Podcast appearances and mentions of robert shiller

Is there more pain coming for the stock market? Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 have now hit correction territory and people are hoping that the worst is behind us. I would tell people to be prepared for more pain. The tariffs are still a big concern and the uncertainty around them has not cleared. Also, even with the pullback valuations for stocks are still high. We base our concerns on the fact that many valuation ratios are elevated compared to historical levels, but one that really stands out is the CAPE ratio, which stands for cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings. This was developed by professor Robert Shiller many years ago and the ratio uses a 10-year average of inflation adjusted earnings to value stocks. In January, it was at 37.74, which was the third highest level in the past 100 years. Not only was it the third highest level, but it was higher than what it was in 1929. After the ratio hit these high levels in the past, stocks declined dramatically. I believe with the headwinds ahead, we could be in for some stormy waters over the next 3 to 6 months.   How much more do top consumers spend? When looking at consumer spending it is obvious that is not a constant level straight across the board and people making more money would obviously be spending more money in the economy. But just how much more is the high-end consumer spending than the average consumer? The top 10% of consumers account for 49.7% of consumer spending. If you're thinking that sounds high, you are correct. You would have to go back to 1989 to match that type of imbalance for consumer spending. Is it a bad thing? Not really. The high-end consumer is what is keeping the economy going overall as it creates jobs and allows for the continued movement of money.   Holding stocks long-term doesn't always pay off You probably have heard that you should hold stocks for the long-term and you'll be fine. I generally I agree with this statement, but there are always exceptions to the rule and that holds true here. If you look at different 10-year holding periods, you will see more losing periods than you probably expected. As an example, the 10-year period ending February 2009 had a loss of 37.4%. There are other 10-year holding periods such as the ones ending September 1974, August 1939, June 1921, October 1857 and April 1842 that all had losses ranging from 23 to 37.3 percent. Those losses are in real terms adjusted for inflation. One reason these periods had great losses is they were generally periods when there was high speculation that then caused prices to rise to elevated levels just to see them fall back to reality. This is why it is important for investors to not just buy into a story of a stock, but to understand what they are paying for the earnings, sales, book value, and cash flow of the business. If you don't keep your eye on these valuation ratios, you would not realize when the stock becomes overpriced and you could end up with a big loss and then be left wondering what happened. I've been managing money for over 40 years and have continued to keep my eye on the ball as far as what we pay for any investment whether it is stock, real estate or bonds. If you invest blindly just based on the stock going up and the hype around the story, you could end up with a period of 10 years where you made no gains and then think stocks are risky or a bad investment. In a situation like that, it is similar to driving down the street with a bag over your head not seeing what is around you.   Financial Planning: What is Form 5498? When funds are distributed from a retirement account, a 1099-r is generated and used to file your taxes to report what kind of distribution it was.  This is true whether the distribution is taxable or not.  For example, if you rolled money from a 401(k) to an IRA, it is a non-taxable rollover, but a 1099-r is still created since funds left the 401(k) which needs to be reported.  A Form 5498 is generated when funds are received by any type of IRA for any reason.  So, if you made contributions, conversions, or recharacterizations with a traditional, Roth, SEP, or Simple IRA, you will receive a 5498 stating what happened.  Depending on what you did, you will likely need to report the activity on your taxes.  The problem is, in many cases the Form 5498 is not ready until May of the following year, even though taxes are due the previous month, on April 15th.  Here are some examples where this can create problems. If you did an indirect rollover where you withdrew retirement funds and replaced them within 60 days, the withdrawal should not be taxable.  However, if only the 1099-r from the distribution is reported because there is no 5498 that shows money was replaced, it may be reported as a taxable distribution rather than a rollover.  If you are doing backdoor Roth contributions, a 1099-r is generated when the funds are converted from the traditional IRA to the Roth.  If it is not also reported that a non-deductible contribution was first made to the traditional IRA, the conversion may be treated as a taxable conversion.  Lastly, if you have been making deductible traditional IRA contributions, but there is no 5498 showing the contributions, you may not receive the tax deduction.  I don't know why this form comes later than other tax forms, but this is necessary to be aware of to correctly report tax information and avoid unnecessary tax.   Companies Discussed: Tesla, Inc (TSLA), Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT), Lear Corporation (LEAR) & Gilead Sciences, Inc.

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 21: You Can't Handle the Truth.LEARNING: Overconfidence leads to poor investment decisions. Measure your returns against benchmarks. “If you think you can forecast the future better than others, you're going to ignore risks that you shouldn't ignore because you'll treat the unlikely as possible.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 21: You Can't Handle the Truth.Chapter 21: You Can't Handle the TruthIn this chapter, Larry discusses how investors delude themselves about their skills and performance, leading to persistent and costly investment mistakes.The deluded investorAccording to Larry, evidence from the field of behavioral finance suggests that investors persist in deluding themselves about their skills and performance. This persistent self-deception leads to costly investment mistakes, emphasizing the need for continuous vigilance in investment decisions.Larry quotes a New York Times article in which professors Richard Thaler and Robert Shiller noted that individual investors and money managers persist in believing that they are endowed with more and better information than others and can profit by picking stocks. This insight helps explain why individual investors think they can:Pick stocks that will outperform the market.Time the market, so they're in it when it's rising and out of it when it's falling.Identify the few active managers who will beat their respective benchmarks.The overconfident investorLarry adds that even when individuals acknowledge the difficulty of beating the market, they are buoyed by the hope of success. He quotes noted economist Peter Bernstein: “Active management is extraordinarily difficult because there are so many knowledgeable investors and information does move so fast. The market is hard to beat. There are a lot of smart people trying to do the same thing. Nobody's saying that it's easy. But possible? Yes.”This slim possibility keeps hope alive. Overconfidence, fueled by this hope, leads investors to believe they will be among the few who succeed.Why investors spend so much time and money on actively managed mutual fundsLarry also examined another study, Positive Illusions and Forecasting Errors in Mutual Fund Investment Decisions,...

