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"Embrace what it is about you that's unique and create content around that." Christian Walsh started his YouTube channel during COVID with seven subscribers. Today, Wire Associates is nearly 40,000 subscribers strong — and it has quietly become one of the most reliable lead engines in his real estate business, generating hundreds of thousands of dollars in commission income. In this episode of $tay Paid, Christian sits down with Luke Acree and Josh Stike to break down exactly how he did it. He shares why long-form YouTube is still the place to be (especially as AI starts citing it), how he carves out 20 hours a week between scripting, shooting, editing, and engagement, and why the most important call to action in any video is getting people to watch the next one. You'll hear his approach to thumbnails and titles (including the "dissonance" trick), his case for niching down hard, the pottery-class lesson on frequency, and the practical tools — Descript, Visme, ChatGPT, Canva, Elgato — that make all of it possible. Wire Associates on YouTube & The Real Estate Disclosure Podcast: youtube.com/@WireAssociates Descript —https://descript.com Visme — https://visme.co Canva — https://canva.com Altos Research — https://altosresearch.com Elgato teleprompter — https://elgato.com
Welcome back to America's #1 Daily Podcast, featuring America's #1 Real Estate Coaches and Top EXP Realty Sponsors in the World, Tim and Julie Harris. Ready to become an EXP Realty Agent and join Tim and Julie Harris? Visit: https://whylibertas.com/harris or text Tim directly at 512-758-0206. ******************* 2025's Real Estate Rollercoaster: Dodge the Career-Killers with THIS Mastermind!
Welcome back to America's #1 Daily Podcast, featuring America's #1 Real Estate Coaches and Top EXP Realty Sponsors in the World, Tim and Julie Harris. Ready to become an EXP Realty Agent and join Tim and Julie Harris? Visit: https://whylibertas.com/harris or text Tim directly at 512-758-0206. ******************* 2025's Real Estate Rollercoaster: Dodge the Career-Killers with THIS Mastermind!
What's really happening in the 2025 housing market? In this episode of The Real Wealth Show, host Kathy Fettke is joined by Mike Simonsen, founder and president of Altos Research, to break down the latest data on mortgage rates, housing inventory, and home prices. Mike shares real-time insights and expert analysis on where the market is headed, whether prices are likely to rise or fall, and what today's trends mean for buyers, sellers, and investors. Don't miss this in-depth conversation packed with actionable information to help you make smarter real estate decisions in the year ahead. Topics Discussed: 00:32 Mike Simonsen and Altos Research 03:10 Housing Inventory 04:00 Regional Housing Inventory Data 06:44 Pending Home Sales 08:34 Mortgage Rates 14:35 Sectors of Real Estate and Inventory 17:16 Is Now a Good Time to Buy? 18:49 Investor Activity
Welcome back to America's #1 Daily Podcast, featuring America's #1 Real Estate Coaches and Top EXP Realty Sponsors in the World, Tim and Julie Harris. Ready to become an EXP Realty Agent and join Tim and Julie Harris? Visit: https://whylibertas.com/harris or text Tim directly at 512-758-0206. ******************* Let's Do This. Join Tim & Julie Harris for a FREE Online Mastermind and discover how top agents are crushing the 3 biggest challenges in today's market. No fluff. All action. Real solutions you can use NOW.
Welcome back to America's #1 Daily Podcast, featuring America's #1 Real Estate Coaches and Top EXP Realty Sponsors in the World, Tim and Julie Harris. Ready to become an EXP Realty Agent and join Tim and Julie Harris? Visit: https://whylibertas.com/harris or text Tim directly at 512-758-0206. *******************
Welcome back to America's #1 Daily Podcast, featuring America's #1 Real Estate Coaches and Top EXP Realty Sponsors in the World, Tim and Julie Harris. Ready to become an EXP Realty Agent and join Tim and Julie Harris? Visit: https://whylibertas.com/harris or text Tim directly at 512-758-0206. ***************************
How are you navigating the economic chaos of the real estate market? In this episode, learn how to stay ahead of the curve with data-driven insights and understand the hyper-local nature of real estate trends. Mike Simonsen, Founder and President of Altos Research joins us and shares his expert analysis on the forces shaping the industry, from shifting inventory levels to the impact of migration trends. We explore the importance of hyperlocal data and the potential consequences of restricting access to housing information. Mike also provides his perspective on the need for transparency and the value of data-driven decision-making in real estate. Get ready for a candid and insightful conversation that will equip you with the knowledge to navigate today's market with clarity and confidence. Connect with Mike on - LinkedIn - X and follow this link to check out his blog. Article mentioned during the show: https://blog.altosresearch.com/are-we-seeing-the-first-bad-economy-sellers-in-15-years Follow this link for your Free Altos Report Check out Mike's first appearance on the show: youtu.be/s0J8964jhds Learn more about Altos Research on - LinkedIn - X - Facebook - YouTube and online at altosresearch.com. Follow Real Estate Insiders Unfiltered Podcast on Instagram - YouTube - Facebook - TikTok. Visit us online at realestateinsidersunfiltered.com. Link to Facebook Page: https://www.facebook.com/RealEstateInsidersUnfiltered Link to Instagram Page: https://www.instagram.com/realestateinsiderspod/ Link to YouTube Page: https://www.youtube.com/@RealEstateInsidersUnfiltered Link to TikTok Page: https://www.tiktok.com/@realestateinsiderspod This podcast is produced by Two Brothers Creative.
In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike gets time with HW Media CEO and HousingWire publisher Clayton Collins to talk about the latest HousingWire Data company announcements, and explores the most important trends, people, and ideas driving our industry in 2025. About Clayton Collins Clayton Collins is the Chief Executive Officer of HW Media, the leading media and information services company for housing and real estate professionals. As Publisher of HousingWire, he drives the company's mission to empower housing leaders with trusted journalism, proprietary data, and industry-leading events. Since acquiring HousingWire in 2016, Clayton has led HW Media's transformation into a multi-brand platform, expanding its reach through the acquisitions of RealTrends and Altos Research. Under his leadership, HW Media delivers critical market intelligence, data-driven insights, and high-impact events that inform and connect professionals across housing finance and real estate. Here's a glimpse of what you'll learn: What is HousingWire Data, and what does it mean for our clients The three big themes shaping the industry in 2025 Who's making the biggest moves in the industry—and why it matters How the mortgage and housing landscape has evolved over the past decade (and where it's heading next) Which topics get the most attention on HousingWire.com each day and why. Related to this episode: HousingWire Data Mike Simonsen | LinkedIn Altos Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos A true data geek, Mike founded Altos in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets. Follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights: Altos on Twitter Mike on Twitter About Altos. Each week, Altos tracks every home for sale in the country - all the pricing, and all the changes in pricing - and synthesizes those analytics to make them available before becoming visible through traditional channels. Schedule a demo to see Altos in action. You can also get a copy of our free eBook: How To Use Market Data to Build Your Real Estate Business. The Top of Mind podcast features top real estate industry insiders and experts to unpack the most important housing, real estate, mortgage data and trends that are shaping the housing market. Hosted by Altos founder Mike Simonsen and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio.
Inventory is rising. New listings are coming in faster than they have since before the pandemic. And while sales are ticking up for spring, price cuts are surging—pointing to flat or even falling home prices in the months ahead. In today's episode, we break down the latest Altos Research data for March. Read the Altos Research article here: https://blog.altosresearch.com/are-we-seeing-the-first-bad-economy-sellers-in-15-years Subscribe to the BiggerPockets Channel for the best real estate investing education online! Become a member of the BiggerPockets community of real estate investors - https://www.biggerpockets.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Talk or type with our new Team Bot: https://realestateteamos.com/botVerified rankings of the top agents and teams in your city, state, or nation - that's what RealTrends works to produce every year.Go inside the rankings to learn how it works. What's the difference between and agent and a team (it's not as easy as you might think)? What's the difference between a large team and a mega team? How do you verify the results? Why would I participate?Note: you may already be participating through your brokerage and, if you're not, you have until April 9 to submit your 2024 results for inclusion. Mark Adams, SVP of HousingWire Real Estate Group, is deeply involved in both Altos Research and RealTrends, and is here to break it all down for you. He also shares some benchmarks and trends they're seeing in the size, productivity, and profitability of real estate teams.Watch or listen for insights into:- How an individual's experience and success on a team are up to them- What HW Media is (HousingWire, Altos Research, RealTrends) and how he became part of the team after 8 years in the mortgage industry- The symbiotic relationship between real estate and mortgage- The role of research and market intelligence in better decision making- The purpose and background of the RealTrends rankings of brokerages (since 1997) and agents and teams (since 2006)- How they plan to triple from the top 1.5% to the top 5% of agents and teams this year (from 21k to 60-70k) and how you can participate (by April 9, 2025)- How they verify the results- The two criteria the separate a team from an agent and the differences between small, medium, large, and mega teams- The average team size, average units, and average volume of teams- Adding city rankings to the national and state rankings- Thoughts on units vs volume- Benefits of being in the rankings (from SEO to recruiting)- How building the operating system behind this project relates to building the operating system behind your real estate business- The slingshot effect in many real estate teams right nowAt the end, learn about Dallas Stars, European travel, and bookworm coworkers.Participate in the 2025 rankings: - https://www.realtrends.com/realtrends-submissions/Episodes mentioned:- Mike Simonsen: https://www.realestateteamos.com/episode/mike-simonsen-altos-research-real-time-data- Daniel Dixon: https://www.realestateteamos.com/episode/daniel-dixon-lighthouse-real-estate-agents- George Laughton and Billy Hobbs: https://www.realestateteamos.com/episode/profitability-durability-real-estate-team-george-laughton-billy-hobbs- Anthwon Thomas: https://www.realestateteamos.com/episode/preserving-profit-margin-real-estate-team-anthwon-thomas- Jonathan Campbell: https://www.realestateteamos.com/episode/how-to-drive-per-agent-productivity-jonathan-campbellResources mentioned: - https://housingwire.com- https://altosresearch.com- https://realtrends.comReal Estate Team OS:- https://www.realestateteamos.com- https://linktr.ee/realestateteamos- https://www.instagram.com/realestateteamos/ Talk or type with our new Team Bot: https://realestateteamos.com/bot
Welcome to How's the Market, our weekly look at what's happening in the US housing market, powered by data from Altos Research. If you want to see all the inventory, pricing, and supply and demand charts we reference in the show, head on over to our YouTube channel at https://youtube.com/altosresearch. Hosted by Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research.A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.
