Draper, M. (Director). (2008). Mad Men (Season 1, Episode 11) [TV series episode]. In M. Weiner (Producer), Mad Men. Lions Gate Television.

In 1974, two psychologists, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, as the New Yorker once put it, "changed the way we think about the way we think." The prevailing wisdom, before their landmark research went viral (in the way things went viral in the 1970s), was that human beings were, for the most part, rational optimizers always making the kinds of judgments and decisions that best maximized the potential of the outcomes under their control. This was especially true in economics at the time. The story of how they generated a paradigm shift so powerful that it reached far outside economics and psychology to change the way all of us see ourselves is a fascinating tale, one that required the invention of something this episode is all about: The Psychology of Single Questions.They Thought We Were RidiculousOpinion ScienceBehavioral GroovesHow Minds ChangeShow NotesNewsletterPatreon