We're exploring the connection between consumer sentiment and market performance. Consumer confidence can significantly influence a business's performance, and understanding this relationship can help you make smarter, more strategic decisions. Book mentioned in this episode: Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism by George Akerlof and Robert Shiller

In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Terry Loebs from Pulsenomics for a deep dive into forecasting home prices and the housing market. Terry has been at the forefront of measuring and projecting home prices for decades. About Terry Loebs Terry Loebs possesses more than 35 years of experience in the capital markets and in developing innovative data-driven products and services. He started his career on Wall Street evaluating and trading mortgage whole loans and servicing rights portfolios while earning his MBA at The New York University Stern School of Business. After joining the Case Shiller Weiss, Inc. (CSW) in 1996, Terry led the commercial development of the Case-Shiller Indexes®, the subsequent effort to establish their reputation as a premier home price performance benchmark, and the launch of the first AVM for both consumers and lenders. After the 2002 acquisition of CSW by Fiserv, Terry managed the property data analytics team at the merged organization for three years before reuniting with Robert Shiller at MacroMarkets LLC. In 2011, Terry founded Pulsenomics®, an independent research and index product development firm that leverages expertise in data analytics, opinion research, financial markets, and economics to deliver unique insight and market intelligence to institutional clients, partners, and the public at large. Since 2010, Terry has managed an expert survey panel comprised of over 150 leading economists, investment strategists, portfolio managers, and real estate market analysts to produce the quarterly Home Price Expectations Survey™, which is currently sponsored by Fannie Mae.  For nearly a decade, Terry also served as lead independent trustee and eventually board chairman overseeing a multibillion-dollar ETF trust until its sale in early 2024. Here's a glimpse of what you'll learn:  Can people really forecast the housing market? Or home prices? Can we better understand how housing wealth impacts the broader economy? Why legacy macroeconomic confidence indicators don't include housing and why that matters What the Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey tells us about the housing market for 2024 and beyond The surprising way that forecasters' views for housing in 2024 are different than they have been for the last 15 years Why home prices have “downward stickiness” How forecasting long-term home prices is different from forecasting the next year and what to look for long term The one housing market indicator that 84% of expert panelists agree on Which risks are not yet priced into the housing market expectations The big macro economic trends that are potentially the most impactful for the housing market in the coming years. Resources mentioned in this episode: Terry Loebs | LinkedIn Pulsenomics Mike Simonsen | LinkedIn Altos Research Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets. Follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights: Altos on Twitter Mike on Twitter About Altos Research The Top of Mind Podcast is produced by Altos Research. Each week, Altos tracks every home for sale in the country - all the pricing, and all the changes in pricing - and synthesizes those analytics to make them available before becoming visible through traditional channels. Schedule a demo to see Altos in action. You can also get a copy of our free eBook: How To Use Market Data to Build Your Real Estate Business.

Me flipa el episodio de The bear en Copenhague. Marcus, que está de prácticas en el Noma, le pregunta a su jefe cómo se hizo bueno en esto. La contestación de Luca es cautivadora: «Esto trata menos de habilidad y más de estar abierto. Hacia el mundo, hacia ti mismo, hacia los demás. Las cosas increíbles que yo he comido no se explican por una habilidad excepcional o una técnica sofisticada, se explican porque alguien se inspiró. Puedes pasar todo el tiempo del mundo aquí, pero si no pasas tiempo suficiente allí fuera. Ayuda, claro, estar rodeado de gente buena». Marcus le pregunta entonces si mereció la pena, a lo que Luca responde: «No lo sé, pregúntame mañana». Kapital es posible gracias a sus colaboradores: ¿Quieres invertir como Amancio? ¿Replicar la cartera de Florentino? Hasta hace poco la inversión en private equity estaba reservada para los altos patrimonios, pero con Crescenta, la primera gestora digital de capital privado, por fin podrás acceder también tú a todos esos fondos. A golpe de clic y con una inversión a partir de 10.000 euros, te daremos acceso a los fondos en los que llevan invirtiendo los grandes inversores durante décadas: EQT, Cinven, Vitruvian y más. Invierte como y con los mejores en Crescenta.com y accede a fondos con rentabilidades esperadas superiores al 15% anualizado. Rentabilidades pasadas no implican rentabilidades futuras. ⁠Consulta riesgos y condiciones⁠. Crescenta, la inversión relevante para tu futuro. A través de la reinterpretación y la dinamización de espacios singulares los chicos del Grupo Mercabañal están revolucionando la hostelería colaborativa en Valencia. A pesar de las modas, se resisten a olvidar aquello que fue bueno y útil, y disfrutan devolviendo vida a lugares, objetos y hábitos del pasado. Mercader, ubicado en las puertas del barrio del Cabañal, recupera con destreza y amabilidad un edificio con más de 100 años de historia, la antigua Tonelería Soler. Les conocí un poco por accidente en la última quedada Kapital Social en Valencia y me gustaría hoy felicitarles porque acaban de cumplir el año. ¡Mucha suerte en el camino! Índice: 2:12 Oportunidades laborales en Londres. 5:39 Make Albacete Great Again. 12:09 Montando el pollo. 22:41 Martínez duerme tranquilo sin ser propietario. 31:10 Canadian Pacific Railway. 38:35 La dificulta de ‘alocar' capital eficientemente. 46:31 El r > g de Piketty. 52:48 Capital humano. 1:00:34 El anillo como una multa. 1:04:36 Acceso a círculos exclusivos vía X. 1:09:09 Los códigos secretos de las élites. 1:13:11 The joy is in the playing. 1:22:21 I don't want to belong to any club that will accept me as a member. 1:25:27 Debes superar la prueba para acceder a la información confidencial. Apuntes: Historias de Londres. Enric González. The bear. Christopher Storer. The economic benefits of social connections. Raj Chetty. El verdugo. Luis García Berlanga. Match point. Woody Allen. El capital. Karl Marx. El capital en el siglo XXI. Thomas Piketty. Piketty y capital en el siglo XXI. Xavier Sala i Martín. Phishing for phools. George Akerlof & Robert Shiller. El libro tibetano de los muertos. Padma Sambhava.

Another jam packed show with Coach Pete D'Arruda talking about a high stakes game of Monopoly. Joe Murphy digs into a book by Robert Shiller dealing with how our emotions can actually move the market. Chris Longworth uses clips from Seinfeld that relate to planning for retirement. That and much more. Visit Financial Pizza to learn more. Check out Broadcasting Experts to find out how you can have your own podcast. Call 800-662-6808 or Text PIZZA to 600700.  Here's a link to Narrative Economics by Robert ShillerSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ready to navigate value with the experts? Strap in for a knowledge-packed episode where academic insights meet real-world financial strategies! This week, host Jeremy Houser is joined by a dynamic team of academics, consisting of Nobel Prize-winning economist Professor Robert Shiller, acclaimed author and economist Professor Jeremy Siegel, and Executive Vice President of Annexus Group, … Read More Read More

In this week's episode, Matt Robison and I delve into the essential lesson from renowned economist Robert Shiller: don't get swept away by stock market hype. Join us as we explore the implications of the Shiller PE ratio, currently standing at a lofty "34," we unpack Shiller's groundbreaking research and its practical applications for investors.With a focus on the importance of valuation and maintaining a well-diversified portfolio, we emphasize the need for specificity in financial planning, particularly as you approach retirement or set specific financial goals. Shiller's insights remind us to steer clear of short-term hype and instead prioritize long-term fundamentals, ensuring confidence and resilience in navigating market volatility. So, whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, remember to stay focused, stay diversified, and stay the course for long-term success.Are you ready to create your ideal lifestyle? Let's Connect.Learn more about Mike and my services at https://www.mortonfinancialadvice.com and connect at https://www.linkedin.com/in/mwsmorton/