In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Adam Carmel, CEO and founder of Polly, to talk about mortgage technology and the mortgage markets. About Adam Carmel Adam Carmel is the founder and CEO of Polly, a true mortgage technology trailblazer. Adam founded Polly in 2019 to build a vertically integrated mortgage platform. Here's a glimpse of what you'll learn: The remarkable story of why and how he started Polly His leadership strategies in these volatile markets How he leads a mortgage technology company and doesn't let mortgage rates into the decision process Why the cost of loans has risen from $2,000 to $12,000 and how Polly aims to bring it all the way back down The incredible opportunity for AI and how consumer and mortgage cost wins are already here with AI in the mortgage process What the Polly data says about the opportunity for lenders in 2025 Scenarios of what could happen to the mortgage market if we privatize Fannie and Freddie How to think about America's 30-year fixed rate mortgage market and how it might evolve Related to this episode: Polly Adam Carmel | LinkedIn Mike Simonsen | LinkedIn Altos Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets. Follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights: Altos on Twitter Mike on Twitter About Altos Research The Top of Mind Podcast is produced by Altos Research. Each week, Altos tracks every home for sale in the country - all the pricing, and all the changes in pricing - and synthesizes those analytics to make them available before becoming visible through traditional channels. Schedule a demo to see Altos in action. You can also get a copy of our free eBook: How To Use Market Data to Build Your Real Estate Business. The Top of Mind podcast features top real estate industry insiders and experts to unpack the most important housing, real estate, mortgage data and trends that are shaping the housing market. Hosted by Altos founder Mike Simonsen and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio.
Welcome to How's the Market, our weekly look at what's happening in the US housing market, powered by data from Altos Research. If you want to see all the inventory, pricing, and supply and demand charts we reference in the show, head on over to our YouTube channel at https://youtube.com/altosresearch. Hosted by Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research.A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.
Welcome to How's the Market, our weekly look at what's happening in the US housing market, powered by data from Altos Research. If you want to see all the inventory, pricing, and supply and demand charts we reference in the show, head on over to our YouTube channel at https://youtube.com/altosresearch. Hosted by Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research.A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.
In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Jason Waugh, president of Coldwell Banker Affiliates, to talk about how the real estate brokerage business is changing in 2025. Jason shares insights from CB's 100,000 agents, the latest findings from CB's Global Luxury Trends report, and how the agent-consumer relationship is changing after the dramatic real estate commissions settlements of 2024. About Jason Waugh Jason Waugh is president of Coldwell Banker Affiliates for Coldwell Banker Real Estate. where he runs the brand's marketing, franchise sales and operations teams for 100,000 real estate sales professionals in more than 2,700 offices across 39 countries. Here's a glimpse of what you'll learn: What it's like running an iconic real estate brand in 2025 The latest findings from CB's Global Luxury Trends report Notable demographic trends for luxury real estate buyers How agent/homebuyer relationships are changing after the commission lawsuits Which consumers continue to choose full-service/full-price real estate services Which markets are noticing commission compression Insights on today's unique commercial real estate trends Related to this episode: Coldwell Banker Affliates Jason Waugh | LinkedIn Mike Simonsen | LinkedIn Altos Research Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets. Follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights: Altos on Twitter Mike on Twitter About Altos Research The Top of Mind Podcast is produced by Altos Research. Each week, Altos tracks every home for sale in the country - all the pricing, and all the changes in pricing - and synthesizes those analytics to make them available before becoming visible through traditional channels. Schedule a demo to see Altos in action. You can also get a copy of our free eBook: How To Use Market Data to Build Your Real Estate Business. The Top of Mind podcast features top real estate industry insiders and experts to unpack the most important housing, real estate, mortgage data and trends that are shaping the housing market. Hosted by Altos founder Mike Simonsen and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio.
Welcome to How's the Market, our weekly look at what's happening in the US housing market, powered by data from Altos Research. If you want to see all the inventory, pricing, and supply and demand charts we reference in the show, head on over to our YouTube channel at https://youtube.com/altosresearch. Hosted by Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research.A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.
Welcome to How's the Market, our weekly look at what's happening in the US housing market, powered by data from Altos Research. If you want to see all the inventory, pricing, and supply and demand charts we reference in the show, head on over to our YouTube channel at https://youtube.com/altosresearch. Hosted by Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research.A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.
In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Julie Kheyfets, CEO of Block Renovation, to talk about what's happening with home renovations this year and beyond. About Julie Kheyfets Julie Kheyfets is the CEO of Block Renovation, the AI renovation platform empowering homeowners and contractors to build better together. Block's AI delivers instant cost, scope, and design guidance tailored to each homeowner, powered by proprietary data from thousands of projects. By accessing Block's vetted network of contractors, homeowners can discover the right professionals for their projects, rapidly receive easy-to-compare proposals, and hire with confidence, backed by Block's project protections. Before being appointed CEO, Julie served as Block's COO, steering Block's operations as the company evolved from a one-stop shop for renovations to an AI marketplace platform. Julie brings a strong track record of scaling AI to help consumers in complex industries. Before joining Block, she built and led the North America business for Tractable, the AI platform for accident and disaster recovery. During Julie's tenure, Tractable became the world's first computer vision unicorn for financial services. Here's a glimpse of what you'll learn: How to match consumers with contractors Why so much of the difficulty in remodeling are “problems of information” The surprising relationship between interest rates and remodeling Block's unique demand renovation demand data and what it's telling us about the market right now How changes to the immigration system will impact the remodeling industry Why productivity in construction has not improved in 50 years and why that is about to change Trends in AI that homeowners should pay attention to Why AI and information have the potential to dramatically improve the consumer relationship with the contractor The most important demographic trends and what they tell us about the home renovation market over the rest of the decade Which local markets are the leaders and laggards in renovation Related to this episode: Julie Kheyfets | LinkedIn Block Renovation Mike Simonsen | LinkedIn Altos Research Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets. Follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights: Altos on Twitter Mike on Twitter About Altos Research The Top of Mind Podcast is produced by Altos Research. Each week, Altos tracks every home for sale in the country - all the pricing, and all the changes in pricing - and synthesizes those analytics to make them available before becoming visible through traditional channels. Schedule a demo to see Altos in action. You can also get a copy of our free eBook: How To Use Market Data to Build Your Real Estate Business. The Top of Mind podcast features top real estate industry insiders and experts to unpack the most important housing, real estate, mortgage data and trends that are shaping the housing market. Hosted by Altos founder Mike Simonsen and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio.
Welcome to How's the Market, our weekly look at what's happening in the US housing market, powered by data from Altos Research. If you want to see all the inventory, pricing, and supply and demand charts we reference in the show, head on over to our YouTube channel at https://youtube.com/altosresearch. Hosted by Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research.A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.
Welcome to How's the Market, our weekly look at what's happening in the US housing market, powered by data from Altos Research. If you want to see all the inventory, pricing, and supply and demand charts we reference in the show, head on over to our YouTube channel at https://youtube.com/altosresearch. Hosted by Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research.A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.