Nobel laureate, Robert Shiller, believes that the U.S. stock market may have run its course for awhile. So, what should you do is he's right? You be shocked (wink) at the answer. Then, aa whole lot of listeners call in: Where should money from a property sale be kept for a future tax payment? Does it make sense to buy a little physical gold? Are money market fund yields lower than stated because of expenses? How should an early retiree invest and generate income? How can you calculate the expected future interest rates on an adjustable mortgage? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Another jam packed show with Coach Pete D'Arruda talking abouFinancial Pizza From Monopoly to Narrative Economics, it's all covered here.t a high stakes game of Monopoly. Joe Murphy digs into a book by Robert Shiller dealing with how our emotions can actually move the market. Chris Longworth uses clips from Seinfeld that relate to planning for retirement. That and much more. Visit Financial Pizza to learn more. Check out Broadcasting Experts to find out how you can have your own podcast. Call 800-662-6808 or Text PIZZA to 600700.  Here's a link to Narrative Economics by Robert ShillerSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's obviously a hierarchy of information. It ranges from life-changing good to life-changing disastrous.That got me thinking: What would be the most interesting and useful information anyone could get their hands on?Years ago I asked that question to Yale economist Robert Shiller. “The exact role of luck in successful outcomes,” he answered.I loved that answer, because nobody will ever have that information. But if you did, your entire worldview would change. Who you admire would change. The traits you think are needed for success would change. You would find millions of lucky egomaniacs and millions of unlucky geniuses. The fact that it's impossible to possess this information doesn't make it useless – just thinking about how powerful it would be to have it forces you to ponder a topic that's important but easy to ignore.Keeping the idea that the most interesting information doesn't have to be realistic – it can be impossible-to-obtain, magical-wish thinking – here are three other things that would get your attention.

Anyone in the Retire Sooner family knows how passionate Wes is about the 4 Percent Rule—William Bengen's rule of thumb that originally discovered retirees who draw down 4 percent of their portfolio in the first year of retirement and then adjust this amount yearly for inflation would likely see their money outlive them, assuming a 50 to 75 percent allocation in stocks. On today's episode, Wes discusses Dave Ramsey's recent controversial statements about doubling the number to 8 percent. You read that correctly—8 percent! Wes runs Ramsey's claims against data from Robert Shiller, an economist at the Yale School of Management, and attempts to set the record straight on how much people can safely expect to spend during retirement. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

”Pursuing expertise doggedly can't be the goal for everyone because being specialised means losing some breadth of understanding. We need both kinds of people." – In this podcast episode recorded in 2014 economist Robert Shiller speaks about technology and the role he thinks it will have in the future. He also shares his best advice for young economists and what he thinks about teaching online courses to large audiences. Together with the Nobel Prize's Adam Smith, they also discuss stage fright, and how to overcome it. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Another jam packed show with Coach Pete D'Arruda talking about a high stakes game of Monopoly. Joe Murphy digs into a book by Robert Shiller dealing with how our emotions can actually move the market. Chris Longworth uses clips from Seinfeld that relate to planning for retirement. That and much more. Visit Financial Pizza to learn more. Check out Broadcasting Experts to find out how you can have your own podcast. Call 800-662-6808 or Text PIZZA to 600700.  Here's a link to Narrative Economics by Robert ShillerSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AI is not new and financial mis-education is rife. These are two ideas that form the foundation of this episode, which features insights from Ben Felix, Mark McGrath, and guest speaker Anthony Walsh. To start our conversation, we explore the history of artificial intelligence and what it might mean for the future and beyond. During this Mark to Market segment, Mark McGrath shares his experience of owning property and becoming a landlord before we look back on Episode 155 with Don Ezra, where he revealed his thoughts on planning for life after work. Anthony Walsh, author of People Are Lying To You About Money joins us to discuss his efforts to remedy the lack of financial literacy among everyday people, how he approaches financial planning as a risk-averse person, and his move from lean FI to Coast Fi. He also shares his thoughts on the relative value of money, the importance of planning according to financial wellness and health, and more. Join us today to hear all this and so much more!    Key Points From This Episode:   (0:04:07) The cycles of AI development, excitement, and disappointment in technological history. (0:15:01) How technology bubbles impact investors and why investing in revolutionary technology is a questionable strategy.  (0:18:50) The paradox of skill and how it applies to investment strategy.  (0:23:40) Mark to Market Segment with Mark McGrath on real estate and rentals.  (0:34:50) Looking back on Episode 155 with Don Ezra on planning for life after work.  (0:37:03) Introducing today's guest: Anthony Walsh, who wrote People Are Lying To You About Money.  (0:40:17) Four types of lies people tell about money and why most people are financially illiterate.  (0:48:46) How Anthony navigates financial planning as a risk-averse person.  (0:53:25) What motivated his move from Lean FI to Coast FI and the relative value of money.  (0:55:10) The importance of planning according to financial wellness and health.  (0:57:19) The after-show; shows and series your hosts have been watching and a book recommendation.    Books From Today's Episode: Irrational Exuberance — https://www.amazon.com/Irrational-Exuberance-3rd-Robert-Shiller-dp-0691166269/dp/0691166269/ People Are Lying To You About Money — https://www.amazon.com/People-Are-Lying-About-Money-ebook/dp/B0BC9M5QQT Bubbles and Crashes — https://www.amazon.com/Bubbles-Crashes-Boom-Technological-Innovation/dp/0804793832 Links From Today's Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/ Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/ Follow us on X — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder Benjamin on X — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix Cameron on X — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Mark McGrath on X - https://twitter.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Mark McGrath on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Anthony Walsh on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/asw383/ Episode 155 — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/155 Episode 268 — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/268 Episode 244 — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/244 Reasons to Avoid Index Funds — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fvGLnthJDsg