Home prices are showing signs of weakness for the first time since early 2023, with one in three listings seeing price cuts. Could this be the start of a broader price correction? In this episode, we break down the latest data from Altos Research, revealing why sellers are lowering prices, where inventory is growing, and whether 2025 could finally bring more affordability to homebuyers. Plus, we explore the impact of high mortgage rates, sluggish home sales, and what the “one bright spot” in the market means for the year ahead. Tune in for everything you need to know about the shifting housing market! Subscribe to the BiggerPockets Channel for the best real estate investing education online! Become a member of the BiggerPockets community of real estate investors - https://www.biggerpockets.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Dr. Orphe Divounguy, senior economist with Zillow's Economic Research team, to talk about what's on the horizon for the housing market this year. Orphe shares the latest findings from Zillow's 2025 forecasts, offers some surprising insights from Zillow's rental data, gives us a framework for understanding mortgage rates and affordability in the U.S., and much more. About Dr. Orphe Divounguy Orphe Divounguy is a senior economist with Zillow's Economic Research team where he analyzes economic data to try and identify emerging trends in the housing market. In the past, Orphe's work focused on quanÏtitative methods for evaluating the impact of economic policy. Orphe earned a doctorate in economics from England's University of Southampton. Orphe is also the founder of the Quantitative Research Group and the co-host of the Everyday Economics podcast. The team's research can be found at zillow.com/research and includes analyses about for-sale and rental market dynamics, fair housing, and other topics. Zillow also provides dozens of housing market datasets freely available for download at zillow.com/data. Here's a glimpse of what you'll learn: Details from Zillow's 2025 housing market forecasts: mortgage rates, home sales and home prices How American homeowner wealth helped stave off recession and what it means for the housing market in 2025 The most important macro economic trends to watch now and what they mean for real estate this year Surprising insights from Zillow's rental data on trends in apartments and single family rentals, and what to expect in the near future. Which local markets to watch in 2025 and why Smart thinking on the affordability crisis, how it's changing and how we might find our way out Resources mentioned in this episode: Zillow Housing Data Orphe Divounguy| LinkedIn Mike Simonsen on LinkedIn Altos Research Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets. Follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights: Altos on Twitter Mike on Twitter About Altos Research The Top of Mind Podcast is produced by Altos Research. Each week, Altos tracks every home for sale in the country - all the pricing, and all the changes in pricing - and synthesizes those analytics to make them available before becoming visible through traditional channels. Schedule a demo to see Altos in action. You can also get a copy of our free eBook: How To Use Market Data to Build Your Real Estate Business. The Top of Mind podcast features top real estate industry insiders and experts to unpack the most important housing, real estate, mortgage data and trends that are shaping the housing market. Hosted by Altos founder Mike Simonsen and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio.
Welcome to How's the Market, our weekly look at what's happening in the US housing market, powered by data from Altos Research. If you want to see all the inventory, pricing, and supply and demand charts we reference in the show, head on over to our YouTube channel at https://youtube.com/altosresearch. Hosted by Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research.A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.
Welcome to How's the Market, our weekly look at what's happening in the US housing market, powered by data from Altos Research. If you want to see all the inventory, pricing, and supply and demand charts we reference in the show, head on over to our YouTube channel at https://youtube.com/altosresearch. Hosted by Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research.A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.
In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Bill McBride from Calculated Risk to talk about what to expect in the housing market in 2025 and beyond. About Bill McBride Bill McBride is a housing market expert and the author of the popular economics blog and newsletter “Calculated Risk”, which Nobel laureate economists have cited as a “go-to website for housing matters.” Bill may be best known for accurately predicting the housing bubble in 2005, and the bottom in housing prices in early 2012. Here's a glimpse of what you'll learn: Why the US housing market faces “seven years of purgatory” Why inventory is more important than sales numbers for understanding the housing market The market stat that Bill is watching this year and what it tells us to expect Why mortgage rates will be stuck above 6% for a while What's on the horizon for recessions, inflation, and employment in 2025 and what it all means for the real estate market How to measure home prices and what to expect for 2025 Why investors are less impactful in 2025 than they were a few years ago How to spot a brewing financial crisis The longer-term impact of changing demographics How to view the affordability crisis and what's likely to happen A look at the 2030 housing market Resources mentioned in this episode: text Mike Simonsen on LinkedIn Altos Research Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets. Follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights: Altos on Twitter Mike on Twitter About Altos Research The Top of Mind Podcast is produced by Altos Research. Each week, Altos tracks every home for sale in the country - all the pricing, and all the changes in pricing - and synthesizes those analytics to make them available before becoming visible through traditional channels. Schedule a demo to see Altos in action. You can also get a copy of our free eBook: How To Use Market Data to Build Your Real Estate Business. The Top of Mind podcast features top real estate industry insiders and experts to unpack the most important housing, real estate, mortgage data and trends that are shaping the housing market. Hosted by Altos founder Mike Simonsen and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio.
Welcome to How's the Market, our weekly look at what's happening in the US housing market, powered by data from Altos Research. If you want to see all the inventory, pricing, and supply and demand charts we reference in the show, head on over to our YouTube channel at https://youtube.com/altosresearch. Hosted by Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research.A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.
On today's episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Mike Simonsen, president of Altos Research, about the two big housing market trends to watch in 2025. Related to this episode: The two big housing market trends to watch in 2025 | HousingWire HousingWire | YouTube More info about HousingWire Enjoy the episode! The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate stories. Hosted and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Welcome to How's the Market, our weekly look at what's happening in the US housing market, powered by data from Altos Research. If you want to see all the inventory, pricing, and supply and demand charts we reference in the show, head on over to our YouTube channel at https://youtube.com/altosresearch. Hosted by Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research.A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.
Welcome to How's the Market, our weekly look at what's happening in the US housing market, powered by data from Altos Research. If you want to see all the inventory, pricing, and supply and demand charts we reference in the show, head on over to our YouTube channel at https://youtube.com/altosresearch. Hosted by Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.
It's the season for housing market predictions, and we know who to call! Altos Research and HousingWire's Mike Simonsen joins the show to share where his team thinks mortgage rates, home prices, housing inventory, and buyer demand will be in 2025. Every year, the HousingWire team puts together a phenomenal housing market forecast, touching on the topics investors, agents, lenders, and housing nerds care about while recapping the wildest surprises of the year prior. Will mortgage rates finally fall below six percent in 2025? Will home prices dip with housing inventory up a substantial percentage year-over-year? And could agents and lenders finally get some relief with home sales, or will we still see sluggish purchasing and buyer activity? Not to spoil it, but Mike is optimistic about the 2025 housing market and what will come over the next twelve months. Mike breaks down each prediction and what could affect YOU the most, whether you're buying or selling homes. Plus, he shares the one metric his team is watching carefully to see which direction the 2025 housing market is headed. In This Episode We Cover: HousingWire's 2025 housing market forecast and 2024 housing market recap The mortgage rate range you can expect over the next twelve months Home price growth and exactly how much the HousingWire team expects in 2025 Why housing inventory is starting to climb again (and whether it will continue in 2025) One metric Mike and his team are paying very close attention to in 2025 The market's reaction to the 2024 election and President-Elect Trump's win And So Much More! Links from the Show Ashley's BiggerPockets Profile Tony's BiggerPokckets Profile Join BiggerPockets for FREE Real Estate Rookie Facebook Group Real Estate Rookie YouTube On the Market Altos Research HousingWire's 2025 Housing Market Forecast Check Out "On the Market" Get Ready to Invest in 2025 with Dave's Book, “Start with Strategy” Find Investor-Friendly Lenders 2025 Housing Market Predictions (+ How'd We Do Last Time?) Connect with Dave Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/rookie-503 Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jason welcomes Mike Simonsen of Altos Research. Mike discusses real estate trends, noting increased inventory leading to higher sales. Despite higher mortgage rates, demand persists, with 2.8 to 7.7 million more buyers qualifying as rates drop. This surge could strain inventory, creating a competitive market. Simonsen emphasizes the need for sustained higher rates to restore pre-pandemic inventory levels. Jason Hartman underscores the market's importance for the broader economy, highlighting the stimulus from home purchases. Both foresee continued demand, especially if rates decrease, but caution about potential supply shortages amid heightened buyer interest. https://www.altosresearch.com/ Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class: Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com
In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Guy Berger, Director of Economic Research at the Burning Glass Institute, to talk about “The Great Stay”: how the lack of mobility in an otherwise strong labor market is impacting the housing market About Guy Berger Guy Berger is a macroeconomist with expertise in US labor markets, and currently serves as the Director of Economic Research at the Burning Glass Institute. He was previously the Principal Economist at LinkedIn, and has also worked as an economist at Bank of America and the Royal Bank of Scotland. His work includes the creation of novel economic indicators, the development of models linking the macroeconomy to business performance, and the design of economic reports. His commentary has been featured frequently in the media, including the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, CNBC, Bloomberg, Yahoo! Finance and Axios. Guy holds a doctorate in economics from Yale University. Here's a glimpse of what you'll learn: What is “The Great Stay” economy with the labor market and housing? Why stagnation in jobs means fewer home sales and why fewer home sales means fewer job openings How companies are hoarding labor like Americans are hoarding real estate When will this Great Stay era end? How the labor market will change with reduced immigration and which sectors will be hit the hardest Will the Fed pivot in 2025 to growing employment or will we still be fighting inflation? The most important demographic trends to consider in the next few years Outlook for the future of jobs in America with big trends like AI and remote work Resources mentioned in this episode: The Burning Glass Institute Guy Berger | LinkedIn Mike Simonsen on LinkedIn Altos Research Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets. Follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights: Altos on Twitter Mike on Twitter About Altos Research The Top of Mind Podcast is produced by Altos Research. Each week, Altos tracks every home for sale in the country - all the pricing, and all the changes in pricing - and synthesizes those analytics to make them available before becoming visible through traditional channels. Schedule a demo to see Altos in action. You can also get a copy of our free eBook: How To Use Market Data to Build Your Real Estate Business. The Top of Mind podcast features top real estate industry insiders and experts to unpack the most important housing, real estate, mortgage data and trends that are shaping the housing market. Hosted by Altos founder Mike Simonsen and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio.