In 2021, high school boys on TikTok were pumping meme coins and discovering (then misapplying) the concept of exponential compounding. Today, with the benefit of hindsight, we can learn a lot about what crypto's rapid rise and fall might mean about money. Plus, we're going down the rabbit hole of the competing theories about what money really is: Why do we all agree it has value? What happens if the government keeps making more of it, and is crypto the wrong solution for the right problem? Transcripts can be found at podcast.moneywithkatie.com While I love diving into investing- and tax law-related data, I am not a financial professional. I have no formal financial education. I am not a financial advisor, portfolio manager, or accountant. This is not financial advice, investing advice, or tax advice. The information on this podcast is for informational and recreational purposes only. Investment products discussed (ETFs, index funds, etc.) are for illustrative purposes only. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or otherwise transact in any of the products mentioned. Do your own due diligence. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.  Money with Katie, LLC. — Mentioned in the Episode The Future of Cryptocurrency, via The Economist: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-rCKo4CBgM&ab_channel=TheEconomist Narrative Economics by Robert Shiller: https://bookshop.org/a/90396/9780691210261 Mike Green of Simplify Asset Management: https://investresolve.com/podcasts/mike-green-the-fourth-turning-and-reimagining-the-american-dream/ Stephanie Kelton's TED Talk on the Big Myth of Government Deficits: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FATQ0Yf0Fhc — Follow Along at Money with Katie: https://moneywithkatie.com/ Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MoneywithKatie Follow Money with Katie! - Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/moneywithkatie/ - Twitter: https://twitter.com/moneywithkatie   Subscribe to The Money with Katie Newsletter - Sign up for free today: https://www.morningbrew.com/money-with-katie/subscribe/2 Follow the Brew! - Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/morningbrew/ - Twitter: https://twitter.com/MorningBrew - TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@morningbrew Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome back to the show, Brian Hirschman, Managing Partner of Hirschmann Partnership, also known as the “World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund.” Brian explains how many investors are unaware of how to value gold in comparison to other assets. He details a methodology for analyzing the gold price over long periods and notes that it is currently below the fifty year average, which could cause gold to skyrocket in the coming years. Brian outlines why gold did so well during the inflationary period of the 1970s, as it is the only asset with no counterparty risk. The lack of appreciation for gold may be due to bond investors remaining confident in their inflation expectations, but if that changes, gold will rise. High inflation can be caused by excessive debt, which is a problem for the United States and other Western nations, and Brian references the British Empire's debt to GDP ratio and eventual default. Japan's approach is different, but their situation is precarious as well, with Japanese depositors now getting negative returns when adjusted for inflation. This could lead to depositors investing elsewhere to seek returns, which could be a big problem for the Bank of Japan. Brian also discusses how global bubbles are worsening, and why we could see multiple collapses all at once. He gives some targets for where gold and the miners could head as a result, and explains why the Mining ETFs and equities have largely not kept up with the gold price. He notes that A.I. will likely not be the panacea to get us out of the coming crisis, and that demographics are contributing to entitlement problems and a general decline in the labor force, which is not good for GDP. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:30 - Perspectives & Time5:40 - Golds Recent Performance8:10 - Inflation Causes & Effects12:30 - Debt & Avoiding Default20:10 - Capital Control Contagion25:00 - Cures & Causation28:00 - Growing Global Bubbles37:30 - Gold Price Target39:30 - Resource Valuations41:20 - GDXJ Performance43:10 - A.I. & Inevitable Crisis45:30 - Demographic Issues46:55 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Gold is currently trading below its fifty year average, making it a potential investment opportunity. High inflation caused by excessive debt could lead to a gold surge. Global bubbles, demographics, and A.I. could all contribute to a coming crisis. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/HCapitalLLCWebsite: https://www.hcapital.llc Brian Hirschmann, CFA, is the Managing Partner at Hirschmann Partnership (HP) launched in 2014. Since its inception, HP has outperformed its benchmarks by a substantial margin despite being the "World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund," according to ValueWalk. Previously he was an associate at Goldman Sachs Principal Strategies (GSPS), a multi-billion dollar hedge fund whose alumni include Robert Rubin, Tom Steyer, Daniel Och, and Eddie Lampert. After GSPS, Brian returned to Los Angeles to join Hotchkis and Wiley Capital Management where he was an equity-owner and made over $1 billion in long-term investments. Brian graduated with distinction from Yale, where Professor Robert Shiller strongly influenced his investment philosophy. Robert is one of the few to predict both the dot-com and housing bubbles. Robert was also influenced by Professor David Swensen, Yale's legendary endowment manager.

Are you prepared to navigate the turbulent waters of the current housing market? We think you might not be, but don't fret! Join us in this riveting discussion with Lance Lambert, Real Estate Editor at Fortune Magazine, who dissects the unexpected resilience of the housing market amidst the pandemic and high unemployment. With his keen insight, Lance helps us unpack some critical trends, from the shocking deterioration of housing affordability equivalent to the 2006 peak, to the strategies and adaptability of home builders like DR Horton amidst material cost increases. We also delve into the precarious situation that some renters find themselves in, stretching beyond their financial limits in the face of the current affordability crisis. Lance also shares views from renowned economists like Robert Shiller, who raise an eyebrow at market exuberance and predict a sideways market in the coming months.But that's just the tip of the iceberg. We also take a hard look at the reluctance of institutional buyers to invest in homes due to unfavorable math and cap rates, and evaluate the potential impact of changing state tax policies. Join us as we traverse through the complexities of the current market by comparing it with past trends, and explore the intricate links between consumer sentiment, the stock market, and home values. Tune in and equip yourself with knowledge about the risks of fiscal measures and the vital role of income growth and rate reductions in restoring market affordability, all encapsulated in this thought-provoking episode.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at www.leadlagreport.com and use promo code PODCAST30 for 2 weeks free and 30% off.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.The Canadian Money RoadmapDiscover strategies to save, invest, and grow your money effectively.Listen on: Apple Podcasts SpotifyFoodies unite…with HowUdish!It's social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world's first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today:

(8/4/23) Digesting the Fitch Ratings downgrade: Defining "safety." The Degeneration of American Culture is accelerating; are we becoming Japan? Robert Shiller's "Narrative Encounter;" AI & Productivity: what it means for companies. Does today's workforce even have the skills to utilize AI? Why common sense must be taught (the ill-effects of pandemic lock-down).Corporate culture is a sewer. New rules for Roth in the Secure Act: They want your money now. What will be ultimate outcome of Fitch Ratings downgrade? How will Gen-X Retire (what Gen-X needs). Preview: End of Life Planning presentation; Jobs Report preview; What will be the Black Swan Event that triggers markets? Long Term Care Insurance misunderstood. SEG-1: Digesting the Downgrade; What it means to companies SEG-2: AI & Productivity & Decline of American Culture SEG-3: New Rules for Roth: They want your money now SEG-4: Misunderstanding Long Term Care Insurance Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show, on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RY6HAOJASiE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2652s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Continue to Work off Steam," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wrnCJSqPvU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Why the Fitch Ratings Downgrade Doesn't Really Matter" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NTHkQPBtaJs&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=13s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Stocks Versus Bonds: Allocating For The Next Ten Years" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/stocks-versus-bonds-allocating-for-the-next-ten-years "Bullish Measures Are Getting Really Bullish" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bullish-measures-are-getting-really-bullish ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Retirement #GenerationX #FitchRatings #Recession #Correction #Japan #CorporateCulture #BondRatings #EconomicWeakness #GovernmentDebt #Markets #Money #Investing