Welcome to How's the Market, our weekly look at what's happening in the US housing market, powered by data from Altos Research. If you want to see all the inventory, pricing, and supply and demand charts we reference in the show, head on over to our YouTube channel at https://youtube.com/altosresearch. Hosted by Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.
On today's episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research, about returning to a more normal housing market and the data signals he's paying attention to as we head into 2025. Related to this episode: Will 2025 finally be a ‘normal' housing market? | HousingWire HousingWire | YouTube More info about HousingWire Enjoy the episode! The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate stories. Hosted and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Welcome to How's the Market, our weekly look at what's happening in the US housing market, powered by data from Altos Research. If you want to see all the inventory, pricing, and supply and demand charts we reference in the show, head on over to our YouTube channel at https://youtube.com/altosresearch. Hosted by Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.
In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Daren Blomquist from Auction.com to talk about the state of the distressed housing market. About Daren Blomquist Daren Blomquist is vice president of market economics at Auction.com. In this role, Blomquist analyzes and forecasts complex macro and microeconomic data trends within the marketplace and industry to provide value to both buyers and sellers using the Auction.com platform. Daren's reports and analysis have been cited by thousands of media outlets — including all the major news networks and leading publications such as The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times and USA TODAY. Daren has been quoted in hundreds of publications and has appeared on many national network broadcasts, including CBS, ABC, CNN, CNBC, FOX Business and Bloomberg. Here's a glimpse of what you'll learn: What their investor activity tells us about housing demand right now What their leading indicators say about home sales in 2025 The surprising trends with distressed borrowers in 2024 Which states have distressed and foreclosure levels approaching 2019 (it's not what you'd think) Which states have 80% fewer foreclosures now than in 2019 The notable new demand trends for distressed property buyers in 2024 The #1 reason their clients aren't buying homes The leading indicators in their data and what it tells us about 2025 The new phenomenon of “Foreclosure Spin Cycle” and what it means for American homeowners Daren's bearish forecast for home prices in 2025 and 2026 Resources mentioned in this episode: Daren Blomquist | LinkedIn Auction.com Mike Simonsen | LinkedIn Altos Research Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets. Follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights: Altos on Twitter Mike on Twitter About Altos Research The Top of Mind Podcast is produced by Altos Research. Each week, Altos tracks every home for sale in the country - all the pricing, and all the changes in pricing - and synthesizes those analytics to make them available before becoming visible through traditional channels. Schedule a demo to see Altos in action. You can also get a copy of our free eBook: How To Use Market Data to Build Your Real Estate Business.
Welcome to How's the Market, our weekly look at what's happening in the US housing market, powered by data from Altos Research. If you want to see all the inventory, pricing, and supply and demand charts we reference in the show, head on over to our YouTube channel at https://youtube.com/altosresearch. Hosted by Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.
It's the season for housing market predictions, and we know who to call! Altos Research and HousingWire's Mike Simonsen joins the show to share where his team thinks mortgage rates, home prices, housing inventory, and buyer demand will be in 2025. Every year, the HousingWire team puts together a phenomenal housing market forecast, touching on the topics investors, agents, lenders, and housing nerds care about while recapping the wildest surprises of the year prior. Will mortgage rates finally fall below six percent in 2025? Will home prices dip with housing inventory up a substantial percentage year-over-year? And could agents and lenders finally get some relief with home sales, or will we still see sluggish purchasing and buyer activity? Not to spoil it, but Mike is optimistic about the 2025 housing market and what will come over the next twelve months. Mike breaks down each prediction and what could affect YOU the most, whether you're buying or selling homes. Plus, he shares the one metric his team is watching carefully to see which direction the 2025 housing market is headed. In This Episode We Cover HousingWire's 2025 housing market forecast and 2024 housing market recap The mortgage rate range you can expect over the next twelve months Home price growth and exactly how much the HousingWire team expects in 2025 Why housing inventory is starting to climb again (and whether it will continue in 2025) One metric Mike and his team are paying very close attention to in 2025 The market's reaction to the 2024 election and President-Elect Trump's win And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Find Investor-Friendly Lenders Dave's BiggerPockets Profile On The Market Podcast 269 - 2025 Housing Market Predictions (+ How'd We Do Last Time?) Altos Research HousingWire's 2025 Housing Market Forecast Get Ready to Invest in 2025 with Dave's Book, “Start with Strategy” Jump to topic: (00:00) Intro (01:05) Biggest Surprise of 2024 (03:17) Housing Inventory Up 27%! (08:42) American Migration Freezes (12:57) 2025 Mortgage Rates (16:46) More Homes on the Market? (18:20) Post-Election Housing Market Changes (27:08) Home Price Forecast (27:49) One Thing to WATCH Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-274 Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Welcome to How's the Market, our weekly look at what's happening in the US housing market, powered by data from Altos Research. If you want to see all the inventory, pricing, and supply and demand charts we reference in the show, head on over to our YouTube channel at https://youtube.com/altosresearch. Hosted by Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.
Welcome to How's the Market, our weekly look at what's happening in the US housing market, powered by data from Altos Research. If you want to see all the inventory, pricing, and supply and demand charts we reference in the show, head on over to our YouTube channel at https://youtube.com/altosresearch. Hosted by Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.
In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst at HousingWire, to talk about his predictions for 2025. Logan looks at inventory challenges, offers his take on what to expect with mortgage rates, and gives his forecast for prices, home sales, and more. He also shares which signals we should be watching for shifts in the market in the coming year. About Logan Mohtashami Logan Mohtashami is a renowned expert in the mortgage and housing ecosystem, recognized for his insightful analysis and commentary on the U.S. economy and real estate market. Mohtashami is a lead analyst for HousingWire and is a regular contributor on the HousingWire Daily podcast. With a background spanning over two decades in the mortgage industry, Mohtashami — nicknamed “The Chart Guy” — has the remarkable ability to decipher complex economic data and translate it into understandable, actionable insights. This knowledge has made Mohtashami a sought-after commentator and his expertise has been featured extensively in news outlets, including CNBC, where he is a frequent guest. Here's a glimpse of what you'll learn: How the housing market at the end of 2024 has fundamentally changed Where his forecasts for 2024 missed and where he got it right Logan's forecasts for mortgage rates, home sales, inventory, and home prices in 2025 Which macroeconomic factors are the most important to watch for housing in 2025 What to watch for with the Fed in the coming year Who is at risk and who has strength in today's housing economy One insightful factor buoying home buyers today What's on the horizon for real estate in the second half of the decade Resources mentioned in this episode: Logan Mohtashami | HousingWire Mike Simonsen | LinkedIn Altos Research Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. The company now serves the largest Wall Street investment firms, banks, and tens of thousands of real estate professionals around the country. Mike's insights on the market have been featured in Forbes, New York Times, Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, Seattle PI, and many other national media outlets. Follow us on Twitter for more data analysis and insights: Altos on Twitter Mike on Twitter About Altos Research The Top of Mind Podcast is produced by Altos Research. Each week, Altos tracks every home for sale in the country - all the pricing, and all the changes in pricing - and synthesizes those analytics to make them available before becoming visible through traditional channels. Schedule a demo to see Altos in action. You can also get a copy of our free eBook: How To Use Market Data to Build Your Real Estate Business.
Welcome to How's the Market, our weekly look at what's happening in the US housing market, powered by data from Altos Research. If you want to see all the inventory, pricing, and supply and demand charts we reference in the show, head on over to our YouTube channel at https://youtube.com/altosresearch. Hosted by Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.
Welcome to How's the Market, our weekly look at what's happening in the US housing market, powered by data from Altos Research. If you want to see all the inventory, pricing, and supply and demand charts we reference in the show, head on over to our YouTube channel at https://youtube.com/altosresearch. Hosted by Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.