(8/4/23) Digesting the Fitch Ratings downgrade: Defining "safety." The Degeneration of American Culture is accelerating; are we becoming Japan? Robert Shiller's "Narrative Encounter;" AI & Productivity: what it means for companies. Does today's workforce even have the skills to utilize AI? Why common sense must be taught (the ill-effects of pandemic lock-down).Corporate culture is a sewer. New rules for Roth in the Secure Act: They want your money now. What will be ultimate outcome of Fitch Ratings downgrade? How will Gen-X Retire (what Gen-X needs). Preview: End of Life Planning presentation; Jobs Report preview; What will be the Black Swan Event that triggers markets? Long Term Care Insurance misunderstood. SEG-1: Digesting the Downgrade; What it means to companies SEG-2: AI & Productivity & Decline of American Culture SEG-3: New Rules for Roth: They want your money now SEG-4: Misunderstanding Long Term Care Insurance   Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show,  on our YouTube channel:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RY6HAOJASiE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2652s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Continue to Work off Steam," is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wrnCJSqPvU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Why the Fitch Ratings Downgrade Doesn't Really Matter" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NTHkQPBtaJs&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=13s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Stocks Versus Bonds: Allocating For The Next Ten Years" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/stocks-versus-bonds-allocating-for-the-next-ten-years "Bullish Measures Are Getting Really Bullish" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bullish-measures-are-getting-really-bullish ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Retirement #GenerationX #FitchRatings #Recession #Correction #Japan #CorporateCulture #BondRatings #EconomicWeakness  #GovernmentDebt #Markets #Money #Investing

*NEW ITEM!* Purchase my newest book! "15 Conversations with Real Estate Millionaires" https://amzn.to/3CGOWOU

Paul Lane and Marc Fandetti discuss Robert Shiller, he who called the 2008 housing bubble, stating he knows how the housing market will exit this period of exuberance. Ted Rossman, Bankrate, joins the show to chat about what Americans can do to ensure they aren't sitting on hefty gift card balances. Banks are going on a diet, cutting back on lending. ESPN held talks with the NBA, NFL, and MLB in search for a strategic partner. A soap maker has cracked the code to Made in America.

SUMMARY: Welcome to the busiest week of the summer as we prepare for home price and sales data, a fed decision, Q2 GDP first look, and inflation data.  We also break down existing-home sales from June and discuss Robert Shiller's latest comments on the housing market...SHOW NOTESThis Week: Fed Decision, GDP, & Home PricesExisting-Home Sales Fell More Than ExpectedROBERT SHILLER: A 10-year rally in U.S. home prices could be coming to an endDISCLAIMER: TowneBank Mortgage, NMLS #512138, is an equal housing lender. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Hosted by Tyler Cralle #2028201

I mercati, nonostante tutti gli ultimi avvenimenti non sempre positivo, storicamente guardano al bicchiere mezzo pieno e non in modo insensato, perché nel medio lungo periodo la maggior parte delle aziende quotate hanno dimostrato di generare profitti attraversando fasi anche avverse. Secondo l'economista Robert Shiller, gli utili reali per azione sono cresciuti a un tasso annuo del 3,5% in 150 anni. E questo spiega perché l'investimento azionario nel tempo si sia rivelato fra le forme di destinazione dei propri risparmi tra le più redditizie a patto di essere investitori pazienti, ben diversificati e non gravati da costi eccessivi, perché se l'handicap con cui si parte è notevole (e pesa ogni anno) è ben difficile gareggiare con qualche chance di successo.Uso la parola “handicap” in senso ippico, perché questo termine indica da diversi secoli quelle corse in cui i cavalli partenti vengono disposti a distanze diverse (trotto) o caricati con pesi diversi (galoppo).Se un cavallo da trotto è molto più forte degli altri lo si farà partire magari 20 metri dietro gli altri in modo che il risultato della gara resti aperto e non ci sia un vincitore “sicuro”.Nel caso dei cavalli, l'utilizzo dell'handicap ha, quindi, uno scopo buono che è quello di parificare tendenzialmente le possibilità di vittoria di tutti i partecipanti.

*NEW ITEM!* Purchase my newest book! "15 Conversations with Real Estate Millionaires" https://amzn.to/3CGOWOU

The Dow and S&P 500 notched their third straight positive session but the Nasdaq fell 0.5%. Crossmark Global's Bob Doll talks the market action and what moves he is making for his clients right now. Our Deirdre Bosa breaks news on new leadership at Lyft while Wedbush's Dan Ives joins for instant stock reaction. Mizuho Dan Dolev breaks down the ripples effects from the CFTC lawsuit against Binance for the crypto universe. Stifel'a Mark May talks the impact of SVB failure on tech M&A and IPOs. RingCentral's CEO discusses the company's new AI products. Plus, RBC's Scott Hanold on opportunities in energy, one of the worst-performing sectors YTD. And Jon Fortt eulogizes a tech legend who recently passed: Gordon Moore.  

«¡Qué cosa más increíble que un libro es! Es un objeto plano hecho de un árbol, con partes flexibles llenas de divertidos y oscuros garabatos. Pero una sola mirada y entras en la mente de otra persona, quizá alguien que murió hace ya miles de años. A través de los milenios, un autor te habla clara y silenciosamente dentro de tu cabeza, solo para ti. La escritura es, tal vez, el más grande de los inventos de la humanidad, conectando a personas que nunca se conocieron, ciudadanos de épocas distantes. Los libros rompen las cadenas del tiempo. Un libro es la prueba de que los humanos son capaces de hacer magia». El astrónomo Carl Sagan en la serie documental Cosmos.Kapital Temporada 1:K11. Boro Mas. Ganarse la vida.Ángel de segunda clase. Boro Mas.Índice:0.32. Expresar un sentimiento en cuatro precisas palabras.16.42. El poder de las narrativas.41.40. Proyectarse en Tony Soprano.53.40. La antilibrería de Umberto Eco.1.01.23. Escribir bien. Pensar bien. Hablar bien.1.13.59. Los trucos de Woody Allen.1.30.37. Las armas de Leonard Cohen.1.52.47. Última carta a Marianne.2.15.30. ¿Qué hago riéndome con un intento de suicidio?Apuntes:La verdad de las mentiras. Mario Vargas Llosa.El extranjero. Albert Camus.Narrative economics. Robert Shiller.Los hermanos Karamazov. Fiódor Dostoievski.Ana Karénina. Lev Tolstói.Los Soprano. David Chase.Breaking bad. Vince Gilligan.Mad men. Matthew Weiner.El crítico. Carlos Boyero.Premio Príncipe de Asturias. Leonard Cohen.Gravedad cero. Woody Allen.Sin plumas. Woody Allen.Cómo acabar de una vez por todas con la cultura. Woody Allen.

Today's podcast is titled, “Keynesian Economics.” Keynesian Economics w/ Prof. James Tobin, Sterling Professor Emeritus-Economics, Yale University and the winner of the 1981 Nobel Prize in Economics and Robert Shiller, Stanley B. Resor Professor of Economics, Yale University. Listen now, and don't forget to subscribe to get updates each week for the Free To Choose Media Podcast.