On today's Talk Your Book, we are joined by Mike Simonsen, Founder and President of real estate analytics firm Altos Research to discuss how easy to access real estate data has affected buyers, the effects rates have on buyers and sellers, a realistic scenario for a housing market correction, thoughts on the iBuyer phenomenon, and much more! Find complete show notes on our blogs... Ben Carlson's A Wealth of Common Sense Michael Batnick's The Irrelevant Investor Feel free to shoot us an email at animalspirits@thecompoundnews.com with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation. Check out the latest in financial blogger fashion at The Compound shop: https://www.idontshop.com Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material discussed has been provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as legal or investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security or strategy. The investment strategy and themes discussed herein may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial situation. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable though its accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Skyrocketing rates, shrinking affordability: The U.S. housing market is a mess. It's also a bit of a mystery. Why are prices still sky-high, even though many measures of demand are weak? If the supply of new homes is nearing a historic high, how come the inventory for existing homes is close to a historic low? Today's guests agree that this is one of the weirdest housing markets in recent history. Mike Simonsen, president founder of Altos Research, and Lance Lambert, cofounder and editor-in-chief of Residential Club, join to talk about the state of the U.S. housing market—what makes it ugly, what makes it weird, and what would have to happen to make it better. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at PlainEnglish@Spotify.com. Host: Derek Thompson Guests: Mike Simonsen & Lance Lambert Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Do you ever wish you had a crystal ball to see where the housing market is headed? I know I do. And while there's no such thing as a perfect forecast, there are some key data points we can watch to get a pulse on what's coming. That's why I'm so excited to have Mike Simonsen on the show today to get his insights on… …the current housing trends, the leading indicators that are most predictive, and what it all means for the market in 2025 and beyond. As a real estate investor, this is an episode you won't want to miss… Mike is the founder of Altos Research, a firm that tracks every home for sale in the country and provides real-time market data. In our jam-packed conversation, he pulls back the curtain on: The most important leading indicators to watch for shifts in the market Why housing affordability can remain low for extended periods in some markets (and what that means for prices) The surprising reason why this recession could have less impact on housing than most Why a drop in interest rates could lead to a surge in buyer demand and lift us out of a recession Why the next recession could look a lot different from 2008 when it comes to housing (and how to position yourself accordingly) Plus, Mike also reveals the one chart that makes a housing correction seem inevitable… …and the compelling case for why it may not play out that way. So whether you're actively investing or just trying to time your next purchase… …this episode will give you the high-level insights and ground-level tactics you need to navigate this complex market. Take Control, Hunter Thompson Resources mentioned in the episode: Mike Simonsen Twitter Website YouTube LinkedIn Interested in investing with Asym Capital? Check out our webinar. Please note that investing in private placement securities entails a high degree of risk, including illiquidity of the investment and loss of principal. Please refer to the subscription agreement for a discussion of risk factors. Tired of scrambling for capital? Check out our new FREE webinar - How to Ensure You Never Scramble for Capital Again (The 3 Capital-Raising Secrets). Click Here to register. CFC Podcast Facebook Group
Get our free real estate course and newsletter: GRE Letter Apartment construction is falling. It's not because banks are pulling back from lending. Projects aren't feasible for builders. Housing market intelligence analyst Rick Sharga returns to discuss the real estate market. We discuss: real estate price movement, affordability concerns, expected mortgage rate changes, migration, price reductions, new homes vs. existing homes. Can anyone even find a new-build $225K detached SFH today? They're nearly extinct. Homebuilders are still buying down mortgage rates for you into the 4%s and 5%s at GREmarketplace.com. America needs more SFHs, especially at the entry-level. Apartment rents have declined a little. SFH rents are up about 3% year-over-year. Delinquency and foreclosure activity remains low. These have a strong correlation with unemployment rates. The volume of homes sales should increase this year, but only by perhaps 10%. A recession is still quite possible later this year and expected to be mild. Every region of the nation is currently experiencing residential RE price growth. When mortgage rates fall, more new buyers than sellers are expected, pushing up property prices. Resources mentioned: Show Page: GetRichEducation.com/496 Inquire about business with Rick: CJPatrick.com Rick Sharga on X: @ricksharga LinkedIn: Rick Sharga For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold Complete episode transcript: Keith Weinhold (00:00:00) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Tons of new apartments were built last year, but that's abruptly going to change going forward. You'll learn why. Then a housing market intelligence analyst and I break down what's happening in the real estate market and the future direction of rents, prices, foreclosures, interest rates, and a lot more today on get Rich education. When you want the best real estate and finance info. The modern internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls. And you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies. Disclaimers are at no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple. Text GRE to 66866. And when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course completely free. Keith Weinhold (00:01:16) - It's called the Don't Quit Your Day Dream letter and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text GRE to 66866. Text GRE 266866. Corey Coates (00:01:34) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education. Keith Weinhold (00:01:50) - Welcome to grow from Alexandria, Egypt, to Alexandria, Virginia, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, holding your inside get rich education. I'm grateful to have you here. A few weeks ago, I discussed all the apartment buildings that were constructed last year. One thing that you'll often hear out there today is that apartment construction is now falling because banks are pulling back on construction lending. But no, it's really not quite that simple. In fact, that's not even the top reason for construction delays now and going forward with apartments. The number one reason for the delays today is that the project is not economically feasible at this time. That's what the NMC tells us. All right. So what does that really mean? Well, it means that projects aren't penciling out. Keith Weinhold (00:02:44) - In other words, apartment developers, they can't generate the returns that they need to justify the project to their capital partners, those that are funding the building. And this is, by the way, not about greedy developers, because contrary to some of the noise, it's the fact that developers do not self-fund their projects. They get the money from others. So yeah, it's the developer's job to convince investors and lenders to inject that capital. And that is just harder to do right now. Despite developer's best efforts and higher rates are obviously still contributing to the problem. It's not so much that the construction financing is not available, because for residential, it's often there. It's available. The thing is, is that apartment mortgage terms and rates are way less favorable than they were a couple of years ago, as we all know. So developers, I mean, they're paying a higher interest rate then. And you therefore need higher rent to cover that higher interest rate unless you can cut a lot of costs elsewhere and in apartments, you're also getting a lower loan to value ratio. Keith Weinhold (00:03:55) - So that means developers, they therefore need to raise even more equity in order to cover that gap. And what's happened is a lot of the equity that's shifted away from brand new ground up apartment development, and instead it's gone over into chasing potential lease up distressed deals, properties that are already out there and are having some problems. So that's where the apartment money is moving right now. Not so much to new developers and builders also aren't building many apartments this year because construction costs remain a problem. Some materials got cheaper, others didn't. One bright spot is that construction labor that is getting easier to find. But yet the actual labor cost that really hasn't dropped. Property insurance is higher too, so these rising expenses, that means apartment projects are not penciling out for builders and then apartment rents. They're just not rising that much. That doesn't help. So it's hard for it to rise, since so many were built last year and the year before. They're in the apartment world. But obviously the long term demand is for just about all residential housing. Keith Weinhold (00:05:11) - That demand. Is there loads of long term demand for apartments, condos, single family homes, co-ops, modular homes, mobile homes, duplexes, triplexes, fourplex container homes, row houses, farmhouses, penthouses, outhouses. I think you get the idea. The demand is there. Residential is the resilient spot, and it's all about where you want to get in. And speaking of homebuilders and finding a smart place to get in, it's important to share with you the good news that homebuilders are still buying down your interest. Right for you. Now the third year rate, it hit 8% last year. And Non-owner occupied property costs a little more. So it was nearly 9% on income property. It's come down off that as we know it's been around seven lately. But see here at GREwe work with builders that are still buying down your interest rate into the fives and sometimes still into the fours on new construction, single family homes, up to four plex and sometimes larger in Florida, Alabama and elsewhere. I mean, that is just the best deal going for you today to have an income producing new build property in the path of growth at 4 to 1, leverage to 5 to 1 leverage and. Keith Weinhold (00:06:46) - Your mortgage in the fives or less, and we'll help you find the real deals within that. To connect with a great investment coach at great marketplace.com. I think you'll be glad you did. Now, today, if somehow I could use a time machine to write a letter back to my 2020 self and inform myself about what's going to happen in the housing market for the next 4 or 5 years? And I had to keep this note to myself short. I would have written that everything is going to shoot way up, rents up, prices up, interest rates up, expenses up, inflation up. Well, now that nearly all of those run ups have settled into place, we can draw a clearer picture of where we think the real estate market is going to be positioned in the future. Our guest has just freshened things up and he's got the latest in the property market all updated for us. I do two with my own research. You'll like this. It's our housing intelligence analyst guests and I. Straight ahead. Keith Weinhold (00:07:55) - I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get Rich education. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns, or better than a bank savings account, up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love. How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to 66866. Role under the specific expert with income property, you need Ridge Lending Group and MLS for 256 injury history from beginners to veterans. Keith Weinhold (00:09:15) - They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge. Personally, they'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. Kristin Tate (00:09:42) - This is author Kristin Tate. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your day dream. Keith Weinhold (00:09:59) - Hey what has not been a very long goodbye. Just like last week when we discussed the economy this week we have the return of the C.J. Patrick Company's Rick Sharga, an extraordinary housing intelligence analyst, as we more specifically cover the real estate market. And if you're on video, you'll have the benefit of seeing some charts as well. Rick. Welcome back. Good to be back, Keith. Long time no see. Yeah, it hasn't been so long. What are your overall thoughts with the housing market? Last week we largely talked about a resilient economy potentially with some headwinds. Yeah we did. Keith Weinhold (00:10:32) - And I think we're one of the things we left off on was the impact that the Federal Reserve had had on the mortgage market and the housing market. We probably start there. When you look at what's gone on, and just to show you how random all of this can feel sometimes this is a snapshot of mortgage rates from March 12th. And mortgage rates were trading at about 6.92% for a 30 year fixed rate loan. Rick Sharga (00:10:56) - The most recent number I saw was about 7.1%. And as I mentioned to you and your listeners last time, I expect until the Federal Reserve makes its first fed funds rate cut, we're going to see mortgages trade right around 7% between 6.75 and 7.25%. This has made a big difference in the market because it has limited affordability for literally millions of prospective home buyers. That's makes for a difficult situation for people looking to buy or sell homes, but it also presents millions of rental property opportunities because these people need to live somewhere and they've voted themselves off the island temporarily. They just can't afford to buy a house. Rick Sharga (00:11:41) - And you see that in terms of the reduction in number of mortgage applications that are being made. So if the Mortgage Bankers Association tracks the number of people that apply for loans, if you went back to December when mortgage rates dipped just a little bit, we saw a run up of loan applications, and as soon as they went back up to seven, we saw that number fall off. It's a very, very rate sensitive market. We'll talk a little bit about some of the implications of that as we move ahead, Keith. But the weak affordability, the higher interest rates, the continuing high home prices led to a very, very weak year in 2023. In terms of overall home sales, we ended the year with about 3.9 million existing homes sold. That's the lowest number of homes sold in a year in a quarter century. Yeah, even lower than we saw in the Great Recession. And December was the 28th consecutive month where we sold fewer properties than we sold the year before. Keith Weinhold (00:12:39) - So a contraction in the number of sales, although prices appreciated last year. Rick Sharga (00:12:44) - Yeah, we'll talk about that this year. I'd been hopeful that we'd be a little bit of a better start. January and February were both up in terms of home sales on a month over month basis, but continued this trend of lower sales on a year over year basis. We're looking at 30 consecutive months where we sold fewer properties than we sold the prior year. As a result of this. Keith Weinhold (00:13:05) - Supply crash, that really began about four years ago. Rick Sharga (00:13:08) - It's partly supplied as partly costs, that affordability. We really can't overestimate the impact that affordability has had. But you're right in terms of inventory and in fact, a good segue, it's almost like you'd seen this before, Keith. Inventory is up significantly from last year, about 24% higher than it was a year ago, according to some data from Altos Research. But it's still only running about half of 2019 levels. So in a normal market, we would have about a six month supply of homes available for sale in our market today, we're looking at somewhere between two and a half and three months supply. Rick Sharga (00:13:44) - That lack of supply with some pent up demand is one of the reasons we have seen prices continue to be very healthy, and we haven't seen the the price crash that all the snake oil salesmen on YouTube comments. As of mid-March, about 513,000 homes available for sale, again, about 24% higher. Than last year when the numbers were just dismal. We normally do see more inventory coming to market this time of year. We'll not get anywhere near where we were back in, you know, years like 2019, 2020. But it wouldn't be a surprise to see a little bit more inventory coming to market. Keith Weinhold (00:14:21) - Now, Rick, for existing properties, we have the very well documented interest rate lock in effect. I think a lot of people understand that. But as far as bringing more supply onto the market, do you see anything from the builder side? You know, costs are up for builders and builders feel this lack of affordability from the buyer market as well. So therefore that motivates them to build somewhat less. Keith Weinhold (00:14:43) - And they're also building smaller properties, some shrinkflation with new construction property to try to help out with that affordability. So what are your thoughts with builder motivations this year and next year? Rick Sharga (00:14:54) - All that thought is we're going to get to new homes in just a couple of minutes. So keep that right forefront in mind. But let's just kind of wrap up on existing sales. I do want to point out to your listeners that the inventory growth is actually outpacing the number of new listings. So new listings are only up about 14% year over year, whereas overall inventory is up 24%. The reason for that is it's taking longer to sell homes once they get to market. So once those properties are listed, they're staying in the inventory numbers a little bit longer than they were last year or even a few months ago. So that's one of the reasons the inventory numbers look a little bit better than they did. You talked about the rate lock effect. It's still very real. About two thirds of everybody with a mortgage has a mortgage rate of 4% or less. Rick Sharga (00:15:43) - And this is not home sellers being picky or having a psychological problem. This is math. If you sell a property today and buy a new one for exactly the same price as the one you just sold, you've now doubled your monthly mortgage payment and most people simply can't afford to do that. So the properties being listed or by by people who feel like they need to sell, there's a death in the family or a birth in the family. There's a divorce or there's a marriage. There's a job loss or job that requires a transfer, maybe some financial difficulties where the borrowers in distress so they feel like they have to sell the home, or somebody's been retired for a long time, has a lot of equity, and just says, oh the heck with it. It's time for me to downsize. But the people who would normally be making a decision that maybe I'd like to sell, maybe I'd like to look at a move up opportunity. Those people are sitting on the sidelines and rather than seeing a price crash, which is what people are breathlessly trying to sell you on YouTube, the most likely scenario, something we've seen play out in the 80s and 90s and is likely to play out again in the 2020s, which is several years of kind of lackluster sales volume and modest price growth. Rick Sharga (00:16:54) - And it takes a few years to reset the levels so that all those people with the Sub4 mortgages gradually, slowly work their way out of inventory and are replaced by people with mortgages that are closer to today's rates. And we've seen that happen, like I said, in the 80s and 90s, and it's a very normal occurrence when you have a sudden shift in either mortgage rates or home prices, that's much more likely to happen than a 2030 40% drop in home prices to make things affordable. And I would just ask anybody who's skeptical, if somebody approached you tomorrow and you didn't have to sell, but they said, hey, sell me your house for 40% less than market value. How interested would you be in having that conversation? Keith Weinhold (00:17:36) - Wouldn't last long. Rick Sharga (00:17:37) - No. And then home prices are up in every region. You mentioned this, Keith. Across the country I'm sharing for people that can see it. I'm sharing data from the Fhfa, which is the entity that controls Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. So all of those 30 year fixed rate conventional loans and a year over year basis, we saw prices go up 6.3%. Rick Sharga (00:17:56) - They were up in every region of the country. And that's a little different than the prior year when the Pacific region was actually down. But every region of the country is seeing price growth right now. And whichever price index you look at Case-Shiller,, Freddie Mac, the Fhfa index, National Association of Realtors, everybody showed similar numbers were every region was up. But importantly for your listeners and I emphasize this enough, local results are very different than national results. So even within markets where we're seeing prices go up, there are going to be neighborhoods where prices are going down and vice versa. So it's much more important for you to understand what's going on in your local market than to listen to a lot of these national trends. I will tell you that some of the markets that overheated during the pandemic, as people were moving out of high priced, high tax or highly congested areas, are seeing a bit of a clawback. So places like Boise, Idaho and Saint George's, Utah and Austin and Phoenix and Las Vegas, we're seeing those markets with the prices clawing back a little bit, a lot of price growth continuing the southeast. Rick Sharga (00:19:04) - So and surprisingly now in the Midwest as well. So we are still seeing a bit of a migration from high price, high tax areas into lower priced markets. I tell folks, Keith, I have two adult kids living at home. My son's getting married in September. He's a teacher. His fiance is a lawyer, and they took me aside recently and said, hey, you follow this stuff. What states should we be looking at outside of California to move so that we can own a house? Keith Weinhold (00:19:31) - Wow, that is really, really interesting that that would dictate their decision on where they live, if they have that much of a preference to own rather than rent. Recently, a lot of us in the industry learned that the average age of the first time homebuyer is now 36, older than ever. Rick Sharga (00:19:48) - Yep. And these are two kids with good heads on their shoulders. They know there are benefits to homeownership, and they also know that the median price of a home sold in California last month was almost $800,000, and the First National Bank of dad ain't financing that acquisition. Rick Sharga (00:20:02) - So I'm sure these conversations are happening in New York, in Chicago, in Miami and in San Francisco, and it's just the reality of today's marketplace. We talked about prices going up. We are seeing slightly more homes having a price reduction before they're sold. That always happens somewhere along the lines of 30 to 35% of homes listed wind up with a price reduction before they're sold. We're up to about 31% now, so we're still in the normal range, but we're a little higher than we've been in recent months. Keith Weinhold (00:20:35) - This is interesting, a statistic we don't talk about very much, the percent of homes experiencing list price reductions. Rick Sharga (00:20:42) - And it peaked in 2022. The highest number we've seen in quite a while was over 40%. And that was right after interest rates doubled. And so it's probably not a huge surprise. People were anticipating they were pricing based on the prior market. And I think we're seeing more rational pricing today. But again, that combination of prices just being as high as they are and interest rates being as high as they are, are creating some affordability issues. Rick Sharga (00:21:05) - And for people that have to sell, they're taking price reductions. Now, keep in mind these price reductions are often very, very minimal. In California, for