There are many thoughts and articles about housing bubble prediction. But, there is one person who did predict the crash of 2000 and did predict the crash of 2008. And so what does he have to say about today? Matt will walk you through Robert Shiller's article about predictions on the current housing market. Listen to this episode and find out what are similarities, but also what are differences between 2000, 2008, and 2022! BUT BEFORE THAT, Matt goes around what are contingencies in real estate and how you can use them. Are you ready? Let's go! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Robert Shiller Just Said This Is Coming To Real Estate & Home Prices https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event=video_description&redir_token=QUFFLUhqa1Zsb1plaHNwWW84TWh0eGhzVDVPdTFrMVVmd3xBQ3Jtc0ttM05XNTh4VkpMWWJ1b2JNbXZZbTdPTnRORGtYSlgxOFdVTll1aUFNS3VLTGFpQmphSTh5QXk0cVZrSGxLbzlDbW1WVXNXM2szbm12MTkyT1FJWnpUXzM1OFE1dlJwQ3hjb082MGw0anRSS3dZOTU0UQ&q=https%3A%2F%2Ffinance-yahoo-com.cdn.ampproject.org%2Fv%2Fs%2Ffinance.yahoo.com%2Famphtml%2Fnews%2Frobert-shiller-predicted-2008-housing-111730997.html%3Famp_gsa%3D1%26amp_js_v%3Da9%26usqp%3Dmq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%253D%253D%23amp_tf%3DFrom%2520%25251%2524s%26aoh%3D16601385987708%26referrer%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.google.com%26ampshare%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Ffinance.yahoo.com%252Fnews%252Frobert-shiller-predicted-2008-housing-111730997.html&v=t-u_JgwLW0w

In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Mike Greene, CEO of ResiShares, to talk about the latest trends in real estate investing. Mike and Mike discuss how investors are thinking about real estate as the market shifts, how to spot opportunities now, which global economic forces pose the biggest risks to US real estate, and more. About Mike Greene Mike Greene's fascination with the housing market began with a guest lecture in his undergrad economics class by Nobel-winning economist Robert Shiller. The lecture focused on Shiller's home price indices, which first drew attention to the possibility of liquid, geographically-based investment products. Over the past 15 years, Mike worked first as a Trader at Bocage Capital, and later at HouseCanary, where he witnessed the emergence of the single-family rental ecosystem that convinced him that the world was finally ready to see Shiller's challenge accepted. Mike is now the Founder and CEO of ResiShares, a real estate investment fund with a unique technology edge and an innovative approach to finding the best opportunities. Here's a glimpse of what you'll learn:  ResiShares' mission to make real estate a more liquid and accessible asset class Mike Greene's surprising test for what presents the best investment opportunity How ResiShares leverages data to achieve “neighborhood alpha” on their investment portfolio The biggest long-term macroeconomic risks for the housing market How real estate investment firms can help solve both the financial and social problems for housing The key trends to watch in a recessionary economy Featuring Mike Simonsen, CEO of Altos Research A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets. Resources mentioned in this episode: Mike Greene on LinkedIn ResiShares Mike Simonsen on LinkedIn Altos Research Follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights: https://twitter.com/altosresearch https://twitter.com/mikesimonsen See you next week!

Zach has a discussion with Nobel Prize winning economist Professor Robert Shiller.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of Navigating Bitcoin's Noise, I am joined by Timothy Peterson of Cane Island Alternative Advisors. To discuss the power and importance of network effects in cryptocurrencies. As the economy has transitioned to a digitized world driven by math, Metcalfe's Law has become a very important component of financial modeling and understanding its relationship to investor psychology. Tim has spent years researching and understanding Metcalf's work and how it applies to Bitcoin, financial markets, and money. If you're looking to better understand bitcoin's past and its future potential as an economic network, then join us and listen in.Resources:Noise by Fisher Black - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1986.tb04513.xThe Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver - https://www.amazon.com/Signal-Noise-Many-Predictions-Fail-but/dp/0143125087Finance: The History of Money - https://youtu.be/YCN2aTlocOwNarrative Economics by Robert Shiller - https://www.amazon.com/Narrative-Economics-Stories-Economic-Events/dp/0691182299Kane McGukinTwitter: https://twitter.com/kanemcgukinkanemcgukin.substack.comTimothy PetersonTwitter: https://twitter.com/nsquaredmacroResearch: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=2848613Cane Island Research: https://www.cane-island.digital/ | https://www.cane-island.com/

In this episode of Navigating Bitcoin's Noise, I am joined by Timothy Peterson of Cane Island Alternative Advisors. To discuss the power and importance of network effects in cryptocurrencies. As the economy has transitioned to a digitized world driven by math, Metcalfe's Law has become a very important component of financial modeling and understanding its relationship to investor psychology. Tim has spent years researching and understanding Metcalf's work and how it applies to Bitcoin, financial markets, and money. If you're looking to better understand bitcoin's past and its future potential as an economic network, then join us and listen in.Resources:Noise by Fisher Black - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1986.tb04513.xThe Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver - https://www.amazon.com/Signal-Noise-Many-Predictions-Fail-but/dp/0143125087Finance: The History of Money - https://youtu.be/YCN2aTlocOwNarrative Economics by Robert Shiller - https://www.amazon.com/Narrative-Economics-Stories-Economic-Events/dp/0691182299Kane McGukinTwitter: https://twitter.com/kanemcgukinkanemcgukin.substack.comTimothy PetersonTwitter: https://twitter.com/nsquaredmacroResearch: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=2848613Cane Island Research: https://www.cane-island.digital/ | https://www.cane-island.com/

«El proyecto bitcoin no trata de mover un millón de dólares de aquí a Tokio. Trata de mover un millón de dólares del presente al año 2140». La frase es de Michael Saylor, CEO de Microstrategy. Josu San Martin comparte el mismo optimismo desde que leyó el white paper de Satoshi. Las criptomonedas son un producto revolucionario pero todo mercado en desarrollo ofrece oportunidades de arbitraje. Josu las explota desde Sixtant, ganando dinero y haciendo que el mercado funcione de forma más eficiente.Link promocional a Kraken. Este es un podcast sobre finanzas y mi interés es el de filtrar propuestas honestas y competitivas. Si, siguiendo la recomendación de Josu, quieres empezar con una pequeña cantidad, Kraken es el exchange que yo utilizo. El mundo de las criptomonedas es fascinante pero peligroso y empresas como Kraken permiten una transacción fácil y segura. Como ya dije con François Derbaix, haz lo que quieras, siempre que no dejes el dinero en los fondos deficitarios de Caixabank.Escucha el podcast en tu plataforma habitual:Spotify — Apple — iVoox — YouTubeArtículos sobre finanzas en formato blog:Substack Kapital — Substack CardinalApuntes:Bitcoin: a peer-to-peer electronic cash system. Satoshi Nakamoto.Mastering bitcoin. Andreas Antonopoulos.Mastering ethereum. Andreas Antonopoulos.Financial Markets. Robert Shiller.El patrón bitcoin. Saifedean Ammous.El hombre que descifró el mercado. Gregory Zuckerman.Índice:0.28. Un anarcocapitalista en el Ministerio de Hacienda mexicano.19.32. Las oportunidades del sector fintech en Latam.29.40. Reserva de valor, moneda de cambio y unidad de cuenta.35.15. Silk Road y el marketplace de drogas en la deep web.51.10. Guerra total contra la supremacía del dólar.59.43. Las sagradas escrituras de Satoshi Nakamoto.1.15.40. La oportunidad de arbitraje en el bitcoin.1.46.36. El mercado de los derivados financieros.1.56.02. Not your keys, not your bitcoin.