example, the average price reduction is less than a percent. So it's not a huge reduction, but it's still a reduction from what the list price was. You asked about new homes. So now I'm going to make you happy. We'll talk about new homes. New home inventory levels are increasing. We normally want to see about a six month supply of existing homes for sale. The new home inventory is usually between 7 and 8 months. And we're back to that number right now. Some of those homes available for sale are still under construction, but they are nonetheless available for sale. And we've seen that inventory improve over the last year as supply chain disruptions have minimized as builders are now more able to find laborers for construction. Those are two huge holdups they had over the last couple of years, and we've seen new home sales increase. And one of the reasons for that is they're available. Rick Sharga (00:22:05) - So if you're a builder and you put a home in the market at the right price, you're going to sell it because there just aren't that many existing homes available for sale. And to your other point, Keith, new home prices are actually down 15% from peak. Existing home prices are up, new home prices are down. And in fact, if you look at the most recent new home pricing data put up by the Census Bureau recently, new home prices are at the lowest level since June of 2021. So they've really come down pretty significantly and are not that far away from existing home prices in many markets. So that median price of an existing home and the median price of a new home for sale are closer than they've been in years, partly because the builders are building smaller homes, partly because you're using less expensive fixtures. And the other thing that the builders have been doing, and this price is a lot of people, but it's brilliant on their part, is they're coming to closing with thousands of dollars and they're paying down mortgage rates. Rick Sharga (00:23:01) - They're buying points and dropping the mortgage rate for their buyers. I spoke to a group in Denver recently where there was a local builder advertising mortgage rates of 4.99%. So think about that. Keith Weinhold (00:23:13) - We have providers we work with here that are doing similar things. We're still seeing the rate buy downs happening, and that's why I've often told people, Rick, like, this is potentially a good time in the cycle when you're adding more rental property to really look at new builds or build to rent while these rate buy downs last. Now, I talked to a builder in Houston yesterday, and I learned a few interesting things. You talked about the smaller square footages. They could confirm that often times this builder offers either a bedroom or a study. You can get an extra bedroom or a study like a little office space. And more and more people are opting for the study. So they're starting to build homes more with the study in mind because more people are working from home and one less bedroom because people are having fewer children. Rick Sharga (00:23:57) - Exactly right. It's the combination of both of those two things, either having fewer children or having them later. And many more people working from home than they were prior to the pandemic. And those studies become very, very useful., rooms to have in the house. Rick, what. Keith Weinhold (00:24:12) - Is the lowest cost, new build, single family home that you see? I mean, is anyone even building in any parts of the nation, like a 225 K new build home? I haven't seen one. Rick Sharga (00:24:26) - I haven't seen one. But I wouldn't be surprised if you're in a market in a state like Alabama or Mississippi and some of the more outlying areas, maybe some markets in the Midwest where home prices aren't as astronomical as they are elsewhere. But look, the builders are building judiciously. They're not overbuilding., we had a cycle in 2008 where we had a 13 month supply of homes available for sale and building Irish building. They got caught with overstock. But what they are building, they tend to build as move up homes because they're more profitable. Rick Sharga (00:24:58) - So you're just not seeing an awful lot of entry level homes being built. And the hope is that as they build that first move up level home, some of the people with entry level homes will opt to sell and bring some of that inventory back to market. We are seeing more construction. We are seeing building permits,, going up on a year over year basis., most recent numbers are around 1.5 million permits. So the builders are bullish on the future. And housing starts were up in both January and February. Most importantly they're up most strongly in single family owner occupied homes. We're seeing housing starts to decline dramatically in terms of multifamily starts, right. But that's because there's about a million new apartment units coming online between last year and this year. And we don't need a whole lot more apartments., we need,, more single family homes. So if your listeners are seeing headlines talking about housing starts being lower, it's really because we're seeing fewer multifamily starts. Keith Weinhold (00:25:54) - Last year was a big year for multifamily construction. Rick Sharga (00:25:57) - All time high in terms of multifamily units under construction. And a lot of those are still coming to market this year. There are going to be some markets that are actually still oversupplied. So again, you have to be paying very close attention. When we talk a little bit about the rental market in the apartment category, we have seen apartment rents decline year over year in pretty much all categories. Whether you're looking at studio apartments, one bedroom apartments, two better apartments on a year over year basis, rents are actually in negative territory, according to Realtor.com and according to some data I've recently seen from RealPage. If you're looking at the actual price of rent and I know that's a little different than percentage increases or decreases, you're still seeing that rents about it's below peak. It's about 1.6% below the peak we hit in 2022,, when vacancy rates were just about nothing. But we are still below peak, and the median rent is ranging,, somewhere in the neighborhood of $1,700 a year for apartments, single family homes, which I suspect more of your listeners are actually,, renting out than apartments. Rick Sharga (00:27:03) - Yes. Are doing better. We're seeing year over year rents continue to grow. They're growing modestly. They have not gone into negative territory, and they haven't,, during this boom and bust cycle that we've seen in the housing market. And if you're looking at,, price gains, according to some recent data from CoreLogic, if you're at the higher end of the single family rental market, prices are up about 3% year over year. At the low end, they're up about 2.9%. So very little difference depending on your price tier and also very little difference depending on whether you're looking at an attached single family residence or,, detached family single family residence. All those are up right around 3% year over year. And that's a good sign. Again, you're dealing with a as your your listeners know, you're dealing with a slightly different tenant in a single family home than you are in a, an apartment. And a lot of these people who would have been buyers or opting to rent stands to reason that,, they'd rather rent a house, particularly if it's in a good school district or in a good neighborhood than an apartment, because they have needs. Keith Weinhold (00:28:06) - Rents are extremely stable historically. They just sort of plod up slowly. What happened about two years ago, three years ago, with that 15% plus rent increase, that's an aberration. Rick Sharga (00:28:19) - Yeah, that's a good point, Keith. If we're looking at 3% rental growth year over year right now in the single family rental market that tracks with historic normals, usually you're somewhere between 1 and 5% a year. So threes, you know, smack dab in the middle of all that. And the growth rates also vary wildly by markets., just kind of give you a range if you're looking at a single family rental property in Honolulu, in the city, year over year, you're up about 6%. If you're looking at a unit in Miami, Florida, you're down about 2.5%. Keith Weinhold (00:28:50) - So rental growth rates. Rick Sharga (00:28:52) - Rental growth rates. So really just depends on where you are. That's pretty much your range from a couple points down to I think Honolulu actually had the largest,, increase in the CoreLogic study. A lot of your listeners are probably interested in buying foreclosure properties. Rick Sharga (00:29:07) - We're not seeing a lot of foreclosure activity. Still, we are starting to see a little weakness in consumers. When we met last week, we talked a little bit about the strength of consumer spending, but we also talked about increasing amounts of spending on credit cards. And we're seeing consumer delinquency rates increase in pretty much every aspect of consumer lending, whether it's a loan, whether it's a credit card debt, whether it's an auto loan, whether it's a home equity line of credit, whether it's a mortgage, a mortgage, delinquencies are up a little bit. The only category we're not seeing an increase in delinquencies right now is student loans. And my theory on that is that people have only recently had to start making payments again on student loans, and we don't have any data to show that they're going delinquent yet. But the delinquency numbers we need to take with a grain of salt, because many of them are most of them are early stage delinquency. So somebody missed a payment, but then they catch up before they get 60 or 90 days delinquent. Rick Sharga (00:30:02) - But we are seeing trends that suggest more delinquencies. And if you have more delinquencies, that leads to more foreclosures. Mortgage delinquency rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, went up to about 3.8% in the fourth quarter, the historic average going back to the 1970s, which is as far back as the NBA goes, is about 5.25%. So we're still way below normal levels of delinquencies. As I mentioned, most of those are early stage delinquencies, and they're being resolved before they get more serious. Because of that, we don't have a lot of foreclosure activity. So this is no longer Keith government intervention. It's no longer government forbearance programs and foreclosure moratoriums. It's the fact that the economy's been so strong. Unemployment rates have a very strong correlation to mortgage delinquency rates. We got together last time I mentioned the unemployment rate was at 3.9%. I just told you that word delinquencies are at 3.8. Can't get much closer than that. And because of that, foreclosure activity is still down almost 30% from where we were in 2019 prior to the pandemic. Rick Sharga (00:31:07) - And I should point out, the 2019 wasn't a particularly big year for foreclosures either. So I don't see us getting back to pre-pandemic levels of foreclosure activity until sometime next year. And what's important for people in this space to understand is that even though we're seeing roughly the same number of delinquencies that we saw back in 2019, fewer of those delinquent loans are going into foreclosure. Fewer of those foreclosures are getting as far as the auction, and even fewer of those are going back to the banks as REO properties or bank owned properties. Keith Weinhold (00:31:40) - Delinquency occurs before foreclosure. We have low levels of both, and I would imagine that one substantial reason for that are these low fixed rate payments that so many people have. Minutes ago, you showed us that 90% of those with a mortgage have a rate in the fives or less. And then oftentimes when we talk about these sorts of things, we don't even consider the fact that more than 4 in 10 homeowners are free and clear. They don't have any mortgage at all. So it's difficult for people to get in trouble. Rick Sharga (00:32:10) - Yeah. And when they do get in trouble, what's really a saving grace for a lot of these people? And I believe the reason we're seeing fewer foreclosure auctions and bank repossessions is that there's $31 trillion in homeowner equity in the market, and 90% of borrowers in foreclosure have positive