In this episode of The Agent of Wealth Podcast, the Bautis Financial team discusses the fourth book assignment in their monthly Book Club, Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism by George Akerlof and Robert Shiller. In Animal Spirits, Nobel prize winner George Akerlof and Yale economics professor Robert Shiller assert that traditional economic theory places too much weight on quantifiable facts and not enough weight on emotion – “People have noneconomic motives. And they are not always rational in pursuit of their economic interests.”In this episode, we discuss:The five different aspects of Animal Spirits: confidence, the desire for fairness, corruption, money illusion and the importance of stories.Whether or not we believe the concept of Animal Spirits should be incorporated into macroeconomic theory.What our team liked most about the book.What our team learned and took away from the book.And more!This is the fourth episode in the Bautis Financial Book Club series. Listen to the other episodes:Episode 88 – Bautis Financial Book Club: Elon Musk – Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future by Ashlee VanceEpisode 76 – Bautis Financial Book Club: The Infinite Game by Simon SinekEpisode 75 – Bautis Financial Book Club: Atomic Habits by James ClearResources:Episode Transcript & Blog | Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism | Bautis Financial: (862) 205-5000

Mensaje de Boro: Ángel de segunda clase.Escribe David Trueba en sus memorias de juventud: «Ganarse la vida es una expresión afortunadísima que por desgracia suele contener un valor meramente pecuniario, material. Ganarse la vida tendría que ser la aspiración mayor de una persona, pero ganársela en el sentido de honrarla, de estar a la altura del regalo». Respetando esa bonita filosofía de honrarla, Boro Mas, empresario y cinéfilo, sí cree que el dinero es buen KPI para tomar decisiones vitales. Él se gana la vida creando negocios rentables.Escucha el podcast en tu plataforma habitual:Spotify — Apple — iVoox — YouTubeArtículos sobre finanzas en formato blog:Substack Kapital — Substack CardinalApuntes:La riqueza de las naciones. Adam Smith.La teoría de los sentimientos morales. Adam Smith.The pretence of knowledge. Friedrich Hayek.Information rules. Carl Shapiro & Hal Varian.The social responsibility of business is to increase its profits. Milton Friedman.Financial markets. Robert Shiller.La noche americana. François Truffaut.Ramen profitable. Paul Graham.Buddhism and modern psychology. Robert Wright.Gratitude. Oliver Sacks.Manhattan. Woody Allen.You want it darker. Leonard Cohen.Índice:0.28. El dinero es el verdadero KPI.6.49. La mano invisible en las transacciones voluntarias.27.47. Montar una empresa es como hacer una película.39.59. Intenta ser rentable para ganar independencia.45.18. La falta de dinero despierta la creatividad.56.47. El lado oscuro de la sociedad tecnológica.1.06.25. La revolución anarquista del blockchain.1.32.33. La huída hacia adelante de Walter White y Don Draper.1.37.05. Woody Allen es pesimista y por eso hace comedias.1.41.26. La paz espiritual, la iluminación, de Leonard Cohen.

After a review of month- and year-to-date bond, stock and commodity returns through May 28, Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau turn to the question of the week: how they form their outlooks for future bond and stock returns over the long term (starts at 11:30). While all models and indicators are subject to potential mistaken assumptions, certain metrics used thoughtfully can provide useful frameworks for setting long-term return expectations for asset classes. The co-hosts discuss such tools as Professor Robert Shiller's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio for stocks, Dr. Shiller's more recently developed excess CAPE yield, risk-free (U.S. Treasury) rates relative to inflation and, for bond investments, the yield-to-duration ratio, aka the Sherman Ratio, named after DoubleLine Deputy Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Sherman. Although the post-Memorial Day market week of June 1 will be an abbreviated one, Jeff and Sam note it will be charged with significant macroeconomic releases and events.

DoubleLine's Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau spend the last Friday before Tax Day (Lau: “Pay your fair share”) discussing ways to approach equity risk premia dynamics, which are used to value the equity market, for the question of the week (starts at 16:54). With help from the firm's equity team, the duo present valuations that rely on backward-looking data, discussing the work of Ed Yardeni as well as Professor Robert Shiller and the CAPE® Ratio. They also talk about the model of Professor Aswath Damodaran, which incorporates forward-looking measures. These models prompt Mayberry and Lau to caution that participating in the equity market means being exposed to market sentiment in the Era of Acronyms: FOMO (fear of missing out) and TINA (there is no alternative). They look forward to a quiet macro week while sticking by the Lau-coined wisdom: “Hold in May and stay that way.”

In today's episode of compounding lifestyle, U.S. Mixed Markets Wrap, ETH Etherium Rockets, and Safemooners Beware. U.S. equity futures retreated and Asian stocks were mixed Tuesday following weakness among the technology giants on Wall Street. The dollar rallied. The poor manufacturing data, or more so scary data, will be the reason the stock market will move if we continue to get more reports like this and similar jobs report at the end of the week. South Korean shares edged down while Hong Kong and Australia rose modestly. Trading will be limited with Japan and China among markets closed for holidays. U.S. contracts fell after the S&P 500 ended near session lows and shares such as Tesla Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. weighed on the Nasdaq 100. Ten-year Treasury yields dropped back to around 1.6% in U.S. trade amid comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that the economic recovery is patchy. How concerned should you be that the CAPE for the U.S. stock market is the highest in the world? I am referring to the cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio (CAPE) made famous by Yale University finance professor (and Nobel laureate) Robert Shiller. It is conceptually similar to the typical P/E ratio, except that instead of using trailing 12-month earnings as the denominator the CAPE uses average inflation-adjusted earnings over the trailing 10 years. The CAPE currently stands at 36.6 for the S&P 500 SPX, +0.27%, according to Shiller's latest calculations. That's higher than 98% of monthly readings since 1881, and more than double the 140-year average, suggesting an extremely overvalued market. The price of Ether is up about 12% over the past 24 hours and up around 350% year to date, according to CoinDesk. With Bitcoin, many people treat it like digital gold, arguing it's a store of value. Others use it to buy and sell things. But with Ethereum, developers use the blockchain for things like building applications and writing smart contracts. Lately, investors have been interested in non-fungible tokens (NFTs). At the risk of oversimplifying things, NFTs allow people to own unique, digital properties like digital art. And many NFTs are built on the Ethereum blockchain. Therefore, with the surging popularity of NFTs (among other things), Ethereum is being used more. Furthermore, Ether tokens make the Ethereum blockchain run, meaning they're in increasing demand. That demand is sending the price of Ether higher EBay says open to accepting cryptocurrencies in the future, exploring NFTs. I smell another bitconnect alert!! Safemooners beware of burn wallet which the developers admit they will only manually burn. Something smells fishy but I could be wrong... but with 600 trillion in circulation, it will never reach a dollar. Massive pump in dump. Get out of it. no wallet. It would have to be worth 600 trillion dollars. $ARKX $XOM $TSLA $AAL $BNGO $MARA $O $CRWD $FB $AAPL $FCEL $MGM $GOOGL $EZGO $SHOP $MTCH $DIS $PDD $ $TWTR $AMZN $EBET $PLTR $BFLY $ENZC $GM $ABNB $BUZZ $PTON $TDOC $DDD $U BTC ETH XLM Control the Cash balance today and position yourself accordingly. Let's GO!!!!! Research Links: www.Finviz.com www.Nasdaq.com Learn more about options: https://tinyurl.com/Compounding-Lifestyle Music-Footprints-Playglenthomas & Bitconnect EDM Remix - Dylan Locke Voice Mail link, show us some love, call in to ask questions: https://anchor.fm/compounding-lifestyle/message (copy/paste the URL) Robinhood link: https://join.robinhood.com/arristw DISCLAIMER: These Podcasts are for educational purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be construed as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any sort of security or investment. Consult with a professional financial advisor before making any financial decisions. Do your research and due diligence. --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/compounding-lifestyle/message Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/compounding-lifestyle/support

In our weekly summary of the best posts on the Guru Investor blog, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau discuss the original content we produced and their favorite outside articles we featured on the blog for the week ending 1/29/2020. The Posts We Discuss Where's the Beef? Where's the Value? – Validea's Guru Investor Blog Interview: Replicating Private Equity in Public Markets with Verdad's Brian Chingono (Ep. 67) – Validea's Guru Investor Blog Quants Seeing Record High Correlations – Validea's Guru Investor Blog Robert Shiller on the Narratives Driving the Market – Validea's Guru Investor Blog Find Out More About Validea https://www.validea.com Follow Jack on Twitter https://www.validea.com/practicalquant Follow Justin on Twitter https://www.validea.com/jjcarbonneau Follow Us on YouTube https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

10/03/2000 — O índice Nasdaq Composite, principal termômetro das empresas de tecnologia dos EUA, chegou aos 5.132,52 pontos, sua máxima histórica até então. Mas, de repente, tudo mudou. As empresas do índice perderam 75% do valor até o final do mesmo ano, gerando prejuízos enormes para os investidores. O episódio entrou para a história como o “estouro da bolha das pontocom” e foi precedido por um longo período de “exuberância irracional”, nas palavras do ex-presidente do Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan e do professor Robert Shiller, um dos maiores especialistas norte-americanos em bolhas. Da margem de 5.000 pontos do pregão de 10 de março de 2000, o Nasdaq perdeu mais de 5 trilhões em valor de mercado e chegou em 1.200 pontos em outubro de 2002. Naquele 10 de março de 2000, o Ibovespa caiu 1,98% para 18.280 pontos. Depois de ter obtido alta acumulada de 110% em 1999, o Ibovespa registrou perda de 18,7% em 2000, segundo dados ajustados pelo IGP-DI.Convidados:Guilherme Felitti, jornalista, apresentador do podcast Tecnocracia e fundador da empresa de dados Novelo Data; Luiz Guilherme Dias, fundador e CEO da empresa de conteúdo financeiro Sabe Invest; e Roberto Lee, cofundador e CEO da corretora Avenue Securities, que na época trabalhava como gerente de operações da Patagon.com.

Paul Donovan's Profit and Prejudice: The Luddites of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (Routledge, 2020) is a great example of what Robert Shiller has championed as narrative economics--pointing out the power and real-world economic import of stories, of narratives. In this case, Donovan highlights the cost of prejudice and how it will become even more expensive as we enter the fourth industrial revolution, a period in which human capital will be critically important to the success of any endeavor. Prejudice is bad for business and the economy, he concludes. Donovan argues for "Fighting Back"--the title of a chapter--to confront the economic cost of prejudice, but it will be an uphill battle.   Daniel Peris is Senior Vice President at Federated Investors in Pittsburgh. Trained as a historian of modern Russia, he is the author most recently of Getting Back to Business: Why Modern Portfolio Theory Fails Investors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Special guest economist Professor Robert Shiller joins Barclays Head of Research Jeff Meli to debate whether equity markets are overvalued and what role long-term investing should play during a crisis. For more insights: barclays.com/ib

Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Chief Oil Analyst, says supply recovery is likely to lag the rise in demand for oil. Valdis Dombrovskis, European Commission Vice President, says the bank consolidation process is already gradually happening in Europe. David Herro, Harris Associates Chief Investment Officer of International Equities, says the greater the spread between growth and value, the better the future looks. Robert Shiller, Yale University Professor and Nobel Laureate in economics talks about how human psychology amid the pandemic could play out in the stock market. Neysa Ernst, Johns Hopkins Hospital Department of Medicine Nurse Manager, says training the non-ICU nursing workforce to safely care for COVID-19 ICU patients has been going well. Kathy Hochul, New York Lieutenant Governor, says she is working with Governor Cuomo to rebuild a better New York City and New York State than before coronavirus. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

"Rob Black & Your Money" - Radio Show September 20 - KDOW 1220 AM (7a-9a) Rob Black talks about streaming content providers, Uber, Facebook's Libra, and chats with The Real Estate Report host Tony Mendes about Robert Shiller and Certified Financial Planner Chad Burton, host of New Focus on Wealth, discusses tips for latter 2019 and more topics covered tomorrow at San Jose's Rotary Summit Center.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Rob Black talks about streaming content providers, Uber, Facebook's Libra, and The Real Estate Report host Tony Mendes discusses Robert Shiller and investing in property for your retirement.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Rob Black talks about slowdown stocks, Bob Iger, Datadog, Toys R Us, Robert Shiller, and flexitarians.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

"Rob Black & Your Money" - Radio Show September 19 - KDOW 1220 AM (7a-9a) Rob Black talks about The Cars, Bob Iger, Datadog, Robert Shiller, and Certified Financial Planner Chad Burton, host of New Focus on Wealth, discusses budgeting, retirement, and more topics covered this Saturday at San Jose's Rotary Summit Center.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jason Hartman starts today discussing the 8th wonder of the world, compound interest. It's a truly powerful thing that makes massive differences to your portfolio. Then Jason talks with in-house economist Thomas to discuss housing payments adjusted for inflation. Thomas took Jason's first property he purchased and adjusted the payment it would have been to today's dollars to see how it correlated. The two also discuss negative yields and how much further cyclical markets have to fall. Key Takeaways: [4:43] Jason's old purchase of a mortgage note that didn't go so well, but the amount he's owed now shows the power of compound interest [7:36] An example of compound interest using 4 $100,000 homes [14:32] Robert Shiller believes we are on the verge of a recession, but Jason doesn't agree with his reasoning [18:51] Housing payments adjusted for inflation is significant [22:41] Millennials keep telling Thomas they're waiting for home prices to drop [27:07] 25% of investment grade bonds have negative yields now Website: www.JasonHartman.com/Properties