equity. A huge percentage of those have at least 20% equity. So what's happening interesting is that many, many of these borrowers are protecting their equity by selling their home before the foreclosure sale. If they get to foreclosure sale, they run the risk of losing all their equity, or at least the overwhelming majority of their equity. Keith Weinhold (00:32:48) - That's a great point with how this really works. Rick Sharga (00:32:50) - And so if you're looking to buy a distressed property, if you're looking to buy a foreclosure property, you really need to be working directly with the homeowner in the earliest stages of foreclosure rather than waiting for the auction. And certainly rather than waiting for the bank to repossess the home and resell it. And some recent data from a friend of mine@auction.com tracking some numbers from Adam Data. Rick Sharga (00:33:15) - 55% of the distressed properties that were sold through from June through to September of last year were sold in that pre foreclosure period prior to the foreclosure auction. That's wildly different than we've been in in years past. So really important for anybody looking to buy distressed property, to consider moving upstream and working directly with that homeowner. And it's a win win. You can help that homeowner protect their equity, have some cash to make a fresh start with and, and typically buy a home in pretty good condition and a home that you need to be part of your rental portfolio. So just kind of recapping some of the stuff we talked about, Keith, both today and last week, I still think that from an economic standpoint, there's still at least a good possibility we might have a short, mild recession sometime later this year. I don't see unemployment going much higher than 5%. Even if we do have a recession, if we don't have a recession, we'll only see the economy slowed down a bit. It might be hard to tell the difference. Rick Sharga (00:34:10) - I'm expecting the volume of home sales to go up. I think we bottomed out in 2023, but not by a lot. Maybe we see a 10% lift over last year, which would take us to roughly 4.4 million existing homes. I wouldn't be surprised to see 700,000 new homes sold, really just depends on how quickly builders bring inventory to market. But if I'm right and mortgage rates go down slowly over the second half of this year, we'll see more home buyers come to market more quickly than sellers. We don't see a lot of sellers come to market until we get interest rates down to about 5.5% or lower, which probably won't happen until 2025. So more buyers coming to market than sellers means the prices will continue to go up. We continue to see investors account for 25 to 30% of all residential purchases. So I think we'll continue to see a higher rate, partly because investors are active, partly because a lot of consumers are waiting for market conditions to improve, but that limited affordability in today's market conditions, I really do think means more demand for rental units. Rick Sharga (00:35:14) - And I think foreclosure activity stays below normal levels for the rest of this year, and REO inventory bank repossessions are going to remain even lower for even longer. I don't think we see REO activity come back to more normal levels for at least a couple of years, so anybody looking to buy these properties really does need to be moving upstream in order to make those purchases. Keith Weinhold (00:35:34) - Yeah, with low affordability, hence more demand for rentals. I've already noticed that the homeownership rate, which is somewhat of a trailing number here, has already fallen from 66% to 65.7%. And with low affordability, it seems that that homeownership rate could fall even more, meaning the rate of renters would be higher. Rick Sharga (00:35:54) - A friend of mine always complains that the government's somehow beside behind all of these trends, one way or the other, and and wonders why, with all the government programs aimed at increasing homeownership, we haven't seen that homeownership rate increase much. And I think sometimes things said to the natural level and our homeownership rate, really for the last 30 years, has been somewhere between 64% and 66%. Rick Sharga (00:36:19) - And that might just be what the natural level for homeownership is in the United States. Will it dip a little bit as people can't afford to buy a house? Probably. Probably will. When market conditions improve for buyers, will it go up a little bit? Probably. But we hit 70% homeownership back in 2006. And it turned out that was the bad number and that not everybody's ready financially for the kind of commitment that homeownership requires. And so I've always said that the key isn't getting everybody into a home. It's the sustainability of homeownership for people that that we do get into that house. One of the best days of your life is when you get the key to that house, and it has to be one of the worst days if you have to give it back. So I hope we all keep that in mind as we move forward. Keith Weinhold (00:37:03) - That's right. Government incentives is in the past saying there's a $10,000 first time homebuyer tax credit. Oh, we're not in an era where we need help. On the demand side, all you're doing is driving up prices. Keith Weinhold (00:37:14) - And I don't know that you're helping out anybody in that case. But I think with really overall, one big takeaway here, Rick, is that if you the listener, if you're waiting for prices to drop substantially sometime or for interest rates to drop substantially sometime, that might not be worth the wait. You could be waiting a long time. Rick Sharga (00:37:32) - I do expect mortgage rates will decline. I don't really go back to the sub for rates we saw a few years ago, but they're going to decline slowly and they may not decline enough to offset rising home prices. I mean, you have to get your calculator out and and figure out how that math works for you. But you're absolutely right, Keith. And I tell people today, even with mortgage rates being where they are, if you find a house you love or you find a house that's a good investment and you pencil it out and the numbers work, don't wait because the opportunity costs can be severe and you could wind up missing out on a property that could either be a good cash flow unit for you on rental, or it could be a property that you wind up living in for the next 30 years. Rick Sharga (00:38:13) - So don't be afraid of today's market. Just be very prudent and judicious in the way you approach it. Keith Weinhold (00:38:19) - Well, Rick, get resuscitation of followers and the nation have been a beneficiary of your housing market intelligence expertise for quite a while now. If someone wants to engage with you in the CJ Patrick Company, who are those types of people and how could you help? Rick Sharga (00:38:36) - I appreciate the opportunity. Most of the companies I work with or companies that provide services to lenders, anybody who has a business that's in the real estate or financial services markets, who would benefit from my coming in to share with them industry data, or has data themselves that they would like to get out into the marketplace? Anything data related really, I tend to specialize in. So market updates and market overviews and market. Analysis or things that I do on a pretty much daily basis for companies. Keith Weinhold (00:39:07) - How can they engage with you? Rick Sharga (00:39:08) - They can find our website, which is C.J. patrick.com. They can find me on Twitter. I hide there under my name, Rick, or reach out to me on LinkedIn. Rick Sharga (00:39:17) - And if you reach out to me on on a social media channel, make sure that you mention you know me through Keith, and you're not some crazy Russian bot trying to hack into my personal information. Keith Weinhold (00:39:27) - Well, then, Rick, it's been great having you back on the show. Rick Sharga (00:39:30) - I'm sure we'll do it again sometime soon. Thanks for having me. Keith Weinhold (00:39:39) - Yeah, terrific Intel there. In this episode, Rick said that to still expect a lower amount of sales going forward and expect modest property price appreciation. Every region of the nation is seeing price growth now. And by the way, you remember that late last year, I unveiled Gray's home price appreciation forecast for this year, stating that prices should rise 4% and here in Q2, I still like how that looks. There is not much distress with current homeowners, but if you're looking to scoop up a foreclosed property cheap, you better get aggressive and work directly with the homeowner in the earliest stages of foreclosure. Don't wait for that property to go to auction. Rick also said more demand for rental units is coming, and I encourage you to engage with Rick. Keith Weinhold (00:40:30) - Let him know you heard about him through me. If you want to go deeper and engage with some of the services that he offers, perhaps you work for a real estate company or a demographic company. You can do that at C.J. patrick.com. But most of you, the listener is an individual investor. So check him out on X where his handle is Rick Sharga. He is Rick Sharga on LinkedIn. Big thanks to Rick Sharga today. Until next week I'm your host, Keith Wild. Don't quit your daydream. Speaker 5 (00:41:04) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively. Keith Weinhold (00:41:32) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.
Housing inventory has shot up over twenty percent year-over-year. So, are our low inventory struggles finally behind us? During the low interest rate days, housing inventory couldn't keep up with demand. Within days of posting a listing, properties had already gone under contract, and buyers could no longer bid. But now, with higher interest rates, we're finally starting to see a return to “normal,” but a rate cut could take us back to scarce inventory in an instant. So, is now the time to buy? Mike Simonsen from Altos Research joins us on this BiggerNews episode to give an update on housing inventory. Mike's team tracks every home for sale in the country every single week and has been doing so for almost two decades. Today, he gives us the most recent data on homes for sale, why inventory is rising, the states that are seeing the most inventory hit the market, and whether or not we can expect to return to pre-pandemic inventory levels. Plus, for those debating waiting it out for lower mortgage rates, Mike shares exactly how rates will affect housing inventory and why waiting could throw you back into the bidding wars once rates drop again. Mike even discusses the data behind price cuts and when you can expect sellers to start accepting lower bids. In This Episode We Cover: A housing inventory update and why more inventory is finally starting to hit the market What happens to housing inventory if interest rates fall or rise Florida, Texas, and other southern states that are seeing a surge in housing inventory Why most investors are wrong about price cuts What must happen if we're to see inventory rise back to pre-pandemic levels The one thing buyers and sellers should know if they're waiting for rates to fall And So Much More! Links from the Show Find an Agent Find a Lender BiggerPockets Youtube Channel BiggerPockets Forums BiggerPockets Pro Membership BiggerPockets Bookstore BiggerPockets Bootcamps BiggerPockets Podcast BiggerPockets Merch Join BiggerPockets for FREE Learn About Real Estate, The Housing Market, and Money Management with The BiggerPockets Podcasts Get More Deals Done with The BiggerPockets Investing Tools Find a BiggerPockets Real Estate Meetup in Your Area Expand Your Investing Knowledge With the BiggerPockets Books Be a Guest on the BiggerPockets Podcast Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Dave's Instagram BiggerPockets' Instagram The Housing Market “Signals” That Predict Where We're Headed w/Mike Simonsen HousingWire CEO: This Inventory Shortage Could Last Decades Hear Dave on The “On the Market” Podcast Watch Dave on the “On The Market” YouTube Channel Connect with Mike Altos Research Mike's LinkedIn Mike's X/Twitter Click here to listen to the full episode: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/real-estate-925 Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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